美國航空 (AAL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

美國航空公佈了 2023 年第四季和全年的強勁財務業績。該公司第四季度調整後稅前利潤為 2.57 億美元,全年實現約 25 億美元。在強勁需求和旅行獎勵計劃收入的推動下,他們還實現了約 530 億美元的創紀錄收入。

美國航空公司優先考慮可靠性、獲利能力和責任感。他們的重點是勞工協議和減少債務。該公司計劃在 2024 年底前將總債務減少約 130 億美元,到 2025 年底減少約 150 億美元。

展望未來,美國航空預計 2024 年調整後每股攤薄收益為 2.25 美元至 3.25 美元。不過,他們預計第一季調整後每股虧損為 0.15 美元至 0.35 美元。

該公司還專注於卓越營運、提供卓越服務和改善客戶體驗。他們的目標是過渡到基於互聯網的技術,並透過數位管道增加分銷。

美國航空對從不同製造商購買飛機持開放態度,並將在即將到來的投資者日討論他們的未來計劃。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to American Airlines Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加美國航空集團 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

    演講者演講結束後,將進行問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to hand the call over to Scott Long, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Scott Long。請繼續。

  • Scott Long - MD of IR

    Scott Long - MD of IR

  • Thank you, Latif. Good morning, and welcome to the American Airlines Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

    謝謝你,拉蒂夫。早上好,歡迎參加美國航空集團 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

  • On the call with prepared remarks, we have our CEO, Robert Isom; and our CFO, Devon May. A number of our other senior executives are also in the room this morning for the Q&A session. Robert will start the call with an overview of our performance, and Devon will follow with details of the fourth quarter and full year in addition to outlining our operating plans and outlook going forward.

    我們的執行長羅伯特·伊索姆 (Robert Isom) 在電話會議上發表了事先準備好的演講。以及我們的財務長德文梅 (Devon May)。我們的其他一些高階主管今天早上也在房間裡參加問答環節。羅伯特將首先概述我們的業績,德文郡將介紹第四季度和全年的詳細信息,並概述我們的營運計劃和未來展望。

  • After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for analyst questions, followed by questions from the media. To get in as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

    在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將開始徵求分析師提問,然後是媒體提問。為了盡可能地提出問題,請將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。

  • Before we begin today, we must state that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including statements concerning future revenues, costs, forecast of capacity and fleet plans. These statements represent our predictions and expectations of future events, but numerous risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ from those projected.

    在今天開始之前,我們必須聲明,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,包括有關未來收入、成本、運力預測和機隊計劃的陳述。這些陳述代表了我們對未來事件的預測和預期,但許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測不同。

  • Information about some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in our earnings press release that was issued this morning as well as our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. In addition, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures this morning, which exclude the impact of unusual items. A reconciliation of those numbers to the GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. A webcast of this call will also be archived on our website.

    有關其中一些風險和不確定性的信息可以在我們今天早上發布的收益新聞稿以及截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的季度的 10-Q 表格中找到。此外,我們將討論某些非 GAAP今天上午的財務指標排除了異常項目的影響。這些數字與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在收益新聞稿中,您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到該新聞稿。本次電話會議的網路廣播也將存檔在我們的網站上。

  • The information we are giving you on the call this morning is as of today's date, and we undertake no obligation to update the information subsequently. Thank you for your interest and for joining us this morning. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Robert Isom.

    我們今天早上在電話中向您提供的資訊截至今天,我們不承擔隨後更新資訊的義務。感謝您的關注並今天早上加入我們。接下來,我會將電話轉給我們的執行長羅伯特·伊索姆 (Robert Isom)。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝斯科特,大家早安。

  • Today, American reported an adjusted pretax profit of $257 million for the fourth quarter and approximately $2.5 billion for the full year, driven by the strength of our network, continued demand for our product and fantastic execution by our team.

    今天,美國航空公佈第四季度調整後稅前利潤為2.57 億美元,全年調整後利潤約為25 億美元,這得益於我們強大的網絡、對我們產品的持續需求以及我們團隊出色的執行力。

  • I want to thank the American Airlines team for their incredible work to care for our customers and deliver a 2023 that we're proud of. We're running at historically strong operation, driving incremental revenue through our commercial initiatives, managing our costs, producing record free cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet through debt reduction.

    我要感謝美國航空團隊為照顧我們的客戶並交付我們引以為傲的 2023 年所做的出色工作。我們的營運狀況歷來強勁,透過商業計劃推動收入增量,管理成本,產生創紀錄的自由現金流,並透過減少債務來加強我們的資產負債表。

  • This year, we'll continue to prioritize reliability, profitability and accountability while building an even more efficient and resilient airline. We also remain focused on taking care of our team and continue to make progress on our labor agreements. Our commitment in negotiations has been consistent. Reach deals as quickly as possible and ensure our team is paid as well as their industry peers.

    今年,我們將繼續優先考慮可靠性、獲利能力和責任感,同時打造一家更有效率、更有彈性的航空公司。我們也繼續專注於照顧我們的團隊,並繼續在勞工協議方面取得進展。我們在談判中的承諾是一致的。盡快達成交易,並確保我們的團隊與業內同行一樣獲得報酬。

  • We finalized a new contract with the APA in the third quarter last year. A few weeks ago, we did the same for our customer service team represented by the CWA-IBT, giving team members increased pay and quality of life improvements. We continue to negotiate with the APFA, with the shared goal of reaching a deal that will pay our flight attendants at the top of the industry.

    去年第三季我們與 APA 敲定了一份新合約。幾週前,我們為以 CWA-IBT 為代表的客戶服務團隊做了同樣的事情,為團隊成員提供了更高的薪水並改善了生活品質。我們將繼續與 APFA 進行談判,共同目標是達成協議,向我們的空服人員支付業界頂尖的薪資。

  • Now let's talk more about our financial results. We produced record full year revenues of approximately $53 billion, driven by strong demand for our product and record revenue from our travel rewards program. Demand remains strong and we have seen robust bookings to start the year as travel trends have begun to normalize across entities. We're also very encouraged by the trends we're seeing in business travel.

    現在讓我們多談談我們的財務表現。在對我們產品的強勁需求以及我們的旅行獎勵計劃創紀錄的收入的推動下,我們創造了創紀錄的全年收入,約為 530 億美元。需求依然強勁,隨著各實體的旅遊趨勢開始正常化,我們看到年初的預訂量強勁。我們看到的商務旅遊趨勢也讓我們深受鼓舞。

  • Domestic revenues from business travel ended the fourth quarter at approximately 90% of 2019 levels. We're excited about the continued rollout of the AAdvantage business program, and we continue to see strength among small- and medium-sized businesses. We see further potential revenue upside as we restore our hubs domestically, enabled in part by the recovery in regional supportability.

    截至第四季度,國內商務旅行收入約為 2019 年水準的 90%。我們對 AAdvantage 業務計劃的持續推出感到興奮,並且我們繼續看到中小型企業的實力。隨著我們在國內恢復樞紐,我們看到了進一步的潛在收入成長,部分原因是區域支援能力的恢復。

  • This year, we expect our system capacity growth to be balanced between domestic and international. More than ever, our revenue growth is fueled by a growing number of advantage customers who acquired our co-brand credit cards in record numbers in 2023. AAdvantage customers represent both our greatest source of value and greatest opportunity going forward. In 2023, 2/3 of our revenue came from AAdvantage customers. These customers also account for 70% of our upsell loyalty and partnership revenue.

    今年,我們預計我們的系統容量成長將在國內和國際之間保持平衡。我們的營收成長比以往任何時候都更加受到越來越多的優勢客戶的推動,這些客戶在2023 年購買了我們的聯名信用卡,數量創下了紀錄。AAdvantage 客戶既代表了我們最大的價值來源,也代表了我們未來最大的機會。 2023 年,我們 2/3 的收入來自 AAdvantage 客戶。這些客戶也占我們追加銷售忠誠度和合作夥伴收入的 70%。

  • Over the past year, we have made changes to our distribution strategy to give customers direct improved access to our best products and enable American to provide better customer service to the individual traveler. We're very encouraged by the results. Customers who shop directly with us have a more enjoyable experience and are 11 points more likely to recommend American than those shopping in traditional outlets. They are purchasing more valuable content and doing so at lower expense. In 2023, our revenue was 15% higher than 2019, while our selling expenses were 10% lower. Our fleet, network and travel rewards program will continue to drive significant value moving forward. Our limited near-term capital requirements will position us to continue to generate free cash flow.

    在過去的一年裡,我們改變了分銷策略,讓客戶能夠直接更好地獲得我們最好的產品,並使美國航空能夠為個人旅客提供更好的客戶服務。我們對結果感到非常鼓舞。直接在我們這裡購物的顧客會獲得更愉快的體驗,並且比在傳統商店購物的顧客推薦美國航空的可能性高出 11 個百分點。他們正在以更低的費用購買更有價值的內容。 2023 年,我們的營收比 2019 年成長 15%,而銷售費用則下降 10%。我們的機隊、網路和旅行獎勵計劃將繼續推動巨大的價值向前發展。我們有限的短期資本需求將使我們能夠繼續產生自由現金流。

  • Turning now to the operation. The American Airlines team continues to achieve industry-leading operational results. We produced our best ever performance in the fourth quarter and over the full year, including a record on-time departure rate and completion factor during the busy holiday season. American ranked first among the U.S. network carriers in Mainline and Regional completion factor in 2023 with our lowest number of cancellations for any year since the merger. All of this led to record likelihood to recommend scores in the fourth quarter and full year.

    現在轉向操作。美國航空團隊持續取得業界領先的營運績效。我們在第四季度和全年取得了有史以來最好的業績,包括在繁忙的假期期間創下了創紀錄的準時出發率和完成率。美國航空在 2023 年幹線和區域航班完成率方面位居美國網路承運商之首,且航班取消數量為合併以來最低。所有這些導致第四季度和全年推薦分數的可能性創歷史新高。

  • No network airline has operated more reliably than American over the past 1.5 years. We're running the best operation in our history, thanks to a focus on operational excellence and strong collaboration across the entire organization. We'll continue to build on that performance and deliver exceptional service for our customers. Now I'll turn it over to Devon to share more about our fourth quarter and full year financial results and outlook for the rest of the year.

    在過去 1.5 年裡,沒有一家網路航空公司的營運比美國航空更可靠。由於對卓越營運的關注以及整個組織的密切協作,我們正在實現歷史上最好的營運。我們將繼續鞏固這項業績,為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務。現在我將把它交給德文郡,分享更多有關我們第四季度和全年財務業績以及今年剩餘時間的展望的信息。

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Robert, and thank you to the American Airlines team for continuing to produce outstanding results.

    謝謝羅伯特,也感謝美國航空團隊繼續取得優異的成績。

  • In the fourth quarter and for the full year, we delivered a fantastic operation for our customers. We took further action to strengthen our balance sheet and early this year, we finalized a new contract for our customer service team members.

    在第四季度和全年,我們為客戶提供了出色的營運。我們採取了進一步行動來加強我們的資產負債表,今年年初,我們為客戶服務團隊成員敲定了一份新合約。

  • In the fourth quarter, excluding net special items, we reported net income of $192 million or adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.29 and earnings result above our guidance for the quarter driven by strong operational performance and better ex fuel unit cost performance. For the full year, we delivered on our stated objectives and produced results in line with the guidance we provided last January, including on capacity production, unit revenue, CASMx and earnings per share. Excluding net special items, we generated full year net income of $1.9 billion or adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.65 and importantly, for the full year, we generated free cash flow of $1.8 billion.

    在第四季度,不計淨特殊項目,我們公佈的淨利潤為1.92 億美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為0.29 美元,由於強勁的運營業績和更好的燃油單位成本效益,盈利結果高於我們對本季度的指導。全年,我們實現了既定目標,並根據我們去年 1 月提供的指導產生了結果,包括產能、單位收入、CASMx 和每股收益。不計淨特殊項目,我們全年淨利潤為 19 億美元,調整後每股攤薄收益為 2.65 美元,重要的是,我們全年自由現金流為 18 億美元。

  • In 2023, American produced record revenue of approximately $53 billion. We generated an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.5% and an adjusted operating margin of 7.6%. In the fourth quarter, revenue was more than $13 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%, and we produced an adjusted operating margin of 5.1%.

    2023 年,美國航空創造了約 530 億美元的創紀錄收入。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.5%,調整後營業利益率為 7.6%。第四季營收超過130億美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12%,調整後的營業利益率為 5.1%。

  • Our strong operational performance in the fourth quarter resulted in capacity that was 5.8% higher year-over-year, slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range. Unit revenue for the quarter was in line with the midpoint of our previous guidance, down 6.4% year-over-year. Unit costs, excluding net special items and fuel, was up 4.2% year-over-year, nearly 1 point better than the low end of our prior guidance range. This outcome was driven in part by the strength of our operation, resulting in more capacity, lower overtime and premium pay and lower interrupted trip expense.

    我們第四季強勁的營運業績導致運力年增 5.8%,略高於我們指引範圍的中點。本季的單位收入與我們先前指引的中位數一致,年減 6.4%。單位成本(不包括淨特殊項目和燃料)年增 4.2%,比我們先前指導範圍的下限高出近 1 個百分點。這一結果在一定程度上是由我們的營運實力推動的,從而帶來了更多的運力、更低的加班費和額外費用以及更低的中斷旅行費用。

  • Turning now to our fleet. We have modest aircraft CapEx requirements this decade due to the fleet investments we made over the past decade. In 2023, we took delivery of 23 new mainline aircraft. This year, we expect to take delivery of 28 new mainline aircraft, including 20 737 MAX 8, 6 787-9s and 2 A321neo aircraft.

    現在轉向我們的艦隊。由於過去十年我們對機隊進行了投資,因此我們這十年對飛機資本支出的要求並不高。 2023 年,我們接收了 23 架新幹線飛機。今年,我們預計將接收 28 架新幹線飛機,包括 20 737 MAX 8、6 787-9 和 2 架 A321neo 飛機。

  • Our 2024 aircraft CapEx is expected to be approximately $2.3 billion and our 2024 non-aircraft CapEx is expected to be approximately $850 million. We continue to have discussions with manufacturers for additional aircraft to deliver later this decade and into the 2030s.

    我們 2024 年的飛機資本支出預計約為 23 億美元,2024 年非飛機資本支出預計約為 8.5 億美元。我們繼續與製造商討論在本十年後期和 2030 年代交付更多飛機的問題。

  • Due to the young age of our fleet, we have very modest aircraft replacement needs. As a result, we expect aircraft CapEx to average less than $3.5 billion per year from 2025 through 2030. A relatively low capital requirements, along with our free cash flow production has allowed for significant progress in strengthening the balance sheet. We have now reduced total debt by approximately $11.4 billion from peak levels in 2021. And by the end of this year, we expect to have reduced total debt by approximately $13 billion from peak levels in 2021 which is over 85% of the way towards our $15 billion total debt reduction goal.

    由於我們的機隊年齡較小,我們的飛機更換需求非常有限。因此,我們預計從2025 年到2030 年,飛機資本支出平均每年低於35 億美元。相對較低的資本需求,加上我們的自由現金流生產,使得我們在強化資產負債表方面取得了重大進展。目前,我們已將總債務較2021 年的高峰水準減少了約114 億美元。到今年年底,我們預計總債務將較2021 年的高峰水準減少約130 億美元,這是我們實現目標的85% 以上。總債務削減目標為 150 億美元。

  • Now on to the outlook for 2024. Our focus this year will be to continue to deliver industry-leading reliability and to reengineer our business to ensure we run the airline as efficiently as possible while enhancing the customer experience. This year, we'll finally be producing more capacity than we did in 2019. Consistent with our prior expectations, we plan to grow capacity mid-single digits year-over-year in 2024. This growth will be enabled by improved asset utilization and new aircraft deliveries. Based on current assumptions, we expect full year TRASM to be flat to down 3% year-over-year. For the full year, we expect CASMx to be up approximately 0.5% to 3.5% versus 2023. This unit cost guidance reflects approximately 2.5 points of year-over-year CASMx pressure due to collective bargain agreements ratified in 2023 and early 2024, an anticipated agreement with our flight attendants in 2024. Our ability to achieve this full year unit cost result is due to our focus on operating more efficiently and improving our asset utilization.

    現在展望 2024 年。我們今年的重點將是繼續提供業界領先的可靠性並重新設計我們的業務,以確保我們盡可能高效地經營航空公司,同時增強客戶體驗。今年,我們最終將生產比 2019 年更多的產能。與我們先前預期的一致,我們計劃在 2024 年同比實現中個位數的產能成長。這種成長將透過提高資產利用率和新飛機交付。根據目前的假設,我們預計全年 TRASM 將持平至年減 3%。就全年而言,我們預計 CASMx 將比 2023 年增長約 0.5% 至 3.5%。該單位成本指導反映了由於 2023 年和 2024 年初批准的集體談判協議而導致 CASMx 同比壓力約 2.5 個百分點,預計我們將於2024 年與空服員達成協議。我們之所以能夠實現全年單位成本結果,是因為我們專注於更有效率地營運和提高資產利用率。

  • In 2024, we expect aircraft utilization to be up 2% to 4%, and we expect to deliver approximately $400 million in cost savings through the use of digital solutions, reengineering processes and transforming procurement. We have spent the last 18 months sizing the opportunity and developing plans to reengineer our business to be more productive while improving the customer and team member experience. We are excited about the early results, and we will spend more time discussing these opportunities in greater detail at our upcoming Investor Day.

    到 2024 年,我們預計飛機利用率將提高 2% 至 4%,並預計透過使用數位解決方案、流程再造和採購轉型將節省約 4 億美元的成本。在過去 18 個月裡,我們一直在評估機會並製定計劃,以重新設計我們的業務,以提高生產力,同時改善客戶和團隊成員的體驗。我們對早期結果感到興奮,我們將在即將到來的投資者日花更多時間更詳細地討論這些機會。

  • This year, we expect to produce adjusted earnings per diluted share of between $2.25 and $3.25. Using the midpoint of that guidance, we are forecasting free cash flow production of over $2 billion. Looking at the first quarter, we expect TRASM to be down approximately 3.5% to 5.5% on 6.5% to 8.5% more capacity year-over-year. We expect first quarter CASMx to be up approximately 2% to 4% year-over-year. Recall that we did not have the cost impact of our new pilot agreement accrued in the first quarter of 2023. Our year-over-year CASMx performance improved throughout the year as we lap the pilot agreement increases.

    今年,我們預計調整後每股攤薄收益將在 2.25 美元至 3.25 美元之間。根據該指引的中點,我們預測自由現金流產量將超過 20 億美元。展望第一季度,我們預期 TRASM 將下降約 3.5% 至 5.5%,運力年增 6.5% 至 8.5%。我們預計第一季 CASMx 將年增約 2% 至 4%。回想一下,我們沒有受到 2023 年第一季新試點協議的成本影響。隨著試點協議的增加,我們的 CASMx 業績全年同比有所改善。

  • Our current forecast for the first quarter assumes a fuel price of between $2.65 and $2.85 per gallon. Based on our current demand assumptions and fuel price forecast, we expect to produce an adjusted operating margin of between 0% and 2% in the first quarter and an adjusted loss per share of between $0.15 and $0.35. We are pleased with the progress the American Airlines team has made in 2023, and we remain focused on delivering results to unlock additional value in 2024 and beyond. Now back to Robert for closing remarks.

    我們目前對第一季的預測假設燃油價格在每加侖 2.65 美元至 2.85 美元之間。根據我們目前的需求假設和燃油價格預測,我們預計第一季調整後的營業利潤率為 0% 至 2%,調整後的每股虧損為 0.15 美元至 0.35 美元。我們對美國航空團隊在 2023 年的進展感到高興,我們將繼續專注於交付成果,以在 2024 年及以後釋放額外價值。現在請羅伯特致閉幕詞。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Devon. The American Airlines team continues to produce outstanding operational and financial results. When I moved into the CEO role 2 years ago, we made a commitment to be reliable and profitable, and we have delivered in a big way. We made it clear to all of you what we are going to do, and our team made it happen. Moving forward, we will continue to execute on our plans and control what we can control.

    謝謝,德文郡。美國航空團隊繼續創造出色的營運和財務表現。兩年前,當我擔任執行長時,我們做出了可靠和盈利的承諾,並且我們已經取得了巨大的成果。我們向大家明確了我們要做什麼,我們的團隊也實現了這個目標。展望未來,我們將繼續執行我們的計劃並控制我們能控制的事情。

  • Our team has done tremendous work, but there's much more in front of us as we continue to leverage our fleet and our network and build on our operational momentum. We see significant opportunities to reengineer the business to build a more efficient airline. All of this will enable us to generate sustainable free cash flow. We look forward to sharing much more at our Investor Day on March 4. And now operator, please open the line for analyst questions.

    我們的團隊已經做了大量的工作,但隨著我們繼續利用我們的機隊和網路並鞏固我們的營運勢頭,我們面前還有更多的事情要做。我們看到了重新設計業務以建立更有效率的航空公司的重大機會。所有這些將使我們能夠產生可持續的自由現金流。我們期待在 3 月 4 日的投資者日分享更多資訊。現在,營運商請開通分析師提問熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Our first question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank.

    我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥可‧林伯格(Michael Linenberg)。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • I guess sort of a 2-part question to involves Latin America to -- I guess, Vasu December quarter, it did look like that, that was the geography that underperformed and I know some have called out that, that's going to be a challenging geography in the March quarter as well. Obviously, it's a region that you're very strong in. I believe last quarter, Vasu, you did indicate that you were sort of going to add even more capacity into the region. There were markets that maybe were working there. Can you differentiate between near international beach markets and maybe Latin America long haul -- is there a distinction, one is outperforming the other? Any color on that? And then I have a quick follow-up related to the region as well.

    我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題,涉及拉丁美洲——我想,瓦蘇十二月季度,它看起來確實是這樣,這是表現不佳的地理區域,我知道有些人已經指出了這一點,這將是一個具有挑戰性的問題三月季度的地理情況也是如此。顯然,這是一個你們非常強大的地區。我相信上個季度,Vasu,你們確實表示你們將在該地區增加更多的產能。那裡可能有一些市場正在發揮作用。您能區分近國際海灘市場和拉丁美洲長途市場嗎?是否有區別,一個優於另一個?那上面有什麼顏色嗎?然後我也會對該地區進行快速跟進。

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Absolutely, Mike. No, it's a great question. There's actually 2 things to clarify. One is the difference between as we call it, short-haul and long-haul Latin America and also the difference between year-over-year RASM and actually marginal profitability. So -- and I'll do the second one first.

    當然,麥克。不,這是一個很好的問題。其實有兩件事需要澄清。一個是我們所說的拉丁美洲短途和長途之間的差異,以及同比 RASM 和實際邊際盈利能力之間的差異。所以——我會先做第二個。

  • First, in December, we flew our larger schedule ever in Miami with so much of it going to Latin America and also that was profitable, we've seen the Miami hub. We've been able to drive a lot of efficiency over South America. And so while we do see some more challenging near-term revenue trends, the important thing is it's near term, both in short and in long.

    首先,12 月份,我們在邁阿密執行了有史以來規模更大的航班,其中大部分航班飛往拉丁美洲,而且這是有利可圖的,我們已經看到了邁阿密樞紐。我們已經能夠提高南美地區的效率。因此,雖然我們確實看到了一些更具挑戰性的近期收入趨勢,但重要的是它是近期的,無論是短期還是長期。

  • As we look at Q1, the entirety of our short-haul business, domestic plus the short-haul Latin markets together basically anyway where we can fly a narrow-body turns positive by the end of Q1. So we do see the issues as really more near term and related with -- in the long-haul market, too, we see improving trends as we move through the course of the year.

    當我們看第一季時,我們的整個短途業務,國內加上短途拉丁市場,基本上在第一季末我們可以駕駛窄體飛機的地方都轉為正值。因此,我們確實認為這些問題實際上是更近期的問題,並且與長途市場相關,隨著這一年的發展,我們也看到了趨勢的改善。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Then just my second on Latin America, your partner down in Brazil looks like they may potentially file for bankruptcy. When I think about your CapEx and investments for 2024, are you including in that some potential additional investment in GOL? Or is that a TBD? Or maybe that's not even on the table? How should we think about that in your relationship there?

    好的。偉大的。接下來是我第二次談到拉丁美洲,你在巴西的合作夥伴看起來可能會申請破產。當我考慮你們 2024 年的資本支出和投資時,你們是否包括對 GOL 的一些潛在額外投資?或者這是一個待定?或者也許這根本就沒有擺在桌面上?我們該如何看待你們之間的關係?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Mike, there's probably a lot about this that we're not going to quite answer yet, but at least let me offer this. First, foremost and always, our partnership with GOL is a commercial partnership and we benefit them tremendously through our network, our AAdvantage program and our customer base. We're a massive source of value for them and whatever course of action they choose to take that will hold true. And the last thing I'll say is really for our customers that no matter what might happen in the region, we see no compromise to our network connectivity, the quality of service or whatever else might be the case. So we're prepared for all eventualities, but our partnerships are first and foremost, commercial partnerships.

    麥克,關於這個問題,我們可能還不能完全回答,但至少讓我提供一下。首先,最重要且始終是,我們與 GOL 的合作夥伴關係是商業合作夥伴關係,我們透過我們的人脈、AAdvantage 計劃和客戶群使他們受益匪淺。我們對他們來說是巨大的價值來源,無論他們選擇採取什麼行動,這都是正確的。我要說的最後一件事是對我們的客戶來說,無論該地區可能發生什麼,我們的網路連線、服務品質或其他任何情況都不會受到影響。因此,我們已為所有可能發生的情況做好準備,但我們的合作夥伴關係首先是商業合作夥伴關係。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究斯科特集團。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Thanks. So Overall, we've seen some of the other airlines so far guide to positive RASM this year. How come you guys are so flat -- you guys are flat to down on RASM? Any thoughts that explains the difference between what you're guiding to and maybe what some of the others are saying.

    謝謝。總的來說,我們已經看到其他一些航空公司今年採取了積極的 RASM 措施。你們為什麼這麼平淡──你們對 RASM 的態度平淡到低落?任何能夠解釋你所指導的內容與其他人所說的內容之間差異的想法。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • This is Robert. Look, we see obviously tremendous demand. But we build our plan based on what we think is going to happen. Now that said, if other carriers are actually seeing that kind of benefit, it's going to accrue to American as well. And so I have no doubt that if there are adjustments to our assumptions based on any reason, whether that be capacity or demand that, look, we're going to be the beneficiaries as well as for overall economic performance in the U.S.

    這是羅伯特.看,我們顯然看到了巨大的需求。但我們根據我們認為將要發生的事情制定計劃。話雖如此,如果其他航空公司確實看到了這種好處,那麼美國航空也將受益。因此,我毫不懷疑,如果基於任何原因(無論是產能還是需求)對我們的假設進行調整,我們將成為美國整體經濟表現的受益者。

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. And Scott, I'll only add. Our focus in this company is margin performance. And there's so much that can change as you get out into Q3 or Q4. But as we see it right now, as the year has started, we are in taking revenues at the same growth rate that our capacity is coming in. As I mentioned earlier, we will exit Q1 as we anticipated with positive year-over-year RASM in our domestic and short-haul business. And we expect a lot of the same strength in international RASMs to continue. But first and always, we're margin-focused.

    是的。斯科特,我只想補充一下。我們對這家公司的關注點是利潤率表現。當進入第三季或第四季時,有很多事情可能會發生變化。但正如我們現在所看到的,隨著今年的開始,我們的收入成長率與我們的產能成長率相同。正如我之前提到的,我們將如我們預期的那樣以同比正值結束第一季度RASM 應用於我們的國內和短途業務。我們預計國際 RASM 將繼續保持同樣的優勢。但首先且始終是,我們關注利潤。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So just so I'm understanding within your RASM guide for Q1, you're expecting domestic RASM to inflect positive by the end of the quarter. Is that right?

    因此,據我了解,您在第一季的 RASM 指南中,您預計國內 RASM 將在本季末出現積極變化。是對的嗎?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then just so your -- just want to clarify, the full year guide does include expectations for flight attendant deal?

    好的。然後,您想澄清一下,全年指南確實包括對空服員交易的期望嗎?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, it does have a SIM flight attendant deal.

    是的,它確實有 SIM 卡空服服務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe one for Devon first. Congrats on the progress towards your total debt goal. Seems like that's tracking ahead of schedule. What's the right debt reduction target we should be thinking about for 2024 with over $2 billion in free cash flow currently expected? I'm sure we'll hear more in March, but any high-level thoughts on where you want leverage to go in the short term? And what's the appropriate long-term level of net debt or EBITDA or whatever your preferred metric is.

    也許第一個是德文郡的。恭喜您在實現總債務目標方面取得進展。看來這比計劃提前了。目前預計自由現金流將超過 20 億美元,我們應該考慮 2024 年正確的債務削減目標是什麼?我相信我們會在三月聽到更多消息,但是對於短期內您希望槓桿的走向有什麼高層想法嗎?適當的長期淨債務水準或 EBITDA 或您首選的指標是多少。

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the question, Catie. We are pretty focused on the next 24 months right now. So as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we expect total debt reduction to be down $13 billion by the end of 2024. So about $1.5 billion improvement from where we were at at the end of 2023. We still have a target for $15 billion of total debt reduction by the end of 2025.

    謝謝你的提問,凱蒂。我們現在非常關注未來 24 個月。正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們預計到2024 年底債務削減總額將減少130 億美元。因此,與2023 年底的情況相比,債務削減總額將減少15 億美元。我們仍然有150億美元的目標到2025年底債務總額減少。

  • So we're really proud of the progress we have made over the last couple of years, also really proud of the progress we've made in smoothing out our debt towers going forward. At the start of 2023, we had over $9 billion of debt due in 2025. Through debt paydown and some refinancings, we have significantly smoothed that tower, and we feel really good about where we're at now. We still feel great about the $15 billion total debt reduction target and yes, as we get to the Investor Day in March, we'll talk a lot more about our longer-term goals for the balance sheet.

    因此,我們對過去幾年的進展感到非常自豪,也對我們在消除未來債務高峰方面取得的進展感到非常自豪。 2023 年初,我們有超過 90 億美元的債務將於 2025 年到期。透過償還債務和一些再融資,我們已經顯著平滑了這座塔,我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們仍然對 150 億美元的總債務削減目標感到滿意,是的,當我們進入 3 月份的投資者日時,我們將更多地談論我們的資產負債表的長期目標。

  • Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

    Catherine Maureen O'Brien - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe if I could just dig in a little more with you, Vasu, on how you expect the different regions to perform underlying that 1Q unit revenue guide of down 3.5% to 5.5%. Understand what you already told us about short-haul domestic turning positive by the end of the quarter, but would love to just kind of run through Transatlantic, LATAM, Asia Pac, domestic with whatever details you can provide.

    知道了。然後,也許我可以與 Vasu 進一步深入探討一下,在第一季單位收入指南下降 3.5% 至 5.5% 的情況下,您預計不同地區的表現如何。了解您已經告訴我們的關於國內短途航班在本季度末轉為正值的情況,但希望能提供一下您能提供的任何詳細信息,包括跨大西洋、拉丁美洲、亞太地區、國內航班。

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, sure, happy to. Looking for us, we anticipate that the domestic system will turn positive by the end of the quarter. And maybe I should start by saying this -- so much of our capacity is weighted to the short-haul market. In Q1, we will be over 75% our ASMs in domestic and short-haul Caribbean. So that very much influences things. But we end Q1 with RASM across those regions turning positive.

    是的,當然,很高興。就我們而言,我們預計國內系統將在本季末轉為正值。也許我應該先這樣說——我們的運力大部分都集中在短途市場。在第一季度,我們 75% 以上的 ASM 將在國內和加勒比海短程航線上使用。所以這對事情有很大的影響。但我們在第一季結束時,這些地區的 RASM 轉為正值。

  • In long haul, we see a lot of effectively flat transatlantic performance year-over-year, Trans-Pacific and long-haul Latin flat to slightly down year-over-year. But all of those entities are seeing improving trends. And certainly, as we see more capacity changes coming into schedules for March and beyond, those numbers will yet move again, and we're probably more encouraged by what we see in short haul than -- and maybe any other region at this point.

    在長途航線方面,我們看到許多跨大西洋航線的表現同比持平,跨太平洋航線和拉丁航線的長途航線同比持平甚至略有下降。但所有這些實體都看到了改善的趨勢。當然,隨著我們看到更多的運力變化進入三月及以後的時間表,這些數字將再次發生變化,而且我們可能比目前任何其他地區都更受短途航班的鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker of JPMorgan Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的傑米貝克(Jamie Baker)。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • A couple for Vasu. First, the dead horse question. I know you're not going to give a specific guide on geographic profitability. But as we think about the Northeast alliance unwind, considering demand seasonality, what quarter do you anticipate the maximum pain from the unwind being experienced? And perhaps that's behind us in your models. Just at what point are New York and Boston, the largest drag or the least contributing however you want to think about it?

    瓦甦的一對。首先,死馬問題。我知道您不會提供有關地理盈利能力的具體指南。但是,當我們考慮東北聯盟的解散時,考慮到需求季節性,您預期哪個季度會經歷解散帶來的最大痛苦?也許這就是我們在你們的模型中所看到的。不管你怎麼想,紐約和波士頓到底在什麼時候成為最大的拖累或貢獻最小的呢?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, Jamie, the worst is behind us. That happened in Q3. In fact, New York, and I'd refer you and others to prior commentary that I made on this either in the press or on these calls. The New York marketplace, the New York customer base has changed in the post-pandemic world. It now is a thing which our slot portfolio serves a whole lot better. Our New York performance is doing better.

    好吧,傑米,最糟糕的時刻已經過去了。這發生在第三季。事實上,紐約,我建議你們和其他人參考我之前在媒體或這些電話中對此發表的評論。紐約市場、紐約客戶群在疫情後的世界中發生了變化。現在,我們的老虎機產品組合提供了更好的服務。我們在紐約的表現越來越好。

  • And unlike what led to the partnerships we've had there, we see continued growth in origination share. New York is our largest market for enrolling new customers both in AAdvantage and in the credit card, and it had never been that prior to the NEA. So we're certainly open to -- we're open to any partnership that is better for our customers, period, full stop. But for where we are right now, the worst is certainly behind us.

    與我們在那裡建立合作夥伴關係的原因不同,我們看到原創份額持續增長。紐約是我們在 AAdvantage 和信用卡領域招收新客戶的最大市場,在 NEA 之前從未如此。因此,我們當然願意——我們願意接受任何對我們的客戶來說更好的合作夥伴關係,句點。但就我們目前所處的情況而言,最糟糕的情況肯定已經過去了。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline & Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Perfect. And then on corporate recovery, in the past, you and I -- I mean, we've all spoken about blended travel and the network and pricing changes that you've made to take advantage of that phenomenon. When we think about what you're seeing today in terms of corporate recovery though, is it robust enough that you need to make further adjustments? Or is it simply incremental yield without any cost or effort?

    完美的。然後關於企業復甦,在過去,你和我——我的意思是,我們都談到了混合旅行以及你們為利用這種現象而做出的網絡和定價變化。然而,當我們思考您今天所看到的企業復甦情況時,它是否足夠強勁以至於您需要進一步的調整?或只是增加產量而不需要任何成本或努力?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Jamie, it's a great question. And maybe one that speaks at large to our distribution strategy. And so let me speak at large to that first, and I'll hit that. First, all of our changes, whether it's with corporate travel management or travel agencies or what have you are this simple. We sell our product through the Internet. That's what our customers demand. That's how we can give them the best content at the lowest expenses to them and the best servicing. And we see that. We see that we're producing revenue more efficiently, more strategically, more to the liking of our customers. I'll echo what Robert said. We're up 15% in revenue, we're down 8% to 9% in selling expenses or likelihood to recommend scores are higher. But as we look at it, what has really been a change is 65% of our revenue comes from AAdvantage customers, but (technical difficulty) that more.

    傑米,這是一個很好的問題。也許這也能說明我們的分銷策略。因此,讓我先談談這一點,然後我會談到這一點。首先,我們所有的改變,無論是企業差旅管理、旅行社或其他什麼,都是這麼簡單。我們透過網路銷售我們的產品。這就是我們的客戶的需求。這就是我們如何以最低的費用為他們提供最好的內容和最好的服務。我們看到了這一點。我們發現我們正在更有效率、更具策略性地創造收入,並且更符合客戶的喜好。我會回應羅伯特所說的。我們的收入成長了 15%,銷售費用下降了 8% 到 9%,或推薦分數更高的可能性。但當我們看到它時,真正的變化是我們 65% 的收入來自 AAdvantage 客戶,但(技術難度)更多。

  • About 45% of our revenue is coming from AAdvantage customers who are buying premium content, a better seat, more of fundability, more flexibility for miles, and that's up 3 points year-over-year. So that's all to say that -- any which way we double-click on that, it's meaningful, right? We too exit Q4 with a 90% business recovery. Within that unmanaged business versus managed businesses almost a 3:1 ratio with unmanaged business 100% plus covered managed business down further. The impact on managed business is really flat traffic on higher yields.

    我們大約 45% 的收入來自 AAdvantage 客戶,他們購買優質內容、更好的座位、更多的資金來源、更靈活的里程,比去年同期成長 3 個百分點。這就是說——無論我們以何種方式雙擊它,它都是有意義的,對嗎?我們也以 90% 的業務復甦結束第四季。其中,非託管業務與託管業務的比例幾乎為 3:1,其中非託管業務為 100%,加上涵蓋的託管業務進一步下降。對託管業務的影響實際上是流量平坦但收益更高。

  • So as we go forward, actually, we're going to lean further into this. What we have realized through this is, first and foremost, we need to make it easy for our customers to consume our content through the Internet. So we're going to offer more mileage for customers who shop through the Internet. We're going to roll out better servicing capabilities for Internet distribution. And we are going to start restricting the amount of selling and servicing that we do through non Internet-based channels.

    因此,實際上,隨著我們前進,我們將進一步關注這一點。透過這一點,我們認識到,首先也是最重要的是,我們需要讓客戶能夠輕鬆地透過網路消費我們的內容。因此,我們將為透過網路購物的顧客提供更多里程。我們將為網路分發推出更好的服務能力。我們將開始限制透過非網路管道進行的銷售和服務的數量。

  • And we invite all the travel managers and all of the travel agencies of the world to join us in this because this is great for customers, and it should be great for them too. All of our financial incentives targeted to that audience are really around helping them ship. So we've actually been very encouraged by what we've seen. I think clearly, our relative rousing performance is similar to what it was in the exit pandemic period. And now in the year ahead, we have the opportunity to optimize.

    我們邀請世界上所有的旅行經理和所有的旅行社加入我們的行列,因為這對客戶來說很棒,也應該對他們來說很棒。我們針對這些受眾的所有經濟誘因實際上都是為了幫助他們出貨。所以我們實際上對我們所看到的感到非常鼓舞。我清楚地認為,我們相對令人興奮的表現與退出大流行時期相似。現在,在未來的一年裡,我們有機會進行最佳化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Vernon of Bernstein.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛·弗農(David Vernon)。

  • David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

    David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

  • On the topic of sort of premium and how the (inaudible) are affecting the business right now. Can you give us some sort of color around how the premium product sales or movements up and down the fare ladder happening growth in basic growth in premium? Just give us some sense of kind of where you are in that process of tapping into what is a more lucrative segment of revenue?

    關於溢價的主題以及(聽不清楚)目前如何影響業務。您能否給我們一些關於溢價產品銷售或票價階梯上下變動如何發生溢價基本增長的信息?請讓我們了解一下您在利用更有利可圖的收入部分的過程中處於什麼位置?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, David. This is Vasu and I'll pick it up right where I left it off. I think I can probably give you a fact point that makes it easier to understand just why we are so focused around selling -- creating more content for AAdvantage customers. So if you look at our system right now, about 7% of what we sell is base economy and indeed, that is up 20% year-over-year. But that's up 20% year-over-year because we changed its product.

    謝謝,大衛。這是 Vasu,我會從上次停下的地方繼續。我想我或許可以向您提供一個事實要點,讓您更容易理解為什麼我們如此專注於銷售——為 AAdvantage 客戶創造更多內容。因此,如果你現在看看我們的系統,我們銷售的商品中約有 7% 是基礎經濟艙,事實上,這個數字比去年同期成長了 20%。但由於我們改變了產品,這一數字年增了 20%。

  • Last year, we included it in commission dealings and corporate travel management programs. We just took it out last year. We reintroduced it here this year. It's actually not the critical thing. What's been more interesting to us is 10% of our revenue is coming from customers who actually shop basic but then buy something higher. And within that, that number is up 25% year-over-year, and almost all of its growth is coming through dot-com and app. And we see more and more ways where customers actually who are coming for a basic product want more than that and we can go and deliver that to them, which is why so many of our distribution strategies far from being risky we see as a great opportunity.

    去年,我們將其納入佣金交易和企業差旅管理計畫中。我們去年才把它拿出來。今年我們在這裡重新推出了它。其實這並不是關鍵的事情。對我們來說更有趣的是,我們 10% 的收入來自於實際購買基本商品但隨後購買更高價格商品的客戶。其中,該數字年增 25%,幾乎所有成長都來自網路和應用程式。我們看到越來越多的方式表明,實際上購買基本產品的客戶想要的不僅僅是這些,我們可以將這些產品交付給他們,這就是為什麼我們的許多分銷策略遠遠沒有風險,我們認為這是一個很好的機會。

  • David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

    David Scott Vernon - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up, as you think about some of the rationalization of the negative margin or lower margin capacity that's being contemplated out in the industry, how do we -- how should we be thinking about the impact of, let's say, an unbundled operator pulling in capacity on your fare ladder. Does that -- is that sort of uniform impact up and down the different fare classes? Or is it more concentrated in something like a basic product? Anything you could tell us for -- help us to understand how some of the capacity changes in the market might impact American would be really helpful.

    好的。然後,也許只是一個快速的後續行動,當你考慮行業中正在考慮的負利潤或較低利潤能力的一些合理化時,我們如何——我們應該如何考慮以下影響,比方說,一家非捆綁運營商在您的票價階梯上拉動運力。這種統一的方式會影響不同票價等級嗎?還是更集中在基本產品之類的東西?您能告訴我們的任何資訊——幫助我們了解市場上的一些運力變化可能如何影響美國航空——都會非常有幫助。

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Well, look, at large, and I think Robert mentioned it earlier. I mean, if there's -- it is all business supply-demand-driven businesses. And if there's less supply, that's going to have a clear impact on demand. But for us, with things like basic, back for all of our fare products, we do not make products that are so odious no one will buy it. The whole point of them is to actually have customers experience, travel and joint advantage. And for us, base economy is not about a competitive product. It's our entry-level product that gets customers in the door and signed up for AAdvantage.

    好吧,看,總的來說,我想羅伯特之前提到過。我的意思是,如果有的話——那都是企業供需驅動的企業。如果供應減少,將對需求產生明顯影響。但對我們來說,對於我們所有的票價產品來說,我們不會生產那些令人厭惡的產品,沒有人會買。他們的重點是真正擁有客戶體驗、旅行和聯合優勢。對我們來說,基礎經濟並不是有競爭力的產品。這是我們的入門級產品,吸引客戶上門並註冊 AAdvantage。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • David, I just want to add one other thing here, which is this -- Is that we've built technology to enable us to react to whatever may come our way. So as Vasu said, look, our goal is to make sure that we can deliver a product to the customers the way they want to receive it. It also has to be done in a way that is incredibly nimble and can be changed. And in the past, you may have seen carriers even American unable to react very quickly.

    大衛,我只想在這裡補充一件事,那就是——我們已經建立了技術,使我們能夠對可能發生的任何事情做出反應。正如瓦蘇所說,我們的目標是確保我們能夠以客戶想要的方式向他們交付產品。它還必須以一種極其靈活且可改變的方式來完成。過去,您可能會看到航空公司甚至美國航空公司都無法快速做出反應。

  • That's not the case right now. So whatever happens in the marketplace. We've got the technology. We've got the product to be super competitive and whether it's us developing it on our own or having to compete will be ready.

    現在的情況並非如此。所以無論市場上發生什麼事。我們有技術。我們的產品具有超級競爭力,無論是我們自己開發還是必須競爭,我們都已經準備好了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham of Melius Research. Please go ahead, Conor.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。請繼續,康納。

  • I'll go to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

    我將討論下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的拉維·尚克(Ravi Shanker)。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Catherine on for Ravi. My question is really around the Investor Day in a few weeks, which I know is probably the first one you guys have hosted in about 7 years. And I was just curious what investors can expect to hear during the event, whether it's new financial long-term targets, revenue initiatives? Just any color around the event would be great.

    這是拉維的凱瑟琳。我的問題實際上是關於幾週後的投資者日,我知道這可能是你們七年來舉辦的第一個投資者日。我只是很好奇投資者在活動期間可以期待聽到什麼,是否是新的財務長期目標、收入計劃?活動周圍的任何顏色都會很棒。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Catherine, we're excited about the Investor Day. And look, we worked really hard to put the focus of the company on doing the funding -- fundamentals really well. You know that we've talked about returning the company to reliability, profitability, strengthening our balance sheet by paying down debt. We're in a really great spot now to talk about what's next. And on that horizon, we're going to be talking about the benefits of all the work that we've done on our fleet.

    凱瑟琳,我們對投資者日感到興奮。看,我們非常努力地將公司的重點放在融資上——基本面非常好。你知道,我們已經討論過讓公司恢復可靠性、獲利能力,透過償還債務來加強我們的資產負債表。我們現在處於一個非常好的位置來討論接下來的事情。在這個範圍內,我們將討論我們在機隊上所做的所有工作的好處。

  • All -- everything we've done with our network and partnerships, Vasu has mentioned a number of times, even today, the potential within our loyalty program. We're going to talk about even doing better in terms of what we deliver to our customers. And ultimately, we want to talk a lot about how we can do that all a lot more efficiently.

    所有——我們在網路和合作夥伴關係中所做的一切,即使在今天,Vasu 也多次提到了我們忠誠度計劃的潛力。我們將討論如何在向客戶提供的服務方面做得更好。最終,我們想討論如何更有效地做到這一點。

  • One of the things you'll see is that Americans -- look, it's a changed airline. We have a focus on producing free cash flow and ultimately rewarding our shareholders. So I can't wait to tell you more about all of that.

    你會看到的一件事是美國人——看,這是一家改變了的航空公司。我們專注於產生自由現金流並最終回報股東。所以我迫不及待地想告訴你更多關於這一切的資訊。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Just as a quick follow-up. I know it's probably too early, but I was curious if you had seen any share shift in January just due to the issue with the MAX grounding with other carriers. I wasn't sure if you had seen anything in the data.

    就像快速跟進。我知道現在可能還為時過早,但我很好奇您是否在 1 月份看到任何份額因 MAX 與其他運營商停飛的問題而發生的變化。我不確定你是否從數據中看到了什麼。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Now Vasu can add some color to that. Look, January isn't -- it's been a strong month for us, but it's never the busiest month of the year. And so we'll fly load factors in the 70s. It's probably similar for the rest of the industry. And while I'm sure that there's benefit. I know that there is, it's not material when you think about the number of seats that are open for all carriers and the overall size of the American Airlines business.

    現在 Vasu 可以為此添加一些顏色。看,一月不是——這對我們來說是一個強勁的月份,但它從來都不是一年中最繁忙的月份。因此,我們將把載客率控制在 70 年代。該行業的其他公司可能也有類似的情況。雖然我確信這有好處。我知道,當你考慮到向所有航空公司開放的座位數量以及美國航空業務的整體規模時,這並不重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Maybe start with Vasu. Can you speak to advanced bookings beyond 1Q here. Just curious, when we had this real surge this time last year, maybe you could just comment on what the booking curve looks like if it's shorter if it's lengthening. And if you have any commentary on domestic versus international book yields as you look a little further out into peak periods?

    也許從瓦蘇開始。您能在這裡談談 1 季度之後的提前預訂嗎?只是好奇,當我們去年這個時候出現真正的激增時,也許你可以評論一下預訂曲線如果變短或延長的話會是什麼樣子。當您進一步展望高峰期時,您對國內與國際圖書收益率有何評論?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, the booking curve is largely flat last year. There is a moderate shift, let's call it, 2 points from outside of the inside 30-day range to the outside 30-day range. What I would say is it's -- right now, we're in taking revenues in line with capacity and entity by entity, market by market, sometimes it's yields, sometimes it's traffic. But as long as that's continuing, we're encouraged.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。看,去年的預訂曲線基本上持平。從內部 30 日區間到外部 30 日區間有一個溫和的轉變,我們稱之為 2 個點。我想說的是,現在,我們正在根據產能和實體、逐個市場、逐個市場來確定收入,有時是收益率,有時是流量。但只要這種情況繼續下去,我們就會受到鼓舞。

  • Right now within the summer really the most impactful thing that we see as long haul, and we're seeing a long-haul book up on a revenue basis the same rates as we saw last year, which was a particularly strong year. And we're just too early in the domestic and short-haul curve to really see that yet. But we're encouraged by what we see even as we start selling more of March and the post-Easter period.

    目前,在夏季,我們認為最有影響力的事情是長途航班,我們看到遠端航班的收入水平與去年相同,去年是特別強勁的一年。我們在國內和短程航線上還處於早期階段,還無法真正看到這一點。但即使我們在三月和復活節後期開始銷售更多產品,我們所看到的情況仍然令我們感到鼓舞。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • You actually said more than I thought you would. Just a follow-up there. On the long haul, any commentary on book yields? Are we holding serve or are we going backwards a bit?

    你實際上說的比我想像的還要多。只是後續行動。從長遠來看,對圖書收益率有什麼評論嗎?我們是在保發還是在後退一點?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So far, we're holding serve and it's still a long way to go though.

    是的。到目前為止,我們正在保發,但還有很長的路要走。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora of Bank of America. Andrew.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。安德魯。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • So Robert, just on the operations. You've obviously made some great strides here post pandemic, certainly seems to really be helping your CASM. I don't want to steal any thunder from Investor Day, but just kind of want to get your bigger picture thoughts on like what is next operationally at America into '24 and '25? What's the plan? Or are you at a point now where it's sort of maintaining what you have built so far?

    羅伯特,只是負責營運。顯然,疫情後你們在這裡取得了一些巨大的進步,當然似乎確實對你們的 CASM 有所幫助。我不想從投資者日搶走任何風頭,只是想了解一下您的大局想法,例如美國在 24 和 25 年的下一步運營是什麼?計劃是什麼?或者您現在是否正在維護您迄今為止所建立的內容?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Andrew, thanks. Well, look, we're really proud of the team and what they've accomplished. You think about American Airlines being the most reliable carrier in the country over the last 18 months, over the last year. So nobody can claim that they flew a more reliable schedule or canceled fewer flights, and we're really proud of that.

    安德魯,謝謝。好吧,看,我們真的為這個團隊和他們所取得的成就感到自豪。您認為美國航空是過去 18 個月(即去年)美國最可靠的航空公司。因此,沒有人可以聲稱他們的航班時刻表更可靠或取消的航班更少,我們對此感到非常自豪。

  • But I'll tell you, that's a baseline now that we can take going forward. And you're right about the best way to run an airline is the most reliable. All the rework costs are taken out of it. But we're not going to stop there. We can do what we did, and we can do it more efficiently. And I want to just hand the mic over to David Seymour to talk a little bit more about how he thinks we can bring things like technology to bear. David?

    但我會告訴你,這是我們現在可以繼續前進的基線。您說得對,經營航空公司的最佳方式是最可靠的。所有的返工成本都從中扣除。但我們不會就此止步。我們可以做我們所做的事情,而且我們可以做得更有效。我想把麥克風交給 David Seymour,多談談他認為我們如何將科技等科技付諸實踐。大衛?

  • David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

    David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

  • Yes. No, Robert, thank you. And again, super proud of what the team has done in 2023. It was a great year, but it really, as Robert said, it is the foundation of where we're headed into '24 and beyond. What I'd tell you is we have a much better understanding of the complexities of our operation, and then we're investing in technology to solve quickly and more efficiently and more optimally than we ever have before. So our relationship and our partnering with our IT team is just starting, and we had to see a lot of opportunity in the future to do what we do better, more efficiently than we ever have before.

    是的。不,羅伯特,謝謝你。再次,我們對團隊在 2023 年所做的事情感到非常自豪。這是偉大的一年,但正如羅伯特所說,這確實是我們進入 24 年及以後的基礎。我要告訴你的是,我們對營運的複雜性有了更好的了解,然後我們投資技術來比以往更快、更有效率、更優化地解決問題。因此,我們與 IT 團隊的關係和合作才剛開始,我們必須看到未來有很多機會來比以前做得更好、更有效率。

  • Andrew George Didora - Director

    Andrew George Didora - Director

  • Got it. And then my follow-up question, Vasu, a lot of discussion on the call just with regards to your distribution strategy. I thought the 80% of bookings coming through these new channels was interesting. Where do you think this can go? 80% already seems pretty high. And what have been the growing pains thus far with the NDC rollout?

    知道了。然後是我的後續問題,Vasu,電話會議上有很多關於您的分銷策略的討論。我認為 80% 透過這些新管道進行的預訂很有趣。你認為這可以去哪裡? 80% 看起來已經相當高了。到目前為止,NDC 的推出遇到了哪些成長的困擾?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, I'll answer it in this way. We have been similarly enthusiastic and even a little surprised how quickly the transition has happened. It's not just that we're 80% coming through Internet-based technology. Within that 65-plus percent is coming just strictly through our owned channels, which is our greatest rate of growth. So first, I will say, strategically, we're going to distribute through the Internet. It's what our customers demand. That's how we give them the best fares and the lowest expenses and the best servicing.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。你看,我就這樣回答吧。我們也同樣充滿熱情,甚至有點驚訝這種轉變發生得如此之快。這不僅是因為我們 80% 的人都是透過基於互聯網的技術實現的。其中 65% 以上完全是透過我們自有管道獲得的,這是我們最大的成長率。首先,我要說,從戰略上講,我們將透過網路進行分發。這就是我們客戶的需求。這就是我們為他們提供最優惠的票價、最低的費用和最好的服務的方式。

  • So at some point, the number becomes 100. And the real issue in 2024 is we want to just continue to (inaudible) transition as many of our retailing partners to use the Internet with us. So ultimately, it becomes 100. We're really encouraged by what we've seen there.

    因此,到了某個時候,這個數字就會變成 100. 2024 年真正的問題是,我們希望繼續(聽不清楚)轉型,讓我們的許多零售合作夥伴與我們一起使用網路。所以最終,它變成了 100。我們對在那裡看到的一切感到非常鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的薩維賽斯 (Savi Syth)。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • Just to follow up on the commentary about balanced growth between domestic and international. I was curious if you can talk a little bit about like on the international side, if there's kind of a difference in growth trends between Atlantic and LatAm and Asia. And then on the domestic side, just if the regional mix, what kind of improvement in mix you're expecting this year?

    只是為了跟進國內和國際平衡成長的評論。我很好奇你是否能談談國際方面的情況,大西洋、拉丁美洲和亞洲之間的成長趨勢是否有差異。那麼在國內方面,就區域組合而言,您預計今年的組合會有什麼樣的改善?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Sure. And just as I understand, you're talking about the American Airlines capacity mix? It's not like the industry capacity mix or something.

    當然。據我了解,您指的是美國航空的運力組合?這不像是行業產能組合之類的。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Correct. Okay. Well, look, at large, consistent with pretty much all that we talked about, we will, through the course of the year, be a roughly 75% , 25% short-haul, long-haul carrier. Increasingly, about 50% our growth will be split about 50-50 between short haul and long haul. Certainly, the thing that we are maybe most enthusiastic about is the continued improved utilization of our wholly owned regional jets.

    正確的。好的。好吧,總的來說,與我們所討論的幾乎一致,我們將在今年內成為一家大約 75%、25% 的短途和長途航空公司。我們的成長將越來越多地以 50-50 的比例分配給短程航班和長途航班,比例約為 50%。當然,我們最感興趣的可能是我們全資支線飛機利用率的不斷提高。

  • In fact, so much of how domestic turns to positive RASM is directly correlated to us bringing regional jets back and -- as good as that starting to look in the weeks and months ahead, we know we still have 10% more utilization to do there.

    事實上,國內航空轉向積極的RASM 在很大程度上與我們恢復支線噴射機直接相關,而且——與未來幾週和幾個月開始看到的情況一樣,我們知道我們在那裡的利用率仍有10% 以上的空間需要完成。

  • So that's really where our opportunity is. And in long haul, I mean, you can kind of see the schedule that's out there right now. There's probably not a lot of difference when it actually goes to fly. But a big chunk of our footprint will be in Transatlantic in the summer, which tends to be the highest demand then followed by Latin America and last of all, Pacific.

    所以這確實是我們的機會所在。我的意思是,從長遠來看,你可以看到現在的時間表。當它真正飛起來時,可能沒有太大區別。但我們的足跡很大一部分將在夏季出現在跨大西洋地區,這往往是需求最高的地區,其次是拉丁美洲,最後是太平洋地區。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's helpful. And lastly, if I might, just kind of the conversion of the basic economy and discussion. On the premium revenue side, just wondering if you can talk about what you're seeing there? And if you're seeing any -- what you're seeing on the kind of the booked fresh class load factor, those kind of trends?

    這很有幫助。最後,如果可以的話,我想談談基本經濟和討論的轉變。在溢價收入方面,只是想知道您是否可以談談您在那裡看到的情況?如果您看到任何 - 您在預訂的新班級負載率方面看到了什麼,這些趨勢是什麼?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Look, 60% of our revenue comes from customers buying premium content, of which 45 points of that are AAdvantage customers and 15 points are non-AAdvantage customers. So I'd say at large, our real commercial opportunity is to make those people who are -- help those people who are 15% buying premium content join our program and give -- continue to give great content to the people who do.

    是的。你看,我們 60% 的收入來自購買優質內容的客戶,其中 45 分是 AAdvantage 客戶,15 分是非 AAdvantage 客戶。所以我想說,總的來說,我們真正的商業機會是讓那些人——幫助那些購買優質內容的15% 的人加入我們的計劃並給予——繼續為那些這樣做的人提供精彩的內容。

  • And we see continued improvements in premium load factors pretty much every way there is. Premium revenues across our system are up 15%. Premium book load factors are at their highest levels approaching close to 80 in some periods that are there. And really, a lot of what we're endeavoring to do is reserve so much of our premium capacity for advance customers.

    我們看到優質載客率幾乎在各方面都持續改善。我們整個系統的保費收入成長了 15%。優質圖書負載率在某些時期達到最高水平,接近 80。事實上,我們正​​在努力做的很多事情就是為高級客戶保留大量的優質容量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham of Melius Research.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Can you hear me?

    大家好。你聽得到我嗎?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • We've got you, Conor. Go ahead.

    我們找到你了,康納。前進。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Sorry about that. Just in terms of head count for 2024, we haven't heard a lot about that from you guys. From the industry standpoint, it's obviously slowing. But -- what do you need to add this year to kind of hit your 2024 trajectory in terms of capacity and maybe beyond that?

    對於那個很抱歉。就 2024 年的員工人數而言,我們還沒有從你們那裡聽到太多相關消息。從產業角度來看,成長率明顯放緩。但是,今年您需要添加什麼才能在容量方面達到您 2024 年的軌跡,甚至可能超出這個範圍?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. For this year, it certainly is a lot less higher than what we've done in the past. We are going to be bringing on about 1% more headcount. So what we'll call it somewhere around 1,000 or 2,000 more heads this year, but a big reduction from where we were last year. And it's just a sign of where we're at with efficiencies as well. We probably hired ahead a little bit in 2023. But -- this year, we're looking to grow the airline mid-single digits and head count is going to grow by about 1%.

    是的。今年,它肯定比我們過去所做的要低得多。我們將增加約 1% 的員工人數。所以我們稱之為今年大約增加了 1,000 或 2,000 頭,但比去年大幅減少。這也只是我們效率水平的一個標誌。我們可能會在 2023 年提前招募一些員工。但是,今年,我們希望航空公司實現中個位數成長,員工數量將增加約 1%。

  • Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

    Conor T. Cunningham - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And we haven't actually heard a lot about maintenance headwinds from you guys. And that's been like a major theme from a lot of the other carriers. So just are you seeing any meaningful call out into 2024. And then -- what are you guys doing specifically to mitigate a lot of those headwinds? I realize it grew a lot last year, but does that kind of normalize going forward?

    好的。完美的。事實上,我們還沒有從你們那裡聽到很多關於維護方面的阻力。這就像許多其他運營商的一個主要主題。那麼,你們是否看到任何有意義的關於 2024 年的呼籲。然後,你們具體做了什麼來減輕這些不利因素呢?我意識到去年成長了很多,但是這種情況未來會正常化嗎?

  • Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

    Devon E. May - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I'll start and just maybe talk about where the P&L has been and then turn it over to Robert or David. But -- we did have some headwinds in 2023. I want to say our maintenance expense in '23 versus 2022 was up something close to $0.5 billion. This year, it flattens out a bit. We do expect it to be up and it's one of the areas of the P&L where we'll have a little bit of variability just depending on how many in-house engine overhauls that we end up doing this year. But '23 was a big step up, '24 is less so, and there is a lot of great work being done on David's team to address it. So I'll hand it over to them.

    是的。我將首先討論損益表的情況,然後將其交給羅伯特或大衛。但是,我們在 2023 年確實遇到了一些阻力。我想說的是,與 2022 年相比,我們在 23 年的維護費用增加了近 5 億美元。今年,情況有所放緩。我們確實預計它會上升,這是損益表的一個領域,我們會有一點變化,這取決於我們今年最終進行的內部引擎大修次數。但「23」是一個很大的進步,「24」則不然,大衛的團隊正在做很多偉大的工作來解決這個問題。所以我會把它交給他們。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. So I'll just start. I think one of the things that I look at is that maintenance needs for the industry as a whole are going to increase, increase greatly. American is really well positioned, not only because of what we've done over the past decade by bringing in more new aircraft than anyone. But as well, remember that we have maintenance capabilities where we're not solely dependent on outside resources that are going to be incredibly constrained. So, one of the things that I know David can talk to us about is that we're going to make sure that we have even more capacity to do engine overhauls. We already have 12,000 mechanics more than anybody else and commercial aviation, and we're going to put them to good use. And I think that that's going to be even more of a strategic advantage for American as we take a look at a really constrained resource. David?

    是的。那我就開始吧。我認為我關注的一件事是整個行業的維護需求將會增加,大大增加。美國航空確實處於有利位置,這不僅是因為我們在過去十年中引進的新飛機比任何人都多。但也要記住,我們擁有維護能力,我們不僅僅依賴將受到極大限制的外部資源。因此,我知道大衛可以與我們談論的一件事是,我們將確保我們有更多的能力進行引擎大修。我們已經擁有比其他國家和商業航空更多的 12,000 名機械師,我們將充分利用他們。我認為,當我們考慮資源確實有限的情況時,這對美國來說將更具戰略優勢。大衛?

  • David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

    David G. Seymour - Executive VP & COO

  • Yes, Robert. Yes, there's a lot of effort that both Robert and Devon talked about, is that lot of focus here, and we have these normal ways that we run into with maintenance cycles that we have on heavy checks and engine checks that we got to do, but a lot of emphasis this past year and going into 2024 of getting a lot more efficient in how we manage that maintenance. As Robert talked about, we have really good control with longer-term resources to get that work done. So we're very confident that we're going to be able to get the efficiencies and reduce some of that cost here in the near future.

    是的,羅伯特。是的,羅伯特和德文都談到了很多努力,這是這裡的重點,我們在維護週期中遇到了這些正常的方法,我們必須進行大量檢查和發動機檢查,但去年以及進入2024 年,我們非常重視如何更有效地管理維護。正如羅伯特所說,我們可以很好地控制長期資源來完成這項工作。因此,我們非常有信心在不久的將來能夠提高效率並降低部分成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Daniel McKenzie。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • My 2 questions are on technology as well here. So 65% of the bookings going to 100% on aa.com. What percent or portion of the revenue does this represent today? And what percent of the revenue was up 15% exactly?

    我的兩個問題也與技術有關。因此 65% 的預訂在 aa.com 上達到 100%。這佔今天收入的百分比或比例是多少?營收成長 15% 的具體比例是多少?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • What I would say is -- let me first clarify. So 65% of our bookings are going through our digital channels. On a revenue basis, it's actually a little bit north of that. It's probably a little closer to $70 million as we're intake. And those are our revenue intakes that are coming in. Separately from that, when we go look back at 2023, 60% of our revenue came from customers buying premium content, which is a premium seat or greater flexibility around the premium seat. Of those 15% of our total customer base is a non-advantage about 45% is advantage.

    我想說的是——讓我先澄清一下。因此,我們 65% 的預訂是透過數位管道進行的。從收入的角度來看,它實際上有點偏高。根據我們的接收情況,這個數字可能接近 7,000 萬美元。這些是我們即將獲得的收入。除此之外,當我們回顧 2023 年時,我們 60% 的收入來自購買優質內容的客戶,這些內容是優質席位或圍繞優質席位的更大靈活性。在我們總客戶群中,15% 是非優勢,約 45% 是優勢。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Yes. That's helpful. And then the second question is really a bigger longer-term question on potential cost savings, and it relates to the transition to the cloud. I'm wondering where American is at with respect to that transition -- and what kind of cost savings that could ultimately represent on an annual run rate? So is it tens of millions, hundreds of millions or maybe somewhere in between?

    是的。這很有幫助。第二個問題實際上是一個關於潛在成本節省的更大的長期問題,它與向雲端的過渡有關。我想知道美國航空在這一轉變方面處於什麼位置,以及最終可以在年度運行率上節省什麼樣的成本?那麼是數千萬、數億還是介於兩者之間?

  • Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

    Vasu S. Raja - Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer

  • Dan, let me start on this one as maybe Devon or others can pick up. But this is actually a great one, which we look forward to talking about more in our Investor Day. We are operating the entirety of the company with a tech-first mindset. This is one of many initiatives, but by no means the biggest as promising as it is, as you've laid out. So more to come soon.

    丹,讓我從這個開始,也許德文郡或其他人可以接手。但這實際上是一件很棒的事情,我們期待在投資者日更多地討論這一點。我們以技術優先的心態經營整個公司。這是眾多舉措之一,但絕不是像您所闡述的那樣最有希望的舉措。很快就會有更多內容。

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • And Vasu, I'll just add that, look, all that kind of work will be a facilitator to delivering product faster, more efficiently. And so that's the kind of mindset. So we're not -- I'd rather not talk about it just as a discrete item. We'll bring it all together as we get to March 4.

    Vasu,我只想補充一點,所有這些工作都將有助於更快、更有效率地交付產品。這就是這種心態。所以我們不是——我不想把它當作一個獨立的項目來談論。我們將在 3 月 4 日之前將所有內容整合在一起。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Our first question comes from the line of Alison Sider of Wall Street Journal.

    我們的第一個問題來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德(Alison Sider)。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • I was wondering what is your level of confidence in Boeing's current leadership?

    我想知道您對波音目前的領導地位有多少信心?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Ali. Look, a couple of quick things. First off, some of Boeing's current issues are all around the MAX 9 and 737-900s. American Airlines does not fly those aircraft. We're a huge Boeing customer, though, and we're dependent on them for just producing.

    阿里.看,有幾件事。首先,波音目前的一些問題都與 MAX 9 和 737-900 有關。美國航空不營運這些飛機。不過,我們是波音的大客戶,我們的生產依賴他們。

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • We're going to hold them accountable. Boeing needs to get their act together the issues that they've been dealing with over the recent period of time, but also going back a number of years now, is unacceptable. And no matter who it is, all of Boeing needs to come together and to get back on the right track.

    我們將追究他們的責任。波音公司需要採取行動,解決他們最近一段時間一直在處理的問題,但現在回溯到幾年前,這是不可接受的。無論是誰,波音公司的所有人都需要團結起來,回到正確的軌道。

  • Alison Sider

    Alison Sider

  • And the production limits at the FAA announced last night to the MAX, do you expect that to have any impact on deliveries for American? I mean do you think that, that makes sense for Boeing?

    FAA 昨晚向 MAX 宣布了生產限制,您預計這會對美國航空的交付產生任何影響嗎?我的意思是,您認為這對波音公司有意義嗎?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • So look, we will encourage Boeing to do everything that they can to get back on track and produce a quality product. Plain and simple. For us, we have a fleet right now of over 1,500 aircrafts. So we have 20 MAX 8s that are on the horizon for this next year. These aircraft are likely already in production and I don't anticipate to run in any issues.

    因此,我們將鼓勵波音公司盡一切努力回到正軌並生產優質產品。乾淨俐落。對我們來說,我們目前擁有超過 1,500 架飛機的機隊。因此,我們明年將推出 20 台 MAX 8。這些飛機可能已經投入生產,我預計不會有任何問題。

  • But I'll say this as well, though, nobody has taken on more new aircraft than American Airlines, in recent history. And we take that acceptance process very, very seriously. We've done that for years. We have the teams of people in place to make sure that what comes on to American's property is ready to go, ready to fly. And as I said before, we encourage Boeing to get their act together, get back on the right track.

    但我也要這麼說,在近代史上,沒有人比美國航空擁有更多的新飛機。我們非常非常認真地對待這個驗收過程。我們已經這麼做很多年了。我們的團隊已到位,以確保美國航空的財產已準備就緒,準備起飛。正如我之前所說,我們鼓勵波音公司齊心協力,回到正確的軌道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mary Schlangenstein of Bloomberg News.

    我們的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的瑪麗‧施蘭根斯坦。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • Just to follow up on that. As you continue to talk to OEMs about a potential narrowbody order this year are the things that are occurring at Boeing right now? Is that having any impact at all as you think about placing that order?

    只是為了跟進此事。當您繼續與原始設備製造商討論今年潛在的窄體機訂單時,波音現在正在發生什麼?當您考慮下訂單時,這有什麼影響嗎?

  • And then also wondering if you think that the federal officials are taking the right steps and looking at Boeing, they've said they may expand to other production lines in the MAX. Do you see them taking the right steps? Or would you like to see them doing something different, maybe going even stronger on new requirements from Boeing?

    然後還想知道您是否認為聯邦官員正在採取正確的步驟並關注波音,他們表示可能會擴展到 MAX 的其他生產線。您認為他們採取了正確的步驟嗎?或者您希望看到他們做一些不同的事情,也許會根據波音的新要求變得更強?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • So Mary, thanks for the questions. Let me just start with this first. Administrator Whitaker. We have incredible confidence in. He is the right person for the job right now, and I'm very, very confident that he will hold all of us, but especially Boeing accountable for what they do. And to that end, I think that's the right approach.

    瑪麗,謝謝你的提問。讓我先從這個開始。行政長官惠特克。我們對他有難以置信的信心。他現在是這份工作的合適人選,我非常非常有信心他會讓我們所有人,尤其是波音公司,對他們所做的事情負責。為此,我認為這是正確的方法。

  • Look, aviation in the United States, aviation throughout the world, it's the safest form of transportation. We have a commitment to keep it that way and Boeing has to be part of that equation. Now as we take a look at future needs for aircraft, again, American Airlines is -- we have 1,500 aircraft and a lot of the growth that we've been talking about is getting claims back up in the air that we could get more utilization out of. So we're fortunate from that perspective.

    你看,航空在美國,航空在全世界,它是最安全的交通方式。我們承諾保持這種狀態,而波音也必須成為這一等式的一部分。現在,當我們再次審視未來對飛機的需求時,美國航空 - 我們擁有 1,500 架飛機,我們一直在談論的大部分增長都是為了讓我們能夠獲得更多利用率的空中聲明重新出現在... ....之外。所以從這個角度來看我們是幸運的。

  • We're also fortunate to be the operator of the world's largest fleet of Airbus aircraft. So look, we need Boeing to be successful over the long run. They've got to get their act together. We need all OEMs to do their job. It's hard enough running an airline. We need quality product, and that's what we demand.

    我們也很幸運能夠成為世界上最大的空中巴士機隊的營運商。所以看,從長遠來看,我們需要波音公司才能成功。他們必須齊心協力。我們需要所有 OEM 廠商做好他們的工作。經營航空公司已經夠難的了。我們需要優質的產品,這就是我們的要求。

  • Mary Schlangenstein

    Mary Schlangenstein

  • So can you comment on whether what's going on at Boeing will reflect your ultimate decision on a narrowbody order?

    那麼,您能否評論一下波音公司的情況是否會反映您對窄體機訂單的最終決定?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • We'll take -- look, we take the acquisition of new aircraft, bringing new aircraft on to American sleep very seriously, and we're going to make sure that whatever is purchased, whether it be from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, you name it. That's something we take very seriously and we're going to make sure that, that product is incredibly reliable, safe right from the get-go right off the factory floor.

    我們會非常認真地對待新飛機的採購,讓新飛機進入美國人的睡眠,我們將確保購買的任何東西,無論是來自空中巴士、波音、巴西航空工業公司,命名它。這是我們非常重視的事情,我們將確保產品從工廠車間一開始就非常可靠且安全。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Leslie Josephs of CNBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的萊斯利·約瑟夫斯 (Leslie Josephs)。

  • Leslie Josephs

    Leslie Josephs

  • Are you increasing your oversight personally at Boeing? And do you see that as a permanent change just given that it's kind of been one issue after another? And then just another question, is Boeing providing any compensation, whether cash or other form of discounts or anything else because of the issue and the FAA blocking any further production that could impact deliveries?

    您是否會加強對波音公司的個人監督?考慮到這是一個接一個的問題,您是否認為這是一個永久性的變化?另一個問題是,波音是否會因為這個問題而提供任何補償,無論是現金還是其他形式的折扣或其他任何形式,而美國聯邦航空局阻止任何可能影響交付的進一步生產?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Leslie, look, as I've said before, American Airlines has taken more new aircraft than anyone in really the history of commercial aviation over the last 10 years. And on that front, we've had to deal with quality issues that we've had to make sure that we were protected against. And so from that perspective, we have a very robust aircraft acceptance process with people that are dedicated to that, and we're going to make sure that whatever we take from any manufacturer, and especially Boeing, that we have the right resources to ensure that they meet our specifications and are ready to go when they come into our fleet. Then I'll leave it at that.

    萊斯利,你看,正如我之前所說,美國航空公司在過去 10 年裡購買的新飛機比商業航空史上任何航空公司都多。在這方面,我們必須處理品質問題,並確保我們受到保護。因此,從這個角度來看,我們有一個非常健全的飛機驗收流程,有專門的人員,我們將確保無論我們從任何製造商(尤其是波音)那裡獲得什麼,我們都有適當的資源來確保他們符合我們的規格,並在進入我們的車隊時準備好出發。那我就到此為止吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude the Q&A portion of our call. I would now like to turn the conference back to Robert Isom for closing remarks. Sir?

    我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。現在我想請羅伯特·伊索姆(Robert Isom)致閉幕詞。先生?

  • Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

    Robert D. Isom - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Latif. Look, 2023 was an exceptional year for us. It was another year of building back from the pandemic, and I'm really proud of what the team has done. They've established us as the industry leader in reliability. We've restored the airline of profitability. We produced record free cash flow last year. We've got a year -- another year of really making sure that we continue the progress.

    謝謝,拉蒂夫。看,2023 年對我們來說是不平凡的一年。這是從大流行中恢復過來的另一年,我對團隊所做的事情感到非常自豪。他們使我們成為可靠性方面的行業領導者。我們已經恢復了航空公司的獲利能力。去年我們創造了創紀錄的自由現金流。我們還有一年——又一年的時間來真正確保我們繼續取得進展。

  • It's a year that we're still recovering from the pandemic, and we're going to have to see how demand and capacity (inaudible). But as I've said even earlier today, we expect demand to be very strong. The spring and summer, I think, are going to be exceptional times for us in terms of demand for product.

    今年我們仍在從大流行中恢復,我們將不得不看看需求和產能如何(聽不清楚)。但正如我今天早些時候所說,我們預計需求將非常強勁。我認為,就產品需求而言,春季和夏季對我們來說將是特殊時期。

  • As we look forward, I'm very interested in sitting down with folks and talking on March 4 at our Investor Day and talking about the future of American, building on that platform showing how we have changed and that we are -- we have a mindset of producing for our customers, taking care of our team and also making sure that we reward shareholders. More on that in the next month, and everybody take care and we'll talk soon.

    展望未來,我非常有興趣在 3 月 4 日的投資者日與大家坐下來討論美國航空的未來,在這個平台上展示我們的變化以及我們的情況——我們有一個為客戶生產、照顧我們的團隊並確保回報股東的心態。下個月會有更多相關內容,請大家注意,我們很快就會討論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。