Wolverine World Wide Inc (WWW) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Wolverine Worldwide Second Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Harris, Vice President, Corporate Finance. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

歡迎參加 Wolverine Worldwide 2019 財年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，公司財務副總裁 Mike Harris。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning and welcome to our second quarter 2019 conference call. On the call today are Blake Krueger, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2019 年第二季電話會議。今天參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Blake Krueger；以及我們的資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Stornant。

Earlier this morning, we announced our financial results for the second quarter 2019. The release is available on many news sites or it can be viewed from our corporate website at wolverineworldwide.com. If you would prefer to have a copy of the news release sent to you directly, please call Francesca Filandro at 646-677-1814.

今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2019 年第二季的財務表現。新聞稿可在許多新聞網站上找到，也可以從我們的公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。如果您希望直接向您發送新聞稿副本，請致電 Francesca Filandro，電話：646-677-1814。

This morning's press release included non-GAAP disclosures and these disclosures were reconciled with attached tables within the body of the release. Comments during today's earnings call will include some additional non-GAAP disclosures. There is a document posted on our corporate website titled WWW Q2 2019 Conference Call Supplemental Tables that will reconcile these non-GAAP disclosures to GAAP. The document is accessible under the Investor Relations tab at our corporate website wolverineworldwide.com by clicking on the webcast link at the top of the page.

今天早上的新聞稿包括非公認會計原則披露，這些披露與新聞稿正文中的附表進行了核對。今天的財報電話會議上的評論將包括一些額外的非公認會計原則揭露。我們的公司網站上發布了一份名為 WWW Q2 2019 電話會議補充表的文件，該文件將使這些非 GAAP 揭露與 GAAP 保持一致。透過點擊頁面頂部的網路廣播鏈接，可以在我們公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 的「投資者關係」標籤下存取該文件。

During our call, we are providing adjusted financial results, which adjust for the impacts of environmental and related costs, business development-related expenses and foreign exchange rate changes.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將提供調整後的財務業績，該業績根據環境和相關成本、業務發展相關費用以及外匯匯率變化的影響進行調整。

I'd also like to remind you that predictions and projections made during today's conference call regarding Wolverine Worldwide and its operations are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities laws. As a result, we must caution you that as with any prediction or projection, there are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These important risk factors are identified in the Company's SEC filings and in our press releases.

我還想提醒您，今天的電話會議中有關 Wolverine Worldwide 及其營運的預測和預測屬於美國證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。因此，我們必須提醒您，與任何預測或預測一樣，有許多因素可能導致實際結果有重大差異。這些重要的風險因素已在公司向 SEC 提交的文件和我們的新聞稿中確定。

With that being said, I'd like to turn the call over to Blake Krueger.

話雖如此，我想把電話轉給布萊克·克魯格。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.52. Despite overall sluggish U.S. retail conditions, second quarter revenue increased 1.1% on a constant currency basis. While 4 of our top 5 brands met or exceeded our revenue expectations, going into the quarter.

謝謝，麥克。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們報告調整後每股收益為 0.52 美元。儘管美國零售業整體低迷，但以固定匯率計算，第二季營收成長了 1.1%。進入本季度，我們排名前 5 名的品牌中有 4 個達到或超過了我們的收入預期。

As a company we remain focused on delivering annual mid-single-digit organic growth. While Q2 did not meet our longer-term goal momentum is building and our brands are poised for much better second half top line performance.

作為一家公司，我們仍然專注於實現年度中個位數有機成長。雖然第二季沒有達到我們的長期目標，但勢頭正在增強，我們的品牌預計將在下半年實現更好的營收表現。

The recent news on tariff front is not expected to have a material impact on the business in the second half or on next year's results; more on that in a few minutes. Let me quickly review the quarterly results for our brand groups and key brands. I will then provide an update on the status of our key 2019 investments and our view and outlook given last week's announcement of additional tariffs on footwear imports from China.

近期關稅方面的消息預計不會對下半年業務或明年業績產生重大影響；幾分鐘後將詳細介紹。讓我快速回顧一下我們的品牌集團和主要品牌的季度表現。然後，我將介紹我們 2019 年主要投資的最新情況，以及鑑於上周宣布對中國鞋類進口加徵關稅的觀點和前景。

Starting with the Wolverine Michigan Group. Revenues grew 1.3% compared to the prior year and 2.4% on a constant currency basis; with several brands delivering attractive growth. Merrell's results exceeded expectations as the brand grew mid-single-digits in the quarter and is poised for a strong second half. Cat had another strong quarter growing almost 25%. And we also saw gains in Hy Test. The growth in these brands were partially offset by declines in Wolverine and some of our smaller brands.

從密西根狼獾集團開始。營收較前一年成長 1.3%，以固定匯率計算成長 2.4%；多個品牌實現了有吸引力的成長。梅雷爾的業績超出了預期，該品牌在本季度實現了中個位數成長，並為下半年的強勁表現做好了準備。Cat 又一個強勁的季度成長了近 25%。我們也看到了 Hy Test 的進展。這些品牌的成長被金剛狼和我們一些較小品牌的下降部分抵消。

Merrell's growth was driven by strength across most performance categories and excellent consumer acceptance of new collections, highlighted by the Nova, Antora [Prairie] District and Gridway offering.

Merrell 的成長得益於大多數性能類別的實力以及消費者對新產品系列的良好接受度，特別是 Nova、Antora [Prairie] District 和 Gridway 產品。

New product launches helped drive the brand's DTC business. Merrell's e-commerce business grew 27% in the quarter. Consumer digital and social media trends for Merrell were robust with media views, impressions, search interest and site traffic all up at attractive rates. This strength continued to position Merrell as the market leader in hike, while expanding market share in the trail running category. We expect Merrell to grow high single-digits in the second half driven by continued direct to consumer momentum, a robust product pipeline and a favorable order backlog.

新產品的推出幫助推動了該品牌的 DTC 業務。Merrell 的電子商務業務本季成長了 27%。Merrell 的消費者數位和社群媒體趨勢強勁，媒體瀏覽量、印象數、搜尋興趣和網站流量均以極具吸引力的速度成長。這一優勢繼續使 Merrell 成為徒步旅行市場的領導者，同時擴大了越野跑類別的市場份額。我們預計，在持續的直接面向消費者的勢頭、強大的產品線和有利的積壓訂單的推動下，梅雷爾下半年將實現高個位數成長。

Cat's strong growth was primarily driven by its international business, specifically the Asia Pacific region. The brand's owned e-commerce business also grew 36% benefiting from favorable trends in search interest and site traffic. And the U.S. business grew at a low single-digit pace. The work category continued to perform well growing at a double-digit rate; with the brand again expanding U.S. market share in this category during the quarter.

Cat 的強勁成長主要得益於其國際業務，特別是亞太地區的業務。受益於搜尋興趣和網站流量的有利趨勢，該品牌自有的電子商務業務也成長了 36%。美國業務以低個位數成長。工作類別持續以兩位數的速度成長；該品牌在本季再次擴大該類別的美國市場份額。

The decline in Q2 revenues for the Wolverine brand was driven primarily by the U.S. wholesale business. Due to softer than expected reorders and [acute] retail customers reduction in stores. Partially offset by strong growth in e-commerce of 25%. The Michigan group includes the 5 brands that make up the company's work category, which continues to experience meaningful momentum. Our overall revenue in this category has increased at a high single-digit rate during the first half of the year outpacing the overall U.S. work footwear market. The work category represented approximately 15% of our global revenue during the first half and continues to be a significant growth opportunity for the company.

Wolverine 品牌第二季營收下降主要是由美國批發業務推動的。由於再訂購量低於預期以及商店中零售客戶的[急劇]減少。電子商務 25% 的強勁成長部分抵消了這一影響。密西根集團包括構成公司工作類別的 5 個品牌，該類別繼續呈現有意義的勢頭。今年上半年，我們在這一類別的整體收入以高個位數成長率成長，超過了整個美國工作鞋市場。這個工作類別約占我們上半年全球收入的 15%，並且仍然是公司的重要成長機會。

Moving to the Boston group. Revenue for the Boston group was flat for quarter versus the prior year. After a soft Q1 Sperry rebounded and exceeded expectations with a slight Q2 decrease. Saucony declined mid-single-digits but also exceeded expectations for the second straight quarter as the turnaround continued to gain momentum. This decline was largely offset by mid-teens growth from Keds, while the kids business was flat to last year.

轉移到波士頓組。波士頓集團本季營收與去年持平。在經歷第一季的疲軟之後，斯佩里出現反彈並超出預期，第二季度略有下降。索康尼的銷售額下降了中個位數，但隨著扭虧為盈的勢頭繼續增強，也連續第二個季度超出了預期。這一下降在很大程度上被 Keds 十幾歲左右的成長所抵消，而兒童業務與去年持平。

For Sperry, the U.S. boat shoe category was down in the high single-digit range but in line with expectations and a significant improvement relative to Q1. Other areas of the Sperry business performed well, including the casual and lifestyle boot category, which grew at a double-digit rate with strong sell-through at retail.

對於 Sperry 來說，美國船鞋類別下降了高個位數範圍，但符合預期，並且相對於第一季有顯著改善。Sperry 業務的其他領域表現良好，包括休閒和生活方式靴子類別，以兩位數的速度增長，零售銷量強勁。

Boots in particular have had a strong early start to the fall season. The Sperry e-commerce business was up 30% in Q2 driven by success in women's and the Gold Cup premium product category. We are pleased that Sperry's business regained momentum during the second quarter and we expect growth to accelerate in the second half at a double-digit rate, driven by less reliance on boat shoes and a very strong boot offering.

尤其是靴子，在秋季開局之初就表現強勁。由於女裝和金杯優質產品類別的成功，Sperry 電子商務業務在第二季度增長了 30%。我們很高興 Sperry 的業務在第二季度恢復了勢頭，我們預計下半年成長將以兩位數的速度加速，這得益於對船鞋的依賴減少和非常強大的靴子產品。

Saucony exceeded expectations in Q2 but was down mid-single-digits related to challenges in the technical run category in the U.S. and EMEA regions. The brand continues to benefit from the performance of e-commerce, which delivered growth of 27%. We continue to see Saucony returning to growth during the second half of the year driven by the addition of Saucony Italy, a strong pipeline of new product introductions and continued strong e-commerce performance.

索康尼第二季度超出了預期，但由於美國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區技術跑步類別的挑戰，其業績下降了中個位數。該品牌繼續受益於電子商務的業績，實現了 27% 的成長。在索康尼義大利公司的加入、強大的新產品推出管道以及持續強勁的電子商務業績的推動下，我們繼續看到索康尼在下半年恢復成長。

Keds mid-teens performance in Q2 reflects healthy growth in the U.S. and several international regions. With owned e-commerce expanding 28%. The Core Champion product category and product collaboration continued to drive strong performance.

Keds 第二季度的業績反映了美國和幾個國際地區的健康成長。自有電子商務擴張 28%。核心冠軍產品類別和產品協作持續推動強勁業績。

Let me provide a quick update on our global growth agenda, where we continue to make important investments to create a faster and more innovative product creation engine, drive our digital direct offense and expand our international business. These investments in the aggregate totaled approximately $10 million in the quarter; with continued expectations to invest approximately $38 million for the full year. In addition, we still expect to spend approximately $40 million on capital investments to open stores and accelerate growth in global market. Including the acquisition of Saucony's Italian distributor, which closed in the second quarter, and the previously announced China joint venture.

讓我快速介紹我們的全球成長議程，我們將繼續進行重要投資，以創建更快、更具創新性的產品創造引擎，推動我們的數位直接進攻並擴大我們的國際業務。本季這些投資總額約為 1,000 萬美元；預計全年投資約 3,800 萬美元。此外，我們仍預計將花費約4000萬美元的資本投資來開設商店並加速全球市場的成長。包括第二季完成的對索康尼義大利經銷商的收購，以及先前宣布的中國合資公司。

We continue to focus on our long-term objectives in executing against this agenda including the implementation of the brand growth model across our brands. We are dedicating resources to help our brands accelerate the strength of their product pipeline and bring a continuous flow of our on trend and cravable products to our global consumers.

我們繼續專注於執行此議程的長期目標，包括在我們的品牌中實施品牌成長模式。我們正在投入資源來幫助我們的品牌加速其產品線的實力，並將我們的流行和渴望的產品源源不斷地提供給我們的全球消費者。

Our targeted investments in our own e-commerce business have delivered robust top line growth thus far in 2019. We've also made important progress in executing on our global expansion strategy, with the international business growing 7% during the quarter on a constant currency basis.

2019 年迄今為止，我們對自有電子商務業務的針對性投資實現了強勁的營收成長。我們在執行全球擴張策略方面也取得了重要進展，以固定匯率計算，本季國際業務成長了 7%。

Given last week, the announcement of an incremental 10% tariff on Class 4 items from China, which includes footwear. I'd like to provide an update on the relatively minimal impact this will have on our business in the short- and longer-term. Over 5 years ago, the company implemented a Strategic Action Plan to migrate product out of China as part of a broader plan to improve sourcing diversification for our global business. We accelerated our strategic migration initiative over the last couple of years, given the tariff negotiations.

鑑於上週宣布對來自中國的第四類商品（其中包括鞋類）增加 10% 的關稅。我想提供最新情況，說明這對我們的業務的短期和長期影響相對較小。五年多前，該公司實施了一項戰略行動計劃，將產品遷出中國，作為改善我們全球業務採購多元化的更廣泛計劃的一部分。鑑於關稅談判，我們在過去幾年中加快了戰略遷移計劃。

In 2019, the percentage of our footwear sold in the U.S. from China factories is substantially smaller than the footwear industry as a whole. As a result, we plan to only import approximately 3.5 million pairs into the U.S. from China during the last 4 months of 2019. Our healthy inventory position will also help minimize the impact of any new tariffs should they be imposed.

2019年，我們從中國工廠在美國銷售的鞋類所佔的比例遠小於整個鞋類產業的比例。因此，我們計劃在 2019 年最後 4 個月僅從中國進口約 350 萬雙鞋到美國。我們健康的庫存狀況也將有助於最大限度地減少徵收新關稅的影響。

For 2020, we expect China imports to decline dramatically to approximately 7.5 million pairs for the entire year, less than 10% of the global pairs sold by our brand. We expect a further dramatic decline to approximately 3.5 million pairs in 2021. We are working on efforts to reduce these amount even further.

2020 年，我們預計全年中國進口量將大幅下降至約 750 萬雙，不到我們品牌全球銷售的 10%。我們預計 2021 年產量將進一步大幅下降至約 350 萬雙。我們正在努力進一步減少這些數量。

We've been able to move very quickly because approximately 75% of pairs transitioning out of China are moving to factories owned by existing sourcing partners. A multi-year strategy and continuing aggressive transition plan now puts the company in an excellent position to manage the potential cost impact of higher tariffs on footwear over both the short and longer timeframe. While our mitigation actions might provide us with the midterm competitive advantage, as a matter of policy, we remain opposed to higher import tariffs on footwear, which already has one of the highest tariff duty rates compared to a wide spectrum of other industries and product category.

我們能夠非常迅速地採取行動，因為大約 75% 的從中國轉移到現有採購合作夥伴擁有的工廠的對數。現在，多年策略和持續積極的過渡計劃使該公司處於有利地位，可以在短期和較長時間內管理鞋類更高關稅的潛在成本影響。雖然我們的緩解行動可能為我們提供中期競爭優勢，但作為政策問題，我們仍然反對提高鞋類進口關稅，與許多其他行業和產品類別相比，鞋類已經是關稅稅率最高的國家之一。

Our updated outlook for the second half of the year reflects total revenue growth accelerating to mid-single-digits. This includes very strong projected growth for our 3 largest brands, Merrell, Sperry and Saucony; which on a combined basis are expected to be up close to 10%. The second half momentum in our largest brands is supported not only by the current order book, but also continued strong e-commerce performance relating to our digital direct offense, the impact of new stores and accelerated international growth at Merrell and Saucony.

我們對下半年的最新展望反映了總收入成長加速至中個位數。這包括我們三大品牌 Merrell、Sperry 和 Saucony 的強勁預計成長；預計合計增幅將接近 10%。我們最大品牌的下半年勢頭不僅受到當前訂單的支持，還受到與我們的數位直接進攻相關的持續強勁的電子商務業績、新店的影響以及邁樂和索康尼加速的國際增長的支持。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer who'll provide additional commentary on our second quarter financial performance, along with an updated outlook for Q3 and the full year. Mike.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官邁克·斯托南特（Mike Stornant），他將對我們第二季度的財務業績提供更多評論，以及第三季度和全年的最新展望。麥克風。

Thanks, Blake, and thank you all for joining us today. Our diversified portfolio served the company well during the second quarter as several brands delivered solid revenue growth and Sperry's performance improved significantly versus Q1.

謝謝布萊克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的多元化產品組合在第二季度為公司提供了良好的服務，多個品牌實現了穩健的收入成長，而且 Sperry 的業績較第一季顯著改善。

The success helped to offset the headwinds faced by some of our smaller brands, and enabled the company to achieve low single-digit constant currency growth. Despite the revenue results that were slightly below our expectations, the company delivered earnings and cash flow ahead of our plan for Q2.

這一成功有助於抵消我們一些較小品牌所面臨的不利因素，並使公司能夠實現較低的個位數恆定貨幣成長。儘管收入結果略低於我們的預期，但該公司的獲利和現金流超出了我們第二季的計劃。

Gross margin for the quarter was 40.5%, in line with expectations but down 80 basis points from the prior year. This was mostly related to unfavorable mix and higher closeout costs. These factors were partially offset by the favorable impact of strong growth in our higher gross margin direct-to-consumer businesses.

本季毛利率為 40.5%，符合預期，但較上年同期下降 80 個基點。這主要與不利的組合和較高的清倉成本有關。這些因素被我們較高毛利率的直接面向消費者業務強勁成長的有利影響所部分抵消。

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses of $167.3 million were up only $4 million compared to last year and benefited from disciplined discretionary spending and lower incentive compensation costs.

調整後的銷售、一般和管理費用為 1.673 億美元，與去年相比僅增加了 400 萬美元，這得益於嚴格的可自由支配支出和較低的激勵薪酬成本。

The second quarter effective tax rate was 19.4% versus 18.1% in the prior year. The increase is due primarily to the favorable impact from discretionary pension contributions made last year.

第二季有效稅率為 19.4%，而上年同期為 18.1%。這一增長主要是由於去年酌情退休金繳款的有利影響。

Second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.52 exceeded our expectations. Reported earnings per share were $0.45, and included the impact of environmental-related costs and certain business development expenses. We generated $136 million in cash from operations during the quarter.

第二季調整後攤薄每股收益為 0.52 美元，超出了我們的預期。報告的每股收益為 0.45 美元，其中包括環境相關成本和某些業務開發費用的影響。本季我們從營運中產生了 1.36 億美元的現金。

Our earnings performance and strong cash flow reflect our disciplined operating model and our ability to deliver solid bottom line performance even in a softer macro environment.

我們的獲利表現和強勁的現金流反映了我們嚴格的營運模式，以及我們即使在疲軟的宏觀環境下也能提供穩健的獲利績效的能力。

On a year-to-date basis, we continue to leverage our strong capital structure, we have been active with share repurchases, and made strategic capital investments to drive overall long-term shareholder return.

今年迄今，我們持續利用強大的資本結構，積極進行股票回購，並進行策略性資本投資，以推動股東的整體長期回報。

In Q2, we repurchased $104 million of our stock at an average price of approximately $29 per share, bringing our year-to-date total to $207 million. We have approximately $220 million still available under the $400 million share repurchase program that was approved earlier this year.

第二季度，我們以每股約 29 美元的平均價格回購了價值 1.04 億美元的股票，使年初至今的總額達到 2.07 億美元。根據今年稍早批准的 4 億美元股票回購計劃，我們仍有大約 2.2 億美元可用。

We have also executed strategic capital investments of approximately $30 million, including the acquisition of our Saucony Italy distributor, early funding of our China joint venture and other growth-related initiatives.

我們也執行了約 3,000 萬美元的策略資本投資，包括收購索康尼義大利經銷商、為我們的中國合資企業提供早期融資以及其他與成長相關的措施。

We ended the quarter with net debt of $695 million, which increased versus last year due mostly to our meaningful share repurchases and accelerated capital spending. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.25 billion in total liquidity, giving the company significant flexibility and capacity to invest for growth.

本季結束時，我們的淨債務為 6.95 億美元，與去年相比有所增加，這主要是由於我們有意義的股票回購和加速資本支出。本季結束時，我們的流動資金總額約為 12.5 億美元，為公司提供了巨大的靈活性和投資成長的能力。

As we discussed during our last call, we are taking a stronger inventory position on core items, this year after operating with very lean levels during March of 2018.

正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，繼 2018 年 3 月的營運水準非常精簡之後，今年我們在核心產品上採取了更強的庫存立場。

Our like-for-like inventory was up about 35% at the end of Q2 compared to last year in line with our projections and including a significant pull-forward of China-sourced production in anticipation of potential tariff exposure. In addition, we've added $10 million of inventory for new stores and the addition of our Saucony Italy distributor.

與去年相比，第二季末我們的同類庫存增加了約 35%，這與我們的預測一致，其中包括因預期潛在關稅風險而大幅增加中國採購的產量。此外，我們還為新店增加了 1000 萬美元的庫存，並增加了 Saucony 義大利經銷商。

Importantly, the quality of inventory remains very high, including an improvement in aging and backlog coverage relative to last year. We expect inventories to be up approximately 30% at the end of Q3 as we continue to pull forward core inventory in August ahead of potential tariff implementation.

重要的是，庫存品質仍然非常高，包括與去年相比，老化和積壓覆蓋率有所改善。我們預計第三季末庫存將增加約 30%，因為我們在潛在的關稅實施之前繼續將 8 月的核心庫存提前。

Our year-end inventory levels were moderate and we expect an increase of 5% to 10% including about $10 million related to new stores and the addition of Saucony Italy. Based on timing of future production, we have a strong line of sight to achieving this inventory position by year-end.

我們的年終庫存水準適中，預計將成長 5% 至 10%，其中包括與新店和 Saucony Italy 增加相關的約 1,000 萬美元。根據未來生產的時間安排，我們有強烈的目標在年底前實現這一庫存狀況。

Now, let me cover our updated outlook for the remainder of 2019. During the first half of the year, the macro environment was soft, especially in the U.S. At-once order trends were inconsistent. And we experienced some volatility in a few of our international markets. As we transition to the back half of 2019 we expect revenue and earnings performance to improve meaningfully.

現在，讓我介紹一下我們對 2019 年剩餘時間的最新展望。上半年，宏觀環境疲軟，尤其是美國一次性訂單走勢不一致。我們的一些國際市場經歷了一些波動。隨著我們進入 2019 年下半年，我們預計營收和獲利業績將顯著改善。

Our current visibility into the second half is very good and includes a good start to the third quarter, a stronger order book, excellent response to new product initiatives and positive momentum for Merrell, Sperry, Saucony and Cat.

我們目前對下半年的預見性非常好，包括第三季度的良好開局、更強勁的訂單、對新產品計劃的出色反應以及 Merrell、Sperry、Saucony 和 Cat 的積極勢頭。

We expect our e-commerce business to continue to perform on plan in the back half with growth of nearly 20%. The newly acquired Saucony Italy business and additional stores will also benefit the second half.

我們預計下半年電商業務將繼續按計畫執行，成長近20%。新收購的索康尼義大利業務和增設門市也將令下半年受益。

Offsetting these tailwinds, we are cautiously assuming ongoing volatility in our U.S. wholesale business, and projecting at-once demand in the back half of the year to be down slightly more than our first half experience.

為了抵​​銷這些不利因素，我們謹慎地假設我們的美國批發業務將持續波動，並預計今年下半年的需求量將略高於上半年的經驗。

We now expect very strong reported revenue growth in the second half of approximately 5%, in constant currency growth of 5.5%. This outlook includes approximately 10% constant currency growth in the second half from Merrell, Sperry, and Saucony on a combined basis, an encouraging trend for our 3 largest brands.

我們現在預計下半年報告的營收成長非常強勁，約為 5%，以固定匯率計算，營收成長為 5.5%。這一前景包括 Merrell、Sperry 和 Saucony 下半年約 10% 的恆定匯率成長，這對我們三大品牌來說是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。

More specifically by quarter, we expect Q3 revenue of approximately $575 million, constant currency growth of 4%. And Q4 revenue of approximately $615 million, constant currency growth of 7%. Growth accelerates in Q4 as our e-commerce and store businesses become more prominent in the quarter. Our international business strengthened, especially for EMEA and Latin America. And Sperry, Merrell and Cat deliver our new product and initiatives including strong boot offerings. Our full year revenue estimate is approximately $2.28 billion, and within our original guidance range.

更具體地說，按季度計算，我們預計第三季營收約為 5.75 億美元，按固定匯率計算成長率為 4%。第四季營收約 6.15 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 7%。隨著我們的電子商務和商店業務在本季變得更加突出，第四季的成長加速。我們的國際業務得到加強，特別是歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲業務。Sperry、Merrell 和 Cat 提供了我們的新產品和計劃，包括強大的靴子產品。我們的全年收入預計約為 22.8 億美元，在我們最初的指導範圍內。

Gross margin in Q3 is expected to be approximately 42%. And adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 13.5%, up nearly 100 basis points over last year. This improvement is expected to be offset by higher year-over-year net interest expense, and a much higher effective tax rate of approximately 21%, due to significant discretionary pension contributions made last year.

第三季毛利率預計約42%。調整後營業利益率預計約13.5%，較去年上升近100個基點。由於去年繳納了大量的可自由支配退休金，這項改善預計將被同比淨利息支出的增加以及約 21% 的高得多的有效稅率所抵消。

As a result, earnings per share in the third quarter are estimated to be $0.63. Gross margin in Q4 is expected to be approximately $0.40. And adjusted operating margin is expected to be approximately 13%, an improvement of over 200 basis points compared to last year. This improvement is expected to be offset by a higher effective tax rate of approximately 21%. As a result, adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter are estimated to be $0.67.

因此，第三季每股收益預計為 0.63 美元。第四季的毛利率預計約為 0.40 美元。調整後的營業利潤率預計約為13%，比去年提高200多個基點。這一改善預計將被約 21% 的更高有效稅率所抵消。因此，第四季度調整後每股收益預計為 0.67 美元。

For the full year, we now expect gross margin of approximately 41%, adjusted operating margin of approximately 12%, and effective tax rate of approximately 19%, and adjusted earnings per share approximately $2.28.

我們目前預計全年毛利率約為 41%，調整後營業利潤率約為 12%，有效稅率約為 19%，調整後每股收益約為 2.28 美元。

Reported diluted earnings per share are expected to be approximately $2.06. Diluted weighted average shares outstanding are now projected to be approximately 88 million shares, based on timely repurchases already executed in the first half of the year.

報告的攤薄每股收益預計約為 2.06 美元。根據今年上半年已執行的及時回購，稀釋後加權平均流通股目前預計約為 8,800 萬股。

In closing, I want to emphasize that our leadership team remains incredibly focused on executing the initiatives and activities that will accelerate growth. We continue to see meaningful progress and more success within many of our largest brands, and with our DTC platform. We will continue to operate in a diligent and disciplined manner, both in the execution of our business model and the management of our working capital to deliver consistent profit and cash flow for our shareholders.

最後，我想強調，我們的領導團隊仍然非常專注於執行將加速成長的措施和活動。我們繼續看到許多最大的品牌以及我們的 DTC 平台取得了有意義的進展和更大的成功。我們將繼續以勤勉和自律的方式運營，無論是在執行我們的業務模式還是管理我們的營運資金方面，為我們的股東帶來持續的利潤和現金流。

Thanks for your time this morning. And we will now turn the call back over to the operator.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間。現在我們將把電話轉回接線生。

We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Jim Duffy with Stifel.

我們現在將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自 Jim Duffy 和 Stifel 的對話。

A couple of questions from me. During the second quarter, obviously business softer than expectations. Can you be more specific about what was light of expectations within the brand portfolio? And then to what extent does this have impact on inventories on your books? And then, what did channel inventories look like as you go into the back half of the year, given what you suggest a sluggish sell-through trend?

我有幾個問題。第二季度，業務明顯弱於預期。您能否更具體地說明品牌組合中的預期是什麼？那麼這對你們的圖書庫存有多大影響呢？然後，考慮到您所建議的銷售趨勢低迷，進入今年下半年時通路庫存會是什麼樣子？

Yes, I'll start with the last part of your question, Jim. Obviously, we had a slow start to spring here in the U.S., weather impacted. I would say there was a build-up of seasonal product at the retail level, something we've seen. And retailers are now at work clearing some of that sandal and other seasonal product. And so things have certainly improved in June and then into July, as we've gotten into more normalized weather pattern, with consumer demand. The first part of your question?

是的，我將從你問題的最後一部分開始，吉姆。顯然，受天氣影響，美國的春天起步緩慢。我想說的是，零售層面的季節性產品增加，這是我們所看到的。零售商現在正在清理一些涼鞋和其他季節性產品。因此，隨著我們進入更正常化的天氣模式和消費者需求，情況在六月和七月肯定有所改善。你問題的第一部分？

Yes. I would say, just to clarify on the performance by, kind of, by brand, we mentioned in the prepared remarks that Merrell and Sperry, both delivered on plan for the quarter, no major surprises with Saucony and that Cat actually delivered over 25% or almost 25% growth in the quarter. The seasonal inventory issues that Blake talked about certainly impacted Chaco, even though it's one of our smaller brands it had a bigger impact on the quarter. After they got off to a decent start in the Q2, things reversed sort of midway through the quarter, and we saw that fall off.

是的。我想說，只是為了澄清按品牌的表現，我們在準備好的評論中提到，Merrell 和 Sperry 都按計劃交付了本季度的業績，Saucony 沒有出現重大意外，而且 Cat 實際上交付了超過 25%本季成長近25%。Blake 談到的季節性庫存問題肯定對 Chaco 產生了影響，儘管它是我們較小的品牌之一，但對本季的影響更大。他們在第二季度取得了不錯的開局後，情況在本季度中期發生了逆轉，我們看到了這種下滑。

Wolverine brand was the other brand that came short of expectations in the quarter, a little bit having to do with just some at-once demand trends, and they continue to work through a transition out of their Sears business as you know, so that had a little bit more of an impact in the quarter and will in the back half of the year more than we had originally expected.

Wolverine 品牌是本季另一個未達到預期的品牌，這與一些一次性需求趨勢有關，正如您所知，他們繼續努力從 Sears 業務中過渡出來，因此本季度的影響會更大一些，下半年的影響也會比我們最初的預期更大。

So some other small changes in our smaller brands, frankly, in the quarter Jim, but those were the big issues, I would say. Just add on to the channel inventory point, and you'll see that in the first half of the year our gross margins were under a little bit of pressure. I think that our brands did a nice job of monitoring inventories both hours in retail inventories to make sure that, that pipeline was being cleaned out. We certainly didn't force product in, into the retail pipeline. And some of our promotional dollars and markdown spend in the second quarter in particular were really intended to make sure that that seasonal product kind of cleared through to give us a clean runway for the back half of the year. So I think we feel good about that approach and about the quality of the inventory that we have going forward.

坦白說，吉姆，我們的小品牌在本季發生了一些其他小變化，但我想說，這些都是大問題。再加上通路庫存點，你會發現上半年我們的毛利率是有點壓力的。我認為我們的品牌在兩個小時的零售庫存監控方面做得很好，以確保管道被清理乾淨。我們當然沒有強迫產品進入零售通路。我們在第二季度的一些促銷資金和降價支出實際上是為了確保季節性產品得到清理，為我們下半年提供一個乾淨的跑道。因此，我認為我們對這種方法以及我們未來的庫存品質感到滿意。

And then if I may, just a question on the tariffs. You guys spoke in pay range terms. I recognize that's an improvement in the amount of volume coming from China sourcing. But it still doesn't seem insignificant in terms of number of millions of pairs. Can you speak in terms -- in dollar terms? And how should we think about the timing of that product coming in? And the actual tariffs hitting the P&L?

如果可以的話，我想問一個關於關稅的問題。你們談論的是薪資範圍。我認識到來自中國的採購量有所改善。但就數百萬對的數量而言，這似乎仍然不小。你能用美元來說話嗎？我們該如何考慮該產品上市的時間？實際關稅影響損益表嗎？

Yes. I would say, with respect to the -- and these are current estimates. The 3.5 million pair that we expect to get to U.S. from China in the last 4 months of the year, if we multiplied -- used our FOB and multiplied it times 10% without any additional remedial action, concessions from the factory, price increases or any number of actions we could take, we see something in the gross area of maybe $5 million.

是的。我想說的是，這些都是目前的估計。我們預計今年最後 4 個月從中國運往美國的 350 萬雙鞋，如果我們乘以我們的 FOB，將其乘以 10%，而無需採取任何額外的補救措施、工廠做出讓步、提價或我們可以採取任何數量的行動，我們看到總面積可能達到500 萬美元。

And obviously a lot of that merchandise, Jim is spring merchandise. It's coming in, in the fourth quarter. And just -- we spoke pretty specifically about our mitigation activities, pulling forward production, not only production, but obviously pulling in inventory as fast as we could, not knowing exactly when or if these tariffs will be imposed, but taking that cue and moving pretty aggressively.

顯然，吉姆的許多商品都是春季商品。它即將在第四季度推出。只是 - 我們非常具體地談到了我們的緩解活動，拉動生產，不僅是生產，而且顯然是盡可能快地拉動庫存，不知道何時或是否會徵收這些關稅，但抓住這一線索並採取行動相當激進。

And so for this year, the impact -- even though we didn't put anything particularly specific in our guidance, because nothing's been imposed yet, and we don't necessarily want to reflect something that could change within the next couple of weeks. The impact this year would be very minimal just based on the inventory position we have and the timing and the product that's coming in late in the year, which is mostly for next year sales.

因此，今年的影響 - 儘管我們沒有在我們的指導中提出任何特別具體的內容，因為尚未實施任何措施，而且我們不一定希望反映未來幾週內可能發生變化的事情。僅根據我們現有的庫存狀況以及今年稍後推出的時間和產品（主要用於明年的銷售），今年的影響將非常小。

And as it relates to next year, I think the numbers that Blake quoted, again, it's a significant decrease from where we've been over the last, even 18, 24 months. I think the improvement there, and now the fact that we have visibility to the specific product that might be exposed to tariffs costs in the future. We will have a much more specific mitigation strategy around pricing and other things that we can do to mitigate the impact. So, really difficult and not necessarily -- it's probably premature to even suggest what the impact would be next year. But I think, based on Blake's comments and kind of how we feel about it, we feel like we have it well in hand and have plenty of time to act accordingly to mitigate any cost impact for next year.

就明年而言，我認為布萊克引用的數字與過去（甚至 18、24 個月）相比顯著下降。我認為那裡有所改善，現在我們可以了解未來可能面臨關稅成本的特定產品。我們將針對定價和其他可以採取的措施制定更具體的緩解策略，以減輕影響。所以，確實很困難，而且不一定——現在就提出明年的影響可能還為時過早。但我認為，根據布萊克的評論和我們對此的感受，我們覺得我們已經掌握了一切，並且有足夠的時間採取相應行動，以減輕明年的成本影響。

Just Jim, there's another point of reference our pay range -- expected pay range next year will be about 25% or less than what it was just as we look back to just 2014. So that gives you some idea, some of our mitigation efforts.

吉姆，我們的薪資範圍還有另一個參考點——明年的預期薪資範圍將比 2014 年的水平低約 25% 或更少。這給了你一些想法，我們的一些緩解措施。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Svezia with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Svezia 和 Wedbush 的對話。

I guess the first one, I just want to step back for one moment. And as you think about sort of how the first half has played out, sort of a little short on revenues and the guidance you've given for the back half implying 5% or so continual growth. Just what level of confidence you may walk through that a little bit more specifically, in terms of hitting that. I guess, more specifically, could you give or talk to what backlog number or backlog numbers relative to your revenue growth expectations for Sperry or for Merrell or for Saucony ex-Italy, just so we have greater confidence that the revenue guidance that you're giving is achievable just based on what's happened in the first half of the year? Any color around that start at least would be helpful.

我想是第一個，我只想退後一步。當你思考上半年的表現時，你會發現收入有點不足，而且你為下半年給予的指導意味著 5% 左右的持續成長。更具體地說，就擊中目標而言，您可以有多大程度的信心。我想，更具體地說，您能否給出或談論與您對Sperry 或Merrell 或Saucony ex-Italy 的收入增長預期相關的積壓訂單數量或積壓訂單數量，以便我們對您的收入指導更有信心僅根據上半年發生的事情就可以實現捐贈嗎？至少圍繞該開始的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure, Chris. I mean we don't usually give backlog numbers in that -- at that level of detail. But I can say that our, we've looked at that in quite detailed brand-by-brand. Our second half backlog is probably the strongest expense in 5 or more years at the present time, so fundamentally, we have a lot of confidence in our backlog and in what it's going to deliver on the second half.

當然，克里斯。我的意思是，我們通常不會提供如此詳細的積壓訂單數量。但我可以說，我們已經非常詳細地逐一品牌地研究了這一點。我們下半年的積壓訂單可能是目前五年或更長時間以來最強勁的支出，因此從根本上來說，我們對我們的積壓訂單以及下半年的交付成果充滿信心。

Sperry, in particular has a very strong backlog, a lot of it tied to its pretty diverse boot offering. But Merrell's backlog is also strong and we're seeing some good order trends across the portfolio at the time.

尤其是 Sperry，其積壓訂單非常多，其中很大一部分與其相當多樣化的靴子產品有關。但梅雷爾的積壓訂單也很強勁，我們當時在整個產品組合中看到了一些良好的訂單趨勢。

Again, we've taken a little bit of a conservative view when it comes to at-once trend. So we looked at-once trends in the first half were frankly volatile and you could see it from the overall U.S. industry trends up 1 month down 1 month, back to flat another month. And, at-once trends were volatile in the first half. Sometimes for no apparent reason, given the strong sell-throughs we experienced. But we've taken a conservative approach to the second half and are actually, in our numbers, modeling at-once to be slightly worse than it was in the first half.

同樣，當談到一次性趨勢時，我們採取了一點保守的觀點。因此，我們曾經看過上半年的趨勢，坦白說是波動性的，從美國整體產業趨勢可以看出，一個月上漲一個月下跌，一個月又回到持平。而且，上半年的趨勢一度不穩定。考慮到我們經歷的強勁銷售，有時沒有明顯的原因。但我們對下半年採取了保守的方法，實際上，從我們的數據來看，建模結果比上半年略差。

Yes, I think that's where -- that's where the most of the first half shortfall came from Chris, right. At the end of the day, I think our visibility into the business for each quarter was good. The backlog was solid and our at-once -- while that -- while our at-once expectations weren't necessarily aggressive, the outcome was obviously worse than we projected. So, I think that approach is sound. I think the other things in addition to the backlog numbers that Blake talked about, we have -- we'll have in total in the back half of the year, 20 new stores. We'll have addition of stock in Italy, which is about a $14 million or $15 million lift in the back half of the year.

是的，我認為這就是上半場大部分不足來自克里斯的地方，對吧。歸根結底，我認為我們對每個季度業務的了解都很好。積壓工作很穩定，我們的一次性預期不一定激進，但結果顯然比我們預期的還要糟糕。所以，我認為這種方法是合理的。我認為除了布萊克談到的積壓訂單數量之外，我們還有——今年下半年我們總共將擁有 20 家新店。我們將增加義大利的庫存，今年下半年將增加約 1,400 萬美元或 1,500 萬美元。

Our e-commerce growth continues. And so, as we've talked about all along, obviously, that reflected in the backlog, but 25% growth in the first half, that will taper down a little bit in the back half, because we're going up against much stronger comps in the prior year, but up still at least 20% in the back half. So, I think those other areas of growth and opportunity are really important. And I would also emphasize the fact that especially for EMEA and Latin America in Q4, we had some really rough results in 2018. So the comparisons for our international business in Q4 are quite a bit easier. And we'll see high-teens growth in the international business in Q4. So, just at a high level, that should round out some of the way we're thinking about back half accelerated growth and the level of confidence we have there.

我們的電子商務持續成長。因此，正如我們一直以來所討論的，顯然，這反映在積壓中，但上半年增長了 25％，下半年增長將逐漸減少，因為我們面臨著更強大的對手與上一年相比，但下半年仍至少成長20%。因此，我認為其他領域的成長和機會非常重要。我還要強調一個事實，特別是在第四季的歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲，我們在 2018 年取得了一些非常粗糙的結果。因此，我們第四季度的國際業務的比較要容易得多。我們將在第四季度看到國際業務的高速成長。因此，從高水準來看，這應該會完善我們對下半年加速成長和我們在那裡的信心程度的一些思考方式。

And just a follow-up on that, just from the backlog perspective, if we look at something like Sperry for example, I guess I would -- the backlog is an access to the revenue guidance that you've given, #1, correct me if I'm wrong. And then I guess, how are you thinking about, I mean you've talked about reorders and you're taking a more conservative view, but how you're thinking about cancellation relative to that backlog and the revenue outlook?

只是從積壓的角度來看，如果我們看看像斯佩里這樣的東西，我想我會——積壓是對你給出的收入指導的訪問，#1，正確如果我錯了。然後我想，你是如何考慮的，我的意思是你已經談到了重新訂購並且你採取了更保守的觀點，但是你如何考慮相對於積壓和收入前景的取消？

Yes when we talk about at-once, we include cancellation assumptions in there too. Maybe a broader way to think about it is kind of what do we think our replenishment level will be combining a cancellation experience and at-once experience. And so, those are both being kind of reflected here in a more conservative way in the back half. More conservative, even than what we saw in the first half when the weather was [cloudy] and all that other stuff that impacted some of our seasonal businesses. So, I think that's the way to think about it.

是的，當我們談論一次性時，我們也將取消假設包含在內。也許更廣泛的思考方式是我們認為我們的補貨水準將結合取消體驗和一次性體驗。因此，這些都在後半部分以更保守的方式反映出來。甚至比我們在上半年看到的天氣[多雲]以及影響我們一些季節性業務的所有其他因素更加保守。所以，我認為這就是思考這個問題的方式。

Again, we don't give backlog by brand. But I think the, if I was to kind of prioritize the level of confidence we have, the level of demand we have on boots, lifestyle boots in the various categories including a growing men's boot business for Sperry this year is very high.

再次強調，我們不會以品牌提供積壓訂單。但我認為，如果我要優先考慮我們的信心水平，那麼我們對靴子、各種類別的生活方式靴子的需求水平非常高，包括今年 Sperry 不斷增長的男士靴子業務。

I would say also Chris, with respect to Sperry, the early indications we have from the marketplace, the Nordstrom sale et cetera, the few we have although very early are all strong in the boot category for Sperry, all very positive.

我還要說克里斯，關於斯佩里，我們從市場、諾德斯特龍促銷等方面得到的早期跡象，雖然很早，但我們在斯佩里的靴子類別中都表現強勁，都非常積極。

Final thing for me just on that capital -- just kind of capital allocation you do that, you've bought pack a lot of stock, just curious I know you have given a share account for the year, just what do you -- how are you thinking about stock price really to buy back additional stock relative to the guidance here with no additional buyback in factor, but...

對我來說最後一件事就是關於資本——只是一種資本分配，你這樣做，你買了很多股票，只是好奇我知道你已經提供了今年的股票帳戶，你做什麼——如何你是否正在考慮股價真的是相對於此處的指導回購額外的股票，而沒有額外的回購因素，但是...

Yes, we've proven to be pretty active there in the first half and obviously have capacity and flexibility to do more of that in the back year -- back half of the year. Our share count guidance doesn't reflect that. But we certainly don't intend to change our approach.

是的，事實證明，我們上半年在這方面非常活躍，並且顯然有能力和靈活性在後年（後半年）做更多的事情。我們的股數指引並未反映這一點。但我們當然不打算改變我們的方法。

Next question comes from the line of Jonathan Komp with Baird.

下一個問題來自喬納森·康普（Jonathan Komp）和貝爾德（Baird）的對話。

Wanted to follow up first just on the second half revenue projection. I guess when you look at the big 3 brands guiding up 10%. Curious how you're thinking about the sustainability of that, like when you look at the projection, how much is kind of unique factors, whether it's cycling, low inventories of last year, some of the international comments you just had? And how much of it is sustainable as you look beyond the second half? And I guess relatedly with your big 3 up so strong, does that change your view at all in terms of, kind of the optimization of the current portfolio of brands?

想先跟進下半年的收入預測。我想當你看看三大品牌指導上漲 10% 時。很好奇您如何考慮其可持續性，例如當您查看預測時，有多少獨特因素，是否是循環，去年的低庫存，以及您剛剛收到的一些國際評論？當你展望下半年之後，其中有多少是永續的？我想，與您的三大品牌如此強勁相關，這是否會改變您對當前品牌組合優化的看法？

Yes, I would say, Jonathan that, as we take a view on organic growth into the future, we're still firmly fixed on mid-single-digit growth. Certainly, we would expect that and would try and achieve at that level at a minimum for our largest brands. And these were the brands that were the early adopters with the brand growth model and some of the other skills, tools and processes that we developed through our transformation initiative.

是的，喬納森，我想說的是，當我們展望未來的有機成長時，我們仍然堅定地保持中個位數成長。當然，我們會期望這一點，並會努力為我們最大的品牌至少實現這一水平。這些品牌是品牌成長模型以及我們透過轉型計畫開發的其他一些技能、工具和流程的早期採用者。

We're in the process of taking some of those tools and skill sets to our smaller brands, but they're clearly a half a lap behind Merrell, Sperry, Saucony and Keds in that regard. And what was the second part of your question?

我們正在將其中一些工具和技能應用到我們的小品牌中，但在這方面它們顯然落後 Merrell、Sperry、Saucony 和 Keds 半圈。你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just to -- equity...

只是為了——公平…

Yes. When we look forward to the future, we would look to -- for these brands to deliver mid-single-digit growth next year or better.

是的。當我們展望未來時，我們希望這些品牌明年或更好地實現中個位數成長。

And the second half, so maybe, like, do you think you're kind of at the underlying mid-single-digit growth rate in the second half, and then some of the unique factors are additive to that?

下半年，也許，你認為下半年的成長率是中等個位數，然後一些獨特的因素會增加這一點？

Yes. We feel very confident about the second half. We feel like we're there. We understand there's things outside of our control like Brexit, currency and a few other challenges, but we've been pretty nimble at responding to those challenges, those global challenges as they arise. So we think, we're going -- in the back half of the year, we think all regions in the world are going to be positive for the year in terms of growth. We know that Asia-Pacific is going to be challenged a little bit in Q4 because of some bankruptcies in Korea, but we feel very confident right now as we look ahead and the future is pretty bright for most of the larger brands.

是的。我們對下半年充滿信心。我們感覺自己就在那裡。我們知道有些事情是我們無法控制的，例如英國脫歐、貨幣和其他一些挑戰，但我們在應對這些挑戰、這些全球挑戰時非常靈活。因此，我們認為，在今年下半年，我們認為世界所有地區今年都將出現正面的成長。我們知道，由於韓國的一些破產，亞太地區將在第四季度面臨一些挑戰，但我們現在非常有信心，因為我們展望未來，大多數大型品牌的未來都非常光明。

Yes, I think the portfolio mix, the different challenges that we have there, we are going to have them every year. It's just the way it is. And especially with a 12 brand portfolio, you have some brands in some regions that win and some that don't, every quarter. So I think the fact that we've kind of transitioned out of a first half where we had some negative surprises around some seasonal merchandise, a strengthening Sperry business going into next year, not just in the boot categories but in other categories. And obviously, Merrell really frankly, accelerating as we move into next year as well. So I think getting the results from the first half behind us, Jon, I think the second half is more reflective of kind of how we see the business going forward.

是的，我認為投資組合，我們面臨的不同挑戰，我們每年都會遇到。事情就是這樣。尤其是在 12 個品牌組合中，每季都有一些品牌在某些地區獲勝，而有些則失敗。因此，我認為事實上我們已經擺脫了上半年的一些季節性商品帶來的負面驚喜，明年 Sperry 業務將會加強，不僅在靴子類別，而且在其他類別。顯然，梅雷爾非常坦率地說，隨著我們進入明年，我們也會加速。所以我認為上半場的結果在我們身後，喬恩，我認為下半場更能反映我們如何看待未來的業務。

I would say lastly, we're very happy with our brand -- configuration of our brand portfolio right now. And we wouldn't have any near-term plans to trim our portfolio.

最後我想說，我們對我們的品牌—目前我們品牌組合的配置非常滿意。我們不會有任何短期計劃來削減我們的投資組合。

Our next question comes from the line of Ed Yruma of KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Ed Yruma。

I guess first just on the order book again, how much did the uptake in boots is driven by the saltwater boot? Kind of how big of the portfolio is that? I know that's been a great product story. But just trying to understand where that is in its lifecycle. And then second, obviously a nice job diversifying away from China. We've heard complaints from others that as you move away you see other impacts particularly on the cost of goods side. Have you started to see higher costs and does that change how you think about kind of the medium-term gross margin opportunity?

我想首先在訂單簿上，靴子的吸收有多少是由鹹水靴驅動的？投資組合有多大？我知道這是一個很棒的產品故事。但只是想了解它在其生命週期中的位置。其次，遠離中國的多元化顯然是一個不錯的工作。我們聽到其他人的抱怨，當您搬走時，您會看到其他影響，特別是在商品成本方面。您是否開始看到成本上升，這是否會改變您對中期毛利率機會的看法？

Yes, first of all with respect to the Sperry saltwater boot. The Sperry boot offering in this fall is going to be substantially larger than just the expanded saltwater collection, having said that, it's obviously been a roaring success here in the last 3 fall seasons. We think that success is going to continue. If I was going to put a rough figure on it for the overall Sperry boot business, I'd say the expanded saltwater category is 2/3, approximately, of the overall business. The Sperry continues to expand its lifestyle and performance boot business as does Merrell and several of our other brands.

是的，首先是關於 Sperry 鹹水靴。今年秋天的 Sperry 靴子系列將比擴大的鹹水系列大得多，話雖如此，它顯然在過去 3 個秋季取得了巨大的成功。我們認為成功將會持續下去。如果我要對整個 Sperry 靴子業務做一個粗略的統計，我會說擴展的鹹水類別大約佔整個業務的 2/3。Sperry 與 Merrell 和我們的其他幾個品牌一樣，繼續擴大其生活方式和高性能靴子業務。

With respect to the migration out of China, we frankly have not seen any significant uptick in prices. In fact some of the FOB prices we've been quoted as we migrated away from China have actually been a little lower than what we were getting from China. Maybe that will change a little bit here into the future but right now it's been steady on. I think you do have to remember though that much of the migration has gone to our factory groups that were already using in China, that also have factories outside of China. So in that respect for us at least it's been maybe an easier transition than some other folks in the industry.

關於從中國遷出的人口，坦白說，我們沒有看到價格有任何顯著上漲。事實上，當我們離開中國時，我們所報的一些離岸價格實際上比我們從中國得到的價格要低一些。也許未來這種情況會發生一些變化，但現在它一直保持穩定。我認為你必須記住，儘管大部分遷移已經流向了我們已經在中國使用的工廠集團，這些工廠集團也在中國境外設有工廠。因此，至少在這方面，對我們來說，這可能比業內其他一些人更容易過渡。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sam Poser 與 Susquehanna 的對話。

This is [Roan] for Sam. So you guys mentioned Saucony, the Italy acquisition that's going to be $14 million to $15 million topline lift that's in FY'19 correct?

這是山姆的[羅恩]。你們提到了 Saucony，這家義大利公司的收購將在 19 財年帶來 1,400 萬至 1,500 萬美元的營收提升，對嗎？

Yes, that's in the back half guidance. It was actually a little bit of a drag in Q2, the quarter we did our acquisition.

是的，這在後半部分指導中。實際上，在我們進行收購的第二季度，這確實有點拖累。

And is that business, is that margin accretive from an operating margin perspective?

從營業利益率的角度來看，這項業務的利潤率是否會增加？

Yes.

是的。

It is both from a gross margin, gross profit standpoint and in operating margins.

這既是從毛利率、毛利的角度來看，也是從營業利益率的角度來看。

Remember this is a distributor that we operated on a fairly lean margin topline basis in the past. And obviously, now is operating as a subsidiary business with full margin and a very healthy operating margin.

請記住，我們過去是在利潤率相當低的基礎上經營這家分銷商的。顯然，現在作為子公司運營，利潤豐厚，運營利潤率非常健康。

And can you guys just discuss a little bit, I know you are opening some new stores. Can you just discuss the performance of those newly opened stores and just comps in general for your sandal stores?

你們能稍微討論一下嗎，我知道你們要開一些新店。您能否簡單討論一下這些新開店的業績以及您涼鞋店的整體情況？

As far as the performance is concerned many of the stores that we are referencing in the back half guidance are not opened yet. So we did open 9 stores in the second quarter mostly Sperry outlet stores in very strategic outlet locations that we felt were right for the brand. But I would say, early reads on those stores have been very good. And it's a little bit too early to call it either way but we like to start and we see a -- we've taken a similar approach for both Sperry and Merrell outlets stores in the back half of the year. Our expectations there are pretty modest as it relates to store openings but we are excited about the early reads on the 9 stores we've already opened.

就業成績而言，我們在後半部分指導中提到的許多商店尚未開業。因此，我們在第二季度開設了 9 家商店，其中大部分是 Sperry 直銷店，位於我們認為非常適合品牌的策略性直銷地點。但我想說，早期對這些商店的閱讀非常好。無論怎樣稱呼它都有點太早了，但我們喜歡開始，我們看到 - 我們在今年下半年對 Sperry 和 Merrell 直銷店採取了類似的方法。由於與新店開業相關，我們的期望相當溫和，但我們對已經開設的 9 家商店的早期了解感到興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。

This is Eric calling for Erinn this morning. First, I was just curious, in an average year how much of your second half business is at-once and is there a way to quantify what you are planning it to be this year if you can.

我是艾瑞克今天早上打電話給艾琳。首先，我只是很好奇，平均每年你的下半年業務有多少是一次性的，如果可以的話，有沒有辦法量化你今年的計劃。

Yes, we don't give that level of detail. It's so dynamic right, every brand is quite a bit different and there is -- the different parts of our international business grow, ebb and flow, if you will, that changes. But obviously Q3 is much more of a kind of a futures oriented selling quarter for us. And so the demand there is more around future orders. And when we talked about being more conservative, if you will, or cautious around our at-once demand, it really more impacts the fourth quarter, which is more reliant on reorders. So not a significant increase necessarily in Q4 but certainly more impacted by sell-through trends, seasonal implications around weather or anything else. So that's where we put a little bit more of our conservatism in the outlook for the back half of the year.

是的，我們不會提供那麼詳細的資訊。它是如此充滿活力，每個品牌都有很大的不同，而且我們國際業務的不同部分會成長、潮起潮落，如果你願意的話，這種情況會改變。但顯然，第三季對我們來說更像是以期貨為導向的銷售季度。因此，未來訂單的需求更多。當我們談到更加保守（如果你願意的話），或者對我們的一次性需求持謹慎態度時，它確實對第四季度產生了更大的影響，因為第四季度更依賴再訂單。因此，第四季度不一定會有顯著增長，但肯定更多地受到銷售趨勢、天氣或其他因素的季節性影響的影響。因此，我們對今年下半年的前景更加保守。

That's helpful. And then on Chaco, I know it's little softer again in Q2. We're seeing some digital promotions, fairly aggressive here of late. We are just curious if you can provide any more context on what's going on there? And then how you are planning that business for the full year or maybe compared to how you were, say, 90 days ago?

這很有幫助。然後在 Chaco 上，我知道第二季的情況再次變得更加疲軟。我們看到一些數位促銷活動，最近相當激進。我們只是好奇您能否提供更多關於那裡發生的事情的背景資訊？然後，您如何規劃全年業務，或與 90 天前相比？

Yes, Chaco primarily a sandal brand and a premium-priced sandal brand certainly had a bit of a challenging first half to the year given the weather and the slow start to trading this year. It is seeing some off-price pressure at the moment as excess stock is cleared. They've taken some corrective actions for next year. Recall that Q1 and Q2 are really the big quarters for the Chaco business. So they've got several new collections coming to market next year that are going to be priced under $100. And they're going to certainly have more of a good, better, best product offering than they've ever had. We think that will smooth out some of the volatility we've seen in the business this year.

是的，考慮到天氣和今年貿易開局緩慢，Chaco 主要是一個涼鞋品牌和一個高價涼鞋品牌，今年上半年肯定遇到了一些挑戰。由於過剩庫存被清理，目前正面臨一些降價壓力。他們已經為明年採取了一些糾正措施。回想一下，第一季和第二季確實是 Chaco 業務的重要季度。因此，他們明年將推出多個新系列，價格將低於 100 美元。他們肯定會提供比以往更多、更好、最好的產品。我們認為這將消除今年我們在業務中看到的一些波動。

I would say too, they did have some of that product this year. I would say not enough obviously to offset the challenges with these sandals but where they did have products in those price points for new offerings, the sell-in and sell-through and the success online was very strong. So I think that's a good indication of the opportunity for that category or that expansion of different categories into next year.

我也想說，他們今年確實有一些這樣的產品。我想說的是，這還不足以明顯地抵消這些涼鞋的挑戰，但如果他們確實有新產品的這些價位的產品，銷售和銷售以及網上的成功都非常強勁。因此，我認為這很好地表明了該類別的機會或不同類別擴展到明年的機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Licero with Telsey Advisory.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory 的 Ross Licero。

Just wanted to get a little bit more color on the gross margin guidance for the back half of the year, what's driving the lower outlook?

只是想對今年下半年的毛利率指引有更多的了解，是什麼導致了前景的下調？

Well, I think, for us the gross margins are going to expand nicely in the back half of the year. The overall, I think, pressure in the first half was a little bit more difficult. And that's where I think the overall guide for the year brings our margin rate kind of in line with last year kind of flattish the last year. But we're still seeing nice expansion in gross margin in both Q3 and Q4. We've got much of the promotional and sort of inventory risks reserved for or already experienced in the first half of the year. We are going to see that improve in the back half. Sperry, with all the momentum we have there and the strong growth that we are going to see in the back half of the year, their boot business is very profitable, high-margins. And that's good to see. Our gross margin for stores and e-commerce obviously, are higher than our wholesale margins. And that will become a bigger part of our overall business in the back half of the year.

嗯，我認為，對我們來說，毛利率將在今年下半年大幅成長。總的來說，我認為上半場的壓力有點困難。這就是我認為今年的總體指南使我們的利潤率與去年持平的原因。但我們仍然看到第三季和第四季毛利率的良好擴張。我們已經在今年上半年保留或已經經歷了許多促銷和庫存風險。我們將看到後半場的情況有所改善。Sperry，憑藉我們在那裡擁有的所有動力以及我們將在今年下半年看到的強勁增長，他們的靴子業務非常有利可圖，利潤率很高。很高興看到這一點。顯然，我們商店和電子商務的毛利率高於批發利潤率。這將成為我們下半年整體業務的更大組成部分。

The Chaco business, frankly, the headwinds are -- that we just talked about with respect to Chaco, all of that really isolated in the first half of the year. So we saw some gross margin pressures in H1, inventory, promotional, some of the things that we talked about to make sure the channel was clean. We did take some aggressive approaches to move through and try to drive some at-once demand, but also to move through some inventory. We see that being behind us now, and with stronger results expected and projected for the back half of the year based on those factors.

坦白說，Chaco 業務的逆風是——我們剛剛談到了 Chaco，所有這些在今年上半年都非常孤立。因此，我們在上半年看到了一些毛利率壓力，庫存，促銷，以及我們談論的一些確保管道乾淨的事情。我們確實採取了一些積極的方法來轉移並嘗試立即推動一些需求，但也轉移了一些庫存。我們看到這種情況現在已經過去了，根據這些因素，預計今年下半年的業績將更加強勁。

So from a gross margin perspective, really no change to the back half in terms of the promotional environment?

那麼從毛利率來看，下半年促銷環境真的沒有改變嗎？

Right.

正確的。

Yes. We're still being cautious there, just like we were with that once in replenishment demand. We're being somewhat cautious on that side of the business. So a little bit of a reduction, if you will, in our mix expectations and fill-ins. Our fill-in orders are always the highest margin wholesale orders we get, because it's merchandise coming out of our inventory, and we tend to get the highest margin there. So as we drive that down as a percentage of our mix, it has a slight impact on gross margins, but those are already reflected in the outlook, which is still very strong.

是的。我們仍然保持謹慎態度，就像我們在補貨需求時一樣。我們在這方面的業務有些謹慎。所以，如果你願意的話，我們的混合期望和填充內容會減少一點。我們的填充訂單始終是我們獲得的利潤最高的批發訂單，因為它是從我們的庫存中取出的商品，而我們往往在那裡獲得最高的利潤。因此，當我們降低其在我們組合中的百分比時，它會對毛利率產生輕微影響，但這些已經反映在前景中，前景仍然非常強勁。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kawamoto with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Kawamoto 和 D.A.戴維森。

Thanks for taking my question. First, just (inaudible) Merrell, I think on the last call you talked about an online retailer, maybe overstepping, you needed to take some brand protection actions, have those issues been worked through?

感謝您提出我的問題。首先，（聽不清楚）梅雷爾，我想在上次通話中您談到了一家在線零售商，也許有些過分，您需要採取一些品牌保護行動，這些問題是否已得到解決？

In a word, yes, they have. And so we're back on expected business relationships and practices with that particular retailer.

總之，是的，他們有。因此，我們又恢復了與該特定零售商的預期業務關係和實踐。

Got it. And then just coming out about the retailer a little over a month ago. What were your takeaways from your retail partners as we enter the back half, just around your product or their expectations from you?

知道了。然後一個多月前才公開有關該零售商的資訊。當我們進入後半部分時，您從您的零售合作夥伴那裡得到了什麼，圍繞您的產品或他們對您的期望？

Yes I would say, the reaction was very positive across the range, both performance and lifestyle. So the new product offerings in the hike category, light hike category, trail running category where Merrell continues to gain share were frankly all positive. And then on the lifestyle side, the Range, the sustainable product Gridway continues to get shelf space. So really it was quite positive across the whole range.

是的，我想說，無論是性能還是生活方式，在整個範圍內的反應都是非常積極的。因此，邁瑞在遠足類別、輕度遠足類別、越野跑類別中繼續獲得份額的新產品坦率地說都是積極的。然後在生活方式方面，永續產品 Gridway Range 繼續獲得貨架空間。所以實際上，整個範圍內的情況都是非常正面的。

Our next question comes from the line of Laurent Vasilescu with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自 Laurent Vasilescu 與 Macquarie 的對話。

Thanks for taking my question. And thank you, Mike, for all the color on the third quarter and fourth quarter guidance. Based on the gross margin and operating margin metrics given, it looks like we should see some nice leverage around SG&A. What's driving that? And then for the remaining investments around the global growth agenda, which I think is about $19 million for the second half. Should we think about that $19 million equally spread between 3Q and 4Q?

感謝您提出我的問題。感謝麥克對第三季和第四季指導的所有貢獻。根據給出的毛利率和營業利潤率指標，看起來我們應該在銷售管理、行政管理方面看到一些不錯的槓桿。是什麼推動了這一點？然後是圍繞全球成長議程的剩餘投資，我認為下半年約為 1900 萬美元。我們是否應該考慮第三季和第四季平均分配的 1900 萬美元？

Yes. Essentially on that last part of your question, Laurent, yes, it's pretty well straight line through the back half of the year. I think it's important, right -- I mean, we obviously are looking at the business every month, adjusting our discretionary spending where we can. And as a corporate team here, we're obviously keeping a very close eye on that. And because we do that, I think it gives us a lot of opportunity to be proactive, and we've made some adjustments to our spending in the back half of the year. But obviously the stronger growth SG&A as a percent of revenue improves the leverage there really comes off our ability to leverage what is essentially going to be organic 5% growth in the back half of the year. And a large portion of our overall spend being on a fixed basis. So part of it is an adjustment to our planning in the back half of the year, trying to be sensitive and proactive around any revenue risk that we see in the business. And I think fundamentally, it's our operating model and our ability to leverage SG&A when we have growth like this.

是的。基本上，關於你問題的最後一部分，勞倫特，是的，今年下半年的情況相當順利。我認為這很重要，對吧——我的意思是，我們顯然每個月都會審視業務，盡可能調整我們的可自由支配支出。作為這裡的企業團隊，我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。因為我們這樣做，我認為這給了我們很多積極主動的機會，我們對下半年的支出做了一些調整。但顯然，SG&A 佔營收百分比的強勁成長提高了槓桿率，這確實削弱了我們在下半年實現 5% 有機成長的能力。我們整體支出的很大一部分是固定的。因此，其中一部分是對我們下半年的計劃進行調整，試圖對我們在業務中看到的任何收入風險保持敏感和積極主動。我認為從根本上來說，這是我們的營運模式以及當我們實現這樣的成長時我們利用銷售、管理和行政費用的能力。

And then my question is on Merrell. We've seen pretty different growth rates by quarter. Forgive me if I missed this, but when we expect high single-digit growth in 2H '19, especially with the comparers, I think they get tougher in the fourth quarter. How should we think about the growth between the third and the fourth quarter? And I know, you -- maybe just a little bit high level on that would be great.

然後我的問題是關於梅雷爾的。我們看到每個季度的成長率都有很大不同。如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒我，但是當我們預計 19 年下半年將出現高個位數增長時，尤其是與比較者相比，我認為第四季度的情況會變得更加艱難。我們該如何看待第三季和第四季的成長？我知道，你——也許在這方面稍微高一點就很好了。

Yes. I mean, for Merrell, right now, when we look at the order book and a few other factors, we're looking at high single-digit growth in Q3, and we're also looking at balanced high single-digit growth in Q4. So for Merrell, there isn't a big swing between the quarters. High single digits both quarters.

是的。我的意思是，對於梅雷爾來說，現在，當我們考慮訂單簿和其他一些因素時，我們正在考慮第三季度的高個位數增長，我們也正在考慮第四季度的平衡高個位數增長。所以對梅雷爾來說，季度之間並沒有太大的波動。兩個季度均保持高個位數。

My last question. I think in the first quarter 10-Q, the Boston Group showed a 10% decline in wholesale, but an 18% increase in DTC. How did those numbers shake out for the second quarter? And how should we think about those numbers for the third quarter and the full year?

我的最後一個問題。我認為在第一季 10 季度，波士頓集團的批發量下降了 10%，但 DTC 成長了 18%。第二季這些數字表現如何？我們應該如何看待第三季和全年的這些數字？

Yes. I think for the whole business, Laurent, we're obviously seeing accelerated growth in our DTC businesses. That's going to continue into the back half of the year, not just for the Boston Group, but for all brands, right. We had 25% DTC growth. We're adding stores. That will continue to be a bigger contributor to our overall growth at those growth levels as we go forward. And the guidance kind of reflects 20% growth in our e-commerce business in the back half of the year for our portfolio, not just Boston, and some incremental revenue coming from that the addition of new stores.

是的。Laurent，我認為對於整個業務而言，我們顯然看到了 DTC 業務的加速成長。這種情況將持續到今年下半年，不僅僅是波士頓集團，而是所有品牌，對吧。我們的 DTC 成長了 25%。我們正在增加商店。隨著我們的前進，這將繼續為我們在這些成長水平上的整體成長做出更大的貢獻。該指引反映了今年下半年我們的投資組合（不僅是波士頓）的電子商務業務成長了 20%，以及來自新店增加的一些增量收入。

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Mr. Harris, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。哈里斯先生，我現在想把發言權交還給您，請您發表結束語。

On behalf of Wolverine World Wide, I'd like to thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, our conference call replay is available on our website at wolverineworldwide.com. The replay will be available until September 7, 2019. Thank you, and good day.

我謹代表金鋼狼世界感謝您今天加入我們。請注意，我們的電話會議重播可在我們的網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。重播將持續到 2019 年 9 月 7 日。謝謝你，美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. And have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天。