雅保公司 (ALB) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Albemarle Corporation Q4 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候，歡迎參加 Albemarle Corporation 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Meredith Bandy, VP of Investor Relations and Sustainability. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我想把會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係與永續發展副總裁 Meredith Bandy。女士，請開始。

All right. Thank you, Joelle, and welcome to Albemarle's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings were released after the close of the market yesterday, and you'll find the materials posted to our website under the Investor Relations section at albemarle.com.

好的。謝謝你，Joelle，並歡迎參加 Albemarle 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。我們的財報已於昨日收盤後發布，您可在 albemarle.com 網站「投資人關係」專區找到相關資料。

Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer; Raphael Crawford, President, Catalysts; Netha Johnson, President, Bromine; and Eric Norris, President, Lithium, are also available for Q&A.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：執行長 Kent Masters；財務長 Scott Tozier；另外，催化劑事業群總裁 Raphael Crawford、溴素事業群總裁 Netha Johnson，以及鋰事業群總裁 Eric Norris 也將出席問答環節。

As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including our outlook, expected company performance, expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and proposed expansion projects may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws.

提醒各位，本次電話會議中所作的部分陳述，包括我們的展望、預期公司表現、COVID-19 疫情的預期影響，以及擬議的擴產專案，可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release. That same language applies to this call. Please also note that some of the comments today refer to financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation to these measures to GAAP can be found in our earnings release and the appendix of our earnings presentation, both of which are posted to the website.

請留意我們新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的警示性語言；同樣的語言亦適用於本次電話會議。另請注意，今天部分評論提及的財務衡量指標並非依 GAAP 編製。這些指標與 GAAP 之間的調節表可在我們的財報新聞稿及財報簡報附錄中找到，兩者皆已發布於公司網站。

And now I'll turn the call over to Kent.

接下來我把電話交給 Kent。

Thanks, Meredith. And thank you all for joining us today. On today's call, I will highlight recent accomplishments and discuss our strategy to capitalize on the very attractive long-term growth trends we see for our businesses. Scott will give more detail on our results, outlook and capital allocation.

謝謝你，Meredith。也感謝各位今天加入我們。在今天的電話會議中，我將重點說明近期成果，並討論我們如何把握我們所見到、對各項業務極具吸引力的長期成長趨勢之策略。Scott 將更詳細說明我們的業績、展望與資本配置。

I'm pleased to say that Albemarle reported solid fourth quarter results, including net sales of $879 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $221 million, both of which were at or above the high end of our previous outlook. I'm also encouraged by the rebound we began to see in the second half of the year, particularly for bromine and lithium. We expect to generate full year 2021 net sales of between $3.2 billion and $3.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of between $810 million and $860 million, both up from 2020 results. As I'm sure you're aware, earlier this month, we completed a $1.5 billion capital raise. The proceeds of this offering provide the financial flexibility to execute our long-term strategy, including the acceleration of high-return growth projects.

我很高興地表示，Albemarle 第四季交出穩健的業績，包括淨銷售額 8.79 億美元，以及調整後 EBITDA 2.21 億美元，兩者皆達到或高於我們先前展望區間的上緣。我也對我們在下半年開始看到的復甦感到鼓舞，尤其是在溴素與鋰業務方面。我們預期 2021 全年淨銷售額介於 32 億至 33 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 介於 8.10 億至 8.60 億美元之間，均較 2020 年成績成長。如各位所知，本月稍早我們完成了 15 億美元的募資。此次發行的資金使我們具備執行長期策略的財務彈性，包括加速高報酬的成長專案。

Now if we turn to Slide 5. We have a clear strategy to drive sustainable value for our shareholders. Albemarle has 4 primary strategic objectives: first, we will grow profitably. We have identified and planned a portfolio of low capital intensity, high-return projects. These projects lever our diverse world-class resources in both lithium and bromine. Over the past 5 years, we have built the internal team and capabilities to execute these projects on time and on budget. In addition, we have the long-term commercial relationships with customers that are required for these projects. We are working to ensure that we are aligning with their strategic requirements while achieving adequate returns for our shareholders. Of course, the majority of our growth will be in lithium, but at the same time, we will be investing in our bromine projects. This will include highly efficient brownfield projects with attractive returns and short paybacks. I'm sure Netha would be happy to give you more detail when we get to Q&A.

現在請看第 5 張投影片。我們有一套清晰的策略，為股東創造可持續的價值。Albemarle 有 4 項主要策略目標：第一，我們將以獲利方式成長。我們已辨識並規劃一組資本強度低、報酬率高的專案組合。這些專案運用我們在鋰與溴素方面多元且世界級的資源。過去 5 年，我們建立了內部團隊與能力，以按時、按預算執行這些專案。此外，我們也具備這些專案所需的長期客戶商業關係。我們正努力確保在符合客戶策略需求的同時，亦能為股東取得足夠的報酬。當然，我們的成長大多將來自鋰業務，但同時我們也會投資溴素專案，其中包括效率極高、具吸引力報酬與短回收期的棕地（brownfield）專案。我相信在問答環節時，Netha 會很樂意提供更多細節。

Second, we will maximize productivity. Over the past year, we have optimized earnings and cash flow generation across our business, including our very successful sustainable cost savings program. Operational discipline is essential for generating cash flow and supporting growth, and we will not take our eyes off the ball even as we move into an accelerated growth phase.

第二，我們將把生產力最大化。過去一年，我們在各項業務中優化獲利與現金流創造能力，包括我們非常成功的永續成本節省計畫。營運紀律對於創造現金流並支持成長至關重要，即使我們進入加速成長階段，也不會掉以輕心。

Third, we will invest with discipline, focusing our capital investments on our highest return opportunities. Just as we have in the past, we will actively assess our portfolio for opportunities to unlock shareholder value. We will also continue to maintain our investment-grade credit rating and support our dividend.

第三，我們將以紀律投資，把資本支出聚焦於最高報酬的機會。正如過去所做的，我們將主動檢視投資組合，尋找釋放股東價值的機會。我們也將持續維持投資級信用評等並支持股利政策。

Fourth and finally, we will advance sustainability across our businesses, which is a core value for Albemarle. Our aim is to increase sustainability throughout the value chain from the resource to the end-use of our products. Most recognizably, we developed lithium products that enable the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the adoption of battery electric vehicles. Our Catalyst business contributes to sustainability by helping refiners produce cleaner transportation fuels, and our bromine products contribute to consumer safety by preventing fires in electronic equipment. With continued regulatory changes, advancements in technology and investments in infrastructure like charging stations, the current environment is ideal for a step change in EV adoption. We are seeing this play out in the acceleration of global EV sales led by rebounding demand in China and new demand in Europe. Global EV sales increased 45% during 2020 and are expected to increase by over 70% in 2021.

第四也是最後，我們將在各項業務中推進永續發展，這是 Albemarle 的核心價值。我們的目標是在從資源端到產品終端用途的整個價值鏈中提升永續性。最廣為人知的是，我們開發的鋰產品可透過採用純電動車（BEV）來降低溫室氣體排放。我們的催化劑業務透過協助煉油業者生產更潔淨的運輸燃料來促進永續；而我們的溴素產品則透過防止電子設備起火來提升消費者安全。隨著法規持續變動、技術進步，以及如充電站等基礎設施投資增加，目前的環境非常適合電動車採用率出現躍升。我們看到這一點正反映在全球電動車銷售加速上，主要由中國需求回升以及歐洲新增需求所帶動。2020 年全球電動車銷售成長 45%，預期 2021 年將成長超過 70%。

On the right-hand side of the slide, you see demand projections for lithium over the next 5 to 10 years. Based on our internal estimates, we believe demand will reach more than 1.1 million tons by 2025, up from around 300,000 tons today. This is slightly higher than third-party projections from industry analysts like Benchmark Minerals, Roskill and the CRU Group. But as you can see, the consensus is that the industry expects to see significant growth in the coming years. As the industry leader in lithium, Albemarle is able to take these external estimates, internal forecast and discussions with our strategic customers and suppliers to generate a detailed demand forecast.

在投影片右側，您可看到未來 5 到 10 年鋰需求的預測。根據我們的內部估算，我們認為到 2025 年需求將達到超過 110 萬噸，高於目前約 30 萬噸。這一數字略高於 Benchmark Minerals、Roskill 與 CRU Group 等產業分析機構的第三方預測。但如您所見，市場共識是產業預期未來幾年將出現顯著成長。作為鋰產業的領導者，Albemarle 能夠結合外部估算、內部預測，以及與策略性客戶與供應商的討論，形成一份細緻的需求預測。

On Slide 7, you see other metrics we use to gauge the future of the lithium market. While Albemarle's demand outlook for lithium is above third-party estimates, our outlook is below some of the more ambitious targets from automotive OEMs. For example, Tesla's vision of 3 terawatt hours of battery production by 2030 would translate to roughly 2.3 million tons of lithium. That means that Tesla's demand alone would exceed estimates for the entire market. Additional regulatory impacts, for example, if the U.S. decides to adopt more European like EV incentives would be incremental to our estimates. Total lithium demand is expected to grow by about 30% per year from 2020 to 2025, led by lithium consumption electric vehicles, which is expected to grow by 47% per year. 2 other trends support lithium demand, increased adoption of battery electric vehicles and larger battery size. Battery electric vehicles and larger battery size improved the consumer experience with longer driving ranges and innovation in batteries is also driving shorter charging times.

在第 7 張投影片中，您可看到我們用來衡量鋰市場未來的其他指標。雖然 Albemarle 對鋰的需求展望高於第三方估算，但我們的展望低於部分汽車 OEM 更為積極的目標。例如，Tesla 對 2030 年電池產量達 3 太瓦時（TWh）的願景，換算約需要 230 萬噸鋰。這表示僅 Tesla 的需求就可能超過整體市場的估算。額外的法規影響亦可能使我們的估算上修，例如若美國決定採用更接近歐洲的電動車補貼激勵政策，將對我們的估算形成增量。預期 2020 至 2025 年鋰總需求將以約每年 30% 的速度成長，其中以電動車用鋰的消耗量為主要動能，預期每年成長 47%。另外兩項趨勢也支撐鋰需求：純電動車採用率提高，以及電池容量變大。純電動車與更大電池容量透過更長續航里程改善消費者體驗，而電池創新也正推動更短的充電時間。

It's important to note that this outlook does not assume a major shift in battery technologies over the next 5 years. Advanced battery technologies like solid-state batteries could potentially increase lithium intensity later this decade. Since 2015, we've nearly tripled our nameplate conversion capacity to 85,000 tons per year. Later this year, we expect to complete 2 major projects, which we refer to as Wave II. Wave II consists of our La Negra III and IV project and Kemerton I and II projects, which will more than double our current capacity to 175,000 tons per year. Over the last 5 years, we engaged with our customers with long-term volume commitments to execute this portfolio of projects. Now with this new acceleration in demand, customers are asking us to repeat the model. Our next 2 waves of expansion could once again more than double our nameplate capacity. With lower capital intensity, we expect these projects to generate very attractive returns. The identified and planned Wave III projects would add 150,000 tons of annual capacity over the next 3 to 5 years. And this third wave includes a conversion plant in China, which would be part of our MARBL joint venture. A smaller expansion at our Silver Peak asset in Nevada, another plant in China on a new mega site and Kemerton III and IV, a brownfield project in Australia.

需要強調的是，這份展望並未假設未來 5 年電池技術會出現重大轉變。固態電池等先進電池技術在本十年稍晚可能提高單位電池所需的鋰用量。自 2015 年以來，我們的名目（nameplate）轉換產能幾乎增加至三倍，達到每年 85,000 噸。今年稍晚，我們預期完成 2 項重大專案，我們稱之為第二波（Wave II）。Wave II 包含我們的 La Negra III 與 IV 專案，以及 Kemerton I 與 II 專案，將使目前產能倍增以上，達到每年 175,000 噸。過去 5 年，我們與客戶以長期量的承諾合作，以執行這一組專案組合。如今隨著需求再度加速，客戶正要求我們複製這個模式。我們接下來兩波擴產也可能再次使名目產能倍增以上。由於資本強度較低，我們預期這些專案將帶來非常具吸引力的報酬。已辨識並規劃的第三波（Wave III）專案，將在未來 3 到 5 年新增每年 150,000 噸產能。而第三波也包括位於中國的一座轉換工廠，將成為我們 MARBL 合資企業的一部分；另包括位於內華達州的 Silver Peak 資產的小型擴產、在中國新大型基地（mega site）的另一座工廠，以及澳洲的 Kemerton III 與 IV（棕地）專案。

We also have identified opportunities for a fourth wave of projects. These could include further expansions in Australia, China and Southeast Asia and the potential to restart the mine and expand our conversion facility at Kings Mountain in North Carolina. Wave IV also includes options to support customers looking to localize supply, for example, by converting carbonate to hydroxide near battery manufacturer.

我們也已辨識出第四波專案的機會。這些可能包括在澳洲、中國及東南亞的進一步擴產，以及在北卡羅來納州金斯山（Kings Mountain）重啟礦山並擴建我們的轉換設施的潛在可能性。第四波也包含支援希望在地化供應的客戶之選項，例如在電池製造商附近將碳酸鋰轉換為氫氧化鋰。

And before we continue, let me update you on our Wave II projects. So La Negra III and IV enables us to add lithium carbonate capacity at the very low end of the cost curve. The project remains on track for mechanical completion in mid-2021. Kemerton I and II, our new lithium hydroxide conversion plant in Western Australia is on track to reach mechanical completion late in 2021. Kemerton is core to our hydroxide capacity in line with expected strong long-term market demand. Both of these projects will add significant commercial lithium sales beginning in 2022, following commissioning and customer qualification processes. As we move from Wave II to Wave III projects and beyond, we expect an estimated 40% reduction in capital intensity to support compelling economic returns. We can achieve these capital efficiencies and returns for 3 key reasons. First, we were able to leverage our experience in project execution by building standardized plants with economies of scale. For example, we expect new hydroxide plant would be a standard 2 trains or 50,000 tons per year, similar to what we are building at Kemerton today. Second, in many cases, we're moving from greenfield to brownfield economics. Just as today, we're moving from La Negra I and II to La Negra III and IV. Likewise, we'll move from Kemerton I and II to Kemerton III and IV and so on. As with Kemerton, the focus will be on building what we call mega sites. Standardized large-scale plants able to support multiple trains for lithium conversion. Finally, we'll be buying or building additional facilities in low-cost jurisdictions. As we did when we successfully acquired and then expanded our Xinyu facility in China in 2016.

在我們繼續之前，先向各位更新第二波（Wave II）專案的進展。La Negra III 與 IV 使我們能在成本曲線的極低端新增碳酸鋰產能。該專案仍按計畫於 2021 年年中達成機械完工。Kemerton I 與 II（我們位於西澳的新氫氧化鋰轉換工廠）亦按計畫於 2021 年底達成機械完工。Kemerton 是我們氫氧化鋰產能的核心，符合預期強勁的長期市場需求。這兩個專案在完成試車與客戶認證流程後，將自 2022 年起帶來可觀的商業化鋰產品銷售。隨著我們從第二波邁向第三波及後續專案，我們預期資本強度可望降低約 40%，以支撐具吸引力的經濟報酬。我們能達成這些資本效率與報酬，主要有三個關鍵原因。第一，我們能運用專案執行經驗，透過建置標準化工廠並發揮規模經濟。例如，我們預期新的氫氧化鋰工廠將採標準配置：2 條產線（trains）或年產 50,000 噸，類似我們目前在 Kemerton 正在建置的規模。第二，在許多情況下，我們正從綠地（greenfield）轉向棕地（brownfield）經濟性。正如今天我們從 La Negra I 與 II 轉向 La Negra III 與 IV；同樣地，我們也將從 Kemerton I 與 II 轉向 Kemerton III 與 IV，依此類推。如同 Kemerton，我們的重點將放在打造我們所稱的「超級基地」（mega sites）：可支援多條產線進行鋰轉換的標準化大型工廠。最後，我們將在低成本司法管轄區購置或興建更多設施，就像我們在 2016 年於中國成功收購並擴建新余（Xinyu）設施時所做的一樣。

Before I turn it over to Scott to review recent results, I'd like to acknowledge all the hard work by our Albemarle team to continue to operate during the global pandemic as well as their ability to achieve significant progress on our long-term strategy. A year ago, when my predecessor laid out our 2020 strategic objectives, I don't think any of us could have imagined how the year would play out. Despite all the challenges, our team has delivered. We set ourselves up to grow profitably, keeping our major lithium capital projects on track for 2021 completion. We maximize productivity, achieving $80 million of sustainable cost savings in 2020, 60% above our initial targets. We demonstrated financial discipline, completing our 26th consecutive year of dividend increases and maintaining our investment-grade credit rating throughout the pandemic related downturn. And finally, we improved the sustainability of our businesses by establishing baseline environmental data and improving our reporting and transparency.

在我把時間交給 Scott 回顧近期成果之前，我想肯定我們 Albemarle 團隊在全球疫情期間仍持續營運的辛勤付出，以及他們在推動我們長期策略上取得的重大進展。一年前，當我的前任提出我們 2020 年的策略目標時，我想我們任何人都無法想像這一年會如何發展。儘管面臨各種挑戰，我們的團隊仍交出成果。我們讓公司具備獲利成長的條件，並使主要鋰資本專案維持在 2021 年完工的軌道上。我們最大化生產力，在 2020 年達成 8,000 萬美元的可持續成本節省，較原先目標高出 60%。我們展現財務紀律，完成連續第 26 年提高股利，並在疫情相關的景氣下行期間全程維持投資等級信用評等。最後，我們也透過建立環境基準資料、改善揭露、提升透明度，強化各項業務的永續性。

Now -- I'll now turn the call over to Scott for a detailed review of the 2020 financial results.

現在——我將把電話會議交給 Scott，請他就 2020 年財務結果進行詳細回顧。

Thanks, Kent, and good morning, everyone. Albemarle generated fourth quarter net sales of over $879 million, a decrease of about 11% compared to the prior year. But at the high end of our previous outlook. This reduction was primarily due to reduced prices in lithium as expected coming into the year and reduced volumes in catalysts, offset by improvements in bromine. GAAP net income was $85 million, adjusted EPS of $1.17 excludes a pension mark-to-market loss due to lower discount rates. As Kent stated, adjusted EBITDA was $221 million, above the high end of our previous outlook.

謝謝你，Kent，各位早安。Albemarle 第四季淨銷售額超過 8.79 億美元，較去年同期下降約 11%。但位於我們先前展望區間的高端。這項下滑主要來自鋰產品價格如年初預期般走低，以及觸媒銷量下降，部分由溴素業務改善所抵銷。依 GAAP 計算的淨利為 8,500 萬美元；調整後每股盈餘（adjusted EPS）為 1.17 美元，排除因折現率下降導致的退休金按市價評價（mark-to-market）損失。如 Kent 所述，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.21 億美元，高於我們先前展望的高端。

Turning to Slide 13 for a look at adjusted EBITDA by business segment. Lithium's EBITDA declined by $17 million versus the prior year. Pricing was down about 20% in the quarter due to contract pricing adjustments agreed in late 2019 as well as product mix. Volumes were higher-than-expected due to a combination of improving demand and customers for filling their full year contract commitments. Cost savings to help offset the impact of lower prices. Bromine's EBITDA was up about $7 million. The increase was due to higher volumes and higher pricing. Bromine is overall a good news story. The business has essentially rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. In Q4, they benefited from higher demand, customer restocking and some short-term supply demand imbalances for both raw materials and finished goods. Catalyst EBITDA declined by $53 million, primarily due to lower volumes. This business continues to be the most challenged of the 3 due to ongoing travel restrictions as well as reduced refinery capacity utilization and margins. Fluid catalytic cracking or FCC volume improved sequentially, but remained down compared to the prior year quarter. Hydroprocessing catalyst or HPC volumes were also down with a tough comparable relative to an unusually strong Q4 2019. Our corporate and other category EBITDA decreased by $8 million due to a mix of slight -- slightly lower Fine Chemistry Services results and slightly higher corporate costs. The FCS business is contract driven and can vary quarter-to-quarter.

接著請看投影片 13，了解各事業部門的調整後 EBITDA。鋰業務 EBITDA 較去年同期減少 1,700 萬美元。本季價格約下滑 20%，主要因 2019 年底同意的合約定價調整以及產品組合影響。銷量高於預期，原因是需求改善，以及客戶為履行全年合約承諾而拉貨。成本節省有助於抵銷價格下跌的影響。溴素業務 EBITDA 約增加 700 萬美元，增幅來自更高的銷量與更高的價格。整體而言，溴素是一個好消息的故事，該業務基本上已回升至疫情前水準。第四季受惠於需求提升、客戶補庫存，以及原料與成品在短期內出現的供需失衡。觸媒業務 EBITDA 下降 5,300 萬美元，主要因銷量下滑。由於持續的旅行限制，以及煉油產能利用率與利潤率下降，這項業務在三者中仍是最具挑戰的一個。流體觸媒裂解（FCC）銷量較前一季改善，但仍低於去年同期季度。加氫處理觸媒（HPC）銷量也下降，且相較於 2019 年第四季異常強勁的表現，基期較高。我們的公司與其他類別 EBITDA 減少 800 萬美元，原因是精細化學服務（Fine Chemistry Services）業績略降，以及公司成本略升的組合影響。FCS 業務以合約驅動，可能隨季度而波動。

Full year results were very strong compared to history. Comparing the full year to fourth quarter, you can see it and get a sense of the rebound we started to see in the second half of 2020, particularly for lithium and bromine. We are pivoting capital allocation to prioritize high-return growth projects to align with strategic customer demand and maintain our leadership positions. We remain committed to preserving the financial flexibility necessary to fund growth and to maintain our investment-grade credit rating. We'll also continue to support our dividend although dividend growth may be lower than the historical average, while we build out the next wave of growth projects that will enable high return opportunities. Finally, we will pursue a disciplined and thoughtful approach to investments, including M&A and joint ventures. As we've said in the past, the most likely M&A you'd see us do would be bolt-on acquisitions of lithium conversion assets in cases where buying allows us to grow more quickly. And generate better returns than building. We are finalizing the sale of our Fine Chemistry Services and Performance Catalyst Solutions businesses and expect to update you in the coming months.

全年結果相較歷史表現非常強勁。將全年與第四季對照，你可以看出並感受到我們在 2020 年下半年開始出現的反彈，尤其是在鋰與溴素方面。我們正調整資本配置，優先投入高報酬的成長專案，以配合策略性客戶需求並維持我們的領導地位。我們仍致力於保有支持成長所需的財務彈性，並維持投資等級信用評等。我們也將持續支持股利，儘管在我們建置下一波成長專案、以創造高報酬機會的期間，股利成長可能低於歷史平均。最後，我們將以嚴謹且審慎的方式推進投資，包括併購（M&A）與合資。正如我們過去所說，你最可能看到我們進行的併購，將是在鋰轉換資產上的補強型收購（bolt-on acquisitions），在某些情況下，透過收購能讓我們更快成長，並帶來比自建更好的報酬。我們正在完成出售精細化學服務（Fine Chemistry Services）與效能觸媒解決方案（Performance Catalyst Solutions）業務，並預期在未來幾個月向各位更新。

Let's turn to Slide 15 for a look at our balance sheet. The primary use of proceeds from our equity offering is to accelerate profitable growth. The 90% -- or about 90% of the proceeds are for lithium growth, with most of the remainder for enhancements to our bromine business. The returns on these projects are highly attractive. And we expect to generate returns at least 2x our weighted average cost of capital at mid-cycle pricing. These are large, long-dated projects with the bulk of incremental spending in 2022 through 2025. In the meantime, instead of holding the proceeds as cash, we plan to delever which will reduce interest expense and cash drag on the balance sheet. This will enable us to use cash and debt capacity to fund investments as they are approved. Our long-term target net leverage ratio remains 2x to 2.5x adjusted EBITDA. Pro forma for the offering, we are below that range but expect to increase our leverage as needed to accelerate growth and deliver returns to shareholders. Overall, we expect 2021 results to improve year-over-year. For the total company, we expect net sales to be higher year-over-year as our businesses continue to recover from the events of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA of between $810 million and $860 million also suggests potential upside compared to 2020 due to higher net sales and ongoing cost savings. We expect CapEx to be slightly higher year-over-year as we begin to execute our accelerated growth projects. However, as I mentioned earlier, the bulk of that spending for these projects will be in 2022 to 2025. Net cash from operations is expected to be lower due to higher cash taxes and higher inventories as we start-up the 2 new lithium plants. Expectations for adjusted diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.65 is lower than last year due to higher taxes and depreciation as well as the increased share count. Due to the recent severe winter weather, we have temporarily shut down 4 of our U.S. plants. Our Bayport, Pasadena, Magnolia, Baton Rouge plants have been down since Monday. Once it is safe to do so, we will restart these facilities. And this situation is still evolving. At this point, we expect some impact to Q1 results and potentially Q2. And it's possible that weather will have more of an impact than what is currently included in this outlook, and we'll update you if there are any material changes.

讓我們翻到第15頁，看看我們的資產負債表。本次股權發行募集資金的主要用途，是加速具獲利性的成長。90%——也就是約90%的募集資金將用於鋰業務成長，其餘大部分將用於提升我們的溴業務。這些專案的報酬率極具吸引力。我們預期在中周期定價下，至少可產生相當於加權平均資本成本2倍的報酬。這些是規模大、期限長的專案，增量支出的主要部分將集中在2022年至2025年。與此同時，我們不打算將募集資金以現金形式持有，而是計畫去槓桿化，這將降低利息費用並減少資產負債表上的現金拖累。這將使我們能在投資獲核准時，運用現金與舉債能力來為投資提供資金。我們的長期目標淨槓桿比率仍為調整後EBITDA的2倍至2.5倍。以本次發行的備考基礎來看，我們低於該區間，但預期將視需要提高槓桿，以加速成長並為股東帶來報酬。整體而言，我們預期2021年的結果將較去年同期改善。就全公司而言，隨著各項業務持續從2020年的事件中復甦，我們預期淨銷售額將較去年同期提高。調整後EBITDA介於8.10億至8.60億美元，也顯示相較2020年可能有上行空間，主要來自更高的淨銷售額與持續的成本節省。我們預期資本支出（CapEx）將較去年同期略高，因為我們開始執行加速成長專案。然而，如我先前提到的，這些專案支出的主要部分將在2022年至2025年。營運活動淨現金預期將較低，原因是現金稅負較高，以及在我們啟動2座新的鋰工廠時庫存增加。調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）預期為3.25至3.65美元，較去年低，原因是稅負與折舊增加，以及股數增加。由於近期嚴重冬季天候，我們已暫時關閉美國4座工廠。我們的Bayport、Pasadena、Magnolia、Baton Rouge工廠自週一以來一直停工。一旦安全可行，我們將重啟這些設施。而且情況仍在演變中。目前我們預期第一季（Q1）業績將受到一些影響，並可能延伸至第二季（Q2）。也有可能天候的影響會大於目前本展望所納入的程度，如有任何重大變化，我們將向各位更新。

Let's turn to Slide 17. Lithium results are expected to be relatively flat compared to 2020. We expect slightly higher volumes with the restart of North American production late last year, as well as modest efficiency improvements. As usual, we expect volumes to be back half weighted for lithium. At this point, we still anticipate slightly lower pricing depending on full year average realized pricing for carbonate and technical grade products. Our new contract structures provide increased flexibility to increase price in response to improving market prices. Lithium costs will be slightly higher year-over-year related to the start-up cost associated with La Negra and Kemerton, partially offset by continued cost and efficiency improvements. And as Kent discussed, the long-term growth story for lithium is intact. In catalyst, we expect 2021 results to be flat year-over-year, including higher PCS earnings. We expect a decline in North American refining catalyst volume. This is primarily a result of 1 customer who recently indicated that they would deselect Albemarle's catalyst due to our public support for electric vehicles. Longer term, we are continuing to position the catalyst business to grow in emerging markets and capitalize on our strengths as a global specialty chemicals producer in the crude to chemicals market and the renewable fuels market. Raphael can give more color on the challenges and opportunities we see for our catalyst business during Q&A. In bromine, we expect full year 2021 results to improve modestly with continued economic recovery and a return to sold out plants. Our ongoing savings initiatives should offset the impact of inflation.

讓我們翻到第17頁。鋰業務的結果預期相較2020年大致持平。隨著去年底北美產能重啟，以及些許效率改善，我們預期銷量將略有提升。與往常一樣，我們預期鋰的銷量將偏向下半年。就目前而言，依全年碳酸鋰與技術級產品的平均實現價格而定，我們仍預期價格將略低。我們新的合約結構提供更高的彈性，可因應市場價格改善而提高價格。鋰成本將較去年同期略高，主要與La Negra與Kemerton的啟動成本相關，但部分將被持續的成本與效率改善所抵銷。正如Kent所討論的，鋰的長期成長故事依然完好。在催化劑方面，我們預期2021年結果將較去年同期持平，其中包含PCS獲利較高。我們預期北美煉油催化劑銷量將下滑。這主要是因為有1位客戶近期表示，因我們公開支持電動車，將不再選用Albemarle的催化劑。長期而言，我們將持續調整催化劑業務布局，以在新興市場成長，並在原油轉化學品市場與再生燃料市場中，發揮我們作為全球特用化學品生產商的優勢。Raphael可在問答環節就我們在催化劑業務所見的挑戰與機會提供更多說明。在溴方面，隨著經濟持續復甦以及工廠回到滿載（sold out）狀態，我們預期2021年全年結果將小幅改善。我們持續推動的節省計畫應可抵銷通膨的影響。

Looking ahead, we see steady demand increases for our flagship fire safety products, driven by new technology trends like 5G and electric vehicles.

展望未來，我們看到在5G與電動車等新技術趨勢帶動下，我們的旗艦防火安全產品需求將穩定增加。

I'll turn it back to Kent to review our strategic objectives for 2021.

我把時間交回給Kent，請他回顧我們2021年的策略目標。

Thanks, Scott. Albemarle finished strong in 2020, and we are excited about the opportunities ahead of us in 2021. We will continue to execute our long-term strategy. The successful completion of our Wave II projects and investment decisions on new expansion projects in lithium and bromine. We are also working with customers to reach commercial agreements for a majority of new capacity prior to investing. We will continue to maximize productivity with operational discipline across our businesses, including cost reduction, lean principles, continuous improvement and project execution excellence. We expect to achieve $75 million of productivity improvements in 2021. We will be disciplined stewards of capital, investing in high return growth, maintaining our investment-grade credit rating and supporting our dividend.

謝謝，Scott。Albemarle在2020年表現強勁收官，我們也對2021年前方的機會感到振奮。我們將持續執行長期策略，包括成功完成我們的Wave II專案，以及就鋰與溴的新擴產專案做出投資決策。我們也正與客戶合作，在投資之前就大部分新增產能達成商業協議。我們將持續在各項業務中以營運紀律最大化生產力，包括降本、精實原則、持續改善以及卓越的專案執行。我們預期在2021年達成7,500萬美元的生產力改善。我們將以嚴謹的資本管理者自許，投資於高報酬成長、維持投資級信用評等，並支持我們的股利。

Finally, we will continue to implement and improve sustainability across our company, including setting near-term goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at our existing operations and exploring science-based target options for all 3 of our businesses.

最後，我們將持續在全公司推動並提升永續發展，包括設定近期目標以降低既有營運的溫室氣體排放，並為我們三大業務探索以科學為基礎的目標（science-based target）選項。

And with that, we'd like to open up the call for questions. So Joelle, over to you.

接下來，我們想開放提問。Joelle，交給你。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的David Begleiter。

Kent, on recycling and lithium, when do you expect it to become a bigger part of the market? And what will be Albemarle's role in lithium recycling going forward?

Kent，關於回收與鋰，你預期它何時會成為市場中更重要的一部分？以及未來Albemarle在鋰回收方面將扮演什麼角色？

Yes. So let me -- I'll start with that. Maybe Eric can give a little bit more detail. So I mean we've got activities around lithium, but we expect that to be a number of years out before it becomes a major business. Basically, there has to be enough lithium in the market to -- for it to run its life cycle in a vehicle and then come back for recycling. So -- and I think our role in that, I mean, we have to look at those business options. But when you see a lithium being recycled, there's a component of that, that looks a lot like our conversion facility. So we would anticipate that we would play in that, but it's a number of years out before that comes to fruition. So Eric, anything you want to add there?

是的。那我——我先回答這個問題。也許Eric可以補充更多細節。我的意思是，我們在鋰回收方面已有一些活動，但我們預期還需要好幾年，它才會成為一項主要業務。基本上，市場上必須有足夠的鋰——讓它在車輛中完成其生命週期，然後再回到回收體系。所以——我認為我們在其中的角色是，我們必須評估那些商業選項。但當你看到鋰被回收時，其中有一部分看起來很像我們的轉換（conversion）設施。因此我們預期會參與其中，但距離真正落地仍需要好幾年。Eric，你還想補充什麼嗎？

Sure, Kent. David, I'd add that we have a number of efforts already with existing customers, both in the U.S. and in Europe who are very focused on investing in recycling capabilities. In some cases, in Europe, it's part of the EU battery directive. Those targets within EU, for example, are still being set and being discussed. The industry is offering its views on technology as are we and when it will be ready. And as Kent pointed out, we're doing some novel process development and linking it into how we might run our conversion plants or adapt those plants and those designs for that capability. So it is early days, but Albemarle is really well positioned with its customer base and it's spread across the various cathode technologies. And with our global footprint to really take advantage of that trend as it develops in the next decade.

當然，Kent。David，我補充一下：我們已經與現有客戶展開多項工作，無論在美國或歐洲，客戶都非常專注於投資回收能力。在某些情況下，在歐洲這是歐盟電池指令的一部分。舉例來說，歐盟內的那些目標仍在制定與討論中。產業界正在就技術以及何時能準備就緒提出看法，我們也是如此。正如Kent指出的，我們正在進行一些創新的製程開發，並將其連結到我們可能如何運行轉換工廠，或如何調整那些工廠與設計以具備該能力。因此目前仍屬早期階段，但Albemarle憑藉其客戶基礎、涵蓋各種正極材料（cathode）技術的布局，以及全球足跡，確實具備良好定位，可在未來十年該趨勢發展時充分受益。

And just on your Wave III projects, you list on Slide 8. When should we see -- expect a formal announcement on which project you will be moving forward? And how would you rank order these projects right now in your mind as a likelihood of moving forward first?

另外關於你們在第8頁列出的Wave III專案，我們應該何時會看到——或預期你們正式宣布將推進哪個專案？以及就你目前的看法，你會如何為這些專案排序，哪一個最可能最先推進？

Yes. I think the order that we listed them. That's kind of our order. So we expect to see a China facility would be the first thing that we would move on. We're working on that, investigating it, doing planning around it now, but it's still at a -- it's at point where it could be an acquisition. And then an acquisition usually has some element of work to it before it really becomes an Albemarle facility or a greenfield plant. But we're working on that now, and we probably come to an FID on that late '21, depending on whether it's an acquisition or a greenfield.

是的。我想我們列出的順序，就是我們的排序。所以我們預期會先推進中國的設施。我們正在就此進行工作、調查並做規劃，但目前仍處於——它處於可能是併購的階段。而併購通常在真正成為Albemarle的設施或一座綠地（greenfield）工廠之前，還需要做一些工作。但我們正在推進，並且我們可能會在2021年下半年就此做出最終投資決策（FID），取決於它是併購還是綠地。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Maybe just taking a step back. Could you talk a bit about just visibility in your lithium sales as we move into the next year, like we see all these announcements from big auto OEMs. And then smaller start-ups. And can you talk about how your salespeople attack those companies and then your lead time to that? And then maybe weaving in next year going from I think the street's at like $850 million this year to over $1 billion EBITDA next year, not to ask for guidance for '22. But just can you give us some puts and takes for growth in '22 with both volume and then how you think about pricing as well?

也許先退一步來看。能否談談隨著我們進入明年，你們在鋰銷售方面的能見度？例如我們看到許多大型汽車 OEM 的公告，以及一些較小的新創公司。你們的業務人員如何切入這些公司？以及你們的交期大概是多久？另外，也想把明年的情況一起納入：我想市場預期今年 EBITDA 大約 8.5 億美元，明年超過 10 億美元；不是要你們提供 2022 年指引，但能否談談 2022 年成長的利多與利空（puts and takes），包括量的成長，以及你們對定價的看法，尤其是當你們轉向新合約時價格可能回升？

This is Eric Norris. First, in terms of the visibility we see near term, which I think was your first question. We have 2 approaches we take, right? One is exactly what Kent described in the call, which is a macro to micro approach of modeling demand. And that has led us with some of the announcements you've referenced to increase our demand outlook on a macro basis. That -- a big part of that is what happens on the ground with our salespeople. Our strategy has been and will continue to be to use contracts to secure long-term volumes. That requires a discussion with the customer to commit. Anywhere from 3 to 5 years and a discussion that follows that into the details of what they are looking at from a specific chemistry, location and quantity point of view. So I'd characterize our visibility as quite reasonable and good in that regard, giving us a certainty we need to expand and positioning us well in the market to grow with the additional resources we have.

我是 Eric Norris。首先，就你第一個問題所提到的近期能見度而言，我們採取兩種方法，對吧？其一正如 Kent 在電話會議中所描述的，也就是以「由宏觀到微觀」的方式來建模需求。基於你提到的一些公告，這讓我們在宏觀層面上提高了需求展望。而其中很大一部分，來自我們業務人員在第一線的實際作為。我們的策略一直是、也將持續是透過合約來鎖定長期供貨量。這需要與客戶討論並做出承諾，通常是 3 到 5 年，並進一步深入討論他們在特定化學體系、地點與數量等方面的需求細節。因此，我會把我們的能見度形容為相當合理且良好，這也給了我們擴產所需的確定性，並讓我們能憑藉新增的資源在市場上取得良好定位、實現成長。

Maybe you could repeat your second question?

你可以再重複一下你的第二個問題嗎？

My second question was just the street is modeling about 20% growth, and it's mostly coming from lithium from '21 to '22. Can you talk about the puts and takes that we should think about without giving -- without having to give guidance. But the volume you're bringing on and how we should think about that versus pricing that maybe rebounds as you move to new contracts?

我的第二個問題是：市場目前在模型中預估約 20% 的成長，而且主要是 2021 到 2022 年鋰業務帶動。能否在不提供指引的前提下，談談我們應該如何看待其中的利多與利空？例如你們將新增的供應量，以及我們應如何在這些量的因素與定價（可能在你們轉向新合約時回升）之間做權衡？

Yes, Ben, this is Scott. I'll take that question. So as you look into 2022, the volumetric growth coming from lithium with the start-up of La Negra III and IV and Kemerton I and II is clearly the highlight for that year. However, we do see continued recovery in refining catalysts as transportation fuels and refinery utilization continues to improve. And potentially some additional growth in bromine as some of those early growth projects come to fruition, and we're able to place that into the market. So I think we're well positioned going into 2022 to see very meaningful and high-return growth in that year.

是的，Ben，我是 Scott。我來回答這個問題。展望 2022 年，鋰的量增主要來自 La Negra III 與 IV，以及 Kemerton I 與 II 的投產，這無疑是那一年的亮點。不過，我們也看到精煉催化劑業務持續復甦，因為運輸燃料需求與煉油廠開工率持續改善。此外，溴業務也可能有一些額外成長，隨著部分早期成長專案逐步落地，我們能把新增產能投放到市場。因此，我認為我們在 2022 年具備良好條件，將看到非常顯著且高報酬的成長。

Our next question comes from Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

So on the upward revisions here, 2025 lithium demand forecast, you pointed to, obviously, to EV penetration and the mix of EVs, larger batteries as the drivers. I'm just wondering if you could provide color on on the outlook from a hydroxide versus carbonate standpoint. I'm just curious if the upward revision is tied mostly to higher energy density EVs and therefore, more skewed towards hydroxide?

關於你們上修 2025 年鋰需求預測的部分，你們指出主要驅動因素是電動車滲透率，以及電動車組合（例如更大電池）。我想請你們補充一下氫氧化鋰相對於碳酸鋰的展望。這次上修是否主要與更高能量密度的電動車有關，因此需求更偏向氫氧化鋰？

Chris. So relative to the demand question and the mix, it is weighted towards hydroxide. If you look at the market today, we see it being sort of a 30-70 split by the 30% hydroxide, that would be that value. And if you look out to 2025, and there's going to be some error bars on this, of course, but it's about 60-40, 60% hydroxide. So the large part of the growth is in hydroxide high nickel chemistries. It's not to say there isn't growth in carbonate for more conventional technologies like LFP, but to enable the growth targets of the western OEMs, in particular, and the range they're looking for energy density, it's going to be hydroxide. And that's true even in 2021. The rate of growth we see for demand in '21 is incrementally higher for hydroxide than it's for carbonate. And as you know, Albemarle is well positioned no matter which way it goes because we have capacity coming on, and we're doubling our capacity in both product lines. As we roll forward and look at Wave III, the predominance of that is going to go towards hydroxide for the reasons I just referenced.

Chris。就需求與產品組合而言，確實更偏向氫氧化鋰。若看目前市場，我們看到大約是 30/70 的分布，其中 30% 是氫氧化鋰。而展望到 2025 年，當然會有一些誤差範圍，但大約會變成 60/40，也就是 60% 氫氧化鋰。因此，成長的很大一部分來自氫氧化鋰的高鎳化學體系。這並不是說碳酸鋰在像 LFP 這類較傳統技術上沒有成長，但要達成西方 OEM 尤其是他們所設定的成長目標，以及他們對續航與能量密度的要求，將會是氫氧化鋰。即使在 2021 年也是如此。我們看到 2021 年需求成長率，氫氧化鋰也比碳酸鋰更高。如你所知，無論市場走向哪一邊，Albemarle 都具備良好布局，因為我們兩條產品線的產能都在擴增，我們正在把兩者的產能都加倍。往前看 Wave III，其中的主體也將因我剛才提到的原因而以氫氧化鋰為主。

Got it. That's helpful. And the follow-up is regarding your comments about your contracts, which sort of are seemingly kind of -- sort of a perpetual renegotiation right now. But what -- you mentioned the ability to lift prices higher. I'm curious if there's also a floor in the renegotiated contracts. And if it applies to both EV supply chain customers and industrial-grade customers also. And then just any color on just the tone of the conversations, given that the world kind of has changed over the last 3 to 6 months, if it feels like the leverage has shifted back from them to the suppliers given maybe concerns about security of supply?

了解，這很有幫助。追問一個關於你們合約的問題：你們的合約看起來目前有點像是持續在重新談判。但你們提到有能力把價格往上調。我想知道在重新談判後的合約中，是否也會有一個價格底部（floor）？而且這是否同時適用於電動車供應鏈客戶與工業級客戶？另外，想請你們談談最近 3 到 6 個月以來對話的氛圍；在世界情勢改變之後，考量到供應安全的疑慮，是否感覺談判籌碼已從客戶端轉回供應商端？

Yes. I'll start with that and then maybe Eric give some color. I'm not sure. But I think for the industrial customers, I mean, the long-term contracts are mostly in the EV market. So when we talk about our long-term contracts, that's about the EV market, less so on the industrial side. And I don't know if the leverage really has shifted, but it has changed the tone of the discussions. And it's -- we still sit with our long-term prices above the spot market even with the moves that we've seen, but there's less pressure on those contracts. It's not that there's no pressure on those contracts, but there's, I would say, less pressure. If that trend continues, it will kind of move in the same direction. Eric, you want to top that off?

是的。我先回答，然後也許 Eric 可以補充一些看法。我不太確定，但我認為就工業客戶而言，長期合約主要是在電動車市場。所以當我們談到長期合約，主要是指電動車市場，工業端相對少一些。我也不確定籌碼是否真的轉移，但討論的語氣確實改變了。而且——即便在我們看到現貨市場出現這些變動之後，我們的長期合約價格仍高於現貨市場，但這些合約所承受的壓力變小了。不是說完全沒有壓力，但我會說壓力較小。如果這個趨勢持續，情況就會朝同樣方向發展。Eric，你要補充一下嗎？

The only thing I would add, Kent and Chris, is that these contracts -- you've characterized them Kent -- or Chris, is if have been perpetually negotiated and that they may be one size fits all. That's the change. We did make an adjustment, a concession as the market pricing collapsed a year ago. And now we're moving into restructuring these contracts based on customer needs. And there are going to be some that are going to look like spot, and that's going to be, as Kent pointed out, some of those contracts in the TG area and perhaps in the China market. There's others who are going to be like the old variety, but the vast majority is going to be variable based pricing that reflects some market index, a global index, not necessarily just China. And that's positioning us well as we go into an improving market from a price standpoint to benefit from a growth standpoint.

Kent、Chris，我唯一想補充的是：你們把這些合約形容為——Kent 或 Chris 你剛才提到——像是一直在持續談判，而且可能是一體適用（one size fits all）。而現在的改變在於：我們確實在一年前市場價格崩跌時做了調整、做出一些讓步。現在我們正依據客戶需求來重整這些合約。有些合約會更像現貨，正如 Kent 指出的，可能是 TG 領域的一些合約，以及或許在中國市場的部分合約。也有一些會像過去那種形式，但絕大多數將會是可變動的定價機制，反映某種市場指數、全球性指數，而不一定只看中國。這讓我們在價格面進入改善市場時能更好地受益，同時也能從成長面受益。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess, 2 questions. First on the recycling comments earlier. Is the message that you'll engage in significant recycling when the returns are double your WACC? Or is it that you are engaging in a significant amount of R&D to try and position yourselves for when that market develops? I mean, like are you subsidizing the market to some -- the development to some extent? And secondly, can you speak to the trends in conversion costs as specs change at the automotive OEMs or the costs rising or falling over the next few years?

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於你們先前提到的回收（recycling）。你們的意思是：只有當回收的報酬率達到你們 WACC 的兩倍時，才會大規模投入回收？還是說你們正在投入大量研發，以便在市場成熟時取得有利位置？也就是說，你們是否在某種程度上補貼市場、推動其發展？第二個問題是：隨著汽車 OEM 的規格變更，轉換成本（conversion costs）的趨勢如何？未來幾年成本是上升還是下降？

Yes. So on recycling, I think I would say it's really we're investing in R&D in process, but we're talking to customers about what a business model might look like, but it's really an early phase of that. And it's in -- we're investing at this point and trying to figure out what the business model would look like and what our role would be in that. But we're also investing in R&D to kind of get us there. So I don't think we're not sitting and waiting until we get the returns that we expect. And the kind of the biggest driver for that is there's not going to be lithium that's coming through the life cycle to feed recycling processes for another -- a number of years. And I'm sorry, the second question?

是的。關於回收，我想我會說我們主要是在流程方面投資研發，同時也在與客戶討論可能的商業模式，但目前仍處於非常早期的階段。我們現階段是在投入並試圖釐清商業模式會是什麼樣子，以及我們在其中會扮演什麼角色；同時我們也在投入研發以推進到那一步。所以我不認為我們是在坐等回收達到我們期望的報酬才開始行動。而其中最大的驅動因素是：在未來——還需要好幾年——才會有足夠的鋰在產品生命週期中流轉，能夠供應回收流程。抱歉，第二個問題是什麼？

Just with the respect as auto OEMs or as the battery specs are evolving, is the conversion costs rising or falling? Is it becoming tougher to meet those specs?

就汽車 OEM 以及電池規格持續演進而言，轉換成本是在上升還是下降？要達到那些規格是否變得更困難？

Yes. So I mean, the specs are evolving and -- but I don't know that processing costs are really going up. So we're driving hard on productivity, trying to drive those costs down. There are, in some cases, some steps that we've modified in order to meet some of the specs around crystallization. I don't think it's driving the cost up at this point, but it's probably offsetting some of our productivity gains but -- and it's -- as it gets more sophisticated, but we get better at making it. A lot of that's about process control. We are looking at one step in the process that we have to add in which would add a little bit of cost, but I think we would at a minimum, we'd offset that with our productivity.

是的。所以我的意思是，規格確實在演進——但我不確定加工成本是否真的在上升。因此我們正大力推動生產力，試圖把那些成本降下來。在某些情況下，為了符合一些與結晶相關的規格，我們調整了部分步驟。我不認為目前這會推高成本，但它可能會抵消我們部分的生產力提升——而且隨著要求變得更精密，我們也會更擅長把它做好。這其中很大一部分在於製程控制。我們正在評估在流程中新增一個步驟，這會增加一點成本，但我認為至少我們會用生產力提升把它抵消掉。

Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Mike Harrison。

I wanted to ask about the lithium business. Your pricing and mix, you said, was down 20%. Typically, I think about pricing is flowing through pretty directly to the bottom line. And so that 20% decline would have been something like $80 million of an EBITDA headwind. Yet your EBITDA was only down $18 million. So how did you make up that fairly significant difference? It doesn't looked like volume would have been big enough to make that up on its own?

我想問一下鋰業務。你們說價格與產品組合下降了 20%。一般來說，我認為價格變動幾乎會直接反映到獲利上。因此這 20% 的下滑大概會帶來約 8,000 萬美元的 EBITDA 逆風。但你們的 EBITDA 只下降了 1,800 萬美元。那你們是如何彌補這個相當顯著的差距？看起來銷量似乎不足以單靠自身就補回來？

Yes. This is Scott. I would point to -- there is volume growth in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. But also, we're seeing the results of our productivity actions from a cost perspective. And so that's been a big focus that we started in 2019 as we're trying to maximize the productivity and not only have the world-class resources that give us low-cost, but also have low-cost operations. And we're seeing the benefits of that very clearly in the fourth quarter. And we'll see benefit of that in 2021 as well, both on the cost basis, but also we're seeing some volumetric growth just from the yield enhancements and improvements that engineers are able to get out of our plants. So all pointing in the right direction for us.

是的，我是 Scott。我會指出——本季相較去年同期確實有銷量成長。但同時，我們也看到了從成本角度來看，我們生產力行動的成果。因此這一直是我們自 2019 年開始的重點，我們試圖最大化生產力，不僅擁有能帶來低成本的世界級資源，也要有低成本的營運。我們在第四季非常清楚地看到了這些效益。而且在 2021 年也會看到效益，既包括成本基礎，也包括一些量的成長，這些來自良率提升與工程師在我們工廠中所能實現的改善。因此對我們而言，一切都朝著正確方向發展。

And I would add to that. I mean, those productivity improvements, I mean, they flow through. It's much more difficult to get them on flat volumes. As we get volume growth, those really start to show up. But there'll be new facilities, which will then kind of redo the playbook on productivity again. But I think as volume grows, those really show up more.

我也補充一下。我的意思是，那些生產力改善會反映出來。在銷量持平時要取得這些改善要困難得多。當我們有銷量成長時，這些改善就會更明顯地展現出來。不過未來會有新設施，屆時又會在生產力上重新套用一套作法。但我認為隨著量的成長，這些效益確實會更顯著。

Understood. Okay. And then over on the catalyst side, you mentioned the change in customer order patterns affecting maybe the cadence of the year, but I wanted to dig in a little bit on this customer that deselected you guys because of your support for electric vehicles. Do you see that as kind of a one-off happening with a specific customer? Or are there other customers where you see this coming into play going forward?

了解。好。接著在觸媒業務方面，你們提到客戶下單模式的改變可能會影響年度節奏，但我想再深入一點談談這位因為你們支持電動車而不再選用你們的客戶。你們認為這是特定客戶的單一事件嗎？還是未來還會看到其他客戶也出現類似情況？

Yes. So it's difficult to predict the future, but we kind of see it as kind of 1 customer that took exception, and we're going to work pretty hard to gain their confidence and get that customer back. But they've kind of taken a different view at the moment.

是的。所以未來很難預測，但我們大致把它視為某一位客戶的例外情況；我們會非常努力去重新取得他們的信心並把這位客戶爭取回來。但他們目前採取了不同的看法。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just curious on the pricing outlook. You commented that maybe your overall pricing would be down a little bit year-on-year in '21 versus '20. And we have seen some initial improvement in pricing, I guess, in certain markets. So maybe you can just give us your thoughts on how price in both carbon and hydroxide evolves through the year as you see it? And maybe if there's any regional differences between China and North America, that would be helpful.

我想了解一下價格展望。你們提到 2021 年相較 2020 年整體價格可能會小幅下滑。而我們也看到某些市場的價格似乎已有初步改善。所以也許你們可以談談你們對碳酸鋰與氫氧化鋰在今年內價格走勢的看法？另外，如果中國與北美之間有任何區域差異，也請分享，會很有幫助。

So I'll make a comment, and Eric can add some color. But I mean, I think we see the same numbers that you're seeing around spot prices. So they have moved, China spot prices. So we sell little to no volume in China on a spot basis. So it's not directly applicable, but it is indicative of the market. But we've not really seen prices change outside of China. So the contract prices we have are really seen. But as I've said earlier, it lessens the pressure on our discussions with customers. So it's not as much downward pressure as we had seen, say, second quarter, third quarter of last year because those spot prices have turned up. But we'll just have to see how it plays out during the year. At the moment, the spot prices are still below our contract prices. So it's not like a sea change. If it continues to move, it -- that could give us some upside. But at the moment, that -- those prices are still below our contract prices.

我先評論一下，Eric 也可以補充一些細節。我的意思是，我想我們看到的現貨價格數據跟你們看到的一樣。中國的現貨價格確實有變動。我們在中國以現貨方式銷售的量幾乎為零，所以並不直接適用，但它能反映市場狀況。不過在中國以外，我們並沒有真的看到價格變動。因此我們的合約價格基本上仍是既有水準。但如我先前所說，這減輕了我們與客戶討論時的壓力。也就是說，下行壓力不像去年第二季、第三季那麼大，因為現貨價格已經回升。但今年會如何發展還得再看。目前現貨價格仍低於我們的合約價格，所以還談不上出現翻天覆地的變化。如果它持續上行——那可能會帶來一些上行空間。但就目前而言——那些價格仍低於我們的合約價格。

And so I'd add to that, Arun, that the prices in China that you're seeing are largely carbonate and have largely inflected in the past 2 months. It's a bit early. It's an encouraging sign, but a bit early to extrapolate that to the world. And as Kent pointed out, our business is biased to more world or ex China prices then in China prices. And most of our outlook is around carbonate and TG products, not around necessarily battery grade hydroxide, which is relatively flat in this outlook. So it's an encouraging sign. And the way we've got our contract structured, should it continue, broaden and deepen over time that trend, then we are in an extremely good position to benefit from that going forward, and we'll just continue to watch it. I would say it's a matter of -- from where we are today, it's not a matter of if prices inflect upwards broadly. It's just a matter of when. And 2021 is a transition year, I think as we go forward in the future years, it's going to get pretty tight.

Arun，我也補充一下，你看到的中國價格主要是碳酸鋰，而且主要是在過去兩個月才出現轉折。現在還有點早。這是令人鼓舞的訊號，但要把它外推到全球還為時尚早。正如 Kent 指出的，我們的業務更偏向全球或中國以外的價格，而不是中國價格。我們的展望大多圍繞碳酸鋰與 TG 產品，而不一定是電池級氫氧化鋰；在這個展望中，電池級氫氧化鋰相對持平。所以這是個令人鼓舞的訊號。而且依照我們合約的設計方式，如果這個趨勢持續、擴大並隨時間加深，那我們將處於極佳的位置，能在未來從中受益；我們也會持續觀察。我會說——以我們今天的位置來看，並不是價格是否會普遍向上轉折的問題，而是何時的問題。我認為 2021 年是過渡年，往後幾年市場會變得相當吃緊。

Great. And maybe you could also offer your thoughts on maybe a little bit longer term. You noted that it is going to get pretty tight. Would you expect pricing to kind of head back towards prior peaks that we saw in '17 and '18? And also maybe you can just comment on that as it relates to spodumene as well?

很好。也許你們也可以談談稍微長期一點的看法。你們提到市場會變得相當吃緊。你們是否預期價格會回到我們在 2017 年與 2018 年看到的先前高點附近？另外也請你們就鋰輝石（spodumene）相關部分評論一下？

Yes. So I would say, I mean, we're predicting the future, right? And this industry has really only been through 1 down cycle. So we're coming off that. We don't anticipate that prices move back to the peaks that they were before, but we don't know that. So I think I'll leave it at that.

是的。所以我會說，我們是在預測未來，對吧？而且這個產業其實只經歷過一次下行循環。我們正從那個循環走出來。我們不預期價格會回到先前的高點，但我們也不確定。所以我想我就先說到這裡。

Yes. On spodumene, we are -- because of what's happened in China, what's really -- the reason we believe prices have spiked in China, is a fundamental shortage now of available carbonate inventory and available spodumene supply and inventory. So what that's meant is now prices have started to inflect upward for chemical grade spodumene, which should that trend continue, will provide more supply into that market to meet that need. What that all means from a future standpoint, as Kent said the calculus, too hard to say, given the maturity of this market. And we'll continue to watch.

是的。關於鋰輝石，我們——因為中國發生的情況，我們認為中國價格之所以飆升，根本原因是目前可用的碳酸鋰庫存以及可用的鋰輝石供應與庫存出現了實質短缺。因此其結果是，化工級鋰輝石的價格已開始向上轉折；如果這個趨勢持續，將會為該市場帶來更多供給以滿足需求。至於這對未來意味著什麼，正如 Kent 所說，考量因素太多、很難下定論，因為這個市場仍在成熟中。我們會持續觀察。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

I just wanted to bridge the Wave III on Slide 8 with sort of the plans from when you did the MARBL JV and Just looking back at that slide, you were going to build 2 stages of 50,000 tons of LCE at Wodgina, and it was going to be $1.6 billion split between the 2 parties. It doesn't seem like you're still planning to do that at Wodgina. So what's changed and why? And that $1.6 billion number as it relates to 250,000 ton plants. Is that still a good approximation of what it would cost in Australia. Presumably, it's less in China? Just if you could just help us bridge that, that would be very helpful.

我想把第 8 頁投影片上的 Wave III 與你們當初成立 MARBL 合資公司時的計畫做個對照。回頭看那張投影片，你們原本要在 Wodgina 建兩期、每期 50,000 噸 LCE 的產能，總投資 16 億美元由雙方分攤。看起來你們現在似乎不再打算在 Wodgina 這麼做了。所以改變了什麼、原因是什麼？另外，那個 16 億美元的數字，若對應到 250,000 噸的工廠，是否仍是澳洲成本的合理近似？推測在中國會更低？如果你們能幫我們把這些串起來說明，會非常有幫助。

Yes. So I mean, I guess, our plans around the MARBL JV have evolved. But -- so the initial conversion is the Kemerton I/II. And as we see it today, the second conversion facility and the fact that 50,000 would be in China. So that would be probably that first project that we were talking about in the Wave III projects.

是的。所以我的意思是，我想我們圍繞 MARBL 合資企業（JV）的計畫已經有所演變。不過——最初的轉換項目是 Kemerton I/II。以我們目前的看法，第二座轉換設施，以及其中 50,000 噸會在中國。因此，那很可能就是我們在第三波（Wave III）專案中所談到的第一個專案。

Okay. But presumably, that's going to come in at less than the Australian CapEx cost that you had envisioned. Is that correct?

好的。但推測那項目的資本支出應該會低於你們原先設想的澳洲資本支出成本。這樣說對嗎？

Yes. Absolutely. So if it's -- it'd be -- it'll be quite a bit less than a Western Australia plant.

是的。絕對是。所以如果是——它會——它將會比西澳的一座工廠便宜相當多。

Okay. And if I could just also ask, what is the plan in terms of the Wodgina facility, I believe, is in care and maintenance mode right now. Do you intend to leave it like that? Or do you anticipate bringing it back online at some point this year?

好的。另外我也想請教，關於 Wodgina 設施的計畫是什麼？我相信它目前處於保養維護（care and maintenance）狀態。你們打算就維持這樣嗎？還是預期今年某個時點會重新啟動？

Well, I don't know about this year. So we just have to see how we evolve as the Kemerton project comes on and then we accelerate growth. I mean, Wodgina is in our plans for being a resource. It's a very good quality resource. So it's there. I don't -- off the top of -- I don't want to commit to when we bring that resource on, but it would be as we start into these Phase III projects is when we would need that resource.

嗯，我不確定是不是今年。所以我們得看 Kemerton 專案上線後我們如何演進，然後再加速成長。我的意思是，Wodgina 在我們的規劃中會作為一項資源；它是品質非常好的資源。所以它就在那裡。我——一時之間——我不想承諾何時會把那項資源重新啟用，但會是在我們開始這些第三階段（Phase III）專案時，才會需要那項資源。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

This is Corey on for Kevin. As it relates to the bromine business, at your 2019 Investor Day, you talked about expecting new resource discovery and expansion of offshore drilling. Obviously, things have changed. So how has your view of the market changed? And can you talk a little bit more about your U.S.-based bromine expansion?

我是 Corey，代 Kevin 提問。就溴業務而言，在你們 2019 年投資人日，你們談到預期會有新的資源發現以及離岸鑽探的擴張。顯然情況已經改變了。所以你們對市場的看法如何改變？另外也能否多談一些你們在美國的溴擴產？

Yes. I think in terms of our view of the offshore oil market, I think it's muted slightly. Things have changed a little bit, but we do see oil prices recovering, which we know with the lag time of 6 to 9 months is going to be good for our business going forward. In terms of the U.S. expansion, it fits right along to the corporate strategy of accelerating our lower capital intensity, higher return growth projects. Magnolia, for example, it's a great jurisdiction for us, we've been there for decades, and we know those assets well. That really lends itself to investments to have a quicker return and a higher return and those are the ones we'll leverage as we grow this business going forward.

是的。我想就我們對離岸石油市場的看法而言，我認為略為轉趨保守一些。情況有些變化，但我們確實看到油價正在回升；我們知道這會有 6 到 9 個月的滯後期，未來對我們的業務會是利多。至於美國擴產，它完全符合公司策略：加速推進資本強度較低、回報較高的成長專案。以 Magnolia 為例，對我們而言那是很好的司法管轄區，我們在那裡已經營數十年，也非常了解那些資產。這非常有利於進行投資，以取得更快、更高的回報；隨著我們未來擴大這項業務，這些就是我們會加以運用的專案。

And if I may follow-up, sort of pivoting here on divestitures. It sounds like you're close on performance catalysts. Do you have any expectations regarding aggregate proceeds and timing? And with lithium recovering and equity raise as recently, would you consider separating the balance of your catalyst business at some point?

如果我可以追問一下，轉到資產剝離的議題。聽起來你們在 performance catalysts（性能催化劑）方面已經接近完成。你們對總體處分所得與時程有任何預期嗎？另外，隨著鋰市場回升且近期也進行了股權募資，你們是否會考慮在某個時點分拆剩餘的催化劑業務？

Yes. So I mean, FCS and PCS, we're on the same track that we were. It's gone slower. COVID slowed us down, but we're -- I'd say we're back on track, but they're not done yet. And as we said in the prepared remarks that we'll kind of let you know when we get closer or -- and those deals to get signed. On catalyst, I mean, we still think that we're kind of the best owners for that business. We've been in that business for some time. We add value. We've taken a hit over COVID-19 and the miles driven being down and refinery utilization, all of those issues. But we still think we like the strategy of kind of becoming more in crude to chemicals, moving toward Asia as we move, and we still like the products we have and the innovation we have in that business, we think we're the best owners of that business for today. So we don't have immediate plans around divestiture of catalysts. They're a core part of our businesses, the 3 businesses we have in the portfolio are all core for us.

是的。所以我的意思是，FCS 和 PCS，我們仍然沿著原本的軌道前進。進度變慢了；COVID 讓我們放慢腳步，但我會說我們已回到正軌，只是還沒完成。而且如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所說，等我們更接近——或——等那些交易要簽署時，我們會再向各位更新。至於催化劑業務，我們仍然認為我們大概是這項業務最適合的擁有者。我們在這個領域已經做了一段時間；我們能創造價值。COVID-19 期間，因為行駛里程下降、煉油廠開工率等問題，我們確實受到衝擊。但我們仍然喜歡這個策略：在我們推進的過程中，更多朝向原油轉化為化學品（crude to chemicals）、並把重心移向亞洲；我們也仍然喜歡我們在該業務中的產品與創新。我們認為就目前而言，我們是這項業務最好的擁有者。因此，我們沒有立即處分催化劑業務的計畫。它們是我們核心業務的一部分；我們投資組合中的三項業務對我們而言都是核心。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Jeff Zekauskas。

You're bringing on 50,000 tons at Kemerton, 30,000 of which is yours, and you're bringing on 40,000 tons at La Negra. And you said that demand is going to be really strong for electric vehicles over a 3- year period, much stronger than people thought before. So as a base case, how many tons do you expect to sell-out of those 2 units in 2022? I know it takes time to ramp up. So of the 40,000 and the 30,000 that's yours. As a base case, how much will you sell in 2022?

你們在 Kemerton 將新增 50,000 噸產能，其中 30,000 噸是你們的份額；同時在 La Negra 新增 40,000 噸。你們也說電動車需求在三年期間會非常強勁，比先前大家想的強很多。那麼以基本情境來看，你們預期在 2022 年，這兩個單元各自能賣出多少噸？我知道需要時間爬坡。所以在 40,000 噸以及屬於你們的 30,000 噸之中，以基本情境來看，2022 年你們會賣出多少？

Yes. So Eric, if you want to look at some detail on that, I would think as we bring those plants on and ramp them up, we'd expect to be selling kind of half of each in the first year.

是的。所以 Eric，如果你想看一些細節，我認為當我們讓那些工廠上線並逐步爬坡時，我們預期第一年大概能賣出各自約一半的產量。

That's fair. Yes. If you look at -- we have an example, Jeff, obviously, we've -- in the growth mode, we've done this one other time before as part of Wave 1 what you need to and that plant came up a little north of 50%, but it was a brownfield facility with much of the existing infrastructure in place from the acquisition we've made prior to that. So Kemerton is greenfield, considering that, 50% feels reasonable. And the same with La Negra as well for 2022.

這樣說合理。是的。如果你看——我們有一個例子，Jeff，顯然我們——在成長模式下，我們以前在第一波（Wave 1）時也做過一次你需要做的這種事，那座工廠的產能爬坡略高於 50%，但那是一座棕地（brownfield）設施，因為我們先前收購時已經有很多既有基礎設施。因此，Kemerton 是綠地（greenfield），考量到這點，50% 感覺是合理的。La Negra 在 2022 年也是同樣的情況。

Right. And for my follow-up, is there any volume or EBITDA benefit from either of these 2 projects in 2021? And I guess the rock for Kemerton has to come from Talison, Greenbushes because the other -- the Wodgina mine is on -- is sleeping. Is that correct? Or is that not correct? And what's the effect on '21?

好的。那我追問一下，這兩個專案在 2021 年是否會帶來任何銷量或 EBITDA 的效益？另外，我想 Kemerton 的礦石必須來自 Talison、Greenbushes，因為另一個——Wodgina 礦山目前——是停著的。這樣說對嗎？還是不對？對 2021 年的影響是什麼？

Yes. So I don't -- and I don't think you're going to see much in '21. I mean we've got increased cost because we're commissioning and bringing those on. And if we were to -- if we could accelerate and get a little bit of sales, it would be offset by those costs, but I wouldn't be planning on benefit in '21. And initial -- and initially as it is most likely we'll feed that -- the Kemerton from the initial phases with Talison product.

是的。所以我不——而且我認為你在 2021 年不會看到太多。我是說，我們因為試車（commissioning）並讓那些設施上線而有成本增加。即使我們能加速並取得一些銷售，也會被那些成本所抵銷，所以我不會預期 2021 年會有正面效益。而且一開始——而且最初很可能我們會用 Talison 的產品來供應——Kemerton 的初期階段。

Your next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自 Citigroup 的 P.J. Juvekar。

Currently in China, the carbonate prices are higher than hydroxide prices because of comeback of the LFP batteries. Do you think that's a trend or it's an anomaly that may not last? And then secondly, just on pricing, you had given sort of 15% concessions on certain contracts in 2020. And the expectation that the time was in 2021, those contracts will go back to original pricing. Did that happen on those contracts?

目前在中國，因為 LFP 電池回溫，碳酸鋰價格高於氫氧化鋰價格。你認為這是一個趨勢，還是只是可能不會持續的異常現象？第二個問題是關於定價：你們在 2020 年對某些合約給了大約 15% 的讓步，當時的預期是 2021 年這些合約會回到原本的定價。那些合約有發生這件事嗎？

So on the first question, P.J., it's Eric here. The carbonate delta on carbonating the inversion of carbonate being higher than historically, hydroxide is a $1 or $2 lower. We think that's a dislocation of a rapidly responding China market, which is largely carbonate and not a long time trend. It's important to understand that a lot of the hydroxide market is supplied by low-cost brine producers, of which Albemarle one is on converting to hydroxide, which is what we do at Kings Mountain. And without that supply, there's not enough market, there's enough volume for the marketplace. So the point is that the economics say that there has to be that incentive for those producers to go to hydroxide. So we expect that to revert, and we are obviously very well positioned in both product lines to participate.

關於第一個問題，P.J.，我是 Eric。碳酸鋰的價差——也就是碳酸鋰價格高於過往、而氫氧化鋰反而低 1 到 2 美元——我們認為這是中國市場快速反應所造成的錯位；中國市場以碳酸鋰為主，這不會是一個長期趨勢。重要的是要理解，氫氧化鋰市場有很大一部分供應來自低成本鹵水生產商；其中 Albemarle 就有一部分在轉換成氫氧化鋰，這也是我們在 Kings Mountain 所做的事。若沒有那部分供應，市場就不夠——市場就沒有足夠的量來滿足需求。重點是，從經濟性來看，必須要有那樣的誘因，才能讓那些生產商轉向生產氫氧化鋰。因此我們預期會回歸正常，而我們在兩條產品線上都具備非常好的布局，可以參與其中。

P.J., your second question was what again, please?

P.J.，請問你的第二個問題是什麼來著？

So your contracts that were reset in 2020 lower and they were expected to go back to the original price in 2021.

所以你們在2020年被重新設定為較低價格的合約，原本預期在2021年回到原始價格。

Well recall what we had -- what we've done. Our strategy has been to migrate these contracts to benefit from the recovering market price. What we have converted several of them over and struck new ones based upon a market reference price, either in all or part, it depends on the customer. And we are -- we'll do the remainder of this year going forward. So that's our strategy. Our strategy is to take advantage of the inflection of price, not to go back to a fixed price in the past necessarily, although there are some customers who are asking for that, right? So it's not a one size fits all answer. But the aim is to benefit from a recovering market in prices in terms of how we structure those contracts.

嗯，回想一下我們當時——我們做了什麼。我們的策略一直是把這些合約轉換，以便受益於市場價格回升。我們已經把其中幾份合約轉換過來，並依據市場參考價格（全部或部分，取決於客戶）簽訂了新的合約。而且我們——今年剩下的時間以及往後也會繼續完成其餘部分。所以這就是我們的策略。我們的策略是把握價格的轉折點，而不一定要回到過去的固定價格，雖然確實有一些客戶在要求那樣，對吧？所以這不是一個一體適用的答案。但目標是，在我們如何設計這些合約的方式上，能夠受益於價格回升的市場。

So Eric, if I heard you right, are you saying that your contracts are going to be more sort of dependent on price or maybe more variable pricing as opposed to like a fixed annual price?

所以 Eric，如果我沒聽錯的話，你是說你們的合約會更偏向依賴價格，或是採用更具變動性的定價，而不是像固定的年度價格那樣？

That is correct. That is correct. It will vary. Look, I can give you examples of some customers who want a fixed price. They want the stability. That today as the price is well above -- we're not going to agree to that unless it's well above market. And -- but that's one segment of the customer base. Another segment and a big chunk wants some variability to say that they are able to move with the marketplace relative to other -- their competitors or other sources of supply they buy. And as a result, those contracts will have that kind of a market-based component to them, either collared or in part for their volume or for a large part of their volume. The degree to which we give that flexibility also dictates how much of a commitment we make to them as well. The more spot based the customer wants to be, the less likely we're going to commit to them long-term and use that as part of our justification for expansion. So there are some caveats there in our value proposition, but that's how we're approaching things. And all of this is going to allow us, we believe, to really improve our overall mix on a price and profitability basis as the market price recovers.

沒錯。沒錯。它會有所不同。你看，我可以舉例，有些客戶想要固定價格，他們想要穩定性。以目前價格遠高於——我們不會同意，除非它遠高於市場價。而且——但那只是客戶群中的一個區塊。另一個區塊，而且是很大的一部分，則希望有一定的變動性，讓他們能夠隨市場變動，以便相對於其他——他們的競爭對手或其他供應來源的採購價格同步。因此，這些合約會包含那種以市場為基礎的組成部分，可能是設有上下限（collared），或是針對其用量的一部分或很大一部分採用市場化。至於我們提供多大程度的彈性，也會影響我們對他們做出多大程度的承諾。客戶越希望以現貨為主，我們就越不可能對其做出長期承諾，並把這種承諾作為我們擴產合理性的依據。所以在我們的價值主張中有一些但書，但我們就是這樣在推進。而我們相信，隨著市場價格回升，這一切將使我們能夠在價格與獲利能力方面，真正改善整體產品/合約組合。

Your next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Bob Koort。

I wanted to explore a little bit more on the MARBL integration with how you plan your lithium expansion. So a couple of questions there. What will be the transfer price from Talison to the Kemerton MARBL JVs? And why pursue the Chinese expansion in concert with MARBL, if you could get 100% of it. And now you have the financial wherewithal with the accommodating equity markets to fund that kind of expansion? Why share that? Why not keep it all for your shareholders?

我想再深入探討一下 MARBL 的整合，以及你們如何規劃鋰擴產。這裡有幾個問題。Talison 轉給 Kemerton MARBL 合資企業的移轉價格會是多少？另外，如果你們可以取得 100% 的中國擴產，為什麼還要在推進 MARBL 的同時一起做中國擴產？而且現在在股權市場環境有利的情況下，你們也具備資金實力來支應這類擴張。為什麼要分享？為什麼不把全部都留給股東？

Yes. So well, I would say the short answer on that is that was in our original agreement that we would do 2 of the 50,000 tons, and the one we expect to do would be the 1 in China. And so that's part of the JV. So we -- I mean -- and the JV was done because, one, to get the resource for the Wodgina mine we have at and also their expertise at mining to help us on that side. Because we're more of chemical processing expertise on our side. And they bring the expertise on the mining side. So that's kind of the logic behind overall. And that's part of the original deal that we did with them. So we're committed to doing another project, another conversion project with them.

是的。嗯，我會說，簡短的答案是：那在我們原始協議裡就已經約定，我們會做兩個 50,000 噸的項目，而我們預期要做的那一個會是在中國的那個。因此那是合資的一部分。所以我們——我的意思是——而且成立合資的原因是：第一，為了取得我們在 Wodgina 礦所需的資源；第二，他們在採礦方面的專業也能在那一端協助我們。因為我們這邊更偏向化學加工的專長，而他們帶來的是採礦端的專業。這就是整體邏輯。而這也是我們當初與他們達成交易的一部分。所以我們承諾會再與他們做另一個項目、另一個轉換（conversion）項目。

Okay. And maybe if I could get an answer on the transfer price from Talison. And then also your new La Negra project is going to use a thermal evaporator. Can you talk about what that does to the cost structure out of La Negra III and IV versus the capacity that's already there in I and II from a cost curve standpoint?

好的。那如果可以的話，我想請你回答一下 Talison 的移轉價格。另外，你們新的 La Negra 專案將使用熱蒸發器（thermal evaporator）。你能談談這對 La Negra III 和 IV 的成本結構，相較於既有的 I 和 II 產能，從成本曲線的角度會有什麼影響嗎？

Yes. So on the transfer price, I mean, it's a kind of established market price. So we were following Australian tax rules around that. And so it's a market -- I would say it's a market price. Arms length market transaction around that. And then the thermal evaporator, I mean the -- it was a return project, it's driven by financials, but probably just as much around sustainability. So it allows us to operate without water or much less water than we were using before. And that's an area where water is tight and then the cost of that. I think the returns were good. I don't recall exactly what they were. I don't know that they were extraordinary, but the benefit was also around from a sustainability perspective as well.

好的。關於移轉價格，我的意思是，它是一種既定的市場價格。我們是依照澳洲稅務規則來處理。因此它是市場——我會說它是市場價格，屬於獨立交易（arms length）的市場交易。至於熱蒸發器，我的意思是——這是一個回報型專案，它由財務驅動，但同樣也很大程度是出於永續性考量。它讓我們在營運上不需要用水，或是用水量遠低於以前。而那個地區水資源緊張，水的成本也高。我認為回報是不錯的。我不記得確切數字。我不確定是否特別突出，但其好處也在於永續性的面向。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Mike Sison。

Just one quick question on your 2025 forecast. Do you and the sort of abundance believe the industry can sort of support that by then? And then how much capacity do you hope to have online by 2025 to support that growth?

關於你們 2025 年的預測，我只有一個簡短問題。你們以及市場上的供給充裕情況，是否認為產業到那時能夠支撐這樣的預測？另外，到 2025 年你們希望有多少產能上線來支撐這個成長？

So I mean I think the -- I mean, I can't speak for the industry. So part of -- as we see acceleration in EV adoption, that's kind of what has moved us in this current pivot toward accelerating our growth plans. And the goal is that we kind of maintain our share in there. Eric, maybe you want to talk about the capacity in 2025? I don't have that number in my head.

所以我的意思是，我想——我無法代表整個產業發言。所以其中一部分——隨著我們看到電動車（EV）採用加速，這正是促使我們在這次轉向中加快成長計畫的原因。而目標是我們能在其中維持市占。Eric，也許你想談談 2025 年的產能？我腦中沒有那個數字。

Well, I think a rule of thumb way to think about our capacity growth and the plans that we put forth for Wave III and for Wave IV to sustain our leadership and grow with the market is it's going to be hydroxide weighted to the growth. We already commented on that earlier in an earlier question, and it's going to require, as you get out in the middle part of the decade, us bringing at least 50,000 tons to market a year of hydroxide. And that is what that plan, if you look at the details, would enable into the middle of the decade and beyond. So approximately speaking, you're talking about 150,000 tons of growth a year in the marketplace or in that neighborhood, like and -- are bringing on 50,000. That's the kind of pace we're looking at.

嗯，我想用一個經驗法則來看我們的產能成長，以及我們為 Wave III 和 Wave IV 所提出、用以維持領導地位並隨市場成長的計畫：成長將以氫氧化鋰為主。我們在前面一個問題中已經提過這點。到了十年期的中段，我們至少需要每年把 50,000 噸的氫氧化鋰推向市場。而如果你看細節，那個計畫將能在十年期中段及之後做到這一點。所以大致來說，你談的是市場每年約 150,000 噸的成長，或大概在那個區間，而我們會新增 50,000 噸。這就是我們所看的節奏。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Kent Masters for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話交回給 Kent Masters 作結語。

Okay. Thank you, Joelle. In closing, Albemarle is well positioned to capitalize on long-term growth trends for all 3 of our core businesses. We have built the capabilities to accelerate low capital intensity, higher return growth. At the same time, we will continue to control what we can control. That means, first and foremost, focusing on the health and well-being of our employees, customers and communities. It also means building operational discipline and sustainability into all aspects of our business, including manufacturing, supply chain, capital project execution and customer experience. We remain confident in our strategy, and we will modify execution to position Albemarle for success. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，Joelle。最後，Albemarle 已做好充分準備，把握我們三大核心業務的長期成長趨勢。我們已建立相關能力，以較低資本強度、較高回報來加速成長。同時，我們將持續管控我們能管控的事項。這意味著，首先也是最重要的，是聚焦於員工、客戶與社區的健康與福祉。也意味著在我們業務的各個面向建立營運紀律與永續性，包括製造、供應鏈、資本專案執行與客戶體驗。我們對策略仍具信心，並將調整執行方式，使 Albemarle 站在成功的位置。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。