Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Affirm Holdings Fiscal Year 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay of the call will be available on your Investor Relations website for a reasonable period of time after the call.

下午好，女士們，先生們。謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Affirm Holdings 2022 財年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音，電話會議的重播將在電話會議後的一段合理時間內在您的投資者關係網站上提供。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Ron Clark, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ron Clark。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Thanks, operator. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone listening that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝，接線員。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到眾多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性，這些文件可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and the company does not assume any obligation or intent to update them, except as required by law.

實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述大不相同。這些前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表，公司不承擔任何更新它們的義務或意圖，除非法律要求。

In addition, today's call may include non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to, but not as a substitute for GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings press release, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

此外，今天的電話會議可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施應被視為對公認會計原則財務措施的補充，而不是替代。可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬，該新聞稿可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Hosting today's call are Max Levchin, Affirm's Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Linford, Affirm's Chief Financial Officer.

主持今天的電話會議的是 Affirm 的創始人兼首席執行官 Max Levchin；和 Affirm 的首席財務官 Michael Linford。

With that, I'd like to turn over the call to Max to begin.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Max 開始。

Hello, and thank you for joining us on this earnings call. Affirm is just a handful of days away from its 10th anniversary, and this earnings report also marks the first anniversary of our public debut. While the road ahead of us is significantly longer than the one we've traveled so far, the occasion does warrant a moment of reflection on the execution of our strategy during the last 12 months.

您好，感謝您加入我們的財報電話會議。 Affirm 距離其 10 週年僅幾天時間，這份收益報告也標誌著我們公開亮相一周年。雖然我們面前的道路比我們迄今為止走過的道路要長得多，但這一時刻確實值得我們反思過去 12 個月中我們戰略的執行情況。

We feel great about our progress. We remain quite unpivoted and focused on delivering long-term compounding value to all our stakeholders, consumers, merchants, employees and shareholders. As we introduce ourselves to the public markets a year ago, we talked about several key themes.

我們對自己的進步感覺很好。我們仍然非常不偏心，專注於為我們所有的利益相關者、消費者、商家、員工和股東提供長期復合價值。一年前，當我們向公開市場介紹自己時，我們談到了幾個關鍵主題。

First and foremost is our mission, which is to deliver honest financial products to improve lives and to do so while delighting the people we get to serve every day. Because the opportunity embedded in our mission is still so vast and open, consumer growth is very important to Affirm. We've done very well. Indeed, our active consumer growth accelerated, growing by 150% to provide well north of 11 million people with a smarter way to pay. Growth for us is never just about getting the next million consumers. It's also about the impact we can have on the financial well-being of the folks who rely on Affirm.

首先也是最重要的是我們的使命，即提供誠實的金融產品來改善生活，同時讓我們每天服務的人們感到高興。由於我們使命中蘊含的機會仍然如此廣闊和開放，因此消費者增長對 Affirm 來說非常重要。我們做得很好。事實上，我們的活躍消費者增長加速，增長了 150%，為超過 1100 萬人提供了更智能的支付方式。對我們而言，增長絕不僅僅是獲得下一個百萬消費者。這也是關於我們可以對依賴 Affirm 的人們的財務狀況產生的影響。

We also talked about our other all-important constituent, the merchant. Affirm is as much a safe and transparent pay-over-time option for the buyer as it is the ultimate marketing tool for the seller. We help our partners drive meaningful incremental sales without needing to resort to gimmicks or discounting.

我們還談到了我們的另一個最重要的組成部分，商人。 Affirm 對於買方來說是一種安全且透明的分期付款選項，也是賣方的終極營銷工具。我們幫助我們的合作夥伴推動有意義的增量銷售，而無需訴諸噱頭或折扣。

The number of active merchants on our platform is another key measure for Affirm, and over the last year, we've significantly expanded our reach. There too, we accelerated with a more than 20x increase from a year ago and a 64% increase from the rolling 12-month tally we reported just 90 days ago.

我們平台上的活躍商家數量是 Affirm 的另一個關鍵指標，在過去一年中，我們顯著擴大了覆蓋範圍。在那裡，我們的增速也比一年前增長了 20 倍以上，比我們 90 天前報告的 12 個月滾動統計增長了 64%。

As a company founded by engineers, we focused early on investing heavily in technology, scalable enough to economically support the smallest of businesses, all the way up to the world's largest retailers. We've continued this policy of investment and development in pursuit of technological competitive superiority. The strategy is working and delivering results.

作為一家由工程師創立的公司，我們早期專注於對技術進行大量投資，其可擴展性足以在經濟上支持最小的企業，一直到世界上最大的零售商。為了追求技術競爭優勢，我們延續了這種投資和發展的政策。該戰略正在發揮作用並取得成果。

In fact, our technology is what has enabled us to work with tech savvy giants such as Walmart, Shopify, Amazon and Target. We estimate that this year, Affirm processed 1.6% of all U.S. outline transaction volume for the Black Friday, Cyber Monday period, another triple-digit increase from last year. Simultaneously a momentous number and a signifier of just how early we are in this market. Even a decade in, the ramp-up to the holiday shopping rush is an intense yet exhilarating exercise in scalability preparedness. Each year's Black Friday weekend brings by far the greatest number of concurrent transactions we've ever experienced.

事實上，我們的技術使我們能夠與沃爾瑪、Shopify、亞馬遜和 Target 等精通技術的巨頭合作。我們估計，今年，Affirm 處理了黑色星期五、網絡星期一期間美國所有大綱交易量的 1.6%，比去年又增加了三位數。同時是一個重要的數字，也是我們在這個市場上有多早的標誌。即使在十年後，假日購物熱潮的加速也是可擴展性準備方面的一項激烈而令人振奮的練習。每年的黑色星期五週末都會帶來迄今為止我們經歷過的最大數量的並發交易。

I'm very proud of our engineering teams for delivering another flawlessly executed record-breaking Black Friday weekend and I'm also grateful to our friends at Shopify engineering who had lent some of their technical expertise to us as we prepped in the days before.

我為我們的工程團隊再次完美執行破紀錄的黑色星期五週末感到非常自豪，我也感謝我們在 Shopify 工程部門的朋友，他們在我們前幾天的準備工作中將他們的一些技術專長借給了我們。

It is an oft-repeated adage that product innovation slows down as companies go public. I'm pleased to report that we were able to accelerate our product delivery since the IPO. We've rolled out cash back rewards for participating merchants, delivered the unique Adaptive Checkout, launched the Affirm SuperApp and the Affirm Chrome extension and introduced the beta version of super simple, consumer-friendly crypto savings. You may have noted the announcement of Visa being the launch partner for Debit+, which is now in the initial waitlist rollout. Though I will continue to caution you to not yet give crazy forecasting this product's impact on our P&L at scale, I do have fun insight to share.

隨著公司上市，產品創新速度會放緩，這是一句經常被重複的格言。我很高興地報告，自 IPO 以來，我們能夠加快產品交付速度。我們為參與的商家推出了現金返還獎勵，提供了獨特的自適應結賬，推出了 Affirm SuperApp 和 Affirm Chrome 擴展程序，並推出了超級簡單、消費者友好型加密儲蓄的測試版。您可能已經註意到 Visa 宣布成為 Debit+ 的啟動合作夥伴，該合作夥伴現在處於最初的候補名單推出中。儘管我將繼續提醒您不要瘋狂預測該產品對我們損益表的影響，但我確實有有趣的見解可以分享。

On average, the number of weekly transactions by Debit+ consumer, excluding our own employees, is greater than an order of magnitude above that of a regular Affirm user. Of course, these are enthusiastic early adopters, and we fully expect the number to normalize, but it's exciting to see first glimpses of what Affirm as a daily instrument might look like. We remain very excited about the future of this product and expect to talk a lot more about it this year.

平均而言，Debit+ 消費者（不包括我們自己的員工）的每週交易數量比普通 Affirm 用戶高出一個數量級。當然，這些都是熱心的早期採用者，我們完全期望這個數字能夠正常化，但看到 Affirm 作為日常工具的樣子是令人興奮的。我們仍然對這款產品的未來感到非常興奮，並希望今年能更多地談論它。

We had said last year that BNPL is an international phenomenon and we intend to bring Affirm's unique "no late fees, no gotchas, no regrets" approach well beyond our home borders. Over the last 12 months, we've solidified our industry leadership with PayBright by Affirm in Canada and launched in Australia, our first non-North American market and the growth of our business continues to accelerate.

去年我們曾說過，BNPL 是一種國際現象，我們打算將 Affirm 獨特的“沒有滯納金、沒有陷阱、沒有遺憾”的方法遠遠超出我們的國內邊界。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在加拿大通過 PayBright by Affirm 鞏固了我們的行業領導地位，並在我們的第一個非北美市場澳大利亞推出，我們的業務增長繼續加速。

Affirm had more than 160,000 active merchants on the platform as of the end of calendar 2021, largely thanks to our partnerships with online commerce platforms. In aggregate, Affirm is now present on sites that account for more than half of all U.S. e-commerce, and that number continues to march higher every day.

截至 2021 年底，Affirm 在平台上擁有超過 160,000 家活躍商家，這在很大程度上要歸功於我們與在線商務平台的合作夥伴關係。總的來說，Affirm 現在出現在占美國所有電子商務一半以上的網站上，而且這個數字每天都在繼續增長。

In our second quarter year-over-year GMV growth accelerated to 115% from 84% in the first fiscal quarter. Moving beyond the testing phase of our collaboration with Amazon before the holidays was a significant driver of this growth. However, if you exclude Amazon, our GMV still doubled year-over-year.

在第二季度，我們的 GMV 同比增長從第一財季的 84% 加速至 115%。超越假期前我們與亞馬遜合作的測試階段是這種增長的重要推動力。但是，如果排除亞馬遜，我們的 GMV 仍然同比翻了一番。

We are highly cognizant of the fact that over 80% of commerce is still conducted offline. Our recently announced partnerships with Verifone and Adyen are just two of the numerous investments we're making with our partners to bring honest financial products to consumers at the physical point of sale.

我們高度認識到，超過 80% 的商業活動仍然在線下進行。我們最近宣布與 Verifone 和 Adyen 建立合作夥伴關係，這只是我們與合作夥伴進行的眾多投資中的兩項，目的是在實體銷售點為消費者提供誠實的金融產品。

We're also expanding the ability to use Affirm in-store with our own products like Debit+. Our focus on using exceptional technology to drive growth and improve efficiency has been a winning strategy for Affirm, and we never stopped finding ways to optimize and deliver even more value. This shows up in our results in a number of ways from new partnerships to long-standing relationships. For example, iterating over the last 3 years, our relationship with Walmart has grown as we prove the value of our products. We expect similarly great things from our other major partnerships with time.

我們還擴展了在 Debit+ 等我們自己的產品中使用 Affirm in-store 的能力。我們專注於使用卓越的技術來推動增長和提高效率一直是 Affirm 的製勝戰略，我們從未停止尋找優化和提供更多價值的方法。從新的合作夥伴關係到長期的合作關係，我們的結果以多種方式體現了這一點。例如，在過去 3 年的迭代中，隨著我們證明我們產品的價值，我們與沃爾瑪的關係不斷發展。隨著時間的推移，我們期望我們的其他主要合作夥伴也能取得類似的成就。

As we develop with and learn from each customer, we are excited to bring these learnings and the products they engender to all merchants, big and small. The strength of our network is measured in merchant coverage and repeat consumer engagement, both of which are rising rapidly. We grew total transactions by 218% and transactions per active user by 15% year-over-year even as we added a tremendous number of new consumers. Our momentum is strengthening. Our strategy is working and we are extending our lead.

隨著我們與每位客戶一起發展並向他們學習，我們很高興能夠將這些經驗及其產生的產品帶給所有大小商家。我們網絡的實力以商家覆蓋率和重複消費者參與度來衡量，這兩者都在迅速上升。我們的總交易量同比增長 218%，每位活躍用戶的交易量同比增長 15%，儘管我們增加了大量新消費者。我們的勢頭正在加強。我們的戰略正在奏效，我們正在擴大領先優勢。

We intend to double down on the 3 key things that got us here: one, deliver unique and delightful financial products that align fully with our mission; two, continue to be the partner of choice for merchants that care about intelligent growth, scalability and reliability; and three, deepen our underwriting advantage.

我們打算加倍關注讓我們走到今天這一步的 3 個關鍵因素：第一，提供完全符合我們使命的獨特且令人愉悅的金融產品；二、繼續成為關心智能增長、可擴展性和可靠性的商家的首選合作夥伴；三是深化承保優勢。

Speaking of underwriting. We manage risk, though we are an easy-to-understand tool to maximize one's personal capital and the retail marketer's best friend. At our core, Affirm is ultimately a risk-managing business. We facilitate the transaction, settled with the merchant soon thereafter and bill the buyer over a predetermined period of time.

說到承保。我們管理風險，儘管我們是一個易於理解的工具，可以最大限度地利用個人資本和零售營銷人員最好的朋友。在我們的核心，Affirm 最終是一項風險管理業務。我們促進交易，此後很快與商家結算，並在預定的時間段內向買家收費。

But wait, there's more. When we charge interest, which we don't always do, we don't compound it into principal. Moreover, we don't compound interest after it reaches the amount we communicated to the consumer at purchase time. We refund interest when the buyer prepays. We don't even charge late fees. These are all deliberate choices made in the first few days of our company's life. We meant to align ourselves with our consumers in this manner, avoiding the moral hazard of capitalizing on their mistakes for revenue opportunities. These decisions are as on mission and moral as they are self-serving. These policies are an important part of why our consumer satisfaction is so high, and we only wanted to go up.

但是等等，還有更多。當我們收取利息時，我們並不總是這樣做，我們不會將其與本金復合。此外，在達到我們在購買時與消費者溝通的金額後，我們不會復利。當買方預付款時，我們退還利息。我們甚至不收取滯納金。這些都是在我們公司成立的最初幾天中做出的深思熟慮的選擇。我們打算以這種方式與我們的消費者保持一致，避免利用他們的錯誤來獲取收入機會的道德風險。這些決定既是出於使命和道德，也是為了自私。這些政策是我們消費者滿意度如此之高的重要部分，我們只想提高。

With the self-imposed guardrails exceptional underwriting and risk management frameworks are a requirement. That's why we underwrite every transaction before making a credit decision, unlike some of our competitors in the BNPL space who readily admit they do no underwriting at all. It is also important to understand that unlike many players in our industry, we do not treat delinquencies or defaults as an outcome of our business decisions.

有了自我強加的護欄，就需要特殊的承保和風險管理框架。這就是為什麼我們在做出信貸決定之前為每筆交易進行承保，這與我們在 BNPL 領域的一些競爭對手欣然承認他們根本不進行承保不同。同樣重要的是要了解，與我們行業中的許多參與者不同，我們不會將拖欠或違約視為我們業務決策的結果。

Indeed, we choose acceptable delinquency rates as an input into our decision-making, based on the pricing our products command with our customers, our view of the macroeconomic conditions and the demand for our loan volume in the capital markets. This distinction may seem subtle, but I think it really helps understand our approach to risk.

事實上，我們選擇可接受的拖欠率作為我們決策的輸入，基於我們的產品與客戶要求的定價、我們對宏觀經濟狀況的看法以及資本市場對我們貸款量的需求。這種區別可能看起來很微妙，但我認為它確實有助於理解我們應對風險的方法。

We spent the last decade building what we believe to be one of the best-in-class credit underwriting ecosystems, data, tools, processes and teams that deliver underwriting models with some of the very best results in the industry. Today, I'll pull the curtain back a little and while I will keep it very high level in part to avoid giving out trade secrets, feel free to tune out for a few minutes while I nerd out.

在過去的十年裡，我們建立了我們認為是一流的信用承銷生態系統、數據、工具、流程和團隊之一，提供的承銷模型具有業內最好的結果。今天，我會稍微拉開帷幕，雖然我會保持很高的水平，部分原因是為了避免洩露商業機密，但在我書呆子的時候，請隨意調出幾分鐘。

Affirm's underwriting advantage begins before any of our models are interrogated for a decision with our product design. Because Affirm is predominantly offered at the point of sale, we have a natural opportunity to explain our value and transparent approach to the consumer. As a result, we avoid much of the adverse selection that often comes with traditional lending.

Affirm 的承保優勢在我們的任何模型被審問以決定我們的產品設計之前就開始了。因為 Affirm 主要在銷售點提供，所以我們自然有機會向消費者解釋我們的價值和透明的方法。因此，我們避免了傳統貸款經常出現的許多逆向選擇。

Coupled with SKU-level data we receive from our partners, our models tend to split the risk far better than those used in traditional consumer loans. Another fundamental structural advantage Affirm has is its total separability of transactions. Unlike providers of lines of credit, we underwrite transactions individually, modeling a consumer's ability to pay us back as well as their propensity to do so.

再加上我們從合作夥伴那裡收到的 SKU 級數據，我們的模型往往比傳統消費貸款中使用的模型更好地分散風險。 Affirm 的另一個基本結構優勢是其交易的完全可分離性。與信用額度提供者不同，我們單獨承保交易，模擬消費者償還我們的能力以及他們這樣做的傾向。

This notion of separability is also recursive, a consequence of our product because repayment schedules are highly predictable, our models operate at an individual installment level. This separability is a powerful tool for modeling as well as managing risk. We're able to deliver a reliable forward-looking picture of both consumers and our own cash flow.

這種可分離性的概念也是遞歸的，這是我們產品的結果，因為還款計劃是高度可預測的，我們的模型在單獨的分期付款級別上運行。這種可分離性是建模和管理風險的強大工具。我們能夠為消費者和我們自己的現金流提供可靠的前瞻性圖片。

Our proprietary network of directly integrated merchants as well as other sources of nontraditional underwriting data offers us a significant raw data advantage into feature engineering. We maintain a library of over 500 features that we select from as we create new models or update existing ones, while continuously looking for and eliminating any potential for disparate impact in our decisioning, both at individual variable and model levels.

我們由直接整合的商家組成的專有網絡以及其他非傳統承保數據來源為我們在特徵工程中提供了重要的原始數據優勢。在創建新模型或更新現有模型時，我們維護了一個包含 500 多個特徵的庫，同時不斷尋找和消除對我們的決策產生不同影響的任何可能性，無論是在單個變量還是模型級別。

We train our models using academically well-understood gradient boosting technique with significant proprietary modifications we've invented that help us improve results. Because from the very beginning, we focused equally on consumer and merchant information, we ended up with a large number of models that are specific to our products and merchants who use them.

我們使用學術上廣為人知的梯度提陞技術訓練我們的模型，並使用我們發明的重大專有修改來幫助我們改進結果。因為從一開始，我們同樣關註消費者和商家信息，最終我們得到了大量針對我們的產品和使用它們的商家的模型。

Moreover, as we launch new products with new and existing partners, we acquire new types of data that we incorporate into the models and over time, give incremental weight, too. Underwriting models decay over time as macroeconomic conditions and consumer behaviors change. Even the very best performing ones can lose a few percentage points of their area under the curve every few months.

此外，當我們與新的和現有的合作夥伴一起推出新產品時，我們會獲取新類型的數據，並將其納入模型中，並且隨著時間的推移，也會增加權重。隨著宏觀經濟狀況和消費者行為的變化，承保模型會隨著時間的推移而衰退。即使是表現最好的那些也可能每隔幾個月就會失去幾個百分點的曲線下面積。

Over the years, we've built special-purpose models that track model decay, the machine learning equivalent of a canary in a coal mine. Our proprietary software and processes allow us to rapidly retrain, retest and redeploy models where the performance has deteriorated in a matter of days. To illustrate this, let's take a side-by-side look at ITACs, one of our longest-serving proprietary models, versus a traditional credit scoring system like FICO.

多年來，我們建立了跟踪模型衰減的專用模型，機器學習相當於煤礦中的金絲雀。我們的專有軟件和流程使我們能夠快速重新訓練、重新測試和重新部署性能在幾天內惡化的模型。為了說明這一點，讓我們將 ITAC（我們服務時間最長的專有模型之一）與 FICO 等傳統信用評分系統進行對比。

Using ITACs, reducing originations by 10% would eliminate 1/3 of all delinquencies in dollars, while using the traditional credit scoring system would only reduce delinquencies by a mere 13%. Let's take it a step further. If we were to reduce originations by 30% using ITACs, we would remove 70% of all delinquencies, while the traditional score would only catch 36%.

使用 ITAC，減少 10% 的起源將消除 1/3 的美元拖欠，而使用傳統的信用評分系統只會減少 13% 的拖欠。讓我們更進一步。如果我們使用 ITAC 將原始數據減少 30%，我們將消除 70% 的所有拖欠，而傳統分數只能捕獲 36%。

So needless to say, this model slopes a lot better than the traditional industry standard. These achievements may sound quite abstract, but they have a very real impact. With our superior underwriting capabilities, Affirm can approve many more college students buying tickets to see family after months of pandemic isolation and young parents picking up their first stroller. And because Affirm's average loan duration at origination by design is very short at just 5.2 months, the exceptional precision and recall of our credit models give us great confidence that our portfolio, both retained and sold will continue to perform well in the future. Any use of advanced technology has both advantages and risks associated with it.

所以不用說，這個模型比傳統的行業標準要好很多。這些成就听起來可能很抽象，但它們的影響卻非常真實。憑藉我們卓越的承保能力，Affirm 可以批准更多大學生在大流行隔離數月後購買門票看望家人，以及年輕的父母拿起他們的第一輛嬰兒車。而且由於 Affirm 在設計時的平均貸款期限非常短，僅為 5.2 個月，因此我們信貸模型的卓越精確度和召回率使我們對我們的保留和出售的投資組合在未來將繼續表現良好充滿信心。任何對先進技術的使用都有與之相關的優勢和風險。

As we push our model performance further in pursuit of expanding our offerings, we work just as diligently on ensuring that our models are both compliant with all applicable laws and rules and that our model decisions are both reasonable and are understandable by consumers. We regularly audit our models to avoid correlation with prohibited basis and have them audited externally.

隨著我們進一步推動我們的模型性能以尋求擴展我們的產品，我們同樣努力確保我們的模型既符合所有適用的法律和規則，並且我們的模型決策既合理又能被消費者理解。我們定期審核我們的模型以避免與禁止的基礎相關聯，並對其進行外部審核。

We also invest heavily in explainability of model outcomes so that both consumers and regulators can understand our decisions quite easily. None of this, of course, would exist without the extraordinary team of people that make it all possible. I am truly fortunate to have been able to start this company with a group of brilliant minds who in turn, attracted more and more talented folks to join our mission and bring their mathematical and other talents to bear.

我們還大力投資於模型結果的可解釋性，以便消費者和監管機構都能很容易地理解我們的決定。當然，如果沒有讓這一切成為可能的非凡團隊，這一切都不會存在。我真的很幸運能夠與一群才華橫溢的人一起創辦這家公司，他們反過來又吸引了越來越多有才華的人加入我們的使命，並發揮他們的數學和其他才能。

It is this embarrassment of riches among my teammates that makes me so optimistic about the next decade of Affirm. Large as some of these numbers might be, Affirm still accounts for around 1% of U.S. e-commerce, and both consumers and merchants are genuinely excited to get more value from Affirm. And we are excited to deliver it.

正是這種在隊友之間的財富尷尬，讓我對 Affirm 的下一個十年如此樂觀。儘管其中一些數字可能很大，但 Affirm 仍占美國電子商務的 1% 左右，消費者和商家都對從 Affirm 獲得更多價值感到非常興奮。我們很高興能夠交付它。

As usual, I want to thank my team for all their amazing work. And even during some pretty volatile moments for our stock price, for staying truly focused on the long-term value creation for all our stakeholders and on our mission. Now on to Michael for the numbers.

像往常一樣，我要感謝我的團隊所做的所有出色工作。甚至在我們的股價非常不穩定的時刻，為了真正專注於為我們所有的利益相關者和我們的使命創造長期價值。現在請邁克爾詢問數字。

Thanks, Max, and good afternoon, everyone. Our second quarter results demonstrated a massive step change in our network scale, driven by our partnership with the largest enterprises and our technology advantage.

謝謝，Max，大家下午好。我們第二季度的業績表明，在我們與最大企業的合作夥伴關係和我們的技術優勢的推動下，我們的網絡規模發生了巨大的變化。

Growth accelerated on both sides of our network, as active consumers more than doubled while active merchants increased more than 20x. Frequency increased alongside that explosive user growth. Total transactions grew 218%, the fastest rate since our Series D private funding round.

我們網絡兩邊的增長都在加速，因為活躍的消費者增加了一倍以上，而活躍的商家增加了 20 倍以上。頻率隨著用戶的爆炸性增長而增加。總交易量增長 218%，是我們 D 輪私募融資以來的最快增速。

We grew GMV 115% in revenue by 77%. In November, we completed the rollout of our initial offering at Amazon in the United States. And even excluding Amazon's contribution, we significantly exceeded our outlook for both GMV and revenue. Unit economics were also strong. Revenue less transaction costs grew faster than revenue at 93% from the prior year. And even as we accelerated network growth, we continue to operate with efficiency, reducing the equity capital we used to fund our loans by 17% versus last year.

我們的 GMV 收入增長了 115%，增長了 77%。 11 月，我們完成了在美國亞馬遜的首次發行。即使不包括亞馬遜的貢獻，我們對 GMV 和收入的預期也大大超出了我們的預期。單位經濟也很強勁。收入減去交易成本後的增長速度快於收入，比上年增長了 93%。即使我們加快了網絡增長，我們仍繼續高效運營，與去年相比，我們用於為貸款提供資金的股本減少了 17%。

With the accelerating growth of our business and the early traction with our enterprise partners, we are raising our outlook for fiscal year '22, which I'll share more about in a moment. Before I do that, let's walk through the second quarter results.

隨著我們業務的加速增長以及與我們的企業合作夥伴的早期合作，我們正在提高對 22 財年的展望，稍後我將分享更多信息。在我這樣做之前，讓我們來看看第二季度的結果。

Unless stated otherwise, all comparisons refer to our second fiscal quarter of 2022 versus Q2 of fiscal '21. We had another great quarter for consumer growth. Active consumers increased 150% to 11.2 million and increased 2.5 million sequentially from fiscal Q1. Despite adding users at this aggressive pace, we grew transactions per active consumer by 15% year-to-year and more than tripled the number of transactions.

除非另有說明，否則所有比較均指我們 2022 財年第二季度與 21 財年第二季度的比較。我們在消費者增長方面又迎來了一個很好的季度。活躍消費者增長 150% 至 1120 萬，較第一財季環比增長 250 萬。儘管以如此激進的速度增加用戶，但我們每個活躍消費者的交易量同比增長了 15%，交易量增加了兩倍多。

More merchants, platforms and brands are leveraging the power of Affirm to grow their businesses. In the second quarter, active merchants grew to more than 168,000 from just 8,000 last year, thanks in large part to the scaling of our partnership with Shopify. On a sequential basis, active merchants, which we calculate over a trailing 12-month time frame, grew 64% from the September-ending quarter.

越來越多的商家、平台和品牌正在利用 Affirm 的力量發展業務。在第二季度，活躍商家從去年的 8,000 家增長到超過 168,000 家，這在很大程度上要歸功於我們與 Shopify 合作夥伴關係的擴大。在連續的基礎上，我們在過去 12 個月的時間範圍內計算的活躍商家比 9 月底的季度增長了 64%。

Turning to GMV. We grew GMV to $4.5 billion in our second quarter, a $2.4 billion increase from last year. The 115% increase includes the volume from our partnership with Amazon. We completed the launch of our interest-bearing program at Amazon in November, ahead of Black Friday. And while the program is still in its infancy with a long road map of optimizations to work on, we've seen rapid consumer adoption. We look forward to years of growth in this collaboration.

轉向GMV。我們在第二季度將 GMV 增加到 45 億美元，比去年增加了 24 億美元。 115% 的增長包括我們與亞馬遜合作的銷量。我們於 11 月在黑色星期五之前在亞馬遜完成了計息計劃的啟動。雖然該程序仍處於起步階段，有很長的優化路線圖可供研究，但我們已經看到消費者迅速採用。我們期待這種合作的多年增長。

We have strong momentum across our business. Excluding Amazon, GMV doubled with growth across all products and verticals. I would also note that our business with Peloton, our second largest merchant partner by GMV in the quarter, was up against an unusually strong prior year comp, following the launch of a new product slate and boosted by COVID tailwinds.

我們的業務發展勢頭強勁。不包括亞馬遜，GMV 隨著所有產品和垂直領域的增長翻了一番。我還要指出，我們與 Peloton 的業務是我們在本季度 GMV 的第二大商業合作夥伴，在推出新產品並受到 COVID 順風推動後，去年的業績表現異常強勁。

As a testament to the increasing depth and breadth of our network, no single merchant accounted for more than 10% of Q2 GMV. One year ago, we discussed how we would expand into higher frequency purchase areas and diversify our merchant partnerships. A year later, I'm really proud of how our team has delivered on these objectives for our shareholders.

作為我們網絡深度和廣度不斷增加的證明，沒有一個商家佔第二季度 GMV 的 10% 以上。一年前，我們討論瞭如何擴展到更高頻率的購買領域並使我們的商家合作夥伴關係多樣化。一年後，我為我們的團隊如何為股東實現這些目標而感到自豪。

Shifting to industry vertical. We have phenomenal holiday season. We more than doubled our volume from Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and we believe we took significant market share from both traditional incumbents and BNPL pure plays. As Max shared, we estimate that Affirm facilitated 1.6% of total online transaction volume for the Black Friday, Cyber Monday period in the U.S., and we saw particular strength in key holiday categories in Q2.

轉向垂直行業。我們有非凡的假期。我們的交易量比黑色星期五和網絡星期一增加了一倍多，我們相信我們從傳統的老牌企業和 BNPL 純遊戲中獲得了可觀的市場份額。正如 Max 所分享的，我們估計 Affirm 促成了美國黑色星期五、網絡星期一期間總在線交易量的 1.6%，我們看到第二季度關鍵假日類別的表現尤為強勁。

Travel and ticketing increased, up 314% from last year, topping last quarter's high mark, even despite the emergence of the Omicron variant. General merchandise grew 368% above last year driven by our deepening partnership with the industry's leading retailers and the launch of our offering at Amazon in the U.S.

儘管出現了 Omicron 變體，但旅行和票務增長，比去年增長 314%，超過上一季度的高點。在我們與行業領先零售商深化合作以及在美國亞馬遜推出我們的產品的推動下，普通商品比去年增長了 368%。

Consumer electronics, which grew 209% year-to-year, was another great story, driven by strong demand for TVs, laptops and gaming consoles. Our results this holiday season hide our ability to take share and grow in any environment. And importantly, why we're so different from the competition.

在對電視、筆記本電腦和遊戲機的強勁需求的推動下，消費電子產品同比增長 209% 是另一個好故事。我們在這個假期的結果隱藏了我們在任何環境中分享和成長的能力。重要的是，為什麼我們與競爭對手如此不同。

Outside the U.S., we had another outstanding quarter. Our Canadian business more than tripled in size, thanks to existing and new partnerships, including Apple, which launched in the fall to brisk consumer demand. In the second quarter, we also entered the Australian market with Peloton and look forward to growing our business with them there.

在美國以外，我們還有另一個出色的季度。得益於現有和新的合作夥伴關係，我們在加拿大的業務規模增長了兩倍多，其中包括蘋果公司，該公司於秋季推出以滿足旺盛的消費者需求。在第二季度，我們還與 Peloton 一起進入了澳大利亞市場，並期待與他們一起發展我們的業務。

This quarter, our interest-bearing program, which includes our initial offering at Amazon, grew significantly, up 124% year-on-year to $1.4 billion. Before I jump into the financials, let me walk through the mechanics of this offering to illustrate the impact on the income statement.

本季度，我們的計息計劃（包括我們在亞馬遜的首次發行）顯著增長，同比增長 124% 至 14 億美元。在我進入財務之前，讓我先介紹一下這次發行的機制，以說明對損益表的影響。

On the revenue side, we monetize these loans by either holding them to maturity or selling them to third parties. When we hold the loans, we primarily earn interest income, which we recognize over the duration of the loan. Hence, this quarter's revenue reflects just a portion of the total yield we will ultimately see from the GMV we generated in Q2. We will recognize the balance over the subsequent quarters.

在收入方面，我們通過將這些貸款持有至到期或將其出售給第三方來將其貨幣化。當我們持有貸款時，我們主要賺取利息收入，我們在貸款期限內確認。因此，本季度的收入僅反映了我們最終將在第二季度產生的 GMV 中看到的總收益的一部分。我們將確認隨後幾個季度的餘額。

As an illustrative data point, we sold 59% of the interest-bearing loans generated in the U.S. this quarter and retained the remainder. On the expense side, we provision for credit losses upfront. For loans we hold, this means that the margin profile is back-end weighted. Our partnerships with key enterprise merchants are unlocking more opportunities for our business every day, and we are investing today to realize the full long-term potential. While we are just in the beginning stages in scaling these partnerships, we are already seeing them drive network expansion, and we expect to deliver strong unit economics when they reach scale.

作為一個說明性數據點，我們出售了本季度在美國產生的 59% 的有息貸款，並保留了剩餘部分。在費用方面，我們預先計提信用損失。對於我們持有的貸款，這意味著保證金是後端加權的。我們與主要企業商家的合作每天都在為我們的業務釋放更多機會，我們今天正在投資以實現全部長期潛力。雖然我們在擴大這些合作夥伴關係方面才剛剛起步，但我們已經看到它們推動了網絡擴張，我們希望在它們達到規模時提供強大的單位經濟效益。

Now turning to the financials. The strong GMV growth also drove strong revenue growth. Net revenue grew 77% to $361 million, well above our outlook. Total network revenue grew 39%, while interest income increased 87%, and gain on loan sale rose fourfold. Revenue as a percentage of GMV contracted 170 basis points to 8%, driven by product mix.

現在轉向財務。強勁的 GMV 增長也推動了強勁的收入增長。淨收入增長 77% 至 3.61 億美元，遠高於我們的預期。網絡總收入增長 39%，利息收入增長 87%，貸款銷售收益增長了四倍。在產品組合的推動下，收入佔 GMV 的百分比收縮 170 個基點至 8%。

Split Pay grew over 4x year-on-year and accounted for more than 20% of GMV in the second quarter from just 11% last year. In our earnings supplement posted to our Investor Relations website, you will see that merchant revenue take rates have remained relatively constant for each of our offerings.

Split Pay 同比增長超過 4 倍，在第二季度佔 GMV 的比例超過 20%，而去年僅為 11%。在我們發佈到我們的投資者關係網站的收益補充中，您會看到我們的每項產品的商家收入獲取率保持相對穩定。

On the expense side, we continue to grow revenue faster than transaction costs, delivering real leverage. Total transaction costs of $177 million grew 63% year-over-year compared to revenue growth of 77%. And excluding provision for credit losses, transaction cost as a percentage of GMV declined 190 basis points to 2.8%.

在費用方面，我們的收入增長速度繼續快於交易成本，提供了真正的槓桿作用。總交易成本為 1.77 億美元，同比增長 63%，而收入增長 77%。不計信用損失準備金，交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比下降 190 個基點至 2.8%。

Given the mix shift from longer duration 0% APR loans, loss on loan purchase commitments declined 4%, while improvements in our capital programs helped limit the growth of funding cost to 47%. Provision for credit losses grew from $13 million 1 year ago to $53 million, as the year-ago figure included a $39 million release of excess COVID-related loan allowance, while this year's figure reflects the intentional normalization of credit that we've discussed over the past several quarters.

鑑於從長期 0% APR 貸款的組合轉變，貸款購買承諾的損失下降了 4%，而我們資本計劃的改進有助於將融資成本的增長限制在 47%。信貸損失準備金從一年前的 1300 萬美元增加到 5300 萬美元，因為去年的數字包括釋放 3900 萬美元的與 COVID 相關的超額貸款準備金，而今年的數字反映了我們已經討論過的有意的信貸正常化過去幾個季度。

Over the first half of the fiscal year, we have managed delinquencies of 30 days or more to remain below the same periods of fiscal 2019 and 2020, even as we have expanded the credit box to a more normalized level compared to the early days of the pandemic. Our strong top line growth and leverage we achieved on transaction costs drove a 93% increase in revenue less transaction costs to $184 million, above our outlook range or 4.1% of GMV.

在本財年上半年，我們已將拖欠 30 天或更長時間的拖欠率控制在低於 2019 財年和 2020 財年同期的水平，儘管我們已將信用額度擴大到與早期相比更加正常化的水平大流行。我們強勁的收入增長和我們在交易成本方面實現的槓桿推動收入減去交易成本後增長 93% 至 1.84 億美元，高於我們的展望範圍或 GMV 的 4.1%。

Looking at OpEx beyond transaction costs, we continue to invest in building our team and elevating our brand. We doubled headcount to more than 2,000 Affirmers and increased marketing around the holidays. Our teams have delivered a torrent of exciting new offerings while our brand campaign drove greater awareness across all age cohorts and helped us reach the highest aided awareness among BNPL providers at 45%. Growing our team resulted in higher personnel costs and stock-based compensation. In Q2, total operating expenses exclusive of transaction costs, grew $258 million, of which $158 million was related to D&A, stock-based compensation, foreign expense and onetime expenses related to our IPO and acquisitions.

著眼於交易成本之外的運營支出，我們繼續投資於建設我們的團隊和提升我們的品牌。我們將員工人數增加了一倍，達到 2,000 多名 Affirmer，並在假期期間增加了營銷。我們的團隊提供了大量令人興奮的新產品，而我們的品牌活動提高了所有年齡段的認知度，並幫助我們在 BNPL 提供者中達到了最高的輔助認知度，達到 45%。擴大我們的團隊導致更高的人員成本和基於股票的薪酬。在第二季度，不包括交易成本的總運營費用增加了 2.58 億美元，其中 1.58 億美元與 D&A、股票薪酬、海外費用以及與我們的 IPO 和收購相關的一次性費用有關。

Excluding these items, nontransactional operating expenses grew 109%. On a GAAP basis, operating loss was $196 million, which compares to a loss of $27 million last year. Adjusted operating loss was $8 million in the quarter compared to a $3 million of income in the prior year.

不計這些項目，非交易性運營費用增長了 109%。按公認會計原則計算，經營虧損為 1.96 億美元，而去年為 2700 萬美元。本季度調整後的經營虧損為 800 萬美元，而去年同期為 300 萬美元。

Now turning to our balance sheet. We fortified our cash position and delivered accelerating GMV growth while continuing to manage our capital with discipline and efficiency. In November, we issued $1.7 billion in 0 coupon senior convertible notes with a 5-year maturity, which has significantly increased the capital we have to invest in growth at an extremely attractive long-term borrowing costs while minimizing dilution.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。我們鞏固了現金頭寸，實現了 GMV 加速增長，同時繼續以紀律和效率管理我們的資本。 11 月，我們發行了 17 億美元的 5 年期零息高級可轉換票據，這顯著增加了我們必須以極具吸引力的長期借貸成本投資於增長的資本，同時最大限度地減少稀釋。

Our effective capital markets program and different approach helped to reduce equity capital used to fund our business from $277 million last year to $230 million, even as loans on the balance sheet grew by more than $500 million. As a percentage of total platform portfolio, equity capital required declined to 3.6% from 7.5% last year.

即使資產負債表上的貸款增長了 5 億多美元，我們有效的資本市場計劃和不同的方法也有助於將用於為我們的業務提供資金的股權資本從去年的 2.77 億美元減少到 2.3 億美元。作為平台總投資組合的百分比，所需股本從去年的 7.5% 下降至 3.6%。

Total platform portfolio grew 72% from $3.7 billion to $6.3 billion at the end of Q2, and we increased our overall funding capacity in line from $4.7 billion last year to $8.8 billion. Over the past year, we brought on $1.9 billion in new loan buyer commitments from both new and existing capital partners. Our balances held by third-party loan buyers from our forward flow program grew 129% to $3.7 billion, while our securitization program grew 83%. Our health balances declined 24% as we continue to focus on more efficient funding vehicles.

第二季度末，總平台投資組合從 37 億美元增長 72% 至 63 億美元，我們將整體融資能力從去年的 47 億美元增加到 88 億美元。在過去的一年裡，我們從新的和現有的資本合作夥伴那裡獲得了 19 億美元的新貸款買家承諾。來自我們遠期流動計劃的第三方貸款購買者持有的餘額增長了 129% 至 37 億美元，而我們的證券化計劃增長了 83%。由於我們繼續專注於更高效的融資工具，我們的健康餘額下降了 24%。

Before I move to our outlook, I want to touch on an important topic that has been top of mind for investors, interest rates. While potential interest rate hikes have dominated headlines, we remain confident in our ability to continue to grow rapidly while delivering strong economics as rates rise. Our financial outlook already reflects a roughly 180 basis point increase embedded in the 3-month LIBOR forward curve and our current long-term model, which caused a revenue less transaction cost of 3% to 4%, also assumes rate normalization.

在談及我們的展望之前，我想先談談投資者最關心的一個重要話題——利率。雖然潛在的加息佔據了頭條新聞，但我們仍然有信心繼續快速增長，同時在利率上升時提供強勁的經濟。我們的財務前景已經反映出 3 個月 LIBOR 遠期曲線和我們當前的長期模型（導致收入減去交易成本 3% 至 4%）增加了大約 180 個基點，也假設利率正常化。

We have significant advantages to help us mitigate the impact of rising rates, including broad and diverse funding partnerships that allow us to shift funding to less rate-sensitive counterparties, sophisticated underwriting and risk management infrastructure that allows us to manage unit economics with changes to our cost environment and high turnover, short-term assets that make our portfolio inherently nimble and able to react quickly to changing market conditions.

我們有顯著的優勢來幫助我們減輕利率上升的影響，包括廣泛而多樣化的融資合作夥伴關係，使我們能夠將資金轉移到對利率不太敏感的交易對手，複雜的承保和風險管理基礎設施，使我們能夠通過改變我們的單位來管理單位經濟成本環境和高周轉率、短期資產使我們的投資組合天生靈活並能夠對不斷變化的市場條件做出快速反應。

At a constant product and funding mix, we estimate that a 100 basis point increase beyond the increase implied by the current yield curve would only result in a 10 to 20 basis point impact to revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV for the remainder of fiscal year '22.

在產品和資金組合不變的情況下，我們估計，在當前收益率曲線暗示的增幅之上增加 100 個基點只會對收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比產生 10 到 20 個基點的影響。 '22財政年度。

Looking out to fiscal '23, we believe that a further 100 basis point rate increase again, beyond current expectations would only result in approximately 20 basis point impact to revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV based upon our current funding and GMV mix. And that is before we apply any of the numerous offsets we have, including consumer and merchant pricing, funding strategies and credit optimizations.

展望 '23 財年，我們認為，根據我們當前的資金和 GMV 組合，再次加息 100 個基點，超出當前預期只會對收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比產生約 20 個基點的影響。那是在我們應用我們擁有的眾多補償之前，包括消費者和商家定價、融資策略和信用優化。

Looking beyond fiscal year '23, at our current funding and product mix, we estimate the impact to revenue less transaction costs as a percentage of GMV to be approximately 40 basis points for every 100 basis points of rate movement beyond the current forward curve. And again, that is before applying any cost, credit and revenue optimization.

展望 '23 財年，在我們目前的資金和產品組合中，我們估計當前遠期曲線每 100 個基點的利率變動對收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比的影響約為 40 個基點。同樣，這是在應用任何成本、信用和收入優化之前。

Now turning to the outlook. Our business has never been stronger. And as we look through the remainder of our fiscal year, we are raising our financial outlook to reflect the robust second quarter results, accelerating momentum in the business, and we are now including Amazon's expected contribution to the outlook.

現在轉向前景。我們的業務從未如此強大。在我們展望本財年的剩餘時間時，我們正在提高我們的財務前景，以反映強勁的第二季度業績，加速業務發展勢頭，我們現在將亞馬遜對前景的預期貢獻包括在內。

For fiscal year '22, we now expect GMV to be between $14.58 billion and $14.78 billion, representing a 76% to 78% increase from fiscal year '21. Given the strong traction we're seeing with Shopify, we now expect our Split Pay offering to comprise 15% to 20% of total GMV for the fiscal year.

對於 22 財年，我們現在預計 GMV 將在 145.8 億美元至 147.8 億美元之間，比 21 財年增長 76% 至 78%。鑑於我們在 Shopify 中看到的強大牽引力，我們現在預計我們的 Split Pay 產品將佔本財年總 GMV 的 15% 至 20%。

We expect revenue of $1.29 billion to $1.31 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 48% to 50%. We expect transaction costs of $705 million to $715 million, resulting in revenue less transaction cost of $585 million to $595 million. This reflects the continued mix shift we are seeing in the business.

我們預計收入為 12.9 億美元至 13.1 億美元，同比增長 48% 至 50%。我們預計交易成本為 7.05 億美元至 7.15 億美元，因此收入減去交易成本為 5.85 億美元至 5.95 億美元。這反映了我們在業務中看到的持續組合轉變。

We expect an adjusted operating loss as a percentage of revenue of 12% to 14% as we continue to invest in the long-term growth of our business and weighted average shares of approximately 285 million.

我們預計調整後的經營虧損佔收入的百分比為 12% 至 14%，因為我們將繼續投資於我們業務的長期增長和約 2.85 億股的加權平均股份。

Consistent with Max's remarks, our outlook does not assume a material impact from the rollout of Debit+. We also expect a very strong fiscal third quarter with GMV of $3.61 billion to $3.71 billion, total revenue of $325 million to $335 million, transaction costs of $187 million to $192 million and revenue less transaction costs of $138 million to $143 million.

與 Max 的評論一致，我們的展望並未假設 Debit+ 的推出會產生重大影響。我們還預計第三財季將非常強勁，GMV 為 36.1 億美元至 37.1 億美元，總收入為 3.25 億美元至 3.35 億美元，交易成本為 1.87 億美元至 1.92 億美元，收入減去交易成本為 1.38 億美元至 1.43 億美元。

Adjusted operating loss as a percentage of revenue of 19% to 21% and weighted average shares outstanding of 290 million. In closing, we just posted an incredible quarter of growth and our team is seizing this momentum to continue to deliver on our mission. I'd like to add my thanks to the great work of all Affirmers this quarter.

調整後的經營虧損佔收入的百分比為 19% 至 21%，加權平均流通股為 2.9 億股。最後，我們剛剛發布了一個令人難以置信的季度增長，我們的團隊正在抓住這一勢頭繼續履行我們的使命。我要感謝本季度所有 Affirmers 的出色工作。

Max and I will now open the line for questions.

馬克斯和我現在將打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we open it up for Q&A, I want to briefly address the earlier than customary issuance of our earnings press release today. Due to human error, a small portion of our Q2 results were inadvertently tweeted from Affirm's official Twitter account earlier today. And because of that, we felt it was appropriate to release our full financial results as promptly as possible thereafter rather than waiting until after the market closed.

在我們打開它進行問答之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們今天發布的收益新聞稿早於慣例。由於人為錯誤，我們第二季度的一小部分結果是今天早些時候從 Affirm 的官方 Twitter 帳戶無意中發布的。正因為如此，我們認為此後儘快發布我們的全部財務業績而不是等到市場收盤後才發布我們的全部財務業績是合適的。

With that, I'll turn it over to Doug to begin the Q&A session.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Doug 開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

I guess my first question is, obviously, the December quarter was massive for you guys. But the outlook doesn't seem as comparatively strong, especially the March quarter and particularly if we're now incorporating more Split Pay from Shopify and Amazon, et cetera. Can you walk us through kind of that dynamic, especially on a sequential basis? I mean is this seasonality more than expected drag from Peloton, impact of revenue timing on Amazon and others. Just kind of help us understand the sequential evolution of the business.

我想我的第一個問題是，顯然，12 月季度對你們來說意義重大。但前景似乎並不那麼強勁，尤其是在 3 月季度，特別是如果我們現在從 Shopify 和亞馬遜等公司合併更多的拆分支付。你能帶我們了解一下那種動態，尤其是在順序的基礎上嗎？我的意思是這種季節性超過了 Peloton 的預期拖累，收入時間對亞馬遜和其他公司的影響。只是幫助我們了解業務的順序演變。

Yes. I'll grab that one. And I think to start off, we're very happy with the pace of scaling in the network. The Q4 results, as you said, were pretty spectacular -- sorry, calendar Q4 results were pretty spectacular and it was indeed a special quarter.

是的。我會抓住那個。我認為首先，我們對網絡擴展的速度非常滿意。正如您所說，第四季度的業績非常出色——抱歉，日曆上的第四季度業績非常出色，這確實是一個特殊的季度。

We are reiterating our guidance and taking it up. And so our outlook continues to improve for the balance of the fiscal year. And we're still well in excess of the high growth phase. We're in the hyper growth phase for the stock. And so we feel really good about the scaling that we're doing.

我們正在重申我們的指導並接受它。因此，我們對本財年剩餘時間的展望繼續改善。而且我們仍然遠遠超過了高增長階段。我們正處於股票的超增長階段。所以我們對我們正在做的擴展感覺非常好。

Yes, there are impacts of seasonality. Calendar Q4 tends to be heavier with holiday shopping and as I shared in my remarks, we had a really strong holiday season. So there's a little bit of sequential impact there. And yes, the growth in interest-bearing will tend to create some back-endedness to both the revenue and margin profile of those originations.

是的，有季節性的影響。第四季度的日曆往往因假日購物而變得更重，正如我在評論中所分享的，我們度過了一個非常強勁的假日季節。所以那裡有一點順序影響。是的，計息的增長往往會對這些起源的收入和利潤狀況產生一些影響。

But again, I think we're very happy with the pace of which we're scaling, and we're certainly not focused on or concerned with the next quarter. We're really looking about where this network will be over the next decade.

但同樣，我認為我們對我們正在擴展的速度感到非常滿意，我們當然不會關注或關注下一季度。我們真的在尋找這個網絡在未來十年的發展方向。

And then, Michael, this is probably also for you, but -- and I think both of you and Max highlighted that there's been a lot of questions around interest rates. But a lot of the other questions have to do with delinquencies, et cetera. And as you said, is that you're kind of close to your target. But we noticed that the most recent update, at least in the supplemental, indicated that the percentage of 30-day delinquencies started to turn down and away from kind of your 2% target in recent weeks. Is that purely because of the nature of the incremental mix from the likes of Amazon or better consumer repayments? Or are you tightening the credit standards? And how should we expect that to evolve in coming quarters?

然後，邁克爾，這可能也適合你，但是 - 我認為你和馬克斯都強調了關於利率的很多問題。但許多其他問題與犯罪等有關。正如你所說，是你有點接近你的目標。但我們注意到，最近的更新，至少在補充中，表明最近幾週 30 天拖欠的百分比開始下降，並遠離你 2% 的目標。這純粹是因為亞馬遜之類的增量組合的性質還是更好的消費者還款？還是收緊信貸標準？我們應該如何期望它在未來幾個季度發生變化？

Very good question. If you look at the chart that we have in the supplement, you can see the seasonality curve of delinquencies. There's actually quite a bit of seasonality tied to both the shopping seasons and the repayment schedules have happened. And we're back to a more normalized seasonality curve with respect to what you see in delinquencies.

非常好的問題。如果您查看我們在附錄中的圖表，您可以看到拖欠的季節性曲線。實際上，購物季節和還款時間表都發生了相當多的季節性。我們又回到了關於你在拖欠中看到的更標準化的季節性曲線。

And to reiterate the point, I mean, we're very happy with the credit outcomes we're driving right now. And we take a very intentional approach here, and we have intentionally been losing the credit box over the past year. We're still below '19 and '20 numbers, fiscal '19 and '20, and feel really good about the level of delinquency in light of the total unit economics that we're driving.

重申這一點，我的意思是，我們對我們目前正在推動的信貸結果感到非常滿意。我們在這裡採取了一種非常有意識的方法，在過去的一年裡，我們故意失去了信用箱。我們仍然低於 19 和 20 財年、19 財年和 20 財年的數字，並且鑑於我們正在推動的整體單位經濟，我們對拖欠水平感到非常滿意。

And the only other thing I'd add is that we really do manage to a total portfolio number here. There's a bit of a misunderstanding, we think, out there with folks looking at not the portfolio delinquencies, but looking at one securitization vehicle or one particular slice of our business. We are very thoughtful about portfolio construction that goes into any one of our funding vehicles.

我要補充的唯一另一件事是，我們確實做到了這裡的投資組合總數。我們認為，存在一些誤解，人們關注的不是投資組合拖欠，而是關註一種證券化工具或我們業務的一個特定部分。對於我們任何一種融資工具的投資組合構建，我們都非常考慮周到。

And each one has a unique profile based upon market demand and our needs. For example, the Split Pay content may change. We made pledge loans that have some sort of delinquency, et cetera. And so no one securitization data set can really represent the portfolio and would really encourage everybody to look at our investor supplement to see a real view of portfolio-wide DQs.

根據市場需求和我們的需求，每一個都有獨特的配置文件。例如，Split Pay 內容可能會發生變化。我們提供了具有某種拖欠等的質押貸款。因此，沒有一個證券化數據集可以真正代表投資組合，並且會真正鼓勵每個人查看我們的投資者補充資料，以了解投資組合範圍內 DQ 的真實視圖。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Chiodo with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Timothy Chiodo。

Michael, you touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks in terms of Slide 13, which has the merchant fee rates. And you're right, overall, most of the lines are pretty stable.

邁克爾，您在準備好的關於幻燈片 13 的評論中談到了這一點，其中包含商家費率。你是對的，總的來說，大部分線路都非常穩定。

I wanted to see if we could just touch on a few of them that are moving around a little bit, specifically the dark blue, which is the Split Pay seems to be ticking up a little bit in terms of the take rate. I was thinking maybe that could be related to Shopify. Also, the purple line, which is the core IB, just ticking down a hair, maybe related to Amazon? And then if you could help us maybe elaborate on either of those and also the green, the nonintegrated virtual card, could really appreciate that context.

我想看看我們是否可以觸及其中一些正在移動的，特別是深藍色，即拆分支付似乎在採取率方面略有上升。我在想也許這可能與 Shopify。還有，紫色的線，就是核心的IB，只滴一根頭髮，可能跟亞馬遜有關吧？然後，如果您可以幫助我們詳細說明其中的任何一個，以及綠色，非集成虛擬卡，可以真正理解這種情況。

Yes. The last we have the least amount of control over that really is a function of the network interchange that we earn. And I think you nailed it. The line that you see on Split Pay merchant fee rates up versus Q1, we were promotional with Shopify in particular, in Q1, but really up even year-on-year back to the fiscal Q2 in '21.

是的。最後一個我們對它的控制最少的是我們獲得的網絡交換的功能。我認為你成功了。您在 Split Pay 商家費率上看到的線條與第一季度相比有所上升，我們在第一季度特別對 Shopify 進行了促銷，但實際上與 21 財年第二季度相比甚至同比上升。

So we feel really good about our resiliency with respect to the most competitive space, which is the Split Pay product set. The IB line that you point out is a function of the growth that we have in our largest enterprises. We would earn less there than we would everywhere else. And part of the reason we're so confident in how we're growing is those two things mix in our favor, where you've got a lot of growth in the Split Pay offering with really high merchant fees and you have a lot of user growth that comes along with that, combined with these enterprise scale offerings that will drive tremendous processing volume as well as in the long run, we think really strong economics.

因此，我們對我們在最具競爭力的空間（即拆分支付產品集）方面的彈性感到非常滿意。您指出的 IB 線是我們在最大企業中增長的函數。我們在那裡掙的錢會比在其他地方少。我們對自己的增長方式如此有信心的部分原因是這兩件事對我們有利隨之而來的用戶增長，再加上這些將推動巨大處理量的企業級產品，以及從長遠來看，我們認為經濟性非常強勁。

So we feel really good about the mix. Really want investors to understand that when you average -- when you have the sort of major shifts in the mix in the portfolio, it will shake out differently in the income statement.

所以我們對混合感覺非常好。真的希望投資者明白，當你平均時——當你在投資組合中發生重大變化時，它會在損益表中以不同的方式發生變化。

Point well taken there on the various mix dynamics. I appreciate it. Quick follow-up is on processing costs. So I fully appreciate that the Shopify revenue share will hit in that line item, which could cause a little bit of upward pressure on that specific expense line, but a potential offset could be reduced card mix within their loan repayment. Is there any potential for you to work with someone like a Plaid or a Finicity to help increase the mix of direct bank account repayment?

在各種混音動態方面做得很好。我很感激。快速跟進處理成本。因此，我完全理解 Shopify 收入份額將在該項目中受到影響，這可能會對該特定費用項目造成一點上行壓力，但潛在的抵消可能是減少他們償還貸款中的卡組合。您是否有可能與像 Plaid 或 Finicity 這樣的人合作，以幫助增加直接銀行賬戶還款的組合？

Yes, there is the potential. I was just starting to fall asleep because you guys are asking Michael excellent questions, and he's doing a great job answering them. Sorry, the long story of it is, it's exactly right. The way I think, and it goes back many years now, the way we look at our transactional economics is in incredible for dimensions, one is, of course, lifetime value for consumer, kind of managing credit side of it.

是的，有潛力。我剛開始睡著，因為你們在問邁克爾很好的問題，而他在回答這些問題方面做得很好。抱歉，說來話長，完全正確。我認為的方式，現在可以追溯到很多年前，我們看待交易經濟學的方式在維度上令人難以置信，其中一個當然是消費者的終身價值，一種管理信用方面的方式。

But if you -- on the ROA basis, you have to look at the charge-offs that you incur. And once you -- Michael touched this really well, and it's kind of allover in my script, but basically, we manage it to a number. We decide what that's going to be, and we drive that to 8 basis points that we like per product, per merchant, et cetera.

但是，如果您 - 在 ROA 的基礎上，您必須查看您招致的沖銷。一旦你-- 邁克爾很好地觸及了這一點，它在我的劇本中有點全面，但基本上，我們把它控制在一個數字上。我們決定這將是什麼，並將其驅動到我們喜歡的每個產品、每個商家等的 8 個基點。

After you're done with that, you look at your other costs and servicing is the one where we're always really hesitant to mess too much because you want the consumer experience to be amazing. And obviously, over time, we'll optimize that to a perfect number for the sort of the high-touch wide web services have created is really, really valuable to us. We're completely ruthless on the rest of it.

完成後，您會查看其他成本，而服務是我們總是非常猶豫是否過多的成本，因為您希望消費者體驗令人驚嘆。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們將把它優化到一個完美的數字，因為這種高接觸廣泛的網絡服務已經創造了對我們來說非常非常有價值的東西。我們對其餘部分完全無情。

The repayment cost is something that just screams 80 basis points away. And you're totally right, there's lots and lots of opportunity. The repayment devices or vehicles are not all created equal. There's some really interesting innovation happening even sort of beyond ACH, which is currently kind of the most popular/cheapest one. And so we will absolutely do a lot of things there.

還款成本只差 80 個基點。你是完全正確的，有很多很多的機會。還款設備或車輛並非都是平等的。有一些非常有趣的創新正在發生，甚至超出了目前最受歡迎/最便宜的 ACH。所以我們絕對會在那裡做很多事情。

It is more important and in this whole story of this quarter we're reporting and going forward, we're still taking enormous amounts of white space. The growth of the network is what we are grading ourselves on right now. We are paying attention to cost and at scale will be the real dollars, and we'll invest in a reduction of these costs involved. And you guessed pretty well where opportunities are.

更重要的是，在本季度的整個故事中，我們正在報告並繼續前進，我們仍在佔用大量空白空間。網絡的發展是我們現在給自己打分的依據。我們正在關注成本，並且在規模上將是真正的美元，我們將投資降低這些成本。你猜得很好機會在哪裡。

Our next question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wanted to ask about the spread between volumes and revenue less transaction costs and just kind of get your expectations about where those kind of yields should sort of trend and shake out over the next few quarters? Where do they exit the year? What should we think about in terms of next year modeling them out? If you could comment on that, that would be very helpful.

我想問一下交易量和收入之間的差額減去交易成本，只是讓你對未來幾個季度這些收益率應該在哪裡趨向和震蕩的預期有所了解？他們在哪裡退出這一年？在明年對它們進行建模時，我們應該考慮什麼？如果您可以對此發表評論，那將非常有幫助。

Yes. We're not ready to give guidance for '23, so I'll avoid that one. But I think the guide that you see and the results we just posted, we talk a lot about the long-term economics of the business being somewhere between 3% and 4% on a revenue less transaction cost basis. And we're on the higher end of that last quarter and inside the guidance for the back half of the year as well.

是的。我們還沒有準備好為 23 年提供指導，所以我會避免那個。但我認為你看到的指南和我們剛剛發布的結果，我們談論了很多關於業務的長期經濟性在收入減去交易成本的基礎上介於 3% 和 4% 之間。而且我們處於上個季度的高端，並且也在今年下半年的指導範圍內。

While I think there -- it is changing quite quickly with respect to the product level economics, if you're taking on a Split Pay product with 5% to 5.5% merchant fees, you're not going to be making 4 points of margin. And so you do expect a little bit of compression on a percentage of GMV basis on the Split Pay business. And yet the opposite is true on our interest-bearing business where we're able to earn even higher total revenue less transaction costs, but over time.

雖然我認為 - 就產品層面的經濟性而言，它正在迅速發生變化，但如果您採用具有 5% 至 5.5% 商家費用的 Split Pay 產品，您將不會獲得 4 個點的利潤.因此，您確實希望在拆分支付業務的 GMV 百分比基礎上進行一點壓縮。然而，在我們的計息業務中情況正好相反，我們能夠以更少的交易成本獲得更高的總收入，但隨著時間的推移。

And I think as we continue to scale some of our enterprise partnerships, you're going to see some, again, back-endedness to the timing of those things. So our guidance reflects the mix that we expect over the next 6 months. And we'll update everybody with '23 back when we talk later this year. But we're not at all concerned with our long-term guidance of staying in the 3% to 4% range, which we believe is still materially better than our competition.

我認為隨著我們繼續擴大我們的一些企業合作夥伴關係，你會再次看到這些事情的時間安排的一些後端。因此，我們的指導反映了我們對未來 6 個月的預期組合。當我們今年晚些時候談話時，我們將用 '23 回來更新每個人。但我們根本不關心我們保持在 3% 到 4% 範圍內的長期指導，我們認為這仍然比我們的競爭對手要好得多。

Okay. And I guess more broadly on profitability, can you kind of give us your updated view on the sort of longer-term multiyear path to profitability? Has ramping up any of these larger, significantly larger partners like the Amazons of the world, maybe faster than expected the ramp-down of Peloton? Has there been any change to your view or approach or ability to kind of solve for profitability at the same pace over the longer term?

好的。而且我想更廣泛地討論盈利能力，您能否向我們提供您對長期多年盈利路徑的最新看法？有沒有像世界亞馬遜這樣的大型、顯著更大的合作夥伴中的任何一個，可能比 Peloton 的下降速度更快？從長遠來看，您以相同速度解決盈利問題的觀點、方法或能力是否有任何變化？

No. I mean, Max's line in the setup today, is what I'd like to reiterate, which is our strategy hasn't changed. We talked about the financial model and framework in September, and that remains true no matter the macro conditions changing. While we have the opportunity to grow at this pace with what we think are industry-leading unit economics, we're not going to take our foot off the gas, and we're going to keep scaling up the network.

不，我的意思是，Max 今天在設置中的路線，是我想重申的，這是我們的策略沒有改變。我們在 9 月份談到了財務模型和框架，無論宏觀環境如何變化，這仍然是正確的。雖然我們有機會以我們認為行業領先的單位經濟學以這種速度增長，但我們不會鬆懈，我們將繼續擴大網絡規模。

And the path towards profitability, the long-term financial profile of the business remains the same, and it is a function of us, we're achieving scale greater than where we're adding human capital. Human capital is what's driving all of these, we think, fantastic results, and we're still well prepared to keep investing into what we think is an incredible growth opportunity.

通往盈利的道路，企業的長期財務狀況保持不變，這是我們的一項職能，我們正在實現比我們增加人力資本的規模更大的規模。我們認為，人力資本是推動所有這些的驅動因素，取得了驚人的成果，而且我們仍然做好充分準備，繼續投資於我們認為令人難以置信的增長機會。

Just one more, like one more way of thinking about it that, I guess, utilize. And fundamentally, just from going back to my experience 20-odd years ago, pricing power of a payments network is directly proportionate to the number of active users it has. Like ultimately, when you come to market and say, I have a product and I would like you to buy my way of delivering tender, the price this product is able to command is inevitably a function of how many people are using that product prefer it, would like to use that to check out whatever way you want to call it.

再多一種，就像我猜想利用的另一種思考方式一樣。從根本上說，回顧我 20 多年前的經驗，支付網絡的定價能力與其擁有的活躍用戶數量成正比。最終，當你進入市場並說，我有一個產品，我希望你購買我的招標方式時，這個產品能夠控制的價格不可避免地取決於有多少人在使用該產品喜歡它，想用它來檢查你想調用的任何方式。

And so the reason we are so consumer growth and coverage obsessed isn't for some sort of a vanity number, but the fact that ultimately, we intend to come to market and say, we are the largest network. We are the most active network. We would like you to pay for that appropriately. And so this growth is a direct tie to the path to profitability.

因此，我們如此痴迷於消費者增長和覆蓋面的原因不是為了某種虛榮數字，而是我們最終打算進入市場並說我們是最大的網絡這一事實。我們是最活躍的網絡。我們希望您為此支付適當的費用。因此，這種增長與盈利之路直接相關。

I see. Great. So not too much has changed since your prior view despite other businesses evolve. I appreciate it.

我知道了。偉大的。因此，儘管其他業務不斷發展，但與您之前的觀點相比並沒有太大變化。我很感激。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Dan Perlin。

I wanted to ask a question around the kind of frequency of repeat customers versus the first-time users. You have a slide on that a little bit. And the question is really the interplay there between your customer acquisition model, and how we should be thinking about that influencing cost into the second half of the year and maybe even into next year?

我想問一個關於回頭客與首次用戶的頻率的問題。你有一張幻燈片。問題實際上是您的客戶獲取模式之間的相互作用，以及我們應該如何考慮影響到下半年甚至明年的成本？

Yes, so -- I'll start and then Max can add on. I mean, I think we're actually -- we included that slide in the supplement because we're really proud of what's going on underneath the surface, where we have a step change in the number of users, 150% growth and increasing frequency when you have that much user growth is actually really challenging. And if you look at a chart and look at just the total transactions from repeat users and the growth there alongside the net new user growth. It is a really -- which feels like a really good spot for the business. There is some impact with respect to the rate of new user growth on unit economics.

是的，所以——我會開始，然後 Max 可以添加。我的意思是，我認為我們實際上是 - 我們將這張幻燈片包含在補充中，因為我們對錶面下發生的事情感到非常自豪，我們在用戶數量方面有了一個階梯式的變化，150% 的增長和頻率的增加當您擁有如此多的用戶增長實際上是非常具有挑戰性的。如果您查看圖表並僅查看重複用戶的總交易量以及那裡的增長以及淨新用戶增長。這是一個非常 - 感覺就像是一個非常適合業務的地方。新用戶增長率對單位經濟有一定影響。

First time use tends to be slightly less profitable than the lifetime value of the consumer. And so you do have a little bit of start-up costs associated with that user growth. But as Max mentioned before, long term, that's much more important to us. So we're going to keep adding users at a very aggressive clip. We're going to stay focused on that. And part of the reason we have so much confidence in the long-term economics is that's happening right alongside tremendous growth in repeat usage on the platform. When we talk about network effects in the business, that's what that means. And in the long run, it gives us all the confidence in the world around where the economics will ultimately be.

首次使用的利潤往往略低於消費者的終身價值。所以你確實有一些與用戶增長相關的啟動成本。但正如 Max 之前提到的，從長遠來看，這對我們來說更為重要。因此，我們將繼續以非常激進的剪輯添加用戶。我們將繼續專注於此。我們對長期經濟如此充滿信心的部分原因是，這種情況發生在平台重複使用量的巨大增長的同時。當我們談論業務中的網絡效應時，就是這個意思。從長遠來看，它讓我們對經濟最終將走向何方的世界充滿信心。

Yes. I thought that was a pretty impressive set of numbers as you think about growing the network that quickly to have that level of frequency so quickly.

是的。我認為這是一組非常令人印象深刻的數字，因為您考慮快速發展網絡以如此迅速地達到這種頻率水平。

So the other question I have, do you have any insight that you could share with us around kind of January trends, in particular around the health of maybe some of the lower income cohorts that might be coming into the portfolio. I know some players out there have some concerns around what that dynamic is looking like. So if you could share any of those, that would be great.

所以我的另一個問題是，關於 1 月份的趨勢，你有什麼可以與我們分享的見解，特別是關於可能進入投資組合的一些低收入人群的健康狀況。我知道有些玩家對這種動態的樣子有些擔憂。因此，如果您可以分享其中任何一個，那就太好了。

Yes. I think what you saw in the disclosure around the delinquency trend is similar to -- I think you should think about it, which is to date, our credit outcomes are still a function of the decisions we've taken with respect to approval rates.

是的。我認為您在有關拖欠趨勢的披露中看到的類似於-我認為您應該考慮一下，也就是說，迄今為止，我們的信用結果仍然是我們就批准率做出的決定的函數。

There's obviously any number of seasonal effects that do require taking a fine-tooth comb over, but not seeing the broader weakness that others have seen in our overall credit performance. And feel really good about where we're at, and that's what gives us, again, the confidence to give the guide that we have for this quarter.

顯然，有許多季節性影響確實需要仔細梳理，但沒有看到其他人在我們的整體信貸表現中看到的更廣泛的疲軟。並且對我們所處的位置感覺非常好，這就是讓我們再次有信心提供本季度指南的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Okay. So I just wanted to come back to this kind of general topic of we're adding $1.5 billion of GMV to the full year guide, but we're basically not changing revenue less transaction expense. I know you're talking about the interest-bearing loans and kind of the revenue recognition dynamics there. I mean how long is that lag typically? I mean I think this is a dynamic that's kind of throwing people off a bit? And how much of this sort of dynamic is due to Amazon?

好的。所以我只想回到我們在全年指南中增加 15 億美元的 GMV 的一般性話題，但我們基本上不會改變收入減去交易費用。我知道你在談論有息貸款和那裡的收入確認動態。我的意思是這種延遲通常是多長時間？我的意思是我認為這是一種讓人們有點失望的動態？這種動態有多少歸功於亞馬遜？

Yes. So the Amazon is part of it. But while the growth rate in Amazon -- well, the addition of Amazon is great for us. As we communicated, we still double the GMV excluding Amazon. And so we know there's a lot of growth happening across the whole portfolio, so it's not just limited to Amazon.

是的。所以亞馬遜是其中的一部分。但是，雖然亞馬遜的增長率——嗯，亞馬遜的加入對我們來說很棒。在我們溝通時，我們仍然將 GMV 翻倍，不包括亞馬遜。所以我們知道整個產品組合都在發生很大的增長，所以它不僅限於亞馬遜。

But the interest-bearing portfolio is growing quite quickly, and that does tend to have that effect that you talked about. The other obvious impact with respect to the revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV is the mix towards Split Pay, again, as it does run lower.

但是計息投資組合增長很快，這確實會產生你所說的那種效果。關於收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 百分比的另一個明顯影響是拆分支付的組合，因為它確實運行得更低。

Again, it's a repeated theme with us, but product mix really does shake out with respect to the take rates on both revenue and the revenue less transaction costs. And again, I think the only other thing to repeat is we feel like we're operating at the higher end of the range that we've given folks in that 3% to 4% range and have a lot of confidence, again, in our long-term unit economics here. And again, would put ourselves up against anybody in our space with respect to the rates at which we're delivering here.

同樣，這是我們重複的主題，但產品組合確實在收入和收入減去交易成本的收入方面發生了變化。再說一次，我認為唯一要重複的另一件事是，我們覺得我們在我們給人們的 3% 到 4% 範圍內的範圍的高端運營，並且再次有很大的信心，在我們在這裡的長期單位經濟學。再說一次，就我們在這裡交付的速度而言，我們會讓自己與我們所在領域的任何人抗衡。

Okay. And then I guess just for the back half of the year, how should we be thinking about GMV growth, excluding Peloton? Like has your full year expectation on Peloton changed at all, just given some of the challenges that they're having.

好的。然後我想就在今年下半年，我們應該如何考慮 GMV 的增長，不包括 Peloton？就像您對 Peloton 的全年期望完全改變一樣，只是考慮到他們面臨的一些挑戰。

Yes. Our current guidance reflects all of our current thinking on where they're at. We had, frankly, a good quarter in Q2, above our internal expectations and feel like they're still delivering an incredible amount of volume for us.

是的。我們當前的指導反映了我們當前對它們所處位置的所有想法。坦率地說，我們在第二季度有一個不錯的季度，超出了我們的內部預期，並且感覺他們仍在為我們提供令人難以置信的數量。

And we admire their brand and we admire the loyalty that they have amongst their consumers, and we'll keep partnering with them. We launched with them in Australia this past quarter, and we're going to keep helping them grow their business.

我們欽佩他們的品牌，我們欽佩他們在消費者中的忠誠度，我們將繼續與他們合作。上個季度，我們與他們一起在澳大利亞推出，我們將繼續幫助他們發展業務。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

I appreciate you taking the question. Maybe as it relates to Shopify, I'm still trying to sort of reconcile James' question a little bit, too. I think you said it's -- it will be 15% to 20% Split Pay will be about 15% to 20% of GMV this year.

感謝您提出這個問題。也許因為它與 Shopify 相關，我仍在嘗試稍微調和 James 的問題。我想你說的是——今年將是 15% 到 20% 拆分薪酬將是 GMV 的 15% 到 20% 左右。

I guess the first question would be, where do you think that can go? It's a pretty quick ramp, although not totally out of line with our expectations. And then the follow-up would be, it kind of implies, based on your guidance that the rest of the business is growing about 45% volume-wise, which might be a little bit lower than we might have thought. Can you just address those two points?

我想第一個問題是，你認為它可以去哪裡？這是一個相當快的斜坡，雖然並不完全符合我們的預期。然後，根據您的指導，後續行動將暗示，其餘業務的銷量增長約 45%，這可能比我們想像的要低一點。能不能只說這兩點？

I'll start and I'll let Michael finish. And so I don't think we'll break out exactly what percentage of Shopify, Split Pay and someone's is, but it's obviously growing very well. The merchant adoption has been excellent and yet there's no shortage of demand. And so I'm confident it can go up more. We -- I don't think we're breaking that out in our guidance, or Michael can correct me if I'm wrong here.

我會開始，我會讓邁克爾完成。因此，我認為我們不會確切地確定 Shopify、Split Pay 和某人的百分比，但它顯然增長得非常好。商家的採用率非常好，但需求並不短缺。所以我有信心它可以上漲更多。我們——我不認為我們在我們的指導中打破了這一點，或者如果我在這裡錯了，邁克爾可以糾正我。

But there's an enormous amount of growth there. Just if you take a quick look at Shop Pay, shopping installments doesn't even support interest-bearing loans today. But that alone as a headline should give you a pretty good idea that the service has been scratched but with not a lot more.

但是那裡有巨大的增長。如果您快速瀏覽一下 Shop Pay，現在購物分期付款甚至不支持有息貸款。但僅此作為標題就應該讓您很好地了解該服務已被劃傷但沒有更多。

Yes. And so 15% to 20% is a good number, how big could it be? It could be very big. Just like we have launched interest bearing on Shopify, we haven't launched Split Pay with either of our two largest enterprise merchants. So I have a lot of confidence that, that number can continue to go up.

是的。所以 15% 到 20% 是一個很好的數字，它有多大？它可能非常大。就像我們在 Shopify 上推出的利息一樣，我們還沒有與我們兩個最大的企業商家中的任何一個推出 Split Pay。所以我很有信心，這個數字可以繼續上升。

I think the only other point with respect to the rest of the portfolio growth is just we are up against continued elevated levels in our, call it, a long-term 0 financed business. And we would continue to expect some of that to be a drag on the balance of the portfolio, but not something that we're trying to, again, target a Q3 growth number. We're thinking about how this network scales and then how those network effects show up with repeat usage across the whole portfolio.

我認為，就其他投資組合增長而言，唯一的另一點是我們正面臨著我們所謂的長期零融資業務的持續高水平。我們將繼續預計其中一些會拖累投資組合的平衡，但不是我們試圖再次以第三季度增長數字為目標的東西。我們正在考慮這個網絡如何擴展，然後這些網絡效應如何隨著整個產品組合的重複使用而顯現出來。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Bauch with SMBC Nikko Securities America.

我們的下一個問題來自 SMBC Nikko Securities America 的 Andrew Bauch。

I wanted to ask a question about the CFPB buy now, pay later. And from whatever you can share, is there anything you've garnered from those initial discussions that kind of give us a sense of how they're looking at the offering going forward?

我想問一個關於 CFPB 現在購買，以後付款的問題。從您可以分享的任何內容中，您從最初的討論中獲得了什麼讓我們了解他們如何看待未來的產品？

Sure. First of all, it's obviously not for us to comment on their work there. The thing that's been true for us over the last 10 years is that we have a very, very high moral ground approach to this entire business to the way we conduct ourselves to the way we treat consumers, the way we deal with disputes, et cetera, et cetera. And so openings kept equal. We've been at the forefront of the industry, suggesting to the regulators that they should have a look and a set of clear rules and just a good guidance around the conduct of all the players.

當然。首先，我們顯然不能評論他們在那裡的工作。在過去的 10 年裡，對我們而言，事實是，我們對整個業務的行為方式、對待消費者的方式、處理糾紛的方式等等都有非常、非常高的道德基礎。 ，等等。所以開口保持相等。我們一直走在行業的最前沿，向監管機構建議他們應該看看並製定一套明確的規則，並就所有參與者的行為提供良好的指導。

And so in that sense, it's a positive news. That's a -- the regulatory relationship is both a very, very important thing, a very serious thing. We're interacting with them. There's a fairly detailed request for information. Obviously, we will reply to that. But all else being equal, I think regulatory attention to the space is great. I was a little bit glib when I pointed out that in a public record of the information demand, there was quite a lot of space dedicated to asking for the information around fees charged, the late fees or deferred interest or all sorts of other things. And we filled that out with zeros because we don't charge any of those things to consumers. We took a small amount of pride in that we stuck to our mission and stuck to our approach to treating consumers right.

所以從這個意義上說，這是一個積極的消息。那是——監管關係既是一件非常非常重要的事情，也是一件非常嚴肅的事情。我們正在與他們互動。有一個相當詳細的信息請求。顯然，我們會對此作出答复。但在其他條件相同的情況下，我認為監管部門對該領域的關注度很高。當我指出在信息需求的公共記錄中，有相當多的空間專門用於詢問有關收取的費用、滯納金或遞延利息或各種其他事情的信息時，我有點油嘴滑舌。我們用零填寫，因為我們不向消費者收取任何這些費用。我們有一點自豪，因為我們堅持我們的使命，堅持我們正確對待消費者的方法。

That said, I'm confident, over time, there will be more regulatory attention and we will comply with all the necessary rules, and we'll do well there. So too early to tell what the future looks like. It's certainly for them to determine, but we're very happy to engage.

話雖如此，我有信心，隨著時間的推移，將會有更多的監管關注，我們將遵守所有必要的規則，我們會在這方面做得很好。所以說未來會是什麼樣子還為時過早。這當然是由他們決定的，但我們很樂意參與。

Helpful. My follow-up would be, is there any kind of guidepost that you're going to give us from a macro perspective, what you're embedding in the outlook for unemployment, inflation and rates? And I appreciate the color on the interest rate moves to the impact of the model, but just kind of thinking about what a baseline number that you're embedding in your assumption would be?

有幫助。我的後續行動是，您是否將從宏觀角度給我們提供任何指導，您在失業率、通貨膨脹和利率前景中嵌入了什麼？我很欣賞利率變動對模型影響的影響，但只是想一想你在假設中嵌入的基線數字是多少？

Yes. Sorry, I'll -- this time I get to take the picture last. The last one was yours, but -- so -- and I'm sure we'll have macro views as well. But just the thing that I think people really misunderstand about our products, maybe because it is more popular outside of high finance perhaps, when the interest rates go up and the prices go really -- when prices go up, our product is more useful. If you try to make ends meet and you're trying to pay for a couch and your credit card is confusing you and the rates just went up and it ends, Affirm gives you clarity and a way to pay for things and a clear schedule and then you're done and there are no late fees.

是的。抱歉，我會——這次我要最後拍一張。最後一個是你的，但是 - 所以 - 我相信我們也會有宏觀視圖。但我認為人們真正誤解了我們的產品，也許是因為它在高金融之外更受歡迎，當利率上升並且價格真的上漲時——當價格上漲時，我們的產品更有用。如果您試圖維持生計，並且試圖支付沙發費用並且您的信用卡讓您感到困惑並且費率剛剛上漲並結束，那麼 Affirm 會為您提供清晰的支付方式和明確的時間表和然後你就完成了，沒有滯納金。

And half the time, plus or minus, the seller will sponsor a new payment interest. Just here are the basic thought experiment. If the card rates that you paid went up 5%, for example, how do you feel about the 0% rate that a seller at a homeware shop is offering you powered Affirm, like it's 5% more compelling.

在一半的時間裡，加減，賣方將贊助新的支付利息。這裡是基本的思想實驗。例如，如果您支付的卡費率上漲 5%，您如何看待家居用品商店的賣家向您提供的 0% 費率，就像它更具吸引力一樣 5%。

And so as inflation happens, the product that we provide is actually more powerful and more useful, has significantly better bearing on sort of the consumer demand side of it. On the flip side of course, the government addresses inflation, raises rates, et cetera. I'll stop now and Michael can tell you what we've done about it, but all things get equal at that top line, this is generally a tailwind, not a headwind.

因此，隨著通貨膨脹的發生，我們提供的產品實際上更強大、更有用，對消費者需求方面的影響要大得多。當然，另一方面，政府會解決通貨膨脹、提高利率等問題。我現在要停下來，邁克爾可以告訴你我們對此做了什麼，但是所有事情在那個頂線上都是平等的，這通常是順風，而不是逆風。

Yes. Just the total avoidance of doubt, all of our outlook reflects the forward curve. And so there's roughly 180 basis points of rate increases. We take that into all of our models when we give guidance. It's consistent with the market expectation of rate movement. And so we talk about rising rates. That's not a problem for us at all. That's already reflected in the guidance.

是的。完全避免疑問，我們所有的展望都反映了遠期曲線。因此，加息幅度大約為 180 個基點。當我們提供指導時，我們會將這一點納入我們所有的模型中。這與市場對利率走勢的預期一致。所以我們談論利率上升。這對我們來說根本不是問題。這已經反映在指導中。

Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

Just two clarifications, I guess, just because it's come up a few times. But the implied revenue transaction cost take rate, when you gave guidance for Q2, it was almost about 5%. And so I think one of the surprises was that it came in at 4.1%. So -- and you talked about mix. So was that just that you didn't realize that the Shop Pay business was going to grow that much and it had that much of a factor on it? Just trying to make sure the guidance versus the actual.

我想只有兩個澄清，只是因為它出現了幾次。但是隱含的收入交易成本採取率，當你給出第二季度的指導時，它幾乎是 5% 左右。所以我認為其中一個驚喜是它的比例為 4.1%。所以 - 你談到了混合。那麼，僅僅是您沒有意識到 Shop Pay 業務將會增長如此之快，而且其中有這麼多因素嗎？只是試圖確保指導與實際。

Yes, that's right. The mix impact of the business, the growth that we saw, which was obviously well in excess of the guidance that we had given in the quarter tended to mix towards either lower revenue less transaction costs, take rates as a percentage of the total or tend to be a little bit more back-end weighted. And both those two effects caused the percent to go down despite the fact that we did, of course, beat the guidance on a dollar basis.

是的，這是正確的。業務的混合影響，我們看到的增長，顯然遠遠超過了我們在本季度給出的指導，傾向於混合降低收入減去交易成本，將費率作為總額的百分比或傾向於後端加權多一點。儘管我們確實確實超出了以美元為基礎的指導，但這兩種影響都導致百分比下降。

Got it. And then the follow-up question we get often is the profitability on those larger contracts like in Amazon or Shop Pay. How do we think about that? Because those -- obviously, those terms are with some larger merchants, typically in merchant acquiring, the larger merchants push pricing the hardest. And so it's really all pricing is made on SMB. So just trying to think about that relationship.

知道了。然後我們經常遇到的後續問題是亞馬遜或 Shop Pay 等大型合同的盈利能力。我們怎麼看？因為那些——顯然，這些條款適用於一些較大的商家，通常是在商家收單中，較大的商家推動定價最困難。所以實際上所有的定價都是在 SMB 上進行的。所以只是試著想想這種關係。

Yes. If you look at the merchant take rate slide again in the supplement, you'll see that we're doing quite well on the Split Pay business with respect to our ability to continue to earn good fees. We're not breaking out profitability by partner.

是的。如果您再次查看補充中的商家收取率下滑，您會發現我們在拆分支付業務方面做得很好，因為我們有能力繼續賺取良好的費用。我們沒有按合作夥伴劃分盈利能力。

But I think a key part of the reason we were able to deliver these exceptional enterprise experiences to the largest merchants is the fact that we're not just reliant on merchant fees. The fact that we do have consumer interest in the economic model does allow us to get to the merchant fee clearing rates that work for largest enterprises while still delivering really strong unit economics.

但我認為，我們能夠向最大的商家提供這些卓越的企業體驗的一個關鍵部分是因為我們不僅僅依賴商家費用。我們確實對經濟模型感興趣，這一事實確實使我們能夠獲得適用於大型企業的商家費用清算率，同時仍然提供非常強大的單位經濟性。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自丹·多列夫（Dan Dolev）和瑞穗（Mizuho）的觀點。

I just have a question regarding kind of where you are in terms of GMV and what's implied in the guidance? I'm still trying to get my head around the massive beat in the quarter.

我只是有一個問題，關於您在 GMV 方面的情況以及指南中暗示了什麼？我仍在努力了解本季度的巨大節拍。

And then you seem to be guiding kind of in terms of a sequential basis a much lower GMV. I just want to make sure that this is hopefully a sign of conservatism and that there's the question we're getting a lot from investors this evening is that there's maybe something else that got weaker. So we just want to reassure ourselves and investors that this is simply being conservative given the strong results.

然後你似乎在按順序指導低得多的 GMV。我只是想確保這有望成為保守主義的跡象，並且今晚我們從投資者那裡得到的很多問題是，可能還有其他一些東西變得更弱了。因此，我們只想向自己和投資者保證，鑑於強勁的結果，這只是保守。

First of all, I think Michael already mentioned this, the seasonality is a significant component of this business. And so that's an important piece of the puzzle. I'm not sure exactly what you're asking about in terms of something may have gotten weaker, not from our point of view. I think we've done fine and not anticipating weakness. But we try to make sure that we promise and deliver as opposed to promise and hold our breath and see what happens. That's probably a philosophical approach to guide out there.

首先，我認為邁克爾已經提到了這一點，季節性是這項業務的重要組成部分。所以這是拼圖中的一個重要部分。我不確定您所問的確切內容可能會變得更弱，而不是從我們的角度來看。我認為我們做得很好，沒有預料到會出現弱點。但我們試圖確保我們承諾並交付，而不是承諾並屏住呼吸，看看會發生什麼。這可能是一種指導那裡的哲學方法。

Got it. Yes. Sorry, I didn't mean to sort of harp on it. If I look at sort of pre-COVID kind of trends on a GMV basis, it doesn't look like at least like Q3, Q4 weaker. That's why I asked the question, but...

知道了。是的。抱歉，我不是故意要吹毛求疵的。如果我在 GMV 的基礎上查看 COVID 之前的那種趨勢，它看起來至少不像 Q3、Q4 更弱。這就是我問這個問題的原因，但是...

Again, in kind of all honesty, the quarter we just exited, just an absolutely monster. And so no matter what you sort of say for the next one, it will look like, well, that's what happened here. But our transaction volume, I'm going to remember here, so I may be wrong, Michael, correct me, but I think we've tripled year-on-year of Black Friday, Cyber Monday transaction counts. That should -- we haven't tripled any metric of that class with a Series B or C company. And so the growth of GMV and transactions accelerated quite a lot. We'll digest and grow some more.

再說一次，老實說，我們剛剛退出的那個季度，絕對是一個怪物。所以無論你對下一個說什麼，它看起來，嗯，這就是這裡發生的事情。但是我們的交易量，我要在這裡記住，所以我可能是錯的，邁克爾，請糾正我，但我認為我們的黑色星期五和網絡星期一的交易量同比增長了兩倍。那應該——我們沒有將 B 輪或 C 輪公司的該類別的任何指標提高三倍。因此 GMV 和交易量的增長加速了很多。我們會消化和成長一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vincent Caintic 和 Stephens 的對話。

And thanks for all the details on the credit trends, all the slides there. I just wanted to follow up on that. I guess there's this concern about credit normalization and how it impacts the business, if at all. And so looking at the slides, the delinquencies still below 2019, but getting there, the net charge-off as well.

感謝您提供有關信用趨勢的所有詳細信息，以及那裡的所有幻燈片。我只是想跟進。我想人們擔心信用正常化以及它如何影響業務，如果有的話。所以看看幻燈片，拖欠率仍然低於 2019 年，但到了那裡，淨沖銷也是如此。

Just wondering, as you're thinking if credit is normalizing, how does that impact the business? And if you can describe some of the offsets that you mentioned earlier, like the optimizations, the merchant pricing and so on, that would be helpful.

只是想知道，當您考慮信貸是否正常化時，這對業務有何影響？如果你能描述你之前提到的一些抵消，比如優化、商家定價等等，那將會很有幫助。

I'll start and let Michael chime in as well. So I'll never tired of repeating it, but we choose the delinquency number we post, module compensating or a completely unexpected events, our job/goal/approach is to drive to a number that we like here. And we feel that we were probably, retrospectively, unnecessarily careful or necessarily tight for lack of a better term. And then so we've loosened quite deliberately. And as you noted, we've also -- or someone else actually already noticed that we have now gotten to roughly the range that we like and we'll continue managing the number.

我將開始並讓邁克爾也加入進來。所以我永遠不會厭倦重複它，但我們選擇我們發布的拖欠數字、模塊補償或完全意外的事件，我們的工作/目標/方法是推動我們在這裡喜歡的數字。而且我們認為，回想起來，我們可能因為缺乏更好的術語而不必要地小心或必然緊張。然後我們故意放鬆了。正如你所指出的，我們也 - 或者其他人實際上已經註意到我們現在已經大致達到了我們喜歡的範圍，我們將繼續管理這個數字。

And so in that sense, they're inevitably ups and downs in consumer behavior and stimulus winding up and all the other versions of microeconomic events impacting the business. But we have an enormous number of transactions sort of -- think of it as a curve that's differentiable at every point basically -- I'm sure it's not infinite number of drivers, but it's a high number of derivatives in terms of ability to differentiate, which means at any given time, we have control, both at a product level and at the consumer level and also not being a line of credit allows us to differentiate a specific point of purchase to the type of transaction.

因此，從這個意義上說，它們不可避免地會在消費者行為和刺激措施結束以及影響業務的所有其他版本的微觀經濟事件方面起起落落。但是我們有大量的交易——把它想像成一條基本上在每個點上都可以區分的曲線——我敢肯定這不是無限數量的驅動因素，而是就區分能力而言，它是大量的衍生品，這意味著在任何給定時間，我們都可以在產品層面和消費者層面進行控制，而且不是信用額度允許我們將特定購買點與交易類型區分開來。

And so we'll consider driving to the outcomes that we need, we want for our margin and our numbers. And the macroeconomic realities or -- is our read of it is what shapes our willingness to sort of bet into the gray zone. And as we read the macroeconomic numbers, we'll become less or more willing to -- I'll allow into the system. But it's something that is a tweak -- in that sense, it's always hard for me to react to what is the macroeconomic -- what is the wider consumer trend doing? There's a lot more demand for our product than we are approving in many cases because it's just a (inaudible) for the consumer to borrow, certainly borrow from us given our loss of guardrails, no late fees, et cetera. So in that sense, this demand for our product significantly outstrips our willingness to take the risk, and we'll continue managing sort of the right thoughts there.

因此，我們將考慮推動實現我們需要的結果，我們想要我們的利潤和我們的數字。宏觀經濟現實或者——是我們對它的解讀是什麼塑造了我們在灰色地帶下注的意願。當我們閱讀宏觀經濟數據時，我們會變得或多或少願意——我會允許進入系統。但這是一種調整——從這個意義上說，我總是很難對宏觀經濟做出反應——更廣泛的消費趨勢在做什麼？在許多情況下，對我們的產品的需求比我們批准的要多得多，因為這只是消費者藉用的（聽不清），考慮到我們失去了護欄、沒有滯納金等等，肯定是從我們這裡借來的。因此，從這個意義上說，對我們產品的這種需求大大超過了我們承擔風險的意願，我們將繼續在那裡管理正確的想法。

Okay. Great. I mean, I guess, following up on that, your -- so it's -- you have credit -- the credit variables as an input of your decision making. I mean, I guess, if there is kind of a macro credit issue, is that -- doesn't sound like that's really going to impact volumes or merchant pricing that should stay the same because your product becomes more valuable in that situation? Or maybe if you could talk about, I don't know, like the inputs and outputs there?

好的。偉大的。我的意思是，我想，跟進那個，你的 - 所以它 - 你有信用 - 信用變量作為你決策的輸入。我的意思是，我想，如果存在某種宏觀信貸問題，那聽起來是否真的會影響銷量或商家定價，因為在這種情況下你的產品變得更有價值，所以應該保持不變？或者如果你能談談，我不知道，比如那裡的輸入和輸出？

So I'll tell you a little bit of a color-generating anecdotes. In the earliest days of the pandemic, we actually went to our merchants and said, "Look, we believe the macroeconomic conditions are going to worsen before they get better. We don't really know. there's a lot of uncertainty. For those of you who are very focused on the bottom line, we are going to adjust credits, which means that approvals will go down a little bit."

所以我會告訴你一些產生色彩的軼事。在大流行的最初幾天，我們實際上去找我們的商人說，“看，我們相信宏觀經濟狀況會在好轉之前惡化。我們真的不知道。有很多不確定性。對於那些你們非常關注底線，我們會調整信用，這意味著批准會下降一點。”

We're dealing on the margin here, so this is points up or down. But for those focused on the top line, and it all depends on the margin embedded in the merchant's product, right? And some people manufacture their own, others resell, something they buy and then resell it again. But the margin content that they have is usable to increase our accrual and allow us to bet in the ability to repay sort of gray zone where the model say, our ability is not 100%.

我們在這里處理的是保證金，所以這是向上或向下的點。但是對於那些專注於收入的人來說，這一切都取決於商家產品中嵌入的利潤，對吧？有些人自己製造，其他人轉售，他們購買然後再轉售。但是他們擁有的保證金內容可用於增加我們的應計收入，並允許我們押注在模型所說的灰色地帶的償還能力上，我們的能力不是 100%。

And we, generally speaking, were able to command a significantly -- significant price increases at the merchant base during the early days of the pandemic because the products that we provide to the consumer in the moments of uncertainty is just so (expletive) powerful. And so yes, generally speaking, I mean there's lots of sort of asterisks to add there. And macroeconomic issues can be described as all kinds of things. But as the economy ebbs and flows, if consumers need more access to credit, many, many, many of our partners are very happy to pay more for that consumers to complete transactions because the certainty and sense of control that we provide is what helps them move merchandise off the shelves.

一般來說，在大流行初期，我們能夠在商家基礎上實現顯著的價格上漲，因為我們在不確定的時刻向消費者提供的產品是如此（咒罵）強大。所以是的，一般來說，我的意思是那裡有很多星號要添加。宏觀經濟問題可謂五花八門。但是隨著經濟的起起落落，如果消費者需要更多的信貸渠道，我們的許多、許多、許多合作夥伴都非常樂意為這些消費者支付更多費用以完成交易，因為我們提供的確定性和控制感對他們有幫助將商品下架。

And so in that sense, it's a little glib, but macroeconomic uncertainty is actually a driver of business like ours. If everybody was just swimming in government stimulus money, maybe just buy everything for cash. And so the discontinuation of various stimuli is on net, a positive driver for the business, both on the consumer demand side and the merchants' willingness to pay for our services.

所以從這個意義上說，這有點油嘴滑舌，但宏觀經濟的不確定性實際上是像我們這樣的企業的驅動力。如果每個人都只是在政府刺激資金中游泳，也許只是用現金購買一切。因此，各種刺激措施的終止在網上對業務產生了積極的推動作用，無論是在消費者需求方面，還是在商家為我們的服務付費的意願方面。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Brendler with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Brendler 和 D.A.戴維森。

I will start a little bit more boring on the expense side. Pretty big sequential increases in all the non-GAAP expenses, technology, sales and marketing. I just wanted to get a sense, is that related to some of the ramp-up in some of these partnerships? Or should we think about expense growth as a run rate?

我會在費用方面開始有點無聊。所有非公認會計準則費用、技術、銷售和營銷的連續增長都相當大。我只是想了解一下，這是否與其中一些合作夥伴關係的提升有關？還是我們應該將費用增長視為運行速度？

And obviously, I know you have the operating income guidance out there for the near term, but just thinking about expense growth slow, and maybe giving a characteristic as to mix, expense growth would be great as well.

顯然，我知道你有近期的營業收入指導，但只要考慮到費用增長緩慢，並且可能給出一個混合特徵，費用增長也會很好。

Yes. Characteristic is mostly human capital, combined with marketing investments on the non-GAAP side. On the GAAP side, there's also the impact associated with stock-based compensation, the D&A and the other noncash items.

是的。特點主要是人力資本，加上非公認會計準則方面的營銷投資。在 GAAP 方面，還有與基於股票的薪酬、D&A 和其他非現金項目相關的影響。

I think we will stand by our long-term guidance that we gave in September around the profitability of the business being a function of the growth rate. So while we're growing like this, we are going to keep investing in that human capital to build great products and delight consumers. And when and if that growth rate ever starts to slow down, you'll see us grow expenses much slower and begin to deliver positive adjusted operating income.

我認為我們將堅持我們在 9 月份給出的長期指導，即業務盈利能力是增長率的函數。因此，在我們這樣發展的同時，我們將繼續投資於人力資本，以打造出色的產品並取悅消費者。而且，當增長率開始放緩時，您會看到我們的支出增長速度要慢得多，並開始提供積極的調整後營業收入。

I think of the profitability or bottom line measures that we really manage to the adjusted operating income number is what we intend to hit. It's where we have the guidance out for you for this period, and that's the number that, we think, will become scaling up and down as growth rates change.

我認為我們真正管理調整後營業收入數字的盈利能力或底線衡量標準是我們打算達到的目標。這是我們在此期間為您提供指導的地方，我們認為，隨著增長率的變化，這個數字將逐漸擴大和縮小。

Okay. And I guess another boring question, Michael, is the -- just the health of the debt markets, I know you continue to use securitization both on and off balance sheet. It looks like you sold some more whole loans this quarter. Balance sheet growth actually came in a little bit below our estimates. Just is it still as healthy as it was given your increasing traction among fixed income investors? Or has there been a bit of pullback given the macro conditions?

好的。邁克爾，我想另一個無聊的問題是——只是債務市場的健康，我知道你繼續在資產負債表內外使用證券化。看起來你本季度賣出了更多的整筆貸款。資產負債表的增長實際上略低於我們的預期。它是否仍然像在固定收益投資者中越來越受歡迎一樣健康？還是在宏觀條件下出現了一些回調？

No, I think we still continue to have very well-received deals in the market, both single counterparty deals and our forward flow relationships. As I mentioned in the script, we had a great deal of capacity by adding new partners and upsizing existing ones. And we still continue to receive a lot of demand for the assets. And our securitization activity has also been very successful.

不，我認為我們仍然繼續在市場上進行非常受歡迎的交易，無論是單一交易對手交易還是我們的前向流動關係。正如我在腳本中提到的，通過增加新的合作夥伴和升級現有合作夥伴，我們擁有了很大的能力。而且我們仍然繼續收到對資產的大量需求。我們的證券化活動也非常成功。

And you're going to see us continue to be very, very active there in both of those two markets and levers to continue to grow our business and deliver, we think, again, excellent capital efficiency.

而且您將看到我們在這兩個市場中繼續非常非常活躍，並利用槓桿繼續發展我們的業務並再次提供出色的資本效率。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. This also concludes our call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。這也結束了我們的通話。感謝您的參與。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並度過美好的一天。