Wolverine World Wide Inc (WWW) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Wolverine World Wide's Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Wolverine World Wide 2019 年第三季度財報電話會議。此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講之後將舉行問答環節。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Mr. Paul Feyen. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給主持人 Paul Feyen 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning and welcome to our third quarter 2019 conference call. On the call today are Blake Krueger, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we announced our financial results for the third quarter 2019. The release is available on many news sites or it can be viewed from our corporate website at wolverineworldwide.com. If you would prefer to have a copy of the news release sent to you directly, please call Francesca Filandro at 646-677-1814.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2019 年第三季度電話會議。今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、首席執行官兼總裁 Blake Krueger；以及我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mike Stornant。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2019 年第三季度的財務業績。該新聞稿可在許多新聞網站上找到，也可以從我們的公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。如果您希望直接向您發送新聞稿副本，請致電 Francesca Filandro，電話：646-677-1814。

This morning's press release included non-GAAP disclosures and these disclosures were reconciled with attached tables within the body of the release. Comments during today's earnings call will include some additional non-GAAP disclosures. There is a document posted on our corporate website titled WWW Q3 2019 Conference Call Supplemental Tables that will reconcile these non-GAAP disclosures to GAAP. The document is accessible under the Investor Relations tab at our corporate website wolverineworldwide.com by clicking on the webcast link at the top of the page.

今天上午的新聞稿包括非公認會計原則披露，這些披露與新聞稿正文中的附表進行了核對。今天的財報電話會議上的評論將包括一些額外的非公認會計原則披露。我們的公司網站上發布了一份名為 WWW Q3 2019 電話會議補充表的文件，該文件將使這些非 GAAP 披露與 GAAP 保持一致。通過單擊頁面頂部的網絡廣播鏈接，可以在我們公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 的“投資者關係”選項卡下訪問該文件。

During our call, we are providing adjusted financial results, which adjust for the impacts of environmental and related costs, business development-related expenses, re-organization costs and foreign exchange rate changes. I'd also like to remind you that predictions and projections made during today's conference call regarding Wolverine World Wide and its operations are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities laws. As a result, we must caution you that as with any prediction or projection, there are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These important risk factors are identified in the Company's SEC filings and in our press releases.

在我們的電話會議中，我們提供了調整後的財務業績，該業績根據環境和相關成本、業務發展相關費用、重組成本和外匯匯率變化的影響進行了調整。我還想提醒您，今天的電話會議中有關 Wolverine World Wide 及其運營的預測和預測屬於美國證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。因此，我們必須提醒您，與任何預測或預測一樣，有許多因素可能導致實際結果存在重大差異。這些重要的風險因素已在公司向 SEC 提交的文件和我們的新聞稿中確定。

With that being said, I'd like to turn the call over to Blake Krueger.

話雖如此，我想把電話轉給布萊克·克魯格。

Thanks, Paul. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we reported revenue growth of nearly 4% on a constant currency basis, which marks our highest quarterly growth rate of the year. This growth was driven by Merrell, Sperry and Saucony, our 3 largest brands, who on a combined basis delivered over 11% constant currency growth. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, a 10% increase over the last year was very strong despite a much higher tax rate in the current year record. Record third quarter gross margin and disciplined approach to managing the business drove adjusted operating margin expansion of 150 basis points. We're extremely pleased with these results, which reflect the strength of our brand portfolio, excellent global execution by our teams, solid progress against our global growth agenda and the implementation of our brand growth model.

謝謝，保羅。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天早上早些時候，我們報告按固定匯率計算收入增長近 4%，這是我們今年最高的季度增長率。這一增長是由我們的 3 個最大品牌 Merrell、Sperry 和 Saucony 推動的，這些品牌合計實現了超過 11% 的恆定貨幣增長。調整後每股收益為 0.68 美元，比去年增長 10%，儘管今年的稅率遠高於歷史記錄，但增長非常強勁。第三季度毛利率創紀錄，加上嚴格的業務管理方法，推動調整後營業利潤率增長 150 個基點。我們對這些結果感到非常滿意，這反映了我們品牌組合的實力、我們團隊出色的全球執行力、我們全球增長議程的紮實進展以及我們品牌增長模式的實施。

For today's call, I'll provide some additional detail on the results for our branded group and key brands as well as an update on our global growth agenda. Mike Stornant will then provide additional details on the third quarter financial results and our updated outlook for the remainder of 2019, starting with the Wolverine Michigan Group. Revenue declined 2.7% compared to the prior year and 1.9% on a constant currency basis. Merrell grew high single digits in the quarter. We also saw gains in Harley-Davidson and HyTest. Due entirely to the timing of some international shipments, Cat was down high teens, but is expected to show robust growth in the fourth quarter and double-digit growth for the full year.

在今天的電話會議中，我將提供有關我們品牌集團和主要品牌業績的更多詳細信息，以及我們全球增長議程的最新信息。隨後，Mike Stornant 將提供有關第三季度財務業績的更多詳細信息以及我們對 2019 年剩餘時間的最新展望，首先是 Wolverine 密歇根集團。收入較上年下降 2.7%，按固定匯率計算下降 1.9%。梅雷爾在本季度實現了高個位數增長。我們還看到了哈雷戴維森和 HyTest 的增長。完全由於一些國際發貨的時間安排，Cat 的銷量下降了兩位數，但預計第四季度將呈現強勁增長，全年將實現兩位數增長。

A flattish quarter from Wolverine and declines from some of the remaining smaller brands led to the group's overall revenue performance in the quarter, starting with the Merrell brands. Strong quarterly results were led by the EMEA, Canada and U.S. regions, where wholesale, e-commerce and retail store channels all saw year-over-year gains. Growth came from all product categories led by exceptionally strong performance in Nature's Gym, the brand's most athletic expression including positive consumer reaction to new progressive trail running style: the Nova and Antora collection.

Wolverine 的季度表現平淡，加上其他一些較小品牌的下滑，導致該集團本季度的整體收入表現不佳，首先是 Merrell 品牌。歐洲、中東和非洲、加拿大和美國地區的季度業績表現強勁，這些地區的批發、電子商務和零售商店渠道均實現了同比增長。增長來自於所有產品類別，其中以 Nature's Gym 的異常強勁表現為主導，Nature's Gym 是該品牌最具運動性的體現，包括消費者對新的漸進式越野跑風格的積極反應：Nova 和 Antora 系列。

The brand's important hike and lifestyle categories also saw gains, largely driven by seasonal boot offering along with very strong growth in work and tactical. The brand continues to drive heat through exciting product collaboration. The recently introduced partnerships with Dogfish Head Brewery, Stormy Kromer, Outdoor Voices and Duluth Pack have all received a great consumer reaction.

該品牌重要的遠足和生活方式類別也取得了增長，這主要是由於季節性靴子產品以及工作和戰術方面的強勁增長推動的。該品牌繼續通過令人興奮的產品合作來推動熱度。最近與 Dogfish Head Brewery、Stormy Kromer、Outdoor Voices 和 Duluth Pack 建立的合作夥伴關係均獲得了消費者的熱烈反響。

These collaborations have also been a key driver of organic traffic and strong sell-throughs at merrell.com, which delivered almost 20% growth in the quarter. The momentum for Merrell is expected to continue with high single-digit constant currency growth in Q4. Cat's decline in the quarter was due to the timing of some international orders. The brand's owned e-commerce business grew over 30%.

這些合作也是 merrell.com 有機流量和強勁銷售的關鍵驅動力，該網站在本季度實現了近 20% 的增長。預計 Merrell 的勢頭將在第四季度繼續保持高個位數的恆定貨幣增長。Cat 本季度的下滑是由於一些國際訂單的時間安排造成的。該品牌自有電商業務增長超過30%。

Cat also launched the CODE collection, the brand's largest product launch ever selling out on catfootwear.com doubling our expected immediate conversion and driving increased global sell-through. We expect Cat to return to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. The Wolverine brands results were mixed in the quarter with nearly 10% growth in e-commerce and growth in the work safety category, largely offset by incremental store closures by a key U.S. retail customer.

Cat 還推出了 CODE 系列，這是該品牌有史以來最大規模的產品發布，在 catfootwear.com 上售罄，使我們預期的即時轉化率翻了一番，並推動了全球銷量的增長。我們預計 Cat 在第四季度將恢復兩位數增長。Wolverine 品牌本季度的業績好壞參半，電子商務和工作安全類別的增長接近 10%，但在很大程度上被美國主要零售客戶不斷關閉的商店所抵消。

Moving to the Wolverine Boston Group; revenue for the Boston Group was up a healthy 12.4% compared to the prior year and 13.3% on a constant currency basis as all 4 brands in the group delivered strong Q3 revenue growth. Sperry made the season shift to fall product and delivered low teens growth and Saucony exceeded expectations for the third straight quarter by delivering mid-teens growth. The kids group delivered high teens growth and Keds grew at a low single digit pace.

轉至Wolverine Boston Group；波士頓集團的收入較上年同期健康增長 12.4%，按固定匯率計算增長 13.3%，因為該集團的所有 4 個品牌第三季度收入均實現強勁增長。Sperry 將季節轉向秋季產品，並實現了青少年的低增長，而索康尼則連續第三個季度實現了青少年中的增長，超出了預期。兒童系列的青少年增長速度較高，而 Keds 的增長速度較低，個位數。

Sperry delivered its highest quarterly growth of the year, driven by increases across all regions. This performance was fueled by the brands expanded product offerings and diversified boot styles, which gains significant market share in the quarter. The brands vulcanized category also saw attractive growth. The Sperry e-commerce business was up over 20% in Q3 primarily driven by increased traffic as the brand continues to invest in this important channel. Sperry stores drove over 20% growth with both new stores and improved conversion contributing to the Q3 increase.

在所有地區增長的推動下，斯佩里實現了今年最高的季度增長。這一業績得益於該品牌擴大的產品範圍和多樣化的靴子款式，在本季度獲得了顯著的市場份額。品牌硫化品類也出現了引人注目的增長。Sperry 電子商務業務在第三季度增長了 20% 以上，主要是由於該品牌繼續投資這一重要渠道，導致流量增加。Sperry 商店的增長超過 20%，新店和轉化率的提高推動了第三季度的增長。

We're pleased with the momentum in the Sperry business and we expect attractive double-digit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by a strong boot offering and a favorable inventory position to support this growth. Saucony continues to experience improving top-line trends and again exceeded growth expectations for the third quarter. The brand continues to benefit from excellent e-commerce performance with growth of 30% in the quarter and over 40% year-to-date. Europe was strong and the brands' U.S. wholesale business experienced growing demand for key performance styles, helping to drive mid-teens at once growth in the quarter.

我們對 Sperry 業務的發展勢頭感到滿意，並預計第四季度將實現有吸引力的兩位數增長，這得益於強勁的靴子產品和有利的庫存狀況來支持這一增長。索康尼的營收趨勢繼續改善，第三季度的增長再次超出預期。該品牌繼續受益於出色的電子商務業績，本季度增長 30%，今年迄今增長超過 40%。歐洲表現強勁，該品牌的美國批發業務對關鍵功能款式的需求不斷增長，有助於推動本季度的增長。

E-commerce and wholesale channels benefited from the brands digital-direct offense including social media partnerships and a steady stream of new product. Year-to-date, Saucony has received over 20 industry awards across a number of new product platforms in the road and trail running product categories. We're encouraged by the momentum in Saucony's business and the pipeline of new performance in lifestyle products plan for 2020. The kids group delivered high teens growth in Q3 led by increases in the U.S. market from nearly all children's brands with owned e-commerce expanding over 40%.

電子商務和批發渠道受益於品牌的數字直接進攻，包括社交媒體合作夥伴關係和源源不斷的新產品。今年迄今為止，索康尼在公路和越野跑產品類別的多個新產品平台上已獲得 20 多個行業獎項。我們對 Saucony 的業務勢頭以及 2020 年生活方式產品計劃中的新表現感到鼓舞。在美國市場的增長帶動下，兒童集團在第三季度實現了青少年的高速增長，幾乎所有自有電子商務的兒童品牌都增長了 40% 以上。

At an enterprise level, let me provide a quick update on our global growth agenda, where we continue to make important investments to create a faster and more innovative product creation engine, drive our digital direct offense and expand our international business. Third quarter investments against these initiatives totaled approximately $10 million and we expect to invest approximately $38 million for the full year. The targeted investments in our owned e-commerce business had delivered strong top-line growth of over 20% across the brand portfolio in 2019 along with a meaningful improvement in operating margin.

在企業層面，讓我快速介紹一下我們的全球增長議程，我們將繼續進行重要投資，以創建更快、更具創新性的產品創造引擎，推動我們的數字直接進攻並擴大我們的國際業務。第三季度針對這些舉措的投資總額約為 1000 萬美元，我們預計全年投資約 3800 萬美元。對自有電子商務業務的針對性投資使整個品牌組合在 2019 年實現了超過 20% 的強勁營收增長，同時營業利潤率也顯著提高。

In addition, capital investments related to new stores and the acquisition of a distributor business in Europe and investment in our China joint venture are still expected to total approximately $40 million this year.

此外，今年與新店、收購歐洲分銷商業務以及對中國合資企業的投資相關的資本投資預計仍將達到約 4000 萬美元。

Now let me provide some information on the recently enacted tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. For several years our sourcing strategy is focused on moving China production to other regions of the world. These efforts have positioned us extremely well to mitigate long-term exposure. We expect overall imports into the U.S. from China to decrease by an additional 50% in 2020, and continue to decrease at that rate in 2021 as we execute our sourcing strategy. We do expect some impact from the new tariffs this year, including approximately $3 million, an additional cost in Q4.

現在讓我提供一些有關最近對美國進口中國產品徵收關稅的信息。多年來，我們的採購戰略重點是將中國生產轉移到世界其他地區。這些努力使我們能夠非常好地減輕長期風險。我們預計，隨著我們執行採購戰略，2020 年美國從中國的進口總量將再減少 50%，並在 2021 年繼續以這一速度下降。我們確實預計今年新關稅會產生一些影響，包括第四季度約 300 萬美元的額外成本。

For 2020, we continue to develop our mitigation strategy to offset these new costs and expect to neutralize the future impact through negotiated product cost reductions, some wholesale price increases, new product introductions, and further supply chain improvements. We're obviously pleased with our performance in the third quarter and the growth of our largest brands. Our diversified business model is resilient and is gaining momentum despite some of the macro uncertainties created by FX, tariffs, geopolitical events and global economic conditions. The U.S. consumer remains relatively strong and we've seen a significant uptick at retail in October, including our own stores and e-commerce businesses.

2020 年，我們將繼續制定緩解策略來抵消這些新成本，並期望通過協商降低產品成本、提高部分批發價格、推出新產品以及進一步改進供應鏈來抵消未來的影響。我們顯然對第三季度的業績和最大品牌的增長感到滿意。儘管外匯、關稅、地緣政治事件和全球經濟狀況造成了一些宏觀不確定性，但我們的多元化業務模式具有彈性，並且正在獲得動力。美國消費者仍然相對強勁，我們看到 10 月份零售業大幅增長，包括我們自己的商店和電子商務業務。

Well, we still have some of the most important weeks of the year in front of us. Our largest brands continue to deliver growth and we expect high-single digit constant currency growth for Merrell, Sperry and Saucony on a combined basis in Q4.

好吧，我們仍然面臨著一年中最重要的幾週。我們最大的品牌將繼續實現增長，我們預計第四季度 Merrell、Sperry 和 Saucony 的綜合匯率將實現高個位數的恆定貨幣增長。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer who will provide additional commentary on our third quarter financial performance along with an updated outlook for Q4 and the full year. Mike?

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官邁克·斯托南特（Mike Stornant），他將對我們第三季度的財務業績提供更多評論，並更新第四季度和全年的展望。麥克風？

Thanks Blake, and thank you all for joining us today. During the third quarter, we delivered revenue of $574.3 million resulting in growth of 2.8% or 3.6% on a constant currency basis. This growth was led by our 3 largest brands, Merrill Sperry and Saucony on a combined basis delivered constant currency growth of 11.5%. The companies owned direct to consumer businesses were also strong achieving mid-teens growth driven by both e-commerce and stores. Our e-commerce growth exceeded 20% year-to-date as we focus our efforts on customer retention, this business is becoming more efficient leading to operating margin expansion of nearly 300 basis points in Q3.

謝謝布萊克，也感謝大家今天加入我們。第三季度，我們實現收入 5.743 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長 2.8% 或 3.6%。這一增長由我們的 3 個最大品牌 Merrill Sperry 和 Saucony 引領，合計實現了 11.5% 的恆定匯率增長。在電子商務和商店的推動下，直接面向消費者業務的公司也表現強勁，實現了十幾歲左右的增長。今年迄今為止，我們的電子商務增長超過 20%，因為我們專注於保留客戶，該業務變得更加高效，導致第三季度的營業利潤率擴大了近 300 個基點。

We delivered record Q3 gross margin of 42.4% which was up 80 basis points from the prior year and better than expected. Gross margin benefited from favorable product mix within our global wholesale business, including an increase in higher margin boot sales. The impact of our European Saucony business and strong growth within our higher margin DTC businesses, this was partially offset by slightly higher closeout sales and a shift in business model related to some of our international distributors.

第三季度毛利率創歷史新高，達到 42.4%，比上年增長 80 個基點，好於預期。毛利率受益於我們全球批發業務中有利的產品組合，包括利潤率較高的靴子銷售的增長。我們的歐洲索康尼業務和我們利潤率較高的 DTC 業務的強勁增長的影響，部分被清倉銷售額的略微增加和與我們的一些國際分銷商相關的業務模式的轉變所抵消。

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses of $162.8 million were slightly lower than expected and down approximately 60 basis points as a percentage of revenue due to our solid revenue increase, disciplined discretionary spending and lower year-over-year incentive compensation costs. As a result of these factors adjusted operating margin of 14.1% expanded 150 basis points over the prior year and it was the highest quarterly operating margin rate since 2011. The third quarter reported effective tax rate came in at a more normalized rate of 20.3% versus 7.8% in the prior year. The prior year effective tax rate benefited primarily from the favorable impact of $40 million of voluntary pension contributions.

調整後的銷售、一般和管理費用為1.628 億美元，略低於預期，佔收入的比例下降了約60 個基點，原因是我們的收入穩健增長、嚴格的可自由支配支出以及同比激勵薪酬成本的降低。由於這些因素，調整後的營業利潤率為 14.1%，比上一年擴大了 150 個基點，這是自 2011 年以來最高的季度營業利潤率。第三季度的有效稅率更為正常，為 20.3%，而去年同期為 7.8%。上一年的有效稅率主要受益於 4000 萬美元自願養老金繳款的有利影響。

Third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.68 exceeded our expectations and was an all-time record for the company. Reported earnings per share were $0.57 and included the impact of environmental related costs as well as certain severance and other costs. During the quarter the Board approved a new $400 million share repurchase program incremental to the program approved earlier in the year. In Q3 we repurchased $107 million of our stock at an average price of $25.13 per share, bringing our year-to-date total to $314 million.

第三季度調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.68 美元，超出了我們的預期，創下了該公司的歷史記錄。報告的每股收益為 0.57 美元，其中包括環境相關成本以及某些遣散費和其他成本的影響。本季度，董事會批准了一項新的 4 億美元股票回購計劃，該計劃是對今年早些時候批准的計劃的增量。第三季度，我們以每股 25.13 美元的平均價格回購了 1.07 億美元的股票，使年初至今的總額達到 3.14 億美元。

We have approximately $513 million still available under existing repurchase authorization. As discussed in previous quarters, we took a stronger inventory position in the first 3 quarters of this year. This was in response to very lean levels for much of 2018 and the need to mitigate the cost of new tariffs implemented late in the year. Total inventory at the end of the third quarter increased 28.8% over the prior year, which is slightly better than our expectations and includes approximately $8 million from new stores and our Saucony Europe business.

根據現有的回購授權，我們仍有約 5.13 億美元可用。正如前幾個季度所討論的，我們在今年前三個季度採取了更強的庫存立場。這是為了應對 2018 年大部分時間的非常低的水平，以及降低今年晚些時候實施的新關稅成本的需要。第三季度末的總庫存比上年同期增長 28.8%，略好於我們的預期，其中包括來自新店和索康尼歐洲業務的約 800 萬美元。

We expect inventory to further moderate to more normalized levels by the end of Q4 with a year-over-year increase of 5% to 10% projected at year-end, including approximately $8 million for new stores in Saucony Europe. We ended the quarter with net debt of $809 million, which increased versus last year, mostly due to our opportunistic share repurchases, $35 million of strategic capital investments including Saucony Europe joint ventures, new stores and investment in core inventory ahead of tariffs. We ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 2.48 times, which is comfortably within our targeted range. We finished the quarter with approximately $1.1 billion of total liquidity, providing considerable flexibility to drive long-term shareholder return.

我們預計，到第四季度末，庫存將進一步降至更正常的水平，預計年底將同比增長 5% 至 10%，其中包括索康尼歐洲新店的約 800 萬美元。本季度末，我們的淨債務為8.09 億美元，較去年有所增加，這主要是由於我們的機會主義股票回購、3500 萬美元的戰略資本投資（包括索康尼歐洲合資企業、新店以及關稅前對核心庫存的投資）。本季度結束時，我們的槓桿率為 2.48 倍，完全在我們的目標範圍內。本季度結束時，我們的流動性總額約為 11 億美元，為推動長期股東回報提供了相當大的靈活性。

Now let me cover our outlook for the remainder of 2019. Our full year revenue outlook remains unchanged at $2.28 billion or constant currency growth of approximately 3%. For the full year we are expecting gross margin of approximately 41%, adjusted operating margin of approximately 12%, and an effective tax rate of approximately 19%. Diluted weighted average shares outstanding are now projected to be approximately 86.4 million shares for the full year based on repurchases executed throughout the year.

現在讓我談談我們對 2019 年剩餘時間的展望。我們的全年收入預期保持在 22.8 億美元不變，即按匯率恆定增長約 3%。我們預計全年毛利率約為 41%，調整後營業利潤率約為 12%，有效稅率約為 19%。根據全年執行的回購，全年稀釋加權平均流通股預計約為 8640 萬股。

The projected adjusted earnings per share of $2.25 now reflect $0.03 related to new tariff costs. Reported diluted earnings per share are expected to be approximately $1.96. Fourth quarter revenue is expected to be approximately $615 million representing nearly 7% constant currency growth. We expect the momentum for Merrell, Sperry and Saucony to continue in the fourth quarter with projected constant currency growth on a combined basis of approximately 9%.

預計調整後每股收益為 2.25 美元，目前反映了與新關稅成本相關的 0.03 美元。報告的攤薄每股收益預計約為 1.96 美元。第四季度收入預計約為 6.15 億美元，按恆定匯率計算增長近 7%。我們預計 Merrell、Sperry 和 Saucony 的勢頭將在第四季度繼續，預計貨幣增長率合計約為 9%。

The outlook for our U.S. wholesale and direct-to-consumer businesses remain strong. We do see some additional risk with one-key core customer in the U.S. and a few discreet headwinds in our international business including incremental FX translation risk, some potential factor delays on spring product as we accelerate the migration out of China, and continuing political unrest in Chile and Argentina.

我們的美國批發和直接面向消費者業務的前景依然強勁。我們確實看到了美國一鍵核心客戶的一些額外風險，以及我們國際業務中的一些謹慎阻力，包括增量外匯換算風險、隨著我們加速遷出中國，春季產品的一些潛在因素延遲，以及持續的政治動盪在智利和阿根廷。

Gross margin in Q4 is expected to be approximately 39.5%, a slight decrease from the prior expectation due mostly to approximately 50 basis points negative impact of new tariff costs not previously included in our outlook. Fourth quarter adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 11.5%, 80 basis points better than last year but down slightly from our previous outlook due to the additional tariff and a shift in certain operating costs between Q3 and Q4. The tax rate for the quarter is now expected to be 20% and the share count is now expected to be 81.6 million shares. Our adjusted earnings per share outlook of $0.59 reflects a $0.03 impact from new tariff costs and a $0.05 timing shift between Q3 and Q4.

第四季度毛利率預計約為 39.5%，較之前預期略有下降，主要是由於之前未納入我們展望的新關稅成本帶來約 50 個基點的負面影響。第四季度調整後營業利潤率預計約為 11.5%，比去年好 80 個基點，但由於額外關稅以及第三季度和第四季度之間某些運營成本的變化，略低於我們之前的預期。目前預計本季度稅率為 20%，股票數量預計為 8160 萬股。我們調整後的每股收益預期為 0.59 美元，反映出新關稅成本帶來的 0.03 美元的影響以及第三季度和第四季度之間 0.05 美元的時間變化。

In closing, I want to emphasize that growth continues to be our primary focus. The progress we are seeing from our largest brands and our DTC platform is evidenced that the brand growth model is working. We will remain disciplined in managing operating costs and working capital to leverage revenue growth and deliver strong future cash flow.

最後，我想強調，增長仍然是我們的首要關注點。我們從最大的品牌和 DTC 平台上看到的進展證明品牌增長模式正在發揮作用。我們將繼續嚴格管理運營成本和營運資金，以促進收入增長並提供強勁的未來現金流。

Thanks for your time this morning, and we will now turn the call back over to the operator.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間，我們現在將把電話轉回給接線員。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes to the line of Matthew DeGulis with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

謝謝。（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題涉及 Matthew DeGulis 與 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的關係。

It seems like you met and exceeded your third quarter guidance, but can you talk about if there are any surprises, positive or negative in the quarter, either by brand or channel? And can you also comment on the composition of inventory heading into holiday?

看來您達到並超出了第三季度的指導，但您能否談談該季度是否有任何驚喜，無論是按品牌還是渠道劃分，無論是積極的還是消極的？您能否評論一下假期前的庫存構成？

Yes. This is Blake. I'll take the first one. No real surprises in Q3. Obviously September was exceedingly warm here in the U.S. We think that did have an impact on the retail market in general. That's obviously changed. I'm looking out my window right now. Our pond is half frozen and we have 2 or 3 inches of fresh snow on the ground here in Michigan. But other than that maybe the only -- not a surprise, but continuing issues, it has been the global volatility, whether it's geopolitical risks in some region, whether it's tariffs, whether it's been increasing strength of the U.S. dollar, whether it's Brexit, whether it's some economic retail consumer situations in a few countries like South Korea. Maybe was there really a surprise, but that's sort of volatility on an international basis continued.

是的。這是布萊克。我就拿第一個。第三季度沒有真正的驚喜。顯然，美國九月非常溫暖。我們認為這確實對整個零售市場產生了影響。這顯然已經改變了。我現在正看著窗外。我們的池塘半凍​​了，密歇根州的地面上有 2 或 3 英寸厚的新雪。但除此之外，也許是唯一的——這並不令人意外，而是持續存在的問題，那就是全球波動，是否是某些地區的地緣政治風險，是否是關稅，是否是美元走強，是否是英國脫歐，無論是韓國等少數國家的一些經濟零售消費情況。也許確實令人驚訝，但國際範圍內的波動仍在繼續。

I'd add to the -- to that in terms of both your first and second question, I think on the inventory side, that volatility in the U.S. was reflected in inconsistent at once. But as we talked about last time, we expected some of that; we factored that into our outlook for the quarter and for Q4 as well. We continued to see that. I think a lot of it at the end of September, early October was driven by weather as Blake mentioned. But we managed to do that with our retail partners. I think our inventory positions continue to strengthen or improve at retail just given the, the better weather conditions and just some stronger holiday traffic that we're seeing across the business. So I think inventories today are better than they were when we started the quarter and appear to be continuing to improve week-by-week.

我想補充一下，就你的第一個問題和第二個問題而言，我認為在庫存方面，美國的波動性立即體現為不一致。但正如我們上次談到的，我們對此有所預料；我們也將這一點納入了對本季度和第四季度的展望中。我們繼續看到這一點。正如布萊克提到的，我認為九月底、十月初的大部分時間都是由天氣驅動的。但我們與零售合作夥伴成功做到了這一點。我認為，鑑於天氣條件更好以及我們在整個業務中看到的假日客流量增加，我們的零售庫存狀況繼續加強或改善。因此，我認為今天的庫存比本季度開始時要好，並且似乎每週都在繼續改善。

Maybe, maybe the only other, a bit of a surprise was how strong our boot business was in Q3. I know a number of other companies that struggled given the weather situation, but our boot sales, whether Merrell work in tactical or Wolverine brand work in safety or Sperry were pretty good and continue to take market share.

也許，也許唯一令人驚訝的是我們的靴子業務在第三季度的強勁表現。我知道許多其他公司在天氣情況下陷入困境，但我們的靴子銷售，無論是 Merrell 的戰術工作還是 Wolverine 品牌的安全工作或 Sperry 都相當不錯，並繼續佔據市場份額。

And one follow-up, if I could. Can you talk about the -- like what capabilities having a Chief Merchant Officer bring to the company? And I just want to understand, I guess, how this changes things, what's his role mostly handled that the brand level before and now it's being centralized?

如果可以的話，還有一個後續行動。您能談談首席商務官給公司帶來什麼能力嗎？我只是想了解，我想，這會如何改變事情，他的角色主要負責處理品牌層面以前和現在的集中化？

Not at all. The brands are still fundamentally responsible for trend, wide space, thinking, design, growing their brands, but in today's world you cannot have enough merchant commercial -- merchant experience. So Angelo joined us. Obviously he has 25 years of experience in fashion and apparel with Levi's, Dockers and Europe, America, Asia, Nike and Europe. And his main job is to make sure we have kind of a continuous flow of on-trend craveable product. That's also the brands primary responsibility that that has not been centralized. I would think of Angelo's function, think of it is being additive to the efforts of the brand and a partner with our brands. So we believe it's a critical function to shape the future. He's also going to be in-charge of our consumer insights, market intelligence group, trend, advanced concepts and he has already taken on a few special projects like the Saucony lifestyle business for the world, maximizing that opportunity.

一點也不。品牌仍然對趨勢、廣闊的空間、思維、設計、品牌發展負有根本責任，但在當今世界，你不可能擁有足夠的商業經驗。於是安傑洛加入了我們。顯然他在Levi's、Dockers以及歐洲、美洲、亞洲、耐克和歐洲擁有25年的時尚和服裝經驗。他的主要工作是確保我們擁有源源不斷的流行趨勢產品。這也是品牌的主要責任尚未集中。我會想到 Angelo 的功能，認為它是品牌努力的補充，也是我們品牌的合作夥伴。因此，我們相信這是塑造未來的關鍵職能。他還將負責我們的消費者洞察、市場情報小組、趨勢、先進概念，並且他已經承擔了一些特殊項目，例如索康尼的全球生活方式業務，以最大限度地利用這一機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Pivotal Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pivotal Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

I guess I got a few fairly quick. First, I was hoping you quantify a couple things for me. First on Saucony, the incremental revenue impact of the European acquisition, how much does that was in Q3 and then also the benefit you receive in Q4. And then can you talk a little bit about the Cat timing? It sounds like there was some delivery timing there that hurt the quarter. So if you can quantify that and is that just -- then a benefit to Q4?

我想我很快就得到了一些。首先，我希望你為我量化一些事情。首先是索康尼，歐洲收購對增量收入的影響，第三季度的影響有多大，然後是第四季度的收益。然後你能談談貓的時機嗎？聽起來好像有一些交貨時間影響了這個季度。那麼，如果你可以量化這一點，那麼這對第四季度有好處嗎？

Yes. Let me first talk about Saucony. The Saucony Europe, the business that we really integrated at a fast pace did have a beneficial impact. On Q3 for Saucony, I'm trying to remember, I think it was in the $12 million to $14 million range. At the same time, the Saucony's inventory's extremely tight right now. Lean and their closeout sales were less than half of the prior year. So when you factor both of those together Saucony on its organic business probably was about flat in the quarter. One of the things that we especially like about Saucony's continuing momentum is the at-once trend, as you know Q1 and Q3 tend to be a little bit more future order driven, but the Saucony at-once trend on their performance product was up mid-to-high teens in the quarter.

是的。先說索康尼。我們真正快速整合的索康尼歐洲業務確實產生了有益的影響。我努力回憶索康尼第三季度的銷售額，大概在 1200 萬美元到 1400 萬美元之間。與此同時，索康尼的庫存目前極其緊張。Lean 及其清倉銷售額還不到上一年的一半。因此，當你將這兩個因素綜合考慮時，索康尼的有機業務在本季度可能基本持平。我們特別喜歡索康尼持續勢頭的一件事是一次性趨勢，正如你所知，第一季度和第三季度往往更多地受未來訂單驅動，但索康尼其高性能產品的一次性趨勢處於中等水平本季度高達十幾歲。

And then with respect to Cat timing, yes, Cat had some orders that slipped into Q2 and they're going to have some orders that are going to slip into Q4. It's really just a timing issue given the migration out of China and factory capacities. So when we look at the second half for Caterpillar, we expect it's going to have mid-single digit growth to the second half. And as a brand it's going to be up double digits for the year.

然後就 Cat 的時間安排而言，是的，Cat 有一些訂單滑入第二季度，他們將有一些訂單滑入第四季度。考慮到中國的遷出和工廠產能，這實際上只是一個時間問題。因此，當我們展望卡特彼勒下半年時，我們預計下半年將實現中個位數增長。作為一個品牌，今年的銷售額將實現兩位數增長。

It will be up strong double-digits in Q4 Mitch just based on that shift.

僅基於這一轉變，米奇在第四季度的業績就將強勁兩位數增長。

Got it. And then just lastly, you talked about your business was good in the quarter and it sounds like at once as well, but I'm curious, I've heard other companies talk about just given how little inventory there was coming into this fall holiday season that some retailers pulled up some orders. I was wondering if you sign any fall order book kind of deliveries shift out of Q4 into Q3.

知道了。最後，您談到您的業務在本季度表現良好，聽起來也不錯，但我很好奇，我聽其他公司談論過，因為今年秋季假期的庫存很少一些零售商撤回了一些訂單。我想知道您是否簽署了任何秋季訂單，將交貨從第四季度轉移到第三季度。

No. We haven't really seen that out at all. Despite the warm September we didn't -- any of our key retailers, we didn't see them panic. We did on the boots situation or fall product in general, it was pretty much steady on and maybe collectively we've all been rewarded a little bit in October here in early November.

不。我們還沒有真正看到這一點。儘管九月氣候溫暖，但我們的任何主要零售商都沒有看到他們恐慌。我們對靴子的情況或秋季產品進行了總體評估，情況相當穩定，也許我們在 10 月份和 11 月初都得到了一些回報。

Yes, I think that Mitch, I think the reality is we had a really solid commitment on the future order bookings that we had especially in Sperry, and we delivered on that in the third quarter. But as you know, that's all sell in and we saw some -- some good early signs that sell through, we're going to -- we're going to be good for Q4, but those have just improved over the last couple of weeks.

是的，我認為米奇，我認為現實是我們對未來的訂單預訂做出了非常堅定的承諾，尤其是在斯佩里，我們在第三季度兌現了這一承諾。但正如你所知，這一切都在賣出，我們看到了一些 - 一些良好的早期跡象，我們將 - 我們將在第四季度表現良好，但這些在過去幾年中剛剛有所改善幾週。

Our next question comes from the line of Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。

It's Eric Johnson on this morning for Erinn, and thanks for taking the questions. First, yes, I was just wondering, on Saucony you noted your plan in the last 3 quarters. It sounds like reorders have been good, but can you kind of quantify the order of magnitude and upside between reorders, better selling of new products or distribution gains ahead of plan?

今天早上是埃里克·約翰遜為艾琳發言，感謝您提出問題。首先，是的，我只是想知道，關於索康尼，您在過去三個季度中提到了您的計劃。聽起來重新訂購的效果不錯，但是您能否量化重新訂購、新產品更好的銷售或提前計劃的分銷收益之間的數量級和上升空間？

I think I would kind of characterize the Saucony improvement as you mentioned, right. In the first quarter the business was down mid-teens and we've seen progressive improvement in the organic business every quarter. Like mentioned it a little earlier, our inventories in Saucony especially in some of the access price point product is a little bit leaner this year. We were running that on a lean level deliberately. So the upside to really chase any of that businesses is somewhat limited in the fourth quarter. Our closeout demand is down because we don't have closeout inventory right now in Saucony, which is another great sign of their health and improvement in the business. And so the fundamental drivers as we kind of shift into next year for them are going to be this improving trend with their performance category, which has shown some really strong at-once demand in Q3 and continues in Q4. They've got some new products launching that just launched the Triumph a couple of days ago. The new version of the Triumph, which is performing well already and obviously our lifestyle business and Originals business, which is going to be a focus for us as we move into next year. So I like the Saucony business has kind of moved beyond stable or stability and onto a growth trajectory as we kind of pivot to next year. And I think it's in all the right categories and, and based on a much healthier baseline business as well.

我想我會像你提到的那樣描述索康尼的改進，對吧。第一季度的業務下降了十幾歲左右，我們每個季度都看到有機業務的逐步改善。就像之前提到的那樣，今年我們在索康尼的庫存，尤其是一些價格點產品的庫存有所減少。我們故意在精益水平上運行它。因此，第四季度真正追逐任何此類業務的上行空間都有限。我們的清倉需求下降了，因為我們索康尼目前沒有清倉庫存，這是他們業務健康和改善的另一個重要跡象。因此，當我們進入明年時，他們的基本驅動力將是他們的性能類別的這種改善趨勢，這在第三季度顯示出一些非常強勁的一次性需求，並在第四季度繼續下去。他們推出了一些新產品，幾天前剛剛推出了凱旋。新版本的凱旋已經表現良好，顯然我們的生活方式業務和原創業務將成為我們進入明年的重點。因此，我喜歡索康尼業務在我們轉向明年時已經超越了穩定或穩定，進入了增長軌道。我認為它屬於所有正確的類別，並且也基於更健康的基線業務。

Great. That's helpful. Did you guys in the period of supply chain product quality challenges, did you lose any distributors or key accounts there that you have to recapture or are we kind of on the same Plainfield as we were?

偉大的。這很有幫助。你們是否在供應鏈產品質量面臨挑戰的時期，是否失去了必須重新奪回的任何分銷商或關鍵客戶，或者我們是否像以前一樣處於同一個平原地區？

I think we're really on the same Plainfield. We just got back from the global brand conferences that we held across our portfolio and I would say international distributors and community as well as our domestic sales force, they're very excited. The most excited I've seen in the last 3 years about the pipeline of product and ideas that are flowing out of Saucony. So we didn't have really any kind of adverse impact.

我想我們確實在同一個普蘭菲爾德。我們剛剛從我們針對我們的產品組合舉行的全球品牌會議回來，我想說國際分銷商和社區以及我們的國內銷售人員，他們非常興奮。過去三年裡我所看到的最令我興奮的是索康尼不斷湧現的產品和創意。所以我們並沒有真正受到任何不利影響。

Yes, that's good to hear. And one final one for me, I was wondering if you could provide an update on Chaco, I know you're attacking next year with some lower price, entry price product. I'm curious how those are looking into bookings and how you feel about the brand over the next 12 months here?

是的，很高興聽到這個消息。對我來說最後一個問題是，我想知道您是否可以提供 Chaco 的最新信息，我知道您明年將推出一些價格較低、入門價格的產品。我很好奇他們如何調查預訂情況以及您對未來 12 個月內該品牌的感受如何？

Yes. I think the issue -- the support and enthusiasm of the ChacoNation has not dissipated at all. For Chaco, it's simply a question of diversification beyond the Z sandal. The Z sandal business as you know, has been a little challenged, still a great, highly profitable business, but Chaco is expanding with some slides, lighter weight sandals, close toed footwear, some water product that that we will be introducing in 2020. So our focus in Chaco really has been about expanding the product range and the price point availability to the consumer. So the response so far has been very positive there.

是的。我認為這個問題——ChacoNation 的支持和熱情根本沒有消失。對於 Chaco 來說，這只是 Z 涼鞋之外的多元化問題。如您所知，Z 涼鞋業務受到了一些挑戰，但仍然是一項出色的高利潤業務，但Chaco 正在擴張，推出了一些拖鞋、較輕的涼鞋、露趾鞋以及我們將於2020 年推出的一些水產品。因此，我們在 Chaco 的重點實際上是擴大產品範圍和向消費者提供的價格點。所以到目前為止，那裡的反應非常積極。

Good order demand for that category as well, Eric.

埃里克，該類別的訂單需求也很好。

Our next question comes from line of Steve Marotta with C.L. King.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·馬洛塔和 C.L.國王。

Mike, as far as Q4 revenue expectations go, has there been any material changes in the expectations for at-once business from a revenue composition standpoint?

Mike，就第四季度的收入預期而言，從收入構成的角度來看，一次性業務的預期是否有任何重大變化？

Not really. I mean the things that we called out in the prepared remarks would sort of be the additional risk areas for us, not really at-once, I mean, we were fairly conservative in that regard with our previous outlook back in August. But we are seeing some -- a little bit more risk as it relates to shipments what happened very late in the quarter, mostly to our international distributors and that's just really timing not demand related. So that probably be the one area of risk to kind of isolate fundamentally, while again slower start to the quarter. I think as we look at -- we're seeing less volatility in, at-once orders over the last few weeks and just better overall demand. An encouraging kind of signs on in-terms of sell through from our retailers as well. Obviously that's a big part of the equation here. So I think overall, the items that we talked about earlier are really the areas to focus on as it relates to any risk for the quarter.

並不真地。我的意思是，我們在準備好的發言中指出的事情對我們來說可能是額外的風險領域，而不是真正的一次性風險，我的意思是，我們在這方面相對於八月份的展望相當保守。但我們看到了一些——更多的風險，因為它與本季度末發生的發貨有關，主要是我們的國際分銷商，這只是時間問題，與需求無關。因此，這可能是從根本上隔離的一個風險領域，同時本季度的開局又較慢。我認為，正如我們所看到的，過去幾週的一次性訂單波動較小，總體需求有所改善。我們的零售商的銷售情況也出現了令人鼓舞的跡象。顯然，這是方程式的重要組成部分。因此，我認為總體而言，我們之前討論的項目確實是值得關注的領域，因為它與本季度的任何風險有關。

Great. And a follow-up question, I know that you do not publicly comment on future order books, but can you talk at all about how spring summer of 2020 the first half is looking where you think your strengths are? You did comment earlier in the call about being a platform for growth and you expect growth. The first half would be going up against, of course easier comparisons and from a margin standpoint, any sort of commentary that you can give again without being specific about first half of next year would be helpful?

偉大的。一個後續問題，我知道您不會公開評論未來的訂單簿，但您能談談 2020 年春夏上半年您認為自己的優勢在哪裡嗎？您在電話會議的早些時候確實評論過要成為一個增長平台，並且您期望增長。上半年將進行比較，當然更容易進行比較，並且從利潤的角度來看，您可以在不具體說明明年上半年的情況下再次給出任何類型的評論都會有幫助嗎？

Yes. I mean, yes we do not give quarterly backlog guidance or those numbers. I guess maybe just to focus on Q4, which is in front of us in a bit of a precursor for next year. This quarter we currently have it planned to be our highest growth quarter of the year. We think momentum is going to continue throughout Q4, but over the last several years, boots have also become an increasingly important item category for retailers and us in the first quarter. So we've moved -- the industry and the consumer certainly has moved beyond discounting all boots and clearing them out by Christmas time because there's substantial demand going on throughout Q1 for that particular category. Certainly last year we were probably caught a little bit short handed in the -- on the inventory side on, so there's a number of other -- we've certainly seen a pickup in retail traffic, retail performance are mid-single digit comp store performance early on in Q4 and also our e-commerce business, which in the tenth period was up over 25%. So that's all encouraging. Maybe one other thing I can say is, it's still early and the boat category for Sperry has never been a significant Q4 business. But in the early weeks of this quarter, just see boat be flat. That's very encouraging for Sperry and our business overall. We know of at least one major customer we have that is planning on making both their Number 1 story for the spring season. So that's pretty encouraging.

是的。我的意思是，是的，我們不提供季度積壓指導或這些數字。我想也許只是關注第四季度，它就在我們面前，有點像明年的前兆。我們目前計劃本季度成為今年增長最快的季度。我們認為整個第四季度的勢頭將持續下去，但在過去的幾年裡，靴子也成為第一季度零售商和我們越來越重要的商品類別。因此，我們已經採取了行動——行業和消費者肯定已經不再對所有靴子打折並在聖誕節前將其清理掉，因為整個第一季度對該特定類別的需求量很大。當然，去年我們可能在庫存方面有點人手不足，所以還有其他一些問題——我們確實看到零售流量有所回升，零售業績處於中個位數的比較商店第四季度初的業績以及我們的電子商務業務在第十個時期增長了25% 以上。這一切都令人鼓舞。也許我可以說的另一件事是，現在還為時過早，Sperry 的船舶類別從來都不是第四季度的重要業務。但在本季度的前幾週，我們只能看到船表現平平。這對斯佩里和我們的整體業務來說非常令人鼓舞。據我們所知，我們至少有一位主要客戶正計劃將這兩個故事打造成春季的頭號故事。所以這非常令人鼓舞。

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Duffy with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自吉姆·達菲和斯蒂菲爾的對話。

A couple of detailed questions for me, and then I like to get in to some high level stuff on international markets. Mike, the $0.03 from pairs in the guide, what's different from the last guide? Are you still expecting $3.5 million pairs impacted for 2019?

問我幾個詳細的問題，然後我喜歡了解國際市場上的一些高水平的東西。邁克，指南中的雙人組 0.03 美元，與上一個指南有何不同？您是否仍預計 2019 年受影響的鞋款將達到 350 萬美元？

It's a similar number. I think the change and we kind of foreshadowed a slightly higher impact that when we were talking about it before. Before anything was specifically implemented or anything else, for us it's really the timing of when that product comes in and sells in. So we're not going to have a precise estimate on that as you know, Jim, we're ending the quarter. But we think overall we're a little conservative in our outlook. The outlook were foreshadowing that we gave back in August. And not much has really changed, particularly other than the fact that we did bring in more inventory that spring merchandise and some of that merchandise won't ship until January. And so that we won't see the tariff cost impacting the P&L until the first quarter.

這是一個相似的數字。我認為這一變化和我們預示著比我們之前討論的影響稍大的影響。在任何具體實施或其他任何事情之前，對我們來說，這實際上是該產品進入和銷售的時間。所以我們不會對此進行精確的估計，吉姆，我們將在本季度結束時知道這一點。但我們認為總體而言我們的觀點有點保守。這個前景預示著我們八月份的回報。並沒有太大的改變，特別是除了我們確實增加了春季商品的庫存，而且其中一些商品要到一月份才會發貨。因此，直到第一季度我們才會看到關稅成本影響損益。

Okay. And aside from the $0.03 related to tariffs, what's the additional change in the GAAP EPS guide?

好的。除了與關稅相關的 0.03 美元之外，GAAP EPS 指南還有哪些額外變化？

The other additional items we added some more coverage for some environmental related costs, litigation and other costs related to that legacy issue that we continue to work through. And we also had a fairly meaningful reorganization of sorts that took place late in the third quarter, middle of the third quarter. We had some severance costs related to that and we typically treat those as adjusted out of our results. So we included about $2.5 million or $3 million of cost in that category, and about $5 million related to some additional legal and other costs for the environmental issue.

其他附加項目我們增加了一些與環境相關的成本、訴訟和與我們繼續解決的遺留問題相關的其他成本的更多承保範圍。我們還在第三季度末、第三季度中期進行了一次相當有意義的重組。我們有一些與此相關的遣散費，我們通常將這些費用從我們的結果中進行調整。因此，我們在該類別中包含了大約 250 萬美元或 300 萬美元的成本，以及與環境問題的一些額外法律和其他成本相關的大約 500 萬美元。

Okay. And Mike on the last quarter, you did a really nice job of itemizing some of the things, which you expected were going to be contributors to acceleration in the second half of the year. Talk about $10 million to $15 million from additional outlet stores, $14 million to $15 million from the Italian Saucony distributor. How much of that -- how does that split between 3Q and 4Q?

好的。邁克在上個季度，你做了非常好的工作，列出了一些事情，你預計這些事情將有助於下半年的加速。額外的專賣店提供 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元，意大利索康尼經銷商提供 1400 萬至 1500 萬美元。其中有多少——第三季度和第四季度之間如何分配？

Yes. I think that Blake mentioned that. The Saucony impact -- the Italy impact is a little more prominent -- quite a bit more prominent in the third quarter, almost all of that and that's just based on the timing. Obviously as we go through this shift from a distributor business to an own subsidiary business, the timing we want to recognize the revenue is just kind of different and it's going to be a little more clunky this year than it will be going forward. But big chunk of the Saucony piece was in Q3 and that'll be a smaller benefit in Q4. As it relates to the stores, it split about 50/50. We still think that in H2 between those 2 factors, new stores and the acquisition of Italy, it's still in that $25 million to $30 million range, which is what we expected when we gave that guidance before.

是的。我認為布萊克提到過這一點。索康尼的影響——意大利的影響更加突出——在第三季度更加突出，幾乎所有這些都只是基於時間安排。顯然，當我們經歷從分銷商業務到自己的子公司業務的轉變時，我們想要確認收入的時間有點不同，而且今年會比未來更加笨拙。但索康尼的大部分業務都在第三季度，而第四季度的收益將較小。就商店而言，它的比例約為 50/50。我們仍然認為，在下半年，新店和收購意大利這兩個因素之間的價格仍處於 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的範圍內，這正是我們之前給出指導時的預期。

Okay, great. Then last one, you mentioned improving trends in October. I guess, I'm curious are there any notable changes in trends in national markets to highlight, specifically I'm curious is there international regions to be concerned about as we look into 2020 and then related to that, maybe placing some comments and what to expect from Xtep in 2020?

好的，太好了。上一篇，您提到十月份的趨勢有所改善。我想，我很好奇國內市場的趨勢是否有任何顯著的變化需要強調，特別是我很好奇在我們展望 2020 年時是否有國際地區值得關注，然後與之相關，也許發表一些評論以及什麼2020年對特步有何期待？

Yes. I mean let me take Xtep first. Xtep probably isn't going to have a meaningful impact on 2020. It's going to be a foundational year, but strategically Xtep is going to have a big impact on a supplemental line of product for Saucony, performance footwear for example, developed in China that's been done, that only took 4 months to complete. Try and align apparel for that brand and similar efforts on the Merrell side. So although it's not going to be big on the number side, Xtep in 2020 it's going to be a very important foundational year. They've turned out to be a very good -- a great working partner. We've got a great relationship with them. With respect to Internationally, a bit of -- where do you start? It's the new normal, right. So certainly on the European region, the impact of Brexit whether that occurs, if it occurs, when it occurs and the details of that -- that'll have some impact probably on overall business. It certainly is going to have a negative impact on the overall GDP and economic conditions, macro economic conditions in Europe but interestingly enough, Europe was one of the strongest region for us in Q3. So although I keep reading reports that the consumer is kind of standing on the sidelines a little bit, certainly for our brands: Merrell, Caterpillar and some of our other brands -- it's been a -- and certainly Saucony. It was a very good quarter. I would say, Latin America, we continue to see some political shifts to the left. Historically, that's been a little bit challenging when that occurs just to business in general and the consumer. So we don't see that that situation changing overnight.

是的。我的意思是讓我先拿特步。特步可能不會對 2020 年產生有意義的影響。這將是基礎性的一年，但從戰略上講，特步將對索康尼的補充產品線產生重大影響，例如在中國開發的高性能鞋類產品，該產品僅用了4 個月就完成了。嘗試為該品牌調整服裝，並在​​ Merrell 方面做出類似的努力。因此，雖然數量上不會很大，但對特步來說，2020年將是非常重要的基礎年。事實證明，他們是非常好的工作夥伴。我們與他們有著很好的關係。關於國際化，您從哪裡開始？這是新常態，對吧。因此，當然對歐洲地區來說，英國脫歐的影響是否發生、如果發生、何時發生以及細節——這可能會對整體業務產生一些影響。這肯定會對整體 GDP 和經濟狀況以及歐洲的宏觀經濟狀況產生負面影響，但有趣的是，歐洲是我們第三季度表現最強勁的地區之一。因此，儘管我一直在閱讀有關消費者有點站在場外的報導，尤其是對於我們的品牌：邁樂、卡特彼勒和我們的一些其他品牌，尤其是索康尼。這是一個非常好的季度。我想說，拉丁美洲，我們繼續看到一些政治左傾。從歷史上看，當這種情況發生在一般企業和消費者身上時，這有點具有挑戰性。因此，我們認為這種情況不會在一夜之間發生改變。

We've got some countries that are doing just fine and then we've got some other countries that like Shelley that are experienced a little unrest and uncertainty really for the first time and in decades, but still a very important region for us, but the shift to the left on the political side is a little bit concerning. And then Asia Pacific, a tremendous -- there are some ups and downs. Certainly, China remains a very important market. Many of those markets are important. We all know that the South Korean consumer has been pressured over the last 18 months or so, certain sectors in that economy. So there's plenty of upside in Asia Pacific and we've got some I would call them discreet challenges here and there. As you know, we had a couple of distributors go into bankruptcy in Korea over the past year. So a lot going on, on the international front, but we've got 12 brands and we're diversified and I think that plays to our strength.

我們有一些國家表現得很好，還有一些其他國家像雪萊一樣，幾十年來第一次經歷了一些動盪和不確定性，但對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的地區，但是政治方面的左轉有點令人擔憂。然後是亞太地區，有一些起伏。當然，中國仍然是一個非常重要的市場。其中許多市場都很重要。我們都知道，韓國消費者在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡，在該經濟的某些領域一直面臨著壓力。因此，亞太地區有很多優勢，我們到處都有一些我稱之為謹慎的挑戰。如您所知，去年韓國有幾家經銷商破產。在國際方面發生了很多事情，但我們有 12 個品牌，而且我們是多元化的，我認為這發揮了我們的優勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Svezia with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Svezia 和 Wedbush 的對話。

I've got a couple for you. I guess first, just on the tariff, could you maybe explain what the difference is relative to when you gave guidance in August at that point in time we knew about 10% is just -- is this because of the additional 5% and the timing that you have is additional $0.03 relative to when we talked back in August. And I guess to back that up a little bit, if I look at the $0.03 and I look at how much -- let's just look at share repurchases on the stock you bought back and sort of (inaudible) Q4 that more than offsets that $0.03. And I know in Q4 you draw a lot of cash, so maybe the revolver down thereabout interest expense, but --

我有一對給你。我想首先，就關稅而言，您能否解釋一下與您在 8 月份提供指導時相比有何差異，當時我們知道大約 10% 只是——這是因為額外的 5% 和時間安排嗎？與我們8 月份談話時相比，您多了0.03 美元。我想稍微支持一下這一點，如果我看看0.03 美元，看看有多少——讓我們看看你回購的股票的股票回購，以及（聽不清）第四季度的股票回購，這不僅僅是抵消了0.03 美元。我知道在第四季度你會提取大量現金，所以也許左輪手槍會降低利息費用，但是 -

Sure, yes, just a couple clarifications to Chris. First of all, we didn't include any -- and we were pretty clear about this in our outlook last quarter. We didn't include any impact for the new tariffs because they weren't implemented yet when we gave our guidance and we weren't sure what the timing would be what the rate would be or any of those factors. So I think we mentioned in our comments that we might have more than $3 million, $3.5 million of risk at that time. And it was just based on some different estimates than what we have today. We just have more clarity around that as we talked about before. So it wasn't in our outlook at all just to be clear and now that it is that that has a $0.03 impact. The other factors that you're talking about related to the share count really being offset by some other factors, but mostly interest expense as we borrowed under revolver to enter into those buybacks and obviously have -- the rest of the quarter here to generate cash and pay that down. But our outlook includes some relatively $0.02 to $0.03 of higher interest expense than we had in our outlook before, mostly related to the buyback strategy. So the lower share count and the higher interest expense are sort of netting each other off and the outlook and the tariffs are just incremental to what we had before.

當然，是的，只是向克里斯澄清幾點。首先，我們沒有包括任何內容——我們在上季度的展望中對此非常清楚。我們沒有考慮新關稅的任何影響，因為當我們提供指導時，它們尚未實施，我們不確定具體時間、稅率或任何這些因素。所以我想我們在評論中提到我們當時可能有超過 300 萬、350 萬美元的風險。它只是基於一些與我們今天不同的估計。正如我們之前討論過的那樣，我們對此有了更清晰的認識。因此，我們的展望根本不只是為了明確這一點，而現在它對 0.03 美元的影響。您談論的其他因素與股票數量有關，實際上被其他一些因素所抵消，但主要是利息支出，因為我們在左輪手槍下借錢進行這些回購，並且顯然已經在本季度的剩餘時間裡產生現金並付清這筆錢。但我們的展望包括比我們之前的展望高出 0.02 至 0.03 美元的利息支出，主要與回購策略有關。因此，較低的股份數量和較高的利息支出在某種程度上是相互抵消的，前景和關稅只是比我們之前的增量。

Thank you. Could you just maybe touch on the shifts you're talking about $0.05. What that implies? Is that something in SG&A or can you have what color about that?

謝謝。您能談談您所說的 0.05 美元的輪班嗎？這意味著什麼？這是 SG&A 中的內容嗎？或者您能告訴我它是什麼顏色嗎？

Yes, a couple with SG&A, some of it is in the gross margin area as well. I would say, we had really good and better than expected gross margin performance in the third quarter. We are going to be somewhat prepared to move through the inventory that we have here. Obviously, we're not expecting to have a significantly closeout risk or exposure in the quarter, but we always want to give ourselves room to move the inventory. So we brought our estimates in Q4 down a bit on the gross margin side. And then, typically, we will put marketing money behind our biggest opportunities and our biggest growth areas. And as that shifted out of Q3 into Q4, especially on the e-com side of the business and some of our international markets, we shifted some of that spending from Q3 into the fourth quarter. So really just a shift in operating cost to a certain degree and a little bit of shift in gross margin assumptions quarter-by-quarter based on those trends.

是的，加上SG&A，其中一些也屬於毛利率範圍。我想說，我們第三季度的毛利率表現非常好，而且好於預期。我們將做好一些準備來清理我們這裡的庫存。顯然，我們預計本季度不會出現顯著的清倉風險或敞口，但我們始終希望給自己留出移動庫存的空間。因此，我們將第四季度毛利率的預期下調了一些。然後，通常我們會將營銷資金投入到我們最大的機會和最大的增長領域。隨著這種情況從第三季度轉移到第四季度，特別是在業務的電子商務方面和我們的一些國際市場，我們將部分支出從第三季度轉移到第四季度。因此，實際上只是運營成本在一定程度上發生了變化，並且根據這些趨勢逐季度毛利率假設發生了一點變化。

Okay. And then when you talked to October meeting, what you're seeing in October relative to your plan? Is it fair to say it's in line with that plan? Or is it tracking slightly better than planned, but hey we've got a lot to get through in the quarter? Just trying to understand relative to the plan, the comments you're making.

好的。然後，當您在 10 月份的會議上談到時，您在 10 月份看到的與您的計劃相關的內容是什麼？可以說它符合該計劃嗎？或者它的跟踪情況是否比計劃的要好一些，但是嘿，我們在本季度還有很多事情要做？只是想了解與該計劃相關的您所發表的評論。

Our outlook on revenue stayed fairly stable. So I think that's a good indication of kind of how we feel about the trends so far relative to our previous outlook. And I think in addition to that, again, we did call out some of those factors that are sort of late in the quarter factors that we would sort of be keeping our eye on. And those are the areas of any kind of exposure or downside risk we might have in the quarter. But, yes, I think the trends in the business, the sell-through activity we're starting to see -- the best indicator for our business right now is our own DTC platform. And when we see comp sales up the way that they are in our own stores, the performance of Sperry boots, which obviously is an important category for us. In the quarter, our Merrell stores are performing well, our e-com business is trailing ahead of plan a little bit. Those are the best early signs for us, especially this time of year. And so, I think that's another kind of data point for reference.

我們的收入前景保持相當穩定。因此，我認為這很好地表明了我們對迄今為止的趨勢相對於我們之前的展望的看法。我認為除此之外，我們確實再次指出了一些我們會密切關注的季度末因素。這些是我們在本季度可能面臨的任何風險或下行風險的領域。但是，是的，我認為業務趨勢、我們開始看到的銷售活動——目前我們業務的最佳指標是我們自己的 DTC 平台。當我們看到同類產品的銷售量與我們自己商店的銷售量一樣時，Sperry 靴子的表現，這顯然對我們來說是一個重要的類別。本季度，我們的 Merrell 商店表現良好，我們的電子商務業務稍微落後於計劃。這些對我們來說是最好的早期跡象，尤其是每年的這個時候。所以，我認為這是另一種可供參考的數據點。

Okay. Final thing for me was just real quickly. When we think about some of the plan trends that you're seeing here in Q4 whether it's Saucony, Sperry, Merrell, or Caterpillar, it's hard to extrapolate this into next year at these growth rates. But maybe walk through where you feel like the most comfort level with what brand potentially you can get growth out of as we start to think about next year if you could?

好的。對我來說最後一件事真的很快。當我們考慮您在第四季度看到的一些計劃趨勢時，無論是 Saucony、Sperry、Merrell 還是 Caterpillar，都很難按照這些增長率推斷到明年。但是，當我們開始考慮明年是否可以時，也許可以瀏覽一下您覺得最舒適的水平，您可以從哪些品牌中獲得潛在的增長？

Yes, I would say that we expect the next year growth in our Q3 to continue. That's been a focus of ours. We've got some pretty robust new ideas, product pipeline, so we feel comfortable about that. I think with some of our more annuity brands, we'll be focusing on those as well to bring some back into the growth situation. Those brands have been very good for us. As you know, we've kind of pruned our portfolio a couple of years ago, but whether Chaco or Wolverine or Hush Puppies, those are all very profitable brands for us. Some of them may be a bit more of an annuity in our portfolio, but we've got plans to bring those brands back to consistent growth as well.

是的，我想說，我們預計明年第三季度的增長將繼續。這是我們關注的焦點。我們有一些相當強大的新想法、產品線，所以我們對此感到滿意。我認為，對於我們的一些年金品牌，我們也將重點關注這些品牌，以使其恢復增長。這些品牌對我們來說非常有好處。如您所知，幾年前我們已經對我們的產品組合進行了一定程度的精簡，但無論是 Chaco、Wolverine 還是 Hush Puppies，這些對我們來說都是非常有利可圖的品牌。其中一些可能在我們的投資組合中更像是年金，但我們也有計劃讓這些品牌恢復持續增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sam Poser 與 Susquehanna 的對話。

This is Will on for Sam. So I just wanted to dig in a little bit to the DTC business. So can you just -- I think you said you're e-commerce performance was 20% or so year-to-date. Can you just talk about in the quarter and what the current penetration is of the business?

這是威爾為山姆主持的節目。所以我只是想深入了解一下 DTC 業務。那麼你能不能——我想你說過今年迄今為止你的電子商務業績約為 20% 左右。您能談談本季度的情況以及目前該業務的滲透率嗎？

Yes, I mean, we've had a lot of focus on e-commerce. For example, the last several years, it's been our highest growth channel for the company. We frankly don't see any change there. This year, the profitability of that channel, which is accretive to our bottom line performance, has gone up significantly. Year-to-date we're in above the 20% growth across our 12 brand portfolio there. That's accelerated some here in Q4 and maybe some of that's the weather, some of that's maybe a result of our efforts as well, but it's accelerated a little bit in Q4. Certainly going forward we would hope to be able to grow that business on the end of the future at the 20% level or maybe a little better.

是的，我的意思是，我們非常關注電子商務。例如，過去幾年，這是我們公司最高的增長渠道。坦率地說，我們沒有看到任何變化。今年，該渠道的盈利能力顯著上升，這增加了我們的盈利業績。今年迄今為止，我們 12 個品牌組合的增長率超過了 20%。這在第四季度有所加速，也許部分是天氣原因，部分可能也是我們努力的結果，但第四季度有所加速。當然，展望未來，我們希望能夠在未來結束時以 20% 的水平或更好一點的水平增長該業務。

Yes, I think the penetration question you're asking, Will, to is, year-to-date the e-commerce part of our business and our own stores combined is sort of in the 12% to 13% range in terms of global revenue. In Q4, it will be closer to 15% of the mix and sort of trending up closer to 14% for the whole year. So Q4 is a really important quarter for that platform obviously. And as I mentioned earlier, off to a really good start in the quarter so far and continues to achieve plan for the year, which is encouraging as we highlight that as one of our key levers in our growth agenda, but also an area where we've put a lot of investments over the last 2 years as part of our investment strategy.

是的，我認為你問的滲透率問題是，今年迄今為止，我們業務的電子商務部分和我們自己的商店加在一起，就全球而言，在 12% 到 13% 的範圍內。收入。第四季度，這一比例將接近 15%，並且全年有接近 14% 的趨勢。因此，第四季度顯然對該平台來說是一個非常重要的季度。正如我之前提到的，到目前為止，本季度有一個非常好的開端，並繼續實現今年的計劃，這是令人鼓舞的，因為我們強調這是我們增長議程的關鍵槓桿之一，也是我們的一個領域作為我們投資策略的一部分，過去兩年進行了大量投資。

Great, thanks. And then just on the work business, so it sounded like Cat was a bit of a drag just from timing issues, but can you just talk about how that business is performing overall? And I know you've seen some momentum with some new Merrell product. But can you just sort of give us some more color on how that business is performing?

萬分感謝。然後就工作業務而言，聽起來 Cat 只是因為時間問題而受到了一些拖累，但您能否談談該業務的整體表現如何？我知道您已經看到了一些新的 Merrell 產品的勢頭。但您能給我們更多關於該業務表現的信息嗎？

Yes, I know some other companies have reported that was an area of softness for them in Q3 and certainly I think whether it's the -- whether some other consumer factors may have had a bit of an impact on that category. For us, our work business works in tactical across our 5 brands that really participate in that area was pretty good and we took pretty significant market share. For example, Wolverine and Cat both increased their market share in the quarter as Merrell was up very strong double digits in Q3. We continue to see that as very important category for the company where we're giving it time and attention across the portfolio and we continue to see that as a growth area.

是的，我知道其他一些公司報告說，這是他們在第三季度表現疲軟的領域，當然我認為是否其他一些消費者因素可能對該類別產生了一些影響。對我們來說，我們的工作業務在我們真正參與該領域的 5 個品牌中發揮著戰略作用，這非常好，我們佔據了相當大的市場份額。例如，Wolverine 和 Cat 在本季度的市場份額均有所增加，而 Merrell 在第三季度的市場份額增長了非常強勁的兩位數。我們仍然認為這對公司來說是非常重要的類別，我們在整個投資組合中給予它時間和關注，並且我們繼續將其視為一個增長領域。

Great. And just one housekeeping thing here. So you mentioned what -- you mentioned 4Q performances for the 3 brands. Are you still reiterating guidance for Merrell up high singles, Sperry up mid-singles? And I guess when you think Saucony is going to positively inflect on an organic basis?

偉大的。這裡只有一件家務事。所以你提到了 3 個品牌的第四季度業績。您是否仍在重申對梅雷爾（Merrell）高單打、斯佩里（Sperry）中單打的指導？我猜你什麼時候認為索康尼會在有機的基礎上積極變化？

Yes, I mean, we have reiterated all those estimates for us. We think 2020 is going to be a bit of a breakout year for Saucony.

是的，我的意思是，我們已經重申了所有這些估計。我們認為 2020 年對於索康尼來說將是突破性的一年。

I agree with that. Organically, there always puts and takes right for a business that's going through some transformation like Saucony is. But if you sort of normalize it for the level of closeouts and sort of lower end product that are holding back that organic growth in the back half of this year, the organic business for Saucony would be positive in Q4 even without the impact of the acquisition that we made. So I'd say it's safe to say we're sort of at that point and to Blake's point sort of encouraged by the opportunity as we see for next year in Saucony in particular.

我同意這一點。從有機角度來看，對於像索康尼這樣正在經歷轉型的企業來說，總有一些正確的做法。但如果你將清倉水平和低端產品的水平正常化，這些產品會阻礙今年下半年的有機增長，那麼即使沒有收購的影響，索康尼的有機業務在第四季度也將是積極的我們製作的。所以我想說，可以肯定地說，我們已經到了那個階段，而且就布萊克的觀點而言，我們對這個機會感到鼓舞，尤其是明年在索康尼。

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Komp with Robert W. Baird

我們的下一個問題來自喬納森·康普 (Jonathan Komp) 和羅伯特·W·貝爾德 (Robert W. Baird) 的對話

I just want to follow up, given the shape of the growth in 2019 being very backend driven and some of the specific drivers behind that. As you think forward to next year, any kind of high level thoughts on how we should be planning the shape of growth next year if it's significantly first half weighted or if you think there's a strong pipeline that you can cycle some of what you've done and sustain growth at healthy levels into the second half of next year.

鑑於 2019 年的增長是由後端驅動的，以及背後的一些具體驅動因素，我只想跟進一下。當你展望明年時，關於我們應該如何規劃明年的增長形式的任何高層想法，如果上半年加權明顯，或者你認為有一個強大的渠道，你可以循環一些你已經做的事情並在明年下半年保持健康水平的增長。

Yes, I think, you're going to see some very consistent, more consistent quarterly growth for the business next year. Some good factors that help us in the first half include the acquisition that we've talked about in Europe and even the addition of the stores that we have this year that were added later in the year. So that'd be helpful to the first half. But I think this year we saw that benefit in the back half and it'll be more of a first half positive us in 2020. But the improvement overall in Saucony, which we continue to point to I think is also going to be a nice headwind for us or a tailwind for us in the first half of the year versus the headwind that it represented in 2019. And I think those are factors that sort of allow us to think about next year as a much more balanced year from a quarterly growth standpoint.

是的，我認為，明年您將看到業務的一些非常一致、更一致的季度增長。上半年對我們有幫助的一些好因素包括我們在歐洲討論過的收購，甚至是今年晚些時候增加的商店。所以這對上半場很有幫助。但我認為今年我們在下半年看到了這種好處，並且在 2020 年上半年對我們更加有利。但索康尼的整體改善，我們繼續指出，我認為這對我們來說也將是一個很好的逆風，或者是我們今年上半年相對於 2019 年的逆風而言的順風。我認為這些因素使我們能夠從季度增長的角度將明年視為更加平衡的一年。

Okay. And just to follow-up, I mean, the pipeline, as you look forward really into the second half of next year, do you think there is enough to sustain the momentum even then?

好的。就後續而言，我的意思是，當您真正期待明年下半年時，您認為管道是否足以維持這種勢頭？

We believe so. I mean, when we look at just as one example, the product pipeline for Saucony, we have some great first half introductions plan, but I would say even their product pipeline leans a little bit more to the second half of the year. And we have -- we think boots are going to continue to be very important again in the second part of the year. We've got some new programs across the portfolio. So we feel comfortable about the growth in the second part of the year.

我們相信是這樣。我的意思是，當我們以索康尼的產品線為例時，我們有一些很棒的上半年推出計劃，但我想說，即使他們的產品線也更傾向於下半年。我們認為靴子在今年下半年將繼續變得非常重要。我們的產品組合中有一些新項目。因此，我們對今年下半年的增長感到滿意。

Yes, excited about the momentum in Cat that that was very strong this year. We'll have double digit growth in 2019 in that business. And a lot of that's being driven in some core work categories, but a much of it is lifestyle driven globally, which is encouraging and that pipeline is strengthening. And the Merrell pipeline as you know with Chris Hufnagel at the reigns there, being able to transfer some of that that strategy and approach that he applied to Cat. In the Merrell business here I think we were seeing a quick improvement there and a quick acceleration of some big product ideas for Merrell going into next year as well.

是的，我對今年 Cat 的強勁勢頭感到興奮。2019 年我們該業務將實現兩位數增長。其中很多是由一些核心工作類別驅動的，但其中很大一部分是由全球生活方式驅動的，這是令人鼓舞的，而且渠道正在加強。正如您所知，Merrell 管道由 Chris Hufnagel 掌管，能夠將他應用於 Cat 的部分策略和方法轉移到該公司。在梅雷爾的業務中，我認為我們看到了那裡的快速改進，並且梅雷爾的一些重大產品創意也在快速加速進入明年。

Yes, excellent, great to hear. And then maybe just a follow-up on that tariffs and I know even today the headlines are fast and highly unpredictable. But I just wanted to maybe ask logistically, when you think about any of the mitigation efforts that are kind of planned to be put in place, maybe any thoughts on kind of timing of those. And then if you had a scenario where you went down the path of putting into place some of those offsets and then tariffs were phased out. Like logistically, how would you think about the ins and outs of some of those scenarios?

是的，非常好，很高興聽到。然後也許只是關稅的後續行動，我知道即使在今天，頭條新聞也是快速且高度不可預測的。但我只是想從邏輯上問一下，當你考慮計劃採取的任何緩解措施時，也許對這些措施的時間安排有什麼想法。然後，如果你有一種情況，你採取了一些抵消措施，然後關稅被逐步取消。就像邏輯上一樣，您如何看待其中一些場景的來龍去脈？

Yes, I would say, we have a little more time to plan for 2020 then we did for Q3 and Q4 of this year. And we know that -- we appreciate that the news and the direction can change overnight. But once you start the migration out of China, it's something we've been on for 5 years. You really don't reverse course. We know it adds a little bit to lead times. We have not seen an increase in product costs. In fact, they've actually gone down. So when we look at what at this point may be the tariff exposure for next year, we would hope to be able to neutralize that. It won't be easy; we've negotiated hard. We have some lower prices. We have new products that'll take this tariff situation into account in the gross margin category. We are going to take some selective price increases when necessary across our brands. So as the industry and we're going to look for other efficiencies in the supply chain. So again, we don't know what's in front of us. It can change, but we've been very proactive here to kind of neutralize those costs for 2020.

是的，我想說，與今年第三季度和第四季度相比，我們有更多的時間來規劃 2020 年。我們知道——我們很高興新聞和方向可以在一夜之間改變。但一旦開始從中國遷移，我們就已經進行了 5 年了。你真的不會改變方向。我們知道這會稍微延長交貨時間。我們沒有看到產品成本增加。事實上，他們確實已經下降了。因此，當我們考慮明年可能面臨的關稅風險時，我們希望能夠抵消這一風險。這並不容易；我們經過艱苦談判。我們有一些較低的價格。我們的新產品將在毛利率類別中考慮到這種關稅情況。必要時，我們將有選擇地對我們的品牌進行提價。因此，整個行業和我們將在供應鏈中尋找其他效率。再說一遍，我們不知道前面是什麼。它可能會發生變化，但我們一直非常積極主動地在 2020 年抵消這些成本。

Jon, I think, clearly our approach is to just go full steam ahead on this. And we're doing a lot of these things for all good reasons that aren't even related to tariff increases, right. So the diversification out of China is something that we just need to do as a global company. And it's really going to help us in the long run. We're factoring into our thinking for next year, some of the other costs related to this transition, right. We're going to have other costs for just continuing to move out of China and there may be some impacts on things like freight and lead times that Blake mentioned. But, fundamentally, we're doing the right thing. We're staying the course. And I don't think we're holding back on any of those mitigation initiatives at this point. We're just kind of lean in 100% and make them happen.

喬恩，我認為，顯然我們的方法是全速前進。我們出於各種充分的理由做很多這樣的事情，甚至與關稅增加無關，對吧。因此，作為一家跨國公司，我們需要在中國以外實現多元化發展。從長遠來看，這確實會對我們有所幫助。我們正在考慮明年的想法，以及與這一轉變相關的一些其他成本，對吧。我們將因繼續遷出中國而產生其他成本，並且可能會對布萊克提到的貨運和交貨時間等方面產生一些影響。但從根本上來說，我們正在做正確的事情。我們將堅持到底。我認為我們目前不會阻止任何緩解措施。我們只是百分百投入並讓它們發生。

Our final question comes from the line of Ross Licero with Telsey Advisory.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory 的 Ross Licero。

I just had a question on the Merrell strategy going forward. You said Chris Hufnagel would transfer the strategy that he was using a Cat over to Merrell. I just wanted to see what kind of implications that had and how is the Merrell strategy going to change?

我剛剛對梅雷爾的未來戰略有疑問。你說克里斯·赫夫納格爾會將他使用貓的策略轉移給梅雷爾。我只是想看看這會產生什麼樣的影響以及梅雷爾的策略將如何改變？

Well, I think, Chris has been with us. It's hard to imagine 10 years already. He's had a number of positions at the company: Head of Strategy, Head of Consumer Direct. He was also one of our co-chair transformation officers in our Wolverine way forward. He was one of the people really responsible for developing the new tools, skill sets and processes that will be applied against the brand growth model. So in just a year and a half, we saw unbelievable progress in Cat footwear. And we think he is going to bring that same skill set and discipline to Merrell. You may not see any huge immediate shift in product categories or overall strategies for the brand, which is focused on not just work and tactical, but kind of owning the trail. But he's one of our best and brightest and we're putting them behind our biggest opportunity. And we've already seen the impact of that in Cat footwear. So hats off to Chris and the overall Merrell team. We really couldn't be more excited about that move.

嗯，我想，克里斯一直和我們在一起。很難想像已經過去10年了。他在公司擔任過多個職位：戰略主管、消費者直接主管。他也是我們金剛狼前進道路上的聯合主席轉型官員之一。他是真正負責開發新工具、技能組合和流程的人員之一，這些工具、技能和流程將應用於品牌增長模型。因此，在短短一年半的時間裡，我們就看到了 Cat 鞋類取得了令人難以置信的進步。我們認為他將為梅雷爾帶來同樣的技能和紀律。您可能不會看到產品類別或品牌整體戰略發生任何巨大的立即轉變，該品牌的重點不僅在於工作和戰術，而且在於擁有踪跡。但他是我們最優秀、最聰明的球員之一，我們正在將他們視為我們最大的機會。我們已經在 Cat 鞋類中看到了這一點的影響。向 Chris 和整個 Merrell 團隊致敬。我們真的對這一舉動感到非常興奮。

Okay, great. Thanks. And just on the digital growth strategy, you noted that that was focused on customer retention. Can you give a little bit more color on what you're doing on that front? And do you expect that focus to continue? Or are you going to shift towards new customer development at some point?

好的，太好了。謝謝。就數字增長戰略而言，您指出該戰略的重點是客戶保留。您能否對您在這方面所做的工作提供更多的信息？您預計這種關注會持續下去嗎？或者您是否會在某個時候轉向新客戶開發？

Well, I wouldn't say that we're not focused on new customers. I think what we're seeing is just in terms of the cost of acquiring new customers, we can take -- we're seeing improvement in that area because of the improvements in our retention rates and those have doubled over the last 12 months or so. And it's still a smaller percentage of the overall traffic into the sites. But as we get better at enhancing the consumer experience on our sites, using the tool sets we've invested and to make sure that we're engaging with that consumer on a more regular basis with the right messages. We're just seeing a good organic improvement there, which means that we can spend less on new consumer acquisition. So that's helped to us drive a better operating profit in a better result for the e-com business. Here is just a little more to work with as we think about the next level of investments we want to make to drive growth there.

嗯，我不會說我們不關注新客戶。我認為我們所看到的只是在獲取新客戶的成本方面，我們可以採取——我們看到該領域有所改善，因為我們的保留率有所提高，並且在過去12 個月中翻了一番，或者所以。而且它在網站總流量中所佔的比例仍然較小。但隨著我們更好地增強網站上的消費者體驗，使用我們投資的工具集，並確保我們更定期地通過正確的信息與消費者互動。我們剛剛看到了良好的有機改善，這意味著我們可以減少在新消費者獲取上的支出。因此，這有助於我們獲得更好的營業利潤，從而為電子商務業務帶來更好的結果。當我們思考我們想要進行的下一階段的投資以推動那裡的增長時，還有一些需要合作的地方。

Okay, great. And then just one more on guidance, you've guided to $0.03, lower just due to tariffs. Where is that being reflected? It looks like you kept the gross margin guidance about the same.

好的，太好了。然後還有一個指導，指導價為 0.03 美元，僅因關稅而降低。這體現在哪裡？看來你們的毛利率指導保持不變。

Yes, we always use proximate references to those margin rates, right. We said approximately 41% gross margin, approximately 12% operating margin, which is what we said in our last outlook. But those ranges can shift 10 basis points or 20 basis points or 30 basis points. And that's really where the difference is coming through. I think you still see -- even with that $3 million of additional tariff costs, still a very, very close to the 12% estimate that we gave.

是的，我們總是使用這些保證金率的近似參考，對吧。我們說毛利率約為41%，營業利潤率約為12%，這是我們在上次展望中所說的。但這些範圍可能會移動 10 個基點、20 個基點或 30 個基點。這確實是差異所在。我想你仍然會看到——即使有 300 萬美元的額外關稅成本，仍然非常非常接近我們給出的 12% 的估計。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And I'd like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給管理層，讓他們發表結束語。

On behalf of Wolverine World Wide, I'd like to thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, our conference call replay is available on our website at wolverineworldwide.com. The replay will be available until December 7, 2019. Thank you and good day.

我謹代表金剛狼世界感謝您今天加入我們。請注意，我們的電話會議重播可在我們的網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。重播將持續至 2019 年 12 月 7 日。謝謝你，美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您度過美好的一天。