愛依斯電力 (AES) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and a warm welcome to the AES Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial review call. My name is Emily, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，熱烈歡迎參加 AES 公司 2024 年第四季和全年財務審查電話會議。我叫艾米麗，今天我將負責協調您的通話。（操作員指令）

I will now hand over to Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Susan, you may begin.

現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Susan Harcourt。蘇珊，你可以開始啦。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial review call. Our press release, presentation, and related financial information are available on our website at aes.com.

謝謝您，接線生。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財務回顧電話會議。我們的新聞稿、簡報和相關財務資訊可在我們的網站 aes.com 上查閱。

Today, we will be making forward-looking statements. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements which are disclosed in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website along with the presentation.

今天，我們將做出前瞻性的聲明。有許多因素可能導致未來結果與我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中揭露的這些聲明有重大差異。您可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的對帳表以及簡報。

Joining me this morning are Andrés Gluski, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer; Ricardo Falú, our Chief Operating Officer, and other senior members of our management team. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrés.

今天早上與我一起參加的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Andrés Gluski；史蒂夫‧考夫林 (Steve Coughlin)，我們的財務長；我們的營運長 Ricardo Falú 以及我們管理團隊的其他高階成員。說完這些，我會把電話轉給安德烈斯。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial review call.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財務審查電話會議。

Today, I will cover our 2024 accomplishments, the resiliency of our business and our 2025 guidance and longer-term outlook. Steve Coughlin, our CFO, will provide more details on our financial performance and expectations after my remarks.

今天，我將介紹我們 2024 年所取得的成就、業務的彈性以及 2025 年的指導和長期展望。在我發言之後，我們的財務長史蒂夫·考夫林 (Steve Coughlin) 將提供有關我們的財務業績和預期的更多詳細資訊。

To say that we are extremely disappointed with our stock price performance is an understatement. Steve and I will address what we believe to be investors' concerns. Including policy uncertainties, renewable EBITDA growth and balance sheets and funding constraints. We will review why renewables are critical to meeting growing demand for electricity, particularly among technology customers, and why our business model is relatively well insulated from and resilient to potential regulatory changes.

說我們對股價的表現極為失望，這還只是輕描淡寫。史蒂夫和我將解決我們認為投資者關心的問題。包括政策不確定性、可再生 EBITDA 成長以及資產負債表和資金限制。我們將回顧為什麼再生能源對於滿足日益增長的電力需求（特別是技術客戶的需求）至關重要，以及為什麼我們的商業模式相對而言能夠很好地抵禦和恢復潛在的監管變化。

Even with our resilient position, we are taking immediate steps to strengthen our financial position and outlook. These steps include reducing our parent investment in renewables by focusing on the highest risk adjusted return projects, improving organizational efficiency and continuing to operate some of our energy infrastructure assets. As a result of these actions, we expect to improve our credit metrics over time while eliminating the need for issuing new equity during the forecast period and maintaining our dividends.

即使我們處於穩健的地位，我們仍在立即採取措施，加強我們的財務狀況和前景。這些舉措包括透過專注於風險調整回報最高的項目來減少母公司對再生能源的投資，提高組織效率並繼續運營我們的部分能源基礎設施資產。透過採取這些措施，我們預計我們的信用指標將隨著時間的推移而改善，同時消除預測期內發行新股的需要並維持我們的股息。

Turning to slide 4. Let me start with our 2024 results.

翻到幻燈片 4。讓我先來談談我們 2024 年的業績。

We signed 4.4 gigawatts of new power purchase agreements for renewables last year. Our performance in 2024 puts us on track to achieve our goal of signing 14 to 17 gigawatts of new PPAs through 2025. We are prioritizing signing those contracts with the best risk adjusted returns rather than just maximizing growth in gigawatts.

去年我們簽署了4.4千兆瓦的再生能源新購電協議。我們在 2024 年的表現使我們有望實現到 2025 年簽署 14 至 17 千兆瓦新 PPA 的目標。我們優先簽署那些具有最佳風險調整回報的合同，而不僅僅是最大化千兆瓦的成長。

In 2024, we also completed the construction or acquisition of 3 gigawatts of renewables and a 670 megawatt combined cycle gas plant in Panama, greatly increasing the utilization of our existing LNG terminal in that country. Our best-in-class record of on time and on budget delivery of renewable projects is something that our customers value highly and is one of our competitive advantages. Lastly, I should note that in 2024 we received approval from the Indiana Regulatory Commission for new base rates and an ROE of 9.9%, supporting an investment program that will improve reliability for our customers and support local economic development.

2024年，我們還在巴拿馬完成了3吉瓦再生能源和670兆瓦聯合循環燃氣廠的建設或收購，大大提高了我們在該國現有液化天然氣終端的利用率。我們在按時、按預算交付再生能源專案方面擁有一流的記錄，這是客戶高度重視的，也是我們的競爭優勢之一。最後，我要指出的是，2024 年我們獲得了印第安納州監管委員會批准的新基準利率和 9.9% 的 ROE，支持了一項旨在提高客戶可靠性並支持當地經濟發展的投資計畫。

Now, moving to our financial results.

現在，我們來看看我們的財務表現。

In 2024, we achieved adjusted EBITDA of $2.64 billion, which is in the lower half of our guidance range as a result of extreme one-time weather-related events in Colombia and Brazil. With both businesses down, a combined $200 million year on year.

2024 年，我們實現的調整後 EBITDA 為 26.4 億美元，由於哥倫比亞和巴西的一次性極端天氣事件，該數字處於我們指導範圍的下半部分。由於兩項業務均下滑，年比損失合計 2 億美元。

Nonetheless, we generated parent fee cash flow of $1.1 billion, which is at the midpoint of our guidance. And we earned a record adjusted EPS of $2.14 which is materially above our guidance range and puts us well on track to achieve our annualized growth target of 7% to 9% from 2020 to 2025.

儘管如此，我們還是產生了 11 億美元的家長費用現金流，這處於我們預期的中間值。我們的調整後每股收益達到了創紀錄的 2.14 美元，大大高於我們的指導範圍，並使我們有望實現 2020 年至 2025 年 7% 至 9% 的年化增長目標。

Moving to our renewables business on slide 5.

前往投影片 5 上的我們的再生能源業務。

2025 will be an inflection point as we begin to realize the financial benefits from the maturing of our renewable business, including the addition of 6.6 gigawatts we inaugurated in 2023 and 2024. We're able to achieve increasing economies of scale that reduce our overhead per megawatt, as we now have 16.2 gigawatts of renewables online versus 5.9 gigawatts in 2018, excluding Brazil. At the same time, our development business is becoming more efficient as we are now harvesting the investments we made in creating our pipeline.

2025 年將是一個轉捩點，因為我們將開始實現再生能源業務成熟帶來的財務利益，包括我們在 2023 年和 2024 年新增的 6.6 千兆瓦。我們能夠實現規模經濟的不斷增長，從而降低每兆瓦的管理費用，因為我們現在擁有 16.2 千兆瓦的可再生能源，而 2018 年（巴西除外）為 5.9 千兆瓦。同時，我們的開發業務變得更加高效，因為我們現在正在收穫創建管道所做的投資。

Furthermore, as profitability of each megawatt of new PPA sign has substantially increased, we do not need to bring online as many new projects to achieve the same level of financial growth. This strategy allows us to focus on the most profitable new projects while reducing costs and capital requirements, as I will shortly discuss.

此外，由於新簽訂的每兆瓦電力購買協議（PPA）的獲利能力大幅提升，我們不需要上線那麼多新專案就能實現相同水準的財務成長。這個策略使我們能夠專注於最賺錢的新項目，同時降低成本和資本要求，我稍後將討論這一點。

There is a time lag between renewables development expenditures which flow through the P&L and growth in EBITDA. Creating a pipeline of potential projects requires expenditures in development activities such as scouting for prospects, negotiating land purchases or leases, measuring the wind or sun resource, and finally, obtaining permits. As our renewables are in a more mature state, our financials will start to reflect the true profitability of the business as new projects coming online, producing cash in EBITDA cover the cost of early-stage projects.

流入損益表的再生能源開發支出與 EBITDA 成長之間存在時間差。創建潛在專案管道需要在開發活動上支出，例如尋找前景、協商土地購買或租賃、測量風能或太陽能資源，以及最終獲得許可證。隨著我們的再生能源更加成熟，隨著新專案的上線，我們的財務狀況將開始反映業務的真實獲利能力，EBITDA 產生的現金將涵蓋早期專案的成本。

As the business grows, stewardship, including administrative and back-office activities, will get allocated over a larger operating base. This inflection in our life cycle starting in 2025 will strengthen our credit metrics as we achieve a higher ratio of projects online selling energy versus spending on pipeline and projects under construction.

隨著業務的成長，包括行政和後台活動在內的管理工作將分配給更大的營運基地。從 2025 年開始，我們的生命週期將發生轉變，這將加強我們的信用指標，因為我們的線上銷售能源專案的比例高於用於管道和在建專案的支出。

With this background, let me turn to our financial expectations for our renewables business.

在此背景下，讓我來談談我們對再生能源業務的財務預期。

In 2025, we expect over 60% year-over-year growth in our renewables EBITDA, which Steve will discuss in more detail. Previous growth in our US renewables portfolio drives the majority of our expected EBITDA growth. And in 2025, we expect to bring online another 3.2 gigawatts of renewable capacity, which will contribute to strong EBITDA growth in 2026 and beyond. These numbers also reflect the maturing of our US renewable business as we harvest the investments we made to create our 50 gigawatt US pipeline.

到 2025 年，我們預計再生能源 EBITDA 將年增 60% 以上，史蒂夫將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們美國再生能源投資組合先前的成長推動了我們預期 EBITDA 的大部分成長。到 2025 年，我們預計將再上線 3.2 千兆瓦的再生能源容量，這將促進 2026 年及以後 EBITDA 的強勁成長。這些數字也反映出，隨著我們為打造 50 吉瓦美國管道而進行的投資獲得回報，我們的美國再生能源業務日趨成熟。

Finally, I should note that our 2025 renewable segment guidance incorporates some changes in segment makeup, including the sale of 5.2 gigawatts in Brazil last year and the addition of 2.5 gigawatts in Chile. As the business has evolved, these Chilean renewable assets have now been moved from the energy infrastructure SPU to the renewables SPU. The sale of Brazil is an important de-risking of our portfolio as we have eliminated a significant portion of our hydrology, currency, spot price, and floating interest rate risk exposures.

最後，我應該指出，我們 2025 年可再生能源部門指導納入了一些部門組成的變化，包括去年在巴西銷售 5.2 千兆瓦以及在智利增加 2.5 千兆瓦。隨著業務的發展，這些智利再生資產現已從能源基礎設施 SPU 轉移到再生能源 SPU。出售巴西資產對我們投資組合而言是一個重要的風險降低過程，因為我們已經消除了相當一部分水文、貨幣、現貨價格和浮動利率風險敞口。

Turning to slide 6 and the renewables market and our business.

前往第 6 張投影片，再生能源市場和我們的業務。

Last year, the US added 49 gigawatts of new capacity with renewables and battery storage representing 92% of those additions. In 2025, the US is expected to add 63 gigawatts, 93% of which are solar, storage, and wind where we will likely see a surge for new gas capacity over the next decade. The delay in delivery of new gas turbines averages 3 to 4 years without taking into account new permitting requirements or building new gas pipelines. While a few decommissioned nuclear units are expected to be brought online in the next 5 years, a material contribution in new capacity from small nuclear reactors or advanced design nuclear plants is unlikely to occur for at least another decade.

去年，美國新增了 49 吉瓦的發電容量，其中再生能源和電池儲能佔 92%。2025 年，美國預計將增加 63 吉瓦的發電量，其中 93% 為太陽能、儲能和風能，未來十年我們可能會看到新的天然氣產能激增。如果不考慮新的許可要求或建造新的天然氣管道，新燃氣渦輪機的交付平均會延遲 3 至 4 年。雖然預計未來五年內將有少數退役核電機組重新投入運行，但小型核反應器或先進設計核電站在新發電量方面的實質貢獻至少在十年內不太可能出現。

Taking all this into consideration, renewables have the shortest time to power and much greater price certainty. Therefore, there is no doubt that the increased demand for electricity over the next decade coming from data centers and advanced manufacturing will continue to require vast amounts of renewable energy and batteries.

考慮到所有這些因素，再生能源的發電時間最短，價格確定性更高。因此，毫無疑問，未來十年資料中心和先進製造業對電力的需求增加將繼續需要大量的再生能源和電池。

Moving to slide 7.

移至幻燈片 7。

Over the past 5 years, we have endeavored to make our business resilient to potential policy changes. First, we have taken a lead in onshoring our supply chain to the US, which limits our exposure to new tariffs. We now have essentially all of our solar panels, trackers, and batteries either in country or contracted to be domestically produced for our US projects coming online through 2027.

過去五年來，我們一直努力使我們的業務能夠抵禦潛在的政策變化。首先，我們率先將供應鏈轉移到美國，這限制了我們受到的新關稅影響。目前，我們基本上所有的太陽能板、追蹤器和電池都是在國內生產的，或是已簽約在國內生產，用於我們 2027 年之前上線的美國項目。

Second, of the 8.4 gigawatts of signed contracts we have in the US, more than half are under construction, and nearly all have significant Safe Harbor protections, which will grandfather them under the existing tax policy regime.

其次，我們在美國簽署的8.4千兆瓦合約中，超過一半正在建設中，幾乎所有合約都具有重要的安全港保護，在現有的稅收政策制度下，這些合約將不受保護。

Third, about 3 gigawatts or 30% of our backlog of signed PPAs are in USD, but in international markets, primarily Chile, which are unaffected by US policy changes. I should note that in our international markets, renewables can be even more profitable and most often the cheapest form of dispatchable energy even in a regime without meaningful subsidies.

第三，我們簽署的電力購買協議積壓中約有 3 千兆瓦或 30% 是以美元計價的，但在國際市場上，主要是智利，不受美國政策變化的影響。我應該指出，在我們的國際市場上，即使在沒有有意義補貼的製度下，再生能源也可以帶來更高的利潤，而且往往是最便宜的可調度能源形式。

Lastly, the vast majority of AES's customer base are corporations whose demand for new renewables continues to increase at a rapid pace. In fact, in 2024, approximately 70% of the PPAs we signed were with large corporations, and notably, we have once again, been designated by BNEF as the largest provider of clean energy to corporations in the world.

最後，AES 的絕大多數客戶群都是對新型再生能源的需求持續快速成長的企業。事實上，到 2024 年，我們簽署的約 70% 的 PPA 都是與大型企業簽署的，值得注意的是，我們再次被 BNEF 指定為全球最大的企業清潔能源供應商。

Even in the very unlikely scenario where tax credits for renewables are eliminated prospectively in their entirety, we believe that there will be continued strong demand from our corporate clients, especially data centers because there are no realistic alternatives for many years.

即使在再生能源的稅收抵免被全部取消這種極不可能的情況下，我們相信我們的企業客戶，尤其是資料中心的需求仍將持續強勁，因為多年來沒有現實的替代方案。

Without timely access to power, there can be no AI revolution. Obviously, the price of new PPAs in a future without tax incentives would increase and the profile of earnings in cash flow would change. This will look a lot like our projects in Chile. However, in any case, what ultimately matters to AES is our returns and cash flow per dollar invested.

如果不能及時獲得權力，就不可能有人工智慧革命。顯然，在沒有稅收優惠的情況下，未來新的電力購買協議 (PPA) 的價格將會上漲，現金流中的收益狀況也會改變。這看起來很像我們在智利的計畫。然而，無論如何，對 AES 來說，最終重要的是我們投資的每一美元所獲得的回報和現金流。

Now, let me turn to our utilities business on slide 8.

現在，讓我轉到第 8 張投影片來談談我們的公用事業業務。

AES Indiana and AES Ohio are executing on a multi-year investment program to improve customer reliability and support economic development. In 2024, we invested $1.6 billion leading to a rate-based growth of 20%. This investment program includes growth and modernization programs at both of our utilities and a plan to transition our aging coal generation in Indiana.

AES 印第安納州和 AES 俄亥俄州正在執行多年期投資計劃，以提高客戶可靠性並支持經濟發展。2024 年，我們投資了 16 億美元，實現了 20% 的利率成長。該投資計劃包括我們兩家公用事業公司的成長和現代化計劃，以及印第安納州老化煤炭發電的轉型計劃。

Our investment plans are driven by our customers, and our top priority is to support local communities with reliable, resilient, and affordable power. We have among the lowest residential rates in both states which we expect to maintain even as we grow our rate base.

我們的投資計畫由客戶驅動，我們的首要任務是向當地社區提供可靠、有彈性且價格合理的電力。我們的居民電費在兩個州中都是最低的，我們預計即使我們的電費基數增加，這一水平也仍將保持下去。

Turning to slide 9.

翻到第 9 張投影片。

Across our two utilities, we have growth riders or trackers which yield near real-time returns on our investments. More than 70% of the investment program is recovered through formula rates or existing riders. As through the [TDSI] program at AES Indiana, the FERC formulates to support transmission investment at AES Ohio. All of this combined with signed agreements for over 2 gigawatts of new data center demand make AES Indiana and AES Ohio among the fastest growing and modernizing utilities in the nation.

在我們的兩家公用事業公司中，我們擁有成長附加產品或追蹤產品，可以為我們的投資帶來近乎即時的回報。超過 70% 的投資計劃是透過公式稅率或現有附加條款收回的。與 AES 印第安納州的 [TDSI] 計劃一樣，FERC 制定了支持 AES 俄亥俄州的輸電投資的計劃。所有這些，加上已簽署的超過 2 千兆瓦新資料中心需求協議，使 AES 印第安納州和 AES 俄亥俄州成為美國發展最快、現代化程度最高的公用事業公司之一。

From 2023 to 2027, we expect annualized growth in our rate base of at least 11% across two utilities. This plan will support credit improvement at DPL Inc. Which we expect to achieve investment grade metrics by 2026.

從 2023 年到 2027 年，我們預計兩家公用事業公司的費率基數年化成長率至少為 11%。該計劃將支持 DPL Inc. 的信用改善。 我們預計到 2026 年該公司將達到投資等級指標。

Now, turning to slide 10.

現在翻到第 10 張投影片。

Our energy infrastructure business provides a substantial and steady base of earnings and cash flow that support our credit ratings and help fund our dividends and new growth. We remain committed to an all of the above strategy which includes an important role for gas in our businesses and customer offerings. During the fourth quarter, we completed the construction of a new 670 megawatt fully contracted in dollars CCGT in Panama, which will result in much greater utilization of our existing LNG regasification and storage tanks in the country.

我們的能源基礎設施業務提供了堅實而穩定的盈利和現金流基礎，支持了我們的信用評級並幫助資助我們的股息和新增長。我們將繼續致力於上述所有策略，其中包括天然氣在我們的業務和客戶服務中的重要角色。第四季度，我們在巴拿馬完成了一座以美元全額簽約的670兆瓦新CCGT的建設，這將大大提高我們在該國現有的液化天然氣再氣化和儲罐的利用率。

In addition, we're delaying the closure or sale of a few of our coal plants as a result of increased demand in those markets. These assets are largely depreciated yet contribute meaningful EBITDA and cash flow. We still remain committed nonetheless to a full exit from coal generation and we will continue to rapidly lower our carbon intensity and minimize carbon emissions from our generation fleet.

此外，由於這些市場的需求增加，我們推遲關閉或出售一些燃煤電廠。這些資產大部分已折舊，但仍貢獻了有意義的 EBITDA 和現金流。儘管如此，我們仍致力於全面退出煤炭發電，並將繼續迅速降低碳強度，並盡量減少發電機組的碳排放。

Now, moving to our financial outlook on slide 11.

現在，讓我們來看看第 11 頁的財務展望。

Today, we're initiating our 2025 guidance, including adjusted EBITDA of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion, parent-free cash flow of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.10 to $2.26. We're also reaffirming all of our long-term growth rates, including 5% to 7% adjusted EBITDA growth through 2027. As we grow, we're also improving our business mix as we see a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA from renewables and US utilities.

今天，我們啟動了 2025 年的指導方針，包括調整後的 EBITDA 為 26.5 億美元至 28.5 億美元，無母公司現金流為 11.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元，調整後的 EPS 為 2.10 美元至 2.26 美元。我們也重申了所有長期成長率，包括 2027 年調整後的 EBITDA 成長率達到 5% 至 7%。隨著我們的成長，我們也在改善業務組合，因為我們看到再生能源和美國公用事業的調整後 EBITDA 顯著增加。

Now, turning to our balance sheet and plans to improve our credit ratios through and beyond our guidance period on slide 12.

現在，讓我們來看看第 12 頁的資產負債表和計劃，以期在我們的指導期內及指導期之後改善我們的信用比率。

We are firmly committed to maintaining our investment grade credit ratings, as well as our dividends. As a result, we're taking several actions to improve cash flow and reduce parent equity requirements while ensuring that our capital plan will be totally self-funded. I should note that these efforts are ongoing, and we will continue to evaluate measures to strengthen our financial position on top of what's already included in our guidance.

我們堅定地致力於維持我們的投資級信用評級以及股息。因此，我們採取了多項措施來改善現金流、減少母公司股權要求，同時確保我們的資本計畫完全自籌資金。我應該指出，這些努力正在進行中，我們將在已經納入指導方針的基礎上繼續評估加強我們財務狀況的措施。

First, we have resized our development program and organization to focus on executing on our backlog and pursuing fewer but larger projects to better serve our core customers. This strategy allows us to increase our returns on our available capital by selecting the most attractive projects.

首先，我們調整了開發計劃和組織的規模，專注於完成積壓的任務，並開展數量更少但規模更大的項目，以更好地服務我們的核心客戶。透過這項策略，我們可以透過選擇最具吸引力的項目來增加可用資本的回報。

Given the strength of our 50 gigawatt US pipeline, we also expect to execute more development transfer agreements, enabling us to monetize a portion of our renewables pipeline without requiring significant AES equity. As a result of all of these actions, we have reduced our parent investment in the renewables business by $1.3 billion from now through 2027 and eliminated the need for equity.

鑑於我們 50 吉瓦美國管道的實力，我們還希望執行更多的開發轉讓協議，使我們能夠將部分可再生能源管道貨幣化，而無需大量的 AES 股權。所有這些行動的結果是，從現在到 2027 年，我們將母公司對再生能源業務的投資減少 13 億美元，並消除了對股權的需求。

Second, we are streamlining our organization ahead of what was originally planned. Our business is significantly simpler today than it was 10 years ago. As we now operate in fewer countries, our portfolio consists of more than 50% renewables, and our growth is primarily concentrated in the US. In 2025, after the execution of this restructuring, we will realize approximately $150 million in cost savings. Ramping up to over $300 million in 2026 as we achieve a full year run rate.

第二，我們正在比原計劃提前精簡組織機構。與十年前相比，我們今天的業務明顯簡單得多。由於我們目前在較少的國家開展業務，我們的投資組合中超過 50% 是可再生能源，而且我們的成長主要集中在美國。2025年，實施此項重組後，我們將實現約1.5億美元的成本節約。隨著我們實現全年運行率，到 2026 年將增至 3 億美元以上。

Third, as I previously mentioned, we will retain a few of our coal assets beyond 2027 to support our financial metrics and fund new projects. Taken together, these actions enable an even stronger AES with a clear path to achieve our 2025 and long-term financial commitments and strengthen our credit metrics.

第三，正如我之前提到的，我們將在 2027 年後保留一些煤炭資產，以支持我們的財務指標並為新項目提供資金。總的來說，這些舉措將使 AES 變得更加強大，並為實現我們的 2025 年及長期財務承諾和加強我們的信用指標提供清晰的途徑。

In summary, we have a resilient strategy to deliver on our financial commitments regardless of regulatory outcomes. We have continued to de-risk our business by exiting Brazil, locking in and onshoring our equipment and moving our supply chain to the US.

總而言之，無論監管結果如何，我們都有一套靈活的策略來履行我們的財務承諾。我們透過退出巴西、鎖定和在岸生產我們的設備以及將我們的供應鏈轉移到美國來繼續降低我們的業務風險。

As I mentioned earlier, 2025 is an inflection point for the financial results of our US renewable business as we begin to harvest many years of work and investments. Demand from our corporate clients remains strong and growing, and we are taking all steps to increase our efficiency and profitability. We are confident in the underlying value of our business, and we are committed to strengthening our balance sheet while capitalizing on our unique competitive advantages.

正如我之前提到的，2025 年是我們美國再生能源業務財務表現的轉捩點，因為我們開始收穫多年工作和投資的成果。我們企業客戶的需求仍然強勁且不斷成長，我們正在採取一切措施來提高我們的效率和獲利能力。我們對我們業務的潛在價值充滿信心，我們致力於加強我們的資產負債表，同時利用我們獨特的競爭優勢。

With that, I will turn the call over to Steve.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thank you, Andrés. And good morning, everyone. Today, I will discuss our 2024 results and capital allocation, our 2025 guidance, and our updated expectations through 2027.

謝謝你，安德烈斯。大家早安。今天，我將討論我們的 2024 年業績和資本配置、2025 年指引以及我們對 2027 年的最新預期。

Turning to slide 14, full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $2.64 billion versus $2.8 billion in 2023, driven primarily by record-breaking drought conditions in South America, several force outages and asset sales, but partially offset by contributions from new renewables projects.

轉到第 14 張投影片，2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 26.4 億美元，而 2023 年為 28 億美元，這主要受南美洲破紀錄的乾旱狀況、幾次強制停電和資產出售的影響，但部分被新再生能源項目的貢獻所抵消。

Turning to slide 15, adjusted EPS was $2.14 in 2024 versus $1.76 in 2023. Drivers were similar to those for adjusted EBITDA but also include significantly higher tax attributes on new renewables commissionings and a lower adjusted tax rate. This tax benefit was associated with our transition to a simpler, more US oriented holding company structure better aligned with our growth. This is partially offset by a $0.07 headwind from parent interests on higher debt balances primarily used to fund new renewables projects.

轉到第 15 張投影片，2024 年調整後的每股盈餘為 2.14 美元，而 2023 年為 1.76 美元。驅動因素與調整後 EBITDA 的驅動因素類似，但也包括新再生能源投產的稅收屬性明顯更高以及調整後稅率更低。此項稅收優惠與我們向更簡單、更面向美國的控股公司結構的轉型有關，該結構更符合我們的成長要求。但這數字被母公司利益所導致的 0.07 美元的逆風部分抵消，因為母公司債務餘額增加，主要用於資助新的再生能源項目。

I'll cover our results in more detail over the next 4 slides, beginning with the Renewable Strategic Business Unit, or SBU on slide 16.

我將在接下來的 4 張投影片中更詳細地介紹我們的結果，從第 16 張投影片上的再生能源策略業務部門 (SBU) 開始。

Lower adjusted EBITDA at a renewables SBU was primarily driven by historic weather volatility in South America. In the second quarter, an unprecedented flood forced an outage at our [Chevo] facility for nearly 2 months, which was then followed by a record-breaking drought across the country. Brazil was also impacted by a lengthy drought and extremely low wind resource, and the sale closing in the fourth quarter reduced EBITDA on a year over year basis. These negative drivers were partially offset by contributions from new projects that came online primarily in the US.

再生能源策略業務單位調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤下降，主要原因是南美洲歷史性天氣波動。第二季度，一場史無前例的洪水導致我們 [Chevo] 工廠停電近 2 個月，隨後全國又遭遇了破紀錄的乾旱。巴西也受到長期乾旱和極低風力資源的影響，第四季度的出售導致 EBITDA 年減。這些負面因素被主要在美國上線的新項目的貢獻部分抵消。

At our utilities SBU, higher adjusted PTC was primarily driven by rate-based investment in the US, new rates at AES Indiana, and improved weather, but partially offset by the 2023 recovery of purchase power costs at AES Ohio included as part of the ESP 4 settlement, as well as higher interest expense from new borrowings.

在我們的公用事業 SBU，調整後 PTC 的提高主要得益於美國的基於利率的投資、AES 印第安納州的新利率以及天氣好轉，但部分被 AES 俄亥俄州 2023 年購買電力成本的回收（作為 ESP 4 和解的一部分）以及新借款的更高利息支出所抵消。

Lower adjusted EBITDA and our energy infrastructure SBU reflects an outage in Mexico, lower margins at Southland, and sell downs in Panama and the Dominican Republic. Finally, at our new energy technologies SBU, higher adjusted EBITDA reflects improved results at fluence.

調整後 EBITDA 和能源基礎設施 SBU 的下降反映了墨西哥的停電、南地利潤率的下降以及巴拿馬和多明尼加共和國的銷售下滑。最後，在我們的新能源技術 SBU，更高的調整後 EBITDA 反映了 Fluence 績效的改善。

Now, let's turn to how we allocated our capital last year on slide 20.

現在，讓我們看看第 20 張投影片上我們去年是如何分配資本的。

Beginning on the left-hand side, sources reflect $3.1 billion of total discretionary cash. This includes parent-free cash flow of just over $1.1 billion, which increased more than 10% from the prior year. We distributed nearly $600 million of asset sales proceeds to the AES parent, and we issued $1.4 billion of hybrid parent debt.

從左側開始，資料來源顯示可自由支配現金總額為 31 億美元。其中包括超過 11 億美元的無母公司現金流，比去年增加了 10% 以上。我們向 AES 母公司分配了近 6 億美元的資產銷售收益，並發行了 14 億美元的混合母公司債務。

Moving to uses on the right-hand side.

移至右側的用途。

We invested approximately $1.9 billion in growth at our subsidiaries of which more than 80% was allocated to our renewables and utilities businesses. We also repaid roughly $180 million of subsidiary debt and allocated $500 million of discretionary cash to our dividends. In addition, we used a portion of December hybrid issuance proceeds to repay parent debt and have ended the year with a significant cash balance that will go to executing on our backlog in 2025.

我們投資了約 19 億美元用於子公司的成長，其中 80% 以上用於我們的再生能源和公用事業業務。我們還償還了約 1.8 億美元的子公司債務，並將 5 億美元的可自由支配現金分配給了我們的股息。此外，我們使用了 12 月混合債券發行收益的一部分來償還母公司債務，並在年底時獲得了大量現金餘額，這些現金餘額將用於履行 2025 年的積壓訂單。

Now, turning to our guidance and expectations beginning on slide 21.

現在，從第 21 張投影片開始談談我們的指導和期望。

Today we're initiating 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion in which growth in our core businesses is offsetting a number of one-time year-over-year headwinds. Our guidance includes more than $300 million of growth at our renewables and utilities SBUs. This is partially offset by the sale of AES Brazil and the pending 30% sale of AES Ohio, as well as approximately $200 million from a reduction in Southland margins related to declining power prices in California and the retirement of our warrior-run coal plant in energy infrastructure where we recognized revenues in the first half of 2024 related to the monetization of the PPA.

今天，我們啟動了 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 預測，即 26.5 億美元至 28.5 億美元，其中我們核心業務的成長將抵消一些一次性的同比不利因素。我們的指導包括再生能源和公用事業 SBU 超過 3 億美元的成長。這部分被 AES 巴西的出售和 AES 俄亥俄 30% 的待出售所抵消，以及因加州電價下降和我們戰士運營的能源基礎設施煤電廠的退役導致的南地利潤率減少約 2 億美元，我們在 2024 年上半年確認了與 PPA 貨幣化相關的收入。

The timing of these 2024 items combined with the seasonality of our renewables growth will result in our first half EBITDA being lower on a year-over-year basis, while the second half will be significantly higher. In addition to these drivers, we also expect to realize $150 million of cost savings in 2025 across all businesses from the actions we are taking that Andrés outlined.

這些 2024 年項目的時間安排，加上我們再生能源成長的季節性，將導致我們上半年的 EBITDA 年減，而下半年將大幅上升。除了這些驅動因素之外，我們還預計，透過採取安德烈斯概述的行動，到 2025 年，所有業務將節省 1.5 億美元的成本。

Looking beyond this year, these savings, which increased to a run rate of over $300 million in 2026 combined with continued growth in renewables and utilities, will accelerate the growth trajectory of AES. As a result, we now expect a much higher low 10s EBITDA growth rate in 2026 versus 2025.

展望今年以後，這些節省的成本（到 2026 年將增加到 3 億美元以上）加上再生能源和公用事業的持續成長，將加速 AES 的成長軌跡。因此，我們現在預計 2026 年的 EBITDA 成長率將比 2025 年高得多。

In addition, we expect to recognize $1.4 billion of tax attributes in 2025. This represents an increase of nearly $100 million driven by more projects coming online in the US. In total, we expect to achieve $3.95 billion to $4.35 billion of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes in 2025.

此外，我們預計 2025 年將確認 14 億美元的稅收屬性。這意味著由於美國有更多項目上線，投資額增加了近 1 億美元。整體而言，我們預計 2025 年調整後 EBITDA（含稅）將達到 39.5 億美元至 43.5 億美元。

Turning to slide 22.

翻到第 22 張投影片。

I will now provide some additional color on our renewables SBU adjusted EBITDA, which we expect to increase significantly year over year in 2025. This growth includes more than $150 million from new projects, much of which relates to the 6.6 gigawatts of new capacity we place in service in late 2023 and throughout 2024. These projects are already online and operating and will now contribute a full year of EBITDA in 2025.

現在，我將對我們的可再生能源 SBU 調整後 EBITDA 提供一些額外的信息，我們預計 2025 年將同比大幅增長。這一增長包括來自新項目的1.5億多美元，其中大部分與我們在2023年底和2024年全年投入使用的6.6千兆瓦新容量有關。這些項目目前已上線運營，並將在 2025 年貢獻全年的 EBITDA。

The sale of AES Brazil in the fourth quarter of last year will serve as a $100 million headwind year over year but is more than offset by the re-segmenting and growth of our renewables business in Chile, which is forecasted to be close to $190 million in 2025. The last two drivers are the normalization of Columbia results after the second quarter, flood-driven outage and historic drought conditions in 2024 and the impact of resizing our development business as Andrés previously discussed.

去年第四季出售 AES 巴西公司將對我們造成 1 億美元的同比損失，但我們在智利的可再生能源業務的重新細分和增長足以抵消這一損失，預計到 2025 年我們的可再生能源業務將接近 1.9 億美元。最後兩個驅動因素分別是第二季後哥倫比亞業績的正常化、2024 年洪水引發的停電和歷史性乾旱狀況以及安德烈斯之前討論過的調整我們的開發業務規模的影響。

Turning to slide 23.

翻到第 23 張投影片。

We are initiating 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.10 to $2.26 and we expect to achieve the upper half of the 7% to 9% long term growth target we initiated in 2021. Drivers are similar to adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes but will be offset by higher parent interests and a higher adjusted tax rate. As a reminder, our results have historically been somewhat seasonally weighted toward the second half of the year, and this year is no exception.

我們預計 2025 年調整後每股盈餘將達到 2.10 美元至 2.26 美元，並有望實現 2021 年設定的 7% 至 9% 長期成長目標的上半部。驅動因素與具有稅收屬性的調整後 EBITDA 類似，但會被更高的母公司權益和更高的調整後稅率所抵消。提醒一下，從歷史上看，我們的業績在某種程度上受到下半年的季節性影響，今年也不例外。

Now, turning to our 2025 parent capital allocation plan on slide 24.

現在，我們來看看第 24 張投影片上的 2025 年母公司資本分配計畫。

Beginning with approximately $2.7 billion of sources on the left-hand side, parent-free cash flow for 2025 is expected to be around $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion. We expect to generate $400 million to $500 million of net asset sale proceeds this year and issue an additional $700 million of net new parent debt.

從左側約 27 億美元的來源開始，預計 2025 年的無母公司現金流將達到約 11.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元。我們預計今年將產生 4 億至 5 億美元的淨資產出售收益，並額外發行 7 億美元的淨新母公司債務。

Now, to the uses on the right-hand side, we plan to invest approximately $1.8 billion in new growth, of which more than 85% will be in the US. We also plan to repay roughly $400 million of subsidiary debt and allocate more than $500 million to our shareholder dividend, which reflects the previously announced 2% increase.

現在，對於右邊的用途，我們計劃投資約 18 億美元用於新增長，其中 85% 以上將在美國。我們還計劃償還約 4 億美元的子公司債務，並分配超過 5 億美元作為股東股息，這反映了先前宣布的 2% 的成長。

Turning to slide 25 in our long-term expectations.

翻到第 25 張投影片，了解我們的長期預期。

We expect tremendous growth at our renewables SBU with an average annual CAGR of 19% to 21% expected from our 2023 guidance midpoint. This will be primarily driven by 6.6 gigawatts of new projects already placed in service along with roughly $700 million of new EBITDA from bringing the majority of our 11.9 gigawatt backlog online. Also included is the addition of Chile renewables offset by the sale of AES Brazil, neither of which were contemplated in our 2023 SBU guidance ranges.

我們預期再生能源策略企業單位將大幅成長，從 2023 年指導中點來看，預計年均複合成長率將達到 19% 至 21%。這主要得益於已投入使用的 6.6 千兆瓦新項目，以及 11.9 千兆瓦積壓訂單中的大部分上線所帶來的約 7 億美元的新 EBITDA。其中還包括出售 AES 巴西業務所抵銷的智利再生能源業務，這兩項業務均未納入我們 2023 年 SBU 指引範圍。

At our utilities SBU, we expect annualized growth of 13% to 15% through 2027, reflecting upside from new data center development in our service territories that could serve as an even greater tailwind beyond 2027. This growth is largely covered by trackers and will be critical to improving service quality and reliability for our customers.

在我們的公用事業 SBU，我們預計到 2027 年年化成長率將達到 13% 至 15%，這反映了我們服務區域內新資料中心開發的上升空間，這可能會在 2027 年以後成為更大的推動力。這一成長主要由追蹤器覆蓋，對於提高客戶的服務品質和可靠性至關重要。

Our utilities plan also incorporates the 30% sell down at AES Ohio we expect to close in the first half of this year. This will reduce adjusted EBITDA in the near term, but allows us to fully capture the data center opportunity in the long term and maximize shareholder value.

我們的公用事業計劃還包含了 AES Ohio 30% 的出售計劃，我們預計將在今年上半年完成。這將在短期內降低調整後的 EBITDA，但使我們能夠在長期內充分抓住資料中心的機會並實現股東價值最大化。

In our energy infrastructure SBU, we now expect EBITDA contributions will decline at a slower rate than in our prior guidance as we plan to operate a few coal plants beyond our previously planned 2027 exit, improving earnings and cash flow.

在我們的能源基礎設施 SBU 中，我們現在預計 EBITDA 貢獻的下降速度將低於我們先前的預期，因為我們計劃在先前計劃的 2027 年退出之後運營一些燃煤電廠，從而改善盈利和現金流。

Now to slide 26.

現在翻到第 26 張投影片。

Bringing it all together, I am pleased to reaffirm our long-term adjusted EBITDA growth target of 5% to 7% and our long-term parent free cash flow growth target of 6% to 8% through 2027. This growth is largely locked in through signed PPAs for our backlog projects and approved or tracked rate-based investment at our utilities.

綜合起來，我很高興重申我們的長期調整後 EBITDA 成長目標為 5% 至 7%，以及我們的長期母公司自由現金流成長目標為 6% 至 8%，直至 2027 年。這一增長主要透過為我們積壓項目簽署的電力購買協議 (PPA) 以及我們公用事業公司批准或追蹤的基於利率的投資來鎖定。

Turning to slide 27 in our long-term capital plan.

翻到我們長期資本計畫的第 27 張投影片。

Total sources of $6 billion will be funded primarily with parent-free cash of $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion, reflecting average annual growth of 6% to 8% off our 2023 guidance midpoints. We also expect to issue $900 million to $1 billion of net new parent debt and realize $800 million to $1.2 billion of proceeds from asset sales. It is important to note here that we have fully removed any need for equity issuance throughout our guidance period.

總資金來源為 60 億美元，主要來自 36 億至 39 億美元的無母公司現金，這反映了我們 2023 年指導中位數 6% 至 8% 的年均成長率。我們也預計將發行 9 億至 10 億美元的淨新母公司債務，並透過資產出售獲得 8 億至 12 億美元的收益。這裡值得注意的是，在整個指導期內，我們已經完全消除了任何發行股票的需要。

On the right-hand side, parent investment of approximately $4 billion reflects a reduced investment in renewables. We also plan to repay $600 million of subsidiary debt. We expect to allocate another $1.6 billion of cash to our dividend, which we are fully committed to maintaining at its current level. However, given our efforts to minimize parent cash needs in the already highly attractive yield, we do not expect to grow the dividend during our planned period.

右側，母公司投資約 40 億美元，反映對再生能源投資的減少。我們還計劃償還 6 億美元的子公司債務。我們預計將再分配 16 億美元現金用於股息，並全力致力於維持現有水準。然而，考慮到我們努力在已經非常有吸引力的收益率下將母公司的現金需求降至最低，我們預計在計劃期間不會增加股息。

Our long-term guidance includes the impact of the actions we're taking to simplify our operations, reduce spending on development, and further increase our cash flow and strengthen our credit metrics. These include reducing our planned renewables investments by $1.3 billion. Implementing a restructuring program to generate over $300 million of run rate cost savings by 2026 and continuing to operate select coal assets with earnings and cash potential beyond 2027. These actions demonstrate our commitment to our financial targets as well as our investment grade credit ratings.

我們的長期指導包括我們為簡化營運、減少開發支出、進一步增加現金流量和加強信用指標而採取的行動所產生的影響。其中包括減少 13 億美元的再生能源投資計畫。實施重組計劃，到 2026 年實現超過 3 億美元的運行成本節約，並在 2027 年後繼續運營具有盈利和現金潛力的精選煤炭資產。這些舉措顯示了我們對財務目標以及投資等級信用評等的承諾。

I want to briefly make a few points about our capital structure and financing model.

我想簡單談談我們的資本結構和融資模式幾點。

While we see an uptick in our total debt levels by the end of 2027, which should be looked at on an ownership adjusted basis, our actions to reduce costs and focus our development efforts on higher returning projects will increase cash flows and improve our credit metrics, this eliminates any need for new equity and gives us more flexibility on timing to execute asset sales and sell downs.

雖然到 2027 年底我們的總債務水平會有所上升（這應該從所有權調整的基礎上來看），但我們降低成本並將開發工作重點放在回報更高的項目上的行動將增加現金流並改善我們的信用指標，這消除了對新股權的任何需求，並使我們更靈活地安排資產出售和減持的時間。

Approximately 20% of our debt is related to projects still under construction that are not yet yielding EBITDA or cash. And more than half of this amount will be permanently taken out by monetizing tax attributes when projects are placed in service, leading to a significantly lower level of long-term project debt.

我們的債務中約有 20% 與仍在建設中且尚未產生 EBITDA 或現金的項目有關。其中超過一半的金額將在專案投入使用時透過稅收屬性貨幣化永久取出，從而大大降低長期專案債務水準。

Given that we carry this construction debt, it is relevant to consider a pro forma view of the annual EBITDA and cash generation that will recur once construction is complete. To be specific, the projects that come online during 2027 or are still in construction at the end of 2027 will generate an additional $400 million of annual adjusted EBITDA that is not reflected in our 2027 guidance window.

鑑於我們承擔了這筆建設債務，有必要考慮建設完成後將產生的年度 EBITDA 和現金產生。具體來說，2027 年上線或 2027 年底仍在建設中的項目將產生額外的 4 億美元年度調整後 EBITDA，這並未反映在我們的 2027 年指導窗口中。

Beyond construction, our projects are financed with long term non-recourse debt that fully amortizes using project level cash flows over the life of the PPA. This project debt is non-recourse to the AES parent, resulting in a capital structure that is robust and low risk.

除建造外，我們的專案還採用長期無追索權債務融資，這些債務在 PPA 期限內使用專案級現金流全額攤提。此專案債務對 AES 母公司不具有追索權，因此其資本結構穩健且風險較低。

Turning to slide 28.

翻到第 28 張投影片。

This chart provides an example of the typical debt and EBITDA levels we would expect over the life of a US renewables project. While a new project is under construction, debt ramps up with no corresponding EBITDA. Once the project is placed in service, there is a material reduction in the debt balance as more than half of the construction debt is repaid through the monetization of tax attributes. The remainder is refinanced using long-term fixed rate amortizing project debt that is pre-hedged when the PPA is signed.

這張圖表提供了我們預期美國再生能源專案整個生命週期內的典型債務和 EBITDA 水準的範例。當新項目正在建設中時，債務就會增加，而 EBITDA 卻沒有相應增加。一旦項目投入使用，債務餘額將大幅減少，因為超過一半的建設債務是透過稅收屬性貨幣化來償還的。剩餘部分採用在簽署電力購買協議 (PPA) 時預先對沖的長期固定利率攤銷專案債務進行再融資。

In the first full year of operations, leverage ratios begin at approximately 6 times debt to EBITDA and will continue to decline each year as the project debt amortizes. This example helps demonstrate how AES leverage ratios appear artificially high while we execute on our ongoing construction program but will come back down as our operating portfolio reaches a larger scale.

在營運的第一個完整年頭，槓桿率開始約為債務與 EBITDA 的 6 倍，並且隨著專案債務的攤銷，每年都會持續下降。這個例子有助於說明，當我們執行正在進行的建設項目時，AES 槓桿率為何會出現人為的高水平，但隨著我們的營運組合規模擴大，槓桿率將回落。

In conclusion, 2025 is an inflection point for our business. The renewable segment will increase over 60% in 2025 and will yield annual growth at least in line with our 19% to 21% guidance through 2027.

總之，2025 年是我們業務的轉捩點。到 2025 年，再生能源領域將成長 60% 以上，到 2027 年，年增長率將至少與我們預期的 19% 至 21% 保持一致。

Utilities rate-based growth is even stronger than previously expected. While energy infrastructure continues to contribute meaningfully to EBITDA and cash, we have taken actions to streamline our organization and reduce both costs and capital investments. These actions are further increasing our cash flows and will enable AES to deliver increasingly higher credit metrics as we execute on our backlog.

基於公用事業費率的成長甚至比之前預期的還要強勁。在能源基礎設施持續對 EBITDA 和現金做出重大貢獻的同時，我們已採取措施精簡組織機構，降低成本和資本投資。這些舉措進一步增加了我們的現金流，並使 AES 在執行積壓訂單時能夠提供越來越高的信用指標。

Finally, we are on track to achieve our long term financial guidance. I look forward to providing updates throughout the year as we continue executing on our plan and capitalizing on the actions we have taken to ensure continued success at AES.

最後，我們正在實現長期財務指導的道路上。我期待著全年提供最新進展，我們將繼續執行我們的計劃，並利用我們已採取的行動確保 AES 繼續取得成功。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andrés.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給安德烈斯。

Thank you, Steve. In conclusion, here are the key points we want to leave with you today.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。總而言之，以下是我們今天想要傳達的要點。

There is an unprecedented need for incremental energy to power the AI revolution in the United States. Notwithstanding concerns about potential regulatory changes under the new administration, renewables have the best time to market at a competitive price. Additionally, we are well insulated from potential changes in US renewables policy or tariffs through Safe Harbor protections for our backlog, having locked in equipment and EPC pricing and established domestically based supply chains. Our renewables business is at an inflection point with improving financial results from the combination of continued growth, reaching economies of scale, and reductions in development expenses.

美國對增量能源的需求空前高漲，推動人工智慧革命。儘管人們對新政府可能帶來的監管變化有所擔憂，但再生能源仍擁有以有競爭力的價格進入市場的最佳時機。此外，透過安全港保護我們的積壓訂單，我們鎖定了設備和 EPC 定價，並建立了國內供應鏈，從而很好地避免了美國再生能源政策或關稅的潛在變化。我們的再生能源業務正處於轉折點，透過持續成長、實現規模經濟和減少開發費用等多種因素，我們的財務表現不斷改善。

We are reaffirming our longer-term growth rates through 2027 as we execute on our 11.9 gigawatt backlog and we are taking steps to improve our credit metrics. As always, we are highly focused on delivering the highest risk adjusted returns to our shareholders. And we believe that AES is very well positioned to meet both our customers' energy demands as well as our financial commitments.

隨著我們完成 11.9 千兆瓦的積壓訂單並採取措施改善我們的信用指標，我們將重申 2027 年的長期成長率。與往常一樣，我們高度注重為股東提供最高風險調整後的回報。我們相信，AES 完全有能力滿足我們客戶的能源需求以及我們的財務承諾。

Operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開電話線以回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Nick Campanella, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的尼克‧坎帕內拉 (Nick Campanella)。

So just on the cost savings, morning, so you have $150 million rapping to $300 million over time, I heard you, Steve, say that these are run rates, so I assume that these are ongoing and not one time in nature. Just I recognize you had about $52 million in the bridge for renewables. So is the bulk of this coming from the parent? Is it -- does it happen naturally as you sell down more on the energy infrastructure business? And maybe you can kind of just expand on your confidence level and achieving these reductions and where you see a bulk of these happening in the portfolio.

所以早上，僅就成本節約而言，隨著時間的推移，您的成本將從 1.5 億美元增加到 3 億美元，我聽到您，史蒂夫，說這些是運行率，所以我認為這些是持續的，而不是一次性的。我了解到您為再生能源投入了約 5,200 萬美元的資金。那麼，這其中的大部分是來自於父母嗎？這是不是——當你出售更多能源基礎設施業務時自然而然就會發生？也許您可以稍微擴大您的信心水平並實現這些減少，以及您看到投資組合中發生的大部分減少。

So the cost savings are spread across the portfolio and definitely include the renewables business as well. It is a run rate when we hit over $300 million next year, so these are not one time. And I would emphasize that we've already taken these actions, so this is something that we're very confident in because we've already made the decisions and taken the actions that we need to take to achieve the cost savings. So the renewables number that you see for 2025 in that bridge, that will also ramp up in line with the $150 million going to $300 million, I would expect that to proportion to remain roughly the same.

因此，成本節省分散到整個投資組合，並且肯定也包括再生能源業務。這是當我們明年達到 3 億美元以上的運行率，所以這不是一次性的。我想強調的是，我們已經採取了這些行動，所以我們對此非常有信心，因為我們已經做出了決定並採取了實現成本節約所需的行動。因此，您在該橋樑中看到的 2025 年可再生能源數量也將隨著 1.5 億美元至 3 億美元的增長而增加，我預計該比例將保持大致相同。

And then you know just on the comments you're cutting cap back but you're still hitting the growth target of 5% to 7% long-term EBITDA, so you previously talked about a 12% to 15% IRR on renewables. What's the IRR of these higher quality projects that you're now targeting and is the cost cuts just are the cost cuts just making up for the rest of that delta, just tying out to the long-term guidance?

然後您知道，就在評論中您削減了上限，但您仍然達到了 5% 到 7% 的長期 EBITDA 增長目標，所以您之前談到了可再生能源的 12% 到 15% 的 IRR。您現在瞄準的這些高品質項目的內部報酬率 (IRR) 是多少？

Sure. Look, we're taking an integrated approach. So, yes, we see a strong demand in the markets. We see that we have very attractive projects, so that our IRRs are going up on average. But at the same time, we're also reducing those costs not directly associated with the project, so it's really coming from both sides. So it's an integrated approach.

當然。看，我們正在採取綜合方法。所以，是的，我們看到市場需求強勁。我們看到我們擁有非常有吸引力的項目，因此我們的內部收益率 (IRR) 平均正在上升。但同時，我們也在降低那些與專案無直接關係的成本，所以這其實是雙方共同的利益。所以這是一種綜合的方法。

So what we're doing is, and we quite frankly have said this to some extent in the past, it's not just the number of gigawatts, it's the returns we get, for example, EBITDA created by each investment dollar. So that's really what we're focusing on. So it will mean fewer projects, but larger projects and at the end, more profitable projects.

所以我們正在做的是，而且我們過去坦率地說過這一點，這不僅僅是千兆瓦的數量，而是我們獲得的回報，例如每一美元投資所創造的 EBITDA。所以這確實也是我們關注的重點。因此，這意味著專案數量會減少，但專案規模會擴大，最終專案利潤會更高。

David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

Let's see, looking at that, it seems like you're pulling back somewhat on the renewable CapEx in the forecast, wondering from a high level kind of strategic perspective, Andrés, do you see this as a kind of a pause in, I guess in the renewables growth or just a bit of a pull back in making those investments into the renewables business just given the current environment that. And over time would you expect to re-assess and potentially reaccelerate, to the extent financing becomes easier the backdrop, becomes more favorable?

讓我們看看，從這一點來看，似乎您在預測中對可再生能源資本支出有所縮減，安德烈斯，從高層次的戰略角度來看，您是否認為這是可再生能源增長的一種暫停，或者只是在當前環境下對可再生能源業務的投資有所縮減。隨著時間的推移，您是否期望重新評估並可能重新加速，融資在何種程度上變得更加容易，背景變得更加有利？

Look, we are focusing on executing on our 12 gigawatt pipeline, in which 85% of that will be online by 2027. So, that's our number one focus. As we mentioned in our script, we've been spending a lot, which flows through P&L is building that 50 gigawatt pipeline in the states and 10 gigawatt pipeline outside.

我們正專注於執行我們的 12 千兆瓦管道，其中 85% 將在 2027 年上線。所以，這是我們的首要關注。正如我們在腳本中提到的那樣，我們花了很多錢，這些錢流向了損益表，在美國建造了 50 千兆瓦的管道，在國外建造了 10 千兆瓦的管道。

So really, what we're doing is harvesting that pipeline. So you know we don't want to grow it to 100 gigawatts. So we've done that work, we're going to harvest it. So basically we're spending less, if you will, on future projects with a time horizon of 5 to 7 years because we've done that work.

所以實際上，我們正​​在做的是收穫那條管道。所以你知道我們不想將其發展到 100 千兆瓦。我們已經完成這項工作，我們將收穫它。因此，基本上，如果你願意的話，我們在未來 5 到 7 年內的專案上花費的錢會更少，因為我們已經完成了這項工作。

Now in terms of total growth rate, what we're saying is we're going to be building less gigawatts for sure, but we're going to maintain our financial results so that's the sort of picture. Now again, what we see is strong demand from our clients, but we're very happy to -- this year, we'll be commissioning around 3 gigawatts of new projects, next year, that would step up to 4 gigawatts. So you're seeing we're signing around 4+ per year. So eventually, the amount that we commission and the amount that we build have to roughly come in line.

現在就整體成長率而言，我們肯定會建立更少的千兆瓦，但我們將保持我們的財務業績，所以情況就是這樣。現在，我們再次看到客戶的需求強勁，但我們非常高興——今年，我們將調試約 3 千兆瓦的新項目，明年將增加到 4 千兆瓦。所以，你可以看到，我們每年簽約大約 4 名以上員工。因此，最終，我們委託的金額和我們建造的金額必須大致一致。

And then I guess looking at the overall profile of the businesses and your asset sales target now, I guess you're -- seems like you're increasing the asset sales target overall, but you're keeping coal in the plan for a bit longer than originally planned. Could you maybe talk about what the profile is of the assets that that you might be looking at in the asset sales target now what could be represented in there?

然後我想，現在看一下業務的整體狀況和資產銷售目標，我想你——似乎你總體上正在提高資產銷售目標，但你將煤炭保留在計劃中的時間比原計劃要長一些。您能否談談您在資產銷售目標中可能關注的資產概況，現在其中可以代表什麼？

So, similar to what we have talked about in the past, it does still include some coal exit, it does still include some monetization of our technology portfolio, but we have always said that the universe is greater than the $3.5 billion. We've actually taken a little bit more conservative view on what we intend to execute here, so we're really confident in the number between '25 and '27.

因此，與我們過去談論的內容類似，它確實仍然包括一些煤炭出口，它確實仍然包括一些我們的技術組合的貨幣化，但我們一直說，宇宙大於 35 億美元。事實上，對於我們打算在這裡執行的目標，我們採取了更保守的看法，因此，我們對 25 年至 27 年之間的數字非常有信心。

And you know we have looked at the sell downs as well, so this number includes some of the partnerships that we do. But what I would say is this capital plan relies less on these asset sales than in the past, and we have baked in more flexibility to execute the sales over time.

而且你知道，我們也考慮了銷售情況，所以這個數字包括了我們建立的一些合作關係。但我想說的是，與過去相比，這項資本計畫對這些資產銷售的依賴程度有所降低，而且我們已經融入了更多的靈活性來隨著時間的推移執行銷售。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

Durgesh Chopra，Evercore ISI。

Just I wanted to double click on cost savings $300 million annual target, it's pretty substantial when I look at your EBITDA number, roughly 10%. Maybe just can you give us some examples ff what cost reductions are these personnel reductions or these process improvements just so we can get a little bit more comfort around your target level of cost reduction, please?

我只是想雙擊每年 3 億美元的成本節約目標，當我看到您的 EBITDA 數字時，這個數字相當可觀，大約是 10%。或許您能給我們舉一些例子，例如這些人員減少或流程改善可以降低哪些成本，以便我們對您的成本降低目標水準有更清楚的了解嗎？

Sure, great question. With me is Ricardo Falú, our Chief Operating Officer, who's been leading a lot of the reorganization restructuring efforts. So, I'll let him answer that question.

當然，這個問題問得好。和我一起的是我們的營運長里卡多·法洛 (Ricardo Falú)，他一直領導著許多重組工作。所以，我會讓他回答這個問題。

So this, cost reduction program includes as Andrés and Steve mentioned first, the resizing of our development program to focus it on executing on our backlog as well as pursuing fewer but larger project. And as a result, we resize the team. We also materially cut the new sites origination as well as early stage of project cost. And on top of that, we reduced a 10% -- we had a 10% reduction in our workforce, which includes the elimination of certain management layers as well as a much leaner organization both at corporate and business levels.

因此，正如安德烈斯和史蒂夫首先提到的，這個成本削減計劃包括調整我們的開發計劃的規模，使其專注於執行我們的積壓工作以及進行更少但更大的項目。因此，我們調整了團隊規模。我們也大幅削減了新站點的建設以及專案前期的成本。除此之外，我們也減少了 10% 的員工，其中包括取消某些管理層級，以及在公司和業務層面精簡組織。

This is something that we plan to occur more gradually through 2027. However, in response to the current market conditions, we decided to accelerate and this organization now it's aligned to the much simpler portfolio that Andrés mentioned.

我們計劃在 2027 年逐步實現這一目標。然而，為了因應當前的市場狀況，我們決定加速發展，現在這個組織已經與安德烈斯提到的更簡單的投資組合保持一致。

Yeah, I'd like to mention that these actions have been taken. So Steve also mentioned that, so these are done and also the decisions in terms of losing the amount of capital we put into the renewables business. There is very little execution risk on it because it's done.

是的，我想說的是，這些行動已經採取了。史蒂夫也提到了這一點，這些都已經完成了，同時我們也做出了在再生能源業務上投入的資本損失方面的決定。由於已經完成，因此執行風險很小。

And I can sense the the confidence you have in executing on these cost reductions. Okay, thank you.

我可以感受到你們對執行這些成本削減措施的信心。好的，謝謝。

And then my final question, Steve, just maybe can you help us with where you landed on FX or debt basis and referring to sort of on a Moody's adjusted basis for 2024 relative to your credit downgrade thresholds.

然後我的最後一個問題，史蒂夫，也許你可以幫助我們了解你在外匯或債務基礎上的立場，並參考穆迪對 2024 年信用降級門檻的調整後基礎。

Yeah, absolutely. So on the recourse metrics, so at the parent level, we ended at 22%. So you know it's a significant cushion above the 20% threshold. On the Moody's metric, we ended on our on our calculations at 10%, which is right in line with where we expect it to be. In both cases, these metrics will improve over time. At this point with this updated plan where we focus very closely on improving our credit metrics, we do expect to get into the mid-20s on the recourse metrics by the end of the guidance period and.

是的，絕對是如此。因此，根據追索權指標，在母公司層面，我們最終達到 22%。所以你知道它是高於 20% 門檻的一個顯著緩衝。根據穆迪的指標，我們的計算結果為 10%，與我們的預期完全一致。在這兩種情況下，這些指標都會隨著時間的推移而改善。此時，我們將密切關注更新後的計劃，改善我們的信用指標，我們確實希望在指導期結束時，追索權指標能達到 25% 左右。

In 2026, in line with what we've been discussing with Moody's, we expect to be at or above the 12% threshold. So I feel really good about the actions that we've taken and what we're doing to increase our cash and EBITDA. Our net debt to EBITDA ratios will improve over time as well.

到 2026 年，根據我們與穆迪的討論，我們預計將達到或超過 12% 的門檻。因此，我對我們採取的行動以及為增加現金和 EBITDA 所做的努力感到非常滿意。我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率也會隨著時間的推移而改善。

The other thing I would point out is, as I said in my prepared remarks, we do carry about $4 billion to $5 billion of construction debt on our balance sheet at any one time, that is not yet yielding. And so, our leverage ratios look artificially high at any one point in time as a result. And so, these ratios when adjusted for that, for example, in a net debt to EBITDA comes down 1 to 1.5 times just by adjusting for that construction debt.

我想指出的另一件事是，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們的資產負債表上確實隨時背負著大約 40 億至 50 億美元的建設債務，這些債務尚未產生收益。因此，我們的槓桿率在任何時候都顯得人為地高。因此，經過調整後的這些比率，例如，僅透過調整建設債務，淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率就會下降 1 到 1.5 倍。

But as I looked at the ratios or I mentioned the ratios, those are based on the actual way that they get calculated, without this adjustment. But I do think it's important in understanding our leverage profile, it's very important to look at this ownership adjusted debt level because the EBITDA, of course is ownership adjusted, and to understand that the leverage profile continues to improve over time as the operating portfolio gets bigger and bigger relative to the construction.

但是當我查看這些比率或提到這些比率時，它們是基於實際計算的方式，沒有進行這種調整。但我確實認為了解我們的槓桿狀況很重要，查看所有權調整後的債務水平非常重要，因為 EBITDA 當然是所有權調整後的，並且要了解隨著運營組合相對於建設越來越大，槓桿狀況會隨著時間的推移而持續改善。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安‧杜穆蘭‧史密斯 (Julien Dumoulin-Smith)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies

Maybe just to follow up on that last one, just while we're on the subject, can you just elaborate? I mean, to what extent have you gotten in front of Moody's with this plan and just if you could elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking through '27 on that evolution of those metrics and that's sufficing given the backdrop of Moody's here.

也許只是為了跟進最後一個問題，既然我們討論這個話題，您能詳細說明一下嗎？我的意思是，您在多大程度上領先於穆迪制定了這項計劃，您能否稍微詳細說明一下您如何考慮 27 年這些指標的演變，考慮到穆迪的背景，這就足夠了。

So we have discussed as we were working with Moody's last year, where this was headed. What I would say is it looks right on track, in fact, even a little bit better given the actions that we've taken. Effectively, what's happening is our cash flow and EBITDA is increasing substantially through the plan period. And you know, that's a result of bringing on substantial amounts of operating assets. We have 12 gigawatts in our backlog, most of which will be coming online through 2027.

因此，我們去年與穆迪合作時就討論過這問題的發展方向。我想說的是，一切看起來都進展順利，事實上，考慮到我們已經採取的行動，情況甚至更好。實際上，我們的現金流和 EBITDA 在計劃期間都在大幅增加。你知道，這是引入大量營運資產的結果。我們的積壓訂單有 12 千兆瓦，其中大部分將在 2027 年上線。

And then on top of that we are reducing, as Andrés and Ricardo discussed, our development spending is down based on our updated strategy of pursuing larger but fewer projects. We're putting less money into early-stage prospecting and more maturing the pipeline that we have. And then our administrative spending is down substantially as well, and that's also as a result of what was mentioned about our simplification of our portfolio and the reduction of management layers and efficiencies that result from these actions that we have already taken. So together with this cash flow increase from operations, the reduction in cost, the ratios continue to look very healthy and grow in line to better than our prior expectations.

除此之外，正如安德烈斯和里卡多所討論的，我們正在減少開發支出，這是基於我們追求更大但更少專案的最新策略。我們正在減少對早期勘探的投入，並進一步改善現有的管道。然後我們的行政支出也大幅下降，這也是由於我們簡化了投資組合，減少了管理層級並提高了效率，而這些是我們已經採取的行動所帶來的結果。因此，加上經營現金流的增加和成本的降低，這些比率看起來仍然非常健康，並且成長比我們先前的預期好。

Maybe just to keep going with that a little bit further. Just given the reduction of $1.3 billion here just on balance, are you actually selling down stakes and more renewables in order to reduce that need for contributions, or is the aggregate level of renewable investment per year slowing down here? I just want to make sure we're clear.

或許只是為了繼續這樣下去。考慮到這裡總體減少了 13 億美元，您是否真的在出售股份並增加可再生能源以減少對捐款的需求，還是這裡每年可再生能源投資的總體水平正在放緩？我只是想確保我們清楚。

You've talked about backlog and executing it, but I just want to understand like how you think about like renewables per year install evolving through the period now given the update as well as what level of contribution from coal, not what assets, but just what level of cash or EBITDA, however you want to talk about it from coal, are you anticipating, in '26 and '27 beyond now as well.

您談到了積壓訂單和執行情況，但我只是想了解，考慮到最新情況，您如何看待可再生能源每年的安裝量在當前時期的變化，以及煤炭的貢獻水平，不是什麼資產，而是什麼水平的現金或 EBITDA，無論您想如何談論煤炭，您預計在 26 年和 27 年以後也是如此。

So on the first one again, through the 2027, we're basically executing on our backlog. And look, we're seeing very strong demand from our clients. Since our last call, we signed 450 megawatts with tech customers. So we see no downturn in demand. So basically, what we see is there's no cliff in 2027. I mean, our demand continues to grow.

因此，對於第一個目標，到 2027 年，我們基本上都在執行我們的積壓任務。而且，我們看到客戶的需求非常強勁。自上次通話以來，我們已與科技客戶簽訂了 450 兆瓦的合約。因此我們認為需求不會下滑。所以基本上，我們看到 2027 年沒有懸崖。我的意思是，我們的需求持續成長。

Second, maybe an easy way of thinking what Steve had described is if you have a pool of say roughly $4 billion to $5 billion in construction debt, and you are basically carrying that over 16 gigawatts and then you go up to 25, 30 gigawatts, that your credit metrics improved, even though that debt is really sort of short term rotating because half of it's going to be paid back upon completion. That's number one. So then number two, talking about how much the goal is going to contribute sort of post 2027, I'll pass that to to Ricardo.

其次，也許史蒂夫所描述的一個簡單的思考方式是，如果你有大約 40 億到 50 億美元的建設債務，並且你基本上將其承擔在 16 千兆瓦以上，然後增加到 25 到 30 千兆瓦，那麼你的信用指標就會改善，即使這些債務實際上是一種短期輪換，因為其中一半將在完工後償還。這是第一點。那麼第二點，關於這個目標在 2027 年後將做出多大貢獻，我會把這個問題交給里卡多。

So just to put it into perspective, we are talking about keeping retaining few coal assets, half or less than half of what we currently have and will be less than 8% of the expected capacity by the end of 2027. These assets continue to provide critical capacity to the grid and also to our customers, and therefore, they continue contributing, I would say, to the financial health of the company. We're clearly not abandoning our intention to exit coal, but it will take longer than we previously expected.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們談論的是保留少量煤炭資產，即目前煤炭資產的一半或更少，到 2027 年底將低於預期產能的 8%。這些資產繼續為電網和我們的客戶提供關鍵容量，因此，我想說，它們繼續為公司的財務健康做出貢獻。我們顯然不會放棄退出煤炭的意圖，但這將比我們之前預想的要花費更長的時間。

And I would also add here, Julian, that these are also assets that as that as they're more mature, their debt is amortized, but they're also very accretive in terms of our credit metrics.

朱利安，我還要補充一點，這些資產隨著它們更加成熟，其債務會被攤銷，但就我們的信用指標而言，它們也具有很強的增值性。

And lastly to say, we're doing this because in those markets because of the sort of supply demand balance, they need to keep these plants online. So, it all comes together. It's good for our financials, but it's also giving the market what the market is asking for.

最後要說的是，我們這樣做是因為在這些市場中，由於供需平衡，他們需要維持這些工廠的正常運作。所以，一切就都融合在一起了。這對我們的財務狀況有好處，同時也滿足了市場的需求。

Bottom line though, you're seeing a down you're seeing a leveling off in renewable the cadence just the per annum just to come back to that backlog comment. I'm just trying to understand at the end of the day like how you see.

但底線是，你看到再生能源的節奏在下降，在趨於平穩，每年只是回到那條積壓的評論。我只是想最終理解你所看到的一切。

Yes, I would put it this way. Post 2027, what we see is less growth in number of megawatts than our original plans. I mean, that's clear because we're spending less on creating a pipeline of potential projects 5 to 7 years out. So yes, the answer is yes.

是的，我會這樣說。2027 年後，我們看到兆瓦數量的成長低於我們最初的計畫。我的意思是，這很明顯，因為我們在創建 5 至 7 年後潛在專案管道上的支出減少了。所以是的，答案是肯定的。

Michael Sullivan, Wolfe Research.

沙利文（Michael Sullivan），沃爾夫研究公司。

I think, Ricardo, you're giving it on a capacity basis, any chance we can get that on the EBITDA basis? Just trying to think about, I think when you had the analyst day, you said coal was like a $750 million roll off, what does that look like now through '27?

里卡多，我認為您是根據產能給出的，我們有沒有可能根據 EBITDA 給出這個數字？只是想一想，我想當您在分析師日的時候，您說煤炭就像一個 7.5 億美元的滾滾而來，那麼現在到 27 年的情況如何？

So we had guided, as you said, about $750 million that would be eliminated, I would say, we're looking at roughly a third of that that may continue beyond '27 for a period of time.

因此，正如您所說，我們預計約有 7.5 億美元的支出將被消除，我想說，我們預計其中約三分之一的支出可能會在 27 年後持續一段時間。

And then on just interest rates, I think you have a couple of parent maturities coming up, should we think of those as de-risks from a sensitivity standpoint or what are you embedding there in terms of refis or anything like that?

然後就利率而言，我認為您有幾個母公司債券即將到期，我們是否應該從敏感性的角度將它們視為降低風險，或者您在再融資或類似的東西方面嵌入了什麼？

Yeah, so we did do a hybrid at the end of last year, $500 million, which starts us well into this year. And then, we will be in the market to refi. So we have a maturity here in July and one in January. So we will be in the market, I would say relatively soon. We typically refi, somewhere between 3 to 6 months in advance of these maturities, and our plans will be similar this year.

是的，所以我們確實在去年年底做了一個混合項目，投資了 5 億美元，這讓我們在今年有了一個很好的開始。然後，我們將進入市場進行再融資。因此，我們在七月和一月各有一個到期日。所以我想說我們很快就會進入市場。我們通常會在這些債務到期前 3 到 6 個月進行再融資，今年的計畫也將類似。

And then last one, I definitely can appreciate the the sort of rampant things here. The 5% to 7% EBITDA CAGR, can you get in that range in 2026 off of '23 or we really looking to '27 to really get in there?

最後一點，我絕對能夠理解這裡猖獗的事物。5% 至 7% 的 EBITDA CAGR，您能在 2026 年從 23 年達到這個範圍嗎，或者我們真的希望在 2027 年真正達到這個範圍？

So definitely in '26 and actually let me add one other thing to your prior question, is that on those refis, by the way, we are nearly fully hedged, so we don't carry any interest exposure -- further interest exposure on those refunds. And then with respect to 2026, that's a significant benefit from this action plan, we did contemplate a simplification of the portfolio and cost reduction in the past, over time, but what we have really done here is we've accelerated this. And so, 2026 is going to be a year of significant growth in our EBITDA, and I think I mentioned in my comments in the low 10s and we expect another significant year growth in in 2027. So we will jump ourselves up onto at least that trend line next year.

所以肯定是在'26 年，實際上讓我在你之前的問題上補充一點，順便說一下，在這些再融資中，我們幾乎完全對沖了，所以我們不承擔任何利息風險——這些退款的進一步利息風險。然後對於 2026 年來說，這是該行動計劃的一個重大好處，我們確實考慮過簡化投資組合併降低成本，但我們真正做的是加快了這一進程。因此，2026 年將是我們 EBITDA 顯著增長的一年，我想我在 10% 出頭的評論中提到過，我們預計 2027 年將再次實現顯著增長。因此，明年我們至少會躍上這條趨勢線。

This year in '25, the guidance isn't as exciting simply because we had some of the remaining transformation here around the Brazil exit. We had the warrior run benefit last year. And so, some of these items depressed the year over year, but the reality is where the core business is growing, is contributing more than $300 million this year. There's just those offsets.

今年，也就是25年，我們的預期並不那麼令人興奮，因為我們在退出巴西市場後還經歷了一些剩餘的轉型。去年我們舉辦了勇士跑慈善活動。因此，其中一些項目的銷售額年減，但事實是核心業務正在成長，今年貢獻了 3 億多美元。僅存在那些偏移。

Going forward, the energy infrastructure SBU, we've largely absorbed most of the decline as of 2025. And so, we won't see a significant of an offset from energy infrastructure going forward and therefore, sort of that growth is unleashed from the core businesses to truly drop all the way into the total bottom line and therefore we have higher growth rates beyond this year.

展望未來，截至 2025 年，能源基礎設施 SBU 已基本吸收了大部分下滑。因此，我們不會看到未來能源基礎設施的顯著抵消，因此，這種成長將從核心業務中釋放出來，真正落入總底線，因此我們今年以後的成長率會更高。

One thing I'd like to mention is, we're talking about the quantitative results, but it is really very important qualitative results. We're transitioning this portfolio to be more contracted, to be more renewables, more utilities, less but by getting rid of 5 gigawatts, think about Brazil. I mean that was about -- we have about 30 gigawatts. We sold out of 5. That was most of our hydrology, currency, it was all floating rate, interest rate exposure. So qualitatively, we're transforming this portfolio at the same time. So it's not just that it's we're going to have very good growth in '26 and '27, but it's going to be a much better portfolio as well.

我想說的是，我們談論的是定量結果，但定性結果實際上非常重要。我們正在將這個投資組合轉變為更契約化、更多再生能源、更多公用事業，而不是更少，但透過擺脫 5 千兆瓦，想想巴西。我的意思是——我們大約有 30 千兆瓦。我們已經賣光了 5 件。那是我們大部分的水文、貨幣，都是浮動利率、利率曝險。因此從品質上來說，我們正在同時轉變這個投資組合。因此，我們不僅將在 26 年和 27 年實現非常好的成長，而且我們的投資組合也將變得更好。

Will Grainger, Mizuho.

瑞穗的威爾·格蘭傑。

I understand, you reduced CapEx here but just want to understand a little bit more what's the flexibility to thinking about maybe reducing it even more and investing in your stock here just given where you're trading, any color on that cost of capital would be super helpful.

我了解，您在這裡減少了資本支出，但只是想進一步了解一下，考慮進一步減少資本支出並投資於您的股票的靈活性是什麼，考慮到您的交易地點，有關資本成本的任何細節都會非常有幫助。

Now we're -- as I said in my very first statement, we're very well aware. We talk and we're doing everything possible to to improve it. What I would say is that what we're presenting here is a plan that we think accomplishes this, and we are paying, we're giving back to the shareholders $500 million a year. We're paying a very substantial dividend.

現在我們——正如我在第一次聲明中所說的那樣，我們非常清楚。我們進行討論並盡一切努力來改善它。我想說的是，我們在這裡提出的計劃我們認為可以實現這一目標，而且我們每年將向股東返還 5 億美元。我們支付的股利非常可觀。

Right now, this is the plan that we feel very confident about executing, and that we think will -- when the market settles down, we think will result in very good returns for our shareholders. But thanks for the question and we are constantly thinking of those things.

目前，我們對執行這個計劃非常有信心，我們認為，當市場穩定下來後，我們將為股東帶來非常好的回報。但感謝您的提問，我們一直在思考這些事情。

And then maybe just one final one from me. Understand you're doing a lot of work with technology customers, manufacturing customers, and just on the items at the FERC and what we're seeing also in Texas, does that impact your ability to contract long-term renewables either through co-location or virtual PPAs and any color on that?

接下來我可能只剩下最後一個問題了。您了解您正在與技術客戶、製造客戶以及聯邦能源管理委員會的專案進行大量合作，而且我們在德克薩斯州也看到這種情況，這是否會影響您透過共置或虛擬 PPA 簽訂長期可再生能源合約的能力？

Yes, I think you're probably referring like this is a private, so co-location, private use networks. And look, we don't see that affecting us. We think that most of our -- we have a very, I would say resilient pipeline because we have very few federal lands, if at all. We're all on private lands and we don't have as part of that pipeline, any PUNs at this point. So we feel very confident about our pipeline and we don't see any of these regulations affecting us.

是的，我認為你指的可能是這是一個私人的、共置的、私人使用的網路。而且，我們也不認為這會對我們造成影響。我們認為，我們的大部分管道都非常有彈性，因為我們擁有的聯邦土地非常少，甚至根本沒有。我們都在私人土地上，並且作為該管道的一部分，我們目前還沒有任何 PUN。因此，我們對我們的管道非常有信心，我們認為這些法規不會對我們造成任何影響。

Those are all the questions we have and so, I'll turn the call back to Susan Harcourt for closing remarks.

這些就是我們的全部問題，因此，我將把電話轉回給蘇珊哈考特 (Susan Harcourt) 做結束語。

We thank everybody for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any follow up questions you may have. Thank you and have a nice day.

我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，IR 團隊將隨時解答您可能遇到的任何後續問題。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家今天的參與。我們的通話到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。