Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allison Transmission's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Camilla and I will be your conference call operator today.

下午好。謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Allison Transmission 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫卡米拉，今天我將擔任你們的電話會議接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jackie Bolles, Executive Director of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Jackie.

提醒一下，正在錄製此電話會議。我現在想把電話轉給財政部和投資者關係執行董事 Jackie Bolles。請繼續，傑基。

Thank you, Camilla. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With me this afternoon are Dave Graziosi, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Fred Bohley, our Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

謝謝你，卡米拉。下午好，感謝您加入我們的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天下午和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Dave Graziosi；以及我們的高級副總裁、首席財務官兼財務主管 Fred Bohley。

As a reminder, this conference call webcast and this afternoon's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of allisontransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available through May 11.

提醒一下，本次電話會議網絡直播和今天下午的演示文稿可在 allisontransmission.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。此通話的重播將在 5 月 11 日之前提供。

As noted on Slide 2 of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks including those set forth in our first quarter 2023 earnings press release and our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 as well as other general economic factors. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today.

正如演示文稿的幻燈片 2 中所述，我們今天的許多評論都包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受已知和未知風險的影響，包括我們 2023 年第一季度收益新聞稿和我們截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告中規定的風險以及其他一般經濟因素。如果這些風險或不確定性中的一項或多項成為現實，或者如果基本假設或估計被證明不正確，實際結果可能與我們今天表達的結果大不相同。

In addition, as noted on Slide 3 of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures attached as an appendix in the presentation and to our first quarter 2023 earnings press release.

此外，如演示文稿的幻燈片 3 所述，我們今天的一些評論包含美國證券交易委員會定義的非 GAAP 財務措施。您可以在演示文稿和我們的 2023 年第一季度收益新聞稿中找到非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對賬。

Today's call is set to end at 5:45 p.m. Eastern Time. In order to maximize participation opportunities on the call, we'll take just 1 question from each analyst. Please turn to Slide 4 of the presentation for the call agenda.

今天的電話會議定於下午 5:45 結束。東部時間。為了最大限度地增加電話會議的參與機會，我們將只向每位分析師提出 1 個問題。請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 4 了解電話會議議程。

During today's call, Dave Graziosi will review highlights from our first quarter 2023 results and provide an operational update. Fred Bohley will then review our first quarter financial performance and update to our full year 2023 guidance prior to commencing the Q&A.

在今天的電話會議上，Dave Graziosi 將回顧我們 2023 年第一季度業績的亮點，並提供運營更新。然後，Fred Bohley 將審查我們第一季度的財務業績，並在開始問答之前更新我們的 2023 年全年指南。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dave.

現在我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Jackie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. After a record year for Allison in 2022, our first quarter results show a strong start for 2023 and an exciting year to come for the business. During the first quarter, we achieved record revenue of $741 million, an increase of 9% from 2022. Not unlike previous quarters, sales growth has -- was outperformed by EBITDA margin growth and EPS growth, demonstrating Allison's commitment to operating performance. In the first quarter, we grew EPS to $1.85, up 42% year-over-year.

謝謝你，傑基。下午好，感謝您加入我們。在 2022 年艾里遜創下了創紀錄的一年之後，我們的第一季度業績顯示 2023 年開局良好，業務將迎來激動人心的一年。第一季度，我們實現了創紀錄的 7.41 億美元收入，比 2022 年增長了 9%。與前幾個季度不同的是，銷售增長的表現優於 EBITDA 利潤率增長和每股收益增長，這表明艾里遜對經營業績的承諾。第一季度，我們的每股收益增長至 1.85 美元，同比增長 42%。

Our quarterly results demonstrate, not only the strength of our core end markets, particularly in North America, but also the value proposition of the Allison's fully automatic transmission, which enables customers to get more work done with our quality, durability and reliability promise.

我們的季度業績不僅展示了我們核心終端市場的實力，尤其是在北美，還展示了艾里遜全自動變速器的價值主張，它使客戶能夠以我們的質量、耐用性和可靠性承諾完成更多工作。

As cost inflation continues throughout the industry, vehicle prices inflate and Allison's value proposition increases, providing an opportunity to further increase market share as well as realized price. For the first quarter, we achieved gross margin expansion of 145 basis points compared to the same period in 2022. Our operating performance has enabled us to maintain our capital allocation priorities by investing in Allison's conventional and next-generation propulsion products.

隨著整個行業成本持續上漲，車輛價格上漲，艾里遜的價值主張增加，為進一步增加市場份額和實現價格提供了機會。第一季度，與 2022 年同期相比，我們實現了 145 個基點的毛利率增長。我們的經營業績使我們能夠通過投資艾里遜的傳統和下一代推進產品來維持我們的資本配置重點。

We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and share repurchase program. During the first quarter, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.23 per share, marking the fourth consecutive year of dividend increases. Also during the quarter, we repurchased 1% of our shares outstanding with 60% of our shares outstanding repurchased since Allison's IPO in 2012.

我們還致力於通過季度股息和股票回購計劃向股東返還資本。第一季度，我們將季度股息提高了 10% 至每股 0.23 美元，這是連續第四年增加股息。同樣在本季度，我們回購了 1% 的已發行股票，其中 60% 的已發行股票自 Allison 於 2012 年首次公開募股以來已回購。

We ended the first quarter with approximately $1 billion of authorized share repurchase capacity. During the quarter, Allison attended the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference where we highlighted progress of our China Wide-body Mining Dump Growth initiative. We have resized the annual revenue opportunity from $50 million to $100 million as our Allison automatic 4000 Series has gained quick adoption in the Chinese market as well as export markets. As we discussed on the last earnings conference call, we are pleased with the early success of the initiative, gaining over 10% share in 18 months.

我們在第一季度結束時擁有大約 10 億美元的授權股票回購能力。在本季度，Allison 參加了 Raymond James 機構投資者大會，會上我們重點介紹了我們在中國寬體礦山垃圾場增長計劃的進展。我們已將年收入機會從 5000 萬美元調整為 1 億美元，因為我們的 Allison automatic 4000 系列已在中國市場和出口市場得到快速採用。正如我們在上次收益電話會議上討論的那樣，我們對該計劃的早期成功感到高興，在 18 個月內獲得了超過 10% 的份額。

In early April, we announced another growth initiative for the wide-body mining dump export market through our partnership with SANY, a global heavy equipment manufacturer for the mining and construction markets.

4 月初，我們通過與面向採礦和建築市場的全球重型設備製造商三一重工的合作，宣布了另一項針對寬體礦山垃圾出口市場的增長計劃。

Our letter of intent to supply Allison's 4000 Series 7-speed transmission for SANY's 96x wide-body mining dump truck for the Indian market demonstrates our commitment to expanding our global penetration in this location. This partnership will draw on our joint success in the Chinese wide-body mining dump market to create an ecosystem of innovation and growth in the fast developing Indian market.

我們為印度市場的三一重工 96x 寬體礦用自卸車供應艾里遜 4000 系列 7 速變速器的意向書表明我們致力於擴大我們在該地區的全球滲透率。此次合作將利用我們在中國寬體礦山垃圾場的共同成功，在快速發展的印度市場創造一個創新和增長的生態系統。

On our last earnings call, we reiterated the announcement of Allison's award-winning 3414 Regional Haul Series transmission by being available in DTNA's Class 8 Freightliner Cascadia Day Cab model paired with Cummins natural gas engine. Today, we would also like to announce that the 3414 paired with the Detroit DD13 diesel engine is now available for order in DTNA's M2 truck. The 3414 is the lightest transmission in the segment at up to 11% lighter than the closest competitor and provides numerous benefits, including improved fuel economy by up to 8% regardless of fuel type. The announcement represents the fuel-agnostic nature of Allison's products and the commitment to evolving our propulsion solutions to help OEMs and fleet customers meet sustainability goals.

在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們重申了艾里遜屢獲殊榮的 3414 Regional Haul 系列變速箱的公告，該變速箱將用於 DTNA 的 8 級 Freightliner Cascadia Day Cab 車型，搭配康明斯天然氣發動機。今天，我們還想宣布與底特律 DD13 柴油發動機配對的 3414 現已可以在 DTNA 的 M2 卡車上訂購。 3414 是該細分市場中最輕的變速箱，比最接近的競爭對手輕 11%，並具有眾多優勢，包括將燃油經濟性提高多達 8%（無論燃料類型如何）。該公告代表了艾里遜產品與燃料無關的特性，以及對改進我們的推進解決方案以幫助原始設備製造商和車隊客戶實現可持續發展目標的承諾。

We have made numerous announcements for our defense end market in the last few quarters, and today, we would like to take some time to outline our strategy and opportunities in this unique market. Historically, Allison's defense end market sales were primarily attributable to United States Department of Defense, and we continue to provide the transmissions for all tactical-wheeled vehicles heavier than the Humvee and more than half of the armored combat vehicles used by the U.S. military.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們針對我們的防禦終端市場發布了大量公告，今天，我們想花一些時間來概述我們在這個獨特市場中的戰略和機會。從歷史上看，艾里遜的國防終端市場銷售主要歸功於美國國防部，我們繼續為所有比悍馬更重的戰術輪式車輛和美國軍方使用的一半以上的裝甲戰車提供變速箱。

In February, the contract award for the JLTV A2 was announced by the U.S. Army. Allison has been the propulsion supplier of the JLTV A1 since 2015, and we are proud that our 2500 Specialty Series will remain the propulsion solution of choice for this program with the JLTV A2. The first delivery is expected in Q3 of 2024 with the U.S. Department -- Defense Department forecasting 55,000 JLTV A1 and JLTV A2 vehicles over the next 2 decades.

2 月，美國陸軍宣布授予 JLTV A2 合同。自 2015 年以來，艾里遜一直是 JLTV A1 的推進供應商，我們感到自豪的是，我們的 2500 特種系列將繼續作為 JLTV A2 項目的首選推進解決方案。首批交付預計在 2024 年第三季度，美國國防部預測未來 20 年將交付 55,000 輛 JLTV A1 和 JLTV A2 車輛。

Today, global defense spending is on the rise, driven by the Ukraine war, shifts in geopolitical dynamics and the U.S. Department of Defense modernization priorities. Allison is poised to capture growth in this cycle by continuing our long-standing partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense, while diversifying our revenue sources by increasing our international sales. In the next few years, we expect this growth to drive $100 million of incremental annual revenue in our defense end market.

今天，在烏克蘭戰爭、地緣政治動態變化和美國國防部現代化優先事項的推動下，全球國防開支正在上升。 Allison 準備通過繼續與美國國防部的長期合作夥伴關係來抓住這一周期的增長，同時通過增加我們的國際銷售使我們的收入來源多樣化。在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計這種增長將推動我們的防禦端市場每年增加 1 億美元的收入。

Starting in the U.S., we have already announced several programs such as the Army's Mobile Protected Firepower or MPF, the M88 A3 recovery vehicle and the continuation of the Abrams contract. These programs mentioned our all tracked vehicle programs where we expect to see the most growth. In addition to these track programs, there are numerous wheeled-vehicle programs with the U.S. Department of Defense, which will continue to drive growth in the coming years. All of these programs are expected to last decades and continue Allison's long-standing partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense. We also expect a significant portion of growth in the defense end market to come from international opportunities.

從美國開始，我們已經宣布了幾個項目，例如陸軍的移動保護火力或 MPF、M88 A3 救援車和艾布拉姆斯合同的延續。這些計劃提到了我們預計增長最快的所有履帶式車輛計劃。除了這些軌道項目外，還有許多與美國國防部合作的輪式車輛項目，這些項目將在未來幾年繼續推動增長。所有這些項目預計將持續數十年，並延續 Allison 與美國國防部的長期合作關係。我們還預計國防市場的很大一部分增長將來自國際機會。

In 2022, international sales accounted for 29% of the revenue in our defense end market. In coming years, we expect the international revenue will grow to more than 50% as a result of these strategies. First, the expansion of sales of existing products, such as our X1100 and the Abrams main battle tank. Over the next 3 years, the U.S. government plans to sell more than 430 Abrams tanks to Taiwan, Australia and Poland.

2022 年，國際銷售額占我們國防終端市場收入的 29%。在未來幾年，由於這些戰略，我們預計國際收入將增長到 50% 以上。首先，擴大現有產品的銷售，例如我們的 X1100 和艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克。未來3年，美國政府計劃向台灣、澳大利亞和波蘭出售430多輛艾布拉姆斯坦克。

Second, our sales to the international defense market through partnerships with global defense OEMs such as South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace. Hanwha is a global leader in armored combat vehicles and increased sales of its K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer to both Egypt and Poland has led to Hanwha becoming one of Allison's largest defense OEM. And finally, our development of new products such as the 3040 MX medium way cross-drive transmission and product variants such as the Abrams X1100 variant developed for the Turkish Firtina self-propelled howitzer program which are gaining interest around the world.

其次，我們通過與韓國韓華宇航等全球國防原始設備製造商的合作夥伴關係向國際國防市場銷售。韓華是裝甲戰車領域的全球領導者，其 K9 Thunder 自行榴彈砲在埃及和波蘭的銷量增加，使韓華成為艾里遜最大的國防 OEM 之一。最後，我們開發的新產品（例如 3040 MX 中程交叉驅動變速器）和產品變體（例如為土耳其 Firtina 自行榴彈砲計劃開發的 Abrams X1100 變體）在世界範圍內引起了人們的興趣。

The 3040 MX has already been selected for the U.S. Army's MPF program and has since gained traction in new programs in countries such as Poland, Turkey and India.

3040 MX 已被美國陸軍的 MPF 計劃選中，此後在波蘭、土耳其和印度等國家的新計劃中獲得了關注。

Last quarter, we mentioned India's future inventory combat vehicle or FICV and the opportunity for approximately 750 units over the next 2 decades, utilizing the Allison 3040 MX. With our new eGen Force electric hybrid propulsion system for tracked combat vehicles, we are looking forward to even longer-term growth opportunities in our defense end market. The Allison eGen Force has already been selected by American Rheinmetall for the optionally manned fighting vehicle or OMFV, with the U.S. Army planning to downselect this summer, followed by testing in 2026, an estimated start of production in 2029.

上個季度，我們提到了印度未來的庫存戰車或 FICV，以及在未來 20 年內使用 Allison 3040 MX 生產大約 750 輛的機會。憑藉我們用於履帶式戰車的新型 eGen Force 電動混合動力推進系統，我們期待在國防終端市場獲得更長期的增長機會。 Allison eGen Force 已經被美國萊茵金屬公司選中用於可選的有人駕駛戰車或 OMFV，美國陸軍計劃在今年夏天取消選擇，隨後在 2026 年進行測試，預計 2029 年開始生產。

The defense end market is unique in that armored vehicle programs typically take between 7 and 10 years from idea to production. This requires the industry to self-invest prior to final vehicle selection and production, often with uncertain time lines with the opportunity being decades long production and aftermarket for most programs. Allison is committed to investing in and pursuing growth in our defense end market in order to capture the opportunities from an expected multiyear increase in global defense spending, and we look forward to providing updates on specific milestones.

防禦終端市場的獨特之處在於，裝甲車項目從構思到生產通常需要 7 到 10 年的時間。這需要行業在最終車輛選擇和生產之前進行自我投資，通常時間線不確定，大多數項目可能需要長達數十年的生產和售後市場。 Allison 致力於投資和追求我們的國防終端市場的增長，以抓住全球國防開支預期多年增長的機會，我們期待提供具體里程碑的更新。

In summary, Allison's first quarter results demonstrate not only the current success of our business, but the notable growth opportunities to come. We continue to invest in our business in order to achieve our growth ambitions, while returning capital to shareholders and delivering on our brand promise to improve the way the world works.

總而言之，艾里遜第一季度的業績不僅展示了我們業務當前的成功，還展示了未來顯著的增長機會。我們繼續投資於我們的業務以實現我們的增長目標，同時向股東返還資本並兌現我們改善世界運作方式的品牌承諾。

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Fred.

謝謝，我現在將電話轉給弗雷德。

Thank you, Dave. Following Dave's first quarter 2023 results comments, I'll discuss the Q1 2023 performance summary, key income statement line items and cash flow. I'll then provide updates to the full year 2023 guidance.

謝謝你，戴夫。在 Dave 發表 2023 年第一季度業績評論後，我將討論 2023 年第一季度業績摘要、主要損益表項目和現金流。然後，我將提供 2023 年全年指南的更新。

Please turn to Slide 5 of the presentation for the Q1 2023 performance summary. First quarter net sales increased 9% from the same period in 2022 to a record of $741 million. The increase in year-over-year results was led by a $44 million increase in the Service Parts, Support Equipment and other end markets, leading to record quarterly sales of $183 million. The increase was driven by higher demand for Global Service Parts and Support Equipment, higher demand for aluminum die cast components and price increases on certain products.

請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 5，了解 2023 年第一季度的業績摘要。第一季度淨銷售額比 2022 年同期增長 9%，達到創紀錄的 7.41 億美元。服務零件、支持設備和其他終端市場增長了 4400 萬美元，帶動業績同比增長，季度銷售額達到創紀錄的 1.83 億美元。增長的原因是對全球服務零件和支持設備的需求增加，對鋁壓鑄部件的需求增加以及某些產品的價格上漲。

Year-over-year results were also improved by a $30 million increase in net sales in the North American On-Highway end market, principally driven by strength in customer demand for medium duty and Class 8 vocational trucks and price increases on certain products. Gross profit for the quarter was $361 million, a 13% increase from $320 million from the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by price increases on certain products, partially offset by higher manufacturing expense and direct material costs.

北美公路終端市場的淨銷售額增長了 3000 萬美元，同比業績也有所改善，這主要是由於客戶對中型和 8 級職業卡車的強勁需求以及某些產品的價格上漲。本季度毛利潤為 3.61 億美元，比 2022 年同期的 3.2 億美元增長 13%。增長的主要原因是某些產品的價格上漲，部分被製造費用和直接材料成本增加所抵消。

Net income for the quarter was $170 million compared to $129 million from the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $276 million compared to $244 million for the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit, partially offset by increased selling, general and administrative expenses.

本季度淨收入為 1.7 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 1.29 億美元。增長的主要原因是毛利潤增加。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.76 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 2.44 億美元。增長的主要原因是毛利潤增加，部分被銷售、一般和管理費用的增加所抵消。

Diluted earnings per share increased 42% from the same period in 2022. First quarter EPS of $1.85 was driven by higher net income and lower total shares outstanding. A detailed overview of our net sales by end market can be found on Slide 6 of the presentation.

每股攤薄收益比 2022 年同期增長 42%。第一季度每股收益為 1.85 美元，這是受淨收入增加和已發行股票總數減少的推動。有關我們按終端市場劃分的淨銷售額的詳細概述，請參見演示文稿的幻燈片 6。

Please turn to Slide 7 of the presentation for the Q1 2023 financial performance summary. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $12 million from the same period in 2022, principally driven by higher commercial activity spending and increased product warranty expense. Engineering research and development expenses for the quarter were essentially flat with the same period in 2022.

請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 7，了解 2023 年第一季度的財務業績摘要。銷售、一般和管理費用比 2022 年同期增加 1200 萬美元，這主要是由於商業活動支出增加和產品保修費用增加所致。本季度工程研發費用與2022年同期基本持平。

Please turn to Slide 8 of the presentation for the Q1 2023 cash flow performance summary. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $169 million compared to $142 million from the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by higher net cash provided by operating activities, partially offset by increased capital expenditures.

請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 8，了解 2023 年第一季度現金流量績效摘要。本季度調整後的自由現金流為 1.69 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 1.42 億美元。增長的主要原因是經營活動提供的淨現金增加，部分被資本支出增加所抵消。

During the quarter, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.23 per share. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase to our dividend. We further returned capital to shareholders by repurchasing $40 million of our common stock. For the quarter, this represents 1% of our outstanding shares with 60% of our outstanding shares repurchased since Allison's IPO in 2012.

本季度，我們將季度股息提高 10% 至每股 0.23 美元。這標誌著我們的股息連續第四年增加。我們通過回購 4000 萬美元的普通股進一步向股東返還資本。對於本季度，這占我們流通股的 1%，自 2012 年 Allison 首次公開募股以來回購了我們流通股的 60%。

We ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 2.2x, $344 million of cash and $644 million of available revolving credit facility commitments. In addition, we continue to maintain a flexible, long-dated and covenant-light debt structure with the earliest maturity due in 2026. Of our $2.5 billion of outstanding debt, $623 million is subject to variable interest rates, of which $550 million is hedged, resulting in 95% of our debt being fixed through the third quarter of 2025.

我們以 2.2 倍的淨槓桿率、3.44 億美元的現金和 6.44 億美元的可用循環信貸額度承諾結束了本季度。此外，我們繼續保持靈活、長期和輕契約的債務結構，最早將於 2026 年到期。在我們 25 億美元的未償債務中，6.23 億美元採用可變利率，其中 5.5 億美元進行了對沖，導致我們 95% 的債務在 2025 年第三季度之前得到解決。

Please turn to Slide 9 of the presentation for the update to our 2023 guidance. Given first quarter 2023 results and current end market conditions, we are raising our full year 2023 guidance. Allison expects net sales to be in the range of $2.9 billion to $3 billion. At the midpoint, this represents over 6% year-over-year growth based on continued strength in demand in our end markets, price increases on certain products and the continued execution of growth initiatives, leading to another anticipated record net sales year.

請轉到演示文稿的幻燈片 9，了解我們 2023 年指南的更新。鑑於 2023 年第一季度的業績和當前的終端市場狀況，我們正在上調 2023 年全年的指引。 Allison 預計淨銷售額將在 29 億美元至 30 億美元之間。基於我們終端市場需求的持續強勁、某些產品的價格上漲以及增長計劃的持續執行，這代表了超過 6% 的同比增長，從而導致另一個預期創紀錄的淨銷售額年度。

In addition to Allison's 2023 net sales guidance, we anticipate net income in the range of $550 million to $600 million, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.01 billion to $1.09 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $635 million to $695 million, capital expenditures in the range of $125 million to $135 million and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $510 million to $560 million.

除了 Allison 的 2023 年淨銷售額指引外，我們預計淨收入在 5.5 億美元至 6 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 在 10.1 億美元至 10.9 億美元之間。經營活動提供的現金淨額在 6.35 億美元至 6.95 億美元之間，資本支出在 1.25 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間，調整後的自由現金流在 5.1 億美元至 5.6 億美元之間。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Camilla, please open the call for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。卡米拉，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Tim Thein with Citi.

我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

The question is on the Service Parts and Support Equipment that over the years, that part of the business has gone through some periods where you get kind of outsized growth. And I'm just curious, as we look at this quarter and maybe what you can foresee or envision for the balance of the year, is that attributed to that part of the business where you can get some -- a little bit more pricing leverage? So I'm curious, did that maybe play a bigger role in the first quarter?

問題在於服務零件和支持設備，多年來，這部分業務經歷了一些時期，您獲得了某種超額增長。我很好奇，當我們看這個季度時，也許你可以預見或設想今年餘下的時間，這歸因於你可以獲得一些的那部分業務 - 多一點定價槓桿？所以我很好奇，這是否可能在第一季度發揮更大的作用？

Or -- and I guess the second part of the question is, would you expect this part of the business to -- at least the On-highway business to flow just kind of directionally with new deliveries? Or is there something else driving the business? I'm just trying to open -- the spirit of the question is, is this kind of a onetime deal? Or do you see further momentum in that particular part of the business?

或者——我想問題的第二部分是，你會期望這部分業務——至少公路業務會隨著新交付的方向而流動嗎？還是有其他因素推動業務發展？我只是想打開——問題的實質是，這是一種一次性交易嗎？或者您是否看到該業務的特定部分有進一步的發展勢頭？

Tim, it's Dave. Thank you for the question. So a few items, I think you referenced to years ago in terms of a bit of an ebb and flow and some increases. I'm assuming you're referring to some of the Off-Highway that activity that we saw probably 5, 6 years ago. And really, that was a result of fleet size increases years before that. And then, of course, coming in for rebuilds and that market has really run its course in terms of those particular units being replaced with new units and such as you're familiar with the Q1 results, a number of things driving that.

蒂姆，是戴夫。感謝你的提問。所以有幾個項目，我想你在幾年前提到了一些潮起潮落和一些增加。我假設您指的是我們可能在 5、6 年前看到的一些非公路活動。實際上，這是幾年前機隊規模增加的結果。然後，當然，進行重建，並且該市場在那些特定單元被新單元替換方面真正運行了它的過程，例如你熟悉第一季度的結果，有很多因素推動了這一點。

As you're well aware, the overall industry has been constrained by a number of inputs, mostly labor and to a degree, parts. We certainly saw some improvement going into the second half of last year and even into the fourth quarter. I think actually, if you look at our fourth quarter results, we are starting to reflect some of that. The improvements in those input constraints really started to take, I would say, more meaningful hold as we enter 2023. The channel is able to catch up with some of the work that they've really stacked up, at the same time, we've seen some improvement in terms of supplier delivery with what's needed ultimately by the channel.

如您所知，整個行業一直受到許多投入的限制，主要是勞動力，在一定程度上是零部件。我們當然看到去年下半年甚至第四季度有所改善。我認為實際上，如果你看一下我們第四季度的業績，我們就會開始反映出其中的一些。當我們進入 2023 年時，這些輸入限制的改進真的開始變得更有意義了。該渠道能夠趕上他們真正積累的一些工作，與此同時，我們'我們已經看到供應商交付方面的一些改進，滿足了渠道最終的需求。

So the Q1 results reflect a number of those attributes as well as when you think about -- to your question, is a one and done, I believe, as we think about the balance of the year, we expect some continuation of that level of improvement. Some of it is burning through for the industry backlog that you see some impact in the first quarter, and we would expect some of that in the second quarter. But ultimately, to get back to more normalized levels, as you also know, with the fleet aging, the way it is, aftermarket will continue to be what we believe is a pretty strong market for us.

因此，第一季度的結果反映了一些這些屬性，以及當你考慮 - 對於你的問題，我相信，當我們考慮今年的餘額時，我們預計會繼續保持這種水平改進。其中一些正在為您在第一季度看到一些影響的行業積壓而燃燒，我們預計第二季度會有一些影響。但最終，要恢復到更正常的水平，正如你所知，隨著車隊老化，售後市場將繼續成為我們認為對我們來說非常強大的市場。

It's also a market that's seen range of price increases over the last 18 to 24 months as well, which is playing a role there. I think beyond -- those are really -- that majority of my comments are really directed to the On-Highway business. And I would just offer as well, again, as you think about the aftermarket, you also mentioned this point about being tied to units, which is really tied to what we refer to as Support Equipment, which is tied to new unit sales. So to the extent that volumes are up, which our guide implies they are, that will certainly pull through some increased Support Equipment sales as well.

這也是一個在過去 18 到 24 個月內價格上漲範圍的市場，這在其中發揮了作用。我認為除此之外——這些確實是——我的大部分評論實際上都是針對公路業務的。我也想再次提供，當你考慮售後市場時，你也提到了與單位相關的這一點，這實際上與我們所說的支持設備相關，與新單位銷售相關。因此，在我們的指南所暗示的數量增加的情況下，這肯定也會帶動一些增加的支持設備銷售。

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。

I wonder if I can kind of squeeze 2 together on some of the many announcements on new business that you kind of detailed in your prepared remarks and have released over the last 12 to 18 months. The wide-body dump market you expand, I guess, with SANY Heavy into India. I wonder if you can just give us -- and I think you characterized as a $100 million annual opportunity in revenue, I wonder if you can give us the current state of that, the growth rate. I don't know if it will take them a couple of years to design and launch or if it's already launched. Just an update there.

我想知道我是否可以將你在準備好的評論中詳細說明並在過去 12 到 18 個月內發布的許多新業務公告中的一些內容擠在一起。我猜想，隨著三一重工進入印度，您將擴大寬體自卸市場。我想知道你是否可以給我們 - 我認為你的特徵是每年 1 億美元的收入機會，我想知道你是否可以給我們目前的狀態，增長率。我不知道他們是否需要幾年的時間來設計和推出，或者它是否已經推出。只是那裡的更新。

And I wonder if you could tell us anything on the A2 version of JLTV, how that revenue opportunity annually compares with the prior version and just when the -- if there is an upshift when it comes?

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們關於 JLTV A2 版本的任何信息，每年的收入機會與之前的版本相比如何，以及何時 - 如果有升檔出現？

Rob, it's Dave. Let me cover off of that material. So with the wide-body mining dump, the reference to India, that's relatively new, thus the announcement. Having said that, it's not a new chassis or vehicle per se. It's a vehicle that's actually been produced, being produced, elsewhere. So the idea there is to ultimately have that release to ultimately start to take place in India. So it's to your question, relatively early days for India.

羅伯，是戴夫。讓我把那材料蓋掉。因此，對於寬體採礦垃圾場，提到印度，這是相對較新的，因此宣布了這一消息。話雖如此，它本身並不是新的底盤或車輛。這是一種實際在其他地方生產、正在生產的車輛。因此，我們的想法是最終讓這種釋放最終開始在印度發生。所以這是你的問題，印度還處於相對早期的階段。

Having said that, we've had a fair bit of success, as mentioned, with the China market as well as export markets. We continue to be pleased there and also with the level of engagement with OEMs as well as end users in that particular market. But the -- I think it's certainly to our prepared comments and a number of other calls, the realization of that growth initiative has been a bit faster than we were certainly expecting and looking to build upon that success, the team's efforts to then start to look at more directly export markets as well as a market like India, which we believe is relatively early days.

話雖如此，如前所述，我們在中國市場和出口市場都取得了相當大的成功。我們繼續對這一點以及與原始設備製造商以及該特定市場的最終用戶的參與程度感到滿意。但是 - 我認為這肯定是我們準備好的評論和其他一些電話，實現增長計劃的速度比我們預期的要快一些，並且希望在成功的基礎上再接再厲，團隊的努力然後開始著眼於更直接的出口市場以及像印度這樣的市場，我們認為這還處於早期階段。

So the pace at which we ultimately get to say that $100 million incremental growth initiative target will largely depend, I think, on the success of the OEMs ultimately to penetrate with the end users in terms of that particular vehicle application.

因此，我認為，我們最終要說出 1 億美元的增量增長計劃目標的速度，在很大程度上取決於原始設備製造商最終能否成功滲透到特定車輛應用的最終用戶中。

On your JLTV question, the transmissions between the A1 and the A2 are identical. So the only difference is the OEM that's essentially making the vehicle. So at this point, as we're -- in our -- per our remarks, we're very pleased with the continuation of that program and look forward to working with both of those OEMs in terms of the vehicle lineups and delivering to the demand commitments that are out there. That relative program size of 55 is rather large. But when you extend it over a period of time, it's something, again, that can be really subject to the OEM schedules and ultimately, end user demand, but we're certainly pleased to continuing the platform and are prepared to supply to demand.

關於你的 JLTV 問題，A1 和 A2 之間的傳輸是相同的。所以唯一的區別是本質上製造車輛的原始設備製造商。所以在這一點上，正如我們 - 在我們 - 根據我們的評論，我們對該計劃的繼續感到非常高興，並期待與這兩家原始設備製造商在車輛陣容和交付方面進行合作要求現有的承諾。 55 的相對程序大小相當大。但是，當你將它延長一段時間後，它又會真正受到 OEM 時間表和最終用戶需求的影響，但我們當然很高興繼續使用該平台並準備按需供應。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

I guess just 2 questions. One, can you just talk about your order book for 2023? How much visibility you have and how you're thinking about the order book for 2024 and when you start to open that? And then my second question is, just with regards to the implied incrementals, it looks like the first quarter is probably the strongest and then it tapers off from there. So Fred, any color you could give on that?

我想只有2個問題。第一，你能談談你 2023 年的訂單嗎？您有多少知名度以及您如何考慮 2024 年的訂單以及何時開始打開訂單？然後我的第二個問題是，就隱含的增量而言，看起來第一季度可能是最強的，然後從那裡逐漸減少。那麼弗雷德，你可以給它塗上什麼顏色？

Jamie, it's Dave. I'll start and then hand it over to Fred. So the 2023 order book, as you mentioned, really is consistent with other public company comments you've already heard in terms of relatively strong demand. So we, as our guide implies, continue to look forward to supplying to that demand. I would say the underlying dynamics of North America right now, medium duty and vocational continue to be strong. So what we're hearing at least relative to OEM expectations are rather full year for '23. I think it's a little early to call a '24 forecast. The third-party forecast providers are out there as you well know.

傑米，是戴夫。我會開始，然後交給弗雷德。因此，正如您提到的那樣，2023 年的訂單確實與您在相對強勁的需求方面已經聽到的其他上市公司的評論一致。因此，正如我們的指南所暗示的那樣，我們繼續期待滿足這種需求。我想說現在北美的潛在動力，中型和職業繼續強勁。因此，至少相對於 OEM 的預期，我們聽到的是 23 年的全年。我認為現在稱 24 年預測為時過早。眾所周知，第三方預報提供商在那裡。

I would certainly say as we've said over a number of quarters now, in the last few years, it's really going to be very much dependent on the broader industry's ability to both supply the required components and then, of course, build them. The constrained situation, we would describe as some level of improvement. I think that's consistent with what other public companies have provided in their comments for the first calendar quarter. I would offer, though, we continue to see a lack of buffers in the market. So it does create some level of disruption on a relatively short-notice basis. So we're still seeing some of that, and of course, labor, I think, broadly is -- continues to be a constraint.

我肯定會說，正如我們在過去的幾個季度裡所說的那樣，在過去的幾年裡，它真的非常依賴於更廣泛的行業提供所需組件的能力，當然還有構建它們的能力。受限情況，我們將描述為某種程度的改進。我認為這與其他上市公司在第一季度的評論中提供的一致。不過，我要說的是，我們繼續看到市場缺乏緩衝。因此，它確實在相對較短的通知基礎上造成了一定程度的破壞。所以我們仍然看到其中的一些，當然，我認為，勞動力，從廣義上講，仍然是一個制約因素。

So '23 strong demand. We expect some of that to certainly carry over in '24 again, subject to the overall ability of the market, the suppliers as well as the OEMs, to ultimately produce. I'll hand it over to Fred for your other question.

所以'23強烈需求。我們預計其中一些肯定會在 24 年再次延續，這取決於市場、供應商和原始設備製造商最終生產的整體能力。我會把它交給 Fred 來回答你的其他問題。

Yes. Thanks, Jamie. And as you mentioned, it was certainly a strong Q1. EBITDA margins up 120 basis points to 37.2% on a year-over-year basis. Higher gross profit driving it, over 800 basis points of price on a year-over-year basis, favorable mix with the parts in the North American On-Highway and that being offset by cost increases and higher SG&A expenses in the quarter. As we think about the updated guidance at a midpoint, we updated revenue by $75 million with $55 million of that dropping through to EBITDA at a midpoint. So 73% drop-throughs.

是的。謝謝，傑米。正如你提到的，這肯定是一個強大的 Q1。 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長 120 個基點至 37.2%。更高的毛利推動了它，價格同比增長超過 800 個基點，與北美高速公路上的零件進行了有利的組合，並且被本季度成本增加和更高的 SG&A 費用所抵消。當我們考慮中點的更新指南時，我們將收入更新了 7500 萬美元，其中 5500 萬美元在中點下降到 EBITDA。所以 73% 的掉線率。

So certainly, robust drop-throughs there. And then relative to the comment on incrementals, and clearly, we've capped them at the midpoint. We have Q2 through Q4 well down off of the strong margin performance in Q1. Still the implied guide would have you up close to 100 basis points versus Q2 to Q4 of 2022.

所以當然，那裡有強大的直通。然後相對於對增量的評論，很明顯，我們將它們限制在中點。我們的第二季度到第四季度遠遠低於第一季度強勁的利潤率表現。與 2022 年第二季度至第四季度相比，隱含的指南仍然會讓你接近 100 個基點。

Our next question is from Felix Boeschen with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Felix Boeschen 和 Raymond James。

I'm just curious, if you don't mind expanding on a comment you made in your prepared remarks. But with vehicle prices up substantially globally, I would think that makes the value proposition of an Allison Transmission higher. I guess, I'm wondering, could you maybe just expand on that idea? And what I'm really curious about is to what degree do you think that could open maybe some underpenetrated vehicle verticals or should we think about it really more of a pricing opportunity through cycles? I appreciate it.

我只是好奇，如果你不介意擴展你在準備好的發言中發表的評論。但隨著全球汽車價格大幅上漲，我認為這會使艾里遜變速箱的價值主張更高。我想，我想知道，你能不能擴展一下這個想法？我真正好奇的是，您認為這可能會在多大程度上打開一些未充分滲透的汽車垂直領域，或者我們是否應該更多地考慮它是一個通過週期定價的機會？我很感激。

Felix, this is Dave. I guess let me try to cover that. So just very briefly, when you think about our -- as you mentioned, at our end user value proposition, multiple attributes, right? It's productivity. We get into maintenance savings, which really get to life cycle cost, fuel efficiency, driver skill set, training, shift quality, safety, residual value. As you all know, the price of vehicles, given inflation and a number of other market dynamics, are all up.

菲利克斯，這是戴夫。我想讓我嘗試涵蓋這一點。所以非常簡單，當你考慮我們的 - 正如你提到的，在我們的最終用戶價值主張中，多重屬性，對嗎？是生產力。我們開始節省維護費用，這實際上涉及生命週期成本、燃油效率、駕駛員技能、培訓、換檔質量、安全性、剩餘價值。眾所周知，考慮到通貨膨脹和其他一些市場動態，車輛價格都在上漲。

When you look at the value proposition attributes that I just mentioned, inflation has impacted all of those, whether it be wages, the cost of repairs, the downtime for vehicle repairs, the lead times to actually get the work done, the availability of skilled drivers to actually operate a manual transmission versus a fully automatic product, et cetera. So the training time, which would be necessarily shorter, as you can expect an automatic versus a manual, and ultimately, the performance of the fully automatic product in certain vocations.

當你看我剛才提到的價值主張屬性時，通貨膨脹影響了所有這些，無論是工資、維修成本、車輛維修的停機時間、實際完成工作的準備時間、熟練技術人員的可用性駕駛員實際操作手動變速箱與全自動產品等。因此，培訓時間必然會更短，正如您可以預期的那樣，自動產品與手動產品相比，最終是全自動產品在某些職業中的表現。

So to your question, when you think about all those attributes and all of them have gone up in terms of cost, the value proposition of the Allison necessarily has increased. And that's really the focus. I think your comment in terms of opening up other markets, we've seen even outside of North America with the dynamics and some of that was certainly accelerated by COVID. There's also regions that are struggling with the same thing that the U.S. is in terms of skilled drivers relative to manual transmission.

所以對於你的問題，當你考慮所有這些屬性並且所有這些屬性都在成本方面上升時，Allison 的價值主張必然會增加。這才是真正的重點。我認為你在開放其他市場方面的評論，我們甚至在北美以外的地區也看到了這種動態，其中一些肯定是由 COVID 加速的。還有一些地區正在努力解決與美國相同的問題，即與手動變速箱相關的熟練駕駛員方面。

So it is certainly opening up, I think, more opportunities for fully automatic penetration. And just given all the cost inflation, which is global the last time we checked, you have an improved value proposition throughout the world. So the team is obviously taking that opportunity to continue to point out why the Allison is a better solution. And we've said many times, we sell based on value to the end user, not our cost.

因此，我認為，它肯定會為全自動滲透帶來更多機會。考慮到我們上次檢查時全球性的所有成本通貨膨脹，你在全世界都有一個改進的價值主張。所以團隊顯然是在藉此機會繼續指出為什麼艾里遜是更好的解決方案。我們已經說過很多次，我們的銷售基於對最終用戶的價值，而不是我們的成本。

So everything that I just rolled through certainly pushes you or certainly gets you to a point where you could conclude that the Allison -- the value of the Allison has certainly gone up, as we should, we're achieving more value for the product in the marketplace.

因此，我剛剛介紹的所有內容肯定會推動您或肯定會讓您得出這樣的結論：Allison - Allison 的價值肯定已經上升，正如我們應該的那樣，我們正在為產品實現更多價值市場。

Our next question is from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

Congrats on excellent results. My first question is on the defense segment. I think it saw a negative growth in the first quarter. Are you still expecting sort of 8% growth throughout the year? And if so, what would be the cadence of growth in that segment?

祝賀取得優異成績。我的第一個問題是關於國防領域的。我認為它在第一季度出現了負增長。您是否仍期望全年增長 8%？如果是這樣，該細分市場的增長節奏是什麼？

Tami, it's Dave. Thank you for the question. Defense, you understand, at least with tracked programs generally are subject to a number of program execution requirements and time lines. In many cases, Allison doesn't control those. We try our best. But I would say the -- generally speaking, the broader industry at this point is pretty challenged with anything at low volume heavy-duty type of products. So we -- the team here is working through a number of constraints as well as the OEMs. First quarter, I would certainly describe as an outlier when you look at the balance of the year in terms of our expectations.

塔米，是戴夫。感謝你的提問。防禦，您了解，至少跟踪程序通常會受到一些程序執行要求和時間線的約束。在許多情況下，Allison 無法控制這些。我們盡力而為。但我要說的是——一般來說，目前更廣泛的行業在任何低容量重型產品方面都面臨著相當大的挑戰。所以我們 - 這裡的團隊正在努力解決許多限制以及原始設備製造商。第一季度，當你根據我們的預期來看今年的餘額時，我肯定會把它描述為一個異常值。

So I would -- if you look at the guide overall, we're certainly still comfortable with that plus or minus 8% year-over-year. I would, though, point you to, just given schedules on the track side, that we expect second half to be heavier than first half for a number of reasons. So hopefully, that answered your question.

所以我會——如果你從整體上看指南，我們肯定仍然對同比增減 8% 感到滿意。不過，我要指出的是，就賽道方面的時間表而言，由於多種原因，我們預計下半場將比上半年更重。希望這能回答您的問題。

It does. That's very helpful. And apologies if I'm repeating what you already answered earlier, but did you give what was price-cost impact in the quarter? And what was pricing in general in the quarter?

確實如此。這很有幫助。如果我重複你之前已經回答過的內容，我深表歉意，但你是否給出了本季度的價格成本影響？本季度的總體定價是多少？

Sure, Tami. This is Fred. We realized $56 million in price in the quarter. So over 800 basis points of price. But when you -- as you look throughout the year, it's important to realize that we had multiple price actions in 2022, so the first quarter is clearly our easiest comp from a pricing standpoint. As we're looking at full year, when we came out with initial guide in February, we were about 400 basis points in price. Based on where we've ended up, we're anticipating being closer to 475 basis points in price.

當然，塔米。這是弗雷德。我們在本季度實現了 5600 萬美元的價格。所以超過 800 個基點的價格。但是當你 - 正如你全年看的那樣，重要的是要意識到我們在 2022 年有多個價格行動，所以從定價的角度來看，第一季度顯然是我們最簡單的比較。當我們展望全年時，當我們在 2 月份發布初步指南時，我們的價格約為 400 個基點。根據我們的最終結果，我們預計價格接近 475 個基點。

We were unfavorable from a material and a manufacturing cost standpoint in Q1 on a year-over-year basis. Direct material cost, excluding volume, was up $8 million and manufacturing cost was up about $10 million. But certainly, have cost significantly or price at this point, significantly outrunning cost.

從材料和製造成本的角度來看，我們在第一季度與去年同期相比是不利的。不包括體積的直接材料成本增加了 800 萬美元，製造成本增加了約 1000 萬美元。但可以肯定的是，此時的成本或價格明顯超過了成本。

Got it. And is that a fair run rate sort of for the remaining 3 quarters, like positive price cost?

知道了。對於剩下的 3 個季度來說，這是一個公平的運行率，比如正價格成本嗎？

It will be positive price cost is definitely what we're anticipating for the balance of the year.

這將是積極的價格成本，這絕對是我們對今年餘下時間的預期。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Dave Graziosi for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回 Dave Graziosi 以發表結束評論。

Thank you, Camilla. Thank you for your continued interest in Allison and for participating on today's call. Enjoy your evening.

謝謝你，卡米拉。感謝您一直以來對 Allison 的關注並參與今天的電話會議。享受你的夜晚。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。