Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 2024 Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2024 年第一季 Arch Capital 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。在公司開始更新之前，管理階層首先想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。

Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time.

因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向 SEC 提交的定期報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。此創建的港口。

Management will also make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K, furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

管理階層也會參考某些非公認會計準則財務績效指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標的 GAAP 調節表可在該公司昨天向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中找到，其中包含該公司的盈利新聞稿，並可在該公司網站 www.archgroup 上查閱。和SEC 網站www.sec.gov。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Marc Grandisson and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人馬克·格蘭迪森先生和弗朗索瓦·莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Arch's First Quarter Earnings Call. We are pleased to report a terrific start to the year. In the first quarter, we posted $736 million in underwriting income and a 5.2% increase in book value per share as we realized the benefits from several years of strong and profitable premium growth.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 Arch 第一季財報電話會議。我們很高興地報告今年的良好開局。第一季度，我們實現了 7.36 億美元的承保收入，每股帳面價值成長了 5.2%，因為我們意識到了幾年來強勁且獲利的保費成長帶來的好處。

Underwriters in our P&C units continued to lean into hard market conditions, writing $5.6 billion of gross premium in the quarter, a 26% increase from the same quarter last year. Overall, rate changes are exceeding loss trends, and absolute returns remain above our long-term targets, positive indicators in our continued efforts to deliver superior results to our shareholders.

我們財產與意外險部門的承保人繼續應對嚴峻的市場環境，本季毛保費為 56 億美元，比去年同期成長 26%。總體而言，利率變化超過了損失趨勢，絕對回報率仍然高於我們的長期目標，這是我們繼續努力為股東提供卓越績效的積極指標。

Broadly, we are seeing incremental signs of increased underwriting appetite in the market, but this is not surprising, given the favorable conditions that exist. It is still an underwriter's market where Arch can thrive.

總體而言，我們看到市場承保興趣增加的跡像不斷增加，但考慮到現有的有利條件，這並不奇怪。 Arch 能夠蓬勃發展的仍然是承銷商市場。

At the beginning of this hard market, as other providers pull back, Arch sought to establish itself as a key trading partner, aiming to solidify relationships and remain top of mind when it comes to addressing our clients' increased needs. Our success in establishing deeper client connections continues to pay dividends in this extended, yet increasingly competitive hard market.

在這個艱難的市場開始時，隨著其他供應商的退出，Arch 試圖將自己打造成一個重要的貿易夥伴，旨在鞏固關係，並在滿足客戶不斷增長的需求方面保持首要地位。我們在建立更深層的客戶聯繫方面所取得的成功，將繼續在這個廣闊但競爭日益激烈的硬市場中帶來紅利。

The first quarter served as a reminder of our risky world when an active catastrophe quarter concluded with a major industry loss, as the Dali cargo ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. Although we recognized a loss related to this event, the virtue of having multiple lines of business with improved and positive expected margins, made this event manageable for Arch.

第一季提醒了我們這個充滿風險的世界，當一個活躍的災難季度以重大行業損失結束時，達利貨船與巴爾的摩的弗朗西斯斯科特基大橋相撞。儘管我們承認與此事件相關的損失，但由於擁有多個業務線且預期利潤率有所提高且為正值，因此 Arch 可以管理此事件。

Incidents like this reinforce the importance of our core tenants. One, we practice disciplined underwriting that builds a meaningful margin of safety into our pricing. Two, we take a long-term view of risk and a conservative approach to reserving. And three, we operate a diversified global business that we believe maximizes our total return by mitigating volatility in any one line of business.

此類事件凸顯了我們核心租戶的重要性。第一，我們實行嚴格的承保，為我們的定價建立有意義的安全邊際。第二，我們以長遠的眼光看待風險，採取保守的準備態度。第三，我們經營多元化的全球業務，我們相信透過減輕任何一項業務的波動性，可以最大限度地提高我們的總回報。

Capital management has been a key differentiator for Arch and is integral to how we operate our company. Effective capital management requires that we allocate resources to the most profitable underwriting opportunities, while retaining the flexibility to invest in our platform when we find attractive opportunities.

資本管理一直是 Arch 的關鍵差異化因素，也是我們公司營運方式不可或缺的一部分。有效的資本管理要求我們將資源分配給最有利可圖的核保機會，同時在發現有吸引力的機會時保留對我們平台進行投資的靈活性。

One of those prospects came to fruition earlier this month, when we announced our intent to acquire Allianz's U.S. middle market and entertainment businesses. We see this as a unique opportunity to quickly build scale in the $100 billion-plus U.S. middle market, a long-term strategic area of underwriting interest for us. Increasing our middle market presence will further diversify our North American insurance platform by adding stable businesses with recurring premiums that can generate attractive returns over the cycle.

本月早些時候，當我們宣布有意收購安聯的美國中間市場和娛樂業務時，這些前景之一已經實現。我們認為這是在價值超過 1000 億美元的美國中間市場快速擴大規模的獨特機會，這是我們承保利益的長期策略領域。增加我們的中間市場影響力將透過增加穩定的業務來進一步實現我們的北美保險平台的多元化，這些業務的經常性保費可以在整個週期內產生有吸引力的回報。

As a cycle manager, we like having (inaudible), and this acquisition will significantly expand our opportunities in the middle market (inaudible) for years to come. I'll now share a few highlights from our segments. As you know, The Property and Casualty market cycle is evolving, but still offers attractive growth opportunities at good returns, particularly for our skilled specialty underwriters, who can use their expertise and experience to differentiate Arch.

身為週期經理，我們喜歡擁有（聽不清楚），這次收購將在未來幾年顯著擴大我們在中間市場（聽不清楚）的機會。現在我將分享我們部分的一些亮點。如您所知，財產和意外險市場週期正在不斷發展，但仍然提供有吸引力的成長機會和良好的回報，特別是對於我們熟練的專業承保人來說，他們可以利用他們的專業知識和經驗使Arch 脫穎而出。

The first quarter results from our Reinsurance segment were outstanding. Underwriting income for the segment was $379 million, while gross premium written grew by 41% over the same quarter last year. While there is some developing competition, we're observing an increased flight to quality and fully expect to capitalize on that trend as the cycle ages.

我們的再保險部門第一季業績非常出色。該部門的承保收入為 3.79 億美元，而毛保費比去年同期增加了 41%。儘管競爭不斷加劇，但我們觀察到人們對品質的追求增加，並完全期望隨著週期的延長而利用這一趨勢。

Our Reinsurance segment is in an enviable position. (inaudible) constructed over the last several years is strong and allows us to exercise our underwriting acumen. When opportunities emerge, whether from dislocation in the casualty market or by offering value that others cannot, Arch is there to provide solutions and financial strength to its clients.

我們的再保險部門處於令人羨慕的地位。 （聽不清楚）過去幾年的建設非常強大，使我們能夠鍛鍊我們的承保敏銳度。當機會出現時，無論是來自傷亡市場的混亂，還是透過提供其他公司無法提供的價值，Arch 都會為客戶提供解決方案和財務實力。

In our Insurance segment, growth tapered from the highs of the past few years as rate increases slowed and some of the dislocations were met by additional capacity. Overall, conditions remained strong and the market is behaving rationally, two important factors that continue to support growth and strong profit.

在我們的保險業務中，隨著費率成長放緩以及透過增加容量來解決一些混亂問題，成長從過去幾年的高點開始逐漸放緩。整體而言，情勢依然強勁，市場表現理性，這是持續支持成長和強勁利潤的兩個重要因素。

In the first quarter, we fund growth opportunities in several lines, including Property and Casualty E&S and other specialty lines. Across most of our specialty lines, pricing remains very healthy, and we are able to deploy capital in order to deliver attractive returns above our long-term target of 15%.

在第一季度，我們為多個產品線的成長機會提供資金，包括財產和意外 E&S 以及其他專業產品線。在我們的大多數專業產品線中，定價仍然非常健康，我們能夠部署資本，以提供高於 15% 長期目標的有吸引力的回報。

Like Reinsurance, our Insurance segment has made strong efforts to establish itself as a first-choice provider for its clients, and that manifests in seeing more opportunities. In life, you have to play to win, and in insurance, if you don't see the business, you can't write it.

與再保險一樣，我們的保險部門也做出了巨大努力，將自己打造成客戶的首選提供者，這體現在看到了更多機會。人生中，要打才能贏，保險中，見不到業務，就寫不出來。

And now let's pivot from P&C to Mortgage, which to borrow from a famous ad campaign just keeps on going and going and going. Our Mortgage segment continues to generate solid underwriting income and risk-adjusted returns from its high-quality portfolio. While Mortgage originations remain tempered by high mortgage interest rates, the persistency of our (inaudible) remains a healthy 83.6%, while the delinquency rate is near all-time lows.

現在讓我們從財產險轉向抵押貸款，借用一個著名的廣告活動來說，抵押貸款一直持續不斷地發展。我們的抵押貸款部門繼續從其高品質的投資組合中產生穩健的承保收入和風險調整回報。雖然抵押貸款發放仍受到高抵押貸款利率的影響，但我們的（聽不清楚）持續保持在 83.6% 的健康水平，而拖欠率接近歷史最低水平。

New insurance written is in line with our appetite given market conditions. When the mortgage market picks up again, we're prepared to increase our production. However, if the status quo persists, we're content with our current situation that has extended the duration over which we earn mortgage insurance premium.

鑑於市場狀況，新承保的保險符合我們的胃口。當抵押貸款市場再次回升時，我們準備增加產量。然而，如果現狀持續下去，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，因為這延長了我們賺取抵押貸款保險費的期限。

Competition within the MI industry remains disciplined, which means we are in a good place. Finally, our Investments portfolio grew to $35.9 billion, generating $327 million of net investment income in the quarter. The extraordinary premium growth from our P&C segments continues to increase our float, which provides a significant tailwind to our overall earnings through the next several quarters.

MI 產業內的競爭仍有紀律，這意味著我們處於有利地位。最後，我們的投資組合成長至 359 億美元，本季產生 3.27 億美元的淨投資收入。我們的財產和意外險業務的保費非凡增長繼續增加我們的流通量，這為我們未來幾季的整體收益提供了巨大的推動力。

In the U.S., the NFL conducted its annual draft this past weekend. Traditionally, the team that finished last season with the worst record gets the first pick, a chance to select the best college player, while the champions pick last. The player selected with the top picks are expected to be immediate difference makers, even though they are typically selected by a team with multiple deficiencies, making success far from guaranteed.

在美國，美國國家橄欖球聯盟 (NFL) 於上週末進行了年度選秀。傳統上，上賽季成績最差的球隊會獲得第一順位，有機會選出最好的大學球員，而冠軍球隊則是最後選擇。狀元秀被選中的球員預計將成為立竿見影的改變者，儘管他們通常是由一支存在多種缺陷的球隊選中的，這使得成功遠遠不能保證。

If you're a talented quarterback has nobody to throw the ball to, it can ruin the player's confidence, and the pressure can quickly sabotage a career. Compare this with teams drafting at the end of the round coming off successful seasons with talented rosters in place. They often have the luxury of selecting an excellent player who doesn't need to contribute right away. Instead, these teams select players who can fill a specific short-term role and be given time to grow into a difference maker.

如果你是一位才華橫溢的四分衛，但沒有人可以把球傳給你，這可能會破壞球員的信心，而壓力會很快破壞你的職業生涯。將此與在本輪結束時選秀的球隊進行比較，這些球隊在成功的賽季中擁有才華橫溢的陣容。他們通常可以奢侈地選擇一名不需要立即做出貢獻的優秀球員。相反，這些球隊會選擇能夠擔任特定短期角色並有時間成長為改變者的球員。

Our acquisition of the Allianz MidCorp business is like adding a solid player to a winning team. We already have established all-stars, a winning talent-dense culture in a favorable schedule in the years ahead. Adding the MidCorp team to our diversified franchise makes us better today and tomorrow, and that's a winning proposition.

我們收購 Allianz MidCorp 業務就像為一支獲勝的球隊增添了可靠的球員。我們已經在未來幾年的有利賽程中建立了全明星、人才密集的勝利文化。將 MidCorp 團隊添加到我們多元化的特許經營中將使我們的今天和明天變得更好，這是一個成功的主張。

I'll now turn it over to Francois to provide some more color on our financial results from the quarter, and then we'll return to take your questions. Francois?

現在我將把它交給弗朗索瓦，以提供有關本季度財務業績的更多信息，然後我們將回來回答您的問題。弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Marc, and good morning to all. As you will have seen, we started out 2024 on a very strong note, with after-tax operating income of $2.45 per share for the quarter for an annualized operating return on average common equity of 20.7%.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。如您所看到的，我們在 2024 年伊始表現強勁，該季度稅後營業收入為每股 2.45 美元，平均普通股年化營業回報率為 20.7%。

Book value per share was $49.36 as of March 31, up 5.2% for the quarter. Our excellent performance was again the result of outstanding results across our 3 business segments, highlighted by $736 million in underwriting income. We delivered exceptional net premium written growth across our Reinsurance segment, a 31% increase over the first quarter of 2023, driven by strong business flow in all our lines of business.

截至 3 月 31 日，每股帳面價值為 49.36 美元，本季成長 5.2%。我們的出色表現再次歸功於我們三個業務部門的出色業績，其中最突出的是 7.36 億美元的核保收入。在我們所有業務線強勁業務流的推動下，我們的再保險部門實現了出色的淨保費成長，比 2023 年第一季成長了 31%。

Growth was also solid for our Insurance segment, 12% after adjusting for the impact of a large nonrecurring transaction we underwrote in the first quarter last year in our warranty and lenders business unit.

我們的保險部門的成長也很穩健，在對去年第一季我們保固和貸方業務部門承保的大型非經常性交易的影響進行調整後，成長了 12%。

Overall, the combined ratio from the group came in at an excellent 78.8%. Our underwriting income reflected $126 million of favorable prior year development on a pretax basis or 3.7 points on the combined ratio across our 3 segments. We observed favorable development across many units, but primarily in short-tail lines in our Property and Casualty segments and in Mortgage due to strong (inaudible) activity.

總體而言，該集團的綜合成本率為 78.8%。我們的核保收入反映了上一年稅前 1.26 億美元的有利發展，即我們三個部門的綜合比率為 3.7 個百分點。我們觀察到許多部門都取得了良好的發展，但主要是由於強勁的（聽不清楚）活動，我們的財產和傷亡部門以及抵押貸款部門的短尾線。

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore last month, has the potential to become the largest insured marine event in history. Both our Insurance and Reinsurance segments were exposed to this disaster, and our current estimates represent an impact of 2.1 and 3.0 points, respectively, on the combined ratio in these segments results this quarter.

上個月巴爾的摩弗朗西斯斯科特基大橋的倒塌有可能成為歷史上最大的承保海上事件。我們的保險和再保險部門都受到了這場災難的影響，我們目前的估計對本季度這些部門的綜合成本率分別產生了 2.1 和 3.0 個百分點的影響。

We note that the losses for this event were reported as non-catastrophe losses in our ratios. Catastrophe loss activity was relatively subdued and below our expectations across our portfolio, with a series of smaller events generating current accident year catastrophe losses of $58 million for the group in the quarter.

我們注意到，該事件的損失在我們的比率中被報告為非災難損失。巨災損失活動相對較少，低於我們對整個投資組合的預期，一系列較小的事件在本季度為該集團帶來了 5800 萬美元的當前事故年巨災損失。

Overall, our underlying ex cat combined ratio remained excellent with the increase this quarter relative to the last few quarters, mostly due to the Baltimore Bridge collapse. Despite the impact of this event, our current quarter ex cat combined ratio still improved by 1.4 points from a year ago, as a result of earned rate changes above our loss trend in our P&C businesses and lower expense ratios mostly from the growth in our premium base.

總體而言，我們的基本前貓綜合成本率仍然非常出色，本季度相對於過去幾個季度有所增長，這主要是由於巴爾的摩大橋倒塌所致。儘管受到這一事件的影響，我們當前季度的除貓綜合成本率仍比一年前提高了1.4 個百分點，這是由於我們的財產與意外傷害業務的收益率變化高於我們的虧損趨勢，並且費用比率的降低主要來自於我們保費的成長根據。

These benefits were slightly offset by investments we continue to make in people, data and analytics and technology to improve the quality and resilience of our platform going forward. From a modeling perspective, I'd also like to remind everyone that our operating expense ratios are typically at their highest in the first quarter of the year due to seasonality and compensation expenses, including equity-based grants for retirement eligible employees that were made in March.

這些好處被我們繼續在人員、數據、分析和技術方面的投資所略微抵消，以提高我們平台未來的品質和彈性。從建模的角度來看，我還想提醒大家，由於季節性和補償費用，包括為符合退休條件的員工提供的股權補助，我們的營運費用率通常在今年第一季達到最高水準。

As of April 1, our peak zone natural cat PML for a single event, 1-in-250-year return level on a net basis remained basically flat from January 1, but declined relative to our capital to 9.0% of tangible shareholders' equity, well below our internal limits.

截至4月1日，我們的峰區自然貓PML單一事件、250年1年淨回報水準與1月1日基本持平，但相對於我們的資本下降至有形股東權益的9.0% ，遠低於我們的內部限制。

On the Investment front, we earned a combined $426 million pretax from net Investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method or $1.12 per share. Total return for the portfolio came in at 0.8% for the quarter, reflecting the unrealized losses on the company's fixed income securities, driven by higher interest rates.

在投資方面，我們從淨投資收入和採用權益法核算的基金收入（即每股 1.12 美元）中總共獲得了 4.26 億美元的稅前收入。該季度投資組合的總回報率為 0.8%，反映了利率上升導致公司固定收益證券的未實現損失。

Our growing Investment portfolio keeps providing meaningful tailwinds to our bottom line and remains of high quality and short duration. We have grown our investable asset base significantly over the last few years, primarily to significant cash flow from operations.

我們不斷增長的投資組合不斷為我們的利潤提供有意義的推動力，並保持高品質和短期限。在過去幾年中，我們的可投資資產基礎顯著成長，主要是來自營運的大量現金流。

This positive result, combined with new money rates near 5%, should support further growth in our Investment income for the foreseeable future. Income from operating affiliates was strong at $55 million. Of note, approximately $14 million of this quarter's income is attributable to the true-up of the deferred tax asset at our operating affiliate Somers in connection with the Bermuda corporate income tax, a nonrecurring item.

這一積極成果，加上接近 5% 的新貨幣利率，應該會在可預見的未來支持我們的投資收入進一步成長。來自營運附屬公司的收入高達 5500 萬美元，強勁。值得注意的是，本季營收中約 1,400 萬美元歸因於我們營運附屬公司 Somers 與百慕達企業所得稅（一項非經常性項目）相關的遞延稅資產的調整。

Our effective tax rate on pretax operating income was an expense of 8.5% for the 2024 1st quarter, slightly below our current expected range of 9% to 11% for the full year, mostly as a result of the timing of tax benefits related to equity-based compensation.

2024 年第一季度，我們的稅前營業收入有效稅率為 8.5%，略低於我們目前全年 9% 至 11% 的預期範圍，主要是由於與股權相關的稅收優惠的時間安排基於補償。

As regard to our announcement to acquire the U.S. MidCorp and Entertainment insurance businesses from Allianz, we are making progress in obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals and are targeting a third quarter close for the transaction. At a high level, the agreement is structured around 2 related contracts. A loss portfolio transfer of loss reserves for years 2016 to 2023 and a new business agreement for business written in 2024 and after.

關於我們宣布從安聯收購美國 MidCorp 和娛樂保險業務，我們正在獲得必要的監管批准方面取得進展，並計劃在第三季完成交易。總體而言，該協議是圍繞 2 份相關合約建構的。 2016 年至 2023 年損失準備金的損失組合轉移以及 2024 年及之後簽訂的新業務協議。

Overall, we expect to deploy approximately $1.4 billion in internal capital resources to support both contracts, in addition to the cash consideration of $450 million. The overall transaction is expected to be moderately accretive to earnings per share and return on equity, starting in 2025. It is important to note that even when reflecting the capital to be deployed for this transaction, our capital base remains strong with a leverage ratio in the mid-teen range. We maintain ample financial resources and remain committed in allocating our capital in the most optimal way for the long-term benefit of our shareholders.

總體而言，除了 4.5 億美元的現金代價外，我們預計還將部署約 14 億美元的內部資本資源來支援這兩項合約。從 2025 年開始，整個交易預計將適度增加每股收益和股本回報率。我們保持充足的財務資源，並致力於以最優化的方式配置我們的資本，以實現股東的長期利益。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

有了這些介紹性評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question is on the reinsurance market. Marc, I think in your opening comments, you mentioned something about potential dislocation in the casualty market. Are you starting to see casualty market, just opportunities emerge there? I know you've highlighted this, I think, starting in the third quarter of last year. Or is this something that you still think might take a couple of quarters to kind of fully present an opportunity to Arch?

我的第一個問題是關於再保險市場的。馬克，我認為在您的開場白中，您提到了傷亡市場潛在的混亂。您是否開始看到傷亡市場，那裡出現了機會？我知道您從去年第三季開始就強調了這一點。或者您仍然認為這可能需要幾個季度才能為 Arch 提供充分的機會？

Yes. The casualty market is going through, I wouldn't say repricing, but not reunderwriting as thorough because it has been already getting -- was hard, getting harder for the last several years. We may have some respite in terms of price increase middle of last year. But I think that the development of the prior year, as we all know, has created a little bit more uncertainties, and inflation is not ebbing.

是的。傷亡市場正在經歷，我不會說重新定價，但重新承保還沒有那麼徹底，因為它已經變得很困難，在過去幾年變得越來越困難。去年年中的價格上漲可能會有一些喘息的機會。但我認為，眾所周知，去年的發展帶來了更多的不確定性，通膨並沒有消退。

So right now, what we're seeing is people still being very, very careful and disciplined in how they underwrite the business, which leads Arch and gives us opportunity to lean into this even more so. We have grown our casualty book of business on the insurance side quite a bit. Our casualty book is E&S, as we all know, and very specialized in specialty. But sorry, I thought there was some technical difficulties here. Elyse, are you still there? I just want to make sure you can hear me.

所以現在，我們看到人們在核保業務方面仍然非常非常謹慎和自律，這導致了 Arch 並讓我們有機會更加深入地了解這一點。我們在保險方面的傷亡業務已經有了相當大的成長。眾所周知，我們的傷亡手冊是 E&S，並且非常專業。但抱歉，我認為這裡存在一些技術困難。愛麗絲，你還在嗎？我只是想確保你能聽到我的聲音。

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Okay. Thank you, you. Thank you, you're a trooper. So the casualty market on the insurance side, we're growing, but I think now we're having more opportunities to grow. I think that there's some kind of -- not repricing, but definitely a focus on that line of business on the Insurance side.

好的。謝謝你。謝謝你，你是軍人。因此，保險方面的傷亡市場我們正在成長，但我認為現在我們有更多的成長機會。我認為有某種——不是重新定價，但絕對是對保險方面業務線的關注。

On the Reinsurance side, I think we're starting to see some of the renewals that came through (inaudible) anecdotally it's creating a little bit more friction in terms of renewal of the casualty quota share, for instance. So what we expect right now is the early stages. We don't know how long it's going to last and where it's going to go, but there's clearly a psychological belief within the human system and the human interaction in the casualty that people need and know that we need to get more rate to make up for all the risks and potentially some of the misses that we had in the past.

在再保險方面，我認為我們開始看到一些續約（聽不清楚），例如，在傷亡配額份額的續約方面，它造成了更多的摩擦。所以我們現在期望的是早期階段。我們不知道它會持續多久以及它會去哪裡，但在人類系統和傷亡人員中的人際互動中顯然存在一種心理信念，人們需要並且知道我們需要獲得更多的費用來彌補應對我們過去遇到的所有風險和潛在的一些失誤。

And then you guys mentioned the middle market opportunity you saw with this Allianz deal. After this transaction, are there other things on the list like when you think about Insurance, Reinsurance, now middle market and Mortgage. Are there other things that you guys think that maybe down the road, you would need or want to potentially add to the platform?

然後你們提到了你們在安聯交易中看到的中間市場機會。這筆交易之後，清單上是否還有其他事情，例如當您考慮保險、再保險、現在的中間市場和抵押貸款時。你們是否認為將來可能需要或想要添加到平台中的其他東西？

Yes. We have a long list of things we'd like to acquire or have part of our arsenal. We talk about Allianz as an acquisition, and that's an important one and a significant one and a very good one for us. We're very pleased with that one. But what we also would want to tell our shareholders is, as you know, Elyse, we've also added teams along the way.

是的。我們有一長串我們想要獲得或擁有的東西的清單。我們將安聯視為一項收購，這對我們來說是一項重要且意義重大且非常好的收購。我們對此非常滿意。但我們也想告訴我們的股東的是，如你所知，Elyse，我們還在過程中增加了團隊。

So acquisition, a pure acquisition of a company is not the only thing that we're able to do. We've acquired some teams to do (inaudible) and everything in between. So we're always on the lookout. Again, as a cycle manager, Elyse, what you want is as many areas to deploy your capital, depending on the market conditions, creates a much more stable enterprise, much less volatility to the bottom line.

因此，收購，純粹收購一家公司並不是我們能做的唯一事情。我們已經收購了一些團隊來做（聽不清楚）以及介於兩者之間的一切。所以我們始終保持警惕。再說一遍，作為週期經理，Elyse，您想要的是根據市場條件在盡可能多的領域部署您的資本，從而創建一個更穩定的企業，從而減少利潤的波動。

And again, the more -- the market cycles are not monolithic, they are in multi phases and multi places. So we also have a little bit of an inside baseball. We -- our executive team is always -- almost every other month -- we have a list, a wish list that I will not share with you on this call, but it's a wish list of things that we know for a fact would be accretive and additive to our diversification of our portfolio, and we're always on the lookout for those. Mid market was on the list. And this is what -- so opportunities (inaudible) the willingness to do it, and this is where we are.

再說一次，市場週期並不是單一的，它們是多階段、多地點的。所以我們也有一點內部棒球。我們——我們的執行團隊總是——幾乎每隔一個月——我們都會有一個清單，一個願望清單，我不會在這次電話會議上與你們分享，但這是一個我們知道事實上會發生的事情的願望清單對我們投資組合的多元化具有增值作用，我們一直在尋找這些。中端市場也在名單上。這就是——所以機會（聽不清楚）願意這樣做，這就是我們所處的位置。

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan Securities, LLC.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券有限責任公司的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

Just a question on the Baltimore bridge loss that you reported in Insurance and Reinsurance. And I recognize your results were pretty strong overall. But the number seems fairly high that you reported relative to what some of your peers have talked about and also what the industry losses seem to be? So I'm just wondering, I'm assuming most of this is IBNR, but just wondering sort of -- is this because of how much conservatism there was baked into the number? Or maybe the market is underestimating what the losses from the event are eventually going to end up being?

只是關於您在《保險和再保險》中報告的巴爾的摩大橋損失的問題。我體認到你們的整體成績相當強。但相對於您的一些同行所談論的以及行業損失似乎是多少，您報告的數字似乎相當高？所以我只是想知道，我假設其中大部分是 IBNR，但只是想知道——這是因為這個數字中有多少保守主義成分嗎？或者市場可能低估了事件最終造成的損失？

Well, Jimmy, just at a high level, I'll let Francois talk about the reserving level. But we have been a participant in marine liability for quite a while. I used to underwrite the IGA in the Reinsurance group, way back in '02 or '03.

好吧，吉米，就高水平而言，我會讓弗朗索瓦談談保留水平。但我們參與海事責任已經有一段時間了。早在 02 年或 03 年，我就曾在再保險集團承保 IGA。

This is nothing new to us. We also acquired Barbican in 2019. So we have -- and we have a stronger presence than we ever had in the (inaudible) market, which, again, is another marine market positioning. So we do also, we do Insurance, Reinsurance and some retro actually. So it's nothing new to us. We like that business quite a bit, made money over the years. The rates and the returns were and are still acceptable.

這對我們來說並不新鮮。我們也在 2019 年收購了 Barbican。所以我們也做保險、再保險，實際上還有一些復古業務。所以這對我們來說並不新鮮。我們非常喜歡這項業務，多年來一直賺錢。利率和回報過去和現在仍然是可以接受的。

I mean but sometimes a loss occurs. I'm not sure about what the other ones are thinking about. But we definitely think that this is pretty much in line with what we would have expected the market share to be or what we think our presence in the marketplace would be.

我的意思是，但有時會發生損失。我不確定其他人在想什麼。但我們絕對認為這與我們預期的市場份額或我們在市場中的存在非常一致。

I'll let Francois talk about...

我會讓弗朗索瓦談談...

Yes. I mean again, we can't speculate or comment on how others may or may not be reserving for this event. For us, it's not unusual. And I'd say that we've taken a very conservative view of the loss and still a lot to be determined, obviously, in terms of who's going to end up paying for it.

是的。我再說一遍，我們無法推測或評論其他人可能會或可能不會預訂此活動。對我們來說，這並不罕見。我想說的是，我們對損失採取了非常保守的看法，顯然，在誰最終將為此付出代價方面，還有很多事情有待確定。

But -- and the last point you asked last question is, yes, for us right now, it's all IBNR, I mean we don't really have all the specifics to establish case reserves. So we booked it as IBNR and we'll see how things develop.

但是，你問的最後一個問題是，是的，現在對我們來說，這都是 IBNR，我的意思是我們並沒有真正掌握建立案件儲備的所有細節。所以我們將其註冊為 IBNR，我們將看看事情如何發展。

And then on casualty reserves, your overall development was favorable, but was there any pockets of unfavorable within the overall number? And then if you could talk specifically about how your casualty reserves trended for pre-COVID and post-COVID years?

那麼在傷亡儲備方面，你們的整體發展是有利的，但是總體數量中是否有一些不利的地方？那麼您是否可以具體談談您的傷亡儲備在新冠疫情之前和之後幾年的趨勢？

Well, part one of your question, there was really no material development on long-tail casualty lines of business across all years. So both pre-2015 to '19 years and '21 to '23. So we're very comfortable with that. I think our reserves are holding up nicely. And I know there's been some concerns around the more recent years where there's been some signs of adverse in the industry. We're not seeing that. Actually, our metrics or our actuaries are commenting that our actual development is coming in more favorable than expected.

嗯，你的問題的第一部分是，多年來長尾傷亡業務確實沒有實質發展。所以2015年之前到'19年以及'21到'23年。所以我們對此感到非常滿意。我認為我們的儲備狀況良好。我知道近年來該行業出現了一些不利跡象，引起了一些擔憂。我們沒有看到這一點。事實上，我們的指標或精算師評論說，我們的實際發展比預期更有利。

Again, very early to declare victory, but that's certainly for us a positive sign, and we'll keep monitoring and see how things develop for the rest of the year.

再次強調，很早就宣布勝利，但這對我們來說無疑是一個積極的信號，我們將繼續監控並了解今年剩餘時間的情況發展。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Kligerman。

Marc, you mentioned that the MI market is going and going and going. How do you think about the favorable prior year developments? I mean last year in the first quarter, it was 25 points this year. In the first quarter, it's another 25 points. I mean does that still continue going forward as well?

Marc，您提到 MI 市場正在不斷發展。您如何看待去年的有利發展？我是說去年第一季，今年是25分。首節又領先25分。我的意思是，這種情況還會繼續下去嗎？

Well, I don't have a crystal ball for the future. But we're -- like everybody else, we're just on the receiving end of a market that's curing better. The borrower is in good conditions. There are programs on the GSEs that help the borrower staying in their homes.

好吧，我沒有未來的水晶球。但我們——和其他人一樣，只是處於一個正在更好地固化的市場的接收端。借款人狀況良好。 GSE 上有一些計劃可以幫助借款人留在家裡。

Most of those that even would have a delinquency, as we speak, would have a much lower mortgage rate. So they have a lot of incentive to stay in the home and not having to do anything with it, plus there's a lot of equity being built up in the home. So people have -- are sitting on because, as you know, there's been a significant increase in property valuation over 3 to 4 years.

正如我們所說，大多數即使有拖欠的人的抵押貸款利率也會低得多。因此，他們有很大的動力留在家裡，而不必對它做任何事情，家裡還累積了大量的資產。所以人們一直在觀望，因為正如你所知，房地產估值在三到四年內大幅上漲。

So everything is really indicating that we have a lot of the alignment between starting from the borrower, all the way to the mortgage insurer and the mortgage origination of the mortgage companies to make sure that the borrowers can make the payment, you can refinance, delay or (inaudible) a lot of things, a lot of tools and toolbox that weren't there, frankly, in '07 and '08 when the crisis happened.

因此，一切都確實表明，我們從借款人開始，一直到抵押貸款保險公司和抵押貸款公司的抵押貸款發起之間有很多協調，以確保借款人可以付款，可以再融資，延遲或者（聽不清）坦白說，在07 年和08 年危機發生時，很多東西、很多工具和工具箱都不存在。

So -- but what does that mean in terms of development, we'll have to see what happens. But again, it's been more favorable than we would have said probably 2, 3 years ago, and we're just -- when we see the data, we just react to it.

所以——但這對發展意味著什麼，我們必須看看會發生什麼。但同樣，這比我們在兩三年前所說的要有利，而且我們只是——當我們看到數據時，我們只是對其做出反應。

Pretty amazing stuff. And then my follow-up question is around the Allianz acquisition. And I love your analogy about the NFL draft and picking the high-quality players. Some have criticized Allianz as maybe I'll say they weren't a first round draft choice. So with that, what will Arch be able to do to kind of turn them into a first round type player? I mean I know I've heard about data and analytics, but can that help overnight? So I'd like to know what you're going to do there to really enhance that operation?

非常神奇的東西。我的後續問題是圍繞安聯收購。我喜歡你關於 NFL 選秀和挑選高素質球員的類比。有些人批評安聯，也許我會說他們不是第一輪選秀。那麼，Arch 能做些什麼來將他們變成首輪類型的球員呢？我的意思是我知道我聽說過數據和分析，但這能一夜之間有所幫助嗎？所以我想知道你們將採取什麼措施來真正加強這項行動？

Well, there's a lot of things going on. There's a thorough and very complete plan by our unit to first integrate them, making part of our company and our culture. And we'll have to look at everything that we can do to help them out (inaudible) okay, it's okay business, very decent business, but we'll have to make it more of an Arch business, but recognizing some of the cultural differences in the distribution, it's a little bit of a different business. Data analytics is certainly one of them.

嗯，有很多事情正在發生。我們部門有一個徹底且非常完整的計劃，首先將它們整合起來，使其成為我們公司和文化的一部分。我們必須考慮我們能做的一切來幫助他們（聽不清楚）好吧，這沒關係，非常體面的生意，但我們必須讓它更像是一個拱門業務，但要認識到一些文化分佈上的差異，這是一個有點不同的業務。數據分析無疑是其中之一。

We also bring to bear. We believe Allianz is a big company and they did a lot of work on this, where we have a strong presence in the U.S. as well. We also already do some middle market business. So we already have experience in that space. And so we have a -- we have a couple of things, a couple of tricks up our sleeve, if you will, to make it better. I won't go into all the details, obviously, but I think we're pretty excited about what we can do with the asset.

我們也承擔。我們相信安聯是一家大公司，他們在這方面做了很多工作，我們在美國也有很強的影響力。我們也已經做了一些中間市場業務。所以我們在這個領域已經有經驗了。所以我們有一些東西，一些技巧，如果你願意的話，可以讓它變得更好。顯然，我不會詳細介紹所有細節，但我認為我們對可以利用該資產做的事情感到非常興奮。

And I think like I say all the time, and this is not a comparison with Allianz or us, but truthfully, it adds to the same thing to the Mortgage through UG, they're relatively a bigger piece of our overall enterprise and perhaps they would be in some other company. So that makes it a little bit more exciting and a bit more -- and the willingness from our part, obviously, to invest, right?

我認為就像我一直說的那樣，這不是與安聯或我們進行比較，但說實話，它通過 UG 為抵押貸款增加了同樣的東西，他們相對是我們整個企業的更大一部分，也許他們會在其他公司。因此，這讓它變得更令人興奮、更令人興奮——顯然，我們也願意投資，對嗎？

I'll remind everyone that some of the earnings that we make, we put aside to invest for the future. So we have a lot of things going on, and we're pretty excited.

我要提醒大家，我們賺來的一些收入，我們會留作未來投資。所以我們有很多事情正在發生，我們非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

On the Insurance segment, the underlying loss ratio of 57.5%. I know I'm probably just nitpicking. But I heard the commentary about the impact from the Baltimore bridge. But just curious, you've grown into property, which has a lower loss ratio, attritional loss ratio, I believe. So is there anything going on in the mix, that maybe you're putting in more conservatism on the casualty growth or anything we should be thinking about there?

在保險板塊，基本損失率為57.5%。我知道我可能只是在吹毛求疵。但我聽到了有關巴爾的摩大橋影響的評論。但只是好奇，你已經成長為房地產，我相信它的損失率、消耗損失率較低。那麼，這其中是否發生了一些事情，也許你們對傷亡人數的增長更加保守，或者我們應該考慮什麼？

Mike, I'd say it's just the nature of the business we're in. I think there's going to be some ebbs and flows. There are going to be some -- I wouldn't call them unusual or unexpected developments. There could be 1 or 2 claims that surfaced in the quarter. We booked them, we recognized adverse or bad news early on and see how things play out.

麥克，我想說這就是我們所處行業的本質。將會有一些——我不會稱它們為不尋常或意外的發展。本季可能會出現 1 或 2 項索賠。我們預訂了他們，我們很早就意識到了不利或壞消息，並看看事情如何發展。

So there's really nothing to say that we want -- that needs to be highlighted. It's really part of the course. And yes, absolutely, this quarter, it turns out that the ex GAAP kind of underlying loss ratio was up, I'd say, 30 bps. And that's just the reality of the world we're in, and we think it's still an excellent result.

因此，我們確實沒有什麼可說的——需要強調這一點。這確實是課程的一部分。是的，絕對的，本季度，事實證明，按照美國通用會計準則計算的基本損失率上升了，我想說，上升了 30 個基點。這就是我們所處世界的現實，我們認為這仍然是一個很好的結果。

Okay. Got it. Second question is probably a quick one, but you all are kind enough to give us guidance on the cat load in the last quarter. I think you said it was in the 6% to 7% range for -- I believe it's just the premiums ex Mortgage segment. Is that expected to change or maybe be towards the high end of that range on a base case scenario as you kind of continue to lean into the hard market conditions as we think about '24?

好的。知道了。第二個問題可能是一個很快的問題，但你們都很友善地為我們提供了有關上一季的貓負荷的指導。我想你說的是 6% 到 7% 的範圍——我相信這只是抵押貸款之外的保費。當我們考慮「24」時，您會繼續傾向於艱難的市場條件，因此在基本情況下，這種情況是否預計會發生變化，或者可能會接近該範圍的高端？

Well, the comment I made last quarter was -- yes, for the full year on the overall ACGL premium, 6% to 8%. We don't see that changing at this point. I think that was based on our view of how the year had a chance to play out. That's why we gave you a range.

嗯，我上個季度發表的評論是——是的，全年 ACGL 整體溢價為 6% 至 8%。目前我們認為這種情況不會改變。我認為這是基於我們對這一年如何發展的看法。這就是為什麼我們給你一個範圍。

We were very happy with the 1/1 renewals. 401s went pretty much as expected and 6/1 so far are holding up nicely. I mean still a little bit of time to go before that gets finalized. But big picture, again, that's the 6% to 8% range for the year in terms of cat load is holding up nicely.

我們對 1/1 的續約感到非常滿意。 401 的表現幾乎符合預期，並且 6/1 到目前為止表現良好。我的意思是，距離最終確定還有一點時間。但總體而言，今年貓負載量的 6% 至 8% 範圍保持得很好。

Sorry, is that 6% to 8% on all insurance premiums ex mortgage or just with total company...

抱歉，是所有保險費的 6% 到 8%（抵押貸款除外）還是僅包括整個公司的保險費？

Total company-wide, ACGL total.

全公司總計，ACGL 總計。

Our next question comes from the line of (inaudible) from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的（聽不清楚）。

My first question was on the net to gross ratio in reinsurance. I saw that it ticked down about 5 points year-over-year. I was wondering, is that a function of buying more reinsurance? Or is there anything else going on there?

我的第一個問題是再保險的淨額與毛額比率。我發現它比去年同期下降了大約5個百分點。我想知道，這是購買更多再保險的功能嗎？或者有其他事情發生嗎？

No. I think if you look at the -- it's a good question. If you look at the last 4 or 5 years in the first quarter, you'll see that our net to gross ratio hovers between 65% to 70%. Last quarter last year, it was 70% because we had a larger transaction that came through (inaudible). So it's really just a comparison that's not -- just 1 period comparison is not reflective of what's going on. If you look at the longer term, you look at the 65% to 70%, so nothing changed there.

不，我認為如果你看一下——這是一個很好的問題。如果你看看過去 4 或 5 年的第一季度，你會發現我們的淨毛比率徘徊在 65% 到 70% 之間。去年最後一個季度，該比例為 70%，因為我們完成了一筆較大的交易（聽不清楚）。所以這其實只是一個比較，而不是——僅僅一個時期的比較並不能反映正在發生的事情。如果你從長遠來看，你會看到 65% 到 70%，所以那裡沒有任何變化。

Okay. And then the next thing, shifting back to the insurance business, I was a bit surprised to see solid growth within Professional lines given the rate environment there. So can you maybe talk about the market dynamics or the opportunities that you're seeing in that? And is that growth coming from D&O? Or is that within other professional lines?

好的。接下來，回到保險業務，考慮到那裡的利率環境，我有點驚訝地看到專業產品線的穩健成長。那麼您能否談談市場動態或您在其中看到的機會？這種成長來自 D&O 嗎？或是在其他專業範圍內嗎？

Yes. So the -- it's -- the thing -- our professional liability has many things into it. It's got a large company, large public company D&O, it's got some smaller private, also has cyber in it and some professional liability like agents and stuff like this, that's more E&O based.

是的。因此，我們的專業責任涉及許多方面。它有一家大公司，大型上市公司D＆O，它有一些較小的私人公司，也有網絡，還有一些專業責任，例如代理商之類的東西，更多的是基於E＆O。

I think that the growth is largely attributed to the cyber. Our teams are leaning a little bit more into it, and we've also acquired a couple of more team or developing a team in Europe, there's a big need for what we realize as a need for cyber in Europe, and that's something that we're starting to grow and see more of.

我認為成長很大程度上歸功於網路。我們的團隊更傾向於這一點，我們也收購了更多團隊或在歐洲發展一個團隊，我們意識到歐洲對網路的需求很大，這就是我們所要做的開始成長並看到更多。

And the reason it's grown in cyber is because even though some of the rates, as we all heard, went down slightly, it's still a very, very favorable, we believe, very favorable proposition for us to underwrite. Also it helps us doing other lines of business because it creates value for our clients. It's still a little bit harder to get in terms of coverage.

它在網路領域成長的原因是，儘管我們都聽說，一些費率略有下降，但我們相信，這仍然是一個非常非常有利的提議，對我們承保來說非常有利。它也幫助我們開展其他業務，因為它為我們的客戶創造了價值。就覆蓋範圍而言，還是有點困難。

On the D&O, we would have decreases and increases depending on where the rates are or where we see the relative valuation or the profitability of our portfolio. On that note, the rates in D&O went down about 8% in this quarter, not as bad as it was 1.5 years ago. You heard the comments that (inaudible) there's still -- we believe there's still a lot of favorable opportunities in that segment as well. We just have to be a little bit more circumspect when we do this.

在 D&O 方面，我們會根據利率的位置或我們看到的相對估值或投資組合的盈利能力而減少和增加。值得注意的是，本季 D&O 的利率下降了約 8%，沒有 1.5 年前那麼糟糕。您聽到了這樣的評論：（聽不清楚）我們相信該領域仍有許多有利的機會。當我們這樣做時，我們必須更加謹慎一點。

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Marc, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're seeing increased underwriting appetite and developing competition, specifically within Reinsurance. Could you just talk about where you're seeing that, elaborate on that a little bit? And what specific lines you're seeing that in and how you guys are responding to that?

馬克，您在準備好的發言中提到，您看到承保胃口不斷增加，競爭不斷加劇，特別是在再保險領域。您能否談談您在哪裡看到的情況，並詳細說明一下？您在哪些具體台詞中看到了這一點以及您對此有何反應？

Yes. I think right now, what we're seeing is more a higher appetite, cyber is one of them. That's for sure, Insurance and Reinsurance, that would also -- I mean, can run the gamut, there are many of them. Typically, right now, what we are (inaudible) that are more short-tail in nature.

是的。我認為現在，我們看到的更多的是更高的胃口，網路就是其中之一。這是肯定的，保險和再保險，我的意思是，可以涵蓋所有領域，其中有很多。通常，現在我們（聽不清楚）本質上是短尾的。

You can see a little bit more willingness to take some more risk from the competition. And how we react to it is, we have many things we do. We typically will tend to first look at the overall (inaudible) if the rates go down or if the rates stay as is, with the new conditions, you actually price the business as if it's a new piece of business and what kind of return it will get to you. And if it's a little bit not as much -- or not too close for comfort, we might just decrease our participation.

你可以看到人們更願意在競爭中承擔更多風險。我們對此的反應是，我們做了很多事情。我們通常會傾向於首先查看整體（聽不清楚），如果費率下降，或者如果費率保持不變，在新的條件下，您實際上對業務進行定價，就好像它是一項新業務一樣，以及它的回報率是多少會找到你的。如果稍微沒有那麼多——或者不是太接近以至於不舒服，我們可能會減少我們的參與。

And we also might just stay on the clients that we believe have a better chance to really maneuver through that a little bit sideways market, if you will. It's really an underwriters' market at this time.

如果你願意的話，我們也可能會繼續關注那些我們認為有更好機會真正穿越橫向市場的客戶。現在確實是承銷商市場。

Got it. And just within Reinsurance, the underlying margins there were strong and even better, if I exclude the bridge loss. Can you talk about if there is anything in there that would flatter the results? Or is it more just sort of the earn-in of the property, more short-tail lines and these results are fairly sustainable? I guess how should I think about the sustainability of the results on the Reinsurance side?

知道了。就再保險領域而言，如果排除過橋損失，潛在利潤率就很高，甚至更好。您能談談其中是否有任何東西可以使結果更美嗎？或者它更只是一種財產收益，更多的短尾線路，而這些結果是相當可持續的？我想我應該如何考慮再保險方面業績的可持續性？

Yes. I mean it's a great market, right? And we've been saying that for a few quarters. I think and we've said it before, I think we encourage you all to look at results on a trailing 12-month basis. I think it's a bit more reliable, I think, less prone to volatility that is sometimes hard to predict.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很棒的市場，對吧？我們幾個季度以來一直這麼說。我認為，我們之前也說過，我們鼓勵大家去查看過去 12 個月的結果。我認為它更可靠一點，不太容易出現有時難以預測的波動。

But yes. I mean, we -- and Marc said it. I think the quality of the book that's in force right now is excellent, and we're going to earn that in. But whether how -- was this quarter a little bit better than maybe the long-term run rate? Maybe, we don't know. But again, as you try to look ahead, I'd say more of a trailing 12 month, again, view is probably a bit more reliable.

但是，是的。我的意思是，我們──馬克也這麼說過。我認為目前有效的這本書的質量非常好，我們將贏得這一點。也許，我們不知道。但同樣，當你嘗試展望未來時，我會說更多的是過去 12 個月的數據，同樣，觀點可能更可靠一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

On the other income which doesn't get enough attention, that's Somers and Coface. It was a weak quarter for Coface stock return in 4Q '23, yet the other was quite strong and maybe I'm misunderstanding how to model this, but I bring this up because Coface had an excellent quarter this past 1Q '24. And I'm wondering if that presages a very, very strong other income return for the company as we head into 2Q '24?

另一項沒有得到足夠關注的收入是薩默斯和科法斯。對於科法斯23 年第4 季的股票回報來說，這是一個疲軟的季度，但另一個季度卻相當強勁，也許我誤解瞭如何建模，但我提出這一點是因為科法斯在24年第1 季的季度表現非常出色。我想知道這是否預示著公司在進入 2024 年第二季時將獲得非常非常強勁的其他收入回報？

Yes. So just to be -- make sure we're on the same page, there's a lag, right? So Coface is booked on a one lag -- one quarter lag basis. So what they just reported for Q1 will show up in our Q2 numbers. Somers is on a real-time basis.

是的。所以只是要確保我們在同一頁上，有一個滯後，對嗎？因此，科法斯的預訂是基於一個滯後——四分之一滯後的基礎上的。因此，他們剛剛報告的第一季的數據將顯示在我們的第二季數據中。 Somers 是即時的。

And as we know, Somers should follow relatively closely the performance of our Reinsurance book because it's effectively (inaudible) there's some nuances to it. But big picture, that is booked on a real-time basis and should mirror fairly closely our Reinsurance book. But to your point, yes. I mean if Coface reported out a strong Q1, you should see the benefits of that to flow through in our second quarter.

正如我們所知，薩默斯應該相對密切地關注我們的再保險書籍的表現，因為它實際上（聽不清楚）存在一些細微差別。但總體而言，這是即時預訂的，應該與我們的再保險手冊相當接近。但就你的觀點而言，是的。我的意思是，如果科法斯報告第一季業績強勁，您應該會在第二季看到其帶來的好處。

In theory, there should be -- I guess, if you're saying some correlation between Reinsurance segment underwriting income and Somers, which appears in that other line?

從理論上講，我想，如果你說再保險部門的承保收入和薩默斯之間存在某種相關性，這會出現在另一行中？

Correct. Yes. It's not perfectly correlated because it's not the whole segment. It's mostly the Bermuda Reinsurance unit that we -- that they follow. Not the entire business, but big picture is still -- I mean, if the market conditions are good and Reinsurance, the Somers will benefit from that on a similar basis.

正確的。是的。它並不完全相關，因為它不是整個細分市場。他們關注的主要是我們的百慕達再保險部門。不是整個業務，但總體情況仍然是 - 我的意思是，如果市場狀況良好並且再保險，薩默斯將在類似的基礎上從中受益。

And if one other numbers question post the S&P Model, the change from a few months ago, is there any way to think smartly about how much excess capital you think you're sitting on or the possibility if you find other interesting M&A items, the ability to quickly deploy?

如果另一個數字對標準普爾模型（與幾個月前相比發生的變化）提出疑問，是否有任何方法可以明智地思考您認為自己擁有多少過剩資本，或者如果您發現其他有趣的併購項目，則有可能能夠快速部署嗎？

Yes. I mean that's always an evolving topic, right? I think we are always focused on putting the capital to work in the business where we can. I think we've done a fair amount of that, obviously, this quarter with the Reinsurance growth that we saw.

是的。我的意思是這始終是一個不斷發展的話題，對吧？我認為我們始終專注於盡可能將資本投入業務。我認為，顯然，本季我們已經做了相當多的工作，我們看到了再保險的成長。

The $1.8 billion that will support the Allianz transaction is another example. We will see how the year plays out. No question that, we're generating significant earnings so that goes to the bottom line. And we'll be patient with it until we can't really find other ways to deploy it. But for the time being, it's -- we're in a really good place in terms of capital and gives us a lot of flexibility.

支持安聯交易的 18 億美元是另一個例子。我們將看看這一年的進展如何。毫無疑問，我們正在創造可觀的收入，因此這可以達到淨利潤。我們將耐心等待，直到我們無法真正找到其他方法來部署它。但就目前而言，我們在資本方面處於一個非常好的位置，並給了我們很大的靈活性。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

A couple of quick numbers and one big-picture question for you all. The first one, just quickly, on the Allianz deal, is it possible to give us how much cash you're expecting to come in from the, I guess, (inaudible) net cash position you're expecting...

向大家提供幾個簡短的數字和一個宏觀問題。第一個，很快，關於安聯交易，是否有可能給我們多少現金，你期望從你期望的（聽不清楚）淨現金頭寸中獲得多少現金......

Yes, big picture, it's a $2 billion (inaudible) with dollar for dollar, right? So we get $2 billion in cash, and we were spending $450 million that goes out back to them for the cash consideration. So net-net, it's $1.5 billion of incremental cash that we will get.

是的，從大局來看，這相當於 20 億美元（聽不清楚），一美元換一美元，對吧？因此，我們獲得了 20 億美元現金，我們花了 4.5 億美元作為現金報酬回饋給他們。因此，我們將獲得 15 億美元的增量現金。

And the rest on the new business, then it's, call it, it's the premium flow with as we write that business, that's the overall -- over time, that will be the incremental investment income or invested assets that we will get.

其餘的關於新業務，那就是，當我們編寫該業務時，這是溢價流，這就是整體 - 隨著時間的推移，這將是我們將獲得的增量投資收入或投資資產。

That's helpful. Second quick question here. You referenced in your commentary higher contingent commissions on ceded business in your Reinsurance. What exactly is that?

這很有幫助。這裡是第二個快速問題。您在評論中提到，您的再保險分出業務的或有佣金較高。那到底是什麼？

A lot of it is third-party capital, right? We -- last year was a very light or a good year for the performance of that book. So some of those agreements, many of them actually pay us a commission that is -- there's a base and then there's a variable aspect to it, then that was kind of a lot -- a large part of that. So that's effectively performance-based commissions on property cat or property business.

很多都是第三方資本吧？我們——去年對於那本書的表現來說是非常輕鬆或良好的一年。因此，其中一些協議，其中許多實際上向我們支付了佣金——有一個基礎，然後有一個可變的方面，那麼這是很多——其中很大一部分。這實際上是針對房地產或房地產業務的基於績效的佣金。

Makes sense. And then one bigger-picture question here. I'm just curious, on your Reinsurance business, Obviously, during the first quarter, you're getting a lot of (inaudible) coming in from clients. What are you seeing with respect to reserve development at your clients, right? And how you kind of protect against that and not potentially seeing some of that adverse development that your clients are seeing on your cut of casualty quota share business?

說得通。然後是一個更大的問題。我只是對你們的再保險業務感到好奇，顯然，在第一季度，你們從客戶那裡得到了很多（聽不清楚）收入。您對客戶的儲備開發有何看法，對嗎？您如何防範這種情況，並避免您的客戶在您的傷亡配額份額業務削減中看到一些不利的發展？

Yes. So I think the -- Francois mentioned the actual is expected, which is sort of consistent in both insurance and reinsurance on the more recent policy or accident year, which having the right starting point means that you don't really have to correct frequently. So I would say that we're not surprised on the Reinsurance about what we see.

是的。所以我認為弗朗索瓦提到了實際的預期，這在最近的保單或事故年份的保險和再保險中是一致的，擁有正確的起點意味著你實際上不必經常糾正。所以我想說，我們對再保險的情況並不感到驚訝。

But as I said earlier, I think there is anecdotally and some heavy -- a lot of more friction, I would say, between Insurance and Reinsurance companies to make sure that people get an agreement as to what the ultimate book is going to be. So we're hearing this going in the marketplace.

但正如我之前所說，我認為保險和再保險公司之間存在一些軼事和一些嚴重的摩擦，以確保人們就最終的書內容達成一致。所以我們在市場上聽到了這種情況。

Of course, we participate in that, but we're not seeing this as being a big issue for us. And the other years that would have been pre-2020 and 2021, I want to remind everyone that we were very defensive. We do not have a whole lot of those premium and those harder-in-developing areas that people are talking about.

當然，我們參與其中，但我們並不認為這對我們來說是一個大問題。在 2020 年和 2021 年之前的其他年份，我想提醒大家，我們非常防守。我們並沒有很多人們談論的優質領域和難於開發的領域。

So I will say that we see opportunities to write more of those, and we expect to see more opportunities to write more of those types of deals this year, but I wouldn't say that we are the most present in those worst years, if you will.

因此，我想說，我們看到了撰寫更多此類交易的機會，我們預計今年會有更多機會撰寫更多此類交易，但我不會說我們是那些最糟糕的年份中出現次數最多的，如果你會。

Our next question comes from the line of Cave Montazeri from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Cave Montazeri。

I only have one question today on the Florida market. The total reform implemented over a year ago seems to have had some positive impact on the primary carriers, and Reinsurance capital seems to be coming back. This is a market that you guys know very well. Do you have any color you can share with us on the state of the market in Florida?

我今天只有一個關於佛羅裡達市場的問題。一年多前實施的全面改革似乎對主要保險公司產生了一些正面影響，再保險資本似乎正在回歸。這是一個你們非常了解的市場。關於佛羅裡達州的市場狀況，您有什麼顏色可以與我們分享嗎？

No, I think it's -- to your point, some of the adjustments are coming through, but inflation is also picking up. And there's also, as we all hear, there's potentially more activity in the Southeast of the U.S. in terms of activities and storms.

不，我認為，就你的觀點而言，一些調整正在完成，但通膨也在加劇。而且，正如我們都聽說的那樣，美國東南部的活動和風暴可能會更多。

So I think that people are trying to sort out what they will do at this point in time. I think we have already existing relationships that we think will get us a little bit ahead of the game in terms of participating and getting a participation in the marketplace. But bottom line is we expect the Florida market to be well priced and very good from a risk-adjusted basis.

所以我認為人們正在努力弄清楚他們此時會做什麼。我認為我們已經建立了現有的關係，我們認為這些關係將使我們在參與市場方面領先一步。但最重要的是，我們預計佛羅裡達市場定價合理，並且從風險調整後的基礎來看非常好。

Nothing indicates anything else other than that. Even, of course, the -- everything that's been done to take care (inaudible) and whatever else in between, I think, is helpful. But it's still the largest property cat exposure for everybody around the world. So even if you make some corrections and they have made some corrections, I think we still have a couple of years before we start thinking about having a heavy softening in the market.

除此之外沒有其他跡象。當然，即使是——我認為，為照顧所做的一切（聽不清楚）以及介於兩者之間的其他任何事情都是有幫助的。但這仍然是世界各地最大的房地產風險敞口。因此，即使你做了一些修正，他們也做了一些修正，我認為我們仍然有幾年的時間才能開始考慮市場​​的嚴重疲軟。

There might be some here and there, but we still believe the market will be healthy as a reinsurer.

可能到處都有一些，但我們仍然相信作為再保險公司的市場將是健康的。

Our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Quick question on M&A side. Obviously, you have historically generated very durable underwriting returns, mainly because of cycle management, in my view. Just curious as you move into M&A and diversify your business mix, does that impact your cycle management ability for retention levels when we think about M&A or potential M&A down the road?

關於併購方面的快速問題。顯然，在我看來，你們歷來都產生了非常持久的承保回報，這主要是因為週期管理。只是好奇，當您進入併購領域並實現業務組合多元化時，當我們考慮未來的併購或潛在併購時，這是否會影響您保留水平的周期管理能力？

No, it doesn't change. I mean cycle management is a core principle of ours. And if anything, we'd like to be able to do -- it's going to be a matter of degree perhaps. Some lines of business have more acute cycle management because they're probably more heavily commoditized. I would expect the cycle management to be much softer in the Allianz and the U.S. MidCorp business. And that's also what's attractive about it, right, because it creates more stability for the portfolio.

不，它沒有改變。我的意思是周期管理是我們的核心原則。如果有什麼的話，我們希望能夠做到——也許這只是一個程度的問題。某些業務線有更嚴格的周期管理，因為它們可能更商品化。我預計安聯和美國 MidCorp 業務的周期管理會軟得多。這也是它的吸引力所在，對吧，因為它為投資組合創造了更多的穩定性。

Got it. No, that's very helpful. And then in that case, when we think about M&A or future M&A, is it the first preference to use the excess capital or excess cash you're generating from this business to do the M&A deals? Or is it more preferable to use some of the stocks given where the valuation is and things of that nature?

知道了。不，這非常有幫助。那麼在這種情況下，當我們考慮併購或未來的併購時，是否首先會優先使用您從該業務中產生的多餘資本或多餘現金來進行併購交易？或者使用給出估值的一些股票以及類似性質的東西是否更可取？

I mean there's no one answer to that. I think there's always -- I mean, and we talk about M&A, but M&A doesn't happen that often. So there's a size that matters, how much could we need -- would we need to raise in terms of using our own stock?

我的意思是沒有人可以回答這個問題。我認為總是——我的意思是，我們談論併購，但併購並不經常發生。因此，規模很重要，我們需要多少——我們是否需要使用我們自己的股票來籌集資金？

Certainly, in terms of dilution, it's always, we think better to kind of use our cash. But there's many considerations we look at, trying to optimize as best we can all the options. We've got plenty of capacity in raising debt too, if need be. So it's very much a function of each specific circumstance, each specific opportunity. We look at it on its own and go from there.

當然，就稀釋而言，我們總是認為使用我們的現金更好。但我們會考慮很多因素，並盡力優化所有選項。如果需要的話，我們也有足夠的能力籌集債務。因此，這在很大程度上取決於每種特定情況、每種特定機會。我們單獨觀察它並從那裡出發。

Sorry, if I can just have a little bit of clarification on it. Is it fair to say that in that case, cash and debt is more preferable and then equity may be a little bit less or I'm (inaudible)? So sorry, just maybe a little bit clarification on that.

抱歉，我能稍微澄清一下嗎？公平地說，在這種情況下，現金和債務更可取，然後股權可能會少一點，或者我（聽不清楚）？很抱歉，請對此進行一點澄清。

I mean that's been the preference historically. But I mean, again, it's hard to speculate on what could be the next thing. So yes, historically, but things change over time, too.

我的意思是，這一直是歷史上的偏好。但我的意思是，很難推測下一步會發生什麼。所以，是的，從歷史上看，但事情也會隨著時間而改變。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Just a quick follow-up. You mentioned fee income earlier. Arch has a lot of diversified sources of income. Is there a way you can update us on kind of what percentage of your earnings maybe last year was derived from these kind of fee income type arrangements at a high level?

只是快速跟進。您之前提到了費用收入。 Arch有很多多元化的收入來源。您是否可以透過某種方式向我們提供最新信息，了解您去年的收入中有多少比例來自於此類高水平的費用收入類型安排？

I mean it's grown over the years, for sure. I think that the difficulty or the reality we face is some of these fees are somewhat -- with the expense -- the revenue we get that has some expenses that go with it, and those are kind of co-mingled with our own internal expenses.

我的意思是它多年來一直在增長，這是肯定的。我認為我們面臨的困難或現實是，其中一些費用在某種程度上——與支出——我們獲得的收入有一些隨之而來的費用，而這些費用與我們自己的內部費用混合在一起。

So isolating, call it, the margin on those contracts is a little bit kind of cloudy. But yes, it's grown. It's part of what we do. It's part of the leveraging our platform, leveraging our underwriting capabilities, in all our segments, right?

因此，孤立地講，這些合約的保證金有點模糊。但是，是的，它長大了。這是我們工作的一部分。這是在我們所有細分市場中利用我們的平台、利用我們的承保能力的一部分，對吧？

All 3 segments have some fee income that comes into the errors. Obviously, Somers is part of that as well. But yes, it's become a bit more sizable for us.

所有這三個部分都有一些費用收入會出現錯誤。顯然，薩默斯也是其中的一部分。但是，是的，它對我們來說變得更大了。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marc Grandisson for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在請馬克‧格蘭迪森先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you very much for hearing our earnings. Great start of the year. We look forward to seeing you all in July.

非常感謝您聽到我們的財報。今年的美好開始。我們期待在七月見到大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。