怡安集團 (AON) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon plc's Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I'd also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has any objection, you may disconnect your line at this time.

早安，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Aon plc 2023 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）我還想提醒各方，此通話正在錄音。如果有人有異議，此時您可以斷開線路。

It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results as well as having been posted on our website.

值得注意的是，今天電話會議中的一些評論可能構成 1995 年《私人證券改革法案》所定義的某些前瞻性陳述。此類陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果有重大差異。有關可能導致此類差異的風險因素的資訊在涵蓋我們第四季度和 2023 年全年業績的新聞稿中進行了描述，並已發佈在我們的網站上。

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon plc.

現在我很高興將電話轉給怡安公司執行長格雷格·凱斯。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter conference call. I'm joined by Christa Davies, CFO; and Eric Andersen, our President. As in previous quarters, we posted a detailed financial presentation on our website. We want to start with a very sincere thank you to our Aon colleagues around the world for all they've done in 2023, deliver for our clients and support each other.

大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的第四季電話會議。財務長 Christa Davies 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的總裁 Eric Andersen。與前幾季一樣，我們在網站上發布了詳細的財務演示。首先，我們要衷心感謝世界各地的怡安同事在 2023 年所做的一切，為我們的客戶提供服務並相互支持。

As we reflect on 2023, we observed that the client demand driving our Aon United journey, trends around increasing volatility and interconnected risk have accelerated. Specifically, we see 4 broad areas of focus that increase the relevance of our core business and create opportunity to deliver more value to clients. These 4 megatrends revolve around trade and the consequence of sustained geopolitical uncertainty, technology, particularly the rise of AI, weather reflecting the rate of natural catastrophes and workforce where the pandemic has fundamentally impacted talent.

當我們回顧 2023 年時，我們發現客戶需求推動了怡安聯航的發展，波動性和相互關聯風險的趨勢也正在加速。具體來說，我們看到了 4 個廣泛的重點領域，這些領域可以提高我們核心業務的相關性，並創造為客戶提供更多價值的機會。這四大趨勢圍繞著貿易和持續的地緣政治不確定性的後果、技術（尤其是人工智慧的崛起）、反映自然災害發生率的天氣以及疫情從根本上影響人才的勞動力。

These profound transitions described in our Global Risk Management Survey and Human Capital Trends report, require clients to both deliver against today's expectations and evolve to make better decisions on new risk and people challenges. Against that backdrop, we've taken significant steps to accelerate our Aon United strategy in ways that drove performance in 2023 and set the stage to build momentum and deliver stronger performance in 2024.

我們的全球風險管理調查和人力資本趨勢報告中所描述的這些深刻轉變要求客戶既要滿足當今的期望，又要針對新的風險和人員挑戰做出更好的決策。在此背景下，我們採取了重大步驟來加速我們的怡安聯合策略，以推動 2023 年的業績，並為在 2024 年積蓄動力和實現更強勁的業績奠定基礎。

Most notably, we're executing our 3x3 plan to leverage our Risk Capital and Human Capital structuring capability, embed the Aon Client Leadership model across the firm and utilize Aon Business Services to set a new standard of innovation and client service. We then doubled down on this plan by announcing a $900 million investment into our business to accelerate Aon Business Services as a catalyst for the 3x3 plan and to complete workforce strategy efforts to reflect our simplified and more connected go-to-market strategy.

最值得注意的是，我們正在執行3x3 計劃，以利用我們的風險資本和人力資本建立能力，在整個公司嵌入怡安客戶領導力模型，並利用怡安商業服務來設定創新和客戶服務的新標準。然後，我們加倍落實該計劃，宣布對我們的業務投資9 億美元，以加速怡安商業服務(Aon Business Services) 作為3x3 計劃的催化劑，並完成勞動力戰略工作，以反映我們簡化且更加互聯的上市戰略。

We closed the year with strong operating momentum and also took action to build upon our ABS driven capability to deliver innovative and accretive new products into the middle market by announcing our intent to acquire NFP. NFP under the leadership of Doug Hammond and an exceptional team is the premier operating platform in the middle market segment with tremendous client relationships and distribution. And together, we can bring stronger analytics and innovation to this space. And not just capability but content that can serve the middle market, like Aon Cyber Quotient Evaluation or CyQu, a proprietary platform that helps clients identify, measure and manage cyber risk.

我們以強勁的經營勢頭結束了這一年，並採取行動，透過宣布收購 NFP 的意向，增強我們的 ABS 驅動能力，向中間市場提供創新和增值的新產品。 NFP 在 Doug Hammond 和優秀團隊的領導下，是中端市場領域的首要營運平台，擁有龐大的客戶關係和分銷網絡。我們可以共同為這個領域帶來更強大的分析和創新。不僅是能力，還有可以服務中間市場的內容，例如怡安網路商數評估或 CyQu，這是一個幫助客戶識別、衡量和管理網路風險的專有平台。

NFP's operating platform will enable quick and efficient connections [payout] as a services content, driving meaningful growth in the middle market, and we're incredibly excited about the top and bottom line growth potential for NFP given our complementary businesses and expected synergies and the value that we'll create.

NFP 的營運平台將實現快速且有效率的連結[支付]作為服務內容，推動中間市場的有意義的成長，鑑於我們的互補業務和預期的協同效應，我們對NFP 的頂線和底線成長潛力感到非常興奮。我們將創造的價值。

For Aon overall, and barely one month into 2024, we already feel the momentum from these actions thus demonstrated through the client benefits of our integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital capabilities. On the Risk Capital side, our recent weather climate catastrophe report highlights the growing frequency and severity of events around the world as clients look to manage volatility, enhance resilience and unlock opportunity.

對於怡安整體而言，距離 2024 年不到一個月，我們已經感受到了這些行動所帶來的動力，這些行動透過我們綜合風險資本和人力資本能力為客戶帶來的利益而得到體現。在創投方面，我們最近的天氣氣候災難報告強調了世界各地事件的頻率和嚴重程度不斷增加，因為客戶希望管理波動性、增強抵抗能力並釋放機會。

To do this, organizations must have more actionable analytics, exactly the insight we bring with Risk Capital, through the combined power of reinsurance and commercial risk analytics and expertise for our clients. We recently saw this in action at our Annual Property Symposium with over 1,000 clients and insurance markets in the room, where we demonstrated a new suite of advanced analytic tools that bring together content and capability across Reinsurance and Commercial Risk.

為此，組織必須透過再保險和商業風險分析的綜合力量以及為客戶提供的專業知識，擁有更具可操作性的分析，這正是我們透過創投帶來的洞察力。最近，我們在年度財產研討會上看到了這一點，與會者超過1,000 名客戶和保險市場，會上我們展示了一套新的先進分析工具，將再保險和商業風險領域的內容和能力結合在一起。

One example is our Property Risk Analyzer, giving clients better understanding of the risk profile in real time which allows us to work more closely together to provide better insight into the risk mitigation options and enables them to make better decisions. From the overwhelming feedback of engagement, it's clear our clients are demanding better solutions and greater support. And because of the steps we've taken and progress we've made with Aon Business Services on products and platforms, we can develop and roll these tools out more quickly for our largest clients and the clients of all sizes delivered efficiently at scale.

一個例子是我們的財產風險分析器，它可以讓客戶更好地即時了解風險狀況，從而使我們能夠更緊密地合作，更好地了解風險緩解方案，並使他們能夠做出更好的決策。從大量的參與回饋來看，我們的客戶顯然​​需要更好的解決方案和更多的支援。由於我們已經採取的步驟以及我們與 Aon Business Services 在產品和平台上的進展，我們可以更快地為我們最大的客戶和各種規模的客戶開發和推出這些工具，並有效地大規模交付。

Equally compelling for Human Capital. Our Human Capital trends report highlights the rising importance of clients of having a unique and differentiated value proposition for employees. We see clients facing significant rising health care cost and lower overall population health, but at a time when the need to provide broad health and well-being offerings is greater than ever. We also saw attracting and retaining top talent as the fourth rank risk in our Global Risk Management Survey. Our clients realize it's more important than ever to have a compelling strategy across health, wealth and talent needs. That's delivered in an efficient way to maximize the benefit towards offering.

對於人力資本同樣具有吸引力。我們的人力資本趨勢報告強調了客戶為員工提供獨特且差異化的價值主張的重要性日益增加。我們看到客戶面臨醫療保健成本大幅上升和整體人口健康狀況下降的問題，但此時提供廣泛的健康和福祉服務的需求比以往任何時候都更大。我們也將吸引和留住頂尖人才視為全球風險管理調查的第四大風險。我們的客戶意識到，在健康、財富和人才需求方面製定引人注目的策略比以往任何時候都更加重要。這是以有效的方式交付的，以最大限度地提高產品的利益。

Together, this creates significant opportunity to work with clients to design and optimize their programs, including core offerings to improve colleague health, how operations drive workers' compensation costs, choosing optimal partners in their health model and supporting top talent through a strong employee value proposition to ultimately maximize return on investment of their people spend.

總而言之，這創造了與客戶合作設計和優化其計劃的重要機會，包括改善同事健康的核心產品、營運如何推動員工薪酬成本、在健康模式中選擇最佳合作夥伴以及透過強大的員工價值主張支持頂尖人才最終最大限度地提高員工的投資回報。

All these are examples of our 3x3 plan in action. It's Human Capital and Risk Capital. Delivered through our Aon Client Leadership model and enabled by Aon Business Services. These 3 pillars reinforce and accelerate our Aon United strategy, which has driven the financial performance and gives us great confidence in our outlook.

所有這些都是我們 3x3 計劃的實施範例。這是人力資本和風險資本。透過我們的 Aon 客戶領導模型交付，並由 Aon Business Services 提供支援。這三大支柱加強並加速了我們的怡安聯合策略，推動了財務業績，並使我們對我們的前景充滿信心。

On financial performance, we delivered strong results in the quarter but contribute to full year progress against our key financial metrics. Organic revenue growth was 7% in the quarter and 7% for the full year, was highlighted by full year double-digit growth in Reinsurance Solutions and Health Solutions. And we've maintained strong overall growth throughout the year on top of 6% organic in the prior year.

在財務業績方面，我們在本季度取得了強勁的業績，但根據我們的關鍵財務指標為全年的進展做出了貢獻。本季有機收入成長 7%，全年有機收入成長 7%，再保險解決方案和健康解決方案全年實現兩位數成長凸顯了這一點。在上一年 6% 的有機成長基礎上，我們全年保持強勁的整體成長。

In the fourth quarter, Commercial Risk grew 4% organically with strength in property, casualty and construction, even against the headwind communicated in prior quarters of ongoing pressure from trends in the M&A and IPO markets. Wealth Solutions, organic growth of 5% in Q4 reflects strong growth in retirement, which includes growth from ongoing pension risk transfer projects and work to help clients address changing regulatory requirements.

第四季度，商業風險有機成長了 4%，儘管在前幾個季度因併購和 IPO 市場趨勢帶來的持續壓力而面臨逆風的情況下，房地產、傷亡和建築業表現強勁。 Wealth Solutions 的第四季有機成長 5%，反映出退休人口的強勁成長，其中包括正在進行的退休金風險轉移專案以及幫助客戶應對不斷變化的監管要求的工作帶來的成長。

Reinsurance Solutions organic growth was 14%, contributing to a full year organic growth of 10%, as our team closed the year strong while also helping clients prepare for and execute an early 1/1 renewal. Health Solutions delivered 11% organic growth, reflecting strength around the world in the core, driven by net new business and retention as well as strong growth in the U.S. Consumer Benefit Solutions. This performance gives us confidence in our ability to drive ongoing growth across the portfolio, fully reflecting the strength of Aon United.

再保險解決方案的有機成長為14%，為全年10% 的有機成長做出了貢獻，因為我們的團隊以強勁的業績結束了這一年，同時也幫助客戶準備並執行早期的1/1 續保。健康解決方案實現了 11% 的有機成長，反映了在淨新業務和保留以及美國消費者利益解決方案強勁增長的推動下，全球範圍內的核心實力。這項業績讓我們對推動整個投資組合持續成長的能力充滿信心，充分體現了怡安聯合的實力。

For the full year, 7% organic growth and ongoing operational improvement have contributed to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion and 10% adjusted operating income growth. These strong results demonstrate our progress and momentum as well as the power of our Aon United strategy and Aon Business Services platform. This performance builds on our long-term track record of results.

全年 7% 的有機成長和持續的營運改善推動調整後營運利潤率擴大 80 個基點，調整後營運收入成長 10%。這些強勁的業績展現了我們的進步和動力，以及怡安聯合策略和怡安商業服務平台的力量。這一業績建立在我們長期業績記錄的基礎上。

Over the past 12 years, we've strengthened and accelerated organic revenue growth in mid-single digits or greater. Delivered over 1,200 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion and growing EPS and free cash flow at 11% compounded annual rate, ending 2023 with nearly $3.2 billion in free cash flow.

在過去 12 年裡，我們加強並加速了有機收入成長，達到中個位數或更高。調整後營業利潤率擴張超過 1,200 個基點，每股收益和自由現金流以 11% 的複合年增長率增長，到 2023 年底，自由現金流接近 32 億美元。

The steps we've taken to accelerate Aon United with our 3x3 plan reinforce and strengthen our long-term financial guidance for the firm, including mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth in 2024 and over the long term, adjusted operating margin expansion over the long term and long-term double-digit free cash flow growth. As we've communicated, initiatives like our restructuring program and expected acquisition of NFP impact this guidance in the near term, and over time, we believe these initiatives will contribute to significant ongoing shareholder value creation.

我們透過 3x3 計畫加速 Aon United 的發展，強化了我們對公司的長期財務指導，包括 2024 年實現中個位數或更高的有機收入成長，以及長期調整後的營業利潤率擴張長期來看，自由現金流長期維持兩位數成長。正如我們所傳達的，我們的重組計劃和預期收購 NFP 等舉措會在短期內影響本指引，隨著時間的推移，我們相信這些舉措將有助於持續創造顯著的股東價值。

More important, we view the opportunity as higher over the next 5 years than at any time in our history. And in closing, we're pleased to report another strong year of progress against our Aon United strategy, which we're accelerating with our 3x3 plan deliver Risk Capital and Human Capital at scale, fully reinforce through Aon Business Services.

更重要的是，我們認為未來 5 年的機會比歷史上任何時期都多。最後，我們很高興地報告我們的怡安聯合策略又取得了強勁進展，我們正在透過 3x3 計劃加速該策略，大規模提供風險資本和人力資本，並透過怡安商業服務充分強化。

Looking back on the year, we delivered accelerating growth across 3 of 4 solution lines and built momentum across the firm, including 7% full year organic revenue growth, 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, 10% adjusted operating income growth and nearly $3.2 billion of free cash flow. Equally important, we took a series of major actions that position Aon for stronger performance in 2024 and over the coming years.

回顧這一年，我們在4 個解決方案系列中的3 個實現了加速增長，並在整個公司建立了動力，包括7% 的全年有機收入增長、80 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張、 10% 的調整後營業收入成長和近3.2 美元的成長億的自由現金流。同樣重要的是，我們採取了一系列重大行動，使怡安在 2024 年及未來幾年取得更強勁的業績。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Christa for her thoughts on our financial results and long-term outlook. Christa?

現在我想將電話轉給 Christa，詢問她對我們的財務表現和長期前景的看法。克里斯塔？

Thanks so much, Greg, and good morning, everyone. As Greg highlighted, we delivered strong operating results in the fourth quarter to finish the year strong. In the quarter, we translated 7% organic revenue growth into 60 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, and 10% adjusted operating income growth.

非常感謝，格雷格，大家早安。正如格雷格所強調的那樣，我們在第四季度取得了強勁的經營業績，為今年畫上了圓滿的句號。本季度，我們將 7% 的有機收入成長轉化為 60 個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴張和 10% 的調整後營業收入成長。

For the full year 2023, we delivered 7% organic revenue growth, 80 basis points of margin expansion, 6% EPS growth and generated $3.2 billion of free cash flow. In the quarter, we announced our definitive agreement to acquire leading broker NFP enabling us to unlock the fast-growing mid-market with Aon Business Services-enabled enhanced distribution and further accelerate our Aon United strategy.

2023 年全年，我們實現了 7% 的有機收入成長、80 個基點的利潤率擴張、6% 的每股盈餘成長，並產生了 32 億美元的自由現金流。在本季度，我們宣布了收購領先經紀商 NFP 的最終協議，使我們能夠透過怡安商業服務支援的增強分銷來解鎖快速成長的中端市場，並進一步加速我們的怡安聯合策略。

The steps that we've taken around Aon Business Services now enable us to address this attractive market in a compelling way that delivers Risk Capital and Human Capital at scale to clients of all sizes. The expected acquisition of NFP builds on our long-term proven track record of strategically allocating capital at scale to high return opportunities to create long-term value for clients, colleagues and shareholders. And as Greg mentioned, we see the expected acquisition and our restructuring program, reinforcing our Aon United strategy and our 3x3 plan. We are extremely well positioned to build on this momentum as we head into 2024.

我們圍繞怡安商業服務所採取的步驟現在使我們能夠以一種引人注目的方式應對這個有吸引力的市場，為各種規模的客戶提供大規模的風險資本和人力資本。對 NFP 的預期收購建立在我們長期有效的記錄之上，即大規模策略性地將資本配置到高回報機會，為客戶、同事和股東創造長期價值。正如格雷格所提到的，我們看到了預期的收購和重組計劃，加強了我們的怡安聯合策略和 3x3 計劃。進入 2024 年，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以鞏固這一勢頭。

As I reflect on our results, as Greg noted, organic revenue growth was 7% in Q4 and for the full year, highlighted by double-digit organic revenue growth in Reinsurance Solutions and Health Solutions. I would note that reported revenue growth of 8% in Q4 includes a favorable impact from changes in FX of 2%, and there's no net impact from changes in FX to full year reported revenue.

正如格雷格所指出的，正如我在反思我們的業績時所指出的那樣，第四季度和全年的有機收入增長了7%，其中再保險解決方案和健康解決方案的有機收入增長達到了兩位數。我要指出的是，第四季度報告的 8% 的收入成長包括 2% 的外匯變化帶來的有利影響，且外匯變化對全年報告的收入沒有淨影響。

I'd also highlight fiduciary investment income, which is not included in organic revenue growth, was $78 million in Q4 and $274 million for the full year. If you were to include fiduciary investment income, organic revenue growth would have been 8% in both Q4 and the full year. We continue to expect mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth for the full year 2024 and over the long term.

我還要強調的是，第四季的信託投資收入（不包括在有機收入成長）為 7,800 萬美元，全年為 2.74 億美元。如果算上信託投資收入，第四季和全年的有機收入成長率將為 8%。我們繼續預期 2024 年全年及長期內有機收入將實現中個位數或更高的成長。

Moving to operating performance. We delivered strong operational improvement in Q4 with adjusted operating margins of 33.8%, an increase of 60 basis points, driven by revenue growth, efficiencies from Aon Business Services, overcoming expense growth, including investment in colleagues and technology to drive long-term growth. For the full year, adjusted operating margins of 31.6% reflects margin expansion of 80 basis points. As previously communicated, there was no impact on margin from restructuring savings.

轉向經營業績。我們在第四季度實現了強勁的營運改善，調整後的營運利潤率為33.8%，成長了60 個基點，這得益於營收成長、怡安商業服務公司的效率、克服費用成長，包括對同事和技術的投資，以推動長期成長。全年調整後營業利益率為 31.6%，反映出利潤率擴大了 80 個基點。如同先前所傳達的，重組節省對利潤率沒有影響。

Looking forward, we expect to deliver margin expansion in 2024 and over the long term as we continue our track record of cost discipline and managing investments in long-term growth on an ROIC basis. We expect restructuring savings will fall to the bottom line and contribute to full year adjusted operating margin expansion. Restructuring actions completed in 2023 are expected to generate $70 million of run rate savings in 2024. At this time, we continue to expect $100 million of run rate savings in 2024 as we continue to execute against our plans for Aon Business Services and our business.

展望未來，我們預計將在 2024 年和長期內實現利潤率擴張，因為我們將繼續保持成本紀律的記錄並在投資回報率的基礎上管理長期增長的投資。我們預計重組節省將降至底線，並有助於全年調整後營業利潤率的擴張。 2023 年完成的重組行動預計將在 2024 年節省 7,000 萬美元的運行費。目前，隨著我們繼續執行怡安商業服務和業務計劃，我們預計 2024 年將節省 1 億美元的運行費。

As we've previously communicated, we've conservatively modeled the expected acquisition of NFP to close midyear 2025. While the combined adjusted operating margin will initially be lower than Aon stand-alone, we expect over time to continue to improve Aon's overall margins through operational improvement and the impact from previously communicated cost synergies.

正如我們之前所傳達的，我們對預計於2025 年年中完成的NFP 收購進行了保守的建模。雖然調整後的綜合營運利潤率最初將低於怡安的獨立營運利潤率，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，怡安的整體利潤率將繼續透過以下方式提高：營運改善以及先前傳達的成本協同效應的影響。

Turning to EPS. Adjusted EPS was flat in Q4. Operating income grew 10%, but was offset by a headwind from a higher tax rate in the quarter and nonoperating expense. For the full year, organic revenue growth and margin expansion translated into adjusted EPS growth of 6%, overcoming a headwind from nonoperating expense.

轉向每股收益。第四季調整後每股盈餘持平。營業收入成長 10%，但被本季稅率上升和非營業費用帶來的不利影響所抵銷。全年有機收入成長和利潤率擴張轉化為調整後每股收益 6% 的成長，克服了非營運費用的不利影響。

I'd note the change in other nonoperating expense had a $0.15 per share or 4% unfavorable impact in Q4 and $0.98 per share or 7% unfavorable impact for the full year. This reflects an unfavorable impact from balance sheet FX remeasurement in the current period, an increase in noncash net periodic pension expense as well as a gain on sale of businesses in the prior year period. Also, as noted in our earnings materials, FX translation had a favorable impact of approximately $0.03 per share in Q4 and an unfavorable impact of $0.17 per share for the full year. If currency remain stable at today's rates, we would expect no material net translation impact to results for the full year 2024.

我注意到其他非營業費用的變化對第四季度每股 0.15 美元或 4% 的不利影響，對全年每股 0.98 美元或 7% 的不利影響。這反映了本期資產負債表外匯重新計量、非現金淨定期退休金支出的增加以及上一年期間業務出售收益的不利影響。此外，正如我們的收益資料中所指出的，外匯換算對第四季度每股約 0.03 美元的有利影響，對全年每股約 0.17 美元的不利影響。如果貨幣以目前匯率保持穩定，我們預計不會對 2024 年全年業績產生重大淨換算影響。

Additionally, in 2024, we expect noncash pension expense in OIE to be $43 million, spread evenly across quarters compared to $71 million in 2023. And as we've previously communicated, based on a mid-2025 close, the expected acquisition of NFP is expected to be dilutive in 2025, breakeven to adjusted 2026 EPS, and accretive in 2027 and beyond. At this time, there are no further updates on the regulatory process or deal time line for NFP.

此外，我們預計2024 年OIE 的非現金退休金支出為4,300 萬美元，與2023 年的7,100 萬美元相比，各季度平均分配。正如我們之前溝通過的，根據2025 年中期的交割，預計收購NFP的金額為預計將在 2025 年稀釋，在 2026 年調整後每股收益達到損益平衡，並在 2027 年及以後實現增值。目前，NFP 的監管流程或交易時間表沒有進一步更新。

Turning to free cash flow. We generated $3.2 billion of free cash flow in 2023. For the full year, cash from operations increased $216 million year-over-year or 7%, reflecting double-digit operating income growth and overall working capital optimization partially offset by higher cash tax payments. I'd note the negative impact to working capital caused by temporary inversing delays associated with the new system implementation which we communicated last quarter persisted in Q4 and impacted our overall continued progress on working capital.

轉向自由現金流。 2023 年，我們產生了32 億美元的自由現金流。全年營運現金年增2.16 億美元，即成長7%，反映出兩位數的營運收入成長和整體營運資本優化，但部分被現金稅款增加所抵消。我要指出的是，與我們上季度溝通的新系統實施相關的臨時反轉延遲對營運資本造成的負面影響在第四季度持續存在，並影響了我們在營運資本方面的整體持續進展。

Free cash flow increased 5% as cash flow from operations was offset in part by a $56 million or 29% increase in CapEx. CapEx was $252 million in 2023 as we executed technology projects to drive long-term growth. Going forward, we expect CapEx to grow in line with the business, managed on a disciplined ROIC basis.

自由現金流成長了 5%，因為營運現金流被 5,600 萬美元（即資本支出成長 29%）部分抵銷。 2023 年，我們執行技術專案以推動長期成長，資本支出為 2.52 億美元。展望未來，我們預期資本支出將與業務同步成長，並在嚴格的投資報酬率基礎上進行管理。

Looking forward, free cash flow will be impacted in the near term by restructuring, higher interest expense, and the expected NFP deal and integration costs. We expect to return to our trajectory of double-digit free cash flow growth over the long term, driven by operating income growth and a $500 million opportunity in working capital. As we contemplate the expected acquisition of NFP, the transaction strengthens our long-term free cash flow outlook. We expect the transaction to add over $300 million of free cash flow in 2026 and $600 million of free cash flow in 2027.

展望未來，自由現金流將在短期內受到重組、更高的利息支出以及預期的非農業就業報告交易和整合成本的影響。在營業收入成長和 5 億美元營運資本機會的推動下，我們預期長期將恢復兩位數自由現金流成長的軌跡。當我們考慮收​​購 NFP 時，該交易增強了我們的長期自由現金流前景。我們預計此交易將在 2026 年增加超過 3 億美元的自由現金流，在 2027 年增加 6 億美元的自由現金流。

Now let me provide an update on our accelerating Aon United program, which is enabling Aon Business Services and our 3x3 plan. As Greg highlighted, 3x3 part is accelerating our Aon United strategy. We see particular opportunity around Aon Business Services as a catalyst. We are investing to standardize platforms and operations, drive data analytics-based product innovation and deliver at scale to create better tools better experiences and greater relevance for clients and colleagues.

現在讓我提供有關我們加速 Aon United 計劃的最新信息，該計劃支持 Aon Business Services 和我們的 3x3 計劃。正如 Greg 所強調的那樣，3x3 部分正在加速我們的 Aon United 策略。我們認為怡安商業服務的特殊機會是催化劑。我們正在投資標準化平台和運營，推動基於數據分析的產品創新，並大規模交付以創造更好的工具，為客戶和同事提供更好的體驗和更大的相關性。

In the fourth quarter, we incurred $129 million of restructuring-related charges, with a cash outflow of $13 million. We're pleased with the progress we've made in the quarter, and we've incurred 12% of total expected cash restructuring charges. The actions we've taken in 2023 are expected to generate $70 million of run rate savings in 2024, contributing to the $100 million of cumulative savings we expect for the full year 2024. As mentioned, program savings were not material in 2023.

第四季度，我們發生了 1.29 億美元的重組相關費用，現金流出 1,300 萬美元。我們對本季的進展感到滿意，我們已經支付了預期現金重組費用總額的 12%。我們在2023 年採取的行動預計將在2024 年節省7,000 萬美元的運行費用，從而為我們預計的2024 年全年累計節省1 億美元做出貢獻。如上所述，計劃節省在2023 年並不重要。

As we said previously, we look at the opportunity in Aon Business Services and across our client vetting capabilities. We know delivering our strategy will result in long-term progress against our key financial metrics and will drive more value for clients, colleagues and shareholders.

正如我們之前所說，我們著眼於怡安商業服務以及我們的客戶審查能力中的機會。我們知道，實施我們的策略將為我們的關鍵財務指標帶來長期進展，並將為客戶、同事和股東帶來更多價值。

Turning now to capital allocation. We allocate capital based on return on capital and long-term value creation. And note, over time, we've driven value creation through core business results, share buyback and acquisitions. As you look historically, we have a successful track record balancing acquisitions and dispositions of all sizes and share buyback. Given our strong outlook for free cash flow over the long term, we expect share repurchase to continue remain our highest return on capital opportunity for meaningful ongoing capital allocation. We believe we are significantly undervalued in the market today, highlighted by the $2.7 billion of share repurchase in 2023.

現在轉向資本配置。我們根據資本回報率和長期價值創造來分配資本。請注意，隨著時間的推移，我們透過核心業務成果、股票回購和收購推動了價值創造。從歷史上看，我們在平衡各種規模的收購和處置以及股票回購方面擁有成功的記錄。鑑於我們對長期自由現金流的強勁前景，我們預計股票回購將繼續成為我們進行有意義的持續資本配置的最高資本回報機會。我們認為，我們在當今市場上被嚴重低估，2023 年 27 億美元的股票回購就凸顯了這一點。

We expect to continue to invest organically in content and capabilities we can scale across the firm, and we'll continue to assess priority areas for inorganic investment, noting our M&A pipeline continues to be focused on our global priority areas that will bring scalable solutions to our clients growing and evolving challenges.

我們希望繼續對我們可以在整個公司範圍內擴展的內容和能力進行有機投資，我們將繼續評估無機投資的優先領域，並指出我們的併購管道繼續專注於我們的全球優先領域，這些領域將為我們帶來可擴展的解決方案我們的客戶面臨不斷增長和演變的挑戰。

We will continue to assess all capital allocation decisions on an ROIC basis. Noting we ended 2023 with an ROIC of 33.1%, an increase of nearly 2,100 basis points over the last 12 years, reflecting our track record of balancing growth and returns to create long-term value. I'd note, ROIC will initially be negatively impacted after the expected acquisition of NFP. We expect it to improve over time as we execute our Aon United strategy to drive long-term value creation.

我們將繼續在投資報酬率的基礎上評估所有資本配置決策。注意到我們截至 2023 年的投資回報率為 33.1%，比過去 12 年增長了近 2,100 個基點，反映了我們平衡增長和回報以創造長期價值的記錄。我要指出的是，ROIC 在預期收購 NFP 後最初將受到負面影響。我們預計，隨著我們執行怡安聯合策略以推動長期價值創造，它會隨著時間的推移而改善。

Our expected acquisition of NFP is consistent with our proven capital allocation framework. It enables us to put capital to work at scale and strengthen our free cash flow profile in the long term, which will continue to allocate to drive shareholder value creation. Between now and the expected close of the deal, we expect discretionary capital allocation will continue to be much more weighted towards share buyback given the commitments we've made around NFP.

我們對 NFP 的預期收購與我們經過驗證的資本配置架構一致。它使我們能夠大規模投入資本，並從長遠來看加強我們的自由現金流狀況，這將繼續分配以推動股東價值創造。從現在到預計交易完成，考慮到我們圍繞非農就業數據的承諾，我們預計可自由支配的資本配置將繼續更多地偏重於股票回購。

Following the expected close of NFP, free cash flow will be impacted in the near term by deal and integration costs and higher interest expense for transaction-related debt, and as we take steps to delever our balance sheet, and return metrics to levels consistent with our current credit ratings profile.

在非農就業報告預計結束後，自由現金流將在短期內受到交易和整合成本以及交易相關債務利息支出上升的影響，並且隨著我們採取措施去槓桿化資產負債表並將指標恢復到與我們目前的信用評級概況。

Turning now to our balance sheet and debt capacity. We remain confident in the strength of our balance sheet and manage liquidity risk through a well-laddered debt maturity profile. We remain committed to maintaining our current investment-grade credit ratings. We expect to continue adding debt supported by EBITDA growth until we complete the expected acquisition of NFP and expect to maintain our current ratings.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和負債能力。我們對資產負債表的實力仍然充滿信心，並透過完善的債務期限結構來管理流動性風險。我們仍然致力於維持目前的投資等級信用評等。我們預計將在 EBITDA 成長的支持下繼續增加債務，直到我們完成對 NFP 的預期收購併預計維持當前評級。

As we've previously communicated, we expect to fund the cash portion of the purchase with approximately $7 billion of new debt, with $2 billion [borrowed to close] and $5 billion raised in 2024, across a range of maturities subject to market conditions. Following the transaction-related debt issuance in 2024, we expect to incur approximately $12.5 million of negative interest carry expense per quarter until deal close.

正如我們之前所傳達的，我們預計將透過約70 億美元的新債務為收購的現金部分提供資金，其中20 億美元（借入以完成交易）和2024 年籌集的50 億美元，期限範圍取決於市場條件。在 2024 年發行與交易相關的債務之後，我們預計在交易完成之前每季將產生約 1,250 萬美元的負利息費用。

As we previously communicated, the financing and capital management plan contemplated in the transaction is consistent with maintaining our current investment-grade credit profile. We expect our credit ratios to be elevated over the 12 to 18 months post-close, and we expect to bring our leverage ratios back in line with levels consistent with our credit profile, driven by substantial free cash flow generation and incremental debt capacity from EBITDA growth, noting our track record of effectively managing leverage within current ratings.

正如我們先前所傳達的，交易中擬定的融資和資本管理計劃與維持我們當前的投資等級信用狀況一致。我們預計，在交易結束後12 至18 個月內，我們的信用比率將有所提高，並且在大量自由現金流產生和EBITDA 增量債務能力的推動下，我們預計將使我們的槓桿率恢復到與我們信用狀況相符的水平。成長，注意到我們在當前評級內有效管理槓桿的記錄。

In summary, in 2023, we delivered strong operational performance, contributing to continued progress against our Aon United strategy. Our strong financial results and discipline in capital management enable us to return $3.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. The steps we've taken around our 3x3 plan are accelerating our Aon United strategy catalyzed by Aon Business Services and reinforced by the restructuring program and our expected acquisition of NFP. We remain incredibly excited about the opportunity to continue to drive top and bottom line results to drive value for clients, colleagues and shareholders and look forward to building on this momentum in 2024.

總之，2023 年，我們取得了強勁的營運業績，為怡安聯合策略的持續進展做出了貢獻。我們強勁的財務表現和資本管理紀律使我們能夠透過股票回購和股息向股東返還 32 億美元。我們圍繞 3x3 計劃採取的步驟正在加速我們的 Aon United 策略，該策略由 Aon Business Services 推動，並透過重組計劃和我們預期收購 NFP 得到加強。我們仍然對有機會繼續推動營收和利潤業績，為客戶、同事和股東創造價值感到非常興奮，並期待在 2024 年繼續保持這一勢頭。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator, and we'd be delighted to take your questions.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給接線員，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will be coming from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題將來自 Andrew Kligerman 和 TD Cowen 的線路。

Kind of interested in the robust growth in both the Reinsurance business and the Health Solutions business and the sustainability there. On Reinsurance, with 14% organic growth, was it largely driven by the capital markets and advisory, and how sustainable do you think that can be? And then on the Consumer Benefit Solutions inside of health, what actually drove the Consumer Benefits Solutions strength?

對再保險業務和健康解決方案業務的強勁成長及其可持續性感興趣。再保險方面，有機成長 14%，主要是由資本市場和諮詢推動的嗎？您認為這種情況的可持續性如何？那麼，在健康領域的消費者利益解決方案方面，究竟是什麼推動了消費者利益解決方案的實力呢？

Well, Andrew, let me start, and Eric can chime in here as well. So overall, we're really pleased with how we closed the year on the growth story overall, when you think about 7% across the firm really strong momentum as we build into 2024. But you're right, our Reinsurance and Health, absolutely phenomenal, teams were absolutely terrific. And I would highlight the quarter but also highlight the year. When you think about Reinsurance across the year at 10% and Health Solutions at 10% double digit, it really is a story amplified by forward really across the year, and has been highly consistent when you think about the description around the 3x3 plan and Risk Capital and Human Capital. Both of these approaches contributed to growth sort of in the context of Health and Reinsurance and give us great momentum as we go into 2024, but maybe Eric, a little texture on both pieces for the year and the quarter.

好吧，安德魯，讓我開始，艾瑞克也可以插話。因此，總的來說，我們對今年的整體成長感到非常滿意，當你想到我們進入2024 年時，整個公司的成長勢頭確實強勁，達到7%。但你是對的，我們的再保險和健康業務絕對是太棒了，球隊絕對棒極了。我會強調這個季度，但也會強調這一年。當您考慮再保險全年 10% 和健康解決方案 10% 兩位數時，這確實是一個全年遠期放大的故事，並且當您考慮圍繞 3x3 計劃和風險的描述時，它已經高度一致資本和人力資本。這兩種方法都對健康和再保險領域的成長做出了貢獻，並在進入2024 年時為我們提供了巨大的動力，但也許埃里克（Eric）對今年和本季度的這兩項工作都有一些了解。

Sure, Greg. It's a great question. And just to reaffirm, just a fantastic team operating at really on fire. I would say in Q4, to go to your question, there was record cat bond issuance for the quarter, but we also had very strong growth in treaty and fac. So across the board, good.

當然，格雷格。這是一個很好的問題。再次重申，這是一支出色的團隊，工作非常火熱。我想說的是，在第四季度，針對你的問題，該季度的巨災債券發行量創歷史新高，但我們在條約和事實方面也有非常強勁的成長。所以總的來說，很好。

And I would say that the trends that we have been seeing over the last couple of years, I think, have an opportunity to continue. Certainly, whether it's climate change, whether it's casualty uptick in terms of loss costs, whether it's opportunities from a profitability standpoint that our insurers are dealing with from their own books of business. The need for data analytics, the need for capital support as they position their primary businesses are all still there, and it's a global answer. So we're seeing it in Europe and Asia Pacific as well as strength in North America and the U.K. So we're really optimistic about the business and feel like it's really well positioned.

我想說的是，我認為過去幾年我們看到的趨勢有機會繼續下去。當然，無論是氣候變化，還是損失成本方面的傷亡人數上升，無論是我們的保險公司從自己的業務賬簿中處理的盈利角度的機會。對數據分析的需求，對資本支持的需求，因為他們定位其主要業務仍然存在，這是一個全球性的答案。因此，我們在歐洲和亞太地區以及北美和英國看到了它的實力。因此，我們對該業務非常樂觀，並且感覺它的定位非常有利。

And then maybe on the health side, just to comment on the health side. Listen, I think same thing, right? We had great wins in the core health and benefit business. And as you mentioned, the consumer business across the globe, whether led by EMEA, U.K., U.S., and it really was new logos for us on core health and benefits. I think on the consumer side, the ability to offer unique products to the consumer part of our corporate clients is really a strength of the firm, and those products evolve, and I think they're meeting the needs of the individual consumer, and we also see that as an opportunity to continue to grow.

然後也許是在健康方面，只是對健康方面進行評論。聽著，我也這麼想，對吧？我們在核心健康和福利業務方面取得了巨大的勝利。正如您所提到的，全球的消費者業務，無論是歐洲、中東和非洲地區、英國還是美國，對我們來說，這確實是關於核心健康和福利的新標誌。我認為在消費者方面，向企業客戶的消費者部分提供獨特產品的能力確實是公司的優勢，這些產品不斷發展，我認為它們正在滿足個人消費者的需求，我們也將其視為繼續發展的機會。

Excellent. And then just lastly on M&A, I guess, in the slides, you talked about potentially growing organically and inorganically there. Do you think M&As are a real possibility in the next year or 2 as you kind of await a conclusion on the NFP acquisition? And if you are interested in M&A, what would be some of those targeted businesses where you'd like to be?

出色的。最後關於併購，我想，在幻燈片中，您談到了潛在的有機和無機成長。當您等待 NFP 收購的結論時，您認為未來一兩年真正有可能進行併購嗎？如果您對併購感興趣，您希望進入哪些目標企業？

So Andrew, just an overall, as Christa described, we continue to look as we think about deployment of capital. Obviously, buyback it's top of the list given how undervalued we are, but we're looking across the board, even as we think about sort of the closure on the NFP front. And again, return on invested capital base, content based in every way, shape or form, but we see opportunities around the world. And our pipeline continues to be very strong. But what else could you add from a capital allocation standpoint.

因此，安德魯，總體而言，正如克里斯塔所描述的那樣，我們在考慮資本部署時繼續關注。顯然，考慮到我們被低估的程度，回購是首要任務，但我們正在全面考慮，即使我們正在考慮非農就業數據的關閉。再說一遍，投資資本基礎的回報，基於各種方式、形式或形式的內容，但我們看到了世界各地的機會。我們的產品線仍然非常強大。但從資本配置的角度來看，您還可以增加什麼？

I mean reinforcing exactly what you said, Greg. We allocate capital based on return on capital. We definitely -- based on the free cash flow outlook in 2024 in the long term, see we are significantly undervalued, and we will disproportionately allocate that free cash flow to buyback in 2024. But we do have a great M&A pipeline, Andrew, to your question. In areas like data analytics, if you think about the acquisition of Tyche, a fantastic acquisition in the data analytics space in areas like health, as Eric highlighted. And so there are a number of areas that are front and set up for clients in terms of meeting their emerging challenges.

我的意思是強化你所說的，格雷格。我們根據資本報酬率分配資本。從長遠來看，基於2024 年的自由現金流前景，我們肯定會發現我們的價值被嚴重低估，我們將不成比例地將自由現金流分配給2024 年的回購。但我們確實有一個很棒的併購通路，安德魯，你的問題。在數據分析等領域，如果你考慮對 Tyche 的收購，正如 Eric 所強調的那樣，這是健康等領域數據分析領域的一次出色的收購。因此，在應對新出現的挑戰方面，有許多領域是為客戶準備的。

And if you see the right opportunity, you wouldn't hesitate to go after it, correct?

如果你看到合適的機會，你會毫不猶豫地去追求它，對嗎？

And Andrew, the thing I would say is it's all about return on capital. And so given how undervalued we are, buyback is the top of the list. And for us to invest in M&A, it's got to be buyback. And so we'll continue to look at everything, and there's certainly some terrific opportunities out there. But we'll continue to be very disciplined on return on capital.

安德魯，我想說的是，這一切都與資本回報率有關。因此，考慮到我們被低估的程度，回購是首要任務。我們要投資併購，就必須回購。因此，我們將繼續關註一切，並肯定存在一些絕佳的機會。但我們將繼續嚴格遵守資本報酬率。

Our next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 Mike Zaremski。

This is Jack on for Mike. A question on organic growth. In your footnotes, it says that organic growth benefited by 1% from a held-for-sale business. Which segment did that impact? And will that have a similar impact until the business is sold?

這是麥克的傑克。關於有機成長的問題。在你的腳註中，它說有機成長受益於持有待售業務的 1%。這影響了哪一部分？在業務出售之前，這會產生類似的影響嗎？

So thanks so much for the question, Jack. We do continue to manage the portfolio actively. These are businesses that we are divesting. And so we think about this as just a better representation of our revenue and business going forward. It is in commercial risk, and we communicated the 1% impact in Q4 and for the full year.

非常感謝你提出這個問題，傑克。我們確實繼續積極管理投資組合。這些是我們正在剝離的業務。因此，我們認為這更好地代表了我們未來的收入和業務。這是商業風險，我們在第四季度和全年傳達了 1% 的影響。

Got it. And then second question. You called out again this quarter decline in global M&A activity as being a source of organic growth deceleration from prior periods. Would you be able to offer any color on what percentage of Aon's revenues touch M&A spend? Is it a big enough driver to impact -- to continue negatively impacting growth given that M&A volumes are still falling by double-digit levels?

知道了。然後是第二個問題。您再次指出，本季全球併購活動的下降是有機成長較前期減速的原因之一。能透露一下怡安集團收入中用於併購支出的百分比嗎？鑑於併購交易量仍以兩位數水準下降，它是否是一個足夠大的驅動力，足以繼續對成長產生負面影響？

Mike, if you step back, it's been the continuation of what we talked about throughout the overall year in terms of sort of where we are. And we would observe, by the way, we (inaudible), if you think about Q4 '23 versus Q4 '22, stayed on 4% and 4%. So it's sort of same year-over-year. Even against this headwind. And we haven't disclosed sort of the detail on sort of the impact that is substantial. We've got an amazing group of colleagues who serve this marketplace.

麥克，如果你退後一步，就我們目前的情況而言，這是我們全年討論的內容的延續。順便說一句，我們會觀察到，如果您考慮 23 年第 4 季與 22 年第 4 季和 22 年第 4 季度，我們（聽不清楚）保持在 4% 和 4%。所以每年的情況都差不多。即使面對這種逆風。我們還沒有透露有關重大影響的細節。我們有一群優秀的同事為這個市場提供服務。

And as Eric has mentioned before on prior calls, we have doubled down in this capability. We fully anticipate this is going to come back in absolute full force. The amount of dry powder out there, as you know well, is extensive. [We'll] remind you, it shows up in our organic when the deal is complete and we see lots of things in the pipeline as sort of things are coming to pass. And we fully expect over the course of 2024 to see a return. But this is meaningful for us, and we've been able to work it very, very strongly and maintain growth across the board, even the face of the segment. But Eric, what else would you add to that?

正如埃里克（Eric）之前在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們在這一能力上加倍了努力。我們完全預計這將全面恢復。如你所知，那裡的乾粉量非常大。 [我們會]提醒您，當交易完成時，它會出現在我們的有機中，並且隨著一些事情即將發生，我們會看到很多事情正在醞釀之中。我們完全期望在 2024 年看到回報。但這對我們來說很有意義，我們已經能夠非常非常努力地工作並保持全面成長，甚至是該細分市場的面貌。但是艾瑞克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Greg, I think you described it perfectly. Just maybe one little bit of color. This week, for example, we held a conference where we had 400 members of the private equity community, the corporate M&A, corp debt teams, the insurance markets, the reps and warranties, tax indemnity type and we essentially were going through the marketplace. Just from a growth standpoint, but also from a product innovation standpoint, recognizing that as the deals return and they will, we want to make sure we're well situated with the clients, with the markets, making sure the products are fit for purpose and are evolving to meet the needs. Not just here in the U.S., but in Europe and other places where -- when it returns, we have made that commitment. We want to hold the team so that we're ready in front and center when the deals start to happen.

格雷格，我認為你描述得完美無瑕。也許只是一點點顏色。例如，本週，我們舉行了一次會議，有 400 名來自自私募股權界、企業併購、公司債務團隊、保險市場、代表和保證、稅收賠償類型的成員參加，我們基本上是在瀏覽市場。不僅從成長的角度來看，而且從產品創新的角度來看，我們認識到隨著交易的回歸，我們希望確保我們與客戶、市場處於良好的關係，確保產品適合用途並不斷發展以滿足需求。不僅在美國，在歐洲和其他地方——當它回歸時，我們都做出了這一承諾。我們希望保持團隊的穩定性，以便在交易開始時我們能夠處於領先地位。

Our next question is from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

So first, just following up on the whole M&A discussion. It seems like capital markets activity is beginning to pick up and the investment banks are seeing that across the board. So wondering if you're seeing any signs of that in your business as well? Or is it more your hope that things will pick up in 2024, but you haven't seen any of it?

首先，跟進整個併購討論。資本市場活動似乎開始回暖，投資銀行也全面地看到了這一點。那麼想知道您的企業是否也看到了這個跡象？還是你更希望2024年事情會有所好轉，但你卻沒有看到任何進展？

Jimmy, we're seeing exactly the same thing you're seeing and you're hearing about. And listen, you can imagine, this is a market we're highly connected to with clients. And with all the banks and everyone else involved in the process. And I would say there's high expectations everywhere. You need only listen to the investment bank quarterly calls to sort of understand that. And so we certainly see lots of potential, and as Eric described, the amount of capital on the sidelines ready to return is high, and we're incredibly well positioned to do that. But I would say, as I mentioned before, it shows up in organic for us as the deals are completed. And so as you see that move, you can expect it's going to be fully reflected in our performance.

吉米，我們看到的事情與你所看到和聽到的完全一樣。聽著，你可以想像，這是一個我們與客戶緊密聯繫的市場。所有銀行和其他所有人都參與了這個過程。我想說，到處都有很高的期望。您只需聽聽投資銀行的季度電話會議即可了解這一點。因此，我們當然看到了很大的潛力，正如艾瑞克所描述的，準備回歸的場外資本數量很高，而我們非常有能力做到這一點。但我想說，正如我之前提到的，隨著交易完成，它對我們來說是有機的。因此，當您看到這項舉措時，您可以預期它將充分反映在我們的業績中。

Okay. And then on commercial brokerage, the organic growth of 4%, I think you mentioned double-digit growth in Asia Pacific, which is obviously good, but it also suggests that the U.S. is very weak and maybe close to flat which seems a little odd given GDP growth, pricing and also just trends that other brokers have reported. So what's really going on in the U.S. that's pressuring the growth to being flat despite some of the tailwinds in the economy overall?

好的。然後在商業經紀業務方面，4%的有機增長，我想你提到了亞太地區的兩位數增長，這顯然很好，但它也表明美國非常疲軟，可能接近持平，這似乎有點奇怪考慮到GDP成長、定價以及其他經紀商報告的趨勢。那麼，儘管整體經濟存在一些順風順水的情況，美國到底發生了什麼，導致經濟成長趨於平緩呢？

Yes. I would start overall, your overall assertion, I can see where you're getting to, but really doesn't reflect what's going on in reality. Obviously, the businesses are very, very different sizes. So one doesn't really offset the other in any way, shape or form. We would come back to the overall commercial risk story is exactly what we described before, which is, listen, we are exactly where we were in Q4 of last year with it was an emerging headwind and became a substantial headwind. We overcame that, and a lot of this is not just commercial risk, but the connection of commercial risk and Reinsurance and Risk Capital and we closed the year. We observed some others in the market seems to be retreating. We're not retreating at all. It's 4% versus 4% of last year and we're going into '24 with a lot of momentum. So we're very excited about the overall prospect as we move into 2024. And maybe Eric can talk a little bit about the risk capital implications of all this is coming together and the potential around it.

是的。我會從總體上開始，您的總體斷言，我可以看到您要達到的目標，但實際上並不能反映現實中發生的情況。顯然，這些企業的規模非常非常不同。因此，其中一個並不會以任何方式、形狀或形式真正抵消另一個。我們會回到整體商業風險的故事，這正是我們之前所描述的，也就是說，聽著，我們正處於去年第四季的情況，這是一個新興的逆風，並成為一個巨大的逆風。我們克服了這一點，其中許多不僅僅是商業風險，而是商業風險與再保險和風險資本的聯繫，我們結束了這一年。我們觀察到市場上的其他一些似乎正在撤退。我們根本不會後退。與去年的 4% 相比，這一數字為 4%，我們將帶著強勁的勢頭進入 24 年。因此，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們對整體前景感到非常興奮。也許埃里克可以談論所有這些的風險資本影響以及圍繞它的潛力。

Yes. Sure, Greg. I think certainly, strong retention, strong new business, both in North America and around the world, and that Commercial Risk business is important. But maybe I'll use it as an opportunity to show the connectivity between sort of the risk capital framework. And maybe I'll talk about the cat bonds that I know we wanted to get some airtime on.

是的。當然，格雷格。我認為，在北美和世界各地，強大的保留率、強大的新業務以及商業風險業務當然很重要。但也許我會用它作為一個機會來展示各種創投框架之間的連結。也許我會談談我知道我們想要一些播出時間的貓債券。

We did the first ever cyber cat bond in the quarter which was a great opportunity for our team working with one of our insurance company clients to take the systemic cyber risk and get it into the capital markets which does 2 things. It actually allows the insurer to open up the amount of limit they provide to clients, which was something that our clients were looking for. And it also appropriately values and places that type of systemic risk into the right capital source.

我們在本季度發行了有史以來第一筆網路貓債券，這對我們的團隊與保險公司客戶合作承擔系統性網路風險並將其進入資本市場來說是一個很好的機會，這有兩件事。它實際上允許保險公司向客戶開放其提供的限額，而這正是我們的客戶所尋求的。它還適當地評估這種類型的系統性風險並將其置於正確的資本來源中。

But the point of it is we were then able to take that ILS structure using the data and analytics that we did to build it and used it to do an ILS structure for one of the largest corporates in Europe who was looking for a traditional sort of cyber program, but wasn't able to get the limit they wanted. So taking something that we did for an insurer, using the data and analytics and structuring, bringing it to a large corporate.

但重點是，我們隨後能夠使用我們建構該結構時所使用的數據和分析來採用該 ILS 結構，並使用它為歐洲最大的公司之一構建 ILS 結構，該公司一直在尋找一種傳統的 ILS 結構。網路程序，但無法獲得他們想要的限制。因此，將我們為保險公司所做的事情，利用數據、分析和結構化，將其帶到一家大公司。

And maybe finishing it because Greg, I know you mentioned NFP in your opening comments and just to tie it through, able to take the same data and analytics that we use to build the cat bond and then the corporate structure to actually power the CyQu product that is built for the middle market, which then attaches a risk transfer product to it. So again, using data and analytics on one topic, just cyber, actually to drive growth in Reinsurance, in commercial risk and ultimately in the middle market part of the commercial risk segment. So that's what's driving the retention. That's what's driving the strong -- the new business. And I think those opportunities exist for us across multiple areas.

也許會完成它，因為格雷格，我知道你在開場白中提到了非農就業報告，只是為了將其聯繫起來，能夠採用與我們用來構建貓債券相同的數據和分析，然後使用公司結構來實際為CyQu 產品提供動力它是為中間市場構建的，然後附加風險轉移產品。再說一遍，在一個主題（僅是網路）上使用數據和分析，實際上是為了推動再保險、商業風險以及最終商業風險領域的中間市場部分的成長。這就是推動保留的原因。這就是推動強者——新業務的動力。我認為我們在多個領域都存在這些機會。

Our next question is from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

First question is about the Vesttoo legal settlement. Can you talk about how much of the $197 million is likely to be the full extent of the impact? In other words, in the press release, you obviously mentioned there is a potential of some of that being sent back to you. What's the progress of that? Can you maybe give a little bit more detail of how confident you are that some of the $197 million will be paid back to Aon?

第一個問題是關於 Vesttoo 的法律解決方案。您能否談談 1.97 億美元中的多少可能是影響的全部範圍？換句話說，在新聞稿中，您顯然提到有可能將其中一些資訊傳回給您。此事進展如何？您能否更詳細地說明您對 1.97 億美元中的部分資金將返還給怡安的信心有多大？

Listen, I was just open by saying that we strategically wanted to draw a line under the issue for our market partners and for ourselves, so that we were able to move forward together as partners. And so the effort was made to come to an agreement with each of the affected parties, so that we could then continue to both one trade forward, but then also begin to work on recoveries together. And so we see an opportunity for recoveries that will happen over time as the bankruptcy process runs its way through. And we're confident that we'll be able to recover a meaningful amount.

聽著，我只是坦率地說，我們從戰略上希望為我們的市場合作夥伴和我們自己在這個問題上劃清界限，以便我們能夠作為合作夥伴共同前進。因此，我們努力與受影響的各方達成協議，以便我們能夠繼續進行一項貿易，同時也開始共同努力恢復。因此，隨著破產程序的完成，我們看到了復甦的機會。我們相信我們將能夠收回大量的資金。

Okay. Second question is on cash flow. I understand that you kind of mentioned this a little bit, is that on your slides, you remove the double-digit growth for the near term, but reiterated the long-term guidance for free cash flow. I'm assuming that it's fair to say this is mainly due to the NFP acquisition over the next 2 years. Is it safe to assume that -- like is that the reason? And can you maybe give a little bit more context in terms of how you're thinking about free cash flow guidance going forward?

好的。第二個問題是關於現金流。我知道您提到了這一點，在您的幻燈片中，您取消了近期的兩位數增長，但重申了自由現金流的長期指導。公平地說，我認為這主要是由於未來兩年對 NFP 的收購。可以安全地假設—這就是原因嗎？您能否就您如何看待未來的自由現金流指導提供更多背景資訊？

Yes. Thanks so much for the question. So firstly, I'd reiterate your point, which is we are incredibly confident in the long-term free cash flow growth of double digits and extremely excited about how NFP accelerates the long-term free cash flow growth of Aon. Adding $300 million in free cash flow in 2026 and $600 million of free cash flow in 2027.

是的。非常感謝您的提問。首先，我要重申你的觀點，我們對兩位數的長期自由現金流增長充滿信心，並對非農就業數據如何加速怡安的長期自由現金流增長感到非常興奮。 2026 年自由現金流增加 3 億美元，2027 年自由現金流增加 6 億美元。

And look, as we think about free cash flow in 2024, we haven't given specific guidance, but here's how I think about it. We expect to grow free cash flow driven by operating income growth and improvements in working capital. We do expect ongoing cash tax headwind. We've communicated the restructuring program, though we haven't given specific guidance around the timing of the cash impact. And we've talked about the impact of NFP. We don't expect to incur material costs before close. And we've said we will expect to incur $12.5 million of negative interest carry expense per quarter until deal close following the transaction-related debt issuance. We've said CapEx will grow in line with the business from $252 million in 2023. We've communicated legal settlements. And as Eric just said, expect those to flow through over the next several years, note -- will be meaningful recoveries.

看，當我們考慮 2024 年的自由現金流時，我們沒有給出具體的指導，但我是這麼想的。我們預計，營業收入成長和營運資本改善將推動自由現金流的成長。我們確實預計現金稅的逆風將持續存在。我們已經傳達了重組計劃，但尚未就現金影響的時間給出具體指導。我們已經討論了非農就業數據的影響。我們預計在成交前不會產生材料成本。我們已經說過，在與交易相關的債務發行之後，直到交易完成之前，我們預計每季將產生 1,250 萬美元的負利息費用。我們已經說過，資本支出將隨著業務的成長而成長，到 2023 年將達到 2.52 億美元。我們已經傳達了法律和解協議。正如埃里克剛才所說，預計這些將在未來幾年內實現，注意——將是有意義的復甦。

Ultimately, we expect to deliver underlying free cash flow growth, and we're targeting double digits as we move past the negative impacts of restructuring and NFP. Very excited about the long-term double-digit free cash flow trajectory of Aon. And lastly in 2024, we do expect a disproportionate majority of the free cash flow to be allocated to buyback, given we're operating on a return on capital basis, and we are substantially undervalued today.

最終，我們預計將實現潛在的自由現金流成長，隨著我們克服重組和非農業就業報告的負面影響，我們的目標是實現兩位數成長。對怡安的長期兩位數自由現金流軌跡感到非常興奮。最後，考慮到我們是在資本回報率的基礎上運營的，而且我們目前的估值被大大低估，因此我們確實預計 2024 年將有不成比例的大部分自由現金流用於回購。

Our next question is from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rob Cox。

Maybe just the first question on one of the higher growth areas of insurance and thinking about the higher growth areas, one of those is currently the E&S space. And I was just curious on how Aon thinks internally about the feasibility of owning a wholesale broker. And is there any reason to think that could potentially be a good fit?

也許只是關於保險較高成長領域之一的第一個問題，並考慮較高成長領域，其中之一是目前的 E&S 領域。我只是好奇怡安內部如何看待擁有批發經紀商的可行性。有沒有理由認為這可能是個不錯的選擇？

Maybe I'll take a stab at that one. Thanks for the question. Listen, there's been explosive growth in the wholesale market over the last -- or the E&S market over the last 5 to 7 years on the magnitude of tenfold. And there's a lot that's driving it, right? Whether it's the lawsuit that you see in the property market, whether it's regulatory pressure on pricing in forms and there's a lot to it. We have consolidated our wholesale relationships so that we're actually working in partnership to get access to those -- to that capital when we need it for our clients.

也許我會嘗試一下。謝謝你的提問。聽著，批發市場在過去——或者 E&S 市場在過去 5 到 7 年裡出現了爆炸性增長，增幅達到了十倍。有很多因素在推動它，對吧？無論是你在房地產市場上看到的訴訟，還是形式上對定價的監管壓力，都有很多內容。我們已經鞏固了我們的批發關係，因此我們實際上正在合作，以便在我們的客戶需要時獲得這些資金。

And some of our competitors do own wholesalers, and that's the way they chose to enter into the marketplace. So it's something we always look at, but we like where we are today, and we like the relationships that we have with our major partner as to date, as we needed. That marketplace tends to flex up and down with different market cycles. And so I would say right now, it is based on the challenging market conditions, especially in the property area, it's significant growth, but it will ebb and flow over time.

我們的一些競爭對手確實擁有批發商，這就是他們選擇進入市場的方式。所以這是我們一直關注的事情，但我們喜歡我們今天的處境，我們喜歡我們與主要合作夥伴迄今為止所建立的關係，這是我們所需要的。該市場往往會隨著不同的市場週期而上下波動。所以我現在想說的是，這是基於充滿挑戰的市場條件，特別是在房地產領域，它的成長顯著，但隨著時間的推移，它會起起落落。

Got it. Appreciate that. And maybe just a follow-up on pricing. I think some of the other brokers have talked about expectations for fairly stable P&C pricing in 2024. I'm curious if Aon shares that view, if there's any other color you would want to add on the pricing trajectory?

知道了。感謝。也許只是定價的後續行動。我認為其他一些經紀人已經談到了對 2024 年財產險定價相當穩定的預期。我很好奇怡安是否同意這一觀點，您是否想在定價軌跡上添加任何其他色彩？

Listen, I think a number of people have commented on it during this earnings season. I would say that we're probably heading towards a market where it's more of a series of markets where you see price competitiveness in certain areas where new capital has drawn in, D&O, for example, would be one that's been called out. You also see challenges still in certain parts of property and people are a little worried about casualty as social inflation, some nuclear verdicts have kind of hit the wires and they're worried about prior year reserves.

聽著，我想很多人在這個財報季節對此發表了評論。我想說的是，我們可能正在走向一個更多是一系列市場的市場，在這些市場中，你會看到新資本吸引的某些領域具有價格競爭力，例如，D&O 就會被淘汰。你也看到財產的某些部分仍然面臨挑戰，人們有點擔心社會通貨膨脹造成的傷亡，一些核裁決有點觸手可及，他們擔心去年的儲備。

So I think rather than just a rising market for all, what we're going to see over '24 and '25 and it's going to be very product specific and very risk specific, which is something that I think plays well to us because it allows to use our teams and our analytics to be able to help them think through how they either want to trade or manage the risk. And so -- but I think that's where we see the market going in '24, '25.

因此，我認為，我們將在 24 和 25 年看到的不僅僅是一個不斷上升的市場，而且將是非常特定的產品和非常特定的風險，我認為這對我們來說很有利，因為它允許利用我們的團隊和分析來幫助他們思考如何交易或管理風險。所以 - 但我認為這就是我們看到的市場在 24 年、25 年的方向。

I maybe just add, Rob, as well. As you think about impact as it relates to our overall performance, bringing it back to Aon, we talked about mid-single-digit or greater. We don't see anything changing that view. Again, pricing is one aspect. We talked about market impact, which includes insured values and a number of other pieces that fit into the equation. Our ability to work with clients in any type of marketplace and our advantage in doing so. And so our view is market will be where it will be. A series of markets, as Eric just described, but our ability to deliver mid-single-digit or greater, we feel like we're going into '24 with a lot of momentum behind.

我也許只是補充一下，羅布。當你考慮與我們整體業績相關的影響時，將其帶回怡安，我們談到了中個位數或更高。我們認為沒有任何事情可以改變這個觀點。同樣，定價是一方面。我們討論了市場影響，其中包括保險價值和許多其他符合方程式的因素。我們在任何類型的市場中與客戶合作的能力以及我們這樣做的優勢。因此，我們的觀點是市場將處於其應有的位置。正如埃里克剛剛描述的那樣，一系列市場，但我們有能力提供中等個位數或更高的業績，我們感覺我們將在進入 24 年後擁有巨大的動力。

Our next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲·格林斯潘。

I wanted to come back to commercial risk. You guys said, I guess there was a 1% impact of business that you put out in dispositions in the quarter overall, right? So that would imply if it impacted commercial risk, that was 2% of the segment, which would bring your organic to 2% before that adjustment. And I know you've highlighted the M&A and the SPAC and the IPO slowdown. And I think, Greg, in response to an earlier question, you pointed that the U.S. probably would not have been flat, right? That there's -- we couldn't really back into that, but what is actually impacting commercial risk away from the M&A and SPAC business that aside from this disposition, the growth would have been 2%?

我想回到商業風險。你們說，我猜你們在整個季度的處置中對業務產生了 1% 的影響，對嗎？因此，這意味著如果它影響商業風險，則佔該細分市場的 2%，這將使您的有機風險在調整之前達到 2%。我知道您強調了併購、SPAC 以及 IPO 放緩。我認為，格雷格，在回答之前的問題時，您指出美國可能不會持平，對吧？我們無法真正回到這一點，但實際上是什麼影響了併購和 SPAC 業務的商業風險，除了這種處置之外，成長將達到 2%？

Christa, you might be on mute.

克里斯塔，你可能處於靜音狀態。

Sorry. So Elyse, one of the things I wanted to clarify was on the held-for-sale item, it is across a couple of solution lines, and we didn't disclose the specifics. But we are divesting this business. And so we think it's a much better representation of our organic revenue growth and the go-forward business. And then as we continue to describe the major impact on commercial risk is the M&A and IPO environment and that has remained depressed. And Eric and Greg have outlined how they see that recovering in 2024. But Eric, would you like to add anything here?

對不起。 Elyse，我想澄清的一件事是關於待售項目，它涉及幾個解決方案系列，我們沒有透露具體細節。但我們正在剝離這項業務。因此，我們認為這更好地代表了我們的有機收入成長和未來業務。然後，正如我們繼續描述的，對商業風險的主要影響是併購和 IPO 環境，而這種環境仍然低迷。艾瑞克和格雷格概述了他們如何看待 2024 年的復甦。但是艾瑞克，你想在這裡補充什麼嗎？

Christa, the only thing I would add, I mentioned it before, is stronger business growth, strong retention and rollover for our clients in North America and around the world. So the underpinnings of the business continue to be very strong.

克里斯塔，我之前提到過，我唯一要補充的是，我們在北美和世界各地的客戶的業務成長更加強勁，保留率和展期都非常強勁。因此，該業務的基礎仍然非常強勁。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as we -- one question I had on Reinsurance, right? Obviously, the lower volume quarter, we went through kind of what drove the growth in the fourth quarter. As we think about the Q1 and '24, right, we've heard about the renewals at January 1, being good. But right, obviously, price increases came down because they were so strong last year. How do we think about Reinsurance organic growth in a still strong but decelerating price increase environment?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當我們——我有一個關於再保險的問題，對嗎？顯然，在銷量較低的季度，我們經歷了推動第四季成長的因素。當我們想到第一季和 24 年時，我們聽說了 1 月 1 日的續約，效果很好。但顯然，價格漲幅有所下降，因為去年價格漲幅如此強勁。在價格上漲仍然強勁但減速的環境下，我們如何看待再保險的有機成長？

Maybe I'll take that one, Greg. Listen, I think there was certainly adequate capital to get the clients' needs done for the 1/1 renewals, then that's predominantly Europe and parts of North America, recognizing that Florida and Asia Pacific tend to be April and June of the year. I would also say part of the risk capital strategy is how do we actually deploy Reinsurance capability into either commercial risk or new sectors. And so just to give you an example, it's kind of early days, but I spent some time in Dubai at the COP conference. And we spent a lot of time working with various government entities around how you bring reinsurance structuring capability to help mitigate the effects of the climate -- change in climate. And so that is core reinsurance, data and analytics, structuring, global access to capital to a whole new sector of potential clients. And so I do think it's -- certainly the main of the business continues to be served by the insurance companies.

也許我會選擇那個，格雷格。聽著，我認為肯定有足夠的資金來滿足 1/1 續訂的客戶需求，主要是歐洲和北美部分地區，認識到佛羅裡達和亞太地區往往是每年的 4 月和 6 月。我還想說，風險資本策略的一部分是我們如何將再保險能力實際部署到商業風險或新領域。舉個例子，現在還為時過早，但我在杜拜的 COP 會議上待了一段時間。我們花了很多時間與各個政府實體合作，探討如何運用再保險建構能力來幫助減輕氣候變遷的影響。這就是核心再保險、數據和分析、建構、為潛在客戶的全新領域提供全球資本獲取。所以我確實認為，主要業務肯定繼續由保險公司提供服務。

But there is opportunity outside of that space to drive new growth for us in what you would consider core reinsurance capabilities. So that -- and you should look, think about fac, you think about investment banking, ILS markets and being able to use that capital for corporates. And -- so it's a very creative group that is well coordinated with our commercial risk clients in the risk capital framework. And so we do see opportunities for continued growth in that space over the coming period.

但在這個領域之外，還有機會推動我們在核心再保險能力上的新成長。因此，您應該考慮 fac、投資銀行、ILS 市場以及能夠將這些資本用於企業。而且，這是一個非常有創意的團隊，在風險資本框架中與我們的商業風險客戶進行了良好的協調。因此，我們確實看到了未來一段時間內該領域持續成長的機會。

I would add, Elyse, though, the momentum of this team in the core space of reinsurance, but more broadly across risk capital has been tremendous. And obviously, the quarter-by-quarter view is helpful. But we look at the annual view. If you think about kind of 10% for the year, that's what's really unique. Not saying where we're going to be next year other than mid-single-digit or greater across the solution lines, which is which we aspire to.

不過，我想補充一點，Elyse，這個團隊在再保險核心領域，但更廣泛的創投領域的勢頭是巨大的。顯然，逐季度的觀點是有幫助的。但我們看的是年度觀點。如果你考慮今年的 10%，那就是真正獨特的了。除了解決方案系列中個位數或更高的目標之外，我們並沒有說明年我們的目標是什麼，這正是我們所渴望的。

And so I think you could take away, you've just heard on commercial risk momentum into 2024. And clearly, as you look at reinsurance momentum into 2024 for all the reasons that Eric described. In the core solution line, but also in risk capital. Don't lose this. This risk capital orientation is a big deal. It is meaningful in terms of sort of what we're doing same on the Human Capital side. The connectivity across Reinsurance and commercial risk creates better solutions. Eric described a couple of them already. And so for us, we feel good about the momentum going into '24 based on the work we did, the groundwork we laid in '23 on Risk Capital and Human Capital.

因此，我認為您可以得出結論，您剛剛聽說了 2024 年的商業風險勢頭。顯然，當您考慮 2024 年的再保險勢頭時，出於埃里克描述的所有原因。在核心解決方案路線上，也反映在創投上。不要失去這個。這種創投導向是一件大事。就我們在人力資本方面所做的同樣的事情而言，這是有意義的。再保險和商業風險之間的關聯創造了更好的解決方案。埃里克已經描述了其中的幾個。因此，對我們來說，基於我們所做的工作以及我們在 23 年在風險資本和人力資本方面奠定的基礎，我們對進入 24 年的勢頭感到滿意。

And then one more, the savings. I know, Christa, you reaffirmed the $100 million for '24. It doesn't sound like there were any that came through in the fourth quarter, so I guess we'll start seeing the savings flow through in the first quarter. Is that correct?

還有一件事，就是節省。我知道，Christa，你重申了 24 年的 1 億美元。聽起來第四季度沒有任何進展，所以我想我們將在第一季開始看到節省的資金流。那是對的嗎？

That's correct, Elyse.

沒錯，愛麗絲。

Our next question is from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 和 KBW。

So Greg and Christa, you've been very consistent about the impact of the slow M&A and IPO market on organic growth. I want to take a step back and say, how do you think about the fact that organic growth is so dependent on one segment of the marketplace that you ended up with such differentiated results relative to peers. Is that a concern?

Greg 和 Christa，對於併購和 IPO 市場緩慢對有機成長的影響，你們的看法非常一致。我想退後一步說，您如何看待有機成長如此依賴市場某一部分這一事實，以至於您最終獲得了與同行相比如此差異化的結果。這是一個問題嗎？

Well, if you step back, Meyer, I just would step back too and say look at the overall performance of the firm year-over-year. In essence, we are up for the year, 6% last year, 7% this year across the firm. You think about commercial risk, again, we were 4% in Q4 last year, were 4% in Q4 this year. Even against a substantial headwind we've described. And what we want you to understand in the context of that is imagine all the things are sort of went behind that. They created that momentum in Q4 and into now 2024 in the commercial risk piece. We've overcome that and maintain where we were last year. So we're very optimistic about the momentum into 2024.

好吧，如果你退後一步，邁耶，我也會退一步說，看看公司同比的整體業績。從本質上講，我們今年的業績成長了，去年成長了 6%，今年成長了 7%。你再想想商業風險，去年第四季我們是 4%，今年第四季是 4%。即使面臨我們所描述的巨大阻力。我們希望你在這種背景下理解的是想像所有的事情都在這背後。他們在第四季和現在的 2024 年商業風險部分創造了這種勢頭。我們已經克服了這個問題並保持了去年的水平。因此，我們對 2024 年的勢頭非常樂觀。

This category is substantial in M&A, and we love it. And we are disproportionately good at it. We are unbelievably good at it from a client leadership standpoint. And so we don't feel bad about that in the least, we love it, and we're going to double down in it. But we also continue to build out other platforms. This year has given us the opportunity to really think that through and really leverage the risk capital orientation.

這個類別在併購中非常重要，我們喜歡它。我們在這方面非常擅長。從客戶領導的角度來看，我們在這方面表現得令人難以置信。因此，我們對此一點也不感到難過，我們喜歡它，並且我們將加倍努力。但我們也繼續建構其他平台。今年讓我們有機會真正思考並真正利用創投導向。

I would highlight, I mentioned it in my comments, the Property Symposium. We got 1,000 clients and markets in the room, and we bring up the Property Risk Analyzer, and this is really a function of reinsurance and commercial risk analytics. And the power of that in the minds of a client were substantial. And so now we've got a suite of capabilities that are going to contribute to commercial risk and the reinsurance as we head into 2024.

我要強調的是，我在評論中提到過，房地產研討會。我們在房間裡有 1,000 個客戶和市場，我們推出了財產風險分析器，這實際上是再保險和商業風險分析的功能。在客戶心目中，這種力量是巨大的。因此，現在我們擁有了一套能力，這些能力將在進入 2024 年時為商業風險和再保險做出貢獻。

So from our standpoint, what we would really like you to take away, and certainly, our feeling and commitment is mid-single-digit or greater, the translation into OI margin improvement, and as Christa described, the translation into double-digit free cash flow growth. We have never had more conviction about each of those 3 categories and are delivering those, and we'll continue to deliver those. And the addition of NFP is only going to strengthen our free cash flow profile over time. So for us, we're always going to be cautious in our approach but resolute, and we feel very good about the momentum going into 2024.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們真正希望您帶走的是，當然，我們的感覺和承諾是中個位數或更高，轉化為OI 利潤率改善，正如Christa 所描述的，轉化為兩位數免費現金流增長。我們對這三個類別中的每一個都充滿信心，並且正在提供這些服務，並且我們將繼續提供這些服務。隨著時間的推移，非農業就業數據的加入只會增強我們的自由現金流狀況。因此，對我們來說，我們的做法始終會謹慎但堅決，我們對進入 2024 年的勢頭感到非常好。

Okay. That's very helpful. Second question, when we look at the strong organic growth in Reinsurance, looking at the breakdown, I think you talked about treaty, facultative and investment banking. Is that component of revenues positive or negative to overall margin?

好的。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，當我們審視再保險的強勁有機成長時，看看細分，我認為您談到了條約、兼任和投資銀行業務。收入的該組成部分對整體利潤率是正還是負？

So Reinsurance is a similar margin business to all of our businesses, which is why we operate Aon as one segment, Meyer. And one of the things we would say part of our Aon United strategy is we are bringing together a lot of the back-office technology, operations and shared service functions into Aon Business Services, which is enabling focus on common and shared operations, technology platforms at scale and then product innovation at scale. And so we're really operating more and more the firm in one segment with Risk Capital, Human Capital, enterprise client and Aon Business Services.

因此，再保險是與我們所有業務類似的保證金業務，這就是為什麼我們將 Aon 作為一個部門來運營，Meyer。作為怡安聯合策略的一部分，我們要說的一件事是，我們正在將大量後台技術、營運和共享服務功能整合到怡安商業服務中，從而能夠專注於共同和共享營運、技術平台規模化，然後是規模化的產品創新。因此，我們確實越來越多地在風險資本、人力資本、企業客戶和怡安商業服務公司的一個細分市場中經營公司。

And Meyer, this is worth a -- really a great question, and really, worth a point of high emphasis. This connectivity that Christa is describing, Risk Capital, Human Capital connected through enterprise client delivered and amplified by Aon Business Services, a big deal. Our ability to continue to drive margin improvement as we did this year with lots of investments into the business is high.

邁耶，這確實是一個很好的問題，而且確實值得高度重視。 Christa 所描述的這種連結性，風險資本，人力資本透過怡安商業服務提供和放大的企業客戶連結起來，這是一件大事。我們有能力繼續推動利潤率提高，就像今年我們對業務進行大量投資一樣。

And the exciting piece is this connectivity on Aon Business Services, 15,000 colleagues working this interconnected into the business is not just continued margin improvement, which you saw, but also the capability to really create outcomes that really drive client innovation options that they didn't have before as well as service enhancements they didn't have before. And so these pieces all come together to sort of create this integrated view which really give us great confidence around not only top line growth, but also margin improvement and the implications on free cash flow.

令人興奮的是Aon Business Services 上的這種連接，15,000 名同事在業務中相互聯繫，這不僅是您所看到的持續的利潤率提高，而且還能夠真正創造成果，真正推動客戶創新選擇，這是他們沒有看到的擁有以前沒有的服務增強功能。因此，這些內容匯集在一起形成了這種綜合觀點，這不僅讓我們對營收成長，而且對利潤率改善和對自由現金流的影響都充滿信心。

Our next question is from the line of Charlie Lederer with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的查理·萊德勒 (Charlie Lederer)。

I guess first question, as we've seen some reserving issues in casualty and financial lines across the industry, wondering if this were to become a more widespread issue for the industry, could that impact Aon's profit commissions? And is that material enough that would impact your margins or organic growth near term?

我想第一個問題是，我們已經看到整個行業在傷亡和財務方面存在一些保留問題，想知道這是否會成為該行業更普遍的問題，這是否會影響怡安的利潤佣金？這些材料是否足以影響您的近期利潤或有機成長？

So I'll say we don't do the profit commission. So that's [not] true for us. And so that's not in our portfolio. But I would say in terms of what's happening in that marketplace, I do think it does reflect some pressure that the insurers are seeing, especially on the casualty side. I would say on the financial line side, it's probably more a question of just supply and demand, where a lot of the new -- into the market as company (technical difficulty) You're just seeing price competition versus any prior loss problems. But I think the casualty piece with medical inflation, they call it social inflation is affecting their prior reserves. So -- but it will not have an impact on us from that perspective.

所以我想說我們不收取利潤佣金。所以這對我們來說並非如此。所以這不在我們的投資組合中。但我想說的是，就該市場發生的情況而言，我確實認為這確實反映了保險公司所面臨的一些壓力，尤其是在傷亡方面。我想說，在金融方面，這可能更多是一個供需問題，其中許多新公司作為公司進入市場（技術難度），您只是看到價格競爭與任何先前的損失問題。但我認為醫療通膨（他們稱之為社會通膨）的受害者正在影響他們先前的儲備。所以——但從這個角度來看，它不會對我們產生影響。

Got it. And then on the Commercial Risk segment. Just wondering as deal volumes come back eventually, does that carry a higher margin where that would help your margins as that becomes a larger proportion of the mix again?

知道了。然後是商業風險部分。只是想知道，隨著交易量最終回升，這是否會帶來更高的利潤，這將有助於您的利潤，因為交易量再次在組合中佔據更大的比例？

Again, I would just reinforce the point, Charlie, around sort of as Christa described, overall margin ability to sort of drive margin across the firm. We've got a very long track record of being able to do that over the last decade plus. And we have enhanced our ability to do that with Aon Business Services. And so we are excited about adding growth as it also helps us deliver on margin. You don't see us really make that trade-off. We really do both. And the profile is ahead of us to do exactly that. And we would absolutely see as our 3x3 plan fits together that M&A is going to be -- and IPOs are going to be the fundamental part of that, and we're excited to have that growth come back.

查理，我再次強調這一點，就像克里斯塔所描述的那樣，整體利潤率能力可以提高整個公司的利潤率。在過去的十多年裡，我們在這方面有著悠久的歷史記錄。我們透過怡安商業服務增強了實現這一目標的能力。因此，我們對成長感到興奮，因為這也有助於我們實現利潤率。你看不到我們真正做出了這種權衡。我們確實兩者都做。而設定檔正是讓我們能夠做到這一點。我們絕對會看到，隨著我們的 3x3 計劃與併購的結合，首次公開募股將成為其中的基本部分，我們很高興看到這種增長的回歸。

Our last question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

I just wanted to follow up on your comments around the expected timing of the close of the NFP deal. Is mid-2025, what you realistically think the deal will close? Or is it just more given the uncertainty you don't want to overpromise because it seems like it's a long lead time for a deal that really, in my view, doesn't entail a lot of antitrust or other issues given the market focus of NFP, but...

我只是想跟進您對 NFP 交易預計結束時間的評論。您認為交易將於 2025 年中期完成嗎？或者只是更多地考慮到你不想過度承諾的不確定性，因為對於一項交易來說，這似乎是一個很長的準備時間，在我看來，考慮到市場的焦點，實際上並不需要太多的反壟斷或其他問題。國家統計局，但是...

Thanks so much for the question. And we agree, we operate in very different segments with very limited overlap, and we fully expect to close in mid-'24. We have modeled the deal very conservatively with a mid-'25 close, and that is us being conservative financially.

非常感謝您的提問。我們同意，我們在非常不同的領域開展業務，重疊非常有限，我們完全期望在 24 年中期關閉。我們非常保守地以 25 年中期結束交易為模型，這就是我們在財務上的保守。

Okay. But in terms of -- and then in terms of sort of processes, are there areas where there is some overlap that we can see from the outside? Or do you not think there's going to be anything related to potential dispositions in order to get the deal approved?

好的。但就流程而言，是否存在我們從外部可以看到的重疊領域？或者您認為為了讓交易獲得批准，不會有任何與潛在處置相關的事情？

So Aon and NFP operate in highly competitive markets. And most importantly, the purpose of this transaction is to grow Aon's presence in the fast-growing middle market segment. And so we do not see overlap, and we again expect the deal to close mid-'24.

因此怡安和 NFP 在競爭激烈的市場中運作。最重要的是，此次交易的目的是擴大怡安在快速成長的中端市場的影響力。因此，我們沒有看到重疊，我們再次預計交易將於 24 年中期完成。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給格雷格·凱斯（Greg Case），讓他發表結束語。

I would like to add a couple of thoughts as we close today, just picking up, Eric and Christa on some of the comments that have been made throughout the call which have been very, very helpful. Just reiterate a couple of things. First, reflect on the long track record we've had delivering on the strategic initiatives and external commitments. And think about it included a number of significant acquisitions and divestitures and a history of successfully executing around the restructuring programs. And that brings us to where we are today, which you can tell from our enthusiasm we're very excited about. You think about the 3x3 plan, each component of our strategy and the execution plan here are fully aligned, totally connected.

在今天結束時，我想補充一些想法，只是聽聽艾瑞克和克里斯塔在整個電話會議中提出的一些評論，這些評論非常非常有幫助。只是重申幾件事。首先，回顧我們在實施策略性措施和外部承諾方面的長期記錄。想想它包括許多重大收購和剝離以及圍繞重組計劃成功執行的歷史。這讓我們走到了今天的位置，從我們的熱情中你可以看出我們對此感到非常興奮。你想想 3x3 計劃，我們策略的每個組成部分和這裡的執行計劃都是完全一致、完全相連的。

If you think about Eric described today, Risk Capital and Human Capital and the capability that comes together with that, the client response to this has been exceptional. As we continue to build that, it's now connected completely through our ability to deliver that into the field, enterprise client and the Aon client leadership model, fully connected. And then this amplification on Aon Business Services came up a few times today. We'd encourage you to really dig in and understand the power of what this really means. 15,000 colleagues in this group well beyond the efficiency that Christa described which you saw in the '23 OI margin of 31.6%. It's really the ability to deliver better content and a better service experience. That combination really is extremely -- it's exciting for us in terms of what it means for Aon and for our clients.

如果你想想埃里克今天描述的風險資本和人力資本以及與之相結合的能力，客戶對此的反應是非常出色的。隨著我們繼續建立這一點，現在透過我們將其交付到現場、企業客戶和怡安客戶領導模型的能力，它已經完全連接起來。今天，怡安商業服務公司的這種放大出現了幾次。我們鼓勵您真正深入研究並理解其真正含義的力量。該小組中有 15,000 名同事，遠遠超出了 Christa 所描述的效率，即您在 23 年 OI 利潤率 31.6% 中看到的效率。這實際上是提供更好的內容和更好的服務體驗的能力。這種結合確實非常令人興奮，因為它對怡安和我們的客戶意味著什麼。

And as Eric described, it really you think about sort of NFP, the opportunity in NFP is there because of their great capability and awesome operating platform, and our Aon Business Services capability. And again, we bring all that together with a $900 million investment to accelerate that and do that over 3 years across the 3x3 plan with whether we're taking more time. So I just want to highlight as the questions come together, they're really connected in our mind and really put us in a unique position to execute against our overall plan and deliver great momentum in '24, '25 and '26.

正如艾瑞克所描述的，你確實會想到某種 NFP，NFP 的機會就在那裡，因為他們強大的能力和出色的營運平台，以及我們的怡安商業服務能力。再次，我們將所有這些結合在一起，並投資 9 億美元來加速這一進程，並在 3x3 計劃中在 3 年內完成這一目標，無論我們是否需要更多時間。因此，我只想強調，當這些問題匯集在一起時，它們在我們的腦海中確實相互聯繫，並且真正使我們處於獨特的位置，可以執行我們的總體計劃，並在24 年、25 年和26 年提供巨大動力。

So I just want to end with that summary and say thanks to everyone for being part of the call today and look forward to our discussion next time.

因此，我只想以總結結束，感謝大家今天參加電話會議，並期待我們下次的討論。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。