ATI Inc (ATI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the ATI Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. My name is Alex. I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 ATI 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。我的名字叫亞歷克斯。我今天將協調通話。 （操作員說明）

I now hand it over to your host, Dave Weston, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將其交給東道主投資者關係副總裁戴夫·韋斯頓 (Dave Weston)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to ATI's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's discussion is being broadcast on our website. Participating in today's call to share key points from our third quarter results, are Bob Wetherbee, Board, Chair and CEO; and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 ATI 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的討論正在我們的網站上播出。董事會、董事長兼執行長 Bob Wetherbee 參加了今天的電話會議，分享了我們第三季業績的要點；執行副總裁兼財務長唐紐曼 (Don Newman)。

Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook. It can be found on our website at atimaterials.com. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the lines for questions.

在開始我們準備好的演講之前，我想提請您注意本次電話會議附帶的補充簡報。這些幻燈片為我們的結果和前景提供了更多的色彩和細節。您可以在我們的網站 atimaterials.com 上找到它。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。

As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the slide presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Bob.

提醒一下，所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種假設和警告的影響。這些在收益報告和幻燈片簡報中都有提及。現在我將把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Q3 marked another solid quarter of A&D growth and continued margin expansion for ATI. This morning, I'll highlight 3 major points: First, aerospace and defense market demand for ATI products is strong, and we expect continued growth for years to come; second, our transformational actions are driving meaningfully improved results, better still, we're in the early stages of the journey with many benefits yet to come; third, our strong execution is delivering for our customers and shareholders.

謝謝，戴夫。大家，早安。第三季標誌著 A&D 又一個強勁的季度成長，ATI 的利潤率持續擴張。今天上午，我將重點放在三點：第一，航空航太和國防市場對ATI產品的需求強勁，我們預計未來幾年將持續成長；其次，我們的轉型行動正在推動有意義的成果，更好的是，我們正處於這趟旅程的早期階段，還有許多好處尚未到來；第三，我們強大的執行力正在為我們的客戶和股東帶來回報。

And now some insights into each of these. First up, the continued strong aerospace and defense market demand for ATI's products. Order lead times for some specialty product lines are out as far as the first quarter of 2025 and we're still years away from peak airframe build rates as recent world events reinforce safety, security and sustained performance remain more important than ever.

現在對其中每一個都有一些見解。首先，航空航太和國防市場對 ATI 產品的需求持續強勁。一些特種產品線的訂單交付時間最早可達2025 年第一季度，而且我們距離機身建造率峰值還需要數年時間，因為最近的世界事件強化了安全性和持續性能仍然比以往任何時候都更加重要。

ATI is well positioned to deliver on this expectation. We have the right products, the right capabilities and the right team. A&D sales hit 61% in the third quarter, up from 58% in Q2. This is an all-time record for ATI, and we're well on our way to our 65% target.

ATI 完全有能力實現這項期望。我們擁有合適的產品、合適的能力和合適的團隊。第三季 A&D 銷售額達到 61%，高於第二季的 58%。這是 ATI 的歷史記錄，我們正朝著 65% 的目標邁進。

What drove this expansion? Another significant step-up in airframe demand, notably in titanium. Shipments of airframe materials surpassed $200 million in the third quarter. That's up more than 50% from the third quarter last year. It's a new record for us, surpassing our prior Q2 2019 high watermark.

是什麼推動了這種擴張？機身需求的另一個顯著成長，尤其是鈦合金。第三季機身材料出貨量超過2億美元。比去年第三季成長了 50% 以上。這對我們來說是一個新記錄，超過了我們之前 2019 年第二季的高水位線。

How do we achieve this? Ramping build rates, realization of well-earned share gains and a lot of hard work industry analysts commonly referred to as operational execution. Our increased titanium melt capacity in Oregon has been a critical enabler to our top line growth. The modest investment to restart these 3 furnaces, coupled with additional steps that optimize overall melt throughput helped expand our titanium melt capacity by 35% over the 2022 baseline. It's now producing at full run rate.

我們如何實現這項目標？提高構建速度、實現應有的份額收益以及許多行業分析師通常所說的運營執行的辛勤工作。我們在俄勒岡州增加的鈦熔體產能是我們營收成長的關鍵推動因素。重啟這 3 座熔爐的適度投資，再加上優化整體熔體吞吐量的額外措施，幫助我們將鈦熔體產能在 2022 年基準基礎上擴大了 35%。現在全速生產。

Customer commitments for ATI titanium are so strong that we're currently bringing online a fourth and most likely the last furnace at that same Oregon melt facility. This additional furnace will produce high-value specialty titanium alloys that are in fierce demand by our customers with critical applications. It fills another gap left by the much discussed geopolitical disruption to the supply chain.

客戶對 ATI 鈦合金的承諾非常強烈，因此我們目前正在同一俄勒岡州熔煉工廠投入第四座熔爐，很可能是最後一座熔爐。這個額外的熔爐將生產高價值的特殊鈦合金，我們的關鍵應用客戶對這些合金有強烈的需求。它填補了備受討論的地緣政治供應鏈中斷留下的另一個空白。

This latest incremental step, coupled with highly efficient execution by our operating team will enable an additional $50 million in titanium revenue per year. We're on track to ramp capacity in the first half of 2024, reaching that higher full run rate in the second half. This investment falls within our existing CapEx guidance.

這一最新的增量步驟，加上我們營運團隊的高效執行，將使每年的鈦收入額外增加 5,000 萬美元。我們預計在 2024 年上半年提高產能，並在下半年達到更高的滿載運轉率。這項投資符合我們現有的資本支出指南。

All in, we've increased titanium capacity by 45% through restarts and optimizations, up from the 35% we previously forecast. And we still have our Richland, Washington melt expansion coming online in 2025.

總而言之，透過重啟和優化，我們將鈦產能提高了 45%，高於我們先前預測的 35%。我們的華盛頓州里奇蘭熔煉擴建工程仍將在 2025 年上線。

How strong is titanium demand today? In just 12 months, total ATI titanium sales are up approximately 75%. It's an incredible ramp, strong demand, customer commitments and these timely and efficient capacity additions, some cases, we're the only game in town. And the stronger bottom line results are clearly ahead for us. Pretty exciting time to be part of ATI.

如今鈦的需求有多強勁？在短短 12 個月內，ATI 鈦合金總銷售額成長了約 75%。這是令人難以置信的成長、強勁的需求、客戶的承諾以及這些及時有效的產能增加，在某些情況下，我們是城裡唯一的遊戲。更強勁的獲利結果顯然就在我們面前。成為 ATI 的一員真是令人興奮。

Let's move to my second point. Our transformational actions are making a difference. They're delivering increased profitability with more room to expand. ATI's transformation, which began in the depths of COVID is driving meaningful results in the business today. This was another quarter of sequential EBITDA growth and margin improvement.

讓我們轉向我的第二點。我們的變革行動正在發揮作用。他們正在提供更高的獲利能力和更大的擴張空間。 ATI 在新冠疫情期間開始的轉型正在為當今的業務帶來有意義的成果。這是 EBITDA 連續成長和利潤率改善的另一個季度。

HPMC's EBITDA margins hit 21.5% in Q3. We're making great and steady progress. By 2025, we target delivering HPMC margins consistently in the low to mid-20% range. We're working every day to accelerate shipments, debottleneck and streamline operations and optimize flow times throughout the system. As this high-value material works its way through ATI's finishing facilities, downstream operations are being tested and are delivering more than ever before.

HPMC 第三季的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 21.5%。我們正在取得巨大而穩定的進展。到 2025 年，我們的目標是 HPMC 利潤率始終保持在 20% 的低至中水平範圍內。我們每天都在努力加快出貨速度、消除瓶頸、簡化營運並優化整個系統的流程時間。隨著這種高價值材料通過 ATI 的精加工設施，下游操作正在接受測試，並且交付量比以往任何時候都多。

We're not immune to challenges, new bottlenecks emerge and sometimes legacy electrical transformers fail. That was the case at our Lockport, New York melt operation in Q3. While the operating team got the power back on relatively quickly, the outage created a potential divot in our Q4 shipments. The team has responded aggressively taking steps to significantly offset what otherwise would be a Q4 bottom line impact.

我們不能倖免於挑戰，新的瓶頸會出現，有時傳統的電力變壓器也會出現故障。第三季我們位於紐約洛克波特的熔化工廠就是這種情況。雖然營運團隊相對較快地恢復了供電，但停電對我們第四季度的出貨量造成了潛在的影響。該團隊已積極採取措施，以顯著抵消第四季度利潤的影響。

Strong demand means we've been running hard. So we're increasing our focus on preventive maintenance to ensure consistent operations. In our Advanced Alloys & Solutions segment, aerospace and defense mix continues to improve. It reached 35% in Q3. That's 8 points higher than a year ago. That's good news when you think about long-term growth opportunities for these markets.

強勁的需求意味著我們一直在努力。因此，我們更加重視預防性維護，以確保一致的運作。在我們的先進合金和解決方案領域，航空航太和國防組合不斷改善。第三季達到35%。比一年前高出 8 個百分點。當您考慮這些市場的長期成長機會時，這是個好消息。

Industrial demand softened. We know that's caused by transitory conditions. Operationally, we've taken actions to align our near-term cost structure with this lower demand. Commercially, we're focused on optimizing our product mix. It's another reminder why being an aerospace and defense leader is at the core of our strategy. We're at our best in markets with long-term growth potential, where ATI's differentiated capabilities are critical to our customers' success and where the returns generated reflect the essential value of those materials.

工業需求疲軟。我們知道這是由暫時條件引起的。在營運方面，我們已採取行動，使我們的近期成本結構與這種較低的需求保持一致。在商業上，我們專注於優化我們的產品組合。這再次提醒我們為什麼成為航空航太和國防領導者是我們戰略的核心。我們在具有長期成長潛力的市場中處於最佳狀態，在這些市場中，ATI 的差異化能力對於我們客戶的成功至關重要，並且所產生的回報反映了這些材料的基本價值。

What else are we doing to transform? In October, we announced that we have reduced our qualified pension obligations by 85% through annuitization and made additional contributions, which we expect will fully fund the remaining 15%.

我們還要做哪些轉型？ 10 月份，我們宣布透過年金化將合格退休金義務減少了 85%，並繳納了額外繳款，我們預計這將為剩餘的 15% 提供全額資金。

Let me take a second to be really clear here. This is a huge milestone for us and for the team at ATI. We worked on this a long time. We've talked about it in almost every earnings call for 5, 6, 7, maybe a decade years. But we've been very deliberate in getting here, meeting our commitments to our retirees and to our shareholders. And I'm pleased that we're at this point, appreciate the team's hard work and diligent preparation for something like an annuitization for what we accomplished. It's great.

讓我花一點時間在這裡說清楚。對於我們和 ATI 團隊來說，這是一個巨大的里程碑。我們在這方面工作了很長時間。五年、六年、七年甚至十年來，我們幾乎在每次財報電話會議上都討論過這個問題。但我們一直非常謹慎地到達這裡，履行我們對退休人員和股東的承諾。我很高興我們現在處於這一階段，感謝團隊的辛勤工作和辛勤的準備，例如我們所取得的成就的年金。這很棒。

This transaction significantly derisks ATI's balance sheet and enhances our ability to generate substantial cash flow going forward. As we shared this pension annuitization of greatest benefit to the AA&S segment where we should see meaningfully lower pension expense starting this quarter.

這項交易大大降低了 ATI 的資產負債表風險，並增強了我們未來產生大量現金流的能力。正如我們所分享的，這種退休金年金化對 AA&S 部門帶來的最大好處是，從本季開始，我們應該會看到退休金支出大幅下降。

My third point today, ATI continues to deliver. Our adjusted earnings per share were $0.55. This is above the midpoint of our August guidance. We see this momentum continuing into 2025 and beyond.

我今天的第三點是，ATI 繼續兌現承諾。我們調整後的每股收益為 0.55 美元。這高於我們 8 月指導的中點。我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2025 年及以後。

Now Don will take us through the financials and talk a bit about Q4 and what's ahead. Then I'll be back to close out and take us into the Q&A. Don?

現在，唐將帶我們了解財務狀況，並談論第四季和未來的情況。然後我會回來結束並帶我們進入問答環節。大學教師？

Thank you, Bob. Our third quarter reinforces our strong foundation, rooted and growing A&D content. It's serving us well. Our adjusted EPS of $0.55 per share outperformed the midpoint of our guidance. Keep in mind, the prior guidance did not include $0.03 of interest expense related to debt supporting the pension annuitization and funding.

謝謝你，鮑伯。第三季鞏固了我們堅實的基礎、根深蒂固且不斷成長的 A&D 內容。它為我們服務得很好。我們的調整後每股收益為 0.55 美元，超出了我們指導的中位數。請記住，先前的指導不包括與支持退休金年金和資金的債務相關的 0.03 美元利息支出。

The strength of our A&D business allowed us to increase total adjusted EBITDA margin while delivering our fifth consecutive quarter of revenue above $1 billion. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter and beyond, the resiliency of our performance and growth continues to carry our business and support value creation.

我們的 A&D 業務實力使我們能夠提高調整後 EBITDA 總利潤率，同時實現連續第五個季度的收入超過 10 億美元。展望第四季及以後，我們的業績和成長的彈性將繼續支撐我們的業務並支持價值創造。

In HPMC, our A&D content increased 200 basis points to 85%, supporting an increase of EBITDA margin to 21.5%. The mix, pricing and performance of this segment, all in line with current market conditions and the optimization of ATI around this building demand.

在 HPMC 中，我們的 A&D 含量增加了 200 個基點，達到 85%，支持 EBITDA 利潤率增加到 21.5%。該細分市場的組合、定價和性能，都符合當前的市場狀況以及 ATI 圍繞這一建築需求的最佳化。

EBITDA margins in our AA&S segment at 10.4% reflect the previously communicated seasonal Q3 outages, which impacted the quarter's margins by approximately 200 basis points. AA&S margins should increase in the fourth quarter driven by our production cycle and continued growth in our A&D and A&D like markets.

我們的 AA&S 部門的 EBITDA 利潤率為 10.4%，反映了先前通報的第三季季節性停電，這對該季度的利潤率產生了約 200 個基點的影響。在我們的生產週期以及我們的 A&D 和 A&D 類市場的持續成長的推動下，AA&S 利潤率應該會在第四季度有所增長。

We will also see initial benefits from the recent pension actions. I would also note that we are ahead of our SRP transformation time line, and we remain confident in our ability in delivering AA&S's 2025 EBITDA margins in the mid- to upper teen percentage range.

我們也將看到最近的退休金行動帶來的初步好處。我還要指出的是，我們已經提前完成了 SRP 轉型時間表，並且我們對將 AA&S 的 2025 年 EBITDA 利潤率實現在中上青少年百分比範圍內的能力仍然充滿信心。

Turning to the balance sheet. We have a lot in motion as we continue to reshape this business for strong future cash generation. Managed working capital remains a focal point. Despite the level remaining near 40% of sales through Q3, we project meaningful improvement to manage working capital levels in Q4. This will be driven by inventory reductions as well as receivable and payable performance.

轉向資產負債表。我們正在採取許多行動，繼續重塑這項業務，以實現未來強勁的現金產生。管理營運資本仍是焦點。儘管第三季的水平仍佔銷售額的 40% 左右，但我們預計第四季度的營運資金水準管理將得到有意義的改善。這將受到庫存減少以及應收帳款和應付帳款績效的推動。

Those initiatives are in process as we speak. Inventory is a key target area for improvement as demand in our front-end melt capacity increase, our team is optimizing that growth as it flows through to finished product and testing.

截至我們發言時，這些措施正在進行中。隨著我們前端熔體產能需求的增加，庫存是一個需要改進的關鍵目標領域，我們的團隊正在優化這種成長，因為它流向成品和測試。

We anticipate year-end managed working capital will be between 31% and 32% of sales. This is slightly higher than our previous expectations, but we expect to largely offset that impact through CapEx management and performance in other areas. Therefore, we are narrowing our full year free cash flow guidance range to $130 million to $160 million. Q4 cash flow should be very strong.

我們預計年底管理營運資金將佔銷售額的 31% 至 32%。這略高於我們先前的預期，但我們預計將透過其他領域的資本支出管理和績效在很大程度上抵消這一影響。因此，我們將全年自由現金流指引範圍縮小至 1.3 億美元至 1.6 億美元。第四季的現金流應該非常強勁。

While talking about the balance sheet, I want to further highlight the impact of our recent pension actions, including the annuitization. You'll recall, we've taken many steps to reduce exposure over the past several years. Even so, our pension assets and liabilities still represented an element of forward risk for our shareholders, driven by market forces beyond our direct control.

在談論資產負債表時，我想進一步強調我們最近的退休金行動（包括年金化）的影響。您可能還記得，過去幾年我們採取了許多措施來減少暴露。即便如此，我們的退休金資產和負債仍然代表著我們股東的遠期風險因素，這是由我們無法直接控制的市場力量所驅動的。

With the pension annuitization, approximately 85% of that risk has been successfully transferred out of ATI to a trusted and fully qualified third party. As a result of additional planned contributions, we expect our remaining obligations to be fully funded. As such, we no longer expect to make any material cash contributions to the qualified pension plans.

透過退休金年金化，約 85% 的風險已成功從 ATI 轉移到值得信賴且完全合格的第三方。由於計劃中的額外捐款，我們預計我們的剩餘債務將獲得全額資助。因此，我們不再期望向合格退休金計劃提供任何實質現金捐助。

I also want to emphasize that the annuitization and other pension actions taken in 2023 are expected to deliver substantial earnings benefits. Specifically, we expect to see annual pension expense drop more than $45 million from pre-annuitization run rates. These glide path steps have delivered the outcome that we were striving for. This largely gets us out of the pension business.

我還想強調，2023 年採取的年金化和其他退休金行動預計將帶來可觀的收入福利。具體來說，我們預計年度退休金支出將比年金化前運行率下降超過 4,500 萬美元。這些滑行路徑步驟已經實現了我們所追求的結果。這很大程度上讓我們退出了退休金業務。

Our cash balance exceeds $400 million following this activity. With a strong fourth quarter for cash flow, our outlook for net debt will only improve going forward. We intend to continue to deliver a balanced capital deployment strategy, funding growth while also delevering and returning capital to shareholders.

此次活動後，我們的現金餘額超過 4 億美元。由於第四季現金流強勁，我們對淨債務的前景只會有所改善。我們打算繼續實施平衡的資本配置策略，為成長提供資金，同時去槓桿化並將資本返還給股東。

To that end, we purchased approximately $45 million in outstanding shares in the third quarter and expect to complete our remaining authorization of $30 million in the fourth quarter. We expect this cycle will continue and strengthen in the future with growth, performance and reduced volatility on our balance sheet moving forward.

為此，我們在第三季購買了約 4,500 萬美元的已發行股票，並預計在第四季完成剩餘的 3,000 萬美元授權。我們預計，隨著我們資產負債表的成長、績效和波動性的減少，這個週期將在未來持續並加強。

Let's take a closer look at our guidance for the remainder of 2023. As we estimated previously and reinforced with these results, we're tracking towards a strong fourth quarter and should carry momentum into 2024. As we approach the end of the year, we're tightening our guidance range for full year EPS to $2.20 to $2.30 per share, holding the previous midpoint of $2.25 per share.

讓我們仔細看看我們對2023 年剩餘時間的指導。正如我們之前估計的那樣，並透過這些結果得到強化，我們正在朝著強勁的第四季度邁進，並應將這一勢頭延續到2024 年。隨著年底的臨近，我們將全年 EPS 指引範圍收緊至每股 2.20 美元至 2.30 美元，維持先前每股 2.25 美元的中點。

At this midpoint, our Q4 EPS was center at $0.62, representing the highest quarterly result for 2023. Robust A&D demand and increasing capacity along with optimized cycles and performance point to this high water mark in EPS as we look ahead.

在此中點，我們第四季度的每股收益中心為0.62 美元，代表2023 年的最高季度業績。展望未來，強勁的A&D 需求和不斷增加的產能以及優化的周期和性能表明每股收益將達到這一高水位。

As I noted, our free cash flow estimate remains consistent with prior expectations. We're balancing the working capital pressure driven by our increase in sales with continued prudence and tight discipline of our capital investment. All significant expansions and projects, including our newly announced classified facility for additive manufacturing remain on schedule.

正如我所指出的，我們的自由現金流估計與先前的預期保持一致。我們正在平衡銷售成長帶來的營運資金壓力與持續審慎和嚴格的資本投資紀律。所有重大擴建和項目，包括我們新宣布的積層製造分類設施，均按計劃進行。

With that, we are still able to lower our current year capital expenditures to a range of $190 million to $210 million. While we're not yet providing formal guidance for 2024, I will tell you that we see continued growth and expanding performance for next year, directionally in line with the targets we have previously outlined for 2025.

這樣，我們仍然能夠將本年度的資本支出降低至 1.9 億至 2.1 億美元的範圍。雖然我們尚未提供 2024 年的正式指導，但我會告訴您，我們預計明年將持續成長並擴大業績，方向與我們先前概述的 2025 年目標一致。

At our upcoming investor update on November 29, we intend to offer more clarity and visibility into this growth. We'll also provide new perspective and details on the continued upward trend for ATI through 2025 and beyond, including insights into our 2027 financial targets. We hope you'll join us in person at the New York Stock Exchange for that event. And by the way, registration is available on our website.

在 11 月 29 日即將發布的投資者更新中，我們打算更清晰、更直觀地介紹這一成長情況。我們還將提供有關 ATI 到 2025 年及以後持續上升趨勢的新觀點和詳細信息，包括對我們 2027 年財務目標的見解。我們希望您能親自到紐約證券交易所參加我們的活動。順便說一句，您可以在我們的網站上註冊。

With that, I will hand the call back over to Bob to conclude our opening remarks.

至此，我將把電話轉回給鮑勃，以結束我們的開場白。

Thanks, Don. These are truly exciting times for ATI, and I'm confident in our sustained momentum and trajectory. Best of all, even 2025 won't be the peak of growth for ATI. We have many more years of growth ahead with clear visibility and long-term agreements extending into the back half of the decade. We continue to shape our business to capitalize on increased demand while also insulating our business against future risk.

謝謝，唐。對於 ATI 來說，這是真正令人興奮的時刻，我對我們持續的動力和發展軌跡充滿信心。最重要的是，即使 2025 年也不會是 ATI 的成長頂峰。我們未來還有很多年的成長空間，擁有清晰的可見性和延續到本世紀後半段的長期協議。我們繼續塑造我們的業務，以利用不斷增長的需求，同時使我們的業務免受未來風險的影響。

I hope you'll join us later this month for our investor update in New York. As Don said, we'll talk a lot more about what that growth looks like and what it means for ATI and for our shareholders.

我希望您能在本月稍後參加我們在紐約舉行的投資者最新動態。正如 Don 所說，我們將更多地討論這種成長的情況以及它對 ATI 和我們的股東意味著什麼。

With that, let's open the line for questions. Operator, we're ready for the first question.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。接線員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

Our first question for today comes from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

I wanted to clarify the outlook for AA&S in the fourth quarter, Don. So I think you talked about in the release about assuming stable performance in the fourth quarter. But then in your remarks just now, you talked about margin improvement on the back of the pension, lower pension as well as not having Neology. So if you could just kind of square the two, what exactly you're assuming maybe top line and margins for AA&S in Q4?

我想澄清一下 AA&S 第四季的前景，Don。所以我認為您在新聞稿中談到了假設第四季度業績穩定。但在您剛才的演講中，您談到了退休金帶來的利潤率提高、退休金降低以及沒有 Neology。因此，如果您可以將兩者相乘，那麼您到底假設 AA&S 第四季的營收和利潤率是多少？

Yes. Great. Fair question. So for clarification, when we talk about stabilization, that was really a reference towards what we see in terms of sales trends. We've seen some headwinds around the industrial, but we also seen some tailwinds and good mix change in A&S related to their A&D exposure.

是的。偉大的。公平的問題。因此，需要澄清的是，當我們談論穩定時，這實際上是對我們在銷售趨勢方面看到的情況的參考。我們看到了工業領域的一些逆風，但我們也看到了與 A&D 業務相關的 A&S 的一些順風和良好的組合變化。

But when we look at that overall business Q3 to Q4, we're really looking at a stabilization from a top line standpoint. But you're right, when you look at the bottom line, you would expect, hey, if you posted 10.4% margins in Q3, are you saying you're going to expect similar margins in Q4. The short answer is no. We would expect that the EBITDA as well as the margin should improve in AA&S in Q4.

但當我們審視第三季到第四季的整體業務時，我們實際上是從營收的角度來看穩定的。但你是對的，當你看底線時，你會期望，嘿，如果你在第三季度公佈了 10.4% 的利潤率，你是說你會期望第四季度有類似的利潤率嗎？最簡潔的答案是不。我們預計第四季度 AA&S 的 EBITDA 和利潤率將會有所改善。

A couple of reasons to point to. One, Q3, we had some major outage costs, think in terms of $8 million to $10 million of those outage costs. Those won't repeat in Q4. Second good guide that we would expect in Q4 is tied to the pension. And we talked about the pension, $45 million good guy on a run rate basis. We will see some of that benefit hit us in Q4.

有幾個理由值得指出。第一，第三季度，我們有一些重大的停電成本，其中停電成本為 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元。這些不會在第四季重演。我們預計第四季度的第二個良好指南與退休金有關。我們還討論了退休金，按運行率計算，退休金為 4500 萬美元。我們將在第四季度看到其中的一些好處。

And when you think about the effect to AA&S, you want to break it down like this. That $45 million annualized breaks down to about $11 million plus per quarter. And we're not going to get a full quarter's worth of that benefit. Of that $11-plus million at the corporation, we're going to get somewhere between $7.5 million and $9.5 million just because it's a partial period.

當你考慮對 AA&S 的影響時，你想像這樣分解它。年化 4500 萬美元分解為每季約 1100 萬美元以上。我們不會獲得整個季度的收益。在公司這 11 萬多美元中，我們將獲得 750 萬至 950 萬美元，因為這是一個不完整的時期。

I think we're going to get the higher end of that element. When you break it down and say, okay, how much of that is AA&S? Think in terms of probably about 75% is AA&S's share. And then the rest would be split between corporate and HPMC. Does that help you a bit?

我認為我們將獲得該元素的高端。當你分解它並說，好吧，其中有多少是 AA&S？想想大概75%左右是AA&S的份額。然後其餘部分將由公司和 HPMC 分配。這對你有一點幫助嗎？

Yes, that's more than I was hoping for. A quick follow-up for Bob. So one of the large engine manufacturers, obviously, is to look to be replacing a lot of dips here over the next couple of years. Is there any incremental opportunity for you guys in terms of your forged disk to help out there and pick up some share?

是的，這超出了我的期望。鮑伯的快速跟進。因此，顯然，大型引擎製造商之一希望在未來幾年內更換大量引擎。你們在偽造磁碟方面是否有任何增量機會可以提供幫助並獲得一些份額？

Yes. Good question, David. And the simple answer -- we'll stick with simple answers and try to over-exceed your expectations today, David. I would say, yes. Near term, we're working very collaboratively with that engine producer to make sure their current flow paths continue to accelerate and flow well.

是的。好問題，大衛。簡單的答案——我們今天將堅持簡單的答案，並盡力超越您的期望，大衛。我會說，是的。短期內，我們正在與該引擎製造商密切合作，以確保他們當前的流動路徑繼續加速和流動良好。

Obviously, with the increase in shop visits, we're seeing extra spares as other things come our way. I think in cases like this, a lot of times you see second sourcing or backup sourcing opportunities for both raw materials and forgings. And we have a great relationship there that I think will build off.

顯然，隨著商店訪問量的增加，我們看到了額外的備用零件，因為我們收到了其他東西。我認為在這種情況下，很多時候你會看到原料和鍛件的二次採購或備用採購機會。我們在那裡建立了良好的關係，我認為這種關係將會進一步發展。

So I think in the near term, it's doing everything we can help them on the flow side. Longer term, yes, there's opportunities probably on the raw materials and the forgings. Within our CapEx guidance that we've given you, we actually just finished an upgrade of one of our older isothermal forged presses with some new upgrade and controls systems. So we feel pretty good about the upside for isothermal forging going into the engine. And those guys that relationship there can be a big part of that. So we're pretty excited about the upside. Probably we won't see until '25, '26, '27, but definitely on the right track.

所以我認為在短期內，我們會盡一切努力在流程方面幫助他們。是的，從長遠來看，原料和鍛件可能存在機會。在我們為您提供的資本支出指南中，我們實際上剛剛完成了一台舊等溫鍛造壓力機的升級，並配備了一些新的升級和控制系統。因此，我們對引擎等溫鍛造的優勢感到非常滿意。那些與那裡有關係的人可能是其中很大一部分。所以我們對它的好處感到非常興奮。也許我們要到 25 年、26 年、27 年才能看到，但絕對是在正確的軌道上。

Our next question comes from Richard Safran of Seaport Research. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自海港研究中心的理查德·薩夫蘭。請繼續。

So to the best you can, could you try to make an apples-to-apples comparison between 2022 EPS and what you're guiding to for '23. You strip out last year's favorable aviation credits this year. You had pension increase. Is it correct to say that EPS is close to a 50% increase. Now those are my words, but I thought maybe you would bridge 2022 with what you're seeing for 2023 kind of trying to apples-to-apples.

因此，您能否盡最大努力將 2022 年每股收益與您 23 年的預期進行同類比較。今年你取消了去年有利的航空積分。你的退休金增加了。 EPS 成長接近 50% 的說法是否正確？這些是我的話，但我想也許你會在 2022 年和 2023 年所看到的情況之間架起一座橋樑，進行同等的嘗試。

Rich, you've done all my math for me. So you're absolutely right. But for the benefit of the other folks on the call, let me -- I'm aligned with what you just said. So when you think about our 2022 performance, we posted a $1.99 EPS, but there were nonrecurring items that existed in there like COVID credits. And then we knew the pension expense was going to pop in 2023.

里奇，你已經幫我完成所有的數學計算了。所以你是完全正確的。但為了電話中其他人的利益，讓我——我同意你剛才所說的。因此，當您考慮我們 2022 年的業績時，我們發布了 1.99 美元的每股收益，但其中存在一些非經常性項目，例如新冠病毒積分。然後我們就知道退休金支出將在 2023 年激增。

If you pro forma for that, that gets you to about a 2022 EPS for full year at about $1.50, something in that range. And you compare that to the midpoint of the guidance, and this is the point that you're making, I believe, [Phil,] you point to the midpoint at $2.25, it implies about a 50% year-over-year increase in our earnings per share.

如果你預計，2022 年全年每股收益約為 1.50 美元，在這個範圍內。你將其與指導的中點進行比較，這就是你所提出的觀點，我相信，[Phil]，你指出中點為 2.25 美元，這意味著同比增長約 50%我們的每股收益。

And the good news there is, number one, it's a great indicator of the underlying growth that exists in this business really being driven in large part by aerospace and defense strategy. And the other good news is that we're not expecting it to stop. We expect further growth, and we'll talk about -- more about that when we're all together on November 29. But this -- the increase you saw in 2023's EPS, we think is a harbinger of good performance in the future as well.

好消息是，第一，這是一個很好的指標，表明該業務的潛在成長在很大程度上確實是由航空航天和國防戰略推動的。另一個好消息是我們預計它不會停止。我們預計會進一步成長，當我們 11 月 29 日聚在一起時，我們將更多地討論這一點。但是，我們認為 2023 年每股收益的成長是未來良好業績的預兆，因為出色地。

Okay. And then lastly is this, I think you talked previously about the transactional piece of the business, you were being more selective with it, high demand. I want to know if you could give a comment or 2 on the transactional part of the business, how that's trending and if the work you're getting is margin accretive.

好的。最後一點是，我想你之前談到了業務的交易部分，你對此更有選擇性，需求很高。我想知道您是否可以對業務的交易部分發表評論或2個評論，其趨勢如何，以及您獲得的工作是否可以增加利潤。

Rich, I can go first. Don can add if he wants to at the end here. But it's definitely accretive. We start there. We've never been known in the industry as the low-price guy. So we tend to see the value in the products. And we tend to be migrating to more of the challenging, more differentiated titanium and nickel alloys in that transactional business. The lead times are such that if you're a distributor or some of the smaller OEMs, we said earlier, probably in May, if you know anybody who is looking for titanium or nickel, they should get their orders on the books, and that's definitely happened. So it's accretive. We tend to migrate more to OEMs because of the lead times and less to the distribution channel.

里奇，我可以先走了。如果唐願意的話，可以在最後加上。但它絕對是有增值作用的。我們從那裡開始。我們在業界從來都不是以低價聞名的。所以我們更傾向於看到產品的價值。在該交易業務中，我們傾向於轉向更具挑戰性、更具差異化的鈦和鎳合金。交貨時間是這樣的，如果你是經銷商或一些較小的原始設備製造商，我們之前說過，可能是在五月，如果你認識任何人正在尋找鈦或鎳，他們應該在書上得到他們的訂單，那就是肯定發生了。所以它是有增值作用的。由於交貨時間的原因，我們傾向於更多地遷移到原始設備製造商，而不是遷移到分銷管道。

But I would say still strong and still some opportunity. Our strategy is not to be 100% contractual, our strategies to be in the 80% contractual, 20% transactional. And we're holding that mix pretty well, but we are being selective about what kind of alloys and what kind of systems we play. And then actually factored into our decision to start the fourth furnace in Oregon, which tends to be some of the more challenging alloys, but higher-value stuff, beta alloys, [Ti-5553], those kind of alloys as we move into the more sophisticated critical applications. So hopefully, that helps, but definitely accretive.

但我想說仍然很強大並且仍然有一些機會。我們的策略不是 100% 契約性，而是 80% 契約性、20% 交易性。我們很好地保持了這種混合，但我們正在對我們玩的合金類型和系統進行選擇性。然後實際上考慮到我們決定在俄勒岡州啟動第四個熔爐，這往往是一些更具挑戰性的合金，但價值更高的東西，β合金，[Ti-5553]，當我們進入更複雜的關鍵應用程式.希望這會有所幫助，但絕對會有所幫助。

Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。

Question is just on big picture on pricing and mix improvement. Is that expected to be a big driver in '24 and '25. It's obviously hard for us to see that and parse it out of the results. But I know intuitively, it's a big enabler to margin improvement. For instance, a company like is saying they're going to see about an $80 million increase next year, all of which goes to the bottom line, all else equal. So trying to just kind of see through in terms of how you all are thinking about that given the fact that you've got thousands of contracts.

問題只是關於定價和組合改進的大局。這預計將成為 24 和 25 年的主要推動力嗎？顯然我們很難看到這一點並從結果中解析它。但我直覺知道，這是提高利潤率的重要推手。例如，像這樣的公司表示，在其他條件相同的情況下，他們明年的收入將增加約 8,000 萬美元，所有這些都將計入利潤。因此，考慮到你們有數千份合同，我們試著了解一下你們是如何看待這個問題的。

Right. Yes. Fair question. So the short answer is, when you hear about some of our (inaudible) events, we're pretty confident we are not lagging at all in that regard. We are picking up our share. And as Bob said, we're typically not seen as a low cost option but a critical option in the industry.

正確的。是的。公平的問題。所以簡短的回答是，當您聽到我們的一些（聽不清楚）活動時，我們非常有信心在這方面我們一點也不落後。我們正在拿起我們的份額。正如鮑伯所說，我們通常不被視為低成本選擇，而是產業中的關鍵選擇。

In terms of how to think about it going forward, Phil, it's pretty clear to us. We've seen our A&D share percentage increasing, we had 61%. We see continued growth in 2024, 2025 and beyond 2025 when it comes to that strong aerospace growth. And then we've got some other end markets that we serve that have similar growth trajectories. So yes, the short answer is we expect that 2024 and beyond, we all expect to continue to see improving mix which should be a tailwind to our margins and our bottom line profits.

至於如何思考未來，菲爾，我們很清楚。我們看到我們的 A&D 份額不斷增加，達到 61%。我們預計航空航太業的強勁成長將在 2024 年、2025 年以及 2025 年後持續成長。然後我們服務的其他一些終端市場也有類似的成長軌跡。所以，是的，簡短的答案是，我們預計 2024 年及以後，我們都預計將繼續看到組合的改善，這應該會對我們的利潤率和底線利潤產生推動作用。

Is it just the mix shift? Or is there a real underlying pricing improvement as well?

僅僅是混合轉變嗎？或者是否也存在真正的潛在定價改善？

There is, to be clear, there's real underlying pricing as well. And we saw that -- we see that each period, especially when you look at HPMC and the A&D exposure that AA&S has. When it comes to that space, we have -- there's high demand, right? And that demand is not ebbed at all and so we've been pretty purposeful when it comes to ensuring that we're getting price where the opportunities are there. So it's not just mix. It is -- we are seeing price as well, and we'll continue to.

需要明確的是，還有真正的基礎定價。我們看到了這一點——我們看到了每個時期的情況，尤其是當你看到 HPMC 和 AA&S 的 A&D 曝險時。當談到這個領域時，我們有很高的需求，對嗎？而且這種需求根本沒有減弱，因此，在確保我們在有機會的地方獲得價格方面，我們一直非常有目的性。所以這不僅僅是混合。我們也看到了價格，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

And then secondly, you do have some near-term headwinds within energy. That was really strong for you the last couple of years. It seems to be sliding down a little bit. Are there any signs that, that's leveling out? And then also regarding the Stall business, and it's sort of been stuck in neutral here for a while. Any thoughts on if and when that turns the corner as well. That's it for me.

其次，能源領域近期確實面臨一些阻力。過去幾年這對你來說真的很強大。好像有一點點往下滑。有任何跡象表明情況正在趨於平穩嗎？然後還有關於攤位業務，它已經有一段時間處於中立狀態了。關於是否以及何時扭轉局面的任何想法。對我來說就是這樣。

Thanks, Bill. I'd say 2 questions in there. I would say on oil and gas, our day-to-day presence there is in the subsea umbilical flowlines kind of space and the feedback we get from our customers is that we're seeing the bottom of that here in Q3, Q4. I would say Q1 will be kind of an uptick, but not where we want it to be yet. But by Q2 of next year, we should be back to pretty good strength in the core part of our oil and gas. There's always projects, the big clad pipelines. There's some kind of in the queue there that could also hit about the same time.

謝謝，比爾。我會在那裡說2個問題。我想說的是，在石油和天然氣方面，我們的日常存在是在海底臍帶式出油管領域，我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋是，我們在第三季、第四季看到了底部。我想說第一季將會上升，但還沒有達到我們想要的水平。但到明年第二季度，我們的石油和天然氣核心部分應該會恢復到相當不錯的實力。總有項目，大型管道。隊列中有某種東西也可能在同一時間到達。

So I think we believe we're at the bottom with our customers as they destock. That's really the issue they're destocking here in Q3, Q4 and then start to ramp back up after the first of the year.

因此，我認為我們相信，當客戶減少庫存時，我們正處於最低潮。這確實是他們在第三季、第四季去庫存，然後在今年第一季後開始回升的問題。

When it comes to Stall, I would say we have definitely hit the bottom, and we're starting to actually see a few signs. Don and I have talked a lot about not projecting great uptick until we actually deliver a quarter of uptick. But I think we got to get through the Chinese New Year, but the signs are starting to be positive. It's not going to be a huge fast ramp back, but I think the signs are there that there's some positive economic signs in the markets electronics, that in particular, and those kinds of things in Asia. So more to come, but I would say by Q2 next year, we should see some meaningful improvement in China, in particular in our Precision Rolled strip business.

當談到失速時，我想說我們肯定已經觸底，我們開始真正看到一些跡象。唐和我已經討論過很多關於在我們實際實現四分之一的增長之前不要預測大幅增長的問題。但我認為我們必須度過農曆新年，但跡像已經開始積極。這不會是一個巨大的快速回升，但我認為有跡象表明電子市場存在一些積極的經濟跡象，特別是在亞洲的此類市場。未來還會有更多，但我想說，到明年第二季度，我們應該會看到中國出現一些有意義的改善，特別是在我們的精密軋製帶材業務方面。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。

Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask a little bit I wanted to ask a little bit about the engine end market -- so that -- it's like the sales were down a touch sequentially. I don't think anybody questions the direction of where this is going over the next few years. But as we think about the next few quarters, I think GE lowered the LEAP delivery guide for this year. Pratt obviously has to make some decisions about allocating resources between new engine builds and the shops. Do you get signals from the OEMs regarding the trajectory of that ramp and how steep it is? And has that changed at all over the past several months?

大家，早安。我想問一點我想問一點關於發動機終端市場的問題 - 所以 - 就像銷售額連續下降一樣。我認為沒有人質疑未來幾年的發展方向。但當我們考慮未來幾季時，我認為 GE 降低了今年的 LEAP 交付指南。普拉特顯然必須做出一些關於在新引擎製造和商店之間分配資源的決定。您是否從原始設備製造商那裡得到了有關斜坡軌跡及其坡度的信號？在過去的幾個月裡，這種情況有什麼改變嗎？

Good question. It's like 3 or 4 in there. Seth, I'll try to get to them, let's see. So I agree with you, the strength in engines is very positive. If you look year-to-date '23 versus year-to-date '22 we're up 30%. Remember, a lot of these orders got put on 10, 12, 14 months ago. So they didn't all get placed nice evenly, those kinds of things.

好問題。裡面好像有3、4個。賽斯，我會盡力聯絡他們，讓我們看看。所以我同意你的觀點，引擎的實力是非常正面的。如果你看看 23 年初至今與 22 年初至今，我們上漲了 30%。請記住，許多訂單是 10、12、14 個月前下的。所以它們並沒有均勻地放置，諸如此類。

I would say the indications we're getting are twofold. Number 1 is that the spares demand historically has been a kind of a 25% adder to our OEM demand. It's going to be 40%, 50% higher -- 40% to 50% of our business for 2 to 3 years to come based on the availability of new planes and certainly the wear and tear in the hours in those. I think the second issue, which Don alluded to a little bit earlier was when we talk about mix, one thing that's going to help us is the shift to widebody. The engine manufacturers in Europe are definitely moving in the right direction there on the wide-body side, and that's going to be a very positive for us. These are all nickel-based alloys, and we obviously had a little nickel fall off here.

我想說我們得到的跡像是雙重的。第一個是備件需求在歷史上一直是我們 OEM 需求的 25%。未來 2 到 3 年，我們的業務量將增加 40%、50%，40% 到 50%，取決於新飛機的可用性，當然還有這些飛機在飛行時間內的磨損情況。我認為唐早些時候提到的第二個問題是，當我們談論混合時，對我們有幫助的一件事是向寬體機的轉變。歐洲的引擎製造商在寬體方面肯定正在朝著正確的方向發展，這對我們來說是非常積極的。這些都是鎳基合金，顯然我們這裡有一點鎳脫落。

The price of nickel and the surcharges went down a little bit in Q3, and that will definitely come back. But to your point, long-term trends I think, are very positive. We've done our part to increase our titanium capacity. And I think nickel alloys will be tight going into 2024, 2025. But that's based on that forward demand signal. So we feel pretty good about where we are and well positioned across the industry.

第三季鎳價和附加費有所下降，肯定會回落。但就你的觀點而言，我認為長期趨勢是非常正面的。我們已經盡了自己的努力來增加我們的鈦產能。我認為鎳合金在 2024 年、2025 年將供應緊張。但這是基於遠期需求訊號。因此，我們對自己的現狀感到非常滿意，並且在整個行業中處於有利地位。

Great. Great. And maybe as a follow-up, you touched on the wide-body question in Engine. As we think about it on the airframe side, are you starting to see that ramp up kind of in earnest year? We've had -- Boeing talked about another 737 rate increase to roughly 5 a month, getting to the point where 777X production is going to start to pick up in anticipation of entry into service. What are you seeing on the airframe side for widebodies?

偉大的。偉大的。也許作為後續行動，您談到了引擎中的寬體問題。當我們從機身方面考慮時，您是否開始認真地看到這一年的成長？我們已經 - 波音公司談到將 737 的產量再次提高到每月約 5 架，達到了 777X 產量將開始回升的程度，預計將投入使用。您在寬體飛機的機身側看到了什麼？

Yes. I think from an airframe perspective, it's very strong. I would say we're -- on the mill product side. Through the COVID period, we actually expanded our presence on both sides of the Atlantic. So we're well positioned for both widebodies wherever they're made in the world. And we are seeing definite strength. I would say the 787 issue, we probably are seeing the raw material by equal to what they're talking about in terms of the uptick. It's pretty strong. It's not just double digits, it's 30%, 40%, 50%, depending on the product type.

是的。我認為從機身的角度來看，它非常堅固。我想說我們是在工廠產品方面。在新冠疫情期間，我們實際上擴大了在大西洋兩岸的業務。因此，我們為這兩款寬體飛機做好了充分的準備，無論它們是在世界各地生產的。我們看到了一定的實力。我想說的是 787 問題，我們可能會看到原料的上漲與他們所說的相同。這是相當強的。這不僅僅是兩位數，而是30%、40%、50%，取決於產品類型。

So I would say we're 12 months ahead of when they're going to use it in many cases. And we're seeing it. And we only produce to orders. We don't produce to the build forecast, as you know. You've heard us say that many times. But -- and we're not seeing a lot of cancellations, reschedules, that kind of stuff, a lot of emergent demand, right, we need a right away kind of stuff. So positive and we are well connected with, obviously, the OEMs, but a very positive trend.

所以我想說，我們比他們在很多情況下使用它提前了 12 個月。我們正在看到它。我們只按訂單生產。如您所知，我們不會按照建置預測進行生產。你已經聽我們說過很多次了。但是——我們沒有看到很多取消、重新安排等事情，很多緊急需求，對吧，我們需要立即的東西。如此積極，顯然我們與原始設備製造商有著良好的聯繫，但這是一個非常積極的趨勢。

Thank you -- our next question comes from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.

謝謝——我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

Wanted to point out, you're the only company in our coverage that actually used the R word. So just thought we'd probe that a little bit with recessionary risk. It seems like your point was really to say that that's outside of your focal area. So just also picked up a little bit of commentary about ability to kind of maybe pivot away from some of these lower-margin operations. And I just wanted a little bit more color on how that could proceed going forward and how that might contribute to your margin expansion you've talked about in AA&S?

我想指出的是，你們是我們報道中唯一一家實際使用 R 一詞的公司。所以我們只是想用衰退風險來探討這個問題。看起來你的意思其實是說這超出了你的注意力範圍。因此，我也收到了一些關於可能從這些低利潤業務轉移的能力的評論。我只是想更多地了解如何繼續推進，以及這如何有助於您在 AA&S 中談到的利潤擴張？

Well, I'll let Don talk a little bit about the margin expansion piece, but we use 2 words to start with our -- you heard the recessionary part, but that's really only about 15% of our AA&S segment. So it's a small part. We're spending a lot more time on the R part, that's the ramp, ramp, ramp in aerospace, right? So I think that's fair. But Don, how would you answer Tim this question around the margins.

好吧，我會讓 Don 談談利潤擴張部分，但我們用 2 個字來開頭——你聽說過經濟衰退部分，但這實際上只占我們 AA&S 部門的 15% 左右。所以這只是一小部分。我們在 R 部分花了更多的時間，那就是航空航太領域的坡道、坡道、坡道，對嗎？所以我認為這是公平的。但是唐，你會如何回答提姆這個邊緣問題。

Well, first, we've been pretty purposeful at changing the mix in the AA&S segment. And we've talked about the fact that we want to continue to shift away from the industrial exposures and really shift toward or A&D method. And so in that regard, just this last quarter, you would have seen that our A&D% share within AA&S increased about 800 basis points. And now the share within that segment is 35%. So more than 1/3 of that portfolio.

嗯，首先，我們非常有目的地改變 AA&S 領域的組合。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們希望繼續擺脫工業風險，並真正轉向 A&D 方法。因此，在這方面，就在上個季度，您會看到我們在 AA&S 中的 A&D% 份額增加了約 800 個基點。現在該細分市場的佔有率為 35%。超過該投資組合的 1/3。

So doing things like that is a key part of us, improving our margins. We've also been really purposeful in our transformation, changing our footprint, making sure that we're improving our flow paths, and really rightsizing cost structures in order to support this value-add strategy we're running, which should be beneficial. We're already seeing the benefits of that transformation, and there's more to come. So that's what I would share, Timna.

因此，做這樣的事情是我們的關鍵部分，提高我們的利潤。我們也非常有目的地進行轉型，改變我們的足跡，確保我們正在改善我們的流動路徑，並真正調整成本結構，以支持我們正在運行的增值策略，這應該是有益的。我們已經看到了這種轉變的好處，而且還會帶來更多好處。這就是我要分享的內容，蒂姆納。

Okay. That's what it seems like. I just to clarify that. It seems like you want to keep some optionality in some of these end markets like energy that should be on the come, but trying to deemphasize maybe some of the other areas, if that's a fair...

好的。看起來就是這樣。我只是為了澄清這一點。看來你想在一些終端市場中保留一些選擇權，例如應該出現的能源，但試圖淡化其他一些領域，如果這是公平的…

Absolutely right. You are absolutely right. And even within energy, by the way, there's specialty energy and there's oil and gas. Oil and gas, we view as more of that industrial demand commodity-driven whereas specialties is where we want to play. So we're being pretty refined and focused in terms of where we want to point this business.

絕對正確。你是絕對正確的。順便說一句，即使在能源領域，也有特殊能源、石油和天然氣。石油和天然氣，我們認為工業需求更多是由大宗商品驅動的，而特種產品是我們想要發揮的作用。因此，我們正在非常完善和專注於我們想要將這項業務定位到哪裡。

Okay. And then a follow-up, more of a modeling question. Just we didn't see a big decrease in the share count from the buybacks. And just in general, with great progress on reducing your pension liability there. Should we expect to see kind of an acceleration of buybacks going forward and see that share count come down?

好的。然後是後續的，更多的是建模問題。只是我們沒有看到回購帶來的股票數量大幅減少。總的來說，在減少退休金負債方面取得了巨大進展。我們是否應該期望看到未來回購加速並看到股票數量下降？

Yes, it's a fair assumption. So far, in the last 2 years, we've had $225 million of buyback programs. We're going to finish the current program. There's $30 million left on it, Timna, that's not the last program. Our focus is set this business up to generate max cash flow, and then we have a really clear, balanced strategy to grow the business with that capital to delever. And then we very much enjoy returning capital to shareholders. So imagine that, that is going to be a key to our deployment going forward.

是的，這是一個合理的假設。到目前為止，在過去的兩年裡，我們已經實施了價值 2.25 億美元的回購計畫。我們將完成當前的計劃。還剩 3000 萬美元，蒂姆納，這不是最後一個項目。我們的重點是讓這項業務產生最大的現金流，然後我們有一個非常清晰、平衡的策略，利用這些資本來發展業務，以實現去槓桿化。然後我們非常喜歡向股東返還資本。所以想像一下，這將成為我們未來部署的關鍵。

Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

I wanted to make sure I heard something right. Were there any operational challenges in the third quarter at HPMC?

我想確保我聽到的是正確的話。 HPMC 第三季是否有營運挑戰？

I would say there was one that we noted -- Bob actually noted in his prepared remarks, and that was we did have an outage in one our facilities -- the Lockport facility where we had a transformer outage. And that was actually a really good outcome, and I think a positive indicator. We -- when Bob mentioned it, he said, "Hey, this was an event that happened, but we're covering it when it comes to our earnings guidance for Q4.

我想說的是，我們注意到了一個問題——鮑勃實際上在他準備好的發言中指出了這一點，那就是我們的一個設施確實發生了停電——洛克波特設施，我們在那裡發生了變壓器停電。這實際上是一個非常好的結果，我認為這是一個積極的指標。當鮑伯提到這件事時，他說：「嘿，這是一個發生過的事件，但我們在第四季度的獲利指導中會對此進行報導。

So here are some key takeaways that I would mention. One is that was a transformer failure. It could have been an extended outage, but our team did an amazing job really getting it back online. So the outage is fully behind us, and it was in Q3. So a fair question, Gautam as well, so why did you -- why did you guys share it if you're going to cover the consequences of that outage? And number one, I think you're probably picking up -- transparency is very important to this management team. So we want to share with investors when events like that happen.

以下是我要提到的一些關鍵要點。一是變壓器故障。這可能是一次長時間的停電，但我們的團隊做得非常出色，確實讓它恢復了在線狀態。因此，停電已經完全過去了，而且是在第三季。這是一個公平的問題，高塔姆，那麼如果你們要承擔停電的後果，為什麼你們要分享它呢？第一，我想您可能會意識到—透明度對這個管理團隊來說非常重要。因此，當此類事件發生時，我們希望與投資者分享。

I think it's also a pretty good indicator, by the way, the financial and operational strength that we have in this business to be able to deal with something like that quickly and then manage the financial consequences of it. So one way to think about that outage is because the facility was down for about 21 days, that meant that we weren't getting the production cycles that we otherwise would have and the products that are coming off of that facility are pretty strong demand, and we're selling out of our backlog. So you do the math on what would the sales consequence to that being, you'll be in the range of about $35 million that would hit us in Q4.

順便說一句，我認為這也是一個很好的指標，表明我們在這項業務中擁有的財務和營運實力，能夠快速處理類似的事情，然後管理其財務後果。因此，考慮停電的一種方法是因為該設施停機了大約 21 天，這意味著我們無法獲得原本應有的生產週期，而且該設施生產的產品需求非常強勁，我們正在銷售積壓的訂單。因此，你計算一下這會對銷售產生什麼影響，第四季我們將獲得約 3,500 萬美元的收入。

However, as Bob said, our team is really covering that divot is the way we described it. And so when it comes to our Q4 guidance, we held our Q4 guidance. We're going to cover the consequences of that $35 million by reprioritizing other finishing activities that we've got going on and interest of cost actions. So I think it's -- that's one operational challenge I would mention, but I think it's important in that context.

然而，正如鮑勃所說，我們的團隊確實按照我們描述的方式覆蓋了這個草皮。因此，當談到我們的第四季度指導時，我們維持了第四季度的指導。我們將透過重新安排我們正在進行的其他整理活動和成本行動的興趣來彌補這 3500 萬美元的後果。所以我認為這是我要提到的營運挑戰，但我認為這在這種情況下很重要。

I think to add a little color to that to the 1 ATI strategy that Gautam's probably heard us talk about for many years is really taking bold in the melt side. And so when we have an issue, whether it's titanium or nickel, it has a modest effect on both segments because we leverage that capacity to feed both segments.

我認為，為 1 ATI 策略添加一點色彩，高塔姆可能已經聽我們談論了很多年，這確實在融化方面採取了大膽的做法。因此，當我們遇到問題時，無論是鈦還是鎳，它對這兩個細分市場的影響都較小，因為我們利用該產能來滿足這兩個細分市場的需求。

But I think in this particular case, that's probably where Gautam picked up little HPMC little bit, but we're going to work through it and certainly have worked through it. And it's part of realigning the production, the debottlenecking, all that kind of stuff that allows us to cover the divot in Q4.

但我認為在這個特殊情況下，高塔姆可能只是在其中獲得了一點 HPMC，但我們將解決這個問題，而且肯定已經解決了這個問題。這是重新調整生產、消除瓶頸的一部分，所有這些讓我們能夠在第四季度彌補缺陷。

Got you. And was actually a financial impact -- yes, that very much helped. So was there a financial impact in Q3 that you could...

明白你了。實際上是一種財務影響——是的，這非常有幫助。那麼，第三季是否有財務影響，您可以...

Yes, there was not. We had a particular a little small bucket of incremental costs that we adjusted for. But when you look at the adjusted EBITDA, the answer is no. There's no consequence there.

是的，沒有。我們調整了一小部分增量成本。但當你查看調整後的 EBITDA 時，答案是否定的。那裡沒有任何後果。

And just a quick follow-up. Just what are your preliminary views on the airframe business next year in terms of rate of growth relative to the jet engine business?

只是快速跟進。您對明年機身業務相對於噴射發動機業務的成長率有何初步看法？

Yes. Good question. Certainly, where lead times are today, we're booking into Q2, Q3 for some applications, and we even stretch out into Q1 2025 and some others. So from the order activity and the conversation we're having, we would see airframe growth. It's going to be double digit for sure. I would say, this year, we saw airframe growth year-over-year, year-to-date, up 60%. I don't think we'll see 60%, but we probably see something half of that or 1/3 of that. Based on the order load, we still have some share gains that have yet to be fully realized on the airframe side that will come into play in 2024. So I think we'll see growth a little bit ahead of the rest of the market on the airframe side, especially on the titanium side as we bring on this fourth furnace. So I would say still strong growth going into 2024.

是的。好問題。當然，就目前的交貨時間而言，我們將某些應用程式的預訂時間延長到第二季、第三季度，甚至延長到 2025 年第一季和其他一些應用程式。因此，從訂單活動和我們正在進行的對話來看，我們會看到機身的成長。肯定會是兩位數。我想說，今年，我們看到機身年增，年初至今成長了 60%。我認為我們不會看到 60%，但我們可能會看到其中的一半或 1/3。根據訂單負載，我們在機身方面仍有一些尚未完全實現的份額增長，這些增長將在 2024 年發揮作用。因此，我認為我們將看到比市場其他部分領先一點的增長。機身側，尤其是鈦側，因為我們引進了第四個熔爐。所以我想說，到 2024 年，成長仍然強勁。

Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan of The Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Josh Sullivan。

Did you say what product your end market was impacted by the Lockport outage, that $35 million, is that concentrated in one product or another?

您是否說過您的終端市場的哪種產品受到洛克波特停電的影響？這 3500 萬美元是集中在一種產品還是另一種產品上？

It is -- what I would say is it would be across multiple products. So we haven't articulated any specifics around the products impacted.

我想說的是，它將跨越多種產品。因此，我們尚未闡明受影響產品的任何具體細節。

Okay. Got it. And then just given the powder issue with the GTF, was an internal customer process. ATI has got a very extensive history of metallurgy. Has there been any increased effort on engaging ATI's expertise to mitigate technology risk from OEMs, either on this product or generally just looking at the outcome there?

好的。知道了。然後考慮到 GTF 的粉末問題，這是一個內部客戶流程。 ATI 在冶金領域有著悠久的歷史。是否加大力度利用 ATI 的專業知識來降低 OEM 的技術風險，無論是針對該產品還是一般只關注那裡的結果？

That's a pretty broad question, so I'll answer it with a broad answer, which is, yes, I mean we have daily, weekly, quarterly technology exchanges with all the major OEMs, especially on the engine side, I think there's always, in this industry, a critical commitment to quality, looking for impurities, those kinds of things, how do we continue to improve. So those dialogues do go on.

這是一個相當廣泛的問題，所以我會用一個廣泛的答案來回答它，那就是，是的，我的意思是我們與所有主要原始設備製造商每天、每週、每季度進行技術交流，特別是在引擎方面，我認為總是有，在這個行業，對品質的承諾至關重要，尋找雜質，諸如此類的事情，我們如何不斷改進。所以這些對話確實在繼續。

I think, obviously, qualifications are something the industry takes very seriously. And we're involved in almost all qualifications to give them the OEMs a second source on almost everything that they're looking for. So there are opportunities, and it's a constant, a positive continual conversation with them. I think there's upside for sure.

我認為，顯然，資格是業界非常重視的。我們參與了幾乎所有的資格認證，為原始設備製造商提供了幾乎所有他們正在尋找的東西的第二來源。所以機會是存在的，而且是與他們持續不斷的、積極的持續對話。我認為肯定有好處。

And then just one last one. The reshoring gains in the medical side that you mentioned in the deck, is that VSMPO related or something else?

然後只有最後一張。您在甲板上提到的醫療方面的回流收益是與 VSMPO 有關還是其他原因？

I would say pretty much the VSMPO related things. It's probably a good way to look at it.

我想說的幾乎都是與 VSMPO 相關的事情。這可能是一個很好的看待它的方式。

Thank you. At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I'll hand back to Dave Weston for any further remarks.

謝謝。目前，我們沒有進一步的問題。因此，我將把任何進一步的評論交還給戴夫·韋斯頓。

Thanks, Alex. And thanks again to everyone for joining us today. This concludes ATI's third quarter earnings call. A replay will be available on our website along with registration info for our upcoming investor update on the 29th of November. Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。再次感謝大家今天加入我們。 ATI 第三季財報電話會議到此結束。我們的網站上將提供重播以及 11 月 29 日投資者更新的註冊資訊。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。