使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Waste Connections, Inc., Q2 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)
各位好。感謝各位加入,歡迎參加 Waste Connections, Inc. 2026 年第二季(Q2)財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
I will now hand the call over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Ron, please go ahead.
我現在把電話交給總裁兼執行長 Ron Mittelstaedt。Ron,請開始。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our second quarter results and increased outlook for 2026. I'm joined this morning by members of our senior management team, including our CFO, Mary Anne Whitney, who will first provide our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.
好的。謝謝接線員,各位早安。我想歡迎各位參加本次電話會議,討論我們第二季業績以及我們對 2026 年展望的上調。今天早上與我一同出席的還有我們高階管理團隊成員,包括我們的財務長 Mary Anne Whitney;她將先提供前瞻性聲明的免責聲明及其他例行事項。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement in our July 22 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada.
謝謝你,Ron,各位早安。今天電話會議中的討論包含前瞻性陳述,係依據 1995 年《美國私人證券訴訟改革法》之安全港條款所作出,亦包括符合適用加拿大證券法所定義之前瞻性資訊。由於各種風險與不確定性,實際結果可能與此等前瞻性陳述所述內容存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果不同的因素,已在我們 7 月 22 日的財報新聞稿之警示聲明中討論,並在 Waste Connections 向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)以及加拿大之證券委員會或類似監管機關提交的文件中更為詳盡地說明。
You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.
您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述,因為可能存在我們目前尚未察覺或目前認為不重大之其他風險,而這些風險可能對我們的業務造成不利影響。我們不承諾為反映今日之後可能發生或改變的事件或情況而修訂或更新任何前瞻性陳述。
On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income on both a dollar basis and per diluted share, and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論非 GAAP 指標,例如調整後 EBITDA、以金額及每股稀釋後基礎計算的調整後淨利,以及調整後自由現金流。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿,以取得此等非 GAAP 指標與最可比 GAAP 指標之調節表。管理階層使用某些非 GAAP 指標來評估並監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能以不同方式計算這些非 GAAP 指標。
I will now turn the call back over to Ron.
我現在把電話交回給 Ron。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. We are extremely pleased by the strength of our first half performance, which positioned us for an increase to our full year 2026 outlook with momentum for upside from improving trends in commodities and ongoing acquisition activity. Q2 growth of over 6% in both revenue and EBITDA exceeded our expectations in spite of the macroeconomic effects related to ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical environment. Our results reflect continued benefits from both multiyear improvements in employee retention and record safety performance and more recent investments in AI technology, all underpinned by disciplined operational execution.
好的。謝謝你,Mary Anne。我們對上半年表現的強勁感到非常滿意,這使我們得以上調 2026 全年展望,並在大宗商品趨勢改善及持續併購活動的帶動下,具備進一步上行的動能。第二季營收與 EBITDA 均成長超過 6%,儘管地緣政治環境持續不確定所帶來的總體經濟影響,仍超出我們預期。我們的成果反映了多年度員工留任改善與創紀錄的安全績效所帶來的持續效益,以及近期在 AI 技術上的投資;所有成果皆建立在嚴謹的營運執行之上。
Most notably, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 32.8% on a 70 basis points of underlying margin expansion, overcoming cost pressures primarily from rapidly spiking fuel and related costs in addition to ongoing drags from lower commodity values compared to last year's Q2.
最值得一提的是,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張至 32.8%,在基礎利潤率擴張 70 個基點的帶動下,克服了成本壓力;成本壓力主要來自燃料及相關成本的快速飆升,此外相較去年第二季,大宗商品價值較低亦持續造成拖累。
Solid waste organic growth from total price of 6.7% in Q2 included core pricing of 5.6% plus fuel and material surcharges of 1.1%, which outpaced our expectations. On average yield of 4.6%, volumes were down 1.9% reflecting the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, which has limited growth in the solid waste activity. Further, recent elevated fuel costs have impacted the pace and magnitude of construction-related activity some of which was paused during Q2.
第二季固體廢棄物的有機成長來自總價格成長 6.7%,其中核心定價 5.6%,燃料與材料附加費 1.1%,均優於我們預期。平均單位收益(yield)為 4.6%,而量(volumes)下滑 1.9%,反映總體經濟不確定性持續,限制了固體廢棄物活動的成長。此外,近期偏高的燃料成本影響了與建築相關活動的速度與規模,其中部分在第二季期間暫停。
In addition, customer sensitivity to higher overall pricing resulting from fuel-related surcharges, likely exacerbated churn in certain markets. Acknowledging these dynamics, while special waste tons were down year over year in Q2, we have been impressed by activity in July, which may be an indication that the slowdown was temporary.
另外,客戶對因燃料相關附加費而導致的整體價格上升更為敏感,可能使部分市場的流失率(churn)惡化。考量這些動態,雖然第二季特殊廢棄物噸數年減,但我們對 7 月的活動表現印象深刻,這可能顯示放緩只是暫時性的。
Additionally, we were encouraged to see C&D tons up year over year in Q2 for the first time in 10 quarters, with some projects continuing thus far in Q3.
此外,我們也很高興看到 C&D(建築與拆除)噸數在第二季年增,這是 10 個季度以來首次,且部分專案至今在第三季仍持續進行。
Looking at other lines of business, we saw a slightly elevated seasonal ramp in E&P waste revenue in Q2, up 12% from Q1 and up 18% year over year. Organic E&P waste growth was led by the US, up 7%, following a nominal pickup in rig count. Activity in Canada while more production-oriented and, therefore, consider less sensitive to crude values was down nominally but about flat year over year with normalized for an outsized remediation project in the prior year.
再看其他業務線,第二季 E&P(勘探與生產)廢棄物營收出現略高於季節性的爬升,較第一季成長 12%,年增 18%。E&P 廢棄物的有機成長主要由美國帶動,隨著鑽機數量小幅回升而成長 7%。加拿大的活動較偏向生產導向,因此我們認為對原油價格的敏感度較低;名目上略有下滑,但若將前一年規模偏大的整治專案影響正常化後,年比大致持平。
Looking next at trends for other commodities in Q2. Recycled commodity revenues stepped up sequentially for the second consecutive quarter with the overall basket up 10% to 15% from year-end. Landfill gas sales have also improved, stepping up sequentially by 15% from Q1 as a result of both higher gas generation and higher values for renewable energy credits, or RINs.
接著看第二季其他大宗商品的趨勢。回收大宗商品營收連續第二個季度呈現季增,整體組合自去年底以來上升 10% 至 15%。掩埋場沼氣銷售亦有所改善,受惠於氣體產量增加以及再生能源憑證(RINs)價值提高,較第一季季增 15%。
Looking at our renewable natural gas projects we're pleased to report progress ahead of our expectations on the remaining development projects in 2026. Coming into the year with about 1/3 of our RNG portfolio already operational, we have come through start-up and ramp production at several other projects, including one owned facility brought online in July.
就我們的再生天然氣(RNG)專案而言,我們很高興回報:2026 年其餘開發中專案的進度超出我們預期。在年初時,我們的 RNG 組合約有三分之一已投入營運;我們已完成多個其他專案的啟動並逐步提升產量,其中包括一座自有設施於 7 月上線。
R&D capital outlays are on track to be essentially complete by year-end, and we expect that all plants will be operational by early next year. We're also tracking in line with our expectations with respect to the impact from managing the elevated temperature landfill or ETLF event at Chiquita Canyon landfill. As we described last quarter, we continue to make progress mitigating the reaction, which is stable, controlled and decelerating. There is no change to our projections regarding related free cash flow impacts to 2026 or our expectations for sequential decline in impact in '27.
R&D 資本支出按計畫將在年底前基本完成,我們預期所有工廠將於明年初前投入營運。此外,就我們對 Chiquita Canyon 掩埋場之高溫掩埋場(ETLF)事件的管理影響而言,目前進展亦符合我們預期。如同我們上季所述,我們持續在緩解該反應方面取得進展;目前反應穩定、受控且正在減速。我們對 2026 年相關自由現金流影響的預估,以及對 2027 年影響將逐季下降的預期,均無變動。
Moving next to M&A. As expected, year-to-date, we have completed acquisitions totaling approximately $100 million in annualized revenue, and we have another $30 million of exclusive model franchise transactions and anticipated to close very soon during Q3. With almost half the year still ahead of us and dialogue ongoing, we remain on pace for what we would call another above-average M&A year. We've also remained active buying back our own shares in what we consider an opportunistic environment. In our busiest year ever, we've deployed approximately 692 million year-to-date and bought back over 1.5% of shares outstanding pursuant to our normal course issuer bid, which authorizes the repurchase of up to 5% of shares annually at which we will be renewed in August.
接著談併購(M&A)。如預期所示,截至目前為止,我們已完成的收購合計約帶來 1 億美元的年化營收,另有 3,000 萬美元的獨家模式特許經營交易,預計將在第三季很快完成交割。在今年仍有將近一半時間、且對話仍在進行之際,我們仍維持步調,有望再度達成我們所稱的「高於平均」的併購年度。我們也持續在我們認為具機會性的環境中回購自家股票。在我們史上最忙碌的一年中,截至目前我們已投入約 6.92 億美元,並依據我們的一般發行人回購(NCIB)計畫回購了超過 1.5% 的流通在外股份;該計畫授權每年最多回購 5% 的股份,並將於 8 月續期。
Following an active first half of the year, our leverage remained virtually unchanged at 2.76x debt-to-EBITDA. As such, we retain flexibility for acquisitions and returning capital to shareholders through additional repurchases as well as another increase to our dividend, which we will consider when we undertake our annual review in October.
在上半年營運活動積極之後,我們的槓桿率幾乎維持不變,債務對 EBITDA 為 2.76 倍。因此,我們仍保有進行併購以及透過額外回購與再次提高股利向股東返還資本的彈性;我們將在 10 月進行年度檢視時加以考量。
And now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the second quarter, to review the elements of our increased full year 2026 outlook and what that implies for the back half of the year. I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.
接下來我想把電話交給 Mary Anne,更深入地回顧第二季的財務重點,並說明我們上調 2026 全年展望的構成要素,以及這對下半年意味著什麼。之後我會在進入問答前做個總結。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Ron. In the second quarter, revenue of $2.562 billion exceeded our expectations and was up $155 million or 6.4% year over year. Contributions from acquisitions net of divestitures totaled $46 million in the quarter. Organic growth in solid waste collection, transfer and disposal was led by 5.6% core price, which range from about 4% in our mostly exclusive market Western region to 7% in our competitive regions.
謝謝你,Ron。第二季營收為 25.62 億美元,超出我們預期,年增 1.55 億美元或 6.4%。本季併購扣除處分的貢獻合計 4,600 萬美元。固體廢棄物收運、轉運與處置的有機成長主要由 5.6% 的核心價格帶動;各區間約從以獨家市場為主的西部地區約 4%,到競爭性地區的 7%。
Total price of 6.7% included 1.1% in fuel and material surcharges or approximately $25 million which represents the majority of the incremental direct costs in the quarter. We remain on track for full year core price at or above 5.5%, with pricing for 2026 largely complete or otherwise known. And expect to fully recover higher fuel costs over time through surcharges with the timing determined by the pace and magnitude of changes in diesel pricing.
總價格成長 6.7% 中包含 1.1% 的燃料與材料附加費,約 2,500 萬美元,這代表本季增量直接成本的大部分。我們仍按計畫達成全年核心價格達到或高於 5.5%,且 2026 年的定價大多已完成或已大致明朗。並預期將隨時間透過附加費完全回收較高的燃料成本,時點取決於柴油價格變動的速度與幅度。
Yields of 4.6% was consistent with Q1 levels and continues to reflect the benefits from our AI price optimization tool deployed late last year. And solid waste volumes were down about 1.9% reflecting the following year-over-year results in the second quarter on a same-store basis.
收益率(yields)為 4.6%,與第一季水準一致,並持續反映我們於去年底導入的 AI 價格最佳化工具所帶來的效益。固體廢棄物量約下滑 1.9%,反映第二季在同店基礎下的以下年對年結果。
Roll-off pulls were down 2%, similar to recent quarters on rates per pull up 5%, which is about 150 basis points higher than in the past several quarters, primarily resulting from surcharges. With the exception of our Western region, pulls were down in all regions on sluggish construction activity and likely reflect some price volume trade-off following increased surcharge activity, a trade-off we're comfortable taking.
開放式貨櫃(roll-off)拉運次數(pulls)下滑 2%,與近幾季相近;每次拉運的費率上升 5%,較過去幾季高約 150 個基點,主要來自附加費。除西部地區外,各區拉運次數皆因營建活動疲弱而下滑,並可能反映在附加費提高後出現的價格與量的取捨;我們對這樣的取捨感到可以接受。
Landfill tons were essentially flat, reflecting flat MSW and special waste down nominally on tough comparisons with C&D tons up 1% halting the downward trends we've noted and led by a 10% increase in our central region, where we highlighted strong special waste activity in Q1.
掩埋場進場噸數基本持平:MSW(都市固體廢棄物)持平,特殊廢棄物因比較基期偏高而小幅下滑;C&D(營建拆除)噸數上升 1%,中止了我們先前提到的下行趨勢,並由中部地區 10% 的增幅帶動;我們在第一季曾強調該區特殊廢棄物活動強勁。
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2, as reconciled in our earnings release, was $840.1 million, up 6.8% year over year. At 32.8% of revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded our expectations and was up 10 basis points year over year, driven by 70 basis points underlying margin expansion offset by about a 40 basis point drag from fuel and another 20 basis points drag from lower commodity values.
第二季調整後 EBITDA(如我們的財報新聞稿所調節)為 8.401 億美元,年增 6.8%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為營收的 32.8%,高於我們預期,年增 10 個基點;其中 70 個基點來自基礎利潤率擴張,但被燃料約 40 個基點的拖累以及商品價值下滑約 20 個基點的拖累所抵銷。
Our outsized underlying solid waste margin expansion reflected favorable price/cost spread dynamics in spite of additional cost pressures indirectly related to fuel and was magnified by benefits from employee retention and safety, most notably savings in risk management costs, which accounted for about half of our underlying margin expansion.
我們顯著的固體廢棄物基礎利潤率擴張,反映即使存在與燃料間接相關的額外成本壓力,價格/成本差仍呈現有利動態;同時也因員工留任與安全方面的效益而放大,尤其是風險管理成本的節省,約占我們基礎利潤率擴張的一半。
And finally, year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $703 million was in line with our expectations and consistent with our full year 2026 outlook for double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow per share. Year-to-date capital expenditures of approximately $600 million, up more than $100 million year over year were also in line with our expectations.
最後,年初至今調整後自由現金流為 7.03 億美元,符合我們預期,並與我們對 2026 全年每股調整後自由現金流達雙位數成長的展望一致。年初至今資本支出約 6 億美元,年增超過 1 億美元,也符合我們預期。
CapEx outlays to date are following a more normalized cadence than last year when the pace of spending reflected slower progress on RNG projects and delayed fleet deliveries.
截至目前的資本支出節奏較去年更為正常化;去年支出步調反映 RNG 專案進度較慢以及車隊交付延遲。
I will now review our updated outlook for the full year 2026 and provide some thoughts about what that implies for the back half of the year. Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully.
我現在將回顧我們更新後的 2026 全年展望,並分享一些對下半年意味著什麼的看法。在開始之前,我們再次提醒各位,實際結果可能因我們在安全港聲明以及向 SEC 與加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機關所提交文件中所列的風險與不確定性而有重大差異。我們鼓勵投資人仔細檢視這些因素。
Our outlook assumes no change in the underlying economic trends. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.
我們的展望假設基礎經濟趨勢不變。同時也不包含今年剩餘期間可能完成的額外併購所帶來的影響,以及期間內交易相關項目的費用化。
Looking first at our updated outlook for the full year is provided for and reconciled in our earnings release. Given the strength of our performance in the first half of the year and updating for recent values for recycled commodities, RINs and fuel as well as acquisitions completed to date, we are increasing our full year 2026 outlook as provided in February as follows: Revenue is now estimated in the range of $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion, up $100 million to $120 million from February. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now estimated in the range of $3.33 billion to $3.34 billion, up from a range of $3.30 billion to $3.325 billion, putting full year margin in the range of 33.2% to 33.3%.
先看我們更新後的全年展望,相關數據已在我們的財報新聞稿中提供並完成調節。鑑於上半年表現強勁,並依據近期回收商品、RINs 與燃料的價格,以及截至目前已完成的併購進行更新,我們將 2 月提供的 2026 全年展望上調如下:營收目前估計為 100.2 億至 100.5 億美元,較 2 月上調 1 億至 1.2 億美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 目前估計為 33.3 億至 33.4 億美元,高於原先的 33.0 億至 33.25 億美元區間,使全年利潤率落在 33.2% 至 33.3%。
As Ron noted, there is no change to our expectations for adjusted free cash flow for 2026 in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion including impacts related to closure at Chiquita Canyon landfill in the range of $100 million to $150 million and capital expenditures of $1.25 billion. The closing of additional acquisitions would provide upside to our increased 2026 outlook as with further improvement in commodities and related activity. Further movement in fuel prices and the timing of recovery of higher fuel costs will also continue to impact results.
如 Ron 所提,2026 年調整後自由現金流的預期維持不變,仍為 14 億至 14.5 億美元,其中包含與 Chiquita Canyon 掩埋場關閉相關的影響約 1 億至 1.5 億美元,以及資本支出 12.5 億美元。若完成更多併購,將為我們上調後的 2026 展望帶來上行空間;回收商品及相關活動若進一步改善亦然。燃料價格的進一步變動,以及回收較高燃料成本的時點,也將持續影響結果。
Looking next at the quarterly margin cadence. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the second half of the year is expected to average about 33.7% as implied by our full year outlook and could exceed 34% in Q3 depending on fuel and other commodities in the quarter. As noted earlier this year, the toughest quarterly comparisons during Q4 when we would expect a more typical seasonal step down in margin than we experienced in 2025.
接著看季度利潤率的節奏。依我們的全年展望推算,下半年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預期平均約 33.7%;視當季燃料與其他商品而定,第三季可能超過 34%。如今年稍早所述,第四季的季度比較將是最具挑戰的,屆時我們預期利潤率會出現較典型的季節性下滑幅度,而非 2025 年所見的情況。
And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.
現在在進入問答前,讓我把電話交回給 Ron 做最後的補充。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Mary Anne. As we have said, we're extremely pleased with our first half results and our increased outlook for the year. We believe the most challenging quarter for fuel recovery is behind us, and we see potential foresight ahead from improving commodity related trends and incremental acquisitions. Along with the benefits we've enjoyed from improved employee retention and record safety performance, we've already seen the potential to unlock opportunities in AI-driven projects impacting our operations.
謝謝你,Mary Anne。如我們所說,我們對上半年成果以及我們上調的全年展望感到非常滿意。我們認為燃料成本回收最具挑戰的季度已經過去,並看到商品相關趨勢改善與增量併購所帶來的潛在利多。再加上員工留任改善與創紀錄的安全表現所帶來的效益,我們也已看到由 AI 驅動、影響營運的專案有望釋放更多機會。
And we're reaching the inflection point on the outlays impacting our free cash flow conversion, most notably our RNG facilities moving from a CapEx headwind this year to a tailwind from contributions from operations next year along with a continued decline in cash closure outflows at Chiquita Canyon landfill.
而我們正接近影響自由現金流轉換率支出的拐點,最值得注意的是,我們的RNG設施將在今年從資本支出(CapEx)的逆風,轉為明年由營運貢獻帶來的順風,同時奇基塔峽谷(Chiquita Canyon)掩埋場的現金封場(closure)支出外流也將持續下降。
In short, we're set up for double-digit adjusted free cash flow per share growth in 2026 and already looking ahead for more of the same in 2027. The consistency and projectability of our industry-leading results despite the macroeconomic backdrop reflects our differentiated approach is ultimately a testament to operational excellence and fundamentals that define us.
簡而言之,我們已為2026年每股調整後自由現金流的雙位數成長做好準備,並且已提前展望2027年可望延續同樣的表現。在宏觀經濟背景之下,我們仍能維持業界領先成果的一致性與可預測性,反映出我們差異化的方法;歸根究柢,這是對卓越營運與我們所秉持基本面的一種印證。
Safety, integrity and customer service, all make Waste Connections, a great place to work. And we are most grateful for the dedication of our 25,000-plus employees, which is what truly sets us apart. We appreciate your time today. I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions.
安全、誠信與客戶服務,讓Waste Connections成為一個很棒的工作場所。我們也非常感謝超過25,000名員工的投入與奉獻,這才是真正讓我們與眾不同之處。感謝各位今天撥冗參與。接下來我將把電話會議交給接線員,開放各位提問。
Operator?
接線員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Tyler Brown, Raymond James.
(接線員指示) Tyler Brown,Raymond James。
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Patrick Tyler Brown - Analyst
Ron, I want to maybe pack a couple of questions into one. But first, I just want to kind of come back to the competitive landscape. So I'm just curious, is the move in fuel causing some increases in churn? And what I mean by that are the smaller haulers who maybe don't have sophisticated surcharge mechanisms using your move in surcharges maybe as a pathway into new customers? And is that, frankly, different than what you've seen in the past?
Ron,我想把幾個問題合在一起問。不過首先,我想回到競爭態勢。我很好奇,燃料價格的變動是否導致流失率(churn)上升?我的意思是,那些可能沒有成熟附加費(surcharge)機制的小型清運商,是否會利用你們調整附加費的動作,作為切入新客戶的途徑?坦白說,這跟你們過去看到的情況有不同嗎?
Or is there any bigger changes in the competitive landscape?
或者競爭態勢是否有任何更大的變化?
And then two, Mary Anne, just what is the rollover impact from M&A in '26? And would there be any lingering left over in '27 based on what's closed?
第二個問題,Mary Anne,併購(M&A)在'26年的遞延(rollover)影響是什麼?而基於已完成交割的案子,'27年是否還會有任何殘留影響?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So Tyler, I'll take the first part. Tyler, number one, I would say that we're not seeing anything different than historical with regard to fuel surcharges and churn activity. There's probably some nominal increase in the competitive activity because of the pace of this increase in fuel. We went from $60 to over $120 a barrel in a very short period of time, time that would typically take 6 to 8 months, took 4 to 6 weeks. And so the strategic -- the public companies reacted very quickly, as I think you see and we'll see.
Tyler,我先回答第一部分。Tyler,第一點,我會說,就燃料附加費與客戶流失活動而言,我們沒有看到任何不同於歷史的情況。由於燃料上漲速度很快,競爭活動可能有些微增加。我們在非常短的時間內,油價從每桶60美元漲到超過120美元;通常需要6到8個月的時間,這次只花了4到6週。因此,策略上——上市公司反應非常迅速,我想你們已經看到、也將會看到。
And the private companies were at lower. They'll take 3 to 9 months and eat it. And use that as some competitive inroad.
而民營公司起點較低。他們會花3到9個月自行吸收。並把這當作競爭切入點。
So I would say it's just that this was such a fast spike is what probably makes it look a little different. Longer this wears on, the less difference between those public and private companies will happen. So it's not anything material, but it probably accounted for an additional 10 to 15 basis points of volume churn in the quarter related to that.
所以我會說,主要是因為這次飆升太快,才讓它看起來有點不同。時間拖得越久,上市與民營公司之間的差異就會越小。因此沒有什麼重大影響,但這可能使本季與此相關的量(volume)流失率額外增加了10到15個基點。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And then in response to the second question, even though you're violating the rules Tyler, I'll be brief. But acquisition contribution, the rollover contribution to next year would be about $30 million. The increase to our full year outlook included an increase of about $50 million associated with '26.
至於第二個問題的回覆,雖然你違反規則了Tyler,但我會簡短回答。收購貢獻的遞延到明年的貢獻大約是3,000萬美元。我們對全年展望的上調中,包含了約5,000萬美元與'26年相關的增加。
Operator
Operator
Kevin Chiang, CIBC.
Kevin Chiang,CIBC。
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Analyst
Just one on -- we're hearing a lot more on -- in Canada, nation building projects more energy infrastructure projects. And I guess when I think of your R360 Canada operations, just how you think that might benefit from this increased CapEx? And maybe how many auto facilities do you have today that maybe could be reopened if activity does pick up in Western Canada here?
我想問一個——我們在加拿大聽到更多關於——國家建設專案、更多能源基礎設施專案。當我想到你們在加拿大的R360業務時,你們認為這些增加的資本支出(CapEx)會如何帶來效益?另外,如果加拿大西部的活動回升,你們目前有多少座自有(auto)設施可能可以重新啟用?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Well, Kevin, to the second part of your question first, there's still two to three idle facilities that can be reopened of the original 5 from when we acquired the secure divested assets up there. And in February 24. We -- and so that would be the first part.
好的。Kevin,先回答你問題的第二部分:從我們收購Secure剝離的那些資產時原本的5座設施來看,目前仍有2到3座閒置設施可以重新啟用。那是在2024年2月。我們——所以這是第一部分。
And look, we -- there's a lot of discussion, as you know, better than we, in Canada of increased energy production, various export pipeline construction from the country and throughout the country. And obviously, we think we're extremely well positioned to benefit from that if and when it happens, And from all the operations that we've got there. But we have not yet seen that. As we said in our comments, it's been -- Canada was relatively flat but coming off a very strong comp in Q2 of last year.
另外,你也知道,加拿大目前有很多討論——甚至你比我們更清楚——包括提高能源產量、從加拿大對外以及全國各地的各種出口管線建設。很明顯地,我們認為若且當這些發生時,憑藉我們在當地的各項營運,我們處於極佳位置可望受惠。但我們目前尚未看到這些帶動。如同我們在評論中所說,加拿大表現相對持平,但這是在去年第二季非常強勁的比較基期之上。
Operator
Operator
Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.
Faiza Alwy,德意志銀行。
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
Faiza Alwy - Analyst
Ron, you made some comments around the macro environment and the fact that you've been impressed with activity in July indicating that the slowdown is temporary. So maybe talk a little bit more about that is that did you see a broad-based pickup? Did the competitive environment improve? So just give us a little bit more perspective on what you saw a difference -- what you're seeing differently in July versus what you saw in 2Q?
Ron,你提到一些關於宏觀環境的看法,並表示你對7月的活動表現印象深刻,顯示放緩是暫時的。能否再多談一些:你看到的是全面性的回升嗎?競爭環境有改善嗎?請再給我們多一點觀點,說明你在7月看到的不同之處——相較於你在第二季看到的情況?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, first off, Faiza, I mean, we don't want to overgeneralize. We had 3 weeks or so of July so far. But we have seen some continued pickup in both special ways and in several of our regions of C&D, MSW has been up nominally so far for the last 4 consecutive weeks, which is an improvement relative to the May, June time frame. Some of that can be timing, it's hard to understand.
是的。首先,Faiza,我們不想過度概括。到目前為止,7月大概只有3週的數據。但我們確實看到在特殊廢棄物(special waste)以及我們多個地區的C&D(建築與拆除廢棄物)方面持續回升;MSW(一般固體廢棄物)在過去連續4週迄今也有小幅上升,這相較於5月、6月的時間區間有所改善。其中一部分可能是時點因素,很難判斷。
I mean, as you're hearing from other industrial service providers and equipment providers, there does seem to be an accelerating pickup in rental equipment and construction-related equipment demand and activity, which would indicate that, that is coming we tend to probably lag because it takes time for that to happen to start generating waste. But we're cautiously optimistic, but we have not baked any of that into our guidance that was just provided for the second half of the year.
我的意思是,正如你從其他工業服務供應商與設備供應商那裡聽到的,租賃設備與建築相關設備的需求與活動似乎正在加速回升,這可能意味著相關動能正在到來;我們可能會稍微落後,因為需要時間讓這些活動發生並開始產生廢棄物。不過我們審慎樂觀,但我們並未把這些因素納入剛提供的下半年指引之中。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.
Jim Schumm,TD Cowen。
James Schumm - Analyst
James Schumm - Analyst
Could you just help me with the Chiquita accounting. You had a $58 million impairment there. Is that -- like I thought Q1 was sort of a true up. And then -- so is that impairment reflective of the 2Q spend? And could you just give us an update on where you are in the Chiquita spend year-to-date versus your guidance?
能否請你協助我理解Chiquita的會計處理。你們那裡認列了5,800萬美元的減損。我原本以為第一季算是一個調整(true up)。那麼——所以這個減損是反映第二季的支出嗎?另外,能否請你更新一下,Chiquita今年迄今的支出相對於你們指引的進度如何?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So I'd be happy to take that, Jim. So first off, no, that is not indicative of the Q2 spend. What this is, is the matching of the closure accrual liability to the projected run rate cash flow outflows, okay? So as we move along, we true that up but there is no change at all to our $100 million to $150 million of cash outflows in 2026 and the stepping down of those in '27 and again into '28.
好的。所以我很樂意接這題,Jim。首先,不,那並不代表第二季的支出。這其實是把關閉相關的應計負債,與預估的常態化現金流出(run rate cash flow outflows)做配比,好嗎?所以隨著時間推進,我們會把它校準到位,但我們對於2026年1億至1.5億美元的現金流出,以及在2027年、再到2028年的逐步下降,完全沒有任何改變。
This is purely the matching of the liability to the run rate is what that is. It's the difference between cash and GAAP accrual accounting.
這純粹就是把負債與常態化水準(run rate)做配比。這就是現金與GAAP應計會計之間的差異。
James Schumm - Analyst
James Schumm - Analyst
Got it. Okay. And Ron, would you be able to say where you're tracking year-to-date versus the $100 million to $150 million guidance?
了解。好的。那Ron,你能否說一下你們年初至今的進度,相對於1億至1.5億美元指引目前追蹤到哪裡?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, we're tracking probably somewhere between the middle, $125 million and $150 million at this point in time, but comfortable in that range for the full year.
嗯,我們目前追蹤大概落在中間偏上,約1.25億到1.5億美元之間,但對於全年落在該區間內很有信心。
Operator
Operator
Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.
Konark Gupta,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Konark Gupta - Analyst
Mary Anne, just wanted to dig into the underlying margin trends for you guys. I understand obviously the comps are changing every quarter. But just seeing this trend where your underlying margin, I think, expanded about 150 basis points in Q4 of last year. And then we saw 110 in Q1 now '17 Q2. Is this deceleration in underlying margin expansion purely on the comps?
Mary Anne,我想再深入了解一下你們的基礎利潤率(underlying margin)趨勢。我理解顯然每一季的比較基期(comps)都在變。但看到這個趨勢:你們的基礎利潤率在去年第四季大概擴張了150個基點。然後第一季是110個基點,現在第二季是17個基點。這個基礎利潤率擴張放緩,純粹是因為比較基期嗎?
Or is there something else we should be thinking about as well as we look into the second half?
或者在我們展望下半年時,還有其他因素也需要納入考量?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. It really is about comps and what we've communicated with respect to the benefits from the employee retention and safety-related margin drivers that we said there would be about 100 basis points, and then we came back around and said it's probably even north of that. And that the final piece would be the risk component, which would lag and you've now seen three quarters of 30 to 40 basis points benefit from risk. In addition, you saw the benefits from internalization -- last year, we talked about the benefits at Arrowhead. For instance, we were internalizing more tons than our disposal costs were going down.
當然。這確實主要是比較基期,以及我們先前溝通過的:來自員工留任與安全相關的利潤率驅動因素,我們說大約會有100個基點的效益,之後我們又回頭說可能甚至高於這個水準。最後一塊是風險(risk)組成,會比較滯後,而你現在已經看到連續三季來自風險的30到40個基點效益。此外,你也看到內部化(internalization)的效益——去年我們談到Arrowhead的效益。例如,我們內部化處理的噸數增加,使得我們的處置成本下降。
So it really is just that we are now lapping or anniversary-ing those -- and as you point out, Q4, I would argue, was analytic because you had such had 100 basis points benefit just from between disposal and risk in Q4 last year. And so that's why when we described the more typical step down, it really is with seasonality, and that will impact Q4 as we expected when we gave our guidance at the beginning of this year, we're just reminding folks of that sequential decline that you'll see.
所以重點就是:我們現在正在把那些效益「跨過一年」或「進入周年比較」(lapping/anniversary-ing)——而如你所指出,第四季我會認為是偏異常(analytic)的,因為去年第四季光是處置與風險之間就有100個基點的效益。因此,當我們描述較典型的逐步下滑時,主要就是季節性所致,而這會影響第四季;這也符合我們在今年年初給出指引時的預期,我們只是提醒大家會看到那個序列性的下滑。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And also last year in Q4, you anniversaried the closure of the Chiquita landfill. So that was a sequential step as well. So again, it is just comps, as Mary Anne said.
另外,去年第四季你們也進入了Chiquita掩埋場關閉的周年比較。所以那也是一個序列性的變動。所以再說一次,正如Mary Anne所說,這就是比較基期的因素。
Operator
Operator
Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.
Toni Kaplan,摩根士丹利。
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
I was hoping you could talk about free cash flow and the investments that you're making into fleet and landfills, R&D and also, whether the Chiquita outlays are relatively straight line across the quarters or if there's more sort of seasonality in some of the quarters versus others?
我想請你們談談自由現金流,以及你們在車隊與掩埋場、研發(R&D)方面的投資;另外,Chiquita的支出在各季之間是否大致呈直線(平均)分布,還是某些季度相對其他季度會更有季節性?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I would say, first of all, with respect to the second part, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on exactly what outlays are in a given quarter, it can be lumpy for a variety of reasons. For modeling purposes, probably fine to do it kind of straight line with respect to the Chiquita piece.
我會先說第二部分:我不會太強調某一季的確切支出金額,因為基於各種原因,它可能會有波動(lumpy)。就建模而言,針對Chiquita那一塊,大致用直線方式處理應該就可以。
More broadly, to your question about CapEx. As we noted in our prepared remarks, our spending is kind of in line with our expectations in terms of CapEx. We just pointed out that it's up year over year largely because of delays last year. And I'd say it's really ordinary course where you'd expect us to be -- you'd expect us to be investing in fleet and building out our landfills, which always the bulk of CapEx in any given year.
更廣泛地回到你對資本支出(CapEx)的問題。如同我們在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們的支出在CapEx方面大致符合預期。我們只是指出年增主要是因為去年有延遲。我會說這就是正常營運(ordinary course)下你會預期我們所在的位置——你會預期我們會投資於車隊並擴建我們的掩埋場,而這通常是任何一年CapEx的大宗。
Beyond that RNG, which you asked about, we've mentioned that there were $75 million in R&D that we expected this year and the update is we expect to spend that amount. And therefore, we expect that what's left on RNG in '27 would be de minimis. We're essentially done with those CapEx outlays that we've talked about over a multiyear period.
除此之外,你問到的RNG(可再生天然氣),我們提過今年預期會有7,500萬美元的研發(R&D)支出,而最新狀況是我們預期會花到這個金額。因此,我們預期到2027年RNG剩餘的支出將微不足道(de minimis)。基本上,我們已經完成了我們先前談到的、跨多年期的那些CapEx支出。
And it is one of the drivers for the inflection in free cash flow in '27, the absence of continued CapEx in R&D and the benefits from those projects coming online, which we've mentioned, we've already started to see this year which we factored some of that into our expectations coming into the year, and it's exceeded that, which is, again, one of the other drivers for the pickup in EBITDA over -- from our previous guidance.
而這也是2027年自由現金流出現拐點(inflection)的驅動因素之一:研發方面不再持續投入CapEx,以及那些專案上線所帶來的效益。我們也提過,今年已經開始看到這些效益;我們在年初的預期中已納入其中一部分,而實際表現超出預期;這同樣也是EBITDA相較於我們先前指引上修的另一個驅動因素。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Toni, I would just add that look, you're always going to have in the second and third quarter, you're going to have your landfill construction projects, capital and your facility construction project capital because you cannot do that in the winter months. And so we're going to put more truck purchases in the first, second and beginning of the third quarter to offset and manage that flow more evenly and to get the trucks delivered early in the year to our field to impact the P&L in variable and safety. So that's sort of how we think through how CapEx flows.
Toni,我再補充一下:你在第二、第三季通常都會有掩埋場施工專案的資本支出,以及設施施工專案的資本支出,因為冬季月份無法進行這些工程。因此,我們會把更多卡車採購安排在第一季、第二季以及第三季初,以抵銷並讓資金流動更平均,同時也能在年初就把卡車交付到現場,透過可變成本與安全面向影響損益表(P&L)。這就是我們對CapEx流量的思考方式。
Operator
Operator
Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.
Bryan Burgmeier,花旗(Citi)。
Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst
Bryan Burgmeier - Analyst
Just on the updated outlook for 2026. I was just wondering if you can maybe frame your expectations for cost inflation just for wages, maintenance repair, other items. Just maybe what do you expect now versus the original guide in February? Just kind of thinking about that net price driven margin expansion and how we should be modeling that in the second half?
關於2026年更新後的展望。我想請你們或許可以框架一下你們對成本通膨的預期,包含工資、維修保養(maintenance repair)以及其他項目。也就是說,相較於2月原先的指引,你們現在的預期是什麼?我在想由淨價格(net price)帶動的利潤率擴張,我們在下半年建模時應該怎麼看?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. The observation that I'd make -- first of all, in our guidance, we've maintained the underlying solid waste margin expansion in the range of 50 to 70 basis points. There's no change to that expectation. Really all that changed is we're acknowledging that fuel is a little more punitive than certainly we knew coming in, in February, it's down 20 to 30 basis points. And commodities are offsetting a portion of that because they've improved.
當然。我會先做一個觀察——首先,在我們的指引中,我們維持基礎固體廢棄物(solid waste)利潤率擴張在50到70個基點的區間。這個預期沒有改變。真正改變的是:我們承認燃料的負面影響比我們2月進來時所知道的更嚴峻,大約拖累20到30個基點。而大宗商品(commodities)因為改善,抵銷了其中一部分影響。
So what that tells you about the underlying margin expansion is I would say that we're actually outperforming our original expectations because we'd acknowledge that there's cost creep in a number of areas indirectly related to fuel, anything that's being delivered to us is more expensive than it was before you saw that spike in fuel.
所以,這告訴你關於基礎利潤率擴張的情況是,我會說我們實際上表現優於原先的預期,因為我們也承認在若干與燃料間接相關的領域出現了成本上升;任何交付給我們的東西,都比你看到燃料價格飆升之前更昂貴。
So broadly speaking, we came into the year thinking that cost pressures are kind of in that 3.5% to 4% range. And the primary driver, of course, is wages, but these other pressures have creeped a little. And I'd say wages have behaved in line with our expectations, which is that the year-over-year increases. We're moderating slightly as we move through the year.
總體而言,我們在年初的判斷是成本壓力大概在3.5%到4%的區間。當然,主要驅動因素是薪資,但其他壓力也略有上升。我會說薪資的表現符合我們的預期,也就是年對年增幅。隨著年度推進,我們看到增幅略有放緩。
Operator
Operator
Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.
Jerry Revich,富國銀行。
Andrew Azzi - Analyst
Andrew Azzi - Analyst
This is Andrew Azzi on for Jerry. I just wanted to start off maybe with if we could outline some of the AI initiatives that are running through '27. Would you be able to walk us through where each of the initiatives are kind of sitting in their life cycle now and the EBITDA contribution captured to date?
我是代替Jerry的Andrew Azzi。我想先從一個問題開始:能否概述一下延續到2027年的一些AI計畫?你能否帶我們了解各項計畫目前在其生命週期中的位置,以及截至目前已反映的EBITDA貢獻?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, I'll take them in some broad buckets for you, Andrew. In '25, we fully deployed our AI linked what we call pro pricing -- commercial pricing tool, and that is fully deployed by the fourth quarter of '25 and has yielded about $20 million of EBITDA improvement on a run rate basis at this point through '26. So that's number one.
可以。Andrew,我先用幾個大類來說明。在2025年,我們已全面部署了我們的AI連結、我們稱之為「pro pricing」的商業定價工具;該工具在2025年第四季完成全面部署,並在2026年迄今以年化運行率口徑帶來約2,000萬美元的EBITDA改善。這是第一項。
We are putting in what I would call a dynamic, real-time AI-driven algorithm for routing. And we began beta testing or pilot testing that in late Q2 of '26 and that is not set to be fully deployed until the end of '27. So really not impactful to the P&L until '28. And as we go through '28 and '29, we expect roughly $40 million, maybe up to $50 million of route-related savings from that initiative as we come through '28 and '29.
我們正在導入我所稱的、用於路線規劃的動態即時AI驅動演算法。我們在2026年第二季末開始進行Beta測試或試點測試,且預計要到2027年底才會全面部署。因此在2028年之前對損益表基本不會有影響。而在2028年與2029年期間,隨著該計畫逐步落地,我們預期可帶來約4,000萬美元、可能高達5,000萬美元的路線相關節省。
And then we are beginning in the end of Q3, beginning in Q4 of this year, '26 what we -- is some AI technology we are putting in some angentic AI into our customer service approach and a mobile application for customers, particularly residential customers, and that will not be, again, being deployed until the second quarter of '27 and will be fully deployed as we come through the early part to the mid part of '28.
接著,我們將在今年2026年第三季末開始、第四季啟動導入一些AI技術——我們會把一些代理式AI(agentic AI)納入我們的客服方式,以及面向客戶、特別是住宅客戶的行動應用程式。
And again, we're expecting probably somewhere in that $20 million to $35 million initial cut is the impact from EBITDA. As we said, we're investing about $100 million in the AI-related technologies across seven programs. And we expect about $100 million or 100 basis points, which is about the same of improvement in EBITDA as we come through '28 into '29.
同樣地,我們預期EBITDA的影響大概會在2,000萬到3,500萬美元的初始降本幅度。如我們所說,我們在七個計畫中合計投資約1億美元於AI相關技術。我們預期在2028年至2029年期間,EBITDA可改善約1億美元或100個基點,兩者大致相當。
Andrew Azzi - Analyst
Andrew Azzi - Analyst
I really appreciate all the quantitative breakout. That's great to hear. I guess, secondly, on special waste tons. We've seen a lot of improvement as of late. Can you talk about some of the verticals that are driving that strength? And how you think about the durability of the contribution to both volume and margin into '27?
非常感謝你把量化拆解得這麼清楚。這很棒。第二個問題是關於特殊廢棄物(special waste)噸數。我們最近看到改善幅度很大。你能談談是哪些垂直領域在推動這股強勢嗎?以及你如何看待其對2027年之前的量與利潤率貢獻的持續性?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, what I'd say is that we mentioned last quarter that we saw a pickup in special waste. We mentioned this quarter that there was actually a slowdown, which is a reminder that it can be lumpy. And that, as we've said, perhaps that the spike in fuel put a little pause on some projects, but that the demand is out there. And ultimately, it will come to market.
我會說,我們在上季提到特殊廢棄物有所回升。而這一季我們提到其實出現了放緩,這也提醒大家它可能會比較波動、不均勻。並且,如我們所說,燃料價格的飆升可能讓一些專案稍微按下暫停鍵,但需求仍然存在。最終它會回到市場上。
I'd say keep in mind that it's a very small piece, a couple of points of revenue is what special waste is, but it's more about the indication of the underlying economy and the fact that there's some cyclical growth, which we just really haven't seen.
另外也請記得,特殊廢棄物在營收中占比非常小,大概只有幾個百分點;但它更重要的是反映基礎經濟狀況,以及存在一些週期性成長,而我們其實已經很久沒有看到這種情況了。
And then similarly, C&D tons, as we said, they were positive really for the first time in a couple of years, and that's encouraging. And it's not a surprise that it's in our central region where we saw high special waste in Q1, which should be an indicator of construction and demolition debris in subsequent periods.
同樣地,正如我們所說,建築與拆除(C&D)噸數在幾年來首次轉為正成長,這令人鼓舞。而且不意外的是,這發生在我們的中部地區——我們在第一季看到該地區特殊廢棄物很高,這通常會是後續期間建築與拆除廢棄物的指標。
Operator
Operator
Chris Murray, ATB Cormark Capital Markets.
Chris Murray,ATB Cormark Capital Markets。
Chris Murray - Analyst
Chris Murray - Analyst
Maybe just taking a stab and thinking about cash flow conversion as we go into 2027. And you've referenced the fact that you've got some normalized spending coming lower RNG, maybe Chiquita rolls off. How should we be thinking about between the margin improvement that it will start to develop and some of these things coming off. How do we think about the cash flow conversion? Is there anything unusual to be thinking about as we start entering that period?
我想嘗試從現金流轉換率的角度來看2027年。你提到有一些正常化支出會下降,例如RNG,可能還有Chiquita逐步結束。我們應該如何在利潤率改善開始顯現,以及這些項目逐步退出之間,來思考現金流轉換率?我們該如何看待現金流轉換?在我們開始進入那個期間時,有沒有什麼不尋常的事項需要留意?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Chris, obviously, it's early days to be talking with any specificity about '27. We'll look forward to giving guidance. But what we know now is that we have visibility on the RNG spend, and so that's $75 million. And so that informs our thinking. And we also have reiterated that the Chiquita outlays will be less in '27 than they were in '26.
Chris,顯然現在要非常具體地談2027年還為時過早。我們會在之後提供指引。但我們目前知道的是,我們對RNG支出有可見度,金額是7,500萬美元。因此這會影響我們的思考。我們也再次重申,Chiquita的資本支出在2027年會低於2026年。
So again, those two pieces on their own certainly take us north of the 41% to 42% free cash flow conversion you see in the current period and gets us more in the direction of where we'd expect to land, which would be in that 48% to 50%, which is historically where we've been, but for some periods where we were anomalistically higher we've gotten as high as 52% or 53%, but we would encourage people to think of more normalized being 48% to 50%.
所以,單就這兩項而言,確實會把我們帶到高於目前期間你看到的41%到42%的自由現金流轉換率,並更接近我們預期的落點,也就是48%到50%——這在歷史上是我們的常態水準;只是有些期間我們異常偏高,曾達到52%或53%,但我們會建議大家把較正常化的水準視為48%到50%。
Chris Murray - Analyst
Chris Murray - Analyst
Okay. And so there's no real expectation for special spend or anything like that. In fact, kind of it feels like '27 is shaping up to be the first of a normal year and maybe a few in a row, is that the right way to kind of frame it or think about it?
好的。所以並不預期會有特殊支出或類似的事情。事實上,感覺2027年正在成為第一個「正常年份」,而且可能會連續幾年都是如此;這樣的表述或理解方式正確嗎?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's fair. I mean we've mentioned the AI spend continues. Again, that's not a big number, but ongoing spending there. But no, I think your observation that the lumpier piece, which was specifically RNG is behind us.
這樣說合理。我的意思是,我們提到AI支出仍會持續。同樣地,那不是一個很大的數字,但會有持續性的投入。不過,是的,我認為你的觀察是對的:較為波動、較不均勻的那一塊——特別是RNG——已經在我們身後了。
Operator
Operator
Trevor Romeo, William Blair.
Trevor Romeo,William Blair。
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
Trevor Romeo - Equity Analyst
I just had one on PFAS. I think there was a recent announcement about a new treatment facility you're working on at one of your landfills in North Carolina. I think you have a few other treatment plants that are other land folks do. So question is, how are you thinking about being proactive and getting ahead of regulations versus being reactive?
我剛剛有一題是關於 PFAS。我記得最近有公告提到,你們正在北卡羅來納州某座掩埋場推動一座新的處理設施。我想你們還有幾座其他的處理廠,其他掩埋場業者也有。所以問題是,你們如何看待主動超前因應法規、而不是被動反應?
And can you just talk about the economics of building an on-site treatment plant versus sending leachate elsewhere and kind of the return on that capital?
另外,你能否談談在現場興建處理廠、相較於把滲濾液送到其他地方處理的經濟性,以及這筆資本投入的報酬?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Well, Trevor, I mean, I think the opening of a treatment plant in the Carolinas that we talked about and that you're referencing is an example of trying to be proactive versus reactive. It is an example of rising leachate costs at POTW related to PFAS and other requirements that are being put on by state and federal regulators. And so knowing that, this is something we've been doing for four to five years, quite honestly, we deploy multiple mobile relatively inexpensive technologies that depends on which one we use basically separates the PFAS and solidifies it through a foam fractionation process allowing us to ultimately bury it in the landfill and clean the leachate to a point of acceptable discharge.
是的。Trevor,我的意思是,我認為我們先前談到、你所提到的卡羅來納地區處理廠啟用,就是我們試圖主動而非被動的一個例子。這也反映了與 PFAS 及其他要求相關、由州與聯邦監管機構加諸的規範,導致在 POTW 的滲濾液處理成本上升。因此在了解這點之後,坦白說,這是我們已經做了四到五年的事情:我們部署多種可移動、相對低成本的技術;依據採用的技術不同,基本上是把 PFAS 分離出來,並透過泡沫分離(foam fractionation)程序將其固化,使我們最終能把它掩埋於掩埋場,同時把滲濾液淨化到可接受的排放標準。
So this is an internal -- these are internal projects. We're not out there marketing the third parties that we will send landfills in surrounding areas that we have to this one and use it sort of the hub to treat PFAS. And it's ultimately sort of a hedge against a rapidly rising leachate treatment costs at POTWs that is going on everywhere.
所以這是內部——這些都是內部專案。我們並沒有在市場上對第三方行銷;我們會把周邊地區我們所擁有的掩埋場的滲濾液送到這裡,並把它當作處理 PFAS 的樞紐。而這最終也算是一種對沖,用來因應各地 POTW 滲濾液處理成本快速上升的情況。
We recognized this many years ago and started investigating and investing and deploying these technologies. So we have these at several of our sites, you'll see them continue to come at several more. There's sort of a normal course of CapEx at this point in time for us, and they drop that treatment cost relative to third party quite significantly.
我們多年前就意識到這點,並開始研究、投資並部署這些技術。因此我們在好幾個場址都有這些設備,你也會看到我們在更多場址持續導入。就目前而言,這已成為我們正常的資本支出(CapEx)項目之一,而且相較於委外第三方處理,能大幅降低處理成本。
Operator
Operator
Saba Khan, RBC Capital Markets.
Saba Khan,RBC Capital Markets。
Bhaven Shah - Analyst
Bhaven Shah - Analyst
This is Bhaven on the line for Saba. My question was more related to M&A activity. You already noted that you're going to have an outsized year. Can you talk a little bit about the type of assets that are in your pipeline, kind of what's in the market today and what the cadence is for the back half of the year?
我是 Bhaven,代 Saba 在線上提問。我的問題比較與併購(M&A)活動相關。你們已經提到今年會是特別突出的一年。能否談談你們管線中的資產類型、目前市場上有哪些標的,以及今年下半年的節奏會是如何?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Happy to. I mean, obviously, the cadence will be determined by seller timing and getting through consents and the other typical closing procedures. But I think if you imagine that we've already talked about, there's an additional $30 million that we'll be closing here over the next few weeks of exclusive franchises, there'll be additional that close throughout Q3 and then a normal course that will close in Q4, getting us to north of our sort of outsized year or minimum year, I would say. These are all typical singles and doubles, Waste Connections, deals in solid waste.
當然。很樂意。我的意思是,節奏顯然會取決於賣方時點,以及取得同意與完成其他典型交割程序的進度。但我想,如果你回想我們已經談過的,接下來幾週我們還會完成額外 3,000 萬美元的獨家特許經營案交割;之後在第三季還會有更多案子完成,第四季也會有一些正常進度的案子完成,讓我們達到高於我們所謂「特別突出的一年」或我會說的最低目標水準。這些都是典型的「一壘安打、二壘安打」式交易,也就是 Waste Connections 在固體廢棄物領域的交易。
There may be some one or two small E&P deals in there in either Canada or the US, but these are traditional solid waste steels, nothing varying from that. They are in both our competitive and our exclusive footprint, they are collection and transfer and processing and in some cases, disposal. So what I would just sort of call down the middle of the fairway, M&A deals for Waste Connections that is, we believe, compounds and creates the most value over time. So nothing abnormal coming in the pipeline, the balance of this year or in the foreseeable future.
其中可能會有一到兩筆小型的 E&P 交易,地點可能在加拿大或美國,但整體而言都是傳統的固體廢棄物交易,沒有偏離這個範疇。標的涵蓋我們的競爭型與獨家經營版圖,業務包括收運、轉運與處理,在某些情況下也包含最終處置。所以我會把它稱為走在球道正中央的、Waste Connections 的併購交易;我們相信這類交易能隨時間複利累積並創造最大價值。因此,今年剩餘時間或可預見的未來,管線中沒有任何不尋常的情況。
Operator
Operator
Tobey Sommer, Truist.
Tobey Sommer,Truist。
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
Tobey Sommer - Analyst
I wanted to get your perspective on rail opportunities and how that integrates into the network. You've got experience in that arena. And I wanted to get sort of your nearer-term and longer-term perspectives for how much that is going to grow as a component of your business?
我想請你談談鐵路運輸的機會,以及它如何整合進你們的網路。你在這個領域有經驗。我也想了解你對於短期與長期的看法:這部分作為你們業務組成,未來會成長到什麼程度?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Happy to, Tobey. Well, first off, as we've said for quite some time, rail is today a fairly geographic-centric modality that is being used predominantly off the upper northeastern seaboard due to both limitations of available landfill capacity and expansion and the economics of higher tip fees in that region.
當然。很樂意,Tobey。首先,正如我們一段時間以來所說,鐵路目前是一種相當具有地理集中性的運輸方式,主要用於美國東北上部沿海地區,原因在於可用掩埋容量與擴建受限,以及該區較高的傾倒費(tip fees)所帶來的經濟性。
So that continues to be the primary driver. We've grown our Arrowhead landfill rail network over the last 2 years by effectively 300% now, and all of that is moving off the eastern seaboard from sort of New Jersey north through our intermodal facilities, and we'll continue to grow that as we go forward.
因此這仍是主要驅動因素。過去兩年,我們的 Arrowhead 掩埋場鐵路網路已有效成長約 300%,而這些量都從東岸沿海地區移出,大致從新澤西一路往北,經由我們的複合運輸(intermodal)設施運送;未來我們也會持續擴大。
I mentioned on last quarter's earnings call that we would begin a rail project in the Southeast. It is specific to Florida. It's specific to some disposal incineration issues that happened down in Miami-Dade County and us and one of our public peers have been awarded long-term agreements to take volumes north of Miami in True North Central Florida on rail at our landfills. We began that in mid- to late Q2 and it's continuing to start to ramp in Q3 as we speak, and we'll continue to do so throughout the balance of the year as that operation becomes smoother and the customer receives more and more railcars from the supplier.
我在上一季的法說會提到,我們會在美國東南部啟動一個鐵路專案。這個專案是針對佛羅里達州。它與邁阿密-戴德郡(Miami-Dade County)發生的一些處置與焚化問題有關;我們與一家上市同業獲得長期合約,將把邁阿密以北、位於佛州中北部(True North Central Florida)的量,透過鐵路運至我們的掩埋場處置。我們在第二季中後段開始執行,目前正如你所見在第三季持續爬坡,並會在今年剩餘時間持續推進,隨著營運更順暢,以及客戶從供應商那裡收到越來越多的鐵路車廂。
So it's an opportunity that's now in the lower Southeast due to a unique situation. You don't really see it being an opportunity in other geographies today. It has been an opportunity in the Pacific Northwest for a long time for about 25 years now, 1/3 of the Waste in the upper Northwest moves via rail. That will continue to expand over time. So this is never going to grow to be an enormous portion of our business, but it certainly is a small portion that is growing nicely at this time.
所以,由於一個特殊情況,這在東南下部現在是一個機會。你目前不太會在其他地理區域看到它成為機會。而在太平洋西北地區,這長期以來一直是個機會,約 25 年了;西北上部約三分之一的廢棄物是透過鐵路運輸。這會隨時間持續擴大。因此,這永遠不會成長為我們業務中非常龐大的部分,但它確實是一個目前成長相當不錯的小型組成。
Operator
Operator
Aadit Shrestha, Stifel.
Aadit Shrestha,Stifel。
Aadit Shrestha - Analyst
Aadit Shrestha - Analyst
Just on the core pricing yield spread, I think that improved again like sort of 30 bps from 1Q. 1Q was around 130 bps. This quarter, it was around 100 bps I understand there could be a mix kind of factor impacting that. But could you just talk about maybe like the spread going forward, if this is sort of a reasonable expectation. And what makes your business so unique that so -- and the spread being so much about some of your peers, which we usually report closer 200 bps?
關於核心定價與收益率(yield)的價差(spread),我認為相較第一季又改善了大約 30 個基點。第一季大約是 130 個基點。這一季我理解大約是 100 個基點,可能有組合(mix)因素在影響。但你能否談談未來這個價差的走勢,這是否算是合理的預期?以及是什麼讓你們的業務如此獨特,以致於——你們的價差相較某些同業小很多,而同業通常報告的數字更接近 200 個基點?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So with respect to the sequential differences, I would attribute those to mix. I would say that what you have always in the -- of course, the difference between core price and yield. Will be mixed and not just mix by line of business but also mix by geography, dramatically different wins and losses in different markets, for instance, in the eastern part of the country versus the Southeast.
當然。就序列性差異而言,我會把它歸因於組合因素。我會說,你一直都會看到——當然,核心價格與收益率之間的差異,會受到組合影響,而且不只是按業務線的組合,也會受到地理區域組合影響;例如在美國東部與東南部等不同市場,贏單與流失的情況會有非常顯著的差異。
The other point being churn, which we said churn is an impact, and so I wouldn't encourage you to think that something improved in Q2 versus Q1. In fact, we pointed out that we think the introduction or the increase in fuel surcharges has probably increased or exacerbated the churn we were seeing in the business. And I really can't speak to our peers and what they see in their business. But we would always remind folks that our strategy is purposeful in thinking about the competitive intensity of markets and the ability to retain price. And so you would expect that as it has historically to impact how much price we keep which is what you see in yields.
另一點是流失率(churn),我們說過流失率是一種影響,因此我不會鼓勵你認為第二季相較第一季有什麼改善。事實上,我們指出,我們認為燃油附加費的導入或提高,可能已經增加或加劇了我們在業務中看到的流失。而我確實無法代表同業發言,說他們在各自業務中看到什麼。但我們一向會提醒大家,我們的策略是有目的地考量市場的競爭強度,以及維持價格的能力。因此你會預期,如同過往歷史一樣,這會影響我們能保留多少價格,也就是你在收益率(yields)中所看到的。
Operator
Operator
Christina Bettink, BNP Paribas.
Christina Bettink,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Christina Bettink - Analyst
Christina Bettink - Analyst
This is Christina on for Seth Weber. So just one quick one for you guys. Could you update us on the Seneca Meadows expansion that was filed recently earlier this month? And where you guys kind of see the permitting time line from here? And how you guys are thinking of managing the aerospace and volumes at this site in the meantime, whether it be by rail or truck?
我是 Christina,代替 Seth Weber 發問。所以我這邊只有一個很快的問題。能否更新一下本月稍早最近提交的 Seneca Meadows 擴建案進度?以及你們目前對後續許可(permitting)時程的看法?另外,在此期間你們打算如何管理該場址的空間(airspace)與進場量(volumes),例如透過鐵路或卡車?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Let's take the second part of that first. We are managing the air space there to make certain that we have adequate airspace for customers, external as well as internal until we are able to get the expansion permit and construct the first expansion airspace. We are doing that both by rail and truck. We're moving some of our volumes out of Seneca down by rail through our network to Arrowhead and elsewhere to help manage those time lines.
好的。我們先回答第二部分。我們正在管理那裡的空間(airspace),以確保在我們取得擴建許可並建造第一期擴建空間之前,能為客戶(外部與內部)保留足夠的空間。我們同時透過鐵路與卡車來進行。我們把部分原本進 Seneca 的量,透過我們的網路以鐵路往南運到 Arrowhead 及其他地點,以協助管理這些時程。
And so most of the volume into Seneca, of course, is all by truck. Secondly, the process is moving along well. We've had some very important recent legal victories and rulings and regulatory rulings in our favor. In fact, all of them at this point in time. And so we feel very good about it. But we're still working our way through a state technical process on the permit.
因此,當然,進 Seneca 的大部分量都是用卡車運輸。第二,流程進展得很順利。我們最近在法律層面與裁決,以及監管裁決方面,取得了幾項非常重要、對我們有利的勝利。事實上,截至目前為止全部都是對我們有利的。所以我們感覺非常好。但我們仍在就許可證進行州政府的技術審查流程。
And we would expect that relatively soon. but you're probably looking at somewhere closer to the end of this year or thereabouts for final achievement of that is our current expectations.
我們預期會在相對不久的時間內完成,但以目前的預期來看,你可能要看到今年年底左右,才會最終達成。
There can be nothing guaranteed about this. This is a technical process. It is also -- there's a political process involved in it. But the vast majority of the political and legal process we are through at this point in time.
這件事沒有任何保證。這是一個技術流程。同時——其中也牽涉政治流程。但截至目前,我們已經走完了絕大多數的政治與法律流程。
Operator
Operator
Jon Windham, Union Bank of Switzerland.
Jon Windham,瑞士銀行(Union Bank of Switzerland)。
Jon Windham - Analyst
Jon Windham - Analyst
Nice result, nice raise on the guidance. My question is around interest rates. The 10-year has been sort of steadily trending upwards. The way I've thought of a rising interest rate in the past, is it further enhances your funding advantage compared to private players, which could be helpful about pricing and to M&A. Ron and Mary Anne, I would love your thoughts on the impact of a rising rate environment.
成果很好,也很高興你們上調指引。我的問題是關於利率。10 年期利率一直在穩步走升。我過去對利率上升的理解是,它會進一步強化你們相較於私人業者的融資優勢,這可能有助於定價以及併購(M&A)。Ron 和 Mary Anne,我很想聽聽你們對利率上升環境影響的看法。
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jon, yes, I wouldn't disagree with you that we always feel good about being well positioned with respect to our balance sheet, our access to low-cost capital. We do think it is a differentiator. And certainly, as between public and private, privates are more impacted when you see rates rise. And so I would agree with that. So it is a competitive advantage to us.
Jon,是的,我不會不同意你的看法:我們一向對自身在資產負債表、取得低成本資本的能力方面具備良好定位而感到有信心。我們確實認為這是一項差異化優勢。而且,特別是在上市公司與私人公司之間比較時,當利率上升,私人公司受到的影響更大。所以我同意這點。因此,這對我們而言是一項競爭優勢。
But the other factor that I'd point out is what interest rates do, for instance, to the more cyclical component of the business and the fact that, that could be something discouraging growth and development, which leads to more volume. So there, we'd be like everyone else and that the overall macro is arguably impacted by interest rates as well. So a double-edged sword.
但我也想指出另一個因素:利率對業務中較具循環性的部分會造成什麼影響;因為利率可能會抑制成長與開發,而這會帶來更多量。所以在那方面,我們和其他人一樣,整體總體環境也可以說會受到利率影響。因此是一把雙面刃。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And I would say, Jon, to your comment, you are accurate. Look, we have always talked about there are at least three factors outside our control that help improve or decelerate external M&A from private companies. Rising interest rates help but they help for reasons different than you might think. They help because sellers perceive they can take their after-tax proceeds and reinvest in low volatility investments and derive the same or better lifestyle than taking it from their company.
是的。Jon,就你剛才的評論而言,你的判斷是正確的。你看,我們一直談到,至少有三個我們無法控制的因素,會促使或減緩來自私人公司的外部併購(M&A)。利率上升確實有幫助,但幫助的原因可能與你想的不太一樣。它之所以有幫助,是因為賣方認為他們可以把稅後所得再投資於低波動的投資,並獲得與從公司取得相同或更好的生活水準。
They can't do that in a low interest rate environment. So it helps in that way. Secondly, a rising tax rate helps because sellers fear of sitting and neutral on a net basis even after they grow their business several years. So that's an accelerant dropping -- lowering taxes is the reverse. And then the third is the macro economy. -- sellers want to sell in a rising macroeconomic environment when they believe their business has a fair and full value.
在低利率環境下,他們做不到這點。所以它在這方面有幫助。第二,稅率上升也有幫助,因為賣方擔心即使未來幾年把業務做大,稅後淨額可能仍然打平、沒有實質增加。所以這是一個加速因素——降低稅率則相反。第三是總體經濟——賣方希望在總體經濟上行時出售,因為他們相信自己的企業能獲得合理且充分的估值。
So those are three things outside our control, and that's how it affects M&A.
所以這三件事都不在我們控制之內,而這就是它對併購(M&A)的影響方式。
Operator
Operator
Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Co.
Noah Kaye,Oppenheimer & Co.。
Noah Kaye - Analyst
Noah Kaye - Analyst
Just going back to capital allocation. You spent, I think, $51 million on undeveloped land in your existing facilities. That's the first time in 6 years. Anything strategic associated with that, that you could help us understand that for landfill expansion or something else?
回到資本配置。我記得你們在既有設施附近的未開發土地上花了約 5,100 萬美元。這是 6 年來第一次。這背後有什麼策略性考量嗎?你們能否協助我們理解,這是為了掩埋場擴建或其他用途?
Maybe just give a little color there. And then the follow-on was just the incremental RNG contribution next year since you're already pacing ahead of your expectations for this year?
也許可以補充一些背景。接著的追問是:既然你們今年的 RNG 貢獻已經超前原先預期,那明年 RNG 的增量貢獻會是多少?
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Mary Whitney - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. So I'll start with the undeveloped land. No, that is strategic and it's opportunistic. -- episodically, we have the opportunity to buy something for future development. And it's an example, in this case, of future development for facilities as opposed to landfills in a market in Florida that's been growing as a result of acquisition and other impacts.
好的。我先談未開發土地。是的,那是策略性的,同時也是把握機會——我們會在某些時點有機會買到可供未來開發的資產。這次就是一個例子:是為了設施的未來開發,而不是掩埋場;地點在佛羅里達的一個市場,該市場因併購及其他因素而成長。
And there's a unique opportunity real estate-wise. So an expensive real estate market with limited opportunities. And so that's what you saw in the $51 million purchase there.
而且從不動產角度來看有一個獨特的機會。那是一個房地產價格昂貴、機會有限的市場。所以你看到的就是那筆 5,100 萬美元的購置。
Secondly, with respect to R&D, the way I think about it is we've talked about this $100 million to $150 million in contribution and kind of bucketed in third and that we're on the second of the third. So kind of 2/3 of the way in this year is what we're expecting. And so when we communicated in our outlook for the full year, we stepped it up partly because we're getting a little more call it, in the order of $15 million to $20 million more in contribution from RNG this year, then we had factored into our full year guidance.
第二,關於研發(R&D),我的看法是:我們談過貢獻約 1 億到 1.5 億美元,並大致分成三個階段,而我們目前在第二個階段。所以今年我們預期大概已經走到 2/3 的進度。因此,當我們在全年展望中溝通時,我們之所以上調,部分原因是今年來自 RNG 的貢獻比我們原先納入全年指引的假設多了約 1,500 萬到 2,000 萬美元。
And so the way we think about it, it leaves the final 1/3 next year. And I would also say final third with a little better margin contribution because PAUSE we're absorbing a lot of the start-up costs this year, and so it's less impactful from a margin standpoint.
因此我們的看法是,這會把最後的 1/3 留到明年。另外我也會說,最後三分之一的毛利貢獻會稍微好一些,因為 PAUSE 我們今年吸收了大量的啟動成本,所以從毛利率的角度來看影響較小。
Operator
Operator
Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.
Stephanie Moore,Jefferies。
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Stephanie Moore - Analyst
Sorry about that, I was indeed muted and then my headphones died. Welcome to the beginning of earnings season, I think one question, I think we keep getting quite a bit would just be on underlying volume performance. I think there's a lot of moving pieces when you think about just what the overall healthy the economy is doing, maybe even just industrial economy and then also I think, what is the industry's actions to be really concerted about which type of volumes you bring on.
抱歉,我確實是被靜音了,然後我的耳機也沒電了。歡迎來到財報季的開始。我想有一個問題我們一直被問到不少,就是關於基礎量的表現。我認為當你思考整體經濟的健康狀況,甚至只是工業經濟時,會有很多變動因素;另外我也認為,產業在行動上也會更有意識、更一致地去選擇要承接哪一類的量。
So maybe just to level set, how should we think about just the underlying volume growth of the industry with all those things and taking into account as you think over the next several years?
所以也許先校準一下,在考量上述所有因素的情況下,並且放眼未來幾年,你認為我們應該如何看待整個產業的基礎量成長?
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Well, I mean, there's a lot of parts to that question you answered. As I'll try to answer them. As clear as we can. First off, historically, Stephanie, I would tell you that, look.
當然。嗯,我的意思是,你的問題裡面其實包含了很多部分。我會試著逐一回答。盡可能講清楚。首先,Stephanie,從歷史來看,我會告訴你,聽著。
There's only two things that affect the underlying volume growth since everybody has what our industry does, whether they be commercial, residential or otherwise. And that is true GDP spending nonfederal government spending in GDP and population growth. So where are we in that cycle right now?
影響基礎量成長的因素只有兩個,因為不論是商業、住宅或其他類別,大家做的都是我們這個產業的事情。那就是:GDP 中的實質支出(非聯邦政府支出)以及人口成長。那我們現在處於這個循環的哪個位置?
Population growth is effectively 0, actually perhaps negative. And GDP in Q2, non-government spending was about 1.3%. So you start with -- you can't be much better than 1% in total volumes if you're -- with that, if there's a little bit negative population growth. If you look at our Western region. Remember, that's 100% exclusive.
人口成長基本上是 0,實際上可能還是負的。而在第二季,GDP 中的非政府支出大約是 1.3%。所以你從這裡出發——在這種情況下,如果人口成長還略為負,你的總量要好到超過 1% 其實很難。如果你看我們的西部區域。記住,那是 100% 獨家。
We get every drop of waste in our franchise. And a customer cannot use anyone else residentially, commercially, industrial, manufacturing and construction. We had 1% volume growth in Q1. So that's about as good as it gets in this economic environment.
我們在我們的特許經營區內拿到每一滴廢棄物。客戶在住宅、商業、工業、製造與建築方面都不能使用其他業者。我們在第一季的量成長是 1%。所以在這樣的經濟環境下,這差不多就是上限了。
Last year, that range had growth of 2.5 to 3. So it did step down some at least as that as an indicator from last year at this point. That region typically runs between 2% and 3.5%. So if you're getting everything, which doesn't happen in competitive markets, that's where your cap is. The public companies, the strategic companies have been very consistent on price/cost spread and not being all things to all people.
去年,那個區間的成長是 2.5% 到 3%。所以至少就這個指標而言,相較於去年同期確實下滑了一些。那個區域通常落在 2% 到 3.5% 之間。所以如果你拿到所有的量——而在競爭市場這不會發生——那就是你的天花板。上市公司、策略型公司在價格/成本差(price/cost spread)以及不試圖滿足所有人的所有需求方面,一直都非常一致。
There are segments of this business that the private are very good in. They live on a 5% to 10% EBITDA margin. That is not a margin the public companies are looking at.
這個業務裡有一些細分領域,民營業者做得非常好。他們以 5% 到 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率生存。這不是上市公司想要的利潤率水準。
And so the public companies are not pursuing a residential subscription. They're not pursuing low-priced HOAs and municipal residential contracts. That's where the privates are getting a lot of their growth, both small privates and private equity companies. And we're happy to let them have that. That's not a business that we could convert to a 30% to 35% EBITDA business.
因此上市公司不會去追求住宅訂閱型業務。也不會去追求低價的 HOA(住戶協會)以及市政住宅合約。那正是民營業者(小型民營與私募股權公司)取得大量成長的地方。我們也樂於讓他們去做。那不是我們能夠轉化成 30% 到 35% EBITDA 的業務。
So you're going to see that volumes are going to be somewhat flat to negative unless there's a macro change. And I think the market would see that's okay. If margins are moving up and volumes are nominally negative, you should be happy. If margins are moving backwards when volumes are negative, will then there are some trade-off happening that's not worth it. That's not where we're at as a company or as an industry on the publicly traded side, I would argue.
所以除非宏觀環境出現變化,否則你會看到量大致持平到下滑。我認為市場會覺得這沒問題。如果利潤率在上升、而量名目上略為負,你應該感到滿意。如果在量為負的時候利潤率反而倒退,那就代表有一些取捨正在發生,而那是不值得的。我認為,無論就我們公司或就公開交易的產業端而言,都不是那樣的狀況。
So again, not all EBITDA is created equally, and not all volumes are created equally, and we don't want all volumes. And I think that's really important to understand.
所以再說一次,不是所有 EBITDA 都一樣,也不是所有的量都一樣,而我們也不想要所有的量。我認為理解這一點非常重要。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Ron Mittelstaedt for closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Ron Mittelstaedt 做結語。
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ronald Mittelstaedt - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we're able to cover under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again, and we look forward to connecting with you at an upcoming investor conference or on our next earnings call.
好的,如果沒有其他問題,我謹代表我們整個管理團隊,感謝各位今天收聽並關注本次電話會議。Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 今天也會在,針對我們在符合 FD 規範(Regulation FD)、G 規範(Regulation G)以及加拿大適用證券法規的前提下,回答任何我們尚未涵蓋、但可以回答的直接問題。再次感謝,我們期待在即將到來的投資人會議或下一次財報電話會議與各位交流。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。