Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Affirm Holdings' Fiscal Year 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website for a reasonable period of time after the call.

下午好，女士們，先生們。謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Affirm Holdings 的 2022 財年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音，電話會議的重播將在電話會議結束後的一段合理時間內在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Rob O'Hare, Senior Vice President of Finance, to begin. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給財務高級副總裁 Rob O'Hare，開始。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, operator. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone listening that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our Investor Relations website. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and the company does not assume any obligation or intend to update them, except as required by law.

謝謝，接線員。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到眾多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性，這些文件可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述大不相同。這些前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表，公司不承擔任何義務或打算更新它們，除非法律要求。

In addition, today's call may include non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for GAAP financial measures. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings press release, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

此外，今天的電話會議可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施應被視為對公認會計原則財務措施的補充而非替代。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Hosting today's call are Max Levchin, Affirm's Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Linford, Affirm's Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Max to begin.

主持今天的電話會議的是 Affirm 的創始人兼首席執行官 Max Levchin；和 Affirm 的首席財務官 Michael Linford。有了這個，我想把電話轉給 Max 開始。

Thank you for joining us on this call. The fourth quarter capped off an exceptionally strong fiscal '22 for Affirm. We have once again posted a very healthy set of numbers, beating our own financial targets. We executed well throughout the quarter, meeting U.S. consumer spend where it was. With COVID restrictions nearly gone, getting out of the house and out of town became a huge draw. While homewares and fashion experienced something of a retreat to more normal levels of growth, we were able to help our long-time partners and online travel agencies have a banner quarter, posting triple-digit year-on-year growth in some cases. We had anticipated this shift a little while ago and recently announced some timely new partnerships in the space like Agoda and SeatGeek.

感謝您加入我們的電話會議。第四季度結束了 Affirm 異常強勁的 22 財年。我們再次發布了一組非常健康的數字，超過了我們自己的財務目標。我們整個季度的表現都很好，滿足了美國消費者的支出需求。隨著 COVID 限制幾乎消失，走出家門和出城成為一個巨大的吸引力。雖然家居用品和時裝業經歷了某種程度的回落至更正常的增長水平，但我們能夠幫助我們的長期合作夥伴和在線旅行社擁有一個標誌性的季度，在某些情況下實現了三位數的同比增長。我們不久前就預料到了這種轉變，最近宣布了一些及時的新合作夥伴關係，例如 Agoda 和 SeatGeek。

Despite what you may have heard elsewhere, people are still buying things online, a lot of them. Last month featured our very first Prime Day, which was as much a test of our product as it was of our systems and scalability. And we were quite pleased with the results. Running up to and during the event, we introduced 0 APR programs on numerous SKUs. We also expanded our partnership with WooCommerce, which includes extending our reach to support their merchants in Canada. More recently, Affirm became WooCommerce's preferred pay-over-time partner, replacing a provider that specialized in the 6-week loan variety, underscoring merchant demand for complete solutions. And we significantly broadened our relationship with Stripe, unlocking streamlined distribution to more merchants and more consumers.

儘管您可能在其他地方聽說過，但人們仍在網上購物，其中很多。上個月推出了我們的第一個 Prime 會員日，這既是對我們產品的測試，也是對我們的系統和可擴展性的測試。我們對結果非常滿意。在活動之前和活動期間，我們在眾多 SKU 上推出了 0 APR 計劃。我們還擴大了與 WooCommerce 的合作夥伴關係，其中包括擴大我們的影響力以支持他們在加拿大的商家。最近，Affirm 成為 WooCommerce 的首選分期付款合作夥伴，取代了專門從事 6 週貸款品種的供應商，突顯了商家對完整解決方案的需求。我們顯著擴大了與 Stripe 的關係，為更多商家和更多消費者提供了流線型的分銷渠道。

We often talk about Affirm as a 2-sided network of consumers and merchants. The less obvious but all important third side is our capital partners. Maintaining a diverse set of funding sources is critical in this economic environment. And from our earliest days, we knew there was no winging it with capital markets. Today, we are proud to call some of the most sophisticated investors in the world our long-term partners. Thanks to our excellent capital team, we added just over $1.6 billion of net new committed capital. Approximately 70% of this capacity came from existing and new warehouse and forward-flow agreements, including a new $0.5 billion multiyear forward-flow commitment. In addition, our capital team executed 2 new asset-backed securitizations during this quarter.

我們經常將 Affirm 視為消費者和商家的雙向網絡。不太明顯但最重要的第三方是我們的資本合作夥伴。在這種經濟環境下，維持多樣化的資金來源至關重要。從我們最早的時候起，我們就知道資本市場是不可能的。今天，我們很自豪地將世界上一些最成熟的投資者稱為我們的長期合作夥伴。由於我們優秀的資本團隊，我們增加了超過 16 億美元的淨新承諾資本。大約 70% 的產能來自現有和新的倉庫和遠期流動協議，包括一項新的 5 億美元的多年期遠期流動承諾。此外，我們的資本團隊在本季度執行了 2 次新的資產支持證券化。

As proud as we are of our results this year and quarter, we know that many people are thinking about how the economic picture may unfold, and so are we. The economy is more than likely in the beginning stages of a downturn. It's too early to tell how deep it will be and how long it will last. So how do we continue building the strongest Affirm amidst uncertainty?

儘管我們對今年和本季度的業績感到自豪，但我們知道許多人正在考慮經濟形勢將如何發展，我們也是。經濟很可能處於低迷的開始階段。現在說它會有多深和持續多久還為時過早。那麼，我們如何在不確定性中繼續構建最強大的 Affirm 呢？

In a sentence, we are going to be cautious in our management of risk while investing aggressively in the expansion of our total addressable market. The former means our credit posture will remain conservative until we have a clearer view of the real economy. The latter is that we expect significant growth from new partnerships, new products and new geographies. In the language of the 1990s Internet, we're widening the top of our funnel while keeping a watchful eye on its bottom.

一句話，我們將在風險管理方面保持謹慎，同時積極投資於擴大我們的總目標市場。前者意味著在我們對實體經濟有更清晰的認識之前，我們的信貸狀況將保持保守。後者是我們預計新的合作夥伴關係、新產品和新的地域會帶來顯著增長。用 1990 年代互聯網的語言來說，我們正在擴大我們漏斗的頂部，同時密切關注它的底部。

Let me spend some time on both of these topics. As we have said numerous times in the past, credit performance is a nonnegotiable guardrail for Affirm. This is true because we see guarding our consumers' financial health as a part of our mission and because we remain obsessively focused on delivering exceptional results to our capital partners. We have both the underwriting technology and the control systems to deliver on this goal.

讓我花一些時間討論這兩個主題。正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，信用表現是 Affirm 不可協商的護欄。這是真的，因為我們將保護消費者的財務健康視為我們使命的一部分，並且因為我們仍然痴迷於為我們的資本合作夥伴提供卓越的成果。我們擁有實現這一目標的承保技術和控制系統。

We covered this in our May earnings call, but for a quick refresher, relatively short terms and individual loan approvals give us enormous flexibility when it comes to managing our back and front books, respectively. Being able to request a transaction-specific downpayment or additional income information and offer risk-appropriate term selection are just some of the powerful tools we have built over the years.

我們在 5 月份的財報電話會議中討論了這一點，但為了快速復習，相對較短的期限和個人貸款批准分別為我們管理背賬和麵賬提供了巨大的靈活性。能夠請求特定交易的首付或額外收入信息並提供風險適當的期限選擇只是我們多年來構建的一些強大工具。

This part probably does not need to be said, but just because there still seems to be some confusion, unlike the folks in the marketplace lending businesses, we are not dealing with the decaying performance of loans made years ago in pursuit of growth at all costs. Roughly half of our outstanding loan book is expected to pay down within 4 months or so and about 80% within 8 months.

這部分可能不需要說，但只是因為似乎仍然存在一些混亂，與市場借貸業務中的人們不同，我們不是在處理多年前不惜一切代價追求增長的貸款業績下滑.我們大約一半的未償貸款賬簿預計將在 4 個月左右內償還，約 80% 將在 8 個月內償還。

Our mission and our business model compel us to keep our consumers' long-term financial interest in mind alongside our partners and our own. But while we expect to have a conservative mindset with respect to credit during this period, we intend to use our advantaged position to grow and to continue taking market share by expanding our total addressable market aggressively. Here are just some of the growth initiatives I'm excited about.

我們的使命和我們的商業模式迫使我們與我們的合作夥伴和我們自己的合作夥伴一起牢記消費者的長期經濟利益。但是，雖然我們希望在此期間對信貸持有保守的心態，但我們打算利用我們的優勢地位來增長，並通過積極擴大我們的總潛在市場來繼續佔據市場份額。以下是一些令我興奮的增長計劃。

Inclusive credit. We have worked relentlessly over the last several years to evolve our approach to identifying and underwriting creditworthy applicants left outside the traditional credit reporting infrastructure. By some estimates, this is almost 45 million Americans. And we are excited to begin deploying some of these features in time for the upcoming holiday season.

包容性信貸。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在不懈地努力改進我們的方法，以識別和承保傳統信用報告基礎設施之外的信譽良好的申請人。據估計，這幾乎是 4500 萬美國人。我們很高興能夠在即將到來的假期開始及時部署其中的一些功能。

Scaling brand-sponsored promotions. We continue to leverage unique features of the Affirm network, most importantly, SKU awareness. Through our brand-sponsored promotions product, manufacturers have the ability to sponsor low and 0 APR deals at specific retailers on an item-by-item basis. Taking this concept a step further, we are delivering a full self-service console to participating brands and manufacturers to enable them to deploy promotions on the Affirm network seamlessly.

擴大品牌贊助的促銷活動。我們繼續利用 Affirm 網絡的獨特功能，最重要的是 SKU 意識。通過我們的品牌贊助促銷產品，製造商可以在特定零售商處逐件贊助低價和 0 APR 交易。更進一步，我們將向參與的品牌和製造商提供完整的自助服務控制台，使他們能夠在 Affirm 網絡上無縫部署促銷活動。

International expansion. PayBright, now known as Affirm Canada, continues to deliver very good results. And I'm pleased to announce that this past quarter, I asked Wayne Pommen, formerly the CEO of PayBright, to step up to lead all of our international efforts. Under his leadership, we are investing in the United Kingdom market this fiscal year and plan to continue from there.

國際擴張。 PayBright，現在被稱為 Affirm Canada，繼續提供非常好的結果。我很高興地宣布，在上個季度，我要求 PayBright 前首席執行官韋恩·波門 (Wayne Pommen) 加強領導我們所有的國際工作。在他的領導下，我們將在本財年投資英國市場，併計劃從那裡繼續。

Debit+. We have spent significant time fine-tuning Debit+ this quarter, focusing on the usability and profitability of the card. The transactions per active consumer are at a healthy 2.7x per week, and the online/offline usage breakdown is split nearly evenly. It's still quite early, so as usual, a warning about reading too deeply into the fine grain metrics. That said, GMV per active Debit+ consumer is over 40% higher than a non-Debit+ one. And after the first 2 weeks from consumer onboarding, we see near-perfect cohort retention. As you will hear in a second, we're still adding significant features to Debit+, and its at-scale contribution to our top and bottom lines is difficult to forecast. As a result, we have excluded all Debit+-related metrics from our forecast today. We are excited by what we see in the usage so far and are committed to making Debit+ a massive long-term success, expanding our reach, frequency and profitability.

借記+。本季度我們花費了大量時間對 Debit+ 進行微調，重點關注卡片的可用性和盈利能力。每個活躍消費者的交易量是每周健康的 2.7 倍，在線/離線使用細分幾乎平均分配。現在還為時過早，所以像往常一樣，警告不要對細粒度指標進行深入解讀。也就是說，每位活躍借記卡+消費者的 GMV 比非借記卡+消費者高出 40% 以上。在消費者入職後的前 2 週後，我們看到近乎完美的群組留存率。正如您稍後會聽到的那樣，我們仍在為 Debit+ 添加重要功能，它對我們的收入和利潤的大規模貢獻難以預測。因此，我們今天的預測中排除了所有與 Debit+ 相關的指標。我們對迄今為止的使用情況感到興奮，並致力於使 Debit+ 取得巨大的長期成功，擴大我們的覆蓋範圍、頻率和盈利能力。

Rewards. One of the key preference driving features of modern consumer payments is rewards. It is the most common theoretical objection to BNPL versus credit cards. We can stop the debate. Our plan is to launch Affirm Rewards in beta this September with a number of participating retailers. As we roll the program out, Affirm consumers will begin to earn points on eligible point-of-sale, Affirm Anywhere and Debit+ transactions, with redemptions in the Affirm app. We're very excited about the possibilities here and expect to scale the program in time for the holidays.

獎勵。現代消費者支付的主要偏好驅動特徵之一是獎勵。這是BNPL與信用卡最常見的理論反對意見。我們可以停止辯論。我們的計劃是在今年 9 月與一些參與的零售商一起推出 Affirm Rewards 測試版。隨著我們推出該計劃，Affirm 消費者將開始在符合條件的銷售點、Affirm Anywhere 和 Debit+ 交易中賺取積分，並在 Affirm 應用程序中進行兌換。我們對這裡的可能性感到非常興奮，並希望在假期前及時擴展該計劃。

I'll stop here, but there are numerous other initiatives we're plowing away on while keeping credit performance top of mind. Last year, we hosted an event where we discussed our product road map in detail and plan to do one again late this year. We'll give you a much more detailed overview of what's getting built then.

我會在這裡停下來，但我們正在努力實施許多其他舉措，同時將信貸業績放在首位。去年，我們舉辦了一次活動，詳細討論了我們的產品路線圖，併計劃在今年晚些時候再做一次。我們將為您提供更詳細的概述，了解當時正在構建的內容。

Before I hand it off to Michael, one more comment on growth. For quite some time, we've expected consolidation to begin in this space. Our exciting mission, market leadership and a strong cash position make Affirm an exit of choice for teams with great talent now that the prices and the parlance of our times have corrected a bit. We have no specific M&A targets to report today but are keeping a very keen eye on the market.

在我把它交給邁克爾之前，再談一次關於增長的評論。很長一段時間以來，我們一直期望在這個領域開始整合。我們激動人心的使命、市場領導地位和強大的現金狀況使 Affirm 成為具有優秀人才的團隊的首選退出，因為我們時代的價格和說法已經有所修正。我們今天沒有具體的併購目標要報告，但我們正密切關注市場。

We continue to see strong demand for the simple idea of paying overtime and, in particular, for our take on it, supporting many transaction types and sizes and keeping away from gimmicks and hidden fees. Our strategy remains exactly the same as before: to continue building our network, more partners, more active consumers and more transaction volume.

我們繼續看到對支付加班費這一簡單想法的強烈需求，特別是我們對此的看法，支持許多交易類型和規模，並遠離噱頭和隱藏費用。我們的戰略與以前完全一樣：繼續建立我們的網絡、更多的合作夥伴、更活躍的消費者和更多的交易量。

As always, I want to thank the ever-growing worldwide band of Affirmers united by our shared sense of mission and to send a special shout-out to the veterans, still going strong through the shared ups and downs of our first decade together. It's amazing to contemplate that just a few years ago, we imagined that supporting $50 million of transactional volume would be quite the achievement, even as we now plan our march to $50 billion of GMV just a few years from now. And now on to Michael for the numbers.

與往常一樣，我要感謝因我們共同的使命感而團結起來的不斷壯大的全球肯定者樂隊，並向退伍軍人發出特別的吶喊，他們仍然堅強地度過了我們第一個十年共同的起起落落。令人驚奇的是，就在幾年前，我們認為支持 5000 萬美元的交易量將是一項相當大的成就，即使我們現在計劃在幾年後實現 500 億美元的 GMV。現在請邁克爾詢問數字。

Thanks, Max, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to start by echoing Max and acknowledging all Affirmers for their contributions and dedication to our mission. We are proud of the progress we made this fiscal year as we introduced nearly 7 million more people to honest finance, expanded and diversified our merchant base to cover more than 60% of U.S. e-commerce and delivered very strong unit economics at 4.3% revenue less transaction costs as a percentage of the GMV, well above our long-term range of 3% to 4%.

謝謝，Max，大家下午好。我想首先呼應 Max，並感謝所有肯定者對我們使命的貢獻和奉獻。我們為本財年取得的進展感到自豪，因為我們為誠實金融服務的人數增加了近 700 萬人，擴大和多元化了我們的商家基礎，覆蓋了美國 60% 以上的電子商務，並以 4.3% 的收入實現了非常強勁的單位經濟效益交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比更低，遠高於我們 3% 至 4% 的長期範圍。

With our team's solid execution, we exceeded all of our guidance for fiscal '22 despite increasingly volatile market conditions in the second half of the fiscal year. I'll cover 3 topics before we open the line for questions: first, a more detailed review of our fourth quarter results; second, an update on what we are seeing in terms of consumer credit performance; and third, some perspectives on what we expect and how we plan to operate in fiscal '23 given the macro environment, the growth opportunities ahead of us and the profitability targets we plan to achieve.

憑藉我們團隊的穩健執行，儘管本財年下半年的市場狀況日益動盪，我們仍超出了 22 財年的所有指導。在我們開始提問之前，我將介紹 3 個主題：首先，更詳細地回顧我們的第四季度業績；第二，我們在消費者信貸表現方面看到的最新情況；第三，鑑於宏觀環境、我們面前的增長機會和我們計劃實現的盈利目標，我們對 23 財年的預期和計劃如何運營的一些看法。

Now to the quarter. Unless stated otherwise, all comparisons refer to our fourth quarter of fiscal '22 versus Q4 of fiscal '21. Our Q4 earnings supplement is also posted on our IR website.

現在到季度。除非另有說明，否則所有比較均指我們的 22 財年第四季度與 21 財年第四季度。我們的第四季度收益補充也發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。

We continue to scale our network. Active consumers increased 96% year-over-year to 14 million, and active merchants increased to nearly 235,000. This helped drive 139% growth in transactions, 85% of which came from repeat consumers. As you have heard us say before, driving greater frequency is a key priority as it not only fuels our flywheel but helps us drive efficiencies. Annual transactions per user increased for the fourth consecutive quarter to 3 transactions per year, which was up 31% year-over-year.

我們繼續擴展我們的網絡。活躍消費者同比增長 96% 至 1400 萬，活躍商家增加至近 235,000 家。這有助於推動交易量增長 139%，其中 85% 來自回頭客。正如您之前聽到我們所說，提高頻率是一個關鍵優先事項，因為它不僅為我們的飛輪提供燃料，而且幫助我們提高效率。每位用戶的年度交易量連續第四個季度增長至每年 3 筆交易，同比增長 31%。

We grew GMV 77% and 89% excluding Peloton. Our strong traction across our enterprise partnerships continued throughout the quarter, with our 3 largest partners making up roughly 30% of our total Q4 volume. Our volume with our 2 largest partners grew 27% sequentially from Q3 and are still in the beginning stages of their integration.

我們的 GMV 增長了 77% 和 89%，不包括 Peloton。我們對企業合作夥伴關係的強大牽引力在整個季度持續，我們的 3 個最大的合作夥伴約占我們第四季度總交易量的 30%。我們與兩個最大合作夥伴的交易量從第三季度開始環比增長了 27%，並且仍處於整合的初期階段。

On Slide 9 of the supplement, you can see just how diversified our network is across industries. This represents a key area of strength and resilience for Affirm, particularly as consumers shift spending patterns like they did in Q4. That said, given how underpenetrated we are today, our growth is not limited by the growth of our merchants or even broadly to e-commerce. For example, e-commerce penetration retreated to its pre-COVID trend line this quarter, and our growth still outpaced the broader market by an order of magnitude.

在附錄的幻燈片 9 中，您可以看到我們的網絡在各個行業中的多元化程度。這代表了 Affirm 實力和韌性的關鍵領域，尤其是在消費者像第四季度那樣轉變消費模式的情況下。也就是說，鑑於我們今天的滲透率很低，我們的增長不受商家增長的限制，甚至不受電子商務的限制。例如，本季度電子商務滲透率回落至疫情前的趨勢線，我們的增長仍超過大盤一個數量級。

Travel and ticketing increased to $545 million, up 87% from last year and a staggering 443% compared to pre-pandemic levels of Q4 in 2019, highlighting the success of our investments in partnerships in the category. American Airlines, Expedia, Priceline and Vrbo were all top 10 merchants for Affirm this quarter. General merchandise grew to over $881 million, 477% above last year, driven by our deepening relationships with Amazon, Walmart, Target, also top 10 merchants for Affirm in fiscal Q4. PayBright more than doubled, posting year-over-year GMV growth of 116%. PayBright bright continues to hold a market leadership position in Canada that includes merchant relationships with Apple, Samsung and Hudson's Bay Company.

旅行和票務增加到 5.45 億美元，比去年增長 87%，與 2019 年第四季度大流行前的水平相比，增長了驚人的 443%，突顯了我們在該類別合作夥伴關係方面的成功投資。美國航空、Expedia、Priceline 和 Vrbo 都是本季度 Affirm 的前 10 名商戶。在我們與亞馬遜、沃爾瑪、Target 以及第四財季 Affirm 排名前 10 位的商家的關係加深的推動下，日用品增長到超過 8.81 億美元，比去年增長 477%。 PayBright 增長了一倍多，GMV 同比增長 116%。 PayBright Bright 繼續在加拿大保持市場領先地位，包括與蘋果、三星和哈德遜灣公司的商戶關係。

Turning to the financials. Total net revenue grew 39% to $364.1 million, above our outlook of $345 million to $355 million and grew 49% excluding Peloton. Network revenue grew 39% and interest income increased 33%. Gain on sale increased 30%. Revenue as a percentage of GMV contracted by 226 basis points to 8.3%, driven by a mix shift away from longer-duration 0% loans and towards short-term Split Pay loans. Split Pay GMV grew over 193% year-on-year and accounted for roughly 23% of GMV in the fourth quarter compared to 14% last year, as you can see on Slide 8 of our earnings supplement.

轉向財務。總淨收入增長 39% 至 3.641 億美元，高於我們預期的 3.45 億美元至 3.55 億美元，不包括 Peloton 增長 49%。網絡收入增長 39%，利息收入增長 33%。銷售收益增加了 30%。收入佔 GMV 的百分比下降 226 個基點至 8.3%，這是由於從長期 0% 貸款向短期分期付款貸款的混合轉變。如您在我們收益補充的幻燈片 8 中所見，Split Pay GMV 同比增長超過 193%，佔第四季度 GMV 的約 23%，而去年為 14%。

Split Pay has a different economic profile compared to our core 0% APR program, and the composition of these 2 products effectively reversed year-over-year as we have expanded into higher-frequency transactions. This resulted in a year-over-year decline in revenue take rates, which we express as a percentage of GMV. However, you can see on Slide 14 that take rates within each of our product offerings continue to remain relatively stable.

與我們的核心 0% APR 計劃相比，Split Pay 具有不同的經濟狀況，隨著我們擴展到更高頻率的交易，這兩種產品的構成同比有效地逆轉。這導致收入獲取率同比下降，我們將其表示為 GMV 的百分比。但是，您可以在幻燈片 14 上看到，我們每種產品的費率繼續保持相對穩定。

Our strong top line growth, combined with the leverage we achieved on nonprovision transaction costs, drove a 25% increase in revenue less transaction costs to $184.3 million or 4.2% of GMV. Total transaction costs of $179.8 million grew 58% year-over-year. Excluding provision expense, transaction costs grew 21% compared to revenue growth of 39%. Loss on loan purchase commitments declined 21%, primarily driven by the mix shift I just mentioned. As a reminder, loss on loan purchase commitment mainly occurs with the core long-term 0% APR loans.

我們強勁的收入增長，加上我們在非撥備交易成本方面實現的槓桿作用，推動收入減去交易成本後增長 25%，達到 1.843 億美元或 GMV 的 4.2%。總交易成本為 1.798 億美元，同比增長 58%。剔除撥備費用，交易成本增長 21%，而收入增長 39%。貸款購買承諾的損失下降了 21%，主要是由於我剛才提到的組合轉變。提醒一下，貸款購買承諾的損失主要發生在核心長期 0% APR 貸款中。

Our funding costs increased 24% year-over-year, in line with the 24% growth in loans held for investment despite the higher rate environment and significantly below the 53% growth in our total platform portfolio. On our February call, we estimated that a 100 basis point rate increase beyond the forward curve at the time would result in an approximate 10 to 20 basis point impact to RLTC as a percentage of GMV for the second half of fiscal '22 based on our mix at the time.

儘管利率環境較高，但我們的融資成本同比增長 24%，這與持有用於投資的貸款增長 24% 一致，並且遠低於我們整個平台組合 53% 的增長。在我們 2 月份的電話會議上，我們估計，當時的遠期曲線加息 100 個基點將對 RLTC 產生大約 10 到 20 個基點的影響，佔 22 財年下半年 GMV 的百分比。當時混合。

Since February, peak rate expectations within the forward curve increased by more than 150 basis points. Despite this, we delivered 4.4% RLTC as a percentage of GMV for the second half of fiscal '22, well above our implied 3.9% in our outlook at the time. We have the ability to manage the short-term impacts in the forward curve with the tools inherent in our product, which Max shared moments ago, and staggered renewal periods on our funding facilities. We continue to estimate that a 100 basis point rate increase beyond the current forward curve may translate to an approximate 10 to 20 basis point impact to RLTC as a percentage of GMV in fiscal '23.

自 2 月以來，遠期曲線內的峰值利率預期增加了 150 多個基點。儘管如此，我們在 22 財年下半年交付的 RLTC 佔 GMV 的百分比為 4.4%，遠高於我們當時預期的 3.9%。我們有能力使用 Max 之前分享的產品中固有的工具來管理遠期曲線的短期影響，並在我們的融資設施上錯開更新期。我們繼續估計，在當前的遠期曲線之上加息 100 個基點可能會對 RLTC 產生大約 10 到 20 個基點的影響，佔 23 財年 GMV 的百分比。

In comparison to a more normalized fiscal third quarter of '22, provision for credit losses grew just 10%, and provision expense as a percentage of GMV declined by 4 basis points sequentially to 1.65%. Our allowance for losses as a percentage of loans held for investment declined for the third consecutive quarter to 6.2% as we continued to drive strong credit performance. Excluding transaction costs, non-GAAP operating expense grew 60% to $215.2 million or 59% of total revenue. On a non-GAAP basis, sales and marketing expense declined 1% year-over-year.

與更正常化的 22 財年第三季度相比，信貸損失準備金僅增長 10%，準備金費用佔 GMV 的百分比環比下降 4 個基點至 1.65%。由於我們繼續推動強勁的信貸表現，我們的損失準備金佔投資貸款的百分比連續第三個季度下降至 6.2%。不計交易成本，非 GAAP 運營費用增長 60% 至 2.152 億美元，佔總收入的 59%。按非公認會計原則計算，銷售和營銷費用同比下降 1%。

Adjusted operating loss was $29.3 million in the quarter or 8% of revenue, which was significantly better than our outlook for adjusted operating loss of 15% to 11% in the period, driven by better-than-expected RLTC and lower-than-expected operating expenses. GAAP total operating expenses, excluding transaction costs, grew by 76% to $461.6 million, driven by year-over-year growth in enterprise warrant and share-based expense of $102.7 million. GAAP operating loss was $277.2 million, which compares to a loss of $114.3 million in the prior year period.

本季度調整後經營虧損為 2930 萬美元，佔收入的 8%，顯著好於我們對本季度調整後經營虧損 15% 至 11% 的預期，原因是 RLTC 好於預期且低於預期營業費用。 GAAP 總運營費用（不包括交易成本）增長 76% 至 4.616 億美元，這主要得益於企業認股權證和股票費用同比增長 1.027 億美元。 GAAP 經營虧損為 2.772 億美元，而去年同期虧損 1.143 億美元。

Now to move on to my second topic, consumer credit performance. We believe we managed this to a great outcome despite the environment. As we have shared in the past, we are, first and foremost, focused on managing risk. We constantly monitor the credit performance of our portfolio as well as the broader environment. Given inflationary pressures, we began to see the signs of stress during the quarter within certain low credit segment consumers. This stress without mitigation would flow through to charge-offs.

現在轉到我的第二個主題，消費者信用表現。我們相信，儘管環境如此，我們還是取得了很好的成果。正如我們過去所分享的，我們首先專注於管理風險。我們不斷監控我們投資組合的信用表現以及更廣泛的環境。鑑於通脹壓力，我們開始在本季度看到某些低信貸消費者的壓力跡象。這種沒有緩解的壓力將流向沖銷。

However, the inherent advantages of our underwriting every application at the transaction level and the high turnover nature of our book provides natural agility. Accordingly, we ever so subtly turned our dials and gave up a couple of points of growth this past quarter through small optimizations, and we still grew GMV by 77%. When we say we have the ability to manage credit outcomes, this is exactly what we mean. Our delinquency levels are healthy for our business, and we have demonstrated our ability to grow while controlling them.

然而，我們在交易層面為每個申請承保的固有優勢以及我們賬簿的高周轉性質提供了自然的敏捷性。因此，我們通過小幅優化在上個季度巧妙地調整了我們的錶盤並放棄了幾個增長點，我們仍然將 GMV 增長了 77%。當我們說我們有能力管理信貸結果時，這正是我們的意思。我們的拖欠水平對我們的業務來說是健康的，我們已經證明了我們在控制它們的同時增長的能力。

We've said it before and we'll say it again. We are different from our competitors who had to dramatically slow their growth rates because this is the only lever they have for managing risk. We are confident that these differences will only become more apparent over time.

我們以前說過，我們會再說一遍。我們與不得不大幅放慢增長速度的競爭對手不同，因為這是他們管理風險的唯一手段。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些差異只會變得更加明顯。

With that, let me turn now to our outlook for fiscal '23. When we reported our fiscal '21 results a year ago, we had just posted $8.3 billion in GMV. We closed fiscal '22 well ahead of our plan at nearly $15.5 billion in GMV, representing 87% growth in GMV and 114% excluding Peloton. Our team's outperformance this year means we are ahead of where we expected to be in terms of market share. We believe that we are well positioned to continue growing our network while expanding our product offerings and geographic reach.

有了這個，現在讓我談談我們對 23 財年的展望。一年前我們公佈 21 財年的業績時，我們剛剛公佈了 83 億美元的 GMV。我們提前完成了 22 財年的計劃，GMV 接近 155 億美元，GMV 增長 87%，不包括 Peloton 增長 114%。我們團隊今年的出色表現意味著我們在市場份額方面領先於我們預期的水平。我們相信我們有能力繼續發展我們的網絡，同時擴大我們的產品供應和地理範圍。

That said, we think it is important to acknowledge the current macroeconomic backdrop as we give our initial guidance for fiscal '23 and attempt to estimate these factors through June of next year. While we cannot precisely predict the macroeconomic conditions, our outlook assumes the current forward interest rate curve. It also assumes that the current macroeconomic conditions do not fundamentally change for the better with early signs of consumer stress persisting through the fiscal year.

話雖如此，我們認為重要的是要承認當前的宏觀經濟背景，因為我們給出了 23 財年的初步指導，並試圖在明年 6 月之前估計這些因素。雖然我們無法準確預測宏觀經濟狀況，但我們的展望假設當前的遠期利率曲線。它還假設當前的宏觀經濟狀況不會從根本上改善，消費者壓力的早期跡象會持續到整個財政年度。

If we do see signs of significantly more stress or if rates were to increase much more than expected, we expect to utilize the various levers at our disposal to protect our unit economics. Among others, these include merchant and consumer pricing, duration shortening, approval rate changes and downpayment rates.

如果我們確實看到壓力顯著增加的跡象，或者利率的增長幅度超過預期，我們希望利用我們可以使用的各種槓桿來保護我們的單位經濟。其中包括商家和消費者定價、期限縮短、批准率變化和首付率。

Our outlook is also informed by the following: first, we made significant progress within our Shopify and Amazon programs, which reached general availability in June and November of '21, respectively. As we enter the second year of availability for each of these programs, we expect continued growth in fiscal '23, albeit from a much bigger base.

我們的展望還受到以下因素的影響：首先，我們在 Shopify 和 Amazon 計劃中取得了重大進展，它們分別於 21 年 6 月和 11 月全面上市。隨著我們進入每個這些計劃的第二年，我們預計 23 財年將繼續增長，儘管基數更大。

Similar to fiscal '22, we expect holiday-driven seasonal GMV strength in the second quarter of fiscal '23. However, we are forecasting the second quarter to be the low point for the year-over-year GMV growth given the nearly 370% growth in general merchandise GMV that we are comping against. Further, given timings in the quarter and the product mix, we expect to see a seasonal decline in both revenue and revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV in the period due to how revenue is earned on these loans, similar to last year.

與 22 財年類似，我們預計 23 財年第二季度假日驅動的季節性 GMV 將走強。然而，鑑於我們正在與之競爭的一般商品 GMV 增長近 370%，我們預計第二季度將成為 GMV 同比增長的低點。此外，鑑於本季度的時間安排和產品組合，我們預計收入和收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比都會出現季節性下降，原因是這些貸款的收入方式與去年相似。

While we continue to make progress with Debit+, we are still in the early innings. As such, our outlook for fiscal year '23 does not include any material GMV or revenue impact from this product. While the funding markets remain volatile, we enjoy a strong position without any current concerns on funding our growth. We would expect to continue to execute across all of our funding strategies and keep equity capital required below 5% of total platform portfolio. At that level, this would reflect marginally less ABS execution proportionately this year.

雖然我們繼續在 Debit+ 方面取得進展，但我們仍處於早期階段。因此，我們對 23 財年的展望不包括該產品對 GMV 或收入的任何重大影響。雖然融資市場仍然動盪，但我們享有強勢地位，目前對為我們的增長提供資金沒有任何擔憂。我們預計將繼續執行我們所有的融資策略，並將所需的股權資本保持在總平台投資組合的 5% 以下。在這個水平上，這將反映出今年 ABS 的執行比例略低。

With that context in mind, for our fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, we expect gross merchandise volume to increase between 32% and 42% from fiscal year '22 to between $20.5 billion to $22 billion. This would imply a 2-year compound annual growth rate of between 57% and 63% versus fiscal '21. Accordingly, we expect revenue of $1.625 billion to $1.725 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 20% to 28% and a 2-year compound annual growth rate of between 37% and 41%. The forecasted contraction in total revenue as a percentage of GMV in fiscal '23 is partially driven by our aforementioned interest rate expectations and the continued mix shift to expand into higher frequency purchases.

考慮到這種情況，在我們截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的財年中，我們預計商品總額將比 22 財年增長 32% 至 42% 至 205 億美元至 220 億美元之間。這意味著與 21 財年相比，兩年復合年增長率在 57% 至 63% 之間。因此，我們預計收入為 16.25 億美元至 17.25 億美元，同比增長 20% 至 28%，兩年復合年增長率在 37% 至 41% 之間。預計 23 財年總收入佔 GMV 的百分比將收縮，部分原因是我們上述的利率預期以及持續的組合轉變以擴大到更高頻率的購買。

Turning to expenses. We expect transaction costs of $865 million to $915 million, reflecting a modest year-over-year reduction in transaction costs as a percentage of GMV. This improvement is expected to be driven primarily with the loss on loan purchase commitment line. As a result, we expect revenue less transaction costs of $760 million to $810 million. Revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV is expected to be roughly 3.7%, in line with our long-term model of 3% to 4% of GMV.

轉向開支。我們預計交易成本為 8.65 億美元至 9.15 億美元，反映出交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比同比溫和下降。預計這種改善主要是由於貸款購買承諾線的損失。因此，我們預計收入減去交易成本後為 7.6 億美元至 8.1 億美元。收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的百分比預計約為 3.7%，符合我們 3% 至 4% 的 GMV 的長期模型。

Moving down the P&L. While we will be prudent with expenses to be reflective of the current environment, we will continue to invest in engineering and product talent to support the robust product road map that has been and will continue to be a key differentiator for Affirm. We expect our sales and marketing and G&A expense lines to grow on a dollar basis in the year. However, these lines should demonstrate operating leverage as a percentage of revenue when measured on an adjusted non-GAAP basis. Accordingly, we expect adjusted operating loss as a percentage of revenue of 6.5% to 4.5% for the full year.

向下移動損益表。雖然我們將謹慎地處理費用以反映當前環境，但我們將繼續投資於工程和產品人才，以支持強大的產品路線圖，該路線圖已經並將繼續成為 Affirm 的關鍵差異化因素。我們預計我們的銷售和營銷以及 G&A 費用項目將在今年以美元為基礎增長。然而，當根據調整後的非公認會計原則衡量時，這些線路應顯示經營槓桿佔收入的百分比。因此，我們預計全年調整後的經營虧損佔收入的百分比為 6.5% 至 4.5%。

As we shared in our May earnings call, we expect to achieve a sustained profitability run rate on an adjusted operating income basis by the end of this fiscal year. As we said previously, we do not expect to compromise our long-term growth opportunities as we progress towards sustained profitability. Finally, we expect weighted average shares of approximately 298 million for the year.

正如我們在 5 月份的財報電話會議中所分享的那樣，我們預計到本財年末在調整後的營業收入基礎上實現持續的盈利運行率。正如我們之前所說，隨著我們朝著持續盈利的方向發展，我們預計不會損害我們的長期增長機會。最後，我們預計今年的加權平均股數約為 2.98 億股。

For our first quarter ending September 30, 2022, we expect GMV to grow 55% to 62% to $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion. We expect that growth to drive total revenue of $345 million to $365 million. Our outlook for the first quarter also contemplates transaction costs of $176 million to $188 million; revenue less transaction cost of $169 million to $177 million; adjusted operating loss as a percentage of revenue of 12% to 10%; and weighted average shares outstanding of 292 million.

對於截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的第一季度，我們預計 GMV 將增長 55% 至 62% 至 42 億美元至 44 億美元。我們預計這一增長將推動總收入達到 3.45 億美元至 3.65 億美元。我們對第一季度的展望還考慮了 1.76 億美元至 1.88 億美元的交易成本；收入減去交易成本為 1.69 億美元至 1.77 億美元；調整後的營業虧損佔收入的百分比為 12% 至 10%；加權平均流通股數為 2.92 億股。

While the uncertain macro picture over the next 10 to 11 months as well as us lapping some staggering year-over-year comps are leading us to be prudent in the short term, we remain very bullish about our opportunities. We are confident in our ability to execute, and we continue to see strong underlying trends that position Affirm for further growth and success.

雖然未來 10 到 11 個月不確定的宏觀形勢以及我們經歷了一些驚人的同比增長導致我們在短期內保持謹慎，但我們仍然非常看好我們的機會。我們對我們的執行能力充滿信心，我們繼續看到強大的潛在趨勢，這些趨勢使 Affirm 進一步增長和成功。

With that, we'll open it up for questions. Operator?

有了這個，我們將打開它的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Ramsey El-Assal from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I wanted to first ask about the July and August delinquencies. Should we think about an ongoing increase as we move forward sort of a similar magnitude this year? Or can you adjust your credit box, as you kind of mentioned, to sort of engineer more of a plateau there? I guess an easier way to ask the question is, what provisions and losses are baked into the full year guide? Maybe that's the way I should have characterized it.

我想先問一下 7 月和 8 月的拖欠情況。我們是否應該考慮在我們今年向前推進類似規模的過程中持續增長？或者你可以調整你的信用箱，就像你提到的那樣，在那裡設計更多的平台？我想問這個問題的一個更簡單的方法是，全年指南中包含哪些規定和損失？也許這就是我應該描述它的方式。

Thanks for the question. And I'll start and Michael can help quantify it. So probably the most important headline is that we are in full control. You should start seeing what we mean by that relatively quickly. One good metric or sort of one anecdote to offer -- so we have been taking a fairly conservative posture, as you've probably heard on the call or in the prerecorded part of the call. We have been keeping an extremely careful eye on the credit performance. All the while, our approval rates have actually gone up.

謝謝你的問題。我會開始，邁克爾可以幫助量化它。所以可能最重要的標題是我們完全控制。您應該相對較快地開始了解我們所說的意思。提供一個好的指標或一個軼事——所以我們一直採取相當保守的姿態，正如你可能在電話會議或電話的預錄部分聽到的那樣。我們一直在密切關注信貸表現。一直以來，我們的批准率實際上都在上升。

So what we've been doing in the background -- and not a lot. It sounds like we've opened up significantly. I think the 3 points of incremental approvals have been added. What that means though is that we've been optimizing credit very, very actively. This implies things like tightening in durations, asking for a significantly more downpayment, in some cases, asking for incremental income information. So yes, I don't think you should expect us to increase our provision. In fact, we intend to, if anything, be quite conservative. I don't know, Michael, if you want to quantify it for us.

所以我們在後台一直在做的事情——而且不是很多。聽起來我們已經大大開放了。我認為增加了 3 點增量批准。這意味著我們一直在非常非常積極地優化信用。這意味著諸如收緊期限，要求更多的首付，在某些情況下，要求增加收入信息。所以是的，我認為你不應該期望我們增加我們的供應。事實上，如果有的話，我們打算相當保守。邁克爾，我不知道你是否想為我們量化它。

No. Just look, I think what you're seeing very recently in terms of the sequential build is what we consider to be a pretty normal seasonal pattern. That seasonal pattern should begin to abate and go down. As you know, there's 2 things to think about. There's the numerator and the denominator. The one thing to keep in mind is that, obviously, is the base that you divide it by, both in terms of the impact that we have on total term lengths as well as what we have just in terms of the actual change in the total portfolio.

不，請看，我認為你最近看到的順序構建是我們認為非常正常的季節性模式。這種季節性模式應該開始減弱並下降。如您所知，有兩件事需要考慮。有分子和分母。要記住的一件事是，很明顯，是您將其除以的基礎，無論是就我們對總期限長度的影響而言，還是就我們在總期限的實際變化而言文件夾。

We'll change the measure that we report publicly, but when we look at the business and think about state of credit, we feel very optimistic that we have it well in hand. And the ultimate proof is how that shows up in our confidence around our margins in the business, which we continue to believe are quite strong and on the higher end of our long-term range that we've given everybody.

我們將改變我們公開報告的衡量標準，但當我們審視業務並考慮信用狀況時，我們感到非常樂觀，我們掌握了它。最終的證據是，這如何體現在我們對業務利潤率的信心中，我們仍然認為這是相當強勁的，並且處於我們為每個人提供的長期範圍的高端。

Got it. Okay. One follow-up for me. Could you give us a progress report on the Amazon ramp? And maybe focusing particularly on Prime Day, how did that go for you? I think it's a new input into the model this year. Did the 0% loans gain traction? And could you see a scenario where those become a more permanent fixture at Amazon?

知道了。好的。我的一個後續行動。你能給我們一份關於亞馬遜坡道的進展報告嗎？也許特別關注Prime Day，這對你有什麼影響？我認為這是今年對模型的新投入。 0% 的貸款是否獲得了吸引力？你能看到那些成為亞馬遜更永久固定裝置的場景嗎？

So probably the most important thing to know about Amazon is that it's still very, very early relative to the potential of the -- just the sheer scale they have and the many different ways for us to work together. We were very pleased with our Prime Day performance, frankly, as much technically and ability to approve and ability to scale all the -- from underwriting to the web systems. All that went really, really well. And our partners have given us high marks on that front.

因此，關於亞馬遜最重要的事情可能是，相對於其潛力而言，它仍然非常非常早 - 只是他們擁有的龐大規模以及我們合作的許多不同方式。坦率地說，我們對 Prime Day 的表現非常滿意，在技術上、批准能力和擴展所有方面的能力——從承保到網絡系統。這一切都進行得非常非常好。我們的合作夥伴在這方面給了我們很高的評價。

We have a lot of work to do, you're right, that the 0% is always an extreme crowd-pleaser when it comes to consumer buying. And I think both of us in a partnership have noticed that it is, in fact, a very successful way of offering consumers a reason to buy now. And so we expect more of that. As it happens, we'll certainly report on it. But the current state of partnership is nothing but excellence.

我們有很多工作要做，你是對的，在消費者購買方面，0% 總是非常討人喜歡。而且我認為我們雙方都已經註意到，事實上，這是一種非常成功的方式，可以為消費者提供立即購買的理由。所以我們期待更多。碰巧，我們一定會報告它。但目前的伙伴關係狀態不過是卓越。

Our next question is coming from Dan Perlin from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Dan Perlin。

I wanted to just touch base on the transaction cost ramp. It looks like -- you gave us the first quarter and the full year. So it looks like it's going to pretty materially ramp as you go out into the back half of the year, especially with your commentary around some leverage on loss on loan purchase commitments, which totally makes sense. So I'm just trying to understand, I guess, a couple of the major drivers. You just mentioned that your provisioning didn't sound like it was going to be off the charts, although I suspect that has to be higher. And then your funding costs obviously have to be up based on yield curve. So maybe you could just help us walk through the cadence a little bit of that and maybe some of the line items that we need to make sure we're really focused on there.

我只想談談交易成本的上升。看起來 - 你給了我們第一季度和全年。因此，隨著您進入下半年，它看起來會大幅增加，特別是您對貸款購買承諾損失的一些槓桿作用的評論，這完全有道理。所以我只是想了解幾個主要驅動因素。您剛剛提到您的配置聽起來不會超出圖表，儘管我懷疑它必須更高。然後你的融資成本顯然必鬚根據收益率曲線上升。所以也許你可以幫助我們稍微了解一下節奏，也許我們需要確保我們真正專注於那裡的一些行項目。

Yes. I think one of maybe the most important things to think about is the seasonality that we would expect around both the revenue and transaction costs. Q2 is going to see, we think, a valley, both in terms of the growth rate of the business, the revenue take rates and the revenue less transaction cost. And that has a lot more to do with the timing and type of loans that we originated, much like it did last year. In the back half of the year, we would -- truly, the back half of the year, we would not expect any material changes with respect to the efficiency, except we actually would assume it improves on a margin basis from Q2 onward.

是的。我認為要考慮的最重要的事情之一可能是我們對收入和交易成本的預期季節性。我們認為，第二季度將出現一個谷底，無論是在業務增長率、收入獲取率和收入減去交易成本方面。這與我們發起貸款的時間和類型有很大關係，就像去年一樣。在今年下半年，我們將 - 實際上，在今年下半年，我們預計不會在效率方面發生任何重大變化，除非我們實際上假設它從第二季度開始會在利潤率的基礎上有所改善。

Okay. And then I mean you sound decidedly more conservative and maybe concerned about the macro and the consumer on this call relative to maybe previous calls, rightfully so. But how do we think about how big maybe that cohort is when you're talking about lower credit quality, seeing signs of stress? Is there any way you can size that for us or just give us some context about what that looks like inside of your overall portfolio?

好的。然後我的意思是，相對於之前的電話，你聽起來顯然更加保守，並且可能擔心這次電話中的宏觀和消費者，這是理所當然的。但是，當您談論較低的信用質量並看到壓力跡象時，我們如何考慮該群體可能有多大？有沒有什麼方法可以為我們確定大小，或者只是給我們一些關於你的整體投資組合中的內容的背景信息？

Yes. The answer that we've been giving folks up until this quarter is that we saw "no signs of stress," and that was something that was the first quarter we saw any signs. I think what you saw, though, in the quarter was all of our tools to manage that on full display. The reality is we solved the stress and we began to have to react to it. So I don't know that we're making a statement about things into the future beyond that.

是的。直到本季度我們一直給人們的答案是，我們看到“沒有壓力跡象”，這是我們在第一季度看到任何跡象的事情。不過，我認為您在本季度看到的是我們所有的工具來全面展示這一點。現實是我們解決了壓力，我們開始不得不對它做出反應。所以我不知道我們正在就未來的事情發表聲明。

What we saw today is extremely manageable. And that's just not the case for other lenders out there right now in these credit segments. What we're trying to differentiate us is that we actually have the levers to control it, and we did. And we continue to feel very good about being able to do that into the future. The statement around the macro environment really should be heard as uncertainty.

我們今天看到的情況非常易於管理。而對於目前在這些信貸領域的其他貸方來說，情況並非如此。我們試圖讓我們與眾不同的是，我們實際上有控制它的槓桿，我們做到了。我們繼續對能夠在未來做到這一點感到非常高興。圍繞宏觀環境的聲明確實應該被視為不確定性。

I would politely challenge anybody who thinks they can predict where the economy is going to be in 10 or 11 months, and I think that gives us reason to be prudent in how we operate the business given the lead that we've built, where we have the ability to be very careful and thoughtful about how we run the business. And it doesn't show up in -- as Max said, it doesn't show up in us throttling approval rate substantially. It shows up maybe in the timing and type of products that we want to launch and being careful about introducing a lot of net new because we don't feel like we need to right now. We can be very careful and thoughtful about the state of the consumer and play with the lead that we have right now.

我會禮貌地挑戰任何認為他們可以預測 10 或 11 個月內的經濟狀況的人，我認為這讓我們有理由在如何經營業務時保持謹慎，因為我們已經建立了領先地位，我們在哪裡有能力對我們如何經營業務非常謹慎和深思熟慮。它並沒有出現在——正如馬克斯所說，它並沒有出現在我們大幅降低批准率的過程中。它可能出現在我們想要推出的產品的時間和類型上，並且在引入大量全新產品時要小心，因為我們覺得現在不需要這樣做。我們可以對消費者的狀態非常謹慎和深思熟慮，並利用我們現在擁有的領先優勢。

Next question is coming from James Faucette from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

I wanted to just ask a clarifying question on the rising delinquencies. I mean it seems like they're kind of -- at least in the last month or 6 weeks or a little outside of where you've historically targeted, are you saying that through the incremental changes in the way that you're managing that, we should expect those to come back towards that 2%? Or what's kind of the right range for us to think about where those should be at? And I guess along with that, are there adjustments you need to be making to your provisioning? And then I have a follow-up question on funding.

我只想問一個關於犯罪率上升的澄清問題。我的意思是，它們似乎有點——至少在過去一個月或 6 週，或者稍微超出了你的歷史目標，你是說通過你管理方式的增量變化，我們應該期望那些會回到那 2% 嗎？或者我們應該考慮的正確範圍是什麼？我想，除此之外，您是否需要對配置進行調整？然後我有一個關於資金的後續問題。

So let me start with the second question first. Our allowance that we have on the balance sheet, which determines the provision and the income statement, is that the third quarter declined. So we have -- I can't find any other words to describe how comfortable we are with the current state of credit other than we provided for a full expectation of credit losses at the time of origination, and that outlook has been improving for the third consecutive quarter.

所以讓我先從第二個問題開始。我們在確定撥備和損益表的資產負債表上的準備金是第三季度下降。所以我們有 - 我找不到任何其他詞來描述我們對當前信用狀況的滿意程度，除了我們在發起時提供了對信用損失的全面預期，而且這種前景一直在改善連續第三個季度。

So we feel very strong about the state of the portfolio. The delinquency data that we show publicly is the portion of the total platform portfolio that's 30 days delinquent or more. And as I was probably mumbling through a little bit earlier, there's a numerator and denominator effect there. And it's a little bit difficult for us to want to be prescriptive on where that number needs to be.

因此，我們對投資組合的狀態感到非常強烈。我們公開顯示的拖欠數據是整個平台組合中拖欠 30 天或更長時間的部分。正如我之前可能喃喃自語的那樣，那裡存在分子和分母效應。對於我們來說，想要規定這個數字需要在哪裡有點困難。

Obviously, we have a guardrail. We're way away from the guardrail. The guardrail, as we talked about earlier this year, is many points above anything that we've ever operated the business at. The real thing we would like to do is make sure that the unit economics or revenue less transaction costs are still printing at really high levels with the provisions that we are -- we would need to be taking. And those are the numbers that we feel really, really strong about. And on top of all that, we are hitting the seasonal peak for delinquencies and therefore would expect the seasonality trend to work into our favor from here.

顯然，我們有一個護欄。我們離護欄很遠。正如我們今年早些時候談到的那樣，護欄比我們曾經經營過的業務要高出很多點。我們想做的真正事情是確保單位經濟或收入減去交易成本仍然在我們需要採取的規定的情況下以非常高的水平印刷。這些是我們感到非常非常強烈的數字。最重要的是，我們正在達到拖欠的季節性高峰，因此預計季節性趨勢將從這裡開始對我們有利。

Got it. And then on funding capacity, I appreciate the update there. Can you help characterize for us the -- what the nature of those commitments are from a capacity standpoint? And anything that we should be aware of either in terms of upcoming renewals or where -- the way terms of those commitments could change, et cetera?

知道了。然後關於資金能力，我很欣賞那裡的更新。你能幫我們描述一下——從能力的角度來看，這些承諾的性質是什麼？以及我們應該注意的任何事情，無論是在即將到來的續約方面還是在哪裡——這些承諾的條款可能會改變，等等？

Yes. Thank you for the question. So first, just overall, the way to think about the market, we have really strong demand or supply for -- on balance sheet where health capacity -- I would characterize it as us having to say no and the banks are plenty willing to lend money right now. I think the forward-flow market also remains very attractive with a robust pipeline of forward-flow buyers who are interested in partnering with us.

是的。感謝你的提問。因此，首先，總體而言，考慮市場的方式，我們有非常強勁的需求或供應——在健康能力的資產負債表上——我將其描述為我們不得不說不，銀行非常願意放貸現在的錢。我認為前向流動市場仍然非常有吸引力，因為有大量有興趣與我們合作的前向流動買家。

I think the ABS market is obviously quite volatile, and you're going to see us be a little bit more careful and thoughtful about where and when we execute there this year. However, with respect to forward flow, that capital is very committed. And we have about $200 million out of $4.3 billion of forward-flow capacity that's even up for renewal in the entire fiscal year. That is to say 95% of our capacity is mostly locked into the entirety of fiscal '23 on the forward-flow side.

我認為 ABS 市場顯然非常不穩定，你會看到我們對今年的執行地點和時間更加謹慎和深思熟慮。但是，就前向流動而言，該資本非常投入。在 43 億美元的前向流動能力中，我們有大約 2 億美元甚至可以在整個財政年度進行更新。也就是說，我們 95% 的產能大部分都被鎖定在 23 財年的正向流動側。

What that does for us is it serves as one of the many tools that we have to mitigate any impact of rates. So the ways that could impact us are, first and foremost, access to credit. We enjoy a large amount of capacity where it will not constrain growth. And the second way it impacts us is obviously in higher cost of funds or lower yields that we're able to get when we sell loans. In both those cases, those impacts are delayed.

對我們而言，它是我們必須減輕利率影響的眾多工具之一。因此，可能影響我們的方式首先是獲得信貸。我們享有大量容量，不會限制增長。它影響我們的第二種方式顯然是我們出售貸款時能夠獲得的更高的資金成本或更低的收益率。在這兩種情況下，這些影響都會延遲。

What you saw in the back half of fiscal '22 was a huge shock in rates. When we talked in February until the end of the year, peak rates moved, as you heard in my notes, over 150 bps. And the impact to us was, frankly, impossible for anybody to see as we crushed our revenue less transaction cost numbers in that period. So we look at next year as being a very secure and safe level of funding with the upside being our team is still out executing deals because the markets are still very constructive on the forward-flow side.

你在 22 財年的後半段看到的是利率的巨大衝擊。當我們在 2 月討論到年底時，正如你在我的筆記中聽到的那樣，峰值利率移動了 150 個基點以上。坦率地說，對我們的影響是任何人都無法看到的，因為我們在那段時間將收入減去交易成本的數字壓得粉碎。因此，我們認為明年是一個非常安全和安全的融資水平，好處是我們的團隊仍在執行交易，因為市場在前向流動方面仍然非常具有建設性。

I think the one thing that you're going to see less of this year, though, is ABS execution with the big caveat being that we just don't know. I mean if the market does find a new stable footing, you'll see us be active in the back half of the year. But as we sit here today, we do think that there's a lot more volatility in that market. We're going to be -- and that's showing you up on how we're talking about the funding mix for the next year.

不過，我認為今年你會少見的一件事是 ABS 的執行，但有一個我們不知道的重大警告。我的意思是，如果市場確實找到了新的穩定立足點，你會看到我們在下半年很活躍。但是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們確實認為該市場的波動性更大。我們將成為 - 這將向您展示我們如何談論明年的資金組合。

Your next question is coming from Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

I just wanted to start with a 2-part question on GMV. Can you tell us the fiscal '23, the GMV growth guidance ex Peloton? And then just the second piece there is if we reflect back on fiscal '22, I think you had started the year guiding to 50% to 54%. You ended up at 87%. Amazon helped. And so I'm just trying to get a sense of how much services you guys might be trying to bake in just as you've had multiple times. There's a lot of uncertainty out there. And then I have a follow-up.

我只想從關於 GMV 的兩部分問題開始。您能告訴我們 23 財年的 GMV 增長指導（前 Peloton）嗎？然後只是第二部分，如果我們回顧一下 22 財年，我認為你已經開始指導 50% 到 54% 的目標。你最終達到了 87%。亞馬遜提供了幫助。因此，我只是想了解你們可能會嘗試提供多少服務，就像你們已經做過多次一樣。那裡有很多不確定性。然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. So the first question, in terms of Peloton, we're very proud that we've expanded our merchant and category mix where Peloton continues to deconcentrate in our business. It was low single digits percent of our business in Q4, for example, and yet, we still haven't lapped all of the contribution. So we would continue to expect that to be a declining business.

是的。所以第一個問題，就 Peloton 而言，我們很自豪我們已經擴展了我們的商家和類別組合，而 Peloton 繼續分散在我們的業務中。例如，在第四季度，這是我們業務的低個位數百分比，但是，我們仍然沒有完成所有的貢獻。因此，我們將繼續預計這將是一個下滑的業務。

Our current expectations are that it's something on the order of 4 points of GMV growth and 7 to 8 points of revenue growth that we are not getting this year or at least that we expect Peloton to drag against. And that's part of the reason why we're so confident in the long term here, is that we do have to have to grow out of this little bit of a drag associated with a partner who's trying to right a troubled ship.

我們目前的預期是，我們今年沒有得到大約 4 個 GMV 增長點和 7 到 8 個收入增長點，或者至少我們預計 Peloton 會拖累。這就是為什麼我們對這裡的長期如此充滿信心的部分原因是，我們確實必須擺脫與試圖糾正陷入困境的船舶的合作夥伴相關的這一點拖累。

The second question was how much concerns are we having. Look, our guide is our guide. We are not going to caveat it or characterize it in any way, except it's our guidance. However, we do take it very seriously. We like to put numbers out there that we can achieve. You'll notice that the ranges are wider this year. The width of the range reflects the fact that we do have a lot more factors at play that we can't control. But our guide is the guide, and yet we take it very seriously, and I don't think we've missed one yet.

第二個問題是我們有多少擔憂。看，我們的嚮導就是我們的嚮導。我們不會以任何方式警告或描述它，除非它是我們的指導。但是，我們確實非常重視它。我們喜歡把我們可以實現的數字放在那裡。您會注意到今年的範圍更廣。範圍的寬度反映了我們確實有很多我們無法控制的因素在起作用。但是我們的嚮導就是嚮導，但我們非常認真地對待它，我認為我們還沒有錯過任何一個。

That is true. Just a follow-up, I guess, on the credit side. I mean as we talked about, the delinquencies are up a little bit. I think charge-offs were up as well, but it looks like there was actually a little bit of reserve release in the quarter. As you mentioned, the allowance ratio was down again. So can you just help us reconcile all of that, I guess, just given what's going on in the macro?

那是真實的。我想，這只是信用方面的後續行動。我的意思是，正如我們所談到的，違約率有所上升。我認為沖銷也有所增加，但看起來本季度實際上有一點儲備釋放。正如你所說，津貼率再次下降。所以你能幫我們調和所有這些嗎，我猜，只是考慮到宏中發生的事情？

Yes. So maybe a little bit of a brief description of how the allowance and provisioning works mechanically. So at the time of origination, we make an estimate of the likelihood, the likely allowance needed for that loan. And then every month, we update what we would consider to be the back book's drift or improvement. And so for example, we might estimate a loan or pooled loans will have a 5% total loss content at the time of origination. And a month later, depending upon actual repayment information or the flow rates from one delinquency bucket to the other, we update that view.

是的。因此，也許可以簡要描述一下津貼和準備金是如何機械地工作的。因此，在發起時，我們會估計該貸款所需的可能性，即可能的準備金。然後每個月，我們都會更新我們認為是背書的漂移或改進的地方。因此，例如，我們可能估計貸款或集合貸款在發起時將有 5% 的總損失內容。一個月後，根據實際還款信息或從一個拖欠桶到另一個拖欠桶的流量，我們更新了該視圖。

And it is the case that we're outperforming our own expectations, and just generally speaking, we like to try to be pretty thoughtful in ensuring that we're never underprovided for potential losses. That's still the right side of the ledger to be on as far as we're concerned. And I think that's a factor that's probably very difficult for you to read through. And it's why we keep pointing people back to look at our current allowance rate, and that is our current estimate of all of the future losses of the loans better than our balance sheet.

在這種情況下，我們的表現超出了我們自己的預期，而且一般來說，我們希望盡量考慮周到，以確保我們永遠不會因潛在的損失而供應不足。就我們而言，這仍然是分類帳的右側。而且我認為這可能是您很難閱讀的一個因素。這就是為什麼我們一直讓人們回頭看看我們目前的準備金率，這是我們目前對所有未來貸款損失的估計，比我們的資產負債表要好。

I think that drawing a straight line between data like the DQ 30 chart to eventual charge-offs is a pretty big step and probably not something that I would do. I would look to the current allowance rate as the total losses for the book that's on the balance sheet and then think about that number as being increasing or decreasing, consistent with the future expectation of losses.

我認為在像 DQ 30 圖表這樣的數據與最終的沖銷之間畫一條直線是相當大的一步，我可能不會這樣做。我會將當前的備抵率視為資產負債表上賬面的總損失，然後將該數字視為增加或減少，與未來的損失預期一致。

Our next question today is coming from Moshe Orenbuch from Credit Suisse.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Michael, I think you partially answered this in one of your earlier comments, but could you talk a little more about the credit tightening steps that you took and what impacts they have on the GMV in fiscal '23?

邁克爾，我認為您在之前的評論中部分回答了這個問題，但您能否多談談您採取的信貸緊縮措施以及它們在 23 財年對 GMV 的影響？

Yes. So I think the -- let me speak to what happened in the prior quarter first because I think that's pretty illustrative of what we think will happen. We might look at a particular merchant or a set of consumers or products. We're very -- we're able to be very surgical. And we'll find a pocket of risk that, say, is currently experiencing signs of stress. The levers then that we have at our disposal are everything from actually just increasing the credit bar to lower approval rates because you have less of the capacity to approve to changing the term lengths -- if you change from a 24 to 18 months, your risk posture changes -- or requiring more downpayments.

是的。所以我認為 - 讓我先談談上一季度發生的事情，因為我認為這很好地說明了我們認為將會發生的事情。我們可能會查看特定的商家或一組消費者或產品。我們非常 - 我們能夠非常外科手術。我們會發現一些風險，比如說，目前正在經歷壓力的跡象。那麼我們可以使用的槓桿是從實際上只是增加信用額度到降低批准率（因為您的批准能力較小）到更改期限長度 - 如果您從 24 個月更改為 18 個月，您的風險姿勢改變——或需要更多的首付。

Max mentioned this at the very top. We made all of those moves to manage the early signs of stress. Those are signs of stress, I think, you've seen reported in a lot of other contexts. We were able to fully mitigate those and still be very growthful and actually increase our approval rates. And that's because approval rate, yes or no, isn't the only lever that we have. We have a lot more tools at our disposal.

Max 在最上面提到了這一點。我們採取了所有這些措施來管理壓力的早期跡象。這些是壓力的跡象，我認為，你已經在很多其他情況下看到過報導。我們能夠完全緩解這些問題，並且仍然非常具有增長性，並且實際上提高了我們的批准率。那是因為支持率，是或否，並不是我們擁有的唯一槓桿。我們有更多的工具可供使用。

And we could be very growthful because we were still launching and scaling these very large platform relationships like with Amazon and Shopify. And so these -- I would characterize them as truly like we're talking about low single-digit percentages of GMV on a net basis because while we're doing those tightenings, we're also doing optimizations that open up and find opportunities to underwrite really good risk.

而且我們可能會非常成長，因為我們仍在啟動和擴展這些非常大的平台關係，比如與 Amazon 和 Shopify。所以這些——我會把它們描述為真的就像我們在談論淨 GMV 的低個位數百分比一樣，因為在我們進行這些收緊的同時，我們也在進行優化以開放並尋找機會承保真的很好的風險。

If you think about how that informs the plan going forward, I think it's maybe a tertiary factor. I don't even think it's a primary factor. And it's definitely true that we have a more conservative posture today than we did a year ago. But the impact of lapping the explosive growth in the first half of last fiscal year and the aforementioned Peloton categorical headwind, combined with the things like the shift in e-commerce and the discretionary spend, those probably matter more than the things that we're seeing directly on credit as we sit here today. The truth is, as we said in the call, as we see deterioration, we will pull extra levers. They may not show up as substantially less growth, but they will, nonetheless, show up with protecting our unit economics.

如果您考慮一下這如何為未來的計劃提供信息，我認為這可能是第三個因素。我什至不認為這是一個主要因素。確實，我們今天的態度比一年前更加保守。但是，上一財年上半年的爆炸性增長和前面提到的 Peloton 絕對逆風的影響，再加上電子商務的轉變和可自由支配的支出，這些可能比我們現在的事情更重要當我們今天坐在這裡時，直接看到信用。事實是，正如我們在電話會議中所說，當我們看到惡化時，我們將採取額外的措施。它們的增長可能不會顯著降低，但儘管如此，它們會保護我們的單位經濟。

Got it. And as a follow-up, at the beginning of the call, Max had mentioned the rewards program. I was hoping you could kind of maybe flesh out a little bit how you think that will impact both sides of revenue less transaction costs, how it will impact kind of volume and costs as we go forward.

知道了。作為後續行動，在通話開始時，Max 提到了獎勵計劃。我希望你能稍微充實一下你認為這將如何影響收入和交易成本的雙方，以及在我們前進的過程中它將如何影響數量和成本。

So first of all, we're launching a beta. And as we do everything here, it's a slow start, very careful optimization. We're not going to compromise our unit economics. We're not going to compromise any other metric that we care a lot about. The goal, first and foremost, is to compel consumers to transact with Affirm more. I think when we took this company public, the conversation in the investor community and the analyst community was, "Well, you guys are great, but will people transact more than just 1.5x a year or whatever the number was?" We've shown that we can continue to move that number up and up and up.

所以首先，我們正在推出一個測試版。當我們在這裡做所有事情時，這是一個緩慢的開始，非常仔細的優化。我們不會損害我們的單位經濟性。我們不會妥協我們非常關心的任何其他指標。首要目標是迫使消費者與 Affirm 進行更多交易。我認為當我們將這家公司上市時，投資者社區和分析師社區的對話是，“嗯，你們很棒，但人們每年的交易量是否會超過 1.5 倍或其他數字？”我們已經表明，我們可以繼續不斷地提高這個數字。

One of the preference drivers is how rewarding are these transactions. And typically, that means miles or points or something like that. Of course, we'll put our own spin on it. And we are different and we like our differences. But it will be a way to give consumers one more reason to choose Affirm when they have all the choices. Rewards also tends to attract higher credit quality consumers. Just as a general statement, you will see that folks that need credit to improve their buying capacity don't care as much about reward. Folks that have lots of choices tend to select their paying instrument in part based on how rewarding it is.

偏好驅動因素之一是這些交易的回報程度。通常，這意味著里程或積分或類似的東西。當然，我們會自己動手。我們是不同的，我們喜歡我們的不同。但這將是一種讓消費者在擁有所有選擇時有更多理由選擇 Affirm 的方式。獎勵也往往會吸引更高信用質量的消費者。就像一般性陳述一樣，您會看到需要信用來提高購買能力的人並不關心獎勵。有很多選擇的人傾向於選擇他們的付費工具，部分取決於它的回報程度。

Therefore, consciously, and we're being very careful in the forecast here, with -- at least with that peace of mind, we don't expect to make this cost us more in unit economics. The goal is to keep the unit economics. They are protected. We quite like our RLTC rate and we'll keep targeting that. That hopefully makes it clear that these are predominantly merchant-funded. We'll launch with a handful of early merchant partners in just a little while from now, and we'll see how it goes and how well it drives incrementality to GMV. So the simple answer is we expect more GMV, hopefully, more transactions per active user. Should not expect deterioration in unit economics.

因此，有意識地，我們在這裡的預測非常謹慎，至少在這種安心的情況下，我們不希望這會讓我們在單位經濟學方面付出更多的代價。目標是保持單位經濟性。他們受到保護。我們非常喜歡我們的 RLTC 費率，我們將繼續以此為目標。希望這清楚地表明這些主要是由商人資助的。從現在開始，我們將與少數早期的商業合作夥伴一起推出，我們將看看它是如何進行的，以及它如何推動 GMV 的增量。所以簡單的答案是我們期望更多的 GMV，希望每個活躍用戶有更多的交易。不應期望單位經濟性惡化。

Our next question is coming from Rob Wildhack from Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Rob Wildhack。

I wanted to drill down a bit on the revenue outlook. As a percentage of volume, revenue this year was 8.7%, and the midpoint of the guidance is for 7.9%. So what else besides Peloton, if anything, is moving around in there?

我想深入了解一下收入前景。以銷量百分比計，今年的收入為 8.7%，指引的中點為 7.9%。那麼除了 Peloton 之外，還有什麼東西在裡面移動呢？

Yes. Peloton and, in general, the mix shift towards lower take rate products. And if you think about $1 of low teens MDR, high -- long-term 0% being swapped in for $1 of 4% to 5% Split Pay-type MDRs, you're giving up a lot on a GMV basis in terms of total revenue. Now some of that's offset by the strong revenue profile of our interest-bearing product, although there's obviously a timing element to that as well. But the biggest driver is just the growth in our low AOV business, which has a lower revenue take rate.

是的。 Peloton 以及總體而言，該組合轉向較低採用率的產品。如果您考慮 1 美元的低青少年 MDR，高 - 長期 0% 被換成 1 美元的 4% 到 5% 的拆分支付型 MDR，您在 GMV 的基礎上放棄了很多總收入。現在，其中一些被我們有息產品的強勁收入狀況所抵消，儘管這顯然也有時間因素。但最大的驅動力只是我們低 AOV 業務的增長，該業務的收入佔用率較低。

Okay. And then on Debit+, I appreciate that it's still early, but now that that's generally available, how do the unit economics there compare to the 3% to 4% revenue less transaction cost yield that you're always talking about and emphasizing? And would growth in that product have any material effect on the target for adjusted operating profit to be positive by year-end?

好的。然後在 Debit+ 上，我很欣賞現在還為時過早，但現在已經普遍可用，與你一直在談論和強調的 3% 到 4% 的收入減去交易成本收益率相比，那裡的單位經濟學如何？該產品的增長是否會對年底調整後的營業利潤為正的目標產生重大影響？

That's a great question. The short answer is too early to tell. The reason we excluded the forecast is because that's literally what I've been spending a lot of my personal time on. And I'm not prepared to declare it to be ready to be given to everyone. We have 14 million active users that are very excited about this product. It's very clear that they're transacting a lot more. If you drill down in that, you'll see the metrics that there's quite a lot of pay-now transactions. Those obviously have a very different revenue profile. There's not a lot of risk in there at all. And that's obviously a natural drag on revenue less transaction cost, if you start to think of it that way.

這是一個很好的問題。簡短的回答還為時過早。我們排除預測的原因是因為這實際上是我花費大量個人時間的原因。而且我不准備宣布它已準備好提供給每個人。我們有 1400 萬活躍用戶對這款產品感到非常興奮。很明顯，他們正在進行更多交易。如果你深入研究，你會看到有相當多的立即付款交易的指標。這些顯然有非常不同的收入狀況。那裡根本沒有太大的風險。如果你開始這樣想的話，這顯然是收入減去交易成本的自然拖累。

On the flip side, we see quite a lot more loan volume, which is great. And we're excited about the incremental usage that we get in the credit that we provide there. Again, our goals are very clear. We very much like our unit economics. We intend to protect them. We are not going to compromise them. The risk associated with these transactions is new to us. We're still optimizing exactly, for example, what sort of insufficient funds rate we'll see as the transactions flow through the connected checking accounts. That's why we haven't pushed it all the way through to the general population. It is available, but we have really not promoted very hard. So I think I've given just enough data before...

另一方面，我們看到更多的貸款量，這很好。我們對我們在那裡提供的信用中獲得的增量使用感到興奮。同樣，我們的目標非常明確。我們非常喜歡我們的單位經濟學。我們打算保護他們。我們不會妥協他們。與這些交易相關的風險對我們來說是新的。我們仍在精確優化，例如，當交易流經關聯的支票賬戶時，我們將看到什麼樣的資金不足率。這就是為什麼我們沒有將它一直推廣到普通人群的原因。它是可用的，但我們真的沒有很努力地推廣。所以我想我之前已經提供了足夠的數據......

Yes. And the thing I would -- maybe to put it in context, the revenue models for the Debit+ product will be unregulated today, unregulated debit interchange, which obviously, you're not making 3% to 4% when your gross is down there. And then interest-bearing, I'll just note that some of our strongest and most profitable programs are direct-to-consumer interest-bearing products. We feel really good about that side of the house.

是的。我想——也許可以把它放在上下文中，Debit+ 產品的收入模式今天將不受監管，不受監管的借方交換，很明顯，當你的總收入下降時，你不會賺 3% 到 4%。然後是計息，我只想指出，我們一些最強大和最有利可圖的計劃是直接面向消費者的計息產品。我們對房子的那一側感覺非常好。

And obviously, you'll see some lower total growth in that take rate, revenue take rates and RLTC take rates on the pay now or debit transactions that happen on the card. We've not given any guidance because, as Max said, it's a bit too early. But you would expect it to be lower. That being said, our direct-to-consumer product is much higher than that. And so we haven't given guidance, and not going to today, but we feel really good about where we're getting to once we are at scale.

顯然，您會看到現在支付或發生在卡上的借記交易的收取率、收入收取率和 RLTC 收取率的總增長率有所降低。我們沒有給出任何指導，因為正如 Max 所說，這有點太早了。但你會期望它會更低。話雖如此，我們的直接面向消費者的產品遠高於此。所以我們沒有給出指導，今天也不會去，但是一旦我們達到規模，我們對我們到達的地方感覺非常好。

Next question is coming from Reggie Smith from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Two quick ones. The first, I guess you kind of signaled that you saw some deterioration. And I was curious if that was something that you saw in the calendar second quarter. Or is it more something that you were seeing in this particular quarter? Recognizing that you're almost 2 months into the quarter.

兩個快的。首先，我猜你有點暗示你看到了一些惡化。我很好奇這是否是你在日曆第二季度看到的。還是您在這個特定季度看到的更多？認識到您已經進入本季度將近 2 個月。

And the second part of that question. Just curious what some of the, I guess, lead indicators you guys are looking at. I can certainly appreciate you have more insight than maybe the traditional credit card guys. Is it slower payment? Is it the balances and the associated checking accounts? Like what kind of data are you guys pulling from? Obviously, recognizing that you don't want to give away your secret sauce, whatever you could share there would be helpful.

這個問題的第二部分。只是好奇你們在看什麼，我猜，領先指標。我當然可以感謝您比傳統的信用卡專家更有洞察力。付款速度慢嗎？是餘額和相關的支票賬戶嗎？比如你們從什麼樣的數據中提取？顯然，認識到你不想洩露你的秘訣，無論你在那里分享什麼都會有所幫助。

We'll give away a little bit of the secret sauce, and hopefully, it does not help my competitors too much. So one really interesting -- actually, to answer the -- probably the more kind of relevant part of the question, we've been anticipating some form of stress since as early as January. So we have been keeping our eyes very, very open and have been optimizing credit and credit performance all throughout the calendar year. So this is not a new thing at all.

我們將贈送一點秘方，希望它不會對我的競爭對手有太大幫助。所以一個非常有趣的——實際上，回答這個問題——可能是問題中更相關的部分，我們早在一月份就已經預料到了某種形式的壓力。因此，我們一直非常非常開放，並在整個日曆年中一直在優化信貸和信貸表現。所以這根本不是什麼新鮮事。

The, call it, April and May is when we started taking a harder look at things, just sort of basically spending more time on the analytics. So I think the overall behavior of our credit and risk teams has really not changed in the last, whatever months we're in, 9. But just the level of intensity we've been applying to the research side of it has increased and increased and increased.

所謂的 4 月和 5 月是我們開始更仔細地看待事物的時候，基本上是在分析上花費更多時間。所以我認為我們的信用和風險團隊的整體行為在過去確實沒有改變，無論我們在哪個月份，9。但只是我們一直在研究方面的強度水平越來越高並增加。

And the more we look, the more we find. And we have been finding pockets of interesting things that we care to correct before they metastasize into something greater. So one anecdote that I was going to share is there's a really interesting -- as much as Michael just pointed out, going on a straight line from DQ 30 into the ultimate charge-off is a bad idea in my opinion because there's a lot of opportunities to cure. There's a lot of tools we have. There's everything from loan modifications to collection strategies.

我們看的越多，我們發現的就越多。我們一直在尋找一些有趣的東西，我們希望在它們轉移到更大的東西之前加以糾正。所以我要分享的一個軼事是有一個非常有趣的——正如邁克爾剛剛指出的那樣，在我看來，從 DQ 30 直線進入最終沖銷是一個壞主意，因為有很多治癒的機會。我們有很多工具。從貸款修改到收款策略，應有盡有。

That said, when you look at early delinquencies and how the flow rates change is a really good predictor of at least one kind of behavior. Consumers who basically say, "Look, I'm kind of short right now, but I'll make good on it a little bit later than I was supposed to." And that's enough of a canary in a coal mine where if you look at it everywhere, you probably won't nice it because most consumers are still just fine. But if you look in the pockets where you might expect that sort of thing, you can start spotting these sort of things.

也就是說，當您查看早期拖欠以及流量如何變化時，可以很好地預測至少一種行為。消費者基本上會說，“看，我現在有點矮，但我會比我應該做的晚一點。”這對煤礦裡的金絲雀來說已經足夠了，如果你到處看它，你可能不會喜歡它，因為大多數消費者仍然很好。但是，如果您查看可能會出現這種情況的口袋，您就可以開始發現這種情況。

And at scale, it typically means job losses. We're obviously not there yet, and hopefully, it won't get too far. But before that, that's actually a reflection of consumer sentiment about their potential for job loss, which is a second-order metric, but we care a lot for those.

在規模上，這通常意味著失業。我們顯然還沒有到那裡，希望它不會走得太遠。但在此之前，這實際上反映了消費者對他們失業潛力的看法，這是一個二階指標，但我們非常關心這些。

Got it. And then if I can get one more follow-up in. You have a slide where you show delinquency trends by, I think, cohort. I believe that's for your held portfolio. Can you talk to, I guess, what the trends look like for the entire platform portfolio? Is it consistent with that? Or any differences worth calling out between the 2?

知道了。然後，如果我可以再進行一次跟進。您有一張幻燈片，我認為按群組顯示犯罪趨勢。我相信這適用於您持有的投資組合。我猜你能談談整個平台組合的趨勢嗎？是否與此一致？或者兩者之間有什麼值得一提的區別？

Yes. If you're referring to the churn we have in our earnings supplement that's titled Delinquency Performance, that's total portfolio excluding Split Pay. We exclude that because there's a bunch of goofy stuff that happens with the denominator. And that's a chart we've been chatting through today, but that takes a look at the total platform portfolio. And we manage credit and look at credit metrics. We never distinguish between on and off except for when we go to the financial statements. The actual credit measures are always on portfolio-wise.

是的。如果您指的是我們在名為拖欠績效的收益補充文件中的流失率，那就是不包括拆分薪酬的總投資組合。我們將其排除在外，因為分母會發生很多愚蠢的事情。這是我們今天一直在討論的圖表，但它著眼於整個平台組合。我們管理信用並查看信用指標。除了查看財務報表時，我們從不區分開和關。實際的信貸措施總是在投資組合方面。

And there, you can see the trend we were talking about earlier where you saw the seasonal growth. It's a pretty normal thing to see sequential increases going to late summer months as you have seasonally low period coming off of the tax season. And so that's what it looks like overall. Again, I think we feel very strong about where credit sits today. We feel very good about our ability to manage the small levels of stress that we have seen and are very optimistic and confident in our ability to do so through the rest of the fiscal year.

在那裡，你可以看到我們之前談到的趨勢，你看到了季節性增長。看到在夏末月份連續增長是一件很正常的事情，因為你有季節性的低谷期即將結束。這就是整體的樣子。同樣，我認為我們對今天的信用狀況感到非常強烈。我們對自己處理所看到的小規模壓力的能力感到非常滿意，並且對我們在本財年剩餘時間裡做到這一點的能力非常樂觀和充滿信心。

Your next question is coming from Michael Ng from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Michael Ng。

I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more color around the 32% to 42% year-over-year origination volume outlook. Is there anything you can talk about as it relates to how each of the segments or products will grow relative to that consolidated growth rate? And is there anything that you could potentially talk about as it relates to categories, whether it's faster or slower than that consolidated growth rate?

我只是想知道你是否可以在 32% 到 42% 的同比原始量前景提供更多的顏色。關於每個細分市場或產品相對於綜合增長率的增長方式，您有什麼可以談論的嗎？你有什麼可以談論的與類別有關的東西，無論是比綜合增長率更快還是更慢？

Yes. Just to recap again, I do think we would expect our sporting goods and outdoors business to show some headwind. It was the only category that declined last quarter. We would continue to expect that to be a drag. We estimate that single partner to be 4% June, be a headwind alone.

是的。再次回顧一下，我確實認為我們預計我們的體育用品和戶外業務會出現一些逆風。這是上個季度唯一下降的類別。我們會繼續認為這會是一個拖累。我們估計 6 月份的單身合夥人為 4%，僅是逆風。

The second thing I'd say is in Q2 of last year, we launched to general availability with Amazon. And we also went GA in late Q1, early Q2 for Shopify. And as you start to lap those, you are going to see, for the category that they're overindexed in, some compression. So for example, general merchandise will have lower growth rates. However, it's from a very, very, very high growth rate base because the base gets bigger but the dollars of growth are still very impressive there.

我要說的第二件事是在去年的第二季度，我們與亞馬遜一起推出了全面可用性。我們還在第一季度末、第二季度初為 Shopify 推出了 GA。當你開始研究這些時，你會看到，對於它們被過度索引的類別，一些壓縮。例如，一般商品的增長率會較低。然而，它來自一個非常、非常、非常高的增長率基數，因為基數越來越大，但增長的美元在那裡仍然非常可觀。

And just for a second, to be really clear on what it's not, the guidance for GMV is not reflective of the view that we have around consumer demand for our product. We're still seeing healthy application levels. As I mentioned before, our approval rates are actually up, so both the demand and our ability to underwrite. It's also not a function of any shift away from or falling out of favor of the category. We continue to see our payment method as being more important to merchants than it was in any prior period.

稍等一下，要真正清楚它不是什麼，GMV 的指導並不反映我們對消費者對我們產品的需求的看法。我們仍然看到健康的應用程序級別。正如我之前提到的，我們的批准率實際上在上升，因此需求和我們的承保能力都在上升。它也不是任何偏離或不受歡迎該類別的函數。我們繼續認為我們的支付方式對商家來說比以往任何時候都更加重要。

And lastly, it's not a function of capital constraints. And so our outlook really is about the 1 or 2 pieces of acute headwind and then we're lapping some really gaudy numbers. We feel really good about the underlying absolute value of the business and feel really good about our path to continue to build a really big network at scale.

最後，這不是資本約束的函數。因此，我們的前景確實是關於 1 或 2 次嚴重逆風，然後我們正在研究一些非常華而不實的數字。我們對業務的潛在絕對價值感覺非常好，對我們繼續大規模建立一個非常大的網絡的道路感覺非常好。

Great. And just as a follow-up, sorry, I know this came up earlier on the call, but could you just talk a little bit more about the trajectory of revenue less transaction margins throughout the year? I know you said there was going to be a valley in the fiscal second quarter. Is that a function of the holiday and mix? Is that more Split Pay? Any color there would be helpful.

偉大的。作為後續行動，抱歉，我知道這是在電話會議的早些時候提出的，但你能多談談全年收入減去交易利潤率的軌跡嗎？我知道你說過第二財季會出現低谷。這是假期和混合的功能嗎？那是更多的分薪嗎？那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. So you have our guide for Q1, and then what you'll expect to see in Q2 is originations spiking, lots of originations later in the quarter. And when that happens, it's just that the way things flow through the P&L is that you end up with lower revenue and RLTC rates in the quarter. And then the back half of the year, you kind of realize some of the benefit of originations that happened earlier in the year. And we expect the same trend to play out, albeit slightly more muted because, again, I think the explosive growth that we had in Q2 won't be repeated, but the shape should look very similarly.

是的。所以你有我們的第一季度指南，然後你期望在第二季度看到的是起源激增，本季度晚些時候會有很多起源。當這種情況發生時，只是通過損益表的方式是，您最終會在本季度獲得較低的收入和 RLTC 費率。然後在今年下半年，你會意識到今年早些時候發生的起源的一些好處。我們預計同樣的趨勢會出現，儘管會稍微溫和一些，因為我再次認為我們在第二季度的爆炸性增長不會重複，但形狀應該看起來非常相似。

And so you have our guide for Q1. Think about Q2 as being lower on a vertical basis, although again, we feel really good about the economic content that we'll be originating in that quarter such that the back half of the year will be improving from there.

所以你有我們的第一季度指南。考慮到第二季度在垂直基礎上較低，儘管我們再次對我們將在該季度產生的經濟內容感覺非常好，因此今年下半年將從那裡有所改善。

Our next question is coming from Andrew Jeffrey from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

Max, when I look at the very impressive customer and merchant growth metrics you put up, and I juxtapose those with the very high recurring transactions you're getting, the recurring rate from your existing customers, 85%, I think, how do we think about monetizing all this new potential, both merchants and customers, that you brought on? It strikes me that for Affirm to be really successful in the long run, you've got to really spread out monetization. So how do we think about that in the long run?

Max，當我看到您提出的非常令人印象深刻的客戶和商家增長指標時，我將那些與您獲得的非常高的經常性交易並列在一起，您現有客戶的經常性率為 85%，我想，我們如何考慮將您帶來的所有這些新潛力（包括商家和客戶）貨幣化？讓我感到震驚的是，要讓 Affirm 從長遠來看真正成功，你必須真正分散貨幣化。那麼從長遠來看，我們如何看待這個問題？

Great question. So thematically, the way I've been thinking about overall strategy for this fiscal year and the strategy set a little bit earlier than -- in the year, so we think about it for a while, but this is the year we're going to execute on it. This is really the year of the consumer. Last year, we were lucky, proud, successful enough to bring on over half of e-commerce volumes onto the platform. We launched to general availability on a whole bunch of platforms and have been able to scale with them.

好問題。所以從主題上講，我一直在考慮本財年的整體戰略，而且戰略設定的時間比今年早一點，所以我們考慮了一段時間，但這是我們要去的一年執行它。今年真的是消費年。去年，我們很幸運、自豪、成功地將超過一半的電子商務交易量帶到了平台上。我們在一大堆平台上推出了普遍可用性，並且能夠隨它們擴展。

And it's showing up in the network effects. You see transaction usage growing, transaction per consumer. So over the year, we brought on a whole lot of new consumers. So the denominator has grown, and the numerator outpaced it. And so it's all goodness in terms of bringing on new users on to the network. And this year, we're really going to invest in just making this the very best product for the end consumer in every imaginable way. And I'll definitely spend lots of time talking about this at our product road map event sometime towards the end of the calendar year.

它正在網絡效應中顯現出來。您會看到交易使用量在增長，每個消費者的交易。所以在這一年裡，我們帶來了很多新的消費者。所以分母變大了，分子超過了它。因此，就將新用戶引入網絡而言，這一切都是好事。今年，我們真的會投資，以各種可以想像的方式讓這款產品成為最終消費者的最佳產品。我肯定會在接近日曆年年底的某個時候在我們的產品路線圖活動中花很多時間討論這個問題。

But just if you scan the things that we bragged about in the -- in my recorded section, rewards, I think, is going to really move the needle not just in terms of consumer satisfaction but also will make it a very compelling promotional platform for merchants. And we expect to find good monetization there. Brand-sponsored promotions is something that we've proven to work almost manually, if you will, in some of our largest big-box partners. We're really going to put it on a conveyor belt by creating a self-service console for that and integrating in a bunch of places.

但是，如果您瀏覽一下我們在我錄製的部分中吹噓的事情，我認為獎勵不僅會在消費者滿意度方面真正發揮作用，而且還會使其成為一個非常引人注目的促銷平台商人。我們希望在那裡找到良好的貨幣化。如果您願意的話，我們已經在一些最大的大型合作夥伴中證明了品牌贊助的促銷活動幾乎可以手動進行。我們真的會通過為此創建一個自助服務控制台並集成到很多地方來將它放在傳送帶上。

We have -- obviously, Debit+ is something that I am personally very passionate about. I have fantastic customer stories now -- when I say customer here, I mean consumer. But I literally had a chat with a person who went to Colombia, the country, on vacation with exactly one card in his wallet, Debit+. And in the early beta, it did not work internationally, so we had to scramble a solution for him. But it's something that I really think is just a fantastic way of increasing transactions.

我們有 - 顯然，Debit+ 是我個人非常熱衷的事情。我現在有很棒的客戶故事——當我在這裡說客戶時，我的意思是消費者。但我確實和一個去哥倫比亞度假的人聊天，他的錢包裡只有一張卡，Debit+。而且在早期的測試版中，它在國際上不起作用，所以我們不得不為他爭取一個解決方案。但我真的認為這只是增加交易的一種絕妙方式。

Obviously, 2.7 transactions per week is a massive, massive opportunity to create more value for consumers. Every one of these transactions is 2-sided. There's always a merchant on the other side, and they are excited about the incremental conversion, incremental volume that we're bringing on. Frankly, there are huge opportunities in demand discovery and demand generation, which we're just scratching the surface. If you go into the Affirm app, you'll find we've made a lot of really interesting improvements in item-level search. There's some really clever promotions around specific items.

顯然，每週 2.7 筆交易是為消費者創造更多價值的巨大機會。這些交易中的每一筆都是雙面的。另一邊總是有一個商人，他們對我們帶來的增量轉換和增量感到興奮。坦率地說，在需求發現和需求產生方面存在著巨大的機會，而我們只是觸及了表面。如果您進入 Affirm 應用程序，您會發現我們在項目級搜索方面做出了許多非常有趣的改進。圍繞特定項目有一些非常聰明的促銷活動。

One really good metric, north of 50% of our owned and operated service originated transactions, basically Affirm Anywhere and now Debit+ transactions, begin in a search box, just kind of an interesting stat that should tell you opportunities there to monetize are pretty enormous. There's a small company in Mountain View that figured out how to make money on capturing consumer demand from search.

一個非常好的指標，在我們擁有和運營的服務發起交易的 50% 以上，基本上是 Affirm Anywhere 和現在的 Debit+ 交易，從搜索框開始，這是一個有趣的統計數據，應該告訴你在那裡獲利的機會非常巨大。山景城有一家小公司想出瞭如何通過從搜索中獲取消費者需求來賺錢。

So we have lots of really, really exciting things planned for the consumer for this year. And I hope to brag about them on the next call, but I'll stop now because I'm taking up air time because Michael has gotten some really good questions. But we have a lot planned on the consumer side for sure. And every one of these things is an opportunity to increase our margins.

所以我們今年為消費者計劃了很多非常非常令人興奮的事情。我希望在下一次電話會議上吹噓他們，但我現在要停下來，因為我要佔用廣播時間，因為邁克爾得到了一些非常好的問題。但我們肯定在消費者方面有很多計劃。這些事情中的每一件事都是增加我們利潤的機會。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, just can you just speak to Affirm's competitive position? You've had some new entrants in the market that have grown really fast. What convinces you that Affirm is the long-term winner?

好的。然後作為後續行動，你能不能只談談 Affirm 的競爭地位？市場上有一些增長非常快的新進入者。是什麼讓您相信 Affirm 是長期贏家？

I think on at least the unit basis, we're seeing more competitors, if not exit the market, then fall away in terms of their competitive position. I think the -- if you look at the North American footprint, I would argue we've established our dominance over the last fiscal year quite decisively. Presumably, you're talking about my baby #1 relative to the current baby. PayPal entering the business generally did not have an impact that we could discern in our ability to close merchants or our ability to convince consumers that we have a great product.

我認為至少在單位的基礎上，我們看到更多的競爭對手，如果不退出市場，那麼他們的競爭地位就會下降。我認為——如果你看看北美的足跡，我認為我們已經非常果斷地確立了我們在上一財年的主導地位。大概，你說的是我的寶寶 #1 相對於現在的寶寶。 PayPal 進入該行業通常不會對我們關閉商家的能力或讓消費者相信我們擁有出色產品的能力產生影響。

I think the audience that PayPal serves is a little bit like me, kind of an aging Gen-Xer with a couple of kids and a dog. And Affirm serves predominantly Gen Z and millennial audience. And the 2 are quite different. And it's good that there are products available to everyone, and we're excited to, overall, see the shift from credit cards and cash to buy now pay later. So for the moment, because the segment is still underpenetrated, we're not really feeling any competitive pressures. I'm sure eventually it will come to an end, but for the moment, we're still single digit of U.S. e-commerce.

我認為 PayPal 服務的受眾有點像我，有點像年邁的 X 一代，有幾個孩子和一條狗。 Affirm 主要服務於 Z 世代和千禧一代的觀眾。並且兩者完全不同。所有人都可以使用產品，這很好，總的來說，我們很高興看到從信用卡和現金購買到現在購買以後付款的轉變。因此，就目前而言，由於該細分市場尚未滲透，我們並沒有真正感受到任何競爭壓力。我相信它最終會走到盡頭，但目前，我們仍然是美國電子商務的個位數。

And to my point of view, the single most exciting thing -- not single. There's a lot of exciting things. That's actually unfair. But one of the most exciting things that we're seeing right now is Debit+ being 50-50 online/offline. There's just a complete greenfield of off-line transactions that no one's really figured out, and we think we have something really special there.

在我看來，最令人興奮的事情——不是單身。有很多令人興奮的事情。這其實是不公平的。但我們現在看到的最令人興奮的事情之一是 Debit+ 在線/離線 50-50。只是沒有人真正想出來的離線交易的完整綠地，我們認為我們在那裡有一些非常特別的東西。

Our next question is coming from Chris Brendler from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Chris Brendler。戴維森。

I'd love to hear -- I appreciate your guidance didn't include sort of a deceleration in consumer activity in the space. But I'd love to hear if you have any sort of recent color on consumer demand for buy now pay later just given the inflationary environment. Are we seeing more folks shift to this product because -- to make ends meet? Are we seeing more folks shift to the Split Pay product to avoid some of the longer term, the bigger purchases? Any color there would be great on just consumer behavior recently.

我很想听聽——我很感激你的指導沒有包括該領域消費者活動的減速。但我很想听聽，鑑於通脹環境，您最近是否對現在購買的消費者需求有任何看法。我們是否看到越來越多的人轉向這個產品，因為——為了維持生計？我們是否看到越來越多的人轉向拆分支付產品以避免一些長期的、更大的購買？任何顏色都會對最近的消費者行為產生很好的影響。

I'll start, and I'm sure Michael has a take on it that's a little different. So short answer is no. We're seeing, if anything, increased demand on the consumer side, which is exactly as we expected it, primarily because inflation takes away spending capacity and you borrow to increase it. So I think in terms of need more credit, that has been pointing north as inflation became more and more of a thing.

我會開始，我相信邁克爾對此有一點不同。所以簡短的回答是否定的。我們看到，如果有的話，消費者方面的需求增加了，這與我們的預期完全一樣，主要是因為通貨膨脹剝奪了消費能力，而你借錢來增加它。因此，我認為就需要更多信貸而言，隨著通脹變得越來越重要，這一直指向北方。

We do see secondary effects of inflation. Some folks choose not to buy because the prices relative to their earning capacity are higher. And so they are thinking longer. They are buying a little bit less. But I don't think that impacts buy now pay later. If anything, it accretes to buy now pay later and other forms of credit, too.

我們確實看到了通貨膨脹的次要影響。有些人選擇不購買，因為相對於他們的收入能力而言價格更高。所以他們思考的時間更長。他們買的少了一點。但我不認為現在購買的影響會在以後支付。如果有的話，它也增加了現在購買以後付款和其他形式的信用。

In terms of shift to shorter and longer term, that's a really, really good and important question. There's a lot of that, that we control in the sense that the consumer sees at least 3, sometimes 4 different term lengths that we offer for every transaction, depending on what the consumer looks for. And we've now gotten quite good with it, you have to check to out, optimizing with the right collection of offerings.

就轉向短期和長期而言，這是一個非常非常好的和重要的問題。我們可以控制其中的很多內容，即消費者會看到至少 3 個，有時是 4 個我們為每筆交易提供的不同期限長度，具體取決於消費者所尋找的內容。而且我們現在已經做得很好了，您必須檢查一下，使用正確的產品集合進行優化。

That consumer can decide quite differently. Folks that are buying something that is pretty short term -- or sorry, pretty low AOV tend to select short term because those transactions, we can, generally speaking, do on no interest at all. And so it really is a free loan, and it's pretty great if you can get it because -- just for use of money. It flips pretty dramatically when you are looking at an item that is actually outside of your personal cash position or personal cash flow. It then becomes a matter of monthly cash flow impact. And so at that point, consumers tend to choose the longest term possible because that lowers their overall cash exposure on a monthly basis.

該消費者可以做出完全不同的決定。購買短期商品的人——或者對不起，AOV 很低的人傾向於選擇短期商品，因為這些交易，一般來說，我們可以在沒有興趣的情況下進行。所以它真的是免費貸款，如果你能得到它是非常棒的，因為 - 只是為了使用金錢。當您查看實際上超出您的個人現金頭寸或個人現金流的項目時，它會非常劇烈地翻轉。然後它變成了每月現金流影響的問題。因此，在這一點上，消費者傾向於選擇盡可能長的期限，因為這會降低他們每月的整體現金敞口。

That obviously increases our risk, increases the number of opportunities that consumer has to go delinquent or default. And as a result, we manage our risk by being judicious about just how long we're willing to take this term out to for the transaction. So we have as much to say about these terms as the consumer does, if not more, but there's definitely some differentiated behavior.

這顯然增加了我們的風險，增加了消費者拖欠或違約的機會。因此，我們通過審慎地判斷我們願意為交易保留這個期限多長時間來管理我們的風險。因此，我們對這些術語的看法與消費者一樣多，甚至更多，但肯定存在一些差異化的行為。

The one thing that I can tell you quite right about, 0% APR transactions are that much more exciting in an inflationary environment because borrowing money is becoming expensive, thanks to the Fed, and buying things is more expensive, thanks to inflation. So if you can secure a transaction that has no interest at all, it's pretty great.

我可以非常正確地告訴你的一件事是，在通貨膨脹的環境中，0% 的 APR 交易更加令人興奮，因為藉錢變得越來越貴，這要歸功於美聯儲，而購買東西則更加昂貴，這要歸功於通貨膨脹。因此，如果您可以確保一筆完全沒有興趣的交易，那就太好了。

Yes. The only thing to add to that, if you look at the transaction count, it's a really good measure for what's going on, our consumers wanting to use this product more because so many of the other things are functions of puts and takes on merchant relationships, product types and everything else. But the actual transaction count growth is huge. We grew transactions last quarter 139%. The biggest piece of growth in the business is hitting more transactions on the platform.

是的。唯一要補充的是，如果您查看交易數量，這是衡量正在發生的事情的一個非常好的衡量標準，我們的消費者希望更多地使用該產品，因為許多其他事情都是看跌和承接商家關係的功能，產品類型和其他一切。但是實際的交易數量增長是巨大的。我們上個季度的交易量增長了 139%。該業務最大的增長點是在平台上進行更多交易。

And yes, we're proud that 85% came from repeat users, but the total gross number of transactions is a really good measure of just how much there -- and it's sequentially up a lot, too. It wasn't just up year-over-year. We were up sequentially from Q3 quite a bit and across a really wide set of categories. This past quarter saw our travel and ticketing business really dominate the -- I think we peaked at a little over 12% of GMV that quarter. And that just shows you that this is not a single-use product. They're not -- for us anyway, it's not about beauty or T-shirts on Shopify. It's about everything that they're buying and we sold out last quarter.

是的，我們很自豪 85% 來自重複用戶，但總交易量是衡量有多少的一個很好的衡量標準——而且它也連續上升了很多。它不僅僅是逐年上升。我們從第三季度開始連續上升了很多，並且跨越了非常廣泛的類別。在過去的這個季度，我們的旅行和票務業務確實佔據了主導地位——我認為我們在那個季度達到了 GMV 的 12% 以上的峰值。這只是向您表明這不是一次性產品。他們不是——無論如何，對我們來說，這與 Shopify 上的美妝或 T 卹無關。這是關於他們購買的所有東西，我們在上個季度售罄。

The transactions per active customer also ticked up pretty meaningfully sequentially as well. Last one real quick. Your Australian-listed or formerly Australian-listed competitors may not have seen some strong results recently. And you mentioned M&A. I imagine there's a lot of concern for the smaller players in accessing capital and seeing growth slow. Can you just talk a little bit and give a little color on your M&A appetite?

每個活躍客戶的交易量也按順序大幅增加。最後一個真快。您在澳大利亞上市或以前在澳大利亞上市的競爭對手最近可能沒有看到一些強勁的業績。你提到了併購。我想小型企業在獲得資本和看到增長緩慢方面存在很多擔憂。您能否簡單談談您的併購興趣？

I don't want to embarrass person, but I got a fantastic piece of advice when I asked a friendly investor how to think about M&A. So ask yourself, would this be asset best off if it's owned by Affirm? And obviously, there's some limit to it. So we think we can manage anything, but there are definitely things that are very accretive to the business. If we can find something in the space or near the space that is better off owned by us and operated by us, I think we will take it very seriously now that the prices have normalized, and we do have a very clear road to profitability and have quite a significant cash position.

我不想讓別人難堪，但當我問一位友好的投資者如何看待併購時，我得到了一個絕妙的建議。所以問問自己，如果它由 Affirm 擁有，這將是最好的資產嗎？顯然，它有一些限制。所以我們認為我們可以管理任何事情，但肯定有一些事情對業務非常有利。如果我們能在空間或空間附近找到更適合我們擁有並由我們運營的東西，我認為現在價格已經正常化，我們會非常認真地對待它，而且我們確實有非常明確的盈利之路和擁有相當可觀的現金頭寸。

Maybe slightly more technical way of thinking about what we're looking for, there's a bunch of really good ideas in this space. Buy now pay later is this really wide surface. I call it honest finance because I'm an idealist. I think you can think of it as a nonrevolving credit. There's 10 different ways of calling it. But this idea that it's too confusing to borrow money and yet credit is really important, it's a simple idea, but it seems that its time has finally come.

也許稍微更技術性地思考我們正在尋找的東西，在這個領域有很多非常好的想法。現在購買以後付款是這個真正廣泛的表面。我稱之為誠實金融，因為我是一個理想主義者。我認為您可以將其視為非循環信用。有 10 種不同的調用方式。但是這個想法，借錢太糊塗，但信用真的很重要，這是一個簡單的想法，但似乎它的時代終於到來了。

It's actually really, really hard to do. And the hard part comes from all sorts of things. Like underwriting is really, really difficult. We have a lot of extremely smart people. I'm surrounded by pretty clever people, and I feel like a moron every time I talk to our credit team because they're really, really smart and good at what they do. And it's hard to hire that team. And it's really hard to scale it. It's hard to get it to be functioning.

真的，真的很難做到。困難的部分來自各種各樣的事情。就像承保真的非常非常困難。我們有很多非常聰明的人。我周圍都是非常聰明的人，每次與我們的信貸團隊交談時，我都覺得自己像個白痴，因為他們真的非常非常聰明，並且擅長他們所做的事情。而且很難僱傭那個團隊。而且真的很難擴大規模。很難讓它發揮作用。

And so there are plenty of smart entrepreneurs with really good ideas that built a really cool mousetrap, but they're just not that good at underwriting. And scale really allows you to hire even more of those people and train them on real data, and a decade of operating gives you a lot of really interesting use cases that you just wouldn't have seen if you're small.

因此，有很多聰明的企業家擁有非常好的想法，他們建造了一個非常酷的捕鼠器，但他們只是不擅長承保。規模確實可以讓你僱傭更多這樣的人，並用真實的數據對他們進行培訓，十年的運營為你提供了很多非常有趣的用例，如果你還小，你就不會看到這些用例。

And so we're looking for businesses that have amazing entrepreneurs, amazing ideas, amazing first signs of traction that would really benefit from being put on a platform that has exceptional underwriting, exceptional capital markets reach, at this point, very, very large user base, very large merchant base. So there's, we think, lots of opportunity. We'll be very judicious. We'll be extremely good stewards of shareholder capital. Not a thing we're going to execute imminently, but we're looking just because the market has now reduced some of the inflated valuations.

因此，我們正在尋找擁有令人驚嘆的企業家、令人驚嘆的想法、令人驚嘆的初步牽引跡象的企業，這些企業將真正受益於擁有出色承銷能力、出色資本市場覆蓋率的平台，在這一點上，非常非常大的用戶基地，非常大的商戶基地。所以，我們認為，有很多機會。我們會非常審慎。我們將成為股東資本的極好管家。我們不會立即執行的事情，但我們正在尋找只是因為市場現在已經降低了一些誇大的估值。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給管理層，以徵求任何進一步或結束的意見。

Thank you, everybody, for joining the call. We'll see you next quarter.

謝謝大家加入電話會議。我們下個季度見。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議和網絡直播到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並有一個美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。