亞馬遜 (AMZN) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q4 2019 Financial Results Teleconference.

大家好，歡迎來到 Amazon.com 2019 年第四季度財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）今天的電話正在錄音。

For opening remarks, I will be turning the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Shelly Kay Pfeiffer.

對於開場白，我將把電話轉給投資者關係總監 Shelly Kay Pfeiffer。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hello, and welcome to our Q4 2019 financial results conference call.

您好，歡迎參加我們的 2019 年第四季度財務業績電話會議。

Joining us today to answer your questions are Brian Olsavsky, our CFO; and Dave Fildes, Director of Investor Relations.

今天加入我們回答您的問題的是我們的首席財務官 Brian Olsavsky；和投資者關係總監 Dave Fildes。

As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter.

在您收聽今天的電話會議時，我們鼓勵您將我們的新聞稿放在您面前，其中包括我們的財務業績以及本季度的指標和評論。

Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2018.

請注意，除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議中的所有比較都將與我們 2018 年可比期間的結果相反。

Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, January 30, 2020, only and will include forward-looking statements.

我們對您問題的評論和回复僅反映了管理層截至今天（2020 年 1 月 30 日）的觀點，並將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially.

實際結果可能大不相同。

Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

有關可能影響我們財務業績的因素的其他信息包含在今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格年度報告和後續文件。

During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.

在這次電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。

In our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website, you will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

在我們的新聞稿、本網絡廣播隨附的幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，每一個都發佈在我們的 IR 網站上，您會發現有關這些非 GAAP 措施的更多披露，包括這些措施與可比較的 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions.

我們的指導包含了我們迄今為止看到的訂單趨勢以及我們今天認為是適當的假設。

Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and customer spending, world events, the rate of growth of the Internet, online commerce and cloud services and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC.

我們的結果本質上是不可預測的，並可能受到許多因素的重大影響，包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和客戶支出的變化、世界事件、互聯網、在線商務和雲服務的增長率以及各種因素在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有詳細說明。

Our guidance also assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, investments, restructurings or legal settlements.

除其他外，我們的指導還假設我們不會完成任何額外的業務收購、投資、重組或法律和解。

It's not possible to accurately predict demand for our goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance.

無法準確預測對我們商品和服務的需求，因此，我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導存在重大差異。

With that, we'll move to Q&A.

有了這個，我們將進入問答環節。

Operator, please remind our listeners how to initiate a question.

接線員，請提醒我們的聽眾如何發起提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛集團的 Heath Terry。

Great.

偉大的。

Really appreciate this.

真的很感激這一點。

Just on the AWS business, as you look sort of at the strength that you saw in the quarter, particularly represented by the amount of dollars added quarter-over-quarter, is there anything in particular that you would call out either in terms of specific types of workloads, regions, specific customer types that you felt like drove the strength, particularly relative to the directional -- direction of growth that we were seeing in the earlier parts of the year?

就 AWS 業務而言，當您看到您在本季度看到的實力時，特別是由季度環比增加的美元數量所代表的時候，您是否會在具體方面提出任何特別的要求？工作負載類型、地區、特定客戶類型，你覺得推動了力量，特別是相對於方向——我們在今年早些時候看到的增長方向？

No, I would not isolate it to any one set of customers or products.

不，我不會將它隔離到任何一組客戶或產品。

I think it's been pretty broad-based.

我認為它的基礎非常廣泛。

And it's kind of the culmination of a lot of work on adding new products and features, adding to our sales and marketing teams and having better penetration in enterprise customers and hitting a lot of very different industries.

這是在添加新產品和功能、增加我們的銷售和營銷團隊、更好地滲透到企業客戶和影響許多不同行業方面所做的大量工作的結果。

So I think that's what you're seeing.

所以我認為這就是你所看到的。

We feel that our product set is -- leads the market.

我們覺得我們的產品系列是——引領市場。

And we add to it at a quicker pace than our competition, so actually, the gap on capacity and features is growing as we speak.

而且我們以比我們的競爭對手更快的速度添加它，所以實際上，在我們說話的時候，容量和功能上的差距正在擴大。

We also think that there's a real network effect when you use AWS with the millions of active customers and tens of thousands of global partners.

我們還認為，當您與數百萬活躍客戶和數以萬計的全球合作夥伴一起使用 AWS 時，會產生真正的網絡效應。

And we continue to expand.

我們繼續擴大。

We're now in 69 availability zones across 22 geographic regions.

我們現在位於 22 個地理區域的 69 個可用區。

So I think it's the combination of increased sales support, more and better products that hit customers' needs and also the geographic expansion is what you're seeing.

所以我認為這是增加銷售支持、滿足客戶需求的更多更好的產品以及地理擴張的結合，這就是你所看到的。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Sebastian with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Sebastian 和 Robert W. Baird。

Was just hoping you guys could disaggregate a bit the strength in seller services, how much of that was third-party marketplace commission specifically?

只是希望你們能分解一下賣家服務的實力，其中有多少是第三方市場佣金？

And are you seeing more of an uptick in some of the other content and services?

您是否看到其他一些內容和服務的增加更多？

On seller services, I would say it was just a very strong quarter, if that's what you're referring to, 31% growth in revenue.

在賣家服務方面，我想說這只是一個非常強勁的季度，如果這就是你所指的，收入增長了 31%。

It was strong on a unit basis.

它在單位基礎上很強大。

And as you said, there's probably additional strength in FBA, which has higher fee set than MFN does.

正如你所說，FBA 可能有額外的優勢，它的費用設定高於 MFN。

So -- but in general, if you step away, I think what you're seeing is more and more participation of third-party sellers in our one-day delivery program as we move through the year.

所以——但總的來說，如果你離開，我認為你會看到隨著我們這一年的到來，越來越多的第三方賣家參與了我們的一日送達計劃。

That was particularly strong in Q4, and I think you'll see that more as we move into 2020.

這在第四季度尤為強勁，我認為隨著我們進入 2020 年，你會看到更多。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Post with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

Just wondering if you could go high level what drove upside to your guidance on revenue in the quarter on the retail side.

只是想知道您是否可以提高本季度零售方面收入指導的上升水平。

Anything there that you'd really call out?

那裡有什麼你真的想大聲說出來的嗎？

And then on the AWS investments, obviously, you just talked about investments starting in 3Q.

然後關於 AWS 投資，顯然，您剛剛談到了從第三季度開始的投資。

Where are you in that investment?

你在哪裡投資？

Your margins are still below peak.

你的利潤仍然低於峰值。

Where are you kind of in that investment cycle?

你在那個投資週期中處於什麼位置？

Sure.

當然。

Well, as I said, on revenue, we came in at $87.4 billion, which exceeded the high end of our range of $86.5 billion.

好吧，正如我所說，在收入方面，我們的收入為 874 億美元，超過了我們 865 億美元範圍的高端。

$400 million of -- roughly $400 million of that was due to foreign exchange.

其中 4 億美元——其中大約 4 億美元來自外匯。

But what we saw was essentially very strong holiday performance from the middle of November on.

但從 11 月中旬開始，我們所看到的基本上是非常強勁的假期表現。

We also had a very big uptick in response to the one-day availability that's been building through the year.

由於一年來一直在建立的單日可用性，我們也有了很大的增長。

I think Prime has been very strong.

我認為Prime一直非常強大。

We mentioned that we have more than 150 million paid Prime members globally now.

我們提到我們現在在全球擁有超過 1.5 億付費 Prime 會員。

And we mentioned that more people joined Prime in Q4 than any other quarter before.

我們提到，在第四季度加入 Prime 的人數比之前任何一個季度都要多。

So a lot of good momentum there built up on the aggregation of benefits that we continue to add to the Prime program, most recently the one-day -- expansion of one-day shipping.

因此，許多良好的勢頭建立在我們繼續添加到 Prime 計劃中的綜合福利之上，最近的一天是一日送貨的擴展。

On AWS, where are we in the cycle?

在 AWS 上，我們處於循環的哪個位置？

I talked more in 2018, when the margins in AWS were closer to 30%, about the efficiency of infrastructure spend and -- versus prior years.

在 2018 年，當 AWS 的利潤率接近 30% 時，我更多地談到了基礎設施支出的效率以及——與前幾年相比。

So we continue to -- since that point, we've continued to add infrastructure capability and -- to support our global expansion as well.

因此，我們繼續——從那時起，我們繼續增加基礎設施能力——也支持我們的全球擴張。

But what you're seeing probably more in the margins is the expansion of our sales and marketing effort at some of those costs as well as price decreases and longer-term contracts that we've signed with some of our customers.

但是，您在利潤中看到的可能更多的是我們以其中一些成本擴大銷售和營銷工作，以及我們與一些客戶簽署的價格下降和長期合同。

You notice on our balance sheet that our future commitments on the multiyear deals now stands at $30 billion at year-end, and that's up 54% year-over-year.

您在我們的資產負債表上註意到，我們對多年期交易的未來承諾在年底達到 300 億美元，同比增長 54%。

So there's a lot of good momentum on the enterprise side as well.

因此，企業方面也有很多良好的勢頭。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Helfstein 與 Oppenheimer & Co. 的對話。

Just to ask about AWS again.

只是再次詢問AWS。

The investors have become, I guess, recently concerned just about, again, the slowing AWS revenue and margin and whether it's a function of increased competition.

我猜，投資者最近再次擔心 AWS 收入和利潤率的放緩，以及這是否是競爭加劇的結果。

So maybe just talk about how you're reacting.

所以也許只是談談你的反應。

You did talk about spending on sales and price cuts.

你確實談到了銷售和降價支出。

But just any more you can talk about the competitive environment.

但是，您可以再談論競爭環境。

Sure.

當然。

I would probably argue a bit with the growth comments.

我可能會與增長評論有點爭論。

As we see it here, we grew from a $30 billion revenue run rate at the end of 2018 to a $40 billion revenue run rate at the end of 2019.

正如我們在這裡看到的那樣，我們的收入運行率從 2018 年底的 300 億美元增長到 2019 年底的 400 億美元。

So we continue to be happy with our top line growth.

因此，我們繼續對我們的收入增長感到滿意。

The -- in dollar terms as opposed to percentages, we had a larger dollar increase in revenue, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.

- 以美元計算，而不是百分比，我們的收入同比和環比都有較大的美元增長。

So we're very happy with the progress of the revenue and our adoption and acceptance by customers.

因此，我們對收入的進展以及客戶對我們的採用和接受感到非常滿意。

As far as competitive set is concerned, we -- again, we think that we have -- start with a very big lead in this space because of our many years of investment, not only in capacity but also in services and features that we provide to customers.

就競爭組合而言，由於我們多年的投資，不僅在容量上，而且在我們提供的服務和功能方面，我們 - 再次，我們認為我們已經 - 在這個領域取得了很大的領先優勢給客戶。

We've learned from customers.

我們從客戶那裡學到了東西。

We just had a great re:Invent conference in December, where all of our -- it was a great aggregation of partners and customers and developers.

我們剛剛在 12 月舉行了一場精彩的 re:Invent 會議，我們所有的人 - 這是合作夥伴、客戶和開發人員的一次盛會。

And at those events, we not only get to present our new products, and there were over 100 that were launched in December, but we also get to hear customer issues and help -- that helps sign our -- educate our forward road map.

在這些活動中，我們不僅可以展示我們的新產品，並且在 12 月推出了 100 多種新產品，而且我們還可以聽到客戶的問題和幫助——這有助於簽署我們的——教育我們的前進路線圖。

So it's a great shared learning.

所以這是一個很棒的共享學習。

I think customers react to it.

我認為客戶會對此做出反應。

Customers will be at different stages of their adoption curve.

客戶將處於採用曲線的不同階段。

There's always different phases: first, moving to the cloud, then organizing on the cloud and then growing further.

總是有不同的階段：首先，遷移到雲，然後在雲上組織，然後進一步發展。

So there's a lot of movement.

所以有很大的動靜。

I said that repeatedly, I think, in the setting that any quarter -- quarter-to-quarter movement is going to be a little bumpy.

我反复說過，我認為，在任何一個季度 - 每季度的運動都會有點顛簸的情況下。

But generally, what you're seeing is the convergence of a lot of investment, a lot of operational efficiency and a lot of innovation on behalf of customers.

但總的來說，您所看到的是代表客戶的大量投資、大量運營效率和大量創新的融合。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Ju with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Stephen Ju。

I wanted to switch it up a little bit.

我想把它調高一點。

I guess you guys called this out in your press release, but I'm wondering if you could talk about your efforts to get the SMBs and the micro SMBs online in India.

我想你們在新聞稿中提到了這一點，但我想知道你們是否可以談談你們為讓印度的中小企業和微型中小企業上線所做的努力。

What exactly is involved from a practical perspective?

從實踐的角度來看，究竟涉及什麼？

Do you need to have door-to-door sales folks?

你需要有上門推銷員嗎？

And what can you do to reduce friction between logistics payments and some of the other factors there?

您可以做些什麼來減少物流支付與其他一些因素之間的摩擦？

And second, what are these SMBs selling?

其次，這些中小企業在賣什麼？

Is it like long-tail inventory?

像長尾庫存嗎？

Is it merchandise that you can get to exports to global buyer base?

您可以將商品出口到全球買家群嗎？

And do you think this could be content that could be exclusive to Amazon?

你認為這可能是亞馬遜獨有的內容嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Stephen, this is Dave.

斯蒂芬，這是戴夫。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

As you said, and I think we mentioned this in the release, we're definitely continuing to improve the experience in India for customers and sellers.

正如你所說，我認為我們在發布中提到了這一點，我們肯定會繼續改善印度客戶和賣家的體驗。

Excited by some of the response we've seen.

對我們看到的一些反應感到興奮。

We are continuing to invest meaningfully in digitizing those, say, MSMBs, micro, small and medium-sized businesses.

我們將繼續在數字化這些方面進行有意義的投資，例如 MSMB、微型、中小型企業。

We did pledge to invest $1 billion to help digitize traders and those micro and small businesses across India.

我們確實承諾投資 10 億美元，幫助印度各地的貿易商和小微企業實現數字化。

And we've got a goal of bringing more than 10 million online by 2025.

我們的目標是到 2025 年讓超過 1000 萬人上網。

So this billion dollar investment will help to enable $10 billion in cumulative Indian exports by 2025.

因此，這項十億美元的投資將有助於到 2025 年實現 100 億美元的印度累計出口。

A lot of different facets to those types of investments.

這些類型的投資有很多不同的方面。

I won't go into too much for specifics.

具體細節我就不多說了。

But a lot of work being done there.

但是那裡正在做很多工作。

We're also focused on job growth, job creation over there.

我們還專注於就業增長，在那裡創造就業機會。

Since we launched over in India in 2013, we've created over 700,000 direct and indirect jobs.

自 2013 年在印度推出以來，我們已經創造了超過 700,000 個直接和間接工作崗位。

So -- we also recently announced plans to create an additional 1 million jobs in India by 2025.

所以——我們最近還宣布了到 2025 年在印度再創造 100 萬個工作崗位的計劃。

So a lot of, I think, innovation, ideas, investment.

所以很多，我認為，創新，想法，投資。

That team over there continues to do a great job locally of taking a lot of the tenets that we've had at Amazon around innovation building and really run with that over there and done a great job of coming up with some interesting and new services and features that I think are specific to that region.

那邊的那個團隊繼續在當地做得很好，採納了我們在亞馬遜圍繞創新建設的許多原則，並在那邊真正遵循了這些原則，並在提出一些有趣的新服務方面做得很好，並且我認為特定於該地區的功能。

And hopefully, as we continue to do that, we'll keep identifying areas over in India and tool sets and features over in India that we can bring back to other regions to help benefit other sellers and the other websites more broadly.

希望隨著我們繼續這樣做，我們將繼續確定印度的區域以及印度的工具集和功能，我們可以將它們帶回其他地區，以幫助其他賣家和其他網站更廣泛地受益。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。

I have 2. Just the first one, Brian, I think on one of the media interviews, you talked about how you're becoming more efficient with one-day and you continue -- with next-day delivery and continue to do so and talked about a billion dollars of cost in that current quarter.

我有 2 個。只是第一個，布賴恩，我認為在一次媒體採訪中，你談到瞭如何通過一日交付變得更有效率，然後你繼續 - 次日交付並繼續這樣做，並且談到當前季度的 10 億美元成本。

Maybe just sort of talk to us about some of the largest qualitative fix in variable cost sort of still associated with one-day and the processes and the opportunities for efficiency to really get that number down as we go throughout 2020.

也許只是與我們談論一些最大的可變成本定性解決方案，這種解決方案仍然與一天有關，以及在整個 2020 年真正降低該數字的過程和效率機會。

And then maybe any specific product categories or good categories where you've seen an acceleration in demand from one-day that you'd call out?

然後可能是任何特定的產品類別或好的類別，您已經看到需求從一天開始加速，您會呼籲？

Sure.

當然。

Let me make sure the numbers are understood.

讓我確保理解這些數字。

We had talked about, last year, about an initial step-up in cost of close to $800 million in the second quarter.

去年，我們曾討論過在第二季度最初增加近 8 億美元的成本。

We -- that carried into Q3, slightly higher in Q3.

我們 - 進入第三季度，第三季度略高。

And then in Q4, last time that we were on this call, I mentioned that we estimated Q4 would be $1.5 billion penalty.

然後在第四季度，我們上次參加電話會議時，我提到我們估計第四季度將被罰款 15 億美元。

Was slightly under that despite the higher volumes and revenue growth than was in our guidance.

儘管銷量和收入增長高於我們的指引，但仍略低於這一水平。

And looking ahead to Q1, we estimate approximately $1 billion of additional costs year-over-year.

展望第一季度，我們估計每年將增加約 10 億美元的成本。

And again in Q2, we'll start to lap this.

再次在第二季度，我們將開始討論這個問題。

And that doesn't mean the delta goes to 0. It means that there'll be a step-up as we grow and expand on a volume basis, and then we'll see where our rates are on actually delivering and fulfilling one-day.

這並不意味著增量變為 0。這意味著隨著我們在數量上的增長和擴張，將會有一個提升，然後我們將看到我們的費率在實際交付和履行一個方面的位置——天。

So I will keep you posted on our results and guide in the future as to where we see those costs going.

因此，我將隨時向您發布我們的結果，並在未來指導我們看到這些成本的去向。

If you look at the efficiency or the -- first, the cost, they generally fall into a few buckets.

如果您查看效率或 - 首先是成本，它們通常分為幾類。

It's obviously transportation where you're building out new transportation modes, you're adding new deliveries.

很明顯，你正在建立新的交通方式，增加新的交付。

Partners are adding new routes.

合作夥伴正在添加新路線。

Many times, they start with subscale volumes, and you build them out, you get more efficient, you get more volume, more package density.

很多時候，它們從小體積開始，然後你將它們構建出來，你會變得更有效率，你會得到更多的體積，更高的包裝密度。

And that creates efficiency.

這創造了效率。

When we started this, again, Q2 of last year, we also had an abrupt change to our fulfillment network in that when it's tuned for two-day delivery on the most part and you move to one-day, in a lot of cases, it's advantageous from a cost and transportation standpoint to have that inventory closer to the customer.

當我們再次在去年第二季度開始這項工作時，我們的履行網絡也發生了突然變化，因為大部分時間都調整為兩天送達，而在很多情況下，您改為一天送達，從成本和運輸的角度來看，讓庫存更靠近客戶是有利的。

So we've -- last year, we're in the middle of that transition.

所以我們 - 去年，我們正處於過渡的中間。

We still are as we shift inventory to be more local, it will enable local deliveries to hit shorter cutoff times.

當我們將庫存轉移到更本地化時，我們仍然如此，這將使本地交付能夠達到更短的截止時間。

So that will continue to become more efficient.

所以這將繼續變得更有效率。

We do see a -- we will have to scale our fulfillment center network further.

我們確實看到了——我們將不得不進一步擴展我們的履行中心網絡。

We grew the square footage for fulfillment and transportation by 15% each of the last 2 years.

在過去的 2 年中，我們的履約和運輸面積每年增長 15%。

And we look ahead and see a step-up in that this year as we start to build more capacity for the one-day.

隨著我們開始為一日遊建立更多容量，我們展望未來並看到今年的進步。

I haven't guided beyond Q1, but that's certainly something that will step up.

我沒有超過第一季度的指導，但這肯定會加強。

But we get efficiencies as we learn and grow and handle more one-day volume.

但是，隨著我們學習和成長並處理更多的一日交易量，我們會提高效率。

The third area is foregone ship revenue, just simply because we're having free shipment and no longer charging for it.

第三個方面是失去的運輸收入，僅僅是因為我們可以免費運輸，不再收費。

That unfortunately doesn't leverage, but it -- we do start to lap it after a while.

不幸的是，這並沒有發揮作用，但它 - 我們確實開始在一段時間後開始使用它。

So I would say that just as we've had other shocks to our warehouse system over the years from going to -- from media to almost every product you can imagine to having a cycle of increased third-party presence in the FBA program now to one-day, we have a history here where we can look for opportunities to be more efficient and lower the -- any cost penalties as we move forward.

所以我想說，就像我們的倉庫系統多年來受到其他衝擊一樣，從媒體到幾乎所有你能想像到的產品，再到現在在 FBA 計劃中增加第三方存在的周期，再到有一天，我們在這裡有一段歷史，我們可以在其中尋找機會來提高效率並降低我們前進的任何成本懲罰。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Dan Salmon。

Just to follow up on one-day shipping.

只是為了跟進一日發貨。

You noted that you begin to lap the beginning of the initiative here in the second quarter, and that, naturally, costs can flow up with volumes.

您注意到您在第二季度開始在這裡開始實施該計劃，而且成本自然會隨著數量的增加而增加。

But just to be clear with you, is the idea here is we anniversary at that sort of incremental expansion of one-day shipping, either regionally or certain SKUs is functionally finished?

但是，請您澄清一下，這裡的想法是我們在一日發貨的那種增量擴展中的周年紀念日，無論是區域性的還是某些 SKU 功能性完成？

I just want to make sure I understand that properly.

我只是想確保我正確理解了這一點。

And then just -- we can see the other number reported.

然後——我們可以看到報告的另一個數字。

Just any color within there on the advertising business.

廣告業務中的任何顏色。

And in particular, would love to hear an update just a bit on some of your brand initiatives there.

特別是，很想听聽您在那裡的一些品牌計劃的更新。

I know that probably wasn't the focus in the holiday season, but it seems to be an important growing part.

我知道這可能不是假期的重點，但它似乎是一個重要的增長部分。

Sure.

當然。

Let me start on the one-day.

讓我從一天開始。

So yes, we do see expansion of the one-day program as we move through the year.

所以，是的，隨著我們一年的發展，我們確實看到了一日計劃的擴展。

We've been expanding since we started this effort in Q2 of last year.

自去年第二季度開始這項工作以來，我們一直在擴展。

Expansion means additional cities, additional routes, additional ZIP codes.

擴張意味著更多的城市、更多的路線、更多的郵政編碼。

But more -- I think what you'll see more in 2020 is also an -- more effort internationally, more costs internationally.

但是更多——我認為你會在 2020 年看到更多的是——更多的國際努力，更多的國際成本。

We have greatly improved our selection of one-day in -- particularly in Europe and Japan.

我們極大地改進了我們對一日遊的選擇——尤其是在歐洲和日本。

We started with higher one-day percentage of our shipments in those geographies, but we do have to take steps and are taking steps to increase that.

我們開始時在這些地區的發貨量中佔較高的一天百分比，但我們確實必須採取措施，並且正在採取措施來增加這一比例。

And we expect that to be -- start to be a little more balanced cost globally as we move into 2020.

我們預計，隨著我們進入 2020 年，全球成本將開始更加平衡。

Yes.

是的。

Dan, in terms of your question around brands.

丹，就你關於品牌的問題而言。

We're focused on certainly brands as an advertising customer set and a lot of focus on providing the products and tools that are going to help customers and really inspire them.

我們專注於作為廣告客戶群體的品牌，並且非常注重提供能夠幫助客戶並真正激勵他們的產品和工具。

So things that we're really excited about, stores, so a brand can customize and curate a multipage store.

所以我們真正興奮的是商店，所以品牌可以定制和策劃一個多頁商店。

It allows them to better tell customers who they are and share their story.

它使他們能夠更好地告訴客戶他們是誰並分享他們的故事。

So we can help deepen the brand engagement and the customer loyalty through that type of option.

因此，我們可以通過這種選擇來幫助加深品牌參與度和客戶忠誠度。

Some other things like posts, which helps customers discover products and brands.

其他一些東西，比如帖子，它可以幫助客戶發現產品和品牌。

And it's through a curated feed that features the brand's lifestyle content, and it's on a mobile detail page.

它是通過一個以品牌生活方式內容為特色的精選提要，它位於移動詳細信息頁面上。

And there's international expansion in some other areas.

在其他一些領域也有國際擴張。

I think broadly, with advertising, so much of this is about having -- developing great relationships with these advertisers because I think they appreciate the fidelity we can provide around shopping outcomes.

從廣義上講，我認為，對於廣告來說，其中很大一部分是為了與這些廣告商建立良好的關係，因為我認為他們欣賞我們可以在購物結果方面提供的保真度。

We're uniquely positioned to do this, given our retail business.

鑑於我們的零售業務，我們在這方面處於獨特的地位。

On the advertising business -- or rather, I should say, other revenue, that line item grew about 41% year-over-year.

在廣告業務——或者更確切地說，其他收入方面，該項目同比增長約 41%。

Advertising is the biggest piece of that.

廣告是其中最大的一部分。

That line item is growing at about the same rate.

該訂單項的增長速度大致相同。

Advertising revenue is, as a subset, been growing at about the same rate year-over-year in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter.

作為一個子集，第四季度廣告收入的同比增長速度與第三季度大致相同。

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe a 2-part question on AWS, if I can.

如果可以的話，也許是關於 AWS 的兩部分問題。

You called out the depreciation change with respect to AWS going forward.

您提出了關於 AWS 未來的折舊變化。

Just wanted to better understand some of the decisions that were made on useful life that drove that decision and how to think about that from a modeling perspective going forward.

只是想更好地理解一些關於使用壽命的決定，這些決定推動了這個決定，以及如何從建模的角度來思考這個問題。

And then the second part would be, what does that mean in terms of the way you're thinking about forward CapEx cycles for the AWS business, if you're assuming useful life is moving out maybe than prior assumptions?

然後第二部分是，如果您假設使用壽命可能比之前的假設延長，那麼就您考慮 AWS 業務的未來資本支出週期的方式而言，這意味著什麼？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks for bringing that up.

謝謝你提出來。

So we, as a practice, monitor and review the useful life of our depreciable assets on a regular basis to make sure that our financial statements reflect our best estimate of how long the assets are going to be used in operations.

因此，作為慣例，我們會定期監控和審查我們的可折舊資產的使用壽命，以確保我們的財務報表反映我們對資產將在運營中使用多長時間的最佳估計。

In Q4, and we've been looking at it in both the FCs, fulfillment centers, and also AWS annually.

在第四季度，我們每年都在 FC、履行中心和 AWS 中對其進行研究。

As we looked in Q4 of 2019, we believe it's -- there's enough trend now to show that the useful life is exceeding 4 years.

正如我們在 2019 年第四季度所看到的那樣，我們相信它 - 現在有足夠的趨勢表明使用壽命超過 4 年。

We have been -- for our servers, and we had been depreciating them over 3 years.

我們一直 - 對於我們的服務器，我們已經在 3 年多的時間裡貶值了它們。

So we are going to start depreciating them on a 4-year basis.

因此，我們將開始以 4 年為基礎對其進行折舊。

It doesn't unwind any depreciation that's already been booked.

它不會解除任何已經預訂的折舊。

It just takes the asset from its current status and extends the depreciation period, and then new assets will be put into play -- will extend out for 4 years instead of 3, and we'll continue to revisit this.

它只是將資產從其現狀中取出並延長折舊期，然後將新資產投入使用-將延長4年而不是3年，我們將繼續重新審視這一點。

I do want to point out it's not just an accounting-related change.

我確實想指出，這不僅僅是與會計相關的變化。

It's rather a reflection of the work that we've done to make our server capacity last longer.

這反映了我們為延長服務器容量所做的工作。

We've been operating at scale for over 13 years in this business, and we continue to refine our software to run more efficiently on the hardware.

我們在這項業務中已經大規模運營超過 13 年，並且我們將繼續改進我們的軟件以更有效地在硬件上運行。

It then lowers stress and extends the useful life both through the servers that we use in the AWS business and also the service that we use to support our own Amazon businesses.

然後，它通過我們在 AWS 業務中使用的服務器以及我們用於支持我們自己的亞馬遜業務的服務來降低壓力並延長使用壽命。

So -- and despite that, we give AWS customers and actually, because of this, AWS customers continue to get access to the latest technologies more quickly than ever before.

所以——儘管如此，我們為 AWS 客戶提供服務，實際上，正因為如此，AWS 客戶繼續以比以往任何時候都更快的速度訪問最新技術。

So we are essentially reflecting the fact that we have gotten better at extending the useful life here and now building that into our financials moving forward.

因此，我們基本上反映了這樣一個事實，即我們在延長使用壽命方面做得更好，現在將其融入我們的財務狀況。

Yes, you're right, it should also impact our need and our timing of capital.

是的，你是對的，它也應該影響我們的需求和我們的資本時機。

I would say that it's also been part of the reason that we've been able to keep capital relatively in check the last 2 years in the infrastructure area.

我想說，這也是過去兩年我們在基礎設施領域能夠相對控制資本的部分原因。

But it's $800 -- excuse me, $800 million lower depreciation expense in the quarter, and it will be consistent.

但它是 800 美元——對不起，本季度折舊費用減少了 8 億美元，而且將是一致的。

It will change quarter-to-quarter; we will update you.

它將按季度變化；我們會更新你。

But as you can see in our financial statements, it's about $2.3 billion impact in 2020.

但正如您在我們的財務報表中看到的那樣，它對 2020 年的影響約為 23 億美元。

Yes.

是的。

And just kind of on the modeling point too, on that, the $800 million is in Q1.

也只是在建模方面，8 億美元在第一季度。

We do think that the -- for that accounting impact effectively, we expect that, that amount will decrease as we go through the year.

我們確實認為 - 對於有效的會計影響，我們預計隨著我們這一年的發展，這一數額將減少。

And it's tech infrastructure assets.

它是技術基礎設施資產。

So it's -- I should say the servers are tech infrastructure assets.

所以它 - 我應該說服務器是技術基礎設施資產。

So when you think about segments, the majority of these relate to the AWS segment.

因此，當您考慮細分時，其中大部分都與 AWS 細分相關。

Our next question comes from the line of Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Ron Josey。

Brian, I just want to ask a little bit more about the holiday season, given the beat on the top line and see if there's any way to quantify maybe the impact from the shortened holiday shopping season.

布賴恩，我只想問更多關於假日季節的信息，考慮到頂線的節拍，看看是否有任何方法可以量化縮短的假日購物季可能帶來的影響。

I mean it doesn't seem like much, just given the better results in online sales and retail third-party seller services.

我的意思是它看起來並不多，只是考慮到在線銷售和零售第三方賣家服務的更好結果。

But is there any way to think about the 6 less days?

但是有什麼方法可以考慮這 6 天的減少嗎？

And then also, you mentioned last quarter an impact from the Japanese consumption tax.

然後，您還提到了上個季度日本消費稅的影響。

Any sort of impact?

有什麼影響嗎？

Did that go according to plan?

這是否按計劃進行？

Or any thoughts there would be helpful.

或者有任何想法會有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

First of all, on the -- there were 2 items we discussed last quarter with the Japan consumption tax raising from 8% to 10% effective October 1. The net result was a pull forward of some purchases by Japanese customers into Q3 and also some negative elasticity effects post October 1. The other item was Diwali timing, the Indian holiday, which has a very large swing factor on international revenues, is it moved more into the third quarter this year versus -- in 2019 versus 2018.

首先，我們在上個季度討論了兩個項目，日本消費稅從 10 月 1 日起從 8% 提高到 10%。最終結果是日本客戶的一些購買提前到了第三季度，還有一些10 月 1 日之後的負面彈性效應。另一個項目是排燈節時間，印度假期對國際收入的影響非常大，與 2019 年與 2018 年相比，今年第三季度的影響更大。

So it was a help to Q3 and a penalty to Q4.

所以這是對 Q3 的幫助和對 Q4 的懲罰。

Those 2 items impacted the Q4 growth rate negatively by about 300 basis points.

這兩項對第四季度的增長率產生了約 300 個基點的負面影響。

That was our estimate, and we believe that was the actual outcome.

這是我們的估計，我們相信這是實際結果。

On the international.

在國際上。

On the international segment, excuse me, yes.

在國際部分，對不起，是的。

The -- sorry, the first question was, oh, the holiday season.

- 抱歉，第一個問題是，哦，假期。

Yes.

是的。

We don't see that as a factor actually.

我們實際上並不認為這是一個因素。

And I mentioned that last call as it wasn't incorporated into our guidance in a negative fashion.

我提到了最後一個電話，因為它沒有以負面的方式納入我們的指導。

The way we look at it and the way we believe it works, at least in our business, is that customers will have a holiday budget, and they will spend it between generally the middle of November.

我們看待它的方式以及我們認為它運作的方式，至少在我們的業務中，是客戶將有一個假期預算，他們通常會在 11 月中旬之間花費。

It's creeping up to the early part of November through the holiday season.

通過假期，它一直蔓延到 11 月初。

And we do see obviously spikes in Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and we also see relative tick-up in trends as we get closer to the holiday and before the shipping threshold cutoff.

我們確實看到黑色星期五和網絡星期一明顯飆升，而且隨著我們接近假期和運輸門檻截止之前，我們還看到趨勢相對上升。

So there's a polarization of -- tends to be a polarization to early shipping -- or excuse me, early purchase and late purchases.

所以存在兩極分化——往往是早期發貨的兩極分化——或者對不起，早期購買和延遲購買。

As far as the 6 days sort of time period between Thanksgiving and the Christmas holiday, we don't see an impact on that.

就感恩節和聖誕節假期之間的 6 天時間段而言，我們認為這不會受到影響。

Perhaps it's a bigger issue for stores and foot traffic, but we don't notice it in our business.

也許這對商店和人流量來說是一個更大的問題，但我們在我們的業務中沒有註意到它。

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

I just want to shift gears to grocery.

我只是想換檔去雜貨店。

I know you added AmazonFresh into Prime, kind of removing the previous $14.99 a month component there and putting it into Prime, and you talked about the 2,000 U.S. cities and towns with 2-hour delivery.

我知道您將 AmazonFresh 添加到 Prime 中，將之前每月 14.99 美元的組件移除並放入 Prime 中，您談到了 2,000 個美國城鎮的 2 小時交貨。

Can you just talk about what the early impact there is of bundling kind of Fresh into Prime at this point and then just how you're thinking about your grocery strategy as you're positioned now?

您能否談談此時將 Fresh 捆綁到 Prime 中的早期影響，以及您現在如何考慮您的雜貨戰略？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks for your question.

謝謝你的問題。

So early results are good.

所以早期的結果是好的。

We -- our grocery delivery orders from the combination of AmazonFresh and Whole Foods Market more than doubled in the fourth quarter year-over-year.

我們——我們來自 AmazonFresh 和 Whole Foods Market 的雜貨配送訂單在第四季度同比增長了一倍以上。

So we believe customers are starting to notice and take advantage of this.

因此，我們相信客戶開始注意到並利用這一點。

We wanted to take -- we will see where people's tastes and preferences will take them.

我們想採取——我們將看到人們的口味和偏好會將他們帶到哪裡。

We are -- whether they go to the store, the Whole Foods Market store, whether they use Prime Now or Amazon delivery for their groceries.

我們是——無論他們去商店、Whole Foods Market 商店，他們是否使用 Prime Now 或亞馬遜送貨服務。

Right now, we're really just testing and reacting to the customer demand and the customers' preferences, and we'll do so for the foreseeable future.

目前，我們實際上只是在測試客戶需求和客戶偏好並做出反應，我們將在可預見的未來這樣做。

Our final question will come from the line of Mark Mahaney with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mark Mahaney。

Okay.

好的。

Then I'll throw off 3 quick ones.

然後我會扔掉3個快速的。

Just talk a little bit more about gross margins in the quarter.

多談談本季度的毛利率。

You had -- the year-over-year trend was negative last quarter, but it turned, reversed and was up this quarter.

你有 - 上個季度的同比趨勢是負面的，但它在本季度轉向，逆轉並上漲。

So if there are any unusual factors you'd want to call out there.

因此，如果有任何不尋常的因素，你會想在那里大聲疾呼。

Second, the -- I don't want to read over a lot into your guidance, but every year for the last 5 years, you've always guided to operating profit down sequentially, and then you maybe delivered better than that, but you always guided down.

其次，我不想過多閱讀您的指導，但在過去的 5 年中，每年您總是指導營業利潤按順序下降，然後您的交付可能會比這更好，但是您總是被引導下來。

This year, your high end of your range is actually above what you obviously did in the fourth quarter.

今年，你範圍的高端實際上高於你在第四季度的明顯表現。

Are you just trying to remind people, tell people, educate people on how the mix shift in the business towards AWS and advertising is just changing the profit profile of the business?

您是否只是想提醒人們、告訴人們、教育人們業務向 AWS 和廣告的混合轉變如何改變了企業的利潤狀況？

So any more color there.

所以那裡有更多的顏色。

And then last one, since Sunday is coming up, I know you talked about the AWS customers, and you mentioned the Seattle Seahawks, but what about the 49ers?

最後一個，因為周日快到了，我知道你談到了 AWS 客戶，你提到了西雅圖海鷹隊，但是 49 人隊呢？

Good luck, 49ers.

祝你好運，49人隊。

I'll get that out there first.

我會先把它弄出來。

Good luck, Kansas City Chiefs fans.

祝你好運，堪薩斯城酋長隊的球迷。

We're indifferent.

我們無動於衷。

Let me start with your second one on -- sorry, the -- start with gross margin.

讓我從你的第二個開始 - 抱歉，從毛利率開始。

Yes.

是的。

So I don't think there's anything too surprising you caught there.

所以我不認為你在那裡被抓到有什麼太令人驚訝的事情。

I think we continue to see some good growth in the third-party business.

我認為我們繼續看到第三方業務的一些良好增長。

You saw that accelerate some.

你看到加速了一些。

We're continuing to see that trend of more FBA sellers signing and taking a larger percentage of the total 3P mix of units that are sold through, so that continues to do well.

我們繼續看到越來越多的 FBA 賣家簽約並在通過銷售的 3P 組合中佔據更大比例的趨勢，因此這種趨勢繼續表現良好。

And as Brian mentioned earlier, we think some of that has to do with the program keeps getting better with faster shipping and whatnot.

正如布賴恩之前提到的，我們認為其中一些與該程序通過更快的運輸和諸如此類的東西不斷變得更好有關。

We've invested many billions of dollars in that program to make it even better for sellers.

我們已經在該計劃中投入了數十億美元，以使其對賣家更好。

AWS had a strong quarter, of course, so that helps on the gross margin side as well.

當然，AWS 的季度表現強勁，這也有助於提高毛利率。

And then on transportation, I think you saw the outbound shipping costs to grow around 43% year-over-year.

然後在運輸方面，我認為您看到出境運輸成本同比增長約 43%。

So certainly up a good deal versus the trend line we saw in 2018.

因此，與我們在 2018 年看到的趨勢線相比，這肯定是一筆不錯的交易。

But of course, that's reflective of one-day and overall relative to our expectations.

但是，當然，這反映了相對於我們預期的一天和整體。

As Brian said, with the $1.5 billion we guided to, we came in a bit under that.

正如布賴恩所說，以我們引導的 15 億美元，我們的收入有點低。

So some of that was certainly part of some better-than-expected transportation efficiencies.

因此，其中一些肯定是一些好於預期的運輸效率的一部分。

And on the comment on seasonality of guidance and Q1, that -- I think the historic trend of peaking a bit in operating income in Q4 and then stepping down in Q1 has been broken up a little bit as we've had the balance of AWS and some other things.

關於指導和第一季度季節性的評論，我認為第四季度營業收入達到頂峰然後在第一季度下降的歷史趨勢已經被打破了一點，因為我們已經有了 AWS 的平衡和其他一些事情。

But if you actually look back to Q1 of last year, it was the highest operating income quarter on record, and that's one of the -- makes a difficult comp this year because we had the, if you remember, the slowdown in expenditures in 2018 in things like fixed -- adding of headcount, warehouse space, infrastructure costs, not to 0 but like down off of prior investment levels in 2016 and 2017.

但如果你真的回顧去年的第一季度，那是有記錄以來營業收入最高的季度，這是今年的困難之一，因為如果你記得的話，我們經歷了 2018 年支出放緩在固定方面——增加員工人數、倉庫空間、基礎設施成本，不是為零，而是低於 2016 年和 2017 年之前的投資水平。

A lot of that continued -- that cost baseline continued into Q1 of 2019, and it actually was a super efficient quarter from a cost and profit standpoint.

其中很多還在繼續——成本基準一直持續到 2019 年第一季度，從成本和利潤的角度來看，這實際上是一個超級高效的季度。

Q2 of last year, we started to again make larger investments, particularly in one-day.

去年第二季度，我們再次開始進行更大的投資，尤其是在一天內。

And so that's now something that is lapping in Q1 of this year because we didn't really have one-day in Q1 of last year.

所以這就是今年第一季度的事情，因為我們在去年第一季度並沒有真正的一天。

But -- so I think there's -- it's hard to draw those parallels between quarters anymore.

但是 - 所以我認為有 - 很難再在季度之間畫出這些相似之處了。

I will though mention the guidance that we do have the $800 million of lower depreciation from our extension of our server useful lives, which is part of the range that we gave you of $3 billion to $4.2 billion.

不過，我要提到的指導是，我們確實通過延長服務器使用壽命而減少了 8 億美元的折舊，這是我們為您提供的 30 億美元至 42 億美元範圍的一部分。

Thanks for joining us today on the call and for your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議並提出您的問題。

A replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at least through the end of the quarter.

至少在本季度末，我們的投資者關係網站上將提供重播。

We appreciate your interest in Amazon, and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

感謝您對亞馬遜的興趣，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。