亞馬遜 (AMZN) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q3 2020 Financial Results Teleconference. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的支持。大家好，歡迎參加亞馬遜 2020 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。

For opening remarks, I will be turning the call over to the Head of Investor Relations, Dave Fildes. Please go ahead.

在開場發言時，我將把電話轉給投資者關係主管戴夫·菲爾德斯 (Dave Fildes)。請繼續。

Hello, and welcome to our Q3 2020 financial results conference call. Joining us today to answer your questions is Brian Olsavsky, our CFO.

您好，歡迎參加我們 2020 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天，我們的財務長 Brian Olsavsky 將與我們一起回答您的問題。

As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter. Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2019.

當您收聽今天的電話會議時，我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的新聞稿，其中包括我們的財務表現以及本季度的指標和評論。請注意，除非另有說明，本次電話會議中的所有比較都將針對我們 2019 年同期的結果。

Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, October 29, 2020, only, and will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially. Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

我們對您的問題的評論和回應僅反映管理層截至 2020 年 10 月 29 日的觀點，並將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們財務表現的因素的更多資​​訊包含在今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告和後續文件。

During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. In our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website, you will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的新聞稿、本次網路廣播附帶的幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中（每一份都發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上），您將找到有關這些非公認會計準則指標的更多披露，包括這些指標與可比公認會計準則指標的對帳。

Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions. Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and customer spending, world events, the rate of growth of the Internet, online commerce and cloud services and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC.

我們的指導包含了我們迄今為止所看到的訂單趨勢以及我們今天認為合適的假設。我們的結果本質上是不可預測的，並且可能受到許多因素的重大影響，包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和客戶支出的變化、世界事件、互聯網、線上商務和雲端服務的增長率以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的各種因素。

This guidance also reflects our estimates to date regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our operations, including those discussed in our filings with the SEC, and is highly dependent on numerous factors that we may not be able to predict or control, including the duration and scope of the pandemic, including any recurrence; actions taken by governments, businesses and individuals in response to the pandemic; the impact of the pandemic on global and regional economies and economic activity, workforce staffing and productivity; and our significant and continued spending on employee safety measures; our ability to continue operations in affected areas and consumer demand and spending patterns as well as the effects on suppliers, creditors and third party sellers, all of which are uncertain.

本指引也反映了我們迄今為止對 COVID-19疫情對我們營運的影響的估計，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論的估計，並且高度依賴於我們可能無法預測或控制的眾多因素，包括疫情的持續時間和範圍，包括任何復發；政府、企業和個人為應對疫情所採取的行動；疫情對全球和區域經濟及經濟活動、勞動力配置和生產力的影響；以及我們在員工安全措施方面的大量且持續的投入；我們在受影響地區繼續運營的能力以及消費者需求和支出模式以及對供應商、債權人和第三方賣家的影響，所有這些都是不確定的。

Our guidance also assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, investments, restructurings or legal settlements. It's not possible to accurately predict demand for our goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance.

我們的指導還假設，除其他事項外，我們不會完成任何額外的業務收購、投資、重組或法律和解。我們無法準確預測對我們的商品和服務的需求，因此，我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導有重大差異。

And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start by extending a big thank you to all the folks who worked hard to make this year's Prime Day a great success, not only for our more than 150 million Prime members around the world, but also for the hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized businesses who sell on our Amazon store, many of whom are facing their own challenges during this pandemic. These businesses thrived on Prime Day, with third-party sellers recognizing more than $3.5 billion in sales over the 2-day global event. That's a 60% increase compared to Prime Day last year.

感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我要向所有為今年的 Prime Day 取得圓滿成功而努力工作的人們表示衷心的感謝，這不僅是為了我們遍布全球的 1.5 億多 Prime 會員，也是為了在我們亞馬遜商店銷售商品的數十萬家中小型企業，其中許多企業在這場疫情期間都面臨著自身的挑戰。這些企業在 Prime Day 期間蓬勃發展，第三方賣家在為期兩天的全球活動中實現了超過 35 億美元的銷售額。與去年的 Prime Day 相比，成長了 60%。

I also want to thank and recognize the contributions of the more than 1 million Amazon employees and delivery partners who are continuing to work hard to serve our customers all around the world. We will continue to spend what it takes to help ensure the safety and well-being of our employees and partners.

我還要感謝並表彰 100 多萬亞馬遜員工和配送合作夥伴的貢獻，他們正在繼續努力為世界各地的客戶提供服務。我們將繼續投入必要的資金來確保我們的員工和合作夥伴的安全和福祉。

Now let me share some highlights from the quarter. Our Q3 results largely reflect the continuation of demand trends we saw when we exited the second quarter, with strong demand and sales growth across our major product categories globally, including hardlines, consumables, softlines and media.

現在讓我分享本季的一些亮點。我們的第三季業績在很大程度上反映了我們在第二季結束時看到的需求趨勢的延續，全球主要產品類別（包括硬線產品、消耗品、軟線產品和媒體）的需求和銷售強勁增長。

We also continue to see strong Prime member engagement. Prime members continue to shop with greater frequency and across more categories than before the pandemic began. They continue to expand their usage of Prime's digital benefits, including Prime Video. Internationally, the number of Prime members who stream Prime Video grew by more than 80% year-over-year in the third quarter, and international customers more than doubled the hours of content they watched on Prime Video compared to last year.

我們也持續看到 Prime 會員的強勁參與度。與疫情爆發前相比，Prime 會員的購物頻率更高，購物類別也更多。他們繼續擴大 Prime 數位福利的使用範圍，包括 Prime Video。在國際上，第三季觀看 Prime Video 的 Prime 會員數量年增超過 80%，國際客戶在 Prime Video 上觀看內容的時間比去年增加了一倍以上。

We're also reaching more customers with our grocery offerings. In Q3, our year-over-year growth rate of online grocery sales continued to accelerate, and we've continued to offer more convenient options for customers, including grocery pickup, which is now available from all Whole Foods market stores. And just as we saw in Q2, Prime member renewal rates improved in Q3 year-over-year.

我們的食品雜貨產品也吸引了更多的顧客。在第三季度，我們的線上食品雜貨銷售額年增率持續加快，我們繼續為客戶提供更便利的選擇，包括食品雜貨提貨服務，現在所有 Whole Foods 市場商店均可提供該服務。正如我們在第二季度看到的那樣，Prime 會員續訂率在第三季同比有所提高。

3P sellers, who, as I mentioned, are largely comprised of small and medium-sized businesses continue to be an important part of our offering to customers. Our 3P seller services revenue continued to grow faster than online stores revenue, with particularly strong growth this quarter in FBA as we return to a similar mix of FBA as a percentage of total 3P units as we've seen prior to COVID. 3P units continue to represent over half of overall unit volume, increasing to 54% of the total unit mix in Q3. We're investing heavily to support sellers and are pleased to report that over 0.5 million sellers are seeing record sales in our stores this year.

正如我所提到的，第三方賣家主要由中小型企業組成，他們仍然是我們向客戶提供服務的重要組成部分。我們的 3P 賣家服務收入繼續以快於線上商店收入的速度成長，本季 FBA 的成長尤其強勁，因為我們恢復了與 COVID 之前類似的 FBA 佔 3P 總單位數的百分比。 3P 單位繼續佔總單位數量的一半以上，在第三季增加到總單位組合的 54%。我們正在大力投資支持賣家，並很高興地報告，今年有超過 50 萬賣家在我們的商店實現了創紀錄的銷售額。

We continue to focus on stepped-up employee safety, particularly in our fulfillment and logistics operations to help ensure the safety and well-being of our employees and partners as well as the employees and customers shopping in our Whole Foods market and other stores. This, of course, has added incremental cost to our P&L. The largest portion of these costs relate to continued productivity headwinds in our facilities, including process revisions to allow for social distancing and incremental costs to ramp up new facilities and the large influx of new employees hired to support strong customer demand. This also includes investments in PPE for employees and enhanced cleaning of our facilities. In total, we have incurred more than $7.5 billion in incremental COVID-related costs in the first 3 quarters of 2020, and we expect to incur approximately $4 billion in Q4.

我們繼續專注於加強員工安全，特別是在我們的履行和物流運營中，以幫助確保我們的員工和合作夥伴以及在我們的全食超市和其他商店購物的員工和顧客的安全和福祉。當然，這增加了我們的損益表的增量成本。這些成本中最大的一部分與我們工廠持續的生產力阻力有關，包括為適應社交距離而進行的流程修改、增加新設施的增量成本以及為滿足強勁的客戶需求而僱用的大量新員工。這也包括為員工投資個人防護裝備並加強對我們設施的清潔。總體而言，我們在 2020 年前三個季度已產生​​超過 75 億美元的與 COVID 相關的增量成本，我們預計第四季度將產生約 40 億美元。

Our consolidated revenue and operating income exceeded the top end of our guidance range. As demand remained strong in the quarter, the extra volume and operating leverage helped us to achieve higher-than-expected profitability. And we saw another strong quarter of revenue growth and operating income performance in AWS and advertising. We had good leverage with our fulfillment centers as well as in Amazon Logistics, our transportation network, despite the higher COVID-related costs that I mentioned.

我們的綜合收入和營業收入超出了我們的預期範圍的最高限度。由於本季需求依然強勁，額外的銷售和經營槓桿幫助我們實現了高於預期的獲利能力。我們看到 AWS 和廣告業務又一個季度的營收成長和營業收入表現強勁。儘管我提到與新冠疫情相關的成本較高，但我們在配送中心以及運輸網路亞馬遜物流方面擁有良好的槓桿作用。

Although we had strong growth in our network in Q3, some of our fulfillment network expansion shifted out a few weeks and will happen in Q4 rather than Q3. Once new buildings open, they are short-term headwind to profitability as they ramp up and we prepare for Q4 peak. More of this headwind will be felt in Q4 rather than in Q3, and this is reflected in our Q4 guidance.

儘管我們的網路在第三季度實現了強勁增長，但我們的部分履行網路擴張已推遲了幾週，並將在第四季度而不是第三季度進行。一旦新建築投入使用，它們將在短期內對利潤產生不利影響，因為它們正在加速發展，我們正在為第四季度的高峰做準備。與第三季相比，第四季將感受到更多這種不利因素，這反映在我們的第四季指引中。

We're able to meet the heightened demand in Q3 because we opened up more network capacity, particularly in our transportation network. I point to 2 important drivers of this. First, we hired a lot more people to support the strong customer demand. We welcomed 250,000 permanent full-time and part-time employees just in Q3 and have already added about 100,000 more in the first month of Q4. I will note that these are permanent jobs with industry-leading pay, including Amazon's $15 minimum wage and great benefits such as health insurance, 401(k) plan and parental leave.

由於我們開放了更多的網路容量，特別是我們的交通網絡，我們能夠滿足第三季不斷增長的需求。我指出了造成這現象的兩個重要驅動因素。首先，我們僱用了更多的員工來滿足強勁的客戶需求。僅在第三季度，我們就迎來了 250,000 名永久全職和兼職員工，並且在第四季度的第一個月已經增加了約 100,000 名員工。我要指出的是，這些都是永久性的工作，具有行業領先的薪酬，包括亞馬遜的 15 美元最低工資和健康保險、401（k）計劃和育嬰假等優厚福利。

Secondly, this has been a big year for capital investments. We've invested nearly $30 billion in CapEx and finance leases through the first 9 months of 2020, including over $12 billion in Q3. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect to grow our fulfillment and logistics network square footage by approximately 50% this year, which includes significant additions to our fulfillment centers as well as our transportation facilities. Majority of these buildings opened in late Q3 and into Q4. About half of this square footage growth will be on the transportation side to the opening of more sorting centers and delivery stations.

其次，今年是資本投資大年。截至 2020 年的前 9 個月，我們已在資本支出和融資租賃方面投資近 300 億美元，其中第三季投資超過 120 億美元。正如我上個季度提到的，我們預計今年我們的履行和物流網絡面積將增加約 50%，其中包括大幅增加我們的履行中心和運輸設施。這些建築大部分於第三季末和第四季開業。其中約一半的成長面積將用於運輸方面，包括開設更多的分揀中心和配送站。

And finally, in AWS, customer usage remains strong. We continue to see companies meaningfully growing their plans to move to AWS. And we are busy gearing up for our annual re:Invent conference. This year, re:Invent will be a free 3-week virtual conference running from November 30 through December 18.

最後，在 AWS 中，客戶使用率依然強勁。我們不斷看到各公司大力推動遷移至 AWS 的計畫。我們正忙著為一年一度的 re:Invent 會議做準備。今年，re:Invent 將是一場免費的為期 3 週的虛擬會議，從 11 月 30 日持續到 12 月 18 日。

We are extremely grateful to our employees across Amazon, who have delivered an unprecedented demand for several months now as well as a strong Prime Day in October. We are ready to go and looking forward to meeting the needs of our customers this holiday season.

我們非常感謝亞馬遜的所有員工，他們在過去幾個月中滿足了前所未有的需求，並在 10 月實現了強勁的 Prime Day 銷售。我們已做好準備，期待在這個假期滿足客戶的需求。

With that, let's move on to Q&A.

接下來，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。

I have 2, Brian. Just the first one, you mentioned the fulfillment center saw good leverage in the quarter. Can you just talk to us about some of the qualitative drivers of this improvement you're seeing in fulfillment cost per fulfilled unit in the quarter and sort of year-to-date? And how to think about the durability of that over time?

我有 2 個，布萊恩。就第一個問題而言，您提到履行中心在本季獲得了良好的槓桿作用。您能否與我們談談本季以及年初至今每單位履行成本改善的一些定性驅動因素？以及如何看待它的長期持久性？

And then secondly, I think throughout the summer, Amazon Logistics launched the third-party delivery service in the U.K. Curious just to hear about sort of early learnings from that product and how you think about scaling that to other countries and maybe globally.

其次，我認為整個夏天，亞馬遜物流都在英國推出了第三方配送服務。我很好奇，想聽聽您對該產品的早期經驗，以及您如何考慮將其擴展到其他國家甚至全球。

Sure, Brian. Thanks for your question. So yes, the fulfillment center cost is going to be a blend of the COVID-related -- part of the COVID-related costs that I've mentioned and itemized, offset by some really strong leverage. I would say that we've been running very consistently high levels really since all of our employees were -- came back in the first or second week of May. And it's a -- some of them had been on unpaid leave.

當然，布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。所以是的，履行中心的成本將是與 COVID 相關的成本的混合——我已經提到並逐項列出的部分與 COVID 相關的成本，並通過一些非常強大的槓桿來抵消。我想說的是，自從我們所有的員工在五月的第一周或第二週回來以來，我們的業績一直保持著非常高的水準。其中有些人已經休了無薪假。

The -- so that demand is very consistent and strong and has created a lot of favorable leverage because, again, the order pattern being high and consistent is leveraging our fixed cost assets. Things like our delivery routes are more dense at high volumes so we see even transportation, some increased efficiencies.

因此，需求非常穩定且強勁，並創造了許多有利的槓桿作用，因為訂單模式高且穩定，充分利用了我們的固定成本資產。我們的配送路線在運量大時會變得更加密集，因此運輸更加均勻，效率也提高了。

Offsetting that, again, is productivity elements that we've articulated, things like social distancing, extended breaks, other steps we're taking to keep people safe and distanced in our facilities in our delivery network.

再次抵消這一點的是我們闡明的生產力因素，例如社交距離、延長休息時間，以及我們正在採取的其他措施，以確保人們在我們的配送網路設施中的安全和距離。

And, this is Dave. I don't have much to share, I think, on what we've got going on any of those AMZL efforts other than I'd just say we're always working to develop new and innovative ways to support the companies we work with, including small and medium-sized businesses who sell on Amazon. And that includes testing and shipping programs that can help any of these businesses get packages to customers quickly and reliably.

這是戴夫。我認為，關於我們在 AMZL 所做的努力，我沒有太多可以分享的，但我只想說，我們一直在努力開發新的創新方式來支持與我們合作的公司，包括在亞馬遜上銷售產品的中小型企業。其中包括測試和運輸計劃，可以幫助這些企業快速、可靠地將包裹送達客戶。

Our next question comes from Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

Brian, just wanted to go back to the 4Q operating income guide. Appreciate your thoughts there. Just trying to dig a little bit deeper in terms of how you're thinking about it kind of beyond the $4 billion in COVID costs. It still feels like maybe there's some more in there that we're not thinking about, perhaps beyond the square footage increases and the incremental head count. So if you have any comments there.

布萊恩，我只是想回顧一下第四季營業收入指南。感謝您的想法。我只是想更深入地了解一下，除了 40 億美元的 COVID 成本之外，您還想了解一下對此的看法。感覺好像其中可能還有一些我們沒有考慮到的事情，也許除了面積增加和員工人數增加之外。如果您有任何意見的話。

And just curious, I know it's early on 2021, but you've obviously done a ton of investment this year and with the 50% square footage increase, and you tend to cycle at times in terms of CapEx investment. Just how do you think about digesting that kind of build-out as you go forward?

只是好奇，我知道現在是 2021 年初，但您今年顯然已經做了很多投資，並且面積增加了 50%，而且您在資本支出投資方面往往會出現週期性循環。您在未來的發展過程中如何考慮消化這種擴張？

Sure, Doug. One last comment I forgot to mention to Brian on his last question is the fact that a lot of that heightened demand so far come in Q2 and Q3 when we tend to have excess capacity before Q4. So that's another source of leverage, especially in non-peak quarters.

當然，道格。在回答 Brian 的最後一個問題時，我忘了提到最後一則評論，那就是到目前為止，許多需求的成長都出現在第二季和第三季度，而第四季之前我們往往產能過剩。所以這是另一個槓桿來源，特別是在非高峰季度。

As far as guidance is concerned, again, I think the -- there's a lot of uncertainty certainly in Q4. We generally have a lot of uncertainty around the holiday, things from holiday spending to what our cost to fulfilled normal orders would be, weather issues that can come up. This year is an election year, we saw some disruption in 2016. So there's a whole host of issues that generally come to bear in Q4. I think the fact that COVID is dwarfing all of those is causing us a lot of uncertainty on our top line range.

就指導而言，我再次認為第四季度肯定存在著許多不確定性。我們通常在假期期間會遇到很多不確定性，從假期支出到完成正常訂單的成本，以及可能出現的天氣問題。今年是選舉年，我們在 2016 年看到了一些混亂。因此，第四季通常會出現一系列問題。我認為，新冠疫情使所有這些影響都相形見絀，這給我們的營收範圍帶來了很大的不確定性。

We do see continuation -- we saw a continuation in Q3 of some really good trends from Q2, and we projected those into Q4. Some of the negative factors that you mentioned as far in profitability is, again, the -- we'll see more of the capital investment and the people investment. We had added a lot of people in the last quarter, and then we added another 100,000 people in October so far. So there's that.

我們確實看到了延續性——我們看到第三季度延續了第二季度的一些非常好的趨勢，並且我們預測這些趨勢將延續到第四季度。您提到的獲利能力方面的一些負面因素是—我們將看到更多的資本投資和人力投資。我們在上個季度增加了很多員工，然後到 10 月為止我們又增加了 100,000 名員工。就是這樣。

There's -- generally, the dynamics of Prime Day, because it's a deal-oriented time period, that's usually not the highest margin period, and that is shifted into Q4. But generally, we have -- really, because of the calendar this year, we have really built our capacity both in facilities and people and are carrying it through the entire quarter. We carried it through Prime Day, and now we're carrying it through into the rest of the quarter. I think in other quarters, you might have seen a more gradual buildup that would have occurred through October and been probably maximized in November and December.

一般來說，Prime Day 的動態是這樣的，因為它是一個以交易為導向的時間段，通常不是利潤最高的時期，而且會轉移到第四季度。但總的來說，由於今年的日程安排，我們確實在設施和人員方面都建立了產能，並將其貫穿整個季度。我們把它延續到了 Prime Day，現在我們將把它延續到本季度的剩餘時間。我認為在其他季度，你可能會看到更漸進的積累，這種積累會在 10 月發生，並可能在 11 月和 12 月達到最大值。

So that is the -- that's what I would tell you on holiday. Again, we have a normal caveat, so there's a lot of uncertainty and things that could go right and wrong. So that's why we put a range around it. And I'm sorry, could you repeat your second question?

這就是——這就是我在假期要告訴你的事情。再說一次，我們有一個正常的警告，因此存在許多不確定性，事情可能會正確或錯誤。這就是我們為其設定範圍的原因。抱歉，您能重複您的第二個問題嗎？

Just on how you think about 2021 perhaps and just CapEx build out going forward, given that you've really stepped up the investment in 2020?

鑑於您在 2020 年確實加大了投資，您如何看待 2021 年以及未來的資本支出成長？

Sure. I think some of the investment, things like grocery delivery and that capacity, are things that we would have invested in over time, and they're being matched by higher order volumes. So our intent is to continue to deliver a great grocery delivery experience for our customers. So that is a little bit of a pull forward.

當然。我認為一些投資，例如雜貨配送和產能，是我們隨著時間的推移會進行的投資，並且它們會與更高的訂單量相匹配。因此，我們的目的是繼續為客戶提供優質的雜貨配送體驗。所以這有點向前拉。

Yes, on -- we did expect to build out our logistics capacity a lot this year, especially as we had been -- excuse me, as we had been rolling out 1-day delivery the middle of last year. That was setting us up for a big build this year.

是的，我們確實預計今年我們的物流能力將大幅提升，尤其是考慮到我們去年年中就推出了 1 天送達服務。這為我們今年的大規模建設做好了準備。

So we pulled forward a bit from 2021 into this year to satisfy the demand. I think we have a -- the logistics team is really good at one way locking up long-term commitments on space and buildings, but on the other hand, being able to adjust the time line in or out to match capacity and demand. I think at this point, we are not trying to cut it close, and we are erring on the side of having too much demand -- or excuse me, too much capacity. And we think that's the right call. It has been this year. And we'll adjust as we get through the holiday, we'll learn a lot more. Hopefully, the pandemic -- we'll be in better shape as a country and globe in Q1 of next year, but it's very reactionary at this point. We've got to play the hand that we're dealt, and we're trying to anticipate and keep the customer insulated from any variability. But it's challenging, certainly.

因此，我們將時間從 2021 年提前到今年，以滿足需求。我認為我們的物流團隊非常擅長一方面鎖定空間和建築物的長期承諾，另一方面能夠調整時間表以匹配容量和需求。我認為目前我們並沒有試圖縮小，而且我們的錯誤在於需求過多——或者對不起，產能過多。我們認為這是正確的決定。今年已經過去了。隨著假期的過去，我們會不斷調整，學到更多。希望到明年第一季，我們國家和全球的疫情狀況會有所好轉，但目前來看，疫情的影響非常大。我們必須採取切實可行的措施，並努力預測並保護客戶免受任何變化的影響。但這確實具有挑戰性。

Our next question comes from Justin Post with Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美林證券的賈斯汀波斯特 (Justin Post)。

Great. When you look at 3Q of the environment, can you help us kind of understand the best you can quantify how much of the incremental unit sales do you think are being aided by COVID? Or how much is it just a natural recurring shift online that could recur and continue to grow next year? Any thoughts on that?

偉大的。當您觀察第三季的環境時，您能否幫助我們最好地量化您認為有多少增量單位銷售量受到了 COVID 的幫助？或者說，這在多大程度上只是一種自然而然的在線轉變，明年可能會再次出現並繼續增長？對此有什麼想法嗎？

And then same type of question for the cloud. With -- I'm guessing there's some headwinds of lower transaction volumes for some of your customers, and then maybe there's more demand from the work-at-home environment. So if you could give us any thoughts on both retail and cloud and how COVID is impacting it. And could there be -- how that will impact next year?

然後針對雲端也存在相同類型的問題。我猜想，對於您的一些客戶來說，交易量下降可能會帶來一些不利因素，而在家工作環境的需求可能會增加。因此，如果您能就零售和雲端運算以及 COVID 對其的影響給我們一些看法。這會對明年產生什麼影響？

Sure. It's hard to predict. I would say that there's been phases of this year last -- or excuse me, early on, there were a lot of stock ups of groceries and other household supplies followed by a wave of people buying gloves and disinfectant wipes and masks, and that may be a bit of a bubble that people are not going to buy as much next year. Hopefully, that would be a good problem to have if those demand -- that demand went down.

當然。這很難預測。我想說的是，去年經歷了幾個階段——或者對不起，年初，人們囤積了大量食品雜貨和其他家庭用品，隨後又有一波人購買手套、消毒濕巾和口罩，這可能是一個泡沫，明年人們不會再買那麼多了。但願，如果這些需求下降了，那將是一個好問題。

But otherwise, we're seeing Prime member engagement. So it's strengthening our Prime program. We're adding -- the renewal rates are going up, and the engagement is going up. And so people are buying more frequently and across more categories, they're using more of our digital benefits. So we like the trends on kind of connectiveness to our Prime program, and we think that will have lasting value.

但除此之外，我們看到了 Prime 會員的參與。因此它加強了我們的 Prime 計劃。我們正在增加——續訂率正在上升，參與度也在上升。因此，人們的購買頻率更高，涉及的商品種類也更多，他們使用我們的數位服務也更多。因此，我們喜歡與我們的 Prime 計劃相連接的趨勢，並且我們認為這將具有持久的價值。

When things open up a bit more and there's more store options for people to buy from, there will be leveling of volume back to the stores, I would imagine. But so we think the trends are good. They've been pulled forward probably a bit from our -- the adoption curves have been pulled forward from our pre-COVID thinking, especially on things like grocery delivery.

我想，當情況進一步開放，人們可以選擇的商店增加時，商店的銷售量就會恢復正常。但我們認為趨勢是好的。它們可能比我們的採用曲線提前了一點——比起我們疫情之前的想法，它們被提前了一點，特別是在雜貨配送等方面。

So your second question on the cloud. Cloud is a mixed bag right now because, I mean we're very happy with the cloud performance, and we're seeing a lot of customers who are now moving to cloud at a faster pace. They've accelerated their plans. There's anomalies in different industries going on this year. Things like travel and hospitality are down. A lot of companies are in a holding pattern in middle, and some are doing really well, things like video conferencing and gaming and remote learning and things tied to entertainment.

您的第二個問題是關於雲端的。雲端運算目前是一個混合體，因為我們對雲端運算的效能非常滿意，而且我們看到許多客戶現在正在以更快的速度轉向雲端運算。他們加快了計劃的實施。今年各行業都出現了一些異常現象。旅遊和招待業等均出現下滑。許多公司處於中間階段，但也有一些公司做得很好，例如視訊會議、遊戲、遠距學習以及與娛樂相關的領域。

So I would say the majority of the companies, though, are looking for ways to cut down on expenses. Going to the cloud is a good way to cut down on expenses long term. They're trying to cut down on their short-term costs in the cloud by tuning their workloads, and we're helping them do that and doing the best we can to help them save short-term dollars, and again, tune their usage against some of our benchmarks. So we think that is good for the customer, and that's -- therefore, it would be good for us long term.

因此我想說，大多數公司都在尋找削減開支的方法。從長遠來看，採用雲端運算是削減開支的好方法。他們試圖透過調整工作負載來削減雲端運算的短期成本，我們正在幫助他們做到這一點，並盡最大努力幫助他們節省短期成本，並且再次根據我們的一些基準調整他們的使用情況。所以我們認為這對客戶有利，而且從長遠來看這對我們也有好處。

But even despite those actions, we had strong growth. The year-over-year growth in absolute dollars this quarter were the largest we've ever seen, and we feel good about the state of the business and the state of our sales force and their ability to drive value during this period. We've seen a lot of companies extending their contracts with us. The backlog of multiyear deals has gone up quite a bit. So it's good from a customer connectiveness standpoint. Certainly, each industry is going through different dynamics right now.

但即使採取了這些行動，我們仍然實現了強勁成長。本季絕對美元的年增率是我們所見過的最大增幅，我們對業務狀況、銷售團隊的狀況以及他們在此期間推動價值的能力感到滿意。我們看到很多公司與我們延長了合約。多年期交易的積壓量已經增加了很多。因此從客戶連結的角度來看，這是一件好事。當然，每個行業現在都經歷著不同的動態。

And you can see -- this is Dave. I just want to add to that. You can see a number of those significant new commitments of customers called out in the release of carrier, global payments, a number of others. They're also seeing some good engagement with governments. They're recognizing the need to transform tech -- get their technology more nimble and innovative. Schools and universities are planning for online learning. So a lot of help we can work with customers to provide there.

你們可以看到——這是戴夫。我只是想補充一點。您可以看到，在營運商、全球支付等發布中提出了許多重要的新客戶承諾。他們也看到了與政府的一些良好合作。他們認識到轉變技術的必要性——使他們的技術更加靈活和創新。學校和大學正在規劃線上學習。因此我們可以與客戶合作提供許多幫助。

And on the -- kind of from a product perspective, we're seeing significant momentum with our AWS design Graviton2 processors. So you've got customers like SmugMug and Netflix and there's many others, but they're realizing up to 40% better price performance from the newer Amazon EC2s, the MRCT instance families, so when you compare that to the x86-based instances. So those Amazon EC2 instance families are all powered by our -- the newer AWS design Graviton2 processors. So really pleased with what we're seeing there in that engagement as well.

從產品角度來看，我們看到 AWS 設計的 Graviton2 處理器發展勢頭強勁。因此，您擁有像 SmugMug 和 Netflix 這樣的客戶，還有許多其他客戶，但他們從較新的 Amazon EC2（MRCT 執行個體系列）中獲得了高達 40% 的性價比提升，因此當您將其與基於 x86 的執行個體進行比較時。因此，這些 Amazon EC2 執行個體系列均由我們較新的 AWS 設計 Graviton2 處理器提供支援。我們對在那次交戰中看到的情況感到非常高興。

Our next question is from Heath Terry from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的希思·特里。

Great. Just a couple of things I want to -- kind of related. How should we think about where capacity utilization of the fulfillment infrastructure is at this point with the wave of growth that we've seen and the wave of new warehouse announcement? What kind of CapEx is going to be necessary to sort of bring you back to what you would consider normal levels that you're -- that you'd be growing from?

偉大的。我只想說幾件相關的事情。鑑於我們已經看到的成長浪潮和新倉庫公告浪潮，我們應該如何看待目前履行基礎設施的產能利用率處於什麼水平？需要什麼樣的資本支出才能使您恢復到您認為的正常水平——也就是您能夠實現的成長水平？

And then there's obviously been a lot of discussion around the capacity limitations that third-party shipping networks are going to see this holiday season, given demand. How much of an issue do you see that as being -- and given your investments in your own delivery capacity, does that become a competitive advantage for you during the holiday?

顯然，考慮到需求，關於第三方航運網絡在這個假期將面臨的運力限制，已經有很多討論。您認為這是一個多大的問題？考慮到您對自身配送能力的投資，這是否會成為您在假期期間的競爭優勢？

Yes. Thanks, Heath. I'll start with that last one. Yes, I know they're all intertwined here. So the third-party shipping, we rely on third-party shippers. We have great partnerships around the globe with third-party shippers, and we know that their capacity will be tight, as well ours. We do feel good that we've invested quite a bit in our own capacity. And you just mentioned that about half of our Ops CapEx is going to expand in transportation. A lot of the people that we're hiring are also focused on transportation. So we feel good that we've been able to develop that capability a lot this year because we've needed it, and we're going to need it in Q4.

是的。謝謝，希思。我先從最後一個開始。是的，我知道它們都交織在一起。因此對於第三方運輸，我們依賴第三方托運人。我們與世界各地的第三方托運商建立了良好的合作關係，我們知道他們的運力和我們的一樣緊張。我們確實很高興我們在自己的能力上投入了不少。您剛才提到，我們大約一半的營運資本支出將在運輸領域擴大。我們僱用的許多人也專注於交通運輸領域。因此，我們很高興今年能夠大力發展這種能力，因為我們需要它，而且我們將在第四季度需要它。

Having said that, it's going to be tight for everyone. And I think it's -- we'll all be stretched, and it's advantageous to the customer and probably to the companies for people to order early this year. But regardless of the order pattern, we're going to do our best to get the usual excellent service to our customers.

話雖如此，對每個人來說，情況都會很緊張。我認為——我們都會捉襟見肘，人們今年早些時候訂購對客戶和公司來說都是有利的。但無論訂單模式如何，我們都會盡最大努力為客戶提供一致的優質服務。

On CapEx levels, again, we've grown our infrastructure -- excuse me, our fulfillment and logistics infrastructure 50% this year. We'll see again what that implies for next year. We do see continued expansion and CapEx specifically in our transportation area. So that will be the start of probably a multiyear period where we're higher on CapEx for that. But we'll see. We're -- right now, we're just focused on Q4 and giving the guidance for Q4.

在資本支出水準上，我們再次擴大了基礎設施——對不起，今年我們的履行和物流基礎設施增加了 50%。我們將再次看看這對明年意味著什麼。我們確實看到了持續的擴張和資本支出，特別是在運輸領域。因此，這可能是我們多年資本支出較高時期的開始。但我們會看到。我們 - 目前，我們只關注第四季度並提供第四季度的指導。

Your question on capacity utilization, it's been very tight this year. Certainly, we were able to fill up a lot of our -- any excess capacity in Q2 and Q3 that might have seasonally been excess. As we get into Q4 and everything stepping up, we're adding it and using it simultaneously. We had a really good test for Prime Day, and we feel good about the performance of the network, and we continue to add on top of that. So lots of excitement around the holiday, and -- but we feel we're in good shape and ready to go.

關於產能利用率的問題，今年的產能利用率非常緊張。當然，我們能夠填補第二季和第三季可能因季節性原因而過剩的產能。隨著我們進入第四季度並且一切都在推進，我們會同時添加和使用它。我們對 Prime Day 進行了非常好的測試，我們對網路的效能感到滿意，並且我們會繼續在此基礎上進行改進。假期期間有很多令人興奮的事情，而且——我們感覺我們已經做好了良好的狀態並準備出發。

Our next question is from Mark Mahaney with RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Mark Mahaney。

Two questions, please. How should we think about these $4 billion expenses in the fourth quarter, the $7 billion year-to-date? Like, do you view them more as onetime-ish or just overall increases as you build out the network? Are they structured or onetime-ish? I really want to get at that.

請問兩個問題。我們該如何看待第四季的 40 億美元支出以及今年迄今的 70 億美元支出？例如，您是否認為它們是一次性的，還是隨著網路的建設而整體增加？它們是結構化的還是一次性的？我真的很想得到這個。

Secondly, international segment has been nicely profitable or reasonably profitable for 2 quarters in a row. Is there some reason to think that, that's sustainable?

其次，國際業務已連續兩季實現良好獲利或合理獲利。有什麼理由認為這是可持續的嗎？

And then, I'm sorry, a third question. The other revenue growth accelerated to 49%. Can you give any color behind that?

然後，很抱歉，我還有第三個問題。其他收入成長加速至49%。你能解釋一下背後的原因嗎？

Mark, thank you. Let me start with the COVID question. So we have -- again, our expenses in Q3 were estimated to be 2.5 -- around $2.5 billion, and we're seeing closer to $4 billion in Q4. The majority of that is due to the expansion of our operations. So things like productivity that -- there's productivity drags for things like new hire ramps, social distancing, extending break periods. Things that we can quantify that say, look, this is a change in our process that has hurt productivity. We also have costs related to -- there's more -- so those are calculated a bit. There's more direct costs around cleaning and supplies, testing. And those are the main things, I would say.

馬克，謝謝你。我先從 COVID 問題開始。因此，我們第三季的支出預計為 25 億美元左右，而第四季的支出預計將接近 40 億美元。其中大部分是由於我們業務的擴張。因此，諸如生產力之類的因素——新員工招募、社交距離、延長休息時間等因素都會拖累生產力。我們可以量化的事情是，看，這是我們流程中的一個變化，它損害了生產力。我們還有相關的成本——還有更多——所以這些都經過了一些計算。清潔、供應和測試方面的直接成本更多。我想說，這些都是主要的事情。

So what we're trying to do by capturing these costs is to show what is, we believe, is incremental. And the intent is that these -- for our own knowledge as well that these will -- once the pandemic is over, hopefully that soon, that these should be costs that don't recur, okay?

因此，我們透過捕捉這些成本來表明我們認為什麼是增量的。我們的目的是，就我們自己所知，一旦疫情結束，希望很快結束，這些成本就不會再發生，好嗎？

We know, though, simultaneously, there are some benefits going on right now. There's things like in Q2, we had lower marketing expense. You see that in our trends. It's starting to come back in Q3 and Q4 to more normalized levels. But certainly, everyone -- there was not a lot of requirements or need to do marketing this year, for parts of the year. We've saved nearly $1 billion in travel this year because travels ground to a halt, internal travel, travel and expenses. So there's things like that, that will resume at a later date and maybe not get to the same levels as the past, but they will be -- they won't be as artificially low as this year.

但我們知道，同時，現在也有一些好處。例如，在第二季度，我們的行銷費用較低。你可以從我們的趨勢中看到這一點。它在第三季和第四季開始恢復到更正常的水平。但可以肯定的是，今年，在一年中的部分時間裡，對每個人來說，沒有太多的要求或需要做行銷。由於旅行陷入停滯，今年我們在旅行方面節省了近 10 億美元，包括國內旅行、旅行和費用。因此，類似這樣的情況會在稍後恢復，也許不會達到過去的水平，但不會像今年這樣人為地處於低位。

So we're trying to be transparent as best we can on the cost we're seeing. We're always netting against some of the favorabilities from demand and some of those other costs that might be offsetting all, but they're not offsetting to the extent that COVID costs are sitting there.

因此，我們正盡力透明地展示我們所看到的成本。我們總是抵消一些來自需求的有利因素和一些可能抵消所有成本的其他因素，但它們的抵消程度還不足以抵消 COVID 成本。

And then I will point to the fact that we are -- because we're running at such a high level and a consistently high level really in off-peak periods, we have been able to run these warehouses very efficiency -- efficiently. You have to split the discussion kind of between the cost penalty on the COVID-related issues, but then there's certainly been some favorability from running assets at more full-out condition, okay? So hopefully, that gives you some color on it.

然後我要指出的是，因為我們的運行水平如此之高，而且在非高峰時段也一直保持著高水平，所以我們能夠非常有效率地運行這些倉庫。您必須將討論分為與 COVID 相關問題的成本懲罰，但在更全力運行資產的情況下肯定會帶來一些好處，好嗎？希望這能帶給你一些啟發。

International segment profitability, yes, I would say -- and I think we discussed this a bit last quarter. We're seeing an advancement of volume and very strong volume, if you will, in -- especially in our countries in Europe and Japan, that so we may be putting away future volume onto this year's cost structure. So that is probably why you're starting to see -- that is why you're seeing profitability in international.

是的，我想說，國際部門的獲利能力——我想我們上個季度討論過這個問題。我們看到產量正在成長，而且成長非常強勁，尤其是在歐洲和日本，因此我們可能會將未來的產量計入今年的成本結構中。所以這可能是你開始看到的原因——這就是你看到國際獲利的原因。

I would say generally, we are still investing ahead of the U.S. in a lot of dimensions internationally, things like Prime benefits, things like the devices, things like international expansion. You might have seen that we just launched in Sweden yesterday. So there's a lot of competing factors going on right now internationally. But I think right -- because of the high volumes and the leverage we're seeing, particularly in places like the U.K. and Germany, that it's creating profitability ahead of schedule, if you will.

我想說，總體而言，我們在國際上許多方面的投資仍然領先於美國，例如 Prime 福利、設備、國際擴張等方面。您可能已經看到，我們昨天才剛在瑞典推出。因此，目前國際上存在著許多競爭因素。但我認為是正確的——由於我們看到的高交易量和槓桿率，特別是在英國和德國等地，如果你願意的話，它會提前創造盈利能力。

But we feel good about the level of investment. That's continued, and we see that we're committed to continuing that even after the pandemic. And included in the international segment, of course, is India where we've had -- we had a very strong Prime Day, and Diwali is off to a good start.

但我們對投資水準感到滿意。這種做法仍在繼續，我們看到，即使在疫情結束後，我們仍致力於繼續這樣做。當然，國際部分也包括印度，我們在印度舉辦了非常成功的 Prime Day，排燈節也有一個好的開始。

And so anyway, the third comment was on other revenue. Yes, that is essentially going to be mostly advertising, and we had a very strong advertising performance in Q3, so a continuation of the trends that we saw in Q2. We start to see advertising budgets increase from some of the contraction that has occurred earlier in Q2. And we just had a lot more traffic, and we do a good job of turning that traffic into valuable real estate for our advertisers and for our customers to get -- to find out more about selection and brand discovery. So most of that is -- it was a strong quarter in advertising, and that's what you're seeing in the other revenue line.

無論如何，第三條評論是關於其他收入的。是的，這基本上主要是廣告，我們在第三季的廣告表現非常強勁，因此延續了我們在第二季看到的趨勢。我們開始看到廣告預算從第二季早些時候出現的一些收縮中增加。我們的流量大幅增加，我們很好地將這些流量轉化為寶貴的資源，供我們的廣告商和客戶獲取更多信息，了解品牌選擇和品牌發現。所以，其中大部分是——本季廣告業務表現強勁，這也是您在其他收入線上看到的。

Our final question will come from Eric Sheridan with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe 2, if I can. One following up on Mark's question on the advertising side. We continue to see you guys innovate a lot on the product side, especially with programmatic advertising, video advertising. Can you just give us a little bit of a sense of how you see the advertising offering both on Amazon and off Amazon sort of evolving years ahead?

如果可以的話，也許是 2。接下來是馬克關於廣告方面的問題。我們不斷看到你們在產品方面做出大量創新，特別是在程序化廣告和影片廣告方面。您能否向我們簡單介紹一下未來幾年亞馬遜內外的廣告業務將如何發展？

And the second question would be coming back, Brian, to your comments in the opening remarks around Prime Video and all the consumption you've seen globally in the recent past. How does help inform what you think about in terms of the opportunity to invest against original content to continue to drive that sort of media consumption loop within the Prime membership?

布萊恩，第二個問題回到您在開場白中關於 Prime Video 的評論以及您最近在全球範圍內看到的所有消費情況。就投資原創內容的機會而言，如何幫助您思考如何繼續推動 Prime 會員內的這種媒體消費循環？

Yes, great. Eric, I'll start off with the questions on advertising. So I just agree on you, I think our main priorities here with this space, and some of these probably aren't too surprising, is we're focused on making our tools easier to use. So both on the sponsored ads, sponsored brand side, updating sponsored product targeting, working on just simplifying registration for agencies and marketers, getting them set up.

是的，太棒了。艾瑞克，我先從廣告的問題開始。所以我同意你的觀點，我認為我們在這個領域的主要優先事項，其中一些可能並不太令人驚訝，就是我們專注於讓我們的工具更容易使用。因此，無論是在贊助廣告還是贊助品牌方面，更新贊助產品定位，都致力於簡化代理商和行銷人員的註冊，並幫助他們完成設定。

But we're also very focused on being smarter about servicing more relevant ads to customers, making display ads easier and then increasing usability of the Amazon demand-type platform. So we've been working on a number of those areas. And then developing new products. And a lot of that is focused around how are we serving brands from various areas, Twitch, sponsor brands, the stores, of course. So other interesting areas. So it's -- we're certainly in a unique position to be able to provide measurement services that help all these brands sort of understand the impact of other advertising in ways that are going to help them grow their business.

但我們也非常注重更聰明地向客戶提供更相關的廣告，讓展示廣告變得更容易，然後提高亞馬遜需求型平台的可用性。因此我們一直在致力於這些領域的工作。然後開發新產品。其中許多都集中在我們如何為各領域的品牌提供服務，當然還有 Twitch、贊助品牌、商店等。還有其它有趣的領域。因此，我們確實處於一個獨特的位置，能夠提供測量服務，幫助所有這些品牌以有助於他們發展業務的方式了解其他廣告的影響。

Video, you mentioned, I think video is one that we're working hard on with some of the OTT video advertising opportunities there. I'm seeing some good momentum with that. We offer inventory in the IMDb TV ad-supported space and on some 3P apps, both on and off the Fire TV. So a lot of, I think, good momentum there and a lot of good learnings on some of those initiatives there. I probably won't say too much about what will look like next year in the future, but that gives you kind of a sense of priorities where we're spending our time and focus on.

您提到了視頻，我認為我們正在努力利用視頻來拓展一些 OTT 視頻廣告機會。我看到了這方面的良好動力。我們在 IMDb TV 廣告支援空間和一些 3P 應用程式（包括 Fire TV 內部和外部）上提供庫存。所以我認為那裡有很多良好的勢頭，並且從一些舉措中可以獲得很多有益的經驗。我可能不會透露太多關於明年未來的情況，但這可以讓您了解我們花費時間和精力的優先事項。

And on your question on video. So step back, our goal is to deliver high quality and fresh content to our global Prime base member base. We're doing that by producing top-tier U.S. content that we show globally and then we augment that with local originals in each region. If we do that job well, we've seen it as a very significant acquisition channel for new Prime members, especially in many smaller countries around the world. You see higher free trial conversion rates, higher membership renewal rates and then higher overall engagement, as I mentioned, in Q3 specifically. And when they do that, the more engaged they are, we know that, that turns into more sales on Amazon. And that's -- it's a self-reinforcing loop.

關於您在影片中提出的問題。所以退一步來說，我們的目標是為全球 Prime 會員提供高品質、新鮮的內容。我們透過製作並在全球播放的頂級美國內容，然後在每個地區添加本地原創內容來實現這一目標。如果我們做得好，我們會將其視為吸引新 Prime 會員的一個非常重要的管道，尤其是在全球許多較小的國家。正如我所提到的，您會看到更高的免費試用轉換率、更高的會員續約率以及更高的整體參與度，特別是在第三季。我們知道，當他們這樣做時，他們的參與度越高，亞馬遜上的銷售量就越高。這就是──一個自我強化的循環。

So we're very happy with the video performance, particularly during this period. I think people have gotten a really good chance to test out the content. Maybe people hadn't used -- Prime members hadn't used that benefit as much in the past, given it another look and have really found value in it. We're in more than 240 countries and territories worldwide. And again, we're seeing some really interesting localized content developing in places like India, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, U.K. and Spain, which I think the customers in those countries really appreciate.

因此，我們對視訊表現非常滿意，尤其是在這段時期。我認為人們已經獲得了一個很好的機會來測試內容。也許人們沒有使用過——Prime 會員過去沒有使用過這種福利，但重新審視後，確實發現了它的價值。我們的業務遍及全球 240 多個國家和地區。而且，我們看到印度、巴西、墨西哥、澳洲、英國和西班牙等地正在開發一些非常有趣的在地化內容，我認為這些國家的客戶非常欣賞這些內容。

Great. Thanks for joining us today for the call and for your questions. A replay will be available on our Investor Relations website for at least 3 months. We appreciate your interest in Amazon, and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

偉大的。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議並提出您的問題。重播將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供至少 3 個月。感謝您對亞馬遜的關注，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。