威爾豪瑟 (WY) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser Second-Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Weyerhaeuser 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係副總裁安迪泰勒 (Andy Taylor)。謝謝您，泰勒先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's second quarter 2025 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website.

謝謝你，羅布。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 Weyerhaeuser 2025 年第二季的收益。本次電話會議將在 www.weyerhaeuser.com 進行網路直播。您也可以在我們的網站上找到我們的收益報告和簡報資料。

Please review the warning statements in our earnings release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

請查看我們的收益報告和簡報幻燈片中有關前瞻性陳述相關風險的警告聲明，因為前瞻性陳述將在本次電話會議中做出。我們將討論非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標，您可以在我們網站的收益資料中找到公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的對帳表。參加今天早上電話會議的有執行長 Devin Stockfish 和財務長 Davie Wold。現在我將把電話轉給 Devin Stockfish。

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported second quarter GAAP earnings of $87 million or $0.12 per diluted share on net sales of $1.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $336 million, a slight increase over the first quarter of 2025. These are solid results in light of the current challenging market backdrop.

謝謝，安迪。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。昨天，惠好公司公佈第二季 GAAP 收益為 8,700 萬美元，即每股收益 0.12 美元，淨銷售額為 19 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 總計 3.36 億美元，比 2025 年第一季略有增加。在當前充滿挑戰的市場背景下，這些都是可靠的業績。

And I'm pleased with the operational performance delivered by our teams. Before getting into the businesses, I'd like to comment briefly on an exciting growth opportunity within our Southern Timberlands portfolio. As we announced in May, we're acquiring 117,000 acres of high-quality timberlands in North Carolina and Virginia or $375 million. This acquisition represents a unique off-market opportunity to enhance our footprint in a strong and growing sawlog and fiber market in the US South.

我對我們團隊的營運表現感到滿意。在介紹業務之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們 Southern Timberlands 投資組合中的一個令人興奮的成長機會。正如我們 5 月宣布的那樣，我們將在北卡羅來納州和維吉尼亞州收購 117,000 英畝優質林地，價值 3.75 億美元。此次收購為我們提供了一個獨特的場外交易機會，可以擴大我們在美國南部強勁且不斷增長的鋸木和纖維市場中的影響力。

These timberlands are strategically located proximate to existing Weyerhaeuser Timberlands and mill operations in the region and are expected to deliver immediate and sustained portfolio-leading cash flows within our Southern Timberlands business. With an average annual free cash flow yield of 5.1% over the first five years, and that's a timber only number. In addition, we see significant optionality to capture upside from alternative value opportunities over time. The acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter, and the cash outlay for the transaction is expected to be predominantly sourced from divestitures of noncore timberlands, and we anticipate completing these transactions in a tax-efficient manner. As we've demonstrated over the last several years, we are committed to active portfolio management across our timber holdings and have remained disciplined in our approach to growing the value of our timberlands including through targeted acquisitions as well as divesting of nonstrategic acreage.

這些林地位於該地區現有的 Weyerhaeuser 林地和工廠附近的戰略位置，預計將為我們的南部林地業務帶來即時和持續的領先投資組合的現金流。前五年的平均年自由現金流收益率為 5.1%，這只是一個木材數字。此外，我們發現隨著時間的推移，從替代價值機會中獲取上行潛力具有很大的選擇性。這項收購預計將於第三季完成，交易的現金支出預計主要來自非核心林地的剝離，我們預計將以節稅的方式完成這些交易。正如我們在過去幾年中所展示的那樣，我們致力於對我們的木材資產進行積極的投資組合管理，並始終嚴格遵循增加林地價值的方法，包括透過有針對性的收購以及剝離非戰略性土地。

Upon closing of our latest North Carolina and Virginia acquisition, we will have achieved the multiyear target to grow our timberlands portfolio through $1 billion of investments by the end of 2025. We've also grown our lumber capacity and are moving forward with the compelling engineered wood products growth opportunity in Arkansas, all while maintaining a strong balance sheet. And importantly, we've returned a significant amount of cash back to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase over this period. Looking forward, we will continue to evaluate strategic opportunities that enhance the return profile for our timberlands and provide upside potential through our real estate and ENR business and we'll balance these activities with other levers across our capital allocation framework to drive superior long-term value for shareholders. Turning now to our second quarter business results.

在我們完成最新的北卡羅來納州和維吉尼亞州的收購後，我們將實現多年目標，即到 2025 年底透過 10 億美元的投資擴大我們的林地投資組合。我們也提高了木材產能，並正在推進阿肯色州引人注目的工程木製品成長機會，同時保持強勁的資產負債表。重要的是，在此期間，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了大量現金。展望未來，我們將繼續評估策略機遇，以提高我們林地的回報狀況，並透過我們的房地產和 ENR 業務提供上行潛力，並且我們將平衡這些活動與我們資本配置框架中的其他槓桿，以推動股東的長期卓越價值。現在來談談我們第二季的業務業績。

I'll begin with Timberlands on Pages 5 through eight of our earnings slides. Timberlands contributed $88 million to second quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $152 million, a $15 million decrease compared to the first quarter, largely driven by higher costs in our Western operations, which are typical in the spring and summer months. Turning to the Western domestic market, log demand was healthy at the outset of the second quarter, given seasonally lower log supply and steady takeaway of lumber. As the quarter progressed, log supply improved seasonally but demand waned as mills responded to a softening lumber market and elevated log inventories.

我將從第 5 頁到第 8 頁的收益投影片開始介紹 Timberlands。Timberlands 為第二季的收益貢獻了 8,800 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.52 億美元，與第一季相比減少了 1500 萬美元，這主要是由於西部業務成本增加所致，這在春季和夏季很常見。轉向西方國內市場，由於季節性原木供應量較低且木材需求穩定，第二季初的原木需求表現良好。隨著本季的進展，原木供應季節性改善，但隨著工廠對疲軟的木材市場和增加的原木庫存做出反應，需求減弱。

As a result, log prices were strongest in April and trended lower for the balance of the quarter. Given these dynamics, our average domestic sales realizations decreased slightly relative to the first quarter and fee harvest volumes were comparable. Our per unit log and haul costs increased as we made the seasonal transition to higher elevation sites and forestry and road costs were seasonally higher. Moving on to our export business to Japan. Log markets in Japan were stable in the second quarter.

因此，原木價格在四月份最為強勁，而本季剩餘時間則呈下降趨勢。有鑑於這些動態，我們的平均國內銷售實現額相對於第一季略有下降，費用收穫量則相當。隨著我們季節性地過渡到海拔較高的地區，並且林業和道路成本季節性地較高，我們的每單位原木和運輸成本也隨之增加。繼續開展我們對日本的出口業務。日本原木市場第二季維持穩定。

Demand for our logs continued to benefit from lower shipments and inventories of imported European lumber in the Japanese market, which has allowed our customers to take market share. As a result, our average sales realizations for export logs to Japan increased moderately compared to the first quarter. However, our sales volumes were moderately lower due to the timing of vessels. Turning to the South. Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands was $69 million, a slight decrease compared to the prior quarter.

由於日本市場進口歐洲木材的出貨量和庫存減少，我們原木的需求持續成長，這使得我們的客戶佔據了市場份額。因此，我們對日本出口原木的平均銷售實現量與第一季相比略有增加。然而，由於船舶時間安排的原因，我們的銷售量略有下降。轉向南方。Southern Timberlands 的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,900 萬美元，與上一季相比略有下降。

Despite a reduction in log supply resulting from wet weather conditions, southern sawlog demand was muted in the second quarter as mills continue to align production with lower pricing and takeaway of lumber. In contrast, demand for our fiber logs improved as mills transition from spring maintenance outages. In general, takeaway for our logs remained steady given our delivered programs across the region, and our average sales realizations increased slightly compared to the first quarter. Given the weather than normal conditions, our forestry and road costs and fee harvest volumes were lower than our initial expectations. That said, our harvest volumes increased slightly compared to the prior quarter.

儘管由於潮濕的天氣導致原木供應減少，但由於工廠繼續根據較低的價格和木材外賣調整產量，第二季度南方鋸木需求仍然低迷。相較之下，隨著工廠從春季維護停工過渡，對我們的纖維原木的需求有所改善。總體而言，考慮到我們在整個地區實施的項目，我們的原木外賣量保持穩定，而且我們的平均銷售實現量與第一季相比略有增加。由於天氣狀況不如正常情況，我們的林業和道路成本以及費用採伐量低於我們最初的預期。也就是說，我們的收穫量與上一季相比略有增加。

Per unit log and haul costs increased moderately. In the North, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly due to lower sales volumes associated with seasonal spring breakup conditions. Turning now to our Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources business on Pages 9 and 10. Real Estate and ENR contributed $106 million to second quarter earnings and $143 million to adjusted EBITDA. Second quarter EBITDA was $61 million higher than the prior quarter, largely driven by the timing and mix of real estate sales.

每單位原木和運輸成本適度增加。在北方，由於季節性春季分手條件導致銷售量下降，調整後的 EBITDA 略有下降。現在我們來看看第 9 頁和第 10 頁的房地產、能源和自然資源業務。房地產和 ENR 為第二季收益貢獻了 1.06 億美元，為調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻了 1.43 億美元。第二季的 EBITDA 比上一季高出 6,100 萬美元，主要得益於房地產銷售的時間和組合。

We continue to benefit from healthy demand for real estate properties, resulting in high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value. Turning briefly to our Natural Climate Solutions business. During the second quarter, we received approval on our third forest carbon project and currently have six additional projects in progress. We continue to see solid demand for our credits given our commitment to delivering and developing projects that meet high standards for quality and integrity. For 2025, we still expect a significant increase in credit generation and sales relative to the last couple of years, and we remain on track to reach $100 million of adjusted EBITDA from our Natural Climate Solutions business by year-end.

我們繼續受益於對房地產的健康需求，從而產生高價值交易，其價值遠高於木材價值。簡要介紹一下我們的自然氣候解決方案業務。在第二季度，我們的第三個森林碳匯項目獲得了批准，目前還有六個項目正在進行中。由於我們致力於交付和開發符合高品質和誠信標準的項目，我們繼續看到對我們的信貸的強勁需求。對於 2025 年，我們仍然預期信貸生成和銷售額將比過去幾年大幅增加，我們仍有望在年底前實現自然氣候解決方案業務 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Now moving to Wood Products on Pages 11 through 13. Wood Products contributed $46 million to second quarter earnings and $101 million to adjusted EBITDA. Starting with lumber. After a steady increase in the first quarter, the framing lumber composite peaked in early April and trended lower through late June. This was driven by cautious buyer sentiment in response to elevated macroeconomic uncertainty and a softer-than-expected spring building season.

現在轉到第 11 至 13 頁的木製品。木製品業務為第二季收益貢獻了 4,600 萬美元，為調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻了 1.01 億美元。從木材開始。在第一季穩步增長之後，框架木材綜合價格在 4 月初達到峰值，並在 6 月底呈下降趨勢。這是由於宏觀經濟不確定性增加以及春季建築季節低於預期而導致的謹慎買家情緒所致。

Across the North American regions, pricing for Western SPF lumber has steadily increased since mid-May, largely as a result of concerns around the upcoming increase in duties on Canadian shipments to the US. Over the same period, pricing for Southern yellow pine lumber decreased significantly as supply outpaced demand. This dynamic was compounded by adverse weather conditions in certain southern geographies which impacted building activity in the second quarter. That said, Southern lumber prices have shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks. For our lumber business, second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $11 million, a $29 million decrease compared to the first quarter, primarily driven by lower product pricing and slightly higher log costs.

在北美地區，西部 SPF 木材的價格自 5 月中旬以來穩步上漲，這主要是由於人們擔心即將增加加拿大輸往美國的木材關稅。同一時期，由於供應超過需求，南方黃松木材的價格大幅下降。南部某些地區的惡劣天氣條件加劇了這一動態，影響了第二季的建築活動。儘管如此，南方木材價格近幾週已出現穩定跡象。對於我們的木材業務，第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1,100 萬美元，與第一季相比減少了 2,900 萬美元，主要原因是產品價格下降和原木成本略有上升。

Our average sales realizations decreased by 2% in the second quarter which was largely in line with the framing lumber composite. Our sales volumes increased and unit manufacturing costs were comparable. Finally, on lumber, I'll make a few comments on the recent announcement to sell our Princeton mill in British Columbia. While these decisions are never easy to make, we think this is the best outcome for our Princeton operations. The buyer is local with deep roots in the region, and we expect a seamless transition that will position the facility for future success in a challenging operating environment.

我們第二季的平均銷售實現額下降了 2％，這與框架木材綜合價格基本一致。我們的銷售量增加了，而單位製造成本卻維持不變。最後，關於木材，我想就我們最近宣佈出售位於不列顛哥倫比亞省的普林斯頓工廠發表一些評論。雖然做出這些決定並不容易，但我們認為這對我們的普林斯頓業務來說是最好的結果。買家是當地人，在該地區有著深厚的根基，我們期待無縫過渡，讓工廠在充滿挑戰的營運環境中獲得未來的成功。

The purchase price is approximately CAD 120 million and includes the mill, all associated timber license assets in British Columbia and the value of working capital, which will be subject to customary purchase price adjustments at closing. We expect the mill portion of the transaction to close in the third quarter and the forest tenures to follow over the ensuing months. Upon closing, we expect to recognize a gain on the sale and incur a tax liability of approximately CAD 15 million.

收購價格約為 1.2 億加元，包括工廠、不列顛哥倫比亞省所有相關的木材許可資產以及營運資金的價值，這些將在交易結束時根據慣例進行收購價格調整。我們預計該交易的工廠部分將在第三季完成，森林使用權部分將在接下來的幾個月內完成。交易完成後，我們預計將確認銷售收益並承擔約 1,500 萬加元的稅負。

I do want to express my deep appreciation to our dedicated employees who contributed to the success of our Princeton operation over the years and to the local community who has been incredibly supportive of our operations and people. It's worth noting that our other operations in Canada will not be affected by this transaction, and we will continue to serve customers from our two lumber mills in Alberta. So now turning to OSB. Benchmark pricing for OSB decreased significantly in the second quarter, largely driven by softening demand from new home construction activity and ample supply. Pricing did stabilize by quarter end and has remained steady through July.

我確實要向多年來為普林斯頓業務的成功做出貢獻的敬業員工以及對我們的業務和員工給予大力支持的當地社區表示深深的感謝。值得注意的是，我們在加拿大的其他業務不會受到此交易的影響，我們將繼續透過位於阿爾伯塔省的兩家木材廠為客戶提供服務。現在轉向 OSB。OSB 的基準價格在第二季大幅下降，主要原因是新房建設活動需求疲軟以及供應充足。到季度末價格確實趨於穩定，並且在整個 7 月保持穩定。

For our OSB business, adjusted EBITDA was $30 million, a $29 million decrease compared to the first quarter primarily due to lower product pricing. Our average sales realizations decreased by 12%, which was favorable to the OSB composite. This is largely due to the length of our order files, which results in a lag effect for OSB realizations. Our sales volumes and fiber costs were slightly higher compared to the prior quarter and unit manufacturing costs increased due to additional downtime for planned annual maintenance. Engineered Wood Products adjusted EBITDA was $57 million, a slight increase compared to the first quarter.

對於我們的 OSB 業務，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3000 萬美元，與第一季相比減少了 2900 萬美元，主要原因是產品價格下降。我們的平均銷售實現金額下降了 12%，這對 OSB 複合材料有利。這主要是因為我們的訂單文件太長，導致 OSB 實現出現滯後效應。我們的銷售量和纖維成本與上一季相比略有上升，並且由於計劃年度維護的額外停機時間導致單位製造成本增加。工程木製品調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,700 萬美元，與第一季相比略有增加。

This was driven by a seasonal increase in sales volumes across all products and lower raw material and unit manufacturing costs. Notably, our second quarter EWP results reflect an improvement in operating posture at our MDF facility in Montana, which experienced a multi-week outage in the first quarter. These favorable drivers were partially offset by lower average sales realizations across most EWP products as new home construction activity was softer than our initial expectations coming into the second quarter. In Distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly compared to the first quarter as seasonally higher sales volumes were offset by lower pricing for commodity and EWP products. With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our third quarter outlook.

這是由於所有產品銷售量的季節性增長以及原材料和單位製造成本的下降。值得注意的是，我們第二季的 EWP 結果反映了我們位於蒙大拿州的 MDF 工廠營運狀況的改善，該工廠在第一季經歷了數週的停產。由於新房屋建設活動低於我們最初對第二季的預期，大多數 EWP 產品的平均銷售實現率較低，部分抵消了這些有利的驅動因素。在分銷方面，調整後的 EBITDA 與第一季相比略有下降，因為季節性銷售量增加被商品和 EWP 產品價格下降所抵消。說完這些，我將把電話轉給戴維，討論一些財務事項和我們第三季的展望。

Thanks, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 15. In the second quarter, we generated $396 million of cash from operations. We ended the quarter with approximately $600 million of cash and total debt of just under $5.2 billion. Share repurchase activity totaled $100 million in the second quarter, representing our highest quarterly level since late 2022.

謝謝，德文，大家早安。我將從關鍵的財務項目開始，這些項目總結在第 15 頁。第二季度，我們的經營活動產生了 3.96 億美元的現金。本季結束時，我們的現金約為 6 億美元，總債務略低於 52 億美元。第二季股票回購總額達 1 億美元，創下 2022 年底以來的最高季度水準。

These shares were repurchased at an average price of $25.74. In May, we completed our previous $1 billion share repurchase program, which was authorized in September of 2021 and announced a new $1 billion authority going forward. Reflecting on our cash return actions since the beginning of 2021, including dividends and share repurchase, we've returned more than $5.7 billion of cash back to shareholders. Over a similar period, we've continued investing in our businesses at a meaningful level, deployed capital towards strategic growth opportunities and improved our balance sheet. These are notable achievements that underscore the durability of our portfolio and the flexibility of our capital allocation framework across market cycles.

這些股票回購的平均價格為25.74美元。 5月，我們完成了先前10億美元的股票回購計劃，該計劃於2021年9月獲得授權，並宣布未來將獲得新的10億美元授權。回顧我們自 2021 年初以來的現金回報行動，包括股利和股票回購，我們已向股東返還了超過 57 億美元的現金。在相似的時期內，我們繼續對我們的業務進行有意義的投資，將資本部署到策略成長機會並改善我們的資產負債表。這些顯著的成就凸顯了我們的投資組合的持久性以及我們的資本配置框架在整個市場週期中的靈活性。

Looking ahead, our new authorization provides capacity for future opportunistic share repurchase activity and represents an important ongoing lever for driving long-term value for our shareholders. Capital expenditures were $107 million in the second quarter, which includes $22 million related to the construction of our EWP facility in Monticello, Arkansas. Specific to Monticello, the project is on track, and we broke ground on the facility in June. As we previously communicated, the total investment for the facility is expected to be approximately $500 million which will be incurred through 2027. For full year 2025, we anticipate approximately $130 million of investments for Monticello.

展望未來，我們的新授權為未來的機會性股票回購活動提供了能力，並成為推動股東長期價值的重要持續槓桿。第二季的資本支出為 1.07 億美元，其中包括與在阿肯色州蒙蒂塞洛建設 EWP 設施相關的 2,200 萬美元。具體到蒙蒂塞洛，該項目正在按計劃進行，我們已於六月破土動工。正如我們之前所傳達的，該設施的總投資預計約為 5 億美元，並將於 2027 年完成。到 2025 年全年，我們預計對蒙蒂塞洛的投資約為 1.3 億美元。

And as a reminder, CapEx associated with this project will be excluded for purposes of calculating adjusted FAD as used in our cash return framework. Excluding CapEx for Monticello, we have lowered guidance for our typical CapEx program from $440 million to approximately $400 million in 2025. It's worth noting that we are always evaluating our capital allocation levers and have the flexibility within our framework to make adjustments in response to market conditions, alternate uses of cash and to fund growth opportunities. Second quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 14. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by $22 million compared to first quarter primarily attributable to changes in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO.

需要提醒的是，在計算現金回報框架中使用的調整後 FAD 時，將排除與該項目相關的資本支出。不包括蒙蒂塞洛的資本支出，我們已將典型資本支出計畫的指導金額從 4.4 億美元下調至 2025 年的約 4 億美元。值得注意的是，我們始終在評估我們的資本配置槓桿，並在我們的框架內靈活地根據市場狀況、現金的替代用途和成長機會進行調整。我們的未分配項目的第二季結果總結在第 14 頁。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 與第一季相比增加了 2,200 萬美元，主要歸因於部門間利潤抵銷和後進先出法的變化。

Looking forward, key outlook items for the third quarter are presented on Page 17 and updates to full year outlook items are presented on Page 18. In our Timberlands business, we expect third quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $10 million lower compared to the second quarter of 2025, largely driven by lower sales realizations and higher costs in the West. As a reminder, results for our Timberlands business are generally at their lowest level in the third quarter, given seasonal dynamics. Turning to the West. We expect domestic log demand and pricing to face downward pressure in the third quarter as mills continue to carry elevated log inventories and navigate a softer lumber market.

展望未來，第三季的關鍵展望項目列於第 17 頁，全年展望項目的更新列於第 18 頁。在我們的 Timberlands 業務中，我們預計第三季收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將比 2025 年第二季減少約 1000 萬美元，這主要是由於西部地區的銷售實現額下降和成本上升。提醒一下，考慮到季節性因素，我們的 Timberlands 業務的表現在第三季通常處於最低水平。轉向西方。我們預計，由於工廠繼續保持較高的原木庫存並應對較疲軟的木材市場，第三季國內原木需求和價格將面臨下行壓力。

As a result, we expect our domestic sales realizations to be moderately lower compared to the second quarter. However, limitations on log supply during wildfire season and the effect of increased duties on Canadian lumber imports could drive more favorable pricing as the quarter progresses. We anticipate seasonally higher forestry and road costs as we do a significant amount of this work over the summer months and per unit log and haul costs are expected to increase given higher elevation harvest activity that's typical this time of year. Our fee harvest volumes are expected to be slightly higher compared to the second quarter. Briefly on our log export program to Japan.

因此，我們預期國內銷售實現額將比第二季略低。然而，隨著本季的進展，野火季節原木供應的限制以及加拿大木材進口關稅增加的影響可能會推動更優惠的價格。我們預計林業和道路成本將隨著季節變化而增加，因為我們在夏季進行了大量工作，而且由於每年這個時候通常有較高海拔的採伐活動，預計每單位原木和運輸成本也會增加。我們的費用收穫量預計將比第二季略高。簡單介紹一下我們對日本的原木出口計畫。

Imports of European lumber have been lower year-to-date relative to 2024, allowing our customers to take market share. As a result, we anticipate steady demand for our logs in the third quarter. Our sales volumes are expected to increase moderately, largely due to the timing of vessels and our average sales realizations are expected to increase slightly. Turning to the South. We expect sawlog markets to moderate somewhat in the third quarter as log supply improves with drier weather conditions.

與 2024 年相比，今年迄今歐洲木材的進口量較低，這使得我們的客戶能夠佔領市場份額。因此，我們預計第三季對原木的需求將保持穩定。我們的銷售量預計將適度成長，這主要歸功於船舶的時間安排，我們的平均銷售實現量預計將略有增加。轉向南方。我們預計，隨著天氣乾燥導致原木供應增加，鋸木市場在第三季將有所緩和。

In contrast, Southern fiber markets are expected to remain relatively stable outside of a few localized regions with softer demand due to reduced capacity or elevated log inventories. On balance, takeaway for our logs is expected to remain steady given our delivered programs across the region, and we anticipate our sawlog pricing to be comparable to the second quarter. That said, our average sales realizations are expected to decrease slightly, largely due to a higher mix of fiber logs from increased thinning activity. Given favorable weather conditions, we anticipate our fee harvest volumes will be slightly higher compared to the second quarter.

相較之下，除因產能下降或原木庫存增加導致需求疲軟的幾個局部地區外，南方纖維市場預計將保持相對穩定。總的來說，考慮到我們在整個地區實施的項目，預計我們的原木外賣量將保持穩定，我們預計鋸木價格將與第二季相當。也就是說，我們的平均銷售實現額預計會略有下降，主要是由於間伐活動增加導致纖維原木的混合比例增加。鑑於有利的天氣條件，我們預計我們的費用收穫量將比第二季略高。

Our forestry and road costs are expected to increase as weather than normal spring conditions resulted in certain activities shifting to the third quarter. And per unit log and haul costs are expected to be comparable. In the north, our fee harvest volumes are expected to be significantly higher as we have fully transitioned from spring breakup conditions, and we anticipate moderately lower sales realizations due to mix. Moving to our Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment. Real estate markets have remained solid year-to-date, and we continue to anticipate a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value.

由於春季天氣狀況與正常情況不同，導致某些活動轉移到第三季度，我們的林業和道路成本預計會增加。預計每單位原木和運輸成本將是相當的。在北方，由於我們已經完全擺脫了春季分手的狀況，我們的費用收穫量預計會大幅增加，而且我們預計由於混合因素，銷售實現量會略有下降。轉向我們的房地產、能源和自然資源部門。今年迄今為止，房地產市場一直保持穩健，我們預計交易量將持續成長，木材價值將大幅溢價。

For the segment, we continue to expect full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $350 million, which includes our target to reach $100 million of EBITDA in our Natural Climate Solutions business. That said, we expect third quarter adjusted EBITDA will be approximately $80 million lower and earnings will be approximately $60 million lower than the second quarter of 2025 due to the timing and mix of real estate sales. For context, it's common for our real estate results to be more heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. In our Wood Products segment, we expect third quarter earnings before special items and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the second quarter of 2025 excluding the effect of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB. Given the softer-than-expected demand environment over the last several months, composite pricing for lumber and OSB declined steadily during the second quarter.

對於該部門，我們繼續預計 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 約為 3.5 億美元，其中包括我們在自然氣候解決方案業務中達到 1 億美元 EBITDA 的目標。話雖如此，由於房地產銷售的時間和組合，我們預計第三季調整後的 EBITDA 將比 2025 年第二季減少約 8,000 萬美元，收益將減少約 6,000 萬美元。就背景而言，我們的房地產業績通常更集中在上半年。在我們的木製品部門，我們預計第三季扣除特殊項目和調整後 EBITDA 前的收益將與 2025 年第二季相當（不包括木材和 OSB 平均銷售實現變化的影響）。鑑於過去幾個月需求環境弱於預期，第二季木材和定向刨花板的綜合價格穩定下降。

As a result, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for both products are moderately lower than the second quarter averages. Notably, we have seen signs of stabilization in composite pricing over the last several weeks. Looking ahead, we expect demand for both products to remain at current levels into the third quarter. That said, duties on Canadian lumber shipments to the US are expected to increase meaningfully.

因此，我們兩種產品的當前和本季平均銷售實現量略低於第二季的平均值。值得注意的是，過去幾週我們看到了綜合價格趨於穩定的跡象。展望未來，我們預計這兩種產品的需求在第三季仍將維持在目前水準。儘管如此，預計加拿大對美國的木材出口關稅將大幅增加。

This dynamic, along with lean channel inventories could provide some support for North American lumber pricing in the coming months, and potentially serve as a catalyst for incremental substitution towards Southern Yellow Pine. In addition, on the demand side, we could see an increase in repair and remodel activity in the south as temperatures moderate into the fall and more broadly should the Fed cut interest rates. For our lumber and OSB businesses, we expect sales volumes and unit manufacturing costs to be comparable to the second quarter. Log and fiber costs are expected to be slightly lower. For our Engineered Wood Products business, we continue to anticipate close alignment between product demand and single-family homebuilding activity, which has been softer than expected year-to-date.

這種動態加上精益的渠道庫存可能會為未來幾個月的北美木材定價提供一些支撐，並可能成為南方黃松逐步替代的催化劑。此外，在需求方面，隨著秋季氣溫轉暖，以及聯準會降息，我們可能會看到南方地區的維修和改造活動增加。對於我們的木材和定向刨花板業務，我們預計銷售量和單位製造成本將與第二季相當。預計原木和纖維成本將略有下降。對於我們的工程木製品業務，我們繼續預期產品需求和單戶住宅建築活動將緊密結合，而今年迄今為止，單戶住宅建築活動比預期要疲軟。

As a result, we expect lower sales volumes for most products in the third quarter and slightly lower average sales realizations as previously determined price adjustments take effect in certain markets. Raw material costs are expected to decrease primarily for OSB web stock. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the second quarter. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

因此，我們預計第三季大多數產品的銷售量將下降，平均銷售實現量將略有下降，因為先前確定的價格調整在某些市場生效。預計原料成本將主要下降，即 OSB 板材的成本。對於我們的分銷業務，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將與第二季相當。說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給德文，期待您的提問。

Thanks, Davie. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets. Starting with housing. After a reasonably solid first quarter, housing starts have softened over the last few months, total starts averaging 1.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter and single-family starts below 1 million units. While the broader economy appears to be holding up reasonably well, the combination of weaker consumer confidence in elevated mortgage rates has been a headwind for housing activity.

謝謝，戴維。在今天上午結束之前，我想對住房和維修及改造市場發表一些評論。從住房開始。在第一季表現相當穩健之後，過去幾個月住房開工量有所放緩，第二季經季節性調整後，房屋開工總量平均為 130 萬套，獨棟住宅開工量低於 100 萬套。儘管整體經濟似乎保持良好，但消費者信心減弱和抵押貸款利率上升對房地產活動構成了阻力。

As a result, the spring building season was softer than we were expecting at the outset of the year and I suspect we'll continue to see some choppiness in the housing market in the near term. Based on conversations with our homebuilder customers, the biggest issue right now is consumer confidence and general uncertainty around trade policy inflation and unemployment. That said, there are potential catalysts for improvement in the second half of the year. For example, we now have clarity on the tax bill and we could see additional trade deals emerge in the coming days and weeks, providing more certainty around trade and tariff policy. We might also get some support from the Fed on interest rates later this year.

因此，春季建築季節比我們年初預期的要疲軟，我預計短期內房地產市場將繼續波動。根據我們與房屋建築商客戶的對話，目前最大的問題是消費者信心以及貿易政策通膨和失業的普遍不確定性。儘管如此，下半年仍有一些潛在的改善因素。例如，我們現在對稅收法案有了清晰的認識，我們可能會在未來幾天和幾週內看到更多的貿易協議出現，從而為貿易和關稅政策提供更多的確定性。今年稍後我們可能還會從聯準會獲得一些利率的支持。

So we'll have to see how these things play out, but clarity in these areas could alleviate some of the uncertainty that's been weighing on consumers. But putting current market conditions aside, the longer-term fundamentals remain intact for a strong housing market, supported by favorable demographic tailwinds and a vastly underbuilt housing stock. In addition, the inventory of existing homes for sale will likely remain below historical levels given elevated rates. And on a positive note, there seems to be a growing appreciation that government policies need to better accommodate building activity to address housing shortages across the country. All of this will ultimately support healthy demand for housing in the years to come.

因此，我們必須觀察這些事情如何發展，但這些領域的清晰度可以減輕一些一直困擾消費者的不確定性。但拋開當前的市場狀況，在人口結構有利和住房存量嚴重不足的支撐下，長期來看，強勁的房地產市場基本面依然完好無損。此外，由於利率上升，現有待售房屋庫存可能仍將低於歷史水準。從積極的一面來看，人們似乎越來越意識到政府政策需要更好地適應建築活動，以解決全國的住房短缺問題。所有這些最終將支持未來幾年對住房的健康需求。

Turning to the repair and remodel market. Activity has been softer year-to-date relative to 2024, largely driven by many of the same factors impacting the residential construction market. In addition, R&R activity continues to be impacted by lower turnover of existing homes given higher mortgage rates and the lock-in effect. In the near term, we'll likely continue to see more muted R&R environment until consumer confidence improves and interest rates move lower. I would note, however, that we typically see a seasonal uptick in repair and remodel activity in the South as temperatures moderate into the fall.

轉向維修和改造市場。與 2024 年相比，今年迄今的活動較為疲軟，這主要是受到影響住宅建築市場的許多相同因素的影響。此外，由於抵押貸款利率上升和鎖定效應，R&R 活動繼續受到現有房屋週轉率下降的影響。短期內，我們可能會繼續看到更低迷的 R&R 環境，直到消費者信心改善且利率下降。不過，我要指出的是，隨著秋季氣溫轉暖，我們通常會看到南方的維修和改造活動出現季節性上升。

And looking further out, we continue to expect favorable demand fundamentals for R&R activity, including significantly increased levels of home equity and an aging housing stock. In addition, we've largely worked through the pull forward of projects that occurred during the pandemic and in fact, are now seeing deferrals of R&R projects. So this should be a tailwind for repair and remodel activity as the macro environment improves. In closing, we delivered solid operating performance in the second quarter, notwithstanding the challenging market backdrop. We continue to demonstrate our commitment to returning meaningful amounts of cash back to shareholders, while also capitalizing on strategic portfolio opportunities.

展望未來，我們繼續預期 R&R 活動的需求基本面將保持良好，包括房屋淨值水準的大幅提高和房屋存量的老化。此外，我們基本上已經解決了疫情期間專案的提前問題，事實上，現在 R&R 專案正在被推遲。因此，隨著宏觀環境的改善，這應該會成為修復和改造活動的順風。最後，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，我們在第二季仍取得了穩健的營運表現。我們將繼續履行向股東返還大量現金的承諾，同時利用策略性投資組合機會。

Notably, we significantly increased our share repurchase activity in the second quarter and we continue to enhance the value of our timberlands portfolio with high quality and strategically located acreage. Looking forward, we're well positioned to navigate a range of market conditions in the near term, and we remain confident in the longer-term demand fundamentals that support our businesses. Our balance sheet is strong, and we continue to focus on driving operational excellence, serving our customers, enhancing our unmatched portfolio and creating long-term value for shareholders through our disciplined and flexible capital allocation framework. With that, I think we can open it up for questions.

值得注意的是，我們在第二季度大幅增加了股票回購活動，並繼續透過高品質和戰略位置的林地面積來提升我們的林地組合的價值。展望未來，我們已做好準備，在短期內應對各種市場狀況，並且我們對支持我們業務的長期需求基本面仍然充滿信心。我們的資產負債表強勁，我們將繼續專注於推動卓越運營，服務客戶，增強我們無與倫比的投資組合，並透過我們嚴謹而靈活的資本配置框架為股東創造長期價值。有了這些，我想我們就可以開始提問了。

Thank you We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝 我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員指示）

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the Wood Products segment. When you think about the outlook and what the builders are telling us in terms of guiding to the lower end of their closings range for this year, talking about perhaps going into 2026 with less inventory on the ground as well, how are you thinking about balancing your capacity across the wood products space? And how are you also thinking about any incremental opportunities in terms of OpEx 2.0 to perhaps improve or sustain the profitability in that part of the business?

謝謝。大家早安。我的第一個問題是關於木製品的部分。當您考慮前景以及建築商告訴我們的今年成交量下限指導，並談到到 2026 年地面庫存可能也會減少時，您如何考慮平衡整個木製品領域的產能？您如何看待 OpEx 2.0 方面的任何增量機會，以改善或維持該部分業務的獲利能力？

Yes. Great question, Sue. Maybe I'll start with the OpEx piece and then get to the broader question. For us, operational excellence is just deeply built into the DNA of the organization at this point. And so that's something that we're focused on really across market cycles.

是的。蘇，這個問題問得好。也許我會先討論營運支出部分，然後再討論更廣泛的問題。對我們來說，卓越運作已經深深融入組織的 DNA 中。因此，這是我們在整個市場週期中真正關注的事情。

It becomes particularly important when you're in a softer demand environment to make sure that you stay in the right spot on the cost curve. And so we're very focused on that. I think you can see that over the last handful of years with our relative operating performance really being industry-leading across our manufacturing businesses. super important. We're going to stay focused on that.

當你處於需求較弱的環境時，確保你處於成本曲線的正確位置變得特別重要。因此我們非常關注這一點。我想您可以看到，在過去的幾年裡，我們的相對營運表現確實在整個製造業務中處於行業領先地位。非常重要。我們將繼續關注這一點。

And I do think that, that gives us a lot more flexibility to operate through the down cycle. As we think about the rest of the year and into 2026, certainly, at present, you can see this in the builder sentiment numbers. There's not as much optimism as we had hoped coming into the year. certainly, the housing market has been softer than we had expected, and so you can see builders that are adjusting to that. So to the extent that, that holds on for a while longer, I think we're well positioned to serve that market.

我確實認為，這為我們度過經濟下行週期提供了更大的靈活性。當我們考慮今年剩餘時間和 2026 年時，當然，目前，您可以從建築商信心數據中看到這一點。進入今年，人們的樂觀情緒並不像我們所希望的那樣。當然，房地產市場比我們預期的要疲軟，所以你可以看到建築商正在適應這種情況。因此，如果這種情況持續一段時間，我認為我們已做好準備，為該市場提供服務。

we'll always keep an eye on what our production is versus the demand. But again, given where we are on the cost curve, I think that gives us the opportunity to really run more during a down market than perhaps others may. So we're going to continue to keep focused on that. I think obviously, in these down markets, a lot of the things that we've been doing over the last handful of years with the balance sheet with cost control, with the OpEx, the things that we have been doing to just make sure that we're in a good position in a down market, it gives us the opportunity to do things opportunistically, whether it's share repurchase or acquisitions, et cetera. And so we'll see how long this lasts, but we're well positioned to navigate it and importantly, to take advantage of those opportunities in a down market when we see those.

我們將始終關注我們的生產與需求之間的關係。但是，考慮到我們所處的成本曲線，我認為這使我們有機會在低迷的市場中比其他公司獲得更多收益。因此我們將繼續關注這一點。我認為，顯然，在低迷的市場中，過去幾年我們一直在做很多事情，包括資產負債表、成本控制、營運支出，我們一直在做的事情只是為了確保我們在低迷的市場中處於有利地位，這給了我們機會去做一些事情，無論是股票回購還是收購等等。因此，我們將拭目以待這種情況會持續多久，但我們已準備好應對這種情況，而且重要的是，當市場低迷時，我們能夠抓住這些機會。

That's how you drive value in cyclical businesses.

這就是在周期性業務中推動價值的方式。

Yes. Okay. That's great color, Devin. And then maybe turning to timberlands. It's exciting to see the deal that you announced in North Carolina and Virginia.

是的。好的。太漂亮的顏色了，德文。然後也許轉向林地。看到你們在北卡羅來納州和維吉尼亞州宣布的協議令人興奮。

Can you talk a bit about just the overall environment for timberland acquisitions? And anything that you're also seeing perhaps on the divestiture side, just how that is coming together?

能否簡單談談林地收購的整體環境？您在資產剝離方面可能還看到了什麼，進展如何？

Sure, Sue. So I described the timberlands market right now is solid. We generally think about the typical range of activity being in that $2 billion to $3 billion range annually. It's probably going to trend toward the lower end of that range this year, but there have been a handful of larger high-quality packages that have come to market of late, and there's plenty of capital out there pursuing these transactions. There's been a significant amount of capital raised over the past couple of years with a mandate to invest in this asset class.

當然，蘇。所以我認為目前的林地市場是穩固的。我們通常認為，典型的活動範圍是每年 20 億至 30 億美元。今年它可能會趨向於該範圍的低端，但最近已經有少數大型高品質套餐進入市場，並且有大量資本正在進行這些交易。過去幾年來，已經籌集了大量資金，用於投資這一資產類別。

Those dollars have largely not been placed. So our expectation is that we're going to continue to see solid demand for timberland packages in light of that. With respect to the progress on our divestitures, as you know, we announced with the recent timberland transaction acquisition that we would be funding that through the divestiture of noncore timberlands. So we generally don't comment on transactions that are not yet at a definitive agreement. But what I can say, as I just mentioned, there's strong interest out there in the market for this asset class.

這些資金大部分尚未到位。因此，我們預計，有鑑於此，我們將繼續看到對林地包裹的強勁需求。關於我們資產剝離的進展，如您所知，我們宣布最近的林地交易收購將透過剝離非核心林地來為其提供資金。因此，我們通常不會對尚未達成最終協議的交易發表評論。但我可以說，正如我剛才提到的，市場對這個資產類別有著濃厚的興趣。

And so we expect to be able to deliver strong value on those divestitures, and we'll update you as appropriate moving forward.

因此，我們希望能夠在這些資產剝離中實現巨大的價值，並且我們會適時向您通報最新進展。

Okay. Thank you both and good luck with the quarter.

好的。謝謝你們，祝本季好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Hey, good morning, Devin and Dave. This is Brad Barton, on for George. Just quickly, when we look at EWP prices, there seems to have been a trend downward for some time now. And you're guiding Q3 lower again. So just wondering what your thoughts on what you think the catalyst is that ultimately slows and then reverse that trend, so we can see prices inflect higher? And I guess, when do you think that happens?

嘿，早上好，德文和戴夫。這是布拉德巴頓，代替喬治。簡單來說，當我們查看 EWP 價格時，似乎已經出現了一段時間的下降趨勢。您又將第三季的預期下調了。所以只是想知道您認為最終減緩並扭轉這一趨勢的催化劑是什麼，以便我們可以看到價格上漲？我想，您認為那什麼時候會發生？

Yes. I mean, so as you know, EWP is largely driven by what's going on in residential construction and in particular, single-family. And I think the big catalyst here for why you've seen some pressure on pricing has just really been -- we've seen a slowdown in single-family construction here really over the last 18 to 24 months. And so that has put some pressure on pricing. I think you combine that with just the overall concern with the homebuilders on margin, there's pressure to keep those prices in check.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知，EWP 很大程度上受到住宅建設（特別是單戶住宅建設）的推動。我認為，造成定價壓力的一個主要原因是——過去 18 到 24 個月，我們看到這裡的獨戶住宅建設確實有所放緩。這給定價帶來了一些壓力。我認為，如果將這一點與房屋建築商對利潤的整體擔憂結合起來，就會產生控制價格的壓力。

And so you've seen that. The big catalyst to move that back in the other direction really are twofold. Obviously, to the extent that single-family housing activity picks up, that will be a catalyst. Around the margins, R&R activity as well. I think the other piece that can help with that, and we're actively working on this, during the pandemic, there was some conversion from EWP over to Open Web.

所以你已經看到了。推動這一趨勢向另一個方向發展的重大催化劑實際上有兩個。顯然，隨著單戶住宅活動的回暖，這將成為一種催化劑。在邊緣處，R&R 活動也是如此。我認為另一個可以幫助解決這個問題的方法，而且我們正在積極地致力於此，在疫情期間，我們進行了一些從 EWP 到 Open Web 的轉換。

And that has been a little bit more challenging to convert back to EWP. The lower lumber prices have not helped that, but that's something that we're actively pursuing that could have some benefit to the upside. In the interim -- and look, housing activity is going to return to a better place. We know that. The time line is always a question.

而轉換回 EWP 則更具挑戰性。較低的木材價格對此沒有幫助，但這是我們正在積極追求的，可能會帶來一些好處。在此期間，住房活動將會恢復到更好的狀態。我們知道這一點。時間軸始終是一個問題。

But directionally, we know the fundamental drivers for strong housing still remain in place. And so that market is going to return to a better place. But in the interim, we're going to be out there supporting our customers. We have I believe the best product line in the industry. We have a great service model.

但從方向上看，我們知道強勁住房市場的基本驅動力仍然存在。因此市場將會恢復到更好的狀態。但在此期間，我們將繼續為客戶提供支援。我相信我們擁有業內最好的產品線。我們有一個很棒的服務模式。

We have a good cost structure. So we're positioned to navigate this, and we'll be out working on taking market share, converting markets and all of those things that you would expect. And at some point, we'll see pricing start to pick up on the other side.

我們擁有良好的成本結構。因此，我們已做好準備應對這項挑戰，並將努力搶佔市場份額、轉換市場以及實現您所期望的所有目標。在某個時候，我們會看到價格開始上漲。

Great. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up. On the real estate side, prices per acre, they seem to have been appreciating over the last five quarters or so. So is that just simply due to mix and timing? Or is there something larger at play, maybe like the optionality on Climate Solutions related businesses?

偉大的。謝謝。這只是一次快速的跟進。在房地產方面，每英畝的價格似乎在過去五個季度左右一直在升值。那麼這僅僅是由於混合和時間安排嗎？或者有更大的因素在起作用，例如氣候解決方案相關業務的選擇權？

And I guess, maybe related to that question, if we look out over the next year or so, where do you estimate the appropriate price per acre to be?

我想，也許與這個問題相關，如果我們展望未來一年左右，您估計每英畝的適當價格是多少？

Sure, Brad. That is -- as we've said, we do have a high degree of conviction, the value of timberlands is going to increase over time based on the appreciation of all those things that you just laid out. What it is though is a lot of timing and mix there. We're going to see that move around based on the particular composition of the packages at any one quarter. There were a few more Western acres this quarter compared to some of the other quarters of late.

當然，布拉德。也就是說——正如我們所說的，我們確實高度確信，林地的價值將隨著時間的推移而增加，這取決於您剛才列出的所有這些東西的升值。但那裡有很多的時間和混合。我們將根據任何一個季度的套餐具體組成情況來觀察這項變更。與近期其他一些季度相比，本季西部地區的土地面積有所增加。

So that's going to drive up the price per acre there. So I wouldn't read too much into that other than, again, over time, we do expect increasing interest in the asset class.

所以這會推高那裡每英畝的價格。因此，我不會對此進行過多的解讀，但隨著時間的推移，我們確實預期人們對該資產類別的興趣會增加。

Okay, great. Appreciate that, guys.

好的，太好了。非常感謝，夥計們。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. Devin, do you see the one big beautiful bill impacting your Natural Climate Solutions business? And I guess I'm thinking specifically about sort of solar and wind projects. You have any projects at risk? Or does the bill impact your expectations for future growth for Natural Climate Solutions?

早安.德文，您是否認為這張美麗的大鈔會影響您的自然氣候解決方案業務？我想我正在特別考慮太陽能和風能項目。您有任何面臨風險的專案嗎？或者該法案是否會影響您對自然氣候解決方案未來成長的預期？

Yes. I mean, look, overall, I think the big beautiful bill was a net positive for Weyerhaeuser. And I'll let maybe Davie speak to a couple of the specific tax items here in a moment. But when you look at the impact to our Natural Climate Solutions business, there are going to be puts and takes. And as we've said before, the tone, the rhetoric around climate is obviously different in this administration than it was under the prior administration.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，我認為這張漂亮的大鈔票對 Weyerhaeuser 來說是一件好事。稍後我將讓戴維談談這裡的幾個具體稅收項目。但當你看到對我們的自然氣候解決方案業務的影響時，你會發現其中有得有失。正如我們之前所說，本屆政府在氣候議題上的調性和言論顯然與前政府不同。

But ultimately, this business, the foundation of it is built on an expectation that over time, companies, governments, et cetera, are going to have to do things to mitigate the effects of climate change. And so our underlying conviction around that hasn't changed at all. In the near term, we have a couple of things that went on with the bill. So first, 45Q, which is the tax incentive that supports carbon capture and sequestration, there was some discussion around that. That did make it through ultimately and was preserved.

但最終，這項業務的基礎是建立在這樣一種期望之上：隨著時間的推移，公司、政府等將不得不採取措施來減輕氣候變遷的影響。因此，我們對此的基本信念根本沒有改變。短期內，我們將對該法案進行一些改進。首先，45Q 是支持碳捕獲和封存的稅收激勵措施，對此有一些討論。它最終確實成功了並且被保存了下來。

The biggest impact probably at least in the near term, is around the incentives on renewables. And so as I'm sure you've seen a lot of discussion around that. They did provide a cutoff here that was pulled forward perhaps a little bit earlier than we had expected. And so it's really to get the incentives, you have to have projects started by July of 2026, and there's some discussion with an executive order about exactly how that's going to play out. But as I think about that in the context of our business, we have one operating solar site today.

至少在短期內，最大的影響可能在於對再生能源的激勵措施。我相信您已經看到了很多關於此問題的討論。他們確實在這裡提供了一個截止點，可能比我們預期的要早一點。因此，為了獲得激勵，你必須在 2026 年 7 月之前啟動項目，並且正在透過行政命令討論具體如何實施。但當我從我們的業務角度考慮這個問題時，我們今天有一個正在運作的太陽能電站。

We have two more that are under construction and a handful that I would expect to get under the wire by the time that deadline hits. And so in the near term, we've got a whole host of projects. I think to some degree, this might even expedite some of the projects that were maybe midterm that will go a little faster to try to meet that deadline. But look, ultimately, there's an issue country-wide from a power and energy perspective, the level of supply is not going to keep up with demand with data centers and AI, et cetera. And so there's really only one solution to that in the near term, and that's going to be renewable.

我們還有兩個項目正在建設中，還有幾個項目我預計在截止日期前完成。因此，短期內，我們將開展大量專案。我認為在某種程度上，這甚至可能會加快一些可能處於中期的專案的進度，以便盡快滿足最後期限。但從電力和能源的角度來看，最終全國範圍內都存在一個問題，即供應水準無法滿足資料中心、人工智慧等的需求。因此，短期內解決這個問題其實只有一個辦法，那就是再生能源。

So these things are going to get built out. We've aligned ourselves with sophisticated counterparties that largely saw this coming and have mitigation strategies in place to take care of this. But ultimately, these are going to get built. It may mean that the customer has to pay a higher electric bill. But ultimately, I don't see this meaningfully over the mid- to long term slowing down solar much.

所以這些東西都會建好。我們與成熟的交易對手結盟，他們基本上已經預見了這種情況，並制定了緩解策略來應對這種情況。但最終，這些都會被建成。這可能意味著客戶必須支付更高的電費。但最終，我認為從中長期來看，這並不會對太陽能發展產生重大影響。

And Anthony, I'd just add a couple of other positives for Weyerhaeuser on the tax legislation. The build did increase the portion of a REIT that can be held in a taxable REIT subsidiary from 20% to 25%. So that does give us additional capacity over time to grow our wood products businesses without jeopardizing REIT status. There are also some other adjustments to reinstating 100% bonus depreciation, other qualified production deductions that we expect to be beneficial to our manufacturing business as a whole over time, and they'll also apply to our Monticello facility.

安東尼，我只想補充幾點惠好公司在稅收立法方面的正面因素。此次建設確實將應稅 REIT 子公司持有的 REIT 份額從 20% 提高到了 25%。因此，隨著時間的推移，這確實為我們提供了額外的能力來發展我們的木製品業務，而不會危及房地產投資信託基金的地位。還有一些其他調整，例如恢復 100% 獎金折舊和其他合格的生產扣除，我們預計這些調整將隨著時間的推移對我們的整個製造業務有利，並且它們也將適用於我們的 Monticello 工廠。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just switching gears. Lumber does seem to have stabilized a little bit in recent weeks. And I'm wondering if you had any additional thoughts on what might be driving that or what you're seeing in terms of are dealers buying ahead of import duties or 232?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後就換檔了。近幾週木材價格似乎確實有所穩定。我想知道您是否還有其他想法，例如是什麼原因導致了這種情況，或者您看到經銷商在進口關稅或 232 之前購買的情況？

Or are you seeing curtailments in Canada or elsewhere? Or is demand picking up? I'm just curious if you had any additional color on kind of current market conditions, especially in number?

或者您看到加拿大或其他地方出現削減現象？或者需求正在回升？我只是好奇您是否對當前的市場狀況（尤其是數量）有任何補充說明？

Yes. I mean on the lumber side, there's a lot going on right now. I would say when you talk about the lumber market right now, you really have to talk about it in SPF terms and then Southern Yellow Pine terms because we've seen a diverging dynamic there. And a lot of this is driven, I think, by just in anticipation of the higher lumber duties and perhaps, to some degree, the outcome of the 232 investigation. When you look at Southern Yellow Pine, I think the reason that it stabilizes because it got down to a position where a lot of the industry is bouncing around the cash flow breakeven and perhaps some even below that.

是的。我的意思是，在木材方面，現在有很多事情要做。我想說，當你現在談論木材市場時，你真的必須用 SPF 術語來談論它，然後用南方黃松術語來談論它，因為我們已經看到那裡出現了不同的動態。我認為，這在很大程度上是因為預期木材關稅將提高，或許在某種程度上，是因為 232 調查的結果。當您觀察南方黃松時，我認為它之所以能夠穩定下來，是因為它已經處於一個位置，在這個位置上，很多行業的現金流都在盈虧平衡點附近波動，有些甚至可能低於這個水平。

And so I think what you're seeing is people are dialing back a little bit on production at these price levels. The flip side of that is on SPF. People know that the duties are going up from 14% to 34% just on the softwood lumber duty [case]. And so I think there's some expectation around where people are selling and the price, there's probably a little bit of inventory building. Although I would say across the system as a whole, it doesn't feel like the dealer networks have significant lumber inventories at present.

所以我認為你看到的是人們在這樣的價格水平上稍微減少了產量。其另一面是 SPF。人們知道，光是軟木材的關稅就從 14% 上升到 34%[案件]。因此我認為人們對銷售地點和價格有一定的預期，可能會有一點庫存累積。儘管我想說，從整個系統來看，目前經銷商網路似乎並沒有大量的木材庫存。

And so you see kind of those diverging dynamics at play. We're going to have the new duties coming out very soon. Those should be announced in the coming days in terms of when they're going to go in effect I think that will cause some volatility probably in pricing here in the near term until that stabilizes. But ultimately, I would expect from a pricing standpoint, you would expect that pricing should go up over the course of the fall, given all these different dynamics, even in a stable demand environment.

因此，您會看到這些不同的動態正在發揮作用。我們很快就會有新的職責出台。這些措施的生效時間應該會在未來幾天內公佈，我認為這可能會導致短期內價格波動，直到價格穩定下來。但最終，我預計從定價的角度來看，考慮到所有這些不同的動態，即使在穩定的需求環境下，價格也會在秋季上漲。

Okay. That, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Thank you. So maybe a couple of follow-ups. One would be on lumber and with the duties coming, et cetera. And at the same time, kind of looking at the second quarter, you guys, I think, were like $11 million in EBITDA. And if you look at where prices are today, you presumably would be fairly negative in EBITDA in lumber. And you've certainly indicated in the past in margins and things like that would suggest that you have a better system, lower cost system than most.

謝謝。因此也許還有一些後續行動。一個是木材，另一個是關稅，等等。同時，回顧第二季度，我認為你們的 EBITDA 約為 1100 萬美元。如果你看一下現在的價格，你大概會發現木材的 EBITDA 相當負數。而且您過去確實曾在利潤率等方面表明，您的系統比大多數系統更好、成本更低。

I mean are you surprised or hasn't been more response on the capacity side to date? Or do you think that's just -- it's going to come, but soon and just waiting for the duties? Any thoughts there would be helpful.

我的意思是，您是否感到驚訝，或者到目前為止在容量方面還沒有更多的回應？或者您認為這只是——它會到來，但很快，只是在等待職責？任何想法都會有幫助。

Yes. I mean -- so look, it's always hard to know what other companies are thinking about behind the scenes. So I won't necessarily speculate on that. What I would say is high level, it's hard to know exactly what's going to happen with pricing until we see these duties come into effect. And so to some degree, there's probably a logic to waiting until the duties come, seeing what that does to pricing if the general expectation is that you're going to see, at least from a US lumber perspective, see pricing go up here in the next several months, you probably wait to see how that shakes out before you start making meaningful operating decisions, at least in terms of long-term curtailments, et cetera. You might dial back production around the margin certainly probably not run extra overtime, those kinds of things. But I would guess that probably folks are thinking about -- let's see what happens with pricing after these duties come into play. We'll see what happens at the 232 investigation, see where prices settle out before we make any sort of big operating decisions. That would be my guess.

是的。我的意思是——所以看，總是很難知道其他公司在幕後想什麼。所以我不會對此進行推測。我想說的是，在這些關稅生效之前，我們很難確切知道定價會發生什麼變化。因此，從某種程度上來說，等到關稅出台再考慮對定價有何影響可能是合乎邏輯的。如果普遍預期至少從美國木材的角度來看，未來幾個月木材價格會上漲，那麼在開始做出有意義的營運決策（至少在長期減產等方面）之前，你可能需要先觀察一下情況如何。您可能會減少邊際產量，當然也可能不會加班，諸如此類的事情。但我猜人們可能正在考慮——讓我們看看這些關稅生效後定價會發生什麼變化。我們將觀察 232 調查的結果，看看價格在做出任何重大營運決策之前會如何穩定下來。這是我的猜測。

Understood. And just -- but is there any reason why that the window we get on sort of costs, looking at what you're doing, like the $11 million, again, if you put in where prices are, would seem to be fairly negative EBITDA, why that wouldn't be a good visual on just how distressed you would think most other manufacturers would be at this juncture?

明白了。而且只是——但是，從你的做法來看，我們得到的成本窗口，比如 1100 萬美元，再說一次，如果你把價格考慮進去，似乎會出現相當負的 EBITDA，為什麼這不能很好地直觀地反映出你認為大多數其他製造商在這個節骨眼上會有多麼苦惱？

Yes. I mean our view, and I think we've seen this over time is from a cost structure standpoint, we're in a pretty good place on the cost curve. So I still believe that to be the case. And so you can take that assumption and do what you will and apply that to other manufacturers. But that certainly, we view ourselves to be low-cost producers.

是的。我的意思是，從我們的觀點來看，而且我認為我們隨著時間的推移已經看到了這一點，從成本結構的角度來看，我們在成本曲線上處於相當好的位置。所以我仍然相信情況確實如此。因此，您可以採用該假設並按照自己的意願將其應用於其他製造商。但可以肯定的是，我們認為自己是低成本生產商。

And from an overall cost standpoint, efficiency standpoint, we feel like we're in pretty good shape relative to most of the industry.

從整體成本和效率的角度來看，我們感覺相對於大多數行業而言，我們的狀況相當良好。

Great. And then lastly, so just on the section 232, 1st, any intelligence on, how you think that might play out and then one, point of clarification, so I believe that, tariffs, for instance, on European lumber are not being applied while Section 232 is in process. Is that accurate so that when the section 232 investigation is concluded, do you then do at least your European would start having a tariff on it.

偉大的。最後，關於第 232 條，首先，您認為這可能會如何發展，然後需要澄清一點，我認為，在第 232 條實施期間，不會對歐洲木材徵收關稅。這是準確的嗎？那麼當第 232 條調查結束時，歐洲是否會至少開始對其徵收關稅？

Yes. I mean with respect to the European, you're absolutely right, no tariffs on European lumber coming in while the 232 investigation is ongoing. And so all things being equal, I think you're right. Now obviously, there's a lot of discussion going on between the US government and the European government, the EU on what a trade deal might look like.

是的。我的意思是，關於歐洲，您完全正確，在 232 調查進行期間，不會對進口的歐洲木材徵收關稅。所以，如果其他條件相同，我認為你是對的。顯然，美國政府和歐洲政府以及歐盟正在就貿易協議的具體內容進行大量討論。

And so I think there's always an open question how something in terms of a trade deal would affect that. But I think the default answer is just as you said. In terms of 232, we don't have anything to offer up today in terms of timing, scope, magnitude. I guess the only thing I would say with respect to that is this does seem to a large degree, to be prefaced on the administration's desire to see more manufacturing in the US. And so to the degree that you can read into that, what happens with 232, I would guess there's some chance that you see some additional tariffs.

因此我認為，貿易協定會對此產生什麼影響始終是一個懸而未決的問題。但我認為預設答案就像你說的一樣。就 232 而言，我們今天在時間、範圍和規模方面都沒有什麼可以提供的。我想就此我唯一想說的是，這在很大程度上似乎是政府希望看到更多製造業在美國發展的先決條件。因此，從您可以理解的程度來看，232 法案將帶來哪些影響，我猜您有可能會見到一些額外的關稅。

But again, we don't have anything specific to provide at this point.

但目前我們還沒有任何具體資訊可以提供。

Thanks, Devin. I appreciate it.

謝謝，德文。我很感激。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Kurt Yinger, DA Davidson.

庫爾特英格，DA 戴維森。

Great, thanks. Good morning everyone. I just wanted to circle back around on the divestitures, understanding -- or not getting to get into specifics of transactions that haven't been announced. But from an expectation standpoint, I guess, how much of the Roanoke acquisition would you expect to be kind of funded with divestitures? And is there a reasonable kind of time line for us to think about at least when you hope to maybe have those deals completed by?

太好了，謝謝。大家早安。我只是想重新討論一下資產剝離的問題，了解一下——或者不去談論尚未公佈的交易的具體細節。但從預期的角度來看，我想，您預計羅阿諾克收購案的資金有多少將透過資產剝離來籌集？是否有一個合理的時間表供我們考慮，至少您希望在什麼時候完成這些交易？

Yes, Kurt. So I'm not sure I can give you a whole bunch more specifics, as you know. But we've said we're going to fund that transaction through the divestiture of noncore timberlands. So I would expect that to be the vast majority, if not all of it. With respect to timing, again, that's something we're focused on.

是的，庫爾特。所以，如你所知，我不確定我能否向你提供更多細節。但我們表示，我們將透過剝離非核心林地來為該交易提供資金。因此我預計這將是絕大多數，如果不是全部的話。關於時間，我們再次強調，這是我們關注的重點。

We'll report back as appropriate. I can offer up that as you look at the requirements under the IRS code Section 1031, those exchanges have to be completed within a 180-day time line. So we're certainly cognizant of that and looking forward to moving forward on these transactions.

我們將視情況報告。我可以說，根據美國國稅局法典第 1031 條的要求，這些交換必須在 180 天的時間內完成。因此，我們當然意識到了這一點，並期待著推進這些交易。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just kind of looking at the balance sheet if we don't factor in the divestitures, it seems like leverage could maybe pick up into the mid-4s by year-end. I guess in that context, how should we think about your appetite for share repurchases at least here in the near term?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後，如果我們不考慮資產剝離，只看資產負債表，似乎槓桿率可能會在年底前升至 4% 左右。我想，在這種背景下，我們應該如何看待您至少在短期內對股票回購的興趣？

And how are you thinking about overall flexibility, just given what we know is coming in terms of Monticello spending next year as well?

鑑於我們知道明年蒙蒂塞洛的支出狀況，您如何看待整體靈活性？

Yes. Look, Kurt, I mean, we feel really good about the strength of our balance sheet. We've been working hard for the last several years, a number of years to get our operating posture and profile in the right position to get our balance sheet in the right place. So as we navigate whatever market conditions may arise, we feel really good about how we're positioned, a lot of flexibility. Feel really good as we think about our balance sheet and opportunities there.

是的。你看，庫爾特，我的意思是，我們對我們的資產負債表的實力感到非常滿意。過去幾年來，我們一直在努力使我們的經營態勢和狀況處於正確的位置，使我們的資產負債表處於正確的位置。因此，無論出現什麼市場狀況，我們都會對自己的定位感到非常滿意，並且具有很大的靈活性。當我們考慮我們的資產負債表和那裡的機會時，感覺真的很好。

I think more broadly speaking, on share repurchase, we're pleased to have been very active in that space over the course of the second quarter, completing $100 million in the quarter, our highest level that we've done in several years. So I think that's an indication that we view it as a very attractive lever. For us, I think we'll continue to weigh the opportunities available in that space moving forward and not just in share repurchase but other opportunities that may arise. And so part of that evaluation process and what we're weighing as we're focusing on that is ensuring we maintain a strong balance sheet, have the right capacity for future growth opportunities. So as always, we're going to look at all of that and focus on allocating cash in the way that creates the most long-term value for shareholders.

我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，在股票回購方面，我們很高興在第二季度非常活躍地開展這一領域，本季度完成了 1 億美元的回購，這是我們幾年來的最高水平。所以我認為這表明我們認為它是一個非常有吸引力的槓桿。對我們來說，我認為我們將繼續權衡該領域未來的機會，不僅是股票回購，還包括可能出現的其他機會。因此，評估過程的一部分以及我們所關注的重點是確保我們保持強勁的資產負債表，並具備應對未來成長機會的適當能力。因此，與往常一樣，我們將考慮所有這些因素，並專注於以能為股東創造最大長期價值的方式分配現金。

Okay, got it, thank you.

好的，知道了，謝謝。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you. Good morning. Thank thanks for taking my question. Perhaps to start with Devin, are you hearing anything from your customers around kind of substitution of SPF for SYP when these duties go into place? Is there a price differential where this sort of really starts to pick up?

謝謝。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。也許首先從 Devin 開始，當這些關稅生效後，您是否聽過客戶關於用 SPF 取代 SYP 的消息？是否存在價格差異，這種情況是否真的開始好轉？

Yes. I mean, as you can imagine, we're certainly focused on this right now given the footprint that we have across the South. I do think at current pricing, which we've seen we've seen a pretty decent gap developed between SPF and Southern Yellow Pine. At this kind of pricing level, frankly, I think even at a smaller gap, there is an opportunity for Southern Yellow Pine to pick up market share from. Particularly, if you think about an environment where builders are really focused on margin and affordability for buyers.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所想像的，考慮到我們在南方各地的影響力，我們現在肯定專注於此。我確實認為，按照目前的定價，SPF 和南方黃松之間存在相當大的差距。坦白說，在這種定價水平下，我認為即使差距較小，南方黃松也有機會搶佔市場份額。特別是，如果你考慮到建築商真正關注的是買家的利潤和承受能力的環境。

We also know that Southern Yellow Pine lumber availability is growing, where SPF is shrinking. So -- and I do think this is an opportune moment for builders to be taking a closer look at this, nice cost-saving opportunity. As you know, there's some historical views in certain markets around using Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF, I do think, to some degree, some of that is a little outdated around warp, et cetera, with the way that we dry lumber these days, that's much less of an issue than it used to be. Weyerhaeuser actually has a lot of work stable products that I think can fit squarely. So that's an area that we're really focused on.

我們也知道，南方黃松木材的供應量正在成長，而 SPF 在減少。所以——我確實認為這是一個讓建築商仔細研究這節省成本的好機會的絕佳時機。如你所知，在某些市場上，人們對使用南方黃松與 SPF 存在一些歷史觀點，我確實認為，在某種程度上，這些觀點在翹曲等方面有些過時，但隨著我們如今乾燥木材的方式，這個問題已經比以前少了很多。實際上，我認為 Weyerhaeuser 有許多工作穩定的產品可以滿足需求。所以這是我們真正關注的領域。

This is an opportunity, I think, for Southern Yellow Pine producers to go out and take market share just given this price dynamic, which I think will be in place to some degree for a while here.

我認為，對於南方黃鬆生產商來說，這是一個走出去佔領市場份額的機會，因為這種價格動態在一定程度上會持續一段時間。

Yes, that's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, your operating rate in Q2 for lumber OSB and EWP, please?

是的，這很有幫助。然後作為後續問題，請問您第二季 OSB 和 EWP 木材的運作率是多少？

Yes. In Q2, we were kind of in the high 80s on lumber, mid-90s on OSB and high 70s in EWP.

是的。在第二季度，木材價格處於 80 多美元，定向刨花板價格處於 90 多美元，而 EWP 價格處於 70 多美元。

Got it. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

知道了。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. One big beautiful bill and the increase in the size of the taxable REIT subsidiary that could be held in REITs, just recognizing you've expressed a bullish view on similar valuations here. Is it appropriate or attractive to allocate additional capital to wood products? What makes sense for your business? Thanks.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。一張漂亮的大鈔，以及可在房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 中持有的應稅 REIT 子公司規模的增加，只是承認您在這裡對類似的估值表達了看漲觀點。將額外資本投入木製品是否合適或具吸引力？什麼對您的業務有意義？謝謝。

Yes. You bet, Matt. I mean, absolutely, we would have interest in Wood Products M&A. As you referenced, we've been focused on the timberland side with that $1 billion target. We've always been investing in our Wood Products business, though, through our CapEx program.

是的。當然，馬特。我的意思是，我們絕對對木製品併購感興趣。正如您所提到的，我們一直專注於林業方面，目標是 10 億美元。不過，我們一直透過資本支出計畫投資於我們的木製品業務。

Really, that's been a focus on working to reduce cost and grow volume organically over time. We announced the new Timberstrand facility last fall in Monticello, Arkansas, making great progress on that, as we mentioned. We really like the opportunity to grow our EWP business, that creates value across our whole portfolio. Yes, we certainly remain open to acquisitions on the wood products space, if we found the right asset at the right price that aligns well with our portfolio, creates clear value for shareholders. We've looked at a handful of deals over the past few years, and we'll continue to look at opportunities as they come available.

實際上，我們的重點是努力降低成本並隨著時間的推移而有機地增加產量。正如我們所提到的，我們去年秋天宣佈在阿肯色州蒙蒂塞洛建立新的 Timberstrand 工廠，並取得了巨大進展。我們非常喜歡發展 EWP 業務的機會，這將為我們的整個產品組合創造價值。是的，如果我們找到合適的資產，而且價格合適，與我們的投資組合相匹配，為股東創造明顯的價值，我們當然對木製品領域的收購持開放態度。在過去幾年中，我們已經考察過一些交易，並且我們會繼續尋找機會。

But of course, it's always got to meet our strategic and financial criteria.

但當然，它必須始終滿足我們的策略和財務標準。

Great. That's helpful. Thank you. And then last one for me. Just around forest carbon credits, I think you mentioned six additional projects under development. Could you just clarify, are those all track into 2026 in terms of registration and sales?

偉大的。這很有幫助。謝謝。這是我的最後一個。關於森林碳信用額，我記得您提到了另外六個正在開發的項目。您能否澄清一下，就註冊和銷售而言，這些都是到 2026 年的軌跡嗎？

And just maybe more broadly, what is the pipeline for '26 look like compared to how we're thinking about '25 here?

或許更廣泛地說，與我們對 25 年的設想相比，26 年的管道是什麼樣的？

Yes. So in addition to the three that we have approved, we have six more that are currently under development. Some of those we do expect to be issued in 2025. And with the remainder kind of early 2026, and then we're building out additional projects to put into the pipeline after that. So we're just going to continue to grow this pipeline over time.

是的。因此，除了我們已經批准的三個項目之外，我們還有六個項目正在開發中。我們確實預計其中一些將於 2025 年發布。剩餘時間大約在 2026 年初，然後我們將建立更多項目，並將其納入計劃。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續擴大這一管道。

We have a long list of potential properties that I think would be good carbon opportunities. And so we would expect this pipeline to just continue to grow year after year.

我們有許多潛在的資產，我認為這些資產可以成為良好的碳機會。因此，我們預期這條管道將逐年成長。

Thanks very much. I'll be right back.

非常感謝。我馬上回來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hong Zhang, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的張紅。

Hey, good morning everybody. Yes. I guess on Japan, you talked about gaining some market share in the country this quarter. Do you think that's sustainable? Or is there an expectation for that to kind of reverse later in the year?

嘿，大家早安。是的。我想關於日本，您談到了本季在該國獲得一些市場份額。您認為這是可持續的嗎？或者是否預計今年稍後這種情況會發生逆轉？

No. I mean my expectation is that's going to continue to be the case for really a few reasons. When you look at what's going on in Europe generally, you can see this in a lot of the producing regions. Log costs have gone up pretty dramatically. And so that's changing the cost structure or a lot of the products that have historically been sent into Japan.

不。我的意思是，我預計這種情況將會繼續下去，原因有很多。當你觀察歐洲的整體情況時，你會發現很多產區都存在這種情況。木材成本大幅上漲。這改變了許多歷史上出口到日本的產品的成本結構。

We've always had -- when I talk about we, I mean us and our primary customers in Japan, we've had a cost advantage in that market. Relative to the Europeans, I think that will just continue to grow. That's also going to be supported with our Japanese -- big Japanese customer that's rebuilding a mill that was burned down a few years ago, that's progressing well. The first line is up and running.

我們一直——當我談論我們時，我指的是我們和我們在日本的主要客戶，我們在該市場擁有成本優勢。相對於歐洲人，我認為這個數字還會持續成長。這也將得到我們日本大客戶的支持，該客戶正在重建幾年前被燒毀的工廠，目前進展順利。第一條生產線已投入運作。

When that is fully operational in '27, they're going to have a world-class low-cost mill that is just going to further support their cost competitiveness. And so the overall population is probably not going up in Japan. And so overall, you would expect housing to decline over time. But that being said, we do think that just by virtue of gaining market share, taking a bigger piece of the pie together with our customers, that business should be strong and healthy for the foreseeable future.

當該工廠於 27 年全面投入運作時，他們將擁有世界一流的低成本工廠，這將進一步增強他們的成本競爭力。因此日本的總人口可能不會增加。因此總體而言，你可以預期房屋價格會隨著時間的推移而下降。但話雖如此，我們確實認為，只要獲得市場份額，與我們的客戶一起分得更大的一杯羹，我們的業務在可預見的未來就應該保持強勁和健康。

Got it. And I guess on China, is it safe to just say the expectation is that imports won't resume until the entire trade war results itself?

知道了。我想就中國而言，是否可以安全地說，預計在整個貿易戰結束之前，進口不會恢復？

I mean I think that's probably a reasonable assumption. I think obviously, there's a lot going on there in terms of trade with China. There are discussions ongoing. We've made our position very clear to the administration, commerce, USTR, et cetera. that we would like to open that market back up.

我的意思是我認為這可能是個合理的假設。我認為，顯然，在與中國的貿易方面有很多進展。討論仍在進行中。我們已經向政府、商務部、美國貿易代表等明確表達了我們的立場，即我們希望重新開放該市場。

They understand that, but certainly, there are bigger issues at play. So I think that's probably a reasonable expectation. We're, of course, going to continue to push from our end to try to open that market back up. But I would say silver lining there is in the interim. That has allowed us, particularly out of the US South to pivot our focus to India. And I think that's going to be a nice growth opportunity as we expand our export business out of the South. So we'll see it come back eventually, I'm sure the timing is still TBD.

他們明白這一點，但肯定還有更大的問題在起作用。所以我認為這可能是個合理的期望。當然，我們將繼續努力，嘗試重新開放該市場。但我想說，在這段期間也存在一線希望。這使得我們，特別是美國南部的企業，能夠將重點轉向印度。我認為，隨著我們將出口業務拓展到南方以外，這將是一個很好的成長機會。所以我們最終會看到它回歸，我確信時間仍有待確定。

Yes, thanks. Have a great weekend.

是的，謝謝。祝你周末愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場 (CIBC Capital Markets) 的 Hamir Patel。

Hi, good morning. Devin, there's been some reports in Canada that the federal and provincial governments are more open to exploring a quota as a potential solution to the softwood lumber dispute. Do you see any kind of movement on the US side there? And any prospects that may be a path forward?

嗨，早安。德文，加拿大有報道稱，聯邦政府和省政府更願意探索配額作為解決軟木材爭端的潛在方案。您是否看到美國方面有任何動靜？有哪些前景可以成為前進的道路？

Yes. I mean, so look, at a high level, there are a lot of discussions going on between the US and Canadian government right now. I'm sure that at least from the Canadian side, there's been some discussion from the governmental negotiators around lumber and wood. I'm not sure I have any particular insight on to what extent those conversations are progressing. I would just say, over time, obviously, this will get resolved.

是的。我的意思是，從高層來看，美國和加拿大政府之間目前正在進行大量討論。我確信至少從加拿大方面來看，政府談判人員已經就木材和木材問題進行了一些討論。我不確定我是否對這些對話的進展程度有任何特別的見解。我只想說，隨著時間的推移，這個問題顯然會得到解決。

Is that going to happen in the very near term? I think that's very hard to say. Whether that includes a quota or some other mechanism? Obviously, the devil is in the details, and there's a lot that goes into what would be acceptable from the US. side.

這會在短期內發生嗎？我認為這很難說。這是否包括配額或其他機制？顯然，魔鬼藏在細節中，而從美國方面來說，有很多因素決定什麼是可以接受的。

There are lots of parties, as you know, that are involved in these discussions. And so I think it's hard to say how quickly this will all get resolved, lots of conversation. Ultimately, I'm sure there will be a resolution at some point in the future. But I'm not sure I think that's necessarily going to happen in the very near term.

如您所知，有很多方參與了這些討論。所以我認為很難說這一切會多快解決，還需要很多討論。最終，我相信未來某個時候一定會有一個解決方案。但我不確定這是否一定會在短期內發生。

Yes, fair enough, thanks. That's all I had. I'll I'll turn it over.

是的，夠公平，謝謝。這就是我所擁有的一切。我會把它翻過來。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Yes, thank you, Devin, Davy, Andy. Thank you for taking my questions. Just the first one I had in terms of the EWP. Devin, what's your expectation for 3Q operating rate, given your outlook [line] for lower sales volume?

是的，謝謝你們，德文、戴維、安迪。感謝您回答我的問題。就 EWP 而言，這只是我所擁有的第一個。德文，考慮到銷售量下降的預期，您對第三季的開工率有何預期？

Yes. I mean, so we are going to see lower operating rates in Q3 relative to Q2, and that's really just a reflection on the market dynamic. We can dial that up if we see the demand environment improve over the quarter. But just given where things are today, we've dialed that back just a little bit around the margins. We do have, I think, a high-quality product.

是的。我的意思是，我們將看到第三季的營運率相對於第二季有所下降，這實際上只是對市場動態的反映。如果我們看到本季需求環境有所改善，我們就可以提高這一水準。但考慮到目前的情況，我們已將利潤率稍微下調了一些。我認為我們的產品確實品質很高。

And so we've got good customer demand from our long-term customers, and we're always looking to take market share and those kinds of things. But at today's present building level, I think it's prudent for us to dial that back just a little bit until we start to see some pickup in construction activity.

因此，我們的長期客戶有良好的客戶需求，我們也一直在尋求佔領市場份額等等。但就目前建築水平而言，我認為我們應該謹慎地稍微降低一點建造速度，直到我們開始看到建築活動有所回升。

Got it. Makes sense. And then just one quick question on your 3Q wood product outlook overall. Based on your guidance calling for 3Q would probably be comparable to 2Q. And given where lumber and OSB prices stand today versus the 2Q average, is it fair to say that EBITDA would possibly be down $50 million, $60 million sequentially?

知道了。有道理。然後我只想問一個簡單的問題，關於您對第三季木製品整體前景的看法。根據您的指導，預計第三季的業績可能與第二季的業績相當。考慮到目前木材和定向刨花板的價格與第二季平均價格相比，可以說 EBITDA 可能比上一季下降 5,000 萬美元、6,000 萬美元嗎？

Yes. I mean, so we obviously provide the spread on -- for every $10, it's $50 million annually in lumber and $32 million on OSB. So you can do the math as we progress across the quarter. We find it very difficult to predict what's going to happen with commodity prices, which is how -- why we do our outlook that way, providing guidance on the things that we have a little bit more control and visibility into. So we'll see what happens with pricing over the course of the quarter.

是的。我的意思是，我們顯然提供了價差——每 10 美元，每年的木材價格為 5000 萬美元，定向刨花板價格為 3200 萬美元。因此，隨著我們整個季度的進展，您可以進行計算。我們發現很難預測大宗商品價格的走勢，這就是我們以這種方式進行展望的原因，為我們能夠更好地控制和了解的事情提供指導。因此，我們將觀察本季的定價情況。

As I said, at least from a lumber standpoint, there's going to be a lot of volatility here in the near term as these duties come into place. Over time, you wouldn't expect the industry to continue to operate below cash flow breakeven. And if you look back over history, you can see lots of examples of what happens in that instance. And so our expectation is, obviously, ultimately you should see some upward movement on lumber pricing. OSB, similar story.

正如我所說，至少從木材的角度來看，隨著這些關稅的實施，短期內將會出現很大的波動。隨著時間的推移，你不會期望該行業繼續在現金流盈虧平衡點以下運作。如果你回顧歷史，你會看到很多在那個時刻發生的事情的例子。因此，我們的預期顯然是，最終您應該會看到木材價格上漲。OSB，類似的故事。

Sometimes that takes a little bit longer to play out. But ultimately, the industry, you would assume is going to operate at a level that's profitable. And so we'll see how long that takes. But just in terms of specific lumber and OSB -- you can sort of do that math based on the sensitivities that we provide on overall EBITDA. All right.

有時這需要更長的時間才能實現。但最終，你會認為該行業將以盈利水平運營。我們將看看這需要多長時間。但僅就特定木材和定向刨花板而言 - 您可以根據我們提供的整體 EBITDA 敏感度來進行計算。好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right, thank you. I think that was our final question.

好的，謝謝。我想這是我們的最後一個問題。

Yes, it was. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.

是的。目前沒有其他問題。我想把發言權交還給 Devin Stockfish 來做最後評論。

All right. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a great day.

好的。好吧，感謝大家今天早上加入我們，也感謝你們對 Weyerhaeuser 的持續關注。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。我們感謝您的參與。