Walker & Dunlop Inc (WD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. I'm Kelsey Duffey, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Walker & Dunlop, and I would like to welcome you to Walker & Dunlop's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Hosting the call today is Willy Walker, Walker & Dunlop, Chairman and CEO. He is joined by Greg Florkowski, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好。我是 Walker & Dunlop 投資者關係高級副總裁 Kelsey Duffey，歡迎大家參加 Walker & Dunlop 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。今天主持電話會議的是 Willy Walker，Walker & Dunlop 董事長兼首席執行官。執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Greg Florkowski 加入了他的行列。

Today's webcast is being recorded and a replay will be available via webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website. This morning, we posted our earnings release and presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website, www.walkerdunlop.com. These slides serve as a reference point for some of what Willy and Greg will touch on during the call. Please also note that we will reference the non-GAAP financial metrics, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted core EPS during the course of this call. Please refer to the appendix of the earnings presentation for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial metrics.

今天的網絡廣播正在錄製中，重播將通過我們網站投資者關係部分的網絡廣播提供。今天早上，我們在我們網站 www.walkerdunlop.com 的投資者關係部分發布了收益發布和演示文稿。這些幻燈片可作為 Willy 和 Greg 在通話期間將涉及的一些內容的參考點。另請注意，我們將在本次電話會議期間參考非 GAAP 財務指標、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的核心每股收益。請參閱收益報告的附錄，了解這些非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬情況。

Investors are urged to carefully read the forward-looking statements language in our earnings release. Statements made on this call, which are not historical facts, may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements describe our current expectations, and actual results may differ materially. Walker & Dunlop is under no obligation to update or alter our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And we expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. More detailed information about risk factors can be found in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC.

敦促投資者仔細閱讀我們的收益發布中的前瞻性陳述語言。此次電話會議上的陳述並非歷史事實，可被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述描述了我們當前的預期，實際結果可能存在重大差異。 Walker & Dunlop 沒有義務更新或更改我們的前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。我們明確表示不承擔任何這樣做的義務。有關風險因素的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告。

I will now turn the call over to Willy.

我現在將把電話轉給威利。

Thank you, Kelsey, and good morning, everyone. 2022 was a challenging year for the debt markets, commercial real estate industry and Walker & Dunlop. Since going public in 2010, we have generated outstanding shareholder returns of over 800%. Yet in 2022, not only was our stock price down precipitously, but we did not achieve our annual financial targets. While the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 425 basis points, is the direct reason for the commercial real estate financing and sales markets falling apart, we take full accountability for our 2022 performance.

謝謝你，凱爾西，大家早上好。 2022 年對債務市場、商業房地產行業和 Walker & Dunlop 來說是充滿挑戰的一年。自 2010 年上市以來，我們的股東回報率超過 800%。然而到了2022年，我們不僅股價暴跌，還沒有完成年度財務目標。雖然美聯儲加息 425 個基點是商業房地產融資和銷售市場崩潰的直接原因，但我們對 2022 年的業績負全部責任。

On this earnings call last year, we outlined significant growth for Walker & Dunlop not knowing the extent of the dramatic -- of the Federal Reserve's tightening plan. And as the rate hikes got more consistent and significant, the commercial real estate transaction market slowed down dramatically. We closed $11.2 billion of total transaction volume in Q4, down 59% from Q4 of 2021, generating total revenues of $283 million, down 31% from Q4 of 2021. Diluted earnings per share was $1.24, down 49% from the previous year, reflective of the dramatic deceleration in capital markets activity we saw in the back half of the year.

在去年的這次財報電話會議上，我們概述了 Walker & Dunlop 的顯著增長，而不知道美聯儲緊縮計劃的戲劇性程度。隨著加息變得更加持續和顯著，商業房地產交易市場急劇放緩。我們在第四季度完成了 112 億美元的總交易量，比 2021 年第四季度下降了 59%，產生了 2.83 億美元的總收入，比 2021 年第四季度下降了 31%。稀釋後每股收益為 1.24 美元，比上一年下降了 49%，反映了我們在今年下半年看到的資本市場活動急劇減速的原因。

Full year debt financing and sales volume was $63 billion, down only 7% year-over-year, generating revenues of $1.3 billion, flat from 2021. Full year diluted earnings per share was $6.36 down 22% from 2021, primarily due to significant declines in mortgage servicing rights from our Fannie Mae and HUD loan originations. The dramatic drop in MSR revenues was due to pricing with Fannie Mae and overall lending volumes with HUD. The rising interest rate environment in Q3 and Q4 forced us to adjust pricing on our Fannie Mae loans to make deals work for our clients, which resulted in lower guarantee fees for Fannie Mae, and lower servicing fees for Walker & Dunlop.

全年債務融資和銷售額為 630 億美元，同比僅下降 7%，產生收入 13 億美元，與 2021 年持平。全年攤薄後每股收益為 6.36 美元，較 2021 年下降 22%，主要原因是大幅下降從我們的 Fannie Mae 和 HUD 貸款機構獲得抵押貸款服務權。 MSR 收入的急劇下降是由於 Fannie Mae 的定價和 HUD 的整體貸款量。第三季度和第四季度利率上升的環境迫使我們調整 Fannie Mae 貸款的定價，以使交易對我們的客戶有利，這導致 Fannie Mae 的擔保費降低，Walker & Dunlop 的服務費也降低。

To understand the magnitude of this fee compression, had our 2022 Fannie Mae loan originations been done with 2021 average servicing fees, it would have added over $2 of diluted earnings per share on the year, a 31% increase over our reported earnings per share. As the Fed slows the pace of tightening and rates stabilize, we expect servicing fees to revert to historic profitability levels. Our Q4 HUD volume of $187 million was well below budget. And while we finished the year as the #2 HUD lender, $1.1 billion of loan originations was less than 50% of our annual budget expectation. HUD has plenty of capital, particularly for multifamily construction loans, but until HUD modifies their lending programs to be more market competitive, deploying their capital will continue to be challenging.

要了解這種費用壓縮的幅度，如果我們在 2022 年發放房利美貸款時收取 2021 年的平均服務費，那麼當年的攤薄每股收益將增加 2 美元以上，比我們報告的每股收益增加 31%。隨著美聯儲放慢緊縮步伐和利率穩定，我們預計服務費將恢復到歷史盈利水平。我們第 4 季度的 HUD 量為 1.87 億美元，遠低於預算。雖然我們作為 HUD 貸方的第二名結束了這一年，但 11 億美元的貸款發放額不到我們年度預算預期的 50%。 HUD 擁有充足的資金，特別是用於多戶建築貸款，但在 HUD 修改其貸款計劃以更具市場競爭力之前，部署其資金將繼續面臨挑戰。

Even with the decreased profitability in Fannie and dramatically lower volumes with HUD, our scaled lending partnerships with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed their value in the third and fourth quarters. Floating rate loans were in high demand in Q4, an area of the market Freddie Mac dominates, and we closed $2.3 billion of Freddie loans, up 49% year-over-year. Our Freddie Mac originations totaled $6.3 billion for the year, making W&D the third largest Freddie Mac Optigo lender up 1 position in the lead tables.

即使 Fannie 的盈利能力下降以及 HUD 的交易量大幅下降，我們與 Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac 的規模化貸款合作夥伴關係在第三和第四季度顯示了它們的價值。浮動利率貸款在第四季度需求旺盛，這是房地美主導的市場領域，我們完成了 23 億美元的房地美貸款，同比增長 49%。我們的 Freddie Mac 全年貸款總額為 63 億美元，使 W&D 成為第三大 Freddie Mac Optigo 貸方，在領先表中上升一位。

As I begin to talk about our Fannie Mae volumes, we are going to run a graphic produced by CoStar that shows Walker & Dunlop's incredible market share gains with Fannie Mae over the past 5 years. Our Q4 volume with Fannie Mae was only $995 million due to Freddie Mac's competitiveness. Our full year 2022 Fannie Mae volume of $10 billion brought us to 16.5% market share, an all-time high and solidified our ranking as the #1 Fannie Mae DUS lender for the fourth consecutive year. Our Fannie Mae lending volumes have consistently grown as this chart clearly demonstrates and we have taken significant market share from the competition over the past 5 years.

當我開始談論我們的 Fannie Mae 銷量時，我們將運行由 CoStar 製作的圖表，顯示 Walker & Dunlop 在過去 5 年中與 Fannie Mae 一起獲得的令人難以置信的市場份額增長。由於房地美的競爭力，我們與房利美的第四季度交易量僅為 9.95 億美元。我們 2022 年全年 100 億美元的房利美交易量使我們的市場份額達到 16.5%，創歷史新高，並鞏固了我們連續第四年排名第一的房利美 DUS 貸方。我們的 Fannie Mae 貸款量一直在增長，正如這張圖表清楚地表明的那樣，我們在過去 5 年中從競爭中奪取了顯著的市場份額。

We ended the year with combined GSE market share of 12.7%, making us the largest GSE lender in the country for 2022, something we have never done before. This scale with the 2 largest providers of capital to the multifamily industry will pay significant benefits to Walker & Dunlop and our clients in 2023 and beyond.

我們以 12.7% 的合併 GSE 市場份額結束了這一年，使我們成為該國 2022 年最大的 GSE 貸方，這是我們以前從未做過的事情。與多戶家庭行業的兩家最大資本提供者的這種規模將在 2023 年及以後為 Walker & Dunlop 和我們的客戶帶來巨大利益。

As large banks, CMBS lenders, debt funds and life insurance companies stepped back from the market in Q4, our capital markets team had a solid quarter, closing $4.4 billion in financing volume. While this volume was up 66% from Q4 of 2021, it was an accomplishment given overall market volatility and lack of liquidity. On the year, our debt brokerage volume totaled $25.9 billion a decrease of 13% from 2021 when capital was free and debt funds were lending on any asset they could find.

隨著大型銀行、CMBS 貸方、債務基金和人壽保險公司在第四季度退出市場，我們的資本市場團隊表現穩健，完成了 44 億美元的融資額。雖然這一交易量比 2021 年第四季度增長了 66%，但考慮到整體市場波動和流動性不足，這是一項成就。這一年，我們的債務經紀業務量總計 259 億美元，比 2021 年下降了 13%，當時資本是自由的，債務基金在他們能找到的任何資產上放貸。

Q4 multifamily property sales volume of $3.3 billion was similarly down 64% year-over-year, but $3.3 billion was still healthy volume during the quarter. Our full year 2022 sales volume was $19.7 billion, up 2% from 2021 in a market that was off 17%. As this slide shows, on institutional size multifamily sales, W&D grew market share from 7.8% in 2021 to 10.2% in 2022.

第 4 季度的多戶住宅銷售額為 33 億美元，同比下降 64%，但 33 億美元在本季度仍然是健康的銷量。我們 2022 年全年的銷售額為 197 億美元，比 2021 年增長 2%，而市場下降了 17%。正如這張幻燈片所示，在機構規模的多戶住宅銷售中，W&D 的市場份額從 2021 年的 7.8% 增長到 2022 年的 10.2%。

Look at the precipitous fall with some of our largest competitors on this slide. W&D, which only entered this market in 2015 is firmly in the mix to have the largest multifamily sales platform in the country. The Mortgage Bankers Association recently released their commercial real estate finance forecast, which, as you can see on this slide, projects the 2023 multifamily financing market to decline 16% to $384 billion and the total commercial real estate finance market to be down 15% to $684 billion. Freddie Mac's 2023 multifamily market estimate is larger at $440 billion. A market of this size with the GSEs playing an outsized role presents a huge opportunity for Walker & Dunlop to grow volumes and capture market share. And looking to 2024, the MBA estimates that multifamily origination volumes grew 26% to $486 billion and total CRE originations grew 32% to $906 billion. These estimates are compelling. And just as Walker & Dunlop outperformed during the great financial crisis and COVID pandemic, our team, brand and technology should outperform once again.

在這張幻燈片上看看我們一些最大的競爭對手的急劇下滑。 W&D 於 2015 年才進入該市場，穩居全國最大的多戶銷售平台之列。抵押貸款銀行家協會最近發布了他們的商業房地產金融預測，正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣，該預測預計 2023 年多戶家庭融資市場將下降 16% 至 3840 億美元，商業房地產金融市場總額將下降 15% 至6840億美元。房地美 (Freddie Mac) 對 2023 年多戶住宅市場的估計更大，為 4,400 億美元。如此規模的市場，GSE 發揮著巨大的作用，為 Walker & Dunlop 提供了擴大銷量和占領市場份額的巨大機會。展望 2024 年，MBA 估計多戶家庭發起量增長 26% 至 4,860 億美元，CRE 發起總額增長 32% 至 9,060 億美元。這些估計很有說服力。正如 Walker & Dunlop 在金融危機和 COVID 大流行期間表現出色一樣，我們的團隊、品牌和技術也應該再次表現出色。

Many of our competitor firms have announced layoffs. We assume that rates stabilize in 2023 and financing and sales activities increased in the back half of the year. So we are holding on to our entire team for the following reasons. First, we're an extremely efficient company. As you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, our revenue per employee is dramatically higher than the competition at right around $1 million per employee. As the middle graph shows, our efficiency ratio, defined as SG&A expense as a percentage of total revenues is dramatically better than the competition. Finally, as you can see on the right-hand graph, our adjusted EBITDA margin is at the high end of the peer set by a significant margin.

我們的許多競爭對手公司都宣布裁員。我們假設利率在 2023 年穩定，下半年融資和銷售活動增加。因此，出於以下原因，我們堅持保留整個團隊。首先，我們是一家效率極高的公司。正如您在這張幻燈片左側看到的那樣，我們每名員工的收入大大高於競爭對手，約為每名員工 100 萬美元。如中間圖表所示，我們的效率比（定義為 SG&A 費用佔總收入的百分比）明顯優於競爭對手。最後，正如您在右側圖表中看到的那樣，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率處於同行設定的高端，差距很大。

Second, we have licenses to access countercyclical capital from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD and achieved record market share with the GSEs in 2022. Third, we are exceptional with credit and only take risk on multifamily properties. We have seen no credit degradation in our at-risk loan servicing portfolio and with an average debt service coverage ratio of over 2x and no credit risk whatsoever on office buildings nor construction loans, we feel very good from a credit perspective.

其次，我們擁有從房利美、房地美和 HUD 獲得逆週期資本的許可，並在 2022 年與 GSE 取得了創紀錄的市場份額。第三，我們在信貸方面表現出色，只在多戶住宅物業上承擔風險。我們的風險貸款服務組合沒有出現信用降級，平均償債覆蓋率超過 2 倍，辦公樓和建築貸款沒有任何信用風險，從信用角度來看，我們感覺非常好。

Fourth, we have durable long-term revenue streams from our $123 billion servicing portfolio and $17 billion asset management business. Q4 servicing revenues were $77 million and topped $300 million for all of 2022. Added to that servicing revenue was escrow income of $53 million, which started the year at $2 million in Q1 and grew to $26 million by Q4. During the fourth quarter, cash revenues from mortgage originations, property sales, servicing and asset management and escrows drove adjusted EBITDA to $93 million, bringing full year EBITDA to $325 million, up 5% over the previous year. The strength in EBITDA is reflective of the business model we have built and clearly differentiates W&D from some of our more transaction-focused competitors.

第四，我們從 1230 億美元的服務組合和 170 億美元的資產管理業務中獲得了持久的長期收入來源。第 4 季度服務收入為 7700 萬美元，到 2022 年全年超過 3 億美元。除服務收入外，還有 5300 萬美元的託管收入，今年第一季度為 200 萬美元，到第四季度增長到 2600 萬美元。第四季度，來自抵押貸款發放、房地產銷售、服務和資產管理以及託管的現金收入推動調整後的 EBITDA 達到 9300 萬美元，使全年 EBITDA 達到 3.25 億美元，比上一年增長 5%。 EBITDA 的實力反映了我們已經建立的商業模式，並清楚地將 W&D 與我們一些更注重交易的競爭對手區分開來。

Finally, we are a great place to work, a designation earned for 8 of the last 11 years and have a history of zigging when others zag. We grew during the great financial crisis, and we're the first mortgage company to go public after the great financial crisis in December of 2010. And our financial performance during the pandemic wildly outperformed, allowing us to make 3 major acquisitions in 2021 and 2022 that are driving our future growth today.

最後，我們是一個理想的工作場所，在過去 11 年中有 8 年獲得此殊榮，並且在其他人步履蹣跚時也步履蹣跚。我們在大金融危機期間成長，我們是 2010 年 12 月大金融危機後第一家上市的抵押貸款公司。我們在大流行期間的財務業績表現出色，使我們能夠在 2021 年和 2022 年進行 3 次重大收購這正在推動我們今天的未來增長。

For these 5 reasons, we see great opportunity for growth over the coming years. Yet current market conditions require action. And as Greg will outline in a moment, we have cut costs to improve profitability. We cut expenses, eliminated significant discretionary spending and are not backfilling positions. And because our 2022 performance fell shy of our annual budget, we did not fully fund our bonus pool. We funded the general employee bonus pool at the highest level possible taking into account inflationary pressures and the tight labor markets and cut the senior executive bonus pool dramatically to accomplish this. The senior executive team was eligible for 50% bonuses due to meeting targets such as adjusted EBITDA, yet only received 25% bonuses to add funding to the general pool.

由於這 5 個原因，我們看到了未來幾年的巨大增長機會。然而，當前的市場狀況需要採取行動。正如格雷格稍後將概述的那樣，我們削減了成本以提高盈利能力。我們削減了開支，取消了大量可自由支配的支出，並且沒有回補職位。而且由於我們 2022 年的業績低於年度預算，我們沒有為獎金池提供全部資金。考慮到通貨膨脹壓力和勞動力市場緊張，我們以盡可能高的水平為普通員工獎金池提供資金，並大幅削減高管獎金池以實現這一目標。由於達到調整後的 EBITDA 等目標，高級管理團隊有資格獲得 50% 的獎金，但僅獲得 25% 的獎金以增加總資金池的資金。

As I said at the beginning, our 2022 performance was unacceptable, and the senior management team is responsible and accountable for it. While the capital markets continue to evolve daily, with our team in place and expectations for a more stable market in the second half of 2023, we are confident we can meet our 2023 financial goals and return to the growth that W&D investors have come to expect from us.

正如我一開始所說的，我們2022年的業績是不可接受的，高層管理團隊對此有責任和問責。雖然資本市場每天都在不斷發展，但隨著我們的團隊到位以及對 2023 年下半年市場更加穩定的預期，我們有信心能夠實現 2023 年的財務目標並恢復 W&D 投資者所期望的增長從我們這裡。

I will now turn the call over to Greg to discuss our Q4 and full year financial performance along with 2023 guidance, and then I'll come back with how we plan to execute in 2023 and beyond. Greg?

我現在將把電話轉給格雷格，討論我們的第四季度和全年財務業績以及 2023 年的指導，然後我會回來討論我們計劃如何在 2023 年及以後執行。格雷格？

Thank you, Will, and good morning, everyone. Our $11.2 billion of fourth quarter transaction volume generated total revenues of $283 million, down 31% from the same quarter last year and diluted earnings per share of $1.24, down 49% compared to last year. As a result of the challenging fourth quarter market dynamics Willy just described and the associated impacts on our deal-level profitability, our operating margin and return on equity remained below our target ranges at 17% and 10%, respectively.

謝謝你，威爾，大家早上好。我們 112 億美元的第四季度交易量產生了 2.83 億美元的總收入，比去年同期下降 31%，攤薄後每股收益為 1.24 美元，比去年下降 49%。由於 Willy 剛剛描述的具有挑戰性的第四季度市場動態以及對我們的交易水平盈利能力的相關影響，我們的營業利潤率和股本回報率分別低於我們的目標範圍 17% 和 10%。

We continue to generate durable and growing cash revenues from our servicing and asset management businesses and benefit from the variable nature of our compensation structure when transaction volumes declined. As a result, adjusted EBITDA was $93 million, down only 16% from the same quarter last year despite a 59% year-over-year decline in total transaction volumes. Notably, recent acquisitions, Alliant and Zelman, contributed $42 million of revenues this quarter and over $130 million of primarily cash revenues this year, highlighting the stability of those 2 businesses and the value of those recent investments.

我們繼續從我們的服務和資產管理業務中產生持久且不斷增長的現金收入，並在交易量下降時受益於我們薪酬結構的可變性。因此，儘管總交易量同比下降 59%，但調整後的 EBITDA 為 9300 萬美元，僅比去年同期下降 16%。值得注意的是，最近的收購 Alliant 和 Zelman 本季度貢獻了 4200 萬美元的收入，今年貢獻了超過 1.3 億美元的主要現金收入，突顯了這兩項業務的穩定性和近期投資的價值。

We also continue to benefit from earnings on our escrow deposits, which are tied to short-term rates and grew dramatically throughout the year increasing to $26 million in Q4, up from just $2 million a year ago. Entering 2022, we were confident that our investments in people, brand and technology along with a strong and loyal client base and a stable interest rate environment would allow us to continue growing revenues, diluted EPS and adjusted EBITDA by double digits and deliver a high 20% operating margin and high teens to low 20% return on equity.

我們還繼續受益於我們的託管存款收益，這些收益與短期利率掛鉤，並且在全年急劇增長，從一年前的 200 萬美元增加到第四季度的 2600 萬美元。進入 2022 年，我們相信我們在人員、品牌和技術方面的投資以及強大而忠誠的客戶群和穩定的利率環境將使我們能夠繼續增加收入、稀釋每股收益和調整後的 EBITDA 兩位數，並實現 20 % 營業利潤率和高十幾歲到低 20% 的股本回報率。

Our outperformance during the first half of the year supported that confidence, but the unprecedented movements in interest rates and associated impacts on liquidity supplied to commercial real estate brought on a steep decline in transaction volumes and noncash MSR margins throughout the second half of the year, and we did not meet our targets.

我們上半年的出色表現支持了這種信心，但前所未有的利率變動以及對商業房地產流動性的相關影響導致整個下半年的交易量和非現金 MSR 利潤率急劇下降，我們沒有達到我們的目標。

Top line results remained healthy with total transaction volume of $63 billion, down only 7% and total revenues of $1.3 billion flat compared to 2021. And we generated $325 million in adjusted EBITDA, up 5% over the prior year. However, diluted earnings per share ended the year at $6.36 down 22% compared to last year and annual return on equity and operating margin were 13% and 21%, respectively, also below our targets.

與 2021 年相比，總交易量為 630 億美元，僅下降 7%，總收入為 13 億美元，收入持平。我們產生了 3.25 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，比上年增長 5%。然而，年底每股攤薄收益為 6.36 美元，比去年下降 22%，年度股本回報率和營業利潤率分別為 13% 和 21%，也低於我們的目標。

As commercial real estate transaction activity fell over the last several months, we evaluated our business needs and operating model and made adjustments. During the fourth quarter, we terminated the majority of our temporary employment contracts, stop backfilling positions and dramatically reduced growth-related hiring. And as a result, our head count has steadily declined since October. We also look closely at discretionary spending and reduced travel and entertainment, terminated several third-party service contracts and renegotiated a handful of leases across the country. We incurred minimal charges in the fourth quarter in connection with these decisions. And in total, reduced the run rate of personnel and controllable general and administrative expenses by more than $15 million.

由於商業地產交易活動在過去幾個月有所下降，我們評估了我們的業務需求和運營模式並做出了調整。在第四季度，我們終止了大部分臨時僱傭合同，停止了回填職位，並大幅減少了與增長相關的招聘。因此，自 10 月以來，我們的員工人數穩步下降。我們還密切關注可自由支配的支出，減少旅行和娛樂，終止了幾項第三方服務合同，並重新談判了全國范圍內的一些租約。我們在第四季度因這些決定而產生的費用很少。總的來說，減少了超過 1500 萬美元的人員運行率和可控的一般和管理費用。

Staying on expenses, I want to spend a few minutes on another adjustment made during the fourth quarter. As a reminder, the acquisitions of GeoPhy and Alliant were structured with our announced tied to performance milestone. To date, Alliant has achieved $36 million of its $100 million earn-out ahead of our expectations, while GeoPhy has not yet achieved any of its $205 million earn-out. We are required to revalue our earn-out liabilities quarterly. And during the fourth quarter, we recognized a net reduction of $13 million to the other expenses line item associated with these revaluations.

繼續開支，我想花幾分鐘時間談談第四季度的另一項調整。提醒一下，對 GeoPhy 和 Alliant 的收購是根據我們宣布的業績里程碑構建的。迄今為止，Alliant 已超出我們的預期實現其 1 億美元盈利中的 3600 萬美元，而 GeoPhy 尚未實現其 2.05 億美元盈利中的任何一項。我們需要每季度重估我們的盈利負債。在第四季度，我們確認與這些重估相關的其他費用項目淨減少 1300 萬美元。

The Alliant team continues to perform above our expectations and is well on track to achieving the full earn-out. Affordable housing in this country is front and center, and we feel very good about that acquisition and the integration of Alliant in only our first year together, and we incurred an expense of $5 million associated with the revaluation of this earn-out.

Alliant 團隊的表現繼續超出我們的預期，並且有望實現全部收益。這個國家的經濟適用房是重中之重，我們對收購和 Alliant 的整合感覺非常好，這只是我們在一起的第一年，我們因重新評估這項收益而產生了 500 萬美元的費用。

With respect to GeoPhy, we aligned the earnout milestones with the growth of 2 emerging businesses, small balance lending and appraisals. While both businesses grew revenues in 2022, the growth was less than our expectations when we structured the earn-outs because we did not anticipate the economic disruption that began last summer. Therefore, we reduced the carrying value of the GeoPhy earn-out liability by $18 million. We see opportunity for growth in 2023 as we continue to capture market share in the small balance lending and appraisal sectors. And we remain focused on scaling both businesses toward our Drive to '25 objectives, which could also enable GeoPhy to achieve the full value of the earnout. We will continue to revalue both earn-outs periodically and expect to make further evaluation adjustments as we true up actual performance to our estimates over the next several years.

關於 GeoPhy，我們將盈利里程碑與 2 個新興業務、小額貸款和評估的增長保持一致。雖然這兩家公司在 2022 年的收入都有所增長，但增長低於我們在構建收益時的預期，因為我們沒有預料到去年夏天開始的經濟動盪。因此，我們將 GeoPhy 盈利負債的賬面價值減少了 1800 萬美元。隨著我們繼續在小額貸款和評估領域佔據市場份額，我們看到了 2023 年的增長機會。我們仍然專注於將這兩項業務擴展到我們的 Drive to '25 目標，這也可以使 GeoPhy 實現收益的全部價值。我們將繼續定期重估這兩種收益，並期望在我們將未來幾年的實際業績與我們的估計相符時進行進一步的評估調整。

In 2022, we introduced segment financial results to provide further insight and transparency into our operating structure and financial performance. As shown on Slide 11, our Capital Markets segment, which includes our transaction-related businesses -- excuse me, includes our transaction-related businesses. Transaction volumes for 2022 were down 7% compared to last year, generating $709 million of revenues, down 20%. Revenues declined more steeply than transaction volumes due primarily to tighter servicing fees on new Fannie Mae loans, causing us 33% decline in noncash MSR revenues.

2022 年，我們推出了分部財務業績，以進一步了解我們的運營結構和財務業績並提高透明度。如幻燈片 11 所示，我們的資本市場部門包括我們的交易相關業務——對不起，包括我們的交易相關業務。與去年相比，2022 年的交易量下降了 7%，產生的收入為 7.09 億美元，下降了 20%。收入下降幅度大於交易量，這主要是由於房利美新貸款的服務費收緊，導致我們的非現金 MSR 收入下降了 33%。

Servicing fee margins on new loans remain below historical levels to start 2023. And although multifamily lending demand remains strong, particularly with the GSEs, liquidity and transaction volumes supporting other asset classes face headwinds in 2023, and we faced challenging year-over-year comps for the next 2 quarters.

從 2023 年開始，新貸款的服務費利潤率仍低於歷史水平。儘管多戶貸款需求依然強勁，尤其是 GSE，但支持其他資產類別的流動性和交易量在 2023 年面臨阻力，我們面臨著具有挑戰性的年度比較在接下來的兩個季度。

That said, a little more than 60% of compensation costs for this segment are variable, mitigating expected declines in transaction-related revenues. Importantly, we have established a team with a track record of executing for our clients through difficult conditions and we believe in the long-term outlook of the commercial real estate sector. As Willy stated, this team has captured market share and delivered immense value to our clients through unprecedented volatility, we will continue making investments to keep this team intact and remain focused on achieving our long-term Drive to '25 objectives of $65 billion of debt financing volumes and $25 billion of property sales volume. Our SAM segment includes the performance of our servicing activities and asset management businesses.

也就是說，該細分市場有略多於 60% 的薪酬成本是可變的，從而緩解了與交易相關的收入的預期下降。重要的是，我們已經建立了一個團隊，在困難的條件下為我們的客戶執行記錄，我們相信商業房地產行業的長期前景。正如 Willy 所說，該團隊通過前所未有的波動奪取了市場份額並為我們的客戶帶來了巨大價值，我們將繼續進行投資以保持該團隊的完整性，並繼續專注於實現我們的長期目標 Drive to '25 650 億美元的債務融資額和 250 億美元的房地產銷售額。我們的 SAM 部門包括我們的服務活動和資產管理業務的表現。

Turning to Slide 11. We ended the -- Slide 12. We ended the quarter with $123 billion servicing portfolio, $17 billion of assets under management, and $2.7 billion of escrow balances, generating full year revenues of $507 million, up 34%. With short-term rates expected to remain high, we will continue to see increases in our escrow and other interest income, which grew from $8 million in 2021 to $51 million in 2022. Given the current rate outlook, we expect to generate between $120 million and $130 million of escrow and other interest income in 2023, more than double our interest earnings in 2022.

轉到幻燈片 11。我們結束了 - 幻燈片 12。我們在本季度結束時擁有 1230 億美元的服務組合、170 億美元的管理資產和 27 億美元的託管餘額，全年收入為 5.07 億美元，增長 34%。由於短期利率預計將保持高位，我們將繼續看到我們的託管和其他利息收入增加，從 2021 年的 800 萬美元增加到 2022 年的 5100 萬美元。鑑於目前的利率前景，我們預計將產生 1.2 億美元的收入以及 2023 年 1.3 億美元的託管和其他利息收入，是我們 2022 年利息收入的兩倍多。

Also included in our SAM segment is the impact of forecasted losses on our at-risk portfolio, which was a net benefit of $14 million in 2022 as we updated our loss forecast and unwound the remaining pandemic-related reserves. Our at-risk portfolio remains incredibly healthy. We averaged less than 1 basis point of losses over the last 3 years. The average debt service coverage ratio in our portfolio is over 2x, and we held only 7 basis points of delinquent loans in our portfolio on the December 31st.

我們的 SAM 部分還包括預測損失對我們風險投資組合的影響，這是 2022 年 1400 萬美元的淨收益，因為我們更新了我們的損失預測並解除了剩餘的與大流行相關的準備金。我們的風險投資組合仍然非常健康。在過去 3 年中，我們平均虧損不到 1 個基點。我們投資組合的平均償債覆蓋率超過 2 倍，並且在 12 月 31 日我們的投資組合中僅持有 7 個基點的拖欠貸款。

We hold credit exposure exclusively on multifamily loans and the asset class continues to perform exceptionally well. We will update the historical loss rate used in our loss forecast again in Q1 2023, just as we did in Q1 last year. Our loss forecast will contemplate the economic headwinds we face, but we are also updating the historical loss rate with another year of near 0 loan losses and anticipate recognizing a benefit just as we did a year ago when we updated our loss forecast.

我們僅持有多戶家庭貸款的信用敞口，該資產類別繼續表現出色。與去年第一季度一樣，我們將在 2023 年第一季度再次更新損失預測中使用的歷史損失率。我們的損失預測將考慮我們面臨的經濟逆風，但我們也將歷史損失率更新為另一年接近 0 的貸款損失，並預計會像一年前更新損失預測時那樣確認收益。

Our corporate segment represents the corporate G&A of our business, which includes the majority of our fixed overhead expenses and our corporate debt expense. In 2022, the corporate segment included a onetime gain recognized in the first quarter of $40 million, resulting from the GeoPhy acquisition and a tax benefit of $6 million recognized in the third quarter when we restructured our corporate organization chart and repatriated certain assets acquired from GeoPhy. These 2 items generated over $1 of diluted EPS and will not be repeated in 2023.

我們的公司部門代表我們業務的公司 G&A，其中包括我們的大部分固定間接費用和我們的公司債務費用。 2022 年，企業部門包括第一季度因收購 GeoPhy 而確認的 4000 萬美元一次性收益，以及第三季度重組公司組織結構圖並將從 GeoPhy 收購的某些資產匯回國內時確認的 600 萬美元稅收優惠.這 2 個項目產生了超過 1 美元的稀釋後每股收益，並且不會在 2023 年重複出現。

One of the primary drivers of expenses within the corporate segment is interest expense on our corporate debt. And this quarter, we updated our segment reporting to allocate corporate debt expense to provide a better reflection of the performance of each segment. This year, interest expense totaled $34 million, up $8 million in 2021 -- up from $8 million in 2021 due to an increase in debt to support our acquisition of Alliant and the dramatic increases in short-term rates over the last year. In January, we increased the size of our term loan by $200 million to $795 million and used $116 million of the proceeds to pay down debt assumed in the Alliant acquisition.

公司部門內支出的主要驅動因素之一是我們公司債務的利息支出。本季度，我們更新了分部報告以分配公司債務費用，以更好地反映每個分部的業績。今年，利息支出總計 3400 萬美元，比 2021 年增加 800 萬美元——高於 2021 年的 800 萬美元，原因是為支持我們收購 Alliant 而增加的債務以及去年短期利率的大幅上漲。 1 月份，我們將定期貸款規模增加了 2 億美元，達到 7.95 億美元，並將所得款項中的 1.16 億美元用於償還在收購 Alliant 時承擔的債務。

A slightly higher debt balance and a full year of higher short-term rates will result in continued growth in interest expense in 2023. However, we raised roughly $80 million of strategic capital from the debt upside and eliminated roughly $25 million of mandatory annual principal paydowns by paying off the Alliant debt, creating greater capital flexibility.

略高的債務餘額和全年較高的短期利率將導致 2023 年的利息支出持續增長。但是，我們從債務上行籌集了大約 8000 萬美元的戰略資本，並取消了大約 2500 萬美元的強制性年度本金償還通過償還 Alliant 債務，創造更大的資本靈活性。

Importantly, as shown on Slide 13, our debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at December 31 was 2.2x and the $120 million to $130 million of escrow and other interest income expected from our escrow balances in 2023 is more than offset the increased cost of borrowing. As we look ahead to 2023, we don't have a crystal ball, but we are planning for short-term rates to remain at or above current levels all year. Consequently, we are managing our business with the expectation that transaction activity in the first half of this year will be slower than the same period last year, but returned to growth in the second half of the year.

重要的是，如幻燈片 13 所示，我們截至 12 月 31 日的債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.2 倍，預計 2023 年我們的託管餘額將產生 1.2 億美元至 1.3 億美元的託管和其他利息收入，足以抵消增加的借貸成本。展望 2023 年，我們沒有水晶球，但我們計劃全年將短期利率保持在或高於當前水平。因此，我們在管理我們的業務時預計今年上半年的交易活動將比去年同期放緩，但在下半年恢復增長。

We are planning for servicing fees on new Fannie Mae lending to remain below historical levels until late in 2023. Under this scenario, we expect diluted EPS to be flat in 2023 as the onetime acquisition-related revenues I mentioned earlier, are replaced with higher, cash-driven servicing and escrow revenues. That, in turn, will drive our ability to deliver double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA this year. We also expect operating margins to remain in the low 20% range, and ROE to remain in the low teens until transaction activity and servicing fees on new loans normalized.

我們計劃在 2023 年底之前將房利美新貸款的服務費保持在歷史水平以下。在這種情況下，我們預計稀釋後每股收益將在 2023 年持平，因為我之前提到的一次性收購相關收入將被更高的收入所取代，現金驅動的服務和託管收入。反過來，這將推動我們今年實現調整後 EBITDA 兩位數增長的能力。我們還預計營業利潤率將保持在 20% 的較低範圍內，股本回報率將保持在較低的十幾歲，直到新貸款的交易活動和服務費正常化。

As we integrated recent acquisitions this year and dealt with the impacts of an unprecedented evolving macroeconomic environment, we felt that the core performance of Walker & Dunlop's business model was being overshadowed. Therefore, we are introducing a new metric called adjusted core EPS, which better reflects the operating performance of our business by eliminating large swings that can occur from noncash MSR revenues and expenses and onetime acquisition-related revenues and are not revaluation adjustment.

當我們整合今年最近的收購併應對前所未有的不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境的影響時，我們感到 Walker & Dunlop 商業模式的核心績效被掩蓋了。因此，我們引入了一種稱為調整後核心 EPS 的新指標，該指標通過消除非現金 MSR 收入和支出以及一次性收購相關收入可能發生的大幅波動，而不是重估調整，從而更好地反映我們業務的經營業績。

As shown on Slide 15, adjusted core EPS eliminates differences between actual and estimated credit losses, removes the impacts of both amortization and depreciation and noncash MSR revenues and removes the impact of earnout and other acquisition-related revenues and expenses. Also included on the slide is a look back at the trend in adjusted core EPS over the last 3 years. Although adjusted core EPS fell just over 10% in 2022, that decline was largely driven by the overall decline in transaction volumes and related revenues. For 2023, we expect to grow adjusted core EPS by double digits, largely on the continued growth in servicing, asset management and escrow related revenues. We will continue to share updates and guidance on this metric in the coming quarters and years as we think it provides investors with a transparent view into the overall health of our business.

如幻燈片 15 所示，調整後的核心每股收益消除了實際和估計信用損失之間的差異，消除了攤銷和折舊以及非現金 MSR 收入的影響，並消除了盈利和其他與收購相關的收入和支出的影響。幻燈片中還包括對過去 3 年調整後核心每股收益趨勢的回顧。儘管調整後的核心每股收益在 2022 年下降了略高於 10%，但下降的主要原因是交易量和相關收入的整體下降。到 2023 年，我們預計調整後的核心每股收益將以兩位數的速度增長，這主要是由於服務、資產管理和託管相關收入的持續增長。我們將在未來幾個季度和幾年繼續分享有關該指標的更新和指導，因為我們認為它為投資者提供了一個透明的視角來了解我們業務的整體健康狀況。

Turning briefly to capital allocation in 2023. We ended the year with $226 million of cash before closing our debt refinance in January. Our cash always decreased seasonally in the first quarter as we pay annual subjective and performance-related bonuses and settle our annual tax liability. Our business will continue to generate strong cash flow in 2023 and we have the financial flexibility to prioritize investing capital back into the business closely with returning capital to shareholders. Yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.63 per share, a 5% increase and authorized a $75 million share repurchase program. This is our fifth annual dividend increase since we initiated the dividend in February 2018 at $0.25 per share and represents a cumulative increase of 152% over the last 5 years.

簡要談談 2023 年的資本配置。在 1 月份結束債務再融資之前，我們以 2.26 億美元的現金結束了這一年。我們的現金在第一季度總是季節性減少，因為我們支付年度主觀和績效相關的獎金並結清年度納稅義務。我們的業務將在 2023 年繼續產生強勁的現金流，並且我們具有財務靈活性，可以優先將資本重新投入業務，並將資本返還給股東。昨天，我們的董事會批准了每股 0.63 美元的季度股息，增加了 5%，並批准了 7500 萬美元的股票回購計劃。這是我們自 2018 年 2 月以每股 0.25 美元的股息開始派息以來的第五次年度股息增長，過去 5 年累計增長 152%。

Our outlook for 2023 and expected double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA gives us confidence to increase the dividend yet again while still retaining capital to support the business. We entered 2023 with conviction that we have the right team in place and a brand that continues to gain market share. We are focused on leveraging technology to create operating efficiencies and scale emerging businesses for the long term. We also have an experienced management team that has dealt with market disruptions and recession and not only prevailed but grown.

我們對 2023 年的展望和調整後 EBITDA 的預期兩位數增長讓我們有信心再次增加股息，同時仍保留資本來支持業務。進入 2023 年，我們堅信我們擁有合適的團隊和一個繼續獲得市場份額的品牌。我們專注於利用技術來提高運營效率並長期擴展新興業務。我們還擁有一支經驗豐富的管理團隊，他們應對了市場動盪和衰退，不僅取得了成功，而且不斷壯大。

Our business model is diversified due to the strategic investments we made over the past few years and durable due to our servicing portfolio that has steadily grown over time. Post cost management, combined with our steady cash flow generation, will allow us to weather the current storm and emerge poise for growth. Most importantly, we remain focused on investing in our business to achieve our long-term Drive to '25 objectives and delivering returns for our shareholders.

由於我們在過去幾年中進行的戰略投資，我們的業務模式變得多樣化，並且由於我們的服務組合隨著時間的推移穩步增長而持久。後期成本管理，加上我們穩定的現金流產生，將使我們能夠度過當前的風暴，並為增長做好準備。最重要的是，我們仍然專注於投資我們的業務，以實現我們的長期 Drive to '25 目標並為我們的股東帶來回報。

Thank you for joining us this morning and for your continued confidence in Walker & Dunlop. I'll now turn the call back over to Willy.

感謝您今天早上加入我們，感謝您對 Walker & Dunlop 的持續信任。我現在將電話轉回給威利。

Thank you, Greg. Rarely, if ever, has forecasting for our business and the broader economy been more challenging. On one hand, multifamily fundamentals are extremely strong. The public multifamily REITs who have already reported showed solid growth in rents and compressing cap rates to start the year. With over 80% of Walker & Dunlop revenues coming from the multifamily industry and 100% of our credit risk being on multifamily properties, we feel great about our market positioning. And as the largest GSE lender in the country, we feel extremely good about our access to capital to meet our clients' borrowing needs.

謝謝你，格雷格。很少，如果有的話，對我們的業務和更廣泛的經濟進行預測更具挑戰性。一方面，多戶住宅的基本面非常強勁。已經發布報告的公共多戶型房地產投資信託基金在年初顯示出租金穩步增長和壓縮資本化率。 Walker & Dunlop 超過 80% 的收入來自多戶住宅行業，而我們 100% 的信用風險都來自多戶住宅物業，我們對自己的市場定位感到滿意。作為該國最大的 GSE 貸方，我們對能夠獲得資金以滿足客戶的借貸需求感到非常滿意。

And yet after watching the Federal Reserve's successive 75-basis-point rate hikes in the back half of 2022, literally sees the financing and sales markets, it's exceedingly difficult to predict when transaction volumes will return to a normalized pace. There are plenty of data points that give us optimism. At the National Multifamily Housing Council's Annual Conference in Las Vegas 3 weeks ago, the topic of discussion was when interest rates and cap rates stabilize to allow investors to transact again and not distress. One of Walker & Dunlop's largest warehouse lenders, a SIFI bank that halted all CRE lending in the back half of 2022, just offered to expand the size of our warehouse line and asked us to take down our unused capacity. And most of the lenders at the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Conference last week, we're looking to lend more on commercial real estate in 2023 than they did in 2022.

然而，在看到美聯儲在 2022 年下半年連續加息 75 個基點之後，從字面上看，融資和銷售市場，很難預測交易量何時會恢復正常速度。有很多數據點讓我們感到樂觀。 3 週前在拉斯維加斯舉行的全國多戶住房委員會年會上，討論的主題是利率和資本化率何時穩定下來，讓投資者能夠再次交易，而不是陷入困境。 Walker & Dunlop 最大的倉庫貸款機構之一，一家在 2022 年下半年停止了所有 CRE 貸款的 SIFI 銀行，剛剛提出擴大我們倉庫生產線的規模，並要求我們取消未使用的容量。上週在抵押貸款銀行家協會年會上的大多數貸方表示，我們希望在 2023 年向商業房地產提供比 2022 年更多的貸款。

And finally, the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike earlier this month was well received by the market and prompted an uptick in transaction volumes. Yet clarity on whether the Fed raises 2 or 3 more times and by how much is keeping plenty of investors on the sidelines until they know the cap rate they are buying or financing they are using is properly priced. So we keep focusing at Walker & Dunlop on the things we control: meeting our clients' needs, investing in new businesses and technology, minding our expenses and maintaining an extraordinary team of professionals. And due to the strength of our business model and recurring revenues, we can afford to do this to further extend our competitive advantage in the marketplace.

最後，美聯儲本月早些時候加息 25 個基點受到市場歡迎，並促使交易量上升。然而，對於美聯儲是否再加息 2 次或 3 次以及加息次數的明確性，許多投資者都保持觀望，直到他們知道他們購買的上限利率或他們使用的融資的價格是正確的。因此，在 Walker & Dunlop，我們一直專注於我們控制的事情：滿足客戶的需求、投資新業務和技術、控制開支以及維持一支非凡的專業團隊。由於我們的商業模式和經常性收入的優勢，我們有能力這樣做以進一步擴大我們在市場上的競爭優勢。

We are still confident in achieving our 5-year strategic plan called the Drive to '25. Hitting the $65 billion debt financing goal will be challenging. We will either need to significantly outperform the market with the team we have in place today as we have a track record of doing or add to our team through acquisitions as we also have a track record of doing. To put numbers to this, to achieve our $65 billion target, we will need to grow originations at a 14% compound annual growth rate over the next 3 years, which is significantly lower than our 10-year compound annual growth rate of 20%.

我們仍然有信心實現名為 Drive to '25 的 5 年戰略計劃。實現 650 億美元的債務融資目標將具有挑戰性。我們要么需要通過我們今天擁有的團隊顯著超越市場，因為我們有做事的記錄，或者通過收購增加我們的團隊，因為我們也有做事的記錄。用數字來說明這一點，為了實現我們 650 億美元的目標，我們需要在未來 3 年以 14% 的複合年增長率來增加原創，這大大低於我們 10 年 20% 的複合年增長率。

Our property sales volume target is $25 billion. And having just sold under $20 billion last year, we are very confident in achieving this target. Our investment sales team expanded volumes by 2% in a market that contracted by 17% last year. And this exceptional team has the opportunity to not only exceed our 2025 goal but expand into other asset classes such as industrial, retail, office and hospitality sales. And all of this growth, whether in multifamily or new asset classes will drive incremental debt and equity financing to Walker & Dunlop. Our servicing portfolio will grow to over $160 billion if we achieve our debt financing goals, and our asset management business already exceeds its Drive to '25 goal of $10 billion.

我們的房地產銷售量目標是 250 億美元。去年剛剛售出不到 200 億美元，我們對實現這一目標非常有信心。我們的投資銷售團隊在去年收縮 17% 的市場中擴大了 2% 的銷量。這個傑出的團隊不僅有機會超越我們的 2025 年目標，而且有機會擴展到其他資產類別，例如工業、零售、辦公和酒店銷售。所有這些增長，無論是多戶家庭還是新資產類別，都將推動 Walker & Dunlop 增加債務和股權融資。如果我們實現債務融資目標，我們的服務組合將增長到超過 1600 億美元，我們的資產管理業務已經超過其 Drive to '25 100 億美元的目標。

Revisiting the SAM segment slide Greg just walked through, both servicing and asset management showed tremendous value in 2022 and will continue to do so going forward. It is thanks to W&D's business model and the growth of our servicing and asset management businesses that we had annual transaction volumes fall 7% and yet held revenues flat and saw a 5% growth in EBITDA.

重新審視 Greg 剛剛瀏覽的 SAM 部分幻燈片，服務和資產管理在 2022 年都顯示出巨大的價值，並將在未來繼續這樣做。得益於 W&D 的商業模式以及我們服務和資產管理業務的增長，我們的年度交易量下降了 7%，但收入持平，EBITDA 增長了 5%。

Beyond our scaled financing, property sales, servicing and asset management businesses, we continue to invest in our emerging businesses and technology. Our proprietary loan database, Galaxy, is uncovering data-driven financing and sales opportunities that our competition isn't finding. And our technology-enabled small balance lending and appraisal businesses continue to gain market share and will begin contributing meaningful revenues at higher margins over the next 3 years. Exactly as we did with our debt and property brokerage businesses, we will scale small balance lending and appraisals to over $100 million in annual revenues with both being primarily powered by technology.

除了我們規模化的融資、物業銷售、服務和資產管理業務，我們繼續投資於我們的新興業務和技術。我們專有的貸款數據庫 Galaxy 正在發現我們的競爭對手沒有發現的數據驅動的融資和銷售機會。我們的技術支持的小額貸款和評估業務繼續獲得市場份額，並將在未來 3 年內以更高的利潤率開始貢獻可觀的收入。正如我們對債務和財產經紀業務所做的那樣，我們將把小額貸款和評估規模擴大到超過 1 億美元的年收入，這兩項業務主要由技術提供支持。

Finally, our investments in Zelman, Alliant and GeoPhy are driving growth in new areas. Zelman's research is extremely sticky and exceeded its annual budget in 2022. Alliant also exceeded its annual budget, drove significant growth in Walker & Dunlop's affordable lending business and helped us recruit an exceptional affordable sales team. And while the GeoPhy earn-out is focused on the growth and profitability of our small balance lending and appraisal businesses, having the technological capabilities of GeoPhy inside W&D is transforming technology across the company.

最後，我們對 Zelman、Alliant 和 GeoPhy 的投資正在推動新領域的增長。 Zelman 的研究極具粘性，在 2022 年超出了年度預算。Alliant 也超出了年度預算，推動了 Walker & Dunlop 的負擔得起的貸款業務的顯著增長，並幫助我們招募了一支出色的負擔得起的銷售團隊。雖然 GeoPhy 的收益集中在我們小額貸款和評估業務的增長和盈利能力上，但在 W&D 內部擁有 GeoPhy 的技術能力正在改變整個公司的技術。

2022 was a challenging year, and I'm extremely proud of the customer service, execution and teamwork at W&D. And yet even in the context of the Fed raising rates by 425 basis points, and the market seizing, W&D held revenues flat, grew adjusted EBITDA by 5% and gained significant market share in both financing and sales. These are huge accomplishments thanks to our team and business model. 2023 will certainly have its share of challenges, but W&D does well when things get hard. Our culture shines, our business model shows its strength, our access to countercyclical capital becomes a bigger competitive advantage and our ability to invest in our people, brand and technology drives us forward while the competition steps back. Money has value once again. And as the markets adjust to the new cost of capital and asset values, Walker & Dunlop will be there to help our clients and continue growing.

2022 年是充滿挑戰的一年，我為 W&D 的客戶服務、執行力和團隊合作感到無比自豪。然而，即使在美聯儲加息 425 個基點和搶占市場的背景下，W&D 仍保持收入持平，調整後 EBITDA 增長 5%，並在融資和銷售方面獲得了顯著的市場份額。由於我們的團隊和商業模式，這些都是巨大的成就。 2023 年肯定會面臨挑戰，但 W&D 在事情變得艱難時表現良好。我們的文化大放異彩，我們的商業模式彰顯其實力，我們獲得逆週期資本的機會成為更大的競爭優勢，我們投資於我們的人才、品牌和技術的能力推動我們前進，同時競爭退步。金錢再次具有價值。隨著市場適應新的資本成本和資產價值，Walker & Dunlop 將在那裡幫助我們的客戶並繼續發展。

Many thanks to everyone for your time this morning. I will now turn the call over to Kelsey to open the line for any questions.

非常感謝大家今天早上的時間。我現在將把電話轉給 Kelsey，讓他熱線回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Jade Rahmani of KBW. Jade?

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Jade Rahmani。玉？

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

We can, Jade.

我們可以，傑德。

Thanks so much for your comments. Just on the Fannie Mae side, that was one of the main variances to the downside versus our estimate. Can you comment on the outlook for that business line, in particular, historically, W&D have extremely strong market share with Fannie Mae, a very high-quality track record with the company. And I know that in my conversations with the industry, the GSEs are very focused on mission-driven housing, affordable housing. So where does W&D's business model fit within that? And are you confident that Fannie Mae originations, in particular, will pick up as we move later in the year?

非常感謝您的評論。就 Fannie Mae 而言，這是與我們的估計相比下行的主要差異之一。你能評論一下該業務線的前景嗎，特別是從歷史上看，W&D 與房利美 (Fannie Mae) 的市場份額非常高，這是該公司的一個非常高質量的記錄。我知道，在我與業界的對話中，GSE 非常關注任務驅動的住房、經濟適用房。那麼 W&D 的商業模式在哪裡適合呢？您是否有信心，尤其是 Fannie Mae 的起源會隨著我們在今年晚些時候的搬遷而增加？

Sure, Jade. Well, as I hope that slide that we put up there that CoStar produced, it's a pretty dramatic slide as it relates to the growth in W&D's volumes with Fannie Mae over the last 5 years as not only we moved into the #1 position, but then we move further to the right and gained a lot of volume, while a lot of our competitor firms move to the left and in some instances, fell off the chart.

當然，傑德。好吧，正如我希望的那樣，我們放在那裡的幻燈片是由 CoStar 製作的，這是一張非常引人注目的幻燈片，因為它與過去 5 年 W&D 與房利美的銷量增長有關，因為我們不僅進入了第一的位置，而且然後我們進一步向右移動並獲得了大量的交易量，而我們的許多競爭對手公司向左移動並且在某些情況下跌出圖表。

The agencies are there to provide liquidity when the market dislocates which is where we are today. And they are doing that and so from an overall volume standpoint, I don't think we have any doubt that we will continue to be at the very top of the league tables and continue to do a tremendous amount of volume with Fannie Mae. As Greg and I both underscored, servicing fees have been under pressure due to pricing in the market. It is our very strong conviction that when rates stabilize and cap rates stabilize, we can get back to historic pricing on servicing fees. But until we get back to that moment, every deal in a rising rate environment is going to be under pressure from a pricing standpoint. And therefore, we are going to be under pressure to reducing those fees just as Fannie is reducing their g-fee to be able to win business.

當市場混亂時，這些機構會提供流動性，這就是我們今天所處的位置。他們正在這樣做，所以從整體銷量的角度來看，我認為我們毫不懷疑我們將繼續處於聯盟榜首，並繼續與 Fannie Mae 一起做大量的銷量。正如格雷格和我都強調的那樣，由於市場定價，服務費一直面臨壓力。我們堅信，當利率和上限利率穩定時，我們可以回到服務費的歷史定價。但在我們回到那一刻之前，從定價的角度來看，利率上升環境中的每筆交易都將面臨壓力。因此，我們將面臨降低這些費用的壓力，就像 Fannie 正在降低他們的 g-fee 以贏得業務一樣。

The final piece is the focus on affordability and mission. If you look in the Fannie Mae press release that announced that Walker & Dunlop was the largest DUS lender in 2022, it also breaks out in that press release the various, if you will, subgroups of affordable housing, manufactured housing, seniors housing, [LIHTC] housing, et cetera, et cetera. And as you look at those league tables, you can see very clearly, Jade, that Walker & Dunlop is right there as it relates to the specialty products and being high in the league tables of Fannie Mae on those areas of the business that are mission-driven and are very important to them hitting their scorecard.

最後一部分是對負擔能力和使命的關注。如果您查看宣布 Walker & Dunlop 是 2022 年最大的 DUS 貸方的房利美新聞稿，它還會在該新聞稿中列出各種子組，如果您願意的話，可負擔住房、製造住房、老年人住房，[ LIHTC] 住房等。當你查看這些排名表時，你可以非常清楚地看到，Jade，Walker & Dunlop 就在那裡，因為它與專業產品相關，並且在 Fannie Mae 的那些具有使命感的業務領域排名靠前-驅動並且對他們達到記分卡非常重要。

And the final piece I'd say is we've only had Alliant inside of Walker & Dunlop for a year. Alliant had an exceptional year in 2022, and Greg underscored their financial performance in his comments. Our continued growth in the affordable housing space as a tax credit syndicator, as a lender of debt, as an equity razor and then deployer is super, super helpful to us growing and having, if you will, the synergies between our core existing business pre-Alliant acquisition to where we are today post Alliant acquisition and integration.

我要說的最後一點是，我們在 Walker & Dunlop 內部只有 Alliant 一年。 Alliant 在 2022 年度過了非凡的一年，Greg 在評論中強調了他們的財務表現。我們在經濟適用房領域的持續增長作為稅收抵免聯合組織，作為債務貸款人，作為股票剃須刀，然後是部署者，這對我們的發展非常非常有幫助，如果你願意的話，我們的核心現有業務之間的協同作用-Alliant 收購和整合後我們今天所處的位置。

Great. So just to confirm, it sounds like you don't have any concerns in terms of a shift going on at Fannie Mae with respect to their focus on affordable that is -- that has a negative impact on W&D.

偉大的。所以只是為了確認，聽起來你對 Fannie Mae 正在發生的轉變沒有任何擔憂，因為他們關注的是負擔得起的——這對 W&D 產生了負面影響。

No.

不。

Great. Second question would be the credit performance. I mean it's astonishing to me how good the performance is. You noted average debt service coverage ratio and the risk-sharing book at over 2x. I think that even defaulted loans, which are very, very minimal decreased. So what are you seeing on the credit side? And specifically, as multifamily loans come up for repayment especially floating rate loans, what do you expect to happen? And could this even be an opportunity to extend servicing of those loans as they come up for maturity?

偉大的。第二個問題是信用表現。我的意思是表現如此之好讓我感到驚訝。您注意到平均償債覆蓋率和風險分擔賬簿超過 2 倍。我認為即使是非常非常小的違約貸款也會減少。那麼你在信用方面看到了什麼？具體來說，隨著多戶家庭貸款特別是浮動利率貸款的償還，您預計會發生什麼？這甚至可以成為在這些貸款到期時延長服務期限的機會嗎？

So Jade, as I've heard you ask in a couple of other investor -- excuse me, a couple of other earnings calls so far this cycle, there is very clearly an issue with floating rate financing and in particular people who need to fund escrow accounts for new caps that need to go in place on those floating rate loans. There are a couple of things to keep in mind as it relates specifically to Walker & Dunlop. The first thing is that we do not carry any risk on CLOs, period, end of statement. We have no risk on CLOs.

所以傑德，正如我聽到你問過其他幾個投資者——對不起，這個週期到目前為止的其他幾個財報電話會議，浮動利率融資存在非常明顯的問題，特別是那些需要資金的人託管賬戶需要對這些浮動利率貸款設置新的上限。有幾點需要牢記，因為它與 Walker & Dunlop 特別相關。首先，我們不對 CLO、期間、報表末尾承擔任何風險。我們對 CLO 沒有風險。

The second thing is that our Freddie Mac business and our Freddie Mac servicing book carries no risk to Walker & Dunlop. And so while Freddie Mac has been the predominant floating rate lender in the multifamily space, as I underscored given our Q4 volume with Freddie Mac and our lower volume with Fannie Mae, we don't take risk on those Freddie Mac loans, the BPs buyers on those loans are the ones who carry the risk on those floating rate loans. Does it provide an opportunity for Walker & Dunlop to step in and help our clients in refinancing those deals trying to potentially negotiate with the master servicers some type of relief from a cap cost expense standpoint? Very much so. And as you can imagine, we're doing that daily.

第二件事是我們的 Freddie Mac 業務和我們的 Freddie Mac 服務手冊不會給 Walker & Dunlop 帶來風險。因此，儘管 Freddie Mac 一直是多戶住宅領域的主要浮動利率貸方，正如我強調的那樣，鑑於我們與 Freddie Mac 的第四季度交易量以及與 Fannie Mae 的較低交易量，我們不會在這些 Freddie Mac 貸款上承擔風險，BPs 買家這些貸款是那些承擔浮動利率貸款風險的人。它是否為 Walker & Dunlop 提供了介入並幫助我們的客戶為這些交易再融資的機會，這些交易試圖從上限成本支出的角度與主要服務商進行某種類型的減免談判？非常如此。正如您想像的那樣，我們每天都在這樣做。

But as it relates to credit risk to Walker & Dunlop, we don't carry credit risk on those floating rate Freddie Mac loans. And then I'd say the final thing is as a company that emerged from being a small, privately held family-owned company to the company we are today, credit has always been at the center of everything we do at Walker & Dunlop. When I joined Walker & Dunlop, if we had 1 loan go bad, it could have bankrupted the company. And as a result of that, that very deep focus on credit has paid incredible dividends as we've scaled this business to be much, much bigger. To the point where, quite honestly, we can " afford " to take more losses but we don't because of that credit underwriting discipline. And David Levy, who's our Chief Credit Officer, I've got incredible confidence in David and his entire underwriting team.

但由於它與 Walker & Dunlop 的信用風險有關，我們不承擔那些浮動利率 Freddie Mac 貸款的信用風險。然後我要說的最後一件事是，作為一家從一家小型私營家族企業發展成為今天的公司的公司，信用一直是我們在 Walker & Dunlop 所做的一切事情的核心。當我加入 Walker & Dunlop 時，如果我們有 1 筆貸款變成壞賬，公司可能會破產。因此，隨著我們將這項業務規模擴大到更大，對信貸的高度關注帶來了令人難以置信的紅利。老實說，我們可以“負擔得起”承擔更多損失，但由於信用承銷紀律，我們沒有這樣做。 David Levy 是我們的首席信用官，我對 David 和他的整個承銷團隊充滿信心。

And so we feel extremely good right now from a credit perspective, particularly Jade, given the underlying fundamentals of multifamily. While the transaction volume has fallen off precipitously, given where rates have gone and waiting for adjustment to cap rates for people to allow to reenter the market. As I said at the beginning of my comments, all the publicly traded multifamily REITs who have reported so far are showing fantastic rent growth and compressing cap rates starting 2023. And so the fundamentals of multifamily are holding up very well, and that plays into the strength of our fixed-rate Fannie Mae loan servicing portfolio.

因此，從信用的角度來看，我們現在感覺非常好，尤其是 Jade，考慮到多戶家庭的基本面。雖然交易量急劇下降，但考慮到利率已經下降並等待調整上限利率以允許人們重新進入市場。正如我在評論開頭所說的那樣，到目前為止，所有公開交易的多戶型房地產投資信託基金都顯示出驚人的租金增長，並從 2023 年開始壓縮資本化率。因此，多戶型的基本面保持良好，這對我們的固定利率 Fannie Mae 貸款服務組合的實力。

Thank you, Jade. Our next question comes from Jay McCanless at Wedbush Securities. Jay?

謝謝你，傑德。我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Jay McCanless。傑？

If we could start with the adjusted earnings calculation, and Greg, please correct me where I'm wrong on this, but it looks like the change from the way you were expressing it in the third quarter of '22 to now looks like you just took stock comp out of it and made a change to the tax adjustment. Am I reading that correctly?

如果我們可以從調整後的收益計算開始，格雷格，請糾正我在這方面的錯誤，但看起來從你在 22 年第三季度到現在的表達方式的變化看起來就像你從中取出股票補償並對稅收調整進行了更改。我讀對了嗎？

For the most part, and we're also fully including all of the revaluation adjustments as well, Jay, which we haven't included in the past, particularly in the fourth quarter adjustment to the earnouts. So there's a slight change from that. But...

在大多數情況下，我們也完全包括了所有重估調整，Jay，我們過去沒有包括在內，特別是在第四季度對收益的調整中。因此，與此略有不同。但...

I mean high level, why exclude the stock comp, I would think that's something that since it's a noncash expense, typically something you want to take out to show true operating earnings.

我的意思是高水平，為什麼要排除股票補償，我認為這是一種非現金支出，通常是你想拿出來顯示真實營業收入的東西。

Yes. I think we're not necessarily trying to make it a cash metric, Jay, but something that just gives you a better sense of sort of the core performance of the platform and the stock comp is a part -- a meaningful part of our compensation plan for most of our key executives and senior management, and we feel like it's an important expense to include because it is what retains people. So we don't want to -- we think that's an important adjustment for EBITDA, but not necessarily for the new core adjusted EPS metric.

是的。 Jay，我認為我們不一定要讓它成為現金指標，而是讓你更好地了解平台的核心績效，而股票薪酬是我們薪酬的一部分——一個有意義的部分為我們的大多數關鍵管理人員和高級管理人員制定計劃，我們認為這是一項重要的支出，因為它可以留住人才。所以我們不想——我們認為這是對 EBITDA 的重要調整，但不一定是對新的核心調整後 EPS 指標的調整。

Okay. Got you. And then I guess the second question on GeoPhy. Is it more a competitive issue with everyone trying to do more small balance lending right now, Willy, or was it really a demand issue from the potential borrowers?

好的。明白了然後我猜第二個問題是關於 GeoPhy 的。威利，現在每個人都試圖做更多的小額貸款，這更像是一個競爭問題，還是潛在藉款人的需求問題？

So Jay, I'd say there are a couple of things there. First of all, we have been somewhat capital constrained in the box that the agencies have been willing to lend on because there are some requirements in the SBL space as it relates to the number of properties owned that make it so that lending to a new borrower in the SBL space has been somewhat challenging with the agencies. We raised outside capital to be able to meet that need and then had our capital partner in -- that joint venture basically said that they didn't want to do lending in the back half of the year. And so that sort of took that source of capital off to the side.

所以傑伊，我想說那裡有幾件事。首先，我們在機構願意借出的盒子裡受到了一定的資本限制，因為 SBL 空間有一些要求，因為它與擁有的財產數量有關，這樣才能貸款給新的借款人在 SBL 領域，這些機構一直面臨一些挑戰。我們籌集了外部資金以滿足這一需求，然後讓我們的資本合作夥伴加入——該合資企業基本上表示他們不想在下半年進行貸款。因此，這有點把資本來源擱置一旁。

They have now come back and said that they're ready to go and rolling up their sleeves and saying, let's put money to work. And we also have, if you will, increased momentum with the agencies in our SBL space. I have to tell you, there are very few pieces to our business that I have as much excitement and confidence around is our SBL lending space. And the reason for that to be kind of direct and blunt, in all of our businesses, it's a very, very competitive landscape. But this SBL space is dominated by the big money center banks.

他們現在回來了，說他們準備好了，挽起袖子說，讓我們把錢投入工作吧。如果你願意的話，我們也有增加我們 SBL 領域的機構的勢頭。我必須告訴你，我們的業務中很少有讓我興奮和充滿信心的部分是我們的 SBL 貸款空間。在我們所有的業務中，這是一種直接和直率的原因，這是一個非常非常競爭的環境。但這個 SBL 空間由大型貨幣中心銀行主導。

And as I've said to our team multiple times, if we can't beat the big money center banks from a focused client service and execution standpoint, I mean, that's what Walker & Dunlop has built itself on. You look at the league table that we showed there as it relates to our Fannie Mae volumes and how we've just moved up and moved up. Those are some pretty big brands that we jumped over. Those are some pretty big brands that we've continued to outperform against.

正如我多次對我們的團隊所說，如果我們不能從專注於客戶服務和執行的角度擊敗大型貨幣中心銀行，我的意思是，這就是 Walker & Dunlop 建立自己的基礎。你看看我們在那裡展示的排名表，因為它與我們的 Fannie Mae 銷量有關，以及我們是如何向上移動的。那些是我們跳過的一些相當大的品牌。這些是我們繼續超越的一些相當大的品牌。

And so SBL just gives us another, if you will, bite at the apple to go after some of these large behemoth firms that really aren't focused in this space and start to take share. And then the final thing I'd say on it, there were a couple of upstart companies in that space, one of which was sold to a regional bank. So I kind of discount them as being a competitive force anymore. And then there are only a few other entrepreneurial companies and that we have to really compete with to win market share. And we feel very good about that sort of head-to-head battle.

所以 SBL 只是給了我們另一個，如果你願意的話，咬蘋果去追趕一些真正不專注於這個領域並開始分享的大型龐然大物公司。然後我要說的最後一件事是，該領域有幾家新興公司，其中一家被賣給了一家地區性銀行。所以我有點認為他們不再是一種競爭力量。然後只有少數其他創業公司，我們必須真正與之競爭才能贏得市場份額。我們對這種正面交鋒感到非常滿意。

Great. And then, I guess, my next question. I know you talked about it in the prepared remarks that your confidence around adjusted EBITDA gives you the confidence to raise the dividend, but being, I don't know, skeptical, I would say, of what rates are going to do this year. It just seems like maybe seems premature to raise the dividend at this point. Maybe you can talk about that and kind of the bull-bear around making that decision.

偉大的。然後，我想，我的下一個問題。我知道你在準備好的評論中談到了這一點，你對調整後的 EBITDA 的信心讓你有信心提高股息，但我不知道，我會說，我對今年的利率持懷疑態度。在這一點上提高股息似乎為時過早。也許你可以談談這個以及圍繞做出這個決定的牛市。

I don't -- let's just put it this way. We had a very good discussion at our Board meeting, but given our overall financial performance, the natural hedge that we have from our escrows against increasing interest expense and the cash that the servicing portfolio as well as the asset management portfolio kick off, we feel extremely good as it relates to our cash-generating capabilities. And as a result of that, rather than raising the dividend 10% as we've done quite consistently, the Board decided to go with a 5% dividend increase, but felt very good and very confident in doing that.

我不——讓我們這樣說吧。我們在董事會會議上進行了很好的討論，但考慮到我們的整體財務業績、我們從託管中獲得的對增加利息支出的自然對沖以及服務組合和資產管理組合啟動的現金，我們覺得非常好，因為它與我們的現金產生能力有關。因此，董事會決定將股息增加 5%，而不是像我們一貫所做的那樣將股息提高 10%，但這樣做感覺非常好，也非常有信心。

Great. And then my last question. We've seen a lot of rate volatility between January '23 and February '23. I guess. Could you talk a little bit about what volumes look like in January directionally? And then what you've seen so far in February? And have you seen some people getting more hesitant -- clients getting more hesitant about entering transactions, just given some of the volatility we've already had this year.

偉大的。然後是我的最後一個問題。我們在 23 年 1 月和 23 年 2 月之間看到了很多利率波動。我猜。你能談談 1 月份的成交量嗎？那麼你在 2 月到目前為止看到了什麼？你有沒有看到有些人變得更加猶豫——客戶對進入交易變得更加猶豫，只是考慮到我們今年已經經歷過的一些波動。

It's actually the opposite. If you look at -- I mean, we were at NMHC, and I was meeting with 1 of the agencies and I said, how are you feeling about hitting your cap this year and they're like, well, for the first and second week of the year, our inflows were nothing. So if they continue at that level, they were $700 million a week for the first 2 weeks of the year, and we won't hit our cap. But we had $4.3 billion of inflows last week. And so if they continue at that rate, boy, we'll have to manage to our cap.

實際上恰恰相反。如果你看——我的意思是，我們在 NMHC，我正在與其中一個機構會面，我說，你對今年達到上限感覺如何，他們就像，嗯，第一次和第二次一年中的一周，我們的流入量為零。因此，如果他們繼續保持這一水平，那麼今年前兩週的每週收入為 7 億美元，我們不會達到上限。但上週我們有 43 億美元的資金流入。因此，如果他們繼續保持這種速度，男孩，我們將不得不設法達到我們的上限。

The year started out slow as it typically does, but also coming off of 6 months of very limited transaction volume is our numbers in the overall market volumes would tell you. The market has started to gain momentum. But as Greg and I both underscored and as you can imagine, we were editing our comments up until yesterday afternoon to try and give investors as insightful of you on the market as we possibly can. Just over the last week, we've added a lot to our pipeline. But you add to the pipeline today, and it's a March or April deal. And so what we're seeing is the market build, we just had a client call us up and say they want to go do a new facility with us because they want to have dry powder. They see the market coming back. We love getting phone calls like that. But you're not going to base a quarter on 1 facility that you're doing for fantastic historic client.

這一年一如既往地開局緩慢，但在 6 個月的交易量非常有限之後，我們在整體市場交易量中的數字也會告訴你。市場已開始蓄勢待發。但正如格雷格和我都強調的那樣，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們一直在編輯我們的評論，直到昨天下午，試圖讓投資者盡可能地了解你在市場上的情況。就在上週，我們在管道中添加了很多內容。但是你今天添加到管道中，這是三月或四月的交易。所以我們看到的是市場建設，我們剛剛有一個客戶打電話給我們，說他們想和我們一起做一個新設施，因為他們想要乾粉。他們看到市場正在回歸。我們喜歡接到這樣的電話。但是，您不會將一個季度建立在您為出色的歷史客戶所做的一個設施上。

So I would only say that we -- as I said in my prepared remarks, Jay, we are -- we're seeing plenty of signs for optimism and at the same time, we're going from a market that basically shut down to a market that is gaining its legs. And as you accurately say, with the Fed doing the 25-basis-point raise, we said, hey, maybe they do 1 more and things stabilize and off we go. And then drone policy has done consistently said, don't get too excited that I'm out of this market. I'm going to keep raising. And so it's that kind of push-pull that is making it so that, first of all, we have to be very, very, if you will, conservative in our estimates about what we essentially can do.

所以我只想說我們 - 正如我在準備好的發言中所說，傑伊，我們 - 我們看到了很多樂觀的跡象，與此同時，我們正在從一個基本上關閉的市場走向一個正在站穩腳跟的市場。正如你準確地說的那樣，隨著美聯儲加息 25 個基點，我們說，嘿，也許他們再加息 1，然後事情穩定下來，我們就走了。然後無人機政策一直在說，不要因為我退出這個市場而太興奮。我要繼續加註。因此，正是這種推拉使它成為現實，因此，首先，如果你願意的話，我們必須非常非常保守地估計我們基本上可以做什麼。

And then the second thing is that there are clients who are transacting. And I think 1 of the biggest issues here that I continue to kind of scratch my head on is in 2022, in the first half of the year, there wasn't a single borrower or investor who Walker & Dunlop worked with who is concerned about either buying an asset at the tightest cap rate they had ever bought at or financing at an interest rate that was the lowest interest rate they've ever borrowed at. And then all of a sudden, now everyone is waiting to not look like the fool. Everyone sitting there going, no, I got to make sure that I don't buy at a cap rate that isn't perfectly priced. And I got to make sure my financing cost isn't too high because I think that rates are going to rally again.

然後第二件事是有客戶在交易。而且我認為這裡我繼續撓頭的最大問題之一是在 2022 年，在今年上半年，沒有一個與 Walker & Dunlop 合作的借款人或投資者擔心要么以他們曾經購買過的最嚴格的上限利率購買資產，要么以他們曾經借入的最低利率進行融資。然後突然間，現在每個人都在等著不要看起來像個傻瓜。坐在那裡的每個人都會說，不，我必須確保我不會以定價不完美的上限利率購買。而且我必須確保我的融資成本不會太高，因為我認為利率會再次上漲。

It's very interesting the psychology of the market right now that everyone is waiting sort of for somebody else to step in and do something in a major way to then dive in. But that was the theme at NMHC. The theme at NMHC was the moment the dam breaks and somebody goes and make some major stake saying they think the market has turned, the floodgates will open and the capital will come back.

現在市場的心理非常有趣，每個人都在等待其他人介入並以主要方式做某事然後潛入。但這就是 NMHC 的主題。 NMHC 的主題是大壩決裂的那一刻，有人去賺大錢，說他們認為市場已經轉變，閘門將打開，資本將回歸。

We have no further questions at this time, so I will now turn the call back to Willy for closing remarks.

我們現在沒有其他問題了，所以我現在將電話轉回給威利，讓他發表結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning, and thank you to the W&D team. And as well, thanks to the earnings team for pulling all this together as effectively and professionally as you always do. I hope everyone has a great day, and I appreciate you all joining us this morning. Thanks.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，感謝 W&D 團隊。同時，感謝收益團隊像您一如既往地有效和專業地將所有這些整合在一起。我希望每個人都有美好的一天，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。謝謝。