亞馬遜 (AMZN) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by.

    謝謝你的支持。

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Amazon.com Q3 2021 Financial Results Teleconference.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Amazon.com 2021 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)今天的通話正在錄音。

  • For opening remarks, I will be turning the call over to Director of Investor Relations, Dave Fildes.

    作為開場白,我將把電話轉給投資者關係總監戴夫·菲爾德斯 (Dave Fildes)。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Hello, and welcome to our Q3 2021 financial results conference call.

    您好,歡迎參加我們的 2021 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

  • Joining us today to answer your questions is Brian Olsavsky, our CFO.

    我們的財務長 Brian Olsavsky 今天將與我們一起回答您的問題。

  • As you listen to today's conference call, we encourage you to have our press release in front of you, which includes our financial results as well as metrics and commentary on the quarter.

    當您收聽今天的電話會議時,我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的新聞稿,其中包括我們的財務表現以及本季度的指標和評論。

  • Please note, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons in this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2020.

    請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中的所有比較都將與我們 2020 年同期的結果進行比較。

  • Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today, October 28, 2021 only and will include forward-looking statements.

    我們對您問題的評論和答案僅反映截至今天(2021 年 10 月 28 日)管理層的觀點,並將包含前瞻性陳述。

  • Actual results may differ materially.

    實際結果可能存在重大差異。

  • Additional information about factors that could potentially impact our financial results is included in today's press release and our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

    有關可能影響我們財務表現的因素的更多資​​訊包含在今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中,包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告和後續文件。

  • During this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release, slides accompanying this webcast and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our IR website.

    在本次電話會議期間,我們可能會在我們的新聞稿、本次網路廣播隨附的幻燈片以及我們向SEC 提交的文件中討論某些非GAAP 財務措施,這些文件均發佈在我們的IR 網站上。

  • You will find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures with comparable GAAP measures.

    您會發現有關這些非公認會計原則衡量標準的其他揭露,包括這些衡量標準與可比較公認會計原則衡量標準的調節。

  • Our guidance incorporates the order trends that we've seen to date and what we believe today to be appropriate assumptions.

    我們的指導結合了迄今為止我們所看到的訂單趨勢以及我們今天認為適當的假設。

  • Our results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and customer demand and spending, labor market and global supply chain constraints, world events, the rate of growth of the Internet, online commerce and cloud services and the various factors detailed in our filings with the SEC.

    我們的結果本質上是不可預測的,可能會受到許多因素的重大影響,包括外匯匯率波動、全球經濟狀況以及客戶需求和支出的變化、勞動力市場和全球供應鏈限制、世界事件、互聯網的增長率、線上商務和雲端服務以及我們向SEC 提交的文件中詳細說明的各種因素。

  • This guidance also reflects our estimates to date regarding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our operations, including those discussed in our filings with the SEC.

    本指引也反映了我們迄今為止對 COVID-19 大流行對我們營運的影響的估計,包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件中討論的影響。

  • Our guidance also assumes, among other things, that we don't conclude any additional business acquisitions, restructurings or legal settlements.

    除此之外,我們的指導還假設我們不會達成任何額外的業務收購、重組或法律和解。

  • It's not possible to accurately predict demand for our goods and services, and therefore, our actual results could differ materially from our guidance.

    無法準確預測我們的商品和服務的需求,因此,我們的實際結果可能與我們的指導有重大差異。

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

    現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you for joining us today.

    感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Let me first start by reiterating and expanding on a few comments that Andy made in our earnings release.

    讓我先重申並擴展安迪在我們的財報發布中發表的一些評論。

  • We are now reporting our results for the seventh quarter since the pandemic began, and we are especially proud of our employees, for both their response to the unprecedented customer demand we have experienced as well as for their implementation of many safety procedures to create a safe work environment.

    我們現在報告自大流行開始以來第七季度的業績,我們特別為我們的員工感到自豪,因為他們對我們經歷過的前所未有的客戶需求做出了反應,並實施了許多安全程序,以創造一個安全的環境。

  • During this period, we have continued to earn the trust of our customers, especially our Prime members, who have increased their annual purchases and their use of Prime benefits over the last 20 months.

    在此期間,我們繼續贏得客戶的信任,尤其是我們的 Prime 會員,他們在過去 20 個月中增加了年度購買量和 Prime 福利的使用量。

  • We've also seen strong growth in our advertising products as vendors and sellers have embraced their ability to build their brands and to reach customers just as they are considering their purchases.

    我們也看到我們的廣告產品強勁成長,因為供應商和賣家已經意識到他們有能力建立自己的品牌,並在客戶考慮購買時接觸到他們。

  • And AWS has seen a reacceleration of revenue growth as customers have expanded their commitment to the cloud and selected AWS as their cloud partner.

    隨著客戶擴大對雲端的承諾並選擇 AWS 作為他們的雲端合作夥伴,AWS 的營收成長再次加速。

  • As a result, Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth rate in the low 20% range.

    因此,亞馬遜第三季營收為 1,108 億美元,兩年複合年增長率為 25%,而疫情前的成長率僅為 20%。

  • We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us.

    我們感謝客戶對我們的信任。

  • However, there certainly have been challenges to overcome since February of last year.

    然而,自去年二月以來,確實存在一些需要克服的挑戰。

  • We've nearly doubled our operations capacity in the past 2 years to keep up with the customer demand.

    在過去的兩年裡,我們的營運能力幾乎增加了一倍,以滿足客戶的需求。

  • We've incurred billions of dollars in additional costs to keep our employees safe and to support testing and other COVID-related costs.

    為了確保員工的安全並支援檢測和其他與新冠病毒相關的費用,我們已經支付了數十億美元的額外費用。

  • And we have grown our global headcount by 628,000 employees in the past 18 months and are recruiting for more, including more than 150,000 in the U.S. to support Q4 seasonal demand.

    過去 18 個月,我們的全球員工數量增加了 628,000 名,並且正在招聘更多員工,其中包括在美國招聘超過 150,000 名員工,以支持第四季度的季節性需求。

  • The demand for labor has recently coincided with the shortage of available workers, particularly in the United States.

    最近,對勞動力的需求與可用工人的短缺同時發生,特別是在美國。

  • This began in Q2, but it really started to impact our operations and cost structure in Q3.

    這從第二季開始,但它真正開始影響我們的營運和成本結構是在第三季。

  • It has led to wage increases and sign-on incentives as companies compete for workers as well as inconsistent staffing levels in our operations.

    隨著公司爭奪工人以及我們營運中的人員配置水準不一致,這導致了工資上漲和簽約激勵措施。

  • In addition, disruption to the global supply chains and inflation in the cost of materials such as steel and services such as trucking have also raised our cost of operations.

    此外,全球供應鏈的中斷以及鋼鐵等材料和卡車運輸等服務成本的上漲也提高了我們的營運成本。

  • We estimate the cost of labor, labor-related productivity losses and cost inflation to have added approximately $2 billion in operating cost in Q3, particularly in August and September.

    我們估計,勞動成本、與勞動力相關的生產力損失和成本通膨將在第三季(尤其是 8 月和 9 月)增加約 20 億美元的營運成本。

  • Our Q4 guidance range anticipates that these costs will approach $4 billion in Q4 as we see a full quarter's impact of these effects and a higher seasonal unit volume.

    我們的第四季度指導範圍預計這些成本將在第四季度接近 40 億美元,因為我們看到這些影響對整個季度的影響以及更高的季節性單位銷售。

  • Specifically in Q3, we saw nearly $1 billion of inflationary pressures, primarily tied to wage increases and incentives in our operations.

    特別是在第三季度,我們看到了近 10 億美元的通膨壓力,主要與薪資上漲和營運激勵措施有關。

  • Our average starting wage is now over $18 per hour with an additional $3 per hour depending on shifts in many locations and sign-on bonuses that can be up to $3,000.

    我們的平均起薪現在超過每小時 18 美元,根據許多地點的輪班情況,每小時可額外增加 3 美元,入職獎金最高可達 3,000 美元。

  • In addition, we saw inflationary pressures in raw materials and services, as I mentioned, particularly in steel and third-party trucking.

    此外,正如我所提到的,我們也看到原物料和服務領域的通膨壓力,特別是鋼鐵和第三方卡車運輸領域。

  • We also saw over $1 billion of costs tied to lost productivity and disruption in our operations.

    我們還發現與生產力損失和營運中斷相關的成本超過 10 億美元。

  • In Q3, labor became our primary capacity constraint, not storage space or fulfillment capacity.

    在第三季度,勞動力成為我們的主要產能限制,而不是儲存空間或履行能力。

  • As a result, inventory placement was frequently redirected to fulfillment centers that had the labor to receive the products.

    因此,庫存放置經常被重新導向到有勞動力接收產品的履行中心。

  • This resulted in less optimal placement, which leads to longer and more expensive transportation routes.

    這導致了不太理想的佈局,從而導致運輸路線更長且更昂貴。

  • In short, our operations are normally well staffed and optimized to be in stock and to deliver to customers in 1 to 2 days.

    簡而言之,我們的營運通常配備充足的人員並進行最佳化,以備有庫存並在 1 至 2 天內交付給客戶。

  • Labor shortages and supply chain disruptions upset this balance and resulted in additional costs to ensure that we continue to maintain our service levels to customers.

    勞動力短缺和供應鏈中斷破壞了這種平衡,並導致額外成本,以確保我們繼續維持對客戶的服務水準。

  • As you look to Q4, we've incorporated this nearly $4 billion of added costs into our operating income guidance range.

    展望第四季度,我們已將這近 40 億美元的增加成本納入我們的營業收入指引範圍。

  • In addition, we have a nearly $1 billion year-over-year increase in Q4 for spend to support our digital media content efforts, including video, music and games.

    此外,我們第四季度的支出比去年同期增加了近 10 億美元,用於支援我們的數位媒體內容工作,包括影片、音樂和遊戲。

  • We recently launched New World, a multiplayer online PC game, and we're delighted with the response and engagement.

    我們最近推出了多人線上 PC 遊戲《新世界》,我們對反應和參與感到非常滿意。

  • New World has become the highest-played new game this year on Steam.

    《新世界》已成為今年 Steam 上播放量最高的新遊戲。

  • Moving to video content.

    轉向視訊內容。

  • Prime Video has a compelling lineup of live sports, including the UEFA Champions League and Ligue 1 soccer in France as well as NFL Thursday Night Football in the United States.

    Prime Video 擁有一系列引人注目的體育賽事直播,包括法國的歐洲冠軍聯賽和 Ligue 1 足球賽以及美國的 NFL 週四晚間足球賽。

  • And we have a great lineup of original series to look forward to, including The Wheel of Time, Lord of the Rings and Citadel and new seasons from Jack Ryan, The Marvelous Mrs.

    我們還有一系列精彩的原創影集值得期待,包括《時光之輪》、《魔戒》和《城堡》,以及《傑克瑞恩》、《了不起的麥瑟爾夫人》的新季。

  • Maisel and The Boys.

    麥瑟爾和男孩們。

  • We are excited to add this content to our Prime benefits and increase the value of our prime membership.

    我們很高興將此內容添加到我們的 Prime 福利中,並增加我們 Prime 會員的價值。

  • Q4's guidance also includes an estimated $1 billion year-over-year negative impact from lower fixed cost leverage in our fulfillment network.

    第四季的指導還包括我們的履行網絡中固定成本槓桿降低帶來的預計 10 億美元的同比負面影響。

  • Recall that we saw very high unit volumes in Q4 of last year, and then our fulfillment centers were running at close to 100% capacity as we work to add physical capacity to match demand.

    回想一下,我們在去年第四季度看到了非常高的單位數量,然後我們的履行中心以接近 100% 的容量運行,因為我們努力增加實體容量以滿足需求。

  • As we are now back to having a more normal Q4 fulfillment capacity and have even brought forward 2022 capacity into 2021, our operating leverage dropped compared with last Q4.

    由於我們現在恢復了更正常的第四季履行能力,甚至將 2022 年的產能提前到 2021 年,因此我們的營運槓桿與上一季相比有所下降。

  • Our revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects the current trends we are seeing, including the lapping of our Prime Day event in October of last year.

    我們對第四季度的收入指引反映了我們所看到的當前趨勢,包括去年 10 月的 Prime Day 活動。

  • We're dealing with labor risks and supply chain interruptions like many other companies, which increases our range of potential outcomes in Q4.

    像許多其他公司一樣,我們正在應對勞動力風險和供應鏈中斷,這增加了我們第四季度潛在結果的範圍。

  • Consumers have started to return to pre-pandemic spending patterns, increasing their mobility and spending more on travel and services in Q2 and Q3, but we are appreciative that the incremental demand that came our way during the pandemic has remained, and that we are continuing to grow on top of that.

    消費者已開始恢復到疫情前的支出模式,在第二季和第三季增加了他們的流動性並增加了旅行和服務方面的支出,但我們很高興看到大流行期間出現的增量需求仍然存在,我們正在繼續在此基礎上成長。

  • We also had to make this a great holiday season for customers.

    我們還必須讓這成為客戶的美好假期。

  • Last quarter, we discussed the physical capacity we were adding to meet customer demand.

    上季度,我們討論了為滿足客戶需求而增加的實體容量。

  • We made strong progress in Q3 to build and open new facilities.

    我們在第三季在建設和開設新設施方面取得了巨大進展。

  • And as a result, for the first time since the pandemic began, we are no longer capacity constrained for physical space in the network.

    因此,自大流行開始以來,我們第一次不再受到網路物理空間的容量限制。

  • September alone, we brought online more than 100 new buildings in the United States, including fulfillment centers, sort centers and last-mile delivery stations.

    光是 9 月份,我們就在美國建成了 100 多棟新建築,包括配送中心、分揀中心和最後一哩配送站。

  • For the year, we expect our 2021 footprint additions to exceed last year's build-out, which was also significant.

    今年,我們預計 2021 年的足跡增量將超過去年的擴建量,這也很重要。

  • To put this in perspective, we are on track to double our fulfillment network over the 2-year period since the pandemic's early days.

    從長遠來看,自疫情爆發初期以來的兩年內,我們有望將我們的履行網絡擴大一倍。

  • A lot of this increased capacity supports our FBA sellers.

    增加的產能很大程度上支持了我們的亞馬遜物流賣家。

  • Third-party sellers and the products they offer remain an important strength of our offering for customers, representing 56% of total paid units sold in Q3.

    第三方賣家及其提供的產品仍然是我們為客戶提供的服務的重要優勢,佔第三季付費商品銷售總量的 56%。

  • That's up from 54% in Q3 of last year.

    這比去年第三季的 54% 有所上升。

  • And we're working with these partners, most of whom are small and medium-sized businesses, to build an even stronger offering.

    我們正在與這些合作夥伴(其中大多數是中小型企業)合作,打造更強大的產品。

  • We recently hosted Amazon Accelerate, our U.S. conference for selling partners, where we introduced new tools and capabilities, including local selling, which enables sellers to start or expand their multichannel offerings by providing both in-store pickup and fast delivery to nearby customers, and global selling tools to make it easier for U.S. third-party sellers to offer their products worldwide.

    我們最近舉辦了Amazon Accelerate,這是我們針對銷售合作夥伴的美國會議,我們在會上推出了新的工具和功能,包括本地銷售,使賣家能夠透過向附近的客戶提供店內取貨和快速送貨來啟動或擴展其多通路產品,以及全球銷售工具,使美國第三方賣家更容易在全球範圍內銷售其產品。

  • I'll finish with a few highlights regarding 2 fast-growing areas with strong profitability profiles.

    最後,我將重點介紹兩個具有強勁獲利能力的快速成長領域。

  • First, we saw a continuation of strong usage and revenue growth in AWS, with revenues accelerating to 39% year-over-year in Q3, driven by a broad base of services and customers.

    首先,我們看到 AWS 的使用量和收入持續強勁成長,在廣泛的服務和客戶群的推動下,第三季營收年增 39%。

  • There are a number of areas we're excited about, but let's focus for a moment on our efforts in machine learning.

    有很多領域讓我們感到興奮,但讓我們暫時關註一下我們在機器學習方面的努力。

  • Customers of all sizes and across all industries are using AWS as their preferred cloud provider for machine learning services.

    各種規模、各行業的客戶都在使用 AWS 作為機器學習服務的首選雲端供應商。

  • We've been investing in this area for several years, offer an extensive set of machine learning services, including ones that can be applied to common business problems like Amazon Connect for contact center intelligence or Amazon Kendra for intelligent enterprise search.

    我們多年來一直在這一領域進行投資,提供廣泛的機器學習服務,包括可應用於常見業務問題的服務,例如用於聯絡中心智慧的 Amazon Connect 或用於智慧企業搜尋的 Amazon Kendra。

  • And we recently launched solutions specific to industries, including industrial machine learning services as well as Amazon HealthLake to help health care and life sciences customers seamlessly transform their data across disparate sources to understand and extract meaningful medical information.

    我們最近推出了針對行業的解決方案,包括工業機器學習服務以及 Amazon HealthLake,以幫助醫療保健和生命科學客戶跨不同來源無縫轉換數據,以理解和提取有意義的醫療資訊。

  • And Amazon SageMaker continues to help customers scale their use of machine learning to core workloads, making it one of the fastest-growing services in AWS history with tens of thousands of active external customers using it every month.

    Amazon SageMaker 繼續幫助客戶將機器學習的使用擴展到核心工作負載,使其成為 AWS 歷史上成長最快的服務之一,每月有數以萬計的活躍外部客戶使用它。

  • We also continue to see strong interest and rapid adoption of our custom silicon and AWS-designed Graviton2 processors, delivering customers up to 40% better price/performance than current x86 processors.

    我們也繼續看到人們對我們的客製化晶片和 AWS 設計的 Graviton2 處理器產生濃厚興趣並迅速採用,為客戶提供比目前 x86 處理器高出 40% 的性價比。

  • Moving to Graviton2 means little to no code changes so that customers can quickly and easily migrate their workloads to access the best price/performance in Amazon EC2.

    遷移到 Graviton2 意味著幾乎不需要任何程式碼更改,以便客戶可以快速輕鬆地遷移其工作負載,以獲得 Amazon EC2 中的最佳性價比。

  • Last but certainly not least, Amazon Advertising continues to grow quickly, representing the significant majority of other revenue, which grew 49% year-over-year in Q3.

    最後但並非最不重要的一點是,亞馬遜廣告持續快速成長,佔其他收入的絕大部分,第三季年增 49%。

  • We are seeing strong adoption across Amazon vendors, sellers and authors as well as brands that don't sell in our store, particularly as we've built out our streaming TV offerings.

    我們看到亞馬遜供應商、賣家和作者以及不在我們商店銷售的品牌的大力採用,特別是當我們已經建立了串流媒體電視產品時。

  • Of course, advertising only works if we make it useful for customers.

    當然,廣告只有在對客戶有用的情況下才有效。

  • And when we create great customer experiences, we deliver better outcomes for brands.

    當我們創造出色的客戶體驗時,我們就能為品牌帶來更好的成果。

  • The team also recently hosted unBoxed 2021, our annual conference for advertisers and brands, where we shared some of our newest solutions to help companies connect with their customers, measure the impact of their advertising and grow their businesses.

    團隊最近還舉辦了 unBoxed 2021,這是我們針對廣告商和品牌的年度會議,我們在會議上分享了一些最新的解決方案,以幫助公司與客戶建立聯繫、衡量廣告的影響並發展業務。

  • As we shift into Q4, we are heads down focused on delivering a great experience for our customers this holiday season.

    隨著進入第四季度,我們正專注於在這個假期為我們的客戶提供良好的體驗。

  • We are committed to make the necessary investments in both people and capacity to bring more items in stock and to deliver them quickly to customers.

    我們致力於對人員和能力進行必要的投資,以增加庫存並將其快速交付給客戶。

  • With that, let's move on to Q&A.

    接下來,讓我們進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Justin Post with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

  • Justin Post - MD

    Justin Post - MD

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Maybe I'll ask about fulfillment capacity.

    也許我會問一下履行能力。

  • You said your capacity is up 2x since before the pandemic and have got units up around 55% on a 2-year basis.

    您說,自大流行之前以來,您的產能增加了 2 倍,單位數量在 2 年內增加了約 55%。

  • So just wondering, is the capacity needed per unit going up as you speed up delivery times and try to get to 1 day?

    所以我想知道,當您加快交貨時間並嘗試達到 1 天時,每單位所需的容量是否會增加?

  • And then second, are you in really good shape for next year?

    其次,你明年的狀態真的好嗎?

  • And could you be ahead of plan for next year and kind of cut down the investment there?

    您能否提前完成明年的計劃並減少那裡的投資?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Justin, on your first question about whether we, the comparison of doubling the fulfillment capacity to the unit growth.

    賈斯汀,關於你的第一個問題,我們是否將履行能力加倍與單位成長進行比較。

  • Keep in mind also that our fulfillment capacity also includes our transportation delivery capacity.

    另請記住,我們的履行能力還包括我們的運輸交付能力。

  • And in the last 2 years, we've also greatly ratcheted up our ability to deliver ourselves through AMZL.

    在過去的兩年裡,我們也大大提高了透過 AMZL 實現自我交付的能力。

  • And our percent of units that we deliver through AMZL is over 50% of our units globally.

    透過 AMZL 交付的商品數量占我們全球商品數量的 50% 以上。

  • So that's a big, that's a driver as well.

    所以這是一個大人物,也是一個司機。

  • I'd also say that while we've been chasing really demand for the last 2 years.

    我還要說的是,雖然我們在過去兩年裡一直在追逐真正的需求。

  • We've been doing it, as I said, we're running at about 100% pretty much all of last year.

    正如我所說,我們一直在這樣做,去年全年我們幾乎都以 100% 的速度運行。

  • We are just now getting caught up on space for inventory and inventories being brought in to support the holiday.

    我們現在正忙於庫存空間和為支持假期而引入的庫存。

  • And if you look year-over-year, while units growth is, as you say, closer to 8% in Q3, the cubic, inventory cube is up closer to 40%, both in North America and internationally.

    如果你看一下同比情況,正如你所說,第三季度的銷量增長接近 8%,而北美和國際上的立方體庫存立方體增長接近 40%。

  • So there's like the second shoe that's dropping of getting the fulfillment centers back in stock, especially for sellers and especially as we head into holiday.

    因此,第二雙鞋正在下降,讓履行中心恢復庫存,特別是對於賣家來說,尤其是當我們進入假期時。

  • So that's, I think that capacity, the amount of space we have for inventory is also going up probably at a higher rate than our unit shipped right now.

    所以,我認為產能、我們的庫存空間量的成長速度可能比我們現在出貨的速度還要快。

  • Your question about whether it pulls forward from next year.

    你關於它是否從明年開始的問題。

  • We're not forecasting into next year.

    我們不預測明年。

  • We do see that we will, I mean, we expect growth.

    我們確實看到,我的意思是,我們期待成長。

  • And as I mentioned on the last call, we think that the growth will be suppressed for the 4 quarters that end middle of Q2 next year, just as a comp versus 2020 just because of the 40% growth we saw last year.

    正如我在上次電話會議中提到的,我們認為明年第二季中期結束的 4 個季度的成長將受到抑制,就像與 2020 年相比一樣,因為我們去年看到了 40% 的成長。

  • But we expect the long-term trends to be strong in this business.

    但我們預計該業務的長期趨勢將強勁。

  • We're investing as such.

    我們就是這樣投資的。

  • As I mentioned, the 2-year CAGRs, I do that just so you can kind of judge pre-pandemic versus today.

    正如我所提到的,兩年複合年增長率,我這樣做只是為了讓你可以判斷大流行前與今天的情況。

  • We see strong growth even off of a base of last year, which was strong.

    即使在去年強勁的基礎上,我們也看到了強勁的成長。

  • So we'll see next year on CapEx.

    所以我們明年會看到資本支出。

  • And certainly, for the foreseeable future, our capacity constraint is actually labor, which is new and not welcome.

    當然,在可預見的未來,我們的能力限制實際上是勞動力,這是新的且不受歡迎的。

  • And that's what we've tried to articulate here today.

    這就是我們今天試圖在這裡闡明的內容。

  • And we are hoping that, that rectifies itself through Q4 and into early 2022.

    我們希望這種情況能夠在第四季和 2022 年初得到糾正。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Two questions.

    兩個問題。

  • First, any color around those international losses in the quarter that was large even by Amazon standards, that $900 million?

    首先,該季度的國際虧損(即使以亞馬遜的標準來看也很大,即 9 億美元)有什麼意義嗎?

  • And then secondly, talk about the, you've been spending, so you've doubled the fulfillment capacity, I think, to really kind of catch up to demand, but now I think like you're getting ahead of it.

    其次,談論一下,你一直在支出,所以我認為你已經將履行能力增加了一倍,以真正趕上需求,但現在我認為你已經領先了。

  • And as you roll out, you get close to 1 day promise that you worked up 2 or 3 years ago pre-pandemic and as you start rolling out super same-day delivery or what you call sub-1-day delivery, talk about the incremental demand you think that, that could unlock and to the extent at which you're investing against not only to catch up to demand, but trying to liberate future demand if you get my point?

    當你推出時,你接近 1 天的承諾,就像你在 2 或 3 年前大流行前所做的那樣,當你開始推出超級當日送達或所謂的不到 1 天送達時,談論您認為增量需求可以釋放,並且您投資的程度不僅是為了趕上需求,而且是為了釋放未來的需求,如果您明白我的觀點的話?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I definitely do.

    我絕對願意。

  • And I'm glad you brought that up because I didn't include in my last answer.

    我很高興你提出這個問題,因為我沒有在上一個答案中提到這一點。

  • But yes, we have unfinished business on the 1-day promise side.

    但是,是的,我們在 1 天的承諾方面還有未完成的事情。

  • We were ramping that up nicely in 2019 and in the first quarter of 2020 before the pandemic.

    我們在 2019 年和疫情爆發前的 2020 年第一季都很好地提高了這一水平。

  • We're still not back to levels that we saw pre-pandemic.

    我們仍然沒有回到大流行前的水平。

  • We're getting closer.

    我們越來越近了。

  • We feel, again, that kind of labor constraints have not helped us close the gap there.

    我們再次感到,這種勞動限制並沒有幫助我們縮小差距。

  • But we don't want to be just as good as we were before the pandemic.

    但我們不想像大流行之前一樣好。

  • We expect that to increase in 2022.

    我們預計這一數字將在 2022 年增加。

  • And we're going to plan accordingly.

    我們將製定相應的計劃。

  • And I think you start to see the difference in the growth rate before and after that 1 day.

    我想你會開始看到那一天之前和之後成長率的差異。

  • I won't forecast it too much, but we did see pickup and we saw really that we got into the consideration set for more purchases.

    我不會預測太多,但我們確實看到了提貨,我們確實看到我們考慮了更多購買。

  • When something is available in 1 day or less, now you really don't have to go to a store even if you need it very quickly.

    當某樣東西在 1 天或更短的時間內就有貨時,即使您很快就需要它,現在您實際上也不必去商店。

  • So it just opens up more ways for us to serve our customers, especially our Prime customers.

    因此,它為我們服務客戶,尤其是 Prime 客戶開闢了更多方式。

  • On your comment about international, yes, you're right, it was a larger loss than in prior quarters.

    關於您對國際的評論,是的,您是對的,這是比前幾季更大的損失。

  • In fact, we had flipped to positive operating income through the pandemic.

    事實上,我們在疫情期間已經實現了正營業收入。

  • A lot of that was, again, getting 2 years of volume growth on top of a 1 year or current year cost structure.

    其中很大一部分是在一年或當年的成本結構之上獲得兩年的銷售成長。

  • There's also a bit of a slowdown just in content and other things, although we're building that, we would have built it at a higher clip.

    內容和其他方面也有一點放緩,儘管我們正在建造它,但我們會以更高的速度建造它。

  • But the long-term trends remain the same in international.

    但國際上的長期趨勢維持不變。

  • It's a group that has very different, we're in different stages in different countries.

    這是一個非常不同的團隊,我們在不同的國家處於不同的階段。

  • The established countries of Europe and Japan are further along, obviously, and they perform closer to the North America results.

    顯然,歐洲和日本的老牌國家走得更遠,而且它們的表現更接近北美的結果。

  • We have new countries.

    我們有新的國家。

  • We've added a lot in the last few years, the investments in Brazil, the Middle East, Australia, adjacent countries of Poland and Sweden within Europe.

    過去幾年我們增加了許多投資,包括對巴西、中東、澳洲、歐洲鄰國波蘭和瑞典的投資。

  • So those are all important investments, but they start as an investment, and we build over time.

    因此,這些都是重要的投資,但它們都是從投資開始的,我們會隨著時間的推移而建造。

  • And we front-load a lot of Prime benefits in those countries, especially things like video.

    我們在這些國家/地區預先加載了許多 Prime 福利,尤其是影片等內容。

  • We find video as a really strong attractor of customers, and it's a gateway to Prime in a lot of those countries.

    我們發現影片對客戶具有很強的吸引力,並且在許多國家/地區它是通往 Prime 的門戶。

  • So the model is a bit flipped versus what we saw in North America just because we added video later in the game.

    因此,這個模型與我們在北美看到的模型有點翻轉,只是因為我們在遊戲後期添加了影片。

  • But we like what we see and we see the actual, the hours watched and the percent of Prime members who watch video is actually higher in a lot of the countries, the new countries that we're getting into.

    但我們喜歡我們所看到的,我們看到在許多國家/地區(我們正在進入的新國家),實際觀看影片的時間和觀看影片的 Prime 會員的百分比實際上更高。

  • So we're, as we said, we're going to make money long term in international.

    因此,正如我們所說,我們將在國際市場上長期賺錢。

  • Right now, it's a bit of an umbrella that catches a lot of different countries in different stages.

    現在,它就像一把保護傘,涵蓋了處於不同階段的許多不同國家。

  • We're happy with both the established countries.

    我們對這兩個既定國家感到滿意。

  • They're also seeing, however, the pressures that we're seeing in the United States on labor cost and disruption from supply chains.

    然而,他們也看到了我們在美國看到的勞動成本和供應鏈中斷的壓力。

  • So can't forecast this any further at the segment level, but I just want to give you a little color.

    因此,無法在細分級別上進一步預測這一點,但我只想給您一點顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的道格安穆斯 (Doug Anmuth)。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Brian, just curious how you fared in pulling holiday shopping earlier thus far this quarter?

    布萊恩,只是想知道本季到目前為止,您在提前取消假日購物方面表現如何?

  • And to what degree can that help ease some of the impact?

    這可以在多大程度上幫助緩解一些影響?

  • And perhaps what did you learn there last year from having Prime Day in 4Q?

    也許您從去年第四季的 Prime Day 中學到了什麼?

  • And then can you just also talk a little bit about the drivers of AWS acceleration and how you think about the margin profile with more contribution from enterprise deals?

    然後您能否也談談 AWS 加速的驅動因素以及您如何看待企業交易貢獻更多的利潤狀況?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Let's start with the holiday shopping.

    讓我們從假日購物開始。

  • So yes, you're right.

    所以是的,你是對的。

  • Last year, as we look back, we used Prime Day to pull a lot of holiday shopping forward.

    回顧去年,我們利用 Prime Day 推動了許多假期購物的發展。

  • And people knew that delivery capacity across all retailers was going to be tight.

    人們知道所有零售商的配送能力都會緊張。

  • So it was more distributed through the quarter.

    因此,整個季度的分佈更為廣泛。

  • Obviously, that works better for us than to have it all hit in a few concentrated weeks around Cyber Monday and Black Friday and the week before and 2 weeks after.

    顯然,這對我們來說比在「網路星期一」和「黑色星期五」前後以及前一周和後兩週的集中幾週內實現所有目標更好。

  • So operationally, it's easier to perform when the volume is spread out.

    因此在操作上,當音量分散時更容易執行。

  • You are seeing a lot of promotional activity from us in October, again, trying to do what we did last year, just pull some demand and get people to buy and buy early.

    你會在 10 月再次看到我們的大量促銷活動,試圖做我們去年所做的事情,只是拉動一些需求並讓人們儘早購買。

  • We think that's to their advantage.

    我們認為這對他們有利。

  • Although we're preparing to serve people throughout the whole quarter, we feel we've done a good job of lining up inventory commitments that are larger than normal.

    儘管我們準備在整個季度為人們提供服務,但我們認為我們在安排比正常情況更大的庫存承諾方面做得很好。

  • We've looked at getting more container capacity.

    我們考慮過增加貨櫃容量。

  • We've been successful in that.

    我們在這方面取得了成功。

  • We've accessed new ports and ports of entry into the United States.

    我們已經進入了美國的新港口和入境口岸。

  • So we're doing everything we can, granted it's at a cost penalty in many cases, but we feel good about being able to serve customers this Q4.

    因此,我們正在盡一切努力,儘管在許多情況下會付出成本代價,但我們對能夠在第四季度為客戶提供服務感到很高興。

  • Love it in October, but we will take it in November and December as well.

    喜歡十月,但我們也會在十一月和十二月參加。

  • On AWS, the acceleration, I would, again, I would say that what we're seeing is, again, a lot of customers accelerated their journey to the cloud based on the pandemic.

    在 AWS 上,我想說的是,我們再次看到的是,由於疫情的影響,許多客戶加速了他們的雲端之旅。

  • Some of their spending was suppressed in 2020.

    2020 年,他們的部分支出受到抑制。

  • It was different.

    這是不同的。

  • Some companies were booming, Disney, Zoom, Netflix.

    有些公司正在蓬勃發展,像是迪士尼、Zoom、Netflix。

  • Others that were more travel-related were suppressed in their demand.

    其他與旅行相關的人的需求受到抑制。

  • And I think there's a general level of recovery across a lot of our customer base.

    我認為我們的許多客戶群都處於總體恢復水平。

  • We're expanding our customer base into a lot of different areas.

    我們正在將客戶群擴展到許多不同的領域。

  • We'll have new different customers.

    我們將有新的不同客戶。

  • We add many new products.

    我們增加了許多新產品。

  • I highlighted a few of our machine learning products.

    我重點介紹了我們的一些機器學習產品。

  • So we feel really good about the acceleration in growth.

    因此,我們對成長的加速感到非常滿意。

  • We know there was some suppression last year, but the growth last year was still in the 28% to 32% or excuse me, 28% to 33% range on an FX-neutral basis through most of the year.

    我們知道去年受到了一些抑制,但去年大部分時間,在匯率中性的基礎上,去年的增長仍然在 28% 到 32% 之間,或者對不起,在 28% 到 33% 的範圍內。

  • On the margin side, the margins are going to be, they're always going to fluctuate over time.

    在利潤方面,利潤總是會隨著時間的推移而波動。

  • There's a lot of moving parts.

    有很多活動部件。

  • There's a lot of extensions of contracts and long-term commitments, which are great for our business and great for customers.

    有很多合約延期和長期承諾,這對我們的業務和客戶都有好處。

  • So there's negotiated long-term deals.

    因此,有談判達成的長期協議。

  • There's also a lot of investment in new capacity and new regions to service high usage.

    我們也對新容量和新區域進行了大量投資,以滿足高使用率。

  • We're certainly adding, continuing to add to our sales force and marketing teams.

    我們當然會增加、持續增加我們的銷售團隊和行銷團隊。

  • And then the counterbalance on that is how well we run our data centers, what efficiencies we get, what cost reductions we get.

    然後,與之相平衡的是我們資料中心的運作情況、我們獲得的效率以及我們獲得的成本降低。

  • So it's always going to be varying.

    所以它總是會有所不同。

  • We like where we are and will not forecast forward.

    我們喜歡現在的處境,不會預測未來。

  • But again, they're apt to change, but we're working hard to keep them high and while passing through benefits and efficiencies to customers in lower pricing.

    但同樣,它們很容易發生變化,但我們正在努力保持高水平,同時以較低的價格向客戶傳遞利益和效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brian Nowak with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩·諾瓦克。

  • Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

    Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

  • I have 2, Brian.

    我有 2 個,布萊恩。

  • The first one, I wanted to kind of ask a big picture question about the retail business.

    第一個,我想問一個有關零售業務的大局問題。

  • I know there's a lot of extra costs sort of moving through the system now.

    我知道現在系統中存在著許多額外成本。

  • But maybe can you just talk to us big picture about any changes or factors that have changed the company's view about the long-term profitability, the long-term return on invested capital of the retail business now as opposed to at the end of 2019.

    但也許您可以與我們談談與 2019 年底相比,任何改變公司對長期盈利能力、零售業務長期投資資本回報率看法的變化或因素。

  • And then the second one is on the physical stores.

    然後第二個是在實體店面。

  • You have quite a few different formats and experiments going on in the physical stores.

    實體店裡有很多不同的形式和實驗正在進行中。

  • Talk to us about areas where you've seen sort of the most positive results from physical stores, where you're pleased as opposed to areas where you still see room for improvement in the physical store strategy.

    與我們談談您在實體店中看到的最積極成果的領域,您對此感到滿意的領域,而不是您認為實體店策略仍有改進空間的領域。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Let me start with your comment on the, we'll call it the core retail business.

    讓我先談談您對我們稱之為核心零售業務的評論。

  • We're very bullish on the retail business.

    我們非常看好零售業務。

  • In fact, it's impossible and not productive to even try and separate advertising from third party from retail.

    事實上,嘗試將第三方廣告與零售分開是不可能的,也是沒有成效的。

  • It's all, to us, part of a flywheel where we service customers.

    對我們來說,這都是我們為客戶提供服務的飛輪的一部分。

  • We do it in an efficient way, and we earn their trust and earn their future business, and we fight that battle every day.

    我們以高效的方式做到這一點,我們贏得了他們的信任並贏得了他們未來的業務,我們每天都在打這場仗。

  • And we look to expand the Prime program to build that flywheel.

    我們希望擴大 Prime 計劃來建造飛輪。

  • We look to add new products and services like grocery and video and music and the list is long.

    我們希望添加新產品和服務,例如雜貨、影片和音樂,清單很長。

  • So when you look at retail, it's certainly expensive right now, especially with the costs I've laid out in Q3 and Q4 for us to service that business.

    因此,當你看看零售業時,現在肯定很昂貴,特別是考慮到我在第三季和第四季為我們服務該業務而列出的成本。

  • However, we have other monetization vehicles, including advertising, that if we do well become a benefit to customers and to advertisers at the same time.

    然而,我們還有其他貨幣化工具,包括廣告,如果我們做得好,可以同時為客戶和廣告商帶來好處。

  • That's what we work on.

    這就是我們所做的工作。

  • So that is an important part of our profitability structure.

    所以這是我們獲利結構的重要組成部分。

  • It's tied directly to happy customers and customers who are engaged in buying things.

    它與滿意的客戶和正在購買商品的客戶直接相關。

  • So we don't separate those 2. We do for some reasons.

    所以我們不會將這兩者分開。

  • We want to make sure that we're understanding where our cost and where our profits happen to be, but we do realize it's all part of the same customer offering.

    我們希望確保我們了解我們的成本和利潤在哪裡,但我們確實意識到這都是同一客戶產品的一部分。

  • And we like the return on investment flywheel.

    我們喜歡飛輪的投資報酬率。

  • We do.

    我們做到了。

  • I get to see investments in warehouses, trucking programs, new offerings that we do, new country expansion.

    我看到了對倉庫、貨運項目、我們提供的新產品、新的國家擴張的投資。

  • We segment those as much as we can into discrete decisions.

    我們盡可能地將這些細分為離散的決策。

  • And then we track them and make sure that not only are we delighting customers, we're delighting shareholders in the long term.

    然後我們追蹤它們並確保我們不僅讓客戶滿意,而且從長遠來看我們也讓股東滿意。

  • So we feel good about that.

    所以我們對此感覺良好。

  • Certainly, the cost of fulfillment in the last few months and what we've forecast into the next quarter are not what we're happy about.

    當然,過去幾個月的履行成本以及我們對下一季的預測並不是我們所滿意的。

  • But we see ourselves as the shock absorber absorbing a lot of the costs so that the customer is not impacted and sellers are not impacted.

    但我們認為自己是避震器,吸收了很多成本,這樣客戶就不會受到影響,賣家也不會受到影響。

  • And again, there's just quite limited options in the short run to impact your cost structure.

    再說一遍,短期內影響成本結構的選擇非常有限。

  • Most companies would delay shipment or add fees or something.

    大多數公司都會延遲出貨或增加費用什麼的。

  • We don't think that is customer-centric nor productive.

    我們認為這不是以客戶為中心,也不是有成效的。

  • And we will get through this period and then we are committed to getting our cost structure down.

    我們將度過這個時期,然後我們致力於降低成本結構。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • And Brian, on that second question around the physical store strategy.

    布萊恩,關於實體店策略的第二個問題。

  • Of course, we have a number of different brands and store types, Whole Foods being the largest that's got over 500 locations.

    當然,我們有許多不同的品牌和商店類型,其中 Whole Foods 是最大的,擁有 500 多個商店。

  • We've got Amazon 4-Star, Amazon Books, the Fresh grocery stores, Amazon Go and Amazon Pop Ups.

    我們有亞馬遜四星級、亞馬遜圖書、生鮮雜貨店、亞馬遜 Go 和亞馬遜快閃店。

  • And each one, of course, has a name and the types of products they offer has its own differences.

    當然,每一種都有自己的名稱,而且他們提供的產品類型也有自己的差異。

  • But I think when you step back, we've said that we want options for customers to be able to shop online and in-store.

    但我想,當你退後一步時,我們已經說過,我們希望為顧客提供線上和店內購物的選擇。

  • And I think you're seeing that probably most predominantly with the grocery offerings and the Whole Foods footprint that we've got out there.

    我想你看到的可能主要是我們在那裡的雜貨產品和全食超市的足跡。

  • And we want to give customers choice and offer them the combination of doing that online and in-store option, whatever works best.

    我們希望為顧客提供選擇,並為他們提供線上和店內選擇的組合,無論哪種效果最好。

  • And the goal around this is really raise the bar for what customers can expect with this omnichannel experience.

    圍繞此目標的目標是真正提高客戶對這種全通路體驗的期望標準。

  • So we like the hybrid model and we're working on continuing to evolve on a lot of sort of interesting in-store experiences that will resonate with customers.

    因此,我們喜歡混合模式,並且正在努力繼續發展多種有趣的店內體驗,以引起客戶的共鳴。

  • We know that customers like to have a choice to be able to do that.

    我們知道客戶希望有選擇能夠做到這一點。

  • So some of the things that we continue to be excited about and do a lot to work on are things like the Just Walk Out technology that's been in our Amazon Go stores and has now moved into some of our Amazon Fresh stores, just really eliminates, again, one of those things that people may not realize is such a hassle or a deterrent to shopping, waiting in line and eliminating something that's really been positively received by customers as they use that technology.

    因此,我們繼續感到興奮並做很多工作的一些事情,例如我們的 Amazon Go 商店中的 Just Walk Out 技術,現在已經轉移到我們的一些 Amazon Fresh 商店中,真的消除了,同樣,人們可能沒有意識到達的事情之一就是購物、排隊等候以及消除客戶在使用該技術時真正受到積極歡迎的東西如此麻煩或阻礙。

  • Another one, just as you enter these stores, there's technology we have now in a little over 70 of our physical retail stores.

    另一方面,當您進入這些商店時,我們現在 70 多家實體零售店都配備了技術。

  • That's Amazon One, which is a contactless way for folks to enter stores using their palm to identify.

    這就是 Amazon One,這是一種非接觸式方式,人們可以使用手掌來識別進入商店。

  • So that's in, as I said, retail stores and Whole Foods stores.

    正如我所說,這就是零售店和全食超市的情況。

  • And so keep looking for us to roll that out.

    因此,請繼續尋找我們來推出它。

  • And I'd say, with these technologies, too, there's opportunities beyond the Amazon physical store footprints that I mentioned.

    我想說,有了這些技術,除了我提到的亞馬遜實體店足跡之外,還有其他機會。

  • You're starting to see Just Walk Out going in sports and kind of large arena type environments.

    您開始看到 Just Walk Out 出現在運動和大型競技場類型的環境中。

  • And Amazon One is at some good locations.

    亞馬遜一號 (Amazon One) 位於一些不錯的地點。

  • And both those technologies, I'm excited to employ them in Climate Pledge Arena here in Seattle.

    我很高興能夠在西雅圖的氣候承諾競技場中使用這兩項技術。

  • So look for us to keep iterating on those and finding other new innovative ways for customers to enjoy a unique shopping experience.

    因此,我們將不斷迭代這些方法,並尋找其他新的創新方式,讓顧客享受獨特的購物體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的艾瑞克·謝裡丹。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Maybe if I can come back to 2 on the Q4 cost structure.

    也許我可以回到第四季成本結構的 2。

  • Just in terms of framing it almost against a year ago period, could you talk a little bit about the $4 billion of COVID costs from a year ago, the elements of EBIT contribution from things like AWS and third party in advertising and maybe help investors better understand the bridge between some of the elements of headwinds to profitability in Q4 versus Q4 a year ago.

    就幾乎一年前的情況而言,您能否談談一年前 40 億美元的新冠肺炎成本、AWS 和廣告領域第三方等機構的息稅前利潤貢獻要素,也許可以更好地幫助投資者了解第四季度與一年前第四季獲利能力的一些不利因素之間的橋樑。

  • Appreciate all the comments upfront, then if we could just go a little bit deeper.

    感謝前面所有的評論,然後我們可以更深入一點嗎?

  • And then of the costs you're incurring late Q3 into Q4, how should investors think about a permanent nature to that cost structure versus a transient nature of the cost structure, either as an output of the macro environment or the unit environment in Q4?

    然後,對於從第三季末到第四季產生的成本,投資者應該如何考慮該成本結構的永久性性質與成本結構的暫時性性質,無論是作為宏觀環境的輸出還是第四季度單位環境的輸出?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Eric, for your questions.

    謝謝埃里克提出的問題。

  • I'll just start with the second one.

    我將從第二個開始。

  • So how should we think about the cost permanence?

    那我們該如何考慮成本持久性呢?

  • Certainly, on the labor front there, we estimated about half of the cost is permanent base wage.

    當然,在勞動力方面,我們估計大約一半的成本是永久性基本工資。

  • The other half is in incentives that we currently offer to attract workers.

    另一半是我們目前為吸引工人而提供的激勵措施。

  • We're going to have to see.

    我們得看看。

  • I think we are going to have to adjust and work to lower our cost going forward, especially on things that we procure that may have gone up in price in the last few months.

    我認為我們將不得不調整並努力降低未來的成本,特別是對於我們採購的過去幾個月價格可能上漲的東西。

  • Mostly what I'm talking about is kind of third party, things like trucking and steel for fulfillment center construction.

    我主要談論的是第三方,例如用於履行中心建設的卡車運輸和鋼鐵。

  • So we will be working on our cost structure for a while.

    因此,我們將在一段時間內研究我們的成本結構。

  • If you're trying to do the bridge for Q4 year-over-year, a couple of things I would say.

    如果你想為第四季做橋樑,我會說幾件事。

  • Yes, the COVID costs are lower by $1.5 billion versus last year.

    是的,新冠肺炎疫情造成的成本比去年減少了 15 億美元。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Q3, yes?

    Q3,是嗎?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • If you're Q4, excuse me, the $4 billion is going to be pure variance year-over-year.

    如果你是第四季​​,對不起,40 億美元將是同比的純粹差異。

  • That's what we've identified, $2 billion roughly of labor inflation and $2 billion of operational disruption mostly through higher transportation costs.

    這就是我們所確定的,大約 20 億美元的勞動力通膨和 20 億美元的營運中斷主要是由於運輸成本上升造成的。

  • There are a couple of other items year-over-year.

    與去年同期相比,還有其他一些項目。

  • If you remember, last year, we were running at nearly 100% of capacity.

    如果你還記得的話,去年我們幾乎以 100% 的產能運作。

  • That's not the ideal for us, but it has the benefit of being highly leveraged and can have other costs, but it's highly leveraged mathematically on a cost per unit shipped.

    這對我們來說不是理想的選擇,但它的好處是槓桿率高,並且可能有其他成本,但從數學上看,它在每單位運輸成本上槓桿率很高。

  • As we get more into a normal buffer so that we can handle swings in volumes, especially as we get closer to holiday cutoffs, we generally run with more slack in the system.

    當我們更多地進入正常緩衝以便我們能夠應對交易量的波動時,特別是當我們接近假期截止時,我們通常會在系統中運行更多的閒置資源。

  • And we're in the good fortune of returning to maybe a more normal profile in space this Q4.

    我們很幸運能夠在第四季恢復到更正常的太空狀態。

  • The issue is again on labor.

    問題再次涉及勞工。

  • So there's that.

    所以就是這樣。

  • There's the increased cost in digital content, combination of video, games, music, audible.

    數位內容、影片、遊戲、音樂和音訊的組合成本增加。

  • So some rather large items year-over-year.

    因此,一些相當大的項目逐年增加。

  • Haven't given you a complete bridge, but that's what we're seeing.

    還沒有給你一個完整的橋樑,但這就是我們所看到的。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think that's right, $4 billion, the items you mentioned, $1 billion higher in content.

    我認為是的,40 億美元,你提到的項目,內容多了 10 億美元。

  • Marketing costs, they were suppressed last year for much of the year and you're starting to see those grow throughout 2021.

    行銷成本去年大部分時間都受到抑制,但你會開始看到這些成本在 2021 年不斷增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Dan Salmon。

  • Daniel Salmon - Analyst

    Daniel Salmon - Analyst

  • I have 2 questions.

    我有 2 個問題。

  • First, you mentioned growing customers' use of Prime, more original programming coming and the services you offer continuing to expand.

    首先,您提到越來越多的客戶使用 Prime、更多原創節目即將推出以及您提供的服務不斷擴展。

  • Do you see this demand, this new content, the new services having expanded to a point where a price increase for the Prime subscription begins to make sense?

    您是否認為這種需求、這種新內容、新服務已經擴展到 Prime 訂閱價格上漲開始有意義的程度?

  • And then second, you mentioned the unBoxed event earlier this week.

    其次,您提到了本週早些時候的 unBoxed 活動。

  • A number of new ad products announced there.

    在那裡發布了許多新的廣告產品。

  • Which among them do you expect to be most impactful to the overall advertising business?

    您認為其中哪一個對整個廣告業務影響最大?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Dan.

    謝謝,丹。

  • I'm going to start with the first question on Prime.

    我將從關於 Prime 的第一個問題開始。

  • So yes, we're very excited about the current programming that's coming out in the back end of this year and also the prospect for 2022.

    所以,是的,我們對今年年底即將推出的當前節目以及 2022 年的前景感到非常興奮。

  • We think it's a real step-up in options and quality and volume for our customers globally on the video side.

    我們認為,對於我們全球影片的客戶來說,這在選擇、品質和數量方面是真正的進步。

  • I'm very excited about it.

    我對此感到非常興奮。

  • And you're right, it does have a lot of value.

    你是對的,它確實有很多價值。

  • I have nothing to discuss or announce around Prime price increases, but we always look at that.

    關於 Prime 價格上漲,我沒有什麼可討論或宣布的,但我們總是會關注這一點。

  • We look at the value.

    我們看的是價值。

  • It's generally a country-by-country discussion.

    這通常是針對不同國家的討論。

  • We look at the value we've built.

    我們著眼於我們所建立的價值。

  • We look at the time since our last price increase.

    我們查看自上次漲價以來的時間。

  • There's a lot of strategic factors involved, obviously.

    顯然,這涉及很多戰略因素。

  • But the main job is to build the value of Prime, and that's what we work on and video's a big part of that.

    但主要工作是建立 Prime 的價值,這就是我們的工作內容,而影片是其中的重要組成部分。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And Dan, on the second piece for advertising, I think we still see there's a lot of opportunity in the biggest kind of bucket, if you will, of the current advertising revenue run rate, and that's in the sponsored activity that we're able to offer up to customers, continuing to find ways to just measure that information and be able to surface it credibly and quickly and improve on that for advertisers out there.

    丹,關於廣告的第二部分,我認為我們仍然看到,如果你願意的話,在當前廣告收入運行率的最大類別中存在很多機會,而這就是我們能夠進行的讚助活動為客戶提供服務,繼續尋找方法來衡量這些訊息,並能夠可靠、快速地呈現這些訊息,並為廣告商改進這一點。

  • So a lot of work, I think, still being done on the team there and being able to add value for customers.

    因此,我認為團隊仍在完成大量工作,並且能夠為客戶增加價值。

  • I'd point to, there's a lot of excitement in the video advertising area.

    我想指出的是,影片廣告領域有很多令人興奮的事情。

  • I know we've talked about that in the past.

    我知道我們過去已經討論過這個問題。

  • It's growing quickly.

    它增長得很快。

  • It's not the biggest piece of that run rate that you see in there but growing well.

    這不是您在那裡看到的運行率的最大部分,但增長良好。

  • And I think just the technology, we're able to develop some of the relationships that we've been able to foster with things like live sports, the opportunities with the Fire TV device and the video community and where we can reach folks through those areas is really exciting.

    我認為僅靠技術,我們就能夠發展一些我們已經能夠透過現場體育賽事、Fire TV 設備和視訊社群的機會以及我們可以透過這些聯繫到人們的東西來培養的關係。

  • IMDb TV, our ad-supported channel, continues to do really well.

    我們的廣告支援頻道 IMDb TV 持續表現出色。

  • People really enjoy that.

    人們真的很喜歡這樣。

  • We recently expanded that beyond the U.S. for the first time to the U.K. So a lot of really good and interesting ideas and a lot of opportunities to grow in different ways with video.

    最近,我們首次將其從美國擴展到英國。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的羅斯桑德勒。

  • Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst

    Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst

  • Just 2 for me.

    對我來說只有2個。

  • So you guys are always kind of beating the rest of e-commerce on speed of delivery across a wide set of SKUs.

    因此,你們在各種 SKU 的交付速度上總是擊敗其他電子商務企業。

  • But there's a bunch of these new companies cropping up that are wiring up speedy, same-day delivery for a lot of products from either their own warehouse or from various other retailers.

    但是,湧現出許多新公司,它們正在為來自自己的倉庫或其他零售商的許多產品提供快速的當日送貨服務。

  • Do you view that as a threat?

    您認為這是一種威脅嗎?

  • And you have a same-day offering in 15 cities.

    您在 15 個城市提供當日送達服務。

  • Does your same-day leverage kind of your existing fulfillment center footprint or do you have to kind of rethink the approach to get the speed down to that 30-minute window or wherever it's going to go?

    您的當日達服務是否會利用現有的履行中心足跡,或者您必須重新考慮將速度降低到 30 分鐘窗口或其他任何地方的方法?

  • And the second question is just New World was a huge hit.

    第二個問題是《新世界》非常受歡迎。

  • So just any thoughts high level on the overall strategy within gaming.

    因此,只要對遊戲中的整體策略有任何高層次的想法即可。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll take the second question first related to games.

    我先回答第二個問題,與遊戲有關。

  • So yes, I think, as we mentioned at the top, really excited to get New World out there to more customers' hands and saw some really good momentum and engagement coming out of the gate with customers there on some of the offerings like the Steam platform and Twitch as well.

    所以,是的,我認為,正如我們在頂部提到的,非常高興能夠將 New World 帶到更多客戶手中,並看到一些非常好的動力和客戶參與 Steam 等一些產品的機會。也是如此。

  • But if you step back, I think, look, we've said for a while now that gaming is obviously one of the fastest-growing industries in the entertainment space.

    但如果你退一步,我想,你看,我們已經說過一段時間了,遊戲顯然是娛樂領域成長最快的產業之一。

  • And we find and see a number of different ways to be able to offer some folks a variety of services.

    我們發現並看到了許多不同的方式來為某些人提供各種服務。

  • So we develop and publish games for customers through Amazon Games, which developed that New World.

    因此,我們透過亞馬遜遊戲為客戶開發和發布遊戲,而新世界正是由亞馬遜遊戲開發的。

  • We're also leveraging the flywheel, the Amazon flywheel of offering some exclusive and free content as part of Prime Gaming, so it's part of Prime benefits.

    我們也利用飛輪,亞馬遜飛輪提供一些獨家和免費的內容作為 Prime Gaming 的一部分,所以它是 Prime 福利的一部分。

  • You got AWS and utilizing AWS servers to stream games with our Luna, Amazon Luna offering.

    您獲得了 AWS 並利用 AWS 伺服器透過我們的 Luna、Amazon Luna 產品來串流遊戲。

  • And then as I mentioned before, building this large, engaged, passionate gaming community online with Twitch.

    然後,正如我之前提到的,與 Twitch 建立了這個大型、參與度高、充滿熱情的線上遊戲社群。

  • So again, kind of to my point about a lot of really interesting ideas when we're talking about video in the advertising space.

    再說一次,當我們談論廣告領域的影片時,我的觀點是有很多非常有趣的想法。

  • It's a lot of different areas that can interrelate, serve different communities within the gaming area.

    許多不同的區域可以相互關聯,為遊戲區域內的不同社區提供服務。

  • And so we're going to keep working on that, keep building and listening to customers on the games we've launched and keep pushing forward with an exciting slate in the future.

    因此,我們將繼續努力,繼續開發我們已推出的遊戲並聽取客戶的意見,並在未來繼續推出令人興奮的遊戲。

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • And then your first question on what I'll call ultrafast delivery and other options in the market, we like our model.

    然後你的第一個問題是我所說的超快速交付和市場上的其他選擇,我們喜歡我們的模式。

  • It's a rapidly evolving space.

    這是一個快速發展的空間。

  • And obviously, we're customer-obsessed, but we also are competitor aware.

    顯然,我們以客戶為中心,但我們也了解競爭對手。

  • We like the business that we have.

    我們喜歡我們擁有的業務。

  • We have over 170,000 products that customers, Prime customers can get within 2 hours from Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods Market and other stores that participate with us in over 5,000 cities and towns.

    我們擁有超過 170,000 種產品,Prime 客戶可以在 2 小時內從 Amazon Fresh、Whole Foods Market 以及遍布 5,000 多個城鎮的其他與我們合作的商店獲得這些產品。

  • So we're well on our way to providing ultrafast delivery for things that require ultrafast or things like groceries and others.

    因此,我們正在為需要超快速的物品或雜貨等物品提供超快速的送貨服務。

  • And we see that expanding.

    我們看到這種情況正在擴大。

  • But there'll be room for multiple winners in the space.

    但這個領域將會有多個獲勝者的空間。

  • And as we say, you have to have a cost structure and a logistics network that will pay for the delivery over time.

    正如我們所說,你必須有一個成本結構和一個物流網絡來支付隨著時間的推移而支付的費用。

  • So we see it as part of an offering that we offer to customers that ranges from 2 days to 1 day to 2 hours or 1 hour in some cases.

    因此,我們將其視為我們向客戶提供的服務的一部分,服務時間從 2 天到 1 天到 2 小時,在某些情況下甚至為 1 小時。

  • So we like to meet customers where they are and when they need things, and we're working on speed consistently.

    因此,我們希望在客戶需要時滿足他們的需求,並且我們始終致力於提高速度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的布倫特希爾 (Brent Thill)。

  • Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

    Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

  • On the advertising business, I'm curious, given some of the concerns in the supply chain, have you seen a pullback on the ad side so far or is that something that you're factoring in for the fourth quarter?

    在廣告業務方面,我很好奇,考慮到供應鏈中的一些問題,到目前為止,您是否看到廣告方面出現了回調,或者您是否在第四季度考慮了這一點?

  • Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

    Brian T. Olsavsky - Senior VP & CFO

  • No.

    不。

  • We're actually, again, we're seeing strong growth.

    事實上,我們再次看到了強勁的成長。

  • Obviously, Prime Day is always a really great advertising event as well.

    顯然,Prime Day 也是一個非常棒的廣告活動。

  • And then you saw a little bit of that in Q2 when we had Prime Day in Q2 this year, and we're lapping Prime Day from Q4 of last year.

    然後你在第二季度看到了一些這樣的情況,當時我們在今年第二季度舉辦了 Prime Day,並且我們從去年第四季開始就結束了 Prime Day。

  • So there might be comparable issues, but as far as the strength of the offering and the differential between the growth of the advertising business versus the unit growth, we think we're really resonating with advertisers.

    因此,可能存在類似的問題,但就產品的實力以及廣告業務成長與單位成長之間的差異而言,我們認為我們確實與廣告商產生了共鳴。

  • Working on new products, new ways to advertise, new ways to highlight their brands.

    致力於新產品、新的廣告方式、新的方式來突顯他們的品牌。

  • It's resonating with sellers as well for the same reasons.

    出於同樣的原因,它也引起了賣家的共鳴。

  • And we feel it's additive to the customer experience.

    我們認為它可以增強客戶體驗。

  • It helps customers find curated selection and also see brands that they may not have otherwise seen.

    它可以幫助客戶找到精選的產品,並看到他們可能從未見過的品牌。

  • Dave Fildes - Director of IR

    Dave Fildes - Director of IR

  • Thanks for joining us today on the call and for your questions.

    感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議並提出問題。

  • A replay will be available on our Investor Relations website for at least 3 months.

    我們的投資者關係網站將提供至少 3 個月的重播。

  • We appreciate your interest in Amazon, and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

    我們感謝您對亞馬遜的興趣,我們期待下季再次與您交談。