Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Analytics Fourth Quarter 2017 Earning Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Lee Shavel. Mr. Shavel, you may go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Verisk Analytics 2017 年第四季財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。此時此刻，我謹將電話交給 Verisk 的財務長 Lee Shavel 先生，由他來致開幕詞和介紹。沙維爾先生，您可以繼續了。

Thank you, Heidi, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for the discussion of our fourth quarter 2017 financial results. With me on this call this morning are Scott Stephenson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer. Following comments by Scott, Mark and myself highlighting some key points about our financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions.

謝謝你，海蒂，大家早安。感謝您今天蒞臨本次會議，與我們共同探討2017年第四季的財務表現。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼執行長史考特‧史蒂芬森，以及營運長馬克‧安奎拉雷。在 Scott、Mark 和我分別就我們的財務表現發表了一些關鍵評論之後，我們將開放提問環節。

Unless stated otherwise, all results we discuss today will reflect continuing operations. All discussions of EBITDA reflect adjusted EBITDA, for which you can find a reconciliation in our press release. The earnings release referenced on this call, as well as the associated 10-K, can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC.

除非另有說明，我們今天討論的所有業績均反映的是持續經營業務。所有關於 EBITDA 的討論均反映的是調整後的 EBITDA，您可以在我們的新聞稿中找到相關調節表。本次電話會議中提到的收益報告以及相關的 10-K 表格，可以在我們網站 verisk.com 的投資者關係部分找到。獲利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中。

A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in.

本次通話的錄音將在我們的網站上保留 30 天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。

Finally, as set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect the future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings.

最後，正如今天發布的收益報告中更詳細闡述的那樣，我要提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含有關 Verisk 未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際表現可能與我們今天所作的評論有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的資訊已包含在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

Now I will turn the call over to Scott Stephenson.

現在我將把電話交給史考特史蒂芬森。

Thank you, and good morning. It's a real pleasure to welcome Lee to his first earnings call as Verisk's new CFO. Lee's experience and insight from his time as NASDAQ CFO are already contributing to developments at Verisk. One of the first jobs he and I agreed on was for him to do a listening tour of some of our major institutional shareholders to hear your candid feedback about your likes and dislikes where owning Verisk is concerned. This has been the healthy exercise we expected, and we believe your feedback will be expressed in our evolving policies and communication practices in the coming quarters. Lee has already been able to complete an annual budget cycle with us, and so he has quickly become grounded in the rudiments of our business.

謝謝，早安。非常高興歡迎 Lee 出席他擔任 Verisk 新任財務長的首次財報電話會議。Lee 在擔任納斯達克財務長期間累積的經驗和洞察力，已經為 Verisk 的發展做出了貢獻。我和他達成一致的第一項工作就是讓他走訪我們的一些主要機構股東，聽取你們對持有 Verisk 股份的喜好和厭惡的坦誠反饋。這正是我們所期待的良好實踐，我們相信您的回饋將在未來幾季體現在我們不斷改進的政策和溝通方式中。Lee已經能夠和我們一起完成一個年度預算週期，因此他很快就掌握了我們業務的基本知識。

As we described in our recent Investor Day, Verisk advances by achieving strong levels of organic revenue growth, and the primary driver of high-quality organic revenue is the sale of multiyear subscriptions. A multiyear subscription is the best demonstration that our solutions have moved from nice to have to must-have. Over the last 90 days, there have been several encouraging developments, to name 3: First, Argus acquired a large multiyear subscription agreement along with the associated data rights with the only major credit card issuer in the English-speaking world that was not a customer. Second, WoodMac saw good progress in the number and value of subscription agreements signed. And third, in the insurance vertical, against a backdrop of many contract signings, we had 3 companies choose to focus exclusively on our catastrophe models and saw 2 other companies make an exclusive commitment to our Geomni program of imagery capture and analysis. But perhaps most important of all, we have the chance to see the value of our industry standard solutions tested in the context of the merger of 2 carriers and are very pleased with the degree to which our value and subscription price points stood the test as we finalized that new agreement.

正如我們在最近的投資者日上所描述的那樣，Verisk 透過實現強勁的內生收入成長而取得進步，而高品質內生收入的主要驅動力是多年訂閱的銷售。多年訂閱服務最能證明我們的解決方案已經從錦上添花變成不可或缺。在過去的 90 天裡，出現了一些令人鼓舞的進展，例如：首先，Argus 與英語世界唯一一家非其客戶的主要信用卡發行商簽訂了多年期的大額訂閱協議，並獲得了相關的數據權利。其次，伍德麥肯錫在簽署的訂閱協議的數量和價值方面取得了良好進展。第三，在保險領域，在簽訂大量合約的背景下，有 3 家公司選擇專注於我們的災害模型，另有 2 家公司則專門致力於我們的 Geomni 影像擷取和分析計畫。但或許最重要的是，我們有機會在兩家運營商合併的背景下檢驗我們行業標準解決方案的價值，並且非常高興地看到，在我們最終敲定新協議的過程中，我們的價值和訂閱價格點經受住了考驗。

Subscriptions, of course, can cut both ways. When they are lost, it takes even more sales success to compensate and grow. In 2017, we had such conditions at work at Argus, where 2 government and 1 legacy subscription agreement rolled off with a reduction of about $11 million in annual revenue. As we assess our business into 2018, we observed the following across our several thousand customers: We see no material risk at this time of a lost customer relationship in the insurance and financial services verticals. And in energy, 2 accounts that produced subscription revenue in '17 will be combined into one as the result of a merger with relatively immaterial impacts. The substantial majority of our customer relationships are showing year-over-year increases in revenue related primarily to the adoption of more of our product suite. We are aware of only 2 accounts, 1 in financial services and 1 in energy, where we expect year-over-year revenues to be down materially in 2018. In the financial services example, this is due to the phenomenon we have previously described, where first year revenues spike due to implementation, thereafter followed by a steady but lower level of high-quality subscription revenue. In the case of energy, the customer no longer exists due to merger.

當然，訂閱模式有利有弊。當客戶流失時，需要更大的銷售成功才能彌補損失並實現成長。2017 年，我們在 Argus 也遇到了類似的情況，2 項政府訂閱協議和 1 項傳統訂閱協議到期，導致年收入減少了約 1,100 萬美元。在評估我們 2018 年的業務時，我們觀察到，在我們數千名客戶中，目前沒有出現保險和金融服務領域客戶關係流失的重大風險。在能源領域，2017 年產生訂閱收入的兩個帳戶將合併為一個帳戶，合併的結果對帳戶的影響相對較小。我們絕大多數客戶關係都實現了同比收入成長，這主要與客戶採用了我們更多的產品組合有關。我們只知道有 2 個帳戶，一個在金融服務領域，一個在能源領域，我們預期這兩個帳戶在 2018 年的年收入將大幅下降。以金融服務為例，這是由於我們之前描述的現象造成的，即第一年的收入由於實施而激增，之後會保持穩定但較低的高品質訂閱收入水平。以能源產業為例，由於合併，客戶已不復存在。

Our industry-standard solutions will show growth in 2018, but at a slightly lower rate than in '17. Because of general softness in the insurance environment and to preserve our cross-sell opportunities, we deliberately moderated growth for '18 to a modest degree. However, we see hardening in the market, and we expect that in '19 we will be at or above the growth rate of '17.

我們的產業標準解決方案在 2018 年將實現成長，但成長速度將略低於 2017 年。由於保險市場整體疲軟，為了維持交叉銷售機會，我們特意將 2018 年的成長控制在適度範圍內。然而，我們看到市場趨於疲軟，預計 2019 年的成長率將達到或超過 2017 年的成長率。

WoodMac growth continues to move to the positive. In '18, the growth will relate primarily to cross-selling and the expansion of exciting product sets, including subsurface analytics, renewable energy sources and chemicals. We are still minimizing price increases in '18 in support of cross-selling opportunities, but expect the '19 and beyond to make more use of pricing in our overall growth mix.

伍德麥肯茲的成長持續向好。2018 年的成長將主要與交叉銷售和令人興奮的產品系列的擴展有關，包括地下分析、再生能源和化學品。為了支持交叉銷售機會，我們 2018 年仍將盡量減少價格上漲，但預計 2019 年及以後將在我們的整體成長組合中更多地利用價格因素。

One of the best leading indicators of our organic revenue growth is the number and quality of meetings we had with senior decision makers at our customers, in which we explore new opportunities for value creation. In that context, it is encouraging that in the last 90 days, we, on 3 occasions, had company CEOs ask to bring themselves and their senior teams to our offices to observe Verisk's InsureTech and jointly develop new or bespoke solutions.

我們有機收入成長的最佳領先指標之一是我們與客戶高級決策者舉行的會議的數量和質量，在這些會議中，我們探索創造價值的新機會。在此背景下，令人鼓舞的是，在過去的 90 天裡，我們曾 3 次收到公司 CEO 的請求，希望他們攜高級團隊到我們辦公室參觀 Verisk 的保險科技，並共同開發新的或客製化的解決方案。

Another leading indicator that has meaning for me is our success in winning business with the newer entrants into the markets we serve. For example, the world is alive with interest in the InsureTech space. Of the 8 leading InsureTech firms founded in '16 and '17 that operate as risk-bearing or risk-managing entities, 6 of them are currently customers of Verisk. I take that as evidence of the freshness of our value proposition.

對我而言，另一個重要的領先指標是我們能否成功贏得我們所服務市場中新進者的業務。例如，全世界都對保險科技領域充滿興趣。在 2016 年和 2017 年成立的 8 家領先的保險科技公司中，有 6 家目前是 Verisk 的客戶，這些公司作為風險承擔實體或風險管理實體運作。我認為這證明了我們的價值主張是新穎的。

We're busy at work integrating the companies we acquired in 2017. The work of integration have 3 different flavors at this moment: First, we acquired 7 regional image capture companies with the intent to merge them into one integrated national entity. Success in this endeavor is really entirely a function of integration since this is core to the value proposition. I'm pleased with our progress here. At the end of last year, with all the extreme weather events, the flexibility and integration of our operations was tested. And I was pleased to see that the quality and responsiveness of our image capture, which is driven by the integration of our platform, permitted us to image Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria with such speed and precision that we unlocked business with mortgage lenders who were not previously customers.

我們正忙於整合 2017 年收購的公司。目前整合工作有 3 種不同的形式：首先，我們收購了 7 家區域影像擷取公司，目的是將它們合併成一個一體化的全國性實體。這項工作的成功完全取決於整合，因為這是價值主張的核心。我對我們在這裡取得的進展感到滿意。去年年底，由於極端天氣事件頻繁，我們營運的靈活性和整合性受到了考驗。我很高興地看到，由於我們平台的整合，我們的圖像採集品質和響應速度，使我們能夠以如此快的速度和精度拍攝颶風瑪麗亞過後的波多黎各，從而與以前並非我們的客戶的抵押貸款機構建立了業務聯繫。

At the other end of the spectrum, PowerAdvocate and Sequel are relatively mature organizations, where in addition to financial and HR integration, their primary work is to link their platforms to those elsewhere in Verisk. Specifically, PowerAdvocate to WoodMac oil and gas analytics and Sequel to AIR's Touchstone modeling platform. Teams are well underway on this work. In fact, we've recently signed a major contract with one of the world's largest national oil companies, which involves deliverables on the part of both PowerAdvocate and WoodMac. Both teams report this sale would not have happened had the 2 companies not come together.

另一方面，PowerAdvocate 和 Sequel 是相對成熟的組織，除了財務和人力資源整合之外，它們的主要工作是將它們的平台與 Verisk 中的其他平台連接起來。具體來說，PowerAdvocate 是 WoodMac 的石油和天然氣分析平台，而 Sequel 則是 AIR 的 Touchstone 建模平台。各團隊正在順利進行這項工作。事實上，我們最近與世界最大的國家石油公司之一簽署了一份重要合同，PowerAdvocate 和 WoodMac 都需要為此交付成果。雙方團隊都表示，如果不是兩家公司主動合作，這筆交易就不會發生。

The third category is a series of smaller product organizations, most of them in insurance, where the immediate work is to harness the Verisk distribution channel to increase sales. We are well underway with this work.

第三類是一系列規模較小的產品組織，其中大部分是保險業，它們眼下的工作是利用 Verisk 分銷管道來增加銷售額。這項工作進展順利。

At our recent Investor Day, I described the 5 qualities that make our company a moated business, which can produce strong organic revenue growth on a sustained basis, those being: one, vertical market expertise; two, unique datasets, ideally contributed by our customers; three, deep integration with customer workflows; four, global reach leading to an expanding customer account; and five, synergies arising from the sharing of methods and capabilities across our enterprise. I see progress on all fronts. And over the last 90 days, I'm particularly struck by our growing effectiveness in overseas markets, particularly the U.K. As a result, our organic revenue growth in the quarter was 7.6%, consistent with our longer-term goals. Our rate of organic EBITDA growth in the quarter was about 5%, lower than revenue growth and a function, particularly, of the significant investment we made in Geomni as we continue to ramp up that operation. In 2018, I expect that relationship to be reversed, meaning enterprise organic EBITDA growth greater than organic revenue growth.

在最近的投資者日上，我介紹了使我們公司成為一家具有護城河優勢的企業的 5 個特質，這些特質能夠持續地產生強勁的內生收入增長，它們是：一、垂直市場專業知識；二、獨特的數據集，最好是由我們的客戶提供的；三、與客戶工作流程的深度集成；四、全球覆蓋範圍，從而在整個企業內擴展我看到各方面都取得了進展。在過去的90天裡，我尤其對我們在海外市場，特別是英國市場的日益增長的成效感到印象深刻。因此，本季我們的有機收入成長了7.6%，與我們的長期目標一致。本季我們的有機 EBITDA 成長率約為 5%，低於收入成長率，這主要是由於我們對 Geomni 進行了大量投資，因為我們將繼續擴大該業務的規模。我預計 2018 年這種關係將會逆轉，這意味著企業有機 EBITDA 成長將大於有機收入成長。

I'd like to comment on the corporate tax reform that was enacted at the end of 2017. Lee will take you through the specific implications for Verisk as regards our tax rate and the after-tax cash flow and accounting implications. From a strategic perspective, we are treating this as an opportunity to reinvest in our people. And so we have taken the decision to double our training budgets in most categories and to materially increase our contributions to long-term wealth for our people in the form of greater 401(k) matching and expanded employee stock purchase programs. We have built all of these investments into our 2018 budget and still expect a strong bottom line this year. After the additional free cash, we intend to be disciplined with our investors' money, looking for the highest-return investment opportunities and looking favorably on opportunities to return capital to shareholders.

我想就2017年底實施的企業稅改革發表一些看法。Lee 將帶您了解 Verisk 在稅率、稅後現金流量和會計處理方面的具體影響。從策略角度來看，我們把這看成是重新投資員工的機會。因此，我們決定將大多數類別的培訓預算增加一倍，並透過提高 401(k) 匹配額和擴大員工股票購買計劃，大幅增加對員工長期財富的貢獻。我們已將所有這些投資納入 2018 年預算，並仍預計今年將取得強勁的盈利。在獲得額外自由現金後，我們將嚴格管理投資者的資金，尋找回報最高的投資機會，並積極尋求向股東返還資本的機會。

With that, I'll hand it over to Mark for some comments on the insurance business.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給馬克，請他對保險業發表一些看法。

Thank you, Scott. In our insurance business, we had another strong quarter, with all insurance-facing businesses, industry standard programs, catastrophe modeling, repair cost estimating, claims analytics and remote imagery contributing to the growth.

謝謝你，斯科特。在我們的保險業務中，我們迎來了一個強勁的季度，所有面向保險的業務、行業標準項目、災害建模、維修成本估算、理賠分析和遠端影像都為成長做出了貢獻。

Let me highlight a few areas that drove top line growth and update you on several initiatives to aggregate new sources of data to better position us for growth in the future.

讓我重點介紹幾個推動營收成長的領域，並向您報告幾項旨在整合新資料來源的舉措，以便我們更好地為未來的成長做好準備。

Our claims businesses, repair cost estimating and claims analytics experienced a nice uptick in growth in the second half of 2017. We have been successful expanding our insurance fraud prevention business, claims analytics, by broadening our use cases, aggregating additional information, licensing our antifraud analytic tools and extending beyond our traditional insurance customers to entities such as self-insured companies and third-party administrators. In most cases, these opportunities take the form of multiyear contracts, but in some instances, start as a paid proof of concept. We are optimistic about these extensions of our business.

2017 年下半年，我們的理賠業務、維修成本估算和理賠分析業務均達到了良好的成長。我們透過擴大應用案例、匯總更多資訊、授權使用反詐欺分析工具以及將業務範圍從傳統的保險客戶擴展到自保公司和第三方管理機構等實體，成功地擴展了我們的保險詐欺預防業務和理賠分析。大多數情況下，這些機會以多年合約的形式出現，但在某些情況下，則以付費概念驗證的形式開始。我們對業務的這些拓展持樂觀態度。

We've also experienced a surge in opportunities in our workers' compensation solutions business, bringing on several major new accounts during 2017. Over the past couple of years, we've invested to provide increased automation and enhanced (inaudible) to our customers. This investment has proven successful as we implement new customers and attract a growing sales pipeline.

我們在工傷賠償解決方案業務方面也獲得了大量機會，在 2017 年獲得了幾個重要的新客戶。過去幾年，我們投入資金，為客戶提供更高的自動化水準和更完善的（聽不清楚）服務。事實證明，這項投資是成功的，我們獲得了新客戶，並吸引了不斷增長的銷售管道。

During the fourth quarter, Geomni, our business that harnesses remote sensing and machine learning technologies to provide information about residential and commercial structures, deployed one of its regional hubs to proactively capture aerial imagery in response to the Southern California fires. Imagery collected helps document the areas affected, provide operational efficiencies and accelerate the damage estimation and restoration process for homes and commercial buildings, helping insurers protect people and property. As Scott mentioned in his earlier comments, we have made significant progress at Geomni, signing new customers, advancing the analytics and building geographic coverage.

第四季度，我們旗下利用遙感和機器學習技術提供有關住宅和商業建築資訊的業務部門 Geomni，部署了其區域中心之一，主動捕捉空中影像，以應對南加州的火災。收集到的影像有助於記錄受影響的區域，提高營運效率，加速房屋和商業建築的損失評估和修復過程，幫助保險公司保護人員和財產。正如 Scott 在先前的評論中提到的，我們在 Geomni 取得了重大進展，包括簽署新客戶、推廣分析和建立地理覆蓋範圍。

We were thrilled to sign an exclusive agreement with Honda to join the Verisk Data Exchange in the fourth quarter. Honda will provide Verisk with driving data from consenting owners of Honda's connected cars. Honda customers can access the Verisk Driving Score, a simple metric that rates their driving behavior. Insurers can use the data from the Verisk Data Exchange with their usage-based insurance programs, typically designed to reward safe drivers or use Verisk driver behavior scores that are filed and approved for use today in 43 states. With the addition of Honda, the total market share of automakers participating in the Verisk Data Exchange increased to 27% of vehicles sold in the United States. The exchange now has close to 3 million cars, with 30 billion miles of driving data. And it's growing at more than 150,000 vehicles each month. This telematics information is a key component of our broader mission to aggregate remote sensing information and find insights to help our customers. This remote sensing data includes information from mobile devices, connected homes, connected buildings. For example, with connected homes, our research using IoT data has shown opportunities for Lyft or improved underwriting results for our customers writing homeowners' insurance.

我們很高興與本田簽署獨家協議，使其在第四季度加入 Verisk 數據交換平台。本田將向 Verisk 提供經同意的本田連網汽車車主的駕駛數據。本田客戶可以存取 Verisk 駕駛評分，這是一個簡單的指標，用於評估他們的駕駛行為。保險公司可以將 Verisk 資料交換平台的資料用於其基於使用情況的保險計劃，這些計劃通常旨在獎勵安全駕駛員，或使用 Verisk 駕駛員行為評分，這些評分已在 43 個州備案並獲準使用。隨著本田的加入，參與 Verisk 數據交換的汽車製造商的總市場份額增加到美國汽車銷量的 27%。該交易所目前擁有近 300 萬輛汽車，累計行駛里程達 300 億英里。而且每月新增車輛超過 15 萬輛。這種遠端資訊處理資訊是我們更廣泛使命的關鍵組成部分，即匯總遙感資訊並從中發現洞見，以幫助我們的客戶。這些遙感數據包括來自行動裝置、智慧家庭、智慧建築的資訊。例如，利用物聯網數據進行的研究表明，對於 Lyft 等公司而言，智慧家庭帶來了機遇，或為我們的房屋保險客戶帶來了更好的承保結果。

International expansion is an important part of our long-term growth plan. AIR continues to lead our international expansion efforts as PICC Reinsurance Company Limited, a leading Chinese reinsurance company, has collaborated with AIR to better assess and manage its growing portfolio of catastrophe risk reinsurance business. Another positive on the international front was our introduction of a new inland flood model for Japan, along with enhancements to our Japan typhoon model. The integration of our new international acquisitions has progressed smoothly. The newly acquired businesses have gained immediate benefit by leveraging Verisk's technology infrastructure and cloud capabilities.

國際擴張是我們長期成長計畫的重要組成部分。AIR 繼續引領我們的國際擴張努力，中國領先的再保險公司 PICC 再保險有限公司已與 AIR 合作，以更好地評估和管理其不斷增長的巨災風險再保險業務組合。國際方面另一個積極進展是我們推出了日本新的內陸洪水模型，並改進了日本颱風模型。我們新收購的國際公司的整合工作進展順利。新收購的企業透過利用 Verisk 的技術基礎設施和雲端功能，立即獲得了收益。

Specific to Sequel, we're working conjointly with clients to enable seamless data transfer from Sequel's business intelligence tools to AIR's Touchstone Solutions. In the longer term, our goal is to integrate Sequel's front-end exposure management and visualization platform with ISO's underwriting information and portfolio assessment and modeling features of AIR. This modular approach will allow product cross-sell with Sequel customers as well as existing Verisk customers. Our integration efforts at Sequel are also working in 2 directions, as evidenced by an opportunity for our claims analytics business to leverage some existing Sequel software to serve our U.S. claims analytics customers.

針對 Sequel，我們正在與客戶共同努力，以實現從 Sequel 商業智慧工具到 AIR 的 Touchstone Solutions 的無縫資料傳輸。從長遠來看，我們的目標是將 Sequel 的前端風險敞口管理和視覺化平台與 ISO 的核保資訊以及 AIR 的投資組合評估和建模功能整合起來。這種模組化方法將允許向 Sequel 客戶以及現有的 Verisk 客戶進行產品交叉銷售。我們在 Sequel 的整合工作也在兩個方向上取得進展，這體現在我們的理賠分析業務有機會利用一些現有的 Sequel 軟體來服務我們的美國理賠分析客戶。

All in all, both qualitatively and quantitatively, we are pleased with the performance of the insurance business.

總的來說，無論從品質或數量上看，我們都對保險業務的表現感到滿意。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lee to cover our financial results.

接下來，我將把電話交給李，讓他來介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Mark. Let me start by saying what an honor it is for me to be here and to have the opportunity to serve this great company and its shareholders and work with Scott and his management team. As Scott mentioned, I've had the opportunity in the past 2 months to meet or speak directly with 18 of our top 25 active investors, representing 50% of the active voting interest of our shareholders. We spoke about a wide variety of topics, and I've received many thoughtful perspectives, but 2 areas came up consistently: one, a desire to better understand our capital management discipline; and two, improve transparency and communication of our financial and operating performance. In both areas, I'm confident that we'll demonstrate improvements in 2018. And to that end, we'll be implementing a quarterly earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2018 that will provide a consistent structure for reviewing the company's performance across our business lines, and we are considering other enhancements based on the feedback I've received.

謝謝你，馬克。首先，我非常榮幸能來到這裡，有機會為這家偉大的公司及其股東服務，並與史考特及其管理團隊合作。正如 Scott 所提到的，在過去的兩個月裡，我有機會與我們 25 位最活躍的投資者中的 18 位見面或直接交談，他們代表了我們股東 50% 的活躍投票權。我們討論了各種各樣的話題，我收到了很多有見地的觀點，但有兩個方面反覆出現：一是希望更好地了解我們的資本管理紀律；二是提高財務和營運績效的透明度和溝通。我相信，在這兩個領域，我們都將在 2018 年取得進展。為此，我們將從 2018 年第一季開始實施季度收益報告製度，這將為審查公司各業務線的業績提供一個統一的框架，並且我們正在根據我收到的反饋考慮其他改進措施。

Moving to the financial results for the quarter. I'd like to start by focusing at a high level on the 2 key financial metrics that we discussed at Investor Day: organic revenue growth and organic EBITDA growth. Verisk demonstrated very solid growth performance and momentum in the fourth quarter. Organic revenue growth of 7.6%, 7.4% on a constant-currency basis, was consistent with our long-term guidance and was an increase in the comparable third quarter 2017 year-over-year growth of 6.5% or 7% on a constant-currency basis. Average quarterly organic growth on a constant-currency basis in the second half of 2017 of 7.2% compared to 3.3% for the first half, substantiating the expectation we had of acceleration in the second half.

接下來來看看本季的財務業績。我想先從宏觀層面重點談談我們在投資者日上討論的兩個關鍵財務指標：有機收入成長和有機 EBITDA 成長。Verisk在第四季展現了非常穩健的成長表現和發展勢頭。有機收入成長7.6%，以固定匯率計算成長7.4%，與我們的長期預期一致，且高於2017年第三季年比6.5%或以固定匯率計算7%的成長率。2017 年下半年以固定匯率計算的平均季度有機成長率為 7.2%，而上半年為 3.3%，證實了我們對下半年加速成長的預期。

I would note total acquired revenue in the quarter from all deals that haven't moved into organic was $26 million and revenue from the 3 August acquisitions, G2, Sequel and LCI, contributed $16 million in the quarter, with combined margins of around 36%, as expected.

需要指出的是，本季所有尚未轉化為有機成長的交易的總收購收入為 2,600 萬美元，而 8 月收購的 G2、Sequel 和 LCI 的收入在本季度貢獻了 1,600 萬美元，合併利潤率約為 36%，符合預期。

For the full year, Verisk delivered organic revenue growth of 4.5% and 5.3% on a constant-currency basis, below our targeted level as the result of industry headwinds at WoodMac and the contract expirations at Argus that reduced revenues from 2016, particularly in the first half.

全年來看，Verisk 的有機收入增長為 4.5%，按固定匯率計算為 5.3%，低於我們的目標水平，這是由於 WoodMac 面臨行業逆風以及 Argus 的合約到期導致 2016 年的收入減少，尤其是在上半年。

A quick side note on revenue accounting and as required, the company will be adopting the new revenue recognition standard, ASC 606, in the first quarter of 2018. We expect the impact to be immaterial to our financial results.

關於收入會計，需要簡要說明的是，公司將在 2018 年第一季採用新的收入確認準則 ASC 606。我們預計這將對我們的財務表現產生微不足道的影響。

So breaking down the organic revenue growth. As you will see in Table 2 in the press release, Decision Analytics and, particularly, Decision Analytics insurance was the primary contributor to this organic growth at 12.9%, with strong growth in repair cost estimating and claims analytics solutions, with good growth in underwriting solutions also. The positive financial impact of severe weather on our business in the third quarter spilled over into the fourth quarter and contributed about $8 million in repair cost estimating and imagery-based solution revenue. Even excluding this revenue, organic insurance revenue growth was 8.2%.

接下來，我們來分析一下有機收入成長情形。正如您將在新聞稿的表 2 中看到的那樣，決策分析，特別是決策分析保險，是這一有機增長的主要貢獻者，增長了 12.9%，其中維修成本估算和理賠分析解決方案實現了強勁增長，承保解決方案也實現了良好的增長。第三季度惡劣天氣對我們業務的積極財務影響延續到了第四季度，並貢獻了約 800 萬美元的維修成本估算和基於圖像的解決方案收入。即使不計入這部分收入，有機保險收入成長率也達到了 8.2%。

Decision Analytics energy demonstrated an improvement to 5.2% organic growth in the fourth quarter, up from 0.2% in the third quarter. Given the currency impact for energy, principally WoodMac, I would note that, on a constant-currency basis, energy revenue growth was 4.7% and has increased for each of the prior 3 quarters. We are pleased to see the trends in our subscription business continuing to be positive, complemented by good consulting revenue, which is typically a leading market indicator.

Decision Analytics 的能源業務在第四季度實現了 5.2% 的有機成長，高於第三季的 0.2%。考慮到匯率對能源產業（尤其是伍德麥肯錫）的影響，我想指出，以固定匯率計算，能源產業的收入成長率為 4.7%，並且在前三個季度中每個季度都有所成長。我們很高興看到訂閱業務的發展趨勢持續向好，諮詢收入也表現良好，這通常是市場領先指標。

At Decision Analytics financial services, they delivered growth of 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which represented a reversal from the prior 3 quarters of year-over-year decreases as a result of contract expirations. Organic growth was driven by strength in analytical data warehousing products, share of wallet model algorithms and media effectiveness solutions. We continue to win significant new business with clients, as Scott described, in media effectiveness, analytical solutions, competitive benchmarking, decisioning algorithms and regulatory solutions. G2 and LCI continue to integrate well, with joint product roadshows underway, which have been well received by clients. Fintellix has also contributed by driving new products in the insurance sector. We believe that financial services demonstrated clear progress in the fourth quarter, and we remain confident that it will contribute to organic growth in 2018.

Decision Analytics 金融服務公司在第四季度實現了 0.4% 的成長，扭轉了先前三個季度因合約到期而同比下降的局面。有機成長主要得益於分析資料倉儲產品、錢包份額模型演算法和媒體效果解決方案的強勁表現。正如 Scott 所描述的那樣，我們在媒體效果、分析解決方案、競爭基準、決策演算法和監管解決方案等領域不斷贏得客戶的重要新業務。G2 和 LCI 繼續保持良好的整合，雙方正在進行聯合產品路演，並受到了客戶的好評。Fintellix 也透過推動保險業的新產品做出了貢獻。我們認為金融服務業在第四季度取得了明顯的進展，我們仍然相信它將有助於2018年的內生成長。

Risk Assessment generated 5.3% year-over-year growth for the period, also up from 4.9% in the third quarter and having steadily increased over each of the 4 quarters in 2017. Organic growth was driven by the annual effective growth in 2017 invoices as well as new solutions in industry-standard insurance programs and an increase in underwriting solutions subscription revenue.

風險評估業務在本季度實現了 5.3% 的同比增長，高於第三季度的 4.9%，並且在 2017 年的 4 個季度中穩步增長。有機成長主要得益於 2017 年發票的年度有效成長，以及行業標準保險計劃中的新解決方案和承保解決方案訂閱收入的增長。

Organic EBITDA growth was 4.9% for the quarter on a year-over-year basis compared to organic revenue growth of 7.6% and reflected organic cost of revenue and SG&A expense growth of 9.7% as the result of continued investment in several internal opportunities, including Geomni most notably. For the year, EBITDA growth was 4% over 2016 compared to organic revenue growth of 4.5% as the result of 5.2% full year growth in the cost of revenue and SG&A, also reflecting continued internal investment in several growth opportunities and organic revenue growth below targets at Argus and WoodMac relative to expense growth.

本季有機 EBITDA 年成長 4.9%，而有機收入年增 7.6%，有機收入成本和銷售、管理及行政費用年增 9.7%，這是由於持續投資於多個內部機會，其中最值得注意的是 Geomni。本年度，EBITDA 較 2016 年成長 4%，而有機收入成長 4.5%，這是由於全年營收成本和銷售、管理及行政費用成長 5.2% 所致，同時也反映出公司持續對多個成長機會進行內部投資，以及 Argus 和 WoodMac 的有機收入成長低於預期目標（相對於費用成長而言）。

Excluding the impact of expense related to internal investment initiatives, organic EBITDA grew at a higher rate than the organic revenue growth in 2017.

剔除與內部投資計畫相關的支出影響，2017 年有機 EBITDA 的成長率高於有機收入的成長率。

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations margin was 49% for 2017, down slightly from 50% in 2016, primarily of -- as the result of the impact of acquisitions. On an organic basis, EBITDA margin was essentially unchanged.

2017 年持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 49%，略低於 2016 年的 50%，主要原因是收購的影響。從有機成長來看，EBITDA利潤率基本上保持不變。

Depreciation and amortization was $64 million in the quarter, up 25 -- I'm sorry, up 28% from the prior year quarter and $237 million for 2017, up 12% from 2016, reflecting the impact of acquisitions and increased capital expenditures in both periods. We expect fixed asset depreciation and amortization of about $150 million to $160 million and amortization of intangible assets of about $130 million in 2018.

本季折舊和攤銷額為 6,400 萬美元，比上年同期增長 25%——抱歉，是 28%；2017 年全年折舊和攤銷額為 2.37 億美元，比 2016 年增長 12%，反映了這兩個時期收購和資本支出增加的影響。我們預計 2018 年固定資產折舊和攤提約為 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元，無形資產攤提約 1.3 億美元。

Interest expense was $32 million in the quarter, up 13% from the prior year quarter, and $119 million for 2017, down 1% from 2016.

本季利息支出為 3,200 萬美元，較上年同期成長 13%；2017 年利息支出為 1.19 億美元，較 2016 年下降 1%。

Total debt was $3 billion at December 31, 2017. Our leverage at the end of the fourth quarter was 2.7x, and we expect to bring our leverage back to our reference level of 2.5x over time. Our cash and cash equivalents were about $142 million at the end of 2017.

截至2017年12月31日，總債務為30億美元。在第四季末，我們的槓桿率為 2.7 倍，我們預計隨著時間的推移，槓桿率將恢復到 2.5 倍的參考水準。截至 2017 年底，我們的現金及現金等價物約為 1.42 億美元。

Our reported effective tax rate for the quarter was a negative 14.1% and a positive 19.7% for the full year of 2017. These effective rates reflect an $89 million benefit from the revaluation of our net deferred tax liabilities resulting from recently enacted tax legislation. We estimate our effective tax rate in 2018 to be between 21% and 23%.

本季報告的實際稅率為負 14.1%，2017 年全年報告的實際稅率為正 19.7%。這些有效稅率反映了由於最近頒布的稅收立法導致我們的淨遞延所得稅負債重新評估而產生的 8,900 萬美元收益。我們估計 2018 年的實際稅率在 21% 到 23% 之間。

Diluted adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $1.34 for the fourth quarter, up from $0.80 in the prior year quarter and $3.74 for 2017, up from $3.11 in 2016. The increase in both periods primarily reflects, naturally, the impact of 2017 tax reform. Excluding the tax reform benefit of $0.53 per share in the fourth quarter, diluted adjusted EPS was $0.81 for the quarter, up 1% from the prior year, and $3.21 for 2017, up 3% for 2016. The average diluted share count was 168.3 million shares for the quarter, and our diluted share count at the end of 2017 was 168.7 million shares.

第四季持續經營業務的稀釋調整後每股收益為 1.34 美元，高於去年同期的 0.80 美元；2017 年全年為 3.74 美元，高於 2016 年的 3.11 美元。這兩個時期的成長主要反映了 2017 年稅制改革的影響，這自然是主要原因。若不計入第四季度每股 0.53 美元的稅收改革收益，該季度稀釋調整後每股收益為 0.81 美元，比上年增長 1%；2017 年全年稀釋調整後每股收益為 3.21 美元，比 2016 年增長 3%。本季平均稀釋後股份數為 1.683 億股，而 2017 年底的稀釋後股份數為 1.687 億股。

Moving to cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $744 million for 2017, up 34% from $556 million in 2016. Capital expenditures from continuing operations were $184 million in 2017, up 26% from $146 million in 2016, reflecting primarily increased investment in Geomni. We anticipate capital expenditures to be between $220 million and $230 million in 2018, including the continued investments in our aerial imagery solutions at Geomni that will peak in 2018. Subsequently, we expect CapEx as a percentage of revenues to steadily decline.

接下來談談現金流。2017 年持續經營活動產生的淨現金流量為 7.44 億美元，比 2016 年的 5.56 億美元增加了 34%。2017 年持續經營業務的資本支出為 1.84 億美元，比 2016 年的 1.46 億美元增加了 26%，主要反映了對 Geomni 的投資增加。我們預計 2018 年的資本支出將在 2.2 億美元至 2.3 億美元之間，其中包括對 Geomni 的航空影像解決方案的持續投資，該投資將在 2018 年達到高峰。隨後，我們預期資本支出佔收入的比例將穩定下降。

Free cash flow was $560 million for 2017, an increase of 9.8% after excluding $100 million of taxes paid related to the sale of the health care business in 2016. We repurchased 3.4 million shares in 2017 for a total return of capital to shareholders of $270 million at a weighted average price of $80.39. At December 31, 2017, we had $366 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization, and we expect to continue share repurchases in 2018.

2017 年自由現金流為 5.6 億美元，在扣除 2016 年出售醫療保健業務所支付的 1 億美元稅款後，成長了 9.8%。2017 年，我們回購了 340 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.7 億美元的資本，加權平均價格為每股 80.39 美元。截至 2017 年 12 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權額度還剩 3.66 億美元，我們預計將在 2018 年繼續進行股票回購。

So in summary, the results for 2017 reflected some growth challenges in the first part of the year at Wood Mackenzie, resulting from the cyclical decline in the energy sector along with FX headwinds and from certain contract expirations at Argus. Both businesses demonstrated revenue progress in the second half, with strong performance in our insurance business, helped in part by revenue generated by an exceptional level of severe weather in the third quarter. We returned to our targeted organic revenue growth in the second half of 2017. We remain confident in our long-term organic growth targets, particularly if growth continues to improve at both WoodMac and Argus as we saw in the second half. We are pleased with our 2018 plan. We're excited about the opportunities to invest, looking to drive long-term profitable growth. We remain confident that we have the financial strength and capital structure to support investments for the long term.

總而言之，2017 年的表現反映了 Wood Mackenzie 在上半年面臨的一些成長挑戰，這是由於能源產業的周期性下滑、外匯逆風以及 Argus 的一些合約到期造成的。兩項業務在下半年均實現了收入成長，其中保險業務表現強勁，部分原因是第三季度異常嚴重的極端天氣帶來了收入。2017年下半年，我們恢復了既定的有機收入成長目標。我們仍然對長期有機成長目標充滿信心，特別是如果 WoodMac 和 Argus 的成長能夠像我們在下半年看到的那樣繼續改善。我們對2018年的計畫感到滿意。我們對投資機會感到興奮，希望推動長期獲利成長。我們仍然相信，我們擁有足夠的財務實力和資本結構來支持長期投資。

We continue to appreciate all the support and interest in Verisk. (Operator Instructions) And with that, I'll ask the operator to open up the line for questions.

我們衷心感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。（操作員指示）接下來，我將請操作員開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tim McHugh from William Blair & Company.

（操作說明）您的第一個問題來自威廉布萊爾公司的提姆麥克休。

Can I ask about the comment, first, related to industry standard programs? I guess, one, just elaborate on why, I guess, take a little bit more cautious approach to, it sounded like, pricing, essentially. Because I think in the past you've talked about kind of the -- your pricing capability being somewhat separate from the kind of the environment for the insurance industry. So maybe just elaborate on what drove that. And anything about how significant that might be in terms of the risk profile?

首先，我想問一下關於行業標準程序的評論？我想，首先，請詳細說明為什麼，聽起來，在定價方面，應該採取更謹慎的態度。因為我認為你過去曾談過——你的定價能力與保險業的環境在某種程度上是分開的。所以，或許可以詳細說說是什麼原因促成了這件事。那麼，這對於風險狀況而言究竟有多重要呢？

Thank you, Tim. Let me start with the end. It's not a particularly significant effect, but of course, folks will be watching our year-over-year progression as we go through 2018. So we have visibility into this, so we just wanted to note it. It's not a very material effect. We're talking about basis points. And the reason that we did it was that we've just in the round have accounted for where our insurance customers were as they exited '17, their -- the state of their own businesses. And the most important thing in the growth of our insurance business by far, and I hope that's evident to everybody, is the cross-selling of our total suite of solutions. And so essentially, we made a decision about where we're going to take our gains in 2018. And at the margin, we're leaning a little bit more towards the other parts of the suite facing our insurance customers. So we just wanted to note it for you. It's not a big effect at all. We wanted to call it out just because it's a line item that we report, but it's not highly material.

謝謝你，提姆。讓我先從結尾說起。這雖然不是特別顯著的影響，但當然，大家會注意我們在 2018 年的逐年進展。我們已經了解了此事，所以想記錄下來。它不會產生非常實質的影響。我們說的是基點。我們這樣做的原因是，我們已經全面了解了我們的保險客戶在 2017 年底的營運狀況，以及他們自身業務的狀況。而我們保險業務成長中最重要的一點，我希望每個人都能明白，就是交叉銷售我們的全套解決方案。因此，我們基本上決定了 2018 年我們將把獲得的收益用於哪裡。而且，從邊際效益來看，我們更傾向於保險客戶的其他產品套件部分。所以我們只是想提醒您。影響微乎其微。我們想特別提一下，因為這是我們報告中的一個項目，但它並不十分重要。

Okay. And just to be clear, that's driven by -- just that you were talking about industry standard, not the broader insurance kind of including Decision Analytics and so forth?

好的。需要澄清的是，您剛才談論的是行業標準，而不是更廣泛的保險領域，包括決策分析等等，這是由…驅動的嗎？

That's correct. I was only talking about our industry standard line item within the overall insurance suite. The -- we feel very good about the overall insurance business.

沒錯。我只是在談論我們行業標準保險項目在整體保險方案中的那一項。我們對整個保險業務的前景感到非常樂觀。

And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

So just on the comment about organic EBITDA margins expanding in 2018, I guess, just 2 related questions. So is that before the reinvestment of some of the tax savings? And if so, can you just help size up roughly the magnitude of the reinvestment? And then can you also just give us any sense of the acquisition effect on 2018 margins? There's a lot of moving pieces with acquired/deferred revenue headwinds and some prior acquisitions being anniversaried in that regard in 2017 transaction expenses. So just -- I guess the first question is, on the organic revenue -- or organic margin outlook, does it include the reinvestment? And then if you can help us size up those 2 pieces, please.

關於 2018 年有機 EBITDA 利潤率擴張的評論，我想問兩個相關的問題。所以這是在將部分稅收節省再投資之前的情況嗎？如果可以的話，能否幫忙大致估算一下再投資的規模？那麼，您能否也簡單介紹一下此次收購對 2018 年利潤率的影響？2017 年的交易費用中，有許多變數，包括收購/遞延收入的不利因素，以及一些先前收購的周年紀念日。所以，我想第一個問題是，關於有機收入或有機利潤率前景，它是否包括再投資？如果你能幫我們測量一下這兩件衣服的尺寸就太好了。

Right, so -- thanks, Jeff. I'll start, then I'll bump it over to Lee. So with respect to the statement about the progression of organic EBITDA exceeding that of organic revenue, that is before any tax effects whatsoever. So that is net of all the investing that we're doing in the business in total. And so hopefully, that's responsive to your question. With respect to some of the detail underneath, Lee, do you want to add anything to all that?

好的，謝謝你，傑夫。我先開始，然後把任務交給李。因此，關於有機 EBITDA 成長超過有機收入成長的說法，這還不包括任何稅收影響。所以這是扣除我們在公司所有投資後的淨額。希望這能解答你的問題。李，關於下面提到的一些細節，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Jeff, so I think part of the question is prior to the reinvestment of the tax benefits. And so I think our expectation for the organic EBITDA growth reflects kind of the core business as we are looking at the investment in the growth initiatives. We expect that, that will contribute to margin expansion over time as we reach the fruition on those investments. But as I indicated in my comments, when you exclude those investments, we saw, in 2017, actually an expansion of organic EBITDA margin. And that's really where we're focused currently is, one, what does the -- how is the core performance? How is the core business performing? Secondly, how are the investments performing? And then with regard to acquisitions, what we had provided is the impact of acquisitions in the fourth quarter. It's difficult to predict the overall impact of the acquisitions on the margin over time. We'd like to focus on that organic EBITDA margin because that's really what we're managing to. Naturally, as we make acquisitions, as you've seen from some of the disclosures, at their level of EBITDA margin, initially, that will have a dilutive impact, but what we are really focused on is that year-over-year improvement that we will see once those businesses come into the organic fold. So hopefully, that gives you some color on the organic EBITDA margin question.

是的。傑夫，所以我認為問題的一部分在於稅收優惠再投資之前。因此，我認為我們對有機 EBITDA 成長的預期反映了核心業務，因為我們正在關注對成長計劃的投資。我們預計，隨著這些投資逐步取得成果，這將有助於利潤率的逐步提高。但正如我在評論中指出的那樣，如果我們排除這些投資，我們在 2017 年實際上看到了有機 EBITDA 利潤率的擴張。而這正是我們目前關注的重點，第一，核心表現如何？核心業務表現如何？其次，這些投資的表現如何？至於收購方面，我們提供的是收購對第四季的影響。很難預測這些收購對利潤率的長期整體影響。我們想專注於有機 EBITDA 利潤率，因為這才是我們真正努力達到的目標。當然，正如你們從一些披露資訊中看到的那樣，當我們進行收購時，其 EBITDA 利潤率最初會受到稀釋影響，但我們真正關注的是，一旦這些業務併入有機增長體系，我們將看到的逐年改善。希望這能幫助你更好地理解有機 EBITDA 利潤率的問題。

That's helpful. And then on the Argus -- or financial services organic outlook, I think there was a moment at the Investor Day where was a question about should 2018 be an outsized growth year. And I think, Scott, you said it was your expectation that Nana was nodding his head yes. And then there was a comment today about, I think, a grow-over effect from the onetime revenue in '17 as in -- a large new client comes online. So is the expectation, even including that 2018 Argus, has an outsized organic growth year?

那很有幫助。然後，關於 Argus（或金融服務有機成長展望），我認為在投資者日上曾有人提出，2018 年是否應該是一個超高速成長的年份。史考特，我想你說過你期望奶奶會點頭表示同意。今天有人評論說，我認為，這是 2017 年一次性收入帶來的成長效應，就像——一個大型新客戶上線了一樣。即使考慮到 2018 年 Argus 的有機增長幅度巨大，人們是否仍然預期它會實現超乎尋常的增長？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Yes, your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

是的，你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

The first question, just broadly on, I guess, organic revenue growth in '18. Scott, you answered a lot of, I guess, moving pieces and comments. And I think, in insurance, you said 2019 would be bigger than '17. I was wondering if I heard that correctly. Just in the context, Lee, you also walked through -- obviously, second half in line with the long-term organic growth, a range that you'd set out. So I guess, just trying to put those all moving pieces you laid out in front of the call, how should we think of '18 exactly?

第一個問題，大致來說，是關於 2018 年的有機收入成長。斯科特，你解答了很多問題和評論。而且我認為，在保險業，你曾說過 2019 年會比 2017 年更大。我當時在想我是否聽得沒錯。李，就上下文而言，你也談到了——顯然，下半年符合長期有機成長的預期，這是你設定的範圍。所以我想說，只是想把您剛才提到的所有變數都放到電話會議中來，我們該如何看待 2018 年？

Right. So the -- again, this was Tim's question as well. My comment about moderating price increases related only to one part of what we do in insurance, and that's industry-standard insurance programs. And I called it out only because it's a line item that we report separately. So you get to see it. It's a relatively immaterial impact. So hopefully, everybody is clear on that. With respect to the sum of everything that we do in insurance, which is both that as well as all the things that we do in DA insurance, we see '18 as a very positive year. And so the only thing that you should add to that, with respect to my '19 comment, is there will be even a little more wind in our sails in '19 with respect to the industry standard insurance programs because of the hardening that is taking place in the premium environment in insurance. So we see '18 as a good extension of what you saw in the latter half of '17. And in '19, there's one macro factor that will actually be positive as we go forward from '18.

正確的。所以——這也是提姆提出的問題。我關於控制價格上漲的評論僅與我們保險業務的一部分有關，那就是行業標準保險計劃。我之所以特別指出這一點，是因為這是我們單獨報告的一個項目。所以你就能看到了。這造成的影響相對較小。希望大家都明白這一點。就我們在保險領域所做的一切，包括保險業務以及我們在 DA 保險領域所做的一切而言，我們認為 2018 年是非常積極的一年。因此，關於我 2019 年的評論，你唯一需要補充的是，由於保險業保費環境趨於緊張，2019 年我們在行業標準保險計劃方面將會有更大的發展動力。所以我們認為 2018 年是 2017 年下半年趨勢的良好延續。2019 年，有一個宏觀因素實際上會比 2018 年更有利。

So Manav, just to address some of the comments that I was making. First, the targets that we have set out of 7% to 8% organic revenue growth and the EBITDA expansion beyond that, I think, if you look at the fourth quarter, I think the summary that we offered is that we've achieved those targets even though we continue to have progress to be made at both WoodMac and at Argus. And so that is something that we feel positive about the -- our ability to continue to deliver on those expectations in 2018. And clearly, there is continued upside for us factoring in all of the elements that we discussed.

所以，馬納夫，我想回應一下我剛才提出的一些意見。首先，我們設定了 7% 至 8% 的有機收入成長目標，以及在此基礎上 EBITDA 的成長目標。我認為，如果你看一下第四季度，我們給出的總結是，我們已經實現了這些目標，儘管 WoodMac 和 Argus 都還有進步的空間。因此，我們對2018年繼續實現這些預期感到樂觀。顯然，考慮到我們討論的所有因素，我們仍有持續的上漲空間。

Got it. And then my second question is just more on the organic investments you are making and sort of the time of phasing in which we should expect some of the results. So obviously, Geomni sounds like you've already seen some of the fruition with the extreme weather activity. But when do we see the telematics, connected home, all these other things you talk about, start giving you that return you're expecting?

知道了。我的第二個問題更多是關於你們正在進行的有機投資，以及我們應該在多長時間內看到一些成果。顯然，Geomni 聽起來你已經看到了極端天氣活動帶來的一些成果。但是，我們什麼時候才能看到遠端資訊處理、智慧家庭以及你提到的所有這些技術，開始為你帶來你所期望的回報呢？

Right. So let me start here. And Mark, if you care to add anything. Because -- and something that I'd like to just highlight here is that Geomni and telematics both represent a very important theme inside of our business, and that is new types of data that can be pulled in for new forms of decisioning. And one of the things I want to say from the outset is that both of those data types have application in the insurance vertical. They also have application outside of the insurance vertical. So as you think about how we're going to monetize the investments that we're making, I believe what you'll see is -- I believe what we will see is that they will first express themselves mostly in the insurance vertical, but then as we go forward, they will both expand inside of that vertical, but also find ways to grow in other marketplaces. So that's kind of the general story here. So now back to your question then. Yes, we're seeing the fruits of the Geomni investments write down, very exciting development. And so that's really very realtime. We're encouraged by what we see on the IoT front, but it's going to be more of a progressive build in terms of the absolute amount of revenue dollars which are generated by IoT. There are reasons for that, I'll highlight one, Mark, maybe, you'd like to add some others. So we talked about the connected car movement. I feel very, very pleased with the leadership that we're showing in that category. We are the leader in that category. But the rate at which connected cars grow as a percentage of the total population of cars in the United States, that is a longer-term trend. It will take a while for all of the automakers to essentially have turned over their existing fleets and for all cars to be natively connected. So that's kind of a long -- a big wave, but it's a slow wave or steady wave that is moving through the auto world. The effect of IoT in the home, in some ways, may be a little bit faster, but in some ways a little bit slower because of the value associated with the signal that you take off of a car is, in some ways, may be greater than the value of the signal that you take off of a washing machine or a toaster. And so I think IoT -- we are seeing IoT today. It's building, but I think it's kind of a long -- it will be a longer-term sort of a build. Anything you want to add to that, Mark?

正確的。那麼，我就從這裡開始吧。馬克，如果你有什麼要補充的嗎？因為——我想在這裡強調的是，Geomni 和遠端資訊處理都代表了我們業務中一個非常重要的主題，那就是可以引入新的資料類型以進行新的決策。首先我想說明的是，這兩種資料類型在保險業都有應用。它們在保險業之外也有應用。所以，在思考我們如何將投資變現時，我相信你會看到——我相信我們會看到，它們最初主要會在保險領域展現出來，但隨著我們向前發展，它們不僅會在該領域內擴張，還會找到在其他市場發展的方法。事情大概就是這樣。那麼現在回到你的問題。是的，我們正在看到Geomni投資的成果正在減記，這是一個非常令人振奮的進展。所以這真的是非常即時的。我們對物聯網領域的發展感到鼓舞，但物聯網產生的絕對收入金額仍需要逐步成長。這其中是有原因的，我先強調一個，馬克，或許你還想補充一些其他原因。於是我們討論了智慧汽車的發展趨勢。我對我們在該領域展現出的領導地位感到非常非常滿意。我們在該領域處於領先地位。但連網汽車占美國汽車總數的比例成長速度，是長期趨勢。所有汽車製造商要基本完成現有車隊的更新換代，並實現所有汽車的原生互聯，還需要一段時間。所以這有點像一股綿長的浪潮——一股巨大的浪潮，但它是一股緩慢或穩定的浪潮，正在汽車界蔓延。物聯網在家庭中的影響，在某些方面可能更快一些，但在某些方面可能更慢一些，因為從汽車上獲取的信號的價值，在某些方面可能大於從洗衣機或烤麵包機上獲取的信號的價值。所以我認為，物聯網——我們今天正在見證物聯網的出現。它正在建設中，但我認為這是一個漫長的過程——它將是一個長期的建設過程。馬克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think it's well said. I mean, I think the vision is that the rating paradigm will shift as to how automobiles and more importantly people are underwritten in the premiums determined. And we hope to have all that information for every vehicle and every person. At the same time, today, it's a little bit about claims, and so it's a little bit about bespoke modeling to help insurers kind of perfect their own internal behavioral scores.

我覺得說得很好。我的意思是，我認為未來的願景是，汽車（更重要的是人）的保費確定方式將會轉變，評級範式也將隨之改變。我們希望能夠掌握每輛車和每個人的所有相關資訊。同時，如今，它也與理賠有關，因此也與客製化建模有關，以幫助保險公司完善其內部行為評分。

And your next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari from Macquarie Capital.

你的下一個問題來自麥格理資本的 Hamzah Mazari。

My first question is just broadly on pricing. I know you mentioned the insurance piece, and it's not significant. But you also mentioned minimizing price increases on cross-selling in WoodMac with some potential in 2019 on pricing. So just broadly speaking, do you guys view pricing as an underappreciated lever for the business as we look long term? Or is it just you have very high market share and pricing is not a huge lever here because of cross-sell?

我的第一個問題是關於定價的。我知道你提到了保險方面的問題，但這並不重要。但您也提到，WoodMac 將在 2019 年盡量減少交叉銷售的價格上漲，這在定價方面具有一定的潛力。總的來說，從長遠來看，你們是否認為定價是企業被低估的槓桿？還是因為你們的市佔率非常高，而且由於交叉銷售，定價在這裡並不是一個很大的槓桿？

Yes. So let me state this in 2 ways. Pricing is a part of the progression of our revenue every year, including in 2018. I noted the relative degree to which we're making use of the price mechanism in 2018 in one part of what we do in insurance and in energy. But even in that part of insurance and in energy, our pricing is up year-over-year. So please be sure to note that. And then all I would add to that is, in 2019, I believe that there will be, relative to 2018, yet more opportunity where price is concerned for the reasons that I stated. The insurance environment generally hardening on the one hand and Wood Mackenzie's customers continuing to cycle to evermore strength as the commodity cycle has improved. So '18, there is a price effect. It's relatively in line with what was there in '17. I noted the differences. And in '19, I believe the price effect will be even stronger than it was in '18 -- it will be in '18.

是的。讓我用兩種方式來表達一下。定價是我們每年收入成長的一部分，2018 年也不例外。我注意到，在 2018 年，我們在保險和能源領域的部分業務中，對價格機制的使用程度相對較高。但即使在保險和能源的這一領域，我們的價格也比去年同期上漲。所以請務必記住這一點。最後我想補充的是，我認為，就價格而言，相對於 2018 年，2019 年將會有更多機會，原因我已經說過了。一方面，保險環境整體趨於收緊；另一方面，隨著大宗商品週期的改善，伍德麥肯錫的客戶群不斷增強。所以，2018年，價格效應確實存在。這與 2017 年的情況基本一致。我注意到了這些差異。我相信，2019 年的價格效應會比 2018 年更加強烈——2018 年的價格效應肯定會更強。

Very helpful. And just a follow-up question, maybe for Lee on tax reform. Could you remind us -- I know you gave the book tax rate, 21% to 23%. Could you remind us what the cash tax savings impact is in 2018 from tax reform? And in relation to that, you guys are going through a heavy CapEx cycle and that comes down in 2020 or 2022, I guess. Do you pull forward CapEx because of tax reform rules? Just give us a little more detail on tax reform.

很有幫助。還有一個後續問題，或許可以問李關於稅制改革的問題。你能提醒我們一下嗎？我知道你給了圖書稅率，21% 到 23%。能否提醒我們一下，2018 年稅制改革對現金稅省節省的影響為何？而就此而言，你們正經歷著一個資本支出較大的週期，我猜這個週期會在 2020 年或 2022 年有所緩解。您是否因為稅改規定而提前進行資本支出？請您詳細介紹一下稅制改革的情況。

Sure. Thank you, Hamzah. So the answer to your question on the tax rate, so we would anticipate that the drop in our U.S. tax rate resulting from tax reform will generate approximately an incremental $90 million of additional cash flow in 2018. And with regard to whether that has any impact on our CapEx timing, I think the answer is no, that we view each of those projects as pursuing their natural life and our expectations of investing in them from a business standpoint. So no anticipated change on that front.

當然。謝謝你，哈姆札。所以，關於您提出的稅率問題，我們預計，由於稅制改革導緻美國稅率下降，2018 年將產生約 9,000 萬美元的額外現金流。至於這是否會對我們的資本支出時間安排產生任何影響，我認為答案是否定的，我們認為每個項目都會按照其自然生命週期進行，並且我們從商業角度出發，期望對它們進行投資。因此，這方面預計不會有任何變化。

And the next question comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐。

You had indicated your overall insurance growth in 2018 should run at a similar pace as the second half of 2017 organically. Given some of the strength in the second half of '17 came from weather-related catastrophe modeling, is the expectation that you'll see incremental strengthening from other areas within insurance?

您曾表示，2018 年您的整體保險業務成長速度應該與 2017 年下半年的自然成長速度相似。鑑於 2017 年下半年保險業的部分成長來自與天​​氣相關的災害模型，您是否預期保險業的其他領域也將逐步走強？

Yes, that's right. And Mark, I don't know if you want to expand on that.

是的，沒錯。馬克，我不知道你是否想就此展開討論。

I think we feel pretty good across all of our businesses. Clearly, we did benefit from the severe weather. It's tough to predict severe weather in the future, so I note your point. But I think we feel like both contract signings, which were strong at the end of 2017. And most of our businesses are deeply engaged with customers and that ultimately pays benefit.

我認為我們所有業務的狀況都相當不錯。顯然，我們確實從惡劣天氣中受益了。預測未來的極端天氣很困難，所以我明白你的意思。但我認為我們感覺這兩份合約的簽署，在 2017 年底都非常有力。我們的大多數業務都與客戶保持著密切的聯繫，最終會帶來收益。

You'll remember that Mark started his comments commenting on the claims side of our business. So for example, there's a lot that is in that, that actually is not related to severe weather impacts. And so as we look at the portfolio of solutions across everything we do in insurance, yes, we do see broad performance on to the rate of organic revenue growth and insurance that you've seen in the second half of '17.

您應該記得，馬克最初是從我們業務的理賠開始發表評論的。例如，其中有許多內容實際上與極端天氣的影響無關。因此，當我們審視我們在保險領域所做的一切解決方案組合時，是的，我們確實看到了整體業績與 2017 年下半年有機收入增長速度和保險業務的增長速度相符。

Got it. Very helpful. And then secondly, you've obviously made a number of acquisitions in 2017. Can you elaborate on your overall progress in integrating these acquisitions, particularly as it relates to realizing synergies? And when you might expect these acquisitions to be margin-neutral to the company?

知道了。很有幫助。其次，顯然你們在 2017 年進行了一系列收購。您能否詳細介紹一下您在整合這些收購方面的整體進展，尤其是在實現綜效方面？那麼，你預期這些收購何時才能對公司利潤率產生中性影響？

Yes, so you're actually asking -- yes. And you're asking 2 very different questions. So one of them is the integrations are well in hand. You'll remember I commented on sort of the 3 different categories. So there's the category of integration as it relates to image capture, where we needed to create a national capability out of a set of regional businesses. That is substantially achieved. And I was earlier recounting some of the success we had in the fourth quarter of 2017 in using that capability where it was really put to the test because we had -- third and fourth quarter, where we had to move -- we had to keep our feet moving really quickly to keep up with events. And so I think we've demonstrated that, that integration has really been achieved. At this point, the margin progression of what we do at Geomni is a function of just growing the business. It is -- it's not entirely a fixed-cost business, but substantially a fixed-cost business. So as we grow it, the margins will naturally ripen. The other question that you were asking was about the likely intermediate and longer-term progression of margins at the acquired businesses. With the more mature businesses, for example, Sequel and PowerAdvocate that we talked about before, their margin profiles are already good. They're not at the level of the rest of Verisk, but we would expect, as they grow, they will tend to move in that direction. And then there's a handful of smaller acquisitions that were more in the nature of product organizations, and we don't necessarily hold those to the test that their margins have to reach the absolute level of the rest of what we do across Verisk. But incrementally, the growth in the EBITDAs will be positive.

是的，所以你實際上是在問——是的。你問的是兩個截然不同的問題。其中之一是整合工作進展順利。你應該記得我評論過這三個不同的類別。因此，在影像擷取方面存在著一種整合的範疇，我們需要將一系列區域性企業整合為一個國家級的能力。這一點已基本實現。我之前回顧了我們在 2017 年第四季度利用這項能力取得的一些成功，當時這項能力真正經受了考驗，因為在第三季度和第四季度，我們必須行動起來，必須快速行動才能跟上情況。所以我認為我們已經證明，這種融合已經真正實現。目前，Geomni 業務的利潤成長完全取決於業務的成長。的確如此——它並非完全是固定成本業務，但基本上是固定成本業務。所以隨著它的生長，邊緣自然會成熟。您提出的另一個問題是關於被收購業務的利潤率在中長期內可能的發展。例如，我們之前提到的 Sequel 和 PowerAdvocate 等較為成熟的企業，其利潤率狀況已經很好了。他們目前還沒有達到 Verisk 其他公司的水平，但我們預計，隨著他們的成長，他們會朝著那個方向發展。此外，還有一些規模較小的收購，這些收購更像是產品型組織，我們並不一定要求它們的利潤率必須達到 Verisk 其他業務的絕對水準。但從長遠來看，EBITDA 將實現正成長。

And your next question is from the line of Bill Warmington with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的比爾沃明頓。

So a question for you on underwriters and automation. There are a number of tech start-ups looking to accelerate automation in underwriting. They have some catchy names, like Pie Insurance and Lemonade. And how does Verisk interact with these start-ups? Do they collaborate, compete, wait and see?

那麼，關於承保人和自動化，我有個問題想請教您。許多科技新創公司正致力於加速保險承保領域的自動化進程。它們有一些很吸引人的名字，像是「派保險」和「檸檬水」。Verisk 如何與這些新創公司互動？他們會合作、競爭，還是靜觀其變？

So I'm happy to start there. I think, first of all, you should understand with a lot of these start-ups, from InsureTech's perspective, there's 2 types, right. There's some that are risk-bearing entities. And I will tell you, in many cases, as Scott highlighted, they are customers. There's a couple instances where the amount they spent on us was actually more than they actually wrote in premiums. So those are good relationships, and they're very dependent upon us as they want to become very analytic. I think your other question is really around the InsureTech world that is kind of very blossoming now. And we talk frequently, most of the ones that have started to get a little bit of lift or actually have a customer or 2 are usually at our door. And I think we are very well in tune with that environment and that world. The other thing I'd like to highlight, I think a lot of our customers, and I think we believe ourselves to be kind of, in many cases, the ultimate InsureTech. We do a lot of this. We spend a lot of time on R&D. We have a lot of cutting-edge analytic methods, some in search of application, some with ideas around application, and we share that with customers. And I think that thought leadership is something that is well respected.

所以我很高興從這裡開始。我認為，首先你應該明白，從保險科技的角度來看，許多這類新創公司分為兩種類型，對吧。有些是風險承擔實體。而且我還要告訴你，正如史考特所強調的那樣，在很多情況下，他們都是顧客。有幾次，他們在我們身上花的錢實際上比他們實際收取的保費還要多。所以這些都是好的關係，而且他們非常依賴我們，因為他們想要變得非常善於分析。我認為你的另一個問題實際上是關於保險科技領域的，這個領域現在正蓬勃發展。我們經常和他們交流，那些開始取得一些進展或已經擁有了一兩個客戶的公司，通常都會來找我們。我認為我們與那種環境和世界非常契合。我想強調的另一點是，我認為我們的許多客戶，以及我們自己，在很多情況下都認為自己是終極的保險科技公司。我們常做這類事情。我們投入大量時間進行研發。我們擁有許多尖端的分析方法，有些正在尋找應用場景，有些則有一些應用想法，我們會與客戶分享這些方法。我認為思想領導力是備受尊敬的。

So for my second question, congratulations on the Honda win. You have 27% share. I guess my question is, when do you hit the tipping point for more accelerated adoption?

第二個問題，恭喜本田隊獲勝。你擁有27%的股份。我想問的是，何時才能達到加速普及的臨界點？

So I'll do that again. Let me try to highlight. I think we have, for the most part, most insurers now focusing on us as a source of that information. What we need to do, and the industry is going to transition over time, is that not all cars -- as a matter of fact, smaller fraction of cars are connected today. So the way we get information about the car and the vehicle and the driving behavior is a combination of the connected car, which I think is going to be very relevant over the next 5 to 10 years, but also through devices. Your phone has a lot of pertinent information. You opt in. This is all obviously opt-in type of service. And with that information, today, insurers are looking to fine-tune and build models to underwrite. But ultimately, I believe that every pricing decision will tap a database of some form, I hope it to be ours, to understand what that driving behavior was over the past 6 months, and rates and pricing and premiums will change. I think that's the way the rating paradigm will shift for insurance, and we think we're well positioned.

所以我還會再做一次。讓我試著標點一下。我認為，現在大多數保險公司都將我們視為此類資訊的來源。我們需要做的，也是整個產業將會逐漸轉變的，是並非所有汽車——事實上，如今只有較小比例的汽車實現了互聯。因此，我們獲取有關汽車、車輛和駕駛行為的資訊的方式，是透過連網汽車（我認為在未來 5 到 10 年內這將非常重要）以及透過設備來實現的。你的手機裡有很多重要資訊。你選擇加入。顯然，這都是需要用戶選擇加入的服務。有了這些信息，如今保險公司正在尋求改進和建立承保模型。但最終，我相信每個定價決策都會利用某種形式的資料庫（我希望是我們自己的資料庫），以了解過去 6 個月的駕駛行為，然後費率、定價和保費都會改變。我認為保險業的評級模式將會朝著這個方向轉變，而我們認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。

And your next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

I want to come back to the margin outlook because, quite frankly, I'm still a little bit confused with all the moving pieces. So Lee, I guess, when you put it all together, the organic expansion, but also kind of the impact of investments and the acquisitions, I mean, where roughly should we be shaking out for the margins? I mean, it sounds like margins should be down overall a little bit. Is this really just a Decision Analytics story? Or is Risk Assessment also margin decline? So any incremental comment you can give about the magnitude would be helpful.

我想再談談利潤率前景，因為坦白說，我對所有這些變數仍然有點困惑。所以李，我想，當你把所有因素綜合起來考慮，包括有機成長，以及投資和收購的影響，我的意思是，我們大致應該如何確定利潤率呢？我的意思是，聽起來整體利潤率應該會略有下降。這真的只是一個決策分析的故事嗎？或者說，風險評估也會導致利潤率下降？所以，如果您能提供任何關於規模的補充信息，都將不勝感激。

Sure. Thanks, Alex. The -- so the way I would summarize it, Alex, and building off of Scott's comments, is that we expect, in 2018, that on an organic basis, our EBITDA margins should expand. And that is a combination of kind of the total organic business, meaning the core business and the growth initiatives at Geomni and the chemicals and the subsurface at WoodMac and the others that we've described. And so the function of continuing to target the 7% to 8% organic revenue growth and continued improvement in WoodMac and Argus, we believe, will enable us to achieve that EBITDA growth in excess of overall revenue growth. As it relates to the acquisition impact, obviously, that's a variable that is more difficult to anticipate, and the overall net effect will end up being a balancing of what we can achieve from an organic standpoint in terms of margin expansion, offset to some extent by the impact of the acquisitions that are coming on. And so we are trying to give more focus around that organic EBITDA margin, so that you can see meaningfully the progression that we're making in the core business. And then over time, what I would emphasize is that all of the acquisitions that we look at, similar to our business, have great operating leverage. And so that we expect that they will contribute to overall EBITDA growth in those businesses in excess of their organic revenue growth. So hopefully that answers it. I know that probably what you're looking for is what is the net impact on the acquisitions to the whole, but that becomes that net impact between the 2. The important thing that we feel we want folks to focus on is that organic EBITDA margin, which we feel confident will expand in 2018.

當然。謝謝你，亞歷克斯。所以，Alex，我總結一下，並在此基礎上補充Scott的評論，我們預計，2018年，我們的EBITDA利潤率將實現有機成長。這實際上是整個有機業務的綜合體，包括Geomni的核心業務和成長計劃，以及WoodMac的化學品和地下業務，以及我們之前提到的其他業務。因此，我們相信，繼續以 7% 至 8% 的有機收入成長為目標，並不斷提升 WoodMac 和 Argus 的業績，將使我們能夠實現 EBITDA 成長超過整體營收成長的目標。至於收購的影響，顯然這是一個更難預測的變量，最終的淨影響將是我們在利潤率擴張方面從自身發展所能取得的成就，與即將進行的收購的影響在一定程度上相互抵消的結果。因此，我們正努力更加關注有機 EBITDA 利潤率，以便您能夠實際看到我們在核心業務方面取得的進展。然後，隨著時間的推移，我想強調的是，我們考察的所有與我們業務類似的收購項目都具有很強的營運槓桿作用。因此，我們預計它們對這些業務的整體 EBITDA 成長的貢獻將超過其自身收入成長。希望這樣就能解答你的疑問了。我知道您可能想知道的是收購對整體的淨影響，但這實際上是兩者之間的淨影響。我們認為大家應該關注的重點是內生性 EBITDA 利潤率，我們有信心該利潤率在 2018 年會成長。

Right. And maybe just to add to that, I kind of right upfront, and then Lee also emphasized that we have benefited from the listening tour that Lee has engaged with our investors. And one of the messages that was very clear was that our investors, in general, would like to hear us talk with increased emphasis about organic results, organic revenue growth and organic EBITDA progression. And so you're going to hear that more as a part of our presentation. But we're very excited about the acquisitions also, which are contributing in 2018 to the overall top and bottom line of the company. And we're excited about the contributions they'll make this year and the contributions they'll make in the future. But you're hearing an emphasis on organic because that's what our investors have told us they'd like us to have.

正確的。或許還要補充一點，我一開始就強調，李也強調，我們從李與投資者進行的傾聽之旅中受益匪淺。其中一個非常明確的訊息是，我們的投資者普遍希望我們更加重視談論內生性績效、內生性收入成長和內生性 EBITDA 成長。所以，在接下來的演講中，你會更聽到這方面的內容。但我們也對這些收購感到非常興奮，這些收購在 2018 年為公司的整體營收和利潤做出了貢獻。我們對他們今年和未來將要做出的貢獻感到興奮。但你們會聽到我們強調有機成長，因為我們的投資者告訴我們，他們希望我們這樣做。

And let me add one thing just to allay any concerns. It's not because we don't want to be focused on the financial returns or the acquisitions in -- as I've talked about with a lot of investors, the focus there has to be, "Are we generating good returns on capital for that component of the business?" Clearly, it has a financial impact overall, but I want to make certain that we build on the disclosure that we provided at Investor Day around the performance of those entities from a capital standpoint in addition to the financial performance. And so I think that will be something that you'll see in 2018, where we'll be working to enhance disclosure around those components. So just wanted to add that point.

最後，為了消除大家的疑慮，我還要補充一點。這並非因為我們不想專注於財務回報或收購——正如我與許多投資者討論過的那樣，重點必須放在「我們是否為這部分業務創造了良好的資本回報？」顯然，這會對整體財務業績產生影響，但我希望確保我們不僅在財務業績方面，還能在投資者日披露這些實體的資本表現。所以我認為這將是 2018 年你們會看到的事情，我們將努力加強對這些組成部分的揭露。所以，我只是想補充這一點。

All right. Looking forward to more disclosures then, I guess. And then secondly, maybe just shifting to WoodMac for a second. I think you gave some commentary at the beginning, Scott, but I think the fourth quarter -- and I think you highlighted it at Investor Day, again, was kind of like the last renewal cycle post kind of cyclical challenges in the energy market. So I think you said it was good renewals. But can you maybe just add a little bit more color if the worst is now behind us, how that last renewal went? And then looking forward, it tells to me like 2018 is still going to be a transition year, but 2019, maybe, we'll get to the point where this can be the fastest-growing business? Or do how you feel about WoodMac, generally speaking?

好的。看來我期待會有更多資訊揭露。其次，或許可以暫時換成 WoodMac。史考特，我想你在開頭已經發表了一些評論，但我認為第四季度——而且我認為你在投資者日上再次強調了這一點——有點像是能源市場週期性挑戰之後的最後一個更新周期。所以我覺得你剛才說的是續約情況不錯。既然最糟糕的時期已經過去，能否再補充一些細節，說說上次續約的情況？展望未來，我覺得 2018 年仍將是過渡之年，但到了 2019 年，或許我們會達到這個產業成長最快的階段？或者，你對 WoodMac 的整體感覺如何？

Yes, thank you. And you got me substantially correctly in terms of the message at Investor Day. Let me tune it for you just a little bit. So there are -- it's typically the case with WoodMac that there are a lot of renewals in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. So the quarter we just went through and the quarter we're going through right now always carry a fair amount of meaning in terms of the progression of the subscriptions year-over-year. So you've heard the report about the fourth quarter, which was a positive quarter overall. And we're in the middle of the first quarter, which feels, I would say, substantially the same. There are some larger customers whose renewals are being negotiated right now. So we're moving through that. But you got me substantially correct from Investor Day in terms of as we round out 2017 and into 2018. And I want to emphasize that there are a lot of positive signals at Wood Mackenzie. Lee referenced one that we watch a lot, which is the progression of consulting revenues, which tend to be a leading indicator of our customers' appetite for everything that we can do. And then yes, you also heard me. I think that '19 will be even more removed from the effects of the commodity cycle that we saw in '14, '15, '16 and even into '17. '19 will just be 1 more year removed from that. And therefore, I do believe that in addition to all of the new product opportunities and the cross-sell opportunities, I believe that the price mechanism in '19 will be more available to us than it was certainly in the '15, '16, '17 time frame. And we're choosing to be thoughtful about how we use the price mechanism in '18 as well because we want to get these new products sold. We want to enhance the cross-sells.

是的，謝謝。就投資者日傳遞的訊息而言，你基本上理解正確。我幫你稍微調一下音。所以，WoodMac 的情況通常是，第四季和第一季會有很多續約。因此，我們剛剛經歷的季度和我們現在正在經歷的季度，對於訂閱量同比的變化都具有相當大的意義。你們都聽到了關於第四季的報告，總體而言，這是一個正面的季度。現在我們正處於第一季的中期，感覺上，這和之前基本上一樣。目前我們正在與一些大客戶協商續約事宜。所以我們正在推進這項工作。但就我們即將結束 2017 年並邁入 2018 年而言，你從投資者日中得出的結論基本上正確。我想強調的是，伍德麥肯錫公司有很多正面的訊號。Lee 提到了我們經常關注的一個指標，即諮詢收入的成長情況，這往往是衡量客戶對我們所能提供的所有服務的需求程度的領先指標。是的，你也聽到了。我認為 2019 年將更加遠離我們在 2014 年、2015 年、2016 年甚至 2017 年看到的商品週期的影響。2019年只是距離那一年又過了一年。因此，我相信，除了所有新產品機會和交叉銷售機會之外，2019 年的價格機制將比 2015 年、2016 年、2017 年期間更容易被我們利用。而且，我們在 2018 年也會認真考慮如何運用價格機制，因為我們希望這些新產品能夠賣出。我們希望加強交叉銷售。

And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

I wanted to know what percentage of Verisk insurance revenues are related to reinsurance clients? And how is that segment of insurance revenues doing?

我想知道Verisk保險收入中有多少百分比與再保險客戶相關？那麼，這部分保險收入表現如何呢？

Mark, you want to take that one on?

馬克，你想接下這個任務嗎？

Yes. So first of all, I think what we did experience, and we highlighted a few times in 2017, the reinsurance premiums, it was a very soft market, meaning reinsurers were under pressure. It was difficult for our customers. What that led to was some industry consolidation against -- across a couple of those more major reinsurers. And when 2 become 1, especially on our cat modeling side of the world, that did lose -- it did cause us to lose some revenue as a result of those mergers. So I'm not sure I have an exact answer for you. I would say that in the ISO, or industry-standard programs, insurers, as well as reinsurers, use it, the reinsurer piece rather modest. So I wouldn't call that material at all. But inside of our cat modeling business, that probably represents a rather substantial minority of the revenue, and that's where we experienced a little of that headwind back in 2011.

是的。首先，我認為我們確實經歷了，而且我們在 2017 年也多次強調過，再保險費市場非常疲軟，這意味著再保險公司面臨壓力。這給我們的客戶帶來了困難。這導致了行業整合，尤其是在幾家較大的再保險公司之間。當 2 變成 1 時，尤其是在我們貓咪模特兒領域，合併確實導致我們損失了一些收入。所以我不太確定我能給你一個確切的答案。我認為在 ISO 或行業標準程序中，保險公司和再保險公司都在使用它，其中再保險公司的使用量相當有限。所以我根本不會把那稱為材料。但在我們的貓咪模特兒業務中，這可能只佔收入的相當一部分，而這正是我們在 2011 年遇到一些阻力的地方。

When you said -- can I just add, Mark? When you said it's less than 10% of everything we do across insurance.

當你說——我能補充一句嗎，馬克？你說過，這只占我們保險業務總量的不到 10%。

Across everything, absolutely. I was trying to be a little specific.

絕對如此，涵蓋所有方面。我當時想說得更具體一點。

And your next question comes from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的戴維‧里德利-萊恩。

Sure. Just following up on some of the comments around WoodMac. Wondering if you could give us an update on the annual contract value trends that you saw in the fourth quarter.

當然。就 WoodMac 的一些評論做個補充說明。能否請您介紹一下第四季年度合約價值趨勢？

Well -- and thanks for the question, and that really was our comment before about the progression of the business overall. There is a cumulative effect of contract signings. As you know, WoodMac signs multi-year agreements, but you're seeing the progression in the annual contract values in the reported fourth quarter result, which as Lee pointed out, is substantially greater than the effect -- the overall outcome for all of 2017. So it has got progression over the course of 2017, and that is because of the effect of the renewals that we're signing in '17. So it's been a positive trend.

好的—謝謝你的提問，這確實是我們先前對公司整體發展的評論。合約簽訂會產生累積效應。如您所知，伍德麥肯錫公司簽訂的是多年期合同，但您在公佈的第四季度業績中看到的是年度合同價值的增長，正如李指出的那樣，這遠遠大於其影響——2017 年全年的總體結果。因此，它在 2017 年取得了進展，這是因為我們在 2017 年簽署的續約協議產生了影響。所以這是一個正面的趨勢。

And then at Investor Day, you mentioned, I believe, 8 multi-year agreements signed in the Financial Services segment. You, obviously, had another win -- a credit card win in the fourth quarter. Wondering if those contracts had started to yield revenue in the fourth quarter or if that is all to come in 2018.

然後在投資者日上，我記得您提到，金融服務領域簽署了 8 項多年協議。顯然，你又贏了一場——第四季信用卡贏了一場。想知道這些合約是否在第四季開始產生收入，還是說這些收入要到 2018 年才會出現。

Mostly to come in '18.

大部分將在2018年推出。

And your next question comes from the line of Arash Soleimani from KBW.

你的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Arash Soleimani 的詩句。

Just first question is, when you look at improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery, to what extent could that challenge Geomni's aerial imagery offering?

首先要問的是，隨著衛星影像解析度的提高，這會在多大程度上對 Geomni 的航空影像產品構成挑戰？

Right. We don't see any material risk of substitution in any intermediate period of time, and it's actually likely that it will never be a substitute. And the reason is that you are able to get a degree of precision in your image when you're imaging an object on the face of the earth from, say, 2,000 feet up as opposed to miles and miles up. Two of the major differences, one is geometric. So what you need to be able to do is to be able to observe three-dimensional structure in 3 dimensions. And to be able to do that, you have to image it both oblique -- orthogonally, but also obliquely. When you're miles and miles and miles away, it is very difficult to get an oblique view of anything. So that's the first point. And the second point has to deal with radiometry. Basically, any signal that you capture, which is a function of looking through the atmosphere, is going to have different properties than if you're not looking through miles and miles and miles of the atmosphere. So now satellites do have one benefit and that is that potentially you can image the same spot on the face of the earth a couple of times a day potentially with satellites. Now it's not as easy as that because you have to actually -- you actually have to change the commands for the satellite to cause it to image something specific, if it wasn't otherwise going to do that, and that's not necessarily inexpensive, but you do have the potential benefit of frequency. So we think there is a role for satellites, in that they can sort of help you with comprehensive global kinds of general laying the foundation of a set of observations. But in terms of the precision that we need to give the answers that we're giving to our customers, we don't see satellites as a substitute.

正確的。我們認為在任何中期內都不會出現實質的替代風險，而且實際上它很可能永遠不會成為替代品。原因在於，從例如 2000 英尺高空拍攝地球表面的物體，而不是從幾英里高空拍攝物體，這樣可以獲得一定程度的影像精度。兩大主要差異之一在於幾何形狀。所以你需要具備的能力是能夠觀察三維空間中的立體結構。要做到這一點，你必須從正交和傾斜兩個角度來想像它。當你身處千里之外時，很難獲得任何事物的斜視視角。這是第一點。第二點與輻射測量有關。基本上，你透過大氣層觀測到的任何訊號，其特性都會與你沒有穿過數英里厚的大氣層觀測到的訊號有所不同。所以現在衛星確實有一個好處，那就是理論上你可以用衛星一天之內對地球表面的同一個地方進行幾次成像。現在事情並沒有那麼簡單，因為你實際上必須改變衛星的指令，才能讓它拍攝特定的東西（如果它原本不會這樣做的話），而這並不一定便宜，但你確實有頻率方面的潛在優勢。所以我們認為衛星可以發揮作用，它們可以幫助你進行全面的全球性觀測，為一系列觀測奠定基礎。但就我們向客戶提供答案所需的精確度而言，我們認為衛星不能取代實體探測。

And maybe just a friendly addition, our solution set includes satellite, aerial, drone, and I'll call it, ground truth, your phones and other type of images. So we are comprehensive in solution.

另外，我們的解決方案集包括衛星影像、空拍影像、無人機影像，以及我稱之為「地面實況」的影像，也就是您的手機和其他類型的影像。所以我們的解決方案是全面的。

Okay. Great. And just quick numbers question. I know you mentioned the 21% to 23% tax rate. Should we still be using something slightly different for amortization?

好的。偉大的。還有一個簡單的數字問題。我知道你有提到21%到23%的稅率。我們是否應該繼續採用略有不同的攤銷方法？

I would recommend that you use the 21% for the amortization of intangibles.

我建議你使用 21% 作為無形資產攤銷率。

And your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

I want to ask the margin question again in a different way. So you mentioned doubling the training budgets and rewarding employees with the tax savings. That sounds to me like it rolls into OpEx, and so that would impact EBITDA. So just want to confirm that organic EBITDA includes these -- this extra spending.

我想換個方式再問一下利潤率的問題。所以你提到要將培訓預算增加一倍，並用節省的稅金獎勵員工。在我看來，這似乎會計入營運支出，因此會對 EBITDA 產生影響。所以我想確認一下，有機 EBITDA 是否包括這些——這些額外的支出。

That is correct. It does include those -- these extra categories of spending.

沒錯。它確實包括這些——這些額外的支出類別。

Okay. Great. And then I think, when you answered Hamzah's question earlier, the $90 million of savings, is that all going to be spent on this? Or are there other areas as well?

好的。偉大的。然後我想，當你之前回答哈姆札的問題時，提到的節省下來的 9000 萬美元，是不是都要花在這上面？或是有其他區域嗎？

I'm sorry. All -- what was it?

對不起。一切——那到底是什麼？

Your question is whether the full $90 million is being spent on the educational opportunities?

你的問題是，這9000萬美元是否全部用於了教育機會？

Oh, no. The way I would put it to you, Toni, is that the very vast majority of the tax benefit is available to our shareholders.

哦，不。東尼，我想跟你說的是，絕大部分稅收優惠都歸我們的股東所有。

In the form of buybacks?

以回購的形式嗎？

Well, we'll determine how we're going to deploy capital, but it is free cash flow that is available to invest on behalf of our shareholders, whether it's buybacks or M&A activity.

我們會決定如何部署資金，但這些資金是可用於代表股東進行投資的自由現金流，無論是股票回購或併購活動。

It will be deployed in the same process that we use for the capital we generate internally within the business, which is where do we see the best returns on -- returns for that capital across the range of internal investments, external investments and share repurchases.

我們將採用與公司內部資本運作相同的流程來部署這筆資金，也就是我們用來獲取最佳回報的途徑——包括內部投資、外部投資和股票回購等各種資本回報方式。

Let me try to summarize. I realize everybody is trying to put it all together really quickly. Let me try again. Lee, keep me honest. Our rate of organic revenue growth in the second half of '17 overall was 7-plus percent. We're happy to compete with that as our benchmark for 2018 overall. Full stop. The second statement is, we expect -- and that's an organic revenue statement, that's the first statement. The second statement is, we expect our rate of organic EBITDA growth to exceed our rate of organic revenue growth, and that is with all of those educational and wealth opportunities for our employees built into what we're talking about.

我來試著總結一下。我知道大家都在努力盡快把所有事情都安排妥當。我再試一次。李，讓我保持誠實。2017 年下半年，我們的有機收入成長率整體超過 7%。我們很高興能以此作為我們 2018 年的整體基準。句號。第二份聲明是，我們預期──這是一份有機收入聲明，這是第一份聲明。第二點是，我們預計我們的有機 EBITDA 成長率將超過我們的有機收入成長率，而且這還是在我們為員工提供的所有教育和財富機會都包含在我們所說的計劃之中的情況下。

And your next question comes from the line of Joseph Foresi with Cantor Fitzgerald.

你的下一個問題來自約瑟夫·福雷西和康托·菲茨杰拉德的對話。

I guess what we're wondering is what do you expect the reported margins to be in 2018, up, down or flat? And it sounded like, by your comments, I guess we're wondering how to start our model and maybe any order of magnitude around those. It sounded like, by your comments, that acquisitions could depend on -- or could determine where they end up, but we're really wondering about the reported margin.

我們想知道的是，您預計 2018 年的公佈利潤率會是上升、下降還是持平？聽你的評論，我猜我們是在思考如何建立模型，以及可能圍繞這些數值確定一個數量級。從你的評論來看，收購似乎取決於——或者說決定了收購的最終去向，但我們真正想知道的是報告的利潤率。

Yes. So Joseph, as we've indicated, we are focused on the organic margin. We expect that to expand. The impact of acquisitions is difficult to predict. We aren't making a prediction or a forward-looking statement as to what the reported impact is. I don't -- we wouldn't anticipate that, that is going to have a material impact on our overall margins, but it's something that we aren't providing any expectations for 2019 on at this point.

是的。所以約瑟夫，正如我們之前所說，我們專注於有機利潤。我們預計這一數字還會擴大。收購的影響難以預測。我們不會對報告的影響做出預測或前瞻性聲明。我不認為——我們預計這將會對我們的整體利潤率產生實質影響，但目前我們還沒有就 2019 年的利潤率做出任何預期。

Okay. And then you talked a little bit about some contracts that are moving around, and maybe some slowness in FS and energy in the beginning. I'm wondering, could you talk about the cadence of revenues and margins throughout 2018? And do you expect it to be linear? Anything that we should be aware of from contracts rolling on and off? Anything around that nature?

好的。然後您稍微談到了一些正在變動的合同，以及金融服務和能源產業初期可能出現的一些放緩。我想請您談談2018年全年的營收和利潤率變化？你認為它會是線性的嗎？合約的續約和終止有哪些需要注意的地方？類似性質的嗎？

Yes, let -- yes, let me come back to what I said upfront. We have thousands and thousands of subscription agreements, many of them multi-year. The report that I was providing upfront was that, as we look across all of those, virtually 100% of those relationships are remaining intact in 2018, and the vast majority of those relationships are showing year-over-year progression in growth and value. That's what's happening in our business in 2018.

是的，讓我——是的，讓我回到我一開始所說的內容。我們擁有成千上萬份訂閱協議，其中許多是多年期的。我事先提供的報告是，縱觀所有這些關係，幾乎 100% 的關係在 2018 年都保持完好，而且絕大多數關係在增長和價值方面都呈現出逐年進步的態勢。這就是2018年我們公司正在發生的事情。

And your next question comes from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

You've highlighted capital management discipline as the number one point of feedback from your top investors post your listening tour. Could you expand upon that a little bit in terms of how you expect capital allocation priorities to change going forward? Historically, they've been very focused on buyback and acquisitions. Are you going to toggle more toward buyback going forward?

在您的巡迴研究之後，您已將資本管理紀律列為頂級投資者回饋的第一點。您能否再詳細談談您預計未來資本配置優先事項將如何變化？從歷史上看，他們一直非常注重股票回購和收購。未來你們會更採用股票回購策略嗎？

Yes. We -- so thank you for noting what has been our practice, which is we've always been very comfortable with return -- and we lean into returning capital to shareholders, and we've also found the program of acquisition to be very productive over time. Hopefully, everybody had a chance to see our presentation at the most recent Investor Day, where you saw that, for both the largest deals that we've done over a 10-plus-year time period but also the small and medium ones that we've done, the rate of return on both of those has been in double digits, somewhat higher for, actually, the larger deals. But that whole program has been very productive for our shareholders. So we remain alert to the opportunities. At any given moment, we're going to take account of what are the conditions in the market. What is there that when you put it together with Verisk you actually get something special, which is different? Hopefully, you caught the reference in my remarks earlier to the fact that you put PowerAdvocate together with Wood Mackenzie, and you have a significant sale that would not have happened if we had not put those 2 companies together. So that's the logic behind the M&A program. But of course, we're also going to reference what are prices in the market. And we're going to be thoughtful about ultimately what is the rate of return that we expect for the capital that we invest? And so it's not -- so I think what you can expect from Verisk over long periods of time is a balanced approach, where I believe that it will be the case that it will make sense to return capital and it will make sense to deploy capital thoughtfully in the M&A program. And at any given moment, the balance will be a function of the real-time conditions. I -- hopefully, you've heard Lee say that we definitely expect to be returning capital to shareholders in 2018.

是的。所以，感謝您注意到我們一直以來的做法，那就是我們一直非常重視回報——我們傾向於向股東返還資本，而且我們也發現，隨著時間的推移，收購計劃非常有效。希望大家都有機會觀看我們在最近一次投資者日上的演示，你們可以看到，無論是我們在過去 10 多年裡完成的最大交易，還是我們完成的中小型交易，它們的收益率都達到了兩位數，實際上，較大交易的收益率還要更高一些。但整個專案對我們的股東來說非常有成效。因此，我們會時時刻刻關注各種機會。在任何特定時刻，我們都會考慮市場狀況。將它與 Verisk 結合起來，究竟能得到哪些特別之處，哪些方面是不同的？希望您能理解我之前話裡的意思，就是您把 PowerAdvocate 和 Wood Mackenzie 合併在一起，促成了一筆大額交易，如果沒有我們把這兩家公司合併在一起，這筆交易就不會發生。這就是併購計畫背後的邏輯。當然，我們也會參考市場上的價格。我們會認真思考，最終我們期望從投資中獲得的資本報酬率是多少？所以，我認為從長遠來看，你可以期待 Verisk 採取平衡的方法，我相信在併購計劃中，返還資本和深思熟慮地部署資本都是合理的。在任何特定時刻，平衡狀態將取決於即時情況。我希望你們都聽李說過，我們一定會在 2018 年向股東返還資本。

Understood. As a follow-up, could you update us on your joint venture with Total System Services, Argus and TSYS? And any extent and more broadly of Argus' business in the card issuer processing market in terms of joint ventures in particular?

明白了。作為後續跟進，您能否向我們介紹一下您與 Total System Services、Argus 和 TSYS 的合資企業的最新進展？Argus 在發卡機構處理市場，特別是合資企業方面的業務規模和範圍如何？

Right. So first of all, we're very pleased with where the TSYS relationship stands, and it is fully on course, exactly what we expected when the relationship was put together last year. And you're right. There are other processors out there in the world. And as you would imagine, we're in dialogue with them. And actually, we have not sort of named all the folks with whom we work even today. So that is a -- there are several companies in that category. We talked about TSYS because it was a large event. They're not the only company with whom we work today in that category. And I -- and we are definitely in pursuit of additional relationships in that category.

正確的。首先，我們對與 TSYS 的合作關係現狀非常滿意，一切都在按計劃進行，這正是我們去年建立合作關係時所期望的。你說得對。世界上還有其他處理器。正如你所料，我們正在與他們進行對話。事實上，直到今天，我們還沒有把所有與我們合作的人都列出來。所以，這類公司有很多。我們討論了TSYS，因為它是一場大型活動。他們並不是我們目前在該領域唯一合作的公司。我——我們肯定會繼續尋求建立更多此類關係。

And your next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gary Bisbee。

Let me -- I hate to do this, but I need to go back to the margins. So I think we all appreciate the focus on organic, but of course, we model to all-in, including the deals. And I guess I struggle to understand why it's so difficult to project the acquisition. So if we look at the Decision Analytics, nearly 300 basis point margin decline in 2017 and a lot larger decline in Q4, specifically. Can you break out for us, looking backwards, how much of that was deal costs and short-term integration payments that maybe somewhat less likely to recur versus just dilution from bringing on revenue that had an initial lower margin attached to it that will likely persist until you annualize these? And a second part of the question is, how material -- maybe the answer is it's not, but the actual integration spending that you're doing, as you've discussed, a key to a lot of these deals is linking them into your existing systems and offering.

讓我——我很不願意這樣做，但我需要回到邊緣地帶。所以我覺得我們都很欣賞對有機產品的關注，但當然，我們的模式是全方位的，包括交易。我很難理解為什麼預測收購如此困難。因此，如果我們看一下決策分析，就會發現 2017 年利潤率下降了近 300 個基點，尤其是在第四季度，下降幅度更大。回顧過去，您能否為我們分析一下，其中有多少是交易成本和短期整合費用（這些費用可能不太容易再次發生），又有多少僅僅是由於引入初始利潤率較低的收入而導致的利潤稀釋（這種情況可能會持續到您將這些費用年化為止）？問題的第二部分是，這有多重要——也許答案是否定的，但正如你所討論的，你實際進行的整合支出，很多這類交易的關鍵在於將它們與你現有的系統和產品聯繫起來。

So -- yes, yes. Thank you for the question. Let me take the second part of that and then bump it over to Lee. Integration costs are really not material. And this is an enduring statement about Verisk. And the reason is, if you think about the nature of the integration that needs to be achieved, back to kind of the 3 buckets that I gave you upfront, when you're talking about product organizations, companies that have unique products that are now a part of Verisk, there are 2 ways that we link them to us. One of them is getting them on our sales platform, and that integration cost is about nothing. And then the other form of integration is, if and when we integrate the solution, so we have a preexisting encoded solution and the acquired company has an encoded solution, and now you're going to find a way to blend code in order to present a new integrated solution into the marketplace. And those are moment in time. Generally, those will be accomplished relatively quickly. And in many ways, you're leveraging the development budgets you've already got. It's now you're just thinking a different set of developments because you've now got this bigger code base and you have to bring it all together. So the literal integration is not so great. There's a different part of your question, and here now, I'll turn it over to Lee for his comment, but yes, there are deal costs, for sure. And so when you do deals in the moment, there's all the lawyers and et cetera that have to get paid in order to bring the thing together. So there are definitely deal costs, but the literal tying together of Verisk and the company that we just bought, in an operational sense, generally is not material.

所以——是的，是的。謝謝你的提問。讓我來處理第二部分，然後把它轉交給李。整合成本其實不重要。這是對 Verisk 的一個持久評價。原因在於，如果你想想需要實現的整合的性質，回到我之前提到的三個類別，當你談到產品組織，也就是那些擁有獨特產品、現在已成為 Verisk 一部分的公司時，我們有兩種方式將它們與我們連接起來。其中一項是將它們連接到我們的銷售平台，而這項整合成本幾乎為零。另一種整合方式是，當我們整合解決方案時，假設我們有一個預先存在的編碼解決方案，被收購的公司也有一個編碼解決方案，現在你需要找到一種方法來融合程式碼，以便向市場推出一個新的整合解決方案。那隻是歷史長河中的一瞬。一般來說，這些事情都能比較快完成。在很多方面，你都在充分利用現有的開發預算。現在你需要考慮的是另一套不同的開發方案，因為你現在擁有更大的程式碼庫，你必須將所有內容整合在一起。所以，字面上的整合效果並不理想。你的問題還有另一部分，現在我把它交給 Lee 來評論，但沒錯，交易肯定會有成本。所以，當你在交易過程中進行談判時，所有律師等等都需要得到報酬才能促成交易。因此，交易肯定會產生一些成本，但從營運角度來看，將 Verisk 和我們剛剛收購的公司真正結合起來，通常並不重要。

And so Gary, I think the thing that factors into this is all of the integration upfront costs that we're dealing with that tend to be onetime in nature are an element of this, but there are also two other elements. One is, generally, these are earlier-stage companies, and so they have ability to predict immediately in the near term that -- their immediate performance as we're going through that integration as well as across the number of acquisitions that we have. I think it creates noise that we would suggest is not as relevant to our overall organic performance. And we'd like to focus on that as opposed to trying to predict what that relatively small impact is of those acquisitions. We -- as I indicated, we think that the overall focus should be on the capital efficiency and the returns from that business, and then what they will be able to ultimately contribute on an organic basis when they get folded into the business. So happy to talk more about that with you separately.

所以，Gary，我認為影響這一點的因素是我們正在處理的所有前期整合成本，這些成本通常是一次性的，這是其中一個因素，但還有另外兩個因素。一方面，這些公司通常處於早期階段，因此他們有能力在短期內立即預測——在我們進行整合以及我們進行多次收購的過程中，他們的直接表現。我認為它產生的噪音與我們整體的自然成長表現關係不大。我們更願意關注這一點，而不是試圖預測這些收購帶來的相對較小的影響。正如我之前所說，我們認為整體重點應該放在資本效率和該業務的回報上，以及當它們被併入業務後，最終能夠以有機方式做出的貢獻。非常樂意單獨和你詳細討論這個問題。

Yes, I mean, I think the issue, as you probably heard in your listening tour, is you have a business that's so heavily subscription, people believe you should have extreme visibility relative to a lot of other companies. And the reality of it is, it's been extremely difficult to predict your quarter-to-quarter financial performance. This kind of inability to really be helpful on the forward-looking numbers, I think, it's a big reason why. But I'm sure you've heard that, and I'm sure you're thinking about ways to improve it. So I appreciate the color.

是的，我的意思是，我認為問題在於，正如你可能在巡迴聽證會上聽到的那樣，你的業務非常依賴訂閱，人們認為你應該比許多其他公司擁有極高的曝光度。而現實情況是，預測每季的財務表現一直非常困難。我認為，這種無法對未來數據提供真正幫助的情況，是造成這種情況的重要原因。但我相信你一定聽過這一點，也肯定你在思考如何改進它。我很喜歡這個顏色。

And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I know it's late. I've got one quick question. What should we be modeling for interest expense in 2018?

我知道現在很晚了。我有個問題想問一下。我們該如何模擬 2018 年的利息支出？

Yes. So Jeff, we've specifically not provided guidance around that. I don't think it's going to move materially. But as we're thinking about debt levels, and our targets aside, I just didn't want to set a specific expectation. I think you can look at the balances and at the rate historically, I don't think it will vary significantly.

是的。所以傑夫，我們特意沒有就此提供任何指導。我認為它不會發生實質的變化。但當我們考慮債務水平以及我們的目標時，我不想設定具體的預期。我認為你可以看看餘額和歷史匯率，我認為它不會有太大變化。

And I guess the lever from the PowerAdvocate acquisition, that's really -- is that on the balance sheet at the end of the year? Or has that not been on the balance sheet yet?

我猜想，收購 PowerAdvocate 帶來的槓桿效應，真的——會在年底的資產負債表上反映出來嗎？或者說，這部分內容還沒有列入資產負債表？

Yes -- no, it is on the balance sheet. We funded that substantially with debt.

是的——不，它列在資產負債表上。我們主要透過舉債來籌集資金。

And your final question comes from the line of Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust.

最後一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Andrew Jeffrey。

You've talked about a lot of newer, I would say, growth drivers relative to Verisk's historical businesses. I haven't heard a mention of cyber. And I wonder how you think about cyber risk? And whether there are some organic opportunities to grow in cyber or whether M&A is something you're looking at?

您談到了很多相對於 Verisk 歷史業務而言更新的成長驅動因素。我沒聽說過網路安全方面的事情。我想知道您如何看待網路風險？那麼，網路安全領域是否存在一些自然成長的機會，或者您正在考慮併購？

Yes. Thanks for the question, and I'll start -- and Mark, if you want to jump in. Cyber is very definitely a part of what we do today. Those of you who are familiar with the P&C insurance industry may be aware that sort of, interestingly, the cyber line -- for all the talk about cyber risk, et cetera, in the world, the cyber line is actually not that highly expressed so far. It's actually -- it's a relatively modest line of insurance. It gets a lot more discussion than it actually gets premium dollars at the moment. We expect cyber will continue to grow as a line, and we already provide modeling of the cyber line, and we have customers for those models. So we're engaged. We're already in that. The 2 interesting questions for us, and Mark, maybe, please feel free to jump in here. Interesting question number one is, how rapidly will the cyber line grow as an insurance offering? But then number two, all the other things that we could potentially do to help operating companies with cyber exposures even beyond helping to manage the insurance policies. So I don't know. Mark, do you want to add anything to that?

是的。謝謝你的提問，我先來——馬克，如果你想加入的話。網路安全無疑是我們當今工作的重要組成部分。熟悉財產和意外保險行業的人可能會注意到，有趣的是，儘管全世界都在談論網路風險等等，但網路保險實際上到目前為止還沒有得到充分的重視。實際上，這是一種相對溫和的保險產品。目前，它獲得的討論遠比實際獲得的真金白銀多得多。我們預計網路安全產品線將繼續成長，我們已經提供網路安全產品線的模型，並且我們已經有這些模型的客戶。我們訂婚了。我們已經身處其中了。這兩個問題我們很有興趣，馬克，或許你也可以隨時發表一下看法。第一個有趣的問題是，網路保險作為一種保險產品，其成長速度會有多快？但第二點，除了幫助管理保險單之外，我們還可以做很多其他事情來幫助營運公司應對網路風險。所以我也不知道。馬克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

So we have been kind of the industry standard as it relates to the coverage language in those policies. And I think we have a lot of customers we highlighted at the Investor Day, where I think the more promising future growth is going to be is inside of the models. As people try to grow, and for the most part, underwrite some of that cyber, some of the models, which we historically called cat models, are now being used for, what I'll refer to as more of the liability side. And cyber is very prominent there. We've made some great progress in working inside of the folks in the London market as well as inside of the United States insurers. And that will be a growth driver for us. I would tell you that it's probably more marginal in '18, but it will and should kick up in the future years.

因此，就這些保單的承保範圍措辭而言，我們一直處於行業標準。我認為我們在投資者日上重點介紹了許多客戶，我認為未來更有發展前景的成長點就在模型領域。隨著人們努力發展，並且在很大程度上承擔一些網路安全風險，一些我們過去稱之為「貓模型」的模型現在被用於我所說的更多責任方面。網路技術在那裡非常突出。我們在與倫敦市場人士以及美國保險公司內部合作方面取得了一些重大進展。這將成為我們發展的驅動力。我認為2018年這種情況可能比較輕微，但未來幾年肯定會而且應該會加劇。

Okay. Well, I think we're at the end of the questions. Thank you all very much for enjoying us -- joining us. And we've enjoyed the conversation, look forward to being with you again to report out the next quarter. And Lee will be doing a lot of follow-up with many, many of you. So let's continue to have a dialogue, and thank you very much for your time today.

好的。好了，我想我們已經問完了所有問題。非常感謝大家的參與與陪伴。我們很享受這次交流，期待下次再與您見面，報告下一季的情況。李先生將會與你們中的許多人進行後續溝通。那麼，讓我們繼續對話，非常感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。