怡安集團 (AON) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon PLC's third-quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time.

早安，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Aon PLC 2024 年第三季電話會議。（操作員指示）我還想提醒各方，此通話正在錄音。如果有人有異議，您可以此時斷開線路。

It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature, as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our third-quarter 2024 results, as well as having been posted on our website.

值得注意的是，今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》所定義的某些前瞻性聲明。此類陳述存在某些風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果有重大差異。有關可能導致此類差異的風險因素的資訊在我們 2024 年第三季業績的新聞稿中進行了描述，並已發佈在我們的網站上。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon PLC.

現在我很高興將電話轉給怡安集團執行長格雷格·凱斯。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third-quarter conference call. I'm joined by Edmund Reese, our CFO; and Eric Andersen, our President.

大家早安。歡迎參加我們的第三季電話會議。我們的財務長 Edmund Reese 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的總裁 Eric Andersen。

And we're especially delighted to have Edmund here, leading his first quarterly earnings call as our CFO. As in previous quarters, we posted a detailed financial presentation on our website and with webcast slides, which Edmund will reference in his remarks.

我們特別高興埃德蒙來到這裡，他作為我們的首席財務官主持了他的第一次季度收益電話會議。與前幾季一樣，我們在網站上發布了詳細的財務簡報和網路廣播幻燈片，埃德蒙將在他的演講中引用這些簡報。

To begin, we want to extend our deepest sympathies to those impacted by recent natural disasters, including hurricanes, flooding, and typhoons around the world, particularly Hurricane Helene and Milton.

首先，我們要向最近遭受自然災害影響的人們致以最深切的同情，這些自然災害包括世界各地的颶風、洪水和颱風，特別是颶風海倫和米爾頓。

In these times of challenge, as communities endure the tragic loss of life and tremendous damage, our actions as a firm focus especially hard on helping businesses and communities respond and recover. To our 60,000 colleagues who make this possible, thank you in all you do and for your tireless commitment and dedication to our clients.

在這個充滿挑戰的時期，當社區遭受悲慘的生命損失和巨大破壞時，我們堅定不移地採取行動，特別努力幫助企業和社區應對和復原。感謝我們 60,000 名同事使這一切成為可能，感謝你們所做的一切以及對我們客戶的不懈承諾和奉獻。

Together, we're executing our three-by-three plan on each of the three pillars, delivering risk capital and human capital solutions through the Aon client leadership model, scaled by our Aon business services operating platform. This is a monumental effort, and we're seeing it in our results. Year-to-date financial performance represents great progress and puts us well on track to achieve our goals in 2024 and over the long term.

我們正在共同執行針對三大支柱的三乘三計劃，透過怡安客戶領導力模型提供風險資本和人力資本解決方案，並透過怡安商業服務營運平台進行擴展。這是一項巨大的努力，我們在結果中看到了這一點。今年迄今的財務表現代表了巨大的進步，使我們有望實現 2024 年及長期的目標。

Highlighting our results and key messages from the quarter and year to date in Q3, our team delivered 7% total organic revenue growth, with all solution lines at 6% or greater, and consistent organic revenue growth from Aon and NFP. With this organic growth and the addition of NFP, we delivered 26% total revenue growth, 28% adjusted operating income growth, an adjusted operating margin of 24.6%, an increase of 70 basis points year over year from our combined 2023 margin baseline.

強調我們第三季和今年迄今的業績和關鍵訊息，我們的團隊實現了7% 的總有機收入成長，所有解決方案系列均達到6% 或更高，並且怡安和NFP 的有機收入持續成長。透過這種有機成長和NFP 的加入，我們實現了26% 的總收入成長、28% 的調整後營業收入成長、24.6% 的調整後營業利潤率，較2023 年合併利潤率基準同比增長70 個基點。

Year to date, we delivered 6% organic revenue growth, 15% total revenue growth, and 70 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion from our baseline, including roughly five months with NFP contributing to 15% adjusted operating income growth and 9% growth in earnings per share. We also made progress on de-levering, executing attractive M&A, and returning capital to shareholders with $800 million in share buyback year to date.

今年迄今為止，我們的有機收入成長了6%，總收入成長了15%，調整後營業利潤率較基準成長了70 個基點，其中約五個月的NFP 貢獻了15% 的調整後營業收入成長和9% 的營業利潤成長。我們還在去槓桿化、執行有吸引力的併購以及向股東返還資本方面取得了進展，今年迄今已進行了 8 億美元的股票回購。

NFP continues to perform exceptionally well, exactly in line with expectations for top-line growth, cost and revenue synergies, free cash flow, and ongoing M&A activity, all executed through our independent and connected operating strategy. Overall, we remain fully on track to achieve our financial guidance for mid-single-digit-or-greater organic revenue growth, margin expansion, and double-digit free cash flow growth over the long term, all supported by disciplined capital management.

NFP 繼續表現出色，完全符合對營收成長、成本和收入協同效應、自由現金流和持續併購活動的預期，所有這些都是透過我們獨立和互聯的營運策略執行的。總體而言，我們仍然完全有望實現中個位數或更高的有機收入成長、利潤率擴張和長期兩位數自由現金流成長的財務指導，所有這些都得到嚴格的資本管理的支持。

As we reflect on future client demand and our momentum, we would offer a few observations. In every industry and region, our clients are telling us that it's getting harder to make decisions across risk and people issues. They face increasing volatility as decision-making becomes more complex, requires deeper insights, stronger partnerships, and more innovative solutions.

當我們反思未來的客戶需求和我們的動力時，我們將提供一些觀察。在每個行業和地區，我們的客戶都告訴我們，針對風險和人員問題做出決策變得越來越困難。隨著決策變得更加複雜，需要更深入的見解、更強大的合作夥伴關係和更具創新性的解決方案，他們面臨越來越大的波動性。

Businesses are demanding urgent action, and we're well positioned to respond, with exceptional solutions in our core business and with the development and delivery of content, capability, and expertise that helps clients effectively address their challenges.

企業需要採取緊急行動，我們有能力做出回應，在核心業務中提供卓越的解決方案，並開發和交付內容、能力和專業知識，幫助客戶有效應對挑戰。

Our three-by-three plan is designed to meet these needs across the pillars of risk capital, human capital, Aon client leadership, and Aon business services, leveraging our structure to unlock new, integrated solutions to support our clients. A recent client example highlights this opportunity across all three pillars of our plan.

我們的三乘三計劃旨在滿足風險資本、人力資本、怡安客戶領導力和怡安商業服務等支柱的這些需求，利用我們的結構來解鎖新的整合解決方案來支援我們的客戶。最近的一個客戶範例強調了我們計劃的所有三個支柱中的這個機會。

Our client, a leading global construction company, needed a partner who could help them place one of the largest insurance programs in the marketplace for their contractors, with seamless support and connection across multiple geographies. Historically, the program consisted of multiple regional placements, creating inefficiencies, which were growing with our client's own rapid business growth.

我們的客戶是一家全球領先的建築公司，需要一個合作夥伴來幫助他們為其承包商提供市場上最大的保險計劃之一，並在多個地區提供無縫支援和連接。從歷史上看，該計劃由多個區域安置組成，導致效率低下，而且隨著客戶自身業務的快速增長，效率也隨之提高。

To do this, our global team brought regional data and insights from our analytic tools together in a more efficient global placement, supported by enhanced service delivery. Collectively, we delivered a program for our clients that enabled them to maintain coverage, optimize their placement process, improve transparency, and deliver savings.

為此，我們的全球團隊將區域數據和分析工具的見解結合在一起，在增強的服務交付的支持下，實現更有效率的全球佈局。總的來說，我們為客戶提供了一個計劃，使他們能夠維持覆蓋範圍、優化安置流程、提高透明度並節省成本。

Our team's seamless work demonstrated the differentiated value that we bring without silos, underscored by the financial advantage and innovation made possible through risk capital insights and Aon business services. And as we think about Aon business services, our data analytics were a meaningful part of this win.

我們團隊的無縫工作證明了我們在沒有孤島的情況下帶來的差異化價值，透過風險資本洞察和怡安商業服務實現的財務優勢和創新突顯了這一點。當我們考慮怡安商業服務時，我們的數據分析是這場勝利的重要組成部分。

And this was only the beginning, not only for this client, but much more broadly. As we have often highlighted, a primary element of our strategy is bringing together our data, analytics, operations, and platforms to deliver insight in more powerful ways at scale.

這只是一個開始，不僅對於這個客戶來說，而且對於更廣泛的領域也是如此。正如我們經常強調的那樣，我們策略的一個主要要素是將我們的數據、分析、營運和平台結合在一起，以更強大的方式大規模提供洞察力。

Because of the steps we've taken to build one platform, Aon business services, we can develop tools and capabilities that effectively use AI today and evolve in the future, with capabilities like new climate risk data and our property analyzer, all the insight around medical innovation, demographics, and claims, and our health risk analyzer.

由於我們為建構怡安商業服務這個平台所採取的步驟，我們可以開發有效利用當今人工智慧並在未來不斷發展的工具和功能，包括新的氣候風險數據和我們的財產分析器等功能，以及圍繞人工智慧的所有洞察力。

The investments we're making are helping to ensure we can continue to develop these advanced analytic tools and deliver differentiated value for clients, further strengthen our relationships, and enable us to do more with them.

我們正在進行的投資有助於確保我們能夠繼續開發這些先進的分析工具，為客戶提供差異化的價值，進一步加強我們的關係，並使我們能夠利用他們做更多的事情。

Finally, highlighting NFP. We remain even more excited than when we announced and closed the deal, and remain exactly on track through our expectations. NFP's performance in the quarter continues to reinforce this thesis, reflecting great work by our combined teams. One area that we're really seeing strength is what we're building on NFP's strong client relationships by bringing additional content capabilities and tools to our NFP team.

最後，強調非農就業數據。我們仍然比宣布和完成交易時更加興奮，並且完全符合我們的預期。NFP 本季的表現繼續強化了這一論點，反映了我們聯合團隊的出色工作。我們真正看到優勢的一個領域是，我們透過為我們的 NFP 團隊帶來額外的內容功能和工具，以 NFP 強大的客戶關係為基礎。

Let me briefly highlight two examples of how our independent and connected operating strategy is driving value for clients and is accretive to Aon's performance. In our commercial risk business, NFP colleagues can now bring our CyQu tool to clients.

讓我簡要介紹兩個例子，說明我們的獨立和互聯營運策略如何為客戶創造價值並增加怡安的表現。在我們的商業風險業務中，NFP 同事現在可以將我們的 CyQu 工具帶給客戶。

This capability lets our clients analyze and understand their cyber risk in terms of underlying risk, mitigation factors, and insurance cost drivers. This is a powerful tool for clients of all sizes, and the benefit is resonating with our NFP teams and clients.

此功能使我們的客戶能夠從潛在風險、緩解因素和保險成本驅動因素分析和了解其網路風險。對於各種規模的客戶來說，這是一個強大的工具，其好處是與我們的 NFP 團隊和客戶產生共鳴。

Similarly, in health solutions, we're seeing great success with our health efficiency analyzer. This analytic capability helps clients understand health program dynamics across their population and across geographies, enabling actions to better assess drivers of spend, improve ROI, and manage healthcare investments for their people.

同樣，在健康解決方案中，我們的健康效率分析儀也取得了巨大成功。這種分析功能可幫助客戶了解整個人群和各個地區的健康計畫動態，從而採取行動更好地評估支出驅動因素、提高投資回報率並管理其員工的醫療保健投資。

Finally, our independent and connected operating strategy is resonating with our NFP colleagues and with our NFP M&A pipeline targets, and with talented potential new hires, who appreciate and understand the operating flexibility and additional value that being part of Aon can bring to their clients.

最後，我們獨立且互聯的營運策略與我們的NFP 同事、我們的NFP 併購管道目標以及有才華的潛在新員工產生共鳴，他們欣賞並理解成為怡安的一部分可以為其客戶帶來的營運靈活性和附加價值。

In summary, our Q3 and year-to-date results demonstrate strong progress against our financial guidance. We're taking meaningful steps to continue to deliver great capability to our clients through our three-by-three plan, ensuring we bring relevant solutions to our clients, all enabled through Aon business services. We remain confident in our strategy, our financial guidance and outlook, and our ability to drive long-term value creation for our clients, our colleagues, and shareholders.

總之，我們第三季和年初至今的業績表明，與我們的財務指導相比，取得了巨大進展。我們正在採取有意義的步驟，透過我們的三乘三計劃繼續為我們的客戶提供強大的能力，確保我們為客戶提供相關的解決方案，所有這些都透過怡安商業服務實現。我們對我們的策略、財務指導和前景以及為客戶、同事和股東創造長期價值的能力充滿信心。

Now, let me turn to Edmund for his thoughts on our financial results and outlook. Edmund?

現在，讓我請艾德蒙談談他對我們財務表現和前景的看法。埃德蒙？

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I joined Aon a little over three months ago. And I couldn't be more excited to be a part of this company, given the opportunities ahead of us. My confidence in the financial model, delivering organic revenue growth, margin expansion, and double-digit free cash flow over the long term has only increased.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我三個多月前加入怡安。考慮到我們面前的機遇，能夠成為這家公司的一員，我感到無比興奮。我對財務模式、長期內實現有機收入成長、利潤率擴張和兩位數自由現金流的信心只增不減。

In the immediate term, I'm pleased to be here delivering the third-quarter results. And before jumping into the detail, let me elevate what matters most.

就短期而言，我很高興能夠在這裡公佈第三季的業績。在深入討論細節之前，讓我先談談最重要的事情。

First, after a strong Q3, we're right on track to deliver a full-year 2024 in line with our objectives and guidance, including mid-single-digit-or-greater organic revenue growth, adjusted margin expansion, and free cash flow generation that allows us to de-lever while simultaneously returning $1 billion in capital to shareholders through share repurchases.

首先，在第三季表現強勁之後，我們預計將按照我們的目標和指導方針實現 2024 年全年業績，包括中個位數或更高的有機收入增長、調整後的利潤率擴張和自由現金流一代人讓我們能夠去槓桿化，同時透過股票回購向股東返還10 億美元資本。

Second, our organic revenue growth reached 7% in the third quarter. Importantly, this performance was strong across the enterprise, with organic revenue growth of 6% or higher in each of our solution lines. This is a direct result of executing our three-by-three plan and the investments that were making the drive top-line growth, beginning with our investment in hiring client-facing talent in specialty areas, expanding our client group to now nearly 450 clients, and further expanding our integrated risk data predictive analyzers across property, casualty, D&O, cyber, and health.

其次，第三季我們的有機收入成長達到7%。重要的是，整個企業的表現都很強勁，我們每個解決方案系列的有機收入成長了 6% 或更高。這是執行我們的三乘三計劃和投資的直接結果，這些投資推動了營收成長，首先是我們在專業領域僱用面向客戶的人才的投資，將我們的客戶群擴大到現在的近 450 名客戶，並進一步擴展我們在財產、傷亡、D&O、網路和健康領域的綜合風險數據預測分析器。

And finally, the investment thesis on NFP remains, as we're off to a strong start with NFP performing in line or better than the metrics that we measure in the business case. With five months of results since the acquisition, NFP's year-to-date organic revenue growth is strong.

最後，關於非農就業數據的投資論點仍然存在，因為我們有了一個良好的開端，非農就業數據的表現符合或優於我們在商業案例中衡量的指標。自收購以來五個月的業績顯示，NFP 年初至今的有機收入成長強勁。

Retention is better than last year on top of a solid recruiting pipeline. And the M&A middle-market growth engine is humming, having acquired $26 million in EBITDA year to date. These acquired firms are seeing value in our independent and connected model, connected to Aon content and capabilities, while maintaining an independent distribution and service model.

由於擁有穩固的招募管道，留存率比去年更好。併購中間市場的成長引擎正在蓬勃發展，今年迄今已獲得 2,600 萬美元的 EBITDA。這些被收購的公司看到了我們的獨立和互聯模式的價值，與怡安的內容和能力相關，同時保持獨立的分銷和服務模式。

Overall, we have momentum, and our continued execution of the three-by-three strategy in creating investment capacity and margin expansion by delivering on our restructuring saves, gives me a high level of confidence in delivering on our near- and long-term financial objectives, including a double-digit three-year CAGR and free cash flow from 2023 to 2026.

總體而言，我們有動力，並且我們繼續執行三乘三策略，透過實現重組節省來創造投資能力和利潤率擴張，這使我對實現我們的近期和長期財務目標充滿信心目標，包括2023 年至2026 年兩位數的三年複合年增長率和自由現金流。

I'll add one logistical note before turning to the results. You'll notice that we took the opportunity to add content with the intention of providing additional transparency and clarity into our performance and expectations, and to help you better understand the connection between our strategy and performance. You can expect that we'll have minor adjustments to refine our material over the next few calls to support greater engagement with our investors and our analysts.

在討論結果之前，我將新增一份後勤說明。您會注意到，我們藉此機會添加內容，旨在為我們的績效和期望提供額外的透明度和清晰度，並幫助您更好地了解我們的策略和績效之間的聯繫。您可以預期，我們將在接下來的幾次電話會議中進行細微調整，以完善我們的材料，以支持與投資者和分析師的更多接觸。

So now, turning to the third-quarter results and the financial summary on slide 6. You see that we delivered 7% organic revenue growth in the third quarter. Adjusted operating margin was 24.6%, up 30 basis points.

現在，我們來看看幻燈片 6 上的第三季業績和財務摘要。您會看到，我們第三季的有機收入成長了 7%。調整後營業利益率為 24.6%，上升 30 個基點。

And I'll remind you that we look at our margin expansion relative to a 2023 baseline that includes NFP. And when doing so, operating margin expanded 70 basis points in the quarter. Adjusted EPS was up 17% to $2.72. And finally, we generated $951 million in free cash flow, bringing our total through three quarters to $1.7 billion.

我要提醒您的是，我們會考慮相對於 2023 年基準（包括非農就業數據）的利潤率擴張。在此過程中，本季營業利潤率擴大了 70 個基點。調整後每股收益成長 17% 至 2.72 美元。最後，我們產生了 9.51 億美元的自由現金流，使我們三個季度的自由現金流總額達到 17 億美元。

Let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth on slide 8. Organic revenue growth of 7% in Q3 '24 was at a high end of our mid-single-digit-or-greater guidance range. Growth in commercial risk was again strong at 6%, with all other solution lines growing at or above 7%.

讓我們從幻燈片 8 上的有機收入成長開始詳細了解這些結果。2024 年第三季有機收入成長 7%，處於我們中個位數或更高指導範圍的高端。商業風險的成長再次強勁，達到 6%，所有其他解決方案系列的成長均達到或超過 7%。

In commercial risk, organic revenue growth was 6% in Q3 and reflected strength in our North American core P&C business, driven by net new business and strong retention, as well as double-digit growth in M&A services and continued strong performance in EMEA.

在商業風險方面，第三季的有機收入成長了6%，反映了我們的北美核心財產和意外傷害業務的實力，這得益於淨新業務和強勁的保留率，以及併購服務的兩位數成長和歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續強勁的業績。

Reinsurance, with 7% organic revenue growth in Q3, was led by a balanced contribution to growth from our treaty and facultative placements. It's worth noting that our outlook on the seasonally smaller fourth quarter is for low single-digit growth given lower [FAC] revenue, and the impact of growing over an elevated Q4 '23. We expect full-year organic growth to achieve our mid-single-digit-or-greater growth objective.

再保險第三季的有機收入成長了 7%，這主要得益於我們的條約和臨時安置對成長的平衡貢獻。值得注意的是，鑑於 [FAC] 收入較低，以及 23 年第四季成長較高的影響，我們對季節性較小的第四季的預期是低個位數成長。我們預計全年有機成長將實現中個位數或更高的成長目標。

Health solutions delivered 9% organic revenue growth, with double-digit growth in our international markets from new business and core health and benefits, and data analytics-driven sales in our talent business. The market demand environment continues to reflect increased health cost trends and positive impacts from enrollment levels. I'll also mention that in the fourth quarter, we'll be growing over an elevated Q4 '23.

健康解決方案實現了 9% 的有機收入成長，國際市場的新業務、核心健康和福利以及人才業務中數據分析驅動的銷售實現了兩位數的成長。市場需求環境持續反映出醫療成本增加的趨勢以及入學水準的正面影響。我還要提到的是，在第四季度，我們的成長將超過 23 年第四季的成長。

And finally, wealth solutions' organic revenue growth was 7%, driven by continued strong demand for pension risk transfer and regulatory changes across the UK and EMEA, and a positive contribution from NFP. And let me also provide some additional color on NFP.

最後，財富解決方案的有機收入成長了 7%，這得益於英國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區對退休金風險轉移和監管變化的持續強勁需求，以及非農業就業報告的積極貢獻。我還可以就非農就業數據提供一些額外的資訊。

NFP was accretive to commercial risk and wealth solutions, and delivered mid-single-digit growth in health. NFP and Aon are both producing mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, and NFP is performing in line with our business case.

非農就業數據增加了商業風險和財富解決方案，並在健康領域實現了中個位數成長。NFP 和 Aon 都實現了中個位數的有機收入成長，而 NFP 的表現與我們的業務案例相符。

Overall, organic revenue growth continues to be driven by net new business and strong retention. And I'll provide a little color on how net new business growth and market impact helped us deliver our 7% organic revenue growth.

總體而言，有機收入成長繼續受到淨新業務和強勁保留的推動。我將介紹淨新業務成長和市場影響如何幫助我們實現 7% 的有機收入成長。

As you think about the 7%, recurring new business from new logos and existing clients contributed 10 points to growth. And with continued high retention, net new business contributed 5 points to organic growth. The net market impact from growth and exposures and rate was 2 points. We saw flat rate impacts in reinsurance, with limited increases in rate benefits across commercial, health, and wealth.

想想這 7%，來自新商標和現有客戶的經常性新業務為成長貢獻了 10 個百分點。由於持續的高保留率，淨新業務為有機成長貢獻了 5 個百分點。成長、風險敞口和利率對市場的淨影響為 2 個百分點。我們看到了再保險中統一費率的影響，商業、健康和財富方面的費率福利增長有限。

I'll also pause here and note that we continue to make great progress on our priority talent acquisition, with continuing focus on hiring specialty talent in construction, energy, and health, as well as in our enterprise client group. We expect these new colleagues to season and contribute to organic growth within 12 to 18 months, which contributes to our mid-single-digit-or-better organic growth objective.

我還要在這裡暫停一下，並指出，我們在優先人才招募方面繼續取得巨大進展，繼續專注於招募建築、能源和健康以及企業客戶群的專業人才。我們預計這些新同事將在 12 至 18 個月內適應並為有機成長做出貢獻，這有助於實現我們中個位數或更好的有機成長目標。

And one final point on revenue, third-quarter fiduciary investment income was up 6% over last year to $85 million. And as a reminder, we do not include fiduciary investment income in our organic revenue growth calculation.

關於營收的最後一點是，第三季信託投資收入比去年成長 6%，達到 8,500 萬美元。提醒一下，我們的有機收入成長計算中不包括信託投資收入。

Of course, as interest rates decline, we expect an impact on income from fiduciary balances, which average $7.3 billion over the trailing 12 months. For modeling purposes, I'll remind you that a 100-basis-point impact on rates has a full-year impact of approximately $70 million on investment income. As interest rates decline, lower investment income does lower our margins. However, we still expect to drive adjusted operating margin expansion.

當然，隨著利率下降，我們預計信託餘額收入將受到影響，過去 12 個月信託餘額平均為 73 億美元。出於建模目的，我會提醒您，利率受到 100 個基點的影響，全年投資收益將受到約 7000 萬美元的影響。隨著利率下降，投資收入下降確實降低了我們的利潤率。然而，我們仍預期將推動調整後的營業利潤率擴張。

Additionally, I'll point out that the earnings impact is partially offset by lower interest expense on our term loan debt. The strength of our business model and our outlook for top- and bottom-line growth underpins our expectations that we will deliver double-digit free cash flow growth, irrespective of interest rate movements.

此外，我要指出的是，我們定期貸款債務利息支出的降低部分抵消了獲利影響。我們的業務模式優勢以及我們對營收和利潤成長的前景支撐著我們的預期，即無論利率變動如何，我們都將實現兩位數的自由現金流成長。

On slide 10, operating income was up 28% to $915 million. Adjusted operating margins were 24.6% in the third quarter and 30.8% year to date. For the quarter, margins were up 30 basis points. From our combined baseline with NFP, margins expanded 70 basis points in the quarter and year to date.

在投影片 10 中，營業收入成長了 28%，達到 9.15 億美元。第三季調整後營業利益率為 24.6%，年初至今為 30.8%。本季利潤率上升了 30 個基點。根據我們與 NFP 的合併基準，本季和今年迄今的利潤率擴大了 70 個基點。

Adjusted operating margin continued to benefit from the scale in our business, particularly in Aon business services or ABS; our continued portfolio management and shift to higher-margin businesses; as well as ongoing expense discipline; and importantly, the benefit from our restructuring initiative to accelerate our three-by-three plan. Specifically, restructuring savings in the third quarter was $25 million, resulting in $70 million year-to-date savings and 70 basis points of contribution to adjusted operating margins.

調整後的營業利潤率持續受益於我們的業務規模，特別是怡安商業服務或 ABS；我們持續的投資組合管理並轉向利潤率更高的業務；以及持續的費用紀律；重要的是，受益於我們的重組舉措，以加快我們的三乘三計劃。具體而言，第三季的重組節省為 2,500 萬美元，導致年初至今節省 7,000 萬美元，並為調整後的營業利潤貢獻了 70 個基點。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect $100 million of savings in 2024 and are well on track to achieve our stated goal of $350 million of run rate savings in 2026. Additionally, the momentum in ABS gives us confidence in continued margin expansion over the long term as we standardize our operations and integrate our platforms. We remain committed to driving full-year adjusted operating margin expansion in 2024 and over the long term from the NFP-adjusted 2023 baseline of 30.6.

展望未來，我們仍預計 2024 年可節省 1 億美元，並且有望實現 2026 年運行率節省 3.5 億美元的既定目標。此外，隨著我們標準化營運和整合平台，ABS 的勢頭使我們對長期利潤率持續擴張充滿信心。我們仍然致力於在 2024 年和長期內推動全年調整後營業利潤率在經非農就業數據調整後的 2023 年 30.6 的基準基礎上擴大。

Moving to interest, other income, and taxes on slide 11, interest expense of $213 million was up $94 million versus last year, reflecting $7 billion in higher debt driven by the NFP acquisition. We expect $210 million of interest expense in Q4. Other income was $54 million higher year over year as we divested non-core personal lines and real estate advisory assets. The result of our continued focus on portfolio management was a higher growth and higher-margin portfolio.

轉向幻燈片 11 上的利息、其他收入和稅收，利息支出為 2.13 億美元，比去年增加了 9,400 萬美元，反映出因收購 NFP 導致債務增加 70 億美元。我們預計第四季的利息支出為 2.1 億美元。由於我們剝離了非核心個人業務和房地產諮詢資產，其他收入比去年同期增加了 5,400 萬美元。我們持續關注投資組合管理的結果是更高的成長和更高的利潤投資組合。

And finally, the Q3 tax rate was 18%, with year-over-year increase driven by growth in higher-tax geographies, the unfavorable impact of discrete items, and policy changes across the globe. As we look forward, we expect to provide further color on 2025 tax rates during our year-end earnings call.

最後，第三季稅率為 18%，年成長是由高稅率地區的成長、離散項目的不利影響以及全球政策變化所推動的。展望未來，我們預計將在年終財報電話會議上提供有關 2025 年稅率的更多資訊。

Turning now to free cash flow. We generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow year to date, reflecting strong operating income growth and continued working capital improvements. Our free cash flow is being impacted by extraordinary items, including NFP transaction and integration charges, restructuring and legal settlement expenses previously communicated.

現在轉向自由現金流。今年迄今為止，我們產生了 17 億美元的自由現金流，反映出強勁的營業收入成長和持續的營運資本改善。我們的自由現金流受到特殊項目的影響，包括非農業就業報告交易和整合費用、先前溝通的重組和法律和解費用。

We have line of sight on these items and remain confident in underlying free cash flow growth. We continue to expect a double-digit, three-year CAGR on free cash flow from 2023 to 2026. And given our expectations on free cash flow, we are well positioned to pay down $2.1 billion in debt in 2024. As we look forward, we continue to have confidence in our ability to reduce our debt to even a leverage ratio from 3.9 to 2.8 to 3 times in Q4 2025.

我們關注這些項目，並對潛在的自由現金流成長保持信心。我們繼續預期 2023 年至 2026 年自由現金流的三年複合年增長率將達到兩位數。考慮到我們對自由現金流的預期，我們完全有能力在 2024 年償還 21 億美元的債務。展望未來，我們仍然對我們有能力在 2025 年第四季將債務降低至槓桿率從 3.9 倍至 2.8 倍至 3 倍充滿信心。

I'll also highlight that through the first nine months of the year, we have returned $1.2 billion in capital to shareholders through dividend and $800 million in share repurchases. We continue to estimate approximately $1 billion in share repurchases for 2024.

我還要強調的是，今年前 9 個月，我們已透過股利和 8 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 12 億美元的資本。我們繼續預期 2024 年的股票回購金額約為 10 億美元。

I'll end my prepared remarks on slide 13 with guidance and some concluding thoughts. With 7% organic growth and continued margin expansion, the third-quarter reflects continued momentum in our business. We are executing on our three-by-three plan and are pleased to see that execution come through in our results.

我將在投影片 13 上以指導和一些結論性想法結束我準備好的發言。第三季有機成長 7%，利潤率持續擴張，反映出我們業務的持續成長動能。我們正在執行我們的三乘三計劃，並很高興看到我們的執行結果得以實現。

We are reaffirming our full-year guidance for 2024, including mid-single-digit-or-greater organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion above our 2023 30.6% baseline, $100 million of savings in 2024 from our restructuring initiative, all contributing to double-digit free cash flow growth over '23 to '26.

我們重申2024 年全年指引，包括中個位數或更高的有機收入成長、調整後的營業利潤率擴張至2023 年30.6% 的基準之上、2024 年透過重組計劃節省1 億美元，所有這些都有助於23 年至 26 年間自由現金流實現兩位數成長。

Additionally, the investments that we're making to higher-priority areas highlights the strength of our financial model and our ability to balance sustainable organic growth with growth investments while driving margin expansion, and generating double-digit free cash flow growth over the long term. This financial model gives us confidence in meeting our '24 to 2026 objectives and in driving sustainable long-term growth.

此外，我們對更優先領域的投資凸顯了我們財務模式的優勢，以及我們在永續有機成長與成長投資之間取得平衡的能力，同時推動利潤率擴張，並在長期內產生兩位數的自由現金流增長。這種財務模式使我們有信心實現「24 至 2026 年」的目標並推動可持續的長期成長。

My prepared remarks gives you a sense of why I'm excited to be the CFO of Aon, working with my 60,000 colleagues to build on Aon's long track record of performance. We have a clear strategy for growth. We are executing on that strategy in making the investments in ABS, in middle market, and priority hires to sustain that growth on both the top and the bottom line. And as you can see in our 2024 third-quarter and year-to-date results, that execution is driving strong performance.

我準備好的發言讓您了解為什麼我很高興成為 Aon 的首席財務官，與我的 60,000 名同事一起努力，在 Aon 的長期業績記錄的基礎上再接再厲。我們有明確的成長策略。我們正在執行這項策略，對中間市場的 ABS 進行投資，並優先聘用人員，以維持收入和利潤的成長。正如您在我們的 2024 年第三季和年初至今的業績中所看到的，這種執行力正在推動強勁的業績。

So with that, let's jump into your questions. Melissa, I'll turn it back to you.

那麼，讓我們開始討論你的問題。梅麗莎，我會把它還給你。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

Hey, good morning. So very exciting to see the growth in commercial risk solutions. And Edmund mentioned that you brought in talent in construction, energy, health, enterprise. So maybe you could give a little color on those hirings. Are these high-level producers? Any sense of -- are they a net add to your producer staffing? And is there more to go in terms of hiring and net positive hiring?

嘿，早安。看到商業風險解決方案的成長非常令人興奮。艾德蒙提到，你們引進了建築、能源、健康、企業的人才。所以也許你可以對這些招募做一些說明。這些都是高水準的製作人嗎？有什麼感覺嗎——他們是對你的製作人隊伍的淨增加嗎？在招聘和淨正招聘方面還有更多進展嗎？

Andrew, I really appreciate the question. And listen, when we step back and think about the three-by-three plan and all that we've done to put this in place, with risk capital, human capital, and the support of Aon business services, again, delivered through an enterprise approach -- we took a moment to really step back and say, where can we add content and capability from a leadership standpoint that could truly be additive?

安德魯，我真的很感激這個問題。聽著，當我們退一步思考三乘三計劃以及我們為落實該計劃所做的一切時，我們再次透過風險資本、人力資本和怡安商業服務的支持，透過企業方法——我們花了一點時間真正退後一步說，從領導力的角度來看，我們可以在哪裡添加真正可以附加的內容和能力？

And we saw opportunities, as Edmund described very well, in construction, in energy, in health, in enterprise, and in a few other selected areas, very focused. And we've been very fortunate in bringing in some great talent. We'll continue to do that. It will develop over time, as we've described.

正如埃德蒙（Edmund）所描述的那樣，我們在建築、能源、健康、企業以及其他一些選定的領域中看到了機會，而且非常集中。我們非常幸運地引進了一些優秀的人才。我們將繼續這樣做。正如我們所描述的，它會隨著時間的推移而發展。

And over the next 12 to 18 months, we'll see it really start to show up in results. But it's really been a terrific add in some priority areas. But Eric, do you want to talk more specifically about some of these leaders?

在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，我們將看到它真正開始顯現結果。但它確實在一些優先領域帶來了巨大的進步。但是艾瑞克，你想更具體地談談其中一些領導人嗎？

Yeah, sure, Greg. I would say, just picking up on your commentary there, certainly, the ability to draw talent that exists in the industry over to our firm, a lot of it has to do with the investment in analytics and tools.

是的，當然，格雷格。我想說的是，只是聽聽你的評論，當然，吸引行業內現有人才到我們公司的能力，很大程度上與對分析和工具的投資有關。

That give these client leaders an opportunity to do more with their clients. So as you said, we're going to continue to make those investments in those priority areas where we see an opportunity to deliver real value to our clients.

這讓這些客戶領導者有機會與客戶一起做更多事情。正如您所說，我們將繼續在那些我們認為有機會為客戶提供真正價值的優先領域進行投資。

I also, though, don't want to lose the point about the inorganic investment in talent that we're making. Certainly, the addition of NFP, with their 8,000 colleagues, provides a significant volume of relationships in the marketplace.

不過，我也不想失去我們正在對人才進行無機投資的觀點。當然，NFP 及其 8,000 名同事的加入，在市場上提供了大量的關係。

That really is the underpinning of this independent and connected strategy, where we're trying to provide more capability, specialty expertise, like our construction capability or our healthcare capability, or et cetera, to those client bases.

這確實是這種獨立和互聯策略的基礎，我們正在努力向這些客戶群提供更多的能力、專業知識，例如我們的建築能力或我們的醫療保健能力等等。

So you're seeing both organic hiring. You're seeing inorganic hiring, and by the way, not just in the US we talk a lot about NFP. But certainly, acquisition we did in France, in the health space, it also gives us more capability there, too. So we're really excited about the new addition of talent. It merges well with our existing talent base and really excited about what the opportunity is for us in the future.

所以你會看到兩者都是有機招募。你會看到無機招聘，順便說一句，不僅在美國，我們還經常談論非農業就業數據。但當然，我們在法國的健康領域進行的收購也為我們提供了更多的能力。因此，我們對新加入的人才感到非常興奮。它與我們現有的人才基礎很好地融合，並且對我們未來的機會感到非常興奮。

And Andrew, the only thing I'd add to what Eric just said is -- I think you know well -- it takes some time for those priority hires to season. We think 12 to 18 months before you start to reach the peak levels of revenue.

安德魯，我對艾瑞克剛才所說的話唯一要補充的是——我想你很清楚——那些優先招募的人需要一些時間來適應。我們認為您需要 12 到 18 個月才能開始達到收入的峰值水平。

But we're comfortable -- when we look at the growth in these lines that Eric just mentioned, we're comfortable that the talent is at the quality level and contributing. But overall, that will contribute to our mid-single-digit-or-greater top-line growth level. So we continue to focus on this as a priority area for us.

但我們很滿意——當我們看到艾瑞克剛才提到的這些產品線的成長時，我們很滿意這些人才的品質水準和貢獻。但總體而言，這將有助於我們實現中個位數或更高的收入成長水準。因此，我們繼續將此作為我們的優先領域。

Yeah, that's really compelling. And also, as I looked at health solutions -- and you called out double-digit growth in EMEA, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America -- are these markets just not as mature for Aon? Is this a big opportunity that we can expect continued, potentially, even double-digit growth in the out-years?

是的，這確實很有說服力。而且，當我研究健康解決方案時——您指出歐洲、中東和非洲、亞洲、太平洋地區和拉丁美洲的兩位數增長——這些市場對怡安來說是否還不夠成熟？這是一個我們可以預期未來幾年持續、甚至有可能實現兩位數成長的巨大機會嗎？

Listen, again, Andrew, this is an area we've talked about before, which is a category we love. Health, when you think about it overall, is just an area of demand where clients are facing more and more every day. And it's true across all geographies.

安德魯，再聽一遍，這是我們之前討論過的一個領域，也是我們喜歡的一個類別。整體而言，健康只是客戶每天面臨的越來越多的需求領域。這在所有地區都是如此。

We've got uniquely strong positions across the world, and you're seeing that reflected. And I would emphasize the investment that Eric described before and that Edmund described in his comments around Aon business services. These analyzers, this capability, means that our colleagues can be more effective in what they do every day on behalf of clients, even the priority hires as they come in.

我們在全球擁有獨特的強勢地位，您已經看到了這一點。我要強調埃里克之前描述的投資以及埃德蒙在他關於怡安商業服務的評論中描述的投資。這些分析器和這種功能意味著我們的同事可以更有效地代表客戶每天做事，甚至是他們進來時的優先招募人員。

This is not about numbers for us. It's about quality and capability. And so we've got the leaders sort of in region, very locally -- local understanding plus a global capability they can bring to bear with these analytics. And that's why we see a space with high demand. And we have great capability to address it, which is why we see a lot of opportunity here.

對我們來說，這與數字無關。這是關於品質和能力的。因此，我們有一些區域性的、非常在地化的領導者——他們對本地的理解加上他們可以用來進行這些分析的全球能力。這就是為什麼我們看到一個需求量很大的空間。我們有很強的能力來解決這個問題，這就是為什麼我們在這裡看到很多機會。

Hey, Greg, I would just pile in on that. A couple of quick thoughts. One is we're continuing to move the logos globally. Clients sort of come to us looking for help.

嘿，格雷格，我只想補充一下。一些快速的想法。一是我們將繼續在全球範圍內轉移徽標。客戶向我們尋求協助。

And just to go back to the question around outside the US, there is growth around the US, we would say, in two or three different buckets. One is within some of these countries where there is nationalized health, think about the UK or the Netherlands, those systems are under pretty significant financial pressure. And you're seeing nascent private markets form. And so that creates a lot of need for insight around analytics, around program construction, et cetera.

回到美國以外的問題，我們可以說，美國各地都有兩到三個不同的成長點。一是在其中一些實行國有化醫療的國家中，想想英國或荷蘭，這些系統面臨相當大的財務壓力。你會看到新興的私人市場正在形成。因此，這就產生了對分析、程序建構等方面的洞察力的大量需求。

You're also seeing this global benefit wave where clients are trying to understand their global spend as they take care of their colleagues around the world and really looking to link together their strategy rather than just doing country by country by country. And so you've got, certainly at the upper end of the segment, these global clients that are trying to get a handle on everything in what they're spending around the world.

您還會看到這種全球福利浪潮，客戶在照顧世界各地的同事時試圖了解他們的全球支出，並真正希望將他們的策略聯繫在一起，而不僅僅是逐個國家進行。因此，當然是該細分市場的高端，這些全球客戶正試圖掌控他們在世界各地的支出的一切。

But you've also got specific markets outside the US that have, historically, been nationalized health. You see nascent forming private markets, which actually allow us to give clients really good insight as to strategies and help them execute for their own colleagues within countries.

但美國以外的特定市場在歷史上也被國有化。您會看到新興的私人市場，這實際上使我們能夠為客戶提供有關策略的真正深入的見解，並幫助他們為自己的國內同事執行。

Yeah. And I did call out the international markets, Andrew. Because I think as you think across international or the different solutions that we have, health is a fast-growing opportunity for us and we're taking advantage of, as Eric just talked about.

是的。我確實提到了國際市場，安德魯。因為我認為，正如你在國際上或我們擁有的不同解決方案中所思考的那樣，健康對我們來說是一個快速增長的機會，我們正在利用這一機會，正如埃里克剛才談到的那樣。

The diversity in our business is something that gives us confidence in the mid-single-digit-or-greater growth level. So you might see some solutions or markets growing at higher levels than the others. And it's that diversity that, I think, gives us confidence in the long-term sustainability of growing at those levels.

我們業務的多樣性使我們對中個位數或更高的成長水準充滿信心。因此，您可能會看到某些解決方案或市場的成長水準高於其他解決方案或市場。我認為，正是這種多樣性讓我們對這些水準的長期永續成長充滿信心。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning. First one I had is on free cash flow. It looks like some of the growth progress was coming in quicker than we would have expected. And I just wanted to see, is there anything abnormal in there or anything we should think about timing-wise headed into the end of the year?

嘿，早安。我的第一個目標是自由現金流。看起來一些成長進展比我們預期的要快。我只是想看看，是否有任何異常情況，或者我們應該在年底前考慮什麼時機？

Free cash flow is coming right in line with what we've expected. Like, first, the first thing to think about is our objective. And we think we're right on track to be at a double-digit level when we think about our $3.2 billion in 2023 and where we expect to end in 2026.

自由現金流與我們的預期完全一致。首先，首先要考慮的是我們的目標。考慮到 2023 年的 32 億美元以及預計 2026 年的目標，我們認為我們正處於兩位數水準。

We know this year is being impacted by two or three -- I called out extraordinary items, the NFP integration costs, the legal settlement costs impacting it, and the restructuring charges part of Aon United. There could be some quarterly timing and movement in those numbers between quarters.

我們知道今年受到兩三個因素的影響——我提到了特殊項目、非農就業數據整合成本、影響它的法律和解成本以及怡安聯合公司的重組費用。這些數字可能會出現一些季度時間表和季度之間的變化。

But you know we run this company as an annual company, and when I think about it, on a full-year basis, is right in line with what we expected. And most importantly, that's the thing that gives us confidence in being able to pay down the debt and to continue to have the type of capital return through both the dividends and the very important share repurchases that we've committed to for the year. So nothing out of the ordinary from our expectations on that.

但你知道，我們將這家公司作為一家年度公司來運營，當我考慮到這一點時，以全年為基礎，這完全符合我們的預期。最重要的是，這讓我們有信心償還債務，並繼續透過我們今年承諾的股息和非常重要的股票回購獲得資本回報。因此，我們對此的期望並沒有什麼異常。

Got it. And then the other thing I wanted to ask about is net new business. I mean, that sounded like a pretty strong result. Can you talk about some of the places you've seen the most success there, if we kind of dive down into the different businesses?

知道了。我想問的另一件事是淨新業務。我的意思是，這聽起來是一個相當強烈的結果。如果我們深入探討不同的業務，您能談談您在那裡看到的最成功的一些地方嗎？

Sure. Why don't I take a shot at that one, guys? Listen, I would say in the priority hiring areas, there's a reason why there are priority hiring areas. There's a lot of activity in that space, whether it's in construction or healthcare. And we're seeing that across the globe. So it's not just in sort of North America.

當然。夥計們，我為什麼不嘗試一下呢？聽著，我想說的是，在優先招募領域，優先招募領域是有原因的。該領域有很多活動，無論是建築業還是醫療保健業。我們在全球範圍內都看到了這一點。所以這不僅僅是在北美。

I would say if you step back and look across the segments, certainly the enterprise client space, which are our largest global clients, as they think about dealing with some of these big trends that are out there around weather and climate, around trade, around technology, around workforce, their needs are complicated.

我想說，如果你退後一步，看看各個細分市場，當然還有企業客戶領域，他們是我們最大的全球客戶，因為他們正在考慮處理圍繞天氣和氣候、貿易、環境等方面的一些大趨勢。

And so our ability to bring our analytics -- we talk a lot about these analyzers -- and give them real insight has really led to the opportunity to do more with them. So it's both existing clients doing more with them, as well as new clients that are new to the firm.

因此，我們提供分析的能力——我們談論了很多這些分析儀——並為他們提供真正的洞察力，這確實帶來了利用它們做更多事情的機會。因此，既有客戶與他們一起做更多的事情，也有新客戶對公司來說是新的。

But we're seeing it in priority areas, we're seeing it across the segments, and we're seeing it across the globe. So it was really a strong quarter for us all the way around.

但我們在優先領域、各個細分市場以及全球範圍內都看到了這種情況。所以這對我們來說確實是一個強勁的季度。

I would characterize it -- when you look at the history, Alex, I'd characterize it as normal course of business for us to drive10 points of growth from that new business and continue to have that strong retention. Those are the levers that drive the growth for Aon here, so nothing new.

我會描述它——當你回顧歷史時，亞歷克斯，我會把它描述為我們從新業務中推動 10 個百分點的增長並繼續保持強勁的保留率的正常業務過程。這些是推動怡安成長的槓桿，所以沒什麼新鮮的。

And as Eric just said, we're seeing it across these different segments and different countries. I think that will continue to be the key driver of growth for us on the top line.

正如艾瑞克剛才所說，我們在不同的細分市場和不同的國家都看到了這種情況。我認為這將繼續成為我們營收成長的關鍵驅動力。

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.

知道了。非常有幫助。謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on just the M&A and SPAC activity. I know you guys called out that there was double-digit growth within that business and commercial risk in the quarter. Where are we, I guess, compared to peak levels? And as those markets start to rebound, do you have a sense of how that could incrementally benefit commercial risk from here?

你好，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是關於併購和 SPAC 活動。我知道你們指出本季的業務和商業風險出現了兩位數的成長。我想，與峰值水平相比，我們處於什麼水平？隨著這些市場開始反彈，您是否知道這將如何逐漸使商業風險受益？

Elyse, appreciate the question. Just to start, just for context overall, as we said before, we love this space. It's a space we developed over time, we continue to invest behind. It's got a lot of derivative connections, and we've really developed it in the downturn.

伊莉斯，感謝這個問題。首先，就整體而言，正如我們之前所說，我們喜歡這個空間。這是我們隨著時間的推移而開發的一個空間，我們將繼續投資。它有很多衍生聯繫，我們確實在經濟低迷時期開發了它。

I would just, for context, just remind M&A volume, as you've heard on the investment banking calls, by the way, is still 13% below the 10-year average year to date. By the way, that's better than it was last year, which was much, much worse than that. So let's come back a bit. You're starting to see that show up. Edmund described that very, very well.

順便說一句，我只想提醒一下，正如您在投資銀行電話會議上聽到的那樣，併購交易量今年迄今仍比 10 年平均水平低 13%。順便說一下，這比去年好，去年比去年糟糕得多。讓我們回過頭來看看。你開始看到它的出現。埃德蒙對此描述得非常非常好。

But over time, the dry powder out there, as we all know, is substantial. And so our view is this will be an area of real client value that we can deliver and as such, will show up across commercial risk for us in a very positive way, but even beyond that, and the other solution lines as well. Because a lot of things get connected with M&A activity. So overall, we've made progress, as Edmund described very well, and we expect it to continue over time.

但眾所周知，隨著時間的推移，那裡的乾粉是大量的。因此，我們認為這將是我們可以提供的真正客戶價值領域，因此將以非常積極的方式為我們展現商業風險，但甚至除此之外，還有其他解決方案。因為很多事情都與併購活動有關。總的來說，我們已經取得了進展，正如埃德蒙所描述的那樣，我們預計這種進展會隨著時間的推移而持續下去。

Thanks. And then my second question is on tax. Edmund, I know you said that we would get into the 2025 tax discussion on the year-end call. But can you just help us think through the positive and negative factors, I guess, that you're considering relative to tax and as you kind of think about the update that you're going to give us in a few months?

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於稅收的。Edmund，我知道您說過我們將在年終電話會議上討論 2025 年稅務問題。但是，我想，您能否幫助我們思考一下您正在考慮的與稅收相關的積極和消極因素，以及您將在幾個月內向我們提供的最新資訊？

Yeah, look, I -- the first thing that I'd call out here, Elyse, is the fact that there's variability quarter to quarter. When you have a rate that's 21% -- 22% in Q1 and Q2, and then 18% in Q3, it gives you some sense of why we're very cautious about the exact guidance that we give on this item because there's variability in a quarter to quarter.

是的，聽著，我要在這裡指出的第一件事，Elyse，是每個季度都存在變化的事實。當第一季和第二季的比率為 21% - 22%，然後第三季為 18% 時，您就會明白為什麼我們對針對此專案提供的確切指導非常謹慎，因為存在可變性四分之一到四分之一。

Recently, I don't think the items that impact it year over year for us have changed. Before my time and even now, we see the growth in the higher-tax geographies as one driver of what happens to the tax rates. Two policy changes, certainly, are happening across the globe in different geographies right now.

最近，我認為逐年影響我們的因素沒有改變。在我任職之前甚至現在，我們都將高稅率地區的成長視為稅率變化的驅動因素之一。當然，目前全球不同地區正在發生兩項政策變化。

In this particular quarter -- to answer your question specifically, in this particular quarter, there was a positive discrete item last year during this time. That has an impact on the tax rate in Q3 here as well. I think the key point from my perspective is we have a tax rate that allows us to invest in the business.

在這個特定的季度——具體回答你的問題，在這個特定的季度，去年這段時間有一個積極的離散項目。這也對第三季的稅率產生影響。我認為從我的角度來看，關鍵點是我們有一個允許我們投資該業務的稅率。

So when we finalize -- we'll finalize fiscal year '24 over the next couple of months here. You'll get insight on that, and we'll give more insight on 2025 as we get into the Q4 call, both on the baseline tax and any discreet items that we're aware of at that time.

因此，當我們最終確定時，我們將在接下來的幾個月內最終確定 24 財年。您將對此有所了解，當我們進入第四季度電話會議時，我們將提供有關 2025 年的更多見解，包括基準稅和我們當時所了解的任何謹慎項目。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, good morning. Thank you for the color on unpacking some of the high-level components of the 7% organic. Just curious, would you be able or willing to share -- as organic growth has accelerated a bit year to date, has it come more so from the new business 10 points or from exposure maybe was lower than 2 points previously? I kind of assume the retention -- I think if I do the math, I'm backing the 95%. That's kind of more stable, but I could be wrong. Any color there would be helpful.

嘿，早安。感謝您對 7% 有機物的一些高級成分的拆包進行介紹。只是好奇，您是否能夠或願意分享——今年迄今為止，有機增長有所加快，是來自新業務的 10 個百分點，還是來自之前的暴露程度可能低於 2 個百分點？我有點假設保留率——我想如果我算一下，我支持 95%。這更穩定，但我可能是錯的。任何顏色都會有幫助。

I mean, you have it exactly right. I mean, you have it exactly right. Mike, that 5 points, that means you backed into the right number on retention. The growth is coming from existing -- from new business, from existing clients, selling more solutions, as Eric was just talking about earlier, and adding new logos, so new business from that, offset by strong retention above 90%. And it was strong in Q3, and the levels that you're talking about are largely on.

我的意思是，你說得完全正確。我的意思是，你說得完全正確。麥克，這 5 分，意味著你在留存率方面的投入是正確的。成長來自現有業務——來自新業務、現有客戶、銷售更多解決方案（正如埃里克之前談到的那樣），以及添加新徽標，因此新業務被超過 90% 的強勁保留所抵消。第三季表現強勁，您所說的水平很大程度上已經達到了。

The market impact is the thing that we control less of, the rate impact and the pricing. And that was only 2 points -- it was a 2-point contribution to the net new business to get us to that 7 points overall. So again, I think that's in line with what the history has been. And what we expect is our efforts are the drivers of growth moving forward here.

市場影響是我們控制較少的事情，即利率影響和定價。這只是 2 分——正是對淨新業務的 2 分貢獻才使我們整體達到了 7 分。再說一遍，我認為這與歷史是一致的。我們期望我們的努力成為這裡前進的成長動力。

Okay, got it. That 2 points isn't too meaningfully different than kind of historical. Okay, got it.

好的，明白了。這兩點與歷史上的兩點並沒有太大的不同。好的，明白了。

Yeah, it's in line.

是的，已經排隊了

Okay. And maybe just switching gears, curious on the NFP acquisition, that clearly going well. At the time of the deal was announced, you did talk about potential for some fairly material revenue synergies. I think in some investors' minds, revenue synergies are a lot of hard work.

好的。也許只是換個方向，對非農就業數據的收購感到好奇，這顯然進展順利。在宣布交易時，您確實談到了一些相當實質的收入協同效應的潛力。我認為在一些投資者看來，收入綜效是一項艱鉅的工作。

Just curious if you think you'll be updating us on those going forward, or any comments you'd like to make about revenue synergies?

只是好奇您是否認為您會向我們通報未來的最新情況，或者您想對收入協同效應發表任何評論？

It's a great question because it's clearly a focus of ours. It's clearly a focus of ours, for sure. Five months in Q3, the performance right in line with or better than the business case. And mid-single digit in a quarter, accretive to commercial, accretive to wealth.

這是一個很好的問題，因為它顯然是我們關注的焦點。當然，這顯然是我們的重點。第三季五個月的表現符合或優於業務案例。四分之一內實現中個位數成長，促進商業成長，促進財富成長。

As I think about the four financial objectives that we put out there, revenue synergies and OpEx was one of them. And Eric can jump in here, but we talk about the cross-sell that's going to NFP and coming from NFP. I feel very good about our expectations of $175 million in 2026 on the OpEx synergies, of $60 million by 2026 as well.

當我想到我們提出的四個財務目標時，收入綜效和營運支出就是其中之一。艾瑞克（Eric）可以在這裡插話，但我們討論的是非農就業數據和來自非農就業數據的交叉銷售。我對 2026 年營運支出綜效預計達到 1.75 億美元和 2026 年 6,000 萬美元感到非常滿意。

I talked about in line or better, and what I'd point to there is the EPS accretion as we think about 2025. And we talked about it being neutral during that time, and I think we're tracking to be better than that. So we'll definitely give updates on those numbers as well as the free cash flow and the M&A performance that's happening in NFP as well. But Eric, I don't know if you want to add any color on that (multiple speakers) --

我談到了一致或更好，我想指出的是我們對 2025 年的每股盈餘成長。我們在那段時間談到了它是中立的，我認為我們正在追蹤比這更好的事情。因此，我們肯定會提供這些數字以及自由現金流和非農就業報告中發生的併​​購績效的最新資訊。但是埃里克，我不知道你是否想為此添加任何顏色（多位發言者）——

Sure, yeah. Let me add a little bit of color on it. I think the -- so a couple of ways I would approach this. The independent and connected philosophy, when we were talking to NFP about the opportunity to become part of Aon, was really about using those 8,000 people we talked about on that talent question, around how we can actually deliver more capability for each other.

當然，是的。讓我在上面添加一點顏色。我認為——所以我會採取幾種方法來解決這個問題。當我們與 NFP 談論成為 Aon 一部分的機會時，獨立和互聯的理念實際上是關於利用我們在人才問題上談到的 8,000 名員工，圍繞我們如何真正為彼此提供更多能力。

And we are really seeing, whether it's an NFP client relationship that needs additional subject matter expertise, whether it's trade credit or transaction services or D&O or what have you, or the CyQu example that Greg used. So the ability to partner relationships and expertise where we've already got a business relationship, we are really seeing that gather momentum. And that's just in the risk side.

我們確實看到，無論是 NFP 客戶關係需要額外的主題專業知識，無論是貿易信貸、交易服務、D&O 或其他什麼，還是 Greg 使用的 CyQu 範例。因此，在我們已經建立業務關係的情況下，建立合作夥伴關係和專業知識的能力，我們確實看到這種勢頭正在增強。這只是風險方面。

On the health side, it's very similar. Our health analyzer being able to bring tools to their clients, being able to bring the pharmacy benefits, being able to bring the global connectivity. So we also were very conservative in how we looked at revenue synergies, recognizing that those are really hard to pull off.

在健康方面，情況非常相似。我們的健康分析儀能為客戶帶來工具，能夠帶來藥局優勢，能夠帶來全球連結。因此，我們在看待收入協同效應方面也非常保守，因為我們認識到這些協同效應確實很難實現。

But we thought that with this independent and connected strategy, our ability to actually bring that capability together, it's an education process. And I think as Edmund said, we're five months into this. And our ability to sort of showcase Aon capability, understand NFP relationships, and really begin to work together towards driving to a client value.

但我們認為，透過這種獨立且相互關聯的策略，我們能夠真正將這些能力結合在一起，這是一個教育過程。我認為正如埃德蒙所說，我們已經進行了五個月了。我們有能力展現怡安的能力，了解非農就業關係，並真正開始共同努力實現客戶價值。

One of our hypotheses going into this was the mid-market segment is more risky and more complicated across risk, health, and wealth. And our ability to bring that talent into that segment in a way that that segment can digest and use it was one of the key aspects of why we wanted to partner up with NFP. And so I do think that opportunity is starting to bear fruit for us as we go down the road.

我們對此的假設之一是，中端市場的風險更大，在風險、健康和財富方面也更複雜。我們能夠以該細分市場能夠消化和使用的方式將這些人才引入該細分市場，這是我們希望與 NFP 合作的關鍵方面之一。因此，我確實認為，隨著我們的前進，機會已經開始為我們帶來成果。

And then the other piece I would offer is certainly our ability -- when we go into the marketplace, whether it's commission rate standardization, how we actually bring all the premium volume on the risk side into the market, is also -- is a concrete example of how sort of two are better than one in that example.

然後我要提供的另一部分當然是我們的能力 - 當我們進入市場時，無論是佣金率標準化，還是我們如何將風險方面的所有溢價量實際帶入市場 - 也是一個具體的舉例說明在該示例中兩個如何比一個更好。

And it's hard not to pile on with NFP, just given the progress that the teams have made jointly. But listen, fundamentally, this is demand. We saw huge demand and opportunity in the middle market of all the issues that Eric just described. And our ability to actually bring content through what is an incredibly strong set of client relationships that NFP brings to the table, they're really exceptional. And that's really the combination.

考慮到各團隊共同取得的進展，我們很難不去關注 NFP。但聽著，從根本上來說，這是需求。我們看到了埃里克剛才描述的所有問題在中間市場的巨大需求和機會。我們有能力透過 NFP 帶來的一組極其強大的客戶關係來實際提供內容，它們真的非常出色。這就是真正的組合。

The last piece I just would highlight -- and we mentioned it in the opening comments -- is not just in the day-to-day businesses that currently exist. If you think about the M&A pipeline, independent and connected has real meaningful value there in terms of all the operating flexibility that we're describing in independent and connected with additional capability. And that's also actually showing up in talent and in hires, who want to come be part of it.

我要強調的最後一點——我們在開場評論中提到了這一點——不僅僅存在於當前存在的日常業務中。如果您考慮併購管道，那麼就我們在獨立和連接附加功能中描述的所有營運靈活性而言，獨立和連接具有真正有意義的價值。這其實也體現在人才和員工身上，他們希望成為其中的一部分。

So as Edmund said, it's five months. We run everything a piece at a time, a step at a time. But it's really been a good start to the process, and we're more excited than ever.

正如埃德蒙所說，這是五個月。我們一次一點、一步一步地運行所有事情。但這確實是整個過程的良好開端，我們比以往任何時候都更加興奮。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. First, just had a question on organic growth and the contribution of NFP. I think, Greg, you mentioned that growth would have been consistent with NFP. I think you said the same thing last quarter as well, which, I guess, is a positive for your legacy business.

嗨，早安。首先，我有一個關於有機成長和非農業就業的貢獻的問題。我想，格雷格，你提到成長將與非農業就業數據保持一致。我認為您上個季度也說了同樣的話，我想這對您的傳統業務是積極的。

But I would have assumed with the economic economy being fairly strong and then NFP being part of a larger organization, that that business would be growing a little bit faster. But maybe you could sort of unpack that for us.

但我會假設，隨著經濟相當強勁，然後 NFP 成為更大組織的一部分，該業務的成長速度會更快一些。但也許你可以為我們解壓縮。

I think -- Greg, you should pile on. But I think it simply comes back to we're five months in. As the revenue synergies come to fruition, what you'll have is the baseline growth, which, I think, is strong at mid-single-digit levels, in line with what we have at Aon, which is what you're referencing from Greg's earlier comments. As the revenue synergies start to come through, I think you'll see higher levels of growth.

我想——格雷格，你應該繼續努力。但我認為這只是回到我們五個月以來的情況。隨著收入協同效應的實現，您將獲得基線增長，我認為，該增長在中個位數水平上強勁，與我們在怡安的情況一致，這就是您所引用的格雷格之前的評論。隨著收入協同效應開始顯現，我認為您將看到更高水準的成長。

And as the acquisition -- we have an objective of $50 million to 60 million in earnings and EBITDA from the acquisition that NFP does, and that comes online as well. That will accelerate revenue growth as well. So it's those -- I think about it in those three components, the baseline growth, what comes from revenue synergies, and then what comes from the acquisition as well. And that's what we feel like we're right on track to be able to deliver.

作為此次收購，我們的目標是從 NF​​P 進行的收購中獲得 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的收入和 EBITDA，而這也是線上收購。這也將加速收入成長。所以就是這些——我從這三個組成部分來思考，基線成長、收入綜效帶來的內容，以及收購帶來的內容。這就是我們認為我們已經走上實現目標的正確軌道。

And I'd only add, too, listen, we -- you get a quarter of progress, meaningful progress. We just posted for the overall Aon term, 7% organic growth. That's improvement and progression throughout the year. So that's -- and as you know, NFP is five months in, and it's an important, but relatively smaller part.

我也只想補充一點，聽著，我們──你取得了四分之一的進展，有意義的進展。我們剛剛發布了怡安整體有機成長 7% 的數據。這是全年的改進和進步。如您所知，NFP 已經發布五個月了，這是一個重要但相對較小的部分。

Obviously, that's driven by core Aon, and then it was accretive with NFP. So from our standpoint, this is a really good formula. But you start, as you described, with the strength of Aon, the fundamental strength of Aon across all solution lines, and then we add the capability that Edmund and Eric have just described.

顯然，這是由核心怡安集團推動的，然後又隨著非農就業數據的成長而成長。所以從我們的角度來看，這是一個非常好的公式。但是，正如您所描述的，您首先要利用 Aon 的優勢，即 Aon 在所有解決方案系列中的基本優勢，然後我們添加 Edmund 和 Eric 剛剛描述的功能。

So, again, we're feeling very good about progression and really reinforcing the thesis, mid-single-digit or greater, improved margins, and double-digit free cash flow growth over the long term. So for us, you just saw a quarter of progress, and then you saw NFP additive to that thesis.

因此，我們再次對進展感到非常滿意，並真正強化了這一論點，從長遠來看，中個位數或更高、利潤率提高以及兩位數的自由現金流成長。所以對我們來說，你只看到了四分之一的進展，然後你看到非農就業數據對論文的補充。

Okay. And then just following up on margins, you've had steady margin expansion over time. How should we think about margins improving going forward, especially if a fiduciary investment income becomes a headwind? There is an offset you mentioned from lower floating rate debt. But should we assume that margin expansion would slow, or would you control discretionary spending or other items as well?

好的。然後，只要跟進利潤率，隨著時間的推移，你的利潤率就會穩定成長。我們應該如何看待未來利潤率的改善，特別是如果信託投資收入成為阻力？您提到較低的浮動利率債務有一定的抵銷作用。但我們是否應該假設利潤率擴張會放緩，或者您也會控制可自由支配支出或其他項目？

Well, I think the short answer to the question is that we expect continued margin expansion here. But I'll actually start with the point that you made as well, which is we have this long history of margin expansion. I think there was a page in the release that showed over the last decade, 100 basis points of margin expansion. That has continued in the Q3 and year to date with 70 -- at 70 basis points for both of those time periods.

嗯，我認為這個問題的簡短答案是我們預計利潤率將持續擴張。但我實際上將從您提出的觀點開始，即我們有著悠久的利潤擴張歷史。我認為新聞稿中有一頁顯示了過去十年利潤率擴張了 100 個基點。第三季和今年迄今為止，這種情況一直持續到 70——這兩個時期都是 70 個基點。

That piece is largely driven after you net everything in and out. That's largely driven by the restructuring that we have. But we think it will continue moving forward. Because, primarily, of ABS, number one -- the scale that we get in that business, as I said earlier, standardize the operations and integrate the platforms. Number one, there's a long runway to drive margin expansion from that.

這部分很大程度上是在你將所有東西輸入和輸出之後驅動的。這很大程度上是由我們的重組所推動的。但我們認為它將繼續向前發展。因為，首先，對於 ABS，我們在該業務中獲得的規模，正如我之前所說，標準化了營運並整合了平台。第一，推動利潤率擴張還有很長的路要走。

But also the portfolio management that we have, we're active with that. That continues to drive margin expansion for us, and then just the continued expense discipline. Fiduciary investment income, call it less than 20 basis points is our estimate this year in terms of its contribution to margin expansion. It's one of the levers that we use to create investment capacity and drive margin expansion. So we think, despite that sort of going away, that we'll continue to be able to have it.

而且我們也積極進行投資組合管理。這繼續推動我們的利潤率擴張，然後是持續的支出紀律。我們預計今年信託投資收入對利潤率擴張的貢獻將低於 20 個基點。這是我們用來創造投資能力和推動利潤擴張的槓桿之一。所以我們認為，儘管這種情況消失了，但我們將繼續擁有它。

And for us, it really isn't margin expansion for the sake of margin expansion. What we want to do is create investment capacity to invest in ABS, to invest in the priority hires that Eric was just talking about earlier. And we think our financial model allows us to create that capacity and still deliver margin expansion, which allows us to drive the double-digit free cash flow that we're focused on.

對我們來說，這確實不是為了擴大利潤而擴大利潤。我們想要做的是建立投資能力來投資 ABS，投資於艾瑞克剛才談到的優先員工。我們認為我們的財務模式使我們能夠創造這種能力並仍然實現利潤率擴張，這使我們能夠推動我們所關注的兩位數的自由現金流。

Just a punchline on that, Jimmy. Listen, again, Edmund's point, last 12 years, we've done 100 basis points a year -- last 12 years, a year. And there were times there was zero fiduciary income, zero sort of in the context of that.

只是一個妙語，吉米。再次聽聽艾德蒙的觀點，過去 12 年，我們每年上漲 100 個基點——過去 12 年，一年。有時信託收入為零，在這種情況下可以說是零。

And we didn't have risk capital. We didn't have human capital in its current construct. We didn't have Aon business services, nor was enterprise client at the state it's in, nor had we invested and been in the process as we are with a three-by-three plan over '24, '25, and '26, of investing a $1 billion into strengthening and accelerating that.

而且我們沒有風險資本。我們目前的結構中沒有人力資本。我們沒有怡安商業服務，也沒有處於其所處狀態的企業客戶，我們也沒有像我們在 24 年、25 年和 26 年制定的三乘三計劃那樣進行投資和參與這一過程，投資10 億美元來加強和加速這一進程。

So for us, we think there's lots of momentum, but lots more to come that shows up top line and margin. And again, as we reflect on margin, it's not a zero-sum game. When we add more value to clients, we have more capability to clients, we're creating more value. And so in the context of that, our view is we have the capacity to invest back into the business as I've described, and the capacity to improve margin from an operating and efficiency standpoint.

因此，對我們來說，我們認為有很大的動力，但未來將有更多的動力可以體現出營收和利潤。再一次，當我們反思利潤時，這不是一場零和遊戲。當我們為客戶增加更多價值時，我們就為客戶提供了更多能力，我們就創造了更多價值。因此，在這種情況下，我們的觀點是，我們有能力重新投資於我所描述的業務，並且有能力從營運和效率的角度提高利潤率。

And you're seeing that play out exactly as we had intended. And we have a long way to go, and we're excited about so far the distance traveled. But we're looking forward to building momentum through our three-by-three plan and exiting 2026 with even more momentum than we had coming in.

你看到的結果完全符合我們的預期。我們還有很長的路要走，我們對所走過的距離感到興奮。但我們期待透過我們的三乘三計劃來積累動力，並以比進來時更大的動力結束 2026 年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Grace Carter, Bank of America.

格蕾絲·卡特，美國銀行。

Hi, everyone. I think you all said that NFP was accretive to organic growth and commercial risk and wealth this quarter. Sorry if I missed this earlier, but would it be possible to quantify that impact?

大家好。我想你們都說過非農就業報告促進了本季的有機成長以及商業風險和財富。抱歉，如果我之前錯過了這一點，但是可以量化這種影響嗎？

Good morning, Grace, first of all. Yeah, look, I think it's important just to start with the fact that it is a new acquisition. And I appreciate the fact that folks want to parse out that business. It's important, though, for us that we think about our overall Aon United strategy. We intend to include that in our solution. It's included in our solution line numbers and our overall growth.

首先，早安，格蕾絲。是的，你看，我認為重要的是從它是一項新收購這一事實開始。我很欣賞人們想要解析這項業務。不過，對我們來說，重要的是我們要考慮怡安聯合的整體策略。我們打算將其納入我們的解決方案中。它包含在我們的解決方案產品線數量和整體成長中。

Since it's early, we are parsing it out right now. And it added less than 50 basis points to any of the solutions that we -- in terms of contribution -- to any of the solution growth that we've had. Again, it was positive to commercial risk. It was positive accretion to wealth, with still strong single-digit growth in -- mid-single-digit growth in health as well. So we feel very good about the performance thus far. I think that's what (multiple speakers) --

由於時間還早，我們現在正在解析它。就貢獻而言，它為我們所擁有的任何解決方案的成長增加了不到 50 個基點。這再次對商業風險產生了正面影響。這是財富的正面成長，健康領域也實現了中等個位數的強勁成長。所以我們對迄今為止的表現感覺非常好。我想就是這樣（多位發言者）——

Hey, Edmund, maybe one pile-on comment on this one, is that when we went into this with the independent and connected model, the idea was not to spend a whole lot of time figuring out what bucket does the revenue fall in.

嘿，埃德蒙，也許對此的一大堆評論是，當我們採用獨立和互聯模型時，我們的想法並不是花費大量時間來弄清楚收入屬於哪個類別。

So when we work on a client opportunity with an NFP producer and an Aon capability, we're not really focused on whether X belongs in NFP or Y belongs in Aon. And so the opportunity to kind of keep it separate, we really didn't want to do that. Because we felt that culturally and business opportunity-wise, it was more important to focus on just bring the capability, win the business, do the client work. And so the ability to kind of really parse it that way becomes more difficult over time as the teams really connect.

因此，當我們與 NFP 生產商和 Aon 能力一起開發客戶機會時，我們並不是真正關注 X 屬於 NFP 還是 Y 屬於 Aon。因此，有機會將其分開，我們真的不想這樣做。因為我們認為，從文化和商業機會的角度來看，更重要的是專注於帶來能力、贏得業務、為客戶服務。因此，隨著時間的推移，隨著團隊真正聯繫起來，以這種方式真正解析它的能力變得更加困難。

Thank you. And I guess, looking at health and wealth, could you remind us of the mix of offerings in those segments that might fall under the discretionary bucket versus the more defensive bucket, and whether the addition of NFP has noticeably impacted that mix going forward or not?

謝謝。我想，在健康和財富方面，您能否提醒我們這些細分市場中可能屬於可自由支配類別與更具防禦性類別的產品組合，以及非農就業數據的增加是否明顯影響了未來的這種組合？

Yeah, I'll start, and then Eric can add a couple of pieces of color commentary here as well. Listen, overall, this business on the health side and on the wealth side, like our commercial risk business and our reinsurance business as well, are very high-retention businesses. And it really is universal across the board.

是的，我先開始，然後艾瑞克也可以在這裡添加一些色彩評論。聽著，總的來說，健康方面和財富方面的業務，就像我們的商業風險業務和再保險業務一樣，都是非常高保留率的業務。它確實是全面通用的。

There are, certainly, discrete areas where we provide advice on a project basis. But net-net, these are very, very retentive businesses across the board. And you've seen us benefit from that. And especially, in areas like in health, where we're adding new logos. We add new logos.

當然，我們在專案的基礎上為一些離散的領域提供建議。但總的來說，這些都是非常非常具有保留性的業務。您已經看到我們從中受益。特別是在健康等領域，我們正在添加新徽標。我們新增徽標。

We keep new logos for a long time. But our ability to add them over the last 18 months has been exceptional. So the characteristics here are absolutely fantastic, demand profile very, very good, and the retention exceptional.

我們長期保留新標誌。但我們在過去 18 個月內添加這些內容的能力非常出色。所以這裡的特色絕對是非常棒的，需求狀況非常非常好，而且保留率也非常高。

Yeah, Greg, maybe the only thing I would add when you think about the wealth business in particular, with the pensionary actuarial work around defined benefit plans, that work has to happen each year. And there is significant regulatory change that does create bespoke projects as time goes by.

是的，格雷格，當你特別考慮財富業務時，也許我唯一要補充的是，圍繞固定福利計劃進行退休金精算工作，這項工作每年都必須進行。隨著時間的推移，重大的監管變化確實會創造出客製化專案。

Those, theoretically, could be discretionary. But with the regulatory changes that continue to happen, whether it's global minimum pensions in the UK, similar work in the Netherlands, some work in the US, as the rules change and the plans themselves have to adapt to them, it just creates project work that does seemingly recur each year.

從理論上講，這些可以是酌情決定的。但隨著監管變化不斷發生，無論是英國的全球最低養老金，荷蘭的類似工作，還是美國的一些工作，隨著規則的變化和計劃本身必須適應它們，它只會創造項目工作這種情況似乎每年都會發生。

And then maybe on the health side, Greg, you said it well. I think the core health and benefit offering, whether it's the pharmacy work and even the talent work around salary transparency, there's just a lot of regulatory framework work that creates opportunity for us that, theoretically, is discretionary. But honestly, as it happens each year, it tends to repeat.

也許在健康方面，格雷格，你說得很好。我認為核心的健康和福利服務，無論是藥房工作，甚至是圍繞薪資透明度的人才工作，都有很多監管框架工作為我們創造了機會，從理論上講，這些工作是可自由裁量的。但老實說，這種情況每年都會發生，而且往往會重演。

And then you asked about NFP, and all I would highlight is this is a group. As Eric said, 8,000 colleagues who've come to be part of Aon, I'm so excited to have them.

然後你問非農就業數據，我要強調的是這是一個群體。正如艾瑞克所說，8,000 名同事加入了怡安，我很高興能擁有他們。

But they bring great client relationships and extraordinary content and insight in health and benefits and in wealth. So on both pieces, it's not just accretive performance; it's accretive content. And it's really going both ways. We're bringing content to NFP and NFP back to Aon. So positive from our perspective.

但它們帶來了良好的客戶關係以及關於健康、福祉和財富的非凡內容和洞察力。因此，在這兩件作品中，這不僅是性能的提升，更是性能的提升。這是增值內容。這確實是雙向的。我們將把 NFP 的內容帶回怡安 (Aon)。從我們的角度來看非常積極。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning. Edmund, I think you mentioned that you guys have acquired $26 million in terms of EBITDA through the middle market. So that's a little bit below the $45 million to $60 million that you guys have targeted for the year. Could you just comment on the achievability of that target?

謝謝。早安.Edmund，我想你提到你們透過中間市場獲得了 2600 萬美元的 EBITDA。因此，這略低於你們今年設定的 4,500 萬至 6,000 萬美元的目標。您能否簡單評價一下該目標的可實現性？

I was mentioning to the team earlier that I'm so close to the NFP corporate development team over there. I am more worried about us going over the number in terms of spending and capital deployment than coming under the number right now.

我之前向團隊提到過，我與那裡的 NFP 企業開發團隊非常接近。我更擔心我們在支出和資本部署方面超過這個數字，而不是現在低於這個數字。

The pipeline is rich. And hopefully, you picked up on Eric's comment, and maybe you should emphasize it, Eric. This independent and connected strategy and how it really is attractive to others out there in the market is driving a big pipeline of opportunities.

管道豐富。希望您能注意到埃里克的評論，也許您應該強調一下，埃里克。這種獨立且相互關聯的策略以及它對市場上其他人的真正吸引力正在推動大量機會的湧現。

So $26 million in EBITDA year to date, when I look at that pipeline. And whether it all happens in 2024, which I think we're confident in, or if some spills over into 2025, I think we're right in line with the objectives that we have on the M&A front.

當我查看該管道時，今年迄今為止的 EBITDA 為 2600 萬美元。無論這一切發生在 2024 年（我認為我們對此充滿信心），還是如果其中一些溢出到 2025 年，我認為我們都符合我們在併購方面的目標。

Great. That's helpful. And then, Edmund, I really appreciate the detail you gave in terms of net new as well as the market impact for the total company. Is there any way you could share that same detail for the commercial risk segment specifically?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，埃德蒙，我非常感謝您在淨新增業務以及對整個公司的市場影響方面提供的詳細資訊。您是否可以透過任何方式專門分享商業風險領域的相同細節？

The thing about it -- you heard me mention in the beginning of my comments that we'll think about sharing more information as we move forward. So we'll see exactly what it is.

事情是這樣的——你聽到我在評論的開頭提到，我們將考慮在前進的過程中分享更多。所以我們會確切地看到它是什麼。

The numbers are actually quite similar when you look across our solution lines in terms of contribution from net new business and retention together versus market impact, except in the areas like wealth or health, where there's this piece that Eric was just talking about, where there's advisory and the opportunity to be able to articulate value and drive benefit that our customers find valuable. And we change sort of the composition of that growth.

當您查看我們的解決方案系列時，從淨新業務的貢獻和保留率與市場影響的角度來看，這些數字實際上非常相似，除了財富或健康等領域，埃里克剛才談到了這一點，其中有諮詢以及能夠闡明價值並推動客戶認為有價值的利益的機會。我們改變了成長的組成。

Outside of that, it is quite similar across the different solution lines. And we're working through exactly what we're able to share and disclose moving forward on that.

除此之外，不同的解決方案系列都非常相似。我們正在研究我們能夠分享和揭露的內容，以推動這一進程。

Great, thanks. Looking forward to it.

太好了，謝謝。期待它。

Dean Criscitiello, KBW.

迪恩·克里西蒂洛 (Dean Criscitiello)，KBW。

Hi. You guys noted that aggregate pricing was flat this quarter. But I was curious if there were any differences between the middle market and larger accounts, and if you guys had any assumptions going forward on pricing.

你好。你們注意到本季的總定價持平。但我很好奇中型市場和大型客戶之間是否有任何差異，以及你們對未來的定價是否有任何假設。

Why don't I take that one, guys? Listen, I think -- and I think I've said it before, but I think it's always worth sort of saying where the pricing actually fits into the work that we do.

夥計們，我為什麼不拿那個？聽著，我想——我想我以前已經說過了，但我認為總是值得說一下定價實際上適合我們所做的工作。

So we first start with our clients around how do we actually identify and help them understand what risk they have as a business, And then we actually think through with them, what are your options to manage the risk, whether it's to finance it yourself, whether it's these captives that we've talked about in the past.

因此，我們首先從我們的客戶開始，圍繞我們如何真正識別並幫助他們了解他們作為一個企業所面臨的風險，然後我們與他們一起真正思考，你有哪些選擇來管理風險，是否要自己融資，是否就是我們過去談論過的這些俘虜。

And then ultimately, if you decide to transfer the volatility, how are you going to do that? And as you sort of ask with the segments, I would say, there's multiple markets out there, whether it's -- if the question was US or whether it's outside the US and Latin America and Europe and Asia, et cetera. And then there's industry bent, and then there is segment bent.

最終，如果你決定轉移波動性，你會如何做？當你問這些細分市場時，我會說，那裡有多個市場，無論問題是在美國，還是在美國、拉丁美洲、歐洲和亞洲等地區之外。然後是行業傾向，然後是細分市場。

So you get a variety of different market approaches based on what the risks are of the individual clients. But if I were to bucket it for you, I would say, on a property basis. I would say, for those clients that deserve to see premium decreases based on their risk exposure, we are seeing that happen, and we continue to expect that.

因此，您可以根據各個客戶的風險採取各種不同的市場方法。但如果我要為你計算的話，我會說，以財產為基礎。我想說，對於那些應該根據其風險敞口看到保費下降的客戶，我們正在看到這種情況發生，並且我們繼續期望這種情況發生。

I think casualty, especially in North America -- and this is up and down the segments -- continues to see pressure, whether it's because of increased loss costs, social inflation, things that you know well about, is driving pricing increases and a sort of restriction of appetite from the insurers.

我認為傷亡人員，特別是在北美——這是各個細分市場的上下——繼續面臨壓力，無論是因為損失成本增加、社會通貨膨脹，還是眾所周知的事情，都在推動價格上漲等等。公司的胃口受到限制。

And then there's sort of bucket called specialty casualty between D&O, cyber, that type of thing. We're continuing to see a surplus of capital that's in that space. And so opportunities for clients to really obtain some premium relief for their different risks.

然後，在 D&O、網路等領域之間存在一種稱為特種傷亡的類別。我們繼續看到該領域的資本過剩。因此，客戶有機會真正獲得不同風險的保費減免。

But listen, there is ultimately capital in all the segments. And so we do see an opportunity for clients, whether you're a small client, a mid-sized client, or a large client, to actually be able to make some buying choices based on surplus capital in some of the key areas.

但聽著，所有領域最終都有資本。因此，我們確實看到了客戶的機會，無論您是小型客戶、中型客戶還是大客戶，實際上都能夠根據某些關鍵領域的剩餘資本做出一些購買選擇。

Thank you for that. And then my follow-up, I was curious as to -- if lower interest rates and the expectation for additional interest rate cuts have any implications on the growth outlook in either the health or the wealth segments?

謝謝你。然後我的後續行動，我很好奇——較低的利率和進一步降息的預期是否會對健康或財富領域的成長前景產生任何影響？

I think the big impact that we expect to experience from interest rate impacts is on the fiduciary investment income line. And as I said in my prepared remarks, illustratively, about 100 basis points has approximately a $70 million impact on that business.

我認為我們預期利率影響所經歷的重大影響是對信託投資收益線的影響。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，大約 100 個基點對該業務的影響約為 7000 萬美元。

Of course, you need to think about the growth in those balances. You think about the lower expense that we have because of our term loan debt, as well as you need to think about where the currencies are located. Less than 60% are in the US, and then they're in euro and GBP.

當然，您需要考慮這些餘額的增長。您會考慮由於定期貸款債務而導致的較低費用，並且您需要考慮貨幣的所在地。不到 60% 是在美國，然後是歐元和英鎊。

That's the biggest impact on our business. And as I said earlier, we still expect to be able to hit our objectives across the firm, across each of our solution lines, despite the interest rate environment. So that's what I'd call out to you.

這是對我們業務影響最大的。正如我之前所說，儘管存在利率環境，我們仍然希望能夠在整個公司、每個解決方案系列中實現我們的目標。這就是我要向你呼籲的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Think about the overall (technical difficulty) profile as it relates to health and (technical difficulty) health and wealth. Listen, this opportunity is fundamentally unlimited on the health side. This has gone up -- this is healthcare inflation.

考慮與健康以及（技術難度）健康和財富相關的整體（技術難度）概況。聽著，這個機會在健康方面基本上是無限的。這個數字已經上升——這就是醫療保健通膨。

And this is projected to be up 9%, 10% again in 2025, is an unbelievably challenged profile for our clients. And that really is the demand driver on the health side and similar on the wealth side.

預計這一數字將成長 9%，到 2025 年將再次成長 10%，這對我們的客戶來說是一個令人難以置信的挑戰。這確實是健康方面的需求驅動因素，在財富方面也是如此。

If we think about pension risk transfer and some of the other things that come with changing rate environments, the demand profile in both categories, both solution lines, is exceptionally strong.

如果我們考慮退休金風險轉移以及利率環境變化帶來的其他一些問題，那麼這兩個類別、兩種解決方案的需求狀況都非常強勁。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks. First question I had on reinsurance brokerage. Some of your peers have said that the market might be centering on more muted property cap reinsurance pricing changes into next year. And I'm not sure what your view is on reinsurance demand growth, but I know it was quite strong this year. So I'm curious how conducive you think the reinsurance brokerage environment might be into 2025.

嘿，謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於再保險經紀的。一些同行表示，市場可能會關註明年財產上限再保險定價變化的溫和變化。我不確定您對再保險需求成長有何看法，但我知道今年的需求成長相當強勁。所以我很好奇您認為 2025 年再保險經紀環境可能會有多大的優勢。

Great question. I expected somebody was going to ask us that question at some point. Listen, maybe I'll just open with an overarching thought that the reinsurance market is constructed to handle events like Helene and Milton. That's why it exists. It's doing great work. There's money flowing into the area for reconstruction. So it's all good on that front.

很好的問題。我預計有人會在某個時候問我們這個問題。聽著，也許我會先提出一個總體想法：再保險市場的建構是為了處理像海倫和米爾頓這樣的事件。這就是它存在的原因。它做得很好。有資金流入該地區進行重建。所以這方面一切都很好。

I will say that as we were going into the fall, you definitely had pressure from clients, which I think was rightly applied, around pricing and around attachment points, based on the way the market had moved over the last three years, where there were significant program changes as reinsurers sort of changed their position.

我想說的是，當我們進入秋季時，你肯定受到了來自客戶的壓力，我認為這種壓力是正確的，圍繞定價和附著點，基於過去三年市場的變化方式，其中有隨著再保險公司的立場有所改變，計劃發生了重大變化。

Certainly, post these two events, there is conversations that are happening around, does it flatten the pricing, does it slow the rate of descent, however you want to phrase it. And I would say it's early. There is still substantial capital that's in the marketplace. And I would say that depending on where you sit in the world, certainly, the Europeans are pushing hard for price decreases and attachment point relief based on where they sit.

當然，在這兩個事件之後，周圍正在發生一些對話，它是否會壓平定價，是否會減緩下降速度，無論你想用什麼措辭。我想說現在還早。市場上仍有大量資本。我想說，根據你在世界上的位置，歐洲人肯定會根據他們的位置大力推動價格下降和附著點緩解。

And I think as these negotiations take firmer sort of structure over the next 8 to 10 weeks, I think you're going to see clients continue to push either for rate or for attachment point relief going forward. And we'll see where it turns out, and I look forward to talking to you about it the next time we're together.

我認為，隨著這些談判在接下來的 8 到 10 週內採取更堅固的結構，我認為您將看到客戶繼續推動利率或連接點的緩解。我們會看看結果如何，我期待下次我們在一起時與您討論這個問題。

That's really helpful. If I could follow up with a question on cap bonds. I appreciate you guys putting the 13% growth in cap bond issuance year to date in the press release. Could you help us think about the economics to Aon of cap bond placement versus traditional reinsurance brokerage?

這真的很有幫助。我能否跟進有關上限債券的問題。我很感謝你們在新聞稿中提到今年迄今為止上限債券發行量增加了 13%。您能否幫助我們思考一下上限債券配售與傳統再保險經紀業務對怡安集團的經濟效益？

So listen, those bonds -- let me take a step-up for a second. In the end, our goal here is to get paid for value, for what we deliver for clients, whether it's in the form of a reinsurance brokerage, whether it's in the form of cap funds. These are very sophisticated clients, and we have very sophisticated discussions around what our value proposition is in the structure.

聽著，這些紐帶——讓我先說一下。最後，我們的目標是根據價值、為客戶提供的服務獲得報酬，無論是再保險經紀的形式，或是上限基金的形式。這些都是非常成熟的客戶，我們圍繞著我們的結構中的價值主張進行了非常複雜的討論。

So we're agnostic to the tool that they use. Because they each have a role in their capital stack in terms of there are certain risks that belong in the capital markets. There are certain risks that belong in the reinsurance market. And our goal is to help the client figure out which one it does.

所以我們對他們使用的工具不可知。因為它們各自在資本堆疊中發揮一定的作用，資本市場存在一定的風險。再保險市場存在某些風險。我們的目標是幫助客戶弄清楚它適合哪一種。

So for us, we're agnostic to whether it's a cap bond, whether it's a traditional reinsurance placement. But rest assured the conversation with each of the clients around our value for what we're doing for them is very open and transparent. And so for us, it doesn't really matter which way it goes because, ultimately, we're just trying to provide the right level of value to our clients.

因此，對我們來說，我們不知道它是否是上限債券，是否是傳統的再保險配置。但請放心，與每個客戶圍繞我們​​為他們所做的事情的價值進行的對話是非常開放和透明的。因此，對我們來說，走哪條路並不重要，因為最終我們只是想為客戶提供適當的價值水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Case for any closing comments.

謝謝。女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給凱斯先生以徵求結束意見。

Just want to say thanks for joining us, and we look forward to your call next time. And again, have a great day, and appreciate you being part of the call today.

只是想感謝您加入我們，我們期待您下次的來電。再次祝您有美好的一天，感謝您今天參與通話。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。