在收到潛在買家主動提出的建議後,美國鋼鐵公司正在進行戰略替代方案審查程序。
該公司第三季財務業績強勁,預計未來幾年將進一步成長和獲利。
他們正在採取行動降低成本並在動蕩的市場條件下保持獲利能力。
該公司提供了 EBITDA 指導,並討論了投入成本和市場狀況等因素。
他們正在密切關注與汽車製造商的談判,並考慮對其營運的影響。
美國鋼鐵公司預計明年第一季價格上漲,並預計儘管市場狀況不佳,歐洲的 EBITDA 仍將穩定。
他們承認鋼鐵業面臨挑戰,但預計需求會出現一些反彈。
該公司強調良好營運的重要性,並致力於提供最佳的鋼鐵解決方案並將安全性放在首位。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United States Steel Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
大家早安,歡迎參加美國鋼鐵公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音。
I'll now hand the call over to Kevin Lewis, Vice President of Finance.
現在我將把電話轉給財務副總裁凱文·劉易斯 (Kevin Lewis)。
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Thank you, Tommy. Good morning, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings call.
謝謝你,湯米。早安,感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。
Joining me on today's call is U.S. Steel President and CEO, Dave Burritt; Senior Vice President and CFO, Jessica Graziano; and Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer, Rich Fruehauf.
參加今天電話會議的有美國鋼鐵公司總裁兼執行長 Dave Burritt;資深副總裁兼財務長傑西卡‧格拉齊亞諾 (Jessica Graziano);資深副總裁兼首席策略與永續發展長 Rich Fruehauf。
I would also like to take the opportunity to welcome Emily Chieng. She recently joined U.S. Steel as our Investor Relations Officer. Emily brings tremendous experience from her time as a sell-side analyst covering metals and mining. I know many of you already had the chance to meet Emily in her new role, and we look forward to your continued engagement with her and the Investor Relations team.
我還想藉此機會歡迎艾米麗·錢(Emily Chieng)。她最近加入美國鋼鐵公司,擔任投資者關係官。 Emily 帶來了她作為金屬和採礦業賣方分析師的豐富經驗。我知道你們中的許多人已經有機會見到艾米麗的新角色,我們期待你們繼續與她和投資者關係團隊合作。
This morning, we posted slides to accompany today's prepared remarks. These can be found on the U.S. Steel Investor Relations page under the Overview section.
今天早上,我們發布了幻燈片以配合今天準備好的演講。這些可以在美國鋼鐵投資者關係頁面的概述部分找到。
Before we start, let me remind you that some information provided during this call may include forward-looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, and actual future results may vary materially. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued yesterday, along with our remarks today, are made as of today, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold.
在我們開始之前,請允許我提醒您,本次電話會議期間提供的一些資訊可能包括基於某些假設的前瞻性陳述,並受到我們SEC 文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響,未來的實際結果可能會有所不同。我們昨天發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及我們今天的言論均截至今天,我們不承擔隨著實際事件的發展而更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。
With that, I would like to turn the conference call over to U.S. Steel President and CEO, Dave Burritt, who will begin on Slide 4.
接下來,我想將電話會議轉交給美國鋼鐵公司總裁兼執行長 Dave Burritt,他將從幻燈片 4 開始。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to all of you joining us. We appreciate your continued interest in U.S. Steel and look forward to this morning's discussion.
謝謝你,凱文,祝所有加入我們的人早安。我們感謝您對美國鋼鐵公司的持續關注,並期待今天上午的討論。
But as we begin, we are deeply saddened by recent events in Ukraine, the Middle East or earlier this week in Maine. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those impacted by these tragedies.
但在我們開始之前,我們對最近在烏克蘭、中東或本週稍早在緬因州發生的事件深感悲痛。我們向那些受這些悲劇影響的人們表示哀悼和祈禱。
But this morning, we'd like to focus on 3 key messages that will shape our commentary: first, a high level of interest in U.S. Steel that has come to light from the strategic alternatives review process; second, the continued strong performance of the business today, as Jess will discuss in our third quarter results; and third, the opportunity we have today to bridge the market to higher expected EBITDA than what we currently believe is being projected by The Street for 2024. Throughout the call, we hope you'll hear the enthusiasm we have for maximizing stockholder value.
但今天早上,我們想專注於三個關鍵訊息,這些訊息將影響我們的評論:首先,戰略替代審查過程中顯示出對美國鋼鐵公司的高度興趣;其次,今天業務的持續強勁表現,正如 Jess 將在我們的第三季業績中討論的那樣;第三,我們今天有機會讓市場達到比我們目前認為的華爾街預測的 2024 年更高的預期 EBITDA。在整個電話會議中,我們希望您能聽到我們對股東價值最大化的熱情。
Let's start with the first point, the strategic alternatives review process. We announced in August that after receiving multiple unsolicited proposals from credible bidders, ranging from the acquisition of certain production assets to the entirety of U.S. Steel, the U.S. Steel Board of Directors had initiated the strategic alternatives review process. The company's Board of Directors, with the assistance of the management team and its advisers, is progressing a robust, fair and rigorous review process. The Board's North Star is and will continue to be maximizing stockholder value. The process remains ongoing, and therefore, we must respect our confidentiality obligations and the work the Board is doing. Rest assured, steady progress is being made as we continue to support the due diligence efforts of the bidders in the process. To be very clear, again, our Board is fully committed to maximizing stockholder value.
讓我們從第一點開始,即策略替代方案審查流程。我們在 8 月宣布,在收到可信賴投標者主動提出的多項提案(從收購某些生產資產到收購整個美國鋼鐵公司)後,美國鋼鐵公司董事會已啟動戰略替代方案審查流程。公司董事會在管理團隊及其顧問的協助下,正在推動穩健、公平和嚴格的審查流程。董事會的北極星正在並將繼續實現股東價值最大化。這個過程仍在進行中,因此,我們必須尊重我們的保密義務和董事會正在進行的工作。請放心,隨著我們在過程中繼續支持投標人的盡職調查工作,我們正在取得穩步進展。再次明確的是,我們的董事會完全致力於股東價值最大化。
While I can't speak to the specifics of the process, I can tell you this: there is serious interest from many highly credible bidders in the Board's competitive process. Guided by our code of conduct, known as our Steel principles, once the process is complete, the U.S. Steel Board will make a decision that is in the best interest of our stockholders.
雖然我無法透露流程的具體細節,但我可以告訴您:許多高度可信的投標者對董事會的競爭流程抱有濃厚的興趣。在我們的行為準則(即我們的鋼鐵原則)的指導下,一旦該過程完成,美國鋼鐵委員會將做出符合我們股東最大利益的決定。
With that update, we will not answer any questions about the process or participants. We are flattered by all the interest in our company, flattered, but not surprised. We know that U.S. Steel is strategically positioned for tremendous value creation in the months and years ahead. We've been climbing a mountain of strategic CapEx. And now that we're coming down the other side of the mountain, we're not surprised so many see it won't be long before these new world-class assets generate strong free cash flow. In fact, we are creating value today as we continue to deliver on our Best for All strategy, the second point of enthusiasm for stockholders.
更新後,我們將不會回答有關流程或參與者的任何問題。我們對大家對我們公司的興趣感到受寵若驚,但並不感到驚訝。我們知道,美國鋼鐵公司的策略定位是在未來幾個月乃至數年創造巨大價值。我們一直在攀登戰略資本支出的一座大山。現在我們已經走到了山的另一邊,我們並不感到驚訝,因為許多人認為用不了多久這些新的世界級資產就會產生強勁的自由現金流。事實上,我們今天正在創造價值,因為我們繼續實施「最適合所有人」策略,這是股東熱情的第二點。
To that end, we are very pleased to have safely delivered a strong third quarter performance, our 12th consecutive quarter of profitability. And even with elevated capital spending, we generated another positive free cash flow quarter. Consistency has become our middle name.
為此,我們非常高興能夠安全地實現第三季度的強勁業績,這是我們連續第 12 個季度實現盈利。即使資本支出增加,我們仍創造了另一個正的自現金流季度。一致性已成為我們的中間名。
Our results reflect a solid operational performance. Our position in the heart of the U.S.A., the world's most robust steel industry. Our resilience and flexibility in the face of shifting business conditions and our continued laser focus on safety. In fact, we're on pace for another record best year of safety performance. I say another because our exceptional safety record follows record safety performances in 2020, in 2021and in 2022. Our stellar safety record is part and parcel of our stellar operations. We have a culture of caring. Safety has always been and always will be one of our core values. The way we see it, if you aren't operating safely, you aren't operating well. Our safety performance, enabled by the best employees in the steel industry, allowed us to deliver strong financials in the third quarter. Our Best for All strategy is paying off.
我們的業績反映了穩健的營運績效。我們位於美國的中心,是世界上最強大的鋼鐵工業。面對不斷變化的業務條件,我們的韌性和靈活性以及我們對安全的持續關注。事實上,我們有望再創安全績效最佳的一年。我說另一個是因為我們卓越的安全記錄是在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年創紀錄的安全表現之後實現的。我們出色的安全記錄是我們出色營運的重要組成部分。我們有關懷的文化。安全一直是並將永遠是我們的核心價值之一。在我們看來,如果您的操作不安全,那麼您的操作就不好。我們的安全績效得益於鋼鐵業最優秀的員工,使我們能夠在第三季度實現強勁的財務表現。我們的「全民最佳」策略正在發揮成效。
We've talked about this before, U.S. Steel is well positioned to leverage megatrends that favor our industry. We are up to the challenge to harness these megatrends with our competitive advantages. With much of the global steel industry stagnant at best when you consider industry dynamics in China and in Europe, we are bullish on American steel. Why? On our last call, I mentioned the 3 global megatrends that will provide tailwinds for American steel and our business in the months and years to come.
我們之前已經討論過這一點,美國鋼鐵公司處於有利地位,可以利用有利於我們行業的大趨勢。我們準備好迎接挑戰,利用我們的競爭優勢來駕馭這些大趨勢。考慮到中國和歐洲的產業動態,全球大部分鋼鐵業充其量都處於停滯狀態,因此我們看好美國鋼鐵。為什麼?在我們上次的電話會議上,我提到了三大全球大趨勢,它們將在未來幾個月和幾年內為美國鋼鐵和我們的業務提供順風。
One is accelerating deglobalization. In a world impacted by conflicts like those in the Middle East and Ukraine and emerging from a global pandemic that stretched supply chains to the limit, we are witnessing a stark reversal after decades of globalization. The upshot enabled by legislation like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, what we like to call the Manufacturing Renaissance Act. The United States is experienced once in a generation onshoring boom. The deglobalization boom means U.S. Steel's nearly 123-year history of producing steel that is mined, melted and made in the U.S.A. is paying significant dividends, with more to come and significant room for continued growth in North American steel demand.
一是逆全球化進程加速。在一個受到中東和烏克蘭等衝突影響的世界裡,以及剛擺脫供應鏈延伸到極限的全球大流行病的世界裡,我們正在目睹幾十年全球化後的明顯逆轉。這一結果是由《兩黨基礎設施法》、《CHIPS 法案》和《降低通貨膨脹法案》(我們喜歡稱之為《製造業復興法案》)等立法促成的。美國正在經歷一代人一次的在岸熱潮。去全球化的繁榮意味著美國鋼鐵公司近123 年在美國開採、熔煉和製造鋼鐵的歷史正在帶來巨大的紅利,未來還會有更多的紅利,北美鋼鐵需求的持續成長空間也很大。
Fundamental to the deglobalization trend is the U.S.A.'s achievement of energy independence. Between our strong segment in tubular steel and our line pipe products coming out of North America and flat-rolled, we are seeing and we will continue to see a robust order book supporting America's energy markets.
去全球化趨勢的基礎是美國實現能源獨立。在我們強大的鋼管業務和來自北美的平軋管線管產品之間,我們看到並將繼續看到強勁的訂單支持美國能源市場。
Another megatrend is decarbonization. There is a strong global commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With our electrical steels that are empowering the transition to EVs plus our exposure to sustainable steelmaking at Big River, U.S. Steel is well positioned to harness the decarbonization trend.
另一個大趨勢是脫碳。全球對減少溫室氣體排放做出了堅定的承諾。憑藉我們的電工鋼推動向電動車的過渡,再加上我們在 Big River 的可持續煉鋼業務,美國鋼鐵公司已做好充分準備,駕馭脫碳趨勢。
And the last is digitization. Tools like generative AI are enabling us to improve safety and efficiency and capture value in truly unprecedented ways. For instance, at our Minnesota mining operations, we are using AI to improve the maintenance of our truck fleet. AI applications are assisting crews with truck repairs, ordering parts and distilling complex information. We believe these megatrends will provide strong tailwinds for the domestic steel industry and especially for U.S. Steel.
最後是數位化。生成式人工智慧等工具使我們能夠提高安全性和效率,並以真正前所未有的方式獲取價值。例如,在明尼蘇達州的採礦作業中,我們正在使用人工智慧來改善卡車車隊的維護。人工智慧應用程式正在協助工作人員進行卡車維修、訂購零件和提取複雜資訊。我們相信這些大趨勢將為國內鋼鐵業,特別是美國鋼鐵公司提供強勁的推動力。
And finally, we're excited for what lies ahead as our Best for All strategy unlocks significant value in the next 12 months. This is an exciting time. We are in the heart of, if not the world's best and brightest steel industry, the United States of America. Of course, it's up to us to harness these megatrends to strengthen our business and ride the tailwinds, and that's exactly what we're doing with our strategic investments. This leads us to the third key message of this call bridging to 2024.
最後,我們對未來的發展感到興奮,因為我們的 Best for All 策略將在未來 12 個月內釋放巨大價值。這是一個令人興奮的時刻。我們位於美國(即使不是世界上最好、最光明的鋼鐵工業)的中心。當然,我們有責任利用這些大趨勢來加強我們的業務並順勢而為,而這正是我們透過策略投資所做的事情。這引出了本次電話會議的第三個關鍵訊息,以過渡到 2024 年。
As mentioned at the start of the call, our Best for All strategy unlocks significant value, value we don't believe The Street is fully projecting into their expectations for next year. Consider our new non-grain oriented or NGO electrical steel line, which just had its completion celebrated with a ribbon-cutting this month at Big River Steel. Our new InduX-branded electrical steel is now officially out in the market, enabling us to leverage both the decarbonization and deglobalization trends. And by the way, we delivered NGO on time and on budget.
正如在電話會議開始時提到的,我們的「最適合所有人」策略釋放了巨大的價值,我們認為華爾街並沒有完全將其價值融入他們對明年的期望中。考慮一下我們新的非晶粒取向或非政府組織電工鋼生產線,該生產線本月剛在大河鋼鐵公司舉行了剪綵慶祝活動。我們的新型 InduX 品牌電工鋼現已正式上市,使我們能夠利用脫碳和去全球化趨勢。順便說一句,我們按時、按預算交付了非政府組織。
Next, our dual-galvanized GALVALUME coating line or CGL2 at Big River is nearing its anticipated start-up in 2024. This line will leverage the sustainable steelmaking at the Big River complex to offer value-added construction and appliance deals.
接下來,我們位於 Big River 的雙鍍鋅 GALVALUME 塗層生產線或 CGL2 即將於 2024 年啟動。該生產線將利用 Big River 綜合體的可持續煉鋼技術提供增值建築和設備交易。
And then there's Big River 2, our state-of-the-art mini mill that remains on track for a second half 2024 start-up. As we shared during the last call, Big River 2, in combination with the existing Big River Steel, will form a cutting-edge, 6-million ton mega mill supplying the most advanced and sustainable steels in North America, with up to 70% to 80% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than the traditional integrated steelmaking route.
然後是 Big River 2,這是我們最先進的小型工廠,預計將於 2024 年下半年啟動。正如我們在上次電話會議中分享的那樣,Big River 2 與現有的Big River Steel 相結合,將形成一家尖端的600 萬噸大型鋼廠,供應北美最先進和可持續的鋼材,產能高達70 %與傳統的綜合煉鋼路線相比,溫室氣體排放量減少 80%。
Our progress at Big River 2 is tangible. When we last spoke in July, we just had 1/4 of the equipment on site. Today, almost 2/3 and our experienced construction team is progressing as closer to first coil in the second half of 2024.
我們在 Big River 2 上取得的進展是實實在在的。當我們上次在 7 月發言時,我們現場只有 1/4 的設備。如今,近 2/3 的進度和我們經驗豐富的施工團隊正在接近 2024 年下半年第一卷的交付。
Today, we'll spend time unpacking 2024 and helping bridge the gap between Best for All and 2024 Street estimates. This is time well spent given the transformation in our business model and the benefits we expect to see next year. Simply put, we believe that the trajectory of our performance both today and tomorrow has not been fully appreciated by the market. We are 12 months away from the scheduled launch of Big River 2, which means incremental strategic EBITDA creation and about $1 billion reduction to CapEx in 2024 relative to 2023.
今天,我們將花時間解讀 2024 年,並幫助彌合「最適合所有人」與 2024 年街頭預測之間的差距。考慮到我們業務模式的轉變以及我們預計明年將看到的效益,這是值得花時間的。簡而言之,我們認為我們今天和明天的業績軌跡尚未得到市場的充分認可。距離 Big River 2 的計劃發布還有 12 個月,這意味著 2024 年將實現戰略性 EBITDA 增量創造,並且相對 2023 年資本支出將減少約 10 億美元。
After years of heavy investment, we are finally coming down the CapEx mountain and ready to collect the bounty of free cash flow and unlock stockholder value. Even as we invest in strategic projects that will reshape our footprint and drive our Best for All strategy forward in 2024, we are taking necessary actions today in the face of volatile market conditions.
經過多年的大量投資,我們終於走下資本支出山,準備收集自由現金流的豐厚回報並釋放股東價值。儘管我們投資的策略項目將重塑我們的足跡並在 2024 年推動我們的「全民最佳」策略,但面對動盪的市場狀況,我們今天仍在採取必要的行動。
We have recently had to make some tough decisions related to reducing fixed costs in September when we made the difficult decision to temporarily idle our last operating blast furnace at Granite City Works. I say this was a difficult decision, and it truly was, but it was a necessary one. With the auto worker strike impacting the order book in the fourth quarter, we acted to ensure that our melt capacity is in line with demand. We remain nimble, enabling us to maintain profitability as we manage through uncertain market conditions.
最近,我們不得不在 9 月做出一些與降低固定成本相關的艱難決定,當時我們做出了暫時閒置 Granite City Works 最後一個正在運行的高爐的艱難決定。我說這是一個艱難的決定,確實如此,但這是必要的決定。由於汽車工人罷工影響了第四季度的訂單,我們採取行動確保我們的熔煉產能符合需求。我們保持靈活性,使我們能夠在應對不確定的市場條件時保持獲利能力。
Now let's turn things over to Jess who will go over the financials and 2024 expectations. Jess?
現在讓我們把事情交給 Jess,她將討論財務狀況和 2024 年的預期。傑西?
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Thanks, Dave, and good morning to everyone on the call.
謝謝戴夫,祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。
I'll pick up on Slide 5 where we'll start with a look at the third quarter. We were very pleased with third quarter performance with net earnings of $299 million or $1.20 per diluted share. Adjusting for certain onetime items, adjusted net earnings were $350 million or $1.40 per share. Both the adjusted EPS of $1.40 and adjusted EBITDA of $578 million were stronger than expected in large part from better performance across our NAFR segment.
我將繼續看投影片 5,我們將從第三季開始。我們對第三季的業績非常滿意,淨利潤為 2.99 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益 1.20 美元。在對某些一次性項目進行調整後,調整後淨利潤為 3.5 億美元,即每股 1.40 美元。調整後每股收益 1.40 美元和調整後 EBITDA 5.78 億美元均強於預期,這在很大程度上得益於我們 NAFR 部門的更好表現。
Free cash flow during the quarter was a positive $232 million. When you consider that we spent $423 million in strategic CapEx related to our in-flight projects, I'll note the business generated a robust $655 million in investable free cash flow in the third quarter.
本季自由現金流為正 2.32 億美元。當您考慮到我們在與飛行項目相關的戰略資本支出上花費了 4.23 億美元時,我會注意到該業務在第三季度產生了 6.55 億美元的強勁可投資自由現金流。
The balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape. We ended the quarter with $5.5 billion of total liquidity, including $3.2 billion of cash. Our leverage at September 30 remained very low at 2x adjusted debt to EBITDA. Buybacks are on a pause as a result of the strategic alternatives review. And to date, we have $125 million left to buy on our authorized $500 million program.
資產負債表繼續保持良好狀態。本季結束時,我們的流動資金總額為 55 億美元,其中包括 32 億美元的現金。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的槓桿率仍然非常低,為調整後債務與 EBITDA 的 2 倍。由於策略替代方案審查,回購暫停。迄今為止,我們授權的 5 億美元計畫還剩 1.25 億美元可供購買。
Now let's spend a few minutes on Q3 within the segments on Slide 6. Our Flat-Rolled segment delivered a sequentially strong third quarter with EBITDA of $378 million, and that's in line with Q2 performance. Despite a sequentially lower HRC environment in Q3, we realized higher-than-expected average selling prices, driven by mix benefits from a greater proportion of higher-value products sold in the quarter.
現在,讓我們花幾分鐘時間討論幻燈片6 中各細分市場中的第三季度。我們的扁軋細分市場第三季度表現持續強勁,EBITDA 為3.78 億美元,這與第二季度的業績一致。儘管第三季熱軋捲環境持續下降,但由於本季銷售的高價值產品比例增加帶來的混合效益,我們實現了高於預期的平均銷售價格。
The third quarter was also helped by raw material tailwinds, including lower outside purchased scrap and alloy costs. We also benefited from fixed cost reductions and lower mining-related costs during the quarter.
第三季也受惠於原料的推動,包括外部購買廢鋼和合金成本的降低。本季我們也受惠於固定成本的降低和採礦相關成本的降低。
Mini Mill segment EBITDA declined sequentially to $84 million as spot steel prices were lower, and we had slightly lower shipments. Lower metallics costs served to offset some of the pricing headwinds we experienced in Q3 with both the benefit of having our Gary Pig machine ramped to full run rate production during the quarter as well as lower scrap prices.
由於現貨鋼材價格較低,而且我們的出貨量略有下降,小型鋼廠部門的 EBITDA 連續下降至 8,400 萬美元。較低的金屬成本抵消了我們在第三季度經歷的一些定價阻力,這既得益於我們的 Gary Pig 機器在本季度達到滿載生產,又得益於較低的廢鋼價格。
The Mini Mill segment EBITDA margin for the quarter was 13%. And I will note that results this quarter included about $17 million of nonrecurring anticipated start-up costs for our in-flight projects at Big River. Adjusting for those expenses, Big River EBITDA margin would have been 15% in Q3, which is in line with expectations.
本季小型鋼廠部門 EBITDA 利潤率為 13%。我要指出的是,本季的業績包括我們在 Big River 的飛行項目的約 1700 萬美元的非經常性預期啟動成本。調整這些費用後,Big River 第三季的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15%,符合預期。
Moving to our European business, we delivered $10 million of EBITDA in the third quarter. We experienced declining prices and lower volumes impacting the topline in Europe. We also incurred costs related to the planned outage in August on one of our blast furnaces.
轉向我們的歐洲業務,我們在第三季實現了 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA。我們經歷了價格下降和銷售下降,影響了歐洲的營收。我們也因八月計畫停駛其中一座高爐而產生了相關費用。
The Tubular segment continued to deliver historically high EBITDA for the third quarter of $99 million at a very healthy 32% margin. You'll recall that we mentioned on our earnings call back in July that we expected results to slow in Q3 versus Q2. The sequential decrease in EBITDA was primarily driven by a reduction in lower average realized prices and shipments for Tubular.
第三季管材業務持續實現史上最高的 EBITDA 9,900 萬美元,利潤率為 32%,非常健康。您可能還記得,我們在 7 月的財報電話會議上提到,我們預計第三季的業績將比第二季放緩。 EBITDA 環比下降主要是由於 Tubular 平均實現價格和出貨量下降所致。
Later, I'll wrap up my prepared remarks with our customary outlook for the fourth quarter. But before I do that, I'll spend a few minutes providing context around 2024 expectations. As Dave mentioned, 2024 is an important year for us strategically as all of our in-flight projects will begin generating EBITDA and cash flow for at least a portion of the year, and our strategic capital spending starts to wind down. We're assessing the timing of those benefits as we get closer to project completion.
稍後,我將以我們對第四季的慣常展望來結束我準備好的發言。但在此之前,我將花幾分鐘時間提供有關 2024 年預期的背景資訊。正如Dave 所提到的,2024 年對我們來說是戰略上重要的一年,因為我們所有的在建項目將至少在一年中的一部分時間開始產生EBITDA 和現金流,並且我們的戰略資本支出開始減少。隨著專案接近完成,我們正在評估這些好處的時機。
We also expect to generate savings from identified and, in some cases, completed actions that we are taking in fixed costs and with continuous improvement projects in our mills and mines. These 2024 numbers are still assumptive and subject to change, so we'll continue to provide quarterly guidance. But as we've pulled forecast together for the year, we noticed a sizable gap to current analyst models. So to be helpful, we wanted to highlight year-over-year changes that we expect to see.
我們還希望透過我們在固定成本中採取的已確定的、在某些情況下已完成的行動以及我們工廠和礦山的持續改進項目來節省成本。這些 2024 年數字仍然是假設的,可能會發生變化,因此我們將繼續提供季度指導。但當我們匯總今年的預測時,我們注意到與當前分析師模型存在相當大的差距。因此,為了有所幫助,我們想強調我們預計會看到的逐年變化。
I want to start on Slide 7 by showing you the strategic project -- progress made over the last couple of years. Now as you can see, we are over the hump on the heavy CapEx that is a critical path to Best for All. We're about 12 months away from when we expect all of these initiatives will be up and running. And we're in the execution phase of our Gary Pig machine project. And as we've discussed, first coil was achieved last month on our NGO line.
我想從幻燈片 7 開始向您展示策略專案——過去幾年的進展。現在,正如您所看到的,我們已經度過了沉重的資本支出的難關,這是實現「最適合所有人」的關鍵道路。預計所有這些舉措都將啟動並運行,大約還有 12 個月的時間。我們正處於加里豬機器專案的執行階段。正如我們所討論的,上個月我們的非政府組織生產線上實現了第一卷。
Next up at Big River is our continuous GALV line or CGL2, which remains on track for start-up in mid-2024. Our DR-grade pellet facility in Minnesota is also on track for a fourth quarter 2023 start-up. We're in the midst of completing equipment installation, as we speak, in Minnesota, and our commercial team is progressing negotiations for offtake agreements.
Big River 的下一步是我們的連續 GALV 生產線或 CGL2,該生產線仍有望於 2024 年中期啟動。我們位於明尼蘇達州的 DR 級顆粒工廠也預計於 2023 年第四季啟動。正如我們所說,我們正在明尼蘇達州完成設備安裝,我們的商業團隊正在就承購協議進行談判。
And finally, Big River 2 is progressing by leaps and bounds. Take a look at the photos on Slide 8 in our investor presentation. Clearly, a picture is worth a thousand words. It is a beautiful site.
最後,《大河2》正突飛猛進地發展。請看我們投資人簡報中幻燈片 8 上的照片。顯然,一張圖片勝過一千個文字。這是一個美麗的網站。
So as you can see on Slide 9, using Dave's analogy, we are getting to the other side of the mountain towards the point of considerable value unlock. Once this investment period is complete, our footprint will support increased earnings stability, decreasing capital intensity and improving free cash flow generation next year.
正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣,使用戴夫的類比,我們正在到達山的另一邊,朝著釋放可觀價值的點邁進。一旦這個投資期結束,我們的足跡將支持提高獲利穩定性,降低資本密集度並改善明年的自由現金流產生。
On Slide 10, we want to provide some detail behind the pieces that together will help bridge the gap to 2024. Now let's start with 2023 as our baseline, which we're expecting will shake out at around $2 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
在投影片 10 上,我們希望提供各個部分背後的一些細節,這些細節將有助於彌合與 2024 年的差距。現在讓我們以 2023 年為基準,預計調整後 EBITDA 將達到 20 億美元左右。
Moving from left to right, let's first layer in the $155 million to $210 million of incremental EBITDA from our strategic projects. And where we fall in that range is largely dependent on the exact timing of the start-up. Next, we are implementing roughly $100 million of cost benefits focused primarily on fixed cost reductions within the North American Flat-Rolled segment. And finally, we anticipate certain headwinds, primarily from foreign exchange impacts and lower steel prices based on average consensus sell-side estimates of about $750 per ton HRC in 2024. That's partially offset by tailwinds from raw material costs. And some of those impacts reflect -- is reflected in the all other bucket of $300 million.
從左到右,我們先來看看戰略項目帶來的 1.55 億至 2.1 億美元的增量 EBITDA。我們在這個範圍內的位置很大程度上取決於啟動的確切時間。接下來,我們將實施約 1 億美元的成本效益,主要專注於北美扁材軋材領域的固定成本削減。最後,我們預計會出現一些不利因素,主要是外匯影響和鋼材價格下跌(基於賣方對 2024 年熱軋捲的平均共識估計約為每噸 750 美元)。這部分被原材料成本的有利因素所抵消。其中一些影響反映在 3 億美元的所有其他部分。
Taken together, we feel comfortable with projecting at least a similar level of EBITDA performance in 2024 compared to 2023. Now it's worth spending a few minutes on the strategic project contributions in 2024 on Slide 11 that together make up the $155 million to $210 million range. We believe the contributions from these projects in 2024 remain underappreciated in many of the analyst models.
綜上所述,我們認為2024 年的EBITDA 表現至少與2023 年的水準相似。現在值得花幾分鐘時間了解幻燈片11 上2024 年的策略專案貢獻,這些貢獻總共構成1.55 億美元至2.1 億美元的範圍。我們認為,在許多分析師模型中,2024 年這些專案的貢獻仍然沒有被充分重視。
Let's start with the Gary Pig machine. As you may remember, this came online under budget and ahead of schedule in Q4 2022. Using pig iron from Gary provides an approximate $50 per ton cost advantage relative to third-party purchases. We expect to see the full $30 million of EBITDA benefit next year.
讓我們從加里豬機器開始。您可能還記得,該專案於 2022 年第四季在預算範圍內提前上線。相對於第三方採購,使用 Gary 生鐵可提供每噸約 50 美元的成本優勢。我們預計明年將獲得 3000 萬美元的 EBITDA 收益。
Moving to the NGO line, we expect to deliver a $60 million EBITDA uplift in 2024 on our way to the full $140 million EBITDA benefit in 2026 as we ramp up and optimize product mix. On our dual-coating line or CGL2, it's on track for start-up in the second half of 2024. Depending on the exact timing of that start-up, we are anticipating an incremental $10 million to $15 million of EBITDA.
轉向非政府組織領域,隨著我們擴大和優化產品組合,我們預計 2024 年 EBITDA 將增加 6,000 萬美元,並在 2026 年實現 1.4 億美元的 EBITDA 收益。我們的雙塗層生產線或 CGL2 預計將在 2024 年下半年啟動。根據啟動的具體時間,我們預計 EBITDA 將增加 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。
And finally, BR2. Depending on the exact timing of the start-up in the back half of the year, we're expecting to deliver an additional $75 million to $125 million of EBITDA that we did not have in 2023.
最後,BR2。根據今年下半年初創公司的具體時間,我們預計將額外提供 7,500 萬至 1.25 億美元的 EBITDA,這是 2023 年沒有的。
We wanted to provide a segment view for 2024 on Slide 12. Starting off with the North American Flat-Rolled business, we believe our Flat-Rolled segment can deliver approximately $1 billion of EBITDA in 2024. That's in line with the $1 billion or so we believe through cycle looks like for this segment when you consider the impact of recent investments and improvements we've made over the last few years.
我們希望在投影片12 上提供2024 年的細分市場視圖。從北美扁材業務開始,我們相信我們的扁材業務可以在2024 年實現約10 億美元的EBITDA。這與10 億美元左右的預期是一致的我們相信,當你考慮到最近投資和過去幾年我們所做的改進的影響時,這個細分市場的整個週期看起來是這樣的。
We've talked a lot about the value being generated in our Mini Mill segment, and we think it's only going to keep getting better. We expect 2024 adjusted EBITDA in the neighborhood of $600 million, on its way to a projected $1.3 billion of EBITDA in 2026 as Big River 2 hits run rate.
我們已經談論了很多關於我們的小型工廠部門所產生的價值,我們認為它只會不斷變得更好。我們預計 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 約為 6 億美元,隨著 Big River 2 達到運行率,預計 2026 年 EBITDA 將達到 13 億美元。
We've actioned cost savings in Europe, which together with expected energy tailwinds, should deliver about $100 million of EBITDA in 2024, offsetting impacts from a topline that's going to continue to be challenged and from an extended supply chain.
我們在歐洲採取了成本節約行動,加上預期的能源順風,預計到 2024 年將帶來約 1 億美元的 EBITDA,抵消將繼續面臨挑戰的營收和延伸供應鏈的影響。
And finally, Tubular, a true transformation. What was recently a segment that was inconsistent and vulnerable to commodity cycles is now generating material and resilient EBITDA. We've seen Tubular benefit from a structural improvement in the cost structure, in-sourced rounds production and proprietary connections and a continued strong commercial backdrop. Our current estimates for 2024 will see Tubular contribute about $300 million of EBITDA.
最後,管狀,真正的轉變。最近不穩定且易受商品週期影響的細分市場現在正在產生實質且有彈性的 EBITDA。我們看到 Tubular 受益於成本結構的結構性改善、內源輪生產和專有連接以及持續強大的商業背景。我們目前預計 2024 年 Tubular 將貢獻約 3 億美元的 EBITDA。
Let's take a look at the free cash flow profile on Slide 13. Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 10 years. Our annual average free cash flow generation has gone from essentially breakeven in the 2015 to 2019 period to what we estimate could average about $1 billion in the 2021 to 2024 time frame. Again, as you consider what is driving our free cash flow outlook, it's 3 things: the decline in our strategic CapEx requirements, the ramp-up of our strategic projects and the decrease in capital intensity of our transformed footprint.
讓我們來看看幻燈片 13 上的自由現金流狀況。我們的自由現金流狀況在過去 10 年中發生了根本性變化。我們的年平均自由現金流產生量已從 2015 年至 2019 年期間的基本損益平衡,上升到我們估計的 2021 年至 2024 年期間的平均約 10 億美元。同樣,當您考慮推動我們自由現金流前景的因素時,有三件事:我們的策略資本支出要求的下降、我們策略項目的增加以及我們轉型足跡的資本密集度的下降。
As you can see on Slide 14, this has afforded us the flexibility to strengthen our balance sheet, invest in our strategy and return capital to stockholders, checking the box on each of our capital allocation priorities. As we discussed earlier, our balance sheet is, as I like to say, strong as steel. We're advancing our strategic projects, and we have maintained our quarterly dividend. And while our buyback program is currently on a pause, we will continue to assess capital returns as appropriate given the business will continue to generate excess cash.
正如您在投影片 14 中看到的,這使我們能夠靈活地加強我們的資產負債表、投資於我們的策略並向股東返還資本,勾選我們每個資本分配優先事項的方框。正如我們之前討論的那樣,正如我想說的那樣,我們的資產負債表堅如鋼鐵。我們正在推進我們的戰略項目,並且我們維持了季度股息。雖然我們的回購計畫目前處於暫停狀態,但鑑於該業務將繼續產生過剩現金,我們將繼續酌情評估資本回報。
I'll wrap up with our current view of the fourth quarter. Pricing across the segments will be a headwind in the quarter, and we expect sequentially lower EBITDA in the fourth quarter versus the third. We expect a sequential decline in Flat-Rolled segment EBITDA, reflecting lower pricing and volumes. This is due in part to lower spot prices and the decreased volumes and associated costs from planned maintenance that's occurring in the fourth quarter.
我將總結我們目前對第四季的看法。各細分市場的定價將成為本季的阻力,我們預期第四季的 EBITDA 將比第三季連續下降。我們預期扁平材部門的 EBITDA 將連續下降,反映出價格和銷售量的下降。這在一定程度上是由於現貨價格下降以及第四季度計劃維護導致的銷售和相關成本下降。
In the Mini Mill segment, we expect lower steel prices and a planned maintenance outage to impact fourth quarter results, driving lower sequential EBITDA. These items are expected to be partially offset from lower metallics costs.
在小型鋼廠領域,我們預計鋼材價格下跌和計劃中的維護停電將影響第四季度的業績,從而導致 EBITDA 下降。預計這些項目將被較低的金屬成本部分抵消。
In Europe, we expect Q4 EBITDA to be consistent with Q3 performance as we expect lower raw material costs and the absence of planned outage spending to broadly offset pricing headwinds during the quarter. And finally, we also expect sequentially lower EBITDA at our Tubular operations. That reflects decreased average selling prices, partially offset by shipments returning to more normalized levels. Taken together, we expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $200 million and $250 million.
在歐洲,我們預計第四季度的 EBITDA 將與第三季度的業績保持一致,因為我們預計原材料成本下降以及沒有計劃的停電支出將在很大程度上抵消本季的定價阻力。最後,我們也預期管狀業務的 EBITDA 會持續下降。這反映出平均售價下降,但部分被出貨量恢復到更正常化的水平所抵消。總的來說,我們預計第四季度調整後 EBITDA 將在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。
Now before I turn it back to Dave, I do want to invite you to take a look at refreshed slides we've included in the appendix of this presentation on our website. The analysis includes detailed assumptions on pricing and product mix information and a bottoms-up cost breakdown for our integrated segments and the Mini Mill business. And of course, you can always reach out to the Investor Relations team with any questions you may have.
現在,在我將其返回給戴夫之前,我確實想邀請您查看我們網站上本簡報附錄中包含的更新幻燈片。該分析包括對定價和產品組合資訊的詳細假設,以及我們綜合部門和小型工廠業務的自下而上的成本細分。當然,如果您有任何疑問,您可以隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。
So with that, I'll turn it back to Dave before we take your Q&A. Dave?
因此,在我們接受您的問答之前,我會將其轉回給戴夫。戴夫?
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Jess. Before we move to Q&A, I'd like to thank the stockholders for the opportunity to provide an update on the strategic alternatives review process. We are flattered and excited by the robust interest in U.S. Steel and especially excited for our stockholders. But we have provided all of the information we are going to give. We kindly ask that you keep your questions focused on our operational and financial performance, which we will be more than happy to discuss.
謝謝,傑西。在我們進行問答之前,我要感謝股東給我機會提供有關策略替代方案審查流程的最新資訊。我們對美國鋼鐵公司的濃厚興趣感到受寵若驚和興奮,尤其為我們的股東感到興奮。但我們已經提供了我們將要提供的所有資訊。我們懇請您將問題集中在我們的營運和財務表現上,我們將非常樂意討論。
Kevin, let's open up the line for Q&A.
凱文,讓我們打開問答線。
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Okay. Thank you, Dave. And of course, as many of you know, we typically begin our calls with a question submitted from our retail and institutional investors platform, Say Technologies. But today, we believe we've adequately addressed these in our prepared remarks. So I will now ask the operator to open the line for questions.
好的。謝謝你,戴夫。當然,正如你們許多人所知,我們通常會從我們的散戶和機構投資者平台 Say Technologies 提交的問題開始我們的電話會議。但今天,我們相信我們已經在準備好的發言中充分討論了這些問題。所以我現在請接線生打開電話詢問問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And we'll proceed with our first question on the line from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.
(操作員說明)我們將繼續回答來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森 (Bill Peterson) 提出的第一個問題。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
Interesting you're putting out the '24 sort of illustrative guidance on EBITDA. I just want to clarify, you're using $750, I guess, HRC just to make sure. And then also, can you give a little bit more detail on the underlying assumptions around input costs, energy, labor or inflation or any other things on the cost side?
有趣的是,您發布了 24 世紀 EBITDA 的說明性指南。我只是想澄清一下,我猜你用的是 750 美元,HRC 只是為了確定。另外,您能否更詳細地介紹有關投入成本、能源、勞動力或通貨膨脹或成本方面的任何其他因素的基本假設?
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Bill, so we are using $750, that's right, I'll start there. And then I'll give a little bit of color behind both NAFR and the Mini Mill segment. A couple of things, so first off, clearly, that $750 HRC is going to have some sensitivity around it, right, just given that 30% of our shipments are sold on fixed-price contracts. And our market-based contracts, particularly the quarterly ones, are going to exhibit a little less volatility than what we would experience in spot price movements. So that plays through some of our estimates for the $1 billion that we're expecting for NAFR.
比爾,我們用的是 750 美元,是的,我就從這裡開始。然後我將對 NAFR 和小型工廠部分進行一些介紹。有幾件事,首先,很明顯,750 美元的 HRC 會有一些敏感性,對吧,考慮到我們 30% 的出貨量是透過固定價格合約出售的。我們基於市場的合約,尤其是季度合約,其波動性將比我們在現貨價格變動中所經歷的波動要小一些。因此,這反映了我們對 NAFR 10 億美元的預期。
We do believe that we will see a tailwind in coal costs, right? So 2024 coal costs are expected to be a tailwind when you think about we sort of start off with a lower cost base than the competition in coal. And we have a competitive advantage in our coal blending abilities, right? So when we put that together, and we're looking out across commodity prices, we believe that's going to be a benefit in that number. We also believe raw materials, we're not going to go into much more detail by commodity, but raw materials as a whole will be a tailwind for us in the year as well.
我們確實相信煤炭成本將會上漲,對嗎?因此,當你想到我們一開始的成本基礎比煤炭競爭對手更低時,預計 2024 年煤炭成本將是一個順風車。我們的配煤能力也有競爭優勢,對嗎?因此,當我們將其放在一起並關注大宗商品價格時,我們相信這將是這個數字的好處。我們也相信原料,我們不會按商品詳細介紹,但原材料作為一個整體也將成為我們今年的推動力。
And then for NAFR, that $100 million of cost benefits, right, that annualized number that we're seeing in 2024 is a significant driver as well. As far as Big River, right, in terms of the Mini Mill, we do see an increase in the shipments that are expected, particularly when you think about the impact of the additional lines, right, the NGO line add about 100,000 tons and additional shipments from the CGL2 and Big River depending on the timing of when those get started.
對 NAFR 來說,1 億美元的成本效益,我們在 2024 年看到的年化數字也是一個重要的驅動因素。就Big River(右)而言,就Mini Mill 而言,我們確實看到了預期的出貨量增加,特別是當你考慮到額外生產線(右)的影響時,NGO 生產線增加了約10 萬噸,另外CGL2 和 Big River 的出貨量取決於這些項目開始的時間。
We do also see better product mix as we think about the value-added benefit to the portfolio in bringing those lines up and running, right, NGO and CGL specifically. We do also see additional benefit in the Mini Mill, and that's playing through that $600 million number from the continued benefit coming out of Gary Pig within the metallics cost.
當我們考慮啟動和運行這些產品線(特別是 NGO 和 CGL)時為產品組合帶來的增值效益時,我們確實看到了更好的產品組合。我們確實也看到了迷你工廠的額外收益,這得益於 Gary Pig 在金屬成本方面的持續收益,這就是 6 億美元的數字。
So I think that gives a high level of probably some of the biggest puts and takes within those numbers. If there's something more specific, Bill, if you'd ask a second question.
因此,我認為這可能給出了這些數字中一些最大的看跌期權和索取金額的高水準。如果有更具體的事情,比爾,如果你想問第二個問題。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
Yes, no, that's a good overview. Wanted to ask about, I guess, what you're looking for in terms of a market environment to turn grants to be -- back on. I mean we've seen prices improve here in recent weeks. But what are the kind of signposts or guideposts you're looking at before you turn that asset back on?
是的,不,這是一個很好的概述。我想問一下,您在市場環境方面正在尋找什麼來重新啟動贈款。我的意思是,最近幾週我們看到這裡的價格有所上漲。但是,在重新啟動該資產之前,您正在查看什麼樣的路標或指路標呢?
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Yes, maybe I'll just make -- this is Dave. Just to make a few comments, then Jess, I'll turn it to you. The key for us is we got to be nimble and respond to whatever the market dynamics are. And certainly, the update we've heard from the UAW and Ford is clearly a positive sign. But negotiations with Stellantis and General Motors remain outstanding. It's clearly something we're watching closely as the days go by. And maybe, Jess, you just give a little more color, if you could.
是的,也許我會說——這是戴夫。只是想發表一些評論,然後傑西,我會把它轉給你。對我們來說,關鍵在於我們必須靈活應對任何市場動態。當然,我們從 UAW 和福特那裡聽到的最新消息顯然是一個積極的信號。但與 Stellantis 和通用汽車的談判仍懸而未決。隨著時間的推移,這顯然是我們密切關注的事情。傑西,如果可以的話,也許你可以多一點色彩。
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Sure, Dave. Thank you. So clearly, as Dave just mentioned, it's a positive outcome to see the settling of the strike between Ford and the UAW. But we are still watching for both Stellantis and GM to see what happens, right? Auto makes up about 30% of the Flat-Rolled segment. And so while we also have exposure to other transplants, which have not been impacted, we did take the impact of the strike into consideration on the decision to temporarily idle Granite City.
當然,戴夫。謝謝。很明顯,正如戴夫剛才提到的,福特和美國汽車工人聯合會之間的罷工得到解決是一個積極的結果。但我們仍在觀察 Stellantis 和 GM 的表現,看看會發生什麼,對吧?汽車佔扁材市場的 30% 左右。因此,雖然我們也接觸到其他沒有受到影響的移植,但我們在決定暫時閒置花崗岩城時確實考慮到了罷工的影響。
So as we look through the quarter, we're really going to focus on the order book, right, and ultimately make a decision on whether or not we see that order book activity reaccelerate and use that as the guide to decide on making the most efficient use of the footprint and then get to ultimately whether or not we decide to turn Granite City back on. It's just -- it's too early at this point to be able to give an update on that.
因此,當我們回顧本季時,我們確實將重點放在訂單簿,對吧,並最終決定我們是否看到訂單簿活動重新加速,並將其作為決定最大化收益的指南。有效利用足跡,然後最終決定我們是否決定重新開放花崗岩城。只是——現在提供最新情況還為時過早。
Operator
Operator
And we'll proceed with our next question on the line. It is from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi.
我們將繼續討論下一個問題。它來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking 家族。
Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector
Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector
So I guess, first question on Big River, the new mill. One that was announced, I think you guys said that those -- that that would not necessarily represent incremental tons into the marketplace. As we approach the start-up of that mill next year, is that still the strategy? Or will you take more of a market-based approach and see how demand is?
所以我想,第一個問題是關於大河的新工廠。我想你們已經宣布了這一點——這並不一定代表市場的增量。當我們明年即將啟動工廠時,這仍然是我們的策略嗎?或者您會採取更多基於市場的方法來了解需求如何?
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Well, I'd say, yes, Alex. Big River is progressing well. And obviously, this is the driver to incremental EBITDA in 2024. And I think that's one of the reasons that we focused on that today with Jess providing additional color. But the opportunity to align the market on the tremendous value is obviously going to be happening next year. We're tracking towards second half 2024 start-up, and we're going to be generating EBITDA, of course, next year.
好吧,我會說,是的,亞歷克斯。大河進展順利。顯然,這是 2024 年 EBITDA 增量的驅動力。我認為這就是我們今天關注這一點的原因之一,Jess 提供了額外的色彩。但讓市場適應巨大價值的機會顯然將在明年出現。我們預計 2024 年下半年啟動,當然,我們將在明年產生 EBITDA。
Jess, I think you got maybe some more to say on that.
傑西,我想你對此可能還有更多話要說。
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Yes, I think it's similar to -- as you think about the footprint and the impact on incremental volumes, I think it's a similar conversation as we just had for Granite City, which is we're going to look at the order book, right? We're going to make sure that we're always balanced in terms of the way we think about our capacity with our footprint.
是的,我認為這類似於——當你考慮足跡和對增量的影響時,我認為這與我們剛剛針對花崗岩城進行的對話類似,我們將查看訂單簿,對吧?我們將確保我們在考慮產能和足跡方面始終保持平衡。
Now we're not going beyond 2024 today. So as we make decisions in the future, right, it's too early to be able to talk about any other changes to the footprint as we bring Big River 2 online and we start to look at the volumes that we expect will come into the market from BR2 specifically in 2024, right? We're really kind of limiting our conversation today to what we see, the level of visibility we have for 2024. But obviously, those decisions are real-time ones that we make as far as how to best align our footprint with what we're seeing across the market, and we'll continue to do that.
現在我們不會超越 2024 年。因此,當我們在未來做出決定時,現在談論對足蹟的任何其他變化還為時過早,因為我們將 Big River 2 上線,並且我們開始考慮我們預計將進入市場的數量。BR2 具體是在 2024年,對吧?我們今天的談話實際上僅限於我們所看到的、我們對2024 年的可見性水平。但顯然,這些決定是我們實時做出的,涉及如何最好地使我們的足跡與我們的目標保持一致。我們正在關注整個市場,我們將繼續這樣做。
Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector
Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector
Okay. And then a follow-up. I have in my notes that all the strategic CapEx is done in 2024, and there's no carryover into 2025. Is that correct?
好的。然後是後續行動。我在筆記中提到,所有策略資本支出均在 2024 年完成,並且不會結轉至 2025 年。這是正確的嗎?
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
There's a little bit of timing. So right now, we're looking at, let's call it, maybe $50 million to $100 million of some cash outlay, not commitments, cash outlay that would flow into 2025, but nothing material. The bulk of it -- I mean, almost all of it really is going to be completed by 2024.
有一點點時機。所以現在,我們正在考慮,也許是 5,000 萬到 1 億美元的現金支出,而不是承諾,現金支出將流入 2025 年,但沒有什麼實質的。其中大部分——我的意思是,幾乎全部都將在 2024 年完成。
Operator
Operator
We'll get our next question on the line from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
我們將透過摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴 (Carlos De Alba) 在線詢問我們的下一個問題。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Just we saw news this morning that U.S. Steel is increasing coal prices or oil flat prices by about $100 per ton. Just wanted to maybe -- if you could confirm this or what color can you offer? What you see in the marketplace that supports this decision if indeed you're going ahead with it?
就在今天早上我們看到消息指出美國鋼鐵公司將煤炭或石油價格上漲約每噸100美元。只是想也許 - 您是否可以確認這一點或您可以提供什麼顏色?如果您確實要繼續執行此決定,那麼您在市場上看到的是什麼支持這個決定?
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
I'd say, yes, I confirm that, of course. And obviously, we got a full order book for this quarter. So a lot of the price increases that will come will likely show up in the first quarter of next year. But we're seeing a lot of different drivers across our 4 operating segments. And maybe, Kevin, I'll ask you just to go through each one of these real quickly here to give them a sense of what those drivers are.
我會說,是的,我當然確認這一點。顯然,本季我們收到了完整的訂單。因此,大部分價格上漲可能會在明年第一季出現。但我們在 4 個營運部門中看到了許多不同的驅動因素。凱文,也許我會請你快速瀏覽一下其中的每一個,讓他們了解這些驅動因素是什麼。
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Yes. Thanks, Dave. Happy to do that.
是的。謝謝,戴夫。很高興這樣做。
So as Dave mentioned, we were out with a $100 a ton price increase earlier this week. We believe it's very much supported by the strength that we're seeing in the order book and the continued momentum that continues to be built here as we conclude calendar year 2024. So you think about automotive, we know it's been impacted by UAW work stoppage, but hopefully, with some light at the end of the tunnel, we think that will rectify itself in the short term and will continue to support demand through our automotive portfolio.
正如 Dave 所提到的,本週早些時候我們決定將價格上漲 100 美元/噸。我們相信,我們在訂單簿中看到的強勁勢頭以及在 2024 年結束時繼續建立的持續勢頭在很大程度上支持了這一點。所以你想到汽車業,我們知道它受到了 UAW 停工的影響但希望,隨著隧道盡頭的曙光,我們認為這種情況會在短期內自我糾正,並將繼續透過我們的汽車產品組合來支持需求。
We have a unique and diverse end-market exposure through our product portfolio. So we benefited from increase in inquiries and order activity through line pipe and energy markets. Appliance sector remains strong, on track to achieve its third best year ever in appliances. Construction has been stable and service center activity, I think from our vantage point, is beginning to increase, and we're seeing higher levels of order activity in the fourth quarter. So with inventories low and continued strong demand through our diverse end markets, we think the pricing momentum is real and certainly excited about the increase that we announced this week.
透過我們的產品組合,我們擁有獨特且多樣化的終端市場。因此,我們受益於管道和能源市場詢價和訂單活動的增加。家電產業依然強勁,有望實現家電產業有史以來的第三個最佳年份。我認為從我們的角度來看,建設一直穩定,服務中心活動開始增加,我們看到第四季度的訂單活動水平更高。因此,由於庫存較低且我們多元化的終端市場需求持續強勁,我們認為定價勢頭是真實的,並且對我們本周宣布的漲價肯定感到興奮。
In Europe, we do expect higher volumes versus the third quarter. We have all 3 blast furnaces operating for the quarter. We did have a 2-month planned outage in Europe. So while demand remains sluggish is probably how we would call it, we still will be in a position to run all 3 blast furnaces.
在歐洲,我們確實預計銷量將較第三季增加。本季我們的所有 3 座高爐均在運作。我們確實在歐洲計劃了兩個月的停電。因此,儘管我們可能會這樣稱呼需求仍然低迷,但我們仍然能夠運行所有 3 座高爐。
And then Tubular, oil and gas markets are improving. They remain quite strong, and we've seen rig counts tick up. Imports have declined throughout -- from peak levels, but still remain obviously elevated. And with reduced inventories in the system, we see certainly improved Q4 shipments. So all in all, I think we're starting to see a positive momentum continue to be built, and we expect that to begin to flow through in Q4 and put us in a very good position to start 2024.
然後管狀、石油和天然氣市場正在改善。它們仍然相當強勁,而且我們看到鑽孔機數量增加。進口量自峰值水平以來一直有所下降,但仍明顯保持在較高水平。隨著系統庫存的減少,我們看到第四季的出貨量肯定有所改善。總而言之,我認為我們開始看到積極的勢頭繼續形成,我們預計這種勢頭將在第四季度開始顯現,並使我們在 2024 年開始時處於非常有利的位置。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
And then just another question. Given that you are well ahead or well advanced in your transformation and with your capital projects on time and on budget, is there any timing as to when would you make a decision on whether to increase the dividend or buybacks and/or establish a capital allocation framework that either links returns to shareholders or money -- cash flows to shareholders to EBITDA minus sustaining CapEx or free cash flow or some sort of that metric?
然後還有一個問題。鑑於您在轉型方面處於領先地位,並且您的資本項目按時按預算完成,您是否有時間決定是否增加股息或回購和/或建立資本分配將回報與股東或金錢聯繫起來的框架——股東現金流除EBITDA 減去維持資本支出或自由現金流或某種指標?
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Carlos, you've seen our capital allocation process, if you will, and the priority is for cash, and we're going to be staying with that. But Jess, maybe you talk a little bit more specifically about the dividend question.
是的。卡洛斯,如果您願意的話,您已經看到了我們的資本分配流程,並且優先考慮的是現金,我們將堅持這一點。但是傑西,也許你能更具體地談談股息問題。
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Sure. Sure, absolutely. Well, as I mentioned in prepared remarks, I mean, as we continue with the strategic alternatives review process, right, it's not that we aren't prioritizing our capital allocation framework. I mean on the contrary, right, we've been checking boxes across those priorities as we manage the business every day. But as far as what's next, right, that's a conversation that if and when appropriate, we would have with our Board, right?
當然。當然,絕對。好吧,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我的意思是,隨著我們繼續進行戰略替代方案審查流程,對吧,這並不是說我們沒有優先考慮我們的資本配置框架。我的意思是,相反,我們在每天管理業務時一直在檢查這些優先事項。但就下一步而言,如果合適的話,我們會與董事會進行對話,對吧?
Right now, the focus is on completing a fair and adequate process. The Board is fully committed to and engaged in that process. And as the conversation on capital allocation and priorities with dividend and buybacks will be something we'll have, again, if and when appropriate. So I appreciate the question.
目前,重點是完成公平、充分的流程。董事會完全致力於並參與此過程。如果適當的話,我們將再次就資本配置和股息和回購優先事項進行對話。所以我很欣賞這個問題。
It's clear that as we think about where we are in, to your point, the Best for All process, right, there is a tremendous free cash flow unlock that's coming for us, as Dave says, as we get to the other side of the mountain on CapEx, right? So clearly, we are focused on being the best stewards of that cash, and we'll have conversations as appropriate on what to do with that cash.
很明顯,當我們思考我們所處的位置時,正如戴夫所說,當我們到達世界的另一邊時,我們將迎來巨大的自由現金流釋放。資本支出上的山,對吧?很明顯,我們致力於成為這筆現金的最佳管理者,並且我們將酌情就如何處理這些現金進行對話。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
We're focused on very clearly maximizing stockholder value, and the strategic process has put us in a really good place for unleashing a lot of value. And you heard Jess's remarks about the stock buyback program was delayed, frankly, for confidentiality reasons, right, because we have lots of information on what's going on here. So we can't actually do that program. So we've got to get through this, obviously. And you can count on us in this environment. The Board will make a great decision to maximize stockholder value. Because we -- in fact, every time we meet on this, we talk about our jobs or our fiduciary duties to maximize stockholder value within the code of conduct, our Steel principles. So we're committed to doing that, and then we can talk about some of these other issues. But our priorities are getting through this strategic alternative process and maximizing that value.
我們非常明確地專注於股東價值最大化,而策略流程使我們處於釋放大量價值的非常好的位置。你聽說傑西關於股票回購計劃的言論被推遲了,坦白說,出於保密原因,對吧,因為我們有很多關於這裡發生的事情的資訊。所以我們實際上無法執行該程式。所以顯然我們必須解決這個問題。在這種環境下您可以信賴我們。董事會將做出重大決定,以實現股東價值最大化。因為我們——事實上,每次我們開會討論這個問題時,我們都會談論我們的工作或我們的信託責任,以在行為準則和我們的鋼鐵原則範圍內實現股東價值最大化。所以我們致力於這樣做,然後我們可以討論其中一些其他問題。但我們的首要任務是完成此策略替代流程並最大化該價值。
Operator
Operator
We'll proceed with our next question on the line is from Tristan Gresser from Exane BNP Paribas.
我們將繼續回答來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Tristan Gresser 提出的下一個問題。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
The first one is on Europe. It looks like you operate full again despite the poor market conditions. So if I understood correctly, you don't anticipate capacity cuts there and maybe shutting down the furnace like last year. And also, you guide for stable EBITDA quarter-on-quarter, but if I look at spot margins there, demand, all the indicators are pretty negative. So why is it not as bad as last year? And why your message is a bit more constructive this year versus last year? That's my first question.
第一個是關於歐洲的。儘管市場狀況不佳,但看起來您又恢復了滿載運轉。因此,如果我理解正確的話,你預計不會像去年那樣削減產能,甚至可能關閉熔爐。而且,您指導季度環比穩定的 EBITDA,但如果我看看那裡的現貨利潤率、需求,所有指標都相當負面。那為什麼沒有去年那麼糟呢?為什麼你今年的資訊比去年更有建設性?這是我的第一個問題。
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Tristan, this is Kevin. If we look at the fourth quarter for Europe, you're right, we're kind of guiding to a flat quarter-over-quarter level of performance. There are some moving pieces, obviously, that uniquely impact the third quarter, and then we'll really start to reverse themselves in the fourth quarter, and that's being some of the significant outage work that was done in 3Q.
特里斯坦,這是凱文。如果我們看看歐洲第四季度的情況,你是對的,我們的指導方針是季度環比持平的業績水平。顯然,有一些變化對第三季度產生獨特的影響,然後我們將在第四季度真正開始扭轉局面,這就是第三季完成的一些重大停運工作。
We do expect to have an order book that supports 3 blast furnaces worth of production. And we'll see that really generate sequentially higher shipments in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. Order of magnitude, maybe somewhere between 30,000 and 40,000 tons quarter-over-quarter of incremental volumes.
我們確實希望訂單簿能夠支援 3 個高爐的生產。我們將看到第四季的出貨量確實比第三季更高。數量級上,季度增量可能在 30,000 至 40,000 噸之間。
We are seeing proceeds soften, as you mentioned, in the fourth quarter. But with our continued focus on costs, some of the operating efficiencies that we will be able to generate in the fourth quarter into raw material tailwinds, we think the business will be in a position in Slovakia to deliver stable EBITDA quarter-on-quarter.
正如您所提到的,我們看到第四季的收益疲軟。但隨著我們繼續關注成本,我們將能夠在第四季度將一些營運效率轉化為原材料的推動力,我們認為斯洛伐克的業務將能夠按季度提供穩定的 EBITDA。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
There's no doubt Europe is challenged where we are today. But just keep in mind also that this business has been extraordinarily well run. These guys know how to run the operations very, very well. This last year, I think the EU steel demand is expected to fall 5%, and it's more like expected to rebound 6%. So how all of that transfers through our numbers into this next year, we'll have to see. But it is not as strong, frankly, as what it has been in the past. It's a challenged business for sure in the short term.
毫無疑問,歐洲今天面臨挑戰。但請記住,這項業務的經營狀況非常好。這些人非常非常了解如何運作。去年,我認為歐盟鋼鐵需求預計將下降 5%,而預計將反彈 6%。因此,所有這些將如何透過我們的數據轉移到明年,我們將拭目以待。但坦白說,它並不像過去那麼強大。短期內這肯定是一項充滿挑戰的業務。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
All right. That's clear and actually it brings me to a quick follow-up there for next year. I mean the $100 million EBITDA for the business is pretty much what the COVID levels. I mean, expectations are we would see some rebound in demand at least upfront demand. So is there something in the business that is structurally different? Or are you just being really conservative on how the first half of the year will shape out there?
好的。這很清楚,實際上這讓我可以在明年進行快速跟進。我的意思是,該業務 1 億美元的 EBITDA 幾乎相當於新冠疫情期間的水平。我的意思是,預計我們至少會看到需求出現一些反彈,至少是前期需求。那麼,該行業是否存在結構上不同的東西?或者您只是對今年上半年的情況持保守態度?
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
So if we think about performance in 2024 versus 2023, let me speak to some of the favorable changes that we expect to see in this segment. First, energy should be a tailwind for us in 2024 versus 2023. We do expect to see increased shipment volume once again with 3 blast furnaces running throughout the year. Recall, the 2-month outage that we had in the third quarter of this year, plus we did have an idled furnace to start calendar year 2023. So that's a year-on-year change.
因此,如果我們考慮 2024 年與 2023 年的表現,讓我談談我們預計在該領域看到的一些有利變化。首先,與 2023 年相比,2024 年能源應該成為我們的順風車。我們確實預計出貨量將再次增加,3 座高爐全年運作。回想一下,今年第三季我們停電了 2 個月,而且從 2023 年開始我們確實有一台閒置的爐子。所以這是同比變化。
We will see likely some raw material headwinds, whether that's in iron ore pellets using the IODEX kind of as our barometer for costs or with coking coal versus 2023 as well as some higher labor and CO2 costs. But all of that taken together gives us a line of sight to sequentially stable EBITDA as well as FX being flat on a year-over-year basis.
我們可能會看到一些原料逆風,無論是使用 IODEX 作為成本晴雨表的鐵礦球團,還是與 2023 年相比的煉焦煤,以及一些更高的勞動力和二氧化碳成本。但所有這些綜合起來,讓我們看到 EBITDA 連續穩定,外匯同比持平。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
All right. That's fair. And just a quick one on CO2 costs you just mentioned, is that a big hike into next year?
好的。這還算公平。簡單介紹一下您剛才提到的二氧化碳成本,明年是否會大幅增加?
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
It will certainly be a headwind. I don't think we're in a position right now to assess an absolute value, the level of year-on-year change. But you should think about it as a year-on-year headwind.
這肯定會是一個逆風。我認為我們現在無法評估絕對值,即同比變化水平。但你應該將其視為同比逆風。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
All right. That's very clear. And maybe my second question, given that that was all Europe is a bit more on capital allocation and putting the strategic process aside. I think looking for 2025, what would really be the plan after Big River 2 from the point of view of management? Is there a Big River 3 somewhere in the future? It seems that is the strategy that is maximizing shareholder value. Or do you expect some time off in 2025 on growth and pause a bit the growth and reward shareholders a bit more? What kind of is the strategy after Big River 2?
好的。這非常清楚。也許我的第二個問題是,考慮到整個歐洲更專注於資本配置並將戰略過程放在一邊。我想展望2025年,從管理階層的角度來看,《大河2》之後的真正計畫是什麼?未來會有大河3嗎?看來這就是股東價值最大化的策略。或者您預計 2025 年成長會暫停一段時間,暫停成長並多獎勵股東一點嗎?大河2之後的策略是什麼樣的?
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
I have to say you're getting a little greedy on this call. I just gave you 2024. Now listen, we're not going to go that far on this call right now, right? We feel very comfortable with the path we see for 2024. We're very comfortable with talking about what we expect the financial impacts of that are going to look like, but we're not going further than that today.
我不得不說你對這個電話有點貪心了。我剛剛給了你 2024 年。聽著,我們現在不會在這次電話會議上走那麼遠,對吧?我們對 2024 年的前景感到非常滿意。我們很樂意談論我們預期的財務影響,但今天我們不會再進一步。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
That's a good thing we didn't give him any more. He'd be asking for 2026.
這是一件好事,我們不再給他了。他會要求 2026 年。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
No, that's fair. And I appreciate the additional disclosure you provided. That's all from me.
不,這很公平。我感謝您提供的額外披露。這就是我的全部。
Operator
Operator
We'll get to our next question on the line from Gordon Johnson with GLJ Research.
我們將回答 GLJ Research 的 Gordon Johnson 提出的下一個問題。
Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder
Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder
Congrats on the results. Just a quick question for me. I mean a lot of the questions have been asked. So maybe I can ask a couple. So it seems like there's been some inventory built, some purchases made up until now, prices are up. I have heard some concerns from some of the service centers and distributors in the Midwest that you could potentially see a lull in buying given that some of the inventory concerns have been addressed. Have you guys seen any of that? And if not, could you elaborate?
祝賀結果。只是問我一個簡單的問題。我的意思是已經問了很多問題。所以也許我可以問幾個。因此,到目前為止,似乎已經建立了一些庫存,完成了一些採購,價格上漲了。我聽到中西部一些服務中心和經銷商的一些擔憂,鑑於一些庫存問題已經解決,您可能會看到購買平靜。你們有看過這樣的嗎?如果沒有,可以詳細說明一下嗎?
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Yes. Sure, Gordon. This is Kevin. I would say on the inventory side, inventories at service centers were low as we ended the third quarter. I think it was somewhere around 1.9 months of inventory on hand, which is well below the 10-year average. So we think with some resolution to the UAW, better demand picture entering into 2024, that will actually bring some of the buyers off the sidelines and start to see, as we already have, a recovery in order entry rates. So I think we're quite at least optimistic in the near term that some of the uncertainty becomes more resolved and more fully resolved, that will provide some good demand.
是的。當然,戈登。這是凱文.我想說,在庫存方面,截至第三季末,服務中心的庫存很低。我認為現有庫存約為 1.9 個月,遠低於 10 年平均值。因此,我們認為,透過對UAW 做出一些決議,進入2024 年,需求情況會更好,這實際上會讓一些買家不再觀望,並開始看到訂單輸入率的回升,正如我們已經看到的那樣。因此,我認為我們至少在短期內相當樂觀,認為一些不確定性會得到更解決和更全面的解決,這將提供一些良好的需求。
Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder
Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder
One more, if I could. You guys are assuming $750 in 2024 for the guide, but the curve is currently at $850. Could you guys be being a little conservative there?
如果可以的話,再來一張。你們假設 2024 年該指南的價格為 750 美元,但目前的曲線為 850 美元。你們能不能保守一點?
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis
Obviously, Gordon, we wanted to align around a level of expectations that we believe is currently reflected in the market from a sell-side perspective at $750. Obviously, our results will fluctuate as steel prices move. And to the extent -- and just recently, as you pointed out, the forward curve has kicked out significantly. Obviously, we'll be -- continue to be focused on running our operations extremely well having the right commercial strategy in place, whether that's the right mix of end market exposure, the right mix of contract, fixed volumes, index, monthly and spot to optimize results regardless of the pricing environment. So we do see that same momentum that you're seeing, but we didn't necessarily include it in our outlook for 2024 at this juncture.
顯然,戈登,我們希望圍繞我們認為目前從賣方角度反映在市場上的預期水平調整為 750 美元。顯然,我們的業績會隨著鋼材價格的變動而波動。在某種程度上,正如您所指出的,就在最近,遠期曲線已經顯著啟動。顯然,我們將繼續專注於經營我們的業務,制定正確的商業策略,無論是終端市場敞口的正確組合,還是合約、固定交易量、指數、月度和現貨的正確組合。無論定價環境如何,都能優化結果。因此,我們確實看到了與您所看到的相同勢頭,但此時我們不一定將其納入 2024 年的展望中。
But I'll pass it over to Jess if she's got some additional comments.
但如果 Jess 有其他意見,我會轉交給她。
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Just to underscore, we wanted to be helpful in bridging the gap that we saw, and these numbers are still assumptive, right? So from our perspective, if you think about on the slide where we show the walk, right, that's all other $300 million, that's going to move, right? That's going to have the puts and takes of what happens across the market in 2024, both in the topline and within the cost base. So for the level of visibility that we have right now, right, we feel comfortable making clear that we expect 2024 will likely look the same -- in the same ballpark as 2023. But all the puts and takes in the business that we're going to experience are kind of in that bucket, if you will.
是的。只是為了強調,我們希望幫助縮小我們所看到的差距,而這些數字仍然是假設的,對嗎?因此,從我們的角度來看,如果你考慮我們在幻燈片上展示步行的地方,對吧,其他所有 3 億美元都會發生變化,對嗎?這將包括 2024 年整個市場發生的情況,包括收入和成本基礎。因此,就我們目前的可見度水平而言,我們可以放心地明確表示,我們預計 2024 年可能會與 2023 年一樣,大致相同。如果你願意的話,去體驗就在那個桶裡。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll get to our next question on the line from Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)我們將回答來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba 的下一個問題。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
And Dave, so I heard what you said about no comments on the process. I just have one, I'm going to risk it. Any color on the timing? Like no details other than is this a process that the board will be taking very seriously? But is there a sense of will it be completed this year or early next year? That would be extremely helpful.
戴夫,我聽到了你所說的關於不對流程發表評論的說法。我只有一個,我願意冒險。時間上有顏色嗎?除了董事會會非常認真地對待這個過程之外,沒有其他細節嗎?但是否有可能在今年或明年初完成?這將非常有幫助。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Well, Carlos, I just want to make sure you heard my earlier comments that I'd just say we're really not able to provide any further details on the strategic alternative process beyond what's already been said. As I stated earlier, there is a serious interest from many highly credible bidders, right? And it was also said we're very flattered by that interest. Rest assured, we're running a robust, fair and rigorous process. We remain focused on maximizing the stockholder value, and we'll provide updates when it's appropriate, but not before then. And until then, we're just not going to be able to give you additional details.
好吧,卡洛斯,我只是想確保你聽到了我之前的評論,我只是想說,除了已經說過的內容之外,我們確實無法提供有關戰略替代流程的任何進一步細節。正如我之前所說,許多可信度很高的競標者都表現出了濃厚的興趣,對嗎?據說我們對這種興趣感到非常受寵若驚。請放心,我們正在運行一個穩健、公平且嚴格的流程。我們仍然專注於股東價值最大化,我們將在適當的時候提供更新,但不會在此之前。在那之前,我們無法向您提供更多詳細資訊。
Operator
Operator
And that was the final question. I'll turn it back now to -- over back to U.S. Steel CEO, Dave Burritt, for closing comments.
這是最後一個問題。我現在將其轉回美國鋼鐵公司執行長 Dave Burritt 發表結束評論。
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director
Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning and for the discussion. We truly appreciate your interest and engagement with U.S. Steel. Thank you, as always, to our stockholders. We appreciate your feedback as we progress on our strategic alternative process to maximize stockholder value.
感謝大家今天早上加入我們並進行討論。我們衷心感謝您對美國鋼鐵公司的興趣和參與。一如既往地感謝我們的股東。在我們推進策略替代流程以最大化股東價值的過程中,我們感謝您的回饋。
Thank you as well to our customers. We're honored to partner with you and help you fulfill your needs by serving you with the best steel solutions available anywhere. Of course, there wouldn't be so much interest in U.S. Steel if it weren't for the incredible employees we have who are enabling our success every single day. So thank you to the U.S. Steel employees everywhere. We're truly -- you guys are truly the best in the industry and in your hard work, your innovation, your commitment to safety first are taking U.S. Steel to new heights.
也感謝我們的客戶。我們很榮幸與您合作,並透過為您提供世界各地最好的鋼鐵解決方案來幫助您滿足您的需求。當然,如果不是我們每天都在幫助我們成功的優秀員工,人們不會對美國鋼鐵公司產生如此大的興趣。感謝美國鋼鐵公司各地的員工。我們確實——你們確實是業內最優秀的人,你們的辛勤工作、你們的創新以及你們對安全第一的承諾正在將美國鋼鐵公司推向新的高度。
At U.S. Steel, we value each of these stakeholders. We are pleased to deliver differentiated steel solutions that are best for not only people, but for the planet as well. Now let's get back to work safely.
在美國鋼鐵公司,我們重視每一位利害關係人。我們很高興提供差異化的鋼鐵解決方案,這些解決方案不僅對人類有利,而且對地球也有利。現在讓我們安全返回工作崗位吧。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and we ask you please disconnect your lines. Have a good day, everyone.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,請斷開您的線路。祝大家有美好的一天。