Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Analytics First Quarter 2017 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's EVP of Investor Relations, Mr. David Cohen. Mr. Cohen, please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Verisk Analytics 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。此時此刻，我謹將電話轉交給 Verisk 的投資人關係執行副總裁 David Cohen 先生，由他來致開幕詞和介紹。科恩先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Teresa, and good day to everyone. We appreciate your joining us today for a discussion of our first quarter 2017 financial results. With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer; and Eva Huston, Chief Financial Officer. Following comments by Scott, Mark and Eva highlighting some key points about our strategic priorities and financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions.

謝謝你，特蕾莎，祝大家今天愉快。感謝您今天蒞臨本次會議，與我們共同探討2017年第一季的財務表現。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有：董事長、總裁兼執行長 Scott Stephenson；營運長 Mark Anquillare；以及財務長 Eva Huston。在 Scott、Mark 和 Eva 就我們的策略重點和財務表現發表了一些重要評論之後，我們將開放提問環節。

Unless stated otherwise, all results we discuss today will reflect continuing operations. The earnings release referenced on this call as well as the associated 10-Q can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. The earnings release contains reconciliations of several non-GAAP measures, which we'll reference on today's call. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial-in. Finally, as set forth in more detail in yesterday's earnings release, today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is summarized at the end of our press release as well as contained in our recent SEC filings.

除非另有說明，我們今天討論的所有業績均反映的是持續經營業務。本次電話會議中提到的收益報告以及相關的 10-Q 表格可以在我們網站 verisk.com 的投資者關係部分找到。獲利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中。獲利報告中包含幾個非GAAP指標的調節表，我們將在今天的電話會議上提及這些指標。本次通話的錄音將在我們的網站上保留 30 天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。最後，正如昨天發布的收益報告中更詳細闡述的那樣，今天的電話會議可能包含有關 Verisk 未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際表現可能與我們今天所作的評論有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的資訊已在本新聞稿末尾進行了總結，並包含在我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Now I will turn the call over to Scott Stephenson.

現在我將把電話交給史考特史蒂芬森。

Thanks, David. Good morning, everybody. Yesterday, we reported an unusual quarter, with a number of items that we don't expect to recur that affected us at a moment in time. We are comfortable that growth will be better the rest of the year and into 2018. For the full year of 2017, we continue to expect combined insurance and financial services revenue to grow about in line with the historical trend. Reported revenue grew 2% for the quarter. Organic constant currency growth was 2.5%. Profitability remained strong, with total EBITDA margins around 49%. We chose to grow expenses at a measured pace in the quarter to support future growth. Diluted adjusted EPS declined about 1% as a result of unusual conditions influencing revenue growth. In spite of this, free cash flow in the quarter was up about 12%. Revenue growth was muted because of onetime true-up revenue in Decision Analytics in 2016, several contract completions at Argus and the cycling through of WoodMac contracts that were signed in the depth of the oil commodity downcycle. Looking ahead, our confidence is based on new contracts and new solutions, layered on top of the stability our subscription revenue provides. Specifically, we expect new sources of insurance revenue growth, several new Argus contracts where the signings slipped out of the first quarter and moderating effects of the commodity and currency headwinds as we move through 2017. We were pleased that in our resource businesses in the quarter, we saw a healthy and encouraging growth in contract signings for subscription products. Our teams are working hard on all the new solutions in which we are investing and long-term opportunities remain robust. We are focusing on both acquiring talent and shaping our workforce so that it reflects the right mix of capabilities to run our business. We are also investing in our new solution opportunities. Because we're confident in the near- and the long-term revenue outlooks, continuing to invest in our people and innovation is the prudent course of action. We were pleased to continue repurchasing our shares through our longstanding program, an indication of our enduring confidence in our business. We bought 1.3 million shares for a total return of capital of $104 million in the quarter. At March 31, 2017, we had $532 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. With leverage below our 2.5x reference level, we have plenty of capacity to make strategically relevant acquisitions as well as additional repurchases.

謝謝你，大衛。各位早安。昨天，我們公佈了一個不同尋常的季度業績，其中包含一些我們預計不會再次發生的項目，這些項目在一段時間內對我們造成了影響。我們有信心，今年剩餘時間以及2018年的成長情況會更好。我們預計 2017 年全年保險和金融服務總收入將與歷史趨勢基本保持一致。本季報告營收成長2%。有機成長率（以固定匯率計算）為 2.5%。獲利能力依然強勁，EBITDA 總利潤率約 49%。為了支持未來的成長，我們選擇在本季以穩健的速度增加支出。受影響收入成長的異常情況影響，稀釋調整後每股盈餘下降約 1%。儘管如此，該季度的自由現金流仍增加了約 12%。由於 2016 年決策分析業務的一次性調整收入、Argus 的幾份合約完成以及在石油商品低迷期簽署的 WoodMac 合約的周期性變化，收入增長較為緩慢。展望未來，我們的信心源自於新的合約和新的解決方案，而這些又建立在我們訂閱收入所提供的穩定性之上。具體而言，我們預計保險收入成長將出現新的來源，Argus 的幾份新合約也將簽署，這些合約的簽署時間推遲到了第一季度，而且隨著我們進入 2017 年，大宗商品和貨幣逆風的影響也將有所緩和。我們很高興地看到，本季我們的資源業務在訂閱產品合約簽約方面實現了健康且令人鼓舞的成長。我們的團隊正在努力開發我們投資的所有新解決方案，長期發展機會仍然強勁。我們正致力於招攬人才並塑造我們的員工隊伍，使其具備經營業務所需的各種能力。我們也在投資新的解決方案機會。由於我們對近期和長期的收入前景充滿信心，因此繼續投資於我們的員工和創新是明智之舉。我們很高興能夠透過我們長期實施的回購計劃繼續回購我們的股份，這表明我們對自己的業務始終充滿信心。本季我們購入了 130 萬股股票，總資本回報額為 1.04 億美元。截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權額度還剩 5.32 億美元。由於槓桿率低於我們 2.5 倍的參考水平，我們有足夠的能力進行具有戰略意義的收購以及額外的回購。

During the quarter, we spent $76 million on acquisitions, bringing trailing 4-quarter total acquisition spend to $150 million. Since last quarter's earnings call, we closed the acquisition of Fintellix, further extending Argus' international end markets and enhancing our capabilities in global bank regulatory compliance. The acquisition of Fintellix positions Argus to expand our data hosting and regulatory platforms and better address the increasingly complex needs of our clients. We will continue to focus on M&A that helps drive our strategy and embodies the Verisk distinctives. At Investor Day in December, we began telling you about 20 internal investment opportunities we are funding to drive valuable solutions for our customers and growth for our company. These are promising new solutions, some of which have the potential to contribute significantly over a 5-year time horizon. These major initiatives have their own project champions, at least one anchor customer and dedicated teams. They involve machine learning, telematics, the Internet of things, high-resolution imagery, predictive fraud modeling, claims automation, digital marketing and alternative energy analytics.

本季度，我們在收購方面花費了 7,600 萬美元，使過去四個季度的總收購支出達到 1.5 億美元。自從上一季財報電話會議以來，我們完成了對 Fintellix 的收購，進一步拓展了 Argus 的國際終端市場，並增強了我們在全球銀行監管合規方面的能力。收購 Fintellix 使 Argus 能夠擴展我們的資料託管和監管平台，更好地滿足客戶日益複雜的需求。我們將繼續專注於有助於推動我們策略並體現 Verisk 獨特性的併購活動。在 12 月的投資者日上，我們開始向大家介紹我們正在投資的 20 個內部投資機會，這些投資旨在為我們的客戶提供有價值的解決方案，並推動公司的發展。這些都是很有前景的新解決方案，其中一些方案有可能在 5 年內做出重大貢獻。這些重大措施都有自己的專案負責人、至少一個核心客戶和專門的團隊。它們涉及機器學習、遠端資訊處理、物聯網、高解析度影像、預測性詐欺建模、理賠自動化、數位行銷和替代能源分析。

While the revenues in most cases will be slower to ramp up, the investments are already under way. We have identified these opportunities, which cross all our key vertical end markets as likely to generate attractive returns over the 5-year planning horizon. We intend to move with speed and focus on these compelling innovation opportunities. We're running our game plan of innovation driving organic revenue, which will result in the delivery of free cash flow growth. Our businesses are strongly aligned with the Verisk distinctives of: one, unique data assets; two, deep domain expertise; three, first-to-market innovations; and four, deep integration into our customer workflows. With these come network effects, scale economies and a large percentage of subscription revenue. From this enduring foundation of strength, we are highly confident in the ability of our people to execute our strategy and plans, which ultimately relate to serving and adding value for our customers. You should expect our results to ramp as we move through this year and we are even more encouraged as we look to 2018 and beyond. So with that, I'm going to turn the call over now to Mark for some additional comments.

雖然大多數情況下收入成長速度會比較慢，但投資已經開始。我們已經確定了這些機會，這些機會涵蓋我們所有主要的垂直終端市場，預計在 5 年規劃期內產生可觀的回報。我們打算加快步伐，專注於這些引人注目的創新機會。我們正在實施以創新驅動有機收入成長的策略計劃，這將帶來自由現金流的成長。我們的業務與 Verisk 的獨特優勢高度契合：一、獨特的資料資產；二、深厚的領域專業知識；三、率先上市的創新；四、與客戶工作流程的深度整合。隨之而來的是網路效應、規模經濟和高比例的訂閱收入。基於這個堅實的基礎，我們對員工執行策略和計劃的能力充滿信心，這些策略和計劃最終都與服務和為客戶創造價值有關。隨著今年的推進，我們的業績有望逐步提升，展望 2018 年及以後，我們更有信心取得更好的成績。那麼，接下來我將把電話交給馬克，請他補充一些看法。

Thank you, Scott. Across our businesses, which serve the property and casualty insurance industry, we have several key themes, including vertical big data, industry automation and digital engagement. While the headline growth across our insurance businesses was a bit below trend during the quarter, both the underlying performance and outlook for the rest of the year and beyond is encouraging. First, growth in the quarter is reduced by last year's true-up revenue, which did not recur in 2017. Second and most important, the pricing environment and the competitive landscape remain consistent with the past. Third, as we look at the core solutions in each of our businesses, they're growing well. For example, in our catastrophe modeling business, the dynamics in the reinsurance industry continue to be challenging. That has affected the cap on in consulting businesses. However, as we look at the majority of what we do there, extreme event modeling, we are growing in the high single digits as we continue to take market share. Big data methods integrated into our platform are very compelling to the industry.

謝謝你，斯科特。在我們服務於財產和意外保險行業的各項業務中，我們有幾個關鍵主題，包括垂直大數據、行業自動化和數位化互動。雖然本季我們保險業務的整體成長略低於預期，但無論是基本面表現還是今年剩餘時間及以後的前景都令人鼓舞。首先，本季的成長被去年同期的調整收入所抵消，而這部分收入在 2017 年並沒有再次出現。其次，也是最重要的一點，定價環境和競爭格局與過去保持一致。第三，當我們審視我們各項業務的核心解決方案時，它們都發展得很好。例如，在我們的災害建模業務中，再保險產業的動態變化仍然充滿挑戰。這影響了諮詢業務的上限。然而，當我們審視我們在那裡所做的大部分工作——極端事件建模時，我們正以接近兩位數的速度成長，並不斷擴大市場份額。大數據方法整合到我們的平台中，對業界來說極具吸引力。

Looking at our claims businesses. Our 2 largest solutions related to repair cost estimating continue to grow in the mid- to high single digits. This is a good example of continuing industry automation. And of course, fraud is evergreen, helping our antifraud-related solutions continue to grow nicely. As a final example, in our personal lines underwriting business, where our solutions are well-established but still newer to the market than some of our competitors, we're making good progress in innovating and meeting market share. We're applying big data methods, which we expect will be a key differentiator even as we help our customers digitally engage more effectively with their customers.

審視我們的理賠業務。我們與維修成本估算相關的兩大解決方案持續維持中高個位數的成長。這是工業自動化持續發展的典型例子。當然，詐欺問題一直存在，這有助於我們的反詐騙解決方案持續良好發展。最後舉個例子，在我們的個人保險承保業務中，雖然我們的解決方案已經相當成熟，但與一些競爭對手相比，它仍然是市場上的新事物，我們在創新和滿足市場份額方面取得了良好的進展。我們正在應用大數據方法，我們預計這將成為我們的關鍵差異化優勢，同時幫助我們的客戶以數位化方式更有效地與他們的客戶互動。

Finally, in our important heritage ISO business, our normal course price increases went into effect in January and we're pleased with the uptake of our newer solutions. While many of you may think of the ISO solutions business as a steady, stable grower, which it is, we're really excited with the addition of new people who are helping us push forward with innovative solutions. These are allowing us to address parts of the end market where we haven't historically served, but where we see a lot of opportunity to help our customers solve tough problems they face. As we look at some of the newer things we're doing, including expanding into international markets and with the recent acquisition, there's a lot, which is very encouraging. With that, let me turn it over to Eva to cover our financial results in more detail.

最後，在我們重要的傳統 ISO 業務中，我們正常的課程價格上漲已於 1 月生效，我們對新解決方案的接受度感到滿意。雖然你們中的許多人可能認為 ISO 解決方案業務是一個穩定成長的行業（事實的確如此），但我們非常高興有新人加入我們，幫助我們推進創新解決方案。這些舉措使我們能夠進入我們過去從未涉足的終端市場領域，但我們在這些領域看到了許多機會，可以幫助我們的客戶解決他們面臨的難題。當我們審視我們正在做的一些新事情時，包括拓展國際市場以及最近的收購，有很多令人鼓舞的事情發生。接下來，我將把發言權交給伊娃，讓她更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Mark. In the first quarter, we grew revenue and EBITDA on a comparable basis to the prior year while also investing in solutions with meaningful long-term potential revenue streams. Our growth in the quarter was below trend as several headwinds affected us at the same time, consistent with our comments on our fourth quarter call and in presentations earlier this year. Currency hurt revenue results in the quarter by about $7.5 million. As we move through the year, we're confident that revenues will improve. Revenue in the quarter grew 2%. Organic constant currency revenue grew 2.5% and 3.4%, excluding the prior year true-up revenue. We have included a new table in the press release to help you see the acquisition and FX results for each of our revenue lines more clearly. As a reminder, organic constant currency growth excludes the contribution from recent acquisitions and reflects current period exchange rates applied to prior period revenue. Total acquired revenue in the quarter was $5.3 million.

謝謝你，馬克。第一季度，我們在與上年同期的基礎上實現了營收和 EBITDA 的成長，同時也投資於具有有意義的長期潛在收入來源的解決方案。本季我們的成長低於預期，因為多個不利因素同時影響了我們，這與我們在今年第四季電話會議和簡報中的評論一致。匯率波動導致本季營收減少約 750 萬美元。隨著年內推進，我們有信心營收將會改善。本季營收成長2%。有機收入以固定匯率計算成長 2.5%，若不計入上年同期調整收入，則成長 3.4%。我們在新聞稿中新增了一個表格，以幫助您更清楚地了解我們各項收入來源的收購和外匯表現。需要提醒的是，有機固定匯率成長不包括近期收購的貢獻，並且反映了對前期收入應用的當期匯率。本季收購總收入為 530 萬美元。

Within the Decision Analytics segment, revenue grew 0.1%. Organic constant currency revenue growth was 1.5%. This quarter, insurance was the fastest-growing vertical and also the largest contributor of dollars to growth. Underlying the results are the continued resilience in our insurance business and some timing in our financial services revenue growth. Decision Analytics insurance revenue grew 4.1% in the quarter. Last year, it had around $4 million of onetime true up revenue and adjusting for this, organic constant currency revenue growth was 6.5%. Growth was led by strong performance in underwriting solutions. Claims analytics, loss quantification and catastrophe modeling solutions also contributed to growth in the quarter. We've spoken about reinsurance having an impact in some areas on -- in terms of growth, but we are pleased that those trends aren't worsening and that the underlying growth in our subscription solutions and cap modeling remains very good, as Mark mentioned.

在決策分析領域，收入成長了0.1%。有機收入（以固定匯率計算）成長1.5%。本季度，保險業是成長最快的垂直產業，也是對成長貢獻最大的產業。業績的根本原因在於我們保險業務的持續韌性以及金融服務收入成長的時效性。決策分析保險收入本季成長了 4.1%。去年，該公司有約 400 萬美元的一次性調整收入，扣除這部分收入後，有機固定匯率收入成長率為 6.5%。核保解決方案業務的強勁表現帶動了成長。理賠分析、損失量化和災害建模解決方案也為本季的成長做出了貢獻。我們已經討論過再保險在某些領域對成長的影響，但我們很高興這些趨勢沒有惡化，而且正如馬克提到的那樣，我們訂閱解決方案和上限模型的潛在增長仍然非常好。

Customer retention remains very high and we are confident in our ability to continue to deliver growth. Energy and specialized markets category revenue declined 5.9% in the quarter. On an organic constant currency basis, revenue declined 2.1%. While continued energy end-market headwinds and the British pound impacted revenue in the quarter, as expected, both of those trends have started to improve. The benefits will be over time, given the multiyear subscription nature of the majority of that business. The WoodMac team continues to do a great job managing the business to outstanding relative performance. The category revenue growth was reduced also by a decline in environmental health and safety solutions due to lower demand following the late 2015 completion of GHS standard-related implementation.

客戶留存率仍然非常高，我們有信心繼續實現成長。本季能源和專業市場類別的收入下降了 5.9%。以固定匯率計算，收入下降了 2.1%。儘管能源終端市場持續的逆風和英鎊貶值對本季的收入造成了影響，但正如預期的那樣，這兩個趨勢都已開始好轉。鑑於該行業大部分業務都採用多年訂閱模式，其益處將隨著時間的推移而顯現。WoodMac團隊在業務管理方面繼續表現出色，並取得了優異的相對表現。由於 2015 年底 GHS 標準相關實施完成後需求下降，環境健康與安全解決方案的需求也隨之下降，導致此類別收入成長減少。

Financial services revenue declined 0.5% in the quarter. The recent acquisition of Fintellix closed on March 31 and is contributing to revenue in the second quarter. Strong growth in media effectiveness and good growth in core banking solutions were offset by a couple of long-term government customers and a noncore customer who concluded their contracts in the fourth quarter. Those combined contracts contributed about $11 million for the full year 2016. Additionally, we typically see a seasonal step down after Q4, which did occur this year as well. We remain optimistic about delivering growth in 2017 and building on what is a great dataset and analytic capability.

本季金融服務收入下降了0.5%。對 Fintellix 的最新收購於 3 月 31 日完成，並正在為第二季的收入做出貢獻。媒體效果的強勁成長和核心銀行解決方案的良好成長被幾位長期政府客戶和一位非核心客戶在第四季度終止合約所抵消。這些合約在 2016 年全年貢獻了約 1,100 萬美元。此外，我們通常會在第四季之後看到季節性下滑，今年也出現了這種情況。我們對 2017 年實現成長保持樂觀，並將繼續利用我們現有的強大數據集和分析能力。

Risk Assessment revenue grew 5.4% in the quarter. Organic constant currency revenue growth was 4.2%. This stable growth demonstrates the value to our longstanding insurance customers as well as contributions of new solutions that are in an early stages and the recent acquisitions. Industry-standard insurance programs revenue grew 5.9%, reflecting our 2017 invoices and continued contribution from newer solutions such as predictive models and electronic rating content. While still early, we are encouraged by the strong efforts to drive new product development in this part of the business. Our property-specific rating and underwriting information revenue increased 3.5% in the quarter. Growth was led by subscription revenues. We have some components of this line that are purchased transactionally, which is where we are seeing more variation.

風險評估業務收入本季成長5.4%。有機收入（以固定匯率計算）成長4.2%。這種穩定的成長反映了我們對長期保險客戶的價值，以及處於早期階段的新解決方案和近期收購所帶來的貢獻。行業標準保險計劃收入增長了 5.9%，反映了我們 2017 年的發票以及預測模型和電子評級內容等新解決方案的持續貢獻。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們對該公司在該業務領域大力推動新產品開發的努力感到鼓舞。本季度，我們的特定財產評級和承保資訊收入成長了 3.5%。訂閱收入是成長的主要驅動力。該系列產品中有些組件是透過交易購買的，因此我們看到這些組件的差異比較大。

EBITDA decreased 1.1% in the quarter to $246 million. The reported decline was a result of timing of revenue related to operating expenses, legal and acquisition costs, and the prior year true-up revenue in Decision Analytics insurance that occurred in the quarter. The combined cost of revenue and SG&A increased 5.9% or $15 million in the quarter. The increase was just 3.3% on an organic basis as we continue to manage expenses. EBITDA margins as reported were 48.9%. Margins were reduced by about 80 basis points due to acquisitions and about 60 basis points due to legal and transaction fees in the quarter. Total acquired revenue -- sorry, total acquired EBITDA in the quarter was breakeven. Acquisitions that we are doing are close to the core with well-defined paths to top line growth and margin expansion. Margins were also impacted in the quarter by our decision to grow expenses to support a multiyear view of revenue expectations as well as investment opportunities we've been discussing with you.

本季 EBITDA 下降 1.1% 至 2.46 億美元。據報道，收入下降是由於與營運費用、法律和收購成本相關的收入時間安排，以及本季發生的決策分析保險上一年調整收入所致。本季營業收入及銷售、管理及行政費用合計成長 5.9%，即 1,500 萬美元。由於我們繼續控制支出，自然成長率僅為 3.3%。報告顯示，EBITDA利潤率為48.9%。本季度，由於收購，利潤率下降了約 80 個基點；由於法律和交易費用，利潤率下降了約 60 個基點。總收購收入－抱歉，本季總收購 EBITDA 為損益兩平。我們進行的收購都與核心業務密切相關，並有明確的途徑實現營收成長和利潤率擴張。本季利潤率也受到了影響，因為我們決定增加支出，以支持我們對未來幾年收入的預期以及我們一直在與您討論的投資機會。

Margins by segment were affected by rebalancing of our technology resources to reflect internal priorities. As our Decision Analytics businesses expand the data sources they own and that serve as the foundation for their solutions, our data storage needs are growing.

為反映內部優先事項，我們重新調整了技術資源，這影響了各業務板塊的利潤率。隨著我們的決策分析業務不斷擴展其擁有的資料來源（這些資料來源是其解決方案的基礎），我們的資料儲存需求也在成長。

Reported interest expense was $28 million in the quarter. Total debt was $2.3 billion at March 31, 2017. Our leverage at the end of the first quarter was 2.2x, below our 2.5x reference level. Our reported effective tax rate in the quarter was 32.5%. Adjusted net income in Q1 decreased 1.6% to $125 million. The average diluted share count was 170.2 million in the quarter and we bought about 1.3 million shares in the quarter at an average price of $81.24. Our repurchase program has been successful to date, generating annualized IRRs above our cost of capital. On March 31, 2017, our diluted share count was 169.4 million shares. Adjusted EPS, on a fully diluted basis, was $0.74 in the quarter, a decrease of 1.3%. Diluted adjusted EPS from continuing operations decreased because the quarter's unusually modest revenue growth was more than offset by a higher tax rate and currency effects. Net cash provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $318 million for the 3 months ended March 31, 2017, an increase of 12.8%.

本季度報告的利息支出為2800萬美元。截至2017年3月31日，總負債為23億美元。第一季末，我們的槓桿率為 2.2 倍，低於我們 2.5 倍的參考水準。本季度報告的實際稅率為 32.5%。第一季調整後淨利下降1.6%至1.25億美元。本季平均稀釋股份數為 1.702 億股，本季我們以平均每股 81.24 美元的價格購買了約 130 萬股。到目前為止，我們的回購計畫取得了成功，產生的年化內部報酬率高於我們的資本成本。截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日，我們的稀釋後股份總數為 1.694 億股。本季經調整後的每股盈餘（完全稀釋後）為 0.74 美元，下降 1.3%。由於本季營收成長異常溫和，且被更高的稅率和匯率影響所抵消，持續經營業務的稀釋調整後每股盈餘有所下降。截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日止的三個月，持續經營活動產生的淨現金為 3.18 億美元，成長 12.8%。

Capital expenditures increased 22.9% to $31 million for the 3-month period ended March 31, 2017. CapEx was 6.2% of revenue year-to-date. Free cash flow increased 11.8% to $287 million for the 3-month period ended March 31. Free cash flow was 116.7% of EBITDA as we continue to collect more cash in our seasonally strong Q1. Growth in free cash flow was driven by strong working capital management, highlighting an important aspect of our business model. Free cash flow remains an important metric for measurement of driving enterprise and, therefore, shareholder value.

截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日的三個月期間，資本支出增加 22.9%，達到 3,100 萬美元。今年迄今為止，資本支出佔收入的 6.2%。截至 3 月 31 日的三個月期間，自由現金流成長 11.8%，達到 2.87 億美元。由於我們在季節性強勁的第一季繼續獲得更多現金，自由現金流佔 EBITDA 的 116.7%。自由現金流的成長得益於強大的營運資本管理，凸顯了我們商業模式的一個重要面向。自由現金流仍然是衡量企業獲利能力和股東價值的重要指標。

As you think about your models for 2017, currency will continue to be a headwind in 2Q, moderating a bit as we move into the second half based on current exchange rates. To help you look at the FX impact, the following 2016 total revenues are restated at the March 31, 2017 rate. If rates were unchanged from March 31, 2017, these would be the base for the organic constant currency revenue growth for the remainder of the year. Most of the FX impact falls within the energy and specialized revenue line items in Decision Analytics.

在考慮 2017 年的商業模式時，匯率在第二季度仍將是一個不利因素，但隨著我們進入下半年，根據目前的匯率情況，這種不利因素會略有緩解。為了幫助您了解匯率的影響，以下 2016 年總收入已以 2017 年 3 月 31 日的匯率重新計算。如果利率與 2017 年 3 月 31 日的利率保持不變，則這些利率將成為今年剩餘時間有機固定匯率收入成長的基礎。外匯影響主要體現在決策分析中的能源和專業收入項目。

For 2Q 2016, the revenue would have been $490 million versus the reported $498 million. For Q3 2016, it would have been $494 million versus the reported $498 million. And for Q4 '16, the revenue would have been $505 million versus the reported $506 million. You'll also recall that merit increases go into effect April 1, which typically creates a seasonal step up in the expense base. So there's a natural step down in margins from Q1 to Q2, all else being equal. The net of many of these factors is that we continue to expect growth to improve as we move through the year, particularly in the second half. In addition, we expect fixed asset depreciation and amortization of $130 million to $135 million, up from what we expected last quarter, as we were able to move projects into service faster than we had planned and amortization of intangibles of about $95 million. Based on our current debt balances and interest rates, we expect interest expense to be around $113 million. This includes noncash amortization of debt issuance costs. We estimate the tax rate will be in the range of 32% to 33%. And in the adjusted net income calculation, we will continue to use 26% for the tax effect on intangible amortization. And finally, we expect the diluted weighted average share count of about 171.2 million shares. We look forward to ramping results through 2017 and beyond. We are excited about the opportunities to invest as we work to drive long-term free cash flow. We remain confident that we have the financial strength and capital structure to support investment for the long term. We also continue to appreciate all this support and interest in Verisk.

2016 年第二季的營收本應為 4.9 億美元，而公佈的數據為 4.98 億美元。2016 年第三季度，實際金額應為 4.94 億美元，而報道的金額為 4.98 億美元。2016 年第四季度，營收本應為 5.05 億美元，而公佈的營收為 5.06 億美元。您還應該記得，績效工資成長將於 4 月 1 日生效，這通常會導致支出基數出現季節性成長。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，利潤率從第一季到第二季自然會下降。綜合以上許多因素，我們預期今年經濟成長將持續改善，尤其是在下半年。此外，我們預計固定資產折舊和攤銷將達到 1.3 億美元至 1.35 億美元，高於上一季的預期，因為我們能夠比計劃更快地將專案投入使用，無形資產攤銷約為 9,500 萬美元。根據我們目前的債務餘額和利率，我們預計利息支出約為 1.13 億美元。這包括債務發行成本的非現金攤提。我們估計稅率將在 32% 到 33% 之間。在調整後的淨收入計算中，我們將繼續使用 26% 的稅率來計算無形資產攤銷的稅務影響。最後，我們預計稀釋後的加權平均股數約為 1.712 億股。我們期待在 2017 年及以後取得更大的業績。我們對投資機會感到興奮，因為我們正努力推動長期自由現金流的成長。我們仍然相信，我們擁有足夠的財務實力和資本結構來支持長期投資。我們同樣感謝大家對 Verisk 的支持與關注。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

（操作員指示）接下來，我將請操作員開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from the line of Tim McHugh of William Blair.

（操作說明）你的第一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的提姆麥克休。

First, I guess, just wanted to follow-up on Scott's comment that, I think you said, for the full year you expect insurance and financial services to grow consistent with history. But I think you also -- given the loss of those contracts, can you help us understand, I guess, more specifically what you mean by consistent with history? And I guess, can you see Argus get back to the growth rates? I mean, that implies a pretty significant growth rate, so any more color, I guess, on the recovery from here?

首先，我想就 Scott 的評論做個補充，我想你說過，你預計全年保險和金融服務業的成長將與歷史水準保持一致。但我認為，鑑於這些合約的遺失，您能否幫助我們更具體地理解您所說的「與歷史一致」是什麼意思？那麼，你認為 Argus 的成長率能夠恢復到之前的水準嗎？我的意思是，這意味著相當可觀的成長率，那麼，關於接下來的復甦情況，還有什麼更詳細的說明嗎？

Right. Well, one of the things to know about Argus is that it is sort of, I would say, a constantly dynamic environment in the sense that we are able to, and are, reaching out to new customers consistently. And so the right way to think about the business is that the customer list grows. There were these rotations of the government customers that we noted for you. But it is a dynamic set of customers as well as a dynamic set of offerings where the media effectiveness solutions are really finding their mark. And so it will be a combination of new names on the customer list and increased levels of spending with customers that are already on the customer list.

正確的。嗯，關於 Argus，需要了解的一點是，我認為它是一個不斷變化的環境，因為我們能夠並且不斷地接觸新客戶。因此，看待這項業務的正確方式是：客戶名單不斷增長。我們已為您記錄了政府客戶的這些輪調情況。但正是在不斷變化的客戶群和不斷變化的產品組合中，媒體效果解決方案才真正找到了自己的定位。因此，這將是客戶名單上新增客戶以及現有客戶消費水準提高的雙重結果。

Okay. And I guess mathematically, I think, in the past, insurance and financial services have combined to grow kind of 7% to 8% in the last few years. Is that the number that you're thinking of?

好的。從數學角度來看，我認為，過去幾年保險和金融服務業的總成長率約為 7% 到 8%。你指的是這個數字嗎？

Yes, that's exactly what we're saying.

是的，我們正是這個意思。

And is that an organic or including some of the acquisitions?

這是自然成長還是包括部分收購？

Organic.

有機的。

And your next question is from the line of Jeff Meuler of Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

On financial services, it seems like growth or revenues maybe are more dependent on large projects than I previously appreciated. So just -- how much -- how many large projects or what's the exposure to large projects you still have in the revenue base there? And I heard that some slipped out of Q1, but just what's the visibility into the pipeline? And then I guess more importantly, how do you think about the long-term growth rate for Argus?

在金融服務領域，成長或收入似乎比我之前意識到的更依賴大型專案。那麼，你們的收入基礎中還有多少大型項目，或者說，你們在大型項目方面的風險敞口有多大？我聽說有些專案未能按計劃進行到第一季度，但目前專案進度如何？然後，我想更重要的是，您如何看待 Argus 的長期成長率？

Yes. So let me start with sort of the second question first, Jeff. We remain very positive about Argus' intermediate and long-term growth. The strength of where we start from, which is a very unique insight into patterns of consumer spending, we are continuing to find very good ways to commercialize that. And we are also finding ways to take the platform and expand it overseas. And so those trends are going to continue, basically. And so we feel very good about the growth profile. There is -- as companies become -- meaning our customers, become more aware of and aligned to the opportunity that they have to make use of these newer kinds of data analytics that they haven't made use of before, there is -- there are moment-in-time effects where they kind of get into the new methods and so, you do tend to get a bit more lumpiness when that happens. It's really just the nature of the beast. And the rotations out by, for example, the government customers, I think are very, very specific to their situations and their conditions and really don't reflect the overall commercial potential of what's here. But there is that effect even inside of what end up looking like subscription revenues, because there is sort of a moment in time at which customers get into the new methods and that will sort of create a lump of revenue at a moment in time.

是的。傑夫，那我就先回答第二個問題吧。我們對Argus的中長期成長前景依然非常​​樂觀。我們從自身優勢出發，對消費者支出模式有著非常獨特的洞察力，我們不斷尋找將其商業化的絕佳方法。我們也在尋找將該平台拓展到海外的方法。因此，這些趨勢基本上還會持續下去。因此，我們對成長前景感到非常樂觀。隨著公司（也就是我們的客戶）越來越意識到並適應他們以前從未利用過的新型數據分析的機會，在他們開始採用新方法時，會出現一些瞬息萬變的現象，因此，當這種情況發生時，往往會出現一些波動。這就是事物的本質。例如，政府客戶的輪調採購，我認為非常具體地取決於他們的情況和條件，並不能真正反映這裡的整體商業潛力。但即使在最終看起來像是訂閱收入的情況下，也存在這種影響，因為總會有一個時刻，客戶會開始接受新的訂閱方式，這會在某個時刻產生一筆收入。

Okay. And then in terms of the moderating industry headwinds that you called out, I heard Eva's comment about reinsurance, I guess, stabilizing. But could you just broadly characterize your view of the insurance end market right now? So I guess reinsurance stabilizing, but what are your thoughts on other areas of the insurance ecosystem headwinds getting better or stable, et cetera?

好的。至於你提到的產業逆風緩和問題，我聽到了伊娃關於再保險的評論，我想，再保險市場正在趨於穩定。您能否大致描述一下您目前對保險終端市場的看法？所以我覺得再保險市場正在趨於穩定，但您認為保險生態系統其他領域的不利因素是否會好轉或穩定等等？

Sure. This is Mark. Good question. So let me start with the reinsurance side of things. So clearly, it's a very soft market from a reinsurance perspective, which puts pressure on our customers. That remains. At the same time, what we have highlighted is, there's a lot of industry consolidations. When industry consolidations happen, that also kind of interacts with our contracts with what is now 1 as opposed to 2 entities. That headwind is kind of almost cycled through. So that's good news with regard to cycling through. We've addressed kind of those concerns and how we want to contract with customers going forward and what we're also seeing is some volumes back into, what I'll refer to as, securitization market. We see customers kind of ramping up to continue to do businesses they always have. And as they look to expand and as they look to basically grow their businesses, both on the insurance side as well as the reinsurance side, they're looking at new avenues whether it's cyber as an example. How they're going to move their books to new, what I'll refer to as, casualty type of extreme events? So that's a good constructive approach for the industry, and we're kind of on the cutting edge with a lot of that. So that's a positive. I would say to you that I don't see a lot of dramatic change inside the insurance industry except for the ones I've highlighted in the past. There is a tremendous amount of technology -- InsureTech, that is happening. People are installing new systems. They're transitioning over. They're really looking to do the big data analytic thing. They're really looking to do digital engagement because people expect kind of better online engagement, like they would with an Amazon or when they're buying product on the web. All of that has created a nice opportunity for us to get involved in those kind of those projects to redefine how they want to see the future. So tough time but good opportunities for us in light of the change that's happening. So (inaudible)

當然。這是馬克。問得好。那麼，就讓我先從再保險方面說起。顯然，從再保險的角度來看，這是一個非常疲軟的市場，這給我們的客戶帶來了壓力。這一點依然存在。同時，我們強調的是，產業整合正在發生。當產業整合發生時，這也會影響我們與現在只有 1 個實體而不是 2 個實體簽訂的合約。那股逆風幾乎是循環的。所以，就騎車而言，這算是個好消息。我們已經解決了這些問題，以及我們希望如何與客戶簽訂未來的合同，我們也看到一些交易量重新流入我稱之為證券化市場。我們看到客戶們正在逐步加大力度，繼續開展他們一直以來的業務。隨著他們尋求擴張，並希望在保險和再保險方面發展壯大業務，他們正在尋找新的途徑，例如網路安全。他們將如何把帳目轉移到新的、我稱之為「傷亡型極端事件」的領域？所以這對產業來說是一個很好的建設性方法，我們在很多方面都處於領先地位。這是個好消息。我想說的是，除了我過去強調的那些變化之外，我沒有看到保險業內部發生太多劇烈的變化。保險科技領域正在湧現大量新技術。人們正在安裝新系統。他們正在過渡。他們真的很想做大數據分析。他們非常希望進行數位互動，因為人們期望獲得更好的線上互動體驗，就像他們在亞馬遜上購物或在線上購買產品一樣。所有這些都為我們提供了一個很好的機會，讓我們能夠參與這類專案中，重新定義他們希望如何看待未來。所以現在是艱難時期，但鑑於正在發生的變化，這對我們來說也是一個很好的機會。所以（聽不清楚）

And your next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

My first question is, I guess in the past, you've given your expectations for insurance in that same 7% to 8% cap, and then financial or Argus in the mid-teens. And now, you're sort of grouping them together and giving that guidance and -- from the comments, it sounded like you already reiterated your confidence in Argus. And so is the missing piece here then the natural insurance slowdown until all your investable opportunities, whatever, start coming to fruition? Is that how we should think of it?

我的第一個問題是，我猜您過去對保險的預期收益率上限是 7% 到 8%，而對金融或 Argus 的預期收益率上限是十幾個百分點。現在，你把它們歸類在一起，並給予指導——從評論來看，你似乎已經重申了你對 Argus 的信心。所以，這裡缺少的部分是不是就是保險業的自然放緩，直到你所有的投資機會（或其他任何機會）開始實現為止？我們該這樣想嗎？

No. Manav, it's Eva. I'll just -- maybe I'll just take it up a level. Just, I know we always try to have discussions at very detailed levels. But fundamentally, I think what we're trying to tie our confidence to in the statements that Scott made around insurance and financial combined and the growth targets we have there is we've made comments in the past about our overall long-term growth targets organically for Verisk Analytics. And that -- the statement that Scott made ties very closely to that. Obviously, at the current moment in time, energy's at a moment where it's not at those levels. I think we've talked about that. I think the team is doing a great job. So really, how we've dimensioned it, I would think about it that way because we -- as Wood Mackenzie works through the energy cycle and is doing a great job, putting it in that overall bucket at the moment in time would not be appropriate. So that's really what we're trying to message when we're talking about those 2 on a combined basis.

不。馬納夫，我是伊娃。我或許──或許我應該把它提升到更高的層次。只是，我知道我們總是努力進行非常細緻的討論。但從根本上講，我認為我們試圖將我們的信心與斯科特就保險和金融綜合領域所作的聲明以及我們在該領域的增長目標聯繫起來，因為我們過去曾就 Verisk Analytics 的整體長期有機增長目標發表過評論。而斯科特發表的聲明與此密切相關。顯然，目前的能量水平還沒有達到那種程度。我想我們已經討論過這個問題了。我認為團隊做得非常出色。所以，就我們目前對它的定位而言，我會這樣想，因為我們——伍德麥肯茲公司正在研究能源循環，並且做得非常出色，目前將其歸入那個總體範疇是不合適的。所以，當我們把這兩者結合起來討論時，我們真正想要傳達的訊息就是這個。

Okay, got it. And then, Scott, of those 20 opportunities you mentioned a bunch of different, I guess, bigger headlines on what -- the stuff you're working on there. I think we've heard of telematics and imagery before. But is there any hierarchy or any sort of opportunity that stands out more than the others? Because some of the stuff, like you mentioned, like machine learning and Internet of Things, seem fairly broad.

好的，明白了。然後，斯科特，在你提到的 20 個機會中，有很多不同的，我想，更大的新聞頭條是關於——你在那裡工作的事情。我想我們之前都聽說過遠端資訊處理和影像處理。但是否存在某種等級制度或某種比其他機會更突出的機會呢？因為有些東西，就像你提到的，像是機器學習和物聯網，似乎相當廣泛。

Well, the way that we're going to provide for our growth near and long term actually is to operate on a number of fronts. And you've got some themes like Internet of Things broadly, like cyber as a theme, where the use cases -- the path to commercialization is still sort of emerging. But that doesn't mean that the ideas are anything other than very good ideas and ones that we feel like we have special contributions to make. But in the sort of intermediate term, 2 themes that are -- the ones that you've heard us talk about a lot, actually, and we really do have a lot of enthusiasm for are the interpretation of remote imagery, which we think is a very important theme for any number of reasons, including remote imagery and the interpretation of it can apply across multiple verticals and, actually, multiple geographies. And the other one that I would point to is, in fact, telematics and especially vehicle telematics where we just -- we are -- we can see, in our own experience, sort of the rising volumes of data and the increasing attention to those datasets and those analytics among our existing customer base. So you've heard us talk about those 2 a lot. But that doesn't mean that they're tired, in any sense. In fact, we think we're kind of in the early, early stages of both of those being important inside of our business.

事實上，我們實現近期和長期成長的方式是在多個方面開展業務。還有一些主題，例如廣義的物聯網，以及網路安全等主題，其應用案例——商業化之路仍在發展中。但這並不代表這些想法不好，它們都是非常好的想法，我們覺得自己可以為此做出特殊貢獻。但就中期而言，有兩個主題——實際上你們已經聽我們多次談論過，而且我們也確實對此充滿熱情——那就是遙感影像的解讀，我們認為這是一個非常重要的主題，原因有很多，包括遙感影像及其解讀可以應用於多個垂直領域，實際上也可以應用於多個地理區域。而我想指出的另一點實際上是遠端資訊處理，特別是車輛遠端資訊處理，我們——我們——根據我們自身的經驗，可以看到資料量不斷增長，我們現有的客戶群也越來越關注這些資料集和分析。所以你們已經聽我們多次談到這兩個人了。但這並不意味著他們感到疲憊。事實上，我們認為我們目前還處於這兩方面在我們業務中發揮重要作用的早期階段。

And your next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari of Macquarie Capital.

你的下一個問題來自麥格理資本的 Hamzah Mazari。

Just a question on the energy business. Could you remind us how -- what percent of your contracts are sort of multiyear? And do you see energy getting worse here? Or is that just primarily currency?

關於能源產業，我有個問題。能否提醒我們一下，你們的合約中，多年期合約佔比是多少？你覺得這裡的能源狀況正在惡化嗎？或者說，那主要只是貨幣問題？

Yes. So, on the first question, I would say it's roughly half that are multiyear. And I think we've talked about in the past how we pick moments in time where we're responsive to customers and also market conditions where we choose to pull those out or shorten those. And what I would say is, just with regards to WoodMac, we do continue just in the reported results to see some lag effect from the customer management in previous periods. But as we look at the business signing today, we're really seeing good growth in renewal signings, cross-sell, we have existing products, we have new solutions added from acquisitions over the past year or so. So we like how the year is shaping up so far.

是的。所以，關於第一個問題，我認為大約有一半是多年期合約。我認為我們過去也討論過，我們會選擇合適的時機來回應客戶的需求，也會根據市場狀況選擇何時取消或縮短某些服務。我想說的是，就 WoodMac 而言，我們確實從已公佈的業績中繼續看到前幾個時期客戶管理方面的一些滯後效應。但從今天的業務簽約情況來看，續約簽約、交叉銷售都取得了良好的成長，我們有現有產品，而且在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們還透過收購增加了新的解決方案。所以，我們對今年目前的進展很滿意。

Great. And then just a question on capital allocation. Leverage is pretty low. It doesn't seem like there's any significant scale deals outside of the current verticals that you're in. Maybe if you could just frame for us your appetite to put on a dividend here, given your highly reoccurring revenue base. And then the -- and with regard to that, the $100 million buyback. Is that a run rate we should expect going forward?

偉大的。然後還有一個關於資本配置的問題。槓桿率很低。除了你目前所處的垂直領域之外，似乎沒有任何大規模的交易機會。鑑於貴公司擁有非常穩定的經常性收入，或許您可以向我們說明您是否有意願派發股息。然後——關於這一點，就是1億美元的股票回購計畫。這是我們未來應該預期的運行速度嗎？

Yes. So let me start with that. Eva might want to add a little something to this. But I want to go back to kind of the premise of your question. We actually have always seen the M&A program as being sort of the complement to our program of internal investment. One of the values that we believe that we bring to our investors that is unique is that we have hundreds of people walking the halls of our customers on a daily basis. And being in such close contact with our customers, we're able to see the solutions that are making a difference for them. First and foremost, our own, of course. But we're actually able to see other third parties and knowing where we think value lies and what our strategy is about and having this intelligence in terms of what else is going on in the market, we will always lean into the program of M&A. And in fact, we've -- if anything, we've really redoubled our efforts to enlist everybody to be a part of the M&A team. And so we don't see it as an -- as a world, a situation where there isn't opportunity. In fact, we think that there is opportunity. So that -- I just need to start with that because the way that we think about capital, we certainly care deeply about deploying capital effectively. The program of M&A has been highly productive for our investors and we believe that it will continue to be. We're very comfortable returning capital and we've done so and we've done so steadily. Whatever is the right way to deploy capital is what we're going to do on behalf of our shareholders. To date, it has not occurred to us that the dividend was necessarily a part of that mix. We ask the question routinely. We'll continue to ask the question. But so far, we've -- I think you've seen in our behavior that we're not only comfortable returning capital in the form of buybacks but we have done so and I think you should continue to expect us to do so. So there will be a balance there, there always has been a balance there and there always will be a balance there.

是的。那麼，就讓我從這裡開始吧。伊娃或許想在這裡加點東西。但我想回到你問題的最初前提。實際上，我們一直將併購計劃視為我們內部投資計劃的補充。我們相信，我們為投資者帶來的獨特價值之一是，我們每天都有數百名員工在客戶的辦公室走動。與客戶保持如此密切的聯繫，我們能夠看到哪些解決方案正在為他們帶來改變。首先，當然是我們自己的。但實際上，我們能夠看到其他第三方，並且知道我們認為價值所在，我們的策略是什麼，並且掌握了市場上其他正在發生的事情的情報，我們將始終致力於併購計劃。事實上，我們——如果有什麼變化的話——那就是我們加倍努力，爭取讓每個人都加入併購團隊。所以，我們並不認為這是一個──一個沒有機會的世界，一種沒有機會的處境。事實上，我們認為存在機會。所以——我首先要說明的是，我們對資本的看法是，我們當然非常重視有效運用資本。併購計劃為我們的投資者帶來了豐厚的回報，我們相信它將繼續如此。我們非常樂意返還資本，而且我們也確實這樣做了，並且一直穩步地這樣做。我們將代表股東採取最適當的資本配置方式。到目前為止，我們還沒有意識到股息必然是其中的一部分。我們常常會問這個問題。我們會繼續追問這個問題。但到目前為止，我認為你們已經從我們的行為中看到了這一點，我們不僅樂於以股票回購的形式返還資本，而且我們也確實這樣做了，我認為你們應該繼續期待我們這樣做。所以那裡會保持平衡，過去一直保持平衡，將來也會一直保持平衡。

And maybe just to answer your specific question about run rate, I think just tying into how Scott described our capital allocation. Our first filter that we look for is buying interesting companies that meet our distinctives that add to growth, that add to customer solutions. And then after that filter is put in place, the next filter is our stock repurchase program and that's going to be keyed off, as it always has been, the value of the stock at the moment in time and we are managing that not to accretion dilution but rather actually to the returns like our investors would as well. So when you ask about run rate, we don't actually design our program as a run rate program. It's going to be a function of that initial filter around M&A and obviously, I think, as you know, M&A isn't sort of quarter by quarter. You chunk it in. And so that repurchase rate will vary across the year depending upon what that filter and what that pipeline looks like.

或許只是為了回答你關於運行率的具體問題，我認為這與 Scott 對我們資本配置的描述有關。我們尋找的第一個篩選標準是收購一家符合我們獨特優勢、能夠促進成長、能夠為客戶帶來解決方案的有趣公司。然後，在設定好第一道篩選條件之後，下一個篩選條件就是我們的股票回購計畫。該計劃將一如既往地以股票當時的價值為基準，我們管理該計劃的目的不是為了增加或稀釋股權，而是為了像我們的投資者一樣，真正為股東帶來回報。所以當你問到跑動率時，我們實際上並沒有把我們的計劃設計成以跑動率為目標的計劃。這取決於併購交易的初步篩選機制，而且顯然，如你所知，併購交易並不是按季度進行的。你把它分批放入。因此，回購率會隨著篩選條件和銷售管道的狀況而變化，一年中也會有所不同。

And your next question is from the line of Andrew Jeffrey of SunTrust.

你的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Andrew Jeffrey。

As I think about Verisk and my experience with the company, I would describe the business -- the insurance business generally as being relatively unexposed or underexposed, I guess, to insurance end market fundamentals. I wonder if you can comment, sort of qualitatively, on whether or not you think changed and accordingly would it -- does it influence the type of products you're developing, the time to market, our expectations for return on the investments you've been making and so forth. So I appreciate the comment on the reacceleration of revenue growth. I just wonder if there's something that's sort of fundamentally changed in the relationship between Verisk's insurance business and the end markets it serves.

當我思考 Verisk 以及我與這家公司的經驗時，我會將這個產業——或者說整個保險業——描述為相對而言，對保險終端市場基本面的暴露程度較低或不足。我想知道您能否就以下問題進行一些定性評論：您認為這是否發生了變化？以及這是否會影響您正在開發的產品類型、上市時間、我們對您所做投資回報的預期等等？因此，我感謝您對營收成長重新加速的評論。我只是想知道 Verisk 的保險業務與其服務的終端市場之間的關係是否發生了某種根本性的變化。

Yes -- no -- I -- we really don't think that and as you would imagine, we actually are very alert to that and are -- would be quite sensitive if we thought that there was something there. But -- No. Actually, I mean, if you look at industry structure there -- I mean, there's like one larger merger that is sort of in the process of ratcheting through. And as we've discussed many times on these calls and in other forums, when something like that occurs, where those 2 companies are concerned, there maybe a moment in time adjustment, but we -- I mean, that's kind of normal course of business from our perspective. And the regulatory environment really is not changing. It's not particularly dynamic. And so kind of from that perspective, the environment in which we do our business is more or less the same. When I talk to the chief executives of insurance companies, as I do routinely, what they're really about is changing their methods and trying to find ways to grow their businesses. That's fundamentally what they're giving attention to. And we stand in that stream of activity for them. Do they -- are they -- do they have healthy amounts of self-respect and want to make sure that they're getting ultimate value from a partner like us and do they like to talk to us about the invoices that we send them, et cetera? Sure. And they always have. But I don't really think -- if you go back 15 years, you could find moments when premiums went up pretty substantially year-over-year. That has not recurred for quite some time now. So our mission is the same as it's always been, which is to do a fantastic job of relating to our customers and bringing them new sources of value. I think they're as open to that as they've ever been. I think that we're more innovative than we've ever been. And that's really what's going to determine the outcome as we go forward. I will say, we definitely need to keep our feet moving. Their issues modify and change and we need to be right there as they do. So it's not a question of staying where we are. We have to be extremely energetic. But I think -- I don't think anything has changed in terms of our standing with them.

是的——不——我——我們真的不這麼認為，而且正如你所想，我們實際上對此非常警惕，如果我們認為那裡有什麼問題，我們會非常敏感。但是——不。實際上，我的意思是，如果你看看那裡的行業結構——我的意思是，那裡有一項較大的合併正在逐步推進。正如我們在這些電話會議和其他論壇上多次討論的那樣，當發生類似的事情時，就這兩家公司而言，可能會出現一些暫時的調整，但我們——我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，這算是正常的業務流程。監管環境其實並沒有改變。它並不特別有活力。因此，從這個角度來看，我們開展業務的環境大致上是相同的。當我像往常一樣與保險公司的執行長交談時，他們真正關心的是改變經營方式，並努力尋找發展業務的方法。從根本上來說，他們關注的就是這個。我們站在他們行動的洪流中。他們——他們——他們是否有足夠的自尊，是否希望確保從像我們這樣的合作夥伴那裡獲得最大的價值，以及他們是否喜歡和我們討論我們寄給他們的發票等等？當然。他們一直都是如此。但我認為——如果你回顧過去 15 年，你可能會發現保費比去年同期大幅上漲的時期。這種情況已經很久沒有再發生了。因此，我們的使命與以往一樣，那就是出色地與客戶建立聯繫，並為他們帶來新的價值來源。我認為他們對此持開放態度，一如既往。我認為我們現在比以往任何時候都更具創新力。而這才是真正決定我們未來走向的關鍵。我想說，我們絕對需要保持前進的步伐。他們的問題會不斷變化，我們需要時時注意並解決這些問題。所以這不是我們是否要留在原地的問題。我們必須精力充沛。但我認為——我認為我們與他們的關係沒有任何改變。

Okay. And if I play devil's advocate and say, okay, Verisk has been investing in a lot of those new solutions -- which I think you enumerated, Scott -- for a while. And you just had a tough quarter with some external pressure. Why is it now that all of a sudden, at least it feels that way from the outside looking in, some of these new solutions gained traction? Are there specific contracts or customers to which you can point that create sort of a coincidental inflection point in the growth from some of these new offerings?

好的。如果我扮演一下反方角色，說，好吧，Verisk 已經投資了很多新的解決方案——我想你已經列舉了，Scott——已經有一段時間了。而且你剛剛經歷了一個艱難的季度，還面臨一些外部壓力。為什麼現在突然之間（至少從外人看來是這樣），這些新解決方案中的一些獲得了支持？是否有具體的合約或客戶可以指出，這些合約或客戶在某些新產品的成長中起到了某種偶然的轉折點作用？

Well, that's -- that is why we have the view that we have of the rest of '17 and beyond is we know specifically what is going on in the business, specific customers, specific contracts and so yes, I mean, that's -- whenever we're reporting to you, whenever we make a forward-looking statement, it's on that basis. That's how we think about our business.

嗯，這就是為什麼我們對 2017 年剩餘時間及以後的看法，我們具體了解業務中正在發生的事情、具體的客戶、具體的合同，所以是的，我的意思是，每當我們向你們匯報，每當我們做出前瞻性聲明時，都是基於這個基礎。我們就是這樣看待我們業務的。

I'll give a little color, if it's helpful. I mean, one of the things that we try to do and always do is take a look at what's committed from the standpoint of contracts, what's implementing when and I think what we've seen is 2 things. About 2/3 of our kind of need for revenue growth is committed in the form of kind of contracted price escalation, contracted new products, contracted new customers and what remains is kind of a new sale type of target that is reasonable in light of what we've done in the past and reasonable in light of what we have in our pipeline. So we continue to feel good about the full year.

如果需要的話，我可以補充一些細節。我的意思是，我們努力做到並且一直都在做的事情之一，就是從合約的角度審視已經做出的承諾，以及何時實施。我認為我們看到了兩件事。我們約 2/3 的收入成長需求已透過合約規定的價格上漲、新產品開發和新客戶開發等方式實現，剩下的部分則是新的銷售目標，考慮到我們過去所做的工作以及我們目前的發展計劃，這個目標是合理的。因此，我們對全年的業績依然感到樂觀。

And your next question is from the line of Bill Warmington of Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的比爾沃明頓。

So I just wanted to delve a little bit more into Mark's good feelings about the rest of the year. So if we ended up at about -- see, it looks like 2.5% organic growth in Q1, you adjust for the true-up, you're probably at about 3.3%. So I wanted to ask about the pace of acceleration towards that 7% to 8% target, the 7% to 8% target being the level at which all businesses are firing on all cylinders. And are we thinking you could get there at the end of 2017? Or maybe we're thinking more at the end of 2018? I'm just trying to get a sense for the pace of the acceleration.

所以我想更深入地了解馬克對今年剩餘時間的樂觀感受。所以，如果我們最終的有機成長率約為——你看，第一季的有機成長率似乎是 2.5%，如果你根據調整後的成長率進行調整，那麼最終的有機成長率可能約為 3.3%。因此，我想詢問一下向 7% 到 8% 的目標加速發展的速度，7% 到 8% 的目標是所有企業都全力運轉的水平。我們覺得您能在 2017 年底前達成這個目標嗎？或許我們更多是在考慮 2018 年底的事？我只是想了解加速的速度。

Yes. Just to reiterate, that was a 2017 comment. So just to say it again, the rate of organic growth for our combined insurance and financial services businesses, we think, will be on the historic trend, in that 7% to 8% range for the full year.

是的。再次重申一下，那是 2017 年的評論。所以再次重申一下，我們認為，我們保險和金融服務業務的有機成長率將保持歷史趨勢，全年成長率將在 7% 到 8% 的範圍內。

And as it relates to insurance, I'll reiterate to the extent that we think of the incremental growth that we need, about 2/3 of it, we believe, are committed in the form of contract with 1/3 or so of this incremental being let's go get it and that's new sales.

至於保險方面，我重申一下，我們認為，在我們需要的增量增長中，大約 2/3 已經以合約的形式確定下來，而這增量增長的 1/3 左右則是需要我們去爭取的，也就是新的銷售。

And, Bill, just to wrap on, I think you're asking a question about ramp. I think, you know the nature of our business where we have a large portion of subscription contracts which is a real positive for us. But that also means is a subscription starts July 1, that starts contributing then. So naturally, as you layer in subscriptions, those -- that layers into the growth across the rest of the year.

比爾，最後再問一句，我想你是在問一個關於斜坡的問題。我想，您應該了解我們業務的性質，我們有很大一部分是訂閱合同，這對我們來說是一個非常有利的因素。但這也意味著，如果訂閱從7月1日開始，那麼訂閱者就從那時開始產生費用。因此，隨著訂閱量的增加，這些自然會融入全年的成長中。

Okay. And then for my follow-up question, I wanted to ask about the international expansion opportunity. You've talked in the past about an opportunity in banking, also an opportunity in insurance. I wanted to know if we could get an update on that and also maybe talk a little bit about how cloud receptivity by the client base is playing into that?

好的。然後，我的後續問題是，我想問國際擴張的機會。你之前談過銀行業的機會，也談到保險業的機會。我想了解這方面的最新進展，也想稍微探討一下客戶群對雲端技術的接受度如何影響這個進程？

Yes. So first of all, with respect to international, there are some -- we're presenting differently internationally than we used to. WoodMac has always been international. But I'm -- and actually, Argus has always had a strong dimension of that. But the -- I just want to underline the Fintellix acquisition and the additional reach that, that provides to the Argus franchise, which is really good news. Over on the insurance side, we are presenting credentials and presenting solutions at a level and to a set of customers that we kind of haven't before, basically. I mean, we were aware of them. They were aware of us, but we are now in a position to be able to make large proposals to name brand companies. We've always been able to do that in the reinsurance vertical. But now in the insurance vertical, we are increasingly positioned to be able to do that. It's really very exciting, actually. Nothing is going to occur overnight in vertical data analytic land the way that we do things. But we are quite encouraged actually by what's going on there.

是的。首先，就國際層面而言，我們有一些——我們在國際上的呈現方式與以往有所不同。WoodMac一直是一家國際公司。但我——實際上，Argus 一直都具有很強的這種特質。但是——我只想強調 Fintellix 的收購以及它為 Argus 品牌帶來的額外影響力，這真是個好消息。在保險方面，我們正在以前所未有的方式，向一群以前從未接觸過的客戶展示資格和解決方案。我的意思是，我們早就知道他們的存在。他們之前就聽說過我們，但我們現在有能力向知名品牌公司提出大型提案。在再保險領域，我們一直都能做到這一點。但現在在保險領域，我們越來越有能力做到這一點。真是太令人興奮了。按照我們目前的方式，垂直資料分析領域不會在一夜之間發生任何改變。但實際上，我們對那裡發生的事情感到非常鼓舞。

And your next question is from the line of Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

Scott, I was hoping it's okay to look back to 2016. Looking back to early 2016, Verisk thought the insurance vertical, in total, would accelerate for full year 2016 and then later contracts start seemed to slip in the insurance vertical didn't accelerate for full year 2016 and some -- what I want to know is the contract wins that you got from last year that you thought would ramp and then didn't ramp, are they ramping now?

史考特，我希望回顧一下2016年是可以的。回顧 2016 年初，Verisk 認為保險業整體而言會在 2016 年全年加速增長，但後來合同開始似乎有所下滑，保險業的增長並沒有在 2016 年全年加速，而且——我想知道的是，你們去年贏得的那些你們認為會增長但後來沒有增長的合同，現在是否正在增長？

Yes. It's all a part of the overall view that we gave you. I mean, we've got thousands of customers and it's depending upon which part of our company we're talking about. But -- so the effect, the overall effect in our business is the accumulation of a lot of different things that are going on. But fundamentally, the relationships with the existing customers are as strong as ever. We are pushing out internationally, which isn't yet an overwhelming effect, but it is, it's positive, it's constructive and new solutions continue to find their way. And it's really at the intersection of all those things that our results occur.

是的。這一切都是我們向你展示的整體觀點的一部分。我的意思是，我們有成千上萬的客戶，這取決於我們談論的是我們公司的哪個部門。但是——因此，我們業務的整體影響是許多不同因素累積的結果。但從根本上講，與現有客戶的關係仍然牢固。我們正在向國際市場拓展，雖然目前還沒有產生壓倒性的影響，但這的確是積極的、建設性的，新的解決方案也不斷出現。而我們的研究結果，其實正是所有這些因素交會的結果。

And your next question is from the line of Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

This is Patrick in for Toni. I wanted to go back to the stream of new products. How should we think about the relative commercial impact of the new products you're currently developing or rolling out across the insurance business as compared to the class of products you developed and rolled out over the last 3 years? I'm wondering if there are just fewer home runs left to hit in that market?

這是帕特里克代替托尼上場。我想重新投入新產品的研發。我們應該如何看待您目前正在開發或推出的保險業務新產品與您過去 3 年開發和推出的產品類別相比的相對商業影響？我想知道是不是那個市場上已經沒有太多機會可以抓住了？

No. I don't feel that way at all. In fact, I think some of the newer solutions have probably above-average potential. And it may -- those of you who have sort of been with us for a while, if we keep saying the same things like remote imagery, analytics and telematics, that may sound like there's nothing new there. In data analytic land, particularly in vertical market data analytic land, it takes a while to get to the inflection point, and then you get to the inflection point. And so that's effectively the dynamic that work inside of our business. So don't misunderstand us going back to the same themes and as you try to interpret our growth in any particular time period, you may be trying to sort of create sort of a 1:1 equivalence. Solutions, when they finally find their mark, actually have an unusual inflection relative to where they began. And so as you would imagine, day to day, minute to minute, we're working absolutely as hard as we can to get established as well as feeding the pipeline with additional new solutions. So no, I don't -- it's not the case that the newer solutions have lesser potential than those that maybe we developed 3 to 5 years ago. I don't know if you want to add to that, Mark.

不。我完全沒有那種感覺。事實上，我認為一些較新的解決方案可能具有高於平均水平的潛力。的確如此——對於那些一直關注我們的朋友來說，如果我們不斷重複諸如遠端圖像、分析和遠端資訊處理之類的概念，可能會覺得沒有什麼新鮮的東西。在資料分析領域，尤其是在垂直市場資料分析領域，需要一段時間才能達到拐點，然後才能達到拐點。這就是我們公司內部運作的有效機制。所以不要誤解我們回到相同主題的意思，當你試圖解讀我們在任何特定時期內的發展時，你可能試圖建立某種 1:1 的等效關係。當解決方案最終發揮作用時，其走向與最初設想相比，實際上發生了不尋常的變化。因此，正如您所想，我們每天每時每刻都在竭盡全力地工作，以站穩腳跟，並不斷為產品線注入新的解決方案。所以，不，我不這麼認為——並不是說新的解決方案不如我們3到5年前開發的解決方案有潛力。馬克，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

The only thing I was going to highlight, too, is I think we have a preference, like I assume our colleagues on the phone do, that we would prefer a subscription-type model. So as opposed to kind of going at it from a transaction perspective, we'd like to try and create long-term contracts with customers and the revenue rec on that is slower. So that is the way we feel that they'll use us for all of their transactions as opposed to selected ones, if you're going to try to price it on any transactions. So maybe a little bit of a patient philosophy but that's the way we typically work those types of solutions into our revenue mix.

我唯一想強調的是，我認為我們和電話那頭的同事一樣，都更傾向於訂閱模式。因此，我們不希望僅僅從交易的角度出發，而是希望與客戶建立長期合同，而這種合約的收入回收速度較慢。所以我們認為，如果你要對任何交易進行定價，他們就會選擇我們來完成所有交易，而不是只選擇部分交易。所以，或許我們有點偏向患者理念，但這正是我們通常將這類解決方案融入收入組合的方式。

And then at the Investor Day in December, you talked about a $2 billion TAM for Argus. I'm wondering if there are opportunities for you to go after that market in a bigger way, with incremental investments in sales or new product development or perhaps more transformative M&A?

然後在 12 月的投資者日上，您談到了 Argus 的 20 億美元潛在市場規模。我想知道貴公司是否有機會以更大的力度進軍該市場，例如透過增加銷售或新產品開發方面的投資，或進行更具變革性的併購？

It's sort of the reverse order on your question. The acquisition of Fintellix, for example, we really do believe puts us on a different foot in global markets. And there are other solutions, other, I would call them, kind of point solutions, data analytic point solutions, that relate strongly to things that we already do today that we are interested in thinking about and that would be a combination of buy and build. But otherwise, the way that the Argus business advances is basically, we present credentials to companies that aren't customers. They find out the speed with which they can begin to commercialize the insight that we bring them from a data analytic perspective. So in a sense, I agree with the tone of your question in that the more that we can do to present credentials to an ever-expanding set of customers, the more of that we can do the better. That said, I think, we've got a great team and I think we're doing a good job of that. But we're always leading into how can we take this wonderful platform and leverage it.

這和你的問題順序正好相反。例如，我們確實相信，收購 Fintellix 將使我們在全球市場上佔據不同的地位。還有其他解決方案，我稱之為其他的點解決方案，數據分析點解決方案，它們與我們今天正在做的事情密切相關，也是我們有興趣思考的事情，這些解決方案是購買和構建的結合。但除此之外，Argus 的業務發展方式基本上是，我們向非客戶公司展示資格證明。他們會發現，他們可以以多快的速度將我們從數據分析的角度帶給他們的見解商業化。從某種意義上說，我同意你問題的語氣，即我們越能向不斷擴大的客戶群展示資質，我們做得越多就越好。話雖如此，我認為我們擁有一支很棒的團隊，而且我認為我們在這方面做得很好。但我們始終關注的是如何利用這個絕佳的平台。

Your next question is from the line of Joseph Foresi of Cantor Fitzgerald.

你的下一個問題來自約瑟夫·福雷西的坎托·菲茨杰拉德家族。

I was wondering if you could talk about the margin outlook. Have you adjusted the costs based on the slow start? And how much of the margin outlook is dependent on the growth this year?

我想請您談談利潤率前景。你們是否已根據開局緩慢的情況調整了成本？利潤率前景在多大程度上取決於今年的成長？

Yes. Well, thanks for the question. I think, as I mentioned, as we were talking through the quarter, we were modest in the growth in the quarter. Expenses grew about 3.3%. We are within that, investing in the new solutions and also making sure that we've got the capacity as revenue ramps. So I guess the way I would think about it is we don't manage those expenses quarter-by-quarter, because we are managing for the long-term growth. Certainly, as -- if you see revenue ramp, that's helpful to margins as we go through the year. But what we want to make sure that we're not doing is we're not being reactive to unusual, short-term events and disadvantaging ourselves for the long term.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為，正如我之前提到的，在我們討論本季業績時，我們本季的成長比較溫和。支出成長了約 3.3%。我們正在積極投資新的解決方案，同時也確保我們有能力應對收入成長。所以我認為，我們不會按季度管理這些費用，因為我們著眼於長期成長。當然，如果收入成長，這對全年的利潤率是有幫助的。但我們想要確保的不是對不尋常的短期事件做出反應，從而在長期內損害自身利益。

Okay. And then on the energy front, how much of the rebound is dependent on oil prices and CapEx versus selling the new solutions?

好的。那麼在能源方面，反彈有多少取決於油價和資本支出，又有多少取決於新解決方案的銷售？

It's a mix of both. But when we talk about pricing and we talk about the energy business, it's not the case that there's one-to-one correspondence between what the price of the commodity does and our growth opportunity. It is true that there has been -- the shape of the price curve over the course of the last couple of years is one that hasn't been seen for several decades. It's a very unusual moment. Actually, if you think about it, the WoodMac business, there were 2 once-in-a-generation things that have happened in the course of the last 2 years. One is that, the shape of the price curve is extremely unusual. And the other is Britain exited the EU and the effect that it's had on their currency. Those are 2 really big effects, both of which are relatively difficult to foresee. In spite of all that, actually, I think the strength that WoodMac has seen is more than it has ever been. But back to your specific point. I think that what you need is -- what we need is essentially where we're getting to, which is a stable environment, one where our resource company customers are making money, leaning into investments on the front foot, basically. They got, understandably, very defensive beginning late in 2014, when several of them had to borrow money to pay their dividends. So these very, very major macro effects. But as they wash out -- one of the things about Verisk is we're in the business of growing faster than the underlying markets -- vertical markets that we serve and we've essentially always done that. We've been doing that, 2016, 2017 we will -- I mean, that's who we are; that's what we do.

兩者兼而有之。但是，當我們談論定價和能源業務時，商品價格的走勢與我們的成長機會之間並不是一一對應的關係。的確如此——過去幾年價格曲線的形狀是幾十年來從未出現過的。這是一個非常不尋常的時刻。實際上，如果你仔細想想，對於 WoodMac 的業務來說，在過去的兩年裡發生了兩件百年一遇的事情。一是價格曲線的形狀極為不尋常。另一個問題是英國脫歐及其對英國貨幣的影響。這是兩個非常大的影響，而且都比較難預測。儘管如此，我認為 WoodMac 目前所展現出的實力比以往任何時候都更加強大。回到你剛才提出的具體問題。我認為你需要的——我們真正需要的，基本上就是我們正在努力達到的目標，那就是一個穩定的環境，一個我們的資源公司客戶能夠賺錢、積極主動地進行投資的環境。從 2014 年末開始，他們的防禦姿態變得非常強硬，這是可以理解的，因為當時他們中的一些人不得不借錢來支付股息。所以這些都是非常、非常重大的宏觀影響。但隨著它們逐漸消失——Verisk 的特點之一是，我們的業務成長速度要超過我們所服務的垂直市場——而且我們基本上一直都是這樣做的。我們一直都在這樣做，2016年、2017年我們也會這樣做──我的意思是，這就是我們；這就是我們所做的。

And your next question is from the line of Arash Soleimani of KBW.

你的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Arash Soleimani 的問題。

A couple of questions. So first, I just wanted to ask, within energy and specialized, how much of the decline came from WoodMac versus environmental health and safety? And then just continuing on that question, how much of that was subscription versus transactional?

幾個問題。首先，我想問一下，在能源和專業領域，伍德麥肯錫的下滑有多少是由於伍德麥肯錫造成的，又有多少是由於環境、健康和安全造成的？然後繼續這個問題，其中有多少是訂閱收入，又有多少是交易收入？

So if you were to look in the segment, you're right. Those are the 2 key pieces within there. Obviously, WoodMac is a larger business in our environmental health and safety business, although I would say that in the quarter its performance was better than that smaller business. So there's sort of a balance between the 2. As I said earlier, we still have some lag effects from previous periods in WoodMac. I mean, that's the nature of subscription businesses. And so that did contribute to a bit of the decline in the quarter. Also remember, you've got -- we've got a lot of numbers in front of you now. You've got 3 different growth rates per line. So if you're looking at the absolute reported, the currency effect from WoodMac would be the largest impact and I think I talked about, about $7.5 million in the quarter.

所以如果你查看那段內容，你是對的。這是其中的兩個關鍵部分。顯然，伍德麥肯在我們環境健康與安全業務領域是一家規模較大的公司，儘管我認為它在本季度的業績比那家規模較小的公司要好。所以這兩者之間某種程度上是一種平衡。正如我之前所說，WoodMac 仍然存在一些來自前幾個時期的滯後效應。我的意思是，這就是訂閱製商業模式的本質。因此，這確實導致了該季度業績略有下滑。還有，請記住，你面前有很多數字。每條線有 3 種不同的成長率。所以，如果你看的是絕對報告值，伍德麥肯錫的匯率影響將是最大的影響，我想我之前說過，這在該季度造成了約 750 萬美元的影響。

And then I have a question that's probably very, very, very long term in nature. But just as we look at technology that's making cars safer and that ultimately will even make cars drive themselves, which will increase safety even more, that could have a very negative impact on auto premiums longer term. I'm just curious how that impacts Verisk.

然後我還有一個問題，這個問題可能涉及非常、非常、非常長遠的方面。但是，當我們審視那些使汽車更安全，最終甚至使汽車自動駕駛的技術時，這將進一步提高安全性，但從長遠來看，這可能會對汽車保費產生非常負面的影響。我只是好奇這會對 Verisk 產生什麼影響。

Yes. Let me take that on. I mean, clearly, that's on the minds of our personal lines of writers. The insurance industry as a whole, I think, has a view that that's going to make for a safer long-term environment for people on the road. It can save 1 million or more lives per year. And I think there's some views out there, you can kind of do your own research, that the personal auto premium could be something that looks maybe half of what it is today. I think those customers are looking to ways to kind of reimagine their business and I think a lot of it has to do with moving into what I'll call small commercial lines. So micro business owners work on the cyber side of things. That very much fits our model. That's very helpful. They want to try to move into what is kind of a personal lines flow, meaning just do it in an expert away without people involved, and they want to move that concept, which is on the personal lines side to commercial. So those fit well into what we're trying to help them do that. The other thing I think we should just remember as a whole, a large part of the risk throughout the world is either uninsured or underinsured. And I think that's the biggest opportunity for the industry as a whole. There's a need there, and I think the industry needs to find ways to ensure what is a very, very large market opportunity with better analytics and ways to assess that risk. So longer term, bigger picture, but (inaudible) respond to.

是的。讓我來做這件事。我的意思是，很顯然，這是我們公司內部編劇一直在考慮的問題。我認為，整個保險業都認為，這將為道路上的人們創造一個更安全的長期環境。它每年可以挽救一百萬人甚至更多的生命。我認為有些人認為（你可以自己做些調查），個人汽車保險費可能會只有現在的一半左右。我認為這些客戶正在尋求重新構想其業務的方式，我認為這很大程度上與他們轉向我稱之為小型商業保險的領域有關。所以，微型企業主主要從事網路方面的工作。這非常符合我們的模型。那很有幫助。他們想嘗試轉型到類似個人保險流程的模式，也就是說，由專家獨立完成，無需人員參與，他們想把這種個人保險的概念推廣到商業領域。所以這些都非常適合我們想要幫助他們實現的目標。我認為我們應該記住的另一點是，全世界很大一部分風險要不是沒有保險，就是保險不足。我認為這對整個產業來說，是最大的機會。這方面存在需求，我認為該行業需要找到方法，透過更好的分析和風險評估方法來確保抓住這個非常非常大的市場機會。所以從長遠來看，從大局來看，但（聽不清楚）回應。

I would just add that one of the things that will always be the case is, almost regardless of the size of the segment, the participants will still need to understand where they stand relative to the overall marketplace and part of what we do is, we really help get a handle on what's affecting the whole space and also the relativity -- excuse me, the relativities between the players. That will be an enduring need. So it's not just the scale of the market. It's also the need to pick apart what's going on in the market.

我只想補充一點，有一點始終不變，那就是無論細分市場規模大小，參與者仍然需要了解自己在整個市場中的位置。而我們所做的工作，有一部分是幫助大家真正了解影響整個領域的因素，以及參與者之間的相對關係──抱歉，是參與者之間的相對關係。這將是一項長期存在的需求。所以，問題不只在於市場規模。此外，還需要仔細分析市場正在發生的事情。

And your next question is from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Jeff Silber。

It's Henry Chien calling in for Jeff. I just wanted to make sure I understand in terms of the trends in insurance in the Decision Analytics side. I understand there's a number of moving parts in terms of the revenue growth. Just from an earnings growth perspective, is that tracking sort of in line with your organic growth post or excluding the true-up revenue? And as a follow-up to that, in terms of your ramp-up that you expect from the new products in insurance, is that also the ramp-up that you expect in earnings as well?

我是亨利·錢，替傑夫打電話。我只是想確保我了解決策分析方面保險業的趨勢。我知道營收成長涉及諸多因素。僅從獲利成長的角度來看，這是否與您先前發布的自然成長數據基本一致，還是不包括調整後的收入？其次，關於您預期保險業新產品的成長，您是否也預期獲利會隨之成長？

Yes. So there're a couple of questions in there. So maybe just to start with. I think your first question is when you say profitability, I presume you're speaking on an EBITDA level. And what I would say is, I mean, what you see across the company is, we're managing expense growth to both fund the existing solutions as well as new ones and I would say that's the same within insurance. So I don't think you'd see dramatically different trends if you were to sort of parse apart the profitability by vertical, because we are investing across all of the verticals. I would also note that in the acquisition front, there are a number of new acquisitions. In the quarter, those were essentially across all the acquisitions breakeven. Those are things that we're clicking into our existing business and we think that those margins will ramp. So we have those 2 effects within the margin. And then, I think, your second question was with regards to new products and the profitability of those as those sort of click in. Generally, similar to the rest of our solutions, the whole idea of build it once, sell it a lot of times, the more you put on the top line, the greater the profitability expands. Mark, I don't know if you want to add anything additional about any specific solutions we're working on there?

是的。裡面有幾個問題。或許就從這裡開始吧。我認為你的第一個問題是，當你提到獲利能力時，我假設你指的是 EBITDA 層面。我想說的是，在整個公司，我們都在努力控制支出成長，為現有解決方案和新解決方案提供資金，我認為保險業的情況也是如此。所以，我認為即使按垂直行業細分盈利能力，也不會看到截然不同的趨勢，因為我們在所有垂直行業都有投資。我還想指出，在收購方面，有不少新的收購案。本季度，所有收購項目基本上都實現了盈虧平衡。我們正在將這些元素融入我們現有的業務中，我們認為這些利潤率將會提高。所以，這兩種效應都在考慮範圍內。然後，我認為你的第二個問題是關於新產品以及這些產品在逐漸流行起來後的獲利能力。總的來說，與我們的其他解決方案類似，其核心理念是“一次構建，多次銷售”，投入越多，利潤增長就越大。馬克，我不知道你是否想就我們正在研究的具體解決方案補充什麼內容？

So I think we were trying to address this a little bit before. I mean, I think we are seeing uptake in some of the remote imagery. I think we're seeing some uptake in our customers with telematics. I think we have good growth and opportunities internationally. The way we've contracted around that will be probably more subscription that it is of a transaction perspective. So as that uptake is more of a second half story, we would also see that as hopefully helping margins because what happens here is we've already invested in or are investing in those solutions. So it's just the overall dynamic of the nature of our business. Yes, there's a lot of costs that are there and they'll remain because we're investing and once we start the uptake in revenues, there's not a lot of variable incremental costs with new sales.

所以我覺得我們之前已經嘗試解決這個問題了。我的意思是，我認為我們正在看到一些遙感影像的接收情況有所改善。我認為我們看到客戶對車載資訊服務的需求正在增長。我認為我們在國際市場上擁有良好的發展前景和機會。我們圍繞這一點達成的協議，從交易的角度來看，可能更偏向訂閱模式。因此，由於這種普及更多發生在下半年，我們也希望這能有助於提高利潤率，因為我們已經投資或正在投資這些解決方案。所以，這就是我們業務性質的整體動態。是的，成本確實很多，而且會一直存在，因為我們在投資，一旦收入開始成長，新銷售帶來的可變增量成本就不會太多了。

And your next question is from the line of Anj Singh of Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的安吉·辛格。

I think you folks spoke to some of the contract signings slipping out of 1Q for your energy customers. Is that just timing randomness perhaps? Or is this indicative of the end market that continues to stabilize? Just wondering if there's anything particular we should be taking away from that anecdote.

我認為你們之前已經談到過一些能源客戶在第一季未能成功簽署合約的情況。這或許只是時間上的隨機性造成的？或者，這是否顯示終端市場持續趨於穩定？我只是想知道，我們應該從這個軼事中得到什麼特別的啟示。

Yes, the comment was about the financial services segment, not the energy segment. And no, there is -- it really was just timing.

是的，這則評論是針對金融服務領域的，而不是能源領域。不，確實沒有——這真的只是時機問題。

Okay. Okay, got you. And then another question on the 20 opportunities, Scott, asked slightly differently. Realizing these are longer-term opportunities, would it be fair to say that the internal augmentation or development focus is also primarily on remote imagery and telematics? Perhaps, if you can offer any color on which ones you've made the most progress recently aside from their good market traction.

好的。好的，明白了。然後，史考特，關於這 20 個機會，我又換了一個方式問了另一個問題。考慮到這些都是長期機遇，是否可以說內部增強或開發重點也主要集中在遠端影像和遠端資訊處理方面？或許，除了良好的市場反應之外，您能否透露一下最近在哪些方面取得了最大進展？

Yes, it really is remote imagery and telematics. Those are the places where -- they both represent very large opportunities and places where we're seeing commercial response to what it is we're doing. So we've talked about those a lot. We continue -- we will continue for years to talk about those a lot because they're just that important. But there are a lot of things on the list of 20 that are very exciting across all the segments. And some of them are domestically based. Some of them are globally based. They all really rely on advanced data analytic methods and in many cases are being founded on new kinds of contributory data, unique data that will help us to do things we think others won't be able to. So it's an exciting agenda, basically. You get to a list like that by being close to your customers and understanding where their needs are going.

是的，它確實是遠端成像和遠端資訊處理技術。這些地方——它們都代表著巨大的機遇，也是我們看到商業對我們所做的一切做出積極回應的地方。我們已經多次討論過這些問題了。我們將繼續下去——而且在未來幾年裡，我們將繼續大量討論這些問題，因為它們真的非常重要。但這份包含 20 項內容的清單中，有許多內容在各個領域都非常令人興奮。其中一些公司總部設在國內。其中一些公司業務遍及全球。它們都非常依賴先進的數據分析方法，並且在許多情況下都是建立在新型的貢獻數據之上的，這些獨特的數據將幫助我們做我們認為其他人無法做的事情。所以，總的來說，這是一個令人興奮的議程。想要獲得這樣的客戶名單，就要與客戶保持密切聯繫，了解他們的需求發展方向。

And your next question is from the line of James Friedman of Susquehanna.

你的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的詹姆斯·弗里德曼家族。

Most of my questions have been answered. But, Eva, kind of housekeeping one. Could -- you were going kind of quick there when you were giving the adjusted Q2, Q3, Q4 '16 revenues. I was wondering if you could repeat that. What I mean was the $490 million, $505 million.

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。但是，伊娃，算是家事吧。——你在公佈 2016 年第二季、第三季和第四季調整後的營收時，語速有點快。我想問一下，您能再說一次嗎？我的意思是 4.9 億美元，5.05 億美元。

Yes. Sorry, if I was going too quick on that. So just to repeat. If we looked at 2Q 2016 and restate it at today's currency rates, that would've been $490 million, the reported number was $498 million. For Q3 '16, it would've been $494 million. The reported number was $498 million. And for Q4 '16, it would've been $505 million and the reported number was $506 million.

是的。抱歉，如果我剛才說得太快了。再重複一遍。如果我們回顧 2016 年第二季度，並以今天的匯率重新計算，那將是 4.9 億美元，而報道的數字是 4.98 億美元。2016 年第三季度，這一數字將達到 4.94 億美元。據報道，金額為 4.98 億美元。2016 年第四季度，實際數字應為 5.05 億美元，而通報的數字為 5.06 億美元。

Okay. And could I just -- did that also exclude the true-up -- the true-up was [in the Q1] of '16, correct?

好的。我能否簡單地問一下——這是否也排除了調整——調整是在 2016 年第一季進行的，對嗎？

Correct. And as we've just reported, the reported number total translated at the currency rate.

正確的。正如我們剛才報導的那樣，所報告的數字總數已按匯率換算。

And your next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee of RBC.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的加里·比斯比。

This is [Tom Hanson] in for Gary. I'll be quick. I guess just the timing of the Argus contract -- I guess for the deals, have those been signed already in the quarter and, I guess, are those new contracts with existing customers or were they -- some of those tied to some of the contracts that were completed in Q1?

湯姆漢森代替加里上場。我會盡快。我猜想，Argus 合約的簽訂時間——我猜想，就這些交易而言，這些交易是否已在本季度簽署？而且，我猜想，這些是與現有客戶簽訂的新合同，還是其中一些與第一季完成的一些合約有關？

Yes, those are existing customers and as we do multiple things for our customers, there's a layering of that. But I think, as Scott said, it's a timing issue and we feel comfortable and confident with that work moving forward.

是的，這些都是現有客戶，而且由於我們為客戶提供多種服務，所以存在多層疊加的情況。但我認為，正如斯科特所說，這只是時間問題，我們對這項工作的後續進展感到滿意和有信心。

Okay, and then, I guess, with the energy and Wood Mackenzie, obviously, there's still some lag from some of your customers and the multiyear deals rolling over. I guess, can you kind of give us some more color on whether you're seeing greater demand or usage in various regions or some of the pricing terms? Or are you guys looking to lock in into longer, more longer-term deals? Or -- maybe just give us some commentary on some of the improving trends you mentioned?

好的，然後，我想，就能源和伍德麥肯錫公司而言，顯然，你們的一些客戶和多年期合約的續約仍然存在一些滯後。我想，您能否更詳細地介紹一下，您是否看到不同地區的需求或使用量增加，或者一些定價條款方面的情況？還是你們是想簽訂更長期的合約？或者—您能否就您提到的一些改進趨勢發表一些評論？

Yes. Well, a couple of different things in there. One is, the customer set continues to expand, as we've shared with you. The solution set continues to expand also where we're -- you've sort of known us as the people that can describe the global supply curve, which is extremely valuable and very hard to do and a very, very nice sort of starting place, a strong place to stand. What we will get increasingly good at is and more of our business will be about is the underlying technical conditions and helping our customers sort of navigate those as well. With respect to pricing trends, we're always just -- the WoodMac product set as all of our product sets, we're always stuffing more value in there and that's one of the things that is productive where pricing is concerned. So you've got that effect. So basically, new solutions, new customers and an improving environment where pricing is concerned. That's basically going to be the WoodMac story going forward. The currency effects will wash out and I do think that we'll see where this is the kind of thinking we're doing, but it maybe that as the environment is improving, we may actually want to be a little lighter on our feet and actually sort of pull in the length of the contracts so that we can -- as things move, we can actually enjoy it more in real time.

是的。嗯，裡面有幾樣不同的東西。其一是客戶群持續擴大，正如我們之前與您分享的。解決方案集也在擴大中——你們可能已經知道我們是能夠描述全球供應曲線的人，這非常有價值，也很難做到，而且是一個非常非常好的起點，一個強大的立足點。我們將越來越擅長的是，我們業務的更多部分將圍繞著底層技術條件展開，幫助我們的客戶應對這些條件。關於定價趨勢，我們始終——就像我們所有的產品系列一樣，WoodMac 產品系列也始終在不斷增加價值，這是定價方面行之有效的做法之一。所以你就得到了那種效果。簡而言之，就是新的解決方案、新的客戶以及不斷改善的定價環境。這基本上就是伍德麥肯錫未來發展的故事了。貨幣影響將會逐漸消失，我認為我們會看到我們正在採取的這種思維方式，但隨著環境的改善，我們或許應該更加靈活一些，縮短合約期限，以便我們能夠隨著形勢的變化，實時地享受收益。

And your next question is from the line of Andre Benjamin of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的安德烈·班傑明。

My first question on the energy revenue. I know we've asked a number on this already but, I guess, you mentioned that there were some contracts signed [at depths of] in the market and their lag nature to them. I wanted to specifically ask, are we, therefore, at the end of the worst of these lag contracts and you should actually see revenue growth improve? Or is that something we'll be playing through for the rest of the year? And therefore, growth really shouldn't pick up until closer to '18?

我的第一個問題是關於能源收入的。我知道我們已經就此問過很多人了，但是，我想，您提到過一些在市場低迷時期簽訂的合同，以及它們的滯後性。我想特別問一下，我們是否已經度過了這些滯後合約中最糟糕的時期，你們是否應該看到收入成長有所改善？或者說，這是我們今年餘下時間都要面對的問題嗎？因此，成長真正開始加速可能要等到 2018 年左右？

We would expect improvement as the year progresses.

我們預計隨著時間的推移情況會有所改善。

Okay. And then 1 housekeeping question. Just on the M&A contribution from Fintellix, if you are sharing that, as we build our models?

好的。然後還有一個家事問題。僅就Fintellix的併購貢獻而言，如果您願意分享，這將有助於我們建立模型？

Yes. Typically, for the smaller deals, we don't share that in advance. It will come in April 1. So you'll see the numbers as we report in 2Q.

是的。通常情況下，對於較小的交易，我們不會事先透露。將於4月1日公佈。所以你們會在第二季財報看到這些數據。

And there are no further questions.

沒有其他問題了。

Okay. Well, thanks everybody for joining us. Appreciate all the questions and interest in the company. And we will be back. We'll be talking with many of you between now and then, but certainly look forward to giving you our second quarter report in the near future. Thank you for your time today.

好的。謝謝大家的參與。感謝大家對公司的關注與提出的問題。我們還會回來的。從現在到那時，我們會和你們中的許多人進行交流，但我們非常期待在不久的將來向你們提供我們的第二季報告。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call, you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。