美國航空 (AAL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

美國航空集團公佈第三季調整後稅前利潤為 3.62 億美元,超出預期。在強勁需求和旅遊獎勵計畫的推動下,該公司實現了創紀錄的 135 億美元收入。他們已經與聯合飛行員協會敲定了一份新合同,並正在努力與空服員和代理人達成協議。

美國航空計劃將重點放在可靠性、盈利能力和強化資產負債表上。他們的目標是提高航空公司的效率,並為服務不足的市場恢復區域服務。該公司對未來持樂觀態度,並相信他們的努力將使團隊成員、客戶、社區和投資者受益。他們承認該行業面臨的挑戰,但對自己的長期成功充滿信心。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to American Airlines Group's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions).

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加美國航空集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。

  • I would now like to hand the call over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Corporate Development, Scott Long. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉給企業發展投資者關係副總裁 Scott Long。請繼續。

  • Scott Long - MD of IR

    Scott Long - MD of IR

  • Thank you, Latif. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the American Airlines Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with prepared remarks, we have our CEO, Robert Isom; and our CFO, Devon May. A number of our other senior executives are also here in the room this morning for the Q&A session.

    謝謝你,拉蒂夫。大家早安,歡迎參加美國航空集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我們的執行長羅伯特·伊索姆 (Robert Isom) 在電話會議上發表了事先準備好的演講。以及我們的財務長德文梅 (Devon May)。今天早上,我們的其他一些高階主管也來到了會議室參加問答環節。

  • Robert will start the call with an overview of our performance, and Devon will follow with details on the third quarter and will outline our operating plans and outlook going forward.

    羅伯特將首先概述我們的業績,德文郡將介紹第三季度的詳細信息,並概述我們的營運計劃和未來展望。

  • After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for analyst questions, followed by questions from the media. To get in as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Before we begin today, we must state that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including statements concerning future revenues, costs, forecast of capacity and fleet plans. These statements represent our predictions and expectations of future events, but numerous risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ from those projected. Information about some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in our earnings press release that was issued this morning as well as our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023.

    在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將開始徵求分析師提問,然後是媒體提問。為了盡可能地提出問題,請將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。在今天開始之前,我們必須聲明,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,包括有關未來收入、成本、運力預測和機隊計劃的陳述。這些陳述代表了我們對未來事件的預測和預期,但許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測不同。有關其中一些風險和不確定性的信息可以在我們今天早上發布的收益新聞稿以及截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的季度的 10-Q 表格中找到。

  • In addition, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures this morning, which exclude the impact of unusual items. A reconciliation of those numbers to the GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. A webcast of this call will also be archived on our website. The information we are giving you on the call this morning is as of today's date, and we undertake no obligation to update the information subsequently. Thank you for your interest and for joining us this morning.

    此外,我們今天上午將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標,其中排除了異常項目的影響。這些數字與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在收益新聞稿中,您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到該新聞稿。本次電話會議的網路廣播也將存檔在我們的網站上。我們今天早上在電話中向您提供的資訊截至今天,我們不承擔隨後更新資訊的義務。感謝您的關注並今天早上加入我們。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Robert Isom.

    接下來,我會將電話轉給我們的執行長羅伯特·伊索姆 (Robert Isom)。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Scott. And good morning, everyone. Today, American reported an adjusted pretax profit of approximately $362 million for the third quarter and earnings result that was above the high end of our latest EPS guidance range. The American Airlines team continues to produce strong results. And as we look ahead to the rest of the year, we continue to prioritize reliability, profitability, accountability and strengthening the balance sheet. We are also focused on taking care of the team.

    謝謝,斯科特。大家早安。今天,美國航空報告第三季調整後稅前利潤約為 3.62 億美元,獲利結果高於我們最新每股收益指引範圍的上限。美國航空團隊持續創造強勁業績。展望今年剩餘時間,我們將繼續優先考慮可靠性、獲利能力、責任感和強化資產負債表。我們也非常注重照顧團隊。

  • We are very pleased to have finalized a new contract with the Allied Pilots Association in August. The agreement delivers significant compensation and quality of life improvements to our pilots while allowing us to expand our training capacity to support underutilized aircraft and our future flying. We're also working toward new agreements for our flight attendants and agents. We're running a strong and reliable operation, involving our commercial offerings taking care of our team and customers producing free cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet. All of this speaks to our steadfast focus on controlling what we can control, and we are proud to say that we are delivering on our commitments.

    我們很高興在八月與聯合飛行員協會簽訂了一份新合約。該協議為我們的飛行員提供了顯著的補償和生活品質的改善,同時使我們能夠擴大培訓能力,以支持未充分利用的飛機和我們未來的飛行。我們也正在努力為我們的空服人員和代理人達成新的協議。我們正在運行強大而可靠的運營,涉及我們的商業產品,照顧我們的團隊和客戶,產生自由現金流並加強我們的資產負債表。所有這些都表明我們堅定地致力於控制我們可以控制的事情,我們很自豪地說我們正在兌現我們的承諾。

  • Now before discussing our results in more detail. On behalf of all of us at American, I want to say how shocked and saddened we are by the horrific attacks in Israel and we joined the international community in condemning these acts of hate and violence and we are devastated by the incredible loss of innocent life. We're making every effort to care for our team members who are impacted by this tragedy and to keep our team members safe while also working with the U.S. government to help find safe travel options for customers trying to depart the region. The safety and security of our team members, customers and their families remains our top priority.

    現在,在更詳細地討論我們的結果之前。我謹代表美國航空全體員工表示,我們對以色列發生的可怕襲擊事件感到多麼震驚和悲傷,我們與國際社會一起譴責這些仇恨和暴力行為,我們對無辜生命的難以置信的損失感到震驚。我們正在盡一切努力照顧受這場悲劇影響的團隊成員,確保團隊成員的安全,同時與美國政府合作,協助試圖離開該地區的乘客找到安全的旅行選擇。我們團隊成員、客戶及其家人的安全仍然是我們的首要任務。

  • Turning now to our financial results. We produced record third quarter revenues of approximately $13.5 billion, driven by a resilient demand environment and record travel rewards program revenue. Domestic demand remains steady, while international demand continues to drive revenue growth, led by the Atlantic, Caribbean and Central America.

    現在轉向我們的財務表現。在彈性需求環境和創紀錄的旅行獎勵計畫收入的推動下,我們第三季營收創紀錄地達到約 135 億美元。國內需求保持穩定,而以大西洋、加勒比海和中美洲為首的國際需求持續推動收入成長。

  • During the third quarter, we saw year-over-year growth in corporate and government revenue with a return to more traditional seasonality trends. We remain encouraged by what we're seeing with demand and revenue from unmanaged business travel. Importantly, more customers than ever are choosing our travel rewards program by acquiring our co-brand credit cards in record numbers and rolling in the AAdvantage program and shopping for our product through our direct channels.

    第三季度,我們看到企業和政府收入較去年同期成長,並回歸到更傳統的季節性趨勢。我們仍然對不受管理的商務旅行帶來的需求和收入感到鼓舞。重要的是,越來越多的客戶透過購買我們的聯名信用卡、參與 AAdvantage 計劃以及透過我們的直接管道購買我們的產品,來選擇我們的旅行獎勵計劃。

  • Co-brand mileage sales growth continues to outpace airline capacity and GDP growth, driving increased levels of loyalty and revenue production from card users. In the third quarter, approximately 80% of our bookings came from our own channels and modern retailing technology, which is up approximately 11 points from a year ago. These are the most efficient distribution channels in our ecosystem, and we expect to see these trends continue into the fourth quarter and beyond.

    聯名品牌哩程銷售成長持續超過航空公司運能和 GDP 成長,推動持卡用戶忠誠度和收入水準的提升。第三季度,我們大約80%的預訂來自我們自己的通路和現代零售技術,比去年同期成長了約11個百分點。這些是我們生態系統中最有效的分銷管道,我們預計這些趨勢將持續到第四季及以後。

  • Looking forward, our network and travel rewards program will continue to be the primary drivers of value for our customers and for American, and we are focused on operating our business as efficiently as possible. Our simplified fleet remains the youngest and most efficient among the U.S. network carriers, and we are working to increase the utilization of both our mainline and regional aircraft.

    展望未來,我們的網路和旅行獎勵計劃將繼續成為我們的客戶和美國航空價值的主要驅動力,我們致力於盡可能高效地經營我們的業務。我們的簡化機隊仍然是美國網路航空公司中最年輕、最有效率的,我們正在努力提高幹線和支線飛機的使用率。

  • In addition, we are identifying opportunities to drive incremental value across the company. These initiatives in our limited near- and medium-term CapEx requirements will allow us to continue to generate free cash flow that we can use to reinvest in the business and continue to pay down debt.

    此外,我們正在尋找推動整個公司增值的機會。這些舉措在我們有限的近期和中期資本支出要求中將使我們能夠繼續產生自由現金流,我們可以用它來對業務進行再投資並繼續償還債務。

  • Now turning to our operation. The American Airlines team delivered another quarter of fantastic operational results. Our team has produced stellar results for more than a year, including a record-setting performance during the peak travel period this summer. American operated more than 515,000 flights in the third quarter, and we produced our best-ever third quarter completion factor of 98.6%.

    現在轉向我們的操作。美國航空團隊又一個季度取得了出色的營運表現。一年多來,我們的團隊取得了出色的成績,其中包括在今年夏天的旅遊高峰期創下了紀錄。美國航空第三季營運了超過 51.5 萬架次航班,第三季完成率創歷史新高,達到 98.6%。

  • American ended the quarter with the best completion factor of the U.S. network carriers while maintaining our first place standing in on-time departures through the first 9 months of the year. No network airline has operated more reliably than American over the past 15 months. Our operational performance is better than ever, and it's because of our steadfast focus on reliability and strong execution in an increasingly complex environment. Our commercial and operations teams build a fantastic plan each month. We execute on it, and we recover quickly during irregular operations. We're building on our momentum, and we are committed to delivering a reliable operation for our customers as we approach the holiday season.

    本季結束時,美國航空在美國網路航空公司中完成率最高,同時在今年前 9 個月的航班準時率方面保持第一名。在過去 15 個月裡,沒有一家網路航空公司的營運比美國航空更可靠。我們的營運績效比以往任何時候都更好,這是因為我們在日益複雜的環境中堅定不移地專注於可靠性和強大的執行力。我們的商業和營運團隊每個月都會制定一個出色的計劃。我們執行它,並且在不規則操作中我們很快就會恢復。我們正在鞏固我們的勢頭,並致力於在假期來臨之際為我們的客戶提供可靠的營運。

  • And now I'll turn it over to Devon to share more about our third quarter financial results and the outlook for the fourth quarter.

    現在我將把它交給德文郡,分享更多有關我們第三季財務業績和第四季度前景的資訊。

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Robert. I would also like to thank the team for delivering another outstanding quarter. During the third quarter, the average price of jet fuel increased sharply. While the rapid increase in fuel prices resulted in lower earnings in the quarter, we continue to stay focused on our priorities.

    謝謝你,羅伯特。我還要感謝團隊再次提供出色的季度業績。第三季度,航油平均價格大幅上漲。儘管燃料價格的快速上漲導致本季收益下降,但我們繼續專注於我們的優先事項。

  • As Robert mentioned, in the third quarter, we delivered a fantastic operation for our customers. We finalized a new contract for our pilots, and we took further action to strengthen our balance sheet. Excluding net special items, we reported third quarter net income of $263 million or adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.38. This is above the high end of our most recent guidance update driven by slightly higher capacity and better ex fuel unit cost performance in the quarter.

    正如羅伯特所提到的,在第三季度,我們為客戶提供了出色的營運。我們為飛行員敲定了一份新合同,並採取了進一步行動來加強我們的資產負債表。不計淨特殊項目,我們公佈的第三季淨利為 2.63 億美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.38 美元。這高於我們最新指導更新的上限,這是由於本季產能略有增加和更好的燃油單位成本績效所致。

  • American produced record third quarter revenue of approximately $13.5 billion. This revenue performance led to adjusted operating income of nearly $730 million resulting in a third quarter adjusted operating margin of 5.4%. Our strong operational performance in the third quarter resulted in capacity that was 6.9% higher year-over-year at the high end of our guidance range. Revenue for the quarter was in line with what we had shared in July and unit revenue was down 6.3% versus a historically strong 2022. Unit costs, excluding net special items and fuel, was up 3.3% year-over-year, nearly 1 point better than the low end of our prior guidance range.

    美國航空第三季營收創歷史新高,約 135 億美元。這項營收表現導致調整後營業收入接近 7.3 億美元,第三季調整後營業利益率為 5.4%。我們第三季強勁的營運業績導致運力年增 6.9%,達到我們指導範圍的上限。本季的收入與我們 7 月分享的一致,單位收入與 2022 年的歷史強勁水平相比下降了 6.3%。單位成本(不包括淨特殊項目和燃料)同比增長 3.3%,接近 1 個百分點好於我們之前指導範圍的低端。

  • This outcome was driven by higher capacity and some expenses that were pushed to the fourth quarter. Our significant fleet investments over the past decade allows for relatively modest aircraft CapEx this decade. Year-to-date, we have taken delivery of 17 mainline aircraft, and we expect 4 more aircraft to be delivered by year-end. Two narrow-body aircraft deliveries have been delayed into 2024, so we now anticipate taking delivery of a total of 21 aircraft in 2023. All of our 2023 deliveries have been financed. Given the continued supply chain challenges the OEMs are managing, we have been in the used market for younger vintage narrow-body aircraft.

    這一結果是由更高的產能和推遲到第四季度的一些費用所推動的。我們在過去十年中對機隊進行了大量投資,這使得本十年的飛機資本支出相對較低。今年迄今為止,我們已接收了 17 架幹線飛機,預計到年底將再交付 4 架。兩架窄體飛機的交付已推遲到 2024 年,因此我們現在預計在 2023 年接收總共 21 架飛機。我們在 2023 年的所有交付均已獲得融資。鑑於原始設備製造商面臨的持續供應鏈挑戰,我們一直處於年輕老式窄體飛機的二手市場。

  • We have signed an agreement with Alaska Airlines to purchase 10 Airbus A321neo aircraft that we expect to join fleet in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2024. Our 2023 aircraft CapEx is now expected to be approximately $1.9 billion, which includes a portion of the Alaska A321neo deliveries. Our 2023 non-aircraft CapEx is still expected to be approximately $800 million. We anticipate our 2024 total CapEx to be between $3 billion and $3.3 billion, slightly below our prior guide as we finalize our 2024 delivery schedules.

    我們已與阿拉斯加航空簽署協議,購買 10 架空中巴士 A321neo 飛機,預計將在今年第四季和 2024 年第一季加入機隊。我們 2023 年飛機資本支出目前預計約為 19 億美元,其中包括阿拉斯加A321neo交付的一部分。我們 2023 年的非飛機資本支出預計仍約為 8 億美元。我們預計 2024 年的總資本支出將在 30 億美元至 33 億美元之間,略低於我們最終確定 2024 年交付計畫時的預期。

  • Looking beyond 2024, we continue to review our medium- and long-term fleet needs, and we are currently engaged with Boeing and Airbus for narrow-body aircraft deliveries in the latter half of this decade and beyond. Due to the young age of our fleet, we do not have any planned aircraft retirements this decade. As a result, we continue to expect aircraft CapEx to average approximately $3.5 billion per year through 2030. We are very pleased to have built our fleet in a low interest rate environment and at a time when the supply chain wasn't as challenged as it is today.

    展望2024年後,我們將繼續審查中長期機隊需求,目前我們正在與波音和空中巴士合作,在本十年後半段及以後交付窄體飛機。由於我們的機隊還很年輕,我們在這十年內沒有任何飛機退役計劃。因此,我們仍然預計,到 2030 年,飛機資本支出平均每年約為 35 億美元。我們很高興在低利率環境下以及供應鏈沒有像以前那樣面臨挑戰的情況下建立我們的機隊。是今天。

  • A relatively low capital requirements, along with our free cash flow production has allowed for significant progress in strengthening the balance sheet. We've now reduced total debt by approximately $10.9 billion from peak levels in 2021, and we are more than 70% of the way to our goal of reducing total debt by $15 billion by the end of 2025.

    相對較低的資本要求以及我們的自由現金流量使得在加強資產負債表方面取得了重大進展。目前,我們已將總債務較 2021 年的峰值水準減少了約 109 億美元,並且距離 2025 年底將總債務減少 150 億美元的目標已完成 70% 以上。

  • By year-end, we expect to have paid down approximately $11.5 billion and will be 77% of the way to our total debt reduction goal. In addition to paying down regularly scheduled debt, year-to-date, we have proactively decreased our 2025 maturities by $2.3 billion through both the refinancing of the $1.8 billion South American term loan in the first quarter and more than $550 million of open market repurchases over the past 2 quarters.

    到年底,我們預計將償還約 115 億美元,並將完成總債務削減目標的 77%。除了償還定期債務外,今年迄今為止,我們還透過第一季 18 億美元南美定期貸款的再融資和超過 5.5 億美元的公開市場回購,主動將 2025 年到期期限減少了 23 億美元過去2個季度。

  • All 3 credit rating agencies recognized our progress with upgrades in the third quarter and we expect further ratings improvements in the coming years as we continue to reduce total debt levels. We ended the third quarter with approximately $13.5 billion of total available liquidity. And for the full year, we now expect free cash flow to approach $2 billion. The reduction from our prior free cash flow estimate is due to slightly higher aircraft CapEx related to the Alaska A321 and lower earnings, largely due to the recent run-up in fuel expense.

    所有 3 個信用評級機構都認可了我們在第三季度的升級進展,我們預計隨著我們繼續降低總債務水平,未來幾年評級將進一步提高。第三季末,我們可用的流動資金總額約為 135 億美元。我們現在預計全年自由現金流將接近 20 億美元。我們先前的自由現金流預測有所減少,這是由於與阿拉斯加 A321 相關的飛機資本支出略高,以及收益下降(主要是由於近期燃油費用上漲)。

  • Now on to the outlook for the fourth quarter. Post Labor Day bookings have been in line with expectations. We have seen steady improvement in business travel with encouraging signs from both managed and unmanaged corporate customers, strong international demand and historically high premium revenue, both domestically and internationally. Consistent with recent trends, we expect steady demand during the upcoming peak holiday travel season. However, the strong unit revenue environment in 2022 continues to be a difficult comparison.

    現在談談第四季的展望。勞動節後的預訂量符合預期。我們看到商務旅行穩步改善,託管和非託管企業客戶都出現了令人鼓舞的跡象,國際需求強勁,國內和國際保費收入創歷史新高。與近期趨勢一致,我們預計即將到來的假日旅遊旺季需求將保持穩定。然而,2022 年強勁的單位收入環境仍然難以進行比較。

  • As a result, we expect fourth quarter TRASM to be down 5.5% to 7.5% on 4.5% to 6.5% more capacity year-over-year. We expect fourth quarter CASMx to be up 5% to 7% year-over-year. This step up in sequential year-over-year CASMx is driven by the shift of some expenses from the third quarter to the fourth quarter and less year-over-year capacity growth. Our full year CASMx guide remains unchanged, up approximately 3% versus 2022. Our current forecast for the fourth quarter assumes a fuel price of between $3.01 and $3.11 per gallon. Based on our current demand assumptions and fuel price forecast, we expect to produce an adjusted operating margin of between 2% and 4% in the fourth quarter.

    因此,我們預計第四季 TRASM 將下降 5.5% 至 7.5%,運力將年增 4.5% 至 6.5%。我們預計第四季度 CASMx 將年增 5% 至 7%。 CASMx 年成長的原因是一些費用從第三季轉移到第四季以及年比產能成長減少。我們的全年 CASMx 指南保持不變,比 2022 年上漲約 3%。我們目前對第四季度的預測假設燃油價格在每加侖 3.01 美元至 3.11 美元之間。根據我們目前的需求假設和燃油價格預測,我們預計第四季度調整後的營業利潤率將在 2% 至 4% 之間。

  • We continue to expect our full year capacity to be up approximately 6.5% versus 2022. Our full year forecast for TRASM is to be up approximately 1% year-over-year. And as I just mentioned, we expect our full year CASMx to be up approximately 3% versus 2022. Our capacity, TRASM and CASMx expectations for the year are all consistent with the guidance we provided in January of this year. This result speaks to the planning, focus and determination of our team. Based on our demand and fuel cost assumptions, we now expect to produce a full year adjusted operating margin of approximately 7% and adjusted EPS of between $2.25 and $2.50.

    我們仍預計全年產能將比 2022 年成長約 6.5%。我們對 TRASM 的全年預測將年增約 1%。正如我剛才提到的,我們預計全年 CASMx 將比 2022 年成長約 3%。我們今年的產能、TRASM 和 CASMx 預期均與我們今年 1 月提供的指導一致。這個結果說明了我們團隊的計劃、重點和決心。根據我們的需求和燃料成本假設,我們現在預計全年調整後營業利潤率約為 7%,調整後每股收益在 2.25 美元至 2.50 美元之間。

  • Looking ahead to 2024, we continue to expect our capacity to be up mid-single digits year-over-year, largely driven by better overall asset utilization. Increases in capacity will be oriented to our strengths with our global partnerships complementing our own flying. In 2024, we will have the assets and resources to finally grow beyond our 2019 capacity levels but we will be nimble and adjust capacity based on the fuel and demand environment we are operating in. We are pleased with the progress the American Airlines team has made in 2023, and we remain focused on delivering results and pursuing efficiencies to unlock additional value in 2024 and beyond.

    展望 2024 年,我們繼續預期我們的產能將年增中個位數,這主要得益於整體資產利用率的提高。運力的增加將針對我們的優勢,透過我們的全球合作夥伴關係來補充我們自己的飛行。到 2024 年,我們將擁有最終超越 2019 年運力水準的資產和資源,但我們將根據我們所處的燃料和需求環境靈活調整運力。我們對美國航空團隊的進展感到高興2023 年,我們將繼續專注於交付成果並追求效率,以在2024 年及以後釋放更多價值。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Robert for closing remarks.

    現在我將把它轉回給羅伯特做總結發言。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Devon. We're incredibly proud of everything the American Airlines team has accomplished over the past 18 months. We told you we were going to focus on reliability, profitability and strengthening our balance sheet, and we've done just that. American had a great summer and has run the most reliable operation of the U.S. network carriers over the past 15 months. We're consistently profitable, and we've materially improved our balance sheet by reducing total debt by nearly $11 billion since 2021.

    謝謝,德文郡。我們對美國航空團隊在過去 18 個月中所取得的一切感到無比自豪。我們告訴過您,我們將專注於可靠性、盈利能力和加強我們的資產負債表,我們已經做到了。美國航空度過了一個愉快的夏天,在過去 15 個月裡一直是美國網路營運商中最可靠的營運商。我們持續獲利,並且自 2021 年以來,我們將總債務減少了近 110 億美元,從而顯著改善了我們的資產負債表。

  • We'll maintain that focus as we move through the fourth quarter and beyond. No matter the macroeconomic conditions we face or the variability of the operating environment, our team is intent on controlling what we can control over the short term and setting our company up for success over the long run. I'm incredibly excited by what the future holds for American.

    我們將在第四季度及以後保持這一重點。無論我們面臨的宏觀經濟狀況或經營環境如何變化,我們的團隊都致力於控制我們在短期內可以控制的事情,並為我們的公司長期成功做好準備。我對美國航空的未來感到無比興奮。

  • Looking ahead, we will be much more efficient as an airline. As an example, even today, we could be flying 5% more with the aircraft we already have in our fleet. We're eager to restore regional service to the underserved smaller markets that are still feeling the effects of the pandemic. We're building back and expanding our network in an efficient manner that will lead to stronger revenue production. Our travel rewards program, AAdvantage has already undergone significant change that is helping us grow higher-margin revenue at a greater rate than GDP, and we anticipate that to continue as we work to make our co-brand credit cards even more valuable to consumers and our partners.

    展望未來,我們作為一家航空公司將會更有效率。舉例來說,即使在今天,我們機隊現有飛機的飛行次數仍可增加 5%。我們渴望為仍受到疫情影響、服務不足的較小市場恢復區域服務。我們正在以有效的方式重建和擴展我們的網絡,這將帶來更強勁的收入生產。我們的旅遊獎勵計劃AAdvantage 已經發生了重大變化,幫助我們以高於GDP 的速度實現更高利潤的收入增長,我們預計這種情況將繼續下去,努力使我們的聯名信用卡對消費者和消費者來說更有價值。我們的夥伴。

  • On top of all that, we continue to innovate in creating a leading retailing experience, ensuring that anything we offer our customers can be shopped, purchased and serviced digitally. It all bodes well for American, our team members, customers, the communities we serve and especially our investors as we enter 2024 and look to 2025 and beyond.

    最重要的是,我們不斷創新,打造領先的零售體驗,確保我們為客戶提供的任何產品都可以數位化方式購物、購買和服務。當我們進入 2024 年並展望 2025 年及以後時,這對美國航空、我們的團隊成員、客戶、我們所服務的社區,尤其是我們的投資者來說都是好兆頭。

  • And with that, operator, please open the line for analyst questions.

    那麼,接線員,請打開分析師提問線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Helane Becker of TD Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I'm not used to getting the first question. So here's my question. As you think about your hubs. You've talked about Suez, talked in the past about New York and L.A., not really being profitable. Philadelphia seems to me to be a good connecting hub. It looks like you're putting a lot of international capacity in the market. So it brings up a couple of points. One is -- are there enough captains to handle what you're thinking of doing around the network, Charlotte and Dallas have gotten a lot of attention. What about some of your other markets, like Philly, Chicago, and maybe your coastal locations?

    我不習慣回答第一個問題。這是我的問題。當您考慮您的樞紐。你談到蘇伊士運河,過去談到紐約和洛杉磯,但並沒有真正獲利。在我看來,費城是一個很好的連結樞紐。看來你們正在向市場投入大量國際產能。所以它提出了幾點。一是——是否有足夠的隊長來處理你在網路上想做的事情,夏洛特和達拉斯已經引起了很多關注。你們的其他一些市場怎麼樣,像是費城、芝加哥,也許還有你們的沿海地區?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Helane, let me start Vasu can talk to you more about exactly where we're focusing our network. And if we need some real expertise, David Seymour can step in. I'll start with this. We're really pleased that we were able to enter into a new agreement with the APA and our pilots back in August. It's a deal that while it certainly comes with increased compensation and benefits and expense, but it also is something that puts us in a position where we can train our pilots in a much more efficient manner and more quickly. So one of the issues with getting our fleet fully back restored has been just our ability to move pilots through the school house.

    Helane,讓我開始吧,Vasu 可以與您詳細討論我們的網路重點關注的領域。如果我們需要一些真正的專業知識,大衛·西摩可以介入。我將從這個開始。我們非常高興能夠在 8 月與 APA 和我們的飛行員簽訂新協議。這項協議雖然肯定會增加薪資、福利和費用,但它也使我們能夠以更有效率、更快速的方式培訓飛行員。因此,讓我們的機隊完全恢復的問題之一是我們運送飛行員穿過學校的能力。

  • But right now, with some of the changes we've made in the contract, we have much more flexibility to actually grow the airline as we need. And so I don't see any issues with being able to support our fleet as we get into 2024 from a mainline perspective. On the regional side of the world, that is something that we're still working through. We've seen a lot of nice progress, but we're not fully restored. As we look into 2024, you'll see us do some things that I think that will hasten the progress to get our aircraft back up.

    但現在,透過我們在合約中所做的一些更改,我們擁有更大的靈活性來根據需要實際發展航空公司。因此,從主線角度來看,當我們進入 2024 年時,我認為支援我們的機隊不存在任何問題。在世界區域方面,我們仍在努力解決這個問題。我們已經看到了很多不錯的進展,但還沒有完全恢復。當我們展望 2024 年時,您會看到我們做了一些我認為將加快飛機恢復進度的事情。

  • And from a regional perspective, it's really not a pilot supply issue at this point. It's more of an issue of having first officers with the amount of time, 1,000 hours that they need to graduate from right seat to left seat. And I'm encouraged by what I see on that front. So Vasu, what about -- how we focus on the network?

    從區域角度來看,目前這確實不是試點供應的問題。更重要的是,副駕駛需要有 1,000 小時的時間從右座轉到左座。我對這方面的所見所聞感到鼓舞。那麼 Vasu,我們要如何關注網路呢?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Yes. Look, just building off of Robert's comments in the opening remarks. As we look forward, we think we have a lot of opportunity there. Our hubs and really all of our hubs, but especially our -- 4 of our largest and potentially highest capacity hubs in Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte and Miami, are located near what are starting to turn out to be the -- some of the most economically resilient markets there are. And we still have opportunity to go bring back more fleet, and we have infrastructure in those places to grow further. And as we see the future unfolding. To your point, Helane, we actually see a lot of opportunities to go and grow the performance of the coastal markets and Philadelphia and Chicago specifically in a way that's really complementary to that.

    是的。看,這只是羅伯特在開場白中的評論的基礎。展望未來,我們認為那裡有很多機會。我們的樞紐以及我們所有的樞紐,尤其是我們位於鳳凰城、達拉斯、夏洛特和邁阿密的 4 個最大且可能容量最高的樞紐,都位於即將成為的一些最重要樞紐附近。存在具有經濟彈性的市場。我們仍然有機會帶回更多的機隊,並且我們在這些地方擁有進一步發展的基礎設施。正如我們看到的未來​​一樣。 Helane,就您的觀點而言,我們實際上看到了很多機會,可以以真正互補的方式來提高沿海市場以及費城和芝加哥的業績。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just for my follow-up question on the domestic side. If I look at your numbers versus your 2 major competitors, you seem to be decelerating and I'm just kind of wondering if that's just a function of the size of the aircraft you're flying, not having as many premium seats? Or is it just the markets that you're in, although given what Vasu just said, it seems like the demand in those markets should still be pretty reasonable.

    好的。然後我想問國內方面的後續問題。如果我看看你們與兩個主要競爭對手的數據,你們似乎正在減速,我只是想知道這是否只是你們所飛行的飛機尺寸的函數,沒有那麼多的高級座位?或者只是您所在的市場,儘管考慮到 Vasu 剛才所說的,這些市場的需求似乎仍然相當合理。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Yes, Helane, actually, it's -- none of the above would be the answer to the question. Look, in the in this business of ours from one quarter to another, it's easy to draw a lot of prognostications which probably aren't there. And as we see it right now it is particularly weird time. One, because so many -- so much of the U.S. airline business is still recovering their networks and the networks that are being recovered are probably never been more divergent. Never more different competitively, but also never more different than what was there 3 or 4 or certainly 5 years ago.

    是的,海蘭,實際上,以上都不是問題的答案。看,在我們這個行業,從一個季度到另一個季度,很容易得出很多可能不存在的預測。正如我們現在所看到的,這是一個特別奇怪的時刻。第一,因為美國的許多航空公司仍在恢復其網絡,而正在恢復的網絡可能從未如此分散。與 3、4 年前甚至 5 年前相比,競爭從未如此不同,但也從未如此不同。

  • And so a little bit of what you see is that. And what I would actually say is we -- I'll echo the points I made and then Robert made in the opening bit. As we look forward, actually, we see a lot of opportunity. First of all, with our network. As we look out there, we serve 300 cities in North America in 200 of them, we have a network AAdvantage. And as we bring back more of the regional jets as we upgauge the mainline fleet, that's a real advantage for us because so many of our competitors really won't be there.

    所以你所看到的一點點就是這樣的。我實際上想說的是——我會重複我以及羅伯特在開場白中提出的觀點。事實上,當我們展望未來時,我們看到了許多機會。首先,我們的網路。據我們觀察,我們為北美 300 個城市提供服務,其中 200 個城市擁有 AAdvantage 網路。當我們升級乾線機隊時,我們會帶回更多的支線飛機,這對我們來說是一個真正的優勢,因為我們的許多競爭對手實際上不會在那裡。

  • Those -- the customers in those cities are about 50% of our customer base, but they produce about 60% of our revenues. They are the ones who are signing up for the program for AAdvantage and enrolling in the card. And then the other big opportunity we have really across our enterprise, but it will play out, most notably in the domestic system is really with AAdvantage, our travel rewards program.

    這些城市的客戶約占我們客戶群的 50%,但他們創造了我們約 60% 的收入。他們是註冊 AAdvantage 計劃並註冊該卡的人。然後,我們在整個企業中確實擁有另一個重大機會,但它將會發揮作用,尤其是在國內系統中,這實際上是我們的旅行獎勵計劃 AAdvantage。

  • As we see it, our co-branded credit card is the largest co-branded credit card in circulation. Our program is one, maybe travel programs in the business but if you look at us, we produced probably $400 million less in frequent flyer revenue what the industry leader does right now. So the quarter-to-quarter trends are just a function of things like the recovery. The real thing that we're seeing is the opportunity in the quarters and years ahead.

    我們認為,我們的聯名信用卡是流通量最大的聯名信用卡。我們的計劃就是其中之一,也許是行業中的旅行計劃,但如果你看看我們,我們的常旅客收入可能比行業領導者現在少了 4 億美元。因此,季度趨勢只是復甦等因素的函數。我們真正看到的是未來幾個季度和幾年的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農(David Vernon)。

  • David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

    David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

  • So Devon, can you help try to shape the cost outlook and the cadence by quarter for 2024 or at least talk to some of the headwinds are out there? I know it's going to be pretty noisy just given the way the labor costs have layered in. Can you kind of help us think about 2024 CASMx sort of headwinds in relation to the higher level of CASMx you're expecting now in fourth quarter?

    那麼 Devon,您能否幫助嘗試塑造 2024 年各季度的成本前景和節奏,或至少談談目前存在的一些不利因素?我知道考慮到勞動成本的分層方式,這將會非常吵鬧。您能否幫助我們考慮一下 2024 年 CASMx 與您目前預計第四季度 CASMx 更高水準相關的阻力?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. And maybe I'll just start with fourth quarter performance, and then we'll talk a little bit about 2024. And while we're not giving CASM guidance for the year, I can talk to you about some headwinds and tailwinds. So starting with fourth quarter of this year as Vasu said, these numbers do shift around a little bit from quarter-to-quarter, but our full year CASMx guide has been unchanged since the start of the year. And we knew at the start of the year, the fourth quarter was going to be our toughest comp.

    當然。也許我會從第四季度的業績開始,然後我們會討論一下 2024 年的情況。雖然我們沒有提供 CASM 今年的指導,但我可以與您討論一些不利因素和有利因素。因此,正如 Vasu 所說,從今年第四季度開始,這些數字確實逐季度略有變化,但我們的全年 CASMx 指南自年初以來一直沒有變化。我們在今年年初就知道,第四季將是我們最艱難的時期。

  • Our capacity starts to decelerate, our capacity growth starts to decelerate a little bit as we entered the fourth quarter. We also had a couple of onetime credits that we got in the fourth quarter of 2022 that aren't happening for us this year. And then there was a shift of some expenses from the third quarter into the fourth quarter, adding a little bit more pressure. But we're still really pleased with our full year results, hitting the guide or the midpoint of the guide that we had at the very start of the year. As we look out to 2024, the headwinds where you'd expect. It's largely around salaries and benefits.

    我們的產能開始減速,進入第四季後,我們的產能成長開始略有放緩。我們也獲得了一些在 2022 年第四季獲得的一次性積分,但今年我們沒有獲得這些積分。然後一些費用從第三季度轉移到第四季度,增加了一點壓力。但我們仍然對全年業績感到非常滿意,達到了年初的指南或指南的中點。展望 2024 年,逆風將如你所料。主要是圍繞著工資和福利。

  • We have open contracts with our flight attendants and our passenger service reservations groups. If we are able to achieve deals that match industry leaders for those work groups, it will add about a point of CASM pressure year-over-year. We also just have regular increases for other labor groups that are happening next year. But the tailwinds of what Robert talked about and what we're excited about, actually working towards full utilization of our fleet. In this operation, we've been running has been incredible for the last year, 1.5 years.

    我們與空服人員和乘客服務預訂團隊簽訂了公開合約。如果我們能夠達成與這些工作小組的產業領導者相符的交易,那麼 CASM 的壓力將逐年增加。我們明年還會定期增加其他勞工團體的薪資。但羅伯特所說的以及我們感到興奮的事情的順風車,實際上正在努力充分利用我們的機隊。在這項行動中,我們過去一年(1.5 年)的表現令人難以置信。

  • Now we have a real opportunity to go ahead and do some optimization work around this operation. So we do have some headwinds on salaries and benefits. We have some real nice tailwinds as well into 2024. And we'll be able to provide more guidance on what CASM will look like on the January call.

    現在我們有一個真正的機會繼續圍繞此操作進行一些優化工作。因此,我們在薪資和福利方面確實存在一些阻力。到 2024 年,我們也將迎來一些真正好的順風車。我們將能夠在 1 月的電話會議上就 CASM 的情況提供更多指導。

  • David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

    David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then Robert or Vasu, maybe there's a lot of talk right now in the industry about how segmentation premium products are changing the structure of the industry maybe to the detriment of domestic-oriented or discount carriers. Can you add your thoughts on this topic here? And talk a little bit about how you see American playing in this evolving structure. We didn't hear a lot about premium in any of the prepared remarks today. I'm just wondering how you guys are thinking about what some people are calling is a seismic change in the industry dynamic.

    好的。然後羅伯特或瓦蘇,也許現在業界有很多關於細分優質產品如何改變行業結構的討論,這可能會損害國內或折扣航空公司。您可以在這裡添加您對這個主題的想法嗎?並談談您如何看待美國人在這種不斷發展的結構中的表現。在今天準備好的演講中,我們沒有聽到太多關於溢價的內容。我只是想知道你們如何看待一些人所說的行業動態的巨大變化。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Sure. This is Vasu. I can answer that. In fact, I'd be very happy to answer it. Look, what we see and we think the real causal thing that's happening is the customer itself as opposed to a fair product or a cabin of service. And what we've certainly seen and Robert alluded to it since 2019 AAdvantage -- our AAdvantage customers are really driving the revenue production of the company, and that's manifesting itself in a range of ways. So versus '19, our membership is up 50%. Almost 2/3 of our revenue, certainly in this last quarter, came from AAdvantage customers.

    當然。這是瓦蘇。我可以回答這個問題。事實上,我很樂意回答這個問題。看,我們所看到的,我們認為正在發生的真正因果關係是客戶本身,而不是公平的產品或服務艙。自 2019 年 AAdvantage 以來,我們確實看到了這一點,羅伯特也提到了這一點——我們的 AAdvantage 客戶確實在推動公司的收入生產,這透過多種方式體現出來。因此,與 19 年相比,我們的會員數量增加了 50%。我們近 2/3 的營收(當然是上個季度)來自 AAdvantage 客戶。

  • And what we're finding with them is that those customers are proving to be a much more resilient pool of demand that indeed are willing to engage in behaviors that aren't just shopping for the fastest schedule or the cheapest price. We see that play out in a lot of different ways. One is premium cabin performance, where our premium bare products revenue was up 7% from AAdvantage customers in keeping with our overall seat growth.

    我們在他們身上發現的是,這些客戶被證明是一個更有彈性的需求池,他們確實願意參與不僅僅是為了最快的時間表或最便宜的價格而購物的行為。我們看到這種情況以多種不同的方式發生。一是優質客艙性能,我們來自 AAdvantage 客戶的優質裸產品收入成長了 7%,與我們整體座位數的成長保持一致。

  • Two, we see that remuneration on our credit card is up about 25% from these customers. And then importantly, we find that these customers disproportionately want to shop with us directly. About 85% of all the AAdvantage member revenue in the system is coming through our direct channels. So we see the calls upping, and that's why it was in our remarks is -- what's really happening is for our AAdvantage members, there's a real desire to travel, and they're coming to us because they want a great network and a program that rewards them for using it delivered reliably over and over and over again.

    第二,我們發現這些客戶的信用卡報酬上漲了約 25%。重要的是,我們發現這些客戶不成比例地希望直接在我們這裡購物。系統中約 85% 的 AAdvantage 會員收入來自我們的直接管道。因此,我們看到電話不斷增加,這就是我們評論中的原因 - 真正發生的是我們的 AAdvantage 會員,他們真正渴望旅行,他們來找我們是因為他們想要一個強大的網絡和計劃這會獎勵他們一次又一次地使用可靠交付的資訊。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • And David, I just want to add one thing to that. It's -- look, we're going to be part of and also a driver of premium revenue growth. So one of the things I think is noteworthy our premium seating is going to grow by 43% between now and 2026. And that's as a result of bringing on the new XLR and reconfiguring our 777-300s and actually taking a look at even some of the domestic fleet as well, where I know that we'll be adding more first-class product or at least reconfiguring to that end.

    大衛,我只想補充一件事。看,我們將成為保費收入成長的一部分,也是保費收入成長的驅動力。因此,我認為值得注意的一件事是,從現在到2026 年,我們的高級座椅數量將增加43%。這是由於引入了新的XLR 並重新配置了我們的777-300,實際上甚至考慮了一些國內機隊也是如此,我知道我們將增加更多一流的產品,或至少為此進行重新配置。

  • And on that same front, we're really pleased with our regional aircraft. On that front, you take a look at the E175 and they have fantastic cabins that are every bid is nice and appreciated by customers is anything we fly on the mainline side. So I look forward to participating and driving what's going to be going on in terms of premium products.

    在同一方面,我們對我們的支線飛機非常滿意。在這方面,你看看 E175,他們有很棒的客艙,每次出價都很好,並且我們在幹線方面飛行的任何東西都受到客戶的讚賞。因此,我期待參與並推動優質產品的發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora of Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • Devon, maybe just digging into the 2024 costs a little bit. Given the changes in the pilot contracts, I know kind of the new profit sharing now runs through the salaries and wages line. How should we think about wage growth next year in relation to kind of the mid-single-digit capacity?

    德文郡,也許光是深入研究 2024 年就需要一點成本。鑑於試點合約的變化,我知道新的利潤分享現在貫穿了工資和工資線。我們該如何看待明年薪資成長與中個位數產能的關係?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • We'll give more guidance on 2024 as we did. Salaries and benefits is an area we're going to see some pressure. As I just mentioned, we do have this open agreement with our flight attendants and our passenger service and reservations agents that, we hope to get closed, and we hope to be able to match industry leading contracts there, which will drive about 1 point of growth. And as we get into the year, there will be some lumpiness on year-over-year comps. In the first quarter, of 2023, we didn't have an accrual for our pilot agreement.

    我們將像以前一樣對 2024 年提供更多指導。薪資和福利是我們會面臨一些壓力的領域。正如我剛才提到的,我們確實與我們的空服員、乘客服務和預訂代理達成了這項開放協議,我們希望能夠完成該協議,並且我們希望能夠在那裡匹配行業領先的合同,這將推動約1 個百分點的成長。生長。當我們進入這一年時,年比比較將會出現一些波動。 2023 年第一季度,我們的試點協議沒有應計費用。

  • So we'll see a little more cost pressure in the first quarter. But as we get into the last 3 quarters of the year, that cost pressure is going to ease. And then these efficiencies that we've been talking about, I think, are going to add some nice tailwinds as we go through the year. So let us get back to you in January with a little bit more detail, but that's kind of where we're seeing it right now.

    因此,我們將在第一季看到更多的成本壓力。但隨著進入今年最後三個季度,成本壓力將會緩解。我認為,我們一直在談論的這些效率將為我們今年的發展帶來一些良好的推動力。因此,讓我們在一月份給您回复,提供更多詳細信息,但這就是我們現在所看到的情況。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • Okay. And then, Vasu can you speak a little bit more in terms of what you're seeing on the corporate side, particularly as it relates to both large and small corporates, particularly. I know you've made some pretty big changes with your corporate sales force. Just curious if you've seen any sort of unexpected share shifts or anything like that as we move into this more seasonally stronger time period for corporate travel.

    好的。然後,瓦蘇,您能否多談談您在企業方面所看到的情況,特別是因為它與大型和小型企業有關。我知道您對公司銷售人員做出了一些相當大的改變。只是好奇,當我們進入商務旅行季節性更強的時期時,您是否看到任何意外的份額變化或類似的情況。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Thank you, Andrew. It's another question, which I know is on people's minds, I'm happy to address that, and I'll do it in this fashion. We have made a number of changes with our selling and distribution strategy. The purpose of which is very simple. Our customers have been telling us for a very long time now that they want it so that anything that we offer them can be shopped, sold and serviced digitally. And we've been seeing that customer sentiment for a really long time. And that's what we're out to serve. And our strategy is this simple. In order to go make that happen, we need to distribute our product exclusively through the Internet.

    謝謝你,安德魯。這是另一個問題,我知道這是人們關心的問題,我很高興解決這個問題,我會以這種方式來做。我們對銷售和分銷策略做出了一些改變。其目的非常簡單。我們的客戶長期以來一直告訴我們,他們希望我們為他們提供的任何東西都可以數位化購買、銷售和服務。很長一段時間以來,我們一直在觀察客戶的情緒。這就是我們要服務的。我們的策略就是這麼簡單。為了實現這一目標,我們需要透過互聯網專門分銷我們的產品。

  • And that's what you're seeing from us. We're shifting content bare products, schedules, things like that, out of legacy technology where we can't provide customers the kind of shopping and servicing experience they expect and we're putting it through technologies that can. And on that journey, we've certainly invited all of our retailers to come along with it, but that is a different world than what was there before. And what we've seen before is really encouraging actually. In the quarter, our total business revenues were up 2%.

    這就是您從我們身上看到的。我們正在將純粹的產品、時間表等內容從傳統技術中轉移出來,在傳統技術中,我們無法為客戶提供他們期望的購物和服務體驗,而我們正在透過可以提供這種體驗的技術來實現這些體驗。在這段旅程中,我們當然邀請了所有零售商一起參與,但那是一個與以前不同的世界。我們之前所看到的其實非常令人鼓舞。本季度,我們的總業務收入成長了 2%。

  • We actually performed better year-over-year among contracted corporations than we had in a number of months prior to it. But very importantly, our cost of sale is down 13%. So we're finding that we're able to generate more revenues do less cost of sale, which is very encouraging to us. And like I said, as we go forward, we intend to continue the momentum that we've got. We certainly invite any retailing partner to join us along the journey.

    實際上,我們在簽約公司中的同比表現比之前幾個月要好。但非常重要的是,我們的銷售成本下降了 13%。因此,我們發現我們能夠以更少的銷售成本產生更多的收入,這對我們來說非常令人鼓舞。正如我所說,隨著我們前進,我們打算繼續保持現有的勢頭。我們當然邀請任何零售合作夥伴加入我們的旅程。

  • And in fact, most recently, we launched a new business program called AAdvantage Business and AAdvantage is very much the platform upon which we will build all of our commercial programs. But through that -- through AAdvantaged business companies of all sizes can access our content in a way that's cheaper simpler, better servicing and our way is more awarding for travelers. We'll accelerate their status. So we're actually really encouraged by what we've seen, encouraged by its revenue production and look forward to continuing the momentum.

    事實上,最近,我們推出了一個名為 AAdvantage Business 的新業務計劃,而 AAdvantage 正是我們建立所有商業計劃的平台。但透過這種方式,透過 AAdvantged 各種規模的商業公司都可以以更便宜、更簡單、更好的服務的方式存取我們的內容,並且我們的方式為旅客提供更多獎勵。我們將加速他們的地位。因此,我們實際上對我們所看到的情況感到鼓舞,對其收入產生感到鼓舞,並期待繼續保持這一勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格(Michael Linenberg)。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Vasu, can I just -- I know you sort of called out what the revenue for premium for AAdvantage members was up year-over-year. If I look at in its entirety, what year-over-year was the gain in premium product revenue. And then when we think about sort of the split -- where are you as a percent of your passenger revenue, total passenger revenue premium versus non-premium? Even rough numbers would be fine.

    Vasu,我可以 - 我知道您提到了 AAdvantage 會員的保費收入同比增長情況。如果我從整體來看,優質產品收入的年增率是多少。然後,當我們考慮某種分配時-保費與非保費佔乘客收入、總乘客收入的百分比是多少?即使是粗略的數字也沒關係。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Sorry, Mike. Shame on me, my microphone wasn't on. But I'll repeat. I'll answer the first question first, in the premium cabin revenues are up across our system, about 6% to 7% by AAdvantage members whose revenue is up about 7%. Non members are up about 5%. And then to your question about customer base. Look, one of the things that we've certainly noticed is probably more importantly than segmenting based on bare products is by the customers themselves. And so what we do is we look at customers who are buying non-premium products. Those are fares that are not eligible for discounts, mileage and things like that are lowest selling products and we look at it for customers who are non-advantaged customers, who tend to be our most transitory customers.

    對不起,麥克。真可惜,我的麥克風沒有打開。但我會重複一遍。我首先回答第一個問題,我們系統中的高級客艙收入有所上升,其中 AAdvantage 會員的收入增長了約 7%,約佔 6% 至 7%。非會員上漲約5%。然後是關於客戶群的問題。看,我們肯定注意到的一件事可能比基於裸產品的細分更重要的是客戶自己。因此,我們所做的就是專注於購買非優質產品的客戶。這些票價不符合折扣、里程等最低銷售產品的條件,我們會針對非優勢客戶(往往是我們最短暫的客戶)來考慮這些票價。

  • And what we find is transitory customers buying our lowest selling fares, it's about 30% of our system revenue the other 70% is customers who are buying premium quality fares. And that number is disproportionately weighted to AAdvantaged customers.

    我們發現,購買我們最低銷售票價的臨時客戶大約占我們系統收入的 30%,另外 70% 是購買優質票價的客戶。而且這個數字對 AAdvantages 客戶的影響不成比例。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just my second question on -- I saw that you're applying for -- to fly from JFK, Haneda. And I'm curious because sort of post NEA, I got the sense that maybe you were going to be sort of maybe I don't know if downsizing New York is the right thing, but the fact is wide bodies are scarce and for everyone, and that would take 2 frames. And do you already have JAL in that market with the codeshare. So what's the rationale behind that?

    好的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題——我看到你正在申請——從羽田甘迺迪機場起飛。我很好奇,因為在 NEA 之後,我有一種感覺,也許你會有點,也許我不知道縮小紐約的規模是否正確,但事實是寬體很稀缺,而且適合每個人,這需要 2 幀。您是否已經在該市場上擁有日航的代碼共享服務?那麼這背後的理由是什麼呢?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Yes. Thanks, Mike. I'll answer through the lens of New York, which I know it's probably on a lot of our investors' minds. And I'll answer the Haneda question as part of it. The time pre-COVID and certainly prior to the NEA, American Airlines had a really fundamental problem in New York, which is we were losing our relevance to New York City originating customers. Every year, we had declining originating share. Our advantage enrollments were declining year after year, simply because we didn't have a slot portfolio to compete with the 2 largest ones.

    是的。謝謝,麥克。我將從紐約的角度來回答,我知道這可能是我們許多投資者的想法。我將回答羽田的問題作為其中的一部分。在新冠疫情之前,當然在 NEA 之前,美國航空在紐約遇到了一個非常根本的問題,那就是我們正在失去與紐約市起始客戶的聯繫。每年,我們的原始份額都在下降。我們的優勢註冊人數逐年下降,只是因為我們沒有足夠的老虎機組合來與兩家最大的老虎機競爭。

  • And that was the reasons behind doing the NEA. Now in these last several weeks and months, what we've noticed is actually, the New York originating customer has changed what they demand. Same-day business trips are down a lot. There's way fewer people originating New York, who are looking to take day trips to Boston or Chicago or Detroit, but that New York City customer is much more interested in flying long haul, internationally long haul to the West Coast market in Florida. That's a thing that our slot portfolio is much more built to do. And in the last few weeks since the NEA has been terminated. Actually, what we've seen is that our originating share is stable.

    這就是進行 NEA 的原因。在過去的幾週和幾個月裡,我們注意到,來自紐約的客戶實際上已經改變了他們的需求。當日商務旅行大幅減少。從紐約出發,想要前往波士頓、芝加哥或底特律進行一日遊的人要少得多,但紐約市的客戶對飛往佛羅裡達州西海岸市場的長途、國際長途航班更感興趣。我們的老虎機產品組合就是為了做到這一點而設計的。自 NEA 終止以來的最後幾週。事實上,我們看到的是我們的原始份額是穩定的。

  • New York City continue to be the #1 market in our system, both for AAdvantage enrollments and for credit card sign-ups and penetration. So we're encouraged by that, and you see that. The last thing I'll mention about it is through our global partnerships, we're able to offer a thing in New York, which is very unique, both in our T8 facility and also being able to go and operate our major partners, major complexes, whether that's Heathrow or Haneda or Doha for that matter.

    無論是 AAdvantage 註冊人數還是信用卡註冊和滲透率,紐約市仍然是我們系統中排名第一的市場。所以我們對此感到鼓舞,你也看到了。我要提到的最後一件事是透過我們的全球合作夥伴關係,我們能夠在紐約提供非常獨特的東西,無論是在我們的 T8 設施中,還是能夠去運營我們的主要合作夥伴,主要綜合體,無論是希思羅機場、羽田機場或多哈。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Devon, I just wanted to dig in a bit on the cost performance to date. You came in close to a point below the low end of your 3Q range. I know you mentioned some timing shift but you're also sticking with your prior midpoint for full year CASMx despite the extra accrual for pilot retro pay since you last updated that full year cost outlook. I guess what has been going better than expected and then can you just remind us what you had originally baked in for the open flight tenant contracts in the second half. Does that have any impact on 3Q?

    德文郡,我只是想深入了解迄今為止的性價比。您的業績接近低於第三季範圍低端的一個點。我知道您提到了一些時間變化,但您也堅持之前的全年 CASMx 中點,儘管自您上次更新全年成本展望以來,飛行員復古工資有額外的應計費用。我想事情進展得比預期要好,然後您能提醒我們您最初為下半年的開放航班租戶合約準備了什麼嗎?這對第三季有影響嗎?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the question, Catie. Yes, we do have it's largely timing and operational performance with higher ASMs is what benefited us in the third quarter. In our prior guidance, we didn't have anything in the third quarter for our open labor agreements outside of the pilots. We did have some in the fourth quarter, and we still have something modest in the fourth quarter just given the time it would take to reach and ratify an agreement. But generally speaking, everything this year has come in very much in line with what our initial guidance was, which is why for the full year, we're still right around that 3% number.

    謝謝你的提問,凱蒂。是的,我們確實在很大程度上是時間安排和營運績效以及更高的 ASM 使我們在第三季受益。在我們先前的指導中,我們在第三季沒有任何試點之外的開放勞工協議。我們在第四季度確實取得了一些成果,考慮到達成和批准協議所需的時間,我們在第四季度仍然取得了一些成果。但總的來說,今年的一切都非常符合我們最初的指導,這就是為什麼我們全年仍然在 3% 左右的數字。

  • We've seen a little bit of pressure on certain line items. We've gotten some benefits from others. But overall, it's largely in line with our expectations. And like just generally speaking, we are pretty good at forecasting out expenses. And I think during the COVID year that became a little bit more challenging. But in 2023, we feel pretty good about our ability to forecast and deliver results.

    我們發現某些訂單項目面臨一些壓力。我們從別人那裡得到了一些好處。但整體來說,基本上符合我們的預期。一般來說,我們非常擅長預測費用。我認為在新冠疫情期間,這變得更具挑戰性。但到 2023 年,我們對自己的預測和交付結果的能力感到非常滿意。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. That's great. And then maybe one for Vasu. Between the third quarter and second quarter, you experienced decel in RASM on year-over-year in 2019, I totally understand there's so many moving pieces now as the network recovers and the shape of your network has changed a bit over the years. But your fourth quarter guidance implies things will stabilize on a year-over-year basis. Can you just walk us through what's driving that stabilization.

    知道了。那太棒了。然後也許是給瓦蘇的。在第三季和第二季之間,您在 2019 年經歷了 RASM 同比減速,我完全理解隨著網路的恢復,現在有很多變化,而且這些年來您的網路形狀已經發生了一些變化。但您的第四季度指導意味著情況將同比穩定。您能否向我們介紹一下是什麼推動了這種穩定?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • And for my clarity, you mean the quarter-to-quarter stabilization?

    為清楚起見,您指的是季度至季度的穩定?

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Right. Just comparing the year-over-year to each other.

    正確的。只是將同比情況進行比較。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Sure. I will do my best to do. There's a few things that are changing in our system right now between one quarter to the next that has that effect. In Q3, what we find in terms of how we brought the network back, a lot of what we were flying were off time periods like off-peak flights. As we get into Q4, that starts to stabilize a little bit more. We're gaining a lot more regional supportability into the fourth quarter. And so a little bit of what you see there are just shifting year-over-year trends based on how we brought the airline back and then where the airline is oriented around flying.

    當然。我會盡力去做。現在,我們的系統中在每個季度到下一個季度之間都會發生一些變化,從而產生這種影響。在第三季度,我們發現,就如何恢復網路而言,我們的許多航班都是在非尖峰時段飛行。當我們進入第四季度時,情況開始變得更加穩定。進入第四季度,我們獲得了更多的地區支持。因此,您所看到的一些內容只是根據我們如何讓航空公司回歸以及航空公司圍繞飛行的定位而發生逐年變化的趨勢。

  • In the third quarter, especially in the trough seasons of August and September, there are some strange year-over-year comps where the Northeast was performing better than markets in the Sun Belt when we get into Q4 that's when the Sun Belt and short-haul NCLA start to change. And you see that in our schedules. We have, I think, our biggest Miami operation in our history there. So a lot of what you see there is less a function of something fundamental, but some really unique quarter-to-quarter recovery trends.

    在第三季度,特別是在 8 月和 9 月的低谷季節,出現了一些奇怪的同比情況,當我們進入第四季度時,東北地區的表現優於陽光地帶的市場,當時陽光地帶和短期 - NCLA開始改變。你在我們的日程安排中看到了這一點。我認為,我們在那裡擁有我們歷史上最大的邁阿密業務。因此,您看到的許多內容並不是基本面的函數,而是一些真正獨特的季度復甦趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克(Jamie Baker)。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Vasu, an NEA question. We're obviously tracking some of the rebalancing between JFK and Philadelphia. I see that 787 captains in Philly, that number is moving up quite a bit. It looks like JetBlue will continue to operate a portion of your slots through the end of IATA's summer season next year. I reckon, so part of my question is, am I right on that? But more importantly, I recognize networks are fluid. But when should we think about Philadelphia and New York sort of reaching a steady state? Is that a process that will wrap in time for next summer? Or should we think of the NEA unwind at lasting longer than that?

    Vasu,NEA 問題。顯然,我們正在追蹤甘迺迪機場和費城機場之間的一些重新平衡。我看到費城有 787 名隊長,這個數字已經上升了不少。看來捷藍航空將在明年 IATA 夏季結束之前繼續運營您的部分航班時刻。我想,所以我的部分問題是,我的觀點正確嗎?但更重要的是,我認識到網路是流動的。但我們什麼時候該考慮費城和紐約達到穩定狀態呢?這個過程會在明年夏天結束嗎?或者我們應該認為 NEA 的放鬆會持續更長時間?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Jamie, thanks for the question. I guess we've all been around this business for a while in steady state. It is always a very prognosticate. But I will say this, the role of these hubs is quite complementary. And we're seeing it more and more for my comments earlier, where New York has a lot of New York originating customers when it goes international. Domestic, it's a mix of New York originating and as we call it smoke city, like outside of hubs originating in the New York. And Philadelphia is our largest connection complex in the Transatlantic.

    傑米,謝謝你的提問。我想我們在這個行業已經穩定地從事了一段時間了。這總是一件非常有預測性的事情。但我要說的是,這些樞紐的作用是相當互補的。我們越來越多地看到我之前的評論,紐約在走向國際時有很多來自紐約的客戶。在國內,它是起源於紐約的混合體,我們稱之為煙城,就像起源於紐約的樞紐之外。費城是我們在跨大西洋地區最大的連結綜合體。

  • And so a lot of what you see is just it comes back to what Robert mentioned. We're seeing actually a lot of traction in international and Transatlantic better than we have before. We're seeing it from both of these markets. For the first time since our Atlantic joint venture was created, we're pretty consistently the unit revenue leader amongst the group which has been very unique in a long time coming. And so we think that these 2 hubs are very complementary. We see it every day that they're very complementary as we bring in the XLR that enables us to do some really unique things in both of those markets.

    所以你看到的很多內容都回到了羅伯特提到的內容。事實上,我們在國際和跨大西洋航線上看到了比以前更好的吸引力。我們從這兩個市場都看到了這一點。自從我們的大西洋合資企業成立以來,我們第一次在集團中始終保持單位收入領先地位,這在很長一段時間內是非常獨特的。因此我們認為這兩個中心是非常互補的。我們每天都看到它們非常互補,因為我們引入了 XLR,使我們能夠在這兩個市場上做一些真正獨特的事情。

  • And as we do things like improve the configuration on the 777-300 or bring in more 787-9s that further augments that. So that's what you see. And look, in the world of network planning, we can move things around based on where the demand is. We'll continue to do it. There will be some of that rebalancing. And certainly, as we go into next year, we do see a lot of opportunity to bulk up in Philadelphia as we get more supportability back as the regional comes back as we take wide-body deliveries.

    當我們改進 777-300 的配置或引進更多 787-9 時,會進一步增強這一點。這就是你所看到的。看,在網路規劃領域,我們可以根據需求進行調整。我們將繼續這樣做。將會有一些重新平衡。當然,當我們進入明年時,我們確實看到了很多在費城擴大規模的機會,因為隨著我們接受寬體飛機交付,隨著區域性的回歸,我們獲得了更多的支持能力。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. And then second question for Devon a clarification, the $3.5 billion CapEx figures that you gave or figure that you gave before, that was aircraft only, correct. So all in we should be dialing in something closer to $4.5 billion going forward? I'm assuming I got that right. And if so, do you expect to generate cash next year at current fuel prices.

    好的。很公平。然後是德文郡需要澄清的第二個問題,您給出的或之前給出的 35 億美元資本支出數字僅包括飛機,正確。那麼我們未來應該投入接近 45 億美元的資金嗎?我想我是對的。如果是這樣,您預計明年以當前的燃油價格能夠產生現金嗎?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So just 2 separate things. So for 2024, our total CapEx is between $3 billion and $3.3 billion. Long term, beyond 2024, you're right that the $3.5 billion number I gave was just aircraft CapEx. So for '24, I think our capital requirements are such that we certainly have the ability to generate free cash flow, and we're absolutely in a different position than some of our peers, just given where they are at in terms of fleet renewal program versus where we're at. We spent over $30 billion from 2014 to 2019 on our fleet renewal. Now we're in a nice spot where capital requirements are slightly less, and it does give us the ability to produce free cash flow going forward like we did in this year.

    是的。所以只有兩件事。因此,到 2024 年,我們的總資本支出在 30 億美元到 33 億美元之間。從長遠來看,2024 年後,你說得對,我給的 35 億美元只是飛機資本支出。因此,對於 24 年,我認為我們的資本要求是這樣的,我們當然有能力產生自由現金流,而且我們與一些同行的處境絕對不同,只是考慮到他們在機隊更新方面的情況計劃與我們所處的位置。 2014 年至 2019 年,我們在機隊更新上花費了超過 300 億美元。現在我們處於一個很好的位置,資本要求略低,這確實使我們有能力像今年一樣產生自由現金流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Appreciate the time. Kind of an industry question, but we'll go ahead and ask it of you. Just with respect to 4Q RASM guidance down 6.5% at the midpoint, which is actually a little bit better than what we were modeling and the cost pressures you were outlining into next year. What needs to go right to get that unit revenue back to positive territory? I mean the 5% growth that you're outlining may or may not be crazy relative to GDP. If we're just thinking about it year-over-year, right, 5% doesn't sound crazy. But if we think about where your margins are exiting here, the exit rate on your margins, any thoughts about how we get back to positive RASM, which it appears you'll need to stabilize your margins here? I appreciate the thoughts.

    珍惜時間。這是一個行業問題,但我們會繼續向您詢問。僅就第四季度 RASM 指導而言,中點下降了 6.5%,這實際上比我們建模的情況以及您概述的明年成本壓力要好一些。需要採取什麼措施才能使單位收入恢復正值?我的意思是,你所概述的 5% 的增長相對於 GDP 來說可能瘋狂也可能不瘋狂。如果我們只是逐年考慮,那麼 5% 聽起來並不瘋狂。但是,如果我們考慮您的利潤在哪裡退出,您的利潤的退出率,對我們如何回到正的 RASM 的任何想法,您似乎需要穩定您的利潤?我很欣賞這些想法。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Thanks for the question. Look, the answer is both very simple and consistent with the stuff we've been saying. What we get to do is the stuff we have to do is within our control. It's bringing back our regional jet network, which creates a lot of revenue benefits for us and a lot of unique markets for our customers. And two, it's growing more -- growing the revenue from AAdvantage, both through our brand of credit cards and how we go issue and enable the redemption of miles. Both of those things are tops on our plans for next year. We're excited to go and execute on that. And we see a lot of upside.

    謝謝你的提問。看,答案非常簡單,而且與我們所說的內容一致。我們要做的事情是我們必須做的事情,並且在我們的控制範圍內。它恢復了我們的支線噴射機網絡,這為我們創造了大量的收入優勢,並為我們的客戶創造了許多獨特的市場。第二,它的成長更多——透過我們的信用卡品牌以及我們如何發行和兌換里程來增加 AAdvantage 的收入。這兩件事都是我們明年計畫的重中之重。我們很高興能夠執行該計劃。我們看到了很多好處。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • I guess just maybe thinking sequentially like how patient will you be with sort of breakeven-ish negative margins? Like is that a 1 or 2 quarter phenomenon? Is it a multiyear phenomenon?

    我想也許只是按順序思考,您對損益兩平的負利潤有多大耐心?這是第一季還是第二季的現象嗎?這是多年現象嗎?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Vasu, I'll take this. Duane, thanks. Look, we are going to be incredibly focused on making sure that we deploy assets where we can make money. The kind of things that we're talking about and focusing on our strengths are where we see that happening. And look, I think that we -- to the contrary, I think we carry momentum in. A lot of the work that we've done this year that Vasu has been at the center of in terms of making sure that we have the best network and we can sell and service it digitally is all groundwork for next year. And so as we take a look at not only the regional network, further enhancing premium product, what we will intend to do with AAdvantage and less variable revenue, I think that all plays into a lot of strength.

    瓦蘇,這個我要了。杜安,謝謝。看,我們將非常專注於確保我們將資產部署在可以賺錢的地方。我們正在談論並專注於我們的優勢的事情是我們看到這種情況發生的地方。瞧,我認為我們——相反,我認為我們勢頭強勁。今年我們所做的許多工作,瓦蘇一直處於中心地位,以確保我們擁有最好的網絡,我們可以以數字方式銷售和服務,這是明年的所有基礎工作。因此,當我們不僅關注區域網路、進一步增強優質產品、我們打算利用 AAdvantage 和較少的可變收入做什麼時,我認為所有這些都發揮了很大的作用。

  • And on top of that, look, we're in the midst of recovery still and so as we go from quarter-to-quarter, we know that there are things that we could have done differently over the past summer that we're going to make sure that we're addressing in terms of where we're flying and how we're doing it. But we will have very little tolerance for what you would consider kind of investment or development flying. We're going to fly where we make money.

    最重要的是,看,我們仍然處於復甦之中,因此,當我們逐季度進行時,我們知道在過去的夏天我們可以採取不同的做法確保我們解決飛行地點和飛行方式問題。但我們對您所認為的飛行投資或開發行為的容忍度非常低。我們要飛到能賺錢的地方。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • No, it's not an easy question, but I appreciate the thoughts.

    不,這不是一個簡單的問題,但我很欣賞你的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham of Melius Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Just your has been pretty stable relative to the industry. And a lot of the constraints that we've talked about this year, it seems like they're going to carry forward next year if math get a little bit worse. And so at the same time, the domestic competitors are really struggling. So I'm just curious on how you may take advantage of that situation next year if those teams continue to play out? Or are you just happy with the current execution of what you're doing right now?

    只是你相對於產業來說一直相當穩定。我們今年討論過的許多限制,如果數學變得更糟,它們似乎將在明年繼續存在。同時,國內競爭對手也確實處境艱困。所以我只是好奇如果這些球隊繼續比賽的話明年你會如何利用這種情況?或者您只是對目前正在做的事情的執行感到滿意?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • I'll start, Conor and Vasu can join in. Look, when we talk about the kind of capacity that we are going to be putting back, we've described it over and over again. I think that, first off, we've got assets that on hand today that provide some of that benefit. We're certainly going to make sure that, that gets deployed in a fashion that is productive. I do think that there are constraints out there. that continue on. And whether that's ATC or it's some of the supply chain, both engines and air framers, I think that, that kind of stuff is we're going to have to work through.

    我開始,康納和瓦蘇可以加入。看,當我們談論我們將要恢復的容量時,我們已經一遍又一遍地描述了它。我認為,首先,我們現有的資產可以提供一些好處。我們當然會確保以高效的方式進行部署。我確實認為存在一些限制。繼續下去。無論是空中交通管制還是供應鏈的某些部分,包括引擎和飛機製造商,我認為,這類問題是我們必須解決的。

  • And then on top of that, look, we're all getting through the pilot shortfalls as well. So there's ups and downs to that. But overall, you will see us -- we're going to play our game. And that means find our Sun Belt hubs strengthening the rest of our network through getting capacity back up in the air and doing all the things that Vasu has talked about in terms of taking advantage of AAdvantage and our co-brand deals and then also modern retailing.

    最重要的是,看,我們也都在克服試點的不足。所以這有起有落。但總的來說,你會看到我們——我們將玩我們的遊戲。這意味著我們的陽光地帶樞紐透過恢復空中運力並做 Vasu 談到的所有事情來加強我們網路的其餘部分,利用 AAdvantage 和我們的聯合品牌交易,然後還有現代零售。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then you've executed pretty remarkably on your plan, but your margins maybe to Helane's earlier question, just continuing to lag Delta United, your operation has been better, all that stuff, and I get it. But when you think about the opportunity ahead to close that gap, is it more a revenue equation or cost? I think historically, American's talked a little bit about the revenue gap, but it seems to be that there's more of a cost opportunity here. Just curious on your thoughts there.

    好的。然後你已經非常出色地執行了你的計劃,但你的利潤率可能符合 Helane 之前的問題,只是繼續落後於達美聯隊,你的運營更好了,所有這些,我明白了。但是,當您考慮縮小這一差距的機會時,您會發現這更多的是收入方程式還是成本?我認為從歷史上看,美國航空曾談論過一些收入差距,但似乎這裡有更多的成本機會。只是好奇你的想法。

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Conor, it's Devon. I'll take that. And certainly, this isn't something we look at a quarterly basis, but we do spend a lot of time on benchmarking. And if you want to talk about benchmarking margins, we do think it's important to look at it and look at it on a 12-month basis and the right margin to be using when you're comparing us to these other network peers, is EBITDAR because it just takes out financing decisions, so aircraft rent versus depreciation and interest expense, and it takes out capital structure, which we just know right now, we have a difference, but that's an area we also know we're going to improve on going forward. So let's talk about that.

    康納,我是德文郡。我會接受的。當然,這不是我們每季都會關注的事情,但我們確實花了很多時間進行基準測試。如果你想談論基準利潤率,我們確實認為重要的是要以 12 個月為基礎來審視它,當你將我們與其他網絡同行進行比較時,正確的利潤率是 EBITDAR因為它只是去掉了融資決策,所以飛機租金與折舊和利息費用,並且它去掉了資本結構,我們現在才知道,我們有差異,但這是我們也知道我們將改進的一個領域向前走。那我們來談談這個吧。

  • On EBITDAR margins, I think we stack up really well with our competitors. If you look at 12 months ended third quarter, I think we're right on top of one of them and maybe there's a small gap to the other. But I think our progress versus 2019 has been really good. And the opportunity ahead is on both sides. I do think we're going to be able to produce capacity at lower unit costs going forward or at least decelerate this unit cost growth. And I do think we have top line opportunities as well.

    就 EBITDAR 利潤率而言,我認為我們與競爭對手的差距非常大。如果你看看截至第三季的 12 個月,我認為我們正處於其中一個的頂部,也許與另一個有一個小差距。但我認為與 2019 年相比,我們的進步非常好。未來的機會是雙方的。我確實認為我們未來將能夠以較低的單位成本生產產能,或至少減緩單位成本的成長。我確實認為我們也有一線機會。

  • And then the only other thing I'd close on is, well, I think we're in pretty nice shape on margins. And there's opportunity ahead. When it comes to free cash flow, I think we are unique amongst our network peers with our capital requirements going forward, and we should be able to outproduce on free cash flow for most of this decade.

    然後我要結束的唯一一件事是,嗯,我認為我們的利潤狀況非常好。前方還有機會。就自由現金流而言,我認為我們在網路同行中是獨一無二的,我們的資本要求不斷提高,並且我們應該能夠在這十年的大部分時間裡超越自由現金流。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Devon. And Conor, I'll just underscore one more time. Please take a look at the past year. There's a lot of variability in quarters in terms of whose network is aligned to do better one to the next. And also, a lot of noise in the numbers in terms of just building back the airlines from the pandemic. We feel really confident about how we're seeing '24 especially on a competitive basis against our peers.

    謝謝,德文郡。康納,我再強調一次。請回顧過去的一年。各季度的網路之間存在很大差異,以確保每個季度都能做得更好。此外,在重建航空公司免受疫情影響方面,數字上也有很多噪音。我們對 24 年的表現非常有信心,尤其是在與同業競爭的基礎上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的薩維賽斯 (Savi Syth)。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • I was kind of curious if you could provide a little color on the international indices. I know you mentioned in Transatlantic is really strong. It seems like LatAm is a little bit weak in what that is. And along those lines, when you're talking about going into your strength, do you mean next year, kind of most of the growth will be domestic and not as much in international?

    我很好奇您能否提供一些有關國際指數的資訊。我知道你提到的《跨大西洋》真的很強大。拉美似乎在這方面有點薄弱。沿著這些思路,當你談論發揮自己的優勢時,你的意思是說明年大部分成長將來自國內,而不是國際?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Yes. Savi, this is Vasu. I can take that, and I'll take it in 2 parts. First, just around the world, yes, we see really strong long-haul revenue trends, regardless of the entity, long-haul Atlantic, long-haul Latin America, long-haul Pacific and as I mentioned earlier, versus any prior period of time, whether last year 2019 or really anything as far back as it goes we've seen uniquely strong revenue performance. But what we're encouraged by is that our revenue performance, though it's not where we yet wish it to be, has never grown at a faster rate than some of our international partners.

    是的。薩維,這是瓦蘇。我可以接受,我會分成兩個部分。首先,在全球範圍內,是的,我們看到了非常強勁的長途收入趨勢,無論實體如何,大西洋長途、拉丁美洲長途、太平洋長途,正如我之前提到的,與之前任何時期相比,無論是去年還是2019 年,還是迄今為止的任何事情,我們都看到了異常強勁的收入表現。但令我們感到鼓舞的是,我們的營收表現雖然還沒有達到我們希望的水平,但成長速度卻從未超過我們的一些國際合作夥伴。

  • And for many of them, fly into North America is the very best thing that they do. So we're encouraged by the journey we've been on we see more opportunity ahead as we do simple things. Configure airplanes smartly, get low-cost jets like the XLR. And so our future in international is one which is well within our control and very practical. It doesn't involve any great prognostications of how the world would change. And then as far as next year goes, look, a lot of our overall entity mix is largely to be similar, where we're going to be about a 70%, 75% short-haul carrier and a 20% to 25% long-haul carrier. But those areas would grow at a similar rate, which is why the mix stays on.

    對他們中的許多人來說,飛往北美是他們所做的最好的事情。因此,我們對我們所經歷的旅程感到鼓舞,當我們做簡單的事情時,我們看到了更多的機會。巧妙配置飛機,獲得 XLR 等低成本噴射機。因此,我們在國際舞台上的未來完全在我們的掌控之中,而且非常務實。它不涉及對世界將如何變化的任何重大預測。就明年而言,我們的整體實體組合在很大程度上是相似的,我們將分別擁有 70%、75% 的短途航空公司和 20% 至 25% 的長程航空公司- 運輸承運人。但這些領域將以類似的速度成長,這就是為什麼混合保持不變的原因。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's helpful. And if I might, just next year's growth should we assume a lot more kind of regional like a mix next year just as that regional entity comes back versus mainline as we kind of think through maybe what the pressures on CASM might be, but maybe the kind of the benefits to RASM?

    這很有幫助。如果可以的話,我們是否應該假設明年的成長會更加像明年的混合,就像區域實體相對於主線回歸一樣,因為我們會思考 CASM 可能面臨的壓力,但也許RASM 有何好處?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. It's probably a little early to get into too much detail. We do expect to build back the regional network. We're also looking at better utilization on the mainline side. So we'll give a little more detail as we get into January.

    是的。現在討論太多細節可能還為時過早。我們確實希望重建區域網路。我們也正在考慮主線方面更好的利用率。因此,進入一月份後,我們將提供更多詳細資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Daniel McKenzie。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to see if I could put a bigger spotlight on the distribution strategy. So I guess, Vasu, building on the prior remarks around direct distribution, what percent of American's revenue has now shifted to direct channels versus, say, a year ago? How big a change has that been what is it that American can do today that it couldn't do before? And then finally, if you can just help us frame what that revenue upside means, not just today, but more importantly, for those investors that invest longer term, what that revenue contribution could look like, say, 3 years from now?

    我想看看是否可以更加關注分銷策略。所以我猜,Vasu,根據之前關於直接分銷的言論,與一年前相比,美國航空的收入現在有多少百分比轉移到直接管道?美國航空今天能做到以前做不到的事情,這帶來了多大的改變?最後,如果您能幫助我們了解收入成長意味著什麼,不僅僅是現在,更重要的是,對於那些進行長期投資的投資者來說,收入貢獻可能會是什麼樣子,比如說,3年後?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Dan, I appreciate the question, and I'll do that be your answer sequentially, too. Look, first and foremost, like I said, we're very encouraged by the changes that we've got there, largely because they're simply responsive to the customers. And we're retailing our product the way customers expect, which is really just through the Internet. And unsurprisingly, customers have responded.

    丹,我很欣賞這個問題,我也會依序回答你。首先,正如我所說,我們對所發生的變化感到非常鼓舞,很大程度上是因為它們只是對客戶做出了回應。我們按照客戶期望的方式零售我們的產品,這實際上只是透過網路。不出所料,客戶做出了回應。

  • So what we saw as we were going through COVID, was already without American Airlines making any strategic changes, we went from about selling 50% direct to selling about 60% direct and right now, what we're in taking in terms of revenue is actually about 80% going through, as we call it, Internet-based distribution, of which about 70 of those 80 points is going through our true directchannels.com and app and the balance coming through new distribution technologies.

    因此,我們在經歷新冠疫情期間看到的是,美國航空在沒有任何戰略改變的情況下,我們從直接銷售 50% 到直接銷售 60% 左右,現在,我們的收入是實際上,大約80 % 是透過我們所謂的基於互聯網的分銷,其中80 個點中的大約70 個是透過我們真正的directchannels.com 和應用程序,其餘的則透過新的分銷技術進行。

  • In fact, our Internet-based travel agency technologies is now a bigger source of bookings than any of the legacy global distribution systems are. So we're encouraged by that, but also very clearly not that surprised. I mean customers want that experience, which is the second part of your question. The very simple benefit is through what we do, we can go and create more offers for customers that they value. We've seen this, and we continue to see this at a number of customers who come to aa.com or the app shopping for the cheapest fare that we have end up selling up, like roughly 70% of the customers who come to our websites actually come looking for the lowest fare, but by something higher than that.

    事實上,我們基於互聯網的旅行社技術現在比任何傳統的全球分銷系統都成為更大的預訂來源。所以我們對此感到鼓舞,但也很明顯並不感到驚訝。我的意思是客戶想要這種體驗,這是你問題的第二部分。非常簡單的好處是,透過我們所做的事情,我們可以為客戶創造更多他們重視的優惠。我們已經看到了這一點,我們繼續在許多訪問 aa.com 或應用程式購買我們最終出售的最便宜票價的客戶中看到這一點,例如大約 70% 訪問我們的客戶網站實際上是在尋找最低票價,但價格要高於此。

  • And through these new tools, we can go and offer them a whole lot more that creates value for them. We can differentiate things like how they're able to redeem miles for different fare products or even they're able to earn miles for different fare products.

    透過這些新工具,我們可以為他們提供更多的東西,為他們創造價值。我們可以區分一些事情,例如他們如何能夠兌換不同票價產品的里程,甚至他們如何能夠透過不同票價產品賺取哩程。

  • And then the other thing that I would say is, which is we're finding to be very, very impactful. And as we shift to Internet-based distribution, our servicing becomes a whole lot simpler. So it's hard to do what 3 years out looks like, but I can talk about the next several weeks and quarters. And what you will see from us are things where we do much more consciously differentiate. All the content we offer will be through Internet-based technologies.

    我要說的另一件事是,我們發現它非常非常有影響力。當我們轉向基於互聯網的分銷時,我們的服務變得更加簡單。所以很難做到三年後的樣子,但我可以談論接下來的幾週和幾個季度。您將從我們身上看到的是,我們更有意識地做出差異化的事情。我們提供的所有內容都將透過基於互聯網的技術進行。

  • We will look to do things like offering more miles for buying premium cabin, for shopping through our direct channels, for using our credit card. We will create more redemption opportunities for those. But then also, what will be in place by the end of this year is that 100% of what we sell will be able to be serviced digitally but only through Internet-based technologies. That's the thing which is hugely impactful to our customers. For any of you, if you're traveling on American Airlines, I encourage you if you're making changes, please use the app to do so. I think you'll find it to be a much better experience in times past and an industry-leading one as well.

    我們將採取一些措施,例如為購買高級艙位、透過我們的直接管道購物以及使用我們的信用卡提供更多里程。我們將為這些人創造更多的贖回機會。但到今年年底,我們銷售的產品將 100% 能夠提供數位化服務,但只能透過基於互聯網的技術。這對我們的客戶影響巨大。對於你們中的任何人,如果您乘坐美國航空旅行,我鼓勵您在進行更改時使用該應用程式進行更改。我想您會發現它在過去是一種更好的體驗,也是業界領先的體驗。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Very good. Okay. Second question here for Devon. I know Robert shared that 75% of the debt is at a fixed rate. But just given the higher for longer interest rate regime today, how is that changing the way you think about the 3-year balance sheet targets and goals? And can American get to an investment-grade rating at some point and what might a realistic time frame look like to get there?

    非常好。好的。這是德文郡的第二個問題。我知道羅伯特說 75% 的債務是固定利率的。但鑑於目前利率制度長期較高,這會如何改變您對 3 年資產負債表目標和目標的看法?美國航空能否在某個時候獲得投資等級?實現這一目標的現實時間框架是怎樣的?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, I'll just start with right now, our focus on the balance sheet has been really on 2025. And our stated goal is that we are going to reduce $15 billion in total debt by the end of 2025. We still expect to do that at this point. And we think if we get there, that gets us to a BB credit. Beyond 2025, we'll see where it goes. But right now, we're focused on the next couple of years.

    好吧,我現在就開始吧,我們對資產負債表的關注實際上是在 2025 年。我們既定的目標是到 2025 年底我們將減少 150 億美元的總債務。我們仍然期望此時。我們認為,如果我們做到了這一點,我們就能獲得 BB 積分。 2025 年之後,我們將拭​​目以待。但現在,我們的重點是未來幾年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mary Schlangenstein of Bloomberg News.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • I had 2 quick questions. First is, when do you expect to start getting the XLR? My second question is, you mentioned that domestic demand is steady, but I wanted to see if you could be more specific on that. Like how it's increasing into the fourth quarter toward the winter holidays. Also wondering if on international demand, if you've seen the level of demand that's normally like a summer peak level, has that continued past October and through the end of the year like some of the other international carriers have said?

    我有兩個簡單的問題。首先,您預計什麼時候開始購買 XLR?第二個問題,你提到國內需求穩定,我想問你能否說得更具體。就像第四季寒假期間的情況一樣。也想知道在國際需求方面,您是否看到了通常類似於夏季高峰水平的需求水平,這種情況是否像其他一些國際航空公司所說的那樣一直持續到 10 月並持續到今年年底?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • It's Devon. I'll just start on the XLR and then hand over to Vasu. We expect our first XLR delivery to come late next year, and then the order stream starts to really pick up in 2025 and 2026.

    這是德文郡。我將從 XLR 開始,然後交給 Vasu。我們預計第一批 XLR 將於明年稍後交付,然後訂單流量將在 2025 年和 2026 年開始真正回升。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Yes. And Mary, I think that probably the best way to answer your question is kind of taking a long view look at it. And as we look at just overall demand in our system versus 2019, we're seeing like revenue production, which could be 15%, 20% higher than what was there before. That's across the industry, but for American Airlines specifically. So when you extract yourself from like the year-over-year, quarter-to-quarter changes, what you do see is that demand for travel is materially larger.

    是的。瑪麗,我認為回答你的問題的最好方法可能是從長遠的角度來看待它。當我們比較 2019 年系統的整體需求時,我們看到收入產出可能比以前高 15%、20%。這是整個行業的情況,但對於美國航空來說尤其如此。因此,當您從同比、逐季度的變化中抽身出來時,您確實會看到旅行需求大幅增加。

  • And the airline capacity is starting to catch up to what that is, but that's our reasons for saying that we see a lot of -- we see domestic on a similar demand trend line as what's been out there, and we certainly see that as we're anticipating characteristically strong peak periods.

    航空公司的運力正開始趕上實際情況,但這就是我們說我們看到很多的原因——我們看到國內需求趨勢線與外面的需求趨勢線相似,我們當然也看到了這一點我們預計將會出現典型的高峰期。

  • And then as far as long-haul international goes, yes, we do continue to see strength in Q4. A lot of it is -- domestic was a marketplace that for customers opened up a lot sooner and a lot more completely and comprehensive than what many of these. Many countries outside of the U.S. did. So we're still in a period where some of that demand is coming back. And we, as many are beneficiaries of that.

    就長途國際航班而言,是的,我們確實在第四季度繼續看到強勁勢頭。其中許多是——國內市場對客戶開放的時間比其中許多市場早得多,而且更全面和全面。美國以外的許多國家都這麼做了。因此,我們仍處於部分需求回升的時期。我們和許多人一樣都是受益者。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • Can you just be more specific in terms of the upcoming demand domestically for the holiday period? I mean really, I don't think there's a lot of interest now in what the comparisons are to 2019. Just are you seeing higher demand going into the holidays that you normally would? Is it slower when you say steady, that doesn't give a necessarily very good impression in terms of what your holiday demand is.

    您能否更具體地介紹一下假期期間國內即將到來的需求?我的意思是說,我認為現在人們對與 2019 年的比較沒有太多興趣。只是您是否看到節日期間的需求比平常更高?當您說穩定時,速度是否較慢,這並不一定會給您的假期需求帶來很好的印象。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Well, look, Mary, in our holidays, we routinely have far more demand than we have seats for whether you want to compare it to 2022, 2021, 2019 or probably 2009. So we're in a place right now where actually our holidays are very lightly booked because we know any time we create more availability in the holidays, the seats go very quickly. So we are anticipating continued like year-over-year improvement in holiday performance. What we have been seeing in things like the days around the big peak periods also are stronger on a year-over-year booking basis, too. But still, we are in a place where the entire month of November is less than 40% booked for American Airlines. And that's deliberate because we're anticipating really a lot of the continued strength around peaks.

    嗯,看,瑪麗,在我們的假期裡,我們的需求通常遠遠超過我們的座位,無論你想將其與2022 年、2021 年、2019 年還是可能2009 年進行比較。所以我們現在所處的位置實際上是我們的假期預訂量非常少,因為我們知道,每當我們在假期中創造更多空位時,座位都會很快消失。因此,我們預計假日表現將繼續同比改善。我們在高峰期前後的日子所看到的情況與去年同期相比也更加強勁。但美國航空 11 月整個月的預訂率仍低於 40%。這是經過深思熟慮的,因為我們預計高峰周圍會持續強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Alison Sider of Wall Street Journal.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德(Alison Sider)。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • Yes, I was curious if the latest spirit issues with Boeing are impacting American at all if you're expecting any kind of delays and if those will affect schedules and plans at all?

    是的,我很好奇波音公司最新的精神問題是否會對美國航空產生影響,如果您預計會出現任何形式的延誤,以及這些是否會影響時間表和計劃?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Ali, thanks for that. Look, we work closely with Boeing. And I have to tell you that the Boeing team has been really, really forthcoming and cooperative with us. Certainly, they have some issues with supply chain, and they're working with us on our order book. We probably anticipate seeing a little bit of slippage as we go into next year but it's not something that is going to have a material impact on our capacity, and we're working very closely with Boeing on that. So thanks for that question.

    阿里,謝謝你。看,我們與波音公司密切合作。我必須告訴你,波音團隊非常非常樂於與我們合作。當然,他們在供應鏈方面存在一些問題,他們正在與我們合作處理我們的訂單。我們可能會預計明年會出現一些下滑,但這不會對我們的產能產生實質影響,我們正在與波音公司密切合作。謝謝你提出這個問題。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • And then I guess on pilots, some other airlines and unions have talked about kind of like an unusual maybe reluctance for pilots -- first off, there's upgrade to captain, maybe more quality of life issues coming up. Are you guys seeing that at all?

    然後我想在飛行員方面,其他一些航空公司和工會已經談到了飛行員的一種不尋常的可能不情願——首先,升級為機長,也許會出現更多的生活品質問題。你們看到了嗎?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • I'll ask David Seymour, our Chief Operating Officer, to comment.

    我將請我們的營運長 David Seymour 發表評論。

  • David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

    David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

  • Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Ali. I think you're probably focusing on the regional operations where there -- first off, I think probably the bigger constraint we have is them getting the hours to be able to upgrade to captain. But we're not seeing any reluctance really overall that first officers don't want to upgrade to captain.

    是的。不,我很欣賞這個問題,阿里。我想你可能會關注那裡的區域行動——首先,我認為我們面臨的更大的限制可能是他們有時間升級為隊長。但總的來說,我們並沒有看到副駕駛不願意升級為機長的情況。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. And David, remind me, for same aircraft type, when we see first officers upgrading from the FO position to captain position, the competition increases roughly 35%, 40%.

    是的。大衛,提醒我,對於同一機型,當我們看到副機長從 FO 職位升級到機長職位時,競爭增加了約 35%、40%。

  • David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

    David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

  • That's correct. Yes.

    這是正確的。是的。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. So there's a strong incentive to become a captain at American Airlines.

    是的。因此,成為美國航空公司機長的動力非常強烈。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Alexandra Skores of Dallas Morning News.

    下一個問題來自《達拉斯晨報》的亞歷珊卓·斯科雷斯。

  • Alexandra Skores

    Alexandra Skores

  • I wanted to ask about the inflation and how that's impacting American customers? And then my second question is what you're seeing in that same vein, looking ahead to the winter travel season?

    我想問通貨膨脹以及這對美國消費者有何影響?然後我的第二個問題是,展望冬季旅行季節,您會看到什麼?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Sorry, we didn't hear you super well in the room. Would you say emissions.

    抱歉,我們在房間裡沒聽清楚您的聲音。你說排放。

  • Alexandra Skores

    Alexandra Skores

  • Inflation, sorry.

    通貨膨脹,對不起。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Inflation. Got it. Got it. Okay. Yes, look, right now, I'll say this. Air travel -- as I've said on a couple of these calls, air travel remains an amazing bargain, though indeed, the price of gas or groceries or clothing or anything is up quite a lot. Air travel is not up nearly as much. In fact, I think today, in the fall, you can fly to Las Vegas for less than $50. And my guess is just about any place you go to eat, it would cost you more to eat there. So we have yet to see something where inflation is a thing that we could go point to as a causal headwind to demand.

    通貨膨脹。知道了。知道了。好的。是的,聽著,現在我就這麼說。航空旅行——正如我在幾次電話中所說的那樣,航空旅行仍然是一個驚人的便宜,儘管事實上,汽油、雜貨、衣服或任何東西的價格上漲了很多。航空旅行的成長幅度卻沒有那麼大。事實上,我認為今天秋天,您可以以不到 50 美元的價格飛往拉斯維加斯。我的猜測是,幾乎任何你去吃飯的地方,在那裡吃飯都會花費更多。因此,我們還沒有看到通貨膨脹可以成為需求的因果阻力的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Leslie Josephs of CNBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯 (Leslie Josephs)。

  • Leslie Josephs

    Leslie Josephs

  • We've been seeing a lot of discounts, a lot of double-digit fares from you guys midweek anytime. Can you talk a little bit about how much have you had to discount this fall kind of coming off of the peak summer season to fill planes? And how confident are you in this breakeven guide just considering where fuel is now and whether you can drum up fare enough to cover that.

    我們在周中隨時都看到很多折扣,很多兩位數的票價。您能談談今年秋天在夏季旺季結束後,您必須打折多少才能裝滿飛機嗎?只要考慮一下現在的燃料在哪裡以及您是否可以籌集到足夠的費用來支付費用,您對這份盈虧平衡指南有多大信心。

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • I'll answer the first part of it by just simply saying that we don't really comment on fare activity or sale activity for any number of reasons. But I think others can talk a little bit more about kind of margin performance.

    我將簡單地回答第一部分,因為出於多種原因,我們不會真正評論票價活動或銷售活動。但我認為其他人可以更多地談論利潤率表現。

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, our fourth quarter guide, we've done it the same way we've done for all the other quarters and throughout the year. We have confidence in our revenue guide. We provide a range on it. We have a lot of confidence in our cost guide and fuel remains volatile, but we did put a range on that as well. So as it sits today, we feel really good about what we have out there for our Q4 guide.

    是的,我們的第四季指南,我們的做法與其他所有季度和全年的做法相同。我們對我們的收入指南充滿信心。我們提供了一個範圍。我們對我們的成本指南充滿信心,而且燃料仍然不穩定,但我們也確實設定了一個範圍。因此,就今天而言,我們對第四季度指南的內容感到非常滿意。

  • Leslie Josephs

    Leslie Josephs

  • Okay. And then, I mean, I guess if you can't comment on fares, but are you losing any pricing power broadly compared with last year or even compared with competitors now?

    好的。然後,我的意思是,我想如果你不能評論票價,但與去年甚至現在的競爭對手相比,你是否普遍失去了任何定價能力?

  • Vasu Raja

    Vasu Raja

  • Well, that's probably an inadvertent way to comment on fares. And look, what we continue to see is a lot of the same overall demand trend sequentially day-to-day, week-to-week, et cetera. And as I mentioned, air travel remains an amazing bargain for customers. And customers, as we've seen for several years, are keen to travel and traveling at a greater rate than what they were in 2019.

    嗯,這可能是評論票價的一種無意的方式。看,我們繼續看到的是許多相同的整體需求趨勢,逐日、逐週等等。正如我所提到的,航空旅行對顧客來說仍然是一個驚人的便宜。正如我們幾年來所看到的,客戶熱衷於旅行,而且旅行的速度比 2019 年更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I would now like to turn the conference back to Robert Isom for closing remarks.

    現在我想請羅伯特·伊索姆(Robert Isom)致閉幕詞。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Latif, and thank you, everyone. I'll close with this. There's obviously a lot of short-term sentiment in thinking out there. And we understand why. There's a lot going on in the world today. That said, the airline business is one that absolutely requires long-term thinking as we navigate -- even as we navigate shorter-term variability. The aircraft we buy today are going to be around for 20 years plus. The leases we signed at airports and the hundreds of millions and billions of dollars that we commit to airports. Those are leases that are 10 years plus in financings that go out a lot longer than that.

    謝謝拉蒂夫,也謝謝大家。我將以此結束。顯然,人們的思考中有很多短期情緒。我們明白為什麼。當今世界發生了很多事。也就是說,航空業絕對需要我們在經營時進行長期思考——即使我們在應對短期變化時也是如此。我們今天購買的飛機將使用 20 多年。我們在機場簽署的租約以及我們向機場承諾的數億和數十億美元。這些租賃的融資期限為 10 年以上,期限比這要長得多。

  • And even the labor contracts that we sign are multiple years, 4 and 5 years. So we have to take that into account as we look to the future. And all of us at American have worked tirelessly to set the airline up for success in this short term, yet long-term world. So as we look to 2024 and beyond, look, we have an enviable fleet. We've gone out and spent $30 billion prior to the pandemic to put ourselves in a position where we are entering into capital spending that is lasting. And we're doing it in an environment where others are facing rising interest rates and issues with suppliers.

    甚至我們簽訂的勞動合約也是多年的、四年的、五年的。因此,我們在展望未來時必須考慮到這一點。美國航空的所有人都在不懈地努力,讓該航空公司在這個短期但長期的世界中取得成功。因此,當我們展望 2024 年及以後時,我們擁有一支令人羨慕的機隊。在疫情爆發之前,我們已經花了 300 億美元,以確保我們能夠進行持久的資本支出。我們是在其他人面臨利率上升和供應商問題的環境中做到這一點的。

  • So while there's a heading the other way, we're set up for success. And we look forward to putting all of our assets back to full utilization and we know we can optimize how we're running the airline as we go forward. And all of that is why we build the best network and work with our customers to make sure that they are rewarded for using it. So we've got a great baseline, and I'm very confident in the future of travel and demand. And I can't wait to talk to you more as we go out to the next quarters in 2024 about where American is headed and the story we have to tell. So thank you very much.

    因此,雖然有相反的方向,但我們已經為成功做好了準備。我們期待著將所有資產重新充分利用,我們知道,隨著我們的前進,我們可以優化航空公司的運作方式。所有這一切就是我們建立最佳網絡並與客戶合作以確保他們因使用網路而獲得回報的原因。所以我們有一個很好的基線,我對旅行和需求的未來非常有信心。當我們進入 2024 年的下一個季度時,我迫不及待地想與您更多地討論美國航空的發展方向以及我們必須講述的故事。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。