怡安集團 (AON) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon PLC's first quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) I'd also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time.

早上好，謝謝您的支持。歡迎參加怡安集團 2025 年第一季電話會議。（接線員指示）我還想提醒各方，本次通話正在被錄音。如果有人有異議，你可以此時斷開你的線路。

It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our fourth quarter 2024 results as well as having been posted on our website.

值得注意的是，今天電話會議中的某些評論可能構成《1995 年私人證券改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明受某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果有重大差異。有關可能導致此類差異的風險因素的資訊已在涵蓋我們 2024 年第四季度業績的新聞稿中進行了描述，並已發佈在我們的網站上。

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon PLC.

現在我很高興將電話轉給怡安集團執行長 Greg Case。

Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. I'm joined by Edmund Reese, our CFO. As in previous quarters, we posted a detailed financial presentation on our website, which Edmund will reference in his remarks.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。和我一起的還有我們的財務長 Edmund Reese。與前幾季一樣，我們在網站上發布了詳細的財務報告，埃德蒙將在他的演講中引用該報告。

We want to start by acknowledging our colleague and friend, Eric Andersen. We announced last month that Eric transitioned from his role as President to serve as a Senior Advisor. And in his 28 years with Aon, Eric played a significant role in advancing our Aon United strategy, and he's been a leader, helping execute our 3x3 plan to deliver more value to our clients and positioning Aon for continued growth. Thank you, Eric, for your leadership and friendship.

首先，我們要感謝我們的同事和朋友 Eric Andersen。我們上個月宣布，艾瑞克將從總裁職位轉任高級顧問。在怡安工作的 28 年裡，艾瑞克在推進怡安聯合策略方面發揮了重要作用，他一直是一位領導者，幫助執行我們的 3x3 計劃，為我們的客戶提供更多價值，並為怡安的持續成長做好準備。謝謝艾瑞克的領導和友誼。

Turning to our financial performance. We continue to build momentum in year two of our 3x3 plan, and our execution is translating into results that are fully in line with our financial objectives. Our team delivered another quarter of mid-single-digit growth, with organic revenue growth of 5%. With this organic growth and the addition of NFP, we delivered 16% total revenue growth, a 38.4% margin contributed to 12% adjusted operating income growth and adjusted EPS of 5.67%. And finally, we generated $80 million in free cash flow and returned $397 million in capital to shareholders. Notably, we also announced that we're increasing our quarterly dividend by 10%, the 15th consecutive year of dividend growth.

談到我們的財務表現。我們在 3x3 計畫的第二年繼續累積動力，我們的執行正在轉化為完全符合我們財務目標的成果。我們的團隊又實現了一個季度的中等個位數成長，有機收入成長了 5%。憑藉這一有機增長和 NFP 的加入，我們的總收入增長了 16%，利潤率達到了 38.4%，調整後營業收入增長了 12%，調整後每股收益達到了 5.67%。最後，我們產生了 8,000 萬美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 3.97 億美元的資本。值得注意的是，我們也宣布將季度股息提高 10%，這是股息連續第 15 年增長。

The quarter's strong operating performance marks the start to 2025 on track and right in line with our expectations. Importantly, we achieved these results in an unpredictable and turbulent business environment that is creating greater complexity for our clients. Within the four mega-trends that we reference: trade, technology, weather, and workforce, trade is currently and clearly top of mind.

本季強勁的營運業績標誌著 2025 年的開局步入正軌，並且完全符合我們的預期。重要的是，我們在不可預測且動盪的商業環境中取得了這些成果，而這種環境為我們的客戶帶來了更大的複雜性。在我們提到的四大趨勢：貿易、技術、天氣和勞動力中，貿易目前顯然是最重要的。

Today, tariffs have had limited direct impact on our business and financial results. Over the medium term, where there could be impact to client discretionary spending, we believe the demand benefit is also meaningful, given the trust we've established with our clients, positioning us to support and help them adapt to new trade rules and to mitigate risk and capture new opportunities.

如今，關稅對我們的業務和財務表現的直接影響有限。從中期來看，這可能會對客戶的可自由支配支出產生影響，但我們認為，鑑於我們與客戶建立的信任，需求效益也是有意義的，這使我們能夠支持和幫助他們適應新的貿易規則、降低風險並抓住新的機會。

But for many clients, tariffs have challenged the global landscape, posing a significant risk. And against this challenge, we are arming clients with real-time insights they need to make better decisions. A few examples include using our supply chain risk diagnostic tool to advise clients on effectively diversifying or reconfiguring their supply chain operations. We're tailoring Credit Solutions like political risk insurance, surety bonds, and trade credit insurance and advising on human capital issues like restructuring employee stock ramps. Further, our expertise in ABS capabilities are helping clients fortify their operations to maintain stability despite trade disruptions.

但對許多客戶來說，關稅對全球格局構成了挑戰，帶來了重大風險。面對這項挑戰，我們為客戶提供做出更好決策所需的即時洞察。一些例子包括使用我們的供應鏈風險診斷工具為客戶提供有關有效地多樣化或重新配置其供應鏈營運的建議。我們正在客製化信貸解決方案，例如政治風險保險、保證金和貿易信用保險，並就人力資本問題提供建議，例如重組員工股票坡道。此外，我們在 ABS 方面的專業知識正在幫助客戶鞏固其運營，以在貿易中斷的情況下保持穩定。

Ultimately, our unique and connected capability and the increased complexity of the global trade environment is driving demand for Aon's Advice and Solutions. On our Q4 call, we highlighted that on the back of strong performance in year one of our 3x3 plan, we were entering 2025 with great momentum, and we've continued to execute in the first quarter. Using ABS capabilities to expand with and better serve clients, attracting client-facing talent in priority areas and utilizing exceptional NFP capability to accelerate middle market growth, which today reached the one-year anniversary as part of Aon.

最終，我們獨特的互聯能力以及日益複雜的全球貿易環境正在推動對怡安的建議和解決方案的需求。在第四季度電話會議上，我們強調，憑藉 3x3 計劃第一年的強勁表現，我們將以強勁勢頭邁入 2025 年，並​​且我們在第一季繼續執行該計劃。利用 ABS 能力與客戶共同拓展業務並更好地服務客戶，吸引重點領域的客戶人才，並利用卓越的 NFP 能力加速中端市場成長，今天，作為 Aon 的一部分，中端市場成長已滿一周年。

And specifically, on NFP, we couldn't be more thrilled to have NFP as part of the Aon family. As we reflect on this year one milestone, we highlight that the business continues to perform in line with high expectations. Our progress, guided by the principle of independent and connected, is right on track. Producer retention continues to be higher than pre-deal, and the NFP acquisition engine continues to add high-quality middle market EBITDA through targeted acquisitions with a strong pipeline for the remainder of 2025. This quarter is a testament to the power of the combined NFP and Aon, as we absorbed the peak impact of an increased share count from the transaction.

具體來說，就 NFP 而言，我們非常高興 NFP 能夠成為 Aon 大家庭的一部分。當我們回顧今年的一個里程碑時，我們強調業務繼續按照高預期表現。在獨立與聯通原則的指導下，我們的進展正步入正軌。生產商的保留率持續高於交易前，NFP 收購引擎繼續透過有針對性的收購增加高品質的中階市場 EBITDA，並在 2025 年剩餘時間內擁有強大的管道。本季證明了 NFP 和 Aon 合併後的實力，因為我們吸收了交易帶來的股份數量增加的峰值影響。

With the acquisition now annualized, we expect NFP's contribution to become even more meaningful as we progress through 2025. Further, on the important people front, we made significant progress on our talent investment by hiring in priority areas like construction and surety. Colleagues are choosing Aon because they see the power of our capability and connected firm enabled by ABS to win new clients and better serve existing clients.

隨著此次收購的年度化，我們預計到 2025 年，NFP 的貢獻將變得更加有意義。此外，在重要人才方面，我們透過在建築和擔保等重點領域招募人才，在人才投資方面取得了重大進展。同事們選擇怡安是因為他們看到了我們的能力以及由 ABS 支持的互聯公司的力量，可以贏得新客戶並更好地服務現有客戶。

Finally, to connect all the dots with one specific client example, we expanded our relationship with a major risk capital client, who is facing soaring healthcare costs due to high-cost climates. We won their human capital mandate using our Health Risk Analyzer to provide insights and predictive analytics on the clients' future claims, helping them manage both their risk and benefits budget. This example highlights the strength of our 3x3 plan to drive financial results.

最後，為了將所有點與一個特定的客戶範例聯繫起來，我們擴大了與一家主要風險資本客戶的關係，該客戶因高成本氣候而面臨醫療成本飆升的問題。我們利用健康風險分析器贏得了他們的人力資本授權，為客戶的未來索賠提供見解和預測分析，幫助他們管理風險和福利預算。這個例子凸顯了我們的 3x3 計畫在推動財務表現的優勢。

As we look ahead, while it's clear we're operating in a complex economic environment, we remain confident in the resilience and strength of our business and financial model. We have a track record of sustained performance across bull markets, recessions, economic shocks, and changing political landscape. And in fact, our integrated solutions, Aon United strategy bring differentiated and substantial client benefit in periods of greatest uncertainty. We view the current environment as an opportunity to further strengthen our client relationships and reinforce Aon as a trusted adviser.

展望未來，雖然我們顯然正處於複雜的經濟環境中，但我們仍然對我們的業務和財務模式的彈性和實力充滿信心。我們在多頭市場、經濟衰退、經濟衝擊和政治格局變化中都擁有持續表現的記錄。事實上，我們的綜合解決方案、怡安聯合策略在最不確定的時期為客戶帶來了差異化和實質的利益。我們將當前環境視為進一步加強客戶關係和鞏固怡安作為值得信賴的顧問地位的機會。

In our daily interactions with clients, we have not seen a pullback in demand, rather, we see an increase in clients looking for guidance and offerings to navigate the increasing complexity of their business challenges. And as a result, we are reaffirming our 2025 full-year guidance, including mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, margin expansion, strong earnings growth, and double-digit free cash flow growth.

在我們與客戶的日常互動中，我們並沒有看到需求的回落，相反，我們看到越來越多的客戶尋求指導和產品來應對日益複雜的業務挑戰。因此，我們重申 2025 年全年業績指引，包括中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長、利潤率擴大、強勁的獲利成長以及兩位數的自由現金流成長。

To summarize, we want to reiterate our conviction about the opportunity ahead, that Aon's Advice and Solutions are even more valuable to clients as they navigate increased complexity in their business. We continue to see momentum across our business, from the high-quality talent we're attracted to Aon to the progress we're making to attack the $31 billion middle market opportunity to major wins with both new and existing clients, and we remain on track to deliver against our 2025 financial goals.

總而言之，我們想重申我們對未來機會的信念，即怡安的建議和解決方案對於客戶應對日益複雜的業務更具價值。我們繼續看到整個業務的發展勢頭，從怡安吸引的高素質人才，到我們在進軍 310 億美元中端市場機遇方面取得的進展，再到與新老客戶的重大勝利，我們仍有望實現 2025 年的財務目標。

Of course, none of this would be possible without our global team. We want to thank our 60,000 colleagues around the world for their commitment to excellence and innovation. Your extraordinary leadership and hard work is what enables us to deliver for our clients.

當然，如果沒有我們的全球團隊，這一切都不可能實現。我們要感謝全球 60,000 名同事對卓越和創新的承諾。您卓越的領導力和辛勤工作使我們能夠為客戶提供服務。

And finally, and to focus further on our long-term strategy and opportunity, we hope you can join us through our Investor Day on June 9. Edmund and I and the senior executives leading our 3x3 plan look forward to sharing details about Aon United as a powerful asset and how we'll continue to drive sustainable long-term growth and create value for our shareholders. We promise this to be a very productive event.

最後，為了進一步關注我們的長期策略和機遇，我們希望您能參加 6 月 9 日的投資者日。埃德蒙和我以及領導我們 3x3 計劃的高級管理人員期待分享有關怡安聯合作為一項強大資產的詳細信息，以及我們將如何繼續推動可持續的長期增長並為股東創造價值。我們保證這將是一次非常有成效的活動。

Now I'll turn the call to Edmund for a more detailed review of our financials and outlook. Edmund?

現在我將把電話轉給埃德蒙，讓他更詳細地審查我們的財務狀況和前景。埃德蒙？

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here discussing the results for the first quarter of 2025. Before jumping into the details, it's important to filter the quarterly noise both within first quarter results and within the uncertainty of the broader macroeconomic environment and emphasize the signals from Q1 that reinforce our confidence in the fundamentals of our business and financial model, supporting our full-year 2025 guidance and ongoing long-term growth.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我很高興在這裡討論 2025 年第一季的業績。在深入探討細節之前，重要的是過濾掉第一季度業績和更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境的不確定性中的季度噪音，並強調第一季度的信號，這些信號增強了我們對業務和財務模型基本面的信心，支持我們 2025 年全年指引和持續的長期增長。

First, our Q1 performance underscores our commitment to making the investments that support sustainable mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, investing in hiring client-facing talent, strengthening and accelerating our ABS capabilities, and increasing our Aon client leaders to expand with our existing clients. Organic revenue growth reached 5% of the quarter, with retention tracking 1 point better than Q1 '24 and market impact from pricing and exposures, reflecting some pressure but slightly better than our expectations and still within our estimated range.

首先，我們的第一季業績凸顯了我們致力於進行投資，以支持可持續的中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長，投資於聘用面向客戶的人才，加強和加速我們的 ABS 能力，並增加我們的 Aon 客戶領導者以擴大我們現有的客戶。本季有機收入成長達到 5%，留存率比 24 年第一季高出 1 個百分點，定價和風險敞口對市場產生影響，反映出一些壓力，但略好於我們的預期，仍在我們的估計範圍內。

Second, relentless execution on our accelerating Aon United Restructuring Program, notably in ABS, is trading 85 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter, creating capacity to fund the investments that I just referenced and strengthening the foundation for ongoing operating leverage from scale benefits.

其次，我們不斷加速推進的怡安聯合重組計劃，特別是在資產支持證券方面，使得本季度的利潤率擴大了 85 個基點，為剛才提到的投資提供了資金，並加強了透過規模效益實現持續經營槓桿的基礎。

Third, we continued our balanced capital allocation discipline, remaining on track to meet our leverage objective while simultaneously continuing our middle market tuck-in acquisition to drive growth and returning $397 million in capital to shareholders through the dividend and share repurchases.

第三，我們繼續推行平衡的資本配置原則，繼續按計劃實現槓桿目標，同時繼續進行中端市場收購以推動成長，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 3.97 億美元的資本。

Additionally, our continued focus on portfolio management positions us to further strengthen our capital position, double down on growth in our core business, and sustain healthy capital returns to shareholders. So the drivers of full-year 2025 growth, investing for sustainable organic revenue growth, continued margin expansion, and our strong capital position remains stable. And we are executing our plan despite the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and the noise in the first quarter, specifically from FX given the dollars, 3% to 7% stronger than it was in Q1 '24, where we have currency exposure, pretty much of additional impact on margin from NFP, higher interest in shares driven by the acquisition of NFP, all items that we communicated as part of our 2025 guidance.

此外，我們持續專注於投資組合管理，使我們能夠進一步加強資本狀況，加倍推動核心業務的成長，並為股東保持健康的資本回報。因此，2025 年全年成長的驅動力、對永續有機收入成長的投資、持續的利潤率擴張以及我們強大的資本狀況保持穩定。儘管宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性，且第一季存在一些噪音，特別是美元匯率波動，但我們仍在執行計劃。美元匯率比 2024 年第一季上漲了 3% 至 7%，我們有貨幣敞口，NFP 對利潤率的額外影響很大，收購 NFP 推動的股票興趣增加，所有這些都是我們在 2025 年指引中傳達的內容。

We have a high level of confidence in delivering on our financial objectives and achieving full-year results in line with our 2025 guidance.

我們對實現財務目標和實現符合 2025 年指引的全年績效充滿信心。

So now turning to the first quarter results and the financial summary on slide 6. You see that total revenue increased 16% to $4.7 billion, and we delivered 5% organic revenue growth in the quarter. Adjusted operating income margin was 38.4%, down 130 basis points as we recognize the impact of NFP in the Q1 '25 results. Adjusted EPS was $5.67, reflecting the impact of higher interest and shares. And finally, we generated $84 million in free cash flow.

現在我們來看看第一季業績和幻燈片 6 上的財務摘要。您會看到總收入成長了 16%，達到 47 億美元，並且本季我們實現了 5% 的有機收入成長。調整後的營業收入利潤率為 38.4%，下降了 130 個基點，因為我們認識到 NFP 對 25 年第一季業績的影響。調整後的每股收益為 5.67 美元，反映了利息和股票上漲的影響。最後，我們產生了 8,400 萬美元的自由現金流。

So let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth on slide 8. Organic revenue growth reached 5% in Q1 2025, continuing to be in line with our mid-single-digit or greater guidance range. In Commercial Risk, organic revenue growth was 5%, with the biggest contribution coming from our international P&C business. Additionally, the growth reflected continued strength in our North American core P&C business. And while deal activity was slower than expected when entering the year, we had a modest tailwind from M&A services relative to Q1 '24.

讓我們來詳細了解這些結果，從第 8 張投影片上的有機收入成長開始。2025 年第一季有機收入成長達到 5%，繼續符合我們中等個位數或更高的指導範圍。在商業風險方面，有機收入成長了 5%，其中最大的貢獻來自我們的國際財產和意外傷害業務。此外，這一成長反映了我們北美核心財產和意外傷害業務的持續強勁成長。儘管進入今年以來，交易活動低於預期，但與 2024 年第一季相比，併購服務為我們帶來了適度的推動。

Reinsurance with 4% organic revenue growth was driven by growth in treaty placements and double-digit growth in both facultative placements and insurance-linked securities. This growth was partially offset by the impact of a multiyear extension with a significant client at higher limits and adjusted commission.

再保險業務有機收入成長 4%，這得益於合約投保的成長以及臨時投保和保險連結證券的兩位數成長。這一增長被與重要客戶簽訂的多年期延長合約（限額更高且佣金調整後）的影響部分抵消。

Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect softer market conditions with April 1 property rates in both the US and Japan, down 5% to 20%. Importantly, we expect full-year organic revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit or greater objective as we see a strong second half driven by higher limits at July 1 renewals, continued growth in our international facultative placements, and strength in our strategy and technology group.

展望第二季度，我們預期市場狀況將會更加疲軟，4 月 1 日美國和日本的房地產利率將下降 5% 至 20%。重要的是，我們預計全年有機收入成長將符合我們的中等個位數或更高的目標，因為我們看到下半年將出現強勁增長，這得益於 7 月 1 日續約限額的提高、國際臨時安置的持續增長以及戰略和技術集團的實力。

Health Solutions also delivered 5% growth, driven by a double-digit increase in our core Health and Benefits business, which was particularly strong in our international markets. The growth was fueled by net new business and market conditions that continue to simulate rising health care costs.

健康解決方案也實現了 5% 的成長，這得益於我們核心健康和福利業務的兩位數成長，尤其是在國際市場上表現強勁。成長的動力來自於淨新業務和市場條件的推動，這些因素持續刺激醫療保健成本的上升。

In talent, we saw high single-digit growth in our Advisory business, offset by lower Data Analytics sales, which were impacted by our data delivery schedule. We still expect our talent business to deliver mid-single-digit or greater full-year growth.

在人才方面，我們的諮詢業務實現了高個位數成長，但數據分析銷售額因數據交付計劃的影響而下降。我們仍然預計我們的人才業務將實現中等個位數或更高的全年成長。

And finally, Wealth was our highest growing solution line in the quarter, generating 8% organic revenue growth, primarily driven by NFP asset inflows and market performance and continued regulatory work across the UK and EMEA. I will note that in the second quarter, we will be growing over and elevated Q2 2024.

最後，財富是我們本季成長最快的解決方案系列，實現了 8% 的有機收入成長，主要得益於 NFP 資產流入和市場表現以及英國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續的監管工作。我要指出的是，在第二季度，我們的成長將超過 2024 年第二季。

Our Q1 organic revenue growth continued to be powered by new business, which contributed 9 points from both existing and new clients. Retention was 1 point better than the year ago, with Commercial Risk steadily improving as we deploy our Risk Capital Analyzers, supporting a net new business contribution of 4 points to organic revenue growth. The net market impact, which measures the impact of exposures and rate contributed 1 point to organic revenue growth, squarely within our 0 to 2-point estimated range.

我們第一季的有機收入成長持續受到新業務的推動，現有客戶和新客戶貢獻了 9 個百分點。保留率比去年同期提高了 1 個百分點，隨著我們部署風險資本分析儀，商業風險穩步改善，支持新業務淨額為有機收入成長貢獻 4 個百分點。淨市場影響衡量了風險敞口和利率的影響，它對有機收入成長貢獻了 1 個百分點，恰好在我們 0 到 2 個百分點的估計範圍內。

Reinsurance was flat as rate declines were mitigated with increased sideways coverage, and rate pressure and Commercial Risk was offset with limit in coverage increases across our book. Health and Wealth had positive net market impact as we continue to see increasing cost in Health and positive market impact in Wealth.

再保險業務持平，因為費率下降因橫向覆蓋範圍的增加而得到緩解，並且費率壓力和商業風險因我們整個保險範圍的覆蓋範圍增加限製而得到抵消。健康和財富對淨市場產生了積極影響，因為我們繼續看到健康成本的增加和財富對市場的正面影響。

And one final point on revenue, first-quarter fiduciary investment income was down 15% versus last year to $67 million as the increased average balances was more than offset by lower interest rates. And as a reminder, we do not include fiduciary investment income in our organic revenue growth calculation.

關於收入的最後一點，第一季信託投資收入較去年同期下降 15% 至 6,700 萬美元，因為平均餘額的增加被較低的利率所抵消。需要提醒的是，我們的有機收入成長計算不包括信託投資收入。

On slide 9, adjusted operating income was up 12% for the quarter to $1.8 billion. Adjusted operating margin was 38.4% in the first quarter, in line with expectations and down from 39.7% in Q1 '24, reflecting the impact of the NFP acquisition, which closed in late April 2024, as well as the interest rate impact on investment income from fiduciary balances. Adjusted operating margin continued to benefit from the scale in our business, particularly through Aon Business Services and from a restructuring initiative to accelerate our 3x3 plans.

第 9 張投影片顯示，本季調整後的營業收入成長 12%，達到 18 億美元。第一季調整後的營業利潤率為 38.4%，符合預期，低於 2024 年第一季的 39.7%，反映了 2024 年 4 月下旬完成的 NFP 收購的影響，以及利率對信託餘額投資收入的影響。調整後的營業利潤率繼續受益於我們業務的規模，特別是透過怡安商業服務以及加速我們的 3x3 計劃的重組舉措。

Specifically, restructuring savings in the first quarter were $40 million, which contributed approximately 85 basis points to adjusted operating margin. Looking ahead, we continue to expect $150 million of savings for the full year 2025 and are well on track to achieve our stated goal of $350 million of run rate savings in 2026. Our organic revenue growth and the actions we are taking through Aon Business Services to standardize our operations and integrate our platforms are creating capacity to fund our growth investments and setting the foundation for ongoing margin expansion through operating efficiencies and scale in our business. We remain committed to driving full-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 80 to 90 basis points in 2025.

具體而言，第一季的重組節省為 4,000 萬美元，為調整後的營業利潤率貢獻了約 85 個基點。展望未來，我們繼續預計 2025 年全年將節省 1.5 億美元，並且預計將實現 2026 年 3.5 億美元運行率節省的既定目標。我們的有機收入成長以及我們透過怡安商業服務採取的標準化營運和整合平台的行動正在創造為我們的成長投資提供資金的能力，並為透過提高營運效率和業務規模來持續擴大利潤奠定基礎。我們仍致力於推動 2025 年全年調整後營業利益率擴大 80 至 90 個基點。

Moving to interest, other income, and taxes on slide 10. Interest income of $5 million was $23 million lower than last year when we earned interest on funds utilized in the NFP acquisition. We expect interest income to be negligible in Q2 '25 compared to the $31 million in Q2 '24. Interest expense of $206 million was up $62 million versus last year, reflecting [$7 billion] in higher debt driven by the NFP acquisition. We expect $209 million of interest expense in Q2 '25.

轉到第 10 張投影片上的利息、其他收入和稅收。利息收入為 500 萬美元，比去年我們從 NFP 收購中使用的資金中獲得的利息少 2,300 萬美元。我們預計 2025 年第二季的利息收入與 2024 年第二季的 3,100 萬美元相比微不足道。利息支出為 2.06 億美元，比去年增加了 6,200 萬美元，反映出 NFP 收購導致債務增加 [70 億美元]。我們預計 2025 年第二季的利息支出為 2.09 億美元。

Other expense increased $23 million year-over-year, primarily due to higher non-cash pension expense. And finally, the Q1 tax rate was 20.9%, 160 basis points lower than Q1 '24, reflecting the geographic mix of income growth and the favorable impact of discrete items. Our tax guidance for the full year remains at 19.5% to 20.5%.

其他支出較去年同期增加 2,300 萬美元，主要原因是非現金退休金支出增加。最後，第一季稅率為 20.9%，比 24 年第一季低 160 個基點，反映了收入成長的地理組合和離散項目的有利影響。我們對全年的稅率預期仍為 19.5% 至 20.5%。

Turning now to free cash flow and capital allocation on slide 11. We generated $84 million of free cash flow in Q1, reflecting strong operating income growth and DSO improvements, partially offset by higher incentive interest and restructuring payments. We continue to expect double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025 and a double-digit three-year CAGR on free cash flow from 2023 to 2026.

現在轉到第 11 張投影片上的自由現金流量和資本配置。我們在第一季產生了 8,400 萬美元的自由現金流，反映了強勁的營業收入成長和 DSO 改善，但被更高的激勵利息和重組支付部分抵消。我們繼續預期 2025 年自由現金流將達到兩位數成長，2023 年至 2026 年三年自由現金流複合年增長率將達到兩位數。

In the quarter, our leverage ratio was 3.5 times, and we continue to be on track to achieve a 2.8 to 3 times leverage ratio in Q4 2025, consistent with the objective that we set when we announced the NFP acquisition. Additionally, we remained active in M&A, continuing our targeted tuck-in acquisitions across priority areas, including middle market acquisitions through NFP, which acquired $19 million in EBITDA in Q1. The pipeline remains strong, especially with opportunities in Commercial Risk, and we continue to expect to acquire $45 million to $60 million of EBITDA to NFP middle market acquisitions in 2025.

本季度，我們的槓桿率為 3.5 倍，我們將繼續努力在 2025 年第四季實現 2.8 至 3 倍的槓桿率，這與我們宣布收購 NFP 時設定的目標一致。此外，我們繼續積極開展併購活動，並繼續在重點領域進行有針對性的補充收購，包括透過 NFP 進行中階市場收購，該公司在第一季度實現了 1,900 萬美元的 EBITDA。通路依然強勁，尤其是在商業風險領域的機會，我們預計在 2025 年將獲得 4,500 萬至 6,000 萬美元的 EBITDA 至 NFP 中階市場收購。

Finally, we returned $397 million in capital to shareholders due to dividend and $250 million in share repurchases in Q1. Additionally, and as Greg mentioned, in April, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.74 per share, marking 15th consecutive annual dividend increases, reflecting the strength of our business and financial model and our confidence in achieving double-digit free cash flow growth.

最後，我們在第一季透過股利和 2.5 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 3.97 億美元的資本。此外，正如格雷格所提到的，4 月份，我們將季度股息提高了 10%，達到每股 0.74 美元，這是連續第 15 年增加年度股息，這反映了我們業務和財務模式的實力，以及我們對實現兩位數自由現金流增長的信心。

I will conclude my prepared remarks on slide 12 with our 2025 guidance and some final thoughts. The first quarter 2025 performance signals a start to the year that is right in line with our expectations. We are executing our 3x3 plan and have momentum that is being reflected in our first-quarter results. We're moving the noise and elevating what matters for our full-year 2025 guidance.

我將在第 12 張投影片上以我們的 2025 年指導和一些最後的想法來結束我準備好的演講。2025 年第一季的業績標誌著新的一年的開始完全符合我們的預期。我們正在執行我們的 3x3 計劃，而這一勢頭已在第一季的業績中得到體現。我們正在消除乾擾，提升對 2025 年全年指導至關重要的事項。

Let me highlight the following: we achieved 5% organic revenue growth in the first quarter, meeting our objectives. So we are reaffirming our mid-single-digit or greater 2025 full-year guidance for organic revenue growth. We continue to get scale benefits through ABS. We are achieving our restructuring goals, and we continue to actively manage the portfolio, so we are still expecting and reaffirming 80 to 90 basis points of margin expansion for the full year 2025. We also continue to expect strong earnings growth for the full year. And I will note that we are excited that today marks the one-year anniversary of the NFP acquisition.

我要強調的是：我們在第一季實現了 5% 的有機收入成長，達到了我們的目標。因此，我們重申對 2025 年全年有機收入成長的中等個位數或更高的預期。我們透過ABS不斷獲取規模效益。我們正在實現重組目標，並繼續積極管理投資組合，因此我們仍然預計並重申 2025 年全年利潤率將成長 80 至 90 個基點。我們也持續預計全年獲利將強勁成長。我要指出的是，我們很高興今天是 NFP 收購一周年紀念日。

And as a reminder, the late April '24 close will impact Q2 '25 margin and earnings just as we expected. For modeling purposes, we are estimating 15% to 18% adjusted EPS growth in Q2 '25. And finally, our earnings growth, including NFP, will contribute to double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025 and a double-digit three-year CAGR for '23 to '26. Our guidance demonstrates the strength and resiliency of our business and financial model.

需要提醒的是，正如我們預期的那樣，24 年 4 月下旬的收盤價將對 25 年第二季的利潤率和收益產生影響。為了建模目的，我們估計 2025 年第二季調整後的每股盈餘將成長 15% 至 18%。最後，包括 NFP 在內的獲利成長將推動 2025 年自由現金流實現兩位數成長，並推動 2023 年至 2026 年三年複合年增長率達到兩位數。我們的指導證明了我們的業務和財務模式的實力和彈性。

We are prioritizing investments that support sustainable organic revenue growth. Our execution in Aon Business Services is supporting top-line growth, creating investment capacity and delivering margin expansion. We expect to deliver strong earnings per share growth and to generate double-digit free cash flow growth, and we continue to have disciplined capital allocation, balancing between high-return growth investment in capital return to shareholders.

我們優先考慮支持可持續有機收入成長的投資。我們在怡安商業服務中的執行正在支持收入成長、創造投資能力並實現利潤率擴張。我們預期每股盈餘將強勁成長，自由現金流將達到兩位數成長，同時我們將繼續嚴格進行資本配置，在高回報成長投資和股東資本回報之間取得平衡。

Finally, as Greg mentioned, my 60,000-plus colleagues and I are excited to host an Investor Day on June 9, our first in 20 years, and I look forward to your participation.

最後，正如格雷格所提到的，我和我的 6 萬多名同事很高興在 6 月 9 日舉辦投資者日，這是我們 20 年來的第一次，我期待您的參與。

So with that, Rob, we hand it back to you and jump into questions.

因此，羅布，我們將時間交還給您，並開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

（操作員指示）安德魯·克里格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)，道明證券。

So Edmund just mentioned the one year kind of anniversary of having acquired NFP. It sounds like things are going really well there. Now that you've got this year under your belt, how are you feeling? Can you give us a little color on the M&A pipeline? I know in the slides, it mentions that it's robust. I mean, any statistics. Could you do a big acquisition if you feel that there's the right one out there? I mean, how are you thinking about M&A for NFP as we move into 2025?

埃德蒙剛才提到了收購 NFP 一週年紀念。聽起來那裡的事情進展得很順利。現在你已經度過了這一年，感覺如何？您能否向我們介紹一下併購通路的情況？我知道幻燈片中提到它很強大。我的意思是，任何統計數據。如果您覺得有合適的收購對象，您會進行大規模收購嗎？我的意思是，當我們進入 2025 年時，您如何看待 NFP 的併購？

Andrew, thanks for the question. And listen, I'm really looking forward to this one. There's a step back to the overall capital allocation piece, and Edmund can comment on this as well. It's really what drives what we do. It drives everything around capital allocation. We're always looking for opportunities to strengthen the firm and reinforce what we do from a return on invested capital standpoint.

安德魯，謝謝你的提問。聽著，我真的很期待這件事。整體資本配置部分又倒退了一步，埃德蒙也可以對此發表評論。這確實是我們工作的動力。它推動著與資本配置有關的一切。我們一直在尋找機會從投資資本回報的角度來加強公司並強化我們的工作。

And the good news is, I'll tell you, it's been a great year with NFP. It's been terrific to have them as part of the overall Aon family. A lot of good things happening in the middle market with lots of opportunities there, as you're indicating, and we're certainly looking at that. And we're certainly going to continue to execute on the programmatic work that we've been doing from an acquisition standpoint, just a superb engine in place at NFP.

好消息是，我可以告訴你們，今年的非農業就業數據表現非常好。能夠讓他們成為怡安大家庭的一部分真是太棒了。正如您所說，中端市場發生了很多好事，有很多機會，我們當然會關注這一點。而且，從收購的角度來看，我們肯定會繼續執行我們一直在做的程序化工作，這只是 NFP 的一個極好的引擎。

But there's a broad set of opportunities we'll continue to look at. You'll note we're making substantial organic investment in the firm. We're making investments on the M&A front, as well as other areas as well. So look for us to continue to do that. And suffice to say, we see lots of opportunities. And we'll always continue to evaluate those in the context of everything that's going on around capital allocation included in the debt paydown.

但我們將繼續關注廣泛的機會。您會注意到我們正在對該公司進行大量的有機投資。我們正在併購以及其他領域進行投資。因此，請期待我們繼續這樣做。可以肯定地說，我們看到了很多機會。我們將始終根據債務償還中涉及的資本配置的所有情況來評估這些因素。

But Edmund, what else would you add?

但是埃德蒙，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Yeah. Greg is exactly right. There's tons of opportunity on the M&A front. But your question is about 2025. And in 2025, as part of our disciplined capital allocation, you know the prime objective for us, the number one objective is to get back to our leverage ratio target. And I think we're well on track to do that in Q1 -- sorry, in Q4 2025. That's the first step. We're very excited the fact of just increasing the dividend. And the remaining capacity is what we'll look to analyze the opportunities that Greg is talking about to ensure that they fit within our overall strategy, our 3x3 plan and have the right financial return criteria before we deploy capital to M&A. And of course, we're going to continue to balance capital return to shareholders.

是的。是的。格雷格說得完全正確。併購方面存在大量機會。但你的問題是關於2025年的。到 2025 年，作為我們嚴謹的資本配置的一部分，我們的首要目標，首要目標是恢復到我們的槓桿率目標。我認為我們預計在 2025 年第一季（抱歉，應該是 2025 年第四季）實現這一目標。這是第一步。我們對增加股利感到非常興奮。我們將專注於剩餘產能，分析 Greg 所談論的機會，以確保它們符合我們的整體策略、我們的 3x3 計劃，並在我們將資本部署到併購之前具有正確的財務回報標準。當然，我們將繼續平衡股東的資本回報。

So in 2025, the key point is, I think we have the right free cash flow generation to get to the right place. From a leverage ratio standpoint, we have the free cash flow that allow us to continue to get $45 million to $60 million in M&A in the middle market space through NFP and the rest. This year, we take a focus on capital return to shareholders.

因此，我認為 2025 年的關鍵點在於，我們擁有正確的自由現金流產生能力，可以達到正確的水平。從槓桿率的角度來看，我們擁有自由現金流，這使我們能夠透過 NFP 和其他方式繼續在中端市場領域獲得 4500 萬至 6000 萬美元的併購資金。今年，我們將重點放在股東資本回報。

Got it. Thanks. And then with respect to Commercial Risk Solutions, a really solid 5%-plus organic revenue growth. I think you mentioned that the market impact was flat in the release. Could you give a little color around the backdrop of how pricing influenced the 5%-plus, how exposures influenced the 5%-plus? It seems one of your competitors reported a deceleration in that area in organic growth and investors felt a little concerned.

知道了。謝謝。然後就商業風險解決方案而言，有機收入成長確實穩定在 5% 以上。我認為您提到發布中對市場的影響是平淡的。您能否稍微介紹一下定價如何影響 5% 以上的背景，以及風險敞口如何影響 5% 以上的背景？似乎你們的某個競爭對手報告說該領域的有機成長出現放緩，投資者感到有些擔憂。

So I'd like to get a little sense of what these different market impacts are more granularly and then why you feel so confident that you continue to do. And I know it's for the whole organization but more focused on CRS. Why you think you can do 5% or mid-single or better?

因此，我想更詳細地了解這些不同的市場影響是什麼，以及為什麼您如此有信心繼續這樣做。我知道這適用於整個組織，但更側重於 CRS。為什麼您認為自己可以達到 5% 或中等水平甚至更好？

Andrew, excellent question and a lot to unpack there because you really talked about Commercial Risk overall for Aon, and then within the context of what's going on in Commercial Risk pricing. So maybe we'll take a -- first start governing thought with Aon and maybe go to pricing, Andrew, if you're okay with that and get Edmund to chime in here as well.

安德魯，這個問題問得非常好，有很多內容需要解答，因為你確實談到了怡安的整體商業風險，然後又談到了商業風險定價的背景。因此，也許我們會採取 - 首先開始與 Aon 一起管理思想，然後考慮定價，安德魯，如果你同意的話，並讓埃德蒙也加入進來。

Sure.

當然。

You're absolutely right. As we reflect on the first quarter, we're very pleased with the progress. And what's under the hood for us is really what's most prevalent. And it's another quarter, as you described, of organic revenue with 5%. It really does reflect the new business and strong retention. That's really the drivers of it. And that mentioned that the market impact was limited but held steady within our expectations.

你說得完全正確。回顧第一季度，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。而我們所知的幕後真相才是真正最普遍的。正如您所描述的，這是另一個季度的有機收入，佔 5%。它確實反映了新業務和強勁的保留率。這才是真正的驅動因素。並提到，市場影響有限，但在我們的預期範圍內保持穩定。

This was growth for us, by the way, across all major geographies, strength in core P&C and especially in international, fantastic. But more than anything, Andrew, really, is we're seeing traction on what we're doing with the 3x3 plan, and since risk capital really delivered through in client leadership and powered by Aon Business Services. And these are our risk analyzers. They're opening doors, broadening discussions, frankly, increasing win rates for us in RFPs, same on retention.

順便說一句，這對我們來說是一種成長，在所有主要地區，核心財產和意外險業務，尤其是國際業務，都表現出色，非常棒。但最重要的是，安德魯，實際上，我們看到了 3x3 計劃的實施取得了進展，而且風險資本確實透過客戶領導力實現了，並由怡安商業服務提供支援。這些就是我們的風險分析儀。他們打開大門，擴大討論範圍，坦白說，提高了我們在 RFP 的成功率，在保留率方面也是如此。

I have been talked about a point increase in retention. This is driven by service enhancements that are substantial, like the certificate platform that we've talked about before. And then the impact of hiring, which is just beginning to really have effect in terms of where we are. We continue to invest and drive that.

我已經討論過保留點數的增加。這是由實質的服務增強所推動的，例如我們之前討論過的證書平台。然後是招募的影響，就我們目前的情況而言，這才剛開始真正產生影響。我們將繼續投資並推動這一點。

So for us, we feel very good about the overall program and progress. And what Q1 did for us in Commercial Risk and really did across the board is just highlight progress and reinforce our conviction around mid-single-digit or greater for the year. So that's the overall business.

因此，對我們來說，我們對整體計劃和進展感到非常滿意。第一季在商業風險方面為我們帶來的變化以及在各個方面帶來的變化只是突顯了進展，並強化了我們對今年中個位數或更高成長的信心。這就是整體業務。

And maybe Edmund comment on that a bit, and then we'll turn back to Andrew's key point on pricing.

也許艾德蒙會對此發表一些評論，然後我們再回到安德魯關於定價的關鍵觀點。

Yeah, sure. I mean, Greg, I think you hit all the points on the Commercial Risk. When we -- even when we go back to the key points on pricing, I think the answer is very much similar and that the growth here is driven primarily by new business. That was 10 points in the quarter when we think about Commercial Risk.

是的，當然。我的意思是，格雷格，我認為你已經觸及了商業風險的所有要點。當我們——即使我們回到定價的關鍵點時，我認為答案非常相似，而且這裡的成長主要由新業務推動。當我們考慮商業風險時，本季這一比例為 10 點。

And the retention, I talked about that being better sequentially and year over year, better than last quarter and better than the year before. And a lot of that is driven by the investments and the deployment of our analyzers, as Greg just had helping in RFPs. That's driven by our enterprise client group going on and expanding with our relationships.

至於留存率，我說過，與上一季和去年相比，留存率都有所提高，比上一季和前一年都有所提高。其中很大一部分是由我們的分析儀的投資和部署推動的，正如 Greg 剛剛在 RFP 中提供的幫助一樣。這是由我們的企業客戶群隨著我們的關係不斷發展和擴大所推動的。

And despite the pressure in clients on certain lines, the outlook in the second half is that we continue to have strength in Commercial Risk particularly as we think about the hires that we've been doing, priority areas like construction, which we think will pick up in the second half and the actions we're taking to drive the limit and coverage increases that offset any modest pricing impact. So we're going to continue to focus on that net new business and the retention component of it.

儘管在某些方面客戶面臨壓力，但下半年的前景是，我們在商業風險方面繼續保持優勢，特別是考慮到我們一直在進行的招聘，我們認為建築等優先領域將在下半年回暖，以及我們正在採取的行動，以推動限額和覆蓋範圍的增加，以抵消任何適度的價格影響。因此，我們將繼續專注於淨新業務及其保留部分。

So Andrew, does that answer your question on the Aon [fund], and I want to come to pricing specific. I don't want to miss that.

那麼安德魯，這是否回答了你關於怡安（基金）的問題，我想具體談談定價問題。我不想錯過這個。

Yeah, that was perfect.

是的，太完美了。

Okay. All right. Let's go to pricing for a minute. And we just want to offer a couple of things here. First, because it's part of all the conversations, it seems of late.

好的。好的。讓我們先來討論一下定價。我們只想在這裡提供幾點。首先，因為它是所有對話的一部分，所以它似乎是最近才出現的。

And look, typically, Andrew, everybody is on unit pricing. That's the sole topic. We'll continue to remind everyone it's unit price and insured values. This is sort of the market impact. That's what Edmund was describing before.

安德魯，通常情況下，每個人都按單位定價。這是唯一的主題。我們會繼續提醒大家它的單價和保險價值。這算是市場影響。這是埃德蒙之前所描述的。

We came into the quarter kind of 0 to 2 expectations. We are at 1. I do want to highlight irrespective of what's going on currently, the long-term trends here, long-term trends, this is critical, are increasing in terms of levels of risk. So this is cyber, supply chain, weather, social inflation. So at a macro level, the need is increasing. So that has implications on sort of overall demand and pricing.

我們對本季的預期是 0 到 2。我們處於 1。我確實想強調，無論當前發生什麼，這裡的長期趨勢，長期趨勢，這是至關重要的，風險水平正在增加。這就是網路、供應鏈、天氣、社會通膨。因此從宏觀層面來看，需求正在增加。所以這對整體需求和定價有影響。

Having said that, we also want to be explicit. It's been described by my colleagues as kind of the current market really reflects the current trading environment. And that's generally we're buyer friendly. And so generally, because there is no really macro market here, it's a bunch of micro markets, property rates are softening a bit, particularly in large property in the US and a little bit more in Asia Pacific as well. And that's really, by the way, not surprising, and that's where the big increases were. A bit softer on the financial line side in cyber as well overall.

話雖如此，我們也想明確一點。我的同事認為，目前的市場確實反映了當前的交易環境。整體來說，我們對買家很友善。因此，總體而言，由於這裡沒有真正的宏觀市場，而是一堆微觀市場，房地產利率正在略有下降，特別是美國的大型房地產，亞太地區的情況也略有下降。順便說一句，這確實不足為奇，而且這也是大幅成長的原因。整體而言，網路金融的表現也略遜一籌。

The exception, by the way, Andrew, on the other side is things like US auto and [excess casually], which again, lots of different reasons why that's going up and increasing. And then we would say, middle market, similar additions on the stresses, absolutely maybe it's slightly more muted because the segment doesn't have the same peaks and valleys as some of the large market pieces but certainly the same pressures.

順便說一下，安德魯，另一方面的例外是美國汽車和[隨意超額]之類的東西，同樣，有很多不同的原因導致它們上漲和增加。然後我們會說，中端市場也面臨類似的壓力，但絕對可能稍微溫和一些，因為這個細分市場不像一些大型市場那樣有高峰和低谷，但肯定有同樣的壓力。

But as we always do, we're working with clients to understand the conditions and improve their programs, change limits, buy coverages they lost in the hard market -- reduced -- all those things you can imagine, Andrew, we're working on. And then one of the things that was interesting is alternative risk transfer continues to be highly prevalent. And the work we're doing with Reinsurance in the Commercial Risk arena on alternatives transfer is substantial.

但正如我們一貫所做的那樣，我們正在與客戶合作，了解情況並改進他們的計劃，改變限制，購買他們在艱難的市場中失去的保險——減少——所有這些你能想像到的事情，安德魯，我們都在努力。有趣的是，替代風險轉移仍然非常普遍。我們在商業風險領域與再保險在替代轉移方面所做的工作非常艱鉅。

But net-net, as it relates to Aon, I just want to finish with Edmund's point, for us, it's about client wins and retention. And that's exceptionally strong and the 3x3 plan has really supported us, which is why in this environment, we're reinforcing our conviction around mid-single-digit or greater.

但總體而言，就 Aon 而言，我只想以 Edmund 的觀點來結束，對我們來說，這關乎客戶的贏得和保留。這是非常強勁的，3x3 計劃確實支持了我們，這就是為什麼在這種環境下，我們加強了對中等個位數或更高的信心。

But that's a little more color on the pricing side.

但在定價方面，這有點太詳細了。

Great to hear and very helpful.

很高興聽到這個消息，非常有幫助。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Thanks. My first question is on Reinsurance. I know, Edmund, you mentioned a multiyear extension that I think had a negative impact in the quarter. I was hoping to get more details and quantification there.

謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於再保險的。我知道，埃德蒙，你提到了多年的延期，我認為這對本季產生了負面影響。我希望在那裡獲得更多細節和量化資訊。

And then I think you pointed to some softer conditions in the second quarter. So I guess, the expectation Q2 could be similar to Q1, and then things pick up in the back half. I was hoping to kind of flush both of those things out relative to Reinsurance.

然後我認為您指出了第二季度的一些較為疲軟的情況。所以我猜測，第二季的預期可能與第一季相似，然後下半年情況會好轉。我希望能夠解決與再保險相關的兩件事。

So maybe, Elyse, if you don't mind, there's a little macro point on kind of the overall Reinsurance and what the first quarter told us because it's one of the things that sort of Edmund's target, which is really understanding kind of the underlying kind of performance factors that we saw in Q1. There's obviously a lot of noise for us as we closed NFP and did all the pieces around that. But Reinsurance is no different than Commercial Risk, exceptionally positive in terms of what we saw and what's indicated for the rest of the year, which is why, again, we are at the same expectation, mid-single-digit or greater. And net-net, think about what's going on in Reinsurance right now for us.

因此，Elyse，如果您不介意的話，也許可以談談整體再保險以及第一季告訴我們的一些宏觀問題，因為這是 Edmund 的目標之一，即真正了解我們在第一季度看到的潛在績效因素。當我們結束非農就業數據並完成所有相關工作時，我們顯然聽到了很多噪音。但再保險與商業風險沒有什麼不同，從我們所看到的情況和對今年剩餘時間的預測來看，再保險的前景異常樂觀，這就是為什麼我們再次保持同樣的預期，即中等個位數或更高。總的來說，想想現在我們的再保險業的情況如何。

We're building on core momentum. And really, this is what we do at a segment level with our clients but really differentiating on analytics. And what we've invested in, and business services and with risk capital has been really, for us, meaningful, real (inaudible) force. We're winning more than ever before in this context on the Reinsurance and the Commercial Risk side.

我們正在鞏固核心勢頭。事實上，這就是我們在客戶細分層面所做的事情，但在分析上確實有所區別。我們所投資的商業服務和創投對我們來說確實是有意義的、真正​​的（聽不清楚）力量。在此背景下，我們在再保險和商業風險方面取得的勝利比以往任何時候都多。

And this risk capital construct is also meaningful. The level of cat bonds and parametric work we're doing is exceptional and driven by risk capital, and the strategic and technology group Edmund mentioned also reinforcing and driving progression. And so the 4%, which -- 7% in the first quarter of last year, it's treaty placements, as Edmund described. It's double-digit growth in facultative. It's another double-digit growth on insurance-linked securities. So in net-net, strong progression overall.

而這種風險資本的建構也是有意義的。我們正在進行的巨災債券和參數化工作水準非常高，並且由創投驅動，而艾德蒙提到的策略和技術團隊也在加強和推動進步。因此，正如埃德蒙所描述的，4%（去年第一季為 7%）是條約安排。兼性就業人數實現了兩位數的成長。保險連結證券再次達到兩位數成長。因此，從淨值來看，整體而言，進步強勁。

And then I'll just highlight, Edmund mentioned the piece around the multiyear extension. This was a phenomenal outcome for this client. This was a massive -- let me just say, massive program. And what we did is what we always do. We talk about value creation and what we're trying to do on their behalf, and then we get paid on value. By the way, it affects timing sometimes. And in this case, in Q1, it affected timing. But overall, the impact for this client was huge. The impact for Aon is huge.

然後我要強調的是，艾德蒙提到了有關多年延期的部分。對於該客戶來說，這是一個非凡的結果。這是一個龐大的——我只能說，這是一個龐大的計劃。我們所做的正是我們一直在做的事。我們談論價值創造以及我們為他們所做的努力，然後我們根據價值獲得報酬。順便說一句，它有時會影響時間。在這種情況下，在第一季度，它影響了時間安排。但總體而言，這對該客戶的影響是巨大的。這對怡安的影響是巨大的。

We're excited about this progression, but it showed up in Q1. But you shouldn't confuse the Q1 impact with the overall year opportunity and sort of what it's going to look like over time, and that gets us back to mid-single-digit or greater. So anyway, that's a bit of a background. But Edmund, anything else you'd add and make sure (inaudible).

我們對這一進展感到非常興奮，但它是在第一季就顯現出來的。但你不應該將第一季度的影響與全年的整體機會相混淆，也不應該將第一季度的影響與全年的整體機會相混淆，而應該將第一季度的影響與全年的整體機會相混淆，這樣我們的增長率就會回到中等個位數或更高。無論如何，這只是一點背景知識。但是 Edmund，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？（聽不清楚）。

I just want to emphasize the last point that you made. We obviously don't have the continued impact -- client impact, which is an extremely positive thing for us exactly what we want to do, extend and expand with our clients. So Elyse, I want to be clear in your question that you shouldn't expect that impact, obviously, the carryover into Q2. And while we do have line of sight into, just as you've heard others talk about the US and Japan April 1 renewals, I think the strong performance that we had in Q1 ex that extension, you should see flow over into Q2.

我只是想強調你提出的最後一點。我們顯然沒有持續的影響——對客戶的影響，這對我們來說是一件非常積極的事情，這正是我們想要與客戶一起做的、延伸和擴展的事情。所以 Elyse，我想在你的問題中明確表示，你不應該期望這種影響顯然會延續到第二季​​。雖然我們確實看到了前景，但正如您聽到其他人談論美國和日本 4 月 1 日的續約一樣，我認為我們在第一季度的強勁表現（不包括續約）應該會延續到第二季​​度。

And then when we go out in the second half of the year, this is a business where we do have line of sight. We can see sort of like where we're tracking. And when I look at the second half of the year, the July 1 renewals, we have good line of sight to, and that looks strong, increased limit. We also see the continued growth in our international facultative placements, one of the things that was very strong in Q1 as well and the STG group. So I think Q2 through Q4 should be in line with our mid-single-digit guidance in the overall year in line with that as well.

然後，當我們在下半年出去的時候，這是我們確實有視線的業務。我們可以看到我們正在追蹤的地方。當我展望下半年，即 7 月 1 日的續約時，我們有一個很好的前景，而且看起來很強勁，增加限制。我們也看到我們的國際兼職職位持續成長，這也是第一季和 STG 集團表現非常強勁的因素之一。因此，我認為第二季到第四季的業績應該與我們全年中等個位數的預期一致。

Thanks. And then my follow-up question is on free cash flow. I just wanted to, A, confirm right, that it's double-digit growth rate on -- I think it's on the reported $2.8 billion from ['24]. So I guess, the NFP contribution will help Aon debt to the double digits. I just want to make sure that I'm thinking about the free cash flow growth off of the right base and what the message is.

謝謝。我的後續問題是關於自由現金流。我只是想確認一下，這是兩位數的成長率——我認為是報告的 28 億美元['24]。因此我猜測，NFP 的貢獻將幫助怡安集團的債務達到兩位數。我只是想確保我所考慮的自由現金流成長是基於正確的基礎以及資訊是什麼。

And is there any seasonality to the back three quarters that we need to think about in terms of hitting that double-digit target for the full year?

為了實現全年兩位數的目標，我們是否需要考慮後三個季度的季節性因素？

The short answer is yes. You get it exactly right. That we are talking about the baseline of 2024, double-digit growth. I think you'll see growth -- that double-digit growth, a contribution from NFP but also our core operating performance and the continued improvement that we have on DSO.

簡短的回答是肯定的。你說得完全正確。我們討論的是2024年的基準，也就是兩位數的成長。我認為你會看到成長——兩位數的成長，這不僅是 NFP 的貢獻，也是我們的核心營運表現和 DSO 的持續改善。

There's two things in Q1. You asked the question about seasonality. So there are two things I'll point out to you in Q1 that's going on.

Q1 中有兩件事。您問的是有關季節性的問題。因此，我想向你們指出第一季發生的兩件事。

We still have the integration costs from NFP. We have restructuring payments. I called that out related to our AAU program, and we have higher incentives. We've been hiring more. We had strong performance in Q2 '24. And it's typically our lowest of free cash flow in Q1. That's what I would call out from seasonality.

我們仍需要承擔 NFP 帶來的整合成本。我們有重組付款。我認為這與我們的 AAU 計劃有關，我們有更高的激勵措施。我們一直在招募更多員工。我們在 2024 年第二季表現強勁。這通常是我們第一季自由現金流最低的時候。這就是我從季節性角度所要表達的意思。

But as we go into the back half of the year, you have two things correct. You have the right denominator, the right starting baseline. You have the NFP contribution, but I'd also add the contribution from the core performance of the business, both on the working capital side and the operating income side.

但當我們進入下半年時，有兩件事是正確的。您有正確的分母，正確的起始基線。您有 NFP 的貢獻，但我也會加入來自業務核心績效的貢獻，包括營運資本方面和營業收入方面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I believe -- I think it was Edmund. You'd spoken about some of the hires. And I know you guys added, I think it was 4% new hires and certain revenue-producing roles last year. And it sounded like we haven't really gotten the contribution from those new hires in the first quarter here. It doesn't sound like it's really going to come next quarter, but you're really pointing to the second half. So I'm wondering if you could just elaborate on some of the head count growth and the productivity enhancement as we think about the cadence of the organic growth within Commercial Risk.

我相信——我認為是艾德蒙。您已經談到了一些聘僱事宜。我知道你們也補充說，我認為去年有 4% 的新進員工和某些創收職位。聽起來我們在第一季並沒有真正從這些新員工那裡得到貢獻。聽起來它不會真的在下個季度到來，但你實際上指的是下半年。因此，我想知道，當我們考慮商業風險內部有機成長的節奏時，您是否可以詳細說明員工人數的成長和生產力的提高。

Yeah. Look, the first point I'd make is that we're a growth company, and so we're committed to making the investments in the headcount. We did talk about that growth number last year in '24. And frankly, we want to do better than that as we come into 2025, and we're off to a great start in the right areas, in areas like Health, Construction, those places coming into '25. I think it's still -- the short answer to your question is still too early to see the exact impact.

是的。瞧，我要說的第一點是，我們是一家成長型公司，因此我們致力於對員工團隊進行投資。我們去年（24年）確實討論過這個成長數字。坦白說，我們希望在進入 2025 年時做得更好，我們在正確的領域已經有了良好的開端，例如醫療、建築等領域，這些都是進入 2025 年的領域。我認為——對你的問題的簡短回答是，現在還為時過早，無法看到確切的影響。

And let me maybe be a little bit more specific with that. When we look at the Q1 vintages from 2024, we're now in months 12 to 15 for those vintages. Still early, I talked about starting to see the impact on contribution to growth between months 18 to 24 and beyond as we look at it. But the early signs suggest that the average revenue for these early vintages are coming in at a profitable high return. And I expect that they'll soon be a contribution to the organic revenue growth.

讓我更具體地解釋一下這一點。當我們查看 2024 年第一季的年份時，我們現在正處於這些年份的第 12 至 15 個月。現在還為時過早，我談到了開始看到 18 至 24 個月及以後對成長貢獻的影響。但早期跡象表明，這些早期葡萄酒的平均收入將帶來豐厚的高回報。我預計它們很快就會對有機收入成長做出貢獻。

We did point out in Q4, we saw growth in some of those priority areas that was quite strong in Construction and Energy. So all the signs are suggesting that we continue to lean into the investment for priority hires in these areas as we move forward. And we'll share information as we see the metrics evolve.

我們確實在第四季度指出，我們看到一些優先領域的成長相當強勁，其中在建築和能源領域尤其如此。因此，所有跡像都表明，隨著我們前進，我們將繼續傾向於在這些領域優先招聘的投資。隨著指標的演變，我們將分享資訊。

And two things I'd just add to that, David, if I could, is -- two messages embedded in Edmund's comments. One is, this is a continuing process around priority areas. And those will evolve over time, but we are going to continue to drive in a continuous process.

大衛，如果可以的話，我只想補充兩點，那就是埃德蒙的評論中蘊含的兩個信息。一是，這是一個圍繞優先領域的持續進程。這些都會隨著時間的推移而發展，但我們將繼續推動這持續的過程。

The second is, you don't hear us backing up on margin as it relates to this. This is literally -- we're making these investments in the context of everything else we're doing. We're covering them with ABS capability and efficiency that comes with the positive pieces around revenue with ABS as well. And so for us, this is just part of an investment we are now prepared to make on an ongoing basis. It strengthens our firm, and reinforces accretion on the top line, but also in performance NOI. And finally, the piece I'd just highlight is -- listen, we're not bringing these folks in as account. They're coming in to be better.

第二，您沒有聽到我們在與此相關的保證金方面做出讓步。這實際上是——我們在所做的其他一切事情的背景下進行這些投資。我們為他們提供 ABS 的能力和效率，同時也為 ABS 的收入帶來正面影響。因此對我們來說，這只是我們現在準備持續進行的投資的一部分。它不僅增強了我們的實力，而且增強了營業額的成長，同時也提高了淨營業收入 (NOI) 的業績。最後，我要強調的一點是──聽著，我們不會把這些人納入考慮範圍。他們來到這裡是為了變得更好。

When we actually identify capability and in priority areas, it's kind of how do we use our analyzers and our retention and all the pieces that come with is essentially not bigger, not bigger, better. And by the way, that's one of the reasons people are excited to be part of the firm when they see the $1 billion spend on Aon Business Services and the analyzers and the service pieces, it's why we've been able to attract talent in some of these areas. But it's important you understand the investment in the context of our overall strategy.

當我們真正確定能力和優先領域時，我們會考慮如何使用我們的分析儀和我們的保留，以及隨之而來的所有部分，本質上不是更大，不是更大，而是更好。順便說一句，當人們看到怡安在商業服務、分析儀和服務方面投入 10 億美元時，他們很興奮能成為公司的一員，這也是我們能夠在某些領域吸引人才的原因。但重要的是您要在我們的整體策略背景下理解這項投資。

Got it. Thanks. And then maybe just another question, more of a numbers question, just on the margin. So I guess I'm just wondering (inaudible) with the NFP deal and sort of resetting the base. Can we get sort of the combined margin base for, I guess, as we should think about it for the first quarter, just given 2024 and how much sort of core margin improvement or lack thereof there would have been this quarter sort of on a combined basis?

知道了。謝謝。然後也許只是另一個問題，更多的是數字問題，只是在邊緣。所以我想我只是對 NFP 交易和重置基礎感到疑惑（聽不清楚）。我想，我們能否得到第一季的綜合利潤率基數，因為我們應該考慮 2024 年的第一季度，以及綜合來看本季核心利潤率將有多少提高或降低？

I know, Edmund, you had called out the 85 basis points from cost saves, but I was hoping to just get a little bit more color there as we think about the ramp up over the next several quarters.

我知道，埃德蒙，您已經提到了成本節省的 85 個基點，但我希望在我們考慮未來幾個季度的增長時能夠對此進行更詳細的說明。

I want to give you the short answer just so that we can clarify is not the lack thereof, as you just mentioned there. Adjusting for the three months of NFP would have had us at over 100 basis points of margin expansion in Q1. Think about that relative to 90 basis points in '24. Think about that relative to the decade before '24 being at 126 basis points. So continued margin expansion is what you're seeing in our business when you take a look at the impact of NFP there. The areas that focus on are exactly what we gave in the 2025 guidance.

我想給你一個簡短的回答，以便我們可以澄清，並不是缺乏，正如你剛才提到的。根據三個月的非農就業數據進行調整後，第一季的利潤率將擴大 100 個基點以上。想想看，相對於 24 年的 90 個基點。想想看，相對於 24 年之前的十年，利率為 126 個基點。因此，當您觀察非農業就業數據的影響時，您會發現我們的業務利潤率持續擴大。重點關注的領域正是我們在 2025 年指導中所給予的。

And I would say, those four areas that I talked about are right in line with what we are expecting or slightly better. We talked about the NFP impact three additional months in Q1, four additional months for the year, offset by the OpEx synergies, diluting margins by 20 basis points. There's no reason to think that we are not going to be at those levels or better. The second impact we talked about was the interest rate impact on fiduciary investment income. If you look at the average rate on fiduciary investment income, that was 110 basis points lower in the quarter. So that margin impact was right in line with the 20 basis points that we talked about there.

我想說，我談到的這四個面向完全符合我們的預期，或略好。我們討論了 NFP 對第一季額外三個月、全年額外四個月的影響，但這些影響被營運支出綜效所抵消，導致利潤率下降 20 個基點。沒有理由認為我們無法達到這些水平或更好。我們談到的第二個影響是利率對信託投資收益的影響。如果你看一下信託投資收入的平均利率，你會發現本季該利率下降了 110 個基點。因此，利潤率影響與我們討論的 20 個基點完全一致。

I did point out in my prepared remarks the continued performance on the restructuring from AAU, so 85 basis points. So that's exactly what we said in the guidance.

我在準備好的發言中確實指出了 AAU 重組的持續表現，即 85 個基點。這正是我們在指南中所說的。

And then I think just the operating leverage, Greg made an extremely important point, his second point in the last answer about ABS creating capacity to fund investments. That's the operating leverage in our business. That's what I think is 35 to 45 basis points. And that's why we're confident in reaffirming and maintaining the 80 to 90 basis points. So I think the way you think about it is that we are, in fact, expanding both in the core business and in NFP, given the margin synergies.

然後我認為只是經營槓桿，格雷格提出了一個非常重要的觀點，他在上一個回答的第二點是關於 ABS 創造投資融資能力。這就是我們業務中的經營槓桿。我認為是 35 到 45 個基點。這就是為什麼我們有信心重申並維持 80 至 90 個基點。所以我認為，您這樣想是因為我們實際上正在擴大核心業務和 NFP，因為存在利潤協同效應。

Great. Thank you for that color.

偉大的。謝謝你的那個顏色。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅紐瑟姆、派珀桑德勒。

Just want to revisit a couple of the major topics here. The first one, and I apologize if I missed it, was the NFP, was it accretive to organic growth in the quarter? And I guess, as sort of a better question, did it have a bigger impact in the Retirement Benefits businesses versus Commercial because if I recall that its business was weighted more towards the Health business than it was in the P&C business?

只是想重新討論這裡的幾個主要主題。第一個問題是非農就業數據，如果我錯過了，我深感抱歉，它是否對本季的有機成長有所促進？我想，這是一個更好的問題，它對退休福利業務的影響是否比商業業務更大，因為如果我沒記錯的話，它的業務更側重於健康業務，而不是財產和意外傷害業務？

Paul, appreciate it. Thanks for the question. Listen, as we step back, just to reiterate, it's been an amazing year. NFP has brought such great capability and content. It's been great to watch NFP connect with Aon, Aon to connect with NSP, and we've seen meaningful opportunities in new client situations, in existing client situations as NFP is utilizing Aon client treaty and some of the capabilities we've got, but also as Aon has benefited from the incredible client connections that NFP has as well.

保羅，非常感謝。謝謝你的提問。聽著，我們回顧一下，只是想重申一下，這是令人驚嘆的一年。NFP 帶來瞭如此巨大的能力和內容。很高興看到 NFP 與 Aon 建立聯繫，Aon 與 NSP 建立聯繫，我們在新客戶和現有客戶中都看到了有意義的機會，因為 NFP 正在利用 Aon 客戶條約和我們擁有的一些能力，而 Aon 也受益於 NFP 擁有的令人難以置信的客戶關係。

And so this is a long-winded way of saying, listen, this is about Aon. So in the end, yes, there was 5% organic contributions from NFP, fantastic contributions for Aon, fantastic. But more important, Q1 for us was an indicator of what's to come. That's true on the 3x3 and the analyzers and the core business is also true on the NFP front. So it was really across the board, good contribution on the NFP front. Good contribution on the overall Aon front. And really across the board in terms of businesses, Commercial Risk, Wealth, and Health all across the pieces. So we're not going to be breaking out NFP as a construct because there's just too much connectivity that's happening, and the connectivity is not worth parsing.

所以，這是一種冗長的說法，聽著，這是關於怡安的。所以最後，是的，NFP 貢獻了 5%，這對 Aon 來說非常棒。但更重要的是，對我們來說，第一季是未來發展的風向標。這對於 3x3 和分析儀以及核心業務來說都是正確的，對於 NFP 方面也是如此。因此，這對 NFP 而言確實是一個全面的良好貢獻。對整個 Aon 領域做出了良好貢獻。並且真正涵蓋了業務、商業風險、財富和健康等各個方面。因此，我們不會將 NFP 作為一個結構分開，因為其中發生的連接太多，而且這些連接不值得解析。

We essentially want to reinforce connectivity as opposed to breakout separate pieces. And this is the beauty of independent and connected. Independent and the day-to-day in the field and what's happening in the leadership and the M&A engine and all the pieces around that, really connected from the standpoint of content and capability in ways that actually helps our producers do more with clients every day. So just suffice it to say, all contributed, all on track and all -- we're very excited about the high expectations we had as we came into the year.

我們本質上想要加強連通性，而不是分離各個部分。這就是獨立與連結的美妙之處。獨立和日常領域情況以及領導層和併購引擎中發生的事情以及所有相關部分，從內容和能力的角度真正聯繫在一起，實際上幫助我們的製作人每天與客戶做更多的事情。所以，可以說，所有人都做出了貢獻，一切都按計劃進行，我們對今年的期望感到非常興奮。

Great. And then revisiting pricing a little bit, one of the questions in the quarter for the industry has been what appears to be differentiating behavior between large account commercial and small and mid. And I'm just curious if you have any thoughts upon that, if that was indeed what you're seeing as well within your book and if you think that that's a potential continuing trend in the future.

偉大的。然後稍微重新討論一下定價，本季該行業面臨的一個問題是，大型商業帳戶和中小型商業帳戶之間的行為有何區別。我只是好奇您對此有何看法，這是否確實是您在書中所看到的，以及您是否認為這是未來潛在的持續趨勢。

Yeah. We would say -- Paul, the point I was trying to make before, Andrew's question was really around, look, generally, the trading conditions are softer in specific areas, Property, Financial Lines, Cyber, with some exceptions, as I said on the Auto side and the Casualty side, of course, on the (inaudible). We saw similar trends, similar trends in mid-market slightly more muted, although they have their moments, but slightly more muted just given that there was not as much peaks and valleys overall.

是的。我們會說——保羅，我之前想表達的觀點是，安德魯的問題實際上是圍繞著，你看，一般來說，特定領域的交易條件比較寬鬆，比如房地產、金融、網絡，但也有一些例外，就像我在汽車和意外險方面說的，當然，在（聽不清楚）。我們看到了類似的趨勢，中端市場的類似趨勢略顯平淡，儘管它們也有自己的亮點，但由於整體上沒有那麼多高峰和低谷，所以趨勢略顯平淡。

I would bring you back, though, to the macro points around the long-term trends. All the things that are happening, cyber supply chain, climate weather, social inflation, these are not the middle market, too. I mean, our middle market clients is we're finding NFP very sophisticated set of needs, and when you can bring real solutions to them, they matter and they matter even more in the current environment. So I think directionally, you probably have -- we would agree. But the nuance matters because it shows up one client at a time.

不過，我想讓大家回顧一下長期趨勢的宏觀要點。所有正在發生的事情，網路供應鏈、氣候天氣、社會通貨膨脹，這些也不是中間市場。我的意思是，我們發現 NFP 的中階市場客戶有著非常複雜的需求，當你能為他們帶來真正的解決方案時，這些解決方案就很重要，而且在當前環境下，它們甚至更重要。所以我認為從方向上來說，你可能已經同意了。但細微差別很重要，因為它一次只顯示給一位客戶。

And it's why we've been -- we have success because we can bring solutions in a very specific, tailored way on a client-by-client basis. But generally, I'd say you're directionally right.

這就是我們成功的原因，因為我們可以根據每個客戶的具體情況，提供非常具體、量身定制的解決方案。但總的來說，我認為你的方向是正確的。

Great. Thank you for the (inaudible) answers, and always appreciate the help.

偉大的。感謝您的（聽不清楚）回答，並始終感謝您的幫助。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Great. Thanks so much. I appreciate the outlook in terms of tougher comp for Wealth Solutions in the second quarter and I guess, the back half of the year. I was hoping you could add a little color in terms of the specific businesses and underlying factors that were so strong in the first quarter of this year. But what is it that actually drove the investments growth?

偉大的。非常感謝。我很欣賞財富解決方案在第二季以及下半年面臨更嚴峻的競爭情勢的前景。我希望您能對今年第一季表現強勁的具體業務和潛在因素進行一些說明。但究竟是什麼推動了投資的成長呢？

Well, listen, maybe if you come back, Meyer, we've loved our -- it's been fantastic what the teams have been able to do over really a multiyear period. Again, I would come back on the Wealth side, start with macro trends, then talk about the Aon team and what the drivers of success are. And remember, by the way, this business overall is kind of two-thirds Retirement, one-third Investments. The Investments business has a core investment piece, but it also has an Advisory piece embedded in it as well. So that's kind of the macro business. But think about the macro trends.

好吧，聽著，邁耶，也許你回來的時候，我們都很喜歡我們的——這些團隊在多年的時間裡所取得的成就真是太棒了。再次，我將回到財富方面，從宏觀趨勢開始，然後談論怡安團隊以及成功的驅動因素。順便說一下，請記住，這項業務總體上是三分之二的退休金，三分之一的投資。投資業務有一個核心投資部分，但它也包含一個諮詢部分。這就是宏觀業務。但想想宏觀趨勢。

It's retirement readiness. 20% of the world is ready for retirement. That is a massive -- it's a massive challenge for the world as this evolve, if we can address retirement readiness huge. Second, wealth transfer, if you think about sort of what's going on, also very, very substantial.

這是退休準備。世界上有 20% 的人準備退休。如果我們無法解決退休準備問題，那麼這對世界來說是一個巨大的挑戰。第二，財富轉移，如果你思考正在發生的事情，也會發現它非常非常重要。

And then the piece you can't lose is the regulatory challenges that seem to come up a year after year after year. And so from our standpoint, we've got an amazing team across each one of those pieces, now even stronger on the NFP front. And the team is exceptional. And the drivers of the success for us has been much like it was on the Commercial Risk side, new business and retention, new business and retention. It really is client leadership and new capabilities, new clients and then retaining them longer.

而你不能忽視的是，監管挑戰似乎年復一年地出現。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們在各個領域都擁有一支出色的團隊，現在在 NFP 方面更加強大。而且這個團隊非常出色。我們成功的驅動力與商業風險方面非常相似，即新業務和保留、新業務和保留。這確實是客戶領導力和新能力、新客戶，然後更長時間地留住他們。

The second big piece is pension risk transfer. So you've seen us do some things in that arena that really no one else has been able to do in the US and the European and the UK theater in particular.

第二大塊是退休金風險轉移。所以，您已經看到我們在該領域做了一些事情，這些事情實際上是美國、歐洲和英國戰場上其他人都無法做到的。

And then finally, on the core retirement side, which everyone comes back and says, this is the challenge on defined benefit and defined contribution, and it is in the fullness of time, but my gosh, in its current world with the regulatory challenges, it really creates the opportunity for us to help clients think about that overall strategy.

最後，關於核心退休方面，每個人都會回過頭來說，這是固定福利和固定繳款方面的挑戰，而且需要時間的積累，但是天哪，在當前充滿監管挑戰的世界中，它確實為我們創造了機會，幫助客戶思考整體戰略。

So those are the very specific things that are really driving success on the Wealth side. And Edmund's quite right, we talked about some of the pressures in Q2 as sort of be mindful of those. But the team has done a phenomenal job progressing here, and we're looking forward to continued success.

所以，這些都是真正推動財富成功的具體因素。艾德蒙說得對，我們討論了第二季的一些壓力，需要注意這些壓力。但團隊在這方面已經取得了非凡的進展，我們期待繼續取得成功。

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful. If I can switch gears, you talked about the individual, I guess, multiyear extension within Reinsurance. And Greg, you described that as a really good deal for the client, which is what you should be doing. Does that mean that we should expect other such deals, not necessarily with this client but others?

好的。謝謝。這非常有幫助。如果我可以換個話題，我想您談到了再保險中的個人多年延期。格雷格，您說這對客戶來說是一筆非常好的交易，這也是您應該做的。這是否意味著我們應該期待其他類似的交易，不一定是與這個客戶，而是與其他客戶？

Listen, we've come back, Meyer, is philosophically, this is (inaudible) just answer specifically. This is a very unique situation. Let me stress, very unique and very substantial in terms of both the size and the value creation that we brought forward. So for us, we're always looking for innovative ways to think about how to bring value to clients. And if you think about Aon's history, we will never be low price. We're not going to be low price. We're going to be high value.

聽著，我們回來了，邁耶，從哲學上講，這是（聽不清楚）具體的答案。這是一個非常獨特的情況。我要強調的是，無論從規模或價值創造來看，我們所做的都是非常獨特和非常實質的。因此，對我們來說，我們一直在尋找創新的方法來思考如何為客戶帶來價值。如果你回顧一下怡安的歷史，你會發現我們永遠不會低價。我們不會低價出售。我們將會變得有很高的價值。

We cost a dollar, and we can prove to a client, we give them back $2, and we can quantify that they actually understand it. They can touch it. They can feel it. They know it either affects volatility, which is value creation, our actual costs, et cetera.

我們花費一美元，然後我們可以向客戶證明，我們退還他們2美元，然後我們可以量化他們是否真正理解了它。他們可以觸摸它。他們能感覺到。他們知道它會影響波動性（即價值創造）、我們的實際成本等等。

Meyer, that's how we go. By the way, if a competitor comes in and says they're $0.50 but can only return $0.52, if a client believes that and understands it, they go with us. If they don't believe it, they don't. Our analytics make us stronger and stronger in that regard.

邁耶，我們就是這樣做的。順便說一句，如果競爭對手進來並說他們的價格是 0.50 美元，但只能返還 0.52 美元，如果客戶相信並理解這一點，他們就會選擇我們。如果他們不相信，他們就不會相信。我們的分析使我們在這方面變得越來越強大。

In this case, very unique. Let me just add, very unique and very substantial. We want some kind of the more annual periodic piece to a very long-term engagement that enables us to do some things on their behalf that is -- they're exceptional. And so it was really in that context, we did what we would call great value creation, and we got recognized for that value.

在這種情況下，非常獨特。我只想補充一點，非常獨特，非常實質。我們希望透過某種更具年度性的定期活動來進行長期合作，以便我們能夠代表他們做一些事情——他們是傑出的。正是在這樣的背景下，我們做了所謂的偉大價值創造，並因這種價值而得到了認可。

So I think this was, for us, great outcomes on both sides. And we'd love to do more of these in a way that really can add to this kind of value, but this is a very -- as I say, the last time, a very unique situation. The downside is, it had some pressure in timing, and you saw that in the first quarter. But so be it. We want to do it, try on the (inaudible) clients.

因此我認為這對我們雙方來說都是很好的結果。我們很樂意以真正能夠增加這種價值的方式做更多這樣的事，但正如我上次所說的，這是一個非常獨特的情況。缺點是，它在時間上有一些壓力，你在第一季就看到了這一點。但就這樣吧。我們想這樣做，在（聽不清楚）客戶身上試試看。

Greg, it had pressure in Reinsurance in the quarter. We have a diversified business across multiple solution lines, Commercial, Reinsurance, Health, and Wealth. And the reason that we're still able to deliver the mid-single-digit is because of that, because we're operating across solution lines, because we're operating in multiple countries, because we have the operating leverage in our business.

格雷格，本季再保險業務面臨壓力。我們的業務多元化，涵蓋商業、再保險、健康和財富等多個解決方案領域。我們之所以仍然能夠實現中等個位數的成長，是因為我們跨解決方案線運營，因為我們在多個國家運營，因為我們的業務具有運營槓桿。

And so when the opportunity comes to grow with the client in a significant way and still be able to deliver our results, of course, we're going to jump on that.

因此，當有機會與客戶一起實現顯著成長，同時仍能實現我們的成果時，我們當然會抓住這個機會。

Okay. I think that was very helpful. Thank you.

好的。我認為這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So a question for Greg. I know you affirmed your guidance, but obviously, there's been a lot of volatility in the macro and geopolitical environment. So just wondering where, if any, there are changes in your expectations for your various businesses versus early in 2025? I know there's a lot of optimism about capital markets activity picking up. That hasn't happened, and now inflation's is higher. But just if you could touch on your major businesses and where maybe you're more optimistic, where you're seeing some headwinds?

所以我想問格雷格一個問題。我知道您確認了您的指導，但顯然，宏觀和地緣政治環境存在很大波動。所以我想知道，與 2025 年初相比，您對各項業務的預期有哪些變化（如果有的話）？我知道人們對資本市場活動的回溫抱持著許多樂觀態度。但這種情況並沒有發生，而且現在通貨膨脹率更高了。但是，您能否談談您的主要業務以及您對哪些業務更為樂觀，哪些業務面臨阻力？

Yeah. I appreciate that, Jimmy, and I'll start, and Edmund can add some color as well. Listen, the trauma is real. You're seeing it every day. I would remind you step back -- remember, Jimmy, we've been talking for quite some time about increased volatility, and we talked about, we call it, four mega-trends: trade, technology, weather, and workforce.

是的。我很感激，吉米，我先開始，埃德蒙也可以添加一些顏色。聽著，創傷是真實存在的。你每天都會看到它。我想提醒你退一步——記住，吉米，我們已經討論了相當長一段時間的波動性增加問題，我們討論了我們稱之為四大趨勢：貿易、技術、天氣和勞動力。

And remember all those -- now it was before the tariffs, and this has been substantial. They're all there. They all continue to drive volatility and, in many respects, create risk for clients, which means demand if we can help them understand that volatility and redo something about it.

請記住所有這些——現在是關稅之前，而且這已經是相當大的了。他們都在那裡。它們都繼續推動波動，並在許多方面為客戶帶來風險，這意味著如果我們能夠幫助他們理解波動並重新採取措施，就會產生需求。

Clearly, today, trade is at the forefront, no doubt about that. Clients are sitting there essentially saying, look, we don't only have to understand what's going on. We got to do something about it. If COVID taught anything, in actions not a productive option. You've got to do something. You've got to have a plan.

顯然，今天，貿易處於首要地位，這一點毫無疑問。客戶坐在那裡基本上說，看，我們不僅要了解發生了什麼。我們必須對此採取措施。如果 COVID 教會了我們什麼，那就是行動不是有效的選擇。你必須做點什麼。你必須有一個計劃。

So we're engaging it really is across every one of our businesses really on the risk capital side, Commercial, and Reinsurance, on the human capital side, with our Talent business, Health, Retirement, and we're active with clients. And we're helping them trying to understand the complexity and then what they can do about it. So I described the supply chain diagnostic, our analyzers, Jimmy in terms of how to help them understand what's going on.

因此，我們實際上正在參與我們每項業務，包括風險資本方面、商業和再保險、人力資本方面、人才業務、健康和退休，我們積極與客戶合作。我們正在幫助他們理解其中的複雜性，並幫助他們採取相應的措施。因此，我向 Jimmy 描述了供應鏈診斷、我們的分析儀如何幫助他們了解正在發生的事情。

I mean we just did a just did a massive -- the biggest parameter -- I think the biggest parametric on a severe convective storm that's ever been done for a big steel company. And it really was in the face of this new set of risks that are on the horizon, and how they can deal with that. And so for us, we're tailoring solutions against us.

我的意思是，我們剛剛做了一個巨大的——最大的參數——我認為這是有史以​​來為一家大型鋼鐵公司所做的關於強對流風暴的最大參數。這確實是在面對即將出現的一系列新風險，以及他們如何應對這些風險。因此，對我們來說，我們正在製定針對我們自身的解決方案。

Now there are no doubt there are puts and takes here and there will be pressures on areas of discretionary spend. So we should recognize that that will come, and that will be real, but it's also offset in many respects by what I'm just describing, our ability to react to client demand. And so for us, we step back right now. And look, the world's changed a lot even in the last 30 days in terms of pressure. But we look at where the world is right now, and we will say, listen, we feel we have conviction about mid-single-digit or greater growth. We are not changing guidance based on what we've seen in the first quarter.

毫無疑問，這裡存在著利弊，可自由支配的開支領域將面臨壓力。因此，我們應該認識到，這種情況將會發生，而且是真實存在的，但它也會在許多方面被我剛才所描述的我們對客戶需求的反應能力所抵消。因此，對我們來說，我們現在就退後一步。看看吧，就壓力而言，在過去 30 天裡，世界已經發生了很大變化。但我們看看現在的世界情勢，我們會說，聽著，我們確信經濟將實現中等個位數甚至更高的成長。根據第一季的情況，我們不會改變指導方針。

And some of the underlying factors that we really see on the positive side, we talked about on the call, around what's happening with our 3x3 plan, all those are good in that context. That's where we are. And we said, Jimmy, that's across the board. That's Reinsurance. That's Commercial Risk. That's what we're doing in Health, and that's what we're doing Wealth.

我們在電話會議上討論了我們真正看到的一些積極的潛在因素，圍繞著我們的 3x3 計劃的進展情況，在這種背景下，所有這些都是好的。這就是我們現在的情況。我們說，吉米，這是全面的。這就是再保險。這就是商業風險。這就是我們在健康領域所做的事情，也是我們在財富領域所做的事情。

So for us, we see opportunities everywhere. We see the challenges. They're real. But against that said, we also see mid-single-digit or greater, and that's what we're focused on, and that's the mission to achieve, and that's our guidance as of today.

因此對我們來說，機會無所不在。我們看到了挑戰。它們是真實的。但與此相反，我們也看到了中等個位數或更高的成長，這就是我們關注的重點，也是我們要實現的使命，也是我們今天的指導。

I mean, I'm just going to give you some -- I agree with Greg's point about mid-single-digit or greater. When we think about confidence in the second half and go through our solution lines, specifically, it will continue to come through the new business and the retention. Construction, core P&C, the NFP pipeline, and synergies, those things are improving as we look in the second half of the year, and we'll have meaningful contribution.

我的意思是，我只是想給你一些——我同意格雷格關於中等個位數或更高的觀點。當我們考慮下半年的信心並透過我們的解決方案時，具體來說，它將繼續透過新業務和保留來實現。建築業、核心財產和意外傷害保險、非農業就業管道和協同效應，從我們預期的下半年來看，這些方面都在改善，我們將做出有意義的貢獻。

In Reinsurance, I mentioned earlier the July 1 renewals with more limit. Again, we have line of sight there, the international facultative. In the health solution line, we have the core benefits. Remember, we just said that was double digit in three out of our four regions and 9% in the other. So we continue to expect benefit and growth there, as well as now getting the benefit of the talent business as we recognize revenue and data and analytics.

在再保險方面，我之前提到 7 月 1 日的續保限額更高。再次，我們的視線在那裡，即國際兼性。在健康解決方案領域，我們擁有核心優勢。請記住，我們剛才說過，在我們四個地區中，有三個地區的成長率達到了兩位數，而另一個地區的成長率為 9%。因此，我們繼續期待在那裡獲得利益和成長，並且隨著我們實現收入、數據和分析，現在還能從人才業務中獲益。

And on the Wealth side, I think we have great line of sight for Q2 on the asset component that Greg was talking about. But that regulatory component, pension risk transfer and the strong retention, those are the things that are driving growth in the second half of the year. And of course, we'll see some benefit from the investment hires.

在財富方面，我認為我們對格雷格談到的第二季資產部分有著很好的預期。但監管因素、退休金風險轉移和強勁的留存率才是推動下半年成長的因素。當然，我們會看到投資招聘帶來的一些好處。

When I think about that and the absence of the headwinds that we had in Q1, it's really important to think about 13 points of EPS headwind, from the increase in interest and the increase in shares from the NFP acquisition. Those things won't be there as we go around in the year. And so that together is what gives us confidence in the second half of the year and while we're reaffirming the guidance here.

當我考慮到這一點以及我們在第一季遇到的不利因素消失時，真正重要的是考慮每股收益 13 點的不利因素，這源於利息的增加和 NFP 收購帶來的股份增加。隨著時間的流逝，這些東西將不再存在。因此，這些因素讓我們對下半年充滿信心，同時我們也重申了目前的指導方針。

Got it. And then just on the performance of the NFP business, if you could just comment on how it's tracked versus what you would have expected because if we look at the contribution to revenues from acquisitions and dispositions, both in RIS and in Health, it was lower this quarter than it's been the last few quarters, and NFP is obviously a big number there. But any comments on the performance of the acquired business?

知道了。然後，僅就 NFP 業務的表現而言，您是否可以評論一下它與您的預期相比的跟踪情況，因為如果我們看一下 RIS 和健康領域的收購和處置對收入的貢獻，本季度的貢獻低於過去幾個季度，而 NFP 顯然是一個很大的數字。但對於收購業務的表現有何評價？

Jimmy, I'll just start macro levels. As we said before, listen, we had high expectations, and they've been exceeded in terms of what we're trying to do. Underlying connectivity, the old thesis around independent and connected exactly as we'd hoped, the retention on the producer side phenomenal. Again, ultimately, this is all about how our clients facing individuals see more opportunity as we brought the firms together. And that's what we continue to work on. We have work to do, no doubt about it. But we've made great progress.

吉米，我將從宏觀層面開始。正如我們之前所說，聽著，我們有很高的期望，而且就我們所嘗試做的事情而言，我們的期望已經超越了我們的期望。底層連接，圍繞獨立和連接的舊論點正如我們所希望的那樣，生產方的保留率非常高。再次強調，最終這一切都是關於當我們將公司合併在一起時，我們的客戶如何為個人看到更多機會。這就是我們繼續努力的方向。毫無疑問，我們有工作要做。但我們已經取得了巨大進步。

And at an underlying level, as Edmund has highlighted throughout the call, we just reiterated, as all this comes together, we're going to deliver. It's going to -- we're together, more accretive from a revenue standpoint, accretive from an operating standpoint, and certainly accretive from a free cash flow standpoint. So for us, all those things have come together and that we feel fantastic about kind of the work in the first year and this first anniversary and looking forward to continuing with the strategy in the middle market.

從根本上講，正如埃德蒙在整個通話過程中所強調的那樣，我們只是重申，隨著所有這一切的實現，我們將會實現目標。我們會共同努力，從收入角度、營運角度、自由現金流角度實現更大增值。所以對我們來說，所有這些事情都已經結合在一起，我們對第一年和第一個週年的工作感到非常高興，並期待繼續在中端市場實施這項策略。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

蒙塔澤里洞，德意志銀行。

Thank you. First question is on the Investor Day, the first one in 20 years. I'm just wondering, is there something specific that you think -- the street is under-appreciating, maybe in terms of like the power of the Aon United platform, your ABS capabilities, or the 3x3 plan? Or is it a new approach to communication and maybe we should expect more regular Investor Days going forward?

謝謝。第一個問題是關於投資者日的，這是 20 年來的第一個投資者日。我只是想知道，您是否認為某些特定的東西被低估了，也許是就 Aon United 平台的強大功能、您的 ABS 功能或 3x3 計劃而言？或者這是一種新的溝通方式，也許我們應該期待未來有更多定期的投資者日？

I don't know, Cave, on more Investor Days. One every 20 years might be the right answer. We'll see. But listen, we're really excited about this. And I really hope those listening to have interest can come.

我不知道，凱夫，還有更多的投資者日。每20年一次可能是正確的答案。我們將拭目以待。但是聽著，我們對此真的很興奮。我真誠地希望那些有興趣的聽眾能夠來。

This, for us, is we think there's something here around next-generation client experience. We spent 15 years working on a platform on a connected global firm. We made no apologies. When we connect our global firm, we call it Aon United, but we're not kidding. We're talking about single brand, single opco, single P&L, done some things that have really been difficult strides to get us coordinated.

對我們來說，我們認為這與下一代客戶體驗有關。我們花了 15 年時間致力於一家互聯全球公司的平台建置。我們沒有道歉。當我們將我們的全球公司聯繫起來時，我們稱之為怡安聯合，但我們並不是在開玩笑。我們正在談論單一品牌、單一營運公司、單一損益表，做了一些非常困難的事情來讓我們協調一致。

When we coordinate well on behalf of clients, we win more. We do more with them. We keep them longer. What's happened though in the 3x3 plan is we saw an opportunity to massively accelerate that. And the acceleration gets borne out in something we call a next-generation client experience, full stop. And risk capital and human capital are an organization to sort of think about innovation at a client level, and we've seen many examples of that. But that wasn't enough.

當我們代表客戶進行良好的協調時，我們會贏得更多。我們與他們一起做更多的事情。我們保存它們更長時間。然而，在 3x3 計畫中，我們看到了大幅加速這一進程的機會。這種加速在我們所謂的下一代客戶體驗中得到了證實。創投和人力資本是一個從客戶層面思考創新的組織，我們已經看到很多這樣的例子。但這還不夠。

We needed a way to deliver it at a client level that, Aon client leadership, and that wasn't enough. We needed Aon Business Services. We needed the power of a way to look across data, embed the work we've done on AI and now generative AI, which we have done. And we think we've come to a place, Cave, in which this next-generation client experience is real and powerful.

我們需要一種在客戶層面實現這一目標的方法，即怡安客戶領導層，但這還不夠。我們需要怡安商業服務。我們需要一種強大的方法來查看數據，嵌入我們在人工智慧和現在的生成人工智慧方面所做的工作，我們已經做到了。我們認為我們已經來到了 Cave，在這裡，下一代客戶體驗是真實而強大的。

And we didn't want to do it at the beginning of the 3x3, so we had a year go by. So we're essentially going to update you on that next-generation client experience and where we are. The specific tangible places where we think it's changing the way clients actually do what they do and help makes them better. And so for us, we don't -- probably tell in my voice, we're pretty excited about this step change. It builds on the Aon United thesis around a connected global firm but a massive acceleration.

我們不想在 3x3 開始時就這樣做，所以我們耽擱了一年。因此，我們主要將向您介紹下一代客戶體驗以及我們所處的位置。我們認為，這些具體有形的地方正在改變客戶實際做事的方式，並幫助他們變得更好。因此對我們來說，我們可能從我的聲音中可以看出，我們對這一重大變化感到非常興奮。它以怡安聯合 (Aon United) 的全球互聯公司理念為基礎，但速度大幅提升。

That's why we get the $1 billion. It's why we put $1 billion at work to reinforce Aon Business Services to innovate around risk capital and human capital and deliver it through Aon client leadership. So you're going to see that mechanics. We're going to provide as much detail as we can, probably have a few clients that are talking about how it's different and how it's potentially useful for them as they think about running their driving their businesses. And we hope you enjoy it.

這就是我們獲得 10 億美元的原因。這就是為什麼我們投入 10 億美元來加強怡安商業服務，圍繞創投和人力資本進行創新，並透過怡安客戶領導力來實現這一點。所以你會看到那個機制。我們將提供盡可能多的細節，可能有幾個客戶正在談論它的不同之處以及它在他們考慮經營業務時對他們有何潛在用處。我們希望您喜歡它。

And then we'll see what happens. Maybe you can give us your thoughts on sort of how frequently we might do that. But in the meantime, we're excited about June 9 and hope you can join us.

然後我們看看會發生什麼。也許您可以告訴我們您的想法，關於我們可能多久做一次這樣的事。但同時，我們對 6 月 9 日感到很興奮，希望您能加入我們。

Yeah, looking forward to it. My follow-up question should be an easy one. Edmund, the second-quarter EPS guidance that you gave us, 15% to 18% EPS growth, is the baseline the $2.93 reported? Or is there any adjustments we need to make to the starting point?

是的，很期待。我的後續問題應該很簡單。艾德蒙，您給我們的第二季每股盈餘預測是每股盈餘成長 15% 至 18%，基準是報告的 2.93 美元嗎？或者我們需要對起點做出什麼調整？

That is the baseline. That's exactly right. And look, we are an annual company. We're going to continue to focus on full-year guidance because -- and we think the long-term drivers of growth are all stable. I gave that Q2 guidance because we do have the unique situation I recognize and appreciate from a modeling standpoint, given the timing of the NFP close. And so you do have the right baseline, and hopefully, the Q2 is helpful.

這是底線。完全正確。你看，我們是一家年費公司。我們將繼續關注全年指引，因為我們認為長期成長動力都是穩定的。我之所以給出第二季的指引，是因為考慮到非農就業數據公佈的結束時間，從建模的角度來看，我們確實面臨著我所認識和欣賞的獨特情況。所以你確實有正確的基線，希望 Q2 能有所幫助。

Appreciate this. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Thank you. I'll now turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉回給格雷格·凱斯 (Greg Case) 作結束語。

I just wanted to say we appreciate everyone joining us and look forward to June 9 and our next discussion. Thanks so much.

我只想說，我們感謝大家的加入，並期待 6 月 9 日的下一次討論。非常感謝。

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。