怡安集團 (AON) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon plc's Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I'd also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time.

早上好，感謝您的關注。歡迎參加怡安集團 2024 年第四季電話會議。[操作員指示] 我還想提醒各方，本次通話正在被錄音。如果有人有異議的話，你現在可以斷開你的線路。

It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our fourth-quarter 2024 results as well as having been posted on our website.

值得注意的是，今天電話會議中的某些評論可能構成《1995 年私人證券改革法》定義的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明受某些風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與歷史結果或預期結果有重大差異。有關可能導致此類差異的風險因素的資訊已在涵蓋我們 2024 年第四季度業績的新聞稿中描述，並已在我們的網站上發布。

Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon PLC.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給怡安集團執行長 Greg Case。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth-quarter and full year conference call. I'm joined by Edmund Reese, our CFO; and Eric Andersen, our President. As in previous quarters, we posted a detailed financial presentation on our website, which Edmund will reference in his remarks.

大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第四季和全年電話會議。和我一起的還有我們的財務長 Edmund Reese；以及我們的總裁 Eric Andersen。與前幾季一樣，我們在網站上發布了詳細的財務報告，埃德蒙將在他的演講中引用該報告。

We want to begin by sending our deepest sympathy to our colleagues, clients and all those impacted by recent disasters and in particular, the devastating wildfires in Southern California. The destruction and loss of life are tragic events. And all of us at Aon are committed to supporting our clients, colleagues and partners during the response and recovery.

首先，我們要向我們的同事、客戶以及所有受到最近災難、特別是南加州毀滅性山火影響的人們表示最深切的同情。破壞和生命損失都是悲劇。怡安全體員工致力於在回應和復原期間為我們的客戶、同事和合作夥伴提供支援。

Now turning to Aon. We're excited to be here this morning to discuss our strong performance in 2024. We had great execution in year one of our 3 by 3 plan with all credit to our colleagues around the globe, which I will cover in more detail at the close of my comments. That execution is translating into winning more clients, expanding our relationships and keeping clients longer through improved retention. And it shows in our financial results.

現在轉向怡安。我們很高興今天早上在這裡討論我們在 2024 年的強勁表現。我們在 3x3 計劃的第一年執行得非常出色，這要歸功於我們全球各地的同事，我將在評論結束時更詳細地介紹這一點。這項執行意味著贏得更多客戶，擴大我們的關係，並透過提高保留率來更長時間地留住客戶。這在我們的財務結果中有所體現。

For the full-year 2024, we grew organic revenue 6%, total revenue 17%. We delivered strong margins and grew our operating income by 17%, driving 10% adjusted earnings per share growth and continued strong free cash flow. These results are a strong start to our 3 by 3 plan.

2024 年全年，我們的有機收入成長 6%，總收入成長 17%。我們實現了強勁的利潤率，並使營業收入成長了 17%，推動調整後每股收益成長 10%，並繼續保持強勁的自由現金流。這些結果為我們的 3x3 計劃開了個好頭。

And as we go into 2025, year two, we remain well positioned to continue to deliver mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, continued margin expansion in line with our historic performance, strong adjusted EPS growth, double-digit free cash flow growth and disciplined capital allocation.

隨著我們進入 2025 年（第二年），我們仍然處於有利地位，可以繼續實現中等個位數或更高的有機收入增長、與歷史業績保持一致的利潤率持續擴大、強勁的調整後每股收益增長、兩位數的自由現金流增長和嚴格的資本配置。

As we move forward, it's important to understand the environment in which our clients are operating and the external factors shaping client demand. Every day, our clients tells that increasing volatility and complexity make decisions regarding risk and people issues more difficult.

在我們前進的過程中，了解客戶的營運環境和影響客戶需求的外部因素非常重要。我們的客戶每天都告訴我們，日益增加的波動性和複雜性使得有關風險和人員問題的決策更加困難。

The challenges businesses face reflect a series of profound transitions across the megatrends of trade, technology, weather and workforce, which we saw reinforced by events throughout 2024, and which are firmly in place as we move into 2025. These four megatrends are causing significant challenges across every sector and every type of business.

企業面臨的挑戰反映了貿易、技術、天氣和勞動力等大趨勢的一系列深刻轉變，我們看到這些轉變在 2024 年發生的事件中得到了強化，並且在我們進入 2025 年時仍將牢固確立。這四大趨勢為各行業和各種類型的企業帶來了重大挑戰。

At the same time, leaders worried that their organizations aren't moving quickly enough to address these risks. Our 3by 3 plan is anchored in meeting these intensifying client requirements, better serving our clients with unique content, servicing capability and expertise needed to respond to these challenges.

同時，領導者擔心他們的組織沒有迅速採取行動來應對這些風險。我們的 3by 3 計畫致力於滿足這些日益增強的客戶需求，透過獨特的內容、服務能力和專業知識來更好地服務我們的客戶，以應對這些挑戰。

In this environment, for Aon, 2024 was a year of tremendous progress across all three pillars of our 3 by 3 plan: Risk Capital and Human Capital, Aon client leadership and Aon Business Services, three commitments we're delivering over a three-year period.

在這種環境下，對怡安而言，2024 年是我們 3x3 計畫的所有三大支柱取得巨大進步的一年：風險資本和人力資本、怡安客戶領導力和怡安商業服務，這是我們在三年內兌現的三項承諾。

First, we committed to levering our distinctive Risk Capital and Human Capital structure to unlock new solutions that address the evolving client demand discussed earlier. In 2024, we created and delivered innovative solutions that integrate reinsurance and commercial risk data and analytics. Solutions using this connected capability are enabling clients to access capital more efficiently and make better decisions.

首先，我們致力於利用我們獨特的風險資本和人力資本結構來解鎖新的解決方案，以滿足前面討論過的不斷變化的客戶需求。2024 年，我們創建並交付了整合再保險和商業風險數據與分析的創新解決方案。使用這種連接功能的解決方案使客戶能夠更有效地獲取資金並做出更好的決策。

Our work in the fourth quarter to help source $715 million of alternative reinsurance capacity for a major underwriter and the record 30% increase in Aon client treated capacity are just two examples of the power of Risk Capital. Similarly, in Human Capital, a global company with over 100,000 employees in more than 100 countries ordered us the mandate for their global benefits program. Our global team brought together regional data and insights from analytic tools to deliver a comprehensive, globally consistent and compliant benefits offering.

我們在第四季度幫助一家主要承銷商獲得了 7.15 億美元的替代再保險能力，怡安客戶處理能力創紀錄地增長了 30%，這只是風險資本力量的兩個例子。同樣地，在人力資本方面，一家在 100 多個國家擁有 10 萬多名員工的跨國公司要求我們執行其全球福利計畫。我們的全球團隊匯集了區域數據和分析工具的見解，以提供全面、全球一致且合規的福利。

What was originally just a small Aon relationship in one jurisdiction is now an international relationship across every region they operate to support their colleagues in enterprise strategy. And this is just one example that demonstrates unique value of our globally connected firm and differentiated data-driven advice and solutions.

怡安最初只是在一個司法管轄區內建立的小型合作關係，如今已發展成為涵蓋其經營業務的每個地區的國際關係，以支持其同事制定企業策略。這只是一個例子，體現了我們全球互聯公司的獨特價值以及差異化的數據驅動建議和解決方案。

For Risk Capital, we also want to note and officially welcome John Neal to Aon. We announced earlier this month that John will join us from Lloyd's as our Global CEO of Reinsurance and Global Chairman of Climate Solutions upon the completion of his commitments to Lloyd's. Not only will John's arrival bring an iconic industry leader to help focus on delivering our integrated Risk Capital capabilities to clients, but his addition also represents another strong testament to the power of our Risk Capital and Human Capital strategy.

對於創投，我們也想指出並正式歡迎約翰尼加入怡安。我們本月稍早宣布，約翰將在完成對勞合社的承諾後，從勞合社轉而加入我們，擔任我們的再保險全球執行長和氣候解決方案全球主席。約翰的到來不僅將帶來一位標誌性的行業領袖來幫助我們專注於向客戶提供我們的綜合風險資本能力，而且他的加入也是對我們風險資本和人力資本戰略力量的又一有力證明。

Our second commitment is to embed the Aon client leadership model across our enterprise client, large and middle market segments to strengthen and expand client relationships. In 2024, we capitalized on our globally connected approach covering nearly 1,000 of our most critically important global clients within our enterprise client group. These clients grew new business 5 points above the Aon average in 2024 as we increase penetration across solution lines and geographies.

我們的第二個承諾是將怡安客戶領導模式融入我們的企業客戶、大中型市場，以加強和擴大客戶關係。2024 年，我們利用全球互聯的方式涵蓋了企業客戶群中近 1,000 個最重要的全球客戶。隨著我們提高解決方案系列和地區的滲透率，這些客戶的新業務在 2024 年成長了 5 個百分點，高於怡安的平均值。

Third, we committed to and are accelerating Aon business services to establish a new standard for service delivery and innovation at scale, and we made progress and great strides in 2024, giving clients real-time insights to help them make better decisions. From advanced analytics to customized dashboards, the tools that we launched this year are redefining client experiences and outcomes.

第三，我們致力於並正在加速怡安商業服務，以建立大規模服務交付和創新的新標準，我們在2024年取得了進步和長足進步，為客戶提供即時洞察，幫助他們做出更好的決策。從進階分析到客製化儀表板，我們今年推出的工具正在重新定義客戶體驗和結果。

In May, we debuted a new suite of risk analyzer tools, enabling our North American clients to receive exposure data, quantify loss potential and make better decisions based on total cost of risk. And we've seen great early traction with our analyzers, which continue to open doors, broad discussions with our clients and increase win rates.

五月份，我們推出了一套新的風險分析工具，使我們的北美客戶能夠接收風險敞口數據、量化損失潛力並根據總風險成本做出更好的決策。而且，我們的分析儀在早期就取得了巨大的進展，它為我們打開了大門，與客戶進行了廣泛的討論，並提高了成功率。

Let me highlight just a few of many examples. Early in 2024, we released our property risk analyzer. Through exposure profiles and data models, the tool stimulates the impact of insurance policy options to determine which risk should be retained versus transferred.

讓我僅舉出其中幾個例子。2024 年初，我們發布了財產風險分析器。透過風險暴露概況和資料模型，該工具可以模擬保險單選項的影響，以確定哪些風險應該保留，哪些風險應該轉移。

In the fourth quarter, we launched the cyber risk analyzer, enabling risk managers and brokers to better evaluate cyber risk and maximize insurance value. We also launched our health risk analyzer, a solution that leverages predictive modeling, risk optimization and ongoing monitoring to help clients identify and manage costs and plan for a predictable risk accordingly.

第四季度，我們推出了網路風險分析器，使風險管理人員和經紀人能夠更好地評估網路風險並最大化保險價值。我們還推出了健康風險分析器，該解決方案利用預測模型、風險最佳化和持續監控來幫助客戶識別和管理成本並相應地規劃可預測的風險。

At the same time, ABS retired nearly 300 applications and continues to drive greater efficiencies, which are foundational to our sustained margin expansion, which Edmund will describe. The result of meeting these milestones in 2024 is the delivery of highly distinctive capabilities and expertise that has created sustainable momentum for Aon.

同時，ABS 淘汰了近 300 個應用程式並繼續提高效率，這是我們持續利潤擴大的基礎，Edmund 將會對此進行描述。2024 年實現這些里程碑的結果是提供極具特色的能力和專業知識，為怡安創造了永續發展的動力。

We also want to highlight the progress we're making with NFP, eight months in, the business is performing very well, just as expected. Integration is right on track producer retention is strong, and the acquisition is driving top line growth as we build on NFP's strong client relationships by bringing additional content capabilities and tools to the team. Clients have responded well to the potential for NFP under the Aon umbrella, giving us even more confidence in our ability to achieve our sales and cost synergy goals in 2025 and 2026.

我們也想強調 NFP 所取得的進展，八個月以來，業務表現非常好，正如預期的那樣。整合工作進展順利，生產商保留率很高，而且此次收購正在推動營收成長，我們透過為團隊帶來額外的內容能力和工具，鞏固了 NFP 的強大客戶關係。客戶對於怡安旗下的 NFP 潛力反應良好，這讓我們對在 2025 年和 2026 年實現銷售和成本協同目標的能力更有信心。

And against this operating backdrop, Aon closed the year with a strong fourth quarter that drove another year of financial performance aligned with our objectives. As we begin year two of the 3 by 3 plan, we entered 2025 with momentum and have a strong foundation to build upon. The progress achieved in 2024 demonstrated the potential of our strategy, and now we will advance each component to drive further success.

在這樣的經營背景下，怡安以強勁的第四季度結束了這一財年，並推動了一年符合我們目標的財務表現。隨著我們開始 3x3 計劃的第二年，我們以強勁的勢頭邁入了 2025 年，並​​擁有堅實的基礎。2024 年的進展證明了我們策略的潛力，現在我們將推進每個組成部分，以推動進一步的成功。

Looking ahead, as we onboard recent hires, we're continuing to invest to support top line growth, particularly client-facing talent in prioritized growth areas and an innovative new technology-driven solutions enabled through Aon business services.

展望未來，隨著我們新員工的加入，我們將繼續投資以支持營收成長，特別是在優先成長領域面向客戶的人才以及透過怡安商業服務支援的創新新技術驅動解決方案。

In addition, the efficiencies we gain through Aon business services continue to support margin expansion. As a result, we expect to deliver another year of mid-single-digit or greater organic growth, continued margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth and double-digit free cash flow growth for 2025.

此外，我們透過怡安商業服務獲得的效率繼續支持利潤率的擴大。因此，我們預計 2025 年公司將再次實現中等個位數或更高的有機成長、利潤率持續擴大、調整後每股收益強勁成長、自由現金流實現兩位數成長。

To summarize and before I hand the call to Edmund for a more detailed review of our financials and outlook, we want to reinforce how excited our leadership team is for the opportunity ahead. We're executing against our strategy through the 3 by 3 plan.

總而言之，在我將電話交給埃德蒙來更詳細地審查我們的財務狀況和前景之前，我們想強調一下我們的領導團隊對未來機會的興奮之情。我們正在透過「3x3」計劃執行我們的策略。

Our solutions are helping clients as they face increasing volatility and complexity in their businesses. We're delivering results, including mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, margin expansion and free cash flow growth in line with our long-term financial model in 2024. NFP is right on track, and finally, the significant progress we made in 2024 positions Aon for another strong year in 2025 to deliver on our client, colleague and financial objectives.

我們的解決方案正在幫助客戶應對其業務中日益增加的波動性和複雜性。我們所取得的成果包括中等個位數的有機收入成長、利潤率擴大和自由現金流成長，符合我們 2024 年的長期財務模型。NFP 正按計劃進行，最後，我們在 2024 年取得的重大進展為怡安在 2025 年再創輝煌奠定了基礎，以實現我們的客戶、同事和財務目標。

Of course, none of this would be possible without Aon's global team. And on behalf of Edmund, Eric and me, I will conclude my comments by first, reinforcing our foundational commitment to our team to ensure that Aon fosters a culture and work environment strengthened by the power of inclusion, built to attract, develop and retain the best talent in the world from all backgrounds.

當然，如果沒有怡安的全球團隊，這一切都不可能實現。最後，我謹代表艾德蒙、艾里克和我自己，首先重申我們對團隊的基本承諾，以確保怡安培育一種以包容力量為支撐的文化和工作環境，以吸引、培養和留住來自各行各業的全球最優秀人才。

And second, just shout out a huge thank you to our 60,000 colleagues around the world for serving our clients with distinction and for making 2024 a tremendous year.

其次，我們要向我們遍布全球的 60,000 名同事致以誠摯的謝意，感謝他們為我們的客戶提供出色的服務，使 2024 年成為輝煌的一年。

Let me now turn to Edmund to walk through the financials and provide additional insight around our expectations for 2025. Edmund?

現在，我請 Edmund 介紹一下財務狀況，並針對我們對 2025 年的預期提供更多見解。埃德蒙？

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here discussing the results from yet another strong quarter that caps strong full year 2024 performance and positions us to achieve our 2024 to 2026 3 by 3 plan financial objectives.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我很高興在這裡討論又一個強勁季度的業績，這為 2024 年全年的強勁表現畫上了句號，並使我們能夠實現 2024 年至 2026 年的 3×3 計劃財務目標。

Before jumping into these results and providing 2025 guidance, I want to take a moment to highlight some critical milestones achieved in 2024 that demonstrate the strong progress that we've made toward our commitments. First, our full year performance is right in line with our objectives and guidance from mid-single digit or greater organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin and free cash flow.

在介紹這些結果並提供 2025 年指導之前，我想花點時間強調 2024 年實現的一些關鍵里程碑，這些里程碑證明了我們在履行承諾方面取得了長足進展。首先，我們的全年業績與我們的目標和指導一致，有機收入成長、調整後營業利潤率和自由現金流均達到中等個位數或更高。

In particular, organic revenue growth reached 6% for the year, giving us confidence in our 3 by 3 plan and our investments in hiring client-facing talent, developing client-facing ABS capabilities and expanding our enterprise client group will support mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth.

特別是，今年的有機收入成長達到了 6%，這使我們對 3 x 3 計畫充滿信心，我們在聘用面向客戶的人才、開發面向客戶的 ABS 能力和擴大企業客戶群方面的投資將支持中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長。

Second, we completed the acquisition of NFP, which expanded our presence in the $31 billion and fast-growing middle market. In 2024, we saw strong producer retention better than 2023, accretive top line financial results and $36 million in middle-market acquired EBITDA with a robust Q1 '25 pipeline, all in line with our expectations.

其次，我們完成了對NFP的收購，擴大了我們在價值310億美元且快速成長的中階市場的份額。2024 年，我們看到生產商保留率強勁，優於 2023 年，營收財務業績成長，中階市場收購 EBITDA 為 3,600 萬美元，2025 年第一季產品線強勁，全部符合我們的預期。

Third, we paid down $2.1 billion in debt and returned $1.6 billion in capital to shareholders due to dividend and share repurchases, lowering our leverage in line with our objectives and continuing our balanced capital allocation discipline.

第三，我們償還了 21 億美元的債務，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 16 億美元的資本，根據我們的目標降低了槓桿率，並繼續執行平衡的資本配置原則。

We are executing our plan. And these milestones emphasize that with year one of our 3 by 3 plan complete, we have momentum. And continued execution gives us a high level of confidence in delivering on our 3 by 3 financial objectives, including a double-digit three-year CAGR in free cash flow from 2023 to 2026.

我們正在執行我們的計劃。這些里程碑強調，隨著我們 3x3 計畫第一年的完成，我們擁有了發展動力。持續的執行使我們對實現 3x3 財務目標充滿信心，包括 2023 年至 2026 年自由現金流實現三年兩位數的複合年增長率。

You can see from the financial summary on slide 6, that full year total revenue increased 17% to $16 billion, and we delivered 6% organic revenue growth. Adjusted operating income increased 17%, and adjusted operating margin was 31.5%, up 90 basis points relative to a '23 baseline that includes NFP.

您可以從幻燈片 6 上的財務摘要中看到，全年總收入增長 17%，達到 160 億美元，並且實現了 6% 的有機收入增長。調整後營業收入成長 17%，調整後營業利潤率為 31.5%，相對於包含 NFP 的 23 年基準上漲 90 個基點。

Adjusted EPS was up 10% to $15.60. And finally, we generated $2.8 billion of free cash flow, reflecting strong adjusted operating income growth and continued working capital improvements.

調整後每股收益上漲 10% 至 15.60 美元。最後，我們產生了 28 億美元的自由現金流，反映了強勁的調整後營業收入成長和持續的營運資本改善。

Turning to the fourth quarter. Organic revenue growth was also 6%, marking a third consecutive quarter of growth at 6% or greater. Adjusted operating margin was 33.3%, expanding 140 basis points relative to a '23 baseline that includes NFP, and adjusted EPS was up 14% to $4.42.

展望第四季。有機收入成長率也達到了 6%，這是連續第三個季度實現 6% 或更高的成長率。調整後的營業利潤率為 33.3%，相對於包含 NFP 的 23 年基準擴大了 140 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘上漲 14% 至 4.42 美元。

Let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth on slide 8. In Q4, organic revenue growth of 6% was right on track and in line with our mid-single digit or greater guidance range.

讓我們詳細了解這些結果，從第 8 張投影片上的有機收入成長開始。第四季度，有機收入成長率達到 6%，符合我們的中等個位數或更高的指導範圍。

In commercial risk, organic revenue growth was 6% in Q4 and was broad-based, reflecting strength in our North American core P&C business, continued strong contribution from our international businesses and an uptick in construction as we're beginning to see the impact from specialty hires. We also benefited from double-digit growth in M&A services as increased transaction activity continued to be a modest tailwind.

在商業風險方面，第四季度的有機收入成長率為 6%，且成長範圍廣泛，反映了我們北美核心財產和意外保險業務的強勁成長、國際業務的持續強勁貢獻以及建築業務的上升，因為我們開始看到專業招聘帶來的影響。由於交易活動的增加持續帶來溫和的推動作用，我們也受惠於併購服務的兩位數成長。

Reinsurance organic revenue reached 6% in Q4 '24, growing over an elevated Q4 '23 on the back of continued strength in our strategy and technology group, strong treaty placements with existing clients and increased insurance-linked securities. Specifically, interest in catastrophe bonds continue to grow as investors seek unique asset classes with uncorrelated returns, and Aon is the leading industry provider in cat bond placements.

再保險有機收入在 24 年第四季達到 6%，較 23 年第四季有所成長，這得益於我們策略和技術團隊的持續強勁發展、與現有客戶的強勁合約安排以及保險連結證券的增加。具體而言，隨著投資者尋求具有不相關回報的獨特資產類別，對巨災債券的興趣持續增長，而怡安是巨災債券配售領域的領先行業提供者。

Health Solutions grew 5% in Q4 '24, also against a high Q4 '23 comparable. Growth in core health and benefits as well as NFP executive benefits and pharmacy benefits was partially offset by lower revenue in talent solutions.

健康解決方案在 24 年第四季成長了 5%，與 23 年第四季相比也有所成長。核心健康和福利以及非營利組織高階主管福利和藥房福利的成長被人才解決方案收入的下降部分抵消。

Finally, wealth solutions delivered 8% organic revenue growth in Q4, driven by continued strong demand for pension risk transfer consulting, regulatory work from policy changes across the UK and EMEA and new clients' market performance in NFP.

最後，財富解決方案在第四季度實現了 8% 的有機收入成長，這得益於對退休金風險轉移諮詢的持續強勁需求、英國及歐洲、中東和非洲地區政策變化帶來的監管工作以及新客戶在非農業就業市場的市場表現。

Our Q4 organic revenue growth was powered by new business, which contributed 12 points from both existing and new clients as well as a modest contribution from M&A services as I mentioned earlier. And with continued high retention in the mid-90s, supported by the increasing deployment of our ABS capabilities, as Greg mentioned, net new business drove the 6 points of organic revenue growth. The net market impact from growth and exposures in rates was flat.

我們第四季的有機收入成長主要得益於新業務，現有客戶和新客戶貢獻了 12 個百分點，而正如我之前提到的，併購服務也貢獻了適度的收入。而且正如 Greg 所提到的那樣，由於 90 年代中期持續的高保留率，以及我們 ABS 能力不斷增加的部署，淨新業務推動了 6 個百分點的有機收入成長。成長和利率風險敞口對市場產生的淨影響持平。

Reinsurance did have a modestly negative rate impact in the fourth quarter, consistent with early views of (inaudible) renewals as capital capacity, up 7% for the year, outstripped demand. We saw the lower rates in reinsurance offset with modest rate benefit across commercial, health and wealth.

再保險在第四季度確實對利率產生了輕微的負面影響，這與早期對（聽不清楚）續保的看法一致，因為資本容量（今年增長了 7%）超過了需求。我們發現再保險費率降低，但商業、健康和財富保險費率卻有所增加。

For the full year, each of the solution lines across Risk Capital and Human Capital were well within or above our mid-single-digit or greater growth objective with commercial risk at 5% and all other solution lines growing at or above 6%. And I'll add that if measured separately, NFP and Aon are both generating mid-single-digit organic revenue growth.

全年來看，風險資本和人力資本的每條解決方案線都遠超我們的中等個位數或更高的成長目標，其中商業風險為 5%，所有其他解決方案線的成長率均達到或超過 6%。我還要補充一點，如果單獨衡量，NFP 和 Aon 都實現了中等個位數的有機收入成長。

Turning now on to margins on slide 10. Adjusted operating margin for Q4 was 33.3%, expanding 140 basis points from our combined baseline with NFP. On a full year basis, adjusted operating margin was 31.5%, and we delivered 90 basis points of margin expansion relative to our combined baseline with NFP.

現在轉到第 10 張投影片的頁邊距。第四季調整後的營業利潤率為 33.3%，較我們結合 NFP 的綜合基線擴大了 140 個基點。從全年來看，調整後的營業利益率為 31.5%，相對於 NFP 的綜合基線，我們的利潤率擴大了 90 個基點。

We continue to drive adjusted operating margin expansion due to scale in our business, particularly through Aon business services, our continued portfolio management and the shift in mix to higher-margin businesses as well as ongoing expense discipline and importantly, the benefit from our restructuring initiatives to accelerate our 3 by 3 plan.

由於業務規模不斷擴大，特別是透過怡安商業服務、持續的投資組合管理、向利潤率更高的業務組合的轉變和持續的費用紀律，以及更重要的是，得益於我們的重組舉措以加速我們的 3x3 計劃，我們繼續推動調整後營業利潤率的擴大。

We ended the year $10 million ahead of our restructuring plan objective. And savings in the fourth quarter were $40 million, resulting in a $110 million of savings for full year '24. Restructuring savings contributed approximately 100 basis points in Q4 and approximately 70 basis points to full year margin expansion.

到年底，我們的重整計畫已提前完成 1,000 萬美元的籌資目標。第四季節省了 4000 萬美元，24 年全年節省了 1.1 億美元。重組節省為第四季度貢獻了約 100 個基點，為全年利潤率擴大貢獻了約 70 個基點。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect an incremental $150 million of savings in 2025 and are well on track to achieve our stated objective of $350 million of run rate savings in 2026. Our strong organic growth and the actions that we are taking through ABS to standardize our operations and integrate our platforms are setting the foundation for ongoing margin expansion through operating leverage in our business.

展望未來，我們繼續預計 2025 年將實現 1.5 億美元的增量節約，並且預計將實現 2026 年 3.5 億美元運行率節約的既定目標。我們強勁的有機成長以及我們透過 ABS 採取的標準化營運和整合平台的行動，為我們業務中透過經營槓桿持續擴大利潤奠定了基礎。

Moving to interest, other income and taxes on slide 11. Interest expense of $206 million in the quarter was up $82 million versus last year primarily reflecting the issuance of $7 billion in debt to fund the NFP acquisition. We expect approximately $205 million of interest expense in Q1 '25.

轉到第 11 張投影片上的利息、其他收入和稅收。本季的利息支出為 2.06 億美元，比去年同期增加了 8,200 萬美元，主要反映了發行 70 億美元債務來資助 NFP 收購。我們預計 2025 年第一季的利息支出約為 2.05 億美元。

Other income expense was a $60 million benefit year over year primarily due to the favorable net impact of gains from balance sheet currency exposures and our hedging program. And finally, the Q4 tax rate was 17%, bringing the full year rate to 20%, with the year-over-year increase driven by growth in higher tax geographies, the unfavorable impact of discrete items and policy changes across the globe.

其他收入支出較上年同期增加 6,000 萬美元，主要由於資產負債表貨幣風險和我們的對沖計劃產生的收益的有利淨影響。最後，第四季的稅率為 17%，全年稅率達到 20%，年成長主要是由於高稅率地區的成長、單一項目的不利影響以及全球政策變化。

Let's now discuss free cash flow and capital allocation on slide 12. We generated $2.8 billion of free cash flow in 2024, reflecting strong operating income growth and continued working capital improvements driven by the continued progress on our goal to improve days sales outstanding.

現在讓我們討論第 12 張投影片上的自由現金流和資本配置。我們在 2024 年創造了 28 億美元的自由現金流，反映了強勁的營業收入成長和持續的營運資本改善，這得益於我們不斷實現提高應收帳款週轉天數的目標。

While free cash flow was impacted in 2024 by extraordinary items, all of which we've previously communicated, including the NFP transaction and integration costs, restructuring and legal settlement expenses, we remain confident in underlying free cash flow growth. We continue to expect free cash flow to grow at a double-digit three-year CAGR in 2023 to 2026.

雖然 2024 年的自由現金流受到了非常項目的影響（我們之前已經通報過這些影響，包括 NFP 交易和整合成本、重組和法律和解費用），但我們對潛在的自由現金流增長仍然充滿信心。我們繼續預期自由現金流將在 2023 年至 2026 年間以三年兩位數的複合年增長率成長。

Our strong free cash flow allowed us to pay down $2.1 billion of debt in 2024, and coupled with earnings growth, lowered our debt-to-EBITDA leverage from 4.1 times to 3.4 times. So we are right on track to achieve a 2.8 times to 3 times leverage ratio in Q4 2025, consistent with the objective that we set when we announced the NFP acquisition.

我們強勁的自由現金流使我們能夠在 2024 年償還 21 億美元的債務，再加上獲利成長，將我們的債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率從 4.1 倍降低到 3.4 倍。因此，我們預計在 2025 年第四季實現 2.8 倍至 3 倍的槓桿率，這與我們宣布 NFP 收購時設定的目標一致。

Additionally, we remain active in M&A, continuing our targeted tuck-in acquisitions across priority areas, including continued middle-market acquisitions, which acquired $36 million in EBITDA in 2024 and has a healthy pipeline of expected closings in Q1 '25.

此外，我們仍然積極開展併購活動，繼續在重點領域進行有針對性的補充收購，包括持續的中端市場收購，該收購在 2024 年實現了 3,600 萬美元的 EBITDA，並且預計在 25 年第一季度會有大量的交易完成。

Our independent and connected strategy is resonating in marketplace, and we continue to expect to acquire $45 million to $60 million of EBITDA through NFP middle market acquisition in 2025.

我們的獨立和互聯策略在市場上引起了共鳴，我們繼續預計在 2025 年透過 NFP 中端市場收購獲得 4,500 萬至 6,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Finally, in 2024, we returned $1.6 billion in capital to shareholders, including $1 billion of share repurchases. Our performance in 2024 is a great demonstration of our disciplined capital allocation model, beginning with strong free cash flow generation and capital allocation that balances high-return investments for growth with capital return to shareholders.

最後，在2024年，我們向股東返還了16億美元的資本，其中包括10億美元的股票回購。我們在 2024 年的業績充分證明了我們嚴謹的資本配置模式，首先是強勁的自由現金流產生和資本配置，平衡了成長的高回報投資與股東的資本回報。

I'll wrap up on slide 13 with our 2025 guidance and a few concluding thoughts. In summary, our full year 2025 guidance is mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, adjusted margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth and double-digit free cash flow growth.

我將在第 13 張投影片上總結我們的 2025 年指導和一些總結性想法。總而言之，我們對 2025 年全年的預期是中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長、調整後的利潤率擴大、強勁的調整後每股收益成長和兩位數的自由現金流成長。

Let me highlight the drivers of each guidance point, starting first with organic revenue growth. We expect mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth driven primarily from winning recurring new business from both new logos and existing clients, continued high retention and 0 to 2 points from the net market impact of rate and exposure.

讓我強調一下每個指導點的驅動因素，首先是有機收入成長。我們預計有機收入將實現中等個位數或更高的成長，這主要得益於來自新客戶和現有客戶的經常性新業務、持續的高留存率以及利率和曝光率對淨市場產生的 0 到 2 個百分點的影響。

I'll note that our increased talent acquisition of revenue-generating roles in specialty areas and enterprise client group hires, up 4% in 2024, is expected to contribute to organic revenue growth. Additionally, organic revenue growth is benefiting from our progress driving revenue synergies in NFP, and we remain committed to [$80 million] in NFP revenue synergies in 2025.

我要指出的是，我們在專業領域和企業客戶群中增加的創收職位的人才招聘和招聘，預計到 2024 年將增長 4%，這將有助於有機收入增長。此外，有機收入成長受益於我們在推動 NFP 收入協同效應方面的進展，我們仍致力於在 2025 年實現 [8000 萬美元] 的 NFP 收入協同效應。

Moving to adjusted operating margin. We expect to deliver continued margin expansion in 2025. And as we model the drivers of margin expansion, there are four components to consider. First, the net impact of four additional months of NFP, given the late April 2024 closing and achieving $30 million in OpEx synergies will dilute margins by 20 basis points. I'll note that the impact of four additional months of NFP will primarily be a Q1 impact with the remaining impact in April 2025.

轉向調整後的營業利益率。我們預計 2025 年利潤率將繼續擴大。當我們模擬利潤率擴大的驅動因素時，有四個因素需要考慮。首先，考慮到 2024 年 4 月下旬收盤並實現 3000 萬美元的營運支出協同效應，額外四個月的 NFP 的淨影響將使利潤率稀釋 20 個基點。我要指出的是，額外四個月的 NFP 的影響主要將是第一季的影響，剩餘的影響將出現在 2025 年 4 月。

Second, the interest rate impact on investment income from fiduciary balances is expected to dilute margins by 20 basis points. Third, and as I mentioned earlier, we expect an incremental $150 million in restructuring savings, which would drive approximately 85 basis points of margin expansion.

其次，利率對信託餘額投資收益的影響預計會使利潤率稀釋 20 個基點。第三，正如我之前提到的，我們預計重組節約將增加 1.5 億美元，這將推動利潤率擴大約 85 個基點。

Finally, we expect 35 to 45 basis points of margin expansion from the operating leverage in our business, given the progress that we've made in ABS to drive scale in our ongoing disciplined expense management. The net impact of these four items allows us to fund ongoing growth investments while still driving continued margin expansion in line with our historical performance.

最後，考慮到我們在 ABS 方面取得的進展以及持續嚴格的費用管理所帶來的規模效應，我們預期業務的營運槓桿將帶來 35 至 45 個基點的利潤率擴張。這四項的淨影響使我們能夠為持續的成長投資提供資金，同時仍能推動利潤率繼續擴大，與我們的歷史績效保持一致。

Given our outlook for mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, adjusted margin expansion and accretive NFP performance, we expect to deliver strong adjusted EPS growth in 2025. This guidance reflects our continued strong operating performance, partially offset by an approximately $0.32 or 2-point EPS headwind from FX rates based on today's FX rates remaining stable.

鑑於我們對中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長、調整後利潤率擴大和增值性 NFP 表現的預期，我們預計 2025 年將實現強勁的調整後每股收益成長。該預期反映了我們持續強勁的經營業績，但基於今日外匯匯率保持穩定，外匯匯率帶來的約 0.32 美元或 2 個百分點的每股收益阻力部分抵消了這一業績。

It's also important note that in Q1 '25, we estimate an approximately $110 million FX impact on total revenue and an approximately $0.16 or 3-point EPS headwind. Also embedded in this guidance is an expected tax rate of 19.5% to 20.5%, excluding any extraordinary discrete items. This tax rate considers the geographic mix of our growth and policy changes in the geographies where we are located.

還需要注意的是，在 25 年第一季度，我們估計外匯對總收入的影響約為 1.1 億美元，每股收益阻力約為 0.16 美元或 3 個百分點。本指引也包含預期稅率 19.5% 至 20.5%，不包括任何非常規單項項目。此稅率考慮了我們的成長地理組合以及所在地區的政策變化。

Additionally, we expect noncash pension in OIE to be $88 million compared to $48 million in 2024. This performance positions us for double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025, including over $300 million from NFP driven by adjusted operating income growth and working capital improvements.

此外，我們預計 OIE 的非現金退休金將達到 8,800 萬美元，而 2024 年為 4,800 萬美元。這項業績使我們在 2025 年能夠實現兩位數的自由現金流成長，其中包括來自 NFP 的 3 億多美元，這得益於調整後的營業收入成長和營運資本改善。

Additionally, we expect to continue to return capital to shareholders in 2025, including $1 billion in share repurchases. Our 2025 guidance demonstrates the strength of our business and financial model and prioritizes investments that support sustainable organic revenue growth.

此外，我們預計將在 2025 年繼續向股東返還資本，包括 10 億美元的股票回購。我們的 2025 年指引體現了我們業務和財務模式的實力，並優先考慮支持可持續有機收入成長的投資。

Our execution in ABS is supporting both top line growth and creating investment capacity through margin expansion. As a result, we expect to deliver strong adjusted earnings per share growth and to generate double-digit free cash flow growth. And finally, we continue to have balanced capital allocation, investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders.

我們在 ABS 方面的執行既支持了營收成長，又透過擴大利潤率創造了投資能力。因此，我們預計調整後每股盈餘將強勁成長，自由現金流也將達到兩位數成長。最後，我們繼續平衡資本配置，投資成長並向股東返還資本。

And before closing, one logistical note. Effective this quarter, we will disclose adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin for two operating segments; Risk Capital and Human Capital. Risk Capital includes commercial risk and reinsurance, and Human Capital includes health and wealth.

在結束之前，還有一點後勤說明。從本季開始，我們將揭露兩個營運部門的調整後營業收入和調整後營業利潤率；風險資本和人力資本。風險資本包括商業風險和再保險，人力資本包括健康和財富。

These changes align our external reporting to our 3 by 3 plan and how we go to market to serve clients. And they provide increased transparency to our investors on our ability to drive margin expansion across the enterprise.

這些變更使我們的外部報告與我們的 3 x 3 計劃以及我們進入市場為客戶提供服務的方式保持一致。它們為我們的投資者提供了更大的透明度，使他們能夠推動整個企業的利潤率擴張。

The changes do not impact Aon's reported revenue or consolidated results. And we will also provide resulted financials for the past three years in our 10-K, which will be filed and posted on our website in the coming weeks.

這些變化不會影響怡安的報告收入或合併績效。我們還將在我們的 10-K 報表中提供過去三年的財務結果，該報表將在未來幾週內提交並發佈在我們的網站上。

I will close with four messages. First, Aon delivered strong Q4 financial results to close out a strong 2024, in line with our financial guidance. Second, we are executing on our 3 by 3 plan, including our investments in client-facing capabilities in Aon business services, middle market expansion and priority hiring to drive continued strong performance.

最後，我想講四點。首先，怡安第四季財務業績強勁，為 2024 年畫下圓滿句號，符合我們的財務指引。其次，我們正在執行我們的「3x3」計劃，包括對怡安商業服務的客戶能力、中端市場擴張和優先招聘的投資，以推動持續強勁的業績。

Third, with our 2025 guidance, we are well positioned to continue Aon's long track record delivering mid-single digit or greater organic revenue growth, adjusted margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth and double-digit free cash flow growth. Finally, we continue to have balanced capital allocation priorities, investing in growth, while returning capital to shareholders.

第三，憑藉我們的 2025 年指引，我們有能力延續怡安長期以來的良好業績，實現中等個位數或更高的有機收入增長、調整後利潤率擴大、強勁的調整後每股收益增長和兩位數的自由現金流增長。最後，我們繼續平衡資本配置優先事項，投資成長，同時向股東返還資本。

So with that, let's jump into your questions. Rob, I'll turn it back to you.

那麼，讓我們來回答您的問題。羅布，我會把它還給你。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

謝謝。（操作員指示） Andrew Kligerman，道明證券。

Hey, good morning. So kind of NFP., it sounds like eight months in you've said the integration is on track. Edmund, you cited $45 million to $60 million in targeted acquired EBITDA this year. How does that $45 million to $60 million kind of stack up to in past years when NFP was independent?

嘿，早安。所以有點 NFP，聽起來好像八個月前您說整合正在步入正軌。埃德蒙，您提到今年的目標收購 EBITDA 為 4500 萬至 6000 萬美元。這 4500 萬到 6000 萬美元與過去幾年 NFP 獨立時相比如何？

And I'm most curious about, how well integrated is the platform such that you could do another deal like if you if you are, how do I say if you felt in a nice opportunity we thought there would you be able to do it now? Or is this something that's going to take another 6 to 12 months before you're comfortable?

我最好奇的是，該平台的整合程度如何，以便您可以進行另一筆交易，例如，如果您覺得有一個很好的機會，我們認為您現在就可以做嗎？或者這還需要 6 到 12 個月的時間您才能感到滿足？

Well, Andrew, first of all, really appreciate the questions in the background. I want to focus on the here and now and NFP in particular and get Eric to comment on this as he's leading this across the firms.

好吧，安德魯，首先，我非常感謝你提出的問題。我想重點關注當前的情況，尤其是非農就業數據，並請艾瑞克對此發表評論，因為他正在領導整個公司的這項工作。

Listen, we had such high expectations with NFP coming in, and they've really been exceeded on every front. This combination, the independent and connected has worked exceptionally well from a client leader standpoint, and Eric can give some examples of that. The platforms have come together exceptionally well.

聽著，我們對非農就業數據抱有很高的期望，而實際上，各個方面都超出了我們的預期。從客戶領導者的角度來看，這種獨立與互聯的結合效果非常好，艾瑞克可以舉一些例子。這些平台整合得非常好。

Aon Business Services as it's connected to NFP has been extraordinarily positive. So from our standpoint, really from a revenue standpoint, organic standpoint, an operating standpoint, free cash flow standpoint, as Edmund described are feeling very, very good about the combination and all that's come with it, the access to the $31 billion market.

怡安商業服務 (Aon Business Services) 與非農就業資料 (NFP) 的關聯性十分正面。因此，從我們的角度來看，實際上從收入角度、有機角度、營運角度、自由現金流角度來看，正如埃德蒙所描述的，我們對這次合併以及隨之而來的一切感到非常非常滿意，可以進入價值 310 億美元的市場。

So from our standpoint, this has been absolutely terrific. It's eight months in, as Edmund highlighted, with a long way to go, but my gosh, are we making progress in every single aspect of this been. But Eric, you're leading it day to day. What are your thoughts?

所以從我們的角度來看，這絕對是了不起的。正如埃德蒙所強調的，已經過去了 8 個月，還有很長的路要走，但是天哪，我們是否在每個方面都取得了進展？但是埃里克，你每天都在領導它。您的想法是什麼？

Sure, Gregg and Andrew, nicely review, I would say on the M&A piece, on the historical context, it's similar to what they have done historically. They've always been very specific as they look to bring firms into their platform. So it can continue in terms of what they've been doing historically and we've just been excited to see the opportunities that have come our way.

當然，格雷格和安德魯，很好地回顧了一下，我想說，關於併購部分，從歷史背景來看，這與他們歷史上所做的類似。他們始終非常明確地尋求將公司納入他們的平台。因此，他們可以繼續按照過去的做法行事，我們也很高興看到我們面臨的機會。

And a lot of it is about this independent and connected strategy that we've engaged both within our for our minerals within the broader marketplace and it helping identify M&A targets, people that want to come to us that understand what we're doing around keeping the platform independent by connecting it to the capabilities that Aon has.

其中很大一部分是關於這種獨立和互聯的策略，我們在更廣闊的市場中為我們的礦產採用了這種策略，它有助於確定併購目標，那些想要來找我們的人了解我們在保持平台獨立性方面所做的工作，即透過將平台與怡安的能力相連接。

And as Edmund and Greg both said, we saw some great growth across all three of their main core platforms. But -- and maybe if I could, just to describe it for you because I think it would help people to understand exactly what we mean by connected.

正如埃德蒙和格雷格所說，我們看到他們的三個主要核心平台都取得了顯著的成長。但是——如果可以的話，我只是想為你描述一下，因為我認為這會幫助人們準確地理解我們所說的「連結」是什麼意思。

Now we think about it in kind of three buckets. We've got the, let's call it, the utilization of the Aon network. And just an example, one of the NFP clients is a major sports league where they used our global broking center in London, accessing the Aon client treaty to get more capacity for a challenging renewal that they were facing.

現在我們從三個角度來思考這個問題。我們已經獲得了可以稱之為 Aon 網路的利用率。舉個例子，其中一位 NFP 客戶是一家大型運動聯盟，他們利用我們位於倫敦的全球經紀中心，透過與怡安客戶簽訂協議，獲得更多能力來應對他們所面臨的具有挑戰性的續約。

I would say the other -- the second one would be industry and product specialization where, as another example, NFP had a professional services client who they were working in the health arena. And they were able to partner with our team that had a focus in that industry in the risk area. And together, we're able to now provide risk capability services for that client.

我想說的是另一個——第二個是產業和產品專業化，再舉一個例子，NFP 有一個專業服務客戶，他們在醫療領域工作。他們能夠與我們專注於該行業風險領域的團隊合作。現在，我們可以共同為該客戶提供風險能力服務。

And then the third is sort of across Risk Capital, where they have an MGA that needed reinsurance support. And so we were able to use Aon reinsurance capability to help the MGA that is part of NFP get capacity and better reinsurance terms.

第三個是風險資本，他們有一個需要再保險支持的 MGA。因此，我們能夠利用怡安再保險能力來幫助 NFP 一部分的 MGA 獲得承保能力和更好的再保險條款。

So there's a lot happening. The connection between the teams, always hard to describe on a call like this, but the work and effort and energy and positive intent around creating growth and opportunities across the platforms has been, as Greg said, it exceeded our expectations and really looking forward to getting added in '25.

因此發生了很多事情。在這樣的電話會議上，很難描述團隊之間的聯繫，但正如格雷格所說，在跨平台創造成長和機會的工作、努力、精力和積極意圖已經超出了我們的預期，我們真的很期待在25年加入。

Got it. Thank you. And then my follow-up question is around reinsurance solutions. I mean that 6% organic growth was great because it was on really tough comps. And one of the areas you called out was the ILS market where you're number one.

知道了。謝謝。我的後續問題是關於再保險解決方案。我的意思是，6% 的有機成長率非常棒，因為它是在非常艱難的競爭中實現的。您提到的其中一個領域是 ILS 市場，而您在該市場中佔據第一。

And I think on the call, maybe Edmund mentioned cat bonds. But it seems like ILS is really just proliferating. I mean you've got cyber bond now. How big of our business relative to the overall revenues of reinsurance is ILS? And could that be a big driver of continued better-than-expected organic growth?

我認為埃德蒙在電話中可能提到了巨災債券。但看起來 ILS 確實正在蓬勃發展。我的意思是你現在已經有網路債券了。相對於再保險的整體收入而言，ILS 在我們的業務中所佔比例有多大？這是否會成為持續優於預期的有機成長的重要推手？

So I would say the ILS. business continues to be a very sort of boutique business. It within reinsurance in terms of the scale of a traditional reinsurance treaties on property cat and liability and specialty of about the market that we're so excited about sort of fits underneath this risk capital framework with the ability, to bringing that type of capability, whether it's cat bond for property, whether it's cyber is you mentioned over into the corporate space and being able to sit down with a large corporate client who has a huge real estate portfolio, very diversified in their own right and have access to capital, that's essentially driven by the ILS structure into the capital markets to gives them another tool as they look to transfer risk across.

所以我會說 ILS。業務仍然是一種精品業務。就傳統再保險條約的規模而言，它在再保險領域中的財產巨災保險和責任險，以及有關市場的專業性，讓我們感到非常興奮，它適合這種風險資本框架，能夠將這種能力，無論是財產巨災債券，還是網絡巨災債券，都帶入企業領域，能夠與擁有龐大房地產投資組合的大型企業客戶坐下來，這些投資組合本身就非常多樣化，而且可以獲得資本，這基本上是由 ILS 結構帶入資本市場的，為他們提供了另一種工具，讓他們可以轉移風險。

So reinsurers are obviously still users and continues to manage the tail risk on what you would call a cat bond. But you are seeing interest in the corporate market, on the private market, looking at those types of structures, whether in the form of a curve metric bond or an ILS cat bond.

因此，再保險公司顯然仍然是用戶，並繼續管理所謂的巨災債券尾部風險。但你會看到企業市場和私人市場對這些類型的結構感興趣，無論是曲線度量債券還是 ILS 巨災債券。

Let's just what are the examples where the teams of reinsurance and insurance are working closely together. But Edmund, what would you add?

讓我們來看看再保險和保險團隊緊密合作的例子。但是埃德蒙，您還有什麼要補充的呢？

Yeah. Let me just add a point. The -- relative to the overall portfolio, Andrew, it's a smaller component, but it is driving growth. And that's part of the beauty of the reinsurance business, but Aon overall is the broad-based growth that we're seeing.

是的。讓我補充一點。安德魯，相對於整體投資組合來說，它是一個較小的組成部分，但它正在推動成長。這是再保險業務的優勢之一，但總體而言，怡安正在實現廣泛的成長。

So we saw a contribution from the ILS securities. We saw a contribution from our strategy and technology group. If you listen to my prepared remarks, you saw that I actually called that out first, in addition to our ongoing growth with the largest part of our reinsurance business in treaty and in fact as well.

因此，我們看到了 ILS 證券的貢獻。我們看到了來自策略和技術團隊的貢獻。如果您聽了我準備好的發言，您會發現我實際上首先提到了這一點，此外，我們的再保險業務中最大的部分是在條約方面持續增長。

So that dynamic is across each one of our solution lines, where it's broad-based, and we're seeing growth maybe incrementally in one area relative to the others. But at the end of the day, it comes back to me -- it comes back down to like our ability to be able to retain these reinsurance clients and our ability to bring more capital solutions and other options to the table for them to be able to drive that growth with our existing clients and bringing new clients to it.

因此，這種動態貫穿我們每一個解決方案系列，它具有廣泛的基礎，我們看到一個領域相對於其他領域可能會逐步成長。但到最後，對我來說，還是要看我們是否有能力留住這些再保險客戶，是否有能力為他們提供更多的資本解決方案和其他選擇，以便能夠透過現有客戶推動成長並帶來新客戶。

So that's the key thing when we think about the overall growth impact and profile for Aon moving forward.

因此，當我們考慮怡安未來整體成長的影響和前景時，這是關鍵因素。

Thanks much to the insights.

非常感謝您的見解。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. I had a question on some of the components for that mid-single-digit or greater outlook on and thanks and then for some of those. I guess I'm wondering from 0 points to 2 points from the net market impact of rate and exposure, could you help me think through our retention improvement efforts that might be a tailwind to growth as well as what you guys have assumed for a rebound in M&A services versus where it was in 2024?

早安.我對一些關於中等個位數或更高前景的組成部分有疑問，謝謝，然後對其中一些有疑問。我想知道利率和風險敞口對淨市場的影響是從 0 分到 2 分，您能否幫助我思考一下我們的保留改進工作，這可能會推動增長，以及你們對併購服務的反彈有何假設與 2024 年相比？

Yeah.

是的。

Sorry, I think Greg was on mute. Maybe are saying something there so much jump in here on this and Gregory you back or --

抱歉，我認為 Greg 靜音了。也許有人在說一些事情，所以跳到這裡，格雷戈里你回來或--

Go ahead.

前進。

Sorry, sorry about. That is a little bit difficultly here. It's a great question. Like the components of your question was really on the retention. It was on the M&A services, but organic revenue growth overall. So just step back. The key thing for me, first of all is that we just finished this strong quarter in a strong year, 6% organic revenue growth. That gives me a lot of confidence that we're doing to be able to drive it across the broad based set of solutions that I've just talked about is a strong position to be in year one of our plan.

抱歉，抱歉。這裡有一點困難。這是一個很好的問題。就像您問題的組成部分確實與保留有關。這是關於併購服務，但總體而言是有機收入成長。所以就退後一步。對我來說，關鍵的一點是，首先我們剛結束了這一強勁的季度，有機收入成長了 6%。這給了我很大的信心，我們正在努力推動廣泛的解決方案，這是我們計劃第一年所取得的強勁進展。

And importantly, it's the momentum going in the fiscal 2025. And that's where your question begins, what are the drivers with that? First for me, it really is the new business and up from existing clients in new clients in the trends there, very healthy right? We just -- I think I said in my remarks, Q4 ended with 12 points of contribution in that space, including the M&A service, which is modest right now, given where it is.

重要的是，這是 2025 財年的發展動能。這就是你要問的問題：其驅動因素是什麼？首先對我來說，這確實是新業務，並且從現有客戶中增加新客戶，這種趨勢非常健康，對嗎？我們只是 - 我想我在我的評論中說過，第四季度結束時該領域的貢獻為 12 點，包括併購服務，考慮到目前的狀況，目前的貢獻還不算多。

And I've commented that you need a superior growth, maybe 4 times the overall business, I see it be a significant impact our business and this is modest right now. We're seeing pickup there. But the trends that are healthy, 12 points of contribution from net new business, including M&A in Q4, 10 points in the full year, sort of 0.1.

我曾經評論說，你需要一個卓越的成長，也許是整體業務的 4 倍，我認為這會對我們的業務產生重大影響，而目前這一影響還很小。我們看到那裡正在回升。但趨勢是健康的，淨新業務貢獻了 12 個百分點，包括第四季度的併購，全年貢獻了 10 個百分點，約 0.1。

I think as you think about your modeling and the things that's going to sustain our growth, be aware of the priority hiring, we specifically called out the double digit growth in construction. We called out -- or at least out follow-up nailed the double digit growth that I saw an energy. Those are areas that we've been focused in hiring on and we're starting to see contribution from them as well. That will support our mid single digit organic growth.

我認為，當你考慮你的建模和將維持我們成長的因素時，要注意優先招聘，我們特別提到了建築業的兩位數成長。我們大聲疾呼——或者至少我們的後續行動確定了兩位數的增長，我看到了一種活力。這些是我們招募時重點關注的領域，我們也開始看到他們的貢獻。這將支持我們實現中等個位數的有機成長。

And then you just heard Eric just highlighting the strength in FP over the first month. And so that put it that we made about $80 million in synergies, that will also, that's one of the things that strengthens and gives us confidence in that mid-single digit growth.

然後你剛剛聽到 Eric 強調了 FP 在第一個月的優勢。因此，我們透過協同效應實現了約 8000 萬美元的成長，這也是增強我們信心並讓我們對中等個位數成長充滿信心的因素之一。

I appreciate the fact that you brought up retention because we've been seeing strengthening retention, particularly in our commercial risk business, particularly in North America, given the work that Laurie in our leadership team in North America have been driving. So I expect continued mid single 90 is performance there. And I will actually add the rollout of the ABS capabilities that Greg mentioned in his comments, is also supporting that retention.

我很欣賞您提到留存率的問題，因為我們看到留存率不斷提高，特別是在我們的商業風險業務中，特別是在北美，這得益於北美領導團隊的勞裡 (Laurie) 所推動的工作。因此我預計 90 年代中期的單曲表現將持續。我實際上要補充的是，Greg 在評論中提到的 ABS 功能的推出也支持這種保留。

Now market impact is the thing that moves up and down. I think it's a reasonable assumption to have that it would be 0 points to 2 points impact this year here. And I think the early signs that we see from things like one, one renewals suggest that we're right in line with our plan here. So I just have super high confidence in margin and our top line growth. And maybe I'll turn it to Eric for any comments he'd add to that.

現在，市場影響是上下波動的。我認為，可以合理地假設今年的影響將是 0 分到 2 分。我認為，我們從諸如一次性續約等事情中看到的早期跡象表明，我們完全按照我們的計劃進行。因此，我對利潤率和我們的營收成長非常有信心。也許我會把它交給 Eric，看看他對此有何評論。

Sure. I think it sort of goes into the talent, but you're right in terms of as you're mentioning, that would be specific hires that we're making in the growth areas around energy, around construction, around middle market, where I think the culture and the message and the analytic tools that we are developing for clients is actually drawing talent.

當然。我認為這與人才有關，但正如您所說，我們在能源、建築、中端市場等成長領域進行的特定招聘，我認為我們為客戶開發的文化、資訊和分析工具實際上吸引了人才。

And but when you think about AI, I'll go back to the retention question, the reality is getting our 65,000 colleagues, making sure that they're well trained, well supported either through industry specialization, product specialization, segmentation, all of that provides a better outcome for our clients.

但當你想到人工智慧時，我會回到保留問題，現實情況是讓我們的 65,000 名同事得到良好的培訓，透過行業專業化、產品專業化、細分化獲得良好的支持，所有這些都為我們的客戶提供更好的結果。

So when you think about the team and its expertise and you match it with the tool is that are being developed in ABS followed by the service capabilities, all of that delivers the client experience that we're looking for them. And that comes across in the three by three strategy, that Greg was talking about in his opening remarks.

因此，當您考慮團隊及其專業知識並將其與 ABS 中正在開發的工具和服務能力相匹配時，所有這些都會提供我們所期望的客戶體驗。格雷格在開場白中談到的「三乘三」策略就體現了這一點。

So I think when you put all that together, getting that strong foundation and client retention is the key to growth in Q2 to sort of long-term value creation for clients.

因此，我認為，把所有這些放在一起，打下堅實的基礎和保留客戶是實現第二季度成長的關鍵，也是為客戶創造長期價值的關鍵。

Great, thanks. And then maybe Edmund, you just following up there and you had commented that you're seeing strengthening retention in North America within commercial risks. Is that back or is that sort of at historic levels, below historic levels? Is there continued room for improvement there specifically? Just to get back to where we were historically or some elaboration on that point would be helpful.

太好了，謝謝。然後也許埃德蒙，你剛剛跟進了一下，並且你評論說你看到北美商業風險的保留率正在加強。這是回落了還是處於歷史水準或低於歷史水準？具體來說，是否還有繼續進步的空間？只要回到我們的歷史位置或對這一點進行一些闡述就會有所幫助。

Sure. Maybe this is Eric. I'll take that one. Listen there's always room for improvement in retention until about 100%. And so we're maniacally focused on making sure we are keeping all of our clients and serving them all well. But to get to your direct question, is it back to historical norms? The answer that is yes.

當然。也許這就是埃里克。我要那個。聽著，記憶力總有提升的空間，直到達到 100% 左右。因此，我們全神貫注於確保留住所有客戶並為他們提供良好的服務。但回到你的直接問題，它是否回到了歷史常態？答案是肯定的。

But we are looking -- we're never satisfied with historical norms are always trying to improve, which is what's driving the -- when you think about three by three strategy and risk capital, human capital framework that's one of the reasons we did. The ability to show a client, the global capability around capital, the consulting side, it's the ability to connect the global network, we're going to talk about talent and health and wealth together to provide more value to clients and then powered by through the tools and capabilities that are unmatched in the industry. You put that are out of segmentation strategy at an industry focus strategy. And that's a winning formula for us.

但我們正在審視——我們從不滿足於歷史規範，始終試圖改進，這就是推動我們前進的動力——當你考慮三乘三戰略和風險資本、人力資本框架時，這就是我們這樣做的原因之一。向客戶展示圍繞資本的全球能力、諮詢方面的能力，這是連接全球網絡的能力，我們將一起討論人才、健康和財富，為客戶提供更多價值，然後透過行業中無與倫比的工具和能力提供支持。你把這些脫離細分戰略的策略放在了產業重點戰略。這就是我們的成功秘訣。

And now only for clients, but your perspective people to join the firm, and so we feel good about the progress we've made a '24. There's always work to do, but we feel good as we're going into '25.

現在不僅針對客戶，而且針對您的視角，人們加入了公司，因此我們對'24'所取得的進展感到滿意。總有工作要做，但我們對即將進入25年感到很高興。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question on is on commercial risk and I guess the set up into the Q1, right, you've had a couple of brokers might that have flat, I guess seasonally softer Q1's and in their retail brokerage businesses. But I would think for you guys some of the items you mentioned Edmund like hiring coming online, et cetera, will help, but also you guys have an easier year-over-year comps. So do you think does the setup for Q1 theme seasonally stronger in commercial risk?

嗨，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是關於商業風險的，我想在第一季的情況是這樣的，有幾家經紀商的零售經紀業務可能表現平淡，我想這是由於季節性原因，第一季的業績會比較疲軟。但我認為，對你們來說，艾德蒙提到的一些事項，例如線上招募等等，都會有所幫助，而且你們的同比業績也會更容易實現。那麼，您是否認為第一季主題的設定會因季節性因素而變得更強？

I think overall at -- I think overall reasons, there's nothing about our Q1 to highlight in terms of seasonality, the things that I'd point out within our guidance or just on the top line, the FX impact that I pointed out in my prepared remarks, when we think about the interest rate impact of fiduciary investment income, which doesn't impact organic, but it does have an impact on total revenue. Those are the only two things that I would say are out of normal sort of performance in Q1. Other than that, there's nothing that I've highlighted about seasonality of performance there.

我認為總體而言——我認為總體而言，就季節性而言，我們第一季沒有什麼可強調的，我想在我們的指導中指出的事情，或者僅在頂線上，我在準備好的評論中指出的外匯影響，當我們考慮受託投資收益的利率影響時，它不會影響有機收入，但確實對總收入有影響。我想說的是，這是第一季僅有的兩件表現異常的事情。除此之外，我沒有強調任何關於性能季節性的內容。

And I captured it very well. At least that for a second, if you think about overall where we are up from a growth standpoint, we are very committed to the mid-single-digit or greater you think about 2025 across the board. Again, it's come back, why? On a macro level, look, we operate in a very diverse market up across risk, retirement, health and talent. And that includes on the commercial restaurant, the markets, as we said, we are growing and literally these megatrends that we've talked about on various call around trade technology well, whether in workforce are meaningful, their real, our clients are seeing them every day.

我捕捉到了這一點。至少，如果你從成長的角度考慮我們整體的成長情況，我們致力於在 2025 年實現中等個位數或更高的全面成長。它又回來了，為什麼？從宏觀層面來看，我們在一個非常多樣化的市場中運營，涉及風險、退休、健康和人才。正如我們所說，其中包括商業餐廳、市場，我們正在發展，我們在各種貿易技術電話會議上討論的這些大趨勢，無論在勞動力方面是否有意義，它們都是真實的，我們的客戶每天都在看到它們。

Remember, the market still relatively underpenetrated and you take all of that new essentially say demand is increasing and we've got to be able to react to it. To react to, it requires a connected response. And although we're doing the three by three. So literally, we are going to show up on Monday as Aon in the property symposium in Miami, it's going to be 500 clients from the entire property markets going to stand still for three days, with the biggest fire, in the biggest markets in the world sitting here, looking at the next iteration of our analyzer tool on the property side and really talking about their strategies on property.

請記住，市場滲透率仍然相對較低，而所有這些新事物本質上都表明需求正在增加，我們必須能夠對此做出反應。為了做出反應，它需要一個連接的響應。儘管我們是在三三兩兩地進行。所以實際上，我們將於週一作為怡安出席在邁阿密舉行的房地產研討會，來自整個房地產市場的 500 名客戶將在世界上最大的市場中圍坐在一起，靜坐三天，研究我們在房地產方面的分析工具的下一次迭代，並真正討論他們的房地產策略。

So for us, it's really about demand and how it's evolved and about our capability to respond to it and why we're committed to achieving mid-single-digit or greater and expect that through 2025.

因此對我們來說，真正重要的是需求、需求如何演變、我們應對需求的能力，以及為什麼我們致力於實現中等個位數或更高的成長，並預計在 2025 年實現這一目標。

Thanks. I the $45 million to $60 million on EBITDA from an M&A from NFP's that you mentioned Edmund, is that included within your 2025 guidance?

謝謝。您提到的 Edmund 的 NFP 併購帶來的 4500 萬至 6000 萬美元 EBITDA 是否包含在您的 2025 年指引中？

Yes. Yes, it is. Both on the revenue impact associated with that is captured in the margin and the overall earnings growth as well. So all of that is embedded.

是的。是的。與此相關的收入影響體現在利潤率和整體獲利成長。因此所有這些都是嵌入的。

And then one other point on -- sorry, go ahead.

還有另外一點——抱歉，請繼續。

No, go ahead. I'm sorry, please go ahead.

不，繼續吧。抱歉，請繼續。

On the $1 billion you guys gave the buyback for '25. And you said like you're kind of be within your leverage target at the end of the year. So we could or should we expect that maybe we could see a step-up in on share repurchase in '25, just given like you'll be done with leverage management actions post NFP.

你們為 25 年回購了 10 億美元。您說過，到年底您將能夠達到自己的槓桿目標。因此，我們可以或應該預期，也許我們可以看到25年股票回購的增加，就像NFP之後的槓桿管理行動一樣。

Yeah. So I mean, I'll start off by saying it capital free cash flow generation in particular, was a point of strength for us in 2024, right? We are certainly focused on continuing to generate strong free cash flow in 2025. That's going to come from the operating income, is going to come from the earnings. We're going to paid down the debt due to the leverage ratio and be focused on that.

是的。所以我的意思是，我首先要說的是，特別是資本自由現金流的產生，是我們在 2024 年的一個優勢，對吧？我們當然致力於在 2025 年持續創造強勁的自由現金流。這將來自營業收入，來自收益。我們將償還因槓桿率而產生的債務，並集中精力於此。

We think that allows us to have capacities, we think about the pipeline that we have an M&A right now and still return that capital in '25 to shareholders. As we get through '25, and closer to 2026 will come and give guidance on that point, with more detail.

我們認為這使我們能夠擁有能力，我們考慮現在進行的併購管道，並在 25 年將資本返還給股東。隨著我們度過25年並接近2026年，我們將對這一點提供更詳細的指導。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Hi. First I just had a question on your financial guidance. It seems like you're fairly specific on organic growth and on cash flows, but somewhat to be gone EPS growth. So just trying to think about what strong EPS growth means. Does it mean double digits? Or if not, then just maybe highlight some of the key points that could make it be double digit or fall short of that?

你好。首先，我對您的財務指導有一個疑問。看起來你對有機成長和現金流相當關注，但對每股盈餘成長則有些忽視。所以只是想思考一下強勁的每股盈餘成長意味著什麼。這是否意味著兩位數？或者如果不是，那麼也許只是強調一些可能使其達到兩位數或達不到這個數字的關鍵點？

Yeah. In fact, look, I think that the guidance that we gave is quite detailed when we ticked through it. And as we gave such detailed guidance, as we have set high confidence in it plan.

是的。事實上，你看，我認為當我們仔細閱讀時，我們給出的指導是相當詳細的。由於我們給出瞭如此詳細的指導，我們對該計劃充滿信心。

So I just talked about the organic revenue growth component in and do you think about what I said in the prepared remarks about margin expansion that's quite detailed for components that should net between 80 basis points and 90 basis points of margin expansion. So that gives you a sense there on the operating side of the business.

因此，我剛才談到了有機收入成長組成部分，您是否考慮過我在準備好的發言中關於利潤率擴張的說法，其中非常詳細地說明了應帶來 80 個基點至 90 個基點的利潤率擴張的組成部分。這可以讓您了解業務的營運方面。

We talked about organic revenue growth, I gave you four items, that's quite clear on the margin expansion that should net to 80 basis points to 90 basis points, which is right in line with our historical performance. To continue with EPS, I think there are a couple of things that keep in mind the non-operating items. The FX impact, a $0.32 or 2 points headwind, the OIE, impact from pension that drives into it. And you should be able to get depending upon your assumption for mid-single digit organic revenue growth or greater organic revenue growth, we should be able to get to an adjusted EPS number.

我們談到了有機收入成長，我給了你四個項目，利潤率擴張顯然應該達到 80 個基點到 90 個基點，這與我們的歷史表現一致。為了繼續討論每股收益，我認為有幾件事需要記住非經營項目。外匯影響，0.32 美元或 2 點的逆風，OIE，退休金的影響。而且，根據您對中等個位數有機收入成長或更高有機收入成長的假設，我們應該能夠得到調整後的每股盈餘數字。

So again, I think that is quite detailed guidance, should we have a high level of confidence in that plan, the guidance corresponds with it. So we're excited to continue to execute, and we think we're right on track to be able to hit our 2025 and our overall three by three objectives.

所以，我再次認為，這是非常詳細的指導，如果我們對該計劃有高度的信心，那麼該指導就會與之相對應。因此，我們很高興能夠繼續執行，我們認為我們正朝著實現 2025 年和我們的整體三乘三目標的方向前進。

And Jimmy, just like it out of that a little bit. First, I just I do want to step back Edmunds point around the insight in the guidance provided as we have completed the year, it really is a substantial step up from over force, all credit to Edmund and the finance team for sort of bringing that perspective and view. It really does help you decompose in a more effective way.

吉米 (Jimmy) 有點喜歡這個。首先，我確實想回顧一下埃德蒙的觀點，即我們在完成這一年時提供的指導中的見解，這確實是從過度壓力中邁出的實質性一步，這一切都歸功於埃德蒙和財務團隊帶來了這種觀點和看法。它確實可以幫助您以更有效的方式分解。

And as Edmund said in his comments, is intended fully to give you more competence, our ability to continue to maintain would have been decade-long trends in terms of operating improvement. And you'll see that you do step back think about it for, all the different challenges and opportunities, amendments and heat up. We've encountered those for the last -- for the last decade plus.

正如埃德蒙在評論中所說，這完全是為了給你更多的能力，我們繼續保持的能力將是十年來運營改進的趨勢。你會發現，你確實退後一步思考了一下，所有的不同挑戰和機會、修正和熱度。過去十多年來，我們一直面臨這些問題。

And you think about it, it's 11% of free cash flow growth and 11% EPS growth over a decade plus in the context of movements in FX and movements in interest rates and movements in inflation and movements in the market. And so we want to give you as much transparency as we can, but be confident we're going to work to play to do we do, to drive client and colleague impact but yield and outcome around financial performance, and that's what you'll see us do.

想想看，在外匯、利率、通貨膨脹和市場變動的背景下，十多年來，自由現金流成長了 11%，每股盈餘成長了 11%。因此，我們希望盡可能為您提供透明度，但請相信，我們將努力發揮作用，推動客戶和同事產生影響，但收益和結果圍繞著財務績效，這就是您將看到我們所做的事情。

And then maybe a follow up on your long-term strategy for share buybacks. Is there a change going forward than what you've done in the past, I guess in 2025, you are sort of going to be deleveraging. But beyond that, should we assume that you're going to be fairly consistent in terms of deploying capital towards buybacks? Or is the balance going to be more shifting 2m for M&A other users?

然後也許會跟進你的長期股票回購策略。與過去相比，未來是否會有改變？ 我猜 2025 年，你們將會去槓桿化。但除此之外，我們是否應該假設您在部署回購資本方面將相當一致？或者，對於併購其他用戶來說，平衡是否會進一步轉向 200 萬？

Listen, I'm going to comment on that specifically, but just for a backdrop of a step back Jimmy, remember our view, we're focused on clients and colleagues with outcome and yields that comes out of that is driven by free cash flow and free cash flow growth. And that's the 11% number for the decade plus. Part of that is capital allocation, absolutely central. So your question is exactly right, but step back and understand our orientation is what it has always been. It's a return on invested capital, cash-on-cash return. We're making allocations inorganic.

聽著，我將具體對此發表評論，但只是為了回顧一下吉米，記住我們的觀點，我們專注於客戶和同事，其結果和收益是由自由現金流和自由現金流增長驅動的。這是十多年來 11% 的成長數字。其中一部分是資本配置，這絕對是核心。所以你的問題完全正確，但退一步來看，我們就會明白我們的方向一直都是這樣的。這是投資資本的回報，即現金回報。我們正在進行無機分配。

We're making allocations in buyback, in M&A, building the strength of our firm and doing so we're going to drive the yields that I just described. So for us that has it changed at all. And we'll continue to evaluate and drive what we do based on our orientation. What we hope you come away, which is a renewed enthusiasm for what the three by three plans done for that. The investment and risk capital and human capital creates real opportunity for us, enterprise clients and client leadership creates real opportunity for us.

我們正在透過回購和併購等方式進行分配，增強公司實力，這樣做的目的是提高我剛才描述的收益率。所以對我們來說這完全改變了。我們將繼續根據我們的定位來評估和推動我們的工作。我們希望你們能對「三乘三」計畫所取得的成果重新燃起熱情。投資和風險資本以及人力資本為我們創造了真正的機會，企業客戶和客戶領導也為我們創造了真正的機會。

And then really, ABS is such a unique asset that we have cultivated for seven plus, eight plus years, but is now really coming online as part of the three by three plants, all of which is, we think can generate, extraordinarily strong free cash flow, again, reinforced by NFP.

然後實際上，ABS 是一種非常獨特的資產，我們已經培育了七八年多的時間，但現在才真正作為三乘三工廠的一部分上線，我們認為所有這些工廠都可以產生異常強勁的自由現金流，同樣，NFP 也會對此起到促進作用。

So from our standpoint, we've got a lot to do with a great free cash flow pool coming online. And we'll take the same approach, we've always taken in the context of overall allocation as things come along.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們與上線的龐大自由現金流池有很大關係。我們將採取同樣的辦法，我們一直在整體分配的背景下採取這一辦法。

Edmund, what would you add to that? You're coordinating this and orchestrate.

埃德蒙，您對此還有什麼補充嗎？你負責協調和安排這一切。

Not much, Greg, because I think you hit it when you said there's been no change to the capital allocation policy right here. We are -- to your point very much focused on investing for growth and capital returns to shareholders and having that balance, right.

沒什麼，格雷格，因為我認為當你說這裡的資本配置政策沒有改變時你就明白了。正如您所說，我們非常注重投資成長並向股東提供資本回報，並實現這種平衡，對吧。

So in 2025, we're clearly going to be focused on getting back to the leverage objectives that we won't. But we think the free cash flow strength gives us capacity to evaluate weight the right opportunities that meet our strategic criteria and meet our financial criteria and if not return that capital back to our shareholders that has worked for our shareholders and benefited our shareholders long before I came here. So we're certainly not changing that.

因此，在 2025 年，我們顯然將專注於重新實現我們不會實現的槓桿目標。但我們認為，自由現金流的實力使我們有能力評估符合我們戰略標準和財務標準的正確機會，如果沒有，那麼將這些資本返還給我們的股東，這些資本早在我來這裡之前就已經為我們的股東服務並使我們股東受益。所以我們肯定不會改變這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場部的 Mike Zaremski。

Hey, good morning. This is Charlie on for Mike. First question that, does the tax rate guidance contemplates or you see the pillar two agreements earlier and there's still uncertainty around tax rates there in the coming year. Thanks.

嘿，早安。這是 Charlie 代替 Mike 上場。第一個問題是，稅率指導是否考慮到了或您是否看到了先前的第二支柱協議，並且未來一年的稅率仍然存在不確定性。謝謝。

Yeah, there is always uncertainty around tax, but let me just maybe step back and the short answer to your question that it contemplates what we know today. Obviously, this is an environment is changing. And so it contemplates what we know today. When you step back though, the complexity of operating in a 120 countries, our tax rate really just comes down to growing in those higher tax geographies, Germany's at 33%, Australia is at 30%, Canada is at 27%. The impact of discrete is a number two item, and there's a long tail for the impact of tax returns from prior years. And recently the policy changes like the ones that you were just mentioning.

是的，稅收總是存在不確定性，但讓我退一步來看看你的問題，簡短地回答一下，它考慮了我們今天所知道的情況。顯然，這是一個正在改變的環境。所以它思考了我們今天所知道的事情。然而，如果你退一步考慮在 120 個國家開展業務的複雜性，我們的稅率實際上只是在那些稅率較高的地區增長，德國為 33%，澳大利亞為 30%，加拿大為 27%。離散的影響是第二大因素，而前幾年報稅單的影響則具有較長的時間。最近，政策發生了一些變化，就像您剛才提到的那樣。

The complexity, though, in calibrating those three items over a multiyear time periods that complexities real. But so point that Greg made earlier, we took some extra time, we thought through the scenarios because we had an objective to getting to a target range for tax that we are confident that and we feel comfortable sharing externally in that range is 19.5% to 20.5%, which is right in line with 2024 and captures all that we know today that support, from my perspective is that allows us to continue to grow internationally, which means more resilient earnings for us in that tax rate still allows us to invest.

然而，在多年的時間段內校準這三個項目的複雜性是真實存在的。但是正如格雷格之前提出的觀點，我們花了一些額外的時間，我們仔細考慮了各種情況，因為我們的目標是達到一個我們有信心並且我們願意對外分享的目標稅率範圍，即 19.5% 到 20.5%，這與 2024 年的稅率完全一致，並且涵蓋了我們今天所知道的所有支持，從我的角度來看，這意味著我們能夠繼續獲得國際收益，並且可以獲得這種投資的所有支持，從我的角度來看，這仍然可以讓我們在國際上獲得彈性，這意味著我們可以獲得這種收益。

So we feel comfortable with that range, given all the way work that we've done and what we know today is more reveals itself will come back and let you know.

因此，考慮到我們所做的所有工作以及我們今天所知道的情況，我們對該範圍感到滿意，更多的資訊將會回來讓你知道。

And Charlie, just reinforces the -- if you think about historically our capability are on the balance sheet capital side and what's happening in this category to it's been very, very strong. And what Edmund and the team have done is really provided a level of clarity of with a 19.5% to 20.5% guidance for 2025, which is a first for us. Really, it just gives you a way to kind of think about the modeling of this with the best reflection we've got, reflecting historical strengths and our ability to adapt as the world continues to evolve.

查理，如果你回顧一下歷史，你會發現我們的能力在於資產負債表資本方面，而這個類別的表現一直非常非常強勁。埃德蒙和他的團隊所做的確實提供了一定程度的清晰度，為 2025 年提供了 19.5％至 20.5％的指導，這對我們來說是第一次。實際上，它只是為您提供了一種思考建模的方法，以我們所擁有的最佳反思來反映歷史優勢和我們在世界不斷發展變化時的適應能力。

You've highlighted where it might evolve and we'll see how it plays. But for now, we're very comfortable with this. And again, kudos and credit to our broader finance team on the work they did to pull this off into get this in front of you.

您已強調了它可能發展的地方，我們將看看它如何發揮作用。但就目前而言，我們對此感到非常滿意。再次向我們更廣泛的財務團隊表示敬意，感謝他們為完成這項工作並呈現在你們面前所做的努力。

Thanks. That's very helpful. Maybe just going back to free cash flow growth this year. Could you go through some of the puts and takes? I think you have more accelerating and united spend ahead of you may be some integration costs that don't recur. I think there was a legal settlement for this year, but any other items we should be thinking about in the context of the double digit free cash flow guide.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。也許今年就會恢復自由現金流成長。您能否介紹一下其中的一些情況？我認為你們未來會有更多的加速和聯合支出，可能會有一些不會重複發生的整合成本。我認為今年已經達成了法律解決方案，但是我們應該在兩位數自由現金流指南的背景下考慮任何其他事項。

You did a great job of hitting the items, maybe just to round that all out. So obviously, the operating income growth, the working capital, I start with those two items. You hit the extraordinary items when you talked about the integration charges and that is winding down. But there still some impact from that.

你在擊打物品方面做得很好，也許只是為了讓一切更加完美。因此顯然，營業收入成長、營運資本，我從這兩項開始。當您談到整合費用時，您提到了一些非凡的項目，而這些費用正在逐漸減少。但這仍然會產生一些影響。

Of course, we don't have the legal expense charge that you talked about and there will still be our Aon United charges. Remember, when the team gave information on that, we said roughly about -- I was just about $410 million between '25 and '26 when you think about the overall $900 million that we have. All the key item might add to what you said is the in the PEA contribution, we committed to $300 million in 2025 in some free cash flow from that. And so I think about that as well. Put all those together is what gives us high confidence in the double digit growth in 2025.

當然，我們沒有您說的法律費用，而且仍然會有怡安聯合費用。記得，當團隊提供這方面資訊時，我們大致說過——考慮到我們總共有 9 億美元，我在 25 年至 26 年之間的收入約為 4.1 億美元。您所說的所有關鍵項目可能都會增加，即在 PEA 貢獻中，我們承諾在 2025 年從中獲得 3 億美元的自由現金流。所以我也想到了這一點。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們對 2025 年實現兩位數成長充滿信心。

And Charlie, remember, take a step back for a second. We began three by three, as you think about where we closed 2023. And we have essentially said we are committed to double-digit growth from 2023 to 2026 and beyond. But the three by three period was '24, '25 and '26.

查理，記住，先退後一步。我們從三三開始，想想我們在 2023 年結束時的情況。我們實際上已經表示，我們致力於在 2023 年至 2026 年及以後實現兩位數的成長。但是三乘三的時期是'24，'25和'26。

So as you sort of think about the puts and takes in the middle, if you want to make the math simple step back, look at the baseline from 2023, think about with double digit means, and we are absolutely committed to that outcome as we as we finished 2026 with momentum going into 2027 and beyond.

因此，當您考慮中間的投入和產出時，如果您想使數學運算變得簡單，請退後一步，看看 2023 年的基線，以兩位數的平均值思考，我們絕對致力於這一結果，因為我們在 2026 年結束時勢頭強勁，將持續到 2027 年及以後。

So it's an easy way to kind of step back and really understand where we are and how we think about free cash flow growth. And it absorbs all the puts and takes sort of in the middle to make that happen.

因此，這是一種簡單的方法，可以讓我們回顧並真正了解我們所處的位置以及我們如何看待自由現金流成長。並且它吸收了中間發生的所有投入和產出，以實現這一目標。

So be confident in that. And what Edmund is described is, what happened in 2024 just reinforced that competence as we think about double digit from '23 to '26 and then beyond.

所以請對此充滿信心。艾德蒙所描述的是，2024 年發生的事情強化了這種能力，因為我們想到了從 23 年到 26 年及以後的兩位數。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. And thanks for the comments on the construction and energy hires Edmund. Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you said 4% growth in specialty revenue-generating roles or something similar. I'm curious, how does that translate into the organic increase in talent for revenue-generating roles and overall risk capital? And if you could talk about how that compares to Aon history and sort of what you expect going forward.

嘿，謝謝。早安.並感謝您對 Edmund 的建築和能源僱用的評論。如果我錯了，請糾正我，我想您說的是專業創收角色成長 4% 或類似的東西。我很好奇，這如何轉化為創收崗位人才和整體創投的有機成長？您能否談談這與怡安的歷史相比有何不同，以及您對未來的期望。

Rob, I don't think we're going to end up going sort of into all those details, take a step back. What you take away from this is where we are investing in priority areas. And it is a pieces that Edmund highlighted around energy and construction is also in health and a number of other areas, very, very, very high priority areas for us.

羅布，我認為我們不會最終深入討論所有這些細節，退一步來說。您從中可以了解到我們正在重點投資的領域。埃德蒙強調，能源和建築領域也涉及衛生和許多其他領域，這些領域對我們來說都是非常非常優先的領域。

And we're going to continue to do that. You've seen them begin to come online, am I describing it would take some time here, 12 to 18 months, but they're coming online. But this isn't a one-time thing for us. What Edmund described as a machine and engine, which generate free cash flow. We're going to continue to allocate to priority hires and the frontline areas that matter for us.

我們將繼續這樣做。您已經看到它們開始上線，我描述的是這需要一些時間，12 到 18 個月，但它們正在上線。但這對我們來說不是一次性的事情。艾德蒙所描述的是一台機器和引擎，可以產生自由現金流。我們將繼續分配給優先僱用人員和對我們重要的前線地區。

And also remember, when somebody comes into Aon, this is not about just another person on the line, we want them to have content, capability, controls to actually amplify what they do as they come in. And that's truly what the analyzers give us in the service gives us an ABS gives us.

另外請記住，當有人加入怡安時，這不僅僅是一個電話線中的人，我們希望他們擁有內容、能力和控制力，以便在他們加入時真正擴大他們的工作範圍。這確實是分析儀在服務中為我們提供的東西，也是 ABS 為我們提供的東西。

So for us of this is a priority, Edmund highlighted, Eric emphasize that as well. It will continue to sort of reinforce it isn't fully online now, but you'll see it coming over the course of the next '25 and '26, '27 and beyond that. We're excited about it. It's still relatively small in the scheme of things, but it's not -- it's meaningful in terms of sort of the 4% addition to the sort of overall capability. And you see that by the way, in risk capital in reinsurance and in commercial risk and priority areas, you see it in health, you see it retirement and talent and the priority areas to. So it really is across the Board and we're going to continue to drive this on an ongoing basis.

因此對我們來說這是優先事項，艾德蒙強調，艾瑞克也強調了這一點。它將繼續在某種程度上強化它現在還沒有完全上線，但你會看到它在接下來的 25 年、26 年、27 年及以後的時期內出現。我們對此感到很興奮。從整體來看，這個數字仍然相對較小，但對於整體能力增加 4% 而言，這具有重要意義。順便說一句，您會看到，在再保險和商業風險及優先領域的風險資本中，您會看到它在健康、退休和人才等優先領域中。所以這確實是全面的，我們將繼續持續推動這項進程。

Thanks. That's very helpful.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。

And then as a follow-up, I wanted to switch to reinsurance. I know you guys called out the lower reinsurance rate impact in the quarter, but we're still able to strongly outgrow that. If I recall correctly, Aon is overweighted property reinsurance because of Benfield. Do you think reinsurance solutions can continue to grow it at similar levels as we get into the bigger revenue quarters that are kind of more driven by treaty renewals?

然後作為後續行動，我想轉換到再保險。我知道你們指出了本季較低的再保險費率的影響，但我們仍然能夠強勁地擺脫這一影響。如果我沒記錯的話，怡安因為 Benfield 而增持了財產再保險。您是否認為，隨著我們進入受條約續簽驅動的更大收入季度，再保險解決方案可以繼續維持類似的成長水準？

Look, I'd say certainly our ability to grow globally as it's truly a global business, is something that team has been very focused on certainly for the last five years that we continue to be optimistic about the future of reinsurance as we go into 2025, both on the property cap space, as you imagine. But also in what we do for casualty, and specialty, and facultative and strategy and technology has really become a fully built portfolio capability not just property cap.

看，我想說，由於這確實是一個全球性業務，我們在全球範圍內發展的能力當然是團隊在過去五年中一直非常關注的事情，我們對進入 2025 年的再保險的未來繼續持樂觀態度，無論是在財產上限領域，正如您所想像的那樣。而且，我們在意外險、特殊險、兼職險、策略和技術方面所做的工作已經真正形成了完整的投資組合能力，而不僅僅是財產上限。

So you should think about it a broader offerings, have broader capabilities than just property catastrophe. Certainly there is a market impact, as you alluded to and filed with that, I would just say that you say, clients reacting to declining market different ways.

因此，您應該考慮提供更廣泛的服務，並擁有比財產災難更廣泛的能力。當然，市場會受到影響，正如您所暗示和提出的，我只想說，客戶對市場下滑的反應不同。

Their ability to do buydowns some aggregate covers, sideways covers, top-up programs where they may have pulled back a bit based on pricing. So it's a pretty dynamic market and clients to optimize their portfolios as they look at the amount of spend and they make re invest. But we're excited about as on board.

他們有能力進行一些總體覆蓋、橫向覆蓋和補充計劃，這些計劃可能已經根據定價有所回落。因此，這是一個相當活躍的市場，客戶可以根據支出金額來優化他們的投資組合併進行再投資。但我們對於加入感到很興奮。

And Rob only one point to add, which is embedded in our plan, in our guidance that we gave our these dynamics that Eric is discussing with the weighting of the portfolio and what happens on the rate and exposure outside associated with it. So with all of that in mind, we feel very confident in the mid-single digit or greater organic revenue growth as we're I'd leave you on that point.

Rob 只想補充一點，這已經融入我們的計劃中，在我們的指導下，我們給出了 Eric 正在討論的這些動態，包括投資組合的權重，以及與之相關的利率和外部風險敞口會發生什麼。所以考慮到所有這些，我們對中等個位數或更高的有機收入成長非常有信心，我會在這一點上留給你。

Great. Thanks for all the color.

偉大的。感謝所有的色彩。

Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉回給格雷格‧凱斯 (Greg Case)，請他作結束語。

Just wanted to thank everyone for joining us on the call today. We appreciate it. And look forward to next quarter.

我只想感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我們對此表示感謝。並期待下個季度。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。