雅保公司 (ALB) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Q2 2021 Albemarle Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加雅保公司（Albemarle Corporation）2021 年第二季（Q2 2021）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒您，本次電話會議將被錄音。

I will now like to turn the conference over to your host, Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Sustainability and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給本次會議主持人——永續發展與投資人關係副總裁 Meredith Bandy。請開始。

Thanks, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Albemarle's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings were released after the close of market yesterday, and you will find the press release, earnings presentation and non-GAAP reconciliations on our website under the Investor Relations section at www.albemarle.com.

謝謝接線員，也歡迎各位參加雅保 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。我們的財報已於昨日收盤後發布，您可在 www.albemarle.com 網站「投資人關係」專區找到新聞稿、財報簡報以及非 GAAP 調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer. Raphael Crawford, President, Catalyst; Netha Johnson, President, Bromine Specialties; and Eric Norris, President, Lithium, are also available for Q&A.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有執行長 Kent Masters，以及財務長 Scott Tozier。催化劑事業群總裁 Raphael Crawford、溴特用化學品事業群總裁 Netha Johnson，以及鋰事業群總裁 Eric Norris 也將出席問答環節。

Reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including outlook, guidance, expected company performance and timing of expansion projects may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation, that same language applies to this call.

提醒您，本次電話會議中的部分陳述，包括展望、指引、公司預期表現以及擴產專案時程，可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。請留意我們新聞稿與財報簡報中關於前瞻性陳述的警示性用語；同樣的用語亦適用於本次電話會議。

Also note that some of our comments today refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and appendix of the presentation, both are posted on the website. And finally, as a reminder, Albemarle will be hosting our 2021 Investor Day the morning of Friday, September 10, webcast live from our Charlotte offices. Registration for webcast is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

另外請注意，我們今天的部分評論將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。與 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節可在我們的財報新聞稿及簡報附錄中找到，兩者皆已發布於公司網站。最後提醒，雅保將於 9 月 10 日（週五）上午在夏洛特辦公室舉辦 2021 年投資人日，並進行線上直播。網路直播的報名亦可在我們網站的「投資人關係」專區完成。

And now I'll turn the call over to Kent.

接下來我把電話交給 Kent。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On today's call, I'll highlight quarterly results and our recent strategic achievements. I'll also introduce the new operating model we are implementing to support Albemarle's growth strategy. Scott will give you more detail on our results, outlook and guidance.

早安，感謝各位今天加入我們。在今天的電話會議中，我將重點說明本季業績以及近期的策略性成果。我也會介紹我們正在導入、用以支持雅保成長策略的新營運模式。Scott 將更詳細說明我們的業績、展望與指引。

Our businesses continue to execute well as global markets improve. Second quarter net sales were $774 million and adjusted EBITDA was $195 million, both of which marked a slight improvement compared to the second quarter of last year. Note that we closed the divestiture of FCS on June 1. So second quarter 2021 included only 2 months of FCS results.

隨著全球市場改善，我們各項業務持續良好執行。第二季淨銷售額為 7.74 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.95 億美元，兩者相較去年第二季皆略有提升。請注意，我們已於 6 月 1 日完成 FCS 的出售，因此 2021 年第二季僅包含 2 個月的 FCS 業績。

Excluding FCS, net sales increased 5% and adjusted EBITDA was up 13% compared to last year. And our financial release issued yesterday after the close, we revised our guidance for the year, in part to reflect higher lithium performance, but also supply chain disruptions for our bromine business. We've also updated full year guidance to reflect the sale of FCS. Scott will walk you through those changes in more detail in just a few minutes.

若排除 FCS，淨銷售額較去年增加 5%，調整後 EBITDA 增加 13%。在昨日收盤後發布的財務新聞稿中，我們已修訂全年指引，部分反映鋰業務表現優於預期，但也反映溴業務供應鏈中斷的影響。我們亦更新全年指引以反映 FCS 的出售。Scott 將在幾分鐘後更詳細說明這些變動。

We continue to execute on our next wave of growth projects to capitalize on attractive long-term fundamentals in the markets we serve. We recently completed construction of La Negra 3 and 4 as planned, and we are progressing through the commissioning stage. Finally, I want to briefly describe the operating model we are launching to drive greater value, improve performance and deliver exceptional customer service. And you see that on Slide 5.

我們持續推進下一波成長專案，以掌握所服務市場具吸引力的長期基本面。我們近期如期完成 La Negra 3 與 4 的建設，並正進入試車（commissioning）階段。最後，我想簡要說明我們即將啟動的營運模式，以創造更大價值、提升績效並提供卓越的客戶服務。您可在第 5 張投影片看到。

Our operating model, which we call the Albemarle Way of Excellence, or AWE, serves as a framework for how we execute, deliver and ultimately accelerate our strategy. AWE is based on 4 pillars: sustainable approach includes responsibly managing our natural resourcing and engaging with our stakeholders; high-performance culture includes focusing on safety leadership and fostering an agile, engaged corporate culture; competitive capabilities means we are ensuring we have the right talent, resources and technologies; and finally, operational discipline is about embracing lean principles and operational excellence across the organization.

我們的營運模式稱為「雅保卓越之道」（Albemarle Way of Excellence，簡稱 AWE），作為我們如何執行、交付並最終加速策略的框架。AWE 建立在四大支柱之上：永續方法——包括負責任地管理自然資源並與利害關係人互動；高績效文化——包括聚焦安全領導力並培養敏捷、投入的企業文化；競爭能力——意指確保我們具備正確的人才、資源與技術；最後，營運紀律——著重於在全組織採用精實原則與營運卓越。

The operating model helps us connect our strategy with day-to-day initiatives, prioritize projects, clarify resource allocation, ensure accountability and drive efficient and profitable execution. We will discuss the operating model in more detail at our upcoming Investor Day on September 10.

此營運模式有助於我們將策略與日常倡議連結、優先排序專案、釐清資源配置、確保問責並推動高效率且具獲利性的執行。我們將在 9 月 10 日即將舉行的投資人日更詳細討論此營運模式。

Now turning to Slide 6. We've completed construction of La Negra 3 and 4 in Chile and are in the commissioning stage. We expect commercial production from these 2 trains beginning in the first half of next year, ramping to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year by 2024. This brownfield project allows us to increase existing capacity and leverage our world-class brine resource in Chile, just one of the avenues of growth that we have as an established lithium producer with a global footprint.

接著看第 6 張投影片。我們已完成智利 La Negra 3 與 4 的建設，並正處於試車階段。我們預期這兩條產線將於明年上半年開始商業化生產，並在 2024 年前逐步提升至每年 40,000 噸碳酸鋰的產能。此棕地（brownfield）專案使我們得以提升既有產能，並運用我們在智利的世界級鹵水資源；對於一家具有全球布局的成熟鋰生產商而言，這只是我們成長途徑之一。

We also continue to progress our Kemerton conversion facility in Western Australia. To mitigate risk related to the tight labor market and COVID-related travel restrictions in Western Australia, we have modified our execution strategy to prioritize Kemerton I over Kemerton II. Kemerton I remains on track for construction completion by the end of the year.

我們也持續推進位於西澳的 Kemerton 轉換工廠。為降低西澳勞動市場緊俏及 COVID 相關旅行限制所帶來的風險，我們已調整執行策略，優先推進 Kemerton I 而非 Kemerton II。Kemerton I 仍按計畫於年底前完成建設。

We now anticipate completion of Kemerton II by the end of the first quarter next year, a delay of about 3 months. These delays and higher labor rates have also increased capital cost. It's been a difficult situation in a labor market that was already tight, but we have been able to maintain the schedule for Kemerton I with only a 3-month delay for Kemerton II. We continue to expect commercial production for both Kemerton I and II during 2022.

我們目前預期 Kemerton II 將於明年第一季末完成，約延後 3 個月。這些延遲以及較高的勞務費率也推升了資本成本。在原本就緊俏的勞動市場下，這是一個艱難的情況，但我們仍能維持 Kemerton I 的時程，而 Kemerton II 僅延後 3 個月。我們仍預期 Kemerton I 與 II 皆將於 2022 年實現商業化生產。

Importantly, we are making progress on our Wave III lithium projects, and we'll provide further details at Investor Day in September. Site selection is underway, and we are negotiating with the authorities to include investment agreements. We're also expediting investments in bromine to meet increasing demand. We completed the first well at Magnolia ahead of schedule and under budget.

更重要的是，我們在第三波（Wave III）鋰專案方面正取得進展，並將於 9 月投資人日提供更多細節。場址選定正在進行中，我們也正與主管機關協商納入投資協議。同時，我們也加速溴業務投資以滿足日益增加的需求。我們已提前且在預算內完成 Magnolia 的第一口井。

Unfortunately, we're unable to take advantage of that additional capacity in the second half due to shortages of chlorine in the supply chain. We also have 2 projects in Arkansas that are currently in the select phase. These projects are designed to increase production capacity of clear brine fluids and hydrobromic acid. A third project to increase the capacity of our brominated flame retardants is in the evaluate stage.

不幸的是，由於供應鏈中氯氣短缺，我們在下半年無法充分利用這些新增產能。我們在阿肯色州另有兩個專案目前處於選擇（select）階段，旨在提升透明鹵水流體（clear brine fluids）與氫溴酸的產能。第三個用以提升溴化阻燃劑產能的專案則處於評估（evaluate）階段。

I'll now hand the call over to Scott, who will provide an overview of our financial results for the quarter.

接下來我把電話交給 Scott，由他概述本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Kent, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 7. We generated net sales of $774 million during the second quarter, which is a slight increase from the same period last year, driven by stronger sales from our lithium and bromine segments. Higher sales as well as strong operating margins resulted in an adjusted EBITDA of $195 million, which was 5% higher year-over-year. GAAP net income of $425 million includes an after-tax gain of $332 million related to the divestiture of our FCS business to W.R. Grace. Adjusted EPS, which excludes the gain on FCS, was $0.89 for the quarter, up 4% from the prior year.

謝謝 Kent，各位早安。我將從第 7 張投影片開始。第二季我們的淨銷售額為 7.74 億美元，較去年同期略增，主要由鋰與溴事業群較強勁的銷售所帶動。銷售增加加上強勁的營業利潤率，使調整後 EBITDA 達 1.95 億美元，年增 5%。GAAP 淨利 4.25 億美元包含與將 FCS 業務出售給 W.R. Grace 相關的稅後處分利益 3.32 億美元。排除 FCS 處分利益後的調整後 EPS 為 0.89 美元，較去年同期增加 4%。

Let's turn to Slide 8 for a look at adjusted EBITDA by business. Excluding FCS, second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% or $22 million compared to the prior year. Higher adjusted EBITDA for lithium and bromine was partially offset by higher corporate costs related to incentive compensation and foreign exchange movements.

接著看第 8 張投影片，了解各業務的調整後 EBITDA。排除 FCS 後，第二季調整後 EBITDA 較去年增加 13%，亦即增加 2,200 萬美元。鋰與溴的調整後 EBITDA 增加，部分被較高的公司層級成本所抵銷，該成本主要與獎酬激勵以及外匯變動有關。

Lithium's adjusted EBITDA increased by $19 million, excluding FX compared to last year, primarily driven by higher volumes, as customers under long-term agreements continue to pull orders forward and we shipped higher spodumene volumes from our Talison joint venture. Adjusted EBITDA for bromine increased by $16 million due to higher volumes and pricing.

鋰業務的調整後 EBITDA（排除外匯影響）較去年增加 1,900 萬美元，主要由出貨量提升所帶動；在長期合約下的客戶持續提前拉貨，我們也自 Talison 合資企業出貨了更高的鋰輝石（spodumene）量。溴業務的調整後 EBITDA 因出貨量與價格提升而增加 1,600 萬美元。

End market demand continues to very strong following the winter storms experienced in Q1 we had very limited excess capacity or inventory to meet that additional demand. Catalyst adjusted EBITDA declined just $1 million from the previous year. CFT volumes were down due to shipment timing, FCC continued to be impacted by a change in their order patterns from a large North American customer, although the FCC demand trend was generally higher.

在第一季冬季風暴之後，終端市場需求持續非常強勁，而我們可用的閒置產能或庫存非常有限，難以滿足額外需求。催化劑事業群的調整後 EBITDA 較去年僅下降 100 萬美元。CFT 出貨量因出貨時點影響而下滑；FCC 仍受到北美一位大型客戶訂單模式改變的影響，儘管 FCC 的需求趨勢整體上升。

This was partially offset by excellent PCS results which benefited from a favorable customer mix. Slide 9 highlights the company's financial strength. Since the beginning of the year, we have taken significant steps to strengthen our balance sheet. The strategic decision to divest our FCS business added cash proceeds to the balance sheet and reduced our leverage ratio to 1.5x. That transaction further demonstrates our ability to drive value by prudently managing our asset portfolio.

這部分被 PCS 的優異表現所部分抵銷，PCS 受惠於有利的客戶組合。第 9 張投影片凸顯公司的財務實力。自年初以來，我們已採取重大措施強化資產負債表。策略性出售 FCS 業務為資產負債表帶來現金收入，並將槓桿比率降至 1.5 倍。該交易進一步展現我們透過審慎管理資產組合以創造價值的能力。

Our strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit rating gives us the financial flexibility we need to accelerate profitable growth and continue to provide a growing dividend. Turning to Slide 10. I'll walk you through the updates to our guidance that Kent mentioned earlier. And there are several key changes from our previous guidance. First, higher net sales guidance reflects higher lithium sales volumes and improving catalyst trends, offset by a lower bromine outlook.

我們強健的資產負債表與投資等級信用評等，賦予我們所需的財務彈性，以加速獲利成長並持續提供逐步成長的股利。接著看第10頁。我將帶各位回顧 Kent 先前提到的財測指引更新，且相較於我們先前的指引有幾項關鍵變動。首先，淨銷售額指引上調，反映鋰產品銷售量提高與觸媒趨勢改善，但部分被溴業務展望下修所抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA guidance is the same reflecting higher net sales, offset by higher corporate costs and foreign exchange expense. Guidance on adjusted diluted EPS and net cash from operations is improving from an expected reduction in interest expense and tax rates. The timing of working capital changes is also expected to benefit net cash from operations. And finally, we see capital expenditures trending towards the high end of our previous $850 million to $950 million range based on the tight labor markets in Western Australia, as Kent discussed.

調整後 EBITDA 指引維持不變，因淨銷售額提高被較高的公司成本與外匯費用所抵銷。調整後稀釋 EPS 與營運活動淨現金流指引有所改善，主要來自預期利息費用與稅率下降。營運資金變動的時點也預期將有利於營運活動淨現金流。最後，如 Kent 所述，受西澳勞動市場緊俏影響，我們看到資本支出趨勢將落在先前 8.5 億至 9.5 億美元區間的高端。

In the far-right column, pro forma revised guidance ranges are adjusted for the sale of our FCS business on June 1 this year, removing the guidance on FCS for the rest of the year. I'm turning to Slide 11 for more detail on the GBUs outlook. Adjusted EBITDA for lithium is expected to increase by 10% to 15% over last year, an improvement from our previous outlook. Lithium volume growth is expected to be in the mid-teens on a percentage basis, mostly due to higher tolling volumes as well as the restart of North American plants at the beginning of the year and improvements in plant productivity.

在最右欄，備考（pro forma）修正後指引區間已反映我們於今年 6 月 1 日出售 FCS 業務，並移除今年剩餘期間對 FCS 的指引。接著看第11頁，以更詳細說明各 GBU 的展望。鋰業務的調整後 EBITDA 預期較去年增加 10% 至 15%，較我們先前展望有所改善。鋰銷量成長預期為百分比中十位數（mid-teens），主要來自代工（tolling）量增加、年初北美工廠重啟，以及工廠生產力提升。

Our pricing outlook is unchanged. We continue to expect average realized pricing to increase sequentially over the second half of the year, but to remain roughly flat compared to full year 2020. We also continue to expect margins to remain below 35%, owing to higher costs related to project start-ups and incremental tolling costs. Margins should improve as the plants ramp up commercial sales volumes.

我們的定價展望不變。我們仍預期下半年平均實現價格將逐季上升，但與 2020 全年相比大致持平。我們也持續預期毛利率將維持在 35% 以下，原因在於專案啟動相關成本上升以及新增代工成本。隨著工廠逐步提升商業化銷售量，毛利率應可改善。

Our outlook for Catalyst hasn't changed since the first quarter report with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to be lower by 30% to 40%. However, we are more optimistic as fuel markets continue to improve globally. Lower year-over-year results are primarily related to the impact of the U.S. Gulf Coast, winter storm in the first quarter and the ongoing impact from the change in customer order patterns in North America.

觸媒業務展望自第一季財報以來未變，調整後 EBITDA 預期將年減 30% 至 40%。不過，隨著全球燃料市場持續改善，我們更為樂觀。年對年結果較低，主要與第一季美國墨西哥灣沿岸冬季風暴的影響，以及北美客戶下單模式改變的持續影響有關。

Finally, for bromine, we now expect mid-single-digit year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which is down from our previous outlook due to a force majeure declaration from our chlorine supplier in the U.S. Like many industrial companies, we are -- increased costs and supply disruptions for raw materials, but it is partially offset by price and productivity improvements.

最後，就溴業務而言，我們目前預期調整後 EBITDA 年對年將呈現中個位數成長，較先前展望下修，原因是我們在美國的氯供應商宣布不可抗力（force majeure）。如同許多工業公司，我們正面臨原物料成本上升與供應中斷，但部分可由價格與生產力改善所抵銷。

Results are expected to be lower in the second half as production is constrained due to the chlorine shortage. We are accelerating our expansion plans in bromine. However, we have been unable to take advantage of this new capacity yet due to the chlorine disruption. Looking ahead to 2022, we expect sales and EBITDA increases for all 3 businesses.

由於氯短缺導致產量受限，預期下半年結果將較低。我們正加速溴業務的擴產計畫；然而，因氯供應受擾，我們尚無法充分利用新增產能。展望 2022 年，我們預期三大業務的銷售與 EBITDA 均將增加。

Lithium results are expected to improve on the higher volumes as the new plants ramp up. Bromine results are expected to rebound from short-term supply chain disruptions and the winter storm impacts, and Catalyst results are expected to rebound strongly from 2021 levels, assuming continued improvements in global transportation fuel demand.

隨著新工廠逐步放量，鋰業務結果預期將因更高的銷量而改善。溴業務結果預期將自短期供應鏈中斷與冬季風暴影響中反彈；而觸媒業務結果在全球運輸燃料需求持續改善的假設下，預期將自 2021 年水準強勁回升。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Kent.

以上，我把時間交還給 Kent。

Okay. Thanks, Scott. On Slide 12, we continue to execute on our strategic objectives for 2021. First, we are growing profitably. Construction is complete at La Negra, and we are commissioning this project with commercial volumes expected in the first half of next year. Both Kemerton trains are expected to contribute volumes in 2022 as well, despite the restructuring of our execution plan at Kemerton. As previously discussed, we are making progress on our Wave 3 lithium projects and expediting investments in bromine to meet increasing demand.

好的。謝謝，Scott。第12頁，我們持續推進 2021 年的策略目標。第一，我們正以獲利方式成長。La Negra 的建設已完成，我們正在進行試車（commissioning），預期明年上半年可達到商業化出貨量。儘管我們在 Kemerton 調整了執行計畫，兩條 Kemerton 產線也預期在 2022 年貢獻出貨量。如先前所述，我們在 Wave 3 鋰專案上持續取得進展，並加速溴業務投資以因應需求增加。

Second, we are increasing productivity. We are on track to achieve at least our targeted $75 million in productivity improvements this year. We expect to continue to build on these improvements as we implement our operating model and build a culture of continuous improvement.

第二，我們正提升生產力。我們有望在今年達成至少 7,500 萬美元的生產力改善目標。隨著我們導入營運模式並建立持續改善文化，我們預期將在此基礎上持續精進。

Third, we are maintaining our disciplined approach to investments and continue to optimize shareholder value by actively managing our portfolio of assets, including the recently completed FCS divestiture. Finally, all of our efforts are being driven with sustainability in mind.

第三，我們維持對投資的紀律化作法，並透過積極管理資產組合（包括近期完成的 FCS 出售案）持續優化股東價值。最後，我們所有努力皆以永續為核心驅動。

At our annual sustainability report published at the beginning of June, we disclosed initial sustainability targets, including plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and freshwater use. We are also working closely with customers, investors and ESG rating companies to make sure they are up to speed on all these developments and have a full appreciation for our efforts.

在我們於 6 月初發布的年度永續報告中，我們揭露了初步的永續目標，包括降低溫室氣體排放與淡水使用的計畫。我們也正與客戶、投資人及 ESG 評級機構密切合作，確保他們充分掌握這些進展，並全面理解我們的努力。

So with that, I'd like to open the call for questions.

那麼，接下來我想開放提問。

Operator, we're ready for questions now.

接線員，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自 Citi 的 P.J. Juvekar。

Congrats on finishing La Negra 3 and 4. Now that's done, are you looking for new hydroxide convergent capacity either in China or elsewhere? And would you consider building a convergent plant in the U.S.?

恭喜完成 La Negra 3 與 4。既然已完成，你們是否正在尋找新的氫氧化鋰轉換產能，不論是在中國或其他地區？另外，你們會考慮在美國興建轉換工廠嗎？

So P.J., and thanks for that. We are -- so we're -- we've completed construction. We're still commissioning. So still a little bit to go at La Negra. And then as you see in the plans that have the Phase III, it's mostly about hydroxide capacity in the near term. So Kemerton will be coming on in the next year.

P.J.，謝謝你的提問。我們——我們已完成建設，但仍在試車階段，所以 La Negra 還有一些工作要做。接著如你在包含第三期（Phase III）的計畫中所看到的，短期重點主要在氫氧化鋰產能。因此 Kemerton 將在明年投產。

And then the next wave of investments at the moment are focused on China, and we're -- we do look for acquisition of conversion capacity, but it's a bit of a challenge just to find the assets that we want and that are for sale. So you kind of have a meeting of minds there. But we're also in parallel, we're progressing our plans to do greenfield projects as well.

而目前下一波投資重點放在中國；我們也確實在尋找收購轉換產能的機會，但挑戰在於要找到我們想要且願意出售的資產並不容易，因此需要雙方理念契合。不過同時，我們也在並行推進綠地（greenfield）專案的規劃。

And if we were able to find an acquisition, we continue to progress the greenfield plans that we have. So they would be -- they're not -- if we did an acquisition, that doesn't mean we stop our greenfield plans and projects, but we would just do them in parallel. And then the last part -- I'm sorry, a lot about the U.S.

如果我們能找到收購標的，我們仍會持續推進既有的綠地計畫。也就是說，即使進行收購，也不代表我們會停止綠地計畫與專案，而是會並行推動。最後一部分——抱歉，關於美國的部分。

So I mean, we will look at the U.S., but it's not in the next year or so, right? So it's -- there's time. And our view is most of the cathode capacity that's being built and will be producing for the next several years, it's going to be in China or at least Asia. And so we have time before we have to see if we need capacity in North America or Europe.

我的意思是，我們會評估美國，但不會是在接下來一年左右，對吧？所以——還有時間。我們的看法是，未來幾年正在建設並將投產的大部分正極材料（cathode）產能，會在中國或至少在亞洲。因此，在我們必須判斷北美或歐洲是否需要產能之前，還有時間。

Okay. And then next question is, I want to go back to comments that you had made, Kent, I think on the last call, about sort of market segmentation of customers that some customers will have a long-term contract, some will have more market-related contracts, especially customers like those who negotiated prices down in 2019. I was just wondering if either you or Eric could add some color on this sort of market segmentation of customers?

好的。下一個問題，我想回到你上次電話會議中提到的評論，Kent，我記得是關於客戶的市場區隔：有些客戶會採長期合約，有些會採更貼近市場的合約，特別是像那些在 2019 年把價格談下來的客戶。我想請問你或 Eric 是否能就這種客戶市場區隔再補充一些說明？

Sure. So yes, I don't know if we can add much more than we talked about previously, but we're -- in the past, we had kind of a long-term contract formula and it was -- we were trying to use that strategy for all of our customers. And what we've learned is that not all customers want to buy that way. So we're trying to segment on how they want to buy.

當然。是的，我不確定能否比先前談的再多補充，但我們——過去我們有一套偏長期合約的公式，並且——我們嘗試把那個策略套用到所有客戶身上。而我們學到的是，不是所有客戶都想用那種方式採購。因此我們正嘗試依照他們想要的採購方式來做區隔。

And actually, we think it's good for us as well. So we're -- we have longer-term contracts that look more like a fixed price. And ideally, we want those contracts to move with the market but slightly with the market, but it looks more like a long-term contract. On the other extreme, we'll have contracts that look more like spot. They're probably it's not -- probably not a 1-year contract, it's probably more than that, but it moves with the market or closely with the market.

而且我們其實也認為這對我們有利。所以我們——我們會有較長期、看起來更像固定價格的合約。理想上，我們希望這些合約能隨市場變動，但只是部分隨市場變動；整體看起來更像長期合約。另一端，我們會有看起來更像現貨（spot）的合約。它們可能——不會是 1 年期合約，可能更長，但會隨市場或緊貼市場變動。

Still may be dampened a bit and then you'll have some in the middle. Where that shakes out from a portfolio standpoint until we settle all that with our customers. I can't tell you, but for lack of anything else, it's probably 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 is kind of how we see it now.

可能仍會稍微被平滑一些，然後中間還會有一些介於兩者之間的合約。從投資組合角度來看，最終會如何分布，要等我們與客戶把這些都談妥後才知道，我現在無法告訴你。但如果一定要說，目前我們大致的看法是各占三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。

Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

On the delay at Kemerton II, if you're having delays, is the entire industry having significant delays here? I mean, we've got the car companies accelerating their demand plans here as the supply actually going to undershoot what the industry needs?

關於 Kemerton II 的延遲，如果你們遇到延遲，是否整個產業在這裡都出現顯著延遲？我的意思是，我們看到車廠正在加速其需求計畫，而供給實際上是否會低於產業所需？

Well, I can't speak to the other projects. But I mean, if you're building in Western Australia, the availability of labor, the tightness is extreme. And Western Australia is kind of famous for labor market that gets difficult if you're doing large projects just because of the resource industry draws all of the resources if their prices go up and their prices have gone up significantly for to say, iron ore is probably the biggest example, and they're drawing all the resources away.

嗯，我無法評論其他專案。但我的意思是，如果你在西澳洲建廠，勞動力的可得性、緊俏程度非常極端。而西澳洲某種程度上以勞動市場在你做大型專案時變得困難而聞名，因為資源產業在價格上漲時會吸走所有資源；而他們的價格確實大幅上漲，例如鐵礦石可能是最大的例子，於是他們把所有資源都吸走了。

That's always been an issue in Western Australia, but today, we have COVID. So they locked down not only Australia but about state by state. So we can't move -- not only can we not get resources from China or Thailand or even the U.K., we can't get resources from the east part of Australia. So we're kind of stuck with what's in Western Australia. So -- and I think that will affect anyone doing a big capital project in Western Australia or Australia. I'm not sure that it applies, say, in China, for example.

這在西澳洲一直都是個問題，但今天我們又遇到 COVID。所以他們不只封鎖澳洲，還是按州逐一封鎖。因此我們無法調動——不僅無法從中國或泰國甚至英國取得資源，我們也無法從澳洲東部取得資源。所以我們某種程度上只能依賴西澳洲現有的資源。所以——我認為這會影響任何在西澳洲或澳洲進行大型資本專案的人。我不確定這是否適用於例如中國。

Okay. And then when CATL announced it sodium ion battery, all the lithium stocks popped, including Albemarle, is sodium ion is something that we need to pay more attention to?

好的。然後當 CATL 宣布其鈉離子電池時，所有鋰相關股票都上漲了，包括 Albemarle。鈉離子是我們需要更關注的東西嗎？

John, it's Eric. Sorry, as you may know, isn't a new chemistry. The CATLs innovation is on a matrix that may make it more effective. It is a chemistry that is lower energy density, heavier material. So it's applicable probably for the low -- very low end of EV ranges and maybe grid storage. I think one of the attractiveness components of it is -- its sodium is abundant, right? So it's -- so it may alleviate at that low end of the market -- given alternative if lithium supplies become tight as they have been in the past year or so.

John，我是 Eric。抱歉，如你所知，這不是新的化學體系。CATL 的創新是在一種基質（matrix）上，可能讓它更有效。這是一種能量密度較低、材料更重的化學體系。因此它大概適用於電動車續航里程的低端——非常低端——以及可能的電網儲能。我認為它其中一個吸引人的部分是——鈉很豐富，對吧？所以——如果鋰供應像過去一年左右那樣變得緊張，它可能在市場低端提供替代方案、緩解壓力。

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Bob Koort。

Kent, I was wondering you mentioned that La Negra's completed, takes 6 months to commission. Is that a function of just the qualifying process? And can you inventory production while you're doing that and then have a nice buffer of inventory to start selling from as soon as the qualification is complete? Or is it a function of making sure the process works properly?

Kent，我想請教你提到 La Negra 已完工，投產（commission）需要 6 個月。這只是因為認證（qualifying）流程的關係嗎？在此期間你們能否先累積庫存產出，等認證完成後就能用一個不錯的庫存緩衝立即開始銷售？還是說這是為了確保製程能正常運作？

It's both. So we're commissioning and qualifying in parallel. So we can kind of -- we do early commissioning to get qualification samples, but the plant has not been operating at rates so that it takes us time to get it to operating at rates. So we -- kind of long pole in the tent, so to speak, is the qualification process, but we're commissioning during that same time, and we run them in parallel so that we -- to save time. So it's -- I think the answer is both.

兩者都有。所以我們在投產與認證是並行進行。我們可以——先做早期投產以取得認證樣品，但工廠尚未以額定產能運轉，因此需要時間把它拉升到額定運轉水準。所以我們——打個比方，帳篷裡最長的那根桿子——是認證流程，但我們也在同一時間進行投產，兩者並行以節省時間。所以——我想答案是兩者皆是。

Okay. And on Wodgina we've seen some pretty spectacular spot prices out there, some north of $1,000. When do you turn that on? And -- do you imagine that would ever feed the Kemerton plants? Or will you feed Kemerton through Talison for the foreseeable future?

好的。關於 Wodgina，我們看到現貨價格相當驚人，有些超過 1,000 美元。你們什麼時候會把它啟動？另外——你們是否認為它會供料給 Kemerton 工廠？還是說在可預見的未來你們會透過 Talison 供料給 Kemerton？

Yes. So yes, we'll see how that goes. I mean our plans are to feed Kemerton from Talison. And then as we either bring on other capacity or do an acquisition, we would use Wodgina for that. and our strategy about selling spodumene hasn't changed.

是的。所以，是的，我們會看看進展如何。我的意思是，我們的計畫是由 Talison 供料給 Kemerton。然後當我們啟用其他產能或進行收購時，我們會把 Wodgina 用於那部分。而我們關於銷售鋰輝石（spodumene）的策略沒有改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edlain Rodriguez。

A quick one on bromine. So you've talked about the chlorine issue you have in there. Like when do you expect that to correct itself?

關於溴（bromine）我有個簡短問題。你們提到那邊有氯（chlorine）方面的問題。你們預期何時會修正回來？

So I'll start and Netha can add a little bit. So -- and I think there's a broader issue in the chlorine space, but I mean our suppliers had some equipment failures, and we expect that to last -- they're telling us a couple of months, right? So they've got a short-term fix. We hope we'll get us back up to some higher rates and then the permanent fix is going to take kind of -- I think they told us 2 to 3 months.

我先回答，Netha 也可以補充一些。——我想氯的領域有更廣泛的問題，但我們的供應商有一些設備故障，我們預期會持續——他們告訴我們是幾個月，對吧？所以他們有一個短期修復方案。我們希望這能讓我們回到較高的運轉率，然後永久性修復將需要——我想他們告訴我們大約 2 到 3 個月。

As we look at the broader chlorine market, we think there'll be opportunities to get it back in balance by Q4 that we're hopeful for that.

就更廣泛的氯市場來看，我們認為到第四季（Q4）有機會讓市場回到平衡，我們對此抱持希望。

Okay. Makes sense. Another one. Like in terms of M&A, like -- you've done the FCS deal. So you monetize that. But when you look at the rest of the portfolio, like is there anything else in there that you think might be better with somebody else? No? Can you talk about the rest of the portfolio, what you see in there?

好的，明白。再一個問題。就併購（M&A）而言——你們做了 FCS 交易，也把它變現了。但當你們看其餘投資組合時——裡面還有沒有任何你們認為交給別人會更好？沒有嗎？你能談談其餘投資組合、你們看到的情況嗎？

Yes. So we -- I mean we were looking at our PCS business and we ran a process and we didn't get the pricing we wanted for it. So it's performing well, and we've pulled back -- that is no longer for sale, and we're running as part of the portfolio. We're running as part of our catalyst business. So we'll hold on to that. And then for the broader part of the portfolio, the 3 primary businesses, bromine, lithium and catalyst. We see those as core businesses. So that's kind of our fundamental portfolio and now PCS is part of Catalyst.

是的。所以我們——我的意思是，我們曾檢視 PCS 業務並跑了一個流程，但沒有拿到我們想要的價格。所以它表現良好，而我們已經收回——它不再出售，並且我們把它作為投資組合的一部分來營運。我們把它作為我們催化劑（catalyst）業務的一部分來營運。所以我們會保留它。至於更廣泛的投資組合，三大主要業務是溴、鋰與催化劑。我們把這些視為核心業務。所以這就是我們的基本投資組合，而現在 PCS 也成為催化劑的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

My first question, I'll follow up on spot. I mean, you as we've seen pretty interesting surges in spodumene prices in the last bunch of weeks. I know there's lags on contracts and stuff. But I think if we also -- it seems like conversion margin, the proxy conversion margins have been extremely strong.

我的第一個問題，我想延續現貨（spot）的話題。我的意思是，正如我們看到的，過去幾週鋰輝石（spodumene）價格出現相當有趣的飆升。我知道合約之類會有滯後。但我想如果我們也——看起來轉換利潤（conversion margin），也就是代理轉換利潤，一直非常強勁。

So are those -- as carbon hydroxide prices have been really strong. So do you see the spodumene price increases more of a lagging indicator? Or do you think that they're setting off to be another run-up in spot prices sparked up lithium derivative prices?

所以——由於碳酸鋰與氫氧化鋰價格一直很強。你認為鋰輝石價格上漲更像是一個落後指標嗎？還是你認為它們正在引發另一波現貨價格上行，而這波上行是由鋰衍生品價格帶動的？

Look, I'll make a broad comment and let Eric can try a little bit of detail. It's hard for us to project where the market is going. And we see prices both spodumene and carbonate and hydroxide prices being up. The only place you really have visibility of spot prices is in China for the carbonated hydroxide. And so you see that. You see the same numbers that we do. Those have not fully translated into the contract prices, but we do see contract prices moving up.

聽著，我先做一個概括性的評論，然後讓 Eric 補充一些細節。我們很難預測市場會走向何方。我們看到鋰輝石以及碳酸鋰、氫氧化鋰的價格都在上漲。你真正能看到現貨價格透明度的地方只有中國的碳酸鋰與氫氧化鋰。因此你會看到那些價格。你看到的數字和我們看到的一樣。這些尚未完全反映到合約價格中，但我們確實看到合約價格正在上移。

And spodumene, I mean, it has gone up, come back down a little bit. I don't know that we're in what you would call a super cycle or headed toward that. But I think -- I do think prices will be higher than they have been in the last couple of years.

至於鋰輝石，我的意思是，它已經上漲，之後又稍微回落。我不知道我們是否處於你所謂的超級循環（super cycle）或正朝那方向走。但我確實認為——價格會高於過去幾年的水準。

Yes, Joel, what I would -- this is -- and I think your question reflects this. This is a China market phenomenon. The China market is very dependent for its growth on imported spodumene. So -- and there is a shortfall of available supply to meet demand given the rapid growth post pandemic, particularly in carbonate in China. So in that regard, maybe spodumene is a bit of a lead because it's the short supply.

是的，Joel，我想說的是——而且我認為你的問題也反映了這點——這是一個中國市場現象。中國市場的成長非常依賴進口鋰輝石。所以——在疫情後快速成長的背景下，特別是在中國的碳酸鋰方面，為了滿足需求，可用供應出現缺口。因此在這個意義上，也許鋰輝石有點像領先指標，因為它是供應短缺的一端。

But I think what we expect to happen is more supply to come into China from other parts of the world. We've seen prices go up and stay up with demand. It's hard to say what's going to happen with spodumene prices. From an Albemarle perspective, the way we take advantage of that is we don't sell spodumene or that's right, we don't sell chemical grade spodumene to say we sell a specialty spodumene for the glass market.

但我認為我們預期會發生的是，會有更多供應從世界其他地區進入中國。我們看到價格隨著需求上升並維持在高位。很難說鋰輝石價格接下來會怎麼走。從 Albemarle 的角度，我們利用這一點的方式是我們不賣鋰輝石——或者更精確地說，我們不賣化工級鋰輝石；我們賣的是用於玻璃市場的特種鋰輝石。

But for us, it's tolling. So you've heard us talk about looking at tolling opportunities, and that's part of our improved guidance. And for that, we're able to participate in that spot price market, which is, as I've said earlier, very favorable.

但對我們而言，是代工（tolling）。所以你們聽過我們談到尋找代工機會，而那也是我們上調指引的一部分。透過這種方式，我們能參與現貨價格市場；正如我先前所說，這個市場非常有利。

So my follow-up would be just looking out to 2022 for LCE volume increases, I think you talked about maybe gaining about 30,000 tonnes LCE volume for next year with the different expansion ramping on. Kemerton II has delayed a few months maybe you've been pushing it a little more tolling now this year. Is it about 30,000 tonnes still the right number to think about for next year?

所以我接續想問的是，展望 2022 年 LCE 產量增加，我想你們談到明年隨著不同擴產逐步爬坡，可能會增加約 30,000 噸 LCE 產量。Kemerton II 延後了幾個月，也許你們今年把更多量轉去做代工（tolling）。那麼，明年仍以約 30,000 噸作為正確的估算數字嗎？

So Joel, I mean, I think it's -- you have to break it down. First of all, I don't think we've said 30,000 tonnes. We've talked about ramp rates on plants. So the Kemerton plant with a start-up in the early part of next year, there is a 3-month delay to the second unit. We've talked about getting to full run rate capacity by the end of the second year in that facility.

所以 Joel，我的意思是，我認為——你必須把它拆開來看。首先，我不認為我們說過 30,000 噸。我們談的是工廠的爬坡速率。因此，Kemerton 工廠在明年初投產，第二條產線延後 3 個月。我們談到的是在該設施的第二年年底達到滿載運轉產能。

Similarly, in carbonate, you'd see a phenomenon that is somewhat like that. I would say our run rate for carbonate by the end of '22 will probably be at the 30,000-run rate basis at the end of the year, that ramps. It's a little bit different, ramping brine versus spodumene because brine is obviously a harvested material versus a fixed input.

同樣地，在碳酸鋰方面，你會看到某種程度上類似的現象。我會說，我們在 2022 年底的碳酸鋰運轉率，可能會在年底達到以 30,000 噸年化運轉率為基礎的水準，並逐步爬坡。這有點不同，鹵水的爬坡與鋰輝石不同，因為鹵水顯然是採收型材料，而不是固定投入。

But that roughly should -- between those 2 should be able to calculate sort of our guidance. The change would be a slight delay at Kemerton. And then a year-on-year growth that we can achieve in tolling. And that's going to be -- it's harder for us to predict now because it's a function of what's available in the market for us to toll with.

但大致上——在這兩者之間，你應該能夠計算出我們的指引。變化會是 Kemerton 略有延遲。然後是我們在代工（tolling）方面可以達成的年對年成長。而那將會——現在對我們來說更難預測，因為它取決於市場上可供我們代工處理的原料有多少。

Yes. It's also a function of how fast we ramp up, right, so how well commissioning goes. And then there's -- when you'll commission, you'll be able to make products, but at lower rates, and that will ramp up over time, and it's how well we do in that ramp curve. And it's hard to speculate on that.

是的。這也取決於我們爬坡的速度，對吧，也就是試車（commissioning）進行得多順利。然後還有——當你完成試車後，你就能生產產品，但會以較低的速率，之後會隨時間拉升，而這取決於我們在那條爬坡曲線上做得多好。這很難去推測。

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great. I guess I just wanted to get your thoughts. We've had some differing views, I guess, maybe you could just provide your color on spodumene, carbonate and hydroxide. Spodumene, obviously, there was some oversupply in years past, but it seems like most of that is slowly working itself out. Maybe you can just characterize supply and demand in each of those areas?

很好。我想我只是想聽聽你們的看法。我們看到一些不同的觀點，我想也許你可以就鋰輝石、碳酸鋰與氫氧化鋰提供一些你們的觀察。鋰輝石顯然在過去幾年曾有供給過剩，但看起來大部分正在慢慢消化。你能否就這三個領域各自的供需狀況做個描述？

Okay. And again, I'll start. Eric can fill in where I miss things. But I think in the past, the industry is growing, right? So as the industry grows, you bring on capacity, it's a smaller percentage of the industry. So I don't think we're going to have those periods of oversupply, undersupply is tight, as they were in the past with the extremes showing up in pricing.

好的。而且我再一次先說，Eric 可以補充我遺漏的部分。但我認為過去產業是在成長，對吧？因此當產業成長時，你新增產能在整個產業中的占比會更小。所以我不認為我們會再出現像過去那樣的供給過剩、供給不足那種緊縮時期，以及價格上出現的極端波動。

So I think that applies across for hard rock as well as kind of the salt -- conversion capacity for the salt. So I think as the industry gets bigger, each addition is a smaller percentage of the total industry, it has less of an impact. That said, where we are, I mean, spodumene is tight. And I think that the conversion capacity as the growth rates that we see, which you kind of see in as an indicator, EV sales is the forward-looking growth curve for lithium.

所以我認為這同樣適用於硬岩以及鹽湖——鹽湖的轉換產能。也就是說，隨著產業規模變大，每一次新增的占比都更小，影響也更小。話雖如此，就目前而言，我的意思是，鋰輝石很緊俏。而且我認為轉換產能在我們看到的成長率下——你可以把電動車銷售視為鋰的前瞻性成長曲線指標——也相當吃緊。

Those are pretty tight and you've got to make investments, and you've got to be good at executing those projects and commissioning them and then ramping them up to full capacity, which is we think we're good at that, but we're in the process of proving it.

這些都非常緊俏，你必須投資，而且你必須擅長執行這些專案、完成試車（commissioning），然後把產能爬坡到滿載。我們認為我們擅長這些，但我們正在過程中證明它。

And I would just add, Arun, that today, as we sit here today, all 3 are extremely tight. If we had more carbonate that we could produce and sell, we could sell it readily, same with hydroxide. We don't have the disadvantage. We have the ability. We have idle capacity on the spodumene side. So we are not feedstock limited.

我再補充一下，Arun，就今天此刻而言，這三者都極度緊俏。如果我們能生產並銷售更多碳酸鋰，我們可以很容易賣掉；氫氧化鋰也是一樣。我們沒有劣勢。我們有能力。我們在鋰輝石端有閒置產能，所以我們不受原料限制。

That's a strength we have going forward. What we're limited on is our ability to get conversion capacity in the ground quickly. So -- and that's part of our plan for next year. As to the long term, my guess would be that our view would be, I should say, that hydroxide will probably see the higher rate of growth going forward off a smaller base.

這是我們未來的一項優勢。我們受限的是把轉換產能快速落地的能力。所以——這也是我們明年計畫的一部分。至於長期，我的猜測是，我們的看法應該是——我應該說——氫氧化鋰未來可能會在較小的基礎上看到更高的成長率。

Carbonate has done well in the near term based upon the LFP trend for lower-end vehicles, particularly in China, and we see that starting to take root in some other regions as well for the low end. But the key to high EV penetration is higher energy density. And the key to that is hydroxide and ultimately, potentially solid-state chemistries. So that's going to require a heavier burden on hydroxide. We see that being the tighter market on a long-term basis going forward.

碳酸鋰在短期內表現不錯，主要受 LFP 趨勢帶動，用於較低階車款，特別是在中國；我們也看到這個趨勢開始在其他地區的低階市場扎根。但要達到高電動車滲透率的關鍵是更高的能量密度，而其關鍵是氫氧化鋰，最終可能還包括固態電池化學體系。因此這將對氫氧化鋰帶來更大的需求負擔。我們認為從長期來看，氫氧化鋰將是更緊俏的市場。

Great. And just wondering if there's any concern from elevated logistics costs for the next little while, also, maybe you can just address if there's any concerns on the container shortage issue?

很好。另外想問，接下來一段時間物流成本居高不下是否有任何疑慮？也請你談談是否擔心貨櫃短缺的問題？

Well, I think across all of our businesses, the supply chain is a challenge and a concern. So oceangoing freight probably the biggest, but well, chemicals supply in the U.S. is hitting us and particularly chlorine at the moment, but it's tight in a number of chemicals, but oceangoing freight is a big concern for us and something that we are working pretty hard to try to manage. We spent a lot of time trying to streamline that supply chain, digitize it, so we have much better visibility on it. So we're making progress on that, but it's still a concern.

嗯，我認為在我們所有業務中，供應鏈都是一項挑戰與疑慮。遠洋運費可能是最大的，但——嗯——美國的化學品供應也正在影響我們，尤其是目前的氯（chlorine），而且多種化學品都很吃緊；但遠洋運費對我們來說是一大疑慮，也是我們正非常努力設法管理的事情。我們花了很多時間試圖精簡供應鏈、將其數位化，讓我們能有更好的可視性。我們在這方面有進展，但仍然是一項疑慮。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

If I could just ask in bromine, it doesn't sound like in either your sort of electronic sales or your auto sales that you're seeing any real volume issues from the shortage of Microchip. So is that just something that it's either being offset by other parts of the business or it's just not an issue either year-to-date or into the back half of the year?

如果我可以問一下，在溴素（bromine）方面，聽起來無論是你們的電子相關銷售或汽車相關銷售，你們都沒有因微晶片短缺而看到任何實質的出貨量問題。所以這是因為被業務的其他部分抵消了，還是說無論是年初至今或今年下半年都不是問題？

Yes, Vincent, from where we sit in the supply chain, we're not seeing that at all and from a demand side, our demand in those areas have been steady.

是的，Vincent，從我們在供應鏈中的位置來看，我們完全沒有看到那種情況；從需求端來看，我們在那些領域的需求一直很穩定。

Okay. Great. And if I could just ask, you have the Analyst Day coming up and you're also concurrently working on the Wave III projects and looking to move forward thus. I mean, should we be expecting a material update on those at the Analyst Day? Or are those 2 events unique?

好的，很好。如果我再問一下，你們即將舉辦分析師日，同時也在推進 Wave III 專案並希望往前推進。我的意思是，我們是否應該在分析師日期待這些事項有重大更新？還是這兩件事彼此獨立？

So a material update. I'd say it depends on the definition. So we'll give you progress on where we are, but we're not -- but we're still in the planning phase. We're not moving dirt on any of the projects yet.

所以，重大更新——我會說取決於你怎麼定義。我們會向你們說明目前的進度，但我們仍在規劃階段。我們還沒有在任何專案上動土。

Okay. So no FID -- we shouldn't be expecting an FID decisions then?

好的。所以沒有 FID——我們不應該期待會有 FID 決策，對嗎？

No. I mean we're progressing as we go, and we'll tell you the plans that we have, but it's not a -- we will not have a final investment decision by -- in a month.

對。我的意思是我們會持續推進，我們會告訴你們我們的計畫，但這不是——我們不會在——一個月內做出最終投資決策。

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自 Deutsche Bank 的 David Begleiter。

Eric, a couple of questions for you. Just on lithium pricing in Q3. Is your guidance for that pricing to be up year-over-year in Q3?

Eric，我有幾個問題想問你。先談第三季的鋰價。你們的指引是否表示第三季價格將年增？

Yes. The second half, we were down 10% to recount a little history here to put it in perspective. We're down 10% across the board in the first quarter, 4% in the second quarter, and we're saying flat for the year. So it will be up year-over-year. Another way to think about our lowest price point over the past 24 months or including the rest of this year, so over 2020 and 2021, we expect to be the fourth quarter of last year.

是的。下半年——我稍微回顧一下歷史以便放在脈絡中——第一季我們整體年減 10%，第二季年減 4%，而我們說全年持平。因此第三季將會年增。換個方式想，在過去 24 個月（包含今年剩餘時間）也就是 2020 與 2021 年之間，我們預期最低的價格點會出現在去年第四季。

And ever since then, we sort of bottomed and we're seeing as spot prices move up for that small amount of our business is exposed to that, such as battery grade in China or tech grade. And as concessions to contracts given during the height of the pandemic roll off, we see those prices rising in -- into the second half of this year. And given the tightness in the market, we expect into next year as well.

而自那之後，我們大致已觸底；隨著現貨價格上升，我們有少部分業務曝險於現貨，例如中國的電池級或技術級產品。並且，疫情高峰期給予合約的讓利（concessions）逐步到期後，我們看到價格在今年下半年走升。鑑於市場的緊俏，我們也預期明年會延續。

Very good. And also, there's been some progress on a DLE project near your operations in Southern Arkansas. Can you discuss the viability of a DLE project for you guys in Southern Arkansas going forward?

非常好。另外，在你們位於阿肯色州南部的營運附近，有一個 DLE 專案也取得了一些進展。你能談談未來在阿肯色州南部推動你們 DLE 專案的可行性嗎？

Well, yes, so I'll say that for us, we continue to look at Magnolia brines, where we operate our bromine operation as being a spot where we could process lithium and DLE's a potential technology for that. DLE, just -- it's a bandied-about term, most often here in the U.S. with many of the projects, what they're talking about is absorption resins.

嗯，是的。我會說，對我們而言，我們持續把 Magnolia 鹵水（我們溴業務的營運所在地）視為一個可能處理鋰的地點，而 DLE 是一項潛在可用的技術。DLE 這個詞——只是個被廣泛使用的術語；在美國這裡，許多專案談到的多半是吸附樹脂。

And so it's a mechanical operation for extracting brines. It's a mechanical operation as opposed to an evaporation effort such as we do in Chile, that you would only apply if you have to apply, meaning if you apply it to resource that are of lower quality or have higher impurities present, which is generally true with both oilfield brines, which is what we have in Magnolia, or geothermal brines.

因此它是一種用於萃取鹵水的機械式作業。這是一種機械式作業，而不是像我們在智利所做的那種蒸發法；通常只有在不得不使用時才會採用，也就是說，當你面對品質較低或雜質較高的資源時才會用，而這一般同時適用於油田鹵水（也就是我們在 Magnolia 擁有的）或地熱鹵水。

So it's more intensive. It actually also consumes a lot more water and energy given the -- so it has some drawbacks from it. We're studying what alternatives we could deploy to a resource like that, that could include absorption that optimize those factors of cost and sustainability.

所以它更為密集。實際上，考量到——它也會消耗更多的水與能源，因此確實有一些缺點。我們正在研究可在這類資源上部署哪些替代方案，其中可能包括吸附技術，以最佳化成本與永續性等因素。

Given where we are with our high-quality resources and then what we can do in the year to drive our growth in the next 5 years, we put that as a resource later in the decade that we would consider for that given those technical challenges and given its cost profile.

就我們目前擁有的高品質資源，以及未來一年內我們能做些什麼來推動未來 5 年的成長而言，我們把這項資源視為本十年後期才會考慮的選項，原因是存在這些技術挑戰以及其成本結構。

Yes. And I would just add, so we've -- we didn't -- that wasn't included in our Phase III but it's something that we look at. We're looking at the technology. We have access to the brines and we have the operation. We're already kind of pumping the brines around. So we'd be in a good position to leverage it if we think that get the technology right, and we believe the cost position is right. But it's something that comes probably in Phase IV if we get that technology right.

是的。我再補充一下：我們——我們沒有——那並未納入我們的第三期（Phase III），但這是我們會關注的事情。我們正在評估這項技術。我們可以取得這些鹵水，也有現成的營運；我們本來就某種程度上在抽送鹵水。因此，如果我們認為技術能做到位，且我們相信成本位置合適，我們會處於很好的位置去加以運用。但如果技術能做到位，這可能會是在第四期（Phase IV）才會發生的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your Talison operation in equity income in lithium, sometimes you earn $30 million and sometimes you earn $15 million or $16 million. What's the difference between the two? And we've had some 15s and 16s. Are there any 30s to come?

你們在 Talison 的營運中，鋰業務的權益法收益有時是 3,000 萬美元，有時是 1,500 萬或 1,600 萬美元。兩者差異是什麼？而我們最近出現了一些 1,500 萬和 1,600 萬的數字。接下來還會有 3,000 萬的情況嗎？

Jeff, this is Scott. So the equity income in Talison is affected by 2 things. One is the volume that's being shipped both to ourselves as well as to Tianqi, our partner. And of course, that has been either flat or rising over time. The bigger impact that you're seeing through the equity income is coming from the transfer price, which is affected by that -- by the spodumene market price that's out there.

Jeff，我是 Scott。Talison 的權益法收益受兩個因素影響。第一是出貨量，包含出給我們自己以及出給我們的合作夥伴天齊（Tianqi）。當然，這個量隨時間不是持平就是上升。你在權益法收益上看到的更大影響，來自移轉價格（transfer price），而移轉價格又受到——也就是受到外部鋰輝石（spodumene）市場價格的影響。

So when that price is high, you're going to see a higher equity income. When it's lower, you'll see a lower equity income. And generally, that's going to track on about a 6-month lag to the market indicators that are out there. So as we've talked about in some of the prior questions, because the spodumene price is higher or going higher right now, you should expect in the second half that, that equity income would also track to that.

因此當那個價格高時，你會看到較高的權益法收益；當價格較低時，你會看到較低的權益法收益。一般而言，這大約會以 6 個月的落後期跟隨市場指標。因此如同我們在前面一些問題中談到的，由於鋰輝石價格目前較高或正在走高，你應該預期下半年權益法收益也會隨之反映。

You should just keep in mind, though, that then our input cost for conversion goes up when that price goes up. So we don't really -- it doesn't matter so much to us because it's all -- it washes through. But it's the difference between equity income and what shows up in the lithium P&L.

不過你也要記得，當那個價格上升時，我們的轉換（conversion）投入成本也會上升。所以對我們而言其實——影響沒那麼大，因為整體——會相互抵銷。但差異會體現在權益法收益與鋰事業損益表（lithium P&L）中呈現的數字之間。

Then for my follow-up, I think over the past several years, if you had to describe the contractual terms of your long-term lithium contracts. I think you would have said that they were above market. Given the changes in the lithium market and its tightness or snugness, is it now the case that your long-term contracts are more comparable to current prices?

那我的追問是：過去幾年，如果要你描述你們長期鋰合約的合約條款，我想你會說它們高於市場。鑑於鋰市場的變化以及其緊俏程度，現在是否可以說你們的長期合約價格更接近目前的價格？

It depends on what you call -- yes, I think it depends on what you're calling current prices. So if you're talking about spot prices in China, which is what everyone can see, that's probably correct. But I think if you were to think about contract prices over time -- contract prices outside of China that different suppliers have, it's probably in line or above those, I would say probably still above those.

這取決於你所說的——是的，我想這取決於你所稱的「目前價格」是什麼。如果你指的是中國的現貨價格，也就是大家都看得到的那個，可能是對的。但如果你看的是一段時間以來——中國以外不同供應商的合約價格，我會說大致相當或高於那些，我認為可能仍然高於那些。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Kallo with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Just maybe 2 on the lithium and then one on bromine. Lithium, you get this question a lot, but just on recycling, we saw Redwood materials raised a large sum of money. I want to understand how you see the players in the recycling as they either work with you or competitors, is number one.

我這邊可能兩個關於鋰，然後一個關於溴。先談鋰：你們常被問到這個問題，但關於回收，我們看到 Redwood Materials 募集了一大筆資金。我想了解你們如何看待回收領域的玩家：他們是與你們合作，還是競爭對手？這是第一點。

Number two, on the Tesla call, and then -- and I think before that, Musk was talking about the LFP and the increase there. And I just wanted to understand, I think you talked a little bit about this, but how you make investments into carbonate versus hydroxide with that background, looking like there's a large increase in demand for LFP?

第二點，在特斯拉（Tesla）的電話會議上，然後——我想在那之前，Musk 談到 LFP 以及其增長。我想了解，在這樣的背景下，看起來 LFP 的需求會大幅增加，你們如何在碳酸鋰（carbonate）與氫氧化鋰（hydroxide）之間做投資決策？我知道你們稍早有提到一些。

And then on bromine, just how comfortable you are around the timing of the expansion? And I think it's really chemical expanded already earlier. So I just want to see how strong do you think that market is for bringing on new capacity?

然後關於溴，你們對擴產時程的把握程度如何？我想化學品那邊之前已經擴產了。所以我只是想了解，你們認為市場有多強勁，足以支撐新增產能的投放？

Ben, this is Eric. On recycling, recycling is happening around the world. And so the companies you're referring to are largely here in the U.S. There's a set of companies similarly in Europe. It's a regional business model because of the collection and nature of different regulations around the world.

Ben，我是 Eric。關於回收，回收正在全球各地發生。你提到的那些公司主要在美國。歐洲也有一批類似的公司。這是一種區域性的商業模式，因為牽涉到回收收集，以及全球各地不同的法規環境。

As a global player, we're engaged with all of these companies. We view them in almost every case as a partner, not a competitor. And we bring process technology and know-how that -- what we deploy in some of our existing virgin brine operations that could be a partnership approach to helping to remove the lithium and/or take a byproduct that comes out of their operations, which is lithium rich.

作為一家全球性參與者，我們與所有這些公司都有互動。在幾乎所有情況下，我們把他們視為合作夥伴，而不是競爭對手。我們帶來製程技術與專業知識——也就是我們在一些既有原生鹵水（virgin brine）營運中所部署的能力——可以透過合作方式協助移除鋰，和／或處理他們營運中產出的副產品，而那通常是富含鋰的。

So that's the way we work with them. You have to remember, a lot of these companies got set up, and this is -- and then Europe is ahead on this, largely to go after the nickel and the cobalt not lithium. Lithium is usually the byproduct of the recycling operation, that's where we fit in. And so as we look at trying to partner with our customers and drive their success from a sustainability standpoint, we view this as an important part of the value mix we bring is helping them recycle the lithium and recycle it back to them for their continued growth.

這就是我們與他們合作的方式。你必須記得，許多這類公司成立——而且這點在歐洲更早——主要是為了回收鎳與鈷，而不是鋰。鋰通常是回收作業的副產品，而這正是我們能切入的地方。因此，當我們尋求與客戶合作並從永續角度推動他們成功時，我們認為這是我們所帶來價值組合中的重要一環：協助他們回收鋰，並把回收的鋰再回供給他們，以支持其持續成長。

On the Tesla side, we view what Tesla has described as very -- generally very consistent with our market outlook. It's going to continue to shift, and I think, expand, meaning the size of the EV market, which by 2025 might be at one level, but by 2030, I think you're going to have a larger proportion of vehicles that are electrified. Some news out about -- some intentions around that here in the U.S. today.

在特斯拉方面，我們認為特斯拉所描述的內容與我們的市場展望大致非常一致。市場將持續轉變，我也認為會擴大，也就是電動車市場的規模；到 2025 可能在某個水準，但到 2030，我認為電動化車輛的占比會更高。今天在美國這裡也有一些相關的消息——一些意向。

And for the lower end, LFP is the applicable technology. I mean it gives you a lower range. We still believe, though, that for the mid and the higher range vehicles, you're going to need -- in order to get -- you need higher energy density to get the range. And you can drive good cost if you can get good technology and then get the cost per kilowatt hour down, you don't get the kilowatt hours up per unit weight. So that's the mix we see. And it's very consistent the way Tesla is approaching the market as well.

而在較低端市場，LFP 是適用的技術。它的續航里程較低。我們仍然相信，不過，對於中端與高端車款，你將需要——為了達到——你需要更高的能量密度來取得續航。若能有好的技術並把每千瓦時成本降下來，你就能達到不錯的成本表現；你不會讓每單位重量的千瓦時數上升。這就是我們看到的組合。而這也與特斯拉切入市場的方式非常一致。

Turn it over to Netha for bromine.

把溴的部分交給 Netha。

If you talk about the timing of our bromine expansions, I think we feel really good about the markets that we participate in and their projections over the next few years. And we're really just executing the company's strategy, building capabilities to accelerate lower capital intensity, higher return growth.

如果談到我們溴擴產的時程，我想我們對所參與的市場以及未來幾年的預測感到非常有信心。我們基本上是在執行公司的策略，建立能力以加速資本強度較低、報酬較高的成長。

And for us, what we're doing it at is Magnolia. And that's a great place for us to do it because we have great jurisdiction. We've been there for over 50 years. We know the asset well and we can produce every product that we make out of that facility. So that leads us to have high confidence in those projects, and the timing of execution. And we feel really good about the plan there and our ability to deliver what we want out of those expansion projects.

對我們而言，我們是在 Magnolia 進行這件事。那對我們是個很好的地點，因為那裡的司法管轄環境很好。我們在那裡已經超過 50 年。我們非常了解該資產，而且我們可以在那座廠生產我們所製造的每一種產品。因此，這讓我們對這些專案及其執行時程具有高度信心。我們對那裡的計畫以及我們交付擴產專案所期望成果的能力都感到非常有把握。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Matthew DeYoe。

So as you ramp Talison to meet Kemerton demand, what do you expect your partner to do? I know they have their own kind of hydroxide plans. Those have been pushed a bit. Do you expect Talison output to increase by the 50,000 metric tons you're going to need? Or will it be closer to 100,000 metric tons? And just how do you see that timeline playing out, can you move as fast as you think you'll need if it's a joint discussion versus your singular desires, I guess?

那麼，當你們提升 Talison 產量以滿足 Kemerton 需求時，你預期你們的合作夥伴會怎麼做？我知道他們也有自己的氫氧化鋰計畫，那些計畫有些延後。你預期 Talison 的產出會增加到你們所需的 50,000 公噸嗎？還是會更接近 100,000 公噸？另外，你怎麼看這個時程會如何展開——如果這是合資雙方共同討論，而不是只依你們單方面的意願，你們還能像你們認為需要的那樣快地推進嗎？

Yes. Well, it's definitely a joint discussion. It's a JV. And I think we'll optimize the supply. So the product at Talison our portion or half of that with spodumene that's ours. But we have JV product at Wodgina. They have their own product in other parts of Australia, and we'll swap product to kind of optimize economics. I think the way you would think about it as Talison goes to feed our portion and then some other product feeds their portion at Kemerton. However, physically, it probably won't work that way. We'll swap product to optimize the economics.

是的。嗯，這絕對是共同討論。這是一個合資企業（JV）。我想我們會去最佳化供應。因此，Talison 的產品中，我們的份額或其中一半是屬於我們的鋰輝石（spodumene）。但我們在 Wodgina 也有合資產品。他們在澳洲其他地區也有自己的產品，我們會透過產品互換來最佳化經濟效益。我認為你可以這樣理解：Talison 會供應我們的份額，然後其他產品供應他們在 Kemerton 的份額。不過在實際物流上，可能不會完全照這樣運作。我們會透過互換產品來最佳化經濟效益。

I guess I meant more what you expect Tianqi to do versus (inaudible) this time. I have a question about this.

我想我更想問的是，你預期天齊會怎麼做，相對於（聽不清）這次。我對這點有個問題。

This is Eric jumping in. We can't predict what Tiangi is going to do. I mean they have some public statements out there around their Kwinana facility, which is really very -- in terms of its potential over time, similar in size to Kemerton, at least our first investment in Kemerton. And the JV is owned by the 2 of us. So it produces a budget to what we need.

我是 Eric 插話一下。我們無法預測天齊會怎麼做。我的意思是，他們對外有一些關於其 Kwinana 設施的公開說法，就其長期潛力而言，規模其實非常——至少與 Kemerton 相近，至少與我們在 Kemerton 的第一期投資相近。而這個合資企業是由我們兩方共同持有，所以它會依我們的需求編列預算。

So you really need to talk about what's on the ground there CGP1 and CGP2. We feel with CGP2 being fully ramped, we'll meet the needs of what we have invested in and allow us to ramp at Kemerton. And if they don't have the need on their side, they won't take their share, right, is how it comes down to it. So that's how it works. We're always entitled to at least 50%. It could be of what's available. It could be more if they don't need to take more and vice versa on the other side.

所以你真的需要談的是現場的 CGP1 和 CGP2。我們認為，當 CGP2 完全爬坡到位後，就能滿足我們已投資項目的需求，並讓我們能在 Kemerton 進行爬坡。如果他們那一側沒有需求，他們就不會提取他們的份額，對吧，最後就是這樣運作的。所以機制就是如此。我們始終至少有權取得 50%。那可能是可供量中的 50%，如果他們不需要多拿，則我們可能拿到更多；反之亦然。

Okay. And if I could just follow up. So the new pricing approach you talked about, I understand it's still in the works. But theoretically, I guess, if you were to look over the last cycle, maybe peaks in 2018 and trough more in 2020. Can you provide some context as to like how much your realized price would have been higher in 2018 had you chosen this path versus how much lower you would have been in 2020?

好的。如果我可以再追問一下。關於你提到的新定價方式，我理解仍在研議中。但理論上，如果回看上一個週期，例如 2018 年的高點與 2020 年較低的谷底，你能否提供一些背景：如果當時採用這條路徑，你們在 2018 年的實現價格（realized price）會高多少？而在 2020 年又會低多少？

Like how much higher are the peaks and how much lower were the trough? I would imagine some sort of analysis has been done to kind of get a sense for if this was a net winner or a loser over time?

也就是說，高點會高多少、低點會低多少？我想應該做過某種分析，來大致判斷長期來看這會是淨贏家還是淨輸家？

Yes. So we've not done analysis that we can share about what our price would have been under the new model. But you're right, it would have been higher toward the peak and lower during the trough. So which is the point we're trying to move a little bit more with the market but not expose ourselves fully to the commodity price.

是的。所以我們沒有做過可以對外分享的分析，來說明在新模式下我們的價格會是多少。但你說得對，在高點附近會更高、在谷底期間會更低。這正是我們想要做的：讓價格更貼近市場一些，但又不要讓自己完全暴露在商品價格之下。

But I don't have the numbers to share with you to exactly what it would be. And the other part of that question, which we don't really know the answer to is how is the portfolio, what does it look like? How much of that bot-type pricing will we end up with versus that long-term contract pricing. Because during the last peak and bottom they were pretty much -- were all on the long-term contracts.

但我沒有可以跟你分享的具體數字。這個問題的另一部分——我們其實也不太知道答案——是投資組合會長什麼樣子？最終會有多少是那種 bot 類型的定價，多少是長約定價。因為在上一輪高點與低點期間，我們幾乎——基本上全部都是長期合約。

I think it's also important that in the last peak and Bob, there were no automotive producers involved at all in the cycle. There are now and there's a lot more demand now. And I'll reference the remark Kent made earlier that given the size and maturity of -- we've only gone through one cycle before, really, since the dawn of the EV, and now we're moving through the next part of the cycle.

我也認為很重要的一點是，在上一輪高點與谷底的週期中，汽車製造商完全沒有參與其中。現在有了，而且現在的需求也大得多。我會呼應 Kent 先前的評論：就規模與成熟度而言——自電動車（EV）興起以來，我們其實只經歷過一個週期，而現在我們正進入下一個週期階段。

It's going a little different. It probably won't have the same volatility it did before. We don't know. But I think the size of growth is such that -- and supply additions is such that it's going to change with time. So the pricing structure we're putting in place is going to continue to evolve. We have contracts that fit the structure. So we know it works.

這次會有點不同。它可能不會像以前那樣波動那麼大。我們不知道。但我認為成長的規模——以及供給新增的情況——會使其隨時間改變。因此，我們正在建立的定價架構也會持續演進。我們已有符合該架構的合約，所以我們知道它是可行的。

We have customers paying fixed prices. We have customers who are only -- we're only going to give them a year commitment and they'll take -- they'll want to ride the wave. And at that point, that wave is going up. So it's -- how it settles out over time, we'll have to continue to dimension for you, but we're at the early stages.

我們有客戶支付固定價格。我們也有客戶——我們只會給他們一年期的承諾，而他們會——他們想要順勢而為。而在那個時間點，趨勢是往上的。所以——它長期會如何收斂，我們還需要持續向你們量化說明，但我們目前仍在早期階段。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Mike Sison。

Just curious what your thoughts on the lithium demand whether percent or tons in '22 is expected to be for the industry?

我只是好奇，你對 2022 年整個產業的鋰需求（不論以百分比或以噸數計）預期會是多少？

Yes. It's a question, Mike, that I may have to go back and look at our demand model because we do have a model we put out -- and it's still consistent with what we think today. And it was some months ago earlier this year, we did that. We're seeing a much bigger demand year in '21 overall this year than last because of the post-pandemic recovery. The overall market growth is 25% plus. So we're going to be at least in that order of magnitude for 2022, I'd say, on a year-on-year basis.

是的。Mike，這個問題我可能得回去看一下我們的需求模型，因為我們確實有一個模型並對外發布——而且它與我們今天的看法仍一致。那是今年稍早、幾個月前做的。我們看到 2021 年整體需求年比去年大很多，因為疫情後復甦。整體市場成長超過 25%。所以我會說，2022 年年增率至少也會在那個量級。

Got it. And then I know there's some timing in terms of getting the volume on for Wave II, but when do you think, roughly, you'll have all the capacity available to sell? Is it '23, '24, '25, just curious on the -- when you'll be able to sell it all?

了解。然後我知道 Wave II 在導入產量上有一些時程差異，但你大概什麼時候會有所有產能都可以拿來銷售？是 2023、2024、2025？只是好奇——你們大概何時能把它全部賣出去？

And when you say the capacity, you mean La Negra and Kemerton?

你說的產能，是指 La Negra 和 Kemerton 嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay, because we're -- I mean, our plants, we're going to be building plants over time. It's going to be ramping up over time. But La Negra -- between La Negra and Kemerton at full rates ramped up selling everything, '24 for the full year.

好的，因為我們——我的意思是，我們的工廠會隨時間逐步建置，並且會隨時間逐步爬坡。但 La Negra——La Negra 與 Kemerton 兩者在滿載、爬坡完成並把所有產量都賣出去的情況下，會是在 2024 年整年。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

Just a slightly more nuanced follow-up on this discussion around the increased volumes implied in your guidance. And -- so I surmise, most of that is coming from more volumes from via Greenbushes and that spodumene being converted downstream via tollers.

針對你們指引中所暗示的增量出貨，我想做一個更細緻的追問。據我推測，其中大部分來自 Greenbushes 的更多產量，並且那些鋰輝石會透過代工轉換（tollers）在下游進行轉換。

First, is that an accurate characterization? And then with that in mind, Eric, I'm pretty sure you've stated in the past that you don't rely on toll conversion for battery-grade chemicals, but only for technical grade lithium products. But in this case, it seems like the extra volumes are carbonate feeding into the LFP cathode market. So just wondering if that also is accurate?

第一，這樣的描述是否正確？第二，在此前提下，Eric，我很確定你過去曾表示你們不依賴代工轉換來生產電池級化學品，而只用於技術級鋰產品。但在這個情況下，看起來額外的量是碳酸鋰供應到 LFP 正極材料市場。所以我想確認這點是否也正確？

And if that's the case, should we be thinking of these carbonate grades via tollers as just -- or maybe just the LFP market being more of a technical grade market? And then finally, just -- it seems like this is part of the market you'll address once La Negra is ramped next year. But will then -- will you then say the current toll relationships that you're leaning into currently to opportunistically address these volumes?

如果是這樣，我們是否應該把這些透過代工取得的碳酸鋰等級視為——或者說把 LFP 市場視為更偏技術級市場？最後——看起來這是你們在明年 La Negra 爬坡後會處理的市場區塊。但到那時——你們是否會停止目前正在倚重的代工合作關係（toll relationships），也就是目前用來機會性地消化這些增量的安排？

There are a bunch of questions there, Chris. Let me go to the first one, which had to do with -- help me here, I'm just stuck on the LFP, but you had something before that. What was that? What was your first question, Chris?

Chris，你這裡有一串問題。讓我先回答第一個，也就是關於——你幫我一下，我現在卡在 LFP 上，但你在那之前還有一個問題。那是什麼？你的第一個問題是什麼，Chris？

Yes. So the tolling volumes...

是的，所以代工（tolling）的量……

Our volume, yes. Yes. Sorry. Senior moment there, I guess. The -- if you look at our produced volumes, we're going to be fairly flat first half to second half. Maybe slightly better in the second half because we have a little bit better production. We have some better production in Chile in the fourth quarter seasonally, just by a tad. What the real difference in our volume first to second half and our volume growth year-over-year is -- on the first half, second half is the tolling -- increased tolling.

我們的出貨量，是的。是的。抱歉，我想我剛剛一時恍神。——如果你看我們自產的量，上半年到下半年會相當持平。下半年可能會稍微好一點，因為我們的產量會略有提升。智利在第四季季節性地會有一些較好的產量，但只是一點點。真正造成我們上半年到下半年出貨量差異、以及年比年出貨量成長的——在上半年、下半年之間——是代工（tolling）——代工量的增加。

Year-over-year is tolling because we did none last year, as well as plants come back online and efficiencies in the plants, better operation in the plants year-over-year. So there's a bit of difference between first half, second half and year-over-year there.

以年對年來看之所以是代工（tolling），是因為去年我們完全沒有做；另外，隨著工廠重新上線，以及工廠效率提升、工廠營運較去年同期更佳。因此在上半年、下半年以及年對年之間會有一些差異。

On what we're using that carbonate for when we told it in China, it's going into the LFP market. I think what we've -- I don't know what we said year's ago, but what we said more recently is that the carbonate market, the tolling network is able to produce sufficient battery grid quality to supply the LFP market for batteries in China. So that's where we are selling that material currently.

至於我們在中國代工的那部分碳酸鋰用在哪裡，是進入 LFP 市場。我想我們——我不確定我們幾年前怎麼說，但我們最近的說法是：碳酸鋰市場的代工網路能夠生產足夠的電池級品質，以供應中國的 LFP 電池市場。所以我們目前就是在那裡銷售這些材料。

And then I'm going to ask your help again. The last question was...

接著我還要再請你幫個忙。最後一個問題是……

Yes. So since you're addressing that via the tolling relationships currently when you ramp La Negra next year, will you fade those relationships? Or do you still intend to participate via tolling? Obviously, this has mix implications given the higher feedstock costs and the fact that tollers need to make a margin. So curious if you'll fade those tolling relationships? Or maybe would there be a bare hub like you've done in the past with tolling partners that you're comfortable with?

是的。既然你們目前是透過代工關係來處理，那麼當你們明年把 La Negra 擴產拉升時，會淡出這些關係嗎？還是仍打算透過代工參與？顯然，考量到較高的原料成本以及代工方需要賺取利潤，這會影響產品組合。所以想了解你們是否會淡出這些代工關係？或者是否會像過去與你們信任的代工夥伴合作那樣，採用某種「裸露樞紐」（bare hub）的方式？

It will be a bit of both. I mean our strategy for a lot of what we produce out of La Negra's growth, La Negra 3 and 4, is to put it under a contract commitment in some form. That might be for price by only a year and for performance might be a couple of years. But that's our strategy for that volume. Our strategy for the toll volume is either to use it as a bridge to build a customer relationship when we have a La Negra 3 and 4.

會兩者兼具。我的意思是，我們對 La Negra 成長（La Negra 3 與 4）所產出的大部分產品的策略，是以某種形式放在合約承諾之下。價格可能只鎖一年，而績效承諾可能是兩年左右。但這就是我們對那部分量的策略。至於代工量，我們的策略是把它當作橋樑，用來在我們擁有 La Negra 3 與 4 產能時建立客戶關係。

Some of those customers we're currently selling total volumes for, we will take advantage of selling La Negra 3 and 4 to it as well. But in today's market, which is particularly tight is also opportunistic to play in what is a pretty tight market. And there, we're really playing on a spot basis. So while we have higher cost to produce this total volume, we're taking advantage of currently higher spot prices than contract.

我們目前對其中一些客戶是以代工量在銷售，未來也會把 La Negra 3 與 4 的產品賣給他們。但在當前市場特別吃緊的情況下，在這個相當緊俏的市場中把握機會也很有利。而在那裡，我們主要是以現貨方式操作。因此，雖然生產這些代工量的成本較高，但我們正利用目前現貨價格高於合約價格的優勢。

And our final question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Kevin McCarthy。

I wanted to ask about your Catalyst business. If we look at margins in the first half of the year in broad strokes, they're running maybe half of historical levels yet. In the prepared remarks, I think you indicated you anticipate a strong rebound in the business. So -- just wondering if you could flesh that out in terms of what you're seeing in your refinery catalyst order books? And when might we expect those margins to get back to historical levels, might that be as soon as '22 or more likely '23 or later?

我想問一下你們的催化劑業務。如果我們大致看一下今年上半年的利潤率，可能只有歷史水準的一半左右。在事先準備的發言中，我想你提到你預期該業務會強勁反彈。所以——想請你更具體說明一下：你們在煉油催化劑的訂單簿上看到什麼情況？以及我們何時可能看到利潤率回到歷史水準？會快到 2022 年就發生，還是更可能在 2023 年或更晚？

Kevin, this is Raphael. Just to respond, one, there's been a series of effects. I mean in the first half of the year, we certainly had an impact from the winter storm. We have residual impact from the pandemic. A lot of that pandemic impact was a down trade of high-performance catalysts to maybe more workhorse catalysts, that has an effect on margins and as well as on our mix.

Kevin，我是 Raphael。回應一下，第一，這裡有一連串的影響因素。我的意思是，今年上半年我們確實受到冬季風暴的影響。我們也仍有疫情的殘餘影響。疫情的影響很大一部分是：從高性能催化劑降級改用較「主力型」（workhorse）的催化劑，這會影響利潤率，也會影響我們的產品組合。

Looking forward, I think we would see recovery. I mean some of our best products, what we're known for, for example, is our high-performance hydro-processing catalysts. As the market is recovering as change out start to a faster clip in 2022, we're going to start to see that come back.

展望未來，我認為會看到復甦。我的意思是，我們一些最好的產品、也是我們最為人所知的，例如高性能加氫處理（hydro-processing）催化劑。隨著市場復甦、到 2022 年更換週期（change out）開始加快，我們將開始看到這部分回來。

Again, we have great partnerships for great performance catalyst. Those are the higher margin that will improve our mix. And I think it's that mix impact going into 2022, you'll start to see that improvement in our margins. We already see it today, Kevin. We have customers that are -- they down traded to lower performance catalysts when they were under margin pressure.

同樣地，我們在高性能催化劑方面有很好的合作夥伴。那些是較高毛利的產品，將改善我們的組合。我認為正是這個組合效應進入 2022 年後，你會開始看到我們利潤率的改善。我們今天其實已經看到了，Kevin。我們有客戶在利潤壓力下，曾經降級改用較低性能的催化劑。

We just had a customer meeting this week with a large North American refiner who was telling us that because they're starting to operate at higher rates, they're needing to run under more severe conditions, they need higher-performance catalysts. Those command higher margins for us. So we think it's a favorable trend. It will probably start to materialize in 2022 where you'll start to see them.

我們本週剛與一家大型北美煉油商開會，對方告訴我們，因為他們開始以更高的負荷運轉，需要在更嚴苛的條件下運行，因此需要更高性能的催化劑。這些對我們而言能帶來更高的利潤率。所以我們認為這是有利趨勢。它可能會在 2022 年開始顯現，屆時你會開始看到。

And then secondly, if I may, for Eric, in a prior answer, I think you alluded to the news out today that the U.S. is now targeting 40% to 50% of new auto sales as EVs by 2030, although I thought I read that it might be non-mandatory. So just curious about your view on that? Is it incrementally accretive to your demand outlook in any way? Or are the U.S. automakers already tracking the similar levels? Or what do you think about the potential market impact of that announcement?

其次，如果可以的話，想請 Eric 回應。在你先前的回答中，我想你提到今天的新聞：美國現在以 2030 年新車銷售中 40% 到 50% 為電動車作為目標，雖然我讀到它可能不是強制性的。所以想請教你怎麼看？這是否會在任何程度上對你們的需求展望帶來增量利多？或者美國車廠本來就已經朝類似水準前進？你怎麼看這項宣布可能帶來的市場影響？

Yes. So this is Kent. It's early news. It's just out today. And I don't -- from my understanding was it's not mandatory. It's kind of something that is trying to lead legislation to something maybe like that. It's -- so I'd say it's early days. And I'm not -- and it's probably in the ballpark of what the car companies are already thinking. Maybe it's a little more aggressive, but it doesn't shift the model from our perspective. I don't think -- I think our view would be that's neutral.

是的。我是 Kent。這是剛出來的早期消息，就在今天。我——依我的理解，它不是強制性的。比較像是試圖引導立法走向可能類似的方向。所以我會說現在還很早。我也不——而且它大概落在車廠本來就在思考的範圍內。也許稍微更積極一些，但從我們的角度看，它不會改變模型。我不認為——我想我們的看法是：這是中性。

And now we will -- I would like to turn the call over to Kent Masters for closing remarks.

接下來——我想把電話交給 Kent Masters 作結語。

Thank you, Carol, and thank you all again for your participation on our call today. As you can see, we have a lot to be excited about at Albemarle, and we see extraordinary opportunities for growth. We are implementing a comprehensive operating model that will enable us to execute on our objectives effectively and efficiently.

謝謝你，Carol，也再次感謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議。如各位所見，Albemarle 有許多令人振奮之處，我們也看到非凡的成長機會。我們正在導入一套全面性的營運模式，使我們能夠有效率且有效地執行我們的目標。

We look forward to discussing this in greater detail during our Investor Day on September 10, and we hope you will all be able to join us then. Thank you, and that concludes our call today.

我們期待在 9 月 10 日的投資人日更深入地討論，也希望各位都能屆時參加。謝謝，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，祝各位有美好的一天。您現在可以掛線。