超微半導體 (AMD) 2002 Q3 法說會逐字稿

At this time, if you a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. As a reminder this is being recorded, Wednesday October 16th 2002. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael [Hosi], Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead sir.

此時，如果您有疑問，請在電話上按 1，然後按 4。提醒一下，這是 2002 年 10 月 16 日星期三的記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Michael [Hosi] 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon. The format of this call will include prepared comments followed by question and answer. The participants of today's call are Hector Ruiz, our President and CEO, Rob Herb, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing and Bob Rivet, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This conference call is a live broadcast and will be replayed on the internet at two sites - www.streetevents.com and of course our own site - www.amd.com. The taped phone replay number for North America is 800 633 8284. Outside of the United States, please dial 402 977 9740. The access code is the same for both - 20930385. Before we begin the call I would like to caution everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements about management's goals, plans and expectations. As you know the semi-conductor industry is generally volatile. Our product and process technology development projects and our manufacturing processes are complex. current economic and industry conditions continue to make it especially difficult to forecast product demand. Because our actual results may differ materially from our plans and expectations today, I encourage you to review our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission where we discuss in detail the risk factors in our business. You will find detailed discussions on our most recent 10 key filing with the SEC. For your finding purposes let me remind you of AMD's analyst day at our Silicon Valley Headquarters on November 7th. At this point, I would like to begin the call and introduce our CEO, Hector Ruiz.

謝謝，下午好。此次通話的形式將包括準備好的評論以及隨後的問答。今天電話會議的參與者包括我們的總裁兼執行長 Hector Ruiz、銷售和行銷執行副總裁 Rob Herb 以及高級副總裁兼財務長 Bob Rivet。本次電話會議將進行現場直播，並在兩個網站上重播 - www.streetevents.com 以及我們自己的網站 - www.amd.com。北美的錄音電話回放號碼是 800 633 8284。美國境外請撥 402 977 9740。兩者的存取代碼相同 - 20930385。在我們開始電話會議之前，我想提醒大家，我們將對管理層的目標、計劃和期望做出前瞻性的陳述。眾所周知，半導體產業總體上是波動的。我們的產品和製程技術開發專案以及製造流程非常複雜。目前的經濟和產業狀況使得預測產品需求變得特別困難。由於我們的實際結果可能與我們今天的計劃和預期有重大差異，我鼓勵您查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，我們在其中詳細討論了我們業務中的風險因素。您將找到有關我們最近向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 10 份關鍵文件的詳細討論。為了方便您查找，請容我提醒您 11 月 7 日 AMD 在矽谷總部舉行的分析師日。現在，我想開始電話會議並介紹我們的執行長 Hector Ruiz。

Thank you Mike. As part of my preferred comments, I would like to start with a discussion of what AMD is doing to address our current financial situation. I will then Bob Rivet to go into more detail on the current quarter and I will finish with some comments on our outlook going forward before taking your questions. In the last few quarters we have outlined for you a set of actions and activities that we believe will properly position AMD for success. And while we remain highly confident about AMD's mid-term and long-term prospect, we are not as confident in the short-term, global economic climate [...] especially the information technology sector. As a result we have accelerated our efforts to more aggressively taking control of our future. I am pleased to report that we are well under way with an aggressive three-stage plan to both get AMD back to financial stability in the short-term while keeping us poised for success going forward. There is one other plan which we have accelerated and expect to complete in the next 90 days is intended to ensure sustainable economic health in the current market. In this phase we have focused on doing 3 key things - rebalancing channel inventories, bolstering our capital structure and reducing our break-even point. Allow me to take a moment to discuss each of this in a bit more detail.

謝謝你，麥克。作為我的優先評論的一部分，我想先討論一下 AMD 正在採取哪些措施來解決我們當前的財務狀況。然後，我將讓鮑勃·裡維特 (Bob Rivet) 更詳細地介紹本季度的情況，並在回答大家的問題之前對我們未來的展望發表一些評論。在過去的幾個季度中，我們為您概述了一系列行動和活動，我們相信這些行動和活動將為 AMD 的成功奠定良好的基礎。儘管我們對 AMD 的中期和長期前景仍然充滿信心，但我們對短期全球經濟環境（尤其是資訊科技領域）卻不那麼有信心。因此，我們加大努力，更積極地掌控我們的未來。我很高興地告訴大家，我們正在順利實施一項積極的三階段計劃，以使 AMD 在短期內恢復財務穩定，同時讓我們為未來的成功做好準備。我們還加快了另一項計劃，預計將在未來 90 天內完成，旨在確保當前市場經濟的可持續健康發展。在這個階段，我們專注於做三件關鍵的事情——重新平衡通路庫存、加強我們的資本結構和降低我們的損益平衡點。請容許我花一點時間更詳細地討論一下這些問題。

First, as we mentioned in the Second Quarter, we began a process of bringing inventories in our PC supply chain more in line with current market demand. We made a decision to accelerate these efforts resulting in a sales adjustment over $100mln in the third quarter. Predictively, this action has had a significant negative effect on our third quarter sales, margins as well as average selling prices. In fact without these actions we believe our third quarter sales would have been greater than $600mln that was reported in the second quarter. Second, while we ended the current quarter with nearly $900mln in the bank, we have taken some important steps to immediately bolster our capital position by reducing our capital spending and securing asset based loans which Bob will discuss in more depth in a few minutes. Third, we have initiated the process of reducing our break-even point by more than $100mln per quarter. We will realize a significant portion of this expense savings starting in the first quarter of 2003 with a full benefit realized in the second quarter of 2003. This phase one activities are well under way and we are confident that we have taken the essential steps necessary to regain economic health in the short-term. Given current progress in these actions and reasonable assumptions about the market trends, we believe it is within our grasp to be operating at break-even by the second quarter of next year. Phase 2 of these efforts which will carry on through the first half of next year will build on the economic momentum of Phase 1. It represents even a more proactive and sustained approach to creating what we call Operational Flexibility, coupled with strong new revenue opportunities. We believe our future at AMD is going to depend on our strategies to create operational flexibility. By definition, our capacity to be much more responsive to both up-turns and downturns in the market we serve without sacrificing our fundamental strategies for success. This was the basis of our innovated joint venture agreement with UNC and it is the reason why we have so efficiently converted our 530-nanometer to 130-nanometers and found 25 from logic to high in memory. And it is the principle we are applying to our extensive management efforts that I described earlier.

首先，正如我們在第二季度所提到的，我們開始使 PC 供應鏈中的庫存更加符合當前的市場需求。我們決定加快這些努力，導致第三季的銷售調整超過 1 億美元。可以預見的是，這項舉措對我們第三季的銷售額、利潤率以及平均售價產生了重大負面影響。事實上，如果沒有這些行動，我們相信第三季的銷售額將超過第二季報告的 6 億美元。其次，雖然本季末我們的銀行存款接近 9 億美元，但我們已採取一些重要措施，透過減少資本支出和獲得資產抵押貸款來立即增強我們的資本狀況，鮑勃將在幾分鐘內對此進行更深入的討論。第三，我們已經啟動了每季降低損益平衡點1億多美元的計畫。從 2003 年第一季開始，我們將實現很大一部分費用節省，並在 2003 年第二季實現全部收益。第一階段的活動正在順利進行，我們相信我們已經採取了必要的措施，以便在短期內恢復經濟健康。鑑於這些行動目前的進展以及對市場趨勢的合理假設，我們相信我們能夠實現明年第二季的收支平衡。第二階段的努力將持續到明年上半年，並將在第一階段的經濟動能的基礎上繼續推進。它代表了一種更積極主動和持續的方法來創造我們所謂的營運靈活性，同時帶來強大的新收入機會。我們相信 AMD 的未來將取決於我們創造營運彈性的策略。根據定義，我們有能力對所服務市場的上升和下降做出更快的反應，同時又不犧牲我們成功的基本策略。這是我們與 UNC 達成創新合資協議的基礎，也是我們如此有效率地將 530 奈米轉換為 130 奈米並在記憶體中從邏輯到高端找到 25 個的原因。這正是我之前描述的我們在廣泛的管理工作中所應用的原則。

Going forward, we are re-engineering our operating models to keep base-line costs down and invest only in areas that either build sustainable competitive advantage or superior customer experience. In short, operational flexibility reflects our commitment to [elevant] cost management from an event to a strategy and we will plan on providing you with more detail on our strategy both creating operational flexibility in our up-coming quarterly sessions.

展望未來，我們正在重新設計我們的營運模式，以降低基準成本，並只在建立可持續競爭優勢或卓越客戶體驗的領域進行投資。簡而言之，營運靈活性反映了我們對從事件到策略的[相關]成本管理的承諾，我們計劃在即將召開的季度會議上向您提供有關我們策略的更多細節，從而創造營運靈活性。

Meanwhile, we have a portfolio of initiatives in place to generate meaningful, incremental new revenue opportunities in the first half of next year. With MirrorBit we have launched a new technology and product cycle into a new market up-turn in the Flash business. In the first half of next year, our China strategy formally kicks into gear based on our recent hiring on a new General Manager and Regional Vice President for China and the relocation of our regional headquarters to Shanghai as well as the formation of our joint venture with the China Basic Education Software Company. And our moves into servers and then [...] with our next generation Hammer architecture will built up on our recent success in the commercial market. Phase 3 of our 3 phased programme is centered around our realization that going forward the conditions for success in the semi-conductor industry have changed and that to survive and thrive then the conductor companies need to deliver new and better value propositions for the customers and their customers' customers. I would like to save the specifics of that conversation for our upcoming annual analyst meeting briefing in early November. At this point I would like ask Bob Rivet to go into additional depth in our occurring quarter results as well as additional details of some of the Phase 1 efforts that I outlined.

同時，我們已製定一系列舉措，以在明年上半年創造有意義的、增量的新收入機會。透過 MirrorBit，我們推出了一項新技術和產品週期，為 Flash 業務帶來了新的市場改善。明年上半年，我們的中國策略將正式啟動，我們近期將聘用新的中國區總經理和區域副總裁，並將區域總部遷至上海，同時也將與中國基礎教育軟體公司成立合資企業。我們進軍伺服器領域以及下一代 Hammer 架構的舉措都將建立在我們近期在商業市場的成功之上。我們的三階段計畫的第三階段圍繞著我們認識到未來半導體產業成功的條件已經發生了變化，為了生存和發展，導體公司需要為客戶及其客戶的客戶提供新的、更好的價值主張。我想將這次談話的具體內容留到我們即將於 11 月初召開的年度分析師會議簡報會上討論。此時，我想請鮑勃·裡維特 (Bob Rivet) 更深入地介紹我們當前季度的業績以及我概述的第一階段的一些工作的更多細節。

Thanks Hector. As detailed in our press release issued this afternoon, third quarter sales were $508mln. This was down 15% compared with second quarter, due primarily to the significant actions we took in the quarter to reduce inventory of AMD microprocessor inventory in the supply chain. Without these actions, third quarter sales would have been in excess of $600mln. The operating loss in the third quarter was £315mln compared with our £301mln loss in the second quarter. A relatively small increase in operating loss giving a $92mln sales decline. We continue to make progress on reducing our break-even point which is now roughly $875mln. The net loss for the third quarter was $254mln or 74¢ per share and compared to the second quarter was impacted by a reduced tax credit of 22% compared with 40% in the second quarter. The reduced tax credit was based on our global profitability dynamics leading to an 18% price change in the tax rate from the second quarter. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, at the 40% rate, the third quarter EPS would have been a 57¢ loss per share or 17¢ improvement from the reported result.

謝謝赫克托。正如我們今天下午發布的新聞稿所述，第三季的銷售額為 5.08 億美元。與第二季相比下降了 15%，這主要歸因於我們在本季度採取了重大措施來減少供應鏈中的 AMD 微處理器庫存。如果沒有這些行動，第三季的銷售額將超過 6 億美元。第三季的營業虧損為 3.15 億英鎊，而第二季的營業虧損為 3.01 億英鎊。營業虧損增加相對較小，導致銷售額下降 9,200 萬美元。我們在降低損益平衡點方面持續取得進展，目前損益平衡點約為 8.75 億美元。第三季淨虧損為 2.54 億美元，即每股 74 美分，與第二季相比，受到稅收抵免減少 22% 的影響，而第二季為 40%。減少稅收抵免是基於我們的全球獲利動態，導致第二季稅率價格變化了 18%。為了進行同類比較，以 40% 的成長率，第三季的每股盈餘將為每股虧損 57 美分，或比報告結果改善 17 美分。

Microprocessor [revenue] was $262mln, a decline of 31% compared with the $380mln in the second quarter. The decline was due to the action taken to lower PC processor inventory in the PC supply chain. In the second quarter it was widely reported we gave a 3 points of market share based on our microprocessor shipments into the channel. However, [Data Quest] [...] PC out of the channel reported that our second quarter share was up 1% to 19% year-on-year and down only 1% from the prior quarter. Based on PC sales we expect to see only minor share loss for the third quarter. In the fourth quarter with most of the inventory management activities behind us, we expect these two waves of measuring share to be much more in line.

微處理器[營收]為 2.62 億美元，與第二季的 3.8 億美元相比下降了 31%。下降的原因是採取了降低 PC 供應鏈中 PC 處理器庫存的措施。據廣泛報道，第二季我們根據微處理器向通路的出貨量獲得了 3 個百分點的市場份額。然而，根據[Data Quest] [...] PC 頻道報道，我們的第二季市佔率年增 1% 至 19%，季減 1%。根據個人電腦的銷售情況，我們預計第三季的市佔率僅會略有下降。在第四季度，隨著大多數庫存管理活動結束，我們預計這兩波衡量份額的浪潮將更加一致。

Revenue with our memory product line was $189mln in the third quarter, up 8% compared with the second quarter. This was a second consecutive quarter of sequential sales improvement. Flash Memory product sales improved in the third quarter based on the strength of the high-end mobile phone market, especially in Asia and Europe. It's consumers are buying featureless phones built with high density, high performance AMD Flash Memory. For the fourth quarter in a row, [...] has increased sequentially and reached a new record level in the third quarter.

我們的記憶體產品線第三季的營收為 1.89 億美元，與第二季相比成長了 8%。這是銷售額連續第二季成長。由於採用高階手機市場（尤其是亞洲和歐洲市場）的強勁成長，快閃記憶體產品銷售在第三季有所改善。消費者購買的是採用高密度、高效能 AMD 快閃記憶體製造的無功能手機。[...] 連續第四個季度環比增長，並在第三季度達到新的歷史水平。

Proforma gross market was 13% for the quarter, it was affected by the steep drop in sales both in units and ESPs of our PC processors. This margin is clearly unacceptable, but it did improve 61/2 percentage points compared with the second quarter. Expense management was on track for a plan. Research and development spending was $221mln for the quarter, up 24% from the prior quarter. The majority of the increase was due to increased Hammer development wavers and FAB 3. [...] an [administering] spending was on plan at $159mln for the quarter, down slightly compared to the second quarter.

本季預測毛市場成長率為 13%，這受到我們 PC 處理器的單位數和 ESP 銷量大幅下降的影響。這個差距顯然是不可接受的，但與第二季相比確實提高了6.5個百分點。費用管理正在按照計劃進行。本季研發支出為 2.21 億美元，較上一季成長 24%。大部分成長是由於 Hammer 開發波動和 FAB 3 的增加。 [...] 本季的 [管理] 支出按計劃為 1.59 億美元，與第二季相比略有下降。

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow, EBITDA in the third quarter was $140mln negative. Year-to-date EBITDA is $93mln negative. Cash balances at the end of the third quarter were at $891mln. This includes a receipt of $108mln in new financing which I will discuss later. Capital expenditures were $196mln compared to $172mln in the second quarter. Year-to-date capital expenditures were $567mln. AMDs inventory was $420mln compared to $380mln in the second quarter with the increase easily split between our Flash and Microprocessing businesses. The microprocessor portion of the increase was due to the supply chain actions we took in the quarter and a build-up in both of our businesses in anticipation of increased unit sales in the fourth quarter. We are comfortable with our current inventory levels. For our modelling purposes we anticipate fourth quarter R & D expenses will remain flat to down slightly compared to the third quarter.

談到資產負債表和現金流，第三季的 EBITDA 為負 1.4 億美元。年初至今的 EBITDA 為負 9,300 萬美元。第三季末的現金餘額為8.91億美元。其中包括 1.08 億美元的新融資，我稍後將討論。資本支出為 1.96 億美元，而第二季為 1.72 億美元。年初至今的資本支出為 5.67 億美元。AMD 的庫存為 4.2 億美元，而第二季為 3.8 億美元，其中成長部分很容易被我們的快閃記憶體和微處理業務分攤。微處理器部分的成長是由於我們在本季採取的供應鏈行動，以及我們兩項業務的成長，預期第四季單位銷售額將會增加。我們對目前的庫存水準感到滿意。為了建立模型，我們預計第四季度的研發費用與第三季相比將保持穩定或略有下降。

I would now like to take a few minutes more to go into specific details regarding our Phase 1 actions as Hector outlined in his remarks. First, we took aggressive action during the third quarter to bring better inventory alignment within our PC supply chain. These inventory management actions include refreshing product and new inventory or swapping old for new and not shipping product into the channel. These are the same type of actions we took in the second quarter, however, the magnitude of the unit reduction in the third quarter was about four times more significant than in the second quarter. We believe the PC supply chain [...] are close to being in balance and we do not anticipate continuing actions at third quarter levels. This has been comprehended in our outlook statement. As Hector described earlier we have already started the process of reducing our operational expense structure by more than 100mln [...]. We will realize a significant portion of these expense savings starting in the first quarter of2003 with the full benefit realized in the second quarter of 2003. For 2003 this action is anticipated to reduce our operating expenses by more than $350mln and will necessitate a restructuring charge in the fourth quarter. We will provide more specific detail on this charge later in the quarter. Operating losses of the magnitude realized in the second and third quarters are unacceptable. The actions we have taken and will be taken are expected to significantly improve our operating model going forward and we expect to be operating at break-even by the second quarter of 2003.

現在，我想花幾分鐘時間詳細介紹赫克託在演講中概述的第一階段行動的具體細節。首先，我們在第三季採取了積極行動，使我們的個人電腦供應鏈中的庫存更加合理。這些庫存管理措施包括更新產品和新庫存或以舊換新，而不是將產品運送到通路。這些與我們在第二季採取的行動相同，但是第三季的產量削減幅度大約是第二季的四倍。我們相信個人電腦供應鏈已接近平衡，我們預計第三季的水準不會繼續下降。我們的展望聲明已對此作出了闡述。正如赫克託之前所描述的，我們已經開始將營運費用結構削減 1 億多英鎊 [...]。從 2003 年第一季開始，我們將實現這些費用節省的很大一部分，並在 2003 年第二季實現全部收益。2003 年，這項措施預計將使我們的營運費用減少 3.5 億美元以上，並將在第四季度產生重組費用。我們將在本季稍後提供有關此項費用的更多具體細節。第二季和第三季出現的如此大規模的經營虧損是不可接受的。我們已經採取和將要採取的行動預計將顯著改善我們未來的營運模式，我們預計到 2003 年第二季將實現收支平衡。

In addition to our planned expense reductions we are taking other significant actions to improve our capital structure. I want to start by reminding you that at the end of the third quarter we have almost $900mln in cash and a $200mln line in credit. But we have taken a number of steps to create in effect a capital insurance policy for ourselves. First, we reduce capital expenditures for 2002 to approximately $750mln from our original plan of $850mln. In the third quarter we negotiated an asset based financing debt instrument of $155mln using FAB 25 as collateral. To date $108mln of this has been received and is included within our third quarter financial statements. The balance will be secured during the fourth quarter. Our forecast for EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2002 will be approximately break-even excluding our restructuring charge. Transitioning to 2003, capital expenditures are expected to be significantly less than our 2002 forecast and specific gains for 2003 capital expenditures will be provided at the November 7th analyst meeting. EBITDA is forecast to be at least $100mln [...] starting in the first quarter of 2003 and will continue to improve as the full effect of the $350mln of cost reductions kick in. The combination of reduced capital expenses, a lower break-even point, an additional source of capital if the company would be at a minimum by cash flow neutral position and a self-sustaining business [rental] by the second quarter of 2003.

除了計劃削減開支外，我們還採取其他重大措施來改善我們的資本結構。首先我想提醒大家，截至第三季末，我們擁有近 9 億美元現金和 2 億美元的信用額度。但我們已採取一系列措施，實際上為我們自己創建了資本保險政策。首先，我們將2002年的資本支出從原計畫的8.5億美元削減至約7.5億美元。第三季度，我們協商了一項價值 1.55 億美元的資產融資債務工具，以 FAB 25 作為抵押。迄今為止，我們已收到其中 1.08 億美元，並已將其納入我們的第三季財務報表。餘額將在第四季得到保障。我們預測，2002 年第四季的 EBITDA（不含重組費用）將大致達到收支平衡。展望 2003 年，預計資本支出將大幅低於我們對 2002 年的預測，2003 年資本支出的具體收益將在 11 月 7 日的分析師會議上提供。從2003 年第一季開始，EBITDA 預計至少將達到1 億美元，隨著3.5 億美元成本削減的全面效應顯現，EBITDA 也將持續改善。 [...]資本支出減少、損益平衡點降低、如果公司在 2003 年第二季之前達到現金流中性狀態且業務（租賃）能夠自我維持，則將有額外的資本來源。

Therefore, with the action being taken we do not need to further improve our capital structure through 2003. However, we have the capacity to raise additional capital if we so choose. We believe that these actions position the company well towards a self-sustaining business model, yet do not majorly affect our planned product grow outs. In summary, poor market conditions prompted us to take additional strong actions to better align microprocessor imagery in the PC supply chain, reduce our break-even point by $100mln per quarter and reduce capital expenditures and bolster our capital structure. We believe these actions will result in the immediate improvement of our operating performance and going forward better conditions for sustainable economic health. Now let me turn it back to Hector.

因此，透過採取這些行動，我們不需要在2003年進一步改善我們的資本結構。然而，如果我們願意的話，我們有能力籌集額外的資金。我們相信，這些舉措將使公司更能走向自我維持的商業模式，但不會對我們的計畫產品成長產生重大影響。總而言之，糟糕的市場環境促使我們採取更多強有力的措施，更好地協調個人電腦供應鏈中的微處理器影像，每季降低 1 億美元的損益平衡點，減少資本支出，增強資本結構。我們相信，這些措施將立即改善我們的經營業績，並為永續的經濟健康創造更好的條件。現在讓我把話題轉回給赫克托。

Thank you Bob. In summary I would like to restate our commitment to bring in AMD back to sustainable economic health. We are well under way with these efforts through an accelerated combination of rebalancing channel inventories, bolstering our capital structure and reducing our break-even points. Our inventory alignment efforts in the PC supply chain in the third quarter were several times out of the second quarter in [...] our two products in the market place. Especially in mobiles where we believe we have held unit market shares and the [...] where we increased shipment by 17%. Based on PC market [seasonality] and a strong big shipment growth [...] current in our Flash Memory business, we believe that our revenues in the fourth quarter will be around 20% higher than the third quarter. We begin the fourth quarter with almost $900mln in cash as Bob has not pointed out, yet our strength in our capital position but reducing capital expenses in the current year by an additional $50mln and will significantly reduce our capital [...] for 2003. In short we are confident that we are completely capitalized through the coming calendar year. We have set a target of reducing our break-even point by $100mln per quarter by the second quarter of next year [gap in tape] over £300mln in reduced operating expenses over the course of the coming year. Again based on our current progress on these actions and reasonable assumptions about market brands, we believe it is within our grasp to be operating at break-even by the second quarter of 2003. Note that despite these actions, they will in no way challenge our commitment to record strategic imperatives. We continue to demonstrate manufacturing excellence as evidenced by the completion ahead of plan for our over 100% convergence to 130-nanometer technology 530. Impressively our yields and 130-nanometer as a percent are the same as they were at 180-nanometers which has resulted in significant [...] way for improvement. We remain on target to start ramping Hammer [...] later this quarter. And our initial 90-nanometer test wafers are looking very encouraging. They are converging of 525 from logic to flash has been [...] and they will play a key role in moving to 130-nanometer in volume Flash production next year.

謝謝你，鮑伯。總而言之，我想重申我們致力於讓 AMD 恢復可持續的經濟健康的承諾。我們正透過加速重新平衡通路庫存、加強資本結構和降低損益平衡點等方式順利進行這些工作。我們在第三季對個人電腦供應鏈的庫存調整是第二季的數倍，因為我們在市場上推出了兩款產品。特別是在行動領域，我們相信我們已經佔據了單位市場份額，並且[...]我們的出貨量增加了 17%。根據 PC 市場的季節性以及我們快閃記憶體業務目前強勁的出貨量成長，我們相信第四季的營收將比第三季高出 20% 左右。正如鮑伯沒有指出的那樣，我們在第四季開始時擁有近 9 億美元的現金，但我們的資本狀況強勁，但今年的資本支出又減少了 5000 萬美元，並將大幅減少 2003 年的資本。簡言之，我們有信心在來年實現完全資本化。我們設定了一個目標，到明年第二季度，每季將損益平衡點降低 1 億美元 [磁帶差距]，並在來年減少超過 3 億英鎊的營運費用。再次，基於我們在這些行動上的當前進展以及對市場品牌的合理假設，我們相信我們能夠在 2003 年第二季度實現收支平衡。請注意，儘管採取了這些行動，但它們絕不會挑戰我們記錄戰略要務的承諾。我們繼續展示卓越的製造能力，證據是我們提前完成向 130 奈米技術 530 的 100% 以上的融合。令人印象深刻的是，我們的 130 奈米產量百分比與 180 奈米產量百分比相同，這為改進帶來了顯著的幫助。 [...]我們仍計劃在本季稍後開始加大對 Hammer 的投資。我們最初的 90 奈米測試晶圓看起來非常令人鼓舞。他們正在將 525 從邏輯技術整合到快閃記憶體技術 [...] 並且他們將在明年向 130 奈米快閃記憶體批量生產過程中發揮關鍵作用。

To conclude, we are looking forward to elevating AMD to a new position of leadership based on a powerful portfolio of Hammer Processors, [...] technology and [...] solutions and we will make sure we are well equipped to achieve that profile in the market. Thank you for your attention and I would now like to turn it back to Mike.

總而言之，我們期待著憑藉強大的 Hammer 處理器、[...] 技術和 [...] 解決方案，將 AMD 提升到新的領導地位，並且我們將確保我們有能力在市場上實現這一目標。感謝您的關注，現在我想把話題轉回給麥克。

Thanks Mike. Operator, we are ready to start the q and a session.

謝謝邁克。接線員，我們準備開始問答環節。

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen if you would like to register a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. You will hear a 3 tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, just press the 1 followed by the 3. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before entering your questions. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from the line of John Barton with Wachovia Securities. Please proceed with your question.

謝謝您，先生。女士們、先生們，如果您想提出問題，請在電話上按 1，然後按 4。您將聽到 3 個提示音來確認您的要求。如果您的問題已得到解答，並且您想撤銷註冊，只需按 1 然後按 3。如果您使用揚聲器電話，請在輸入問題之前拿起聽筒。請稍等片刻回答第一個問題。我們的第一個問題來自美聯銀行證券公司的約翰巴頓。請繼續您的問題。

Yes, good afternoon. Hector you had mentioned that the cost cutting efforts that you are going through are not going to affect manufacturing capacities and that you highlighted FAB 30 and 130-nanometers during transition in the 90. I assume that will start at the beginning of next year. Acknowledging that, could you also talk about the UMC arrangement and if there has been any change there whatsoever?

是的，下午好。赫克托，您曾提到，您正在進行的成本削減措施不會影響製造能力，並且您在 90 年代的過渡期間強調了 FAB 30 和 130 奈米。我認為這將於明年年初開始。既然如此，您能否也談談 UMC 的安排以及那裡是否有任何變化？

Just to refresh your memories, you know the UMC arrangement has three parts to it - one with a very near term part which has to do with qualifying UMC as a source of supply of microprocessors on existing [...]. The second part of that was they joined development efforts where we would jointly look at the evolving technology so that the [...] risk would be capable of supporting our needs of 90-nanometers and beyond and the third effort was the joint venture was 300mm facility out in the year 2005 and beyond in Singapore. None of those things have changed at this moment, we are still on target to qualify, UMC as a potential source of [...] for next year and we are moving forward.

只是為了刷新你的記憶，你知道 UMC 的安排有三個部分 - 其中一個是近期的部分，它與使 UMC 有資格成為現有微處理器的供應來源有關 [...]。第二部分是他們加入了開發工作，我們將共同研究不斷發展的技術，以便[...]風險能夠支持我們對 90 奈米及以上技術的需求，第三部分是合資企業在 2005 年及以後在新加坡建立 300 毫米設施。目前，這些事情都沒有改變，我們仍然朝著獲得資格的目標前進，聯華電子是明年的潛在來源，我們正在向前邁進。

And you commented that for Q4 you are looking at about a 20% sequential increase. Could you give us some idea as to how that is supportive from a back-load perspective today, what do we require in turns, relative to previous quarters?

您評論說，第四季度的環比增長約為 20%。您能否告訴我們，從今天的後期負荷角度來看，這有何支持作用，相對於前幾季，我們需要輪流做些什麼？

This is Rob Herb , maybe I can help with that one. In terms of a back-log sample in Q4, I won't give you specific numbers but I will tell you, we've probably got the strongest back-log going in the quarter in [...] our Flash business and our processor business are [...] in the four and five quarters. I would also like to follow up, you asked a question earlier about our own impact on 130-nanometer and 90-nanometer, on the logic side we are already 100% converted to 130-nanometer in FAB 30. Obviously we will continue the migration of 90-nanometer next year as you suggested. On the memory side the convergence of FAB 25 also is complete to 170-nanometer technology, we will be converting that to 130-nanometer technology which again I believe it's late this year, early next year.

我是 Rob Herb，也許我可以幫忙。就第四季的積壓訂單樣本而言，我不會給你具體的數字，但我會告訴你，我們本季的積壓訂單可能是最強勁的，我們的快閃記憶體業務和處理器業務分別在第四季和第五季。我還想跟進一下，您之前問到我們自己對 130 奈米和 90 奈米的影響，在邏輯方面，我們在 FAB 30 中已經 100% 轉換為 130 奈米。顯然，正如您所建議的，我們明年將繼續進行 90 奈米的遷移。在記憶體方面，FAB 25 也已完成向 170 奈米技術的融合，我們將把它轉換為 130 奈米技術，我相信這將在今年年底或明年年初完成。

Our next question comes from the line of Jack [Garrity] with Gerard Klauer. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gerard Klauer 的 Jack [Garrity]。請繼續您的問題。

Thanks very much. I just wanted to check the inventory section again. I understand it went up to $420mln and with Flash and microprocessors it was about 50/50 increase. You said, if I remember okay, is that needed for the fourth quarter increase in sales, do we look for that inventory level to come down?

非常感謝。我只是想再次檢查庫存部分。據我了解，其價格上漲至 4.2 億美元，而快閃記憶體和微處理器的增幅約為 50/50。您說，如果我沒記錯的話，第四季的銷售額是否需要增加，我們是否希望庫存水準下降？

Yes, this is Bob. Those inventories are required for our fourth quarter sales plan. I anticipate they will be slightly less at the end of the fourth quarter than they are now.

是的，我是鮑伯。這些庫存是我們第四季度銷售計劃所必需的。我預計第四季末的數字會比現在略低。

Yes from a sales standpoint, we are clearly focused on two areas, we introduced our MirrorBit technology and obviously made great progress resulting from the market share in the wireless or cellular phone business. If we acted this year I think we are going to have the highest markets we've ever had in the cellular handset market and clearly the rampant inventories in [A & G] are to support that and the MirrorBit activities. From a MirrorBit perspective we shipped tens of thousands units a year in year three and we expect the plan currently to ship somewhere around the million in the fifth quarter, so a lot of that inventory is built on that ramp. On the processor side, we've [...] delay in getting the volumes we want at a [24,000 plus] in those products. As we enter into Q4 again there, we have the ability to manufacture more than 2mln units at 24,000 plus and above, it's actually more than I think the market can absorb, but much of the inventory build is on getting [...] process for that product for the market place in Q4 and it's why we are projecting our Q4 outlook as we did.

是的，從銷售角度來看，我們明確專注於兩個領域，我們推出了 MirrorBit 技術，並且顯然在無線或手機業務的市場份額上取得了巨大進步。如果我們今年採取行動，我認為我們將在蜂窩手機市場擁有有史以來最高的市場份額，而且顯然 [A & G] 的大量庫存將支持這一目標以及 MirrorBit 活動。從 MirrorBit 的角度來看，我們第三年每年出貨量達數萬台，我們預計目前的計劃是第五季度出貨量達到百萬台左右，因此許多庫存都是在這個基礎上建立的。在處理器方面，我們[...] 延遲獲得我們想要的這些產品的[24,000 以上] 的數量。當我們再次進入第四季度時，我們有能力生產超過 200 萬台，產量在 24,000 台以上，實際上這超過了我認為市場可以吸收的量，但大部分庫存建設都是為了在第四季度為市場提供該產品的流程，這就是我們對第四季度前景做出預測的原因。

Just one follow-up. You know we obviously listened to the Intel call yesterday and they were a little bit more conservative relative to the overall market. I'm just curious, you guys obviously think you're going to take market share, I suppose if you think you're going to increase your sales gains 20% sequentially, is that a fair assumption?

僅一個後續行動。您知道，我們昨天顯然聽取了英特爾的電話會議，相對於整體市場，他們的態度更為保守。我只是好奇，你們顯然認為自己會佔領市場份額，我想如果你們認為你們的銷售額會連續增加 20%，這是一個合理的假設嗎？

Well I believe it's true, let me modify it a little bit for you or [...] it a little bit for you. You know clearly the market share question is initially one [...] argument of shipments in versus PC sales out. From PC sales out standpoint, if you look at the Data Quest numbers as Bob I think mentioned, you know we were actually up year-on-year on the most recently reported Q2 data and our market share was something like 19%, that is down to our all time highs which was actually in Q1 2002 which was 19.7%, so less than a percentage point down. And in Q3 well our shipment again, are obviously significantly lower than we like and we will move share on that measure, I think you can see a similar result, I think the actual PC consumption rate, the [...] processors is likely to up from Q2 and I don't think we'll have lost any share, if we did it would be a very modest amount. In Q4 I think you're going to see both our shipments in and the PC processors sales out more closely aligned and I actually believe that in Q4 we have a strength and position relative to our offering with the Model 24,000 plus and above again with the ability of a couple of million units, that allows us to play in a broader segment of the market. I think the big question is how much market demand is there for those high performance desktop PCs. That's not totally clear now and that was my only hedge on where we're heading.

嗯，我相信這是真的，讓我為你修改一下，或[...]為你修改一下。您清楚地知道，市佔率問題最初是出貨量與 PC 銷售量之間的爭論點。從 PC 銷售的角度來看，如果你看一下 Data Quest 的數據，我想 Bob 也提到過，你就會知道，根據最近報告的第二季度數據，我們的銷售額實際上同比增長了，我們的市場份額約為 19%，這低於我們的歷史最高水平，即 2002 年第一季度的 19.7%，因此下降幅度不到一個百分點。而在第三季度，我們的出貨量顯然再次明顯低於我們的預期，我們將根據這一指標調整份額，我想你會看到類似的結果，我認為實際的 PC 消費率，[...] 處理器可能會從第二季度開始上升，我認為我們不會失去任何份額，如果真的失去了，那也只是很小的損失。在第四季度，我認為你會看到我們的出貨量和 PC 處理器的銷售額更加接近，而且我實際上相信，在第四季度，我們在 24,000 型及以上型號的產品方面具有優勢和地位，擁有數百萬台的銷量能力，這使我們能夠在更廣泛的市場領域發揮作用。我認為最大的問題是這些高效能桌上型電腦的市場需求有多大。現在情況還不完全清楚，而這是我對我們前進方向的唯一判斷。

The next question comes from the line of Jo [Oshay] of Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自美林證券的 Jo [Oshay]。請繼續您的問題。

Hi thanks. Bob, looking at the inventory and then looking at the gross margin and obviously you are looking for some Q4 improvement, but it looks like yes, you are making things at a higher rate than you are selling them here in the third quarter, so some of that sort of theoretical improvement and gross margin is already impounded in the current number right? Or am I missing something?

嗨，謝謝。鮑勃，查看庫存，然後查看毛利率，顯然您希望第四季度有所改善，但看起來是的，您在第三季度的生產速度高於銷售速度，因此部分理論上的改善和毛利率已經包含在當前數字中了，對嗎？或者我遺漏了什麼？

No you're right. I mean we built the inventory in the quarter which is the [...] costs.

不，你是對的。我的意思是我們在本季度建立了庫存，這就是[...]成本。

So I guess as I look at this, can you help me understand maybe with that in mind, assuming that we do say get back to this $600mln number at the top line in the fourth quarter where we might want to think about gross margin?

所以我想，當我看到這一點時，你能幫助我理解嗎？假設我們確實說在第四季回到 6 億美元的營收數字，我們可能要考慮毛利率？

Jo, as you know we don't try to give any granularity on gross margins since our numbers can swing wildly with just a couple of million dollars of movement in unit sales, but we continue to make progress on lowering the break-even point and we did from second to third, we will make progress from third to fourth. We do also as Rob said, we will have a much richer mix, which I place in the equation that gross margins should go north.

喬，如你所知，我們不會試圖給出毛利率的任何細節，因為我們的數字可能隨著單位銷售額數百萬美元的變動而發生劇烈波動，但我們在降低盈虧平衡點方面繼續取得進展，我們已經從第二名上升到第三名，我們將從第三名上升到第四名。正如羅布所說，我們也將擁有更豐富的產品組合，我將其納入毛利率應該上升的方程式中。

To confirm my notes, you did say that your EBITs you will break-even at the EBIT level was going to drop by $100mln during the fourth quarter, is that right?

為了確認我的記錄，您確實說過，在第四季度，您的息稅前利潤（EBIT）將下降 1 億美元，對嗎？

That's right, it will improve. [...] levels to break-even in the fourth quarter excluding the special charge we will have to take.

沒錯，會改善的。 [...] 度，如果不計入我們必須承擔的特殊費用，我們將在第四季度實現收支平衡。

Excluding the special charge. Okay thank you very much.

不包括特殊費用。好的，非常感謝。

The next question comes from the line of Adam Parker with Sanford Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自桑福德伯恩斯坦的亞當帕克。請繼續您的問題。

Hi. You guys said that your break-even point looks like it's 8.75 now and then you are going to maybe lower it to 7.75 in Q2, if I'm understanding you right. Consensus if you look at the analysts are currently at $618mln revenue for Q2 so it looks like revenues are approximately 25% lower than your break-even point. So I'm just trying to figure out where you think the upside is coming from versus the consensus opinion of the average analyst in terms of revenue growth from here to Q2?

你好。你們說現在你們的損益平衡點看起來是 8.75，如果我理解正確的話，你們可能會在第二季將其降低到 7.75。如果你看一下分析師的共識，你會發現第二季的營收目前為 6.18 億美元，因此看起來營收比損益平衡點低約 25%。因此，我只是想弄清楚，與普通分析師對從現在到第二季度的收入成長的普遍看法相比，您認為上行潛力來自哪裡？

Let me make some comments on Flash and then I'll ask Rob to comment a little bit on microprocessors. We have started oh maybe a year ago to try to enhance our relationship with Fujitsu to become a much stronger competitor in the marketplace and gain in areas where perhaps we had not participated as much before. That has worked well, continues to work well and going forward this enhanced relationship I believe is only going to get stronger, [...] to introduce technology faster, better, have the capacity in place to respond to ups and downs a little more flexible. That has resulted in our somewhat more bullish outlook on Flash going forward, beginning this quarter even though we have increased the last two quarters sequentially, we expect that rate to go up, you know quite significantly more in this fourth quarter coming up. We are looking at that success in the marketplace where our new technology and new products to continue to gain share and those are areas where we in the past we haven't been as strong, namely wireless. The strong areas where we have strong up to now which is [...] we continue to be a strong player there and frankly the content of Flash and [...] is going up dramatically even although unit sales in [...] perhaps may not be going up, the content of Flash is going up phenomenally and we are key player to some of the leading ace technology companies in the [...] electronics business. So I guess it's a fairly optimistic outlook on our Flash line and I would like to ask Rob to comment on the microprocessors.

讓我對 Flash 發表一些評論，然後我會請 Rob 對微處理器發表一些評論。大約一年前，我們就開始嘗試加強與富士通的關係，以成為市場上更強大的競爭對手，並在以前可能沒有參與過的領域取得進展。這種做法一直行之有效，而且將繼續行之有效，我相信，未來這種加強的關係只會更加牢固，[...] 能夠更快、更好地引進技術，並有能力更加靈活地應對各種起伏。這使得我們對 Flash 未來的前景更加樂觀，從本季度開始，儘管我們在過去兩個季度中連續增加了 Flash 的銷量，但我們預計這一增長率將在即將到來的第四季度大幅上升。我們期待在市場上取得成功，我們的新技術和新產品將繼續獲得份額，而這些領域是我們過去並不那麼強大的，即無線領域。我們迄今為止最強勢的領域是 [...] 我們將繼續在該領域保持強勢地位，坦白說，Flash 的內容和 [...] 正在大幅增長，儘管單位銷售額可能沒有增長，但 Flash 的內容正在顯著增長，我們是電子行業一些領先的王牌技術公司的關鍵參與者。因此，我認為我們的 Flash 產品線前景相當樂觀，我想請 Rob 對微處理器進行評論。

So are you saying that Flash is going to grow more in Q4 than microprocessors with that statement?

那麼，您是說 Flash 在第四季的成長速度將超過微處理器嗎？

No, I didn't say that, what I said is relative to Flash itself [talking over] single digit growth we are now going into the fourth quarter where we expect at least twice that rate.

不，我沒有這麼說，我說的是相對於 Flash 本身的個位數成長，我們現在進入第四季度，我們預計這個成長率至少是這個數字的兩倍。

The Flash business is clearly continuing the ramp and we are pretty bullish on the 2003 prospect both for the cell phone market and with the increasing focus on our MirrorBit shipments which is clearly a terrific product for us. On the processor side of the business you know we are obviously expecting to see growth moving in Q3. If you look into 2003, our competitive position again continues to look pretty solid, both in the desktop state and the mobile states we continue to do well and I think the server state offers and opportunity where we saw growth from Q2 to Q3 at the depressed levels we talked about. Again as we go forward into Q4 and with the pre-production of the Hammer bit processors next year, I think it gives us some opportunity to increase the revenues on that side as well. Clearly as you did the maths there is some opportunity to achieve break-even and that's clearly our goal at this point in time and that would require some top-line growth.

Flash 業務顯然持續成長，我們對 2003 年的前景非常樂觀，無論是手機市場還是對 MirrorBit 出貨量的日益關注，這對我們來說顯然是一款非常棒的產品。在處理器業務方面，我們顯然預期第三季會出現成長。如果你回顧 2003 年，你會發現我們的競爭地位仍然相當穩固，無論是在桌面領域還是在行動領域，我們都表現良好，我認為伺服器領域也提供了機會，我們看到從第二季度到第三季度的成長處於我們之前談到的低迷水平。隨著我們進入第四季度，並且明年開始預生產 Hammer 鑽頭處理器，我認為這也為我們增加了一些收入。顯然，正如您所計算的，存在實現收支平衡的機會，這顯然是我們目前的目標，並且需要一定的營收成長。

Okay so the 7.75 is sort of a correct rough benchmark for Q2 revenue if your assumption on break-even comes true?

好的，如果您對損益平衡的假設成真，那麼 7.75 就是一種正確的 Q2 收入粗略基準嗎？

No the correct benchmark is we claim that if those revenues are at 7.75 we will break-even.

不，正確的基準是我們聲稱如果這些收入達到 7.75 我們將實現收支平衡。

Okay one last point, sorry. How much an increase do you think you need in IT spending on PCs and workstations next year to get to your sort of internal view of the 2003 revenues?

好的，最後一點，抱歉。您認為明年個人電腦和工作站的 IT 支出需要增加多少才能達到您對 2003 年收入的內部預期？

Yes, 2003, certainly at this point in time doesn't look like it's going to be a hugely robust market. We do think we've got some opportunity there, I probably would defer comments on our overall 2003 outlook until our analyst conference on November 7th, where we are going to talk about 2003 market strategy.

是的，2003 年，從目前來看，它看起來還不是一個非常強勁的市場。我們確實認為我們在那裡有一些機會，我可能會推遲對我們 2003 年整體前景的評論，直到 11 月 7 日的分析師會議，我們將在會上討論 2003 年的市場策略。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Thornhill with UBS Warburg. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀華寶的湯姆索恩希爾 (Tom Thornhill)。請繼續您的問題。

Thank you. Can you elaborate a little bit more on the cost actions that are going to take place next year and what that impact is going to have on cash flow. You mentioned you were going to take CAPEX down and you are going to take some actions on the operating level. Would that imply that you should be positive cash flow in the second half of the year as you cross break-even here in the second quarter?

謝謝。您能否詳細說明明年將採取的成本行動以及這些行動對現金流的影響？您提到您將要降低資本支出，並且您將在營運層面採取一些行動。這是否意味著當您在第二季度實現收支平衡時，下半年的現金流量應該為正？

Yes, most of the cost reduction activities will be cash based activities, so we will be taking cash expenditures off the [...] both in capital expenditures and in operating expenses to lower the break-even point. We are working on a path to have full realization of those efforts by the second quarter and we will have actually positive EBITDA in the second quarter and very positive EBITDA in the back half o next year, therefore total positive cash flow, also with our reduced capital expenditures. As I kind of said, we are trying to work ourselves into a self-funding model where we don't have to go to the capital market unless we want to.

是的，大多數成本削減活動將以現金為基礎，因此我們將從資本來源和營運支出中扣除現金支出，以降低損益平衡點。我們正在努力在第二季度全面實現這些努力，並且我們在第二季度將實現正的 EBITDA，在明年下半年實現非常正的 EBITDA，因此總現金流為正，同時我們的資本支出也減少了。正如我所說的，我們正在嘗試建立自籌資金模式，除非我們願意，否則我們不必進入資本市場。

Can you elaborate a little bit about which line items are going to be most impacted, you talked about reducing the overall operating expenses by $100mln by Q2 and I didn't quite understand the number for the year, it was three hundred and something? Can you elaborate on that number and in which line items really starts to show up whether it's SGNA or at cost of sales or R & D?

您能否詳細說明哪些項目將受到最大影響，您談到到第二季度將整體營運費用減少 1 億美元，而我不太明白全年的數字，是三百多美元？您能否詳細說明一下這個數字以及哪些項目真正開始顯示出來，無論是 SGNA 還是銷售成本或研發成本？

Yes, I've actually accepted the challenge to lead this programme called operational flexibility to AMD where we are looking at the business model and we are actually looking at all parts of the company and I will tell you [...] which pieces it's coming from today, that we are looking at all aspects of the company and the only thing that remains untouchable is our continued technology development and product development so that we achieve our product growing schedule. So other than those two areas, all aspects of the company we are looking at, you will see cost reductions take place in just about every other [...] in the company.

是的，我實際上已經接受了領導這個名為「營運靈活性」的 AMD 專案的挑戰，我們正在研究商業模式，實際上也在研究公司的各個部分，我會告訴你 [...] 它來自哪些部分，我們正在研究公司的各個方面，唯一不變的是我們的持續技術開發和產品開發，以便我們實現產品增長計劃。因此，除了這兩個領域之外，我們正在關注的公司各個方面，你會看到公司幾乎所有其他方面的成本都在降低。

The total number for the year was mentioned in the call as three hundred, but I didn't catch the whole number?

電話裡說今年的總人數是三百，但我沒聽清楚總數？

$350mln.

3.5億美元。

$350mln. So sort of like $50mln in Q1 and then $100mln per quarter for the last three quarters?

3.5億美元。那麼，第一季的金額大概是 5,000 萬美元，之後三個季度每季的金額大概是 1 億美元？

That's close enough.

這已經夠接近了。

The next question comes from the line of Scott Randall with SoundView Technologies. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自 SoundView Technologies 的 Scott Randall。請繼續您的問題。

Great, thanks very much. Bob, I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about what the unit trends were last quarter and then also the assumptions on both unit and pricing for next quarter to get to that 20% target price?

太好了，非常感謝。鮑勃，我想知道您是否可以再多談談上個季度的單位趨勢，以及下個季度的單位和定價假設，以達到 20% 的目標價格？

Again there is growth in both sides of our business, so I will try to split it up here a little bit. Take a look at the Flash business, the largest single segment still driving growth is the cellular phone market. We are expecting a fairly robust fourth quarter in that particular segment. I will also make the comment that we saw growth in our Flash business across all geographies around the world in Q3 with the exception of the Americas, the Americas are still lightly impacted by the network infrastructure business which is just awful and the fact that we are still seeing quite a bit of migration off-shore, some of the outsourcing that's being done in all segments of the business. But in Q4 I think the Flash growth is largely fuelled by the ramp of the MirrorBit technology and the market share gains and growth we expect to see in the cellular market which is largely due to the seasonal patterns you see there.

我們的業務的兩個方面都再次實現了成長，因此我將嘗試在這裡稍微進行一下劃分。看看 Flash 業務，仍在推動成長的最大單一市場是手機市場。我們預計該領域第四季業績將相當強勁。我還要說的是，我們在第三季度看到全球所有地區的 Flash 業務都實現了增長，但美洲除外，美洲仍然受到網絡基礎設施業務的輕微影響，這非常糟糕，而且我們仍然看到相當多的業務向海外遷移，一些業務正在所有業務部門進行外包。但在第四季度，我認為 Flash 的成長很大程度上受到 MirrorBit 技術的推動，以及我們預計在蜂巢市場看到的市場份額成長和成長，這很大程度上是由於您在那裡看到的季節性模式。

On the processor side, the biggest [...] for growth is quite frankly that much of the inventory actions we have taken are behind us. We now get back to the mode of selling contemporary product into a contemporary marketplace and actually being able to ramp our 24,000 plus and above products into the marketplace. Again, I don't think we are going to be limited by our ability to produce products and put it in the marketplace, I think we are going to be limited by how much demand there is in the marketplace for the high end desktop space and in particular processors. I think the mobile business will continue to grow and I think the server business looks pretty strong. I also believe that some of the changes we have made in China and with our Asian go-to-market scheme, we actually have some opportunity to look after some business in Asia we have not participated in to a great extent over these last couple of quarters as well. That's sort of how I see the opportunities. From a PC standpoint, in Q4 I still think that PC shipments are going to be up which we would expect with the seasonability, I think it's probably going to be at the lower end of the range, I think we're going to see, well I think we're going to see something, I [...] say between 10% and 14%. What that means for CPU unit shipment typically in the fourth quarter that would mean CPU units shipments are going to be up somewhere between 8% and 12% is my guess.

在處理器方面，最大的[...]成長坦白說是我們採取的大部分庫存行動已經過去了。我們現在回到了將當代產品銷售到當代市場的模式，並且實際上能夠將我們的 24,000 多種產品推向市場。再說一次，我認為我們不會受到生產產品和將其投放到市場的能力的限制，我認為我們會受到市場對高階桌上型電腦空間和特定處理器的需求量的限制。我認為行動業務將繼續成長，伺服器業務看起來相當強勁。我還相信，我們在中國做出的一些改變以及我們的亞洲市場進入計劃，實際上讓我們有機會照顧一些我們在過去幾個季度中沒有大量參與的亞洲業務。這就是我對機會的看法。從個人電腦的角度來看，在第四季度，我仍然認為個人電腦的出貨量將會上升，這是我們預期的季節性因素，我認為它可能會處於該範圍的低端，我認為我們會看到，好吧，我認為我們會看到一些東西，我 [...] 說在 10％ 到 14％ 之間。這對於第四季的 CPU 單元出貨量來說意味著，我猜測 CPU 單元出貨量將成長 8% 到 12% 之間。

Any your last question was what does that mean for [ASTs]? I don't particularly see any anomalies relative to [AST], we seem to be on a fairly stable and continuing pricing curve to all [ASTs], I don't think that's going to change as we go into the fourth quarter.

您的最後一個問題是，這對 [AST] 意味著什麼？我沒有特別看到與 [AST] 相關的任何異常，我們似乎對所有 [AST] 都處於相當穩定和持續的定價曲線上，我認為進入第四季度後這種情況不會改變。

Right, I wonder if I could ask one more follow up question on all of this. Can you talk more about the Hammer schedule on [milestones] and where the confidence level is right now on keeping the schedule?

好的，我想知道我是否可以就這一切再問一個後續問題。您能否詳細談談 Hammer 的 [里程碑] 計劃以及目前對保持計劃的信心水平？

Yes, first of all Hammer, we did announce yesterday and the Microprocessor Forum we actually released our first test results on a 2GHz albeit pre-production [...] and the benchmarks were quite good. We got a second SPECinc score of 1202 and a SPECfp score of 1170 and if you just put that in the comparison, that's about 20% better than a Zeon running at 2.8GHz. We clearly think we're on track as to the capability of what this product can deliver. Relative to the schedule, we are currently looking at mid first half 2003, our initial shipments to products we are focused right now on the server states, we think the server state gives us the best opportunity in particular to break into the enterprise class customers which we want to break into. It also gives us the area that is absolutely the clean kill, it by far would be the best server product available in the market. You will hear a little more this quarter and some as we go into Q1 and I'm not going to be the first to disclose them but I will tell you that as we look at our [...] measurements and as we look at net benchmark measurements, in both cases I think we are going to have a superior performance product whatever it is implemented in the market at that time. So we are feeling pretty bullish about the opportunity there, the schedule issue [...] complex product, we believe we are on schedule for that mid first half kind of time frame, if we keep driving forwards it would mean our initial shipments would be late Q1 early Q2 kind of time frame and as of right now really they look good.

是的，首先是 Hammer，我們昨天確實宣布了這一點，並且在微處理器論壇上我們實際上發布了我們在 2GHz 上的第一次測試結果，儘管是預生產 [...] 而且基準測試結果相當不錯。我們得到的第二個 SPECinc 得分為 1202，SPECfp 得分為 1170，如果僅將其進行比較，那麼它比運行在 2.8GHz 上的 Zeon 大約好 20%。我們清楚地認為，我們已經充分了解了該產品所能提供的功能。相對於時間表，我們目前正在考慮 2003 年上半年中期，我們最初的產品出貨量目前集中在伺服器狀態，我們認為伺服器狀態為我們提供了最好的機會，特別是打入我們想要打入的企業級客戶。它還為我們提供了絕對乾淨利落地殺死的區域，它是迄今為止市場上最好的伺服器產品。您將在本季度聽到更多消息，當我們進入第一季時，您還會聽到一些消息，我不會第一個透露這些信息，但我可以告訴您，當我們查看我們的[...]測量值和淨基準測量值時，我認為無論當時在市場上實施什麼，我們都將擁有性能卓越的產品。因此，我們對那裡的機會、時間表問題以及複雜的產品非常樂觀，我們相信我們將按照計劃在上半年中期完成，如果我們繼續向前推進，這意味著我們的初始出貨量將在第一季末至第二季度初的某個時間範圍內，截至目前，情況看起來確實不錯。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim [Mayhan] with Crédit Suisse First Boston. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓的 Tim [Mayhan]。請繼續您的問題。

Thanks. Can you tell us how many new microprocessor units you actually shipped in the third quarter and what the potential sales adjustment charge could be in the fourth quarter, ballpark?

謝謝。您能否告訴我們您在第三季實際出貨了多少新的微處理器，以及第四季的潛在銷售調整費用大概是多少？

Well I'm not expecting any sales adjustment charge in the fourth quarter. I don't think we will get into the specific units we've shipped [...] competitors never wants to release their information. We certainly, I will confirm though that our unit shipments were depressed as a result of those actions and from the unit shipments into the channels you will see the decrease in market share, but again I don't think it's going to impact on a relative position in the marketplace as measured by Q3 that our ship based on A & D processor technology. In other words there was plenty of inventory out there for the PCs to be built.

我預計第四季不會有任何銷售調整費用。我認為我們不會透露我們已經發貨的具體數量[...]競爭對手從來不願意透露他們的資訊。當然，我可以確認，由於這些行動，我們的單位出貨量有所下降，從進入通路的單位出貨量來看，你會看到市場份額的下降，但我再次認為，這不會影響到以第三季度衡量的基於 A&D 處理器技術的出貨量的市場相對地位。換句話說，市場上有充足的庫存可供製造個人電腦。

Is this going to be a new policy from AMD that you won't be disclosing [...] shipments quarterly?

這是否會成為 AMD 的一項新政策，即你們不會每季揭露出貨量？ [...]

Yes, we would like to get out of that discussion and move it to the industry analysts and their measurements of what happens there I guess.

是的，我想我們想結束這個討論，轉而討論行業分析師以及他們對那裡發生的事情的衡量。

Okay and I guess you have put some pretty aggressive numbers or very specific numbers on your forecast for next year on a break point. I am curious, kind of leading back to some questions that have been asked previously, is what was your [unicore] consumption for PCs in Q1 and Q2 to hit that break point in Q2 because I think given that you have given very specific information, you must have something in mind of what you think PC [unicore] is going to be in those two quarters to hit that number?

好的，我想您在對明年的預測中已經給出了一些非常激進的數字或非常具體的數字。我很好奇，這有點回到之前問過的一些問題，即您的 [unicore] 在第一季度和第二季度的 PC 消耗量是多少，才能在第二季度達到這個斷點，因為我認為鑑於您給出了非常具體的信息，您一定對 PC [unicore] 在這兩個季度的消耗量是多少有所了解，才能達到這個數字？

We actually do as I said earlier, we are going to share some of our strategy and plans both on the market, product and technology perspective. On November 7th as we agreed here earlier, I'm going to hold off and have those discussions as part of what I talk about on the 7th.

正如我之前所說，我們將從市場、產品和技術角度分享我們的一些策略和計劃。正如我們之前在這裡達成的一致，11 月 7 日，我將推遲這些討論，並將其作為 7 日討論內容的一部分。

Okay, I'll try one more and maybe you will answer this one. Did you guys lose less money in Flash in the third quarter than you did in the second quarter?

好的，我再試一次，也許你會回答這個問題。你們第三季在 Flash 上的虧損比第二季少嗎？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

And just finally, what percent of your Flash shipped during the quarter was MirrorBit.

最後，本季出貨的 Flash 中有多少百分比是 MirrorBit。

A very small percentage, we shipped tens of thousands of units in the quarter of MirrorBit, this the first quarter of real production ramp, our plan is for over 1mln units.

只佔很小的比例，我們在 MirrorBit 本季度出貨了數萬台，這是實際生產增長的第一季度，我們的計劃是超過 100 萬台。

Our next question comes from the line of Evan [du Bais] with LRL Capital. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自 LRL Capital 的 Evan [du Bais]。請繼續您的問題。

Thank you, can you go into the financing a little bit and just give us the numbers again and describe that a little bit?

謝謝，您能否稍微談一下融資情況，再給我們一些數字並稍微描述一下？

From what perspective?

從什麼角度來看？

Who was the counter party and how is this going to work in the time line and all this other stuff, I think I got the number right, it was $108mln?

交易對手是誰，這將如何在時間線上進行以及所有其他事情，我想我的數字是正確的，是 1.08 億美元？

$108mln of assets financing we secured in the third quarter. The total plan we were working towards is about $155mln, we will secure the rest of it in the fourth quarter. I guess I'd rather not at this point discuss who is leading the effort, but it's your typical people that do that kind of asset financing kind of activity. But we still have a little bit more to do before the end of the quarter.

我們在第三季獲得了1.08億美元的資產融資。我們計劃的總金額約為 1.55 億美元，我們將在第四季度籌集剩餘資金。我想我現在不想討論誰在領導這項工作，但典型的人就是從事這種資產融資活動的人。但在本季結束之前我們還有一些工作要做。

I hear you. So if I take that out, that means that cash flow was about $300mln gross of that right?

我聽見了。所以如果我把它拿出來，那就意味著現金流總額約為 3 億美元，對嗎？

Correct, yes from the one, one down to that, that's right.

正確，是的，從一開始，一直到那一點，沒錯。

And then for next quarter, what are you guys thinking for cash flow?

那麼對於下個季度，你們對現金流有什麼看法？

Well EBITDA based on what we think sales are going to be, the actions that we are going to do to continue progress and break-even, etc, etc, we think EBITDA will be close to break-even excluding the special charge. So there's maybe going to be less cash [...] on an ongoing basis.

嗯，EBITDA 基於我們對銷售額的預測、我們為繼續進步和收支平衡將採取的行動等等，我們認為 EBITDA 將接近收支平衡（不包括特殊費用）。因此，現金可能會持續減少。

See the one thing I maybe it will become more clear to me on November 7th, but the one thing I just don't understand at the moment is how you don't feel you are going to tap the capital markets in 2003, unless your CAPEX and your business model is going to completely change?

看到一件事，也許我會在 11 月 7 日更加清楚這一點，但目前我不明白的一件事是，除非你的資本支出和商業模式徹底改變，否則你怎麼會覺得你不會在 2003 年進入資本市場？

Well I think you need to play through the numbers we just talked about of $350mln of cost reduction which you play through, reduced capital expenditures and what that yields from our change in cash balance requirement.

好吧，我認為你需要仔細考慮一下我們剛才談到的 3.5 億美元的成本削減數字，減少資本支出，以及這從我們的現金餘額要求變化中產生什麼效果。

And none of those expansions will be associated with the stuff that was delayed, potentially delay Hammer or anything?

這些擴充都不會與被延遲的內容相關，可能會延遲 Hammer 或其他任何東西？

No of course not.

不，當然不是。

Okay, thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of David Woo with Wedbush Morgans Security. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Morgans Security 的 David Woo。請繼續您的問題。

Yes, I just have two questions. Number one on the capital expenditure numbers, if it comes down to 7.50 I assume that with your UMC relationship on .13 for K7, that number could be dramatically lower in 2003 relative to 2002 7.50, did I get that correct?

是的，我只有兩個問題。首先，關於資本支出數字，如果降至 7.50，我假設由於您與 UMC 的關係，K7 的比例為 0.13，因此 2003 年的該數字相對於 2002 年的 7.50 可能會大幅降低，我的理解對嗎？

That is exactly one of the motivations for doing the UMC relationship is that should we need additional volume beyond where we can internally produce, we can do it without any significant capital outlet.

這正是我們與 UMC 合作的動機之一，如果我們需要超出內部生產能力的額外產量，我們可以在不投入大量資金的情況下實現。

Okay. The second thing is can you help me a little bit on this, I never quite understood why there was this channel correction, because from what I remember there was never in history much of these kind of things or at least nothing of that significant magnitude that we see in Q2 and Q3 of this year?

好的。第二件事是，您能否在這方面幫我一點忙，我一直不太明白為什麼會出現這種管道調整，因為據我記得，歷史上從來沒有發生過這種事情，或者至少沒有發生過像今年第二季度和第三季度那樣重大的事情？

Yes, well this is Rob Herb David, I'll take the [...] for that, call it a lack of foresight, I can tell you that in Q1 we had a pretty bullish quarter and we were projecting Q2 and Q3 to be a lot better than they ended up being, so most of that was an error in my part in [...] to what we thought the market was going to be. And I won't take all the blame, I mean our customers were telling us some of the same things at that point in time. So if you look at our shipment rate and what customers were holding, what it was and you know PCs finished, the inventory of our processors were various levels of the channel, the people who supply those guys, you know we were clearly in a situation where both in Q4 and Q1 [...] shipments far outtakes PCs hold in that timeframe and unfortunately what we had been projecting for Q2 and again for Q3 while Q3 was up from Q2, I will tell you that both Q2 and Q3 were well below the expectations we had in the first quarter of this year. So at that point in time, we made the decision, you know, in a normal course of affairs, you will see as the business picks back up you absorb that on a quarterly basis, you know over several quarters at some kind of run-rate. Well we got in a position where we decided we were going to take decisive action [...] that as this market does recover, we have the opportunity to make sure our customers and all of our channel partners have the material required in the contemporary market with the precious material possible.

是的，我是 Rob Herb David，我接受 [...] 這一點，稱之為缺乏遠見，我可以告訴你，在第一季度，我們有一個相當樂觀的季度，我們預測第二季度和第三季度會比最終結果好得多，所以大部分都是我的錯誤 [...] 對市場將會如何發展的看法。我不會承擔所有的責任，我的意思是我們的客戶當時也告訴了我們一些相同的事情。因此，如果您查看我們的出貨率以及客戶的庫存情況，您知道 PC 的完工情況，我們處理器的庫存在渠道中處於不同水平，供應商的庫存情況，您知道我們顯然處於這樣一種情況：在第四季度和第一季度，出貨量遠遠超過了 PC 在那個時間段內的庫存，不幸的是，我們對第二季度和第三季度的預測高於第三季度，雖然第三季度所以在那個時候，我們做出了決定，你知道，在正常情況下，你會看到隨著業務的回升，你會按季度吸收這些收入，你知道，在幾個季度內以某種運行率吸收這些收入。好吧，我們決定採取果斷行動，隨著這個市場的復甦，我們有機會確保我們的客戶和所有通路合作夥伴都擁有當代市場所需的材料和盡可能珍貴的材料。

So we took a much bigger and more decisive action in Q3 than we had planned even at the beginning of Q3 and I think it was the right thing to do and I think we are going to be very well positioned as we look into what's going to happen in Q4.

因此，我們在第三季採取了比我們在第三季初計劃的更大、更果斷的行動，我認為這是正確的做法，而且我認為我們將在展望第四季時處於非常有利的位置。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Quinn Bolton with CIBC World Markets. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自加拿大帝國商業銀行世界市場的 Quinn Bolton。請繼續您的問題。

A couple of questions. One, there are some recent media reports discussing the potential that you may be negotiating with Fujitsu to restructure the [...] joint venture. I wondered if you could make any comments. And then a quick question for Bob, what kind of tax rate should we be looking at for the fourth quarter, it looks like that's been moving around here in the third quarter?

有幾個問題。第一，最近有一些媒體報導討論了你們可能正在與富士通談判重組合資企業的可能性。我想知道您是否可以發表任何評論。然後我想問鮑伯一個簡單的問題，我們應該關注第四季的什麼樣的稅率，看起來這個稅率在第三季一直在變化？

Let me just make a comment about Fujitsu. We have had a relationship now for many years, I forget how long, 7 years and it has been incredibly positive and healthy for both companies. But as markets change and things evolve there is a need for that relationship to be modified, to be more in line with what needs to happen going forward. We are both, Fujitsu and AMD continue to do that on a regular basis, so there is nothing unique about us exploring that and we believe that the evolution in that relationship is getting healthier and stronger. There is nothing beyond that, that we can say at the moment.

我只想對富士通發表一點評論。我們之間的合作關係已經很多年了，我忘了有多久了，大概 7 年，對於兩家公司來說，這段關係都非常積極和健康。但隨著市場變化和事物發展，這種關係需要進行修改，以更符合未來發展的需要。富士通和 AMD 都定期這樣做，因此我們探索這一點並沒有什麼獨特之處，我們相信這種關係的發展正在變得更加健康和強大。目前我們無法透露更多。

To your question on cash balance, oh I'm sorry tax rate, I'm sorry I missed it. Tax rates for Q4, probably will be around the same as we are today, in that 20% to 25% range for the fourth quarter.

對於您關於現金餘額的問題，哦對不起稅率，很抱歉我錯過了。第四季的稅率可能與現在大致相同，在 20% 至 25% 的範圍內。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from the line of Nathan [Goran] with the E [...] Companies. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自 E [...] 公司的 Nathan [Goran]。請繼續您的問題。

I would like to ask you three following questions. How much of your long-term debt is related to Dresden, what happens if you don't pay the Dresden interest and with your losses at the present time, are you in violation of any loan covenants?

我想問您以下三個問題。您的長期債務有多少與德勒斯登有關，如果您不支付德勒斯登利息會發生什麼，並考慮到您目前的損失，您是否違反了任何貸款契約？

Okay the total Dresden debt is $500mln, that's currently the outstanding balance. There is a portion of it that is in the current [...] window, but $500mln is the total amount owed. Obviously we have not and we don't plan to not pay the interest on that loan, the interest is actually government subsidized with a guarantee, so it's actually not a lot of interest, in fact the interest rate is quite low on that. And there is no violation of loan covenant, sorry I forgot about that one, because we don't have any issues with it.

好的，德勒斯登的債務總額為 5 億美元，這是目前未償還的餘額。其中一部分是在目前 [...] 視窗內，但總欠款金額為 5 億美元。顯然，我們沒有不支付這筆貸款的利息，我們也不打算不支付這筆貸款的利息，這筆利息實際上是政府透過擔保補貼的，所以實際上利息並不多，事實上利率相當低。並且沒有違反貸款契約，抱歉我忘記了這一點，因為我們對此沒有任何問題。

There are no violations of any loan covenants?

不存在違反任何貸款契約的情況嗎？

No.

不。

Are you not near any violations?

您附近沒有任何違規行為嗎？

No.

不。

Thank you very much. Good luck.

非常感謝。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would just like to add to that last question. I think it's important that the loan we have on the Dresden facility. It's a $500mln loan at base with an investment of $2bln so it's really a debt, to us it's quite low in ratio.

我只想補充最後一個問題。我認為我們在德勒斯登工廠的貸款很重要。這是一筆 5 億美元的貸款，投資額為 20 億美元，所以這實際上是一筆債務，對我們來說，這個比例相當低。

The next question comes from the line of Hans [...] with Prudential Securities. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自保誠證券的漢斯[...]。請繼續您的問題。

On Hammer, it seems that your strategy has changed a little bit, in that you are going to address the server market first and foremost. Why is that the case, is there an issue with the performance of the chip or is it a more attractive market? Are you going to focus first on the Opteron family rather than Athlon Hammer core, if you can explain thanks.

關於Hammer，你們的策略似乎有所改變，你們將首先關注伺服器市場。為什麼會出現這種情況，是晶片性能有問題還是市場更具吸引力？您是否會首先關注 Opteron 系列而不是 Athlon Hammer 核心，如果您能解釋一下的話，謝謝。

Yes the first product that will be in the market is actually based on what was originally called the Sledgehammer [...] and we think the biggest opportunity for this product is in the [...] and when the Sledgehammer died [tape cuts off] whichever one is served first. Also with the pretty [...] into our roadmap which starts to ship in the first quarter, we believe that the Athlon XP lineup based on that K7 core called [...] that we are going to be able to have a competitive performance product in the desktop phase and the mobiles phase through [...] with that products, so we will focus on getting the benefits of Hammers and be driven largely by the server space and the workspace [...] and as we go through the year, we will get into the high performance desktop space and this is where we become a player in the volume desktop space until sometime in the second half of next year.

是的，第一款上市的產品實際上是基於最初被稱為 Sledgehammer 的產品 [...] 我們認為這款產品的最大機會在於 [...] 以及當 Sledgehammer 消亡時 [磁帶切斷] 無論哪一個都是先被服務。此外，隨著我們在第一季開始出貨的產品路線圖的逐步完善，我們相信基於 K7 核心的 Athlon XP 系列將能夠在桌面階段和移動階段通過這些產品擁有具有競爭力的高性能產品，因此我們將專注於獲得 Hammers 的優勢，並主要由服務器空間和工作空間驅動，並且高性能我們今年的發展，我們將進入

So is this a change in the strategy over the past quarter or so?

那麼這是過去一個季度左右的策略變化嗎？

It wasn't a change in the strategy in that we are trying to broaden AMD's presence in the marketplace. You know every performance leadership in the consumer desktop states has been something we've been in and out of all the time, we believe we've got a very competitive product [...] going forward. The place that we have not been a big player and we started making progress even with the current Athlon XP product is in the server space and we think it's a chance for us to step up, take a leadership position in enterprise class product offering and to go to market. So yes, it is a change of strategy in that we have put a lot more focus on it based on the prospects we see going forward.

這並不是策略的改變，因為我們正試圖擴大 AMD 在市場上的影響力。您知道，我們一直在消費性桌上型電腦領域保持著效能領先地位，我們相信，我們擁有一款非常有競爭力的產品[...]。在伺服器領域，我們還沒有佔據主導地位，但即使使用目前的 Athlon XP 產品，我們也開始取得進展，我們認為這是我們提升、在企業級產品供應和進入市場方面佔據領導地位的一個機會。所以是的，這是一個策略的改變，我們根據對未來前景的預見，將更多的注意力放在了它上面。

Okay and one follow-on to the last question. Will you have design [...] or announcements at the end of this year or early next year before this product is launched in March or April?

好的，我們繼續回答最後一個問題。在該產品於三月或四月上市之前，您是否會在今年年底或明年年初進行設計或發佈公告？

Well in an ideal market, our attempt would be to start shipping the product and then line up with some launch partners relative to the availability in the marketplace, so sitting here [...] but yes that is the significant time.

在理想的市場中，我們的嘗試是開始運送產品，然後根據市場上的供應情況與一些發布合作夥伴進行協調，所以坐在這裡[...]但那確實是重要的時刻。

The next question comes from line of Eric Ross with Investec. Please proceed with your question.

下一個問題來自 Investec 的 Eric Ross。請繼續您的問題。

Yes I was wondering what the value of the fourth quarter special charge is going to be for my model?

是的，我想知道第四季特別收費對我的模型來說價值是多少？

I'm not ready to talk about that at this point.

我現在還沒準備好談論這個。

Okay, but I should just assume then break-even EBITDA otherwise for the fourth quarter?

好的，但我應該假設第四季的 EBITDA 達到收支平衡嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

And then just quickly, traditionally you haven't been in the cellphone market very strongly over the last year in the Flash market. I was wondering maybe where Flash, what sort of percentage of your share in Flash cellphone handsets for the last quarter and this quarter has been going and what densities are really shipping in to there?

然後簡單說一下，過去一年來，你們在 Flash 市場中並沒有在手機市場表現得非常強勁。我想知道 Flash 在哪裡，上個季度和本季 Flash 手機的市佔率是多少，以及實際出貨密度是多少？

Yes it's a whole high density product, 54Meg kind of products and above. And our share, I won't give you our relative share in our own business, although it's a significant portion of our total shipment, not more than 50% however, and I will tell you that our share from an absolute market standpoint, we exited last year at less than 10%, right around 10% of the overall cellular market. I believe we will exit this year at something around 20% share of the overall cellular market, so clearly a substantial growth from last year.

是的，它是一款高密度產品，54Meg 及以上的產品。至於我們的份額，我不會告訴你我們在自己業務中的相對份額，儘管它占我們總出貨量的很大一部分，但不超過 50%，而且我會告訴你，從絕對市場角度來看，我們去年的份額不到 10%，大約佔整個蜂窩市場的 10%。我相信我們今年將佔據整個蜂窩市場的 20% 左右的份額，這顯然比去年有了大幅增長。

Great and set top boxes and automotives are still the other two largest shares in your Flash business?

很好，機上盒和汽車仍然是您的 Flash 業務中的另外兩個最大份額嗎？

Yes, and if you look at our Flash business, it's really four segments, cellular, which we've made great progress in and is now the largest share of our total business. The automotive market, which is probably the most stable of the business, it was down a little bit last quarter, but overall it was relatively stable. The set-top box, the consumer market which we see as relatively flat at this point in time, we are doing okay in it. And last, this was our largest segment in terms of last year and has quickly become a much smaller portion of overall business is network infrastructure business, which continues to be extremely sluggish and that's probably the worst of the four segments we are engaged in.

是的，如果你看一下我們的 Flash 業務，它實際上分為四個部分，蜂窩業務是我們取得了巨大進步，現在占我們總業務的最大份額。汽車市場可能是最穩定的業務，上個季度略有下滑，但整體而言相對穩定。機上盒，即目前我們認為相對平穩的消費市場，我們在其中做得還不錯。最後，這是我們去年最大的業務部門，但網路基礎設施業務在整體業務中所佔的比重已迅速縮小，該業務持續低迷，可能是我們從事的四個業務部門中最糟糕的。

Okay and then I guess the last question is maybe you can talk a little bit about the clock speed and performance dealings of Athlon over the next couple of years and what you are planning to do to extend this in the next couple of years?

好的，我想最後一個問題是，您能否談談未來幾年 Athlon 的時脈速度和效能情況，以及您計劃在未來幾年內採取哪些措施來延長這一時間？

Let's see, I don't want to talk about the next couple of years, I'll take advantage on November 7th, actually Dirk Meyer is probably going to present the programme at that point in time. But I will tell you again, I will reiterate this quarter we are going to have in excess of $200mln of the 24,000 [...] products and quite frankly we avoid talking about frequency because it just doesn't matter, what really matters is performance but just to give you a sense, those products were also all over 2GHz, so the truth of the matter is we think our line-up is now back to being an extremely competitive across the [...] range and the introduction of [...] in the first quarter and subsequent increases in performance throughout the next year, we think the Athlon XP based product line largely on K7 cores will be very competitive in that timeframe.

讓我們看看，我不想談論接下來的幾年，我會利用 11 月 7 日的時間，實際上 Dirk Meyer 可能會在那個時候介紹這個計劃。但我要再次告訴您，我要重申，本季度我們將有超過 2 億美元的 24,000 種產品 [...] 坦率地說，我們避免談論頻率，因為這並不重要，真正重要的是性能，但只是為了讓您了解，那些產品的頻率也全部超過 2GHz，所以事實是，我們認為我們的產品線現在在整個 [...] 範圍內並在明年隨後提高了性能，我們認為主要基於 K7 核心的 Athlon XP 產品線將在那段時間內非常具有競爭力。

But you won't switch to another processor architecture in the next two years in order to maintain your competitive performance?

但是為了保持競爭力，你們不會在未來兩年內轉向另一種處理器架構嗎？

Well in the next two years the answer is yes, we expect to have camera based Athlon products begin to come in the market next year even in desktop state and become a significant portion of our product offerings really in 2004.

那麼在未來兩年內答案是肯定的，我們預計基於攝影機的 Athlon 產品明年將開始進入市場，即使是桌面版，並在 2004 年真正成為我們產品的重要組成部分。

Okay and last quick question. Do you have any exposure to [Intergraph] pattern that you know of?

好的，最後一個快速問題。您是否接觸過您所知道的 [Intergraph] 模式？

Not that we know of.

據我們所知沒有。

Thanks guys.

謝謝大家。

Operator, one more question please.

接線員，請再問一個問題。

Thank you sir. The last question comes from Jonathan Joseph with Salomon Smith Barney. Please proceed with your question.

謝謝您，先生。最後一個問題來自所羅門史密斯巴尼公司的喬納森約瑟夫。請繼續您的問題。

I'd like to clarify something, you suggested CPU is up 8% to 12% in the fourth quarter. Is that in general for the industry and on average or is that the rates that your own CPUs are going to rise?

我想澄清一下，您說第四季 CPU 上漲了 8% 到 12%。這是整個行業的普遍情況還是平均水平，還是你們自己的 CPU 的成長速度？

It's a general statement on how I think the industry is going to see it.

這是我對於業界將如何看待這個問題的一個概括性陳述。

Now Hector had said that Flash was going to grow at about double the rate in fourth quarter from third, so that's about 8% become 16%. If you sort of plug in the numbers, it looks like processor is going to have grow on a dollar basis about 30%, was there anything in the accounting process from Q3 to Q4 that through a swap or through you know, some replacement, higher ESPs for lower ESPs that revenues, microprocessor revenues were a little understated in Q3 and could be a little overstated in Q4, because of this inventory clearing issue?

現在赫克托表示，Flash 在第四季的成長率將是第三季的兩倍左右，也就是說將從 8% 成長至 16%。如果您輸入這些數字，看起來處理器的收入將以美元計算增長約 30%，那麼在第三季度到第四季度的會計過程中是否存在通過掉期或通過替換，以較高的 ESP 取代較低的 ESP，導致收入、微處理器收入在第三季度被低估，而在第四季度可能被高估，這是由於庫存清理問題造成的嗎？

First of all, I think Hector said he expected Flash to grow [...] that much, I won't get into the details of specific numbers on that. I will say on the microprocessor side, our ESPs as well as our unit shipments both were absolutely impacted in Q3, so it is a negative overstatement of what happened. In Q4 there is no positive impact coming back, we just get back into shipping contemporary products in the marketplace, so I do expect Q4 will be quite a bit better coming off of what is an overly depressed rate from Q3 as a result of the actions we took.

首先，我認為赫克託說他預計 Flash 會成長那麼多，我不會詳細討論具體數字。我想說的是，在微處理器方面，我們的 ESP 以及我們的單位出貨量在第三季都受到了絕對影響，因此，這是對所發生情況的負面誇大。第四季沒有任何正面影響，我們只是重新開始在市場上運送當代產品，因此我確實預計，由於我們採取的行動，第四季度的業績將比第三季度的業績低迷得多。

Okay and the products you are shipping in Q4 is there any zero [...] basis product?

好的，您在第四季度運送的產品中有零基礎產品嗎？

I don't think so. No.

我不這麼認為。不。

And then just finally, Rob do you think that your ESPs can grow on a normalized basis, I understand that they were depressed in Q3, but when you sort of normalize it, are your ESPs likely to growth a little bit in Q4 as well as Q1?

最後，Rob，您認為您的 ESP 可以在正常化的基礎上成長嗎？我知道它們在第三季度受到抑制，但是當您將其正常化時，您的 ESP 是否會在第四季度和第一季都有所增長？

Certainly, again I don't want to comment too much on 2003 yet, but if we look at our business and if we have modeled it based on what we think our current plans for shipment this quarter are, if you looked at the [...] growth [...] from Q2 to Q3 it was actually up for us and I think that Q3 to Q4 we have that same opportunity. So it's a combination of the more competitive product line to my mind, again more of our overall shipments being in the mobile and server states than they have been in the past. Again the fact that we are not going to have the factor of the inventory [...] ESP in Q4.

當然，我現在還不想對 2003 年發表太多評論，但如果我們看看我們的業務，如果我們根據我們認為的本季度當前的出貨計劃對其進行建模，如果你看一下 [...] 從第二季度到第三季度的增長 [...] 對我們來說實際上是上升的，我認為第三季度到第四季度我們也有同樣的機會。因此，在我看來，這是更具競爭力的產品線的組合，而且我們的整體出貨量在行動和伺服器領域的比過去更多。再一次，事實是，我們不會在第四季度考慮庫存因素[...] ESP。

Okay and just before you run because this is the last question. Servers as a percentile and mobiles as a percentile what would you estimate in Q3 and Q4?

好的，在你跑之前，因為這是最後一個問題。如果將伺服器作為百分位數，將行動裝置作為百分位數，您估計第三季和第四季的百分位數是多少？

I won't give you all the numbers, I will just say it's continued to grow, if you look at the mobile market, again if you look at the Data Quest numbers, we have doubled our shares from Q1 to Q2 from 6% to 12%, we believe that with our unit shipment being basically flat we are pretty confident [...] grow a little bit this year. On the server side our shipments from Q2 to Q3 were up 17%, so a pretty strong exposure although the server total [...] units is a relatively small portion to the overall number.

我不會告訴你所有的數字，我只想說它一直在增長，如果你看看移動市場，再看看 Data Quest 的數字，我們的份額從第一季度到第二季度翻了一番，從 6% 增加到 12%，我們相信，由於我們的單位出貨量基本持平，我們相當有信心 [...] 今年會略有增長。在伺服器方面，我們的出貨量從第二季到第三季成長了 17%，因此儘管伺服器總台數佔總數的比例相對較小，但曝光度相當高。

Sort of a low single digit?

有點低個位數？

Yes, from a unit standpoint yes.

是的，從單位角度來說，是的。

Okay thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen that does end the q and a session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. [Hosi].

女士們、先生們，問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話轉回給 [Hosi] 先生。

Okay that concludes the call. Thank you very much for attending.

好的，通話結束。非常感謝您的出席。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。