ATI Inc (ATI) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to ATI's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Lydia, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) I'll now hand you over to Dave Western, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 ATI 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫莉迪亞，今天我將成為你們的接線生。 （操作員指示）我現在將您交給投資者關係副總裁 Dave Western。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to ATI's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Today's discussion is being webcast online at atimaterials.com. Participating in today's call to share key points from our first quarter results are Bob Wetherbee, Co Chair and CEO; Kim Fields, President and COO; and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 ATI 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的討論將在 atimaterials.com 上進行線上網路直播。聯合主席兼執行長 Bob Wetherbee 參加了今天的電話會議，分享了我們第一季業績的要點； Kim Fields，總裁兼營運長；執行副總裁兼財務長唐紐曼 (Don Newman)。

Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook that can also be found on our website at atimaterials.com.

在開始我們準備好的演講之前，我想提請您注意本次電話會議附帶的補充簡報。這些幻燈片提供了有關我們的結果和前景的更多顏色和詳細信息，也可以在我們的網站 atimaterials.com 上找到。

After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the accompanying presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Bob.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開通提問熱線。提醒一下，所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種假設和警告的影響。這些都在收益報告和隨附的演示文稿中得到了說明。現在我將把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. In the first quarter of 2024, our leadership team focused on the things within our control acting with urgency and a forward-looking perspective. The results reported today reflect those efforts. This morning, I'll summarize the 3 key points I want you to take from our performance.

謝謝，戴夫。大家，早安。 2024年第一季度，我們的領導團隊專注於我們控制範圍內的事情，以緊迫感和前瞻性的眼光行事。今天報告的結果反映了這些努力。今天早上，我將總結 3 個希望您從我們的表現中汲取的要點。

Point number one, Q1 financial results surpassed expectations. We delivered adjusted earnings per share for the quarter of $0.48, exceeding the top end of our estimated range. Revenue was over $1 billion for the seventh consecutive quarter. Our Advanced Alloys & Solutions segment led the way, achieving a 14% EBITDA margin in Q1.

第一，第一季財務表現超出預期。本季度調整後每股收益為 0.48 美元，超出了我們預計範圍的上限。營收連續第七個季度超過 10 億美元。我們的先進合金和解決方案部門一馬當先，第一季 EBITDA 利潤率達到 14%。

This reflects a double-digit sequential growth in the electronics and medical markets and strong A&D sales in Specialty Rolled Products. In addition, our Oregon team delivered an accelerated recovery from January specific Northwest storm-related outages really was a great performance across the segment.

這反映出電子和醫療市場的兩位數連續成長以及特種軋製產品的強勁 A&D 銷售。此外，我們的俄勒岡團隊從 1 月特定的西北風暴相關停電中加速恢復，這確實是整個細分市場的出色表現。

We expected the High Performance Materials & Components segment to be down in the first quarter given the late year production outages we discussed in our last quarterly call. The good news is those impacts are fully behind us, and the business is leveraging the ramping melt rates and new billet forge press capacity.

鑑於我們在上一季度電話會議中討論的年末生產中斷，我們預計第一季高性能材料和零件業務將出現下滑。好消息是，這些影響已完全過去，並且該業務正在利用不斷提高的熔化率和新的方坯鍛造壓機產能。

Equally important, our Forged Products business unit wrapped up another great quarter, best 2 in a row delivering the highest revenue in their history. All of this sets the stage for strong sequential growth and segment EBITDA margins back above 20% in Q2. Our commitment to managing working capital intensity delivered significant first quarter improvements for free cash flow over the prior year first quarter.

同樣重要的是，我們的鍛造產品業務部門又完成了一個出色的季度，連續兩個季度實現了歷史上最高的收入。所有這些都為第二季的強勁連續成長和部門 EBITDA 利潤率重返 20% 以上奠定了基礎。我們對管理營運資本強度的承諾使第一季的自由現金流比去年第一季有了顯著改善。

And we fully executed our share repurchase authorization of $150 million, directly showing the benefits of our strong performance with our shareholders. We did what we said we would do and what we needed to do in Q1. Point number two, demand for ATI aerospace and defense as well as aero light products remains robust. While the percentage of A&D sales dipped slightly below 60% in the quarter due to near-term order patterns and the impact of the Q4 outages, the composite of A&D and aero-like business remained above 75%.

我們也全面執行了1.5億美元的股票回購授權，直接向股東展示了我們強勁業績的好處。我們在第一季做了我們說過要做的和需要做的。第二點，對 ATI 航空航太和國防以及航空輕型產品的需求仍然強勁。儘管由於近期訂單模式和第四季度停電的影響，本季 A&D 銷售百分比略低於 60%，但 A&D 和航空類業務的綜合銷售額仍保持在 75% 以上。

We're confident sales in the coming quarters will put us back on the trend line to our target of 65% A&D sales. ATI's market position is very broad, significantly more diverse than before the pandemic. We're producing for every commercial airframe and every jet engine program.

我們相信，未來幾季的銷售將使我們回到趨勢線，實現 A&D 銷售額 65% 的目標。 ATI 的市場地位非常廣泛，比疫情大流行之前更加多樣化。我們為每一種商用機身和每一種噴射發動機專案進行生產。

The struggles with the 737 MAX and the resulting impact on near-term LEAP-1B engine deliveries are much publicized. The impact on ATI is not meaningful. Any impact is more than offset by demand to support the Geared Turbofan accelerated overhauls, elevated engine spares and increased defense and commercial space activity.

737 MAX 的困境及其對近期 LEAP-1B 引擎交付的影響已廣為人知。對ATI的影響意義不大。任何影響都可以被支援齒輪渦輪風扇加速大修、增加引擎備件以及增加國防和商業太空活動的需求所抵消。

And for clarity, the revised lower 737 MAX and LEAP-1B orders are reflected in our 2024 full year guidance. Our focus is firmly on end markets and premium products where our differentiated capabilities and materials are most highly valued. Point number three, we're increasing our 2024 EPS guidance, driven by strong demand, improved operational stability and a healthy pricing environment.

為清楚起見，修訂後的 737 MAX 和 LEAP-1B 訂單量減少已反映在我們的 2024 年全年指引中。我們的重點是終端市場和優質產品，我們的差異化能力和材料在這些市場上受到高度重視。第三點，在強勁需求、改善的營運穩定性和健康的定價環境的推動下，我們正在提高 2024 年每股盈餘指引。

We maintain our expectations for both top and bottom line growth in the second half. Our operations are performing at rates that support the second half guidance. Kim will share more color on this in a moment. As we leave the first quarter and look ahead to the strong outlook for Q2 and the rest of 2024, we've reached an ideal intersection of the effective strategy, top line growth and bottom line performance.

我們維持下半年營收和利潤成長的預期。我們的營運表現支持下半年的指導。 Kim 稍後將對此分享更多內容。當我們離​​開第一季並展望第二季和 2024 年剩餘時間的強勁前景時，我們已經實現了有效策略、頂線成長和底線業績的理想交集。

ATI has proven to perform and well positioned for the future. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kim and return later in the call for a few closing comments. Kim?

ATI 已證明其性能良好，並為未來做好了準備。這樣，我會將電話轉給 Kim，並在電話會議稍後返回以發表一些結束語。金？

Thanks, Bob. I'm excited about ATI's future and look forward to continue executing our strategy. We've invested a lot in this strategy, and I'm confident in our direction. Thank you for your leadership and vision.

謝謝，鮑伯。我對 ATI 的未來感到興奮，並期待繼續執行我們的策略。我們在這個策略上投入了大量資金，我對我們的方向充滿信心。感謝您的領導和遠見。

Looking ahead, let's add a little color on the strength of the markets and why I'm confident in meeting the guidance for the year. First, let's answer the question on everyone's mind. How are the 737 MAX challenges and resulting build rate reductions affecting ATI? Let me emphasize, this is not impacting our orders in any meaningful way.

展望未來，讓我們對市場的實力以及為什麼我有信心達到今年的指導目標增添一些色彩。首先，我們來回答一下大家心中的疑問。 737 MAX 面臨的挑戰以及由此導致的製造速度降低對 ATI 有何影響？讓我強調一下，這不會對我們的訂單產生任何有意義的影響。

As you will hear in Don's guidance, what we do see is strong underlying market demand that overcomes any 737 MAX inventory burn down and LEAP-1B build rate reductions. We are getting signals that further into the year, we'll see order increases to support 2025 wide-body build rates. We are very connected with our customers, and they recognize the importance of smoothing the impact to not derail the momentum that's been built.

正如您將在 Don 的指導中聽到的那樣，我們確實看到了強勁的潛在市場需求，克服了 737 MAX 庫存消耗和 LEAP-1B 建造率降低的影響。我們收到的訊號表明，今年下半年，我們將看到訂單增加，以支援 2025 年寬體飛機的建造速度。我們與客戶關係密切，他們認識到緩和影響、不破壞已經建立的勢頭的重要性。

With today's lead time, if you jump out of line, you'll face up to 12 to 18 months late for material when you get back in line to reorder. In the meantime, there is plenty of demand from others until the 737 MAX gets back on track and returns to a significant growth rate. Last summer, we announced $1.2 billion in sales commitments.

按照今天的交貨時間，如果您超出隊列，當您重新排隊重新訂購時，您將面臨長達 12 至 18 個月的材料延遲。同時，在 737 MAX 重回正軌並恢復顯著成長率之前，其他市場也有大量需求。去年夏天，我們宣布了 12 億美元的銷售承諾。

These orders are ramping now. Additionally, we're seeing opportunities for emergent demand and expanded share positions as customers eliminate single points of failure and move business from underperforming suppliers to those who perform like ATI.

這些訂單現在正在增加。此外，隨著客戶消除單點故障並將業務從表現不佳的供應商轉移到像 ATI 這樣的供應商，我們看到了新興需求和擴大份額的機會。

Today, our customer base is more diverse than before the pandemic. ATI provides content to all major engine and airframe OEMs. The other large air framer in Talos is very busy these days and we've significantly grown our position in certain products, upwards of 50% share as they look to diversify their titanium supply chain away from Russian sources. We're seeing very strong demand in engines, too.

如今，我們的客戶群比大流行之前更加多樣化。 ATI 向所有主要引擎和機身 OEM 提供內容。 Talos 的另一家大型飛機製造商最近非常忙碌，我們在某些​​產品中的地位顯著提高，份額超過 50%，因為他們希望將鈦供應鏈多元化，遠離俄羅斯來源。我們也看到了引擎的強勁需求。

Across the board, higher shop visits are driving up spares demand, especially for the hot section materials and parts we produce. This continues to pace closer to 40% overall demand versus the 20% to 25% we've seen historically. We're actively supporting the GTF accelerated overhauls and parts replacement. This multiyear replacement plan is driving GTF forging demand up 25% in the back half versus last year, and we see further growth in this important program in 2025 and beyond.

總體而言，更高的車間訪問量正在推高備件需求，特別是對於我們生產的熱型材和零件。這一比例繼續接近總需求的 40%，而我們歷史上看到的比例為 20% 至 25%。我們正在積極支持 GTF 加速檢修和零件更換。這項多年更換計畫正在推動 GTF 鍛造需求在下半年比去年成長 25%，我們預計這項重要計畫將在 2025 年及以後進一步成長。

Another strong market is defense. Defense armor plate continues to grow due to Abrams rearmoring packages and foreign military sales. We enjoy a strong supply position on the U.K.'s Ajax vehicle program, and we're winning new programs like the U.S. Army's new armored fighting vehicle, which has doubled the ATI content versus previous designs. The robust demand we are experiencing across most of our markets create pricing opportunities as well. We anticipate seeing these wins hit the bottom line in the back half of the year.

另一個強勁的市場是國防。由於艾布拉姆斯的重裝套件和對外軍售，國防裝甲板繼續增長。我們在英國的 Ajax 車輛計劃中享有強大的供應地位，並且我們正在贏得新項目，例如美國陸軍的新型裝甲戰車，該車輛的 ATI 含量比以前的設計增加了一倍。我們在大多數市場經歷的強勁需求也創造了定價機會。我們預計這些勝利將在今年下半年達到底線。

This potential is built into our updated guidance. Space provides significant opportunities for high growth, leveraging our material science capabilities. Commercial launch firms are targeting 100 launches this year, which provides a strong start to our new long-term agreements. In fact, every business at ATI participates in this market and our material and parts are being designed into next generations of rockets, delivering strength at high temperatures for critical components. It may be a small percentage of our revenue today, but it is on track to double this year.

這種潛力已納入我們更新的指南中。利用我們的材料科學能力，太空為高速成長提供了重要機會。商業發射公司今年的目標是進行 100 次發射，這為我們新的長期協議提供了一個很好的開始。事實上，ATI 的每項業務都參與了這個市場，我們的材料和零件被設計成下一代火箭，為關鍵零件提供高溫強度。這可能只占我們今天收入的一小部分，但今年有望翻一番。

The business is going where we want it to go. ATI's products are in every major OEM aircraft and engine program. Bottom line, we have strong customer demand across our markets. Now let's talk operations. I am confident we are operating at the rate needed to meet this demand in our 2024 guidance. Recently, we commissioned a new 12,500 tonne billet press capable of processing both nickel and titanium.

業務正在朝著我們希望的方向發展。 ATI 的產品應用於所有主要 OEM 飛機和發動機項目。最重要的是，我們整個市場都有強勁的客戶需求。現在我們來談談操作。我相信我們的營運速度可以滿足 2024 年指導中的這項需求。最近，我們調試了一台能夠加工鎳和鈦的新型 12,500 噸方坯壓機。

This debottlenecking investment gives us maximum flexibility and is a key enabler to achieving our 2025 targets. Another example, Forged Products is in the process of qualifying products on our fourth isothermal press. A major control system upgrade brought this asset up to best-in-class and increases our ISO forging capacity by up to 40% over the first half of 2024.

這項消除瓶頸的投資為我們提供了最大的靈活性，是實現 2025 年目標的關鍵推動因素。另一個例子是，鍛造產品正在我們的第四台等溫壓機上進行產品鑑定。重大控制系統升級使該資產達到了同類最佳水平，並將我們的 ISO 鍛造產能比 2024 年上半年提高了 40%。

These are both great examples of debottlenecking our nickel and titanium value streams. Last, with the increased industry focus on quality, testing and inspection capacity has been very tight. We have substantially expanded our ultrasonic inspection to support the increased testing requirements and relieve a critical industry supply chain bottleneck.

這些都是消除鎳和鈦價值流瓶頸的絕佳例子。最後，隨著產業對品質關注度的提高，測試和檢驗能力已經非常緊張。我們大幅擴展了超音波檢測範圍，以支援不斷增加的測試要求並緩解關鍵的行業供應鏈瓶頸。

By the second half, our testing capacity will triple. This goes a long way to addressing the urgent need of our customer base. Our team is firing on all cylinders and their hard work really shines through in this quarter's results. We're operating at the rates needed to meet our second half guidance. I'm confident we're taking the steps needed to have increased capabilities and capacity, so we'll reach or exceed our stated 2025 targets.

到下半年，我們的測試能力將增加兩倍。這對於解決我們客戶群的迫切需求大有幫助。我們的團隊正在全力以赴，他們的辛勤工作在本季度的業績中得到了充分體現。我們的營運速度滿足下半年的指導要求。我相信我們正在採取必要的措施來增強能力和容量，因此我們將達到或超越我們既定的 2025 年目標。

Before I conclude, I want to thank our teams. Every day, they are focused on safely delivering for our customers. As you can see, their efforts are paying off as we achieved solid financial returns for our shareholders. We appreciate all their hard work. With that, I'll turn it over to Don for detail on this quarter's results and the outlook for the second quarter in 2024.

在結束之前，我要感謝我們的團隊。他們每天都專注於為我們的客戶安全交付。正如您所看到的，他們的努力正在得到回報，我們為股東實現了豐厚的財務回報。我們感謝他們的辛勤工作。接下來，我會將其轉交給 Don，以了解有關本季業績的詳細資訊以及 2024 年第二季的前景。

Thanks, Kim. Let me start by noting that ATI continues to deliver on commitments to our shareholders. First quarter adjusted EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance range in a meaningful way. We also delivered noteworthy improvement to cash performance year-over-year. We used that liquidity in the first quarter to repurchase $150 million of stock.

謝謝，金。首先我要指出的是，ATI 繼續履行對股東的承諾。第一季調整後每股收益明顯超出了我們指引範圍的上限。我們的現金業績年比也取得了顯著改善。我們在第一季利用這些流動資金回購了 1.5 億美元的股票。

We are also raising full year earnings and free cash flow guidance to reflect expected performance. There are 3 areas I want to cover today. First, Q1 showed continued improvement in a ramping demand environment. Second, we anticipate a meaningful increase in sales and earnings in Q2. And third, our expected performance in the second half of the year is well aligned to delivering 2025 financial targets.

我們也提高了全年獲利和自由現金流指引，以反映預期業績。今天我想討論 3 個領域。首先，第一季需求成長環境持續改善。其次，我們預期第二季的銷售額和收益將大幅成長。第三，我們下半年的預期業績與達成 2025 年財務目標非常吻合。

Let's start with color on the first quarter. The AA&S segment delivered stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter, including revenue growth of 7% over fourth quarter 2023 as well as adjusted EBITDA margins of 14%. Aerospace, medical and electronics drove the sequential revenue increase.

讓我們從第一季的顏色開始。 AA&S 部門第一季的業績強於預期，其中營收較 2023 年第四季成長 7%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14%。航空航太、醫療和電子產品推動了收入的環比成長。

As expected, certain industrial end markets remain soft, continuing a trend started in 2023. Conventional energy sales increased due to a nonrecurring product delivery. Beyond this singular event, we continue to expect recovery of industrial demand in the second half of the year. For HPMC, melt outages in late 2023 led to lower first quarter sales and unfavorable mix as well as lower earnings and margins. But the outages are behind us. Melt rates are where we need them to be to hit our targets. Here, I want to call out the team's efforts to improve CAP performance.

正如預期的那樣，某些工業終端市場仍然疲軟，延續了 2023 年開始的趨勢。除了這一特殊事件之外，我們繼續預計下半年工業需求將出現復甦。對於 HPMC 來說，2023 年末的熔煉中斷導致第一季銷售額下降、不利的組合以及收益和利潤率下降。但停電已經成為過去。熔化速率是我們需要達到的目標。在這裡，我想強調一下團隊為提高 CAP 效能所做的努力。

Q1 has historically been a quarter of seasonal cash burn. Cash used in operating activities this quarter was $99 million. Compare that to the first quarter of 2023, when we used $285 million for operating activities. That's a $186 million year-over-year improvement. Working capital management and the absence of pension contributions led to the favorable change.

從歷史上看，第一季是季節性現金消耗的四分之一。本季經營活動使用的現金為 9,900 萬美元。與 2023 年第一季相比，我們使用了 2.85 億美元用於營運活動。年增 1.86 億美元。營運資本管理和退休金繳款的取消導致了有利的變化。

Good progress to date but we still have many opportunities to unlock when it comes to cash conversion. We are putting that cash to good use. In Q1, we repurchased $150 million of our stock, completing the program our board approved last November. Executing the program early in the year reflects strong liquidity and a stable balance sheet. It also reflects confidence in our improving operating cycle and cash generation profile.

到目前為止進展良好，但在現金轉換方面我們仍然有很多機會可以釋放。我們正在充分利用這些現金。第一季度，我們回購了 1.5 億美元的股票，完成了董事會去年 11 月批准的計畫。今年年初執行該計劃反映了強勁的流動性和穩定的資產負債表。它也反映了我們對改善營運週期和現金生成狀況的信心。

We closed the first quarter with more than $950 million of total liquidity including nearly $400 million of cash on hand. That's after executing the share buyback. Our net leverage ratio was 2.8x at the end of the quarter and should continue to improve because of cash generation and increasing profits.

第一季結束時，我們的流動資金總額超過 9.5 億美元，其中包括近 4 億美元的手頭現金。那是在執行股票回購之後。截至本季末，我們的淨槓桿率為 2.8 倍，並且由於現金產生和利潤增加而應繼續改善。

Looking beyond Q1, we remain committed to delivering maximum value as we, one, invest for growth, two, delever the balance sheet; and three, return capital to our shareholders.

展望第一季之後，我們仍致力於實現最大價值，一是投資促進成長，二是去槓桿化資產負債表；第三，向股東返還資本。

With that, let's talk about our Q2 outlook and our updated expectations for 2024. To provide greater clarity into our financial outlook, we have added an estimated range for adjusted EBITDA to complement the guidance we offer for adjusted earnings per share. Demand for ATI products remains strong, particularly in the A&D and Aero life markets.

接下來，讓我們談談我們對第二季度的展望以及對2024 年的最新預期。股收益指引。對 ATI 產品的需求仍然強勁，特別是在 A&D 和航空生命市場。

When combined with the improved operational performance and production capacity that Kim highlighted, the expectations for future performance are compelling. For the second quarter, we estimate adjusted EPS will be in the range of $0.54 to $0.60 per share. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter to be between $170 million and $180 million. Where is that growth coming from?

與金強調的營運績效和生產能力的改善相結合，對未來績效的期望是令人信服的。我們預計第二季調整後每股收益將在 0.54 美元至 0.60 美元之間。我們預計第二季調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.7 億美元至 1.8 億美元之間。這種增長來自哪裡？

Sales growth in our core end markets, post-outage debottleneck production levels and stable industrial demand. Expected strength in the second quarter carries over to the full year. We expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.30 to $2.60 per share. At the midpoint of the range, that is a $0.13 increase from the full year guidance provided last quarter.

我們的核心終端市場銷售成長，停電後生產水準擺脫瓶頸，工業需求穩定。第二季的預期強勁勢頭將延續至全年。我們預計全年調整後每股收益將在每股 2.30 美元至 2.60 美元之間。在該範圍的中點，這比上季度提供的全年指引增加了 0.13 美元。

We also narrowed our guidance range by $0.10 to reflect confidence in our ability to deliver. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is expected to be in the range of $700 million to $750 million. This strong performance and improved outlook carries over to cash flows, where we have increased our full year free cash flow range by $15 million from previous guidance.

我們還將指導範圍縮小了 0.10 美元，以反映對我們交付能力的信心。全年調整後 EBITDA 預計在 7 億至 7.5 億美元之間。這種強勁的業績和改善的前景也體現在現金流方面，我們將全年自由現金流範圍比之前的指導增加了 1500 萬美元。

The new range is $260 million to $340 million. The $300 million midpoint represents an 82% increase from 2023 free cash flow of $165 million. We are not changing our CapEx range. It remains at $190 million to $230 million. I know my audience. Most of you have already done the math regarding what this guidance indicates for the second half. The message is that we anticipate strong earnings, margin and cash generation momentum as we exit 2024 and focus on delivering our 2025 financial targets. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bob.

新的範圍為 2.6 億至 3.4 億美元。 3 億美元的中點意味著比 2023 年 1.65 億美元的自由現金流成長 82%。我們不會改變我們的資本支出範圍。仍維持在 1.9 億至 2.3 億美元之間。我了解我的觀眾。你們中的大多數人已經計算過該指南對下半年的指示。傳達的訊息是，隨著我們退出 2024 年並專注於實現 2025 年財務目標，我們預計將出現強勁的獲利、利潤和現金生成勢頭。這樣，我會將電話轉回給鮑伯。

Thanks, Don. Today's call is my 22nd as an ATI's CEO those of you into material science like we are, now the 22 is the atomic number for titanium. So I guess it's fitting. Since being named CEO in August of 2018, it's been a privilege to collaborate with our team to develop ATI's strategy and guide our efforts to execute on that strategy to the benefit of shareholders, customers and employees.

謝謝，唐。今天的電話是我作為 ATI 執行長的第 22 次電話會議，你們這些像我們一樣進入材料科學的人，現在 22 是鈦的原子序數。所以我想這是合適的。自 2018 年 8 月被任命為執行長以來，我很榮幸能夠與我們的團隊合作制定 ATI 策略並指導我們努力執行該策略，以造福股東、客戶和員工。

Almost from day 1, I got great counsel from our directors to build a succession plan for whenever the time was right. We've been doing that, building a strong team across the enterprise. That includes investing in Kim Fields. She's learned and led each business unit within ATI, strengthening our operations and championing our growth.

幾乎從第一天起，我就從董事那裡得到了很好的建議，以便在時機成熟時制定繼任計劃。我們一直在這樣做，在整個企業內建立了一支強大的團隊。其中包括投資 Kim Fields。她學習並領導 ATI 的每個業務部門，加強我們的營運並支持我們的發展。

Kim equally invested herself in the development experience and the development of our A&D strategy. Our deliberate succession plan has paid off. She's ready to become ATI's next CEO on July 1. I'm really pleased for her and she's earned it. And I'm excited for ATI and as Executive Chairman, I might be stepping away from the day to day, but I'll support Kim and whatever she achieves.

Kim 同樣將自己投入到我們的開發經驗和 A&D 策略的製定中。我們深思熟慮的繼任計劃得到了回報。她已準備好於 7 月 1 日成為 ATI 的下一任執行長。我為 ATI 感到興奮，作為執行主席，我可能會遠離日常事務，但我會支持 Kim 和她所取得的一切成就。

As I reflect on the last 6 years, it's been a great run. Some days it felt a lot more like a sprint than a run, but a little more geopolitical and market uncertainty than anyone could have anticipated came along but we've used every opportunity to our advantage.

當我回顧過去的六年時，這是一段偉大的歷程。有時候，感覺更像是衝刺而不是跑步，但地緣政治和市場的不確定性比任何人預期的都要多一些，但我們利用了每一個機會來發揮我們的優勢。

Yet to be clear, the best days of value creation at ATI are ahead. My confidence in ATI's future is driven first by the strength of the aerospace and defense market demand. This robust growth is expected for the balance of the decade. Second, ATI is positioned in our core markets with a very broad customer and end-use application base. And third, our capabilities are extraordinary. Our operational advantage is formidable and our velocity, speed in the defined direction is accelerating.

但需要明確的是，ATI 創造價值的最佳日子即將到來。我對 ATI 未來的信心首先來自於航空航太和國防市場的強勁需求。預計在這十年的剩餘時間將出現這種強勁增長。其次，ATI 定位於我們的核心市場，擁有非常廣泛的客戶和最終用途應用基礎。第三，我們的能力非凡。我們的營運優勢是巨大的，我們的速度，在既定方向上的速度正在加快。

It's a great position to begin for sure. I'm extremely proud to have led the team that has transformed ATI and positioned us so strongly for the future. and we really have a great team. Thanks to them for all we've accomplished together. We are and will continue to be proven to perform. With that, let's open the line for questions.

這無疑是一個很好的起點。我非常自豪能夠領導這個團隊，他們改變了 ATI，並為我們的未來奠定了堅實的基礎。我們確實擁有一支出色的團隊。感謝他們我們共同取得的一切成就。我們的表現已經並將繼續被證明。接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Michael Leshock of KeyBanc.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Michael Leshock。

Bob, congrats on 22. I wanted to start here on the commercial aerospace side. I know the 737 MAX is incorporated in guidance, and it sounds like you have ample room to mitigate some of the near-term challenges across your whole portfolio, but wanted to ask on how long it would take for subdued MAX build rates to meaningfully impact ATI?

鮑勃，恭喜你 22 歲了。我知道 737 MAX 已納入指導意見，聽起來您有足夠的空間來緩解整個投資組合中的一些近期挑戰，但想問一下 MAX 建造率低迷需要多長時間才能產生有意義的影響阿蒂？

So hypothetically, if Boeing's rate stayed the same for another year, what would the impact look like on 2025 numbers for ATI? And are there ways to mitigate this if the 737 issues become a longer-term issue?

那麼假設一下，如果波音的利率再維持一年不變，會對 ATI 2025 年的業績產生什麼影響？如果 737 問題成為長期問題，是否有辦法緩解這種情況？

So I think I'll take this one, Bob. So just to give you a little bit of color, as we mentioned, there's been minimal impact on us. And primarily because it's more than offset by demand across all our other programs. So even if it was, as you said, further out and multiple quarters forward, as we're looking at it, a couple of things are true.

所以我想我會選擇這個，鮑勃。因此，正如我們所提到的，只是給您一點顏色，這對我們的影響很小。主要是因為它被我們所有其他計劃的需求所抵消。因此，即使正如您所說，更遠和未來多個季度，正如我們所看到的，有幾件事是真實的。

One is wide-body demand is starting to ramp, which has much higher titanium content than the 737 MAX, which is more of an aluminum plane. The engines programs kind of across the board, we're seeing really strong demand on all of those programs, engine spares and MRO visits are up, which are some OEMs are predicting increases in that as well we're a key part of the GTF overhaul and parts replacement, and that's going to be elevated for several years as we work with them to help lower their AOGs.

一是寬體飛機的需求開始增加，其鈦含量比 737 MAX 高得多，後者更像是鋁製飛機。引擎專案是全面的，我們看到對所有這些項目、引擎備件和 MRO 存取的需求非常強勁，一些原始設備製造商預計這方面的需求也會增加，我們是 GTF 的關鍵部分大修和零件更換，隨著我們與他們合作以幫助降低他們的AOG，這將在未來幾年內持續增加。

And lastly, you can't forget the LEAP-1A has just as much engine content in titanium as the 1B, and that is continuing to grow, and we anticipate that. So as we said in the near term, minimal impact, and we anticipate that for many quarters out that we're going to be in good shape.

最後，您不能忘記 LEAP-1A 的引擎鈦含量與 1B 一樣多，而且這一比例還在持續增長，我們對此也有預期。因此，正如我們在短期內所說，影響最小，我們預計在未來的許多季度中，我們將保持良好狀態。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then -- on industrial demand, just wanted to get your take on what gives you confidence in a second half recovery? And what are the moving pieces that you're seeing on the industrial side?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後，關於工業需求，只是想了解一下是什麼讓您對下半年的復甦充滿信心？您在工業方面看到了哪些變化？

This is Don. I'll take that question. Really, we've talked for a while now about our expectations that industrial is going to recover largely in the second half of the year. And what we're looking at is signals within the individual end markets that make up our industrial.

這是唐。我來回答這個問題。確實，我們已經討論了一段時間了，我們對工業將在下半年大幅復甦的預期。我們關注的是構成我們工業的各個終端市場內的訊號。

And what I would say is, this last quarter, we saw some positives in oil and gas. Some of those are recurring, some are not. But we are seeing some indications from an order, a book order volume standpoint that there's positive trend. So what it does is it gives us great confidence that our expectation for Q2 is still strong. In addition to that, we've seen recoveries in Asia demand with our Asian Precision Rolled Strip business and stability in industrials overall.

我想說的是，上個季度，我們看到了石油和天然氣的一些積極因素。其中有些是重複出現的，有些則不是。但我們從訂單、圖書訂單量的角度看到了一些跡象，顯示有正面的趨勢。因此，它的作用是讓我們充滿信心，相信我們對第二季度的預期仍然強勁。除此之外，我們也看到亞洲精密軋製帶鋼業務的亞洲需求復甦以及工業整體的穩定。

Our next question comes from Richard Safran of Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Richard Safran。

Bob, congrats to you and I have one for you Don.

鮑勃，恭喜你，我為你準備了一份，唐。

Thank you rich.

謝謝有錢人。

Any time, Bob. Kim, could you expand a little bit more on this widebody demand you were mentioning in your opening remarks. Is that coming from both Boeing and Airbus? And is it possible, could you discuss the 787 orders? Does it -- that you're getting right now? I mean is it supporting higher rates than what we're seeing right now given your lead times?

任何時候，鮑伯。 Kim，您能否進一步闡述您在開場白中提到的寬體客機需求。這是來自波音和空中巴士的嗎？您能否討論一下 787 訂單？現在明白了嗎？我的意思是，考慮到你們的交貨時間，它是否支持比我們現在看到的更高的利率？

Thanks, Rich. Appreciate the question. Yes. There's been some -- obviously, the 350, they come out and stated higher rates as they're going forward. And I got to take everyone back to material lead times for these programs are 12 to 15 months out.

謝謝，里奇。感謝這個問題。是的。有一些——顯然是 350，他們出來並表示未來會提高利率。我必須讓大家回到材料交付週期，因為這些項目還有 12 到 15 個月的時間。

So we are starting to see and talk with our customers, and we're very aligned with them. So we're starting to see that demand as they're talking to us around how do we ensure that the material flow is going to be available as they start to ramp up. As you said, the 787 has continued to ramp.

因此，我們開始與客戶見面並交談，我們與他們的意見非常一致。因此，當他們與我們討論如何確保材料流在材料開始增加時可用時，我們開始看到這種需求。正如您所說，787 一直在持續成長。

And so we've started having those conversations on that side, and we anticipate seeing those orders being placed to get into the lead time for the second half of this year as we gear up for shipments into 2025.

因此，我們已經開始進行這方面的對話，我們預計這些訂單將在今年下半年進入交貨時間，因為我們正在為 2025 年的發貨做好準備。

Okay. Don, just quickly, could you go over -- discuss a bit about how you're thinking about capital deployment now given that you used up the $150 million in the first quarter. At one point Don in time, I think you were talking about M&A also. So if you include a bit of a discussion about that in your answer.

好的。唐，請您快點過去討論一下，考慮到您在第一季度用完了 1.5 億美元，您現在如何考慮資本部署。在某一時刻，唐，我認為你也在談論併購。因此，如果您在答案中對此進行一些討論。

Sure. Happy to do that. We talked many times about our balanced capital deployment strategy. We're focused on 3 elements growing the business delevering and returning capital to shareholders. That -- those 3 priorities and the balance around them is not expected to change.

當然。很高興這樣做。我們多次談到我們的平衡資本配置策略。我們專注於發展業務、去槓桿化和向股東返還資本的三個要素。這三個優先事項以及圍繞它們的平衡預計不會改變。

But you're pointing out that we did fully consume that the authorization that we had for share repurchases in Q1 with $150 million. So are we expecting to do additional share purchases this year would be a fair conclusion of the question that you're asking. The short answer to that is we have clearly prioritized returning capital to shareholders.

但您指出，我們確實完全消耗了第一季 1.5 億美元的股票回購授權。因此，我們是否預計今年將進行額外的股票購買，這將是您所問問題的公平結論。對此的簡短回答是，我們明確優先考慮向股東返還資本。

Since early 2022, we repurchased almost $400 million of our shares. We are in a very fortunate position where we expect to have healthy cash generation, just have to look at the targets that we've shared. And so that, coupled with our strong balance sheet and liquidity, Rich, we're in a great position to continue to make choices.

自 2022 年初以來，我們回購了近 4 億美元的股票。我們處於一個非常幸運的位置，我們期望能夠產生健康的現金，只需要看看我們共享的目標。因此，加上我們強大的資產負債表和流動性，Rich，我們處於繼續做出選擇的有利位置。

So what does that mean for maybe an additional share repurchase program this year? And the short answer on that is I don't want to get ahead of my board, but I would point out that our Board has been extraordinarily supportive of this balanced capital deployment strategy. And prioritizing return of capital to shareholders. I would not expect that the $150 million program we just completed will be the last program, quite the contrary. In terms of M&A, our bias has been -- yes, our bias on growing the business and investment has really been toward organic investment.

那麼，這對於今年可能實施的額外股票回購計畫意味著什麼？對此的簡短回答是，我不想超越董事會，但我想指出，我們的董事會一直非常支持這種平衡的資本部署策略。並優先考慮向股東返還資本。我不認為我們剛完成的 1.5 億美元項目將是最後一個項目，恰恰相反。在併購方面，我們的偏見是——是的，我們對發展業務和投資的偏見確實是有機投資。

And we've got a long list of great projects that provide robust returns, and we don't see that changing. It doesn't mean that we're not interested in M&A, but I can tell you the hurdles that we have internally -- hurdles in terms of very close adjacencies overlap to our current business, return profiles, those kinds of things.

我們有一長串能夠提供強勁回報的優秀項目，而且我們認為這種情況不會改變。這並不意味著我們對併購不感興趣，但我可以告訴你我們內部存在的障礙——與我們當前業務、回報概況等非常密切的相鄰關係重疊的障礙。

They're very robust. So if we were to do any sort of acquisition, it would certainly be -- it would be challenged to hit our internal targets. It isn't something that we are putting great emphasis on or priority. We have a great business to run that's growing with CapEx and is going to provide the returns and the targets that we've shared with the market. And so we're happy with where we're at.

它們非常堅固。因此，如果我們要進行任何形式的收購，那麼實現我們的內部目標肯定會面臨挑戰。這不是我們非常重視或優先考慮的事情。我們擁有一項出色的業務，它隨著資本支出的成長而不斷成長，並將提供我們與市場共享的回報和目標。因此，我們對目前的處境感到滿意。

But it is -- I will tell you, it's nice to have choices. And it goes back to your original question, capital deployment. Our starting objective with our capital deployment strategy and focus on cash generation, Rich, was to put us in a position where we can make healthy choices for our shareholders and that's something that I think you're starting to see.

但我會告訴你，有選擇的感覺很好。這又回到了你最初的問題，資本部署。 Rich，我們的資本部署策略和對現金產生的關注的初始目標是讓我們能夠為股東做出健康的選擇，我認為您已經開始看到這一點。

Our next question comes from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

Bob, one to offer my congratulations as well, and best wishes going forward.

鮑勃，我也向他表示祝賀，並祝他今後一切順利。

Thank you David. Appreciate it.

謝謝大衛。欣賞它。

I guess the first question for you, Don. The EPS guidance increase, obviously, some of that is a lower share count. But beyond that, what actually changed since I don't -- we didn't have an EBITDA expectation before this or guidance before this. I guess, what got better in terms of end markets or maybe break it out by business AA&S, HPM? What has improved versus when you gave initial guidance?

我想第一個問題是問你的，唐。顯然，每股盈餘指引有所增加，其中一些是股票數量減少。但除此之外，實際上發生了什麼變化，因為我沒有——我們在此之前沒有 EBITDA 預期，也沒有指導。我想，在終端市場方面，什麼變得更好，或者可能透過業務 AA&S、HPM 來突破？與您提供初步指導時相比，有哪些改進？

Yes. It starts with our Q1 performance being better than expected. And so that was helpful and getting comfortable with raising the guidance. But really, it's starting with 2 pretty key items. One is continued strength of demand in our core end markets, aerospace and defense and aero like. And that strength is reinforcing growth, especially in the second half of the year in our business and growth that we expect is going to carry to 2025 and beyond.

是的。首先我們第一季的業績優於預期。因此，這很有幫助，並且對提高指導感到滿意。但實際上，它是從兩個非常關鍵的項目開始的。一是我們的核心終端市場（航空航太、國防和航空等）的需求持續強勁。這種力量正在加強成長，特別是在下半年我們的業務以及我們預計將持續到 2025 年及以後的成長。

So seeing that continued strength of demand was helpful. Another thing that I would point to that has increased our expectations of the business are tied to our debottlenecking activity. And of course, that's related to production and as we saw successes in the first quarter around our debottlenecking efforts and seeing improved flow around products that are melted and then seeing those progress through our production cycles through finishing and getting out the door, very positive trends that we see there.

因此，看到需求持續強勁是有幫助的。我要指出的另一件事是，我們對業務的期望提高了，這與我們的消除瓶頸活動有關。當然，這與生產有關，我們在第一季看到了消除瓶頸工作所取得的成功，看到了熔化產品周圍流程的改善，然後看到了我們生產週期中透過精加工和出廠所取得的進展，這是非常積極的趨勢我們在那裡看到的。

And -- so that's what I would point to. We've got some additional debottlenecking focus that our efforts rather in the second half that will continue to add incremental EBITDA to the business. And so that -- those are the primary drivers.

這就是我要指出的。我們還有一些額外的消除瓶頸的重點，我們的工作重點是下半年，這將繼續為業務增加增量 EBITDA。因此，這些是主要驅動因素。

Okay. Great. And you've talked about the second half of the year recovery and in your industrial end markets, I think mainly pointing to oil and gas. If that doesn't materialize, how much risk is there to your guidance? Are we at the low end of the EPS range if the -- if industrial just kind of holds where we are today? Does that put us at the low end or are we outside the range?

好的。偉大的。您談到了下半年的復甦以及工業終端市場，我認為主要指的是石油和天然氣。如果這沒有實現，你的指導會有多大風險？如果工業業保持在今天的水平，我們是否處於每股收益範圍的低端？這是否使我們處於低端或超出了範圍？

Yes. The magnitude of -- if that were to happen, it wouldn't have a significant effect on the guidance or us performing against the guidance that we shared today. It would be marginal, I would say, to the EBITDA guidance of $725 million.

是的。如果發生這種情況，它不會對指導意見或我們今天分享的指導意見的表現產生重大影響。我想說，這對於 7.25 億美元的 EBITDA 指引來說是微不足道的。

And so I would still expect was stable industrial, stable being defined as kind of where we were in Q1. I would expect pretty high confidence in our ability to deliver on the guidance that's on the table today.

因此，我仍然期望工業穩定，穩定被定義為我們在第一季的情況。我預計我們對實現今天提出的指導意見的能力充滿信心。

The next question comes from Scott Deuschle of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史考特‧德施勒。

Kim, reading between the lines on the prepared remarks, it sounded like ATI maybe recently expanded its role with freight and its work scope on the GTF. I guess did I read that right? And is there any additional context you can add if so?

Kim 從準備好的言論中讀出了字裡行間的意思，聽起來 ATI 最近可能擴大了其在貨運方面的作用以及在 GTF 上的工作範圍。我想我沒讀錯吧？如果是的話，您是否可以添加任何其他上下文？

Thanks, Scott. Yes, you did. You did read that right. I'd say ATI is part of the solution there. We've got a great relationship that's only grown through the pandemic, and it started with us partnering that with them on the angle scan testing protocols and practice and helping them work through both what was necessary and then how to streamline that, so that it didn't create more bottlenecks in the supply chain from an industry standpoint.

謝謝，斯科特。是的，你做到了。你沒看錯。我想說 ATI 是解決方案的一部分。我們之間建立了良好的關係，這種關係在大流行期間不斷發展，首先我們與他們在角度掃描測試協議和實踐方面進行合作，並幫助他們完成必要的工作，然後如何簡化它，以便從行業角度來看，並沒有在供應鏈中造成更多瓶頸。

And second, as I mentioned, we are partnering with them, and we are part of the solution with helping them address the GTF issue and the accelerated overhauls that they're driving I think was mentioned during the earnings call, material flow is really going to be the key, and we're partnering with them to accelerate that flow-through parts.

其次，正如我所提到的，我們正在與他們合作，我們是解決方案的一部分，幫助他們解決 GTF 問題以及他們正在推動的加速檢修，我認為在財報電話會議期間提到過，物質流確實在發展是關鍵，我們正在與他們合作以加速零件的流通。

I talked a little bit about our investment in ultrasonic inspection and testing. And again, that's in conjunction with helping to help support them really to accelerate bringing those AOGs back down. Just -- you didn't ask, but as we look at our guidance, that is something that we did anticipate some of that incremental work in there in terms of scope.

我談了一些我們在超音波檢驗和測試方面的投資。再說一次，這與幫助支持他們真正加快恢復這些 AOG 的速度相結合。只是——你沒有問，但當我們查看我們的指導時，我們確實預見了其中在範圍方面的一些增量工作。

But as we look forward, I'd say my bias and you've probably -- you're hearing Don's bias as well as to the upside of the range because clearly, if we're able to move quicker and as we work with them, they'll want -- they want to do that as well and get those planes back up in the air and back in service.

但當我們展望未來時，我會說我的偏見，你可能已經聽到了唐的偏見以及範圍的上行，因為很明顯，如果我們能夠更快地採取行動，並且當我們與他們也希望這樣做，讓這些飛機重新升空並重新投入使用。

Okay. Can you say what specific parts you're selling into them now? Is it powder metal or more forged products? Just trying to understand more specifically...

好的。您能透露一下您現在向他們銷售哪些具體零件嗎？是粉末金屬還是更多的鍛造產品？只是想更具體地了解...

Yes. No. So they're powdered metal. I think they've shared this publicly that they, through their joint venture, provide that material to our forged products group. So we're making the forged parts and just -- as an overview, we are typically participating with all of our engine OEMs in the hot section of those parts.

是的。不，所以它們是金屬粉末。我認為他們已經公開表示，他們透過合資企業向我們的鍛造產品小組提供這些材料。因此，我們正在製造鍛造零件，總的來說，我們通常會與所有引擎原始設備製造商一起參與這些零件的熱門部分。

So the HPT and HPC disks and so forth. So again, as you look at overhaul both from the powdered metal situation they've got but also just from the expanded overhauls that they're bringing these planes in that they may want to do some additional work so that they don't have to come back in again as soon. Both of those opportunities are hitting us.

HPT 和 HPC 磁碟等等。再說一次，當你從他們所擁有的粉末金屬情況來看大修時，也從他們帶來這些飛機的擴大大修來看，他們可能想做一些額外的工作，這樣他們就不必盡快再回來。這兩個機會都在攻擊我們。

Okay. Great. And Kim, are you able to say if ATI was one of the new sources of supply for titanium that Collins Aerospace recently signed on?

好的。偉大的。 Kim，您能否說一下 ATI 是否是柯林斯航空航天公司最近簽約的新鈦供應來源之一？

Well, what I can say is RTX is a long-term customer. We are partnering. We've grown our business over this time. I don't usually get into specifics about specific contracts and customers, but this example on the GTF, we just talked about is a great example of where we are continuing to grow our business with them. And as I said, we've got a great partnership with them.

嗯，我可以說的是 RTX 是長期客戶。我們正在合作。這段時間我們的業務有所成長。我通常不會詳細討論特定合約和客戶，但我們剛才談到的 GTF 的例子是我們繼續與他們發展業務的一個很好的例子。正如我所說，我們與他們建立了良好的合作關係。

The next question comes from Chris Olin of Northcoast Research.

下一個問題來自北海岸研究中心的克里斯·奧林。

I wanted to ask a little bit more about the titanium market share and maybe focus on the Airbus supply chain sourcing strategy. So it looks like the Canadian government officially exempted the Russian titanium imports from that sanctions list? And that decision confused me, but I guess what I was really confused was the -- confused by was the customer behavior because it looks like some of the suppliers in Europe and Canada under the Airbus umbrella, really either did not have any intention of breaking away from Russian supply or adhering to what Airbus had officially saying.

我想多問一些有關鈦市場份額的問題，也許重點放在空中巴士供應鏈採購策略。那麼看來加拿大政府正式將俄羅斯鈦進口排除在製裁名單之外？這個決定讓我感到困惑，但我想我真正感到困惑的是客戶的行為，因為看起來歐洲和加拿大的一些供應商在空中巴士的保護傘下，真的沒有任何破壞的意圖遠離俄羅斯供應或遵守空中客車公司的官方說法。

So I guess what I'm curious about is kind of your views on what's been going on lately with the contract movement or lack thereof? And does the fewer breaking off of contracts from Airbus hurt the Northwest titanium capacity expansion strategy? And I guess, finally, Bob, as one of your last acts of -- as CEO, I'm wondering if you're going to throw away your Brian Adams records as a protest of these exemptions from Canada.

所以我想我很好奇的是你對最近合約變動或缺乏合約的情況有何看法？空中巴士合約中斷事件的減少是否會損害西北鈦合金產能擴充策略？我想，最後，鮑勃，作為你作為首席執行官的最後行為之一，我想知道你是否會扔掉你的布萊恩亞當斯記錄，以抗議加拿大的這些豁免。

I want to deal with the last question first. I don't have any more records, but I'm going to hang on to the digital for sure. If you don't the Canadians, they're friends right? So I would say, let me start with kind of the broader picture and kind of work on my color around that right? So I think your question was, how do you see Russian supply and the risk to those who are investing?

我想先解決最後一個問題。我沒有更多的記錄，但我肯定會保留數位記錄。如果你不和加拿大人在一起，他們就是朋友，對嗎？所以我想說，讓我從更廣闊的前景開始，然後圍繞它對我的顏色進行一些工作，對嗎？所以我認為你的問題是，你如何看待俄羅斯的供應以及投資人面臨的風險？

I think our operations in the Pacific Northwest going to come online. Customers have committed across the board, gives us a great capability to marry up with our other titanium melting. And so I think we don't see any risk with that. It certainly gives us a lot of flexibility both in terms of the input materials as well as the alloys and the MDUs. So it's a very broad capability, and we look forward to that. I think if you look at the overall supply chain, what's going on perhaps in Canada, I don't think the Russian material in the supply chain has been totally consumed yet. It's still working its way through. It's not to zero, it's probably going to take into 2025 to do that.

我認為我們在西北太平洋地區的業務將會上線。客戶的全面承諾使我們有能力與我們的其他鈦熔煉技術結合。所以我認為我們沒有看到任何風險。它無疑在輸入材料以及合金和 MDU 方面為我們提供了很大的靈活性。所以這是一個非常廣泛的功能，我們對此充滿期待。我認為，如果你看看整個供應鏈，也許加拿大正在發生什麼，我認為供應鏈中的俄羅斯材料還沒有完全消耗掉。它仍在努力完成。它不是為零，可能需要到 2025 年才能做到這一點。

I think we have to recognize it's important to the national interest of the U.S., the Canadians, the Europeans to build airplanes. And that's what they're going to do. They're going to have to build airplanes. And so that's going to be their first priority. And that's what you see in some of the exemption activities is but it's going to be spotty kind of stuff because I think the vast majority of the supply chain are being filled by the incumbents.

我認為我們必須認識到製造飛機對美國、加拿大和歐洲的國家利益很重要。這就是他們要做的事。他們將不得不建造飛機。所以這將是他們的首要任務。這就是你在一些豁免活動中看到的情況，但這將是不穩定的事情，因為我認為絕大多數供應鏈都由現有企業填補。

We certainly are seeing that. I think all of our competitors around the world are seeing the same thing. But think back to the experiences and learnings over the last 2 years of the supply chain and what's going on, right? Number one is this commitment to eliminate single points of failure. So where people relied on sole sources perhaps out of Russia, probably not going back to that.

我們當然看到了這一點。我認為我們在世界各地的所有競爭對手都看到了同樣的事情。但回想一下供應鏈過去兩年的經驗和教訓，以及發生了什麼，對嗎？第一個是消除單點故障的承諾。因此，當人們依賴可能來自俄羅斯的唯一來源時，可能不會再回到那個地方。

Number 2 is the requalification issues, right? Think about the effort over the last 2 years to requalify. And here, we are hitting into the start of a wide-body demand increase. So who's going to take real risk on their ramp to switch supply when they've gone to great pains over the last 2 years to put it in place.

第二個問題是重新獲得資格的問題，對吧？想想過去兩年為重新獲得資格所做的努力。在這裡，我們正迎來寬體機需求成長的開始。因此，當他們在過去兩年中煞費苦心地實施供應時，誰會冒真正的風險來改變供應？

So I think that's -- I can't speak directly for Airbus and their strategy, but I would say that's the apparent strategy that they're on because they're acting like they've made the move and they're sticking to it. But the titanium industry needs to perform and meet the need. Let's not give need to go back to another source. That's our daily mantra.

所以我認為——我不能直接代表空中巴士和他們的策略，但我想說這是他們正在採取的明顯策略，因為他們的表現就像他們已經採取了行動並且他們正在堅持下去。但鈦工業需要表現並滿足需求。我們不需要回到另一個來源。這是我們每天的口頭禪。

And I think the OEMs are wanting to be -- they want a level competitive playing field, but boy, you got to be reliable. As Kim said earlier, every CEO on calls in the last few weeks has talked about the importance of material flow. So I don't think they take the situation lightly. But I do think there will be spot situations where the industry that doesn't have the right capability or the right capacity at the right time where you'll see material flowing.

我認為原始設備製造商希望——他們想要一個公平的競爭環境，但是，你必須可靠。正如金早些時候所說，過去幾週來接聽電話的每位執行長都談到了物質流的重要性。所以我認為他們不會掉以輕心。但我確實認為，在某些情況下，產業不具備適當的能力，或在適當的時間沒有適當的能力，你會看到物質流動。

But I would put it at low to no risk for the balance of the decade that the major OEMs would go back to Russian supply in a big way. I can't predict politics, but you can certainly predict economics. And I think they're committed to doing what's right for their customers to build the planes and reliable flow of high-quality material that's been qualified over and over again in the U.S. and Europe is going to be their priority.

但我認為，在這十年的剩餘時間裡，主要原始設備製造商將大規模回歸俄羅斯供應的風險很低甚至沒有。我無法預測政治，但你當然可以預測經濟。我認為他們致力於為客戶做正確的事情來製造飛機，而在美國和歐洲一次又一次合格的高品質材料的可靠流動將是他們的首要任務。

So see, did I answer all the questions, Christian? I think I did Brian Adams is still on my Rolodex, and West is going strong then we open Yes.

所以看看，我回答了所有問題嗎，克里斯蒂安？我想我做到了，布萊恩亞當斯仍然在我的名片盒上，韋斯特表現強勁，然後我們打開了是的。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。請繼續。

And let me add my congratulations, Bob, and congratulations to Kim as well. I wanted to ask maybe starting off -- starting off about the HPMC profitability. You talked about some lower shipments of high-value aerospace parts and we attribute some of that to outages. Were there more timing issues in the quarter rather than outages? And then how do you expect this to bounce back? And does that lead to a margin back above 20% in the second quarter for HPMC?

讓我祝賀鮑勃，也祝賀金。我想問一下，也許從 HPMC 的獲利能力開始。您談到高價值航空航太零件的出貨量有所下降，我們將其中部分原因歸因於停駛。本季是否存在更多的計時問題而不是中斷？那麼您預計這種情況會如何反彈？這是否會導致 HPMC 第二季的利潤率回到 20% 以上？

Sure. Let me cover that. So first of all, the primary driver for the lower revenues in Q1 were really tied to the melt outage impacts from that Q4 set of events. And the impact that it had on our inventory positions for Q1. So as we have that -- those outages behind us, we're expecting, of course, to be back up to the production levels, and we are seeing that, not just expecting it. We're seeing it.

當然。讓我來介紹一下。因此，首先，第一季營收下降的主要驅動因素實際上與第四季一系列事件的熔斷影響有關。以及它對我們第一季庫存狀況的影響。因此，既然我們已經經歷了那些停電，我們當然期望能夠恢復到生產水平，我們正在看到這一點，而不僅僅是期待它。我們正在看到它。

And then take another step upward in terms of our debottlenecking activity. Add to all of that, if you're talking about HPMC some of the things that Kim had talked about around forgings. And when you talk about forging, you have to remember, they've had 2 running quarters in a row word. They've set all-time records on their revenue.

然後在我們的消除瓶頸活動方面再向前邁出一步。除此之外，如果您談論的是 HPMC，請添加 Kim 談到的有關鍛件的一些內容。當你談論鍛造時，你必須記住，他們已經連續兩個季度了。他們的收入創下了歷史記錄。

In addition to that, we've started the fourth isothermal press, and we have added SONiC testing. And those SONiC testing was a bottleneck in the business. So as you look forward to Q2 and the second half of the year, for HPMC, you're seeing a lift in volumes. You're seeing -- and that's debottlenecking as well as production efficiency.

除此之外，我們還啟動了第四台等溫壓機，並且增加了 SONiC 測試。這些 SONiC 測試是業務的瓶頸。因此，當您展望第二季和下半年時，HPMC 的銷售量將會增加。您看到了—這就是消除瓶頸以及提高生產效率。

Don't forget the new assets that are coming online. We talked about the Albany Oregon facility that we restarted in 2023, that, that would be ramping up and really hitting income statement run rates in the second half of the year. That's a good guy.

不要忘記即將上線的新資產。我們談到了我們於 2023 年重新啟動的俄勒岡州奧爾巴尼工廠，該工廠將在下半年加速並真正達到損益表運行率。那是個好人。

And then just the general overall -- the efficiencies that we're going after in HPMC. The -- and then just one more thing. If you bear with me, As you think about the volume increase, where is it happening? Well, it's happening in aerospace and defense and aero-like, those are our richest margin product offerings. And so that's going to be beneficial to margins.

然後是總體情況——我們在 HPMC 中追求的效率。然後還有一件事。如果您耐心聽我說，當您考慮數量增加時，它發生在哪裡？嗯，這種情況正在航空航太、國防和航空領域發生，這些是我們利潤最豐富的產品。因此這將有利於利潤率。

So volume increases, greater efficiencies, great mix impacts and investor flow. That's -- those are -- those all set the stage for answering your question what the heck's going to happen with HPMC margins. The good news is they're going up. We expect by -- certainly in Q2, we're going to see HPMC margin back above the 20% level.

因此，交易量增加，效率提高，組合影響和投資者流量增加。這些都為回答您的問題奠定了基礎：HPMC 利潤到底會發生什麼。好消息是它們正在上升。我們預計，當然在第二季度，我們將看到 HPMC 利潤率回到 20% 以上的水平。

And as the year progresses, we would expect that those margins in the Q3 and Q4 kind of time frame would be in the 23% range. which is right in line with the targets that we have for 2025, which, as you know, are low 20s to mid-20s for HPMC.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計第三季和第四季的利潤率將在 23% 的範圍內。這與我們 2025 年的目標一致，如您所知，HPMC 的目標是 20 到 20 左右。

Now if we're going to talk about margins, I want to also just give you a sense as to how we're thinking about margins in the broader business. And so if you think about ATI consolidated so our experience this last quarter was 14.5% EBITDA margin.

現在，如果我們要討論利潤率，我也想讓您了解我們如何考慮更廣泛業務的利潤率。因此，如果您考慮 ATI 的合併情況，那麼我們上個季度的 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.5%。

And I would expect that with each passing quarter, our consolidated EBITDA margins would be increasing. And for the overall business, our 2025 targets are EBITDA margins in the 18% to 20% range where we exit 2024 is an important point in terms of our ability to close the gap and hit that 18% to 20% margin target.

我預計，隨著每季的過去，我們的綜合 EBITDA 利潤率都會增加。對於整體業務而言，我們2025 年的目標是EBITDA 利潤率在18% 至20% 範圍內，2024 年退出對於我們縮小差距並實現18% 至20% 利潤率目標的能力而言是一個重要的點。

So how should we think about our expected margin exit rate for Q4 of this year? I would expect the consolidated EBITDA margins to be in the range of 16.5% to 17%. And then of course, we're targeting 17% in our business. So that -- delivering 17% as the Q4 exit EBITDA margins really sets us up well to hit our 2025 range of 18% to 20%. So hopefully, that's helpful.

那麼我們該如何看待今年第四季的預期保證金退出率呢？我預計綜合 EBITDA 利潤率將在 16.5% 至 17% 之間。當然，我們的目標是佔業務的 17%。因此，第四季度退出 EBITDA 利潤率達到 17%，確實使我們能夠很好地實現 2025 年 18% 至 20% 的目標。希望這會有所幫助。

Our next question today comes from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes. We got you loud and clear Timna.

是的。我們為您提供響亮而清晰的 Timna。

Okay. Great. Bob, congrats on a great run, and it seems like it's been like -- and just yesterday that you just started and did some -- it's great to see all your progress. I wanted to just ask about CapEx and capital allocation.

好的。偉大的。鮑勃，恭喜你跑得很好，就在昨天，你剛開始並做了一些事情，很高興看到你的所有進步。我只想問一下資本支出和資本配置。

So on CapEx, I know you've done a really good job of debottlenecking and having bite-sized kind of growth. But I just want to know, is that -- how much more runway do you have of debottlenecking? How much more can you continue to kind of do these bite-sized increases in growth that way? What inning are we in there?

因此，在資本支出方面，我知道你們在消除瓶頸和實現小規模成長方面做得非常好。但我只是想知道，你們還有多少跑道可以消除瓶頸？您還能繼續以這種方式實現這些小規模的成長嗎？我們現在在第幾局？

And then second question, just a little bit more on the buybacks. Is this a good cadence to expect going forward? Is there an opportunistic element to your buyback where you look at the share price? Or do you just look at a steady amount over time?

然後是第二個問題，關於回購的更多內容。這是一個值得期待的好節奏嗎？從股價來看，您的回購是否有機會主義因素？還是你只是專注在一段時間內的穩定數量？

Sure. Let me take that. In terms of CapEx and debottlenecking, first, I want to reinforce, the growth that we're seeing in the business and the really strong trajectory that we're sharing a part of today, is all built on the CapEx guidance that we've shared with the market up to this point.

當然。讓我來吧。在資本支出和消除瓶頸方面，首先，我想強調的是，我們在業務中看到的成長以及我們今天分享的真正強勁的發展軌跡，都是建立在我們已經制定的資本支出指導之上的。到目前為止，已與市場共享。

Our plan is, we expect to average $200 million of CapEx each year between now and through 2027, plus or minus. So in terms of debottlenecking and what are the opportunities, I would say we're nowhere near really fully exhausting the opportunities and improving the production efficiencies and flows in our business. And I think that it's fair to say that those opportunities exist throughout the business.

我們的計劃是，從現在到 2027 年（上下），我們預計每年平均資本支出為 2 億美元。因此，就消除瓶頸和機會而言，我想說，我們還遠遠沒有真正完全利用這些機會並提高我們業務的生產效率和流程。我認為可以公平地說，這些機會存在於整個企業中。

And it starts with melt. And so unlocking the melt capacity, like we have been working on, and we saw significant steps forward in Q1, that is the first step in really unlocking the bottlenecks in this business. So it's very, very exciting.

它從融化開始。因此，釋放熔化能力，就像我們一直在努力的那樣，我們在第一季看到了重大進展，這是真正釋放該業務瓶頸的第一步。所以這非常非常令人興奮。

I talk about it's effectively free capacity. And whatever debottlenecking investments that we're making and support of increasing this flow is subsumed in our CapEx guidance that I just mentioned. So it's not incremental to it. And then could you repeat your question around share buybacks?

我談論的是它的有效自由容量。無論我們正在進行哪些消除瓶頸的投資以及對增加這一流量的支持，都包含在我剛才提到的資本支出指南中。所以它不是增量的。那麼您能重複一下有關股票回購的問題嗎？

Sir. Yes, it was more about what's the cadence that we might want to expect? Or does your board think about it in terms of a steady state or opportunistic?

先生。是的，更多的是我們想要期待的節奏是什麼？還是你的董事會是從穩定狀態還是機會主義的角度來考慮這個問題的？

I would say a combination. What we try to do with our Board is really look at things on an annual basis based upon our planned liquidity and cash generation. we make a recommendation to the Board in terms of a level of CapEx, delevering and share buybacks. That balanced deployment strategy I've talked about. And so it's typical to talk to the Board about that earlier in the year.

我會說一個組合。我們試圖與董事會一起做的事情實際上是根據我們計劃的流動性和現金產生情況每年進行一次審查。我們就資本支出、去槓桿化和股票回購水準向董事會提出建議。我剛才談到的平衡部署策略。因此，通常會在今年稍早與董事會討論此事。

And that's what we did this year. Actually, we accelerated a little bit and did it at the end of last year. And that worked out extremely well. We repurchased shares early enough in Q1 before the run-up in our stock that probably saved us $15 million to $20 million because of that being proactive on that Timna. In terms of being opportunistic, the short answer there is, yes, we would expect to be opportunistic and to have a cadence. Opportunistic, this is a great example.

這就是我們今年所做的。事實上，我們加快了一點，去年年底就做到了。效果非常好。我們在第一季股價上漲之前就很早就回購了股票，這可能為我們節省了 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，因為我們對 Timna 採取了積極主動的態度。就機會主義而言，簡短的回答是，是的，我們期望成為機會主義的並且有節奏。機會主義，這是一個很好的例子。

So we expanded the 2024 program of $150 million that was originally planned to be executed late in the year, while we pulled that forward for a number of reasons, a number of really good reasons. Now we're seeing this very healthy cash generation profile for the rest of the year. We would go back to our board and have conversations around them -- around the topic with them, should we allocate more capital for additional share repurchases this year.

因此，我們將原計劃於今年年底執行的 2024 年計劃擴大了 1.5 億美元，但我們出於多種原因推遲了這一計劃，一些非常好的理由。現在我們看到今年剩餘時間的現金生成情況非常健康。我們將回到董事會並圍繞他們進行對話 - 圍繞我們今年是否應該分配更多資本進行額外股票回購的話題。

But it is important to remember as we think about capital deployment and cash generation, the idea of having a balanced deployment strategy is not a one-off, 1-year or 2-year kind of strategy. So investing for growth, investing for delevers and returning capital to our shareholders is something that is a continuation in our business.

但重要的是要記住，當我們考慮資本部署和現金產生時，平衡部署策略的想法不是一次性的、一年或兩年期的策略。因此，投資成長、投資槓桿以及向股東返還資本是我們業務的延續。

And our next question comes from Gautam Khanna of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

And congrats, Bob and Kim.

恭喜鮑伯和金。

Yes. It's been a quick 6 years. That's for sure, but I'm confident go and...

是的。時間過得真快，六年了。這是肯定的，但我有信心去…

Yes, it's been click, and I was just thinking., I finally stopped calling you Rich and now you're leaving. So...

是的，已經點擊了，我只是在想，我終於不再叫你里奇了，現在你要走了。所以...

Well, obviously, don't call Kim Bob.

好吧，顯然，不要打電話給金鮑伯。

Exactly who knows what will happen. But I wanted to just revisit what you said in your prepared remarks on 737 and destocking. And I was wondering if you could -- maybe I missed it, but explicitly, has there -- this has had no impact on lead times, nickel billets on your titanium airframe shipments, et cetera. Is that true like there's just -- it's entirely -- you have seen a change in schedule, but it's been entirely offset by the other programs. Is that a fair characterization?

到底誰知道會發生什麼事。但我想回顧一下您在準備好的有關 737 和去庫存的評論中所說的話。我想知道你是否可以——也許我錯過了，但明確地說，有——這對交貨時間、鈦機身運輸中的鎳坯等沒有影響。這是真的嗎？ 就像是——完全是——你看到了日程安排的變化，但它完全被其他計劃所抵消。這是一個公平的描述嗎？

Yes. So you raised the question on 2 different alloy series and they have slightly different answers. So I'll take the titanium side, and I'll let Kim add the color on the nickel side because I think it's important to differentiate the 2. So when it comes to titanium, the 737 MAX as much as we love it, it really is much more of an aluminum-intensive vehicle as they say.

是的。所以你提出了關於兩種不同合金系列的問題，他們的答案略有不同。所以我會選擇鈦金屬一側，然後讓 Kim 在鎳一側添加顏色，因為我認為區分 2 種很重要。說，它實際上更像是一種鋁密集型車輛。

And so I would say the uptick in the widebody space is more than offsetting the downside on the 737. So I would say what we see at the moment is stability in the order pattern from the guys in Seattle. So yes, a little bit down on the 37, starting to see the up on the wide-body. So the message on titanium, I think in the air structures in the United States is stable with an upward bias. And so we haven't seen it go down.

所以我想說寬體機領域的成長足以抵消 737 的下降。 所以我想說我們目前看到的是來自西雅圖的訂單模式的穩定性。所以，是的，在 37 上稍微下降了一點，開始看到寬體上的上升。因此，關於鈦的消息，我認為在美國的空氣結構中是穩定的，有向上的傾向。所以我們還沒有看到它下降。

We've just seen it stabilize, but we are definitely seeing interest in the second half, which is also an indication of the build rates of 2025 given the lead times of 12 to 15 months. So we are seeing that activity. It helps when A350s are going to go to 12 from 10, that will be exciting, and we are looking forward to the day when they deliver 10, 787s a month.

我們剛剛看到它穩定下來，但我們肯定會看到下半年的興趣，這也表明了 2025 年的建造率，因為交付週期為 12 至 15 個月。所以我們正在看到這種活動。當 A350 飛機從 10 架增加到 12 架時，這會有所幫助，這將是令人興奮的，我們期待他們每月交付 10 架 787 飛機的那一天。

And -- so we're starting to see that activity. So that's kind of the titanium story. Kim, you want to fill in Gautam's question on the nickel side?

而且——所以我們開始看到這種活動。這就是鈦的故事。 Kim，你想回答高塔姆關於鎳的問題嗎？

Sure. Yes, because that kind of leads us to the engine side and the LEAP-1B. And as I mentioned, there has been some modifications, and we're staying aligned with our customers. But as we look at it, it's more of a modifying of the growth but we're still seeing growth. And so instead of maybe 20% to 25% growth, it's closer to like 10% to 15% growth that we're going to continue to see from the LEAP program overall that includes that LEAP-1A and the 1C for that matter.

當然。是的，因為這樣我們就可以看到引擎側和 LEAP-1B。正如我所提到的，我們進行了一些修改，並且我們與客戶保持一致。但當我們看到它時，這更多的是對成長的修改，但我們仍然看到成長。因此，我們將繼續從包括 LEAP-1A 和 1C 在內的 LEAP 計畫整體中看到，成長可能不是 20% 到 25%，而是接近 10% 到 15%。

When you look -- as we look out over these different programs, as I mentioned, there are a couple of things happening. The widebody is bringing the Rolls-Royce demand forward. And so they're looking at some of their large engines and how do they support that. So there's a lot of activity there. And then the GTF overhauls, obviously, they want to get through that overhaul and replacement as fast as possible. And so that's ramping very quickly.

正如我所提到的，當我們觀察這些不同的計劃時，會發生一些事情。寬體客機正在推動勞斯萊斯的需求向前發展。因此，他們正在研究一些大型引擎以及它們如何支援這些引擎。所以那裡有很多活動。然後GTF進行大修，顯然，他們希望盡快完成大修和更換。所以這個成長速度非常快。

And any capacity that we have that can go to helping them move through that program quicker is going to be used. So yes, we don't have a lot of concern as we look at this. It's a more slight modification of their that 1B ramp rate and everything else seems to be very robust and growing.

我們將使用任何可以幫助他們更快完成該計劃的能力。所以，是的，我們在看待這個問題時並沒有太多擔憂。這是對 1B 斜坡率的更細微修改，其他一切似乎都非常強勁且不斷增長。

And just as a follow-up, Kim, have the -- what are the nickel billet lead times at this point? I think last quarter, we were thinking over 60 weeks. Is that fairly consistent?

作為後續行動，Kim，現在的鎳坯交貨時間是多少？我想上個季度，我們思考了 60 多週。這相當一致嗎？

Yes. We do have some -- there are some products that are over 70 weeks. I do think Don mentioned some of the work that we're doing on productivity and debottlenecking. And so I'd say 12 to 15 months still, but we are working and we are seeing some capacity increases that are allowing us to pull some of those orders in and frankly, using those to react to emergent demands that our customers are having that they need to get a little bit further up in line to help them out. So we're still in that same range. We do have some investments coming on that will help that lead time, but it's still kind of in that 12 to 15 months.

是的。我們確實有一些——有些產品的有效期超過 70 週。我確實認為唐提到了我們在生產力和消除瓶頸方面所做的一些工作。所以我想說仍然需要 12 到 15 個月，但我們正在努力，我們看到產能有所增加，這使我們能夠拉取其中一些訂單，坦率地說，利用這些訂單來應對客戶的緊急需求他們需要排得更遠一些才能幫助他們擺脫困境。所以我們仍然在同一範圍內。我們確實正在進行一些投資，這將有助於縮短交貨時間，但仍需要 12 到 15 個月的時間。

We have no further questions. So I'll turn the call back over to Dave Weston for any closing comments.

我們沒有其他問題了。因此，我會將電話轉回戴夫·韋斯頓 (Dave Weston)，以徵求結束意見。

Thanks, everyone, for your time today. Please reach out to our Investor Relations team today with any follow-up questions. And with that, thank you very much again, and have a great day.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。如有任何後續問題，請立即聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。在此，再次非常感謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。