Wayfair Inc (W) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Wayfair third-quarter 2024 earnings release and conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Wayfair 2024 年第三季收益發布和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) And finally, I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）最後，我想告知所有參與者，本次通話正在錄音。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'd now like to welcome James Lamb, Head of Investor Relations to begin the conference.

現在我歡迎投資者關係主管 James Lamb 開始會議。

James, over to you.

詹姆斯，交給你了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

Today, we will review our third-quarter 2024 results.

今天，我們將回顧 2024 年第三季業績。

With me are Niraj Shah, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Co-Chairman; Steve Conine, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman; and Kate Gulliver, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer.

和我在一起的還有共同創辦人、執行長兼聯合主席 Niraj Shah； Steve Conine，共同創辦人兼聯合主席；財務長兼首席行政官 Kate Gulliver。

We will all be available for Q&A following today's prepared remarks.

在今天準備好的發言之後，我們都可以接受問答。

I would like to remind you that our call today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those regarding our future prospects, business strategies, industry trends, and our financial performance, including guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

我想提醒您，我們今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關我們的未來前景、業務戰略、行業趨勢和我們的財務業績的陳述，包括 2024 年第四季度的指導。

All forward-looking statements made on today's call are based on information available to us as of today's date.

今天電話會議中所做的所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天為止我們掌握的資訊。

We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will be accurate, although we believe that we have been reasonable in our expectations and assumptions.

儘管我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的，但我們不能保證任何前瞻性陳述都是準確的。

Our 10-K for 2023, our 10-Q for this quarter, and our subsequent SEC filings identify certain factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made today.

我們的 2023 年 10-K、本季的 10-Q 以及隨後向 SEC 提交的文件確定了某些可能導致公司實際業績與今天做出的任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements, whether as a result of any new information, future events or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何這些聲明的義務，無論是由於任何新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

Also, please note that during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as we review the company's performance, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow.

另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們將在審查公司績效時討論某些非公認會計原則財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。

These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered replacements for and should be read together with GAAP results.

這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代公認會計原則結果，而應與公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。

Please refer to the Investor Relations section of our website to obtain a copy of our earnings release and investor presentation, which contain descriptions of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of any non-GAAP measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures.

請參閱我們網站的投資者關係部分，以取得我們的收益發布和投資者簡報的副本，其中包含我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的描述以及任何非 GAAP 指標與最接近的可比較 GAAP 指標的調整。

This call is being recorded, and a webcast will be available for replay on our IR website.

本次通話正在錄音，我們的 IR 網站將提供網路廣播重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Niraj.

我現在想把電話轉給 Niraj。

Thanks, James, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝詹姆斯，大家早安。

I'm excited to share our third-quarter results with you today.

我很高興今天與您分享我們的第三季業績。

Q3 marked another proof point of resilience for Wayfair with further market share capture in the face of sustained challenges in the category.

第三季標誌著 Wayfair 的韌性的另一個證明點，面對該類別的持續挑戰，進一步佔領了市場份額。

Once again, we navigated a dynamic consumer environment while driving further discipline on costs to achieve a mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter in a row.

我們再次駕馭充滿活力的消費者環境，同時進一步加強成本控制，連續第二季實現中個位數的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

But that's just one piece of the picture.

但這只是圖片的一小部分。

As I've mentioned many times before, our North Star is driving adjusted EBITDA in excess of equity-based compensation and CapEx, and we're pleased to be making noteworthy improvements across each one of these totaling almost $100 million year over year in Q3.

正如我之前多次提到的，我們的北極星正在推動調整後的EBITDA 超過基於股權的薪酬和資本支出，我們很高興在第三季度的每一項上都取得了顯著的改進，總計接近1億美元。

The third quarter exhibited a continuation of choppy macro trends we've seen across 2024.

第三季延續了 2024 年宏觀趨勢的波動。

Consumers remain trepidatious in their spending patterns and are demonstrating more price elasticity than we saw in the early months of the year.

消費者對其支出模式仍然感到不安，並且表現出比今年頭幾個月更大的價格彈性。

While we were pleased with the response we saw over Way Day at the start of the quarter, which we ran as an extended event for the first time this fall, it has become clear even as we exited September that we were seeing a broader pullback by shoppers in the lead up to the election.

雖然我們對本季初在“Way Day”上看到的反應感到滿意，今年秋天我們首次將其作為延長活動舉辦，但即使在 9 月結束時，我們也清楚地看到了更廣泛的回調選舉前的購物者。

Attention is focused away from the home right now and when customers are in the market is increasingly for lower investment, lower consideration purchases versus larger ticket items that represent our traditional area of strength.

現在，人們的注意力不再集中在家庭上，當客戶進入市場時，越來越多地尋求較低投資、較低考慮因素的購買，而不是代表我們傳統優勢領域的大件商品。

We remain optimistic that pieces are coming together to support a category recovery in the quarters to come.

我們仍然樂觀地認為，各方面的努力將共同支持未來幾季的品類復甦。

While it will take some time to play out, this improvement is poised to provide some relief in what has become a historic slowdown in the housing market.

雖然這需要一段時間才能見效，但這項改善有望緩解房地產市場歷史性放緩的局面。

Redfin published an analysis at the end of Q3, noting that just 25 of every 1,000 US homes changed hands in the first eight months of the year, the lowest level they saw in their study running back to 2012 and more than 30% below the turnover levels back in 2019.

Redfin 在第三季末發表了一份分析報告，指出今年前8 個月，每1,000 套美國房屋中只有25 套易手，這是他們研究中自2012 年以來的最低水平，比營業額低30%以上回到2019年的水準。

Now, as we've said for many quarters, we are not running the business with the expectation of a recovery in any specific timeframe.

現在，正如我們在許多季度中所說的那樣，我們在經營業務時並不期望在任何特定時間範圍內復甦。

For more than two years, we've done two things simultaneously: driving cost efficiency and spending discipline to run the business profitably in a recessionary environment and setting ourselves up to be a considerable beneficiary when the category does return to growth.

兩年多來，我們同時做了兩件事：提高成本效率和支出紀律，以便在經濟衰退的環境下使業務盈利，並在該類別恢復增長時使自己成為可觀的受益者。

You've seen the former quite clearly with what is now nine sequential quarters of compression in our fixed costs and a third-quarter result that is the lowest SOTG&A we've had since 2021.

您已經清楚地看到了前者，我們的固定成本現在已連續九個季度壓縮，而第三季度的結果是我們自 2021 年以來最低的 SOTG&A。

The latter you've seen us demonstrate across several vectors.

您已經看到我們在多個向量上演示了後者。

For much of 2023, our mantra focused on the core recipe, bringing the best combination of competitive pricing, fast delivery, and broad availability together into an offering that wins customer orders day in and day out.

在2023 年的大部分時間裡，我們的口號都集中在核心配方上，將有競爭力的價格、快速交付和廣泛可用性的最佳組合結合在一起，打造出日復一日贏得客戶訂單的產品。

Across 2024, we want a step further by concentrating on strategies to drive mind share and frequency, including the three major initiatives we've spoken to several times.

到 2024 年，我們希望更進一步，專注於推動思想分享和頻率的策略，包括我們多次討論過的三項主要舉措。

Even if customers aren't shopping for their homes at the moment, when that time does come, we want to make sure Wayfair is their first destination.

即使顧客目前不打算買房，當時機到來時，我們也希望確保 Wayfair 是他們的第一個目的地。

These efforts include many things such as our brand refresh back in March and the launch of our first large format Wayfair-branded store over Memorial Day weekend.

這些努力包括許多事情，例如我們在三月的品牌更新以及在陣亡將士紀念日週末推出我們的第一家大型 Wayfair 品牌商店。

Our new initiative is our loyalty offering, which just began rolling out last week.

我們的新措施是我們的忠誠度服務，上週才剛開始推出。

For $29 per year, Wayfair Rewards customers will unlock exceptional value and experiences with benefits including 5% back on purchases, free shipping on all orders, access to exclusive shopping events, special offers, and a dedicated members-only support line.

Wayfair Rewards 客戶每年只需花費 29 美元即可獲得非凡的價值和體驗，其福利包括 5% 的購買返利、所有訂單免費送貨、參加獨家購物活動、特別優惠以及專門的會員專線支援熱線。

We know how much investors love math, so let me walk you through the business model of Wayfair Rewards at a high level.

我們知道投資人有多熱愛數學，所以讓我從高層次向您介紹 Wayfair Rewards 的商業模式。

Our average customer typically shops on Wayfair about twice a year, spending around $300 per order.

我們的普通客戶通常每年大約在 Wayfair 上購物兩次，每個訂單花費約 300 美元。

Priced at $29 per year, the 5% back benefit would be roughly breakeven for our average shopper.

每年 29 美元的價格，5% 的回饋對我們的普通購物者來說基本上是收支平衡的。

Our goal is to push customers out of that tours for your bucket into the three orders per year bucket or even higher.

我們的目標是將客戶從您的旅行團中推向每年三訂單甚至更高的數量。

While we have more than 20 million active customers who have placed at least a single order over the past 12 months, about 10 of those are shoppers that have made four or more orders in the same timeframe.

雖然我們有超過 2000 萬活躍客戶在過去 12 個月內至少下了一個訂單，但其中大約 10 名購物者在同一時間範圍內下了四個或更多訂單。

We see an important opportunity to grow that figure given shoppers typically purchase in the category six to eight times per year.

鑑於購物者通常每年購買該類別六到八次，我們看到了增加這一數字的重要機會。

There's a flywheel we see from customers that grow their shopping occasions on Wayfair as they increasingly spend more time on the site, rouse a broader selection of the catalog and are more likely to shop through our app.

我們從客戶那裡看到了一個飛輪，他們在Wayfair 上的購物次數不斷增加，因為他們在網站上花費的時間越來越多，激發了更廣泛的目錄選擇，並且更有可能透過我們的應用程式購物。

These behaviors are self-reinforcing, and we see that the path for a shopper to move from three to four orders per year is even quicker than the path from two to three.

這些行為是自我強化的，我們發現購物者每年從 3 個訂單增加到 4 個訂單的速度甚至比從 2 個訂單增加到 3 個訂單的速度還要快。

Customers who shop four or more times on Wayfair in any 12-month period, not only spend more but also nearly a third more likely to come to us via free traffic.

在任何 12 個月內在 Wayfair 上購物四次或以上的客戶不僅會花費更多，而且透過免費流量來找我們的可能性也增加了近三分之一。

So growing that cohort is highly beneficial to margins.

因此，擴大這一群體對利潤率非常有利。

With the benefits of Wayfair Rewards, if that average customer now makes an incremental third order on Wayfair versus a competitor, we've grown our share of wallet by 50%.

借助 Wayfair Rewards 的優勢，如果該普通客戶現在在 Wayfair 上比競爭對手增加第三筆訂單，我們的錢包份額就增加了 50%。

Those three orders at $300 a piece are worth $900 of total revenue, $45 of which goes back to the customer, thanks to the program.

這三份訂單的單價為 300 美元，總收入為 900 美元，其中 45 美元透過該計劃返還給客戶。

Accounting for the annual fee, we've now nicely grown revenue per customer per year profitably.

考慮到年費，我們現在每年每位客戶的收入都在大幅成長，並且獲利。

That doesn't even include the efficiency on advertising as Wayfair Rewards customers are that much more likely to return on a direct basis.

這甚至不包括廣告效率，因為 Wayfair Rewards 客戶更有可能直接返回。

There's tremendous potential here to drive more frequency amongst our existing as well as new shoppers.

這裡有巨大的潛力可以提高現有和新購物者的購買頻率。

We're excited about all the different ways customers will be able to interact with the new program from deal hunting in our member exclusive sales to saving up rewards over time for big aspirational upgrades.

我們對客戶能夠以各種不同的方式與新計劃進行互動感到興奮，從在我們的會員專屬銷售中尋找優惠，到隨著時間的推移為大的理想升級節省獎勵。

One of the areas we're excited to stimulate is in the frequency portion of our catalog like kitchenware, tabletop, decor, and bedding where the benefit value really stands out.

我們很高興刺激的領域之一是我們目錄中的頻率部分，例如廚具、桌面、裝飾和床上用品，其中的效益價值非常突出。

We plan to lean into the treat yourself angle of the program and encourage customers to use their rewards for all those upgrades and finishing touches that they have been dreaming of but may not have had the budget for.

我們計劃從獎勵自己的角度出發，鼓勵客戶將獎勵用於他們一直夢想但可能沒有預算的所有升級和收尾工作。

We're also eager to bring the program to new movers and project shoppers like renovators or remodelers.

我們也渴望將該計劃帶給新搬家者和專案購買者，例如翻新者或改建者。

These are customers with high category needs who can draw a lot of value from the program.

這些客戶具有較高的品類需求，可以從該計劃中獲得許多價值。

We've been focusing on these audiences for some time across our marketing and sales organizations, and we're excited to incorporate the value proposition of Wayfair Rewards in those outreaches to better attract their full business.

一段時間以來，我們的行銷和銷售組織一直關注這些受眾，我們很高興能夠將 Wayfair Rewards 的價值主張納入這些推廣活動中，以更好地吸引他們的全部業務。

You've likely seen some of this marketing outreach since the launch of our brand refresh.

自從我們推出品牌更新以來，您可能已經看到了一些此類行銷活動。

As we discussed right after the debut in the spring, this was years in the making, and we've been extremely pleased at the results we've seen in the months since.

正如我們在春季首次亮相後所討論的那樣，這是經過多年的製作，我們對幾個月後所看到的結果感到非常滿意。

Much of our work has been focused higher in the customer acquisition funnel as we've increased our investment in television, social media, and streaming audio and video.

隨著我們增加對電視、社交媒體以及串流音訊和視訊的投資，我們的大部分工作都集中在客戶獲取管道上。

Since Q1, we've seen nice improvements in qualified recall waiting, which measures how well customers recall seeing any advertising from Wayfair across any channel.

自第一季以來，我們在合格召回等待方面看到了很大的改進，它衡量了客戶對透過任何管道看到 Wayfair 的任何廣告的回憶程度。

This is an important high-level view of how our advertising is resonating with consumers and to what degree they recall key details like our product message and identity.

這是我們的廣告如何與消費者產生共鳴以及他們在多大程度上回憶起我們的產品資訊和身分等關鍵細節的重要高層視圖。

In fact, we are now ranked in the top 10 among major retailers.

事實上，我們現在在主要零售商中排名前十。

When we launched the Wayborhood, we talked about driving creative content that could exist across our portfolio of advertising channels and serve as a foundation for many years of marketing campaigns to come.

當我們推出 Wayborhood 時，我們談到了推動創意內容，這些內容可以存在於我們的廣告管道組合中，並作為未來多年行銷活動的基礎。

In fact, in the past few weeks, we've rolled out our first major update to the Wayborhood with our holiday chapter and are in active development on more content for 2025.

事實上，在過去的幾周里，我們已經透過假期章節推出了 Wayborhood 的首次重大更新，並正在積極開發 2025 年的更多內容。

We've seen very healthy ROI on the first iteration of the campaign, with strong results when it comes to brand linkage and awareness as customers are quickly coming to recognize the Wayborhood as a symbol of Wayfair.

我們在活動的第一次迭代中看到了非常健康的投資回報率，在品牌聯繫和知名度方面取得了強勁的成果，因為客戶很快就認識到 Wayborhood 作為 Wayfair 的象徵。

This has translated to positive movement in our core metrics, direct traffic, and even more importantly, revenue per direct visits.

這轉化為我們的核心指標、直接流量，甚至更重要的是每次直接存取收入的正面變化。

Back in the spring, I noted how the launch of the campaign came alongside a refreshed view of our channel mix as we step more holistically into parts of the advertising funnel where we had been lagging behind.

早在春天，我就注意到，隨著我們更全面地進入廣告漏斗中我們一直落後的部分，該活動的推出是如何與我們的管道組合煥然一新的。

It should come as no surprise that influencer marketing has grown to be an incredibly important way that customers are exposed to the category.

毫不奇怪，影響力行銷已成為客戶接觸該類別的極其重要的方式。

Shoppers are now routinely looking towards creators across YouTube, Instagram Reels, TikTok, and more for inspiration on their next home purchases.

購物者現在經常在 YouTube、Instagram Reels、TikTok 等平台上尋找創作者，以獲取下次購屋的靈感。

Our reach and influencer marketing today is quite small relative to potential, and we're excited to scale it.

相對於潛力而言，我們今天的影響力和影響者行銷規模相當小，我們很高興能夠擴大規模。

Based on feedback from the creator community, we've made significant investments in improving the terms and technology supporting our program.

根據創作者社群的回饋，我們在改進支持我們計劃的條款和技術方面進行了大量投資。

Creators are eager to work with Wayfair because we treat them with the same mindset we treat our suppliers.

創作者渴望與 Wayfair 合作，因為我們對待他們的態度與對待供應商的態度相同。

We succeed when they succeed.

當他們成功時我們也成功。

This plan is working.

這個計劃正在發揮作用。

We have dramatically increased our monthly piece of content produced by the nearly 4,000 and growing creators we've partnered with.

我們已大幅增加了每月由我們合作的近 4,000 名且不斷成長的創作者製作的內容。

Over the summer, we've amplified our influencer content and are seeing promising return on ad spend for the dollars we've tested.

今年夏天，我們擴大了影響力內容，並看到我們測試過的廣告支出有可觀的回報。

In fact, we've seen payback windows that are on par with what we find on lower funnel social ads, all while attracting what we expect to be higher lifetime value customers.

事實上，我們看到的投資回收期與我們在漏斗下端社交廣告中發現的投資回收期相當，同時吸引了我們期望的更高終身價值的客戶。

We have a dense product road map that will allow us to scale breadth and depth of activities with influencers in partnership with our suppliers across the major platforms.

我們有一個密集的產品路線圖，這將使我們能夠與主要平台上的供應商合作，擴大與影響者的活動的廣度和深度。

This will open the door to working with an even wider field of creative talent as we get into 2025.

進入 2025 年，這將為我們與更廣泛領域的創意人才合作打開大門。

The ROI here is clear to us, but we want to make it clear to you.

這裡的投資報酬率對我們來說很清楚，但我們想讓您也清楚。

We're still operating within our rigorous payback thresholds that extend up to one year but are often much quicker.

我們仍在嚴格的投資回收閾值內運營，該閾值最長可達一年，但通常要快得多。

As I mentioned at the outset, we remain laser-focused on driving healthy profitability, while setting ourselves up for success as the category rebounds.

正如我在一開始提到的，我們仍然專注於推動健康的獲利能力，同時為隨著該類別的反彈而取得成功做好準備。

That has been the core goal across all three of our major initiatives in 2024 to foster customer loyalty and spur repeat business while driving economic value.

這是我們 2024 年所有三項主要措施的核心目標，即培養顧客忠誠度並刺激回頭客，同時推動經濟價值。

By leaning into marketing strategies that build brand affinity and introducing programs like Wayfair Rewards to enhance the customer experience, we're not just aiming for short-term gains, of building long-lasting relationships with our customers that will be accretive on both the top and bottom lines.

透過採用建立品牌親和力的行銷策略，並引入 Wayfair Rewards 等計畫來增強客戶體驗，我們的目標不僅僅是短期收益，而是與客戶建立持久的關係，這將在雙方都獲得增值和底線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We hope you all have a festive holiday season.

我們希望大家度過一個節日。

And now let me pass it to Kate to go through our financials.

現在讓我把它交給凱特，讓她了解我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Niraj, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Niraj，大家早安。

Let's dive into our third-quarter results, beginning with the top line.

讓我們從營收開始深入了解第三季的業績。

Net revenue was down 2% year over year in Q3 or down about 7.5% on a sequential basis, closely in line with the sequential pattern we saw in 2023.

第三季淨收入年減 2%，季減約 7.5%，與我們在 2023 年看到的環比模式密切相關。

This is driven by orders down 6.1% versus the year ago period modestly offset by AOV, which was up 4.4% year on year and down 1% sequentially, again, in line with what we would typically expect to see in the seasonal cadence moving from the second to the third quarter of the year.

這是由於訂單較去年同期下降 6.1%，但 AOV 略有抵消，AOV 同比增長 4.4%，環比下降 1%，再次符合我們通常預期的季節性節奏，從今年第二至第三季度。

Let me now continue to walk down the P&L.

現在讓我繼續了解損益表。

As I do, please note that the remaining financials include depreciation and amortization, but exclude equity-based compensation, related taxes, and other adjustments.

請注意，其餘財務資料包括折舊和攤銷，但不包括股權薪資、相關稅金和其他調整。

I will use the same basis when discussing our outlook as well.

在討論我們的前景時，我也會使用相同的基礎。

Gross margin for the quarter was 30.3% of net revenue.

該季度毛利率佔淨收入的 30.3%。

Back in August, we talked at length about the changing dynamics we have seen in customer price sensitivity and the opportunity we identify to lean and on take rates to drive incremental order capture.

早在八月，我們就詳細討論了我們在客戶價格敏感度方面看到的動態變化，以及我們發現的精益和採取率以推動增量訂單捕獲的機會。

We heard many questions from investors around how this differs from funding promotions.

我們聽到投資人提出很多問題，詢問這與融資促銷有何不同。

So let me take a moment to address that because the answer fundamentally comes down to magnitude.

因此，讓我花點時間來解決這個問題，因為答案從根本上歸結為大小。

For years now, we've seen robust interest by suppliers to participate in promotional events, where you'll see headline items at prices that are 20%, 30% off or more.

多年來，我們發現供應商對參加促銷活動表現出濃厚的興趣，在促銷活動中您會看到頭條商品的價格有 20%、30% 甚至更多折扣。

These discounts are aligned in partnership with our suppliers and are funded through a reduction in their wholesale price, which we then reflect by lowering retail, while our gross margin remains resilient throughout.

這些折扣是與我們的供應商合作進行的，並透過降低批發價格來提供資金，然後我們透過降低零售價格來反映這一點，而我們的毛利率始終保持彈性。

That's part of the reason why we've been happy to ramp up the number of promotional events and grow existing events like we did with Way Day last month.

這就是為什麼我們很高興增加促銷活動的數量並增加現有活動的部分原因，就像我們上個月在 Way Day 所做的那樣。

Promotion remains a critical marketing tool to drive customer engagement at a moment in time when the focus is just not centered on the home, and supplier demand to participate in promotions remains quite high.

當焦點不再集中在家居上且供應商參與促銷活動的需求仍然很高時，促銷仍然是推動客戶參與的重要行銷工具。

Now when we talk about making our own investment into lower take rates, the scale is very different from the discounting you'll see from suppliers and promotion.

現在，當我們談論自己投資以降低接受率時，其規模與您從供應商和促銷中看到的折扣有很大不同。

The magnitude of the investment here is in the tens of basis points at the consolidated level, hence, targeting gross margin in the lower half of our 30% to 31% range.

這裡的投資規模在綜合水準上為數十個基點，因此，毛利率目標為 30% 至 31% 範圍的下半部。

Across our nearly 10 million orders per quarter, we're able to collect a tremendous amount of data on price elasticity and with a highly tuned degree of precision, determine exactly which classes and geographies would see an order lift from a very modest reduction in the take rate.

在每季近 1000 萬個訂單中，我們能夠收集大量有關價格彈性的數據，並以高度調整的精確度，準確確定哪些類別和地區的訂單會因訂單量的小幅減少而增加。

As we've said for some time, it's considerably more valuable to multi-quarter gross profit and adjusted EBITDA dollars to have an incremental order come in at a gross margin in the low end of that range they miss out on that order because we were keeping our gross margins at the top end.

正如我們一段時間以來所說的那樣，對於多季度毛利潤和調整後的 EBITDA 美元來說，以毛利率處於該範圍低端的增量訂單更有價值，他們錯過了該訂單，因為我們將我們的毛利率維持在最高水準。

We're pleased with the results we're seeing so far as we've made this price investment, and you should expect that this will continue as we exit this year and enter 2025.

我們對迄今為止所看到的價格投資結果感到滿意，您應該預計，隨著我們今年退出並進入 2025 年，這種情況將繼續下去。

Of course, the other question we hear from investors is why make this investment if you still are seeing orders and revenue contract year over year.

當然，我們從投資者那裡聽到的另一個問題是，如果您仍然看到訂單和收入逐年收縮，為什麼還要進行這項投資。

Our response to that is to once more point to the share picture.

我們對此的回應是再次指向分享圖片。

As Niraj said earlier, our ability to outpace growth of the category while still driving a strong margin profile for the business allows us to capture share now and sets us up for significant strength when customers begin to shop for the home in a more robust fashion once more.

正如Niraj 早些時候所說，我們有能力超越該類別的成長，同時仍為該業務帶來強勁的利潤率，這使我們能夠立即佔領市場份額，並在客戶開始以更強勁的方式購買房屋時為我們奠定強大的實力更多的。

Now, moving further down the P&L.

現在，進一步降低損益表。

Customer service and merchant fees were 3.7% of net revenue, while advertising was 12.3%.

客戶服務和商家費用佔淨收入的 3.7%，廣告費佔 12.3%。

That was slightly higher than where our advertising margin had been in recent quarters as a result of the renewed investment opportunities Niraj outlined.

由於 Niraj 概述的新投資機會，我們的廣告利潤率略高於最近幾季的水平。

We're excited for the major unlocks we are seeing across the advertising funnel but are keeping a steady hand on the wheel as we ensure that each dollar is spent with strict adherence to our payback windows.

我們對在廣告管道中看到的重大解鎖感到興奮，但我們會保持穩定的控制，確保每一美元都嚴格遵守我們的投資回收期。

Our selling, operations, technology, general, and administrative expenses totaled $388 million in the third quarter, a more than $70 million improvement versus the third quarter last year and $274 million improvement on a trailing 12-month basis.

第三季我們的銷售、營運、技術、一般和管理費用總計 3.88 億美元，比去年第三季減少了 7,000 萬美元以上，比過去 12 個月減少了 2.74 億美元。

As I talked about investing in gross margin and advertising earlier, those of you who have followed Wayfair for years may have had flashbacks to our history of investment cycle at the expense of profitability.

正如我之前談到的毛利率和廣告投資，那些關注 Wayfair 多年的人可能會回想起我們以犧牲盈利能力為代價的投資週期的歷史。

What we've made clear over the past two years is that Wayfair is now fundamentally a different company than we were in the past.

過去兩年我們已經明確表示，Wayfair 現在與過去相比已經是一家根本不同的公司。

We are at a level of scale and maturity where we can both invest for growth and drive profitability at the same time.

我們的規模和成熟度足以讓我們既可以投資促進成長，又可以同時提高獲利能力。

So when I talk about compressing take rates or leaning into advertising due to their quick payback, you can see that we are funding these investments through further discipline as we manage our fixed cost base.

因此，當我談到壓縮收視率或由於廣告的快速回報而傾向於廣告時，您可以看到，在我們管理固定成本基礎時，我們正在透過進一步的紀律為這些投資提供資金。

A paradigm, we will continue to uphold.

一個典範，我們將繼續秉承。

Ultimately, we are focused on growing adjusted EBITDA, less CapEx and equity-based compensation measured in dollars.

最終，我們專注於成長調整後的 EBITDA，減少資本支出和以美元衡量的基於股權的薪酬。

Our plans that are underway are progressing well, and this is part of why we are comfortable committing to 2025 adjusted EBITDA dollars being higher than 2024.

我們正在進行的計劃進展順利，這也是我們願意承諾 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 高於 2024 年的部分原因。

Altogether, we generated $119 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter for a margin of 4.1% of net revenue.

第三季我們總共產生了 1.19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率為淨收入的 4.1%。

As Niraj mentioned earlier, this was our second consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin, and we have now proven that we can operate at this level despite year-over-year revenue contraction.

正如 Niraj 之前提到的，這是我們連續第二個季度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為中個位數，而且我們現在已經證明，儘管收入同比收縮，我們仍然可以在這個水平上運作。

We ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of cash and equivalents and $1.9 billion of total liquidity when factoring in our undrawn revolving credit facility.

考慮到未提取的循環信貸額度，本季末我們的現金及等價物為 13 億美元，流動性總額為 19 億美元。

This was, of course, before we bolstered our cash balance further with the close of our inaugural high-yield debt offering in early October.

當然，這是在我們於 10 月初完成首次高收益債券發行以進一步增強現金餘額之前的情況。

We saw investor demand many times larger than the $800 million that we raised, which was a testament to the tremendous work we've done on driving profitability across the business.

我們看到投資者的需求比我們籌集的 8 億美元大很多倍，這證明了我們在提高整個業務盈利能力方面所做的巨大工作。

With the rapid improvement in our financial profile and movement across rates and credit spreads, we saw this as an opportune time to de-risk the balance sheet by effectively prefunding our upcoming convertible maturities in 2025.

隨著我們財務狀況的迅速改善以及利率和信用利差的變動，我們認為這是透過有效地為即將到來的 2025 年可轉換債券提前融資來降低資產負債表風險的最佳時機。

As I've said from the beginning of the year, we are laser-focused on de-levering the business over the years to come, and we will use these proceeds in combination with our own free cash flow generation to handle our coming obligations.

正如我從今年年初所說的那樣，我們將在未來幾年集中精力去槓桿化業務，我們將利用這些收益與我們自己的自由現金流生成相結合來處理我們未來的債務。

Now, rounding out the cash flow statement.

現在，完善現金流量表。

Cash from operations was $49 million in the third quarter, offset by capital expenditures of $58 million.

第三季營運現金為 4,900 萬美元，被 5,800 萬美元的資本支出所抵銷。

This CapEx was a bit lower than our guided range due to a combination of timing and further expense rigidity on our part.

由於時間安排和我們進一步的費用剛性，此資本支出略低於我們的指導範圍。

So while there will be some catchup in Q4, the net will still be lower than the run rate or Q3 guide implied.

因此，雖然第四季會有一些追趕，但淨值仍將低於隱含的運行率或第三季指南。

The end result was free cash flow of negative $9 million in the third quarter.

最終結果是第三季自由現金流為負 900 萬美元。

Let's now turn to the fourth-quarter guidance as we round out the year.

現在讓我們來看看今年即將結束時的第四季指引。

Beginning with the top line, quarter to date, we are flat to down slightly year over year and expect to end the full quarter down in the low-single-digit range.

從營收開始，本季迄今為止，我們的營收同比持平甚至略有下降，預計整個季度的營收將保持在較低的個位數範圍內。

This contemplates sequential seasonality in line with what we saw last year.

這考慮了與我們去年看到的連續季節性有關的情況。

While we're pleased with the strength we saw on Way Day and are excited for the holiday season ahead, we're also cognizant that the weakness in the category on top of all the distractions facing consumers right now create a challenging operating environment.

雖然我們對在Way Day 上看到的實力感到滿意，並對即將到來的假期季節感到興奮，但我們也認識到，除了消費者目前面臨的所有乾擾之外，該類別的弱點創造了一個充滿挑戰的營運環境。

Turning to gross margin, we would guide you to the lower end of the 30% to 31% range once again as we continue to lean in on take rates in the strategic areas where we see valuable payoffs in order capture, Customer service and merchant fees should be just below 4% again as well.

談到毛利率，我們將再次引導您達到 30% 至 31% 範圍的下限，因為我們繼續依靠策略領域的獲取率，在這些領域，我們在訂單捕獲、客戶服務和商家費用方面看到了寶貴的回報也應該再低於4%。

Advertising should end up in a range of 12% to 13% of net revenue and likely towards the upper end of this range.

廣告最終應佔淨收入的 12% 至 13%，並且很可能接近該範圍的上限。

This is higher than in the past few quarters, as we see clear demonstrable evidence of high-value opportunities to lean in here to drive further share capture as we get into 2025.

這一數字高於過去幾個季度，因為我們看到了明顯的證據，表明進入 2025 年時，這裡存在著高價值機會，可以進一步推動市場份額的獲取。

It's important to bear in mind that many of the dollars spent today are driving order capture in the next few quarters.

重要的是要記住，今天花費的許多美元將推動未來幾季的訂單獲取。

Finally, SOTG&A should fall in the $400 million to $410 million range.

最後，SOTG&A 應該在 4 億至 4.1 億美元之間。

We saw some spending that had been planned for the third quarter shift to Q4.

我們看到原計劃在第三季進行的一些支出轉移到了第四季。

So there's a slight normalization here as you think about the sequential trend.

因此，當您考慮連續趨勢時，這裡會出現輕微的標準化。

Following this guidance down the P&L would lead to a fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in the 2% to 4% range.

依照這項指引，損益表將導致第四季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 2% 至 4% 範圍內。

Even with a challenging top line environment, this puts us right in line with the commitment we made to drive at least 50% growth in 2024 adjusted EBITDA dollars, which is a testament to our steadfast focus on cost efficiency.

即使面臨充滿挑戰的營收環境，這也使我們能夠兌現我們所做的承諾，即推動 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 美元增長至少 50%，這證明了我們對成本效率的堅定關注。

Now, let me touch on a few housekeeping items.

現在，讓我談談一些家務用品。

You should expect equity-based compensation and related taxes of roughly $90 million to $110 million, depreciation and amortization of approximately $90 million to $95 million, net interest expense of approximately $14 million, weighted average shares outstanding of approximately $125 million, and CapEx in a $60 million to $70 million range.

您預計股權薪酬和相關稅費約為9,000 萬至1.1 億美元，折舊和攤提約9,000 萬至9,500 萬美元，淨利息支出約1,400 萬美元，加權平均已發行股票約1.25 億美元，資本支出約1.25 億美元。

Layering this on top of the expectations for adjusted EBITDA and the working capital benefit with revenue up sequentially in the fourth quarter, we would expect healthy free cash flow generation to round out the year.

再加上調整後的 EBITDA 和營運資本收益以及第四季度收入連續增長的預期，我們預計全年將產生健康的自由現金流。

I want to make sure investors appreciate just how unique 2024 has been in the context of Wayfair's long history.

我希望確保投資者認識到 2024 年在 Wayfair 悠久的歷史背景下是多麼獨特。

We spent many years post our IPO focused primarily on growth and then over the past several years, appropriately pivoted to prioritize profitability. 2024 has marked a return to the pre-IPO form of this business, balancing the dual mandate of driving progress on both the top and bottom line, and there is more to come in 2025.

在首次公開募股後，我們花了很多年時間主要關注成長，然後在過去幾年中，適當地轉向優先考慮獲利能力。 2024 年標誌著該業務回歸到 IPO 前的形式，平衡了推動營收和利潤成長的雙重使命，2025 年將有更多的事情發生。

As we close out the year, I want to draw back to Niraj and Steve's remarks from their shareholder letter from February.

在我們結束這一年之際，我想回顧一下尼拉吉和史蒂夫在二月股東信中的言論。

Our mission is to make Wayfair as the best place to shop for the home over not just the next quarter or a year but the next decade and beyond.

我們的使命是使 Wayfair 成為購買房屋的最佳場所，不僅是在下一個季度或一年，而且是在下一個十年甚至更長的時間內。

We believe the best is yet to come and have never been more excited to execute against the tremendous opportunity in front of us.

我們相信最好的尚未到來，我們從未如此興奮地抓住我們面前的巨大機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And now Niraj, Steve, and I will take your questions.

現在尼拉吉、史蒂夫和我將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ygal Arounian, Citi.

（操作員指令）Ygal Arounian，花旗銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Maybe just first on the share gain that you're seeing.

也許首先是您所看到的份額收益。

If you can, I don't know, quantify or qualify that a little bit more?

我不知道，您是否可以進一步量化或限定這一點？

Is it -- do you see it all coming from the pricing that you can deliver the other factors that you're seeing?

您是否認為這一切都來自於您可以提供您所看到的其他因素的定價？

And how do we think about that as the market gets better as you're positioning for that?

當市場變得更好並且你對此進行定位時，我們如何看待這一點？

And then on the 2025 EBITDA commentary, any more color we can get around that, the level of confidence you talked about the mid-teens incremental EBITDA margins?

然後，關於 2025 年 EBITDA 評論，我們還能得到更多的色彩嗎？

Just how do we think about that in a category that maybe doesn't improve as we work our way through the beginning of next year, at least?

至少在明年初，我們如何看待這個可能不會改善的類別？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the questions, Ygal.

謝謝你的提問，伊加爾。

I mean, let me run through them, and then Kate, if there's anything you want to add, Kate, you can jump in.

我的意思是，讓我瀏覽一下它們，然後凱特，如果你想補充什麼，凱特，你可以加入。

So on the first one around the share gain we're seeing.

因此，在我們看到的第一個關於份額成長的問題上。

So I would say since the end of 2022, since the fourth quarter of 2022, we've kind of consistently seen ourselves gaining market share every quarter, hitting all-time highs in the credit card panels that we get on market share.

因此，我想說，自 2022 年底、2022 年第四季以來，我們每季都在不斷獲得市場份額，在信用卡面板市佔率上創下歷史新高。

And in terms of how we're doing it, you mentioned pricing, and I'd say, optimizing our pricing to maximize our profit dollars is certainly one thing.

就我們的做法而言，您提到了定價，我想說，優化我們的定價以最大化我們的利潤肯定是一回事。

Again, we didn't really change pricing that much, so I just want to quantify that, right?

再說一次，我們並沒有真正改變定價那麼多，所以我只是想量化一下，對吧？

That was low-tens of basis points.

那是低數十個基點。

But that's just the kind of an ongoing optimization we do on the demand elasticity to maximize our position there.

但這只是我們對需求彈性的持續優化，以最大化我們在那裡的地位。

But that's just one of many things.

但這只是眾多事情之一。

So we talked about pricing, but for example, we can talk about improvements we've made in our logistics network.

因此，我們討論了定價，但例如，我們可以討論我們在物流網絡中所做的改進。

Like, for example, on our prior calls, we talked about consolidated delivery, which is right now live in Houston, Las Vegas.

例如，在我們之前的電話中，我們談到了整合交付，目前該服務已在拉斯維加斯休士頓上線。

We're rolling that out nationally or we've done a whole series of kind of logistics features and functionality that increases speed, increases customer service levels.

我們正在全國推廣，或者我們已經完成了一系列物流特性和功能，以提高速度，提高客戶服務水準。

That grows the business.

這會促進業務發展。

So on our website, our apps, what we call our storefront experience.

所以在我們的網站、我們的應用程式上，我們稱之為店面體驗。

That's a team that had spent a lot of the last couple of years working on replatforming big pieces of the technology.

這個團隊在過去幾年中花了很多時間致力於重新建構重大技術平台。

But as they've done that now, the developer [boss] sees much faster, the feature function we can roll out and optimize is back to a very high rate, and we're seeing gains from that.

但正如他們現在所做的那樣，開發人員[老闆]看到的速度要快得多，我們可以推出和優化的功能又回到了非常高的速度，我們正在從中看到收益。

So the way we can kind of take market share is actually through a long list of things we can do to improve the customer experience, drive up conversion, gain customer reach, optimize the outcomes we're getting.

因此，我們獲得市場份額的方式實際上是透過一系列我們可以採取的措施來改善客戶體驗、提高轉換率、擴大客戶範圍、優化我們所獲得的結果。

And so when we look to 2025, we see a lot of ways to continue to grow market share regardless of whether the macroeconomy in this category is something that's getting better or not.

因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們看到有很多方法可以繼續增加市場份額，無論該類別的宏觀經濟是否有改善。

So we're not counting on that.

所以我們不指望這一點。

We know it's a cyclical category.

我們知道這是一個週期性類別。

We know that consumer discretionary durables are under a lot of pressure now.

我們知道，非必需消費品耐用品現在面臨著很大的壓力。

That is where we play.

那就是我們玩的地方。

Despite that, we see a pretty good outlook for how we're going to grow on the back of taking market share.

儘管如此，我們仍看到了在佔領市場份額的基礎上實現成長的良好前景。

And then for the 2025 EBITDA, the way to think about the 2025 EBITDA is what we said is, we see 2025 EBITDA dollars being higher than 2024 EBITDA dollars because of the ongoing road map we have around what we can do around market share as I just described and kind of scale our business that way, while we also continue to have a good cost road map.

然後對於2025 年EBITDA，思考2025 年EBITDA 的方式就是我們所說的，我們看到2025 年EBITDA 美元高於2024 年EBITDA 美元，因為我們圍繞市場份額可以做的事情正在進行的路線圖，正如我所言剛才描述並以這種方式擴展我們的業務，同時我們也繼續擁有良好的成本路線圖。

And as you've seen on that SOTG&A line, for example, I don't know if -- I forgot the number, is eight or nine quarters in a row, you've seen that come down in dollars.

例如，正如您在 SOTG&A 線上看到的那樣，我不知道是否 - 我忘記了數字，是否連續八個或九個季度，您已經看到美元的下降。

And that's just us being very smart about how we're spending money and continue to find ways to optimize that.

這只是我們對如何花錢非常聰明，並繼續尋找優化方法。

But Kate, let me just turn it over to you.

但是凱特，讓我把它交給你。

Yeah.

是的。

I just want to jump in to clarify.

我只是想介入澄清一下。

Obviously, we haven't given any 2025 guidance, and we don't typically give annual guidance.

顯然，我們沒有給出任何 2025 年指導，而且我們通常不會給出年度指導。

But all we have said to 2025 is exactly as Niraj said, which is we are focused on growing adjusted EBITDA dollars.

但我們所說的到 2025 年正如 Niraj 所說，我們的重點是增加調整後的 EBITDA 美元。

And that continues to be our focus and commitment, and we can do that through the combination of the cost discipline that you've seen us execute on over the last few years and the investments that we're making now to grow revenue.

這仍然是我們的重點和承諾，我們可以透過結合過去幾年我們執行的成本紀律和我們現在為增加收入而進行的投資來做到這一點。

And so that revenue growth, which we see come in on this multi-quarter basis, on a positive front from adjusted EBITDA dollars will help us grow adjusted EBITDA dollars in combination with that cost discipline.

因此，我們在多個季度的基礎上看到的收入成長，在調整後的 EBITDA 美元的正面影響下，將有助於我們結合成本紀律來成長調整後的 EBITDA 美元。

Niraj referenced how that's showing up on that SOTG&A line.

Niraj 提到了 SOTG&A 系列中的情況。

All right.

好的。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.

克里斯多福‧霍弗斯，摩根大通。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

So my first question is you're -- in the fourth-quarter revenue guide, you're assuming some modest slowdown in revenue growth in the balance of the quarter, parsing a little bit here, but flat to low-single digits quarter to date, versus down low-single digits.

所以我的第一個問題是，在第四季度的收入指南中，您假設本季度剩餘時間的收入增長略有放緩，在這裡進行了一些分析，但季度至低個位數持平至低個位數日期，而不是低個位數。

You also mentioned pre-election deferrals.

您也提到了選舉前的延期。

So can you bring that all together for us why wouldn't trends get better if consumers are slowing into election and pushing the holiday sales later into the quarter?

那麼，您能否為我們總結一下，如果消費者在選舉中放慢腳步並將假期銷售推到本季度晚些時候，為什麼趨勢不會變得更好呢？

Yeah, Chris.

是的，克里斯。

So I think on that, you've got -- you got the election coming up.

所以我認為，選舉即將到來。

That's something that may or may not really be determined in one day.

這可能會或可能不會在一天之內真正確定。

That could take a little bit of time.

這可能需要一點時間。

We've got a calendar or the number of days that you're talking about kind of in the holiday season is a little shorter and you have what's been a challenging macro.

我們有一個日曆，或者你所說的假期天數有點短，而且你有一個具有挑戰性的宏觀。

So you have a bunch of uncertainty.

所以你有很多不確定性。

So we feel very good about how we can continue to take share.

因此，我們對如何繼續分享份額感到非常滿意。

But you're kind of looking forward to the quarter and you still have a lot of the revenue yet to come and you have some of these uncertainties, you're trying to like figure out where you think you're going to be.

但你對這個季度充滿期待，你仍然有很多收入尚未到來，你有一些不確定性，你試圖弄清楚你認為你會在哪裡。

And I guess how significant has the -- I mean, obviously, Way Day, you purposely extended that earlier, but do you think that -- how significant is that slowdown ahead of the election versus maybe just timing shift around having a longer Way Day?

我想，我的意思是，顯然，你故意提前延長了這一天，但你認為，選舉前的放緩與可能只是圍繞更長的道路日進行時間轉變有多大意義？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, I think Way Day, we -- in hindsight, we're pretty happy with how we played that.

我的意思是，我認為，事後看來，我們對我們的表現非常滿意。

We planned for a three-day event.

我們計劃舉辦為期三天的活動。

We've built some flexibility in how we did that.

我們在如何做到這一點上建立了一定的靈活性。

And as we saw the calendar playing out, we saw a bunch of other major retailers planning a two-day sales event right after Way Day.

當我們看到日曆上的內容時，我們看到許多其他主要零售商計劃在 Way Day 後立即舉辦為期兩天的銷售活動。

We decided to take advantage of the online shopping that was going to happen over that time.

我們決定利用那段時間即將發生的線上購物。

That's certainly maximize how we did, but I don't know that, that dramatically affects when you get a week or two from how the demand is going.

這當然是最大化我們的做法，但我不知道，當你從需求的進展中得到一兩週的時間時，這會產生巨大的影響。

I think it's just the macro, it just makes it harder to predict.

我認為這只是宏觀因素，它只會讓預測變得更加困難。

I think that's basically the biggest thing I would just say when you look at the forthcoming holiday season and you're like, hey, how is this going to exactly play out?

我認為這基本上是我想說的最重要的事情，當你看到即將到來的假期時，你會想，嘿，這到底會如何發展？

You could come out with a range of possibilities that all seems plausible.

你可能會想出一系列看似合理的可能性。

Got it.

知道了。

That makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And then on the operating margin forecast for the fourth quarter, Kate, you talked about we're hitting our goal of mid-single digits.

然後，關於第四季度的營業利潤率預測，凱特，您談到我們正在實現中個位數的目標。

You did 4.1% in the third quarter, but at the same time, the midpoint of the fourth quarter guide is not mid-single digits.

第三季的成長率為 4.1%，但同時，第四季指南的中點並不是中個位數。

So I guess, to what extent does that sort of undermine the view of hitting that goal that you've sort of said you would get to and have said that you've achieved that?

所以我想，這在多大程度上破壞了你所說的你會實現並已經實現的那個目標的觀點？

And then is any of that just seasonality from a mix perspective versus timing of spending?

那麼，從混合角度與支出時間的角度來看，這些因素是否只是季節性因素？

Yeah, Chris, thanks for the question.

是的，克里斯，謝謝你的提問。

I guess the way I'd look at it is, obviously, over the last two quarters, we've proven we can operate at that mid-single digits, right?

我想我的看法是，顯然，在過去兩個季度中，我們已經證明我們可以以中位數的速度運營，對嗎？

And we've shown, I think, very nice discipline to get to that point.

我認為，為了達到這一點，我們已經表現出了非常好的紀律。

What you heard with the fourth-quarter guide is a little bit of incremental investment on that marketing spend.

您從第四季指南中聽到的是對行銷支出的一點增量投資。

And as a result, we stepped up that range a little bit.

結果，我們稍微擴大了這個範圍。

And then the net of that is that we think that, that is going to drive incremental revenue and incremental adjusted EBITDA dollars over the next few quarters.

我們認為，這將在未來幾季推動收入增量和調整後 EBITDA 增量。

So I want to be clear that bottom of the final marketing spend is a place that we are quite disciplined.

所以我想明確的是，最終行銷支出的底部是我們非常有紀律的地方。

We have very good visibility, and we feel confident in the ability of that to drive both the revenue and the adjusted EBITDA dollars.

我們擁有非常好的可見性，並且我們對其推動收入和調整後 EBITDA 美元的能力充滿信心。

And that's really where we're driving for.

這正是我們努力的方向。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Peter Keith, Piper Sandler.

彼得·基思，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

So just sticking on some of the advertising and election dynamics.

因此，只需關註一些廣告和選舉動態即可。

So you're highlighting the elevated ad spend from the stepped-up influencer marketing.

因此，您強調的是加強影響力行銷帶來的廣告支出增加。

But we're also hearing that ad rates are very high right now around the election season.

但我們也聽說，目前選舉季前後的廣告費率非常高。

So how do you think about the ad spend going forward?

那麼您如何看待未來的廣告支出？

Do you think the overall costs are going to come down as we get in further into November, December and going forward?

您認為隨著進入 11 月、12 月以及今後的時間，總體成本會下降嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

So the way to think about it is, certain parts of the ad market will definitely have elevated rates pre-election.

因此，思考這個問題的方法是，廣告市場的某些部分肯定會在選舉前提高利率。

So think about this as like local television, think of this as some of the upper funnel channels which you could use for any variety of messaging.

因此，可以將其視為本地電視，將其視為可用於任何類型訊息傳遞的一些上層漏斗頻道。

And we -- just to remind you, we're very quantitative in how we spend the money.

我們只是提醒您，我們在如何花錢方面非常量化。

So in other words, we won't chase that spend.

換句話說，我們不會追逐這筆支出。

So if it's not economic, someone else can buy that media.

因此，如果不經濟，其他人可以購買該媒體。

And of course, if it becomes economic again, and it makes sense to us, we would buy that medium.

當然，如果它再次變得經濟，並且對我們有意義，我們就會購買這種媒介。

And so that's sort of one thing.

這是一回事。

Think of that as like whether you think about influencers or separately, we're talking about some lower funnel, fast payback channels.

就像您考慮影響者或單獨考慮一樣，我們正在談論一些較低的漏斗，快速的回報管道。

Those are channels that are very narrow and specific to different types of advertising.

這些管道非常狹窄並且特定於不同類型的廣告。

And so those aren't ones where you'd find political ads.

因此，您不會在這些網站上看到政治廣告。

And so that's sort of a different segment of the advertising market.

這就是廣告市場的不同部分。

But I think the main thing to just to kind of keep in mind is that we're just very quantitative in when we're talking about the ad spend.

但我認為要記住的主要一點是，當我們談論廣告支出時，我們只是非常定量。

So we're not -- we don't really participate in anything that's not economic.

所以我們不會——我們不會真正參與任何不經濟的事情。

And yes, those channels like local television do get much cheaper after the election, but we don't really do that much in local television, for example.

是的，像地方電視台這樣的頻道在選舉後確實變得便宜得多，但例如，我們在地方電視台並沒有真正做那麼多。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then Niraj I just have a separate question for you is just on Wayfair Rewards.

Niraj 我有一個單獨的問題要問您，是關於 Wayfair Rewards 的。

So exciting to have a loyalty program out there.

擁有忠誠度計劃真是令人興奮。

I am recalling it was six or seven years ago, you did have a loyalty program called MyWay, which was ultimately disbanded.

我記得六、七年前，你們確實有一個名為 MyWay 的忠誠度計劃，但最終被解散了。

So maybe just talk about the learnings from MyWay and what's different this time that ultimately might make this new loyalty program stay?

那麼也許只是談談從 MyWay 中學到的經驗教訓以及這次的不同之處最終可能會讓這個新的忠誠度計劃留下來？

Yeah.

是的。

So I think our biggest learning from MyWay was that the kind of customer value proposition that we had associated with the program, it just wasn't that strong.

因此，我認為我們從 MyWay 中學到的最大的教訓是，我們與該計劃相關的客戶價值主張並不那麼強大。

Now, in contrast, if you think about what we're offering on Wayfair Rewards.

現在，相較之下，如果您考慮我們在 Wayfair 獎勵上提供的內容。

What I talked about on the call already, if you think about that average customer $600 a year, they're getting 5% back.

我在電話中已經談過，如果你考慮客戶平均每年 600 美元，他們會得到 5% 的回報。

That tranche of customers would be basically breakeven on the program right off the bat off their annual spend.

這部分客戶基本上在年度支出之後就可以透過該計劃實現收支平衡。

They pick up those other benefits, the members only customer service line, early access to the sale events.

他們獲得了其他好處，會員只有客戶服務熱線，可以提前參與銷售活動。

But obviously, the way it works is if you're getting rewards dollars every time you make a purchase, you have a balance you could use against your next purchase.

但顯然，它的運作方式是，如果您每次購買時都能獲得獎勵美元，那麼您就有餘額可以用於下次購買。

And that customer is already spending a few thousand dollars in home today spread across many, many retailers.

如今，該客戶已經在許多零售商的家中花費了數千美元。

So you think about that next $2,000, $3,000 that they're not spending with Wayfair, well, if they spend some of that with us, the programs have some cost for them, and they're going to get rewards on that incremental spend.

所以你想想接下來的2,000 美元、3,000 美元，他們不會在Wayfair 上花費，好吧，如果他們在我們這裡花費了一些，這些計劃對他們來說會產生一些成本，並且他們將從增量支出中獲得獎勵。

And so it has some of the basic engineering you want in a program that makes it very obvious and easy for the customer to change kind of where they choose to drive their spend.

因此，它具有您在程序中所需的一些基本工程，使客戶能夠非常明顯且輕鬆地改變他們選擇推動支出的方式。

And then there's a bunch of other benefits tied to the program that you say are not economic, but they could be exciting to consumers.

此外，還有許多與該計劃相關的其他好處，您認為這些好處並不經濟，但它們可能會讓消費者感到興奮。

So I think we've got a very good setup.

所以我認為我們已經有了一個非常好的設定。

And I don't think, in hindsight, MyWay did not have as good a set up.

事後看來，我認為 MyWay 的設定並不那麼好。

And for that reason, we didn't see the traction we wanted with that.

出於這個原因，我們沒有看到我們想要的吸引力。

Wayfair Rewards, it's new, right?

Wayfair 獎勵，這是新的，對吧？

It's only been out there for a couple of weeks.

它只出現了幾週。

But we're happy with the start-up is getting.

但我們對新創公司的發展感到滿意。

Yeah.

是的。

I would just add, you heard Niraj speak to on the call, the value of loyal customers.

我想補充一點，你聽到尼拉吉在電話中談到了忠誠客戶的價值。

And so we have a very good understanding of when someone is increasingly loyal with us the overall ROI that, that drives the customer lifetime value there.

因此，我們非常了解何時有人對我們越來越忠誠，從而推動客戶終身價值的整體投資報酬率。

And so this program is really designed at driving incrementality from folks who were getting a portion of their spend, but we know we can be getting that third and that fourth order.

因此，這個計劃的真正目的是推動那些獲得部分支出的人們的增量，但我們知道我們可以獲得第三個和第四個訂單。

And we tested the concept with customers we had good reaction.

我們與客戶測試了這個概念，我們得到了良好的回應。

So we're really excited about both how the customer perceives this value prop and what it can do for us.

因此，我們對客戶如何看待這價值支柱以及它能為我們做什麼感到非常興奮。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

西蒙古特曼，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

嗨，大家早安。

A couple of questions first.

首先有幾個問題。

On the category, home furnishings, if turnover or housing turnover picks up, I think the category would rebound.

就家居類別而言，如果營業額或房屋成交量回升，我認為該品類將會反彈。

If it doesn't, curious, what you think about pent-up demand to drive -- is that going to drive some life in the category?

如果沒有，那麼好奇，您對被壓抑的驅動需求有何看法——這會推動該類別的發展嗎？

Where do you think we are in that continuum?

您認為我們處於這個連續體的哪個位置？

Yeah.

是的。

So I think you kind of -- you're phrasing it well in the sense that obviously, if housing demand and existing home sales picks up, that's obviously highly stimulative to the category.

所以我認為你的措辭很好，顯然，如果住房需求和現有房屋銷售回升，這顯然會極大地刺激該類別。

We are seeing signs that there is pent-up demand, but how much time needs to elapse before that becomes top of mind enough to be stimulative on its own is less clear, I would say.

我們看到有跡象表明存在被壓抑的需求，但我想說，需要多長時間才能讓這種需求成為人們的首要考慮並足以起到刺激作用。

This is why -- just thinking about our strategy we've had for two years during which the market has gone down, what, 25%, but we've basically been able to take significant market share.

這就是為什麼——想想我們兩年來的策略，在這兩年裡，市場下跌了 25%，但我們基本上能夠佔據重要的市場份額。

And so we are doing far better than that.

所以我們做得比這好得多。

I think our strategy is really not counting on a rebound in the category, but it's actually calling out the fact that use rough numbers.

我認為我們的策略實際上並不是指望該品類的反彈，而是實際上用粗略的數字來呼喚一個事實。

The category was whatever, a little over $400 billion in North America, and now, it's whatever, over $300 billion in North America, it's still $300, whatever, plus billion of spend that's out there.

這個類別是隨便什麼，在北美略高於 4000 億美元，現在，不管怎樣，在北美超過 3000 億美元，它仍然是 300 美元，無論如何，加上那裡的數十億美元支出。

And we think that there's a lot of argument on why we can take share very nicely with all the things we're doing.

我們認為，關於為什麼我們可以很好地分享我們正在做的所有事情，存在著許多爭論。

And if you kind of think about that as being a long tail, very fragmented and you're increasingly seeing players who are having a harder time being differentiated in the middle, sort of losing share or going away.

如果你認為這是一條長尾，非常分散，你會越來越多地看到那些在中間很難區分的玩家，有點失去份額或離開。

You've kind of seen that from major players where they're declining a lot or there've been a handful -- most recently what (inaudible) that got more going out of business.

你已經從主要參與者身上看到了這一點，他們的業績下滑很多，或者有少數——最近（聽不清楚）有更多的公司倒閉了。

And so there's definitely things that are changing.

所以肯定有一些事情正在改變。

And I think this is the real opportunity for us.

我認為這對我們來說是真正的機會。

And yeah, of course, when the category turns, there's going to be tremendous amount of growth, too.

是的，當然，當品類發生轉變時，也會出現巨大的成長。

But it's sort of like timing that I don't think it's very easy to do, and I don't think it's really pertinent with given the strategy we have.

但這有點像時機，我認為這不是很容易做到的，而且我認為這與我們現有的策略並不真正相關。

And then a follow-up on just the construct for '25, which I know once you give a construct, we're going to ask all sorts of questions.

然後是 25 年構造的後續行動，我知道一旦你給出一個構造，我們就會問各種各樣的問題。

There's obviously a lot of room when you say EBITDA dollars north of 2024.

當你說 2024 年以北的 EBITDA 美元時，顯然還有很大的空間。

The question is, you could, let's say, that's up a couple of hundred million dollars or are you going to lean in to market share to the point where you'll just drive a modest outcome?

問題是，你可以，比方說，增加幾億美元，或者你會依靠市場份額來推動一個適度的結果？

And I'm not looking at dollars and how much it will be up year over year, but more on your posture of how much you want to lean in to take market share to just achieve that goal of growing them or actually taking market share in a more meaningful way, if that's the essence of the question?

我不是關注美元以及它會逐年上漲多少，而是更多地關注你的態度，即你想在多大程度上佔據市場份額，以實現增長市場份額或實際佔據市場份額的目標。意義的方式，如果這是問題的本質？

Yeah.

是的。

The only thing I'll say, and I'm going to turn it over to Kate too, is that those are interrelated meaning that the things you do to take market share, some of those do not have costs associated with it that's not already sunk.

我要說的唯一一件事，我也將把它交給凱特，是這些是相互關聯的，這意味著你為獲得市場份額所做的事情，其中​​一些沒有與之相關的成本。沉沒了。

Meaning like, for example, when I talk about storefront experience, that's a team of people we have on payroll.

意思是，例如，當我談論店面體驗時，這是我們薪資單上的一個團隊。

They're doing hard work every day, rolling out a lot of features.

他們每天都在努力工作，推出許多功能。

That will have an outcome that will drive market share.

這將帶來提高市場佔有率的結果。

There's no incremental cost.

沒有增量成本。

The ongoing payroll is the cost there.

持續的薪資單就是那裡的成本。

There's other things you would do, like if you talk about advertising, you have a cost associated with revenue.

您還可以做其他事情，例如如果您談論廣告，您就會產生與收入相關的成本。

But what we're seeing is we're going to do the costs associated with profit dollars that it generates.

但我們看到的是，我們將承擔與其產生的利潤相關的成本。

So those who have a very direct relationship.

所以那些有非常直接關係的人。

They're not unrelated.

他們並非毫無關係。

But let me turn it over to Kate for any clarification.

但讓我把它交給凱特來澄清一下。

Hey, Simeon.

嘿，西蒙。

Yeah, I would just reiterate, we are very focused on driving both the top and the bottom line.

是的，我只想重申，我們非常專注於推動營收和利潤。

And we believe that we can do these things in concert with each other, and we have a high degree of conviction around that.

我們相信，我們可以相互協調地完成這些事情，並且我們對此充滿信心。

So what you're hearing us say is there are select places where we have made investments and are making investments.

所以你聽到我們說的是，我們已經在一些選定的地方進行了投資，並且正在進行投資。

You obviously -- last quarter, we started to talk about that in the gross margin line.

顯然，上個季度，我們開始在毛利率方面討論這一點。

You saw how that showed up this quarter.

您已經看到了本季的情況。

We talked a little bit about the marketing spend.

我們討論了一些關於行銷支出的問題。

We are doing these things because we think that they drive incremental order growth and revenue capture.

我們正在做這些事情，因為我們認為它們可以推動增量訂單成長和收入獲取。

And ultimately, that drives adjusted EBITDA dollars growth.

最終，這將推動調整後 EBITDA 美元的成長。

And we can do that while continuing to be quite disciplined on the cost side, and you've seen that pan out over the last few years as well.

我們可以做到這一點，同時繼續在成本方面保持嚴格的紀律，而且您在過去幾年中也看到了這一點。

Niraj already mentioned that SOTG&A expense, we've taken that down nine quarters in a row.

Niraj 已經提到了 SOTG&A 費用，我們已經連續九個季度降低了該費用。

On an LTM basis, that's down over $250 million.

以 LTM 計算，減少了超過 2.5 億美元。

That's on top of the cost takeout that we took out at the end of '22 and throughout '23.

這是我們在 22 年末和 23 年全年扣除的成本之外的費用。

So you're seeing really nice discipline there where we can manage the fixed cost and you're seeing us say, hey, there are some places where we think there are pockets of opportunity to invest that will drive on a multi-quarter basis, revenue, gross profit dollars, and ultimately, adjusted EBITDA dollars.

所以你會看到非常好的紀律，我們可以管理固定成本，你會看到我們說，嘿，有些地方我們認為有一些投資機會，這些機會將在多個季度的基礎上推動，收入、毛利以及最終調整後的EBITDA 美元。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩·內格爾，奧本海默。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So I have a couple of questions.

所以我有幾個問題。

My first question on market share.

我的第一個問題是關於市場佔有率的。

So I know this has been a big topic, and you've highlighted consistently the numbers show that clearly, Wayfair in a tough environment is taking market share broadly.

所以我知道這是一個很大的話題，而且您一直強調數字表明，顯然，Wayfair 在艱難的環境中正在廣泛佔據市場份額。

The question I have is, as you look at that -- the data you have maybe closer, is there any indication that some of these more mass merchant, more value-oriented retailers or sites that are performing well in this environment, were they actually -- you're having a more difficult time taking market share there or are they potentially taking market share back from Wayfair?

我的問題是，當你看到這一點時，你可能更接近的數據是否有任何跡象表明，在這種環境中表現良好的一些更大規模的商家、更注重價值的零售商或網站，他們實際上是-- 你們在奪取市場份額方面遇到了更大的困難，還是他們有可能從 Wayfair 奪回市場份額？

Yeah.

是的。

I guess just to clarify what I would say, so it's a large and fragmented market.

我想只是為了澄清我要說的話，所以這是一個龐大而分散的市場。

There's quite a few people losing share.

有相當多的人失去了份額。

But just to clarify, we're not the only one winning share.

但需要澄清的是，我們並不是唯一獲得份額的公司。

And so two other folks have highlighted, who I think have done a very good job also over the last few years.

另外兩個人也強調了這一點，我認為他們在過去幾年中也做得非常好。

One is Amazon.

其中之一是亞馬遜。

Now, they played at the kind of opening price point commodity items is really where they specialize, but they've done a good job.

現在，他們在開盤價點上玩商品，這確實是他們的專長，但他們做得很好。

Another one is HomeGoods, who's purely brick-and-mortar, and they really play in sort of the decorative accents, the core textile space, lower ticket items, but they've both been taking market share.

另一個是HomeGoods，它是純粹的實體店，他們確實在裝飾性口音、核心紡織品空間、低價商品方面發揮作用，但他們都在佔據市場份額。

So there's a handful of folks who are doing well.

所以有一小部分人做得很好。

Much longer list of folks who are not doing well.

做得不好的人的名單更長。

And that's kind of the landscape.

這就是風景。

And so I wouldn't say that we expect to be the only winner.

所以我不會說我們希望成為唯一的贏家。

But I think there's actually kind of only a handful of winners and quite a few folks who are on the other side.

但我認為實際上只有少數勝利者和相當多的人站在另一邊。

That's helpful, Niraj.

這很有幫助，尼拉吉。

And then my second question, Kate it's probably more for you, but again, you've done a great job taking your cost infrastructure down, controlling costs a bit this top-line weakness.

然後我的第二個問題，凱特，這可能更適合你，但同樣，你在降低基礎設施成本方面做得很好，控制了成本這個頂線弱點。

But as we look into 2025, and still the top line there is still somewhat of a wildcard.

但當我們展望 2025 年時，頂線仍然存在某種不確定性。

But I guess the question is, as you look at your cost infrastructure, how much incremental opportunity is to take costs down further?

但我想問題是，當你審視你的成本基礎設施時，有多少增加機會可以進一步降低成本？

And then philosophically, if sales were to stay weaker, are you looking to take more cost down?

然後從哲學上講，如果銷售持續疲軟，您是否希望進一步降低成本？

Or at that point, start to prepare for the eventual recovery in sales and kind of keep the cost of structure in place?

或者在那時，開始為銷售的最終復甦做好準備，並保持結構成本不變？

Yeah.

是的。

Great question.

很好的問題。

So first, let me just start with how we look at the cost efficiency and the cost opportunity.

首先，讓我先談談我們如何看待成本效率和成本機會。

You've seen us focus sort of up and down the P&L on cost.

您已經看到我們在損益表上上下關注成本。

Obviously, the place where you see that continuing to show up is on that off-ex expense SOTG&A, although we've also seen nice discipline, for example, on the CapEx expense.

顯然，你看到繼續出現的地方是非除權費用 SOTG&A，儘管我們也看到了很好的紀律，例如在資本支出費用方面。

And as we're driving towards our sort of ultimate goal of growing adjusted EBITDA dollars less the CapEx, less the equity-based compensation, where you've also seen nice gains from a cost control perspective.

當我們正在努力實現我們的最終目標時，即增加調整後的 EBITDA 美元，減去資本支出，減去基於股權的薪酬，從成本控制的角度來看，您也看到了不錯的收益。

You're seeing that sort of combination of those three continuing to improve.

你會看到這三者的結合正在不斷改進。

So as we look at it, we do see ongoing opportunity for efficiency.

因此，當我們審視它時，我們確實看到了持續的提高效率的機會。

You've seen us do in the restructuring in the past and then you've seen ongoing tightening on a quarterly basis on that SOTG&A line.

您已經看到我們過去在重組中所做的事情，然後您也看到了 SOTG&A 線每季持續緊縮。

And as a reminder, that line is not just labor, right?

提醒一下，這條線不只是勞動力，對吧？

That's labor, but it's also P&E, it's R&O, it's some overhead, it's some software expense.

這是勞動力，但也是 P&E、R&O、一些管理費用、一些軟體費用。

You're seeing us be really disciplined in all of these pockets as well as CapEx, equity-based compensation, et cetera.

你會看到我們在所有這些領域以及資本支出、基於股權的薪酬等方面都非常嚴格。

So when we look at it, yes, we see ongoing places for tightening and places to be quite thoughtful.

因此，當我們審視它時，是的，我們看到了持續收緊的地方和需要深思熟慮的地方。

And as we think about a '25, again, what I will say and reiterate is we are very focused on growing those adjusted EBITDA dollars.

當我們再次考慮 25 世紀時，我要說並重申的是，我們非常專注於增加調整後的 EBITDA 美元。

So we intend to balance things appropriately to continue to drive that.

因此，我們打算適當地平衡一切，以繼續推動這一目標。

And that in combination with CapEx equity-based compensation so that adjusted EBITDA less CapEx less equity-based compensation continues to improve.

與資本支出股權薪酬結合，調整後的 EBITDA 減去資本支出減去股權薪酬持續改善。

So it's very helpful.

所以這非常有幫助。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.

柯蒂斯‧內格爾，美國銀行。

Thank you very much for taking the question.

非常感謝您提出問題。

I guess the first one just on the AOV came in above expectations, but pointed to high price elasticity and press for small versus large ticket items.

我猜 AOV 上的第一個結果超出了預期，但指出了高價格彈性以及小票商品與大票商品的壓力。

So just curious what drove the better expected and higher AOV in 3Q?

所以只是好奇是什麼推動了第三季更好的預期和更高的 AOV？

Yeah.

是的。

Curtis, I think the way to think about AOV.

Curtis，我想談談 AOV 的思考方式。

AOV is really an output metric, right?

AOV確實是一個輸出指標，對吧？

So if you think about our business, we're doing a lot, for example, to sell lower ticket items.

因此，如果您考慮我們的業務，您會發現我們正在做很多事情，例如，銷售低價商品。

When we talk about like the frequency agenda and what we're doing with housewares item, decorative accents and one of the benefits in Wayfair Rewards, for example, is free shipping on every order.

例如，當我們談論頻率議程以及我們對家居用品、裝飾性配件和 Wayfair Rewards 的好處之一時所做的事情時，每個訂單均可免費送貨。

And you'll say, oh, that will decrease AOV.

你會說，哦，這會降低 AOV。

But then we have a luxury platform, Perigold, that's actually growing at a very nice rate and say, oh, that's going to increase AOV.

但我們有一個奢侈品平台 Perigold，它實際上正在以非常好的速度增長，並說，哦，這會增加 AOV。

And so we're doing a whole variety of things that -- our real goal is to grow the dollars per customer per year.

因此，我們正在做各種各樣的事情——我們的真正目標是每年增加每個客戶的收入。

So the way we think about getting market share as we think about market share as more customers and those customers each spending more with us.

因此，我們考慮獲得市場份額的方式就像我們考慮隨著更多客戶以及這些客戶在我們身上花費更多而獲得市場份額一樣。

And an outcome of that is obviously a number of orders, times AOV is the revenue.

結果顯然是訂單數量，乘以 AOV 就是收入。

But again, because our strategy is not around low kit orders or high ticket orders, AOV is an outcome metric of the combination of things we do.

但同樣，因為我們的策略不是圍繞低套件訂單或高門票訂單，AOV 是我們所做的事情組合的結果指標。

And so I would say AOV is kind of like a pertinent topic when you're talking about inflation of like-for-like items or deflation of like-for-like items, meaning your second quintile price for beds.

所以我想說，當你談論同類商品的通貨膨脹或同類商品的通貨緊縮時，AOV 有點像一個相關的話題，這意味著床的第二個五分位數價格。

Is that moving?

那是在動嗎？

But that's not really what's happening right now.

但現在的情況並非如此。

All that inflation with COVID and the ocean freight rates, then there was a deep cycle of deflation of that coming back out, that's all behind us right now.

新冠疫情和海運費導致的所有通貨膨脹，然後又出現了一個深度的通貨緊縮週期，現在這一切都已經過去了。

And so this AOV is more -- these moves are more an output metric of the seasonality and us executing the business on all the dimensions we talked about.

因此，這個 AOV 更多的是——這些舉措更多的是季節性的產出指標，以及我們在我們討論的所有維度上執行業務的指標。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Then just would love to ask a question on tariffs.

然後只是想問一個關於關稅的問題。

Yes, I mean, effectively just kind of how we should think about the framework, if we were to go to 50% or 60%.

是的，我的意思是，如果我們要達到 50% 或 60%，那麼實際上我們應該如何思考框架。

I think last you spoke and it was a while ago, China exposure about 50%.

我想您上次發言是在不久前，中國的曝光度約為 50%。

So in terms of just kind of the implications on revenue and margins, how the industry reacts, right?

那麼就收入和利潤率的影響而言，行業的反應如何，對吧？

I mean, pricing is probably harder to push and capacity that moves right out of China might be lower.

我的意思是，定價可能更難推動，而且直接從中國轉移出去的產能可能會更低。

So just kind of piecing all that together and maybe an update on what your exposure is at the moment would be incredibly helpful.

因此，將所有這些整合在一起，也許更新您目前的暴露情況將會非常有幫助。

Niraj, let me give some thoughts on this, and then I'll hand it over to you.

Niraj，讓我對此提出一些想法，然後我將其交給您。

This is Steve.

這是史蒂夫。

So yes, tariffs are something we've certainly seen over the history of this business and seen antidumping and we've seen tariffs.

所以，是的，關稅是我們在這個行業的歷史上肯定看到的東西，也看到反傾銷，我們也看到過關稅。

And they certainly can have an impact.

它們肯定會產生影響。

I would say, on the one side, we're running a marketplace.

我想說，一方面，我們正在經營一個市場。

And so we really have selection across the broad spectrum of suppliers, and that allows our customers to see a lot of options for products they have and swap in different things.

因此，我們確實擁有廣泛的供應商選擇，這使我們的客戶能夠看到他們擁有的產品的多種選擇，並可以交換不同的東西。

And so we're able to sort of move demand around in that regard.

因此，我們能夠在這方面轉移需求。

We certainly had some practice now navigating tariffs.

我們現在確實在關稅方面有一些實踐。

And so I think when we look out in the future and certainly, it's uncertain exactly how that might play out.

因此，我認為，當我們展望未來時，當然，不確定具體情況會如何發展。

We feel much better about the playbook, we will run and the approach we will take to help consumers buffer whatever price increases they may see selectively and certainly imported products.

我們對這個劇本感覺好多了，我們將運行以及我們將採取的方法來幫助消費者緩衝他們可能選擇性地看到的進口產品的任何價格上漲。

The other side of it is our suppliers are obviously more directly impacted deeper than we are.

另一方面是我們的供應商顯然比我們受到更直接的影響。

And so they've been working over the last year or two here to just to modify their businesses so that they don't have single-source problem as quite as much as they have in the past.

因此，他們在過去一兩年裡一直在這裡努力修改他們的業務，這樣他們就不會像過去那樣遇到單一來源的問題。

And so I think the combination of all those, we think will buffer this as best as we can.

所以我認為所有這些的結合，我們認為將盡可能地緩衝這一點。

And should be very navigable.

並且應該非常易於導航。

Yeah.

是的。

The only thing I would mention, though, too.

不過，我唯一要提的是。

So in the five years, there's some antidumping thing that happen in like wood, some specific categories of wood goods, certain factories from China, which happened years and years ago.

因此，在這五年裡，發生了一些反傾銷事件，例如木材、某些特定類別的木製品、來自中國的某些工廠，這些事情發生在很多年前。

But then really the notable things were in the tariffs during the first Trump administration where we got the 10% and then 25%.

但真正值得注意的是川普第一屆政府期間的關稅，我們先是提高了 10%，然後是 25%。

Well, ever since then, and that was for goods from China in our categories, ever since then, what you've really seen happen is there's been a lot of suppliers who built manufacturing capabilities in Cambodia and Vietnam and Malaysia, Indonesia, other places, so that they actually have more control over their future should the tariff landscape change, et cetera.

嗯，從那時起，這是我們類別中來自中國的商品，從那時起，你真正看到的情況是，有很多供應商在柬埔寨、越南、馬來西亞、印尼等地建立了製造能力，這樣，如果關稅格局發生變化等，他們實際上可以更好地控制自己的未來。

So I would say that the industry now is much more cognizant of that risk than they were five years ago.

所以我想說，現在的行業比五年前更認識到這種風險。

And so I think we have kind of a couple of benefits going for us.

所以我認為我們有一些好處。

One is that the industry is definitely in a different position than it was five years ago.

一是這個行業的處境肯定與五年前不同。

The second is, as Steve mentioned, we have 20,000-plus suppliers, and we have domestic suppliers.

第二個是，正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們有20,000多家供應商，而且我們有國內供應商。

We have import suppliers, our suppliers make goods in Brazil.

我們有進口供應商，我們的供應商在巴西生產商品。

We have suppliers who make goods in Eastern Europe.

我們有在東歐生產商品的供應商。

So we have suppliers that are quite different from one another.

因此，我們的供應商彼此之間有很大不同。

And so we have the benefit of how they compete on our platform for the customer.

因此，我們可以從他們在我們的平台上為客戶競爭的方式中受益。

So yeah, I think you never know quite what's going to happen, but I would say that, that's certainly a topic that folks have been thinking about and doing things about.

所以，是的，我認為你永遠不知道會發生什麼，但我想說，這肯定是人們一直在思考和做事的話題。

Okay, got it.

好的，明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Colin Sebastian, Baird.

科林·塞巴斯蒂安，貝爾德。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Good morning.

早安.

So I know there's a lot of focus here on the category challenges and efforts in pricing and advertising.

所以我知道這裡有很多注意力集中在定價和廣告方面的類別挑戰和努力。

But Niraj, if we sort of zoom out on broader e-commerce platform and technology trends, I mean, there's a lot of change happening around shopping tools and digital assistance and personalization within apps.

但是 Niraj，如果我們放眼更廣泛的電子商務平台和技術趨勢，我的意思是，購物工具、數位幫助以及應用程式內的個人化正在發生很多變化。

And so I wonder how important those initiatives are for Wayfair?

所以我想知道這些措施對 Wayfair 有多重要？

And are you seeing any positive impacts perhaps in metrics like just time spent or discovery and browsing even if those aren't converting yet to sales in this environment?

您是否在諸如花費的時間或發現和瀏覽等指標中看到了任何積極的影響，即使這些指標尚未在這種環境中轉化為銷售？

Yeah, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

This is Steve again.

這又是史蒂夫。

Let me just kick this off.

讓我開始吧。

We have been doing a lot of things internally.

我們在內部做了很多事情。

Actually, just this morning, I sent out an internal sort of pre-earnings little video, and I did it completely with AI.

事實上，就在今天早上，我發出了一個內部的預盈利小視頻，而且我完全是用人工智能來完成的。

And I think part of this is -- we're all going through this learning curve together right now of how to best use these new tools.

我認為其中一部分原因是——我們現在正在共同經歷如何最好地使用這些新工具的學習曲線。

And so when you look out and say if we don't adopt the best practices in the business, we're going to be in trouble.

因此，當您發現並說如果我們不採用業務中的最佳實踐時，我們就會遇到麻煩。

And so it's on us to really push our teams to make sure they're using these new tools and experimenting and trying new things and pushing the cutting-edge so that we can be a leader and not be kind of at risk of the market changing around us without us catching it.

因此，我們有責任真正推動我們的團隊確保他們使用這些新工具並試驗和嘗試新事物並推動前沿技術，以便我們能夠成為領導者，而不是面臨市場變化的風險在我們周圍，而我們卻沒有發現它。

So we have a number of initiatives internally that are -- some are very tactical and some have a very direct efficiency paybacks, where teams are using them to improve process flows that they have today.

因此，我們內部有許多舉措——有些非常具有戰術性，有些具有非常直接的效率回報，團隊正在使用它們來改進他們今天擁有的流程。

And then some are much more experimental where they're trying to go after things that could be disruptive in the future that could be very exciting for our customers or could change the efficiency curves in different parts of our business.

還有一些更具實驗性，他們試圖追求未來可能具有顛覆性的事物，這些事物可能對我們的客戶來說非常令人興奮，或者可能改變我們業務不同部分的效率曲線。

Yeah.

是的。

And what you've seen, like, so we've been large adopter of machine learning, data science for a very long time.

正如你所看到的，很長一段時間以來，我們一直是機器學習和資料科學的廣泛採用者。

And that's how we price the catalog, how we do sort or how we do a lot of personalization.

這就是我們如何為目錄定價、如何排序或如何進行大量個人化設定。

But with the kind of more recent advent of GenAI, we've also been an aggressive adopter there where we have a lot of use cases where you can kind of do things and you see the return very quickly.

但隨著 GenAI 最近的出現，我們也成為了積極的採用者，我們有很多用例，你可以在其中做一些事情，並且很快就能看到回報。

For example, we have a very large catalog, millions, millions, tens of millions of items.

例如，我們有一個非常大的目錄，有數百萬、數百萬、數千萬的項目。

And so finding dimension inaccuracies in correcting them, auto tagging a lot of merchandising attributes.

因此，找到尺寸不準確的地方並進行修正，自動標記許多商品屬性。

Those are things that we've actually put into production.

這些都是我們實際投入生產的東西。

They're driving a lot of value at a very insignificant cost.

他們以微不足道的成本創造了大量的價值。

And similarly, on how we empower our customer service agents to be able to take care of the customer and do a good job.

同樣，我們如何授權我們的客戶服務代理能夠照顧客戶並做好工作。

We've been able to create tools there or for our software development teams and kind of the copilot type products out there for increasing productivity of coding.

我們已經能夠在那裡或為我們的軟體開發團隊創建工具，以及用於提高編碼效率的副駕駛類型產品。

So there's been a bunch of things we've been an aggressive adopter on.

因此，我們一直在積極採用很多東西。

On the customer side, I think what you're also getting at is it can change how customers shop.

在客戶方面，我認為您也了解到它可以改變客戶的購物方式。

And there, I think we actually do have some kind of pilots and proof of concepts of things that we're trying that we do -- we have one that we're setting a small amount of traffic in, and it actually shows really amazing customer engagement.

在那裡，我認為我們實際上確實有某種試點項目和我們正在嘗試做的事情的概念證明 - 我們有一個我們正在設置少量流量的項目，它實際上顯示出非常驚人的效果客戶參與度。

It's still early.

現在還早。

But we're basically -- we're certainly I think we're being prudent about how much we're investing.

但我們基本上——我認為我們對投資金額持謹慎態度。

We're not overinvesting, but I think we're also not ignoring it.

我們並沒有過度投資，但我認為我們也沒有忽視它。

And I'd say we definitely are pretty happy with some of the progress we're making.

我想說，我們對所取得的一些進展絕對感到非常滿意。

And we're in a good position because it's a category.

我們處於有利位置，因為它是一個類別。

We're not selling commodity goods.

我們不賣商品。

And I think the biggest challenge with agents are if you're a seller of commodity items.

我認為代理商面臨的最大挑戰是如果您是商品賣家。

Now, you can have an agent say, hey, you know, I want to reorder those bounty paper towels, that dish soap, you know, it's more Dove soap bars.

現在，你可以讓代理人說，嘿，你知道，我想重新訂購那些贈品紙巾，洗潔精，你知道，更多的是多芬肥皂條。

Well, that agent can basically figure out, hey, is it cheaper at Walmart, at Target, Amazon?

好吧，那個代理人基本上可以弄清楚，嘿，沃爾瑪、塔吉特、亞馬遜的東西便宜嗎？

Oh, does it make sense?

哦，有道理嗎？

So we're ordering from Walmart, automatically sign me up for Walmart Plus or whatever, execute that order.

因此，我們從沃爾瑪訂購，自動為我註冊 Walmart Plus 或其他服務，然後執行該訂單。

I don't care whose kind of brown cardboard box shows up at my door, right?

我不在乎誰的棕色紙箱出現在我家門口，對吧？

But if you're selling items that are exclusive, there's a lot of consideration in how you pick the right item.

但如果您銷售的是獨家商品，則在如何選擇合適的商品時需要考慮很多。

There's a lot of fine distinction between different items.

不同的項目之間有很多細微的差別。

The agent role is going to be a little different.

代理人的角色會有所不同。

And I think there's things you can do to kind of enhance the customer experience in a way that's really engaging, but it's not, I think the real challenge is if you're more a commodity provider.

我認為你可以採取一些措施以一種真正有吸引力的方式增強客戶體驗，但事實並非如此，我認為真正的挑戰是如果你更多的是商品供應商。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Niraj.

謝謝，尼拉吉。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Oliver Wintermantel, Evercore.

奧利佛·溫特曼特爾，Evercore。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Kate, I think you mentioned you're looking forward to a healthy free cash flow generation in the fourth quarter.

凱特，我想您提到您期待在第四季度產生健康的自由現金流。

Maybe can you confirm the free cash flow that you guys expect free cash flow to be positive this year?

也許您能確認一下你們預計今年自由現金流為正的自由現金流嗎？

And then maybe the capital allocation into next year.

然後也許是明年的資本配置。

Maybe talk a little bit about how you want to invest and what is driving CapEx next year?

也許可以談談您想如何投資以及推動明年資本支出的因素是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

So a few thoughts.

所以有一些想法。

So just first, relative to the fourth quarter, we do typically see positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter.

因此，首先，相對於第四季度，我們通常會看到第四季度的自由現金流為正。

As a reminder, part of that is the working capital dynamic, right?

提醒一下，其中一部分是營運資金動態，對嗎？

So seasonally, the fourth quarter is typically a bigger revenue quarter than the third quarter.

因此，從季節性角度來看，第四季的營收通常高於第三季。

And that, in combination with our ongoing discipline around adjusted EBITDA growth and CapEx, should drive nice free cash flow in the fourth quarter.

再加上我們圍繞調整後 EBITDA 成長和資本支出的持續紀律，應該會在第四季度推動良好的自由現金流。

Obviously, we haven't given any 2025 guidance.

顯然，我們還沒有給出任何 2025 年的指導。

But as we think about CapEx, I'd sort of look at what we've done over the past year.

但當我們考慮資本支出時，我會看看我們在過去一年中所做的事情。

And so what you've seen is ongoing discipline on that line as well.

所以你所看到的也是在這方面持續的紀律。

There are really two sort of components to CapEx that we break out here.

我們在這裡將資本支出分為兩類。

One is the [CapEx] labor piece.

一是[資本支出]勞動力。

And you've seen that continue to come in quite nicely as we've been very thoughtful and disciplined on our team and our structuring.

你已經看到，這種情況繼續很好地發生，因為我們對我們的團隊和結構非常深思熟慮和遵守紀律。

And then the other is that PP&E line.

另一個是 PP&E 生產線。

Within that PP&E line is the investment in our logistics network and the investment in physical retail.

PP&E 系列包括對我們的物流網絡的投資和對實體零售的投資。

And what we've spoken about there is in the logistics network, we're very pleased with where the network is today.

我們談到的是物流網絡，我們對網路今天的狀況非常滿意。

So we're not in a growth mode on that network.

所以我們在該網路上並未處於成長模式。

There's some maintenance CapEx there, but it's really not about expansion.

這裡有一些維護資本支出，但實際上與擴展無關。

We had ample capacity for the growth that we intend to have.

我們有足夠的能力來實現我們想要的成長。

And then on the physical retail side, what we've also said there is we're excited about that opportunity.

然後在實體零售方面，我們也說過我們對這個機會感到興奮。

We're obviously quite pleased with the results from that first large format store that opened in the spring, but we intend to be very disciplined about the rollout there.

顯然，我們對春季開業的第一家大型商店的結果非常滿意，但我們打算對在那裡的推出非常嚴格。

And so you should, overall, you've seen us throughout this year, bringing CapEx nicely from last year as we maintain that expense discipline and rigor up and down the P&L.

因此，總體而言，您應該看到我們今年全年的資本支出比去年好，因為我們在損益表上保持了費用紀律和嚴格性。

Got it, thanks.

明白了，謝謝。

And then maybe on international, it looks like that had a nice improvement in EBITDA versus the first half of the year.

然後，也許在國際市場上，與上半年相比，EBITDA 似乎有了很大的改善。

On your comment about next year's EBITDA dollars to be positive versus 2024, how much of that is international improvement?

您認為明年的 EBITDA 美元將比 2024 年為正，其中有多少是來自國際的改善？

Yeah.

是的。

So I'll just make a quick comment and then turn it over to Kate for the details.

因此，我將快速發表評論，然後將其轉交給凱特以了解詳細資訊。

But I think what you're seeing over time is a lot of the work we did over two years of really kind of streamlining our cost structure, focusing on the key things for each business line that we think are important to drive them forward.

但我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們在兩年多的時間裡做了很多工作，真正簡化了我們的成本結構，專注於我們認為對推動它們向前發展很重要的每個業務線的關鍵事情。

And then as time plays out, we're seeing that the business -- we're pretty happy with the progress we're making on the key drivers in each line of business that we want to see progress.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們看到業務 - 我們對我們希望看到進展的每個業務線的關鍵驅動因素所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

I'm not really allowed to give guidance, so I'll turn it over to Kate.

我實際上不被允許提供指導，所以我會把它交給凱特。

I am also not going to give you guidance.

我也不打算給你指導。

But I reiterate what you said, which is as we thought about the cost discipline and the selective areas where we invest across the business, right?

但我重申你所說的，這是我們考慮成本紀律和我們在整個業務中投資的選擇性領域，對嗎？

That's not just specific to the US.

這不僅僅是美國特有的。

And what we said was, we started some of the cost restructuring is that, that would be sort of global in nature and how we look at that.

我們所說的是，我們開始了一些成本重組，這在本質上是全球性的，以及我們如何看待這一點。

And as we sort of think about what we're driving for the business, we're really focused on the business overall and what that looks like across Wayfair, Inc.

當我們思考我們為業務帶來什麼時，我們真正關注的是整體業務以及 Wayfair, Inc. 的情況。

And in the interest of time, we will conclude our Q&A session here.

由於時間關係，我們將在這裡結束我們的問答環節。

I would like to hand back over to the Wayfair team for closing remarks.

我想請 Wayfair 團隊做結束語。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

As you can probably tell, we're pretty excited with where we are now with the business, the things that are rolling out and coming, and we're pretty -- we really like the prospects we have as we're looking forward.

正如你可能會說的那樣，我們對我們現在的業務狀況、即將推出和即將推出的東西感到非常興奮，而且我們非常喜歡我們所期待的前景。

Thanks for your interest in Wayfair.

感謝您對 Wayfair 的興趣。

I hope you have a great holiday season.

我希望您有一個愉快的假期。

Thank you, all.

謝謝大家。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Enjoy the rest of your day.

享受你一天剩下的時間。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。