Wayfair Inc (W) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Wayfair Q3 2023 Earnings Release and Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加 Wayfair 2023 年第三季財報發布和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. James Lamb, Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係和財務部主管 James Lamb 先生。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will review our third quarter 2023 results. With me are Niraj Shah, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chairman; Steve Conine, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman; and Kate Gulliver, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer. We will all be available for Q&A following today's prepared remarks.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們將回顧 2023 年第三季的業績。和我在一起的還有共同創辦人、執行長兼聯合主席 Niraj Shah； Steve Conine，共同創辦人兼聯合主席；財務長兼首席行政官 Kate Gulliver。在今天準備好的發言之後，我們都可以接受問答。

I would like to remind you that our call today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those regarding our future prospects, business strategies, industry trends and our financial performance, including guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023. All forward-looking statements made on today's call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will be accurate, although we believe that we have been reasonable in our expectations and assumptions.

我想提醒您，我們今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關我們的未來前景、業務戰略、行業趨勢和財務業績的陳述，包括 2023 年第四季度的指導。今天電話會議中所做的所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天為止我們掌握的資訊。儘管我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的，但我們不能保證任何前瞻性陳述都是準確的。

Our 10-K for 2022, our 10-Q for this quarter and our subsequent SEC filings identify certain factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made today. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements, whether as a result of any new information, future events or otherwise.

我們的2022 年10-K、本季的10-Q 以及隨後向SEC 提交的文件確定了某些因素，這些因素可能導致公司的實際業績與今天做出的任何前瞻性聲明中的預測存在重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何這些聲明的義務，無論是由於任何新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

Also, please note that during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as we review the company's performance, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and free cash flow. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered replacements for and should be read together with GAAP results.

另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們將在審查公司績效時討論某些非公認會計原則財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代公認會計原則結果，而應與公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。

Please refer to the Investor Relations section of our website to obtain a copy of our earnings release and investor presentation, which contain descriptions of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures. This call is being recorded, and a webcast will be available for replay on our IR website.

請參閱我們網站的投資者關係部分，以取得我們的收益發布和投資者簡報的副本，其中包含我們的非 GAAP 財務指標的描述以及非 GAAP 指標與最接近的可比較 GAAP 指標的調整表。本次通話正在錄音，我們的 IR 網站上將提供網路廣播重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Niraj.

我現在想把電話轉給 Niraj。

Thanks, James, and good morning, everyone. We're excited to reconnect with you today to cover our third quarter results. While we still have a couple of months left to go, I'm confident the overarching theme of 2023 will be execution. Our team came into this year with a plan, a plan to see our core recipe return to form to return our business to profitability and to continue pushing our major growth initiatives forward. Wayfair is now in a place where we can both drive profitability while simultaneously investing for growth. Q3 is one more proof point of exactly that.

謝謝詹姆斯，大家早安。我們很高興今天再次與您聯繫，介紹我們第三季的業績。雖然我們還有幾個月的時間，但我相信 2023 年的首要主題將是執行。我們的團隊今年制定了一個計劃，一個計劃，讓我們的核心配方恢復正常，使我們的業務恢復盈利，並繼續推動我們的主要增長計劃向前發展。 Wayfair 現在處於這樣一個位置：我們既可以提高獲利能力，又可以同時投資促進成長。第三季是這一點的另一個證明。

Today, we're reporting positive adjusted EBITDA of $100 million, a second consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow and nearly 4% year-over-year revenue growth driven by strength in orders. We saw order momentum persist from the spring through the summer, up 14% in the third quarter versus 2022. You're seeing this lead to steady improvement in our active customer metric, which saw sequential growth strengthen to 2% and is well on its way to getting back to positive year-over-year growth.

今天，我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 1 億美元，連續第二季實現正自由現金流，在訂單強勁的推動下，營收年增近 4%。我們看到訂單動能從春季到夏季持續存在，與 2022 年相比，第三季成長了 14%。您會看到這導致我們的活躍客戶指標穩步改善，環比增長加強至 2%，並且符合預期恢復同比正增長的方法。

2023 has been an eventful year for Wayfair as the plans we set in motion during 2022 have come to fruition. Our remarkable progress against the 3 core priorities we set back in the summer of last year, nailing the basics, driving customer and supplier loyalty and cost efficiency put us in a position to beat our own timetable to profitability. One of the analyst reports summing up our second quarter results was titled, they did what they said they would do, and we can think of no better complement. We executed further in the third quarter to produce consistent profitability while still driving demonstrable market share growth as evidenced by our gains on customers and orders.

2023 年對 Wayfair 來說是不平凡的一年，我們在 2022 年制定的計畫已經實現。我們在去年夏天設定的三個核心優先事項方面取得了顯著進展，鞏固了基礎，提高了客戶和供應商的忠誠度以及成本效率，使我們能夠超越自己的盈利時間表。一份總結我們第二季業績的分析師報告的標題是，他們做了他們所說的事情，我們想不出更好的補充。我們在第三季進一步執行，以產生持續的獲利能力，同時仍然推動明顯的市場份額成長，這一點從我們在客戶和訂單上的成長就可以證明。

One of our long-running focus areas is controlling the controllables. And you're seeing that we have and will continue to keep a tight grip on the reins even with a volatile macro environment around us. Our improving order trend has led us to a place where net revenue returned to positive growth this quarter, even as average order values continue to normalize versus last year. With the considerable inflationary pressures across ocean freight and raw materials coming out of the system, it has been no surprise to see pricing levels continue to come back down to a more normal range for the category.

我們長期關注的重點領域之一是控制可控因素。你會看到，即使我們周圍的宏觀環境不穩定，我們已經並將繼續牢牢控制住局面。儘管平均訂單價值與去年相比繼續正常化，但訂單趨勢的改善使我們本季的淨收入恢復正成長。由於海運和原物料系統面臨相當大的通膨壓力，價格水準繼續回落至該類別的更正常範圍也就不足為奇了。

We've heard a lot of debate around AOV over the summer as investors try to piece together where levels will stabilize. Our conversations with suppliers suggest that prices should continue to rationalize in Q4, which we anticipate will represent the year-over-year trough. Lower AOVs in tandem with strengthen the core recipe are contributing to our order growth and share capture. This is particularly encouraging when we think about the strong repeat behavior of our customers with nearly 80% of orders in 2023 so far coming from returning shoppers.

今年夏天，我們聽到了很多圍繞 AOV 的爭論，投資者試圖拼湊出穩定水平的答案。我們與供應商的對話表明，第四季度價格應繼續合理化，我們預計這將是同比低谷。較低的 AOV 與加強核心配方相結合，有助於我們的訂單成長和份額獲取。當我們考慮到客戶的強烈重複行為（迄今為止，2023 年近 80% 的訂單來自回頭客）時，這一點尤其令人鼓舞。

Growing market share is a key focus area as our category demonstrates persistent weakness. We've seen the sector slow from the last time we spoke in August. A few weeks ago, I was in High Point and heard repeatedly from our suppliers that the market is getting tougher. In the U.S., the category is now tracking down in the mid- to high teens on dollars with continued order pressure industry-wide. In spite of the distressed home goods environment, our share position has held up well. Third-party data shows that our share gains across 2023 are persistent and have come from a large collection of peers rather than from any specific displaced retailer, just as it has for most of our existence.

不斷增長的市場份額是一個關鍵的關注領域，因為我們的類別表現出持續的疲軟。自八月上次談話以來，我們已經看到該行業放緩。幾週前，我在海波因特，多次從我們的供應商那裡聽到市場變得越來越嚴峻。在美國，由於整個行業的訂單壓力持續存在，該類別的美元價格目前正在下降。儘管家居用品環境不佳，我們的股票地位仍然保持良好。第三方數據顯示，我們在 2023 年的份額增長是持續的，並且來自大量同行，而不是來自任何特定的被取代的零售商，就像我們存在的大部分時間一樣。

Every day, we see customers choosing Wayfair because of our unmatched combination of competitive pricing with the widest selection in the industry and speedy fulfillment on the items our customers love. The success has been broad-based across our catalog, not focused on any specific classes within our assortment. In fact, we still frequently hear our customers and investors express surprise at the depth of our catalog. So I wanted to take a moment to highlight a couple of categories you might not immediately associate with Wayfair, but are great examples of our strong share gains.

每天，我們都會看到客戶選擇 Wayfair，因為我們將具有競爭力的價格與業內最廣泛的選擇相結合，並快速履行客戶喜愛的商品。我們的產品系列取得了廣泛的成功，而不是集中在我們產品類別中的任何特定類別。事實上，我們仍然經常聽到我們的客戶和投資者對我們目錄的深度表示驚訝。因此，我想花點時間重點介紹幾個您可能不會立即與 Wayfair 聯繫起來的類別，但它們是我們強勁份額增長的絕佳例子。

Many shoppers think of Wayfair as a great place to buy their next bed, but we don't stop there. Our customers can also pick out their next mattress, sheet set and bed pillows at the same time. We've seen our share in the mattress class outperformed meaningfully over the past couple of quarters with positive unit growth in the low double-digit range year-over-year, while market volumes have been down by a commensurate amount in the same time frame. Mattresses are known for having a wide range of price points. And on Wayfair, you can find a broad assortment of the highest end national brands all the way to our Wayfair Sleep Essentials line. Mattresses are the perfect example of the core recipe in action.

許多購物者認為 Wayfair 是購買下一張床的好地方，但我們不止於此。我們的顧客還可以同時挑選他們的下一個床墊、床單組和枕頭。我們看到，在過去的幾個季度中，我們在床墊類別中的份額顯著優於大市，單位數量同比正增長，處於較低的兩位數範圍內，而同期市場銷量卻出現了相應的下降。眾所周知，床墊有多種價位。在 Wayfair 上，您可以找到各種最高端的國內品牌，一直到我們的 Wayfair Sleep Essentials 系列。床墊是核心配方實際應用的完美範例。

This is a class where we win by having that wide assortment in tandem with competitive pricing. As we do with our entire catalog, we take a good, better, best approach to our selection ensuring that customers are finding the highest value at any budget level. We wrap it all together with fast delivery. Mattresses have one of the highest levels of speed badging across any of the classes we sell. We also have the value-added services customers expect in a great shopping experience, be it financing, white glove setup or taking an old mattress away. Our scale enables us to compete successfully in a class that pushes the boundary of online penetration across our category with nearly 1/3 of mattress sales happening online.

在這個類別中，我們透過擁有廣泛的品種和具有競爭力的價格而獲勝。正如我們對整個產品目錄所做的那樣，我們採用良好、更好、最佳的選擇方法，確保客戶在任何預算水平上都能找到最高的價值。我們透過快速交貨將其全部包裝在一起。在我們銷售的所有類別中，床墊具有最高等級的速度徽章之一。我們也提供顧客期望獲得良好購物體驗的增值服務，無論是融資、白手套安裝或拿走舊床墊。我們的規模使我們能夠在一個類別中成功競爭，該類別推動了整個類別的線上滲透率邊界，近 1/3 的床墊銷售發生在網路上。

Just like mattresses, we frequently find our customers surprised and delighted at the breadth of furniture products they can find for their dogs, cats, birds, fish or reptiles on Wayfair. The pet furniture opportunity represents several billion dollars of our $800 billion TAM, and we've seen strong double-digit growth here over the past 2 quarters, while outpacing the peer set. Our place in the field is unique as we tap into the emotional investment of the home, multiplied by the emotional connection our shoppers have to their pets.

就像床墊一樣，我們經常發現客戶對 Wayfair 上為狗、貓、鳥、魚或爬行動物找到的各種家具產品感到驚訝和高興。寵物家具機會占我們 8000 億美元 TAM 中的數十億美元，在過去兩個季度中我們看到了強勁的兩位數增長，同時超過了同行。我們在這個領域的地位是獨一無二的，因為我們利用了對家庭的情感投資，乘以我們的購物者與他們的寵物之間的情感聯繫。

We've built a promotional calendar around the major pet-focused events to speak to customers in this space. For example, we ran an app-focused event for National Dog Day this summer. We saw considerable double-digit boost to click-through rates, conversion and sales as shoppers celebrated the opportunity to make their homes a better place for their 4-legged friends.

我們圍繞主要寵物活動制定了促銷日曆，以便與該領域的客戶進行交流。例如，我們在今年夏天的全國狗日舉辦了一場以應用程式為中心的活動。我們看到點擊率、轉換率和銷售額出現了兩位數的大幅增長，因為購物者慶祝有機會為他們的四足朋友讓他們的家變得更美好。

Before I turn things over to Kate, I would like to spend a few minutes touching on 3 of the biggest questions we've heard from investors in recent weeks. And the first of these is around promotion. A few of you have asked how promotions have impacted our order momentum and ability to take share. So it's important to frame up how the environment has evolved in the past year. Last fall, we saw promotional intensity spike as suppliers used discounts as a tool to clear out inventory. While our cadence mirrors the peer group, our focus is leveraging promotion as a tool for engagement.

在我把事情交給凱特之前，我想花幾分鐘談談我們最近幾週從投資者那裡聽到的三個最大的問題。第一個是關於促銷。你們中的一些人問促銷活動如何影響我們的訂單動力和佔領市場份額的能力。因此，了解過去一年環境的演變非常重要。去年秋天，由於供應商使用折扣作為清理庫存的工具，我們看到促銷力道激增。雖然我們的節奏反映了同儕群體，但我們的重點是利用晉升作為參與的工具。

Shoppers are staying on the sidelines until they spot a good deal. But once in the door, they're proving happy to shop around. As I noted last quarter, during promotional events, less than 1/3 of our gross revenue is driven by featured items. Moreover, our average supplier is marking down within a very reasonable range where they can achieve positive order economics for themselves even with a discount. This is due in part to the massive base of 22 million customers that our suppliers access by selling on Wayfair.

購物者會保持觀望，直到發現特價商品。但一旦進門，他們就會很樂意貨比三家。正如我上季度所指出的，在促銷活動期間，我們的總收入中不到 1/3 是由特色商品推動的。此外，我們的平均供應商降價幅度在一個非常合理的範圍內，即使有折扣，他們也可以為自己實現積極的訂單經濟效益。這在一定程度上是由於我們的供應商透過在 Wayfair 上銷售而獲得了 2200 萬客戶的龐大基礎。

Our customer file draws more selection on the platform, which in turn brings in more customers and ultimately spins the flywheel of share capture. As the inventory environment normalizes and promotional intensity evens out, we can continue to be a share winner as our core recipe has proven for many years.

我們的客戶檔案在平台上吸引了更多的選擇，這反過來又帶來了更多的客戶，並最終旋轉了份額捕獲的飛輪。隨著庫存環境正常化和促銷強度趨於平衡，我們可以繼續成為份額贏家，正如我們的核心秘訣多年來所證明的那樣。

The second question is unsurprisingly one, about the housing cycle and our ability to succeed in an environment where people are staying put in their homes for longer. The answer to that question is quite straightforward. While we do have customers that will come to Wayfair for purchases geared around a move, this is far from our most common customer use case. You can see this in our own data on orders and revenue per customer. The average Wayfair shopper places about 2 orders per year, totaling about $540.

第二個問題毫不奇怪，是關於住房週期以及我們在人們長時間待在家裡的環境中取得成功的能力。這個問題的答案非常簡單。雖然我們確實有客戶會來 Wayfair 進行因搬家而進行的購買，但這與我們最常見的客戶用例相去甚遠。您可以在我們自己的有關每個客戶的訂單和收入的數據中看到這一點。 Wayfair 購物者平均每年下約 2 個訂單，總計約 540 美元。

This isn't someone that is typically refitting an entire room or house instead a shopper that's going through their home item-by-item, project-by-project, making small updates on a much more frequent cadence. If our customers stay in their homes for longer, we're well positioned to be their retailer of choice, the next time they decide that they'd like a new lamp for the living room or want a new set of chairs for their dining table.

這不是一個通常會重新裝修整個房間或房子的人，而是一個會逐個項目、逐個項目地檢查他們的家的購物者，以更頻繁的節奏進行小的更新。如果我們的客戶在家中停留的時間更長，我們就有能力成為他們選擇的零售商，下次他們決定為客廳添加一盞新燈或為餐桌添加一套新椅子時。

As I wrap up, the last question I want to address is when we heard following our Investor Day in August. For those that were able to tune into the event, you'll remember the slide on our growth algorithm, which detailed our pathway to returning to a double-digit growth rate. We walked through our major focus areas, our specialty and luxury brands, international efforts, physical retail investments, Wayfair Professional offering and our supplier advertising solutions.

在我總結時，我想解決的最後一個問題是我們在八月的投資者日之後聽到的。對於那些能夠收聽活動的人，您會記得我們的成長演算法投影片，其中詳細介紹了我們恢復兩位數成長率的途徑。我們詳細介紹了我們的主要重點領域、我們的專業品牌和奢侈品牌、國際努力、實體零售投資、Wayfair Professional 產品和我們的供應商廣告解決方案。

In the week since one of the most frequent questions we've gotten is how to think about the timing across these initiatives. The way to think about these growth drivers is on a staggered basis of maturity. While even the most mature efforts on this list are higher-end brands and Wayfair Professional are still in early days compared to our U.S. business, we see a strong trajectory for each. As these businesses eventually ramp up to the middle of their S curves, we expect the next initiatives will be right in line to follow a similar pattern.

一週以來，我們收到的最常見的問題之一是如何考慮這些措施的時機。考慮這些成長動力的方法是在成熟度的交錯基礎上進行。雖然這份名單上最成熟的品牌都是高端品牌，而與我們的美國業務相比，Wayfair Professional 仍處於早期階段，但我們看到了每個品牌的強勁發展軌跡。隨著這些業務最終上升到 S 曲線的中間，我們預計接下來的舉措將遵循類似的模式。

In totality, we believe that this will give us the legs to drive considerable share outperformance in the years to come. And as the category returns to stable footing, push our aggregate growth rate comfortably back into the double digits. This also means that we will be vigilant about tracking their performance against our investment thesis. As we operate the business over a multiyear period, we'll concentrate our focus on growth drivers, delivering well over 10% top line growth with significant flow-through to EBITDA, and we won't hesitate to shift course if a driver is not delivering as we expected.

總的來說，我們相信這將使我們有能力在未來幾年推動大幅超越股票的表現。隨著該類別恢復穩定，我們的總成長率將輕鬆回到兩位數。這也意味著我們將保持警惕，根據我們的投資理論追蹤他們的表現。當我們經營業務多年時，我們將把重點放在成長驅動因素上，實現遠超10% 的營收成長，並為EBITDA 帶來顯著的收益，如果驅動因素不存在，我們會毫不猶豫地改變方向。交付符合我們的預期。

That goes back to where I began today, the concept of execution. We see this as a key theme of 2023, but not one that goes away as the calendar turns over. Even with a turbulent macro, we remain committed to being adjusted EBITDA profitable in good times and bad. We'll continue to drive peerless focus and execution into 2024 and beyond, as we push every day to be the #1 shopping destination for the whole.

這又回到了我今天開始的地方，也就是執行的概念。我們認為這是 2023 年的關鍵主題，但它不會隨著日曆的推移而消失。即使宏觀環境動盪，我們仍致力於在順境和逆境中實現調整後的 EBITDA 獲利。到 2024 年及以後，我們將繼續保持無與倫比的專注力和執行力，每天都在努力成為整體排名第一的購物目的地。

Thank you. And now let me turn it over to Kate.

謝謝。現在讓我把它交給凱特。

Thanks, Niraj, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was an exciting continuation of our profitability journey we laid out on this call last year. So let's dive into the details.

謝謝，Niraj，大家早安。第三季是我們去年在電話會議上製定的盈利之旅的令人興奮的延續。那麼讓我們深入了解細節。

Net revenue for the third quarter came in at $2.9 billion, up 3.7% year-over-year, with our U.S. segment up by 5.4% in spite of the increased slowness in the category. Niraj spoke about the major moving pieces here as it pertains to our KPIs. Order momentum showed nice double-digit strength, up 14% versus 2022, while AOV came down by about 9% against the same period. All in all, we see this as important progress as our business builds momentum. Orders today are the best indicator of orders in the future, and we're encouraged by the improvement as we see shoppers increasingly returning to Wayfair for their needs across the home.

第三季淨收入為 29 億美元，年增 3.7%，其中美國業務成長 5.4%，儘管該類別成長放緩。 Niraj 談到了與我們的 KPI 相關的主要活動。訂單動能顯示兩位數的強勁勢頭，較 2022 年增長 14%，而 AOV 較同期下降約 9%。總而言之，我們認為這是我們業務發展動能的重要進展。今天的訂單是未來訂單的最佳指標，我們對這種改善感到鼓舞，因為我們看到越來越多的購物者回到 Wayfair 來滿足他們在家中的需求。

I'll now move further down the P&L. As I do, please note that the remaining financials include depreciation and amortization, but exclude equity-based compensation, related taxes and other adjustments. I will use the same basis when discussing our outlook as well. Gross margin had another quarter of standout strength, landing at 31.2% for the period. There are a few moving pieces to unpack here starting with our efforts at pulling costs out of the system. We've talked about our cost efficiency efforts at length, so I won't repeat all the details now. But the important piece to remember is that our operative goal is to maximize multi-quarter gross profit dollars.

我現在將進一步查看損益表。正如我所做的那樣，請注意，其餘財務數據包括折舊和攤銷，但不包括股權薪資、相關稅費和其他調整。在討論我們的前景時，我也會使用相同的基礎。毛利率又一個季度表現出色，期內達到 31.2%。這裡有一些移動的部分需要解開，首先是我們努力從系統中剔除成本。我們已經詳細討論了我們在成本效率方面的努力，因此我現在不再重複所有細節。但要記住的重要一點是，我們的營運目標是最大化多個季度的毛利。

To that end, we did carefully redeploy some of the savings dollars into the customer experience with the goal of driving results that would show up not just in Q3, but also Q4 and even into next year. This was augmented by better-than-expected performance across our merchandising efforts, including strong results from some higher-margin classes in addition to benefits from the profit [aware] source that Niraj spoke about in May.

為此，我們確實謹慎地將一些節省下來的資金重新部署到客戶體驗中，目標是推動結果不僅在第三季、而且在第四季甚至明年都顯現出來。我們的銷售工作表現優於預期，其中包括一些利潤率較高的類別的強勁業績，以及 Niraj 在 5 月份談到的利潤[意識]來源帶來的好處，進一步增強了這一點。

Moving further down the income statement. Customer service and merchant fees came in at 4.4% of net revenue. Advertising came in at 11.4% of net revenue as we drove improved efficiency across our paid channels, in part supported by the learnings from the advertising holdback tests we performed in the second quarter. Rounding out the cost line, our selling, operations, technology, general and administrative costs, or SOTG&A totaled $459 million for the third quarter. As we discussed back in August, you were seeing steady improvement on this line as we push for continued spending discipline each quarter and our goal to drive further leverage.

進一步降低損益表。客戶服務和商家費用佔淨收入的 4.4%。由於我們提高了付費管道的效率，廣告收入佔淨收入的 11.4%，部分原因是我們從第二季度進行的廣告抑制測試中獲得的經驗教訓。第三季我們的銷售、營運、技術、一般和管理成本（SOTG&A）總計 4.59 億美元。正如我們在 8 月討論的那樣，隨著我們推動每個季度持續的支出紀律以及進一步推動槓桿率的目標，您將看到這條線的穩定改善。

In total, we delivered $100 million of adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter for a 3.4% margin on net revenue. This was another strong quarter of profitability for Wayfair and a reflection of the work we've done to rebuild our cost structure across the business. To put the significant progress we've made here in perspective, this is over $220 million more of adjusted EBITDA and nearly 800 basis points higher adjusted EBITDA margin than we reported in Q3 of 2022.

總的來說，我們第三季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1 億美元，淨收入利潤率為 3.4%。這是 Wayfair 又一個強勁的季度獲利能力，也反映了我們為重建整個業務的成本結構所做的工作。為了正確看待我們在此取得的重大進展，調整後 EBITDA 增加了超過 2.2 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率比我們在 2022 年第三季報告的高出近 800 個基點。

Our U.S. segment generated $123 million of adjusted EBITDA for a 4.8% margin, and our International segment adjusted EBITDA losses continued to show improvement of negative $23 million for Q3. We ended the third quarter with $1.3 billion of cash and equivalents and $1.8 billion of total liquidity when adding in the capacity from our undrawn revolving credit facility. Net cash from operations was $121 million, which was offset by $79 million of capital expenditures. The net of these was $42 million of free cash flow during the quarter.

我們的美國部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1.23 億美元，利潤率為 4.8%，而我們的國際部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損在第三季繼續改善，為負 2,300 萬美元。第三季結束時，如果加上未提取的循環信貸額度，我們的現金及等價物為 13 億美元，流動性總額為 18 億美元。營運淨現金為 1.21 億美元，被 7,900 萬美元的資本支出抵銷。本季自由現金流淨額為 4,200 萬美元。

Now let's turn to guidance for the fourth quarter. Starting with the top line, quarter-to-date, we are seeing gross revenue trending close to flat year-over-year, and we would expect to end the quarter in the flat to positive low single-digit range. We anticipate AOV to show further compression in the fourth quarter versus 2022, though this should likely be the trough on a year-over-year percentage basis. We expect that AOV will continue to be offset by strong performance on orders as we expect to once again pace above the category on unit growth.

現在讓我們轉向第四季的指引。從營收開始，本季迄今，我們看到總營收與去年同期相比接近持平，我們預計本季末將維持在持平到正的低個位數範圍內。我們預計第四季度 AOV 將比 2022 年進一步壓縮，儘管這可能是同比百分比的低谷。我們預計 AOV 將繼續被訂單的強勁表現所抵消，因為我們預計單位成長將再次高於類別。

Moving now to gross margins. We will guide you to a 30% to 31% range. We are continuing to move our guided range higher as a reflection of the structural improvements in our gross margin that we've achieved through our operational cost savings efforts. Our customer service and merchant fees line should once again be in the range of 4% to 5% of net revenue and advertising should be in the 11.5% to 12.5% range again as well. We forecast SOTG&A, excluding stock-based compensation and related taxes to come in between $455 million and $465 million, as we continue to run the business through the lens of cost efficiency.

現在轉向毛利率。我們將指導您選擇 30% 到 31% 的範圍。我們將繼續提高指導範圍，這反映了我們透過節省營運成本的努力實現了毛利率的結構性改善。我們的客戶服務和商家費用線應再次在淨收入的 4% 至 5% 範圍內，廣告費用也應再次在 11.5% 至 12.5% 範圍內。我們預計 SOTG&A（不包括股票薪酬和相關稅費）將在 4.55 億至 4.65 億美元之間，因為我們將繼續從成本效率的角度經營業務。

If you follow this guidance, we would expect adjusted EBITDA margins for the fourth quarter to be somewhere in the low single-digit range making clear and steady progress to our goal of sustainable mid-single digits before turning to the subsequent goal of 10% plus margins that we detailed at our Investor Day.

如果遵循這一指導，我們預計第四季度調整後的EBITDA 利潤率將在低個位數範圍內，從而在實現10% 以上的後續目標之前，在實現可持續中個位數的目標方面取得明確而穩定的進展我們在投資者日詳細介紹了利潤率。

Now let me touch on a few housekeeping items. Equity-based compensation and related taxes of roughly $140 million to $160 million. Depreciation and amortization of approximately $103 million to $108 million. Net interest expense of approximately $4 million to $5 million. Weighted average shares outstanding of approximately $118 million, and CapEx in a $100 million to $110 million range based on the timing as we get closer to the launch of our flagship Wayfair store. Given our expectation for sequential revenue growth in the fourth quarter, we would also anticipate that working capital is a source of cash in the period. As such, we would expect another quarter of positive free cash flow to round out the year.

現在讓我談談一些家務用品。股權激勵和相關稅費約為1.4億至1.6億美元。折舊和攤提約1.03億至1.08億美元。淨利息支出約 400 萬至 500 萬美元。加權平均流通股約 1.18 億美元，資本支出在 1 億至 1.1 億美元之間，取決於我們距離 Wayfair 旗艦店開業的時間越來越近。鑑於我們對第四季度營收連續成長的預期，我們也預期營運資金是該期間的現金來源。因此，我們預計今年將有另一個季度的正自由現金流。

Before I wrap up, earlier, Niraj walked through a few of the biggest strategic questions on investors' minds, and I want to do the same with a couple of the financial questions we've been hearing. Coming off our Investor Day in August, we heard many of you ask about the timing of our margin drivers, especially as it pertains to the pathway we described as we journey from a mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA level to 1 north of 10%. We broke this pathway down into 5 components on the slide in our presentation, and I'll start by talking about the first 3, which are all contributors to gross margin.

在我結束之前，尼拉吉早些時候概述了投資者心中的一些最大的戰略問題，我想對我們聽到的幾個財務問題做同樣的事情。在8 月的投資者日結束後，我們聽到很多人詢問我們的利潤率驅動因素的時間安排，特別是當我們從中個位數調整後EBITDA 水平升至10% 以上時，它與我們描述的路徑有關。我們在簡報的幻燈片中將這條路徑分為 5 個組成部分，我將首先討論前 3 個組成部分，它們都是毛利率的貢獻者。

We largely think of these as independent of core revenue growth as the biggest driver here of supplier advertising will be achieved through scaling penetration within our existing sales base. Logistics will be driven by further cost savings as we achieve new levels of efficiency in our supply chain in tandem with increased adoption of our fulfillment solutions by our suppliers. The remaining 100 to 200 basis points of gross margin potential comes from a combination of merchandising and mix, achieved in large part by expanding the mix of our sales coming from more margin-accretive businesses like our higher-end retail brands and our professional platform.

我們在很大程度上認為這些與核心收入成長無關，因為供應商廣告的最大推動力將透過擴大我們現有銷售基礎的滲透率來實現。隨著我們的供應鏈效率達到新的水平，同時供應商越來越多地採用我們的履行解決方案，進一步節省成本將推動物流。剩餘的100 至200 個基點的毛利率潛力來自於商品銷售和產品組合的結合，這在很大程度上是透過擴大我們的銷售組合來實現的，這些銷售組合來自更能增加利潤的業務，如我們的高端零售品牌和我們的專業平台。

Beyond gross margin drivers, we talked to 2 more pieces on the path to 10% plus. We expect to drive 100 to 200 basis points of advertising leverage coming from a combination of our own efforts to push for higher efficiency in our paid channels as well as the normalization of the mix between free and paid traffic to our category.

除了毛利率驅動因素之外，我們還與另外 2 個人討論如何實現 10% 以上的目標。我們預計，透過我們自己的努力，提高付費管道的效率，以及我們類別的免費和付費流量混合的正常化，我們的廣告槓桿將提高 100 到 200 個基點。

Some of you have asked if this is the floor on advertising as a percentage of net revenue. And to that, I would say no. We have framed this journey around a discrete set of goalposts and expect advertising to come down by 100 to 200 basis points on the pathway to 10% adjusted EBITDA margins. However, our business certainly has the potential for margins well in excess of that. And you can expect that we will give more clarity around what the pathway to a higher margin looks like as we get closer to the 10% mark. That leaves SOTG&A, which is the one step of the path that is primarily driven by revenue leverage.

有些人問這是否是廣告佔淨收入百分比的下限。對此，我想說不。我們圍繞一組離散的目標制定了這一旅程，並預計廣告費用將減少 100 到 200 個基點，以達到 10% 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。然而，我們的業務肯定有遠遠超過這個水準的利潤潛力。您可以預期，當我們接近 10% 的目標時，我們將更清楚地說明實現更高利潤率的途徑。剩下的就是 SOTG&A，這是主要由收入槓桿驅動的路徑中的一步。

You've heard us say it many times, but I'll repeat it once again. Going forward, you should expect us to take a very deliberate approach to the size of this line item in reflection to the growth of revenue. While we haven't given any guidance for 2024, the one anchoring item I can offer is that whatever you are modeling for revenue growth, you should be modeling SOTG&A growth less than that.

你已經聽我們說過很多次了，但我會再說一次。展望未來，您應該預期我們對該訂單項目的規模採取非常審慎的方法，以反映收入的成長。雖然我們沒有給出 2024 年的任何指導，但我可以提供的一個錨點是，無論您對收入增長進行建模，您對 SOTG&A 增長的建模都應該低於該水平。

Finally, the one other big question we've gotten since the event has been around our capital structure. As I mentioned during the day, we're excited that our profitability milestones have opened a new set of doors for Wayfair from a financing perspective. Our upcoming maturities include the remaining $117 million due on our 2024 convertible notes and the $754 million that is left on our October 2025 notes. The 2024 notes have a strike price of $116 per share, but we've said that even if those notes don't end up converting, we intend to pay them down with cash from our balance sheet.

最後，自活動以來我們遇到的另一個大問題是關於我們的資本結構的。正如我當天提到的，我們很高興我們的獲利里程碑從融資角度為 Wayfair 打開了一扇新的大門。我們即將到期的債券包括 2024 年可轉換票據到期的剩餘 1.17 億美元和 2025 年 10 月票據剩餘的 7.54 億美元。 2024 年票據的執行價格為每股 116 美元，但我們已經說過，即使這些票據最終沒有轉換，我們也打算用資產負債表中的現金來支付。

The 2025 notes have a strike price of $417 per share. So while we remain optimistic about the potential for our stock, we are planning around how to handle them in the absence of conversion. This will involve some combination of paying down with cash from our balance sheet as well as refinancing. With a wider suite of options available to us, we intend to be thoughtful around exploring options in the debt markets and are quite cognizant of the trade-offs between convertible and high-yield debt.

2025 年票據的執行價格為每股 417 美元。因此，儘管我們對股票的潛力保持樂觀，但我們正在計劃如何在沒有轉換的情況下處理它們。這將涉及用我們的資產負債表中的現金支付以及再融資的一些組合。有了更廣泛的選擇，我們打算仔細探索債務市場的選擇，並且非常清楚可轉換債券和高收益債券之間的權衡。

As I wrap up, I want to return to the discussion of execution that Niraj touched on earlier. Over the past 12 months, our relentless focus on cost control has enabled us to deliver consistently improving adjusted EBITDA. As we look ahead to 2024, I want to be clear that our operating lines have remained the same, and we expect to deliver substantial adjusted EBITDA growth even if the environment gets more complicated. We've demonstrated throughout 2023, that we know the right levers to pull to deliver profitability growth. As we shared at our Investor Day, ultimately, we are committed to delivering on mid-single-digit margins and then eventually 10% plus, all with the goal to maximize free cash flow generation over time.

在結束時，我想回到尼拉吉之前談到的執行討論。在過去 12 個月中，我們對成本控制的不懈關注使我們能夠實現持續改進的調整後 EBITDA。當我們展望 2024 年時，我想明確的是，我們的經營範圍保持不變，即使環境變得更加複雜，我們也預計將實現大幅調整後 EBITDA 成長。我們在 2023 年已經證明，我們知道如何利用正確的槓桿來實現獲利成長。正如我們在投資者日分享的那樣，我們最終致力於實現中等個位數的利潤率，最終達到 10% 以上，所有這些目標都是隨著時間的推移最大限度地產生自由現金流。

Thank you. And now Niraj, Steve and I will be happy to take your questions.

謝謝。現在，尼拉吉、史蒂夫和我將很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

你的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Chris Horvers。

So 1 question, 2 parts. So first, on the fourth quarter. Is there a reason why we wouldn't see some sequential improvement in the adjusted EBITDA rate? I know you talked about low single digit, but you continue to gain traction in the initiatives that you're referring to and some of the cost savings still have yet to flow through, I think, in the P&L. And then as you think about next year, I think you made a comment earlier this year that at this current level of business, you should reach adjusted mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA. So you think about an environment that's maybe a little bit tougher. If we just held these revenues, do you get to perhaps the lower end of that range?

所以 1 個問題，2 個部分。首先是第四季。我們沒有看到調整後 EBITDA 率有連續改善的原因是什麼？我知道您談到了低個位數，但您所提到的舉措繼續受到關注，我認為，一些成本節約仍然尚未體現在損益表中。然後，當您考慮明年時，我認為您在今年早些時候發表了評論，即在目前的業務水平上，您應該達到調整後的中個位數調整後 EBITDA。所以你會考慮一個可能更艱難的環境。如果我們只持有這些收入，您是否會達到該範圍的下限？

Chris, you have both Niraj and Kate here. Maybe I'll just start on speaking to the guidance for the fourth quarter. And then as we think into sort of how some of this flows through for next year. And then Niraj, I'll pass it off to you. On the fourth quarter, you started Chris is saying you've continued to achieve those cost savings. And certainly, we feel very good about the progress that we're making there. And you can see some of that in the guidance. We obviously continue to up the gross margin guidance range. We've continued to bring down the SOTG&A guidance range, and that's reflective of those initiatives panning out.

克里斯，尼拉吉和凱特都在這裡。也許我會開始談論第四季的指導。然後當我們思考明年其中的一些內容如何流動。然後 Niraj，我會把它傳給你。在第四季度，克里斯說您開始繼續實現這些成本節約。當然，我們對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常滿意。您可以在指南中看到其中的一些內容。我們顯然會繼續提高毛利率指引範圍。我們持續降低 SOTG&A 指導範圍，這反映了這些措施的成效。

If you look at Q4 specifically, what we're reflecting there is, as we've spoken about in the past on the gross margin, we're really trying to maximize growing profit -- gross profit dollars on a multi-quarter basis. Q4 tends to be a great quarter for us to bring new customers in. It's a highly promotional quarter. It's a great time for us to get somebody on to the platform and then they come back and repeat and spend more dollars with us. And so we're just balancing those pieces as we think about, in particular, that gross margin for the fourth quarter.

如果你具體看看第四季度，我們所反映的是，正如我們過去談到的毛利率一樣，我們確實在努力最大化不斷增長的利潤——多季度的毛利美元。第四季往往是我們吸引新客戶的好季度。這是一個促銷力度很大的季度。對我們來說，這是一個讓某人進入該平台的好時機，然後他們會回來重複並與我們一起花費更多的錢。因此，當我們特別考慮第四季的毛利率時，我們只是在平衡這些部分。

If you think about sort of 2024, obviously, we haven't guided to that. But perhaps I can provide reflecting on that thought model that we spoke about before, I can maybe sort of reference that and speak to how that might plan out in your sort of flat revenue example there. You're absolutely right that you should expect to continue to see ongoing improvement in EBITDA, and that's really driven by a few factors. We started the year saying we were taking out about $1 billion in cost. If you start on that gross margin line, we said we'd achieve over $500 million taken out of that line in 2023. And you will see that by the end of this fourth quarter, where we'll reinvest some of that.

如果你考慮一下 2024 年，顯然我們還沒有對此進行指導。但也許我可以反思我們之前討論過的思維模型，也許我可以參考一下，並談談如何在你的固定收入範例中進行規劃。您認為 EBITDA 會持續改善，這是絕對正確的，這實際上是由幾個因素驅動的。我們在年初表示將支出約 10 億美元的成本。如果你從毛利率線開始，我們說我們將在 2023 年從該毛利率線中實現超過 5 億美元的目標。到第四季末你會看到這一點，我們將重新投資其中的一部分。

But let's say, for this example, you take the exit rate of the fourth quarter on gross margin and use that in 2024, that would be a nice step up from where we were in 2023. If you look at the next line item on CS&M, we spoke about taking some of the cost out of that in that January restructuring that you did. You've seen that moderate nicely throughout this year. Again, you could take sort of where that's landing and assume some further improvement there in 2024 as those cost actions fully materialize and you've got the appropriate leverage there.

但假設，對於這個例子，您採用第四季度毛利率的退出率並在2024 年使用該值，這將是我們在2023 年的基礎上的一個很好的進步。如果您查看CS&M 上的下一個項目，我們談到了您在一月份進行的重組中去除了一些成本。今年你已經很好地看到了這一點。同樣，你可以根據目前的情況，假設 2024 年會出現一些進一步的改進，因為這些成本行動完全實現，並且你在那裡擁有了適當的槓桿作用。

Then if you move down to ad spend, that's one where we said in that over $1 billion cost takeouts, we were pulling out some of the higher advertising spend as a percent of net revenue investments. And I think if you look at sort of the average of 2023, that place is reflective of the efficiency that we've been driving in that line. So again, in your model of flat revenue in '24, you could probably use that.

然後，如果你轉向廣告支出，這就是我們在超過 10 億美元的成本支出中所說的，我們將拿出一些較高的廣告支出作為淨收入投資的百分比。我認為，如果你看一下 2023 年的平均水平，你會發現這個數字反映了我們在這方面一直在推動的效率。因此，在您 24 年收入持平的模型中，您可能可以使用它。

And then if you go down to SOTG&A, you've seen some really big movement on that line throughout '23, obviously, starting with those January restructurings and the full impact of that run rating through plus the combination of the incremental movements that we've made on that line quarter-on-quarter. Obviously, you saw that materialize again this quarter with that $459 million and the further efficiency was driven there.

然後，如果您查看SOTG&A，您會發現整個23 年期間該線上出現了一些非常大的變動，顯然，從1 月份的重組開始，以及運行評級的全面影響，再加上我們的增量變動的組合。我們在這條線上季度環比地取得了進展。顯然，您看到本季再次實現了 4.59 億美元，並且進一步提高了效率。

So again, if you look at full year '24, you could take the exit rate of that in the Q3 of -- Q4 of '23 and applied that into full year '24, and you'd see really nice flow-through. And as I said in the prepared remarks, substantial EBITDA growth just from those cost savings fully run rating through. So I think you're thinking about it in a very productive way. Obviously, you'll make your own assumptions around where revenue goes. But I believe we've demonstrated this year, we're very committed to these levers and pulling the right levers to drive EBITDA growth.

所以，如果你看一下 24 年全年，你可以採用 23 年第三季第四季的退出率，並將其應用到 24 年全年，你會看到非常好的流量。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，EBITDA 的大幅成長僅來自於這些成本節約，這完全貫穿了評級。所以我認為你正在以一種非常有成效的方式思考這個問題。顯然，您將根據收入的去向做出自己的假設。但我相信今年我們已經證明，我們非常致力於這些槓桿，並利用正確的槓桿來推動 EBITDA 成長。

Yes. Maybe I'll just jump in a little bit. This is Niraj, just to add a couple of more thoughts. Because as Kate said, we're definitely committed to strong adjusted EBITDA regardless of the macro. And I think we're well poised for that because if you think about -- we talked a lot about the cost savings, Kate kind of recapped a lot of what we've done. But just the operational cost savings wasn't a onetime thing. There's a -- we just started working on our plan for next year, and there's a lot more to come. So there's a lot of gains.

是的。也許我會稍微介入一下。我是 Niraj，我想補充一些想法。因為正如凱特所說，無論宏觀情況如何，我們都絕對致力於強勁的調整後 EBITDA。我認為我們已經做好了準備，因為如果你想一想——我們談論了很多關於成本節約的問題，凱特回顧了我們所做的很多事情。但僅僅節省營運成本並不是一次性的事情。我們剛開始製定明年的計劃，還有很多工作要做。所以收穫還是很多的。

Now that will drive EBITDA, which is sort of what your question was about. But on top of that, I will encourage you to kind of just think about what's happening in the business because as you pointed out, there's nice momentum what is that momentum like? If you look sequentially, order -- you see orders are up year-over-year, 14%, you see sequential active customers from quarter-to-quarter, up 2%, that's poised to turn positive, right? We just had a great Way Day 2.

現在這將推動 EBITDA，這就是你的問題所在。但最重要的是，我會鼓勵您思考一下業務中正在發生的事情，因為正如您所指出的，有很好的動力，這種動力是什麼樣的？如果你按順序查看訂單，你會看到訂單年增 14%，你會看到活躍客戶逐季成長 2%，這一切都將轉為正值，對嗎？我們剛剛度過了愉快的第二天。

You see the share we're taking is for a broad range of market participants. And so when you start adding up, okay, well, you're seeing this momentum in customers. You're seeing it manifest in order growth. Order growth would be revenue growth of AOV were flat. AOV is at negative 9% this quarter, but that's almost through because basically, as you finish -- going to finish the rest of the curve, you're basically down to all the inflation having been driven back out, which we're pretty far along on.

你看，我們所佔據的份額是針對廣泛的市場參與者的。因此，當您開始添加時，好吧，您會在客戶中看到這種勢頭。您會看到它體現在訂單成長中。訂單成長將與 AOV 的營收成長持平。本季 AOV 為負 9%，但這幾乎已經結束，因為基本上，當你完成曲線的其餘部分時，你基本上已經下降到所有通膨都已被趕回，我們很漂亮一直走得很遠。

So there's a lot of positive momentum. And I know you're pausing to say, well, let's ignore that, let's say, revenue is flat. But I would just point to that momentum as well when you think about it. But I think if you just say revenue is flat, then you can think about all the things we've been doing as well as all the savings that are yet to come, and then I think that's the answer.

所以有很多積極的勢頭。我知道你會停下來說，好吧，讓我們忽略這一點，假設收入持平。但當你想到這一點時，我也會指出這種勢頭。但我認為，如果你只是說收入持平，那麼你可以想想我們一直在做的所有事情以及所有尚未實現的節省，然後我認為這就是答案。

Your next question comes from the line of Maria Ripps with Canaccord.

您的下一個問題來自 Maria Ripps 和 Canaccord 的線路。

I just wanted to expand on your Q4 guide. I guess are you seeing any deceleration in consumer spending so far in Q4 versus Q3? Or I guess, what's driving this sort of modest deceleration in year-over-year growth rates? Is that largely coming from lower prices or sort of -- I guess, are you seeing any maybe consumers trading down to lower-priced items or any weakness in large parcel purchases? If you can comment on that, that would be great.

我只是想擴展您的第四季指南。我想您是否認為第四季的消費者支出與第三季相比有所放緩？或者我猜，是什麼推動了同比成長率的小幅減速？這主要是由於價格下降還是——我猜，你是否看到任何消費者會轉而購買低價商品，或者大宗包裹購買方面存在任何弱點？如果您能對此發表評論，那就太好了。

Maria, it's Niraj. Let me -- so I mean, I think your question is basically the year-over-year revenue growth number Q3 to Q4. And what I would say, like, first of if you take a step back and look at what we're guiding for Q4 compared to Q3. If you look at it sequentially, a normal holiday ramp, as you'd expect Q4 to be bigger than Q3 by 9%, 10%, something like that as a holiday step up. And what you'll see in our guide is we've stepped up revenue from Q3 to Q4 growing it by 7% or 8%, I think, in the guide.

瑪麗亞，我是尼拉吉。讓我——所以我的意思是，我認為你的問題基本上是第三季到第四季的年比收入成長數字。我想說的是，首先，如果你退後一步，看看我們對第四季和第三季的指導。如果你按順序看，這是一個正常的假期成長，因為你預計第四季將比第三季成長 9%、10%，就像假期的成長一樣。您將在我們的指南中看到，我們的收入從第三季到第四季增加了 7% 或 8%，我認為，在指南中。

And so we're actually guiding the holiday ramp. But maybe you say a little muted. And -- but it's in the normal band. And so why a little muted? Well, we're in a promotional environment, and most of the revenue in the fourth quarter is always ahead of us. But in this case, when you do it on a promotional adjusted basis, it's virtually all ahead of us. We've had one promotion so far, which was Way Day 2, which performed very well, in fact, beat our internal forecast and expectations. So we're seeing all the signs of say that, that will work. But we have that ahead of us. So we're guiding it slightly muted, but still with an eye to say we think we're going to do very well. There's a lot of growth there, and we're going to take share.

所以我們其實是在引導假期的成長。但也許你說得有點小聲。而且——但它在正常範圍內。那為什麼有點靜音呢？嗯，我們處於促銷環境，第四季的大部分收入始終領先我們。但在這種情況下，當你在促銷調整的基礎上做到這一點時，一切實際上都在我們前面。到目前為止，我們已經進行了一次促銷活動，即“Way Day 2”，效果非常好，事實上，超出了我們的內部預測和預期。所以我們看到所有跡象表明這會起作用。但我們前面已經有這樣的事情了。因此，我們的指導略顯低調，但仍然著眼於表明我們認為我們會做得很好。那裡有很大的增長，我們將分享份額。

Now year-over-year, your question is why does that compress then if you're guiding it positively? And the answer is, if you remember, when we got the recipe back intact and we started taking share and we were back to good form, that was at the end of summer, beginning of Q4 last year. So this Q4 will be the first year you're comping year-over-year on us being back to a strong position, the same way for 19 years, 17, 18 years before COVID, we grew the business from 0 share to the $9 billion we had in revenue pre-COVID. Well, so we're back intact, and we're growing.

現在，年復一年，你的問題是，如果你積極引導，為什麼會壓縮？答案是，如果你還記得的話，當我們完整地恢復配方並開始分享並恢復良好狀態時，那是在夏末，去年第四季初。因此，今年第四季將是我們恢復強勢地位的第一年，就像在新冠疫情爆發之前的 19 年、17 年、18 年一樣，我們的業務從 0 股增長到 9 美元在新冠疫情爆發之前，我們的收入為10 億美元。好吧，所以我們完好無損地回來了，我們正在成長。

So the way to think about it is, of course, you'd have a slight kind of a compression of the year-over-year rate before it would then expand again. And what you really care about is, hey, are you taking market share? What's the sequential customer number look like? Hey, where am I in this AOV annualizing? Because then the order growth is basically the revenue comp. And I think if you look at it that way, kind of analyze what's the momentum in the business, you obviously see the momentum is gaining.

因此，考慮這個問題的方法當然是，在同比率再次擴張之前，你會先稍微壓縮一下。你真正關心的是，嘿，你是否佔據了市場份額？連續的客戶編號是什麼樣的？嘿，我在這個 AOV 年度報告中處於什麼位置？因為那時訂單成長基本上就是收入補償。我認為，如果你以這種方式看待它，分析業務的動力，你顯然會看到動力正在增強。

If you look at it year-over-year, you then need to adjust for what happened in the third quarter last year, what happened in the fourth quarter last year. I think that's where the noise comes in. So I'd encourage you to look at it both ways. And I think if you look at it sequentially, you'd say, oh, wow, these guys are really -- and then what's a tough market? These guys are really kind of moving along really well. They're well positioned for meaningful growth when the category recovers. And in the meantime, they're getting significant share gains. It's driven by the order strength. And on top of that, we talked about how we're committed to strong adjusted EBITDA regardless of the macro. So I think you're seeing it all come together there.

如果你逐年查看，那麼你需要根據去年第三季和第四季發生的情況進行調整。我認為這就是噪音產生的原因。所以我鼓勵你從兩個方面來看待它。我想如果你按順序看的話，你會說，哦，哇，這些人真的是——那麼什麼是艱難的市場呢？這些傢伙真的進展得很好。當該類別復甦時，他們已做好充分準備實現有意義的成長。同時，他們的份額也大幅成長。它是由訂單強度驅動的。最重要的是，我們討論了無論宏觀情況如何，我們如何致力於強勁的調整後 EBITDA。所以我想你會看到這一切都聚集在一起。

Your next question comes from the line of Ygal Arounian with Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

Maybe just digging on the customers in AOV and the macro environment a little bit. As AOV normalizes here and you're seeing that kind of deflationary; point. Is -- do you see that driving any of the incremental customer growth and order growth, meaning is prices normalizing, driving a better environment, if you could just parse that out a little bit? And then it's been a good job kind of highlighting a lot of the questions of investors and one of the main ones that keeps coming up on our end from investors that you didn't address is just on international and continuing to see headwinds there and challenges in that market, still not getting back to normal. Maybe if you could address your views there and if that's changed at all as we maybe get into a softer environment here?

也許只是稍微挖掘一下AOV中的客戶和宏觀環境。隨著 AOV 在這裡正常化，你會看到這種通貨緊縮；觀點。您是否認為推動客戶成長和訂單成長的任何增量，意味著價格正常化，推動更好的環境，如果您能稍微解析一下的話？然後，這是一項很好的工作，強調了投資者的許多問題，而投資者不斷向我們提出的主要問題之一就是您沒有提到的國際問題，並且繼續看到那裡的阻力和挑戰那個市場仍然沒有恢復正常。也許您可以在那裡表達您的觀點，並且這種情況是否會改變，因為我們可能會在這裡進入一個更溫和的環境？

Sure. Let me start, and then, Kate, if you have anything, you can just jump in and add it. So let me do the first question first and then we'll do the international one second. So first, I think you have a question around AOV normalization and does that drive order growth? I think the way to think about it is, the AOV normalization, what that is showing you is that things are getting back to normal. What does normal mean? It means that no retailer has an advantage over the other on relative price, relative availability, relative delivery capability other than what they themselves are doing, okay?

當然。讓我開始，然後，凱特，如果你有什麼，你可以加入並添加它。讓我先回答第一個問題，然後我們再回答國際問題。首先，我認為您對 AOV 標準化有疑問，這是否會推動訂單成長？我認為思考這個問題的方法是，AOV 標準化，這表明事情正在恢復正常。正常是什麼意思？這意味著除了他們自己正在做的事情之外，沒有零售商在相對價格、相對可用性、相對交付能力方面比其他零售商具有優勢，好嗎？

During COVID, people had weird advantages depending on how they were set up, were they brick and mortar or were they online? Do they happen to buy inventory and carry 4 months of inventory, 3 months or 6 months normally versus those odd advantages because of the scarcity of goods have really abated. So everyone is in a great position now. Everyone is in a great position on price. Everyone is in a great position on availability. Everyone is in a great position on delivery. The question is what can they do with it?

在新冠疫情期間，人們擁有奇怪的優勢，這取決於他們的設置方式，他們是實體的還是在線的？他們是否碰巧購買庫存並持有 4 個月的庫存，通常是 3 個月或 6 個月，而由於商品稀缺而帶來的奇怪優勢確實減弱了。所以現在每個人都處於一個很好的位置。每個人在價格上都處於有利地位。每個人在可用性方面都處於有利地位。每個人在交貨時都處於有利地位。問題是他們能用它做什麼？

So now what you're seeing is retailers are competing with each other, the same way, in our case, they would have from 2002 to 2019 on the strength of what they're offering customers. And so now what you're seeing are the results that basically show up based on everyone competing with each other and so who can put forward the best offer for the customer. And it's not necessary that online beats offline because in our data, we track about 90 folks, we only see 3 if you look back to the 2019 period through now, having taken share.

所以現在你看到的是零售商正在相互競爭，同樣的，在我們的例子中，他們從 2002 年到 2019 年都會憑藉為客戶提供的產品的優勢進行競爭。現在您看到的結果基本上是基於每個人相互競爭以及誰可以為客戶提供最佳報價而顯示的。線上不一定要打敗線下，因為在我們的數據中，我們追蹤了大約 90 個人，如果你回顧 2019 年至今，我們只看到 3 個人，並佔據了份額。

You see us taking significant share, you see Amazon taking share, and you see HomeGoods taking share. HomeGoods is really a brick-and-mortar retailer. In fact, they pulled out of online recently, but I think it was kind of a de minimis piece of their business, but they're the ones they outcompete in Bed Bath. And as Bed Bath went out of business, they took that share. So there are different ways to get share. And that's what you see playing out. So the way I encourage to think about it, we're in a tough recession environment. That's 2 out of every 10 years. The market is down mid- to high teens in dollars. There's that deflation that everyone has.

你會看到我們佔據了很大的份額，你看到亞馬遜佔據了份額，你看到 HomeGoods 佔據了份額。 HomeGoods 確實是一家實體零售商。事實上，他們最近退出了線上業務，但我認為這只是他們業務中的一個微不足道的部分，但他們是他們在床上浴場競爭中獲勝的人。當 Bed Bath 倒閉時，他們拿走了那部分份額。因此，有不同的方式來獲得份額。這就是你所看到的結果。因此，我鼓勵人們思考這個問題，我們正處於嚴峻的經濟衰退環境中。每10年就有2次。以美元計價的市價下跌了十幾位數。每個人都會經歷通貨緊縮。

So orders are not down by quite that much. But if you think there's 10 points of deflation, orders might be down 5% or something maybe 7%, maybe deflation is 12 points. And there's some mix in there. But you see our orders up 14%. So you see us kind of gaining ground in the market. You see sequentially customers up 2%. So you're seeing them increasingly picking us. You're seeing that in the market share data. So think of it as we're in a normal environment, and we have been for approximately a year. And what you're now seeing is which retailers can take share in that environment.

所以訂單並沒有下降那麼多。但如果你認為通貨緊縮有 10 個點，訂單可能會減少 5% 或 7%，也許通貨緊縮是 12 個點。那裡有一些混合。但你會看到我們的訂單增加了 14%。所以你會看到我們在市場上取得了一定的進展。您會看到客戶數量連續增加了 2%。所以你會看到他們越來越多地選擇我們。您可以在市場佔有率數據中看到這一點。因此，請把它想像成我們處於正常環境中，並且我們已經這樣大約一年了。您現在看到的是哪些零售商可以在這種環境中分享份額。

And if you track dozens and dozens of them listen to the strategies, you can see then in the results, how that's playing out. And I think that's going to continue to play out, both in this recession environment, but also as the category recovers, you're going to say, who is well positioned for meaningful growth. That's where you're going to see that we're very well poised for that. And so that's what you're going to see happen.

如果你追蹤幾十個他們，聽聽他們的策略，你就可以在結果中看到效果如何。我認為這將繼續發揮作用，無論是在經濟衰退的環境下，還是隨著該類別的復甦，你會說，誰處於有利地位，可以實現有意義的成長。在那裡你會看到我們已經做好了充分的準備。這就是你將會看到的情況。

But in the meantime, we're going to keep taking share. And that's why you say why are we committed to strong adjusted EBITDA regardless of the macro? The answer is, well, we're gaining momentum and share in a tough market, and we have more cost savings coming. So we can do well now. But all that does is position you better for when things turn around and things really rip. And it's all getting -- the share gain driven by order strength is really the thing to keep coming back to.

但同時，我們將繼續佔據份額。這就是為什麼你說為什麼無論宏​​觀情況如何，我們都致力於強勁的調整後 EBITDA？答案是，我們正在艱難的市場中獲得動力和份額，我們將節省更多成本。所以我們現在可以做得很好。但所有這些所做的一切都是為了讓你在事情逆轉、事情真正破裂時處於更好的位置。而這一切都在發生——由訂單強度驅動的份額成長確實是值得不斷關注的問題。

Kate, anything on that before we go to that second part?

凱特，在我們開始第二部分之前有什麼事情嗎？

Yes. No, I would echo everything that you've said. I think you're absolutely right that AOV normalization certainly has driven order growth and customers. You've seen that sequential improvement in customers in the LTM active customer number. And you've, of course, seen that order growth number continue to grow.

是的。不，我會附和你所說的一切。我認為您所說的完全正確，AOV 標準化確實推動了訂單和客戶的成長。您已經看到 LTM 活躍客戶數量的連續成長。當然，您已經看到訂單數量持續成長。

I'd just point out on sort of the last point Niraj was making on market share and where the category is, we're obviously up 4% in the quarter with the category down mid- to high teens, if you assume at some point when the category returns to growth and normalizes that gives you very significant growth for us up in the high teens. And as we've spoken about before, that flows very nicely through to EBITDA, and we're poised for that momentum. I think you had another question on the International segment.

我只是想指出 Niraj 關於市場份額和該類別的最後一點，如果您假設在某個時刻，我們在本季度顯然增長了 4%，而該類別則下降了中高位。當該類別恢復增長並正常化時，這會為我們帶來非常顯著的成長。正如我們之前談到的，這很好地轉化為 EBITDA，我們已經為這種勢頭做好了準備。我認為您對國際部分還有另一個問題。

Yes. Exactly. So on that, let me -- again, I'll start, Kate, and you can jump in. That segment is like 10% to 15% of our revenue or thereabouts. Those are -- that's kind of the businesses outside the United States. And we mentioned how getting back to form on our recipe is the predecessor activity for taking share gaining ground. And again, you see the share grade driven by order strength and you'd see all the positioning that you'd want to see in terms of how we're doing. Well, on that, what I would say is that each of the countries is a different state in the recipe fully being back intact. But as we've been getting it back intact, we're seeing the momentum we want.

是的。確切地。那麼，讓我——再說一遍，我要開始了，凱特，你可以加入進來。這個部分大約占我們收入的 10% 到 15% 左右。這些是美國以外的企業。我們也提到如何恢復我們的配方是獲得市場份額的先行活動。再次，您會看到由訂單強度驅動的股票等級，並且您會看到您希望看到的關於我們的做法的所有定位。好吧，關於這一點，我想說的是，每個國家在配方上都處於不同的狀態，完全恢復原狀。但隨著我們將其完好無損地恢復，我們看到了我們想要的動力。

And so what I would point out is that the KPIs that we would use to measure the success of those businesses are not necessarily evident to you. And honestly, we're very focused on making sure that every dollar we spend goes really far. And so we're not interested in continuing to invest in something that we don't think is going to give us a gain, and we've done a good job of stripping out a lot of those costs, and we'll continue to do that. But we are pretty excited about our smaller businesses, whether it be Perigold, which is in the luxury space, small but continues to take share at a nice pace.

因此，我要指出的是，我們用來衡量這些業務成功的 KPI 對您來說不一定是顯而易見的。老實說，我們非常注重確保我們花的每一塊錢都能發揮真正的作用。因此，我們沒有興趣繼續投資那些我們認為不會為我們帶來收益的東西，而且我們在削減大量成本方面做得很好，我們將繼續去做。但我們對我們的小型業務感到非常興奮，無論是奢侈品領域的 Perigold，規模雖小，但仍以良好的速度佔據市場份額。

What we've done with specialty retail brands, which compete in the specialty segment. Wayfair Professional is one of the bigger of the smaller businesses that's clipping along nicely and then the international countries. And so we believe that the same model works there. There's a bit of a lag in timing. But again, you see losses compressing. And what I think is I would say that folks are focused on that segment. It's a little bit of missing the forest for the trees as it kind of my view on it.

我們對在專業領域競爭的專業零售品牌所做的事情。 Wayfair Professional 是小型企業中規模較大的企業之一，在國際市場上發展勢頭良好。所以我們相信同樣的模型也適用。時間上有點滯後。但同樣，你會看到損失在壓縮。我認為人們都關注這個細分市場。這有點只見樹木不見森林，因為這是我的看法。

Yes, I think that's right. I would just add that there's nothing that we structurally see about the international market that suggests it should operate over time in any way that's different than the nice EBITDA that you're seeing in the U.S. market, and we'll continue to invest for growth there, of course. But we also were mindful of the cost structure there. And as we spoke about in general, we took out these costs, those impacted us globally, not just in the U.S.

是的，我認為這是對的。我想補充一點，我們從結構上看國際市場沒有任何跡象表明它應該以任何不同於你在美國市場看到的良好 EBITDA 的方式隨著時間的推移而運作，我們將繼續投資以促進增長當然是在那裡。但我們也注意到那裡的成本結構。正如我們總體上談到的，我們剔除了這些成本，這些成本影響了我們在全球範圍內的情況，而不僅僅是在美國。

Your next question comes from the line of Anna Andreeva with Needham.

你的下一個問題來自安娜·安德烈耶娃和李約瑟的對話。

Great. Two questions from us. You mentioned some of the category callouts with mattresses and also pets. Just curious in aggregate, how did big ticket versus smaller more decor type of items perform during the quarter? And is the decel you're seeing quarter-to-date driven by slower big-ticket purchasing, just given the macro? And then secondly, as a follow-up to Chris' earlier question, so should we think if revenues are flat in '24 year-over-year, you could be at the low end of that mid-single-digit margin goal that you guys talked about?

偉大的。我們提出兩個問題。您提到了一些有關床墊和寵物的類別標註。只是好奇總的來說，大件商品與小件裝飾類型的商品在本季的表現如何？就宏觀而言，您所看到的季度至今的減速是否是由大宗採購放緩推動的？其次，作為克里斯之前問題的後續，我們是否應該認為，如果 24 年收入同比持平，您可能處於中個位數利潤率目標的低端夥計們談到了？

Yes. Let me start with some of your questions on big ticket versus small ticket and then maybe Kate can answer the guidance question. When I say on big ticket or small ticket. You could see this -- well, I guess, maybe you can't see this in AOV because again, you see the overall effect of the deceleration -- not deceleration, the normalization of AOV with the inflation turning into deflation and coming back out. Basically, no, there's no real mix effect there. So we're seeing strength across the board.

是的。讓我先回答一下你們關於大票和小票的一些問題，然後凱特也許可以回答指導問題。當我說大票或小票時。你可以看到這一點——嗯，我想，也許你在AOV 中看不到這一點，因為你再次看到了減速的總體影響——而不是減速，AOV 的正常化，通貨膨脹轉變為通貨緊縮，然後又回來了。基本上，不，那裡沒有真正的混合效果。所以我們看到了全面的實力。

Part of that is the price elasticity. When that big item which typically is bulkier and has a high ocean-freight factor gets hit with those costs, it really drives up the price of that item a lot. When that comes back out, that item becomes more price attractive that basically helps that item take share. So we've basically done well across the board. There's no real mix there. And then you mentioned a deceleration in Q4. I just want to comment again. If you look at it sequentially, you see a strong holiday ramp into Q4.

其中一部分是價格彈性。當通常體積較大且海運係數較高的大件商品受到這些成本的影響時，它確實會大幅推高該商品的價格。當這一點回來時，該產品的價格會變得更具吸引力，這基本上有助於該產品佔據市場份額。所以我們基本上在各方面都做得很好。那裡沒有真正的混合。然後您提到第四季度的減速。我只是想再評論一下。如果您按順序查看，您會發現第四季度假期出現強勁增長。

So I think the deceleration is based on assuming the year-over-year comps in Q3 and Q4 were both normal flat comps, and they're quite different from each other because, again, Q4 last year is when we started taking share as a much stronger comp. So as you would expect, even if we have strong comps continuing, that compresses before it expands again. That's where the 2% sequential customer count, the strong order growth, but all these other numbers kind of point to what I think is really happening. So just keep that in mind. I would model it sequentially. You can also model a top down.

因此，我認為減速是基於假設第三季度和第四季度的同比比較都是正常的平坦比較，並且它們彼此之間有很大不同，因為去年第四季度我們開始將份額作為更強的比較。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，即使我們繼續保持強勁的競爭，但在再次擴張之前也會受到壓縮。這就是 2% 的連續客戶數量、強勁的訂單成長，但所有這些其他數字都表明了我認為真正發生的情況。所以請記住這一點。我會按順序對其進行建模。您也可以建立自上而下的模型。

But if you model sequentially and then impute year-over-year, I think you better see a better trend of what's happening, and it sort of explains what I think otherwise may not. And then so I'll let Kate comment on that, and then Kate can also comment because you had a question about in 2024, what level could EBITDA be given revenue at the low end. I think that's probably because as we mentioned, there's a lot of cost savings still to come. And so I don't know if you want to guide that or not.

但如果你按順序建模，然後逐年進行估算，我認為你更好地看到正在發生的事情的更好趨勢，並且它在某種程度上解釋了我認為否則可能無法解釋的事情。然後我會讓凱特對此發表評論，然後凱特也可以發表評論，因為你有一個關於 2024 年 EBITDA 低端收入水平的問題。我認為這可能是因為正如我們所提到的，仍有大量成本節省可以實現。所以我不知道你是否想指導這一點。

And as you know, we don't guide to 2024. I would point you to following Chris' question, I think we talked through some of the puts and takes on that thought model. And really seeing in 2024, obviously, the full impact of that over $1 billion of cost savings up and down the P&L and work with that sort of from gross margin on down and the benefit of that should certainly drive substantial EBITDA growth beyond that, we haven't commented on 2024 guidance.

如您所知，我們不會指導 2024 年。我想請您注意克里斯的問題，我認為我們討論了對該思維模型的一些看法。顯然，到 2024 年，超過 10 億美元的成本節省對損益表的全面影響，以及毛利率的下降，其好處肯定會推動 EBITDA 的大幅成長。尚未對 2024 年指引發表評論。

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自西蒙古特曼 (Simeon Gutman) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

I want to ask a question about -- a little bit about the fourth quarter and then second about your posture around, I guess, promotion and ad spend versus sales. So first, the fourth quarter the chances of it getting more promotional, curious how you think about that? And then given your posture around margin, I guess, preserving margin over sales here, it sounds like you wouldn't dip your toe into that, but can you give us a sense how vendors are approaching it? Would you share some promotion versus them? And then in terms of advertising, are you inclined to ramp that up if you saw that market share was getting worse for some reason because of the promotional backdrop?

我想問一個關於第四季的問題，然後是關於你對促銷和廣告支出與銷售的態度。首先，第四季它獲得更多促銷的機會，好奇你對此有何看法？然後，考慮到您對利潤率的態度，我想，在此處保留銷售利潤率，聽起來您不會涉足這一領域，但您能否讓我們了解供應商如何處理它？您會分享一些與他們相比的促銷嗎？然後在廣告方面，如果您發現市場份額由於促銷背景而變得越來越差，您是否傾向於加強？

Yes. Simeon, so what I would say is that we are expecting Q4 to be promotional. And that's part of why our guide on the sequential ramp of that 7%, 8% instead of 10% is a little more conservative is obviously it's hard with the promotional season really ahead of us other than Way Day 2. Way Day 2 beat forecast did very well. So that was a positive sign. That said, you have the whole kind of holiday season more or less ahead of you. And there's -- the macro, it's hard to read the headlines and say, oh, this is a boisterous time where everyone's jubilant, right?

是的。 Simeon，所以我想說的是，我們預計第四季會進行促銷。這就是為什麼我們對 7%、8% 而不是 10% 的連續成長的指導有點保守，因為除了第 2 天之外，促銷季節顯然很難真正提前。第 2 天超出了預測做得很好。所以這是一個正面的訊號。也就是說，整個假期或多或少都在前方。從宏觀上看，很難讀到頭條新聞並說，哦，這是一個每個人都興高采烈的熱鬧時刻，對吧？

So I would say we are expecting to be promotional. Our merchandising calendar, everything we've worked out with suppliers, our merchandising plans reflect what we expect to be a very promotional season. If you pull up the home page of any of our sites, you can get that feeling right now, pull up any of the app. So you can see that we're leaning in on that. We're set up for that, all the guidance already accounts for that. Now could it be more promotional than we're expecting? It's possible, although we feel like we have a good feel of what's happening in the markets.

所以我想說我們期待促銷。我們的銷售日曆、我們與供應商制定的一切、我們的銷售計劃都反映了我們對促銷季節的預期。如果您打開我們任何一個網站的主頁，您現在可以感受到，打開任何一個應用程式。所以你可以看到我們正在依靠這一點。我們已經為此做好了準備，所有指導都已經考慮到了這一點。現在它的促銷力道會比我們預期的還要大嗎？這是有可能的，儘管我們覺得我們對市場正在發生的事情有很好的了解。

If it is more promotional, do we think that would hurt us? Well, who knows. I think we've got a very good posture, and this is why we've taken share over the last year to gain back anything we lost and then a lot more than that, right? We're at all-time high. So I think we're set up really well.

如果更多地進行促銷，我們認為這會傷害我們嗎？好吧，誰知道呢。我認為我們的姿態非常好，這就是為什麼我們在過去一年中奪回了份額，贏回了我們失去的一切，然後又得到了更多，對嗎？我們正處於歷史最高水準。所以我認為我們的安排非常好。

Ad spend, we do not think of something you just use as a dial to make yourself feel good on revenue. So we've really scrubbed ad spend to make sure every dollar works really hard for us. So we would spend dollars if we would think that the return we would get would be at that higher threshold that we've now established. But we're not going to -- it's not -- the outcome is not measured in market share. Market share is something you then end up getting if you did it well.

廣告支出，我們不會認為您只是將其用作錶盤來讓自己對收入感到滿意。因此，我們確實削減了廣告支出，以確保每一美元都為我們真正發揮作用。因此，如果我們認為我們將獲得的回報將達到我們現在設定的更高閾值，我們就會花費美元。但我們不會——事實並非如此——結果不是以市佔率來衡量的。如果你做得好的話，你最終會獲得市場份額。

And so ad spend is yet another cost line that we expect to work really hard for us. And then as you can tell, we've reduced it. So obviously, revenue growth would be even far higher than it is now if we didn't reduce it. But we think it was the right move to make -- expect every dollar to work harder. We're going to keep that expectation. We're seeing good results from that expectation. That's the way we think about that.

因此，廣告支出是我們希望為我們真正努力工作的另一條成本線。然後正如你所知，我們已經減少了它。顯然，如果我們不減少收入成長，收入成長將遠高於現在。但我們認為這是正確的舉措——希望每一塊錢都能發揮更大作用。我們將保持這種期望。我們從這項期望中看到了良好的結果。這就是我們的想法。

I just -- I'll add one thought on the promotion piece because I do want to point out that even if the market does get more promotional, our gross margin is resilient. So unlike other retailers where you're taking inventory and you're discounting that, that you've already acquired. In our case, typically, our suppliers are reducing wholesales and we're passing on that benefit to the customers. But you've seen throughout the year the gross margin is actually grown even in the face of that because it's not coming from us dropping that price. And so I just -- that is a bit of a nuance to our model, and I think one of our benefits, frankly, in our structure.

我只是——我會在促銷方面添加一個想法，因為我確實想指出，即使市場確實得到更多促銷，我們的毛利率仍然具有彈性。因此，與其他零售商不同的是，您要盤點庫存並對其進行折扣，您已經購買了庫存。就我們而言，通常情況下，我們的供應商會減少批發量，而我們會將這種好處轉嫁給客戶。但你已經看到，即使面對這種情況，全年毛利率實際上仍在增長，因為它不是來自我們降低價格。所以我只是 - 這對我們的模式來說有點細微差別，坦率地說，我認為我們的好處之一在於我們的結構。

The other obvious point to is obviously the inventory in the supply chain, the inventory we're selling is owned by our suppliers as well, which is a slightly different dynamic than most retailers. But I think that partnership with our suppliers is part of why we win as well.

另一個明顯的問題顯然是供應鏈中的庫存，我們銷售的庫存也由我們的供應商擁有，這與大多數零售商的動態略有不同。但我認為與供應商的合作也是我們獲勝的部分原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Oliver Wintermantel with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Oliver Wintermantel 和 Evercore ISI。

You guys did a great job in the repeat customer or from repeat customers growing again, but that would imply that the orders from new customers continues to decline year-over-year. Could you address that? Or when do you think that, that improves? And what can you actually do to improve that?

你們在回頭客或回頭客再次成長方面做得很好，但這意味著新客戶的訂單繼續逐年下降。你能解決這個問題嗎？還是你認為什麼時候會有所改善？您實際上可以做些什麼來改善這一點？

Yes. So I guess the overall point and Niraj, feel free to jump in, is that sort of we are very excited to see repeat customers growing. I think that speaks to the strength in the model. and the benefits that we're getting as -- or the percentage of repeat growing. I think that speaks to the strength of the model and the benefits that we get as people experience the improved offering and come back and shop with us again. I don't -- as far as what does that foretell for new customers, certainly, we're not seeing any weakness there. And in fact, LTM active customers is actually growing sequentially. So our overall customer base is improving.

是的。所以我想整體的觀點是，Niraj，請隨意插話，我們很高興看到回頭客的成長。我認為這說明了模型的強度。以及我們獲得的好處——或重複生長的百分比。我認為這說明了該模式的優勢以及當人們體驗改進的產品並再次與我們一起購物時我們所獲得的好處。我不知道——至於這對新客戶預示著什麼，當然，我們沒有看到任何弱點。事實上，LTM 活躍客戶實際上正在連續成長。所以我們的整體客戶群正在改善。

Yes. Let me just -- sorry, Kate, let me just chime in a couple of things and then keep going. But -- so that repeat percentage, right, to 80% of orders or repeat orders, that is of all customers who bought ever, okay? And so obviously, we've been around for 20 years. We have a lot of customers. If you bought ever, you're in that number as a repeat order. The active customer number means you have to have bought within the last 12 months. So you could have people who bought in 2015. And if they buy again after being unengaged for 8 years, it would still be a repeat order. But they would come into the active customer number after not being there. .

是的。讓我——抱歉，凱特，讓我插話幾句，然後繼續。但是——所以重複百分比，對吧，80%的訂單或重複訂單，這是所有曾經購買過的客戶的，好嗎？顯然，我們已經存在 20 年了。我們有很多客戶。如果您曾經購買過，那麼您就屬於重複訂單的數量。活躍客戶數量意味著您必須在過去 12 個月內購買過商品。所以你可能會有在 2015 年購買過的人。如果他們在 8 年後沒有參與過，再次購買，這仍然是重複訂單。但他們不在場後就會進入活躍客戶號碼。 。

Same thing if they weren't -- if they didn't buy in 13 months, they would also come back into the active customer number. So you need to look at those 2 numbers in different ways. There's still a lot of new customers for us to get, and we're going to -- we expect to get them over time. But there's a lot of people we've encountered over time. And so that active customer number is kind of this engaged base. They have to be bought within the last 12 months.

如果他們不這樣做，同樣的情況 - 如果他們在 13 個月內沒有購買，他們也會重新成為活躍客戶數量。所以你需要以不同的方式看待這兩個數字。我們仍然有很多新客戶需要獲得，而且我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們會獲得這些客戶。但隨著時間的推移，我們遇到了很多人。因此，活躍客戶數量就是這種參與基礎。它們必須在過去 12 個月內購買。

Are they buying? And then obviously, if they buy again and they buy again, that's the flywheel that drives the business. That's where I mentioned, there's a 2% sequential growth in the active customer number. That number is poised to turn positive. And we are still, at this point, only getting $550, I think it's $540 per customer per year. So we still have a very low share of wallet. So there's -- that's where there's a lot of juice.

他們買嗎？顯然，如果他們再次購買，那麼這就是驅動業務的飛輪。這就是我提到的，活躍客戶數量較上季增加了 2%。這個數字有望轉正。目前，我們仍然只獲得 550 美元，我認為每位客戶每年 540 美元。所以我們的錢包份額仍然很低。所以那裡有很多果汁。

I agree with all that. Oli, just one thing I want to point out. I think you implied that new customers were weakening. But we don't -- we give you the KPIs and then you have to do a little bit of math. And so recognizing that we've been on the call for 55 minutes, you probably haven't been able to do the math. But if you take the percentage of repeat and then back into what that implies for new orders, you'd actually see new orders growing quarter-on-quarter. So you would see -- or sorry, growing year-over-year. So you'd see that nice improvement actually in new orders and new customers. And we continue to be excited about what that implies for the strength of the offering.

我同意這一切。奧利，我只想指出一件事。我認為你暗示新客戶正在減弱。但我們不會——我們給你 KPI，然後你必須做一些數學計算。考慮到我們已經通話了 55 分鐘，您可能無法算算。但如果你考慮重複百分比，然後再考慮這對新訂單意味著什麼，你實際上會看到新訂單逐季度增長。所以你會看到——或者抱歉，逐年增長。所以你會看到新訂單和新客戶實際上有了很大的改善。我們仍然對這對產品的強度意味著什麼感到興奮。

Right. So new orders is over -- it's like $2-ish million. And so basically -- yes, that's why I was trying to explain the definition of the active customer numbers separate from the repeat order stat because you could actually figure out a lot if you use them, but you have to understand how they're defined separately from each other. So we're gaining a lot of new customers. But what I think is even more exciting than that is, frankly, that the customers we have are being engaged in coming back to that active customer number.

正確的。所以新訂單已經結束了——大約是 200 萬美元左右。所以基本上 - 是的，這就是為什麼我試圖解釋活躍客戶數量的定義與重複訂單統計分開的原因，因為如果你使用它們，你實際上可以弄清楚很多，但你必須了解它們是如何定義的彼此分開。所以我們贏了很多新客戶。但坦白說，我認為比這更令人興奮的是，我們擁有的客戶正在努力恢復活躍的客戶數量。

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Matuszewski 和 Jefferies 的對話。

It's on gross margin. So for 3 consecutive quarters, you've exceeded the high end of your guide on this line item by an average of around 90 bps. So just curious kind of what are your assumptions underpinning 30% versus 31%? And why should the 4Q result not top the high end of your guide considering the recent trend?

這是毛利率。因此，連續 3 個季度，該訂單項目的指導上限平均超出了 90 個基點左右。那麼好奇的是，您支持 30% 和 31% 的假設是什麼？考慮到最近的趨勢，為什麼第四季的結果不能超過指南的高端？

Sure, John. Obviously, one thing, keep in mind, there's a different mix of goods that are sold each quarter, which create some gross margin changes as well. But let me turn it over to Kate for the specific information on the guide.

當然，約翰。顯然，請記住一件事，每個季度銷售的商品組合不同，這也會產生一些毛利率變化。但讓我把它轉給凱特，以獲取有關指南的具體資訊。

Yes. I think what you're seeing there is, again, nice flow-through of those cost savings that we laid out at the beginning of the year. We said in the second quarter that actually flowed through a bit faster than we had anticipated, and so we reinvested some of that in the third quarter. And we intend to be mindful of how we make that investment. We want to be maximizing gross profit dollars over a multi-quarter basis. In the fourth quarter, as Niraj mentioned, seasonally, there's some impact there. It's also a great quarter to bring people onto the platform.

是的。我認為您所看到的，我們在年初制定的成本節約計劃再次得到了很好的體現。我們在第二季表示，實際上流量比我們預期的要快一些，因此我們在第三季對其中的一些進行了再投資。我們打算注意我們如何進行投資。我們希望在多個季度的基礎上實現毛利最大化。正如尼拉吉所提到的，第四季度，季節性因素會產生一些影響。這也是吸引人們進入該平台的好季度。

We just had that discussion about new customers. It's a great quarter to bring new customers in and get the benefit of those customers over time. I will point out, you also, of course, saw us bring up the guidance range. So we remain confident in the direction that gross margin is going, and we're really excited about what we've been seeing there.

我們剛剛討論了新客戶。這是一個很好的季度，可以吸引新客戶並隨著時間的推移從這些客戶中獲益。我要指出的是，您當然也看到我們提出了指導範圍。因此，我們對毛利率的發展方向仍然充滿信心，而且我們對所看到的情況感到非常興奮。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session. I will turn the call back to the Wayfair team.

問答環節到此結束。我會將電話轉回 Wayfair 團隊。

I just want to say sort of thank you to all of you. We're obviously very excited for the holiday season. We're excited about the share gains we've had, the order strength, the momentum, the profitability growth, kind of the positioning we have for increased profits and everything. We thank you for your interest. And with that, we'll see you next quarter.

我只想對大家說聲謝謝。我們顯然對假期感到非常興奮。我們對我們所獲得的份額收益、訂單強度、動能、獲利成長、我們對增加利潤的定位等等感到興奮。我們感謝您的關注。就這樣，我們下個季度再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。