愛依斯電力 (AES) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for attending today's AES Corporation Third Quarter 2024 Financial Review Call. My name is Megan, and I'll be your moderator for today. (Operator Instructions)

早安.感謝您參加今天的 AES 公司 2024 年第三季財務審查電話會議。我叫梅根，我將擔任今天的主持人。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations at AES Corporation. Susan, you may begin

我現在想將電話轉給 AES 公司投資者關係副總裁蘇珊·哈考特 (Susan Harcourt)。蘇珊，你可以開始了

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2024 financial review call. Our press release, presentation and related financial information are available on our website at aes.com.

謝謝你，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財務回顧電話會議。我們的新聞稿、簡報和相關財務資訊可在我們的網站 aes.com 上取得。

Today, we will be making forward-looking statements. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements, which are disclosed in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website along with the presentation.

今天，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致未來結果與我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 中披露的這些聲明產生重大差異。您可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的調整表以及簡報。

Joining me this morning are Andres Gluski, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Stephen Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer; and other senior members of our management team. With that, I will turn the call over to Andres.

今天早上與我一起出席的是我們的總裁兼執行長安德烈斯·格魯斯基 (Andres Gluski)； Stephen Coughlin，我們的財務長；以及我們管理團隊的其他高階成員。這樣，我會將電話轉給安德烈斯。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2024 financial review call. We are pleased with our performance this year. And today, I will discuss our third quarter results, a robust growth we are seeing at our renewables and US utility businesses and our progress towards our asset sales target.

大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財務審查電話會議。我們對今年的表現感到滿意。今天，我將討論我們的第三季業績、我們在再生能源和美國公用事業業務方面看到的強勁成長以及我們在實現資產銷售目標方面的進展。

Beginning on slide 3 with our third quarter results, which were generally in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was about $1.2 million, adjusted EBITDA was $692 million and adjusted EPS was $0.71. We're on track to meet our 2024 financial objectives, including our expectation to be in the top half of our ranges for adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes and adjusted EPS.

從投影片 3 開始，我們的第三季業績基本上符合我們的預期。含稅收屬性的調整後 EBITDA 約為 120 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6.92 億美元，調整後每股收益為 0.71 美元。我們預計將實現 2024 年的財務目標，包括我們期望調整後的 EBITDA 與稅務屬性和調整後的每股盈餘處於我們範圍的上半部分。

At the same time, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to be towards the low end of the guidance range for the year, primarily due to the onetime impact of extreme weather in Colombia and the lower margins in the energy infrastructure SBU. We are reaffirming our expected growth rate through 2027. Steve Coughlin, our CFO, will provide more detail on our financial performance and outlook.

同時，我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 將接近今年指導範圍的低端，這主要是由於哥倫比亞極端天氣的一次性影響以及能源基礎設施 SBU 的利潤率較低。我們重申 2027 年的預期成長率。我們的財務長 Steve Coughlin 將提供有關我們財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。

I'm also very pleased to report that since our last call in August, we have signed or been awarded 2.2 gigawatts of new contracts. This includes both long-term renewable PPAs and new data center load growth at our US utilities.

我還很高興地報告，自 8 月上次通話以來，我們已經簽署或獲得了 2.2 吉瓦的新合約。這包括長期再生能源購電協議和我們美國公用事業公司的新資料中心負載成長。

Moving to our renewables business on slide 4. Since our Q2 financial review call, we have added 1.3 gigawatts of new PPAs to our backlog, bringing our year-to-date total to 3.5 gigawatts, more than 70% of which is with corporate customers. As a reminder, last year, we set a target of signing 14 to 17 gigawatts of new PPAs from 2023 to 2025. And with 9.1 gigawatts signed or awarded since the beginning of last year, we're currently well on track to meet this objective. Since setting that goal, we also materially increased our project return targets, and we are focused on prioritizing the most profitable PPAs.

轉向幻燈片 4 上我們的再生能源業務。自第二季財務審查電話會議以來，我們已在積壓訂單中增加了 1.3 吉瓦的新購電協議，使我們今年迄今的總量達到 3.5 吉瓦，其中 70% 以上來自企業客戶。提醒一下，去年，我們設定了 2023 年至 2025 年簽署 14 至 17 吉瓦新購電協議的目標。自去年初以來，我們已簽署或授予了 9.1 吉瓦的電力，目前我們正在順利實現這一目標。自設定該目標以來，我們也大幅提高了專案回報目標，並且我們專注於優先考慮最有利可圖的購電協議。

Moving to slide 5 and our construction progress. Since our second quarter call in August, we have completed construction of an additional 1.2 gigawatts of new projects, bringing year-to-date total to 2.8 gigawatts, which represents nearly 8% of the 3.6 gigawatts we expect to complete this year.

轉到投影片 5 和我們的施工進度。自8 月第二季電話會議以來，我們已經完成了額外1.2 吉瓦新項目的建設，使今年迄今的總裝置容量達到2.8 吉瓦，占我們今年預計完成的3.6 吉瓦裝置容量的近8% 。

On-time execution is one of our competitive advantages, and we believe we have the best supply chain management in the industry. In the US, we have 100% of our solar panels on site for those projects coming online this year and 84% in country for next year. For 2026, we have 100% of our solar panels either in country or contracted to be domestically manufactured, providing protection against potential changes in tariff policy.

按時執行是我們的競爭優勢之一，我們相信我們擁有業內最好的供應鏈管理。在美國，今年這些項目中我們 100% 的太陽能板將在現場上線，明年將有 84% 在國內上線。到 2026 年，我們 100% 的太陽能電池板要么在國內生產，要么透過合約在國內生產，從而為關稅政策的潛在變化提供保護。

We have also been a first mover in securing domestically manufactured battery modules and cells. We expect our first battery energy storage project with domestic content to come online in the first half of 2026. Additionally, we have established a robust supply chain for wind through our strategic suppliers with domestic manufacturing. Regarding long lead time equipment, such as transformers, and high-voltage breakers, we have secured all of the supply for our backlog through 2027.

我們也是確保國產電池模組和電芯的先驅。我們預計第一個國產電池儲能計畫將於2026年上半年上線。此外，我們也透過國內製造的策略供應商建立了強大的風電供應鏈。對於變壓器和高壓斷路器等交貨時間較長的設備，我們已確保 2027 年之前的積壓訂單全部供應。

Turning to slide 6. We are very well positioned as a leading provider of renewable energy to data center companies, particularly in the US and to large mining companies outside the US. These customers want to work with AES due to our track record of providing customized solutions that best serve their specific needs and delivering our projects on time and on budget.

轉到投影片 6。作為資料中心公司（尤其是美國資料中心公司）和美國以外大型礦業公司的再生能源領先供應商，我們處於非常有利的地位。這些客戶希望與 AES 合作，因為我們在提供最能滿足其特定需求的客製化解決方案以及按時、按預算交付專案方面有著良好的記錄。

With the US elections only a few days away, I have great confidence in the resilience of our business plan, regardless of the outcomes of the presidential and congressional elections. While we do not believe the elimination of the investment tax credit or production tax credit is likely, even in an extreme scenario, we're uniquely well positioned due to the following.

距離美國大選只有幾天了，無論總統和國會選舉的結果如何，我對我們的業務計劃的彈性充滿信心。雖然我們認為即使在極端情況下也不太可能取消投資稅收抵免或生產稅收抵免，但由於以下原因，我們處於獨特的有利地位。

First, regardless of federal policies, our corporate customers had a massive need for new power that can only be met by renewables over the next decade. McKinsey estimates that in the US data centers alone could require an additional 450 terawatt hours through the end of the decade, which is equivalent to more than the annual electricity consumption of France. With these market dynamics, we will continue to sign high-return renewables PPAs with our core customers.

首先，無論聯邦政策如何，我們的企業客戶對新電力的巨大需求在未來十年只能透過再生能源來滿足。麥肯錫估計，到本十年末，光是美國資料中心就可能需要額外 450 太瓦時的電力，這相當於法國的年耗電量。鑑於這些市場動態，我們將繼續與核心客戶簽署高回報的再生能源購電協議。

Second, should there be any changes to US tariff policy, we have a resilient supply chain, with a large majority of our project components manufactured domestically by 2026. Finally, our strategy of procuring our equipment at the time of the PPA signing provides clear safe harboring protection from potential changes in policy.

其次，如果美國關稅政策發生任何變化，我們擁有有彈性的供應鏈，到 2026 年我們的大部分專案組件將在國內製造。最後，我們在簽署購電協議時購買設備的策略提供了明確的安全港保護，免受潛在政策變化的影響。

Now turning to slide 7. Over the last 12 months, we have embarked on the most ambitious investment program in the history of our US utilities, which will improve reliability and quality of service for our customers, while maintaining some of the lowest rates in both states. AES Indiana and AES Ohio are now two of the fastest-growing US utilities, with projected double-digit rate base growth through 2027 based on necessary investments for our customers. As you may recall, in the third quarter of last year, we received commission approval for a new regulatory structure for AES Ohio, providing for timely recovery of the majority of these investments.

現在轉到投影片 7。在過去 12 個月中，我們啟動了美國公用事業公司歷史上最雄心勃勃的投資計劃，這將提高我們客戶的服務可靠性和質量，同時保持兩個州最低的費率。AES 印第安納州和 AES 俄亥俄州目前是美國成長最快的兩家公用事業公司，根據客戶的必要投資，預計到 2027 年費率基數將達到兩位數成長。您可能還記得，去年第三季度，我們獲得了 AES 俄亥俄州新監管結構的委員會批准，以便及時收回大部分投資。

Similarly, earlier last year, we received commission approval for new rates at AES Indiana, our first rate case in seven years. We are starting to see the benefits from the $1.2 billion we have invested in both utilities so far this year, representing a year-over-year increase of investment of 60%. Excluding the onetime settlement benefit recognized in 2023, year-to-date EBITDA is up 25%.

同樣，去年早些時候，我們在 AES Indiana 獲得了委員會批准新費率，這是我們七年來的第一個費率案例。今年迄今為止，我們已在這兩家公用事業公司投資了 12 億美元，我們開始看到效益，投資年增 60%。不包括 2023 年確認的一次性結算利益，年初至今的 EBITDA 成長了 25%。

Turning to slide 8. We're also seeing additional investment opportunities from data center growth in our service areas above and beyond our existing rate base projections. Our utilities have many natural advantages that are attractive to large technology companies, such as proximity to fiber networks and the presence of ample land and water. We have worked to proactively identify sites that are well positioned to support new data centers, capitalizing on our deep relationships with technology companies.

轉到投影片 8。我們也看到了服務領域資料中心成長帶來的額外投資機會，超出了我們現有的費率基礎預測。我們的公用事業公司擁有許多對大型科技公司有吸引力的天然優勢，例如靠近光纖網路以及擁有充足的土地和水源。我們利用與科技公司的深厚關係，努力主動尋找能夠支援新資料中心的站點。

At AES Indiana, we expect to have specific data center deals to announce in the coming months, as we've been in active negotiations with several parties. We recently launched an RFP for 3 gigawatts of new generation to support accelerating demand growth. From a regulatory perspective, we will use the results of this RFP to help inform our IRP submission next year. At AES Ohio, we have now signed agreements for new data center load growth of 2.1 gigawatts, including an incremental 900 megawatts, on top of the 1.2 gigawatts we already announced on our last call.

在 AES Indiana，我們預計將在未來幾個月內宣布具體的資料中心交易，因為我們一直在與多方進行積極談判。我們最近推出了新一代 3 吉瓦的 RFP，以支援需求的加速成長。從監管角度來看，我們將使用此 RFP 的結果來幫助為明年的 I​​RP 提交提供資訊。在 AES Ohio，我們現已簽署了新資料中心負載成長 2.1 吉瓦的協議，其中包括在上次電話會議中宣布的 1.2 吉瓦的基礎上增加 900 兆瓦。

On our fourth quarter call in February, we will provide a comprehensive update on how these agreements impact our long-term investment plan and rate base growth. Today, we can indicate that just what we've signed to date provides a nearly 30% increase in investment through the end of the decade over our current plan.

在二月份的第四季電話會議上，我們將提供有關這些協議如何影響我們的長期投資計劃和利率基礎增長的全面最新資訊。今天，我們可以表明，迄今為止我們所簽署的協議使我們在本十年末的投資比我們目前的計劃增加了近 30%。

Turning to slide 9. In September, we announced the plan to sell down 30% of AES Ohio to CDPQ, our longtime partner in AES Indiana. This transaction builds upon our strong relationship with CDPQ and allow us for common ownership across our US utilities. This partnership will support growth at AES Ohio, with CDPQ as a funding partner for increasing investments to support reliability and economic development.

轉到投影片 9。9 月，我們宣布計劃將 AES 俄亥俄州 30% 的股份出售給 CDPQ（我們在 AES 印第安納州的長期合作夥伴）。這項交易建立在我們與 CDPQ 的牢固關係之上，並使我們能夠在美國公用事業公司中擁有共同所有權。此次合作將支持 AES Ohio 的發展，CDPQ 作為融資合作夥伴，增加投資以支持可靠性和經濟發展。

Finally, as you may have seen in our release, we are pleased to report that we have now closed the sale of our equity interest in AES Brazil. We are proud of the work our people have done in Brazil to expand beyond the 2.7-gigawatt hydro portfolio by adding 2.5 gigawatts of operating wind and solar, creating one of the largest renewable businesses in the country.

最後，正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們很高興地報告，我們現在已完成 AES Brazil 股權的出售。我們為我們的員工在巴西所做的工作感到自豪，他們透過增加 2.5 吉瓦的風能和太陽能發電量，擴大了 2.7 吉瓦的水力發電投資組合，創建了該國最大的再生能源企業之一。

With these two transactions, we have now signed or closed agreements for more than three-quarters of our $3.5 billion asset sale proceeds target through 2027. We have also further simplified our portfolio and eliminated Brazilian weather, interest rate and currency risks.

透過這兩項交易，我們現已簽署或完成了到 2027 年 35 億美元資產出售收益目標中四分之三以上的協議。我們也進一步簡化了投資組合，消除了巴西的天氣、利率和貨幣風險。

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to our CFO, Steve Coughlin.

現在，我想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Steve Coughlin。

Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will discuss our third quarter results in our 2024 guidance and parent capital allocation.

謝謝你，安德烈斯，大家早安。今天，我將討論 2024 年指引和母公司資本配置中的第三季業績。

Turning to slide 11, adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was approximately $1.2 billion in the third quarter versus $1 billion a year ago. Although we realized $458 million of additional tax value year-over-year, renewables EBITDA was down $68 million, driven mostly by record-breaking drought conditions in South America. In addition, our energy infrastructure SBU was down $221 million, largely due to expected items, which I'll cover in more detail on a later slide.

轉向投影片 11，第三季包含稅收屬性的調整後 EBITDA 約為 12 億美元，而一年前為 10 億美元。儘管我們比去年同期實現了 4.58 億美元的額外稅收價值，但再生能源 EBITDA 下降了 6,800 萬美元，這主要是由於南美洲破紀錄的乾旱狀況。此外，我們的能源基礎設施 SBU 減少了 2.21 億美元，主要是由於預期項目，我將在後面的幻燈片中更詳細地介紹這些項目。

Turning to slide 12. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.71 versus $0.60 last year. Drivers were similar to those of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, but partially offset by higher parent interest due to growth investments, as well as a higher adjusted tax rate. I'll cover the performance of our SBUs, or Strategic Business Units, on the next four slides.

轉到投影片 12。本季調整後每股收益為 0.71 美元，去年同期為 0.60 美元。驅動因素與具有稅收屬性的調整後 EBITDA 類似，但部分被成長投資導致的母公司利息增加以及調整後稅率提高所抵消。我將在接下來的四張投影片中介紹我們的 SBU（即策略業務部門）的績效。

Beginning with our renewables SBU on slide 13, higher EBITDA with tax attributes was driven primarily by significant growth from new projects in the US, where we've added 3.3 gigawatts since Q3 2023, but was partially offset by significant declines at our Colombia and Brazil businesses. This year, we've experienced unprecedented weather volatility and a record-breaking drought in South America, driven by El Niño conditions.

從幻燈片13 上的可再生能源SBU 開始，具有稅收屬性的EBITDA 較高，主要是由美國新項目的顯著增長推動的，自2023 年第三季度以來，我們在美國增加了3.3 吉瓦，但部分被哥倫比亞和巴西的大幅下降所抵銷企業。今年，在厄爾尼諾現象的推動下，南美洲經歷了前所未有的天氣波動和破紀錄的乾旱。

In June, a historic flooding event took out our 1 gigawatt Chivor facility in Colombia for nearly two months, followed by an extreme drought across the entire country. Also, you may recall that the third quarter of 2023 was extremely positive, as we had better hydrology at our Chivor facility than the rest of the country, while spot prices were very high, yielding significant margins.

6 月，一場歷史性的洪水事件使我們位於哥倫比亞的 1 吉瓦 Chivor 設施受損近兩個月，隨後整個國家陷入極度乾旱。此外，您可能還記得，2023 年第三季的情況非常樂觀，因為我們的 Chivor 工廠的水文狀況比全國其他地區更好，而現貨價格非常高，產生了可觀的利潤。

As a result, Colombia is down $92 million versus the third quarter of last year and over $130 million year-to-date versus last year. In Brazil, the record drought and extremely low wind resource this year have also negatively impacted renewables in Q3 and year-to-date.

因此，哥倫比亞比去年第三季減少了 9,200 萬美元，今年迄今比去年減少了超過 1.3 億美元。在巴西，今年創紀錄的乾旱和極低的風力資源也對第三季和今年迄今的再生能源產生了負面影響。

While 2024 has been a difficult year due to the events in South America, we expect our renewables segment will grow significantly in 2025. Emerging La Niña conditions in the Pacific are expected to return the region to much better hydrology, while in the US, by the end of this year, we will have brought online a total of nearly 2 gigawatts of new capacity, which will drive a large increase in our renewables segment EBITDA in 2025.

雖然由於南美發生的事件，2024 年是困難的一年，但我們預計我們的再生能源業務將在 2025 年大幅成長。太平洋地區出現的拉尼娜現象預計將使該地區的水文狀況恢復得更好，而在美國，到今年年底，我們將新增近 2 吉瓦的裝置容量，這將推動到2025 年，我們的可再生能源部門EBITDA 將大幅成長。

Now, turning to slide 14, lower adjusted PTC at our utilities SBU was mostly driven by the prior-year recovery of $39 million of purchased power costs at AES Ohio included as part of the ESP4 settlement, as well as higher interest expense from new borrowings. This was offset by returns on new rate-based investment in the US, as well as new rates implemented in Indiana in May. Adjusting for the one-time settlement last year, utilities adjusted PTC grew by 18% in the third quarter over prior years.

現在，轉向幻燈片14，我們的公用事業SBU 調整後的PTC 較低，主要是由於AES 俄亥俄州上一年收回了3900 萬美元的購買電力成本（作為ESP4 和解的一部分），以及新借款帶來的更高的利息費用。這被美國新利率投資的回報以及印第安納州 5 月實施的新利率所抵消。在去年的一次性結算進行調整後，公用事業調整後的 PTC 在第三季比往年增加了 18%。

Lower year-over-year Q3 EBITDA at our energy infrastructure SBU was primarily driven by nearly $200 million of expected declines at our Warrior Run and Southland legacy businesses, and the impact of several sell-downs, all of which were baked into our guidance. At Warrior Run, we recognized revenues from the accelerated monetization of the PPA beginning last year and ending in the second quarter of this year. Our legacy Southland assets benefited from energy margins earned in the prior year, which are no longer an opportunity in 2024 under the new extension monetization structure.

我們的能源基礎設施 SBU 第三季 EBITDA 同比下降主要是由於我們的 Warrior Run 和 Southland 傳統業務預計將下降近 2 億美元，以及幾次出售的影響，所有這些都納入了我們的指導。在 Warrior Run，我們從去年開始到今年第二季結束的 PPA 加速貨幣化中確認了收入。我們的傳統 Southland 資產受益於上一年賺取的能源利潤，但在新的擴展貨幣化結構下，到 2024 年，這不再是一個機會。

In addition to these known drivers, we experienced lower margins at our new Southland combined cycle assets in the US due to much milder weather, as well as extended outages at our TEG and TEP thermal plants in Mexico. Finally, higher EBITDA at our new energy technologies SBU reflects continued high growth and margin increases at Fluence.

除了這些已知的驅動因素之外，由於天氣溫和得多，以及墨西哥的 TEG 和 TEP 熱電廠停電時間延長，我們在美國新的 Southland 聯合循環資產的利潤率也較低。最後，我們新能源技術 SBU 較高的 EBITDA 反映了 Fluence 的持續高成長和利潤率成長。

Now turning to our expectations on slide 17. We are reaffirming our 2024 adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes guidance of $3.6 to $4 billion, and adjusted EPS guidance of $1.87 to $1.97 and continue to expect to be in the top half of both ranges, driven in part by the success we've had securing higher tax value on our new projects.

現在轉向我們對投影片 17 的期望。我們重申 2024 年調整後 EBITDA，稅收屬性指引為 3.6 至 40 億美元，調整後每股收益指引為 1.87 至 1.97 美元，並繼續預計將處於兩個範圍的上半部分，部分原因是我們取得的成功我們的新項目的稅收價值更高。

Our renewables team expects to capture over $200 million in tax value upside this year, which reduces our growth capital needs. EBITDA from renewables will be favorable in the fourth quarter from revenues earned on our new PPAs, although we expect lower tax attributes in the fourth quarter as a result of the more balanced timing of renewable commissionings throughout the year.

我們的再生能源團隊預計今年將獲得超過 2 億美元的稅收增值，這將減少我們的成長資本需求。再生能源的 EBITDA 將在第四季度從我們的新購電協議中獲得的收入中獲益，儘管我們預計由於全年可再生能源調試時間更加平衡，第四季度的稅收屬性會降低。

We also expect further growth in our US utilities in Q4 as we continue to realize returns from our investment program. This will be offset by the negative impact from the prior year monetization of the Warrior Run PPA, as well as incremental impact from asset sales, including AES Brazil.

隨著我們繼續從投資計劃中實現回報，我們也預計第四季度美國公用事業業務將進一步成長。這將被去年 Warrior Run PPA 貨幣化的負面影響以及包括 AES Brazil 在內的資產出售的增量影響所抵消。

Drivers of adjusted EPS will be similar, along with higher interest expense from growth capital, but benefiting from a lower adjusted tax rate. As a result of our efforts to spread renewables construction more evenly throughout the year, we've achieved more than 80% of our adjusted EPS guidance year-to-date, providing greater certainty around our 2024 financial objectives.

調整後每股收益的驅動因素將是相似的，以及來自成長資本的更高的利息支出，但受益於較低的調整後稅率。由於我們全年更均勻地分佈再生能源建設，我們已實現了年初至今調整後每股收益指導值的 80% 以上，為我們的 2024 年財務目標提供了更大的確定性。

Turning to slide 18. We are also reaffirming our adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion. While I'm pleased with our execution this year on our growth objectives, several large drivers have impacted results, primarily at our legacy businesses, and we now expect to end the year towards the lower end of our guidance range.

轉到投影片 18。我們也重申調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍為 26 億美元至 29 億美元。雖然我對我們今年成長目標的執行情況感到滿意，但幾個重大驅動因素影響了業績，主要是我們的傳統業務，我們現在預計今年年底將達到指導範圍的下限。

Milder weather compressed spark spreads in California, resulting in lower margins at our South and combined cycle gas plants. The PPA for these assets contains an option that allows us to choose to sell the energy to the market in a given year. We previously chose to execute this option for 2024, and were therefore impacted by declining spark spreads that occurred later in the year.

加州較溫和的天氣壓縮了火花傳播，導致我們南部和聯合循環天然氣工廠的利潤率下降。這些資產的購電協議包含一個選項，讓我們可以選擇在特定年份向市場出售能源。我們之前選擇在 2024 年執行此選項，因此受到當年稍後發生的火花價差下降的影響。

In Mexico, the unplanned outages, which have now been resolved, further impacted our results in the second and third quarter. In Colombia, the combination of the Q2 flood-related outage at Chivor and year-long record drought have negatively impacted us versus our guidance.

在墨西哥，計劃外停電現已解決，進一步影響了我們第二季和第三季的業績。在哥倫比亞，奇沃爾第二季度與洪水相關的停電和長達一年的創紀錄乾旱對我們的指導產生了負面影響。

Finally, inverter failures at several of our solar sites impacted availability versus our plan. These inverters were under warranty and are being remediated by the manufacturers.

最後，我們的幾個太陽能站點的逆變器故障影響了我們計劃的可用性。這些逆變器在保固期內，並且正在由製造商進行修復。

Despite the confluence of these onetime negative impacts, growth in US renewables remains very strong, and our US utilities have outperformed. We expect to continue this momentum and substantially increase EBITDA at both our renewables and utilities businesses in 2025.

儘管這些一次性負面影響交織在一起，但美國再生能源的成長仍然非常強勁，而且美國公用事業公司的表現也優於大盤。我們預計到 2025 年，我們的再生能源和公用事業業務將繼續保持這一勢頭，並大幅提高 EBITDA。

Now to our 2024 parent capital allocation plan on slide 19. Sources reflect approximately $2.7 billion of total discretionary cash, including $1.1 billion of parent free cash flow, $950 million of hybrid debt that we issued in May, and $650 million of proceeds from asset sales. Sale proceeds will be slightly lower than expected in 2024 due to timing, but we are well ahead of our $3.5 billion long-term target through 2027.

現在介紹投影片 19 上的 2024 年母公司資本分配計畫。消息來源顯示，可自由支配現金總額約為 27 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元的母公司自由現金流、我們 5 月發行的 9.5 億美元混合債務以及 6.5 億美元的資產出售收益。由於時間原因，2024 年的銷售收益將略低於預期，但我們遠遠領先 2027 年 35 億美元的長期目標。

On the right-hand side, you can see our planned use of capital. We will return approximately $500 million to shareholders this year, reflecting the previously announced 4% dividend increase. We also plan to invest $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in new growth.

在右側，您可以看到我們計劃的資金使用情況。今年我們將向股東返還約 5 億美元，反映了先前宣布的 4% 的股息成長。我們還計劃投資 22 億至 23 億美元用於新增長。

In summary, we've continued to execute in the year-to-date and are well positioned for a strong finish to 2024. Our substantial renewables commissioning thus far give us greater line of sight toward achieving our earnings and cash targets, and our funding plan is largely complete. With $1.60 of adjusted EPS year-to-date, we have overachieved on our EPS growth with a clear path to landing at least in the upper half of our guidance range.

總而言之，我們今年迄今繼續執行，並為 2024 年的強勁業績做好了準備。到目前為止，我們大量的再生能源調試使我們有更大的視野來實現我們的盈利和現金目標，而且我們的融資計劃已基本完成。年初至今，調整後每股收益為 1.60 美元，我們的每股盈餘成長超額完成，並且有明確的路徑至少可以達到我們指導範圍的上半部分。

As we look ahead to 2025, we see strong growth in our renewables and utility segments and continued execution of our decarbonization strategy in energy infrastructure. I look forward to providing additional detail around 2025 and beyond on our fourth quarter call.

展望 2025 年，我們看到再生能源和公用事業領域將強勁成長，並繼續執行能源基礎設施領域的脫碳策略。我期待在 2025 年左右及之後在我們的第四季度電話會議上提供更多詳細資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andres.

這樣，我會將電話轉回安德烈斯。

Thank you, Steve. Before opening up the call for Q&A, I would like to summarize the highlights from today's call. We continue to execute well on our strategic priorities, including robust growth at our renewables and US utility businesses. With 9.1 gigawatts of new PPAs signed or award in 2023 and year-to-date 2024, we are well on our way towards achieving our goal of 14 to 17 gigawatts in 2023 through 2025.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。在開始問答電話會議之前，我想總結一下今天電話會議的要點。我們繼續良好地執行我們的策略重點，包括我們的再生能源和美國公用事業業務的強勁成長。隨著 2023 年和 2024 年迄今簽署或授予的 9.1 吉瓦新購電協議，我們正在順利實現 2023 年至 2025 年 14 至 17 吉瓦的目標。

Regarding our construction program, we have added 2.8 gigawatts of new projects to our operating portfolio so far this year, and we're seeing the direct financial benefits in our adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes results. At our US utilities, we have embarked on the most ambition investment program in their history, while signing agreements for 2.1 gigawatts of data center load growth, and we expect more in the coming months.

關於我們的建設計劃，今年到目前為止，我們已經在營運組合中增加了 2.8 吉瓦的新項目，我們在調整後的 EPS 和調整後的 EBITDA 以及稅收屬性結果中看到了直接的財務收益。在我們的美國公用事業公司，我們已經啟動了歷史上最雄心勃勃的投資計劃，同時簽署了 2.1 吉瓦資料中心負載成長協議，我們預計未來幾個月還會有更多成長。

We're also executing well on our asset sale and transformation program. We feel good about the remainder of 2024 and our long-term outlook, despite specific onetime weather-related this year. Finally, I can confidently say that I believe no one is better positioned with large technology customers than AES. Energy market fundamentals and the strong demand we're seeing from our corporate customers give us great confidence in the resilience of our business plan, regardless of the outcomes of the upcoming US elections.

我們的資產出售和轉型計劃也執行得很好。儘管今年出現了一些與天氣有關的特殊情況，但我們對 2024 年剩餘時間以及我們的長期前景感到樂觀。最後，我可以自信地說，我相信沒有人比 AES 更適合大型科技客戶。無論即將到來的美國選舉結果如何，能源市場的基本面和我們看到的企業客戶的強勁需求使我們對我們的業務計劃的彈性充滿信心。

Operator, please open up the line for questions.

接線員，請開通提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Nic Campanella, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Nic Campanella，巴克萊銀行。

So I wanted to just ask the comments about supply chain, you seem well positioned through 2026 with panels, et cetera. But you continue to construct 3.5 gigs for this year. You kind of outlined this previous target at the Analyst Day of 14 gig into 2025. So we're getting closer up to '25 now. I just kind of check in and see how you feel progressing towards that target because there will be -- it seems like it will be a pretty good step up into '25 here? And is that still attainable?

所以我想問一下有關供應鏈的評論，到 2026 年，你們在面板等方面似乎處於有利位置。但今年你們繼續建造 3.5 場。您在分析師日上概述了先前的目標，即 2025 年 14 場演出。現在我們已經接近 25 歲了。我只是檢查一下，看看你對實現該目標的進展有何感覺，因為這似乎是進入 25 年後的一個很好的進步？這仍然可以實現嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Nic. I mean we feel very strong about our supply chain management and construction program. We are the only large renewables developer, which really hasn't had to abandon any large PPAs over the last three, four years. So what we've said, we have all the equipment we need this year.

是的。謝謝你的提問，尼克。我的意思是，我們對我們的供應鏈管理和建設計劃非常有信心。我們是唯一一家大型再生能源開發商，在過去三、四年確實沒有放棄任何大型購電協議。正如我們所說，我們擁有今年所需的所有設備。

We have 84% of what we need for next year already in country. In the next month or so, we should have 100%. So we feel very good about supply chain. We intend to concentrate on the big items like wind turbines, batteries, solar panels. But you also have inverters and you have transformers, which are long lead time, and we feel very solid there.

我們明年所需的 84% 已經在國內了。在接下來的一個月左右的時間裡，我們應該會達到100%。所以我們對供應鏈感覺非常好。我們打算專注於風力渦輪機、電池、太陽能板等大型產品。但你們也有逆變器和變壓器，這些設備的交貨時間很長，我們在那裡感到非常穩定。

In addition, we've really had no problems with the workforce either because we have strategic relationships with EPC contractors so that they can move the crews from one project to the next. So in answering your question, we feel very good about our construction program. And as you know, in 2023, we geared up 100%. So now we've been able to really smooth our commissioning throughout the year, and we expect that in 2025 and 2026.

此外，我們在勞動力方面也確實沒有任何問題，因為我們與 EPC 承包商有策略關係，這樣他們就可以將工作人員從一個專案轉移到下一個專案。所以在回答你的問題時，我們對我們的建設計劃感到非常滿意。如您所知，到 2023 年，我們已做好 100% 的準備。因此，現在我們已經能夠真正順利地全年進行調試，我們預計在 2025 年和 2026 年實現這一目標。

All right. When I think about '25 again, obviously, you had, on an tax attribute basis, some one-timers that's kind of putting you a little lower here. And I sense the notable confidence on the growth into 2025. Can you just kind of quantify for us how much is really just returned to normal versus new EBITDA from renewables contributions? And then when you consider things like Brazil rolling off, do you still expect that renewables segment to grow year-over-year?

好的。當我再次想到「25」時，顯然，在稅收屬性的基礎上，你有一些一次性的，這會讓你在這裡有點低。我感覺到人們對 2025 年的成長充滿信心。您能否為我們量化一下再生能源貢獻真正恢復正常的 EBITDA 與新 EBITDA 的比例是多少？然後，當您考慮像巴西這樣的情況時，您是否仍預期再生能源領域會逐年成長？

Yes. Look, that's a very good question. We aren't giving guidance for 2025 at this time. But you're right, what you really have is mean reversion. You were really coming back to sort of more normal year. 2024 is a year that we've never had before, the sort of combination of extreme floods and extreme droughts in some of our service territories, largely driven by El Niño, coming into La Niña, we expect a return to normal.

是的。聽著，這是一個非常好的問題。我們目前不提供 2025 年的指導。但你是對的，你真正擁有的是均值回歸。你真的回到了更正常的一年。 2024 年是我們以前從未遇到過的一年，我們的一些服務區域出現了極端洪水和極端乾旱的情況，主要是由厄爾尼諾現象驅動，進入拉尼娜現象，我們預計會恢復正常。

But you also correctly point out that we're maintaining all of our guidance and our long-term growth rates without Brazil. And so that means that the other sectors are picking up. So to the extent that I can say we expect next year to be a more normal year and we've absorbed the sale of Brazil by increasing the growth rates, especially in US renewables and US utilities.

但您也正確地指出，在沒有巴西的情況下，我們將維持所有指導和長期成長率。這意味著其他行業正在復甦。因此，我可以說，我們預計明年將是更加正常的一年，我們透過提高成長率吸收了巴西的銷售，特別是在美國再生能源和美國公用事業方面。

Yes. Nic, it's Steve. I would just add. We've added and will add a total of 3 gigawatts of new renewables this year across the portfolio. So there's -- in addition to some more normalization, like La Niña coming in South America, the installed base is going to be significantly higher. So that's part of it. Renewables segment will grow significantly. And we also have -- outside the renewables, we have the utilities growth. So with a full year of new rates in Indiana and continued rate base growth in Ohio.

是的。尼克，是史蒂夫。我只想補充一下。今年我們已經並將在整個投資組合中新增總計 3 吉瓦的新再生能源。因此，除了一些更多的正常化（例如拉尼娜現像出現在南美）之外，安裝基數還將顯著提高。這就是其中的一部分。再生能源領域將大幅成長。除了再生能源之外，我們還有公用事業的成長。因此，印第安納州全年實施新利率，俄亥俄州利率基數持續成長。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

大衛‧阿卡羅，摩根士丹利。

I was wondering if you could elaborate on the outperformance you had in tax credits that you received. You referenced the $200 million higher-than-expected tax credits. Wondering what that stemmed from? And is there an opportunity for any more outperformance from here?

我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您在收到的稅收抵免方面的出色表現。您提到了高於預期的 2 億美元稅收抵免。想知道這源自於什麼嗎？是否有機會進一步超越？

Dave, it's Steve. Definitely been a very good year. Look, this is, I would say, a very core competency for us and a key differentiator. We have I think the strongest tax team and renewables finance team there is. We're always looking to ensure that we minimize the tax value opportunity because what does that do? It reduces our capital requirements and also increases returns.

戴夫，這是史蒂夫。絕對是非常好的一年。我想說，這對我們來說是一項非常核心的能力，也是一個關鍵的差異化因素。我認為我們擁有最強大的稅務團隊和再生能源融資團隊。我們一直在尋求確保最大限度地減少稅收價值機會，因為這有什麼作用呢？它降低了我們的資本要求並增加了回報。

So it's -- we've had a good year. We've done a number of things to ensure we qualify for bonuses, including places where there's a brownfield at or -- that allows us to qualify for the energy community. These are sites that were formerly, say, agricultural sites that had, had different materials, chemicals applied that allowed them to qualify. So we've done a lot of research and digging to justify adders where we can.

所以，我們度過了美好的一年。我們做了很多事情來確保我們有資格獲得獎金，包括在 或 處有棕地的地方 - 這使我們有資格進入能源社區。這些場所以前是農業場所，使用了不同的材料和化學品，使它們符合資格。因此，我們做了很多研究和挖掘，盡可能證明加法器的合理性。

So the other thing we're doing is all tax credits are not created equal. So because of our track record, people tend to come to us, expect -- and we get less of a discount and we get people very focused on working with us. So I would say, monetizing through transfers, we've had a lot of success and transfers do tend to get recognized a little earlier than through the tax equity partnerships the credit value. So that's part of it as well.

因此，我們正在做的另一件事是，並非所有稅收抵免都是平等的。因此，由於我們的業績記錄，人們往往會來找我們，期待——我們得到的折扣較少，而且人們非常專注於與我們合作。所以我想說，透過轉移貨幣化，我們已經取得了很多成功，而且轉移確實比透過稅收股權合作夥伴關係的信用價值更早得到認可。這也是其中的一部分。

So I do see this as potential upside in the future. But of course, there's other things going on in the portfolio. We have to take a holistic look. And when we give guidance in '25, we'll update you guys on the entire portfolio.

所以我確實認為這是未來的潛在優勢。當然，投資組合中還發生了其他事情。我們必須全面地看待。當我們在 25 年提供指導時，我們將向大家通報整個投資組合的最新情況。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Good to see just chipping away at the financing need with that. And then wondering if you could just touch on what renewable returns have been on the incremental projects that you've been signing, I guess, since raising your return expectations earlier in the year, how those return levels have been trending? Has there been continued momentum upwards?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。很高興看到以此來減少融資需求。然後想知道您是否可以談談您已簽署的增量項目的可再生能源回報，我想，自從今年早些時候提高您的回報預期以來，這些回報水平的趨勢如何？是否有持續向上的動力？

Well, we're seeing good returns from our projects, and we continue to see a market that values what we bring to our customers. So the answer to that is yes, that we continue to see -- our newer projects have been within that range towards the upper end of that range. So we feel very confident in the numbers that we've provided.

嗯，我們從我們的專案中看到了良好的回報，我們繼續看到一個重視我們為客戶帶來的東西的市場。所以答案是肯定的，我們繼續看到——我們的新項目一直在這個範圍內，接近這個範圍的上限。所以我們對我們提供的數字非常有信心。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

杜爾格甚喬普拉 (Durgesh Chopra)，Evercore ISI。

Just wanted to start off with -- just want to start off with the actual portfolio that is going to come online, not from the guidance. But in terms of the 2.8 gigawatts that's coming online this year, should we expect an uptick in that number as we go into 2025, the actual construction and getting projects online?

只是想從即將上線的實際投資組合開始，而不是從指南開始。但就今年併網的 2.8 吉瓦而言，我們是否應該期望在進入 2025 年、實際建設和項目上線時這個數字會有所上升？

Yes. So this is Steve. So we'll give that guidance in February. So there's a number of moving pieces here. I would say the largest inflection will be beyond 2025, Durgesh. And so I expect renewables will be up somewhat. But I think based on what our COD schedules look like, the largest increases will come in '26 and '27.

是的。這就是史蒂夫。因此，我們將在二月份提供該指導。所以這裡有很多移動的部分。我想說最大的拐點將在 2025 年之後出現，Durgesh。因此，我預計再生能源將會有所成長。但我認為根據我們的 COD 時間表，最大的成長將出現在 26 和 27 年。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. That's just project timing. Okay. I have two other questions. First, on the hydrogen project with APD, there may have been some changes there, with the activist involvement with the company. Just can you update us what your plan is there? How much capital might you have invested to date? And what do we do with those gigawatts coming online? Just anything you can share there, that would be helpful.

知道了。好的。這非常有幫助。這只是專案時間安排。好的。我還有兩個問題。首先，在與 APD 的氫能計畫上，隨著積極分子的參與，那裡可能發生了一些變化。您能告訴我們您的計畫嗎？迄今為止您可能已經投資了多少資金？我們如何處理這些上網的千兆瓦電力？只要您能在那裡分享的任何內容，都會很有幫助。

Sure. No, I appreciate the question. Look, we have developed a very attractive 1.5 gigawatts of renewables which, as you know, there is a market that there's a shortage of large advanced renewable projects. So we have to see when 45 V comes out and other things, how much of this goes to hydrogen. But in any case, we have a very attractive asset there.

當然。不，我很欣賞這個問題。看，我們開發了非常有吸引力的 1.5 吉瓦再生能源，正如您所知，市場上缺乏大型先進再生能源專案。因此，我們必須看看 45V 電壓何時出現以及其他因素，其中有多少會轉化為氫氣。但無論如何，我們在那裡擁有非常有吸引力的資產。

Regarding outside of the states, I do see those projects likely going forward with Asian buyers stepping up and as partners in the early part of it. So we don't have a lot of money invested other than development money that we've done. However, I think that this is probably some of the best pipeline development that we've done because it's a particularly attractive asset.

至於美國以外的地區，我確實認為這些項目可能會隨著亞洲買家的加入而推進，並在早期成為合作夥伴。因此，除了我們已經完成的開發資金之外，我們沒有投入很多資金。然而，我認為這可能是我們所做的最好的管道開發之一，因為它是一項特別有吸引力的資產。

Got it, Andres. That's very helpful. And this is part of the backlog that you show, right? The -- I believe that number is 12 now. Is that the 1.5 gig that's included in the 12?

明白了，安德烈斯。這非常有幫助。這是您展示的積壓工作的一部分，對嗎？我相信現在這個數字是 12。這是 12 中包含的 1.5 演出嗎？

No, no. We only include in our backlog, that's which is signed or awarded at the very final stage. We've never taken any project out of our backlog really. Nothing but -- so we wouldn't include it until we have a signed PA.

不，不。我們只將在最後階段簽署或授予的訂單包含在我們的積壓訂單中。我們從未真正從待辦事項中取消任何項目。只不過——所以在我們簽署 PA 之前我們不會將其包括在內。

Understood. Okay. Very clear. And then one final question, sorry for dragging for this long. Steve, just on Moody's basis, earlier in the year, we've had conversations on the methodology -- potentially a methodology change at Moody's. Maybe just update us on where you stand on Moody's basis and the latest conversations you've had with the credit rating agency?

明白了。好的。非常清楚。最後一個問題，抱歉拖了這麼久。史蒂夫，就穆迪而言，今年早些時候，我們就方法論進行了對話——穆迪可能會改變方法論。也許只是告訴我們您對穆迪的立場以及您與信用評等機構的最新對話？

Sure, Durgesh. So the dialogue continues. I do expect that they will publish an update before year-end. I characterize the conversation continuing to be very constructive. I hate to see that our credit quality has indeed improved since they gave us the initial upgrade a few years back.

當然，杜爾吉什。所以對話仍在繼續。我確實希望他們會在年底前發布更新。我認為這次對話仍然非常有建設性。我不願意看到我們的信用品質確實有所改善，因為他們幾年前給我們進行了初步升級。

What's the reality here is that we've been really transforming the portfolio, exiting markets, exiting carbon-intensive assets and rotating capital into long duration, US dollar, high creditworthy counter-parties with no fuel exposure. So we have a very, very attractive profile.

現實情況是，我們一直在真正改變投資組合，退出市場，退出碳密集型資產，並將資本轉向長期、美元、信用良好、沒有燃料風險的交易對手。所以我們有一個非常非常有魅力的形象。

I think what they're working through since Moody's looks at AES on a consolidated basis, as opposed to S&P and Fitch, which is at the parent recourse level only, they're looking at the project finance structures and how they take account of those. Project finance is amortizing when we put debt on our projects, it amortizes over the life of the contract, so there's not an exposed levered tail there. So it's a low-risk structure. It's actually investment-grade-rated debt at the project level. So it's an attractive structure, it just hasn't fit within the well within the way they define their thresholds. So they're looking at that.

我認為自從穆迪在綜合基礎上審視 AES 以來他們正在努力解決的問題，而不是標準普爾和惠譽，後者僅在母公司追索權層面，他們正在研究項目融資結構以及如何考慮這些結構。當我們把債務放在專案上時，專案融資就是攤銷，它在合約期限內攤銷，所以那裡不存在暴露的槓桿尾部。所以這是一個低風險的結構。它實際上是專案層面的投資等級債務。所以這是一個有吸引力的結構，它只是不適合他們定義閾值的方式。所以他們正在考慮這個。

They're also looking at how -- given our high growth, we have -- we carry a fairly material amount of construction debt, and that's not yet yielding. And so they're looking at that in ways to recognize that there is cash flow pending that's certain. And of course, this is nonrecourse debt as well that they're looking for adjustments along those lines as well. So I feel good about where we are. I feel really good about the conversations. And I do expect there'll be sharing their view here before the end of the year.

他們還在研究——考慮到我們的高成長——我們如何背負相當數額的建築債務，而這些債務尚未產生收益。因此，他們正在以某種方式看待這個問題，以認識到肯定存在待定的現金流。當然，這也是無追索權債務，他們也在尋求類似的調整。所以我對我們現在的處境感覺很好。我對這些談話感覺非常好。我確實希望在今年年底前大家能夠在這裡分享他們的觀點。

I would add that if you think of the sort of the big picture, overall, we continue to improve our credit profile. So we exited Brazil, which was a substantial amount of our FX, certainly a big part of our foreign interest rate exposure and weather-related exposures we learned to assume.

我想補充一點，如果你考慮一下大局，總體而言，我們將繼續改善我們的信用狀況。因此，我們退出了巴西，這是我們外匯的很大一部分，當然也是我們外國利率風險敞口和我們學會假設的與天氣相關的風險敞口的很大一部分。

So as we shut down coal plants or sell coal plants, you're changing two-year PPAs with fuel risk for really long-term 20-year PPAs with no fuel risk with investment-grade off-takers in the US. So I feel very confident that any credit rating agency looking at overall company, where we are today versus where they gave us the ratings a year or two ago, is a substantially better company.

因此，當我們關閉燃煤電廠或出售燃煤電廠時，您正在將帶有燃料風險的兩年期購電協議更改為與美國投資級承購商簽訂的真正長期的、沒有燃料風險的20 年購電協議。因此，我非常有信心，任何信用評級機構在審視整個公司時，我們今天的情況與他們一兩年前給我們的評級相比，都是一家更好的公司。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯，杰弗里斯。

Well, actually, since we're talking on the credit here, just to kick off on the nuance, just where do you see your metrics getting here? And then more specifically, do you anticipate needing to upsize the asset sales or accelerate the asset sale target to kind of true up the balance sheet for any reason here? I get the Moody's methodology is in flux, but as you think about the asset sale piece of this, any observations to make on that front since we were focused on in the second year?

好吧，實際上，既然我們在這裡討論的是信用，只是為了開始細微差別，那麼您認為您的指標在哪裡？然後更具體地說，您是否預計需要擴大資產銷售規模或加速資產銷售目標，以某種原因調整資產負債表？我知道穆迪的方法不斷變化，但當你考慮資產出售部分時，自從我們第二年關注以來，在這方面有什麼觀察嗎？

Yes. No, certainly. So I mean, the credit metrics remain strong at the parent level. And actually, things we've been doing are quite credit accretive. So some of the latest things we've done here now just closing on Brazil. Brazil, while it was generating a significant amount of EBITDA in the renewables segment, was actually producing very, very little cash. The business is highly levered, and so the sale is actually very credit accretive.

是的。不，當然。所以我的意思是，母公司層面的信用指標仍然強勁。事實上，我們一直在做的事情非常能增加信用。我們在這裡所做的一些最新的事情現在剛結束於巴西。巴西雖然在再生能源領域產生了大量的 EBITDA，但實際上產生的現金卻非常非常少。該業務槓桿率很高，因此出售實際上可以增加信用。

Similarly, with the Ohio sell-down when that closes next year, we're going to be paying down a tranche debt that's due at the holdco over $400 million. So we see that as also credit accretive and that we do, in fact, expect as a result of the transaction Ohio will be able to start paying dividends at least a year sooner than it otherwise would have.

同樣，隨著明年俄亥俄州出售結束，我們將償還控股公司到期的超過 4 億美元的債務。因此，我們認為這也會增加信貸，事實上，我們確實預計，由於交易的結果，俄亥俄州將能夠比其他情況提前至少一年開始支付股息。

So we really feel good about the trajectory. I would expect at the end of this year, the parent level metrics will be between 22% and 23%, which are well above the threshold of 20% that we have. And so yes, no, Julien, I think the asset sale program, we've had a lot of success, targeted 3.5. The universe is, in fact, bigger. So we'll see what makes sense going into the future. But I see us having a lot of runway here and that the credit metric has actually, in fact, been supported by the asset sale program.

所以我們對這個軌跡真的感覺很好。我預計到今年年底，家長層面的指標將在 22% 到 23% 之間，遠高於我們現有的 20% 的門檻。所以是的，不，朱利安，我認為資產出售計劃，我們取得了巨大的成功，目標是 3.5。事實上，宇宙更大。所以我們會看看未來什麼是有意義的。但我認為我們在這裡有很多跑道，而且信貸指標實際上得到了資產出售計劃的支持。

I'd like to sort of also say that we've always exceeded our asset sale program targets. And I would also say, quite frankly, I think we have a very good record of selling assets at good value. And what we've always been doing is maximizing the value for our shareholders and not just doing asset sales to hit a certain, let's say, megawatt or generation composition target.

我還想說，我們總是超越我們的資產出售計畫目標。坦白說，我還想說，我認為我們在以高價值出售資產方面擁有良好的記錄。我們一直在做的是最大化股東的價值，而不僅僅是進行資產出售以達到某個特定的目標，例如說兆瓦或發電構成目標。

No. Fair enough, guys. Let me pivot real quickly to Palco here, right? We saw your peers to the north with NIPSCO. NiSource gave a very robust update. You guys are talking about 3 gigawatts of procurement activity. I know you guys already had a team's trajectory articulated at the Analyst Day last year, but I suspect that number is potentially meaningfully higher or potentially extend out for meaningfully greater duration given, a, the 3 gigawatts and b, the baseline of the rate base at Palco here. If you can speak a little bit to what your expectations on what total portion that you can own and how it impacts your financials here?

不。很公平，夥計們。讓我快速轉向帕爾科，對吧？我們看到了北方的 NIPSCO 同行。NiSource 給了非常強大的更新。你們談論的是 3 吉瓦的採購活動。我知道你們已經在去年的分析師日闡明了團隊的發展軌跡，但我懷疑這個數字可能會更高，或者可能會延長更長的持續時間，a 是 3 吉瓦，b 是費率基礎的基線在帕爾科這裡。您能否談談您對自己可以擁有的總份額的期望以及它對您的財務狀況有何影響？

Okay. So look, I mean the rate case this year was resolved early settled early and approved early. So we had a significant increase over $70 million annual increase. And so that is driving a significant year-over-year. We'll have a full year of the new rates next year.

好的。所以看，我的意思是今年的費率案件提前解決並提前批准。因此，我們的年增幅顯著超過 7,000 萬美元。因此，這推動了同比的顯著增長。明年我們將實施一整年的新費率。

And then as Andres described in his comments, we're once RFP for a lot of new generation in the utility. It will go into the integrated resource plan to be filed next year. And we're talking -- I think we said in the last call, 3 gigawatts total, and that's increasing of data center load across the utilities, in addition to what we've already signed.

然後，正如安德烈斯在他的評論中所描述的那樣，我們曾經為公用事業公司的許多新一代提供了 RFP。它將納入明年提交的綜合資源計劃。我們正在討論——我想我們在上次電話會議中說過，總共 3 吉瓦，除了我們已經簽署的協議之外，這還增加了公用事業公司的數據中心負載。

So there's a -- I would say, what we guided to is double-digit rate base growth across the utilities. It's going to be much higher than that. So we'll give more guidance in '25, Julien, but -- given what we're seeing, the utility investment is going to increase, the returns are going to increase, the rate base will increase. And that's also part of why we also sold down Ohio.

因此，我想說，我們的指導目標是公用事業部門實現兩位數的利率基礎成長。它會比這個高得多。因此，朱利安，我們將在 25 年提供更多指導，但是 - 鑑於我們所看到的，公用事業投資將會增加，回報將會增加，利率基礎將會增加。這也是我們出售俄亥俄州的部分原因。

Because although we're selling down 30%, in fact, our investment in the utilities is increasing. So this sell-down is allowing us to improve credit, get to earlier distributions from the utility, it will improve the credit quality in Ohio and it helps fund a much bigger investment program than even we anticipated a year ago. And our net investment, even though we're at 70% ownership in both utilities, is going to be even higher. So that's how I would look at it.

因為雖然我們的售價下降了 30%，但實際上我們對公用事業的投資正在增加。因此，這次拋售使我們能夠改善信貸，從公用事業公司獲得更早的分配，這將提高俄亥俄州的信貸質量，並有助於為比我們一年前預期的更大的投資計劃提供資金。儘管我們擁有兩家公用事業公司 70% 的所有權，但我們的淨投資將會更高。這就是我的看法。

And of course, in Indiana, it's an integrated utility. So not only do we have the load on the network, but we also have the generation piece to supply as well. So we see a lot of generation growth.

當然，在印第安納州，它是一家綜合公用事業公司。因此，我們不僅有網路負載，而且還有發電部件要供電。所以我們看到了很多世代的成長。

Right. So even the medium-term rate base growth CAGR, it could potentially be heading higher is what I'm hearing. But actually, you made allusion to one thing here, if I can just clarify. You'll be providing an updated outlook here on the fourth quarter. And I know that there's a lot of different things that are moving around in the plan. So as you guys have done historically, expect that kind of integrated update here on 4Q roll forward from the Analyst Day?

正確的。因此，據我所知，即使是中期利率基礎成長複合年增長率，也可能會走高。但實際上，你在這裡提到了一件事，如果我能澄清一下。您將在此處提供第四季度的最新展望。我知道計劃中有很多不同的事情正在發生。因此，正如你們歷史上所做的那樣，期望從分析師日開始在第四季度滾動進行這種綜合更新嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Yes, we will update you on our long term for -- in February.

是的，絕對是。是的，我們將在二月向您通報我們的長期計劃。

Angie Storozynski, Seaport.

安吉·斯托羅辛斯基，海港。

So I just wanted to focus on the renewable power wisdom. So the one without credits for cash EBITDA, I would call it. So I'm looking at these results. I mean you will be basically flat since 2022. And now it looks like 2025 is going to be also like 620, 630 range.

所以我只想關注再生能源的智慧。因此，我將其稱為沒有現金 EBITDA 的信用。所以我正在看這些結果。我的意思是，自 2022 年以來，你將基本持平。現在看來 2025 年也將是 620、630 系列。

So I mean I understand that there are one-off items that weighed on this year's EBITDA, which is going to be even lower than the number I just mentioned. So I mean there has to be some growth in that number. And I hear you Steve, that there will be some in '26, '27, but you're making very substantial investments, and we're not seeing growth in that cash renewable EBITDA.

所以我的意思是，我知道有一些一次性項目對今年的 EBITDA 產生了影響，這將比我剛才提到的數字還要低。所以我的意思是這個數字必須有一些成長。我聽說史蒂夫，26 年、27 年會有一些投資，但你正在進行非常大量的投資，而我們沒有看到現金再生 EBITDA 的成長。

Now the reason I'm actually asking about it is because if you look at the parent free cash flow, parent distributions, I mean the vast majority of them come from energy infrastructure, but that's a segment that is shrinking. So I will have to rely on cash distributions from renewables very soon in order to hit the free cash flow expectations. So I'm just hoping that we can reconcile this.

現在我實際上問這個問題的原因是因為如果你看看母公司的自由現金流、母公司的分配，我的意思是其中絕大多數來自能源基礎設施，但這是一個正在萎縮的部分。因此，我很快就不得不依賴再生能源的現金分配，以達到自由現金流預期。所以我只是希望我們能夠調和這個問題。

Yes. First, we're not saying that the renewable EBITDA will grow substantially in 2025. And what you have is the fact that we're selling Brazil. That's 5 gigawatts, so -- which are having a little bit of apples and oranges here. So we're seeing the operating results from our renewable build, absolutely in where we think it should be. So it is -- there's a number of things going on here, Angie, that we can -- time will clarify. But I don't think that it's -- you can say that we're not getting the results from the investments that we're making. It's just moving.

是的。首先，我們並不是說可再生 EBITDA 將在 2025 年大幅成長。事實上，我們正​​在出售巴西。那是 5 吉瓦，所以——這裡有一些蘋果和橘子。因此，我們看到了再生能源建設的營運結果，絕對達到了我們認為應該達到的水平。所以，安吉，這裡發生了很多事情，我們可以——時間會澄清的。但我不認為——你可以說我們沒有從我們正在進行的投資中得到結果。它只是在移動。

And then second, on the energy infrastructure, yes, I mean, we have a balanced portfolio. So we tend to have that event in one spot, offset by good events in the other. And this was a particular quarter where really a lot of things came together that normally don't come together.

其次，在能源基礎設施方面，是的，我的意思是，我們有一個平衡的投資組合。因此，我們傾向於在一個地方發生該事件，而在另一個地方發生好的事件來抵消。這是一個特殊的季度，確實發生了很多通常不會發生的事情。

So normally, if you have conditions, you have more win. This time we had both. But what we also had was sort of all the years rain came in a very short period of time and damage of 1 gigawatt hydro, so I think we really did have sort of onetime events, and I think you're drawing sort of longer-term conclusions from that. I'll pass it to Steve.

所以通常情況下，如果你有條件，你贏的機會就更多。這次我們兩者都有。但我們也遇到了多年來的降雨在很短的時間內到來以及 1 吉瓦水力發電的損壞，所以我認為我們確實遇到了一次性事件，而且我認為你畫的時間有點長-由此得出的術語結論。我會把它交給史蒂夫。

Yes. I would just say, Angie, the only reason we're down year-over-year is because of the record drought. The only material reason is because of the record drought, primarily Colombia and to a degree, Brazil as well. So those conditions are known to be changing, moving to La Niña. Obviously, Brazil is out of the portfolio.

是的。我只想說，安吉，我們同比下降的唯一原因是創紀錄的干旱。唯一的實質原因是創紀錄的乾旱，主要是哥倫比亞，在某種程度上也包括巴西。因此，已知這些條件正在發生變化，轉向拉尼娜現象。顯然，巴西已被排除在外。

So Colombia, we do expect returning to much more normal conditions next year. And don't forget, we also had an extremely high third quarter last year in Colombia, unusually high. So it makes the year-over-year comparison look more extreme. But what's the reality is the US growth is significant. And so this year and even higher into next year, more than overcoming the loss of Brazil from the renewables segment. So the renewables growth will be very material this year.

因此，哥倫比亞確實預計明年會恢復到更正常的狀態。別忘了，去年哥倫比亞第三季的業績也非常高，異常高。因此，這使得同比比較看起來更加極端。但現實是美國的成長是顯著的。因此，今年乃至明年，巴西在再生能源領域的損失將不只是彌補。因此，今年再生能源的成長將非常重要。

So we get that we're not on track at this point with the guidance for -- if you were to straight line the guidance, but we're picking up substantially into next year and are reaffirming through 2027 that 19% to 21% growth rate, and that's largely driven by all of this US growth, which is taking off.

因此，我們知道，如果您要直線指導的話，我們目前還沒有走上正軌，但我們將在明年大幅加快，並重申到 2027 年將實現 19% 至 21% 的增長率，這在很大程度上是由美國經濟的起飛所推動的。

As I said, we have added a total of 3 gigawatts of renewables across the across the year since Q3 of last year. We also will ultimately move Chile into the renewables segment where it belongs as we execute on our coal exit. So the cash from this renewables segment will grow accordingly as well, and the EBITDA will be on track with that growth rate.

正如我所說，自去年第三季以來，我們全年新增再生能源總量達 3 吉瓦。隨著我們執行煤炭退出計劃，我們最終也將把智利帶入它所屬的可再生能源領域。因此，來自該再生能源領域的現金也將相應成長，並且 EBITDA 將與此成長率保持一致。

Okay. So let me just push back the latter, meaning that Chile was supposed to be additive to the growth trajectory that you were showing at the Analyst Day. And now that we see the results, like year-over-year changes versus '23 results, you clearly point out that the second half of '23 had some big onetime benefits, which you could not have counted on during your '23 Analyst Day, and yet you came below your expectations, even the low end on renewables EBITDA for '23.

好的。因此，讓我反駁後者，這意味著智利應該對您在分析師日展示的成長軌跡有所貢獻。現在我們看到了結果，例如與 23 年結果相比的同比變化，您清楚地指出 23 下半年有一些巨大的一次性收益，這是您在 23 分析師日期間無法指望的，但您的表現卻低於您的預期，甚至是23 年再生能源EBITDA 的低端。

So again, I mean I hear you that there is growth in the US portfolio, which will benefit the EBITDA, but again, I mean, you had some big positives in the second half of '23, which you could not have expected when you were giving guidance on '23 on renewables and you came below expectations on renewables in '23 now. So why should I have conviction that the same is not going to true in future years?

再說一次，我的意思是，我聽到你說美國投資組合有所增長，這將有利於EBITDA，但我的意思是，你在23 年下半年看到了一些重大的積極因素，這是你無法預料到的我們正在為 23 年的可再生能源提供指導，但現在您對 23 年可再生能源的預期低於預期。那麼，為什麼我應該相信未來幾年不會出現同樣的情況呢？

Well, we feel confident we're going to hit the long-range growth that we talked about. I mean it has to do with reaching critical mass on some of these things. And certainly, we can have onetime weather events.

嗯，我們對實現我們談到的長期成長充滿信心。我的意思是，這與在其中一些事情上達到臨界質量有關。當然，我們可能會遇到一次性的天氣事件。

But I think the important thing is what returns are you actually seeing from the projects you're bringing online? What is the value of the PPAs you are signing? And as we move forward, it will be easier to make apples-and-apples comparisons as we have the same portfolio new year.

但我認為重要的是您從上線的項目中實際看到了什麼回報？您正在簽署的購電協議的價值是多少？隨著我們的前進，進行同類比較將會變得更加容易，因為我們在新的一年擁有相同的投資組合。

Yes. The other thing I would say, Angie, is referring to last year, we did end up having more of our commissionings very late in the year, in fact, most in December. So a little later than expected this year. We have substantially changed that trend. And so the renewable commissionings were much more really spread throughout the year. That's why we've already recognized $900 million of tax attributes already. So I think that's another reason that, that program has become more mature and spread throughout the year that we're seeing a better result, and that 23 was lower.

是的。安吉，我要說的另一件事是指去年，我們確實在今年晚些時候進行了更多的調試，事實上，大部分是在 12 月。所以今年比預期晚了一點。我們已經大大改變了這個趨勢。因此，再生能源調試在全年中更加分散。這就是為什麼我們已經確認了 9 億美元的稅收屬性。所以我認為這是另一個原因，該計劃變得更加成熟並在全年中傳播，我們看到了更好的結果，而 23 較低。

And just one other question. So I'm looking at your guidance here on the free cash flow for the parent for the year. It seems like you are expecting about $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in distributions from subsidiary and you are at about 800, 880, I forget. So is this apples-to-apples, meaning that I am basically 50% of distributions, meaning that the fourth quarter will be the big catch-up on distributions?

還有一個問題。因此，我正在查看您對本年度母公司自由現金流的指導。看來你預期子公司會分配大約 15 億到 16 億美元，而你的數字大約是 800、880，我忘了。那麼這是同類的情況嗎？

Yes, but that's a normal trend. So that's -- we've been having that type of seasonality for a long time. And I would say, in most cases, the cash is already sitting there. It's based on the windows in time relative to our debt service that we're also allowed to pay dividends. So we have clear visibility into the remaining dividend. It's just a matter of timing at this point as to when they get released on the periodic twice a year, once a year in some cases. So I'm very, very confident in the distribution level.

是的，但這是正常趨勢。所以，我們長期以來一直存在這種季節性。我想說，在大多數情況下，現金已經在那裡了。它基於相對於我們還本付息的時間窗口，我們也可以支付股息。因此我們對剩餘股息有清楚的了解。目前，它們何時定期發布只是時間問題，每年兩次，在某些情況下每年一次。所以我對發行水準非常非常有信心。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

麥可‧沙利文，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes, I know that kind of got passed through a bunch there on the last line of questions or commentary, I guess. Just to make it simple, like you keep talking about significant growth in '25. We obviously don't know what that means exactly. But you have this 5% to 7% EBITDA CAGR off of '23. When do you get inside of that within your plan?

是的，我想，我知道在最後一行問題或​​評論中已經通過了一堆這樣的內容。簡單來說，就像您一直在談論 25 年的顯著增長一樣。我們顯然不知道這到底意味著什麼。但 23 年的 EBITDA 複合年增長率為 5% 至 7%。你什麼時候把它納入你的計劃中？

Yes. So again, we'll give an update in February. The early years as we have been executing on the transformation and things like the Brazil exit, we'll have the Vietnam exit next year. We had the Warrior Run shutdown, and so that goes away. So that weighs on the early years, but the trajectory, as I said, there's more of an inflection point beyond next year, overall, getting through the 2027.

是的。同樣，我們將在二月提供更新。早年，我們一直在執行轉型，例如退出巴西，明年我們將退出越南。我們關閉了“勇士奔跑”，所以這一切都消失了。因此，這對前幾年造成了壓力，但正如我所說，總體而言，從明年開始到 2027 年，軌跡上還有更多的轉折點。

Period. So what's happening is that the renewables will grow significantly next year. The utilities will grow significantly, catching back up to closer to that level of return of growth that we've been expecting, but the energy infrastructure shrinking has been a little more front-end loaded. And then the Brazil sale, obviously, is a headwind in renewables in the near term, but we're more -- significantly more than offsetting it next year. So that's how I would characterize it.

時期。因此，明年再生能源將大幅成長。公用事業將顯著成長，追趕到更接近我們預期的成長回報水平，但能源基礎設施的萎縮已經造成了更多的前端負載。顯然，巴西的銷售在短期內對再生能源來說是一個逆風，但我們明年的抵消作用遠不止於此。這就是我對它的描述。

We feel good about the growth rate overall, but it's influenced by how we execute on the transformation as well as the growth, and the transformation shows up in the shrinking of the energy infrastructure. So that's how I would characterize it.

我們對整體成長率感覺良好，但這受到我們如何執行轉型和成長的影響，而轉型體現在能源基礎設施的萎縮上。這就是我對它的描述。

And so we'll give more in February. But again, I feel really good about the renewables and the utilities. And then the energy infrastructure will look at choices we have around how fast to continue the transformation and discuss that in February.

因此，我們將在二月提供更多。但同樣，我對再生能源和公用事業感覺非常好。然後能源基礎設施將考慮我們對繼續轉型的速度的選擇，並在二月進行討論。

Okay. That's very helpful, Steve. And then I had two ones just on your resource additions. The first, just in terms of looking at new gas at the utility, do you see that in the RFP? Or is that not until the IRP? And do you have a good handle on how much you could look to be doing in gas?

好的。這非常有幫助，史蒂夫。然後我有兩個關於您添加的資源的內容。首先，就公用事業公司的新天然氣而言，您在 RFP 中看到了嗎？或直到 IRP 才開始？您是否清楚自己可以在汽油上花費多少？

And then on the nonutility side, you all have traditionally been pretty solar heavy though I think you mentioned wind a few times just in terms of supply chain. But when I look at you and your peers, it doesn't seem like anyone's adding too much wind these days. So just curious what you're seeing on that front?

然後在非公用事業方面，你們傳統上都非常重視太陽能，儘管我認為你們在供應鏈方面多次提到了風能。但當我看看你和你的同齡人時，這些天似乎沒有人添加太多的風。所以只是好奇你在這方面看到了什麼？

Yes. On your first question, that would be really waiting for the IRP. So we certainly are looking at all options. So it will be likely a mix of renewables and some thermal, of course, batteries as well.

是的。關於你的第一個問題，那確實是在等待 IRP。所以我們當然正在考慮所有的選擇。因此，它很可能是可再生能源和一些熱能的混合，當然還有電池。

Now regarding the second question in wind. Well, we were -- we had been building quite a lot of wind in Brazil. But a lot of the projects that we have in the pipeline have a considerable amount of wind. So if you think of the -- what's been known as sort of the green hydrogen project in Texas, 1.5 giga, that's primarily wind. So we'll have a more of a balance in the US between wind and solar in future years.

現在關於風中的第二個問題。嗯，我們一直在巴西建造大量風電。但我們正在籌備的許多項目都擁有大量的風能。因此，如果你想到德克薩斯州所謂的 1.5 兆綠氫項目，那主要是風能。因此，未來幾年美國的風能和太陽能將更加平衡。

Levine, Citi.

萊文，花旗。

What is the time line for the $92 million Colombia impact to return to historic norms? And what is the risk to achieving this ramp at this stage in the year?

哥倫比亞 9,200 萬美元的影響何時恢復到歷史正常水準？今年現階段實現這項成長的風險是什麼？

Yes. So conditions are already improving. The fourth quarter, in fact, I expect will be higher in Colombia than last year, Ryan. And all forecasts point to La Niña being highly probable over the next couple of months and lasting well into next year. So it's pretty much turning around now.

是的。所以條件已經在改善。事實上，我預計哥倫比亞第四季的業績將高於去年，瑞安。所有預測都表明，拉尼娜現象極有可能在未來幾個月內出現，並持續到明年。所以現在情況已經基本扭轉了。

Again, I expect the fourth quarter to be higher. And then throughout next year, I expect Colombia to be higher in this year overall. So Colombia has been -- and it was $92 million in the quarter alone. It's $130 million down year-to-date over prior year. So that is the single largest driver here, and it shows up in the renewables segment. But the US growth is doing hard work to offset that and significantly overcome overcomes it in the fourth quarter here and into next year.

我再次預計第四季會更高。然後整個明年，我預計哥倫比亞今年的整體表現會更高。哥倫比亞也是如此——僅本季就達到了 9,200 萬美元。今年迄今比前一年減少了 1.3 億美元。所以這是這裡最大的驅動因素，它出現在再生能源領域。但美國經濟成長正在努力抵消這一影響，並在第四季度和明年顯著克服這一影響。

Yes. I would add we had a two-month outage. Yes. So the truth is that outage was at the worst possible time because if we hadn't had the outage because we had a rain, which was 25% higher than anything prior previously recorded, we could have used that water to very good results subsequently in the drought. So being out for two months is -- that's part of the recovery.

是的。我想補充一下，我們有兩個月的停電。是的。所以事實是，停電是在最糟糕的時間發生的，因為如果我們沒有因為下雨而停電，降雨量比之前記錄的要高25%，我們本可以利用這些水在隨後的項目中取得非常好的效果。所以缺席兩個月是恢復的一部分。

Okay. So then by 2026, you should be back to a more normal performance?

好的。那麼到2026年，你應該會恢復到更正常的表現吧？

No, '25, Ryan. So the conditions are already improving. We expect this quarter, fourth quarter to be higher than last year. And next year, in 2025, we expect normal to better hydrology from the La Niña.

不，25歲，瑞安。所以條件已經在改善。我們預計本季、第四季將高於去年。明年，即 2025 年，我們預期拉尼娜現象的水文狀況將變得正常或更好。

Okay. And then maybe switching gears, as you referenced in your prepared comments, impact to California spark spreads, are you looking to change your hedging strategy there? Or any color you could share around the outlook going forward for the Southland?

好的。然後也許會改變方向，正如您在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，對加州火花利差的影響，您是否希望改變那裡的對沖策略？或者您可以分享關於南部地區未來前景的任何顏色嗎？

Yes. So just -- as a reminder, the Southland structure has a 20-year contract for capacity and energy. So we have a very known monetization stream. It is at our election annually a year in advance to decide whether we want to market the energy ourselves and hedge it or put it to the uptake or under the PPA.

是的。提醒一下，Southland 結構有一份為期 20 年的容量和能源合約。所以我們有一個非常知名的獲利流。我們每年提前一年進行選舉，以決定我們是否要自行行銷能源並對其進行對沖，或將其納入吸收或根據購電協議進行。

So for '24 we did previously decide, at the end of '22, to call the energy to us and to market it. Unfortunately, spark spreads changed significantly during the time that we made that decision, and we're executing on the hedge program. And so we had downtime this year. But still relative to the put value, still a good decision. And so we have made that decision also for 2025 that we will market the energy. We are over 95% hedged already at values well in excess of the put value.

因此，對於 24 年，我們之前確實決定在 22 年底將能源呼叫給我們並進行行銷。不幸的是，在我們做出該決定期間，火花價差發生了顯著變化，我們正在執行對沖計劃。所以今年我們遇到了停工。但相對於看跌期權價值，仍然是一個不錯的決定。因此，我們也做出了 2025 年銷售能源的決定。我們已經對超過 95% 的產品進行了對沖，其價值遠遠超過了看跌期權的價值。

So it -- the market has changed. The market has compressed a lot due to better hydro conditions. What we've had is milder weather. There's been a lot more battery penetration in California. So the market value is not as high over the long term as it had been back in '22 when we first made that decision. But nonetheless, we see, overall, the strategy is -- has been increasing or has added over the put is just not as much as we expected when we gave the guidance, unfortunately.

所以市場已經改變了。由於水力條件較好，市場已大幅壓縮。我們經歷的是溫和的天氣。加州的電池普及率要高得多。因此，從長遠來看，市場價值並不像 22 年我們第一次做出這個決定時那麼高。但儘管如此，我們看到，總體而言，該策略一直在增加或增加，但不幸的是，看跌期權的數量沒有我們給出指導時的預期那麼多。

So then as a follow-up, given that framework and your decisions for next year, is there any color around -- any direction of travel for that asset's performance for '25 given what your parties decided?

那麼，作為後續行動，考慮到該框架和您明年的決定，考慮到您各方的決定，該資產在 25 年的表現是否有任何色彩？

Yes. I mean I would say, at this point, since we've already decided on '25, it is in excess of the put value. And we're already nearly 100% hedged, 95% hedged, as I said. So it the value is lower than it was in the original guidance, but still above had we taken a no-risk strategy.

是的。我的意思是，我想說，在這一點上，因為我們已經決定了 25 年，所以它超出了看跌期權價值。正如我所說，我們已經實現了近 100% 的對沖，95% 的對沖。因此，該值低於原始指導中的值，但如果我們採取無風險策略，則仍高於該值。

And then for 2026, we have not yet made that decision. And we'll have to here later in the fourth quarter, and we'll update you all on that later. And that will be based just upon what we see in the hedge market at the time relative to the put value.

至於 2026 年，我們還沒有做出這個決定。我們將不得不在第四季晚些時候來到這裡，稍後我們將向大家通報最新情況。這將基於我們當時在對沖市場上看到的相對於看跌期權的價值。

Richard Sunderland, J.P. Morgan.

理查桑德蘭，摩根大通。

I know you've covered a lot of ground. Just one quick cleanup. You've talked at various points about asset sale program and how you've thought about timing that and affecting that it sounds like more to come on year-end around that. But just curious how you're thinking about monetizing the new energy technologies investments? And if that's something that should fall within the planned period? Any thoughts there.

我知道您已經了解了很多內容。只需進行一次快速清理即可。您曾多次談到資產出售計劃，以及您如何考慮該計劃的時機和影響，聽起來似乎會在年底左右實施更多計劃。但只是好奇您如何考慮將新能源技術投資貨幣化？如果這應該屬於計劃期限內的事情？有任何想法。

When you think about the new energy technologies, look, what we've talked about is through 2027. And we approached these strategically. So what we've always said is that we will monetize these assets when we feel it's appropriate. And when we are out of long-term venture capitalist investors. So we'll monetize them at the right time when we don't think we're adding a lot of value.

當你想到新能源技術時，你看，我們談論的是 2027 年。我們從戰略上解決了這些問題。所以我們一直說的是，當我們認為對的時候，我們就會將這些資產貨幣化。當我們退出長期風險資本投資者。因此，當我們認為我們沒有增加很多價值時，我們會在適當的時候將它們貨幣化。

And we've already done some monetization and taking some money off the table. So it's been a very successful program. And I think there's a lot more value there than is being recognized by most of the parts. But what I would say is that so long as we add a lot of value, we'll stay in.

我們已經做了一些貨幣化工作，並從桌面上拿走了一些錢。所以這是一個非常成功的計劃。我認為那裡的價值比大多數人所認識到的要大得多。但我想說的是，只要我們能增加很多價值，我們就會留下來。

However, we'll continue to opportunistically monetize. And certainly, we're well ahead of our plan for 2027. But as Steve mentioned, the universe is greater. So it would include some things from new energy technologies.

然而，我們將繼續機會主義地貨幣化。當然，我們遠遠超出了 2027 年的計劃。但正如史蒂夫所說，宇宙更廣闊。所以它會包括一些來自新能源技術的東西。

There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So I'll turn the call back over to Susan Harcourt for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題等待。因此，我將把電話轉回給蘇珊哈考特 (Susan Harcourt) 作結束語。

We thank everybody for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any follow-up questions you may have. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Financial Conference later this month. Thank you, and have a nice day.

我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，IR 團隊將隨時回答您可能提出的任何後續問題。我們期待在本月稍後的 EEI 金融會議上見到你們。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。我希望您度過愉快的一天。