美國鋼鐵 (X) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在一項為期四年的新協議中,Steel Dynamics Inc. 將獲得 3 億美元的公司積極醫療費用補償、6400 萬美元的一次性現金紅利以及 10 億美元的資本投資承諾。從財務角度來看,該協議對公司有利,將有助於保持經濟向前發展。

該協議由公司與其代表員工達成,其中包括 3 億美元的公司積極醫療費用抵消、6400 萬美元的一次性現金紅利以及 10 億美元的資本投資承諾。從財務角度來看,該協議對公司有利,將有助於保持經濟向前發展。

該協議是公司強大財務狀況的結果,對公司及其股東來說是積極的。該公司預計到 2024 年其非糧食導向電力設施將實現增長,並看好美國鋼鐵市場的前景。美國鋼鐵公司繼續投資於戰略項目,並在過去兩年中產生了創紀錄的 50 億美元自由現金流。這些資金已用於投資戰略計劃,包括投資其 Gary Works 工廠的生鐵生產。美國鋼鐵公司 2015 年第四季度業績顯示淨虧損 12.2 億美元,或攤薄後每股虧損 6.12 美元。相比之下,2014 年第四季度的淨虧損為 7600 萬美元,或攤薄後每股虧損 0.39 美元。全年,該公司報告淨虧損 24.8 億美元,或攤薄後每股虧損 12.42 美元。相比之下,2014 年全年淨虧損 10.3 億美元,即攤薄後每股虧損 5.27 美元。該公司的歐洲業務受到該地區終端客戶需求減少的影響,延長了典型的年底去庫存週期。這導致了銷售價格,而銷售價格又因該部門對現貨市場的敞口而被放大。烏克蘭衝突的影響繼續給該地區帶來挑戰。更高的能源成本和更昂貴的供應鏈在本季度造成了額外的利潤壓力。

儘管存在這些挑戰,該公司仍在採取措施改善其地位。為了應對增加的需求和改善的訂單,該公司計劃重啟位於 Mon Valley 的 3 號高爐,並讓位於 Gary 的 8 號高爐暫時閒置。預計第一季度扁平軋材的運輸量將增加。通過採取這些措施,該公司希望改善其財務狀況並恢復盈利。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United States Steel Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

    大家早上好,歡迎收看美國鋼鐵公司 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音中。

  • I'll now hand the call over to Kevin Lewis, Vice President, Finance.

    我現在將電話轉交給財務副總裁 Kevin Lewis。

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining our Fourth Quarter and full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me on today's call is U.S. Steel President and CEO, Dave Burritt; Senior Vice President and CFO, Jessica Graziano; and Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer, Rich Fruehauf.

    早上好,感謝您加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。和我一起參加今天電話會議的是美國鋼鐵公司總裁兼首席執行官 Dave Burritt;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jessica Graziano;高級副總裁兼首席戰略和可持續發展官 Rich Fruehauf。

  • This morning, we posted slides to accompany today's prepared remarks. These can be found on the U.S. Steel Investors page under the Events and Presentations section.

    今天早上,我們發布了幻燈片以配合今天準備好的發言。這些可以在“活動和演示”部分下的“美國鋼鐵投資者”頁面上找到。

  • Before we start, let me remind you that some information provided during this call may include forward-looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, and actual future results may vary materially. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued yesterday, along with our remarks today, are made as of today, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold.

    在我們開始之前,讓我提醒您,在本次電話會議中提供的一些信息可能包括基於某些假設的前瞻性陳述,並受到我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響,實際的未來結果可能會有所不同重大。我們昨天發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述以及我們今天的評論都是截至今天發表的,我們不承擔在實際事件發生時更新它們的義務。

  • I would now like to turn the conference call over to U.S. Steel President and CEO, Dave Burritt, who will begin on Slide 4.

    我現在想將電話會議轉交給美國鋼鐵公司總裁兼首席執行官 Dave Burritt,他將從幻燈片 4 開始。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone joining us today. We appreciate your continued support of U.S. Steel. We safely delivered another profitable quarter as we end a strong year of operational, financial and strategic performance and advanced our Best for All strategy. We are pleased but not satisfied, and we are focused on moving faster towards our future.

    謝謝你,凱文,早上好,今天加入我們的每個人。感謝您一直以來對美國鋼鐵公司的支持。我們結束了強勁的運營、財務和戰略業績年度,並推進了我們的 Best for All 戰略,安全地交付了另一個盈利季度。我們很高興但不滿意,我們專注於更快地走向我們的未來。

  • 2023 will be our most transformational year yet as we continue to unlock the stockholder value of our Best for All strategy. In summary, we are bullish, we are confident, we are transitioning to greater stockholder value, we are focused on our competitive advantages and we are delivering on our strategy.

    2023 年將是我們最具變革性的一年,因為我們將繼續釋放 Best for All 戰略的股東價值。總而言之,我們看好,我們有信心,我們正在過渡到更大的股東價值,我們專注於我們的競爭優勢,我們正在實施我們的戰略。

  • I will start my remarks with a recap of the past year. In 2022, we delivered some all-time record performances, best safety and environmental performance in our history; best execution on strategic projects, delivering greater returns that far exceeded the weighted average cost of capital; best cash and liquidity positions of $3.5 billion and $5.9 billion, respectively; best year-end balance sheet ever with 0.2x net adjusted debt to EBITDA; best strategic market volumes; second best adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 billion; and second best free cash flow of $1.8 billion.

    我將從回顧過去一年開始我的發言。 2022 年,我們創造了歷史上的一些歷史記錄、最佳安全和環境績效;戰略項目的最佳執行,提供遠遠超過加權平均資本成本的更高回報;最佳現金和流動性頭寸分別為 35 億美元和 59 億美元;最佳年終資產負債表,調整後淨債務佔 EBITDA 的 0.2 倍;最佳戰略市場容量;第二好的調整後 EBITDA 為 42 億美元;第二好的自由現金流為 18 億美元。

  • We also delivered on a breakthrough collective bargaining agreement with United Steelworkers. Instead of falling in line with other union agreements, we broke pattern from a competitor and took the time to negotiate a fair agreement where our employees continue to do well when the company does well. The agreement truly is best for all, and includes over 4 years $3 billion lower capital commitments versus a competitor, $200 million cost advantage versus a competitor and $300 million of cash benefits.

    我們還與美國鋼鐵工人聯合會達成了一項突破性的集體談判協議。我們沒有與其他工會協議保持一致,而是打破了競爭對手的模式,花時間談判達成一項公平的協議,讓我們的員工在公司表現良好時繼續保持良好狀態。該協議確實對所有人都是最好的,包括 4 年多來比競爭對手少 30 億美元的資本承諾、比競爭對手 2 億美元的成本優勢和 3 億美元的現金收益。

  • The wins of the past year were experienced throughout the enterprise and across our businesses and our ability to perform at our best level so far translated to stockholder value. While steel prices retreated throughout the year, our stock increased in value and performed better versus prior cycles on a relative basis than most of our peer group. That's only the start. And that resiliency is a proof point that our strategy is working. And we remain committed to delivering even better returns for our investors and we focus -- as we focus on the continued execution of our strategy.

    過去一年的勝利體現在整個企業和我們的業務中,我們以迄今為止最好的水平表現的能力轉化為股東價值。雖然鋼鐵價格全年回落,但我們的股票價值上漲,並且相對於我們的大多數同行集團而言,相對於之前的周期表現更好。這僅僅是個開始。這種彈性證明了我們的戰略正在奏效。我們仍然致力於為我們的投資者提供更好的回報,我們專注於 - 因為我們專注於持續執行我們的戰略。

  • We're just getting started. Focused execution starts with safety, and I'm pleased that we achieved another record year of safety performance. Our days away from work, safety performance is industry-leading by a long shot, 18x better than the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics' iron and steel data. Record safety has become a drumbeat at U.S. Steel. 2022 better than 2021. 2021 better than 2020. 2020 better than 2019. As the best in the industry, we expect that drumbeat to carry forward into 2023.

    我們才剛剛開始。重點執行從安全開始,我很高興我們在安全績效方面又創下了新紀錄。我們下班後的日子裡,安全性能遠遠領先於行業,比美國勞工統計局最新的鋼鐵數據好 18 倍。創紀錄的安全性已成為美國鋼鐵公司的鼓點。 2022 好於 2021。2021 好於 2020。2020 好於 2019。作為行業中的佼佼者,我們預計鼓點將延續到 2023 年。

  • Safety results are table stakes for operational excellence. Great safety translates to great operations. Our drumbeat of improvement also continues across other key priorities, including strategic project execution. In spite of inflationary pressures and supply chain delays, I am pleased to report we remain on time and on budget. While others in the industry have not been able to overcome these challenges, we remain confident in our ability to execute our best for all future safely.

    安全結果是卓越運營的籌碼。出色的安全性意味著出色的運營。我們的改進鼓點也在其他關鍵優先事項上繼續,包括戰略項目執行。儘管存在通貨膨脹壓力和供應鏈延誤,但我很高興地報告我們仍按時並在預算內完成。雖然業內其他人未能克服這些挑戰,但我們仍然相信我們有能力為所有人的未來安全地做到最好。

  • You know all of this, but it's worth repeating. We are bullish on U.S. Steel's future. Our future is less cost-intensive, less capital-intensive, less carbon-intensive and enables us to become the best steel competitor as measured by EBITDA multiple improvement in the near term and best customer and stockholder value longer term.

    你知道所有這些,但值得重複。我們看好美國鋼鐵公司的未來。我們的未來是成本密集度較低、資本密集度較低、碳密集度較低,並使我們能夠成為最好的鋼鐵競爭對手,以短期內的 EBITDA 倍數改進和長期最佳客戶和股東價值來衡量。

  • To become the best, we are transforming our business model by expanding our competitive advantages in low-cost iron ore, mini mill steelmaking and best-in-class finishing. We are also generating value through a balanced capital allocation framework, maintaining our strong balance sheet, investing in capabilities that grow our competitive advantages and generate returns in excess of our cost of capital and returning capital to stockholders. And with the added support of continued strong trade enforcement, our path forward to our Best for All strategy is becoming a reality.

    為了成為最好的,我們正在通過擴大我們在低成本鐵礦石、短流程煉鋼和一流精加工方面的競爭優勢來轉變我們的商業模式。我們還通過平衡的資本配置框架創造價值,維持我們強大的資產負債表,投資於增強我們競爭優勢的能力,產生超過資本成本的回報,並將資本返還給股東。在持續強有力的貿易執法的額外支持下,我們實現 Best for All 戰略的道路正在成為現實。

  • So this morning, I want to spend some time talking about that reality, a reality that we are achieving with each quarter of strong performance and strategic execution. And while I know it's easy for many to focus on just the short term, I want to create the drumbeat for our future, a future that is delivering for our customers, our employees, our planet and most importantly, you, our stockholders.

    所以今天早上,我想花點時間談談這個現實,我們通過每個季度的強勁表現和戰略執行來實現的現實。雖然我知道很多人很容易只關注短期,但我想為我們的未來創造鼓點,一個為我們的客戶、我們的員工、我們的星球,最重要的是,你,我們的股東帶來的未來。

  • Let's get into today's discussion on Slide 5. Our Best for All strategy is focused on value creation, ESG transformation and disruptive innovation.

    讓我們進入今天關於幻燈片 5 的討論。我們的 Best for All 戰略專注於價值創造、ESG 轉型和顛覆性創新。

  • The strategy we are executing is delivering our low-cost iron ore and a differentiated metallic strategy; our transition to mini mill steelmaking, which serves as a catalyst to generate increased and resilient free cash flow; and our best-in-class finishing capabilities are crucial to sustainable steel solutions.

    我們正在執行的戰略是提供我們的低成本鐵礦石和差異化金屬戰略;我們向短流程煉鋼的過渡,這是產生增加和有彈性的自由現金流的催化劑;我們一流的精加工能力對於可持續的鋼鐵解決方案至關重要。

  • Finishing assets in Gary Works and PRO-TEC are unmatched today. These solutions align with our customers' priorities and support our bold 2030 and 2050 sustainability goals. Innovation is the name of the game and disruption in the steel industry is inevitable. We intend to innovate to disrupt.

    Gary Works 和 PRO-TEC 的精加工資產在今天是無與倫比的。這些解決方案符合我們客戶的優先事項,並支持我們大膽的 2030 年和 2050 年可持續發展目標。創新是遊戲的名稱,鋼鐵行業的顛覆是不可避免的。我們打算通過創新來顛覆。

  • Steelmaking innovations expected from Big River II should extend our leadership role in producing advanced grades with up to 80% fewer greenhouse gas emissions. We recently brought in innovative expertise to accelerate our strategy execution.

    Big River II 的煉鋼創新有望擴大我們在生產高級鋼種方面的領導地位,溫室氣體排放量最多可減少 80%。我們最近引入了創新的專業知識來加速我們的戰略執行。

  • Christian Gianni joined the company in the fourth quarter as Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer. Christian's extensive background in product development will be key to driving further innovation with and for our customers.

    Christian Gianni 於第四季度加入公司,擔任高級副總裁兼首席技術官。 Christian 在產品開發方面的廣泛背景將是推動我們的客戶進一步創新的關鍵。

  • John Gordon also recently joined U.S. Steel as Senior Vice President, Raw Materials and Sustainable Resources. John is unlocking greater stockholder value from our unique low-cost iron ore competitive advantage. His extensive and diversified mining background make him uniquely suited for leading this core, sustainable competitive strength.

    John Gordon 最近還加入了美國鋼鐵公司,擔任原材料和可持續資源高級副總裁。約翰正在從我們獨特的低成本鐵礦石競爭優勢中釋放更大的股東價值。他廣泛而多元化的礦業背景使他非常適合領導這一核心的、可持續的競爭優勢。

  • Let's start with our low-cost iron ore advantage and metallic strategy. U.S. Steel has been and continues to be the low-cost producer of iron ore in Northern Minnesota. Low-cost iron ore has historically been a competitive advantage as a key component of the supply chain for our integrated blast furnace operations. That value remains today. This advantage will grow our value creation potential as we continue to execute our differentiated metallic strategy in our transforming footprint with state-of-the-art mini mill steelmaking.

    讓我們從我們的低成本鐵礦石優勢和金屬戰略開始。美國鋼鐵公司一直並將繼續是明尼蘇達州北部的低成本鐵礦石生產商。作為我們綜合高爐運營供應鏈的關鍵組成部分,低成本鐵礦石歷來具有競爭優勢。這個價值今天仍然存在。這一優勢將增加我們的價值創造潛力,因為我們將繼續通過最先進的短流程煉鋼在我們的轉型足跡中執行我們的差異化金屬戰略。

  • If the geopolitical events of the past couple of years have taught us anything, it is a strong supply chain secured access to raw materials and production capabilities matter. That is why U.S. Steel is creating value for stockholders by investing in internally sourced pig iron at Gary Works and expanding our capabilities to produce higher grades of pellets at our Keetac operations.

    如果說過去幾年的地緣政治事件對我們有什麼啟示,那就是強大的供應鏈確保獲得原材料和生產能力至關重要。這就是為什麼 U.S. Steel 通過在 Gary Works 投資內部採購的生鐵並擴大我們在 Keetac 工廠生產更高等級球團的能力來為股東創造價值。

  • Our investment in up to 500,000 tons of pig iron production at our Gary Works facility was completed ahead of schedule and on budget, with the first barge of pig iron received at Big River Steel on January 6. My thanks to the construction team at Gary Works for the excellent work and your focus on safety, we had zero recordable injuries in over 185,000 hours worked.

    我們在 Gary Works 工廠投資高達 500,000 噸的生鐵生產在預算內提前完成,1 月 6 日 Big River Steel 收到了第一艘生鐵駁船。感謝 Gary Works 的施工團隊由於出色的工作和您對安全的關注,我們在 185,000 多個工作小時內實現了零可記錄傷害。

  • Safety First was a term invented by U.S. Steel and remains our top priority. Our team runs operations with high quality safely. As the metallics headwinds of the back half of 2022 ease for our mini mill operations, our investment in pig iron will only help to amplify the positive momentum we are experiencing as we enter 2023.

    安全第一是美國鋼鐵公司發明的一個術語,並且仍然是我們的首要任務。我們的團隊安全地進行高質量的操作。隨著 2022 年下半年的金屬逆風對我們的短流程鋼廠業務的影響有所緩解,我們對生鐵的投資只會有助於放大我們在進入 2023 年時所經歷的積極勢頭。

  • The pace of change at U.S. Steel is accelerating, and we have no intention of slowing down. Our ability to invest in capabilities that generate value and buy back our stock is enabled by more resilient levels of free cash flow. We've moved quickly to create a business model that increasingly supports growth and direct returns to stockholders.

    U.S. Steel 的變革步伐正在加快,我們無意放慢腳步。更有彈性的自由現金流使我們能夠投資於產生價值的能力並回購我們的股票。我們迅速採取行動,創建了一種越來越多地支持增長和直接回報股東的商業模式。

  • Next on mini mill steelmaking. As we continue to shift our domestic steelmaking volumes from integrated to electric arc furnace production, we are not only transforming the way we make steel, which is greener and with best capabilities, but we are also transforming the earnings power of steelmaking for our company, delivering higher margins and higher and more resilient free cash flow that's powerful value creation.

    接下來是短流程煉鋼。隨著我們繼續將國內煉鋼量從綜合生產轉移到電弧爐生產,我們不僅在改變我們煉鋼的方式,更環保、性能最好,而且我們也在改變我們公司煉鋼的盈利能力,提供更高的利潤率和更高、更有彈性的自由現金流,這是強大的價值創造。

  • And I'll go as far as say U.S. Steel provides the best opportunity to create improved stockholder value in the sector today. We believe EBITDA multiple expansion is within sight.

    我要說的是,美國鋼鐵公司提供了在當今該行業創造更高股東價值的最佳機會。我們相信 EBITDA 倍數擴張指日可待。

  • In just a few short years, we've created a mini mill road map that we expect will deliver 6 million tons of mini mill capabilities and annual through-cycle EBITDA of $1.3 billion and annual through-cycle free cash flow generation of $1 billion or more. Note that I said through cycle, and those numbers I provided represent earnings power and free cash flow generation that our company has never had before.

    在短短幾年內,我們制定了一個短流程工廠路線圖,我們預計該路線圖將提供 600 萬噸的短流程工廠產能和 13 億美元的年度全週期 EBITDA 以及 10 億美元的年度全週期自由現金流產生或更多的。請注意,我說的是整個週期,我提供的這些數字代表了我們公司以前從未有過的盈利能力和自由現金流產生。

  • It bears repeating that is powerful stockholder value creation.

    值得重複的是,強大的股東價值創造。

  • Now it's up to all of us at U.S. Steel to continue to execute. Our focus is winning today because when we win, all our stockholders win -- stakeholders win, and that includes our customers who are pleased to serve by producing sustainable steel solutions with best-in-class finishing capabilities.

    現在,我們 U.S. Steel 的所有人都要繼續執行。我們今天的重點是獲勝,因為當我們獲勝時,我們所有的股東都會獲勝——利益相關者也會獲勝,其中包括我們的客戶,他們樂於通過生產具有一流精加工能力的可持續鋼鐵解決方案來服務。

  • This year, we expect to complete another important milestone in our Best for All strategy that will expand our offering of sustainable lower greenhouse gas emission steel at Big River. We are on track to bring to market thinner and wider non-grain-oriented electrical steels in the third quarter. These steels will add to our differentiated portfolio of strategic market capabilities by directly supporting the growth in the electrical vehicle market.

    今年,我們預計將完成我們 Best for All 戰略的另一個重要里程碑,該戰略將擴大我們在 Big River 提供的可持續低溫室氣體排放鋼的供應。我們有望在第三季度向市場推出更薄、更寬的非晶粒取向電工鋼。這些鋼材將通過直接支持電動汽車市場的增長,增加我們差異化的戰略市場能力組合。

  • Our investment in electrical steel finishing capabilities is expected to add an additional $140 million of through-cycle earnings power to our business, expand our Big River margins by about 400 basis points and adds another layer of free cash flow from the mini mill segment.

    我們對電工鋼精加工能力的投資預計將為我們的業務增加 1.4 億美元的全週期盈利能力,將我們的 Big River 利潤率擴大約 400 個基點,並增加來自短流程鋼廠部門的另一層自由現金流。

  • At U.S. Steel, our customers are already partnering with us on advanced high-strength steel and verdeX steel. And soon, we will add electrical steel to the portfolio.

    在 U.S. Steel,我們的客戶已經與我們合作開發先進的高強度鋼和 verdeX 鋼。很快,我們將把電工鋼添加到產品組合中。

  • Our customers are reimagining their own sourcing strategies, including our automotive customers. And we are pleased and eager to continue to serve our long-term relationships with them as their needs change. We truly value our customers' partnership.

    我們的客戶正在重新構想他們自己的採購策略,包括我們的汽車客戶。隨著他們需求的變化,我們很高興並渴望繼續與他們建立長期關係。我們真正重視客戶的合作夥伴關係。

  • We captured share for 2023 from those that don't share our customer-first mindset and welcome additional opportunities to best serve customers this year and in the future. So that's our drumbeat for the future. Best iron ore to create a differentiated metallic strategy, best mini mill performance to fuel a free cash flow engine and best-in-class finishing capabilities to deliver our customers the sustainable steel solutions they crave. These investments will deliver long-term value, incremental free cash flow and returns in excess of our cost of capital.

    2023 年,我們從那些不認同我們客戶至上理念的公司那裡獲得了份額,並歡迎更多機會在今年和未來為客戶提供最佳服務。這就是我們對未來的鼓點。最好的鐵礦石可以創建差異化的金屬戰略,最好的短流程鋼廠性能可以為自由現金流引擎提供燃料,一流的精加工能力可以為我們的客戶提供他們渴望的可持續鋼鐵解決方案。這些投資將帶來長期價值、增量自由現金流和超過我們資本成本的回報。

  • Before I pass it to Jess, let me provide a brief market update on Slide 6. Our NAFR and mini mill segments have positive momentum where we saw economic and industry trends improved through the end of the fourth quarter and the start of the year. Prices are increasingly supported by rising scrap costs, increasing global metallics and iron ore prices and extending lead times.

    在我將它傳遞給 Jess 之前,讓我在幻燈片 6 上提供一個簡短的市場更新。我們的 NAFR 和短流程鋼廠部分有積極的勢頭,我們看到經濟和行業趨勢在第四季度末和年初有所改善。價格越來越受到廢鋼成本上漲、全球金屬和鐵礦石價格上漲以及交貨時間延長的支撐。

  • We were successful in our annual contract negotiations for the beginning of the year. We continue capturing market share. We continue securing additional automotive volumes at Big River. This success is a product of close customer alignment and our preparedness to support our OEMs' transition to mini mills and our product development, collaboration and research capabilities.

    我們在年初的年度合同談判中取得了成功。我們繼續佔領市場份額。我們繼續確保 Big River 的額外汽車產量。這一成功是客戶密切配合的產物,也是我們為支持原始設備製造商向短流程鋼廠過渡以及我們的產品開發、協作和研究能力所做的準備。

  • In Europe, significant challenges remain. Steel prices are increasing from a very low base and are beginning to offset high energy and increasing raw material costs that continue to pressure segment performance. In Tubular, today's energy market remained stable with consistent demand supported by strong trade enforcement.

    在歐洲,重大挑戰依然存在。鋼鐵價格從一個非常低的基數開始上漲,並開始抵消高能源和不斷增加的原材料成本,這些成本繼續給部門業績帶來壓力。在管材方面,今天的能源市場在強有力的貿易執法支持下保持穩定的需求。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Jess, now to cover the financials. Jess?

    有了這個,讓我把它交給 Jess,現在來介紹財務狀況。傑斯?

  • Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

    Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. I'll pick up on Slide 7.

    謝謝,戴夫,大家早上好。我將在幻燈片 7 上接聽。

  • As Dave described, we've moved quickly to create a business model that creates value for stockholders today and tomorrow and increasingly supports growth and direct returns. Since December 2021, we have consistently included share repurchases as part of those direct returns and through year-end, have returned $1 billion to shareholders with buybacks.

    正如戴夫所描述的那樣,我們已經迅速採取行動,創建了一種商業模式,該模式可以為當今和未來的股東創造價值,並越來越多地支持增長和直接回報。自 2021 年 12 月以來,我們一直將股票回購作為直接回報的一部分,到年底,我們已通過回購向股東返還了 10 億美元。

  • In addition to our regular dividends, that includes $150 million in repurchases completed in the fourth quarter. When you consider repurchases to date, we've reduced our diluted share count by approximately 15%. We know that free cash flow is the most important source of enduring value creation, and we know the trust you show in our balanced capital allocation framework to put that cash to work on our strategic goals.

    除了我們的定期股息外,這還包括第四季度完成的 1.5 億美元回購。當你考慮迄今為止的回購時,我們已經將稀釋後的股份數量減少了大約 15%。我們知道自由現金流是持久價值創造的最重要來源,我們也知道您對我們平衡的資本分配框架表現出的信任,相信您可以將這些現金用於我們的戰略目標。

  • To that end, we are on track to deliver incremental annual run rate EBITDA of $880 million by 2026 from strategic projects that are underway. As we consider cash needs to continue our in-flight strategic initiatives in 2023, our balance sheet is the strongest it's ever been. Those projects are fully funded. And when coupled with our extended maturity profile, allow us to continue to execute our strategy with conviction this year.

    為此,我們有望在 2026 年之前從正在進行的戰略項目中實現 8.8 億美元的遞增年度運行率 EBITDA。由於我們認為現金需要在 2023 年繼續我們的機上戰略計劃,因此我們的資產負債表是有史以來最強勁的。這些項目資金充足。再加上我們延長的成熟期概況,讓我們能夠在今年繼續堅定地執行我們的戰略。

  • The balance sheet also provides an opportunity to continue repurchases on our current authorization. We completed an additional $50 million of share buybacks in January and we'll look to complete the remaining $250 million left on our current program in 2023.

    資產負債表還提供了一個機會,可以根據我們目前的授權繼續回購。我們在 1 月份完成了另外 5000 萬美元的股票回購,我們希望在 2023 年完成當前計劃中剩餘的 2.5 億美元。

  • So let's look at the fourth quarter's results on Slide 8. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA came in at $431 million. This is an improvement over the December 15 guidance we provided of approximately $375 million, a stronger-than-expected December in both NAFR and the mini mill segment as well as in Tubular contributed to that beat. And we're pleased to see the strong finish at year-end from our great team.

    那麼讓我們看看幻燈片 8 上第四季度的結果。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.31 億美元。這比我們在 12 月 15 日提供的大約 3.75 億美元的指導有所改善,12 月 NAFR 和短流程鋼廠部門以及管材部門的表現都強於預期,這對這一節拍做出了貢獻。我們很高興看到我們偉大的團隊在年底取得了出色的成績。

  • Importantly, that momentum has carried into Q1 for those businesses. That strong December also contributed to better-than-expected adjusted EPS, which came in at $0.87 per diluted share. It translates into $131 million of free cash flow for the quarter, contributing to our best-ever cash and liquidity positions at year-end.

    重要的是,這種勢頭已經延續到這些企業的第一季度。強勁的 12 月也促成了好於預期的調整後每股收益,每股攤薄收益為 0.87 美元。它轉化為本季度 1.31 億美元的自由現金流,為我們在年底的最佳現金和流動性狀況做出了貢獻。

  • Slide 9 recaps 2022 financial results, our second best in the company's 122-year history. For the full year, our business generated adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $9.95 per share -- per diluted share and free cash flow of nearly $1.8 billion. We believe there is no better value than U.S. Steel in the sector today.

    幻燈片 9 回顧了 2022 年的財務業績,這是我們在公司 122 年曆史上的第二好業績。全年,我們的業務產生了 42 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 9.95 美元的調整後每股收益 - 每股攤薄收益和近 18 億美元的自由現金流。我們認為,當今該行業沒有比美國鋼鐵公司更有價值的了。

  • Over the past 2 years, we've generated a record $5 billion of free cash flow. And in this time, we've been able to deliver our balance sheet and debt maturity profile that continues to be strong as steel. We've advanced best for all high-return strategic investments that are transforming our business model and redefining what cash flow generation will look like for U.S. Steel.

    在過去的兩年裡,我們產生了創紀錄的 50 億美元自由現金流。而在這段時間裡,我們已經能夠提供像鋼鐵一樣強勁的資產負債表和債務到期情況。我們在所有高回報戰略投資中取得了最好的進展,這些投資正在改變我們的商業模式並重新定義美國鋼鐵公司的現金流產生方式。

  • And all the while, we've rewarded stockholders with over $1 billion of direct returns. We are tremendously well positioned for 2023 and beyond to continue to execute our strategy and generate value for all our stakeholders.

    一直以來,我們為股東提供了超過 10 億美元的直接回報。在 2023 年及以後,我們處於非常有利的位置,可以繼續執行我們的戰略並為所有利益相關者創造價值。

  • Let's take a closer look at the fourth quarter by each of our business segments. Our North American Flat-Rolled segment delivered nearly $300 million of EBITDA at double-digit margins, overcoming the pressure of declining steel prices and customer destocking. Firm price contracts in our Flat-Rolled segment helped to mitigate the negative impact from lower market prices in the quarter.

    讓我們仔細看看我們每個業務部門的第四季度。我們的北美平板軋材部門以兩位數的利潤率實現了近 3 億美元的 EBITDA,克服了鋼材價格下跌和客戶去庫存的壓力。我們扁平軋材部門的堅挺價格合同有助於減輕本季度市場價格下跌的負面影響。

  • As a reminder, firm and cost-based contracts represent approximately 30% of our Flat-Rolled segment order book. Shipment volumes in the quarter declined 13% compared to the third quarter, and that was impacted in part by our decision to temporarily idle blast furnace #3 at the Mon Valley and blast furnace #8 at Gary Works.

    提醒一下,公司和基於成本的合同約占我們扁平材部門訂單的 30%。與第三季度相比,本季度的出貨量下降了 13%,部分原因是我們決定暫時閒置 Mon Valley 的 3 號高爐和 Gary Works 的 8 號高爐。

  • Next, on our mini mill segment. Big River has more exposure to the spot market than NAFR. And the mini mill segment saw a 28% reduction in average selling price for the quarter. Similar to our competitors, Big River's performance in Q4 was also weighed down by the impact of our continuing to absorb high-priced pig iron procured at the onset of the Ukraine war. We calculated the metallics headwind in the quarter to be about $40 million or about 7 percentage points of margin in the quarter.

    接下來,在我們的小型軋機部分。 Big River 比 NAFR 對現貨市場的敞口更大。短流程鋼廠部門本季度的平均售價下降了 28%。與我們的競爭對手類似,Big River 在第四季度的表現也受到我們繼續消化烏克蘭戰爭爆發時採購的高價生鐵的影響。我們計算出本季度的金屬逆風約為 4000 萬美元或本季度約 7 個百分點的利潤率。

  • Absent these cost pressures, Big River would have reported positive adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. And even with these increased raw material costs, Big River delivered positive EBITDA in December and is building on that momentum to start Q1. By mid-February, we expect to put these raw material challenges behind us, in part due to the in-sourcing of pig iron from Gary works.

    如果沒有這些成本壓力,Big River 本季度的調整後 EBITDA 將呈正數。即使在原材料成本增加的情況下,Big River 在 12 月實現了正的 EBITDA,並在這一勢頭的基礎上開始了第一季度。到 2 月中旬,我們希望將這些原材料挑戰拋在腦後,部分原因是 Gary 工廠內購了生鐵。

  • Turning to Europe, which remains challenged in the fourth quarter. Our European segment was impacted by reduced end customer demand in the region that extended the typical year-end destocking cycle. This led through to selling prices, which was amplified by the segment's exposure to the spot market. Challenges continue to impact the region from the effects of the Ukrainian conflict. Higher energy costs and an extended more expensive supply chain created additional margin pressure in the quarter.

    轉向歐洲,它在第四季度仍然面臨挑戰。我們的歐洲分部受到該地區終端客戶需求減少的影響,這延長了典型的年底去庫存週期。這導致了銷售價格,而銷售價格又因該部門對現貨市場的敞口而被放大。烏克蘭衝突的影響繼續給該地區帶來挑戰。更高的能源成本和更昂貴的供應鏈在本季度造成了額外的利潤壓力。

  • On a brighter note, our Tubular segment delivered impressive results in Q4. Strong selling prices and a reconfigured tubular business model, with internally sourced substrate, resulted in record level EBITDA margins for the segment.

    值得一提的是,我們的管狀部分在第四季度取得了令人矚目的成績。強勁的銷售價格和重新配置的管狀業務模式,以及內部採購的基材,使該部門的 EBITDA 利潤率達到創紀錄水平。

  • Let's now look ahead to the first quarter, which is expected to mark a trough for 2023 based on prevailing steel price forecast. Encouragingly, lead times are extending, customer inquiries from key end markets are growing and seasonal tailwinds are all expected to improve performance moving forward into 2023.

    現在讓我們展望第一季度,根據目前的鋼鐵價格預測,預計該季度將在 2023 年進入低谷。令人鼓舞的是,交貨時間正在延長,來自主要終端市場的客戶諮詢量在增加,季節性順風預計都將改善 2023 年的業績。

  • I'll share a few Q1 comments on each segment. In our Flat-Rolled segment, shipping volumes should increase versus the fourth quarter.

    我將在每個部分分享一些 Q1 評論。在我們的扁平軋材部分,出貨量應該比第四季度有所增加。

  • In response to increased demand and an improved order book, we recently restarted blast furnace #3 at the Mon Valley, and we're watching the book closely. And for now, we'll keep blast furnace #8 at Gary temporarily idled.

    為了應對增加的需求和改進的訂單,我們最近在蒙谷重啟了 3 號高爐,我們正在密切關注這本書。現在,我們將讓加里的 8 號高爐暫時閒置。

  • Higher volumes in NAFR should also help to partially offset the negative impact of lower steel prices and the typical seasonal headwinds we see early in the year from our iron ore mining operations. So for those of you that have followed us for years, you know that mining headwinds are unique to the first quarter, and we expect them to be about $75 million. As you know, our ability to ship iron ore pellets, either to our own operations or externally, are limited as the locks on the Great Lakes close for much of the first quarter.

    NAFR 的銷量增加也應該有助於部分抵消鋼鐵價格下跌的負面影響,以及我們在今年年初從鐵礦石開採業務中看到的典型季節性逆風。因此,對於那些關注我們多年的人來說,您知道第一季度礦業逆風是獨一無二的,我們預計它們約為 7500 萬美元。如您所知,由於五大湖的船閘在第一季度的大部分時間關閉,我們將鐵礦石球團運往我們自己的業務或外部的能力有限。

  • At our mini mill segment, I mentioned the momentum coming into Q1, which we expect will return the segment to positive EBITDA for the first quarter. Our metallics margin will improve with the start of pig iron shipments from Gary and a return to a more normal level of metallics costs in the back half of the quarter. Coupled with improving customer demand, the segment will see increasing EBITDA margins even as average selling prices are expected to decline in Q1.

    在我們的短流程鋼廠部分,我提到了進入第一季度的勢頭,我們預計這將使該部分在第一季度恢復正 EBITDA。隨著 Gary 開始發運生鐵,以及本季度後半段金屬成本恢復到更正常的水平,我們的金屬利潤率將會提高。再加上客戶需求的改善,該部門的 EBITDA 利潤率將增加,儘管預計第一季度的平均售價將下降。

  • In our European segment, increased volumes have supported our restarting blast furnaces #1 and #2 earlier this year. However, these higher volumes will not outpace the impact of lower average selling prices in Q1 and the impact of an extended supply base and high energy prices. As a result, we expect EBITDA for this segment will remain negative in Q1.

    在我們的歐洲部分,產量的增加支持了我們今年早些時候重啟高爐 #1 和 #2。然而,這些更高的銷量不會超過第一季度較低平均售價的影響以及擴大供應基礎和高能源價格的影響。因此,我們預計該部門的 EBITDA 在第一季度將保持負值。

  • And in tubular, higher selling prices and consistent demand are expected to result in higher quarter-over-quarter adjusted EBITDA. And when you add it all up, first quarter adjusted EBITDA for the company is expected to land in the range of $250 million to $300 million. Looking beyond Q1, I'll mention we have also shared aspects of our full year outlook in last night's presentation to be helpful in your modeling. This includes full year shipment guidance, 2023 CapEx, DD&A, annual pension figures and cash interest expense.

    在管材方面,更高的銷售價格和持續的需求預計將導致調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長。當你將所有這些加起來時,公司第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計將在 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間。展望第一季度之後,我會提到我們還在昨晚的演示中分享了我們全年展望的各個方面,以幫助您進行建模。這包括全年出貨量指導、2023 年資本支出、DD&A、年度養老金數據和現金利息支出。

  • And with that, Dave, I'll turn it back to you.

    有了這個,戴夫,我會把它還給你。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Jess. Before we open the lines for your questions, let me recap our prepared remarks on Slide 10.

    謝謝你,傑斯。在開始回答您的問題之前,讓我回顧一下我們在幻燈片 10 上準備好的評論。

  • We are building momentum in 2023 and setting up for another year focused on stockholder value creation, ESG transformation and disruptive innovation. ESG and our strategy execution are uniquely linked. 2022 marked our best year for progress against our environmental goals, and we are advancing strategic projects that will further greenify our footprint as we transition to more mini mill steelmaking. We'll generate a lot more cash, too.

    我們將在 2023 年蓄勢待發,並為又一年專注於股東價值創造、ESG 轉型和顛覆性創新做好準備。 ESG 和我們的戰略執行有著獨特的聯繫。 2022 年是我們實現環境目標取得最佳進展的一年,我們正在推進戰略項目,這些項目將在我們過渡到更多短流程煉鋼的過程中進一步綠色化我們的足跡。我們也會產生更多的現金。

  • We are continuing to create value for our stockholders. Today, as we continue to deliver on our strategic commitments and with continued share buybacks in the future with an incremental $880 million of run rate EBITDA contribution from our strategic projects. We are pleased with the successful start-up of the Gary pig iron operation and are advancing our NGO, Galvalume, DR-grade pellet investment and Big River 2 in-flight strategic projects on time and on budget. We are bullish on U.S. Steel.

    我們將繼續為我們的股東創造價值。今天,隨著我們繼續履行我們的戰略承諾,並在未來繼續股票回購,我們的戰略項目將增加 8.8 億美元的運行率 EBITDA 貢獻。我們對 Gary 生鐵業務的成功啟動感到高興,並正在按時按預算推進我們的 NGO、Galvalume、DR 級球團投資和 Big River 2 在建戰略項目。我們看好美國鋼鐵。

  • Kevin, let's move to Q&A.

    凱文,讓我們進入問答環節。

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Okay. Thank you, Dave. Our first question comes from, Say Technologies. We received several questions on the economy and the potential impacts to domestic steel demand. Dave, can you get us started on your views and outlook on the economy?

    好的。謝謝你,戴夫。我們的第一個問題來自 Say Technologies。我們收到了幾個關於經濟及其對國內鋼鐵需求的潛在影響的問題。戴夫,你能否讓我們開始談談你對經濟的看法和展望?

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, Kevin, and thanks for that really broad question, but I think it will be informative in terms of how we're thinking about this.

    是的。謝謝你,凱文,也感謝你提出的這個非常廣泛的問題,但我認為它會提供我們如何思考這個問題的信息。

  • It does feel like there's a lot of optimism coming back as the economy progresses in this year. Change in sentiment is turning positive, and it looks like a really good start with this positive news. There are several other factors on the horizon that could provide some additional upside. We've all seen the calming and lower trending inflation, the easing Fed rate. 25 basis point was the latest increase.

    隨著今年經濟的進步,確實感覺有很多樂觀情緒回歸。情緒的變化正在轉為積極,從這個積極的消息來看,這似乎是一個非常好的開始。地平線上還有其他幾個因素可能會帶來一些額外的好處。我們都看到了平靜和較低趨勢的通貨膨脹,以及寬鬆的美聯儲利率。 25 個基點是最新的漲幅。

  • Supply chain improvements continue. We got the fiscal stimulus, the chips act, the infrastructure bill, the climate change, our Inflation Reduction Act. Infrastructure bill, likely second half 2023 or 2024 tailwind. So that's only just beginning. So we would expect that to accelerate.

    供應鏈改進仍在繼續。我們得到了財政刺激、芯片法案、基礎設施法案、氣候變化、我們的通貨膨脹減少法案。基礎設施法案,可能是 2023 年下半年或 2024 年的順風。所以這才剛剛開始。所以我們預計這會加速。

  • And then there, of course, there's the bipartisan support for national security in the 232. Reassuring and surety of supply are developing trends. United States and U.S. Steel is uniquely positioned with mine melted and made in the U.S.A.

    當然,還有兩黨對 232 國家安全的支持。令人放心和有保障的供應是發展趨勢。 United States and U.S. Steel 的獨特定位是在美國熔化和製造礦山。

  • Steel prices, you've seen them trending up, supported by higher scrap and iron ore costs, accelerating industry demand, longer lead times. The tailwinds seem to be growing. We are keeping an eye on any potential hurdles, including, of course, we've all seen the yield curve inversion, declining PMI, declining M2 money supply, declining housing permits. There's lots of geopolitical risks. So there's a lot of things around the corner, no doubt about it, that are unknown. But we'd say if there's no system shocked -- shocks to the economy, we expect this to be dialed in about right and we'd expect a soft landing.

    在廢鋼和鐵礦石成本上漲、行業需求加速和交貨期延長的支撐下,鋼鐵價格呈上漲趨勢。順風似乎越來越大。我們正在密切關注任何潛在的障礙,當然,包括我們都看到了收益率曲線倒掛、PMI 下降、M2 貨幣供應量下降、住房許可下降。有很多地緣政治風險。所以有很多事情即將發生,毫無疑問,這是未知的。但我們會說,如果沒有系統衝擊 - 對經濟的衝擊,我們預計這將被正確撥入,我們預計會軟著陸。

  • Perhaps some mild recession in the back half of 2023 and a strong recovery in 2024. If there's a recession, we believe it'd be consumer-led, but I like the phrase that somebody used called Goldilocks Nandi. I think it's not too hot, not too cold. It feels like it could be just right with a bunch of geopolitical risks, of course, along the way.

    也許 2023 年下半年會出現一些溫和的衰退,2024 年會出現強勁復甦。如果出現衰退,我們相信它會以消費者為主導,但我喜歡有人用的這個詞,叫做 Goldilocks Nandi。我覺得不太熱,也不太冷。當然,一路走來,感覺它可能恰到好處地伴隨著一系列地緣政治風險。

  • But you all know this. We are focused on what we control. We're going to get our strategic projects completed on time, on budget, and we're going to improve our free cash flow generation of the business through cycle and enhance our EBITDA multiple. Kevin?

    但你們都知道這一點。我們專注於我們控制的東西。我們將按時、按預算完成我們的戰略項目,我們將通過週期改善我們業務的自由現金流生成,並提高我們的 EBITDA 倍數。凱文?

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Okay. Thanks so much, Dave. So with that, Tommy, you may now queue the phone line for questions. (Operator Instructions)

    好的。非常感謝,戴夫。因此,Tommy,您現在可以在電話線上排隊提問。 (操作員說明)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And we'll get to our first question on the line from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi.

    (操作員說明)我們將從 Alex Hacking with Citi 的線上開始我們的第一個問題。

  • Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector

    Alexander Nicholas Hacking - Director & Head of Americas Metals and Mining Sector

  • So Dave, I think you mentioned in your comments that you're gaining market share -- or potentially gaining market share on the automotive side. But when I look at the mix of your contract versus spot in the slides, particularly on the mini mill side, it looks like the firm pricing is significantly lower than it was last year.

    所以戴夫,我想你在評論中提到你正在獲得市場份額——或者可能在汽車方面獲得市場份額。但是,當我查看幻燈片中您的合同與現貨的組合時,尤其是在短流程鋼廠方面,看起來公司定價明顯低於去年。

  • And when I look at the Flat-Rolled side, it's still -- the firm business is still sort of, I'd say, significantly below where it was 3 or 4 years ago. So I guess how should we square that away? And then I guess adding to that question, one of your competitors has been pretty vocal about where the auto contracts ended up. Did you achieve similar results?

    當我看平軋的一面時,它仍然——我想說,公司業務仍然大大低於 3 或 4 年前的水平。所以我想我們應該如何解決這個問題?然後我想除了這個問題之外,你的一個競爭對手一直在直言不諱地談論汽車合同的最終結果。你有沒有得到類似的結果?

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, that's a really good question. Let me start this out, and then I'll ask my teammates to weigh in as well.

    是的,這是一個非常好的問題。讓我開始吧,然後我會請我的隊友也參與進來。

  • We've been doing very well on the automotive agreements. We've got good balance across all of the OEMs and better pull rates to start here in 2023. There's no doubt that we are winning in the auto space, and we're very pleased with the contracts that we've had, which also give us the greater market share.

    我們在汽車協議方面一直做得很好。我們在所有原始設備製造商之間取得了良好的平衡,並在 2023 年從這裡開始提高拉動率。毫無疑問,我們在汽車領域取得了勝利,我們對已經簽訂的合同感到非常滿意,這也給我們更大的市場份額。

  • One of the areas that we see significant interest in is our verdeX steel, particularly at Big River Steel, where we have the automotive sector, very interested in that much lower carbon. And of course, for us, that's very low on the cost curve.

    我們認為非常感興趣的領域之一是我們的 verdeX 鋼,特別是在我們擁有汽車行業的 Big River Steel,對低碳非常感興趣。當然,對我們來說,這在成本曲線上非常低。

  • And Big River Steel, of course, with the new products that we're putting on, folks are lining up for the NGL line, which will be electrical vehicle and the motors there, which will be, without question, the best in the United States. But as far as the contracts, it's true that Big River Steel does mostly have the spot business. But as we move up the food chain, we'd expect to have more of the fixed contracts that mirror closer to what we have across the enterprise. But that will take a little bit longer.

    當然,Big River Steel,隨著我們推出的新產品,人們正在排隊等待 NGL 生產線,這將是電動汽車和那裡的電機,毫無疑問,這將是美國最好的狀態。但就合同而言,Big River Steel 確實主要從事現貨業務。但隨著我們在食物鏈上向上移動,我們希望有更多的固定合同更接近於我們在整個企業中擁有的合同。但這需要更長的時間。

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Yes. And then, Alex, the only thing I would add is you referenced to the pie charts in our materials, right, those being year-end 2022 figures. We'd expect to see that market share capture change in customers' desires for more in-depth contracts a year ago and maybe more spot exposure this year to flow through into 2023 contract next. So given the volume gains we believe we've made across auto and other end markets, you'll see that flow through increasingly to our product mix this year and in our contract structures this year.

    是的。然後,亞歷克斯,我唯一要補充的是你提到了我們材料中的餅圖,對,那些是 2022 年底的數字。我們預計市場份額會在一年前捕捉到客戶對更深入合同的需求變化,今年可能會有更多現貨敞口流入 2023 年的合同。因此,鑑於我們認為我們在汽車和其他終端市場取得的銷量增長,你會看到今年越來越多地流向我們的產品組合和我們今年的合同結構。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll get to our next question on the line. It is from Tristan Gresser with PNB Paribas Exane.

    我們將在線討論下一個問題。它來自 PNB Paribas Exane 的 Tristan Gresser。

  • Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst

    Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst

  • Can you discuss a little bit what you're seeing for the tubular division near term, but also for the full year? That's maybe one -- the only division when the guidance for volumes fell a bit short of market expectations.

    你能談談你對管狀部門近期和全年的看法嗎?這可能是一個——當銷量指導略低於市場預期時唯一的一個部門。

  • So can you talk a little bit about the commercial strategy there? The evolution of the contract mix as well, we've seen on the slide there, is it fair to assume, given your commentary and what we're seeing on the ground that we could see some margin resilience in the first half?

    那麼你能談談那裡的商業戰略嗎?合同組合的演變也是如此,我們已經在幻燈片上看到了,根據您的評論和我們在實地看到的我們可以在上半年看到一些保證金彈性的假設是否公平?

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Yes. Thanks, Tristan, for the question. This is Kevin. So tubular certainly is a very large bright spot in the portfolio. Your point around the contract structure and the commercial strategy is a great call out. We've been very purposeful within the business to expand our program customers, which means that we look at customers that participate in more resilient basins like the Eagle Ford, like the Permian, like the Haynesville strategic basins, and have increased our exposure to that business.

    是的。謝謝特里斯坦提出這個問題。這是凱文。所以管狀肯定是投資組合中非常大的亮點。你圍繞合同結構和商業戰略的觀點是一個很好的呼籲。我們在業務中一直非常有目的性地擴大我們的計劃客戶,這意味著我們著眼於參與更具彈性的盆地的客戶,如鷹灘、二疊紀盆地、海恩斯維爾戰略盆地,並增加了我們對這些盆地的接觸商業。

  • So that allows us to have a much more resilient tubular order book and certainly in a strong environment like today, is resulting in record margins.

    因此,這使我們能夠擁有更具彈性的管狀訂單簿,當然在像今天這樣的強勁環境中,這也導致了創紀錄的利潤率。

  • On the demand side, I think what's important to remember is that the shipment levels that we saw particularly in the second half of the year are really full utilization given some of the capacity constraints that we have at our Fairfield Works facility. So volumes should remain at pretty stable levels given the high utilization rates that we ran in 2022.

    在需求方面,我認為需要記住的重要一點是,考慮到我們在 Fairfield Works 工廠的一些產能限制,我們在今年下半年看到的出貨水平確實是充分利用。因此,鑑於我們在 2022 年的高利用率,銷量應該保持在相當穩定的水平。

  • So with all that being said, I think tubular is obviously in a great position for 2023. We certainly expect prices to be higher in Q1 versus Q4. And as I think both Dave and Jess mentioned in their remarks, we should see another really, really strong quarter of performance for tubular in the first half -- first quarter of the year and resiliency certainly throughout the year.

    因此,儘管如此,我認為管材在 2023 年顯然處於有利地位。我們當然預計第一季度的價格會高於第四季度。正如我認為 Dave 和 Jess 在他們的評論中提到的那樣,我們應該在上半年看到管材的另一個非常非常強勁的季度表現 - 今年第一季度和全年的彈性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll get to our next question on the line from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

    我們將在高盛的 Emily Chieng 在線回答下一個問題。

  • Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

    Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

  • My first is a follow-up around sort of the pricing expectations for the mini mill business, particularly as you think about the NGO line coming into service in the third quarter of this year. How long do you anticipate that qualification process to take? And should we expect this product to be sold at fixed price contracts? And how should we start to see that impact pricing throughout the course of the year?

    我首先是圍繞短流程鋼廠業務的某種定價預期進行跟進,特別是當你考慮今年第三季度投入使用的 NGO 生產線時。您預計資格認證過程需要多長時間?我們是否應該期望該產品以固定價格合同出售?我們應該如何開始看到這一年對定價的影響?

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Yes. This is Kevin. It's a great question. I would say that the second half of 2023 for our non-grain-oriented electrical steel line will be heavily focused on commissioning and qualification with customers. We will start to see some of those volumes come in throughout the back half of the year, but 2024 will certainly be the year where you start to see the heaviest ramp-up in benefit from our non-grain oriented electrical facility.

    是的。這是凱文。這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是,2023 年下半年,我們的非晶粒取向電工鋼生產線將重點關注客戶的調試和鑑定。我們將在今年下半年開始看到其中一些產量的增加,但 2024 年肯定會是您開始看到我們的非穀物電力設施受益最大的一年。

  • So that's a 200,000 ton a year line. I wouldn't take kind of half of that and assume that's what we're going to ship in the back half of 2023, but we should get much closer to that number on a run rate basis moving forward. Electrical Steel has traded a significant premium to spot prices and to higher oil prices. So we're having those types of conversations now with our customers as they look to secure line time at that facility and ultimately added to their portfolio of business with our company.

    所以這是一條年產 200,000 噸的生產線。我不會接受其中的一半,並假設這就是我們將在 2023 年下半年交付的產品,但我們應該在未來的運行率基礎上更接近這個數字。 Electrical Steel 的交易價格遠高於現貨價格和較高的油價。因此,我們現在正在與我們的客戶進行此類對話,因為他們希望確保該設施的線路時間並最終添加到他們與我們公司的業務組合中。

  • So we're seeing lots of activity, lots of interests and our commercial teams are deeply engaged in those discussions. And when that line ultimately comes up, you're going to see it really enhance the product mix at Big River. We -- Dave mentioned in his remarks, about 400 basis points of margin expansion based on that richer mix and those volumes being pulled through the campus Therapy River.

    所以我們看到了很多活動,很多興趣,我們的商業團隊正在深入參與這些討論。當這條生產線最終出現時,您將看到它真正增強了 Big River 的產品組合。我們 - 戴夫在他的評論中提到,基於更豐富的組合以及通過校園治療河拉動的那些數量,利潤率擴張了大約 400 個基點。

  • Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

    Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

  • Maybe a follow-up is just around the flat-rolled business' cost structure there. It looks like your utilization rates have fallen about 15% there from 2Q to 4Q levels last year, but cost per ton have been pretty flat, but still elevated relative to prior year levels.

    也許後續行動只是圍繞那裡的扁平業務成本結構。看起來你們的利用率從去年第二季度到第四季度的水平下降了大約 15%,但每噸成本相當持平,但相對於去年的水平仍然有所上升。

  • Maybe can you talk a little bit about what's been happening at the flat-rolled business that has kept those costs per ton numbers flat? But what is the potential for cost out as we look forward to 2023? I'll leave it at that.

    也許你能談談平軋業務中發生了什麼,使每噸成本保持不變嗎?但是,當我們期待 2023 年時,成本支出的潛力有多大?我會留在那裡。

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Yes. Thanks, Emily. It's a great question. I think it really speaks to the level of cost control, operating efficiencies that we were able to drive within the North American Flat-Rolled segment with a reduced footprint.

    是的。謝謝,艾米麗。這是一個很好的問題。我認為這確實說明了成本控制水平、我們能夠在減少佔地面積的情況下在北美平板軋製部門內推動的運營效率。

  • If you adjust for the 2 furnaces, both Gary and the Mon Valley, which are temporarily idled, and you look at the applied utilization rate of those furnaces to remain, we are in excess of 80% levels of utilization. So that's a very healthy level of utilization to run blast furnaces, and our team did an excellent job not only running them safely, but doing it in a very prudent way from a cost perspective.

    如果調整暫時閒置的 Gary 和 Mon Valley 兩座熔爐,並查看這些熔爐的應用利用率,我們的利用率水平超過 80%。所以這是運行高爐的一個非常健康的利用率水平,我們的團隊做得非常出色,不僅安全地運行它們,而且從成本的角度來看以非常謹慎的方式進行。

  • So as utilization rates then increase, at the Mon Valley, as that furnace ramps up, we should see probably some additional cost improvements as well. And we're certainly focused on driving continued efficiencies and yield improvement, labor productivity, et cetera. So I think there's some continued opportunity to lower cost in 2023.

    因此,隨著利用率的提高,在 Mon Valley,隨著熔爐的增加,我們也可能會看到一些額外的成本改善。我們當然專注於推動持續效率和產量提高、勞動生產率等。因此,我認為 2023 年仍有一些降低成本的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now proceed to our next question on the line is from the line of Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題,該問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。

  • Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • So the labor contracts that you talked about, Dave, earlier in your script, can you just discuss a little bit about how you design those with the long-term strategy in mind?

    因此,戴夫,你在劇本的前面提到的勞動合同,你能談談你是如何在考慮長期戰略的情況下設計這些合同的嗎?

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Thanks for that question, Phil.

    當然。謝謝你提出這個問題,菲爾。

  • And the collective bargaining agreement, I would say all things considered went very smoothly. We took the time. We were very purposeful. We had in mind what would the expectations were and we worked very well with -- during the USW negotiations, and we felt great that we are able to break away from the pattern, but mostly that was because of the stellar pension that we have, particularly with the Aviva, which was 200% overfunded.

    而勞資協議,我想說所有考慮的事情都進行得非常順利。我們花時間。我們很有目的性。我們考慮到了期望是什麼,並且我們合作得很好——在 USW 談判期間,我們對能夠擺脫這種模式感到很高興,但這主要是因為我們擁有一流的養老金,特別是 Aviva,它的資金超支了 200%。

  • Because of the way that operates, you can actually -- and I'll ask Jess to weigh in on this, we can actually make sure that we use those -- the cash from the pension that is overfunded to be able to pay for active medical, and then that active medical is reduced. So that would enable us to provide increases in pay.

    由於這種運作方式,你實際上可以——我會請 Jess 來權衡一下,我們實際上可以確保我們使用那些——來自養老金的現金,這些現金資金過剩,能夠支付積極的醫療,然後減少主動醫療。因此,這將使我們能夠提供加薪。

  • And so when we think about the collective bargaining agreements, what we want to do is we want to strive for more variable pay with the philosophy of pay for performance, meaning when we do well, our employees do well. So we have a bias for profit sharing. In fact, uncapped profit sharing like we've had here in the last few years where people can make substantial amounts of money. That's the model that we have at Big River.

    因此,當我們考慮集體談判協議時,我們想做的是,我們希望本著績效薪酬的理念爭取更多可變薪酬,這意味著當我們做得好時,我們的員工也會做得很好。所以我們有利潤分享的偏見。事實上,就像過去幾年我們在這裡所做的那樣,不設上限的利潤分享讓人們可以賺到大筆的錢。這就是我們在 Big River 擁有的模型。

  • And we believe that when you have a variable pay structure, you end up with a much better result for your employees, for your company, and certainly, you can then invest more in innovation to support your customers.

    我們相信,當你採用可變薪酬結構時,你最終會為你的員工、你的公司帶來更好的結果,當然,你可以在創新方面投入更多,以支持你的客戶。

  • So we're very pleased with the flexibility working with the USW to get an agreement that works very well for us, very different than the competitor that was first brought to us that plan, but we feel really good about this. And maybe just a little bit more, Jess, on how the Aviva works because we do take a long-term view of this relationship with our employees, as with our customers, as with our stockholders. Jess?

    因此,我們很高興能靈活地與 USW 合作,達成一項對我們非常有效的協議,與最初向我們提出該計劃的競爭對手截然不同,但我們對此感覺非常好。傑西,也許還有一點關於英傑華的運作方式,因為我們確實從長遠角度看待與員工、客戶和股東的這種關係。傑斯?

  • Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

    Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Dave. And Phil, thanks for the question.

    是的。謝謝,戴夫。菲爾,謝謝你的提問。

  • I'll mention Aviva in a moment, but there actually were a few really significant financial considerations within the CBA that our negotiating team did a fantastic job in making sure that are thinking of our employees and thinking of the company, right, and the approach that we took to get the CBA negotiated.

    我稍後會提到 Aviva,但實際上 CBA 內部有一些非常重要的財務考慮因素,我們的談判團隊在確保考慮我們的員工和公司方面做得非常出色,正確的,以及方法我們採取了 CBA 談判。

  • So the Aviva is one of them. So as Dave mentioned, our OPEB plan, our OPEB funding was significantly overfunded to the tune of 200%. And so what we have been able to do is to tap into that overfunded status. It's still significantly overfunded, right? It's in excess of 135%, but we were able to carved out some of that overfunded amount and utilized that as a direct cash offset to active medical expenses incurred by our represented employees in the year.

    所以英傑華就是其中之一。因此,正如 Dave 提到的,我們的 OPEB 計劃,我們的 OPEB 資金嚴重超額到 200%。因此,我們能夠做的就是利用這種資金過剩的狀態。它仍然明顯資金過多,對吧?它超過了 135%,但我們能夠剔除部分超額資金,並將其用作直接現金抵消我們所代表的員工當年發生的積極醫療費用。

  • So what that's going to translate to is, over the 4-year agreement, about $300 million of direct cash offset. Think about it as $75 million a year against the active medical costs that we would otherwise have paid for with corporate cash. So that opportunity to offset some of the cash flow for the company ensures that, again, the represented employee is -- the medical is still in place, but we have this offset in terms of the economic burden, right, by directly accessing that excess Aviva funding for the -- across the 4-year period. So that's the first thing.

    因此,在為期 4 年的協議中,這將轉化為約 3 億美元的直接現金抵消。把它想像成每年 7500 萬美元,而不是我們本可以用公司現金支付的積極醫療費用。因此,為公司抵消部分現金流的機會再次確保所代表的員工 - 醫療仍然存在,但我們通過直接獲取多餘的部分來抵消經濟負擔,對吧英傑華在 4 年期間的資金。所以這是第一件事。

  • I think the other thing worth noting is we were able to leverage what was -- what continues to be a very strong cash position in being able to reward our represented employees with a onetime cash bonus at ratification. And so that $64 million onetime bonus was paid in the fourth quarter, and again, puts money in the pockets of our represented employees real-time, in addition to what we've negotiated as what we believe to be a fair salary increase over the 4-year period as well.

    我認為另一件值得注意的事情是,我們能夠利用過去的 - 仍然是非常強大的現金狀況,能夠在批准時用一次性現金獎金獎勵我們代表的員工。因此,在第四季度支付了 6400 萬美元的一次性獎金,並且再次將錢實時存入我們代表的員工的口袋,除了我們已經協商過的我們認為比去年合理的加薪幅度之外4年期限也是如此。

  • We also believe that negotiating what will be $1 billion of capital investment commitments over that 4-year period will continue to supply supportive CapEx to maintain our integrated assets with really exceptional operating quality and reliability performance, but is at a significant advantage to some of the commitments that were negotiated by our competitor. So we feel really good from a financial perspective about the overall considerations in the CBA and obviously are happy to get to work within the integrated mills.

    我們還相信,在這 4 年期間就 10 億美元的資本投資承諾進行談判,將繼續提供支持性資本支出,以維持我們的綜合資產,使其具有真正卓越的運營質量和可靠性能,但對一些公司來說具有顯著優勢我們的競爭對手談判達成的承諾。因此,從財務角度來看,我們對 CBA 的整體考慮感到非常滿意,並且顯然很高興在綜合工廠內開展工作。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • I'd say the collective bargaining teams on both sides, U.S. Steel and USW, they were very creative to work together. I have to say I was very impressed with the outcome that they were able to come together to make sure that we -- what we like to say, best for all, because this was clearly a great agreement for our employees. It was also grade for our stockholders, too, because of the cash saved and the costs that we have improved versus a competitor.

    我想說雙方的集體談判團隊,美國鋼鐵公司和 USW,他們非常有創造力地一起工作。我不得不說,我對他們能夠齊心協力確保我們——我們想說的,對所有人最好的結果印象深刻,因為這顯然對我們的員工來說是一個很好的協議。這對我們的股東來說也是個好消息,因為與競爭對手相比,我們節省了現金,而且成本有所降低。

  • So we're very, very pleased with the relationship with USW and of course, really delighted that we're able to give our employees such a great contract.

    因此,我們對與 USW 的關係感到非常非常高興,當然,我們也非常高興我們能夠為我們的員工提供如此出色的合同。

  • Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • If I could sneak in a follow-up here. Just can you update us on Granite City and that plan, I believe, for your relationship with SunCoke to potentially do some pig iron modules over time? Anything that you could provide there as an update would be helpful.

    如果我能在這裡偷偷跟進。你能告訴我們關於 Granite City 的最新情況嗎?我相信,你與 SunCoke 的關係隨著時間的推移可能會做一些生鐵模塊?您可以在那裡提供的任何更新都會有所幫助。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sure. I'll turn it over to Rich here just to second. He's providing some leadership there. I would say that the discussions are ongoing. We're working really hard to save some 500 jobs there.

    是的。當然。我會把它交給里奇,只是為了第二。他在那裡提供了一些領導。我會說討論正在進行中。我們正在非常努力地挽救那裡的大約 500 個工作崗位。

  • And we think this pig facility would be a good solution. But there's -- we got to make sure we do this cost effectively, and we got to make sure, again, we get it best for all. We want the employees to do well, and we need our stockholders to do well, too.

    我們認為這個養豬設施將是一個很好的解決方案。但是 - 我們必須確保我們以成本效益的方式做到這一點,並且我們必須再次確保我們為所有人做到最好。我們希望員工做得好,我們也需要我們的股東做得好。

  • Richard L. Fruehauf - Senior VP and Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer

    Richard L. Fruehauf - Senior VP and Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer

  • Well, thanks, Dave. Yes, as Dave said, we continue the conversations with SunCoke. And congratulations to them. I think they had a great year last year. I saw their earnings release. So no, we're in regular contact with SunCoke. The conversations continue. And as Dave said, we're trying to figure out how we can make this work for both sides. So it's a win for everybody.

    好吧,謝謝,戴夫。是的,正如 Dave 所說,我們繼續與 SunCoke 進行對話。並祝賀他們。我認為他們去年度過了美好的一年。我看到了他們的收益發布。所以不,我們與 SunCoke 保持定期聯繫。對話還在繼續。正如 Dave 所說,我們正在努力弄清楚如何讓雙方都能做到這一點。所以這對每個人來說都是一場胜利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll get to our next question on the line from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們將通過美國銀行的 Lawson Winder 在線回答下一個問題。

  • Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst

    Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about your decision to restart Mon Valley. My understanding is that Mon Valley mainly serves the appliance market. Have you seen any strong indications from those customers that demand is, in fact, strengthening? And why I'm asking is just -- I mean, there remains this view that the appliance demand could be weak if there's any sort of macro headwinds like with residential market or interest rates. I love your thoughts on that.

    我想問問你關於重啟蒙谷的決定。我的理解是Mon Valley主要服務於家電市場。您是否從這些客戶那裡看到任何強烈的跡象表明需求實際上正在增強?為什麼我要問的只是 - 我的意思是,仍然存在這樣一種觀點,即如果住宅市場或利率等存在任何宏觀逆風,家電需求可能會疲軟。我喜歡你的想法。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • What I'd say is that I'd say more last year, we felt more of the headwinds. We obviously match supply and demand. So the fact that we're turning on a blast furnace is an indication that things are better. Obviously, with the economy and the headwinds confronting the residential space, there is some pressure on the appliance, but I would say it is better. I would say, probably third quarter issue was a lot more challenging, but we're encouraged where we are, and we'll have to see how it plays out.

    我要說的是去年我要說的更多,我們感受到了更多的阻力。我們顯然匹配供需。因此,我們打開高爐這一事實表明情況有所好轉。顯然,在經濟和住宅空間面臨逆風的情況下,電器有一些壓力,但我會說它更好。我想說,第三季度的問題可能更具挑戰性,但我們對目前的情況感到鼓舞,我們必須看看結果如何。

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Yes, Lawson, the only thing I would add to Dave's remarks is the Mon Valley also serves some of our construction converter and service center business. And we were just looking overall at the order book. We saw order entry rates significantly outpacing our melt production plans, and that was a very clear trigger point for us to make the decision to return that furnace to service at the Mon Valley in support of our customers and to ensure we have the right delivery performance that we need to earn their business going forward. So good pockets of demand throughout the Mon Valley benefited from that with the restart.

    是的,勞森,我唯一要補充的是戴夫的評論是蒙谷也為我們的一些建築轉換器和服務中心業務提供服務。我們只是在總體上看訂單。我們看到訂單錄入率大大超過了我們的熔體生產計劃,這很明顯地觸發了我們決定讓該熔爐在蒙谷恢復服務以支持我們的客戶並確保我們有正確的交付性能我們需要贏得他們未來的業務。重啟後,整個蒙谷的大量需求都從中受益。

  • Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst

    Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst

  • Okay. Fantastic. And maybe if I could just follow up on some earlier comments and a question on the Tubular segment, just to be a little bit more clear. So I mean your guidance of $450 million to $550 million, at least at the midpoint, suggests that it could be a little bit down in 2023.

    好的。極好的。也許我可以跟進一些早期的評論和關於管狀部分的問題,只是為了更清楚一點。所以我的意思是你的 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元的指導,至少在中點,表明它可能會在 2023 年有所下降。

  • Could you maybe just comment specifically on those numbers versus the 523,000 tons in 2022?

    您能否具體評論一下這些數字與 2022 年的 523,000 噸相比?

  • Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

    Kevin Lewis - VP of IR and Corporate FP&A

  • Sure, happy to. I mean we provide a range, obviously, given it's a full year look. But I would say at this point in time, there's nothing that we're seeing in the Tubular segment that would have us cautious as we're not able to meet the upper end of that range. So I would expect, at this point in time, at least similar levels of shipment volumes in '23 as '22.

    當然,很高興。我的意思是我們顯然提供了一個範圍,因為它是全年的外觀。但我要說的是,在這個時間點,我們在管狀部分看到的任何東西都不會讓我們保持謹慎,因為我們無法達到該範圍的上限。所以我預計,在這個時間點,23 年的出貨量至少與 22 年的出貨量水平相似。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll get to our next question on the line is from Gordon Johnson with GLJ Research.

    下一個問題來自 Gordon Johnson 和 GLJ Research。

  • Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder

    Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder

  • Congratulations on the strong cash flow. A lot of the questions I had have been answered. But I just wanted to get your thoughts on kind of a broader question.

    祝賀現金流強勁。我的很多問題都得到了回答。但我只是想了解您對更廣泛問題的看法。

  • Just given -- just looking at the U.S. economy and given consumer spending are the engine of the U.S. economy is starting to sputter, you have retail purchases down in 3 of the past 4 months, you have spending on services flat in December, which is the worst in a year, home sales last year fell to the lowest level since 2014, auto sales the worst since 2022 last year.

    只要看看美國經濟,考慮到消費者支出是美國經濟的引擎,美國經濟開始放緩,過去 4 個月中有 3 個月零售採購下降,12 月服務支出持平,這是一年來最差,去年房屋銷售跌至2014年以來的最低水平,去年汽車銷售跌至2022年以來最差。

  • It just seems like some -- in some of the forces that help keep spinning higher kind of unwinding. Just wanted to get your thoughts on -- given those dynamics, what do you guys think about pricing in the first and second quarter and the second half? And then one follow-up.

    它看起來就像一些 - 在一些有助於保持旋轉更高種類的放鬆的力量中。只是想了解您的想法 - 鑑於這些動態,你們如何看待第一季度和第二季度以及下半年的定價?然後是跟進。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, thanks. I think we are seeing prices come back. Obviously, we talked about that a bit earlier. So through the first quarter, things related price and demand are stronger. It's always hard to forecast in this industry what's going to happen.

    非常感謝。我認為我們看到價格回升。顯然,我們之前討論過這個問題。因此,通過第一季度,與價格和需求相關的東西更加強勁。總是很難預測這個行業會發生什麼。

  • I indicated I believe it's going to be a soft landing in the back half. But the reality is nobody really knows for sure, but I think the key piece here is if you look at the labor markets, they continue to be very strong. People continue to have jobs, they continue to spend and they continue to move the economy forward.

    我表示我相信這將是後半部分的軟著陸。但現實是沒有人真正確定,但我認為這裡的關鍵是如果你看看勞動力市場,它們仍然非常強勁。人們繼續有工作,他們繼續消費,他們繼續推動經濟向前發展。

  • But if there's going to be a deep recession or a recession, it's probably going to be consumer-led, as I said earlier. But for -- right now, it does seem good for the first quarter in terms of pricing. We have indications that longer term, it should be really good because we've got these bills that will start to kick in. The infrastructure bill really hasn't hit yet. And then with the IRA and of course, the CHIPS Act moving forward, those are all very positive things.

    但如果出現深度衰退或經濟衰退,它可能會以消費者為主導,正如我之前所說的那樣。但就目前而言,就定價而言,第一季度似乎確實不錯。我們有跡象表明,從長遠來看,它應該非常好,因為我們已經有了這些將開始生效的法案。基礎設施法案確實還沒有生效。然後隨著 IRA,當然還有 CHIPS 法案的推進,這些都是非常積極的事情。

  • And I think with the Fed easing rates, we should probably see this thing continue. We said some time ago, we don't see -- even though we model towards the average price CRU index when we do our business case studies, we believe it should settle higher than that over the cycle because we have had industry consolidation. We have had changes in the dynamic. We have better trade enforcement.

    而且我認為隨著美聯儲放寬利率,我們可能會看到這種情況繼續下去。我們前段時間說過,我們沒有看到 - 儘管我們在進行業務案例研究時針對平均價格 CRU 指數建模,但我們認為它應該在整個週期內收於高於該指數的水平,因為我們已經進行了行業整合。我們的動態發生了變化。我們有更好的貿易執法。

  • So -- again, it gets back to really bullish longer term. We're in this transitional period with a lot of uncertainty. And frankly, I think a lot of people think the Fed is doing a lot better job on the soft landing than what was expected.

    所以 - 再一次,它又回到了真正看漲的長期。我們正處於這個充滿不確定性的過渡時期。坦率地說,我認為很多人認為美聯儲在軟著陸方面做得比預期的要好得多。

  • But the reality is nobody knows. And the good news for us is we've got a really healthy balance sheet, lots of liquidity, lots of cash, so we're going to be able to manage whatever comes our way. But I'm bullish on the U.S.A. I'm bullish on the U.S. steel industry, and I'm bullish on U.S. Steel. And I believe, longer term, the prices will be sustainable and higher.

    但現實是沒有人知道。對我們來說,好消息是我們擁有非常健康的資產負債表、大量的流動性、大量現金,因此我們將能夠管理我們遇到的任何事情。但我看好美國。我看好美國鋼鐵行業,我看好美國鋼鐵公司。而且我相信,從長遠來看,價格將是可持續的並且會更高。

  • Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder

    Gordon Lee Johnson - CEO & Founder

  • And just a quick follow-up. You guys have built a strong cash position. Any plans that maybe you didn't mention on what you plan to do with that strong cash position?

    并快速跟進。你們已經建立了強大的現金頭寸。有什麼計劃你可能沒有提到你打算用強大的現金頭寸做什麼?

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, thanks for those comments, Gordon. We appreciate them. As we keep doing the beating of the drum, we've got the strategic investments we have to get through because we're going to generate $1 billion of cash through these and we'll be done with those at the end of this next year.

    好吧,謝謝你的評論,戈登。我們感謝他們。當我們繼續敲鼓時,我們已經完成了必須完成的戰略投資,因為我們將通過這些產生 10 億美元的現金,我們將在明年年底完成這些投資.

  • So we feel really good about getting those strategic investments in place. And so I do think that as we say and we're going to have the growth and direct returns to stockholders. We want to make sure that we're building that into our business model that our stockholders can always appreciate and expect for us to be able to give direct returns and stock buyback.

    因此,我們對將這些戰略投資落實到位感到非常高興。所以我確實認為,正如我們所說,我們將實現增長並直接回報股東。我們希望確保我們將其構建到我們的商業模式中,讓我們的股東始終能夠欣賞並期望我們能夠提供直接回報和股票回購。

  • Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

    Jessica T. Graziano - Senior VP & CFO

  • If I can add, Dave, just a quick comment to that. Gordon, what I would is if you come back to our -- the framework of our capital allocation strategy, that's really a guide towards the way we're thinking about how we'll spend that cash, how we'll put that cash to work, how we'll look to grow the business and provide direct returns.

    戴夫,如果我可以補充一點,請快速評論一下。戈登,如果你回到我們的 - 我們的資本配置戰略框架,我想說的是,這實際上是我們思考如何花費現金的方式的指南,我們將如何將現金用於工作,我們將如何發展業務並提供直接回報。

  • In going down the list, the check box of making sure we maintain a strong balance sheet, making sure that we are prioritizing the investment in the strategy and in the initiatives that are going to generate even more cash flow, right, that virtuous cycle of investing in a business to drive more cash to reinvest and drive more cash.

    在列表中,確保我們保持強大的資產負債表的複選框,確保我們優先投資於戰略和將產生更多現金流的計劃,正確的,良性循環投資企業以推動更多現金再投資並推動更多現金。

  • And then ultimately, the opportunity that we have today and tomorrow, to have that cash be returned to the stockholders in direct returns. We're really excited about the opportunity that we have and what we've built so far and how the continued focus of capital allocation in those strategies is just going to give us more power to grow in the future.

    然後最終,我們今天和明天都有機會將現金以直接回報的形式返還給股東。我們對我們擁有的機會和我們迄今為止所建立的東西以及在這些戰略中持續關注資本配置將如何給我們更多的未來增長動力感到非常興奮。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • I think we need to all be clear on this. We got the capital allocation strategy. It's a healthy balance sheet, making sure we get the strategic projects done. If there's a 15% or better return that we can get quickly we're in. And then, of course, we got the dividends and the stock buyback. But look at that schedule in there, that's what we're following. And as long as we're generating that cash, we believe we're going to be in absolutely fantastic shape.

    我認為我們都需要清楚這一點。我們得到了資本配置策略。這是一個健康的資產負債表,確保我們完成戰略項目。如果我們可以快速獲得 15% 或更高的回報率,我們就會參與其中。然後,當然,我們得到了股息和股票回購。但是看看那裡的時間表,這就是我們要遵循的。只要我們產生現金,我們相信我們將處於絕對出色的狀態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that was our final question. I will now turn the call back over to U.S. Steel's CEO, Dave Burritt, for closing comments.

    這是我們的最後一個問題。我現在將把電話轉回給美國鋼鐵公司的首席執行官戴夫·伯里特,以徵求結束意見。

  • David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

    David Boyd Burritt - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, thanks again for your interest in our company and our strategy. We're looking forward to building on our successes from 2022 and delivering value to all of our stakeholders in 2023.

    好吧,再次感謝您對我們公司和我們的戰略的興趣。我們期待在 2022 年取得成功的基礎上再接再厲,並在 2023 年為所有利益相關者創造價值。

  • None of this is possible without the commitment and dedication of our teams. Thank you for safely working for our customers and delivering quality sustainable steel solutions. We can't stand still, and we have a lot more success together.

    沒有我們團隊的承諾和奉獻,這一切都是不可能的。感謝您安全地為我們的客戶工作並提供優質的可持續鋼鐵解決方案。我們不能停滯不前,我們一起取得了更多的成功。

  • And to our customers, thank you for your continued partnership. Your support motivates us every day to make U.S. Steel, the best steel company and to provide you our customer with profitable steel solutions for people and planet. We appreciate you, and thank you so very much for the increase in market share.

    對於我們的客戶,感謝您一直以來的合作夥伴關係。您的支持每天都在激勵我們將 U.S. Steel 打造成最好的鋼鐵公司,並為我們的客戶提供有益於人類和地球的有利可圖的鋼鐵解決方案。我們感謝您,非常感謝您增加了市場份額。

  • Thank you also to our investors. If you currently own U.S. Steel stock or considering to purchase, know that we remain committed to delivering on our strategy, determined to execute those plans as promised and focused on generating the best stockholder value improvements from our transition to best for all. Now let's get back to work safely.

    也感謝我們的投資者。如果您目前擁有美國鋼鐵公司的股票或考慮購買,請知道我們仍然致力於實現我們的戰略,決心按照承諾執行這些計劃,並專注於從我們向所有人的最佳過渡過程中產生最佳的股東價值改進。現在讓我們安全地回去工作吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. And that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation as you disconnect your lines. Have a good day, everyone.

    非常感謝。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您在斷開線路時的參與。祝大家有美好的一天。