A O Smith Corp (AOS) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the fourth quarter 2007 earnings call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

I would now like to the conference over to our first speaker, Mr. Craig Watson, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on this conference call. Joining me this morning participating in the call our Paul Jones, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Terry Murphy, Chief Financial Officer, and John Kita, Controller and Senior Vice President of Finance.

Before we begin with Paul's remarks, I would like to remind you that some of the comments that will be made during this call, including answers to your questions, will constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in this morning's press release. With that, Paul?

Thank you, Craig, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Our operating units performed well in 2007 given the difficult conditions in the housing market. In spite of those difficulties, we generated record sales of $2.3 billion and earnings growth of 15% to $2.85 per share. Adjusted for $0.33 in non-recurring charges and $0.16 in tax benefits, we earned $3.02 per share above our forecast range of $2.95 issued at the beginning of the year. And as a result of a strong focus on working capital, we generated operating cash flow of $191 million, or $119 million of free cash flow after capital spending.

Sales at our Water Products operation in China grew 25% to $150 million and, along with strong sales of commercial water heating product, contributed to an operating margin of 10.5% in our Water Products business. It was 11.9% in the fourth quarter alone.

We also continued our margin enhancement initiatives in our motors business with the 2008 plant repositioning actions announced at the end of the third quarter. This morning, we established a 2008 earnings forecast of $2.70 to $2.90 per share, which includes estimated restructuring expense of $0.25 per share. Adjusted for the charge, we are forecasting earnings of between $2.95 and $3.15 per share before restructuring.

Regarding the outlook for 2008, we believe the soft housing market will continue throughout the year and may be accompanied by a slowdown in the commercial construction market. In addition, stubbornly-high prices for steel and copper continue to pressure our business. All of these factors, including the restructuring in our motors business, will make 2008 another challenging year for A. O. Smith, and thus, our forecast of earnings similar to those generated in 2007.

Terry will now talk about financial results in more detail.

Thank you, Paul, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Sales increased 7% to $2.3 billion in 2007 and recorded net earnings and earnings per share both increased 15%. Adjusted for $0.33 in restructuring charges and a $0.16 per share tax benefit, earnings $3.02 per share, up 13% compared with an adjusted $2.68 a share in 2006. I'll discuss the unusual tax benefits for both the year and the quarter later in the presentation.

Fourth quarter sales increased 5% to $570 million, while net earnings declined 10% to $17 million, or $0.55 a share. Fourth quarter earnings included $8.2 million, or a $0.26 per share, of restructuring charges and $0.06 per share in tax benefits. Adjusted for the restructuring charge and the tax benefits, earnings per share actually increased 7% to $0.75 a share, compared with adjusted earnings of $0.70 a share in the fourth quarter last year.

Looking at the segments, Water Products achieved record sales of $1.42 billion, a 13% increase over 2006 sales of $1.26 billion. The segment benefited from a full year of sales from GSW, increased sales of commercial water heaters and a 25% increase in sales in China.

In spite of selling price improvements to offset higher costs for raw materials and growth in the global market, sales in the Electrical Products segment declined modestly in 2007 to $894 million. Unit sales were negatively impacted by the weak housing market, most notably in the residential hermetic and pump motor segments, which more than offset improved sales in the commercial hermetic and distribution market segments.

Fourth quarter sales of $379 million at Water Products increased nearly 11% compared with the fourth quarter of 2006 due to strong sales in commercial and residential wholesale product and sales growth of 40% in China. Sales in the wholesale channel benefited from a pre-buy related to January 2008 price increase. At Electrical Products, fourth quarter sales of $192.4 million were 5% lower than the same period in 2006 due to weakness in its residential market segments, which more than offset growth in global markets.

As we look at operating profits, Water Products reported record 2007 profits of $150 million, representing a 23% increase over 2006. A full year of sales from the GSW acquisition, sales of higher-margin products and growth in China more than offset lower residential water heater volume and higher costs for raw materials and components. Operating profit margin increased to 10.5% in 2007 from 9.7% last year.

At Electrical Products, operating profit for 2007 declined to $23.1 million and included a restructuring charge, before taxes, of $22.8 million primarily associated with the planned 2008 closings of three manufacturing facilities. Operating profit was $48.1 million in 2006 and included pretax restructuring expense of $8.9 million. Excluding restructuring expenses, the operating margin for 2007 was 5.1%, compared with 6.3% last year. The lower operating profit and margin were primarily the result of a decline in unit volumes.

Corporate expense increased $5.6 million as a result of an increase in expenses for discontinued operation, a dispute with a software vendor, a corporate pension adjustment and miscellaneous other increases.

At Water Products, strong fourth quarter sales of commercial product and growth in China generated a 33% increase in operating profit to $45.1 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2006. Fourth quarter operating margin grew to 11.9%, compared with 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Electrical Products recorded an $18 million loss in the fourth quarter, which included a $21.2 million pretax charge for restructuring. Fourth quarter operating profit in 2006 was $9.3 million and included $3.1 million for restructuring. Excluding restructuring charges, operating profit at Electrical Products was $3.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with adjusted profit of $12.4 million last year.

Operating margin at Electrical Products was 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with 6.2% in 2006. The lower operating profit and margin resulted from higher raw material costs and a decline in unit volumes that more than offset improved pricing. The fourth quarter of 2007 also included a $4 million LIFO benefit related lower inventory levels, which was mostly offset by an increase in the Company's bad debt reserve of approximately $3 million.

Excluding one-time benefits, our normalized tax rate was 24.7% for 2007. The one-time benefits totaled approximately $5 million, equivalent $0.16 a share for the year and $0.06 a share for the fourth quarter. About $0.12 of the benefit related to the expiration of statutes of limitations on prior filings as well as completed tax audits. The other $0.04 related to a China investment incentive.

In addition to the $0.06 benefit, the fourth quarter are also benefited from lower taxes resulting from higher income in the lower tax jurisdictions of China and Mexico. The effect of this benefit was approximately $0.03 a share. The favorable tax treatment in China and Mexico that we've enjoyed over the last few years will begin to expire in 2008. We expect our tax rate to increase to approximately 26.5% in 2008.

Operating cash flow of $191 million in 2007 surpassed expectations. After capital spending of $71 million, free cash flow totaled $119 million. In addition to strong earnings, a strong focus on working capital management at Electrical Products made a strong contribution to the record cash flow.

Total cash cycle days declined significantly to 57 days from 65 last year. A sharp reduction in inventory and improved Accounts Payable days more than offset an increase in Days Sales Outstanding.

Depreciation and amortization totaled approximately $68 million in 2007, compared to $71 million in capital spending last -- excuse me, compared to $71 million in capital spending. Capital spending is expected to range between $85 million and $90 million for 2008 and the increase is primarily due to the water heater capacity expansion projects in China and the new facility for the Yueyang motor operation. As a result of the excellent cash flow, our debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 34.3% from 39.1 at the end of 2006.

We also purchased a total of 1 million shares in 2007 at an average price of $36.60 a share for $36.6 million. This completed the 1 million share authorization granted last February. In December, the Board granted an authorization for another 1 million shares.

For 2008, we are expecting full year operating cash flow of approximately $150 million.

As we announced at the end of the third quarter, we will close our operations in Scottsville, Kentucky and Mebane, North Carolina and consolidate our North American hermetic motor manufacturing operations in Juarez and Acuna, Mexico. We expect the transfer of work at both hermetic facilities to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2008. Will also close our motor facility in Budapest, Hungary by the end the first quarter and transfer the remaining production to China. We expect to generate savings of approximately $5 million in the later part this year and annual savings of $20 million beginning in 2009 from these repositioning actions. The full-year impact on operating profit is expected to add at least 200 basis points to the 2009 operating margin at Electrical Products.

Now a little more detail on the cost of the restructuring initiatives at Electrical Products. During the first nine months of 2007, Electrical Products recorded pretax restructuring charges of $1.6 million, or $1 million after taxes, equivalent $0.03 a share. During the fourth quarter of 2007, we recorded a $12 million pretax charge, or $8.7 million after taxes, associated with the closing of the North American facilities and a write-down in the value of other assets. We also recorded a pretax charge of $9.2 million to close the Budapest operation and a $9.9 million benefit associated with the write-off of its investment in that operation.

In the fourth quarter, the combined pretax charge was $21.2 million, or $7.9 million after taxes, equivalent to $0.25 a share. For the full year, the restructuring expense at Electrical Products totaled $22.8 million before taxes, or $8.9 million after taxes, equivalent to $0.28 a share.

In 2008 we expect a record an additional pretax restructuring charge of approximately $13.2 million associated with the above-mentioned facilities, equivalent to $7.9 million after taxes, or approximately $0.25 a share. The expense is expected to be incurred relatively evenly throughout 2008.

In addition to the restructuring charges at Electrical Products, we also recorded a pretax charge in corporate of $2 million, or $1.2 million after tax, equivalent to $0.04 a share, in charges primarily related to discontinued operations.

Now Paul is going to talk about the outlook for 2008 and then we'll open up the call for questions.

Thanks, Terry. Throughout 2007, the impact of housing-related weakness was more than offset by strength in our commercial, Asian, and Middle East businesses and the positive impact of our ongoing cost reduction initiatives. We are again forecasting lower unit sales in our residential businesses in 2008. Furthermore, we believe the weakness in construction could broaden and negatively affect our commercial businesses later in the year. Accordingly, we are projecting commercial sales in the North American market to be no better than equal to sales in 2007.

On a more positive note, we expect our businesses in Asia and the Middle East to continue to generate favorable results for the coming year. The China water heater operation continues to post impressive results, with sales growth of 25% to $150 million in 2007, and it continues to return double-digit operating margins. We expect that momentum to continue in 2008, with expected sales growth of 20 to 25%.

Last year, we launched the next phase in their expansion. When this phase is completed by the end 2009, we expect once again to have doubled capacity to more than 2 million units.

Our commercial hermetic motor operation in Yeuyang and Suzhou are also making good traction and grew more than 20% in 2007. In Yueyang, we broke ground on a new facility that we expect to be up to speed by the middle of next year.

However, notwithstanding the bright prospects in China, we remain concerned of the outlook for 2008. The persistence of the soft housing market, a slowdown in commercial construction, stubbornly-high prices for steel and copper will all continue to pressure our business in 2008. All of these factors, including the restructuring of our motors business, will make 2008 another challenging year for A. O. Smith.

Accordingly, we expect earnings, including an expected $0.25 per share in restructuring for the motor business, to range between $2.70 and $2.90 per share. Excluding the restructuring charge, earnings are expected to range between $2.95 and $3.15 per share, compared with an adjusted earnings per share of $3.02 in 2007.

With that, we're ready to take your questions. I'll turn it back over to Art.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Scott Graham, Bear Stearns.

This is actually [Andy Keller] with Keller Research. A couple of questions. As we go into a very challenging economy for the remainder of the year, Paul, what would you say are going to be your operational improvement initiatives regarding Lean manufacturing, TPM, and Six Sigma and so forth?

Well, I think we've got a pretty good record their of operational improvements. We are looking at not only efficiencies in the businesses, but also using our capital primarily for productivity projects and we have a lot of design initiatives. So pretty much the things that we have been doing, maybe enhancing them a little bit, given the concerns of the economy.

Ted Wheeler, Buckingham Research.

(technical difficulty) or perhaps quantify the pre-buy.

Excuse me, Mr. Wheeler. This is the operator. Can you start your question again? We missed the start of your question.

Yes, the question is I wonder if you could quantify or add some color to the impact of the pre-buy wholesale issue in Water Products business in the fourth quarter.

We had a stronger-than-expected December, Ted, with the -- and we think a lot of that was the pre-buy. We are also very pleased with what our sales group is doing there, not only on commercial, but residential wholesale. We're pleased with what Sears and Lowe's have been doing with water heaters.

So we had a pretty good quarter even without affecting the pre-buy. And I would characterize the pre-buy as minor. We are actually off to a pretty good start this year, so I don't think it is going to have a huge effect on our first quarter.

Just trying to sort through, I guess the third quarter sales were down, the fourth quarter sales are up nicely. If you look into the first quarter, would you think sales would be up or down in Water Products?

It's too early to say. I would predict, again, 80% of that business is replacement and that hangs in there fairly well for us. As a matter of fact, given what is going on in housing, the replacement market is probably more than 80% now for the Water Products business. But my best guess at the first quarter would be flat volume. Commercial is holding up very well so far. We're only three weeks into the year.

Okay, I guess -- I know it is a question you don't like, but I'm going to ask it anyway and that is on pricing, where costs are and where prices are as you kind of -- just generally, I know you don't be specific, but if you could add some color on how that sits as you look at '08, the interplay between raw materials and product pricing.

We've got a pretty good track record there. We are the only public company that reports on the water heater side. It is a concentrated industry and I'm just not going to make any comments other than that. We had 11.9% operating profit in the fourth quarter in our water heater business. We are not happy with that. We think it ought to be higher.

Well, that's a good answer. I guess do you think that issue will be materially different from the good management job you did in '07?

Well, we have the same team working on it. They're always coming up with new ideas. I am proud of what's going on in both of our operations now. We have to take a little more longer-term approach at Electrical Products, but -- and we're taking a long-term approach at Water Products, too. It's just that we've got some traction there that is visible to the marketplace and the things going on in Electrical Products won't be visible to the marketplace for several months yet. But they will be visible also.

Great, thanks again.

Scott Graham, Bear Stearns.

I have questions about pricing and recognizing, Paul, that you don't give those numbers out anymore, would you expect to increase prices in either or both divisions after this price increase that you are referring to in water heaters that is the recent one? After this one, are you expecting more price increases from your businesses going out to the market?

It'll be driven primarily by what happens with steel, copper and other commodities, maybe even freight, and those will be the things that drive our decisions.

Right, could you give us an idea of the receptivity of customers of this latest price increase? Beyond the pre-buy, was this maybe the first time in a while you have maybe seem some pushback?

I think we see pushback every time we try to raise prices (multiple speakers)

Recognizing that, Paul, I think you know where I'm coming from. You have a weaker market climate than we have had in some time and I am wondering if the pushback intensity is higher now.

I'm not going to try to characterize that. I will say if you have looked, this steel indices, the CRU index went up $149 a ton, which is, in my opinion, unconscionable, but I guess greed is out there and alive and well in the steel industry, because I don't see any economic reasons to have that big of an increase. But like we've been doing all along, us and our competitors, we know how to deal with these things. We have had to learn in the last four-plus years how to put these indices into our contracts so that we get automatic pricing on our motor side when things like this happen with copper and steel and other commodity indices when they move up.

Are you changing the way you are buying or contracting to buy raw materials in 2008?

No.

And the GSW acquisition, in hindsight, was a nice one from an earnings accretion standpoint. Even though it has the preponderance of your sales in this market that is probably got some limitations on growth, nevertheless it seems to have been a really good fit for you guys after all. I am wondering -- you went out, initially, with sort of this 60 to 70% accretion estimate. Could you kind of gauge where you are relative to that estimate? And I know that you loath to talk about specifics, Paul, but whatever you can give us, bigger-than-a-breadbox-type of stuff would be helpful, and where you see that type of number -- where you see that number going in the next two years.

Well, we were very pleased with the GSW acquisition and we got a lot more than a good, solid business. We got a terrific management team. We got some engineering talent that is paying off across all our whole water heater operation. We have stopped keeping track of the synergies internally as synergies. We still have specific projects that are cost improvement related, new product performance, energy efficiency related. As a matter of fact, in our water heater operation, we have the best stream of new products coming to market than we've had in a long, long time because we have had the time to work of them instead of working on all the regulatory compliance designs.

I'm excited about the new products that we have coming to market. I think they're going to help us pick some share this year as we go forward, because we're going to generate -- going to have a value proposition for the customer base.

But as far as the GSW, when you look at things like we have a new combustion chamber coming to market next quarter, that is going to go across all lines. Well, we get a benefit from GSW because we have more volume because of GSW. So when we have a certain amount of savings per water heater, we have more water heaters take that across. Well, is that a synergy? You probably could say it is, but in our opinion, we have got a solid water heater operation with good marketshares, with a good set of customers and we are working with those customers to try to make our business and theirs be even stronger.

Okay, that's helpful. I guess the two other questions I would have for you, one on water heaters and one on motors. You know, when you look at Lowe's and the display at Lowe's of the water heaters, it is really very attractive and for you guys, that is obviously a winning strategy for both of you. Whereas you go to Home Depot, truthfully, it is a nightmare, with dust on the boxes, very little product shown and what have you. I am wondering, have you discussed anything cooperatively with Lowe's to try to get people to see not only the number of SKUs and how they are described, in what is the high replacement market. Have you discussed anything cooperatively with Lowe's to sort of tout this for you?

Every day. We are in constant cooperation with Lowe's. We love them. They are doing a terrific job in the marketplace. They are very focused on gaining share versus their largest competitor. And they are doing a good job of it and we are in there working with them day in and day out on a whole array of things to try to help make sure that Lowe's continues to be successful with their water heater business.

Thank you, last question. Whereas the execution in water heaters continues to look quite good for you guys, the motors number, the margin was kind of an eyesore and I know that the factors that you discussed related to that number, but it just doesn't seem to explain the entirety of what I think was a 1.7% operating margin in the business, which other than that period two, three years ago when you actually had losses in the business in the second half. That was as bad as it gets and I'm wondering -- I think it was as bad as it gets -- and I'm wondering what gives you guys the confidence that the motors group is going to be able to pull off the restructuring seamlessly? What are you guys doing to monitor that? Is there any way to do this thing faster than over a year of time?

Well, you had several questions there. Let me just talk in general. The motors business is doing a lot of heavy lifting now. By the end of this year, we will have redesigned over 60% of the product. This is our Lean initiative. That's one of those things you are not seeing, but I see it every month or twice a month. We typically visit that operation a couple of times a month. I'm very pleased with the management team. It has not shown up, but this group has done a phenomenal job. We will now have closed, I think by the time this one is done, 15 plants within -- 12 to 15, I have lost track -- within the last 4.5 years in that business and they have nailed the numbers. They know how to move product, know how to get it moved to lower-cost manufacturing. And I have got tremendous confidence in that management team.

It is going to be seen in a year. If we can do it faster, we're going to try to do it faster. We have a couple of ideas and couple of initiatives maybe that could cause some of this to happen a little faster, but right now, we're just letting you know what we see and we are being our typical slightly-conservative selves and we are going to keep encouraging and helping that management team do what they already know how to do. Our focus is on 2009, when we expect to have a significantly-improved margins in the motor business, which is what we communicated to you three months ago. We are still on track to achieve that.

That's fine. Thanks, Paul.

Matt Schneider (sic), Robert W. Baird.

Good morning, guys. It's Mike Schneider. I guess first starting on water heaters, it was my understanding, Paul and Terry, that I guess going back a couple of years, the steel issue and to some extent copper was resolved by negotiating or altering the contracts to be much more pass-through oriented.

Can you discuss, I guess, if that has changed and why we're still talking about raw materials at this point and water heaters, given those contract changes? Then the same question I guess on the motors side of the business.

Well, it really applies more to motors, Mike. We don't have contracts with our wholesalers, so I don't know where that impression came out. We have sales agreements with them, but the water heater business, when we have an announced increase we announce an increase and it's across the board, and that is the way that gets sold into the market.

We do have something a little more definitive with our large retail customers, as you might expect, but the contracts and the indices changes is on the motor side. And essentially with every one of our OEMs from us and our competition in 2004, we all learned how to do this. We have all the pricing from almost all set up on an index relative, so that whatever our material costs are, we are able to recover that on the sell side.

Okay, so then the commentary around the motor operating margin of 1.7%, some of the explanation was blamed on higher raw material costs and also lower volumes. The lower volumes are clear, but again given your comments, why is it that raw materials are still hitting the motors business?

Well, it hits distribution. We don't have contracts there. Distribution is now $150 million of the business. We've been consciously trying to grow that as much as we can. By the way -- I better not say that -- something that's not public relative to that right now. But it is one that, again, we are constantly looking for ways to improve the margins there.

I can't remember how many price increases we've implemented at both motors and water heaters. It has been a lot. Some of them have been design-related, regulatory-related, but the majority of them the last four years have been relative to raw material prices, which have shot up dramatically. We are going to continue to do what we have been doing.

Okay, then sticking with motors, could you give us some commentary on the specific market slices within motors; what is I guess running below or above expectations? I presume distribution is still one of the principal areas of growth, and then maybe the other segments if you could comment.

Yes, I'm going to be real general, Mike, because as you know when we used to be more specific, our competitors loved it. So I don't want to give them any more help than they're already getting.

The things that are performing well are commercial hermetic. I think it was up over 20% in the quarter. We are doing very well in the Middle East with that product, as well as in Asia, as well as in the U.S. Distribution has had a real good year and we've picked up another couple pieces of business that we are going to fold in this year.

It will not surprise you that the disappointments would be residential hermetic. Again, that is a Bristol comment. And the HAC was off in the fourth quarter significantly, primarily because -- not because we lost any customers, but our customers were taking some time off. The majority of the HAC factories took a lot of time off over the holidays. I think all but one that we serve did not start production till January 7. They even took that first three days of January off.

So a little bit of an effect in the fourth quarter and a little bit in the first quarter.

Is the change in mix in that it is greater distribution each quarter, is that also weighing on the margins for the overall segment?

What do you mean, Mike? I didn't understand that.

Is the growth in the distribution piece of the business actually weighing on the margins or depressing margins for the segment?

It helps the margins.

It helps the margins, okay.

Yes, very much.

And then inventory, cash flow was strong. Is part of the explanation inventory reduction efforts as far as the margins go in the motors business, as well during Q4?

Yes, it is. Once again, the motors business generated over $80 million in cash flow, and when you figure only 20 some million out of that was related to operating earnings, that says what they've done. We've been putting in a new operating system there and one thing you get with a new operating system is you learn some things you didn't know before and we've got some real good data. We are using that data to help schedule and run our factories better and they're taking a lot of inventory out.

Did we take some absorption hits because of that? Sure. Gladly, by the way. We're delighted to have the cash flow and they understand that any time they take the inventories down, we will take the absorption hit to do that. So there's a lot of moving parts there, Mike, a lot of things applying there. I think question was rather we had some increased costs from absorption that lowered our operating margin, and the answer is yes, we did.

Do you believe you're complete with that process or is Q1 another quarter that suffers under absorption?

I think we can -- we always have opportunities on working capital and we are going to keep looking at it. Granted the last three years have been pretty good years for working capital for us and at some point, we're not going to be able to keep doing -- getting our cash cycle days down to 57. 65 to 57 was a terrific accomplishment. I think I would be way out there if I thought we could do that again, because it was essentially the low-hanging fruit. A good portion of that is already done, but we're still focused on working capital. We still believe -- last year we started the year saying $150 million was our internal plan, but we're saying that again this year. If we can do better than that, I assure you we will.

Looking into '08, now, for the motors division, can give us a sense -- knowing that there's some very easy comparisons because of housing in '07, I guess what segments you would actually expect maybe the greatest growth in units and then what segments of the motors business you would expect probably to be most challenged in unit growth in 2008?

Asia is going to be very strong, we believe. U.S. commercial is still going very strong so far this year. Our order rate is essentially the same as it was at the end of last year, or all of last year, which was strong year. I think HAC will be challenged I think simply due to the new construction. The replacement piece is an area we're focusing on. We expect that will continue to go well. We think probably pump will be challenged and of course, residential hermetic will be challenged.

On the other side of it, I talked about the new products coming online at Water Products. We have some pretty exciting motor products coming online. We do have something, an initiative going on an ECM motor that is not going to -- it will amount down to a few units in late '08, but it could be a significant portion of our business in '09 and beyond. And we have some high-efficiency products coming to market that we think can command premiums and time will tell whether we can achieve that. I am frankly excited about some of the new products we have coming along.

Okay, Terry, sticking with motors, the LIFO benefit I presume was because of the delayering and the inventory reduction efforts?

Yes.

Okay, and then the bad debt reserve, can you explained what that relates to?

There were two small customers, both of which had some economic problems and the total accrual was somewhere in the $3 million neighborhood for these two customers, neither of which were real large customers.

Okay, then two final questions, I promise. First just looking at both businesses, do you guys have an implicit housing assumption or housing starts assumption for 2008?

Yes, we think our assumption on housing starts is around 1.1 million. I actually have challenged the businesses to put in contingency plans at a lower number. I think based on -- when we put our budget together in November, that is what we targeted on, but I think we are already possibly expecting -- maybe we're reading too much of the press. I don't know, but we're expecting a lower number than that.

Okay, then China, just to finish on a positive note, great growth. I presume still one of your most profitable businesses. In looking into '08 now, as the growth continues, can you talk about margins looking forward for that specific segment? What I would like you specifically to address is the cost now of going from tier one cities to tear two cities and then maybe just the additional capacity and overhead burden that you've got I presume as you've doubled and are on the cusp of doubling capacity again.

Yes, I'll make an announcement during this. We actually built over 1 million water heaters last year. We crossed the million mark right at the end of December. Very good growth and that business is going to continue to grow. The capacity we're bringing online is to take us to over 2 million units in '09. We will have some of the capacity online late this year. It looks like we're going to need it, which is good.

Margins continue to be in the teens. That is all I'll say about it. And I think the management team there is managing the cost side of that very well. Again, lots of new products. We're constantly bringing out new products, which gives us an opportunity to put a new margin point out there, a new price point on these new products. And that business is going well.

I will also point out that our motors business is growing significantly in Asia. A lot of it is export out of China to the Middle East and some to Europe. And that business has very good margins, so we are overall -- the Yueyang operation, which is growing dramatically, but it is just small proportionally. But our water heater business used to be small too and it has got higher margins than the water heater business. I hope that is enough color, because is all I'm going to give you, Mike.

Okay, thank you again.

Matt Summerville, KeyBanc.

Paul, I have listened to all your comments on pricing, raw material costs and I've got to be honest, it is still unclear to me if you believe you're in parity right now in the water heater business with the increase you've gone out with and maybe you can talk about wholesale versus retail. And then in the motor business, with copper where it is right now, do you believe you are in price parity here in early 2008?

Operating margins in our water heater business went up about one point last year and we're expecting those margins to continue to expand. On the motor side, we buy about half our copper along with our customers, specific customers, so obviously we are in parity there when we do that. The other half of our copper we typically hedge, as do all of our competitors. I think we, like them, have done a pretty good job there.

Did you go out with a price increase in your motor business? You mentioned one water heaters.

Yes.

Okay, all my other questions were answered. Thanks.

Jeffrey Matthews, Ram Partners.

I am not asking for names, I'm just trying to understand the type of company that you had -- you said they were small, but that you had bad debt reserves on. Is this --?

They're both on the motor side of the business, both small companies on the motor side of the business.

They were OEM customers of ours, where we supply a motor that goes into a system. And it is probably not companies you would even recognize -- (multiple speakers) very small.

And each of the companies made up about half of the bad debt accrual.

Okay, international, U.S., or no geographic issue.

U.S.

Okay, thanks very much.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Mr. Jones, there are no further questions. Please go ahead with any other closing remarks.

Okay, we appreciate everybody's interest in the Company. As always, give us a call with your questions. Thanks for your time today. We appreciate it.

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available today for replay from 11:00 a.m. Central through midnight tomorrow, the 24th. You can access the replay by dialing 1-800-475-6701 and then you'll be asked for an access code. The access code is 907024. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and thank you for using AT&T Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.