XP Inc (XP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer, XP Inc. It's a pleasure to be here with you today.

    大家晚上好。我是 XP Inc. 投資者關係長 Andre Parize。

  • On behalf of the company, I would like to thank you all for the interest and welcome you to our 2024 earnings call. This year was a record setting of results, and today, it will be presented by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Victor Mansur, who will both be available for the Q&A session right after the presentation.

    我謹代表公司感謝大家的關注,並歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年財報電話會議。今年的業績創下了紀錄,今天,我們的執行長 Thiago Maffra 和財務長 Victor Mansur 將進行演講,他們都將在演講結束後參加問答環節。

  • If you want to ask a question, you can raise your hand on the Zoom too, and we will attend you on a first come first serve basis. We also have the option of simultaneous translation to Portuguese. There is a button below if you want to turn it on translation.

    如果您想提問,您也可以在 Zoom 上舉手,我們將按照先到先得的原則為您解答。我們也可以選擇同聲傳譯為葡萄牙語。如果您想打開翻譯,下面有一個按鈕。

  • And before we begin our presentation, please refer to our legal disclaimers on page 2, on which we clarify forward-looking statements and additional information on forward-looking statements can also be found on the SEC filings section of the IR website.

    在我們開始簡報之前,請參閱第 2 頁的法律免責聲明,我們在其中澄清了前瞻性陳述,有關前瞻性陳述的其他資訊也可在 IR 網站的 SEC 文件部分找到。

  • So now I'll turn it over to Thiago Maffra, Good evening, Maffra.

    現在我將時間交給蒂亞戈·馬弗拉 (Thiago Maffra),晚上好,馬弗拉。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Andre. Good evening to all. I appreciate everyone joining us for our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. It's a pleasure to be here tonight. Let's explore and discuss our quarterly results as well as our strategy in place to accomplish our goals.

    謝謝你,安德烈。大家晚上好。感謝大家參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我很高興今晚能來到這裡。讓我們探討和討論我們的季度業績以及實現目標的策略。

  • 2024 was a positive year for us. Our results were aligned with our plan, bringing confidence that our ecosystem is complete and able to navigate through different weathers. This year, we also dedicated to increase our ability to deliver higher quality service to our clients, better segmentation, innovative products, sales team extension, and all of it with strict cost control. Our business is supported by our more intelligent and sophisticated tech platform, creating opportunities to grow the secondary trading, and as a result, we delivered higher profitability to our shareholders.

    2024 年對我們來說是積極的一年。我們的結果與計劃一致,我們相信我們的生態系統是完整的,並且能夠應對不同的天氣。今年,我們也致力於提高為客戶提供更高品質服務的能力、更好的市場區隔、創新產品、擴大銷售團隊,同時嚴格控製成本。我們的業務得到更聰明、更先進的技術平台的支持,創造了成長二級交易的機會,從而為股東帶來了更高的獲利能力。

  • As part of our culture, we celebrate our people commitment, highlighting partners with more than 10 years working at XP. And last month, I completed 10 years in XP like many other partners. So it was special to see all the transformation we had during the last decade, and imagine how many new growth opportunities we still have for the next one.

    作為我們文化的一部分,我們讚揚對員工的承諾,並特別強調在 XP 工作超過 10 年的合作夥伴。上個月,我和許多其他合作夥伴一樣,在 XP 中度過了 10 年。因此,看到我們在過去十年中經歷的所有轉變並想像未來十年我們還有多少新的成長機會,這是一件很特別的事情。

  • Now, I will share with you the main highlights we accomplished during the year; starting with client assets that we achieved BRL1.22 trillion, posting a 9% growth year over year. We also reached 18,200 advisers, representing 5% growth year over year. And client base achieved 4.7 million with 3% growth year over year.

    現在,我向大家分享我們在過去一年中所取得的主要成就;從客戶資產開始,我們實現了1.22兆雷亞爾,年增9%。我們的顧問人數也達到了 18,200 名,年增 5%。客戶群達470萬,較去年成長3%。

  • In 2024, gross revenues posted BRL18 billion, with a solid 15% growth year over year. We also delivered sound EBT growth of year over year, reaching BRL5 billion. I'm happy to announce that we achieved the highest quarterly adjusted net income since our IPO, posting BRL1.2 billion in fourth quarter '24 and a total of BRL4.5 billion for the full year, which represented 17% expansion year over year.

    2024 年,總營收達到 180 億雷亞爾,年增 15%。我們的息稅前利潤也比去年同期實現了良好成長,達到 50 億巴西雷亞爾。我很高興地宣布,我們實現了自 IPO 以來最高的季度調整後淨收入,24 年第四季實現 12 億雷亞爾,全年總計 45 億雷亞爾,年成長 17%。

  • On the balance sheet and profitability, we achieved 28.7% ROTE in 2024, with 376 bps expansion versus 2023, and our ROE market 23% -- 163 bps expansion. This ratio year-end was 17.7%, a comfortable level when considering the payment of BRL2 billion in dividends. Our secured loan book growth and effects of higher interest rate curve in the end of the year. We will bring more details on this topic during the presentation.

    在資產負債表和獲利能力方面,我們在 2024 年實現了 28.7% 的 ROTE,較 2023 年成長 376 個基點,我們的 ROE 市場成長 23%——163 個基點。年底這一比率為 17.7%,考慮到支付 20 億巴西雷亞爾的股息,這是一個舒適的水平。我們的擔保貸款帳簿成長和年底更高利率曲線的影響。我們將在演示過程中提供有關該主題的更多詳細資訊。

  • Regarding the adjusted diluted EPS, we posted 16% growth during the year. And looking ahead, EPS should grow faster than net income when we take into consideration the share buyback program we opened last year. Our set of results confirm that we are in the right direction to deliver our 2026 guidance. We will see more details on the next slides.

    就調整後的稀釋每股收益而言,我們今年實現了 16% 的成長。展望未來,如果考慮到我們去年啟動的股票回購計劃,每股盈餘的成長速度應該會比淨收入更快。我們的成果證實,我們正朝著實現 2026 年目標的正確方向前進。我們將在下一張投影片中看到更多細節。

  • Let's see how our business evolved since we presented our guidance in December 2023. We will go deeper in each pillar on the next slides.

    讓我們看看自 2023 年 12 月提出指導以來我們的業務如何發展。在下一張投影片中,我們將更深入地探討每個支柱。

  • Since our total revenues reached BRL18 billion during the year, representing 15% growth, to reach the top of the guidance is necessary to post 22% CAGR. And to reach the bottom is necessary to post 12% CAGR. When we take EBT margin in consideration, we posted 256 bps (sic - see slide 6, "283 bps") expansion, reaching 29% in the year. It corroborates that our plan is on track to achieve our target range of 30% to 34% in 2026.

    由於我們今年的總收入達到了 180 億雷亞爾,成長了 15%,因此要達到最高指導目標就需要實現 22% 的複合年增長率。要觸底,需要達到 12% 的複合年增長率。當我們考慮 EBT 利潤率時,我們的擴張幅度為 256 個基點(原文如此 - 參見投影片 6,「283 個基點」),全年達到 29%。這證實我們的計劃預計將實現 2026 年 30% 至 34% 的目標範圍。

  • Now, on the right hand of the slide, there is a comparison from final year, 2024, with [third] quarter '23, which was the reference that we set our targets for 2026. Analyzing the three pillars that comprehend total gross revenues, we see that core investments and new verticals are within the growth range and corporate and SMB is above. As a conclusion, gross revenues present CAGR of 17%.

    現在,投影片的右邊是最後一年(2024 年)與 23 年(第三)季度的比較,這是我們設定 2026 年目標的參考。分析構成總收入的三大支柱,我們發現核心投資和新垂直產業處於成長範圍內,而企業和中小企業則處於成長範圍之上。總之,總收入的複合年增長率為 17%。

  • The same idea is related to EBT margin with a sound expansion during the period of 283 bps at 29%, what reinforce our confidence to achieve our goals.

    同樣的想法也適用於息稅前利潤率,期內息稅前利潤率穩健擴張 283 個基點,達到 29%,這增強了我們實現目標的信心。

  • Moving to the next slide. Now, in Retail Investments. During 2024, the number one question to XP was net new money. And we have been addressing the question, demonstrating our capacity in delivering around BRL20 billion per quarter in Retail. This quarter, we posted the BRL20 billion in Retail, with 67% growth year over year despite the challenging macro environment.

    移至下一張投影片。現在,談論零售投資。2024 年期間,XP 面臨的首要問題是淨新增資金。我們一直在解決這個問題,展示我們在零售業每季實現約 200 億巴西雷亞爾收入的能力。本季度,我們的零售額達到 200 億雷亞爾,儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰,但仍比去年同期成長了 67%。

  • Comparing total net new money when corporate is included, we posted BRL26 billion, representing 37% growth year over year. And when we compare the full year, we presented BRL103 billion in net new money, with a 45% growth.

    如果將企業納入,則總淨新增資金為 260 億雷亞爾,年增 37%。與全年相比,我們的淨新增資金為 1,030 億雷亞爾,成長率為 45%。

  • Considering only Retail, excluding Modal's acquisition, it was a 33% growth year over year with BRL81 billion. Our target remains the same for 2025, net new money around BRL20 billion per quarter in Retail. We understand that our true differentials set us apart from peers and will contribute to our continuous growth for the next years.

    僅考慮零售業,不包括 Modal 的收購,其銷售額年增 33%,達到 810 億雷亞爾。我們到 2025 年的目標保持不變,即零售業每季淨新增資金約為 200 億巴西雷亞爾。我們明白,我們真正的優勢使我們有別於同行,並將有助於我們未來幾年的持續成長。

  • Moving to the next slide, we will go deeper in our main levers starting with our complete product platform offering sophisticated instruments to our clients according to their objectives. I'm happy to share our current fixed income capacity.

    進入下一張投影片,我們將深入探討我們的主要槓桿,從完整的產品平台開始,根據客戶的目標為他們提供先進的工具。我很高興分享我們目前的固定收益能力。

  • XP is a fixed income powerhouse in Brazil, being the largest market maker for all fixed income instruments. It became a relevant growth engine in our ecosystem. It was built not so long ago.

    XP 是巴西的固定收益巨頭,也是所有固定收益工具的最大做市商。它已成為我們生態系統中重要的成長引擎。它建造的時間並不長。

  • Actually, we doubled AUC size in the last three years. It is a big question if fixed income will perform as last year. But as you can see in the slide, traded volume to client assets ratio is steady during the years. AUC kept growing at a fast pace. And as a result, fixed income, daily average traded volume, sky rocket reaching 40,000 trades in 2024.

    實際上,我們在過去三年中將 AUC 規模擴大了一倍。固定收益的表現是否會與去年一樣是一個大問題。但正如您在幻燈片中看到的,交易量與客戶資產的比率多年來一直保持穩定。AUC持續快速成長。因此,固定收益日均交易量將在 2024 年飆升至 40,000 筆交易。

  • To achieve these sorts of level we have to consider the powerful combination of the largest well-trained sales team in the country, diversified and innovative product offering and risk management accuracy.

    為了達到這樣的水平,我們必須考慮國內最大的訓練有素的銷售團隊、多樣化和創新的產品供應以及風險管理準確性的強大組合。

  • Moving to the next slide, we see our new distribution channel model. Since 2021, we built a multichannel distribution channel in two main categories. The first one, B2B which comprehends IFAs, Wealth Managers and RIAs. And the second one, B2C, that contemplates Internal Advisers, Self-direct Model, and Private Bank. Those categories have demonstrated to be complementary, addressing client needs and support our commercial trust posting continuously AUC growth.

    在下一張投影片中,我們看到了新的通路模式。自2021年起,我們建構了兩大品類的多通路通路。第一個是B2B,包括IFA、財富經理和RIA。第二個領域是B2C,考慮內部顧問、自我指導模式和私人銀行。這些類別已被證明是互補的,可以滿足客戶需求並支持我們的商業信託持續實現 AUC 成長。

  • Important to highlight that the new distribution channels we launched during the last years already represents 60% of total net new money.

    值得強調的是,我們過去幾年推出的新通路已經占到總淨新資金的 60%。

  • As you can see on the right hand of the slide, our proprietary tools provide more intelligence to support advisers with daily chips. We do this by providing data so advisers can manage clients' portfolios according to their objectives and simulate new strategies and performance. On the back of these new technologies and servicing model, we have our IFA channel ready to accelerate even more in 2025, becoming adhering to this new concept to manage clients' portfolios, improving loyalty and satisfaction.

    正如您在幻燈片右側看到的,我們的專有工具為支援顧問的日常籌碼提供了更多智慧。我們透過提供數據來實現這一點,以便顧問可以根據客戶的目標管理客戶的投資組合並模擬新的策略和績效。在這些新技術和服務模式的支持下,我們的 IFA 管道已準備好在 2025 年進一步加速,並堅持這一新理念來管理客戶的投資組合,提高忠誠度和滿意度。

  • The adherence to these tools and practices, it's very important. And one of the many examples that makes this clear is when we see that advisers who became adherent to our new commercial behavior, increase their daily activities by 11x. This shows a powerful combination of tools and a new mindset in relationship with our clients.

    堅持這些工具和實踐非常重要。眾多例子可以清楚地證明這一點,其中一個例子就是,我們發現那些遵循我們新的商業行為的顧問的日常活動增加了 11 倍。這體現了我們與客戶之間強大的工具組合和全新思維方式。

  • On the next slide, we develop a segmentation with accurate value proposition. As we can see in the slide, we have from digital to private, other part of our better understanding of this new segmentation is based in five different dimensions.

    在下一張投影片中,我們將制定具有準確價值主張的細分。正如我們在幻燈片中看到的,我們從數位到私人,我們對這種新細分的更好理解的其他部分是基於五個不同的維度。

  • Number one, focusing what clients are looking for in the relationship with XP, from transaction banking for digital clients to integrated solutions for private clients. Number two, advisory model with three different approaches, objective based, financial planning and wealth planning. Number three, investment options with proper pricing sophistication and access depending on the client segment. Number four, banking experience also with differentiated pricing and products such as different credit cards, matching our clients' expectations. And last, client support with increasingly higher personalization and benefits, for example, faster SLAs and participation in events and experiences.

    第一,專注於客戶在與 XP 的關係中所尋求的東西,從針對數位客戶的交易銀行業務到針對私人客戶的全面解決方案。第二,諮詢模式有三種不同的方法:基於目標、財務規劃和財富規劃。第三,根據客戶群提供具有適當定價和存取權限的投資選擇。第四,銀行體驗還包括差異化的定價和產品,例如不同的信用卡,以滿足客戶的期望。最後,客戶支援的個人化和福利越來越高,例如更快的 SLA 和參與活動和體驗。

  • Additionally, we are also preparing new initiatives to launch during the year with this rationale. One of them, it's a new credit card experience that we expect to result in higher cross-sell and share of wallet. We already saw that the new segmentation started to translate into better results. One from many examples is our Private Bank, which is performing much better in terms of inflows and client satisfaction than in the previous years. We are excited with the last month's performance and expecting a solid 2025.

    此外,我們也基於此理念準備在今年推出新的措施。其中之一就是新的信用卡體驗,我們預計這將帶來更高的交叉銷售和錢包份額。我們已經看到新的細分開始帶來更好的結果。我們的私人銀行就是眾多例子中的一個,其流入量和客戶滿意度方面的表現比前幾年好得多。我們對上個月的表現感到非常興奮,並期待 2025 年能取得穩健的表現。

  • Now moving to the next slide, we have financial planning. As we saw before, financial planning is an important pillar in our strategy. We are the only institution serving clients with a complete financing program to clients with BRL300,000 and up, not only client-based satisfaction increases but also their loyalty.

    現在轉到下一張投影片,我們有財務規劃。正如我們之前所看到的,財務規劃是我們策略的重要支柱。我們是唯一一家為 30 萬巴西雷亞爾及以上的客戶提供完整融資計畫的機構,不僅提高了客戶滿意度,還提高了他們的忠誠度。

  • As for results, we can see on the right hand of the slide that clients with financial planning program increased 2x insurance conversion, increased retirement plans conversion from 30% to 41%, and last but not least, increase our client net new money by 43%. And and we are just in the beginning, more to be done in the next years.

    至於結果,我們可以在投影片的右側看到,擁有財務規劃計畫的客戶的保險轉換率增加了 2 倍,退休計畫轉換率從 30% 增加到 41%,最後但並非最不重要的是,我們的客戶淨新資金增加了 43%。而我們才剛開始,未來幾年還有很多工作要做。

  • Moving on to the next slide, we will see more details in retail initiatives. Now let's move to our cross-sell initiatives. You can see that credit card grew 11% year over year, marking BRL13.1 billion in TPV during fourth quarter 2014. When compare the full year, credit card grew 17%. When we look to our total penetration, we still see a good opportunity to increase our credit card client base, since we have only 29% penetration out of the eligible clients and the larger banks are running around 50%. We are excited about our new launches during the year, and we expect credit card revenue to grow around 20%.

    接下來是下一張投影片,我們將看到零售計劃的更多細節。現在讓我們討論交叉銷售計劃。您可以看到,信用卡年增 11%,2014 年第四季的 TPV 達到 131 億巴西雷亞爾。與全年相比,信用卡成長了17%。當我們看我們的整體滲透率時,我們仍然看到了增加信用卡客戶群的好機會,因為我們在合格客戶中的滲透率只有 29%,而大型銀行的滲透率約為 50%。我們對今年推出的新產品感到非常興奮,預計信用卡收入將成長 20% 左右。

  • Life insurance written premium, presented 37% growth year over year in the fourth quarter and 44% growth for the full year of 2024. This is other growth avenue for the next years since our penetration is about 2%, and other players present close to 17% penetration in this product. When we compare life insurance revenues, it grew 27% in the year, which means that we are starting to reap the benefits from our own insurance company.

    人壽保險承保保費在第四季年增 37%,2024 年全年成長 44%。這是未來幾年的另一個成長途徑,因為我們的滲透率約為2%,而其他參與者在該產品上的滲透率接近17%。當我們比較人壽保險收入時,它在今年增加了 27%,這意味著我們開始從自己的保險公司獲得收益。

  • This is because it takes three years on average to see the positive impact in this business. The first two years are more concentrated, commissions and provisions. And for 2025, we expect an even higher revenue growth pace than the one we saw in 2024, which was 41%.

    這是因為這項業務平均需要三年時間才能看到正面影響。前兩年比較集中,佣金和撥備。而對於 2025 年,我們預期營收成長率將比 2024 年的 41% 更高。

  • On Retirement Plans, our client assets keep growing double digit posting 10% year over year in fourth quarter and marked BRL81 billion. XP has 5% market share, and the market leader, 27%. As I said, in recent quarters, we are launching initiatives as cash back sales force expansion to keep gaining relevance in this offering during the next years. As we keep seeing more inflows, we believe we could grow retirement plans revenue by a double-digit rate in 2025.

    在退休計畫方面,我們的客戶資產持續保持兩位數成長,第四季年增 10%,達到 810 億雷亞爾。經驗值佔有5%的市場份額,市場領導者佔有27%的市場份額。正如我所說,最近幾個季度,我們正在推出現金返還銷售團隊擴張等舉措,以便在未來幾年繼續保持該產品的相關性。隨著資金流入不斷增加,我們相信到 2025 年退休計畫收入將實現兩位數的成長。

  • Retail Credit NII posted 79% growth year over year, marking BRL81 million in revenues this quarter. Since our lending in this concept is backed with client investments at collateral, our ECL to loans is lower than 1%, and which represents one of the lowest levels in the Brazilian industry. We expect this revenue to grow around mid-teens for the year.

    零售信貸 NII 年成長 79%,本季營收達 8,100 萬巴西雷亞爾。由於我們按照這個概念進行的貸款是以客戶投資作為抵押的,因此我們的貸款預期信用損失低於 1%,是巴西同行業中最低的水平之一。我們預計今年的營收將成長 15% 左右。

  • On the concept of other new products, compounded by FX, global investments, digital account and consortium. They presented 103% growth year over year with revenues marking BRL213 million this quarter. It demonstrates how many opportunities we still have to capture true cross-sell in our retail client base. Not long ago, it was close to zero. And looking ahead, this concept to cross the BRL1 billion mark per year.

    關於其他新產品的概念,包括外匯、全球投資、數位帳戶和財團。他們的營收年增了 103%,本季達到 2.13 億巴西雷亞爾。這表明我們在零售客戶群中仍有多少機會獲得真正的交叉銷售。不久前,這數字接近零。展望未來,這一概念每年的收入將突破 10 億巴西雷亞爾大關。

  • And moving to Corporate and SMB. As we have been talking about our complete ecosystem, wholesale is an important part of our growth engine. 2024 was a record-setting year for this segment.

    並轉向企業和中小型企業。正如我們一直在談論我們的完整生態系統,批發是我們成長引擎的重要組成部分。 2024 年是該領域創紀錄的一年。

  • Now let's see how it performed on different divisions. Starting with DCM, it was a strong year, posting 31% growth in volumes compared to fourth quarter '23, marking BRL9.3 billion, coupled with market share gains, achieving 13%. As a result, we were a top ranked in DCM, agribusiness credit notes and real estate funds. It is possible to gain even further market share, since XP is the largest investment platform in Brazil with dominance in secondary trading.

    現在讓我們看看它在不同部門的表現。從 DCM 開始,今年表現強勁,與 23 年第四季相比,銷量成長了 31%,達到 93 億雷亞爾,同時市佔率也成長了 13%。因此,我們在 DCM、農業綜合企業信用票據和房地產基金中名列前茅。由於 XP 是巴西最大的投資平台,在二級交易中佔據主導地位,因此有可能獲得進一步的市場份額。

  • In corporate credit, secular trading XP represents more than 50% of the local market. Regarding XP institutional broker dealer, it's some other highlights. Giving attribution, power, and quality in execution, we are gaining market share continuously during the last years. In the end of 2024, XP posted 16% market share, which is getting closer and closer to the market leader.

    在企業信貸方面,長期交易 XP 佔了當地市場的 50% 以上。關於 XP 機構經紀商,還有一些其他亮點。憑藉卓越的績效、實力和執行質量,我們在過去幾年中不斷獲得市場份額。2024年底,XP的市佔率為16%,距離市場領導者越來越近。

  • Other relevant growth avenue is corporate security. Few years ago, it was a completely different story. Now our capacity origin warehouse and distribute corporate credit is in a new level. XP is a relevant player and more important than only size is the benefit of our unique loop to recycle our expanded loan book to our retail and institutional clients. Our turnover on it is 2x or 3x per quarter.

    其他相關的成長途徑是企業安全。幾年前,情況完全不同。現在我們的原產地倉庫和分銷企業信貸的能力已經達到了一個新的水平。XP 是重要的參與者,比規模更重要的是我們獨特的循環優勢,可以將擴大的貸款帳簿回收給我們的零售和機構客戶。我們的營業額每季是2倍或3倍。

  • This quarter, our corporate securities book increased BRL9 billion, mainly high-graded names, marking BRL32 billion. It means that we distributed a large portion of the this book last quarter and we also originated a larger one. Our competitiveness is supported by relevance as the largest corporate credit broker in the country.

    本季度,我們的公司證券帳簿增加了 90 億雷亞爾,主要是高評級公司,達到 320 億雷亞爾。這意味著我們在上個季度分發了這本書的很大一部分,我們還創作了一本更大的書。作為國內最大的企業信貸經紀商,我們的競爭力得到了有力的支持。

  • On derivates, we keep our offering while increasing penetration in OTC derivatives. And this was a quarter quarter that we kept our 4th ranking position compared to 10th two years ago. As we presented last quarter, XP is the leader in interest rate swaps, a true differential of our ecosystem.

    在衍生性商品方面,我們持續提供新產品,同時提高場外衍生性商品的滲透率。與兩年前的第十名相比,本季我們的排名保持在第 4 位。正如我們上個季度所介紹的,XP 是利率互換領域的領導者,這是我們生態系統的真正差異。

  • On FX, XP also sustained 15th ranking position from for 41st, four years ago when we started. When we look to Issuer Service and corporate, total revenues posted 45% growth. And lending institutional concept is included, there three business grew 16% year over year. We are confident that our strengths, we will excel the challenging scenario, marking another solid growth in 2025.

    在 FX 上,XP 的排名也從四年前剛開始時的第 41 位維持到了第 15 位。當我們看發行人和企業時,總收入增加了 45%。若計入機構貸款概念,三項業務年增16%。我們相信,憑藉我們的優勢,我們將能夠克服挑戰,在 2025 年再次實現穩步成長。

  • Moving to the next slide, we will see XP growth potential. We acknowledge that our business evolved in a complete ecosystem. And more and more, we have received questions regarding our growth potential. Therefore, I would like to share with you our rationale that supports our plan for the year.

    翻到下一張投影片,我們將看到 XP 的成長潛力。我們承認我們的業務是在一個完整的生態系統中發展起來的。我們收到的有關我們成長潛力的疑問越來越多。因此,我想與大家分享我們今年計劃的理由。

  • It's important to bear in mind that XP business model benefits from a natural growth from total AUC. Today, as we speak, roughly, 65% of total assets are allocated in fixed income directly or through funds, which corroborates to expect growth close to accelerate for these client assets. Additionally, we incorporated net new money, then a combination of both translates to a potential double-digit growth in AUC, and consequently, should support revenues growth.

    重要的是要記住,XP 商業模式受益於總 AUC 的自然成長。今天,正如我們所說,大約 65% 的總資產直接或透過基金分配給固定收益,這證實了這些客戶資產的成長預計將加速。此外,我們還納入了淨新資金,兩者結合將帶來 AUC 的潛在兩位數成長,從而支持收入成長。

  • Regarding new verticals, as I presented earlier, we are confident that we are at the very beginning of the potential cross-sell penetration. During the year, we grew 32%, and we expect to keep growing at this fast pace in the next years.

    關於新的垂直領域,正如我之前提到的,我們相信我們正處於潛在交叉銷售滲透的開始階段。今年我們成長了32%,預計未來幾年仍將維持這種快速成長速度。

  • Another concept which supports our growth is related to float from our clients. By design, the performance will be at Selic Rate pace, pointing again to a double-digit growth.

    支持我們成長的另一個概念與來自客戶的浮動資金有關。依照設計,業績表現將以 Selic Rate 速度進行,再次實現兩位數的成長。

  • Next pillar is the Issuer Service focuses on DCM. It is true that in 2024, Brazilian industry had the all-time high DCM volumes, and it's too soon to refer that's not going to be also a solid year for DCM in 2025. Just in case if the total DCM volumes for 2025 materialized in lower levels than last year, our plan is due to expand our market share and benefit from a new level of Brazilian industry, which is way higher than years ago.

    下一個支柱是專注於 DCM 的發行人服務。確實,2024 年巴西工業的 DCM 產量達到了歷史最高水平,但現在說 2025 年 DCM 不會是穩健​​的一年還為時過早。如果 2025 年 DCM 總量低於去年,我們的計劃是擴大我們的市場份額,並從巴西工業的新水平中受益,該水平遠高於幾年前。

  • Our distribution power is the most important differential to participate in many issuance mandates. Coupled with that, is our lower cost of capital, which Victor will present more details ahead.

    我們的分銷能力是我們參與多項發行任務最重要的差異。除此之外,我們的資本成本也較低,Victor 將在接下來的內容中詳細介紹。

  • Finally, corporate revenues go hand in hand with Issuer Services, providing derivatives and credit to our clients. XP is becoming more relevant in wholesale business since our recycling results in higher distribution capacity to our retail and institutional channels.

    最後,公司收入與發行人服務並進,為我們的客戶提供衍生性商品和信貸。由於我們的回收提高了我們零售和機構通路的分銷能力,XP 在批發業務中變得越來越重要。

  • So even considering institutional revenues with lower pace as part of this concept, both should post double-digit growth. Just as a reminder, we already expected a softer primary offerings volume in DCM for the first quarter '25 due to the seasonality, but this should be offset by a higher activity in the corporate bond secondary market, while compounding all these factors that I just mentioned, the end game should be to revenues growing more than 10% during 2025.

    因此,即使將速度較慢的機構收入視為這一概念的一部分,兩者都應該實現兩位數的成長。提醒一下,由於季節性原因,我們已經預計 2025 年第一季 DCM 的一級發行量會比較疲軟,但這應該會被公司債二級市場的活躍度所抵消,同時結合我剛才提到的所有這些因素,最終的結果應該是 2025 年的收入成長率超過 10%。

  • Now I will hand it over to Victor, so he can discuss this quarter financials. Thank you.

    現在我將把它交給 Victor,以便他討論本季的財務狀況。謝謝。

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Maffra. Good evening, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you.

    謝謝,馬弗拉。大家晚上好。我很高興和你們在一起。

  • Let's start with gross revenue. Total gross revenue posted 15% growth in 2024 and 4% growth quarter over quarter. Retail Fixed Income and Corporate & Issuer Service were the highlights of the quarter. The strong performance in Retail Fixed Income reflects our growing ability to deliver fixed income products and enhance our market-making capacity. In parallel, Corporate & Issuer Services benefited from our warehousing strategy, which aims to meet client demand in the first quarter of 2025, while mitigating the expected weaker seasonality.

    讓我們從總收入開始。2024 年總營收將成長 15%,季增 4%。零售固定收益以及企業及發行人服務是本季的亮點。零售固定收益的強勁表現反映了我們提供固定收益產品的能力不斷增強以及我們做市能力的提高。同時,企業及發行人服務也受惠於我們的倉儲策略,該策略旨在滿足 2025 年第一季的客戶需求,同時緩解預期的季節性疲軟影響。

  • When we compare the gross revenue breakdown on the right-hand side of the slide, in 2024, retail maintained 75% of total revenues and Corporate & Issuer Services gains this against institutional revenues.

    當我們比較投影片右側的總收入明細時,到 2024 年,零售業佔總收入的 75%,而企業及發行人服務業則從機構收入中獲得了這一比例。

  • Let's move to the next slide with more details on the different segments. Retail revenue posted BRL11,791 million, a 14% growth in 2024 and Market BRL3,569 million in the fourth quarter '24, representing 2% growth quarter over quarter.

    讓我們進入下一張投影片,其中將詳細介紹不同的部分。2024 年零售收入為 117.91 億雷亞爾,成長 14%,2024 年第四季市場營收為 35.69 億雷亞爾,季增 2%。

  • As expected, fixed income was a highlight in the year and in the quarter, achieving BRL3.447 billion the full year if 49% growth and BRL985 million in the quarter, posting 5% growth quarter over quarter.

    正如預期,固定收益是今年和本季的一大亮點,全年實現 34.47 億雷亞爾,成長 49%,本季實現 9.85 億雷亞爾,季增 5%。

  • Important to highlight, as Maffra mentioned earlier, Fixed Income is a relevant component of our ecosystem and the results in retail are completely connected for distribution capacity under our relevance in secondary trading. I also would like to highlight those new vertical products presented more than 30% growth in the year, which means we are on track for a plan presented in our Investor Day in 2023.

    需要強調的是,正如 Maffra 之前提到的,固定收益是我們生態系統的相關組成部分,零售業的表現與我們在二級交易中的分銷能力完全相關。我還想強調一下那些今年成長超過 30% 的新垂直產品,這意味著我們正在按計劃實現 2023 年投資者日提出的計劃。

  • Moving on the next slide. Corporate & Issuer Services became an important contributor in our ecosystem, posted BRL2,289 million, marking 45% growth in the year. In the quarter, posted BRL599 million, which represents 9% growth quarter over quarter, marking a sound 4%, 5% growth in the year.

    轉到下一張投影片。企業及發行人服務成為我們生態系統的重要貢獻者,營收 22.89 億雷亞爾,年增 45%。本季度,營收為 5.99 億雷亞爾,季增 9%,全年成長率達 4% 至 5%。

  • Issuer Services delivered solid results again on the back of DCM activity, achieving BRL1,324 million, with [6%] growth during the year and reached BRL337 million in the quarter, a 5% growth quarter over quarter. On the back of a stronger quarter for Issue Services, Corporate division was able to capture cross-selling opportunities, mainly if derivatives. Corporate posted BRL260 million in the quarter, with 14% growth quarter over quarter.

    發行人服務在 DCM 活動的推動下再次取得了穩健的業績,實現 13.24 億雷亞爾,年內增長 [6%],本季度達到 3.37 億雷亞爾,環比增長 5%。由於發行服務本季表現強勁,企業部門能夠抓住交叉銷售機會,主要是衍生性商品。本季企業營業收入為 2.6 億雷亞爾,季增 14%。

  • Looking to the full year, it represented BRL965 million, a 45% growth year over year. We have been talking about our warehousing strategy and recycle mode for some quarters. To provide you if the clear view of what robust engine we have in the fixed income arena, the increase starts origination investment banking, allocating a part of our issuance in our book and then ordering new retail institutional clients.

    縱觀全年,其營收達到 9.65 億雷亞爾,年增 45%。我們已經討論了幾個季度的倉儲策略和回收模式。為了讓您清楚了解我們在固定收益領域擁有的強大引擎,成長從發起投資銀行業務開始,在我們的帳簿上分配部分發行,然後訂購新的零售機構客戶。

  • This was another quarter in which we, not only distributed most of the previous quarter book, but also build a new portfolio of competitive products to meet client demand in the first quarter of 2025, mitigating expected seasonal impacts. This approach mirrors the strategy we executed in the second quarter of 2024, enhancing our competitiveness by offering high-return products, compared to traditional time deposits on taxes and notes from large banks. Our security books achieved BRL32 billion, representing 4% growth quarter over quarter.

    在這個季度中,我們不僅完成了上一季大部分的銷售任務,還建立了新的有競爭力的產品組合,以滿足 2025 年第一季的客戶需求,從而減輕了預期的季節性影響。這種方法反映了我們在 2024 年第二季度實施的策略,與傳統的稅收定期存款和大型銀行的票據相比,透過提供高回報產品增強了我們的競爭力。我們的安全帳簿達到了 320 億雷亞爾,季增 4%。

  • Moving on the next slide, we will explore our SG&A efficiency ratios. We believe our competitive edge is driven by our ability to continue to invest in our car business, new technologies, expansion of our advisory network, and product development, while maintaining strict cost, and expense control. Unlike our competitors, we are born digital, which position us to sustain growth while improving efficiency. As a result, we grew 15% in total revenues and 10% in SG&A during the year.

    在下一張投影片中,我們將探討銷售、一般及行政開支效率比率。我們相信,我們的競爭優勢來自於我們繼續投資於汽車業務、新技術、擴大諮詢網絡和產品開發,同時保持嚴格的成本和費用控制的能力。與我們的競爭對手不同,我們天生就是數位化的,這使我們能夠在提高效率的同時保持成長。結果,我們全年總收入成長了 15%,銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 10%。

  • Total expenses posted BRL5,927 million, just a reminder, we incorporated Banco Modal in the second semester of '23, creating a new baseline for the full year of 2024. So when we compare 4Q '24 and 4Q '23 the SG&A will only 2%. At the same time, we also launched several new products, introduced our Financial Planning Platform and higher close to 800 new internal advisers. Looking to 2025, we have new rounds of investments to enhance our platform, improving our banking product offerings with better segmentation and the full year carry of the new internal advisers hired in 2024.

    總支出為 59.27 億巴西雷亞爾,提醒一下,我們在 23 年下半年成立了 Banco Modal,為 2024 年全年創造了新的基準。因此,當我們比較 24 年第四季和 23 年第四季時,銷售、一般及行政費用僅為 2%。同時,我們也推出了幾款新產品,介紹了我們的財務規劃平台,並增加了近 800 位新的內部顧問。展望 2025 年,我們將進行新一輪投資來增強我們的平台,透過更好的細分改善我們的銀行產品供應,並為 2024 年聘請的新內部顧問提供全年支援。

  • Moving to efficiency ratio on the next slide. As we can see on the right hand of the slide, we improved the efficiency ratio in 157 basis points during the year, achieving 34.7%. We also proved this ratio in 78 basis points in the quarter. As mentioned in the previous slide for the full year ensuring efficiency, while continuing to invest in strategic areas, we expect our efficiency ratio to improve throughout the year.

    下一張投影片講的是效率比率。正如我們在幻燈片右側看到的,我們在這一年中將效率比率提高了 157 個基點,達到了 34.7%。我們也在本季以 78 個基點證明了這一比率。正如上一張投影片中所提到的,為了確保全年的效率,在繼續對策略領域進行投資的同時,我們預計我們的效率比率將在全年得到提高。

  • Let's delve into EBT now. As a result, our strategy to provide new and innovative solutions together with our strict cost control drove a unprecedented EBT and EBT margin expansion through the year. Along with these actions, we also organized our corporate structure, decreasing materially our cost of capital and funding, benefiting both wholesale and retail banking business, and also better position XP to compete in those markets.

    現在讓我們深入研究 EBT。因此,我們提供新的創新解決方案的策略與嚴格的成本控制相結合,推動了全年 EBT 和 EBT 利潤率前所未有的擴大。除了採取這些行動之外,我們還組織了公司結構,大幅降低了資本和融資成本,使批發銀行業務和零售銀行業務都受益,也使 XP 在這些市場上具有更好的競爭力。

  • So our EBT responded those decisions during the year presenting 26% growth and achieving BRL4,907 million (sic - see slide 24, "BRL4,974 million"). In the quarter, EBT totaled BRL1,289 million, posting 6% growth quarter over quarter and 30% growth comparing to the 4Q '23.

    因此,我們的 EBT 在當年回應了這些決定,實現了 26% 的成長,達到了 49.07 億巴西雷亞爾(原文如此 - 參見幻燈片 24,「49.74 億巴西雷亞爾」)。本季度,息稅前利潤總額為 12.89 億巴西雷亞爾,季增 6%,季增 30%。

  • Our EBT margin market, 29.1% for the year, posting a strong increase of 263 basis points. In the quarter, EBT margin was 28.7%. 66 basis points higher quarter over quarter and or 430 basis points expansion compared to the 4Q '23. For 2025, our efforts will be to expand our ecosystem, capture the benefits of a larger business, and target our commitment to 2026 to deliver EBT margin between 30% and 34%.

    我們的 EBT 利潤率市場全年為 29.1%,強勁成長 263 個基點。本季度,EBT 利潤率為 28.7%。與上一季相比,成長 66 個基點,與 23 年第四季相比,成長 430 個基點。展望 2025 年,我們將努力擴大我們的生態系統,獲取更大業務帶來的好處,並致力於在 2026 年實現 30% 至 34% 之間的息稅前利潤率。

  • On next slide, we see the adjusted net income. 2024 was a year with more than average, even for Brazil. Remember that in the beginning of the year, macro expectations were different from the 2Q '24 and way different from the last quarter of the year. We did what we said and delivered results aligned in our 2026 guidance released in December 2023.

    在下一張投影片中,我們看到調整後的淨收入。 2024 年是超過平均值的一年,甚至對巴西來說也是如此。請記住,今年年初的宏觀預期與 2024 年第二季不同,與去年最後一季也有很大不同。我們履行了承諾,並實現了與 2023 年 12 月發布的 2026 年指引一致的成果。

  • And the adjusted net income in the year achieved BRL4,504 million (sic -- see slide 25, "BRL4,544 million"), a 17% growth year over year. And in quarter, it was BRL1,210 million. Excluding the one-off impact, representing 2% growth quarter over quarter.

    全年調整後淨收入實現 45.04 億雷亞爾(原文如此-參見投影片 25,「45.44 億雷亞爾」),年成長 17%。本季度,數字為 12.1 億巴西雷亞爾。排除一次性影響,季增2%。

  • As we talked during the last two quarters, it's important to remember that our estimates on normalized ETR was around 18%, and it was the case. Since in the quarter market, 17.9%; and in the year, 18.7% we expect the effective tax rate to remain around 18%.

    正如我們在過去兩個季度所討論的那樣,重要的是要記住,我們對標準化 ETR 的估計約為 18%,事實確實如此。本季市場以來,上漲17.9%;而今年我們預計有效稅率將維持在18%左右。

  • Let's move on to the next slide to talk about capital management. As we had commented last quarter, we started to provide full view on capital and risk-weighted asset figures. Looking at our business ratio, it stood at 17.7% at the end of 2024. As a reminder, we distributed BRL2 billion in dividends and have an ongoing share buyback program.

    我們繼續下一張投影片來討論資本管理。正如我們上個季度所評論的那樣,我們開始提供有關資本和風險加權資產數據的全面視圖。從我們的業務比率來看,到 2024 年底,該比率為 17.7%。提醒一下,我們已派發 20 億巴西雷亞爾的股息,並且正在進行股票回購計畫。

  • As we previously highlighted, turnover volume in fixed income reached all-time high driven by our investments in secondary trading technology. We remain highly optimistic about this trend, which gave us the confidence to expand our books by BRL9 billion of high-quality securities. This strategy allowed us to capitalize on the widening credit spreads at the end of the year, enabling us to warehouse those assets at a more competitive level. Additionally, it's important to note that half of the volume was related to tax exempt notes from quiet sovereign banks supported by the launch of a new product in Brazil, the development credit notes.

    正如我們之前強調的那樣,在我們對二級交易技術的投資的推動下,固定收益的營業額達到了歷史最高水平。我們對這一趨勢仍然非常樂觀,這使我們有信心將優質證券的帳簿擴大 90 億雷亞爾。這項策略使我們能夠利用年底擴大的信用利差,使我們能夠以更具競爭力的水平儲存這些資產。此外,值得注意的是,其中一半的交易量與一些主權銀行的免稅票據有關,這些票據受到巴西推出的新產品——發展信貸票據的支持。

  • Similar to the second quarter, we expected to sell these assets in the first quarter of 2025, helping to offset the seasonally weaker DCM activity during that period. If that in mind, we are confident in our capital level, and there are no changes to our guidance.

    與第二季類似,我們預計將在 2025 年第一季出售這些資產,以幫助抵消該時期季節性較弱的 DCM 活動。考慮到這一點,我們對我們的資本水準充滿信心,並且我們的指導不會發生任何變化。

  • We continue to target a BIS ratio between 16% and 19%. It's also important to highlight that XP holds a higher proportion of CET1 capital at 16%, way above local peers. Additionally, we expect the implementation of the new 4966 Regulation from the Brazilian Central Bank to have a positive impact in your business ratio over 2025.

    我們繼續將 BIS 比率目標設定在 16% 至 19% 之間。值得一提的是,XP 持有的 CET1 資本比例高達 16%,遠高於當地同業。此外,我們預期巴西中央銀行實施的新 4966 法規將對您 2025 年的業務比率產生正面影響。

  • On the right-hand side of the slide, we also again presented our RWA to total assets ratio at 30%. The observed shift in the breakdown between credit and market RWA was driven by the increase in our warehouse books. Since the third quarter, credit spreads in the trading book have been accounted for as market risk. Despite this, our business maintains a comfortable average daily VaR, reaching 16 basis points over equity or BRL32 million in dissolute terms.

    在投影片的右側,我們也再次展示了 RWA 與總資產的比率為 30%。信貸和市場 RWA 之間細目變化的現像是由我們的倉庫帳簿增加所導致的。自第三季起,交易帳戶中的信用利差已被視為市場風險。儘管如此,我們的業務仍保持著良好的平均每日 VaR,達到股權的 16 個基點或折合為 3,200 萬巴西雷亞爾。

  • Our capital strategy results in a conservative business ratio, while supporting higher profitability and return to shareholders as we are going to see in the next slide.

    我們的資本策略產生了保守的業務比率,同時支持更高的獲利能力和股東回報,正如我們將在下一張投影片中看到的那樣。

  • This slide summarizes our capital distribution for the past three years, reaching close to BRL10 billion in dividends and buybacks. This year, our total payout ratio was 74%, if BRL3.6 billion capital return. And looking to the next couple of years, we maintain our goal to deliver more than 50% payout ratio.

    這張投影片總結了我們過去三年的資本分配情況,股利和回購總額接近 100 億巴西雷亞爾。今年我們的總股利支付率為74%,資本報酬率為36億雷亞爾。展望未來幾年,我們仍將目標定為實現 50% 以上的派息率。

  • Now let's see our EPS and ROTE. Our earnings per share evolution continues to post a solid growth and achieved BRL8.28, a 16% increase year over year.

    現在讓我們看看我們的 EPS 和 ROTE。我們的每股盈餘持續保持穩健成長,達到 8.28 巴西雷亞爾,年成長 16%。

  • Same trend that we see in ROTE and ROAE. ROTE achieved 29.2% in the quarter, representing 78 basis points higher quarter over quarter, and ROAE posted 23.4%, 40 basis points higher quarter over quarter. During the year, our ROTE market 28.7%, up 376 basis points higher year over year and ROAE achieved 23% if 164 basis points higher than last year.

    我們在 ROTE 和 ROAE 中看到的趨勢相同。本季,ROTE 達 29.2%,比上一季高 78 個基點,ROAE 達 23.4%,比上一季高 40 個基點。年內,我們的 ROTE 市場達到 28.7%,比去年同期高出 376 個基點,ROAE 達到 23%,比去年同期高出 164 個基點。

  • And now moving to my last stop, the new corporate structure. We mentioned last quarter that we conclude the corporate structure in Brazil, where the bank became the parent company. As a result, as we can see in this slide, the cost of capital is 35% lower than before, since we issued AT1 and T2 during the year. We could only capture part of this benefit in 2024. And we only see the fully loaded impact of lower cost of capital and also mature lower cost of funding in 2025.

    現在我要談談最後一站:新的公司架構。我們在上個季度提到,我們完成了巴西的公司架構,銀行成為了巴西的母公司。因此,正如我們在這張投影片中所看到的,自從我們今年發行 AT1 和 T2 以來,資本成本比以前降低了 35%。我們只能在 2024 年獲得部分利益。我們只會在 2025 年看到較低資本成本和成熟融資成本降低的全部影響。

  • Now moving back to Maffra, so he can do his final remarks, and then we go to the Q&A.

    現在回到馬夫拉,讓他做最後的發言,然後我們進入問答環節。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Victor. So before moving to Q&A, I would like to reinforce four topics.

    謝謝,維克多。因此,在進入問答環節之前,我想強調四個主題。

  • First, our all-weather ecosystem shown that our business go way beyond equities. 2024 was a challenging year, but we presented solid results demonstrating that our growth strategy is well positioned to deliver our 2026 guidance. Second, our retail net new money during the year was BRL81 billion, reaffirming that our target to increase, BRL20 billion per quarter is on back also for 2025.

    首先,我們的全天候生態系統顯示我們的業務遠遠超出了股票範圍。 2024 年是充滿挑戰的一年,但我們取得了穩健的業績,證明我們的成長策略完全有能力實現 2026 年的預期。其次,我們今年的零售淨新增資金為 810 億雷亞爾,這再次印證了我們在 2025 年實現每季 200 億雷亞爾成長的目標。

  • Third, we understand that our true financials are extremely intact. We are continuously evolving our product platform, our multichannel distribution, our new segmentation and our value-added service supported mainly by financial planning. All of this set us a part of other players for the long run.

    第三,我們知道我們的真實財務狀況極為完好。我們正在不斷發展我們的產品平台、多通路分銷、新的細分市場以及主要由財務規劃支援的增值服務。所有這一切使我們在長期內成為其他參與者中的一員。

  • And lastly, our capital discipline translates into a conservative approach, more efficient and with higher return to our shareholders. During the last three years, XP distributed dividends and executed share buybacks programs close to BRL10 billion, and we will keep working to increase our profitability during 2025 and the next years.

    最後,我們的資本紀律轉化為保守的方法,更有效率,為股東帶來更高的回報。在過去三年中,XP 派發了近 100 億雷亞爾的股息並執行了股票回購計劃,我們將繼續努力在 2025 年及未來幾年提高盈利能力。

  • Now, Andre Parize will start our Q&A session.

    現在,Andre Parize 將開始我們的問答環節。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Thiago Batista, UBS.

    瑞銀的蒂亞戈·巴蒂斯塔。

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

    Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • Okay. Congrats on the results. I have two questions. The first one on the capital or the BIS ratio. This quarter, we saw a big increase in the risk-weighted assets if not wrong, around 12% Q over Q -- mainly on market risk. Can you comment about this movement?

    好的。恭喜你所取得的成果。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於資本或BIS比率。本季度,我們看到風險加權資產大幅增加,如果沒有記錯的話,環比增長了 12% 左右,主要是由於市場風險。您能評論一下這項運動嗎?

  • And the second one about the internal advisers you mentioned Maffra in the first page of the press release that they represented about 60% of all the net new money of the year. And they are about 15% only of your sales force. Can you comment on why those guys are so much more efficiency than the overall sales force?

    第二個問題是關於內部顧問,您在新聞稿第一頁提到了 Maffra,他們佔當年所有淨新資金的 60% 左右。他們僅佔銷售人員的15%左右。你能解釋為什麼這些人的效率比整體銷售人員高很多嗎?

  • And by the way, congrats for the beginning of the press release, the short page that you wrote. That was very good. I think it was very, very good.

    順便說一句,恭喜你撰寫的新聞稿和簡短的頁面的開始。那非常好。我認為這非常非常好。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Thiago, for the question. So I will start with the second part of the question, and then Victor will take the first one. And good evening, again, to everyone here.

    謝謝蒂亞戈提出這個問題。因此,我將先回答問題的第二部分,然後 Victor 將回答第一部分。再次向在座的各位晚上好。

  • So the 60% of net new money is not only from internal advisers, but internal advisers. You remember that we have three channels today. We have internal advisers, the IFAs, and the RIA model that's basically the wealth management and consultants, okay?

    所以60%的淨新資金不僅來自內部顧問,而且是內部顧問。你記得我們今天有三個頻道。我們有內部顧問、IFA 和 RIA 模型,基本上就是財富管理和顧問,好嗎?

  • So when we talk about the 60% is the, what we call, web service channel here, okay, and the B2C. So the two together combined is 60%.

    所以當我們談論 60% 時,我們稱之為網路服務管道,好的,還有 B2C。所以兩者加起來是 60%。

  • Soabout your question about the level of productivity, yes, when we compare the internal advisers versus the it's very different, okay? The level of productivity of the internal advisers, it's much higher. We have some hypothesis here. But the main one, I would say that's the the way we manage the sales team here. We have all the data, all the index level of activity. So we control the sales process in a much more standard way than the [offices], okay?

    關於你提到的生產力水平的問題,是的,當我們比較內部顧問與外部顧問時,情況是非常不同的,好嗎?內部顧問的生產力水準要高得多。我們在這裡有一些假設。但最重要的是,我想說這是我們管理這裡銷售團隊的方式。我們擁有所有數據、所有活動指數等級。因此,我們以比辦公室更標準的方式控制銷售流程,好嗎?

  • But all the tools, all the intelligence, all the technology, everything that developed for the internal advisers, we also provide for the IFAs, okay? So everyone here at XP know that -- knows very well that for me, the channel that I will focus more in 2025, it's the IFAs, the B2B channel because. I believe we have a hidden potential here to unlock value this year.

    但是,為內部顧問開發的所有工具、所有情報、所有技術以及一切,我們也都為 IFA 提供,好嗎?因此,XP 的每個人都知道——對我來說,我將在 2025 年更加關注的管道是 IFA,即 B2B 頻道。我相信我們今年有釋放價值的潛力。

  • Because it's basically how we get all the tools and all the techniques, the sales process that we have developed for the internal advisers and how we scale that for the the IFA network. So that's my main goal when we talk about channels for 2025. And I believe we can help their face even further to increase the productivity.

    因為這基本上就是我們如何獲得所有工具和技術、我們為內部顧問開發的銷售流程以及我們如何為 IFA 網路擴展它。所以當我們談論 2025 年頻道時,這就是我的主要目標。我相信我們可以進一步幫助他們提高生產力。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Thank you, Maffra. Thank you for your question, Thiago.

    謝謝你,馬弗拉。謝謝你的提問,蒂亞戈。

  • Just remembering here, since the third quarter of the year, credit spreads risk is allocated at market risk by the new Central Bank regulation. So when we increased our book in BRL8 billion of corporate securities and quasi sovereign government banks, we added risk at the market RWA, not at the creditor RWA since everything is booked in the trading book.

    這裡要提醒一下,從今年第三季開始,信用利差風險依照央行新規在市場風險中分配。因此,當我們將公司證券和準主權政府銀行的帳簿增加到 80 億雷亞爾時,我們增加的是市場風險加權資產的風險,而不是債權人風險加權資產的風險,因為所有內容都記在交易帳簿中。

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

    Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • Clear. Thanks for the answers.

    清除。謝謝您的回答。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Eduardo Rosman, BTG.

    愛德華多·羅斯曼,BTG。

  • Eduardo Rosman - Analyst

    Eduardo Rosman - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Congrats on the quarter. I have a question regarding competition with the banks and regulation. I think earlier last year, we saw the regulator adjusting right, the rules on instruments with tax benefits such as the LCIs and LCAs, which traditionally give the large banks an advantage, right?

    大家好。恭喜本季取得佳績。我有一個關於與銀行的競爭和監管的問題。我認為去年早些時候,我們看到監管機構進行了正確的調整,對具有稅收優惠的工具(例如 LCI 和 LCA)的規則進行了調整,這些規則傳統上使大型銀行具有優勢,對嗎?

  • Is -- I think, this impacted our ability to supply the market. And we saw, I think, an improvement on the fixed income market outside these banking instruments. I think -- and this naturally, I think, helps you, right? But at the end of the year, we saw kind of a big re-acceleration in the issuance of these banking instruments with tax benefits. So I wanted to know if you can explain to us what happened.

    是的——我認為這影響了我們供應市場的能力。我認為,我們看到這些銀行工具以外的固定收益市場有所改善。我認為——而且我認為這自然會對你有幫助,對吧?但在年底,我們看到這些有稅收優惠的銀行工具的發行大幅加速。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們解釋一下發生了什麼。

  • And additionally, we've been seeing some reports in the press talking about a potential relaxation of these rules. So if you could share your thoughts on this? Do you think it happens or not? And if it does, how that kind of might impact on our business?

    此外,我們也看到媒體上一些關於放寬這些規則的報導。那麼您可以分享一下對此的想法嗎?您認為這會發生嗎?如果確實如此,這會對我們的業務產生什麼影響?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • So I will start, and then you can complement myself here.

    因此我先開始,然後你可以在這裡補充我自己。

  • So to be honest, the scenario with high interest rate, it's very clear for everyone that it's -- it helps the banks a little bit on the competitive side. But I would say, especially in 2024, competing against -- if we go back one year or 1.5 years it was very hard for us to compete against the LCI, SCAs, and so on, because we didn't have -- I would say, the amount of this instruments that we need and not even the right price for the same price as the banks, okay?

    所以說實話,高利率的情況對每個人來說都很清楚——它在競爭力方面對銀行有一點幫助。但我想說,特別是在 2024 年,如果我們回溯到一年或一年半前,我們很難與 LCI、SCA 等競爭,因為我們沒有我們需要的數量,甚至沒有與銀行相同的價格,好嗎?

  • But we have been working very hard to find ways to replicate, to do partnerships, to warehouse to do revolving lines, to do repo. So I would say that we have developed waste, technology, and instruments to compete against the banks. So I would say that's not 100% the same, but today is very close. It was a big problem if we go back to 2023. It's not that big when we look today.

    但我們一直在努力尋找複製的方法、建立合作關係的方法、建立倉庫以進行循環管線的方法、進行回購的方法。所以我想說,我們已經開發了廢棄物、技術和工具來與銀行競爭。所以我想說這不是100%相同,但今天非常接近。如果我們回到2023年,那將是一個大問題。從今天來看,它並沒有那麼大。

  • So I don't think that any change in regulation would have a big impact for us right now. And again, we expect this year, I would say that the BRL20 billion that we are saying here is -- today, we see more as a floor than as like the target that should be the floor and we should deliver like higher net new money during the year.

    因此我認為目前任何法規的變化都不會對我們產生重大影響。再次,我們預計今年,我想說的是,我們今天所說的 200 億巴西雷亞爾更多的是一個底線,而不是目標,這應該是底線,我們應該在年內提供更高的淨新資金。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • [Guillermo Greizmann, JPMorgan.]

    [摩根大通的吉列爾莫·格雷茲曼(Guillermo Greizmann)]

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you, Maffra and team. Congrats on the results. Two questions on my side. The first one, actually on the balance sheet. We saw BRL0.5 billion mark-to-market on the equity side. I imagine it's related to securities on the fixed income or housing? If you could just put a little bit more color on that.

    謝謝你,Maffra 和團隊。恭喜你所取得的成果。我有兩個問題。第一個實際上在資產負債表上。我們看到股票方面的市值為 5 億巴西雷亞爾。我想它與固定收益證券或住房有關?如果你能給它添加一些色彩就好了。

  • It was surprising to us. We understood in the past that there was a hedge. Whenever you basically warehouse the security, we thought you basically do a hedge against the inflation-linked bonds and we're basically exposed only to the corporate credit risk. But by the comments, we understood that the market-to-market impact here was the Selic, the real rates in Selic moving up.

    這令我們非常驚訝。我們過去了解到,那裡有一道樹籬。無論何時,當您基本上倉儲證券時,我們認為您基本上是對沖通膨掛鉤債券,我們基本上只面臨企業信用風險。但透過評論,我們了解到這裡的市場對市場的影響是 Selic,Selic 的實際利率正在上升。

  • So if you can explore just a little bit the dynamics of this warehousing exposure to macro dynamics? And if we should expect a reversal of this market to market in the first quarter?

    那麼,您能否稍微探討一下這種倉儲暴露對宏觀動態的影響呢?我們是否應該預期第一季市場會出現逆轉?

  • And then my second question is just related on capital. You probably -- when you look at return on tangible equity, it's running basically at 30%, right? And the risk-weighted assets is growing at 35%. So basically, the conclusion -- top-down conclusion here, we reach is basically -- you're not generating organic capital in this pace of growth of RWA.

    我的第二個問題與資本有關。您可能會——當您查看有形資產回報率時,它基本上是 30%,對嗎?風險加權資產成長率為35%。因此,基本上,我們得出的結論是——自上而下,你並沒有以這種 RWA 成長速度產生有機資本。

  • And when we try to do the math, I think there is a guidance of more than 50% payout for the next two years. It seems you're going to fall below the 16% range that you had before.

    當我們嘗試進行計算時,我認為未來兩年​​的派息預期將超過 50%。看起來你將跌至之前的 16% 範圍以下。

  • At the same time, there was -- in the final remarks of this slide, a few CET1 numbers. It was not clear to us if you're revising the target or not. But just if you can help us understand the math and the moving parts behind the capital? Because to us, we couldn't match kind of the payout that you're guiding to the capital generation we are seeing today? Thank you.

    同時,在這張投影片的最後,也提到了一些 CET1 數字。我們不清楚您是否修改了目標。但您是否能幫助我們理解資本背後的數學和運作部分?因為對我們來說,我們無法達到您所指導的與我們今天看到的資本創造相對應的支出?謝謝。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thank you for your question. Starting if the OCI, that does not come from the warehouse books. Those are balance sheet hedges, so just trying to give some color here. That's MTM of government bonds that goes against equity, but the bonds are hedging several assets and liabilities that are booked at amortized cost.

    好的。感謝您的提問。如果從OCI開始,那就不是來自倉庫帳簿。這些都是資產負債表對沖,因此只是想在這裡給出一些說明。這是與股票相反的政府債券的 MTM,但這些債券對沖了幾項按攤銷成本入帳的資產和負債。

  • So basically, we have a distortion known side. Since one component is going to action and the other one is not. To give you an example -- a real example here, imagining that we have an inflation-linked loan booked at amortized cost, and the hedge is against at [N10B] available for sale going to OCI.

    因此基本上,我們有一個已知的扭曲面。因為一個元件將要運行,而另一個則不會。舉個例子 - 這是一個真實的例子,假設我們有一筆以攤銷成本入帳的通膨掛鉤貸款,對沖金額為 [N10B],可供出售給 OCI。

  • Our P&L is zero, but the first one is not going action. The second one is going to the action. We will take advantage of the new Central Bank regulation, the 4966, that start live in 2025. And we will harmonize those booking models for our hedges and balance sheet and should eliminate this effect for the future. I don't know if it was clear.

    我們的損益為零,但是第一個沒有採取行動。第二個是採取行動。我們將利用 2025 年開始實施的新中央銀行法規 4966。我們將協調對沖和資產負債表的帳面模型,並消除未來的影響。我不知道是否清楚了。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Yeah, super important. So actually, you have unrealized gains in the health maturity of BRL0.5 billion as well?

    是的,非常重要。那麼實際上,您在健康保險到期保險中也擁有 5 億巴西雷亞爾的未實現收益嗎?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Exactly. At amortized cost, my loan portfolio emissions that I had against market and then you go.

    確切地。以攤銷成本計算,我的貸款組合排放量與市場排放量相符,然後你就走了。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • No, that's clear. That's important and super clear answer.

    不,這很清楚。這是一個重要且非常明確的答案。

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Great. Going to the RWA question, it's important to reiterate that RWA growth has been driven primarily by the expansion of the wholesale banking franchise, which is relatively new -- we are gaining market share and deliver higher hard ROEs than our peers. And most of wholesale banking business as derivatives, the market-making warehouse, you choose what business lines you first starting if dragging your capital, then we realize your gains over time.

    好的。偉大的。談到 RWA 問題,必須重申的是,RWA 成長主要受到批發銀行特許經營權擴張的推動,該業務相對較新——我們正在獲得市場份額並提供比同行更高的硬 ROE。而且批發銀行業務大部分都是衍生性商品,做市商倉單,你選擇什麼業務線你先入手,如果拖累了你的資本,那麼我們隨著時間的推移實現你的收益。

  • So as we are scaling the business, it's natural that the RWA growth. But if you compare the growth of the RWA, if the growth of the the business inside corporate and corporate banking, we are growing our revenue faster than the risk. And also, our bank will reach maturity at some point in the future. And the pace of evolution of the RWA will be more normalized in the growth of the revenue.

    因此,隨著我們業務規模的擴大,風險加權資產成長是自然的。但是,如果比較風險加權資產的成長以及企業和企業銀行業務內部業務的成長,就會發現我們的收入成長速度快於風險成長速度。而我們的銀行將來某個時候也會成熟。而風險加權資產的演變速度在收入的成長中也會更加常態化。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • And just to complement, Victor, here, because you mentioned that if we were changing the guidance for payouts and for the next year, no. We are very comfortable that we are going to to pay more than 50% this year in the next one.

    只是為了補充一下,維克多,因為你提到,如果我們要改變支付指導和明年的支付指導,那就不行。我們非常放心,明年我們將會支付今年超過 50% 的費用。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay. And just to confirm, the capital ratio is still 16% to 19%, right? The target?

    好的。需要確認的是,資本比率仍然是 16% 到 19%,對嗎?目標?

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, it is.

    是的。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Gustavo Schroden, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Gustavo Schroden。

  • Gustavo Schroden - Analyst

    Gustavo Schroden - Analyst

  • Hi, good evenin, everybody. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on a good year, challenging year, and you developed good results.

    嗨,大家晚上好。感謝您回答這個問題,並祝賀您度過了一個美好的一年,充滿挑戰的一年,並取得了良好的成績。

  • Before I make my question, just a follow-up on the first question about the IFAs and the internal advisers. Maffra, when you say that your main goal in 2025 is to focus on IFAs, you mean that the idea is to replicate all the tools and techniques that you applied for -- that you applied on internal advisers and gain productivity -- any to have the same productivity in IFAs, that's the idea here. I'm trying to understand better what you mean when you say that the main goal is to IFA and using the techniques and tools from internal advisers.

    在我提出問題之前,我先來跟進一下第一個關於 IFA 和內部顧問的問題。馬夫拉,當您說 2025 年的主要目標是專注於 IFA 時,您的意思是,我們的想法是複製您應用的所有工具和技術——您在內部顧問身上應用的那些工具和技術,並提高生產力——任何能在 IFA 中取得同樣的生產力的方法,這就是這裡的想法。我想更好地理解您所說的主要目標是 IFA 並使用內部顧問的技術和工具是什麼意思。

  • My second question is it's about the take rate. So going back to your business, you were clear in saying that you should expect net new money at BRL20 billion per quarter in 2025. So it's part of our equation. So if you could share with us that what's the take rate implied in your expectations for 2025? I believe that as the fixed income share -- gain share, it puts more pressure on the take rate.

    我的第二個問題是關於接受率。所以回到您的業務,您明確表示,預計 2025 年每季的淨新增資金將達到 200 億雷亞爾。所以這是我們方程式的一部分。那麼,您能否與我們分享一下您對 2025 年預期的隱含接受率是多少?我相信,隨著固定收益份額的增加,它會對接受率帶來更大的壓力。

  • So how the company thinks about take rate? What should we expect in 2025? Do you think that this BRL1.33 billion is the best guess we can have?

    那麼公司對於接受率是怎麼考慮的呢?我們對 2025 年應該抱持著怎樣的期待?您認為 13.3 億巴西雷亞爾是我們能做出的最佳猜測嗎?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Gustavo. Starting from the first question, just to make it clear. When I say my main goal when we are talking about channels, okay, because I have other goals here. But when we talk about the three channels, the main one that they will put more effort this year, it's the B2B channel, okay? And why?

    是的。感謝您的提問,古斯塔沃。從第一個問題開始,只是為了說清楚。當我們談論管道時,我說我的主要目標,好的,因為我在這裡還有其他目標。但當我們談論這三個管道時,他們今年將投入更多精力的主要管道是B2B頻道,好嗎?為什麼?

  • Because if we go back to 2021, one of my goals when we talk about channels, was to diversify the channels. So back in 2021, I would say that the -- I don't have the precise number here, to be honest, but I would guess the IFA was about like 80%, okay, more or less year. And today, it's 40%, okay? So I spend a lot of time working side by side with internal people here with the leaders to develop the B2C channel and also to develop the corporate channel, okay?

    因為如果我們回到 2021 年,當我們談論通路時,我的目標之一就是實現通路多樣化。所以回到 2021 年,我想說——老實說,我這裡沒有確切的數字,但我猜 IFA 大約是 80%,好的,或多或少是一年。今天是 40%,好嗎?因此,我花了很多時間與這裡的內部人員和領導者一起開發 B2C 管道以及企業管道,好嗎?

  • So I would say that these two channels, they are in a very good shape today, okay, growing, we have the right leaders. They are performing well. The returns are very good. And now it's time to put more effort in how we increase the productivity and how we deploy the same techniques, the same technology, the same sales management tools we have on the IFA channel.

    所以我想說,這兩個管道現在狀況非常好,正在不斷發展,我們有合適的領導者。他們表現良好。回報非常豐厚。現在我們該付出更多努力來提高生產力,以及如何在 IFA 通路上部署相同的技巧、相同的技術、相同的銷售管理工具了。

  • So it was exactly your question. But again, just to make it clear, it's not my one goal for 2025 it's talking about channels, okay? Not about everything at the XP.

    這正是你的問題。但再次說明一下,這不是我 2025 年的唯一目標,而是關於管道,好嗎?並非關於 XP 的一切。

  • And for the second question, if you look the take rate for the past three years, it's around 1.28%, okay? The guys here, they can help me, but it was 1.28% and probably 1.29% this year. okay? So it has been flattish for the past three years. When we say that this year, we are going to deliver more than 10% growth on top line and and 10% for me is conservative here, we should deliver more, okay, is considering the same take rate.

    對於第二個問題,如果您查看過去三年的接受率,它約為 1.28%,好嗎?這裡的人可以幫助我,但今年的比例是 1.28%,可能是 1.29%。好的?因此過去三年來一直持平。當我們說今年我們的營業額要成長 10% 以上時,對我來說 10% 是保守的數字,我們應該實現更多的成長,好的,正在考慮相同的提取率。

  • We don't -- we are not projecting higher take rates for the near future. Yes, we believe we are like close to the end of the cycle because of the changing mix because if we look at, last three year because of the high Selic rates, volatility and so on, all day you see moving from higher ROTE products to fixed income products with much lower ROTE. We believe we are at the end of this cycle. We don't know if we are there yet or not okay. But we are close to that, but we are not rejecting that on the internal budget or the numbers that we are showing here.

    我們不會—我們不會預測近期的接受率會更高。是的,我們相信我們已接近週期的尾聲,因為組合正在發生變化,如果我們看一下,過去三年,由於 Selic 利率高、波動性等,你會看到整個過程都是從 ROTE 較高的產品轉向 ROTE 較低的固定收益產品。我們相信我們已處於這個週期的末期。我們不知道我們是否已經到達那裡。但我們已經接近這個目標了,但我們不會在內部預算或我們在這裡展示的數字上拒絕這一點。

  • So we are expecting a flat take rate for 2025.

    因此我們預計 2025 年的收費率將保持穩定。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Tito Labarta。

  • Tito Labarta - Analyst

    Tito Labarta - Analyst

  • Also, two questions also, if I may. Thanks for the revenue guidance on 2025. And Maffra you mentioned you think it's conservative. But just -- I mean it does need to be a little higher to get to that 2026 guidance. So just to think about where the upside to 10% could come from? I mean, you mentioned maybe you're getting closer to the end of the cycle on the mix shift.

    另外,如果可以的話,我還有兩個問題。感謝您對 2025 年的收入指導。您提到馬弗拉 (Maffra),您認為它是保守的。但只是——我的意思是它確實需要稍微高一點才能達到 2026 年的指導目標。那麼試想一下,10% 的上漲空間從何而來?我的意思是,您提到也許您已經接近混合轉變週期的結束。

  • I mean, I guess, do you need to see equities do better? Do you think there's enough growth in just like the fixed income and the new verticals, particularly given that the base is going to be higher in '25 to get the growth in 2026.

    我的意思是,你想看到股票表現更好嗎?您是否認為固定收益和新垂直領域的成長足以實現這一點,特別是考慮到 2025 年基數將會更高,以實現 2026 年的成長。

  • But just to think about where upside to that 10% growth, where could that come from? And do you need it to deliver on the guidance? And then second question, just on expenses, right? I mean, expenses growing around 10%. You're still guiding for some margin expansion.

    但試想一下,這 10% 的成長潛力來自哪裡?您需要它來傳達指導嗎?然後第二個問題,只是關於費用,對嗎?我的意思是,支出增加了 10% 左右。您仍在引導一些利潤率的擴大。

  • Is that 10% growth sort of the right level of growth? How much flexibility do you have there? Is there any other cost-cutting that you can do to keep the growth a bit lower? Or just how should we think about expense growth for this year?

    10%的成長率是正確的成長水準嗎?您的彈性有多大?還有什麼其他的削減成本的措施可以使得成長速度稍微保持在較低水準嗎?或者說我們該如何看待今年的支出成長?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • The first question, the way we have been presenting the company, the way we manage the company is on the three verticals, investments, cross-sell and the wholesale bank -- if we look what we did last year, and again, it's important to remember where we came from back in 2023 when we did our guidance and when we did our internal budget, FX, BRL was supposed to go to 4.5% interest rates going to 8.5%, 9%.

    第一個問題,我們一直以來展示公司的方式、管理公司的方式都涵蓋三個垂直領域,即投資、交叉銷售和批發銀行——如果我們回顧一下去年所做的事情,同樣重要的是要記住我們在 2023 年制定指導方針和製定內部預算時的出發點,外匯、巴西雷亞爾的利率應該從 4.5% 上升到 8.5%、9%。

  • So equities was supposed to go to [150] and the environment in 2024 was completely different, okay? And how we managed to deliver I would say, 100% of our internal budget and the guidance we gave because we have -- we were prepared for a tough environment, okay? We are not expecting a better environment, and we are, again, prepared for a tough environment for 2025.

    因此股市應該會達到 [150] 點,而 2024 年的環境將會完全不同,好嗎?我想說,我們成功地完成了 100% 的內部預算和指導,因為我們已經為艱難的環境做好了準備,好嗎?我們並不期待更好的環境,而且我們再次為 2025 年的艱難環境做好了準備。

  • So we are not projecting a better macro environment. We are working only with levers that we control here. And if we look at the three verticals that I mentioned, investments grew 13% last year. Remember, our business here that you see growth close to Selic rate because today, 65% of the total AUC is in fixed income linked somehow to Selic rate, okay?

    因此我們並未預測宏觀環境會變得更好。我們僅使用我們在這裡控制的槓桿來進行工作。如果我們看看我提到的三個垂直領域,去年投資成長了 13%。請記住,我們這裡的業務成長接近 Selic 利率,因為今天,65% 的總 AUC 是與 Selic 利率以某種方式掛鉤的固定收益,好嗎?

  • And so if we expect the Selic rate of 14%, 15% for this year, we should grow our AUC close to that number. On top of that, we have another BRL80 billion to BRL100 billion-plus here in net new money. So another 8% to 10% growth in AUC. So when we look here, it's hard to not do a math that we don't deliver another 13% here growth in the core investments as we did in 2024.

    因此,如果我們預計今年的 Selic 率為 14%、15%,那麼我們的 AUC 就應該接近這個數字。除此之外,我們還有另外800億至1000多億雷亞爾的淨新增資金。因此 AUC 又成長了 8% 到 10%。因此,當我們在這裡看時,很難不去計算,我們無法像 2024 年那樣在核心投資中再實現 13% 的成長。

  • Moving to cross-sell initiatives. We delivered 32%. We mentioned some, I would say, not guidance, but some projections here for some of the business lines, credit cards insurance, and so on, on the presentation. So in our internal projections, it's almost impossible to not deliver the same numbers we're delivering in 2024, okay?

    轉向交叉銷售計劃。我們的交付率為 32%。我想說,我們在演示中提到了一些,不是指導,而是對一些業務線、信用卡保險等的一些預測。因此,在我們的內部預測中,幾乎不可能不實現與 2024 年相同的數字,好嗎?

  • And when we go to wholesale bank, we are growing 45% when we take out the institutional business, that's more mature, okay? So again, we are -- continues to grow this year. I'm not sure if at the same level, but close to this level. So when you do the math, remember to achieve the guidance we have to grow a CAGR for the bottom of 12%. And for the top of the range, 21%, 22%, okay? So we delivered 17% last year and we are on the same pace for this year, okay? So for us, we are on track to deliver the guidance.

    當我們進入批發銀行時,當我們開展機構業務時,我們的成長率為45%,這更加成熟了,好嗎?因此,我們今年將繼續成長。我不確定是否處於同一水平,但接近這個水平。因此,當你進行計算時,請記住實現我們必須實現的指導,即實現 12% 底部的複合年增長率。最高限額是 21%、22%,可以嗎?去年我們的交貨率為 17%,今年我們的交貨速度也是一樣的,好嗎?因此對於我們來說,我們正在按計劃實現指導。

  • We don't see anything to change the guidance or to, should I say, that we are not going to reach the -- inside the guidance. It can be in the middle, it can be on the top or it can be more close to the bottom, but it depends a little bit how it goes this next two years, but we are very confident that we are today from the middle and up, okay, of the guidance.

    我們沒有看到任何可以改變指導意見的東西,或者說,我們不會達到指導意見內部的要求。它可能處於中間位置,也可能處於頂部,也可能更接近底部,但這在一定程度上取決於未來兩年的情況,但我們非常有信心,我們今天處於中間位置,並且處於指導水平之上。

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • I will take the one about expenses. First, I would like to give you a color on how we manage expenses in the company, We have everything very low latency. So efficiency ratio management is a daily task for the company. We project every business line revenue, expense, cost for every segment that we have at the company.

    我將討論有關費用的問題。首先,我想向大家介紹一下我們在公司是如何管理費用的,我們的所有東西的延遲都非常低。所以效率比率管理是公司的日常工作。我們預測公司每個部門的每個業務線的收入、支出和成本。

  • What we are committed is to keep improving the efficiency ratio over the year. So if the revenue is larger -- we have space to invest more in areas that are strategically for the company. If the revenue is going near the bottom of indication that we gave here, we will manage the expense to fit and deliver efficiency ratio improvement over the year.

    我們的承諾是全年持續提高效率比率。因此,如果收入較大,我們就有空間在對公司具有策略意義的領域進行更多投資。如果收入接近我們在此給出的指標底部,我們將管理費用以適應並在全年實現效率比率的提高。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Antonio Ruette, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的安東尼奧·魯埃特(Antonio Ruette)。

  • Antonio Ruette - Analyst

    Antonio Ruette - Analyst

  • And so I have two questions, if I may, one first in the quarter. So if you could please help us understand the head count here. So we see an increase of about 200 Q on Q on head count; but total advisers fall in 200. So this means a greater contribution from current advisers.

    因此,如果可以的話,我有兩個問題,第一個問題是本季的。所以如果您能幫助我們了解這裡的人數的話。因此,我們看到員工人數增加了約 200 人;但顧問總數減少了200人。所以這意味著現任顧問將做出更大的貢獻。

  • And also following up on that soft guidance of 10,000 internal adviser is this or how will this behave over the next quarters? So this first on head count and B2C, and also a second one, a more strategic one on new products. We note that a relevant part of the guidance for 2025 and even '26 is related to deployment of banking products and cross-selling, consortium cards.

    另外,根據 10,000 名內部顧問的軟指導,這種情況在接下來的幾季會如何表現?因此,這首先是關於員工數量和 B2C,其次是關於新產品的更具策略性的問題。我們注意到,2025年甚至2026年的指導意見的相關部分與銀行產品的部署和交叉銷售、聯盟卡有關。

  • And I would like you to explore a little bit the challenge of -- so considering that many of your IFAs already distributes products, not necessarily from XP, this would be great. Thank you.

    我希望你們能夠稍微探索一下其中的挑戰——考慮到你們的許多 IFA 已經分銷產品(不一定是 XP 產品),這將會很棒。謝謝。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you for the question, Antonio. So the first question about the number of people, the head count, okay? We have been deploying, I would say, about 50 -- it varies a lot month-to-month, but I would say 50 to 80 internal advisers per month, okay?

    謝謝你的提問,安東尼奧。所以第一個問題是關於人數,也就是人數,好嗎?我想說,我們已部署了大約 50 名內部顧問,每個月的部署數量差異很大,但我想說每月會有 50 到 80 名內部顧問,好嗎?

  • So I would say for 2025, our goal is to add around 500, 600 internal advisers, okay? So the 10,000 advisers, internal advisers, it was more an aspirational goal then than a strict plan. So we are heading, I would say, 500, 600 this year. And we can accelerate or not de-accelerate depending on the environment, on the KPIs.

    所以我想說,到 2025 年,我們的目標是增加大約 500 到 600 名內部顧問,好嗎?因此,10,000 名顧問、內部顧問更多的是一個理想目標,而不是一個嚴格的計畫。因此,我想說,今年我們的目標數字是 500 到 600。我們可以根據環境和 KPI 來加速或不減速。

  • We have all the KPIs for all the cohorts. If they are doing well, we go faster. If not, we adjust some things and before we move on. But that's the number, okay? So out of the 200, I would say, 100 and something 150, 130 they are internal advisers and the other people there all around the company, okay?

    我們擁有所有群組的所有 KPI。如果他們表現良好,我們就會加快速度。如果沒有的話,我們會調整一些事情,然後繼續前進。但這就是數字,好嗎?所以在這 200 人中,我想說有 100 人、150 人或 130 人是內部顧問,還有公司各地的其他人,好嗎?

  • You mentioned there was something else about the decrease in number of total advisers. Yes, remember that I mentioned that the main difference of performance from internal advisers and IFAs was the sales management techniques, tools and so on, okay, that we use. But for me, the second one is, I would say, the quality of the advisers, okay? So we have expanded really fast in the past, and we have what we call here a curve ABC, okay? So the best ones they are, A, then we have the B tier and so on.

    您提到了顧問總數減少的其他原因。是的,記得我提到過,內部顧問和 IFA 的績效的主要區別在於我們使用的銷售管理技術、工具等等。但對我來說,第二個因素是顧問的素質,好嗎?所以我們過去擴張得非常快,我們這裡有所謂的 ABC 曲線,好嗎?最好的是 A 級,然後是 B 級,依此類推。

  • And we have been very focused on having only the best ones, okay? So we are intentionally decreasing the number of IFAs in some case, okay? And the second point, and that more focus on IFAs, okay? We have -- we do the same methodology for internal advisers, but that's our daily business here, but we are also very focused on doing that on the IFAs.

    我們一直致力於提供最好的產品,好嗎?所以在某些情況下我們會故意減少 IFA 的數量,好嗎?第二點,多關注 IFA,好嗎?我們為內部顧問採用相同的方法,但這是我們的日常業務,但我們也非常專注於在 IFA 上這樣做。

  • And the second one, talking about -- remember that there was a change in regulation, I would say, midyear last year, that the IFA now they can be employees, okay? They can be under label agreements in Brazil, they could not the employees in the past, they had to be IFAs and partners. But with this change, we are starting to see some of the IFA offices changing IFAs from the independent model to the employee model, okay?

    第二個問題,說到--記得嗎,我想說,去年年中,法規發生了變化,IFA 現在也可以成為僱員,好嗎?他們可以在巴西簽訂品牌協議,過去不能是員工,他們必須是 IFA 和合夥人。但隨著這項變化,我們開始看到一些 IFA 辦公室將 IFA 從獨立模式轉變為員工模式,好嗎?

  • Actually, people that are not actually IFAs, they are like guys that work at desks, and some other tasks. Even these guys in the past, they were most part of them IFAs. And even some advisers in some of the IFA offices they are becoming employees, okay. We have, I would say, one big one that all the IFAs they become employees in the last two quarters. So that's why you see the number of IFAs decreasing focus, on qualities of IFAs and they're changing from IFA to employees.

    實際上,那些實際上並不是 IFA 的人,他們就像在辦公桌前工作並從事其他工作的人一樣。即使是過去的這些人,他們大多也是 IFA。甚至一些 IFA 辦公室的一些顧問也成為了員工,好的。我想說,我們有一個重要的事情,那就是所有的 IFA 在過去兩個季度都成為了員工。因此,您會看到 IFA 的數量逐漸減少,他們不再關注 IFA 的素質,而是關注員工。

  • And about the -- what was the second part? Okay. The cross-sell products, if they when they produce outside of XP, right? There are some ways of try to mitigate that. The first one -- imagine that an IFA is much smaller than XP, okay?

    那麼——第二部分是什麼?好的。如果他們在 XP 之外生產產品,那麼他們可以交叉銷售,對嗎?有一些方法可以嘗試緩解這種情況。第一個-想像 IFA 比 XP 小很多,好嗎?

  • And when we launch a product and we do the partnership with the payers to be a marketplace. We have much better agreement with these companies than the IFA is isolated. So for example, life insurance, when we started, as you mentioned, a lot of IFAs, they already did life insurance, especially whole life insurance with all the players that you guys know very well that are global.

    當我們推出一款產品時,我們會與付款人合作形成一個市場。我們與這些公司達成的協議比IFA單獨的協議好得多。以人壽保險為例,正如您所說,當我們開始做 IFA 時,他們已經做人壽保險了,尤其是終身人壽保險,其中所有參與者都是您熟知的全球性參與者。

  • But today, all of them, they do with us, all of them, okay. For some reasons. First one, we have better agreements than they had before. So they make more money doing through us than directly with these partners.

    但是今天,他們所有人,他們都和我們一起做,好吧。由於某些原因。首先,我們達成的協議比以前的更好。因此,他們透過我們賺的錢比直接與這些合作夥伴合作賺的錢更多。

  • Second one, we have better experience because imagine that you were an XP client two years ago and you buy a whole life insurance. You had to go to the insurance company, open an account, wire money to displace, you could not see your life insurance policy integrated in your financial planning, in XP. So it wasn't -- the experience for the client, the final client was a mess.

    第二,我們有更好的體驗,因為想像一下,兩年前你是 XP 客戶,並且你買了終身保險。您必須去保險公司,開設一個帳戶,匯款到位,在 XP 中,您無法看到您的人壽保險單整合到您的財務規劃中。所以事實並非如此——對於客戶來說,最終的客戶體驗是一團糟。

  • The third one, imagine that you are in an IFA, you have to open a new system. You have to go to five different insurance companies. You have to go there and put all the data, everything and to get a code, okay? Then you get back this code and you have to go through a lot of different systems.

    第三個,想像一下你在參加一個IFA,你必須開啟一個新系統。你必須去五家不同的保險公司。你必須去那裡輸入所有的數據,所有東西,然後取得程式碼,好嗎?然後你會得到這個代碼,你必須經過許多不同的系統。

  • Now we have one marketplace at XP, okay? We have our own insurance company, but we have other players. Our concept here is always to be on the platform, no matter for each product. And you can do everything on what we call here The Hub. That's the tool for the IFAs to sell everything from investments to life insurance. You go there, you do one quotation, you do everything through the system and everything is integrated for both the IFA and for the customer, okay?

    現在我們在 XP 有市場,好嗎?我們有自己的保險公司,但我們還有其他參與者。我們的理念是始終在平台上,無論對於每個產品。你可以在我們所謂的“The Hub”上做所有事情。這是 IFA 銷售從投資到人壽保險等各種產品的工具。你去那裡,做一次報價,你透過系統做所有事情,所有事情都為 IFA 和客戶整合在一起,好嗎?

  • And the fourth one, today, we have agreement exclusivity agreement with four investments with 90-plus percent of the IFA offices, and we have almost the same thing for all the other products, okay? When we do an investment in equities, or when we do a prepayment agreement with an IFA, we have exclusive today for all the products, okay? So of course, for some products that we don't have, we cannot ask them to do with us because we don't have -- of course, we have completely different financials for them, we will have to discuss.

    第四個,今天,我們與四項投資以及 90% 以上的 IFA 辦事處簽訂了獨家協議,我們對所有其他產品也幾乎簽訂了同樣的協議,好嗎?當我們進行股票投資或與 IFA 簽訂預付款協議時,我們今天對所有產品都擁有獨家經營權,好嗎?因此,當然,對於一些我們沒有的產品,我們不能要求他們與我們合作,因為我們沒有——當然,我們為他們提供完全不同的財務狀況,我們必須進行討論。

  • But again, remember the first point, usually, we have better agreements. We have better experience, and we have exclusivity agreement. So it's very for them like to do outside. Just to give you an example, in three months that we start consortium, we did like more than BRL1 billion in premium in two months, three months, okay? So it's growing very fast.

    但請再次記住第一點,通常情況下,我們會有更好的協議。我們擁有更好的經驗,我們有獨家協議。所以他們非常喜歡在戶外做事。舉個例子,我們成立財團後的三個月內,我們在兩個月、三個月內就獲得了超過 10 億巴西雷亞爾的保費,好嗎?所以它成長非常快。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Neha Argawal, HSBC.

    Neha Argawal,匯豐銀行。

  • Neha Argawal - Analyst

    Neha Argawal - Analyst

  • Just a very quick one. You mentioned about changing the credit card proposition. Could you just elaborate a bit on that? What are you changing for the credit card, any new features you're adding? I believe you card will continue to focus on your captive client base and not go open market?

    非常快。您提到了改變信用卡主張。能稍微詳細說明一下嗎?您對信用卡做了哪些改變?我相信您的卡將繼續專注於您的固定客戶群而不會進入公開市場?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Neha, for your question. Backwards, we are not going to open market, okay. So we are focused on our customers here. So don't worry. That's the first part of your question.

    謝謝 Neha 的提問。反過來說,我們不會開放市場,好吧。所以我們重點關注我們的客戶。所以不用擔心。這是你問題的第一部分。

  • If you get the products we have, we have basically two. What we call one that's basically for small clients, okay, with clean credit. And we have what we call the XP (inaudible), okay? The one we've invest back of 1% and so on. Now what we are doing, remember, if we -- you go back to the presentation.

    如果您購買我們的產品,我們基本上有兩種。我們所說的銀行基本上是針對小客戶,擁有良好的信用。我們有所謂的 XP(聽不清楚),好嗎?我們已經投資了 1% 等等。現在我們正在做的事情,記住,如果我們 - 你回到簡報。

  • There is one slide that we talk about segmentation.

    有一張投影片是有關細分的。

  • I know that it's very common for banks, but as we are born, more on affluent customers, we didn't have retail clients and private banking clients, okay, in the past we used to do the same value proposition from the middle to the clients on the bottle and to the clients from the top. okay?

    我知道這對銀行來說很常見,但是由於我們生來就更注重富裕客戶,我們沒有零售客戶和私人銀行客戶,好吧,過去我們曾經對中層客戶和高層客戶實行相同的價值主張。好的?

  • We started to change that two years ago. And today, we are much more mature. We can deliver different products, different pricing, different SLAs, different SLAs , different service. We have different financial planning, wealth management and so on for the different segments.

    我們兩年前就開始改變這種狀況。今天,我們已經成熟多了。我們可以提供不同的產品、不同的定價、不同的 SLA、不同的 SLA、不同的服務。我們針對不同的市場區隔提供不同的財務規劃、財富管理等。

  • And when we go to cards, it's the same thing this year in 2025, I would say early second quarter, we are going to release some new cards, okay, focus on I would say the unique clients that we called the XP Unique here, clients with more than BRL3 million in AUC and also another card for private bank clients, okay. So with different value proposition, different invest back, different benefits.

    至於信用卡,今年也是一樣的,2025 年,也就是第二季初,我們會發行一些新卡,重點關注那些我們稱之為 XP Unique 的獨特客戶,這些客戶的 AUC 超過 300 萬巴西雷亞爾,另外還有一張針對私人銀行客戶的卡,好的。因此,價值主張不同,投資報酬率也不同,收益也不同。

  • So a more suitable card for these clients, okay. And we believe it's going to be, much above the market something that's really new that there's no equal value proposition, especially for the private bank clients in Brazil.

    所以這是一張更適合這些客戶的卡片。我們相信,它將遠高於市場水平,這是一個全新的、沒有同等價值主張的產品,特別是對於巴西的私人銀行客戶而言。

  • Neha Argawal - Analyst

    Neha Argawal - Analyst

  • Understood. Very clear. Does that -- would that require additional investment, should we see OpEx or CapEx increasing because of these changes? Any material impact?

    明白了。非常清楚。這是否需要額外的投資,我們是否應該看到營運支出 (OpEx) 或資本支出 (CapEx) 會因這些變化而增加?有什麼實質影響嗎?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Nothing mature. Of course, they will have as they have more benefits. They will have a little bit higher COGS. But when we model that the revenue expansion, the higher interchange that we have better cash backs from Visa and so on, you should not see anything meaningful.

    沒什麼成熟的。當然,他們會擁有更多的好處。他們的銷貨成本會稍微高一點。但是,當我們模擬收入擴張、更高的交換率以及我們從 Visa 獲得的更好的現金回饋等時,你應該不會看到任何有意義的東西。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • [Marcelo, Bradesco BBI].

    [馬塞洛,Bradesco BBI]。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • So my question is regarding the expenses. So you guys said about to gain efficiency. So the goal is to gain efficiency in the next year or the next quarters, I don't know. But the point is in the last quarter, we saw a huge increase on the line of the bonuses. So the amount of bonuses was very huge comparing, especially in the last two years.

    我的問題是關於費用。所以你們說要提高效率。所以目標是在明年或下一季提高效率,我不知道。但重點是,在上個季度,我們看到獎金大幅增加。所以相較之下,獎金的金額就非常巨大,尤其是最近兩年。

  • So it's -- how can we predict that? So expenses, we have to predict that. So margins -- EBITDA margins gaining growing year-by-year, quarter-by-quarter, or annually? And another question is regarding provisions in the last quarter, we saw an increase in provisions again.

    那麼——我們如何預測這一點?所以我們必須預測費用。那麼利潤率-EBITDA 利潤率是逐年成長、逐季成長還是每年成長?另一個問題是關於上個季度的撥備,我們看到撥備再次增加。

  • So to be clear, this is the level that is recurrent, so around BRL100 million is the level that could be recurring to the next quarters?

    因此要明確的是,這是經常出現的水平,因此約 1 億巴西雷亞爾的水平可能會在下個季度重複出現?

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. I will take the second part of the question or the second question about the provisions. Remember that in the past quarters, Q2 and Q3 we mentioned that the level was not very correct because back there, we had some other positive impacts on the same line. It was in Q2 and Q3, something about BRL40 million to BRL50 million, and we said that the correct level should be around BRL90 million per quarter, okay.

    好的。我將回答問題的第二部分,或說有關規定的第二個問題。請記住,在過去的幾個季度,即第二季度和第三季度,我們提到水平不是很正確,因為在那裡,我們在同一條線上產生了一些其他積極影響。那是在第二季度和第三季度,大概是 4000 萬到 5000 萬雷亞爾,我們說正確的水平應該在每季度 9000 萬雷亞爾左右,好的。

  • So that was the speech in the last quarters. I would say that as we are growing the business and the loan book a little bit, we should be closer to BRL100 million, BRL110 million in the next quarters, Q1, Q2 and so on for 2025. So not a big increase from BRL90 million to BRL100 million, BRL110 million, but a small increase as the loan book is growing.

    這就是上個季度的演講。我想說,隨著我們業務和貸款規模的不斷增長,在接下來的幾季、第一季、第二季等等,我們的貸款金額應該會更接近 1 億雷亞爾、1.1 億雷亞爾。因此,從 9,000 萬雷亞爾到 1 億雷亞爾、1.1 億雷亞爾的成長幅度並不大,而是由於貸款帳簿的成長而出現了小幅成長。

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Taking the expense questions I think that you should also look at compensation ratio both compensation and efficiency ratio are at an all-time low, and they should keep gaining margin over the year. We may have one quarter or another quarter, if a slightly higher number -- the third quarter, for example, where we have our annual event. It may have a bit more. But over the year, we should deliver again in both of those indicators. And about the expense compensation expenses in the fourth quarter.

    談到費用問題,我認為您還應該看看薪酬比率,薪酬和效率比率都處於歷史最低水平,並且它們應該會在一年內繼續獲得增長。我們可能會有一個季度或另一個季度,如果數字稍微高一點——例如第三季度,我們會舉辦年度活動。可能還有更多。但今年,我們應該能夠再次實現這兩個指標。以及關於第四季的費用補償費用。

  • As Maffra said, we reached 100% of our internal budget. And basically, that is a performance metric that we have.

    正如馬夫拉所說,我們的內部預算已達 100%。基本上,這就是我們的績效指標。

  • We have an S-curve in remuneration. And when we reach our goals, we need -- we pay more our team on their parties. Basically, that is it.

    我們的薪酬呈S曲線。當我們實現目標時,我們需要為團隊的聚會支付更多的費用。基本上就是這樣。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Daniel Vaz, Safra.s

    丹尼爾·瓦茲,薩夫拉

  • Daniel Vaz - Analyst

    Daniel Vaz - Analyst

  • Two on my end here. On the waterfall slide that you showed us, the contribution by segment to reach the 10% growth in '25. two points called my attention. First, the DCM contraction that you expect for the market, this might be directly linked to your market share gains. Could you share with us what is your assumption for the system contraction in issuances?

    我這邊有兩個。在您向我們展示的瀑布幻燈片上,各部分貢獻在 25 年實現了 10% 的成長。有兩點引起我的注意。首先,您預期市場會出現 DCM 收縮,這可能與您的市佔率成長直接相關。您能否與我們分享您對系統性發行收縮的假設是什麼?

  • And second, the growth above 10% in Corporate & Institutional. Given that Institutional business in Brazil has been struggling to grow and funds, we're not seeing so many good projections for net new money still in the funds. What is the breakdown that you're assuming between these two segments? Are you expecting any growth to institutional business in 2025?

    其次,企業和機構貸款成長超過10%。鑑於巴西的機構業務一直在努力成長和籌集資金,我們並沒有看到太多關於基金中淨新增資金的良好預測。您假設這兩個部分之間的細分是怎麼樣的?您預計 2025 年機構業務會有所成長嗎?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you for your question. Starting with the DCM activity, it's too soon to say that the same activity will be lower over the year. we were seeing the pipeline a bit weaker for the first quarter as it is expected. You have summer vacation, carnival, and then you go.

    感謝您的提問。從 DCM 活動開始,現在說同一活動在一年內會降低還為時過早。正如預期的那樣,我們看到第一季的管道稍微弱一些。你有暑假,有狂歡節,然後你就走了。

  • And if you look at our presentation, we gave a caller that we are housed at BRL8 billion to BRL9 billion in corporate assets and taxes quasi sovereign government banks to have products to offer to our clients even though if our primary offering was a bit weaker. So we expect fixed income to keep performing very well through the quarter.

    如果你看一下我們的介紹,你就會知道,我們曾告訴過一位來電者,我們擁有 80 億到 90 億雷亞爾的公司資產,並且對準主權政府銀行徵收稅款,以便向我們的客戶提供產品,儘管我們的主要產品有點弱。因此,我們預計固定收益本季將繼續表現良好。

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, perfect. And institutional growth, as Maffra said, is a more mature line and it's more trading if [I invest both forms] and the size of the industrial funds. So there's no surprise here. If it's another tough year for institutional investors, probably, this revenue line will behave the same as last year.

    好的,完美。而且,正如馬夫拉所說,機構成長是一條更成熟的路線,如果(我同時投資這兩種形式)和工業基金的規模,那麼交易就會更多。因此這並不奇怪。如果對機構投資人來說這又是艱難的一年,那麼這條收入線的表現可能與去年相同。

  • What we are seeing that may take a catch for the next question also, is when we analyze our clients' portfolios, we see that the movement that we call [Selicization] should be near to an end for this level of interest rate. So basically, what that means, we suffered a lot over 2022, '23 and '24 if mix of -- change in mix of products.

    我們看到的可能對下一個問題也會產生影響的是,當我們分析客戶的投資組合時,我們發現,對於這一利率水平,我們稱之為 [Selicization] 的變動應該接近尾聲。所以基本上,這意味著,如果產品組合發生變化,我們在 2022、23 和 24 年會遭受很大的損失。

  • Basically clients moving from actual funds, hedge funds, equity trading to fixed income, this made a compression in our take rate for investments to be compensated by the growth in the fixed income platform. But now those lines should be stable or a bit lower and if the markets improve a bit, recovering over the year.

    基本上,客戶從實際基金、對沖基金、股票交易轉向固定收益,這壓縮了我們的投資報酬率,而固定收益平台的成長則彌補了這一差距。但現在這些線應該保持穩定或略低一些,而且如果市場有所改善,那麼一年內就會恢復。

  • And also the fixed income funds, the funds platform, they grow Selic plus something. So we keep confident that we will keep delivering results in both of those lines.

    此外,還有固定收益基金、基金平台,它們也發展了 Selic 等。因此,我們有信心繼續在這兩個領域取得成果。

  • And if you look at the corporate business line, basically, one of the main products that we have at the corporate business line is cross-sell products and issue services. And when you go to our DCM capacities, we are top three in the banking, but we are top one in taxes and corporate bonds. And those bonds, they are issued in inflation, the company's hedge the inflation exposure against our market-making desk.

    如果你看一下企業業務線,基本上,我們在企業業務線上的主要產品之一是交叉銷售產品和發行服務。而當談到我們的 DCM 能力時,我們在銀行業中排名前三,但在稅收和公司債方面我們排名第一。這些債券是在通貨膨脹的情況下發行的,公司利用我們的做市部門來對沖通膨風險。

  • So we expect that those taxes and corporate bonds keep a more sustainable pace of emissions over the year and the corporate should keep tracking the issue services revenue, and we expect both of them to be flattish over 2025. If corporate that the only products not only inflation linked, should outperform. You have energy, you have foreign exchange, other kind of derivatives. So it should keep the growing pace of 2025 -- 2024.

    因此,我們預計這些稅收和公司債券的排放速度在今年將保持更永續的水平,公司應繼續追蹤發行服務收入,我們預計這兩項在 2025 年都將保持穩定。若企業認為其唯一的產品不只與通膨掛鉤,則應表現優異。你有能源、有外匯、有其他類型的衍生性商品。因此它應該會保持 2025 年至 2024 年的成長速度。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Renato Meloni, Autonomous.

    雷納托·梅洛尼,自治。

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back to the slide where you're showing the growth revenue drivers, right? And specifically here on the DCM. So going back to your last answer, you're saying you expect volumes of DCM still flat, but you still had a bar that's showing like lower DCM volumes. So I'm still trying to figure out here what's the assumption there? Or if you're also assuming that you're going to have lower fixed income take rates on the -- on this market this year?

    我想回到您展示成長收入驅動因素的幻燈片上,對嗎?特別是關於 DCM。所以回到你上一個答案,你說你預期 DCM 的交易量仍然持平,但你仍然有一個顯示 DCM 交易量較低的長條圖。所以我仍在試圖弄清楚這裡的假設是什麼?或者您也假設今年市場上的固定收益利率將會降低?

  • And then if you move to the next bar that you said like compensating that for higher market share gains. How much market share gains you're embedding on this assumption here? And what gives you conviction that you're going to keep gaining my share in a more competitive market?

    然後,如果您轉到下一個欄目,您說的是如何補償更高的市場份額收益。基於這個假設,您預計市場佔有率將增加多少?那麼,什麼讓您確信您將在競爭更加激烈的市場中不斷贏得我的份額?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • I will take the first part here and then Victor can complement myself here. But I would say that the point here is when we talk about the 10% more than 10% there. As I mentioned, it's in my view here, it's more like a floor than the target, okay. If we take in consideration that the DCM volumes, they are going to decrease, okay. Of course, there is some impact on the year, okay.

    我將在這裡講第一部分,然後 Victor 可以在這裡補充我自己。但我想說這裡的重點是我們談論的是超過 10% 的 10%。正如我所提到的,在我看來,它更像是一個底線,而不是目標,好吧。如果我們考慮到 DCM 的數量,它們就會減少,好的。當然,對今年還是有一定影響的,好的。

  • But they are not as relevant because as Victor mentioned, we have a whole ecosystem around fixed income in the company. We have a 50% market share in the secondary market of corporate bonds, okay.

    但它們並不那麼重要,因為正如 Victor 所提到的,我們公司圍繞著固定收益擁有一個完整的生態系統。我們在公司債二級市場有50%的市場份額,好的。

  • Today, we have a volume traded volume from retail clients to institutional clients, that's much, much higher than three years ago. But -- so in our view, even though we have a lower primary market that, again, for us is too soon to say that the the primary market, especially for us, remember that we are different from the banks. We don't compete in all the business lines with them. We are much more strong in products that are related to retail that are tax exempt. So that's why we believe if the market shrink, we will have more market share, okay.

    今天,我們從零售客戶到機構客戶的交易量比三年前高出許多。但是 - 所以在我們看來,儘管我們的一級市場較低,但對我們來說,現在說一級市場還為時過早,特別是對於我們來說,請記住我們與銀行不同。我們並不在所有業務領域都與他們競爭。我們在免稅零售相關產品方面實力更強。所以我們相信,如果市場萎縮,我們將擁有更多的市場份額。

  • Because the type of products that we are the main issuers and that we have a powerhouse to distribute. They will not decrease on the same pace or percentage as the market.

    因為我們是此類產品的主要發行人,而且我們擁有強大的分銷能力。它們不會以與市場相同的速度或百分比下降。

  • So -- and we are developing a lot of new business line here on capital markets as Victor mentioned. When we look at corporate, we grew when we take out the institutional business, 45% last year, 45%, okay. So we are not going to decreased to 0 or decrease to 10% this year. If it's not 45%, it's 30%, it's 35%, it's 40%, okay. So because this business, they are very new.

    所以 — — 正如維克多所提到的,我們正在資本市場上開發許多新的業務線。當我們看企業時,如果我們去掉機構業務,我們的成長率是去年的 45%,45%,好的。所以今年我們不會降到 0 或降到 10%。如果不是 45%,那就是 30%,或 35%,或 40%,都可以。因為這個行業,他們非常新。

  • We just started many of them okay? When we look at energy, we started the business two years ago. So we are at the very beginning. When we look some kinds of derivatives, we just started. When we look fixed income for Latin America, we just started, okay.

    我們剛開始了許多,好嗎?就能源而言,我們兩年前就開始了這項業務。所以我們才剛開始。當我們研究某些類型的衍生性商品時,我們才剛開始。當我們關注拉丁美洲的固定收益時,我們才剛剛開始,好吧。

  • So we have a lot of new business lines on corporate, that gives us a lot of assurance that we are going to deliver numbers close or around what we delivered last year, okay.

    因此,我們在公司層級有很多新的業務線,這給了我們很大的保證,讓我們能夠實現接近或接近去年的數字,好的。

  • Despite a lower DCM -- if it happens, again, the Q1, it's not a proxy for the year, okay. Because every year, Q1 it's a lower level of activity for DCM for the past three years. We already predicted that. And that's why we -- one of the reasons why we increased the books as Victor mentioned because we knew that now we need products to sell, okay, in Q1. And the secondary market and all these other corporate projects, they will more than compensate the lower level of primarily DCM in Q1.

    儘管 DCM 較低 - - 如果它再次發生,那麼 Q1 就不能代表全年的情況了,好吧。因為每年第一季度,DCM 的活動水準都比較低,這已經是過去三年來最低的了。我們已經預測到了這一點。這就是為什麼我們增加書籍數量的原因之一,正如 Victor 所提到的,因為我們知道現在我們需要在第一季銷售產品。二級市場和所有其他企業項目將大大彌補第一季主要 DCM 的較低水準。

  • So we are very comfortable that we are delivering the same level when you look all those, products combined corporate credit and so on. We are being able, in Q1 to deliver the same level of revenues or even a growth.

    因此,當您看到所有這些產品結合企業信貸等時,我們感到非常滿意,我們提供的產品處於同一水平。我們能夠在第一季實現相同水準的收入,甚至實現成長。

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • Got it. I don't know if Victor is going to do a follow-up.

    知道了。我不知道維克多是否會做後續行動。

  • Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

    Victor Mansur - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the last point here that is important to mention is the corporate restructuring that we just finish in the 4Q. Basically, we started that in 2024. It took us the entire year to conclude all the process. And the last approval from the Brazilian Central Bank was November 19.

    我認為這裡值得一提的最後一點是我們剛剛在第四季完成的公司重組。基本上,我們從 2024 年就開始這麼做了。我們花了一整年的時間才完成整個過程。巴西央行最後一次批准是在11月19日。

  • So basically, we didn't have one single quarter of the fully loaded benefits of this new structuring in the company. So over the year of 2025, our bank has considering more competitive capital and funding prices, which will allow us to compete for business that we couldn't before, also helping to explain our confidence in the gaining of market share.

    所以基本上,我們在公司中沒有享受到這個新結構所帶來的全部好處的四分之一。因此,在 2025 年,我們銀行考慮提供更具競爭力的資本和融資價格,這將使我們能夠競爭以前無法競爭的業務,也有助於解釋我們對獲得市場份額的信心。

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • Perfect. That's understood on the market share. And here on our side, should we assume that fixed income take rates will come down this year?

    完美的。從市場佔有率可以理解這一點。那麼從我們的角度來看,我們是否應該假設今年固定收益利率將會下降?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • In our view -- not, but why do we believe it's going up?

    我們認為不是,但是為什麼我們相信它會上升呢?

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • There's been going up. I think part of that was also due to mark-to-market. So I have some concerns if that will continue at the same level or as the market comes down a bit, we'll also see some compression there?

    一直在上漲。我認為部分原因也是因為以市價計價。所以我有些擔心,這種情況是否會繼續保持在同一水平,或者隨著市場略有下跌,我們也會看到一些壓縮?

  • Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

    Thiago Maffra - Chief Executive Officer

  • The part of the mark-to-market last year was a very small part of the whole fixed income business, very, very low. So -- we don't have any directional or operator positions on credit spreads. So that's not our business. So you don't need to project a lower take rate because of that.

    去年以市價計價的部分在整個固定收益業務中只佔很小的一部分,非常非常低。所以 - 我們對信用利差沒有任何方向性或操作性部位。所以這不關我們的事。因此,你不需要因此而預測較低的接受率。

  • Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

    Andre Parize - Investor Relations Officer

  • Okay. Thank you all for your participation. Today was a long call. one hour only in Q&A. So I mean we're going to be more than happy to answer further questions through the IR team. And management is always available to see you in the next quarter. Thank you.

    好的。感謝大家的參與。今天的通話很長。問答環節僅持續一小時。所以我的意思是我們非常樂意透過 IR 團隊回答進一步的問題。管理層隨時歡迎您在下個季度前來拜訪。謝謝。