XP Inc (XP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Head of Investor Relations at XP Inc. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. On behalf of the company, I would like to thank you all for the interest and welcome you to our 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. This quarter, along with 2023 results will be presented by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Bruno Constantino, who will both be available for the Q&A session right after the presentation. (Operator Instructions)

    各位晚上好。我是 XP Inc. 投資者關係主管 Andre Parize。很高興今天能和大家在一起。我謹代表公司感謝大家的關注,並歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我們的執行長 Thiago Maffra 和財務長 Bruno Constantino 將公佈本季以及 2023 年的業績,他們都將在演示結束後參加問答環節。 (操作員說明)

  • And before we begin our presentation, please refer to our legal disclaimers on Page 2 on which we clarify forward-looking statements. And additional information on forward-looking statements can also be found on the SEC filings section on the IR website. So now I'll turn it over to Thiago Maffra. Good evening, Maffra.

    在我們開始演示之前,請參閱第 2 頁的法律免責聲明,我們在其中澄清了前瞻性聲明。有關前瞻性陳述的更多資訊也可以在 IR 網站的 SEC 備案部分找到。現在我將把它交給蒂亞戈·馬夫拉。晚上好,馬夫拉。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • Thanks, Andre. Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. It's a pleasure to be here tonight. I will start with a brief introduction to this year's highlights and key updates. As I mentioned in my annual letter, 2023 was both a challenging and a transformative year for XP. Despite these 2 difficult macro environment, we remain committed to better serving our clients through innovation, high-quality service and growth. In this slide, I would first like to talk about our financial performance for the year, marked by the resilience of our business model. I will leave for Bruno to talk about the fourth quarter's financials.

    謝謝,安德烈。各位晚上好。感謝您今天參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今晚很高興來到這裡。首先我簡單介紹今年的亮點和重點更新。正如我在年度信中提到的,2023 年對 XP 來說既是充滿挑戰的一年,也是改變的一年。儘管面臨這兩個困難的宏觀環境,我們仍然致力於透過創新、高品質服務和成長來更好地為客戶服務。在這張投影片中,我首先想談談我們今年的財務業績,其特點是我們業務模式的彈性。我將前往布魯諾談論第四季的財務狀況。

  • In 2023, we celebrated the milestone of surpassing the BRL 1 trillion mark in client assets with a market share at still less than 12% in investments for individuals in the country. This shows the large potential growth with still ahead of us. Despite the macroeconomic condition I just mentioned, we were able to achieve a 12% growth year-over-year in top line and 10% growth year-over-year in bottom line with approximately 100 bps growth in our EBT margin. This year was also marked by a strong focus on efficiency and cost discipline through the whole company as we achieved an efficiency ratio of 36%, the lowest level since our IPO. Our diluted EPS increased 16% year-over-year, reaching BRL 7.22 per share. Also in 2023, we returned almost BRL 4.5 billion in capital to our shareholders both in dividends and share buybacks, totaling a payout ratio of 114%.

    2023 年,我們慶祝了客戶資產突破 1 兆雷亞爾大關的里程碑,但在該國個人投資中的市佔率仍低於 12%。這顯示我們仍有巨大的成長潛力。儘管我剛才提到了宏觀經濟狀況,但我們的營收年增了 12%,淨利潤同比增長了 10%,EBT 利潤率增長了約 100 個基點。今年整個公司都高度重視效率和成本紀律,效率率為 36%,這是自 IPO 以來的最低水準。我們的稀釋後每股收益年增 16%,達到每股 7.22 雷亞爾。同樣在 2023 年,我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了近 45 億雷亞爾的資本,總股息率為 114%。

  • Lastly, I would like to talk about our guidance. We prefer midterm guidance than annual guidance, but at the start of 2023, we opened an exception aiming to better guide investors about 2023 in the context of an unusual weak results for the fourth quarter of 2022. We gave 2 annual guidance SG&A and net income, as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, happily, we delivered on both metrics, even adding more down SG&A, what had not been considering in our guidance at the beginning of 2023. Back in 2022, we also gave the market a medium-term EBT margin guidance from 26% to 32% from 2023 to 2025. We closed 2023 with an EBT margin at 26.8% within our medium-term guidance. We expect to see our annual EBT margin improving on the next couple of years.

    最後我想談談我們的指導。我們更喜歡中期指引而不是年度指引,但在2023 年初,我們開啟了一個例外,旨在在2022 年第四季度業績異常疲軟的背景下,在2023 年左右更好地指導投資者。我們給出了2 個年度指引SG&A 和淨利潤正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣,令人高興的是,我們實現了這兩個指標,甚至還增加了更多的SG&A,這是我們在2023 年初的指導中沒有考慮到的。早在2022 年,我們也給出了市場將2023 年至2025 年的中期EBT 利潤率指引從26% 降至32%。2023 年結束時,我們的EBT 利潤率為26.8%,符合我們的中期指導。我們預計未來幾年我們的年度息稅前利潤率將有所改善。

  • Moving to the next slide. I would like to give you all an update on our strategy tracker for 2023, in line with what we talked about on our Investor Day last December. First, leadership in retail investment by which we aim leadership in our core business. This year, we estimate we have gained approximately 66 bps in market share for individuals. This is yet another sign of client recognition and trust in our service. Yet we have much to do with still less than 12% market share. Also in retail investments, I would like to highlight how we have managed to position ourselves as a premier hub for entrepreneurs by consistently pioneering in our distribution channel efforts to IFAs, consultants, wealth managers, among others.

    轉到下一張投影片。我想向大家介紹我們 2023 年策略追蹤的最新情況,這與我們去年 12 月投資者日討論的內容一致。首先,零售投資領域的領先地位,我們的目標是在核心業務中處於領先地位。今年,我們估計個人市佔率增加了約 66 個基點。這是客戶對我們服務的認可和信任的另一個標誌。然而,我們的市佔率仍不足 12%。同樣在零售投資方面,我想強調一下,我們如何透過不斷開拓面向獨立財務顧問、顧問、財富管理機構等的分銷管道,將自己定位為企業家的首要中心。

  • Second, in relation to our retail cross-sell, which we talked a lot about in our Investor Day, we aim to continuously grow together with our clients' needs, clients adherence to new products and service shows a strong bond of relationship. When we consider everything beyond investments, new verticals plus corporate and SMB ex-investments, we have seen an increase in the represent achievements from 2.6% of our total gross revenue in 2019 to 17.5% in 2023, bringing more resilience to our model. Besides, in 2023, we improved our service specifically in FX and insurance and both are responding with strong growth. During the year, we also had relevant product launch in our platforms like our global account which allows clients to spend and invest internationally, providing them with a seamless experience within the app.

    其次,關於我們在投資者日多次討論的零售交叉銷售,我們的目標是與客戶的需求一起不斷成長,客戶對新產品和服務的堅持表明了牢固的關係紐帶。當我們考慮投資、新垂直產業以及企業和中小企業前投資以外的所有因素時,我們發現代表性成就從2019 年佔總收入的2.6% 增加到2023 年的17.5%,這為我們的模型帶來了更大的彈性。此外,2023 年,我們特別改進了外匯和保險領域的服務,兩者都實現了強勁成長。今年,我們也在我們的平台上推出了相關產品,例如我們的全球帳戶,讓客戶在國際上消費和投資,為他們在應用程式內提供無縫體驗。

  • Third, in Corporate and SMB, I believe we have a unique competitive advantage in wholesale banking due to our sophisticated retail investors' client base and large distribution channel. Because of our singular distribution to the sophisticated clients, we are able to provide corporate and SMBs broader access to capital, creative product structuring and tailored solutions. Although we are still in the very beginning of our wholesale franchisee, I believe this is a large untapped opportunity, which we will continue to focus on the next years.

    第三,在企業和中小企業方面,我相信我們在批發銀行業務方面擁有獨特的競爭優勢,因為我們擁有成熟的散戶投資者客戶群和龐大的分銷管道。由於我們對成熟客戶的獨特分銷,我們能夠為企業和中小企業提供更廣泛的資本獲取、創意產品結構和客製化解決方案。儘管我們仍處於批發特許經營的起步階段,但我相信這是一個巨大的未開發機會,我們將在未來幾年繼續關注。

  • Lastly, central to this pillars is our commitment to a culture of quality and our client focus. We have talked a lot about this on our Investor Day last December, and I strongly believe this is the new true differential we will have in the years to come. Quality isn't just a word for us at XP Inc. It's a commitment to excellence that permeates everything we do. Today, I want to go deeper into what quality means for us and how it shapes our long-term strategy.

    最後,這支柱的核心是我們對品質文化和以客戶為中心的承諾。我們在去年 12 月的投資者日上對此進行了很多討論,我堅信這是我們在未來幾年將擁有的新的真正差異。對 XP Inc 來說,品質不僅僅是一個詞。它是一種對卓越的承諾,滲透到我們所做的每一件事中。今天,我想更深入地探討品質對我們意味著什麼以及它如何塑造我們的長期策略。

  • When we talk about quality, we envision putting our clients at the heart of everything we do. It's about understanding their needs, anticipating their objectives and delivering solutions to exceed their expectations. From that, we organize our value proposition with precision, ensuring that it resonates with the diverse and evolving needs of our clients. But quality doesn't stop at words and promise. It's about tangible results. We believe in delivering concrete outcomes that make a difference in our clients' lives. Take, for example, our strategic initiative to offer a comprehensive financial planning serves rooted in asset allocation discipline.

    當我們談論品質時,我們希望將客戶置於我們所做的一切的核心。這是關於了解他們的需求、預測他們的目標並提供超越他們期望的解決方案。由此,我們精確地組織我們的價值主張,確保它與客戶多樣化且不斷變化的需求產生共鳴。但品質並不僅僅停留在言語和承諾上。這是關於切實的結果。我們相信交付具體成果,改變客戶的生活。舉例來說,我們提供全面財務規劃的策略性舉措植根於資產配置原則。

  • By centralizing asset allocation under a single Chief Investment Officer, or CIO, and tailoring our services to individual needs through financial planning, we aim to ensure that every client receives personalized attention and optimal investment strategies. We have had major success in the past on democratizing access to top-tier investment products to high-income clients. Now we aim bigger. We are democratizing access also to premium services to a broader audience, services that were previously only available to private clients.

    透過將資產配置集中在單一首席投資長(CIO) 的領導下,並透過財務規劃根據個人需求量身定制我們的服務,我們的目標是確保每個客戶都能得到個人化的關注和最佳的投資策略。過去,我們在向高收入客戶提供頂級投資產品的民主化方面取得了重大成功。現在我們的目標更大。我們還將向更廣泛的受眾提供優質服務,這些服務以前僅向私人客戶提供。

  • Moreover, we are committed to maximizing value for both our clients and our shareholders. We recognize that even in the simple act of correction access allocation, there is a large opportunity for revenue generation and increased LTV. This is just one small example of how our dedication to quality translates into tangible benefits for both our clients and our business. In essence, quality isn't just an end goal for XP. It's a mindset that drives us to constantly innovate, improve and surpass our clients' expectations. As we move forward, we will continue to uphold the highest standards of quality in everything we do, because that's what sets us apart and propels us towards sustained success.

    此外,我們致力於為客戶和股東實現價值最大化。我們體認到,即使是簡單的修正接取分配行為,也存在著很大的創收和增加生命週期價值的機會。這只是我們對品質的奉獻如何為我們的客戶和我們的業務轉化為實際利益的一個小例子。從本質上講,品質不僅僅是 XP 的最終目標。這種心態驅使我們不斷創新、改進、超越客戶的期望。在我們前進的過程中,我們將繼續在我們所做的一切事情中堅持最高的品質標準,因為這就是我們與眾不同並推動我們走向持續成功的原因。

  • Now I will hand it over to Bruno so he can discuss this quarter and annual financials. Thank you.

    現在我將把它交給布魯諾,以便他可以討論本季和年度財務狀況。謝謝。

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • Thanks, Maffra. Good evening, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you again.

    謝謝,馬夫拉。各位晚上好。很高興能再次和大家在一起。

  • Moving on to Slide 9. Starting with our gross revenue, on the left part of the slide, this quarter, we had a relatively stable gross revenue quarter-over-quarter at BRL 4.3 billion, despite having roughly 6% less business days than the third quarter. On a year-over-year comparison, we had a 29% gross revenue growth in the fourth quarter '23. When we look at the full year, we posted 12% growth in our total gross revenue. Our strategy to go beyond investments with new verticals and corporate and SMB ex-investments has played an important role sustaining our gross revenue growth as the core retail is still impacted by the macro.

    繼續看投影片 9。從投影片左側的總收入開始,本季我們的總收入相對穩定,為 43 億雷亞爾,儘管工作日比上一季少了大約 6%第三季。與去年同期相比,我們 23 年第四季的總營收成長了 29%。縱觀全年,我們的總收入成長了 12%。由於核心零售仍受到宏觀經濟的影響,我們超越新垂直領域投資以及企業和中小企業前投資的策略在維持我們的總收入成長方面發揮了重要作用。

  • Looking to the right side of the slide, in terms of revenue mix between segments, we maintain a relatively stable mix quarter-over-quarter, while year-over-year, we can notice an increment in retail revenue relevance, mainly due to new verticals growth as we are going to see in the next slide.

    看幻燈片的右側,就細分市場之間的收入組合而言,我們季度環比保持相對穩定的組合,而同比我們可以注意到零售收入相關性的增加,這主要是由於新的收入我們將在下一張投影片中看到垂直增長。

  • Before we deep dive in new verticals, it is important to highlight that in this slide, we are only looking at the 4 new verticals we currently disclose, which are retirement plans, cards, credit and insurance, not including FX, digital accounts and global investments as presented in the Investor Day. So new verticals continue to perform in the fourth quarter, reaching a total gross revenue of BRL 491 million, plus 21% year-over-year and plus 11% quarter-over-quarter. The main highlights of the quarter were cards and insurance. Cards reached BRL 306 million, plus 18% quarter-over-quarter and plus 30% year-over-year. And insurance reached BRL 46 million, plus 28% quarter-over-quarter and plus 48% year-over-year. As you know, the fourth quarter has a positive seasonality to cards activity due to the holiday season.

    在我們深入研究新的垂直領域之前,需要強調的是,在這張幻燈片中,我們只關注我們目前披露的4 個新垂直領域,即退休計劃、信用卡、信貸和保險,不包括外匯、數字帳戶和全球投資者日中介紹的投資。因此,新垂直產業在第四季繼續表現出色,總收入達到 4.91 億雷亞爾,年增 21%,環比成長 11%。本季度的主要亮點是信用卡和保險。卡銷量達 3.06 億雷亞爾,季增 18%,年增 30%。保險收入達到 4,600 萬雷亞爾,季增 28%,年增 48%。如您所知,由於假期,第四季度的信用卡活動具有積極的季節性。

  • On the right side of the slide, when we look at the full year of 2023, new verticals revenue reached BRL 1.7 billion, a growth of 43% year-over-year. And if we add the other new verticals: FX, digital account, global investments and corporate and SMB ex-investments, in line with our presentation in the Investor Day, the total gross revenue sum up to BRL 2.7 billion in 2023, enhancing our diversification and cross-sell capabilities.

    在幻燈片右側,當我們查看 2023 年全年時,新垂直行業收入達到 17 億雷亞爾,年增 43%。如果我們增加其他新的垂直領域:外匯、數位帳戶、全球投資以及企業和中小企業前投資,根據我們在投資者日的介紹,2023 年總收入將達到27 億雷亞爾,從而增強我們的多元化和交叉銷售能力。

  • Now let's look on the next slide at our core retail revenue and its potential as the macro improves. Retail revenue reached its all-time high in 2023 at BRL 11.791 billion, helped by new verticals, which grew 3x from 2021, but core retail revenue, which grew 9% year-over-year, reaching BRL 8.073 billion in 2023. This is still 3% lower than the peak of 2021, despite a bigger ecosystem. It is important that we acknowledge the high operating leverage potential, a business like ours has at our core. Equities, fixed income and funds, they all should benefit in a scenario of risk owned, which eventually will happen considering it is cyclical. And then the high operating leverage of our unique ecosystem should kick in.

    現在讓我們來看看下一張投影片,了解我們的核心零售收入及其隨著宏觀經濟改善而產生的潛力。由於新垂直產業的幫助,零售收入在2023 年達到歷史新高,達到117.91 億雷亞爾,較2021 年增長了3 倍,但核心零售收入年增9%,在2023 年達到80.73 億雷亞爾。儘管生態系統更大,但仍比 2021 年的峰值低 3%。重要的是,我們承認像我們這樣的企業擁有高營運槓桿潛力,這是我們的核心。股票、固定收益和基金,它們都應該在擁有風險的情況下受益,考慮到它是週期性的,這最終會發生。然後我們獨特的生態系統的高營運槓桿應該開始發揮作用。

  • On the right side of the slide, we brought some data to help envisioning this operating leverage. Even in a tough environment for our core in the last couple of years, we were able to grow our core retail client assets by more than 40% in this period, but the take rate suffered, reducing from 1.5% to 1% in the same period. If we take these 50 bps difference in take rate and apply to today's client assets, just as a math exercise, we would have more than BRL 4 billion in additional revenue. XP's ecosystem gives us a unique position in terms of operating leverage in a bull market for investments. Our market share in retail traded volumes on B3, for example, of 48% is 4x larger than our closest competitor. So in summary, we believe XP is well positioned to benefit from the next positive cycle for investments whenever it comes.

    在投影片的右側,我們提供了一些數據來幫助設想這種營運槓桿。即使過去幾年我們的核心業務面臨嚴峻的環境,我們的核心零售客戶資產在此期間仍增長了 40% 以上,但採用率卻受到了影響,從 1.5% 降至 1%。句點。如果我們將這 50 個基點的獲取率差異應用於當今的客戶資產,就像數學練習一樣,我們將獲得超過 40 億雷亞爾的額外收入。 XP 的生態系統使我們在投資多頭市場中的營運槓桿方面擁有獨特的地位。例如,我們在 B3 零售交易量中的市佔率為 48%,是我們最接近的競爭對手的 4 倍。總而言之,我們相信 XP 處於有利位置,無論何時到來,都能從下一個積極的投資週期中受益。

  • Now moving to Slide 12. Corporate and Issuer Services presented another solid quarter with revenue of BRL 508 million, plus 85% year-over-year and a slightly decrease of 2% quarter-over-quarter, which had a tough comp considering corporate results in the third quarter '23. As we anticipated in last quarter's conference call, the third quarter was the peak for corporate revenue due to increased derivative demand related to DCM activity in the period. But the fourth quarter '23 was the second best quarter for corporate revenues, reaching BRL 177 million, 10% lower quarter-over-quarter, but 31% higher year-over-year.

    現在轉到投影片12。企業和發行人服務部門再次呈現穩健的季度業績,營收為5.08 億雷亞爾,同比增長85%,環比小幅下降2%,考慮到企業業績,這一季度的業績比較嚴峻在第三季'23。正如我們在上個季度電話會議中所預期的那樣,由於第三季與 DCM 活動相關的衍生性商品需求增加,第三季是企業收入的高峰。但 23 年第四季是企業營收第二好的季度,達到 1.77 億雷亞爾,季減 10%,但年增 31%。

  • The main highlight here in fourth quarter '23 was the all-time high issuer services revenue at BRL 330 million, a growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter and 136% year-over-year, boosted by the evolution of our franchise in investment banking with M&A as the main contributor for the growth. These positive numbers are a result of a complete range of products and continue to show the benefits of the increased diversification of our business model, translating on a 22% growth in 2023 compared to 2022.

    23 年第四季的主要亮點是發行人服務收入創歷史新高,達到 3.3 億雷亞爾,環比增長 3%,同比增長 136%,這得益於我們在以併購為增長主要貢獻者的投資銀行業務。這些積極的數字是全系列產品的結果,並繼續展示了我們業務模式日益多樣化的好處,即 2023 年與 2022 年相比增長了 22%。

  • On Slide 13, our SG&A expenses continue to be under control as cost discipline is a priority for us. SG&A, excluding revenue from incentives, totaled BRL 1.5 billion, 2% lower quarter-over-quarter and 10% higher year-over-year, considering we didn't have more down in fourth quarter '22. Looking at the full year, our SG&A was BRL 5.3 billion in 2023 compared to BRL 5.6 billion in 2022, a result of strict cost control with our efficiency ratios improving substantially year-over-year as we are going to see in a while on the following slide. Those numbers consider a one-off adjustment of BRL 44 million write-offs in the fourth quarter due to an impairment related to the termination of XTAGE and one investment asset.

    在幻燈片 13 中,我們的 SG&A 費用繼續受到控制,因為成本控制是我們的首要任務。考慮到 2022 年第四季我們沒有更多的下降,SG&A(不包括激勵收入)總計 15 億雷亞爾,環比下降 2%,同比增長 10%。綜觀全年,我們2023 年的SG&A 為53 億雷亞爾,而2022 年為56 億雷亞爾,這是嚴格成本控制的結果,我們的效率比率逐年大幅提高,我們將在一段時間內看到下面的幻燈片。這些數字考慮了第四季度由於 XTAGE 和一項投資資產終止相關的減值而進行的 4,400 萬雷亞爾註銷的一次性調整。

  • One year ago, when we first gave our SG&A guidance between BRL 5 billion and BRL 5.5 billion, Modal was not being considered. Even after including Modal in our numbers, we were able to deliver the BRL 5.3 billion within the range. If we exclude Modal, we would be closer to the bottom of the guidance. For 2024, cost discipline continues to be one of our top priorities within the company, as Maffra mentioned in his letter.

    一年前,當我們首次給出 SG&A 指引值在 50 億雷亞爾至 55 億雷亞爾之間時,莫代爾並未被考慮在內。即使將莫代爾納入我們的數字中,我們仍能夠在該範圍內交付 53 億雷亞爾。如果我們排除莫代爾,我們將更接近指引的底部。正如 Maffra 在信中提到的,到 2024 年,成本紀律仍然是我們公司的首要任務之一。

  • Now let's look at our efficiency ratios on the next slide. Efficiency ratio is at its all-time low since IPO, reaching 36.3% in fourth quarter '23 or 36% if you adjust for the one-off event of the quarter. Compensation ratio decreased once again from 25.7% to 25.1% quarter-over-quarter, the lowest level in 13 quarters sequentially. Our cost control discipline has played an important role in our operating margin, which we are going to talk on the next slide.

    現在讓我們來看看下一張投影片上的效率比。效率比率處於 IPO 以來的歷史最低點,23 年第四季達到 36.3%,如果對本季的一次性事件進行調整,則為 36%。薪資比率再次從 25.7% 環比下降至 25.1%,為 13 個季度以來的最低水準。我們的成本控制紀律在我們的營業利潤率中發揮了重要作用,我們將在下一張投影片中討論這一點。

  • Moving to EBT. Adjusting for the one-off event, this quarter's EBT was BRL 1.039 billion, down 10% quarter-over-quarter and up 41% year-over-year. Also, considering the adjustments, EBT margin was 25.7%, plus 245 bps year-over-year and minus 233 bps quarter-over-quarter. Revenue mix was the main driver for quarter-over-quarter margins decreased, impacting COGS and our gross margin, which decreased from 70.1% in third quarter '23 to 68.1% in fourth quarter '23. When we look at the full year with adjustments, EBT totaled BRL 3.98 billion, up 16% year-over-year with an EBT margin of 26.8%, up approximately 100 bps year-over-year.

    轉向 EBT。經一次性事件調整後,本季息稅前利潤為 10.39 億雷亞爾,季減 10%,年增 41%。此外,考慮到調整後,EBT 利潤率為 25.7%,較去年同期增加 245 個基點,較上季減少 233 個基點。收入組合是季度利潤率下降的主要驅動因素,影響了銷貨成本和毛利率,毛利率從 23 年第三季的 70.1% 下降到 23 年第四季的 68.1%。當我們考慮調整後的全年情況時,EBT 總額為 39.8 億雷亞爾,年增 16%,EBT 利潤率為 26.8%,較去年同期成長約 100 個基點。

  • On Slide 16, our net income for the fourth quarter '23, considering plus BRL 31 million from the one-off event, totaled BRL 1.071 billion, down 1% quarter-over-quarter and up 37% year-over-year. Net margin was 26.5%, up 18 bps quarter-over-quarter and up 184 bps year-over-year.

    在投影片 16 上,我們 23 年第四季的淨利潤,加上一次性活動帶來的 3,100 萬雷亞爾,總計為 10.71 億雷亞爾,環比下降 1%,年成長 37%。淨利率為 26.5%,季增 18 個基點,年增 184 個基點。

  • Looking at the annual metrics, on the right side of the slide, net income increased 10% year-over-year to BRL 3.9 billion in 2023, with net margin slightly decreasing 38 bps year-over-year to 26.4%. In 2023, we've continued distributing capital to shareholders, returning BRL 4.5 billion in buybacks and dividends, representing a payout ratio of 114% for the year. We kept a solid and comfortable balance sheet with our managerial this ratio ending the year around 20%, impacted by the dividend distribution on fourth quarter '23 and Modal acquisition.

    從年度指標來看,投影片右側的淨利潤年增 10%,至 2023 年 39 億雷亞爾,淨利潤率較去年同期下降 38 個基點至 26.4%。 2023年,我們繼續向股東分配資本,以回購和股利方式返還45億雷亞爾,全年派息率為114%。受 23 年第四季股息分配和 Modal 收購的影響,我們的管理層保持了穩健的資產負債表,到年底這一比率約為 20%。

  • We also announced a new buy-back program of 2.5 million shares, which aims to neutralize 2024 shareholder dilution due to the vesting of share-based compensation from the company's long-term incentive plan. We expect to return more capital to shareholders throughout the year in line with our intention to reduce our managerial lease ratio between 16% and 19% over the next years.

    我們還宣布了一項新的 250 萬股回購計劃,旨在抵消由於公司長期激勵計劃中的股權激勵歸屬而導致的 2024 年股東稀釋。我們預計全年將向股東返還更多資本,以符合我們在未來幾年將管理租賃率降低至 16% 至 19% 的目標。

  • Finally, on my last slide, I talk about a metric which has become more relevant to us since the IPO and the growth of our bank. Return on equity or return on tangible equity. We believe the return on tangible equity is even a better metric than accounting return on equity. But we look at both. Why return on tangible equity is important in our case, especially if you want to compare XP with Brazilian peers. First, we believe a metric closer to our marginal return on equity or closer to our return on capital employed, which, by the way, we used to decide how to allocate capital.

    最後,在我的最後一張投影片中,我談到了自首次公開募股和我們銀行的發展以來與我們更加相關的指標。股本回報率或有形股本回報率。我們認為,有形股本回報率甚至是比會計股本回報率更好的指標。但我們兩者都看。為什麼有形資產回報率在我們的案例中很重要,特別是如果您想將 XP 與巴西同行進行比較。首先,我們相信一個更接近我們的邊際股本回報率或更接近我們的所用資本回報率的指標,順便說一句,我們用來決定如何分配資本。

  • Second, return on tangible equity excludes intangibles and goodwill, which makes it a metric more comparable to Brazilian GAAP, which amortize goodwill differently than IFRS. Return on tangible equity has slightly decreased quarter-over-quarter by 19 bps to 25.6%, while increasing 570 bps year-over-year from 19.9% in fourth quarter '22. Annual return on tangible equity slightly decreased by 21 bps to 25%. Important to remind that this return on tangible equity at 25% has been achieved in an environment where our core has not benefited from the operating leverage, which our ecosystem provides, highlighting the resilience and sustainability of our business model independent on where we are in the cycle. When we get the positive part of the cycle for investments, we expect to see our operating leverage kicking in and benefiting our return on tangible equity as well.

    其次,有形股本回報率不包括無形資產和商譽,這使其成為與巴西公認會計原則更具可比性的指標,而巴西公認會計原則的商譽攤銷方式與國際財務報告準則不同。有形股本回報率較去年同期略有下降 19 個基點至 25.6%,而較去年同期從 2022 年第四季的 19.9% 上升 570 個基點。年有形股本回報率小幅下降 21 個基點至 25%。需要提醒的是,25% 的有形股本回報率是在我們的核心業務並未從我們的生態系統提供的營運槓桿中受益的環境中實現的,這突顯了我們業務模式的彈性和可持續性,與我們所處的位置無關。循環。當我們獲得投資週期的積極部分時,我們預計我們的營運槓桿將會發揮作用,並有利於我們的有形股本回報。

  • Now I will hand over to Maffra for his final remarks.

    現在請馬夫拉作最後發言。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • Thanks, Bruno. For my final remarks, I would like to summarize my priorities for this year. First, our people and culture. Our success is linked to the dedication and talent of our team. In 2024, we will keep our focus on nurturing our culture of excellence and innovation.

    謝謝,布魯諾。在我的最後發言中,我想總結今年的優先事項。首先,我們的人民和文化。我們的成功與團隊的奉獻和才華息息相關。 2024年,我們將繼續專注於培養卓越和創新的文化。

  • Second, cost discipline. For 2024, we will maintain the strict cost control and efficiency initiatives that we did company-wide during 2023, as this continues to be one of our top priorities.

    第二,成本紀律。 2024 年,我們將維持 2023 年在全公司範圍內實施的嚴格成本控制和效率舉措,因為這仍然是我們的首要任務之一。

  • Third, our focus on what we believe is the new true differential quality by democratizing access to premium services which were previously available only to private clients. We are breaking down barriers and creating a more inclusive financial ecosystem repeating what we did before product offering. As a result, we expect higher LTV.

    第三,我們將重點放在我們認為的新的真正的差異化品質上,即透過民主化以前僅向私人客戶提供的優質服務。我們正在打破障礙,創造一個更具包容性的金融生態系統,重複我們在提供產品之前所做的事情。因此,我們預期生命週期價值會更高。

  • Fourth, this year, we continue to focus on increasing penetration and principality of our new products. New verticals should continue to grow strongly, further diversifying our revenues and strengthening our business model.

    第四,今年我們持續專注於提高新產品的滲透率和權威性。新的垂直產業應繼續強勁成長,進一步實現我們的收入多元化並加強我們的業務模式。

  • Lastly, this year, we intend to extend our product suite available to our wholesale clients. Throughout the year, we will roll out our digital bank account for Corporate and SMB clients to further improve their experience with our ecosystem.

    最後,今年,我們打算將我們的產品套件擴展到我們的批發客戶。在這一年中,我們將為企業和中小企業客戶推出數位銀行帳戶,以進一步改善他們對我們生態系統的體驗。

  • Now both Bruno and I will be happy to take your questions.

    現在布魯諾和我很樂意回答你的問題。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • So now we're going to start our Q&A session. The first one is going to be Thiago Batista from UBS.

    現在我們要開始問答環節了。第一個是瑞銀集團的蒂亞戈·巴蒂斯塔。

  • Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

    Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

  • I have one question about the potential improvement in the net new money. When we look -- in the last -- a couple of weeks ago, we saw a change in regulation in Brazil with the taxes instruments like the CRI, CRA, LIG, et cetera, become much more tougher to be issued. Can you comment on the possible impact of this change for XP? And also the federal government paid about BRL 90 billion -- 90-odd billion of precatórios in the last couple of weeks. Have you saw any positive impact? Or do you believe those precatórios will have any positive impact on the net new money of XP?

    我有一個關於淨新資金的潛在改善的問題。當我們回顧幾週前的情況時,我們看到巴西的監管發生了變化,CRI、CRA、LIG 等稅收工具的發行變得更加困難。您能否評論一下此變更對 XP 可能產生的影響?聯邦政府在過去幾週內也支付了約 900 億雷亞爾——90 多億的預付款。您看到任何正面影響了嗎?或者您認為這些預兆會對 XP 淨新增資金產生正面影響嗎?

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • This is Thiago. Thank you for your question. When we talk about the new regulation, we see as positive when you look the long term because you guys saw what happened in the past 2 years, mainly in the past year, the banks raised almost BRL 1 billion -- BRL 1 trillion in taxes and products. So today, we have about 1/3 of the whole AUC in this type of product. So of course, for the long term, as they have like to renew these products to issue new bank products, it's going to be harder for them, but we don't expect like to have a big impact on the short term, okay? So that's one side.

    這是蒂亞戈。謝謝你的問題。當我們談論新法規時,從長遠來看,我們認為這是積極的,因為你們看到了過去兩年,主要是過去一年發生的事情,銀行籌集了近10 億雷亞爾- 1 萬億雷亞爾的稅收和產品。所以今天,我們大約有整個 AUC 的 1/3 屬於這類產品。當然,從長遠來看,由於他們想要更新這些產品以發行新的銀行產品,這對他們來說會更困難,但我們預計這不會對短期產生重大影響,好嗎?這是一方面。

  • The second side is when you look the secondary market for fixed income, you guys saw the -- what happened with the spreads in the past 2 months, okay? So we saw an increased level of activity on the secondary market on the tax exempt fixed income, so -- and the spreads they closed. So that's also positive for us. So I would say that's positive, but it's not a big change on the short term. So that's my view, okay.

    第二個面向是,當你在二級市場尋找固定收益時,你們會看到──過去兩個月的利差發生了什麼,好嗎?因此,我們看到二級市場上免稅固定收益的活動增加,因此 - 以及他們關閉的利差。所以這對我們來說也是正面的。所以我想說這是正面的,但短期內這並不是一個大的改變。這就是我的觀點,好吧。

  • And talking about the precatórios, it's hard to say. It's a big chunk of money, okay? But it's not that related to the individual investors. When you look, we saw more impact mainly on the funds. We saw a lot of the funds receiving cash from this payment. So we believe we can see some of these structured funds with good returns for individual clients on the short term, okay? So it might be positive because, as you know, when investors see the return is increasing, they start to like to invest more on this type of product. So can be positive, but I don't see a big, big change also on that new money on the short term.

    說到預兆,很難說。這是一大筆錢,好嗎?但這與個人投資人關係不大。當你觀察時,我們發現更多的影響主要集中在基金上。我們看到很多資金從這筆付款中收到了現金。因此,我們相信我們可以看到其中一些結構性基金在短期內為個人客戶帶來良好的回報,好嗎?所以這可能是積極的,因為正如你所知,當投資者看到回報增加時,他們開始喜歡在此類產品上進行更多投資。所以可能是正面的,但我認為短期內新資金不會有很大的變化。

  • Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

    Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks

  • Can I do more follow-up. You mentioned in the slides that you booked BRL 44 million of one-off expenses. Only to double check. The earnings of BRL 1.040 billion, this was not adjusted by these one-off expenses.

    我可以做更多跟進嗎?您在幻燈片中提到您預訂了 4400 萬雷亞爾的一次性費用。只是要仔細檢查。收益為 10.4 億雷亞爾,這並沒有根據這些一次性費用進行調整。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • No. It's not adjacent.

    不,它不相鄰。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

    下一位是摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯。

  • Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

  • I have a question regarding our results on the COGS line. It was a little bit heavy this quarter. You mentioned in the release IFAs, commissions and higher provisions for credit cards. So if you can explore a little bit what drove it. It was more the commissions. It was more the credit card. And if we should see a normalization of this line for the coming quarters. That's my first one. And then I can do a follow-up. Thank you.

    我對 COGS 線上的結果有疑問。這個季度有點沉重。您在新聞稿中提到了 IFA、佣金和信用卡的更高條款。所以如果你能稍微探索一下是什麼推動了它。更多的是佣金。更多的是信用卡。如果我們應該在未來幾季看到這條線的正常化。這是我的第一個。然後我可以做後續工作。謝謝。

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • This is Bruno. I'm going to take that one. The first and biggest impact in terms of the COGS was due to mix, revenue mix in the third quarter, the quarter that we had our highest gross margin in the year. We had part of the revenue with less commissions in the fourth quarter, I would say that kind of normalized because if you look at the gross margin throughout the whole year, which is a better time frame to look at the margins. We do have volatility between quarters, it was 68% all over the year. The gross margin of the fourth quarter was 68.1%. So in line with the margin for the year. So that's the main impact. But we did have, in the fourth quarter, some outliers, I would say, specifically in terms of provisions that we did because of a credit portfolio that came from Modal, nothing big, but in terms of the expected credit loss, it had an impact roughly about BRL 30 million that we do not expect to see going forward.

    這是布魯諾。我要拿那個。就銷貨成本而言,第一個也是最大的影響是由於第三季的收入組合,這是我們今年毛利率最高的季度。我們第四季的部分收入佣金較少,我想說這是正常化的,因為如果你看看全年的毛利率,這是一個更好的時間框架來看看利潤率。我們確實存在季度之間的波動,全年波動率為 68%。第四季毛利率為68.1%。因此與本年度的利潤率一致。這就是主要影響。但我想說,在第四季度,我們確實有一些異常值,特別是在我們因來自莫代爾的信貸投資組合而所做的準備金方面,沒什麼大不了的,但就預期信貸損失而言,它有一個我們預計未來不會產生約 3000 萬雷亞爾的影響。

  • To talk about normalization, again, is hard because we do have the largest part of our COGS is commissions, and it's related to the mix of the specific quarter.

    再說一次,談論正常化是很困難的,因為我們的銷貨成本中最大的一部分確實是佣金,而且它與特定季度的組合有關。

  • Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst

  • If I may, still on the cost side, but now on financial expenses. It was a bit higher this quarter, and I was checking our gross debt, it was mostly stable around BRL 9.5 billion. For sure, we don't know like the inter-quarter. So just checking if there is anything different on your financial expenses line this quarter. And again, where this should evolve going forward?

    如果可以的話,仍然是在成本方面,但現在是在財務費用方面。這個季度有點高,我檢查了我們的總債務,基本上穩定在 95 億雷亞爾左右。當然,我們不知道季度間的情況。因此,只需檢查本季您的財務費用行是否有任何不同。再說一遍,未來該往何處發展?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I mean we had in the fourth quarter, there is a line, there is a very cheap line that we have through the Banamex, the Mexican bonds that we carry, and we use them to finance around BRL 2 billion roughly and we were waiting to renew that line. So if you look at previous quarter, you're going to see that part of the debt was reduced in the previous quarter and went up again in the fourth quarter. That's the main explanation for interest rates, interest expenses going up in the quarter.

    我的意思是,我們在第四季度有一條線,有一條非常便宜的線,我們透過Banamex 擁有一條非常便宜的線,我們持有墨西哥債券,我們用它們來融資大約20 億雷亞爾,我們正在等待更新該行。因此,如果你看一下上一季度,你會發現部分債務在上一季減少了,但在第四季再次上升。這是本季利率和利息支出上升的主要原因。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • So next one is Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

    下一位是來自匯豐銀行的 Neha Agarwala。

  • Neha Agarwala - Analyst, LatAm Financials

    Neha Agarwala - Analyst, LatAm Financials

  • Just wanted to quickly understand how do you see 2024 evolving? What levers do you have in terms of -- on the revenue side, on the cost side, because you've done most of the cost management in 2023. So what would be the drivers for 2024 profitability? Will it be more on the revenue side or more on the cost side? Because net new money, as you mentioned in your last answer that will probably be on the weaker side in the very near term. So any trends of how 2024 should be evolving will be very helpful.

    只是想快速了解您如何看待 2024 年的發展?在收入方面、成本方面,您有哪些槓桿,因為您已經在 2023 年完成了大部分成本管理。那麼 2024 年獲利能力的驅動因素是什麼?是收入方面更多還是成本方面更多?因為淨新資金,正如您在上一個答案中提到的,在短期內可能會處於弱勢。因此,關於 2024 年如何發展的任何趨勢都將非常有幫助。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • About revenue, as we mentioned in the presentation, we don't have a guidance for revenue or margins, okay? We gave last year more reference because what we just explained about the results of the fourth quarter. So we don't have a revenue guidance for this year. So -- but about costs, as we already mentioned in previous calls and meetings, I would say that the last 2 quarters, they are a good reference of the level of SG&A for 2024. But again, as we already mentioned, we have very strong cost discipline that's still in place on the company. So we expect to keep gaining efficiency throughout the year here.

    關於收入,正如我們在演示中提到的,我們沒有收入或利潤率的指導,好嗎?我們去年提供了更多參考,因為我們剛剛解釋了第四季度的業績。因此,我們今年沒有收入指引。所以,但關於成本,正如我們在之前的電話和會議中已經提到的那樣,我想說,過去兩個季度,它們是2024 年SG&A 水平的一個很好的參考。但同樣,正如我們已經提到的,我們非常公司仍然實行嚴格的成本紀律。因此,我們希望全年都能持續提高效率。

  • Neha Agarwala - Analyst, LatAm Financials

    Neha Agarwala - Analyst, LatAm Financials

  • If I can just follow up quickly. Going forward in '24, is there a mix in terms of capital distributions that we should expect between buybacks and dividends?

    如果我能快速跟進就好了。展望 24 年,我們應該預期回購和股利之間的資本分配是否會混合?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I can take that one. No, we have not decided yet. What we have just announced is a buyback of 2.5 million shares approved by our Board in order to neutralize the dilution expected for this year due to our long-term plan for our partners in our partnership model. So that's something that we want to continue to do to avoid dilution of shareholders. And as I mentioned in my part of the presentation, you can expect more capital to be returned to shareholders throughout the year. We keep generating cash. We have underleveraged, I would say, balance sheet with capacity leverage. If we want, we do carry excess capital. So all the conditions for us to continue distributing capital to shareholders are in place, and we are going to do it. But we have not decided when and how much and if it's going to be buyback or dividends, whenever we do, we are going to announce to the market.

    我可以接受那個。不,我們還沒決定。我們剛剛宣布,董事會批准回購 250 萬股股票,以抵消由於我們對合作夥伴的長期計劃而導致的今年預期的股權稀釋。因此,我們希望繼續這樣做,以避免股東稀釋。正如我在演講部分提到的,您可以預期全年將有更多資本回饋給股東。我們不斷產生現金。我想說的是,我們的資產負債表和產能槓桿槓桿不足。如果我們願意,我們確實可以持有多餘的資本。因此,我們繼續向股東分配資本的所有條件都已具備,我們將這樣做。但我們還沒有決定何時、多少以及是否回購或分紅,無論什麼時候,我們都會向市場宣布。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Mario Pierry from Bank of America.

    下一位是美國銀行的馬裡奧·皮耶里。

  • Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

    Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

  • My question, let me ask you if you can give us any color on net new money so far in the year, if you can separate that between inflows and outflows? Because I do think you have made comments in the past that inflows remain very high but outflows had also increased. And then related to that question is, when we look at your AUC, it grew 19% year-on-year. But if I take inflows out, your AUC grew only 7%, so which is significantly lower than CDI. So I was wondering how do you see the performance of your clients' portfolios? How can that improve? Is that something that you think could be hurting some of the inflows that you're seeing?

    我的問題是,您是否可以給我們今年迄今為止淨新增資金的任何顏色,是否可以將流入和流出分開?因為我確實認為您過去曾評論過,資金流入仍然很高,但資金流出也有所增加。與這個問題相關的是,當我們查看你們的 AUC 時,它比去年同期增長了 19%。但如果我剔除流入,你的 AUC 僅成長 7%,因此明顯低於 CDI。所以我想知道您如何看待客戶投資組合的表現?怎樣才能改善呢?您認為這可能會損害您所看到的一些資金流入嗎?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • Regarding the explanation about gross inflows and outflows, honestly it hasn't changed that much about what I've already said in the past. So basically -- and we monitor that on almost on a daily basis. When we look at the core, the engine of XP being affluent clients, B2B, B2C outflows and compared to the client assets, the percentage of outflows is pretty much stable over, I would say, the past 7, 8 quarters. So it has not changed, okay? And the inflows overall, they have increased in 2023 compared to 2022. What has hurt the net new money more is the outflows from companies, corporate, it's really volatile. But remember that we do have in retail SMBs and corporate clients that have an annual revenue below the threshold of BRL 700 million and also the private, but not the engine. So that scenario has not changed, and we haven't seen any big change compared to the past quarter.

    關於總流入和總流出的解釋,老實說,它與我過去所說的沒有太大變化。基本上,我們幾乎每天都會對其進行監控。當我們看待核心時,XP的引擎是富裕的客戶、B2B、B2C流出,與客戶資產相比,流出的百分比在過去的7、8個季度中相當穩定。所以它沒有改變,好嗎?整體而言,與 2022 年相比,2023 年的流入量有所增加。對淨新資金影響更大的是公司、企業的流出,這確實很不穩定。但請記住,我們確實有年收入低於 7 億雷亞爾門檻的零售中小型企業和企業客戶,也有私人客戶,但不是引擎客戶。因此,這種情況沒有改變,與上個季度相比,我們沒有看到任何重大變化。

  • Regarding the remuneration of our clients and the growth of market appreciation, you need to remember that our portfolio overall, on average, when you look at our portfolio and total client assets more diversified. And to be more diversified, it means that you're going to own more equities, you're going to own more move-to-market funds, alternatives and so on. In the past year has been tough for all those asset classes, as you probably know. And most of the funds and someone they are below the SELIC rate, for example. So on average, yes, the portfolio has not performed well, but we do not see that impacting outflows. We have the advisers, the clients are aware of the portfolio. You need to have a longer time horizon in the long term, it should pay off to have this type of portfolio diversification.

    關於我們客戶的報酬和市場升值的成長,您需要記住,當您查看我們的投資組合和客戶總資產時,平均而言,我們的投資組合整體更加多元化。為了更多元化,這意味著你將擁有更多的股票,你將擁有更多的上市基金、另類投資等等。正如您可能知道的那樣,過去的一年對於所有這些資產類別來說都是艱難的一年。例如,大多數基金和某些人的利率都低於 SELIC。因此,平均而言,投資組合表現不佳,但我們認為這不會影響資金流出。我們有顧問,客戶也了解我們的投資組合。從長遠來看,你需要有更長的時間範圍,這種類型的投資組合多元化應該會有所回報。

  • Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

    Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

  • Have you done any exercise where you monitor how well portfolio client -- portfolios are doing in other platforms? Do you think the performance from your clients has been worse or not? Or is this something right -- is there room for you to improve -- because again, like -- I think, was up like 20-plus percent last year. Sure, the book of the performance came in the second half of the year. But I'm just wondering if you think there's something else you can do, like, I don't know, training IFAs or getting more involved in client portfolios.

    您是否做過任何監控投資組合客戶——投資組合在其他平台上的表現的練習?您認為您的客戶的表現是否更差?或者這是對的嗎?你有改進的空間嗎?因為,我想,去年的成長率是 20% 以上。當然,表演書是在下半年問世的。但我只是想知道您是否認為還有其他事情可以做,例如,我不知道,培訓 IFA 或更多地參與客戶投資組合。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • This is Thiago. There is 1 slide in the presentation and I mentioned, we have a very strong focus on quality and that means for investments being the best financial planning service provider in Brazil. So we have been doing in the past, I would say, 1.5 years a lot of change here in the company, very focused on having the best service to our clients. It's not only about like having the best portfolios, but goes beyond that, like tax planning, section and all the other stuff that usually only private clients have. So we have been scaling that training, all the IFAs and internal advisers. So we have been doing chains here.

    這是蒂亞戈。簡報中有一張投影片,我提到,我們非常注重質量,這意味著投資成為巴西最好的財務規劃服務提供者。所以我想說,在過去 1.5 年裡,我們公司一直在做很多改變,非常專注於為我們的客戶提供最好的服務。這不僅是擁有最好的投資組合,而且還不止於此,例如稅務規劃、部門和通常只有私人客戶擁有的所有其他東西。因此,我們一直在擴大培訓範圍,包括所有 IFA 和內部顧問。所以我們一直在這裡做連鎖。

  • Today, we have a new segmentation in the company. We have a new -- not a new CIO, but we have -- we took the CIO from the private banking and now he manages all the segments in the companies, all the locations. So we have changed incentives to our internal advisers, we have changed some of the incentives for the IFAs. So we have been doing a lot of things like to have them to follow the correct allocation for all the clients. So yes, we have been doing a lot of stuff on that.

    今天,我們公司有了新的細分。我們有一個新的——不是新的首席資訊官,但我們有——我們從私人銀行業務中調任了首席資訊官,現在他管理公司的所有部門、所有地點。因此,我們改變了對內部顧問的激勵措施,我們改變了對獨立財務顧問的一些激勵措施。因此,我們做了很多事情,例如讓他們遵循所有客戶的正確分配。所以,是的,我們在這方面做了很多事情。

  • To your point about how it's compared to other companies, I would say that the easiest way to compare because it's easy to get is if you compare the exclusive funds. If you look the funds that we manage here through (inaudible) asset we have been doing, I would say, good compare like to other players. You can compare all the private banks and we have been doing okay, bad -- not very good against the SELIC rate, as Bruno mentioned, but okay or good when you compare to other portfolio managers for exclusive funds. So that's very easy to check.

    對於您關於與其他公司相比如何的觀點,我想說最簡單的比較方法是比較獨家基金,因為它很容易獲得。如果你看看我們透過(聽不清楚)資產管理的資金,我們一直在做,我會說,與其他參與者相比,效果很好。你可以比較所有的私人銀行,我們的表現一直不錯,也可以很差——正如布魯諾提到的那樣,與SELIC 利率相比,我們的表現不是很好,但當你與其他專屬基金的投資組合經理相比時,我們的表現還是不錯或好。所以這很容易檢查。

  • Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

    Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research

  • And just final question. On the NPS score, right, you used to show that. I don't know if I missed it, but like are you seeing your NPS scores relatively stable?

    最後一個問題。在 NPS 分數上,對吧,你曾經證明過這一點。我不知道我是否錯過了它,但你是否看到你的 NPS 分數相對穩定?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • Yes, was pretty much stable, I believe, it's 72 in the fourth quarter, Mario.

    是的,相當穩定,我相信,第四節是 72,馬裡奧。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

    下一位是來自高盛的蒂托·拉巴塔(Tito Labarta)。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • I guess a bit of a follow-up here on the efficiency and margins. Maffra, you mentioned you continue to focus on efficiency and you have operating leverage. But how dependent is that operating leverage on sort of cyclical environment getting better? I mean, I understand the cyclicality of the business. But I mean you mentioned that the second half of the year expense is sort of a good base to think about. I mean just annualizing 4Q expenses that would imply your expenses have been going to grow roughly 15%, right? So to have some operating leverage with that, you need revenues to grow faster. So how do you just think about that potential improvements in EBT margin to get to the guide, the longer-term guidance that you've given? Should that be sort of linear improvements? Is it very dependent on rates coming down, things improving? Just to understand -- and particularly in this quarter, the margin was a bit lower, I know there were some one-offs. Is there just some seasonality in 4Q because 4Q last year, EBT margin is also a bit lower. So just to think about how those margins improve from here?

    我想這裡有一些關於效率和利潤的後續行動。 Maffra,您提到您將繼續專注於效率並且擁有營運槓桿。但營運槓桿對週期性環境改善的依賴程度如何?我的意思是,我了解業務的周期性。但我的意思是你提到下半年的支出是值得考慮的好基礎。我的意思是,僅將第四季度的支出按年計算就意味著您的支出將增長約 15%,對嗎?因此,要獲得一定的營運槓桿,您需要收入更快成長。那麼,您如何看待 EBT 利潤率的潛在改善,以達到您給出的指南(即您給出的長期指南)?這應該是線性改進嗎?它是否非常依賴利率下降和情況改善?只是為了了解 - 特別是在本季度,利潤率有點低,我知道有一些一次性的情況。第四季是否有一些季節性,因為去年第四季度,EBT 利潤率也有點低。那麼,想想這些利潤率如何從這裡提高?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I would say that, yes, it is dependent of the macro part of it to have this operating leverage kick in our business, I mean, has been growing at a slower pace than in the periods of bull market still growing, but with margins healthy, but at the low end of our guidance for EBT margin. And we have said that. We said, look, we expect the margins -- annual margins because on a quarter basis, it's -- as I said, it's volatile. But on an annual basis, we expect to go from 26% to 32% from 2023 to 2025. And in that assumption, it is embedded in a better environment and scenario for investments as we move forward. We are not there yet.

    我想說的是,是的,我們業務中的營運槓桿作用取決於宏觀部分,我的意思是,我們的業務增長速度比牛市時期的增長速度要慢,但仍在增長,但利潤率保持健康,但處於我們的EBT 利潤率指引的低端。我們已經說過了。我們說,看,我們預計利潤率——年度利潤率,因為按季度計算,正如我所說,它是不穩定的。但按年計算,我們預計從 2023 年到 2025 年將從 26% 增加到 32%。在這一假設中,隨著我們的前進,它嵌入了更好的投資環境和場景中。我們還沒到那一步。

  • So we -- all the businesses that we have been growing like cards, for example, it has a lower margin compared to the 26% EBT margin, for example. So of course, it's the relevance of this business growth. And the other part is growing less because of the macro and it's the most relevant part in our business.

    因此,我們一直在發展的所有業務(例如信用卡)的利潤率低於 26% 的 EBT 利潤率。當然,這是業務成長的相關性。另一部分則由於宏觀因素而成長較少,這是我們業務中最相關的部分。

  • EBT margin will struggle to accelerate the pace really faster even with a strict cost control but -- so it's not a linear. I don't see this as a linear movement going forward, okay? Because we do have -- and that's the point of that slide that I presented regarding the operating leverage of our business. That's why when we gave the guidance for our net income in 2023, it was a large spread, BRL 3.8 billion with BRL 4.4 billion, and we ended delivering the BRL 3.9 billion. But why was that? Because if the macro change, [this ways] another scenario that we do not control and we do not have a crystal ball to know exactly what it's going to be. It could be much higher. That's exactly the operating leverage of the business that we carry in our ecosystem. So the macro, it is important to see the EBT margin expanding forward.

    即使嚴格控製成本,EBT 利潤率也很難真正更快地加快步伐,但是——所以它不是線性的。我不認為這是一個線性的前進過程,好嗎?因為我們確實有——這就是我展示的有關我們業務營運槓桿的幻燈片的要點。這就是為什麼當我們給出 2023 年淨利潤指引時,差距很大,分別為 38 億雷亞爾和 44 億雷亞爾,最終我們交付了 39 億雷亞爾。但那是為什麼呢?因為如果宏觀發生變化,[這會]出現另一種我們無法控制的情況,我們也沒有水晶球來確切知道它會是什麼。它可能會高得多。這正是我們在生態系統中經營業務的營運槓桿。因此,從宏觀角度來看,重要的是要看到息稅前利潤率不斷擴大。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • Maybe, I guess 1 follow-up there. In terms of -- also how you think about maybe the seasonality, if we look at B3 volumes sort of continue to be weak. So could there be more short-term pressure on that EBT margin, at least in the first half of the year because you're not seeing volumes sort of recover yet. Rates are still in the double digits. I know you're not going to give short-term guidance. But just to think about sort of the current dynamics that we're still currently seeing in the markets right now. Is it fair to assume perhaps a little bit of short-term pressure?

    也許,我猜有 1 個後續行動。就您如何看待季節性而言,如果我們看看 B3 的銷量,那麼它仍然疲軟。因此,EBT 利潤率是否會面臨更大的短期壓力,至少在今年上半年,因為你還沒有看到銷售有所恢復。利率仍維持在兩位數。我知道你不會提供短期指導。但想想我們目前在市場上仍然看到的當前動態。承擔一點短期壓力是否公平​​?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I don't know if a short-term pressure. What I can share here, Tito, are 2 points. Number one, in terms of -- for example, in terms of the efficiency ratio going forward, just remember that when we have the first quarter of 2024, we are going to take out the first quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, the SG&A was helped by a very low share-based compensation. If you go back there and look at the numbers, it was BRL 53 million of share-based compensation in the first quarter '23 and in the fourth quarter now, BRL 166 million, and that BRL 53 million was low because we had the impact of the layoffs and so on, cancellations, et cetera, that had a positive impact in the first quarter. So that's 1 thing to have in mind for the short term.

    不知道短期有沒有壓力。蒂托,我在這裡可以分享兩點。第一,例如,就未來的效率而言,請記住,當我們有 2024 年第一季時,我們將剔除 2023 年第一季。在 2023 年第一季度,SG&A 得益於非常低的股權薪酬。如果你回頭看一下這些數字,23 年第一季的股票薪酬為 5,300 萬雷亞爾,現在第四季為 1.66 億雷亞爾,而 5,300 萬雷亞爾較低,因為我們受到了影響裁員、取消等等,對第一季產生了積極影響。所以這是短期內需要記住的一件事。

  • The other point is we do have seasonality in our results. If you go back in the last 5 years and you do an average, you're going to see that the first quarter of the year is always the weakest quarter for the year, okay? Because that's how the business works, especially at our core business investments. So the last 5 years, the average for revenue for EBT and for net income in the first quarter, 21% of the total of the year, not 25%. So it's lower. And then second and third quarter tend to be better. Fourth quarter is trickier because we have the performance fees, you might have some capital market activity. But in terms of the investments, business days and holidays and so on, it's not as strong as the third quarter, for example. So we will see. That's why I always like to guide to look last 12 months, look at the year, look last 12 months, take 1 quarter and put the other with the same seasonality because looking on a quarterly basis, you can get it wrong. It can be a very good and you're going to expect to continue, and that's not what happens or the opposite way around.

    另一點是我們的結果確實存在季節性。如果你回顧過去 5 年並進行平均,你會發現每年的第一季總是全年最疲軟的季度,好嗎?因為這就是業務的運作方式,尤其是在我們的核心業務投資方面。因此,過去 5 年第一季 EBT 收入和淨利潤的平均值為全年總額的 21%,而不是 25%。所以比較低。然後第二季和第三季往往會更好。第四季比較棘手,因為我們有績效費,你可能會有一些資本市場活動。但從投資、工作日和假日等方面來看,就沒有第三季那麼強勁。所以我們會看到。這就是為什麼我總是喜歡指導查看過去 12 個月,查看年份,查看過去 12 個月,取 1 個季度並將另一個季度置於相同的季節性,因為按季度查看,您可能會出錯。這可能會非常好,你會期望繼續下去,但事實並非如此,或者相反。

  • Daer Labarta - VP

    Daer Labarta - VP

  • One quick just clarification. You didn't really have much incentives from B3 and some of the card companies. Is this a new normal now? Should we no longer really expect those incentives going forward?

    快速澄清一下。 B3 和一些信用卡公司並沒有給你太多激勵。現在這是新常態嗎?我們是否應該不再真正期望這些激勵措施能持續下去?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • No. From the Visa and types of things, no, we do not expect to have anything relevant there going forward. From B3, we might, I mean, it's -- they have its slot because that's an annual process. But the main change that you saw, it was related in the fourth quarter this year to the fourth quarter '23 -- sorry, with the fourth quarter '22 was due to some incentives that we received from Visa that this last year, fourth quarter '23, it didn't happen. But we are always looking for incentives to value our ecosystem, our balcony and any player that want to access our ecosystem knows that we have a premium, I would say, type of client because we are focused on the investors.

    不。從簽證和事情類型來看,不,我們預計未來不會有任何相關的事情。從 B3 開始,我們可能,我的意思是,他們有自己的位置,因為這是一個年度流程。但你看到的主要變化與今年第四季度和 23 年第四季度有關 - 抱歉,22 年第四季度是由於我們從 Visa 收到的一些激勵措施,即去年第四季度'23,這沒有發生。但我們一直在尋找激勵措施來評估我們的生態系統、我們的陽台,任何想要進入我們生態系統的玩家都知道我們擁有優質的客戶類型,因為我們專注於投資者。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Renato Meloni from Autonomous.

    下一位是來自 Autonomous 的 Renato Meloni。

  • Renato Meloni

    Renato Meloni

  • I wanted to get some more clarity on the Issuer Services dynamics for revenues. So it came from a very strong 3Q that was affected by particular reasons there. But again, you repeated a very strong quarter, you had higher volumes, but you also mentioned that M&A helped. So I'm trying to understand here to which proportion M&A contributed? And going forward, what's a recurring level of revenue in the segment that you expect?

    我想更清楚地了解發行人服務的收入動態。因此,它來自非常強勁的第三季度,受到特定原因的影響。但同樣,您重複了一個非常強勁的季度,銷量更高,但您也提到併購有所幫助。所以我想了解併購貢獻了多少比例?展望未來,您預期該細分市場的經常性收入水準為何?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • The third quarter was really strong because of DCM activity. You are 100% right on that. And -- but again, we are growing our investment banking franchise as we move forward. The whole ecosystem, what Maffra mentioned, in terms of the potential for wholesale in our ecosystem, considering we already have the relationship with the corporate clients giving them access to capital markets through our distribution and so on, it's important. It plays a role. Those things, they take time. So everything is recurrent, but the point is it's not a straight line. You have some types of revenue that, by nature, on a quarterly basis, they are more volatile. M&A is 1 of those. And M&A is a business that takes time to build. You need to build the portfolio, you need to build the relationship, you need to get the mandates. And that's a long-term view.

    由於 DCM 活動,第三季表現非常強勁。你是100%正確的。而且,隨著我們的前進,我們正在擴大我們的投資銀行業務。 Maffra 提到的整個生態系統,就我們生態系統中的批發潛力而言,考慮到我們已經與企業客戶建立了關係,讓他們透過我們的分銷等方式進入資本市場,這一點很重要。它發揮作用。這些事情,需要時間。所以一切都是循環的,但重點是它不是一條直線。有些類型的收入本質上是按季度計算波動性更大。併購就是其中之一。併購是一項需要時間打造的事業。你需要建立投資組合,你需要建立關係,你需要獲得授權。這是一個長期的觀點。

  • And in this fourth quarter, we do not disclose exactly how much was the revenue, but it was relevant in terms of contribution. It was by far the highest growth quarter-over-quarter. And that's an ongoing business that we are not where we believe we can be in the future. So we are going to keep investing in our franchise business and the wholesale platform for our clients.

    在第四季度,我們沒有透露具體的收入是多少,但就貢獻而言是相關的。這是迄今為止最高的季度環比增長。這是一項持續的業務,但我們相信未來可以實現這一目標。因此,我們將繼續投資於我們的特許經營業務和為客戶提供的批發平台。

  • Renato Meloni

    Renato Meloni

  • And do you think you have a baseline revenues here that you can disclose? Or still expected to be volatile.

    您認為您有可以透露的基準收入嗎?或仍預期會出現波動。

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I can't disclose a baseline. The baseline that we have, for example, is the DCM business. This is like a very, I would say, I don't want to use the word current, but it's more stable. It's less volatile. But again, you saw the third quarter, DCM was the best quarter for DCM activity with some volatility.

    我不能透露基線。例如,我們的基準是 DCM 業務。這就像一個非常,我想說,我不想使用當前這個詞,但它更穩定。它的波動性較小。但您再次看到,第三季度 DCM 是 DCM 活動最好的季度,但存在一些波動。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley.

    下一位是摩根士丹利的豪爾赫·庫裡。

  • Jorge Kuri - MD

    Jorge Kuri - MD

  • I wanted to go back to Slide 11 where Bruno talked about the potential for -- unlocking potential for operating leverage. You highlighted Bruno, 1.5% take rate in 2021 versus 1% in 2023 and mentioned that -- that's around a BRL 4 billion revenue gap. And I just want to understand why are you going back to 2021 to that 1.5%? How is that achievable again? And I mean I'm guessing you purposely pointed it out because you do think that that's something where we could had or the business would had. So under what circumstances could you be, again, at 1.5% take rate? Does it take a year, 2 years, 3 years? And maybe that's not the take rate that you can get to that was sort of like extraordinary times given where rates were I think is a leak average less than 5% that year, which is just like any possibility for Brazil anytime soon. So maybe what do you think is achievable in terms of upside to your take rate, which sat at 1% in 2023, say, over the next 2 years.

    我想回到幻燈片 11,布魯諾在其中談到了釋放營運槓桿潛力的潛力。您強調了 Bruno,2021 年的採用率為 1.5%,而 2023 年為 1%,並提到,收入差距約為 40 億雷亞爾。我只是想知道為什麼要回到 2021 年的 1.5%?如何再次實現這個目標?我的意思是,我猜你故意指出這一點,因為你確實認為這是我們可以擁有或企業可以擁有的東西。那麼,在什麼情況下,您的利率會再次達到 1.5% 呢?需要一年、兩年、三年嗎?也許這不是你能達到的接受率,那有點像非凡的時期,我認為那一年的平均洩漏率低於 5%,這就像巴西很快就會出現的任何可能性一樣。那麼,您認為在未來 2 年中,您的採用率在 2023 年為 1%,您認為可以實現哪些目標。

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • The idea of this slide was not a guidance, anything like that, okay? That's why I mentioned a math exercise. But was to remind all of us about the business we have in XP because sometimes we've been through 2 years, very tough 2 years in terms of our core business investments. It's been really tough for 2 years. And we tend to forget the type of business that we have in our core. When we put the market share of B3 for retail, to remind that our market share has been pretty much stable around 50%, 48% in the end of December, 48% 4x our closest competitor. But that type of business can have a huge operating leverage.

    這張投影片的想法不是指導之類的,好嗎?這就是為什麼我提到數學練習。但這是為了提醒我們所有人有關 XP 的業務,因為有時我們已經經歷了 2 年,就我們的核心業務投資而言非常艱難的 2 年。這兩年真的很難熬。我們往往忘記我們的核心業務類型。當我們把 B3 的零售市佔率放在一起時,提醒一下,我們的市佔率一直穩定在 50% 左右,12 月底為 48%,48% 是我們最接近的競爭對手的 4 倍。但這類業務可以擁有巨大的營運槓桿。

  • If we have, for example, a market where risk unload a lot of IPOs, capital market activity, individuals in Brazil that is sub-penetrated coming to the stock market to invest in equity, so on and so on. In that type of environment, this operating leverage in our ecosystem can be huge. So the math exercise is not say, "Oh, if we have a risk on mold, we're going to have BRL 4 billion additional in revenue without 1 single Real in additional SG&A. That's not the point. It can be BRL 1 billion, can be BRL 2 billion, can be the BRL 4 billion, I don't know. I don't know what the take rate would be in such an environment.

    例如,如果我們有一個市場,其中有大量首次公開募股的風險卸載,資本市場活動,巴西的個人滲透率較低,進入股票市場投資股權,等等。在這種環境下,我們生態系統中的營運槓桿可能非常巨大。因此,數學練習並不是說,「哦,如果我們有黴菌風險,我們將獲得 40 億雷亞爾的額外收入,而無需額外 SG&A 中的 1 個實數。這不是重點。可能是 10 億雷亞爾,可以是20億雷亞爾,可以是40億雷亞爾,我不知道。我不知道在這樣的環境下,採取率會是多少。

  • And you have a point, because in 2021, probably we had very low interest rates in Brazil, 2%. We had the COVID. So different scenario, probably is not going to be like 2021. I don't know what it's going to be. But I know or at least I expect that at some point in time, because this business is cyclical, we are going to have -- or we are going to be in the part of the cycle where it's going to be a bull market, a risk-on mode, a lot of companies coming back to the market. And in this environment, our ecosystem as of today is much bigger than what it was back in the last bull market cycle. And we expect our business to really benefit from that scenario. So that's the message of this slide. Do not forget this because that's what XP has in its ecosystem. It's been dormant for the past 2 years.

    你說得有道理,因為 2021 年,巴西的利率可能非常低,為 2%。我們感染了新冠病毒。如此不同的場景,可能不會像 2021 年那樣。我不知道會是什麼樣子。但我知道或至少我預計在某個時間點,因為這項業務是週期性的,我們將會——或者我們將處於週期的一部分,這將是一個牛市,一個風險偏好模式下,很多公司重返市場。在這種環境下,我們今天的生態系統比上一個牛市週期時大得多。我們希望我們的業務能夠真正從這種情況中受益。這就是這張投影片的訊息。不要忘記這一點,因為這就是 XP 生態系的內容。過去2年一直處於休眠狀態。

  • Jorge Kuri - MD

    Jorge Kuri - MD

  • No, I appreciate that I fully understand it. But -- so just to continue on that thought, I'm sure you know what your different business lines can do in a scenario of low rates, risk on volume growth, how prices on an apples-to-apples basis have changed because of competition and how the mix of your business also implies a change in the take rate. Just help us understand what is that attractive upside? Is it 1.1%, 1.2%, 1.3% take rates in sort of like blue sky scenario or maybe it's not, right? I mean, maybe it could be 10% because competition just continues to do what it normally does, which is extract excess pricing from the market. So just help us understand that because that's obviously a really critical component of how your earnings look in 2024 and 2025. So that would be much appreciated.

    不,我很感激我完全理解它。但是,為了繼續這個想法,我相信您知道在低利率的情況下您的不同業務線可以做什麼,銷量增長的風險,逐個價格如何變化,因為競爭以及您的業務組合如何也意味著轉化率的變化。請幫助我們了解這個有吸引力的優勢是什麼? 1.1%、1.2%、1.3% 的利率是否有點像藍天場景,或者也許不是,對吧?我的意思是,也許可能是 10%,因為競爭只是繼續做它通常所做的事情,即從市場中榨取多餘的定價。所以請幫助我們理解這一點,因為這顯然是您 2024 年和 2025 年收入的一個非常關鍵的組成部分。所以我們將不勝感激。

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I hear you, but if I give you a number, it's going to be like giving a guidance, and honestly, I don't want to do that. What I can tell you, Jorge, it's not about price competition. The price, I mean, we -- for equities, for example, brokerage commissions, with 0 brokerage commissions back in 2018 with clear. We were the first 1 to do so. So it's not exactly about price. Competition can have an impact in terms of market share, in terms of flow and so on, but not about price in my view. So the potential exists, how much the potential means in the bull market, it will depend. It will depend how strong the bull market is. It will depend on various factors that it's hard to give you a number right now. But I'm pretty sure that whatever the number is, is going to be relevant, considering the size of our ecosystem.

    我聽到了,但如果我給你一個數字,那就像是提供指導一樣,老實說,我不想這樣做。我可以告訴你,豪爾赫,這與價格競爭無關。我的意思是,我們對於股票的價格,例如經紀佣金,2018 年的經紀佣金為 0,這一點是明確的。我們是第一個這樣做的。所以這並不完全是價格的問題。競爭會在市場佔有率、流量等方面產生影響,但在我看來,不會影響價格。所以潛力是存在的,潛力在牛市中意味著多大,就看情況了。這將取決於牛市的強度。這取決於多種因素,目前很難給你一個數字。但我非常確定,考慮到我們生態系統的規模,無論數字是多少,都將是相關的。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Gabriel Gusan from Citi.

    下一位是花旗銀行的加布里埃爾古桑 (Gabriel Gusan)。

  • Gabriel Gusan - Research Analyst

    Gabriel Gusan - Research Analyst

  • So most of my questions were answered. One last is about your other operating expenses line. There is aligning a legal, administrative proceedings and agreements with clients. This line has been growing much quicker than anything else. It was like BRL 2 million per quarter last year. It was somewhere around BRL 12 million this quarter. And there were several news about like complaints recently in XP possibly having to reimburse those clients. Is this something related to what was mentioned in the news. It is something we should expect to continue growing at a quicker pace. Can you please shed some light on it?

    所以我的大部分問題都得到了解答。最後一個是關於您的其他營運費用項目。我們正在與客戶協調法律、行政程序和協議。這條線的成長速度比其他任何一條線都要快得多。去年每季約 200 萬雷亞爾。本季約 1200 萬雷亞爾。最近有幾則訊息指出 XP 可能需要賠償這些客戶的類似投訴。這是否與新聞中提到的內容有關?我們應該期望它會繼續以更快的速度成長。你能解釋一下嗎?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • No, I would -- I mean it's mainly -- I would say it's mainly related to Modal acquisition when we onboarded the whole thing. We might have some part of it related to the cost cuts that we did at the beginning of 2023. Those things, they usually, they take like 6 months to kick in. So we would hit in the second semester last year, but we do not expect anything unusual going forward here.

    不,我會——我的意思是這主要是——我會說這主要與我們加入整個專案時收購 Modal 有關。我們可能有一部分與我們在 2023 年初所做的成本削減有關。這些事情通常需要 6 個月的時間才能生效。所以我們會在去年第二學期開始實施,但我們確實這樣做了不要指望這裡會發生任何不尋常的事情。

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • Next one is Ricardo Buchpiguel from BTG.

    下一位是來自 BTG 的 Ricardo Buchpiguel。

  • Ricardo Buchpiguel - Research Analyst

    Ricardo Buchpiguel - Research Analyst

  • I have 1 question here about credit. We haven't seen that the unsecured portion of the credit portfolio has been accelerating the growth pace, which also has been fallen by a higher loan loss provision, right? So once you get more color on what we should expect for both this line in the following quarters and years? And what exactly is the client profile of this individual taking then a secured credit line.

    我有 1 個關於信用的問題。我們還沒有看到信貸組合中的無擔保部分正在加速成長,而貸款損失準備金的增加也導致了這一部分的下降,對嗎?那麼,一旦您對我們在接下來的季度和幾年中對這條產品線的預期有了更多的了解,會怎麼樣呢?這個接受擔保信貸額度的人的客戶資料到底是什麼?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • We have been growing our credit card business, as you know. And as we move down in [XP Enrico], we go to unsecured credit card -- credit exposure. But with a client that has investments somehow with us can be a low investment but it has investment with us. What we monitor closely also is our loss absorption ratio, which despite the growth in NPL because of this unsecured part, the L.A. is above 2 times for sure, and in a very healthy pace. But as you know, the credit card business, as you grow, it has this impact to recognize the expected credit loss right up front. So yes, we monitor the economic sense of the business. And if it makes sense, we are going to continue to grow cautiously there, but we are going to continue to grow even if it hurts a little bit in the short term, for accounting purposes, if it makes economic sense for sure.

    如您所知,我們一直在發展信用卡業務。當我們在 [XP Enrico] 中向下移動時,我們進入無擔保信用卡—信用風險。但是,對於以某種方式與我們進行投資的客戶來說,這可能是一項較低的投資,但它與我們進行了投資。我們也密切監控我們的損失吸收率,儘管不良貸款因無擔保部分而成長,但洛杉磯肯定會超過 2 倍,而且速度非常健康。但如您所知,隨著信用卡業務的發展,它會產生預先確認預期信用損失的影響。所以,是的,我們監控企業的經濟意義。如果有意義的話,我們將繼續在那裡謹慎地成長,但我們將繼續成長,即使短期內會受到一點傷害,出於會計目的,如果它確實具有經濟意義的話。

  • Ricardo Buchpiguel - Research Analyst

    Ricardo Buchpiguel - Research Analyst

  • And just a follow-up here. As you go to the lower part of the pyramid in its operation, when you look at cost of risk, that is the provisions divided by the unsecured portfolio. Should we expect an increase looking forward because of this mix?

    這裡只是後續行動。當你進入金字塔的下半部時,當你考慮風險成本時,即準備金除以無擔保投資組合。由於這種組合,我們是否應該預期未來會有所成長?

  • Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

    Bruno Constantino Alexandre dos Santos - CFO & Director

  • I don't know. I don't know if you would see a higher provision ratio because of that. I think, we are well provisioned right now. And we intend to continue like that going forward. I don't know, Maffra you should add something.

    我不知道。我不知道您是否會因此而看到更高的撥備比率。我認為,我們現在已經準備好了。我們打算繼續這樣下去。我不知道,Maffra,你應該補充一些東西。

  • Thiago Maffra - CEO

    Thiago Maffra - CEO

  • Yes. One important point is we don't have any strategy to go to the bottom of the pyramid or focuses on investor clients, okay? So that's why when you look our APL, it's much lower than the market. Of course, we have different card segments for different types of clients. What I can say is when you look the collateralized credit card, it's very low. Clients with 50,000 plus invested at XP. When you go to clients with less than 50,000 at XP, the NPL more than double. When you go to [Enrico], it triples compare like to the collateralized one, okay? But as Bruno mentioned, there was absorption on the worst cohorts still above too, okay? That's very high. And when you talk about provisions against the NPL, we have very good provisions today. So we do not expect like to have any additional provisions. But when you look the card portfolio is growing, so that's why you can expect the provisions to grow, okay?

    是的。重要的一點是我們沒有任何策略可以去金字塔底層或專注於投資者客戶,好嗎?這就是為什麼當你看我們的 APL 時,它比市場低得多。當然,我們針對不同類型的客戶有不同的卡段。我可以說的是,當你查看抵押信用卡時,你會發現它的利率非常低。超過 50,000 名客戶投資 XP。當 XP 金額低於 50,000 的客戶時,NPL 會增加一倍以上。當你去[Enrico]時,它比抵押的要三倍,好嗎?但正如布魯諾所提到的,上面最糟糕的群體也被吸收了,好嗎?那是非常高的。當你談論針對不良貸款的規定時,我們今天有非常好的規定。因此,我們預計不會有任何額外的規定。但是當你看到信用卡組合正在成長時,這就是為什麼你可以預期準備金會成長,好嗎?

  • Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

    Andre Parize - Head of Investor Realtions

  • So this is the end of our conference call. So thank you very much for attending today. And the IR team is available for any further details that you might need. And we're going to meet you again in the next quarter. Thank you so much.

    我們的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您今天出席。 IR 團隊可以為您提供任何可能需要的進一步詳細資訊。我們將在下個季度再次與您見面。太感謝了。