以星航運 (ZIM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Emma, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the ZIM Q1 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我是艾瑪，您的合唱呼叫接線員。歡迎並感謝您參加以星 2021 年第一季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Elana Holzman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Elana Holzman。請繼續。

Thank you, Emma, and welcome to ZIM's First Quarter 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Eli Glickman, ZIM's President and CEO; and Xavier Destriau, ZIM's CFO.

謝謝艾瑪，歡迎參加以星 2021 年第一季財務業績電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是以星 (ZIM) 總裁兼執行長 Eli Glickman；以及以星集團財務長 Xavier Destriau。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events or results. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We wish to caution you that such statements reflect only the company's current expectations and that actual events or results may differ including materially.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們將就期望、預測、預測或未來事件或結果做出前瞻性陳述。我們相信我們的期望和假設是合理的。我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅反映公司目前的預期，實際事件或結果可能會有所不同，包括重大差異。

You are kindly referred to consider the risk factors and cautionary language described in the documents the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 2020 Annual Report filed on Form 20-F on March 22, 2021. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

請您考慮本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的風險因素和警示性語言，包括我們於2021 年3 月22 日以20-F 表格提交的2020 年年度報告。義務前瞻性陳述。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Eli Glickman. Eli?

此時，我想將電話轉給 Eli Glickman。伊萊？

Thank you, Elana, and welcome to today's call. It is truly a momentous time in ZIM's 75-year history. I'm excited to share with you our impressive year-to-date accomplishments as well as the important steps we've taken to unlock significant shareholder value.

謝謝你，埃拉娜，歡迎參加今天的電話會議。這確實是以星 75 年歷史上的一個重要時刻。我很高興與您分享我們今年迄今所取得的令人印象深刻的成就，以及我們為釋放重要股東價值所採取的重要步驟。

Following our successful IPO to become the first global container liner to list in the United States, we've continued our strong trajectory, which we outlined on Slide #4. First, our differentiated approach and a proactive strategy we implemented to capitalize on the highly attractive market have once again produced record results. For the second consecutive quarter, we generated all-time record EBITDA and net profit, with net profit for Q1 2021 higher than for the full year of 2020. Again, net profit for Q1 2021 higher than for the full year of 2020.

在我們成功首次公開募股並成為第一家在美國上市的全球貨櫃班輪公司之後，我們繼續保持強勁的發展軌跡，正如我們在幻燈片 #4 中概述的那樣。首先，我們為利用極具吸引力的市場而實施的差異化方法和積極主動的策略再次取得了創紀錄的成果。我們連續第二季創造了歷史最高的 EBITDA 和淨利潤，其中 2021 年第一季的淨利潤高於 2020 年全年。

We are pleased to report that our consistent earning growth position ZIM as one of the leading carriers in terms of profitability. We also delivered our highest operating cash flow ever of $777 million. Notably, our Q1 2021 EBIT and EBITDA result were well above the implied guidance range that we provided in March 2021.

我們很高興地報告，我們持續的獲利成長使以星成為獲利能力領先的承運商之一。我們也實現了有史以來最高的營運現金流，達 7.77 億美元。值得注意的是，我們 2021 年第一季的 EBIT 和 EBITDA 結果遠高於我們在 2021 年 3 月提供的隱含指引範圍。

Importantly, we continued to deliver industry-leading margins, and once again, outperformed the liner industry average. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was our highest ever, 47%, again, 47%; and adjusted EBIT margin was also our highest ever, 39%, again, 39%. We remain committed to our goal of consistently performing as one of the top 3 carriers in terms of EBIT margin. We also significantly strengthened our balance sheet. And today, our shareholder equity is more than $1 billion.

重要的是，我們繼續提供領先業界的利潤率，並再次超過班輪行業平均水平。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為有史以來最高的 47%，再次是 47%；調整後的息稅前利潤率也是我們有史以來的最高水平，39%，再次是 39%。我們仍然致力於實現始終成為息稅前利潤率排名前三的營運商之一的目標。我們也顯著加強了我們的資產負債表。如今，我們的股東權益已超過 10 億美元。

Based on our strong first quarter performance, the robust market environment and the full completion of our freight contracts at higher rates, which we will discuss later, we are raising our 2021 guidance. Specifically, we now expect to generate 2021 EBITDA between $2.5 billion to $2.8 billion and EBIT between $1.85 billion to $2.15 billion. This is up from our March '21 exceptional of EBITDA in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion and EBIT in the range of $850 million to $1.05 billion.

基於我們強勁的第一季業績、強勁的市場環境以及以更高的價格全面完成貨運合約（我們將在稍後討論），我們正在上調 2021 年的指導。具體來說，我們現在預計 2021 年的 EBITDA 為 25 億至 28 億美元，息稅前利潤為 18.5 億至 21.5 億美元。這高於我們21 年3 月的EBITDA（息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤）在14 億美元至16 億美元之間的數據，以及EBIT（息稅前利潤）在8.5 億美元至10.5 億美元之間的數據。

Our record result in the first quarter enabled us to achieve another important milestone for the shareholders. Based on our strong cash flow in Q1, we will redeem the entire $340 million principal amount outstanding on our Series 1 and 2 notes, eliminating the restriction we faced on paying a dividend on account of 2020 profit. We are proud to achieve this important accomplishment sooner than expected and earlier than the stated maturity by 2 whole years, further strengthen our balance sheet and enhancing ZIM's position to take advantage of favorable fundamentals for the benefit of shareholders.

第一季創紀錄的業績使我們為股東實現了另一個重要的里程碑。基於第一季強勁的現金流，我們將贖回系列 1 和系列 2 票據的全部 3.4 億美元未償本金，從而消除我們因 2020 年利潤支付股息而面臨的限制。我們很自豪能夠比預期更早、比規定期限提前兩年實現這一重要成就，進一步強化我們的資產負債表，並增強以星的地位，利用有利的基本面為股東謀取利益。

As a result, and taking into consideration our improved outlook that is even better than we previously anticipated as well as our success capitalizing on the attractive market, we are pleased to announce that our Board of Directors approved the distribution of a special dividend of approximately $240 million or $2 per share in 2021. Importantly, this special dividend come on top of our previously communicated 2021 annual dividend guidance, whereby we are expecting to be distributing between 30% to 50% of 2021 net income in 2022. Our first quarter financial results reflect our consistent earnings growth, and as I already mentioned, are well above the implied guidance we provided last quarter.

因此，考慮到我們的前景比我們之前預期的更好，以及我們成功利用有吸引力的市場，我們很高興地宣布，我們的董事會批准分配約 240 美元的特別股息2021 年每股200 萬美元或每股2 美元。的財務表現反映了我們持續的獲利成長，正如我已經提到的，遠高於我們上季度提供的隱含指引。

As you can see, on Slide #5, our leverage continued to trend downward. ZIM's net leverage improved from 5-point -- excuse me, from 5.3x to 0.5x over the previous 9 quarters, positioning us in the top tier of the industry. Sustainable growth remains a top priority for ZIM, and we remain focused on being one of the top 3 players in terms of EBIT margin among the global carriers.

正如您所看到的，在幻燈片#5 上，我們的槓桿率繼續呈下降趨勢。 ZIM 的淨槓桿率從過去 9 個季度的 5.3 倍提高到 0.5 倍，從 5 個百分點提高到了行業領先水平。永續成長仍然是以星的首要任務，我們仍然致力於成為全球營運商中息稅前利潤率排名前三的參與者之一。

Moving to the next slide, Slide #6. We made significant progress year-to-date advancing major initiatives, with notable achievement related to our 4 strategic pillars: operational and commercial agility, operational excellence, and leading innovation and digitalization in shipping industry. First, for ZIM, our exceptional operational agilities allow us to successfully compete with global shipping giant as we implement our differentiated asset-light and global niche model.

轉到下一張投影片，投影片 #6。年初至今，我們在推動重大舉措方面取得了重大進展，在四大戰略支柱方面取得了顯著成就：營運和商業敏捷性、卓越營運以及航運業的領先創新和數位化。首先，對於以星來說，我們卓越的營運敏捷性使我們能夠在實施差異化的輕資產和全球利基模式的同時，成功地與全球航運巨頭競爭。

The benefits of this approach were demonstrated as we adapted our vessel deployment to address dramatic change in the demand since early 2020, in response to the COVID and the subsequent recovery in demand. Prior to COVID, our fleet includes 68 vessels, which will come down to 59 in May of 2020. As global trade resumes and caught up to pre-pandemic levels, we're identifying new opportunities and expanded our capacity, growing our fleet to 98 vessels at mid March.

當我們調整船舶部署以應對自 2020 年初以來需求的巨大變化、應對新冠疫情和隨後的需求復甦時，這種方法的好處得到了證明。在新冠疫情爆發之前，我們的船隊包括68 艘船舶，到2020 年5 月將減少到59 艘。運力，將我們的船隊數量增加到98 艘3月中旬有船。

Today, our fleet includes over 110 vessels as we continue to quickly align our capacity in the past few months to make continued growth in demand despite the very tight chartering market. Related to our success, increasing our capacity, we drew on our commercial agility to identify market opportunities and develop new growth engines. Importantly, we expand in our strategic Pacific and intra-Asia trades, opening new services to address profitable underserved routes.

如今，我們的船隊擁有 110 多艘船舶，儘管租船市場非常緊張，但我們在過去幾個月中繼續快速調整我們的運力，以實現需求的持續成長。與我們的成功、提高產能相關，我們利用商業靈活性來識別市場機會並開發新的成長引擎。重要的是，我們擴大了太平洋和亞洲內部的策略貿易，開闢新的服務來解決獲利能力不足的航線。

In 2020, we identified the opportunity for premium high-speed services to meet growing e-commerce trends and provide viable shipping alternative to airfreight. In the first quarter of 2021, we launched additional lines to meet growing acceptance of this offering. This e-commerce services, including 3 from Asia to the U.S. West Coast, are instrumental in driving our record Q1 results and positive forward outlook.

2020 年，我們發現了優質高速服務的機會，以滿足不斷增長的電子商務趨勢，並提供可行的空運替代運輸方式。 2021 年第一季度，我們推出了更多產品線，以滿足人們對該產品日益增長的接受度。這些電子商務服務（包括從亞洲到美國西海岸的 3 項）對於推動我們創紀錄的第一季業績和積極的未來前景發揮了重要作用。

Through our partnership with the 2M Alliance, Maersk and MSC, we will further strengthen our transpacific presence, a key trade for us; launching a joint Asia-U.S. East Coast lane service to commence this month. In addition, we have worked with our partners to upgrade our Asia to the U.S. Gulf coastline service by upsizing vessel capacity.

透過與 2M 聯盟、馬士基和 MSC 的合作，我們將進一步加強我們的跨太平洋業務，這是我們的一項關鍵貿易；發起亞美聯合行動東海岸車道服務將於本月開始。此外，我們還與合作夥伴合作，透過擴大船舶運力來升級我們的亞洲至美國墨西哥灣海岸線服務。

Another of ZIM's primary strengths is our operational excellence. A key component of this sustainability, we are committed to responsible corporate citizenship with a particular focus on implementing policies and initiatives that help mitigate the impact of our operations on our planet. Consistent with this critical objective, we moved quickly, as promised in our IPO roadshow and 2 weeks after pricing, we announced the conclusion of a strategic long-term charter agreement with Seaspan. In February, we announced for 10 green 15,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel vessels. We are proud that this transaction will position ZIM as a leader in terms of carbon intensity among global liners.

以星的另一個主要優勢是卓越的營運。作為永續發展的關鍵組成部分，我們致力於履行負責任的企業公民義務，特別注重實施有助於減輕我們的營運對地球影響的政策和措施。為了實現這一關鍵目標，我們迅速採取行動，正如我們在 IPO 路演中所承諾的那樣，定價後兩週，我們宣布與 Seaspan 簽訂戰略性長期包機協議。 2 月份，我們宣佈建造 10 艘綠色 15,000 TEU 液化天然氣雙燃料船。我們感到自豪的是，這項交易將使以星集團成為全球班輪公司碳強度的領導者。

Other key features of our operational excellence include our continued emphasis on effectively managing costs and our equipment needs. Given our significant growth, combined with the current congested market and limited availability of containers, we have made substantial investment in new equipment, already starting in 2020, to best position ZIM for the future.

我們卓越營運的其他關鍵特徵包括我們持續強調有效管理成本和設備需求。鑑於我們的顯著成長，加上當前市場擁擠和貨櫃供應有限，我們從 2020 年開始對新設備進行了大量投資，以使以星未來處於最佳位置。

Since January 1, we have entered into agreement for the purchase of containers, mostly new built units, for a total of approximately $588 million and we will grow our container fleet from approximately 640,000 TEU as of the end of March 2020 to exceed 900,000 TEU to at year-end to both meet our growing business and address challenges caused by port congestion.

自 1 月 1 日起，我們已簽訂總價值約 5.88 億美元的貨櫃採購協議，主要是新建貨櫃，我們的貨櫃船隊規模將從截至 2020 年 3 月底的約 640,000 TEU 增加到超過 900,000 TEU。 年底。 ，以滿足我們不斷成長的業務並解決港口擁堵帶來的挑戰。

Finally, we have continued to invest in disruptive technology, further establishing ZIM as a leading digital shipping company. In March, we announced our participation in Series B financing round of WAVE BL, a developer of groundbreaking blockchain-based platform, supporting paperless trend in the shipping industry. We view our early investment in WAVE BL in 2017 as a major win, as our objective since inception was for suborder industry adoption. We are delighted to see the growing acceptance of WAVE technology, including by other global carriers.

最後，我們持續投資顛覆性技術，進一步將以星星打造為領先的數位航運公司。 3月份，我們宣布參與WAVE BL的B輪融資，WAVE BL是一家突破性區塊鏈平台開發商，支持航運業的無紙化趨勢。我們認為 2017 年對 WAVE BL 的早期投資是重大勝利，因為我們自成立以來的目標就是促進子訂單產業的採用。我們很高興看到 WAVE 技術越來越被接受，包括其他全球營運商。

Most recently, we established ZIMARK, a tech company that we expect will revolutionize scanning base on its colorful market, long-range scanning capabilities and ability to scan multiple items simultaneously. We are excited about ZIMARK's potential to impact shipping and broader logistics sectors, consistent with landmark innovation that will transform other industry.

最近，我們成立了 ZIMARK，這是一家科技公司，我們預計該公司將憑藉其豐富多彩的市場、遠端掃描功能以及同時掃描多個物品的能力，徹底改變掃描基礎。我們對 ZIMARK 影響航運和更廣泛的物流行業的潛力感到興奮，這與將改變其他行業的里程碑式創新相一致。

We are proud of the progress we have made renovating ZIM as a resilient and robust digital shipping company that utilizes sophisticated digital strategies to power new services and build opportunities for our customers.

我們對以星轉型為一家富有彈性且穩健的數位航運公司所取得的進展感到自豪，該公司利用先進的數位化策略來推動新服務並為客戶創造機會。

I will now turn the call over to Xavier, our CFO, for his comments on our financial results and market development. Please.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的財務長澤維爾，請他對我們的財務表現和市場發展發表評論。請。

Thank you. Thank you, Eli, and again, welcome, everyone, to our quarterly update. I will now briefly discuss our KPI-specific Q1 figures and our strong cash position. Additionally, I would like to first reiterate Eli's comments on our success during the quarter, drawing on our differentiated model and proactive strategies to generate record results.

謝謝。謝謝你，伊萊，再次歡迎大家觀看我們的季度更新。我現在將簡要討論我們第一季的具體 KPI 數據和我們強勁的現金狀況。此外，我想先重申 Eli 對我們在本季度取得的成功的評論，利用我們的差異化模式和積極主動的策略來創造創紀錄的業績。

On Slide 7, I would like to highlight several KPIs that are reflective of our outstanding financial performance, including strong cash generation and the continued deleveraging of our balance sheet. We continued to benefit from our asset-light model as well as our prioritization of a better paying cargo mix and initiatives to capitalize on the e-commerce boom, while providing our customers with the best service, which allowed us to earn premium rates compared to the average of the market. This was critical to drive our record results as the average freight rate per TEU rose by 76% in Q1 2021 to $1,925 per TEU compared to $1,091 in the comparable quarter in 2020, and 27% higher than the average freight rates of $1,518 in Q4 2020.

在投影片 7 上，我想強調幾個反映我們出色財務表現的關鍵績效指標，包括強勁的現金產生能力和資產負債表的持續去槓桿化。我們繼續受益於我們的輕資產模式，以及我們優先考慮更好的支付貨物組合和利用電子商務繁榮的舉措，同時為我們的客戶提供最好的服務，這使我們能夠獲得與其他航空公司相比較高的費率。這對於推動我們創紀錄的業績至關重要，因為每TEU 的平均運費在2021 年第一季上漲了76%，達到每TEU 1,925 美元，而2020 年同期為1,091 美元，比2020 年第四季的平均運費1,518 美元高出27% 。

Regarding our balance sheet, we significantly increased our cash position, which I will discuss shortly. Our shareholder equity today is of $1.1 billion. Total outstanding debt in the first quarter increased by $302 million, resulting from a net increase of $389 million related to lease liabilities, almost entirely reflecting us successfully fixing additional long-term charters in the quarter, a very tight market. That is partially offset by a net decrease in financial debt, mainly related to the early repayment of tranche C that we already made in March.

關於我們的資產負債表，我們顯著增加了現金頭寸，我很快就會討論這一點。目前我們的股東權益為 11 億美元。第一季的未償債務總額增加了3.02 億美元，這是由於與租賃負債相關的淨增加了3.89 億美元，這幾乎完全反映了我們在本季度（市場非常緊張）成功確定了額外的長期租約。這被金融債務的淨減少部分抵消，這主要與我們三月已經支付的 C 部分的提前償還有關。

We also continued to improve our leverage ratio, which decreased to 0.5x. Our free cash flow totaled $643 million compared to $390 million in Q4 2020. That represents a 64% increase.

我們也持續提高槓桿率，已降至 0.5 倍。我們的自由現金流總計 6.43 億美元，而 2020 年第四季為 3.9 億美元。

Moving on to Slide 8. Our ability to take advantage of changing market conditions continues to prove effective and is clearly evidenced by the year-over-year improvement in our financial metrics. Looking at our top line, total revenues in the first quarter were $1.7 billion compared to $823 million in Q1 2020, a 112% increase. Even more importantly, we grew profitably, successfully promoting better paying cargo as we continuously seek to prioritize profitability over mere additional volume and market share.

繼續看投影片 8。從營收來看，第一季的總營收為 17 億美元，與 2020 年第一季的 8.23 億美元相比，成長了 112%。更重要的是，我們實現了獲利成長，成功地推廣了更優質的貨運，因為我們不斷尋求將獲利能力置於單純的銷售和市場份額之上。

Net profit was a record $590 million in the first quarter compared to a $12 million loss in Q1 2020. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter also significantly increased to $821 million compared to $97 million in Q1 2020. Adjusted EBIT increased to $688 million in the first quarter compared to $27 million in the comparable quarter in 2020.

第一季淨利達到創紀錄的5.9 億美元，而2020 年第一季虧損1,200 萬美元。一季調整後息稅前利潤增至6.88 億美元相較之下，2020 年同期為 2,700 萬美元。

As Eli already mentioned, these results were an all-time high and well above the implied guidance range that we provided in March. Importantly, consistent with our strategic focus and asset-light approach, ZIM's adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins continued to position us among the top performers of the industry. Q1 2021 EBITDA and EBIT margins stood at 47% and 39%, respectively.

正如 Eli 已經提到的，這些結果創下歷史新高，遠高於我們三月提供的隱含指導範圍。重要的是，與我們的策略重點和輕資產方法一致，以星調整後的 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率繼續使我們躋身行業最佳表現者之列。 2021 年第一季 EBITDA 和 EBIT 利潤率分別為 47% 和 39%。

Our first quarter 2021 results also include increased tax expenses, totaling $54 million. Out of this amount, $34 million related to deferred tax expenses, i.e., noncash, mostly related to carryforward losses previously recognized as assets. Furthermore, in light of our current and expected performance for the full year, we reassessed our entire carryforward tax losses, and we now expect to utilize all of them in 2021.

我們 2021 年第一季的業績還包括增加的稅收支出，總計 5,400 萬美元。其中，3,400 萬美元與遞延稅務支出（即非現金）相關，主要與先前確認為資產的結轉損失相關。此外，根據我們目前和全年的預期業績，我們重新評估了全部結轉稅損失，我們現在預計在 2021 年將使用全部結轉稅損失。

Turning to Slide 9. Our increased carried volume is a direct result of our proactive efforts to launch new expedited services as a response to identify growth in demand and our enhanced position in the Pacific trade. It is especially noticeable given the seasonality traditionally associated with Q1 volume due to the Chinese New Year. You can see that our carried volume year-over-year increased by 28% from 638,000 TEUs in the first quarter of last year to 818,000 TEUs in the current quarter, though it should be noted that Q1 2020 volumes were already negatively impacted by the then emerging pandemic. This was driven primarily by growth in the intra-Asia and Pacific trades.

轉向投影片 9。考慮到傳統上與中國新年相關的第一季銷量的季節性，這一點尤其引人注目。您可以看到，我們的運載量年增了28%，從去年第一季的638,000 個標準箱增加到本季度的818,000 個標準箱，但值得注意的是，2020 年第一季的運量已經受到了當時的負面影響。這主要是由亞太地區內部貿易的成長所推動的。

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, our volume increased by 2%, with our expanded presence in intra-Asia contributing most significantly to the increase. For the full year, we now anticipate current volume growth of circa 30% as compared to 2020, whereas the industry is expected to grow by 4% to 5%.

與 2020 年第四季相比，我們的銷量成長了 2%，其中我們在亞洲區內業務的擴張對這一成長做出了最顯著的貢獻。就全年而言，我們目前預計當前銷量較 2020 年增長約 30%，而行業預計增長 4% 至 5%。

Consequently, given our growth expectations and in light of the current congested market and limited availability of containers, we contracted for $588 million of equipment to be delivered during the year. Containers in the amount of $104 million were already delivered in the first quarter. Based on our robust cash flow, we made the prudent capital allocation decision to purchase this equipment out of cash rather than rely on more expensive leasing solutions.

因此，考慮到我們的成長預期以及當前市場擁擠和貨櫃供應有限，我們簽訂了年內交付價值 5.88 億美元的設備合約。第一季已交付價值 1.04 億美元的貨櫃。基於我們強勁的現金流，我們做出了審慎的資本配置決定，以現金購買該設備，而不是依賴更昂貴的租賃解決方案。

Moving on to Slide 10. Regarding our cash generation, we started 2021 with a consolidated cash position of $570 million. During the quarter, our adjusted EBITDA stood at $821 million. Taking into account the decrease of $50 million of working capital and other, $134 million of investing cash flow, $224 million of debt service, we finished the quarter with $983 million of cash, excluding IPO proceeds, and including IPO proceeds we ended the quarter with $1.2 billion.

前往投影片 10。本季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 8.21 億美元。考慮到營運資本和其他減少 5,000 萬美元、投資現金流減少 1.34 億美元、償債金額減少 2.24 億美元，本季末我們的現金為 9.83 億美元，不包括 IPO 收益，包括本季末的 IPO 收益12億美元。

Now I will review the strong market fundamentals that we continue to see in the liner sector and our positive view going forward.

現在我將回顧我們在班輪行業繼續看到的強勁的市場基本面以及我們對未來的積極看法。

Moving to Slide 11. On this slide, we show that market supply-demand fundamentals remain very positive. In terms of supply, even taking into account the recent ordering, the order book is still historically low. Combined with strong demand, these dynamics have elevated both charter hire and freight rates.

轉到投影片 11。供應方面，即使考慮到近期的訂單，訂單量仍處於歷史低點。加上強勁的需求，這些動態提高了包機租金和運費。

Specifically, while newbuildings on order, including those recently placed by carriers, have risen to 17% of the total deployed capacity, this is still a significantly lower level versus prior years. Due to the lead time for vessels newbuilding, we have quite a firm outlook on the supply forecast moving forward. Though the order book grew from its lowest level of 8% back in October 2020, we do continue to view supply-demand fundamentals as favorable, particularly given demand growth expectations.

具體來說，雖然新訂單（包括營運商最近訂購的新船）已升至已部署總運力的 17%，但這仍明顯低於前幾年的水平。由於新造船舶的交貨時間較長，我們對未來的供應預測相當堅定。儘管訂單量從 2020 年 10 月的最低水準 8% 成長，但我們仍然認為供需基本面有利，特別是考慮到需求成長預期。

Based on an upwardly revised forecast in April, the IMF now projects that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021. The low order book, combined with robust demand, has resulted in higher freight rates, which in turn have also allowed for increased charter higher rates as shipping companies are seeking to secure (inaudible).

根據 4 月向上修正的預測，國際貨幣基金組織目前預計 2021 年全球經濟將成長 6%。的租船費率（聽不清楚）。

Moving on to Slide 12. Supporting our sustained market strengths, demand is expected to surpass supply growth during 2021, according to Drewry. The port handling forecast suggests 8.7% and 4.7% growth for 2021 and 2022, respectively. This translates into a positive supply-demand picture, as seen in the chart on the right side of Slide 12. Drewry expects its supply-demand index to strengthen to 104.8 in 2021 due to increased port congestion and an expected demand bounce in excess of nominal fleet capacity growth. This reflects GDP forecasts that are more optimistic than 3 months ago, with the exception that consumer demand -- sorry, with the expectation that consumer demand for durable goods will remain strong.

繼續看投影片 12。港口吞吐量預測預計 2021 年和 2022 年將分別成長 8.7% 和 4.7%。這轉化為積極的供需情況，如幻燈片 12 右側的圖表所示。這反映出 GDP 預測比 3 個月前更為樂觀，但消費者需求除外——抱歉，消費者對耐用品的需求將保持強勁。

There is also the possibility of further demand growth as widespread vaccine rollouts continue globally. And in this upside scenario, Drewry anticipates a possible stronger boost to the consumer and company's confidence and its world port handling forecast for 2021 would then rise to a 10% growth.

隨著疫苗在全球範圍內繼續廣泛推廣，需求也有可能進一步增長。在這種樂觀的情況下，德魯裡預計消費者和公司的信心可能會得到更強勁的提振，其 2021 年世界港口吞吐量的預測將上升至 10%。

Turning to the next slide. Freight rates are well above the past decade average with little indication of a reversal in the near term. Rising charter hire trends are correlated with demand, as is also reflected in the high spot rates. Our long-term contract negotiations highlight elevated demand for capacity and the particular strength we saw in rates more recently. Even as we expanded our presence in the transpacific with the launch of new lines, we had to limit volume commitments due to the higher demand despite our higher volume offering.

轉到下一張投影片。運費遠高於過去十年的平均水平，短期內幾乎沒有出現逆轉的跡象。包機租金趨勢的上升與需求相關，高即期費率也反映了這一點。我們的長期合約談判凸顯了對運能需求的增加以及我們最近在費率方面看到的特殊優勢。儘管我們透過推出新航線擴大了在跨太平洋地區的業務，但由於需求增加，儘管我們提供的產量更高，但我們不得不限制產量承諾。

The long-term contracts, which took effect starting May 1, reflect an average rate increase of slightly above 50% when compared to 2020. With equipment shortages and port congestion persistence, we see freight rates remaining elevated through 2021. While vaccine rollouts should ease labor and productivity issues at ports, we expect, nevertheless, continued challenges related to handling more volume.

5 月1 日起生效的長期合約反映出，與2020 年相比，平均費率上漲略高於50%。的推出應該會有所緩解然而，我們預計港口的勞動力和生產力問題將繼續面臨與處理更多貨物相關的挑戰。

On the next slide, Slide 14, we address inventory and bunker prices. Retailers' inventory levels remain at the lowest in 20 years -- 28 years. We expect retailers to target the same inventory-to-sales ratio they had prior to the pandemic. Inventory levels have not yet been rebuilt despite the booming demand.

在下一張投影片（投影片 14）中，我們討論了庫存和燃料價格。零售商的庫存水準仍處於20年至28年來的最低水準。我們預期零售商的目標是與疫情大流行之前相同的庫存與銷售比率。儘管需求旺盛，但庫存水準尚未重建。

In terms of the impact on container demand, we continue to expect import growth for the entirety of 2021 to remain elevated compared to 2020, simply to rebuild inventories. The typical development in sales in the United States could, through inventory replenishment, sustain strong import container growth for the whole of 2021.

就對貨櫃需求的影響而言，我們繼續預計2021年全年進口成長將較2020年保持較高水平，只是為了重建庫存。透過補充庫存，美國銷售的典型發展可能會在 2021 年全年維持進口貨櫃的強勁成長。

Turning to the right side of the slide, the price of oil increased with expectations of a fuel demand recovery in the U.S. and Europe as lockdowns ease and economic activity picks back up. And we assumed slightly higher bunker prices when providing our current guidance as compared to our assumptions earlier this year.

轉向下滑的右側，隨著封鎖放鬆和經濟活動回升，美國和歐洲燃料需求將復甦的預期導致石油價格上漲。與今年早些時候的假設相比，我們在提供當前指導時假設燃油價格略高。

Turning to our full year outlook on Slide 15. As previously mentioned, based on our strong results, positive market view and the execution of our long-term contracts with customers under improved terms comparing to 2020, we now expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA within a range of between $2.5 billion to $2.8 billion and adjusted EBIT within the range of $1.85 billion to $2.15 billion. The underlying assumptions driving this improved outlook include expected higher average freight rates and charter costs as well as slightly higher volume and bunker rates as compared to our expectations and assumptions that prevailed when we provided our initial guidance in March.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的全年展望。在25 億美元至28 億美元之間，調整後的息稅前利潤在18.5 億美元至21.5 億美元範圍內。推動前景改善的基本假設包括，與我們在 3 月提供初步指引時的預期和假設相比，預期平均運費和租船成本較高，以及運量和燃油費率略高。

We already updated that our Board approved a $2 per share special dividend, and we are also reconfirming our intention to distribute between 30% to 50% of 2021 net profits to shareholders in 2022, subject to Board approval.

我們已經更新稱，董事會批准了每股 2 美元的特別股息，我們還再次確認，我們打算在 2022 年將 2021 年淨利潤的 30% 至 50% 分配給股東，但須經董事會批准。

And now I will hand over back to Eli for concluding remarks.

現在我將交回 Eli 進行總結發言。

Thank you, Xavier. Turning to Slide 17. We continue our path forward, enjoying significant momentum. I am extremely proud of our strong execution and significant accomplishment in just a few months since going public. As we continue to steam ahead, we'll further position ZIM as an innovative digital leader of seaborne transportation and logistics services. We'll advance our differentiated model and grow on our strong foundation of standard and professionals, our culture of innovation and our sustainability value to successfully operate in the 21st century. We will also maintain a relentless focus on fueling ZIM's goals, maximizing profitability into the future and creating long-term value.

謝謝你，澤維爾。轉向幻燈片 17。我對我們上市後短短幾個月內的強大執行力和重大成就感到非常自豪。隨著我們繼續前進，我們將進一步將以星定位為海運和物流服務的創新數位領導者。我們將推進我們的差異化模式，並在我們的標準和專業人士的堅實基礎、我們的創新文化和我們的永續發展價值觀的基礎上不斷發展，以便在 21 世紀成功運作。我們也將堅持不懈地致力於推動以星的目標，最大限度地提高未來的獲利能力並創造長期價值。

We will now open the call to your questions.

我們現在將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Randy Giveans with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Randy Giveans 和 Jefferies 的線路。

Congrats, obviously, on the record and epic quarter here. Can you talk about, first, the decision to declare the special dividend and how you decided on the $2 per share amount? And then also with the rising rates that we've been seeing, any reason why 2Q results would not exceed the results we've seen here in 1Q? And if improved, what are those additional plans for that free cash, more special dividends or more aggressive debt repayments?

顯然，祝賀創紀錄的史詩般的季度。您能否先談談宣派特別股息的決定以及您如何決定每股 2 美元的金額？然後，隨著我們看到的利率上升，為什麼第二季的結果不會超過我們在第一季看到的結果？如果有所改善，那麼關於自由現金、更多特別股息或更積極的債務償還的額外計劃是什麼？

Thank you, Randy. I will maybe start tackling your first question. The special dividend, you may remember that during the IPO, we communicated on our initial dividend policy, which was from 0% to 50%. And we also did mention that we were limited by the indenture by the documentation of the notes in our ability to distribute a dividend for distributable results or profits that we dated 2021.

謝謝你，蘭迪。我也許會開始解決你的第一個問題。特別股息，大家可能還記得，IPO的時候，我們溝通過我們的初始股息政策，是0%到50%。我們也確實提到，我們因票據文件的契約而限制了我們為 2021 年可分配績效或利潤分配股利的能力。

With the very strong first quarter that we are delivering now and the further testing of the cash sweep close as part of the indenture, we announced the full repayment of tranche C and D far earlier than what we initially anticipated. And that basically freed us completely from any restrictions with respect to dividend payment.

由於我們現在交付的第一季非常強勁，並且作為契約一部分的現金掃蕩的進一步測試結束，我們宣布全額償還 C 和 D 部分，遠遠早於我們最初的預期。這基本上使我們完全擺脫了股息支付方面的任何限制。

And so also combined with not only a strong first quarter, but a revised guidance in terms of outlook for 2021, which we've increased significantly by 70% to 80% compared to last time we addressed you. And we feel comfortable that there is no reason for us not to start distributing in 2021 as opposed to waiting, as we initially said in 2020. So today, the $2 per share, we believe, represents a good remuneration to our shareholders that entrusted us (technical difficulty).

因此，不僅結合了第一季的強勁表現，而且還結合了 2021 年展望的修訂指導，與上次向您發表講話相比，我們的指導大幅提高了 70% 至 80%。我們感到放心，我們沒有理由不在 2021 年開始分配，而不是等待，正如我們最初在 2020 年所說的那樣。 （技術難度）。

Addressing your second question, when it comes to the improved guidance, we are very pleased with the market conditions. We are very pleased with us being able to increase our guidance for the full year of 2021. Nevertheless, from a dividend policy perspective, we are not changing. As of today, our dividend policy, which is still, I want to reemphasize that we intend to pay between 30% to 50% Q1 profit in 2022, and that should come in early months of next year.

關於你的第二個問題，當談到改進的指導時，我們對市場狀況非常滿意。我們對能夠提高 2021 年全年指引感到非常高興。截至今天，我們的股息政策仍然如此，我想再次強調，我們打算在 2022 年第一季支付 30% 至 50% 的利潤，這應該在明年早些時候實現。

Got it. Okay. And then you mentioned the improved pricing on your contracts. I think you said around 50% improvement. Can you provide an update on how much of your business is on those 1-year-or-so contracts following the contracting period in April and May? Trying to get a sense for percentage of volumes, maybe duration, if they are all for 12 months or maybe some longer. And then ideally, an average contracted TEU rate for the coming year? Clearly, the backlog has improved based on your increased and relatively tight EBITDA guidance range.

知道了。好的。然後您提到了合約定價的改進。我想你說的是大約 50% 的改進。您能否提供最新情況，說明在 4 月和 5 月的合約之後，您的業務中有多少是在這些 1 年左右的合約上？試圖了解數量的百分比，也許是持續時間，如果它們都是 12 個月或更長時間。那麼理想情況下，來年的平均合約 TEU 運價是多少？顯然，根據您增加且相對嚴格的 EBITDA 指導範圍，積壓工作有所改善。

The -- yes, the percentage of long-term contract -- long-term contract very much applied, first, on the transpacific trades, not so much on the other trades. And transpacific trades account for 45% pretty much of our overall volume and contribution. So now with -- so when we are focusing on the transpacific, we continued this year just very much like last year. We like the idea to have 50% of our volume on the long-term contract and to still benefit from the spot for the remainder of the 50%. So that has not changed in terms of volume allocation year-over-year. So overall, if you apply 50% to 45% of our overall volume from a full company perspective, we are still within 20% to 25% of our volume that are subject to long-term contracts.

是的，長期合約的百分比首先非常適用於跨太平洋貿易，而不是其他貿易。跨太平洋貿易幾乎占我們總交易量和貢獻的 45%。因此，現在，當我們專注於跨太平洋地區時，我們今年的進展與去年非常相似。我們喜歡這樣的想法：將 50% 的銷量用於長期合同，並仍從剩餘 50% 的現貨中受益。因此，數量分配方面同比沒有變化。因此，總的來說，如果從整個公司的角度來看，我們的總銷量的 50% 到 45% 仍然是受長期合約約束的，我們的銷量仍然在 20% 到 25% 之內。

When it comes to the rates, indeed, we have -- and we are very pleased with the outcome of the negotiation we've had with our customers. We did mention the significant increase versus last year. If you allow me, I'm not going to say more about this. Providing an information in terms of incremental amount is something that we're happy to do, not so much to provide the detailed indication as to how much is the average revenue per TEU on our contract volume.

當談到費率時，我們確實已經——而且我們對與客戶的談判結果感到非常滿意。我們確實提到了與去年相比的顯著增長。如果您允許的話，我不會對此多說。我們很樂意提供增量信息，而不是詳細說明我們合約量中每 TEU 的平均收入是多少。

Okay. And then on the -- when you use the term long term, are those entirely 12 months? Or do you have some 18, 24 months?

好的。然後，當您使用“長期”一詞時，這些是不是整整 12 個月？或是你還有18、24個月的時間嗎？

It is mainly 12 months. It is true that we had customers that we're willing to discuss potentially -- agree with us longer-term commitment at the expense of a reduced rate. It is always the same strategy, a longer commitment for cheaper in a way. We were not so keen on pushing those discussions forward, and quite pleased to limit the commitment to 12 months as we are still optimistic for the years to come.

主要是12個月。確實，我們有願意潛在討論的客戶——以降低費率為代價同意我們的長期承諾。它始終是相同的策略，在某種程度上以更便宜的價格提供更長的承諾。我們並不那麼熱衷於推動這些討論，並且很高興將承諾限制在 12 個月，因為我們對未來幾年仍然持樂觀態度。

Perfect. And then I'll just sneak in one more here quickly. Slide 5, pretty incredible chart here showing your net cash leverage ratios coming down. Based on our cash flow projections, we could see being net debt 0, right, by some point in 2021. Is that a target? Do you have any kind of goal, leverage ratios or net cash, net debt amounts by year-end?

完美的。然後我會很快地再偷偷溜進去一個。投影片 5，這裡的圖表非常令人難以置信，顯示您的淨現金槓桿率正在下降。根據我們的現金流量預測，到 2021 年某個時候，我們可以看到淨債務為 0。到年底您有什麼目標、槓桿率或淨現金、淨債務金額嗎？

You're right. We are continuing the downward trend in this respect. Do we have an objective to be at net debt 0? The answer is no. The -- for us, we wanted to have -- to deleverage our balance sheet, and we more than achieved our initial expectations and targets. So there is no such thing as an objective to come down to 0 in terms of leverage. This is -- or in terms of net debt in this respect.

你說得對。我們在這方面持續呈下降趨勢。我們的目標是淨債務為零嗎？答案是否定的。對我們來說，我們希望去槓桿化我們的資產負債表，而且我們超越了我們最初的期望和目標。因此，槓桿率不存在降至 0 的目標。這是——或者就這方面的淨債務而言。

So we are happy where we are. This is more a consequence of the very favorable market conditions that lead to this outcome as opposed to a constant strategy to keep on pushing it down. Below 2x, to be honest with you, I think we are more than happy.

所以我們很高興我們現在的處境。這更多是導致這一結果的非常有利的市場條件的結果，而不是持續壓低這一結果的持續策略。老實說，低於 2 倍，我認為我們非常高興。

Sure. I'm glad to know you all are staying safe over there. I know I've been praying for Israel, peace in the region. So you all take care.

當然。我很高興知道你們都在那裡安全。我知道我一直在為以色列、該地區的和平祈禱。所以大家保重。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

The next question comes from the line of Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities.

下一個問題來自克拉克森證券公司的 Omar Nokta。

Yes, seconding Randy's thoughts, obviously, on the crisis there. But also wanted to wish you congratulations on another very, very strong quarter, and it sounds like we're going to be repeating the same message here in 3 months' time.

是的，顯然，附議蘭迪關於那裡危機的想法。但我也想祝賀您又一個非常非常強勁的季度，聽起來我們將在 3 個月後在這裡重複同樣的信息。

I wanted to ask about the guidance. And obviously, the $2.5 billion to $2.8 billion is a huge jump from where you were just a couple of months ago. And obviously, since then, we've seen a surge in freight rates. And I guess my question is, do you think that your EBITDA guidance for the year, just knowing what you know now, is still somewhat conservative considering you did $800 million of EBITDA already in the first quarter, which I guess indicates that you may potentially reach your guidance sometime within the third quarter? Any thoughts on that?

我想問一下指導意見。顯然，25 億美元到 28 億美元與幾個月前相比是一個巨大的躍升。顯然，從那時起，我們看到了運費的飆升。我想我的問題是，考慮到您在第一季度已經完成了8 億美元的EBITDA，您是否認為您今年的EBITDA 指導（僅了解您現在所知道的情況）仍然有些保守，我想這表明您可能會在第三季的某個時候達到您的指導？對此有什麼想法嗎？

First of all, I would very much hope so. This is a very good situation to be, to be in a position to raise the full year guidance. This comes on the back of a few favorable elements. First of all, we have and we enjoy a significant increase in volume. When we compare ourselves to the rest of our peers, when we compare ourselves quarter-over-quarter, we are carrying more than we expect to carry, more than 30% incremental volume on the back of all the new lines that we've opened and we continue to open. So that's, I think, one very strong driver behind the improved guidance.

首先，我非常希望如此。這是一個非常好的情況，能夠提高全年指引。這是在一些有利因素的支持下實現的。首先，我們已經並且享受到銷售量的顯著增加。當我們與其他同行進行比較時，當我們與季度進行比較時，我們的運量超出了我們的預期，在我們開設的所有新線路的支持下，我們的增量超過了 30%我們繼續開放。所以，我認為，這是改進指導背後的一個非常強大的驅動因素。

Obviously, the second one is the freight rates. And if you look and if we look at the SCFI, it is going up. When we initially thought that it would start to gradually decline, we are seeing the opposite trend, especially relevant on the trade lanes where we do operate. So this is another very strong driver that explains why we significantly upgraded our guidance.

顯然，第二個就是運費。如果你看一下，如果我們看一下 SCFI，它正在上升。當我們最初認為它會開始逐漸下降時，我們看到了相反的趨勢，特別是在我們經營的貿易航線上。因此，這是另一個非常強大的驅動因素，解釋了為什麼我們大幅升級了我們的指導。

And then lastly, there is -- and we just talked about it, the finalization of the long-term contracts. So we know that for Q3, Q4, we will benefit, even if we were to anticipate -- or to be conservative and look at the spot market going a little bit -- or softening a little bit, the long-term contract is going up and will be on the up quarter-over-quarter in Q3 and in Q4.

最後，我們剛剛談到了長期合約的敲定。因此，我們知道，對於第三季度、第四季度，我們將從中受益，即使我們預計——或者保守地看待現貨市場稍微走軟——或者稍微走軟，長期合約也會發生變化。季度和第四季環比成長。

So we -- when we come to you, we truly think that the guidance that we are communicating now is well within reach of the company. So we are saying it loud and clear that we truly believe that we will deliver on this commitment and this guidance to you. Whether there is room for upside? We never know, and time will tell. In terms of forecasting horizon, we have clear visibility into Q2, obviously, a good visibility of Q3. Q4 is a little bit more blurry. But again, we see very strong and resilient market conditions.

因此，當我們向您尋求幫助時，我們確實認為我們現在正在傳達的指導意見是公司完全可以實現的。因此，我們大聲明確地說，我們堅信我們將向您兌現這一承諾和指導。是否還有上升空間？我們永遠不知道，時間會證明一切。就預測範圍而言，我們對第二季有清晰的了解，顯然對第三季的了解也很好。 Q4 有點模糊。但我們再次看到非常強勁且有彈性的市場狀況。

That's really good color. And I guess maybe just wanted to double check on some of the figures you were talking to Randy about when it came to the spot versus contract. Just so I have it right, about half of the transpacific business is on contract. And then outside of transpacific, it's primarily spot based. And so...

這顏色確實不錯啊我想也許只是想仔細檢查一下你和蘭迪談論的一些數據，當涉及到現場與合約時。我沒說錯，大約一半的跨太平洋業務是簽約的。在跨太平洋航線之外，它主要是基於現貨的。所以...

Yes.

是的。

Yes. And then -- so if we look at it from just ZIM overall, if the transpacific is about 40% of the overall business, then effectively 80% of your business over the next 12 months is still open to the prevailing spot market?

是的。那麼，如果我們僅從 ZIM 整體來看，如果跨太平洋航線約佔整體業務的 40%，那麼在未來 12 個月內，您實際上 80% 的業務仍然對現行現貨市場開放？

That's pretty correct. With the carryout on the Asia, which represents 20% of our volumes, you have another 20% to 30% of -- we don't say long-term contract, but it's not really spot. It's quarterly pricing.

這是非常正確的。亞洲的結轉量占我們產量的 20%，另外 20% 到 30% 的量——我們不是說長期合同，但它並不是真正的現貨。這是季度定價。

Got it. Okay. And then just, sorry, one final one for me. You mentioned the $588 million that you've invested or you're planning to invest for this year on new equipment, primarily containers? You also recently contracted those 10 dual-fuel newbuildings. What are your thoughts on -- do you feel comfortable with the existing fleet capacity? Do you see a need to go into the newbuilding market for more ships? Or are you happy with how things are at this point?

知道了。好的。然後，抱歉，這是我的最後一件事。您提到今年您已投資或計劃投資 5.88 億美元購買新設備（主要是貨櫃）？你們最近還簽訂了這 10 艘雙燃料新船合約。您的想法是什麼—您對現有的機隊容量感到滿意嗎？您是否認為有必要進入新造船市場購買更多船舶？或者您對目前的情況感到滿意嗎？

Well, from a container, from an equipment perspective, it was very important to us to continue to bring in new containers as we are growing quite significantly quarter-over-quarter. So we took the initiative to order equipment quite a while ago, and we started that into the third quarter of last year already, and we are continuing aggressively to bring in additional equipment.

嗯，從貨櫃、從設備的角度來看，繼續引進新貨櫃對我們來說非常重要，因為我們的季度環比增長相當顯著。因此，我們很早以前就主動訂購了設備，去年第三季我們就開始訂購設備，並且我們正在繼續積極引進更多設備。

When it comes to vessels, we are happy to continue to charter in capacity as opposed to go and buy the order vessels and ships. We did -- as -- we did secure the long-term charter for the large-capacity vessels that we expect to take delivery from -- in 2023 to replace the 10,000 TEU vessels that we are currently deploying under our Asia U.S. East Coast. So we are very pleased to have concluded that chartering agreement with Seaspan in February.

就船舶而言，我們很高興繼續租用船舶，而不是去購買訂單船舶。我們確實獲得了大容量船舶的長期租約，預計將於 2023 年交付，以取代我們目前在亞洲美國東海岸部署的 10,000 TEU 船舶。因此，我們很高興在二月與 Seaspan 達成了租船協議。

And then now we will continue to bring in vessels as we need in order to cater for the new lines that we are opening and/or to renew existing charter that come to a renewal date. But we are not challenging our strategy, which is to continue to rely on the charter market and then what may change and what is changing is the allocation of short-term charter versus longer-term charter due to the current market conditions, obviously.

現在，我們將繼續根據需要引入船舶，以滿足我們正在開設的新航線和/或更新即將到期的現有租船合約。但我們並沒有挑戰我們的策略，即繼續依賴包機市場，然後可能會發生變化，正在改變的是由於當前的市場狀況，短期包機與長期包機的分配。

The next question comes from the line of Alexia Dogani with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Alexia Dogani 與巴克萊銀行的對話。

Well done on navigating so successfully such a volatile environment. I just have 3 questions please. Just firstly, just building on a bit of the previous questions. In terms of kind of size of the business now, I mean, clearly, you've talked about 112 vessels. And do you think we will end the year at a higher number? And then what do you feel is the right number to kind of run the business with the current contracted volumes and the way the market is growing?

在如此不穩定的環境中成功地導航，做得很好。我只有 3 個問題。首先，只是以之前的一些問題為基礎。就目前業務規模而言，我的意思是，很明顯，您談到了 112 艘船。您認為我們年底的數字會更高嗎？那麼，您認為在目前合約數量和市場成長方式下經營業務的正確數字是多少？

Then secondly, just to kind of tie up on the CapEx for the full year. Am I correct in thinking that CapEx now will be $488 million for the full year instead of $300 million previously?

其次，只是為了增加全年的資本支出。我認為全年資本支出現在為 4.88 億美元（而不是之前的 3 億美元）是否正確？

And then just thirdly, when you think about following kind of this period of extreme volatility because of disruption and increased demand, what do you feel is the normalized earnings power of ZIM postpandemic? I mean do you feel you can sustain this level of margins going forward because you've built your market share? Just a bit of color to that, that would be great.

第三，當您考慮由於中斷和需求增加而經歷這段極端波動時期時，您認為以星大流行後的正常化盈利能力是什麼？我的意思是，您是否認為由於您已經建立了市場份額，因此您可以維持這種水平的利潤率？只要再加一點顏色就太好了。

And then just finally, on the order book. Obviously, it's still quite low, but it's been moving quite a bit recently. At what point do you start worrying about supply-demand balance further out?

最後，在訂單簿上。顯然，它仍然很低，但最近已經移動了很多。什麼時候開始擔心未來的供需平衡？

Thank you, Alexia. I will try to take one after the other. So starting with your first question with respect to the number of vessels, we don't have a number of vessels in mind that we think is appropriate for us. Quite the contrary, we see vessels as a means to an end. We look at the trade lanes where we think we can provide a competitive proposition and grow profitably. That's the driver. And we've been engaging very heavily and since already 3 quarters now on the e-commerce trade, starting between Asia to the U.S., doubling and tripling the trade lanes and also complementing a similar type of trade lanes between Asia to Australia. And we've been quite successful at it. And hence, we grew our fleet and continue to grow our fleet.

謝謝你，亞歷克西婭。我會嘗試一個接一個地進行。因此，從你關於船隻數量的第一個問題開始，我們沒有考慮到適合我們的船隻數量。恰恰相反，我們將船隻視為達到目的的手段。我們著眼於我們認為可以提供有競爭力的主張並實現獲利成長的貿易航線。那是司機。自三個季度以來，我們一直在大力參與電子商務貿易，從亞洲到美國之間，將貿易通道增加了一倍和三倍，並補充了亞洲到澳大利亞之間類似類型的貿易通道。我們在這方面非常成功。因此，我們擴大了我們的機隊並繼續擴大我們的機隊。

We are also expanding, as we mentioned, with our partners with the 2M on our historical trades, Asia to the U.S. to name one. So that -- the driver for us is not the number of vessels. It's really for as long as we can go and stay in trades that are profitable. We will go in those trades, and we will stay in those trades. If not, we will potentially exit. So I guess, I hope that answers your first question. We are at 112 vessels today. We might as well finish the year at 130 or at 100. This is -- this will be driven by our analysis of profitability of each of the trades where we do operate.

正如我們所提到的，我們也正在與 2M 合作夥伴擴大我們的歷史貿易，例如從亞洲到美國。因此，對我們來說，驅動力不是船隻的數量。只要我們能夠繼續進行有利可圖的交易，這確實是有效的。我們將參與這些交易，並且我們將留在這些交易中。如果沒有，我們可能會退出。所以我想，我希望這能回答你的第一個問題。今天我們有 112 艘船。我們不妨以 130 或 100 結束這一年。

Second, with -- question with regards to CapEx, you're right. We are increasing our full year cash CapEx in a way by using the excess cash that we are generating today in paying and in investing in new containers as opposed to contracting leases with [box] providers. So you should consider cash CapEx of roughly $500 million or $550 million even for the full year of 2021, largely allocated to containers.

其次，關於資本支出的問題，你是對的。我們正在透過使用今天產生的多餘現金來支付和投資新貨櫃而不是與[貨櫃]提供者簽訂租賃合約來增加全年現金資本支出。因此，即使在 2021 年全年，您也應該考慮約 5 億美元或 5.5 億美元的現金資本支出，其中大部分分配給容器。

Then your third question with respect to the volatility in our markets and what could be a normalized earnings? What do we think can be the -- or the earnings power of ZIM? I think what is very important to us, we don't know what the new normal will be. We don't know whether it's going to be drastically different from what it was before. We have views and expectations.

那麼你的第三個問題是關於我們市場的波動性以及什麼是正常化收益？我們認為 ZIM 的獲利能力是什麼？我認為對我們來說非常重要的是，我們不知道新常態會是什麼。我們不知道它是否會與以前有很大不同。我們有看法，也有期望。

One, we think that the market has gained maturity, that is clear to us in terms of capacity management, and that will also resonate for your fourth question. So the market is more disciplined in this respect. So we, as an industry, have demonstrated that we could navigate certain changes in demand and in market conditions. That's one.

第一，我們認為市場已經成熟，這在產能管理方面對我們來說是清楚的，這也會對你的第四個問題產生共鳴。所以市場在這方面更有紀律。因此，作為一個行業，我們已經證明我們可以應對需求和市場條件的某些變化。這是一個。

Second, when it comes to the supply-demand dynamics for the few years to come, the expectations and the industry experts' expectations are quite favorable for the liner operator like us. So globally, we think that, that will eventually happen. We do agree that today's circumstances are exceptional. On the back of already a very good 2020, we think that 2021 will obviously be extremely good. We think that 2022, the stars continue to be well aligned. What will be the new normal for the industry remains to be seen.

其次，就未來幾年的供需動態而言，預期和行業專家的預期對我們這樣的班輪運營商來說是相當有利的。因此，在全球範圍內，我們認為這最終會發生。我們確實同意今天的情況非常特殊。在 2020 年已經非常好的基礎上，我們認為 2021 年顯然會非常好。我們認為，到 2022 年，星星將繼續排列整齊。該行業的新常態將是什麼，還有待觀察。

What is important for us is that in terms of positioning ZIM vis-a-vis our peers, our larger competitors, we continue to deliver superior EBIT margin. And we do that quarter after quarter, we think that the transformation, the new positioning of ZIM within our landscape is delivering results. The agility that we demonstrate is paying off.

對我們來說重要的是，就 ZIM 相對於我們的同行、我們更大的競爭對手的定位而言，我們將繼續提供卓越的息稅前利潤率。我們每季都這樣做，我們認為以星在我們領域的轉型和新定位正在帶來成果。我們所展現的敏捷性正在得到回報。

And then lastly, your question with regards to the order book, yes, it's on the up, but it's only up from a very low number when we were talking and looking at what the situation was in October last year, not so long ago, it was 8%. It was too low. Let's be clear, it was too low to guarantee the replacement CapEx. It was too low as well to capture for the increased demand that is expected for the years to come. So now we are at 17%. If I was to commit and say, well, where do we think is the threshold above which potentially there will be a risk of overcapacity? I think below 20% we are safe, again, to cater for replacement capacity and the capture for the expected growth in our market. So 20% I think is a reasonable number.

最後，你關於訂單簿的問題，是的，它正在上升，但只是從一個非常低的數字開始上升，當我們談論並查看去年十月的情況時，不久前，是8%。太低了。讓我們明確一點，它太低了，無法保證更換資本支出。它也太低，無法滿足預計未來幾年需求增加的需求。所以現在我們是 17%。如果我要承諾說，那麼，我們認為閾值在哪裡，超過該閾值可能會出現產能過剩風險？我認為低於 20%，我們可以安全地滿足替代能力並捕捉市場的預期成長。所以我認為20%是一個合理的數字。

And actually, if you don't mind, I'll ask a follow-up on just the future technologies. I mean there's a little bit of a debate at the moment whether LNG is the right fuel -- transition fuel to kind of get the industry decarbonized. I mean clearly, yourselves have voted with your feet towards kind of LNG. I guess what is your view? I mean do you feel that it's good enough and therefore, that's where you've decided to -- well, to target your future requirements? Just any color on what kind of the industry is discussing at the moment would be helpful.

實際上，如果您不介意的話，我會詢問有關未來技術的後續問題。我的意思是，目前對於液化天然氣是否是合適的燃料存在一些爭論——過渡燃料以實現產業脫碳。我的意思很明確，你們自己已經用腳投票支持某種液化天然氣。我猜你的看法是什麼？我的意思是，您是否覺得它足夠好，因此您決定——好吧，瞄準您未來的需求？只要對目前正在討論的行業類型進行任何顏色分析都會有所幫助。

Sure. No, we don't think that LNG is going to be the long-lasting technology that will allow for the industry to fully decarbonate. LNG solves and addresses a few emission issues, but doesn't address CO2 emission. It is more CO2 friendly, if I can put it that way, than the (inaudible). But it is not the long-term solution. But it is the best solution that is available today in terms of scalability, in terms of access.

當然。不，我們認為液化天然氣不會成為使該行業完全脫碳的持久技術。液化天然氣解決了一些排放問題，但沒有解決二氧化碳排放問題。如果我可以這麼說的話，它比（聽不清楚）對二氧化碳更友善。但這不是長期解決方案。但就可擴展性和可訪問性而言，它是當今可用的最佳解決方案。

When we have to make the decision to enter into this long-term agreement with Seaspan, for us, it was a no-brainer. But we didn't want to buy because we don't think that it is going to be -- the LNG technology might eventually or will most likely be replaced with an alternative technology, be it ammonia, be it hydrogen, that will solve the CO2 emission question. So we don't want to buy, and we don't want to take any residual value risk on the vessel.

當我們必須做出與 Seaspan 簽訂長期協議的決定時，對我們來說，這是理所當然的。但我們不想購買，因為我們認為它不會——液化天然氣技術最終可能或很可能會被替代技術取代，無論是氨還是氫，這將解決二氧化碳排放問題。所以我們不想購買，也不想承擔船舶的任何殘值風險。

Nevertheless, we're willing to commit to a long-term charter and to use the best available technology of today, which is clearly LNG. There is no better viable technology today than this. So that's our stance. We are not a vessel owner, and we are happy to remain like this predominantly. And again, when we just negotiated with Seaspan, we wanted Seaspan to make the most environmentally friendly choice when it came to serving ZIM. And in turn, allowing us to serve our customers in the most efficient manner from a carbon-intensity perspective.

儘管如此，我們願意承諾長期租約並使用當今最好的可用技術，這顯然是液化天然氣。當今沒有比這更好的可行技術了。這就是我們的立場。我們不是船東，我們很高興繼續保持這種狀態。再說一遍，當我們剛剛與 Seaspan 談判時，我們希望 Seaspan 在為以星星提供服務時做出最環保的選擇。反過來，使我們能夠從碳強度的角度以最有效的方式為客戶提供服務。

This concludes our Q&A for today. I hand back to Eli Glickman, CEO, for closing comments.

我們今天的問答到此結束。我請執行長 Eli Glickman 徵求總結意見。

Thank you, operator. I would like to thank everyone again for joining us today's call and for your interest in ZIM. We look forward to sharing an update on our progress with you in the future. Thank you very much. Goodbye.

謝謝你，接線生。我要再次感謝大家參加我們今天的電話會議以及對以星的興趣。我們期待將來與您分享我們的最新進展。非常感謝。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。