Wolverine World Wide Inc (WWW) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Wolverine Worldwide First Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'll now just turn the conference over to your host, Mike Harris, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Thank you. You may begin.

歡迎參加 Wolverine Worldwide 2019 財年第一季業績電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將會議交給東道主企業財務副總裁 Mike Harris。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning and welcome to our first quarter 2019 conference call. On the call today are Blake Krueger, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President and Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we announced our financial results for the first quarter 2019. The release is available on many news sites or it can be viewed from our corporate website at wolverineworldwide.com. If you would prefer to have a copy of the news release sent to you directly, please call Francesca Filandro at 646-677-1814.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2019 年第一季電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Blake Krueger 和我們的資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Stornant。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 2019 年第一季的財務表現。新聞稿可在許多新聞網站上找到，也可以從我們的公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。如果您希望直接向您發送新聞稿副本，請致電 Francesca Filandro，電話：646-677-1814。

This morning's press release, included non-GAAP disclosures and these disclosures were reconciled with attached tables within the body of the release. Comments during today's earnings call will include some additional non-GAAP disclosures. There is a document posted on our corporate website titled WWW Q1 2019 Conference Call Supplemental Tables that will reconcile these non-GAAP disclosures to GAAP. The document is accessible under the Investor Relations tab at our corporate website wolverineworldwide.com by clicking on the Webcast link at the top of the page.

今天早上的新聞稿包括非公認會計原則披露，這些披露與新聞稿正文中的附表進行了核對。今天的財報電話會議上的評論將包括一些額外的非公認會計原則揭露。我們的公司網站上發布了一份名為 WWW Q1 2019 電話會議補充表的文件，該文件將使這些非 GAAP 揭露與 GAAP 保持一致。透過點擊頁面頂部的網路廣播鏈接，可以在我們公司網站 wolverineworldwide.com 的「投資者關係」標籤下存取該文件。

As mentioned in this morning's press release, during the first quarter, the brands that were formally part of the Wolverine Outdoor & Lifestyle Group and Wolverine Heritage Group were realigned into the newly formed Wolverine Michigan Group. All prior period figures and current year growth rates have been restated within the reconciliation table included in the press release to reflect the new group structure. During our call, we are providing adjusted financial results, which adjust for the impacts of environmental and related costs, business development-related expenses and federal income tax reform.

正如今天早上的新聞稿中所提到的，在第一季度，原來隸屬於 Wolverine Outdoor & Lifestyle Group 和 Wolverine Heritage Group 的品牌被重組為新成立的 Wolverine Michigan Group。所有前期數據和本年度成長率均已在新聞稿中的調節表中重述，以反映新的集團結構。在我們的電話會議中，我們將提供調整後的財務結果，該結果根據環境和相關成本、業務發展相關費用和聯邦所得稅改革的影響進行了調整。

I'd also like to remind you that predictions and projections made during today's conference call regarding Wolverine Worldwide and its operations are forward-looking statements under U.S. securities laws. As a result, we must caution you that as with any prediction or projection, there are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These important risk factors are identified in the Company's SEC filings and in our press releases.

我還想提醒您，今天的電話會議中有關 Wolverine Worldwide 及其營運的預測和預測屬於美國證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。因此，我們必須提醒您，與任何預測或預測一樣，有許多因素可能導致實際結果有重大差異。這些重要的風險因素已在公司向 SEC 提交的文件和我們的新聞稿中確定。

With that being said, I'd like to turn the call over to Blake Krueger.

話雖如此，我想把電話轉給布萊克·克魯格。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us. Earlier this morning, we reported first quarter revenue of $523 million with better than expected results for Merrell, Saucony, Cat and Wolverine, among other brands. Our diversified brand portfolio helped to deliver a solid revenue quarter, despite some global headwinds in a tepid quarter for the U.S. footwear market, where pairs declined 4% after 7 consecutive quarters of growth. Revenue growth for our owned e-commerce business, which now represents nearly 10% of global revenue, was robust, up 28% over the prior year. This strength help to offset some unforeseen headwinds at Sperry related to the weak quarter in U.S. footwear and a soft boat shoe market.

謝謝，麥克。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們公佈了 Merrell、Saucony、Cat 和 Wolverine 等品牌第一季收入 5.23 億美元，業績好於預期。儘管美國鞋類市場在本季表現不溫不火，在連續 7 個季度成長後下降了 4%，但我們多元化的品牌組合幫助實現了穩健的季度營收。我們自有的電子商務業務的收入成長強勁，比上一年增長了 28%，目前佔全球收入的近 10%。這項優勢有助於抵消 Sperry 因美國鞋類和軟船鞋市場疲軟季度而面臨的一些不可預見的不利因素。

We reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.49, which was above the high-end of our guidance for the quarter. During the quarter, we took steps to further develop our organization and brands to implement speed and innovation initiatives as well as the new skill sets and tools developed through our transformation work. The brands that were formally aligned with the Wolverine Outdoor & Lifestyle Group and Wolverine Heritage Group, all of which are headquartered in Michigan, were realigned into the newly-formed Wolverine Michigan Group. This new group is being led by Todd Spaletto, who previously led the Outdoor & Lifestyle Group. Todd has been an integral part of the development and implementation of the brand growth model, which is transforming our approach to growth. The Wolverine Boston Group will maintain the same brand alignment; Sperry, Saucony, Keds and our kids group, and will continue to be led by Richie Woolworth.

我們公佈的調整後攤薄每股收益為 0.49 美元，高於我們本季指引的上限。本季度，我們採取措施進一步發展我們的組織和品牌，以實施速度和創新舉措以及透過轉型工作開發的新技能組合和工具。與總部位於密西根州的 Wolverine Outdoor & Lifestyle Group 和 Wolverine Heritage Group 正式結盟的品牌已重組為新成立的 Wolverine Michigan Group。這個新小組由 Todd Spaletto 領導，他曾領導戶外與生活方式小組。托德一直是品牌成長模式開發和實施不可或缺的一部分，該模式正在改變我們的成長方式。Wolverine Boston Group 將維持相同的品牌定位； Sperry、Saucony、Keds 和我們的兒童集團，並將繼續由 Richie Woolworth 領導。

Let me quickly review the quarterly results for our brand groups and key brands. I'll then provide an update on our global growth agenda, including key 2019 investments and the continued implementation of our brand growth model. Starting with the Wolverine Michigan Group. Revenue grew 2.3% compared to the prior year and nearly 3.7% on a constant currency basis, with several brands delivering attractive growth. Merrell's results were better than expected as the brand grew in the low-single digits after adjusting for the negative impact from foreign currency. Cat had an exceptionally strong quarter, growing over 30%, and we also saw gains in the Wolverine, Harley-Davidson and HYTEST businesses. The growth in these brands was partially offset by declines in Hush Puppies, Chaco and Bates.

讓我快速回顧一下我們的品牌集團和主要品牌的季度表現。然後，我將提供有關我們全球成長議程的最新信息，包括 2019 年的關鍵投資和我們品牌成長模式的持續實施。從密西根狼獾集團開始。營收較上年成長 2.3%，以固定匯率計算成長近 3.7%，其中多個品牌實現了引人注目的成長。梅雷爾的業績好於預期，該品牌在調整外匯負面影響後實現低個位數成長。Cat 的季度表現異常強勁，成長超過 30%，我們也看到 Wolverine、Harley-Davidson 和 HYTEST 業務的成長。這些品牌的成長被 Hush Puppies、Chaco 和 Bates 的下滑部分抵消。

Merrell's better-than-expected quarterly results were driven by strength across all performance categories and excellent consumer reaction to new collections, highlighted by the Trail Glove 5, Choprock, Gridway and Range. The success of new launches is often first reflected in our DTC business, where we reached the consumer with the full power of our product and story. And we're pleased that Merrell's e-commerce grew over 30% in the quarter and stores grew at a mid-single digit same-store pace. Digital and social media momentum for Merrell was also strong, with media views, impressions and search interest all up significantly. This translated into improved sell-through at U.S. retailers during the first quarter. This broad-based strength was partially offset by the bankruptcy of an international partner and self-imposed brand protection decisions made to restrict some U.S. wholesale business. Merrell's direct-to-consumer momentum, new product pipeline and favorable backlog support our planned return to mid-single digit revenue growth in the second quarter and high-single digit growth in the second half of the year. For the full year 2019, we still expect Merrell to deliver broad-based high-single digit growth.

Merrell 優於預期的季度業績得益於所有性能類別的實力以及消費者對新系列的出色反應，特別是 Trail Glove 5、Choprock、Gridway 和 Range。新產品的成功通常首先體現在我們的 DTC 業務中，我們透過產品和故事的全部力量吸引消費者。我們很高興看到 Merrell 的電子商務在本季度增長了 30% 以上，並且商店的同店增長率為中個位數。Merrell 的數位和社群媒體勢頭也很強勁，媒體瀏覽量、印象數和搜尋興趣均顯著上升。這轉化為美國零售商第一季銷售的提高。這種廣泛的優勢被國際合作夥伴的破產以及為限制某些美國批發業務而自行實施的品牌保護決定所部分抵消。梅雷爾的直接面向消費者的勢頭、新產品線和有利的積壓訂單支持我們計劃在第二季度恢復中個位數收入增長，並在下半年恢復高個位數增長。對於 2019 年全年，我們仍然預計 Merrell 將實現廣泛的高個位數成長。

Cat had an exceptional quarter and experienced strong growth across most regions, channels and categories. Much of this success is directly related to the accelerated and rigorous implementation of our brand growth model over the last 6 months. The U.S. and [EMA] regions were very healthy for Cat. And the brand's owned e-commerce business grew over 40%. The work category grew at a double-digit rate, with the brand expanding U.S. market share in this category during the quarter. For 2019, we continue to expect high-single digit growth for Cat, driven by strength across all channels, regions and product categories.

Cat 度過了一個出色的季度，在大多數地區、通路和品類上都實現了強勁成長。這一成功很大程度上與過去 6 個月我們品牌成長模式的加速和嚴格實施直接相關。美國和 [EMA] 地區的 Cat 非常健康。該品牌自有電商業務成長超過40%。工作類別以兩位數的速度成長，該品牌在本季擴大了該類別的美國市場份額。2019 年，我們繼續預期 Cat 將在所有通路、地區和產品類別的實力推動下實現高個位數成長。

During the quarter, the Wolverine brand increased its #1 U.S. market share position in the work category, with strong demand for core offerings and new product introductions. The brand also experienced significant growth in e-commerce of over 40%. For 2019, we expect the Wolverine brand to achieve mid-single digit growth, driven by elevated marketing stories and strength in its core U.S. work category and its e-commerce business.

本季度，隨著對核心產品和新產品推出的強勁需求，Wolverine 品牌在工作類別中的美國市場份額排名第一。該品牌在電子商務領域也實現了超過 40% 的顯著成長。2019 年，我們預計 Wolverine 品牌將在行銷故事的提升以及其核心美國工作類別和電子商務業務的實力推動下實現中個位數成長。

The new Michigan Group now includes 5 brands that continue to experience meaningful success and momentum in the work category. Our overall revenue in this category increased at a mid-teens rate in the quarter, significantly outpacing the overall U.S. work footwear market. The work category is approaching 20% of our global revenue and continues to be a significant growth opportunity for the Company.

新的密西根集團現在包括 5 個品牌，這些品牌繼續在工作類別中取得有意義的成功和勢頭。本季我們在這一類別的整體收入以十幾歲左右的速度成長，大大超過了美國整體工作鞋市場。該工作類別接近我們全球收入的 20%，並且仍然是公司的重要成長機會。

Moving to the Wolverine Boston Group. Revenue for the Boston Group decreased 6.5% for the quarter versus the prior year, down 5.7% in constant currency. Sperry declined over 10%, partially offset by over 20% growth from Keds and low-single digit growth for our kids business. Saucony exceeded plan, but declined at a mid-teens rate during the quarter, as our turnaround initiatives began to take hold. Sperry's decline was primarily driven by weakness in the U.S. boat shoe category, despite the brand gaining significant market share in this category in Q1. Other areas of the Sperry business performed well, including casual footwear and the lifestyle boot category, which grew at a double-digit rate with strong sell-through at retail. In Q1, the industry experienced weak performance across traditional seasonal footwear categories, including sandals and boat shoes. We're pleased that April has brought a clear improvement in seasonal products and sell-throughs for Sperry at a variety of U.S. retailers. On a full year basis, we still expect Sperry to achieve mid-single digit growth, driven by a very strong second half for boots and continued strength of the Sperry brand with consumers.

搬到金剛狼波士頓集團。波士頓集團本季營收較上年同期下降 6.5%，以固定匯率計算下降 5.7%。Sperry 下降了 10% 以上，部分被 Keds 超過 20% 的成長和我們兒童業務的低個位數成長所抵消。索康尼超出了計劃，但隨著我們的扭虧為盈計劃開始生效，該季度的銷售額以十幾歲左右的速度下降。Sperry 的下滑主要是由於美國船鞋類別的疲軟，儘管該品牌第一季在該類別中獲得了顯著的市場份額。Sperry 業務的其他領域表現良好，包括休閒鞋類和生活風格靴類，該類別以兩位數的速度增長，零售銷售強勁。第一季度，包括涼鞋和船鞋在內的傳統季節性鞋類品類表現疲軟。我們很高興四月份為 Sperry 在美國多家零售商的季節性產品和銷售方面帶來了明顯改善。就全年而言，我們仍然預計 Sperry 將實現中個位數成長，這得益於下半年靴子市場的強勁成長以及 Sperry 品牌在消費者心中的持續強勢。

Saucony was down mid-teens in the quarter, but this performance was better than expected. Q1 softness was related to the core technical running category, primarily in the U.S. with some weakness in the EMA region. A major bright spot for the quarter was e-commerce, which delivered growth of over 80% and benefited from the implementation of elements of the brand growth model and our digital-direct offense. We expect revenue trends to significantly improve in the second quarter as new initiatives hit the market and we still see Saucony returning to growth during the second half of the year, supported by further implementation of the growth model, a strong pipeline of new product introductions, continued strong e-commerce performance and the integration of its former Italian distributor.

索康尼本季業績下滑了十幾歲左右，但這一業績好於預期。第一季的疲軟與核心技術運行類別有關，主要是在美國，EMA 區域有些疲軟。本季的一大亮點是電子商務，其成長超過 80%，這得益於品牌成長模式要素的實施和我們的數位直接進攻。我們預計，隨著新措施的推出，第二季的收入趨勢將顯著改善，並且在成長模式的進一步實施、新產品推出的強勁管道的支持下，我們仍然看到索康尼在下半年恢復成長，繼續強勁的電子商務業績以及對其前意大利經銷商的整合。

Keds was up over 20% in Q1, reflecting market share expansion in the U.S., healthy growth in several international regions and e-commerce growth of almost 40%. The core Champion product category and product collaborations helped drive this strong performance. For 2019, we expect Keds to achieve at least high-single digit growth, driven by its e-commerce business and strength in the U.S. and Asia Pacific regions.

Keds 第一季成長超過 20%，反映出美國市場份額的擴張、多個國際地區的健康成長以及電子商務近 40% 的成長。Champion 的核心產品類別和產品合作幫助推動了這一強勁業績。2019 年，在電子商務業務以及美國和亞太地區實力的推動下，我們預計 Keds 將至少實現高個位數成長。

Now let me provide an enterprise perspective and update on our global growth agenda, where we continue to make important investments across all 3 elements; one, a faster and more innovative product creation engine; two, our digital-direct offense; and three, our focused expansion of our international business. These investments in the aggregate total approximately $9 million in the quarter, with continued expectations to spend approximately $40 million for the full year. In addition, we will invest $40 million of capital to open stores and accelerate growth in our global markets, especially in our recently announced China joint venture and our acquisition of Saucony's Italian distributor just last week.

現在讓我提供一個企業視角並介紹我們的全球成長議程的最新情況，我們將繼續在所有三個要素上進行重要投資；一、更快、更創新的產品創建引擎；二、我們的數字直接進攻；三是重點拓展國際業務。本季這些投資總額約為 900 萬美元，預計全年支出約為 4,000 萬美元。此外，我們將投資 4,000 萬美元資金開設門市並加速全球市場的成長，特別是我們最近宣布的中國合資企業以及上週剛收購的 Saucony 義大利經銷商。

Our new China joint venture with Xtep International, a leading Chinese sportswear and running footwear company, will accelerate the growth for Merrell and Saucony in the critical markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau. This is a great marriage, combining the power and product expertise of these global brands with Xtep's significant regional expertise, fast supply chain and retail presence over 6,200 stores. The focus in China will be on the booming running and outdoor sectors. In addition, we are expanding direct control of our European operations by acquiring Saucony's Italian distributor to further strengthen the Company's own market presence and maximize growth opportunities for the brand. We intend to use the Italian operation as a global design hub for the brand's lifestyle product.

我們與中國領先的運動服和跑鞋公司特步國際在中國的新合資企業將加速邁樂和索康尼在中國大陸、香港和澳門等關鍵市場的成長。這是一場偉大的聯姻，將這些全球品牌的實力和產品專業知識與特步重要的區域專業知識、快速的供應鏈以及超過 6,200 家商店的零售網絡結合在一起。中國的焦點將集中在蓬勃發展的跑步和戶外產業。此外，我們還透過收購索康尼的義大利經銷商來擴大對歐洲業務的直接控制，以進一步加強公司自身的市場影響力並最大限度地提高品牌的成長機會。我們打算利用義大利工廠作為該品牌生活風格產品的全球設計中心。

Let me conclude by giving a brief update on the adoption of our brands' growth model across the portfolio. This model provides a framework to focus and drive the creative design and strategic product process for our brands. A key focus during 2019 is to ensure that all of our brands begin to execute against the strategic playbook, which has already proven to unlock growth opportunities for several of our brands. Merrell and Cat's significant progress and enhanced momentum over the last 9 months are good examples of the impact that we expected when we rolled the model out and accelerate the pace of execution. Aligning our brand group structure and leadership under the Michigan and Boston brand groups will help expedite the implementation of the model across our brand portfolio.

最後，我要簡單介紹一下我們品牌在整個產品組合中採用成長模式的最新情況。該模型提供了一個框架來專注於和推動我們品牌的創意設計和策略性產品流程。2019 年的一個重點是確保我們所有的品牌開始按照策略行動手冊執行，事實證明，這為我們的幾個品牌帶來了成長機會。Merrell 和 Cat 在過去 9 個月中取得的重大進展和增強的勢頭很好地體現了我們推出模型並加快執行速度時所預期的影響。調整密西根和波士頓品牌集團的品牌集團結構和領導力將有助於加快該模型在我們品牌組合中的實施。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Stornant, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional commentary on our first quarter financial performance, along with an updated outlook for Q2 and the full year. Mike?

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官邁克·斯托南特(Mike Stornant)，他將對我們第一季的財務業績提供更多評論，以及第二季度和全年的最新展望。麥克風？

Thanks, Blake and thank you all for joining us today. I am pleased with several areas of progress made so far this year related to our global growth agenda and total shareholder return objectives. The Company is deploying capital very effectively as evidenced by the recent announcement of our new China joint venture for Merrell and Saucony, the acquisition of our Saucony distributor in Italy and over $100 million of share buybacks executed in the first quarter. Each of these strategic actions supports our ongoing goal of consistent growth and enhanced value creation for our shareholders.

謝謝布萊克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我對今年迄今為止在我們的全球成長議程和股東總回報目標相關的幾個領域取得的進展感到高興。公司正在非常有效地部署資本，最近宣布與 Merrell 和 Saucony 建立新的中國合資企業、收購我們在義大利的 Saucony 經銷商以及第一季度執行的超過 1 億美元的股票回購證明了這一點。這些策略行動中的每一項都支持我們持續成長和為股東創造更多價值的目標。

As Blake mentioned, first quarter revenue of $523.4 million was a bit short of our original expectations due to the late start of spring and the slow start for seasonal footwear, including boat shoes. All other areas of the business were either near or better than planned. And I would like to highlight some early improvements in our global business that bode well for our performance over the balance of the year.

正如 Blake 所提到的，由於春季來得較晚以及季節性鞋類（包括船鞋）的起步緩慢，第一季收入 5.234 億美元略低於我們最初的預期。所有其他業務領域都接近或好於計劃。我想強調我們全球業務的一些早期改進，這對我們今年餘下的業績來說是個好兆頭。

Merrell and Saucony exceeded their revenue plan in Q1 and are poised to deliver further improvement starting in the second quarter. Our owned e-commerce business was a very strong growth driver in Q1, up over 28%, but the profit contribution from this channel was even stronger and improved over 70% in the quarter. We expect this earnings leverage to continue. While certain Latin America markets remain challenged and the distributor bankruptcy created some headwinds, our international business exceeded plan for the quarter, thanks to the strong brand and geographic diversification of our portfolio. Finally, in April, we saw an acceleration in seasonal footwear, with improvement in Sperry boat and Chaco sandal categories.

Merrell 和 Saucony 超出了第一季的收入計劃，並準備從第二季開始進一步改善。我們自有的電子商務業務在第一季是非常強勁的成長動力，成長了 28% 以上，但該通路的利潤貢獻更加強勁，本季成長了 70% 以上。我們預計這種獲利槓桿將持續下去。儘管某些拉丁美洲市場仍然面臨挑戰，而且分銷商破產帶來了一些阻力，但由於我們產品組合的強大品牌和地理多元化，我們的國際業務超出了本季度的計劃。最後，在四月份，我們看到季節性鞋類的銷售加速成長，Sperry 船鞋和 Chaco 涼鞋類別有所改善。

Gross margin for the quarter was 42.1%, which was down 60 basis points from the prior year. This was mostly due to product and business model mix and lower high-margin revenue due to certain bankruptcies. Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses of $163 million included $9 million of investment related to growth initiatives, but were down slightly compared to the prior year as a result of efficient expense management. Adjusted operating margin during the quarter was approximately 11% as compared to 12% in the prior year. The first quarter reported effective tax rate was 13.2% and the adjusted effective tax rate was 11.7%, due to the positive net impact from certain discrete items. First quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.49 exceeded our expectations and reported earnings per share of $0.43 included the impact of environmental-related costs, business development expenses and certain other costs. We were active with share repurchases, buying back $103.1 million of our stock in Q1, at an average price of $35.65. We have approximately $325 million still available under the recently-approved $400 million share repurchase program.

該季度毛利率為 42.1%，較上年同期下降 60 個基點。這主要是由於產品和業務模式的組合以及某些破產導致高利潤收入下降。調整後的銷售、一般和管理費用為 1.63 億美元，其中包括與成長計畫相關的 900 萬美元投資，但由於有效的費用管理，與前一年相比略有下降。本季調整後的營業利潤率約為 11%，而去年同期為 12%。由於某些離散項目的正面淨影響，第一季的有效稅率為 13.2%，調整後的有效稅率為 11.7%。第一季調整後每股收益為 0.49 美元，超出了我們的預期，報告的每股收益為 0.43 美元，其中包括環境相關成本、業務開發費用和某些其他成本的影響。我們積極進行股票回購，第一季回購了價值 1.031 億美元的股票，平均價格為 35.65 美元。根據最近批准的 4 億美元股票回購計劃，我們仍有約 3.25 億美元可用。

Transitioning to the balance sheet. After several quarters of significant inventory reductions, we have begun to make strategic investments in core inventory to position our wholesale and DTC businesses for accelerated growth. During much of 2018, we operated with a very lean inventory position that resulted in higher stock-out cancellations, some late customer deliveries and expensive airfreight costs required to chase demand. By taking a stronger inventory position on core items this year, we are already seeing meaningful improvement in customer order fill rates and we are in a better position to work with key suppliers to smooth production and minimize factory delays.

過渡到資產負債表。經過幾季的大幅庫存削減後，我們開始對核心庫存進行策略性投資，以使我們的批發和 DTC 業務加速成長。在 2018 年的大部分時間裡，我們的庫存狀況非常緊張，導致缺貨取消數量增加、一些客戶交貨延遲以及追逐需求所需的昂貴的空運成本。透過今年加強核心產品的庫存狀況，我們已經看到客戶訂單履行率顯著改善，並且我們能夠更好地與主要供應商合作，以順利生產並最大限度地減少工廠延誤。

Our inventory was up 28.7% at the end of Q1, about 7% above our plan, with the overall increase attributable to the needed investments noted above. We saw an unplanned inventory spike from Sperry, including the impact of lower Q1 revenue. Overall, we expect inventory levels to be up in Q2 and Q3, as we adjust our quarterly positions, but we still project our year-end inventory to be up only low-single digits. The stronger core inventory position during the year would essentially mitigate any potential tariff exposure for 2019.

我們的庫存在第一季末成長了 28.7%，比我們的計畫高出約 7%，整體成長歸因於上述所需的投資。我們看到 Sperry 的庫存意外激增，其中包括第一季營收下降的影響。總體而言，隨著我們調整季度頭寸，我們預計第二季和第三季的庫存水準將會上升，但我們仍然預期年終庫存只會成長低個位數。今年核心庫存狀況的增強將基本上減輕 2019 年任何潛在的關稅風險。

We ended the first quarter with gross debt of $771.3 million and cash of $80.6 million. Total gross debt increased approximately $200 million from the end of 2018, reflecting the use to funds for share repurchases and seasonal working capital needs. The Company has significant flexibility to invest in organic growth, return capital to shareholders and execute strategic acquisitions. We had total liquidity of approximately $1.25 billion at quarter-end and we expect to add meaningful additional capacity into the future.

第一季結束時，我們的總債務為 7.713 億美元，現金為 8,060 萬美元。總債務較 2018 年底增加約 2 億美元，反映了用於股票回購和季節性營運資金需求的資金。該公司在投資有機成長、向股東返還資本和執行策略收購方面具有很大的靈活性。截至季末，我們的流動資金總額約為 12.5 億美元，我們預計未來將增加有意義的額外產能。

Now let me cover our updated outlook for the remainder of 2019. We still expect 2019 full year revenue to be in the range of $2.28 billion to $2.33 billion, representing growth of 3% at the midpoint of the range. The acquisition of our Saucony distributor and the addition of new Sperry and Merrell outlet stores are expected to deliver approximately $25 million to $30 million of incremental revenue in the second half of the year. These assumptions were included in our previous full-year revenue guidance.

現在讓我介紹一下我們對 2019 年剩餘時間的最新展望。我們仍預期 2019 年全年營收將在 22.8 億美元至 23.3 億美元之間，即該區間中位數成長 3%。收購 Saucony 經銷商以及新增 Sperry 和 Merrell 直銷店預計將在今年下半年帶來約 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元的增量收入。這些假設已包含在我們先前的全年收入指引中。

Our owned e-commerce business remains our fastest growing channel and is a significant source of full-year growth. Our international business will return to growth in Q2 and accelerate in the back half of the year as we experience easier year-over-year comparisons and softer currency headwinds. We are projecting modest and achievable low-single digit growth for our U.S. wholesale business for the remainder of the year, including a very strong second half increase for the Sperry lifestyle boot business.

我們自有的電子商務業務仍然是我們成長最快的管道，也是全年成長的重要來源。我們的國際業務將在第二季度恢復成長，並在今年下半年加速成長，因為我們經歷了更輕鬆的同比比較和更溫和的貨幣阻力。我們預計今年剩餘時間內我們的美國批發業務將實現適度且可實現的低個位數成長，其中包括 Sperry 生活靴業務下半年的強勁成長。

Full-year gross margin is expected to expand by 45 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance range of 41.3% to 41.8%, unchanged from our original outlook. We expect significant gross margin expansion in the back half of the year due to a stronger direct-to-consumer mix, including e-commerce growth and new stores, favorable product costs and the acquisition of our Saucony Italy distributor, which operates with high gross margin. Adjusted operating margin is still expected to be in the range of 12.2% to 12.6%, including investing up to $40 million in growth initiatives to support the Company's global growth agenda. Reported operating margin is expected to be approximately 11.3% to 11.6%.

預計全年毛利率將擴大 45 個基點，達到我們指導範圍 41.3% 至 41.8% 的中點，與我們最初的預期保持不變。我們預計，由於直接面向消費者的組合更加強勁，包括電子商務成長和新店、有利的產品成本以及收購我們毛利率較高的索康尼意大利經銷商，我們預計今年下半年毛利率將大幅增長利潤。調整後的營業利潤率預計仍將在 12.2% 至 12.6% 的範圍內，其中包括投資高達 4,000 萬美元的成長計劃，以支持公司的全球成長議程。報告的營業利潤率預計約為 11.3% 至 11.6%。

We now expect 2019 net interest and other expenses in the range of approximately $24 million to $25 million, driven by higher average debt balances to fund planned growth initiatives, higher share repurchases, capital investments in international operations and ongoing working capital needs. The effective tax rate is now expected to be in the range of 18.5% to 19% and the diluted weighted average shares outstanding are projected to be approximately 91 million shares. Full year 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share are still expected to be in the range of $2.20 to $2.35. Reported diluted earnings per share are now expected in the range of $2.00 to $2.15.

我們現在預計2019 年的淨利息和其他費用約為2400 萬美元至2500 萬美元，這是由於為計劃中的增長計劃提供資金的平均債務餘額增加、股票回購增加、國際業務資本投資以及持續的營運資金需求所致。目前，有效稅率預計在 18.5% 至 19% 之間，攤薄加權平均已發行股份預計約 9,100 萬股。2019 年全年調整後稀釋每股盈餘預計仍將在 2.20 美元至 2.35 美元之間。報告的攤薄每股收益目前預計在 2.00 美元至 2.15 美元之間。

Now let me provide some information on our outlook for the second quarter. We expect low-single digit revenue growth, which includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of approximately $5 million or 1%. The second quarter will include approximately $5 million of incremental start-up costs related to the acquired Saucony operations in Italy, opening of new stores and the addition of a new member of our executive team to drive global merchandising and enhance our product innovation pipeline. Net interest expense for the quarter will be approximately $2 million higher than last year due to the use of funds for share repurchases and the phasing of inventory investments. As a result, Q2 adjusted earnings per share are expected to be approximately $0.50.

現在讓我提供一些有關第二季度前景的資訊。我們預計收入將出現低個位數成長，其中包括約 500 萬美元或 1% 的不利外匯影響。第二季將包括約 500 萬美元的增量啟動成本，這些成本涉及收購索康尼在義大利的業務、開設新店以及增加執行團隊的新成員，以推動全球銷售並增強我們的產品創新管道。由於資金用於股票回購和分階段庫存投資，本季的淨利息支出將比去年增加約 200 萬美元。因此，第二季調整後每股收益預計約為 0.50 美元。

In closing, I want to reiterate that we continue to relentlessly focus on growing our brands through implementation of the brand growth model, investing in key initiatives and supporting our employees with the tools and resources necessary to drive growth. The investment in new channels of distribution in Europe and our store fleet provides accelerated growth in the back half of the year with further opportunity in 2020 from the full-year benefit of these initiatives and growth from our China joint venture. The Company's strong liquidity provides ample capacity to invest in these growth drivers and we remain focused on leveraging our global operating model to deliver strong earnings from these new operations.

最後，我想重申，我們將繼續堅持不懈地致力於透過實施品牌成長模型來發展我們的品牌，投資於關鍵舉措並為我們的員工提供推動成長所需的工具和資源。對歐洲新分銷管道和我們商店隊伍的投資為下半年的加速成長提供了加速成長的機會，並在 2020 年從這些舉措的全年效益和我們中國合資企業的成長中獲得了進一步的機會。公司強大的流動性提供了充足的能力來投資這些成長動力，我們仍然專注於利用我們的全球營運模式從這些新業務中帶來強勁的收益。

Thanks for your time this morning, and we will now turn the call back to the operator.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間，我們現在將把電話轉回給接線生。

Great, thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jim Duffy from Stifel. Please go ahead.

太好了謝謝。此時，我們將進行問答環節。（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jim Duffy。請繼續。

I'm going to start with Merrell. Can you guys talk about the shape of Merrell guidance for the remainder of the year? I know it was up low-single digits in the first quarter; that was above plan. I believe we had some challenges there with Latin American distributors and you're seeing good sell-through, but it sounds like that plus low-single digits is the expectation for the second quarter and then acceleration in the back half. Are there some product release-related drivers that give you confidence there?

我將從梅雷爾開始。你們能談談梅雷爾今年剩餘時間的指導方針嗎？我知道第一季的漲幅為低個位數；這超出了計劃。我相信我們在拉丁美洲經銷商方面遇到了一些挑戰，並且您看到了良好的銷售情況，但聽起來加上低個位數是第二季度的預期，然後是後半段的加速。是否有一些與產品發布相關的驅動因素讓您有信心？

Yes, I mean, first of all, the pace of Merrell growth this year, we see Merrell accelerating to probably mid-single digits in Q2 and then high-single digits for the complete year. It's supported by their backlog and I would say especially strong performance in the performance categories; high Nature's Gym and work. Nature's Gym was up over 30% in Q1, work was up almost 40% in Q1. Their e-commerce business continues to be very strong; over 30% growth. Their digital-direct offense is working. In Q1, they did have some headwinds. There were some international distributor bankruptcies that had an impact. Foreign currency especially hit the Merrell business and I would say some of the brand protection initiatives they've taken in the U.S., which is the right thing to do when it comes to map and third -- unauthorized third-party sellers had an impact in Q1 on topline sales. But we remain very confident about Merrell and the outlook for the rest of the year, supported by the -- fundamentally by the product pipeline and compelling stories.

是的，我的意思是，首先，梅雷爾今年的成長速度，我們看到梅雷爾在第二季度可能加速到中個位數，然後全年達到高個位數。這是由他們的積壓訂單支持的，我想說的是在性能類別中表現尤其強勁；高自然的健身房和工作。Nature's Gym 在第一季成長了 30% 以上，工作量成長了近 40%。他們的電子商務業務仍然非常強勁；增長超過30%。他們的數位直接進攻正在發揮作用。在第一季度，他們確實遇到了一些阻力。一些國際經銷商破產產生了影響。外匯尤其對梅雷爾業務造成了打擊，我想說他們在美國採取的一些品牌保護舉措，在地圖和第三方方面，這是正確的做法——未經授權的第三方賣家對第一季度的營收。但我們對 Merrell 以及今年剩餘時間的前景仍然非常有信心，這主要得益於產品線和引人入勝的故事的支持。

Yes. And the other -- only other thing I'd add Jim is that for Latin America and Europe, Q1 and a portion of Q2 are sort of the major areas of challenge there or headwinds coming from those 2 regions. And just between the comps in the back half for Latin America and just an improved situation in Europe, we think those will significantly improve as the year progresses.

是的。吉姆我要補充的另一件事是，對於拉丁美洲和歐洲來說，第一季和第二季的一部分是那裡面臨挑戰的主要領域或來自這兩個地區的阻力。就拉丁美洲下半年的比較和歐洲情況的改善而言，我們認為隨著今年的進展，這些情況將顯著改善。

Good to hear. And then in the release, you talked about unforeseen challenges. It's very -- it sounds like that was just demand-related relative to boat shoes or was there some sort of operational or product dynamic?

很高興聽到。然後在發布中，您談到了不可預見的挑戰。聽起來這只是與船鞋相關的需求，還是存在某種營運或產品動態？

No. It was really focused in Q1 entirely on boat shoes. We had a -- it was a pretty weak quarter here in the U.S., Sperry biggest market, whether it was weather, the late spring, we had snow fall in here just 12 days ago in Michigan if you can believe it. Maybe some of that was due to the Easter shift as well but retailers, we saw as the quarter progressed, took a very conservative stance when it came to reordering our at-once. So Sperry in the quarter almost gained 400 basis points in market share in the boat category and their sell-throughs were pretty good, at least equal to last year, but the reorders just did not materialize from U.S. retailers. They just took a conservative view. So the real issue on Sperry is just the boat issue in this quarter.

不。第一季的重點完全集中在船鞋上。我們經歷了一個——這是美國 Sperry 最大市場的一個相當疲軟的季度，無論是天氣還是春末，如果你相信的話，就在 12 天前，我們密西根州還下雪了。也許部分原因是復活節的轉變，但隨著本季的進展，我們看到零售商在立即重新訂購時採取了非常保守的立場。因此，本季 Sperry 在船舶類別的市佔率幾乎增加了 400 個基點，其銷售量也相當不錯，至少與去年持平，但美國零售商並未實現重新訂購。他們只是採取了保守的觀點。因此，斯佩里的真正問題只是本季的船隻問題。

The inventories though today through April at retail are much cleaner, the sell-through pace is picked up since the first quarter by quite a bit. So I think after having some time to assess Q1, it's certainly been a function of retailers working through inventory. They came into the year with, as Blake said, playing it closer to the vest, but already starting to see that kind of come back to a normal level. We are still for the year even giving -- embedded in the guidance we're giving for Sperry, we're not expecting boat to be a growth driver for the brand. In fact, we expect it to be down double-digits still for the rest of the year, but Sperry has such a strong offerings, vulcanized and obviously their lifestyle book business for the back half of the year where we're seeing an incredible amount of demand for that already in the order book, gives us real confidence that they'll be able to withstand this difficult Q1 and still deliver their full-year performance.

儘管從今天到四月份的零售庫存要乾淨得多，但自第一季以來，銷售速度已明顯加快。因此，我認為在花了一些時間評估第一季之後，這肯定是零售商處理庫存的功能。正如布萊克所說，他們進入這一年時更加謹慎，但已經開始看到這種情況回到了正常水平。我們仍然在今年給予——嵌入我們為斯佩里提供的指導中，我們並不期望船舶成為該品牌的成長動力。事實上，我們預計今年剩餘時間仍將下降兩位數，但斯佩里擁有如此強大的產品，硫化，顯然他們的生活方式圖書業務在今年下半年我們看到了令人難以置信的數量訂單中已有的需求，讓我們真正有信心他們將能夠承受這個困難的第一季度，並仍然實現全年業績。

Great. And then last one from me. Can -- Mike, can you just talk about how you expect the inventory to progress across the quarters of the year. I know you're budgeting to carry more inventory, but give us a little more direction on that?

偉大的。然後是我的最後一張。可以—麥克，您能談談您預計今年各季度的庫存進展如何嗎？我知道您正在製定預算以增加庫存，但請給我們更多的指導嗎？

Sure. Yes, this is again Q1 was a little ahead of our plan, but directionally, we expect it to be up over 20% in the first quarter and I'd expect us to be in sort of the mid-20 range, 25% to 30% higher in Q2 and Q3. Those were 2 quarters where we had the most challenged a year ago with respect to just order fill and some delays and other costs. I mean in the back half of last year, we spent quite a bit on air freight and other costs that when you're trying to chase that demand that are problematic to the margin. So we would sort of see that continuing kind of through Q3 and then like I said in my prepared remarks down to a more reasonable level in terms of growth up just low-single digits by the end of the year. We've seen a significant improvement in our fill rates and our ability to achieve the demand that we see in the order book compared to last year and we're also seeing with our U.S. business in particular, 3 or 4 of our largest retail customers, who are really shifting their order cadence from future orders to at-once orders this year. And that's obviously putting a little more responsibility on us as a brand to hold inventory for those retailers. So that shift is not a new shift, but for us this year, to have 2 or 3 large accounts, doing that obviously puts a little more pressure on us to hold the core inventory, but we're very -- Jim, we're very comfortable with the quality of the inventory, the age of the inventory, our skew productivity staying really high. So I think overall we're really comfortable with where we are right now as we work through the year.

當然。是的，這又是第一季比我們的計劃提前了一點，但從方向上看，我們預計第一季的成長將超過 20%，我預計我們的成長將在 20% 左右，即 25% 到第二季和第三季成長了30%。這是我們一年前在訂單履行、一些延誤和其他成本方面面臨最大挑戰的兩個季度。我的意思是，去年下半年，我們在空運和其他成本上花費了相當多的費用，當你試圖追逐這種需求時，這對利潤率來說是有問題的。因此，我們將看到這種情況持續到第三季度，然後就像我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，到年底，增長將降至一個更合理的水平，僅為低個位數。與去年相比，我們的填充率和滿足訂單需求的能力有了顯著提高，而且我們還看到，特別是我們的美國業務，有 3 到 4 個最大的零售客戶今年，他們確實將訂單節奏從未來訂單轉變為一次性訂單。這顯然讓我們作為一個品牌承擔了更多的責任，為這些零售商保留庫存。因此，這種轉變並不是一個新的轉變，但對我們來說，今年擁有2 或3 個大客戶，這樣做顯然會給我們持有核心庫存帶來更大的壓力，但我們非常- 吉姆，我們'我們對庫存的品質、庫存的壽命、我們的偏斜生產率保持非常高的水平非常滿意。因此，我認為總體而言，我們對全年工作中目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

Our next question is from Steve Marotta from CLK & Associates. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 CLK & Associates 的 Steve Marotta。請繼續。

I know the boat shoes comprise less than 50% of annual sales. Can you talk a little bit about what the makeup is for spring/summer versus fall/winter? And also what specific other categories in the spring/summer are performing well or hopefully outperforming within the brand?

據我所知，船鞋佔年銷售額的比例不到 50%。可以談談春夏和秋冬的化妝是什麼嗎？還有哪些具體的其他類別在春夏季表現良好或有望在品牌內表現出色？

Yes, I would say boat shoes are obviously heavier weighted in the first half of the year for Sperry than the second half. Boots in the second half are now approaching 45% to 50% of the overall revenue. Because of the weather, boots for Sperry obviously performed well in Q1. We basically sold out to the pair. We just frankly hadn't planned on the spring. We had and we could have used more boot product frankly for Sperry in Q1. And probably as we go forward, we're going to have some more transitional offering certainly for spring for Sperry, but also heavier boot offering, which we now see as really a 12-month composition. So reliance on boat is still prevalent in the first half of the year for Sperry but it will be -- we see that diminishing over the time. Its vulcanized business over the last 2 years has been extremely good and that business also has a much higher percentage of penetration (inaudible).

是的，我想說，斯佩里上半年的船鞋重量明顯比下半年重。下半年靴子目前已接近整體收入的 45% 至 50%。由於天氣原因，斯佩里的戰靴在第一季顯然表現出色。我們基本上都賣給了這對人。坦白說，我們沒有計劃春天。坦白說，我們在第一季為斯佩里使用了更多的引導產品。也許隨著我們的前進，我們將為 Sperry 的春季提供更多過渡產品，但也會提供更重的靴子產品，我們現在將其視為真正的 12 個月組合。因此，對於斯佩里來說，今年上半年對船隻的依賴仍然很普遍，但我們看到這種依賴會隨著時間的推移而減少。過去兩年其硫化業務非常好，而且該業務的滲透率也高得多（聽不清楚）。

I'd say in the first half of the year, we're going to -- Sperry will return to kind of flat performance in Q2 as Blake said and that's going to come on the heels of better vulcanized performance in the quarter and then they've offered some new casual product. They started to really emphasize that last year and you'll see this year in Q2 even more non-bulk casual product, it's performing well too. So there is still some very good diversification happening there. And as we said before the boat business is starting to improve a bit. So as we start to go into Q3, the boot shipments are actually going to start quite a bit earlier this year compared to last year, just based on the order demand and the fact that some retailers didn't get enough of that product last year as we sold through it so well. So we're starting to see that demand kind of accelerate into the middle of Q3 at this point.

我想說，在今年上半年，我們將——正如布萊克所說，斯佩里將在第二季度恢復到平淡的表現，這將緊隨本季度更好的硫化表現之後出現，然後他們推出了一些新的休閒產品。他們開始真正強調，去年，你會在今年第二季看到更多的非散裝休閒產品，它也表現良好。因此，那裡仍然存在一些非常好的多元化。正如我們之前所說，船舶業務開始有所改善。因此，當我們開始進入第三季度時，與去年相比，今年的靴子發貨實際上會提前很多，這只是基於訂單需求以及一些零售商去年沒有獲得足夠的該產品的事實因為我們的銷售非常好。因此，我們開始看到需求在第三季中期加速。

That's very helpful. Can you talk a little bit about the growth model? You mentioned that, Merrell and Cat, both exemplify. What is going on with that particular model and their earlier adoption and the speed at which now the other brands can begin to adopt the model. Can you talk about what other brands are targeted and when will we see the improved fundamentals based on those new processes?

這非常有幫助。您能談談成長模式嗎？你提到過，梅雷爾和凱特就是例證。該特定模型的進展及其早期採用情況以及現在其他品牌可以開始採用該模型的速度。您能否談談其他品牌的目標是什麼？我們什麼時候才能看到基於這些新流程的基本面改善？

Yes, I would say that the brand growth model, it's now a proven success for us even with Sperry in some of the expansion categories and success Sperry has proven, certainly for Merrell and certainly now for Cat. One of the reasons for our reorganization other than just to simplify the organization structure and all the brands being located in Michigan and combining all of our work brands under 1 umbrella was to accelerate our execution against the brand growth model. Todd has been the senior executive here, who has been leading that charge now for 12 months, 18 months. And we just need to execute faster. It frankly never goes fast enough for me, but we need to execute faster for our medium size and smaller brands. And that's a pretty dynamic model. So our largest brands continue to hone it, examine it, look at their consumer territories, look at their strategic product creation processes every year, every season. So as you know, the brand model is focused on brand strategy. That's brand DNA, target markets, consumer territories, brand design. It's then also focused on seasonal activation. That gets down to what are the actual products and opportunities under specific consumer territories and then it's focused on the resources needed. What do we need to do to enable the brand to achieve its growth opportunities; talent, tools, skill sets, that sort of things. So Cat has certainly shown that a rigorous approach against the model can even lead to short-term results, and we would hope to start to see those type of results here over the next season or 2 for the majority of our brands.

是的，我想說的是，品牌成長模式現在對我們來說已經被證明是成功的，即使Sperry 在某些擴展類別中也是如此，Sperry 已經證明了成功，當然對於Merrell 來說，現在對於Cat來說也是如此。我們重組的原因之一，不僅是為了簡化組織結構、所有品牌都位於密西根州並將我們所有的工作品牌合併在一個傘下，而是為了加快我們對品牌成長模式的執行。托德 (Todd) 一直是這裡的高級管理人員，他領導這項工作已經有 12 個月、18 個月了。我們只需要執行得更快。坦白說，對我來說，它永遠不夠快，但我們需要為中型和小型品牌執行得更快。這是一個非常動態的模型。因此，我們最大的品牌每年、每個季節都會持續磨練、檢視、檢視他們的消費者領域、審視他們的策略產品創造流程。如您所知，品牌模式專注於品牌策略。這就是品牌 DNA、目標市場、消費領域、品牌設計。然後它還專注於季節性激活。這取決於特定消費者領域的實際產品和機會是什麼，然後專注於所需的資源。我們需要做什麼才能使品牌獲得成長機會；人才、工具、技能等等。因此，Cat 無疑已經表明，對該模型採取嚴格的方法甚至可以帶來短期結果，我們希望在下一季或第二季我們的大多數品牌能夠開始看到此類結果。

Yes. I think you will see that. You're seeing it in Saucony and Cat's had a really strong first quarter. And I would say those 2 brands are sort of the next up on the list.

是的。我想你會看到的。你可以在 Saucony 和 Cat’s 中看到這一點，第一季的業績非常強勁。我想說這兩個品牌是名單上的下一個品牌。

Our next question here is from Jonathan Komp from Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Jonathan Komp。請繼續。

I want to start off by asking about the full-year outlook. Unchanged overall, especially for revenue unchanged despite (inaudible) a little bit of an unexpected softness in the first quarter and then still kind of a gradual build in the second quarter. So as you look to the full year, can you highlight any specific changes in the outlook or any areas that you're more confident looking into the second half and then maybe tie in? I know it can be noisy but the backlog disclosed in the 10-K looked fairly strong. So any more color there?

我想先詢問全年展望。整體上沒有變化，特別是收入沒有變化，儘管第一季（聽不清楚）有一點意想不到的疲軟，但第二季仍然逐漸增長。因此，當您展望全年時，您能否強調前景中的任何具體變化，或者您對下半年更有信心並可能與之配合的任何領域？我知道這可能很吵，但 10-K 中披露的積壓工作看起來相當強勁。那麼還有更多顏色嗎？

I mean, fundamentally, our outlook -- 1 of the key factors goes back to our order book. So we've got another 3, 4 months of insight into our order book in the second half of the year. The second half of the year for us is going to frankly have a lot of tailwinds. And we know Sperry is going to have a very strong boot season. We know our Saucony Italy operations are going to come on board. Our international distribution is going to have a much easier compare to last year. We know that FX is going to be an easier compare and that's going to have less of an impact. We're going to have some new stores, 12 to 15 new stores in that range. Our e-commerce business, we plan on continuing to be very strong. We know that Sperry's product pipeline is going to deliver in Q in the second half and Saucony is going to return to growth and Sperry is going to have solid growth. So when you total all that up, we have a high confidence level when it comes to our second half outlook. I'm sure we'll have though whether it's tariffs or few other things. We'll have a few unexpected headwinds or challenges in there. But overall, we've got a lot of tailwind for the second half.

我的意思是，從根本上來說，我們的前景——關鍵因素之一可以追溯到我們的訂單簿。因此，我們在下半年對訂單簿進行了另外 3、4 個月的深入研究。坦白說，今年下半年我們將會有許多順風車。我們知道斯佩里將會有一個非常強勁的賽季。我們知道我們的索康尼義大利業務將會加入。與去年相比，我們的國際發行將會容易得多。我們知道外匯將更容易進行比較，而且影響也較小。我們將開設一些新店，這個範圍內有 12 到 15 家新店。我們的電子商務業務，我們計劃繼續保持強勁。我們知道 Sperry 的產品線將在下半年交付，Saucony 將恢復成長，Sperry 將實現穩健成長。因此，當您將所有這些加起來時，我們對下半年的前景充滿信心。我確信無論是關稅還是其他一些事情我們都會解決。我們會遇到一些意想不到的阻力或挑戰。但總的來說，下半年我們有很多順風車。

Great. That's helpful. And maybe a similarly themed question around the gross margin. I know first quarter had backs, but did kind of flattish. And you have the inventory, which you explained a good portion of it, but anything else in the first quarter that stands out other than the mix components you highlighted? And then just any more color on how gross margin should progress throughout the year.

偉大的。這很有幫助。也許還有一個關於毛利率的類似主題的問題。我知道第一節有後衛，但表現有點平淡。你有庫存，你解釋了其中的很大一部分，但除了你強調的混合成分之外，第一季還有什麼其他突出的嗎？然後再對全年毛利率的進度做更多的描述。

Yes, I think for the first 2 quarters of the year, these bankruptcies are not helping us. And as Blake said, we've got most of those bankruptcies, by the way, or some of those business challenges are for businesses or distributors that pay us royalties. So the margin impact of that is quite high. The dollar flow-through of that is nearly 100% of the revenue. So it's one of the reasons why the mix looks a little worse. A little bit of FX impact in the first 2 quarters also Jon that we didn't actually talk about but it kind of flattens out, and actually for the full year, it's a non-issue. We don't think FX is going to have really any impact overall for the year on earnings or gross margin, but in the first half of the year, it's a 10 or 15 basis point headwind for us on gross margins. The most important improvements in the back half are going to come from the stronger DTC mix that we talked about as we add stores and we continue to accelerate our e-comm business in the mix. Those businesses carry a really high gross margin rate. So they helped the overall mix. Sperry's margins on boots are very, very good and obviously missing that revenue in the first half of the year on boat, which is also a high-margin business for Sperry, has shifted the kind of the dynamic of the Sperry margin story from H1 to H2 a little bit. And we have lower product costs already kind of locked in for the back half of the year, both for some of our fall merchandise that will be shipping in Q3 and Q4 and also some spring product that will ship a little bit earlier in that sort of November, December time frame. Our sourcing team has done a great job of negotiating pricing for all of our brands. Frankly, one of the benefits of being able to take position on inventory right now is to help the factories flatten their production and get us better pricing, and be able to negotiate better pricing with our suppliers. So those are tailwinds in the back half as well. So we think, again, good visibility to that. Some of the issues that we've experienced in the first 2 quarters will abate in the back half, so we won't have those headwinds too.

是的，我認為今年前兩個季度，這些破產事件對我們沒有幫助。正如布萊克所說，順便說一句，我們大部分破產，或者其中一些業務挑戰是針對向我們支付特許權使用費的企業或分銷商的。因此，這對利潤率的影響相當高。其中的美元流量幾乎佔收入的 100%。所以這就是為什麼混合看起來有點糟糕的原因之一。喬恩，前兩個季度的外匯影響也有一點，我們實際上沒有談論，但它有點趨於平緩，實際上對於全年來說，這不是問題。我們認為外匯不會對今年的整體獲利或毛利率產生任何真正的影響，但在今年上半年，這對我們的毛利率來說是 10 或 15 個基點的阻力。下半年最重要的改進將來自我們在增加商店時談論的更強大的 DTC 組合，並繼續加速我們的電子商務業務。這些業務的毛利率非常高。所以他們幫助了整體混音。Sperry 的靴子利潤率非常非常好，而且顯然缺少上半年的船舶收入，這對 Sperry 來說也是一項高利潤業務，這已經將 Sperry 利潤故事的動態從上半年轉變為H2一點點。我們已經在今年下半年鎖定了較低的產品成本，包括將在第三季度和第四季度發貨的一些秋季商品，以及將在該類時間提前一點發貨的一些春季產品。十一月、十二月的時間範圍。我們的採購團隊在為我們所有品牌進行定價談判方面做得非常出色。坦白說，現在能夠掌握庫存的好處之一是幫助工廠扁平化生產，為我們提供更好的定價，並能夠與我們的供應商協商更好的定價。所以這些也是後半段的順風車。因此，我們再次認為，這一點具有良好的可見性。我們在前兩個季度遇到的一些問題將在後半段減弱，因此我們也不會遇到這些阻力。

Okay, great. Very helpful. And just last one from me, Blake. I think you made a comment about the work category across all the brands. I think you said approaching 20% of the global revenue and just sounded like you were calling it out a little more explicitly as a potential focusing growth driver. So I wanted to maybe follow up on that just to confirm kind of a size today and how you see the growth opportunities for that category specifically?

好的，太好了。很有幫助。這是我的最後一篇，布萊克。我認為您對所有品牌的工作類別發表了評論。我認為您所說的接近全球收入的 20%，聽起來像是您更明確地將其稱為潛在的重點成長動力。所以我想跟進一下，只是為了確認今天的規模，以及您如何看待該類別的具體成長機會？

Yes, I would say today it's probably in around 17% of our overall revenue for the Company. We did a little bit of a deep dive into that. That's a growing category as you know for the footwear industry, especially the U.S. market over the last couple of years. We looked it a little bit deeper dive. It was one of the reasons underlying our changing group structure here to put all of our group brands. That would be Wolverine, Cat, Bates, HYTEST. Merrell has a very fast growing tactical and work business and really you could throw a little of Harley-Davidson in there as well, but put them all under one umbrella. We think it's trending from a bit of a fashion standpoint. We think it's trending from a use standpoint and it's one of the strengths of the Company. And so we like having a lot of arrows in our quiver, when it comes to attacking that particular opportunity and I think this new structure is going to help accelerate.

是的，我想說今天它可能占公司總收入的 17% 左右。我們對此做了一些深入的研究。如您所知，對於製鞋業來說，這是一個不斷增長的類別，尤其是過去幾年的美國市場。我們更深入地研究了它。這是我們改變集團結構以將所有集團品牌放在這裡的原因之一。那將是金鋼狼、貓、貝茲、HYTEST。梅雷爾擁有快速成長的戰術和工作業務，實際上你也可以在其中加入一些哈雷戴維森公司，但將它們全部放在一個保護傘下。我們認為從時尚的角度來看這是一種趨勢。我們認為從使用的角度來看這是趨勢，也是公司的優勢之一。因此，當談到攻擊特定機會時，我們喜歡在箭袋裡放很多箭，我認為這種新結構將有助於加速。

Exactly. I mean, Wolverine alone owns the #1 spot in the market in the U.S. marketplace for work. And when you add these other brands in the portfolio to that, I mean, the market share that we control in the U.S. is pretty staggering. So it's an area of strength for us, it always has been and I think it's going to continue to be a growth driver for us.

確切地。我的意思是，光是金鋼狼就在美國工作市場上佔據了第一的位置。當你將這些其他品牌添加到產品組合中時，我的意思是，我們在美國控制的市場份額是相當驚人的。因此，這對我們來說是一個優勢領域，一直如此，我認為它將繼續成為我們的成長動力。

Our next question is from Sam Poser from Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的 Sam Poser。請繼續。

This is Will on for Sam. Can you just discuss the difference in the EBIT margin profiles between the wholesale business and the e-commerce business? Does e-comm carry a higher or lower EBIT margin in the wholesale business?

這是威爾為山姆主持的節目。您能否簡單討論批發業務和電子商務業務之間息稅前利潤率的差異？電子商務在批發業務中的息稅前利潤率更高還是更低？

Slightly higher. It's -- we've been making some significant investments in the e-comm platforms and structure to drive growth there. But even with those investments included, the operating margins for that channel are very strong and pretty consistent with our wholesale margins.

稍微高點。我們一直在電子商務平台和結構上進行一些重大投資，以推動那裡的成長。但即使包括這些投資，該通路的營業利潤率也非常強勁，並且與我們的批發利潤率相當一致。

Great. And then secondly, can you discuss in a little further detail the additional non-recurring items that you're baking into your new non-GAAP operating margin and EPS?

偉大的。其次，您能否更詳細地討論您正在納入新的非公認會計原則營業利潤率和每股收益中的其他非經常性項目？

Sure. Yes. Fundamentally, we continue to incur costs related to our legacy environmental issue and as we guided in February, there are about $20 million of legal fees and other non-remediation costs that we're incurring here over the course of the year that we're treating as non-recurring or non-GAAP charges. We also have some costs related to business development and we talked today a little bit about the China joint venture and we had some other business development activities in the first quarter that we incurred that are small part of that overall charge, but those are also included as well.

當然。是的。從根本上說，我們繼續承擔與遺留環境問題相關的成本，正如我們在 2 月份指導的那樣，我們在這一年中承擔了大約 2000 萬美元的法律費用和其他非補救成本。視為非經常性費用或非公認會計原則費用。我們還有一些與業務開發相關的成本，今天我們稍微討論了中國合資企業，我們在第一季度進行了一些其他業務開發活動，這些成本只佔總費用的一小部分，但這些也包括在內以及。

Great. And then last one from me. What is the inventory turn over the 4 weeks of supply that you're targeting? Is it something -- somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 to 14x 4 weeks of supply kind of your sweet spot?

偉大的。然後是我的最後一張。您的目標 4 週供應期間的庫存週轉率是多少？大約 13 到 14x 4 週的供應量是否是您的最佳選擇？

It's just -- it really depends on the brand. While we have so many different business models, and obviously our brands in terms of how they service their international markets differ. But in the aggregate, we kind of think about 3.5x to 4x inventory turn is a good target for the Company.

這實際上取決於品牌。雖然我們有很多不同的商業模式，但顯然我們的品牌在服務國際市場的方式上有所不同。但總的來說，我們認為 3.5 倍到 4 倍的庫存週轉率對公司來說是一個不錯的目標。

Our next question here is from Edward Yruma from KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Edward Yruma。請繼續。

I guess first, I think you guys said, Mike, you were about 7 points higher on inventory growth than you would have expected. I guess if you could kind of deconstruct that and maybe more specifically kind of isolate how much of that is boat inventory. And I know that you said that you've seen both trends improve or the sell-throughs improve. Is your expectation that you're going to have to hold inventory for next year, pack it away, use half price? How exactly you're going to clear the boat piece of it? And then finally, any update on PFAS. Thanks.

我想首先，我想你們說，麥克，你們的庫存成長比你們預期的高出大約 7 個百分點。我想你是否可以解構這一點，也許更具體地說，可以隔離其中有多少是船舶庫存。我知道您說過您已經看到趨勢的改善或銷售量的改善。您是否期望明年必須保留庫存，將其打包，使用半價？你究竟要如何清除船上的碎片？最後，關於 PFAS 的任何更新。謝謝。

Sure. Yes, on the inventory, it's -- I'd say about half of that is boat and the other half is kind of within Sperry and a couple of the other brands. But overall, nothing that we're concerned about relative to how we are going to move it through the channels that we have. Again, we'd expect that all to get normalized by the end of the year. And as far as promotional kind of -- as a promotional activity as an option to move the inventory, we'll probably have some of that, but I don't expect or we don't expect it to be anything more than normal. Again, the issue there was timing. We got ahead of ourselves a little bit trying to get some core product into the pipeline a little faster to deal with some capacity issues that we've had in a couple of categories. That's all been rectified and as we go forward, I think we're going to be able to work through it just fine. And the PFAS issue...

當然。是的，在庫存中，我想說大約一半是船，另一半是斯佩里和其他幾個品牌的。但總的來說，我們並不關心如何透過現有管道推動它。同樣，我們預計這一切將在今年年底前恢復正常。就促銷而言——作為促銷活動作為轉移庫存的一種選擇，我們可能會有一些，但我不期望或我們不期望它會比正常情況更多。同樣，問題在於時機。我們有點超前地嘗試讓一些核心產品更快進入管道，以解決我們在幾個類別中遇到的一些容量問題。這一切都已得到糾正，隨著我們的前進，我認為我們將能夠很好地解決這個問題。還有PFAS問題...

On the PFAS issue, not a lot to report there. As you read in the news, this is emerging contaminant. It's hundreds and hundreds of sites and water systems have been identified around the country. We've set frankly a very high standard for everybody. We've treated this from the beginning as involving our friends, families and neighbors have taken a bit of a better than science approach. So our own individual matters continue to march through the courts always a pleasant process. The news I would think over the last 3 or 5 months is that we brought 3M into these lawsuits. They are the company that manufactured, marketed and sold this millions of consumers and businesses for decades and decades. So they're now involved in these actions and we've also ended up filing a lawsuit against our insurance companies. So our particular fight really relates to pre-1970 actions and so we believe we have pretty good -- pretty solid insurance coverage. The costs that were quoted earlier by Mike do not include any recoveries from 3M, insurance companies or other third-parties. So that would be the only thing really to note.

關於 PFAS 問題，沒有太多可報導的。正如您在新聞中讀到的那樣，這是一種新興污染物。全國各地已確定了數百個地點和供水系統。坦白說，我們為每個人設定了非常高的標準。我們從一開始就將這個問題視為讓我們的朋友、家人和鄰居參與，採取了比科學更好的方法。因此，我們自己的個人事務繼續在法庭上進行，這始終是一個令人愉快的過程。我認為過去 3 到 5 個月的新聞是我們將 3M 捲入了這些訴訟。他們是幾十年來為數以百萬計的消費者和企業製造、行銷和銷售的公司。所以他們現在參與了這些行動，我們最後也對我們的保險公司提起了訴訟。因此，我們的特殊鬥爭確實與 1970 年之前的行動有關，因此我們相信我們擁有相當不錯的保險保障。麥克之前引用的費用不包括 3M、保險公司或其他第三方的任何賠償。所以這是唯一真正需要注意的事情。

The next question here is from Chris Svezia from Wedbush. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Chris Svezia。請繼續。

I want to start on Saucony. Just kind of walk through what you expect as the year unfolds, down mid-teens, I think, Q1, better than you planned. I guess it improved somewhat, still down in Q2 and then you have confidence in return to growth in the back half. I guess how much of that is Italy coming into the picture? How much of that is just the core business, U.S. wholesale, direct consumer and EMA? So just maybe kind of walk through your confidence level in that selection for that brand.

我想從索康尼開始。隨著今年的展開，我認為第一季的情況比你計劃的要好。我想它有所改善，但在第二季度仍然下降，然後你有信心在後半段恢復成長。我猜義大利的影響有多大？其中有多少是核心業務、美國批發、直接消費者和 EMA？因此，也許可以了解一下您對該品牌的選擇的信心程度。

Yes. We have a pretty high confidence level. We think Q1 here is kind of the bottom of the ball, if you want to view it that way. We think Saucony will continue to be down in Q2. That could be mid-single digit range, maybe a little bit more than that. We see growth in the second half not just by Italy, but fundamentally by the core of their business with new product introductions, introduction of new technologies. So we see the U.S. recovering, we see EMA coming back and then we see the addition of Italy to be a major plus factor especially since we plan to use -- our Italian distributor have a very strong original lifestyle business in Saucony. With some colors, materials, a few different designs and we intend to use Italy as a design hub to kind of leverage that around that ability, that design expertise around the world. So we have a pretty high confidence level in Saucony's return to growth certainly by the second half.

是的。我們有相當高的信心。如果你想這樣看的話，我們認為第一季是底部。我們認為索康尼第二季將繼續下滑。這可能是中間個位數的範圍，也許比這個多一點。我們看到下半年的成長不僅來自義大利，而且從根本上來說是來自他們的核心業務，即新產品的推出和新技術的引進。因此，我們看到美國正在復蘇，我們看到EMA 回來了，然後我們看到義大利的加入將成為一個主要的有利因素，特別是因為我們計劃使用——我們的義大利經銷商在索康尼擁有非常強大的原創生活方式業務。透過一些顏色、材質和一些不同的設計，我們打算利用義大利作為設計中心，以利用這種能力，以及世界各地的設計專業知識。因此，我們對索康尼下半年恢復成長抱持相當高的信心。

Okay, thank you. And then just on Chaco for a moment. Just any color there? I guess, did you see an acceleration as you came into April for that brand? And just any color there would be helpful.

好的謝謝。然後就在 Chaco 上呆了一會兒。那裡有什麼顏色嗎？我想，當您進入四月時，您是否看到該品牌的加速發展？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, I mean, Saucony for a couple of quarters has been challenged and it's least-handled business primarily in the Southeast here in the United States. Saucony has a pipeline expansion in the packs and bags, expansion into leather sandals, which has been very successful and into some water shoes and clothes, toad style. So we also see Chaco returning to growth in the second half. We would anticipate probably for the full year low-single growth -- digit growth for Chaco as it expands into other categories. And then we put Chip Coe again in charge of the Chaco business and Chip is frankly already having an immediate impact there.

是的，我的意思是，索康尼幾個季度以來一直受到挑戰，它是處理最少的業務，主要在美國東南部。索康尼 (Saucony) 已將產品線擴展到背包和包袋領域，擴展到皮革涼鞋，非常成功，也擴展到一些水鞋和蟾蜍風格的衣服。因此，我們也看到 Chaco 在下半年恢復成長。我們預計，隨著 Chaco 擴展到其他類別，全年可能會出現低單數增長——數字增長。然後我們再次讓 Chip Coe 負責 Chaco 業務，坦白說，Chip 已經在那裡產生了立竿見影的影響。

Okay. And just on -- I want to push you a little bit on the revenue guidance. I know you called out a lot of things. You're encouraged about visibility into order book, Italy, e-commerce, stores, what's going on with some of these brands. But Q1, I mean, I think you're halfway through Q1 when you gave the guidance, you felt a little bit short. So I guess what I'm curious about how much you're factoring in maybe some of the areas whether it could be shortfalls, whether it's international distributors or other areas into the guidance to sort of give us confidence that you can kind of hit that 3% that you've kind of factored in some of these risks, potentially that could play in the business? Just any color about that.

好的。就這樣—我想向您介紹收入指導。我知道你喊了很多話。我們鼓勵您了解訂單簿、義大利、電子商務、商店以及其中一些品牌的動態。但是 Q1，我的意思是，我認為當你給出指導時，你已經完成了 Q1 的一半，你感覺有點短。所以我想我很好奇你在指導中考慮了多少可能存在短缺的領域，無論是國際分銷商還是其他領域，以讓我們有信心你可以達到這個目標3％，您已經考慮了其中一些可能在業務中發揮作用的風險？任何顏色都可以。

I would say this, Chris, I mean I think there -- and it was also kind of true when we gave us the original guidance. Obviously, we had less visibility to the back half of the year at that time. And so we had, we have quite a bit of that risk factored into our guidance in the back half. Now, we have the Saucony Italy acquisition completed, which we didn't have completed when we gave our guidance, and so we have more certainty about that. The stores that we're going to add to the fleet are now -- those leases are being signed now or will be signed shortly and we have more clarity on that. So there's much more certainty around those things. The backlog for Sperry boots is -- we mentioned it about 5x already, but I mean that is a major source of confidence for us because the order book already reflects the demand that we expect to ship in the back half of the year. We have, if you take the individual impact of each of those specific things, it covers almost all of the back half revenue growth that would be implied in our guidance, which is about $95 million to $100 million of growth. It really is going to come from those 4 or 5 things. Our e-commerce business is as predictable as any part of our business today and that's been able to deliver at or above plan for the last several quarters. So the kind of certainty we have on those things has kind of improved, if you will, or kind of strengthened and then our visibility to some of the risk areas that are always in the business, right, and some we can't predict are also clear and we feel like the coverage that we have for those things has been updated in this review of the guidance. So overall, Chris, I would say we're even more comfortable today with the full-year guidance than we were when we gave it back in February.

我想說的是，克里斯，我的意思是我認為——當我們給我們最初的指導時，這也是事實。顯然，當時我們對下半年的能見度較低。因此，我們在後半段的指導中考慮了相當多的風險。現在，我們已經完成了對義大利索康尼的收購，而我們在提供指導時尚未完成這項收購，因此我們對此更有確定性。我們要添加到艦隊中的商店現在正在簽署或即將簽署這些租約，我們對此有了更清晰的了解。所以這些事情有較多的確定性。Sperry 靴子的積壓是——我們已經提到了大約 5 倍，但我的意思是，這是我們信心的主要來源，因為訂單已經反映了我們預計在今年下半年發貨的需求。如果你考慮每一項具體因素的單獨影響，你會發現它涵蓋了我們的指導中暗示的幾乎所有後半段收入增長，即約 9500 萬至 1 億美元的增長。它確實來自這 4 或 5 件事。我們的電子商務業務與我們當今業務的任何部分一樣可預測，並且在過去幾季能夠達到或高於計劃。因此，如果你願意的話，我們對這些事情的確定性有所提高，或者說有所加強，然後我們對業務中始終存在的一些風險領域的可見性，對吧，還有一些我們無法預測的風險領域也很清楚，我們覺得我們對這些事情的報導已經在本次指南審查中​​得到更新。所以總的來說，克里斯，我想說我們今天對全年指導比我們二月份給出的時候更加滿意。

Okay. That's helpful. And just one point of clarification, Mike. How big is e-commerce and what's the growth expectation for 2019?

好的。這很有幫助。麥克，我只想澄清一點。電子商務有多大？2019年的成長預期是什麼？

Yes, I think for the full year, we have it kind of slated at about 20% or a little above 20% for the full year. It was 28% in Q1. So gives you a good indication of our confidence in that growth number. And overall, e-commerce -- and our -- and now when you add in the total store fleet, it's going to be approaching 15%, 16% of our total revenue for the full year. So that's direct-to-consumer revenue that we control and we have certain high level of visibility and confidence with.

是的，我認為全年的成長率約為 20% 或略高於 20%。第一季為 28%。這很好地表明了我們對這一增長數字的信心。總的來說，電子商務——以及我們的——現在，當你算上總商店數量時，它將接近我們全年總收入的 15%、16%。因此，這是我們控制的直接面向消費者的收入，並且我們有一定的高水準的可見度和信心。

Our next question here is by Mitch Kummetz from Pivotal Research. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題是來自 Pivotal Research 的 Mitch Kummetz 提出的。請繼續。

Yes, thanks for taking my questions. You guys talked a lot about the tailwinds in the back half. That's encouraging. It sounds like you've got good visibility there. Just want to ask you a question about maybe some of the things you don't have quite as good visibility on. How are you -- how are you factoring in or how should -- what's your assumption around at-once in the back half? And then also Mike, you mentioned the stores, is there a underlying comp assumption that's embedded in the guidance?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。你們談了很多關於後半段順風的事情。這令人鼓舞。聽起來你那裡的能見度很好。只是想問你一個問題，也許是一些你不太了解的事情。你怎麼樣——你如何考慮或應該如何——你在後半場的假設是什麼？然後，麥克，您提到了商店，指南中是否嵌入了基本的補償假設？

Yes. At-once, we've been able to evaluate at-once during a period where the market wasn't performing very well, all right? Q1 overall and the U.S. market in particular, which is where we see most of our at-once demand, was pretty challenged. We are not assuming any kind of improvement in at-once trends year-over-year. Blake referred to the fact that our visibility into future demand is stronger for a couple of our key brands, including Merrell and Sperry. So while we're hopeful and we expect that as the weather shifts and so many other things that have been headwinds will kind of abate a little bit in the back half of the year, we're not expecting a significant improvement in at-once in the back half of the year. I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

是的。在市場表現不佳的時期，我們能夠立即評估，好嗎？第一季整體而言，尤其是美國市場（我們看到大部分一次性需求）面臨相當大的挑戰。我們不假設一次性趨勢同比有任何改善。布萊克提到，我們對包括 Merrell 和 Sperry 在內的幾個主要品牌的未來需求有更強的了解。因此，雖然我們充滿希望，並且預計隨著天氣的變化以及許多其他不利因素將在今年下半年減弱，但我們預計不會立即出現顯著改善下半年。抱歉，您問題的第二部分是什麼？

And then on store comp. How are you thinking about store comp in terms of the guidance?

然後在商店比較。您如何看待指導中的商店補償？

With respect to our stores, we've assumed nothing. We've been very conservative there. Our physical stores have outperformed the FDRA index by a good amount. Over the last several years, we frankly haven't built that into our plan. I think FDRA in Q1 was down about 1.5%. Our stores comp overall in Q1 was up almost 1% to give you an idea as to the difference in performance. So we've taken a pretty conservative view of our store comps as we go forward here, but would expect positive performance over the rest of the year for sure.

對於我們的商店，我們沒有做出任何假設。我們在那裡一直非常保守。我們的實體店的表現遠遠好於 FDRA 指數。坦白說，在過去的幾年裡，我們還沒有將其納入我們的計劃中。我認為第一季 FDRA 下降了約 1.5%。第一季我們商店的整體業績成長了近 1%，讓您了解業績差異。因此，在我們前進的過程中，我們對商店的業績表現持相當保守的看法，但預計今年剩餘時間將會有積極的表現。

Yes. I don't think that -- for the stores, I don't think it's about -- as much about the growth as it is the improvement in the performance of the stores, right? The operational improvements and the profit improvements there as we've been able to focus down and essentially Merrell and Sperry outlet stores has really allowed us to drive the performance and the results much better. And that's a reason why we're so confident in making the investments that we are and adding more -- still a small number of stores relative to the size of our brands, but adding more stores to the fleet this year now that our concepts have been proven and tested.

是的。我認為，對於商店來說，我不認為這與成長有關，而是與商店業績的改善有關，對吧？由於我們能夠專注於 Merrell 和 Sperry 直銷店，因此營運改善和利潤提高確實使我們能夠更好地推動績效和結果。這就是為什麼我們如此有信心進行投資並增加更多商店——相對於我們品牌的規模而言，商店數量仍然很少，但今年我們將在店群中增加更多商店，因為我們的概念已經已經被證明和測試。

Our next question here is from Erinn Murphy from Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Erinn Murphy。請繼續。

It's Eric on for Aaron this morning. I'll try and keep it short and brief here with time. I was just curious if I could get your take on the U.S. macro. If you strip out weather, Easter, tax refund noise, how do you guys think about the consumer relative to kind of 2018 in terms of strength in spending power?

今天早上埃里克替亞倫上場。隨著時間的推移，我會盡量簡短。我只是好奇能否了解您對美國宏觀經濟的看法。如果排除天氣、復活節、退稅等因素，你們如何看待 2018 年消費者的消費能力？

I think our -- listen, the U.S. consumer still drives our economy. So consumption here is still 2/3 of our overall economy. And when you look at the macro numbers over the last couple of years, it's been very, very good. The consumer is obviously changing in a number of different ways. Technology over the last 5 years has created a sea change in consumer soft goods, not just in the United States, but starting around the world. We think that level of change is going to continue. So we think the U.S. consumer right now is in a pretty good place. You can imagine a set of factors, 25% tariffs on all consumer soft goods coming into the country that would eventually probably starting next year, not this year, have an impact on the U.S. consumer. Even with all the buzz this week, we currently -- in the industry, currently doesn't see that as -- still view that as a low to maybe low-medium likelihood. So again, that can change on a given day. We do know that the U.S. consumer is responding to newness, freshness, design. They're responding to stories and new products that kind of break through the clutter because everybody has too much information in today's world and it can be a Saucony-Dunkin' Donuts collaboration, it can be a bigger product story and introduction for particular brand. But the consumer is responding to things that are newsworthy that break through the clutter. So overall, our view of the U.S. consumer is pretty positive right now, even with all the tariff buzz that you -- that you read about, that we all read about every day.

我認為，聽著，美國消費者仍然推動著我們的經濟。所以這裡的消費仍然占我們整體經濟的2/3。當你觀察過去幾年的宏觀數據時，你會發現情況非常非常好。消費者顯然正在以多種不同的方式發生變化。過去 5 年的科技為消費品產業帶來了翻天覆地的變化，不僅在美國，而且在全世界範圍內都是如此。我們認為這種程度的改變將會持續下去。因此，我們認為美國消費者目前處於非常好的狀態。你可以想像一系列因素，即對進入該國的所有消費品徵收 25% 的關稅，最終可能會從明年而不是今年開始，對美國消費者產生影響。儘管本周有很多討論，但我們目前——在行業中，目前並不認為這種情況——仍然認為這種可能性較低到中低。再說一遍，這可能會在某一天發生變化。我們確實知道美國消費者對新奇、新鮮和設計有反應。他們正在回應那些打破混亂的故事和新產品，因為當今世界每個人都擁有太多的信息，它可以是索康尼和鄧肯甜甜圈的合作，它可以是一個更大的產品故事和特定品牌的介紹。但消費者正在對那些打破混亂的具有新聞價值的事物做出反應。因此，總體而言，我們目前對美國消費者的看法相當積極，即使您每天都讀到有關關稅的言論。

Great. That's really helpful overview and just let me squeeze one quick follow-up in there. Regarding e-commerce and your guided investments this year, how do you think about balancing driving growth versus profitability in terms of shipping speeds to consumers?

偉大的。這是非常有用的概述，讓我在其中進行快速跟進。關於今年的電子商務和您的指導投資，您如何考慮在向消費者發貨的速度方面平衡驅動成長與獲利能力？

Yes, it's a -- it's an area we've spent a lot of time kind of evaluating over the last couple of years as we've had some significant growth in that channel. I mentioned earlier that the e-commerce business in the first quarter, the profitability there increased over 70% for the first quarter. We would expect some similar improvements for the balance of the year and some of that comes from just being able to assess and manage some of those levers that you're talking about. And it's a constant process, we test and react to the consumers' response as we change the approach, but we've been able to get a little more scientific about it and I think it's resulted in some better gross margins and some better profitability for the e-comm business.

是的，這是一個 - 這是我們在過去幾年中花費了大量時間進行評估的領域，因為我們在該管道中取得了一些顯著的增長。剛才我提到第一季電商業務，第一季獲利成長超過70%。我們預計今年剩餘時間會出現一些類似的改進，其中一些改進來自於能夠評估和管理您所談論的一些槓桿。這是一個持續的過程，當我們改變方法時，我們會測試消費者的反應並做出反應，但我們已經能夠對此進行更科學的了解，我認為這會帶來更好的毛利率和更好的獲利能力電子商務業務。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權交還給管理階層，以徵求結束語。

On behalf of Wolverine Worldwide, I'd like to thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, our conference call replay is available on our website at wolverineworldwide.com. The replay will be available until June 9, 2019. Thank you and good day.

我謹代表 Wolverine Worldwide 感謝您今天加入我們。請注意，我們的電話會議重播可在我們的網站 wolverineworldwide.com 上查看。重播將持續至 2019 年 6 月 9 日。謝謝你，美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。再次感謝您的參與。