Wayfair Inc (W) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Wayfair's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Wayfair 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to James Lamb, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 James Lamb。謝謝。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will review our fourth quarter 2022 results. With me are Niraj Shah, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chairman; Steven Conine, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman; and Kate Gulliver, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer. We will all be available for Q&A following today's prepared remarks.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們將回顧 2022 年第四季度的業績。和我一起的是聯合創始人、首席執行官兼聯合主席 Niraj Shah； Steven Conine，聯合創始人兼聯合主席；首席財務官兼首席行政官 Kate Gulliver。在今天準備好的發言之後，我們都可以接受問答。

I would like to remind you that our call today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those regarding our future prospects, business strategies, industry trends and our financial performance, including guidance for the first quarter of 2023. All forward-looking statements made on today's call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statements will be accurate, although we believe that we have been reasonable in our expectations and assumptions.

我想提醒您，我們今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於關於我們未來前景、業務戰略、行業趨勢和我們財務業績的陳述，包括 2023 年第一季度的指導。在今天的電話會議上做出的所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天我們可獲得的信息。我們不能保證任何前瞻性陳述都是準確的，儘管我們相信我們的預期和假設是合理的。

Our 10-K for 2022 and our subsequent SEC filings identify certain factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made today. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements whether as a result of any new information, future events or otherwise.

我們 2022 年的 10-K 和我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件確定了某些可能導致公司實際結果與今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素。除非法律要求，否則我們沒有義務公開更新或修改任何這些聲明，無論是由於任何新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

Also, please note that during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as we review the company's performance, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and free cash flow. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered replacements for and should be read together with GAAP results. Please refer to the Investor Relations section of our website to obtain a copy of our earnings release and investor presentation, which contain descriptions of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures.

此外，請注意，在本次電話會議期間，我們將在審查公司業績時討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流。這些非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為替代，應與 GAAP 結果一起閱讀。請參閱我們網站的投資者關係部分，獲取我們的收益發布和投資者介紹的副本，其中包含對我們的非 GAAP 財務措施的描述以及非 GAAP 措施與最接近的可比 GAAP 措施的調節。

This call is being recorded, and a webcast will be available for replay on our IR website. I would now like to turn the call over to Niraj.

此通話正在錄製中，我們的 IR 網站上將提供網絡廣播以供重播。我現在想把電話轉給 Niraj。

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. It's great to reconnect with you today to share the details of Wayfair's fourth quarter 2022 results.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早上好。很高興今天再次與您聯繫，分享 Wayfair 2022 年第四季度業績的詳細信息。

2022 was a challenging year for our entire industry in more ways than one. As an ambitious technology-driven company, it is a challenge to manage all facets of growth in normal times, never mind unusual ones.

2022 年對我們整個行業來說是充滿挑戰的一年，從多個方面來說。作為一家雄心勃勃的技術驅動型公司，在正常時期管理增長的各個方面都是一項挑戰，更不用說不尋常的方面了。

One of the most important things we can do to be successful is to rapidly acknowledge when the facts on the ground change in real time and make the appropriate adjustments to business plans in response. You've seen us do this several times over the past year with our cost efficiency initiatives, and we feel confident that when we look back several years from now, we will view these pivots as difficult but both necessary and wise.

要取得成功，我們可以做的最重要的事情之一就是在實際情況發生實時變化時迅速確認，並相應地對業務計劃做出適當調整。您已經看到我們在過去一年中通過我們的成本效率計劃多次這樣做，並且我們相信，當我們幾年後回顧時，我們將認為這些支點是困難的，但既必要又明智。

This morning, we published our latest shareholder letter, which I would encourage you all to read on our Investor Relations site. Steve and I walked through the evolution of our business over the past 3 years, explaining the ups and downs that the pandemic and its after effects have brought to our category and to Wayfair. We conclude with a look at the future and do so through the lens of our view around capital allocation. We hope you'll find it illuminating, especially in light of the current macro environment.

今天早上，我們發布了最新的股東信，我鼓勵大家在我們的投資者關係網站上閱讀這封信。史蒂夫和我回顧了過去 3 年我們業務的發展，解釋了大流行及其後遺症給我們的品類和 Wayfair 帶來的起伏。我們以對未來的展望作為總結，並通過我們對資本配置的看法來做到這一點。我們希望您會發現它很有啟發性，尤其是考慮到當前的宏觀環境。

Our core focus is a return to our history as a company that operates in a lean and efficient manner. We note in the letter that scarcity is actually a good thing for Wayfair. Scarcity of resources drives faster alignment, more productivity and better execution, and we are beginning to see the payoff from those efforts in our Q4 results today.

我們的核心重點是回歸我們作為一家以精益和高效方式運營的公司的歷史。我們在信中指出，資源稀缺對 Wayfair 來說實際上是一件好事。資源稀缺推動了更快的協調、更高的生產力和更好的執行，我們今天開始在第四季度的業績中看到這些努力的回報。

We reported $3.1 billion of net revenue and 11 million orders in the fourth quarter. While we always expect a sequential revenue increase in the holiday quarter, looking at sequential order volume tells the full story. Our more than 25% order growth compared to Q3 is a testament to the improvements we continue to make in every part of our flywheel, which facilitates our future momentum.

我們在第四季度報告了 31 億美元的淨收入和 1100 萬份訂單。雖然我們總是預計假日季度的收入會連續增長，但看看連續的訂單量就能說明全部情況。與第三季度相比，我們超過 25% 的訂單增長證明了我們繼續在飛輪的每個部分進行改進，這有助於我們未來的發展勢頭。

We had a good holiday season with gross revenue over Cyber 5 matching what we did last year. Over the Thanksgiving weekend, we sold a mattress every 9.2 seconds. So many that if we stacked them all end to end, it would reach nearly 12 miles high.

我們度過了一個美好的假期，Cyber 5 的總收入與去年持平。在感恩節週末，我們每 9.2 秒售出一張床墊。太多了，如果我們把它們首尾相連地堆起來，它會達到近 12 英里高。

Our success at the end of the year is a strong proof point that the 3 major principles behind our current strategy: one, driving cost efficiency; two, nailing the basics; and three, earning customer and supplier loyalty, are bearing fruit in the form of share recapture. To start, let's dive deeper on how we are driving cost efficiency and the latest developments there.

我們在年底的成功有力地證明了我們當前戰略背後的 3 大原則：一是提高成本效率；二、打好基礎；第三，贏得客戶和供應商的忠誠度，正在以股份回收的形式取得成果。首先，讓我們更深入地了解我們如何提高成本效率以及那裡的最新發展。

Our journey on the path to cost efficiency started last spring as we swiftly reacted to a changing macro environment and put a hiring freeze in place. It became clear that 2022 was diverging from our original set of expectations. And in August, we made a difficult decision to part ways with nearly 10% of our corporate employee population.

我們的成本效率之路始於去年春天，當時我們對不斷變化的宏觀環境迅速做出反應，並凍結了招聘。很明顯，2022 年偏離了我們最初的預期。 8 月，我們做出了一個艱難的決定，即與近 10% 的公司員工分道揚鑣。

As we then looked at our company priorities, team composition and the cost structure in aggregate, we ultimately move fast on a comprehensive plan covering $1.4 billion of cost actions across the entire business. Our execution on this set of initiatives led to the hard but necessary decision to eliminate 1,750 additional roles, including approximately 1,200 roles or 18% of our corporate employees across the organization last month.

然後，當我們審視公司的優先事項、團隊組成和總體成本結構時，我們最終迅速制定了一項涵蓋整個企業 14 億美元成本行動的綜合計劃。我們對這組舉措的執行導致了一個艱難但必要的決定，即裁減 1,750 個額外職位，其中包括上個月大約 1,200 個職位或我們整個組織 18% 的公司員工。

It's easy to get wrapped up in the financial implications of a reduction in headcount and detach from the human element. So before I discuss the savings, let me say this. Steve and I are immensely grateful to have such a talented and enthusiastic team that we work with every day. Across all of our stakeholders, our employees are the most important because without them, we cannot effectively serve any of our other partners. We want to take the opportunity once more to say, to all current and former Wayfair team members, thank you.

人們很容易陷入裁員和脫離人為因素的財務影響。所以在我討論儲蓄之前，讓我先說一下。史蒂夫和我非常感謝我們每天都與這樣一支才華橫溢、熱情洋溢的團隊共事。在我們所有的利益相關者中，我們的員工是最重要的，因為沒有他們，我們就無法有效地為我們的任何其他合作夥伴服務。我們想藉此機會再次向所有現任和前任 Wayfair 團隊成員表示感謝。

In total, our labor reductions have driven over $750 million of annualized cost savings from when we started this effort in the second quarter of 2022. On top of that, we've made considerable progress across operational cost savings initiatives which we anticipate will total more than $500 million of annualized savings once fully realized later this year. We discussed these initiatives a bit last November, where I highlighted returns monetization as one of the many areas in which we're looking to drive more efficiency.

總的來說，自 2022 年第二季度開始這項工作以來，我們的勞動力減少已經推動了超過 7.5 億美元的年度成本節約。最重要的是，我們在運營成本節約計劃方面取得了相當大的進展，我們預計總計將更多今年晚些時候完全實現後，每年可節省超過 5 億美元。去年 11 月，我們討論了這些舉措，我強調了回報貨幣化是我們希望提高效率的眾多領域之一。

While the savings all accrued to our cost of goods sold line, these initiatives stretch across all areas of the organization. For example, we've kicked off a promising supplier transfer program where in select cases, we choose to pass on customer calls to suppliers to utilize their strong domain expertise to diagnose and resolve customer issues directly. Suppliers can usually identify the ideal resolution. For example, sending a specific replacement part rather than needing a full replacement more quickly than one of our service representatives, resulting in a more efficient and less costly resolution for the customer and for Wayfair.

雖然節省的費用都計入了我們的商品銷售成本，但這些舉措遍及組織的所有領域。例如，我們已經啟動了一個有前途的供應商轉移計劃，在特定情況下，我們選擇將客戶電話轉給供應商，以利用他們強大的領域專業知識直接診斷和解決客戶問題。供應商通常可以確定理想的解決方案。例如，與我們的服務代表相比，發送特定的更換部件比需要更換部件更快，從而為客戶和 Wayfair 帶來更高效、成本更低的解決方案。

Yet another initiative is leveraging our enormous database of orders to understand the relative rate of damage and other incident risk for items based on delivery location and to factor that into the amount of exposure that items receive on our platform, lowering cost and also improving the customer experience.

另一項舉措是利用我們龐大的訂單數據庫，根據交貨地點了解物品的相對損壞率和其他事故風險，並將其計入物品在我們平台上收到的曝光量，從而降低成本並改善客戶經驗。

The final piece of our $1.4 billion of global cost actions comes from over $150 million of annualized savings against our previously planned spend. We put every element of our 2023 spending plans under the microscope in order to think more deliberately about the value we were modeling for each new dollar spent in what we expect will continue to be a challenging customer environment. The combined result is a significant reduction across many of our remaining large cost areas, most notably advertising, capital expenditures and various G&A expenses.

我們 14 億美元的全球成本行動的最後一部分來自我們先前計劃支出的超過 1.5 億美元的年度節省。我們將 2023 年支出計劃的每一個要素都放在顯微鏡下，以便更仔細地思考我們為在我們預計將繼續充滿挑戰的客戶環境中花費的每一新美元所建模的價值。綜合結果是我們剩餘的許多大成本領域的顯著減少，最顯著的是廣告、資本支出和各種 G&A 費用。

To offer an example in the advertising realm, we typically designate portions of our marketing spend that are used for testing and iterating across new channels. This is an important part of our process to find the new breakthroughs that allow us to then scale up these new ad channels at positive ROI in the ever-evolving digital advertising landscape. However, over time, some of these test budgets have grown to a level that was disproportionately large relative to the goal of being modest test budgets. This type of prudent approach applied to all cost lines and added up to large savings.

舉個廣告領域的例子，我們通常會指定部分營銷支出用於測試和迭代新渠道。這是我們尋找新突破的過程的重要組成部分，這些突破使我們能夠在不斷發展的數字廣告環境中以積極的投資回報率擴大這些新的廣告渠道。然而，隨著時間的推移，其中一些測試預算已經增長到與適度測試預算的目標相比過高的水平。這種審慎的方法適用於所有成本項目，加起來節省了大量資金。

One of the most important points that I want to ensure is not missed is that across everything we are doing to drive cost efficiency in the organization, we are not sacrificing our large growth opportunities, and we're doing this while we are also lowering retail prices. We remain as excited as ever for all of the major initiatives that we are working towards including Wayfair Professional, our specialty retail brands, our luxury platform, Perigold, catalog expansion efforts, physical retail stores and international markets and how a return to our core operating philosophy will enable us to unlock these new growth vectors going forward.

我想確保不要錯過的最重要的一點是，在我們為提高組織成本效率所做的一切工作中，我們並沒有犧牲我們巨大的增長機會，而且我們在這樣做的同時也在降低零售價格。我們一如既往地對我們正在努力實現的所有重大舉措感到興奮，包括 Wayfair Professional、我們的專業零售品牌、我們的奢侈品平台、Perigold、目錄擴展工作、實體零售店和國際市場，以及如何回歸我們的核心運營哲學將使我們能夠釋放這些新的增長動力。

As confident as we are in the steps we have taken to get back to our roots, it's important to remember that the macro environment is still very uncertain. Consumer sentiment remains under pressure given the uneven state of the economy, with multiple crosscurrents impacting the directions of interest rates, housing data and the mix of wallet share to services over goods. In spite of all the noise, we remain empowered by the elements of Wayfair that make us a unique and premier shopping destination for home and as a result, the strength of our market share trajectory.

儘管我們對追本溯源所採取的步驟充滿信心，但重要的是要記住，宏觀環境仍然非常不確定。鑑於經濟狀況不平衡，消費者信心仍然面臨壓力，多重交叉影響利率方向、住房數據以及錢包份額與服務而非商品的組合。儘管有各種噪音，但我們仍然受到 Wayfair 元素的支持，這些元素使我們成為獨特的首選家庭購物目的地，因此，我們的市場份額軌跡也很強勁。

Exiting 2022, we believe that we have now regained all of the share loss we experienced during the second half of 2021, driven by a myriad of factors related to our core recipe. The shareholder letter also explores this topic in more detail, but let me reiterate our belief that the key elements of availability, speed and price are responsible for our improving market share position. Coming back to our 3 key principles. I already touched on cost efficiency, and Kate will provide additional details on the numbers a little later. Now let's revisit the concept of nailing the basics.

離開 2022 年，我們相信，在與我們的核心配方相關的眾多因素的推動下，我們現在已經收復了 2021 年下半年經歷的所有份額損失。股東信也更詳細地探討了這個話題，但讓我重申我們的信念，即可用性、速度和價格等關鍵因素是我們提高市場份額的原因。回到我們的 3 個關鍵原則。我已經談到了成本效率，凱特稍後會提供更多關於這些數字的細節。現在讓我們重新審視固定基礎的概念。

Inventory availability is just one example of how our offering has improved, particularly year-over-year. Exiting 2022, availability hit the highest point since the beginning of the pandemic, setting the stage to propel the rest of the flywheel. While this was primarily due to the easing of supply chain congestion and a demand slowdown in the spring of 2022, we have also driven this improvement across multiple dimensions, including executing more efficient induction of goods directly from Asia and offering improved inventory visibility within CastleGate, so suppliers can more easily track their products.

庫存可用性只是我們的產品如何改進的一個例子，尤其是同比。 2022 年結束，可用性達到自大流行開始以來的最高點，為推動飛輪的其餘部分奠定了基礎。雖然這主要是由於 2022 年春季供應鏈擁堵的緩解和需求放緩，但我們也在多個方面推動了這一改進，包括直接從亞洲更有效地引入貨物，並在 CastleGate 內提供更好的庫存可見性，這樣供應商就可以更輕鬆地跟踪他們的產品。

To complement our in-stock position on goods, we've achieved stronger results on our speed metrics. In fact, over the course of 2022, we shaved a full day off our average delivery speed. Tighter integration with carriers has enabled this acceleration while also helping diminish fulfillment costs. Along with other factors, the combination of better availability and faster speed helps to drive a better experience for our consumers on an everyday basis.

為了補充我們在商品上的庫存狀況，我們在速度指標上取得了更好的結果。事實上，在 2022 年期間，我們的平均交付速度縮短了一整天。與承運商的更緊密整合使這種加速成為可能，同時也有助於降低履行成本。連同其他因素，更好的可用性和更快的速度相結合，有助於為我們的消費者帶來更好的日常體驗。

Perigold is another area to highlight [underlining] the basics as we continue to build the brand's assortment and customer reach, with approximately 30% of Perigold customers new to Wayfair. We're also proud of our satisfaction scores for the brand, best measured by Net Promoter Score now at all-time highs.

Perigold 是另一個要強調 [強調] 基礎知識的領域，因為我們繼續建立品牌的品種和客戶範圍，大約 30% 的 Perigold 客戶是 Wayfair 的新客戶。我們也為我們對該品牌的滿意度得分感到自豪，最好的衡量標準是淨推薦值，現在處於歷史最高水平。

Taking a higher-level view, the steady traction we have been building in this brand since its launch in late 2017 through today is a testament to our ability to effectively deploy capital back into our business. We test, iterate and develop our Wayfair family of brands in ways that expand our opportunities while also making sure that we drive a healthy ROI.

從更高的角度來看，自 2017 年底推出該品牌至今，我們一直對該品牌建立的穩定吸引力證明了我們能夠有效地將資本重新部署到我們的業務中。我們測試、迭代和開發我們的 Wayfair 系列品牌，以擴大我們的機會，同時確保我們推動健康的投資回報率。

In fact, part of Perigold's success has been a growing presence within our Wayfair Professional business, which leads to our third key principle, earning customer and supplier loyalty every day. The business-to-business opportunity is a meaningful piece of the overall TAM in our category, estimated to be nearly a couple of hundred billion dollars between North America and Western Europe. The differentiators of Wayfair's business to consumer platform give us unique advantages in our approach to the professional business and our ability to drive value for both customers and suppliers.

事實上，Perigold 成功的部分原因在於我們在 Wayfair Professional 業務中的影響力不斷擴大，這導致了我們的第三個關鍵原則，即每天贏得客戶和供應商的忠誠度。企業對企業的機會是我們類別中整體 TAM 的重要組成部分，據估計北美和西歐之間的價值接近兩千億美元。 Wayfair 的企業對消費者平台的差異化為我們提供了獨特的優勢，使我們能夠處理專業業務，並有能力為客戶和供應商創造價值。

Wayfair serves a wide array of customers on the professional side, ranging from interior designers to contractors, restaurants to offices to hospitality. We are focused on illustrating the full value proposition we can provide, supporting the very first steps of a project through our specialized designers as we partner a concept out of space, all the way to ensuring everything ordered arrives on site at the same time through our consolidated delivery. We're also utilizing our data science models to target leads more effectively with visible traction on prospect activations and other metrics.

Wayfair 在專業方面為廣泛的客戶提供服務，從室內設計師到承包商，從餐廳到辦公室再到酒店。我們專注於展示我們可以提供的全部價值主張，通過我們的專業設計師支持項目的第一步，因為我們合作一個空間概念，一直到確保訂購的所有東西通過我們的同時到達現場合併發貨。我們還利用我們的數據科學模型通過對潛在客戶激活和其他指標的明顯牽引力更有效地定位潛在客戶。

The result of these advances is a business that saw a strong year-over-year growth in 2022 as customers increasingly rely on Wayfair Professional for the rate combination of product and service. While a small base of shoppers, we saw the number of customers that spend more than $20,000 per year grow by 20% in 2022 as compared to 2021. Our success within Professional is a microcosm of our mission to drive customer and supplier loyalty with opportunities for further progress across the broad Wayfair ecosystem.

這些進步的結果是，隨著客戶越來越依賴 Wayfair Professional 來提供產品和服務的費率組合，該業務在 2022 年實現了強勁的同比增長。雖然購物者的基數很小，但我們發現與 2021 年相比，2022 年每年花費超過 20,000 美元的客戶數量增長了 20%。我們在 Professional 中的成功是我們使命的縮影，即通過機會提高客戶和供應商的忠誠度在廣泛的 Wayfair 生態系統中取得進一步進展。

I want to wrap up by returning to where we started. The difficulties we faced in 2022 catalyzed several meaningful changes for Wayfair, enabling us to enter this new year as a lean, execution-focused organization. 2023 will be a year of rigorous execution on the key priorities for the company where we intend to build on the recent momentum highlighted in our Cyber 5 and January press releases.

我想通過回到我們開始的地方來結束。我們在 2022 年面臨的困難催生了 Wayfair 的幾項有意義的變革，使我們能夠以精益、注重執行的組織的身份進入新的一年。 2023 年將是嚴格執行公司關鍵優先事項的一年，我們打算在 Cyber 5 和 1 月新聞稿中強調的近期勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

Although the short-term macroeconomic picture is unpredictable, we are optimistic in our ability to navigate the challenges based on a return to form in the core recipe and the flexibility of our business model compared to peers. And regardless of what happens on the top line, we are reaffirming our commitment to reaching adjusted EBITDA profitability soon.

儘管短期宏觀經濟形勢不可預測，但我們對基於核心配方的回歸和我們的商業模式與同行相比的靈活性來應對挑戰的能力持樂觀態度。無論頂線發生什麼，我們都重申我們對盡快實現調整後 EBITDA 盈利能力的承諾。

From there, our focus is on consistently generating and ultimately scaling positive free cash flow. Importantly, we consider these goals in the context of total shares outstanding, with an emphasis on maximizing profitability and minimizing dilution.

從那裡開始，我們的重點是持續產生並最終擴大正的自由現金流。重要的是，我們在流通股總數的背景下考慮這些目標，重點是最大化盈利能力和最小化稀釋。

Thank you, and I'll now hand it over to Kate for a review of our financials.

謝謝，現在我將把它交給凱特來審查我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Niraj, and good morning, everyone. Before we take a look at our fourth quarter results, I want to take a moment to echo something Niraj said. We are tremendously grateful that so many talented and driven individuals share our vision for creating the world's best place to shop for the home. And so to everyone on the team, I want to say thank you as well. Now let's dive into the fourth quarter results, after which, I'll walk through the cost savings measures that Niraj discussed earlier in more financial detail before wrapping up with guidance and closing remarks.

謝謝，Niraj，大家早上好。在我們查看第四季度業績之前，我想花點時間來回應 Niraj 所說的話。我們非常感謝這麼多才華橫溢、積極進取的人與我們分享創建世界上最好的家居購物場所的願景。因此，對於團隊中的每個人，我也想說聲謝謝。現在讓我們深入探討第四季度的業績，之後，我將詳細介紹 Niraj 早些時候討論的成本節約措施，然後再給出指導和結束語。

Net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $3.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year, but up 9% sequentially from the third quarter. This was slightly better than we had anticipated when we spoke last November, and earlier, Niraj highlighted the strength in order volume we saw, with 11 million orders, up more than 25% from Q3 more than offsetting a decline in AOV of 13% from last quarter.

2022 年第四季度的淨收入為 31 億美元，同比下降 5%，但比第三季度環比增長 9%。這比我們去年 11 月談話時的預期略好，早些時候，Niraj 強調了我們看到的訂單量強勁，訂單量為 1100 萬，比第三季度增長超過 25%，抵消了第三季度 AOV 下降 13%上個季度。

We're very excited to see inflationary pressures reverting and order volume reacting positively as expected. Customers continue to show strong response to promotions and we had a robust holiday calendar, starting with our second Way Day in October going all the way through the new year.

我們很高興看到通脹壓力恢復，訂單量如預期般做出積極反應。客戶繼續對促銷活動表現出強烈的反應，我們有一個強大的假期日曆，從 10 月的第二個 Way Day 開始一直持續到新的一年。

The fourth quarter saw the trends between our U.S. and international segments stay largely consistent with what we observed during Q3, which was an improvement in comparison to the first half of the year. Net revenue in the U.S. outperformed the aggregate and was only down 2% compared to Q4 of 2021, while international was down 20% against last year as the macro pressure continues to weigh more heavily outside of the United States.

第四季度我們的美國和國際市場之間的趨勢與我們在第三季度觀察到的基本一致，與上半年相比有所改善。美國的淨收入表現好於總體，與 2021 年第四季度相比僅下降 2%，而國際收入比去年下降 20%，因為宏觀壓力繼續在美國以外的地區施加更大的壓力。

I'll now move further down the P&L. As I do, please note that the remaining financials include depreciation and amortization, but exclude equity-based compensation, related taxes and other adjustments. I will use the same basis when discussing our outlook as well.

我現在將進一步向下移動損益表。和我一樣，請注意其餘財務包括折舊和攤銷，但不包括基於股權的薪酬、相關稅費和其他調整。在討論我們的前景時，我也會使用相同的基礎。

We saw another strong quarter on the gross profit line with gross margins of 28.9%, coming in at the high end of our guided range. The drivers here remain largely unchanged from last quarter, with more favorability in the transportation environment and strong levels of CastleGate penetration working to our advantage. In fact, we ended 2022 with considerably more suppliers leveraging CastleGate than we had at the end of 2021. As we saw for several quarters this year, our strength on the gross margin line persisted even in the presence of a considerably more promotional environment as suppliers continue to work through inventory stockpiles.

我們在毛利潤線上看到了另一個強勁的季度，毛利率為 28.9%，處於我們指導範圍的高端。這裡的驅動因素與上一季度基本保持不變，交通環境更加有利，CastleGate 滲透率高，這對我們有利。事實上，到 2022 年底，我們利用 CastleGate 的供應商比 2021 年底要多得多。正如我們今年幾個季度所看到的那樣，即使在作為供應商的促銷環境明顯增加的情況下，我們在毛利率線上的優勢依然存在繼續通過庫存工作。

Customer service and merchant fees were 5% of net revenue. Advertising came in at 13.1% of net revenue. As we've discussed at length in prior calls, the advertising margin continues to be pressured by lower free and direct traffic. While this will recover as a function of the macro, we remain steadfast behind the efficiency targets that drive every dollar that we spend here.

客戶服務和商家費用占淨收入的 5%。廣告收入占淨收入的 13.1%。正如我們在之前的電話中詳細討論過的那樣，廣告利潤率繼續受到免費和直接流量減少的壓力。雖然這將隨著宏觀經濟的變化而恢復，但我們仍然堅定地支持推動我們在這里花費的每一美元的效率目標。

Finally, our selling, operations, technology, general and administrative expenses totaled $508 million. You are now seeing the full impact of the cost efficiency action we took in the second half of 2022 manifest. And as you know well, there is considerably more that we've done since.

最後，我們的銷售、運營、技術、一般和管理費用總計 5.08 億美元。您現在可以看到我們在 2022 年下半年採取的成本效益行動的全部影響。如您所知，自那以後我們所做的工作要多得多。

All combined, our Q4 adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $71 million or negative 2.3% of net revenue. You've heard us talk at length about the path to profitability as we look to get back to positive adjusted EBITDA and ultimately, free cash flow. And so it's worth calling out that we showed positive adjusted EBITDA in our U.S. segment of $11 million for the fourth quarter.

總而言之，我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 7100 萬美元，占淨收入的負 2.3%。您已經聽到我們詳細討論了盈利之路，因為我們希望恢復正的調整後 EBITDA 並最終實現自由現金流。因此，值得一提的是，我們在第四季度的美國分部顯示出 1100 萬美元的正調整 EBITDA。

We ended the year with $1.3 billion of cash and highly liquid investments on our balance sheet and $1.8 billion of total liquidity, including our revolving credit facility. Net cash from operations was a positive $98 million, while capital expenditures were $117 million, resulting in free cash flow during the quarter of negative $19 million. During our third quarter call, we had discussed how the working capital dynamics of our business would lead to a cash inflow during the quarter with sequential revenue growth, and we saw that play out in our net working capital line items during Q4.

到年底，我們的資產負債表上有 13 億美元的現金和高流動性投資，以及 18 億美元的總流動資金，包括我們的循環信貸額度。來自運營的淨現金為正 9800 萬美元，而資本支出為 1.17 億美元，導致本季度的自由現金流為負 1900 萬美元。在我們第三季度的電話會議中，我們討論了我們業務的營運資金動態將如何導致本季度的現金流入以及連續的收入增長，我們在第四季度的淨營運資金項目中看到了這一點。

Now before I turn to guidance, I want to spend a moment walking through some of the cost savings initiatives that we announced last month and what you can expect from a financial perspective. Starting with the labor savings. We have now taken action to drive approximately $750 million of annualized total savings compared to our baseline period of Q2 last year. $450 million of this came as a function of the workforce reduction in January. While the majority of those cost benefits will occur in Q1 of 2023, you'll see this fully manifest on the P&L by the second quarter of 2023.

現在，在我轉向指導之前，我想花點時間介紹一下我們上個月宣布的一些成本節約計劃，以及您從財務角度可以期待的內容。從節省勞動力開始。與我們去年第二季度的基準期相比，我們現在已經採取行動，推動年度總節省約 7.5 億美元。其中 4.5 億美元來自 1 月份的裁員。雖然這些成本收益中的大部分將出現在 2023 年第一季度，但到 2023 年第二季度，您將在損益表中看到這一點。

Across that annualized $450 million bucket, about $290 million is related to cash compensation that impacts the customer service line and our SOTG&A line compared to where we ended 2022. The remainder are reductions to steady-state equity-based compensation.

在這個每年 4.5 億美元的桶中，與 2022 年底相比，影響客戶服務線和我們的 SOTG&A 線的現金補償約有 2.9 億美元。其餘部分是穩態股權補償的減少。

Turning to the operational cost efforts. As we've mentioned several times, these savings will ultimately come in the form of reductions to our cost of goods sold line. Last quarter, we talked about $200 million of annualized opportunity here, but previewed that there were several hundred million more in total savings that we are working toward on top of that.

轉向運營成本方面的努力。正如我們多次提到的，這些節省最終將以降低我們的商品銷售成本的形式出現。上個季度，我們在這裡談到了 2 億美元的年化機會，但預示著我們正在努力實現的總節省數億美元。

As part of the announcement in January, you saw that we have now grown that figure to $500 million of annualized savings here, all as part of the initiatives that Niraj touched on earlier. While these savings will build over the course of 2023, we intend to reinvest a healthy portion back into the customer experience in the form of merchandising investments. The exact mix will be a function of the macro environment that we see play out over the course of the year.

作為 1 月份公告的一部分，您看到我們現在已經將這一數字增加到每年 5 億美元的節省，所有這些都是 Niraj 早些時候提到的舉措的一部分。雖然這些節省將在 2023 年期間積累，但我們打算以商品化投資的形式將健康的一部分重新投資回客戶體驗。確切的組合將取決於我們在一年中看到的宏觀環境。

The end result of all the actions we've taken so far is to pull up our timetable in reaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven as the first step on the path towards self-funded state. You can see this path clearly laid out as part of a new slide in our refreshed investor presentation.

到目前為止，我們採取的所有行動的最終結果是加快實現調整後 EBITDA 盈虧平衡的時間表，這是邁向自籌資金狀態的第一步。您可以在我們更新的投資者演示文稿中清楚地看到這條路徑作為新幻燈片的一部分。

As we started to map out this journey last August, we said that we'd be profitable by Q4 of 2023 at the latest. With the actions we've taken this time January, we feel confident we'll reach this goal earlier than originally planned. And while we believe we have taken the necessary steps to deliver on this commitment, we are prepared to take additional actions depending on the state of the macro environment.

當我們去年 8 月開始規劃這一旅程時，我們表示最遲將在 2023 年第四季度實現盈利。通過我們在 1 月這個時候採取的行動，我們相信我們將比原計劃更早地實現這一目標。雖然我們相信我們已經採取了必要的步驟來兌現這一承諾，但我們準備根據宏觀環境的狀況採取額外的行動。

Now let's turn to guidance for the first quarter. Quarter-to-date gross revenue has been trending down about 10% year-over-year. However, we are seeing a return to traditional seasonality in the core business, and we expect net revenue to end the quarter down in the high single digits. On gross margins, we continue to guide you to the 28% to 29% range that we used for Q4. We expect customer service and merchant fees to be around 5% of net revenue and advertising to be 12% to 13% for the first quarter. This guidance mirrors what we said in Q4 as we largely see the same drivers impacting these lines right now.

現在讓我們轉向第一季度的指導。本季度至今的總收入同比下降約 10%。然而，我們看到核心業務正在回歸傳統的季節性，我們預計本季度末的淨收入將以高個位數下降。在毛利率方面，我們繼續指導您使用我們在第四季度使用的 28% 至 29% 的範圍。我們預計第一季度客戶服務和商家費用將占淨收入的 5% 左右，廣告費用將佔 12% 至 13%。該指南反映了我們在第四季度所說的內容，因為我們現在在很大程度上看到影響這些線路的相同驅動因素。

We forecast SOTG&A or OpEx, excluding equity-based compensation, related taxes and restructuring charges, to come in between $475 million and $485 million for the first quarter. You're seeing the majority of the labor cost savings flow during Q1 and the entire value will manifest in the Q2 SOTG&A figure.

我們預測第一季度 SOTG&A 或運營支出（不包括基於股權的薪酬、相關稅費和重組費用）將在 4.75 億美元至 4.85 億美元之間。您會在第一季度看到大部分勞動力成本節約流程，整個價值將體現在第二季度的 SOTG&A 數據中。

If you follow through the guidance I've just outlined, that should translate to adjusted EBITDA margins in the negative low single digits for the first quarter. While we don't guide on free cash flow, I thought it would be helpful to offer a reminder around the working capital dynamics for our business.

如果你遵循我剛剛概述的指導，那應該轉化為第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率處於負低個位數。雖然我們不指導自由現金流，但我認為就我們業務的營運資金動態提供提醒會有所幫助。

Our negative cash conversion cycle means that in quarters where revenue grows sequentially, working capital proved to be a source of cash and vice versa where revenue declines from the period prior. As with normal seasonality, this Q1 is poised to be down sequentially from Q4, so we would expect working capital to be an outflow this period. As many of you know, the seasonality of our business typically shows sequential growth starting in Q2, so we would expect working capital to become a source of cash as we get further into the year.

我們的負現金轉換週期意味著在收入連續增長的季度中，營運資金被證明是現金的來源，反之亦然，收入比上一時期下降。與正常的季節性一樣，第一季度將從第四季度開始連續下降，因此我們預計營運資金在此期間將流出。正如你們許多人所知，我們業務的季節性通常顯示出從第二季度開始的連續增長，因此我們預計隨著時間的推移，營運資金將成為現金來源。

Now let me touch on a few housekeeping items for Q1. Please assume the following: equity-based compensation related taxes of $145 million to $155 million; depreciation and amortization of approximately $102 million to $107 million; net interest expense of approximately $4 million; weighted average shares outstanding equal to approximately $111 million; and CapEx in a $90 million to $100 million range.

現在讓我談談第一季度的一些內務管理項目。請假設以下情況：與股權補償相關的稅收為 1.45 億美元至 1.55 億美元；折舊和攤銷約為 1.02 億美元至 1.07 億美元；淨利息支出約為 400 萬美元；加權平均流通股數約為 1.11 億美元；資本支出在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間。

As I wrap up, I wanted to take a moment to highlight something Niraj and Steve included in their shareholder letter. Investors often ask us about our views on return on investment, especially in an environment where capital is much less readily available than it was just a few years ago. To sum up our response, a core part of our organizational DNA is taking a deliberate considered approach to every dollar we spend across the company. And you see it as manifest in the improvement to unit economics that we've seen over the past several years.

在結束時，我想花點時間強調 Niraj 和 Steve 在他們的股東信中包含的一些內容。投資者經常詢問我們對投資回報的看法，尤其是在資本比幾年前更難獲得的環境中。總結我們的回應，我們組織 DNA 的核心部分是對我們在公司內花費的每一美元都採取深思熟慮的方法。你認為它體現在我們過去幾年看到的單位經濟效益的改善上。

We have confidence in our ability to reach breakeven adjusted EBITDA margins to aggressively ramp to a mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA range, which we view as a philosophical floor and then continue to our target beyond 10% because of this very DNA and the team operating behind it. Above all, we are measuring our success by growing free cash flow while at the same time, limiting and ultimately offsetting dilution.

我們有信心實現盈虧平衡調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，從而積極提升至調整後 EBITDA 中個位數範圍，我們將其視為一個哲學底線，然後繼續實現超過 10% 的目標，因為正是這種 DNA 和團隊在它後面操作。最重要的是，我們通過增加自由現金流來衡量我們的成功，同時限制並最終抵消稀釋。

Thank you. And now Niraj, Steve and I will take your questions.

謝謝。現在 Niraj、Steve 和我將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Christopher Horvers from JPM.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 JPM 的克里斯托弗霍弗斯。

So my first question is on the top line. So you're in an advantaged situation right now with better in-stocks than you had a year ago as the supply chain loosened up. Can you talk about when you start to anniversary that? And then bigger picture, guide the year on sales, but how should -- how are you looking at it? Are you looking at historical seasonality and thinking about how you project on the first quarter?

所以我的第一個問題是最重要的。因此，由於供應鏈鬆動，您現在處於有利地位，庫存比一年前更好。你能談談你什麼時候開始過週年紀念日嗎？然後是更大的圖景，指導銷售年度，但應該如何——你如何看待它？您是否正在查看歷史季節性並考慮您如何預測第一季度？

Yes. Chris, thanks for the question. This is Niraj. So a couple of thoughts on that. So first, we are seeing the traditional seasonal cadence playing out so far, not just the start of this year, but sort of the shape of Q4 into Q1. And so in that sense, we do feel like there is a trend there.

是的。克里斯，謝謝你的提問。這是尼拉吉。所以有一些想法。因此，首先，我們看到到目前為止傳統的季節性節奏正在發揮作用，不僅僅是今年年初，而是從第四季度到第一季度的某種形式。所以從這個意義上說，我們確實覺得那裡有一種趨勢。

But to take a step back, to answer your question, where you started about the top line relative to availability getting better, remember the time line on that. So availability got poor starting in '21 based on the production shutdowns and the supply chain congestion, et cetera. It's gotten better starting in the spring of '22. So in spring '22, availability gets good, and in fact, supply chain eases up, so some suppliers have ample availability.

但是退後一步，回答你的問題，你從哪裡開始與可用性相關的頂線變得更好，記住時間線。因此，由於生產停工和供應鏈擁堵等原因，從 21 世紀開始可用性就很差。從 22 年春天開始，情況變得更好了。所以在 22 年春季，可用性變得很好，事實上，供應鏈得到了緩解，所以一些供應商有充足的可用性。

Then in the summer, basically the speed of delivery gets better and that's because suppliers are now forward positioning goods to maximize sales. And then by the time you get to the fall, our retail prices get good again because the inflation that we particularly got hit with, because we don't buy inventory in advance, has sort of abated been pulled back out.

然後在夏天，基本上交貨速度會變快，這是因為供應商現在將貨物提前定位以最大化銷售。然後到秋天的時候，我們的零售價格再次上漲，因為我們特別受到打擊的通貨膨脹，因為我們不提前購買庫存，已經有所減弱。

So then when you look at this year, when you think about the comps, if you're doing it year-over-year, right now, we're in a period where last year, we had elevated demand -- the first part of the year had elevated demand, this was the time of Omicron last year, et cetera.

那麼當你看今年，當你考慮補償時，如果你每年都這樣做，那麼現在，我們正處於去年需求增加的時期——第一部分今年的需求增加，這是 Omicron 去年的時間，等等。

And so we're comping against that. And now we're kind of the first half of last year kind of now through the spring, you see that elevated demand come out of the market, then you see it sort of be normal in the second half. So the comps in the first half sort of have us comping off in an increasingly less high demand environment, but still a high demand environment. Then you get a normal sort of demand environment in the second half.

因此，我們正在與之抗爭。現在我們有點像去年上半年到春天，你看到市場需求增加，然後你會看到下半年它有點正常。因此，上半年的比賽讓我們在一個越來越不那麼高的需求環境中進行比賽，但仍然是一個高需求環境。然後你會在下半年得到一個正常的需求環境。

The way we look at it is we sort of don't particularly start by looking at it year-over-year. We look at it seasonally, and that's why kind of what's the shape of Q4 into Q2, what's shape of December into January, January into February. The outdoor season is something that is meaningful for us, that starts shortly. And what we're seeing is we're seeing demand holding up quite nicely compared to that seasonal pattern.

我們看待它的方式是，我們並不是特別從年復一年地看它開始。我們季節性地看待它，這就是為什麼第四季度到第二季度的形狀是什麼，12 月到 1 月，1 月到 2 月的形狀是什麼。戶外季節對我們來說是有意義的，它很快就會開始。我們看到的是，與季節性模式相比，我們看到需求保持得相當好。

And so this is what we thought and what we saw last year. However, last year then, as I mentioned, in the spring, demand macro weakened that we didn't foresee. I don't think anyone foresaw. However, in our case, we were able to use that to get the recipe back intact, which is why we started taking share starting in the fourth quarter.

這就是我們去年的想法和看到的。然而，去年春季，正如我所提到的，需求宏觀疲軟是我們沒有預見到的。我認為沒有人預見到。然而，在我們的案例中，我們能夠使用它來完整恢復配方，這就是我們從第四季度開始分享的原因。

Ever since then, we're seeing a nice tight kind of seasonal pattern holding. And so there's a wide range of outcomes that, that seasonal pattern holds. We're going to -- we're pretty excited about that, and that is kind of what we're seeing right now. But on the profitability point, we feel like we can achieve the profitability in a range of outcomes, so we're pretty happy about that as well.

從那時起，我們就看到了一種很好的緊縮季節性模式。因此，這種季節性模式會產生廣泛的結果。我們將 - 我們對此感到非常興奮，這就是我們現在所看到的。但在盈利點上，我們覺得我們可以在一系列結果中實現盈利，所以我們也對此感到非常高興。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then just one follow-up on the SOTG&A side. You talked about $475 million to $485 million, but you'll get the full run rate in the second quarter. Can you -- how much is left? And sort of how do you think about the run rate beyond the first quarter?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是 SOTG&A 方面的後續行動。你談到了 4.75 億美元到 4.85 億美元，但你將在第二季度獲得全額運行率。你能——還剩多少？您如何看待第一季度之後的運行率？

Yes. Let me -- Kate, you want to field that?

是的。讓我 - 凱特，你想要現場嗎？

Yes. So I think it's important to remember that, that savings that we're talking about seeing on the SOTG&A line, we also expect to see some of that flow through the customer service and merchant fee lines. We took headcount out of both of those cost buckets. And you should see the majority of that actually flow through in Q1. As a reminder, Jan 20 was the date of our risk. So think about a little more than 2/3 of that, 70% of that -- the remainder of that quarter or this quarter didn't have the cost of those folks in it. So you'll see the entirety in Q2, but the majority of it will already be hitting you in -- hitting in Q1 and is in that guide.

是的。所以我認為重要的是要記住，我們正在談論的在 SOTG&A 線上看到的節省，我們也希望看到其中的一些通過客戶服務和商家費用線流動。我們從這兩個成本桶中剔除了員工人數。你應該會看到其中大部分實際上是在第一季度流過的。提醒一下，1 月 20 日是我們面臨風險的日子。所以想想其中的 2/3 多一點，其中的 70%——那個季度或本季度的剩餘部分沒有這些人的成本。所以你會在第二季度看到全部內容，但其中大部分已經在打擊你 - 在第一季度打擊並且在該指南中。

The other thing I would note is that when you look at SOTG&A, about half of that is related to compensation costs, what we're talking about here. The remainder are things like software costs and T&E. And there are some other puts and takes there that you could see in the other cost buckets on that line item as you look at Q1 and Q2.

我要注意的另一件事是，當您查看 SOTG&A 時，其中大約一半與補償成本有關，這就是我們在這裡談論的內容。其餘的是軟件成本和 T&E。當您查看 Q1 和 Q2 時，您可以在該訂單項的其他成本桶中看到其他一些投入和投入。

Our next question comes from Curtis Nagle from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Curtis Nagle。

Great. Just wanted to quickly focus on COGS line. So that will take just a little bit longer to flow through because it's operational stuff. Just, one, I just wanted to make sure I heard this correctly, that the $500 million gross cuts will be realized by the end of the year? And I guess, number two, could you give a little more detail in terms of the extent of the reinvestment? And let's just say things from a macro perspective, kind of stay where they are, would that equate to something like 50% reinvestment? Or what's the framework there?

偉大的。只是想快速關注 COGS 線。因此，這將需要更長的時間才能完成，因為它是操作性的東西。只是，第一，我只是想確保我沒有聽錯，即 5 億美元的總削減將在今年年底實現？我想，第二，你能否就再投資的範圍提供更多細節？讓我們從宏觀角度來說，保持現狀，這相當於 50% 的再投資嗎？或者那裡的框架是什麼？

Sure. Let me start -- thanks for the question. Let me start with some thoughts and then let me let Kate answer and share some more thoughts as well.

當然。讓我開始——謝謝你的提問。讓我先談談一些想法，然後讓凱特回答並分享更多想法。

I think the way to think about it is there's a lot of operational cost savings that we've identified that are very tangible and they're projects that are underway and they generally are taking out waste that basically does not impede the experience of suppliers or customers. And so that's the big benefit. And then basically, to your point, if you pass it through manifest as lower retail prices, and if you keep it, it manifests profit. And the quantum, as we've said, over $500 million is the quantum we've sized. It's meaningful, and so we're very excited about that.

我認為考慮它的方式是我們已經確定了很多非常有形的運營成本節省，並且它們是正在進行的項目並且它們通常正在消除基本上不會妨礙供應商體驗的浪費或顧客。這就是最大的好處。然後基本上，就你的觀點而言，如果你通過清單以較低的零售價傳遞它，如果你保留它，它就會體現利潤。正如我們所說，超過 5 億美元的數量是我們確定的數量。這是有意義的，所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

We've not made a predetermined decision on how the split will be. And in fact, that is one of the many levers we use to manage the business. And so we're executing on that. The movement of unearthing those costs is moving very well. But in terms of how exactly we let it play through, there's not an answer. I think that's fixed.

我們還沒有就如何拆分做出預先決定。事實上，這是我們用來管理業務的眾多槓桿之一。所以我們正在執行。挖掘這些成本的運動進展順利。但就我們究竟如何讓它發揮作用而言，沒有答案。我認為這是固定的。

But Kate, I don't know if there's any more you want to share?

但是凱特，我不知道你是否還有什麼想分享的？

I think that's fair. And I guess I would add a few points. So we've seen gross margin improve nicely throughout the course of the past year. We do expect to continue to build on some of those gains. But we want to hold this back as an operating lever for us. And I think it gives us actually a fair amount of dexterity in this environment, which is an advantage.

我認為這很公平。我想我會補充幾點。因此，在過去一年中，我們看到毛利率有了很好的提高。我們確實希望繼續在其中一些成果的基礎上再接再厲。但我們想阻止它作為我們的操作槓桿。我認為它實際上給了我們在這種環境中相當多的靈活性，這是一個優勢。

And so we will make this decision sort of iteratively throughout the year. And as we see an opportunity to invest in the customer experience, we can use it that way. As we see an opportunity to flow through, we can use it that way. But irrespective of that, you've seen nice improvement in gross margin in 2022 and should expect to see some of that in 2023 as well.

因此，我們將在全年反复做出這個決定。當我們看到投資於客戶體驗的機會時，我們可以那樣使用它。當我們看到一個流動的機會時，我們可以那樣使用它。但無論如何，您已經看到 2022 年毛利率有了很好的改善，並且應該期望在 2023 年也能看到其中的一些。

Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

I wanted to dive into the macro a little bit more. Just maybe if we could expand a little bit more on the U.S. versus Europe trends. I understood that Europe has more challenges right now. But how can we read through some of the positive factors we're seeing in the U.S.? And then how could we translate that forward? We've talked about promotional activity over the holidays. Is that -- as we're going through in the early part of this year, is that continuing to be a big factor? And how are we thinking about that?

我想更深入地研究宏。也許我們可以進一步擴展美國與歐洲的趨勢。我知道歐洲現在面臨更多挑戰。但是，我們如何解讀我們在美國看到的一些積極因素呢？然後我們如何將其向前翻譯？我們已經討論過假期的促銷活動。這是 - 正如我們在今年年初經歷的那樣，這是否繼續成為一個重要因素？我們是如何考慮的？

Sure. Let me field that and I don't know if Kate or Steve want to chime in.

當然。讓我回答一下，我不知道凱特或史蒂夫是否想插話。

But first thought I had, on the macro, the international segment and the way we report is everything outside the United States. So that also includes Canada. But I would say Canada is in the same situation as the U.K. and Germany, where the macro is significantly more difficult and challenged than in the United States.

但首先我想到，在宏觀上，國際部分和我們報導的方式是美國以外的一切。所以這也包括加拿大。但我要說的是，加拿大的處境與英國和德國相同，宏觀經濟比美國困難得多，挑戰也大得多。

And in addition to that, the comp, so the elevated demand was heightened in those countries in the first half of last year relative to how the U.S. was heightened. So they're all heightened, but to different degrees. So there's a normalization period that you need to go through before you get to normalized comps in the back half, where the shape of the curve looks a little different in those different countries for the first half of the year. So I think it's important to kind of highlight that.

除此之外，相對於美國的增長，去年上半年這些國家的需求增加了。所以它們都被提高了，但程度不同。因此，在下半年進入標準化 comps 之前，你需要經歷一個標準化期，上半年這些不同國家的曲線形狀看起來略有不同。所以我認為強調這一點很重要。

The next thing is on the inflation, the inflation that came into goods, some was raw materials, some was labor, a lot of it was ocean freight. And then what's happened is it's pretty clear that ocean freight has substantially reversed. So when folks think about replenishment costs, it's significantly lower for suppliers than the cost basis that they brought goods in at last year.

接下來是通貨膨脹，商品的通貨膨脹，有些是原材料，有些是勞動力，很多是海運。然後很明顯，海運已經大幅逆轉。因此，當人們考慮補貨成本時，供應商的補貨成本明顯低於他們去年進貨的成本基礎。

What's happened is in the U.S., folks look at replenishment cost, it's substantially lower. They're dropping wholesales to basically work towards that number. So in fact, the shape over time is you're going to see suppliers in the U.S. keep dropping prices until they get to that replenishment cost with the margin they want. So the U.S. trajectory for prices is not discounting where it needs to go up at some point, is actually following the shape of the curve down, and there's still down to go.

在美國發生的事情，人們看看補貨成本，它大大降低了。他們正在放棄批發，以基本上朝著這個數字努力。所以事實上，隨著時間的推移，你會看到美國的供應商不斷降價，直到他們的補貨成本達到他們想要的利潤率。因此，美國的價格軌跡並沒有在某個時候需要上漲的地方打折，實際上是沿著曲線的形狀向下，而且還有下跌空間。

In Canada, the U.K. and Germany, the storyline is a little different where the cost of energy and then the FX cost, the foreign exchange costs, because goods coming out of Asia are denominated in the U.S. dollar, those things have eroded a lot of the ocean freight savings. So on imported goods, there's less savings on replenishment costs than there is in the U.S. And so there, you're seeing the curve on costing coming down also being slower. So that combination of those dynamics just make the macro in those countries a little slower to play out than it is in the U.S.

在加拿大、英國和德國，情況略有不同，能源成本，然後是外匯成本，外匯成本，因為來自亞洲的商品以美元計價，這些東西侵蝕了很多節省海運費。因此，在進口商品方面，補貨成本的節省比美國少。因此，你會看到成本下降的曲線也變慢了。因此，這些動態的結合只會使這些國家的宏觀經濟發揮作用比美國慢一些。

Then on your point about promotional environment, I would encourage you to think about the promotional environment as being more a marketing phenomenon than a margin phenomenon. And you see that in our gross margin. And so what's happened is suppliers have had an excessive amount of goods, they then know that their replenishment cost is lower, and they know that they can bring in goods at a much lower price, and they know that getting there puts them in a position to be a winner and take share because they can be much more aggressive on price.

那麼關於促銷環境的觀點，我鼓勵您將促銷環境更多地視為一種營銷現象，而不是一種利潤現象。你在我們的毛利率中看到了這一點。所以發生的事情是供應商有過多的貨物，然後他們知道他們的補貨成本較低，他們知道他們可以以低得多的價格進貨，他們知道到達那裡會使他們處於有利地位成為贏家並獲得份額，因為他們可以在價格上更具侵略性。

So if they hold pricing based on their cost basis, they would end up being the last person to get there, and they don't want to do that relative to their peers. So you're seeing them price to some degree relative to the replenishment cost. And so that's why costs keep coming down. It's also why it's already come down some.

因此，如果他們根據成本基礎定價，他們最終將成為最後一個到達那裡的人，而且他們不想相對於同行這樣做。所以你看到它們的價格在某種程度上與補貨成本有關。這就是成本不斷下降的原因。這也是為什麼它已經下降了一些。

Well, then what we're doing from a marketing phenomenon is we're saying that, hey, customers, they're just seeing negative headlines. Rates need to keep going up. Housing prices have fallen the most in a long time. There's a war that doesn't seem like it will end. You can't find positive headlines very easily nowadays. And so the phenomena customers, they tend to then kind of sit on their hands, and the layoffs that are happening in certain sectors certainly don't help that.

好吧，那麼我們從營銷現像中所做的就是說，嘿，客戶，他們只是看到負面新聞。利率需要繼續上漲。房價在很長一段時間內跌幅最大。一場戰爭似乎不會結束。現在你很難找到積極的頭條新聞。因此，現象客戶，他們往往會袖手旁觀，而某些行業正在發生的裁員肯定無濟於事。

Well, what then happens is, if you tell them, hey, there's the sale event, it's got great value, turns out the top 3 quintiles of customers actually have an incredible amount of savings. They still have significant excess savings from pre-COVID. That message caused them to be curious. They come check out what's available. They see items that they're getting excited by. They see the pricing being attractive. Then what happens is they find something that like and they buy it because they have the money the sale event gives them both curiosity to come check it out and then the permission to buy it because the value won't last.

好吧，接下來發生的事情是，如果你告訴他們，嘿，有促銷活動，它有很大的價值，結果前 3 個五分之一的客戶實際上節省了令人難以置信的金額。他們在 COVID 之前仍然有大量的超額儲蓄。那條消息引起了他們的好奇。他們來看看有什麼可用的。他們看到令他們興奮的項目。他們認為定價很有吸引力。然後發生的事情是他們找到了喜歡的東西併購買了它，因為他們有錢銷售活動讓他們既有好奇心來檢查它，又允許購買它，因為它的價值不會持續。

And so I think that environment will last for a period of time based on effectively how the headlines play out. It's a period of time based on the psyche out there. And we saw this after the financial crisis. And so in 2019, 2010, there was a lot of this. And by the time you got into 2011, it really had abated, but it lasted a while. And we kind of know how to measure for that because we don't want to keep that messaging once you get back to a normal environment. You don't want to create fatigue. And on the other hand, you want to lean into what the customers want to hear.

因此，我認為根據頭條新聞的有效傳播方式，這種環境將持續一段時間。這是一段基於心理的時期。我們在金融危機之後看到了這一點。所以在 2019 年、2010 年，有很多這樣的事情。當你進入 2011 年時，它確實已經減弱，但持續了一段時間。我們知道如何衡量這一點，因為一旦您回到正常環境，我們不想保留該消息。你不想製造疲勞。另一方面，您想了解客戶想听的內容。

And so we're seeing that. And so that's playing out very well. We're seeing that in the customer reaction and the demand. And particularly, if you look at the order count, which is basically a proxy for the number of customers engaged and buying from us, you see it right there.

所以我們看到了。所以效果很好。我們在客戶的反應和需求中看到了這一點。特別是，如果您查看訂單數量，它基本上代表了參與和向我們購買的客戶數量，您就會看到它。

And a quick follow-up. Kate, we're pulling a lot of costs out of the system here. And I just want to maybe dig into your comments that you're prepared to take additional actions like you said, depending on the environment, but how you think about your where cost profile is now versus where it might be? And where else there's room left to pull some levers if you do end up deciding to do that?

並進行快速跟進。凱特，我們正在從這裡的系統中削減大量成本。我只是想深入了解您的意見，即您準備根據環境採取您所說的其他行動，但您如何看待您現在的成本概況與可能的成本概況？如果您最終決定這樣做，還有什麼地方可以發揮作用？

Yes. So we feel very good about our current cost cutting. We've taken out about $1.4 billion of costs out of the business, actually over $1.4 billion. And as we've done that, we've looked across every line item of the P&L. And so that's from our gross margin line all the way down to our SOTG&A line. What we've tried to do, and I think we've been really thoughtful about are removing places where we were inefficient. You heard Niraj speak about this in his remarks and in some of the earlier questions. We've taken out management layers. We've taken out places where teams are focused on lower order priorities. We have not impacted any of our growth vectors, and I think that's very important to underscore.

是的。因此，我們對當前的成本削減感到非常滿意。我們已經從業務中扣除了大約 14 億美元的成本，實際上超過 14 億美元。當我們這樣做時，我們查看了損益表的每個項目。所以這是從我們的毛利率一直到我們的 SOTG&A 線。我們試圖做的，而且我認為我們已經非常深思熟慮的是移除我們效率低下的地方。你聽 Niraj 在他的發言和之前的一些問題中談到了這一點。我們去掉了管理層。我們去掉了團隊專注於低階優先級的地方。我們沒有影響我們的任何增長載體，我認為強調這一點非常重要。

In an environment where you saw a need to further cut, I think that will come in the form of sequencing things. Right now, our work has been all around improving efficiency, and we're excited about the gains that we think we'll get from that efficiency improvement.

在您認為需要進一步削減的環境中，我認為這將以排序的形式出現。目前，我們的工作一直圍繞著提高效率展開，我們對我們認為將從效率提高中獲得的收益感到興奮。

I don't know, Niraj, if you have anything to add.

Niraj，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的。

The only thing I'd add is just once -- and I tried to allude to this earlier, but the decisions we've already made, the actions we've already taken, the things that are underway actually get us to our profitability and free cash flow goals in a wide range of revenue outcomes already. So I wouldn't say that we've underwritten a sort of case that you'd call bullish that needs to play out on the top line to get there. So we feel very good about where we sit.

我唯一要補充的是只有一次——我之前曾嘗試提及這一點，但我們已經做出的決定、我們已經採取的行動、正在進行的事情實際上讓我們實現了盈利和已經在廣泛的收入結果中實現自由現金流目標。所以我不會說我們已經承保了一種你稱之為看漲的情況，需要在頂線發揮作用才能到達那裡。所以我們對自己坐的地方感覺很好。

Our next question comes from Atul Maheswari from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Atul Maheswari。

Thank you. Niraj, The reason why you're not providing a firm time line on EBITDA breakeven, whether it's second quarter or third quarter, is the reason that you're not providing that, is that because there is a lot of uncertainty in the macro, so you don't know how your top line is going to play out? Or are there other moving pieces that could move this time line out?

謝謝。 Niraj，你之所以沒有提供關於 EBITDA 盈虧平衡的明確時間表，無論是第二季度還是第三季度，是因為宏觀存在很多不確定性，所以你不知道你的頂線將如何發揮作用？或者是否有其他移動部件可以將這條時間線移出？

I mean while you can say there's always moving pieces, I think we have a pretty firm view of how it will play out. I think we've just stuck with our traditional stance for 8 years now of really not trying to provide a lot in the way of guidance. So we comment on the current quarter, and then we really focus on sharing where we're headed and the trajectory, the decisions we're making, the priorities we have. And we just try not to spend a lot of time -- I'm sure it's frustrating, but trying to tell folks how to model 1 quarter, 2 quarter, 3 quarter, 4 quarter. And I think we think that's better for focusing people on how the business will play out over time. That's really the reason.

我的意思是，雖然你可以說總有變化的部分，但我認為我們對它的結果有一個非常堅定的看法。我認為 8 年來我們一直堅持我們的傳統立場，即實際上並沒有嘗試提供太多指導方式。因此，我們對當前季度發表評論，然後我們真正專注於分享我們的前進方向和軌跡、我們正在做出的決定以及我們的優先事項。我們只是盡量不花很多時間——我敢肯定這很令人沮喪，但我們試圖告訴人們如何為第 1 個季度、第 2 個季度、第 3 個季度、第 4 個季度建模。而且我認為我們認為這更好地讓人們關注業務將如何隨著時間的推移發揮作用。真的是這個原因。

Yes. Atul, this is Kate. I'd just reiterate that we feel confident in our path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven. And we are focused on those cost line items. Clearly, revenue could be an accelerant one way or another. But even without that, we're committed to hitting it sooner than we had disclosed on the Q4 -- on the Q3 call in November. And we're just reaffirming what we said in our press release in January.

是的。阿圖爾，這是凱特。我只是重申，我們對調整後的 EBITDA 盈虧平衡之路充滿信心。我們專注於那些成本項目。顯然，收入可能以某種方式成為促進劑。但即使沒有，我們也承諾比我們在第四季度——在 11 月的第三季度電話會議上披露的更快地實現目標。我們只是重申我們在一月份的新聞稿中所說的話。

Got it. And then just a quick one on the free cash flow. You've reiterated that the EBITDA breakeven is going to be earlier than the fourth quarter. Should we expect free cash flow positive by at least the fourth quarter?

知道了。然後只是關於自由現金流的快速介紹。您重申 EBITDA 收支平衡將早於第四季度。我們是否應該預計至少第四季度的自由現金流為正？

So again, we don't guide to free cash flow positive, but let me give you a few thoughts on that, that may help how you frame the thinking. So first, I'd point you to this quarter, where we were essentially free cash flow breakeven, down only about $19 million on free cash flow. And some of that is due to the working capital seasonality of our business.

再說一次，我們不指導自由現金流為正，但讓我就此給你一些想法，這可能有助於你如何構建想法。所以首先，我要指出本季度，我們基本上是自由現金流收支平衡，自由現金流僅減少了約 1900 萬美元。其中一些是由於我們業務的營運資金季節性。

We operate on a negative working capital cycle. And so quarter-on-quarter of sequential positive growth, working capital will be a use of cash. That's why we mentioned on the call, Q4 to Q1, which is historically a period of quarter-on-quarter revenue decline, working capital will once again become a use of cash rather than a store.

我們在負營運資本週期中運作。因此，環比連續正增長，營運資金將成為現金的一種使用。這就是為什麼我們在電話會議上提到，從歷史上看，第四季度到第一季度是收入環比下降的時期，營運資金將再次成為現金使用而不是商店。

So as you model out a year, there's both the working capital dynamics and how those may play out based on our traditional seasonality and then there's the work we're doing to aggressively manage operating cash flow and continue to manage down those costs. And so I would think about the 2 of those things in conjunction if you think about free cash flow going forward.

因此，當你為一年建模時，既有營運資本動態，也有營運資本動態如何根據我們傳統的季節性發揮作用，然後是我們正在做的工作，以積極管理運營現金流並繼續降低這些成本。因此，如果您考慮未來的自由現金流，我會考慮其中的兩件事。

Our next question comes from Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

Thanks a lot, and good morning. There's still nice improvement in orders per customer, but we're also seeing still elevated customer churn. How are you thinking about customer churn rates in 2023 relative to the last couple of quarters here in '22?

非常感謝，早上好。每個客戶的訂單量仍然有很好的改善，但我們也看到客戶流失率仍在上升。相對於 22 世紀的最後幾個季度，您如何看待 2023 年的客戶流失率？

Yes, Seth, thanks for the question. We're actually seeing very nice traction with our customers. I tried to reference that -- I mean I think order count would be your proxy for customers being engaged where folks are basically buying, right? And that -- an order is the best proxy for a future order. And so the way to think about that is when the recipe was not intact, it obviously was less compelling for customers to return.

是的，賽斯，謝謝你的提問。我們實際上看到了對客戶的非常好的吸引力。我試圖引用這一點——我的意思是我認為訂單數量將代表你參與的客戶基本上是在購買的地方，對吧？而且 - 訂單是未來訂單的最佳代理。因此，考慮這一點的方法是，當食譜不完整時，顯然顧客退貨的吸引力就會降低。

Now the recipe basically, again, to sequence it right, availability got better in the spring last year. Speed got better in the summer. And in the fall, the retail prices got better. That got the full recipe intact. And obviously, having very compelling retail prices is key. During that period of peak inflation and supply chain scarcity, we were not able to have as compelling retail prices as we would like. We do now.

現在配方基本上，再一次，為了正確排序，去年春天可用性變得更好。速度在夏天變得更好。在秋天，零售價格變得更好。這讓完整的食譜完好無損。顯然，擁有極具吸引力的零售價格是關鍵。在那段通貨膨脹高峰和供應鏈短缺的時期，我們無法擁有我們想要的那樣具有吸引力的零售價格。我們現在做。

And so you've seen in the fourth quarter, you've seen the customer count and the order count grow. That's a trajectory that's continuing. So if you play that out over time, I think you're going to see the numbers go in the direction that we certainly want to see them go.

所以你在第四季度看到了客戶數量和訂單數量的增長。這是一個持續的軌跡。因此，如果你隨著時間的推移進行播放，我認為你會看到數字朝著我們當然希望看到的方向發展。

Yes. I think I'd clarify one thing, Seth. So I think you're looking at our active customer count. And remember, that's an LTM figure. So what you'll see happen there is customers cycle out that as we're anniversarying some of those COVID periods that were still elevated in the past 12 months. I think you're actually seeing the declines there moderate in the fourth quarter, and that's part of what Niraj spoke to in the orders being elevated as you start to bring on some new customers.

是的。我想我要澄清一件事，賽斯。所以我認為你正在查看我們的活躍客戶數量。請記住，這是一個 LTM 數字。所以你會看到發生的事情是客戶循環退出，因為我們正在紀念過去 12 個月中仍然升高的一些 COVID 時期。我認為你實際上看到第四季度的下降幅度不大，這是 Niraj 在開始吸引一些新客戶時訂單增加時所說的一部分。

We also disclosed a stat in our investor presentation, which we update and release today that builds on our total customer file of customers that have ever purchased from us at being $80 million strong. Obviously, our e-mail list is far greater than that. And we continue to see this as a source of strength that particularly in an environment where 1P marketing becomes important, we can go back to this group and get them to shop again. So that active customer number is a little wonky in the LTM basis that it's on.

我們還在我們的投資者介紹中披露了一項統計數據，我們今天更新並發布了該數據，該數據基於我們曾經從我們這裡購買過的客戶的總客戶檔案，價值 8000 萬美元。顯然，我們的電子郵件列表遠不止於此。我們繼續將此視為力量的源泉，特別是在 1P 營銷變得重要的環境中，我們可以回到這個群體並讓他們再次購物。因此，活躍客戶數量在其所處的 LTM 基礎上有點不穩定。

Got it. Yes. That $80 million stat is interesting, but also implies that you've touched the majority of home purchasing households in the U.S., and you think that, that still is active ground to reacquire those customers as opposed to customers who have already experienced Wayfair and will come back.

知道了。是的。 8000 萬美元的數據很有趣，但也意味著您已經觸及了美國大多數購房家庭，並且您認為這仍然是重新吸引這些客戶的活躍基礎，而不是已經體驗過 Wayfair 並將回來。

Seth, we think there's actually a lot of folks we also have not yet had purchase from us, because remember, that $80 million would include not just households or consumers, it would include the B2B customers. And the Wayfair Professional business is a smaller piece of our total business, but meaningful, and it would include all the international geographies, both B2C and B2B as well.

賽斯，我們認為實際上還有很多人我們還沒有從我們這裡購買過，因為請記住，這 8000 萬美元不僅包括家庭或消費者，還包括 B2B 客戶。 Wayfair Professional 業務是我們總業務的一小部分，但意義重大，它將包括所有國際地區，包括 B2C 和 B2B。

Our next question comes from Steven Forbes from Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Steven Forbes。

I wanted to start with international profitability. And really just curious if you could take a step back for us and maybe just reframe how you're thinking about the near-term and medium-term opportunity for the free cash flow needs to support those initiatives.

我想從國際盈利能力開始。真的很好奇您是否可以為我們退後一步，也許只是重新考慮您如何考慮自由現金流需要支持這些計劃的近期和中期機會。

And then maybe, Kate, if you can, help us frame how the cost actions impact the segment disclosures, right, in essence, as we think about international profitability into the first quarter?

然後，凱特，如果可以的話，也許可以幫助我們確定成本行動如何影響細分市場披露，從本質上講，當我們考慮第一季度的國際盈利能力時？

Yes. Sure, Steven. Thanks for the question. The way to think about -- so first of all, the international segment is the compilation of Canada, Germany and the U.K. And those 3 countries are each at different stages of maturity, Canada being the most mature household brand, significant penetration there. The U.K.'s second household brand leadership role as well, very nice penetration, not quite as high as Canada. And then Germany would be the least mature of the 3, not quite at household brand status, kind of on the way.

是的。當然，史蒂文。謝謝你的問題。思考的方式——首先，國際部分是加拿大、德國和英國的集合。這三個國家各自處於不同的成熟階段，加拿大是最成熟的家居品牌，在那裡滲透率很高。英國的第二家電品牌領導角色，滲透率非常好，不如加拿大高。然後德國將是這三個國家中最不成熟的，還不是家喻戶曉的品牌，有點在路上。

And then each of those 3 are in a different macroeconomic environment. All 3 kind of similar to one another, more challenged in the U.S., stronger first half last year off the COVID sort of environment in the U.S., but different than each other as well.

然後這 3 個中的每一個都處於不同的宏觀經濟環境中。這三種情況彼此相似，在美國面臨更多挑戰，去年上半年在美國的 COVID 類環境下表現更強勁，但也彼此不同。

And so the trajectory on international profitability, each of those countries has a nice trajectory on the path to get there. And then you add it up and you'll see that total segment. So it's not like one thing, but let me turn it over to Kate, who maybe can answer your question about how to think about...

因此，國際盈利能力的軌跡，這些國家中的每一個在實現目標的道路上都有一個很好的軌跡。然後你把它加起來，你會看到總的部分。所以這不是一回事，但讓我把它交給凱特，她也許可以回答你關於如何思考的問題……

Yes. I would think about the cost cutting that we did as being expansive across our entire portfolio of brands and geographies. So it wasn't as if anything was excluded from that work. So the cost cuts that we've talked about on, for example, on the compensation and the risk, those were related in Europe as well where we have a team on the ground. We obviously don't have a large team on the ground in Canada.

是的。我會考慮我們所做的成本削減，將其擴展到我們的整個品牌和地區組合。因此，似乎沒有任何東西被排除在這項工作之外。因此，我們所討論的成本削減，例如，關於薪酬和風險的削減，與歐洲以及我們在實地擁有團隊的地方有關。顯然，我們在加拿大沒有一支龐大的實地團隊。

Similarly, the operational cost savings that we're making, those are impacting our international businesses. We also spoke in our press release about savings relative to plan on our advertising spend and capital expenditures. And again, those also apply to our European business and our international portfolio as a whole.

同樣，我們正在節省的運營成本正在影響我們的國際業務。我們還在新聞稿中談到了相對於我們的廣告支出和資本支出計劃的節省。同樣，這些也適用於我們的歐洲業務和我們的整個國際投資組合。

So when you think about the cost savings, you should think about them as being broad-based, and we're scrutinizing every area of the business.

因此，當您考慮成本節約時，您應該將它們視為基礎廣泛的，我們正在審查業務的每個領域。

And then maybe just a quick follow-up to Seth's question. I took you guys putting that slide in there in the presentation, the customer filed $80 million. I'm not sure if you're trying to indicate something, but maybe Niraj, you can sort of speak to your reactivation efforts of the lapsed customer base? And then, I guess, most importantly, as we think about that LTM number that gets disclosed, have we reached a point at where you can sort of predict or foresee internally or the return to active customer growth as that disclosure is defined?

然後可能只是對賽斯問題的快速跟進。我帶你們把那張幻燈片放在演示文稿中，客戶提交了 8000 萬美元。我不確定你是否想表明什麼，但也許 Niraj，你可以談談你對流失客戶群的重新激活工作？然後，我想，最重要的是，當我們考慮披露的 LTM 數字時，我們是否達到了可以在內部預測或預見的程度，或者按照披露的定義恢復活躍的客戶增長？

Yes. So a few thoughts. So one, that LTM number, obviously, if you believe that on that order count and the recipe being intact, things have turned, it then takes a full 12 months before that number reflects a full year's worth, right? So that's one thing.

是的。所以有一些想法。所以一個，那個 LTM 數字，顯然，如果你相信訂單數量和配方完好無損，那麼事情已經發生了變化，那麼這個數字需要整整 12 個月才能反映一整年的價值，對吧？所以這是一回事。

Second thing is that number, the definition of the active customer numbers bought within the last 12 months, so there's different kind of levels of engagement. There's people who have not shown up on the site at all. And then there's folks who visit on the site. And so there's some stats in the investor deck as well on that. So I think we said that the site and app visits last year were 3 billion visits.

第二件事是該數字，即過去 12 個月內購買的活躍客戶數量的定義，因此存在不同類型的參與度。有些人根本沒有出現在網站上。然後是訪問網站的人。因此，投資者平台上也有一些統計數據。所以我想我們說去年網站和應用程序的訪問量是 30 億次。

So if you take the active customer number, you divide it by the visit number, the number of visits you would get per customer would seem incredibly high, which basically tells you that, that's probably unlikely, right, which means that there's a lot of people who visited who haven't yet bought. And so if you say, oh, the recipe is back intact, they're doing things that seem to be working, customers are reacting, well, the conclusion I would think you would draw is that there's a lot of other people who are getting more engaged and have become quite engaged who haven't yet bought.

因此，如果您將活躍客戶數除以訪問次數，每個客戶的訪問次數似乎高得令人難以置信，這基本上告訴您，這可能不太可能，對吧，這意味著有很多訪問過但尚未購買的人。所以如果你說，哦，食譜完好無損，他們正在做的事情似乎有效，客戶正在做出反應，好吧，我想你會得出的結論是，有很多其他人正在尚未購買的人更投入，並且已經變得非常投入。

So the way to think about that is that there's a cohort coming along, which is not just in the active number yet, but it's more engaged and coming behind them. So there's -- I mean, on reactivation, obviously, we think about that a lot. The COVID period had a very unusual shape to it with the Q2 of '20 being this huge spike up. So there's a lot of people who've had different levels of engagement. But if you look at it in a more recent period, you see this nice upswing of people who both bought, which is in the number, and people who have not yet bought but would be in the visits and the app visits type number.

因此，考慮這一點的方法是，有一個隊列正在出現，這不僅在活躍人數上，而且更加參與並落後於他們。所以 - 我的意思是，在重新激活時，顯然，我們考慮了很多。 COVID 時期的形狀非常不尋常，20 世紀第二季度出現瞭如此巨大的飆升。所以有很多人有不同程度的參與。但是如果你在最近一段時間看它，你會看到既有購買的人（在數量上）的上升，也有尚未購買但會出現在訪問次數和應用程序訪問類型數字中的人。

Our next question comes from Anna Andreeva from Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Anna Andreeva。

We wanted to follow up on the guide. You said you're seeing normal seasonality, but the 1Q guide implies a trend that's below the historic seasonality for the business. So is the takeaway for us that January perhaps started off slow, but the trend has improved in Feb. Any comment on how President's Day played out for the business?

我們想跟進指南。你說你看到了正常的季節性，但 1Q 指南暗示了一種低於企業歷史季節性的趨勢。那麼 1 月份對我們來說可能開始緩慢，但趨勢在 2 月份有所改善。關於總統日對企業的影響有何評論？

So let me answer -- let me just say a couple of thoughts, and then I'll let Kate opine. So if you look at the year, if you forget about what happened last year, you look at the year, you're seeing a very nice seasonal pattern which was strong since the beginning of the year. If you compare it year-over-year, the percentages shift, and they shift not because of what's happened this year, but because of the shape of the COVID-related excess demand around the Omicron spike last year.

所以讓我回答——我只想說幾個想法，然後我會讓凱特發表意見。因此，如果你看看這一年，如果你忘記了去年發生的事情，看看這一年，你會看到一個非常好的季節性模式，從年初開始就很強勁。如果你將它與去年同期進行比較，百分比會發生變化，而且它們的變化不是因為今年發生了什麼，而是因為去年 Omicron 飆升期間與 COVID 相關的超額需求的形狀。

So it's all in what frame you want to put on that. From a predictive standpoint, the seasonal cadence would tell you more than trying to do the mathematical formula of the COVID spike on Omicron and the downslope of Omicron and what happened next, et cetera -- stimulus, et cetera.

所以這一切都在你想要放在什麼框架上。從預測的角度來看，季節性節奏比嘗試計算 Omicron 上的 COVID 尖峰和 Omicron 的下坡以及接下來發生的事情等的數學公式更能告訴你 - 刺激等等。

But Kate, I don't...

但是凱特，我不...

Yes. I guess I would just point you to -- I think what we said was that we were seeing seasonality in our core business, so as you think about our U.S. Wayfair business. And then the other thing that I would add is from a seasonality perspective, we do typically see the outdoor season start in March. That is generally what is guiding that pickup in March as we hold to the seasonality that we're seeing. And then that's how we end up at the guide of negative high single digits versus where we are quarter-to-date.

是的。我想我只想指出你——我想我們所說的是我們在核心業務中看到了季節性，所以當你考慮我們的美國 Wayfair 業務時。然後我要補充的另一件事是從季節性的角度來看，我們通常會看到戶外季節從三月開始。這通常是引導 3 月份回升的原因，因為我們堅持我們所看到的季節性。然後這就是我們如何最終達到負高個位數的指南，而不是我們季度至今的位置。

And I'll just say, we also -- we were very happy with President's Day. So that did go well.

我只想說，我們也對總統日感到非常高興。所以那確實很順利。

Our next question comes from John Blackledge from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

Two questions. The ad expense as a percent of revenue has been elevated the last few quarters and into 1Q as well. Kind of what are the drivers? And how should that track over the course of the year?

兩個問題。廣告費用佔收入的百分比在過去幾個季度和第一季度都有所上升。什麼樣的驅動程序？在這一年中應該如何追踪？

And then the second question is, could you discuss the key drivers of the market share gains in 4Q? Do you think they're kind of -- you're kind of holding those share gains thus far in 1Q? And at a higher level, kind of what would it take for Wayfair to get back to the pre-COVID incremental market share gains, which at times, I think, you disclosed were as high as 20% or 30%?

然後第二個問題是，您能否討論一下第四季度市場份額增長的主要驅動因素？你認為他們有點 - 你在第一季度持有這些股票收益嗎？在更高的層面上，Wayfair 需要做些什麼才能恢復到 COVID 之前的增量市場份額收益，我認為，你披露的市場份額有時高達 20% 或 30%？

Thanks, John. So on your first question about the ad cost, and I think you're looking at the ACNR so as a percentage of revenue being elevated. I think the best way to think about that is, that percentage reflects a mix of free traffic, which has zero cost. So this is people coming directly to Wayfair, people who have the app and open it, people click on an e-mail, et cetera and paid traffic. And this is like the paid media spend that you're all familiar with as well.

謝謝，約翰。因此，關於您關於廣告成本的第一個問題，我認為您正在關注 ACNR，因此佔收入的百分比有所提高。我認為最好的思考方式是，該百分比反映了零成本的免費流量組合。所以這是直接來到 Wayfair 的人，擁有應用程序並打開它的人，人們點擊電子郵件，等等和付費流量。這就像你們都熟悉的付費媒體支出一樣。

And in a period of time where the category is not top of mind, and since last summer, that demand easing as we went into last summer was basically a function of discretionary spending shifting to travel, leisure and entertainment. And so you see that being above trend, and you see this category being below trend. And that's just reflective of this category and being less top of mind. Those are the categories being more top of mind.

在這個類別不是最重要的時期，自去年夏天以來，我們進入去年夏天時的需求放緩基本上是可自由支配的支出轉向旅遊、休閒和娛樂的結果。所以你看到它高於趨勢，你看到這個類別低於趨勢。這只是這一類別的反映，並不是最重要的。這些是更重要的類別。

You see free traffic get softened. The paid traffic, though doesn't necessarily get softened because we manage that very quantitatively around paybacks. And in fact, if anything, we've heightened the paybacks by cutting out some of the ad spend that was more speculative, that would be the highest ACNR ad spend, which is one of the things we referenced in the $1.4 billion of cost actions.

您會看到免費流量變軟了。付費流量不一定會減少，因為我們圍繞回報進行了非常量化的管理。事實上，如果有的話，我們通過削減一些更具投機性的廣告支出來提高回報，這將是最高的 ACNR 廣告支出，這是我們在 14 億美元的成本行動中提到的事情之一.

So what you're going to see is ACNR, of course, gets better just off cutting out that ad spend. But frankly, the biggest thing that will make it better over time is that sort of category getting back to the mean and that sort of -- the free basically is a proxy of that recovery, whereas the engaged base, but the question is how top of mind is the category? And so that will play out. And we're seeing, as I mentioned, some nice signs in the business, as I mentioned, on the recipe and on the traction of the seasonal cadence.

所以你將看到的是 ACNR，當然，只要減少廣告支出就會變得更好。但坦率地說，隨著時間的推移，讓它變得更好的最重要的事情是那種類別回到均值，而那種——免費基本上是這種複甦的代表，而參與的基礎，但問題是如何達到最高水平心目中的類別是什麼？所以這將發揮作用。正如我提到的，我們正在看到業務中的一些好跡象，正如我提到的，在配方和季節性節奏的牽引力上。

On your second question about the market share in the fourth quarter, I would not say the market share got better in the fourth quarter, I'd say the market share got better starting in the fourth quarter. And so we believe that we're doing well, we believe we're doing well this quarter.

關於第四季度市場份額的第二個問題，我不會說第四季度市場份額有所好轉，我會說市場份額從第四季度開始有所好轉。所以我們相信我們做得很好，我們相信我們本季度做得很好。

We just came off a lot of trade shows, the beginning of the year has a tremendous number of supplier trade shows. And what we've heard from suppliers is the feedback that they saw us taking share starting in the fourth quarter. They've seen us continue to take share this year. We believe we're seeing that in credit card data.

我們剛剛結束了很多貿易展，年初有大量的供應商貿易展。我們從供應商那裡聽到的是他們看到我們從第四季度開始分享的反饋。他們看到我們今年繼續佔據份額。我們相信我們在信用卡數據中看到了這一點。

And so we think that recipe being intact and then all the things we're doing around leading in to providing the customers with value, helping our suppliers deliver that value, that it's working. And so we feel very good about how that will continue to play out. And as you roll forward, we're very confident in how our results will play out.

因此，我們認為配方是完整的，然後我們正在做的所有事情都是為了為客戶提供價值，幫助我們的供應商提供價值，它正在發揮作用。因此，我們對這將如何繼續發揮作用感到非常滿意。當你向前推進時，我們對我們的結果將如何發揮非常有信心。

Kate, anything you'd want to add to that?

凱特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that covers it. And I think that was our last question.

不，我認為這涵蓋了它。我認為這是我們的最後一個問題。

We are out of time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to the Wayfair team for closing remarks.

我們今天沒有時間提問。我想將電話轉回給 Wayfair 團隊以作結束語。

Thanks, everybody. I'll endeavor to have my voice back for the next call. And thank you all for joining today.

謝謝大家。我會努力在下次通話時恢復聲音。感謝大家今天的加入。

Thanks all.

謝謝大家。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。