ATI Inc (ATI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to ATI's third-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Lydia, and I will be your operator today.

大家好，歡迎參加 ATI 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫莉迪亞，今天我將成為你們的接線生。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'll now hand you over to Dave Weston, Vice President, Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.

現在我將把您交給投資者關係副總裁 Dave Weston 開始。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to ATI's third-quarter 2024 earnings call. Today's discussion is being webcast online at atimaterials.com. Participating in today's call to share key points from our third quarter results, are Kim Fields, President and CEO; and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 ATI 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的討論將在 atimaterials.com 上進行線上網路直播。總裁兼執行長 Kim Fields 參加了今天的電話會議，分享了我們第三季業績的要點；執行副總裁兼財務長唐紐曼 (Don Newman)。

Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook and can also be found on our website at atimaterials.com.

在開始我們準備好的演講之前，我想提請您注意本次電話會議附帶的補充簡報。這些幻燈片提供了有關我們的結果和前景的更多顏色和詳細信息，也可以在我們的網站 atimaterials.com 上找到。

After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the accompanying presentation.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開通提問熱線。提醒一下，所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種假設和警告的影響。這些都在收益報告和隨附的演示文稿中得到了說明。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kim.

現在我將把電話轉給 Kim。

Thanks, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying our team is motivated by our mission to support our customers, consistently providing the highest quality product even as we navigate market and supply chain turbulence.

謝謝，戴夫。大家早安。首先我要說的是，我們的團隊受到支持客戶的使命的激勵，即使在市場和供應鏈動盪的情況下，也始終如一地提供最高品質的產品。

As you saw in our earnings release, the third quarter represents mixed results for ATI. While there are positive highlights and accomplishments achieved, the team and I are disappointed by the shortfall to our financial guidance. Our performance was not what we strive for. We can and we will do better.

正如您在我們的財報中看到的那樣，ATI 第三季的業績好壞參半。儘管取得了積極的亮點和成就，但我和團隊對我們的財務指導的不足感到失望。我們的表現並不是我們所追求的。我們可以而且會做得更好。

On today's call, I'll walk through the challenges we encountered this quarter and how we are responding to them. For the third quarter, our adjusted EBITDA was approximately $186 million, up from our Q2 EBITDA of approximately $183 million. However, it was below our guided range of $189 million to $199 million.

在今天的電話會議上，我將介紹我們本季遇到的挑戰以及我們如何應對這些挑戰。第三季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 約為 1.86 億美元，高於第二季的約 1.83 億美元。然而，它低於我們 1.89 億至 1.99 億美元的指引範圍。

Adjusted earnings per share was $0.60, below our guided range of $0.63 to $0.69 per share. We've adjusted our expectations for the coming quarter and the full year 2024 to account for ongoing headwinds related to supply chain uncertainties, and one remaining operational challenge.

調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元，低於我們每股 0.63 美元至 0.69 美元的指引範圍。我們調整了對下一季和 2024 年全年的預期，以應對與供應鏈不確定性相關的持續不利因素以及剩餘的營運挑戰。

We anticipate sequential growth for the fourth quarter, and we are continuing to pursue opportunities to exceed the guidance ranges that Don will walk you through today. We will be transparent in what these changes in business conditions could look like through the end of the year and what has been incorporated into our guidance. While our total growth fell short of expectations, the quarter did include several bright spots showing momentum in key focus areas.

我們預計第四季度將實現環比增長，並且我們將繼續尋找機會超越唐今天將向您介紹的指導範圍。我們將透明地說明到年底商業狀況的這些變化可能會是什麼樣子，以及哪些內容已納入我們的指導中。儘管我們的整體成長低於預期，但本季確實出現了一些在關鍵重點領域顯示出勢頭的亮點。

Segment adjusted EBITDA margins met or exceeded our expectations. In HPMC, we saw over 200 basis points of sequential improvement in segment EBITDA margin, moving closer to the mid-20s range that we see as achievable in the near term for this core A&D segment. In AA&S, our segment EBITDA margin was approximately 15%, consistent with our expectations as our mix of A&D work continues to build in this segment.

部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率達到或超出了我們的預期。在 HPMC，我們看到該細分市場的 EBITDA 利潤率環比提高了 200 個基點以上，接近 20 左右的範圍，我們認為這一核心 A&D 細分市場在短期內可以實現這一目標。在 AA&S 領域，我們的部門 EBITDA 利潤率約為 15%，與我們的預期一致，因為我們的 A&D 工作組合繼續在該部門建立。

Our consolidated EBITDA margins increased by 100 basis points as we continue to improve price and mix and take operating costs out of our business. Our A&D mix remains greater than 60%, and our backlog remains stable as we continue to book new business across both segments. These achievements underscore that the underlying fundamentals of our strategy are working to expand margin and drive value creation for the future.

隨著我們不斷改善價格和產品組合併降低業務營運成本，我們的綜合 EBITDA 利潤率增加了 100 個基點。我們的 A&D 組合仍然超過 60%，隨著我們繼續在這兩個領域預訂新業務，我們的積壓訂單保持穩定。這些成就強調了我們策略的基本原理是致力於擴大利潤並推動未來的價值創造。

So why did this quarter's results fall short of our guidance. Let's set the foundation. Our ranges for guidance are intended to cover our high and low end expectations based on customer demand and operational performance. They contemplate variables like supply chain performance and operating efficiency as well as non-operating items.

那麼為什麼本季的業績未達到我們的指導呢？讓我們打好基礎。我們的指導範圍旨在根據客戶需求和營運績效涵蓋我們的高端和低端期望。他們考慮供應鏈績效、營運效率以及非營運項目等變數。

This quarter, the impact of market volatility and operational performance issues exceeded what we had anticipated. Most notably, much of this volatility materialized late in the quarter, limiting our options to offset the risks that were realized. These risks were evenly split between customer demand changes and operational challenges.

本季度，市場波動和經營業績問題的影響超出了我們的預期。最值得注意的是，這種波動大部分在本季末出現，限制了我們抵銷已實現風險的選擇。這些風險在客戶需求變化和營運挑戰之間平均分配。

Let's touch on customer demand first. We've all witnessed the demand bumpiness of the commercial aerospace ramp. While backlogs and demand for commercial aircraft remain quite high, both aircraft OEMs are ramping more slowly than the industry expected. These delays worsened when Boeing's work stoppage began on September 13.

讓我們先談談客戶需求。我們都見證了商業航空航天需求的坎坷。儘管商用飛機的積壓訂單和需求仍然相當高，但這兩家飛機原始設備製造商的成長速度都比業界預期要慢。當波音公司 9 月 13 日開始停工時，這些延誤變得更加嚴重。

While some customers in Boeing maintain their orders and shipments, others in supply chain reacted quickly, managing orders around their production schedules and year-end inventory targets. Even ahead of the work stoppage, they began pushing out planned deliveries into 2025, canceling orders or not placing transactional orders.

雖然波音的一些客戶維持訂單和發貨，但供應鏈中的其他客戶迅速做出反應，圍繞生產計劃和年終庫存目標管理訂單。甚至在停工之前，他們就開始將計畫交付時間推遲到 2025 年，取消訂單或不下交易訂單。

Looking closely at our results, we believe these rapidly emerging adjustments in demand for commercial airframe materials serve as one of the key drivers for our quarter shortfall. This impact extended to the transactional business as well, which historically has been a significant contributor on top of our LTA contracts, enhancing growth over the last three years.

仔細觀察我們的結果，我們認為商用機身材料需求的快速調整是我們季度短缺的關鍵驅動因素之一。這種影響也延伸到了交易業務，該業務歷來是我們長期協議合約的重要貢獻者，促進了過去三年的成長。

Comparatively, our jet engine customers have worked to maintain supply chain momentum and limit disruption. While new engine deliveries are delayed from build rate reductions, continued MRO activity drove ongoing demand for our products.

相較之下，我們的噴射發動機客戶一直致力於維持供應鏈動力並限制干擾。雖然新引擎的交付因建造率降低而延遲，但持續的 MRO 活動推動了對我們產品的持續需求。

However, MRO demand can be less predictable. Demand variations for specific parts on specific platforms caused operational disruptions as customers reordered priorities and pushed out excess parts not immediately needed to complete an engine overhaul.

然而，MRO 需求可能不太可預測。特定平台上特定零件的需求變化導致了營運中斷，因為客戶重新排序了優先級，並推出了完成引擎大修不需要立即使用的多餘零件。

While less pronounced than with airframe, engine shipments were impacted over the last three weeks of September, reflecting accelerating supply chain dynamics. This rapidly pivoting customer demand led to increased changeovers and smaller lot sizes in our operations and ultimately decrease what was actually available for us to ship.

雖然不如機身那麼明顯，但引擎出貨量在 9 月最後三週受到了影響，反映出供應鏈動態加速。這種快速變化的客戶需求導致我們營運中的轉換增加和批量減少，最終減少了我們實際可運輸的數量。

Beyond underlying demand, customer program changes can create bottlenecks in our operations. That's what we experienced as we significantly increase production levels for our key engine program. These requirements changes caused bottlenecks in our testing and inspection areas and impacted our shipment rates.

除了潛在需求之外，客戶計劃的變化可能會對我們的營運造成瓶頸。這就是我們在顯著提高關鍵引擎專案的生產水準時所經歷的。這些要求的變化導致我們的測試和檢驗領域出現瓶頸，並影響了我們的出貨率。

We are working with the customer to implement improvements for testing outcomes and to decrease testing time. These efforts, along with our investments to triple testing capacity will support the rapid increase in part production and reduce bottlenecks. We expect output to increase as our testing capacity expands.

我們正在與客戶合作，改進測試結果並減少測試時間。這些努力，加上我們對三倍測試能力的投資，將支持零件產量的快速成長並減少瓶頸。隨著我們測試能力的擴大，我們預計產量將會增加。

What is clear underlying demand for new planes remains strong. These fundamentals support long-term growth for the commercial aero market and for ATI. The current turbulence will likely continue until the Boeing work stoppage is resolved and the supply chain realigns to consistent demand signals.

很明顯，對新飛機的潛在需求仍然強勁。這些基本面支持商業航空市場和 ATI 的長期成長。當前的動盪可能會持續下去，直到波音停工問題得到解決並且供應鏈根據一致的需求訊號重新調整。

Over the next two quarters, we anticipate modest growth as the supply chain ready for the next build rate increase, which we believe will come in the back half of 2025. The other half of our miss is related to operational challenges during the quarter. Since the pandemic, our sales have grown approximately 45%. To achieve this significant growth, we've pushed production to record highs. These record production levels leave little room for missteps.

在接下來的兩個季度，我們預計將出現溫和成長，因為供應鏈已為下一次建造率增加做好準備，我們相信這將在 2025 年下半年出現。我們的失誤的另一半與本季的營運挑戰有關。自疫情爆發以來，我們的銷售額成長了約 45%。為了實現這一顯著成長，我們將產量推至歷史新高。這些創紀錄的生產水準幾乎沒有失誤的餘地。

With that said, operations are most efficient with level, stable product flow. Disruptions create bottlenecks and inefficiencies. When unexpected outages occur, surging capacity and emerging bottlenecks can be difficult to overcome, especially when they occur in the last few weeks of the quarter as they did in Q3. One example that highlights this.

話雖如此，只有水平、穩定的產品流才能實現最高效的營運。中斷會造成瓶頸和低效率。當發生意外中斷時，激增的容量和新出現的瓶頸可能難以克服，特別是當它們發生在第三季的最後幾週時。有一個例子可以凸顯這一點。

As we push performance levels, a long standing design flaw was discovered in our HPMC nickel melt shop. Last quarter, that part flow allowed molten metal to escape and damage the equipment causing an operational outage. Our team took action immediately to restore operations and once they identified the issue, they reengineered the part effectively eliminating this risk going forward.

當我們提高性能水準時，我們的 HPMC 鎳熔煉車間發現了一個長期存在的設計缺陷。上個季度，該部分流量導致熔融金屬逸出並損壞設備，導致運作中斷。我們的團隊立即採取行動恢復運營，一旦發現問題，他們就重新設計了該部件，有效地消除了未來的風險。

Today, the operation is achieving the melt targets needed to deliver our Q4 anticipated growth. But as we were executing our recovery plan in Q3, transitory bottlenecks began to emerge due to the surging material. This as well as transportation delays related to Hurricane Helene restricted our ability to fully offset the impacts to the quarter. Each issue on its own was not significant, but aggregated they were difficult to overcome.

如今，該業務正在實現實現第四季預期成長所需的熔煉目標。但當我們執行第三季的復甦計畫時，由於材料激增，暫時的瓶頸開始出現。這以及與颶風海倫相關的運輸延誤限制了我們完全抵消本季影響的能力。每個問題本身都不重要，但加起來就很難解決。

In the AA&S segment, we experienced an outage of our vacuum annealing furnace in Oregon due to a failure caused by a new water pump we recently installed. This asset serves as the final step in a proprietary operation that primarily serves the space industry. While restoration is underway, the team is working to rapidly qualify other assets in parallel to protect our customers and mitigate sales impacts. This will continue as a headwind into the fourth quarter.

在 AA&S 領域，由於我們最近安裝的新水泵出現故障，我們位於俄勒岡州的真空退火爐發生了停駛。該資產是主要服務於航太工業的專有營運的最後一步。在恢復過程中，團隊正在努力同時快速鑑定其他資產，以保護我們的客戶並減輕銷售影響。這種不利因素將持續到第四季。

Let me emphasize. Progress has been made. Our quarterly sales exceeded $1 billion for the ninth consecutive quarter, and our expanding margins demonstrate that our strategy is on the right path. This continuing improvement throughout 2024 showcases momentum in key areas, increasing melt capacity, reducing finishing bottlenecks and improving mix and pricing. We continue to invest in reliability and debottlenecking of our production footprint. Our entire team is focused on the most vital priorities as we operate our business safely, efficiently and reliably.

讓我強調一下。已經取得了進展。我們的季度銷售額連續第九個季度超過 10 億美元，不斷擴大的利潤率表明我們的策略走在正確的道路上。2024 年的持續改善展示了關鍵領域的勢頭，包括增加熔體產能、減少精加工瓶頸以及改善組合和定價。我們繼續投資於可靠性和消除生產足跡的瓶頸。當我們安全、有效率、可靠地經營業務時，我們整個團隊都專注於最重要的優先事項。

The productivity and leveling work we're doing is building momentum. Already this quarter, we see encouraging progress. That gives me confidence that our performance will continue to improve and that our strategy is directly aligned with the growth we believe is ahead for ATI. What hasn't changed?

我們正在進行的生產力和平衡工作正在積蓄動力。本季度，我們已經看到了令人鼓舞的進展。這讓我相信我們的業績將繼續改善，我們的策略與我們認為 ATI 未來的成長直接一致。什麼沒有改變？

The future for ATI is strong. The market fundamentals are clear, aircraft production and maintenance will increase, the need to protect US and allied troops continues, critical customers in specialty energy, electronics, medical depend on our materials for the differentiated performance they need.

ATI 的未來是光明的。市場基本面很明確，飛機的生產和維護將會增加，保護美國和盟軍的需求仍然存在，特種能源、電子、醫療領域的關鍵客戶依賴我們的材料來獲得他們所需的差異化性能。

We didn't expect this ramp to be a straight line. We are confident the current market turbulence and our operational challenges will resolve. Aero and defense growth will reenergize in 2025. The end user for our products need us more than ever, and we are focused on delivering for them every single day.

我們沒想到這個坡道是一條直線。我們相信當前的市場動盪和我們的營運挑戰將會得到解決。航空和國防成長將在 2025 年重新煥發活力。我們產品的最終用戶比以往任何時候都更需要我們，我們每天都專注於為他們提供服務。

With that, I will turn it over to Don for his comments.

這樣，我將把它交給唐徵求他的意見。

Thanks, Kim. Sales volume is the foundation of our growth and performance. Many of the impacts incurred this quarter emerged as the quarter ended. As a result, sales, earnings and cash flow were lower than we anticipated three months ago. As Kim highlighted, roughly half of this impact was driven by customer demand timing and requirement changes. The other half was due to operational challenges.

謝謝，金。銷量是我們成長和業績的基礎。本季產生的許多影響在季度結束時顯現出來。結果，銷售額、收益和現金流低於我們三個月前的預期。正如 Kim 所強調的那樣，這種影響大約有一半是由客戶需求時間和需求變化所驅動的。另一半是由於營運挑戰。

Total sales were down 4% sequentially, up 2% from Q3 in 2023. We do not guide for sales, but it is reasonable to estimate that our view of the shortfall this quarter is approximately $90 million. This impact in sales timing brought our earnings below our guided ranges for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share, even with the inclusion of benefits such as reduced incentive compensation and a $3.7 million gain on the sale of oil and gas rights.

總銷售額較上季下降 4%，較 2023 年第三季成長 2%。我們不提供銷售指導，但有理由估計我們認為本季的缺口約為 9,000 萬美元。銷售時機的影響使我們的收益低於調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益的指導範圍，即使包括減少激勵薪酬和出售石油和天然氣權利的 370 萬美元收益等福利。

I think it is fair to say that we performed well on the materials we did deliver this quarter. I anticipate that trend to continue as volume increases. We expect growth to return in the fourth quarter. Looking specifically at adjusted EBITDA, our midpoint of guidance was $194 million.

我認為可以公平地說，我們在本季度交付的材料上表現良好。我預計隨著交易量的增加，這種趨勢將持續下去。我們預計第四季將恢復成長。具體來看調整後的 EBITDA，我們的指導中點為 1.94 億美元。

We delivered approximately $186 million, $8 million below midpoint. Net consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins were 17.7% of sales, up 100 basis points from Q2. This allowed us to partially offset the impact of reduced sales. We believe the realized efficiencies of this performance are sustainable for the future.

我們交付了大約 1.86 億美元，比中位數低 800 萬美元。合併調整後 EBITDA 淨利率佔銷售額的 17.7%，較第二季上升 100 個基點。這使我們能夠部分抵消銷售額減少的影響。我們相信，這種績效所實現的效率在未來是可持續的。

From a segment perspective, HPMC margins increased sequentially and year-over-year, closing at 22.3%. A&D content remains at 86%. We estimated that AA&S margins would approach 15% in the second half of 2024, and we posted 14.8% this quarter.

從細分市場來看，HPMC 利潤率較上季和年比均有所成長，最終達到 22.3%。A&D 含量維持在 86%。我們預計 AA&S 利潤率將在 2024 年下半年接近 15%，本季為 14.8%。

The sequential 160 basis point decrease in EBITDA margin is consistent with our previously announced expectations. While sales in the segment declined sequentially this quarter by 7%, year-over-year sales were up 3%, even with the volume impacts we've explained. A&D content for AA&S was 36%.

EBITDA 利潤率環比下降 160 個基點與我們先前宣布的預期一致。儘管本季該細分市場的銷售額環比下降了 7%，但即使考慮到我們已經解釋過的銷量影響，同比銷售額仍增長了 3%。AA&S 的 A&D 含量為 36%。

The consolidated margin expansion for ATI up 100 basis points this quarter and up over 300 basis points from Q1 is underscored by an enduring mix of A&D and aero-like end markets. Q3 revenue in those markets totaled 79% of our overall revenues with sales in those markets up 6% year-over-year.

A&D 和航空類終端市場的持久混合突顯了 ATI 本季的綜合利潤率增長了 100 個基點，比第一季增長了 300 個基點以上。這些市場的第三季營收總計占我們總營收的 79%，這些市場的銷售額年增 6%。

Let's turn to cash flow and manage working capital. Reduced sales and delayed inventory liquidations resulted in cash usage in the third quarter. Operating cash flow was $24 million, offset by $61 million in capital expenditures. This resulted in a $37 million use of cash when netted for free cash flow. Year-to-date, our free cash flow usage is $152 million, that is $50 million better than our year-to-date position at this time last year.

讓我們轉向現金流並管理營運資金。銷售減少和庫存清算延遲導致第三季現金使用量增加。營運現金流為 2,400 萬美元，被資本支出 6,100 萬美元所抵銷。扣除自由現金流後，這導致使用現金 3700 萬美元。年初至今，我們的自由現金流使用量為 1.52 億美元，比去年同期增加了 5,000 萬美元。

However, our managed working capital increased to 40% of sales from 35.5% in Q2. Delays in sales as we continue to melt and produce to meet customer requirements, along with accelerations and timing of capital expenditures contributed to the year-to-date use of cash. We continue to execute our balanced capital deployment strategy as we invest for growth, reduce debt and return capital to our shareholders.

然而，我們管理的營運資金佔銷售額的比例從第二季的 35.5% 增加到 40%。由於我們繼續熔化和生產以滿足客戶需求，銷售延遲，加上資本支出的加速和時間安排，導致了今年迄今為止的現金使用。我們持續執行平衡的資本配置策略，投資於成長、減少債務並向股東返還資本。

This quarter, we proactively redeemed our convertible notes, almost a year ahead of their maturity date. We retired nearly $300 million in outstanding debt and reduced 2024 interest expense by approximately $2 million. In parallel, our Board of Directors, based on our strong balance sheet and anticipated future cash generation authorized up to $700 million in future share repurchases.

本季度，我們主動贖回了可轉換票據，比到期日提早了近一年。我們償還了近 3 億美元的未償債務，並將 2024 年利息支出減少了約 200 萬美元。同時，我們的董事會根據我們強勁的資產負債表和預期的未來現金產生情況，授權未來進行高達 7 億美元的股票回購。

This quarter, we used the first $40 million of this authorization to begin reducing share count. We estimate that this authorization will be fully extended by early 2027, delivering significant value to our shareholders.

本季度，我們使用該授權的前 4000 萬美元開始減少股票數量。我們預計該授權將在 2027 年初全面延長，為我們的股東帶來巨大價值。

Now let's talk about our guidance to close out 2024. With growth expected in the fourth quarter and continued operational efficiencies, we expect earnings to build upon our Q3 results. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA is ranged from $181 million to $191 million, which equates to an earnings per share range of $0.56 to $0.62 for the quarter. We believe there are opportunities to exceed that range as we monitor how the industry responds to the Boeing work stoppage and we restore vacuum anneal capacity in AA&S.

現在讓我們來談談我們對 2024 年結束的指導。鑑於第四季的預期成長和持續的營運效率，我們預期收益將建立在第三季的業績基礎上。我們對調整後 EBITDA 的估計範圍為 1.81 億美元至 1.91 億美元，相當於本季每股收益為 0.56 美元至 0.62 美元。我們相信，隨著我們監控產業對波音停工的反應以及恢復 AA&S 的真空退火產能，有機會超越這個範圍。

Overall performance of the business in the fourth quarter will also be a key driver. We are also tracking non-operational opportunities that could increase our Q4 EBITDA by as much as $10 million to $15 million, but have not included that potential in our guidance.

第四季業務的整體業績也將是關鍵驅動因素。我們也正在追蹤可能使我們第四季 EBITDA 增加 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的非營運機會，但並未將這一潛力納入我們的指導中。

The range for fourth quarter equates to a full year adjusted EBITDA range of $700 million to $710 million, and an earnings per share range of $2.24 to $2.30. This represents a $30 million reduction to our previous midpoint of adjusted EBITDA with $10 million of the shortfall in Q3 and $20 million of adjusted expectations for Q4.

第四季的範圍相當於全年調整後 EBITDA 範圍為 7 億美元至 7.1 億美元，每股收益範圍為 2.24 美元至 2.30 美元。這意味著我們調整後 EBITDA 的中點比之前減少了 3000 萬美元，其中第三季度的缺口為 1000 萬美元，第四季度的調整後預期為 2000 萬美元。

While we still expect cash generation to be strong in the fourth quarter, we have lowered the high end and low ends of our free cash flow range by $40 million. This accounts for near-term risks in sales timing and inventory flow. This $40 million reduction includes $30 million of earnings timing. It also considers a $10 million increase in our CapEx guidance due to accelerating targeted investments to improve reliability and asset performance.

雖然我們仍然預計第四季度的現金產生將強勁，但我們已將自由現金流範圍的高端和低端降低了 4000 萬美元。這說明了銷售時間和庫存流動的近期風險。這 4000 萬美元的減少包括 3000 萬美元的盈利時間。由於加快有針對性的投資以提高可靠性和資產績效，它還考慮將我們的資本支出指導增加 1000 萬美元。

Free cash flow guidance now ranges from $220 million to $300 million. Q4 is expected to be a strong quarter for cash generation, consistent with our cash cycle. This reflects a meaningful reduction in managed working capital.

目前自由現金流指引範圍為 2.2 億美元至 3 億美元。預計第四季將是現金產生強勁的季度，與我們的現金週期一致。這反映出管理營運資本的大幅減少。

We expect to end the year with managed working capital in a lower 30% range. This is above our original year-end target of 30% or less. We continually look for opportunity to efficiently deploy capital. That includes divesting assets that create little or no operational value such as oil and gas rates.

我們預計到年底，管理營運資金將控制在 30% 以下的範圍內。這超出了我們原定的 30% 或更少的年終目標。我們不斷尋找有效部署資本的機會。這包括剝離幾乎不創造營運價值或不創造營運價值的資產，例如石油和天然氣費率。

In the fourth quarter, we anticipate monetizing as much as $40 million of non-core assets. We'll likely redeploy proceeds to support improved reliability, debottlenecking and growth as an element of our existing capital investment plan.

在第四季度，我們預計非核心資產的貨幣化將高達 4,000 萬美元。作為我們現有資本投資計畫的一部分，我們可能會重新部署收益來支援提高可靠性、消除瓶頸和成長。

As we react to the timing of the impacts to 2024, we are left with at least one more important question. What is this reduced year-end exit rate mean to our 2025 and 2027 targets. Consistent with past practice, we will not provide formal guidance for 2025 until we report fourth quarter earnings.

當我們對 2024 年影響的時間做出反應時，我們至少還有一個更重要的問題。年底退出率的降低對我們 2025 年和 2027 年的目標意味著什麼？與過去的做法一致，在報告第四季收益之前，我們不會提供 2025 年的正式指引。

Let me offer some initial insights now. It is reasonable to assume that 2025 performance, particularly in the first half of the year will reflect adjusting supply chains. Our view at this time suggests that we will be within the range of the original targets we issued last year, which was adjusted EBITDA between $800 million and $900 million.

現在讓我提供一些初步的見解。可以合理地假設，2025 年的表現，尤其是上半年的表現將反映出供應鏈的調整。我們目前的觀點表明，我們將處於去年發布的原始目標範圍內，調整後的 EBITDA 介於 8 億至 9 億美元之間。

Supply chain headwinds are expected to largely offset the impact of new sales commitments announced earlier this year. Our performance within this range will be affected by how quickly the Boeing work stoppage is resolved and the aerospace market ramp recovers.

供應鏈的不利因素預計將在很大程度上抵消今年稍早宣布的新銷售承諾的影響。我們在此範圍內的表現將受到波音停工問題解決和航空航太市場恢復速度的影響。

As for 2027, we remain confident. Despite a reduced second half 2024, and pressure heading into 2025, we believe the revised near term build rates and sustained demand for aircraft production support the range we suggested last year.

對於2027年，我們仍然充滿信心。儘管 2024 年下半年產量有所減少，並且進入 2025 年面臨壓力，但我們認為，修訂後的近期建造率和對飛機生產的持續需求支持我們去年建議的範圍。

ATI is still on track to be above $5 billion in sales, about $5.2 billion to be more specific and above $1 billion on adjusted EBITDA by 2027. For the near term, we are focused on supporting our customers, taking full advantage of operational opportunities to deliver our fourth quarter and full year 2024 guidance.

到 2027 年，ATI 的銷售額仍有望超過 50 億美元，更具體地說約為 52 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 超過 10 億美元。短期內，我們的重點是支援客戶，充分利用營運機會提供我們的第四季和 2024 年全年指引。

On that note, I will turn the call back over to Kim.

就此而言，我會將電話轉回給 Kim。

Thanks, Don. This has been a unique quarter for ATI. Uncertainties with our most critical customers and unexpected obstacles within our own operation, left us short of our goals and our commitments to you this quarter. We are taking action across the enterprise to deliver on those expectations now and every quarter going forward.

謝謝，唐。對於 ATI 來說，這是一個獨特的季度。我們最關鍵客戶的不確定性以及我們自身營運中的意外障礙，使我們未能實現本季的目標和對您的承諾。我們正在整個企業範圍內採取行動，以實現現在和未來每個季度的這些期望。

What gives me confidence in our future success, our end markets are strong and our products lead the industry. Our strategy is on point, delivering growth and margin expansion. And most of all, our team is focused on delivering value for our customers and shareholders.

我們的終端市場強勁，我們的產品處於行業領先地位，這讓我對我們未來的成功充滿信心。我們的策略是正確的，能夠實現成長和利潤擴張。最重要的是，我們的團隊專注於為客戶和股東創造價值。

With that, let's open the line for your questions.

那麼，讓我們打開您的問題熱線。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Richard Safran, Seaport Research Partners.

理查德·薩夫蘭，海港研究合作夥伴。

Kim, Don, morning. So I just wanted to follow up on the comments on you just made about the, about 2025. And I wanted to ask you a bit more about how you recover from these unplanned outages. For AA&S, is there a risk that the repair and restoration efforts impact your '25 results? And for both of these issues, is the revenue recoverable? Do you expect a bump in '25, assuming the strike ends in a reasonably short period of time and production resumes?

金、唐，早安。所以我只是想跟進一下您剛才關於 2025 年的評論。我想多問一下您如何從這些意外中斷中恢復過來。對於 AA&S，維修和復原工作是否有影響您 '25 結果的風險？對於這兩個問題，收入是否可以收回？假設罷工在相當短的時間內結束並恢復生產，您預計 25 年會成長嗎？

Thanks, Rich. Good morning. First of all, for our thoughts around 2025, we would expect that, number one, when it comes to, for example, the vac anneal outage that we experienced and will continue to experience in Q4, we would not expect that to create a headwind into 2025. When it comes to the titanium demand, I know it's not quite what you asked about, but just to touch on that.

謝謝，里奇。早安.首先，對於我們對 2025 年左右的想法，我們預計，第一，當涉及到我們經歷過並將在第四季度繼續經歷的真空退火中斷時，我們預計這不會產生不利影響到2025年。說到鈦的需求，我知道這不完全是你問的問題，但只是簡單談談。

When we think about the work stoppage that is a key driver in that titanium demand disruption, the Boeing work stoppage we have anticipated will be with us through the end of this year and will be resolved in either late this quarter or early 2025. And that the industry and the related demand will get back on track.

當我們考慮停工是鈦需求中斷的關鍵驅動因素時，我們預計波音停工將持續到今年年底，並將在本季末或 2025 年初解決。該行業和相關需求將重回正軌。

In terms of the ability to recover what we saw as missed revenue in Q3 and anticipate in Q4, it would be nice to believe that but I would, we are not increasing our 2025 targets under that assumption.

就恢復我們認為第三季錯過的營收和第四季預期的能力而言，相信這一點是很好的，但我願意，在這種假設下，我們不會提高 2025 年的目標。

Okay. Thanks for the interest. Okay. And just quick here. I think we're going to agree that you're more dependent on the engine manufacturers and the airframers. I just want to know if you could maybe go into a bit about what GE roles and Pratt are saying that's a bit different from the airframers, Boeing and Airbus, trying to get what's embedded in your outlook now relative and the differences between what you're getting from the engine and airframe manufacturers.

好的。感謝您的關注。好的。就快點吧。我想我們會同意你更依賴引擎製造商和機身製造商。我只是想知道你是否可以談談通用電氣的角色和普拉特所說的與飛機製造商波音和空中巴士有點不同，試圖了解你現在相對的前景中包含的內容以及你的角色之間的差異來自發動機和機身製造商。

Sure, Rich. I can. I'll give you some color here, and if Don wants to jump in with any numbers that help give you more clarity. From an engine standpoint, everyone is, I'm sorry, everyone is continuing to assume that Boeing is going to get this work stoppage settled sometime hopefully and by the end of this quarter. So from an engine demand standpoint, they've also stated that they're making sure that they're protecting the supply chain.

當然，里奇。我可以。我會在這裡給你一些顏色，如果唐想加入任何數字來幫助你更清楚地了解。從引擎的角度來看，我很抱歉，每個人都繼續認為波音公司將有望在本季末之前解決停工問題。因此，從引擎需求的角度來看，他們也表示他們正在確保保護供應鏈。

So we're seeing steady orders. We're not seeing big drop-offs, I'd say, there was some aligning that happened kind of mid-quarter, end of August time frame with some of the build rates that weren't lining up exactly or with the call down that the other what Airbus did as well.

所以我們看到穩定的訂單。我想說，我們沒有看到大幅下降，在季度中期、8 月底的時間框架內發生了一些調整，其中一些建設率並不完全一致或與電話下調一致空中客車公司也這樣做了。

So we saw some, I'd say, aligning to that earlier in the quarter but it's been steady. They're continuing to buy. And let me be clear, where our sales are going to continue to grow with jet engine going forward, assuming the labor dispute, as Don just said, gets resolved end of this quarter, early next quarter. There is strong MRO, and that's continuing across all of the OEMs.

所以我想說，我們看到一些與本季早些時候的情況一致，但一直很穩定。他們還在繼續購買。讓我明確一點，假設勞資糾紛（正如唐剛才所說）在本季度末、下個季度初得到解決，我們的銷售額將隨著噴射發動機的發展而繼續增長。擁有強大的 MRO，並且所有 OEM 都在繼續這樣做。

They're each addressing their individual design challenges, upgrades and engines that are driving shop visits. But we're also seeing that we're continuing to gain positions with Pratt in support of the GTF. We did have a milestone in September where we hit 2x the shipments, double the shipments that we've done in the first half year run rate in September. And then we're going to be working towards a meaningful increase towards the back end of this quarter, targeting something in the 15% to 20% increase going into next year.

他們每個人都在解決各自的設計挑戰、升級和推動商店訪問的引擎。但我們也看到我們繼續獲得 Pratt 的支持，以支持 GTF。我們在 9 月確實實現了一個里程碑，我們的出貨量達到了 2 倍，是我們在 9 月上半年運行率中實現的出貨量的兩倍。然後我們將努力在本季末實現有意義的成長，目標是明年成長 15% 到 20%。

So all of that lines up to strong demand growth that we're expecting and their continued support and pull both for the MRO as well as maybe a little bit of shifting to support the, on the LEAP engines, the 1A and continue to support that growth that's going to be continuing.

因此，所有這些都符合我們預期的強勁需求成長，以及他們對 MRO 的持續支援和拉動，以及可能進行一點轉變以支援 LEAP 引擎、1A 並繼續支援這一點成長將持續下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Andre Madris, BTIG.

安德烈·馬德里斯，BTIG。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess if we look into the near term, you mentioned pretty extensively the impact of MRO demand. Do you think though that broadly, this is enough to offset the pressure on airframe. And could you maybe just talk broad strokes about the margin differential between those two end markets?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。我想如果我們展望近期，您會相當廣泛地提到 MRO 需求的影響。您認為從廣義上講，這足以抵消機身上的壓力嗎？您能否大致談談這兩個終端市場之間的利潤差異？

As we look at it, what we've seen most of the engine OEMs have shared in their public comments, they're running much higher MRO. So anywhere from 40% to one of the OEMs even shared 60% of their current demand is coming from the MRO standpoint. So that's continuing. I would say as we look at their support and how they're thinking about the build rates, they're continuing to build to make sure that they can keep up once the work stoppage is over, Boeing is back on track.

正如我們所看到的，我們看到大多數引擎原始設備製造商在公開評論中都分享了這一點，他們正在運行更高的 MRO。因此，從 40% 到其中一個 OEM 廠商甚至 60% 的當前需求都來自 MRO 的角度。所以這還在繼續。我想說，當我們看到他們的支持以及他們對建造速度的看法時，他們正在繼續建造，以確保停工結束後他們能夠跟上，波音又回到正軌。

They want to make sure that they're not impeding that growth on either Boeing or Airbus side. To the point where some of them have shared, they're protecting the supply chain and continuing to buy at level stable demand levels.

他們希望確保不會阻礙波音或空中巴士的成長。他們中的一些人表示，他們正在保護供應鏈並繼續以穩定的需求水準進行購買。

So I would have to say, if we look forward, there have to be, I think, a different assumption around the work stoppage that may have them revisit that. But today, they're pretty assuring us that they're going to continue along this path. As far as margins, that's a little bit harder to define.

所以我必須說，如果我們展望未來，我認為圍繞停工必須有一個不同的假設，這可能會讓他們重新審視這一點。但今天，他們向我們保證他們將繼續沿著這條道路走下去。就利潤率而言，定義有點困難。

Airframe, yes, goes to the two big air OEMs but it also goes through distribution. It goes through machine shops. There's multiple channels and multiple products that go into that. I'd say our position on engines is more accretive to our business than airframe but they're both very positive from a margin standpoint.

是的，機身供應給兩大航空原始設備製造商，但也經過分銷。它經過機械車間。有多種管道和多種產品涉及其中。我想說，我們在引擎上的地位比機身上的地位對我們的業務更具增值作用，但從利潤的角度來看，它們都非常積極。

Don, do you want to share something?

唐，你想分享一些東西嗎？

Yes. If you don't mind, I think it would be, what I'll add is, if you think about the profile of our revenue, so it was about 60%, 60% to 65% of our revenue is aerospace and defense. And as you unpack that, what you see is jet engine is about 2x what our airframe revenues are in a given period. So while, yes, we would expect jet engine would be a positive offset to headwinds in the airframe side.

是的。如果你不介意的話，我想，我要補充的是，如果你考慮我們的收入狀況，我們的收入中大約 60%、60% 到 65% 是航空航太和國防領域。當你打開它時，你會看到噴射引擎在特定時期內的收入大約是我們機身收入的兩倍。因此，是的，我們預計噴射引擎將積極抵消機身側的逆風。

We don't see it as a one-for-one offset or a significant tailwind that would fully overcome an airframe, a sustained airframe slowdown like we would say has happened at the end of Q3, and we'll probably be with us through in Q4. But the good news is we do have offsets that certainly dampen the effect of it.

我們不認為這是一對一的抵消或完全克服機身的重大順風，機身持續放緩，就像我們所說的在第三季度末發生的那樣，我們可能會與我們一起度過在第第四季。但好消息是我們確實有抵消措施，這肯定會削弱它的影響。

Another offset area that we have is defense. Defense has been and we expect will continue to be a good area of growth for us for a sustained period of time. Now that represents about 10% of our revenues and if you compare that to our airframe, it's more than half the airframe.

我們的另一個抵消領域是防守。國防一直是而且我們預計將在一段時間內繼續成為我們良好的成長領域。現在，這約占我們收入的 10%，如果將其與我們的機身進行比較，就會發現它超過了機身的一半。

So again, it's a separate set of drivers around that demand and those revenues, that's a very good bucket of business for us, but it will help to offset not necessarily fully offset the effect of airframe headwinds like we saw this quarter and anticipate seeing next quarter.

So again, it's a separate set of drivers around that demand and those revenues, that's a very good bucket of business for us, but it will help to offset not necessarily fully offset the effect of airframe headwinds like we saw this quarter and anticipate seeing next四分之一.

Thank you. I appreciate the color there. And if I could throw in one more. I mean, you guys talked extensively about how titanium shipments being pushed out, on the airframe side was more due to obviously demand signal shifting. But on the defense side, it seems like it was more operationally driven. I mean just to clarify, sorry if I missed this but could you explain if that's the case, if it was more operational challenges?

謝謝。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。如果我能再加一個的話。我的意思是，你們廣泛討論了機身方面的鈦出貨量如何被推遲，這更多是由於明顯的需求信號變化。但在防守方面，似乎更多是由操作驅動的。我的意思只是為了澄清，抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但您能否解釋一下，如果是這樣的話，如果是更多的營運挑戰？

No, Andre. On the defense side, what I would say is it's more timing where the orders and frankly, there is a bottleneck in the supply chain at Aberdeen with their ballistic testing, which is impacting and slowing shipments on some of that armor plate that we provide. So we're working with the Army to get that resolved and look at their testing capability or capacity.

不，安德烈。在國防方面，我想說的是，訂單的時機更多，坦白說，阿伯丁的彈道測試供應鏈存在瓶頸，這影響並減緩了我們提供的一些裝甲板的發貨。因此，我們正在與陸軍合作解決這個問題，並研究他們的測試能力。

But I'd say we're at the AUSA show, the Army show just at the beginning of the month here. And there's quite a bit of activity, both domestically and through for military sales around the rebuilding of the ground defense is over in Europe. And so there is a lot of upside opportunity. And as Don said, there is opportunities for us to offset any softness that we see from an airframe standpoint with our titanium.

但我想說我們正在參加 AUSA 展會，本月初在這裡舉行的陸軍展會。在歐洲，圍繞地面防禦重建的國內和軍售活動都已經結束。因此，存在著許多上升機會。正如唐所說，我們有機會用鈦合金來抵消從機身角度看到的任何柔軟性。

Excellent. Thank you so much.

出色的。太感謝了。

Sure.

當然。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. Thank you.

早安.謝謝。

Good morning, David.

早安，大衛。

I wanted to ask about maybe helping us walk to the Q4 EBITDA guidance. You're calling for relatively flat EBITDA sequentially in Q4. I would think the supply chain impacts would be worse. You're talking about, it sounds like your assumption is the Boeing strike goes on through the end of the quarter. It sounds like at least on the AA&S side, you're still going to have this operational issue there. So just, Don, if you could help us walk from Q3 to Q4 in terms of the EBITDA forecast.

我想詢問是否可以幫助我們實現第四季度 EBITDA 指導。您要求第四季度的 EBITDA 相對持平。我認為供應鏈的影響會更嚴重。你說的是，聽起來你的假設是波音罷工會持續到本季結束。聽起來至少在 AA&S 方面，您仍然會遇到這個操作問題。所以，Don，如果你能幫助我們從 EBITDA 預測方面從第三季走到第四季。

Sure. I'll try to basket this in a way that I'm not dragging you through minutia. But the way to think about it is, first of all, we ended the quarter with about $186 million of EBITDA in Q3 that included almost $4 million of gain related to an oil and gas sale that I don't expect, is not expected in our Q4 guidance.

當然。我會盡力以一種不會讓你經歷細節的方式來概括這個問題。但思考這個問題的方法是，首先，我們第三季度的 EBITDA 約為 1.86 億美元，其中包括與石油和天然氣銷售相關的近 400 萬美元收益，我預計，今年也不會出現這種情況。的第四季指引。

Then when you take a step back and you think about the things that we've shared, some of those things are going to be with us in Q4 to your point, things like that back and yield outage that is going through a repair process that will probably last the bulk of Q4. And then we're not expecting a magical solution to the titanium demand reduction that we saw.

然後，當您退後一步並思考我們所分享的事情時，其中一些事情將在第四季度與我們一起實現您的觀點，例如後退和正在經歷修復過程的產量中斷之類的事情可能會持續第第四季的大部分時間。然後，我們並不指望有一個神奇的解決方案來解決我們所看到的鈦需求減少問題。

So those will be with us. But there were some things that were in Q3 that shouldn't repeat. And we had some headwinds around, for example, shipping during the hurricane. No surprise when you're in a middle of a hurricane, it's kind of tough to load trucks and get moving. So, but good news is we didn't forecast a hurricane in Q4. We think that's probably a pretty good assumption. So that should not repeat.

所以那些會和我們在一起。但第三季的一些事情不應該重複。我們也遇到了一些阻力，例如颶風期間的運輸。毫不奇怪，當您身處颶風之中時，裝載卡車並移動是很困難的。所以，但好消息是我們沒有預測第四季會有颶風。我們認為這可能是個很好的假設。所以這不應該重複。

Then we had some, just some other anomalies. We talked a bit about the VAM outage, right? Well that VAM outage is, it was impactful to last quarter, we don't expect it to be impactful for this quarter. So that impact is behind us. So you go through those pluses and minuses, the things that were hits in Q4, Q3 rather, that we don't expect to repeat in Q4.

然後我們發現了一些，只是一些其他的異常情況。我們討論過 VAM 中斷的問題，對嗎？VAM 中斷對上個季度產生了影響，我們預計不會對本季產生影響。所以這種影響已經過去了。因此，您會經歷這些優點和缺點，即第四季、第三季受到打擊的事情，我們預計不會在第四季重複。

Think of them in terms of, they're probably a total of about $10 million of good guy. And if you back into the revenues, it's about $30 million of revenue that, bad guys in Q3 that won't repeat in Q4. And then I would reduce that $10 million of EBITDA by the non-repeated good guys like the oil and gas gain sale, for example. So what you really get to is, hey, there's about $5 million of bad guys in Q3, that shouldn't be there in Q4.

想想他們，他們可能是總共價值1000萬美元左右的好人。如果你回到收入上來，你會發現，第三季的壞人不會在第四季重演，大約有 3000 萬美元的收入。然後，我會透過石油和天然氣收益銷售等不重複的好東西來減少 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA。所以你真正想說的是，嘿，第三季有大約 500 萬美元的壞人，這不應該出現在第四季。

So what that indicates is when you look at our current guide for Q4 EBITDA, it's $181 million to $191 million. And so midpoint, $186 million, looks like a kind of a flattish Q3 to Q4. Don just explained, it should be better in Q4 by a few million dollars. Well, one thing that you already raised is that, hey, we're going to have a full quarter effect of the titanium and the vac anneal. That will be something we're dealing with.

因此，這表明當您查看我們當前的第四季度 EBITDA 指南時，您會發現它為 1.81 億美元至 1.91 億美元。因此，中間值 1.86 億美元看起來像是第三季到第四季持平的情況。唐剛剛解釋說，第四季應該會好一些幾百萬美元。好吧，您已經提出的一件事是，嘿，我們將對鈦和真空退火產生完整的四分之一效應。這將是我們正在處理的事情。

And then I will be quite frank, when you look at our Q4 guidance, we do not plan on missing. And so as we looked at the risks that we see in Q4, we tried to be very, very thoughtful on how that affected our guidance. You can probably say fairly that we view the Q4 as conservative, but that would probably be with all the volatility and change that's going on in the market at the moment with the stoppages and all that good stuff, it felt like a prudent thing to do. So that's in the math as well.

然後我會非常坦率地講，當您查看我們的第四季度指導時，我們不打算錯過。因此，當我們研究第四季度看到的風險時，我們試圖非常非常仔細地考慮這如何影響我們的指導。你可以公平地說，我們認為第四季度是保守的，但這可能是因為目前市場上正在發生的所有波動和變化，以及停工和所有這些好東西，這感覺是一件謹慎的事情。這也在數學中。

Does that help, David?

這有幫助嗎，大衛？

Yes. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, I know sometimes it's hard for you guys to know exactly at what rates you're shipping at. But any help to kind of level set up particularly on the titanium side, on the airframe side, where your ship maybe take the major platforms, where you've been shipping and where you're shipping right now? What rates?

是的。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，我知道有時你們很難確切地知道你們的運費是多少。但是，對於特別是在鈦金屬側、機身側、您的船可能佔據主要平台、您一直在運輸的地方以及現在正在運輸的地方的水平設置有什麼幫助嗎？什麼費率？

So David, as I think about titanium, so the effects that we talked about coming from the supply chain reacting. Some of it before even the strike began as they were hearing the rhetoric, that has mainly subsided. I think it's stabilized from a shipping rate.

大衛，正如我對鈦的看法，我們談到的影響來自於供應鏈的反應。其中一些甚至在罷工開始之前就已經發生了，因為他們聽到了言論，現在已經基本平息了。我認為運費已經穩定下來。

And to be honest, we've seen some spot transactional business, I think as some have come back in and said, we do need this product or some titanium or we missed this demand signal that we've got put back into the order book. But I do anticipate from the titanium side that we'll see level shipments that as we go into the fourth quarter, flat to maybe slightly up on the titanium side. Hopefully, does that answer your question?

說實話，我們已經看到了一些現貨交易業務，我認為正如有些人回來說，我們確實需要這種產品或一些鈦，或者我們錯過了我們已經重新放入訂單簿的需求信號。但我確實預計，從鈦方面來看，進入第四季後，我們將看到鈦方面的出貨量持平甚至略有上升。希望這能回答您的問題嗎？

Yes. I mean I was just looking at, I don't know if you can boil it down to kind of where you're shipping, for example, on the MAX or A320 what kind of rates you, where you think you are today relative to maybe where you were a quarter or two ago or what you were expecting Q3, Q4 to look like and where it actually is?

是的。我的意思是，我只是在考慮，我不知道你是否可以將其歸結為你要運送的地點，例如，在 MAX 或 A320 上，你的費率是多少，你認為你今天相對於也許你一兩個季度前在哪裡，或者你期望第三季、第四季是什麼樣子，而它實際上在哪裡？

So if I think about those programs, on the Airbus side, I do think those rates have continued. There are a few, I think, suppliers in their supply chain that they were adjusting their build rates to. We did talk with them. We aren't seeing any impacts in this year of that, I would call that almost smoothing for them. They are continuing to build titanium supply to be ready to move away from VSMPO as we go into next year. And so we've got pretty close alignment from that standpoint.

因此，如果我考慮一下空中巴士方面的這些計劃，我確實認為這些利率會繼續下去。我認為，他們的供應鏈中有一些供應商正在調整他們的建造率。我們確實與他們交談過。今年我們沒有看到任何影響，我認為這對他們來說幾乎是平滑的。他們正在繼續建立鈦供應，準備在明年擺脫 VSMPO。因此，從這個角度來看，我們的觀點非常一致。

On the LEAP side, as I mentioned, we have seen some shifting over to the 1A versus the 1B. Those parts are similar, but they're not exactly the same. So again, that whole idea of bottlenecks and material getting caught up as they shifted and said, okay, we want more of these 1A parts, which might have been sixth or seventh in line, and we kind of had to push one and two out. And so that created some bottlenecks and inefficiencies.

在 LEAP 方面，正如我所提到的，我們已經看到一些人轉向 1A，而不是 1B。這些部分相似，但並不完全相同。再說一次，瓶頸和材料的整個想法在它們轉移時被捕獲，並說，好吧，我們想要更多這些 1A 部件，它們可能排在第六或第七，我們不得不推出一個和兩個。因此，這造成了一些瓶頸和低效率。

But from an overall shipment standpoint, working with the engine OEMs, it's been fairly stable. And I anticipate that in our guidance going through Q4, now as I look to 2025, that's where we're spending some time with our assumption that the work stoppage ends.

但從整體出貨量的角度來看，與引擎原始設備製造商的合作，它相當穩定。我預計，在我們第四季的指導中，現在當我展望 2025 年時，我們會花一些時間假設停工結束。

How long does it take Boeing to bring their folks back, get them requalified and certified and then get back to the rates they were at in August. We would anticipate that probably takes a couple of months to get that work done and get back up to that rate.

波音需要多長時間才能讓他們的員工回來，讓他們重新獲得資格和認證，然後恢復到八月的水平。我們預計可能需要幾個月的時間才能完成這項工作並恢復到原來的速度。

But there could be some opportunities because I do think some of the supply chain with the distribution or the machine shops reacted very aggressively as their concern around cash flow and being stuck with inventory at the end of the year came up. So I do think that as they come back to work, we could see some emergent opportunities that come from that.

但可能會有一些機會，因為我確實認為一些供應鏈的分銷或機械車間反應非常積極，因為他們對現金流和年底庫存的擔憂出現了。所以我確實認為，當他們重返工作崗位時，我們可以看到一些隨之而來的新機會。

Okay, thanks very much for the color.

好的，非常感謝你的顏色。

Sure.

當然。

Philip Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

菲利普‧吉布斯 (Philip Gibbs)，KeyBanc 資本市場公司

Good morning. Question in general about the backlog. I think you mentioned as an enterprise, it was fairly stable. But any texture you could provide between your segments in terms of direction of backlog after Q2 and then relative to Q2? And then also you had, Kim, in your prepared remarks, you had mentioned some pushouts, some cancellations. Where have you seen that, I guess, in the specific products?

早安.關於積壓的一般問題。我想你提到作為一個企業，它是相當穩定的。但是，您可以在第二季度之後以及相對於第二季度的積壓方向方面在各個細分市場之間提供任何紋理嗎？然後，金，你在準備好的發言中提到了一些延遲和取消。我想您在具體產品中在哪裡看到這一點？

So from a backlog standpoint, as you said, that's been fairly stable around $4 billion. As I'm looking at about three quarters of that, is in the HPMC segment, and the other one quarter is in the AA&S segment. And that, again, as you said, pretty stable. We're continuing to see strong, steady demand across those two. As far as, and I think you asked about pushouts, where do we see that and what products?

因此，從積壓的角度來看，正如您所說，這一數字相當穩定在 40 億美元左右。據我觀察，其中大約四分之三屬於 HPMC 領域，另外四分之一屬於 AA&S 領域。正如你所說，這再次非常穩定。我們繼續看到這兩者的需求強勁、穩定。至於，我想你問過關於推出的問題，我們在哪裡看到它以及什麼產品？

Yes, you had mentioned some pushouts. And I think you had also mentioned some cancellations as well. And so I'm curious where those fell.

是的，您提到了一些推出。我想你也提到了一些取消。所以我很好奇那些東西掉到哪裡去了。

So those were mainly related to the airframe titanium, probably took the biggest hit as we look across the portfolio. As I said, the engine folks, one, they're still buying very steadily. They're planning on Boeing getting back to work and getting back to rate. And obviously, we've got Airbus that's continuing to produce and are building to their stated build rates as well. So we did see it with some titanium.

因此，這些主要與機身鈦合金有關，當我們縱觀整個產品組合時，可能受到的打擊最大。正如我所說，發動機人員，他們仍然非常穩定地購買。他們計劃讓波音公司恢復工作並恢復正常運作。顯然，我們的空中巴士公司正在繼續生產並按照其規定的建造速度進行建造。所以我們確實看到了一些鈦合金。

A lot of it was canceling or swapping, saying, okay, we don't need titanium for that product, we'd like to pull this product in. And so there was a lot, I'd say there is a lot of noise like that, that came in or they said, let's switch orders around and switch the timing of those orders. So those pushouts that went out.

很多都是取消或交換，說，好吧，我們的產品不需要鈦，我們想把這個產品拉進來。所以有很多，我想說有很多這樣的噪音，或者他們說，讓我們改變訂單並改變這些訂單的時間。所以那些被淘汰的人。

There were some, from a cancellation standpoint, there were some mainly in the distribution space. A little bit in the machine shop, but mostly distribution as they are looking at buying speculatively either when they think demand is going to rise or they think demand is going to fall. And the whole supply chain, everyone has been buying to continue to make sure they stay ahead of the ramp.

從取消的角度來看，有一些主要是在分銷領域。在機械車間有一點，但主要是分銷，因為當他們認為需求將會上升或認為需求將會下降時，他們會考慮進行投機性購買。在整個供應鏈中，每個人都在購買，以繼續確保他們保持領先地位。

One particular customer, I can share, give you a little bit more color around landing gear. I think we're running well ahead of what the build rates were, again to make sure that they were not the slowest part of that supply chain. And with some of these slowdowns, said, okay, look, we're over-inventoried. We need to correct that inventory level, and we're pushing this into 2025.

我可以分享一位特別的客戶，他為起落架提供了更多的色彩。我認為我們的運行速度遠遠領先於建置速度，再次確保它們不是供應鏈中最慢的部分。隨著其中一些經濟放緩，好吧，看，我們的庫存過剩了。我們需要糾正庫存水平，並將其推遲到 2025 年。

Thank you, Kim. And then Don, just a question for clarification, I think you mentioned that there's going to be about $40 million of divestiture related inflows in Q4. Is that within your free cash flow framework? Or is that outside your free cash flow framework?

謝謝你，金。Don，我想問一個需要澄清的問題，我想您提到第四季將有約 4000 萬美元的資產剝離相關資金流入。這在你的自由現金流框架內嗎？或者這超出了您的自由現金流框架？

Yes, it is within. It's part of how we've historically defined that calculation. So we include the cash proceeds from discrete asset sales or just from asset sales in general. The logic there is, if you're including your CapEx as an element to your free cash flow, if you turn around and sell one of those assets, wouldn't you include that proceed. So short answer is yes.

是的，它就在裡面。這是我們歷史上定義該計算方式的一部分。因此，我們包括離散資產銷售或一般資產銷售的現金收益。邏輯是，如果您將資本支出作為自由現金流的要素，如果您轉身並出售其中一項資產，您是否不會將這筆收益納入。所以簡短的回答是肯定的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

蒂姆納坦納斯，沃爾夫研究。

Yes, hey, good morning, Don and Kim. I wanted to circle back, first off, just quickly on the $40 million that divestiture. I assume those are lower-margin businesses that doesn't change your outlook for your targets for 2025 and beyond.

是的，嘿，早上好，唐和金。我想先快速回顧一下 4000 萬美元的資產剝離。我認為這些都是利潤率較低的業務，不會改變您對 2025 年及以後目標的展望。

You are 100% correct. Those are non-core assets. They're, sometimes they're discrete assets, which there's little to no margin attached like the oil and gas rights. Sometimes they're non-core operations. They would be immaterial from a top line standpoint. They would almost always be dilutive from a margin standpoint. So we unlock that and improves the metrics and gets us cash to redeploy.

你是100%正確的。這些都是非核心資產。有時它們是離散資產，幾乎沒有像石油和天然氣權利那樣附加保證金。有時它們是非核心業務。從頂線的角度來看，它們並不重要。從利潤的角度來看，它們幾乎總是會被稀釋。因此，我們解鎖並改進指標，並獲得現金進行重新部署。

I think the one thing I'd add to that is in this case with these assets that we will be able to continue to supply material to the buyer. So we will get the benefit of that material supply, while aligning that business with another owner who this is their strategic focus and there, we anticipate they're going to invest and they're going to grow that business. So as Don said, it's not accretive but I think it does provide us an opportunity to continue to support it with growth potential.

我認為我要補充的一件事是，在這種情況下，有了這些資產，我們將能夠繼續向買方提供材料。因此，我們將受益於材料供應，同時將該業務與另一個所有者保持一致，這是他們的戰略重點，我們預計他們將進行投資並發展該業務。正如唐所說，它不會帶來增值，但我認為它確實為我們提供了繼續支持其成長潛力的機會。

Okay. Got it. Thanks. I wanted to follow up on the things that you said in the past on the Q3 call, you said some of the lost volumes to the A&D segment could be sold into other segments and talk about industrial. So maybe if you could give us an update on kind of how the industrial markets are working?

好的。知道了。謝謝。我想跟進您過去在第三季電話會議上所說的事情，您說 A&D 部門損失的一些銷售可以出售給其他部門並談論工業。那麼，您是否可以向我們介紹一下工業市場如何運作的最新情況？

And then Similarly, in the past, you've talked about, and this maybe goes back too far, but Boeing, you had min-MAX contact, so they would keep taking the minimum even when they didn't need it, like when they were on work stoppages in the past, and that ultimately led to like prolonged periods of low margin and lighter volumes. So I'm just wondering, is there a risk that, that repeats itself. So that's, I guess, that's two questions. Thanks.

然後類似地，在過去，你談過，這可能追溯到太遠了，但是波音公司，你有最小-最大接觸，所以他們會繼續採取最低限度，即使他們不需要它，就像當他們過去曾處於停工狀態，最終導致了長期的低利潤和銷售減少。所以我只是想知道，是否有重複發生的風險。我想這是兩個問題。謝謝。

Yes. So I'll start with the industrial question. So we are not heavy in automotive or housing. So those aren't really markets that we have that are very impactful. We have a small part of our business. I think Don shared that in the past, 10% to 15%, mainly in the AA&S segment. I'd say as I look across our other strategic segments, the Aero like, you'll see in our results that medical and electrical, specialty electrical took a step down.

是的。我將從工業問題開始。所以我們在汽車或住房方面的比重並不大。因此，這些並不是我們真正有影響力的市場。我們的業務只佔一小部分。我認為 Don 過去分享過這一點，10% 到 15%，主要是在 AA&S 領域。我想說，當我審視我們的其他策略性細分市場（例如航空領域）時，您會在我們的結果中看到醫療和電氣、特種電氣領域有所下降。

Those are really related to order timing, inventory realignment, not really due to underlying core demand. We're still seeing very strong demand in specialty energy, as well as medical with elective surgeries are starting to catch up. I heard there's a shortage of sailing. I think some of those things are creating a little choppiness in that medical market. But we are seeing those, again, those aero-like markets are still very strong demand. And as you're saying, give us an opportunity to sell our products into those when we see any openings.

這些實際上與訂單時間、庫存調整有關，而不是真正與潛在的核心需求有關。我們仍然看到對專業能源的需求非常強勁，選擇性手術的醫療也開始迎頭趕上。聽說現在船運緊缺。我認為其中一些因素正在導致醫療市場出現一些波動。但我們再次看到，那些航空類市場的需求仍然非常強勁。正如您所說，當我們看到任何空缺時，給我們一個機會向那些人出售我們的產品。

On Boeing contract, so those contracts, like most of our other aerospace contracts were renegotiated during the pandemic. And so we are currently at a sheer position now with them, with min, maxes. As I've shared before, all of our contracts have MAXs one because they contemplate what is their total capacity to make sure we can continue to support these customers. But then it also when demand starts to ramp quickly, it does give us an opportunity to participate on the transactional side as their demand starts to exceed what that contract is.

在波音合約上，這些合約就像我們大多數其他航空航太合約一樣，在大流行期間重新談判。因此，我們目前與他們處於絕對的位置，有最小、最大。正如我之前所分享的，我們所有的合約都有 MAX 合同，因為他們會考慮總容量是多少，以確保我們能夠繼續為這些客戶提供支援。但當需求開始迅速增加時，它確實給了我們參與交易方面的機會，因為他們的需求開始超過合約的範圍。

So as we're thinking about this, we are working closely. With Boeing, unfortunately, they've had just a series of setbacks here coming out of the pandemic. And so they were starting to work towards that build rate to rate 38 to talk with the FAA to kind of move past that.

因此，當我們考慮這個問題時，我們正在密切合作。不幸的是，波音公司在疫情中遭遇了一系列挫折。因此，他們開始努力將建造率提高到 38，並與 FAA 進行談判以超越這一目標。

But they had not been up to full, I'd say, full power from a build rate standpoint since the MAX crashes, frankly. So a lot of our growth, if you look at our portfolio, we shared this in the past, we have a very diverse customer base now. So we're supporting both of the airframes and all of the engine programs in a meaningful way.

但坦白說，自從 MAX 崩潰以來，從建造速度的角度來看，他們還沒有達到全部的能力。因此，如果你看看我們的產品組合，我們的成長很大，我們過去分享過這一點，現在我們擁有非常多樣化的客戶群。因此，我們以有意義的方式支持機身和所有引擎項目。

And so unfortunately, Boeing continues to have some issues but we anticipate they're going to get to build rate, but the rest of the industry is very robust, and trying to meet the airlines demands and their needs for new planes. And before the new planes get there to keep those engines in the air.

不幸的是，波音公司仍然存在一些問題，但我們預計他們將達到建造速度，但該行業的其他公司非常強勁，並試圖滿足航空公司的需求及其對新飛機的需求。在新飛機到達那裡之前，讓這些引擎保持在空中。

So that's how we're managing, that's how we're thinking about those markets and the dynamics that we see at least through the end of this year and into the first quarter, first half of next year as Boeing gets back to that August rate.

這就是我們的管理方式，這就是我們對這些市場的思考方式，以及我們至少在今年年底、第一季、明年上半年看到的動態，因為波音公司將恢復到 8 月的水平。

Bob, Don, thank you.

鮑伯、唐，謝謝你們。

Yes. One thing I would add, just to go back to, I think part of the question you asked about industrial demand. We've talked about the anticipation that industrial demand would be coming back throughout this year, and it hasn't returned like we expected it would. And in this particular quarter, we did see industrial sales down sequentially. And I think that was one of the things you were looking for, Timna.

是的。我想補充一件事，回到我認為你提出的工業需求的問題的一部分。我們已經談到了工業需求將在今年恢復的預期，但它並沒有像我們預期的那樣恢復。在這個特定的季度，我們確實看到工業銷售環比下降。我認為這就是你正在尋找的東西之一，蒂姆納。

And as you look at, to kind of echo some of the things that Kim had said, where we saw some headwinds from an industrial sales standpoint quarter-over-quarter were in areas like automotive, construction and mining as well as our food and equipment materials that we provide.

正如你所看到的，有點呼應金所說的一些事情，從工業銷售的角度來看，我們看到汽車、建築和採礦以及食品和設備等領域出現了一些逆風我們提供的材料。

So we're not anticipating, when you think about our Q4 guidance, we're not anticipating that those industrial sales are going to come roaring back in Q4. We certainly would expect as we look out to 2025, a more normalized sales level. But this year, that would be, I would say, a sales group that's generally disappointed us from a sales level

因此，當您考慮我們的第四季指引時，我們並不預期這些工業銷售將在第四季大幅回升。展望 2025 年，我們當然期望銷售水準更加正常化。但今年，我想說，這個銷售團隊的銷售水準普遍令我們失望

Thanks, Kim.

謝謝，金。

Thanks, Timna.

謝謝，蒂姆納。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Hi. Thanks very much and good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask on the airframe side and some of the challenges you're seeing there generally think of that end market as being more tied to wide-body production. And on the Boeing side, that's more 787, which is not really subject to the work stoppage in quite the same way.

你好。非常感謝，大家早安。我想問機身方面的問題，您所看到的一些挑戰通常認為終端市場與寬體生產更相關。在波音方面，更多的是 787，它並沒有以完全相同的方式真正受到停工的影響。

But wondering if you're seeing unevenness there in terms of demand just because of the, some of the delays that they've had in being able to deliver aircraft due to feed certification, other issues. And then on the 777X also, how you think about the push out there affecting the growth trajectory that you guys have expected over the next couple of years?

但想知道您是否看到需求不平衡只是因為由於飼料認證或其他問題而導致飛機交付延遲。然後，對於 777X，您如何看待 777X 的推出會影響你們預計的未來幾年的成長軌跡？

Yes, Seth. So that's an interesting question. As we're looking at it, like you said, there's a lot going on in the Boeing portfolio. So on the 787, to your point, we do see growth opportunities. So that is a bright spot as we're looking at 2025, talking with Boeing. They are moving forward. They're making planes. And those wide-body planes use, we've shared the statistic before about 5 times the titanium as the single aisle.

是的，賽斯。這是一個有趣的問題。正如您所說，正如我們正在研究的那樣，波音公司的投資組合中發生了很多事情。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們確實在 787 上看到了成長機會。因此，當我們展望 2025 年並與波音公司交談時，這是一個亮點。他們正在前進。他們正在製造飛機。而那些寬體飛機使用的鈦合金，我們之前分享過的統計量大約是單通道的5倍。

So we are seeing increased demand coming from Boeing for that aircraft, and they've already said upped their forecast with us for next year. So we anticipate seeing that growth. And as they get those planes and that production ramped up, seeing that continue to grow through 2025.

因此，我們看到波音公司對該飛機的需求增加，他們已經表示上調了我們明年的預測。因此，我們預計會看到這種增長。隨著他們獲得這些飛機並且產量不斷增加，預計到 2025 年將繼續成長。

On the 777, yes, that was disappointing that pushed out on the entry into service. That plane does have a very heavy titanium load. So I believe that there's a design issue that they're working through. That's not related to our material or us.

是的，777 推遲了投入運營，這令人失望。那架飛機確實有非常重的鈦負載。所以我相信他們正在解決一個設計問題。這與我們的材料或我們無關。

But we anticipate that they design and engineer that hopefully working on that even with the furloughs and other challenges they've got going on that we'll see some improvement in that timeline as we go into 2025. But we didn't have that, I would say, substantially built into any forecast or estimates as we look to 2025 as that was still really early in the production ramp.

但我們預計，即使面臨休假和其他挑戰，他們的設計和工程也有望解決這個問題，進入 2025 年，我們將看到這項時間表有所改善。但我想說的是，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們並沒有將這一點納入任何預測或估計中，因為那還處於產量成長的早期階段。

Okay. Great. And then just maybe as a follow-up. You mentioned the opportunity to drive margin being more significant in periods when production is stable. And so maybe now with some of these challenges kind of persisting into the early part of the first half of next year. Does that provide some opportunity to really drive efficiency through the operations and also to be prepared for the next ramp now that they're maybe not always running so hard to be in line with rising demand?

好的。偉大的。然後也許只是作為後續行動。您提到在生產穩定期間提高利潤率的機會更為重要。因此，現在其中一些挑戰可能會持續到明年上半年初期。這是否提供了一些機會來真正提高營運效率，並為下一次成長做好準備，因為他們可能不會總是那麼努力地運作以滿足不斷增長的需求？

So Seth, I'll take that one. The short answer is you're absolutely right, and it's great, it's very insightful that you picked up on that. But it doesn't mean that we're slowing down in terms of the delivery of margins toward our targets. So let me take that part of the answer first. So when you look at our margins this quarter, we delivered 17.7% on a consolidated basis.

所以塞斯，我會接受那個。簡而言之，你是絕對正確的，這很好，你對此的認識非常有洞察力。但這並不意味著我們在實現目標的利潤率方面正在放緩。所以讓我先回答這部分問題。因此，當您查看本季我們的利潤率時，我們的綜合利潤率為 17.7%。

If you strip out the oil and gas right sales, I think you're in the low 17%. So it's still above the debt threshold. We would expect our EBITDA margins in Q4 to be in that 17% range, a little bit lighter than what we had anticipated when we last talked last quarter but not much of a surprise being the reduction in production with the lower guide, bring some inefficiencies around absorption and those kinds of things.

如果剔除石油和天然氣銷售權，我認為您處於 17% 的低水平。所以它仍然高於債務門檻。我們預計第四季度的EBITDA 利潤率將在17% 的範圍內，比我們上個季度上次討論時的預期要低一些，但指導值較低導致產量減少，帶來一些效率低下，這並不令人意外。

But still, the business is going where we wanted to from a margin standpoint. But there's also a significant opportunity. We have this line of sight to get to our 18% to 20% range in 2025. I feel very, very good about that.

但從利潤率的角度來看，該業務仍在朝著我們想要的方向發展。但還有一個重要的機會。我們的目標是在 2025 年達到 18% 至 20% 的範圍。我對此感覺非常非常好。

But if there is any sort of pause in the ramp, of course, we'll take full advantage of that by accelerating our actions to improve efficiencies and yields and all those good things that are part of our plan and take full advantage of the resources that might or might not be available.

但是，如果在斜坡上有任何形式的暫停，當然，我們將通過加快行動來充分利用這一點，以提高效率和產量以及我們計劃中的所有這些好事，並充分利用資源這可能可用，也可能不可用。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Scott Fidel, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧菲德爾，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning. Kim, on the engine side, those demand changes primarily on, yes. Kim, on the demand side, were the demand changes on engines primarily on forged products? Or are there any customer pushouts in products like nickel alloys as well?

嘿，早安。Kim，在引擎方面，這些需求的變化主要是，是的。Kim，在需求方面，引擎的需求變化主要是鍛造產品嗎？或者鎳合金等產品是否也有顧客排斥？

The demand changes hit both of the HPMC businesses, I would say, based on Airbus updating their build rates and then people realigning, and this was earlier in the quarter, realigning to where Boeing's build rates were at. They were, I would say, small, and they were pushing quarter-to-quarter not cancellations are pushing out of even this year.

我想說，需求變化對 HPMC 業務造成了影響，這是因為空中巴士更新了其建造率，然後人員進行了重新調整，這是在本季度早些時候，重新調整了波音的建造率。我想說的是，他們規模很小，而且他們逐季推進，甚至今年也沒有取消。

So the majority of them, I would say, is probably split between forged products and SM. There is a lot of the material that goes forged products we produce, and it did hit both of the OEMs. I will say the GTF is a unique situation, right? So we're continuing to ramp and work with them. So there was no impact from that program.

所以我想說，其中大部分可能分為鍛造產品和 SM。我們生產的鍛造產品使用了許多材料，這確實對兩家原始設備製造商造成了影響。我會說 GTF 的情況很獨特，對吧？因此，我們將繼續與他們合作。所以該計劃沒有產生任何影響。

Okay. And then, Don, does the guidance for 2025 and 2027 leave meaningful cushion for things like you've experienced over the last several years like demand disruption, operational challenges and outages or weather related challenges?

好的。那麼，Don，2025 年和 2027 年的指導是否為您在過去幾年中經歷的諸如需求中斷、運營挑戰和停電或與天氣相關的挑戰等問題留下了有意義的緩衝？

Yes. Generally, it does. But let me drill in a little bit, okay? So when you think about '27, let's get that off the table. Our 2027, yes, it includes a number of scenarios, and those scenarios drive the range of our guidance. And so we believe we've been pretty thoughtful in that. Then let's look at 2025. So as you think about 2025, we gave an original guidance of $800 million to $900 million.

是的。一般來說，確實如此。但讓我稍微深入一下，好嗎？所以，當你想到 27 年時，我們就別再討論這個問題了。是的，我們的 2027 年包括許多情景，這些情景決定了我們指導的範圍。所以我們相信我們在這方面已經考慮得很周到了。然後我們再看看2025年。因此，當您考慮 2025 年時，我們給出了 8 億至 9 億美元的原始指引。

And as we talked about that, and we gave that guide in November of 2023, as we talked about that guide, we said the range is, it's driven by what we expect revenue is going to be and our margin profile and felt really good about that range. I still feel good about that original range.

正如我們所討論的那樣，我們在 2023 年 11 月提供了該指南，當我們討論該指南時，我們說範圍是，它是由我們預期的收入和我們的利潤狀況驅動的，並且感覺非常好那個範圍。我仍然對原來的系列感覺良好。

So as we think about the headwinds that will probably carry into the early part of 2025, those will, even though those headwinds will be there, we are still expecting modest growth in certainly in the first half and accelerated growth in the second half of 2025. And that's driven by our underlying end markets are strong regardless of the work stoppage with Boeing and some of these growing pains in the supply chain, we're seeing significant positive signals and jet engine and defense and the aero like that we talked about.

因此，當我們考慮可能持續到 2025 年上半年的不利因素時，即使這些不利因素確實存在，我們仍然預計 2025 年上半年肯定會出現溫和增長，而 2025 年下半年則會加速增長。這是由我們的潛在終端市場強勁推動的，無論波音停工以及供應鏈中的一些成長的煩惱如何，我們都看到了顯著的積極信號以及噴氣發動機和國防以及我們談到的航空航天。

And so we anticipate the business will do well and be within that original range. Now we had announced some additional sales commitments at the Farnborough Air Show. That would add about $40 million of EBITDA to the original range.

因此，我們預計業務將會表現良好並處於原來的範圍內。現在我們在範堡羅航展上宣布了一些額外的銷售承諾。這將使 EBITDA 在原來的基礎上增加約 4000 萬美元。

That is an area where we believe with these headwinds, we're probably in 2025, not going to see the full effect of that incremental $40 million. But this business being able to deliver $800 million to $900 million, obviously, $850 million is the midpoint there is, I think, a pretty good indicator of how positive we feel about this business.

我們認為，在這個領域，由於這些不利因素，我們可能在 2025 年不會看到新增的 4000 萬美元的全部效果。但這項業務能夠交付 8 億至 9 億美元的收入，顯然，8.5 億美元是中間值，我認為，這是一個很好的指標，表明我們對這項業務的看法有多積極。

Does that help answer your question?

這有助於回答您的問題嗎？

Thank you. Yes. And Don, just to clarify, were the asset sales and the prior free cash flow guide as well?

謝謝。是的。唐，只是想澄清一下，資產出售和之前的自由現金流是否也是指南？

Yes, somewhere. So there's, these are discrete asset sales. You never quite know what you're going to get. We do, we really do kind of go through our asset portfolio on a regular basis and identify if there's any capital in there that we could redeploy through a sale process.

是的，在某個地方。所以，這些都是離散資產銷售。你永遠不知道你會得到什麼。我們確實會定期檢查我們的資產組合，並確定其中是否有任何資本可以透過銷售流程重新部署。

So it's in a normal course for us to do that. I would say $40 million in a given quarter is on the high side. We wouldn't have expected that much, but there would have been some element of cash generated through this process.

所以我們這樣做是正常的。我認為某個季度 4000 萬美元偏高。我們沒想到那麼多，但透過這個過程會產生一些現金。

And as we think about the capital guide that we've given at on average, we expect to spend about $200 million of CapEx each year. We, as part of doing the calculation for that kind of spend, we take into consideration things like customer funded CapEx. We don't, somebody is going to give us $20 million for putting in an asset on their behalf, hey, we'll take it.

當我們考慮我們給出的平均資本指南時，我們預計每年花費約 2 億美元的資本支出。作為計算此類支出的一部分，我們會考慮客戶資助的資本支出等因素。我們不會，有人會給我們 2000 萬美元，讓我們代表他們投入資產，嘿，我們會接受的。

We don't put it into our spending calculation because they're paying for it. Same idea here. As we think about cash proceeds from asset sales, we'll typically tuck that in as a net offset funding source for our CapEx program, not huge dollars typically, but helpful in getting the returns that our shareholders deserve.

我們不會將其納入支出計算中，因為他們正在為此付費。這裡有同樣的想法。當我們考慮資產出售的現金收益時，我們通常會將其作為資本支出計劃的淨抵銷資金來源，通常不是巨額資金，但有助於獲得股東應得的回報。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. So I'll pass you back over to Dave Weston.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。那我會把你轉回戴夫·韋斯頓。

Thank you. As we move to close our call, I'd like to thank everyone for their time and invite everyone to reach out to our Investor Relations team with any other questions. With that, I'll pass it over to Kim for some closing remarks.

謝謝。在我們結束電話會議時，我要感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間，並邀請大家如有任何其他問題與我們的投資者關係團隊聯繫。接下來，我將把它轉交給 Kim 做總結發言。

Thanks, Dave. So let me just reiterate before we wrap up here. One, thank you for all those questions. The fundamentals in the aero and the defense markets are strong, and we're seeing quarter-over-quarter growth and margin expansion. ATI is well positioned with differentiated products where there are only a few companies in the world and in some cases, only us are able to make the materials that we do.

謝謝，戴夫。因此，在我們結束之前，讓我重申一下。一，謝謝你提出的所有這些問題。航空和國防市場的基本面強勁，我們看到季度環比成長和利潤率擴張。ATI 在差異化產品方面處於有利地位，而世界上只有少數幾家公司，在某些情況下，只有我們能夠生產我們所生產的材料。

Our customer relationships are growing and getting stronger every day because we are delivering for them when they need it. We are producing the highest quality products and they can rely on that, and we are developing new solutions for tomorrow's design challenges. So again, appreciate the time, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call.

我們的客戶關係每天都在發展壯大，因為我們在他們需要時為他們提供服務。我們正在生產最高品質的產品，他們可以信賴這一點，並且我們正在為未來的設計挑戰開發新的解決方案。再次感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，感謝大家加入此次電話會議。

This concludes the call today. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。