威爾豪瑟 (WY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加惠好公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹投資者關係副總裁安迪泰勒(Andy Taylor)。謝謝你，泰勒先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's third quarter 2020 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our earnings release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call.

謝謝你，羅布。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論惠好公司 2020 年第三季的收益。該電話會議正在 www.weyerhaeuser.com 上進行網路直播。我們的收益發布和演示材料也可以在我們的網站上找到。請查看我們的收益報告和簡報幻燈片中有關前瞻性聲明相關風險的警告聲明，因為前瞻性聲明將在本次電話會議期間發表。

We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer.

我們將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，GAAP 的調整表可以在我們網站上的收益資料中找到。今天早上接聽電話的是執行長 Devin Stockfish；財務長戴維‧沃爾德 (Davie Wold)。

I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

我現在將把電話轉給 Devin Stockfish。

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported third quarter GAAP earnings of $28 million or $0.04 per diluted share on net sales of $1.7 billion. Excluding a special item, we earned $35 million or $0.05 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $236 million for the quarter.

謝謝，安迪。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。昨天，Weyerhaeuser 報告第三季 GAAP 收益為 2,800 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益 0.04 美元，淨銷售額為 17 億美元。排除特殊項目，我們賺了 3500 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.05 美元。該季度調整後 EBITDA 總計 2.36 億美元。

Our teams delivered solid operating performance in the third quarter against a challenging market backdrop. Notwithstanding recent headwinds, we remain well positioned in the current environment given our deeply ingrained OpEx culture and relative position on the cost curve.

在充滿挑戰的市場背景下，我們的團隊在第三季取得了穩健的營運表現。儘管最近遇到了阻力，但鑑於我們根深蒂固的營運支出文化和在成本曲線上的相對位置，我們在當前環境中仍處於有利地位。

Our balance sheet is strong, and we continue to demonstrate the durability of our portfolio and capital allocation framework across market cycles. Looking forward, we're optimistic that market conditions will improve into 2025 and maintain a constructive outlook for the longer-term demand fundamentals that support growth for our businesses.

我們的資產負債表強勁，我們繼續證明我們的投資組合和資本配置框架在整個市場週期的耐久性。展望未來，我們樂觀地認為市場狀況將在 2025 年有所改善，並對支持我們業務成長的長期需求基本面保持建設性前景。

Before moving on to our business results, I'd like to provide an update on the Alabama timberland acquisitions that we announced in July. As a reminder, the acquisitions totaled approximately 84,000 acres or $244 million and were sourced through multiple transactions, the first of which closed in the second quarter. I'm pleased to report that we completed the remaining transactions in the third quarter and earlier this month.

在討論我們的業務成果之前，我想先介紹一下我們 7 月宣布的阿拉巴馬州林地收購的最新情況。需要提醒的是，此次收購總計約 84,000 英畝（約 2.44 億美元），是透過多項交易獲得的，其中第一筆交易於第二季完成。我很高興地報告，我們在第三季和本月初完成了剩餘交易。

These acquisitions represent an attractive opportunity to enhance our portfolio with high-quality, well-managed timberlands that generate solid returns for our shareholders. In addition, they demonstrate meaningful progress toward our multiyear timberlands growth target.

這些收購代表了一個有吸引力的機會，可以透過高品質、管理良好的林地來增強我們的投資組合，為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。此外，它們在實現我們的多年林地成長目標方面取得了有意義的進展。

Including these transactions, we have deployed approximately $775 million against our target and are on track to reach $1 billion of strategic timberland acquisitions by the end of 2025. Turning now to our third quarter business results.

包括這些交易在內，我們已為實現目標部署了約 7.75 億美元，並預計在 2025 年底前實現 10 億美元的戰略林地收購。現在轉向我們第三季的業務業績。

I'll begin with Timberlands on Pages 6 through 9 of our earnings slides. Timberlands contributed $57 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $122 million, a $25 million decrease compared to the second quarter, largely driven by lower sales realizations and volumes in the West. Starting with the Western domestic market. Log pricing faced downward pressure in the third quarter as log supply remained ample, and mills carried elevated log inventories and continue to navigate a very challenging lumber market.

我將從我們的收益投影片第 6 頁到第 9 頁開始介紹 Timberlands。Timberlands 為第三季收益貢獻了 5,700 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 1.22 億美元，比第二季減少 2,500 萬美元，主要是由於西方地區的銷售實現和銷售下降。從西方國內市場開始。第三季原木價格面臨下行壓力，原因是原木供應依然充足，加工廠原木庫存增加，並持續應對極具挑戰性的木材市場。

As a result, our average domestic sales realizations decreased compared to the second quarter. Our fee harvest volumes were moderately lower as we made the seasonal transition into higher elevation and lower productivity harvest operations.

因此，我們的平均國內銷售實現量與第二季相比有所下降。由於我們將季節轉變為海拔較高且生產力較低的收穫作業，因此我們的費用收穫量略有下降。

Additionally, although wildfire activity was limited in our timberlands, dry conditions across the Pacific Northwest resulted in additional operating restrictions in certain areas, further reducing our harvest volumes in the third quarter. Per unit log-in haul costs and forestry and road costs decreased compared to the second quarter.

此外，儘管我們的林地野火活動有限，但太平洋西北地區的乾旱條件導致某些地區的經營受到額外限制，進一步減少了我們第三季的採伐量。與第二季度相比，每單位登入運輸成本以及林業和道路成本有所下降。

Moving to our Western export business, starting with Japan. Log markets softened in the third quarter, given ongoing consumption headwinds in the Japanese housing market and elevated inventories of finished products for our customers.

轉向我們的西方出口業務，從日本開始。由於日本房地產市場持續的消費逆風以及我們客戶的成品庫存增加，第三季原木市場疲軟。

In addition, there was a significant increase in European lumber imports into Japan following the resolution of a labor strike in Finland earlier this year. This led to increased competition in the Japanese market. Given this dynamic, demand from our strategic customers moderated in the third quarter. As a result, our sales volumes and average realizations for export logs to Japan were lower compared to the second quarter.

此外，今年稍早芬蘭勞工罷工解決後，日本對歐洲木材的進口大幅增加。這導致日本市場的競爭加劇。鑑於這種動態，我們的策略客戶的需求在第三季有所放緩。因此，我們向日本出口原木的銷售量和平均實現量低於第二季。

In China, log markets showed signs of moderation at the outset of the third quarter in response to lower consumption levels and elevated log inventories at the ports. As the quarter progressed, consumption improved steadily and inventories fell to their lowest levels since January.

在中國，由於消費水準下降和港口原木庫存增加，原木市場在第三季初出現放緩跡象。隨著本季的進展，消費穩步改善，庫存降至 1 月以來的最低水準。

On balance, log demand was solid from our strategic customers and we shipped more volume to China than our initial plan for the quarter. That said, our sales volumes and average realizations were lower compared to the second quarter.

總的來說，我們的策略客戶的原木需求強勁，我們向中國發貨的數量超出了我們本季的最初計劃。也就是說，我們的銷售量和平均實現量低於第二季。

Turning to the South. Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands increased slightly compared to the second quarter. Southern sawlog markets continued to soften as log supply remained ample, and mills further adjusted the lower pricing and takeaway of lumber.

轉向南方。Southern Timberlands 調整後 EBITDA 與第二季相比略有成長。由於原木供應仍然充足，南方鋸木市場繼續疲軟，工廠進一步調整了較低的定價和木材外帶。

In contrast, Southern fiber market, it's generally stable. On balance, takeaway for our logs remained steady given our delivered programs across the region. As a result, our average sales realizations were comparable to the second quarter. Our fee harvest volumes at forestry and road costs were lower as multiple tropical weather systems impacted the region in the third quarter.

相較之下，南方纖維市場則整體穩定。總的來說，考慮到我們在整個地區交付的項目，我們的原木外帶保持穩定。因此，我們的平均銷售實現與第二季相當。由於第三季多個熱帶天氣系統影響了該地區，我們在林業和道路成本方面的收費收入較低。

It's worth noting that while our timberlands were largely undamaged by these storms, whether the normal conditions limited our operating activities in certain geographies. Per unit log and haul costs were comparable to the prior quarter.

值得注意的是，雖然我們的林地基本上沒有受到這些風暴的破壞，但正常條件是否限制了我們在某些​​地區的營運活動。每單位原木和運輸成本與上一季相當。

In the North, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly compared to the second quarter. Sales realizations were moderately lower due to mix and fee harvest volumes were significantly higher, resulting from the seasonal increase in harvest activity that's typical in the third quarter.

在北方，調整後的 EBITDA 與第二季相比略有下降。由於混合和收費收穫量顯著增加，銷售實現略有下降，這是由於第三季典型的收穫活動季節性增加所致。

Turning now to real estate, energy and natural resources on Pages 10 and 11. Real estate and ENR contributed $51 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $77 million, a $25 million decrease compared to the second quarter, largely driven by the timing and mix of real estate sales. It's worth noting that real estate markets have remained solid year-to-date, and we continue to capitalize on steady demand and pricing for HBU properties with significant premiums to timber value.

現在轉向第 10 頁和第 11 頁的房地產、能源和自然資源。房地產和 ENR 為第三季收益貢獻了 5,100 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 7,700 萬美元，比第二季減少 2,500 萬美元，這主要是由房地產銷售的時機和組合推動的。值得注意的是，今年迄今為止，房地產市場保持穩健，我們繼續利用 HBU 房產的穩定需求和定價，木材價值大幅溢價。

I'll now make a few comments on our Natural Climate Solutions business. We remain on track to receive approval for 2 forest carbon projects in the US South in the coming months. Between the initial credits from these projects and the next issuance from our main pilot project, we expect to generate over 100,000 credits.

現在我將對我們的自然氣候解決方案業務發表一些評論。我們仍有望在未來幾個月內獲得美國南部 2 個森林碳專案的批准。從這些項目的初始積分到我們主要試點項目的下一次發放，我們預計將產生超過 100,000 個積分。

Looking forward, we have several additional projects in the development pipeline and are encouraged by the increasing demand for high-quality credits and growing support for voluntary carbon markets.

展望未來，我們還有幾個其他項目正在開發中，並對高品質信貸的需求不斷增加以及對自願碳市場的支持不斷增加感到鼓舞。

Turning to renewables. We continue to see strong demand for large-scale solar development and are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity as markets continue to expand. In total, we signed approximately 70 agreements for potential solar projects.

轉向再生能源。我們繼續看到對大規模太陽能開發的強勁需求，並且隨著市場的不斷擴大，我們已做好充分利用這一機會的準備。我們總共簽署了大約 70 份潛在太陽能專案協議。

Notably, we have 3 solar developments currently under construction, one of which is expected to be operational by year-end. Additionally, we're expecting 2 new wind projects to come online in the coming months, which will increase our wind portfolio from 6 active sites to 8 active sites.

值得注意的是，我們目前有 3 個太陽能開發項目正在建設中，其中一個預計將於年底投入營運。此外，我們預計未來幾個月將有 2 個新風電項目上線，這將使我們的風電投資組合從 6 個活躍站點增加到 8 個活躍站點。

Moving now to Wood Products on Pages 12 through 14. Excluding a special item, Wood Products contributed $37 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $91 million, a $134 million decrease compared to the second quarter, largely driven by lower product pricing, particularly in OSB, as well as lower sales volumes and higher unit manufacturing and costs across our Wood Products segment.

現在轉到第 12 頁至第 14 頁的木製品。不包括特殊項目，木製品公司為第三季收益貢獻了 3,700 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 9,100 萬美元，比第二季減少 1.34 億美元，這主要是由於產品價格下降（特別是定向刨花板），以及整個木製品部門的銷售下降以及單位製造和成本上升。

Starting with lumber. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was a $29 million loss as significant headwinds persisted across the North American market. Benchmark pricing for lumber reached historically low levels at the outset of the third quarter particularly in the US South.

從木材開始。由於北美市場持續存在重大阻力，第三季調整後 EBITDA 虧損 2,900 萬美元。第三季初，木材基準價格達到歷史低位，尤其是在美國南部。

This was driven by several ongoing dynamics, including cautious buyer sentiment, ample supply and soft end market demand. As the quarter progressed, supply and demand began trending towards a more balanced state and benchmark pricing improved slightly.

這是由幾個持續的動態推動的，包括謹慎的買家情緒、充足的供應和軟終端市場需求。隨著本季的進展，供需開始趨向更平衡的狀態，基準定價略有改善。

It's worth noting that lumber prices in the US South have steadily increased in October as inventories remain lean and buyers navigate supply constraints following recent tropical weather events and in response to a series of mill curtailments and closures across the region. In addition, we've started to see an improvement in repair and remodel demand in the US South, particularly from the treater segment.

值得注意的是，美國南部的木材價格在 10 月穩步上漲，原因是庫存仍然較少，買家在最近的熱帶天氣事件之後應對供應限制，並應對該地區一系列工廠的減產和關閉。此外，我們開始看到美國南部的維修和改造需求有所改善，特別是處理器領域的需求。

For our lumber business, production volumes decreased in the third quarter as we reduced our operating posture in response to a softer demand environment. This took place across our mill set and included the previously announced curtailment of our new burn sawmill.

對於我們的木材業務來說，第三季的產量有所下降，因為我們為應對疲軟的需求環境而減少了營運狀況。這發生在我們的工廠，包括先前宣布的新燒鋸木廠的削減。

As a result, our sales volumes were moderately lower in the third quarter, and unit manufacturing costs were moderately higher. Our average sales realizations decreased by 4% compared to the second quarter and log costs were slightly lower.

因此，我們第三季的銷售量略有下降，單位製造成本略有上升。與第二季相比，我們的平均銷售額下降了 4%，原木成本略有下降。

For the fourth quarter, we plan to return our lumber business to a more normal operating posture. We're encouraged by recent improvements in the southern lumber market. And given our OpEx focus and relative position on the cost curve, we're better positioned to operate through the commodity cycle compared to much of the industry.

在第四季度，我們計劃將木材業務恢復到更正常的營運狀態。我們對南方木材市場最近的改善感到鼓舞。鑑於我們對營運支出的關注以及在成本曲線上的相對位置，與大多數行業相比，我們在整個商品週期中的營運處於更好的位置。

Turning to OSB. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $39 million, an $83 million decrease compared to the second quarter, primarily due to lower product pricing. Supply and demand were relatively balanced across the North American OSB market in the third quarter. And benchmark pricing was stable, albeit at a much lower level than the second quarter average. For our OSB business, average sales realizations decreased by 25% compared to the second quarter.

轉向定向刨花板。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,900 萬美元，比第二季減少 8,300 萬美元，主要是因為產品定價下降。第三季北美OSB市場供需相對平衡。基準定價保持穩定，儘管遠低於第二季的平均值。對於我們的 OSB 業務，平均銷售額較第二季下降 25%。

Our sales volumes were moderately lower and unit manufacturing costs were moderately higher due to planned annual maintenance outages that are typical in the third quarter. Fiber costs were slightly lower in the quarter. I would note that we've seen OSB prices trend up in recent weeks, and our order files are now extended out through November.

由於第三季常見的計劃年度維護中斷，我們的銷售量略有下降，單位製造成本略有上升。本季光纖成本略有下降。我要指出的是，最近幾週我們看到 OSB 價格呈上漲趨勢，我們的訂單文件現已延長至 11 月。

Engineered Wood Products adjusted EBITDA was $61 million, a $31 million decrease compared to the second quarter. This was largely driven by lower sales volumes and higher unit manufacturing costs as we aligned our production to match customer demand and to keep inventories at appropriate levels in light of weaker July housing activity. Notably, our average sales realizations for solid section and I-joist products were comparable to the second quarter.

工程木製品調整後 EBITDA 為 6,100 萬美元，比第二季減少 3,100 萬美元。這主要是由於銷量下降和單位製造成本上升所致，因為我們調整了生產以滿足客戶需求，並鑑於 7 月份房地產活動疲軟而將庫存保持在適當水平。值得注意的是，我們的實心型材和工字托樑產品的平均銷售實現與第二季相當。

Looking forward, demand for EWP products will remain closely aligned with new home construction activity. particularly in the single-family segment. Given this dynamic, we expect a slightly softer demand environment in the fourth quarter as housing activity typically decreases into the winter months. That being said, we do have a favorable outlook for housing and EWP demand as we transition in the next year's spring building season.

展望未來，對 EWP 產品的需求將繼續與新住宅建設活動密切相關。尤其是在單戶住宅領域。鑑於這種動態，我們預計第四季度的需求環境將略有疲軟，因為住房活動通常會在冬季減少。話雖如此，隨著明年春季建築季節的過渡，我們對住房和 EWP 需求的前景確實看好。

In Distribution, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $4 million compared to the second quarter, largely due to a decrease in sales volumes and commodity margins.

在分銷方面，調整後的 EBITDA 與第二季度相比減少了 400 萬美元，這主要是由於銷售和商品利潤率的下降。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our fourth quarter outlook.

接下來，我將把電話轉給戴維，討論一些財務項目和我們第四季的前景。

Thanks, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll be covering key financial items and third quarter financial performance before moving into our fourth quarter outlook. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 16.

謝謝，德文，大家早安。在進入我們的第四季度展望之前，我將介紹關鍵的財務項目和第三季的財務表現。我將從關鍵財務項目開始，這些項目在第 16 頁進行了總結。

We ended the quarter with just under $900 million of cash, of which $114 million was earmarked for the final tranche of the Alabama timberland acquisitions we closed earlier this month. Our balance sheet, liquidity position and financial flexibility remains strong.

本季結束時，我們的現金略低於 9 億美元，其中 1.14 億美元指定用於我們本月初完成的阿拉巴馬州林地收購的最後一部分。我們的資產負債表、流動性狀況和財務靈活性仍然強勁。

In the third quarter, we generated $234 million of cash from operations and capital expenditures were $97 million. We now expect approximately $420 million of capital expenditures in 2024, which is at the lower end of our multiyear targeted range of $420 million to $440 million.

第三季度，我們的營運現金為 2.34 億美元，資本支出為 9,700 萬美元。我們現在預計 2024 年的資本支出約為 4.2 億美元，這是我們 4.2 億至 4.4 億美元的多年目標範圍的下限。

It's worth noting that we're always evaluating our capital allocation levers and have the flexibility within our framework to make adjustments in response to market conditions, alternative uses of cash and the capacity to successfully execute on our annual CapEx program.

值得注意的是，我們始終在評估我們的資本配置槓桿，並在我們的框架內靈活地根據市場狀況、現金的替代用途以及成功執行年度資本支出計劃的能力進行調整。

Importantly, we are committed to investing in our businesses across market cycles and are pleased to remain within our multiyear CapEx range despite the challenging market conditions in 2024.

重要的是，我們致力於跨市場週期投資我們的業務，並且很高興儘管 2024 年市場條件充滿挑戰，但仍保持在我們的多年資本支出範圍內。

We returned $145 million to shareholders through the payment of our quarterly base dividend and approximately $25 million through share repurchase activity in the third quarter. These shares were repurchased at an average price of $30.64 and as of quarter end, we had completed approximately $875 million of repurchase under our $1 billion authorization.

我們透過支付季度基本股利向股東返還 1.45 億美元，並透過第三季的股票回購活動向股東返還約 2,500 萬美元。這些股票的回購平均價格為 30.64 美元，截至季度末，我們已根據 10 億美元的授權完成了約 8.75 億美元的回購。

As demonstrated by the recent timberland transactions, the increases to our base dividend, our continued share repurchase activity and our commitment to investing in our businesses, we remain well positioned to navigate a range of market conditions and take advantage of compelling capital allocation opportunities that generate solid returns for shareholders.

正如最近的林地交易、我們的基本股息的增加、我們持續的股票回購活動以及我們對投資於我們的業務的承諾所證明的那樣，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以駕馭一系列的市場條件，並利用引人注目的資本配置機會，這些機會產生為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Third quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 15. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by $10 million compared to the second quarter, partially attributable to lower corporate function and variable compensation expenses. Looking forward, key outlook items for the fourth quarter are presented on Page 18 and updates to several full year outlook items are presented on Page 19.

第 15 頁總結了我們未分配項目的第三季業績。與第二季相比，該部門調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1,000 萬美元，部分原因是公司職能減少和可變薪資支出。展望未來，第 18 頁介紹了第四季度的主要展望項目，第 19 頁介紹了幾個全年展望項目的更新。

In our Timberlands business, we expect fourth quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the third quarter of 2024. Turning to our Western Timberlands operations. We expect the domestic log market to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter and anticipate steady demand for our logs.

在我們的 Timberlands 業務中，我們預計第四季度收益和調整後 EBITDA 將與 2024 年第三季相當。轉向我們的 Western Timberlands 業務。我們預期第四季國內原木市場相對穩定，原木需求穩定。

As a result, pricing for our grade logs is expected to be comparable to the third quarter. That said, we anticipate a slight decrease in our average domestic sales realizations largely driven by a lower mix of gray logs.

因此，我們的等級原木的定價預計將與第三季相當。也就是說，我們預期國內平均銷售實現量將略有下降，這主要是由於灰原木組合減少所致。

Our sales volumes to domestic customers are expected to increase in the fourth quarter as we reduced shipments to our customers in China. Forestry and road costs and per unit log and haul costs are expected to be slightly lower. And we anticipate moderately lower fee harvest volumes given fewer working days in the fourth quarter.

由於我們減少了對中國客戶的出貨量，預計第四季度我們對國內客戶的銷售將會增加。林業和道路成本以及每單位原木和運輸成本預計將略低。鑑於第四季工作日較少，我們預計費用收穫量將適度下降。

Moving to the export markets. In Japan, we expect log markets to remain soft in the fourth quarter due to ongoing consumption headwinds and elevated inventories of finished products. As a result, we anticipate slightly lower sales volumes compared to the third quarter. That said, our average sales realizations are expected to be comparable.

轉向出口市場。在日本，由於持續的消費逆風和成品庫存增加，我們預計第四季度原木市場將保持疲軟。因此，我們預計銷量將比第三季略有下降。也就是說，我們的平均銷售實現預計將具有可比性。

Turning to China. Despite ongoing consumption challenges, Chinese log markets are expected to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter, and we anticipate a steady demand from our strategic customers. That said, we anticipate a decrease in sales volumes to China compared to the third quarter as we flex logs to domestic customers. Our average sales realizations are expected to increase slightly.

轉向中國。儘管消費挑戰持續存在，但中國原木市場預計第四季將相對穩定，我們預期策略客戶的需求將保持穩定。也就是說，由於我們向國內客戶提供原木，我們預計與第三季相比，對中國的銷售將有所下降。我們的平均銷售額預計將略有增加。

In the South, we expect stable sawlog demand in the fourth quarter as mills increased operating rates in response to the recent improvement in lumber pricing. Regarding fiber logs, supply and demand were relatively balanced at the outset of the fourth quarter. That said, we could see an increase in regional supply as logging capacity shifts to fiber salvage activity following Hurricane Helene.

在南方，我們預計第四季度鋸木需求穩定，因為工廠因近期木材價格的改善而提高了開工率。纖維原木方面，第四季初步供需相對平衡。也就是說，隨著颶風海倫之後伐木能力轉向纖維回收活動，我們可能會看到區域供應增加。

As Devin mentioned, although our Timberland sustained minimal damage from the tropical weather systems in the third quarter, wet conditions limited our operating activities in certain geographies. As a result, we now expect our full year fee harvest volumes in the South to be slightly lower than 2023, and we plan to make these volumes up over the next several quarters.

正如 Devin 所提到的，儘管我們的 Timberland 在第三季度受到熱帶天氣系統的損害最小，但潮濕的條件限制了我們在某些​​地區的經營活動。因此，我們現在預計南方地區的全年費用收穫量將略低於 2023 年，並且我們計劃在未來幾季提高這些量。

On that note, we anticipate slightly higher fee harvest volumes in the fourth quarter. Our forestry and road costs are also expected to increase as some of this activity shifted from the third quarter. Our average sales realizations are expected to be comparable to the third quarter, and per unit log and haul costs are expected to increase slightly.

在這一點上，我們預計第四季度的費用收穫量將略有增加。由於部分活動從第三季開始轉移，我們的林業和道路成本也預計會增加。我們的平均銷售實現預計將與第三季相當，每單位原木和運輸成本預計將略有增加。

In the north, our fee harvest volumes are expected to be moderately higher compared to the third quarter our sales realizations are expected to be slightly higher due to mix.

在北方，與第三季相比，我們的費用收穫量預計將略有上升，由於混合，我們的銷售實現預計將略有上升。

Turning to our Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment. Real estate markets have remained solid year-to-date, and we have capitalized on steady demand and pricing for HBU properties. As a result, we are increasing our guidance for full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $340 million, an increase of $10 million from our prior guidance and a $20 million increase from our initial outlook for the segment.

轉向我們的房地產、能源和自然資源部門。今年迄今為止，房地產市場保持穩健，我們充分利用了 HBU 房產的穩定需求和定價。因此，我們將 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 的指引上調至約 3.4 億美元，比我們先前的指引增加了 1,000 萬美元，比我們對該領域的最初展望增加了 2,000 萬美元。

We now expect (technical difficulty) as a percentage of real estate sales to be 40% to 45% for the year. and we remain on track for a sizable increase in contributions from our Natural Climate Solutions business as we continue to advance toward our $100 million EBITDA target by year-end 2025. For the fourth quarter, we expect earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $10 million lower compared to the third quarter due to the timing and mix of real estate sales.

我們現在預計（技術難度）佔今年房地產銷售的百分比為 40% 至 45%。隨著我們繼續向 2025 年底 1 億美元 EBITDA 目標邁進，我們的自然氣候解決方案業務的貢獻仍有望大幅增加。由於房地產銷售的時機和組合，我們預計第四季度的盈利和調整後 EBITDA 將比第三季減少約 1000 萬美元。

For our Wood Products segment, we expect fourth quarter earnings before special items and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly higher compared to the third quarter, excluding the effects of changes in our sales realizations for lumber and OSB. Benchmark prices for lumber entered the fourth quarter on an upward trajectory as supply and demand have approached a more balanced state.

對於我們的木製品部門，我們預計第四季度不計特殊項目的收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將略高於第三季度，不包括木材和 OSB 銷售實現變化的影響。隨著供需接近更加平衡的狀態，木材基準價格進入第四季呈上升趨勢。

For OSB, benchmark prices were stable for the entire third quarter, but have increased into October. As shown on Page 20, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for lumber are moderately higher than the third quarter average.

對於 OSB，整個第三季基準價格保持穩定，但進入 10 月有所上漲。如第 20 頁所示，我們目前和本季迄今的木材平均銷售實現量略高於第三季的平均值。

For OSB, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations are slightly lower than the third quarter average, largely due to the length of our order files, which result in a lag effect for OSB realizations.

對於 OSB，我們目前和本季迄今的平均銷售實現略低於第三季的平均水平，這主要是由於我們的訂單文件的長度，導致 OSB 實現的滯後效應。

For our lumber business, as Devin mentioned, we plan to return to a more normal operating posture in the fourth quarter. As a result, we anticipate higher sales volumes and lower unit manufacturing costs. Our log costs are expected to be slightly lower than the third quarter.

對於我們的木材業務，正如德文所提到的，我們計劃在第四季度恢復到更正常的營運狀態。因此，我們預期銷售量會更高，單位製造成本會更低。我們的原木成本預計將略低於第三季。

For our OSB business, we expect moderately higher sales volumes and moderately lower unit manufacturing costs compared to the third quarter, given less downtime for planned annual maintenance. Our fiber costs are expected to be slightly higher.

對於我們的定向刨花板業務，由於計劃年度維護的停機時間減少，我們預計與第三季度相比，銷量將適度增長，單位製造成本將適度下降。我們的光纖成本預計會略高。

In our Engineered Wood Products business, we continue to anticipate close alignment between product demand and single-family homebuilding activity. And as Devin mentioned, we expect a slightly softer housing environment in the fourth quarter, given seasonal dynamics over the winter months.

在我們的工程木製品業務中，我們將繼續預期產品需求與單戶住宅建築活動之間的緊密結合。正如德文所提到的，鑑於冬季的季節性動態，我們預計第四季的住房環境將略有疲軟。

As a result, we anticipate lower sales volumes and realizations compared to the third quarter and raw material costs are expected to decrease. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be slightly lower compared to the third quarter, largely driven by seasonally lower sales volumes.

因此，我們預計與第三季相比銷量和實現量將下降，原材料成本預計將下降。對於我們的分銷業務，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將略低於第三季度，這主要是由於季節性銷售下降所致。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

現在，我將把電話轉回德文，並期待您的提問。

Thanks, Davie. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few brief comments on the housing and repair and robotical markets, starting with housing. On balance, our macro view on the housing market is largely unchanged.

謝謝，戴維。在結束今天早上的演講之前，我將從住房開始，對住房、維修和機器人市場做一些簡短的評論。總的來說，我們對房地產市場的宏觀看法基本上沒有改變。

Despite softer-than-expected activity in July, the single-family homebuilding segment has held up reasonably well this year. and continues to be supported by healthy underlying demand for housing, limited inventory of existing homes on the market and actions taken by the larger public homebuilders to offset affordability challenges.

儘管 7 月的活動低於預期，但今年單戶住宅建築領域的表現相當不錯。並繼續受到健康的住房基本需求、市場上現有房屋庫存有限以及大型公共住宅建築商為抵消負擔能力挑戰而採取的行動的支持。

In contrast, the multifamily segment remains challenged given excess supply and the impact of higher interest rates on new projects, and we expect this dynamic to remain in place into 2025. In the near term, we expect single-family construction activity to follow a typical seasonal pattern through the winter months. And assuming the macro environment and consumer sentiment remain healthy, we'd expect a stronger single-family building activity in 2025 compared to this year.

相較之下，鑑於供應過剩以及新項目利率上升的影響，多戶住宅市場仍面臨挑戰，我們預計這種動態將持續到 2025 年。短期內，我們預計單戶建築活動將在整個冬季遵循典型的季節性模式。假設宏觀環境和消費者信心保持健康，我們預計 2025 年單戶建築活動將比今年更強勁。

That said, although mortgage rates have come down from recent highs, the housing market could face some near-term choppiness as certain buyers remain on the sidelines in anticipation of lower mortgage rates and improving affordability. Regardless, our longer-term view on housing fundamentals continues to be favorable, supported by strong demographic trends and a vastly underbuilt housing stock.

儘管如此，儘管抵押貸款利率已從近期高點回落，但房地產市場短期內可能會面臨一些波動，因為某些買家仍觀望抵押貸款利率下降和負擔能力提高。無論如何，在強勁的人口趨勢和嚴重不足的住房存量的支持下，我們對住房基本面的長期看法仍然有利。

Turning to the repair and remodel market. While activity was generally stable in the third quarter, repair and remodel demand has been softer this year compared to the last several years, largely driven by cautious consumer sentiment in response to inflationary pressures and fewer existing home sales in an elevated rate environment. In general, the Pro segment has outperformed the do-it-yourself segment in 2024.

轉向維修和改造市場。雖然第三季的活動總體穩定，但與過去幾年相比，今年的維修和改造需求有所疲軟，這主要是由於消費者對通膨壓力持謹慎態度，以及在高利率環境下現有房屋銷售減少。整體而言，2024 年 Pro 細分市場的表現優於 DIY 細分市場。

As we enter the fourth quarter, we're encouraged by a recent uptick in demand from our home improvement warehouse customers and from the treater segment.

當我們進入第四季度時，我們對近期家居裝修倉庫客戶和處理器領域的需求上升感到鼓舞。

While we do expect a seasonal moderation in repair and remodel activity around the holidays, we're optimistic that demand will recover as interest rates move lower and consumer sentiment improves. And longer term, many of the key drivers supporting solid repair and remodel activity remain intact including favorable home equity levels and an aging housing stock.

雖然我們確實預期假期前後維修和改造活動會出現季節性放緩，但我們樂觀地認為，隨著利率下降和消費者信心改善，需求將會復甦。從長遠來看，支持實體修復和改造活動的許多關鍵驅動因素仍然完好無損，包括有利的房屋淨值水準和老化的房屋存量。

So in closing, despite a challenging third quarter, we continue to execute against our strategy and demonstrate the resilience of our people and our portfolio. Our financial position is strong, and our capital allocation framework is both sustainable and appropriate for the cash flows that we generate across market cycles.

因此，最後，儘管第三季充滿挑戰，我們仍繼續執行我們的策略，並展示我們的員工和投資組合的韌性。我們的財務狀況強勁，我們的資本配置框架既可持續又適合我們在整個市場週期中產生的現金流。

Looking forward, we remain focused on achieving our multiyear growth targets, delivering peer-leading performance, serving our customers and driving long-term value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於實現多年成長目標、提供同業領先的業績、服務客戶並為股東創造長期價值。

And finally, we are encouraged by recent improvements in the lumber market and we're optimistic that we're going to see a stronger demand environment for our products in 2025.

最後，木材市場最近的改善令我們感到鼓舞，我們樂觀地認為 2025 年我們的產品將出現更強勁的需求環境。

So with that, I think we can open it up for questions.

因此，我認為我們可以開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

My first question is on lumber and focusing in on the improving supply-demand dynamics that you talked to in your comments. Can you just give us some more color on how you're seeing that building as we think about not just the fourth quarter, but then going into 2025?

我的第一個問題是關於木材的，重點是您在評論中談到的供需動態的改善。您能否告訴我們更多關於您如何看待這座建築的信息，因為我們不僅考慮第四季度，而且考慮到 2025 年？

And how are you thinking about the ability for yourselves and for the industry in general to respond if we do see that demand recovery coming through over the next couple of quarters. how quickly do you think you'll ramp production? And what will that look like across the next several quarters?

如果我們確實看到未來幾季需求復甦，您如何看待自己和整個產業的應對能力？您認為您將多快提高產量？未來幾季會是什麼樣子？

Sure. Good question, Sue. I mean, when we look at what's happening in the lumber market right now, it's really a combination of 2 things. There's a supply dynamic and there is a demand dynamic. I think on the supply side, obviously, this year, we've seen a fairly significant amount of capacity come out of the system.

當然。好問題，蘇。我的意思是，當我們看看木材市場目前正在發生的事情時，它實際上是兩件事的組合。有供給動態，也有需求動態。我認為在供應方面，顯然，今年我們已經看到系統釋放出相當大量的產能。

Much of that, maybe 3.5 billion board feet or somewhere in that realm, that's coming out either permanently or indefinite curtailments would suggest it's not coming back in the near term.

其中大部分，可能是 35 億板英尺或該領域的某個地方，無論是永久還是無限期削減，都表明它不會在短期內恢復。

There's also been a lot of softer supply reductions in terms of people dialing back production within their existing mill set. So a fairly significant amount of supply has come out of the system. It usually takes a little while from the time an announcement is made until the time that the lumber starts shipping from that mill.

由於人們減少了現有工廠的生產，供應也出現了許多溫和的減少。因此，相當大量的供應已經從系統中流出。從發佈公告到木材開始從該工廠發貨通常需要一段時間。

And I think we're starting to really see the impacts from some of those closures. So that's a component. And that comes on top of, by the way, some mill closures that we saw last year in 2023. So it's been a pretty significant period of reduction in capacity.

我認為我們開始真正看到其中一些關閉的影響。這就是一個組件。順便說一句，這是在去年 2023 年關閉一些工廠的基礎上發生的。因此，這是一個相當顯著的產能減少時期。

On the demand side, as we mentioned, single-family housing is holding up reasonably well. We expect that to continue. We're encouraged that we're seeing some pickup in demand from the R&R side. We're seeing treater buying activity picking up and even a little increased activity from the big box stores.

在需求方面，正如我們所提到的，單戶住宅的表現相當不錯。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。令我們感到鼓舞的是，我們看到 R&R 方面的需求有所回升。我們看到治療師的購買活動增加，甚至大型商店的購買活動也有所增加。

So that's positive. As we roll into 2025, our expectation is that we're going to see a better housing environment, particularly on the single-family side, and we expect R&R to pick up as well.

所以這是積極的。進入 2025 年，我們的期望是我們將看到更好的住房環境，特別是在單戶住宅方面，我們預計 R&R 也會有所改善。

And the challenge there from an industry standpoint is there's a little bit of latent capacity in terms of maybe people could operate at a slightly higher operating rate. But all of that capacity that's coming out of the system is really not going to come back, I think, in the near term, if at all. So if you get a meaningful uptick in demand, I think that puts some upward pressure on pricing as we roll into the spring building season next year.

從行業的角度來看，這裡面臨的挑戰是，人們可能會以略高的開工率進行運營，因此存在一些潛在的產能。但我認為，從系統中釋放出來的所有容量在短期內實際上不會恢復（如果有的話）。因此，如果需求大幅上升，我認為隨著明年春季建築季節的到來，這會對價格造成一些上行壓力。

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then maybe focusing on the other side of that, which is the cost piece of it. Can you talk a little bit about the OpEx has obviously been very effective here. How are you seeing that coming through over the course of '25, the opportunities there? And what that could mean for your margins as things do tighten up?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。然後也許會關注另一面，即成本部分。您能談談營運支出在這方面顯然非常有效嗎？您如何看待 25 年期間的機會？隨著情況確實收緊，這對您的利潤意味著什麼？

Yes. I mean, clearly, the last few years have been challenging with the inflationary pressures that we've seen, and that's not unique to us, by the way. That's pretty much every industry. So that's been a headwind, no question. I think we're going to continue to stay focused on cost as we always do. We've got a lot of initiatives underway, whether it's reliability, whether it's automation, whether it's just pulling controllable costs out of the system. That's something we're working on. every day, every week, every year.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，過去幾年我們所看到的通膨壓力一直充滿挑戰，順便說一句，這並不是我們所獨有的。幾乎每個行業都是如此。所以毫無疑問，這是一個逆風。我認為我們將一如既往地繼續關注成本。我們正在進行許多舉措，無論是可靠性、自動化或只是將可控成本從系統中拉出來。這就是我們正在努力的事情。每天，每週，每年。

I think the big opportunity for us as we roll into next year, if we're in a more normalized demand environment and we can ramp our production up to the capacity levels get the higher operating rates, we get a lot of benefit to unit costs. And so that could be a pretty significant tailwind for us next year in our production environment from an OpEx standpoint and a margin standpoint.

我認為，隨著明年的到來，我們面臨著巨大的機會，如果我們處於更正常化的需求環境中，並且我們可以將產量提高到產能水平，從而獲得更高的開工率，那麼我們將在單位成本方面獲得很大的好處。因此，從營運支出和利潤的角度來看，這對我們明年的生產環境來說可能是相當重要的推動力。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

First question and recognizing the color you gave on the fourth quarter for Timberland in the West and in particular export markets, and there are no guarantees in life, we get it. But what are your contacts in the field saying, what are your partners saying about the outlook for exports in the first half of '25?

第一個問題，並且認識到您對第四季度 Timberland 在西方特別是出口市場的評價，而且生活沒有保障，我們明白了。但您在該領域的聯絡人和合作夥伴對 25 年上半年的出口前景有何看法？

As we mix the macro I don't know if there's any trade policy consideration we need to have but what's your view on Western exports in particular, first half?

當我們混合宏觀經濟時，我不知道我們是否需要考慮任何貿易政策，但您對西方出口（特別是上半年）有何看法？

Yes. So I'll speak to Japan and first. One of the dynamics that's at play right now in Japan is, as we mentioned, there was a pretty significant amount of volume that came into Europe in Q3. And so that puts some competitive pressures in that market. I do think a lot of that would at current pricing in Japan is probably margin negative.

是的。所以我首先要談談日本。正如我們所提到的，日本目前正在發揮作用的動力之一是，第三季有相當大的數量進入歐洲。因此，這給該市場帶來了一些競爭壓力。我確實認為，按照日本目前的定價，其中許多可能是負利潤。

So my expectation is you're going to see some of that European flow into Japan dial back as we get into next year and work through some of the existing inventory.

因此，我的預期是，當我們進入明年並處理一些現有庫存時，您將看到一些流入日本的歐洲資金減少。

Our customers are very competitive, and I expect that they will go out and regain that market share. So I think next year, as we think about the first half into Japan, that should be a solid demand environment. there's some correlation on the pricing side of what happens with Western domestic log markets, those things typically move in tandem. But our expectation is Japan should be fine as we move into next year.

我們的客戶競爭非常激烈，我預計他們會走出去並重新獲得市場份額。因此，我認為明年，當我們考慮日本的上半年時，這應該是一個堅實的需求環境。西方國內原木市場的定價方面有一定的相關性，這些事情通常是同步變化的。但我們的期望是，隨著我們進入明年，日本應​​該會很好。

I think China is a little bit of a wildcard. I mean there's always a demand from our customers for Pacific Northwest logs into China. And generally speaking, we have the ability to move more volume into China if we so desire. It's usually just a question of what does the margin opportunity look like.

我認為中國有點不確定。我的意思是，我們的客戶始終對太平洋西北原木進入中國有需求。一般來說，如果我們願意，我們有能力將更多數量轉移到中國。這通常只是一個利潤機會是什麼樣的問題。

And I think there are some real unknowns as we head into next year. We've obviously seen fiscal policy in China try to spur the economy. They're making some strides to try to repair the real estate market in China. If that gets legs, you could see some upside there.

我認為，當我們進入明年時，確實存在一些未知因素。我們顯然看到中國的財政政策試圖刺激經濟。他們正在努力修復中國的房地產市場。如果這得到了支持，你可能會看到一些好處。

There's always the question about volume flowing in from New Zealand and Australia and some of these other supply regions. I will say in China. One thing that I do expect to continue to be a tailwind is we've seen the volumes of logs coming in from Europe drop off dramatically as they work through that salvage volume. So I don't think it takes a whole lot of pickup in demand for us to see that China market improve. But as I say, a lot of variables that go into that market.

關於從紐西蘭和澳洲以及其他一些供應地區流入的數量始終存在的問題。我會說在中國。我確實預計將繼續成為順風的一件事是，我們已經看到從歐洲運來的原木量在處理廢品時急劇下降。因此，我認為我們不需要大量的需求回升就能看到中國市場的改善。但正如我所說，進入該市場的變數很多。

Okay. Appreciate it. So it sounds -- where that provides us, it sounds like it's probably getting better from second half of the year.

好的。欣賞它。聽起來，從今年下半年開始，情況可能會有所改善。

Into Japan certainly.

當然是去日本了

For wood, and this is up there with what have you done for me lately, right, in quotes? And Weyerhaeuser has done a tremendous job on margins in the lumber business with OpEx or black at the bottom. It's a question that comes up periodically.

對於木材，這與你最近為我所做的事情一樣，對吧，用引號引起來？惠好公司 (Weyerhaeuser) 在木材業務的利潤率方面取得了巨大的成就，其中營運支出或黑色處於底部。這是一個定期出現的問題。

Will you be able to -- if you hold the market constant can you get to breakeven EBITDA with whatever program you have in place for OpEx in '25, recognizing it's a very challenging market and the like? Or if there's no improvement -- hopefully, it will be, but assuming there's no improvement, do we need to resign ourselves to a modest EBITDA losses in lumber for the foreseeable future? How would you have us think about that?

如果你保持市場不變，無論你在 25 年為 OpEx 制定什麼計劃，你都能實現盈虧平衡 EBITDA 嗎？或者，如果沒有改善——希望是這樣，但假設沒有改善，我們是否需要在可預見的未來接受木材的適度 EBITDA 損失？您會讓我們如何考慮這個問題？

Yes. I mean I'm certainly a lot more optimistic about 2025 for a couple of reasons. First of all, I do think the demand environment is going to pick up. So that's our house view. But putting that aside, when you look at our lumber portfolio, we are well positioned on the cost curve, notwithstanding that this has been one of the most challenging lumber markets we've seen in a very long time on an inflation-adjusted basis, these lumber prices are kind of great recession type dynamic.

是的。我的意思是，出於幾個原因，我對 2025 年肯定更加樂觀。首先，我確實認為需求環境將會好轉。這就是我們家的景色。但拋開這一點，當你看看我們的木材投資組合時，我們在成本曲線上處於有利位置，儘管這是我們很長一段時間以來在通貨膨脹調整後看到的最具挑戰性的木材市場之一，這些木材價格是一種巨大的衰退型動態。

Certainly, we're not pleased. We're not satisfied with losing money in lumber. We've got a whole lot of work in place to make sure that we continue to take costs out of the system, and we're doing that. But what I would say is it's just not sustainable as an industry to have everybody cash flow negative across the market.

當然，我們不高興。我們不滿足於木材方面的損失。我們已經做了很多工作來確保我們繼續降低系統成本，而且我們正在這樣做。但我想說的是，作為一個產業，整個市場上每個人的現金流都為負，這是不可持續的。

And so we've seen the result of that with a significant amount of capacity coming out of the system, you've seen that just even here very recently. That's tightened things up. You're seeing prices come up.

因此，我們已經看到了系統釋放出大量容量的結果，您最近在這裡也看到了這一點。這就把事情收緊了。你會看到價格上漲。

So over the long term, we will make money in lumber. I think, again, we've got to put this in context, the challenging market we've been in. It's been difficult, but I think brighter days are ahead and we will certainly navigate it better than most, and I expect our businesses to make money and frankly, earn a profit well above our cost of capital in all of our manufacturing businesses. So that would be my expectations for 2025.

因此從長遠來看，我們將透過木材賺錢。我認為，我們必須再次將這一點放在背景中，也就是我們所處的充滿挑戰的市場中。這很困難，但我認為光明的日子就在前方，我們肯定會比大多數人更好地應對它，我希望我們的企業能夠賺錢，坦白說，賺取的利潤遠遠高於我們所有製造業務的資本成本。這就是我對 2025 年的期望。

George, I'd just add -- this is Davie. At current lumber prices, we would expect to be EBITDA a positive.

喬治，我想補充一點──這是戴維。以目前的木材價格，我們預計 EBITDA 將為正值。

Understood. And should we expect OSB kind of flat to up based on current prices and EWP to be down sequentially 3Q to 4Q?

明白了。根據當前價格，我們是否應該預期 OSB 會持平，而 EWP 將在第三季至第四季連續下降？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we've seen a pickup in OSB prices here over the last few weeks. When you look at our earnings materials, that's not fully reflected in quarter-to-date just because there's a time lag with the length of our order files. But if you project that out over the course of the quarter, and like I said, our order files have now pushed out a little bit further than normal for this time of year.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，過去幾週我們看到定向刨花板價格有所上漲。當您查看我們的收益資料時，您會發現這一點並未完全反映在季度至今，因為我們的訂單文件的長度存在時間滯後。但如果你在整個季度中進行預測，就像我說的那樣，我們的訂單文件現在比一年中這個時候的正常情況要多一些。

So I think directionally, that's positive. We're expecting more volume in OSB since we don't have annual maintenance outages. So I think directionally, you're right there. And similarly on EWP given our expectations around pricing and volume.

所以我認為從方向上來說，這是積極的。由於我們沒有每年的維護中斷，因此我們預計 OSB 的產量會增加。所以我認為，從方向上來說，你就在那裡。考慮到我們對定價和銷售的預期，EWP 也是如此。

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

庫爾特·英格，D.A.戴維森。

Devin, you touched a couple of times on kind of the improved demand in the South, specifically from the treaters. Does that improvement buck typical seasonal trends at this stage and maybe even seeing a positive inflection on a year-over-year basis? And I guess, secondarily, do you think that's an indication of better takeaway from the end consumer or perhaps an inventory positioning what looks like attractive price levels?

德文，您多次談到南方需求的改善，特別是來自治療師的需求。這種改善是否與現階段的典型季節性趨勢相反，甚至可能比去年同期出現正面的變化？其次，我想，您認為這是否表明最終消費者獲得了更好的收益，或者可能表明庫存定位看起來具有吸引力的價格水平？

Yes. I mean the historical buying patterns for the treaters, it wouldn't be unusual for them to build a little inventory in Q4 if they saw prices hit a point where they thought that could be advantageous. Over the last several years, I would say buying patterns from treaters has been a little different than prior history. And so they've been more opportunistic throughout the year.

是的。我的意思是，根據處理商的歷史購買模式，如果他們看到價格達到他們認為可能有利的水平，他們在第四季度建立少量庫存並不罕見。在過去的幾年裡，我想說，從治療師那裡購買的模式與以前的歷史有些不同。因此，他們這一整年都更加投機取巧。

In terms of is this building inventory for next year or a pickup in customer demand, I suspect it's probably a little bit of both. I do think that we -- just because we've seen that in a couple of different channels, I think we're seeing a little bit of a pickup in R&R activity right now. And so that's I think that's a component as well. It's hard to say exactly how much of one versus the other, but I think it's a little of both.

就明年的庫存建設還是客戶需求的回升而言，我懷疑兩者可能都有一點。我確實認為我們——只是因為我們在幾個不同的管道中看到了這一點，我認為我們現在看到 R&R 活動有所回升。所以我認為這也是一個組成部分。很難確切地說其中一種與另一種關係有多少關係，但我認為兩者都有一點。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And moving to EWP, a lot of discussion in the past couple of years around shifts in floor systems, I-joist versus Open Web truss, part of that certainly seemed to stem from availability.

知道了。好的。這是有道理的。轉向 EWP，過去幾年圍繞地板系統、工字托樑與開放式網路桁架的轉變進行了大量討論，其中一部分似乎確實源於可用性。

But if I look at I-joist volumes this year, it looks like they're going to be down about 25% from peak, starts will be down maybe mid-teens percentage Curious how you would reconcile that difference in how you think about EWP demand relative to starts going forward and the potential for maybe some share recapture?

但如果我看看今年工字托樑的銷量，看起來它們將比峰值下降約 25%，開工率可能會下降百分之十幾左右，很好奇您將如何協調您對 EWP 的看法上的差異相對於未來開工的需求以及重新奪回部分份額的潛力？

Yes. I mean, I think you're exactly right. During the peak of the pandemic years availability of I-joist and engineered wood products in general was pretty stretched. And so builders had to switch over to whatever products that they could find to keep building homes.

是的。我的意思是，我認為你是完全正確的。在疫情高峰期，工字托樑和工程木製品的供應量整體上相當緊張。因此，建築商必須轉而使用他們能找到的任何產品來繼續建造房屋。

My expectation is that, ultimately, we will be able to recapture most of that market from Open Web. The challenge at present just has been that lumber prices have been so low. That's been a little bit more difficult in today's pricing environment. I do think as pricing for lumber hits a more normalized level, that will be a little easier to recapture share. And certainly, that's our expectation over time.

我的期望是，最終我們將能夠從開放網路中奪回大部分市場。目前的挑戰是木材價格如此低。在當今的定價環境下，這有點困難。我確實認為，隨著木材定價達到更正常化的水平，重新奪回份額將會更容易一些。當然，這是我們隨著時間的推移的期望。

Okay. And then just one more quick one on capital returns. Year-to-date base dividends and share repurchases have outpaced FAD. And I'm curious how that factors into the thought process or potential for a supplemental dividend in and how important having at least some level of supplemental dividend is kind of within that variable returns framework that you have?

好的。然後是關於資本回報的快速介紹。年初至今的基本股利和股票回購已經超過了 FAD。我很好奇這如何影響思考過程或補充股息的潛力，以及在您擁有的可變回報框架內至少擁有一定水平的補充股息有多重要？

Yes. You bet, Kurt. I mean I'd just say we've still got some time left in the year to see how commodity pricing plays out. As we've mentioned, pricing has ticked up here over the past several weeks, particularly Southern Yellow Pine. So at this point, I'd expect we'll be in the ballpark of covering the base dividend with adjusted FAD even if that pricing momentum doesn't continue.

是的。你敢打賭，庫爾特。我的意思是，我只想說，今年我們還剩下一些時間來看看大宗商品定價如何發揮作用。正如我們所提到的，過去幾週這裡的價格有所上漲，特別是南方黃松。因此，在這一點上，我預計即使這種定價勢頭不會持續下去，我們也會用調整後的 FAD 來覆蓋基本股息。

And so yes, it's possible that we wouldn't have a substantial amount under our framework above and beyond that, but there's nothing in our framework that would preclude us from you mean a supplemental dividend above and beyond that 75, 80 or even thinking about share repurchase above and beyond that 75 to 80 as we've talked about in the past.

所以，是的，我們的框架下可能不會有超出這個數字的大量金額，但我們的框架中沒有任何東西會阻止我們獲得高於 75、80 甚至考慮的補充股息正如我們過去討論的那樣，回購股票的數量要高於75 至80。

But regardless of all that, I'd point out that despite the challenging markets, this is exactly the type of year we had in mind when we designed this framework. We've been able to be active in share repurchase. We've been able to continue to invest in the growth of our business, both through the Timberland acquisitions, organic CapEx. We've increased the base dividend.

但無論如何，我要指出的是，儘管市場充滿挑戰，但這正是我們設計此框架時所考慮的一年。我們一直能夠積極參與股票回購。透過 Timberland 收購和有機資本支出，我們能夠繼續投資於我們的業務成長。我們增加了基本股利。

And ultimately, all of those things are going to leave us very well positioned when markets inevitably improve. So really, to us, it just demonstrates the power of our flexible cash return framework in action and allows us to allocate our cash in the way that creates most value for shareholders over time.

最終，當市場不可避免地改善時，所有這些都將使我們處於有利地位。所以實際上，對我們來說，它只是展示了我們靈活的現金回報框架在行動中的力量，並使我們能夠以隨著時間的推移為股東創造最大價值的方式分配現金。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Just following up on George's question on Timberlands. Looking at the outlook for 4Q suggests '24 might end up being kind of one of the lowest EBITDA year for Timberland since Plum Creek merger. And I'm just wondering, you talked about kind of potential improvement drivers next year in the West and export markets. I'm just wondering if you can talk about what you're seeing potentially driving improvement in the US South?

只是跟進喬治關於 Timberlands 的問題。從第四季的前景來看，24 年可能最終成為 Timberland 自 Plum Creek 合併以來 EBITDA 最低的一年。我只是想知道，您談到了明年西方和出口市場的潛在改善動力。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您認為有哪些因素可能推動美國南部的改善？

Yes. I mean, so as we think about the Timberlands business as a whole, it's really mostly a function of what's happening with Western log prices. And it's a really challenging market to drive log prices up even in a tension wood basket when lumber prices are at the levels that they've been most of this year. So I would just say as an outset, Timberlands as a whole, as lumber prices on the West Coast improve, which we believe they will, and they have to some extent already, you'll see log prices follow that.

是的。我的意思是，當我們將 Timberlands 業務視為一個整體時，它實際上主要是西方原木價格變化的函數。當木材價格處於今年大部分時間的水平時，即使在木材籃子緊張的情況下，推動原木價格上漲也是一個非常具有挑戰性的市場。因此，我首先要說的是，Timberlands 作為一個整體，隨著西海岸的木材價格上漲，我們相信他們會上漲，而且他們已經在某種程度上已經上漲，你會看到原木價格隨之上漲。

In the South, we've had a little less volume this year than we had expected. That's largely a function of some weather events. The thing about timberlands volume is if you don't get it now, you'll always get it later. And so we'll roll that volume into future quarters.

在南方，今年的銷售量比我們預期的要少。這很大程度上是一些天氣事件的結果。關於林地體積的問題是，如果你現在沒有得到它，你以後總會得到它。因此，我們將把這個數量滾動到未來的幾個季度。

We do think that over time in a more normalized environment, many of those markets that have seen additional capacity come in will get some pricing pressure. And we've seen that over the years as the new capacity is rolled into the South.

我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，在更正常化的環境中，許多已經出現額外產能的市場將面臨一些定價壓力。多年來，隨著新產能進入南方，我們已經看到了這一點。

We're continuing to look for export opportunities out of the US South that should help tension some of those markets as well. So we're going to continue working at that. And ultimately, we think over the long term, you'll see price improvement in the South.

我們正在繼續尋找美國南部的出口機會，這也應該有助於緩解其中一些市場的緊張局勢。所以我們將繼續努力。最終，我們認為從長遠來看，你會看到南方的價格有所改善。

Obviously, that's been slow to come. But as a timberlands business more holistically I think as you see lumber prices in the West pick up, you're going to see log prices in the West return to a more normalized level, which has a pretty meaningful impact on our overall earnings in the Timberland segment.

顯然，這一切來得很慢。但作為一個更全面的林地企業，我認為當你看到西方的木材價格上漲時，你會看到西方的原木價格恢復到更正常化的水平，這對我們在西方的整體收入產生了相當有意義的影響。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then for the hurricanes, and I'm sorry if I missed this, but is there sort of an all-in estimate on the impact of the hurricanes in terms of tons or EBITDA or however you'd kind of measure it? And then just piggybacking on that, when you see kind of these hurricanes typically, is demand for lumber or OSB or EWP, is it is sort of destroyed, deferred, maybe some incremental demand is created? Just how you kind of characterize the impact?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後是颶風，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但是否有以噸數或 EBITDA 為單位對颶風影響進行全面估計，或者以何種方式衡量它？然後，當你看到這些颶風時，通常會看到對木材、OSB 或 EWP 的需求，它是否被破壞、推遲，也許會產生一些增量需求？您如何描述其影響？

Yes. I mean, so first and foremost, we were very fortunate because the path of the hurricane really traveled in between a lot of our timberland. So we didn't really have any meaningful impact in terms of damage to our timberlands. So the real impact was we weren't able to move as much volume in the South as we had planned.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我們非常幸運，因為颶風的路徑確實穿過了我們的許多林地。因此，我們對林地的破壞並沒有真正產生任何有意義的影響。因此，真正的影響是我們無法按照計劃在南方運送盡可能多的貨物。

And so call it maybe 1%, 2% in terms of volume impact in the quarter. in the South. Much of that, frankly, was on the fiber side, so not as much of a margin impact at as if it was impacting grade.

因此，就本季的銷量影響而言，可能是 1%、2%。在南方。坦白說，其中大部分是在纖維方面，因此對利潤的影響並不像對品味的影響那麼大。

The impact on overall market dynamics, it really it depends on the specific storm, right? Because as it moves through, it's going to have some impact on mill operations. So on the demand side, it typically hurts and obviously people not out building houses and have to work through the wet weather there.

對整體市場動態的影響，這確實取決於具體的風暴，對嗎？因為隨著它的移動，它將對工廠的運作產生一些影響。因此，在需求方面，這通常會造成傷害，顯然人們不會出去建造房屋，而必須在潮濕的天氣中工作。

Now the flip side of that is you also oftentimes see a pickup in wood demand as the reconstruction happens. And so it really just depends there are puts and takes on both the demand and the supply side. I think in this one, at least for us, it didn't have a meaningful impact on the markets.

另一方面，隨著重建的進行，您也經常看到木材需求的增加。因此，這實際上只取決於需求方和供應方的看跌選擇權和承兌選擇權。我認為，至少對我們來說，這並沒有對市場產生有意義的影響。

You'll see -- in certain geographies, you'll see a little bit of excess fiber flowing into the market as people that did have damage to their timberlands go out and start that salvage activity. That usually hits the fiber markets a little bit heavier than the grade markets. So we may see a little bit of that in Q4, but I'm not sure that's going to be material on the hold to us.

您會看到，在某些地區，您會看到一些多餘的纖維流入市場，因為林地受到損壞的人們開始進行搶救活動。這通常對纖維市場的打擊比對等級市場的打擊要重一些。因此，我們可能會在第四季度看到一些這樣的情況，但我不確定這對我們來說是否有實質影響。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Since we've covered a lot on Wood Products and Timberlands, I thought I'd ask some NCS questions. Maybe starting with -- can you give us a sense of how much acreage are tied to the 3 solar development projects that are under construction?

由於我們已經介紹了很多關於木製品和 Timberlands 的內容，我想我應該問一些 NCS 問題。也許首先——您能否讓我們了解一下與正在建造的 3 個太陽能開發項目相關的面積有多少？

Mark, I don't have that at the tip of my fingers. I mean the total acreage covered by our solar agreements is about 130,000 acres. I don't have specifics on these individual projects at my fingertips, but we can follow up with you.

馬克，我的指尖沒有這個。我的意思是我們的太陽能協議覆蓋的總面積約為 130,000 英畝。我不掌握這些單獨項目的具體信息，但我們可以與您聯繫。

Right. And I really was trying to get to, what type of economics might be forthcoming with the projects under development? I don't know if that's something you can speak to off the cuff.

正確的。我真的很想知道，正在開發的專案可能會帶來什麼類型的經濟學？我不知道你是否可以即興談論這件事。

Yes. I mean, I'll tell you, we're intentionally not getting into the economics of these projects, Mark. And the reason is we're out signing up new deals every day, and we're always trying to improve the economics for new deals. And so we're trying to be pretty thoughtful about how much specific information we give on these projects.

是的。我的意思是，我會告訴你，我們故意不討論這些項目的經濟學，馬克。原因是我們每天都在簽署新交易，我們一直在努力提高新交易的經濟效益。因此，我們正在努力認真考​​慮我們提供了多少有關這些項目的具體資訊。

I mean, I think overall, if you kind of step back, we had in the neighborhood of $10 million of EBITDA coming from our renewables program, and that was primarily just the lease payments as people assess these deals and the wind projects.

我的意思是，我認為總的來說，如果你退一步看，我們的可再生能源項目有大約 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA，而這主要只是人們評估這些交易和風電項目時的租賃付款。

We've got 2 new wind projects coming online next year. We've got 3 solar projects that will be online over the next, call it, 1 of them will be online here shortly and the other 2 in the next 6- to 9 months with the whole wave behind that. So I mean, on balance, it's going to pick up over time, and it will become a more material component of our overall NCS business.

我們有兩個新的風電項目將於明年上線。我們有 3 個太陽能專案將在接下來上線，其中 1 個將很快上線，另外 2 個將在未來 6 到 9 個月內上線，整個浪潮將在這之後上線。所以我的意思是，總的來說，它會隨著時間的推移而回升，並將成為我們整個 NCS 業務的更重要的組成部分。

Right. And any color you can give us on maybe the number of contracts that -- or options that are expiring in 2025? And does that heighten the possibility that those start moving forward? Or is that not necessarily the way to think about it in solar specifically?

正確的。您能給我們一些關於 2025 年到期的合約或選擇權數量的顏色嗎？這是否增加了這些項目開始向前發展的可能性？或者這不一定是專門考慮太陽能的方式？

Yes. I mean, in solar, typically, you'll have a few that expire every year, and we replace those in the pipeline. So what you've seen is really over the last several years, the number of new agreements that we're signing and putting in the pipeline, it far exceeds the numbers that are expiring.

是的。我的意思是，在太陽能領域，通常每年都會有一些過期，我們會更換正在準備中的那些。所以你所看到的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們正在簽署和正在醞釀的新協議的數量遠遠超過了即將到期的數量。

And so right now, we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 70, you'll see a few roll off, but we've got a whole bunch of them in the pipeline for new agreements. So I would expect that number to increase over time. So a lot of demand, a lot of activity on the solar side.

所以現在，我們大約有 70 個，你會看到一些下降，但我們已經有一大堆新協議正在醞釀中。所以我預計這個數字會隨著時間的推移而增加。因此，太陽能方面的需求很大，活動也很多。

Right. So it sounds like though that the hit ratio, recognizing your refilling isn't necessarily super high yet in terms of people actually moving forward as the projects are expiring?

正確的。因此，聽起來，雖然專案到期後人們實際繼續前進，但認識到您的補充的命中率不一定很高？

Yes, I wouldn't necessarily characterize it in that way just because these projects typically take 4- to 5 years from the time you sign up an agreement to the time that it ultimately comes to fruition. The industry conversion rates are somewhere around 35% in that general vicinity.

是的，我不一定會這樣描述它，因為這些項目從簽署協議到最終實現通常需要 4 到 5 年的時間。該地區的行業轉換率約為 35%。

I think we're going to be meaningfully higher than that. But certainly, not every agreement that you sign up will result in a solar project coming to fruition. But I think we will be on the high end because we're choosing to coordinate with partners that have a higher success rate and are a little bigger and more sophisticated in general.

我認為我們的水平將會明顯高於這個水平。但當然，並非您簽署的每一份協議都會導致太陽能專案取得成果。但我認為我們將處於高端，因為我們選擇與成功率更高、整體規模更大、更複雜的合作夥伴進行協調。

That's helpful color. And then lastly, just on CCS, any progress on permits. Any update on the time frame for how that might be moving forward?

這是有用的顏色。最後，關於 CCS，許可證方面的任何進展。關於如何推進的時間框架有任何更新嗎？

Yes. I'd say, broadly speaking, with the carbon capture and sequestration the time lines on these are just -- they're shockingly slow. And frankly, the permitting process is just taking a lot longer than anyone had initially expected. So as we think about how this is progressing, I'm thinking at this point, we're probably looking now at delays between 1- to 2 years versus what we had previously thought.

是的。我想說，從廣義上講，碳捕獲和封存的時間線非常慢。坦白說，許可過程所花費的時間比任何人最初預期的都要長得多。因此，當我們考慮進展時，我現在想的是，我們現在可能會看到與我們之前設想的相比延遲 1 到 2 年的情況。

So where we had originally anticipated seeing injections in 25 or 26, that's probably going to be pushed out a bit. We really need to get permitting reform in place to get these projects through the pipeline more quickly. but it is going much slower than we expected.

因此，我們最初預計會在 25 或 26 年內進行注射，但這一時間可能會被推遲一些。我們確實需要進行許可改革，以使這些項目更快通過。但進展比我們預期的要慢得多。

That being said, still I think the opportunity set there is fairly large and ultimately still have a lot of confidence that these things ultimately come to fruition, but just the time line is extended relative to where we had initially thought they would be.

話雖如此，我仍然認為那裡的機會相當大，並且最終仍然對這些事情最終實現充滿信心，但只是時間線相對於我們最初設想的時間有所延長。

Okay. And you mentioned...

好的。還有你提到...

And Mark, I'd just add more broadly speaking across these NCS spaces. I mean, while we have had some expanded time frames in some circumstances, we're really pleased with the overall progress we're making towards that $100 million target by the end of 2025, continuing to work towards that. We may see a little bit more in some of the legacy businesses like mitigation banking and conservation, but really pleased with the longer-term trends here in this space.

馬克，我只是在這些 NCS 空間中添加更廣泛的內容。我的意思是，雖然在某些情況下我們的時間框架有所延長，但我們對到 2025 年底實現 1 億美元目標所取得的整體進展感到非常滿意，並將繼續努力實現這一目標。我們可能會在一些傳統業務（例如緩解銀行業務和保護）中看到更多，但對這個領域的長期趨勢非常滿意。

Great. And you had mentioned you got approval in the 2 additional forest carbon projects. Anything else that sort of we should be thinking about in terms of the details in NCS that are meaningful impactful?

偉大的。您提到您在另外兩個森林碳專案中獲得了批准。就 NCS 中有意義且有影響力的細節而言，我們還應該考慮其他事情嗎？

Yes. I would just say on the forest carbon specifically, I'm really encouraged by the trajectory that we're seeing there. The demand for these projects, the high-quality projects in particular is really seeing a meaningful uptick. And so we've got -- we've got projects, the 3 projects, the main and the 2 in the South that should have approval here shortly.

是的。我只想說，特別是在森林碳方面，我對我們在那裡看到的軌跡感到非常鼓舞。對這些項目，特別是高品質項目的需求確實出現了有意義的成長。所以我們已經有了項目，這 3 個項目，主要項目和南部的 2 個項目應該很快就會在這裡獲得批准。

We've got 3 or 4 that are in the pipeline behind that and then a whole bunch more that are in the earlier stages of development. So we're building out a nice pipeline. It's important to remember that.

我們有 3 或 4 個專案正在醞釀中，還有一大堆專案正處於開發的早期階段。所以我們正在建立一個很好的管道。記住這一點很重要。

Obviously, with each of these projects, there will be an incremental issuance year after year. So like the solar, like the wind, they build. And I think the pricing that we're expecting should be pretty solid. And we're seeing a good level of demand from some high-quality customers. So we're feeling pretty good. And I think next year, you'll see a pretty meaningful uptick in the forest carbon revenues and EBITDA that we'll be generating.

顯然，每個項目都會逐年增量發行。就像太陽能、風一樣，它們也在建造。我認為我們預期的定價應該相當穩定。我們看到一些高品質客戶的需求很高。所以我們感覺很好。我認為明年，您將看到我們將產生的森林碳收入和 EBITDA 顯著增長。

Great. And obviously, it's got magnificent cash conversion. So that's all good, too.

偉大的。顯然，它的現金轉換率很高。所以這也很好。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

馬修·麥凱勒，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

First, what role do you think European lumber in boards play if we see an uptick in lumber demand and pricing in 2025, particularly if European demand remained soft?

首先，如果我們看到 2025 年木材需求和價格上漲，特別是如果歐洲需求仍然疲軟，您認為歐洲木材在板材中扮演什麼角色？

Yes. I mean, I think that's always a variable. You have to take into consideration. We've seen that come down pretty meaningfully here over the last, call it, 18 months. That's largely, I think, a function just of the pricing dynamic that we've seen in the US. If you have continued softness in Europe to the extent that there is a meaningful margin to be achieved, that could see an uptick in European supply.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這始終是一個變數。你必須考慮到。我們已經看到，在過去 18 個月裡，這種情況發生了非常有意義的變化。我認為，這很大程度上是我們在美國看到的定價動態的函數。如果歐洲持續疲軟，達到了可觀的利潤率，那麼歐洲供應量可能會增加。

The one thing, though, I would say is if you look at Europe as a whole, there are a couple of dynamics that will remain in play, first of which is you're certainly not going to see that Russian lumber coming into Europe in the near term. So there's a component of supply that's just going to be gone for the foreseeable future. And then the other dynamic is with all of the salvage activity from the beetle infestation in Central Europe, mean that salvage wood is really dialing back pretty significantly.

不過，我要說的一件事是，如果你把歐洲作為一個整體來看待，有一些動力仍然會發揮作用，首先是你肯定不會看到俄羅斯木材進入歐洲近期。因此，在可預見的未來，供應的一部分將會消失。另一個動態是中歐甲蟲侵擾的所有打撈活動，這意味著打撈木材確實大幅減少。

So it's not as though they're going to have really, really cheap fiber to convert and send over here. So even in an improved pricing environment in the US. I'm not sure you're necessarily going to see the magnitude of European volume coming into the US, that maybe we saw during the pandemic years.

所以他們不會有非常非常便宜的光纖來轉換和發送到這裡。即使在美國定價環境有所改善的情況下也是如此。我不確定你是否一定會看到歐洲進入美國的數量有多大，這也許是我們在疫情期間看到的。

But around the margins, it's certainly possible you could see a pickup there. And we'll see if that's offset by lower volumes coming in from Canada, given the duty situation.

但在邊緣，你肯定有可能看到那裡的皮卡。考慮到關稅情況，我們將看看這是否會被來自加拿大的進口量減少所抵消。

That's helpful. And then just last for me. are you seeing a potential longer-term revenue stream opportunity related to lithium mining as it relates to your land in the US South, maybe around Texas, Arkansas, maybe Louisiana in particular? And if so, how would you have us think about the potential size and time line of those opportunities?

這很有幫助。然後就對我來說最後一次。您是否看到了與鋰礦開採相關的潛在長期收入機會，因為它與您在美國南部（可能是德克薩斯州、阿肯色州，尤其是路易斯安那州）的土地有關？如果是這樣，您會讓我們如何考慮這些機會的潛在規模和時間表？

Yes. I mean I think at this point, the timing and magnitude, it's a little early to quantify that. But -- if you look at where those big lithium deposits are and you overlay that against our land base, I think you can see there's some pretty significant overlap. So we do think that is an opportunity. And I can say, we've had some conversations around that. But beyond that, probably not much else that I think we should share at this point.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在這一點上，無論是時間安排還是規模，現在量化還為時過早。但是，如果你看看那些大型鋰礦藏在哪裡，並將其與我們的陸地基地重疊，我認為你可以看到有一些相當重要的重疊。所以我們確實認為這是一個機會。我可以說，我們已經圍繞著這個問題進行了一些對話。但除此之外，我認為我們此時可能沒有太多可以分享的了。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Devin, maybe to start with on the Engineered Wood side. Can you just help me understand a little better in terms of just the sequential pressure in the engineered wood business given that prices were sort of flat quarter-over-quarter, and I would imagine some modest benefit on the cost side from lower OSP prices. What are the 2 or 3 key challenges in the quarter?

德文（Devin），也許可以從工程木材方面開始。鑑於價格環比持平，您能否幫助我更好地理解工程木材業務的連續壓力，我認為較低的 OSP 價格會在成本方面帶來一些適度的好處。本季的 2 或 3 個主要挑戰是什麼？

Yes. I mean it's really volume. I mean, if you sort of just at a very high level, we rolled into the quarter with certain expectations around what was going to happen in the summer building. So I would say inventories were maybe a little bit above normal, not significant, but a little bit above normal. And then you saw a July housing market that was pretty weak. And so we dialed back our production.

是的。我的意思是它的體積確實很大。我的意思是，如果你處於一個非常高的水平，我們就對夏季建築將要發生的事情抱有一定的期望進入本季度。所以我想說，庫存可能略高於正常水平，雖然不顯著，但略高於正常水平。然後你看到七月份的房地產市場相當疲軟。因此我們減少了生產。

We have a general philosophy that if there's not a market for the wood. You want to be really thoughtful about keeping production levels up and building up significant inventories because you're going to have to move that, which typically comes at a price.

我們有一個普遍的理念：如果木材沒有市場。您需要認真考慮保持生產水準並建立大量庫存，因為您將不得不轉移這些庫存，而這通常是要付出代價的。

So we were thoughtful to matching our production to the demand environment. And obviously, housing picked up as the quarter went on. But as you look about -- look at the quarter-over-quarter impact, it was primarily related to just we lowered our production volume, 19% in solid section, 25% in I-joist over the quarter, which obviously comes with some lost volume, but you also have with the lower volume, you have higher unit costs because you're spreading your fixed costs across a lower volume.

因此，我們深思熟慮地將我們的生產與需求環境相匹配。顯然，隨著本季的持續，房屋市場有所回升。但正如您所看到的那樣，看看季度環比的影響，這主要與我們降低了產量有關，本季度實心型材產量降低了19%，工字托樑產量降低了25%，這顯然帶來了一些影響。

And so really, it comes down to just we produce less volume given the dynamic in the market.

事實上，考慮到市場的動態，我們的產量減少了。

Now as that picks up, we can ramp up production fairly easily to match the demand environment. Obviously, at this point in the year, typically, you see a little bit of a slowdown in building activity as you get into the colder months, and so we're mindful of that.

現在，隨著情況的好轉，我們可以相當輕鬆地提高產量以滿足需求環境。顯然，在一年中的這個時候，隨著進入寒冷的月份，通常會看到建築活動略有放緩，因此我們注意到了這一點。

But as we think about 2025 and what we think is going to happen with housing in the spring building season, I would fully expect that business to be back on track and reflect kind of what you've seen in prior years.

但當我們考慮 2025 年以及我們認為春季建築季節的住房將會發生什麼時，我完全預計該業務將重回正軌並反映您在前幾年所看到的情況。

Got it. That's helpful. And then very quickly, what were your operating rates in either lumber and OSB in Q3?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後很快，第三季您的木材和定向刨花板的開工率是多少？

Yes. So in lumber, you were talking somewhere in the mid- to high 70s in OSB, high 80s and EWP kind of mid-60s.

是的。所以在木材方面，你所說的 OSB 是 70 年代中高，80 年代高，EWP 是 60 年代中期。

Got it. Okay. And then just one last one for me. Devin, anything going on in terms of log exports out of US South at this point. Is there anything happening on that front?

知道了。好的。然後是我的最後一件事。Devin，目前美國南部原木出口方面發生了什麼情況。這方面有什麼事情發生嗎？

It is. Yes. As a matter of fact, we're excited about some of the opportunities. I mean it's still -- for context, relatively small compared to the overall harvest volumes. But the silver lining with what's happened with China, and obviously, we would like that China market to open up again at some point.

這是。是的。事實上，我們對其中一些機會感到興奮。我的意思是，就上下文而言，與總收穫量相比，它仍然相對較小。但中國發生的事情帶來了一線希望，顯然，我們希望中國市場在某個時候再次開放。

But the silver lining with the challenges that we've seen there is it's given us the time and latitude to really focus on some other market opportunities. And so we've been growing our export business into India. I think there is a lot more demand for our logs in India, and we're able to ship currently.

但我們所看到的挑戰帶來的一線希望是，它給了我們時間和自由來真正關注其他一些市場機會。因此，我們一直在發展對印度的出口業務。我認為印度對我們的原木的需求更大，我們目前能夠發貨。

And so we're looking at building out additional export facilities in the US South to serve that market. We are growing our volumes into Vietnam. We've come across some really interesting customers there that value the high-quality logs that we can send out of the South. So we're looking at that as well.

因此，我們正在考慮在美國南部建立更多的出口設施來服務該市場。我們正在增加越南的產量。我們在那裡遇到了一些非常有趣的客戶，他們看重我們可以從南方運出的高品質原木。所以我們也在考慮這一點。

And I think there are a host of other opportunities in Turkey, in Pakistan and some other markets as well. And so that's a focus area for us. And certainly, at some point, we still believe that the China opportunity will come back.

我認為土耳其、巴基斯坦和其他一些市場還有很多其他機會。所以這是我們的重點領域。當然，在某個時候，我們仍然相信中國的機會將會回來。

And so we're focused on that. It's something, I think, with our supply chain expertise and our low-cost business. It's a market that we can serve from our US holdings in the South. And so we're pretty excited about how that's going to grow over time.

所以我們專注於此。我認為，這與我們的供應鏈專業知識和低成本業務有關。我們可以利用我們在南方的美國資產來服務這個市場。因此，我們對隨著時間的推移將如何增長感到非常興奮。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·羅克克蘭 (Michael Roxland)，Truist 證券公司。

This is [Nick Battier] on for Mike. Maybe just 1 follow-up to the EWP operating rate question. I thought I heard mid-60s. I guess just going forward into 4Q in light of seasonally low demand and maybe matching your production to that demand. Do you expect that to stay the same or seasonally maybe to go lower? And then before we entered the spring season next year. Is that kind of the rate we're looking at kind of maybe uptick in 1Q?

這是麥克的[尼克·巴蒂爾]。也許只是 EWP 開工率問題的 1 個後續行動。我以為我聽到了60年代中期的聲音。我想，鑑於季節性需求較低，進入第四季度，也許您的生產將與該需求相符。您預計這一數字會保持不變還是季節性下降？然後在我們進入明年春季之前。我們看到的這種速度在第一季可能會上升嗎？

Yes. I mean I think as we think about Q4, it's going to be up slightly. But as we think about the posture as we roll into next year, I think that would be more typical of what you see for us in Q1 normally. So -- and to some extent, you're going to see -- in normal years, you're going to see the Q4 volumes come down just a little bit given the dynamic at play and seasonality. But I would expect that to ramp back up in Q1 for our normal operating posture.

是的。我的意思是，我認為當我們考慮第四季度時，它會略有上升。但當我們考慮明年的情況時，我認為這將是您在第一季看到的更典型的情況。因此，在某種程度上，你會看到，在正常年份，考慮到動態和季節性，你會看到第四季度的銷量略有下降。但我預計這一數字將在第一季回升，以達到我們正常的營運態勢。

Got it. And then just that normal operating in 1Q, like 70s? Or where we think?

知道了。然後在第一季就正常運行，就像 70 年代一樣？或者我們認為在哪裡？

Yes. I mean in EWP, I think ordinarily, you'd see high 70s, low 80s would be a good way to think about that under normal conditions.

是的。我的意思是，在 EWP 中，我認為通常情況下，您會看到高 70 秒，低 80 秒是在正常條件下考慮這一點的好方法。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把發言權轉回德文·斯托克菲什（Devin Stockfish）以徵求結束意見。

All right. Terrific. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. And thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a great day.

好的。了不起。好的，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。感謝您對惠好公司的持續關注。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。