Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Waste Connections Inc Q1 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the conference over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

各位好。感謝各位加入，歡迎參加 Waste Connections Inc 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我將把會議交給總裁兼執行長 Ron Mittelstaedt。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our first quarter results. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO; as well as several other members of our senior management. As noted in our earnings release, we are well positioned for 2026 following a strong start with upside potential from recent trends. We do not -- we not only exceeded expectations for revenue and EBITDA, but delivered EBITDA margin of 32.5%, up 90 basis points year-over-year, excluding commodity impacts in spite of outsized weather impacts and in advance of recovering higher fuel costs.

謝謝，接線員，大家早安。我想歡迎各位參加本次電話會議，討論我們第一季的業績。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的財務長 Mary Anne Whitney，以及其他幾位高階管理團隊成員。如同我們在財報新聞稿中所提到的，在近期趨勢帶來的上行潛力之下，我們在 2026 年具備良好布局，並以強勁開局奠定基礎。我們不僅在營收與 EBITDA 方面超越預期，且在排除大宗商品影響後，儘管遭遇顯著的天候衝擊並且在回收較高燃料成本之前，仍繳出 32.5% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，年增 90 個基點。

Against a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, our results reflect the durability of our model and consistency of execution as we continue to benefit from improved operating trends, along with recent increase in commodities and special waste activity.

在多變的總體經濟與地緣政治背景下，我們的成果反映出商業模式的韌性與執行的一致性；同時，我們也持續受惠於營運趨勢改善，以及近期大宗商品與特殊廢棄物活動的增加。

Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

在我們進一步深入細節之前，先把電話交給 Mary Anne，由她說明前瞻性聲明的免責事項以及其他例行事項。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in the cautionary statement included in our April 22 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections' filings with the US.

謝謝你，Ron，大家早安。今天電話會議中的討論包含前瞻性陳述，係依據 1995 年《美國私人證券訴訟改革法》之安全港條款作出，並包含在適用的加拿大證券法下所定義的前瞻性資訊。由於各種風險與不確定性，實際結果可能與此等前瞻性陳述所述內容存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果不同的因素，已在我們 4 月 22 日的財報新聞稿所載警示聲明中討論，並在 Waste Connections 向美國提交的申報文件中有更詳細說明。

Securities and Exchange Commission and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.

包括向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）以及加拿大的證券委員會或類似監管機關提交的文件。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，因為可能存在我們目前尚未知悉或目前認為不重大、但可能對我們業務造成不利影響的其他風險。我們不承諾為反映今日之後可能發生的事件或情況變化而修訂或更新任何前瞻性陳述。

On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論非 GAAP 指標，例如調整後 EBITDA、以金額及每股稀釋後基礎呈列的調整後淨利，以及調整後自由現金流。請參閱我們的財報新聞稿，以取得此等非 GAAP 指標與最可比 GAAP 指標之調節表。管理階層使用某些非 GAAP 指標來評估並監控我們營運的持續財務表現。其他公司可能以不同方式計算這些非 GAAP 指標。

I will now turn the call back over to Ron.

現在我把電話交回給 Ron。

Thank you, Mary Anne. On the strength of our business and consistent execution, 2026 is off to a great start with results exceeding expectations. Despite the volatility of the broader macro environment, we haven't seen anything to date that doesn't support our full year outlook as provided in February. In fact, we believe we should be well positioned for incremental benefits, both from external factors driving higher fuel and other commodities and also as a result of our ongoing investments in human capital and AI, which have broad implications for our operations, along with continued M&A. In Q1, we saw improving dynamics across our business, starting with better-than-expected solid waste pricing retention, resulting in core price of 6%, providing visibility for the high end of our full year 2026 outlook of 5% to 5.5%.

謝謝你，Mary Anne。憑藉我們業務的實力與一貫的執行力，2026 年有個非常好的開局，業績超越預期。儘管整體總體環境波動，我們迄今未看到任何不支持我們在 2 月所提供之全年展望的情況。事實上，我們認為我們應能處於有利位置以取得額外效益，來源包括外部因素推升燃料及其他大宗商品價格，以及我們持續在人力資本與 AI 上的投資（對營運具有廣泛影響），並搭配持續的併購活動。在第一季，我們看到整體業務動能改善，首先是固體廢棄物定價留存優於預期，使核心價格達到 6%，並為我們 2026 年全年 5% 至 5.5% 展望區間的高端提供能見度。

Next, our landfill tons were slightly stronger than expected, offsetting the volume impacts from slowdowns and closures related to severe winter weather, which persisted in several markets, most notably in the Northeast. Landfill activity was led by higher special waste tons, up 8% year-over-year in Q1, the sixth consecutive quarter of improving special waste. Looking next at the aspects of our results related to crude oil prices and related volatility, which are twofold.

其次，我們的掩埋場進場噸數略強於預期，抵銷了嚴冬天候造成的放緩與停工所帶來的量能影響；此情況在多個市場持續發生，尤其以美國東北部最為明顯。掩埋場活動主要由較高的特殊廢棄物噸數帶動，第一季年增 8%，為特殊廢棄物連續第六季改善。接著談到與原油價格及其波動相關的業績面向，主要有兩個部分。

First, our E&P waste business, where revenues increased sequentially and were up about 4% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis. We saw increases both in Canada on greater production-oriented activity and higher pricing and in the US on drilling-oriented activity, most notably in the Gulf. To date, we haven't seen a meaningful increase in rig count or pickup in drilling activity, which may be driven by sustained higher crude prices or long-term supply disruptions and would be additive to the levels we are currently experiencing. Next, fuel and related costs. Spot diesel in the US was up 12% year-over-year, including an increase of over 35% in March.

第一，我們的 E&P（勘探與生產）廢棄物業務，營收較前一季增加，且以同店基礎計算年增約 4%。我們看到加拿大因更多以生產為導向的活動與較高定價而增加；美國則因以鑽井為導向的活動而增加，最明顯的是墨西哥灣地區。截至目前，我們尚未看到鑽機數量有顯著增加或鑽井活動明顯回升；若原油價格持續走高或長期供給中斷，可能驅動上述變化，並將在我們目前的水準之上帶來額外增量。接下來是燃料及相關成本。美國現貨柴油價格年增 12%，其中 3 月的漲幅超過 35%。

That surge drove our internal fuel costs about $5 million above our expectations for Q1. Our exposure to the cost impacted is limited due to the hedges we proactively put in place for over 45% of our expected diesel requirements for 2026. Additionally, in certain markets, our pricing mechanisms allow for recovery of a portion of higher fuel-related costs over time through surcharges, which will step up in Q2 as a result of the incremental costs we have already absorbed. Based on what we have seen to date, we would expect to be largely insulated on an EBITDA basis over time from most of the effects of higher fuel costs between the benefit from any pickup in the E&P waste activity, the impact of hedges and the recovery of higher diesel costs through surcharges, albeit with some lag in timing. Looking next at trends for other commodities.

該波飆升使我們第一季的內部燃料成本較預期高出約 500 萬美元。由於我們已主動建立避險部位，涵蓋 2026 年預期柴油需求的 45% 以上，因此我們受成本影響的曝險有限。此外，在部分市場，我們的定價機制允許透過附加費在一段時間後回收部分較高的燃料相關成本；由於我們已吸收的增量成本，該附加費將在第二季上調。根據目前所見，我們預期隨時間推移，在 EBITDA 基礎上將可在很大程度上隔離較高燃料成本的大部分影響，原因包括 E&P 廢棄物活動若回升所帶來的效益、避險的影響，以及透過附加費回收較高柴油成本（儘管在時間上會有些滯後）。接著看其他大宗商品的趨勢。

Recycled commodity values stepped up sequentially in Q1 for the first time in seven quarters, led by improving values for fiber during the quarter. Although nominal, the increase is a positive indicator. And landfill gas sales also stepped up sequentially, in this case, due to increased volumes on stable values for renewable energy credits or RINs. Moving next to operating trends. Q1 marked our 14th consecutive quarter of improvement in employee retention and the achievement of another milestone as voluntary turnover dropped to below 10%.

回收大宗商品價格在第一季較前一季上升，為連續七季以來首次，主要由季度內纖維類價格改善所帶動。雖然增幅不大，但這是一個正向指標。掩埋場沼氣銷售也較前一季增加；此處的增加是因為在再生能源憑證（或 RINs）價格穩定的情況下，銷量提升所致。接著談營運趨勢。第一季是我們員工留任連續第 14 季改善，並達成另一個里程碑：自願離職率降至 10% 以下。

We can't overstate the value of human capital as a differentiator and continue to see the benefits of lower turnover throughout our operations from our record safety levels to increased employee engagement and ultimately, customer retention. Shifting to the subject of technology. Our continued investment and focus on AI and our overall digital platform are showing promising results within pricing effectiveness, customer engagement and asset optimization. Specifically, our AI-driven pricing tool has yielded approximately 20% improvement in customer retention and pricing effectiveness while maintaining our core pricing strength. We are encouraged by early results knowing our analytics and capabilities will only get better as our technology advances.

我們再怎麼強調人力資本作為差異化因素的價值都不為過；我們持續在整體營運中看到較低離職率所帶來的效益，從創紀錄的安全水準、到更高的員工投入度，最終反映在客戶留存上。接著談科技。我們持續投資並聚焦於 AI 與整體數位平台，已在定價效能、客戶互動與資產最佳化方面展現令人鼓舞的成果。具體而言，我們的 AI 驅動定價工具在維持核心定價強度的同時，使客戶留存與定價效能約提升 20%。我們對早期成果感到振奮，並了解隨著技術進步，我們的分析能力與各項能力只會持續提升。

Further, for the balance of '26 and into 2027, we are excited about our continued involvement with the field to expand our AI-powered tools, reinforcing our commitment to our decentralized-first model and value-based approach to the business. These current and future tools will continue to expand our customer engagement and routing productivity with early indications suggesting strong returns on investment. Moving next to M&A. We continue to anticipate another outsized year of activity based on a robust and building pipeline with high visibility on a handful of deals with aggregate annualized revenue of approximately $100 million expected to close by the end of Q2 or early Q3. We are on track for another above-average M&A year.

此外，在 2026 年剩餘期間並延伸至 2027 年，我們很期待持續與第一線團隊合作，擴大 AI 驅動工具的應用，進一步強化我們對「去中心化優先」模式與價值導向經營方式的承諾。這些現有與未來的工具將持續提升我們的客戶互動與路線生產力；初步跡象顯示投資報酬可觀。接著談併購（M&A）。基於強勁且持續累積的案源管線，以及對少數幾筆交易的高度能見度（合計年化營收約 1 億美元，預計於第二季末或第三季初完成交割），我們仍預期今年將是另一個活動量顯著偏高的一年。我們正朝著再度高於平均水準的併購年度邁進。

Most importantly, we remain disciplined in our approach to acquisitions and well positioned for implementing our growth strategy, while also increasing return of capital to shareholders. To that end, on a year-to-date outlays of approximately 365 million, we've repurchased about 1% of shares outstanding. And finally, an update on our management of the ongoing elevated temperature landfill or ETLF event at Chiquita Canyon, our closed landfill in Southern California. We continue to make progress on mitigating the reaction, which based on objective data collected to date is stable, controlled and decelerating. As noted previously, we have sought out the increased involvement and oversight of the US.

最重要的是，我們在併購策略上仍保持紀律，並已做好充分準備以執行我們的成長策略，同時也提高對股東的資本回饋。為此，截至目前我們已支出約3.65億美元，並回購了約1%的流通在外股份。最後，更新我們對南加州已封場的 Chiquita Canyon 掩埋場正在發生的持續高溫掩埋場（ETLF）事件之管理進展。我們持續在緩解該反應方面取得進展；根據迄今蒐集的客觀數據，該反應穩定、受控且正在減速。如先前所述，我們已尋求美國的加強參與與監督。

EPA in an effort to streamline the process. Over the past several weeks, the EPA has expanded its involvement at the facility, which we welcome. To date, the EPA has weighed in and provided direction on two critical issues, and we respect their expertise and experience, which have facilitated the development of plans to resolve these matters consistent with our expectations. We continue to work with the EPA on a long-term agreement, which should provide even greater clarity once consummated. There is no change in our 2026 outlook for Chiquita, which reflects free cash flow impacts of $100 million to $150 million.

EPA 以期簡化流程。在過去幾週，EPA 已擴大其在該設施的參與程度，我們對此表示歡迎。截至目前，EPA 已就兩項關鍵議題提出意見並提供指導；我們尊重其專業與經驗，這也促成了制定計畫，以符合我們預期的方式解決這些事項。我們持續與 EPA 就長期協議合作；一旦完成，應可提供更高程度的明確性。我們對 Chiquita 的 2026 年展望沒有變化，該展望反映自由現金流影響為1億至1.5億美元。

That said, we did adjust our accrual in Q1 to reflect the higher spending we saw in 2025, which was incorporated into our 2026 outlook. We look forward to being in a position to more formally reforecast the outlays for subsequent periods once we have a road map for moving forward, still anticipated this year. Additionally, we continue to expect free cash flow impacts in 2027 will decline as compared to 2026, as previously communicated and continue to step down in each year going forward.

儘管如此，我們確實在第一季調整了應計費用，以反映我們在 2025 年看到的較高支出，而該支出已納入我們的 2026 年展望。一旦我們取得後續推進的路線圖（仍預期在今年取得），我們期待能更正式地重新預測後續期間的支出。此外，我們仍預期 2027 年的自由現金流影響將較 2026 年下降；如先前所溝通，並將在往後每一年持續逐步下降。

And now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in-depth financial highlights of the first quarter. I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.

現在我想把電話交給 Mary Anne，請她更深入地回顧第一季的財務重點。之後我會在進入問答前做總結。

Thank you, Ron. In the first quarter, revenue of $2.371 billion exceeded our expectations and was up $143 million or 6.4% year-over-year. Contributions from acquisitions net of divestitures totaled $55 million in the quarter. Organic growth in solid waste collection transfer and disposal of 3.1% was led by 6% core price, which ranged from about 4% in our mostly exclusive market Western region to over 7% in our competitive markets. Total price of 5.9% included a reduction of about 10 basis points in fuel and material surcharges given the lag in recovery of higher costs.

謝謝你，Ron。第一季營收為23.71億美元，超出我們的預期，年增1.43億美元或6.4%。本季併購貢獻扣除處分影響後合計為5,500萬美元。固體廢棄物的收運、轉運與處置之有機成長為3.1%，主要由6%的核心價格帶動；核心價格在我們以獨家為主的西部區域約為4%，在競爭市場則超過7%。總價格為5.9%，其中包含燃料與材料附加費約10個基點的下降，原因是較高成本的回收存在時間落後。

With over 75% of our price increases already in place or contractually provided for, we have high visibility for full year 2026 core pricing at the high end of the range we provided or about 5.5%. And given the recent step-up in diesel costs, we would expect surcharges to increase accordingly, albeit with a lag, driven not only by the mechanics of the surcharges, but also due to advanced monthly or quarterly billing for some of our customers.

由於我們超過75%的漲價已到位或已由合約條款約定，我們對 2026 全年核心定價具有高度可視性，將落在我們所提供區間的高端，約為5.5%。此外，鑑於近期柴油成本上升，我們預期附加費將相應提高，但會有時間落後；這不僅源於附加費機制本身，也因為部分客戶採用預先按月或按季開立帳單。

As Ron noted, we had hedges in place for almost half of our diesel requirements and utilized surcharges in a portion of our markets. Yield of 4.7% reflects ongoing reductions in customer churn and implies solid waste volumes down about 1.5%, including up to about 0.5 point attributable to outsized weather events that contributed to Q1 volume losses to varying degrees across all of our regions, except the Western region, where volumes were up about 1.5%. Looking at year-over-year results in the first quarter on a same-store basis.

如 Ron 所提，我們針對近一半的柴油需求已建立避險，並在部分市場採用附加費。4.7%的收益率反映客戶流失率持續下降，並意味固體廢棄物量約下降1.5%；其中最多約0.5個百分點可歸因於異常天候事件，該等事件在第一季對各區域的量造成不同程度的損失，唯獨西部區域例外，其量約成長1.5%。從第一季同店的年對年結果來看。

Roll-off pulls were down 1% on rates per pull up 3%. And with the exception of our Western region, pulls were down in all regions. That said, we are encouraged by improving roll-off trends, especially given weather impacts. As compared to Q4 year-over-year results, pulls were less negative by almost 0.5 point and year-over-year rates per pull stepped up by 120 basis points. Landfill trends, while still mixed, are also encouraging.

開放式貨櫃（roll-off）拉運次數下降1%，但每次拉運費率上升3%。除西部區域外，各區域的拉運次數皆下降。儘管如此，考量天候影響，我們對 roll-off 趨勢改善感到鼓舞。相較於第四季的年對年結果，拉運次數的降幅收斂近0.5個百分點，而每次拉運的年對年費率提高了120個基點。掩埋場趨勢雖仍呈現分歧，但同樣令人鼓舞。

Total tons were up 4% on MSW up 5% and special waste up 8%, partially offset by ongoing weakness in C&D down 5%. Increases in MSW tons were spread across our Western Canadian and Central regions, while special waste activity was broad-based, driving increases in five of six of our geographic regions. Most noteworthy, though, was a 20% increase in special waste activity in our Central region, where the pickup in activity we noted in recent quarters had been lagging other markets. And following up on Ron's comments about improving commodity-driven activity. Recycled commodity revenues improved during Q1, led by an increase in old corrugated cardboard or OCC, which averaged $89 per ton in Q1 and exited the quarter in line with the 2025 full year average price of $94 per ton.

總噸數成長4%，其中一般市政固體廢棄物（MSW）成長5%、特殊廢棄物成長8%，部分被營建拆除廢棄物（C&D）持續疲弱、下降5%所抵銷。MSW 噸數的增加分布於我們的西加拿大與中部區域；特殊廢棄物活動則呈廣泛成長，帶動六個地理區域中的五個區域增加。其中最值得注意的是中部區域特殊廢棄物活動增加20%；我們在近幾季提到的活動回升在該區域先前落後於其他市場。另外，延續 Ron 對商品驅動活動改善的評論。第一季回收商品收入改善，主要由舊瓦楞紙箱（OCC）價格上升帶動；第一季平均為每噸89美元，季末價格已回到與 2025 全年平均價每噸94美元一致的水準。

Additionally, our landfill gas sales increased sequentially as a result of contributions from one of our new RNG facilities currently in startup and also from higher natural gas prices, which spiked in Q1, similar to last year. Values for renewable energy credits, or RINs, remained stable at about $2.40 following the EPA's updates for renewable volume obligations. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1, as reconciled in our earnings release, was $769.5 million, up 8% year-over-year.

此外，我們的掩埋氣體銷售較前一季增加，原因包括我們其中一座新再生天然氣（RNG）設施目前正處於啟動階段所帶來的貢獻，以及天然氣價格在第一季飆升（與去年類似）。在 EPA 更新再生燃料用量義務（renewable volume obligations）後，再生能源憑證（RINs）的價值維持穩定，約為2.40美元。第一季調整後 EBITDA（如我們在財報新聞稿中調節）為7.695億美元，年增8%。

At 32.5% of revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded our expectations and was up 50 basis points year-over-year, driven by 90 basis points underlying margin expansion offset by about 40 basis point drag from commodities. Outsized solid waste margin expansion reflected improvement in several cost items, reflecting favorable price/cost spread dynamics led by strong pricing retention and magnified by benefits from employee retention and safety.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為營收的32.5%，高於我們的預期，年對年提升50個基點；其中90個基點來自基礎利潤率擴張，但約40個基點受到商品業務拖累所抵銷。固體廢棄物利潤率的顯著擴張反映多項成本項目改善，呈現有利的價格/成本擴張動能，主要由強勁的定價留存所帶動，並因員工留任與安全帶來的效益而放大。

These benefits were partially offset by higher fuel and related costs. And finally, adjusted free cash flow of $246 million was in line with our expectations and consistent with our full year outlook as provided in February of $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion. We were pleased to see Q1 CapEx outlays outpaced last year's slow start, largely as a result of more expeditious deliveries of fleet and equipment and faster progress on projects, including our RNG facilities in development. Moving next to our balance sheet. We opportunistically accessed the public debt market with a $600 million note offering in early March to further diversify funding sources.

上述效益部分被較高的燃料及相關成本所抵銷。最後，調整後自由現金流為2.46億美元，符合我們的預期，並與我們在2月提供的全年展望（14億至14.5億美元）一致。我們樂見第一季資本支出（CapEx）支出進度快於去年年初的緩慢開局，主要因車隊與設備交付更為迅速，以及專案推進更快，包括我們正在開發中的 RNG 設施。接著看我們的資產負債表。我們在3月初把握時機進入公開債券市場，發行6億美元票據，以進一步分散資金來源。

Following that highly successful offering and activities during the quarter, including share repurchases, as noted by Ron, our debt outstanding of about $9.1 billion had a tenure of over eight years at an average interest rate of about 4%, with about 80% of our debt fixed. With liquidity of approximately $1 billion and quarter end net debt-to-EBITDA leverage of about 2.75 times, we retain flexibility for acquisitions as well as returning capital to shareholders through additional repurchases and dividends.

在該次非常成功的發行以及本季各項活動（包括 Ron 提到的股票回購）之後，我們約91億美元的未償債務平均年期超過八年，平均利率約4%，其中約80%為固定利率。在約10億美元的流動性，以及季末淨負債對 EBITDA 槓桿約2.75倍的情況下，我們仍保有進行併購的彈性，也能透過進一步回購與股利向股東返還資本。

And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.

現在在進入問答前，讓我把電話交回 Ron，請他做最後的結語。

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. As we've said, 2026 is off to a great start, and there are a number of factors working in our favor for the rest of the year. The strength of our results is a reflection of the projectability and consistency that sets us apart regardless of the macroeconomic environment. Our industry-leading results are also a reminder of the importance we place on asset positioning and market selection, both of which are fundamental to our strategy and which we believe drive differentiation.

好的。謝謝你，Mary Anne。如同我們所說，2026 年開局非常強勁，而且今年剩餘時間有多項因素正朝對我們有利的方向發展。我們成果的強勁，反映出不論宏觀經濟環境如何，我們都能展現出使我們脫穎而出的可預測性與一致性。我們業界領先的表現也再次提醒大家，我們非常重視資產配置與市場選擇，這兩者都是我們策略的基石，我們相信也能帶來差異化。

Our results highlight the importance of discipline around capital allocation as well as the value of human capital and culture in driving results. These are the tenets that have guided Waste Connections' approach since our founding over 28 years ago and which remain fundamental as we approach $10 billion in revenue very soon. To that end, we're most grateful for the commitment of our 25,000-plus employees who live our values every day, putting safety first and making Waste Connections such a great place to work. We appreciate your time today. I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions.

我們的成果凸顯了資本配置紀律的重要性，以及人力資本與企業文化在推動績效上的價值。這些原則自 Waste Connections 於 28 年前成立以來一直指引著我們的做法，並且在我們即將很快達到 100 億美元營收之際，仍然是根本。為此，我們特別感謝超過 25,000 名員工的投入與承諾，他們每天實踐我們的價值觀，把安全放在第一位，讓 Waste Connections 成為一個很棒的工作場所。感謝各位今天撥冗參與。接下來我將把電話交給接線員，開放線路讓各位提問。

Operator?

接線員？

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Tyler Brown, Raymond James.

Tyler Brown，Raymond James。

Mary Anne, so I appreciate some of the comments on fuel, but I just want to make sure that I've got it. So sorry for this, it's kind of a multipart question. But number one, I just want to make sure that it's clear that kind of over the course of the year, you would expect fuel to be effectively a push from an EBITDA dollar perspective. But then two, if we assume where fuel is and it stays where it is, we clearly need to contemplate higher surcharges, and that will be dilutive on margins. So I assume that needs to be considered.

Mary Anne，我很感謝你對燃料的一些評論，但我只是想確認我理解正確。先說聲抱歉，這有點像多段式問題。第一，我只是想確認很清楚的是，在一整年期間，從 EBITDA 金額的角度來看，你們預期燃料基本上會是相互抵銷、影響不大。第二，如果我們假設燃料維持在目前水準且不變，我們顯然需要考量更高的附加費，而這會稀釋利潤率。所以我想這需要納入考量。

Can you maybe size some of the dilution there? And then three, for my garbage bill, I believe I paid two months in advance. So we also need to consider that there is a lag on fuel recovery. So can you help us think about fuel dilution specifically in Q2? So I know there's a lot there. I'm sorry about that, but just some more color on fuel.

你能否大概量化一下這個稀釋幅度？第三，就我自己的垃圾帳單而言，我記得我是預付兩個月。所以我們也需要考量燃料回收存在時間落後。你能幫我們思考一下，燃料稀釋在第二季（Q2）會是什麼樣子嗎？我知道問題很多。很抱歉，但想請你再多補充一些燃料方面的細節。

Sure. Happy to address that. And there are a lot of moving parts. And so here's how I'd approach it. First of all, you have fuel impacts that are direct and indirect. And what we know is that the direct impacts are mitigated or impacted by, first of all, the hedges we have in place. So we've got hedged almost 50% of our fuel requirements and then we get fuel surcharges in certain of our markets. And as you said and as we said in the script, largely in terms of the dollar amounts of the impact from fuel, we can recover that over time through fuel surcharges. You used the term during the, year. I'd just remind that since the spike started in March, it goes into next year in terms of the recovery.

當然。很樂意說明。而且這裡面有很多變動因素。我會這樣看待。首先，燃料影響分為直接與間接。我們知道直接影響會被（或受）幾個因素緩解或左右：第一是我們已建立的避險部位。我們已對接近 50% 的燃料需求做了避險，另外在部分市場我們也會收取燃料附加費。如你所說、也如我們在講稿中提到的，就燃料影響的金額而言，我們大致能透過燃料附加費在一段時間後回收。你用的是「在一年期間」這個說法。我想提醒的是，自從 3 月出現飆升後，回收會延伸到明年。

To your point, there is a lag. The lag is driven by -- it's twofold. One is the mechanism specified by whatever the -- what limits it provides for the surcharge. And then secondly, as you also pointed out, we advance bill customers on a quarterly or monthly basis. And so you can appreciate that when fuel ran in March, customers who we had billed in January, of course, we couldn't have recovered that.

如你所說，確實存在時間落後。這個落後主要由兩個因素造成。第一是附加費機制本身的規定——也就是它所提供的限制條件。第二，如你也指出的，我們按季或按月向客戶預先開立帳單。因此你可以理解，當燃料在 3 月上漲時，對於我們在 1 月就已開帳的客戶，當然不可能把那部分回收進來。

We hadn't anticipated it, so it could take, by example, up until May to get that. So then that brings you to the question of how quickly we recover and to think about it quarter-by-quarter, Q2 would be the toughest, right, because it's the slowest recovery because we're late to the game. By Q3, you're more at that 100% level, and then that continues through the year. So of course, again, as you pointed out, there's a margin impact there when you recover the dollars. And so you get the revenue and EBITDA, but the margin changes.

我們當時並未預期，因此舉例來說，可能要到 5 月才能回收。這就帶出回收速度的問題；若按季度來看，Q2 會是最艱難的，對吧？因為我們起步較晚，回收最慢。到 Q3，你會更接近 100% 的回收水準，之後全年也會持續如此。所以當然，如你所指出的，當你回收這些金額時，利潤率會受到影響。也就是你會得到營收與 EBITDA，但利潤率會改變。

And obviously, that's a function of how big the number is. Illustratively, if we've got about 50 million gallons that aren't hedged, you then rate that over the course of three quarters of the year, you could see how with a couple of dollars higher fuel, this could be as much as $60 million or $70 million in incremental fuel surcharges that would run through the P&L, and that would create that margin differential. So then I think about the other bucket, which is indirect impacts. So moving to indirect impacts, it then says there's an opportunity to have incremental benefits associated with the higher fuel to the extent that there is an increase, for instance, in E&P waste activity. And that, again, we would expect to take longer.

而這顯然取決於金額有多大。舉例來說，如果我們大約有 5,000 萬加侖未避險，然後把它分攤在一年中的三個季度，你就能理解，若燃料每加侖上升幾美元，損益表上可能會出現多達 6,000 萬到 7,000 萬美元的額外燃料附加費流入，並造成那樣的利潤率差異。接著我會看另一個類別，也就是間接影響。談到間接影響，若燃料走高在某種程度上帶動例如 E&P（勘探與生產）廢棄物活動增加，則可能帶來額外的正面效益。而這同樣預期需要更長時間才會顯現。

We haven't seen it yet as strong as our E&P results were in Q1 that really didn't reflect the pickup in drilling activity. We did see an improvement in commodities. You've already seen a little bit of an offset of those margin drags. And then you would look to continue to see that as we move through the year.

我們目前還沒有看到；即便我們在 Q1 的 E&P 結果很強，但那其實並未反映鑽井活動的回升。我們確實看到大宗商品有所改善。你已經看到部分抵銷了那些利潤率拖累。而且隨著我們走過今年，你也會期待持續看到這種情況。

Okay. Perfect. And then I know I'm sometimes a bit spacey, but maybe I missed it, but did you give any color specifically on Q2 around revenue or EBITDA? And is that a change? Should we think about not getting that forward quarter look? Or how should we think about that?

好的。完美。另外我有時候會有點恍神，可能漏聽了：你們有沒有特別針對 Q2 的營收或 EBITDA 提供一些說明？這有變嗎？我們是否應該預期不再提供下一季的展望？或者我們應該怎麼看待？

No. Actually, it's consistent with the way we've been doing it really since last year. And we certainly give guardrails around the movement throughout the year, and I think we did that in Q1 when people laid out their framework for the year. And so I now think about directionally to provide what's changed since our guidance in February.

沒有。其實這跟我們自去年以來的做法一致。我們當然會就全年走勢提供一些指引範圍（guardrails），我想我們在 Q1、當大家建立全年模型架構時也有這麼做。所以我現在會從方向性角度，說明自我們 2 月給出指引以來，有哪些變化。

And of course, as I mentioned, when I look overall at the commodity impact, that's probably improved just based on where the pricing has gone to date, it's probably a 10 basis point benefit versus where we expected things to be in February, and you'd start seeing that in Q2 to the extent it doesn't change from here. And we just talked about the incremental margin headwinds associated with fuel, which would be most felt in Q2 versus the other quarters.

當然，如我提到的，整體來看大宗商品的影響，可能因為迄今價格走勢而有所改善；相較於我們 2 月的預期，可能帶來約 10 個基點的正面效益，而只要從現在起不再變動，你會在 Q2 開始看到。而我們剛才也談到燃料帶來的額外利潤率逆風，這在 Q2 的感受會比其他季度更明顯。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

Konark Gupta，Scotiabank。

The first one, Mary Anne, the underlying margins in Q1, if you strip out the fuel impact, I think they were up 110 basis points, excluding commodities as well. I think in February, you guys were looking at 50 to 70 basis points for the full year. I'm just trying to understand like with the pricing moving to the high end of the range, do you think the underlying margin expansion has potential upside to the 50 to 70 bps you said for the full year?

第一個問題，Mary Anne，Q1 的基礎利潤率，如果把燃料影響剔除，我認為上升了 110 個基點，也同樣排除了大宗商品的影響。我記得你們在 2 月時，對全年是看 50 到 70 個基點。我想了解的是，隨著定價走向區間高端，你覺得基礎利潤率擴張是否有機會高於你們所說的全年 50 到 70 個基點？

Obviously, we're excluding fuel in this conversation. But yes, with respect to the fact that we just said we had a nice strong start to the year, that could be arguably another indication of maybe a nice tailwind as we move through the year. We'd always be cautious because you have to have a lot of things go right, and we described all the things that went right in Q1 and acknowledging that those benefits we've seen, for instance, from the human capital-driven benefits as we described with respect to retention and the improvement we've seen there, we've gotten most of those benefits. So I wouldn't think that they continue at the same extent as we move through the year. So you might have a little better improvement in Q1 versus the other quarters and the underlying margin expansion.

顯然，在這段討論中我們把燃料排除在外。但沒錯，就我們剛才提到今年開局相當強勁而言，這或許也可被視為我們在今年接下來推進時可能會有不錯順風的另一個跡象。不過我們一向會保持謹慎，因為你必須讓很多事情都進展順利；我們也描述了第一季有哪些事情進展順利，同時也承認我們已經取得了大部分我們所看到的效益，例如我們先前提到的人力資本驅動效益，包含留任以及我們在這方面看到的改善。因此我不會認為這些效益在今年接下來會以同樣的幅度持續。所以你可能會看到第一季的改善幅度相對其他季度更好一些，以及潛在的利潤率擴張。

Okay. That makes sense. And on the M&A side, I think, Ron, you were mentioning about another $100 million acquisition worth in the coming few months. I just wanted to understand the nature of these transactions. What kind of areas are you targeting? And what kind of assets are these mostly post collection or collection?

好的。這很合理。另外在併購（M&A）方面，我想 Ron 你提到未來幾個月還會有約 1 億美元的收購規模。我只是想了解這些交易的性質。你們鎖定哪些領域？這些資產主要是收運後端（post collection）還是收運（collection）？

Yes, sure. Well, first, and I was a little -- you broke up just a little, but didn't -- we didn't mean to imply that there was a $100 million transaction. There's a series of transactions that equate to $100 million or more, just to clarify. These are all consistent with our traditional, what I'd call singles and doubles, core solid waste transactions both franchise and competitive, both -- we have some integrated transactions in that, meaning collection through disposal and a few smaller E&P tuck-in transactions as well. So everything that's consistent with our existing platform.

是的，當然。首先，我剛剛有點——你的訊號稍微斷了一下，但我們並不是要暗示有一筆 1 億美元的單一交易。澄清一下，是一系列交易合計達到 1 億美元或以上。這些都符合我們傳統、我稱之為「一壘安打與二壘安打」（singles and doubles）的核心固體廢棄物交易，涵蓋特許經營與競爭性業務；另外——其中也有一些整合型交易，也就是從收運到最終處置的一條龍，並且也有幾筆較小的 E&P 補強型（tuck-in）交易。所以一切都與我們既有的平台一致。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

Toni Kaplan，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to talk about volume. I think last quarter, you had talked about for the year an expectation of down 50 to flattish. This quarter, we did see some nice improvement versus last year, and it was impacted by weather, so even better than the 150. And so my question is, does anything need to happen specifically to get to -- are you still expecting a flat to down 50 for volume for the year? And does anything sort of special need to happen? Or are you running at that sort of pace to get to that level and how much visibility you have in that?

我想談談量（volume）。我記得上季你們談到全年預期是下滑 50 個基點到持平。這一季我們確實看到相較去年有不錯的改善，而且受到天氣影響，所以甚至比 150 個基點還要好。所以我的問題是，要達到——你們是否仍預期全年量會持平到下滑 50 個基點？是否需要發生什麼特別的事情？或者你們目前的運行節奏就能達到那個水準？以及你們對此有多高的能見度？

Sure. So I guess a couple of observations. We did see improvement in underlying volumes, as you point out, in Q1, and we're still able to deliver the volumes in line with our expectations in spite of, call it, 25 to 50 basis points of weather impact. Some of that, we'd attribute to that improvement in special waste, which you never -- you try to hesitate to generalize from that because it can be lumpy, and we've had multiple quarters of improvement in special waste. So I'd be cautiously optimistic there.

當然。我想有幾點觀察。如你所指出，我們在第一季確實看到基礎量（underlying volumes）改善；而且儘管有約 25 到 50 個基點的天氣影響，我們仍能交出符合預期的量。其中一部分我們會歸因於特殊廢棄物（special waste）的改善；但你通常會避免對此過度概括，因為它可能會有波動性（lumpy），而我們已經連續好幾季看到特殊廢棄物改善。所以我會審慎樂觀。

And then, Toni, the final piece of the puzzle is really that construction-driven activity, which we haven't seen accelerate yet. And so there was some improvement in the underlying dynamics factored into our expectations for the full year that got you closer to that flat or even positive as you exit the year to deliver those numbers as you described. But the good news is that we are seeing that reduction in the shedding or lost contracts. And so that is directionally getting us in the right -- we're moving in the right direction.

然後 Toni，最後一塊拼圖其實是由建築活動帶動的需求，而我們還沒有看到它加速。因此，我們對全年預期中已納入一些基礎動能的改善，讓你在年底退出時更接近持平甚至轉正，以交出你所描述的那些數字。但好消息是，我們確實看到流失（shedding）或失去合約的情況在減少。所以方向上正在把我們帶到正確的——我們正朝正確方向前進。

The last thing I'd comment on that, Toni, is -- and I think we commented on this in our remarks was that we -- with our AI pricing tool, we've seen perhaps up to almost a 20% improvement in retention/churn on the same type of price, which led us to a little bit higher performance on price than our 5% to 5.5% guidance. And so that has a component to volume as well.

最後我想補充的是，Toni——我想我們在發言中也提到——透過我們的 AI 定價工具，我們在相同類型的價格下，留任/流失（retention/churn）可能看到接近 20% 的改善，這也讓我們的價格表現略高於我們 5% 到 5.5% 的指引。而這也會對量帶來一定的影響。

Terrific. And then I wanted to ask about E&P, strong in the quarter, I think up sort of modestly organically, but a nice quarter there. And also, you had sort of mentioned if the fuel prices continue to be high, that could be even more of a tailwind for you. Just wanted to understand, has your pipeline changed? Has it gotten better? Or is this sort of you need a little bit more time for prices to be at a higher level in order to see any sort of impact to the pipeline and future deals?

太好了。接著我想問 E&P，本季表現強勁，我想有機成長小幅上升，但整體是一個不錯的季度。另外你們也提到，如果燃料價格持續維持高檔，對你們可能會形成更大的順風。我想了解的是，你們的案源管線（pipeline）有改變嗎？有變得更好嗎？還是說需要燃料價格在較高水準維持更久，才會對管線與未來交易看到任何影響？

Yes. I mean, as you know, Toni, the crude ran with the Iran crisis so precipitously within a matter of days to let alone a week. We have not yet seen any increase in rig count in the US, which is what would be needed to drive incremental drilling activity to affect our volumes in the US. Now if you have a sustained higher price in crude, you will absolutely see -- there is a mobilization period that takes place that takes time and it takes several months. And producers aren't just going to react on a four to six week price increase in crude.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知，Toni，原油因伊朗危機在短短幾天、甚至不到一週內就急遽上漲。我們目前還沒有看到美國鑽機數（rig count）增加，而這是推動額外鑽探活動、進而影響我們在美國量所需要的條件。如果原油價格能在較高水準持續，你絕對會看到——會有一段動員期（mobilization period），這需要時間，通常要好幾個月。而生產商不會只因為原油價格上漲四到六週就立刻反應。

But if you have a sustained increase in crude price, they will react, and then you'll see a mobilization of rigs, and we will see greater drilling activity and then that will have an impact. And then, of course, in our Canadian E&P business, that is 80% to 85% production linked. And we have seen some nominal increase in their production because of what's going on with the price of crude in Canada as well, as well as their ability to export or their desire to. So certainly, if this is sustained, we will see it. But I'd say it's too early to say that producers are reacting to a four to six week crisis and not knowing if that's -- how long that is going to go on.

但如果原油價格持續上升，他們就會反應，接著你會看到鑽機動員，我們也會看到更多鑽探活動，然後那就會產生影響。當然，在我們加拿大的 E&P 業務中，有 80% 到 85% 是與產量連動。而我們確實看到他們的產量有些微增加，原因是加拿大原油價格的變化，以及他們出口能力或出口意願的提升。所以如果這樣的情況能持續，我們肯定會看到影響。但我會說現在還太早，還不能說生產商已經在對一場為期四到六週的危機做出反應，且也不確定——這會持續多久。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

Yes. I wanted to ask about yield. And you've been -- we've been talking about fuel surcharges, but I'm curious if there is sort of this potential for underlying benefit that we could see on yield alone as you look at your contracts where you may not have fuel surcharges, for example. Just curious how we should think about yield going forward from here and if there's room for potential upside.

是的。我想問關於收益率（yield）。我們一直在談燃料附加費（fuel surcharges），但我好奇的是，當你們看那些例如沒有燃料附加費的合約時，是否可能僅從收益率本身看到一些潛在的基礎性利多？想請教我們應該如何看待未來的收益率走勢，以及是否有潛在上行空間。

Sure. So most of our price increases, as we described, are in place or known. And so when I think about the benefit in yield, that could be in '27 more so than in '26. That doesn't mean that there haven't been situations in the past when there's been outsized cost pressures or inflation later in the year, and we've revisited our price increases. But at this time, we think in terms of the recovery through the fuel surcharges that we know we're entitled to and then incremental pricing benefits lagging and into next year.

當然。如我們所說，我們大部分的漲價都已到位或已知。因此當我思考收益率的效益時，可能在 2027 年會比 2026 年更明顯。但這不代表過去沒有出現過某些情況：例如在年內後段出現超預期的成本壓力或通膨，我們會重新檢視我們的漲價。但就目前而言，我們的看法是：先是透過我們已知有權取得的燃料附加費來回收，然後額外的定價效益會有落後效應，並延伸到明年。

Okay. Understood. And some of the benefits that you've been talking about as it relates to retention, just because this is a relatively newer metric you've historically given us core price. Just help us think through like does that show up more now in volume or in yield? And sort of how should we think about that? Does yield still sort of decelerate through the course of the year mechanically? Or should we see, again, like a slight improvement as maybe you lean into some of your technology initiatives a little bit more?

好的。了解。另外，關於你一直在談的、與留存相關的一些效益，因為這是一個相對較新的指標，你們過去歷來提供給我們的是核心價格。請幫我們釐清一下：這現在更多會反映在量（volume）上，還是反映在收益率（yield）上？以及我們應該如何看待這件事？收益率是否仍會在一年當中因機制性因素而逐步放緩？或者我們是否應該看到，例如，隨著你們更深入推進一些科技計畫，收益率會略有改善？

So yield, you should expect yields to follow the similar cadence to what price did because really, what we're talking about is always the dollars associated with the price increases that we've retained and the denominator gets bigger, right? So most of the price increases are done early in the year. So that's a consistent numerator on a denominator that's getting bigger. What's changed in the way we're communicating it is that arguably before our volume was reflecting any difference in mix and the price volume trade-off, the customer churn that was inherent in delivering the price increase. And so now we've just really shifted it to the yields bucket.

關於收益率，你應該預期它會遵循與價格相似的節奏，因為我們談的其實一直都是：我們保留下來的漲價所對應的金額（美元），而分母會變大，對吧？因此，大多數的漲價都在年初完成。所以分子相對固定，但分母在變大。我們在溝通方式上的改變在於：可以說，以前我們的量（volume）會反映出組合（mix）的差異，以及價格與量之間的取捨、也就是在推動漲價時內含的客戶流失（churn）。而現在我們只是把它真正地轉移到收益率（yields）這個項目裡。

So it's a function of those two pieces. So of course, as customer churn improves, the yield should reflect some of that. So you will see a little bit, but I would still expect the number, the absolute value to decrease over the course of the year.

所以這是那兩個部分共同作用的結果。當然，隨著客戶流失改善，收益率也應該會反映其中一部分。所以你會看到一點點影響，但我仍然預期這個數字的絕對值會在一年當中逐步下降。

Adam Bubes, Goldman Sachs.

Adam Bubes，高盛。

I have a follow-up on E&P. I think on the last call, you talked about expectations for E&P waste revenues flattish for the full year. And in the quarter, I think it was up over 20%. It sounds like that was largely acquisition contribution, but are you seeing outperformance on the acquired revenues? And is the right way to still think about E&P revenues for the full year as flattish because the run rate looks much better right now?

我有一個關於 E&P 的追問。我記得在上一通電話會議上，你們談到對全年 E&P 廢棄物收入的預期大致持平。但在本季，我想是成長了超過 20%。聽起來這主要是併購貢獻，但你們是否看到被併購收入的表現優於預期？而對於全年而言，現在的運行率（run rate）看起來好很多，我們是否仍應把 E&P 全年收入視為大致持平才是正確的看法？

Sure. So I think the commentary about E&P expectations is that really not much margin contribution was expected. And on an organic growth basis, it was expected to be pretty minimal. And so this is really consistent with what we expected given the fact that we had rollover contribution from acquisitions, but also have the benefit of projects we've done, including at bolt-on acquisitions recently, but also, for instance, reopening one of the facilities we've talked about reopenings. That's why we tried to communicate like-for-like basis to normalize for those benefits.

當然。所以我認為，關於 E&P 預期的評論是：基本上原本預期不會有太多的利潤率貢獻。而以有機成長（organic growth）來看，原本也預期會相當有限。因此，這與我們的預期一致，因為我們確實有來自併購的續延（rollover）貢獻，同時也受惠於我們已完成的專案，包括近期在補強型併購（bolt-on acquisitions）上的專案；另外，例如，我們也重新開放了其中一座設施——我們之前談過一些重新開放的案例。這就是為什麼我們嘗試以同店（like-for-like）的基礎來溝通，以便將這些效益正常化。

So I'd say, overall, I still think the margin impact, again, unless we -- or until we get that pickup that Ron was just talking about in terms of drilling activity where it could be more meaningful, I think that would be pretty limited. But yes, the dollar amount would go up because of those incremental projects on the rollover.

所以我會說，整體而言，我仍認為利潤率的影響——同樣地，除非我們——或直到我們看到 Ron 剛才提到的、鑽井活動在某個程度上的回升，讓它變得更有意義——我認為那會相當有限。但沒錯，因為這些續延上的增量專案，金額（dollar amount）會上升。

Got it. And then I think you're targeting seven AI initiatives through 2027. It sounds like some of those are already having a real impact. I understand you're going to lap some of the strong margin tailwinds from voluntary turnover, but between continued price cost, the AI initiatives, landfill gas ramping, just at a high level, how are you thinking about potential for continuation of outsized underlying margin expansion beyond 2026?

了解。另外，我想你們的目標是在 2027 年前推進七項 AI 計畫。聽起來其中一些已經產生實質影響。我理解你們之後會遇到自願離職率（voluntary turnover）帶來的強勁利潤率順風的比較基期（lap），但在持續的價差（price-cost）、AI 計畫、掩埋場氣體（landfill gas）放量等因素之間，從較高層次來看，你們如何看待在 2026 年之後仍能延續超常的基礎利潤率擴張的可能性？

Yes, Adam, I mean, you're correct. We've targeted seven initial AI initiatives between 2025 and '27. We implemented three of those in 2025. We're implementing two in '26 and two more in '27. We are spending roughly $25 million to $30 million a year right now in each year on those initiatives.

是的，Adam，你說得沒錯。我們在 2025 到 2027 年之間鎖定了七項初始 AI 計畫。我們在 2025 年已經導入其中三項。我們會在 2026 年導入兩項，並在 2027 年再導入另外兩項。目前在這些計畫上，我們每年大約投入 2,500 萬到 3,000 萬美元。

If you put them all together, the returns have been quite staggering, to be honest. Most of them much quicker than a one year payback. As we roll out our routing and other broader digital tools, it really suggests that the returns will meet or exceed the pricing tool return. I know others in our space have talked about fairly significant margin contribution, and we have no reason to believe it looks any different. We haven't laid out a formal number.

坦白說，如果把它們全部加總起來，回報相當驚人。其中大多數的回收期遠快於一年。隨著我們推動路線規劃（routing）以及其他更廣泛的數位工具，這確實顯示其回報將達到或超過定價工具的回報。我知道我們產業中的其他公司也談到相當顯著的利潤率貢獻，而我們沒有理由相信我們會有任何不同。我們尚未提出正式的數字。

But look, we believe as we come out of '27 and head into '28, it is reasonable that through all seven of those initiatives to expect somewhere approaching about 100 basis points of margin appreciation as we head into '28. So this doesn't just come linearly. Obviously, you load the costs up initially in terms of the capital and the infrastructure. We're in that phase and still delivering what we're delivering and then you see those improvements as things get fully implemented in the field and deployed, which takes time. It takes time to reroute 570 locations with 15,000 trucks.

但你看，我們相信當我們走出 2027 年、邁向 2028 年時，合理的預期是：透過這七項計畫，利潤率提升可望接近約 100 個基點，進入 2028 年。所以這並不是線性發生的。很明顯地，一開始你會先把成本前置，包含資本與基礎設施。我們正處於那個階段，但仍交出我們目前的成果；接著當這些工具在前線全面落地與部署後，你就會看到改善，而這需要時間。要為 570 個據點、15,000 輛卡車重新規劃路線，是需要時間的。

That's going to take all the way through the majority of '27 as an example. So we feel extremely confident and are very excited about what we're seeing from AI. It has outpaced our expectations in virtually every manner, but it is a complex implementation. But those seven initiatives are all on pace. If anything, we think we're a little bit ahead. But I think that 100 basis points is a fair expectation as we come through getting all seven implemented.

以此為例，這將一路持續到 2027 年的大部分時間。所以我們對 AI 所看到的成果非常有信心，也非常興奮。它幾乎在各方面都超出我們的預期，但這是一個複雜的導入。不過這七項計畫都按進度推進。如果有什麼不同，我們認為我們還稍微超前。但我認為，當七項都完成導入時，100 個基點是一個合理的預期。

Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

Bryan Burgmeier，花旗。

Maybe just following up on E&P. Just curious if you think the kind of 4% growth rate that you flagged in 1Q is an appropriate number for 2Q or 3Q. I'm not sure if maybe that 1% number only captured one month of improvement, so maybe 2Q could be even better. Also, I don't want to kind of get ahead of ourselves. So any detail on that would be great.

我想再追問一下 E&P。只是好奇，你是否認為你們在第一季提到的約 4% 成長率，對第二季或第三季來說也是合適的數字。我不確定那個 1% 的數字是否只涵蓋了一個月的改善，所以第二季可能會更好。另外，我也不想太早下結論。所以如果能提供一些細節會很棒。

Well, I think the key thing is that we haven't seen a pickup in the drilling activity, frankly. So really, that would be the determinant. So I would say watch the rig count, and that will be the leading indicator that, that could improve. I wouldn't encourage you to think that there's been a recent run-up and that you should then increase that for a full quarter. As we've said, we really haven't seen it yet. Underlying activity is up nominally is the way we described it. And so I'd say it'd be a little premature to go that far.

嗯，我認為關鍵在於：坦白說，我們還沒有看到鑽井活動回升。所以那才會是決定因素。因此我會說，請關注鑽機數（rig count），那將是改善的領先指標。我不會鼓勵你認為最近出現了一波上升，然後就把它放大到整個季度。如同我們所說，我們確實還沒有看到。我們的描述是，基礎活動僅是名目上小幅上升。所以我會說，現在就推到那一步還有點太早。

Okay. That makes sense. And last question, and I can turn it over. I think we're targeting like $30 million of EBITDA from natural gas this year. I guess, A, is that still accurate? And then, B, did any of that sort of come online in 1Q? Or do we think about that being mostly kind of back half weighted?

好的。這很合理。最後一個問題，我問完就交給其他人。我想我們今年的目標是天然氣帶來約 3,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。我想問，A，這個目標仍然正確嗎？以及 B，第一季是否已有任何部分開始貢獻？或者我們應該把它視為主要集中在下半年？

Yes. So I think you're referring to the RNG or landfill gas sales where nat gas is a tiny piece of it, and we talked about that spiking in Q1 as it did last year. But what I'd say is it's always good news when you get a contribution from a facility in start-up. A reminder that start-up comes up -- comes with a lot of expenses. So you're working through that as you start these facilities.

是的。所以我想你指的是 RNG 或掩埋場沼氣銷售，其中天然氣只占很小一部分；我們也談到過，第一季如同去年一樣出現了飆升。但我要說的是，當你從一座處於啟動期的設施獲得貢獻時，這永遠是好消息。提醒一下，啟動期會帶來——伴隨著大量費用。因此，當你開始啟用這些設施時，你正在把這些問題逐步消化處理。

But we look forward to having more visibility. And certainly, we'd expect in July when we revisit all of our expectations, we'll have a little better visibility on our RNG projects. But we still are on track to have those facilities come online as we have described, so that our or a dozen-or-so, about half of them were still to come that we'd expect that by year-end. And so maybe some are a little early and some are a little later, but it's right in line with our expectations.

但我們期待能有更高的能見度。而且可以肯定的是，到了 7 月我們重新檢視所有預期時，對我們的 RNG 專案會有更好一些的能見度。不過我們仍按計畫推進，讓這些設施如我們所描述的那樣上線；也就是說，我們那一打左右的設施中，大約有一半仍待上線，我們預期在年底前完成。所以可能有些會稍早、有些會稍晚，但整體仍與我們的預期一致。

Yes, Bryan, just to reiterate on Mary Anne, we originally outlined 12 RNG projects, five were online by the end of '25. One came online in the first quarter -- the end of the first quarter of '26. So really no contribution or very de minimis. And we plan to bring another six online by year-end, most likely most of those coming online in the fourth quarter to give us all 12 online for next year. We remain confident in that.

是的，Bryan，我再重申 Mary Anne 的說法：我們最初規劃了 12 個 RNG 專案，到 25 年底已有 5 個上線。另有 1 個在第一季——也就是 26 年第一季末——上線。所以實際上沒有貢獻，或貢獻非常微不足道。我們計畫在年底前再讓另外 6 個上線，最可能是其中大多數在第四季上線，讓我們明年能有全部 12 個都上線運轉。我們對此仍然有信心。

And so the CapEx on RNG will come to effectively an end for these first 12 and then the EBITDA contribution from those will come in '27 and beyond. So you will sort of have a double impact to free cash flow starting in '27 from the RNG.

因此，這首批 12 個 RNG 專案的資本支出（CapEx）將基本告一段落，而它們帶來的 EBITDA 貢獻將在 27 年及之後逐步體現。所以從 27 年開始，你會看到 RNG 對自由現金流帶來某種「雙重」影響。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

Trevor Romeo，William Blair。

I had one more follow-up on the E&P business. I think, Mary Anne, you talked about one of the previously mothballed facilities coming back online. So can you just remind us, do you have more of those mothballed facilities kind of still off-line at this point? Or just sort of any other organic project growth opportunities or anything like that, that could still happen in the future and what the decision would look like on those?

我還有一個關於 E&P 業務的追問。我想，Mary Anne，你提到有一座先前停用的設施將重新上線。所以你能否提醒我們，目前是否還有更多這類停用設施仍處於離線狀態？或者未來是否還有其他內生成長的專案機會之類，仍可能發生？以及對這些項目的決策會是什麼樣子？

Sure. Trevor, this is Ron. So when we acquired in February of '24, 30 facilities from Secure that were disposal, landfill and processing facilities, 25 of those were operational. There were five smaller facilities that were mothballed. To date, we have brought online two of those five facilities.

當然。Trevor，我是 Ron。我們在 24 年 2 月自 Secure 收購了 30 座設施，包含處置、掩埋場與處理設施，其中 25 座在營運中。另有 5 座較小的設施處於停用狀態。截至目前，我們已讓其中 5 座裡的 2 座重新上線。

So there's three that we will continue to make market dynamic decisions on whether we will reopen those or not. These tend to be smaller facilities, but contributing $2 million to $5 million in EBITDA per facility sort of as we open them. So collectively, they're meaningful. And as I said, we've opened open. We are evaluating.

因此，剩下的 3 座我們將持續依市場動態來決定是否重新開放。這些通常是較小的設施，但一旦開放，每座可貢獻約 200 萬到 500 萬美元的 EBITDA。所以合計而言是有意義的。如我所說，我們已經讓——已經重新開放。我們正在評估。

And of course, demand will depend on whether we open one in the latter part of this year or not. I wouldn't expect it to be meaningfully contributive. But as I said, the aggregate and the rollover is meaningful as we go forward.

當然，需求將決定我們是否會在今年稍晚再開放一座。我不預期它會帶來顯著的貢獻。但如我所說，從總量以及隨時間推移的延續效應來看，對我們未來仍是有意義的。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then maybe just switching over to the New York City market. I think there was some reporting recently about time lines on some of the waste zones and the rollout kind of shifting around a bit. I know you've also kind of added to your presence there with acquisitions in the market or in the region kind of the last several quarters, let's say. So all that said, could you maybe just give us an update on how the city rollout and your kind of positioning and strategy is going there?

好的。這非常有幫助。接著也許轉到紐約市市場。我想最近有一些報導提到某些廢棄物分區的時程，以及推行進度似乎有些調整。我也知道你們在過去幾個季度透過在市場或區域內的收購，提升了在那裡的布局。綜合以上，你能否更新一下城市推行進度，以及你們在那裡的定位與策略目前如何？

Sure. Happy to. So the New York City market is going through the implementation of a nonexclusive franchise system from an openly competitive system where there were hundreds of smaller in this term called carters or haulers in the city for the commercial waste. They have divided the city into 30 commercial zones amongst the five boroughs. And they have awarded three franchise haulers per zone.

當然。很樂意。紐約市市場正從一個完全競爭的開放式體系，轉向實施一個非排他性的特許經營制度；過去在城市商業廢棄物領域，有數百家較小的業者，這裡稱為 carters 或 haulers（清運商）。他們已將全市五個行政區劃分為 30 個商業分區。並且每個分區核發 3 家特許清運商。

No hauler is allowed to have more than 15 zones. We have the maximum at 15. We have -- most of our zones are in Manhattan and Queens and The Bronx. We have a fully integrated position. We have multiple transfer stations in our zones.

任何一家清運商不得擁有超過 15 個分區。我們拿到上限的 15 個分區。我們——我們的大多數分區位於曼哈頓、皇后區與布朗克斯。我們具備完整的一體化布局。在我們的分區內有多座轉運站。

And we also have five MSW and C&D landfills that we are feeding that volume to or can feed it to over the coming years. I think it's safe to say we're really the only fully integrated company in New York City in those zones. So it is an opportunity that we are very excited about. It is coming along. But the city is going through some changes, as you know, in leadership, et cetera.

此外，我們還有 5 座 MSW（一般固體廢棄物）與 C&D（營建拆除廢棄物）掩埋場，我們正把這些量送往那裡，或在未來幾年可以把量送往那裡。我想可以很有把握地說，在紐約市這些分區裡，我們幾乎是唯一一家真正完全一體化的公司。因此，這是一個我們非常興奮的機會。目前正逐步推進。但如你所知，市府在領導層等方面正經歷一些變動。

No impact to the franchise system other than they are slowing the implementation a bit in some of the zones just because it is such a change. And so it's pushing back between 6 and 12 months, the implementation of their original zone scheduling. So it's sort of -- they hope to have everything implemented sort of by the end of '27. And now we're hearing that plan is sort of the middle of '28 to the end of '28 by the time everything is implemented. So no other change than a 6- to 12-month delay on the full implementation of the zones.

除了在部分分區稍微放慢推行速度之外，特許制度本身沒有受到影響，因為這確實是很大的變革。因此，原先分區排程的實施被往後推遲約 6 到 12 個月。他們原本希望在 27 年底前大致完成全面實施。而現在我們聽到的計畫是，等到全部落實可能會落在 28 年年中到 28 年底。所以除了全面實施延後 6 到 12 個月之外，沒有其他變化。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

Jerry Revich，Wells Fargo。

Ron, I just wanted to circle back to the performance at Arrowhead. So you folks have ramped that operation up really nicely over the course of this year. Last quarter, we spoke about internalization rate approaching 60% for the company. That's one of the contributing factors. What can that look like on a multiyear basis now as you folks have delivered on the higher capacity? How much higher could you take volumes at the landfill over the next couple of years? And where could internalization rate for the company go as you continue to ramp that up?

Ron，我想回到 Arrowhead 的表現。你們今年以來把那個營運拉升得非常好。上季我們談到公司內部化率接近 60%。這是其中一個貢獻因素。在你們已交付更高產能之後，從多年期的角度看，這可能會是什麼樣子？未來幾年你們能把該掩埋場的處理量提高到多高？而隨著你們持續拉升，公司內部化率可能會提升到什麼水準？

Sure. Well, I appreciate the kind words about the achievement of that, Jerry. It's been a lot of work by our team to get there. Look, we are right now or this year running between 7,500 and 8,000-plus tons a day at our peak when we add Arrowhead. We have a plan to get that to 8,500 to 9,000 as we roll into 2027 for the year, then this takes a number of incremental step changes in trackage, both in Arrowhead, at the landfill as well as at the intermodal facilities along the East Coast.

當然。Jerry，謝謝你對這項成果的肯定。我們團隊為此投入了大量工作才達成。你看，我們目前——或今年——在把 Arrowhead 納入後，尖峰時每天運行約 7,500 到 8,000 多噸。我們有一個計畫，隨著進入 2027 年，把全年水準提升到 8,500 到 9,000；這需要在運輸能力上進行多個增量式的階段性提升，涵蓋 Arrowhead、掩埋場本身，以及東岸沿線的聯運設施。

And so that is in the process of being implemented and laid by Norfolk Southern. So we have a cap, if you want to use that word, of 15,000 tons a day is what the facility is permitted for and that's on a 7-day, 365-day year, 24-hour a day permit cap. So there's still obviously a lot of room. So I'm not going to sit here and tell you that in five years, we're going to get to that. But I do believe that we will get north of 10,000 tons a day, it's somewhere in the two to three year mark from now as we sit here.

因此，這項工作正由諾福克南方（Norfolk Southern）在推進落實並鋪設中。所以我們有一個上限——如果你想用這個詞——該設施核准的許可量是每日15,000噸，而且這是以每週7天、每年365天、每天24小時的許可上限來核定的。所以顯然仍然有很大的空間。因此我不會坐在這裡告訴你，五年內我們就會達到那個水準。但我確實相信，從我們現在這個時間點往後推兩到三年左右，我們會達到每日超過10,000噸。

As we continue to grow, that will move the internalization on that objective into the low to mid-60% level, which, as you know, and those that follow us know, it means we're really actually more than 80% internalized in our competitive market footprint, which is where it really matters. And when you compare it against competitive market models, that's very, very high. So it is something we're focused on, but it is playing out about as we had hoped.

隨著我們持續成長，該目標的內部化程度將提升到低到中60%的水準；如你所知，以及關注我們的人也知道，這意味著在我們具競爭性的市場版圖中，我們實際上已經有超過80%是內部化的，而那才是真正重要的地方。而當你把它與競爭市場模型相比，這個水準非常、非常高。所以這是我們聚焦的事項，而且其進展大致如我們所希望的那樣。

Super. And then just a shorter-term question. Impressive pricing in the quarter and so you folks were able to put up really good margins even with the diesel headwind. Can you just talk about how pricing cadence played out over the course of the quarter? To what extent did that reflect you folks managing the business for these pockets of inflation? Or any other comments that you would make on the outperformance in the quarter?

很好。接著是一個比較短期的問題。本季定價表現令人印象深刻，因此即使面臨柴油成本的不利因素，你們仍能做出非常好的利潤率。你能談談本季整體的定價節奏是如何演進的嗎？這在多大程度上反映了你們為了因應這些通膨區段而進行的經營管理？或者你對本季優於預期的表現還有其他評論嗎？

Sure. Well, what I'd say about the outperformance in the quarter is that what's really great about it is it came from so many different places. And I will say that pricing retention was a little stronger than expected, and we'd attribute some of that to the success of rolling out that AI price optimization tool that we've talked about. So we've continued to see benefits there. We'd also say that our human capital-driven initiatives and being fully staffed and providing the level of service that allows us to defend those price increases has continued to be additive.

當然。我會說，本季表現優於預期最棒的一點是，它來自許多不同的面向。我也會說，價格留存（pricing retention）比預期稍強，我們把其中一部分歸因於我們一直在談的那套AI價格最佳化工具成功推廣上線。因此我們持續看到那方面的效益。我們也會說，我們以人力資本驅動的各項計畫、以及人員滿編並提供足以讓我們守住這些漲價的服務水準，持續帶來正向貢獻。

And then again, as we've said, all these initiatives have driven small improvements in a number of areas. And so when I look through what drove the 110 basis points of underlying margin expansion, it's pretty much every line item with the exception of fuel and related costs there, which was about a 20 basis point drag that as we've described.

再者，如同我們所說，所有這些計畫在多個領域帶來了小幅改善。因此當我回頭看是什麼推動了110個基點的基礎利潤率擴張時，幾乎是每一個科目都在貢獻，唯一的例外是燃料及相關成本，如我們所描述的，那部分約造成20個基點的拖累。

So I would say, Jerry, that's how we think about the outperformance. Now that was augmented by the fact that we had strong special waste volumes. And so landfill volumes were a little better than expected. So that's a good guy. Commodities improved over the course of the quarter. So that's a little good guy. So all those pieces working together helped to drive the margin expansion.

所以我會說，Jerry，這就是我們看待本季優於預期表現的方式。另外，這還受惠於我們的特殊廢棄物量強勁。因此掩埋場的處理量也比預期稍好。這是一個正面因素。大宗商品價格在本季期間有所改善。所以這也是一個小小的正面因素。所有這些因素一起作用，幫助推動了利潤率擴張。

Seth Weber, BNP Paribas.

Seth Weber，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Just another margin question. Your SG&A was basically flat year-over-year with higher revenue. I just -- was there anything unusual in that number in either number year-over-year? Or is there any reason to think why you can't kind of continue to keep SG&A flattish year-over-year going forward with all these initiatives you're talking about?

再問一個關於利潤率的問題。在營收更高的情況下，你們的SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）基本上與去年同期持平。我只是想問——這個數字在今年或去年同期是否有任何不尋常之處？或者有沒有任何理由讓人認為，隨著你們談到的這些計畫推進，未來你們無法繼續讓SG&A大致維持年對年持平？

Yes. There can always be some noisy things, whether it's incentive comp or other pieces. We certainly -- and that always hits in Q1. We certainly have talked about the fact that for our AI initiatives, we've hired, we've incurred some upfront costs in order to drive those benefits we're seeing. So that would be a contributor. But really nothing to call out there. Just a reminder that there's always a lot of moving pieces quarter-to-quarter.

是的。總會有一些雜訊因素，無論是獎酬性薪酬（incentive comp）或其他項目。我們當然——而且那通常會在第一季反映出來。我們也確實談過，為了推動我們看到的這些AI計畫效益，我們已經招募人員並承擔了一些前期成本。所以那會是一個貢獻因素。但整體而言沒有什麼特別需要點出的。只是提醒一下，每一季之間總是有很多變動因素。

Okay. And then just in your prepared remarks, you talked about strength in the volumes in the Western region. Can you just put any more color behind that? What's driving that? Which areas, in particular, which markets?

好的。另外，在你們的事先準備發言中，你提到西部地區的處理量表現強勁。你能再多補充一些背景嗎？是什麼在驅動？特別是哪些區域、哪些市場？

Sure. Seth, this is Ron. Yes, I think one of the reasons we point this out, and again, for those that have followed us for quite some time, the West region is what we call our exclusive region and our franchise region. And the benefit of that is that we get 100% of all volumes wherever they're generated, and we get them at a guaranteed price of the franchise. So I think it just shows that, that model derives a very strong volume and stability benefit, which is why we like it.

當然。Seth，我是Ron。是的，我想我們之所以特別指出這點，是因為——再次說明，長期關注我們的人都知道——西部地區是我們所稱的獨家區域與特許經營區域。其好處在於，無論在哪裡產生的所有處理量，我們都能取得100%，而且我們以特許經營所保障的價格取得這些量。所以我認為這顯示出，這種模式帶來非常強的量能與穩定性效益，這也是我們喜歡它的原因。

We had strong landfill and special waste growth in our Eastern Oregon landfills as well as in some of our Northern California landfills, as an example. So -- and we saw consistency and as Mary Anne noted, improvement in roll-off volumes in our West, again, because we get everything. So not only was our price per pull up there, but if our pulls actually per day were up there as well. So you do not have that price/volume competitive trade-off in the West, and I think that was what we were trying to note more than anything. And so that probably more reflects the underlying economy at -- maybe a 0% to 1% type real GDP going on right now. So that was really what the commentary was about.

以例子來說，我們在俄勒岡州東部的掩埋場，以及北加州部分掩埋場，掩埋量與特殊廢棄物都呈現強勁成長。此外，我們也看到西部的翻斗箱（roll-off）量維持一致，且如Mary Anne所提到的有所改善，原因同樣是我們能取得所有量。因此不僅我們那邊的每次拖運單價（price per pull）上升，我們每日的拖運次數（pulls per day）也上升。所以在西部你不會面臨價格/量的競爭取捨，我想我們主要想強調的就是這一點。因此，這可能更反映了當前的基本面經濟狀況——也許是真實GDP約0%到1%的那種水準。所以這就是那段評論的重點。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

Shlomo Rosenbaum，Stifel。

Ron, I just wanted to ask you a little bit more about what it looks like in terms of the cyclical parts of the business? It seems like special waste continues to be strong. C&D was down 5%. I think last quarter, it was down 4%. Maybe it's bouncing around a little bit.

Ron，我想再多問一點關於業務中循環性部分目前看起來如何？看起來特殊廢棄物仍然很強。C&D（建築與拆除廢棄物）下降了5%。我記得上季是下降4%。也許有些上下波動。

You noticed the pulls getting less negative. Are we -- are you seeing this as an improvement? Are you seeing this as kind of a flattening out? Like where do you see that we are? And where do you think that we're going to end the year in terms of overall economic activity? And where do you see the trajectory of the business in that way?

你提到拖運次數的負成長幅度在縮小。我們——你們是把這視為改善嗎？還是把它視為趨於持平？你認為我們目前處於什麼位置？以及你認為今年年底整體經濟活動會落在什麼水準？從這個角度來看，你怎麼看業務的走勢軌跡？

Well, obviously, if I understood that, we'd be in a different business. But I'll give you what we believe, how is that? Look, special waste being up for the sixth consecutive quarter. In our industry, special waste is traditionally a leading indicator. So -- and the reason is it is predominantly speculative cleanup for development of commercial or residential real estate.

嗯，顯然如果我能完全理解那點，我們可能就會在做不同的生意了。但我可以告訴你我們的看法，可以嗎？你看，特殊廢棄物已經連續第六季成長。在我們這個產業，特殊廢棄物傳統上是一個領先指標。原因在於，它主要是為了商用或住宅不動產開發所進行的投機性整地清理。

That is predominantly what special waste is. So that usually precedes infrastructure and construction development of some point -- at some point. So that's a positive. Now C&D being down 4% to 5%, that's a real-time indicator of what activity is predominantly in construction, okay? Now you don't do a lot of construction in Q1 because of the winter weather.

特殊廢棄物主要就是這個。因此它通常會在某個時間點先於基礎建設與建築開發出現。所以這是正面的。而C&D下降4%到5%，則是一個即時指標，反映主要在建築活動上的狀況，好嗎？另外，第一季因為冬季天候，你不會做太多施工。

So that's a little hard to say, is that an indicator of the economy or not. I would tell you it's probably not. I think we feel like there's pent-up demand starting to come. We're not seeing any negative indicators in our business. Obviously, if the Iran situation drags on and fuel remains elevated for consumers and businesses, that could be a pinch point in the economy.

所以這有點難說，這是否是經濟的指標。我會告訴你，可能不是。我認為我們感覺到被壓抑的需求開始浮現。我們在自身業務中沒有看到任何負面指標。顯然，如果伊朗局勢拖延，且燃料價格對消費者與企業而言仍維持在高檔，那可能會成為經濟上的一個壓力點。

But assuming, hopefully, that this is a relatively short-lived situation and fuel retreats by the second half of the year, we think there's a lot of positive momentum in the underlying economy that should start to come through. So I would tell you to your comment, we would say flat to improving was how you asked the question, and that's where we would say it is.

但假設——也希望——這是一個相對短暫的情況，且燃料價格在下半年回落，我們認為基礎經濟中有很多正向動能，應該會開始顯現。所以回到你剛才的評論，你問的是持平到改善，我們會說目前就是這樣的狀況。

The other observation from it would be that, that was our 10th consecutive quarter of negative C&D volumes, right? So clearly, this has been around for a while, roll-off pulls similarly. At some point, the comps get that much easier, and so you should see it get better. And so that was kind of the expectation going into the year that maybe things became less negative. As Ron said, Q1 is probably not the right time to look for it, but that's how we're thinking about the business trajectory.

另外一個觀察是，那是我們連續第10個季度 C&D 量為負成長，對吧？所以很明顯，這已經持續一段時間了，合約到期（roll-off）也有類似的拉動效應。在某個時間點，比較基期會變得容易很多，因此你應該會看到情況好轉。所以這也是我們在年初的預期：也許情況會變得沒那麼負面。如 Ron 所說，第一季可能不是適合期待看到它的時間點，但這就是我們對業務走勢的思考方式。

Okay. And then just shifting back to a question you touched on in rail and how you're continuing to internalize more over there. I just wanted to ask, is there -- in terms of what's going on to the rail as you're ramping up the tons, is it primarily internalization? Or are you seeing some also at the landfill third-party contributing to some of the growth in the tons there as well? I'm asking that both kind of strategically and then also just in terms of where the pricing is for rail versus kind of the stuff that is landfilled more locally?

好的。接著回到你在鐵路（rail）那邊提到的問題，以及你們如何持續在那邊提高內部化（internalize）的比例。我想問的是，就你們在提升運量（tons）時鐵路端的情況而言，主要是內部化嗎？還是你們也看到一些來自掩埋場（landfill）的第三方量，對那邊的運量成長也有所貢獻？我這麼問，一方面是策略層面，另一方面也是想了解鐵路的定價相對於較在地掩埋處理的那些量，價格大概落在哪裡？

Sure. So at this point, Shlomo, most of what is going on the rail, our rail, at least in our situation, is a greater amount of internalized tons. Now that has been very purposeful. We've taken tons over the last 1.5 years that were going into third-party sites on the Eastern Seaboard. Some of those our sites, some of those third parties, and we've internalized some of that volume.

當然。所以目前為止，Shlomo，我們這邊上鐵路的量——至少以我們的情況而言——大多是更多的內部化噸數。這是非常刻意的安排。過去一年半，我們把原本送往東岸第三方場址的噸數移轉過來。其中有些是我們自己的場址，有些是第三方，而我們已將其中一部分量內部化。

We have not yet pursued aggressively third-party volumes into our intermodal transfers on the Eastern Seaboard because we have had some capacity constraints at some of our Northeastern landfills. So we have pulled down some of our volume there and internalized it on the rail so that we could take customer volumes into those landfills. And so as that alleviates itself here over the next year to two years at a couple of our sites, we will be able to pursue more third-party volume onto our rails, and that will be incremental to us. But we have not yet done that. So this has been mostly internalized volume at this point in time.

我們尚未積極把第三方量導入我們在東岸的聯運轉運（intermodal transfers），因為我們在東北部的部分掩埋場存在一些產能限制。因此我們把那邊的一些自有量拉下來，改以鐵路內部化處理，好讓那些掩埋場能接收客戶量。所以當未來一到兩年內，我們在其中幾個場址的限制逐步緩解後，我們就能在鐵路上爭取更多第三方量，這對我們而言會是增量。但我們目前還沒有這麼做。所以到目前為止，主要仍是內部化量。

Look, as far as the competitiveness of the rails, look, the longer you go, the farther you go, in our case now, rail is going 1,500 to 1,800 miles from the Eastern Seaboard to Alabama. So it's quite some distance, you start becoming more competitive with an increasing fuel surcharge than you do on over the road. If you were going a shorter distance, trucking would be more cost effective. But when you start talking longer distances, rail is more cost-effective than trucking.

至於鐵路的競爭力，距離越長、運得越遠——以我們現在的情況，鐵路是從東岸到阿拉巴馬州，約 1,500 到 1,800 英里。距離相當長，在燃料附加費（fuel surcharge）上升時，相較於公路運輸（over the road），你會變得更具競爭力。如果距離較短，卡車運輸會更具成本效益。但當你談的是更長距離時，鐵路比卡車更具成本效益。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer & Co.

Noah Kaye，Oppenheimer & Co.（奧本海默公司）。

Great. The first one is on yield and price. I would just observe that this 130 bps spread between core price and yield is already quite tight in a positive way for this industry. And so I'd guess that spread probably tightened year-over-year given the intentional shedding moderating and some of the AI and turnover and safety initiatives. But is there any way to dimension or confirm what kind of improvement in the spread might have been year-over-year? And how should we be thinking about that sort of spread for '26 as a whole? How should we be modeling that?

很好。第一個問題是關於收益率（yield）與價格（price）。我想先觀察一下，核心價格與收益率之間 130 個基點（bps）的差距，對這個產業而言已經是相當緊、而且是正向的。因此我猜這個差距可能在年對年上進一步收斂，原因包括刻意汰除（shedding）放緩，以及一些 AI、員工流動與安全倡議。但有沒有辦法量化或確認一下，這個差距年對年大概改善了多少？另外，我們應該如何看待 2026 年全年這種差距？建模時應該怎麼處理？

Sure. So when I look back and try to do apples-for-apples in prior periods, I'd say I agree with you overall that, that churn was probably running more in that 150 to 200 basis points for several quarters. And so some of what we've seen is a tightening there. What gets a little trickier, as you can appreciate, Noah, is that mix factors into this and so does seasonality, therefore.

當然。所以當我回頭看、並嘗試在前期做同口徑（apples-for-apples）的比較時，我會說我整體同意你的看法：那個流失/汰換（churn）在好幾個季度大概是 150 到 200 個基點。因此我們看到的部分現象就是差距在收斂。不過如你所理解的，Noah，較棘手的是組合（mix）也會影響這個數字，季節性也同樣會影響。

And it's a reminder that when we look at, for instance, selling in the Northeast and that rates per yard can be twice as much as they are in, say, our Mid-South or Southeast region, that is another factor that's influencing what that amount is, which is frankly why we thought it was good to get it out of volume because it was overstating the negative volumes in a way that felt punitive.

也提醒一下，當我們看例如在東北地區的銷售時，每立方碼（yard）的費率可能是我們中南部或東南部地區的兩倍，這也是影響該差距大小的另一個因素。

So what we're really trying to do is achieve some parity with our peers or comparability with our peers, and we're going to acknowledge that it's still imperfect, but I think that's another consideration to have, which could cause a little variability.

所以我們真正想做的是，與同業達到某種一致性（parity）或可比性（comparability）。

Okay. And then related, it looks like risk management as a percentage of COGS improved 30 bps year-over-year in the quarter. You've talked in the past about risk management as a lagging benefit of improved safety rates. Was that in any way a positive surprise? And how are you thinking about in the guide risk management as a benefit to margins for '26?

好的。接著相關的問題，看起來本季風險管理（risk management）占銷貨成本（COGS）的比例年對年改善了 30 個基點。你們過去談過，風險管理是安全率改善的滯後性效益。這在任何程度上算是正向驚喜嗎？另外在指引（guide）中，你們如何看待 2026 年風險管理對毛利率/利潤率（margins）的貢獻？

Yes. As you'll recall, we called it out in Q4 that, that was the first time we'd really seen it flip from being a headwind to a tailwind. And so was it a surprise? Look, it's always encouraging when you see the trends that you've expected to see in the business materialize in the numbers, you're always cautious because you can't generalize. But two quarters is certainly good to see.

是的。如你所記得的，我們在第四季提到，那是我們第一次真正看到它從逆風轉為順風。所以算不算驚喜？你看，當你看到原本預期會在業務中出現的趨勢，確實在數字上實現時，總是令人鼓舞；但你也會保持謹慎，因為不能一概而論。不過連續兩個季度看到這樣的表現，確實是好現象。

And yes, we came into the year, Noah, as you'll recall, we've talked about the fact those drivers for outsized margin expansion, we said this was really the final piece of those human capital-driven benefits, the lagging benefit of risk. So is it generally in line with what we were hoping for this year? Yes. It will vary quarter-to-quarter, but this is the right way to think about it. It's a good guy that was factored into our expectations.

而且是的，Noah，我們在年初進來時——如你所記得的——我們談過那些推動超額利潤率擴張（outsized margin expansion）的驅動因素，我們說這其實是那些由人力資本（human capital）驅動效益的最後一塊拼圖，也就是風險的滯後性效益。所以整體而言是否符合我們今年的期待？是的。它會在季度之間有所波動，但這就是正確的思考方式。這是一個已被納入我們預期中的正向因素。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

Kevin Chiang，CIBC。

Congrats on a strong start to the year here. Maybe just a follow-on on, I guess, a number of questions that were asked along the same vein. Just on the special waste, I appreciate a lot of the moving parts in Q1 can be a little bit noisy with weather. But I guess when you look back historically, what type of lead indicator is special waste to total volumes? Like does it typically lead total volume inflection by like a year, 6 months, 18 months? Is there any like rule of thumb that we can point to when you see this type of special waste improvement over such a long period of time?

恭喜今年開局表現強勁。我想就剛才同一脈絡被問到的幾個問題再追問一下。關於特殊廢棄物（special waste），我理解第一季有很多變動因素，天氣也可能讓數據有些雜訊。但回頭看歷史，特殊廢棄物對總量而言通常是什麼樣的領先指標？例如它通常會領先總量拐點一年、六個月、十八個月之類的嗎？當你看到這種特殊廢棄物在這麼長一段時間內改善時，有沒有什麼經驗法則可以參考？

Yes. I mean I think, Kevin, it's a little anecdotal, but I would tell you that generally, it's certainly in that next 6 to 12 months. I mean, look, this is property being cleared by developers who have pulled permits to do speculative construction or development. So that's shopping centers, infrastructure, apartments, homes, et cetera. So you're probably talking that, that goes on for that lot clearing and cleanup goes on for three to nine months and then construction begins.

是的。我的意思是，Kevin，這多少有點軼事性，但我會告訴你，一般而言，確實大多落在接下來6到12個月。你看，這是開發商在取得許可後，為了投機性施工或開發而進行的土地清理。所以包括購物中心、基礎建設、公寓、住宅等等。因此你大概可以理解為：清地與清運整理會持續三到九個月，然後才開始施工。

So we've talked about it, it's improving for six consecutive quarters now. So I think it's reasonable to expect that by this summer, as we go into the summer and through it, you should see some pickup in C&D and flow through into the solid waste business. I mean that would be a traditional pattern.

我們也談過，這已經連續六個季度在改善。所以我認為合理的預期是：到今年夏天、進入夏季並在夏季期間，你應該會看到C&D（建築與拆除）有所回升，並進一步傳導到固體廢棄物業務。我的意思是，這會是傳統的模式。

That's helpful. And maybe if I can ask the yield and core price question over a longer period of time. You're definitely gaining traction with some of your AI revenue management strategies here. Like when you look at -- whether it's a ratio or a spread, does that change over time as you look at some of the benefits from this AI tool? Like do you reduce churn and so it helps the yield or maybe the rollbacks also improve, so maybe the net impact on the numerator and denominator are kind of equal? Just wondering how that ratio may or may not be impacted as you gain momentum on some of these revenue management initiatives driven by AI.

這很有幫助。另外如果可以的話，我想把「收益率（yield）」和「核心價格（core price）」的問題拉長時間來問。你們在AI營收管理策略上顯然正在取得進展。當你看——不論是比率或價差——隨著你從這個AI工具獲得一些效益，這會隨時間改變嗎？例如你降低客戶流失（churn）從而提升收益率，或是回調（rollbacks）也改善了，因此分子與分母的淨影響可能差不多？我只是想了解，隨著你們在這些由AI驅動的營收管理措施上加速推進，這個比率可能會或不會受到什麼影響。

Sure. So as you know, Kevin, first of all, of course, the absolute value of whatever this number is, is a function of what our costs are doing. So to the extent that we're seeing benefits in costs that say we need less price, that will factor into what you see, whether it's price or yield. Now specific to yield as compared to core price, I would expect, and we look forward to, needing to put less price on the street, but to retain more because of these tools. And as we've said, that's one of the benefits we're already seeing.

當然。所以如你所知，Kevin，首先，這個數字的絕對值取決於我們的成本走勢。因此，如果我們在成本端看到效益，例如我們需要較少的漲價幅度，這會反映在你看到的數字上，不論你看的是價格或收益率。至於收益率相對於核心價格，我會預期——也期待——我們需要在市場上推出較少的漲價，但因為這些工具而能保留更多（漲價成果/收入）。而且如我們所說，這也是我們已經看到的其中一項效益。

And ultimately, as we've described, it's really keeping the customer longer that's the greatest benefit. And so I would expect there to be some improvement in yields, but that would be tempered by the need for less price overall. So I'm not -- we'll take both of those things into consideration in terms of expectations for what those numbers look like.

而最終，如我們所描述的，最大的效益其實是讓客戶留得更久。因此我會預期收益率會有一些改善，但這會被整體所需漲價較少的需求所抵銷。所以我不會——我們會把這兩件事都納入考量，來形成對這些數字表現的預期。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

Tobey Sommer，Truist。

If I could ask a follow-up question on the rail point. As you look at the business and the industry over a long stretch of time, how do you see the volumes shifting towards rail? And how -- what are your plans to help drive that change beyond Arrowhead? I imagine with the success you've experienced, you're looking at other ways to drive that change.

我想就鐵路這點追問一下。從更長的時間跨度來看，你如何看待業務與產業的量逐步轉向鐵路運輸？以及——除了Arrowhead之外——你們有哪些計畫來推動這個轉變？我想以你們目前的成功經驗，你們應該也在尋找其他方式來推動這個改變。

Yes. Tobey, I mean, obviously, look, today, rail is predominantly or almost exclusively a Northeastern Seaboard modality for waste because of very high tip fees in the Northeast because of landfill scarcity. You're not building new landfills in the Northeast, and it's obviously difficult to expand landfills in the upper Northeast. So the combination of all of that is ripe for rail to take waste out of the geography. As landfill airspace scarcity gets tighter in other parts of the country, such as along the lower East Coast Seaboard, as an example, down in through Florida and the Carolinas, I think you will begin to see similar things happen at smaller levels there next.

是的。Tobey，我的意思是，很明顯，你看，今天鐵路運輸主要、或幾乎完全，是美國東北沿岸（Northeastern Seaboard）的廢棄物運輸方式，因為東北地區掩埋場稀缺，導致傾倒費（tip fees）非常高。你不會在東北新建掩埋場，而且在東北上部擴建掩埋場也顯然很困難。因此上述因素的組合，使得用鐵路把廢棄物運出該地理區域變得很有利可圖。隨著美國其他地區的掩埋空間（airspace）稀缺性變得更緊，例如以東南部沿海較低段為例，往南延伸到佛羅里達與卡羅萊納州一帶，我認為接下來你會開始看到類似情況在那裡以較小規模發生。

You still have a very -- a large amount of airspace available in the Southeast and in the Midwest and in the Rocky Mountains at relatively inexpensive cost relative to the Northeast. So it's not as conducive in that geography for rail. And then on the West Coast, in the Pacific Northwest, you do have rail as a very large modality that has been in place for quite some years in Washington and Oregon. You do not have it really in California, and I would not expect it there anytime soon. So look, you really need to be moving the volumes somewhere probably north of 300 to 400 miles for rail to make sense in most -- or tip fee environment.

在東南部、中西部以及落磯山脈地區，你仍然有非常——大量的掩埋空間可用，而且相對於東北，成本相當低。因此在那些地理區域，鐵路運輸就沒那麼有利。而在西岸的太平洋西北地區，鐵路作為一種非常重要的運輸方式已經存在多年，主要在華盛頓州與奧勒岡州。但在加州基本上沒有，我也不預期短期內會出現。所以你看，一般而言，要讓鐵路在多數——或在傾倒費環境下——具備合理性，你可能需要把量移動到大概超過300到400英里。

So as you go forward 5, 10 years and you continue to see consolidation of landfills and increasing airspace rates or tip fee rates, you will see more and more rail as waste moves economically farther. So look, without divulging to the last part of your question, let me just say, stay tuned. And I think with -- for us, you will see an incremental rail opportunity that will happen in 2026, and I'm quite confident in that. So it will continue to develop throughout the industry. It will be slower, but follow landfill tip fees and the price of crude because those are the two things that as they move up, rail becomes more and more economical.

因此，往後5年、10年，隨著你持續看到掩埋場整併，以及掩埋空間費率或傾倒費率上升，你會看到越來越多的鐵路運輸，因為廢棄物會在經濟上被迫運到更遠的地方。所以你看，不透露你問題最後一部分的細節，我只能說，敬請期待。我認為——對我們而言——你會在2026年看到一個增量的鐵路機會出現，我對此相當有信心。因此它會在整個產業中持續發展。它會比較慢，但會跟著掩埋傾倒費以及原油價格走，因為這兩個因素一旦上升，鐵路就會變得越來越具經濟性。

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Ron Mittelstaedt for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回給Ron Mittelstaedt作結語。

If there are no further questions, on behalf of the entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Reg G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again, and we look forward to connecting with you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

如果沒有進一步的問題，我謹代表整個管理團隊，感謝各位今天收聽並關注本次電話會議。Mary Anne與Joe Box今天也會在場，針對我們在FD規則（Regulation FD）、G規則（Reg G）以及加拿大適用證券法規下允許回答、但在會中未涵蓋的任何直接問題提供回覆。再次感謝，並期待在接下來的投資人會議或我們下一次財報電話會議上與各位交流。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。