威爾豪瑟 (WY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Weyerhaeuser 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，投資者關係副總裁安迪泰勒（Andy Taylor）。謝謝您，泰勒先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our news release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our earnings release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website.

謝謝你，羅布。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 Weyerhaeuser 2024 年第四季的收益。本次電話會議將在www.weyerhaeuser.com 上進行網路直播。我們的新聞稿和簡報資料也可以在我們的網站上找到。請查看我們的收益報告和簡報幻燈片中有關前瞻性陳述相關風險的警告聲明，因為前瞻性陳述將在本次電話會議中發表。我們將討論非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 財務指標，您可以在我們網站的收益資料中找到公認會計準則 (GAAP) 的對帳表。

On the call this morning, are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer.

參加今天早上電話會議的有執行長 Devin Stockfish；以及財務長戴維沃爾德（Davie Wold）。

I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

現在我將電話轉給 Devin Stockfish。

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported full year GAAP earnings of $396 million or $0.54 per diluted share on net sales of $7.1 billion. Excluding special items, full year 2024 earnings totaled $384 million or $0.53 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.3 billion for the year.

謝謝，安迪。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。昨日，韋爾好澤公佈全年 GAAP 收益為 3.96 億美元，即每股收益 0.54 美元，淨銷售額為 71 億美元。不包括特殊項目，2024 年全年收益總計 3.84 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.53 美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 總計 13 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we reported GAAP earnings of $81 million or $0.11 per diluted share on net sales of $1.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $294 million, a 25% increase over the third quarter.

第四季度，我們報告的 GAAP 收益為 8,100 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.11 美元，淨銷售額為 17 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 2.94 億美元，較第三季成長 25%。

I'll start this morning by expressing my sincere gratitude to our Weyerhaeuser employees for their solid execution and dedication in 2024 in what was a very challenging market backdrop. Through their collective efforts, we continue to serve our customers, delivered industry-leading operating performance and drove meaningful improvements across each of our value levers in the investment thesis. Notably, we grew our timberlands through acquisitions in Alabama, announced plans to expand our engineered wood products portfolio, advanced our Natural Climate Solutions business and captured additional operational excellence improvements.

今天上午，我首先要向魏爾豪澤的員工表示誠摯的感謝，感謝他們在 2024 年極具挑戰性的市場背景下的堅實執行和奉獻精神。透過他們的共同努力，我們繼續服務我們的客戶，提供業界領先的營運業績，並在投資理論中的每個價值槓桿上推動有意義的改進。值得注意的是，我們透過在阿拉巴馬州的收購擴大了我們的林地面積，宣布了擴大我們的工程木產品組合的計劃，推進了我們的自然氣候解決方案業務，並獲得了額外的卓越運營改進。

We also increased our base dividend by more than 5% and returned $735 million of cash to shareholders based on our 2024 results. including $153 million of share repurchase. I'm incredibly proud of these accomplishments, all of which support our growth strategy and drive long-term value for our shareholders. Before moving into the business segment results, I'd like to comment briefly on an exciting growth initiative within our EWP business, which is summarized on page 24 of our earnings slides.

我們還根據 2024 年的業績將基本股利提高了 5% 以上，並向股東返還了 7.35 億美元現金。其中包括1.53億美元的股票回購。我對這些成就感到無比自豪，它們都支持我們的成長策略並為我們的股東帶來長期價值。在介紹業務部門業績之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們的 EWP 業務中一項令人興奮的增長計劃，該計劃已在我們的收益幻燈片第 24 頁進行了總結。

As we announced in the fourth quarter, we plan to invest approximately $500 million to build a state-of-the-art Timberstrand facility in Arkansas. Timberstrand is a proprietary and versatile engineered wood product with applications in residential, industrial and mass timber end markets. The new facility will address an underserved and growing market for the product in the US South and showcases Weyerhaeuser's innovation in Wood Products.

正如我們在第四季度宣布的那樣，我們計劃投資約 5 億美元在阿肯色州建造一個最先進的 Timberstrand 工廠。Timberstrand 是一種專有的多功能工程木材產品，可用於住宅、工業和大規模木材終端市場。新工廠將滿​​足美國南部尚未充分服務且不斷增長的產品市場的需求，並展示韋爾豪澤在木製品領域的創新。

Notably, we combined institutional expertise from our existing Timberstrand facility in Canada with extensive research and development to enable manufacturing of the product with Southern Yellow Pine as the primary feedstock. Given its location in Arkansas, the new facility will deliver seamless integration with our existing Timberlands and distribution network. In fact, approximately 80% of the raw material sourcing for the facility will come from Weyerhaeuser of the timberlands, resulting in an excellent new outlet for our southern fiber logs in the region.

值得注意的是，我們將位於加拿大的現有 Timberstrand 工廠的機構專業知識與廣泛的研究和開發相結合，從而能夠以南方黃松為主要原料來生產該產品。由於位於阿肯色州，新工廠將與我們現有的 Timberlands 和分銷網絡實現無縫整合。事實上，該工廠約 80% 的原材料將來自林業巨頭韋爾豪澤，為我們在該地區南部的纖維原木找到一個絕佳的新銷售管道。

Construction of the facility will begin this year with start-up expected in 2027. Once fully operational, the facility will add 10 million cubic feet of production, doubling Weyerhaeuser's Timberstrand offering and increasing total company EWP capacity by approximately 24%. In addition, the facility is expected to generate over $100 million of annual adjusted EBITDA, with additional upside from portfolio integration benefits. We're excited to bring this new facility online and look forward to expanding our footprint and workforce in Arkansas.

該設施將於今年開始建設，預計於 2027 年投入使用。一旦全面投入運營，該工廠將增加 1000 萬立方英尺的產量，使 Weyerhaeuser 的 Timberstrand 產量翻一番，並使該公司 EWP 總產能提高約 24%。此外，該工廠預計每年將產生超過 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，並且還將帶來投資組合整合效益帶來的額外上升空間。我們很高興能夠讓這個新設施上線，並期待擴大我們在阿肯色州的影響力和員工隊伍。

With that, I'll now turn to our fourth-quarter business results, starting with Timberlands on pages 7 through 10. Timberlands contributed $62 million to fourth-quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $126 million, a slight increase compared to the third quarter. In the West, adjusted EBITDA was comparable to the third quarter.

現在，我將開始介紹我們第四季的業務業績，首先介紹第 7 頁至第 10 頁的 Timberlands。Timberlands 為第四季度貢獻了 6,200 萬美元的收益。調整後EBITDA為1.26億美元，較第三季略有成長。在西方，調整後的 EBITDA 與第三季相當。

Turning to the Western domestic market. Log demand improved in the fourth quarter as mills responded to strengthening lumber prices and a seasonal reduction in log supply across the system. As a result, pricing for grade logs increased as the quarter progressed and moved substantially higher in December. That said, our average domestic sales realizations were comparable to the third quarter due to mix.

轉向西方國內市場。由於工廠對木材價格上漲和整個系統原木供應季節性減少做出反應，原木需求在第四季度有所改善。因此，隨著季度的進展，原木等級價格上漲，並在 12 月大幅上漲。也就是說，由於產品組合原因，我們的平均國內銷售實現額與第三季相當。

Our sales volumes to domestic customers increased moderately as we reduced shipments to our customers increase moderately as we reduce shipments to customers in China. Per unit log and haul costs were comparable to the third quarter and forestry and road costs were seasonally lower. Our fee harvest volumes were slightly lower, largely due to fewer working days in the fourth quarter.

由於我們減少了對中國客戶的出貨量，我們對國內客戶的銷售量適度增加。每單位原木和運輸成本與第三季相當，且林業和道路成本季節性較低。我們的費用收穫量略有下降，主要是由於第四季度的工作日減少。

Moving to our Western export business. In Japan, log markets remained soft in the fourth quarter due to ongoing consumption headwinds and elevated inventories of finished products for our customers. As a result, our sales volumes and average realizations for export logs to Japan were slightly lower compared to the third quarter. However, inventories and shipments of European lumber imports decreased as the quarter progressed, allowing our customers to pick up market share. As a result, we expect stronger demand for our Japanese export logs in the first quarter.

轉向我們的西方出口業務。在日本，由於持續的消費逆風和客戶成品庫存增加，原木市場在第四季依然疲軟。因此，我們對日本出口原木的銷售量和平均實現額與第三季相比略有下降。然而，隨著本季的進展，歐洲木材進口的庫存和出貨量有所減少，使我們的客戶獲得了市場份額。因此，我們預計第一季對日本出口原木的需求將會更強勁。

In China, despite ongoing consumption headwinds, log markets remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter and demand from our strategic customers was steady. That said, our sales volumes into China were significantly lower as we intentionally flex logs to our domestic customers. Our average sales realizations were comparable to the third quarter.

在中國，儘管消費持續面臨阻力，第四季原木市場仍相對穩定，我們策略客戶的需求保持穩定。儘管如此，由於我們有意向國內客戶提供原木，因此我們在中國的銷售量明顯較低。我們的平均銷售實現額與第三季相當。

Turning to the South. Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands increased by $2 million compared to the third quarter. Southern sawlog markets remained muted in the fourth quarter as log supply was ample and mills continued to align capacity with lower takeaway of finished goods. This was partially driven by the seasonal reduction in lumber demand around the holidays. In contrast, Southern fiber markets were generally stable.

轉向南方。與第三季相比，Southern Timberlands 的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 200 萬美元。由於原木供應充足，且工廠持續調整產能以適應成品出口量的減少，因此第四季南方鋸木市場仍保持低迷。部分原因是假期期間木材需求的季節性減少。相比之下，南方纖維市場整體穩定。

On balance, takeaway for our logs remained steady given our delivered programs across the region, and our average sales realizations increased slightly compared to the third quarter, largely driven by a higher mix of grade logs.

總體而言，考慮到我們在整個地區交付的項目，我們的原木外賣量保持穩定，而且與第三季度相比，我們的平均銷售實現量略有增加，這主要是由於原木等級組合較高。

Our fee harvest volumes and forestry and road costs increased in the fourth quarter as operating activities in certain regions shifted from the prior quarter due to wet weather conditions. Per unit log and haul costs were comparable to the third quarter. In the North, adjusted EBITDA increased slightly compared to the third quarter, largely driven by higher fee harvest and sales volumes given favorable weather conditions.

由於潮濕的天氣條件導致某些地區的經營活動與上一季相比有所轉變，因此第四季度我們的費用採伐量以及林業和道路成本有所增加。每單位原木和運輸成本與第三季相當。在北方，調整後的 EBITDA 與第三季相比略有增加，這主要得益於有利的天氣條件導致的費用收入和銷售量增加。

Turning now to real estate, energy and natural resources on pages 11 and 12. In the fourth quarter, Real Estate and ENR contributed $46 million to earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $76 million, and largely in line with third quarter results. For the full year, the segment generated $349 million of adjusted EBITDA, slightly higher than our revised full year guidance and $29 million higher than our initial outlook.

現在轉到第 11 和 12 頁的房地產、能源和自然資源。第四季度，房地產和 ENR 貢獻了 4,600 萬美元的收益。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,600 萬美元，與第三季業績基本一致。就全年而言，該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.49 億美元，略高於我們修訂後的全年預期，比我們最初的預測高出 2900 萬美元。

These results were largely driven by solid demand and pricing for HBU properties in our real estate business, resulting in high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value. They also reflect a significant year-over-year increase in contributions from our Natural Climate Solutions business.

這些結果很大程度上是由我們房地產業務中對 HBU 房產的強勁需求和定價所推動的，從而產生了高價值交易，其溢價遠高於木材價值。這也反映了我們的自然氣候解決方案業務貢獻的同比大幅增長。

As shown on page 23, full-year adjusted EBITDA for NCS was $84 million, a 79% increase compared to 2023, primarily driven by strong contributions from our conservation, mitigation banking and renewables business, where we continue to see solid demand. In Forest Carbon, we achieved notable milestones in 2024, including the approval and credit issuance from our second project located in the US South and a new issuance of credits from our project in Maine.

如第23 頁所示，NCS 全年調整後EBITDA 為8,400 萬美元，較2023 年成長79%，這主要得益於我們的保護、緩解銀行和再生能源業務的強勁貢獻，我們繼續看到這些業務的強勁需求。在森林碳排放方面，我們在 2024 年取得了顯著的里程碑，包括位於美國南部的第二個項目的批准和信用發放，以及位於緬因州的項目的新信用發放。

In the fourth quarter, we sold approximately 50,000 credits in the voluntary market. We continue to see strong demand and premium pricing for our credits given our commitment to developing projects that meet high standards for quality and integrity. Looking forward, our forest carbon pipeline is developing rapidly, and we currently have seven additional projects in progress.

第四季度，我們在自願市場上銷售了約 50,000 個信用額度。由於我們致力於開發符合高品質和誠信標準的項目，我們繼續看到對我們的信貸的強勁需求和溢價定價。展望未來，我們的森林碳管道正在快速發展，目前我們還有七個正在進行的項目。

For 2025, we expect a significant increase in credit generation and sales relative to the last couple of years. In renewables, demand continues to increase for large-scale solar development and we're well positioned to capitalize on opportunities as markets continue to expand. We've signed approximately 70 agreements for potential solar projects across our portfolio and our first solar site commenced operations in the fourth quarter, and we have two additional sites currently under construction. With respect to wind, operations commenced on our seventh site in December and we expect an additional project to come online in the coming months.

到 2025 年，我們預計信貸產生和銷售將比過去幾年大幅增加。在再生能源領域，大規模太陽能開發的需求持續增加，隨著市場不斷擴大，我們已準備好抓住機會。我們已簽署了約 70 份有關我們投資組合中潛在太陽能項目的協議，我們的第一個太陽能項目已於第四季度開始運營，目前還有兩個項目正在建設中。關於風能，我們的第七個風力發電場於 12 月開始運營，我們預計未來幾個月還會有另一個項目上線。

Turning briefly to our carbon capture and sequestration business. We continue to work closely with the developers on our three announced agreements and are in discussions with new counterparties for additional projects. While the time line for CCS and the permitting queue in particular has extended beyond our initial expectations, we remain confident that projects will ultimately be developed and continue to expect CCS to be a meaningful contributor to our NCS growth strategy over time.

簡單介紹一下我們的碳捕獲和封存業務。我們將繼續就已宣布的三項協議與開發商密切合作，並正在與新的交易對手討論更多項目。雖然 CCS 的時間表以及許可隊列已經超出了我們最初的預期，但我們仍然相信專案最終會得到開發，並繼續期待 CCS 能隨著時間的推移成為我們 NCS 成長策略的重要貢獻者。

So in summary, we continue to make excellent progress in our Natural Climate Solutions business, and we remain on track to reach $100 million of adjusted EBITDA by the end of this year. As we've said all along, early growth has largely been supported by our existing businesses. That said, we expect 2025 NCS results to include a meaningful increase in contributions from Forest Carbon credits. As we look beyond 2025, we see additional upside across the carbon and renewables businesses as those markets continue to develop.

總而言之，我們的自然氣候解決方案業務繼續取得良好進展，並且我們預計在今年年底前實現 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。正如我們一直所說，早期成長很大程度上受到了我們現有業務的支持。儘管如此，我們預計2025年NCS的結果將包括森林碳排放額度貢獻的顯著增加。展望2025年後，隨著這些市場的持續發展，我們看到碳和再生能源業務將具有額外的上升空間。

We built a world-class team with deep technical expertise and strong commercial focus, and we continue to believe there is no company in this space with the capabilities or asset base to deliver on this value creation opportunity at scale like Weyerhaeuser.

我們建立了一支具有深厚技術專長和強大商業關注度的世界級團隊，並且我們始終相信，在這個領域沒有任何一家公司擁有像韋爾好用戶這樣大規模實現這一價值創造機會的能力或資產基礎。

Now moving to wood products on pages 13 through 15. Wood Products contributed $106 million to fourth quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $161 million, a 77% increase compared to the third quarter, largely driven by an increase in lumber and OSB pricing.

現在轉到第 13 至 15 頁的木製品。木製品為第四季度貢獻了 1.06 億美元的收益。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元，較第三季成長 77%，主要由於木材和 OSB 價格上漲。

Starting with lumber. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $21 million, a $50 million improvement compared to the third quarter. Benchmark prices entered the fourth quarter on an upward trajectory, largely driven by supply constraints from recent curtailments and closures across the North American market, combined with a slight increase in demand as buyers replenish lean inventories.

從木材開始。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,100 萬美元，較第三季成長 5,000 萬美元。基準價格在第四季度呈上升趨勢，主要原因是近期北美市場減產和關閉導致的供應限制，以及買家補充精簡庫存導致的需求略有增加。

As the quarter progressed, demand signals moderated given typical seasonal slowdowns in building activity over the winter months. As a result, benchmark pricing declined slightly through year-end and has remained relatively stable in January. For our lumber business, production volumes were moderately higher in the fourth quarter as we returned to a more normal operating posture following market-related production adjustments in the prior quarter. Our sales volumes were comparable to the third quarter. Our average sales realizations increased by 9% in the quarter. Unit manufacturing costs were comparable and log costs were slightly lower.

隨著本季的發展，由於冬季建築活動通常出現季節性放緩，需求訊號有所緩和。因此，基準價格在年底略有下降，並在一月份保持相對穩定。對於我們的木材業務，由於我們在上一季進行了與市場相關的生產調整後恢復了更正常的營運態勢，第四季度的產量略有增長。我們的銷售量與第三季相當。本季我們的平均銷售實現額成長了 9%。單位製造成本相當，原木成本略低。

Turning to OSB. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $63 million, $24 million increase compared to the third quarter. Average benchmark pricing for OSB increased by 16% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by resilient demand from single-family construction activity and limited open market supply. Our average sales realizations increased by 5% compared to the prior quarter, with the relative difference largely due to the length of our order files, which results in a lag effect for OSB realizations. Our sales volumes were moderately higher and unit manufacturing costs were moderately lower as production levels increased given less downtime for planned annual maintenance. Fiber costs were comparable to the prior quarter.

轉向OSB。第四季調整後EBITDA為6,300萬美元，較第三季增加2,400萬美元。OSB 的平均基準價格在第四季度上漲了 16%，主要原因是單戶住宅建築活動帶來的強勁需求以及有限的公開市場供應。我們的平均銷售實現額與上一季相比增加了 5％，相對差異主要是由於我們的訂單文件長度，這導致 OSB 實現的滯後效應。由於計劃年度維護的停機時間減少，生產水準提高，我們的銷售量略有上升，單位製造成本略有下降。光纖成本與上一季相當。

Engineered wood products delivered $69 million of adjusted EBITDA, an increase of $8 million compared to the third quarter. Demand for EWP products was steady at the outset of the fourth quarter, given favorable weather conditions for homebuilding activity but softened seasonally as the quarter progressed. On balance, our sales volumes increased slightly compared to the third quarter, largely attributable to solid section products. Our average sales realizations decreased for most products as previously determined price adjustments took effect in certain markets.

工程木產品的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,900 萬美元，較第三季增加 800 萬美元。由於天氣條件有利於房屋建築活動，EWP 產品的需求在第四季度初保持穩定，但隨著季度的推移，需求出現季節性疲軟。整體而言，我們的銷售量與第三季相比略有增加，這主要歸功於實心型材產品。由於先前確定的價格調整在某些市場生效，我們大多數產品的平均銷售實現量有所下降。

Our unit manufacturing costs improved compared to the third quarter and raw material costs were slightly lower for most products. In Distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $4 million compared to the third quarter, largely due to seasonally lower sales volumes, primarily in December.

我們的單位製造成本與第三季相比有所改善，大多數產品的原材料成本略有下降。在分銷方面，調整後的 EBITDA 與第三季相比減少了 400 萬美元，主要是由於季節性銷售量下降，主要是 12 月。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our first quarter and full year 2025 outlook.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給戴維，討論一些財務事項以及我們對 2025 年第一季和全年的展望。

Thank you, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 17. We generated $218 million of cash from operations in the fourth quarter, bringing our total for the year to $1 billion. We ended the year with just under $700 million of cash and gross debt of $5.1 billion.

謝謝你，德文，大家早安。我將從關鍵的財務項目開始，這些項目已在第 17 頁進行了總結。我們第四季的經營活動產生了 2.18 億美元的現金，使全年經營活動總額達到 10 億美元。截至年底，我們的現金餘額略低於 7 億美元，總債務為 51 億美元。

Adjusted funds available for distribution totaled $567 million in 2024. And as summarized on page 19, we returned $735 million back to shareholders based on 2024 results and actions. This includes our quarterly base dividends, which we increased by 5.3% in 2024 and $153 million of share repurchase activity during the year. Fourth quarter share repurchase activity totaled $28 million, and we have now completed approximately $900 million under our $1 billion share repurchase authorization.

2024 年可供分配的調整後資金總額為 5.67 億美元。正如第 19 頁所總結的那樣，根據 2024 年的業績和行動，我們向股東返還了 7.35 億美元。其中包括我們的季度基本股息，2024 年我們將其增加了 5.3%，並且全年進行了 1.53 億美元的股票回購活動。第四季的股票回購總額為 2,800 萬美元，我們目前已在 10 億美元的股票回購授權下完成了約 9 億美元的回購。

Entering 2025, we will continue to leverage our flexible cash return framework and look to repurchase shares opportunistically when we believe it will create shareholder value. It's worth noting that although our cash generation in 2024 was lower than the last couple of years due to challenging market conditions, we continue to demonstrate the durability of our portfolio and the flexibility of our capital allocation framework across market cycles.

進入 2025 年，我們將繼續利用靈活的現金回報框架，並在我們認為能夠創造股東價值時適時回購股票。值得注意的是，儘管由於市場條件嚴峻，我們 2024 年的現金創造能力低於過去幾年，但我們仍繼續展示我們投資組合的持久性以及跨市場週期的資本配置框架的靈活性。

In addition to returning a meaningful amount of cash back to shareholders in 2024, we continued investing in our businesses and deployed capital towards strategic growth opportunities. These are notable achievements given the headwinds our industry faced in 2024 and a direct result of the actions we've taken over the last several years to make Weyerhaeuser a stronger and more valuable company. Looking forward, our balance sheet, liquidity position and financial flexibility remains strong, and we are well positioned to drive further advancements across all of our capital allocation levers.

除了在 2024 年向股東返還大量現金外，我們還繼續投資於我們的業務並將資本部署到策略成長機會。考慮到我們行業在 2024 年面臨的阻力，這些都是顯著的成就，也是我們過去幾年為使魏爾豪澤成為一家更強大、更有價值的公司而採取的行動直接的結果。展望未來，我們的資產負債表、流動性狀況和財務靈活性依然強勁，我們有能力推動所有資本配置槓桿的進一步發展。

Fourth quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on page 16. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment decreased by $15 million compared to the third quarter. This was primarily attributable to an increase in variable compensation expense and a charge in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO, partially offset by a slight benefit in liability classified share-based compensation.

我們的未分配項目的第四季結果總結在第 16 頁。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 與第三季相比減少了 1500 萬美元。這主要歸因於可變薪酬費用的增加以及分部間利潤抵消和後進先出法的費用，但部分被負債分類的股權激勵費用的輕微收益所抵消。

Key outlook items for the first quarter and full year 2025 are presented on pages 25 and 26. In our Timberlands business, we expect first quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $20 million higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, largely driven by higher sales volumes and realizations in the West.

第 25 和 26 頁列出了 2025 年第一季和全年的關鍵展望項目。在我們的 Timberlands 業務中，我們預計第一季財報和調整後的 EBITDA 將比 2024 年第四季高出約 2,000 萬美元，這主要得益於西部地區銷售量和實現額的增加。

Turning to our Western Timberlands operations. As Devin mentioned, pricing for domestic grade logs increased substantially in December, and we've seen additional upward momentum in January. This is being driven by healthy demand for logs in the domestic markets as mills navigate seasonally lower log supply and the prospect of improving lumber takeaway ahead of the spring building season. Given this dynamic, we expect higher domestic sales volumes and realizations compared to the fourth quarter.

轉向我們的西部林地業務。正如德文所提到的，12 月國內原木價格大幅上漲，1 月又出現了上漲勢頭。這是由於國內市場對原木的強勁需求所推動的，因為工廠應對季節性原木供應下降，並且春季建築季節前木材外賣前景改善。鑑於這種動態，我們預計國內銷售量和實現額將比第四季更高。

Absent weather-related disruptions, we expect our fee harvest volumes to be slightly higher in the first quarter. Forestry and road costs are expected to be moderately lower due to the seasonal nature of these activities, and per unit log and haul costs are expected to be slightly higher.

如果沒有天氣因素幹擾，我們預計第一季的費用收穫量將略高。由於這些活動的季節性，林業和道路成本預計將略低，而每單位原木和運輸成本預計將略高。

Moving to the export markets, starting with Japan. As Devin mentioned, inventories and shipments of imported European lumber have decreased, allowing our customers to take market share. We expect this dynamic to continue through the first quarter. As a result, demand for our logs is expected to improve, and we anticipate higher sales volumes and realizations compared to the fourth quarter.

轉向出口市場，從日本開始。正如德文所提到的，進口歐洲木材的庫存和出貨量已經減少，這使得我們的客戶佔據了市場份額。我們預計這種態勢將持續整個第一季。因此，我們原木的需求預計會增加，我們預計與第四季度相比，銷售量和實現額會更高。

In China, log demand is expected to moderate in the first quarter in response to reduced consumption during the Lunar New Year holiday. Given this dynamic, coupled with improving Western domestic market conditions, we expect to significantly decrease our sales volumes into China during the quarter. Our average sales realizations are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter.

在中國，由於農曆新年假期消費減少，預計第一季原木需求將放緩。鑑於這種動態，再加上西方國內市場狀況的改善，我們預計本季我們在中國的銷售量將大幅下降。我們的平均銷售實現額預計與第四季相當。

Turning to the South. Despite ample log inventories, Southern sawlog demand is expected to improve slightly as mills navigate the risk of log availability challenges resulting from wet weather conditions that are typical in the first quarter. In contrast, we expect fiber markets to remain fairly stable. On balance, we expect our average sales realizations to be comparable to the fourth quarter. Our fee harvest volumes and forestry and road costs are also expected to be comparable, and we anticipate slightly higher per unit log and haul costs.

轉向南方。儘管原木庫存充足，但由於工廠要應對第一季典型的潮濕天氣導致的原木供應挑戰風險，預計南方鋸木需求將略有改善。相比之下，我們預期纖維市場將保持相當穩定。總的來說，我們預計平均銷售額實現額將與第四季相當。我們的採伐量以及林業和道路成本預計也相當，我們預計每單位原木和運輸成本將略高。

In the north, our fee harvest volumes are expected to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter, and we anticipate moderately higher sales realizations. Turning to our full year harvest plan. For 2025, we expect total company fee harvest volumes of approximately 35.5 million tons, which is slightly higher than 2024. From a regional perspective, we anticipate the South and North will be slightly higher than last year, and the West will be comparable.

在北方，我們的費用收穫量預計與第四季度相比略有下降，我們預計銷售實現量將略有上升。談談我們的全年收穫計劃。到 2025 年，我們預計公司總採伐量約為 3,550 萬噸，略高於 2024 年。從地區來看，我們預計南部和北部地區將比去年略高，西部地區則持平。

Moving to our real estate, energy, and natural resources segment. We anticipate steady demand for our real estate properties in 2025 and continue to expect a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value. In our natural climate solutions business, we expect to reach $100 million of adjusted EBITDA by year-end. And as Devin mentioned, we anticipate a meaningful increase in contributions from forest carbon credit sales in 2025.

轉向我們的房地產、能源和自然資源部門。我們預計 2025 年我們的房地產需求將保持穩定，並將繼續預計交易流量將穩定成長，且木材價值將大幅溢價。在我們的自然氣候解決方案業務中，我們預計到年底調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 1 億美元。正如德文所說，我們預計 2025 年森林碳信用銷售的貢獻將大幅增加。

For the segment, we expect full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $350 million. Basis as a percentage of real estate sales is expected to be between 35% and 45% for the year. First-quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA are expected to be comparable to the fourth quarter of 2024.

對於該部門，我們預計 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 約為 3.5 億美元。預計今年房地產銷售額的基礎百分比將在35%至45%之間。預計第一季財報和調整後的 EBITDA 將與 2024 年第四季相當。

Turning to our wood products segment. Excluding the effect of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB, we expect first quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. It's worth noting that adverse weather conditions in January resulted in temporary downtime at several of our wood products facilities. We have since resumed normal operations and expect to capture affected volumes as the quarter progresses.

轉向我們的木製品領域。排除木材和 OSB 平均銷售實現額變化的影響，我們預計第一季收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將略高於 2024 年第四季。值得注意的是，一月份惡劣的天氣條件導致我們的幾家木製品工廠暫時停產。我們已經恢復正常運營，預計隨著本季的進展，受影響的業務量將會受到控制。

As Devin mentioned, demand for wood products has softened into the winter months, which is typical for this time of year. That said, we expect market conditions and demand to improve from current levels as we head into the spring building season. Benchmark prices for lumber have been fairly stable since early December as supply and demand have approached a more balanced state. As for OSB, benchmark pricing entered the first quarter on a downward trajectory largely due to elevated channel inventories and seasonally softer demand.

正如德文所說，進入冬季，木製品需求已經減弱，這在每年的這個時候很常見。儘管如此，隨著春季建築季節的到來，我們預計市場狀況和需求將從當前水準有所改善。由於供需趨於平衡，木材基準價格自 12 月初以來相當穩定。至於定向刨花板，基準價格在第一季呈下降趨勢，這主要是由於通路庫存增加和季節性需求疲軟。

As shown on page 27, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for lumber are moderately higher than the fourth quarter average. For OSB, our current realizations are comparable to the fourth quarter average, while quarter-to-date realizations are moderately higher. For our lumber business, we expect higher production and sales volumes in the first quarter and lower unit manufacturing costs.

如第 27 頁所示，我們目前和本季迄今的木材平均銷售實現量略高於第四季的平均值。對於 OSB，我們目前的實現情況與第四季度的平均值相當，而本季迄今的實現情況略高。對於我們的木材業務，我們預計第一季的產量和銷售量將更高，單位製造成本將下降。

Log costs are expected to be slightly higher, primarily for Western and Southern logs. For our oriented strand board business, we anticipate moderately higher sales volumes compared to the fourth quarter. Fiber costs and unit manufacturing costs are expected to be slightly higher.

預計原木成本將略高，主要是西部和南部的原木。對於我們的定向刨花板業務，我們預計銷售量將比第四季略有成長。纖維成本和單位製造成本預計會略高。

Turning to our engineered wood products business. we expect improving demand heading into the spring building season. As a result, we anticipate slightly higher sales volumes for most products in the first quarter. Our average sales realizations are expected to be comparable to the prior quarter and raw material costs are expected to be slightly higher, primarily for OSB web stock. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter as demand improves into the building season.

轉向我們的工程木製品業務。我們預計春季建築旺季到來時需求將會增加。因此，我們預計第一季大多數產品的銷售量將略有成長。我們的平均銷售實現額預計與上一季相當，原物料成本預計略高，主要是對於 OSB 網材而言。對於我們的分銷業務，隨著建築季節需求的改善，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將比第四季度略高。

I'll wrap up with some additional full-year outlook items highlighted on page 26. In 2025, we expect our interest expense to be approximately $270 million. For taxes, we expect our first quarter and full-year effective tax rate to be between 16% and 19% before special items based on the forecasted mix of earnings between our REIT and taxable REIT subsidiary. Additionally, we anticipate moderately lower cash taxes relative to our overall tax expense.

我將在第 26 頁重點介紹一些額外的全年展望項目。2025 年，我們預計利息支出約為 2.7 億美元。對於稅收，根據我們的房地產投資信託基金和應稅房地產投資信託基金子公司之間的預測收益組合，我們預計第一季和全年有效稅率在特殊項目前在 16% 至 19% 之間。此外，我們預計現金稅相對於我們的整體稅費將略有下降。

For pension and post-employment plans, our noncash, nonoperating pension and post-employment expense is expected to be approximately $75 million. We do not anticipate any required cash contributions to our US qualified pension plan in 2025 but expect approximately $20 million of required cash payments for all other plans. As for capital expenditures, we expect our typical CapEx program to be approximately $440 million in 2025, which includes $120 million for timberlands, inclusive of reforestation costs, $310 million for Wood Products and $10 million for planned corporate IT system investments.

對於退休金和離職後計劃，我們的非現金、非營業性退休金和離職後支出預計約為 7,500 萬美元。我們預計 2025 年我們的美國合格退休金計畫不需要任何現金繳納，但預計所有其他計畫需要支付約 2,000 萬美元的現金。至於資本支出，我們預計2025 年的典型資本支出計畫約為4.4 億美元，其中包括1.2 億美元的林地費用（包括重新造林成本）、3.1 億美元的木製品費用和1,000 萬美元的計畫企業IT 系統投資。

This excludes the investment required in 2025 for the construction of our new EWP facility in Arkansas. The total investment for this facility is expected to be approximately $500 million and will be incurred between 2025 and 2027. As we've previously communicated, capital expenditures associated with this project will be excluded for purposes of calculating the company's annual adjusted FAD as used in our flexible cash return framework.

這還不包括 2025 年在阿肯色州建造新的 EWP 設施所需的投資。該設施的總投資預計約為 5 億美元，將於 2025 年至 2027 年間完成。正如我們之前所傳達的，在計算公司根據我們的靈活現金回報框架所使用的年度調整後 FAD 時，將排除與該項目相關的資本支出。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給德文，並期待您的提問。

Thanks, Davie. I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets. Starting with housing. Despite elevated mortgage rates for most of the year, single-family construction activity remained resilient in 2024 with starts increasing by 7% over the prior year. This was supported by healthy, underlying demand for housing, a limited inventory of existing homes on the market and incentives used by the homebuilders to offset affordability challenges.

謝謝，戴維。我將對住房和維修及改造市場發表一些評論。從住房開始。儘管今年大部分時間抵押貸款利率都在上升，但 2024 年單戶住宅建築活動依然保持強勁，開工量較前一年增加了 7%。這是由於住房需求健康、市場上現有房屋庫存有限以及房屋建築商為應對負擔能力挑戰而採取的激勵措施所致。

In contrast, multifamily starts decreased by approximately 25% in 2024, largely driven by higher interest rates and the wave of new units that came to market over the last 18 months. As we enter 2025, mortgage rates remain elevated, we'll likely continue to see some volatility with rates as the markets weigh potential impacts from policy decisions from the new administration as well as future Fed decisions on rates.

相較之下，2024 年多戶型住宅開工量下降了約 25%，這主要是由於過去 18 個月內利率上升和大量新房源湧入市場所致。隨著我們進入 2025 年，抵押貸款利率仍然處於高位，隨著市場權衡新政府的政策決定以及未來聯準會對利率的決定帶來的潛在影響，我們可能會繼續看到利率波動。

Notwithstanding the rate environment, we're expecting new home construction to improve somewhat compared to last year. For the single-family segment, there are a few underlying dynamics that support our view. First, from a buyer psychology perspective, mortgage rates in the 6% to 7% range are increasingly being viewed as the new normal, which is a different mindset from a few years ago.

儘管利率環境如此，我們預計新屋建設情況將比去年有所改善。對於單戶住宅領域，有一些基本動態支持我們的觀點。首先，從購屋心理的角度來看，6%至7%的房貸利率越來越被視為新常態，這與幾年前的心態不同。

Single-family starts reached 1 million units in 2024, a respectable level given the rate environment. We expect this positive trend for single family to continue into 2025, given solid underlying demand for housing with upside potential if mortgage rates move meaningfully lower. Second, while we do expect to see more sales activity in the existing home market, the lock-in effect will largely remain in place, which will continue to support steady demand for new home construction.

2024 年單戶住宅開工數量將達到 100 萬套，考慮到利率環境，這是一個相當可觀的水平。我們預計，鑑於住房潛在需求強勁，且如果抵押貸款利率大幅下降，還有上行潛力，獨戶住宅的這種積極趨勢將持續到 2025 年。其次，雖然我們確實預期現有房屋市場的銷售活動會增加，但鎖定效應將基本保持不變，這將繼續支撐對新房屋建設的穩定需求。

And finally, we believe the larger, public builders will continue to navigate buyer affordability challenges and are well positioned to increase production to meet pent-up demand. With respect to multifamily construction, we expect headwinds to persist in the near term as the market digests the latest wave of supply. But we could see a modest increase in activity in the back half of the year, which would be a tailwind for total housing starts.

最後，我們相信規模較大的公共建築商將繼續應對買家承受能力的挑戰，並有能力增加產量以滿足被壓抑的需求。對於多戶型住宅建設，隨著市場消化最新一波供應，我們預期短期內阻力仍將持續。但我們可以看到今年下半年的活動會略有增加，這將對整體住房開工形成順風。

So in summary, we should see some improvement in the housing market for 2025, assuming the economy and consumer remain healthy. And our longer-term view on housing fundamentals continues to be very favorable, supported by strong demographic trends and a vastly underbuilt housing stock.

總而言之，假設經濟和消費者保持健康，我們應該會看到 2025 年的房地產市場有所改善。我們對住房基本面的長期看法仍然非常樂觀，這受到強勁的人口趨勢和大量未建成住房存量的支撐。

Turning to repair and remodel, activity was softer in 2024 compared to the last couple of years. This was largely driven by a significant reduction in the buying and selling of existing homes, which is normally a catalyst for R&R activity. In addition, inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates weighed on the consumer sentiment, particularly for lower end do-it-yourself projects. As for 2025, we're expecting repair and remodel activity to improve slightly compared to last year.

談到修復和改造，與過去幾年相比，2024 年的活動較為疲軟。這主要是由於現有房屋買賣量的大幅減少，而現有房屋買賣量通常是 R&R 活動的催化劑。此外，通膨壓力和利率上升也影響了消費者信心，尤其是對於低端 DIY 專案而言。展望 2025 年，我們預計修復和改造活動將比去年略有改善。

That's based on our view that we'll see an uptick in existing home sales, which should increase demand for repair and remodel projects over the course of 2025. In addition, I think we've now worked our way through the pull forward of projects that occurred during the pandemic so this should be less of a headwind for R&R going forward.

這是基於我們的觀點，即現有房屋銷售將出現上升，這將增加 2025 年對維修和改造項目的需求。此外，我認為我們現在已經完成了疫情期間專案的推進，因此這對未來的 R&R 來說應該不會造成太大的阻礙。

Looking further out, many of the key drivers supporting healthy repair and remodel demand remain firmly intact, including an aging housing stock. And I'd also note, there is a fairly significant amount of home equity that can be tapped for repair and remodel projects. As rates come down, this could be a meaningful tailwind for the segment.

放遠來看，支撐健康修繕和改造需求的許多關鍵驅動因素依然穩固，其中包括老化的房屋存量。我還要指出的是，有相當多的房屋淨值可以用於修繕和改造工程。隨著利率下降，這可能成為該領域一個有意義的順風。

Finally, I'll provide an update on the progress we've made against the multiyear targets we announced at our Investor Day in September of 2021. As highlighted on slide 21, we've made meaningful advancements on all fronts. Starting with our portfolio. Following our recent acquisitions in Alabama, we're now more than 3/4 of the way through our $1 billion Timberlands growth target. We've grown our Natural Climate Solutions business to $84 million of adjusted EBITDA.

最後，我將介紹我們在 2021 年 9 月投資者日宣布的多年目標方面取得的進展。正如幻燈片 21 所強調的，我們在各方面都取得了有意義的進步。從我們的投資組合開始。繼我們最近在阿拉巴馬州的收購之後，我們目前已經完成了 10 億美元 Timberlands 成長目標的四分之三以上。我們的自然氣候解決方案業務已發展至 8,400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

In terms of our operating performance, we've captured $117 million of margin improvements over the last few years, a notable achievement given the inflationary and market-related headwinds we faced during this period. Additionally, through the third quarter of 2024, we delivered peer-leading EBITDA margins across all of our Wood Products manufacturing business, and maintain the number one position in EBITDA per acre in Western Timberlands.

就我們的經營業績而言，過去幾年我們的利潤率提高了 1.17 億美元，考慮到我們在此期間面臨的通膨和市場相關阻力，這是一項顯著的成就。此外，到 2024 年第三季度，我們在所有木製品製造業務中實現了同業領先的 EBITDA 利潤率，並在西部林地每英畝 EBITDA 中保持第一的位置。

On the ESG front, we remain committed to net zero by 2040 and have showcased leadership in carbon integrity by publishing our carbon credit and greenhouse gas inventory principles. And finally, we continue to demonstrate our commitment to returning meaningful amounts of cash back to shareholders. by increasing our quarterly base dividend by more than 5% annually and returning more than $5.3 billion of cash back to shareholders from 2021 through 2024. I'm extremely proud of the progress we've made against our strategic targets. Looking forward, we're committed to further advancements across each of these areas and are well positioned to achieve our multiyear goals by year-end.

在 ESG 方面，我們仍然致力於在 2040 年實現淨零排放，並透過發布我們的碳信用和溫室氣體清單原則展示了我們在碳誠信方面的領導地位。最後，我們將繼續履行向股東返還大量現金的承諾。從 2021 年到 2024 年，每年將季度基本股利提高 5% 以上，並向股東返還超過 53 億美元的現金。我對我們實現戰略目標所取得的進展感到非常自豪。展望未來，我們致力於在每個領域取得進一步進步，並有望在年底前實現我們的多年目標。

So in closing, while 2024 was an extremely challenging year in many of our key markets, particularly lumber, I'm pleased with how the organization navigated this environment and executed well across our businesses. I believe this is a testament to our people and our strategy. Entering 2025, our balance sheet is strong, and we are well positioned to capitalize as market conditions improve. We remain focused on serving our customers and driving long-term value for shareholders through our unmatched portfolio, industry-leading performance, strong ESG foundation and disciplined capital allocation.

最後，雖然 2024 年對於我們的許多主要市場（尤其是木材市場）來說都是極具挑戰性的一年，但我對公司如何應對這種環境並在各項業務中取得良好表現感到滿意。我相信這是對我們的員工和我們的策略的證明。進入 2025 年，我們的資產負債表強勁，隨著市場條件的改善，我們有能力利用這些資本。我們將繼續專注於服務我們的客戶，並透過我們無與倫比的產品組合、行業領先的業績、強大的 ESG 基礎和嚴格的資本配置為股東創造長期價值。

With that, I think we can open it up for questions.

好了，我想我們可以開始問問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is maybe digging in a bit to the commentary on demand around housing. I think Devin, it was good to hear that you see a path to some growth there for both new homes and R&R. I guess could you just give some more details on how you're thinking about inventories heading into the spring and the busy season there.

我的第一個問題可能是對住房需求的評論進行一些深入探討。我認為，德文，很高興聽到你看到了新房子和 R&R 方面一些增長的道路。我想您能否更詳細地介紹一下您對春季和旺季庫存的看法。

And especially, any thoughts on retailers and how they're approaching this market given the potential for some inflation in commodity prices against a more uncertain macro backdrop?

尤其是，在宏觀背景更不確定的情況下，大宗商品價格可能會上漲，您對於零售商有何看法，他們如何看待這個市場？

Yes. Sue, are you talking about inventories at the product level or housing specific?

是的。蘇，你談論的是產品層面的庫存還是房屋特定的庫存？

Well, inventories at the product level, more than the housing side of things, yes.

嗯，產品層面的庫存比住房方面的庫存要多，是的。

Sure. Yes. So it's differential by product. I'd say on the lumber side, generally, inventories in the channel are relatively lean. That's certainly true for Southern Yellow Pine and Doug fir, maybe a little less so with SPF. I think there's some angst about what's going to happen with tariffs there, and that may be impacting things.

當然。是的。因此，產品之間存在差異。我想說，就木材方面而言，渠道中的庫存通常相對較少。對於南方黃松和花旗鬆來說確實如此，但對於 SPF 來說可能沒那麼正確。我認為人們對關稅的走向有些擔心，這可能會對事情產生影響。

On the OSB side, inventories are a little heavy. I think you saw a little bit of a backup in the channel around the holidays and so dealers and the home improvement warehouse customers are working through a little of that. On EWP, pretty normal for this time of year. As we think about heading into the spring building season in general, I think there's just more optimism in general across the board that we're going to see some level of improvement. That's certainly what we're hearing from most of our big builder customers.

在OSB方面，庫存稍微有點重。我覺得在假日期間，通路出現了一些積壓，所以經銷商和家裝倉庫的客戶正在努力解決這個問題。在 EWP 上，對於一年中的這個時候來說相當正常。當我們想到即將進入春季建築季節時，我認為總體上人們都更加樂觀地認為我們將看到一定程度的改善。這確實是我們從大多數大型建築商客戶那裡聽到的。

On the retail side, again, I think for that part of our customer base, there is some optimism that you're going to see some improvement in R&R this year. Last year was a pretty tough year on that front. And I think we're seeing just a little bit more optimism for how that's going to play out this year. It's always hard to tell when you're in the January timeframe. Particularly, we saw a lot of weather, cold weather across the US South here recently. That's not atypical. You see a little bit of tick down in demand in the colder months. But ultimately, I think the general view is we're going to see a better year this year.

從零售方面來看，我認為對於我們這部分客戶群而言，今年大家對 R&R 的狀況將有所改善，對此抱持樂觀的態度。從這方面來說，去年是相當艱難的一年。我認為，我們對今年的情況更加樂觀。總是很難說出何時處於一月份的時間範圍。特別是最近我們在美國南部看到了許多天氣，寒冷的天氣。這並非不典型。在寒冷的月份裡，你會發現需求下降。但最終，我認為總體觀點是今年我們將會看到更好的一年。

Okay. That's helpful. And then following up, there's been obviously a lot of talk on tariffs or the potential for tariffs that could come through with the new administration. Can you talk about the implications across the various wood products and how that could potentially come in? And what it could mean for your margins and business?

好的。這很有幫助。接下來，顯然有很多關於關稅或新政府可能實施的關稅的討論。您能否談談其對各種木製品的影響以及可能產生怎樣的影響？這對您的利潤和業務意味著什麼？

Yeah. I mean, Sue, look, at a high level, I'll just note that it's still somewhat unclear if the tariffs are going to happen, when they're going to be put in place, how they're going to be affected. And so there's still, I would say, a lot of unknown about how that's going to play out. But if you were to have a 25% blanket tariff on products coming in from Canada, there will be some puts and takes.

是的。我的意思是，蘇，從高層次來看，我只想指出，目前還不清楚關稅是否會發生、何時實施、將如何影響。所以我想說，事情將如何發展仍有許多未知數。但如果對來自加拿大的產品徵收 25% 的統一關稅，就會產生一些優點和缺點。

Obviously, we do have operations in Canada, but the majority of our manufacturing is in the US. And so on balance, I would expect you'd see prices go up somewhat, at least to the point where the Canadians and Canadian manufacturing send their product into the US would be margin positive. Otherwise, you would expect capacity to come out of the system. So I think it would have some upward pricing pressure.

顯然，我們確實在加拿大有業務，但我們的大部分製造業務都在美國。因此總的來說，我預計價格會有所上漲，至少上漲到加拿大人和加拿大製造業將其產品運往美國會產生正利潤的程度。否則，您會期望容量從系統中耗盡。所以我認為這會給價格帶來一些上行壓力。

Obviously, lots of variables that go into that, including on the demand side.

顯然，這其中有很多變量，包括需求方面。

But directionally, I think you would see that go up. I would just note for us on the lumber side, about 80% of our lumber manufacturing is in the US and our Canadian lumber relatively small percentage of that does go into the US, probably 20% to 30%. So not a terribly high percentage of our lumber production in Canada comes into the US.

但從方向上看，我認為你會看到它上升。我只想指出，在木材方面，我們大約 80％ 的木材製造在美國，而我們加拿大的木材只有相對較小的比例進入美國，大概是 20％ 到 30％。因此，加拿大生產的木材中只有很少一部分銷往美國。

On the OSB and EWP side, the majority of the volume we produce in Canada does come in the US, so that would obviously be subject. But again, the vast majority of our production is in the US.

就OSB和EWP方面而言，我們在加拿大生產的大部分產品都銷往美國，因此這顯然會成為一個問題。但同樣，我們的絕大部分生產都在美國進行。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Devin, to start with, on the EWP side, can you talk a little bit about the progress you guys are making in recapturing share from open web floor trusses and this sort of dynamic this year when -- and it's been going on for a little while where sort of builders are providing more incentives to customers. So how is the competitive dynamics there on the pricing side?

Devin，首先，在 EWP 方面，您能否談談您在奪回開放式網狀地板桁架市場份額方面取得的進展以及今年的這種動態——這種情況已經持續了一段時間而建築商則向客戶提供更多激勵措施。那麼定價方面的競爭態勢如何？

Yeah. I mean, so as we've said previously, during the pandemic, when EWP supply was difficult for many of the builders out of necessity, there was some conversion to open web trusses. We've seen that a little bit slower to convert back to EWP, largely as a result just of the low lumber prices that we've seen here recently. So from a a pricing standpoint, that's been a little bit more challenging.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們之前所說的那樣，在疫情期間，由於需要，許多建築商的 EWP 供應出現困難，因此有些建築商改用了開放式腹板桁架。我們發現轉換回 EWP 的速度稍微慢一些，這主要是因為我們最近看到的木材價格較低。因此從定價的角度來看，這更具挑戰性。

Ultimately, we still expect the majority of that to come back to EWP over time, and that will certainly be supported as lumber prices get back to what we would consider a more normalized level. But ultimately, there are a lot of advantages in using in the home. And so we would expect to recapture that market share over time.

最終，我們仍然預計其中大部分將隨著時間的推移回到 EWP，而且隨著木材價格回到我們認為的更正常水平，這肯定會得到支持。但最終，在家中使用還是有許多優勢的。因此，我們希望隨著時間的推移重新奪回市場份額。

Understood. And then on the NCS side, Devin, you talked about a pretty nice uptick coming in 2025 in Forest Carbon. Can you give us some sense as to kind of -- how much did you -- credits did you sell in '24? And what do you expect in 2025 and roughly sort of the price expectation there?

明白了。然後，在 NCS 方面，德文，您談到了 2025 年森林碳排放將出現相當不錯的增長。可以告訴我們一下——你在 24 年賣了多少信用額度嗎？您對 2025 年有什麼預期？

Yeah. So -- in 2024, we sold right around 50,000 credits. Those were also at a premium price, slightly up from what we sold last year. When we think about 2025, the pipeline is filling up. So as we mentioned, we have 7 additional projects that are working their way through the process.

是的。所以 - 在 2024 年，我們售出了大約 50,000 個積分。這些產品的價格也比較高，比我們去年賣的產品價格略高。當我們想到 2025 年時，管道已經被填滿了。正如我們所提到的，我們還有 7 個另外的項目正在進行中。

The timing on some of those is always a little challenging to predict. We've got our ducks in a row, but you still have to go through third-party audits and there's a whole process that you have to go through.

其中一些事件的時間總是有點難以預測。我們已經做好了一切準備，但你仍然需要經過第三方審計，而且還要經歷整個過程。

But I would expect a pretty material uptick something in the neighborhood of 5 times to 10 times year-over-year increase in our carbon sales for 2025. And obviously, we have more coming behind those seven that we're currently in development. So we're just continuing to build out the pipeline and that will continue to grow over time, and we're just -- we're really pleased with the work our team is doing, and I think we're starting to see that progress come to fruition.

但我預計到 2025 年我們的碳排放量將年增 5 倍到 10 倍左右。顯然，除了這七款產品以外，我們還在開發更多產品。因此，我們只是繼續建造管道，隨著時間的推移，管道將繼續增長，我們只是——我們對我們團隊正在做的工作感到非常滿意，我認為我們開始看到這一點進展取得成果。

That is a big jump, Devin. Congrats on all the progress you've made there.

這是一個巨大的飛躍，德文。恭喜你在那裡取得的所有進步。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Congrats on the progress during the year. I guess I want to come back to lumber. And Devin, you were saying that from your vantage point, inventories are relatively lean in the channel. We also read and hear that there's uncertainty about the tariffs. But as you were commenting a few minutes ago, certainly, the tariff does go in place is probably more inflationary than deflationary, right?

恭喜你這一年所取得的進步。我想，我想重返木材業。德文，您說過，從您的角度來看，渠道中的庫存相對較少。我們也讀到和聽到有關關稅存在不確定性的消息。但正如您幾分鐘前所評論的那樣，關稅的實施很可能引發通貨膨脹而不是通貨緊縮，對嗎？

And so why are we not seeing in your view or what you're hearing from the field more uplift in lumber pricing right now? It seems like we have some supply constraints. We have inventories lean, we have the potential optionality, but that's probably more up and down in terms of the optionality from tariffs. Why aren't we seeing more of an uplift?

那麼，為什麼從您的角度來看或從您聽到的消息來看，我們現在沒有看到木材價格進一步上漲？看起來我們的供應受到了一些限制。我們的庫存很少，我們有潛在的可選性，但從關稅的可選性來看，這可能更多是上下波動的。為什麼我們沒有看到更多的提升？

Does it give us any worry, perhaps, about the overall demand outlook for this year? How would you have us think about that?

這是否讓我們對今年的整體需求前景感到擔憂？您希望我們怎麼看待這個問題？

Yeah. I think there are two things that I would highlight, George. First of all, is I do think the weather here recently, particularly the cold stretch across the US South did impact demand to some degree. So that's a portion of it. But I think with respect to the tariffs, on balance, there has been skepticism in the market that the tariffs are, in fact, going to go into effect.

是的。喬治，我想有兩件事我要強調。首先，我確實認為最近這裡的天氣，特別是美國南部的寒流確實在某種程度上影響了需求。這就是其中的一部分。但我認為，就關稅而言，總的來說，市場對關稅是否真正生效持懷疑態度。

And so we haven't seen people that are putting a lot of pre-buy orders out to get ahead of the tariffs. And I just -- I think that there has been a disbelief that, that will actually happen or if it does come into effect, maybe there's some delay in the effective date, so people will still have time. I mean, I think that's the answer. The late that we've heard is we'll get a little bit more clarity on that tomorrow. And so perhaps that will provide a little bit more insight into how this is going to come in effect in the time line how quickly it will come into effect.

因此，我們還沒有看到有人為了在關稅生效前搶先下大量預購訂單。我只是——我認為人們不相信這真的會發生，或者如果它確實生效，也許生效日期會有所延遲，所以人們仍然有時間。我的意思是，我認為這就是答案。據我們所知，明天我們會對此有更清晰的了解。因此，也許這將提供更多的見解，了解這將如何按照時間線生效，以及它將以多快的速度生效。

Okay. Next question is really around capital allocation. Certainly, the company going back to its goals that have set out back in 2020 has been hitting or exceeding its capital return goals and the value return. The last year the value return to shareholders has been in excess of FAD. How should we think about your priorities in the next couple of years in terms of the dividend, should we continue to expect it grows at 5% or better?

好的。下一個問題其實是關於資本配置的。當然，該公司回到2020年制定的目標，已經達到或超過了其資本回報目標和價值回報。去年股東的價值回報超過了 FAD。我們應該如何考慮未來幾年股息方面的優先事項，我們是否應該繼續預期股息成長率為 5% 或更高？

You certainly have the maturities coming up in 2026. Not that Weyerhaeuser can't handle that given it's asset based. But nonetheless, should we expect a little bit more focus on deleveraging relative to dividend relative to value return to shareholders, given that construct.

您的債務肯定會在 2026 年到期。鑑於 Weyerhaeuser 是基於資產的，因此這並不意味著它無法處理這個問題。但儘管如此，考慮到這個結構，我們是否應該更加關注去槓桿而不是股息和股東價值回報。

Yeah. Well, George, there's a lot in there, so I'll try to take them component by component. I think on the base dividend, obviously, that's a Board decision, but the ability to increase that base dividend is supported by all the work we've been doing over the last few years to increase sustainable cash flow generation. So all the work we've been doing on Timberlands acquisitions, the growth in the natural climate solutions space, improvements in OpEx, all of those things that give us confidence that no matter the scenario, we feel confident in our ability to increase the base dividend amidst challenging market conditions.

是的。好吧，喬治，這裡面有很多內容，所以我將嘗試逐一介紹。我認為關於基本股息，顯然這是董事會的決定，但增加基本股息的能力得到了我們過去幾年為增加可持續現金流所做的所有工作的支持。因此，我們在收購 Timberlands、自然氣候解決方案領域的成長、營運支出的改善等方面所做的所有工作，都讓我們有信心，無論在什麼情況下，我們都對自己增加基礎的能力充滿信心。在充滿挑戰的市場條件下派發股息。

So as we think about the debt maturities, yes, we do have $1 billion of maturities coming due in 2026. We feel really good about our ability to refinance those. I don't think anything changes from our overall capital allocation approach as we look at that. The biggest component of that is a three-year maturity that we refinanced back in 2023. There's also some smaller maturities that are a lot older that have a much higher rate. So all in, we're looking at a rate average in the mid-5s on all the debt coming due next year.

因此，當我們考慮債務到期時，是的，我們確實有 10 億美元的債務將於 2026 年到期。我們對於自己再融資的能力感到非常滿意。從這個角度來看，我認為我們的整體資本配置方法不會有任何變化。其中最大的部分是我們在 2023 年再融資的三年期債券。還有一些期限較長、規模較小且利率較高的債券。總的來說，我們預計明年到期的所有債務的利率平均在 5% 左右。

So we should be able to refinance those at comparable rates. But I think just reflecting on what we've accomplished over the course of 2024. This is exactly what the cash return framework was designed to accomplish. We essentially covered our base dividend through adjusted FAD, even in what was probably the most challenging lumber market in about 15 years or so. So we're quite pleased about how this played out over the course of the year, being able to continue to have that exceptionally strong balance sheet, making progress towards our strategic growth initiatives such as the Alabama acquisitions, the announcement on the new Timberstrand facility while also being able to maintain our programmatic CapEx at meaningful levels and being active in share repurchase.

所以我們應該要能夠以相當的利率進行再融資。但我認為只是回顧一下我們在 2024 年所取得的成就。這正是現金回報框架的設計目的。我們基本上透過調整後的 FAD 覆蓋了基本股息，即使在 15 年來最具挑戰性的木材市場。因此，我們對這一年的發展感到非常滿意，能夠繼續擁有異常強勁的資產負債表，在戰略增長計劃方面取得進展，例如阿拉巴馬州的收購、新 Timberstrand 工廠的公告同時還能夠將我們的計劃資本支出維持在有意義的水平，並積極回購股票。

So again, looking at all of those things, I think it demonstrates the power of our cash return framework, why it works so well for us, and it's going to allow us to create that value through the cycle for our shareholders.

所以，再一次回顧所有這些事情，我認為這證明了我們的現金回報框架的強大力量，為什麼它對我們如此有效，並且它將使我們能夠在整個週期內為股東創造價值。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

Hamir Patel，加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場部。

Devin, can you speak to your operating rates in lumber and OSB in the quarter? And how would that compare between the US and Canadian operations?

德文，您能談談本季木材和定向刨花板的運作率嗎？那麼美國和加拿大的業務相比如何呢？

Yeah. So operating rates in Q4, kind of in the low 80% range for lumber, high 90s in OSB and somewhere in the low to mid-70s for EWP. In terms of the breakout between the US and Canada, really no material difference. We didn't have a different operating posture north or south of the border?

是的。因此，第四季度的運作率，木材的運作率在 80% 以下，OSB 的營運率在 90% 以上，EWP 的營運率在 70% 左右。就美國和加拿大的突破而言，實際上沒有實質的差異。我們在邊境以北和以南的作戰態勢難道沒有不同嗎？

Okay. Great. And just the last question I had. If we do end up seeing tariffs driving maybe a larger uplift in US industry production, how much flexibility do you have to increase your harvest levels in the south and west to meet perhaps a window of higher US output.

好的。偉大的。這是我最後一個問題。如果我們最終看到關稅可能推動美國工業生產的更大提升，那麼你在多大程度上可以靈活地增加南部和西部的收成水平，以滿足美國產量提高的需要。

Yeah. I mean we do have some flexibility in harvest levels. I'll just give you the context that we, as a general matter, don't flex that significantly just because we're always trying to manage within a sustainable harvest range. And so you're not going to see dramatic changes. That being said, we do have a little bit of flexibility.

是的。我的意思是我們在收穫水平上確實具有一定的靈活性。我只是想告訴你，一般來說，我們不會做出那麼大幅度的變動，因為我們總是試圖在可持續的收穫範圍內進行管理。所以你不會看到巨大的改變。話雖如此，我們確實有一點靈活性。

And certainly, I think in the South, there is adequate fiber availability to support increased manufacturing across the US South at present.

當然，我認為在南方，目前有足夠的光纖供應來支持美國南部製造業的成長。

So I don't think that is going to be the bottleneck for ramping up production in the south, if that needs to happen.

因此，如果需要的話，我認為這不會成為南方提高產量的瓶頸。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Devin, thanks for the color on both potential impact from tariffs. And then also, when you're talking about the operating rates in the different businesses. So I sort of want to put those two things together. I mean, it sounds like in lumber, you actually have a fair bit of flexibility maybe you could make a little more wood in the US if need be?

德文，感謝您對關稅的潛在影響的闡述。然後，當您談論不同業務的營業率時。所以我想把這兩件事放在一起。我的意思是，聽起來在木材方面你實際上有相當大的靈活性，如果需要的話，也許你可以在美國生產更多的木材？

And as you noted, you're actually not making that much in Canada that you're shipping to the US to begin with. And it sounds like OSB, though, you wouldn't necessarily have that type of flexibility. And then I guess in EWP, it might be more complicated. You've got the -- if you look at operating rates, it sounds like you have flexibility, but they're different products, and they're made in different places.

正如您所提到的，您在加拿大賺的錢實際上還沒有那麼多，所以您要把它們運往美國。雖然聽起來像是 OSB，但你不一定有那種彈性。然後我猜想在 EWP 中它可能會更加複雜。如果你看一下營運率，聽起來你有彈性，但它們是不同的產品，而且是在不同的地方生產的。

So to the extent that you could provide us a little bit more thinking on how it might within the business that -- where you'd have flexibility to adjust versus not so much?

那麼，您能否為我們提供更多關於在業務範圍內如何調整的想法——在哪些方面您可以靈活地調整，而不是那麼靈活？

Yeah. I mean, I would just point out on OSB, so we'll talk about EWP as well. On OSB, I mean, certainly, we don't have a whole lot of upside potential because you typically are running full out in the OSB operating posture. And so it's not as though you can really flex up meaningfully with your US OSB production. But I would also keep in mind, however, ultimately, OSB is going to come in from Canada.

是的。我的意思是，我只想指出 OSB，所以我們也會討論 EWP。對於 OSB，我的意思是，我們當然沒有太多的上行潛力，因為您通常會全力以赴地採用 OSB 營運態勢。因此，你無法真正顯著提高美國 OSB 的生產能力。但我還要記住，OSB最終還是會從加拿大進口。

The industry needs it. And so there's going to be OSB coming into the US. And that's where our focus on having low-cost manufacturing comes into play. In almost any environment, low-cost wins, and we've been focused on that for a very long time. So regardless of what happens with tariffs, we're still going to be, I think, well positioned relative to most of the industry with low-cost production.

該行業需要它。因此OSB將會進入美國。這就是我們注重低成本製造的地方。在幾乎任何環境中，低成本都是取勝之道，我們長期以來一直專注於這一點。因此，無論關稅如何變化，我認為，與大多數低成本生產企業相比，我們仍將處於有利地位。

On EWP, you're right. We have some different products. So Timberstrand and Parallam are up in Canada. And so to the extent that there are tariffs that are applied to those products, we'll have to manage that. But the good news is both of those products are products that are very well received in the market.

關於 EWP，你是對的。我們有一些不同的產品。因此，Timberstrand 和 Parallam 在加拿大的股價上漲。所以，如果這些產品需要徵收關稅，我們就必須管理。但好消息是這兩款產品在市場上都非常受歡迎。

Our customers like those products and need them, and so we'll just have to work with our customers to navigate it. But ultimately, I don't see the demand for either of those products being meaningfully impacted. It will likely have some impact on price over time.

我們的客戶喜歡這些產品並且需要它們，所以我們必須與客戶合作來解決這個問題。但最終，我認為這兩種產品的需求都不會受到重大影響。隨著時間的推移，它可能會對價格產生一些影響。

Got you. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on harvest. I mean it looks like you're probably up 3% to 4% in the US South in 2025 versus 2024? Maybe tell me that's about right?

明白了。然後也許只是對收穫進行快速跟進。我的意思是，與 2024 年相比，2025 年美國南部的成長率可能達到 3% 至 4%？也許告訴我那是對的？

Yeah, that's about right?

是啊，這樣就對了嗎？

Yeah. And then is that just a function of the acquisitions that you've made? And is this fairly reflective of what we should think about as the sustainable harvest level?

是的。那麼這僅僅是您所進行的收購的功能嗎？這是否公正地反映了我們應該考慮的可持續收穫水準？

Yeah. We're within the range of sustainable harvest. Part of it is acquisitions that we've made. Part of it is we were down a little bit in '24 versus our original plan, largely just due to some weather events in Q3, which we would normally be able to make up in Q4. But just given the dynamic with lumber last year, that was a little bit more challenging.

是的。我們處於可持續收穫的範圍內。其中一部分是我們進行的收購。部分原因是我們 24 年的業績與原計劃相比略有下降，主要是因為第三季度的一些天氣事件，而通常我們可以在第四季度彌補這些損失。但考慮到去年木材市場的動態，這變得更具挑戰性。

So some of that volume will roll into '25. But that's, generally speaking, within the range of what we consider our sustainable harvest levels with the caveat that we're obviously continuing to grow the business. And so as we continue to buy more timber, that will move the harvest levels up over time.

因此，其中一部分銷量將延續到25年。但一般來說，這在我們認為的可持續收穫水平範圍內，但前提是我們顯然會繼續發展業務。因此，隨著我們繼續購買更多的木材，採伐量將會隨著時間的推移而上升。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

Looking at OSB, you're expecting moderately higher sales volume in Q1 but also slightly higher unit manufacturing costs. So I was wondering if you could just please expand on what's driving your expectations on cost there.

從OSB來看，您預計第一季的銷售量會適度增加，但單位製造成本也會略有增加。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您對成本預期的影響因素。

Sure, Matt. Yeah, we had a really nice quarter in the fourth quarter from a cost perspective and the OSB business ran really well, increase that production volume. As we look out in the first quarter, we think we'll have another good quarter from a production perspective, but we are seeing a little bit of an uptick in some of the other costs, things like energy and resins that are going to go into that.

當然，馬特。是的，從成本角度來看，我們在第四季度的表現非常好，OSB業務運作良好，產量也有所增加。展望第一季度，我們認為從生產角度來看，我們將迎來另一個好季度，但我們看到其他一些成本有所上漲，例如能源和樹脂等成本將下降。

So on the whole, that's going to be up slightly, but we continue to be very pleased with the overall operating performance in that business and the continued focus on maintaining the right cost structure.

因此，總體而言，這一數字將略有上升，但我們對該業務的整體營運業績以及對維持正確成本結構的持續關注仍然感到非常滿意。

Okay. Mostly (inaudible) then. Okay. And then just on the LSL facility, you talked about $100 million in EBITDA there before portfolio integration benefits. How do you think about those portfolio integration benefits look like?

好的。那時大部分是（聽不清楚）。好的。然後，就 LSL 設施而言，您談到了在投資組合整合收益之前，該設施的 EBITDA 約為 1 億美元。您認為這些投資組合整合的好處是什麼樣的呢？

Is that mostly, I mean, tightening that pulpwood market in the area, which benefits Timberland's business, being able to serve that demand in a more freight logical way? Or are there other potential considerations as well? And is it possible to quantify all this. I mean, if we're thinking about the economics more holistically, is this more like a 4 times build multiples and a 5 times multiple?

我的意思是，這是否主要是收緊該地區的紙漿木材市場，從而有利於 Timberland 的業務，能夠以更符合貨運邏輯的方式滿足需求？或者還有其他潛在的考慮因素？並且有可能量化這一切嗎？我的意思是，如果我們更全面地考慮經濟因素，這是否更像是 4 倍的建設倍數和 5 倍的建設倍數？

Yeah. I mean, so without giving you a specific number, you got the main ones right. So when you're talking about a market that could use a little bit more fiber demand to tension up that market. That's exactly right. That is a component.

是的。我的意思是，即使不給你一個具體的數字，你也知道主要數字是正確的。因此，當您談論一個市場時，可能需要多一點光纖需求來刺激該市場。完全正確。那是一個組件。

And as we said, 80% of the feedstock is going to be from our timberland. So that will be a nice uplift just in demand for pulpwood in that region. Also, you're exactly right, the logistics savings on having that right in the middle of a significant fee timberland ownership provides benefits as well. So it really just gives us the opportunity within that particular wood basket to optimize the log flow, which comes with OpEx savings and synergies between those two businesses.

正如我們所說，80% 的原料將來自我們的林地。因此，這將會大大提升該地區對紙漿木材的需求。此外，您說得完全正確，在支付巨額林地所有權費用的同時，節省物流成本也能帶來好處。因此，它實際上為我們提供了在特定木材籃內優化原木流的機會，從而帶來了營運成本的節省和兩家企業之間的協同效應。

So exactly what we're trying to do with the business everywhere we have manufacturing in Timberlands.

所以，我們正試圖在 Timberlands 的所有生產基地開展業務。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Congrats on all the progress. First question I had, just Devin, I'd love to get your thoughts on what the new administration and what they're doing in terms of suspending the Inflation Reduction act funding, suspending funding for the infrastructure and investment in Jobs Act. So long story short, the new administration is cutting funding for, let's say, offshore wind power, trying to minimize wind, there probably are negative read-throughs for CCS, if they continue along this track. So would love to get your thoughts about what the -- anything you're hearing from your contacts, from your involvement in the industry in terms of risks to Natural Climate Solutions, particularly given the new administration?

祝賀你取得的所有進展。我的第一個問題是，德文，我很想聽聽你對新政府的看法，以及他們在暫停通膨削減法案資金、暫停基礎設施資金和暫停就業法案投資方面將採取什麼措施。長話短說，新政府正在削減對離岸風電等方面的資金投入，試圖將風電的發電量降至最低，如果新政府繼續沿著這條路走下去，那麼對 CCS 來說很可能會產生負面影響。所以，我很想聽聽您的看法——您從您的聯絡人那裡聽到了什麼，從您參與的行業中聽到了什麼，關於自然氣候解決方案面臨的風險，特別是在新政府執政的情況下？

Sure. Well, I'll answer this by first saying a lot of this is still very much in flux as they think about how they're going to put some of these policies into effect, how this is going to run through the budget, the reconciliation bill. I think there's still a lot of unknowns. But I'll tell you, from our perspective, how we think about it. We're obviously not in offshore wind.

當然。好吧，我首先要回答的是，很多事情仍然處於不斷變化之中，因為他們在考慮如何將這些政策付諸實施，如何透過預算、和解等帳單。我認為仍有許多未知數。但我會從我們的角度告訴你我們是如何看待這個問題的。顯然，我們並不在離岸風電領域。

Certainly, that does seem to be an area where there is some risk. . For us, as we've said, we've got a number of operating wind sites. We've got another 1 that's pretty close to being done. I don't think any of this impacts the existing or soon to be existing wind sites.

當然，這確實似乎是一個存在一定風險的領域。。正如我們所說，我們已經擁有多個正在運作的風力發電場。我們還有另外一個也快要完成了。我認為這不會對現有或即將出現的風力發電場造成影響。

On solar, the economics for solar feel pretty good. I don't know that you necessarily need significant government expenditures to make that economically competitive. There are obviously tax incentives that are built into the code.

就太陽能而言，太陽能的經濟效益看起來相當不錯。我不知道是否一定需要大量的政府支出來使其具有經濟競爭力。該法規顯然包含稅收優惠政策。

And I think you'd have to, by and large, see the IRA fully amended to adjust those tax incentives, which I am skeptical that you're going to see the IRA repeal or meaningfully amended. And that's really based on a couple of things. First of all, a lot of the money from that program and from the IRA in general, is flowing into Southern red states. And so certainly, I think as the administration and Congress try to dial in how this is going to play out that will be a factor. And so we'll see how this all progresses.

我認為，總的來說，你必須看到 IRA 得到全面修改，以調整這些稅收優惠，但我對 IRA 是否被廢除或進行有意義的修改表示懷疑。這實際上是基於幾件事。首先，該計劃以及愛爾蘭共和軍的大量資金都流入了南部紅州。因此，我認為，當政府和國會試圖弄清楚如何解決這個問題時，這肯定會成為一個因素。我們將拭目以待這一切將如何進展。

But look, in any event, these things, ultimately, we believe, are all going to happen. The trajectory points towards the need for all of these things over time. Maybe we'll see less outward vocal support for some of these things here in the near term. But our view is that the ultimate trajectory and the momentum behind these things is going to carry these projects and these businesses forward, and we still believe there's plenty of growth left across these sub businesses.

但無論如何，我們相信，這些事情最終都會發生。軌跡表明，隨著時間的推移，所有這些東西都是必要的。或許在短期內，我們會看到外界對其中一些事情的支持減少。但我們認為，這些事情的最終軌跡和背後的動力將推動這些項目和業務向前發展，我們仍然相信這些子業務仍有很大成長空間。

Got it. I appreciate the color. And then just for my second question, in terms of the new EWP capacity in Arkansas, obviously, you currently produce TimberStrand in Canada using hardwood, you're going to be using Southern yellow Pine in the South. Can you just comment about how the testing has gone, using that [furnish] How has it performed?

知道了。我很欣賞這個顏色。然後是我的第二個問題，就阿肯色州新的 EWP 產能而言，顯然，您目前在加拿大使用硬木生產 TimberStrand，您將在南部使用南方黃松。您能否評論一下測試的進展情況，使用[提供]它的表現如何？

Do you anticipate any issues as you roll it out on a larger scale because assuming that the testing was done on a smaller scale. And then lastly, just your expectations for EWP operating rate in 1Q.

由於假設測試是在較小規模上進行的，因此您是否預計在更大規模推廣時會出現任何問題？最後，您對第一季的 EWP 營運率有何預期？

Yeah, sure. Well, we've been working on this for a couple of years. We have some of the best wood scientists in all of North America in-house. And so they've been doing a lot of testing. We are fortunate because we do have an existing mill that we can use to help facilitate some of the testing to get everything dialed in. But we obviously have a lot of confidence that this is going to work well and provide a product that the market wants.

是的，當然。嗯，我們已經致力於此好幾年了。我們擁有北美最優秀的木材科學家。因此他們做了大量測試。我們很幸運，因為我們確實有一個現有的工廠，我們可以使用它來幫助進行一些測試以確保一切順利完成。但我們顯然非常有信心，這將會發揮良好作用並提供市場所需的產品。

So we feel very good about it. And as we've done a lot of testing, as you would expect, before we roll out an investment of this side. So feel very good, should be well received in the market. And again, I think that's just a testament to some of the resources that we have internally. That's not as easy as one might think, turning this product to go off of a softwood furnish.

因此我們對此感覺非常好。正如您所期望的，在進行這方面的投資之前，我們已經做了很多測試。所以感覺非常好，應該會受到市場的歡迎。而我再次認為這只是我們內部擁有的一些資源的證明。把這個產品從軟木家具中轉變出來並不像人們想像的那麼容易。

So feel very good about that. In terms of operating rates for EWP in Q1, we're expecting those to be up relative to Q4. And again, Q4, we were kind of in that low 70s rates. So you'll see that move up in Q1.

所以對此感覺非常好。就第一季 EWP 的營運率而言，我們預計將比第四季有所上升。再次，在第四季度，我們的利率處於 70% 左右的低點。因此您會看到第一季出現這一上升趨勢。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Just a quick follow-on on the Timberstrand project. And piggybacking on what Mike was talking about. Recognizing that you've produced these products in the past, EWP Timberstrand is different perhaps than panels different than dimensional lumber. How do you feel about your ability to ultimately hire to run the facility, how do you feel about your ability to staff on R&D and the like related to what you're going to need to build the facility?

只是對 Timberstrand 項目的一個快速跟進。並且順便提一下 Mike 所談論的內容。考慮到您過去曾生產過這些產品，EWP Timberstrand 可能與規格木材以外的面板有所不同。您覺得您最終有能力聘請人員來營運該設施，您覺得您有能力為研發和類似建造該設施所需的人員配備？

And then separately, perhaps you've mentioned this before, if you have apologies, do you have a figure that we should pencil in for the CapEx related to that project in 2025, what the cadence might look like, recognizing it's $500 million? And then maybe philosophically, just why not include that CapEx in your FAD. And good luck in the quarter and the year.

然後另外，也許您之前提到過這一點，如果您感到抱歉，您是否有一個我們應該在2025 年為與該項目相關的資本支出寫下的數字，節奏可能是什麼樣子，考慮到它是5億美元？然後也許從哲學角度來說，為什麼不將該資本支出納入你的 FAD 中呢？祝本季和今年一切順利。

Yeah. Maybe I'll take the first part and then Davie can cover off on the CapEx component. Obviously, as you would expect, we looked at a lot of different sites as we were thinking about where to put this facility and workforce availability was a key component of that. We are fortunate that the mill manager from our Kenora facility is going to move down to Arkansas and manage the startup.

是的。也許我會先討論第一部分，然後戴維可以討論資本支出部分。顯然，正如您所期望的那樣，我們在考慮將該設施建在何處時考察了許多不同的地點，而勞動力的可用性是其中的關鍵因素。我們很幸運，我們位於基諾拉的工廠的經理將調往阿肯色州並管理這家新工廠。

So we have good resources in place. We're going to be putting some of our top people on getting this mill built and started up. We have a really strong internal R&D resources already. So there's nothing we need to do incremental to where we are on that front. So look, I'm not underestimating, you still have to go out and hire quite a few people, and so that's a process.

因此我們擁有良好的資源。我們將派遣一些頂尖人才來建造和啟動這個工廠。我們已經擁有非常強大的內部研發資源。因此，我們不需要在這方面採取任何漸進式行動。所以看，我沒有低估，你仍然需要出去僱用不少人，所以這是一個過程。

But I feel very good about our plan and how we've got this lined out to make that happen. So we'll be on track, and I'm sure we'll have this started up and it will go well like our other recent big capital projects.

但我對我們的計劃以及我們為實現這一目標所採取的措施感到非常滿意。因此我們將步入正軌，我相信我們會啟動這個項目，而且它會像我們最近的其他大型資本項目一樣順利進行。

Yeah. George, from a CapEx perspective on Timberstrand, we've said it's going to be $500 million over the course of the construction period through 2027. It's a little bit fluid on the timing of all of that. I think how I would think about it is this year, we're going to start to ramp up, go through the permitting, initial construction phases as we get towards the end of this year and into 2026, we'll start to receive more substantial pieces of equipment and get deeper into the construction process.

是的。喬治，從 Timberstrand 的資本支出角度來看，我們表示到 2027 年整個建設期間的資本支出將達到 5 億美元。所有這些事情的時間安排都有點不穩定。我認為今年我們會開始加快步伐，通過許可、初步建設階段，到今年年底和 2026 年，我們將開始收到更多大量設備並深入了解施工過程。

So we'd expect spending to ramp up in 2026 compared to 2025 and then taper off as we get to completion in 2027. And so as we think about that spend as it relates to our cash return framework and adjusted FAD, our intention, again, is to exclude that CapEx from the programmatic CapEx. The reason being we're going to treat this like we would our other strategic investments like investments in timberlands and other things of that nature.

因此，我們預計 2026 年的支出將比 2025 年增加，然後在 2027 年完工時逐漸減少。因此，當我們考慮該支出與我們的現金回報框架和調整後的 FAD 的關係時，我們的目的再次是將該資本支出排除在程序化資本支出之外。原因是我們要像對待其他策略投資（如對林地的投資和其他類似投資）一樣對待它。

If we included it alongside our programmatic CapEx, we'd otherwise be reducing the amount of cash we're going to return to shareholders. And so that's not our intention. So as you'd expect, over the course of this year, we'll report out on the CapEx that we're expanding for this project separately, and you'll be able to see that track along the way as well.

如果我們將其與計劃資本支出合併，我們就會減少返還給股東的現金數量。這不是我們的本意。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，在今年內，我們將單獨報告為該項目擴大的資本支出，並且您也可以看到此過程。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給 Devin Stockfish，請他發表最後評論。

All right. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a wonderful day.

好的。好吧，感謝大家今天早上加入我們，也感謝大家對韋爾豪澤的持續關注。祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。