Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2023 Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度 Arch Capital 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層首先想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向 SEC 提交的定期報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。該公司希望電話會議中的前瞻性陳述受到安全機構的約束。由此創建的港口。

Management also will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website and on the SEC's website.

管理層還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務業績指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標的 GAAP 調節表可在該公司昨天向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中找到，其中包含該公司的盈利新聞稿，並可在該公司網站和 SEC 網站上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Marc Grandisson and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人馬克·格蘭迪森先生和弗朗索瓦·莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. We're more than halfway through 2023, and through our commitment to underwriting acumen, prudent reserving and cycle-focused capital allocation, we were able to deliver another quarter of profitable growth.

謝謝你，喬什。早上好，歡迎參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。 2023 年已過半，通過我們對承保敏銳度、審慎儲備和以周期為重點的資本配置的承諾，我們能夠再實現一個季度的盈利增長。

In the second quarter, our results were primarily driven by our willingness and ability to deploy capital into lines with superior risk-adjusted returns. Our operating results in the quarter were stellar with an annualized operating return on average common equity of 21.5% that drove a 4.8% increase in Arch's book value per common share for the quarter. As you know, book value per share growth is our primary focus on our road to creating long-term value for our shareholders. Each segment generated over $100 million of underwriting income in the quarter. These outstanding returns reflect our ability to effectively execute in each segment. We're really operating in our sweet spot.

第二季度，我們的業績主要取決於我們將資本配置到具有卓越風險調整回報的領域的意願和能力。我們本季度的運營業績非常出色，平均普通股年化運營回報率為 21.5%，推動本季度 Arch 每股普通股賬面價值增長 4.8%。如您所知，每股賬面價值增長是我們為股東創造長期價值的首要關注點。該季度每個部門都產生了超過 1 億美元的承保收入。這些出色的回報反映了我們在每個細分市場有效執行的能力。我們確實處於最佳狀態。

I also want to commend our employees for the continued exceptional growth they've delivered in the quarter, most notably a 32% increase in property and casualty net premium written compared to the same quarter a year ago. This hard P&C market is proving to be one of the longest we've experienced, and we are in an enviable position as we look to 2024 and beyond.

我還想讚揚我們的員工在本季度取得的持續卓越增長，最引人注目的是財產和傷亡淨保費與去年同期相比增長了 32%。事實證明，這個硬財產和意外傷害市場是我們經歷過的時間最長的市場之一，展望 2024 年及以後，我們處於令人羨慕的地位。

We often refer to the insurance clock developed by Paul Ingrey to help illustrate the insurance cycle. You can find the clock on the download tab for this webcast or on our corporate website. If you can't do the clock right now, just picture a traditional clock dial. For some time, we've been hovering at 11:00, which is one we expect most companies in the market to show good results as rate adequacy improves and loss trends stabilize.

我們經常參考保羅·英格里（Paul Ingrey）開發的保險時鐘來幫助說明保險週期。您可以在此網絡廣播的下載選項卡或我們的公司網站上找到時鐘。如果你現在不會做時鐘，就想像一個傳統的鐘盤。一段時間以來，我們一直在 11:00 徘徊，隨著利率充足性的改善和虧損趨勢的穩定，我們預計市場上大多數公司都會表現出良好的業績。

Last year, a popular topic on earnings calls was whether rate increases were slowing or whether rates were even decreasing. These are classic signs of the clock hitting 12 when returns are still very good, but conditions begin to soften. Yet here we are in mid-2023, and conditions in most markets remain at 11:00. We've even checked the batteries in the clock, and they're just fine. The clock isn't broken. It's just that the current environment dictates an extended period of rate hardening.

去年，財報電話會議上的一個熱門話題是利率上漲是否正在放緩，或者利率是否甚至在下降。這些都是時鐘敲到 12 點時的典型跡象，此時回報仍然非常好，但情況開始疲軟。然而現在已經是 2023 年中期，大多數市場的情況仍停留在 11:00。我們甚至檢查了時鐘中的電池，它們都很好。時鐘沒有壞。只是當前的環境決定了較長時期的利率硬化。

So what's sustaining this hard market? Well, I believe it's a relatively simple combination. Heightened uncertainty is driving an imbalance of supply and demand for insurance coverage. Since this hard market inception in 2019, we've had COVID, the war in Ukraine, increased cat activity and rising inflation, all of which create significant economic uncertainty. Underwriters have had to account for more unknowns.

那麼是什麼支撐著這個艱難的市場呢？嗯，我相信這是一個相對簡單的組合。不確定性加劇導致保險供需失衡。自 2019 年硬市場啟動以來，我們經歷了新冠疫情、烏克蘭戰爭、貓活動增加和通貨膨脹上升，所有這些都造成了巨大的經濟不確定性。承銷商不得不考慮更多的未知因素。

Beyond those macro factors, industry dynamics also play a role in sustaining the hard market. Generally, inadequate pricing and overly optimistic loss trend assumptions during the soft market years of 2016 through 2019 have led to inadequate returns for the industry. The impact of these factors should cause insurers to raise rate and purchase more reinsurance in a capacity-constrained market with limited new capital formation. Put it all together, and it may be a while before the clock strikes 12, and we begin to move beyond this hard market.

除了這些宏觀因素之外，行業動態也在維持硬市場方面發揮著作用。總體而言，2016年至2019年市場疲軟期間定價不足和過於樂觀的虧損趨勢假設導致該行業回報不足。這些因素的影響應該會導致保險公司在容量有限且新資本形成有限的市場中提高利率併購買更多的再保險。總而言之，時鐘敲響 12 點可能還需要一段時間，我們才能開始走出這個艱難的市場。

I'll now share a few highlights from our segments. First, P&C. In the second quarter, the reinsurance group was successful again at seizing growth opportunities. In particular, [the media] property and property cat renewals saw a significant improvement in rate adequacy, and our underwriters were ready, willing and able to provide valuable capacity to our clients. Our PML or exposure to a single event in a 1-in-250-year return period went up in the quarter, while our premium income grew substantially.

現在我將分享我們部分的一些亮點。首先是財險。第二季度，再保險集團再次成功抓住增長機會。特別是，[媒體]房地產和房地產巨災續約的費率充足性有了顯著改善，我們的承銷商已經準備好、願意並且能夠為我們的客戶提供寶貴的能力。我們的 PML（250 年一遇的單一事件風險敞口）在本季度有所上升，而我們的保費收入也大幅增長。

At July 1, our peak zone exposure rose to 10.5% of tangible equity. Overall exposure to property cat risk remained well within our threshold, and because of our diversified portfolio and broad set of opportunities, we retain the flexibility to pursue the most attractive returns across lines and geographies. Although there are lines where pricing has declined, large public D&O comes to mind. P&C markets continue to see rate changes above loss trends. Even with those few lines with weakening rates, the compounded rate increases over the past several years continue to be earned and are generating attractive returns.

7 月 1 日，我們的峰值區域敞口升至有形資產的 10.5%。總體而言，房地產巨災風險仍遠在我們的閾值之內，而且由於我們多元化的投資組合和廣泛的機會，我們保留了跨行業和跨地區追求最具吸引力回報的靈活性。儘管有些線路的定價有所下降，但我還是想到了大型公共 D&O。財產與意外險市場的利率變化繼續高於損失趨勢。即使少數幾條線路的費率有所下降，但過去幾年的複合費率增長仍在繼續，並產生了有吸引力的回報。

Overall, we like the range of opportunities in front of us, and we continue to lean into the current market.

總體而言，我們喜歡眼前的一系列機會，並且我們將繼續關注當前市場。

Next is mortgage, which keeps generating meaningful underwriting income and risk-adjusted returns. Housing and credit conditions remain favorable, although high mortgage interest rates tempered demand for mortgage originations and limit refinancing options. The lack of refinancing has led to a historically high persistency rate of 83%. High persistency stabilizes our insurance in force, which, as many of you know, drives mortgage insurance earnings.

其次是抵押貸款，它不斷產生有意義的承保收入和風險調整回報。儘管高抵押貸款利率抑制了抵押貸款發放的需求並限制了再融資選擇，但住房和信貸條件仍然有利。再融資的缺乏導致持續率達到83%的歷史高位。高度的持久性穩定了我們的保險，正如你們許多人所知，這推動了抵押貸款保險的收入。

Our disciplined underwriting process and risk-based pricing model have helped us to build a healthy risk-reward profile for the business we write. The composition of the overall book with high FICO scores and low loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios remains one of the best risk profiles in the industry.

我們嚴格的承保流程和基於風險的定價模型幫助我們為所承保的業務建立了健康的風險回報狀況。整體賬簿的構成具有較高的 FICO 評分以及較低的貸款價值比和債務收入比，仍然是業內最佳風險狀況之一。

International growth, along with our GSE credit risk transfer business, enabled us to profitably manage risk better than monoline U.S.-only companies, a key differentiator of our MI global platform. Mortgage insurance plays a valuable role in our diversified business model and continues to generate capital that is and can be deployed into the most attractive opportunities across the enterprise.

國際增長以及我們的 GSE 信用風險轉移業務使我們能夠比單一美國公司更好地管理風險並實現盈利，這是我們 MI 全球平台的一個關鍵差異化因素。抵押保險在我們多元化的業務模式中發揮著重要作用，並持續產生資本，這些資本可以部署到整個企業中最具吸引力的機會中。

Moving on to investments now. Since our second quarter call last year, the Federal Reserve has increased, as we all know, the rates 8x for a total of 375 basis points. Given our short duration portfolio, these hikes have positively affected our net investment income, which is up approximately 22% over the first quarter of '23. New money rates exceed our book yield, which, along with our strong cash flow, sets the stage for further growth and book value creation.

現在轉向投資。眾所周知，自去年第二季度電話會議以來，美聯儲已加息 8 倍，總計 375 個基點。鑑於我們的短期投資組合，這些上漲對我們的淨投資收入產生了積極影響，淨投資收入比 2023 年第一季度增長了約 22%。新貨幣利率超過了我們的賬面收益率，這與我們強勁的現金流一起為進一步增長和賬面價值創造奠定了基礎。

[I have] tennis on the brain after watching the incredible Wimbledon final a couple of weeks ago. It was an epic match-up, 20-year-old sensation Carlos Alcaraz taking on all-time great Novak Djokovic. It was a back-and-forth match that lasted nearly 5 hours before Alcaraz emerged victorious. There was one pivotal moment that will be remembered for years. In the third set, a single game, something that usually takes about 3 to 5 minutes, instead lasted 26 minutes. The game included 13 deuces and 7 break points. It was an incredible display of tenacity and athleticism. Not to mention the mental strength required to remain focused. It was insane.

幾週前觀看了令人難以置信的溫布爾登決賽后，[我]腦子裡就充滿了網球。這是一場史詩般的對決，20 歲的新星卡洛斯·阿爾卡拉茲 (Carlos Alcaraz) 對陣史上最偉大的諾瓦克·德約科維奇 (Novak Djokovic)。這是一場你來我往的比賽，持續了近5個小時，最終阿爾卡拉茲取得了勝利。有一個將被銘記多年的關鍵時刻。第三盤，原本需要3到5分鐘的單局比賽，卻持續了26分鐘。這場比賽共有13個平分和7個破發點。這是堅韌和運動能力的令人難以置信的表現。更不用說保持專注所需的精神力量了。這太瘋狂了。

But what really struck with me was that kind of like this hard market, the game simply refused to end. There were many times where a single winning shot would have ended the game, but it just kept going. About 15 minutes in, it became clear that we just needed to enjoy what we were watching and not focus on the end point. So that's what we're doing with this hard market, returning what the market serves us with gusto.

但真正讓我印象深刻的是，就像這個艱難的市場一樣，遊戲就是拒絕結束。很多時候，只要一擊制勝就可以結束比賽，但比賽卻繼續進行。大約 15 分鐘後，很明顯我們只需要享受我們正在觀看的內容，而不是關注終點。這就是我們在這個艱難的市場上所做的事情，回報市場熱情地為我們服務的東西。

As always, our goal remains to generate strong risk-adjusted returns in order to create long-term value for our shareholders at lower volatility. The exceptional profitable growth over the last several years has fortified our market presence and helped us achieve one of the most profitable quarters in our company's history. This is a type of well-rounded quarter we've always envisioned, the sweet spot, if you will, and we look forward to building on this momentum in upcoming quarters.

一如既往，我們的目標仍然是產生強勁的風險調整回報，以便以較低的波動性為股東創造長期價值。過去幾年的卓越利潤增長鞏固了我們的市場地位，並幫助我們實現了公司歷史上利潤最高的季度之一。這是我們一直設想的一個全面的季度，如果你願意的話，這是一個最佳點，我們期待在接下來的幾個季度中繼續保持這一勢頭。

I'll cede the court now to Francois, and then we'll return to answer your questions.

我現在將法庭讓給弗朗索瓦，然後我們再回來回答你的問題。

Thank you, Marc, and good morning to all. Thanks for joining us today on this gorgeous day in Bermuda. As Marc highlighted, our underwriting and investment teams delivered excellent results across their respective areas in the second quarter, which resulted in a performance that exceeded that from our very strong first quarter.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好。感謝您今天在百慕大這個美好的日子加入我們。正如馬克所強調的那樣，我們的承保和投資團隊在第二季度在各自領域取得了出色的業績，這使得我們的業績超過了我們非常強勁的第一季度。

For the quarter, we reported after-tax operating income of $1.92 per share for an annualized operating return on average common equity of 21.5%. Book value per share was $37.04 as of June 30, up 4.8% in the quarter and 13.5% on a year-to-date basis.

本季度，我們報告每股稅後營業收入為 1.92 美元，平均普通股年化營業回報率為 21.5%。截至 6 月 30 日，每股賬面價值為 37.04 美元，本季度增長 4.8%，較年初至今增長 13.5%。

Turning to the operating segments. Net premium written by our reinsurance segment grew by 47% over the same quarter last year, and this growth was observed in most lines of business. Growth was particularly strong in the property catastrophe and property other than catastrophe lines with net written premium being 205% and 53% higher, respectively, than the same quarter 1 year ago, a reflection of the fact that market conditions in these lines remain very attractive. As a result, the quarterly bottom line for the segment was excellent, with a combined ratio of 81.9%, producing an underwriting profit of $245 million. The accident year ex cat combined ratio was 77.4%.

轉向運營部門。我們的再保險部門的淨保費比去年同期增長了 47%，大多數業務領域都出現了這種增長。巨災財產保險和巨災以外的財產保險的增長尤其強勁，淨承保保費分別比一年前同一季度高出 205% 和 53%，反映出這些保險險種的市場狀況仍然非常有吸引力。結果，該部門的季度利潤非常出色，綜合成本率為 81.9%，承保利潤為 2.45 億美元。事故年除貓綜合成本率為77.4%。

The insurance segment also performed well, with second quarter net premium written growth of 18% over the same quarter 1 year ago and an accident quarter combined ratio excluding cat of 89.8%. Except for professional lines, which saw a slight decrease in net written premium in our public directors and officers business due to a more competitive market, all our underwriting units in insurance, both in the U.S. and internationally, saw good growth in the quarter as market conditions remain excellent.

保險業務也表現良好，第二季度淨保費較一年前同季度增長 18%，不包括巨災的事故季度綜合成本率為 89.8%。除了專業險種（由於市場競爭更加激烈，我們的公共董事和高管業務的淨承保保費略有下降）之外，我們在美國和國際上的所有保險承保單位在本季度都隨著市場的增長而出現了良好的增長條件依然優越。

Our mortgage segment had another excellent quarter with strong performance across all units, leading to a combined ratio of 15%. Net premiums earned were in line with the past few quarters, reflecting a high level of persistency in our insurance in force during the quarter at U.S. MI, partially offset by lower levels of terminations in Australia and higher levels of ceded premium. Benefitting our results was approximately $84 million in favorable prior year reserve development in the quarter, net of acquisition expenses, with over 75% of that amount coming from U.S. MI and the rest spread across our other underwriting units.

我們的抵押貸款部門又一個出色的季度，所有部門均表現強勁，綜合比率達到 15%。淨保費收入與過去幾個季度持平，反映出本季度美國 MI 有效保險的持續性較高，但部分被澳大利亞保險終止率較低和分出保費水平較高所抵消。扣除收購費用後，本季度上一年的有利準備金開發使我們的業績受益約 8400 萬美元，其中超過 75% 的金額來自美國 MI，其餘的則分佈在我們的其他承保部門。

[Current year] activity at U.S. MI was again very strong this quarter, and our delinquency rate stood at 1.61%, its lowest level since the onset of the COVID pandemic. At the end of the quarter, over 80% of our net reserves at U.S. MI are from post-COVID accident periods. Overall, our underwriting income reflected $116 million of favorable prior year development on a pretax basis or 3.9 points on the combined ratio and was observed across all 3 segments, mainly in short-tail lines.

[今年]美國 MI 本季度的活動再次非常強勁，我們的拖欠率為 1.61%，這是自新冠疫情大流行爆發以來的最低水平。截至本季度末，美國 MI 超過 80% 的淨儲備來自新冠疫情后的事故時期。總體而言，我們的承保收入反映了稅前 1.16 億美元的上年有利發展，即綜合成本率 3.9 個百分點，並且在所有 3 個細分市場（主要是短尾險種）中均得到觀察。

Current accident year catastrophe losses across the group were $119 million, over half of which are related to U.S. severe convective storms that have occurred so far this year. Pretax net investment income was $0.64 per share, up 21% from the first quarter of 2023 as our pretax investment income yield was almost up 50 basis points since last quarter. Total return for our investment portfolio was 0.56% on a U.S. dollar basis for the quarter with most of our strategies delivering positive returns. Our interest rate positioning with a slightly shorter duration helped minimize the impact of the increase in interest rates during the quarter.

當前事故年度整個集團的巨災損失為 1.19 億美元，其中一半以上與今年迄今發生的美國強對流風暴有關。稅前淨投資收益為每股 0.64 美元，較 2023 年第一季度增長 21%，因為我們的稅前投資收益收益率自上季度以來幾乎上漲了 50 個基點。本季度我們投資組合的總回報率（按美元計算）為 0.56%，我們的大多數策略都帶來了正回報。我們的利率定位期限稍短，有助於最大限度地減少本季度利率上升的影響。

We remain comfortable with our commercial real estate and bank exposure, which is of high quality and short duration. Net cash flow from operating activities was strong, in excess of $1.1 billion this quarter and continues to provide our investment team with additional resources to deploy into the higher interest rate environment. With new money rates in our fixed income portfolio still in the 4.5% to 5% range, we should see further improvement in our net investment income in the coming quarters, arising primarily from positive cash flows and the rollover of maturing lower-yielding assets.

我們對我們的商業房地產和銀行風險敞口仍然感到滿意，這些風險敞口質量高、期限短。經營活動產生的淨現金流量強勁，本季度超過 11 億美元，並繼續為我們的投資團隊提供額外資源，以部署到更高的利率環境中。由於我們固定收益投資組合中的新貨幣利率仍處於 4.5% 至 5% 的範圍內，我們應該會看到未來幾個季度的淨投資收益進一步改善，這主要歸功於正現金流和到期低收益資產的展期。

Turning to risk management. Our natural cat PML on a net basis of the single event 1-in-250-year return level stood at $1.46 billion as of July 1 or 10.5% of tangible shareholders' equity, again, well below our internal limits.

轉向風險管理。截至 7 月 1 日，我們的自然貓 PML 按單項 250 年 1 次回報水平的淨值計算，為 14.6 億美元，佔有形股東權益的 10.5%，再次遠低於我們的內部限額。

In light of the improved market conditions in the property market, we were able to deploy more capacity, which resulted in a significant premium growth for property lines in both our insurance and reinsurance segments. This growth was well diversified across multiple zones. Our view is that the current in-force portfolio with a broader spread of risk across many zones is well positioned to deliver attractive returns.

鑑於房地產市場狀況的改善，我們能夠部署更多的運力，從而導致我們的保險和再保險領域的財產險保費大幅增長。這種增長在多個地區實現了多元化。我們的觀點是，當前有效的投資組合在許多區域具有更廣泛的風險分佈，能夠很好地提供有吸引力的回報。

Our capital base remains very strong with $17.4 billion in capital and a debt plus preferred to capital ratio of 20.5%. Even though the results of the past quarter set the high-water mark for us on many fronts, we believe the continued hard work and dedication from our teams, serving the needs of our clients every single day, along with our steadfast commitment as disciplined and dynamic capital allocators, sets us up very well for future success.

我們的資本基礎仍然非常強勁，資本為 174 億美元，債務加優先股資本比率為 20.5%。儘管上個季度的業績在許多方面為我們設定了高水位線，但我們相信我們團隊的持續努力和奉獻精神，每天滿足客戶的需求，以及我們堅定的承諾，遵守紀律，動態的資本配置者為我們未來的成功奠定了良好的基礎。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

有了這些介紹性意見，我們現在準備回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, Marc, can you quantify the supply-demand imbalance that you're seeing within the reinsurance market? And how much of that do you think could transpire from an additional -- a pickup in demand potentially at 1/1/2024?

我的第一個問題，馬克，你能量化你在再保險市場中看到的供需失衡嗎？您認為其中有多少可能是由於 2024 年 1 月 1 日需求可能回升而帶來的？

Good questions. Elyse, I think the numbers we've seen for around $50 billion to $70 billion is not a crazy number. So I think that where we still have this imbalance occurring, I think that market has found a way to do the reinsurance transaction and buy coverage. But indeed, there was also a -- there could have been more to be had from a reinsurance perspective. But we believe and you heard on the call that insurance companies also had to -- (inaudible) had to evaluate what they can buy and how much they could afford based on what the pricing level was.

好問題。 Elyse，我認為我們所看到的大約 500 億至 700 億美元的數字並不是一個瘋狂的數字。因此，我認為，在我們仍然存在這種不平衡的情況下，我認為市場已經找到了一種進行再保險交易和購買保險的方法。但事實上，從再保險的角度來看，還可以有更多的東西。但我們相信，您在電話中聽到保險公司也必須——（聽不清）必鬚根據定價水平評估他們可以購買什麼以及可以負擔多少。

So I think there's just imbalance right there on the reinsurance. There's also, I believe -- we also believe there's imbalance in the terms and conditions in the overall broad industry that needs to a bit more of a function -- on one hand, you could create capacity for cat exposure through third-party capital or reinsurance protection. But at the same time, you could also do it through improving terms and condition on the insurance level. And I think that's also something that will help bridge the gap. And we believe that's going to be one of the key elements as well for the next 18 to 24 months.

所以我認為再保險方面存在不平衡。我相信，我們也認為整個行業的條款和條件存在不平衡，需要更多的功能，一方面，你可以通過第三方資本或第三方資本來創造巨額風險敞口的能力再保險保護。但同時，您也可以通過改善保險層面的條款和條件來做到這一點。我認為這也將有助於縮小差距。我們相信這也將成為未來 18 至 24 個月的關鍵要素之一。

And then the 77.4%, Francois, the accident year underlying combined ratio within reinsurance, is that a good run rate level? Or maybe you could get better as we think about some rate earning into the capital? Is there anything one-off in that number in the quarter?

然後 77.4%，弗朗索瓦，再保險內的事故年度基本綜合比率，這是一個良好的運行率水平嗎？或者當我們考慮將一些利率收入納入資本時，也許你會變得更好？本季度這個數字有什麼一次性的嗎？

Well, I wouldn't say there's anything one-off. It is certainly a very good quarter. I think our view -- as we said in the past, when we had some quarters where there's a little bit more activity, we think it's better to look at it on a 12-month kind of forward-looking view. So is this quarter going to repeat in the future? Maybe. We just don't know. But I'll say it's certainly good. There's room for further improvement. But again, recognizing that there's going to be volatility in the reinsurance segment from quarter-to-quarter, I'd say it's -- I'll let you make your pick from there.

好吧，我不會說有什麼是一次性的。這無疑是一個非常好的季度。我認為我們的觀點 - 正如我們過去所說，當我們在某些​​季度的活動有所增加時，我們認為最好以 12 個月的前瞻性觀點來看待它。那麼這個季度未來還會重演嗎？或許。我們只是不知道。但我會說這當然很好。還有進一步改進的空間。但同樣，認識到再保險領域每個季度都會出現波動，我想說的是——我會讓你從中做出選擇。

And then, Marc, one more for you. I mean your stock has done really well. So you have a good problem that any CEO would want in that you have an extremely valuable currency. We sit here with a hard market. You guys obviously have a lot of organic growth opportunities. What would you need to see from an M&A perspective to consider using your stock as currency to enter into any type of transaction?

然後，馬克，再給你一份。我的意思是你的股票表現非常好。因此，你有一個任何首席執行官都會想要的好問題，因為你擁有一種極其有價值的貨幣。我們坐在這裡，面對的是一個艱難的市場。你們顯然有很多有機增長機會。從併購的角度來看，您需要看到什麼才能考慮使用您的股票作為貨幣進行任何類型的交易？

Well, many things are needed. Obviously, you need (inaudible) is going to appreciate in this world. But I think at a high level at least, we're not focused on M&A at this point in time. We're really focusing on growing the book organically. We're also maintaining pretty well EMI as well as other nonproperty exposure. So we do -- we are seeing a lot of opportunities broadly. And this is where -- what our shareholders are paying us to do, and this is what we're doing.

嗯，需要很多東西。顯然，你需要（聽不清）在這個世界上會欣賞。但我認為至少在較高層面上，我們目前並不專注於併購。我們真正專注於有機地發展這本書。我們還保持了相當好的 EMI 以及其他非財產風險。所以我們確實看到了很多機會。這就是我們的股東付錢讓我們做的事情，這就是我們正在做的事情。

And this is -- this represents really a once in a little while opportunity to really deploy and really get access to the market in a bigger way and provide more capacity to our clients. And we don't want to miss that. I mean an M&A would have to strategically fit for us beyond the money. I think right now, our efforts and time is better focused on organic growth at this point in time. And this is where -- I think we have plenty of opportunities on our own.

這確實是一個偶爾出現的機會，可以真正部署並真正以更大的方式進入市場，並為我們的客戶提供更多的容量。我們不想錯過這一點。我的意思是，併購必須在戰略上適合我們，而不僅僅是金錢。我認為現在，我們的努力和時間更好地集中在有機增長上。這就是——我認為我們自己有很多機會。

Our next question comes from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

You mentioned that your 1-in-250 PML intangible equity was 10.5% at 7/1, which was up from 8.1% at 4/1. And I recognize your upper tolerance is 25%. It almost feels to me like you have a supplement below the 25%. Is it fair to assume that getting closer to 25% requires an even higher ROE hurdle rate or pricing? Like could we just be theoretical? What would you need to see in order to get more comfortable taking on more volatility in your book where you can get closer over time to that 25%?

您提到，您的 250 分之一的 PML 無形資產在 7/1 時為 10.5%，高於 4/1 時的 8.1%。我知道你的容忍度上限是 25%。我幾乎感覺你的補充劑低於 25%。假設接近 25% 需要更高的 ROE 門檻率或定價是否公平？就像我們可以只是理論上的嗎？您需要看到什麼才能更輕鬆地承受賬簿中更大的波動性，隨著時間的推移，您可以更接近 25%？

Well, I think the -- we're -- first, the one thing about the PML, which is so interesting to us, is that we're in the early innings of where it's going to go. So we have to be careful that when we talk about this even internally ourselves, these are the early innings of a market getting much better. And as I mentioned, terms and conditions, we believe, also improving and really helping to manage cat and the cat-related risk better as an industry. So we'll see how that develops over time, Tracy.

嗯，我認為——我們——首先，關於 PML 的一件事對我們來說非常有趣，那就是我們正處於其發展的早期階段。因此，我們必須小心，當我們甚至在內部談論這個問題時，這些都是市場變得更好的早期階段。正如我所提到的，我們相信，條款和條件也得到了改善，並真正有助於作為一個行業更好地管理貓和與貓相關的風險。所以我們會看看隨著時間的推移，情況會如何發展，特雷西。

I think that we're also a different animal than we were way back when. We have -- we've grown up our capital faster than the growth in exposure and needed. So the 25% before is probably a lesser number. I think you're quite right. And we also have to balance the overall portfolio risk profile. But having said all this, there's plenty of room to go from 10.5% to wherever we're going to end up. We don't know where that's going to be. Assuming conditions say as they are or even improve further, it certainly will mean more PML growth.

我認為我們與以前相比也是一種不同的動物。我們的資本增長速度快於風險敞口和需求的增長速度。所以之前的25%可能是一個較小的數字。我認為你說得很對。我們還必須平衡整體投資組合的風險狀況。但話雖如此，從 10.5% 到我們最終的目標還有很大的空間。我們不知道那會在哪裡。假設情況確實如此，甚至進一步改善，這肯定意味著 PML 會進一步增長。

I think that it would have to be substantially better. We actually have a very, very solid construct within our overall capital allocation that will dictate what kind of market share we would have of the market. And all I would say is there's always a place to go to the numbers you talk about, but we'll see if we get there. And I will also remind everyone that it's not a bad place to start. The rate-on-line index of one of the major brokers, as you all know, it shows us that the pricing for the cat is the highest it's ever been since 1990, even before Andrew. There's a lot of room, and we're excited to see where that takes us.

我認為它一定會更好。實際上，我們的整體資本配置中有一個非常非常堅實的結構，它將決定我們將在市場中擁有什麼樣的市場份額。我想說的是，總有一個地方可以達到你所說的數字，但我們會看看是否能到達那裡。我還要提醒大家，這不是一個糟糕的起點。眾所周知，主要經紀商之一的在線利率指數向我們表明，這隻貓的定價是自 1990 年以來的最高水平，甚至早於安德魯。這裡有很大的空間，我們很高興看到它會把我們帶到哪裡。

And one final thing I will say, Tracy, if you look back at the '05, '06, '07, '08, if you go back on this, if you have enough of a memory or a good document on retention policy or a bad one in your company, you'll see that our PML grew in '06, '07, '08, '09. So we kept on accumulating and growing the PML. So it's just a start.

我要說的最後一件事，特雷西，如果你回顧一下'05，'06，'07，'08，如果你回顧這一點，如果你有足夠的記憶或關於保留政策的良好文件或如果你的公司表現不佳，你會發現我們的 PML 在 06 年、07 年、08 年、09 年有所增長。所以我們不斷積累和發展 PML。所以這只是一個開始。

I'll add on that. Just going back to Marc's earlier point about supply and demand imbalance. Florida is obviously a big market. It was a big renewal in 6/1. And the reality is even if we wanted to deploy more capital, I think, or more capacity, I mean, the buyers or the [seating] companies just don't have the resources or the money to buy the coverage that we think they should be buying.

我會補充這一點。回到馬克之前關於供需失衡的觀點。佛羅里達顯然是一個大市場。這是 6 月 1 日的一次重大更新。現實是，即使我們想部署更多的資本，我認為，或者更多的容量，我的意思是，買家或[座位]公司只是沒有資源或金錢來購買我們認為他們應該購買的保險正在購買。

So there's a little bit of wait and see whether it will take -- it will be a full year before they reprice their product. And then it gives them more money potentially to spend on resource protection, which we -- again, assuming the pricing stays at the current levels, we would deploy more capital. But certainly, the demand is a big factor in our ability to grow PML.

因此，我們需要等待一段時間，看看他們是否會需要一整年的時間才能重新定價。然後，它給了他們更多的資金可能用於資源保護，我們再次假設定價保持在當前水平，我們將部署更多的資本。但可以肯定的是，需求是我們發展 PML 能力的一個重要因素。

Got it. I would say that if you do change your threshold, and I get it's very fluid and the demand equation is also different, that you would provide an update to the market on that. Real quick, do you have a house view on how this year's hurricane season will shape up? There was talk about average hurricane season, and now people are talking about above average. How do you see that playing out this year?

知道了。我想說，如果你確實改變了你的門檻，而且我發現它非常不穩定，需求方程也不同，你就會向市場提供最新的情況。很快，您對今年的颶風季節將如何形成有什麼看法嗎？以前人們談論的是平均颶風季節，現在人們談論的是高於平均水平。您認為今年的情況如何？

Well, we don't have a view on that view. What we have a view with since we have a mineralogist who evaluates the sea surface temperature, I'm sure everybody see those numbers, we expect average to maybe slightly above average the last time you gave us a presentation. But as you know, Tracy, it moves week to weeks, and we'll see when we get there. We're a little bit almost starting this season, so we'll see how that develops.

好吧，我們對這種觀點沒有看法。我們有一個觀點，因為我們有一位評估海面溫度的礦物學家，我相信每個人都看到這些數字，我們預計平均值可能會略高於您上次給我們演示時的平均值。但正如你所知，特雷西，它每週都會發生變化，我們會看到什麼時候到達那裡。我們這個賽季即將開始，所以我們將看看情況如何發展。

But we tend to take a longer-term view, Tracy, of the frequency and the severity of the hurricane season. So we believe that the pricing as it is right now accounts for a lot of deviation from the long-term expected that even if you had a little bit above average, I think that the market will be in a really, really good place. Not only us. I think the market is -- on the reinsurance side has priced the business with that long-term expected, which has, as we all know, a little bit of that increased frequency and severity of late. So that is reflected in the modeling that all companies are using.

但特雷西，我們傾向於以更長遠的眼光來看待颶風季節的頻率和嚴重程度。因此，我們認為，目前的定價與長期預期有很大偏差，即使你的價格略高於平均水平，我認為市場將處於一個非常非常好的位置。不僅僅是我們。我認為市場在再保險方面已經按照長期預期對業務進行了定價，眾所周知，最近的頻率和嚴重程度有所增加。這反映在所有公司正在使用的模型中。

Our next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

First, just a question on your comments on supply/demand. And besides the absolute price, obviously, terms and conditions have improved as well. And where we can see the data, it seems like most of the primary insurers are absorbing more of the first dollar loss. But obviously, we don't see the data from all of them. But how broad-based is this? And do you think there's sort of been a little bit of a transfer of risk, cat risk from the reinsurers to the primary companies given changes in terms and conditions?

首先，問一下您對供需的評論。除了絕對價格之外，顯然，條款和條件也有所改善。從數據來看，大多數主要保險公司似乎都在吸收更多的第一美元損失。但顯然，我們看不到所有這些數據。但這的基礎有多廣泛？您是否認為考慮到條款和條件的變化，風險、巨災風險從再保險公司轉移到了主要公司？

I think the last part is a true statement. I think the Q2 numbers you saw for some of the other -- some of our clients actually and competitors demonstrate that that's a little bit more retained. And these are the kind of question -- I mean if you get quite a coverage, you have to retain it yourself.

我認為最後一部分是真實的陳述。我認為你看到的其他一些公司的第二季度數據——我們的一些客戶和競爭對手實際上表明，這一點保留得更多。這些都是這樣的問題——我的意思是，如果你得到了相當多的報導，你就必須自己保留它。

The terms and conditions change. This is [what's fascinating] for this market. It is -- not only the property cat terms and condition change. It is very broad-based property terms and conditions and price improvement that is sought by a lot of companies. I think the market globally has the (inaudible) squarely. Like I said, last quarter (inaudible) having to mend and optimize and reshape and re-underwrite the portfolio.

條款和條件發生變化。這就是這個市場的[迷人之處]。這不僅僅是財產貓條款和條件的變化。許多公司都尋求非常廣泛的財產條款和條件以及價格改善。我認為全球市場已經（聽不清）了。就像我說的，上個季度（聽不清）必須修補、優化、重塑和重新承保投資組合。

And one of the key things that we see that evidence of that is that a facultative team in our E&S property have an increased amount of submission this first half of the year. And what's interesting, the E&S property on the insurance obviously has some kind of exposure, a fair amount of it, but it's not only that. Our facultative book of business is not necessarily -- it's actually not a cat-heavy portfolio, which is an indication that facultative typically in any market is a good indication for where the market psychology is.

我們看到的關鍵證據之一是，我們 E&S 物業的臨時團隊今年上半年提交的材料數量有所增加。有趣的是，保險上的 E&S 財產顯然有某種風險敞口，相當一部分，但不僅如此。我們的兼任商業手冊不一定是——它實際上不是一個以貓為主的投資組合，這表明任何市場中的兼任通常都能很好地表明市場心理的狀況。

So beyond the cat when they provide fire protection, the pricing and the conditions are improving there as well. It's in very much a broad base and in the early stages. And I will say and remind everyone, and we have to remind ourselves of this, that this is a second or third year that property rates in terms and conditions have improved. So it's not the first shot at it. It's an ongoing process. And I think that it just got -- we (inaudible) top of mind (inaudible) and certainly in the second quarter. This year we believe will help maintain a bit of that going forward.

因此，除了提供消防保護之外，價格和條件也在改善。它的基礎非常廣泛，而且還處於早期階段。我要提醒大家的是，我們必須提醒自己，這是房地產價格在條款和條件方面有所改善的第二年或第三年。所以這並不是第一次嘗試。這是一個持續的過程。我認為它剛剛成為我們（聽不清）的首要考慮因素（聽不清），當然是在第二季度。今年我們相信將有助於維持這一勢頭。

And then on the MI business, you've had obviously very sizable reserve releases over the past couple of years. How much of the forbearance-related reserves that you put up -- are those mostly released? Or is there more room to go there?

然後在 MI 業務上，過去幾年顯然釋放了相當大的儲備金。您投入的與寬容相關的準備金中有多少大部分已釋放？或者還有更多空間可以去那裡嗎？

I mean they're mostly gone. I think we've released a fair amount of the reserves that we put up in the early -- in 2020 effectively, during the early days of the pandemic. As I mentioned, like a lot of the cures that we're seeing now are from '21 and '22. So that's good news. And as you know, the reserve base has shrunk quite substantially from the peak of 2020 or late 2020.

我的意思是他們大部分都消失了。我認為我們已經釋放了我們在 2020 年年初、大流行初期建立的相當數量的儲備。正如我所提到的，我們現在看到的許多治療方法都來自 21 世紀和 22 世紀。這是個好消息。如您所知，儲備基數較 2020 年峰值或 2020 年底大幅縮水。

So we're still very prudent. We still look at the data every single month as the new delinquencies come in and how quickly we cure and all of that, but we're still very comfortable with our reserve position there.

所以我們還是非常謹慎的。隨著新的拖欠款的出現，我們仍然會每月查看數據以及我們解決問題的速度以及所有這些，但我們仍然對我們在那裡的儲備地位感到非常滿意。

And if I could just ask one more on -- in the past, when the market has been really good, we've seen some companies go out and raise equity, try to take advantage of that. And a couple of your peers have done that as well, obviously, not to a very large extent. But what do you think about your sort of desire to do that if the demand really picks up and your business continues to grow?

如果我能再問一個問題的話——在過去，當市場非常好的時候，我們看到一些公司出去籌集股本，試圖利用這一點。顯然，你的一些同行也這樣做了，但程度不高。但是，如果需求確實回升並且您的業務持續增長，您對這樣做的願望有何看法？

Well, it will be a function of the market. I mean it's -- we've been able to grow quite substantially in the last few years without raising any additional capital. As I've told many people over the last few months, we have the luxury of having a mortgage unit that provides a source of capital that we have been able to redeploy in the P&C space.

嗯，這將是市場的函數。我的意思是——在過去幾年裡，我們在沒有籌集任何額外資金的情況下就實現了相當大的增長。正如我過去幾個月告訴很多人的那樣，我們有幸擁有抵押貸款單位，它提供了我們能夠在財產險領域重新部署的資金來源。

So assuming similar conditions where P&C start stays very hard and mortgage still does very well but isn't growing substantially, we still think there'll be -- we'll be able to generate capital internally. But again, hard to have the crystal ball on what 2024 will look like. So we're -- as I mentioned, we got plenty of capacity. We have low leverage, so that we got a lot of tools in the toolbox, and we'll react to the market as it presents itself.

因此，假設類似的情況，財產和意外險的啟動仍然非常艱難，抵押貸款仍然表現良好，但沒有大幅增長，我們仍然認為我們將能夠在內部產生資本。但同樣，很難預測 2024 年會是什麼樣子。所以，正如我所提到的，我們有足夠的能力。我們的槓桿率很低，因此我們的工具箱裡有很多工具，我們會根據市場的情況做出反應。

Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Great. Maybe just wanted to learn more about market conditions in the primary insurance segment. I definitely heard your comments about rate change, loss trend and pieces of where overall we are in the underwriting life cycle clock. But just curious, we're seeing kind of different data points from companies on pricing power levels. Some are showing flattish pricing power. Some are showing deceleration. I know you guys operate in a lot of different pockets. But would you say overall pricing in the primary insurance segment is accelerating? Or maybe it's worth bifurcating between casualty versus property as well?

偉大的。也許只是想更多地了解初級保險領域的市場狀況。我確實聽到了您對費率變化、損失趨勢以及我們在承保生命週期時鐘中總體所處位置的評論。但好奇的是，我們看到各公司在定價能力水平上提供了不同的數據點。一些公司表現出平淡的定價能力。有些顯示出減速。我知道你們在很多不同的口袋裡運作。但您是否認為主要保險領域的整體定價正在加速？或者也許也值得在傷亡和財產之間進行區分？

Yes, you have to bifurcate the market, to your question. I think the overall statement, I will say is that from our perspective, we look at our portfolio, as you just mentioned, by all the specialty lines. And most of them are still getting rate increases that actually get a bit more pickup in rate increase over the last quarter or 2, which was a good thing to see and the right thing to see, obviously.

是的，對於你的問題，你必須將市場分成兩部分。我認為總體來說，我要說的是，從我們的角度來看，正如您剛才提到的，我們通過所有專業線來審視我們的投資組合。他們中的大多數人仍在加息，實際上比上一兩個季度的加息幅度更大，這顯然是一件好事，也是正確的事情。

But I think the workers' comp is a good example for rates not going up still, and there's a reason for it. It's been historically well performing, performing better than all the initial picks from all the folks out there. So I can see why there is some validity or at least reason behind that.

但我認為工人補償金是利率沒有繼續上漲的一個很好的例子，而且這是有原因的。從歷史上看，它的表現一直很好，比所有人最初選擇的表現都要好。所以我明白為什麼這背後有一定的有效性或至少是有原因的。

This is what I would tell you. The word we use for the insurance industry right now in the U.S. specifically is rationality. It's a very rational market. That's a reason for things to happen. The reason, for example, are economically based and not grow the market share or making it flash or marketing driven. Companies are really, really doing the best they can to underwrite the best and being appropriate, right, in getting price increase, a certain degree to lines that needed more than others. I think the market is fairly rationalized as we speak.

這就是我要告訴你的。目前在美國，我們對保險業使用的詞是“理性”。這是一個非常理性的市場。這就是事情發生的原因。例如，原因是基於經濟的，而不是增加市場份額或使其成為閃存或營銷驅動的。公司確實正在盡最大努力承保最好的產品，並且適當地提高價格，對比其他公司需要更多的產品線進行一定程度的提高。我認為目前市場已經相當理性化。

Okay. Switching gears a bit to the reinsurance side of the marketplace. Would you say there's been a lot of terms and conditions changes and just season changes, too, especially in Florida. Would you say that if there is a major event, should we be looking at historical market shares that the reinsurers and Arch have had and then -- for cutting it? Would that be like the right exercise to do given we're kind of in hurricane season?

好的。稍微轉向市場的再保險方面。您是否會說有很多條款和條件發生了變化，而且只是季節變化，尤其是在佛羅里達州。您是否會說，如果發生重大事件，我們是否應該查看再保險公司和 Arch 所擁有的歷史市場份額，然後進行削減？鑑於我們正處於颶風季節，這是否是正確的練習？

I think we've grown our portfolio, right? I mean you can see the exposure growth. I think the proxy for market share is probably better to use, the delta and the PML, even though that's only one zone. But as Francois mentioned in his remarks, we do have -- we have an increased participation in a much more wider set of property cat exposure than we used to have before. But the market share that we said anywhere from -- historically from 0.5 to 0.8 is going up a little bit. And I think I will use the PML as a proxy. That's the best thing to tell you right now. [It's very different] zone.

我認為我們已經擴大了我們的投資組合，對嗎？我的意思是你可以看到曝光量的增長。我認為市場份額的替代指標可能更好用，即 Delta 和 PML，儘管這只是一個區域。但正如弗朗索瓦在他的講話中提到的，我們確實有——我們比以前更多地參與了更廣泛的房地產風險敞口。但我們所說的歷史上從 0.5 到 0.8 的市場份額正在略有上升。我想我會使用 PML 作為代理。這是現在告訴你的最好的事情。 [這是非常不同的]區域。

Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I've read the Paul Ingrey reinsurance clock, but it doesn't really relate to something that [Paul] knew about, which I don't, which is how to make money in the late 1970s in the insurance industry. Given where you see loss trends are and given that pricing is going up over an extended period of time, is there an element that we just don't know really what the loss cost trend is and we need an extra padding in there compared with our historical appraisals? And is it possible to put a supplemental ambiguous loss trend on top of what you think the loss trend is currently and still get new business attractively?

我讀過 Paul Ingres 再保險時鐘，但它與 [Paul] 知道的、我不知道的東西並沒有真正相關，這就是 20 世紀 70 年代末保險業如何賺錢。考慮到您看到的損失趨勢在哪裡，並且考慮到定價在很長一段時間內上漲，是否存在我們不知道損失成本趨勢是什麼的因素，與我們的損失成本趨勢相比，我們需要額外的填充歷史評價？是否有可能在您認為當前的損失趨勢之上添加一個補充性的模糊損失趨勢，並且仍然能夠獲得有吸引力的新業務？

Yes. So a very good question. I think this may break it in parts. I think that, yes, we do. As you know, as a reserving practice, we're very keen on the reserving being prudent. We do reserve to a higher level of trend than is embedded in the pricing or what we even observed in the data to make sure that we're accounting for this.

是的。這是一個非常好的問題。我認為這可能會部分破壞它。我認為，是的，我們確實如此。如您所知，作為儲備實踐，我們非常希望謹慎儲備。我們確實保留了比定價中或我們在數據中觀察到的更高水平的趨勢，以確保我們對此進行了解釋。

I think as a result of that uncertainty and the need to get a bit more cushion and the uncertainty that it generates, I mean, you heard us on the other call. I think it does generate that need to get higher price for that reason. But there's a need -- there's a recognition in the industry that we need to be a little bit on this side of the decimal to create some kind of margin of safety. So I do believe that companies are pricing for a higher inflation ratio going forward and also adding a little bit, and that's what helps sustain the hard market as we speak.

我認為，由於這種不確定性、需要獲得更多緩衝以及由此產生的不確定性，我的意思是，您在另一個電話中聽到了我們的聲音。我認為這確實會因此產生獲得更高價格的需求。但有必要——業界認識到我們需要在小數點這一邊稍微做一點，以創造某種安全邊際。因此，我確實相信，企業正在為未來更高的通脹率定價，並增加一點通脹率，這有助於維持我們所說的硬市場。

Is Arch padding more now than it has as a company standard practice in the past?

Arch 填充現在是否比過去作為公司標準做法更多？

Not really. I think we've -- like we talked about this, Josh, on calls for the last 2, 3 years. And I think we've been consistent. We -- it is a little bit of art, right? It's not only science. It's not as granular as you might think it is. You do the reserving process. You do the reserving process. And then you look at what your expectations are versus what the actual is emerging, and you adjust your loss ratio.

並不真地。我想我們——就像我們在過去兩三年的電話會議中討論過的那樣，喬希。我認為我們一直保持一致。我們——這是一點藝術，對吧？這不僅僅是科學。它並不像您想像的那麼精細。您進行預訂過程。您進行預訂過程。然後你看看你的期望與實際情況，然後調整你的損失率。

These 2 things are -- right now, there's a tendency to sort of take a higher loss ratio than otherwise will be indicated because we have to still see through that underwriting year develop, and it's been very consistent. And if you look at our IBNR ratios and that we book the business on our insurance portfolio, it's been consistent for the last 3 years. So we tend to want to make sure that (inaudible) that allows us to reduce some of that before we do. So we have not changed a whole lot. And it's not -- so it's quite a bit a way above you expected. There will be actual emerge with the losses. But inflation develops in the future. So it's an appropriate thing to do, I think, at the early stages. Francois?

這兩件事是 - 目前，有一種趨勢是採取比其他情況更高的損失率，因為我們仍然必須看到承保年度的發展，而且它非常一致。如果您查看我們的 IBNR 比率，並且我們將業務記入我們的保險投資組合，就會發現過去 3 年一直保持一致。因此，我們傾向於確保（聽不清）在我們這樣做之前能夠減少其中的一些。所以我們並沒有改變很多。但事實並非如此——所以這遠遠超出了你的預期。會有實際的損失出現。但未來還會出現通貨膨脹。因此，我認為，在早期階段這樣做是合適的。弗朗索瓦？

Yes. I'd add like COVID certainly through a wrench in the whole process, right? I'd say it's -- the way we think about the business today, the way that the environment is today is different than it was 5 years ago. It was different than it was 10 years ago. So great question, Josh. But it's -- no 2 periods are alike.

是的。我想補充一點，就像新冠疫情一樣，整個過程肯定會受到影響，對吧？我想說的是——我們今天思考業務的方式、今天的環境與 5 年前不同。這與10年前不同。這是一個很好的問題，喬什。但沒有兩個時期是相同的。

And right now, back to Marc's point, I'd say the reaction or how do we think about courts closing and courts reopening and coverages and everything that came with COVID, I think -- I mean we're still kind of working through that. So that's why I think it would suggest that we're -- we like to be prudent and maybe even more so in this environment.

現在，回到馬克的觀點，我想說的是我們的反應，或者我們如何看待法院關閉、法院重新開放、覆蓋範圍以及新冠病毒帶來的一切，我認為——我的意思是我們仍在努力解決這個問題。所以這就是為什麼我認為這表明我們希望保持謹慎，在這種環境下可能更是如此。

And then on Tracy's PML question, you kind of ripped, Francois, on this a little bit. But the corporate charter says you're willing to put 25% of the company's equity capital at risk for a 1-in-250-year event. You're nowhere near that, and I don't really expect there's any market where Arch at this point, given how big it is, would really put 25% of its equity capital at risk for a 1-in-250-year event. How -- what's the reasonable feeling on how much cat risk you'd be willing to take in the best cat market ever?

然後，在特雷西的 PML 問題上，弗朗索瓦，你有點被撕裂了。但公司章程規定，你願意將公司 25% 的股本置於 250 年一遇事件的風險之中。距離這個目標還差得很遠，而且考慮到 Arch 的規模，我真的不認為有任何市場會在 250 年一遇的事件中將其 25% 的股本置於風險之中。 。在有史以來最好的貓市場上，您願意承擔多少貓風險的合理感覺是什麼？

I'd say -- I mean, we think we're in a good market. We know we're in a good market, but we don't know what tomorrow holds. So I mean rates could go up again by a factor of -- quite substantially next year. Again, I don't want to speculate, but there could be some markets kind of pulling back. And then I think -- I agree that in what we know today, it's unlikely that we would hit 25%, but we just don't know what the future holds. So I think we're cognizant that there could be better opportunities at some point down the road.

我想說——我的意思是，我們認為我們處於一個良好的市場。我們知道我們正處於一個良好的市場，但我們不知道明天會發生什麼。所以我的意思是，明年利率可能會再次大幅上漲。再說一次，我不想猜測，但可能會有一些市場出現回調。然後我想——我同意，就我們今天所知，我們不太可能達到 25%，但我們只是不知道未來會怎樣。所以我認為我們認識到在未來的某個時刻可能會有更好的機會。

Our next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

I guess my first question is in MI. It's kind of a follow-up on Jimmy's. So on Page 21 of the supplement, it looks like you guys give reserves -- loss reserves like by vintage year. And the dollar amount of reserves in '20, '21, '22 looks pretty similar to what it was at the end of last year. Against that, you continue to release quite a few, over $100 million. So I guess I was just trying to square that a bit. Like where exactly have these releases been coming from?

我想我的第一個問題是在 MI 中。這是吉米的後續作品。因此，在增刊的第 21 頁上，看起來你們提供了準備金——損失準備金，就像按年份一樣。 20、21、22 年的美元儲備金額看起來與去年年底非常相似。相對於此，你們繼續發行相當多的資金，超過 1 億美元。所以我想我只是想稍微調整一下。比如這些版本到底是從哪裡來的？

Well, just to clarify, I'd say, Ryan, that the reserves, we don't disclose the reserves by year. We show the risk in force. We give you the total dollar amount of reserves as of -- $403 million at the end of the quarter and the same at the end of the year, but there are some shifts between what was at year-end versus now. I will say that most of the reserves that we've -- the releases in the first 6 months of the year have been coming primarily from the '21 to '22 years, I mean, and a little bit of '20 as well.

好吧，只是為了澄清，瑞安，我想說，儲備金，我們不會按年份披露儲備金。我們展示了有效的風險。我們向您提供截至季度末和年底的準備金總額為 4.03 億美元，但年底與現在之間存在一些變化。我想說的是，我們今年前 6 個月釋放的大部分儲備主要來自 21 至 22 年，我的意思是，還有一點 20 年。

What you're saying is also recognition by the MI group that there were more uncertainties and potential recession figures, a lot of things going on. So the assumptions when you do reserving in the long term at that time, you'll tend to increase because of the increased level of risk. So I think that also could explain why well after 2, 3 quarters, we don't need them well. It's because things are also, as we know, changing for the better as we speak on the MI group. So that could explain a little bit why it's a bit higher this quarter.

你所說的也是 MI 集團認識到存在更多的不確定性和潛在的衰退數據，很多事情正在發生。因此，當你進行長期儲備時，由於風險水平的增加，你的假設往往會增加。所以我認為這也可以解釋為什麼在兩三個季度之後，我們不再需要它們了。這是因為，正如我們所知，當我們談論 MI 小組時，情況也在變得更好。因此，這可以解釋為什麼本季度的價格略高。

Got it. And maybe just some perspective on kind of where the ultimate loss ratios on those years are now trending at?

知道了。也許只是對那些年的最終損失率現在趨勢的一些看法？

Well, they are -- I mean, they turned out to be really, really good. I mean the reality is with -- even with COVID and kind of what transpired after that and the forbearance, et cetera, I'd say -- again, we've talked historically about, call it, a long-term average loss ratio in the 20% to 25% range. We're certainly going to be below that.

嗯，他們——我的意思是，結果證明他們真的非常非常好。我的意思是，現實是——即使有新冠病毒以及之後發生的事情以及寬容等等，我想說——我們歷史上再次討論過，稱之為長期平均損失率在20%到25%範圍內。我們肯定會低於這個水平。

Still a little bit -- we're not there yet, but I mean there still has to be -- we need more clarity on how the remaining delinquencies are going to settle or whether they're going to cure or not. But where we're at today, I'd say we're going to be below the long-term average.

還有一點——我們還沒有做到這一點，但我的意思是仍然必須有——我們需要更清楚地了解剩餘的拖欠問題將如何解決，或者它們是否會得到解決。但我想說，我們今天所處的位置將低於長期平均水平。

Got it. And then just a follow-up -- go ahead, sorry.

知道了。然後是後續行動——請繼續，抱歉。

Just to let you know, in terms of loss emergence in MI, it takes a little while, right? It takes 2 or 3 years for losses to start emerging. So it takes a little while to get -- to know what the ultimate is going to be. So I just want to make sure you know it's not like a one and done. It's -- you generate an underwriting year. It takes 2 or 3 years for losses starting to emerge, right? Situations, [family] situation, economic situation and the borrowers evolve over time. So I just want to make sure you know that it's not -- just because nothing has happened...

只是想讓你知道，就 MI 中的損失出現而言，需要一段時間，對嗎？損失需要兩到三年的時間才會開始出現。所以需要一段時間才能知道最終會是什麼。所以我只是想確保你知道這不是一件已經完成的事情。這是——你產生了一個承保年。需要兩三年的時間才會出現虧損，對嗎？情況、[家庭]情況、經濟狀況和借款人隨著時間的推移而變化。所以我只是想確保你知道這不是——只是因為什麼也沒發生......

Yes. I'm still trying to figure this business out, so appreciate it. A follow-up, I guess, for Marc, just on P&C. I'm not sure there's ever been a cycle where like when rates started to decelerate, they reaccelerated. Why hasn't that happened before in your experience?

是的。我仍在努力解決這個問題，所以很感激。我想，馬克的後續行動，只是關於 P&C 的。我不確定是否存在一個週期，就像利率開始減速時，利率又重新加速一樣。為什麼根據您的經驗，這種情況以前沒有發生過？

It's happened before. It's happened before. From '99 to 2001, we had -- 2002, '03, '04, actually, we had a hardening market on the liability side in the U.S. We had new lines of business such as terror and aviation going through the ringer. So we have that going. And I remember a period of time when Arch was underweight cat for the first 2, 3 years of its existence, and we were sort of the eye going against the grain. Most people were shying away from casualty and doing more property. And then we ran into a KRW in '05, and then we had a hard market as well in property.

以前也發生過這樣的事。以前也發生過這樣的事。從99年到2001年，我們——2002年、03年、04年，實際上，我們在美國的負債方面有一個硬化市場。我們有新的業務領域，例如恐怖和航空業務。所以我們就這樣進行。我記得有一段時間，Arch 在它存在的前兩三年裡體重過輕，而我們的眼光卻與穀物格格不入。大多數人都在迴避傷亡，轉而投資更多的財產。然後我們在 05 年遇到了韓元，然後我們的房地產市場也很艱難。

And I think it helped maintain even the business on the liability lines a bit longer. If you look back, the years '06, '07, '08 were still very, very good. And the price decrease were not as probably as high as they could have been otherwise. I think the one factor with these kinds of hardening market in the property side is us competing -- is competition for capital. And I think it also helps buffer or paying down the rate decrease that would otherwise have happened. And that's an important -- or rate stabilizing more than just going down first. So we've had this before. We've had this before.

我認為這甚至有助於將企業的責任線維持得更久一些。如果你回頭看，06年、07年、08年仍然非常非常好。而且價格下降的幅度也沒有想像中那麼大。我認為房地產市場的這種硬化的一個因素是我們的競爭——資本的競爭。我認為這也有助於緩衝或償還本來會發生的利率下降。這是一個重要的因素——或者說利率穩定不僅僅是首先下降。所以我們以前也經歷過這樣的情況。我們以前也經歷過這樣的事。

And then -- so after Katrina, correct me if I'm wrong, there was like 1 year of really good rate. There's quite a bit of supply that came in, and now it's kind of (inaudible). I'm just kind of trying to contrast from a reinsurance standpoint how the supply-demand balance looks today sort of a year after Ian and versus how it did a year after Katrina.

然後，卡特里娜颶風過後，如果我錯了，請糾正我，大約有一年的利率非常好。有相當多的供應進來，現在有點（聽不清）。我只是想從再保險的角度來對比伊恩颶風一年後的供需平衡與卡特里娜颶風一年後的供需平衡情況。

It hasn't changed the hold up. We hear from our third-party capital team and in the market. I mean you hear from other markets. I think that there's a general more leveling off of capacity that's been deployed than we would have expected from the existing incumbent, which helps explain a lot of the price increase that we've seen and our ability to flex in incidents.

它並沒有改變堅持。我們聽取了第三方資本團隊和市場的意見。我的意思是你聽到了其他市場的消息。我認為，已部署的容量總體上比我們對現有現有容量的預期更為平穩，這有助於解釋我們所看到的價格上漲以及我們在事件中靈活應對的能力。

We're not seeing or hearing supply increasing for a while. I think that there's still a very much -- the money that was there before that Brazil was requiring lower returns has not returned back to the table. And even if they were to come back to the table, what we hear is their return expectations, like ours, have increased dramatically. So we'll see where that ends up (inaudible).

我們暫時沒有看到或聽到供應量增加。我認為，巴西要求較低迴報之前存在的資金還沒有回到桌面上。即使他們回到談判桌上，我們聽到的是他們的回報期望，就像我們一樣，也急劇增加。所以我們會看看結果如何（聽不清）。

What are you paying the most attention to, thinking like looking forward into 1/1, kind of what might drive pricing when you get to the end of the year?

您最關注的是什麼，比如期待 1/1，到年底時什麼可能會推動定價？

Well, activity, cat activity, of course, and demand increasing, demand people, like we said before, needing to buy more or having to bite the bullet and do the right thing at the same time as they are improving on insurance portfolio. That's a big tell for us.

嗯，活動，當然是貓的活動，以及需求的增加，就像我們之前所說的那樣，要求人們需要購買更多，或者必須在改善保險組合的同時硬著頭皮做正確的事情。這對我們來說意義重大。

Our next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩·梅雷迪思。

A couple of questions here for you. First, just on your PML, what is your peak zone right now? Is it still Northeast?

這裡有幾個問題要問你。首先，就您的 PML 而言，您現在的峰值區域是什麼？這還是東北嗎？

(inaudible), Florida.

（聽不清），佛羅里達州。

Where is it? Pardon me? Florida?

它在哪裡？對不起？佛羅里達？

Florida. (inaudible) Miami-Dade (inaudible).

佛羅里達。 （聽不清）邁阿密-戴德（聽不清）。

Okay. And then on the PML question, I'm just curious. You gave us 1-in-250. But how has your kind of 1-in-50 and 1-in-100 kind of increased over -- since, call it, at the beginning of the year? Is it -- they increased more, less, about the same amount? I'm just trying to get a sense of where you're playing in programs.

好的。關於 PML 問題，我只是很好奇。你給了我們250分之一。但是，自今年年初以來，五十分之一和一百十分之一的比例是如何增加的呢？是不是——他們增加了更多，更少，大約相同的數量？我只是想了解一下你在節目中的表現。

Yes. So from a big zone perspective, it's gone up similarly in terms of percentage. It's a very similar increase.

是的。因此，從大區域的角度來看，它的百分比也有類似的上升。這是一個非常相似的增長。

Got you. That's helpful. And then, Marc, I'm just curious. I know there was a lot of one-off type transactions, top-up programs that happened in the second quarter. Can you give maybe some perspective on how much of that contributed to your growth here in the second quarter? And how much is kind of continuing here going forward? Just so we can get a sense of how is this growth sustainable here for the remainder of the year, maybe into '24.

明白你了。這很有幫助。然後，馬克，我只是很好奇。我知道第二季度發生了很多一次性交易和充值計劃。您能否就這對您第二季度的增長做出了多大貢獻提供一些看法？繼續在這裡下去有多少意義？這樣我們就可以了解今年剩餘時間（也許到 24 年）這種增長如何可持續。

We've had a couple of -- we've had a couple of programs, for instance, in the Asia that we won. And we've had a couple of big -- but I don't think this quarter is necessarily a large transaction quarter Brian, the way you make it sound. I think it was more regular growth. A couple of transactions here and there, but nothing to the extent that when we talk on the call, as Francois mentioned in his remarks, that he has to highlight it specifically before. I don't think there's nothing really to highlight in this quarter, actually.

我們已經有幾個項目了，例如，我們在亞洲贏得了冠軍。我們已經發生了一些大交易，但我不認為這個季度一定是一個大交易季度，布萊恩，正如你所說的那樣。我認為這是更正常的增長。到處都有一些交易，但沒有達到我們在電話會議上交談時的程度，正如弗朗索瓦在他的講話中提到的那樣，他之前必須特別強調這一點。實際上，我認為本季度沒有什麼值得強調的。

Good. And then I guess last one, just quickly here. One of your competitors talked about reducing market share in the MI business because there's some concerns about [potentially] recession here going forward. Maybe give us your kind of perspective on what you're seeing right now in your MI and kind of outlook and potential for some higher loss ratios there if we do go into recession as we look into '24.

好的。然後我猜最後一個，很快就到了。您的一位競爭對手談到了減少 MI 業務的市場份額，因為人們擔心未來[可能]出現衰退。也許請告訴我們您目前在 MI 中所看到的情況，以及如果我們在 24 世紀進入衰退時確實陷入衰退，那麼您對前景和損失率可能會更高的看法。

Yes. I think pricing has improved over the last 2 years, and credit quality stays really, really beautiful. And it's why it's among the best, I think if we go back to 2013, 2012 in terms of quality of origination. So it's -- as you know, credit is not readily available. The availability of credit is still pretty tight out there. So from a credit quality perspective, Brian, it's as good. It's a really, really solid marketplace.

是的。我認為過去兩年定價有所改善，信貸質量仍然非常非常好。這就是為什麼它是最好的，我想如果我們回到 2013 年、2012 年，就原產地質量而言。如您所知，信貸並不容易獲得。信貸的供應仍然相當緊張。所以從信用質量的角度來看，布萊恩，它同樣好。這是一個非常非常穩固的市場。

I think the market share question, which we never -- we don't lose sleep over this, as you know, Brian, I think a couple of things in the market share that we're trying to do in terms of shaping the portfolio in the MI is trying to get the higher quality, like I mentioned in my remarks, lower FICO -- higher FICO, lower LTV and also geographically go to the places where there's less perceived inflation or overvaluation.

我認為市場份額問題，我們從來沒有——我們不會為此失眠，正如你所知，布萊恩，我認為我們在塑造投資組合方面正在努力做一些市場份額方面的事情MI 正在努力獲得更高的質量，就像我在評論中提到的那樣，更低的 FICO——更高的 FICO、更低的 LTV，並且在地理位置上也去往那些不太明顯的通貨膨脹或高估的地方。

And also, there's some different programs that have different returns, meaning they are less than we would have hoped for them to be. And they just don't meet our threshold. And especially, Brian, if you overlay the opportunity set that we have on the property side, it just makes for our fellow folks in MI willing to take the earnings that they generate and give it to us on the P&C side to generate even better returns. So really good return business, Brian. It's just also for us a matter of comparative ROEs as well as absolute.

而且，有些不同的計劃有不同的回報，這意味著它們的回報低於我們的預期。他們只是沒有達到我們的門檻。特別是，布萊恩，如果你把我們在房地產方面的機會集疊加起來，這只會讓我們在密歇根州的同事願意將他們產生的收入交給我們在財產和意外險方面，以產生更好的回報。布萊恩，生意回報真的很好。對我們來說，這也是相對股本回報率和絕對股本回報率的問題。

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 以及 Keefe、Bruyette 和 Woods。

A quick question to start. The level of reserve releases in reinsurance was lower than it's been in recent quarters. I was hoping you can give us some color. Is that because you're assuming higher loss trends? Or are there other factors that may have played into the quarter's results?

先問一個簡單的問題。再保險的準備金釋放水平低於最近幾個季度的水平。我希望你能給我們一些顏色。這是因為您假設損失趨勢更高嗎？或者還有其他因素可能影響了本季度的業績嗎？

No, I'd say it's -- I mean we will look at the data, right? So I think some quarters, there's evidence that we can release a bit more. This quarter, maybe not as much. It's a process that we go through every quarter. So I think our underwriters and our actuaries kind of sit down and take a look at the respective treaties and come up with a point of view on whether there's enough evidence to release reserves. So I wouldn't read too much into it right now. I think it's a just another quarter still, we think, healthy reserves, healthy reserve releases, but not as much as you said in prior quarters.

不，我想說的是——我的意思是我們會查看數據，對嗎？所以我認為在某些方面，有證據表明我們可以釋放更多的資金。本季度的情況可能不會那麼嚴重。這是我們每個季度都要經歷的過程。因此，我認為我們的承銷商和精算師應該坐下來看看各自的條約，並就是否有足夠的證據來釋放準備金提出自己的觀點。所以我現在不會讀太多。我認為這只是又一個季度，我們認為，健康的儲備，健康的儲備釋放，但沒有你在前幾個季度所說的那麼多。

Okay. No, that's fair. Second question, and I'm really not sure how to ask this. But there's a lot of chaos right now in U.S. personal lines. And Arch has always been really opportunistic. I was wondering if there's a way that in a line of business that's so dominated by major players, but you do have this level of instability. Is there an opportunity for Arch?

好的。不，這很公平。第二個問題，我真的不知道該怎麼問。但目前美國的個人事務存在很多混亂。 Arch 一直都是非常機會主義的。我想知道是否有一種方式可以在一個由主要參與者主導的行業中實現，但確實存在這種程度的不穩定。 Arch有機會嗎？

I think it's a hard one, Meyer. I think that our shareholders -- I mean, we could always see what we could do there. But from our perspective, I think we're more of a B2B and more of a commercial provider of insurance and specialty provider of insurance. Certainly, on the reinsurance side, we're hopeful. Our companies -- a lot of companies are homeowners, writers, and we do provide significant capacity for them, be it on a core share basis or excess of loss and also be on property.

我認為這很難，邁耶。我認為我們的股東——我的意思是，我們總能看到我們能在那裡做什麼。但從我們的角度來看，我認為我們更多的是一家 B2B、一家商業保險提供商和專業保險提供商。當然，在再保險方面，我們充滿希望。我們的公司——很多公司都是房主、作家，我們確實為他們提供了重要的能力，無論是核心股份還是超額損失以及財產。

So I think our game plan on homeowners is more to support the clients that we have because I think on a long-term basis, it has a set of characteristics, as we all know, and focus that is not necessarily core to what we do every day, great filing and everything else in between. It's a bit of a different animal for us.

因此，我認為我們對房主的遊戲計劃更多的是支持我們擁有的客戶，因為我認為從長遠來看，它具有一系列特徵，眾所周知，並且重點不一定是我們所做工作的核心每天，出色的歸檔以及其間的其他一切。對我們來說，這是一種有點不同的動物。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

With most of my questions already asked and answered, I figured I'd maybe focus on a couple of more esoteric items. So first, on ad covers, can you maybe talk about how much you're still writing in '23 versus '22?

由於我的大部分問題已經提出並得到解答，我想我可能會關註一些更深奧的項目。首先，在廣告封面上，您能談談您在 23 年與 22 年相比還寫了多少內容嗎？

We've cut our ad book significantly over the last 12 months. You see even in 2022, we started cut already as we saw this. And again, it's a matter of opportunity, right? I mean we do some, but we've cut the book heavily because of the better -- frankly, better opportunities on the excess of loss occurrence. Much better, yes.

在過去 12 個月裡，我們大幅削減了廣告數量。你看，即使在 2022 年，我們也已經開始削減開支了。再說一遍，這是一個機會問題，對嗎？我的意思是我們做了一些，但我們已經大幅削減了預算，因為坦率地說，我們有更好的機會來應對過度損失的發生。好多了，是的。

And is the client base there? Has that changed at all? Can you maybe talk about the mix between large globals, smaller regionals?

那裡有客戶群嗎？這有什麼改變嗎？您能否談談大型全球企業和小型區域企業之間的組合？

Well, we had a -- when we grew (inaudible) Florida, as you know, is a different kind of animal because of all the (inaudible) small companies out there. But in general, I would say that our portfolio will opportunistically grow into the larger global companies. We tend to think that they're relatively not as -- this has transparency and visibility into what they write. So our tendency is to be more of a super-regional businesses and more ones that have a lesser footprint in terms of stake. We think we can better allocate capital.

嗯，當我們發展（聽不清）時，正如你所知，佛羅里達是一種不同的動物，因為那裡有所有（聽不清）的小公司。但總的來說，我想說我們的投資組合將有機會成長為更大的全球公司。我們傾向於認為他們相對而言不是——這對他們所寫的內容具有透明度和可見性。因此，我們的趨勢是成為更多的超區域企業，以及更多在股權方面足跡較小的企業。我們認為我們可以更好地配置資本。

This is sort of a high-level philosophy that we've had for years. That hasn't really changed our own. I think that we prefer to grow with these clients over time. But having all this opportunistically, being on a core share basis of excess of loss if it's a large corporate, we definitely were able to provide more capacity, if they needed. As we speak and then price, we believe we're effective at the higher level of risk that they have. So I think I would say same as before, a little bit opportunistically on larger companies.

這是我們多年來一直持有的一種高級哲學。這並沒有真正改變我們自己。我認為我們更願意與這些客戶一起成長。但考慮到這一切，如果是一家大公司，我們絕對能夠在他們需要的時候提供更多的產能。當我們說話並定價時，我們相信我們在他們所面臨的較高風險水平上是有效的。所以我想我會像以前一樣說，對大公司有點機會主義。

Got it. And then if I put this together then and we look at the very large cat activity that has really been incurred much more by the primaries here. With the changes in terms and conditions and maybe tighter or more limited cover per peril, ultimately, how does that impact ad covers later in the year if, let's say, the primaries had a lot of cat losses on secondary perils that are now no longer covered by reinsurers, at least not per event? Ultimately, does that also flow into the ad covers that will not be breached on a reinsurance level because of that?

知道了。如果我把這些放在一起，我們就會看到這裡的初選確實引起了更多的貓活動。隨著條款和條件的變化，以及每種危險的承保範圍可能更加嚴格或更有限，最終，如果初選因次要危險而造成大量損失，那麼最終，這將如何影響今年晚些時候的廣告承保範圍？由再保險公司承保，至少不是每次事件？最終，這是否也會流入不會因此而在再保險層面上被破壞的廣告保險？

Yes. So I think that excess of loss is very similar to the current. If you do change terms and conditions and cut the coverage at the underlying portfolio level, it will have a leverage impact into your aggregate excess or occurrence, meaning it will definitely cut down the loss expectations heavily into these layers.

是的。所以我認為超額損失和現在非常相似。如果您確實更改條款和條件並削減基礎投資組合層面的承保範圍，則會對您的總超額或發生率產生槓桿影響，這意味著它肯定會大幅降低這些層的損失預期。

But what I would tell you, Yaron, is we're not there yet, right? This is the early innings, like I mentioned to you before on the call, is that we're going to have -- the phenomenon we just talked about, we'll have a much better perspective and view on this and the impact it's going to have on the losses next year and through '25. I think right now, we still have a portfolio that hasn't gone through quite 100%, right, of all these (inaudible) that you and I expect to happen, I think, in the marketplace.

但我要告訴你的是，Yaron，我們還沒有到那一步，對嗎？這是早期的幾局，就像我之前在電話會議上向你們提到的那樣，我們將會出現我們剛才談到的現象，我們將對這一現象及其所產生的影響有一個更好的視角和看法明年直至 25 年都會出現虧損。我認為現在，我們的投資組合還沒有 100% 經歷過所有這些（聽不清），我認為，我認為在市場上會發生這些（聽不清）。

So the aggregate of losses for that reason, probably still a bad bet in 2023, right? So we probably need to see this underlying change in terms and conditions on the insurance portfolio before we can see this being a potential viable product.

因此，因此造成的損失總額在 2023 年可能仍然是一個糟糕的賭注，對嗎？因此，我們可能需要看到保險組合條款和條件的根本變化，然後才能看到這是一個潛在的可行產品。

Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marc Grandisson for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前我不會提出任何進一步的問題。我現在請馬克·格蘭迪森先生致閉幕詞。

So from gorgeous Bermuda, I want to wish everybody a good month of August, and we'll see you in the fall. Thanks for your support.

因此，在美麗的百慕大，我想祝大家八月愉快，我們秋天再見。感謝您的支持。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。你們都可以斷開連接。