亞馬遜 (AMZN) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by.

    謝謝你的支持。

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q3 2021 Financial Results Teleconference.

    大家好,歡迎來到 Amazon.com 2021 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)今天的電話正在錄音。

  • For opening remarks, I will be turning the call over to Director of Investor Relations, Dave Fildes.

    對於開場白,我將把電話轉給投資者關係總監 Dave Fildes。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Hello, and welcome to our Q3 2021 financial results conference call.

    您好,歡迎參加我們的 2021 年第三季度財務業績電話會議。

  • Joining us today to answer your questions is Brian Olsavsky, our CFO.

    今天加入我們回答您的問題的是我們的首席財務官 Brian Olsavsky。

  • As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter.

    在您收聽今天的電話會議時,我們鼓勵您將我們的新聞稿放在您面前,其中包括我們的財務業績以及本季度的指標和評論。

  • Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2020.

    請注意,除非另有說明,否則本次電話會議中的所有比較都將與我們 2020 年可比期間的結果相反。

  • Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, October 28, 2021 only and will include forward-looking statements.

    我們對您問題的評論和回复僅反映了管理層截至今天(2021 年 10 月 28 日)的觀點,並將包括前瞻性陳述。

  • Actual results may differ materially.

    實際結果可能大不相同。

  • Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

    有關可能影響我們財務業績的因素的其他信息包含在今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中,包括我們最近的 10-K 表格年度報告和後續文件。

  • During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們可能會在我們的新聞稿、本網絡廣播隨附的幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論某些非公認會計原則財務措施,每一項都發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。

  • You will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

    您會發現有關這些非公認會計原則措施的額外披露,包括這些措施與可比較的公認會計原則措施的對賬。

  • Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions.

    我們的指導包含了我們迄今為止看到的訂單趨勢以及我們今天認為是適當的假設。

  • Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and customer demand and spending, labor market and global supply chain constraints, world events, the rate of growth of the Internet, online commerce and cloud services and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC.

    我們的結果本質上是不可預測的,並且可能受到許多因素的重大影響,包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和客戶需求和支出的變化、勞動力市場和全球供應鏈限制、世界事件、互聯網的增長率、在線商務和雲服務以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的各種因素。

  • This guidance also reflects our estimates to date regarding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our operations, including those discussed in our filings with the SEC.

    該指南還反映了我們迄今為止對 COVID-19 大流行對我們運營的影響的估計,包括我們在提交給 SEC 的文件中討論的那些。

  • Our guidance also assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, restructurings or legal settlements.

    除其他外,我們的指導還假設我們不會完成任何額外的業務收購、重組或法律和解。

  • It's not possible to accurately predict demand for our goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance.

    無法準確預測對我們商品和服務的需求,因此,我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導存在重大差異。

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

    現在我將把電話轉給布賴恩。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you for joining us today.

    感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Let me first start by reiterating and expanding on a few comments that Andy made in our earnings release.

    讓我首先重申和擴展安迪在我們的收益發布中發表的一些評論。

  • We are now reporting our results for the seventh quarter since the pandemic began, and we are especially proud of our employees, for both their response to the unprecedented customer demand we have experienced as well as for their implementation of many safety procedures to create a safe work environment.

    我們現在正在報告自大流行開始以來的第七季度業績,我們特別為我們的員工感到自豪,因為他們對我們所經歷的前所未有的客戶需求做出了回應,並為他們實施了許多安全程序來創建一個安全的工作環境。

  • During this period, we have continued to earn the trust of our customers, especially our Prime members, who have increased their annual purchases and their use of Prime benefits over the last 20 months.

    在此期間,我們繼續贏得客戶的信任,尤其是我們的 Prime 會員,他們在過去 20 個月中增加了年度購買量和 Prime 福利使用量。

  • We've also seen strong growth in our advertising products as vendors and sellers have embraced their ability to build their brands and to reach customers just as they are considering their purchases.

    我們的廣告產品也出現了強勁增長,因為供應商和賣家已經接受了他們建立品牌並在客戶考慮購買時吸引他們的能力。

  • And AWS has seen a reacceleration of revenue growth as customers have expanded their commitment to the cloud and selected AWS as their cloud partner.

    隨著客戶擴大對雲的承諾並選擇 AWS 作為他們的雲合作夥伴,AWS 的收入增長再次加速。

  • As a result, Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth rate in the low 20% range.

    因此,亞馬遜第三季度的收入為 1108 億美元,兩年復合年增長率為 25%,而大流行前的增長率為 20% 的低位。

  • We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us.

    我們感謝信任我們的客戶。

  • However, there certainly have been challenges to overcome since February of last year.

    然而,自去年 2 月以來,肯定有一些挑戰需要克服。

  • We've nearly doubled our operations capacity in the past 2 years to keep up with the customer demand.

    在過去的 2 年中,我們的運營能力幾乎翻了一番,以滿足客戶的需求。

  • We've incurred billions of dollars in additional costs to keep our employees safe and to support testing and other COVID-related costs.

    我們已經產生了數十億美元的額外成本,以確保我們的員工安全並支持測試和其他與 COVID 相關的成本。

  • And we have grown our global headcount by 628,000 employees in the past 18 months and are recruiting for more, including more than 150,000 in the U.S. to support Q4 seasonal demand.

    在過去的 18 個月中,我們的全球員工人數增加了 628,000 名,並且正在招聘更多人,其中包括美國的 150,000 多名員工,以支持第四季度的季節性需求。

  • The demand for labor has recently coincided with the shortage of available workers, particularly in the United States.

    對勞動力的需求最近恰逢可用工人短缺,特別是在美國。

  • This began in Q2, but it really started to impact our operations and cost structure in Q3.

    這始於第二季度,但它真正開始影響我們第三季度的運營和成本結構。

  • It has led to wage increases and sign-on incentives as companies compete for workers as well as inconsistent staffing levels in our operations.

    隨著公司爭奪工人以及我們運營中的人員配備水平不一致,這導致了工資上漲和簽約激勵。

  • In addition, disruption to the global supply chains and inflation in the cost of materials such as steel and services such as trucking have also raised our cost of operations.

    此外,全球供應鏈的中斷以及鋼鐵等材料和卡車運輸等服務成本的上漲也提高了我們的運營成本。

  • We estimate the cost of labor, labor-related productivity losses and cost inflation to have added approximately $2 billion in operating cost in Q3, particularly in August and September.

    我們估計,勞動力成本、與勞動力相關的生產力損失和成本通脹在第三季度增加了約 20 億美元的運營成本,尤其是在 8 月和 9 月。

  • Our Q4 guidance range anticipates that these costs will approach $4 billion in Q4 as we see a full quarter's impact of these effects and a higher seasonal unit volume.

    我們的第四季度指導範圍預計這些成本將在第四季度接近 40 億美元,因為我們看到這些影響對整個季度的影響以及更高的季節性單位數量。

  • Specifically in Q3, we saw nearly $1 billion of inflationary pressures, primarily tied to wage increases and incentives in our operations.

    特別是在第三季度,我們看到了近 10 億美元的通脹壓力,主要與工資增長和我們運營中的激勵措施有關。

  • Our average starting wage is now over $18 per hour with an additional $3 per hour depending on shifts in many locations and sign-on bonuses that can be up to $3,000.

    我們的平均起薪現在超過每小時 18 美元,根據在許多地點的輪班和最高 3,000 美元的簽約獎金,每小時額外增加 3 美元。

  • In addition, we saw inflationary pressures in raw materials and services, as I mentioned, particularly in steel and third-party trucking.

    此外,正如我所提到的,我們看到了原材料和服務的通脹壓力,特別是在鋼鐵和第三方卡車運輸方面。

  • We also saw over $1 billion of costs tied to lost productivity and disruption in our operations.

    我們還看到超過 10 億美元的成本與生產力損失和運營中斷有關。

  • In Q3, labor became our primary capacity constraint, not storage space or fulfillment capacity.

    在第三季度,勞動力成為我們的主要產能限制,而不是存儲空間或履行能力。

  • As a result, inventory placement was frequently redirected to fulfillment centers that had the labor to receive the products.

    結果,庫存放置經常被重定向到有勞動力接收產品的履行中心。

  • This resulted in less optimal placement, which leads to longer and more expensive transportation routes.

    這導致不太理想的放置,從而導致更長和更昂貴的運輸路線。

  • In short, our operations are normally well staffed and optimized to be in stock and to deliver to customers in 1 to 2 days.

    簡而言之,我們的運營通常配備充足的人員並經過優化,以便在 1 到 2 天內有庫存並交付給客戶。

  • Labor shortages and supply chain disruptions upset this balance and resulted in additional costs to ensure that we continue to maintain our service levels to customers.

    勞動力短缺和供應鏈中斷打破了這種平衡,並導致了額外的成本,以確保我們繼續保持對客戶的服務水平。

  • As you look to Q4, we've incorporated this nearly $4 billion of added costs into our operating income guidance range.

    當您查看第四季度時,我們已將這近 40 億美元的額外成本納入我們的營業收入指導範圍。

  • In addition, we have a nearly $1 billion year-over-year increase in Q4 for spend to support our digital media content efforts, including video, music and games.

    此外,我們在第四季度的支出同比增長近 10 億美元,用於支持我們的數字媒體內容工作,包括視頻、音樂和遊戲。

  • We recently launched New World, a multiplayer online PC game, and we're delighted with the response and engagement.

    我們最近推出了多人在線 PC 遊戲 New World,我們對反應和參與感到高興。

  • New World has become the highest-played new game this year on Steam.

    《新世界》成為今年 Steam 上播放量最高的新遊戲。

  • Moving to video content.

    轉向視頻內容。

  • Prime Video has a compelling lineup of live sports, including the UEFA Champions League and Ligue 1 soccer in France as well as NFL Thursday Night Football in the United States.

    Prime Video 擁有引人入勝的現場體育賽事陣容,包括法國的歐洲冠軍聯賽和 Ligue 1 足球以及美國的 NFL 星期四晚上足球。

  • And we have a great lineup of original series to look forward to, including The Wheel of Time, Lord of the Rings and Citadel and new seasons from Jack Ryan, The Marvelous Mrs.

    我們還有大量原創系列值得期待,包括《時光之輪》、《指環王》和《城堡》,以及傑克·瑞恩 (Jack Ryan) 的新賽季,《了不起的夫人》。

  • Maisel and The Boys.

    梅塞爾和男孩。

  • We are excited to add this content to our Prime benefits and increase the value of our prime membership.

    我們很高興將這些內容添加到我們的 Prime 福利中並增加我們的 Prime 會員的價值。

  • Q4's guidance also includes an estimated $1 billion year-over-year negative impact from lower fixed cost leverage in our fulfillment network.

    第四季度的指導還包括我們履行網絡中較低的固定成本槓桿帶來的估計同比 10 億美元的負面影響。

  • Recall that we saw very high unit volumes in Q4 of last year, and then our fulfillment centers were running at close to 100% capacity as we work to add physical capacity to match demand.

    回想一下,我們在去年第四季度看到了非常高的單位數量,然後我們的履行中心以接近 100% 的容量運行,因為我們努力增加物理容量以滿足需求。

  • As we are now back to having a more normal Q4 fulfillment capacity and have even brought forward 2022 capacity into 2021, our operating leverage dropped compared with last Q4.

    由於我們現在恢復到更正常的第四季度履行能力,甚至將 2022 年的產能提前到 2021 年,我們的運營槓桿與上一個第四季度相比有所下降。

  • Our revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects the current trends we are seeing, including the lapping of our Prime Day event in October of last year.

    我們對第四季度的收入指導反映了我們所看到的當前趨勢,包括去年 10 月 Prime Day 活動的結束。

  • We're dealing with labor risks and supply chain interruptions like many other companies, which increases our range of potential outcomes in Q4.

    與許多其他公司一樣,我們正在處理勞動力風險和供應鏈中斷,這增加了我們在第四季度的潛在結果範圍。

  • Consumers have started to return to pre-pandemic spending patterns, increasing their mobility and spending more on travel and services in Q2 and Q3, but we are appreciative that the incremental demand that came our way during the pandemic has remained, and that we are continuing to grow on top of that.

    消費者已開始恢復大流行前的消費模式,增加了他們的流動性,並在第二季度和第三季度在旅行和服務上花費更多,但我們讚賞在大流行期間出現的增量需求仍然存在,並且我們正在繼續在此之上成長。

  • We also had to make this a great holiday season for customers.

    我們還必須讓這對客戶來說是一個美好的假期。

  • Last quarter, we discussed the physical capacity we were adding to meet customer demand.

    上個季度,我們討論了我們為滿足客戶需求而增加的物理容量。

  • We made strong progress in Q3 to build and open new facilities.

    我們在第三季度在建設和開設新設施方面取得了長足的進步。

  • And as a result, for the first time since the pandemic began, we are no longer capacity constrained for physical space in the network.

    因此,自大流行開始以來,我們第一次不再受到網絡物理空間的容量限制。

  • September alone, we brought online more than 100 new buildings in the United States, including fulfillment centers, sort centers and last-mile delivery stations.

    僅 9 月,我們就在美國推出了 100 多座新建築,包括配送中心、分揀中心和最後一英里配送站。

  • For the year, we expect our 2021 footprint additions to exceed last year's build-out, which was also significant.

    今年,我們預計我們 2021 年的足跡增加量將超過去年的擴建量,這也很重要。

  • To put this in perspective, we are on track to double our fulfillment network over the 2-year period since the pandemic's early days.

    從這個角度來看,我們有望在大流行初期以來的 2 年內將我們的履行網絡翻一番。

  • A lot of this increased capacity supports our FBA sellers.

    很多這種增加的容量為我們的 FBA 賣家提供了支持。

  • Third-party sellers and the products they offer remain an important strength of our offering for customers, representing 56% of total paid units sold in Q3.

    第三方賣家及其提供的產品仍然是我們為客戶提供的重要優勢,佔第三季度銷售的總付費單位的 56%。

  • That's up from 54% in Q3 of last year.

    這高於去年第三季度的 54%。

  • And we're working with these partners, most of whom are small and medium-sized businesses, to build an even stronger offering.

    我們正在與這些合作夥伴(其中大多數是中小型企業)合作,以打造更強大的產品。

  • We recently hosted Amazon Accelerate, our U.S. conference for selling partners, where we introduced new tools and capabilities, including local selling, which enables sellers to start or expand their multichannel offerings by providing both in-store pickup and fast delivery to nearby customers, and global selling tools to make it easier for U.S. third-party sellers to offer their products worldwide.

    我們最近舉辦了 Amazon Accelerate,這是我們面向銷售合作夥伴的美國會議,我們在會上介紹了包括本地銷售在內的新工具和功能,它使賣家能夠通過向附近客戶提供店內取貨和快速送貨來啟動或擴展他們的多渠道產品,以及全球銷售工具,使美國第三方賣家更容易在全球範圍內銷售他們的產品。

  • I'll finish with a few highlights regarding 2 fast-growing areas with strong profitability profiles.

    最後,我將重點介紹 2 個具有強大盈利能力的快速增長領域。

  • First, we saw a continuation of strong usage and revenue growth in AWS, with revenues accelerating to 39% year-over-year in Q3, driven by a broad base of services and customers.

    首先,我們看到 AWS 的使用量和收入持續強勁增長,在廣泛的服務和客戶基礎的推動下,第三季度收入同比增長 39%。

  • There are a number of areas we're excited about, but let's focus for a moment on our efforts in machine learning.

    我們對許多領域感到興奮,但讓我們暫時關註一下我們在機器學習方面的努力。

  • Customers of all sizes and across all industries are using AWS as their preferred cloud provider for machine learning services.

    各種規模和各行各業的客戶都在使用 AWS 作為機器學習服務的首選雲提供商。

  • We've been investing in this area for several years, offer an extensive set of machine learning services, including ones that can be applied to common business problems like Amazon Connect for contact center intelligence or Amazon Kendra for intelligent enterprise search.

    多年來,我們一直在該領域進行投資,提供廣泛的機器學習服務,包括可應用於常見業務問題的服務,例如用於聯絡中心智能的 Amazon Connect 或用於智能企業搜索的 Amazon Kendra。

  • And we recently launched solutions specific to industries, including industrial machine learning services as well as Amazon HealthLake to help health care and life sciences customers seamlessly transform their data across disparate sources to understand and extract meaningful medical information.

    我們最近推出了針對行業的解決方案,包括工業機器學習服務以及 Amazon HealthLake,以幫助醫療保健和生命科學客戶無縫轉換不同來源的數據,以了解和提取有意義的醫療信息。

  • And Amazon SageMaker continues to help customers scale their use of machine learning to core workloads, making it one of the fastest-growing services in AWS history with tens of thousands of active external customers using it every month.

    Amazon SageMaker 繼續幫助客戶將機器學習的使用擴展到核心工作負載,使其成為 AWS 歷史上增長最快的服務之一,每月有成千上萬的活躍外部客戶使用它。

  • We also continue to see strong interest and rapid adoption of our custom silicon and AWS-designed Graviton2 processors, delivering customers up to 40% better price/performance than current x86 processors.

    我們還繼續看到對我們的定制芯片和 AWS 設計的 Graviton2 處理器的強烈興趣和快速採用,為客戶提供比當前 x86 處理器高 40% 的性價比。

  • Moving to Graviton2 means little to no code changes so that customers can quickly and easily migrate their workloads to access the best price/performance in Amazon EC2.

    遷移到 Graviton2 意味著幾乎不需要更改代碼,因此客戶可以快速輕鬆地遷移他們的工作負載,從而在 Amazon EC2 中獲得最佳性價比。

  • Last but certainly not least, Amazon Advertising continues to grow quickly, representing the significant majority of other revenue, which grew 49% year-over-year in Q3.

    最後但同樣重要的是,亞馬遜廣告繼續快速增長,佔其他收入的絕大部分,第三季度同比增長 49%。

  • We are seeing strong adoption across Amazon vendors, sellers and authors as well as brands that don't sell in our store, particularly as we've built out our streaming TV offerings.

    我們看到亞馬遜供應商、賣家和作者以及不在我們商店銷售的品牌的廣泛採用,特別是在我們建立了流媒體電視產品之後。

  • Of course, advertising only works if we make it useful for customers.

    當然,廣告只有在我們使其對客戶有用時才有效。

  • And when we create great customer experiences, we deliver better outcomes for brands.

    當我們創造出色的客戶體驗時,我們會為品牌帶來更好的成果。

  • The team also recently hosted unBoxed 2021, our annual conference for advertisers and brands, where we shared some of our newest solutions to help companies connect with their customers, measure the impact of their advertising and grow their businesses.

    該團隊最近還舉辦了 unBoxed 2021,這是我們為廣告商和品牌舉辦的年度會議,我們在會上分享了一些最新的解決方案,以幫助公司與客戶建立聯繫、衡量他們的廣告影響並發展他們的業務。

  • As we shift into Q4, we are heads down focused on delivering a great experience for our customers this holiday season.

    隨著我們進入第四季度,我們將專注於在這個假期為我們的客戶提供出色的體驗。

  • We are committed to make the necessary investments in both people and capacity to bring more items in stock and to deliver them quickly to customers.

    我們致力於在人員和能力方面進行必要的投資,以增加庫存并快速交付給客戶。

  • With that, let's move on to Q&A.

    有了這個,讓我們繼續進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Justin Post with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

  • Justin Post - MD

    Justin Post - MD

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Maybe I'll ask about fulfillment capacity.

    也許我會問一下履行能力。

  • You said your capacity is up 2x since before the pandemic and have got units up around 55% on a 2-year basis.

    你說你的產能比大流行之前增加了 2 倍,並且單位在 2 年內增長了 55% 左右。

  • So just wondering, is the capacity needed per unit going up as you speed up delivery times and try to get to 1 day?

    所以只是想知道,隨著您加快交貨時間並嘗試達到 1 天,每單位所需的容量是否會增加?

  • And then second, are you in really good shape for next year?

    其次,你明年的狀態真的很好嗎?

  • And could you be ahead of plan for next year and kind of cut down the investment there?

    你能提前明年的計劃並減少那裡的投資嗎?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Justin, on your first question about whether we, the comparison of doubling the fulfillment capacity to the unit growth.

    賈斯汀,關於你的第一個問題,我們是否將履行能力翻倍與單位增長的比較。

  • Keep in mind also that our fulfillment capacity also includes our transportation delivery capacity.

    還要記住,我們的履行能力還包括我們的運輸能力。

  • And in the last 2 years, we've also greatly ratcheted up our ability to deliver ourselves through AMZL.

    在過去的 2 年中,我們還大大提高了通過 AMZL 交付自己的能力。

  • And our percent of units that we deliver through AMZL is over 50% of our units globally.

    我們通過 AMZL 交付的單位百分比超過我們全球單位的 50%。

  • So that's a big, that's a driver as well.

    所以這是一個很大的,這也是一個驅動程序。

  • I'd also say that while we've been chasing really demand for the last 2 years.

    我還要說,雖然我們在過去 2 年一直在追逐真正的需求。

  • We've been doing it, as I said, we're running at about 100% pretty much all of last year.

    正如我所說,我們一直在這樣做,我們去年幾乎都在以大約 100% 的速度運行。

  • We are just now getting caught up on space for inventory and inventories being brought in to support the holiday.

    我們剛剛開始關注庫存空間和為支持假期而引入的庫存。

  • And if you look year-over-year, while units growth is, as you say, closer to 8% in Q3, the cubic, inventory cube is up closer to 40%, both in North America and internationally.

    如果您按年看,雖然如您所說,第三季度的單位增長接近 8%,但在北美和國際上,立方庫存立方接近 40%。

  • So there's like the second shoe that's dropping of getting the fulfillment centers back in stock, especially for sellers and especially as we head into holiday.

    因此,就像第二隻鞋正在減少讓履行中心恢復庫存,尤其是對於賣家,尤其是在我們進入假期時。

  • So that's, I think that capacity, the amount of space we have for inventory is also going up probably at a higher rate than our unit shipped right now.

    因此,我認為容量,我們擁有的庫存空間量也可能以比我們現在出貨的單位更高的速度增長。

  • Your question about whether it pulls forward from next year.

    你關於它是否從明年開始向前推進的問題。

  • We're not forecasting into next year.

    我們沒有預測到明年。

  • We do see that we will, I mean, we expect growth.

    我們確實看到我們會,我的意思是,我們期待增長。

  • And as I mentioned on the last call, we think that the growth will be suppressed for the 4 quarters that end middle of Q2 next year, just as a comp versus 2020 just because of the 40% growth we saw last year.

    正如我在上次電話會議中提到的那樣,我們認為明年第二季度中期結束的四個季度的增長將受到抑制,就像與 2020 年相比,僅僅因為我們去年看到了 40% 的增長。

  • But we expect the long-term trends to be strong in this business.

    但我們預計該業務的長期趨勢將強勁。

  • We're investing as such.

    我們就是這樣投資的。

  • As I mentioned, the 2-year CAGRs, I do that just so you can kind of judge pre-pandemic versus today.

    正如我提到的,兩年的複合年增長率,我這樣做只是為了讓你可以判斷大流行前與今天。

  • We see strong growth even off of a base of last year, which was strong.

    即使在去年強勁的基礎上,我們也看到了強勁的增長。

  • So we'll see next year on CapEx.

    因此,我們將在明年看到資本支出。

  • And certainly, for the foreseeable future, our capacity constraint is actually labor, which is new and not welcome.

    當然,在可預見的未來,我們的產能限制實際上是勞動力,這是新的,不受歡迎。

  • And that's what we've tried to articulate here today.

    這就是我們今天在這裡試圖表達的內容。

  • And we are hoping that, that rectifies itself through Q4 and into early 2022.

    我們希望這種情況在第四季度和 2022 年初能夠自我糾正。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Two questions.

    兩個問題。

  • First, any color around those international losses in the quarter that was large even by Amazon standards, that $900 million?

    首先,即使按照亞馬遜的標準,該季度的國際損失也很大,即 9 億美元,有什麼顏色嗎?

  • And then secondly, talk about the, you've been spending, so you've doubled the fulfillment capacity, I think, to really kind of catch up to demand, but now I think like you're getting ahead of it.

    其次,談談你一直在花錢,所以我認為你已經將履行能力翻了一番,以真正趕上需求,但現在我認為你已經領先了。

  • And as you roll out, you get close to 1 day promise that you worked up 2 or 3 years ago pre-pandemic and as you start rolling out super same-day delivery or what you call sub-1-day delivery, talk about the incremental demand you think that, that could unlock and to the extent at which you're investing against not only to catch up to demand, but trying to liberate future demand if you get my point?

    當您推出時,您將獲得接近 1 天的承諾,即您在大流行前 2 或 3 年前就工作過,當您開始推出超級當日送達或您所說的不到 1 天送達時,請談談您認為增加的需求,這可以解鎖並達到您投資的程度,不僅是為了趕上需求,而且如果您明白我的觀點,還試圖釋放未來的需求?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I definitely do.

    我肯定會。

  • And I'm glad you brought that up because I didn't include in my last answer.

    我很高興你提出了這個問題,因為我沒有在我的最後一個答案中包括在內。

  • But yes, we have unfinished business on the 1-day promise side.

    但是,是的,我們在 1 天承諾方面還有未完成的工作。

  • We were ramping that up nicely in 2019 and in the first quarter of 2020 before the pandemic.

    我們在 2019 年和大流行之前的 2020 年第一季度很好地提高了這一點。

  • We're still not back to levels that we saw pre-pandemic.

    我們仍然沒有回到大流行前的水平。

  • We're getting closer.

    我們越來越近了。

  • We feel, again, that kind of labor constraints have not helped us close the gap there.

    我們再次感到,這種勞動力限制並沒有幫助我們縮小那裡的差距。

  • But we don't want to be just as good as we were before the pandemic.

    但我們不想像大流行之前一樣好。

  • We expect that to increase in 2022.

    我們預計這一數字將在 2022 年增加。

  • And we're going to plan accordingly.

    我們將相應地進行計劃。

  • And I think you start to see the difference in the growth rate before and after that 1 day.

    而且我認為您開始看到 1 天前後增長率的差異。

  • I won't forecast it too much, but we did see pickup and we saw really that we got into the consideration set for more purchases.

    我不會預測太多,但我們確實看到了回升,我們確實看到我們進入了更多購買的考慮範圍。

  • When something is available in 1 day or less, now you really don't have to go to a store even if you need it very quickly.

    當某樣東西在 1 天或更短的時間內就可以買到時,即使您很快需要它,您現在也真的不必去商店了。

  • So it just opens up more ways for us to serve our customers, especially our Prime customers.

    因此,它只是為我們提供了更多服務客戶的方式,尤其是我們的 Prime 客戶。

  • On your comment about international, yes, you're right, it was a larger loss than in prior quarters.

    關於您對國際的評論,是的,您是對的,這是比前幾個季度更大的損失。

  • In fact, we had flipped to positive operating income through the pandemic.

    事實上,通過大流行,我們已經轉為正營業收入。

  • A lot of that was, again, getting 2 years of volume growth on top of a 1 year or current year cost structure.

    同樣,其中很多是在 1 年或當年的成本結構之上獲得 2 年的銷量增長。

  • There's also a bit of a slowdown just in content and other things, although we're building that, we would have built it at a higher clip.

    僅在內容和其他方面也有一點放緩,儘管我們正在構建它,但我們會以更高的速度構建它。

  • But the long-term trends remain the same in international.

    但國際上的長期趨勢保持不變。

  • It's a group that has very different, we're in different stages in different countries.

    這是一個非常不同的群體,我們在不同的國家處於不同的階段。

  • The established countries of Europe and Japan are further along, obviously, and they perform closer to the North America results.

    顯然,歐洲和日本的老牌國家走得更遠,它們的表現更接近北美的結果。

  • We have new countries.

    我們有新的國家。

  • We've added a lot in the last few years, the investments in Brazil, the Middle East, Australia, adjacent countries of Poland and Sweden within Europe.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們增加了很多,在巴西、中東、澳大利亞、歐洲鄰近國家波蘭和瑞典的投資。

  • So those are all important investments, but they start as an investment, and we build over time.

    所以這些都是重要的投資,但它們從投資開始,我們會隨著時間的推移而建立。

  • And we front-load a lot of Prime benefits in those countries, especially things like video.

    我們在這些國家預先加載了很多 Prime 福利,尤其是像視頻這樣的東西。

  • We find video as a really strong attractor of customers, and it's a gateway to Prime in a lot of those countries.

    我們發現視頻是一個非常強大的客戶吸引力,它是許多這些國家進入 Prime 的門戶。

  • So the model is a bit flipped versus what we saw in North America just because we added video later in the game.

    所以這個模型與我們在北美看到的相比有點顛倒,只是因為我們在遊戲後期添加了視頻。

  • But we like what we see and we see the actual, the hours watched and the percent of Prime members who watch video is actually higher in a lot of the countries, the new countries that we're getting into.

    但我們喜歡我們所看到的,我們看到實際情況、觀看時間和觀看視頻的 Prime 會員百分比實際上在很多國家(我們正在進入的新國家)中更高。

  • So we're, as we said, we're going to make money long term in international.

    因此,正如我們所說,我們將在國際上長期賺錢。

  • Right now, it's a bit of an umbrella that catches a lot of different countries in different stages.

    現在,它有點像一把保護傘,涵蓋了處於不同階段的許多不同國家。

  • We're happy with both the established countries.

    我們對這兩個既定國家感到滿意。

  • They're also seeing, however, the pressures that we're seeing in the United States on labor cost and disruption from supply chains.

    然而,他們也看到了我們在美國看到的勞動力成本和供應鏈中斷方面的壓力。

  • So can't forecast this any further at the segment level, but I just want to give you a little color.

    所以無法在細分級別進一步預測,但我只想給你一點顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Brian, just curious how you fared in pulling holiday shopping earlier thus far this quarter?

    布賴恩,只是想知道本季度到目前為止你在假日購物方面的表現如何?

  • And to what degree can that help ease some of the impact?

    這可以在多大程度上幫助減輕一些影響?

  • And perhaps what did you learn there last year from having Prime Day in 4Q?

    也許你去年從第四季度的 Prime Day 那裡學到了什麼?

  • And then can you just also talk a little bit about the drivers of AWS acceleration and how you think about the margin profile with more contribution from enterprise deals?

    然後您能否談談 AWS 加速的驅動因素,以及您如何看待企業交易貢獻更多的利潤狀況?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Let's start with the holiday shopping.

    讓我們從假日購物開始吧。

  • So yes, you're right.

    所以,是的,你是對的。

  • Last year, as we look back, we used Prime Day to pull a lot of holiday shopping forward.

    去年,當我們回首往事時,我們利用 Prime Day 推動了許多假日購物。

  • And people knew that delivery capacity across all retailers was going to be tight.

    人們知道所有零售商的交付能力都將變得緊張。

  • So it was more distributed through the quarter.

    因此,它在整個季度中分佈得更多。

  • Obviously, that works better for us than to have it all hit in a few concentrated weeks around Cyber Monday and Black Friday and the week before and 2 weeks after.

    顯然,這對我們來說比在網絡星期一和黑色星期五前後的幾週內以及前一周和兩週後集中爆發要好得多。

  • So operationally, it's easier to perform when the volume is spread out.

    所以在操作上,當音量分散時更容易執行。

  • You are seeing a lot of promotional activity from us in October, again, trying to do what we did last year, just pull some demand and get people to buy and buy early.

    你在 10 月份看到了我們的很多促銷活動,再次嘗試做我們去年所做的事情,只是拉動一些需求,讓人們儘早購買和購買。

  • We think that's to their advantage.

    我們認為這對他們有利。

  • Although we're preparing to serve people throughout the whole quarter, we feel we've done a good job of lining up inventory commitments that are larger than normal.

    儘管我們正準備在整個季度為人們提供服務,但我們認為我們在安排比正常情況更大的庫存承諾方面做得很好。

  • We've looked at getting more container capacity.

    我們已經考慮獲得更多的容器容量。

  • We've been successful in that.

    我們在這方面取得了成功。

  • We've accessed new ports and ports of entry into the United States.

    我們已經進入了新的港口和進入美國的港口。

  • So we're doing everything we can, granted it's at a cost penalty in many cases, but we feel good about being able to serve customers this Q4.

    因此,我們正在盡我們所能,儘管在許多情況下會付出代價,但我們對能夠在第四季度為客戶提供服務感到滿意。

  • Love it in October, but we will take it in November and December as well.

    十月喜歡它,但我們也會在十一月和十二月接受它。

  • On AWS, the acceleration, I would, again, I would say that what we're seeing is, again, a lot of customers accelerated their journey to the cloud based on the pandemic.

    在 AWS 上,加速,我想說的是,我們再次看到的是,許多客戶基於大流行加速了他們的雲之旅。

  • Some of their spending was suppressed in 2020.

    他們的一些支出在 2020 年受到抑制。

  • It was different.

    這是不同的。

  • Some companies were booming, Disney, Zoom, Netflix.

    一些公司正在蓬勃發展,迪士尼、Zoom、Netflix。

  • Others that were more travel-related were suppressed in their demand.

    其他更多與旅行相關的需求受到抑制。

  • And I think there's a general level of recovery across a lot of our customer base.

    而且我認為我們的許多客戶群都有一般的恢復水平。

  • We're expanding our customer base into a lot of different areas.

    我們正在將我們的客戶群擴展到許多不同的領域。

  • We'll have new different customers.

    我們會有新的不同客戶。

  • We add many new products.

    我們添加了許多新產品。

  • I highlighted a few of our machine learning products.

    我重點介紹了我們的一些機器學習產品。

  • So we feel really good about the acceleration in growth.

    因此,我們對增長的加速感覺非常好。

  • We know there was some suppression last year, but the growth last year was still in the 28% to 32% or excuse me, 28% to 33% range on an FX-neutral basis through most of the year.

    我們知道去年有一些抑制,但去年的增長仍然在 28% 到 32% 之間,或者對不起,在 28% 到 33% 的範圍內,在一年中的大部分時間裡,在外匯中性的基礎上。

  • On the margin side, the margins are going to be, they're always going to fluctuate over time.

    在邊際方面,邊際將是,它們總是會隨著時間的推移而波動。

  • There's a lot of moving parts.

    有很多活動部件。

  • There's a lot of extensions of contracts and long-term commitments, which are great for our business and great for customers.

    有很多合同延期和長期承諾,這對我們的業務和客戶都有好處。

  • So there's negotiated long-term deals.

    所以有談判的長期交易。

  • There's also a lot of investment in new capacity and new regions to service high usage.

    在新容量和新區域上也進行了大量投資,以服務於高使用率。

  • We're certainly adding, continuing to add to our sales force and marketing teams.

    我們肯定會增加,繼續增加我們的銷售隊伍和營銷團隊。

  • And then the counterbalance on that is how well we run our data centers, what efficiencies we get, what cost reductions we get.

    然後與之相抗衡的是我們運行數據中心的能力,我們獲得的效率,我們獲得的成本降低。

  • So it's always going to be varying.

    所以它總是會變化的。

  • We like where we are and will not forecast forward.

    我們喜歡我們現在的位置,不會向前預測。

  • But again, they're apt to change, but we're working hard to keep them high and while passing through benefits and efficiencies to customers in lower pricing.

    但同樣,它們很容易發生變化,但我們正在努力保持它們的高水平,同時以較低的價格將好處和效率傳遞給客戶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。

  • Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

    Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

  • I have 2, Brian.

    我有 2 個,布賴恩。

  • The first one, I wanted to kind of ask a big picture question about the retail business.

    第一個,我想問一個關於零售業務的大問題。

  • I know there's a lot of extra costs sort of moving through the system now.

    我知道現在有很多額外的成本通過系統轉移。

  • But maybe can you just talk to us big picture about any changes or factors that have changed the company's view about the long-term profitability, the long-term return on invested capital of the retail business now as opposed to at the end of 2019.

    但也許你能不能和我們談談改變公司對長期盈利能力的看法的任何變化或因素,以及現在與 2019 年底相比,零售業務的長期投資資本回報率。

  • And then the second one is on the physical stores.

    然後第二個是在實體店。

  • You have quite a few different formats and experiments going on in the physical stores.

    你在實體店裡有很多不同的格式和實驗。

  • Talk to us about areas where you've seen sort of the most positive results from physical stores, where you're pleased as opposed to areas where you still see room for improvement in the physical store strategy.

    與我們討論您從實體店中看到最積極成果的領域,與您仍然認為實體店策略有改進空間的領域相比,您對此感到滿意。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Let me start with your comment on the, we'll call it the core retail business.

    讓我從您對我們的評論開始,我們將其稱為核心零售業務。

  • We're very bullish on the retail business.

    我們非常看好零售業務。

  • In fact, it's impossible and not productive to even try and separate advertising from third party from retail.

    事實上,甚至嘗試將來自第三方的廣告與零售分開是不可能的,也沒有成效。

  • It's all, to us, part of a flywheel where we service customers.

    對我們來說,這一切都是我們為客戶服務的飛輪的一部分。

  • We do it in an efficient way, and we earn their trust and earn their future business, and we fight that battle every day.

    我們以有效的方式做到這一點,我們贏得了他們的信任並贏得了他們的未來業務,我們每天都在戰鬥。

  • And we look to expand the Prime program to build that flywheel.

    我們希望擴展 Prime 計劃以製造該飛輪。

  • We look to add new products and services like grocery and video and music and the list is long.

    我們希望增加新的產品和服務,比如雜貨、視頻和音樂,而且名單很長。

  • So when you look at retail, it's certainly expensive right now, especially with the costs I've laid out in Q3 and Q4 for us to service that business.

    因此,當您查看零售時,現在肯定很昂貴,尤其是考慮到我在第三季度和第四季度為我們提供服務的成本。

  • However, we have other monetization vehicles, including advertising, that if we do well become a benefit to customers and to advertisers at the same time.

    但是,我們還有其他貨幣化工具,包括廣告,如果我們做得好,同時對客戶和廣告商都有好處。

  • That's what we work on.

    這就是我們的工作。

  • So that is an important part of our profitability structure.

    因此,這是我們盈利結構的重要組成部分。

  • It's tied directly to happy customers and customers who are engaged in buying things.

    它直接與滿意的客戶和參與購物的客戶聯繫在一起。

  • So we don't separate those 2. We do for some reasons.

    所以我們不會將這兩個分開。我們這樣做是出於某些原因。

  • We want to make sure that we're understanding where our cost and where our profits happen to be, but we do realize it's all part of the same customer offering.

    我們希望確保我們了解我們的成本和利潤恰好在哪裡,但我們確實意識到這都是同一個客戶產品的一部分。

  • And we like the return on investment flywheel.

    我們喜歡投資飛輪的回報。

  • We do.

    我們的確是。

  • I get to see investments in warehouses, trucking programs, new offerings that we do, new country expansion.

    我看到了對倉庫、貨運計劃、我們所做的新產品、新的國家擴張的投資。

  • We segment those as much as we can into discrete decisions.

    我們盡可能地將這些劃分為離散的決策。

  • And then we track them and make sure that not only are we delighting customers, we're delighting shareholders in the long term.

    然後我們跟踪他們,確保我們不僅取悅客戶,而且長期取悅股東。

  • So we feel good about that.

    所以我們對此感覺很好。

  • Certainly, the cost of fulfillment in the last few months and what we've forecast into the next quarter are not what we're happy about.

    當然,過去幾個月的履行成本以及我們對下一季度的預測並不是我們感到高興的。

  • But we see ourselves as the shock absorber absorbing a lot of the costs so that the customer is not impacted and sellers are not impacted.

    但我們將自己視為吸收大量成本的減震器,因此客戶不會受到影響,賣家也不會受到影響。

  • And again, there's just quite limited options in the short run to impact your cost structure.

    同樣,在短期內影響您的成本結構的選擇非常有限。

  • Most companies would delay shipment or add fees or something.

    大多數公司會延遲發貨或增加費用等。

  • We don't think that is customer-centric nor productive.

    我們認為這既不是以客戶為中心,也不是富有成效的。

  • And we will get through this period and then we are committed to getting our cost structure down.

    我們將度過這段時期,然後我們致力於降低我們的成本結構。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • And Brian, on that second question around the physical store strategy.

    還有布賴恩,關於實體店戰略的第二個問題。

  • Of course, we have a number of different brands and store types, Whole Foods being the largest that's got over 500 locations.

    當然,我們有許多不同的品牌和商店類型,Whole Foods 是最大的,擁有 500 多個地點。

  • We've got Amazon 4-Star, Amazon Books, the Fresh grocery stores, Amazon Go and Amazon Pop Ups.

    我們有 Amazon 4-Star、Amazon Books、Fresh 雜貨店、Amazon Go 和 Amazon Pop Ups。

  • And each one, of course, has a name and the types of products they offer has its own differences.

    當然,每一個都有一個名稱,他們提供的產品類型也有其自身的差異。

  • But I think when you step back, we've said that we want options for customers to be able to shop online and in-store.

    但我認為當你退後一步時,我們已經說過我們希望客戶能夠選擇能夠在線和店內購物。

  • And I think you're seeing that probably most predominantly with the grocery offerings and the Whole Foods footprint that we've got out there.

    而且我認為你看到的可能主要是雜貨產品和我們在那裡的 Whole Foods 足跡。

  • And we want to give customers choice and offer them the combination of doing that online and in-store option, whatever works best.

    我們希望為客戶提供選擇,並為他們提供在線和店內選擇的組合,無論哪種效果最好。

  • And the goal around this is really raise the bar for what customers can expect with this omnichannel experience.

    圍繞這一點的目標是真正提高客戶對這種全渠道體驗的期望。

  • So we like the hybrid model and we're working on continuing to evolve on a lot of sort of interesting in-store experiences that will resonate with customers.

    所以我們喜歡混合模式,我們正在努力繼續發展許多有趣的店內體驗,這些體驗會引起客戶的共鳴。

  • We know that customers like to have a choice to be able to do that.

    我們知道客戶喜歡有選擇權來做到這一點。

  • So some of the things that we continue to be excited about and do a lot to work on are things like the Just Walk Out technology that's been in our Amazon Go stores and has now moved into some of our Amazon Fresh stores, just really eliminates, again, one of those things that people may not realize is such a hassle or a deterrent to shopping, waiting in line and eliminating something that's really been positively received by customers as they use that technology.

    因此,我們繼續對一些事情感到興奮並做了大量工作,比如我們的 Amazon Go 商店中的 Just Walk Out 技術,現在已經進入我們的一些 Amazon Fresh 商店,真的消除了,再說一次,人們可能沒有意識到的其中一件事是購物、排隊等候以及消除客戶在使用該技術時真正積極接受的東西的麻煩或威懾力。

  • Another one, just as you enter these stores, there's technology we have now in a little over 70 of our physical retail stores.

    另一個,當你進入這些商店時,我們現在在 70 多家實體零售店中擁有技術。

  • That's Amazon One, which is a contactless way for folks to enter stores using their palm to identify.

    那就是 Amazon One,這是一種非接觸式的方式,人們可以使用手掌進行識別,從而進入商店。

  • So that's in, as I said, retail stores and Whole Foods stores.

    正如我所說,這就是零售店和全食超市。

  • And so keep looking for us to roll that out.

    因此,請繼續尋找我們將其推出。

  • And I'd say, with these technologies, too, there's opportunities beyond the Amazon physical store footprints that I mentioned.

    而且我想說,有了這些技術,除了我提到的亞馬遜實體店足蹟之外,還有很多機會。

  • You're starting to see Just Walk Out going in sports and kind of large arena type environments.

    你開始看到 Just Walk Out 在運動和大型競技場類型的環境中出現。

  • And Amazon One is at some good locations.

    亞馬遜一號位於一些不錯的位置。

  • And both those technologies, I'm excited to employ them in Climate Pledge Arena here in Seattle.

    這兩種技術,我很高興能在西雅圖的氣候承諾競技場中使用它們。

  • So look for us to keep iterating on those and finding other new innovative ways for customers to enjoy a unique shopping experience.

    因此,請期待我們不斷迭代這些內容,並尋找其他新的創新方式,讓客戶享受獨特的購物體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Maybe if I can come back to 2 on the Q4 cost structure.

    也許如果我能回到第四季度成本結構上的第 2 點。

  • Just in terms of framing it almost against a year ago period, could you talk a little bit about the $4 billion of COVID costs from a year ago, the elements of EBIT contribution from things like AWS and third party in advertising and maybe help investors better understand the bridge between some of the elements of headwinds to profitability in Q4 versus Q4 a year ago.

    就與一年前的情況相比,您能否談談一年前 40 億美元的 COVID 成本、AWS 和第三方在廣告中的 EBIT 貢獻的要素,也許可以更好地幫助投資者了解第四季度與一年前第四季度的盈利能力的一些不利因素之間的橋樑。

  • Appreciate all the comments upfront, then if we could just go a little bit deeper.

    預先感謝所有評論,然後如果我們可以更深入一點。

  • And then of the costs you're incurring late Q3 into Q4, how should investors think about a permanent nature to that cost structure versus a transient nature of the cost structure, either as an output of the macro environment or the unit environment in Q4?

    然後你在第三季度末到第四季度產生的成本,投資者應該如何考慮該成本結構的永久性質與成本結構的短暫性質,無論是作為宏觀環境的輸出還是第四季度的單位環境?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Eric, for your questions.

    謝謝,埃里克,你的問題。

  • I'll just start with the second one.

    我將從第二個開始。

  • So how should we think about the cost permanence?

    那麼我們應該如何考慮成本持久性呢?

  • Certainly, on the labor front there, we estimated about half of the cost is permanent base wage.

    當然,在勞動力方面,我們估計大約一半的成本是永久基本工資。

  • The other half is in incentives that we currently offer to attract workers.

    另一半是我們目前為吸引工人而提供的激勵措施。

  • We're going to have to see.

    我們將不得不看到。

  • I think we are going to have to adjust and work to lower our cost going forward, especially on things that we procure that may have gone up in price in the last few months.

    我認為我們將不得不調整併努力降低我們未來的成本,特別是在我們採購的過去幾個月價格可能上漲的東西上。

  • Mostly what I'm talking about is kind of third party, things like trucking and steel for fulfillment center construction.

    我所說的主要是第三方,比如用於履行中心建設的卡車運輸和鋼材。

  • So we will be working on our cost structure for a while.

    因此,我們將在一段時間內研究我們的成本結構。

  • If you're trying to do the bridge for Q4 year-over-year, a couple of things I would say.

    如果你想為第四季度的年同比做橋樑,我會說幾件事。

  • Yes, the COVID costs are lower by $1.5 billion versus last year.

    是的,與去年相比,COVID 成本降低了 15 億美元。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Q3, yes?

    Q3,是嗎?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • If you're Q4, excuse me, the $4 billion is going to be pure variance year-over-year.

    如果你是第四季度,對不起,40 億美元將是純粹的同比差異。

  • That's what we've identified, $2 billion roughly of labor inflation and $2 billion of operational disruption mostly through higher transportation costs.

    這就是我們所確定的,大約 20 億美元的勞動力通脹和 20 億美元的運營中斷,主要是由於運輸成本的增加。

  • There are a couple of other items year-over-year.

    與去年同期相比,還有其他一些項目。

  • If you remember, last year, we were running at nearly 100% of capacity.

    如果您還記得,去年,我們幾乎以 100% 的容量運行。

  • That's not the ideal for us, but it has the benefit of being highly leveraged and can have other costs, but it's highly leveraged mathematically on a cost per unit shipped.

    這對我們來說不是理想的,但它具有高度槓桿化的好處,並且可能有其他成本,但它在數學上高度槓桿化了每單位發貨的成本。

  • As we get more into a normal buffer so that we can handle swings in volumes, especially as we get closer to holiday cutoffs, we generally run with more slack in the system.

    隨著我們更多地進入正常緩衝區以便我們可以處理交易量的波動,特別是當我們接近假期截止時,我們通常在系統中運行更多的鬆弛。

  • And we're in the good fortune of returning to maybe a more normal profile in space this Q4.

    而且我們很幸運能夠在這個第四季度恢復到可能在太空中更正常的形象。

  • The issue is again on labor.

    問題又是關於勞動力的。

  • So there's that.

    所以就是這樣。

  • There's the increased cost in digital content, combination of video, games, music, audible.

    數字內容、視頻、遊戲、音樂、音頻的組合成本增加。

  • So some rather large items year-over-year.

    所以一些相當大的項目年復一年。

  • Haven't given you a complete bridge, but that's what we're seeing.

    還沒有給你一個完整的橋樑,但這就是我們所看到的。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think that's right, $4 billion, the items you mentioned, $1 billion higher in content.

    我認為這是對的,40 億美元,你提到的項目,10 億美元的內容。

  • Marketing costs, they were suppressed last year for much of the year and you're starting to see those grow throughout 2021.

    營銷成本,去年大部分時間都受到抑制,你開始看到這些成本在整個 2021 年都在增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Dan Salmon。

  • Daniel Salmon - Analyst

    Daniel Salmon - Analyst

  • I have 2 questions.

    我有 2 個問題。

  • First, you mentioned growing customers' use of Prime, more original programming coming and the services you offer continuing to expand.

    首先,您提到客戶對 Prime 的使用越來越多,更多原創節目即將推出,您提供的服務也在不斷擴展。

  • Do you see this demand, this new content, the new services having expanded to a point where a price increase for the Prime subscription begins to make sense?

    您是否看到這種需求、這種新內容、新服務已經擴展到 Prime 訂閱價格上漲開始有意義的地步?

  • And then second, you mentioned the unBoxed event earlier this week.

    其次,您在本週早些時候提到了 unBoxed 事件。

  • A number of new ad products announced there.

    那裡宣布了一些新的廣告產品。

  • Which among them do you expect to be most impactful to the overall advertising business?

    您認為其中哪一個對整個廣告業務的影響最大?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Dan.

    謝謝,丹。

  • I'm going to start with the first question on Prime.

    我將從關於 Prime 的第一個問題開始。

  • So yes, we're very excited about the current programming that's coming out in the back end of this year and also the prospect for 2022.

    所以,是的,我們對今年年底推出的當前節目以及 2022 年的前景感到非常興奮。

  • We think it's a real step-up in options and quality and volume for our customers globally on the video side.

    我們認為,在視頻方面,我們的全球客戶在選擇、質量和數量方面都取得了真正的進步。

  • I'm very excited about it.

    我對此感到非常興奮。

  • And you're right, it does have a lot of value.

    你是對的,它確實有很大的價值。

  • I have nothing to discuss or announce around Prime price increases, but we always look at that.

    關於 Prime 價格上漲,我沒有什麼可討論或宣布的,但我們總是關注這一點。

  • We look at the value.

    我們看價值。

  • It's generally a country-by-country discussion.

    這通常是逐個國家的討論。

  • We look at the value we've built.

    我們著眼於我們建立的價值。

  • We look at the time since our last price increase.

    我們查看自上次價格上漲以來的時間。

  • There's a lot of strategic factors involved, obviously.

    顯然,其中涉及很多戰略因素。

  • But the main job is to build the value of Prime, and that's what we work on and video's a big part of that.

    但主要工作是建立 Prime 的價值,這就是我們的工作,視頻是其中的重要組成部分。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And Dan, on the second piece for advertising, I think we still see there's a lot of opportunity in the biggest kind of bucket, if you will, of the current advertising revenue run rate, and that's in the sponsored activity that we're able to offer up to customers, continuing to find ways to just measure that information and be able to surface it credibly and quickly and improve on that for advertisers out there.

    丹,關於廣告的第二部分,我認為我們仍然看到,如果你願意的話,目前的廣告收入運行率在最大的桶中存在很多機會,那就是我們能夠贊助的活動提供給客戶,繼續尋找方法來衡量這些信息,並能夠可靠、快速地展示它,並為那裡的廣告商改進這些信息。

  • So a lot of work, I think, still being done on the team there and being able to add value for customers.

    所以我認為,很多工作仍在團隊中完成,並且能夠為客戶增加價值。

  • I'd point to, there's a lot of excitement in the video advertising area.

    我要指出的是,視頻廣告領域有很多令人興奮的地方。

  • I know we've talked about that in the past.

    我知道我們過去曾討論過這個問題。

  • It's growing quickly.

    它正在迅速增長。

  • It's not the biggest piece of that run rate that you see in there but growing well.

    這不是您在那裡看到的最大運行速度,但增長良好。

  • And I think just the technology, we're able to develop some of the relationships that we've been able to foster with things like live sports, the opportunities with the Fire TV device and the video community and where we can reach folks through those areas is really exciting.

    而且我認為只是技術,我們能夠發展一些我們已經能夠培養的關係,比如體育直播、Fire TV 設備和視頻社區的機會,以及我們可以通過這些聯繫到人們的地方領域真的很令人興奮。

  • IMDb TV, our ad-supported channel, continues to do really well.

    我們的廣告支持頻道 IMDb TV 繼續表現出色。

  • People really enjoy that.

    人們真的很享受。

  • We recently expanded that beyond the U.S. for the first time to the U.K. So a lot of really good and interesting ideas and a lot of opportunities to grow in different ways with video.

    我們最近首次將其擴展到美國以外的英國。因此,有很多非常好的和有趣的想法,以及很多通過視頻以不同方式成長的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的羅斯桑德勒。

  • Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst

    Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst

  • Just 2 for me.

    對我來說只有2個。

  • So you guys are always kind of beating the rest of e-commerce on speed of delivery across a wide set of SKUs.

    因此,你們在各種 SKU 的交付速度上總是擊敗其他電子商務公司。

  • But there's a bunch of these new companies cropping up that are wiring up speedy, same-day delivery for a lot of products from either their own warehouse or from various other retailers.

    但是,這些新公司湧現出很多,它們正在為他們自己的倉庫或其他各種零售商的許多產品提供快速、當日交貨的服務。

  • Do you view that as a threat?

    你認為這是一種威脅嗎?

  • And you have a same-day offering in 15 cities.

    而且您在 15 個城市有當日供品。

  • Does your same-day leverage kind of your existing fulfillment center footprint or do you have to kind of rethink the approach to get the speed down to that 30-minute window or wherever it's going to go?

    您的當天是否會利用您現有的履行中心足跡,或者您是否必須重新考慮將速度降低到 30 分鐘窗口或任何地方的方法?

  • And the second question is just New World was a huge hit.

    第二個問題是新世界是一個巨大的打擊。

  • So just any thoughts high level on the overall strategy within gaming.

    因此,只要對遊戲中的整體策略有任何高層次的想法。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll take the second question first related to games.

    我將首先回答與遊戲有關的第二個問題。

  • So yes, I think, as we mentioned at the top, really excited to get New World out there to more customers' hands and saw some really good momentum and engagement coming out of the gate with customers there on some of the offerings like the Steam platform and Twitch as well.

    所以,是的,我認為,正如我們在頂部提到的那樣,我很高興能將 New World 帶到更多客戶的手中,並看到一些非常好的勢頭和與客戶在 Steam 等產品上的互動平台和 Twitch 也是如此。

  • But if you step back, I think, look, we've said for a while now that gaming is obviously one of the fastest-growing industries in the entertainment space.

    但如果你退後一步,我想,看,我們已經說過一段時間了,遊戲顯然是娛樂領域增長最快的行業之一。

  • And we find and see a number of different ways to be able to offer some folks a variety of services.

    我們發現並看到了許多不同的方式可以為一些人提供各種服務。

  • So we develop and publish games for customers through Amazon Games, which developed that New World.

    因此,我們通過開發新世界的 Amazon Games 為客戶開發和發布遊戲。

  • We're also leveraging the flywheel, the Amazon flywheel of offering some exclusive and free content as part of Prime Gaming, so it's part of Prime benefits.

    我們還利用飛輪,亞馬遜飛輪提供一些獨家和免費內容作為 Prime Gaming 的一部分,因此它是 Prime 福利的一部分。

  • You got AWS and utilizing AWS servers to stream games with our Luna, Amazon Luna offering.

    您擁有 AWS 並利用 AWS 服務器通過我們的 Luna、Amazon Luna 產品流式傳輸遊戲。

  • And then as I mentioned before, building this large, engaged, passionate gaming community online with Twitch.

    然後正如我之前提到的,使用 Twitch 建立這個大型、參與度高、充滿激情的在線遊戲社區。

  • So again, kind of to my point about a lot of really interesting ideas when we're talking about video in the advertising space.

    再說一次,當我們談論廣告領域的視頻時,我的觀點是很多非常有趣的想法。

  • It's a lot of different areas that can interrelate, serve different communities within the gaming area.

    許多不同的領域可以相互關聯,為遊戲領域內的不同社區服務。

  • And so we're going to keep working on that, keep building and listening to customers on the games we've launched and keep pushing forward with an exciting slate in the future.

    因此,我們將繼續努力,繼續構建和傾聽客戶對我們推出的遊戲的看法,並在未來繼續推進令人興奮的計劃。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • And then your first question on what I'll call ultrafast delivery and other options in the market, we like our model.

    然後你的第一個問題是關於我所說的超快速交付和市場上的其他選擇,我們喜歡我們的模型。

  • It's a rapidly evolving space.

    這是一個快速發展的空間。

  • And obviously, we're customer-obsessed, but we also are competitor aware.

    顯然,我們痴迷於客戶,但我們也意識到競爭對手。

  • We like the business that we have.

    我們喜歡我們擁有的業務。

  • We have over 170,000 products that customers, Prime customers can get within 2 hours from Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods Market and other stores that participate with us in over 5,000 cities and towns.

    我們擁有超過 170,000 種產品,客戶和 Prime 客戶可以在 2 小時內從 Amazon Fresh、Whole Foods Market 和其他與我們合作的商店在 5,000 多個城鎮獲得。

  • So we're well on our way to providing ultrafast delivery for things that require ultrafast or things like groceries and others.

    因此,我們正在為需要超快速度的物品或雜貨等物品提供超快遞送服務。

  • And we see that expanding.

    我們看到這種情況正在擴大。

  • But there'll be room for multiple winners in the space.

    但該領域將有多個獲勝者的空間。

  • And as we say, you have to have a cost structure and a logistics network that will pay for the delivery over time.

    正如我們所說,您必須有一個成本結構和一個物流網絡,以便隨著時間的推移支付交付費用。

  • So we see it as part of an offering that we offer to customers that ranges from 2 days to 1 day to 2 hours or 1 hour in some cases.

    因此,我們將其視為我們向客戶提供的產品的一部分,其範圍從 2 天到 1 天到 2 小時或在某些情況下為 1 小時。

  • So we like to meet customers where they are and when they need things, and we're working on speed consistently.

    因此,我們喜歡在客戶需要的時間和地點與他們會面,並且我們一直致力於提高速度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

  • Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

    Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

  • On the advertising business, I'm curious, given some of the concerns in the supply chain, have you seen a pullback on the ad side so far or is that something that you're factoring in for the fourth quarter?

    關於廣告業務,我很好奇,鑑於供應鏈中的一些擔憂,到目前為止,您是否看到廣告方面的回落,或者這是您在第四季度考慮的因素?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • No.

    不。

  • We're actually, again, we're seeing strong growth.

    實際上,我們再次看到強勁的增長。

  • Obviously, Prime Day is always a really great advertising event as well.

    顯然,Prime Day 也是一個非常棒的廣告活動。

  • And then you saw a little bit of that in Q2 when we had Prime Day in Q2 this year, and we're lapping Prime Day from Q4 of last year.

    然後你在第二季度看到了一點,今年我們在第二季度舉辦了 Prime 會員日,我們從去年第四季度開始享受 Prime 會員日。

  • So there might be comparable issues, but as far as the strength of the offering and the differential between the growth of the advertising business versus the unit growth, we think we're really resonating with advertisers.

    因此可能存在類似的問題,但就產品的實力以及廣告業務增長與單位增長之間的差異而言,我們認為我們確實與廣告商產生了共鳴。

  • Working on new products, new ways to advertise, new ways to highlight their brands.

    致力於新產品,新的廣告方式,新的方式來突出他們的品牌。

  • It's resonating with sellers as well for the same reasons.

    出於同樣的原因,它也引起了賣家的共鳴。

  • And we feel it's additive to the customer experience.

    我們認為它可以增加客戶體驗。

  • It helps customers find curated selection and also see brands that they may not have otherwise seen.

    它可以幫助客戶找到精心挑選的選擇,還可以看到他們可能沒有看到的品牌。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Thanks for joining us today on the call and for your questions.

    感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議並提出您的問題。

  • A replay will be available on our Investor Relations website for at least 3 months.

    重播將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供至少 3 個月。

  • We appreciate your interest in Amazon, and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

    感謝您對亞馬遜的興趣,我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。