Vistra Corp. (VST) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Vistra's investor webcast discussing first quarter 2022 results. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎收看 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，討論 2022 年第一季業績。（接線員指示）在今天的簡報之後，將有提問時間。（接線員指示）請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Meagan Horn。請開始。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Vistra's investor webcast discussing first quarter 2022 results, which is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistracorp.com.

謝謝，早安。歡迎收看 Vistra 的投資人網路直播，討論 2022 年第一季業績；本直播正透過我們網站 www.vistracorp.com 的投資人關係專區進行即時播出。

Also available on our website are copies of today's investor presentation, our Form 10-Q and the related press release. Joining me for today's call are Curt Morgan, our Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Burke, our President and Chief Financial Officer. We have a few additional senior executives present to address questions during the second part of today's call as necessary.

我們的網站也提供今日投資人簡報、Form 10-Q 以及相關新聞稿的副本。今天與我一同參與電話會議的有我們的執行長 Curt Morgan，以及我們的總裁兼財務長 Jim Burke。另有幾位資深主管也在場，將在今日電話會議的第二部分視需要協助回答問題。

Before we begin our presentation, I encourage all listeners to review the safe harbor statements included on Slide 2 in the investor presentation on our website that explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation and the use of non-GAAP financial measures.

在開始簡報之前，我鼓勵所有聽眾先行閱讀我們網站投資人簡報第 2 頁的安全港聲明，其中說明前瞻性陳述的風險、簡報中所含特定產業與市場資料的限制，以及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的使用。

Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述係基於我們僅就今日日期所認為合理的假設。此類前瞻性陳述受若干風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與所預測或暗示者有重大差異。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述之義務。

Further, today's press release, slide presentation and discussions on this call will include certain non-GAAP financial measures. For such measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the press release and in the appendix to the investor presentation. I will now turn the call over to Curt Morgan to kick off our discussion.

此外，今日新聞稿、投影片簡報以及本次電話會議的討論將包含若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。就該等指標而言，與最直接可比之 GAAP 指標的調節表已載於新聞稿及投資人簡報附錄中。現在我將把電話會議交給 Curt Morgan 來開始我們的討論。

Thank you, Meagan. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for your continued interest in Vistra. Getting started with Slide 5.

謝謝你，Meagan。各位早安，也感謝各位持續關注 Vistra。讓我們從第 5 頁開始。

I've mentioned before that 2022 is a year of executing on the strategic priorities we outlined in the third quarter of 2021, shown on this slide. Importantly, Vistra has started on the right foot in 2022 with Q1 results consistent with our expectations, and it is noteworthy that our confidence regarding 2022 has grown.

我先前提過，2022 年是執行我們在 2021 年第三季所提出之策略優先事項的一年，如本頁所示。重要的是，Vistra 在 2022 年開局良好，第一季業績符合我們的預期；值得注意的是，我們對 2022 年的信心也有所提升。

However, to me, the bigger story is the material movement in energy commodities complex forward curves for '23 and beyond. And our emphasis on a comprehensive hedge strategy, capitalizing on this move that began last year, continued in the first quarter and continues today. Notably, we expect this upward trend to continue given how the U.S. and world energy situation is set up, especially regarding ESG and boardroom actions in response, combined with strong demand and geopolitical events.

然而，對我而言，更大的故事是 2023 年及其後能源商品綜合體遠期曲線出現了顯著變動。我們強調全面性的避險策略，並把握這項自去年開始、在第一季延續且至今仍在持續的走勢。值得注意的是，鑑於美國與全球能源情勢的結構，特別是 ESG 以及董事會層級因應所採取的行動，再加上強勁需求與地緣政治事件，我們預期此上升趨勢將持續。

In a nutshell, the U.S. natural gas complex is already tight and likely to be increasingly tied to world gas economics. As an expanding pivotal supplier on the world stage, we expect U.S. supply and demand to tighten even further. Higher natural gas prices in turn lead to higher power prices, and Vistra is long power and natural gas equivalents.

簡而言之，美國天然氣市場本就供需吃緊，且很可能愈來愈與全球天然氣經濟連動。作為全球舞台上日益重要的關鍵供應者，我們預期美國供需將進一步收緊。天然氣價格走高將帶動電力價格上升，而 Vistra 在電力與天然氣等值部位上為淨多頭。

Frankly, in my 40 years, I have not seen a confluence of events quite like this. Certainly, Vistra is in the right position to capitalize on the strong forward curves. The effectiveness of our execution will be key as the day-to-day volatility is extraordinary. It is a rare opportunity presented to us and it is our job to create the most value out of it while managing the risk.

坦白說，在我 40 年的職涯中，從未見過如此多事件同時匯聚。Vistra 的確處於有利位置，可把握強勁的遠期曲線。由於日常波動極為劇烈，我們執行的有效性將是關鍵。這是難得的機會，而我們的工作是在管理風險的同時，創造最大的價值。

Our prudent hedging strategy has resulted in Vistra locking in material out-year value in the '23 to '25 timeframe. And it is worth noting that the forwards have also risen materially out to 2030. The market clearly believes there has been a fundamental shift in the energy commodity complex, and it started before the aggression against Ukraine.

我們審慎的避險策略，使 Vistra 在 2023 至 2025 年期間鎖定了可觀的未來年度價值。值得一提的是，遠期價格一路到 2030 年也大幅上升。市場顯然認為能源商品綜合體已發生根本性轉變，而且這在對烏克蘭的侵略行動之前就已開始。

This shift, as reflected in the forwards, offers continued opportunities to hedge more while remaining mindful of the potential liquidity requirements against further commodity price moves. The good news is that this offers right-way risk with our open position as well as the significant value already hedged.

這項轉變反映在遠期價格上，提供我們在留意商品價格進一步波動可能帶來的流動性需求之同時，持續增加避險的機會。好消息是，這對我們的未平倉部位以及已避險鎖定的可觀價值而言，屬於「順向風險」（right-way risk）。

We also have tandem hedged, other risks associated with our commodity hedge positions, such as fuel and basis differentials. Our generation fleet has also performed exceptionally well at an average commercial availability in the mid-90s percent as a critical component of our hedging strategies. We bolstered this exceptional historical performance by the additional expenditures after Uri to derisk our ERCOT plant operations, and as we have mentioned in the past, we hold back generation to cover forced outages, all to manage any risk exposure that hedges can expose us to.

我們也同步對沖了與商品避險部位相關的其他風險，例如燃料與基差差異。我們的發電機組也表現極佳，平均商業可用率維持在 90% 中段，這是我們避險策略的關鍵組成。Uri 事件後我們增加支出，以降低 ERCOT 電廠營運風險，進一步強化這項卓越的歷史表現；此外，如同我們過去所提，我們會保留部分發電量以因應非計畫停機，藉此管理避險可能使我們暴露的任何風險。

Our primary focus when hedging is on managing risk while capturing value. We are not focused on picking the absolute peak. Our experience is that this futile endeavor leads to a significant risk of missing the opportunity entirely. As it relates to 2022, while we were considerably hedged coming into the year, our open position in the summer months could now benefit from the power price environment, which we expect to remain intact given the likely continued strength of natural gas prices, as I just discussed. This is our expectation even without an extreme weather event.

我們避險的首要重點是在掌控風險的同時捕捉價值；我們不著眼於抓到絕對高點。依我們的經驗，這種徒勞的嘗試反而會大幅提高完全錯失機會的風險。就 2022 年而言，雖然我們在進入今年時已大幅避險，但我們在夏季月份的未避險部位，如今可能受惠於電價環境；如我剛才所述，考量天然氣價格可能持續走強，我們預期此環境將維持。即使沒有極端天氣事件，這也是我們的預期。

In addition, our retail business continues to deliver strong margins while organically growing customer counts as customers in ERCOT value quality retail names like TXU Energy and Ambit. Jim will speak to the significant value capture opportunity in more detail momentarily. But in sum, the EBITDA outlook for Vistra through 2025 has now increased to potentially over $1 billion even with prudently conservative estimates and the market has only continued to move up.

此外，我們的零售業務持續提供強勁的利潤率，同時在 ERCOT 市場中，因客戶重視如 TXU Energy 與 Ambit 等高品質零售品牌而帶動客戶數自然成長。Jim 稍後將更詳細說明可觀的價值擷取機會。總結而言，即使採用審慎保守的估計，Vistra 至 2025 年的 EBITDA 展望如今已提高，潛在增幅可超過 10 億美元，而市場走勢也持續上行。

As briefly mentioned a moment ago, a robust hedging strategy, of course, requires significant liquidity as collateral postings are required. Notably, our commitment to a strong balance sheet with significant liquidity has positioned us with the cash and access to capital necessary to make the collateral postings while continuing to execute solidly on our $2 billion share repurchase program and pay out significant dividends to our shareholders of record.

如同剛才簡要提及，健全的避險策略當然需要大量流動性，因為必須提供擔保品。值得注意的是，我們對強健資產負債表與充足流動性的承諾，使我們具備必要的現金與資本取得能力，得以支付擔保品，同時持續穩健執行 20 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫，並向登記在冊股東發放可觀股利。

Of course, in this environment, you can never have enough liquidity. As such, we continually look for ways to efficiently manage our liquidity and are working diligently to enhance access to capital so we can further take advantage of the long-dated move up and forward and capture value for our shareholders. We believe these efforts will be successful given the significant strength of our business and the amount of forward value we can lock in.

當然，在這樣的環境下，流動性永遠不嫌多。因此，我們持續尋求更有效率的方式管理流動性，並正積極強化資本取得能力，以便進一步把握長天期遠期上行走勢，為股東擷取價值。鑑於我們業務的顯著韌性，以及我們能鎖定的遠期價值規模，我們相信這些努力將會成功。

Finally, we remain committed to sensibly progressing our fleet of zero carbon generation. As of today's call, we have completed construction of our Brightside and Emerald Grove solar facilities and our DeCordova battery energy storage facility in ERCOT. Additionally, we've been working around the clock to install replacement connectors in the water-based heat suppression safety systems at Moss 300 and Moss Landing 100 and expect to begin bringing those megawatts back online ahead of the hot California summer months.

最後，我們仍致力於以合理方式推進零碳發電機組的布局。截至今日電話會議，我們已完成在 ERCOT 的 Brightside 與 Emerald Grove 太陽能設施，以及 DeCordova 電池儲能設施的建置。此外，我們也日以繼夜地在 Moss 300 與 Moss Landing 100 的水基抑熱安全系統中安裝替換連接器，並預期在加州炎熱夏季來臨前，開始讓這些兆瓦容量重新併網。

Despite the challenges, the supply chain issues or the uncertainties around solar panel procurement that the Department of Commerce's anti-circumvention investigation are causing the industry, we find ourselves well positioned to navigate these particular headwinds and as we continue to advance the growth of our Vistra Zero portfolio.

儘管面臨挑戰，包括供應鏈問題，或美國商務部反規避調查所造成的太陽能板採購不確定性對產業帶來的影響，我們仍處於有利位置，能夠因應這些特定逆風，並持續推進 Vistra Zero 投資組合的成長。

Our planned 2022 development projects are constructed, and we've already procured panels for several of our next-in-line solar projects. Further, our remaining projects have a timeline that allows us to opportunistically contract at the right time. It is important to note that we will remain disciplined in our development efforts, especially given that we either have procured the equipment or have flexibility to time our projects with availability and pricing of equipment. It is also important to note that the supply chain bottlenecks and government actions are dampening the build-out of renewables in the U.S., placing more emphasis on the existing fleet of assets, especially natural gas fueled and nuclear power plants.

我們規劃於 2022 年的開發專案已完成建置，且我們已為數個下一批太陽能專案預先採購面板。此外，我們其餘專案的時程安排，讓我們得以在適當時點把握機會進行合約簽訂。需要強調的是，我們將在開發工作上維持紀律，特別是考量我們不是已採購設備，就是具備彈性可依設備供給與價格來安排專案時點。同樣重要的是，供應鏈瓶頸與政府行動正在抑制美國再生能源的擴建速度，使市場更倚重既有資產機組，尤其是天然氣燃料與核能電廠。

As we have said many times before, natural gas fueled power plants are going to be critical to a rational and just transition to a decarbonized electric system.

正如我們之前多次提到的，以天然氣為燃料的發電廠將是實現理性且公正地過渡至去碳化電力系統的關鍵。

Moving now to Slide 6. In the first quarter, we achieved $547 million of adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations in line with our expectations. Notably, this year, our first quarter results are a smaller contribution to our overall annual earnings as compared to certain prior year first quarters. But this new earnings shape was expected for 2022 and is correlated to the seasonality of our retail business in the ERCOT market during the winter months with higher cost of goods sold locked in to hedge retail sales.

現在翻到第 6 張投影片。第一季，我們持續營運的調整後 EBITDA 達 5.47 億美元，符合我們的預期。值得注意的是，今年第一季的業績對我們全年總獲利的貢獻，相較於過去某些年度的第一季更小。但這種新的獲利型態在 2022 年即已預期，並與我們在 ERCOT 市場冬季月份零售業務的季節性相關；由於為對沖零售銷售而鎖定較高的銷貨成本，導致該季表現如此。

However, there is greater margin opportunity expected in the remaining months in both our retail and wholesale businesses. With that said, the Retail segment performed above expectations in Q1 in ERCOT with notable organic customer count growth and strong margin performance.

然而，預期在接下來數月，我們的零售與批發業務都將有更大的毛利機會。即便如此，零售事業部在第一季於 ERCOT 的表現仍優於預期，客戶數量出現顯著的有機成長，且毛利表現強勁。

Our Generation segment came in a little below expectations, largely due to a greater open position and lower realized prices from a weaker winter. However, with very strong performance in commercial availability rates at the plants of approximately 96% in this first quarter. We are reaffirming our previously announced guidance of adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of $2.81 billion to $3.31 billion and adjusted free cash flows before growth from ongoing operations of $2.07 billion to $2.57 billion.

我們的發電事業部略低於預期，主要原因是未對沖部位較大，以及冬季偏弱導致實現價格較低。不過，本季電廠商業可用率表現非常強勁，約為 96%。我們重申先前公布的指引：持續營運的調整後 EBITDA 為 28.1 億至 33.1 億美元；持續營運、成長投資前的調整後自由現金流為 20.7 億至 25.7 億美元。

We retain the ranges as we are still early in the year, have the summer months ahead of us, and at this point in time, we continue to carry a little more open position than in the past for risk management purposes. However, we reaffirm this guidance with increased confidence given the favorable energy commodities markets we continue to experience.

我們維持該區間，因為目前仍在年初，夏季月份尚未到來，且就風險管理目的而言，此時我們仍維持比過去略高的未對沖部位。然而，鑑於我們持續面臨有利的能源商品市場，我們以更高的信心重申此一指引。

In closing, Vistra is very well positioned, especially given the current market environment. Execution is key in 2022 and beyond, especially related to our hedging in forward years and managing adequate liquidity.

總結而言，Vistra 的定位非常良好，尤其是在目前的市場環境下。2022 年及未來的關鍵在於執行力，特別是與我們在遠期年度的避險，以及管理充足流動性相關的工作。

Now before I turn it over to Jim, as you are likely all aware, this will be my last earnings call as CEO of Vistra. It has been my distinct honor and privilege to serve you all for nearly 6 years. I want to thank our many stakeholders for their support throughout my tenure. In particular, all of you who entrusted us with your hard-earned money. I know, I gave it my best to do business the right way and create value for our investors. I'm proud of all that we've accomplished and believe Vistra is well positioned to drive continued industry leadership. This is simply the right time for me to transition the CEO role to Jim.

在我把電話交給 Jim 之前，如各位可能都已知悉，這將是我以 Vistra 執行長身分主持的最後一次法說會。能在近 6 年間為各位服務，是我莫大的榮幸與特權。我要感謝眾多利害關係人在我任內給予的支持。尤其是各位將辛苦賺來的資金託付給我們的人。我知道我已盡最大努力以正確的方式經營並為投資人創造價值。我為我們所達成的一切感到自豪，也相信 Vistra 已具備良好條件，能持續引領產業。現在正是我將執行長職務交棒給 Jim 的適當時機。

Jim has done everything to be prepared for this demanding job. After having worked with Jim for many years, I have the utmost confidence in his capabilities, commitment to Vistra and his leadership skills. He has a deep experience and knowledge of our business, including an understanding of how the disparate parts of the company work together.

Jim 已為這份高要求的工作做足準備。與 Jim 共事多年後，我對他的能力、對 Vistra 的承諾以及領導才能抱持最高的信心。他對我們的業務具有深厚的經驗與知識，也了解公司各個不同部分如何協同運作。

I am certain and our Board is certain that he is the right person to lead us through our next phase as we execute on our capital allocation plan, including substantial return of capital and expansion of our Vistra Zero portfolio.

我確信，我們的董事會也確信，他是帶領我們進入下一階段的最佳人選；我們將執行資本配置計畫，包括大幅回饋資本以及擴展 Vistra Zero 投資組合。

Finally, to the incredible team members at Vistra. I have never been more honored and proud to work with a group of people. Your life has shown brightly through thick and thin, and I am grateful for the time we had together. I believe there is a tremendous opportunity ahead for Vistra as a leader in the power business and look forward to watching that come to fruition.

最後，致 Vistra 令人敬佩的團隊成員：我從未如此感到榮幸與自豪，能與這樣一群人共事。無論順境逆境，你們的生命力都熠熠生輝，我感謝我們共同度過的時光。我相信 Vistra 作為電力業的領導者，前方有巨大的機會，也期待見證其開花結果。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jim.

接下來，我把電話交給 Jim。

Thank you, Curt. I will get into additional details surrounding our first quarter's financial performance outlook and our strategy. But before I do so, I want to express my appreciation for all Curt has done to lead this company over the past 6 years. Curt has been a mentor and a friend to me. But more importantly, Curt has been a champion of Vistra and its many varied stakeholders.

謝謝你，Curt。我將進一步說明第一季財務表現展望與我們的策略。但在此之前，我想表達我對 Curt 在過去 6 年領導公司所做一切的感謝。Curt 一直是我的導師與朋友；更重要的是，Curt 一直是 Vistra 及其多元利害關係人的堅定捍衛者。

Vistra's accomplishments under Curt's leadership since he took the helm in 2016 for many. We grew our business by acquiring Dynegy, Crius and Ambit, moving from a Texas-only company to one operating in over 20 states, delivering over $850 million a year in annual value drivers while pivoting the company to being predominantly a natural gas-powered fleet serving over 4 million retail customers and well positioned for future growth with Vistra Zero.

Vistra 在 Curt 自 2016 年接掌以來的領導下，取得了許多成就。我們透過收購 Dynegy、Crius 與 Ambit 擴大業務，從一家僅在德州營運的公司，轉型為在超過 20 個州營運的企業；每年帶來超過 8.5 億美元的年度價值驅動因素；同時推動公司轉型為以天然氣發電機組為主的資產組合，服務超過 400 萬名零售客戶，並透過 Vistra Zero 為未來成長做好布局。

Curt Championed the integrated model and highlighted the benefits of our commercial capability that is tightly integrated with our generation and retail businesses and the importance of a strong balance sheet. He pioneered our ESG and DEI efforts despite the challenges we faced with Uri and the COVID pandemic. These accomplishments, among many others, resulted in a doubling in value for our shareholders while also providing a strong foundation for the future.

Curt 倡導整合式商業模式，並強調我們與發電及零售業務緊密整合的商業能力所帶來的效益，以及強健資產負債表的重要性。儘管我們在 Uri 事件與 COVID 疫情期間面臨挑戰，他仍率先推動我們的 ESG 與 DEI 工作。這些成就以及其他許多努力，使股東價值翻倍，同時也為未來奠定堅實基礎。

I want to reassure you all on the call today that as CEO, I'm ready to build on what we have achieved, and I intend to remain focused on our previously announced capital allocation plan with a commitment, as always, to delivering sustainable, long-term value for our shareholders and other stakeholders.

我想在今天的電話會議上向各位保證，作為執行長，我已準備好在既有成果上再接再厲；我也將持續聚焦於我們先前公布的資本配置計畫，並一如既往地承諾為股東及其他利害關係人創造可持續的長期價值。

I am grateful to Curt and committed to do my best to lead Vistra going forward alongside some of the finest, most dedicated colleagues in our industry.

我感謝 Curt，並承諾將盡我所能，與本產業中最優秀、最投入的同仁們一起，帶領 Vistra 邁向未來。

Turning now to Slide 8. Vistra delivered strong financial results during the quarter that were in line with our expectations with adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of approximately $547 million. We recognize the quarter-over-quarter comparison is not meaningful given the Uri impacts to last year's earnings.

現在翻到第 8 張投影片。Vistra 本季交出強勁且符合預期的財務成果，持續營運的調整後 EBITDA 約為 5.47 億美元。我們也理解，由於去年獲利受到 Uri 事件影響，季對季比較並無太大意義。

Retail ended the first quarter in 2022 at $163 million of adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations, and our collective generation segments ended the quarter with $384 million in adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations. Despite the expected lower than historical contribution, we believe these first quarter results from ongoing operations positions us to achieve or exceed the midpoint of the EBITDA guidance previously announced.

2022 年第一季，零售業務的持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 1.63 億美元；我們合計的發電事業部本季持續營運調整後 EBITDA 為 3.84 億美元。儘管本季貢獻低於歷史水準屬預期之內，我們認為這些持續營運的第一季成果，使我們有望達成或超越先前公布 EBITDA 指引的中位數。

This quarter also continued the execution of our previously announced capital allocation plan. We repurchased approximately 18.6 million shares since our last reported share count as of February 22, 2022. As of May 3, 2022, we've repurchased approximately 54 million shares since the share buyback program was initiated, accounting for a total of approximately 10.5% of shares then outstanding.

本季也持續執行我們先前公布的資本配置計畫。自我們上次於 2022 年 2 月 22 日公布的股份數以來，我們已回購約 1,860 萬股。截至 2022 年 5 月 3 日，自股票回購計畫啟動以來，我們已回購約 5,400 萬股，約占當時流通在外股數的 10.5%。

Approximately 431.8 million shares remain outstanding as of May 3, 2022, and $805 million remains available for additional share repurchases for the remainder of 2022. The Board has also approved a quarterly dividend to be paid on the common stock in the amount of $0.177 per share payable on June 30, 2022. This is approximately 18% growth in dividend per share as compared to the dividend paid in the second quarter of 2021.

截至 2022 年 5 月 3 日，流通在外股數約為 4.318 億股；2022 年剩餘期間仍有 8.05 億美元可用於額外股票回購。董事會亦核准普通股季度股利，每股 0.177 美元，將於 2022 年 6 月 30 日支付。相較於 2021 年第二季支付的股利，這代表每股股利約成長 18%。

We continue to prioritize a strong balance sheet in the near term and are balancing the hedging opportunities to lock in value with ensuring sufficient liquidity for these dynamic markets. especially given that the hedging activity is locking in materially higher future earnings. We will continue to provide updates on the $1.5 billion debt repayment as the year progresses and as we capitalize on opportunities to lock in value and manage liquidity.

短期內，我們仍優先維持強健的資產負債表，並在把握避險鎖定價值的機會與確保在這些動態市場中具備充足流動性之間取得平衡。尤其是，避險活動正在鎖定顯著更高的未來獲利。隨著年度推進，以及我們把握鎖定價值與管理流動性的機會，我們將持續就 15 億美元的債務償還提供最新進展。

Similarly, we are committed to our transformational growth and are actively exploring avenues to support the Vistra Zero portfolio with nonrecourse financing where we find those financing markets remain open and with satisfactory interest rates. We can't discuss our capital allocation plan in full without acknowledging the commodities and power pricing environment that we've been experiencing this past quarter.

同樣地，我們致力於轉型式成長，並正積極探索透過無追索權融資來支持 Vistra Zero 投資組合的途徑；在我們認為相關融資市場仍然開放且利率水準令人滿意的情況下，我們將推進這些安排。若不提及過去一季我們所經歷的商品與電力定價環境，就無法完整討論我們的資本配置計畫。

As reflected on Slide 9, this quarter saw dramatic increases in both the ERCOT and PJM weighted spark spreads for 2023. These trends have continued through April and into May. Given the favorable environment, we've continued our hedging strategy to lock in value in 2023 and beyond. As of March 31, 2022, we were 93% and 96% hedged in Texas and East segments, respectively, for 2022, and we were 60% and 67% hedged in those segments, respectively, for 2023.

如第 9 張投影片所示，本季 ERCOT 與 PJM 的 2023 年加權火電價差（spark spreads）均大幅上升。這些趨勢在 4 月並延續至 5 月。鑑於有利的環境，我們持續執行避險策略，以鎖定 2023 年及更遠期的價值。截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日，我們在德州與東部事業部 2022 年的避險比例分別為 93% 與 96%；而在 2023 年，兩個事業部的避險比例分別為 60% 與 67%。

Turning now to Slide 10. This slide illustrates in more detail the phenomena we've all been observing, reflecting that power price forwards are up dramatically in correlation with the increase in the gas price forwards. This environment increases margins across our fleet in the money gas generation plants, coal, nuclear and renewables.

現在請看第10頁投影片。本頁更詳細地說明了我們大家一直在觀察到的現象，顯示電力遠期價格隨著天然氣遠期價格上升而大幅走高，兩者呈高度相關。在此環境下，我們整個機組組合中處於價內（in the money）的燃氣發電機組、燃煤、核能以及再生能源的利潤率都提高。

In addition to locking in the revenue values, we have also been hedging coal, gas and nuclear fuel cost as a result of our comprehensive hedging strategy. Vistra is now over 50% hedged across the years 2023 to 2025. To provide a sense of magnitude, we have stated in the past that we expect to consistently earn above $3 billion of adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations on a go-forward basis. Given the marks as of April 29, we now anticipate a risk-adjusted midpoint in the range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion for adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations for the years 2023 through 2025.

除了鎖定收入價值之外，基於我們全面性的避險策略，我們也一直在對沖煤炭、天然氣與核燃料成本。Vistra 目前在2023年至2025年各年度的整體避險比例已超過50%。為了讓大家了解量級，我們過去曾表示，預期未來在持續營運的基礎上，調整後EBITDA可穩定維持在30億美元以上。以4月29日的評價（marks）為基準，我們現在預期2023年至2025年持續營運的調整後EBITDA之風險調整後中位數將落在35億至37億美元區間。

Again, we are just over 50% hedged, so there is still a significant range around this midpoint. However, the curves have continued to move up materially since April 29. So we believe that range of estimates to be on the conservative side. We are continuing to execute on our comprehensive hedging strategy to lock in as much of that value as possible. Notably, a comprehensive hedging strategy requires significant liquidity for collateral postings. We are actively managing our liquidity requirements in a way that allows us to remain confident at this time that we can execute our hedging strategy and the capital allocation plan in tandem.

再次強調，我們目前僅略高於50%避險，因此圍繞此中位數仍存在相當大的波動範圍。不過，自4月29日以來，遠期曲線持續顯著上移。因此我們認為該估計區間偏保守。我們將持續執行全面性的避險策略，盡可能鎖定更多價值。值得注意的是，全面性的避險策略需要相當可觀的流動性以因應保證金（collateral）繳交。我們正積極管理流動性需求，使我們目前仍有信心能同時推進避險策略與資本配置計畫。

In closing, we continue to focus on execution in 2022, execution on the growth of our Vistra Zero portfolio, of our comprehensive hedging strategy and of our previously announced capital allocation plan. And we firmly believe in the value this execution will bring to our shareholders. We look forward to updating you on our achievements as we progress throughout the remainder of 2022.

最後，我們將持續聚焦於2022年的執行力：推動Vistra Zero投資組合的成長、落實全面性的避險策略，以及執行先前已公布的資本配置計畫。我們堅信，這些執行將為股東帶來價值。我們期待在2022年剩餘期間的推進過程中，向各位更新我們的成果。

With that, operator, we are now ready to open the lines for questions.

以上，接線員，我們現在準備開放提問。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

我們現在開始問答環節。（接線員指示）第一個問題來自Guggenheim Partners的Shahriar Pourreza。

So maybe if we could start with earnings and the hedging outlook and sort of in light of the current commodity environment. It looks like you guys hedged into '23 fairly well here versus February. And obviously, we appreciate the high-level color on '24 and '25 in the slides. But can you give us any more detail on the amount of hedging you've done into the outer years of the curve, if at all?

或許我們可以先從獲利與避險展望談起，並結合目前的大宗商品環境來看。相較於2月，你們在2023年的避險看起來做得相當不錯。我們也很感謝投影片中對2024與2025的高層次說明。但你們能否提供更多細節，說明你們在曲線較遠端年度所做的避險量（如果有的話）？

I mean, put differently, have you departed from -- your typical hedging profile here given the opportunities or fundamental view, I'm really thinking about your approach to 25 and '26, but I do obviously appreciate that the curves can get a little bit of liquid on the power side quickly so.

換句話說，鑑於目前的機會或基本面觀點，你們是否偏離了以往典型的避險輪廓？我主要想了解你們對2025與2026年的做法；當然我也理解，電力端的曲線流動性有時會很快變得比較薄。

Yes. So look, I'll start with a couple of opening questions, but Jim can then fill in with specifics and add his flavor to it. But look, I do think we've departed and we're going to depart. If anything, a message we deliver today is that we've got really one of the most rare opportunities in my career, and I've been around a long time, to lock in significant value in the out years. The curves have moved up -- sorry, even out into 2030. The thing you have to balance, all of us do, even if you're investment grade, is margins and posting and having enough liquidity. And we feel very good that we will be able to do that. But this is a rare opportunity for us, and this is a good news story. It's all about execution, and we feel good about it.

是的。先說幾點概括性的回應，之後Jim可以補充更具體的細節並加入他的看法。我確實認為我們已經有所偏離，而且也會繼續偏離。若要說我們今天要傳達的訊息之一，就是：在我的職涯中（我在這行很久了），這是極為罕見的機會，能在較遠期年度鎖定可觀的價值。曲線已經上移——抱歉，甚至一路延伸到2030年。你必須權衡的事情（我們所有人都一樣），即使你是投資級，也包括保證金與繳交（posting）所需的流動性是否充足。我們對自己能做到這點感到非常有信心。這對我們而言是罕見機會，也是個好消息。關鍵在於執行，而我們對此很有把握。

And then, of course, as these hedges realize, you got to run the assets. And the one thing that we've been very proud of through the years is just the incredible performance of our generating fleet to back up the hedges. So this is one of the best opportunities I've ever seen for a company like ours, and we just need to capitalize on it.

當然，隨著這些避險逐步實現，你也必須把資產跑起來。我們多年來一直引以為傲的一點，就是我們發電機組群的卓越表現，足以支撐這些避險。因此，對像我們這樣的公司而言，這是我見過最好的機會之一，我們只需要把握並加以利用。

So philosophically, we are departing a bit, and we are looking to hedge '24, '25, I suspect just given the way that the energy commodity price -- world markets are set up, we think this is going to be around a while, and we'll roll hedges into '26, '27 and beyond because we believe that you're going to see a strong natural gas market for many years to come.

因此從理念上來說，我們確實會稍微調整做法，並希望對2024、2025進行避險。我猜測，考量能源大宗商品價格——以及全球市場的結構，我們認為這種情況會持續一段時間；我們也會把避險往2026、2027及更遠期滾動，因為我們相信未來多年天然氣市場都會維持強勢。

So it's a rare situation and one we have to step up and capitalize on. And Jim can tell you a little more about the specifics of what we've done in '24 or '25 because we have done some significant hedging, which is rare for us because you know this, Shar. Generally, these curves are backward dated. And we are seeing pricing that is at or above our point of view. And we've told you that when we see prices at or above our point of view, we expect to hedge, and we're not trying to pick the highs. We're just trying to lock value, and then we just have to execute from that.

這是罕見情境，我們必須挺身而出並把握。Jim可以更具體說明我們在2024或2025做了哪些事，因為我們確實做了一些相當可觀的避險；這對我們而言並不常見，因為你也知道，Shar，一般來說這些曲線是呈現明顯的逆價差（backwardation）。而我們現在看到的定價已達到或高於我們的觀點（point of view）。我們也告訴過各位，當價格達到或高於我們的觀點時，我們就會進行避險；我們不是要抓最高點，只是要鎖定價值，接著就必須把執行做好。

Jim, do you want to add? You bet, Curt.

Jim，你要補充嗎？當然，Curt。

Shar, the way Curt described it, it looks like a unique opportunity and we're taking advantage of it because we have typically seen tremendous backwardation. So we'll see prompt months and maybe a year show up, but then the outer periods have not responded. I think on Slide 10, where you saw the curve moves, particularly gas driven, but also the sparks that have driven considerably higher in the '23, '24 period, we decided to layer on more hedges. That's what gave us the confidence to talk about '23 to '25.

Shar，正如Curt所描述的，這看起來是個獨特的機會，我們正在加以利用，因為過去我們通常看到非常明顯的逆價差。因此你會看到近月（prompt months）以及可能一年的合約有反應，但更遠期的期間往往沒有跟上。我想在第10頁投影片，你看到曲線的變動，特別是由天然氣帶動，但也包括火電價差（spark spreads）在2023、2024期間顯著走高，因此我們決定分批加碼避險。這也是我們有信心談2023到2025的原因。

As you know, we would normally talk about 2023 after the summer, and we would generally, and I cannot recall that we've ever spoken specifically with confidence 2 and 3 years out. But we're representing that in our materials today because we have hedged over 50% in total for that 3-year period a little bit more in the front in '23, a little bit less in '25. There's still a range around that, and that's the important thing. And that range can go higher. It could also go lower. We recognize that. And that's why we talk about that range as a midpoint.

如你所知，我們通常會在夏季之後才談2023年，而且一般而言——我想不起來我們曾經在兩到三年後的期間，還能如此有信心地具體談論。但我們今天在資料中呈現，是因為我們在這三年期間的總避險比例已超過50%，其中2023年偏多一些，2025年偏少一些。這中間仍有一個區間，而那才是重點。該區間可能更高，也可能更低；我們理解這點。因此我們才會把該區間的中位數拿來討論。

So there's a chance for that number to go down. We would put this in the range of potentially $500 million, $600 million to the downside, possibly that to the upside, and we think that's reasonable. And so giving you a sense of how much we've hedged and putting that out with all was important for investors because these opportunities, as Curt said, don't come around very often.

所以這個數字確實有下修的可能。我們會把下行幅度估在大約5億到6億美元，或上行也可能有類似幅度，我們認為這是合理的。因此，讓投資人了解我們避險的程度並把資訊攤開來很重要，因為如Curt所說，這種機會並不常見。

And Shar, look, we know you guys model. Everybody does. We want to give you some idea of this. But I think it's important to also note that I think the skews to the upside, especially given that commodity prices have moved up and that 3.5 to 3 7 range was a 4 29% vintage, and we've seen a pretty big move up this week alone. And so we're just trying to give you an idea, but the earnings power of this company for the next -- at least 3 years and beyond is significantly higher, and it's just the realities of the situation.

另外，Shar，我們知道你們會建模，大家都會。我們想讓你對此有些概念。但我也認為很重要的一點是，上行偏態（skew）更大，尤其是考量大宗商品價格已經上漲，而35億到37億美元的區間是以4月29日當時的水準為基準（4/29 vintage）；而且光是本週我們就看到相當大的上移。因此我們只是想提供你一個概念：這家公司未來——至少三年及更久——的獲利能力顯著更高，這就是現況所反映的現實。

And like I said, it's our job now to manage that because it's not without risk. But that's what we do, and we do it well. So that's -- this is a good news story, but we need to execute.

而且如我所說，現在管理這件事是我們的工作，因為這並非沒有風險。但這就是我們在做的事，而且我們做得很好。所以這——這是一個好消息的故事，但我們需要把它執行到位。

Got it. Got it. And as we think about sort of the potential for extra cash to come in the door versus your plans last fall, how does your, I guess, calculus shift at all? I mean at a high level, how would you maybe prioritize the incremental cash? Should we be thinking about returning to shareholders more delevering growth CapEx like Vistra Zero acceleration? And the reason why I'm asking this is, this is obviously in light of your view that the curves, the moves in the curves aren't really transitory, right?

了解。了解。那麼當我們思考相較於你們去年秋天的計畫，可能會有額外現金進帳的潛力時，你們的——我想——資本配置的盤算會有任何改變嗎？我是說在高層次上，你們可能會如何優先排序這些增量現金？我們應該把重點放在更多回饋股東、更多去槓桿、成長性資本支出（CapEx）像是加速 Vistra Zero 嗎？我之所以這樣問，是因為這顯然是基於你們的看法：曲線的變動、曲線上的移動並不是真的只是短暫的，對吧？

Look, I think it really doesn't change much. I mean, we still like the value proposition of buying our shares. And so -- but this -- you know this, it's a function of where you're trading at in terms of your share price. But if you said, okay, what would you do if you have a pile more cash today? I think we'd say, we'd buy back our shares. But we also want to maintain a strong balance sheet for sure. And we want to pay a healthy dividend. And the buyback our shares has helped us pay a healthy dividend and increase that over time for those -- the shareholders of record.

你看，我認為其實不會改變太多。我的意思是，我們仍然喜歡回購自家股票的價值主張。所以——但這——你知道的，這取決於你們股價目前的交易水準。但如果你說，好吧，如果你今天多了一大筆現金，你會怎麼做？我想我們會說，我們會回購股票。但我們也確實想維持強健的資產負債表。而且我們想支付健康的股利。回購股票也幫助我們支付健康的股利，並隨時間推升股利水準，讓那些——登記在冊的股東受益。

So I'm not sure that we would change that much. We've said that we would prefer not to use the cash flow from the core business on Vistra Zero to allow Vistra Zero to raise its own capital because we could get cost of active capital there and we still have a high free cash flow yield. And so that may not be the best place to put it.

所以我不確定我們會改變多少。我們也說過，我們傾向不要把核心業務的現金流用在 Vistra Zero 上，而是讓 Vistra Zero 自行籌資，因為那邊我們可以取得具競爭力的資本成本，而且我們仍然有很高的自由現金流殖利率。因此，把錢放在那裡可能不是最好的選擇。

So I think it's the real 3 primary capital allocation buckets that we've always talked about and share repurchases would continue to be strong on that list. But again, that's a function of where you're trading at any given time.

所以我認為，仍然是我們一直在談的三個主要資本配置桶（方向），而股票回購會繼續在清單上占很重要的位置。但同樣地，這取決於你在任何特定時間點的交易價位。

The next question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Michael Sullivan。

Good morning. Curt, congrats and all the best. And Jim, congrats to you as well and good luck here. Exciting times. Yes, maybe just wanted to start and just with a quick clarification. The $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion range you gave, is that true in each individual year? Or is that an average over the '23 to 25?

早安。Curt，恭喜你，並祝一切順利。Jim，也恭喜你，祝你接下來好運。令人振奮的時刻。是的，我想先從一個快速釐清開始。你們給的 35 億到 37 億美元區間，是每一個單獨年度都成立嗎？還是 2023 到 2025 年的平均值？

Jim, do you want to take that?

Jim，你要回答嗎？

Yes. So Michael, it is. First of all, it is a range that applies to all 3 years, okay? So we see all 3 years within that range. We didn't want to put out individual year guidance and individual year hedge percentages at this point because this is moving -- We've taken advantage of a lot of the hedging opportunities that the month of April provided us where we really started to see this move.

好的。Michael，是的。首先，這是一個適用於三個年度的區間，好嗎？也就是說，我們看到這三年都會落在這個區間內。我們此刻不想提供逐年指引以及逐年的避險比例，因為這正在變動——我們已經把握了四月份提供的許多避險機會，當時我們確實開始看到這個走勢的變化。

But we're pretty flat over that 3-year period because we have a little bit more hedges on at the beginning when the move started in the near term and a little bit more open to the out even though they're still backwardation, the captured value ends up being pretty similar across that 3-year period.

但在這三年期間我們大致是持平的，因為在走勢剛開始、較近的期間，我們做了多一點避險；而在更遠期我們留了多一點敞口，儘管仍然是逆價差（backwardation），但最終所鎖定的價值在這三年期間其實相當接近。

Okay. That's super helpful color. And then maybe just on the liquidity side, Jim, if you could give us an update there on some of the steps you're taking. I think there was a revolver update yesterday and just as things continue to evolve here? And it sounds like you expect things to get increasingly more volatile. Just how you're thinking about that and what are some of the steps you can take to manage that liquidity? Just more color there would be helpful.

好的。這些補充說明非常有幫助。接著可能想問流動性方面，Jim，如果你能更新一下你們正在採取的一些步驟。我想昨天有一個循環信貸（revolver）的更新，且隨著情勢持續演變？而且聽起來你們預期波動會越來越大。你們如何看待這件事，以及有哪些步驟可以用來管理流動性？如果能多給一些說明會很有幫助。

You bet. Yes. And Curt emphasized liquidity in his remarks, and it is front and center for us being able to capture this opportunity and make sure that as we continue to hedge because we'd like to do that, we'd like to continue to put more hedges on at these levels that we have adequate liquidity.

當然可以。是的。Curt 在他的談話中強調了流動性，這對我們而言是首要重點，因為要能把握這個機會並確保我們能持續避險——我們確實想這麼做，我們希望在目前這些水準繼續增加避險部位——就必須有足夠的流動性。

So you saw us increase the commodity-linked revolver so that we have $2.1 billion of available liquidity as of yesterday. That is very helpful in managing the hedge levels that we already have put on. We also are looking to do some additional raise and work with other counter-parties in a more credit efficient way, which we can do with some of our first lien opportunities to hedge with parties, and we do that already, but we expect to increase that level of activity.

所以你們看到我們提高了與商品連動的循環信貸額度，使得截至昨天我們有 21 億美元的可用流動性。這對於管理我們已經建立的避險水位非常有幫助。我們也在評估進一步籌措資金，並以更具信用效率的方式與其他交易對手合作；我們可以利用一些第一順位擔保（first lien）的機會，與對手方進行避險。我們本來就有在做，但我們預期會提高這類活動的程度。

And so our view is that did now is the time to make sure we have ample liquidity because we want to not only hedge more, we want to be able to withstand any further moves because the goal here is all this liquidity comes back to us, right? It all comes back as we operate and deliver the power through the various calendar years. And so it's relatively cost effective for us to load up on even additional liquidity to make sure we can hedge more because we know that this cash does return and just make sure that we have the line of sight and continue to bring the range of outcomes in the out years even tighter.

因此我們的看法是，現在正是確保我們有充足流動性的時候，因為我們不僅想增加避險，也希望能承受任何進一步的價格變動；因為這裡的目標是，這些流動性最終都會回到我們這裡，對吧？當我們在各個曆年期間營運並交付電力時，這些資金都會回流。因此，對我們而言，為了確保能增加避險、也確保我們有清楚的可視性，並在更遠期年度把結果區間收得更緊，去配置甚至更多的流動性，其成本相對是划算的。

And I think, as Curt noted, I think the midpoint of this range is skewed to the upside. I think the midpoint can continue to move up, and we can give you that confidence as we continue to put more hedges on. But we've had great access to liquidity. All of our partners that have worked with us have been very helpful because they understand this is the right-way risk as these hedges continue to be put on, and we have to post more. They know the franchise value of the enterprise is continuing to grow. That's a great place to be, and this is going to be something that we'll continue to actively manage.

而且我認為，如 Curt 所提，我覺得這個區間的中點是偏向上行的。我認為中點還可以繼續上移，而隨著我們持續增加避險部位，我們也能給你們這樣的信心。不過我們取得流動性的管道一直很順暢。所有與我們合作的夥伴都非常支持，因為他們理解，當這些避險持續建立、我們需要追加更多保證金時，這是「順勢風險」（right-way risk）。他們知道企業的平台價值正在持續成長。這是一個很好的位置，而這也會是我們將持續主動管理的事項。

Michael, if I can just add something too. The nice thing about adding this liquidity is that we can keep it outstanding and keep this on our balance sheet as long as it's necessary. So if we continue in a high-priced volatile market, we can continue to extend this liquidity and lock in value. And the annual cost of that liquidity relative to the value locked in, as Jim just said, it is very low. So it's a compelling value proposition.

Michael，如果我也補充一下。增加這些流動性的好處在於，只要有需要，我們就可以讓它維持在外並留在資產負債表上。所以如果我們持續處於高價且波動的市場，我們就能持續延展這些流動性並鎖定價值。而這些流動性的年度成本，相對於所鎖定的價值——如 Jim 剛才所說——是非常低的。所以這是一個很有吸引力的價值主張。

If we were to come back to a more recent historical normal level of commodity prices, which I'm not sure will happen. But let's just say that we did. We can always then reoptimize the balance sheet and shrink the amount of liquidity that we have to the volatility in the marketplace at that given time. So we can flex it. And because it's right-way risk and also because we tandem hedge all the risks, not just the commodity risk, but also basis and fuel, we have a high -- and we can perform very -- at a high level with our generation. We have a high confidence of achieving the cash flow levels that the hedges bring to us, which obviously satisfied the cost of the added liquidity. So -- and this is -- right now and this works for us.

如果我們回到較接近近期歷史常態的商品價格水準——我不確定是否會發生。但假設真的發生了——我們也可以再重新最佳化資產負債表，並把我們持有的流動性規模縮小到當時市場波動所需要的程度。所以我們可以彈性調整。而且因為這是順勢風險，也因為我們是成套地對沖所有風險，不只是商品風險，還包括基差與燃料，我們對於以很高水準運轉我們的發電資產也很有信心。我們非常有把握達成避險所帶來的現金流量水準，而這顯然足以支應新增流動性的成本。所以——而這——在目前對我們是有效的。

Liquidity is very important to us. We have access to it, and it allows us to go out and lock that significant value in for years to come, and that's a rare opportunity for companies to have.

流動性對我們非常重要。我們有取得流動性的管道，而這讓我們能夠走出去，為未來多年鎖定那個顯著的價值；這是公司很少能擁有的機會。

The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

And congratulations to both of you, but very well-earned retirement here. Leaving on a high note, as we say. I suppose just coming back to this quasi guidance, if you will. Just to reconcile that $1 billion number you threw out in the comments versus the $3.6 billion midpoint that you just talked about a second ago. Just the $1 billion, that was relative to what? Just to make sure I understood that appropriately.

也恭喜你們兩位，這次退休確實實至名歸。我們常說是以高點告別。我想回到這個「類指引」（quasi guidance）上。如果可以的話，想把你們在評論中提到的 10 億美元數字，和你們剛剛提到的 36 億美元中點做個對照釐清。那個 10 億美元，是相對於什麼而言的？只是想確認我理解得正確。

You mean when I say was $1 billion of value that we were adding, you're talking about what I said in my remarks?

你的意思是，當我說我們增加了10億美元的價值時，你是在問我在發言稿裡提到的那段嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Jim, you can answer that because you know it, too. So go ahead.

Jim，你可以回答這個，因為你也知道。所以你來吧。

Yes, yes. Sure. Julien, that was in the remarks we said through 2025, nearly $1 billion. That was a cumulative minimum value increase from '23, '24, '25 of $1 billion. So think about that as $333 million a year minimum, so that gets to our $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, which is higher than where anyone was really thinking we were ahead of this commodity moves where they -- we said we're a $3-plus billion business. Some would say you're a $3.2 billion, $3.3 billion kind of business. So we're taking that delta and saying assume $300-plus million a year, that gets you to this midpoint of the range we're talking about for 3 years is $1 billion.

是的，是的。當然。Julien，那是在發言稿裡我們說到截至2025年，接近10億美元。那是從'23、'24、'25累計的最低增值10億美元。所以可以把它想成每年至少3.33億美元，這樣就能到我們所說的35億到37億美元，這比任何人原本以為的都要高，尤其是在這些大宗商品變動之前——我們說我們是一個超過30億美元的業務。有些人會說你們大概是32億、33億美元規模的業務。所以我們拿那個差額，並假設每年3億多美元，三年區間的中點加總就是我們在說的10億美元。

And Jim, can I add that we debated on this one, Julien, because if you take the $3 billion plus that we always say, that number is close to $2 billion. If you take sort of the $3.3 billion that we sort of, I guess, gave a wink and a nod to for 2023 previously, then that number is closer to a little over $1 billion.

而且Jim，我可以補充一下，Julien，我們在這點上有過討論，因為如果你用我們一直說的「30億美元以上」作為基準，那個數字其實接近20億美元。如果你用我們之前對2023年大概、我想算是暗示過的33億美元作為基準，那個數字就更接近略高於10億美元。

So the reality is it's a significant amount above -- depending on what you want to use as your baseline. And we looked at consensus, too. And that number is -- no matter how you slice it, it was at least over $1 billion. And so that's why we felt comfortable saying that. And those 2, we tried to reconcile those, what Jim said, the $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion, and what I said. But no matter how you slice it, it's $1 billion or more. And you can argue with the $3 billion-plus number, it's closer to $2 billion.

所以現實是，這是一個顯著高於——取決於你想用什麼作為基準。我們也看了市場一致預期。無論你怎麼切分，那個數字至少都超過10億美元。所以我們才覺得可以很有把握地這麼說。我們也試著把這兩個說法對齊：Jim說的35億到37億美元，以及我說的那個。但不管怎麼算，都是10億美元或更多。而如果用「30億美元以上」那個數字來看，就更接近20億美元。

Yes. No, no, no, indeed. Both numbers are conservative. I got you. I hear you. Well, listen, I mean, just to keep that focus going on the commodity front, what are you seeing with your coal counter-parties and your logistics counter-parties here? I mean, are the PRB suppliers finally ramping up? And to that end, how have you made arrangements and what are you seeing with logistics? And ultimately, what's priced into that $3.6 billion, for instance, on delivered PRB and your lignite, et cetera?

是的。不，不，不，確實。兩個數字都很保守。我懂了。我聽明白了。那麼，為了把焦點放在大宗商品這一塊，你們在煤炭交易對手以及物流交易對手方面看到什麼情況？我的意思是，PRB供應商終於開始提升產量了嗎？另外，你們是如何做安排的、物流方面你們看到什麼？最終，例如在36億美元裡，對於到廠交付的PRB以及你們的褐煤等，價格假設是什麼？

Jim, you can talk. Yes, go ahead, Jim.

Jim，你可以說。是的，你來吧，Jim。

Julien, I'll start and Curt, thank you for that. We have factored in that even in 2022, it has been tough for some of the PRB suppliers to fully ramp up. As you would expect, as gas continues to move up, everyone is trying to get more coal and that's logical, but it is difficult for some of these coal supply chains to respond. And some of it is simply hiring and having enough people to actually operate the equipment and some of it is weather driven. There's been storms that have actually disrupted some supplies.

Julien，我先說，Curt，謝謝你提這個。我們已經把這點納入考量：即使在2022年，一些PRB供應商要完全提升產能也一直很困難。正如你所預期的，隨著天然氣價格持續上升，每個人都想要更多煤，這很合理，但對某些煤炭供應鏈來說要做出反應並不容易。有一部分原因只是招工問題——需要足夠的人手實際操作設備；也有一部分是天氣因素。有些風暴確實中斷了部分供應。

We factored that into how we think about 2022, and we have factored in the ranges we just gave you. So we are not assuming perfect execution on the coal supply chain. We do think, over time, this will get resolved either because there will be a more fulsome response to the supply chain maybe even outside of the 2022 timeframe before that happens, or gas may actually, at some point, dissipate and not put quite as much strain on the system. But it has been a challenge more on the PRB and the train set as so with the barge coal that we have access to for our Ohio plants, but that is something we took into consideration when we provided these numbers. Go ahead, Curt.

我們在思考2022年時已把這些因素納入，也把它納入剛剛給你的區間裡。所以我們並沒有假設煤炭供應鏈能完美執行。我們確實認為，隨著時間推移，這會被解決：要嘛供應鏈會有更全面的回應——甚至可能要到2022年之後才會發生；要嘛天然氣價格在某個時點可能會回落，不再對系統造成那麼大的壓力。但目前挑戰主要在PRB以及列車編組（train set），同樣也包括我們在俄亥俄電廠可取得的駁船煤。不過，這些都是我們在提供這些數字時已經考慮進去的。Curt，你接著說。

Well, I'll add to this, Julien, is that we have good relationships with the BN also with KCS. And then down with Coleto Creek, it's UP. And we have good relationships. We have long-term historical relationships. And I think we're going to continue to work, and I am and so is Jim with the leadership of those companies to try to help us through this, especially given that we got a summer coming up in Texas.

我再補充一下，Julien，我們和BN以及KCS都有良好關係。然後在Coleto Creek那邊是UP。我們的關係都很好，而且是長期的歷史合作關係。我認為我們會持續合作，我也會，Jim也會，和那些公司的領導層一起努力，幫助我們度過這段時間，尤其是德州即將進入夏季。

We want to make sure we have adequate access to coal. But it is -- they're struggling like everybody else on the supply chain side and having enough labor. I can't remember the number, Jim, but it's like 6 to 9 months to train new people on the railroad. So it takes a long time to get new people -- fresh people in and get them trained. So this is an issue.

我們想確保有足夠的煤炭取得。但他們——跟供應鏈上的其他人一樣——在勞動力不足方面很吃力。我記不清數字了，Jim，但大概需要6到9個月才能把鐵路的新員工訓練好。所以要引進新人、把他們訓練到位需要很長時間。這確實是個問題。

The good news is we've been conserving where we can. We're going into the summer with a decent pile. We'd like to have more, and we'd like to see the train sets get picked up. I think we'll be able to work that out, and this is something you just have to work together with the railroads on.

好消息是，我們能省則省。我們帶著還算不錯的庫存堆量進入夏季。我們希望能更多，也希望列車編組能恢復。我認為我們能把這件事協調好，這就是必須和鐵路公司一起合作解決的事情。

Got it. Okay. But you're pricing in kind of current strip pricing or...

了解。好。但你們的定價假設是用目前的期貨曲線（strip pricing）還是……？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自Vertical Research Partners的Jonathan Arnold。

And congratulations to you both. Just a quick one on given this big shift in the market, does it change any of your thoughts around planned retirements that you have scheduled -- just curious there.

也恭喜你們兩位。簡單問一個：鑑於市場出現這麼大的轉變，這會改變你們對已排定的退役計畫的任何想法嗎——只是好奇。

So some of our retirements are already scheduled because they are part of agreements that we have I'd say there are some that are not. And certainly, we're going to look at the whole suite of things that we look at when we decide whether we retire a plant.

我們的一些退役已經排定，因為它們是我們所簽協議的一部分；我想也有一些不是。當然，我們會檢視我們在決定是否讓電廠退役時會考量的整套因素。

But I think the other thing we have to balance is markets are tight, and we're part of the reliability of markets and also the affordability of our product as well as emissions. And so I could see a situation where maybe we would extend some of the coal plants. But we've also agreed to shut those down as part of the coal combustion residual rule at EPA. And so a lot to take into account.

但我認為我們還需要平衡的是：市場供需很緊，而我們是市場可靠性的一部分，同時也要兼顧我們產品的可負擔性以及排放。因此，我可以想像某些情況下，我們可能會延長一些燃煤電廠的運轉。但我們也已同意，作為EPA煤燃燒殘渣（CCR）規則的一部分，要把那些關掉。所以要考量的事情很多。

But could we say maybe go from '25 to '26 for something? We might. And I think we just have to consider what does the market look like, what's the need of the power plant. And it's not a foregone conclusion that all these are economic even with these prices. Having said that, we're economic people, but we're also about trying to help with reliability in the markets that we serve and keeping prices affordable. So we'll have to balance all that and see what that brings us. We haven't made any definitive decisions on any of those other coal plants other than the ones that we have committed to retiring as part of some sort of a commitment.

但我們能不能說，例如把某些從'25延到'26？有可能。我認為我們必須考慮市場長什麼樣、電廠的需求是什麼。而且即便在這些價格下，也不能想當然耳地認為所有這些都具經濟性。話雖如此，我們是以經濟性為導向的人，但我們也致力於協助我們所服務市場的可靠性，並讓價格維持可負擔。因此我們必須在這些之間取得平衡，看看最後會帶來什麼結果。除了那些我們已承諾、作為某種承諾的一部分而要退役的燃煤電廠之外，其他燃煤電廠我們尚未做出任何明確決定。

Okay. I mean you've not assumed anything like that in this outlook, I imagine?

好的。我想你們在這份展望裡應該沒有假設這類情況，對吧？

That's right. That's correct. We have not.

沒錯。正確。我們沒有。

Okay. And then could I just -- just a couple of things on liquidity. Could you maybe update for us just what the current numbers are relative to the ones you put in the release for the end of March, given the April moves? I think you said you now have 2 available rather than one, but I want to make sure net of moves in commodity, but I just want to make sure we got that.

好的。然後我能不能——再問幾點關於流動性。鑑於4月的變動，你們能否更新一下目前的數字，相對於你們在新聞稿中所提供的3月底數字？我想你們說現在有2個可用的，而不是1個，但我想確認一下，扣除大宗商品變動的影響後，我只是想確保我們理解正確。

Jim will take that.

Jim會回答這個。

Yes, we had $3.1 billion available as of the end of March. We now have $2.1 billion available, and we added $1 billion to the commodity rate revolving facility for capacity because of the moves, particularly in April. And we wanted to take advantage of hedging more in the month of April. So we increased our capacity some, but we still have the ability -- we still have the $2.1 billion available to us after all postings that we've made to date.

是的，截至3月底我們有31億美元可用額度。目前我們有21億美元可用，並且因為市場波動（特別是在4月），我們在商品價格循環信貸額度（commodity rate revolving facility）中新增了10億美元的額度以提升容量。我們也希望在4月把握機會增加避險。因此我們提高了一些額度上限，但在截至目前已完成的所有保證金/抵押品繳交之後，我們仍然有21億美元可供使用。

Okay. And the implication of your prior comments is that you feel confident you could flex more if you needed to?

好的。那你先前評論的含意是，你有信心如果需要的話，還可以再提高彈性（flex）？

Correct. That's correct.

正確。沒錯。

And just a different kind of liquidity question. But as you out in the out years, in the past, it's been challenging to find liquidity in power. But maybe gas has been more liquid. Can any -- can you give us any sense of is that changing? Or how are you -- what's the nature of the hedges you're able to put on that far out?

再問一個不同類型的流動性問題。往更遠的年度看，過去在電力市場要找到流動性一直很具挑戰，但天然氣可能更具流動性。你能否——能否給我們一些感覺，這種情況是否正在改變？或者你們——你們能在那麼遠的期間做的避險，其性質是什麼？

It has been changing, Jonathan. I think both the sell side as well as the buy side has -- see this as either opportunity or potentially risk if they don't buy long term. So we've been able to hedge both gas and power out through '25 with fairly deep markets compared to what we've seen historically.

確實正在改變，Jonathan。我認為賣方以及買方都——把這視為機會，或如果不做長期採購就可能是風險。因此，相較於我們歷史上看到的情況，我們已能在相當深的市場中，將天然氣與電力的避險一路做到2025年。

And I think that is something that has occurred as people are thinking this is not temporary. We've generally seen, as we talked earlier, things move up in the very short run, and then you see some assumed corrections. But you don't even see that with the NYMEX curve now for the next 10 years. So I think folks are seeing that the complex is moving up. They see difficulty in supply chains. They see difficulties with some of the environmental restrictions that are happening. So I think folks are concerned about where this whole commodity complex could go. So there has been folks on the other side willing to make longer-dated purchases that we haven't seen the same depth in prior markets.

而且我認為，這是因為大家開始認為這不是暫時性的。一般來說，如同我們先前談到的，通常會看到短期大幅上升，然後市場會假設出現一些修正。但你現在甚至在未來10年的NYMEX曲線上都看不到那種修正。所以我認為大家看到整個商品複合體（commodity complex）正在上移；他們看到供應鏈的困難；也看到一些正在發生的環境限制所帶來的困難。因此我認為大家擔心整個商品複合體可能走向何處。於是，市場另一端出現了願意做更長天期採購的人，這是我們在以往市場中沒有看到同樣深度的。

The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.

下一個問題來自Evercore的Durgesh Chopra。

Maybe just Curt and/or Jim, maybe can you talk to the first quarter 2022 EBITDA? I appreciate sort of the profiling has changed post Uri. But just maybe a little bit color there.

也許請Curt和/或Jim談談2022年第一季的EBITDA？我理解在Uri之後，獲利分布（profiling）已經改變了，但還是希望能多一些說明。

And then when you talk about margin opportunity or greater margin opportunity rest of the year, I get, I mean, obviously, there's upside from the commodity standpoint or open positions. But is there something on the retail side in terms of profiling or expenses that we're missing? So any color there is appreciated.

另外，當你們談到今年剩餘期間有「保證金機會」或「更大的保證金機會」時，我理解——我的意思是，顯然商品面或未平倉部位有上行空間。但在零售端，是否有一些關於獲利分布或費用的因素是我們漏掉的？所以若能補充一些細節會很感謝。

Sure. Yes, Durgesh, what ended up happening post Uri is the first quarter cost structure shifted up remarkably as people started to conclude that the winter has potentially even if not more volatility built into it than the summer.

當然。是的，Durgesh，Uri之後實際發生的是，隨著大家開始認為冬季的波動性可能不亞於、甚至高於夏季，第一季的成本結構顯著上移。

ERCOT, as you know, has always been a summer focus. People have always talked about peak capacity and peak demand in the summer. Uri shifted that. And now we saw the first quarter part of the curve move up considerably. Retail has to buy that, but they generally flat price their customers. We don't have a lot of indexed-based structures with particularly residential customers.

如你所知，ERCOT一向以夏季為重點。大家總是在談夏季的尖峰容量與尖峰需求。Uri改變了這點。現在我們看到第一季那一段的遠期曲線大幅上移。零售端必須去買進那段成本，但我們通常是以固定價格（flat price）賣給客戶。我們沒有太多以指數連動為基礎的結構，特別是住宅客戶。

So when we flat price, it basically means that the margins get squeezed considerably still positive but definitely lower in the first quarter than historical patterns. What that means is it really opens up the margins in 2Q and 4Q relative to what we have seen in the past.

所以當我們用固定價格時，基本上代表利潤率會被明顯擠壓——仍然是正的，但第一季確實比歷史型態低。這也就意味著，相較於過去，我們在第二季與第四季的利潤率空間會更大。

So when Curt was alluding to we have greater earnings power in the back part of the year, that's not assuming anything with the open position. That's just simply if you were to model retail margins on a monthly basis, you would have historically seen a better first quarter margin than we're seeing at the moment because of the shape of the 12-month curve.

因此，當Curt提到我們在下半年有更強的獲利能力時，那並不是假設未平倉部位帶來任何貢獻。那只是單純地說，如果你按月去建模零售利潤率，過去你通常會看到第一季的利潤率比我們目前看到的更好，而這是因為12個月遠期曲線的形狀所致。

Got it. Okay. So just to be clear, it's the retail margins that we're talking about, the profiling of the retail margins Q1 and then rest of the year, right? I mean we're expecting to pick up.

了解。好的。那我確認一下，我們談的是零售利潤率——第一季的零售利潤率分布，然後今年其餘期間會回升，對嗎？也就是我們預期會改善。

That's correct. Yes.

沒錯。是的。

I mean if I can add, though, I mean, look, the prices have moved up, too, though, on the wholesale side. But what we were talking about specifically about what we were seeing, and we actually had factored in into our guidance was what Jim talked about, which was that shift in retail margins.

我補充一下——我的意思是，你看，批發端的價格也上升了。但我們剛才特別在談、而且我們其實已經納入指引（guidance）的是Jim提到的那件事，也就是零售利潤率的移轉。

And we don't -- you know that guys, this is a little bit disappointing is that we don't give quarterly guidance. And unfortunately, there is a consensus out there, which is generally built on kind of an assumption of the percentage of EBITDA of the annual, and the reality of the situation is that does move at times. And we tandem hedge. When we sell retail, we tandem hedge with wholesale. And we knew this -- this was in our guidance number all along. And we knew that we were going to be a little skinnier on the first quarter, but higher in the second and the fourth.

而且我們不——你們也知道，各位，這有點令人失望的是，我們不提供季度指引。不幸的是，市場上有一個共識，通常是基於一種假設：年度EBITDA按某個比例分配到各季；但現實是，這個分配有時會變動。我們採取「同步避險」（tandem hedge）：當我們賣出零售時，我們會用批發端同步做避險。我們一直都知道——這件事從頭到尾都在我們的指引數字裡。我們也知道第一季會比較薄，但第二季與第四季會更高。

Now we've also seen them move up a little bit on the third because of wholesale pricing. We'll see if that comes to fruition. But that's just how things work, and we just want to be clear that we understood this phenomenon. And we don't -- we're not seeing it in the outer years, either. We think things will probably, at least over time, move back to more of a traditional split or shape of earnings. But it just happened in '22 just given the way that traded relative to the -- when we locked in retail.

現在我們也看到第三季因為批發定價而稍微上移。我們再看看是否會實現。但事情就是這樣運作的，我們只是想說清楚：我們理解這個現象。而且我們在更遠的年度也沒有看到同樣情況。我們認為，至少隨著時間推移，獲利的分配或形狀可能會回到比較傳統的拆分/曲線型態。但2022年之所以發生，是因為交易曲線的走勢——相對於我們鎖定零售價格的時點——就是那樣。

Got it. That's super helpful color. Just one quick one for me. On the topic of share repurchases, the latest guidance you have for '23 and beyond is, I believe, at least $1 billion a year, and right? And we're looking at sizable EBITDA cash flow upside, Curt, that you alluded to in your commentary and the EBITDA estimates going forward.

了解。這些補充非常有幫助。我再問一個很快的問題。關於庫藏股回購（share repurchases），你們最新對2023年及之後的指引，我相信是至少每年10億美元，對吧？而且我們看到相當可觀的EBITDA與現金流上行空間，Curt，你在評論中也提到，未來的EBITDA預估也是如此。

When should we expect sort of an update on the use of that excess cash that now you're seeing over 2023 and beyond? Is that sometime later this year? When should we expect an update on that in the use of the cash proceeds?

那麼，對於你們現在看到的2023年及之後的超額現金要如何使用，我們何時可以期待你們更新？會是在今年稍晚某個時間嗎？我們應該何時期待在現金運用/資金配置上有更新？

Yes. Well, Jim, I don't want to -- because I'm not going to be here after obvious one, but I would expect that just the way we've normally done is later this year, after we get through the summer and also, we've done some more hedging, my guess is we'll talk about at least about '23. And we'll see about '24 and '25.

是的。嗯，Jim，我不想——因為很明顯我之後就不在了——但我預期，按照我們一貫的做法，會在今年稍晚：等我們度過夏季，並且也做了更多避險之後，我猜我們至少會談到2023年。至於2024年和2025年，再看看。

No, I was going to say, Curt, I agree with that completely. I think we need to get through the summer. Let's look at the additional hedges that we anticipate putting on at these kind of levels. And obviously, we won't hedge all the way up, but we still think there's value to capture here.

不，我想說，Curt，我完全同意。我們需要先度過夏季。再看看我們預期在這樣的價格水準下要加做的避險。而且很顯然，我們不會一路全數避險到頂，但我們仍認為這裡有價值可以鎖定。

So we'll again, emphasis on liquidity. All this money will come back to us eventually, but we do want to preserve long-term value and take advantage. So I think it would be prudent for us to talk about that in the fall when we give the guidance for next year. That will be a good time for us to update our cash flow and our capital allocation assumptions for '23.

所以我們會再次強調流動性。這些資金最終都會回到我們這裡，但我們確實希望保留長期價值並把握機會。因此我認為，在秋季、也就是我們發布明年指引時來談會更審慎。那將是更新我們對2023年現金流與資本配置假設的好時點。

And the last question today will come from James Thalacker from BMO Capital.

今天最後一個問題來自BMO Capital的James Thalacker。

Congratulations, Curt, It's really been a pleasure. Just had 2 real quick questions. Just following up on Julien's coal question. I know you said your outlook reflects basically the current curves on coal pricing. But is that coal pricing based on an FOB basis? I know that the rails are also having some labor issues also on deliveries, and that could be impacting upward pressure on transport costs. So just wondering what you guys are seeing there.

恭喜你，Curt，真的很榮幸。只有兩個很快的問題。延續Julien關於煤炭的問題。我知道你說你們的展望基本反映目前煤價曲線。但那個煤價是以FOB（船上交貨）基礎計價嗎？我知道鐵路也在交付上有一些勞動力問題，這可能會推升運輸成本的上行壓力。所以想請教你們在這方面看到的情況。

Go ahead, Jim.

請說，Jim。

Yes. I was going to say, we have some long-dated transportation arrangements for our key facilities, James. So our issue has been less rail transport cost. It has been simply about quantity as it relates to PRB, getting all the quantity that our plants could consume in the higher kind of power price and natural gas price worlds. So we have been less exposed to the cost of transport. It's been for us a little bit more on the quantity side.

是的。我本來想說，James，我們針對關鍵設施有一些長期的運輸安排。所以我們面臨的問題比較不是鐵路運輸成本。主要是就 PRB 而言的數量問題，也就是在電價與天然氣價格較高的環境下，取得我們電廠能夠消耗的全部供應量。因此我們較少暴露在運輸成本上；對我們來說，更多是在數量面。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And just sticking along that same line. Do you think that some of the recent move in power could also be a reflection of gas plants being dispatched out of merit to preserve some of these coal stockpiles? Some of the more regulated (inaudible) we've talked to are down to like 20, 25 days as we move into summer. Just wondering if that could be contributing to the (inaudible) and the moves recently.

好的。很好。這很有幫助。再沿著同一條思路問一下。你覺得近期電力價格的上漲，是否也可能反映出為了保留一些煤炭庫存，燃氣機組被調度到不符合經濟排序（merit）的狀況？我們談過的一些受監管的（聽不清）目前庫存只剩大約 20、25 天，正要進入夏季。想請教這是否可能在近期對（聽不清）以及這些走勢有所貢獻。

Absolutely. In fact, I'm certain of it, that, that is affecting it because some people are -- they're holding on in the shoulder periods where the margin isn't that great on coal, they're backing off. Gas is having to come on at setting price. So yes, that interplay between gas and coal is going to continue until the coal can solve the issue.

絕對是。事實上，我很確定這正在影響，因為有些人在肩峰期（淡旺季交界）煤電利差不大的時候，他們會撐著、會退一步。天然氣就必須上來並成為定價機組。所以是的，天然氣與煤炭之間的這種互動會持續，直到煤炭把問題解決為止。

But yes, that definitely is having an impact on price.

但對，這確實正在影響價格。

Okay. Great. And then just the last question, and this is kind of -- I apologize for being greedy, and I know that we're only a week after the -- when you guys priced your upside of $1 billion through 2025. But obviously, prices have continued to kind of move up. Are you -- going back to that previous question, Curt and Jim, do you think that pricing will kind of hold in this level and that you feel good about kind of being able to lock in, let's say, $300 million across to 2025? Or do you think that we're kind of at a peak here, and we should really be sort of baking in any incremental upside from here?

好的。很好。最後一個問題，這有點——我先為我貪心道歉，而且我知道距離你們把到 2025 年為止的上行空間定價為 10 億美元才過一週。但顯然價格仍在持續上行。回到前一個問題，Curt 和 Jim，你們覺得價格會大致維持在這個水準，讓你們有把握能鎖定、比方說到 2025 年累計 3 億美元嗎？還是你們覺得現在有點接近高點，我們應該把從這裡開始的任何額外上行都當作增量來看、不要太依賴？

Well, [how] we handle it? Well, I'll just keep in mind, Jim, I'd like to hear what you have to say. I'll pull out my crystal ball here. Look, I think here's what I would say about it.

嗯，我們怎麼處理？嗯，我先說，Jim，我也想聽聽你的看法。我先拿出我的水晶球。你看，我想我會這麼說。

We would like to continue to hedge. And 70% to 80% would feel pretty good to us in those out-years right now, the ones that we've talked about. But the one thing we're just going to make sure, James, is that we also have the liquidity to go along with it.

我們希望繼續做避險。在那些較遠年度、也就是我們剛才談到的那些年份，目前對我們來說做到 70% 到 80% 的避險比例會感覺相當不錯。但有一點我們一定會確認，James，就是我們也要有相應的流動性來配合。

So we're just -- we're being prudent about it. But I would also say that whether it's going to stay at this level or go a little bit higher in the near term, things seem to be a fair amount of fear in the market around gas right now. How long that lasts, I don't know. But I do believe that we're going to stay at pretty strong levels on gas and power for a while. And we'll pick our shocks.

所以我們——我們會審慎行事。但我也會說，不論短期內是維持在這個水準，或再高一點，目前市場對天然氣似乎有相當程度的恐懼。這會持續多久，我不知道。但我確實相信，天然氣與電力會在一段時間內維持在相當強勁的水準。我們會挑選我們的時點。

But look, we see a real opportunity here. We have a sense of urgency as a company. This -- you don't get this opportunity very often. And so you can be rest assured that we're working urgently to lock in value at these kind of levels. And so I wouldn't be surprised to see us having increased our hedging between now and the next quarter when we talk to you again. I mean I just think that -- and we're not going to worry about whether it's at the peak or not. We just -- what we really care about is it a fundamentally good value for the company.

但你看，我們在這裡看到真正的機會。公司有一種急迫感——這種機會不常有。所以你可以放心，我們正以很高的急迫性在這樣的價位努力鎖定價值。因此我不會意外在我們下次季度再跟你們交流之前，我們的避險部位會增加。我的意思是——我們不會去糾結是不是高點。我們真正關心的是：這對公司而言是否是基本面上很好的價值。

Jim, you want to add to that?

Jim，你要補充嗎？

Yes. Curt, I agree completely. And I would just add that if prices stay where they are, and we continue to increase our hedge percentage, then we would see this range move up from where it is. That's what we meant by we were being conservative because we made this range off of the April 29 curve, James. And as you noted, they've moved up.

是的。Curt，我完全同意。我只想補充，如果價格維持在目前水準，而我們持續提高避險比例，那麼我們會看到這個區間從目前的位置往上移。這就是我們說我們比較保守的意思，因為我們是用 4 月 29 日的曲線來做出這個區間的，James。而如你所說，價格之後又上去了。

So if they stay where they are and we can continue to hedge into that, I would expect that you'd see this midpoint of this range move up.

所以如果它們維持在目前水準，而我們能持續在這樣的價格水準上增加避險，我預期你會看到這個區間的中點上移。

Okay. Great. Yes. Sorry about the greedy question, but I was just curious because it seems the biggest delimiter that you guys probably have, to your point, is really just maintaining adequate liquidity as well as probably just sourcing liquidity in the markets, especially as we probably get out past '24, '25, '26, I would think that it probably gets a little bit more thin out there, and so you might have to take some discount to sort of get those hedges on.

好的。很好。是的，抱歉問得貪心，但我只是好奇，因為看起來你們最大的限制因素，正如你們所說，可能就是維持充足的流動性，以及在市場上取得流動性。尤其是當我們走到 '24、'25、'26 之後，我想那邊的流動性可能會更薄，所以你們可能得打點折扣才能把那些避險做上去。

Yes.

是的。

We might see thing. But as Curt said, we're not trying to get every last nickel here. So there's plenty of room for us to lock this in and move the midpoints up. And as you said, liquidity is a key area of focus. We feel good about it, but we're going to keep actively working that so that we could capture this opportunity. Sorry to pick, Curt.

我們可能會看到那種情況。但如 Curt 所說，我們不是要把每一分錢都榨到最後。所以我們有很大的空間可以把這些鎖定下來，並把中點往上推。而且如你所說，流動性是我們關注的關鍵領域。我們對此感覺良好，但我們會持續積極地推進，讓我們能夠把握這個機會。抱歉插話了，Curt。

No, no, that's it. I think that's right.

不，不，就這樣。我覺得說得對。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Curt Morgan for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Curt Morgan，請他做任何結語。

Thanks again. It looks like we ran over time. Sorry about that. Great working with everybody. I'm hoping that I get to see people between now and August 1 and now that we're also getting to see each other. But enjoyed it and look forward to. You're in good hands with Jim and the company is in good shape as ever. So we're excited about the future. Thank you.

再次感謝。看起來我們超時了，抱歉。很高興與大家合作。我希望在現在到 8 月 1 日之間能見到各位，也很高興我們又能彼此見面了。很享受這次交流，也期待後續。你們有 Jim 在、公司也一如既往地狀況良好，所以我們對未來感到振奮。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。