ATI Inc (ATI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello everyone and welcome to the ATI fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Becky and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand over to your host, David Weston, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 ATI 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫貝基，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）現在我將把主持人、投資者關係副總裁戴維·韋斯頓 (David Weston) 交給他開始。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to ATI's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Participating in today's call to share key points from our fourth quarter results are Kim Fields, President and CEO; and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 ATI 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。參加今天的電話會議來分享我們第四季業績要點的有總裁兼執行長 Kim Fields；以及執行副總裁兼財務長唐紐曼（Don Newman）。

Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook and can also be found on our website at atimaterials.com. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. As a reminder, all following statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the accompanying presentation.

在開始我們的準備好的演講之前，我想提請大家注意本次電話會議附帶的補充介紹。這些幻燈片提供了有關我們的成果和展望的更多細節，也可以在我們的網站 atimaterials.com 上找到。在我們發表準備好的發言後，我們將開放提問專線。提醒一下，以下所有陳述都基於各種假設和警告。這些在收益報告和隨附的簡報中都有提及。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kim.

現在我將把電話轉給金。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Q4 was a great quarter for ATI. We ended the year on a high note that gives us momentum going into 2025. Let me share the financial headlines first.

謝謝，戴夫。大家早安。第四季度對於 ATI 來說是一個出色的季度。我們以高昂的姿態結束了這一年，並為我們邁向 2025 年註入了新的動力。讓我先分享一些財經新聞。

In the fourth quarter, revenue was up 12% sequentially to $1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $210 million, above our guided range of $181 million to $191 million. On a full year basis, revenue was nearly $4.4 billion; our highest since 2012, up 5% even with the challenges we and the industry encountered this year. Adjusted EBITDA was $729 million and EBITDA margins were almost 17%, with both segments contributing strong performance.

第四季度，營收季增12%，達到12億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.1 億美元，高於我們預期的 1.81 億美元至 1.91 億美元範圍。全年收入接近44億美元；這是我們自 2012 年以來最高的，儘管我們和業界今年都遇到了挑戰，但仍成長了 5%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.29 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率接近 17%，兩個部門均貢獻了強勁的業績。

Free cash flow for 2024 was $248 million, up more than 50% over last year. Our top-line growth and expanding margins led to double-digit percentage increases to adjusted EBITDA. These results demonstrate that our transformational strategy is on track. We're confident in our performance and 2025 is on pace to be even better. As a result, we're forecasting our 2025 adjusted EBITDA will build each successive quarter during the year, with our full year outlook above $800 million. Don will get into these details in a moment.

2024 年的自由現金流為 2.48 億美元，比去年增長 50% 以上。我們的營收成長和利潤率的提高帶動調整後 EBITDA 實現兩位數的百分比成長。這些結果顯示我們的轉型策略正在順利推進。我們對我們的表現充滿信心，2025 年的步伐將會更好。因此，我們預測 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在年內每季持續增加，全年預期將超過 8 億美元。唐稍後會詳細介紹這些細節。

Three key areas drive our confidence in ATI's future: Number one, 2025 demand remains robust. You're likely hearing in our customers' earnings call. Boeing is bouncing back, ramping with the 737 MAX on track. Airbus remains steady with opportunities for upside as they push their ramp rates. We're seeing stability as anxiety comes out of the supply in. Demand for ATI materials comes from every segment of the aerospace industry. Our products are on every commercial platform flying today.

三個關鍵領域推動了我們對 ATI 未來充滿信心：第一，2025 年的需求仍然強勁。您很可能聽過我們客戶的財報電話會議。波音公司正在強勢反彈，737 MAX 的交付進度順利。隨著空中巴士股價上漲，其股價仍保持穩定，且有上漲機會。隨著焦慮從供應中消除，我們看到了穩定。對 ATI 材料的需求來自航空航太工業的各個領域。我們的產品遍佈當今飛行的每一個商業平台。

In Q4, we shipped more than Q3. Our backlog remained steady. It didn't drop. Backlog isn't a pure indicator of the full demand picture. Remember, through long-term agreements, our customers reserve their capacity based on anticipated upcoming needs. These orders are continuing to flow and are growing. Our full year 2024 airframe revenue was up 4.5% year-over-year.

第四季我們的出貨量比第三季多。我們的積壓訂單保持穩定。它沒掉下來。積壓訂單並不是反映全部需求狀況的純粹指標。請記住，透過長期協議，我們的客戶根據預期的未來需求保留他們的產能。這些訂單不斷湧現，而且還在成長。我們的 2024 年全年機身收入年增 4.5%。

Jet engine revenue was up 9%. Our isothermal forgings are a key driver of this growth. In 2024, the team was able to increase ISO pushes by 32%. In the fourth quarter, they achieved their highest quarterly total output ever. In addition to OEM build rates, MRO and the GTF engine overhaul program are also driving heavy engine demand. We are continuing to ramp our support of this program with sales in 2024, almost triple 2023 sales and anticipate to increase another 50% in 2025.

噴射發動機收入成長了9%。我們的等溫鍛件是這一成長的主要驅動力。2024 年，該團隊能夠將 ISO 推播量提高 32%。第四季度，他們實現了有史以來最高的季度總產量。除了OEM生產率以外，MRO和GTF引擎大修計畫也推動了引擎的需求成長。我們將繼續增加對該計畫的支持，2024 年的銷售額幾乎是 2023 年銷售額的三倍，預計 2025 年將再增加 50%。

Our defense business continues to grow as well. Full year revenues were up 22% to $490 million. When the United States and our allies need reliable, high-performance advanced materials were honored they turn to ATI. The continued growth of our defense business demonstrates both demand for our product and confidence in our ability to deliver.

我們的國防業務也在持續成長。全年營收成長22%至4.9億美元。當美國及其盟友需要可靠、高性能的先進材料時，他們很榮幸地向 ATI 求助。我們國防業務的持續成長既顯示了對我們產品的需求，也顯示了對我們交付能力的信心。

Combined, Aerospace and Defense exceeded 65% of fourth quarter revenue. For the full year, they represent more than 62%, delivering strong performance in growing markets. In addition to our core A&D markets, you've heard us talk about Aero-Like. This is where the differentiated ATI materials come into play. In the electronics and specialty energy markets, continued demand for high-performance chips and the resurgence of nuclear energy put our hafnium, niobium, and zirconium alloys in high demand.

航空航太和國防業務合計佔第四季總收入的 65% 以上。就全年而言，這些公司的份額超過 62%，在不斷增長的市場中表現強勁。除了我們的核心 A&D 市場之外，您還聽過我們談論 Aero-Like。這就是差異化 ATI 材料發揮作用的地方。在電子和特殊能源市場，對高性能晶片的持續需求和核能的復甦使我們的鉿、鈮和鋯合金的需求量很大。

Generally, long-term demand for these products is predicted to exceed current supply. It's interesting to note that our combined electronics and specialty energy sales in the fourth quarter were nearly equal to our defense sales, which I just mentioned were up significantly. And remember, we call these markets Aero-Like because of the growth and margins they typically deliver.

總體而言，預計這些產品的長期需求將超過目前供應量。值得注意的是，我們第四季的電子和特種能源綜合銷售額幾乎等於我們的國防銷售額，而我剛才提到的國防銷售額大幅成長。請記住，我們將這些市場稱為類似航空的市場，因為它們通常能夠實現成長並帶來利潤。

That brings me to my second key driver of confidence. Operationally, ATI is where we need to be. We are on track, not just having recovered from the challenges of Q3 but being stronger from them. The continued investment we are making in equipment reliability and AI technology are allowing us to predict potential issues and proactively correct them before they occur.

這讓我想到了推動我信心的第二個關鍵因素。從營運角度來說，ATI 正是我們所需要的。我們正步入正軌，不僅從第三季的挑戰中恢復過來，而且變得更加強大。我們對設備可靠性和人工智慧技術的持續投資使我們能夠預測潛在問題並在問題發生之前主動糾正。

Our productivity improvement gives us the opportunity to participate in transactional business where we want to, where we're valued most. One of the most rewarding parts of leading our team is getting called when they hit a new record. I received a lot of those calls this quarter, announcing things like record levels of premium quality heat melted, milestones, and powder billet, best flow times all over system, and newly qualified operations that we gain share.

生產效率的提高使我們有機會參與我們想要的、最有價值的交易業務。領導我們的團隊最有意義的部分之一就是當他們創下新紀錄時得到召喚。本季我接到了很多這樣的電話，宣布了一些消息，例如優質熱熔、里程碑和粉末坯料的創紀錄水平，整個系統的最佳流動時間，以及我們獲得份額的新合格操作。

With our team operating as one ATI, each business's best can raise the next operation to its new best. I appreciate all they're doing, and I'm honored to celebrate their successes.

在我們的團隊作為一個 ATI 進行運作的情況下，每個企業的最佳營運都可以將下一個營運提升到新的最佳水平。我感謝他們所做的一切，並很榮幸為他們的成功而慶祝。

Let's get to my third and final key driver of confidence. I am optimistic for the future based on growth activity we're already seeing. Today's 2025 guidance is in line with Boeing's projections. And as an early in the value stream supplier, we'll be one of the first to see increased call as they strive to meet ramping build rates.

讓我們來談談第三個也是最後一個影響信心的關鍵驅動因素。根據我們已經看到的成長活動，我對未來感到樂觀。今天的 2025 年指引與波音公司的預測一致。作為價值流供應商中的早期企業，我們將成為首批看到呼叫量增加的企業之一，因為他們努力滿足不斷提升的建設率。

For 2026, we always publicly stated that the 787 bills will increase from 5 to 7, another sign of increasing stability. The 777X is entering back into service, something we've all been looking forward to. We are beginning to see signs of this increasing demand for titanium and currently anticipate seeing an uptick in the back half of 2025. In July, we announced $4 billion in new sales commitments much of which were tied to our differentiated nickel products. Both commitments added new scope and long-term agreements that both build and extend a core.

對於 2026 年，我們一直公開表示 787 法案將從 5 份增加到 7 份，這是穩定性增加的另一個跡象。777X 即將重新投入使用，這是我們一直期待的事情。我們開始看到鈦需求不斷增長的跡象，目前預計 2025 年下半年將出現上升趨勢。7月份，我們宣布了40億美元的新銷售承諾，其中大部分與我們差異化的鎳產品有關。這兩項承諾都增加了新的範圍和長期協議，以建立和擴展核心。

We believe that growing demand has tremendous upside. You've likely heard of the emerging DoD budget inputs evolving around the philosophy of peace through strength. With additional funding targeted to potentially increase defense spending by as much as $200 billion, or $100 billion per year for fiscal year '25 and '26. If they move forward, it is expected that a portion of this increase would benefit production programs where ATI provides materials; naval, air and ground vehicles supporting our expectations for growth defense.

我們相信，需求成長具有巨大的上升空間。您可能聽說過國防部的預算投入是圍繞著「以實力求和平」的理念而發展起來的。額外資金的目標是可能將國防開支增加 2,000 億美元，即 25 和 26 財年每年增加 1,000 億美元。如果他們繼續前進，預計部分成長將使 ATI 提供材料的生產項目受益；海軍、空中和地面車輛支持我們對國防成長的期望。

Lastly, our team gives me great confidence. With each goal met, they strive to set the bar higher often surprising themselves with what they can achieve. When faced with an opportunity or a challenge, our mindset is what would have to be true for us to succeed. From that starting point, the ideas are flowing, making each day better than the last.

最後，我們的團隊給了我很大的信心。每達到一個目標，他們就會努力設定更高的標準，而他們所取得的成就常常令他們自己感到驚訝。當面臨機會或挑戰時，我們必須有正確的心態才能取得成功。從那個起點開始，創意不斷湧現，讓每一天都比前一天更好。

Now, Don will share details about our 2024 results and the outlook for 2025.

現在，Don 將分享有關我們 2024 年業績和 2025 年展望的詳細資訊。

Thanks, Kim. Let me provide some additional insights into the quarter, which was well ahead of our expectations from a revenue and profit standpoint. Cash flow was in line with what we had anticipated. I will also touch on some full year highlights before talking through our 2025 outlook.

謝謝，金。讓我對本季提供一些額外的見解，從收入和利潤的角度來看，該季度的表現遠遠超出了我們的預期。現金流與我們的預期一致。在談論 2025 年展望之前，我還將談談一些全年亮點。

Let's start by highlighting key results for the quarter and comparing it against our guidance. Revenue approached $1.2 billion in Q4, up $122 million or 12% sequentially. That's up 10% year-over-year. Q4 revenue was higher than we expected as customer demand improved in Q3. Mix was a bit weaker than we anticipated due to short-term shifts in customer requirements.

讓我們首先重點介紹本季度的主要結果並將其與我們的指導進行比較。第四季營收接近 12 億美元，比上一季增加 1.22 億美元，增幅 12%。這比去年同期增長了 10%。由於第三季客戶需求有所改善，第四季的營收高於我們的預期。由於客戶需求的短期變化，Mix 比我們預期的要弱一些。

Our adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was approximately $210 million, above our guided range of $181 million to $191 million. It's important to clarify that our adjusted results include approximately $18 million of non-operational favorability from sale of oil and gas rates and clarification of tax credit rules by the IRS in Q4. Some of those tax benefits relate to activities that predate the quarter. If we were to exclude those items, as they were not embedded in our guidance, the underlying adjusted EBITDA would have been in the range of $192 million. That's still above the high end of our guided range.

我們第四季的調整後 EBITDA 約為 2.1 億美元，高於我們預期的 1.81 億美元至 1.91 億美元範圍。需要澄清的是，我們的調整後結果包括第四季度石油和天然氣銷售價格以及美國國稅局澄清的稅收抵免規則帶來的約 1800 萬美元的非營運性優惠。其中一些稅收優惠與該季度之前的活動有關。如果我們排除這些項目，因為它們不包含在我們的指導中，那麼基礎的調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.92 億美元的範圍內。這仍然高於我們指導範圍的高端。

We achieved this positive performance despite several offsetting unfavorable impacts noted in our earnings release. Through a meaningful growth in sales and an increasing mix of A&D content, our results reflect improved performance and the ongoing execution of our long-term strategy. Full-year 2024 revenue was nearly $4.4 billion, our highest revenue since 2012.

儘管我們在收益報告中指出了一些不利的影響，但我們仍然取得了積極的業績。透過銷售額的大幅成長和 A&D 內容組合的不斷增加，我們的業績反映了業績的提升和長期策略的持續執行。2024 年全年收入接近 44 億美元，這是我們自 2012 年以來的最高收入。

For the full year, revenue grew roughly 5% over 2023. Excluding metal impacts, full year 2024 revenue grew nearly 9% over 2023 levels. We delivered almost 17% adjusted EBITDA margins across the business for the year. At 17.9% this quarter, margins are approaching the targets we've set for the coming year. In HPMC, fourth quarter margins declined 230 basis points sequentially to 20%. This was driven by more than $6 million in charges to address ongoing customer commercial negotiations as well as adjustments to incentive compensation tied to ATI's improved performance.

就全年而言，營收較 2023 年成長約 5%。不包括金屬影響，2024 年全年營收比 2023 年水準成長近 9%。我們全年實現了近 17% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。本季的利潤率為 17.9%，接近我們為來年設定的目標。在HPMC，第四季利潤率環比下降230個基點至20％。這是由於用於解決正在進行的客戶商業談判的超過 600 萬美元的費用以及與 ATI 改善的業績掛鉤的激勵薪酬調整。

In AA&S, our fourth quarter margins increased 150 basis points sequentially. Those margins exceeded 16% as the mix and strength of A&D and aero-like volumes continue to increase. This increase includes $10 million of favorable benefits from clarification from the IRS on the advanced manufacturing production credit. Excluding this benefit, margins for AA&S would have been in line with our expectations and Q3 performance.

在 AA&S，我們第四季的利潤率較上季增加了 150 個基點。由於航空航太和國防業務以及航空類業務的規模和實力不斷增強，利潤率超過了 16%。這一增長包括美國國稅局對先進製造業生產抵免政策澄清而帶來的 1000 萬美元的優惠利益。除去這項收益，AA&S 的利潤率將與我們的預期和第三季的業績相符。

As we anticipated, our fourth quarter was a very strong quarter for cash, delivering approximately $400 million in free cash flow. While full year free cash flow is within the range of our guidance, underlying performance is lower than we originally expected in 2024. It's been supplemented by proceeds from several divestitures that were not originally contained in our plan or guidance.

正如我們預期的那樣，第四季度我們的現金流非常強勁，產生了約 4 億美元的自由現金流。雖然全年自由現金流在我們的指導範圍內，但基本業績低於我們最初對 2024 年的預期。它還得到了我們計劃或指導中最初未包含的幾項資產剝離收益的補充。

Knowing that, we are encouraged by the reductions we made this quarter and manage working capital reducing sequentially from 40% to 31%. We look to build on our improvements in free cash flow this year to deliver a more consistent and predictable cash-generating business in 2025 and beyond.

了解到這一點，我們對本季的削減感到鼓舞，並將營運資本管理從 40％ 連續減少到 31％。我們希望在今年自由現金流改善的基礎上，在 2025 年及以後實現更穩定、可預測的現金創造業務。

In the area of capital investment, our total spend for the year was $239 million, including $17 million of capital that was funded by customers through a direct investment in capacity. That funding was included in cash from operations as required. Our net debt ratio improved sequentially from 2.2 to 1.6 times this quarter with further reductions likely to come with profitable growth. We continued returning cash to shareholders this quarter with $70 million of share repurchases. We deployed $260 million in 2024 to repurchase shares, representing 105% of 2024 free cash flow.

在資本投資方面，我們全年的總支出為 2.39 億美元，其中包括客戶透過直接投資產能而提供的 1,700 萬美元資本。該筆資金已依要求計入經營活動現金流。本季度，我們的淨負債比率環比改善，從 2.2 倍降至 1.6 倍，隨著獲利成長，淨負債比率可能進一步降低。本季我們繼續向股東返還現金，回購了 7,000 萬美元的股票。我們在 2024 年部署了 2.6 億美元回購股票，佔 2024 年自由現金流的 105%。

We start 2025 with our existing authorization at $590 million. This quarter represents a strong conclusion of 2024 and helped shape our expectations for 2025.

2025 年開始，我們的現有授權金額為 5.9 億美元。本季代表著 2024 年的一個強勁結束，並幫助我們形成了對 2025 年的預期。

With that, let's turn to our 2025 guidance. As we have said consistently over the past several months, we expect the first half of the year to reflect modest recovery as the commercial aero supply chain rebounds and subsequently grows. Taking that into account, along with seasonality, we know exists in our business, we are setting our adjusted EBITDA guidance range for Q1 at $170 million to $180 million. That equates to an adjusted earnings per share range of $0.55 to $0.61.

因此，讓我們轉向 2025 年指引。正如我們過去幾個月一直說的那樣，隨著商用航空供應鏈的反彈和隨後的成長，我們預計今年上半年將出現溫和復甦。考慮到這一點以及我們知道業務中存在的季節性，我們將第一季的調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍設定為 1.7 億美元至 1.8 億美元。這相當於調整後的每股收益在 0.55 美元至 0.61 美元之間。

For the full year, we have narrowed our range within the previous target for 2025. That aligns with how we have seen this market recovery and the delays in the aero ramp unfolding over the last half of 2024. We are setting the full-year 2025 range for adjusted EBITDA at $800 million to $840 million, with a corresponding range of EPS at $2.80 to $3 per share.

就全年而言，我們已將範圍縮小至 2025 年的既定目標範圍內。這與我們看到的市場復甦以及 2024 年下半年航空成長放緩的情況一致。我們將 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 範圍設定為 8 億至 8.4 億美元，相應的 EPS 範圍設定為每股 2.80 美元至 3 美元。

As you would expect, we will work all year to pursue opportunities to eliminate risks and build on this guidance. Even though we don't provide direct guidance for revenue and margins on an ongoing basis, our previous targets remain unchanged for 2025.

正如您所期望的，我們將全年努力尋找機會消除風險並在此指導基礎上進一步發展。儘管我們不會持續提供收入和利潤的直接指導，但我們先前設定的 2025 年目標保持不變。

Turning to free cash flow, we are setting the full year range at $240 million to $360 million. This range contemplates how much more we believe we can improve managed working capital timing and efficiency within this time of growth. We are assuming between $260 million and $280 million in capital investment this year, a portion of which may be funded by customers.

談到自由現金流，我們將全年範圍設定為 2.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元。這個範圍考慮了我們認為在這一增長期內我們能夠在多大程度上改善管理營運資本的時間和效率。我們預計今年的資本投資在 2.6 億至 2.8 億美元之間，其中一部分可能由客戶提供資金。

We are investing a portion of the proceeds from our 2024 divestitures to support profitable growth, reliability, and debottlenecking. $150 million in debt comes due in Q4, which we plan to repay with balance sheet cash. We believe we can continue to reduce share count throughout the year with a disciplined and balanced approach to share repurchases.

我們將投資 2024 年資產剝離所得的部分收益來支持獲利成長、可靠性和消除瓶頸。 1.5 億美元的債務將於第四季到期，我們計劃用資產負債表現金償還。我們相信，透過嚴謹、均衡的股票回購方式，我們可以全年持續減少股票數量。

Note the guidance I'm sharing today is based on the assumptions that actions of the new US administration will not materially change the current business environment and that we are not impacted by any work stoppages.

請注意，我今天分享的指導是基於這樣的假設：美國新政府的行動不會實質地改變當前的商業環境，我們不會受到任何停工的影響。

To summarize, the path we outlined last quarter, underpinned by the strategy and financial targets we have pursued for several years continues to guide our course for the year. Despite the dynamics the A&D industry encountered in 2024, we see significant opportunity ahead. We are working every day to fulfill that commitment to our customers and shareholders.

總而言之，我們在上個季度概述的發展路徑，以我們多年來一直推行的策略和財務目標為基礎，將繼續指導我們今年的發展方向。儘管 A&D 產業在 2024 年遇到了動態，但我們仍看到未來存在巨大的機會。我們每天都在努力履行對客戶和股東的承諾。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Kim.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給金。

Thanks, Don. As I shared, we are optimistic about the future. We're bullish on demand and our markets. Operationally, we're stable and improving. We're seeing our long-term strategy deliver. Yes, there are risks ahead, both known and unknown. Let me take a minute to address the dynamic macroeconomics we're all experiencing, including tariffs and trade actions.

謝謝，唐。正如我所說，我們對未來充滿樂觀。我們對需求和市場充滿信心。在營運方面，我們保持穩定並且不斷進步。我們看到我們的長期策略正在實現成果。是的，前方存在著已知和未知的風險。請容許我花一點時間來談談我們都在經歷的動態宏觀經濟，包括關稅和貿易行動。

The steps we've taken to mitigate risk give me confidence that we're well positioned for any environment. We're predominantly a US-based manufacturer. And in recent years, we've taken deliberate action to diversify our supply sources. We have purposely expanded pass-through mechanisms in our contracts. We are nimble and experienced in responding to uncertainty. As we overcome each challenge, we know our success will make our business better and strengthens our ability to perform now and in the future.

我們為降低風險所採取的措施讓我相信，我們能夠很好地應對任何環境。我們主要是一家美國製造商。近年來，我們採取了刻意行動，以實現供應來源多元化。我們有意擴大了合約中的傳遞機制。我們在應對不確定性方面既靈活又經驗豐富。當我們克服每個挑戰時，我們知道我們的成功將使我們的業務更好，並增強我們現在和未來的運作能力。

And with that, let's open the line for your questions.

現在，讓我們開始回答你們的提問。

(Operator Instructions) David Strauss, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯（David Strauss）。

So you gave the guidance for Q1 EBITDA. Can you just talk about the progression through the rest of the year. It looks like you're going to need a pretty steep recovery in the second half to get to your guidance range?

所以您給了第一季 EBITDA 的指引。您能談談今年剩餘時間的進展嗎？看起來你需要在下半年有一個相當強勁的復甦才能達到你的指導範圍？

Sure. I'd be happy to put you through that. And you're right. When you look at our Q1, Q1 reflects some seasonal moments from the Q4 performance down to Q1. It also reflects removal of some of the nonrepeating items around asset sales and whatnot. But as you look at the pattern for the 2025, looking at it by quarter, what I would say is, one place you could start, I think that the consensus figures that are out there, the market expectations show a reasonably good pattern of how to think about the progression through the quarters.

當然。我很樂意幫你完成這件事。你說得對。當您查看我們的第一季時，第一季反映了從第四季度表現到第一季的一些季節性時刻。它也反映了有關資產出售等一些非重複項目的取消。但當你看 2025 年的模式時，按季度來看，我想說的是，你可以從以下一個地方開始，我認為目前的共識數據、市場預期顯示出一個相當好的模式，即思考各個季度的進展情形。

So midpoint on our guide for Q1 in the mid-$170 millions, what I would expect is that with that seasonality behind us, you get to Q2, you would be experiencing something closer to the low $200 millions. And then in the second half of the year, we would expect to see the recovery in a number of areas, which will create some lift in the second half versus the first half. I would expect that you'll see EBITDA in the $210 million to $220 million-plus range for Q3 and Q4. That give me an idea to pace and pattern to think about.

因此，根據我們對第一季的預期，中點數字將在 1.7 億美元左右，我預計，隨著季節性因素的出現，到第二季度，我們的收入將接近 2 億美元出頭。我們預計下半年多個領域將出現復甦，這將為下半年帶來比上半年更多的提振。我預計第三季和第四季的 EBITDA 將達到 2.1 億美元至 2.2 億美元以上。這給了我思考的步調和模式的想法。

Great. That's helpful. And Kim, you touched on it briefly, but the potential tariffs with Canada specifically for you guys? I know you purchased a lot of your nickel from Canada. So maybe if you could just touch on that and then the mechanism that you have in place in your contracts to potentially recover if we do see a tariff on nickel in Canada? Thanks.

偉大的。這很有幫助。金，您簡要地談到了這一點，但是對你們來說，與加拿大具體的潛在關稅是什麼？我知道你從加拿大購買了很多鎳。所以，您能否簡單談談這一點，以及如果加拿大真的對鎳徵收關稅的話，您在合約中採用的恢復機制是什麼？謝謝。

Sure, David. As I mentioned, as you commented, we are well positioned as we think about tariffs. We have diversified, as you said, a portion of our nickel comes from Canada, but it's much less than 50%. In fact, it's probably closer to 25% and a lot of that is going for additional processing into Norway and other countries in Europe. So -- but we've got multiple sources. It's three or four or five which does allow us a little bit of flexibility as we think about the changing and evolving situation.

當然，大衛。正如我所提到的和您所評論的，我們在考慮關稅時處於有利地位。正如您所說，我們已經實現了多樣化，我們的部分鎳來自加拿大，但遠低於 50%。事實上，這個數字可能更接近 25%，其中許多被運往挪威和歐洲其他國家進行進一步加工。所以——但是我們有多個消息來源。這個數字是三、四或五，這確實讓我們在考慮不斷變化和發展的情況時具有一點靈活性。

The pass-through mechanisms, I'd say, were in place, nickel, obviously, based on an LME price, we had surcharges and premiums that were already in place before the pandemic.

我想說，轉嫁機制已經到位，鎳價顯然是基於倫敦金屬交易所的價格，我們在疫情爆發前就已經設有附加費和保費。

But as we came out and we saw rapid inflation, we took that opportunity to really enforce those mechanisms to make sure that we get close alignment and our intention is to pass through any increase in cost that we're seeing in our raw materials. So we feel like we're in a good place for that today, and we'll continue to monitor and be flexible based on the changing dynamics.

但隨著我們看到通貨膨脹的迅速上升，我們抓住機會真正執行這些機制，以確保我們緊密協調，我們的目的是將原材料成本的任何增加轉嫁出去。因此，我們覺得今天我們處於一個很好的位置，並且我們將繼續監控並根據不斷變化的動態保持靈活。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

Wondering if you could maybe take apart a little bit more the expectations for growth, especially on the engine side in HPMC this year in terms of, a, the programs that will be driving it. And then b, where the products that will be driving it more or whether it's more on the specialty alloys side, the forging side and titanium and kind of how the execution is going in those areas? And I guess what I'm getting at is also how we can think about the margin progression in HPMC and when we can get back on a track of kind of ascending margins in that business.

想知道您是否可以進一步分析一下對成長的預期，特別是今年 HPMC 引擎方面的成長預期，以及推動其發展的計劃。然後，b，哪些產品將對其產生更大的推動作用，或者更多的是特種合金方面、鍛造方面和鈦方面，以及這些領域的執行情況如何？我想說的是，我們如何看待 HPMC 的利潤率成長，以及何時我們才能重返該業務利潤率上升的軌道。

Sure. So let me -- I'll take a start at it and then I'll let Don add some color here at the end. You mentioned titanium and you mentioned engine. So I'm going to start broadly here in we can narrow it down to make sure that I get your question completely answered. So as we think about engine growth, I believe, is where you started, we saw about 9% growth in 2024 over 2023. And I'd say we are anticipating similar growth as we go into 2025.

當然。所以讓我——我會開始做這件事，然後我會讓唐在最後添加一些顏色。您提到了鈦，也提到了引擎。因此我將從廣泛的角度開始，然後我們可以縮小範圍，以確保我能完全回答你的問題。因此，當我們考慮引擎成長時，我相信這就是您的起點，我們看到 2024 年的成長比 2023 年成長了約 9%。我想說，我們預計到 2025 年還會有類似的成長。

We're seeing that in both materials as well as forgings. I'd say MRO is driving quite a bit of activity, and we're seeing a lot of that, especially in our forged products business, where the hot section of the engine, we're making those disks. They've got the highest backlog that we've had, I think, ever, over a year of lead time for parts.

我們在材料和鍛造件中都看到了這種情況。我想說 MRO 正在推動相當多的活動，我們看到了很多這樣的活動，特別是在我們的鍛造產品業務中，我們正在製造發動機的熱部分那些圓盤。我認為，他們的積壓訂單是我們歷史上最多的，零件交貨週期超過一年。

And a lot of that growth is coming, as I said, from MRO, the shop visits, the lifting upgrades that are being made across all of the different OEMs as well as the work that perhaps doing that we're partnering with them to continue to ramp up our production to support their accelerated shop visit program.

正如我所說，大部分增長都來自於 MRO、維修、不同 OEM 的提升升級，以及我們可能與他們合作繼續開展的工作提高產量來支持他們的加速店內訪問計劃。

I think I mentioned in the prepared remarks, our revenue was up 3x in 2024, just for the DTF program. And we hit full run rate in Q4 of that ramp increase on parts for them. And we're expecting to see full year 2025, a 50% increase.

我想我在準備好的發言中提到過，僅憑 DTF 計劃，我們的收入在 2024 年就成長了 3 倍。我們在第四季度實現了零件產能的全面提升。我們預計 2025 年全年將成長 50%。

Again, all of this is being supported broadly by the ISO capacity increase. If you remember, we did an upgrade to our fourth ISO press that was online. We had 32% of ISO output in 2024. And as I said, we're hitting full run rate that perhaps and overall. And so we're going to see continued growth for the full of 2025.

再次，所有這些都得到了 ISO 容量提升的廣泛支援。如果你還記得的話，我們對線上的第四台 ISO 印刷機進行了升級。到 2024 年，我們的 ISO 產量將佔 32%。正如我所說的，我們可能已經達到了整體的滿載運行率。因此，我們將看到 2025 年全年持續成長。

And we've been focusing on downstream bottlenecks around ultrasonic testing, which is an industry constraint across the board. But with our minimal capital investment as well as investing in qualified technicians and training, we've increased that over 50%. And so really reducing cycle time, increasing throughput in the shop there.

我們一直專注於超音波檢測的下游瓶頸，這是整個產業的限制因素。但是，我們以最少的資本投入以及對合格技術人員和培訓的投資，將這一數字提高了 50% 以上。從而真正減少週期時間，提高車間產量。

So overall, engine demand is strong. We continue to see it across the board, especially from MRO. I think I'd say I'm hearing 40%, 50%, 60% of their order demands are being driven by MRO today.

因此整體而言，引擎需求強勁。我們繼續在各個領域看到它，特別是在 MRO 領域。我認為我聽說他們今天 40%、50%、60% 的訂單需求都是由 MRO 驅動的。

You mentioned titanium. Just briefly, there is titanium that's included with that. We do have our new [ED2] melter that's coming online in Washington. We are commissioning today. We're waiting on final permit approvals. Because we do have customer commitments for that asset. And so we're anxious to get going and start qualifying that asset.

您提到了鈦。簡單來說，其中包含鈦。我們確實有新的[ED2]熔爐即將在華盛頓投入使用。我們今天開始調試。我們正在等待最終許可批准。因為我們確實對該資產有客戶承諾。因此，我們急於開始行動並開始確認該資產。

Titanium, I think a little bit as looking at the airframe market and as that starts to ramp, I think Airbus is very stable, and we're anticipating that going into 2025. You heard from Boeing, their growth. They're on track with the 737, and we anticipate that will continue to ramp as we get into the back half of the year. I think the one area I'm keeping an eye on is wide-bodies, both airframers have talked about ramping in 2026 and increasing the build rates and we're starting to see some of that activity, and we'd look to see that order activity come in, in the back half of the year.

鈦，我認為從機身市場來看，隨著其開始成長，我認為空中巴士非常穩定，我們預計這將持續到 2025 年。您已經從波音公司了解了他們的成長情況。他們的 737 業務正在按計劃進行，我們預計，進入今年下半年，這項業務將繼續成長。我認為我關注的一個領域是寬體飛機，兩家飛機製造商都談到了在 2026 年增加產量和提高建造速度，我們開始看到一些這樣的活動，我們希望看到訂單活動在下半年開始。

So pretty strong demand on engines. Airframe I'd say, is a little more muted, flat to slightly up in the first half of the year for sure. And then as they gain momentum going into the back half and as the wide-bodies start to hopefully ramp and they hit the build rates that they've advertised, we'll see that additional order rate come in.

因此對引擎的需求相當強烈。我想說，機身會更加柔和，肯定會在上半年持平或略有上漲。然後，隨著他們在後半段獲得動力，隨著寬體飛機開始有望增加，並達到他們所宣傳的製造率，我們將看到額外的訂單率。

Don, I don't know if you want to share anything about margins?

唐，我不知道您是否想分享任何有關利潤的資訊？

I would be happy to do that. So as Kim said, really strong broad-based demand around jet engine, which is helping to drive our growth, and you can see the impact of that on our margin profile as you look at 2025, Seth.

我很樂意這麼做。正如 Kim 所說，噴射引擎的廣泛需求非常強勁，這有助於推動我們的成長，Seth，當你展望 2025 年時，你可以看到這對我們利潤率的影響。

So the way to think about our margin profile for HPMC for 2025 -- I would expect that -- and I think I mentioned this Q1 that we would see the margins in the 20% to 21% range. And then you're going to see those ramp up to north of 23% as the year progresses. And then we continue to see that expansion. Well, what's driving that increase in margin. It's all the dynamics we've talked about in the past.

因此，我預計，2025 年 HPMC 的利潤率將在 20% 至 21% 之間。然後，隨著時間的推移，你會看到這些數字將上升至 23% 以上。然後我們繼續看到這種擴張。那麼，是什麼推動了利潤率的上升呢？這就是我們過去談論過的所有動態。

Number one, we're seeing this broad-based demand. We have a position with all of the major jet engine OEMs. So we get tailwinds around the MRO. We get tailwinds around the builds as a wide-body build rates ramp, that's something that we're going to meaningfully participate in. That means that our volumes are increasing, but also increasing is our absorption and then we get the favorable mix impact. So we've talked in the past about expectations that the HPMC margin should be north of 25%. We clearly believe that's true. I don't expect that we're going to get there in '25, but as we get into 2026 and head toward 2027, that is absolutely one of the objectives. And we believe we've got the underlying reasons that will drive us to that level.

首先，我們看到了這種廣泛的需求。我們與所有主要的噴射引擎原始設備製造商都有合作關係。因此我們在 MRO 方面獲得了順風。隨著寬體飛機建造率的提高，我們的建造工作順風順水，這是我們將積極參與的事情。這意味著我們的數量正在增加，但我們的吸收量也在增加，然後我們得到了有利的混合效應。因此，我們過去曾談到對 HPMC 利潤率應在 25% 以上的預期。我們堅信這是真的。我並不指望我們能在2025年實現這一目標，但隨著我們進入2026年並邁向2027年，這絕對是我們的目標之一。我們相信我們已經找到了推動我們達到這一水平的根本原因。

Okay. Great. Thanks. That was a long one question on my part. So I'll leave it there for this morning.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。對我來說這是一個很長的問題。所以今天早上我就把它留在那裡了。

Sure. Thanks.

當然。謝謝。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning guys. Was wondering if you could provide some context around the customer concessions given we think of as pricing environment to be pretty strong for suppliers like ATI. Does that -- what specifically led to those? And does that speak to any incremental pricing pressure broadly? And then I have a follow-up.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。鑑於我們認為定價環境對於 ATI 等供應商來說非常強勁，我想知道您是否可以提供一些有關客戶優惠的背景資訊。那——具體是什麼導致了這些情況？這是否意味著整體價格壓力增加？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yeah. Let me answer that question. First, I wouldn't describe them as concessions. As you can imagine, Gautam, we have a robust portfolio LTAs. And on a daily basis, we're having conversations with our customers on all sorts of terms, it's not just price, it's term, it's mix, it's many different dynamics.

是的。讓我來回答這個問題。首先，我不會將它們描述為讓步。正如您所想像的，Gautam，我們擁有強大的 LTA 投資組合。每天，我們都會與客戶討論各種問題，不僅是價格，還有條款、組合等許多不同的動態。

And it happened that this quarter, we had a charge that we took related to some of those discussions. Now also keep in mind, when we're dealing with our customers and addressing contract -- changes in contracts, sometimes those contracts can impact the current period, but it does not mean that you're detrimented or giving a value in the future.

而本季度，我們恰好承擔了與其中一些討論相關的費用。現在也要記住，當我們與客戶打交道並處理合約變更時，有時這些合約會影響當前期間，但這並不意味著您會受到損害或在未來產生價值。

As a matter of fact, it's quite the contrary for us. When we talk about changing contracts and making amendments to key terms, it is always with the intent of improving our position for the long run. And so the way to think about this, we won't share specifics around those conversations. But I would say, don't view this as a negative indicator for our position, our demand -- strength of demand on our business or the strong negotiating position that we have with our customers.

事實上，我們的情況恰恰相反。當我們談論改變合約並修改關鍵條款時，我們總是為了長期改善我們的狀況。因此，我們不會分享有關這些對話的具體資訊。但我想說，不要將此視為對我們的地位、需求（我們業務的需求強度或我們與客戶的強大談判地位）的負面指標。

Don't look at it in that way, it would be an incorrect way to interpret it. And what I would also say is you should not expect to see a charge like this on anywhere of a recurring basis. This would be something we wouldn't expect to see again just because of the unique circumstances that resulted in this charge.

不要以那樣的方式看待它，這是一種不正確的解釋方式。我想說的是，你不應該期望在任何地方看到這樣的定期收費。由於導致這次指控的特殊情況，我們不希望再次看到這種情況。

That's helpful context. Absolutely, yeah. And just a quick follow-up. I know the guidance assumes no work stoppage. I was just curious if you could give us an update on how far along you are on the union contract negotiation.

這是很有幫助的背景資訊。當然，是的。接下來是快速的跟進。我知道該指導假設不會停止工作。我只是好奇您是否可以告訴我們工會合約談判的進展。

Sure. Yeah, sure. Discussions are ongoing. They began in January. They're very constructive and positive so far. So we remain confident that we're going to reach an agreement that rewards our employees as well as maintaining our competitiveness. I think they are progressing well. And we're having good dialogue on a weekly basis. They're including a large group of employees so that we're making sure that we're considering all the needs.

當然。是的，當然。討論仍在進行中。它們從一月開始。到目前為止，他們的態度非常有建設性，而且非常積極。因此，我們堅信我們將達成一項既能獎勵員工又能保持競爭力的協議。我認為他們進展順利。我們每週都進行良好的對話。他們包括了一大批員工，以便我們確保考慮到所有的需求。

And so again, I'm not anticipating any work stoppage. We've not planned for one in our guidance. And I'm looking forward to getting to an agreement with our employees for a fair contract for them as well as maintaining that competitiveness I mentioned.

因此我再說一遍，我並不認為會出現任何停工的情況。我們在指導中沒有為此做計劃。我期待與我們的員工達成協議，為他們提供公平的合同，並保持我提到的競爭力。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Richard Safran, Seaport Research Partners.

理查德·薩夫蘭（Richard Safran），海港研究夥伴。

Kim, if I heard you right, I think you mentioned something about share gains. We're always interested in new customers, new long-term agreements. So I want to now discuss two related things. First, new long-term agreements with new customers? And then how you think that's going to impact capacity utilization?

Kim，如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你提到了一些關於股票收益的事情。我們始終對新客戶、新的長期協議感興趣。所以我現在想討論兩件相關的事情。首先，與新客戶達成新的長期協議？那麼您認為這將如何影響產能利用率？

Sure. So in the summer, we announced $4 billion in new customer commitments. As I look at that, that was predominantly on the nickel side. Think about half of that in the rest of this decade will come through in orders and commitments. From a standpoint, we are continuing to negotiate. There are several large contracts that are out there right now. We're making good progress. We've locked up a couple that I can't share a lot of those details yet because we haven't talked about them publicly.

當然。因此在夏天，我們宣布了 40 億美元的新客戶承諾。據我觀察，這主要與鎳有關。想想看，在未來十年內，其中的一半將以訂單和承諾的形式實現。從立場來看，我們正在繼續談判。目前有幾份大型合約正在等待批准。我們正在取得良好進展。我們已經鎖定了一些嫌疑人，但我還不能分享太多細節，因為我們還沒有公開談論過他們。

But from a capacity standpoint, we're in a good position to support these commitments that are coming. A lot of our conversations with our customers are really around today are really around what is that demand going to be as we get to the back half of this decade and into 2030s. So we are starting those discussions around capacity growth expectations and builds.

但從能力的角度來看，我們完全有能力支持即將到來的這些承諾。今天，我們與客戶的許多對話實際上都是圍繞著這個十年後半期以及 2030 年代的需求會是什麼樣子。因此，我們開始圍繞產能成長預期和建設進行討論。

So for the rest of this decade, as I said, we're making good progress. I mentioned in the past, we're on every program across the industry with each customer. I'd say our relationships with RTX has really grown not just with Pratt, but the overall company. So we're continuing, I think, again to gain share, to gain relationships, working on next-generation products and our capacity is well aligned to support that.

因此，正如我所說，在接下來的十年裡，我們正在取得良好的進展。我過去提到過，我們與每個客戶一起開展整個行業的每個專案。我想說，我們與 RTX 的關係不僅與普惠有關，而且與整個公司的關係都得到了發展。因此，我認為，我們將繼續擴大市場份額，建立關係，致力於開發下一代產品，我們的能力也能很好地支持這一點。

Okay, thanks. On defense, as a follow-up, a bit of a standout in the fourth quarter, up 38% sequentially, and you had an 11% decline in 3Q. And I thought that was related to titanium armor plate, but you didn't even mention that. So I thought maybe you could discuss this a bit more. I'm wondering if we're now looking at more of a sustainable higher run rate for defense sales here.

好的，謝謝。在防禦方面，作為後續行動，第四季度表現突出，環比增長 38％，而第三季度下降了 11％。我認為這與鈦裝甲板有關，但你甚至沒有提到這一點。所以我想也許你可以進一步討論這個問題。我想知道我們現在是否正在尋求更永續的國防銷售更高運行率。

Yeah, I appreciate you asking about that. I do agree. We did have a very good quarter for defense. And I anticipate, again, depending where the administration goes, some of that increase in the fourth quarter came from some of the volatility you're seeing in a geopolitical space where some of our partners are looking to bring in material and ramp some of their growth rates.

是的，感謝您詢問這個問題。我同意。我們本季的防守確實非常好。我再次預計，第四季度的成長部分來自於地緣政治領域的一些波動，這取決於政府的立場，我們的一些合作夥伴希望引進材料並增加他們的一些產量。

As you mentioned, we do have participation on the ground vehicles as well as nuclear enabled applications. And so both of those are -- have been very active. I'd say the $200 billion that Congress is talking about possibly increasing defense spending in the next two fiscal years.

正如您所說，我們確實參與了地面車輛以及核能應用。所以這兩者都非常活躍。我認為國會正在討論的 2000 億美元可能會在未來兩個財政年度增加國防開支。

When you look at the white paper on that, it's earmarked and targeted to go to programs, over 50%, maybe 50% of that earmarked to go into programs that we participate in materials are in. So I do think, especially given the volatility we're seeing on trade and geopolitical that there is this whole focus around peace through strength.

當你查看白皮書時，你會發現這些資金是專門用於項目，其中 50% 以上，也許有 50% 的資金是專門用於我們參與的項目的材料。因此我確實認為，特別是考慮到我們在貿易和地緣政治方面看到的動盪，人們的注意力應該集中在透過實力實現和平。

And we're also seeing really strong pull from some of our European counterparts, where they're rearmoring as well in response to the Ukraine, Russia conflict. So yes, we did see an uptick. We're expecting to see that number go up maybe 7% as we go into 2025. So we're expecting to see additional growth and that's without this additional spending. If that were to come to fruition, that would be an additional tailwind for us as well.

我們也看到一些歐洲同行展現了強勁的拉力，為了回應烏克蘭和俄羅斯的衝突，他們也在重新紮營。是的，我們確實看到了上漲。我們預計到 2025 年這一數字可能會上升 7%。因此，我們預計會看到額外的成長，而且這還不包括額外支出。如果這個目標得以實現，對我們來說也會是額外的順風。

Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Phil Gibbs。

Kim and Don, was there any revenue catch-up in the fourth quarter from some of the third quarter issues -- I remember there were some operational issues and some hurricane impacts. So was there a timing issue stated with some of the shipments perhaps going out in the fourth quarter and making up for some of the third quarter deposit?

Kim 和 Don，第四季度的收入是否趕上了第三季度的一些問題——我記得有一些營運問題和颶風的影響。那麼是否存在時間問題，部分貨物可能在第四季發出，並彌補第三季的部分押金？

So I'm going to take that one. The short answer is yes. We did see some of that, as you pointed out, with the operational challenges that we had in Q3. Also, there were some bottlenecks, if you recall, back in Q3, we had some material that was toward the end of the production and shipping process that was held up right at the end due to things like hurricanes, right?

所以我要選擇那個。簡短的回答是肯定的。正如您所指出的，我們確實在第三季面臨的營運挑戰中看到了一些這樣的情況。此外，如果您還記得的話，在第三季度，存在一些瓶頸，我們的一些材料在生產和運輸過程即將結束時，由於颶風等原因而被耽擱了，對嗎？

And so we saw a release of some of that. So yeah, you would have seen some of that benefit our Q3. It's one of the reasons I would say we overperformed a bit from a top-line standpoint.

因此我們看到了其中一些內容的發布。是的，您會看到其中的一些對我們的第三季有利的因素。這是我認為我們從營收角度表現略超預期的原因之一。

Magnitude, probably think in terms of $20 million or something in that range, plus or minus. But there is another element that I would also point out because as you look at our revenue performance in Q4, it was very good, reflected order patterns that were very positive.

規模，大概是 2000 萬美元左右，或在這個範圍內，正負皆可。但我還想指出另一個因素，因為當你看我們第四季的營收表現時，它非常好，反映出非常正面的訂單模式。

Part of those order patterns reflected that when the Boeing work stoppage ended and the supply chain started to become more confident, we started seeing some of our customers more on the jet engine side, say, hey, we want to take some of the material that's ready and was intended to ship in Q1 and we would like to see that. We want to see that in our inventory by the end of the year. We wanted in position for the impending ramp.

這些訂單模式的一部分反映出，當波音公司停工結束，供應鏈開始變得更加自信時，我們開始看到一些客戶更專注於噴射發動機方面，他們說，嘿，我們想拿走一些已準備就緒並計劃在第一季度發貨，我們希望看到這一點。我們希望在今年年底前看到我們的庫存。我們希望在即將出現的斜坡前就位。

And so the way to think about that was probably something in the range of $25 million to $30 million of revenue that moved from Q1 into Q4. And those are positives to the top line. We did have -- if you're following it to the bottom line, we did have some less-than-favorable mix involved with the revenue in the quarter that took some of the heat off of those additional revenues as they drop through. But still, those are the dynamics you want to think about when you see that $1.170 billion of Q4 revenue.

因此，可以這樣想：從第一季到第四季度，收入大概在 25​​00 萬美元到 3000 萬美元之間。這些對於營收來說都是正面因素。我們確實有——如果你追蹤它的底線，我們在本季的收入中確實有一些不太有利的組合，隨著額外收入的下降，這些組合減輕了額外收入的壓力。但是，當您看到第四季度 11.7 億美元的收入時，您仍然需要考慮這些動態。

Thank you. And when you all talked about the $18 million benefit to EBITDA in the oil and gas rights, one, was that in AA&S and I would assume that was all gain or credit and no revenue associated with it. And if that's correct, what was the positive earnings impact from that?

謝謝。當你們都談到石油和天然氣權利的 1800 萬美元 EBITDA 收益時，其中之一就是 AA&S，我認為這都是收益或信用，而不是與之相關的收入。如果這是正確的，那麼這對獲利有何正面影響？

So for the $18 million, so the $18 million had two components -- just to make sure we're talking about the same thing. So the $18 million that related to the oil gas gain that was booked at the corporate level as a gain, so not as any revenue whatsoever. Then the other part of the $18 million we mentioned related to tax credits that the IRS had changed their -- or updated their rules related to the recognition of those credits. They're above-the-line credits.

所以對於 1800 萬美元來說，1800 萬美元有兩個部分——只是為了確保我們談論的是同一件事。因此，與石油天然氣收益相關的 1,800 萬美元在公司層級被記為收益，而不是任何收入。然後，我們提到的 1800 萬美元的另一部分與稅收抵免有關，美國國稅局已經改變了他們的稅收抵免，或者更新了與承認這些抵免相關的規則。這些都是高於標準的信用。

That represented $10.4 million of out-of-period and that $10.4 million was recorded in AA&S and it would have been recorded not as revenue, but as a reduction to expense.

這代表著 1040 萬美元的期外支出，而這 1040 萬美元記錄在 AA&S 中，因此它不會被記錄為收入，而是作為費用的減少。

Okay. So out of the $18 million, $10.4 million of it was this IRS credit and the remainder, the $7.6 million would have been the oil and gas gain, is that correct?

好的。那麼，1,800 萬美元中，1,040 萬美元是國稅局抵免額，剩餘的 760 萬美元是石油和天然氣收益，對嗎？

You got broad strokes. Yeah. And the oil and gas gain, I mean, we were rounding some of the numbers, right? But the oil and gas gain for the quarter, was $8 million. For the full year, by the way, it was $11 million, which there are things to get excited about one of the things we get excited about is the redeployment of capital, selling assets -- those gas rates are a great example of redeploying capital into more value-added activities. So -- but that's just a side number.

你的想法很廣泛。是的。至於石油和天然氣的收益，我的意思是，我們對一些數字進行了四捨五入，對嗎？但本季的石油和天然氣收益為 800 萬美元。順便說一下，全年的利潤為1100 萬美元，這其中有一些令人興奮的事情，其中​​之一就是資本的重新部署，出售資產——這些天然氣價格是資本重新部署的一個很好的例子投入更具附加價值的活動。所以——但這只是一個附加數字。

Okay, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

Andre Madrid, BTIG.

安德烈馬德里，BTIG。

Kim, Don, good morning. Let's see. Looking back on some of what you've outlined before, I think roughly three-quarters of your zirconium supply comes from China. How should we think about the potential impact of tariffs there, especially just with relation with China moving forward? I mean is this anything that we should see as a risk? Or are you actively seeking ways to diversify away or if that's even possible?

Kim、Don，早安。讓我們來看看。回顧您之前概述的一些內容，我認為大約四分之三的鋯供應來自中國。我們該如何看待關稅的潛在影響，尤其是未來與中國的關係？我的意思是，我們是否應該將此視為風險？或者您是否正在積極尋求實現多元化的方法或者這是否有可能？

Yeah. Thank you. Yes. So not quite big quarters, but it is a mixture between a material from China and then material that comes from a couple of other sources. So yeah, we have been working, especially with our customer on the program at identifying other sources and we have identified some second sources so that we could use that to offset if the material becomes difficult to receive.

是的。謝謝。是的。因此，這不是很大的一塊，但它是來自中國的材料和來自其他幾個來源的材料的混合物。是的，我們一直在努力，特別是與我們的客戶一起尋找其他來源，並且我們已經確定了一些第二個來源，以便如果材料難以接收，我們可以用它來抵消。

I think tariffs, we've been paying tariffs on this material. I do think we've been working and some of that uptick you saw in the fourth quarter was us getting into position with our customer to able to be prepared depending on how this volatile situation continues to evolve.

我認為是關稅，我們一直在為這種材料支付關稅。我確實認為我們一直在努力，而您在第四季度看到的一些上漲是我們與客戶一起做好準備，以應對這種不穩定局勢的持續發展。

And I'd say the third thing that we're doing is we have been -- and we're going to continue to place a physical hedge. We are bringing in material ahead of this kind of ongoing trade discussions back and forth between us and China. And so it's -- we're doing many things, I think, to offset that.

我想說我們正在做的第三件事是——我們已經並且將繼續進行實體對沖。我們正在為我們與中國之間持續進行的此類貿易談判提供資料。所以，我認為我們正在做很多事情來抵消這種影響。

Fundamentally, it won't stop demand. It would have some -- or production it would have some impact if we weren't able to get any material, but I do think we've got other sources that will allow us to continue to get that and continue to produce. It's just going to be a matter of what is the volatility in the supply and the pricing over here in the next few months and maybe going into the year.

從根本上來說，它不會停止需求。如果我們無法獲得任何材料，這會產生一些影響，或者對生產會產生一些影響，但我確實認為我們有其他來源可以讓我們繼續獲得材料並繼續生產。問題只是未來幾個月甚至今年的供應和定價波動情況。

Super helpful color. Thank you. And then I guess sticking on just material supply. How much recycled material in your operations are you able to reuse? I assume it's also very depending on the strategic material, but any color there would be helpful.

超有用的顏色。謝謝。然後我想只堅持物質供應。您在營運過程中能夠重複使用多少再生材料？我認為這也非常取決於戰略材料，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

That is a good question because it does vary across the materials. It is something that we're pushing. So it's a pretty high percentage when you think about titanium in particular. I'd say anywhere from 50% to 75% of the materials that we use in our melting operations that are coming from recycled or revert and the recycle stream coming back in.

這是一個好問題，因為它確實因材料不同而不同。這是我們正在推動的事情。如果你考慮到鈦的話，這個比例是相當高的。我想說，我們在熔煉操作中使用的材料有 50% 到 75% 都來自回收或還原以及返回的回收流。

On the zirconium side, that is something, especially on hafnium as well that we've been really pushing because it is in such high demand. Prices are very, very high today. So we've been working with the chip manufacturers, the precursors manufacturers to develop revert and recycle stream so that we can recapture that and put it back into good product and they've been very supportive of those activities.

就鋯而言，尤其是鉿，我們一直在大力推動，因為它的需求量很大。如今的價格非常非常高。因此，我們一直在與晶片製造商、前體製造商合作開發恢復和回收流程，以便我們能夠重新獲得這些資源並將其重新投入到好的產品中，他們非常支持這些活動。

On the nickel side as well, I'd say we run pretty high blend rates on that, and there's a pretty robust recycled loop. So generally, if I step back from it, it's anywhere from 30% to 75% of our products at any one time could be made with scrap and recycled materials.

在鎳方面，我想說我們的混合率也相當高，而且回收循環也相當強勁。因此一般來說，如果我退一步來說，那麼我們的產品中任何時候都有 30% 到 75% 可以用廢料和再生材料製成。

Obviously, we make those decisions based on availability and pricing, and we try to adjust to get the best optimizable for our customers. So yeah, it is something that we're continuing to drive though, both from a footprint standpoint and a green standpoint as well as cost and availability.

顯然，我們根據可用性和定價做出這些決定，並嘗試進行調整以便為客戶提供最佳的最佳化。是的，這是我們將繼續推動的事情，無論從足跡的角度還是綠色的角度，也無論從成本和可用性的角度。

Thanks for the detail. I really appreciate it, Kim. I'll jump back in.

謝謝你的詳細說明。我真的很感激，金。我會跳回去。

Sure.

當然。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

坦納斯（Timna Tanners），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

I wanted to ask about the operational disruptions. I know you identified and one of them is solidly in the rearview mirror, but there was one that was going to trickle into Q2. So can you just remind us where that stands? And also, any updated measures to keep ensuring that the operations are smoothly running?

我想詢問一下有關營運中斷的情況。我知道你已經確定了，其中一個已經在後視鏡中顯現出來，但有一個將會滲透到 Q2。那您能提醒我們一下情況嗎？此外，還有什麼更新措施來確保營運順利進行？

Sure, sure. I'll take that one. Let me address that question in two parts that you asked there. One is just to give an update on the Q3 status and the challenges that we face towards the end of the quarter. And then secondly, more broadly, how we're seeing in our operations to continually improve reliability and productivity. So to your first point, Q3, we did experience several challenges, many of them towards the end of the quarter that made it difficult for us to fully recover.

當然，當然。我要那個。讓我分成兩部分來回答你提出的問題。一是更新第三季的狀況以及我們在本季末面臨的挑戰。其次，更廣泛地說，我們如何在營運中持續提高可靠性和生產力。關於您的第一點，在第三季度，我們確實遇到了一些挑戰，其中許多挑戰發生在季度末，這讓我們很難完全恢復。

But the team did a nice job at resolving the nickel-zinc melt issues in the [wind shop]. And these are behind us today. The shop is operational, stable. And in fact, some of the engineered solutions I talked about (inaudible) that we put into place are allowing us to exceed targets and post new records.

但團隊在解決鎳鋅熔化問題方面做得很好【風之鋪子】。如今這些都已成為過去。店鋪營運正常，穩定。事實上，我之前談到的（聽不清楚）我們實施的一些工程解決方案使我們超越了目標並創下了新紀錄。

The second is the (inaudible). And as expected, as we communicated, as you mentioned, this is targeted to be completed it. It is on track but that -- those repairs are in progress and ongoing. And the team did a nice job there as well at putting employees outside processors to help us restore flow and continue to get the material flowing until the fix is completed. So both of those are stable.

第二個是（聽不清楚）。正如我們所預期的那樣，正如您所說，這個目標是完成它。一切進展順利，但修復工作仍在進行中。而且團隊在這方面也做得很好，他們把員工安排到處理器之外，幫助我們恢復流程，並繼續讓材料流動，直到修復完成。因此這兩者都是穩定的。

We're continuing to work on the (inaudible), and we still expect that to be back online in the second quarter. The second point around just how are we thinking about this from a broad routine maintenance standpoint, and as you mentioned, routine maintenance happens all the time every quarter in different areas of operations.

我們正在繼續努力（聽不清楚），我們仍預計第二季將恢復正常。第二點是關於我們如何從廣泛的日常維護角度考慮這個問題，正如您所提到的，日常維護每個季度都會在不同的營運領域進行。

These outages are incorporated into our guidance, and the team is always working to reduce that downtime to make it more effective for preventive remaintenance and more broadly, we are continuing to invest in reliability, as you mentioned, and preventative maintenance programs. This has been an ongoing priority for us and isn't a reaction to the recent issues.

這些中斷已納入我們的指導中，團隊始終致力於減少停機時間，以使預防性維護更加有效，更廣泛地說，正如您所提到的，我們將繼續在可靠性和預防性維護計劃方面進行投資。這一直是我們的首要任務，並不是對最近問題的反應。

And a big part of this is going to be the asset redeployment that we sold some assets that Don just talked about here a moment ago, some with the oil and gas rights, one with an operating asset and redeploying those into growth, reliability and debottlenecking. And so we're continuing to invest in technology, engineered solutions, the use of artificial intelligence, which I talked about a little bit in my prepared remarks, to really put in sensors and automation that allow us to predict when equipment seems to be drifting when we start to see issues and then eliminate those equipment issues proactively as they occur. So there's a lot of great work. I mentioned some of the records that the teams are achieving.

其中很大一部分是資產重新部署，我們出售了一些唐剛才提到的資產，一些是石油和天然氣權，一個是運營資產，然後重新部署到增長、可靠性和瓶頸消除方面。因此，我們將繼續投資技術、工程解決方案和人工智慧的使用，我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，真正投入感測器和自動化，讓我們能夠預測設備何時會出現偏差當我們開始發現問題時，我們會在問題發生時主動消除這些問題。因此，有很多出色的工作。我提到了球隊正在創造的一些記錄。

I do think this is an ongoing focus. We've been talking about debottlenecking. We've been talking about reliability I think each quarter, we're continuing to improve and get momentum there. And I will say the last quarter has been very stable operationally and the team is doing a nice job. You can see -- start to see some of these results coming through.

我確實認為這是一個持續的焦點。我們一直在談論消除瓶頸。我認為我們每個季度都在談論可靠性，我們會繼續改進並獲得發展動力。我想說的是，上個季度的營運非常穩定，團隊做得很好。您可以看到 - 開始看到其中一些結果的出現。

Okay. That's great to hear. I wanted to ask a follow-up. I know we've been talking a lot about tariffs and for all we know, this will all get resolved really quickly. But Europe has been also (multiple speakers) I just wanted to -- yes. It's hard to predict. But with Europe, I just wanted to ask if there were tariffs on Europe and for the retaliatory tariffs, how do you think about those? And even if you have any thoughts on like the likelihood would be great.

好的。我很高興聽到這個消息。我想問一個後續問題。我知道我們已經討論了很多有關關稅的問題，據我們所知，這一切都會很快得到解決。但歐洲也一直如此（多位發言者），我只是想──是的。這很難預測。但對於歐洲，我只想問一下，如果對歐洲徵收關稅以及報復性關稅，您對此有何看法？即使您對此有任何想法，可能性也很大。

Well, I'll take your second question. The likelihood is hard to predict. I think the likelihood is high. that there will be some discussion from our President and administration of some tariffs. I think he's indicated that, right, as he's talked and I've seen statements. So will those come to fruition? Will they be implemented in what way and at what level? That's hard to predict.

好吧，我來回答你的第二個問題。這個可能性很難預測。我認為可能性很高。我們的總統和政府將會討論一些關稅。我認為他已經表明了這一點，正如他所說，而且我也看到了聲明。那麼這些會實現嗎？它們將以何種方式、在哪個層面實施？這很難預測。

I do think we are in a good position similar to the tariffs that he was talking about with our near partners here with Canada and Mexico. We've dual source as far as incoming materials, and we do have those pass-through mechanisms in place in those contracts as well.

我確實認為，我們處於有利地位，類似於他與加拿大和墨西哥等近鄰夥伴討論的關稅問題。就進料而言，我們有雙重來源，並且在這些合約中也設有這些傳遞機制。

And so again, it was very important. We focused on passing through inflation and making sure that we capture things like tariffs as well as building tariff language into our contracts. So I'll give our legal department, a few props there.

所以，這又非常重要。我們專注於轉嫁通貨膨脹，確保我們能夠捕捉到關稅等內容，並將關稅語言納入我們的合約中。因此，我要向我們的法律部門致以一些敬意。

They did a nice job in anticipating some things that could be coming on the horizon. And so I do think we're in a good position to be able to respond to probably a changing situation I think the one comment I'll make is that I am monitoring the relationship between Russia and the US and frankly, Russia and the rest of the world.

他們很好地預測了即將發生的一些事情。因此，我確實認為我們處於一個良好的位置，能夠應對可能不斷變化的局勢。

So that dynamic is another one that we're going to continue to watch. I don't see significant impacts in 2025. But depending on how that evolves, there could be impacts further out in the quarter. I'm sorry, not in the quarter, but in this decade.

因此，我們將繼續關注這一動態。我認為 2025 年不會產生重大影響。但根據事態如何發展，可能會對本季產生進一步的影響。抱歉，不是本季，而是本十年。

Okay, thanks again.

好的，再次感謝。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Don, is the elevated CapEx for 2025 a pull forward of future CapEx or is this the level we should run rate going forward?

唐，2025 年資本支出的增加是未來資本支出的提前，還是我們未來應該維持的水準？

I wouldn't run rate it. And actually, I appreciate you asking the question. We've been very, very consistent in terms of what we had what we've communicated as the expectation for capital investment. So going to $270 million this year is really a reflection of a couple of things.

我不會對其進行評分。事實上，我很感謝您提出這個問題。就我們所傳達的資本投資預期而言，我們一直非常非常一致。因此，今年達到 2.7 億美元實際上反映了幾件事。

First of all, it's still a part of that, on average, $200 million a year. As a matter of fact, if you go into the appendix of the presentation deck for today's call, you're going to see we added a schedule. And that schedule shows you how we calculate whether or not we're on track to that $200 million commitment for capital investment for growth and reliability and maintenance.

首先，它仍然是其中的一部分，平均每年 2 億美元。事實上，如果您查看今天電話會議簡報的附錄，您會看到我們新增了時間表。這個時間表向你展示了我們如何計算我們是否能夠履行為成長、可靠性和維護而進行的 2 億美元資本投資承諾。

And what you'll see in that calculation is, we first put out our $200 million-per-year target in 2022. I reiterated that in 2023. If you look at the schedule that we show, it shows that rolling average, rolling annual average for CapEx, and it is -- since 2022, it averages in that $184 million, I believe, $182 million, $184 million. So we are absolutely within the range of the guidance that we've given. I do view the $270 million as an increase above what you would normally describe as gross CapEx.

您會在計算中看到，我們首先在 2022 年提出了每年 2 億美元的目標。我重申，2023年。如果您查看我們展示的時間表，它顯示了資本支出的滾動平均值、滾動年平均值 - 自 2022 年以來，平均為 1.84 億美元，我相信是 1.82 億美元，1.84 億美元。因此，我們完全在我們給出的指導範圍內。我確實認為 2.7 億美元比通常所描述的總資本支出有所增加。

Keep in mind, though, we're redeploying the proceeds from asset sales that we executed in 2024 and a lot of that was late 2024. We're going to take that capital and we're going to put it into higher returning, higher value uses, and that is largely going to be through CapEx investment.

不過請記住，我們正在重新部署 2024 年執行的資產出售所得，其中大部分是在 2024 年底。我們將利用這些資本，將其投入到回報更高、價值更高的用途上，而這主要將透過資本支出投資來實現。

And so it's been a part of our key strategy. It happened that the proceeds from asset sales in 2024 were higher than we typically see but it's still part of the same strategy, and we still expect the same return profile, which is north of 30% on those investments. So we're -- it's all holding together.

所以它是我們關鍵戰略的一部分。事實上，2024 年資產出售的收益高於我們通常看到的收益，但這仍然是同一策略的一部分，我們仍然預期回報率將保持不變，即這些投資的回報率將超過 30%。所以，我們—一切都保持著聯繫。

So as you look out into the future, what you should expect is past 2025, you're going to see a similar pattern for us as we keep that commitment around spending something in the range of $200 million on average for CapEx annually. Does that help?

因此，展望未來，您應該預期到 2025 年以後，您將看到類似的模式，因為我們將信守承諾，即每年平均在資本支出上花費約 2 億美元。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yeah, that's great. And then, Kim, just on the jet engine side, are you starting to see a healthier balance of wide-body jet engine growth at this point in the cycle? Or is most of the jet engine growth you're seeing still on the narrow-body side?

是的，太棒了。然後，Kim，僅從噴射引擎方面來看，在這個週期階段，您是否開始看到寬體噴射引擎的成長更加平衡？或者您所看到的大部分噴氣發動機的增長仍然集中在窄體飛機方面？

As I think about it, it's been probably more active on the single aisle. We are starting to see some pulls. We've had some conversations at the end of last year. I do think the engine OEMs are getting ready for the wide-body ramp. We have heard indications of increased order rates this year as those pools keep coming.

我想，它在單通道上可能更活躍。我們開始看到一些拉動因素。我們在去年年底進行過一些對話。我確實認為發動機原始設備製造商正在為寬體飛機的普及做準備。隨著這些泳池的不斷湧入，我們聽到了今年訂單率上升的跡象。

But I would say probably the most predominant demand signal that we're seeing today is really around MRO. And the shop visits and the upgrades for lifeing issues on all the programs and again, it really shows up when you look at our forged products business with their lead times out over a year, it's probably the largest backlog that they've had in their history.

但我想說，我們今天看到的最主要的需求訊號實際上是圍繞 MRO 的。而且所有項目的維修和升級都涉及到車間問題，當你看到我們的鍛造產品業務時，這一點確實很明顯，他們的交貨時間超過一年，這可能是他們有史以來最大的積壓訂單。歷史。

And as I'm talking with the OEMs, and they're sharing a large percentage of their demand is from MRL, 40% 50%, 60%. And they're not forecasting that to drop, certainly not this year, but in the next few years. So I would expect, like I said, I'm watching, if the wide-bodies start to take work towards that step change. And I think I speak at least one airframer talk about preparing for that step rate change that we'll start to see those orders being placed and being firmly committed rather than just talking about reserve capacity.

當我與 OEM 溝通時，他們表示，他們的需求很大一部分來自 MRL，佔 40%、50%、60%。他們預測這一數字不會下降，當然不是今年，但會在未來幾年下降。因此，正如我所說，我預計，我正在觀察寬體飛機是否開始朝著這項轉變努力。我認為至少有一位飛機製造商談到了為逐步改變的費率做準備，我們將開始看到這些訂單被下達並得到堅定的承諾，而不僅僅是談論儲備能力。

Okay. And then just to clarify, are wide-bodies and sales typically higher margin than narrow-body jet engine sales for similar products? Or is it pretty similar? Just trying to get a sense if you do get that wide-body jet engine recovery if that's official to your incremental margins in the future?

好的。然後需要澄清的是，寬體飛機的銷售利潤率通常是否高於同類產品的窄體噴射發動機銷售利潤率？或者說很相似？只是想了解一下，如果您確實實現了寬體噴射引擎的恢復，這是否會對您未來的增量利潤產生官方影響？

Yeah. I would say -- maybe not as related to wide-body versus single-aisle engines, but the materials that go into those wide-body engines are very differentiated. And so we would expect to see a slight uptick in margins given those materials that were difficult to make. A lot of them are powdered alloys and so you're going to see that, that is going to be an accretive to our margin.

是的。我想說——也許與寬體發動機和單通道發動機無關，但用於寬體發動機的材料有很大差異。因此，考慮到這些材料難以製造，我們預計利潤率將略有上升。其中很多都是粉狀合金，所以你會看到，這將會增加我們的利潤。

Josh Sullivan, Benchmark Company.

喬許‧沙利文 (Josh Sullivan)，Benchmark Company。

Can you just expand on the comments about Russia, you just mentioned, what do you see as the scenarios of the Ukranian deal is reached? How should we think of that headline, obviously, potential titanium supply returning versus what you actually think will evolve in the titanium market? And then maybe conversely, I guess, are there any exotic minerals from Russia that might be helpful for (inaudible)

您能否就剛才提到的有關俄羅斯的評論進行擴展，您認為達成烏克蘭協議的前景如何？我們應該如何看待這個標題，顯然，潛在的鈦供應回升與您實際認為的鈦市場發展相比？那麼反過來想，俄羅斯是否有任何奇特的礦物可能對（聽不清楚）

Yes. So there's lots of (inaudible) and talk about specifically VSMPO coming back into the market and providing titanium parts and forgings. I'd say from our perspective, as we're looking at it, but we're monitoring the relations and how the US reacts and frankly, how the European players react because they may be different at their acceptance and rate of normalizing relations.

是的。因此有很多（聽不清楚）關於 VSMPO 重返市場並提供鈦零件和鍛件的討論。我想說，從我們的角度來看，我們正在關注這個問題，但我們正在監測兩國關係以及美國的反應，坦白說，我們也在關注歐洲參與者的反應，因為他們對兩國關係正常化的接受程度和速度可能有所不同。

As I look at it, there is going to be -- and I recognize there's going to be a requalification period that's going to take some time. Even once relations have normalized and things are starting to progress, there's going to be this requalification that we have to work through. And what I'm hearing is that a lot of the expertise that were there that help lead these programs, lead these operations have -- are no longer there.

我認為，將會有——並且我認識到將會有一個重新認證期，這將需要一些時間。即使兩國關係已經恢復正常並且事情開始取得進展，我們仍然需要努力重新確定這個問題。我聽到的是，許多曾經幫助領導這些計畫、領導這些行動的專業人員已經不存在了。

And so I do think it's going to take some time for that to reramp and come back online and meet the high standards from a quality standpoint. So in the short term, for 2025, I don't see that as a significant threat. I do think it's something to monitor as it continues to evolve, and we'll see how rapidly they're able to get that expertise and start restarting their operations and requalifying. But I do think there will be some significant qualifications that need to be redone.

因此，我確實認為需要花一些時間來重新啟動並恢復在線狀態並從品質角度滿足高標準。因此從短期來看，對於 2025 年來說，我認為這不是一個重大威脅。我確實認為這是值得監控的事情，因為它會繼續發展，我們將看到他們能夠多快獲得專業知識並開始重啟營運和重新獲得資格。但我確實認為有一些重要的資格要求需要重新確定。

As far as the benefit for us, yeah, I mean, Russia was a very large source of nickel for us in the past, and it's something that we moved away from stopped purchasing there. So there could be some benefits of [norells] coming back into the market and providing materials. And again, it was a very high quality, a good relationship. They were a good supplier in the past.

就我們所得到的利益而言，是的，我的意思是，俄羅斯過去是我們的一個很大的鎳來源國，我們已經不再從那裡購買了。因此，norells 重返市場並提供材料可能會帶來一些好處。再說一次，這是一種非常高品質、良好的關係。他們過去是一家很好的供應商。

So that could be a positive for us. So another thing that we're continuing to look at. I'd say the last thing just to mention, as I think about the supply chain, I do believe, and I shared it a couple of times today around our resiliency to trade and tariffs that we've built, dual sourcing and derisk our supply chain.

所以這對我們來說可能是件好事。我們正在繼續關注的另一件事。最後我想說的是，當我想到供應鏈時，我確實相信，今天我已經分享了幾次關於我們建立的貿易和關稅彈性，雙重採購和降低風險供應鏈。

I do believe across the industry that all of the players have learned that lesson and at a very recent lesson around making sure you've derisked and you've got dual sources and you can stay nimble in the face of uncertainty and changing times. And so I'm not sure that I see the industry going back to as heavy of a reliance on any one source, be it via [MPO] or any other one.

我確實相信，整個行業的所有參與者都已經學到了這個教訓，最近的教訓是確保你已經降低風險，擁有雙重來源，並且能夠在不確定性和變化的時代面前保持靈活。因此，我不確定該行業是否會重新嚴重依賴任何一個來源，無論是透過[MPO]還是其他任何來源。

So I don't know if -- the dynamic they may come back in, it may normalize, but I'm not -- it's not going to go back to what it was because I think that lesson has been firmly learned by all of us here in the supply chain.

所以我不知道——他們的動態可能會恢復，可能會正常化，但我不會——它不會回到原來的樣子，因為我認為所有人都已經牢牢吸取了這個教訓我們位於供應鏈之中。

Got it. Thank you for that. And just I think one last one in here. Just on the aero-like markets, what do you lead times look like just given the very long cycle nature of those markets.

知道了。謝謝你。我認為這裡只剩下最後一個了。僅在航空類市場，考慮到這些市場的周期非常長，您的交貨時間是怎樣的？

I believe those lead times are about six to nine months on most of those products, there is very high demand the specialty energy, nuclear products, I would say that demand continues to grow, especially I know there's a lot of energy around data centers and energy needs. But the resurgence of nuclear are having those come back pretty strongly globally.

我相信大多數產品的交貨時間大約是六到九個月，特種能源、核子產品的需求非常高，我想說需求會持續成長，特別是我知道資料中心周圍有很多能源，能源需求。但核能的復甦正在全球強勢回歸。

And from, obviously, electronics chip production, especially with the investments here in the US and from a global standpoint, lead times are very long across the whole market. So Aero-Like I said, it's great. I'm very excited about the growth there. I think the team is doing a great job. We're working to get more capacity, but lead times do continue to be very long.

顯然，從電子晶片生產（尤其是在美國的投資）和全球角度來看，整個市場的交貨時間都非常長。所以 Aero——就像我說的，它很棒。我對那裡的發展感到非常興奮。我認為該團隊表現出色。我們正在努力提高產能，但交貨時間仍然很長。

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. So I will now hand back to David for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言交還給戴維，請他作最後發言。

Yeah. Thank you very much for your time today on our fourth quarter call. Please feel free to reach out to myself and Clay on the Investor Relations team with any follow-up questions, and have a great day.

是的。非常感謝您今天抽出時間參加我們的第四季電話會議。如有任何後續問題，請隨時與我和投資者關係團隊的 Clay 聯繫，祝您有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。