雅保公司 (ALB) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q2 2020 Albemarle Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Meredith Bandy, VP of Investor Relations and Sustainability. Please go ahead, ma'am.

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候，歡迎參加雅保公司（Albemarle Corporation）2020 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示) 現在我想把會議交給今天的發言人——投資人關係與永續發展副總裁 Meredith Bandy。女士，請開始。

Great. Thank you, Joelle. Thanks, everyone, and welcome to Albemarle's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings were released after the close yesterday and you'll find our press release, presentation and non-GAAP reconciliations posted to our website under the Investor Relations section at albermarle.com.

好的。謝謝你，Joelle。也謝謝各位，歡迎參加雅保 2020 年第二季財報電話會議。我們的財報已於昨日收盤後發布，您可在 albermarle.com 網站「投資人關係」專區找到新聞稿、簡報以及非 GAAP 調節表。

Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer; Raphael Crawford, President Catalysts; Netha Johnson, President Bromine Specialties and Eric Norris, President Lithium, are also available for Q&A.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：執行長 Kent Masters；財務長 Scott Tozier；此外，催化劑事業群總裁 Raphael Crawford、溴系特用化學品事業群總裁 Netha Johnson，以及鋰事業群總裁 Eric Norris 也將出席問答環節。

As a reminder, some of the statements made during this conference call, including our outlook, expected company performance, expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and proposed expansion plans may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Note that the cautionary language about forward-looking statements is contained in our press release and that same language applies to this call.

提醒各位，本次電話會議中的部分陳述，包括我們的展望、預期公司表現、COVID-19 疫情的預期影響以及擬議的擴產計畫，可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。請注意，有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言載於我們的新聞稿中，且同樣適用於本次電話會議。

Please also note that some of our comments today refer to financial measures that are not prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix of our earnings presentation, both of which are posted on our website. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kent.

也請注意，我們今天的部分評論提及並非依據 GAAP 編製的財務衡量指標。這些指標與 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表可在我們的財報新聞稿以及財報簡報附錄中找到，兩者皆已發布於我們的網站。接下來，我把時間交給 Kent。

Thank you, Meredith, and good morning, everyone. On today's call, I will cover a high-level overview of the current environment, give an update on our strategy and highlight some of the actions we're taking to improve the sustainability of our business. Scott will then review second quarter financials, provide updates on our balance sheet and cost-saving initiatives and review our outlook. I want to reaffirm that the safety and welfare of our people is our highest priority at Albemarle.

謝謝你，Meredith，各位早安。在今天的電話會議中，我將就當前環境做高層次概述，更新我們的策略，並重點說明我們為提升業務永續性所採取的一些行動。接著 Scott 將回顧第二季財務表現，更新資產負債表與節省成本措施，並說明我們的展望。我想再次強調，在雅保，員工的安全與福祉是我們的最高優先事項。

Our core values always define how we operate, but even more so in the difficult situations we face today. During the pandemic, we have been able to continue to operate because we care about the welfare of each other. We humbly acknowledge that this crisis is not about us, but about everyone, and we show integrity by doing the right thing. Thankfully, the pandemic has not materially impacted our operations to date. I deeply appreciate the courage and continued support of the frontline essential workers in our communities and our dedicated Albemarle employees who continue to ensure safe operations at our facilities and offices worldwide. At this point in time, we have had relatively few diagnosed individuals out of our more than 5,600 global employees. Using our exposure protocol, we have traced the contact path for any confirmed case among employees and have isolated colleagues as needed. We are staying in close contact with impacted employees to monitor their welfare, we are grateful that previously diagnosed employees have recovered or are recovering as expected.

我們的核心價值一向界定我們的運作方式，而在當前所面臨的艱難情勢下更是如此。在疫情期間，我們之所以能持續營運，是因為我們彼此關心對方的福祉。我們謙卑地承認，這場危機並非只關乎我們，而是關乎所有人；我們以做正確的事來展現誠信。值得慶幸的是，截至目前疫情並未對我們的營運造成重大影響。我由衷感謝我們社區第一線必要工作者的勇氣與持續付出，也感謝雅保敬業的員工，持續確保我們全球各地廠區與辦公室的安全運作。截至目前，在我們超過 5,600 名全球員工中，確診人數相對不多。依據我們的接觸暴露處置流程，我們已針對任何員工確診個案追蹤接觸路徑，並在需要時隔離相關同仁。我們與受影響員工保持密切聯繫以關注其健康與福祉；我們也很感激先前確診的員工已康復或正如預期康復中。

In areas where we are seeing unfavorable trends, such as Chile and parts of the U.S., we are extending work from home requirements for nonessential workers and working closely with our manufacturing sites to ensure safe operations can continue. At many of our locations, nonessential employees have returned to work. We continue to be in close contact with site teams to support them in a healthy and safe return process. Our global cross-functional COVID response team continues to meet weekly to mitigate the impact to our operations and manage the impacts to customer demand.

在我們看到不利趨勢的地區，例如智利及美國部分地區，我們延長非必要員工居家辦公的要求，並與製造據點密切合作，以確保能持續安全營運。在我們許多據點，非必要員工已返回工作崗位。我們持續與各據點團隊保持密切聯繫，支持其以健康且安全的方式完成復工流程。我們的全球跨職能 COVID 應變團隊仍每週召開會議，以降低對營運的影響並管理客戶需求的變化。

Turning to recent results. Yesterday, we released second quarter financials, including net income of $86 million or $0.80 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $185 million, down 29% from prior year. However, I'm pleased to say that these results were at the high end of our previous outlook, thanks to better-than-expected performance in lithium and in bromine.

接著談近期業績。昨天我們公布第二季財務結果，包括淨利 8,600 萬美元（每股 0.80 美元），以及調整後 EBITDA 1.85 億美元，較去年同期下降 29%。不過，我很高興地表示，受惠於鋰與溴業務表現優於預期，這些結果落在我們先前展望的高端。

Our primary capital priorities continued to be paying dividends to shareholders, preserving our investment-grade credit rating and maintaining our long-term growth profile. To that end, during the quarter, we announced a dividend of $0.385 per share, in line with the prior quarter and up 5% from last year. We continue to maintain adequate financial flexibility with liquidity of $1.5 billion, and our previously announced cost-saving initiatives are also on track.

我們的主要資本配置優先事項仍是：向股東支付股利、維持投資等級信用評等，以及維持長期成長動能。為此，我們在本季宣布每股股利 0.385 美元，與前一季一致，且較去年增加 5%。我們持續維持充足的財務彈性，流動性達 15 億美元；先前宣布的節省成本措施也正按計畫推進。

At a high level, Albemarle's strategy has not materially changed. We will invest in and grow our lithium business, and we will fund lithium growth with cash flows from our more mature businesses. Historically, we've actively managed our portfolio to generate shareholder value and will continue to do so. We will also maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation. The difference is that the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed lithium growth out by at least 1 year, while also impacting near-term cash flow from our other businesses. Our response is to broaden and accelerate our focus on operational discipline to continuously raise the bar on performance. And specifically, manufacturing excellence to drive best-in-class cost management and product quality with a relentless focus on safety, standard work, continuous improvement and the application of lean principles across our manufacturing operations.

整體而言，雅保的策略並未出現重大改變。我們將投資並擴大鋰業務，並以較成熟事業的現金流來支應鋰業務成長。歷來我們積極管理投資組合以創造股東價值，未來也將持續如此。我們也將維持嚴謹的資本配置紀律。不同之處在於，COVID-19 疫情使鋰業務成長至少延後 1 年，同時也影響我們其他事業的短期現金流。我們的因應之道，是擴大並加速聚焦營運紀律，持續提高績效標準。具體而言，透過製造卓越（manufacturing excellence），以對安全、標準作業、持續改善以及在製造營運中導入精實原則的堅定聚焦，推動同級最佳的成本管理與產品品質。

In business excellence to deliver exceptional value and service to our customers and to capture profitable, high-value opportunities through tailored value propositions and optimized business processes and resources, so customer-facing as well as back office and capital project excellence to effectively manage capacity to demand through the use of standard, reliable designs and disciplined planning and process management.

在商業卓越（business excellence）方面，為客戶提供卓越價值與服務，並透過量身打造的價值主張與最佳化的業務流程與資源配置，掌握具獲利性、高價值的機會；同時在面向客戶與後勤支援，以及資本專案卓越方面，透過標準化、可靠的設計，以及嚴謹的規劃與流程管理，有效地使產能與需求相匹配。

We know that being profitable and doing what's right are not at odds with each other. We expect to do both well, and our sustainability framework is our guide. In terms of our people and workplace, we continue to advance and promote inclusion and diversity across our organization. Last year, we added 2 highly experienced female board members. Currently, 50% of our directors represent gender and racial diversity, which broadens the range of prospective experiences and insights we can leverage to benefit our organization.

我們知道，獲利與做正確的事並不相互衝突。我們期望兩者都能做好，而我們的永續發展架構就是指引。就人才與職場而言，我們持續在整個組織推動並促進共融與多元。去年，我們新增了 2 位經驗豐富的女性董事。目前，我們董事中有 50% 具性別與種族多元性，這拓展了我們可運用的多元經驗與洞見範圍，以造福組織。

Recent events of discrimination and violence against black citizens in our communities remind us that we need to work much harder to fight racism. As a result, we've introduced a multipronged strategy to refocus our inclusion and diversity efforts from the bottom-up as well as the top down. Current activities include the addition of a dedicated senior inclusion and diversity leader, unconscious bias training for leaders and incorporating inclusion and diversity into the onboarding process for all new employees.

近期社區中針對黑人公民的歧視與暴力事件提醒我們，必須更努力對抗種族主義。因此，我們推出多管齊下的策略，從基層到高層同步重新聚焦我們的共融與多元工作。目前的行動包括增設專責的資深共融與多元領導職、為主管提供無意識偏見訓練，並將共融與多元納入所有新進員工的到職訓練流程。

We are also focused on responsible natural resource management. Water management is an important sustainability objective for Albemarle and to continue to grow its imperative that we manage water efficiently. One example of this is that our facility in Magnolia, Arkansas, one of the world's largest bromine and bromine chemical sites. Magnolia uses an artificial marsh as a unique water treatment facility.

我們也聚焦於負責任的自然資源管理。水資源管理是雅保重要的永續目標；為了持續成長，我們必須有效率地管理用水。其中一個例子是我們位於阿肯色州 Magnolia 的廠區，該廠是全球最大的溴與溴化學品基地之一。Magnolia 廠採用人工濕地作為獨特的水處理設施。

We are actively collaborating, engaging with our communities. Our lithium operations at the Solarda, Atacama in Chile, works closely with the local community to promote environmental stewardship and foster the community's long-term development. We share a percentage of our revenue with local indigenous communities and more than 35% of our employees in the region are indigenous.

我們也積極與社區合作並投入參與。我們在智利阿塔卡馬（Atacama）Solarda 的鋰業務營運，與當地社區密切合作，以促進環境管理並推動社區的長期發展。我們與當地原住民社區分享一定比例的營收，且該地區超過 35% 的員工為原住民。

Finally, our sustainability business model helps create long-term value for all shareholders. For example, about 50% of our catalyst revenues are from products that reduce SOx and NOx emissions to produce cleaner transportation fuels. In 2019, the use of our catalyst prevented the release of about 10 million tons of sulfur into the environment.

最後，我們的永續經營模式有助於為所有股東創造長期價值。例如，我們約 50% 的催化劑營收來自可降低 SOx 與 NOx 排放、以生產更潔淨運輸燃料的產品。2019 年，我們催化劑的使用避免約 1,000 萬噸硫排放至環境中。

In the coming weeks, we will publish an updated sustainability report to provide increased transparency and disclosure around these and other important topics, as discussed at our Investor Day late last year.

在接下來幾週內，我們將發布更新版永續報告，以就這些及其他重要議題提供更高的透明度與揭露，如同我們在去年底投資人日所討論的。

We are excited about the progress we've made on sustainability, but we also recognize that sustainability is, by its nature, a long-term journey. In 2021 and beyond, our focus will shift from setting the baseline on sustainability performance to goal setting and continuous improvement. With that as a backdrop, I'll turn it over to Scott for more detail on our recent results.

我們對在永續方面取得的進展感到振奮，但也認知到永續本質上是一段長期旅程。在 2021 年及之後，我們的重點將從建立永續績效基準，轉向目標設定與持續改善。在此背景下，我把時間交給 Scott，請他更詳細說明我們近期的業績。

Thank you, Ken, and good morning, everyone. Albemarle generated second quarter net sales of $764 million, a decrease of about 14% compared to the prior year. This reduction was primarily driven by reduced prices in lithium as expected coming into the year and reduced volumes in catalysts and bromine related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

謝謝你，Ken，各位早安。Albemarle 第二季淨銷售額為 7.64 億美元，較去年同期約下降 14%。此降幅主要來自年初即預期的鋰價下滑，以及受 COVID-19 疫情影響，催化劑與溴素的銷量下降。

GAAP net income was $86 million or $0.80 per diluted share. The non-GAAP adjustments this quarter were primarily related to restructuring costs, with adjusted earnings of $0.86 per diluted share. Lower net income was primarily driven by lower net sales, partially offset by over $30 million in cost and efficiency improvements. Corporate and GS&A costs were lower versus the prior year due to these cost savings initiatives.

依 GAAP 計算的淨利為 8,600 萬美元，或稀釋後每股 0.80 美元。本季非 GAAP 調整項目主要與重整成本相關，調整後每股盈餘為稀釋後每股 0.86 美元。淨利下滑主要由淨銷售額降低所致，部分被超過 3,000 萬美元的成本與效率改善所抵銷。由於這些節省成本的措施，企業與 GS&A 成本較去年同期下降。

As Ken stated, adjusted EBITDA was $185 million, a decrease of 29% from the prior year, but at the high end of the guidance we gave in May. If you look at Slide 8 for a look at the EBITDA bridge by business segment, adjusted EBITDA was down $77 million over the prior year, reflecting lower net sales, higher freight costs and lower equity income, partially offset by the cost savings initiatives.

如 Ken 所述，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.85 億美元，較去年同期下降 29%，但位於我們 5 月提供之指引區間的高端。若參考第 8 張投影片的各事業部 EBITDA 橋接，調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期減少 7,700 萬美元，反映淨銷售額下降、運費成本上升及權益法投資收益降低，部分被節省成本措施所抵銷。

Lithium's adjusted EBITDA declined by $50 million versus the prior year, excluding currency. Pricing was down about 14%, partially offset by cost savings initiatives. Lower pricing reflects previously agreed battery-grade contract price concessions as well as lower market pricing. Adjusted EBITDA was also impacted by lower Talison equity income as our joint venture partner took lower volumes in the quarter.

鋰事業的調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）較去年同期下降 5,000 萬美元。價格約下跌 14%，部分被節省成本措施所抵銷。較低的價格反映先前已同意的電池級合約價格讓步，以及市場價格走低。由於合資夥伴本季提貨量較低，Talison 權益法投資收益下降，也影響了調整後 EBITDA。

Bromine's adjusted EBITDA was down $8 million, excluding currency. The decline was primarily due to volume reductions related to demand softness, partially offset by cost savings and efficiency improvements. In Catalyst, adjusted EBITDA declined $44 million, excluding currency. Volumes were down 22%, while pricing was down just 4%. Lower volumes primarily reflect FCC volume declines caused by reduced consumption of transportation fuel, high fuel inventories and continued travel restrictions.

溴素事業的調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）下降 800 萬美元。下滑主要因需求疲弱導致銷量減少，部分被節省成本與效率改善所抵銷。在催化劑事業，調整後 EBITDA（不含匯率影響）下降 4,400 萬美元。銷量下降 22%，而價格僅下降 4%。較低的銷量主要反映因運輸燃料消耗降低、燃料庫存偏高及持續的旅行限制，導致 FCC 銷量下滑。

HPC volumes were down due to normal lumpiness in order patterns as well as some softness related to lower oil prices and reduced fuel demand. Catalyst results were also impacted by a net $12 million correction of out-of-period errors related to inventory valuation and freight accruals. These errors occurred primarily in the first quarter of 2020, following the implementation of our ERP system.

HPC 銷量下降，係因訂單型態正常的波動性，以及受油價下跌與燃料需求降低影響而出現的部分疲弱。催化劑業績亦受到與存貨評價及運費應計相關之跨期錯誤淨額 1,200 萬美元更正的影響。這些錯誤主要發生在 2020 年第一季，係在我們 ERP 系統導入之後。

Our corporate and other category adjusted EBITDA increased $15 million due to improved fine chemistry services results and corporate cost reductions. As Kent mentioned, we ended the quarter with liquidity of about $1.5 billion, including $737 million of cash, $550 million remaining under our $1 billion revolver and $220 million on other available credit lines.

我們的「企業與其他」類別調整後 EBITDA 增加 1,500 萬美元，主要來自精細化學服務（fine chemistry services）業績改善及企業成本降低。如 Kent 所提，我們季末流動性約 15 億美元，包括 7.37 億美元現金、10 億美元循環信貸額度下尚餘 5.5 億美元，以及其他可用信用額度 2.2 億美元。

Our short-term debt is comprised of commercial paper and the delayed draw term loan. We also have $441 million of senior notes due in late 2021. The investment-grade market is open to us, and we anticipate refinancing or rolling forward these debt maturities.

我們的短期負債由商業本票與延遲提用定期貸款構成。我們亦有 4.41 億美元的優先票據將於 2021 年底到期。投資級市場對我們仍然開放，我們預期將為這些到期債務進行再融資或展期。

The divestitures of FCS and PCS, which is a portion of our catalyst business, are ongoing, but progress continues to be slow due to COVID-19 pandemic related travel restrictions. The potential buyers remain interested in both transactions are potential liquidity events as we get back to normal.

FCS 與 PCS（屬於我們催化劑業務的一部分）的資產剝離仍在進行中，但由於 COVID-19 疫情相關的旅行限制，進度仍然緩慢。潛在買方對兩項交易仍保持興趣，並將在我們回到常態時成為潛在的流動性事件。

Turning to Slide 10 for an update on our cost savings activities. As discussed last quarter, given the current economic environment, we are executing our downturn playbook to preserve cash. We continue to expect these short-term cash management actions to save the company about $25 million to $40 million per quarter. Examples of these short-term savings include things like travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limited utilization of professional services and consultants and actively managing our working capital.

接著看第 10 張投影片，更新我們的節省成本活動。如上季所討論，鑑於目前的經濟環境，我們正執行景氣下行應對方案（downturn playbook）以保全現金。我們仍預期這些短期現金管理行動可為公司每季節省約 2,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。這些短期節省的例子包括：因 COVID-19 疫情而實施的旅行限制、有限使用專業服務與顧問，以及積極管理營運資金。

As previously disclosed, our two biggest capital projects, La Negra III and IV and Kemerton are being slow walked to preserve capital. We have the optionality to accelerate or stop these projects depending on market conditions. At this point, we continue to expect full year 2020 capital spending in the range of $850 million to $950 million, unchanged from our previous outlook and down 15% from our original outlook late last year.

如先前揭露，我們兩個最大的資本專案 La Negra III 與 IV 以及 Kemerton，正以放慢步調推進以保留資本。我們可依市場狀況選擇加速或停止這些專案。目前我們仍預期 2020 全年資本支出介於 8.5 億至 9.5 億美元，與先前展望一致，且較去年底原先展望下調 15%。

We are also temporarily reducing some production, primarily in response to near-term demand weakness. In catalysts, we have idled one HPC production line, and FCC production line that was idled in Q2 is now back up and running. In lithium, we plan to idle portions of our Silver Peak and Kings Mountain production facilities, in response to short-term supply demand imbalances and excess inventory builds in the battery-grade channel. We remain committed to the long-term operation of these facilities and currently plan to restart them in early 2021.

我們也正暫時降低部分產量，主要是因應短期需求疲弱。在催化劑方面，我們已停工一條 HPC 產線，而第二季停工的一條 FCC 產線目前已恢復運轉。在鋰方面，因應短期供需失衡以及電池級通路庫存過度累積，我們計畫讓 Silver Peak 與 Kings Mountain 生產設施的部分產能停工。我們仍致力於這些設施的長期營運，目前規劃於 2021 年初重啟。

And finally, our accelerated 2020 sustainable cost savings initiative is on track to achieve cost reductions of $50 million to $70 million this year and to reach run rate savings of at least $100 million by the end of 2021. These cost savings projects were already identified and underway when COVID-19 hit. For example, our lithium team has identified $11 million of annual savings related to operational excellence and supply chain optimization. We are leveraging lean principles at our plants to optimize efficiency.

最後，我們加速推動的 2020 年永續性節省成本計畫進展順利，預計今年可達成 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的成本降低，並在 2021 年底前達到至少 1 億美元的年度化節省（run rate savings）。這些節省成本專案在 COVID-19 爆發前就已辨識並著手進行。例如，我們的鋰團隊已辨識出與營運卓越及供應鏈最佳化相關的每年 1,100 萬美元節省。我們在各工廠運用精實原則以最佳化效率。

Bromine and catalysts both have projects aimed at reducing annual direct material cost by almost $7 million in total. We are examining all upcoming contracts for additional cost savings. Depending on market dynamics, that may mean qualifying new suppliers and diversifying supply or consolidating spend with fewer suppliers in exchange for better pricing.

溴素與催化劑兩個事業部皆有專案，目標合計將年度直接材料成本降低近 700 萬美元。我們正檢視所有即將到期或即將簽訂的合約，以尋求額外的成本節省。視市場動態而定，這可能意味著認證新供應商並分散供應來源，或是將採購支出集中於較少的供應商，以換取更佳的價格。

And at Corporate, our global IT group is streamlining the number of software applications that they support to reduce cost and increase productivity, resulting in a savings of about $4 million per year.

在企業層面，我們的全球 IT 團隊正精簡其支援的軟體應用程式數量，以降低成本並提升生產力，因而每年可節省約 400 萬美元。

Let's turn to our outlook for the third quarter on Page 11. Based on our current order book and cost reduction actions, we expect Q3 2020 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $140 million to $190 million. Lithium's Q3 2020 EBITDA is expected to be down about 10% to 20% sequentially. We continue to see the impact of contract price concessions agreed upon in late 2019, and as well as lower market prices. Q3 results are also expected to be impacted by continued low OEM automotive production, higher inventory in the battery chain and reduced demand in the glass and ceramics markets.

接著看第 11 頁，我們對第三季的展望。根據目前的訂單簿與降本措施，我們預期 2020 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 介於 1.4 億至 1.9 億美元。鋰事業 2020 年第三季 EBITDA 預期將較前一季下降約 10% 至 20%。我們仍持續看到 2019 年底同意的合約價格讓步，以及市場價格走低的影響。第三季結果亦預期將受到 OEM 汽車產量持續偏低、電池供應鏈庫存偏高，以及玻璃與陶瓷市場需求降低的影響。

Bromine Q3 EBITDA is expected to be roughly flat sequentially, as we continue to see COVID-19 pandemic related impacts, which began in late Q2. Stabilization in some markets, like construction, offset continued weakness in other areas, including flame retardants and drilling fluids.

溴業務第三季 EBITDA 預期與前一季大致持平，因為我們持續看到與 COVID-19 疫情相關的影響，該影響於第二季末開始出現。部分市場（如建築）出現穩定，抵銷了其他領域（包括阻燃劑與鑽井液）持續疲弱的情況。

Finally, Catalyst Q3 EBITDA is expected to remain down about 50% to 60% from the prior year. FCC demand is expected to partially recover in the second half, as travel resumes and global gasoline inventories continue to deplete. Conversely, the HPC business is expected to be negatively impacted in the second half, as refiners defer spending and push turnarounds into 2021 and 2022.

最後，催化劑業務第三季 EBITDA 預期仍將較去年同期下滑約 50% 至 60%。隨著旅遊恢復、全球汽油庫存持續去化，FCC 需求預期在下半年部分回升。相反地，HPC 業務預期在下半年將受到負面影響，因為煉油商延後支出並將歲修（turnarounds）推遲至 2021 年與 2022 年。

Looking beyond Q3 2020, continues to be challenging with limited visibility for most of our businesses. We're staying in close contact with customers and suppliers and reviewing various economic forecasts as we continue to navigate through this uncertain environment. Albemarle benefits from strong business positions across a wide range of end-user markets. About 1/4 of our revenues are from transportation fuels. These revenues are largely tied to miles driven or fuel consumption. U.S. miles driven dropped off sharply in March with stay at home orders around the country and has rebounded since, but remains well below a normal summer season. EIA forecast suggests that U.S. miles driven won't return to 2019 levels until late next year.

展望 2020 年第三季之後，對我們多數業務而言仍具挑戰，能見度有限。我們與客戶及供應商保持密切聯繫，並檢視各種經濟預測，以持續在這個不確定的環境中前行。Albemarle 在廣泛的終端用戶市場中具備強勢的業務地位。約 1/4 的營收來自運輸燃料。這些營收在很大程度上與行駛里程或燃料消耗相關。美國行駛里程在 3 月因全國居家令而大幅下滑，之後已反彈，但仍遠低於正常的夏季水準。EIA 的預測顯示，美國行駛里程要到明年年底才會回到 2019 年水準。

Electric vehicle sales are a key driver for our energy storage business. We look at a variety of auto production and sales forecasts, including IHS Markit's forecast. IHS expects 2020 electric vehicle production of 3 million units, down significantly from their pre-COVID forecast, but up about 20% from 2019. Expected 2021 EV production of 5.2 million units is also down from previous forecasts, but represents a significant rebound from current EV production levels. Of course, ultimately, what matters is consumer behavior and automotive sales. And to that end, we are also encouraged by recent green incentives we are seeing around the world, which are supportive of EV demand. Many of our end markets, such as electronics, chemical synthesis and construction, are driven by broader consumer sentiment and global GDP. Consumer sentiment is rebounding in all regions, but remains below pre-COVID levels.

電動車銷售是我們儲能業務的關鍵驅動因素。我們參考多種汽車產量與銷售預測，包括 IHS Markit 的預測。IHS 預期 2020 年電動車產量為 300 萬輛，較其 COVID 前的預測大幅下修，但較 2019 年增加約 20%。預期 2021 年電動車產量為 520 萬輛，也低於先前預測，但相較目前電動車產量水準代表顯著反彈。當然，最終重要的是消費者行為與汽車銷售。就此而言，我們也受到鼓舞，因為近期在全球各地看到的綠色激勵措施，有助於支撐電動車需求。我們許多終端市場（如電子、化學合成與建築）受到更廣泛的消費者信心與全球 GDP 所驅動。各地區的消費者信心正在回升，但仍低於 COVID 前水準。

In 2020, GDP forecasts have stabilized or represent fairly significant year-over-year declines. These forecasts and leading indicators help gauge the outlook for our end-use markets, but a variety of factors, including order lags, inventory changes and regulatory changes, could cause our own results to differ from the underlying market conditions. And of course, secondary ways of infection could also cause setbacks in demand. Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that many of our end-use markets are at least stabilizing, if not starting to recover.

在 2020 年，GDP 預測已趨於穩定，或顯示相當顯著的年對年下滑。這些預測與領先指標有助於衡量我們終端使用市場的展望，但多種因素（包括訂單落後、庫存變動與法規變更）可能使我們自身的結果與基礎市場狀況有所差異。當然，感染的第二波也可能導致需求出現挫折。儘管如此，我們仍審慎樂觀地認為，我們許多終端使用市場至少正在趨於穩定，甚至開始復甦。

Thanks, Scott. As we all know, economic conditions remain very challenging. Albemarle is an industry leader in all three of our core businesses. We believe in the long-term growth prospects of these businesses, but our immediate challenge is to manage through this crisis. In the meantime, we will focus on controlling what we can control. That means, first and foremost, working hard to keep our people safe. It also means building operational discipline to improve cost and efficiency to deliver exceptional value and service and to optimize our capital spending. We remain confident in our strategy, and we will modify execution of that strategy to further position Albemarle for success.

謝謝，Scott。如同大家所知，經濟情勢仍然非常嚴峻。Albemarle 在我們三大核心業務中皆為產業領導者。我們相信這些業務的長期成長前景，但眼前的挑戰是如何度過這場危機。同時，我們將專注於控制我們能控制的事項。這意味著，首要之務是努力確保員工安全。也意味著建立營運紀律，以改善成本與效率，提供卓越的價值與服務，並最佳化資本支出。我們對策略仍具信心，並將調整該策略的執行方式，以進一步讓 Albemarle 站上成功的位置。

All right. (Operator Instructions) And with that, operator, please proceed with the Q&A.

好的。（接線員指示）那麼，接線員，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 David Begleiter。

This is David Wang here for Dave. I guess, first, just given the timing lag and probably some lower fixed cost absorption. Can lithium EBITDA be up sequentially in Q4?

我是 David Wang，代 Dave 提問。我想先問，考量時間落差以及固定成本吸收可能較低。鋰業務的 EBITDA 在第四季能否較前一季成長？

It's really going to depend -- this is Scott. It's really going to depend on what the volume environment looks like in Q4. The team has done a great job on cost reduction. I'm not expecting any incremental -- sequential cost reduction going into the fourth quarter at this point in time unless demand starts to decline further. But at the end of the day, dependent -- fourth quarter growth is going to depend on what the volume looks like coming out of our customers.

這真的要看——我是 Scott。這真的要看第四季的出貨量環境會是什麼樣子。團隊在降成本方面做得非常好。就目前而言，我不預期進入第四季會有任何額外——相較前一季的成本下降，除非需求進一步下滑。但歸根結底，第四季的成長將取決於我們客戶端的出貨量表現。

Okay. And then, I guess, do you have any early view on how your lithium prices could trend in '21?

了解。那麼，我想問，你們對 2021 年鋰價走勢是否有任何初步看法？

Yes, so -- yes, this is Kent. Yes, so that's the magic question. And it's going to depend on volume, right? As volume comes back and the market gets tighter, but we know there's inventory in the supply chain. It's going to take a little bit of additional volume to work that off before prices move. So that's the inflection that we're looking for, but it's too early for us to call that.

是的——是的，我是 Kent。是的，這就是那個關鍵問題。而這將取決於出貨量，對吧？隨著出貨量回升、市場變得更緊，但我們知道供應鏈中仍有庫存。在價格上行之前，還需要多一些額外的出貨量來消化這些庫存。所以這就是我們在尋找的拐點，但現在要下定論還太早。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的 Joel Jackson。

This is Robin on for Joel. Can you describe the magnitude of the current LC inventory dynamic, if you could break it down both regionally and by end product versus feedstock, if possible?

我是 Robin，代 Joel 提問。你能否說明目前 LC 庫存變化的幅度？如果可以的話，能否按地區以及按終端產品相對於原料（feedstock）來拆分？

Robin, this is Eric Norris here. I'll do as best I can. I can't give all the granularity that you're asking. But we definitely saw during the second quarter, inventories continue to build in the channel. This is because, as we all know, automotive producers were shut down for a good part of the second quarter. Our demand in the industrial sectors has weakened. And when those automotive producers reopen, they reopened at lower rates. So that inventory rose to levels that are in excess of 5 months above normal levels for refined lithium products. That's largely -- almost entirely in the battery channel. I mean, there may be some inventories in industrial, but that's being worked off. So it's really the battery channel. And most of the battery industry today is Asia. So regionally, it's going to be in Asia, although some of that inventory is in suppliers' hands as well. We talked about an action we're taking to reduce some of our inventory by idling facilities, but some of our competitors, we believe, may have excess inventories as well. So that would be -- it's hard to say where that might be. That might be in the region of Asia, it might be at their production sites. But that's our view now, and we're obviously watching very closely as we look towards a recovery, to see that peak and then begin to get drawn down as demand improves. The question is, of course, as Scott indicated, visibility to that demand improvement at this point.

Robin，我是 Eric Norris。我會盡我所能回答。我無法提供你所要求的全部細部拆分。但我們確實看到在第二季期間，通路庫存持續增加。這是因為，如大家所知，汽車製造商在第二季有相當一段時間停工。我們在工業領域的需求也轉弱。而當這些汽車製造商復工時，其復工產能利用率也較低。因此，精製鋰產品的庫存上升到超過正常水準 5 個月以上的程度。這主要——幾乎完全——是在電池通路。我的意思是，工業端可能也有一些庫存，但正在被消化。所以主要就是電池通路。而目前電池產業大多在亞洲。因此就地區而言，庫存會在亞洲，雖然其中一部分也在供應商手上。我們談到過一項行動：透過讓部分設施停工來降低我們的一些庫存，但我們認為部分競爭對手也可能有過剩庫存。因此那會是——很難說那些庫存在哪裡。可能在亞洲地區，也可能在他們的生產基地。但這是我們目前的看法；而且在我們展望復甦時，我們顯然會非常密切地觀察，看看庫存何時見頂，並在需求改善時開始去化。當然，問題在於，如 Scott 所指出的，目前對需求改善的能見度。

Great. And just one quick follow-up. So can you just quantify the magnitude of the reduced production is about a few thousand tons or...

很好。再追問一個很快的問題。你能否量化一下減產的幅度，大約是幾千噸還是……

Yes. So the production that we're talking about is for -- is going to be down for, call it, the beginning of September, through -- at this point the end of the year, depending on market conditions. So approximately 4 months of production on a plant that annually -- it was really driven by our Kings Mountain facility, which produces hydroxide. What supplies that plant is silver peak, the carbonate that feeds it. So on an end hydroxide basis, annualized, you're talking about 4,000 to 5,000 tons a year. And so we're going to be down for 4 months of that, at this point.

是的。所以我們所談的產量是——將會停產，我們先這麼說，從9月初開始，並且——就目前而言到年底，視市場狀況而定。所以大約是4個月的產量，這座工廠的年產量——其實主要是由我們的 Kings Mountain 廠區所帶動，該廠生產氫氧化鋰。供應那座工廠的是 Silver Peak，也就是餵料用的碳酸鋰。因此以最終氫氧化鋰口徑年化來看，你談的是每年4,000到5,000噸。所以我們將會停掉其中4個月的產量，就目前而言。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Mike Sison。

Nice quarter. In terms of -- you have a nice slide talking about the potential demand for lithium out to 2025. I think the base case was 1 million tons. Can you sort of walk us through what you think that long-term potential is? Has it changed materially? Is it about the same? And how do you think that will work through over the next couple of years?

這一季表現不錯。就——你們有一張很好的投影片在談到2025年鋰的潛在需求。我想基準情境是100萬噸。你能否帶我們梳理一下你們認為長期的潛力是什麼？它有沒有出現實質性的變化？還是差不多？以及你認為未來幾年它會如何演變？

So I'll start with that, and then Eric can fill in the details to the extent we can. So we've said and we still believe kind of the demand profile has been pushed out by about a year. So and so we don't think kind of the long-term demand is affected, but the curve has changed, probably steepened, but it's been pushed out a year during this. And we continue to watch the forecast and how the EV penetration happens around the world to see if it changes that profile. But today, we believe it's the -- kind of the curve 4, 5 years out. The volume is the same. Curve is a little steeper to get there and starts about a year later.

我先回答這個，然後 Eric 可以在我們能說的範圍內補充細節。我們一直說、也仍然相信，需求曲線大致被往後推遲了大約一年。所以我們不認為長期需求受到影響，但曲線形狀改變了，可能更陡峭，但在這段期間整體往後推了一年。我們會持續觀察預測，以及全球電動車滲透率的發展，看看是否會改變那個輪廓。但就今天而言，我們相信——大概是往後4、5年的那條曲線。總量相同。為了達到那個水準，曲線會更陡一些，而且大約晚一年開始。

Yes, I don't know -- there's not much to add to that comment. But if you do look at Slide 12, you can see the steepness of that curve in the following way. We've said that demand we thought would materialize in 2020 before the crisis, that growth has shifted a year. Originally, we thought that'd be 4.1 million vehicles, if you want to put on a vehicle -- electric vehicle basis. And so that didn't materialize. We're looking -- IHS is currently forecasting something closer to 3 million vehicles. But if you look out to the next year, where we said that demand has shifted to, it's 5.2 is what IHS being. So that's obviously higher than 4.1. So that's the point at which this curve is getting steeper. We believe that the stimulus measures that have been added on top of the already measures that are there on the OEMS, the CO2 reductions. Now you have consumer-based incentives in Europe that have been added on top of those are part of what's driving the steepness of that curve and allow us to stay on that projection. We've got a detailed modeling of it all the way up to 2025 and it's right around that 1 million met tons that we talked about for the industry driven by electric vehicles.

是的，我不知道——其實沒有太多可以補充的。但如果你看第12頁投影片，你可以用以下方式看到那條曲線的陡峭程度。我們說過，在危機之前我們認為會在2020年實現的需求，那個成長已經往後移了一年。原本我們認為那會是410萬輛車，如果你要用車輛——電動車——作為口徑。所以那並沒有實現。我們看到——IHS 目前的預測更接近300萬輛。但如果你看向下一年，也就是我們說需求移轉到的那一年，IHS 的數字是520萬輛。所以那顯然高於410萬。這就是曲線開始變得更陡的地方。我們相信，刺激措施是在既有措施之上再加碼的——對 OEM 的 CO2 減排要求。現在你又有在歐洲新增的、以消費者為基礎的激勵措施，疊加在原有措施之上，這些都是推動曲線變陡、並讓我們能維持該預測的一部分原因。我們已經做了直到2025年的詳細模型推演，整體大約就是我們談到的、由電動車帶動的全產業約100萬公噸（metric tons）。

Got it. And then, Eric, as a quick follow-up. The price concessions, how does that get negotiated? As I recall, that was sort of a fourth quarter event, right? So can you sort of walk through, kind of, the semantics of what will happen with those price concessions as you head into '21?

了解。然後，Eric，快速追問一下。價格讓步是怎麼談出來的？我記得那算是第四季的事件，對吧？所以你能否帶我們走一遍，從語意上來說，當你們邁向2021年時，這些價格讓步會怎麼發展？

Yes. You're right, Mike. It's a bit early to say what's going to happen. I can say this is we were doing the same thing last year. We were looking at a falling set of market prices last year, and we're trying to figure out how we're going to approach the year, and that's what led to the 2021 year concessions on these long-term agreements. As we sit here and look at 2021, the price in the market now is far lower than it was a year ago. So that, I guess, would be the negative on this. The positive in that negotiation is what I just talked about, is the steepness of that growth curve suspected or projected for next year, which there are other indications that are -- that is happening. If you look at some of the Korean automotive public releases about what they see -- not the Korean automotive, excuse me, the Korean battery producers, what they're projecting for their second half of the year, they're already starting to see and believe they're going to start to see the leading edge of that demand in terms of demand for their product. So that -- I can't tell you how the negotiation is going to play out in terms of the exact way price will look in 2021. As Ken said earlier, that's the that's the big question. But -- and those are the positives and the negatives. Our LTAs have helped, right? And we use them as part of the commercial negotiation to find a good solution going forward that honors the spirit of agreements we have with them, right, with these customers. So we'll be able to give more detail later in the year or earlier in the coming year.

是的。你說得對，Mike。現在說會發生什麼還有點早。我可以說的是，我們去年也在做同樣的事。去年我們面對一組持續下跌的市場價格，並試圖判斷我們要如何切入新的一年，而這也導致了這些長期協議在2021年度的讓價（concessions）。以我們現在坐在這裡看2021年，市場價格遠低於一年前。所以我想，這算是負面因素。談判中的正面因素，就是我剛才提到的：明年那條成長曲線被認為或預測會更陡峭，而且也有其他跡象顯示——正在發生。如果你看一些韓國汽車產業的公開說法——不是韓國汽車，抱歉，是韓國電池製造商——他們對下半年所做的預測，他們已經開始看到、並且相信他們將開始看到那個需求的前緣，體現在對他們產品的需求上。所以——我無法告訴你談判會如何進行，尤其是2021年的價格最終會長什麼樣。如 Ken 先前所說，那是——那是最大的問題。但——以上就是正面與負面因素。我們的長期協議（LTA）確實有幫助，對吧？我們也把它們作為商務談判的一部分，去找到一個向前看的良好解決方案，並尊重我們與這些客戶之間協議的精神，對吧。所以我們會在今年稍晚或明年初提供更多細節。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jim Sheehan。

So can you talk about what downside and upside are from your segment guidance? So it looks like your full year EBITDA -- sorry, your full company third quarter EBITDA guidance varies significantly from the segments. I'm just trying to figure out either whether you have downsides and upsides baked in? Or is this coming from corporate and all other?

所以你能談談你們分部指引的下行與上行空間嗎？看起來你們全年 EBITDA——抱歉，你們公司整體第三季 EBITDA 指引，與各分部加總相比差異很大。我只是想弄清楚，你們是否把下行情境與上行情境都納入了？還是這差異來自公司層級與其他項目？

Yes, Jim, this is Scott. So if you look at the segments, for lithium, we're expecting a range of being down sequentially by around 10% to 20%. So that kind of bounds what's happening there. Most of that's going to be volume related. Overall, for lithium. For bromine, it's relatively tight right now. They've got pretty good visibility into their order book, at least through the end of August and so flat sequentially. It could be down a little bit or up a little bit, but flat sequentially.

是的，Jim，我是 Scott。如果你看各分部，就鋰業務而言，我們預期季比會下滑約10%到20%的區間。所以那大致界定了那邊的情況。其中大部分會與銷量有關。整體來看，對鋰業務而言。至於溴業務，目前相對緊俏。他們對訂單簿的能見度相當不錯，至少到8月底，因此季比大致持平。可能小幅下滑或小幅上升，但季比持平。

And then catalyst is expected to be down between 50% and 60% on a year-over-year basis, really on the back of hydro processing orders and the timing of those as well as the recovery of FCC on the back of increased fuel demand globally. And so that kind of balance the range.

然後，催化劑業務預期在年比基礎上下降50%到60%，主要是因為加氫處理（hydro processing）訂單及其時點，以及在全球燃料需求增加帶動下，FCC（流體催化裂化）業務的復甦時點。因此這些因素大致平衡出那個區間。

Corporate is pretty well bound in with the cost reductions that we have out there and the small business fine chemistry services is doing well in the U.S.

公司層級方面，在我們已推出的成本削減措施下，範圍相當可控；另外，小型事業的精細化學品服務在美國表現良好。

And as it pertains to capital allocation, you've listed M&A in your slide on capital allocation. Maybe you could talk about the pipeline what type of acquisitions you might be considering? What size? And what region in the world? Or is that process really slowed down the same way that your asset sale process is?

另外，關於資本配置，你們在資本配置的投影片中列了併購（M&A）。也許你可以談談併購管線，你們可能考慮哪些類型的收購？規模多大？以及在全球哪個地區？或者這個流程是否也像你們的資產出售流程一樣，實際上已經放慢了？

Yes. So we continue to look for those opportunities, but they're going to be bolt-on, nothing dramatic. And -- but I would say it's probably fair to say that process has slowed down, but we continue to look for opportunities in the down market, and that would probably -- most likely be around lithium conversion assets that were available in the markets where we find that attractive.

是的。所以我們會持續尋找那些機會，但會是補強型（bolt-on）的，不會有什麼戲劇性的動作。而且——但我想可以說，這個流程可能確實放慢了，不過我們仍會在下行市場中持續尋找機會，而那大概——最有可能會是在我們認為具吸引力的市場中、可取得的鋰轉換資產。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。

This is Angel Castillo on for Vincent. I just had a quick question. In terms of the technical grade, how much is that [link in] demand down this year versus battery-grade demand? And how fast do you expect technical grade to come back? And kind of what are the signposts that we should be watching to track that?

我是代 Vincent 提問的 Angel Castillo。我有個簡短的問題。就技術級（technical grade）而言，今年相較於電池級需求，[link in] 的需求下滑了多少？你們預期技術級會多快回升？以及我們應該關注哪些指標來追蹤這件事？

It's a smaller market for us. I would say -- this is Eric speaking. I would say that the technical grade market, if you look at any industrial indicator for a recession. It's going to be representative of what that technical grade market is doing. I've seen some external statistics that say, that the glass and ceramics industry -- as an example, is contracted by 25% in the second quarter. So that is -- that's not obviously inconsistent with what's happened economically around the world. So that's the order of magnitude of what we're seeing. It's a small part of our business, right? It's less than 20% of our sales overall, and it's very mixed. It's not just glass and ceramics, there are other segments that are doing better than in the glass and ceramics sector. We aren't seeing any sign of recovery in that yet as we roll here into the third quarter. And as what we expect in the fourth quarter, again. That just comes on to the header of what we talked about earlier. It's very murky and hard to tell at this point, which is why we're cautious to give more detailed guidance on Q4.

對我們來說那是比較小的市場。我想——我是 Eric。我會說，技術級市場，如果你看任何反映景氣衰退的工業指標，它都會代表技術級市場正在發生的狀況。我看到一些外部統計指出，例如玻璃與陶瓷產業在第二季——收縮了 25%。所以那——顯然與全球經濟發生的情況並不矛盾。因此我們看到的量級大概就是這樣。這是我們業務中很小的一部分，對吧？它占我們整體銷售不到 20%，而且組成非常混合。不只是玻璃與陶瓷，還有其他一些細分市場表現比玻璃與陶瓷更好。我們在進入第三季時，還沒有看到任何復甦的跡象。至於我們對第四季的預期，也是如此。這就回到我們先前談到的主題。目前非常混沌、很難判斷，因此我們對於提供更細的第四季指引會比較謹慎。

Understood. And then in terms of the idling facilities, what is the cost of temporarily idling these? And how quickly can they both be taken down and brought back up? And I guess just part of that, what is kind of the lowest that utilization rates that they can run at before it becomes a unit cost [prohibited?]

了解。那關於暫時停工（idling）的設施，暫時停工的成本是多少？它們停下來以及重新啟動各需要多快？另外，這些設施在利用率降到多低之前，才會變成單位成本[prohibited?]？

Yes. I'll take the cost of idling. It's relatively small. So these are smaller plants with a relatively small workforce. So really, in total, less than $10 million to actually idle the plant itself. And Eric, if you want to just talk about utilization and recovery.

是的。我來回答停工成本。相對不大。這些是較小的工廠，人力規模也相對小。所以合計來說，讓工廠本身停工的成本不到 1,000 萬美元。Eric，如果你願意的話，請談談利用率與復工。

Yes. We just told the workforce yesterday about this, right? And we expect to be fully idled safely down by September 1. So that gives you some idea of the down, and then there will be a comparable period to come up, once we see the demand signals to come back up. It is -- I'm sorry, the second question, I guess, was utilization. This is a fairly small part of our mix, but an important part of being able to supply 2021, we believe, provided recovery takes root as we expected to. So it's -- I guess, on a utilization basis, it's not a lot, but here's a point that I think is also implied in your question. It is not -- this is a product that, given the weakness in the market, while our contracts are being upheld, any opportunities outside of those and the opportunities in China and the opportunities in industrial markets is limited for all the reasons we've discussed because of the contraction in the marketplace. So this is a product that would have gone to inventory. So there's not an EBITDA impact in our guidance associated with what of our guidance otherwise would have been associated with this. This is just a reduction in inventory. And during this period of time that we're down, we'll continue to make investments to prepare these assets to run full out when the recovery does occur, which we, again, hope will be and anticipate will be in 2021.

好的。我們昨天才把這件事告知員工，對吧？我們預期會在 9 月 1 日前安全地完全停工。這可以讓你大概了解停下來需要多久；而一旦我們看到需求訊號回來，重新啟動也會需要一段相當的時間。那個——抱歉，第二個問題我想是利用率。這在我們的產品組合中占比不大，但我們認為它對於能夠供應 2021 年是重要的一環，前提是復甦如我們預期般扎根。所以——我想就利用率而言，影響不大，但我也理解你問題裡隱含的一點。這不是——在市場疲弱的情況下，雖然我們的合約仍在履行，但除了合約以外的機會、以及在中國與工業市場的機會，基於我們討論過的各種原因（市場收縮），對所有人都很有限。因此這個產品原本會進入庫存。所以在我們的指引中，這件事不會帶來 EBITDA 影響；也就是說，若不做這件事，我們的指引本來也不會因為它而不同。這只是降低庫存。而在我們停工的這段期間，我們會持續投資，讓這些資產在復甦發生時能夠全速運轉；我們再次希望並預期復甦會在 2021 年出現。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess, I just wanted to get your perspective on lithium markets. I understand that your overall view has maybe been pushed out a year. But has there been any change in, I guess, how you're looking at supply demand? I mean, I appreciate that the automakers may not be coming back at full, but are they potentially coming back with greater focus on EVs and if so, would that be a positive tailwind for you? So that's my question on lithium. And then I had one more question on catalysts. If you could maybe just characterize how you're thinking about that business. On the surface, it looks like there could be some structural impairment that could last for quite a while. I guess, is that a fair characterization? So yes, maybe you can just give your medium-term thoughts on both businesses.

我想我只是想了解你們對鋰市場的看法。我理解你們的整體觀點可能往後延了一年。但在你們看待供需的方式上，有沒有任何改變？我的意思是，我理解汽車製造商可能不會完全恢復，但他們是否可能在回來時更聚焦於電動車（EV）？如果是，這是否會成為對你們有利的正面推力？這是我關於鋰的問題。然後我還有一個關於觸媒（catalysts）業務的問題。你們能否大致描述一下你們如何看待那個業務？表面上看起來，可能存在某種結構性損害，可能會持續相當長一段時間。我這樣描述是否合理？所以，是的，也許你們可以談談對這兩個業務的中期看法。

So again, I'll comment on that. And Eric can fill in if I miss the piece on lithium. So as we said before, we really don't think it's changed the dynamic for the EV market long term. So we kind of fundamentally believe in the EV market and the lithium demand that's going to go into that. So the one thing that has happened, I guess, that is quite different is their incentives becoming -- they're becoming more incentives associated with electric vehicles, and that's primarily in Europe. That's probably -- it's going to drive that a little differently than it was before. So previously, you didn't have the dip, but the curve was a year earlier. The demand coming out now you've got a dip, but comes back a little stronger, primarily on those incentives. And trying to figure out exactly what that curve looks like. We just -- we don't know. And regardless of incentives and the demand that's going to happen. I mean, the consumers still have to buy cars, and that's the fundamental thing we don't really know. And I think the people forecasting that don't know as well. So Eric, anything on top of that?

我再回應一下。如果我漏掉鋰的部分，Eric 可以補充。如同我們之前說的，我們真的不認為這改變了電動車市場的長期動態。所以我們在根本上仍相信電動車市場，以及將帶動的鋰需求。我想有一件相當不同的事情是，與電動車相關的激勵措施變得——變得更多了，而這主要發生在歐洲。那大概——會以不同於以往的方式推動需求。所以以前，你不會看到下滑，但曲線會早一年出現。現在的需求是先出現一個下滑，但在這些激勵措施的帶動下回升會更強一些。至於要精確判斷那條曲線長什麼樣子，我們就是——不知道。而且不管有沒有激勵措施、以及需求會如何發生，我的意思是，消費者仍然得買車，這才是我們真正不知道的根本因素。我想做預測的人也同樣不知道。Eric，還有要補充的嗎？

No, nothing to add, other than you just -- you all have to be conscious of the fact that just like the impact that happened in the second quarter aren't really hitting us into the third quarter, so to the recovery. Just as I said, we have the Korean manufacturers out saying that they see a significant uptick in their sales. That's probably and hopefully related to these -- what's going on in Europe. And there's obviously a corresponding lag, particularly with excess channel inventories there for it to come back and hit us. So that's why in the longer term, we're pretty optimistic. But in the next 6 months, it's very hard to say. Very hard to say.

沒有要補充的，只是——你們都必須意識到，就像第二季發生的影響其實到第三季才真正反映到我們身上一樣，復甦也是如此。就像我說的，我們看到韓國製造商表示他們的銷售顯著回升。那可能、也希望是與——歐洲正在發生的事情有關。而且顯然會有相應的滯後，特別是那邊通路仍有過剩庫存，需要一段時間才會回到我們這裡。所以從長期來看，我們相當樂觀。但在接下來 6 個月，很難說。非常難說。

Yes. And then on your catalyst question, kind of the same approach. I'll do a high level, Raphael can fill in. But -- so oil prices are down and then the miles driven are pretty dramatic change. And you could see on that slide, I think it was Slide 12, how dramatic that was, the miles driven. And that's changed that. We don't really see it changing the fundamentals of that business long term, but it is going to take some time for that to come back. Before people go back to work and commute, and maybe they don't commute as much as they did after this. There's maybe less miles driven, maybe more vacation by driving rather than flying. But then again, that's air travel. So we think that's been pushed out for some period of time, but peak oil probably it doesn't change. We knew that was coming. In some period of time, has that been pulled forward by a little bit, we don't know that. Most of the forecast say maybe a year, maybe not. So I don't think it fundamentally changes the business that we have. Clean fuels continue to be important. Our businesses are based on innovation around clean fuels. So we don't think it fundamentally changes it or structurally changes it, but it might change kind of the dynamics of where our markets are geographically and which of our customers do better, do worse during this.

是的。然後關於你對催化劑的問題，做法大致相同。我先從高層次說明，Raphael 可以再補充。不過——油價下跌，而行駛里程的變化相當劇烈。你可以在那張投影片上看到，我想是第 12 張投影片，行駛里程的變化有多劇烈。而這也改變了情況。我們不太認為這會在長期上改變該業務的基本面，但確實需要一些時間才能恢復。在人們回到工作崗位並開始通勤之前，而且也許在這之後他們通勤不會像以前那麼多。可能行駛里程會更少，也可能更多人選擇開車度假而不是搭飛機。但那又牽涉到航空旅行。因此我們認為這被推遲了一段時間，但所謂的「石油需求峰值」大概不會因此改變。我們知道那終究會到來。至於是否在某種程度上被稍微提前了，我們不確定。大多數預測說也許是一年，也許不是。所以我不認為這會從根本上改變我們的業務。清潔燃料仍然很重要。我們的業務建立在圍繞清潔燃料的創新之上。因此我們不認為它會從根本或結構上改變，但它可能會改變我們市場在地理上的動態，以及哪些客戶在此期間表現較好、哪些較差。

Yes. This is Rafael, Arun. To add to that view, certainly, this is a time for our business to take action to mitigate the impact, whether it be cost, working capital, capital for the near-term because it has -- COVID-19 has had an acute impact on our customers and -- suppliers to our customers. That being said, as Kent said, there is a bright future for refining catalysts when positioned correctly. And our strategy is really all around positioning our business to take advantage of trends in emerging markets where fuel consumption will continue to grow beyond global peak gasoline as well as emerging chemicals applications from refineries where we already have a position of strength, and we need to advance that. So with all the challenges that COVID-19 brings, it is a great motivator for us as a company, to stay on strategy and accelerate that strategy to be in more resilient spaces as we progress.

是的。Arun，我是 Rafael。補充上述觀點，毫無疑問，現在是我們業務採取行動以減輕影響的時候，無論是成本、營運資金，或是短期資本支出，因為——COVID-19 已對我們的客戶以及——我們客戶的供應商造成急性衝擊。話雖如此，正如 Kent 所說，只要定位得當，煉油催化劑仍有光明的未來。而我們的策略核心，就是讓業務做好定位，以把握新興市場的趨勢：即使全球汽油需求達到峰值之後，燃料消費仍將持續成長；同時也把握來自煉油廠的新興化學品應用——我們在那裡已具備優勢地位，並需要進一步推進。因此，儘管 COVID-19 帶來諸多挑戰，它也強力促使我們作為一家公司堅守策略，並加速推進該策略，讓我們在前進過程中進入更具韌性的領域。

Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Mike Harrison。

Rafael, maybe kind of continuing on the catalyst discussion, can you talk about the FCC pricing outlook? I believe you saw pricing in your catalyst business overall declined by 4%. I'm not sure if that's pricing or mix, but are you seeing resilient FCC pricing? And are you seeing any trading down as you look at your overall mix in catalysts?

Rafael，延續一下催化劑的討論，你能談談 FCC 的定價展望嗎？我相信你們的催化劑業務整體價格下滑了 4%。我不確定那是價格還是產品組合的影響，但你們看到 FCC 定價仍具韌性嗎？另外，從你們催化劑的整體組合來看，有沒有看到客戶「向下替代」（改用較低階產品）的情況？

Mike, thanks for the question. So when we look at it, pricing does -- there has been some downward movement on price, but not for the value-oriented products that are the bulk of our portfolio. So as you know, in the FCC industry, you certainly have contracted business. You have business that's not on contract, and then there are trials. And trials are a period of time within a contract when a competitor can bring a catalyst into a refinery to test performance. Trial pricing is lower. So to the extent that within our mix, we have trials and we are pursuing trials with new refineries or refineries we don't have. Yes, that pricing is going to be lower than what we've typically seen. But for the business that's our core business on performance products, that pricing has been stable. And I would even think -- if I looked at prior quarter and looking ahead as we are negotiating for contracts, where we're demonstrating value or increased value, we're able to gain on price. So I would say it's sort of the mix between trial pricing and contract pricing and what we generate on value has the biggest impact on that.

Mike，謝謝你的問題。我們來看這件事，價格確實——有一些下行，但並不是發生在以價值為導向、且占我們產品組合大宗的產品上。如你所知，在 FCC 產業中，你當然有合約業務。也有非合約業務，另外還有試用（trial）。試用是在合約期間的一段時間，競爭對手可以把催化劑帶進煉油廠測試其表現。試用的價格較低。因此，就我們的組合而言，若包含試用，且我們正在與新的煉油廠或我們尚未供應的煉油廠推進試用，是的，那些價格會低於我們過去通常看到的水準。但對於我們核心的高性能產品合約業務而言，定價一直很穩定。我甚至認為——如果我看上一季並展望未來，當我們在談判合約、並證明價值或更高價值時，我們是能在價格上有所提升的。所以我會說，影響最大的其實是試用定價與合約定價之間的組合，以及我們在價值創造上所能取得的回報。

All right. And then on lithium, I was wondering if you can give a little more color on where you're seeing the greatest concern in terms of inventories in the lithium channel and in the battery channel? Is it with finished catalyst material at the battery makers? Is it hydroxide? Is it carbonate? Spodumene? Maybe some more detail there?

好的。然後關於鋰，我想請你再多提供一些細節：在鋰的通路以及電池通路中，你們最擔心的庫存問題主要出現在哪裡？是在電池製造商端的成品正極材料嗎？是氫氧化鋰嗎？是碳酸鋰嗎？還是鋰輝石（spodumene）？能否再多說一些？

Mike, it's Eric here. So look, it's -- I would say we have -- and you can sort of interpret this by the action we've taken with our plants. It's both hydroxide and carbonate. And it's with our customers, be they cathode customers or battery accounts. And with -- we believe, with suppliers in the channel. We understand that there are probably potentially even some excess inventories from a cathode standpoint. So I mean, you have an industry that during the second quarter screeched to a halt, right? Nothing was happening for -- depending on the plan, it could have been a month or more in terms of the OEM closures. So it's in the battery channel, and it's at various points in the battery channel. And so I think it's -- that's about the most color I can give you at this point in time. Spodumene is -- there continues to be excess spodumene in China. Some of that is below grade spodumene and meaning below 6%. Some of it's even the DSO variety, which is just raw rock that's not processed. And some of it by its purchasers has purchased prior high prices for spodumene rock, so it's uneconomic in the current situation. So there's some excess spodumene there as well. That is a lot more opaque and hard to tell exactly how much, however.

Mike，我是 Eric。你看——我會說我們看到的是——而你也可以從我們對工廠採取的行動來解讀——氫氧化鋰和碳酸鋰兩者都有。而且是在我們的客戶端，不論是正極材料客戶或電池客戶。同時——我們也認為在通路中的供應商端也有。我們了解，從正極材料的角度看，可能甚至存在一些過剩庫存。也就是說，這個產業在第二季幾乎是急煞停擺，對吧？在 OEM 關廠期間，幾乎什麼都沒發生——視工廠而定，可能是一個月或更久。所以庫存問題是在電池通路中，而且分布在電池通路的不同環節。因此我想——就目前而言，這大概是我能提供的最多細節。至於鋰輝石——中國仍然有過剩的鋰輝石。其中一部分是低品位鋰輝石，也就是低於 6%。還有一部分甚至是 DSO 類型，也就是未經加工處理的原礦石。另外，有些買方是在先前鋰輝石礦石價格較高時買進的，因此在目前情況下不具經濟性。所以那裡也存在一些過剩鋰輝石。不過那部分的資訊更不透明，也更難精確判斷到底有多少。

Our next question comes from Matt DeYoe with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Matt DeYoe。

I wanted to hit a little bit on the Catalyst trial pricing issue. I mean, why are your trial prices lower? Are refineries just kind of trialing lower quality products? Is the way to temporarily lower costs? Do you see risks that these get adopted because refineries don't need better utilization rates right now that your higher FCCs would deliver?

我想稍微談一下催化劑試用定價的問題。我的意思是，為什麼你們的試用價格會更低？是因為煉油廠只是試用較低品質的產品嗎？這是一種暫時降低成本的方法嗎？你是否看到風險：由於煉油廠現在不需要你們較高階 FCC 催化劑所帶來的更高利用率，這些較低價的產品可能會被採用？

Matthew, this is Rafael. The -- some of it has to do with just the dynamic that every -- the market is down, and every catalyst producer would like to look for new volume opportunities and the most accessible way to go and do that is to participate in trials. So I think the activity and the eagerness of the market around trials has increased. And when in that competitive space, certainly, folks are -- and Albemarle included, are willing to price lower than what we normally would still at positive margin to participate in a trial to prove out value to a refinery over what they might already have with their current supplier. That being said, with trials, I mean you get in the door, to some extent, that trial sets a benchmark for future pricing, but most refineries understand that pricing and catalysts is very much tied to value. And if you're generating value, over time, you're able to raise the price to what you're able to justify with your performance. Albemarle has been very good at doing that. And where we participate in markets related to max chemicals, bottoms cracking, which is really our strength within FCC. We're able to demonstrate value and capture price over time.

Matthew，我是Rafael。這——其中一部分與一種動態有關：市場下行，而每一家觸媒生產商都希望尋找新的銷量機會，而最容易切入的方式就是參與試用（trial）。所以我認為市場對試用的活動與熱度都提高了。而在那樣的競爭環境中，當然，大家——包括Albemarle在內——都願意以比我們通常更低的價格、但仍維持正毛利的水準來參與試用，以向煉油廠證明相較於其現有供應商的產品，我們能帶來的價值。話雖如此，試用的確能讓你在某種程度上「進門」，而且試用也會為未來定價設下一個基準，但多數煉油廠都明白，觸媒的定價很大程度上是與價值掛鉤的。如果你能創造價值，隨著時間推移，你就能把價格提高到能以績效表現合理化的水準。Albemarle在這方面一直做得很好。而且在我們參與的市場——例如與最大化化學品（max chemicals）、底油裂解（bottoms cracking）相關的領域——這其實是我們在FCC中的強項。我們能夠證明價值，並隨時間推移取得更好的價格。

Okay. And then if I were to just circle back on the excess spodumene comment. I know there's a fair amount that you mentioned below 6 in this DSO, but how much excess spodumene is out there that is above 6% and like is feasible product? I think that was sized before at about 3 to 6 months of excess inventory. Is that still the case? Has any of that been worked down at all?

好的。那我再回到你提到的過剩鋰輝石（spodumene）的評論。我知道你提到在這份DSO裡有相當一部分是低於6%的，但市面上高於6%且屬於可行產品的過剩鋰輝石到底有多少？我記得之前估算大約是3到6個月的過剩庫存。現在仍然是這樣嗎？那部分有被消化掉一些嗎？

I'll have to go back to the kind -- this is Eric, again. The comment maybe for, it is incredibly opaque. And even to the point where sometimes inventory is counted twice depending on who you're talking to. So I really couldn't tell you. I can tell you that 6% -- the 6% spodumene that has been produced for integrated producers. Like Albemarle, our partner and obviously, competitors as well Tianqi, potentially for some of the other producers that are integrated like Kemerton. I doubt that they would be carrying a lot of excess inventories because we've been -- I'm assuming that those competitors are doing the same thing that Albemarle is doing, which is we're trying as a as a leader in the industry trying to assist the challenge by reducing inventories and the output, as you can see from our equity income is substantially reduced from Talison. A big part of that actually is Tianqi and the challenges they've had. So it's -- that 6%, which is very high-quality rock, that, I think, has been coming down. But as for the rest, the majority of which is below 6% or barely 6%, that's probably where more the excess is because that's the less economic product in today's market with today's prices.

我得回頭再確認一下——我是Eric。這方面可能——資訊非常不透明。甚至有時候，視你問的是誰，庫存可能會被重複計算。所以我真的沒辦法告訴你。我可以說的是，6%——也就是為一體化生產商所生產的6%鋰輝石。像Albemarle、我們的合作夥伴，當然還有競爭對手，例如天齊（Tianqi），以及可能其他一體化的生產商如Kemerton。我懷疑他們不會持有大量過剩庫存，因為我們一直——我假設那些競爭對手也在做和Albemarle一樣的事：作為產業領導者，我們正試圖透過降低庫存與產出來協助解決這個挑戰；你也可以從我們來自Talison的權益法收益大幅下降看出來。其中很大一部分其實是天齊以及他們所面臨的挑戰所致。所以——那個6%（非常高品質的礦石），我認為一直在下降。但至於其餘部分——大多低於6%或勉強到6%——過剩可能更多是在那裡，因為在當前市場與價格下，那是經濟性較差的產品。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的Bob Koort。

A couple of lithium questions. How do you guys think about reconciling what seems to be some odd financial math when I guess in China, we're seeing battery-grade material under 6,000. You got spodumene market prices under 400. And I think, Eric, you're talking about inventories might be bloated everywhere. So can your competitors in China make money? Is there the risk that they try to liquidate those inventories more aggressively in a weak period? Do you see a bifurcated market? Is China different than Japan and Korea? Can you just give us a little color there?

有幾個鋰的問題。你們怎麼看待、並調和看起來有點奇怪的財務算術：我想在中國，我們看到電池級材料價格低於6,000。鋰輝石市場價格低於400。而且我想，Eric，你提到庫存可能到處都偏高。那你們在中國的競爭對手還能賺錢嗎？在景氣疲弱期間，他們是否有風險會更積極地清庫存？你們看到市場出現分化嗎？中國和日本、韓國有什麼不同嗎？能否請你們多提供一些背景說明？

Well, on -- Bob, it's Eric here. On the first part of your question, I would say that what you're seeing is nothing has changed in the cost curves that we talked about. You go back and look at the Investor Day, look at where we thought marginal cash costs are between $6 and $7 in that range. That hasn't changed. There's nothing that's changed in that regard. And so effectively, at prices you're seeing in the China market now spot prices, the whole white hand side of the cost curve is underwater. They're not able to make money. They'll lose money selling product. So I can't explain why that's happening other than it's a market that has gone through a compression that we talked about because of the COVID crisis in the second quarter, that start working its way out of as we go into the second half of the year. And you have lower cost producers, particularly on the carbonate side. And remember, China is largely a carbonate market who have lower cost positions, brine-based rock -- or brine-based carbonate has a much lower cost position are able to sell well below the cash cost of those who are rock-based producers in the region. So I think that's what's happening. It sort of shows sort of the stress in the system. Will Chinese producers start to unload inventory? I think potentially in a desperation move, but I think at this point, most of that rock is sitting stationary until market values improve at this point. You had a second part of your question -- oh, it was about -- was there a difference between China and elsewhere? No -- yes, there's a difference. Again, it's largely a carbonate market. More of the high nickel chemistry today that hydroxide base has made outside of China. Some of it is maybe produced in China, but most of the demand for that is outside China. And of course, there are structural differences. There's VAT difference between China and inside and outside of China as well. But again, I don't know that anything has changed other than the fact that we've had a demand crisis, and that's really put pressure on the system.

嗯——Bob，我是Eric。就你問題的第一部分，我會說你看到的情況是：我們談過的成本曲線其實沒有改變。你回去看投資人日（Investor Day），看看我們當時認為邊際現金成本大約在6到7美元的區間。那沒有變。在這方面沒有任何改變。因此，實際上以你現在在中國市場看到的現貨價格來看，成本曲線右側那一整段都在水下。他們無法賺錢。賣產品會虧錢。所以我無法解釋為什麼會發生，除了這個市場在第二季因COVID危機而出現我們談過的壓縮，並且在進入下半年時開始逐步走出來。而且你有低成本生產商，特別是在碳酸鋰（carbonate）端。記住，中國主要是碳酸鋰市場；在成本位置上較低的生產者——鹵水基（brine-based）的碳酸鋰成本位置遠低於該區域以礦石為基礎（rock-based）的生產者——能夠以遠低於後者現金成本的價格銷售。所以我認為這就是正在發生的事。這某種程度上顯示了系統中的壓力。中國生產商會開始卸貨庫存嗎？我認為在走投無路的情況下可能會，但我想目前大部分礦石都還是靜置著，直到市場價值改善為止。你問題的第二部分——喔，是關於——中國與其他地區是否不同？不——是的，確實有差異。同樣地，中國主要是碳酸鋰市場。目前更多高鎳化學體系所需的氫氧化鋰（hydroxide）是在中國以外生產的。有一部分可能在中國生產，但其需求大多在中國以外。當然，也存在結構性差異。中國境內與境外之間也有增值稅（VAT）的差異。但同樣地，我不認為有任何改變，除了我們遭遇了需求危機，而這確實對系統造成了壓力。

And Eric, you mentioned that your LTAs have largely held. I think maybe the last couple of quarters, you talked about you want to sell to your customers in the manner that they want to buy in terms of contract dynamics. What's your expectation for the desire for those LTAs as you start to get the exponential part of that demand curve? Because it would seem the cathode folks are looking at this volatility in pricing and obviously, resets on pricing. But then you've got some pretty dangerous implications for them if the industry curtails its expansion activity, where there may be a scarcity value sometime down the road. So I guess what I'm asking is we could game plan it. You think you'll have a lot more LTAs at fixed prices 2 or 3 years from now or a lot fewer because your customers are maybe moving away from that. Can you give me your sense of how this market develops from a very weak pricing period to a potentially very tight market in a few years?

Eric，你提到你們的長期協議（LTA）大多仍維持住了。我想也許在過去幾季，你們談到希望以客戶想要的方式來賣給他們，尤其是在合約機制方面。當需求曲線進入指數型成長的那一段時，你對這些LTA需求意願的預期是什麼？因為看起來正極材料（cathode）廠在觀察這種價格波動，且顯然會有價格重置。但如果產業縮減擴產活動，對他們而言可能會有相當危險的含意——未來某個時點可能出現稀缺溢價。所以我想問的是，我們可以做情境推演：你認為兩三年後會有更多固定價格的LTA，還是會更少，因為客戶可能正在遠離那種模式？你能談談你對這個市場如何從非常疲弱的價格期，發展到幾年後可能非常緊俏的看法嗎？

Well, I don't think the security of supply and the notion of that has changed. But we do see our contracts starting to evolve from there. Do you want to comment, Ken?

嗯，我不認為供應安全以及這個概念本身有改變。但我們確實看到合約開始從那裡演變。Ken，你要補充嗎？

Yes. I would say that security and how our customers look out a year or 2 and looking for guaranteed supply out in that time frame is part of that dynamic. And we -- but we're seeing it as a portfolio with the percentage, and there'll be those long-term contracts, but with slightly different terms across the portfolio. Some would guaranteed promises of supply a couple of years out and some without that. And some more spot based and others more contracted with a formula that may indicate spot, but not move with spot.

是的。我會說，安全性以及我們的客戶如何以未來 1 到 2 年為展望、並在那段期間尋求有保障的供應，是這個動態的一部分。而我們——我們把它視為一個投資組合，按比例配置；其中會有那些長期合約，但在整個組合中條款會略有不同。有些會保證在未來幾年提供供應承諾，有些則沒有。有些更偏現貨，另一些則以公式簽約，該公式可能參考現貨，但不會隨現貨同步變動。

Yes. And what's happening now is, I think you've put your -- started to put your finger on it, Bob, is that short-termism is an interesting strategy. Now it will save you some money because spot prices are really low. But as you've also pointed out, capacity is being withdrawn from the market. The economics to support expansion are not there today in the market for almost every producer, except for the very lowest cost producers. And so there's a scarcity value at some point, it starts to shift. We think the supply chain, particularly those most invested in the supply chain, all the way to the top of it, the automotive producers, are increasingly focused and will become increasingly focused on this issue, which is why I think there's always a value for security supply. And to Ken's point, we always want a portfolio. We're always going to want some of those price buyers because that those that there's a value to that when the market goes up, right, in terms of what it means to your EBITDA, and we don't want a majority of our business there, but we'll have some of it there.

是的。而我認為現在正在發生的事情是——Bob，我覺得你已經開始點到關鍵——短期化是一個很有意思的策略。它確實能幫你省一些錢，因為現貨價格非常低。但正如你也指出的，產能正在從市場撤出。在當前市場中，幾乎對每一家生產商而言，都缺乏支撐擴產的經濟性，除了成本最低的那一小部分生產商。因此在某個時間點會出現稀缺性價值，並開始轉變。我們認為供應鏈——尤其是對供應鏈投入最多的那些環節，一直到最上游的汽車製造商——正愈來愈聚焦、且將會更加聚焦於這個議題；這也是為什麼我認為供應安全始終有其價值。而呼應 Ken 的觀點，我們一直都希望有一個投資組合。我們也會一直希望保留一部分價格型買家，因為當市場上行時，這對你的 EBITDA 意味著什麼是有價值的；我們不希望我們的業務大多數都在那裡，但會保留一部分。

Our next question comes from Matthew Skowronski with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Matthew Skowronski。

Can you give us an update on when we should expect to see sales from La Negra III and IV? And if you've changed your view at all about the timing of the ramp of additional capacity, given the demand disruption you've seen this year?

你們能否更新一下，我們應該何時會看到 La Negra III 和 IV 的銷售？鑑於你們今年看到的需求擾動，你們對新增產能爬坡時點的看法是否有任何改變？

Well, we had said last quarter, we've kind of slowed down the execution of those -- of our 2 big projects, La Negra III, IV and Kemerton. And so that really hasn't changed. We've slowed that down basically because we see demand being pushed out that gap. And we did that to kind of preserve cash, but it also matches what we see as supply demand. And obviously, given the discussion you've seen today, we're -- we've got our forecast, and we have our view, but it's a bit of a shot in the dark. But we see volume to your question from La Negra III and IV capacity coming on late next year and then the qualification period after that.

嗯，我們在上一季說過，我們已經放慢了那兩個——我們兩個大型專案 La Negra III、IV 以及 Kemerton 的執行速度。所以這點其實沒有改變。我們放慢的原因基本上是因為我們看到需求被往後推遲、出現時間落差。我們這麼做是為了保留現金，但同時也符合我們對供需的判斷。而且很明顯，基於你今天看到的討論，我們——我們有我們的預測、也有我們的看法，但某種程度上仍有點像在黑暗中摸索。但就你問的量而言，我們預期 La Negra III 和 IV 的產能會在明年較晚的時候開始貢獻，之後還會有認證期。

Our next question comes from Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Chris Kapsch。

Questions probably for Eric and slightly nuanced follow-up to some of the stuff you've talked about. But just on the comments about excess inventory in the battery supply chain, with hydroxide, there's a limited shelf life, given its hydroscopic nature and no such issue with carbonate. So I'm just wondering if your comments about inventory, if that dynamic is more pronounced for carbonate grades versus hydroxide grades. Maybe's you guided this a little bit by suggesting that some of the excess inventories at the cathodes level. But just wondering, given that a lot of these newly introduced EV models, particularly in Europe, are definitely deploying higher energy density cathodes that require hydroxide. Wondering if there is a little bit of a bifurcation in those dynamics?

問題可能是問 Eric，並且是對你們談到的一些內容做一個稍微細緻的追問。關於電池供應鏈的過剩庫存，你提到氫氧化鋰因其吸濕性而有有限的保存期限，而碳酸鋰則沒有這個問題。所以我想知道，你對庫存的評論，這種動態是否在碳酸鋰等級上比在氫氧化鋰等級上更為明顯。也許你已經稍微引導過，表示部分過剩庫存在正極材料層級。但我想問的是，考量到許多新推出的電動車型——尤其在歐洲——確實採用需要氫氧化鋰的更高能量密度正極，這些動態是否存在某種程度的分化？

So you're right. Chris, this is Eric. There is sure shelf life for hydroxide, which is -- but it's also a smaller market. So it's a more -- as we look at our customer base, the number of customers that use hydroxide to a large degree and would have high inventory levels. It's a more manageable group of folks to work with. And it's also the reason that the motivator for the idlings that we did, that we announced to our employees yesterday in our release last night, is driven first and foremost by hydroxide. Carbonate is a bigger market. And the shelf life considerations aren't the same. So you do manage them differently. But because it's bigger, there's a lot of carbonate inventory out there, too, right? The more people produce it and more people buy it. So there's a differentiated way in which we manage it, but the challenges are the same and that they're elevated for both.

你說得對。Chris，我是 Eric。氫氧化鋰確實有保存期限——不過它也是一個較小的市場。因此當我們看我們的客戶基礎時，會大量使用氫氧化鋰、且可能持有高庫存水位的客戶數量，是一個更——更容易管理的一群。這也讓我們更容易與他們合作處理。而且這也是我們進行停產（idling）的主要驅動因素——我們昨天在新聞稿中、昨晚的公告裡也對員工宣布——首先且最主要是由氫氧化鋰所驅動。碳酸鋰是更大的市場。而保存期限的考量並不相同。所以你會用不同方式去管理。但因為市場更大，外面也有很多碳酸鋰庫存，對吧？生產的人更多、購買的人也更多。所以我們在管理方式上會有所區分，但挑戰是相同的，而且兩者的壓力都偏高。

Okay. And my follow-up is -- and you got at this a little bit in response to Bob's question on your long-term agreements. But there's obviously this [acquisition] where there's acute near-term oversupply, probably amplified by the COVID dynamic, but then the increasing steepness of the EV adoption curve a couple of few years out. So I'm just wondering, again, probably looking at maybe the conversation around carbonate versus the conversations around long-term sourcing of hydroxide. Is there -- can you just provide any color on -- as some of those customers are looking for a little relief on the previously agreed to pricing floors, is there still anxiousness about the ability to source on a long-term basis, hydroxide? And is that more noticeable with the conversation around hydroxide vis-à-vis carbonate?

好的。我的追問是——你在回應 Bob 關於長期協議的問題時也稍微提到——但顯然目前存在這種[收購]情況：短期內供給過剩很嚴重，可能又被 COVID 的因素放大；但在再過兩三年後，電動車採用曲線的陡峭程度又會增加。所以我想再問一次，可能是看碳酸鋰的對話，對比氫氧化鋰長期採購的對話。當一些客戶希望在先前約定的價格底線上獲得一些緩解時，對於長期取得氫氧化鋰的能力，是否仍然感到焦慮？而且相較於碳酸鋰，這種情況在氫氧化鋰的對話中是否更明顯？

I would say that because the steepness in the growth curve that we -- that IHS is projecting, and it's a guidepost for us, provided it happens when it does. And that's also what our customers are seeing and it's driven largely by -- a big chunk of it is driven by Europe. And that is also a big hydroxide opportunity that, yes, there's probably increased -- I don't know I think anxiety is the right word, but statement around -- from customers around they're going to need more -- a lot more hydroxide in the coming year or so. And they're banking on Albemarle to be able to bring Kemerton, in particular online to meet that. Now all of this is tempered about when, right? The steepness of that curve feels right based on what we're seeing. The timing of it is consumer spending driven, so we just keep a careful eye on that up and down the supply chain.

我會說，因為我們——以及 IHS 所預測的——成長曲線的陡峭程度（這也是我們的參考指標），前提是它確實在預期的時間發生。而這也是我們客戶所看到的，且很大一部分是由——其中很大一塊是由歐洲所驅動。而那同時也是一個很大的氫氧化鋰機會；是的，客戶那邊可能有更多——我不確定「焦慮」是不是正確的詞——但確實有一些表述，表示他們在接下來一年左右將需要更多——多得多的氫氧化鋰。而他們也指望 Albemarle 能夠讓 Kemerton 尤其是 Kemerton 上線，以滿足這個需求。當然，這一切都會受到「何時」的影響，對吧？就我們所看到的情況而言，那條曲線的陡峭程度感覺是合理的。但其時間點是由消費支出所驅動，因此我們會在整個供應鏈上下游都保持密切關注。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Meredith Bandy for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想把電話交回給 Meredith Bandy 作結語。

All right. Thank you all for your questions and participation in today's call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Albemarle, and this concludes our call.

好的。感謝各位在今天電話會議中的提問與參與。一如既往，我們感謝各位對 Albemarle 的關注，本次電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以掛線。