雅保公司 (ALB) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q3 2020 Albemarle Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候並歡迎參加 Albemarle Corporation 2020 年第三季（Q3）財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

I would now like to hand the conference over to your presenter today, Ms. Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, madam.

現在我想將會議交給今天的簡報人：投資人關係副總裁 Meredith Bandy 女士。謝謝。女士，請開始。

All right. Thanks, Marcus, and welcome to Albemarle's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

好的。謝謝你，Marcus，也歡迎各位參加 Albemarle 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。

Our earnings release after the close of the market yesterday and you'll find our press release, presentation and non-GAAP reconciliations posted to our website in the Investor Relations section at albemarle.com.

我們已於昨日收盤後發布財報新聞稿；您可在 albemarle.com 網站「投資人關係」專區找到新聞稿、簡報以及非 GAAP 調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer. Raphael Crawford, President, Catalyst; Netha Johnson, President, Bromine Specialties; and Eric Norris, President, Lithium, are also available for Q&A.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有執行長 Kent Masters，以及財務長 Scott Tozier。此外，催化劑事業群總裁 Raphael Crawford、溴素特殊品事業群總裁 Netha Johnson，以及鋰事業群總裁 Eric Norris 也將出席問答環節。

As a reminder, some of the statements made during this conference call, including our outlook, expected company performance, expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and proposed expansion projects may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws.

提醒各位，本次電話會議中的部分陳述（包括我們的展望、預期公司表現、COVID-19 疫情的預期影響以及擬議的擴產專案）可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements in our press release. That same language applies to this call. Please also note that some of our comments today may refer to financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release in the appendix of our presentation, both of which are posted on the website.

請留意我們新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的警示性用語。相同用語亦適用於本次電話會議。另請注意，我們今天的部分評論可能提及未依照美國 GAAP 編製的財務衡量指標。這些指標與 GAAP 財務指標之調節表可在我們的財報新聞稿以及簡報附錄中找到，兩者皆已發布於公司網站。

Now I'll turn the call over to Kent.

現在我把電話交給 Kent。

Thank you, Meredith, and good morning, everyone. On the call today, I will cover a high-level overview of results and strategy and highlight additional actions we're taking to improve the sustainability of and to grow our business. Scott will then review third quarter financials, provide updates on our balance sheet and cost savings initiatives and review our outlook.

謝謝你，Meredith，各位早安。今天的電話會議中，我將就業績與策略做高層次概述，並重點說明我們為提升永續性及推動業務成長所採取的進一步行動。接著 Scott 將回顧第三季財務表現，更新資產負債表與成本節省計畫的進度，並說明我們的展望。

At Albemarle, our first priority is the safety and well-being of our employees, customers and communities. Thanks to the courage and dedication of our employees, we've been able to safely operate our facilities throughout the pandemic to meet customer needs. Our cross-functional global response team continues to meet regularly to address -- to assess pandemic-related risks and adapt protocols as necessary. Protocols, including restricted travel, shift adjustments, increased hygiene and social distancing, remain in place at all locations. Our recent focus has shifted from managing the immediate crisis to building in flexibility to adjust for regional differences and changing conditions.

在 Albemarle，我們的首要任務是員工、客戶與社區的安全與福祉。憑藉員工的勇氣與投入，我們得以在疫情期間安全地持續營運各項設施，以滿足客戶需求。我們的跨職能全球應變團隊持續定期開會，以因應——評估與疫情相關的風險，並視需要調整作業規範。包含限制差旅、調整輪班、加強衛生與社交距離等措施，仍在所有據點實施。我們近期的重點已從管理眼前危機，轉向建立彈性，以因應各地區差異與變動的情勢。

Today, looking at our nonessential workers around the globe, most of North America remains on a work-from-home status. Asia and Australia have returned to work sites. Most of Europe returned to work sites over the summer but have now gone back to work from home given rising COVID-19 cases and rates. And finally, in Chile, improving COVID-19 rates and falling cases have allowed us to trial a soft reopening approach at a work site at reduced capacity. As we all know, the situation is challenging and continues to evolve. I'm grateful to our team for their continued vigilance and commitment to the working -- to working safely and productively.

目前，就全球的非必要人員而言，北美大多數地區仍維持居家辦公。亞洲與澳洲已回到工作現場。歐洲多數地區在夏季已回到工作現場，但因 COVID-19 病例與感染率上升，現已再度回到居家辦公。最後，在智利，隨著 COVID-19 感染率改善、病例下降，我們得以在一處工作現場以降低產能的方式試行逐步復工。眾所周知，情勢艱鉅且仍在演變。我感謝團隊持續保持警覺，並致力於——以安全且高效率的方式工作。

Turning to recent results. Yesterday, we released third quarter financials, including net income of $98 million or $0.92 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $216 million, down 15% from prior year. Our adjusted EBITDA results surpassed the high end of our Q3 outlook by 14%, thanks to better-than-expected performance in lithium and bromine and the exceptional cost-saving results across our businesses.

接著談近期業績。昨日我們發布第三季財務結果，包括淨利 9,800 萬美元（每股 0.92 美元），以及調整後 EBITDA 為 2.16 億美元，較去年同期下降 15%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 較第三季展望區間上緣高出 14%，主要受惠於鋰與溴素業務表現優於預期，以及各事業群卓越的成本節省成果。

We currently expect full year 2020 adjusted EBITDA of between $780 million and $810 million, lower year-over-year based on reduced global economic activity due to the global pandemic and reduced lithium pricing, as expected, going into the year. Scott will go into more detail on our outlook for the rest of this year and talk directionally about next year.

我們目前預期 2020 全年調整後 EBITDA 介於 7.80 億至 8.10 億美元；由於全球疫情導致全球經濟活動減少，以及如年初預期的鋰價下滑，全年表現將較去年下降。Scott 將就今年剩餘期間的展望提供更多細節，並就明年的方向性趨勢進行說明。

In late 2019, we launched an initiative to achieve sustainable cost savings of over $100 million per year by the end of 2021, with about half of that, or $50 million, to be achieved in 2020. Earlier this year, with the onset of the pandemic-related economic slowdown, we accelerated those initiatives, giving us line of sight to $50 million to $70 million savings in 2020. Implementation has been even more successful than we expected and we are on track to deliver about $80 million in savings this year and to reach a run rate of more than $120 million by the end of 2021. We plan to turn this 2-year project into an ongoing culture of operating discipline and continuous improvement with additional cost and efficiency targets.

在 2019 年底，我們啟動一項計畫，目標是在 2021 年底前達成每年超過 1 億美元的可持續成本節省，其中約一半（即 5,000 萬美元）預計於 2020 年達成。今年稍早，隨著疫情引發的經濟放緩，我們加速推動這些措施，使我們能清楚掌握 2020 年可節省 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。執行成效甚至優於預期；我們正按計畫在今年實現約 8,000 萬美元的節省，並在 2021 年底前達到超過 1.2 億美元的年化節省水準。我們計畫將這項為期兩年的專案轉化為持續性的營運紀律與持續改善文化，並設定更多成本與效率目標。

Our strategic approach to sustainability is another facet of this operational discipline and a key area of focus for Albemarle. Since we spoke last quarter, we have published our enhanced sustainability report which expands on the 4 key quadrants of our sustainability framework and sets the baseline for our environmental performance and increased disclosures. Now we are working to establish sustainability goals and targets and continue to make progress in each quadrant.

我們在永續方面的策略作法，是這項營運紀律的另一個面向，也是 Albemarle 的重點領域。自上季通話以來，我們已發布強化版永續報告，進一步闡述永續架構的四大關鍵象限，並建立我們環境績效的基準與更高程度的資訊揭露。目前我們正著手制定永續目標與指標，並持續在各象限推進進展。

This week, we also published our global labor policy in alignment with international labor organization conventions and our Human Rights and Global Community Relations & Indigenous Peoples Policies, both consistent with UN guiding principles. These policies will be available on the Sustainability section of our website.

本週，我們也發布全球勞工政策，使其與國際勞工組織（ILO）公約一致；並發布《人權政策》以及《全球社區關係與原住民族政策》，兩者皆符合聯合國指導原則。這些政策將公布於我們網站的「永續」專區。

I'm proud to say that Albemarle generates more than 50% of our revenues from products that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote greater resource efficiency. As our lithium business grows, an even larger proportion of our business will contribute to global sustainability.

我很自豪地表示，Albemarle 超過 50% 的營收來自有助於降低溫室氣體排放或提升資源使用效率的產品。隨著鋰業務成長，我們將有更大比例的業務為全球永續發展做出貢獻。

In summary, we are concentrating our efforts where they matter most so we can continue to create sustainable value for our customers, investors and stakeholders.

總結而言，我們正把資源集中在最重要的事項上，以便持續為客戶、投資人與利害關係人創造可持續的價值。

Our growth projects at La Negra and Kemerton are key to increasing our battery-grade lithium conversion capacity in line with long-term customer demand. La Negra III and IV is an expansion of our lithium carbonate capacity in Chile. The project is expected to reach mechanical completion in mid-2021 followed by a 6-month commissioning and qualification process. La Negra III and IV allows us to add carbonate capacity at the very low end of the cost curve.

我們在 La Negra 與 Kemerton 的成長專案，是依據長期客戶需求提升電池級鋰轉換產能的關鍵。La Negra III 與 IV 為我們在智利的碳酸鋰產能擴建計畫。該專案預計於 2021 年年中達到機械完工，之後將進行為期 6 個月的試車與認證流程。La Negra III 與 IV 使我們能在成本曲線的極低端新增碳酸鹽產能。

Kemerton, our new lithium hydroxide conversion plant in Western Australia, is on track to reach mechanical completion by late '21, with a 6-month commissioning and qualification process to follow. Kemerton is core to growing our hydroxide capacity in line with expected strong long-term market demand.

Kemerton——我們位於西澳的新建氫氧化鋰轉換工廠——正按計畫於 2021 年底前達到機械完工，之後將進行為期 6 個月的試車與認證流程。Kemerton 是我們依據預期強勁的長期市場需求擴增氫氧化物產能的核心專案。

And with that update, I'll turn it over to Scott for more detail on our recent results.

有了這項更新之後，我將把時間交給 Scott，請他更詳細說明我們近期的業績表現。

Thank you, Kent. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Kent。各位早安。

Albemarle generated third quarter net sales of $747 million, a decrease of about 15% compared to the prior year and in line with our previous outlook. This reduction was driven primarily by reduced prices in lithium, as expected coming into the year, and reduced volumes in catalysts and bromine related to pandemic-related economic weakness. GAAP net income was $98 million or $0.92 per diluted share. The non-GAAP adjustments this quarter were primarily related to restructuring for cost savings and discrete tax items with adjusted earnings of $1.09 per diluted share. Lower net income was primarily driven by lower net sales, partially offset by cost and efficiency improvements. Corporate and SG&A costs were lower versus the prior year due to these cost savings initiatives.

Albemarle 第三季淨銷售額為 7.47 億美元，較去年同期下降約 15%，並符合我們先前的展望。這項下滑主要是由於鋰產品價格下降（如同年初預期），以及受疫情相關的經濟疲弱影響，催化劑與溴產品的銷量下滑所致。依 GAAP 計算的淨利為 9,800 萬美元，或稀釋後每股 0.92 美元。本季非 GAAP 調整項目主要與為節省成本而進行的重整，以及個別稅務項目相關；調整後稀釋後每股盈餘為 1.09 美元。淨利下降主要由較低的淨銷售額所致，部分被成本與效率改善所抵銷。由於這些節省成本的措施，企業費用與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用較去年同期降低。

As Kent stated, adjusted EBITDA was $216 million, a decrease of 15% from the prior year. The success of our short-term and sustainable savings initiatives as well as timing of equity income from the Talison JV helped us improve margins and beat the midpoint of our Q3 EBITDA outlook by about 20%.

如 Kent 所述，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.16 億美元，較去年同期下降 15%。我們短期與可持續節省成本措施的成效，以及 Talison 合資企業（JV）權益法收益入帳時點的影響，協助我們改善利潤率，並使第三季 EBITDA 展望的表現較中位數高出約 20%。

Turning to Slide 8 for a look at the EBITDA bridge by business segment. Adjusted EBITDA was down $38 million over the prior year, reflecting lower net sales and lower equity income, partially offset by cost savings initiatives and efficiency improvements. Lithium's adjusted EBITDA declined by $31 million versus the prior year, excluding currency. Pricing was down about 17%, partially offset by cost savings. Lower pricing reflects previously agreed battery-grade contract price concessions for 2020 as well as lower market pricing in technical-grade products.

接著請看投影片 8，了解按事業部門劃分的 EBITDA 橋接分析。調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期減少 3,800 萬美元，反映淨銷售額下降與權益法收益降低；部分被節省成本措施與效率改善所抵銷。鋰事業的調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）較去年同期下降 3,100 萬美元。價格約下降 17%，部分被節省成本所抵銷。較低的價格反映先前已同意的 2020 年電池級合約價格讓步，以及技術級產品市場價格走低。

Lithium EBITDA margin benefited from cost savings and the timing of Talison JV shipments to our partner, Tianqi. Bromine's adjusted EBITDA was down about $10 million, excluding currency. The decline was primarily due to lower volumes as a result of the pandemic-related economic downturn, partially offset by ongoing cost savings.

鋰事業的 EBITDA 利潤率受惠於節省成本，以及 Talison 合資企業對合作夥伴天齊（Tianqi）出貨時點的影響。溴事業的調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）約下降 1,000 萬美元。下滑主要由於疫情相關的經濟衰退導致銷量降低，部分被持續的節省成本所抵銷。

Likewise, catalyst's adjusted EBITDA declined by $30 million, excluding currency, primarily due to lower volumes offset by cost savings and efficiency improvements. Fluid catalytic cracking or FCC volume improved sequentially but remained down compared to the prior year due to lower transportation fuel consumption as a result of travel restrictions. Hydroprocessing catalysts or HPC volumes were also down compared to the prior year due to normal lumpiness of shipments and softness related to lower oil prices and reduced fuel demand.

同樣地，催化劑事業的調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）下降 3,000 萬美元，主要因銷量下滑，但被節省成本與效率改善所抵銷。流體觸媒裂解（FCC）銷量較前一季改善，但相較去年同期仍下降，原因是旅行限制導致運輸燃料消耗降低。加氫處理催化劑（HPC）銷量也較去年同期下降，原因包括出貨的正常波動性，以及油價較低與燃料需求減少所帶來的疲弱。

Our corporate and other category adjusted EBITDA increased by $15 million, excluding currency, primarily due to improved Fine Chemistry Services results.

我們的企業及其他類別調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）增加 1,500 萬美元，主要由於精細化學服務（Fine Chemistry Services）業績改善。

We ended the quarter with liquidity of about $1.5 billion, including just over $700 million of cash, $610 million remaining under our revolver and $220 million on other available credit lines. Total debt was $3.5 billion, representing net debt to adjusted EBITDA of approximately 3.2x. Our commercial paper is supported by our revolver which is not due until 2024, and so that leaves about $670 million of short-term debt to be restructured or repaid over the next year. We expect to repay the 2021 debt maturities out of cash on hand assuming continued economic recovery and cash inflows from divestitures. However, we are also working with our banks on a delayed-draw term loan to backstop those 2021 maturities. If the economic recovery or divestitures are delayed, we'd be able to refinance the short-term debt using this new delayed-draw term loan.

本季末我們的流動性約為 15 億美元，其中包括略高於 7 億美元的現金、循環信貸額度（revolver）尚餘 6.10 億美元，以及其他可用信用額度 2.20 億美元。總負債為 35 億美元，淨負債對調整後 EBITDA 約為 3.2 倍。我們的商業本票由循環信貸額度提供支持，而該額度到期日為 2024 年，因此未來一年約有 6.70 億美元的短期負債需要重整或償還。在假設經濟持續復甦以及資產出售帶來現金流入的情況下，我們預期將以手上現金償還 2021 年到期的債務。不過，我們也正與銀行洽談一筆可延後提用的定期貸款（delayed-draw term loan），以作為 2021 年到期債務的備援資金來源。若經濟復甦或資產出售延遲，我們將可利用這筆新的可延後提用定期貸款為短期負債再融資。

As Kent highlighted earlier, our 2020 sustainable cost savings initiative is on track to achieve cost reductions of about $80 million this year. That's 60% above our initial estimates. We expect to reach run rate savings of more than $120 million by the end of 2021, up 20% from the previous outlook.

如 Kent 先前強調，我們 2020 年可持續節省成本計畫正按進度推進，預計今年可實現約 8,000 萬美元的成本降低。這比我們最初估計高出 60%。我們預期到 2021 年底可達到超過 1.20 億美元的年度化（run rate）節省金額，較先前展望提高 20%。

We continue to expect our short-term cash management actions, such as travel restrictions, limited use of external services and consultants, and working capital management to save the company about $25 million to $40 million of cash per quarter this year. Next year, we expect some headwinds as some of these temporary cash savings reverse.

我們仍預期今年的短期現金管理措施（例如旅行限制、限制外部服務與顧問的使用，以及營運資金管理）可為公司每季節省約 2,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元的現金。明年，隨著部分暫時性的現金節省回轉，我們預期將面臨一些逆風。

Finally, we are nearing our expected range of 2020 capital spending to $850 million to $900 million based on timing of spend. Our 2 major capital projects, La Negra III and IV and Kemerton, remain on track for completion in mid-2021 and late 2021, respectively. They will begin generating sales revenue in 2022 following a roughly 6-month qualification period for each plant.

最後，依據支出時點，我們 2020 年資本支出預期區間正接近 8.50 億至 9.00 億美元。我們兩項主要資本專案 La Negra III 與 IV，以及 Kemerton，仍分別按計畫於 2021 年年中與 2021 年底完工。在各工廠約 6 個月的認證期後，將於 2022 年開始貢獻銷售收入。

Turning to our outlook. This quarter is a transition from quarterly to annual outlook. Our next quarter, we expect to return to our normal practice of giving annual outlooks. As we approach the end of the year, we currently expect to deliver full year 2020 net sales of around $3.1 billion at the midpoint of our range, adjusted EBITDA of between $780 million and $810 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share between $3.80 and $4.15.

接著談我們的展望。本季將從按季展望過渡到按年展望。下一季，我們預期將回到以往提供年度展望的慣例。隨著接近年底，我們目前預期 2020 全年淨銷售額在區間中位數約為 31 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 介於 7.80 億至 8.10 億美元之間，調整後稀釋後每股盈餘介於 3.80 至 4.15 美元。

Lithium's Q4 adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 10% to 20% compared to Q3 2020 as battery-grade customers continue to meet planned volume commitments. Bromine's Q4 EBITDA is expected to be similar to Q3. Stabilization in electronics and building and construction continue to help offset weakness in other NG's markets, particularly deepwater drilling and automotive.

鋰事業第四季調整後 EBITDA 預期較 2020 年第三季增加 10% 至 20%，因電池級客戶持續履行既定的採購量承諾。溴事業第四季 EBITDA 預期與第三季相近。電子與建築施工領域的穩定持續有助於抵銷其他 NG 市場的疲弱，特別是深水鑽探與汽車。

Finally, catalyst Q4 EBITDA is expected to be down between 20% and 30% sequentially, primarily due to HPC volumes and mix. FCC demand is expected to continue to recover with increased travel and depletion of global gasoline inventories, but Q4 is expected to be particularly weak for HPC catalysts, in part because of normal lumpiness but also as refiners continue to defer HPC spending into 2021 and 2022.

最後，催化劑事業第四季 EBITDA 預期將較前一季下降 20% 至 30%，主要由 HPC 的銷量與產品組合所致。隨著旅行增加以及全球汽油庫存去化，FCC 需求預期將持續復甦，但第四季對 HPC 催化劑而言預期將特別疲弱，部分原因是出貨的正常波動性，另外也因煉油商持續將 HPC 支出延後至 2021 年與 2022 年。

As we look beyond this year, visibility remains challenging. However, we are seeing signs of improvement or at least stabilization in our businesses. EV sales remain a key driver for the growth of our lithium business. Global EV sales were up 90% in the month of September compared to the previous year. September represented a new monthly record of EV registrations led by European EV sales. The rest of the world continues to rebound from the pandemic-related slowdown earlier this year, with year-to-date global EV sales up 15%. The fourth quarter is also typically a seasonally strong quarter for auto sales. And similarly, IHS market expects global EV production to increase by 20% to 30% in full year 2020 and by nearly 70% in 2021.

展望今年之後，能見度仍具挑戰。不過，我們在各項業務中已看到改善跡象，或至少呈現穩定。電動車（EV）銷售仍是推動我們鋰事業成長的關鍵驅動因素。全球電動車銷售在 9 月較去年同期成長 90%。9 月電動車登記量創下新的單月紀錄，主要由歐洲電動車銷售帶動。世界其他地區也持續自今年稍早疫情造成的放緩中反彈，年初至今全球電動車銷售成長 15%。第四季通常也是汽車銷售的季節性旺季。同樣地，IHS 市場預期 2020 全年全球電動車產量將增加 20% 至 30%，並在 2021 年增加近 70%。

Our bromine business supplies a diverse set of end markets and is generally driven by a broader consumer sentiment and global GDP. Consumer sentiment continues to improve in most regions, albeit still below pre-pandemic levels. Analysts now expect global and U.S. GDP to be down about 4% in 2020 before rebounding next year.

我們的溴業務供應多元的終端市場，整體而言主要受更廣泛的消費者信心與全球GDP所驅動。多數地區的消費者信心持續改善，但仍低於疫情前水準。分析師目前預期全球與美國GDP在2020年將下滑約4%，並於明年反彈。

Finally, in catalyst, after the sharp drop-off in March, U.S. miles driven has rebounded but remains well below normal levels. Similarly, refinery capacity utilization has improved from earlier this year but remains well below typical levels. Refinery utilization rates in the mid-70% range are a challenge for an industry designed to run efficiently at utilization rates of 85% or higher. Given recent shifts in demand and refining economics, we don't expect to see pre-pandemic levels until 2022 at the earliest.

最後，在催化劑方面，3月出現急遽下滑後，美國行駛里程已回升，但仍遠低於正常水準。同樣地，煉油廠產能利用率較今年稍早有所改善，但仍明顯低於典型水準。產業設計是要在85%或更高的利用率下高效率運轉，而目前約在70%中段的煉廠利用率對該產業而言是一項挑戰。鑑於近期需求與煉製經濟性的變化，我們預期最早也要到2022年才可能回到疫情前水準。

Forecasts and leading indicators like these help gauge the outlook for our end-use markets. However, a variety of factors, including supply chain lags, contract structure, inventory changes and regulatory impacts, can cause our results to differ from the underlying market conditions.

這類預測與領先指標有助於衡量我們終端應用市場的展望。然而，多種因素（包括供應鏈時滯、合約結構、庫存變動與法規影響）可能導致我們的結果與基礎市場狀況有所差異。

Now let's turn to Slide 13 for our current view of 2021. In lithium, we expect full year 2021 volumes to be relatively flat as our plants are effectively sold out given current volume constraints. We expect to see volume growth in 2022 as La Negra III and IV and Kemerton come online. Full year 2021 lithium prices are expected to be down slightly due primarily to lower average realized pricing for carbonate and technical-grade products. Discussions with long-term battery-grade customers are underway. It's too early to say what changes will be made to those contracts for 2021. Lower average market pricing and higher inventories may pressure pricing. At the same time, many of our customers remain concerned about security of long-term high-quality supply, which speaks to the strong demand growth seen for electric vehicles.

現在讓我們看第13頁，說明我們目前對2021年的看法。在鋰業務方面，考量目前的出貨量限制，我們的工廠實際上已接近全數售罄，因此預期2021年全年銷量將大致持平。隨著La Negra III與IV以及Kemerton投產，我們預期2022年將出現銷量成長。2021年全年鋰價預期將小幅下滑，主要是因為碳酸鋰與技術級產品的平均實現價格較低。我們正與長期電池級客戶進行討論。目前仍言之過早，尚無法判斷2021年這些合約將做出哪些調整。較低的平均市場價格與較高的庫存可能對價格造成壓力。同時，我們許多客戶仍擔憂長期高品質供應的安全性，這也反映出電動車所帶動的強勁需求成長。

In bromine, we expect full year 2021 results to improve slightly, assuming continued economic recovery and ongoing cost savings. Our bromine business was probably the least-impacted of our businesses during 2020 and that's part of the reason we expect a fairly modest improvement in 2021.

在溴業務方面，假設經濟持續復甦且成本節省措施延續，我們預期2021年全年業績將小幅改善。2020年期間，我們的溴業務可能是受影響最小的業務之一，這也是我們預期2021年改善幅度相對溫和的部分原因。

And in catalyst, we expect 2021 results to continue to improve from the very low level seen in 2020 but to remain well below our 2019 levels. Near term, catalyst results are challenging as reduced refinery capacity utilization and lower oil pricing continues to pressure our customers' margins. In the longer term, this business is well positioned in growth regions like the Middle East and Asia and poised to benefit as refineries shift production to chemicals.

而在催化劑方面，我們預期2021年業績將自2020年的極低水準持續改善，但仍將明顯低於2019年水準。短期內，催化劑業績仍具挑戰，因煉油廠產能利用率下降與油價偏低持續壓縮客戶利潤。長期而言，該業務在中東與亞洲等成長區域具備良好布局，並可望在煉廠將產出轉向化學品時受益。

Thanks, Scott. Economic conditions are improving but uncertainty remains, particularly if additional COVID-19 impacts lengthen the time to a full economic recovery. We have the playbook established and know-how to manage through subsequent ways of COVID-19 as necessary.

謝謝你，Scott。經濟狀況正在改善，但不確定性仍在，特別是若COVID-19的額外影響拉長全面經濟復甦所需時間。我們已建立行動手冊並具備相關專業能力，可在必要時因應後續的COVID-19疫情波動。

At the same time, we are confident in the long-term growth prospects of our core businesses and continue to focus on controlling what we can control. That means, first and foremost, focusing on the health and well-being of our employees, customers and communities. It also means building operational discipline and sustainability into all aspects of our business, including manufacturing, supply chain, capital project execution and the customer experience. We remain confident in our strategy and we will modify execution of that strategy to further position Albemarle for success.

同時，我們對核心業務的長期成長前景充滿信心，並持續專注於掌控我們能掌控的事項。這意味著，首要之務是關注員工、客戶與社區的健康與福祉。也意味著將營運紀律與永續性融入我們業務的各個面向，包括製造、供應鏈、資本專案執行以及客戶體驗。我們對自身策略仍具信心，並將調整該策略的執行方式，以進一步讓Albemarle更具成功條件。

All right. (Operator Instructions) Marcus, please proceed with the Q&A.

好的。（接線員指示）Marcus，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

（接線員指示）您的第一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Bob Koort。

This is Tom Glinski on for Bob. So first question is, you're guiding flat volumes in 2021 for lithium even though the battery chemicals market should be growing nicely next year. I guess this suggests that you're going to be losing market share. First, are you okay with that? And then second, if other producers capture that incremental volume in 2021 and get through the challenging qualification process with the customers, do you expect to regain that market share in 2022 and beyond? Or is there a risk your competitors maintain that?

我是Tom Glinski，代替Bob提問。第一個問題是：你們對2021年鋰的出貨量指引為持平，儘管電池化學品市場明年應該會有不錯的成長。我想這表示你們將會流失市占率。首先，你們可以接受這樣的情況嗎？第二，如果其他生產商在2021年承接了那部分增量並完成客戶艱難的認證流程，你們預期在2022年及之後能重新拿回市占率嗎？還是存在競爭對手維持該市占率的風險？

Tom, it's a function of our projects and when they're coming on and the capacity is coming on and who has that capacity to capture growth. So there's not a lot we can do about that. At this point, we're on our plan to bring that capacity on but the likely demand will pick up before we have that capacity. So we will lose a little share but we expect that, that will move back to us as we get that capacity on as the market continues to grow out into the future.

Tom，這取決於我們的專案進度、何時投產、產能何時到位，以及誰擁有可用產能來承接成長。所以我們能做的其實不多。目前我們正按計畫導入產能，但需求很可能會在我們產能到位之前就回升。因此我們會流失一些市占率，但我們預期隨著產能到位、且市場在未來持續成長，這些市占率會回到我們這邊。

Great. That makes sense. And then, I guess higher level looking at 2021, considering the moving pieces between price down in lithium; volume, flat but capturing some incremental cost savings, do you think you can grow segment EBITDA next year? Or is EBITDA going to be flat to down?

了解。這很合理。接著，從更高層次看2021年，考量鋰價下滑、銷量持平但可取得一些額外成本節省等變動因素，你們認為明年能讓該事業部的EBITDA成長嗎？還是EBITDA會持平到下滑？

Well frankly, it's going to -- it'll depend on how the market develops over the year. It's -- without having volume, we'll have some cost savings to offset inflation and those pieces -- but we'll be close, we'll be around flat unless we get a material change in pricing.

坦白說，這將取決於市場在一年中的發展情況。在沒有銷量成長的情況下，我們會有一些成本節省來抵銷通膨，而這些因素——但我們會接近持平，大致持平，除非價格出現實質性的變化。

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的David Begleiter。

This is [Johan] here for Dave. I guess, first, just on pricing because some industry pricing have bottomed and even some carbonate pricing started to recover. I guess if you can just elaborate a little bit more on your pricing weakness in carbonate in '21. And do you expect that to bottom during the year? Or would that be like a 2022 story?

我是[Johan]，代替Dave提問。我想先問價格：因為一些產業價格已經觸底，甚至部分碳酸鋰價格也開始回升。想請你們再多說明一下，為何你們在2021年碳酸鋰的價格仍偏弱。你們預期會在年內觸底嗎？還是要到2022年才會反映？

Yes. I'll make a comment and then let Eric give you a little bit more detail on his perspective. So -- and that's the magic question. It looks like when you look at the indices out there, that it's at least bottomed if not starting to tick up a little bit, but we probably need to see that a bit more to have more confidence. But we are anticipating that, that turns up during '21 and the question is when during '21.

是的。我先簡單回應，接著讓Eric從他的角度提供更多細節。所以——這就是那個關鍵問題。從外部指數來看，似乎至少已經觸底，甚至開始略微上揚，但我們可能還需要再多觀察一些，才能更有信心。不過我們預期在2021年會轉為上行，問題在於2021年的哪個時間點。

So Eric, you want to add something?

所以 Eric，你想補充些什麼嗎？

Yes. I can add specifically relative to carbonate. This is -- when we look at where the growth is, it's coming in the coming year. If we look at what's happened this year, it's more of a hydroxide growth story. Carbonate is therefore not enjoying as much of that. There is some growth in China. China is where we see more of these low prices and it's a more oversupplied market. Now -- so it is the magic question, as Kent referred to.

是的。我可以特別就碳酸鋰補充說明。這是——當我們看成長來自哪裡時，它會出現在接下來的一年。如果我們看今年發生的情況，更多是氫氧化鋰成長的故事。因此碳酸鋰並沒有同樣程度地受惠。中國有一些成長。中國是我們看到較低價格、且市場供給更過剩的地方。現在——所以這就是 Kent 所提到的那個關鍵問題。

We have on some reported indices seen it ticking up, others see it flat. It's -- even from the price reporting groups that report price around the world, and in China specifically, it's murky and well below marginal cash cost. So the price of carbonate has gone well below where we thought it would have gone 6 months ago.

我們在一些已報導的指數上看到價格開始小幅上揚，其他則認為持平。這——即使是那些在全球、尤其在中國報價的價格報導機構，情況也不明朗，而且價格遠低於邊際現金成本。所以碳酸鋰的價格已經跌到遠低於我們 6 個月前所預期的水準。

It is trending up in one report. We'll have to see. Our view would be that given the supply dynamics I talked about and the growth being more driven on the hydroxide side, that a clear movement above marginal cash cost for the spot prices of carbonate is more likely a 2022 event. Not to say it couldn't happen in '21 but it looks more favorable in 2022. Hydroxide, however, will be different, we believe.

在其中一份報告中它呈現上行趨勢。我們還得再觀察。我們的看法是，考量我剛才談到的供給動態，以及成長更多由氫氧化鋰端帶動，碳酸鋰現貨價格要明確走到高於邊際現金成本之上，更可能會是 2022 年的事件。不是說 2021 年不可能發生，但 2022 年看起來更有利。不過我們認為，氫氧化鋰會不一樣。

And then on catalyst, it looks like the recovery is a little bit slower than expected. So since you're guiding -- I mean sales would be up slightly in '21. I guess what kind of improvement are we talking about? And then just given that if we stay at the current pace of recovery and catalyst stays, do you expect that we can achieve the same level of EBITDA in 2022 of '19 level?

然後就催化劑而言，看起來復甦比預期稍慢一些。所以既然你們在指引——我的意思是 2021 年銷售會小幅成長。我想問我們談的是哪種程度的改善？另外，如果我們維持目前的復甦速度、催化劑也維持這樣，你們預期 2022 年能達到與 2019 年同等水準的 EBITDA 嗎？

So I'll comment and Raphael can also comment. But I think a lot of that -- it depends on demand and the view of what -- when driving comes back, when travel comes back. And it's really about fuel demand and refinery utilization for us. So our view, we don't see us getting back to '19 levels for -- until -- into '22, probably very late '22, to be back to that both from a fuel demand, utilization and from our perspective as well.

我先回應，Raphael 也可以補充。但我認為其中很大一部分——取決於需求，以及對於——何時開車出行回來、何時旅行回來的看法。對我們而言，核心其實是燃料需求與煉油廠開工率。所以我們的看法是，我們不會回到 2019 年的水準——要到——進入 2022 年，可能是 2022 年非常後期，才會在燃料需求、開工率以及我們自身的表現上回到那個水準。

This is Raphael. I think that's right, Kent. And when we look at the outlook, there's a few things that play in. One is the impact of the pandemic and when do fuel volumes recover to 2019 levels, and that's a volume component. The other is refining margins. So there's a lot of pressure on refineries right now. Just total value of refined products from a margin perspective have gone down. And when that recovers, that's going to be dependent on volume but also on utilization, industry capacity. And so we wouldn't see that returning, as Kent said, until sometime 2022 time frame.

我是 Raphael。我認為你說得對，Kent。當我們看展望時，有幾個因素會影響。其一是疫情的影響，以及燃料銷量何時能恢復到 2019 年水準，這是量的因素。另一個是煉油利差。所以目前煉油廠承受很大壓力。就利差角度而言，精煉產品的總價值已經下降。而何時能恢復，將取決於銷量，也取決於開工率與產業產能。因此如 Kent 所說，我們不會看到它回到原先水準，直到 2022 年某個時間點。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Mike Harrison。

Coming back to this idea that lithium volumes are sold out for next year, if there is some additional demand pickup or if some of this oversupply or inventory gets worked down, could that put you in a position to drive higher pricing? And can you maybe also comment on whether you have any flexibility to move more volume or to maybe accelerate some of your production if you do see demand picking up?

回到你提到明年鋰的銷量已售罄這個概念，如果需求再額外回升，或是部分供給過剩或庫存被消化下來，是否可能讓你們有條件推動更高的價格？另外也請你們談談，如果看到需求回升，你們是否有任何彈性可以增加出貨量，或是加速部分產量？

Yes. So if the market gets tight and the supply is not there, I mean, prices should move up. I mean we kind of expect to see that around hydroxide, less about -- less with carbonate. And it's difficult. I mean we had delayed our projects a bit. When the pandemic hit, we just didn't know what things were going to look like. And as soon as we got some visibility, we kind of tried to pull those back as much as possible. And we haven't lost much time on that and we haven't really lost -- our capital estimates are still kind of the same range as well. So -- but it's really not possible for us to pull it more forward than our current plans. We wouldn't be able to accelerate now the impact when those projects are coming on stream.

是的。所以如果市場變得吃緊、供給跟不上，價格理應上漲。我們大致預期這會更多發生在氫氧化鋰，較不是——較少發生在碳酸鋰。而這很困難。我的意思是，我們之前把一些專案延後了。疫情爆發時，我們不知道情況會變成什麼樣。一旦有了一些能見度，我們就盡可能把那些時程往前拉回來。我們在這方面沒有損失太多時間，而且我們也沒有真的失去——我們的資本支出估算仍大致落在相同區間。所以——但我們不可能把進度再比目前計畫更往前拉。我們現在也無法加速，讓那些專案投產的時間點更早產生影響。

So from our perspective, I don't think we're going to have extra capacity to what we are anticipating. We may be a little early with the projects, earlier than our plan, but it's not going to be dramatic.

所以從我們的角度來看，我不認為我們會有超出預期的額外產能。我們的專案可能會比計畫稍微早一點，但不會有戲劇性的差異。

All right. And I think everybody is kind of focused on what's happening here in the U.S. from a political standpoint, but can you maybe talk about Chile and whether some of the political news there could impact your relationship with the government or your rights in the Atacama.

好的。我想大家都很關注美國這邊政治面的發展，但你們能否談談智利，以及那邊的一些政治新聞是否可能影響你們與政府的關係，或你們在阿塔卡馬（Atacama）的權利？

Right. So well I mean, you know what's happening there so they're going to vote to redo their constitution. That's going to -- that's a pretty long process that they have in place to do that. And so far, that's all been without too much turmoil. So we don't -- we have to wait and see what that constitution looks like. We don't really expect it to impact our rights in the Atacama, but I mean, I guess that's something we'll have to wait and see. I don't think it would be -- I mean it's not in Chile's interest to start changing how they work with the international community. Chile's got a great reputation following the rule of law and having a strong economy in South America. It's going to be an example. So I don't think they want to change that, but it's something we'll have to watch very closely as that plays out.

好的。所以嗯，你也知道那邊正在發生什麼，他們將投票決定是否要重新制定憲法。這——他們為此設計了一個相當長的流程。到目前為止，整體進行並沒有太多動盪。所以我們——我們必須等著看那部憲法最後會長什麼樣。我們並不真的預期它會影響我們在阿塔卡馬的權利，但我的意思是，我想這仍是我們必須觀察的事情。我不認為它會——我的意思是，開始改變他們與國際社會合作的方式，並不符合智利的利益。智利在遵循法治、以及在南美擁有強健經濟方面享有很好的聲譽。它會成為一個典範。所以我不認為他們想改變這一點，但這是我們必須非常密切關注其後續發展的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

Just wondering, you talked about sort of 60% of your assets you're going after with the new -- 2 new projects that are going to come on. What about the other 40%? Can you talk sort of from a medium-term perspective what's it going to take for you to go after those assets? How much money it would require in CapEx spending? And at what point will you start talking about how you'll go after that and how you'll finance it?

想請教一下，你提到透過新的——即將上線的兩個新專案，你們會去開發大約 60% 的資產。那另外 40% 呢？能否從中期角度談談，你們要開發那些資產需要具備哪些條件？需要多少資本支出（CapEx）？以及你們會在什麼時點開始談你們將如何推進、以及如何籌措資金？

I'm not -- Vincent, I'm not sure I'm clear on the question. So to go after the other 40% of the asset?

我不是——Vincent，我不確定我是否清楚理解這個問題。所以是要去開發該資產其餘的40%？

Yes. I guess my question is when should we anticipate the other 40% coming online? And how much will you have to spend to do it?

是的。我想我的問題是，我們應該何時預期其餘40%會上線？以及你們需要花多少資本支出來完成？

From a resource standpoint, you're talking...

從資源的角度來看，你指的是……

Correct.

沒錯。

Yes. Okay. So I mean -- so we have access to those resources to which it's just about building conversion capacity. So we've kind of started that process. So La Negra and Kemerton is part of that. So we're building that out. We'll sell those plants out and then we'll layer in additional capacity to go after. And that's our strategy and our plan longer term.

是的。好的。所以我的意思是——我們可以取得那些資源，重點只是建立轉換產能。因此我們已經算是開始了這個流程。La Negra 和 Kemerton 就是其中一部分。所以我們正在把那部分建起來。我們會把那些工廠的產能賣滿，然後再逐步疊加額外產能去爭取。這就是我們的策略與長期計畫。

We haven't necessarily laid out a CapEx program publicly over time but that's the plan, is we build capacity and then we sell it out and then we reinvest.

我們不一定已經對外公開一個隨時間推進的資本支出（CapEx）計畫，但計畫就是：我們先建產能，然後把它賣滿，再把資金再投資。

Sorry. As a follow-up then to the earlier question about market share, how do you think about the medium term in terms of not per se having a suggested time line for that other 40% of production versus how fast do you think the market is going to grow? Do you think you'll be able to bring that 40% on in conjunction with market growth? Or is it possible that it will lag?

抱歉。那我接著追問先前關於市占率的問題：在中期來看，你們如何思考——不是說一定要有一個明確的時間表來讓那另外40%的產量上線——相對於你們認為市場會以多快速度成長？你們覺得能否在市場成長的同時把那40%帶上來？還是有可能會落後？

Well we'll be layering in that capacity. So what we're trying to do is kind of get it just right. We add capacity as the market grows and bring that on as it's required. And it's a matter of how well we execute and how well we forecast the market. But we think we can. That's what we're trying to do.

我們會逐步疊加那個產能。所以我們想做的是把節奏拿捏得剛剛好。我們會隨著市場成長增加產能，並在需要時把它導入上線。這取決於我們執行得多好，以及我們對市場預測得多準。但我們認為可以做到。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

Nice progress on the cost savings efforts. The debt backstop indicates some uncertainty here in the divestment process for fine chemicals and catalyst additives. Are we expecting 1 buyer for both or 2? And do you think both will be announced before year-end?

在節省成本方面進展不錯。債務後備安排（backstop）顯示在精細化學品與催化劑添加劑的剝離流程上仍有一些不確定性。我們預期會是同一位買家同時買兩個業務，還是兩位買家各買一個？你認為兩項交易都會在年底前宣布嗎？

John, this is Scott. So we're expecting that we'd have 2 different buyers for those 2 different businesses. Discussions continue favorably on both of those. A little bit too early to call exactly when we'd be able to announce a deal on either one of them but obviously we're pushing hard to do that.

John，我是 Scott。我們預期這兩個不同的業務會有兩個不同的買家。兩邊的討論都在有利地持續進行。現在要精確判斷何時能宣布任何一項交易還稍早，但很明顯我們正全力推進。

The backstop is also related to economic uncertainty. And so we just got to -- I think we just got to get through the winter period and the increase in COVID cases and whatever the government reactions to this are to fully understand kind of where we end up in 2021. And that's -- it's really just a safety valve for us in case things go in the wrong direction. And the banks have been very supportive of us and our story, so really appreciate their contributions.

這個後備安排也與經濟不確定性有關。所以我們必須——我想我們必須度過冬季期間、COVID 病例增加，以及政府可能的因應措施，才能更完整地理解 2021 年最終會落在什麼狀況。這——對我們而言真的只是個安全閥，以防事情往不利方向發展。銀行一直非常支持我們與我們的故事，因此非常感謝他們的貢獻。

And then you mentioned in the third quarter the benefit of a timing of Talison shipments to Tianqi. Was that a catch-up from 2Q? It doesn't sound like it's a pull-forward from the fourth quarter given the strong fourth quarter guidance.

另外你提到第三季受惠於 Talison 對天齊（Tianqi）出貨時點的影響。那是第二季的補出貨嗎？考量到第四季指引很強，看起來不像是把第四季的量提前到第三季。

Yes. You've got it right, John. It was really a catch-up from the Q2 shutdown that they had. And just from an accounting perspective, when Tianqi takes more product, we end up getting that equity income immediately. So it helps -- it helped our bottom line.

是的。你說得沒錯，John。那確實是因為他們第二季停工而產生的補出貨。從會計角度來看，當天齊提取更多產品時，我們會立即確認那部分的權益法收益（equity income）。所以它有助於——也確實幫助了我們的淨利。

Your next question comes from Arun with RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Arun。

Congrats on the results. It's definitely nice to see the cost reductions playing out. I just wanted to ask about the contracting side on lithium. I think you had offered concessions to some of your customers this year in 2020. Did you find the need to extend those concessions into 2021? Could you just maybe comment on the contracting environment out there?

恭喜這次的結果。看到成本削減開始反映出來確實令人欣慰。我想問一下鋰產品的合約面。我記得你們在 2020 年對部分客戶提供了讓步。你們是否發現需要把這些讓步延伸到 2021 年？能否請你們評論一下目前的簽約環境？

So we've -- well we're in the process of having those discussions with our customers. So that -- I mean you're right, we made concessions late '19 for the 2020 period. They were 1 year concessions. Market price is lower than it was at the time we made those concessions today. And so we're -- but we're having discussions about what that -- those contracts will look like for 2021 at the moment. And it's too early to kind of -- to give any too much guidance on exactly what that looks like because we're having those discussions today.

我們——嗯，我們正在與客戶進行這些討論。所以——你的說法沒錯，我們在 2019 年底針對 2020 期間做了讓步。那些是為期 1 年的讓步。目前的市場價格比我們當時做出讓步時更低。因此我們——但我們正在討論 2021 年的合約會長什麼樣子。而且現在要——要對具體會是什麼樣子給出太多指引還太早，因為我們今天仍在進行這些討論。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then I guess on that note, I imagine that you may be extending or rolling over maybe 3-year contracts that you signed up in '16 or '17. Is that going on? When do you expect to do that? And I guess would you expect to revert to the prior price umbrella on those contracts? Or is there potential for those negotiations to result in pricing closer to market levels at this point?

好的。謝謝你的說明。那接著，我想你們可能會延長或續約一些在 2016 或 2017 年簽的三年期合約。這件事正在發生嗎？你們預期何時會做？另外，你們是否預期這些合約會回到先前的價格上限（price umbrella）機制？或者在目前這個時間點，談判是否可能導致定價更接近市場水準？

Eric, you want to talk a little bit about the contracting strategy?

Eric，你要不要談一下我們的簽約策略？

Sure. So to answer that first part of that question, Arun, we don't have any contracts. Any major battery-grade contracts will turn over next year. It's not for the following in 2022 but we have one that does turn over.

當然。Arun，先回答你問題的第一部分，我們沒有任何合約——任何主要的電池級合約會在明年到期／換約。不是在後一年 2022，但我們確實有一份會到期。

That being said, it might be worthwhile to discuss what we're trying to do, right, and -- with our contracts. So just as a recollection, what we shared in the past, we're moving from what previously was a singular fixed-price contract for all customers to a more segmented approach and really putting that into -- I would put it simply into 3 buckets. One is there'll be a group of customers that as we talk in the future with them -- and we've actually had some new customers come in so we have some brand-new LTAs. One we've signed during the quarter. That is prospectively for the Kemerton volumes when they come online. So that first category are people that really want very little volatility in their price and are -- will -- and as a result, we are looking at or negotiating a fixed price with them that's well above current prices and favorable investment economics for us.

話雖如此，或許值得談談我們想做什麼，對吧，以及——我們對合約的規劃。簡單回顧一下我們過去分享的內容：我們正從先前對所有客戶採用單一固定價格合約，轉向更分眾的做法；我會把它簡化為三個類別。第一類是有一群客戶，當我們未來與他們洽談時——而且我們其實也有一些新客戶加入，所以我們有一些全新的長期協議（LTA）。其中一份是在本季簽署的。那份是針對 Kemerton 產量上線後的供貨量。所以第一類是那些希望價格波動非常小的客戶——因此，我們會與他們評估或協商一個固定價格，該價格會明顯高於目前價格，並且對我們而言具備有利的投資經濟性。

There's a second category that may want to have a little bit more volatility but not quite so much. They don't want to have a nosebleed price when the market recovers and we're insisting on the floor so that we have -- we can earn favorable reinvestment economics over that pricing cycle. So that's that second category.

還有第二類客戶，可能希望承受稍微多一點的波動，但又不想要那麼大。他們不希望在市場復甦時面臨高得離譜的價格，而我們堅持設定底價，這樣我們才能在該定價週期中獲得有利的再投資經濟性。所以這就是第二類。

And then the third, it will be price buyers. Now our aim and the way this is shaping up is that we expect about -- once we have moved from this old contract structure to the new, and this price concession we gave this year is that bridging between the 2 contract structures -- is having about 20% in that price bucket and about 80% in the first 2 buckets. And it's that 80% that drive our capacity expansion.

然後第三類會是價格買方。目前我們的目標以及事情的發展方向是：一旦我們從舊的合約結構轉到新的結構，而我們今年給出的這個價格讓步是用來銜接兩種合約結構——我們預期大約有20%會落在那個價格區間，而約80%會在前兩個區間。而正是那80%推動了我們的產能擴張。

What they commit to us through these long-term contracts is the basis for our adding capacity over time and any excess is what we would then sell into the price market. So we don't build for that price market and we don't commit very long to that price market. That's the strategy.

他們透過這些長期合約對我們所做的承諾，是我們隨時間增加產能的基礎；任何超出部分，則是我們之後會賣到價格市場的量。因此我們不會為了那個價格市場去建產能，也不會在那個價格市場上做很長期的承諾。這就是策略。

And where we are today, quite encouraging, we're starting to see with -- as the second 6 months of the year has come about, and you're looking now at 2021 has a very strong, we believe, demand curve associated with it. We're starting to see that already in Europe. We're already 15% up year-to-date. With that -- with those positive signals coming through the channel, we're seeing more and more customers coming to us and wanting to talk with us about long-term contracts that have favorable reinvestment economics to us or transitioning their existing legacy contracts to that new structure I just described in a way that allows favorable reinvestment economics for us. And that is absolutely paramount because I think a lot of the -- the rest of the industry that's still buying on price is not appreciating the fact that the current price is no one's going to expand. And there isn't going to be sufficient lithium for them.

而以我們今天所處的位置來看，相當令人鼓舞的是——隨著今年下半年到來，現在你看到我們認為2021年會有一條非常強勁的需求曲線。我們在歐洲已經開始看到這種情況。我們年初至今已經成長15%。隨著這些正面訊號透過通路傳來，我們看到越來越多客戶來找我們，想和我們討論對我們具有有利再投資經濟性的長期合約，或是把他們既有的傳統舊合約轉換到我剛描述的新結構，以一種能讓我們具備有利再投資經濟性的方式來進行。而這點至關重要，因為我認為產業中仍以價格採購的其他公司，並沒有意識到在目前的價格水準下，沒有人會擴產。而他們將不會有足夠的鋰可用。

And so having more and more customers, including automotive OEMs, become aware of the need for reinvestment economics on behalf of the lithium supply industry is starting to turn the tide. 2021 will be -- because of the pandemic, it's going to be a bit of a transitional year. We're still working through that. That's why there's some uncertainty. And of course, we talked about the weakness already in carbonate. But maybe that's helpful additional context to your question, Arun.

因此，越來越多客戶（包括汽車OEM）開始意識到鋰供應產業需要具備再投資經濟性，這正在扭轉局勢。2021年將會——因為疫情——是一個有點過渡性的年度。我們仍在消化這些影響。這也是為什麼會有一些不確定性。當然，我們也談過碳酸鋰已經出現的疲弱。但也許這些補充背景能對你的問題有所幫助，Arun。

Your next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自Jefferies的Laurence Alexander。

Could you give a sense for your current thinking around inventory management? How much of an inventory build you need to do next year to prepare for the growth curve you expect in 2022 to 2023?

能否談談你們目前對庫存管理的想法？為了因應你們預期在2022到2023年的成長曲線，明年需要建立多少庫存？

Okay. So I'm assuming you're talking about lithium. So we've been -- that's where all the inventory questions come from. I want to qualify that. So next year, I mean, we -- I mean inventory is probably in the channel. We don't think it really changed much from what we said in the last quarter. And we're saying demand has picked up and it feels better but we don't have data to say that inventory is any less than it was last quarter. So that still has to be worked off.

好的。我假設你指的是鋰。因為所有關於庫存的問題都來自那裡。我想先說明這點。所以明年，我的意思是——庫存可能是在通路端。我們認為它並沒有比我們上季所說的有太大變化。我們說需求已經回升、感覺更好，但我們沒有數據能證明庫存比上季更少。所以那部分仍需要去化。

But given the demand profile we see in 2021 and our limited capacity, we kind of -- we don't expect to build inventories there. We would expect actually to be -- we'll work those down and then be working off of what we would consider is kind of standard inventory in the channel. So we don't see it building, at least from our perspective, through 2021. We see us working inventories off.

但考量我們在2021年看到的需求輪廓以及我們有限的產能，我們大致上——不預期會在那裡建立庫存。我們反而預期會——把那些庫存降下來，然後回到我們認為通路端屬於標準水位的庫存。因此至少從我們的角度來看，2021年不會看到庫存增加。我們會看到我們在去化庫存。

And then can you -- and then for bromine, given the trends in the end markets, what negative factors do you see keeping the bromine improvement next year at fairly modest?

那麼——另外就溴素而言，考量終端市場的趨勢，你看到哪些負面因素會使得明年溴素的改善仍相對溫和？

Netha, you want to make a few comments on that?

Netha，你要不要對此補充幾點？

Sure. Laurence, this is Netha. I think that the biggest impact for us is the overall macro economy. We tend to be driven by global GDP. So that's really the limiting factor for us is how fast this thing is going to come back and is it going to come back in a stable, consistent way? Or is it going to be lumpy? And right now, it's just a little bit unclear how that recovery is going to take place across the globe in 2021.

當然。Laurence，我是Netha。我認為對我們影響最大的是整體總體經濟。我們往往是由全球GDP所驅動。所以真正限制我們的因素，是這一切會多快回來，以及它是否會以穩定、一致的方式回來？還是會呈現起伏不定？而目前，2021年全球各地的復甦將如何發生，仍有些不明朗。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital.

下一個問題來自BMO Capital的Joel Jackson。

This is Robin on for Joel. Can you provide some more order of magnitude around the guidance of the catalyst EBITDA you expect next year? Is it reasonable to be about halfway between 2020 and '22? Or is it more likely to be above or below that level? If you can just kind of walk through some of the key building blocks to get there.

我是代替Joel的Robin。你能否就你們預期明年觸媒業務EBITDA指引，提供更具體的量級概念？大約介於2020年與2022年之間的一半是否合理？還是更可能高於或低於那個水準？如果可以的話，請帶我們走一遍達成該水準的幾個關鍵構成要素。

Robin, this is Scott. Let me make a quick comment and maybe Raphael can give some additional color. It's really going to depend on refinery utilization rates as well as transportation fuel demand. And given what we're seeing in projections right now, it's likely in the bottom half of that range that you just gave versus the top half.

Robin，我是Scott。我先快速評論一下，或許Raphael可以再補充一些細節。這真的會取決於煉油廠的開工率以及運輸燃料需求。以我們目前看到的預測來看，相較於你剛才給的區間上半部，更可能落在該區間的下半部。

But maybe, Raphael, you can add some more color as to what you're seeing.

不過也許Raphael，你可以就你所看到的情況再補充一些說明。

Robin, I think that Scott characterized it correctly. But over the next 6 months, I think we'll have a much clearer picture as to what that recovery will look like. As we see demand recovery, we see margins progress at refineries, we'll have a better sense of that.

Robin，我認為Scott的描述是正確的。但在接下來6個月，我想我們會更清楚看到那個復甦會是什麼樣子。隨著我們看到需求復甦、看到煉油廠利潤率改善，我們會更有把握。

But I want to at least give you a sense, Robin, that while it's going to be a challenging 2021, better than 2020, the business is still very focused on the right steps to return to growth in the future with a focus on chemicals, with a focus on refineries east of Suez where demand continues to grow. So while we have a challenge, we also have good strategies to establish us for long-term recovery and growth.

但我至少想讓你了解，Robin，雖然2021年會很具挑戰性、會比2020年好，但這個業務仍非常專注於採取正確步驟，以在未來重回成長，重點放在化學品，並聚焦於蘇伊士運河以東、需求持續成長的煉油廠。因此，雖然我們面臨挑戰，但我們也有良好的策略，讓我們能建立長期復甦與成長的基礎。

That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, I apologize. Did I hear correctly earlier in the call that it was mentioned that lithium EBITDA will be closer to flat for next year? I assume the cost savings or lithium's portion of the cost savings is offsetting that slightly lower pricing. Is that right?

這很有幫助。另外再追問一下，抱歉。我先前在電話會議中是否聽得沒錯，有提到明年鋰業務的 EBITDA 會更接近持平？我猜成本節省或鋰業務分攤的成本節省，正在稍微抵銷較低的價格。是這樣嗎？

Yes. Robin, this is Scott. I think you have it about right. It's really a little bit early to call exactly what the number is going to be. But lithium EBITDA should be flat to maybe down a bit just given the dynamics that we're seeing.

是的。Robin，我是 Scott。我想你的理解大致正確。現在要精確判斷數字會是多少，其實還有點早。但就我們看到的動態而言，鋰業務 EBITDA 應該會持平，或可能小幅下滑。

Your next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團（Citigroup）的 P.J. Juvekar。

So it looks like you have some limited capacity growth and you might lose some share next year. Why couldn't you build inventories in 4Q here to sell so as to not to lose share? And then secondly, you -- some of your capacity is still idle like the Wodgina mine. And what does it take for you to start that back up?

看起來你們的產能成長有限，明年可能會流失一些市占。為什麼你們不能在這裡的第四季建立庫存，之後再銷售，以避免流失市占？第二，你們有些產能仍然閒置，例如 Wodgina 礦。要具備哪些條件你們才會把它重新啟動？

Kent, would you like...

Kent，你要不要……

Yes. I'll start. So first, your question about inventory. So I mean, there's a limit on inventories on hydroxide and we -- and there are a little more than normal in the channel. And we had actually shut down some facilities to manage that a little bit because there's a life on hydroxide. So you want to be careful about how you manage those inventories. So -- and we'll work through those inventories to next year. So we'll be able to probably -- we'll sell more than we'll be able to make. So we are doing that to some degree but we're limited by kind of the life of hydroxide, and that's where that extra demand comes from.

好的。我先開始。先談你關於庫存的問題。我的意思是，氫氧化鋰的庫存是有上限的，而我們——而且通路端的庫存也比正常水準略高一些。我們其實還關停了一些設施來稍微管理這件事，因為氫氧化鋰是有保存期限的。所以你必須謹慎管理這些庫存。因此——我們會把這些庫存一路消化到明年。所以我們很可能——我們的銷量會高於我們能生產的量。所以我們在某種程度上確實有這麼做，但受限於氫氧化鋰的保存期限，而額外需求也正是由此而來。

The other question on Wodgina. So our limitation is on conversion capacity, right? So Wodgina is not producing but that's because we can't -- we don't have capacity to convert that. So Kemerton brings us -- gets us going in that direction. And then we would just -- where we have to manage between Wodgina and Talison about how that -- how -- what resource we use there. So -- but we're limited more on conversion capacity. So we'd be needing to add additional conversion capacity to take full advantage of our resources.

另一個問題是關於 Wodgina。所以我們的限制在於轉換（conversion）產能，對吧？Wodgina 目前沒有生產，是因為我們無法——我們沒有產能把它轉換加工。所以 Kemerton 會讓我們——讓我們朝那個方向推進。接著我們就必須——在 Wodgina 與 Talison 之間管理——也就是——在那裡要使用哪一種資源。所以——但我們更受限的是轉換產能。因此我們需要增加額外的轉換產能，才能充分利用我們的資源。

Yes. Just to add, Kent. This year, P.J., we are selling all the hydroxide that we can make. So we are sold out this year. In fact -- and that's -- we've made the concessions we talked about on price and the leverage for that is we're getting the volumes this year as we planned. That's the reason for the upward guidance for the fourth quarter. So we're getting what we intended. And in fact, we'll be up year-over-year on volumes overall. I mean we expect the industry to be down. So this will be, in that regard, a solid year for lithium.

是的。再補充一下，Kent。P.J.，今年我們能生產多少氫氧化鋰就賣多少。所以今年我們已經全數售罄。事實上——而這——我們在價格上做了我們提到的讓步，而其帶來的槓桿效果是，我們今年如計畫取得了出貨量。這也是第四季指引上修的原因。所以我們達成了我們原本的目標。而且事實上，整體出貨量我們會年增。我的意思是，我們預期整個產業會下滑。因此就這點而言，今年對鋰業務會是相當穩健的一年。

As you go into next year, Kent hit it, conversion capacity. In fact, our ratio of mining capacity to conversion capacity, mining potential to actual conversion is about 4:1. So it's about more conversion assets. And we're being, as we talked about, in terms of managing our cash flow and managing our profitability, very disciplined about how we bring that converged capacity to market. Next year will be a flat year but we'll have significant capacity we bring on in 2022 and be in a position as we ramp those plants to recover any lost ground we have with our customers. As I earlier said, we've also started to draw up new contracts with customers before that volume in that year.

展望明年，Kent 已經點出來了：轉換產能。事實上，我們的採礦產能相對於轉換產能的比率——採礦潛力相對於實際可轉換量——大約是 4:1。所以重點在於更多的轉換資產。而且如我們所談到的，為了管理現金流並管理獲利能力，我們在把這些轉換產能推向市場的方式上非常自律。明年會是持平的一年，但我們在 2022 年會有顯著的產能投放，並且在這些工廠爬坡時，有能力彌補我們對客戶可能流失的任何份額。如我先前所說，我們也已在那一年相關的量能到位之前，開始與客戶擬定新的合約。

It's interesting. You're saying conversion capacity is the bottleneck. Maybe related to that, can you talk about what's happening to conversion capacity in China? I know they -- at some point, back in '15, '16, they were constrained that they overbuilt. Where do we stand on conversion capacity utilization in China? Can you just give us some update there? Could you -- and also could you take some of your volumes into the Chinese third-party conversion?

這很有意思。你們說轉換產能是瓶頸。也許與此相關，你能談談中國的轉換產能目前發生了什麼事嗎？我知道他們——在某個時間點，大概在 2015、2016 年，他們受限於之前過度擴建。目前中國的轉換產能利用率處於什麼狀況？你能給我們一些更新嗎？另外，你們能否把部分產量交由中國的第三方進行轉換加工？

Eric, you want to...

Eric，你要不要……

Yes. Sure. So in China, as you know, these Chinese converters, I assume you're talking not about our integrated competitors, such as Tianqi and Ganfeng and you're talking about other nonintegrated producers, those who do not own a resource. They're dependent upon economics, right? And they're net buyer of -- they have to buy their rock. Many of those mines have been curtailed, Altera being the latest victim of low market prices. They've not been able to operate so supply for rock has dried up. And they've been sustaining themselves through available inventory. That's one factor.

好的。當然。在中國，如你所知，這些中國的轉換加工商，我猜你指的不是我們的垂直整合型競爭對手，例如天齊（Tianqi）和贛鋒（Ganfeng），而是其他非整合型的生產商，也就是不擁有資源的那些。他們取決於經濟性，對吧？而且他們是淨買方——他們必須購買礦石。許多礦山已經減產，Altera 是近期低市場價格下的最新受害者。他們無法運作，因此礦石供應已經枯竭。他們一直靠可用庫存來維持。這是一個因素。

Another factor is they themselves, their current carbonate prices are breakeven at best and most are operating at a loss as we see the price in China -- spot price in China below marginal cash costs. So it's a pretty challenging economic picture for those producers.

另一個因素是，他們自身目前的碳酸鋰價格頂多打平，大多數在虧損營運，因為我們看到中國的價格——中國現貨價格——低於邊際現金成本。所以對那些生產商而言，經濟面相當具挑戰。

In a market recovery, we expect that capacity to come back. And China is going to remain a very healthy market for lithium into the future. So I think there's going to be a place for those producers.

在市場復甦時，我們預期那部分產能會回來。而中國在未來仍將是鋰非常健康的市場。所以我認為那些生產商會有其立足之地。

In terms of our going in, as you know, we're looking in terms of growing our capacity. We've talked about buying versus building capacity. We still are evaluating that approach and that remains a viable expansion route for us. That's the way we got the capacity we have today, the basis for how we got our current Chinese conversion capacity.

至於我們是否進入，如你所知，我們正以擴增產能為目標。我們談過買入（buying）與自建（building）產能的取捨。我們仍在評估該做法，而這仍是我們可行的擴張途徑。這也是我們取得現有產能的方式，是我們目前中國轉換產能得以建立的基礎。

We are less inclined, particularly for hydroxide which is the growth part of the market, where there's a lot of process know-how, quality differentiators to teach a toll producer how to do that. And that's proprietary know-how that we would be concerned we'd lose if we were to toll. So our bias would be to acquire.

我們較不傾向（採用代工），特別是對於氫氧化鋰——這是市場成長的部分——因為其中有大量製程 know-how、品質差異化，需要去教導代工生產商如何做到。而那是專有 know-how，如果我們採用代工，我們會擔心會流失。所以我們的偏好會是收購。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Mike Sison。

As I recall, you've got I think 40 million in carbonate coming on and I guess, in '22 -- and 50 million of hydroxide in '22. How much of that is already sort of contracted out? And how long do you think it'll take to sell those out?

據我記得，你們大概有 4,000 萬的碳酸鋰產能將投產，我想是在 2022 年——以及 2022 年有 5,000 萬的氫氧化鋰產能。其中有多少已經算是簽約鎖定了？你們認為要多久才能把這些產能賣完？

So your numbers are right, although they're not going to -- it's not going to turn on day 1 at those capacities, right? So there's a ramp. And our manufacturing process is to get us up to those full capacity. So they won't come on all when you just turn a switch. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.

所以你的數字是對的，但它們不會——不會在第一天就以那些產能水準開出來，對吧？所以會有一個爬坡期。而我們的製造流程是讓我們逐步提升到滿載產能。所以不會是你一按開關就全部上來。不幸的是，事情不是那樣運作的。

And Eric, you want to talk about kind of the ramp of sales versus production?

Eric，你要不要談談銷售爬坡相對於生產爬坡的情況？

Yes. So we're -- I mentioned earlier, Mike, that we are on the -- particularly on the hydroxide side, which is a tighter market, we are entertaining -- first of all, we already had long-term contracts -- legacy long-term contracts that had earmarks, if you will, against that capacity when it came on. And now we are having additional contracts. We signed one recently, as I said, during the quarter, to increase that utilization of that plant. And we're in negotiation with still others. I don't think I'm -- we're at liberty yet to share the details of exactly how much, but I would say a significant portion of the converged capacity is well assured from a sales standpoint.

好的。Mike，我先前提到過——特別是在氫氧化鋰這一端，市場更吃緊——我們正在評估（洽談）……首先，我們已經有長期合約——既有的長期合約——可以說在那個產能投產時就已經對應、預留了部分產能。而現在我們也在洽談額外的合約。如我所說，我們最近在本季度內簽了一份合約，以提高該工廠的稼動率。我們也仍在與其他客戶談判中。我想我們——目前還不便分享確切的數量細節，但我會說，從銷售角度來看，整合後產能中相當大的一部分已有相當把握。

On the carbonate side, a little different. Most of the carbonate market is increasingly in China. As you know, the China market is a much shorter-term contracting market. We have been very diligent to maintain relationships with our existing capacity out of La Negra I and II, relationships and ongoing volume relationships or sales to a number of leading Chinese producers with whom we are talking about growing our business. We are talking with them about committed volumes.

在碳酸鋰這一端則有些不同。大部分碳酸鋰市場正日益集中在中國。如你所知，中國市場的合約通常是更短期的。我們一直非常努力維持來自 La Negra I 與 II 既有產能的客戶關係，以及與多家中國領先生產商的持續供貨/銷售量關係；我們也正與他們討論擴大業務。我們正在與他們討論承諾採購量。

The nature of contracting though is different with those. So it's going to be a little different with carbonate in terms of we'll be closer to bringing that to market before we have firm prices with -- for that volume. Though remember that we're at the low on the cost curve, so it's still very attractive business, notwithstanding the fact that it won't have some of the same long duration contracts that we see on the Kemerton side.

不過，這類合約的性質不同。因此，就碳酸鋰而言，在我們取得該等數量的確定價格之前，可能會更接近把產品推向市場的時間點。但請記得，我們位於成本曲線的低端，所以即便不像我們在 Kemerton 端看到的那種長年期合約，它仍然是非常有吸引力的生意。

Right. Great. And then a quick one on catalyst. Any thoughts on pricing for FCC heading into '21?

了解。很好。另外快速問一下催化劑。對於 2021 年 FCC 的定價，你們有什麼看法？

Raphael, you want to comment?

Raphael，你要不要評論一下？

Sure. Mike, this is Raphael. I think pricing in FCC has been challenged in 2020 for noncontract volumes. So sort of nonspecialty, noncontract volumes have been under the most pressure in response to decisions by refinery to look for perhaps less specialty catalyst in order to help their near-term economic pain. Going into 2021, I think that the trend would continue. I mean I think we'll continue to see pressure on noncontracted volumes. But where we create a differential value, mainly in areas like high propylene yield, I think we'll continue to hold on to price and remain strong in that area.

當然。Mike，我是 Raphael。我認為 2020 年 FCC 的定價在非合約量方面面臨挑戰。因此，某種程度上，非特殊品、非合約量承受了最大的壓力，因為煉油廠為了緩解短期的經濟壓力，可能會決定尋找較不「特殊」的催化劑。展望 2021 年，我認為這個趨勢會延續。也就是說，我們會持續看到非簽約量的價格壓力。但在我們能創造差異化價值的地方——主要是在高丙烯收率等領域——我認為我們仍能守住價格，並在該領域維持強勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

So sort of a follow-up on Eric's comprehensive comments about the shifting approach to the contracts. And really, I guess, against the context of some of the anecdotal commentary about hydroxide versus carbonate, it seems like the oversupply is still a little more acute in carbonate versus hydroxide. So -- and then you obviously have this tension about some customers wanting near-term pricing relief and others maybe more focused on concerns about longer-term supply. I'm wondering if those conversations reflect this bifurcation hydroxide versus carbonate. And if you could take another -- a little bit further, is it -- as this plays out, is it more likely in the context of those buckets that you described, Eric? More likely that the hydroxide guys are going to fall in this bucket where they want fixed prices, security of supply and the carbonate customers are more likely to be willing to place some of the volatility?

我想就 Eric 對合約策略轉變的完整評論做個追問。而且在一些關於氫氧化鋰相對於碳酸鋰的軼聞式評論背景下，看起來碳酸鋰的供過於求仍比氫氧化鋰更為明顯。所以——你們顯然也面臨一些拉扯：有些客戶希望短期價格紓困，另一些則可能更關注長期供應的疑慮。我想知道，這些對話是否反映出氫氧化鋰與碳酸鋰之間的分化。如果可以再往前一步，當這些情況發展時，是否更可能落在你描述的那些「類別」裡，Eric？也就是說，氫氧化鋰客戶更可能落在想要固定價格、供應安全的那一類，而碳酸鋰客戶更可能願意承擔一些波動？

Sure. Any advance comments, Kent, before I dive in?

好的。Kent，在我深入回答之前，你有沒有要先補充的？

No. Go ahead.

沒有。你繼續。

Okay. So I think the reflection of what everything I've described and you asked, Chris, is both -- there is a difference between carbonate and hydroxide. More of the carbonate market going forward will be in China. And to date, I don't see the same approach to security of supply in terms of contracting with us or with anybody for that volume, rather I see that the market tends to be content to go for short duration on the bet that resources will continue to come online, converged capacity continue to come online and there'll be sufficient capacity.

好。Chris，我認為你問的、以及我所描述的一切，反映出兩點——碳酸鋰與氫氧化鋰之間確實有差異。未來更多的碳酸鋰市場會在中國。而截至目前，我沒有看到市場在供應安全方面採取同樣的做法，也就是不論是與我們或與任何人，針對那部分數量去簽長約；相反地，我看到市場傾向於滿足於短期合約，因為他們押注資源會持續上線、整合後產能會持續上線，並且會有足夠的產能。

And there's also a bifurcation but based on who's buying, right? More of the purchasing decision is moving closer to the point of use. So it's going to be the battery producers and the automotive producers. And they, given the investments that they are making in the right to supply chain, whether it be carbonate or hydroxide, tend to want longer -- the surety that they're going to have it because of the size of investments they're making. Not everybody is doing that, but increasingly, more are and more are becoming, I think, appropriately aware of the need to do that. So it's also who we're contracting with, and in these long-term contracts, that plays a factor in that.

而且也存在另一種分化，取決於是誰在買，對吧？更多的採購決策正往更接近使用端的地方移動。所以會是電池製造商與汽車製造商。而他們考量到自己在供應鏈上的投資規模——不論是碳酸鋰或氫氧化鋰——往往會希望更長期的……也就是確保他們能取得供應，因為他們投入的資本很大。不是每個人都這麼做，但越來越多人在做，而且我認為他們也越來越（且是合理地）意識到這麼做的必要性。所以這也與我們是跟誰簽約有關，而在這些長期合約中，這會成為一個影響因素。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, you've -- I think it was the last quarter where you characterized the inventories that you saw in the supply chain. Any update on that? And also, just any changes to the time line on the idling of your hydroxide conversion facility in North America?

了解。再追問一下，你們——我想是上個季度——曾描述你們在供應鏈中看到的庫存狀況。這方面有沒有更新？另外，關於你們在北美的氫氧化鋰轉換工廠停產（閒置）的時間表，有沒有任何變動？

Yes. So we have -- so first of all, I'll just reiterate what Kent said. Look, it is imperfectly the signs of assessing how much inventories in the channel. We can survey our customers and we do. And that gives us a basis for understanding that. We obviously don't know what our competition holds, and they -- and some have held quite a bit.

有的。所以我們——首先我再重申 Kent 說的。你看，要評估通路裡到底有多少庫存，訊號並不完美。我們可以對客戶做調查，我們也確實有做。這讓我們有一個基礎去理解相關情況。但我們顯然不知道競爭對手手上持有多少庫存，而他們——其中一些確實持有了相當多。

If we look at the things net-net, the overall monthly inventory in the channel is still about the same as it was 3 months ago, 5 months of excess, roughly speaking. Though I think that has shifted. There's probably more carbonate than hydroxide now. So carbonate has built up a bit, and hydroxide has drawn down a bit.

如果我們從整體來看，通路中的整體月度庫存大致仍與3個月前相同，粗略而言約有5個月的過剩庫存。不過我認為結構已經有所轉移。現在碳酸鋰可能比氫氧化鋰更多。因此碳酸鋰的庫存累積了一些，而氫氧化鋰的庫存則消化了一些。

Again, we are probably wrong about that but directionally correct. It doesn't feel that different. It's a little bit better because I think it's the pull on hydroxide but not too different.

同樣地，我們對此可能判斷有誤，但方向上應該是對的。感覺並沒有太大的不同。因為我認為氫氧化鋰的拉動需求，情況稍微好一些，但差異不算太大。

I'm sorry, then you had a second part of your question, Chris?

抱歉，Chris，你的問題還有第二部分對嗎？

Just the time line of your idling of your hydroxide conversion.

就是你們讓氫氧化鋰轉換產能停工的時間表。

Yes. We have -- we are in the process of restarting the Kings Mountain hydroxide facility now. Employees are returning. That's sooner than we thought and that's based upon the improvement we're seeing for demand next year and some of the earlier questions around, can you please try to get more volume next year? So we're ramping that plant but it's a small plant, so it has a very small impact to the overall volume growth but we're starting that up. And Silver Peak, which is the feedstock plant that feeds that hydroxide plant with the carbonate feedstock, will restart on schedule beginning of the year of 2021.

是的。我們——目前正在重啟Kings Mountain的氫氧化鋰工廠。員工正在返回。這比我們原先預期更早，主要是基於我們看到明年需求的改善，以及先前一些問題提到「你們能否在明年盡量提供更多產量？」。因此我們正在讓該廠逐步爬坡，但它是一座小型工廠，所以對整體產量成長的影響非常有限，不過我們正在啟動它。而Silver Peak作為供料工廠，為該氫氧化鋰工廠提供碳酸鋰原料，將按計畫於2021年年初重啟。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自Oppenheimer的Colin Rusch。

Can you give us a sense of how mature the conversations are on the financing side? It sounds like things are going pretty well and there's some pretty meaningful opportunities to reduce your cost of capital going forward. But just curious how far down the road you are with that.

你能否讓我們了解一下在融資方面的對話成熟度到什麼程度？聽起來進展相當順利，而且未來有一些相當有意義的機會可以降低你們的資本成本。但我只是好奇你們目前推進到什麼階段了。

Yes. No, we're well advanced in those discussions. So we feel comfortable about where we're headed.

是的。不，我們在這些討論上已經推進得很深入了。所以我們對目前前進的方向感到放心。

Excellent. And then I think the lithium market has been pretty well belabored, but I'm just curious if you're seeing any consolidation in terms of battery OEMs given where we're seeing capacity additions. It looks like there's going to be a handful of folks that really stride out here. And if there's any consolidation kind of below that with some of the cathode producers as you look out over the next 3 to 5 years.

很好。接著我想鋰市場已經被討論得很多了，但我只是好奇，鑑於我們看到的產能擴增，你們是否看到電池OEM在某種程度上的整併？看起來會有少數幾家真正脫穎而出。以及在未來3到5年，是否會在其下游的部分、例如一些正極材料（cathode）製造商出現某種整併。

Eric?

Eric？

Kent? Yes. Sure. Thanks, Kent. So on the battery OEMs, I don't -- be interested to see what you see, Colin, because we don't see that. In fact, we've seen the opposite. We've seen new players come into the market, not very recently, but companies like Northvolt come into the market for Europe. And many other multinationals who have played around this space in the past I think are looking to come in to support the growth of the European market.

Kent？是的。當然。謝謝你，Kent。關於電池OEM，我——我很想聽聽你看到什麼，Colin，因為我們沒有看到那樣的情況。事實上，我們看到的是相反的趨勢。我們看到新玩家進入市場，雖然不是非常近期，但像Northvolt這樣的公司進入歐洲市場。以及許多其他過去曾在這個領域有所涉足的跨國企業，我認為也在尋求進入，以支持歐洲市場的成長。

So I see more players coming into the market on the battery side, not less. And some of that's being supported and driven by the automotive OEMs. So I think want more -- they want some negotiating leverage, right? They want some more options or they want more localized options for -- in the case of Europe.

所以我看到的是電池端有更多玩家進入市場，而不是更少。其中一部分是由汽車OEM所支持並推動的。因此我認為他們想要更多——他們想要一些議價籌碼，對吧？他們想要更多選擇，或是想要更在地化的選擇——以歐洲為例。

On the cathode side, it is constantly changing, right? This is the part of the market that has, as I said, is not necessarily as directly involved in the purchasing decision as much anymore. It's being told what to make either by the automotive OEM or the battery maker, so they're losing some of their power in the decision channel. And so I do expect some change and consolidation. I can't point to any obvious ones now, but there's disruption. There's people gaining share and losing share. And so I think we'll continue to see evolution in that part of the channel. And also some battery integration, right? You have some battery makers now building their own in-house cathode capabilities.

至於正極材料端，它一直在變化，對吧？如我所說，這是市場中一個部分，現在不一定像以前那樣直接參與採購決策。他們被汽車OEM或電池製造商告知要做什麼，因此在決策鏈中的影響力正在下降。因此我確實預期會出現一些變化與整併。我目前無法指出任何明顯的案例，但確實存在擾動。有人在提升市占，也有人在流失市占。所以我認為我們會持續看到該通路環節的演進。另外也會有一些電池垂直整合，對吧？你會看到一些電池製造商現在正在建立自有的正極材料能力。

At this time, we have no further questions. I will now turn the conference back over to Ms. Bandy.

目前我們沒有其他問題。我現在把會議交回給Bandy女士。

All right. Thank you all for your questions and your participation in today's conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Albemarle and this concludes our earnings conference call.

好的。感謝各位在今天的電話會議中提問並參與。一如既往，我們感謝各位對Albemarle的關注，以上結束我們的財報電話會議。

This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。