愛依斯電力 (AES) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the AES Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Review Call. My name is Elliot, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加AES公司2023年第四季及全年財務回顧電話會議。我是Elliot，今天將由我來主持本次電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to hand over to Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours. Please go ahead.

現在我將發言權交給投資者關係副總裁蘇珊哈考特女士。請您發言。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial review call. Our press release, presentation and related financial information are available on our website at aes.com.

謝謝接線生。早安，歡迎參加我們2023年第四季及全年財務回顧電話會議。我們的新聞稿、簡報及相關財務資訊可在我們的網站aes.com上查閱。

Today, we will be making forward-looking statements. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements, which are disclosed in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q, filed with the SEC. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website along with the presentation. Joining me this morning are Andres Gluski, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Stephen Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer; and other senior members of our management team.

今天，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明。未來業績可能受多種因素影響，與這些聲明有重大差異。這些因素已在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K和10-Q文件中揭露。 GAAP和非GAAP財務指標的調整表以及簡報均可在我們的網站上找到。今天早上與我一同出席會議的有：總裁兼執行長Andres Gluski、財務長Stephen Coughlin以及我們管理團隊的其他資深成員。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andres.

接下來，我將把電話交給安德烈斯。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial review call. Today, I will discuss our 2023 strategic and financial performance. Stephen Coughlin, our CFO, will discuss our financial results and outlook in more detail shortly.

各位早安，感謝各位參加我們2023年第四季及全年財務回顧電話會議。今天，我將主要介紹我們2023年的策略和財務表現。我們的財務長史蒂芬·考夫林先生稍後將更詳細地介紹我們的財務業績和展望。

Beginning on Slide 3. 2023 was our best year ever, as we met or exceeded all of our strategic and financial objectives, including signing a record of 5.6 gigawatts of new PPAs, putting us well on track to achieve 14 to 17 gigawatts of new signings through 2025. Completing 3.5 gigawatts of construction, exceeding the target we laid out and doubling our additions compared to 2022. Delivering adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion in the top end of our guidance range and adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $3.4 billion. Achieving adjusted EPS of $1.76 and parent free cash flow of just over $1 billion, both beyond the top end of our guidance ranges, and realizing asset sales proceeds of $1.1 billion, significantly above our target of $400 million to $600 million.

從幻燈片3開始。 2023年是我們有史以來業績最好的一年，我們實現了所有策略和財務目標，包括簽署了創紀錄的5.6吉瓦新購電協議（PPA），這使我們能夠穩步實現到2025年新增14至17吉瓦的目標。我們完成了3.5吉瓦的建設，超過了我們設定的目標，與2022年相比，新增裝置容量翻了一番。我們實現了28億美元的調整後EBITDA，處於我們預期範圍的上限；包含稅收屬性的調整後EBITDA為34億美元。我們實現了1.76美元的調整後每股收益（EPS）和略高於10億美元的母公司自由現金流，這兩項指標均超過了我們預期範圍的上限；此外，我們還實現了11億美元的資產出售收益，遠高於我們4億至6億美元的目標。

Turning to Slide 4. Despite the backdrop of rising interest rates and supply chain challenges across the sector, we demonstrated that our business model is strong, resilient and well positioned. Demand across the sector has never been stronger. And in this context, I'm pleased to announce that we are raising our expected annual growth rate for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. We now expect our adjusted EBITDA to grow at an annual rate of 5% to 7% and adjusted EPS to grow at 7% to 9%, both through 2027. We are also reaffirming all of our other existing guidance. I can definitely say that I have never felt better about the outlook for this business.

請看第四張投影片。儘管整個產業面臨利率上升和供應鏈挑戰的雙重壓力，但我們已證明我們的商業模式穩健、富有韌性且市場定位精準。整個產業的需求從未如此強勁。在此背景下，我很高興地宣布，我們將上調調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EPS 的預期年增長率。我們現在預計，到 2027 年，調整後 EBITDA 將以 5% 至 7% 的年增長率成長，調整後 EPS 將以 7% 至 9% 的年增長率成長。同時，我們也重申所有其他現有業績指引。我可以肯定地說，我對公司的未來前景從未如此充滿信心。

Turning to power purchase agreement signings on Slide 5. We signed 5.6 gigawatts of new PPAs in 2023, more than any other year in our company's 43-year history, putting us well on track to sign 14 to 17 gigawatts of new renewable contracts from 2023 through 2025.

接下來我們來看投影片 5 的購電協議簽署情況。 2023 年，我們簽署了 5.6 吉瓦的新購電協議，超過了公司 43 年曆史上的任何一年，這使我們能夠順利地在 2023 年至 2025 年期間簽署 14 至 17 吉瓦的新可再生能源合約。

Today, our backlog of projects with signed PPAs is 12.3 gigawatts, the vast majority of which will be commissioned over the next 3 years. It is worthwhile to note that all of the projects in our contracted backlog remain on track for timely completion, consistent with our historical performance.

目前，我們已簽署購電協議 (PPA) 的專案儲備量為 12.3 吉瓦，其中絕大部分將在未來三年內投入營運。值得注意的是，所有已簽約的項目均按計劃推進，並有望按時完工，這與我們以往的業績表現一致。

Moving to Slide 6. I'd like to highlight that the largest segment of our new business is with corporate customers. In fact, in 2023, nearly 60% of the 3.5 gigawatts of projects we brought online were to serve corporate customers and large technology companies, in particular.

接下來是第六張投影片。我想重點強調，我們新業務的最大組成部分是企業客戶。事實上，在2023年，我們上線的3.5吉瓦專案中，近60%是服務企業客戶，尤其是大型科技公司。

Bloomberg New Energy Finance has consistently named AES as 1 of the top 2 providers of renewable energy to corporations worldwide, and our business continues to expand, particularly, given our focus on serving the power needs from data centers, which are powering the rapid growth of AI.

彭博新能源財經一直將 AES 評為全球企業再生能源供應商前兩強之一，而且我們的業務還在不斷擴張，尤其是在我們專注於滿足資料中心的電力需求的情況下，而資料中心正在推動人工智慧的快速發展。

We are well positioned to serve this customer segment for a number of reasons. First, we have been on the forefront of working directly with these technology companies to provide innovative solutions to achieve specific renewable energy profile.

我們具備服務這群客戶的優勢，原因有以下幾點。首先，我們一直走在與這些科技公司直接合作的前沿，致力於提供創新解決方案，以實現特定的再生能源目標。

Back in 2021, we were the first company to introduce hourly match renewable energy. And today, we are working with all of the hyperscale data center companies to provide solutions that are tailored for their renewable energy and sustainability goals.

早在2021年，我們就率先推出了按小時配對的再生能源方案。如今，我們正與所有超大規模資料中心公司合作，為其提供量身定制的解決方案，以滿足其再生能源和永續發展目標。

Second, we have a strong track record of delivering our projects on time, on budget, while meeting the unique needs of our customers, which I will cover in more detail momentarily. Our record of reliability is something that is increasingly recognized and valued by our customers.

其次，我們擁有良好的專案交付記錄，能夠按時按預算完成項目，同時滿足客戶的獨特需求，這一點我稍後會詳細介紹。我們可靠的業績記錄正日益受到客戶的認可和重視。

And third, we have the scale and the pipeline to address growing demand from data centers, which is estimated to more than double by 2030. With over 50 gigawatts of projects in our development pipeline and advanced interconnection queue positions in the most relevant markets in the U.S., we are particularly well positioned to meet the energy demand of technology customers.

第三，我們擁有足夠的規模和專案儲備來滿足資料中心日益增長的需求，預計到 2030 年，資料中心的需求將成長一倍以上。我們目前有超過 50 吉瓦的專案正在開發中，並且在美國最相關的市場中擁有先進的連網排隊位置，因此我們特別有能力滿足科技客戶的能源需求。

Turning to Slide 7. Our success with corporate customers combined with our improved efficiency in development and construction, have increased the returns that we have seen across our renewable portfolio. As a result, we're upping our U.S. return ranges by 200 basis points to 12% to 15% on a levered after-tax cash basis.

請看第7張投影片。我們在企業客戶方面的成功，以及我們在開發和建造方面的效率提升，提高了我們整個再生能源投資組合的回報率。因此，我們將美國專案的回報率預期上調200個基點，達到12%至15%（基於槓桿稅後現金流）。

We are seeing even higher returns internationally. With strong market demand in AES' leading position, we are able to be increasingly selective about the projects we built, with a focus on those with the best overall financial benefits.

我們在國際市場上獲得了更高的回報。憑藉AES的領先地位和強勁的市場需求，我們能夠更挑剔地選擇建設項目，專注於那些整體財務效益最佳的項目。

Next, turning to construction on Slide 8. Our ability to complete projects on time and on budget has become a major differentiator for AES. Not only is this something that our customers highly value, but it is also a pillar of our business model, and ensures that our realized financial returns are on average, equal to or better than our projections.

接下來，請看第8張投影片，了解施工狀況。我們按時按預算完成專案的能力已成為AES的一項重要競爭優勢。這不僅是客戶高度重視的優勢，也是我們商業模式的支柱，並確保我們實際的財務回報平均而言等於或高於預期。

At the time of PPA signing, we lock in contractual arrangements for all major equipment, EPC and long-term financing, which we hedge to ensure no interest rate exposure. At the same time, we systematically embed flexibility in our supply chain to safeguard against a variety of scenarios. We also have a multiyear strategic arrangement with top suppliers, including Fluence, who we see as having the most competitive product in the industry.

在簽署購電協議時，我們會鎖定所有主要設備、工程總承包（EPC）和長期融資的合約安排，並進行避險以確保無利率風險。同時，我們會在供應鏈中系統性地增加彈性，以應對各種可能出現的情況。此外，我們也與包括Fluence在內的頂級供應商簽訂了多年策略合作協議，我們認為Fluence的產品在業界最具競爭力。

More than half of our solar projects in recent years have co-located storage components, and our relationship with Fluence helped us to have the best on-time project completion rate in the industry.

近年來，我們超過一半的太陽能專案都配備了儲能組件，而我們與 Fluence 的合作關係幫助我們實現了業內最佳的專案按時完成率。

In 2024, we feel very confident in our ability to add 3.6 gigawatts of new projects, including 2.2 gigawatts in the U.S. We currently have 100% of the major equipment for these projects contractually secured and nearly 80% already on site.

2024年，我們非常有信心新增3.6吉瓦的項目，其中包括美國的2.2吉瓦。目前，這些項目的主要設備已100%簽訂合同，近80%的設備已運抵現場。

Now turning to our utilities, beginning on Slide 9. In 2023, we achieved important milestones at our U.S. utilities that will drive future growth, continued decarbonization and improvement in customer service. At AES, Ohio, we put in place a new regulatory framework. And at AES Indiana, we reached a unanimous settlement for our first rate case since 2018. As a result, investments are on track for the rate base growth in the high teens at both utilities, and we now have close to 70% of our planned investments through 2027 already approved in regulatory orders.

現在讓我們來看看我們的公用事業業務，從第9張幻燈片開始。 2023年，我們在美國公用事業領域取得了多項重要里程碑，這些成就將推動未來的成長、持續的脫碳進程以及客戶服務的提升。在俄亥俄州的AES公司，我們建立了一套新的監管架構。在印第安納州的AES公司，我們自2018年以來首次就費率調整達成了一致和解。因此，兩家公用事業公司的投資都按計劃進行，預計將實現接近10%的費率基數成長。目前，我們計劃在2027年的投資中，已有近70%獲得了監管部門的批准。

Turning to Slide 10. At AES, Ohio, we are embarking on the largest investment program that this utility has ever seen, which includes the expansion and enhancement in our transmission assets. With over 25% rate base growth per year, this is one of the fastest transmission growth rates in the country. We also recently filed for regulatory approval of the second phase of our smart grid plant, which upgrades our grid to improve service quality and customer experience.

請翻到第10張投影片。在俄亥俄州AES公司，我們正在啟動公司有史以來最大的投資計劃，其中包括擴大和升級我們的輸電資產。我們每年的費率基數成長超過25%，是全美輸電成長速度最快的公司之一。此外，我們最近也提交了智慧電網二期工程的監管審批申請，該工程旨在升級我們的電網，從而提高服務品質和客戶體驗。

Turning to Slide 11. At AES, Indiana, we continue to invest to improve service quality and greener generation mix. I am happy to say that we now have regulatory approval for the build-out of all named renewable projects at AES Indiana, encompassing 106 megawatts of wind, 445 megawatts of solar and 245 megawatts of energy storage.

請看第11張投影片。在AES印第安納州公司，我們持續投資以提升服務品質並實現更環保的發電結構。我很高興地宣布，AES印第安納州公司所有已公佈的可再生能源項目均已獲得監管部門批准，其中包括106兆瓦的風能、445兆瓦的太陽能和245兆瓦的儲能。

As we continue to invest in our customer experience, service quality and sustainability at both of our U.S. utilities, 2 core principles have guided our growth plans. First is customer affordability as we address much needed investments. We currently have the lowest residential rates in both states, which we expect to maintain throughout this period of growth. And second is to prioritize the timely recovery of our investments through existing mechanisms and programs. Across both utilities, we now anticipate approximately 75% of the growth capital to be deployed under such mechanisms, which substantially reduces regulatory lag.

隨著我們持續投資美國兩家公用事業公司，提升客戶體驗、服務品質和永續發展能力，兩大核心原則指導我們的成長計畫。首先是確保客戶能夠負擔得起，同時我們也致力於進行必要的投資。目前，我們在兩州都擁有最低的居民用電價格，並預計在整個增長期內保持這一優勢。其次，我們將優先透過現有機制和項目及時收回投資。目前，我們預計兩家公用事業公司約75%的成長資金將透過這些機制投入使用，將大幅縮短監管滯後時間。

Finally, turning to Slide 12. Last year, we set an asset sale proceeds target of $400 million to $600 million. We greatly exceeded this range, with $1.1 billion of gross proceeds. These transactions not only put a high valuation marker on our businesses, but also put us well on our way towards achieving our asset sales goal of $2 billion through 2025 and $3.5 billion through 2027.

最後，請看第12張投影片。去年，我們設定的資產出售收益目標為4億至6億美元。我們遠遠超過了這個目標，總收益達到了11億美元。這些交易不僅提升了我們業務的估值，也使我們朝著2025年前資產出售收益達到20億美元、2027年前達到35億美元的目標穩步邁進。

Our success this past year provides us with a cushion, and we expect 2024 to be another strong year. With that, I would like to turn the call over to our CFO, Stephen Coughlin.

過去一年的成功為我們提供了緩衝，我們預計2024年將又是強勁的一年。接下來，我將把電話交給我們的財務長史蒂芬‧考夫林。

Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will discuss our 2023 results and capital allocation, our 2024 guidance and our updated expectations through 2027.

謝謝安德烈斯，大家早安。今天，我將討論我們2023年的業績和資本配置、2024年的業績指引以及我們對2027年及之前業績的最新預期。

As Andres mentioned, 2023 was AES' best year on record, as we met or exceeded all of our strategic and financial targets. We beat our adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.65 to $1.75 and our parent free cash flow guidance range of $950 million to $1 billion. We also recorded strong adjusted EBITDA, well above the midpoint of our inaugural guidance range of $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion.

正如安德烈斯所言，2023年是AES有史以來業績最好的一年，我們達到或超越了所有策略和財務目標。我們調整後的每股盈餘（EPS）超過了先前1.65美元至1.75美元的預期範圍，母公司自由現金流也超過了先前9.5億美元至10億美元的預期範圍。此外，我們的調整後EBITDA也表現強勁，遠高於先前26億美元至29億美元的預期範圍中位數。

Turning to Slide 14. Full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was $3.4 billion versus $3.2 billion in 2022, driven primarily by contributions from new renewables projects as well as the recovery of prior year's purchase power costs at AES Ohio, included as part of the ESP 4 settlement. These drivers were partially offset by lower contributions from the energy infrastructure SBU.

請看第14頁投影片。 2023年全年經調整後的EBITDA（含稅收屬性）為34億美元，高於2022年的32億美元，主要得益於新增再生能源專案的貢獻，以及AES俄亥俄分公司上年度購電成本的回收（該成本已包含在ESP 4和解協議中）。這些成長被能源基礎設施業務單位貢獻的減少部分抵消。

Turning to Slide 15. Adjusted EPS was $1.76 in 2023 versus $1.67 in 2022. Drivers were similar to those for adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes. In addition, there was a $0.06 headwind from parent interest on higher debt balances, primarily used to fund new renewables projects. I'll cover our results in more detail over the next 4 slides, beginning with the renewable strategic business unit, or SBU, on Slide 16.

翻到第15頁幻燈片。 2023年調整後每股收益為1.76美元，而2022年為1.67美元。其驅動因素與調整後EBITDA（含稅收因素）的驅動因素類似。此外，母公司因債務餘額增加而產生的利息支出也對每股收益造成了0.06美元的負面影響，這些債務主要用於為新的再生能源項目提供資金。接下來的四張投影片我將更詳細地介紹我們的業績，首先從第16頁投影片中的再生能源策略事業單位（SBU）開始。

Higher adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes at our Renewables SBU was primarily driven by contributions from the 3.5 gigawatts of new projects that came online in 2023 as well as higher margins in Colombia, but partially offset by the sell-down of select U.S. renewable operating assets.

我們再生能源業務部門經稅收屬性調整後的 EBITDA 增加，主要得益於 2023 年上線的 3.5 吉瓦新項目的貢獻以及哥倫比亞更高的利潤率，但部分被出售部分美國可再生能源運營資產所抵消。

At our Utilities SBU, higher adjusted PTC was primarily driven by the recovery of prior year's purchase power costs at AES Ohio included as part of the ESP 4 settlement as well as rate base growth in the U.S.

在我們公用事業業務單元，調整後的 PTC 增加主要是由於 AES Ohio 上一年購電成本的回收（作為 ESP 4 和解協議的一部分）以及美國費率基礎的增長所致。

Lower adjusted EBITDA at our energy infrastructure SBU reflects significant LNG transaction margins in 2022, lower margins in Chile and the sale of a minority interest in our Southland combined-cycle assets. These drivers were partially offset by the higher revenues recognized from the accelerated monetization of the PPA at our Warrior Run coal plant.

我們能源基礎設施業務單位調整後 EBITDA 下降，主要反映了 2022 年液化天然氣交易利潤率大幅下降、智利業務利潤率降低以及出售了我們在南加州聯合循環發電資產中的少數股權。這些不利因素被 Warrior Run 燃煤電廠購電協議加速變現帶來更高收入的部分抵消。

Finally, at our New Energy Technologies SBU, higher adjusted EBITDA reflects improved results at Fluence, which achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in their fiscal fourth quarter of 2023. Fluence also guided to positive adjusted EBITDA for their full fiscal year 2024.

最後，在我們新能源技術事業部，調整後 EBITDA 的增加反映了 Fluence 業績的改善，該公司在 2023 財年第四季度實現了正的調整後 EBITDA。 Fluence 也預計其 2024 財年也將全年實現正的調整後 EBITDA。

Now let's turn to how we allocated our capital last year on Slide 20. Beginning on the left-hand side, sources reflect $3 billion of total discretionary cash. This includes parent free cash flow of just over $1 billion, which increased nearly 11% from the prior year, to just above the top end of our guidance. We also significantly surpassed our asset sales target, with $750 million in net asset sales proceeds to the AES parent after subsidiary-level debt repayment, reinvestment and taxes. And we issued $900 million of parent debt in May of last year.

現在讓我們來看看第20頁幻燈片中我們去年的資本分配狀況。從左側開始，資金來源反映了30億美元的可支配現金總額。其中包括母公司略高於10億美元的自由現金流，較上年增加近11%，略高於我們預期的上限。此外，我們也大幅超額完成了資產出售目標，在償還子公司債務、進行再投資和繳納稅款後，AES母公司淨資產出售所得為7.5億美元。去年5月，我們發行了9億美元的母公司債券。

Moving to uses on the right-hand side. We invested more than $2.1 billion in growth at our subsidiaries, of which approximately 2/3 was in the U.S. We also allocated more than $500 million of discretionary cash to our dividend.

接下來我們來看右側的資金用途。我們在子公司發展方面投資超過21億美元，其中約三分之二投資於美國。此外，我們也撥出超過5億美元的自由支配現金用於分紅。

Overall, I'm extremely pleased with our financial performance throughout 2023.

整體而言，我對我們2023年的財務表現非常滿意。

Now let's turn to our guidance and expectations, beginning on Slide 21. Today, we're initiating 2024 adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes guidance of $3.6 billion to $4 billion, driven by over $500 million in contributions from new renewables projects and from rate base growth at our U.S. utilities. We have also incorporated a $200 million partially offsetting impact from asset sales we either closed in 2023 or planned to close this year.

現在讓我們來看看我們的業績指引和預期，從第21頁開始。今天，我們首次發布2024年調整後EBITDA（含稅收屬性）指引，目標為36億美元至40億美元，主要得益於新增可再生能源項目帶來的超過5億美元的貢獻以及美國公用事業公司費率基礎的增長。此外，我們也計入了部分抵銷影響的2億美元資產出售款項，這些資產出售我們已於2023年完成或計劃於今年完成。

Excluding the $1 billion in tax attributes, we expect to recognize in 2024, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion. The increase in tax attributes versus the prior year is partially due to our continued use of tax credit transfers, which results in earlier recognition of tax credits than typical tax equity structures. In addition, last year's increase in new project completions will drive higher tax attribute recognition in 2024. As a reminder, we will recognize approximately 1/3 of tax attributes generated on 2023 projects in the 2024 fiscal year.

剔除預計在2024年確認的10億美元稅收收益後，調整後EBITDA預計為26億至29億美元。稅收收益較上年增加，部分原因是由於我們持續採用稅收抵免轉移，這使得稅收抵免的確認時間早於典型的稅收權益結構。此外，去年新工程竣工數量的增加也將推動2024年稅金確認金額的上升。需要提醒的是，我們將在2024財政年度確認2023年專案產生的約三分之一的稅務收益。

Looking beyond this year, our head start on asset sales gives us greater visibility toward our longer-term growth and puts downward pressure on our capital budget. We expect EBITDA to increase each year through the remainder of our long-term guidance period.

展望未來，我們在資產出售方面取得的先機使我們對長期成長有了更清晰的認識，並對資本預算構成下行壓力。我們預計在剩餘的長期業績指引期內，EBITDA 將逐年成長。

Turning to Slide 22. We expect 2024 adjusted EPS of $1.87 to $1.97, which represents a 9% increase year-over-year and puts us on track to achieve our 7% to 9% long-term growth target through 2025. Growth will be primarily driven by our renewables and utilities businesses and will be partially offset by higher parent interest. We also expect an $0.08 headwind from asset sales.

請看第22頁投影片。我們預計2024年調整後每股盈餘為1.87美元至1.97美元，年增9%，這將使我們有望實現2025年7%至9%的長期成長目標。成長將主要由我們的再生能源和公用事業業務驅動，但部分成長將被母公司更高的持股比例所抵消。此外，我們預期資產出售將帶來每股0.08美元的負面影響。

Our construction program this year is more evenly spread than in recent years. As a result, we expect approximately 40% of our earnings to be recognized in the first half of the year and 60% in the second half, and we will have greater visibility throughout the year into our expected construction completion.

今年我們的建設項目安排比往年更為均衡。因此，我們預計上半年將確認約40%的收益，下半年將確認約60%的收益，並且全年我們對預計的竣工進度將有更清晰的了解。

Turning to Slide 23. As Andres mentioned, our very strong market position in providing tailored solutions to corporate clients, including large data centers, has allowed us to realize higher returns on our renewables projects. In addition, as our renewals business continues to scale, we anticipate further realization of productivity and scale benefits.

請看第23頁投影片。正如安德烈斯所提到的，我們在為企業客戶（包括大型資料中心）提供客製化解決方案方面擁有非常強大的市場地位，這使我們能夠在再生能源專案上獲得更高的回報。此外，隨著再生能源業務的不斷擴大，我們預計將進一步實現生產力和規模效益的提升。

Based on these factors and our 2023 results, we now expect AES' U.S. renewables returns to be in the 12% to 15% range. These higher returns in the U.S., along with productivity benefits, are directly accretive to our earnings and cash flow. And as a result, we are increasing our expected long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate to 5% to 7% and our long-term adjusted EPS growth rate to 7% to 9% through 2027, off a base of our 2023 guidance midpoint.

基於上述因素以及我們對2023年業績的預測，我們現在預期AES在美國再生能源領域的回報率將在12%至15%之間。美國市場更高的回報率，以及生產力提升帶來的效益，將直接增加我們的利潤和現金流。因此，我們將2027年之前的長期調整後EBITDA成長率預期上調至5%至7%，長期調整後每股盈餘成長率預期上調至7%至9%（以2023年業績指引中位數為基準）。

Now turning to our 2024 parent capital allocation plan on Slide 24, beginning with approximately $3.1 billion of sources on the left-hand side. Parent free cash flow for 2024 is expected to be around $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion. We expect to generate $900 million to $1.1 billion of net asset sale proceeds this year. By the end of this year, we expect to be more than halfway toward the $3.5 billion gross asset sales target we announced on our third quarter earnings call.

現在來看看第24頁幻燈片中的2024年母公司資本配置計劃，首先是左側列出的約31億美元的資金來源。預計2024年母公司自由現金流約10.5億美元至11.5億美元。我們預計今年將獲得9億美元至11億美元的淨資產出售收益。今年底，我們預計將完成第三季財報電話會議上宣布的35億美元總資產出售目標的一半以上。

Although we expect an increase of approximately $1 billion of parent debt this year, our business is well insulated from changes in interest rates. Our new projects are funded primarily with fixed rate or long-term hedged, self-amortizing debt, with tenors similar to the length of our PPAs, and more than 80% of our outstanding debt is nonrecourse to AES Corp. Our exposure from floating rates and future issuances is managed with nearly $8 billion in outstanding hedges.

儘管我們預計今年母公司債務將增加約10億美元，但我們的業務受利率變動的影響較小。我們的新專案主要透過固定利率或長期避險的自攤銷債務進行融資，期限與我們的購電協議期限相近，且超過80%的未償債務為對AES公司的無追索權債務。我們透過近80億美元的未償還對沖合約來管理浮動利率和未來發行債券帶來的風險敞口。

Looking at the impact of a 100 basis point shift in rates on our future issuances, refinancings and outstanding U.S. floating rate debt, we have only $0.01 of EPS exposure from interest rates in 2024.

考慮到利率變動 100 個基點對我們未來發行、再融資和未償付的美國浮動利率債務的影響，2024 年我們因利率變動而導致的每股盈餘風險敞口僅為 0.01 美元。

Now to the uses on the right-hand side. We plan to invest approximately $2.6 billion in new growth, of which about 85% will be allocated to growing our renewables portfolio and utility rate base. More than 90% of this will be directed into the U.S., with the remainder going to growth projects in Chile and Panama. We expect to allocate approximately $500 million to our shareholder dividend, which reflects the previously announced 4% increase.

現在來看右側的資金用途。我們計劃投資約26億美元用於新的成長，其中約85%將用於擴大我們的再生能源組合和公用事業費率基礎。超過90%的資金將投入美國，其餘部分將用於智利和巴拿馬的成長項目。我們預計將撥出約5億美元用於股東分紅，這反映了先前宣布的4%的成長。

Turning to Slide 25. Our long-term sources of parent capital through 2027 reflect the accelerated asset sales target we introduced on our third quarter call. We also expect higher organic cash generation as a result of our increased long-term growth rates. As a reminder, we will not issue any new equity until 2026 at the earliest, and will only do so in a way that creates value on a per share basis.

請翻到第25頁投影片。我們2027年之前的長期母公司資本來源反映了我們在第三季電話會議上提出的加速資產出售目標。此外，由於長期成長率的提高，我們預期內生現金流也將增加。再次提醒，我們最快也要到2026年才會發行新股，而且發行新股也只會以創造每股價值為目標。

Now to Slide 26. Uses through 2027 reflect more than $7 billion of investment in our subsidiaries, primarily to grow our renewables and utilities businesses. We also expect to allocate more than $2 billion to our dividend.

現在來看第26張投影片。截至2027年的資金用途反映了我們對子公司超過70億美元的投資，主要用於發展我們的再生能源和公用事業業務。我們也預計將撥出超過20億美元用於分紅。

Given our surplus of attractive investment opportunities and our desire to minimize equity issuance as a source of capital, we now expect to grow our dividend at 2% to 3% annually beyond 2024. We believe this provides an optimal balance between an already attractive dividend yield and strong earnings and cash flow growth throughout our plan period.

鑑於我們擁有大量具有吸引力的投資機會，並且我們希望盡量減少透過發行股票來籌集資金，我們現在預計2024年以後，股息將以每年2%至3%的速度增長。我們相信，這在現有頗具吸引力的股息收益率與整個計劃期內強勁的盈利和現金流增長之間實現了最佳平衡。

In summary, 2023 was an extraordinary year for AES. We demonstrated our ability to adapt to the current market and execute on our growth commitments, while we further advanced our competitive position. As we continue to perfect and scale our renewables machine, we expect to have another record year in 2024 and to deliver on our now higher long-term growth target.

總而言之，2023年對AES來說是非凡的一年。我們展現了適應當前市場並履行成長承諾的能力，同時進一步提升了自身的競爭優勢。隨著我們持續完善並擴大再生能源業務規模，我們預計2024年將再創佳績，並實現我們目前更高的長期成長目標。

We have positioned AES to achieve our strategic priorities and grow our business in a way that's highly value accretive to our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andres.

我們已對AES進行策略性佈局，以實現我們的策略重點，並以能為股東創造巨大價值的方式發展業務。接下來，我將把電話轉回給安德烈斯。

Thank you, Steve. In summary, 2023 was our best year ever, as we met or exceeded all of our strategic and financial objectives across our guidance metrics, PPA signings, construction completions and asset sales.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。總而言之，2023年是我們有史以來最好的一年，我們在各項指導指標、購電協議簽署、建設竣工和資產出售方面都達到或超過了所有戰略和財務目標。

We are seeing strong demand for renewables across the sector, particularly due to the unprecedented demand from data centers. As a result, we are not only upping our U.S. project return rates increasing our expected average annual growth rate for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share through 2027.

我們看到整個產業對再生能源的需求強勁，尤其是在資料中心前所未有的需求推動下。因此，我們不僅提高了美國專案的回報率，也提高了到2027年調整後EBITDA和調整後每股盈餘的預期年均成長率。

Finally, our significant success with asset sales to date as well as the outlook for the near future, gives us great comfort in our long-term funding plan. With that, I would like to open the call for questions.

最後，迄今為止我們在資產出售方面取得的顯著成功以及近期前景，讓我們對長期融資計劃充滿信心。接下來，我謹開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Nick Campanella with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的尼克·坎帕內拉。

I appreciate all the updates. So I guess you originally had a 3% to 5% EBITDA target when you kind of put out that Analyst Day range? And then I guess the EBITDA guidance that you gave today for fiscal '24 does seem to just be a bit flat versus that growth outlook. Is that just from the timing of asset sales? Could you just help kind of clarify what's driving that?

感謝您提供的所有最新資訊。所以，我猜您最初在分析師日公佈的EBITDA目標區間是3%到5%？而今天您給出的2024財年EBITDA指引似乎與先前的成長預期相比略顯平淡。這僅僅是由於資產出售的時間表造成的嗎？您能否解釋一下具體原因？

Yes. Nick, it's Steve. That's right. I mean it's primarily because we're ahead on the asset sale target significantly from 2023. You had the $1.1 billion versus the $400 million to $600 million guidance. So that's why the asset sale drag as there's a lag when we redeploy the capital and it's yielding again, is about 200 this year. So a little higher than what we would have anticipated a year ago.

是的，尼克，我是史蒂夫。沒錯。我的意思是，這主要是因為我們的資產出售目標比2023年的目標提前了很多。你們之前給的預期是4億到6億美元，而實際目標金額是11億美元。所以，由於資金重新部署需要一段時間才能再次產生收益，資產出售帶來的拖累效應今年大約是2億美元。這比我們一年前的預期略高一些。

So overall, good news for the -- But it is offsetting the growth that's coming from the rate base and the utilities and in the renewables projects. That's right.

所以總的來說，這對…來說是個好消息。但這抵消了來自費率基礎、公用事業和再生能源項目的成長。沒錯。

That's helpful. And then just on asset sales, to the extent that you're continuing to be successful here, and doing more versus what you kind of have in this plan? Just -- is there room to kind of offset that $1 billion of parent debt issuance? Does that change at all? Where exactly is there flexibility in this plan today from your perspective? And then could you just also kind of update us on where your leverage targets are in your minimums in this new plan?

這很有幫助。那麼，關於資產出售，如果你們繼續取得成功，並且計劃規模超出目前的預期，是否有空間來抵銷10億美元的母公司債務發行？情況會有任何變化嗎？從你們的角度來看，目前的計畫有哪些彈性？另外，能否也向我們介紹一下新計畫中最低槓桿目標的情況？

Yes. Yes. No. So definitely. So we have -- the investment grade is a top priority. So we are -- we designed the plan to meet the investment-grade targets that we have. And keep in mind -- and we built cushion into the metrics themselves. But also keep in mind that the quality and the duration of the cash flows in the business is transitioning dramatically. So we're going to a much longer duration, average duration of contracts as -- there's 20-year contracts. This is clean energy, no carbon risk. These are U.S. dollar contracts with large corporates, many of which are data center customers, big tech companies, very high-quality credit.

是的。是的。不。所以，當然。投資等級評級是我們的首要任務。因此，我們制定了計劃，以實現我們設定的投資等級目標。請記住，我們在各項指標中都預留了緩衝空間。但同時也要記住，業務現金流的品質和持續時間正在發生顯著變化。我們將採用更長的合約期限，平均合約期限為20年。這是清潔能源，沒有碳排放風險。這些是以美元計價的合同，客戶是大型企業，其中許多是數據中心客戶、大型科技公司，信用評級非常高。

So it's both the solid credit metrics as well as the quality and profile of the cash flows that's evolving. We don't count on that when sizing the new debt, we count just the metrics, but the quality is improving as well.

因此，穩健的信用指標以及現金流的品質和狀況都在不斷發展。我們在評估新增債務規模時並不考慮這些因素，我們只關注各項指標，但現金流的品質也不斷提高。

So in terms of levers, look, I mean the asset sale target is, as it's always been, has multiple ways that it can be achieved. There's some conservatism built in over the total. We have fully anticipated any temporal dilutive impacts in the numbers that we've given, as I said, but there is some flex there as needed. But on the debt side, the investment grade is a top priority.

所以就政策槓桿而言，我的意思是，資產出售目標一如既往，可以透過多種方式實現。總體目標已經包含了一定的保守性。正如我所說，我們已經充分考慮到了任何暫時性的股權稀釋影響，但如有需要，我們也會有一定的靈活性。但在債務方面，維持投資等級信用評等是重中之重。

All right. I'll leave it there. I really appreciate it.

好的，我就說到這裡吧。非常感謝。

We now turn to David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

現在我們來聽聽摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅怎麼說。

I wanted to dig in a little bit on the higher return levels that you're projecting. On the higher return levels that you're projecting here, was there something that sparked it? Any kind of catalyst that has pushed you up in terms of the higher return levels in the renewables business? We've been in a higher interest rate environment for -- obviously, for a while, higher PPA price environment for a while. Is it more the mix of end customers that you're selling to now?

我想深入探討您預測的更高回報水平。您預測的較高報酬水準背後有什麼因素促成了這項預測？是否存在某種催化劑，促使您在再生能源業務方面提高了回報預期？我們目前正處於較高的利率環境，購電協議（PPA）價格也已上漲一段時間。您現在銷售的終端客戶群組成是否是主要原因？

Dave, I'd say it's a combination of things. So first and foremost is the returns that we are -- on prior PPAs that we signed. So that's the first. We are seeing that we're getting higher returns. Second, what's driving these higher returns?

戴夫，我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先也是最重要的是我們先前簽署的購電協議（PPA）的報酬。這是第一點，我們看到我們獲得了更高的回報。其次，是什麼因素推動了這些更高的回報呢？

You may recall -- for some time, maybe like 3 years ago, starting 3, 4 years ago, I started saying that in select markets, there would be really a shortage of good renewable projects. And these are markets like California, like PJM, New York. So what we started to do is position ourselves and actually enter the queue, buy land rights, et cetera, to have projects to be able to fulfill this. So I think that part of it is the select markets, you are starting to see the shortage of renewables that we had been say, see. And I think this is something that will spread sort of market to market. It's not going to be true for all markets. Out West, there's a lot of land. There's not that much demand, but in select markets, you will be seeing that.

您可能還記得──大概三、四年前，我就開始說，在某些特定市場，優質再生能源專案將會嚴重短缺。這些市場包括加州、PJM、紐約等。所以我們開始著手佈局，積極參與專案排隊，購買土地使用權等等，以便開發能滿足需求的專案。我認為，部分原因在於，在這些特定市場，我們之前提到的再生能源短缺問題已經開始出現。而且我認為這種情況會逐漸蔓延到其他市場。並非所有市場都會如此。例如，西部地區土地資源豐富，但需求並不旺盛。然而，在某些特定市場，這種情況將會出現。

So I think that's also part of the result is that we are positioned in the right markets. The third thing I would say is that we're becoming more efficient in our construction, in our development process and stay tuned, I think that will continue to improve. Realize that '20, '21, you had a lot of supply chain disruptions. Those are well past us, and we're really getting to optimize that.

所以我認為，部分原因在於我們選址得當，進入了正確的市場。第三點是，我們的施工和開發流程效率越來越高，敬請期待，我相信這方面還會持續改善。要知道，2020年和2021年我們經歷了許多供應鏈中斷。那些問題早已過去，我們正努力優化供應鏈。

So based on our greater efficiency, what we're seeing is that, yes, we are getting higher returns. And we've also positioned ourselves, this is about our fourth year, fifth year of really positioning ourselves with large corporate customers. And those corporate customers have very strong demand growing very quickly. So if you ask me from a sector point of view, I think the real question is, can we meet the demand that they have for lean energy in all of these markets?

因此，基於我們更高的效率，我們看到的是，是的，我們獲得了更高的回報。而且，我們已經與大型企業客戶建立了合作關係，這已經是我們第四年、第五年真正開始與這些客戶合作了。這些企業客戶的需求非常強勁，而且成長迅速。所以，如果從產業角度來看，我認為真正的問題是，我們能否滿足他們在所有這些市場對低碳能源的需求？

And by the way, I would add Chile as a similar market to California, where there's a real shortage of projects. This is a very strong demand from our customers and that we're very well placed. So this is not like a catalyst. This is -- we had several thesis, which have played out as we expected them to play out.

順便一提，智利也是一個與加州類似的市場，那裡的項目非常短缺。這是我們客戶非常強勁的需求，而我們在這方面也佔據了有利地位。所以這並非催化劑。我們之前就有幾個投資策略，而這些策略都如我們預期般得到了驗證。

Yes. And the only thing I would add, David, is that looking at 2023, what we signed up was well within to that new updated range.

是的。大衛，我唯一要補充的是，展望2023年，我們簽約的合約完全在新修訂的合約範圍內。

Okay. That's good to hear. And then in terms of the higher growth rates that you've outlined today, wondering if we could just unpack that a little bit. Is that all coming from the renewables segment in terms of the higher returns that you're seeing? Or is some of the -- is the utilities business or energy infrastructure also experiencing higher EBITDA growth outlook here?

好的，很高興聽到這個消息。關於您今天提到的較高成長率，我想請您詳細解釋一下。您看到的較高回報是否全部來自再生能源領域？還是說，公用事業或能源基礎設施業務的 EBITDA 成長前景也更好？

Well, what you have is both, I think, our 2 key segments, one is the utilities. We have some of the fastest growing utilities in the U.S. And second, yes, we are also seeing better returns in the renewable sector. So the combination of those 2 is resulting in a faster growth rate.

我認為，我們目前面臨的兩大關鍵業務部門分別是：一是公用事業，我們擁有美國成長最快的幾家公用事業公司；二是再生能源領域也取得了更好的回報。這兩大板塊的結合，推動了我們更快的成長速度。

Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

This is actually Cameron Lochridge on for Julien. I wanted to start just on the raised growth expectations. And kind of piggybacking on the last question, if I look at what you had planned for your EBITDA contributions across the different businesses, 45% renewables, 32% utilities, 23% energy infrastructure in 2027, how has that mix shifted as a reflection of this -- these raised expectations for growth?

現在我是卡梅倫·洛克里奇，替朱利安發言。我想先談談成長預期提高的問題。順便提一下上一個問題，如果我看一下你們之前對2027年各業務EBITDA貢獻的計劃，可再生能源佔45%，公用事業佔32%，能源基礎設施佔23%，那麼隨著增長預期的提高，這個比例發生了怎樣的變化？

Yes. So I would say, I think the mix roughly be maybe a little bit more on the renewable side, we're seeing the higher returns. So maybe that's above the 45, 50-ish. So it's going to be higher on the renewables. I think the utilities, as Andres said, it will be a little bit more of a share.

是的。所以我覺得，能源結構大致上可能會更偏向再生能源，因為我們看到再生能源的回報率更高。所以，再生能源的比例可能會超過45%到50%。也就是說，再生能源的比例會更高。正如安德烈斯所說，我認為公用事業的份額也會更高一些。

On the energy infrastructure, we did communicate that, that was going to shrink as we execute on the coal exit plan. Although for just a handful of assets, we extended that to 2027. So that dilution from those coal exits, this is the smaller portion, will be spread out over more time, which overall, I think, is a good thing in terms of the -- in the financials as well.

關於能源基礎設施，我們確實已經溝通過，隨著煤炭退出計畫的實施，這部分規模將會縮減。雖然只有少數資產的退出期限延長至2027年，但煤炭退出帶來的股權稀釋（這部分佔比較小）將被分散到更長的時間內，我認為這總體上對財務狀況來說是一件好事。

So a little more renewables, a little more utilities and then the energy infrastructure is shrinking a little bit less, but it's still in that same range.

所以，再生能源和公用事業的佔比略有增加，能源基礎設施的縮減幅度略有減小，但整體規模仍在原來的範圍內。

Got it. And then just digging in on the renewables, just the cumulative capacity additions you guys have communicated, tripling the bag to 25 to 30 gigawatts of cumulative additions, is that still the case through '27? Or is that bumped higher? Or is this purely just a function of returns improving? And then on that returns improving piece, how do we think about the bifurcation between, perhaps more ability to capitalize on IRA credits versus just true economic improvement vis-a-vis PPAs, pricing increasing? Just kind of help us unpack that a little bit.

明白了。接下來我們深入探討一下再生能源，你們之前提到的累計新增裝置容量，預計到2027年將翻三倍，達到25到30吉瓦，這個數字到2027年還會繼續保持嗎？還是說這個數字會比較高？或者這僅僅是由於回報率提高？關於回報率提高這一點，我們該如何看待其中的差異：一方面是利用IRA抵免額度的能力增強，另一方面是購電協議（PPA）價格上漲帶來的真正經濟效益提升？請你們幫我們分析一下。

Let me sort of give a big picture, and then I'll pass it off to Steve. Look, what we're going after, really, as I said in my script, is really going after those projects, which provide the best financial benefits. You've known me for a while, I've never gone for growth for growth's sake. So really, what we want to do is maximize shareholder value on a per share basis. So really, this is an upgrading of the quality of the growth, more than a greater numeric growth.

我先簡單概括一下，然後交給史蒂夫。你看，正如我在稿子裡所說的，我們真正追求的是那些能帶來最佳財務效益的專案。你也認識我，我從來不為了成長而成長。所以，我們真正想要的是最大化每股股東價值。因此，這實際上是在提升成長的質量，而不是追求更高的數位成長。

Now I do think that it's very important to understand sort of what market segments we're in. We're in the corporate segment, but we're also very heavily into the data center segment. And this is something, again, we've been working on for many years. We have really very good relationships with key clients, and that is a demand that's growing very quickly.

現在我認為，了解我們所處的市場區隔領域非常重要。我們面向企業客戶，同時也大力拓展資料中心領域。多年來，我們一直在努力開拓這一領域。我們與重要客戶建立了非常良好的關係，而且這方面的需求正在快速成長。

And certainly that we don't mention in our speech, quite frankly, because it's very early times. But we're really going to go after artificial intelligence as an efficiency improvement in the company. And we have a big kickoff meeting that we're going to have in the next couple of months. But this is something I think we've taken in a very sort of strategic line.

當然，坦白說，我們在演講中並沒有提及這一點，因為現在還處於非常早期的階段。但我們確實會大力推動人工智慧，將其作為提升公司效率的手段。我們將在未來幾個月內召開一次重要的啟動會議。我認為，我們已經從戰略層面考慮了這個問題。

Inderpal Bhandari, who was the global Chief Data Officer for IBM until 2023 has just joined our Board, and he is somebody who is very knowledgeable in the area. We also have Janet Davidson, who's also a PhD in computer science. It's interesting. I mean, right now, with Inderpal, we have 5 PhDs on our Board, which has got to be one of the highest percentages in things that run from computer science to finance to economics of business.

曾任IBM全球首席資料長（至2023年）的Inderpal Bhandari剛加入我們的董事會，他在該領域擁有非常豐富的知識。我們還有Janet Davidson，她也擁有電腦科學博士學位。這很有意思。我的意思是，現在，加上Inderpal，我們董事會共有5位博士，這在涵蓋電腦科學、金融和商業經濟學等領域的董事會中，博士比例絕對是最高的之一。

So that's what I wanted to put it in. What we're pursuing is returns. We're pursuing value per share. And I think we've been very systematic now for many years in positioning ourselves in a given sector and learning about and preparing ourselves for the new technologies which are coming. So there's a lot of buzzwords of AI. Well, what's behind this is 5, 6 years of getting ourselves in a position to really utilize the data and have the understanding of the company.

這就是我想表達的意思。我們追求的是回報，是每股價值。我認為，多年來，我們一直非常系統地在特定行業中定位自身，學習並為即將到來的新技術做好準備。現在有許多關於人工智慧的熱門詞彙。但背後是我們花了五、六年時間，讓自己能真正利用數據，並深入了解公司。

So with that, I'll pass it off to Steve to answer the other parts of your question.

那麼，接下來就交給史蒂夫回答你問題的其他部分了。

Yes. No, I agree wholeheartedly that we're focused on cash returns, and that's primarily where the higher growth coming from. You'll notice that it was really the EBITDA growth rate that ticked up the most. And so not really from tax credits. So we had already talked about that about 40% of our pipeline was in energy communities that continues to be roughly the case. So it's really from the cash generation of the assets that the increase in rates is coming up.

是的。我完全同意，我們專注於現金回報，而這正是成長的主要來源。你會注意到，真正大幅提升的是 EBITDA 成長率，而不是稅收抵免。我們之前已經提到，我們約 40% 的項目位於能源社區，目前情況大致如此。因此，費率上漲的真正動力來自資產產生的現金流。

And we're less focused on megawatts. So it's roughly a similar amount of capital, maybe even a little bit lower. But if that means less megawatts, that's okay. We're focused on what are the best returns that we can get for our capital that's deployed. And that's cash based and not based on the credit.

我們不太關注兆瓦數。所以資金投入大致相同，甚至可能略低。但如果這意味著兆瓦數減少，那也沒關係。我們關注的是如何讓投入的資金獲得最佳回報。而這種回報是基於現金流，而不是信貸。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just wanted to ask about the -- I want to ask you about the new projects, the 3.6 gigawatts to be added in 2024. I mean, obviously, you've done pretty well versus your own stated 5 gigawatt target, the renewable signing. You're doing 5.6, materially higher than 5 gigawatts. But why only like the level of gigawatts actually entering commercial operation is kind of flat to 2023? So just wondering if that's just related to project timing. Because I would have expected materially tick up, just the new projects going here.

我想問一下關於新專案的問題，也就是2024年新增的3.6吉瓦。我的意思是，很明顯，你們已經很好地完成了自己設定的5吉瓦目標，再生能源專案的簽約量也達到了5.6吉瓦，遠超5吉瓦。但是，為什麼實際投入商業營運的吉瓦數在2023年之前幾乎沒有變化呢？我想知道這是否與專案進度有關。因為我原本預期，隨著新專案的推進，裝置容量會大幅成長。

Yes. That's a good question. Look, 2023 was a dramatic year where we increased construction, 100%. And we've been saying, look, we're not going to grow it at 100% per year. Now we've been signing over 5 gigawatts a year of new PPAs. So eventually, these 2 have to somewhat converge. I mean, at some point, we have to be cutting the ribbon on around 5 gigawatts. But that's not going to happen likely next year, just because of the timing of some of the projects.

是的，問得好。你看，2023年是意義重大的一年，我們的建設規模成長了100%。但我們一直強調，我們不可能每年都維持100%的成長。現在，我們每年都在簽署5吉瓦的新購電協議（PPA）。所以最終，這兩者必須有所平衡。我的意思是，在某個時候，我們必須為大約5吉瓦的項目舉行落成典禮。但由於一些專案的進度安排，明年不太可能實現這一點。

We also have a developing transfer project as well, and that's not part of our backlog, but it's part of the signing. So that also is part of the reason for that. So this is not a signal of anything. It just has to be the particular timing of the projects that we have. And again, we feel this year, very good about commissioning them all on time and on budget. We have 100% of the major equipment, already secured and 80% of it is on site, which is we've never been that good this early in the process.

我們還有一個正在開發的轉讓項目，雖然它不在我們的待辦事項清單中，但卻是簽約項目的一部分。所以這也是部分原因。因此，這並不代表什麼。這只是我們現有專案的具體時間安排。再次強調，我們今年非常有信心能夠按時按預算完成所有專案的調試工作。我們已經100%落實了主要設備，其中80%已經運抵現場，這是我們在專案初期從未取得如此高的進展。

And I think another thing important that Steve said, this is going to be reflected in our earnings profile, whereas we were very back-end loaded last year because of this very rapid growth. As growth enters a more steady state, we're going to have 40% of our earnings in the first half and only 60% in the second half. So this is something we also worked very hard to achieve.

我認為史蒂夫提到的另一點也很重要，那就是這將在我們的獲利結構中有所體現。去年由於業務快速成長，我們的獲利主要集中在下半年。隨著成長趨於穩定，我們將把獲利的40%放在上半年，下半年僅佔60%。這也是我們努力實現的目標。

So qualitatively, we feel -- years '24, '25, you're going to have a catch up to the amount of PPAs that we're signing.

所以從定性角度來看，我們覺得——在 2024 年、2025 年，你們將會趕上我們簽署的購電協議 (PPA) 的數量。

Got it. And then maybe, Steve, can I just go back to Nick's question earlier on credit metrics? Can you just help us with where you ended 2023 on CFO, FFO debt versus your downgrade thresholds and where are you expecting 2024 to be?

明白了。那麼，史蒂夫，我能再回到之前尼克關於信用指標的問題嗎？你能幫我們說說2023年底你的CFO、FFO債務與降級門檻之間的關係，以及你對2024年的預期嗎？

(technical difficulty) and that ratio is actually improving over time in the planned period. So I would expect it to be at least at that level for the (technical difficulty)

（技術難度）而且該比例實際上在計劃期內隨著時間的推移而改善。所以我預計（技術難度）至少會達到該水準。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have lost connection with our speaker. Thank you for your patience as we reconnect them.

女士們、先生們，我們與演講者的連結中斷了。感謝您的耐心等待，我們正在重新連接。

Yes. Hello?

是的。你好？

Ladies and gentlemen, we now have our speakers reconnected. Durgesh, if you could resume with your question?

女士們、先生們，我們的發言人現在已經重新連結好了。杜爾蓋什，請你繼續提問好嗎？

I'm not sure if the issue was at mine or yours, but Steve, what I wanted to go back to was -- and Andres, we heard the response to my first question on the addition.

我不確定問題出在我這邊還是你那邊，但是史蒂夫，我想回到之前討論的問題是——還有安德烈斯，我們已經聽到了關於新增內容的第一個問題的回應。

Steve, in terms of credit metrics, I wanted to follow up on Nick's question earlier. Can you remind us where you're ending FFO to debt in 2023? And then where are you projecting 2024 to be versus your credit downgrade thresholds?

史蒂夫，關於信用指標，我想就尼克之前提出的問題做個後續說明。可以提醒我們一下，你們預計2023年底的FFO與負債比率是多少嗎？還有，你們預計2024年的FFO與信用評級下調門檻相比會是多少？

Yes, no problem, Durgesh. Sorry, everyone about the disconnection. So hopefully, everyone can hear us well now.

好的，沒問題，杜爾蓋什。抱歉剛才斷線了，各位。希望現在大家都能聽清楚了。

Yes, so we had a solid year-end on the credit metrics. So our thresholds are at 20% FFO to debt, and we were roughly at 22% approximately. We do keep at least a very strong cushion. That's very healthy. And going forward, that ratio is actually improving in our plan. So for the end of 2024, I would expect it to be at least 22%, if not a little bit higher than that.

是的，我們的信貸指標在年末表現穩健。我們的FFO與負債比率門檻設定為20%，而實際比率約為22%。我們至少保持了相當充足的緩衝空間，這非常健康。展望未來，我們的計劃也將進一步改善這一比率。因此，我預計到2024年底，該比率至少會達到22%，甚至可能略高於此。

So the leverage of the company overall -- we do get a lot of questions about it, but it is important to keep in mind we have the recourse, nonrecourse structure. And particularly in the nonrecourse debt, this is amortizing debt. I think not everyone is doing it that way. And so our project debt is really amortizing and it's served by the cash flows from the projects.

所以，關於公司的整體槓桿率——我們經常被問到這個問題，但重要的是要記住，我們採用的是有追索權和無追索權相結合的債務結構。尤其是在無追索權債務方面，我們採用的是攤提式債務。我認為並非所有公司都採用這種方式。因此，我們的專案債務實際上是在攤銷，並且由專案產生的現金流來償還。

The parent debt level is actually going to be -- it will come up a little bit over the planned period, but not a lot. So it's $4.5 billion now. And as I said in my comments on the slides, maybe another 1 to 1.5 over the 4-year period, but it's going to be pretty stable.

母公司債務水平實際上會——在計劃期內略有上升，但不會太多。目前是45億美元。正如我在幻燈片評論中所說，未來四年可能還會增加10億到15億美元，但總體來說會相當穩定。

Our next question comes from Agnieszka Storozynski with Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Agnieszka Storozynski。

So I was just wondering, are you guys seeing any degradation in either EBITDA or cash flow generation of existing assets? I mean, we're seeing examples of -- especially on the wind side -- that wind assets are having some issues with both OpEx and CapEx, hence repowering. But just wondering if there's obviously this positive momentum on the new build side, but is there any offset from existing assets?

所以我想問一下，你們是否觀察到現有資產的 EBITDA 或現金流出現任何下滑？我的意思是，我們看到一些例子——尤其是在風電方面——風電資產在營運支出和資本支出方面都遇到了一些問題，因此需要進行改造升級。我想知道，雖然在新建專案方面明顯存在正面勢頭，但現有資產是否會對此產生抵銷作用？

No, none whatsoever. In fact, as I said, we continue to operate better. And we are seeing that our older projects are giving the returns that we are actually giving better returns than we had forecast. So we're not seeing that. I mean, we don't have perhaps that many older wins. We do have awful low gap, but we have not seen any degradation in performance.

不，完全沒有。事實上，正如我所說，我們的營運狀況持續改善。而且我們發現，我們之前的專案帶來的回報實際上比預期還要好。所以我們沒有看到任何下滑的跡象。我的意思是，我們可能沒有那麼多舊項目，而且我們的項目數量確實不多，但我們沒有看到任何業績下滑的情況。

Okay. And then the second question. So I remember in the past, you were mentioning that the slightly delayed coal plant retirements could be a lever for actually both earnings and cash flow. So is there an update there?

好的。那麼第二個問題。我記得您之前提到過，延後燃煤電廠退役或許能有效提升獲利和現金流。請問這方面有什麼最新進展嗎？

Yes. So Agnie, as I was mentioning, the -- so there's just a handful of assets that we've extended through 2027, primarily due to the short remaining duration of the contracts, and it's making both operational sense as well as financial sense for us to remain the owner through the end of life.

是的。正如我剛才提到的，Agnie，我們只將少數幾項資產的期限延長至 2027 年，主要是因為合約剩餘期限較短，從營運和財務角度來看，讓我們繼續持有這些資產直至其報廢都是合理的。

So there is some upside to that -- 2 upsides really. It smooths out the $750 million of EBITDA reduction from the coal exit plans throughout the '25, '26, '27, '28 period, so there's no real cliff. And then it does add to the EBITDA over the time frame. But it's one of the -- it's the smaller driver. The biggest driver of the EBITDA uplift is the higher returns we're realizing on the renewable projects, given the market dynamics that Andres discussed as well as the productivity and scale benefits we've realized in the portfolio and expect to continue to realize as we scale up.

所以這其中也有一些好處──其實是兩個好處。首先，它可以將煤炭退出計畫帶來的7.5億美元EBITDA減少額平滑地分攤到2025、2026、2027和2028年期間，避免明顯的斷崖式下跌。其次，它確實會在這段時期增加EBITDA。但這只是其中一個較小的驅動因素。 EBITDA成長的最大驅動因素是我們在再生能源專案上實現的更高回報，這得益於安德烈斯提到的市場動態，以及我們在投資組合中已經實現的生產力和規模效益，並且我們預計隨著規模的擴大，這些效益還將繼續實現。

Yes. And I'd like to add that we still plan to be out of coal by the end of 2027, and that we -- after 2025, we'll have somewhere about 1 gigawatt plant. And part of this is driven by the fact that these plants are still needed for stability of the system, so we are not allowed to shut them down in part. I just wanted to clarify. So the strategic objective remains the same, it's just slightly delayed in time.

是的。我還想補充一點，我們仍然計劃在2027年底前停止使用煤炭，並且在2025年後，我們將擁有大約1吉瓦的發電廠。部分原因是這些電廠對於系統的穩定性仍然至關重要，因此我們不能部分關閉它們。我只是想澄清一下。所以，戰略目標保持不變，只是時間上略有延遲。

Okay. And then lastly, and again, it's a bigger picture question, right? We -- it's very topical for today, given a lot of discussion about nuclear power. So we're all getting excited about the colocation of data centers and nuclear plants, and there is argument about spatial limitations for renewable power, given how much land it actually needs to offer similar amounts of computing capacity and especially in Virginia, where those land shortages, I think are most pronounced. So do you actually see that there is some disadvantage to your pursuit of tech clients, if that's nuclear angle were to take off?

好的。最後，這又是一個更宏觀的問題，對吧？鑑於目前關於核能的討論很多，這個問題在今天非常熱門。我們都對資料中心和核電廠的共址感到興奮，但同時也有人質疑再生能源的空間限制，因為要提供類似的運算能力，它實際上需要大量的土地，尤其是在維吉尼亞州，我認為那裡的土地短缺問題最為突出。那麼，如果核能發展成為一種趨勢，您是否認為這會對您拓展科技客戶造成一些不利影響？

Well, I think, look, a rising tide lifts all boats. So I don't think this is a situation where there's just going to be like one technology that solves all the needs. So I don't see that any future where there's not, quite frankly, a shortage of renewable projects in the key markets.

嗯，我覺得，水漲船高，所有船隻都會受益。所以我不認為會出現一種技術就能解決所有需求的情況。坦白說，我認為未來在主要市場，再生能源專案短缺的問題仍然存在。

You know, I know it takes a long time to permit nuclear plants. To my knowledge, excuse me, no new nuclear plants have been built, maybe even in the last decade, anywhere near budget. So on the one hand, I do think nuclear is part of the long-run solution, because I do agree. There's only so much land, so much interconnection. On the other hand, I think that the nuclear renaissance has yet to prove itself and it has yet to build out.

我知道，核電廠的審核流程非常漫長。據我所知（恕我直言），在過去十年裡，甚至可能沒有一座新建核電廠的預算能夠完全達標。所以一方面，我確實認為核能是長遠解決方案的一部分，因為我同意這一點。土地資源有限，電網互聯也有限。另一方面，我認為核能的復興尚未得到充分驗證，也尚未真正發展。

So the demand from these clients is so strong. I mean, they are taking second best. Sometimes they can't get -- they want to require additionality because they really want to be part of the solution to climate change. Well, there are circumstances where they will take no additionality and basically have recontract nuclear power today, at least 0 carbon. But the truth is that squeezing the balloon. That's taking 0 carbon energy off the grid.

所以這些客戶的需求非常強勁。我的意思是，他們只能接受次優方案。有時候他們無法獲得——他們希望增加能源供應，因為他們真的想成為應對氣候變遷解決方案的一部分。當然，也有一些情況下，他們不會接受任何額外能源供應，基本上就是今天重新簽訂核電合同，至少是零碳排放的。但事實是，這就像是在擠壓氣球，實際上是從電網中移除零碳排放的能源。

So I don't think -- I'll put it this way, I feel it's extraordinarily unlikely that the growth in renewables will stop and be replaced with nuclear power. And it's certainly in the next 5 years, I don't see it, and I see it very difficult in the next 10 years.

所以，我認為——這麼說吧，我覺得再生能源的成長不太可能停止並被核能取代。至少在未來五年內，我看不到這種情況發生，我認為在未來十年內也很難發生。

(Operator Instructions) We now turn to Ryan Levine with Citi.

（操作員指示）現在我們連線花旗銀行的瑞安·萊文。

Given the scarcity of data center projects, how are returns for these projects compared to the projects for other customers?

鑑於資料中心專案稀缺，這些專案的回報與其他客戶的專案相比如何？

The scarcity -- look, we don't talk about individual projects, but we do talk about our averages. And so the return on the project will depend, obviously, if you have the suitable location, if it's providing something other than a plain vanilla. So all put together, what I can say is, again, on average, we're seeing an increase in our returns, looking backwards and looking forward, and corporate customers are our most important segment. But yes, we will not comment on sort of specific client areas.

稀缺性－你看，我們不談個別項目，但我們會談平均水準。所以，專案的回報顯然取決於地點是否合適，以及它是否能提供一些與眾不同的東西。總而言之，我可以再次強調的是，平均而言，無論回顧過去或展望未來，我們都看到報酬率正在成長，而企業客戶是我們最重要的客戶群。但是，我們不會就具體的客戶領域發表評論。

Okay. And then how did you arrive at the 2% to 3% long-term dividend growth is the right growth rate from a financial policy standpoint? And what are factors that could cause that policy to continue to evolve?

好的。那麼，從財務政策的角度來看，您是如何得出2%到3%的長期股利成長率是適當的結論的？又有哪些因素可能導致這項政策持續演變？

Ryan. So look, I mean AES has established itself as a dividend payer a long time ago. We've been consistently growing the dividend at that [4 to 6] range for quite a long time. Obviously, the company's success in the renewable space and now our utilities position for significant growth, has put us in front of a huge amount of growth opportunity, and we want to manage our capital sources appropriately. And so we are committed to our dividend. We want to continue to grow, but we felt on balance given the capital opportunities in front of us and the higher returns that growing the dividend at a little bit of a lower rate made sense at this point, particularly as we've seen higher returns coming from our growth investments.

瑞恩：你看，AES很久以前就確立了其派息公司的地位。我們長期以來一直將股利維持在4%到6%的區間。顯然，公司在再生能源領域的成功，以及我們公用事業業務的顯著成長，為我們帶來了巨大的成長機會，我們希望合理管理我們的資本來源。因此，我們致力於派息。我們希望繼續成長，但考慮到我們面前的資本機會和更高的回報，我們認為目前適當降低股息成長速度是合理的，尤其是在我們已經看到成長投資帶來更高回報的情況下。

Okay. And why start that in '25 as opposed to another year from a timing standpoint?

好的。從時間安排的角度來看，為什麼選擇在2025年開始，而不是其他年份？

Well, we look at this -- so I'm not sure that you were pointing out, so we did grow at 4% this year. This is a policy that we take very seriously and thoughtfully. And so we weren't prepared -- we made that decision for this year, towards the end of last year. We weren't prepared to make this decision until we had thoroughly analyzed it and recently made that decision as we locked down our final plan here. And we think, therefore, it makes sense once we've made the decision to go ahead and implement it as soon as we're able, which will be in 2025.

嗯，我們仔細考慮了一下——我不確定您剛才指的是什麼，但我們今年的成長率為4%。我們非常重視並認真考慮這項政策。因此，我們並沒有提前做好準備——我們是在去年年底才做出今年的這項決定的。在徹底分析之前，我們並沒有做好充分的準備，直到最近才最終敲定了我們的最終計劃。因此，我們認為，一旦我們做出決定，就應該盡快實施，也就是在2025年。

Our final question today comes from Gregg Orrill with UBS.

今天最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的格雷格·奧裡爾。

Congratulations. Just a detail-oriented question. The '24 tax credit guidance of $1 billion. Is there anything in there that is timing related or you might describe as more onetime in nature? Or is that -- would you grow that from that level as you add renewables projects?

恭喜！我有細節的問題。關於2024年10億美元的稅收抵免指導方針，其中是否有任何與時間表相關的條款，或者您認為這屬於一次性項目？或者，隨著再生能源專案的增加，您是否會在此基礎上提高抵免額度？

Yes. So it will grow. And it's not timing so much as it's just the success of the business. As Andres said, we doubled our construction last year. And keep in mind that not all of the credits are recognized in year 1, in tax equity structures. It's roughly 1/3 get recognized in the second year. So that's boosting the credit this year as well as all of the projects that will come online this year, the new projects on top of that.

是的，所以它會增長。這與其說是時機問題，不如說是業務成功與否的問題。正如安德烈斯所說，我們去年的建築量翻了一番。而且要記住，在稅收權益結構中，並非所有稅收抵免都能在第一年確認。大約三分之一會在第二年確認。因此，這不僅會提高今年的稅收抵免額，還會增加今年所有即將投入營運的項目，以及新增項目。

The other thing that's driving it is the transfer of credit does get recognized earlier, essentially almost all in the first year. And so there's a greater mix of credits transferred in this vintage this year as we -- that grows as a component of how we monetize the credits. So that's driving it higher. But I don't expect this to have dipped, I think it will continue to rise as we head into the years ahead, as the growth program continues.

另一個推動因素是信貸轉移的確認時間提前了，基本上幾乎所有信貸都在第一年就得到了確認。因此，今年這一批次轉移的信貸種類更加豐富，這在我們信貸貨幣化方式中佔據了越來越重要的地位。所以，這推高了信用轉移率。但我預期信貸轉移率不會下降，我認為隨著成長計畫的持續推​​進，未來幾年信貸轉移率還會繼續上升。

And then keep in mind that we are benefiting from the energy community adder at a significant portion, which increases the credit. And our wind projects are all qualifying for domestic content also going forward. So that all else being equal, is driving the credit value up.

此外，請記住，我們很大一部分受益於能源社區補貼，這提高了我們的信用額度。而且，我們所有的風電項目未來都將符合國內含量要求。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這些因素都會推高信用額度。

And what's important for everyone to understand is the credit is cash and earnings. And the great thing about these -- particularly the investment credits, which is the lion's share of our mix of tax attributes is upfront. So you're getting a return on your capital investment of a significant portion, at least 30%, in some cases, up to 50% right away, which is a fantastic cash profile as well as an earnings profile.

大家需要明白的是，稅收抵免包括現金和收益。這些抵免的優點在於——尤其是投資抵免，它佔據了我們稅收優惠組合的絕大部分——而且是即時到達的。這意味著您可以立即獲得相當一部分資本投資回報，至少30%，在某些情況下甚至高達50%，這不僅能帶來豐厚的現金收益，還能帶來可觀的收益。

This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations, for final remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給投資人關係副總裁蘇珊哈考特，請她作最後總結發言。

We thank everybody for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you, and have a nice day.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，投資者關係團隊將隨時解答您可能提出的任何後續問題。謝謝，祝您愉快！

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。