Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在電話會議中,發言人討論了前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。他們提到了影響收入和垂直行業變化的因素。演講者強調了信用管理和滿足期望的重要性。

他們討論了年利率上限、費用以及 GMV 指南的看法的影響。該公司提高了全年指引並保持樂觀。他們提到了直接存款功能的正面成果以及 Shopify 合作夥伴關係的成功。

演講者談到了 0% 促銷活動的增加和積分池的成長。他們提到了 Affirm 卡的用途和好處。該公司在整體貸款銷售方面取得了成功,並優先考慮成長和資本效率。他們預計沖銷率不會受到 Affirm 卡的影響。

該公司正在考慮開放信用卡並計劃激勵信用卡的使用。他們對卡的發展感到正面。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. Welcome to the Affirm Holdings, Inc. Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Following the speakers' remarks, we will open the lines for your questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website for a reasonable period of time after the call.

    午安.歡迎參加 Affirm Holdings, Inc. 2024 財年第二季財報電話會議。發言人發言結束後,我們將開始提問。謹此提醒,我們正在對本次電話會議進行錄音,電話會議的重播將在電話會議結束後的合理時間內在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Zane Keller, Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

    我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Zane Keller。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Zane Keller

    Zane Keller

  • Thank you, operator. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone listening that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties including those set forth in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our Investor Relations website. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and the company does not assume any obligation or intent to update them, except as required by law.

    謝謝你,接線生。在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性,這些風險和不確定性可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的情況,本公司不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務或意圖,除非法律要求。

  • In addition, today's call may include non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to, and not a substitute for, GAAP financial measures. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings supplement slide deck, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

    此外,今天的電話會議可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施應被視為 GAAP 財務措施的補充,而不是替代。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標,可以在我們的收益補充幻燈片中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表,該投影片可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • Hosting today's call with me are Max Levchin, Affirm's Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Linford, Affirm's Chief Financial Officer. In line with our practice in prior quarters, we will begin with brief opening remarks from Max before proceeding immediately into questions and answers.

    與我一起主持今天電話會議的是 Affirm 創辦人兼執行長 Max Levchin;以及 Affirm 財務長 Michael Linford。按照我們前幾季的做法,我們將從馬克斯的簡短開場白開始,然後立即進行問答。

  • On that note, I will turn the call over to Max to begin.

    就此而言,我將把電話轉給馬克斯開始。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Zane. Thank you all for joining us today. We're excited to share the results of another great quarter. As is our custom, the better the results, the fewer words we use to comment on them. This time around, I feel good enough to go directly to the Q&A. Back to you, Zane.

    謝謝你,贊恩。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興分享另一個偉大季度的成果。按照我們的習慣,結果越好,我們用來評論的字就越少。這次,我感覺已經足夠了,可以直接進入問答環節。回到你身邊,贊恩。

  • Zane Keller

    Zane Keller

  • Thank you, Max. With that, we'll now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for our first question.

    謝謝你,麥克斯。現在,我們將回答您的問題。接線員,請接通我們的第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

  • Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

    Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could help us think through RLTC for the remaining 2 quarters of the year, sort of what are the drivers, puts and takes, variables that could impact our RLTC and drive underperformance or outperformance. How should we think about those kind of variables?

    我想知道您是否可以幫助我們思考今年剩餘 2 個季度的 RLTC,包括哪些驅動因素、看跌期權以及可能影響我們的 RLTC 並導致表現不佳或表現優異的變量。我們應該如何看待這些變數?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes. I think, obviously, if you're thinking in terms of percentage of GMV, there's a number of factors, mix and macro, the top of the list. If you're thinking about total dollars, then GMV on the platform was going to be the biggest driver of results there. In terms of the RLTC rate, the take rate on a percentage of GMV, it's really mix and macro. So the mix of business across our merchant base and the products that we offer there. And from a macro perspective, everything going on with consumers and rates would be there.

    是的。我認為,顯然,如果你考慮 GMV 的百分比,那麼有很多因素,組合和宏觀因素是最重要的。如果你考慮的是總美元,那麼平台上的 GMV 將是結果的最大驅動力。就 RLTC 率而言,即佔 GMV 的百分比,它確實是混合和宏觀的。因此,我們的商業基礎的業務組合以及我們在那裡提供的產品。從宏觀角度來看,消費者和利率方面發生的一切都會在那裡。

  • We really like the environment we're in right now. That's why we've updated our full year guidance like we have. And so we feel good about the back half of the year, RLTC margins as a percentage of GMV, and feel good about that because of the macro environment that we're in. And we -- as per the usual, we take the current macro signals, current levels of unemployment, current forward curve and bake goes into our assumptions. But obviously, there are scenarios where those could move one way or the other. That would change the outcome for us.

    我們真的很喜歡現在所處的環境。這就是為什麼我們更新了全年指引。因此,我們對今年下半年的 RLTC 利潤率佔 GMV 的百分比感到滿意,並且由於我們所處的宏觀環境而對此感到滿意。按照慣例,我們採用當前的我們的假設包括宏觀信號、當前失業率水平、目前遠期曲線及烘焙程度。但顯然,在某些情況下,這些可能會以一種或另一種方式發生。這將改變我們的結果。

  • Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

    Ramsey Clark El-Assal - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And a follow-up for me. On Slide 10, where you list out your GMV vertical mix, it looks like general merchandise has picked up quite a bit from travel and ticketing, or travel and ticketing has gone down and general merchandise gone up. Are there any drivers to call out there? And I guess, more broadly, can you just comment on performance across key verticals in there?

    好的。以及我的後續行動。在投影片 10 上,您列出了 GMV 垂直組合,看起來一般商品從旅行和票務中獲得了相當大的增長,或者旅行和票務下降了,而一般商品則上漲了。那裡有司機可以叫嗎?我想,更廣泛地說,您能評論一下關鍵垂直領域的表現嗎?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • So travel and ticketing is a very seasonal category. So a lot of folks book summer vacation travel in the first 2 calendar quarters, last 2 fiscal quarters of our year, and it tends to be lowest in terms of bookings in calendar quarters like Q2. And so we think there's a huge seasonality factor there. And for general merchandise, some of our largest merchant enterprise partners fall in that bucket. And as we continue to scale those, we will see lots of purchases there, and it's not unusual for that to be a category that spikes in around holiday season. There's a lot of holiday shopping that's done in those channels.

    所以旅行和票務是一個季節性很強的類別。因此,許多人在今年的前兩個日曆季度、最後兩個財政季度預訂暑假旅行,而在第二季度等日曆季度的預訂量往往是最低的。因此我們認為其中存在著巨大的季節性因素。對於一般商品,我們的一些最大的商業企業合作夥伴就屬於這一類。隨著我們繼續擴大這些規模,我們將看到大量的購買量,而且這一類別在假期期間激增並不罕見。在這些管道中進行了大量的假期購物。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey with Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

  • Andrew William Jeffrey - Director

    Andrew William Jeffrey - Director

  • Max, brevity is indeed the sister of talent, I'll make that very clear. So I've got a couple of questions just on GMV growth and tender share. As I recall, you've tightened the credit box about a year ago, and obviously, the back half of the fiscal year looks strong. Can you comment, either Max or Michael, just on kind of how underwriting and risk are factoring into that strength? And then the corollary, I guess, or the follow-on would be around tender share of your enterprise customers, and it appeared to be elevated during the holidays, and I just wonder if that's a sign of accelerating tender share to come or aspirational end of share growth?

    麥克斯,簡潔確實是才華的姊妹,我會說得很清楚。我有幾個關於 GMV 增長和投標份額的問題。我記得,大約一年前,你們收緊了信貸框架,顯然,本財年後半段看起來很強勁。馬克斯或邁克爾,您能否就承保和風險如何影響這種優勢發表評論?然後,我猜,或者後續的推論將圍繞企業客戶的招標份額,並且在假期期間似乎有所上升,我只是想知道這是否是招標份額加速到來或理想結束的跡象股票增長?

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Appreciate the comments, first of all. The underwriting settings, so the single most I would say, accelerated change we've conducted to our, as we call it, box, it was really more a 1.5 years ago than a year ago. April of '22 is when we saw real stress on the consumer, and we reacted to that sort of within the next 60 days or so. We've since really not done an enormous amount of significant steering. We changed marginal cutoffs on a merchant-by-merchant, category-by-category, product-by-product basis all the time and also change things like allowed terms as in durations, required down payments, et cetera.

    首先感謝評論。承保設置,所以我最想說的是,我們對我們所說的盒子進行了加速改變,它實際上比一年前更像是 1.5 年前。 22 年 4 月,我們看到消費者面臨真正的壓力,我們在接下來的 60 天內對此做出了反應。從那以後,我們確實沒有進行大量的重要指導。我們一直在逐一商家、逐一類別、逐一產品地改變邊際界限,也改變了允許的條款、期限、要求的首付等等。

  • So we managed credit very, very actively since sort of the beginning of time for us, but there's not been a major change to our posture in the last 1.5 years. The numbers that we printed just now are not an accident. We drove them to be what they are very, very deliberately. And I don't want anybody to sort of assume that we're hands off and the numbers just print themselves. It's a lot of work, and we care quite a lot where they end up. We have certain expectations we set with capital markets, and we intend to continue delivering those expectations. And so that's first and foremost. And that governs a lot of our metrics that are put to that.

    因此,從一開始我們就非常非常積極地管理信貸,但在過去 1.5 年裡我們的態度並沒有發生重大變化。我們剛才印製的數字並非偶然。我們非常非常刻意地驅使他們成為他們原本的樣子。我不希望任何人認為我們不干涉,數字會自動列印出來。這是一項繁重的工作,我們非常關心它們的最終結果。我們對資本市場設定了某些期望,我們打算繼續實現這些期望。這是首要的。這決定了我們為此制定的許多指標。

  • The tender share -- share of wallet as we go on internally has done really well over the holidays. We've generally been gaining wallet share, although the stories are different category-to-category, and in some cases, merchant-to-merchant. We feel very good about some of the things that we announced. Obviously, offline, we were not a noticeable player until recently in between the card and some of the online -- offline self-checkout kiosk was really powerful. And then just sort of call out one, particularly strong performance over the holidays, especially and overall in the last quarter, Shopify has just continued to perform extraordinarily.

    我們內部進行的招標份額——錢包份額在假期期間表現得非常好。我們總體上一直在獲得錢包份額,儘管不同類別的故事有所不同,在某些情況下,不同商家的故事也有所不同。我們對我們宣布的一些事情感覺非常好。顯然,在線下,我們直到最近才成為引人注目的參與者,直到最近,在卡和一些線上自助結帳亭之間,離線自助結帳亭確實很強大。然後,我要指出的是,假期期間的表現尤其強勁,尤其是上個季度的整體表現,Shopify 繼續表現出色。

  • The growth of that particular partnership is accelerating 3-plus years into the partnership. That set of products grew about twice the speed of the rest of Affirm. And so it's just been a story of success to success. And we still have a lot of things that we have not scaled out. They have their own offline aspirations that we're obviously very excited to be a part of, et cetera. And so it's a little bit of a -- and I'm giving a very long-winded answer here, but frequency for us is being where consumer shops. And share of tender comes as a consequence of being available and being able to support the various consumer needs as we encounter them.

    三年多來,這特定合作關係的發展正在加速。該系列產品的成長速度大約是 Affirm 其他產品的兩倍。所以這只是一個成功的故事。我們還有很多東西沒有橫向擴展。他們有自己的線下願望,我們顯然很高興能成為其中的一部分,等等。所以這有點——我在這裡給了一個非常冗長的答案,但我們的頻率是消費者購物的地方。投標份額的產生是因為我們能夠滿足我們遇到的各種消費者需求。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • And the only thing I'd add is we did with the 36% APR cap that we were able to get in place. We were able to be more expansionary in a number of places that is completely done now. And so we wouldn't expect any more volume benefit there, although there is still some margin benefit, we think that will come as the program continues to roll out and scale. But we wouldn't expect any more volume there because of 36%.

    我唯一要補充的是,我們設定了 36% 的年利率上限。我們能夠在許多地方進行更多的擴展,現在已經完全完成了。因此,我們預計不會有更多的銷售收益,儘管仍然有一些利潤收益,但我們認為隨著該計劃的繼續推出和規模化,這將會實現。但我們預計不會有更多交易量,因為 36%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Reggie Smith with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自雷吉史密斯與摩根大通的對話。

  • Reginald Lawrence Smith - Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst

    Reginald Lawrence Smith - Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter. I guess you kept your comments short. But I guess where were you most surprised? And this is a pretty big beat, and then I had a follow-up after that.

    恭喜本季。我猜你的評論很短。但我想你最驚訝的地方在哪裡?這是一個相當大的節奏,然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • We try to run a tight ship, so surprises are rarely a welcome thing and if they are too good. I think -- I mean I already called that out, but I thought Shopify as a company, appears to have done a fantastic job with their products, and we stand to support our partners there and have done it all together. Let's see what other surprises. I don't like surprises, Reggie. I feel like, at any sense, you surprised me there. I'm not going to like the outcome.

    我們試著把事情管理得嚴密,所以驚喜很少是受歡迎的事情,如果驚喜太大的話。我認為——我的意思是我已經指出了這一點,但我認為 Shopify 作為一家公司,似乎在其產品方面做得非常出色,我們將支持我們的合作夥伴,並共同完成這一切。讓我們看看還有哪些驚喜。我不喜歡驚喜,雷吉。無論如何,我覺得你讓我感到驚訝。我不會喜歡這樣的結果。

  • Actually, I'll give you one very surprising fact, which is a little bit of an inside view, but we had very noticeably accelerated our ability to ship software. And I had anticipated some of that, but I'm quite surprised about how productive the teams have been on the engineering side, on product side and design side, sort of percolates down to revenue. So generally speaking, I expected that we would rally around the goals, especially from sort of the low point of this time last year. But the -- if it's a turnaround, it's a much faster and more aggressive turnaround than I much expected.

    事實上,我會​​給你一個非常令人驚訝的事實,這有點內部觀點,但我們已經非常明顯地加快了我們交付軟體的能力。我已經預料到了其中的一些情況,但我對團隊在工程方面、產品方面和設計方面的生產力(某種程度上滲透到收入)感到非常驚訝。所以總的來說,我預計我們會圍繞目標團結起來,特別是從去年這個時候的低點開始。但是,如果這是一個轉變,那麼它的轉變比我預想的要快得多,也更積極。

  • Reginald Lawrence Smith - Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst

    Reginald Lawrence Smith - Computer Services & IT Consulting Analyst

  • Got it. And then just looking at the seasonal patterns of your margins, the back half of the year tends to be better than the front half of the year. And when I look at your full year guidance for your operating margin, I guess it implies -- I think in the third quarter, I think it implies a pretty substantial sequential increase in expenses below the RLTC line. Like what's driving that? And kind of where should we see that show up? Is it a marketing thing? Is it technology? My rough math was almost like $20 million of sequential increase. I'm not sure if that's right or not. But if you can comment on that a little bit, that would be helpful.

    知道了。然後,只要看看利潤率的季節性模式,下半年往往會比上半年好。當我查看你們對營業利潤率的全年指導時,我想這意味著——我認為在第三季度,我認為這意味著 RLTC 線以下的費用將出現相當大的連續增長。是什麼推動了這一點?我們應該在哪裡看到它出現?這是行銷的事嗎?是技術嗎?我粗略算了一下,環比增長幾乎是 2000 萬美元。我不確定這是否正確。但如果你能對此發表一點評論,那將會很有幫助。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes. We don't provide a specific guidance number for there. So sometimes the way in which we build our guidance can lead to a little bit of exaggeration on that as you calculate it. But that's right. And there's a couple of factors to think about.

    是的。我們沒有提供具體的指導號碼。因此,有時我們建立指導的方式可能會導致您在計算時有點誇大。但那是對的。有幾個因素需要考慮。

  • Firstly, we -- and this will sound very trivial, but I promise you it does actually end up becoming pretty big. We do expect there to be a lot more payroll tax associated with stock-based compensation in our first quarter, both because people have reset their tax obligations to -- with the new year, but also because the share price is higher. And both those 2 things will create a little bit of the sequential bump from quarter-to-quarter.

    首先,我們——這聽起來很微不足道,但我向你保證它實際上最終會變得相當大。我們確實預期第一季與股票薪酬相關的工資稅將大幅增加,這既是因為人們在新的一年中重新調整了納稅義務,也是因為股價上漲。這兩件事都會造成季度與季度之間的連續成長。

  • And then we remain really excited about the opportunities that are ahead for us. And so we're continuing to be thoughtful around where we should be adding resources to go build new products and chase the new opportunities. And I think the strength in this quarter's results with respect to our unit economics and operating efficiency give us license to be willing to add a little operating expense, whereas I think we've been very cautious to do that until we could demonstrate it.

    然後,我們對未來的機會仍然感到非常興奮。因此,我們將繼續思考應該在哪裡添加資源來開發新產品並追逐新機會。我認為本季的業績在我們的單位經濟效益和營運效率方面的優勢使我們願意增加一點營運費用,而我認為在我們能夠證明這一點之前我們一直非常謹慎地這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Dolev 和 Mizuho 的對話。

  • Dan Dolev - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Dolev - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great results. Congrats, Max and Mike and the team. Quick question -- I have 2 questions. The first one is on the guide. Obviously, the knee-jerk reaction, which we disagree with, was that the GMV guide is conservative. You "beat" by $700 million. You're increasing the guide by $1 billion for GMV. Like you sound very upbeat about the macro. Is it just conservatism?

    很好的結果。恭喜麥克斯和麥克以及團隊。快速提問——我有兩個問題。第一個在指南上。顯然,我們不同意的下意識反應是 GMV 指南是保守的。你「擊敗」了 7 億美元。您將 GMV 指南增加了 10 億美元。聽起來你對宏觀情勢非常樂觀。這只是保守主義嗎?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes. I mean, just like we have all year long for the full year, we're only providing a floor or our full year guide. And so we did take our floor up by $1 billion, which we think is a pretty big step up in what we would expect for the year. We remain very upbeat and excited about the opportunity.

    是的。我的意思是,就像我們全年都有全年一樣,我們只提供一個樓層或全年指南。因此,我們確實將底線增加了 10 億美元,我們認為這比我們今年的預期邁出了相當大的一步。我們對這個機會仍然非常樂觀和興奮。

  • Dan Dolev - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Dolev - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Got it. Yes. No, that's what it seems like. And then maybe one other question on kind of the direct deposit opportunity. You've had tremendous success with the card. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of the usage and frequency for the people that are doing the direct deposit into the card or into the Affirm app?

    知道了。是的。不,看起來就是這樣。然後也許還有一個關於直接存款機會的問題。您在這張卡上取得了巨大的成功。您能否談談您所看到的直接存入卡或 Affirm 應用程式的人們的使用情況和頻率?

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's a little early. We gave the future name about 60-something days ago. So it's a little early to brag about the results. But we feel very good about it. It's done in the early versions that it is about as well as we could hope for. We have a lot more things coming for that product. We're working on a couple of very specific things that are just required before you can really call yourself an account. But feel great.

    時間有點早了。大約 60 多天前,我們給了未來的名字。所以現在吹噓結果還太早。但我們對此感覺非常好。它在早期版本中的表現與我們所希望的一樣好。對於該產品,我們還有更多的東西。我們正在研究一些非常具體的事情,這些事情是您真正可以稱自己為帳戶之前所必需的。但感覺很棒。

  • It's definitely -- and I think I mentioned this before, but there's kind of 3 stages of Affirm usage. If you are not a cardholder, not account holder, regular user, your frequency is 4.5 transactions a year and grew again 20-plus percent year-on-year. But if you have a card that goes up quite a lot, it goes up about 4x, and then it grows again, again fairly significantly if you are an account holder. So very excited to give more accounts to people because that's ultimately a frequency driver for us as well.

    這絕對是——我想我之前已經提到過這一點,但肯定的用法有 3 個階段。如果您不是持卡人、帳戶持有人、一般用戶,您的交易頻率為每年 4.5 筆交易,並且比去年同期再次成長 20% 以上。但如果你的卡升值幅度很大,它會升值約 4 倍,然後再升值,如果你是帳戶持有人,升值幅度也會相當大。非常高興能為人們提供更多帳戶,因為這最終也是我們的頻率驅動因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Wildhack 與 Autonomous Research 的對話。

  • Robert Henry Wildhack - US Capital Markets Specialty Financials Analyst

    Robert Henry Wildhack - US Capital Markets Specialty Financials Analyst

  • Maybe I'll ask a question on volume in a different way. I think the shareholder letter called out 3 quarters of accelerating volume growth and then within the December quarter each month, accelerated too. The updated outlook for the rest of the year seems to point to a pretty healthy slowdown in the second half, half over half. So I wanted to get your thoughts on what might be driving that slowdown if there's anything specific that you're seeing.

    也許我會以不同的方式問一個關於音量的問題。我認為股東信中提到了三個季度銷售成長加速,然後在每個月的 12 月季度內也加速成長。今年剩餘時間的最新前景似乎表明下半年將出現相當健康的放緩,一半以上。因此,如果您看到任何具體情況,我想了解您對可能導致經濟放緩的原因的看法。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • So again, I think the full year outlook for us is just a floor. And so we've not given even a range or a ceiling to where we'd expect. So any calculation being done on Q4 is probably not getting to a midpoint. And any math you're doing on that number inclusive of our Q3 range is taking -- is probably squeezing that number quite a bit.

    再說一次,我認為我們的全年前景只是一個下限。因此,我們甚至沒有給出我們預期的範圍或上限。因此,對第四季度進行的任何計算可能都沒有達到中點。你對這個數字(包括我們的第三季範圍)所做的任何數學計算都可能會大大壓縮這個數字。

  • Separate from that, we had a really good Q2, right? And so the really strong second quarter isn't something that we would ever take and say that's a fundamental change of the business. That's something we would take credit for, be very happy with, but we'd be pretty cautious about how we would build up the outlook for the balance of the year and want to be mindful of all of the factors that can go into that. But there's nothing in our business that would suggest that we're slowing down right now.

    除此之外,我們有一個非常好的第二季度,對吧?因此,我們不會認為第二季的強勁表現是業務的根本性變化。這是我們值得讚揚的事情,對此我們感到非常滿意,但我們對如何建立今年餘下的前景持非常謹慎的態度,並希望留意所有可能影響這一結果的因素。但我們的業務沒有任何跡象表明我們現在正在放慢腳步。

  • Robert Henry Wildhack - US Capital Markets Specialty Financials Analyst

    Robert Henry Wildhack - US Capital Markets Specialty Financials Analyst

  • Okay. And then bigger picture, and I appreciate this may not be in play for this fiscal year, but how would you expect potential interest rate cuts to flow through to funding costs? And then strategically, would you want to drop those savings to the bottom line via higher RLTC margin or do something different?

    好的。然後是更大的前景,我意識到這可能不會在本財年發揮作用,但您預計潛在的降息將如何影響融資成本?然後從策略上講,您是否想透過提高 RLTC 利潤來將這些節省下來的資金降到底線,或者採取不同的措施?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • That's a great question. So whenever we think about a change in rates, we need to understand why the rates are moving. Certainly, if the rates are moving in response to other stress in the economy, specifically employment, then it's not a one-for-one benefit. But if you hold all other factors constant, then a decline in rates would help us on the RLTC line. We would seek to continue to run the business in the 3% to 4% range that we've talked about really since we've gone public. And if we were able to be earning at the high end or above that, we would seek to reinvest that in products to engage and reengage -- acquire new users and reengage them.

    這是一個很好的問題。因此,每當我們考慮利率變化時,我們都需要了解利率變化的原因。當然,如果利率的變化是為了應對經濟中的其他壓力,特別是就業壓力,那麼這並不是一對一的好處。但如果您保持所有其他因素不變,那麼利率下降將對我們的 RLTC 線有所幫助。我們將尋求繼續在 3% 至 4% 的範圍內經營業務,這是我們上市以來一直在討論的問題。如果我們能夠獲得高端或更高的收入,我們將尋求將其重新投資於產品以吸引和重新吸引——獲取新用戶並重新吸引他們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

  • Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • So you highlighted in the shareholder letter, I think, that 2/3 of the revenue growth in the quarter was from interest income. Is it fair to say that's also the revenue line item that surprised you most to the upside relative to your guidance? And just curious how much of the revenue guidance range for the fiscal year is coming from the interest income line. You guys have obviously been doing a really good job on that side of the equation.

    因此,我認為您在股東信中強調,本季收入成長的 2/3 來自利息收入。可以公平地說,這也是相對於您的指導而言最令您驚訝的收入項目嗎?只是好奇本財年的收入指導範圍有多少是來自利息收入線。顯然你們在這方面做得非常好。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • No. Certainly, we're happy to have the unit economics we do have, but I think we're probably more surprised with the healthy merchant fee growth. Whenever merchant fees outpaced GMV growth, it creates pretty good flow through to the full P&L in a way that's outsized. I think some of the strong performance we had above our expectations around RLTC and the flow-through for the full P&L was actually driven by the really healthy merchant line.

    不。當然,我們很高興擁有我們所擁有的單位經濟效益,但我認為我們可能對商家費用的健康成長更感到驚訝。每當商家費用超過 GMV 成長時,就會以超乎尋常的方式創造相當好的流量,流向完整的損益。我認為,我們在 RLTC 方面的一些強勁表現超出了我們的預期,而且整個損益表的流通實際上是由真正健康的商業線推動的。

  • Yes, the total aggregate revenue growth wasn't there. But remember, against that, interest income growth is a pretty steep rise in funding costs, and that's driven by both the balance sheet growth as well as the higher benchmark rates that we're in this year. And in fact, interest funding costs grew faster than interest income. And so while that was important for us to be able to get the business where it is, it's also the case that -- we don't see that as the real tailwind here. We're still managing through a rate environment that's substantially lower last year than this year. And as those things abate, then we will begin to see the benefit end of the future.

    是的,總收入成長並不存在。但請記住,與此相反,利息收入成長是融資成本的急劇上升,這是由資產負債表成長以及今年基準利率上升所推動的。事實上,利息融資成本的成長速度快於利息收入的成長速度。因此,雖然這對我們能夠讓業務達到目前的水平很重要,但情況也是如此——我們並不認為這是真正的順風車。我們仍在應對去年遠低於今年的利率環境。隨著這些事情的減少,我們將開始看到未來的好處。

  • Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Jason Alan Kupferberg - MD in US Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. No, that makes sense. And then just like a 2-part question on GMV. What's your latest expectation for Affirm card GMV this fiscal year? And then any comments you might have around January GMV trends. I'm kind of curious because we heard from others that card-present volumes suffered because of the severe weather. So just wondering if your business benefited at all from that?

    好的。不,這是有道理的。然後就像關於 GMV 的兩部分問題一樣。您對本財政年度 Affirm 卡 GMV 的最新預期是多少?然後是您對 1 月 GMV 趨勢可能有的任何評論。我有點好奇,因為我們從其他人那裡聽說,卡片數量因惡劣天氣而受到影響。那麼只是想知道您的企業是否從中受益?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • So we've not given any outlook for the card, and I won't now. What I would say in the letter, we talked briefly about the seasonality of the card, and I think this is a really important thing for everybody to pay attention to, which is the card had really strong growth from Q1 to Q2. We would estimate that about half of that growth in card volume was actually underlying seasonality and the other half was growth in the card which just means as you think through where the volume should be for the card in the balance of the year. Just keep in mind the Q2 starting point is benefited by a pretty big step up from Q1 to Q2 from seasonality as consumers do spend more in the holiday season. And we're still early enough with the card. Fortunately, we're not seeing things like weather impact our card performance.

    所以我們沒有對這張卡的前景做出任何展望,我現在也不會。我在信中要說的是,我們簡要討論了該卡的季節性,我認為這是每個人都需要關注的非常重要的事情,即該卡從第一季度到第二季度的增長非常強勁。我們估計,大約一半的卡交易量增長實際上是季節性的,另一半是卡的增長,這意味著當你思考卡的交易量在一年中的剩餘時間應該在哪裡時。請記住,第二季的起點受益於從第一季到第二季的季節性大幅提升,因為消費者在假期季節確實花費更多。而且我們還早點拿到這張卡了。幸運的是,我們沒有看到天氣等因素影響我們的卡片性能。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jill Shea with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Jill Shea。

  • Jill Elizabeth Glaser Shea - Analyst

    Jill Elizabeth Glaser Shea - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could provide us an update on the Shopify partnership and any stats that you could share with us, that would be great.

    我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 Shopify 合作夥伴關係的最新資訊以及您可以與我們分享的任何統計數據,那就太好了。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's one of the highlights of this last quarter is going unbelievably strong. It accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter. The program is over 3 years old and the fact that it's still picking up steam is just great, and they've been extraordinary partners to us and nothing but wonderful things to say about [Tobi] and [CAS] in Arlington team there, and there's just been nothing but excellent in both our execution and the partnership that we had. I think already drop that stat.

    這是上個季度的亮點之一,它的強勁勢頭令人難以置信。它連續第四個季度加速。這個計畫已經存在了3 年多了,事實上它仍在不斷發展,這真是太棒了,他們一直是我們非凡的合作夥伴,對於阿靈頓團隊的[Tobi] 和[CAS] 來說,除了精彩的事情之外,沒有什麼可說的,而且我們的執行力和合作夥伴關係都非常出色。我想已經放棄這個統計數據了。

  • But the program at Shopify grew twice the speed of the overall Affirm growth on the GMV side of things. They have aspirations off-line that they're going after quite strongly and there's still a lot of synergies and what we're doing now there. We have a whole host of programs we're contemplating going forward. So lots of with the job feeling very good. The fact that it's accelerating suggests that there's just more growth to be had for both of us.

    但就 GMV 而言,Shopify 專案的成長速度是 Affirm 整體成長速度的兩倍。他們在線下有強烈的願望,並且仍然有很多協同效應以及我們現在正在做的事情。我們正在考慮推進一整套計劃。所以很多人的工作感覺都很好。事實上,它正在加速,這表明我們雙方都有更多的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

    James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • Great. Thank you very much this afternoon, guys, for all the time. I wanted to ask on 0% promotions. It seemed like, at least anecdotally, those increase some, particularly towards the end of the December quarter. And I think in your supplement, you showed that 0% long duration merchant rates had picked up. Can you talk a little bit about like what's driving that merchant rate tick up? Is it just longer duration generally within that long group? And how should we think about that both in terms of impact on RLTC margin, but also in terms of the type of customer and that you're bringing in with those promotions? Just wondering if that's enough to move the needle on some of these other metrics.

    偉大的。夥計們,今天下午非常感謝你們一直以來的支持。我想問一下 0% 促銷。至少從傳聞來看,這些數字似乎有所增加,特別是在 12 月季度末。我認為在您的補充中,您表明 0% 長期商家費率已經上升。您能談談是什麼推動了商家費率上漲嗎?只是在那個長組中通常持續時間更長嗎?我們應該如何考慮這對 RLTC 利潤的影響,以及客戶類型以及您透過這些促銷活動帶來的影響?只是想知道這是否足以推動其他一些指標的發展。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes, it's a good question. The as rates have gone up, any of our longer-term 0% programs have needed higher merchant fees and I really think there's really not much more to it than that. So it's the mix and tied to benchmark rates. In terms of the customers that we bring in, it does skew a little bit higher on the credit spectrum when you do those kind of products. But given the high levels of repeat, it's not really going to change the average as much at Affirm. We, of course, have been, we were very active. We're meeting our merchant partners where we could in providing anything promotionally in the second quarter, and we continue to do that. But it's it didn't change an awful lot from the prior quarter in terms of the total mix. So I wouldn't -- I don't really think there's a fundamental trend there.

    是的,這是一個好問題。隨著利率上升,我們任何長期的 0% 計劃都需要更高的商家費用,我真的認為沒有什麼比這更多的了。所以它是混合的並且與基準利率掛鉤。就我們引進的客戶而言,當您生產此類產品時,信用範圍確實會偏高一些。但考慮到重複率很高,它不會真正改變 Affirm 的平均水平。當然,我們一直都非常活躍。我們正在與我們的商業合作夥伴會面,以便在第二季度提供任何促銷活動,我們將繼續這樣做。但就整體組合而言,與上一季相比並沒有太大變化。所以我不會——我真的不認為那裡有一個基本趨勢。

  • James Eugene Faucette - MD

    James Eugene Faucette - MD

  • Got it. Got it. And then I wanted to ask, maybe it's a little bit convoluted question, but you're obviously growing the Affirm card really nicely kind of that run rate that you talked about seems to be around 100,000 cards a quarter or I'm sorry, a month. How should we think about is, a, I'm wondering how we should think about the availability or the credit pool available and how that's growing by comparison, right? Because as you send out cards, people will use it, you said most of it of that is interest bearing. So some of that available credit gets absorbed, but then there's new credit growth in that pool as you add more cards. So just how should we think about that potential to buy pool growing vis-a-vis the growth in cards. Hopefully, that question makes sense.

    知道了。知道了。然後我想問,也許這是一個有點複雜的問題,但顯然你確實很好地發展了肯定卡,你談到的運行率似乎是每季度 100,000 張卡左右,或者我很抱歉,a月。我們應該如何考慮,a,我想知道我們應該如何考慮可用性或可用的信用池,以及相比之下它是如何增長的,對嗎?因為你發卡了,人們就會用它,你說大部分都是生息的。因此,一些可用信用會被吸收,但是當您添加更多卡片時,該池中會有新的信用增長。那我們應該如何考慮購買池增長相對於卡牌增長的潛力。希望這個問題是有道理的。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to try to answer, but feel free to tell me that I'm answering their own questions. So I think you're asking -- I guess the way I'm interpreting this overall, at least try to answer is, does the card availability to consumers create new pools available transactions for us to take on? And the answer is yes. Our off-line usage with the card versus without the card is drastically different. And so all of those transactions are entirely incremental. It's not really all that magical why transactions of the cardholders are significantly higher than average transactions for non-cardholder from user, it's because these people are for, they're more committed because they requested a card. And two, they're bringing it to stores. So it's it just touches a larger open field opportunity.

    我將嘗試回答,但請隨意告訴我,我正在回答他們自己的問題。所以我認為你在問——我想我總體上解釋這個問題的方式,至少嘗試回答是,消費者的卡片可用性是否為我們創造了新的可用交易池?答案是肯定的。帶卡和不帶卡的離線使用有很大不同。因此,所有這些交易都是完全增量的。為什麼持卡人的交易量明顯高於非持卡人的平均交易量,這並不是那麼神奇,因為這些人是因為他們要求一張卡而更加忠誠。第二,他們將其帶到商店。所以它只是觸及了更大的開放領域機會。

  • In terms of underwriting and sort of our exposure on the credit side, et cetera, there's no change in the sense that we -- and we talked about this before, but for the longest time, our sort of calling card in the underwriting world was this thing called ITAC, which is the internal transactional Affirm credit score. And that allowed us to do really precise underwriting at the transactional level. Some number of quarters ago, we have augmented that with a user credit score which allows us to underwrite both sort of a more holistic consumer in addition to every individual traction. We still underwrite every transaction, we still reserve the right to say we cannot lend money to you. but we have a score that we feel very good about in our ability to say what's the overall capacity to borrow and pay us back and willingness to do so.

    就承保和我們在信貸方面的風險敞口等而言,我們之前討論過這一點,但在很長一段時間內,我們在承保領域的名片是這個東西叫ITAC,就是內部交易確認信用評分。這使我們能夠在交易層面進行真正精確的核保。幾個季度前,我們透過用戶信用評分增強了這一點,這使我們能夠為更全面的消費者以及每個個人的吸引力提供保障。我們仍然承保每筆交易,我們仍然保留說我們不能藉錢給您的權利。但我們對自己的得分感到非常滿意,因為我們有能力判斷借貸和償還貸款的整體能力以及這樣做的意願。

  • And we lend on the card and off the card using the same set of scores and the same set of variables and limits. And so you can borrow from Affirm using an integrated point-of-sale solution you can borrow on the card with two different modalities of borrowing on the card, but all of it goes against the same set of variables and the same set of observed behaviors that governs our ability to approve the next transaction.

    我們使用相同的分數、相同的變數和限制來進行卡內和卡外貸款。因此,您可以使用整合的銷售點解決方案從 Affirm 借錢,您可以透過兩種不同的卡借方式在卡上借錢,但所有這些都違背同一組變數和同一組觀察到的行為決定了我們批准下一筆交易的能力。

  • The thing that's created about the card is that it's optimized for convenience in everything like multiland checkout environments all the way to online shopping. So it's an expansion of opportunity, but not an expansion of our willingness to take on more risk I think that answers it, but I'm happy to provide a lot more details if you like.

    這張卡的優點在於,它針對各種便利性進行了優化,例如多區域結帳環境一直到線上購物。因此,這是機會的擴大,但不是我們承擔更多風險的意願的擴大,我認為這可以回答這個問題,但如果您願意,我很樂意提供更多詳細資訊。

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • I think the other thing to say is I don't think we're anywhere near the limits on what we think we would think about exposure limits for these users and we're nowhere near some sort of cap there for the population. We think there's a lot of frequency that we can drive with the existing users.

    我認為另一件事是,我認為我們對這些用戶的暴露限制還沒有達到我們認為的極限,而且我們也遠遠沒有達到對人口的某種上限。我們認為我們可以提高現有用戶的使用頻率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Hecht with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自約翰·赫克特和傑弗里斯的對話。

  • John Hecht - MD & Equity Analyst

    John Hecht - MD & Equity Analyst

  • Like just thinking about kind of the appetite for selling versus retaining the loans that you guys generated this year, I mean, you have interest rate, at least the curve is going down. It looks like sales execution is getting better, but you guys had an ABS transaction, I think, yesterday and the execution there was good. So how do we just think about kind of balance sheet movement versus marketplace movement over the course of the year?

    就像只考慮出售與保留今年產生的貸款的興趣一樣,我的意思是,你有利率,至少曲線正在下降。看起來銷售執行力越來越好,但我認為你們昨天進行了 ABS 交易,執行力很好。那麼,我們該如何看待一年中資產負債表的變動與市場的變動呢?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. So we did price an ABS deal, and we did so at an all-in cost of capital, 100 basis points lower than a deal we did in December. So in a very short period of time, you're seeing the market really give us credit for that. And that, we think, is a really healthy sign for the capital system and ecosystem overall. And we think is a reflection of both an improved macro outlook for everybody, but for us, more specifically, the disciplined approach to credit that we've taken over the past year is getting valued we think, in the debt capital markets.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。因此,我們確實對 ABS 交易進行了定價,而且我們的總資本成本比 12 月的交易低了 100 個基點。因此,在很短的時間內,您會看到市場確實對此給予了認可。我們認為,這對整個資本體系和生態系統來說是一個非常健康的跡象。我們認為,這反映了每個人宏觀前景的改善,但對我們來說,更具體地說,我們認為,在債務資本市場上,我們過去一年採取的嚴格信貸方法正在受到重視。

  • And so we feel very strong about that. When we do the revolving ABS deals like the one we just did our [248] deal, those do end up on the balance sheet. And so while we do think about that as a really important funding channel, it isn't off balance sheet. Our off-balance sheet strategies involve mostly selling whole loans, although we do some non-revolving some term securitizations. With respect to the whole loan sales, we feel really excited about both the existing partners expanding and the pipeline of new opportunities that we have. Those conversations have gone very well. I think very consistent with the reaction that the ABS market has had. There's real value being given to us for the kind of credit outcomes that we've driven. And frankly, the yield that we put into the asset has allowed us to continue to be able to sell at prices that aren't really good for us.

    所以我們對此感覺非常強烈。當我們進行循環 ABS 交易時,就像我們剛剛進行的 [248] 交易一樣,這些交易最終會出現在資產負債表上。因此,雖然我們確實認為這是一個非常重要的融資管道,但它並不在資產負債表之外。我們的表外策略主要涉及出售全部貸款,儘管我們進行了一些非循環的某些定期證券化。就整個貸款銷售而言,我們對現有合作夥伴的擴張和我們擁有的新機會感到非常興奮。這些談話進行得非常順利。我認為與 ABS 市場的反應非常一致。我們所推動的信貸成果為我們帶來了真正的價值。坦白說,我們投入資產的收益率使我們能夠繼續以對我們來說不太有利的價格出售。

  • As is always the case, and we've said since day 1, we don't have one strategy that's better than the other. The things that we do are first and foremost, enable the growth in the business, and I'm extremely proud of the way the team has been able to support the capital program over the past year through all the volatility remaining enabling all the growth that we've delivered. The second priority is to deliver our unit economics. Clearly, if we're running the 3% to 4% range like we did this past quarter, we feel very strong about that. And then we begin to want to manage the capital efficiency of the program. That's the third piece. And obviously, whole loan sales are more efficient but it's the third of the three priorities. And so we wouldn't really want to overuse that lever.

    一如既往,我們從第一天起就說過,我們沒有一種策略比另一種策略更好。我們所做的事情首先是促進業務成長,我對團隊在過去一年中能夠支持資本計劃的方式感到非常自豪,克服了仍然存在的所有波動,從而實現了所有增長我們已經交付了。第二要務是實現我們的單位經濟效益。顯然,如果我們像上個季度一樣運行 3% 到 4% 的範圍,我們對此感覺非常強烈。然後我們開始想要管理該計劃的資本效率。這是第三塊。顯然,整個貸款銷售效率更高,但它是三個優先事項中的第三個。所以我們真的不想過度使用這個槓桿。

  • And then the last comment is each of our capital strategies really exists and reinforce one another. And so you really won't see us pivot to one or the other. We're going to continue to scale all of our channels. That means continued ABS execution, continued forward flow and continued use of our warehouse lines.

    最後一點是,我們的每一項資本策略都確實存在並且相互加強。所以你真的不會看到我們轉向其中一個。我們將繼續擴大我們所有的管道。這意味著繼續執行 ABS、繼續向前流動以及繼續使用我們的倉庫線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題來自凱文·巴克和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So there was a little bit of a tick up in the net charge-off rate in the quarter. It seems like you built reserves last quarter that may have preempted the charge-off coming through or could be partially seasonality as well. Is there anything to point out there? And would you expect that charge-off rate to drift lower just given you're seeing a larger portion of GMV being driven by Affirm card?

    因此,本季的淨沖銷率略有上升。您似乎在上個季度建立了儲備,這可能會搶佔沖銷的先機,或者也可能是部分季節性的。有什麼需要指出的嗎?考慮到 GMV 的大部分是由 Affirm 卡驅動的,您是否預計沖銷率會降低?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • No. I don't think the card is going to drive different credit outcomes for the whole portfolio. I think the level of repeat usage might where you do see better credit outcomes on repeat users overall, but I don't think the card is big enough really to affect the total portfolio numbers yet. Obviously, when it gets much larger, it will begin to have a more material impact. But for now, I think it's small enough and yes, there's really nothing to point to specifically on the charge-offs.

    不。我認為該卡不會為整個投資組合帶來不同的信貸結果。我認為重複使用的程度可能會讓你確實看到重複用戶整體上更好的信用結果,但我認為這張卡的規模還不足以真正影響投資組合的總數。顯然,當它變得更大時,它將開始產生更大的實質影響。但就目前而言,我認為它已經足夠小了,是的,在沖銷方面確實沒有什麼可特別指出的。

  • Again, I think about our charge-off policy, we charge off at 120 days. Delinquencies once they get to past 60 or 90 days are overwhelmingly likely to go towards charge-offs. So we have a pretty good sense of that and full allowance at all times to handle the future charge-offs that we estimate.

    我再次考慮我們的沖銷政策,我們的沖銷期限為 120 天。一旦拖欠超過 60 或 90 天,絕大多數可能會被沖銷。因此,我們對此有很好的認識,並且始終有充足的準備金來處理我們估計的未來沖銷。

  • Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin James Barker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I think you mentioned that you were leaning in a little bit last quarter. Are you opening up the credit box to attract more users. It seems like it's an opportune time to do that just given your acceleration here and profitability that's being generated?

    我想你提到過上個季度你有一點傾斜。您是否打開信用箱來吸引更多用戶?考慮到您在這裡的加速和正在產生的盈利能力,現在似乎是這樣做的好時機?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • Yes. I think the strong units give us permission to do that more than anything. So we talked about 3% to 4% in the revenue less transaction cost as a percentage of GMV. That's the real constraint for us. And so if we're in that range, we can continue to be very aggressive on acquiring and reengaging new users. And that's really the constraint much more so than anything else.

    是的。我認為強大的單位給了我們這樣做的許可,這比任何事情都重要。所以我們討論了收入減去交易成本佔 GMV 的 3% 到 4%。這對我們來說是真正的限制。因此,如果我們處於這個範圍內,我們可以繼續非常積極地獲取和重新吸引新用戶。這確實是比其他任何因素都更重要的限制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ng with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Michael Ng。

  • Michael Ng - Research Analyst

    Michael Ng - Research Analyst

  • I just have two, first, a housekeeping question. Could you just help explain the uptick in the merchant fee rates for the long core zeros and are there any initiatives or mix dynamics that may affect that going forward? And then second, just a bigger-picture question. Transactions per active have obviously been growing 4.4% this last quarter. You're also seeing really strong repeat customers. What does that tell you about the loyalty or engagement of customers and the durability about the installed base of users? Are these customers using this because it's become more habitual and it's a better experience? Or is it out of a necessity of credit?

    我只有兩個問題,第一,一個內務問題。您能否幫助解釋一下長期核心零的商家費率的上升,以及是否有任何舉措或混合動態可能會影響未來的發展?第二,只是一個更大的問題。上個季度,每位活躍用戶的交易量顯然增加了 4.4%。您還會看到非常強大的回頭客。這對客戶的忠誠度或參與度以及用戶群的持久性有何影響?這些客戶使用此功能是否是因為它變得更加習慣並且體驗更好?還是出於信用的需要?

  • Michael A. Linford - CFO

    Michael A. Linford - CFO

  • So on the first question, it really is just a function of the mix in our business. And that's always been true for merchant rates. We always talk about merchant fee rates as being mix driven. That's why we began breaking it out in the supplement. The slight tick-up you see on one of the categories is really just a function of mix within that category, but also as duration goes up, so does the price, especially in this rate environment, where it's pretty duration sensitive in terms of the price you charge. I don't -- again, I don't think there's a broader trend to be read into there. And on the frequency question, I'll let Max answer that.

    因此,關於第一個問題,這實際上只是我們業務組合的一個函數。對於商家費率來說始終如此。我們總是將商家費率視為混合驅動的。這就是我們開始在增刊中將其分解的原因。您在其中一個類別上看到的輕微上漲實際上只是該類別內混合的函數,而且隨著期限的增加,價格也會上漲,特別是在這種利率環境下,就期限而言,它對期限相當敏感。您收取的價格。我不會——再說一遍,我認為沒有更廣泛的趨勢可供解讀。關於頻率問題,我會讓麥克斯來回答。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I think it's a reflection of the fact that the product is becoming more widely available more than anything. I think as we sign up some of the partnerships and expand them, the Shopify reference I made earlier, it does result in wider availability. The product is popular. It's well liked by the users. One of our top questions in customer service is why isn't Brand X supporting Affirm right now, and we work very hard to make sure there are fewer and fewer of those.

    我認為這反映了這樣一個事實:該產品變得越來越廣泛可用。我認為,當我們簽署一些合作關係並擴大它們時,我之前提到的 Shopify 參考資料確實會帶來更廣泛的可用性。該產品很受歡迎。深受使用者喜愛。我們在客戶服務方面的首要問題之一是為什麼 Brand X 現在不支援 Affirm,我們非常努力地確保這樣的情況越來越少。

  • And so as we become more available, also as we become available offline in the form of the card as well as some of the integrations that we've done, you'll naturally see more transactional velocity and frequency increase. The product is a better product in my highly biased opinion than that of a credit card and credit utilization goes up broadly, I think we are the unter beneficiaries of that usage given the chance or choice, consumers opt in for more Affirm spend than private card spend and they're rewarded by having no late fees, no compounding interest, all the good things that would bring.

    因此,當我們變得更加可用時,當我們以卡片的形式離線使用以及我們所做的一些整合時,您自然會看到更多的交易速度和頻率增加。在我高度偏見的觀點中,該產品是比信用卡更好的產品,並且信用利用率廣泛上升,我認為,如果有機會或選擇,我們是該用途的次要受益者,消費者選擇比私人卡更多的確認支出他們花錢後會得到回報,沒有滯納金,沒有複利,所有這些都會帶來好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Bauch with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的安德魯·鮑赫 (Andrew Bauch)。

  • Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

  • Excuse me if this has already been asked, but I just want to get an update on what you've seen with a Affirm card usage. And anything that surprised you another 3 months into its evolution around behaviors or categories? Just anything broadly around that would be great.

    如果已經有人問過這個問題,請原諒,我只是想了解您在確認卡使用方面所看到的最新情況。圍繞行為或類別的演變又過去了 3 個月,有什麼讓您感到驚訝的事情嗎?任何廣泛的東西都會很棒。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's going really well. You can see in the supplement that we are continuing to grow it. From my point of view, for what it's worth, we're growing it cautiously for a couple of good reasons. One, it's a new mode of operation, which means that the downstream services such as customer service, dispute resolution, merchant disputes, et cetera, also has to scale. So we're going to grow it deliberately for a little while longer before we feel that we've learned all the important muscle memories of how to handle various conflicts that inevitably occur in commerce, et cetera. And so we feel very good about the growth. We have many, many more turns on potentially increasing that.

    一切進展順利。您可以在補充中看到我們正在繼續發展它。從我的角度來看,就其價值而言,我們出於幾個充分的理由謹慎地種植它。第一,這是一種新的營運模式,這意味著下游的客戶服務、糾紛解決、商家糾紛等服務也必須規模化。因此,在我們覺得我們已經學會瞭如何處理商業等中不可避免地發生的各種衝突的所有重要肌肉記憶之前,我們將刻意地延長它一段時間。因此,我們對成長感到非常滿意。我們還有很多很多的機會可以增加這一點。

  • In terms of surprises, things all generally gone to plan, there is plenty more to do on reasons to use the card more often. We talked about at the investor event last year were dangerously close to actually making good on it. We have reward programs in mind that give people reasons to use the card for all transactions, not just considered purchases. There's plenty to do with tight integration between Affirm card and Affirm account, which we've done a couple of things with, but there's still more features to come. And so -- and from my point of view, the card is still very, very early. There's just a long road map of things to do there, both on the frequency of use basis as well as modalities of making sure that consumers really understand the full power that it brings. And then once we feel that, that's really all figured out, we have a lot more growth to enable there when we see that is the right now to do it.

    就驚喜而言,事情通常都按計劃進行,為了更頻繁地使用該卡,還有很多事情要做。我們在去年的投資人活動中談到,我們已經非常接近實際兌現這項承諾。我們制定了獎勵計劃,讓人們有理由使用該卡進行所有交易,而不僅僅是考慮到的購買。 Affirm 卡和 Affirm 帳戶之間的緊密整合還有很多工作要做,我們已經做了一些事情,但還有更多功能即將推出。所以——從我的角度來看,這張牌還非常非常早。那裡有一個漫長的路線圖要做,無論是在使用頻率的基礎上還是在確保消費者真正了解它所帶來的全部力量的方式上。然後,一旦我們覺得這一切都已經解決了,當我們看到現在正是這樣做的時候,我們就有更多的成長空間可以實現。

  • Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

  • And is that next leg of growth just a function of then you finally get the green light to put the extra leg of sales and marketing dollars into the card and to the -- really the solution in order to kind of find that next leg of growth? Or is it just moving further into the...

    下一個成長階段是否只是一個功能,然後您最終獲得批准,將額外的銷售和行銷資金投入到卡中,並且真正找到解決方案,以便找到下一個成長階段?或者它只是進一步進入......

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's really -- there's -- I don't anticipate any marketing dollars allocated towards distributing the card in any foreseeable future. It's not any budget. That is not how it's going to get grown. And so today, to get the card, you have to have been in a Affirm transactor before. You have to be in good standing, you have to be fairly far down the affirmed journey and then you have to react to one of the -- no, fairly visible sort of adverts when we say, "Hey, do you want to use the Affirm card? We really think you should try it, you're eligible " So we've marketed it without too much restraints, although it's still being kept to a higher credit quality standard than the overall Affirm.

    確實,我預計在可預見的將來不會分配任何行銷資金用於分發該卡。這不是任何預算。這不是它成長的方式。因此,今天,要獲得該卡,您必須之前使用過 Affirm 交易者。你必須有良好的信譽,你必須在所確定的旅程中走得相當遠,然後當我們說“嘿,你想使用Affirm 卡?我們真的認為你應該嘗試一下,你有資格“所以我們在營銷時沒有太多限制,儘管它仍然保持比整體Affirm 更高的信用品質標準。

  • So we're still tilting the scale a little bit in our favor in terms of consumers that get the card offers are not quite at the same level of cutoff as everybody else. And so that's one obvious way of opening up the funnel. But you can imagine a much more aggressive approach for example, right now, you have a choice between taking out a loan on a onetime virtual card number or you can go down the remote of applying for a card. Obviously, taking away the former will naturally increase the latter. So there are several non-dramatic with meaningful levels of growth that we have chosen not to pull on just yet. And then ultimately, if you sign up for Affirm, at some point, you just got to get a card. And that's certainly not a thing we're going to do tomorrow, but that is a meaningful trajectory change.

    因此,我們仍然會稍微向我們有利的方向傾斜,因為獲得信用卡優惠的消費者與其他人的截止水平並不完全相同。所以這是打開頻道的明顯方式。但你可以想像一種更激進的方法,例如,現在,你可以選擇使用一次性虛擬卡號貸款,或者你可以遠端申請卡。顯然,去掉前者,自然就會增加後者。因此,有一些非戲劇性但有意義的成長水平,我們選擇暫時不實施。最終,如果你註冊了 Affirm,在某個時候,你只需要得到一張卡。這當然不是我們明天要做的事情,但這是一個有意義的軌跡變化。

  • Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Thomas Bauch - Equity Analyst

  • So it still sounds like it's going to be pretty targeted for a while here.

    所以聽起來它仍然會在一段時間內成為很有針對性的目標。

  • Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

    Max Roth Levchin - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Not forecasting any time that stops or goes, but I feel very good about the card growth for now.

    沒有預測任何停止或消失的時間,但我對目前卡牌的成長感覺非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. And I would like to turn the floor back over to Zane Keller for closing comments.

    謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回贊恩凱勒以徵求結束意見。

  • Zane Keller

    Zane Keller

  • Well, thank you, everybody, for joining the call today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

    好的,謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。