Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

沃達丰的全年業績顯示其三個最大市場的收入下降,回報低於其資本成本。該公司計劃重新設計其重點和組織,重點放在客戶、簡單性和增長上。

這包括在未來三年內減少 11,000 個職位,並將資源重新投資於客戶體驗和品牌以支持增長。該公司旨在擴大沃達丰業務並恢復在德國的競爭力。

投資者質疑戰略計劃的執行時間表,特別是關於無機行動和出售西班牙。沃達丰還在德國加速其有線網絡的光纖化,併計劃定期報告 12 項關鍵指標。

該公司正專注於歐洲和非洲,旨在為客戶提供優質、簡單的服務。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining me for our Full Year Results. Our challenge today, as you see in our results is that 3 of our largest markets have declining revenue and our returns are still below our cost of capital. Our performance relative to major competitors has also not been good enough.

    大家早上好,感謝您加入我們的全年業績。我們今天面臨的挑戰,正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣,我們最大的 3 個市場的收入在下降,而我們的回報仍然低於我們的資本成本。我們相對於主要競爭對手的表現也不夠好。

  • This requires Vodafone to change and by change, I mean a significant redesign of where we focus our efforts and how we organize ourselves. We need Empower and agile markets focused on our customers. We need to scale up Vodafone business, and we need to take out complexity and simplify how we operate. To support our transformation, we also need to focus our resources on a portfolio of products and geographies that is rightsized for growth.

    這需要沃達丰做出改變,我的意思是對我們的工作重點和組織方式進行重大重新設計。我們需要以客戶為中心的 Empower 和敏捷市場。我們需要擴大沃達丰的業務,我們需要消除複雜性並簡化我們的運營方式。為了支持我們的轉型,我們還需要將資源集中在適合增長的產品組合和地域上。

  • I've set out my road map for Vodafone in a video presentation that I hope you will have time to watch. We will deliver our transformation by focusing on 3 priorities: customers, simplicity and growth. Starting with customers, our focus has to be on what customers actually want. The simple and reliable service they expect, doing the basics well. I developed commercial authority fully into the markets in January, so decisions can happen faster and accountability is clear, with customer experience now a key element of our CEO incentive plans.

    我在視頻演示中列出了我的 Vodafone 路線圖,希望您有時間觀看。我們將通過關注 3 個優先事項來實現我們的轉型:客戶、簡單性和增長。從客戶開始,我們的重點必須放在客戶真正想要什麼上。他們期望的簡單可靠的服務,做好基礎工作。我在 1 月份將商業權威完全引入市場,因此決策可以更快地做出並且責任明確,客戶體驗現在是我們 CEO 激勵計劃的關鍵要素。

  • On simplicity, we will undergo a redesign of our group operates by making a clear distinction between headquarter corporate services, which must be as lean as possible and shared operations, which we will operate on an arms-length basis on commercial terms. As we simplify our group center, but also our market operations we have planned the reduction of 11,000 roles over the next 3 years. You may have seen announcements in Germany, Italy and our HQ recently. This simplification will increase agility in our markets. The resources, it will free up will be reinvested in customer experience and in brands to support growth, which is my third priority.

    簡而言之,我們將通過明確區分總部企業服務(必須盡可能精益)和共享運營(我們將按照商業條款在公平的基礎上運營)來重新設計我們的集團運營。隨著我們簡化集團中心和市場運營,我們計劃在未來 3 年內減少 11,000 個職位。您可能最近在德國、意大利和我們的總部看到了公告。這種簡化將提高我們市場的靈活性。將釋放的資源將重新投資於客戶體驗和品牌以支持增長,這是我的第三個優先事項。

  • The turnaround of our operations in Germany, in particular, is essential to our growth. We have delivered a number of improvements to our commercial model over the last few months, but we have more work to do to restore competitiveness. To grow we'll also scale up Vodafone business, where we have a strong position in a large and rapidly expanding market.

    尤其是我們在德國業務的轉變對我們的增長至關重要。在過去的幾個月裡,我們對我們的商業模式進行了許多改進,但我們還有更多工作要做才能恢復競爭力。為了實現增長,我們還將擴大沃達丰業務,我們在這個龐大且快速擴張的市場中擁有強大的地位。

  • Our service revenue exit rate was around 3% in Q4, with all Europe markets growing in FY '23, [accepts pay]. We are already investing in deploying new SME customer journeys and enhancing our sales management with new incentives to drive penetration of digital services.

    我們的服務收入退出率在第四季度約為 3%,所有歐洲市場在 23 財年都在增長,[接受報酬]。我們已經在投資部署新的 SME 客戶旅程,並通過新的激勵措施加強我們的銷售管理,以推動數字服務的滲透。

  • Before handing over to questions, let me reiterate. Vodafone must change, and we will change the level of ambition, speed and the sizes of execution. Thank you.

    在開始提問之前,讓我重申一下。沃達丰必須改變,我們將改變雄心、速度和執行規模。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our first question today comes from Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs.

    我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的 Andrew Lee。

  • Andrew J. Lee - Equity Analyst

    Andrew J. Lee - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Just had a question on your strategic plan, which is very clear, and I think it gets all the right notes in terms of ambition. But I guess the key question that we're getting from investors is how quickly you will see evidence of execution on our strategic plan, particularly where the inorganic actions are implied. And obviously that question touches on the outlook for in-market mobile consolidation deals, but also on a decision on our sale of Spain, which is now on the strategic review.

    是的。剛剛有一個關於你的戰略計劃的問題,它非常明確,我認為它在雄心方面得到了所有正確的說明。但我想我們從投資者那裡得到的關鍵問題是,你將多快看到我們戰略計劃執行的證據,特別是在暗示無機行動的地方。顯然,這個問題涉及市場內移動整合交易的前景,但也涉及我們出售西班牙的決定,該決定目前正在進行戰略審查。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Andrew. Major changes coming for us. And as you know, in telcos, we are a momentum business. So time wise, I think it will take time to see all the benefits from the transformation flowing through in our results. I think the first thing you will see there is the impact of our simplification. As you've heard, we are taking out layers to make our HQ leaner, and we are also transforming our shared operations plus in the markets, we are really reviewing how we are on our consumer operations.

    謝謝你,安德魯。重大變化即將到來。如您所知,在電信公司,我們是一家勢頭強勁的企業。所以從時間上看,我認為需要時間才能看到轉型帶來的所有好處在我們的結果中流淌。我認為您首先會看到我們簡化的影響。正如你所聽到的,我們正在分層以使我們的總部更精簡,我們也在改變我們的共享運營加上在市場上,我們真的在審查我們在消費者運營方面的表現。

  • This simplification will make us faster in how we go to market, and that's the main objective, but they will also drive efficiencies. And the other thing you will start seeing happening already in these months, is that we will be able to reinvest these efficiencies in customer experience and in brand, as I was mentioning earlier. These are big changes for us. I'm not sure how much of that, of course, is already understandable externally. But -- it's not just about numbers. It's really about how we operate.

    這種簡化將使我們更快地進入市場,這是主要目標,但它們也會提高效率。在這幾個月裡,您將開始看到另一件事,那就是我們將能夠將這些效率重新投資於客戶體驗和品牌,正如我之前提到的那樣。這些對我們來說是很大的變化。當然,我不確定其中有多少已經可以從外部理解。但是——這不僅僅是數字。這真的是關於我們如何運作。

  • The fact that now the markets will be fully autonomous in taking decisions related to their customers and their commercial strategy will make us faster. And I will never stress enough, both externally and internally, the importance for me on focusing on our customers and focusing on what our customers really want. So simplification first with reinvestment. But of course, we will need to do more, as you mentioned, both organically and inorganically.

    事實上,現在市場將完全自主地做出與他們的客戶和他們的商業戰略相關的決策,這將使我們更快。無論是對內還是對內,我都不會過分強調關注客戶和關注客戶真正想要的東西的重要性。因此,首先通過再投資進行簡化。但是,當然,正如您提到的,我們需要做更多的有機和無機工作。

  • And I understand the question on timing. Let me share how we look at things. If the returns are below cost of capital in any market, it means we will have to look at structural change options there, but it's very clear to me that each and every transaction, each and every opportunity will have to be assessed on its merits. And so I'm sorry, but it doesn't make sense to me to set any arbitrary time lines on the inorganic side. It's let me just reiterate, it's a priority. So organic and inorganic change are both a priority to drive long-term shareholder value.

    我理解時間問題。讓我分享一下我們如何看待事物。如果任何市場的回報低於資本成本,這意味著我們將不得不考慮那裡的結構變化選項,但我很清楚,每筆交易、每一個機會都必鬚根據其優點進行評估。所以我很抱歉,但在無機方面設置任何任意時間線對我來說沒有意義。讓我重申一下,這是一個優先事項。因此,有機和無機變革都是推動長期股東價值的優先事項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Polo Tang at UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Polo Tang。

  • Polo Tang - MD & Head of Telecom Research

    Polo Tang - MD & Head of Telecom Research

  • Just have a question on Germany. So trends have weakened notably in Q4, both in terms of financials and subscribers. Now you've recently put through a 10% price increases on broadband. So what is the risk that subscriber losses accelerate from here and that you have to start discounting to retain or stabilize your base. So what gives you the confidence that Germany, is that a trough that things will improve from here? And can you maybe touch on NPS trends in Germany and how you think about the trajectory of German service revenue growth from here?

    只是問一個關於德國的問題。因此,無論是在財務方面還是在訂戶方面,第四季度的趨勢都明顯減弱。現在您最近將寬帶價格上漲了 10%。那麼訂戶流失從這裡加速的風險是什麼,你必須開始打折以保留或穩定你的基礎。那麼,是什麼讓你相信德國是一個從這裡開始改善的低谷?您能否談談德國的 NPS 趨勢以及您如何看待德國服務收入增長的軌跡?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Polo. We'll try to take all this point and in general, give you the perspective of what's happening in Germany, starting from the service revenue trajectory, you should expect to see a step change in growth in Germany already in Q1 as we are going through it now. And this will also enable a reacceleration of growth within Europe. It's not the only component. Other markets are also improving, but Europe will reaccelerate now. And the same is true, by the way, for the group overall because the one-offs we had in Vodacom in Q4 won't recur. So expect, first and foremost, a reacceleration from here, at Germany level.

    謝謝你,波羅。我們將嘗試抓住所有這些要點,總的來說,從服務收入軌跡開始,讓您了解德國正在發生的事情,您應該期望在我們正在經歷的第一季度看到德國增長的階躍變化現在。這也將使歐洲內部的增長重新加速。它不是唯一的組成部分。其他市場也在改善,但歐洲現在將重新加速。順便說一下,對於整個集團來說也是如此,因為我們在第四季度在 Vodacom 的一次性交易不會再發生。因此,首先要期待德國層面的重新加速。

  • In terms of then the moving parts there, I think we have said it before, but our execution in Germany has been consistently disappointing as we were going through the challenges of the pandemic, the telco law, you've heard this before. But also, it's fair to say that from a competitiveness perspective, we have been a little bit left behind by the evolution of the market as we were busy addressing our internal issues. The market, in particular, in mobile has evolved towards new propositions around family plans, loyalty programs, and we have not really been part of these conversations so far, which is why you mentioned we are making some changes. So we are really taking action to re-engineer our commercial model in Spain very broadly around pricing, around products, around channels, really pulling all the levers.

    就當時的活動部分而言,我想我們之前已經說過,但我們在德國的執行一直令人失望,因為我們正在經歷大流行病、電信法的挑戰,你之前已經聽說過。但是,公平地說,從競爭力的角度來看,由於我們忙於解決內部問題,我們已經被市場的發展落在了後面。市場,尤其是移動市場,已經朝著圍繞家庭計劃、忠誠度計劃的新主張發展,到目前為止我們還沒有真正參與這些對話,這就是為什麼你提到我們正在做出一些改變。因此,我們真的在採取行動,在西班牙非常廣泛地圍繞定價、產品、渠道重新設計我們的商業模式,真正拉動所有槓桿。

  • First, let me cover pricing, fixed broadband. You mentioned there are price increases. The way we are looking at it is we have seen a significant quality step-up in our cable products as we have accelerated our investment in fiberization in the market. There is a slide also talking to that in the presentation. And we now have a fixed broadband service, which has just been voted actually by an external benchmark the best in the market. This has allowed us to reset the pricing to the level where it should have been. We first changed the retail pricing in November. As you know, and now we are going through an execution on segments of our customer base of repricing, and this will keep us busy for the first half of the year.

    首先,讓我談談固定寬帶的定價。你提到有價格上漲。我們看待它的方式是,隨著我們加快對市場光纖化的投資,我們已經看到我們的電纜產品質量有了顯著提高。演示文稿中也有一張幻燈片與此相關。我們現在擁有固定寬帶服務,實際上剛剛被外部基準投票選為市場上最好的。這使我們能夠將定價重置到應有的水平。我們首先在 11 月更改了零售價。如您所知,現在我們正在對部分客戶群執行重新定價,這將使我們在上半年忙碌。

  • Clearly, there is and there will be a trade-off between pricing and customer numbers. And you should expect to see some additional churn from the execution of the back book repricing on the base. But of course, this will be accretive to value and supporting our service revenue trajectory.

    顯然,定價和客戶數量之間存在並且將會存在權衡。而且您應該期望看到在基礎上執行後書重新定價會帶來一些額外的流失。但當然,這將增加價值並支持我們的服務收入軌跡。

  • And then more broadly, in terms of competitiveness in mobile, there is much more to do, but you have seen us active in the market with above-the-line campaigns on partner card in February, reset of our mobile promotion lineup in April. We now have family plans coming out for June, and there will be more propositions coming through over time. Altogether, these actions will support the re-acceleration I was talking about before.

    然後更廣泛地說,就移動領域的競爭力而言,還有很多工作要做,但你已經看到我們活躍在市場上,2 月份在合作夥伴卡上開展了線上活動,4 月份重新設置了我們的移動促銷陣容。我們現在有 6 月份的家庭計劃,隨著時間的推移會有更多的提案通過。總而言之,這些行動將支持我之前談到的重新加速。

  • Just checking that I have addressed all your points. NPS, on cable. We are now well above the pre-pandemic level of our NPS and it actually keeps increasing. So please do it our trajectory there.

    只是檢查我是否已經解決了您的所有問題。 NPS,在電纜上。我們現在遠高於大流行前的 NPS 水平,而且它實際上還在不斷增加。所以請在那裡做我們的軌跡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Georgios at Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Georgios。

  • Georgios Ierodiaconou - Research Analyst

    Georgios Ierodiaconou - Research Analyst

  • Another follow-up on Germany, if you don't mind. I'm just curious just to be a bit more specific about the trend of customer numbers in the coming quarters because my understanding is the price increases were notified around March. There's usually a bit of a delay in the customers notifying and then churning away. So should we expect the next couple of quarters to be weaker than what we've seen in the fourth quarter of last year?

    如果你不介意的話,還有一個關於德國的後續行動。我只是想更具體地了解未來幾個季度的客戶數量趨勢,因為我的理解是價格上漲是在 3 月份左右通知的。客戶通知通常會有一點延遲,然後就會流失。那麼我們是否應該預期接下來的幾個季度會比我們在去年第四季度看到的更弱?

  • And maybe just to follow up on that, in anticipation of the changes in the rental privilege next year, are you aiming to take action for customer numbers to start growing strongly ahead of that, just to offset perhaps the headwinds you may have on the top line in the next 12 to 18 months when that regulation kicks in?

    也許只是為了跟進,預計明年租賃特權的變化,你是否打算採取行動讓客戶數量在此之前開始強勁增長,只是為了抵消你可能遇到的不利因素在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內該法規何時生效?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Georgios. On the customer numbers now, you're absolutely right. Things will get worse before they get better because we will see in the first half of this year, the incremental churn that we will get from the base repricing. I need to say, we are quite pleased with where we are. We have done trials before our executions and the churn level we are seeing at the moment on our cable customers, talking about low-single-digit are well in line with the trials and better than the business case. But of course, they will affect the net debt numbers.

    謝謝你,喬治斯。關於現在的客戶數量,你是絕對正確的。事情在好轉之前會變得更糟,因為我們將在今年上半年看到,我們將從基本重新定價中獲得增量流失。我需要說,我們對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。我們在執行之前進行了試驗,我們目前在有線電視客戶身上看到的流失水平,談論低個位數與試驗非常吻合,比商業案例更好。但當然,它們會影響淨債務數字。

  • In terms of, therefore, fixed broadband net adds, which I think is your focus, also thinking about the future of TV. You should wait for the second half of the year to see the customer numbers re-accelerating. But of course, all these moves, let me reiterate it once more are value accretive and we'll see the impact on our service revenue trajectory.

    因此,在固定寬帶網絡方面,我認為這是您關注的焦點,同時也在考慮電視的未來。你應該等到下半年才能看到客戶數量重新加速增長。但是,當然,所有這些舉措,讓我再次重申,都是增值的,我們將看到對我們服務收入軌蹟的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question this morning comes from Nick Delfas at Redburn.

    我們今天早上的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Nick Delfas。

  • Nick Delfas

    Nick Delfas

  • Just a question on the dividend, Margherita. I'm interested in how you and the Board think about the dividend in FY '24? And what are the parameters they're going to watch to judge dividend sustainability?

    只是關於股息的問題,瑪格麗特。我對您和董事會如何看待 24 財年的股息感興趣?他們要觀察哪些參數來判斷股息的可持續性?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Nick. As we had anticipated, the Board has reviewed our overall capital allocation at the completion of the Towers transaction and we have reviewed all our 3 priorities: leverage, capital investment and returns to shareholders. As far as leverage is concerned, we are now at around 2.5x. And this is the level we are comfortable with in the context of our overall environment from a broader macro perspective. Also from a capital investment, you have seen us now in the post Vantage world at around 17%, and that's also where we are comfortable to be in. And as a result, I've reconfirmed the dividend at [$0.09].

    謝謝你,尼克。正如我們所預料的那樣,董事會在 Towers 交易完成時審查了我們的整體資本分配,我們審查了我們所有的 3 個優先事項:槓桿、資本投資和股東回報。就槓桿而言,我們現在約為 2.5 倍。從更廣泛的宏觀角度來看,這是我們在整體環境背景下感到滿意的水平。同樣從資本投資來看,你已經看到我們現在處於 17% 左右的後 Vantage 世界,這也是我們很樂意進入的地方。因此,我再次確認股息為 [0.09 美元]。

  • Now importantly, let me say that if the shape of the group was to change materially in the future. Of course, the Board at that point would have to reevaluate our position.

    現在重要的是,讓我說如果集團的形態在未來發生重大變化。當然,屆時董事會將不得不重新評估我們的立場。

  • Nick Delfas

    Nick Delfas

  • But I also ask you the question in a slightly different way. How much extra energy costs are you bearing in FY '24 versus what you might think is going to be the case in 2 to 3 years. I know that judging energy 2 to 3 years out is difficult. But maybe what's the extra energy cost in FY '24 versus FY '20 -- FY 2023?

    但我也以稍微不同的方式問你這個問題。您在 24 財年要承擔多少額外的能源成本,而您可能認為 2 到 3 年後會出現這種情況。我知道判斷 2 到 3 年後的能量是很困難的。但也許 24 財年與 20 財年——2023 財年相比,額外的能源成本是多少?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Sure. Versus the pre-Ukraine war, we are talking about just under EUR 700 million in Europe, in FY '24. So if you do '24 versus '23 U.K. Now we know that when the peak is going to unwind. And by FY '26, we will have recovered the EUR 400 million increase that we expect in '23 against '24. So of the EUR 700 million, EUR 400 million will be unwound.

    當然。與烏克蘭戰爭前相比,我們談論的是 24 財年歐洲將近 7 億歐元。因此,如果您在英國進行 24 年與 23 年對比,現在我們知道高峰期何時結束。到 26 財年,我們將收回 23 年對 24 年預期的 4 億歐元增長。因此,在 7 億歐元中,4 億歐元將被解除。

  • Now hopefully, there is more to come, but I think there, we become a bit more speculative as we look longer term. But that's what the curves tell us today. And as you know, we have now resumed our normal hedging strategy. So 90% of the energy cost in '24 is locked in. And beyond that, we have a good level of PPAs to rely upon.

    現在希望會有更多的事情發生,但我認為,從長遠來看,我們會變得更加投機。但這就是曲線今天告訴我們的。如您所知,我們現在已經恢復了正常的對沖策略。因此,24 年 90% 的能源成本都已鎖定。除此之外,我們還可以依賴高水平的 PPA。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question this morning comes from James Ratzer at New Street.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自 New Street 的 James Ratzer。

  • James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

    James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

  • Also many congratulations on your appointment as permanent CEO for the group. And I was wondering if I could focus this morning on Germany. So I mean now you have been appointed permanent CEO, I was wondering if you could just kind of reiterate formally your views in particular on the CapEx outlook in Germany. I mean there continues to be a lot of questions about whether you might need to invest more in fiber in that market. So it would be great to get your views on that. Now you're in the CEO seat.

    也非常祝賀您被任命為該集團的永久首席執行官。我想知道我今天早上是否可以集中討論德國。所以我的意思是,現在您已被任命為常任首席執行官,我想知道您是否可以正式重申您的觀點,特別是對德國資本支出前景的看法。我的意思是,關於您是否需要在該市場的光纖上進行更多投資,仍然存在很多問題。因此,如果能了解您對此的看法,那就太好了。現在你坐在首席執行官的位置上。

  • And specifically within the kind of MDU market, you mentioned in the presentation that you've started now some initial transitions from bulk contracts to individual billing. It would be great to hear any feedback you can give on the transitions you are getting so far and success you're getting on converting people over to individual billing relationships.

    特別是在 MDU 市場中,您在演示文稿中提到您現在已經開始從批量合同到個人計費的一些初步過渡。很高興聽到您可以就您目前取得的轉變以及您在將人們轉變為個人計費關係方面取得的成功提供任何反饋。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, James. I'll start with the CapEx outlook. I was reconfirming earlier our capital intensity moreover -- more broadly for the group is now around 17% post Vantage within Germany, specifically you see that within this envelope, we are constantly accelerating the fiberization of our cable network as we do node splitting. Our run rate today of capacity addition is 2.5x what it was 2 years ago. So we have had a significant acceleration there. And we are also keeping evolving our technology road map.

    謝謝你,詹姆斯。我將從資本支出前景開始。此外,我早些時候再次確認了我們的資本密集度——更廣泛地說,該集團現在在德國境內的 Vantage 之後約為 17%,特別是你看到在這個信封內,我們在進行節點拆分時不斷加速我們有線網絡的光纖化。我們今天的產能增加率是 2 年前的 2.5 倍。所以我們在那裡有一個顯著的加速。我們也在不斷發展我們的技術路線圖。

  • In cable, we have just executed a trial in Germany of high-split DOCSIS that, as you know, has the potential to bring us to speed up to 1 Gigabit per second downlink, 3 Gigabit per -- sorry, uplink, 3 Gigabit per second downlink and we really see cable as competing effectively from a technology perspective with fiber over time. And of course, we have set up our [JV4] the dedicated fiber build of 7 million households over time. So we think we are where we should be in this space. So that's the first part.

    在電纜方面,我們剛剛在德國對高分頻 DOCSIS 進行了試驗,如您所知,它有可能使我們的下行鏈路速度達到每秒 1 吉比特,每秒 3 吉比特——對不起,上行鏈路,每秒 3 吉比特第二個下行鏈路,我們確實認為電纜從技術角度來看隨著時間的推移與光纖有效競爭。當然,隨著時間的推移,我們已經為 700 萬戶家庭建立了 [JV4] 專用光纖網絡。所以我們認為我們在這個空間裡應該在的地方。這是第一部分。

  • Housing associations and where are we on the process there. It's a 2-step process. First, we are re-contracting in framework agreements, the housing associations and then we market directly to the customers to transfer their bills across to Vodafone. We are well on to now the first part of that execution, and it has reconfirmed that we are the partner of choice of the Housing Association themselves. But we have only just started now the individual customer bills transition.

    住房協會以及我們在那裡的流程在哪裡。這是一個兩步過程。首先,我們正在重新簽訂框架協議,住房協會,然後我們直接向客戶推銷,將他們的賬單轉移到沃達丰。我們現在已經完成了執行的第一部分,它再次確認我們是住房協會自己選擇的合作夥伴。但我們現在才剛剛開始個人客戶賬單的過渡。

  • We have done a couple of trials so far. The first one which has completed has delivered a 65% redemption rate from our basic TV customers transitioning to the individual billing and we now consider this as probably near perfect execution because the 65% also coincides with the estimates we have of how many customers are actually regularly using the service within our 8.5 million households base. But it's fair to say that this was a trial, which was done with plenty of lead time, significant resources, and we have another one ongoing, which has not completed which is currently delivering only a fraction of that number. So it will be a big complex execution for us.

    到目前為止,我們已經進行了幾次試驗。第一個已經完成的已經實現了 65% 的贖回率,從我們的基本電視客戶過渡到個人計費,我們現在認為這可能是接近完美的執行,因為 65% 也與我們對實際客戶數量的估計相吻合在我們的 850 萬戶家庭中定期使用該服務。但可以公平地說,這是一項試驗,它是在大量的準備時間和大量資源的情況下完成的,我們還有另一個正在進行的試驗,但尚未完成,目前只提供了該數字的一小部分。所以這對我們來說將是一個複雜的執行。

  • In terms of financial impact, we are talking about a baseline of EUR 800 million of revenues in Germany from the MDU customers in the housing associations for basic TV. And the main impact on this would be in FY '25 because the law changes in July 24. So it doesn't touch us this year. But you may have heard us commenting this morning on the fact that some impacts would be visible already in FY '24. So important that I call this out because 3 things will happen.

    就財務影響而言,我們談論的是德國基本電視住房協會的 MDU 客戶的收入基線為 8 億歐元。對此的主要影響將出現在 25 財年,因為法律在 7 月 24 日發生了變化。所以今年它不會影響我們。但是您今天早上可能已經聽到我們評論說,一些影響在 24 財年就已經可以看到了。如此重要以至於我把它說出來是因為 3 件事會發生。

  • The first, as you have seen in our cash flow guidance is that we will have a change in working capital because the Housing Associations were typically paying services in advance for the full year. The second is going to be on customer numbers. We'll start to see migrations at scale, let's say, in Q4 from January. And as we do this, we may see oscillations in customer numbers because there may be lead times between when you disconnect the Housing Association and you actually reconnect the individual customers.

    首先,正如您在我們的現金流量指南中看到的那樣,我們的營運資金將發生變化,因為住房協會通常會提前支付全年的服務費用。第二個是關於客戶數量。我們將開始看到大規模遷移,比方說,從一月份開始的第四季度。當我們這樣做時,我們可能會看到客戶數量出現波動,因為在您斷開與住房協會的連接和您實際重新連接各個客戶之間可能會有提前期。

  • And then finally, we have already put into our budget for this year, significant resources in Germany to actually execute the transition, and I mean people, processes and commissions. So this will impact our EBITDA in Germany this year by about EUR 0.1 billion. But as I mentioned, the main impact is FY '25. And for Vodafone overall, it's worth noting that this is going to be a material headwind in '25. But we will have the unwind of the energy costs we were talking about before, which is why when we have given guidance today on EBITDA and cash flow for '24, we have been clear that this guidance has been rebased to a level, we will now deliver sustainable growth from in the midterm.

    最後,我們已經在今年的預算中投入了德國的大量資源來實際執行過渡,我的意思是人員、流程和佣金。因此,這將影響我們今年在德國的 EBITDA 約 1 億歐元。但正如我提到的,主要影響是 FY '25。對於沃達丰整體而言,值得注意的是,這將成為 25 年的重大逆風。但是我們將解除我們之前談論的能源成本,這就是為什麼當我們今天就 24 年的 EBITDA 和現金流給出指導時,我們已經明確表示該指導已經重新調整到一個水平,我們將現在從中期實現可持續增長。

  • James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

    James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

  • That's really helpful. Good color there. So just one thing on the TV migration for 35% you say you have lost on these initial trials. Have any of those been with loss of broadband customers? Or is it just pure TV only?

    這真的很有幫助。那裡的顏色很好。因此,對於 35% 的電視遷移,只有一件事你說你在這些初始試驗中失敗了。其中任何一個都與寬帶客戶流失有關嗎?還是只是純電視而已?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • TV. I'm referring to TV.

    電視。我指的是電視。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question this morning comes from Emmet Kelly at Morgan Stanley.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的埃米特凱利。

  • Emmet Bryan Kelly - Head of European Telecoms Research

    Emmet Bryan Kelly - Head of European Telecoms Research

  • Yes. Good morning, Margherita, and good morning, everyone. So my question, please, is on the phasing of EBITDA growth in full year '24. But there was clearly a difference in the phasing last year. I think it was minus 3% in H1 and broadly, last in the second half of the year, could we expect a different phasing again in full year '24 or a difference between H1 and H2? And could you maybe just refer to some of the individual countries within that mix like you did last year in terms of Germany, Italy, U.K., Spain, maybe just a couple of drivers there.

    是的。早上好,瑪格麗特,大家早上好。所以我的問題是關於 24 年全年 EBITDA 增長的分階段。但去年的分階段顯然有所不同。我認為 H1 為負 3%,並且廣泛地說,最後一次出現在今年下半年,我們是否可以期待 24 年全年再次出現不同的階段或 H1 和 H2 之間的差異?你能不能像去年在德國、意大利、英國、西班牙所做的那樣,只提到其中的一些個別國家,也許只是那裡的幾個司機。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • There will be a significant difference in phasing. You are right to point this out. We are guiding to broadly flat EBITDA for the year, but actually H1 and H2 will look different mainly because of energy. You know that energy has weighed heavily on our EBITDA performance this year in the second half, particularly in Europe. We have had a drag of 4 percentage points. And this will continue into H1 because all the impact on energy in '23 was H2-related. We had hedged before the war, all the way to basically December and then we had all this big impact in the last quarter. So now you will see that in between H1 and H2, you will have a significant energy drag in H1, and then we will normalize in the second half. Thank you.

    相位會有顯著差異。你指出這一點是對的。我們指導今年的 EBITDA 基本持平,但實際上 H1 和 H2 看起來有所不同,主要是因為能源。你知道,今年下半年,能源對我們的 EBITDA 表現影響很大,尤其是在歐洲。我們拖累了 4 個百分點。這將持續到 H1,因為 23 年對能源的所有影響都與 H2 相關。我們在戰前進行了對沖,基本上一直到 12 月,然後我們在最後一個季度產生了所有這些重大影響。所以現在你會看到在 H1 和 H2 之間,你會在 H1 中有一個顯著的能量阻力,然後我們將在下半場正常化。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Sam McHugh at Exane.

    下一個問題來自 Exane 的 Sam McHugh。

  • Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators

    Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators

  • Just a short follow-up actually on one of the questions earlier about capital allocation. We haven't seen any split dimension of the medium-term ambition of mid-single-digit EBITDA and free cash flow growth or the 2.5x to 3x leverage target. Are these still the midterm objectives in terms of leverage and free cash flow growth? And are they the right leverage targets, given that you don't consolidate or own your towers and you're losing some of the fixed infrastructure in Germany as well. So a bit more color around that will be super helpful.

    實際上只是對之前關於資本配置的一個問題的簡短跟進。我們還沒有看到中個位數 EBITDA 和自由現金流增長或 2.5 至 3 倍槓桿目標的中期目標有任何分裂。這些仍然是槓桿和自由現金流增長方面的中期目標嗎?它們是正確的槓桿目標嗎,因為你沒有合併或擁有你的塔,而且你也在失去德國的一些固定基礎設施。所以周圍多一點顏色會非常有幫助。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Sam. As you remember, in November, we called out the fact that the original midterm ambition in the current macro environment, energy and the like was going to be achievable in the same time frame. And since then, obviously, we have seen a change in perimeter of the group with the transactions in Vantage and in Hungary. So we are restarting from there.

    謝謝你,山姆。你還記得嗎,在 11 月,我們提出了這樣一個事實,即在當前宏觀環境、能源等方面,最初的中期目標將在同一時間框架內實現。從那時起,很明顯,我們已經看到集團的範圍隨著在 Vantage 和匈牙利的交易而發生變化。所以我們從那裡重新開始。

  • The ambition, of course, continued to remain to deliver return in excess of cost of capital. And actually, I was calling out earlier, as part of the transformation, we will discriminate, if you want, more strongly between the markets in which we are returning cost of capital or the segment in which we have good returns like business and make sure that we allocate our CapEx accordingly and consider inorganic structural actions where the returns are not there. So we have a clear ambition to deliver return in excess of cost of capital.

    當然,雄心壯志仍然是提供超過資本成本的回報。事實上,我早些時候曾呼籲,作為轉型的一部分,如果你願意,我們將更加區分我們正在返還資本成本的市場或我們有良好回報的細分市場,例如業務,並確保我們相應地分配我們的資本支出,並考慮在沒有回報的情況下採取無機結構行動。因此,我們有一個明確的目標,即提供超過資本成本的回報。

  • In terms of other financials, I'll go back to what I was saying earlier, we'll rebased FY '24 in EBITDA and cash flow generation as a base from which to sustainably grow in the midterm. On leverage, we have not a new range but feel that 2.5% in the current environment in terms of rate is an appropriate position to be in. So the lower end of the additional range -- sorry, original range. So that's the picture we are painting this morning.

    在其他財務方面,我將回到我之前所說的,我們將重新調整 24 財年的 EBITDA 和現金流生成,作為中期可持續增長的基礎。在槓桿方面,我們沒有新的範圍,但認為在當前環境下 2.5% 的利率是一個合適的位置。所以附加範圍的下限——抱歉,原始範圍。這就是我們今天早上描繪的畫面。

  • Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators

    Samuel McHugh - Analyst of Telecom Operators

  • So more of a focus on the return of improving versus that specific targets.

    因此,更多的是關注改進的回報而不是特定的目標。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Carl Murdock-Smith at Bernberg.

    下一個問題來自 Bernberg 的 Carl Murdock-Smith。

  • Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

    Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

  • Sorry, can you hear me?

    對不起,你能聽到我說話嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

    Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

  • Yes. Perfect. Sorry about that. I wanted to ask about the dual targets on Slide 8 of the presentation this morning, being best-in-class telco in Europe and Africa being Europe's leading platform to business. On the first of those, in terms of Europe and Africa, I was just wondering if you could expand on why they are natural [bedfellows]. And how strongly do you feel that Vodacom and the European operations naturally should belong to part of the same group.

    是的。完美的。對於那個很抱歉。我想問一下今天早上幻燈片 8 上的雙重目標,即成為歐洲一流的電信公司和非洲成為歐洲領先的商業平台。關於第一個問題,就歐洲和非洲而言,我只是想知道您是否可以進一步說明為什麼它們是天生的 [bedfellows]。你有多強烈地認為 Vodacom 和歐洲業務自然應該屬於同一集團的一部分。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • In terms of our position in Africa, it's very clear that it's one of our strongest assets. And you know that it is a strong contributor to our growth and returns. We are leading there in all the markets in which we operate. We have the leading financial services platforms also in all the markets in which we operate. So -- it's a strong contributor to creating shareholder value for the group as a whole. And we have chosen to effectively focus our efforts on these 2 regions, Europe and Africa and in both I think it's absolutely fair for us to say that we belong to the category of best-in-class operators.

    就我們在非洲的地位而言,很明顯這是我們最強大的資產之一。你知道它是我們增長和回報的重要貢獻者。我們在我們經營的所有市場中都處於領先地位。我們在我們經營的所有市場中也擁有領先的金融服務平台。所以 - 它是為整個集團創造股東價值的強大貢獻者。我們選擇有效地將我們的努力集中在歐洲和非洲這兩個地區,我認為在這兩個地區,我們可以說我們屬於一流運營商的行列,這絕對公平。

  • And for me, Carl, that doesn't mean anything more complicated than saying that we should be delivering a good quality service for our customers. So don't read anything else into it in terms of perimeters and combinations. It's about doing what our customers want and being successful in our execution. And I think we are doing very well already in Africa. We are doing very well in some markets in Europe where we are growing but not all markets in Europe.

    對我來說,卡爾,這並不比說我們應該為客戶提供優質服務更複雜。所以不要在周長和組合方面讀入任何其他內容。這是關於做我們的客戶想要的,並在我們的執行中取得成功。我認為我們在非洲已經做得很好。我們在歐洲的一些市場做得很好,我們正在增長,但不是在歐洲的所有市場。

  • And maybe you give me an opportunity here to explain a little bit better what I mean in terms of delivering good quality, simple service because we didn't have the chance to touch on this. But I believe our industry has really changed in the last few years. Our products to the customers have become much simpler in consumer, simple bundles of connectivity, fixed mobile converged. What our customers want has also changed significantly. We have plenty of data, you would expect on that.

    也許你給我機會在這裡更好地解釋我所說的提供優質、簡單的服務的意思,因為我們沒有機會談及這一點。但我相信我們的行業在過去幾年中確實發生了變化。我們向客戶提供的產品在消費者中變得更加簡單,簡單的連接捆綁,固定移動融合。我們客戶的需求也發生了顯著變化。我們有大量數據,您可能會對此有所期待。

  • And if you look, in particular, what we call our detractors, the one that rates 0 to 2 in the interactions with Vodafone, the [on-net] ones, what they are want us to improve is really this simple service I was talking about. I know it seems basic, but I think it's quite important, and I think sometimes overlooked in telcos. They want to have a good experience when they upgrade, they connect, they call the call centers. It's not about network performance. It's not about innovation, and it's not even value for money. The majority of our markets, if you were looking at the staff, you would see a very big difference in what people want more of or better off. And I think that's what we need to focus on, and it's in our DNA to work on it in Europe and Africa.

    如果您特別注意我們所說的批評者,即在與沃達丰的互動中評分為 0 到 2 的人,[在線] 人,他們希望我們改進的實際上是我所說的這項簡單服務關於。我知道這看起來很基本,但我認為它非常重要,而且我認為有時在電信公司中會被忽視。他們希望在升級、連接、呼叫呼叫中心時獲得良好的體驗。這與網絡性能無關。這不是關於創新,甚至不是物有所值。我們的大多數市場,如果你觀察員工,你會發現人們想要更多或更好的東西有很大的不同。我認為這是我們需要關注的,在歐洲和非洲致力於此是我們的 DNA。

  • Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

    Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

  • That's correct. And just you mentioned the detractors there and the importance of reducing that. On Slide 12, you've given the 12 kind of metrics that you are focused on and you've committed in the webcast this morning to update us on that. Just in terms of that, it's our commitment in the annual report every year, you'll provide KPIs along each of these 12 metrics? Or will it be more regular than that?

    這是正確的。剛才你提到了那裡的批評者以及減少批評者的重要性。在幻燈片 12 上,您提供了您關注的 12 種指標,並且您已在今天早上的網絡廣播中承諾向我們更新這方面的信息。就此而言,這是我們每年在年度報告中的承諾,您將根據這 12 個指標中的每一個指標提供 KPI?還是會比這更規律?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • The metrics are there to say that we will report regularly on those. Some of them may be significant in terms of movement on a quarterly basis or on a half year basis, presumably not all of them. So there will be a mix depending on what's appropriate. But our intention as I said in my presentation, if you have listened to it, is really to have an honest, transparent conversation about what we generally believe matters, and this is the key list for me.

    那裡的指標表明我們將定期報告這些指標。就季度或半年的變動而言,其中一些可能很重要,大概不是全部。因此,將根據適當的情況進行混合。但正如我在演講中所說,如果你聽過的話,我們的意圖實際上是就我們普遍認為重要的事情進行誠實、透明的對話,這對我來說是關鍵清單。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question this morning comes from Robert Grindle at Deutsche Bank. And Carl, if you could mute yourself and your video, please.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅伯特·格林德爾。卡爾,如果你能把自己和你的視頻靜音,請。

  • Robert James Grindle - Research Analyst

    Robert James Grindle - Research Analyst

  • I'd like to ask about your plans to arm's length your shared service centers on commercial terms. Is that mainly a cost thing, as you said, you'd consider using third parties if more efficient? Is arms lengthening also a step toward either OpCo or sub-asset divestment optionality. I remember you did similar in Egypt before proposing that sale, how long does arms lengthening take place?

    我想問一下貴方計劃按商業條款與共享服務中心保持一定距離。正如您所說,這主要是成本問題,如果效率更高,您會考慮使用第三方嗎?武器延長是否也是朝著 OpCo 或子資產撤資可選性邁出的一步。我記得你在提議出售之前在埃及做過類似的事情,手臂延長需要多長時間?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Very different circumstances, I would say, in Egypt. But why we are doing this, and then I think you're asking how long will it take? This is a real important change for me because over the years, we've been very successful, as you know, in building shared operations in areas like IT, back office, procurement. This has been a key driver for me to drive productivity in the group. And it's one of the reasons why through our scale and digitization, we've been leading then the industry benchmark on cost efficiency. But I think it would be fair to say that not all shared operations have been matched with the same level of rigor over the years. And by rigor, I mean, this commercial model, Robert.

    我會說,埃及的情況非常不同。但是我們為什麼要這樣做,然後我想你是在問這需要多長時間?這對我來說是一個真正重要的變化,因為多年來,正如您所知,我們在 IT、後台、採購等領域建立共享運營方面非常成功。這一直是我提高團隊生產力的關鍵驅動力。這也是為什麼通過我們的規模和數字化,我們一直領先於成本效率的行業基準的原因之一。但我認為可以公平地說,多年來並非所有共享業務都具有相同的嚴格程度。嚴格來說,我的意思是,這種商業模式,羅伯特。

  • I mean, essentially, [P/Q] charging model with price benchmarked to third parties and full transparency, therefore, on the business case. The reason why this is really important to me, and we have got it right in a number of areas already like our procurement or our offshore call center, we've always worked with that model. But that's not true for all the things we do centrally.

    我的意思是,從本質上講,[P/Q] 收費模型的價格以第三方為基準,因此在商業案例中完全透明。這對我來說真的很重要,而且我們已經在採購或離岸呼叫中心等許多領域做到了這一點,我們一直在使用該模型。但對於我們集中做的所有事情來說,情況並非如此。

  • The reason why it's really important is that, only if we have those measures, we know whether we are delivering on our business case, and we are getting the best service for our markets, which is why I'm saying there may be areas which have not worked so far with that level of rigor or where we may find out, we are not delivering to the business case. And in those cases, it may be true, for example, in some cases, of in-house product development we may decide there to stop the activity altogether or to source this differently.

    它真正重要的原因是,只有當我們有這些措施時,我們才能知道我們是否在交付我們的商業案例,我們是否正在為我們的市場獲得最好的服務,這就是為什麼我說可能有一些領域到目前為止還沒有以那種嚴格程度工作,或者我們可能會發現,我們沒有交付商業案例。在那些情況下,這可能是正確的,例如,在某些情況下,內部產品開發我們可能會決定完全停止活動或以不同的方式採購。

  • It's a big change for us but it's a big change as for timing that is going to happen within this year. That's the target execution that we have.

    這對我們來說是一個很大的變化,但對於將在今年內發生的時間來說,這是一個很大的變化。這就是我們的目標執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Maurice Patrick at Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的莫里斯帕特里克。

  • Maurice Graham Patrick - MD

    Maurice Graham Patrick - MD

  • Just on the free cash flow and dividend side. I mean you guide on free cash flow of EUR 3.3 billion for the year. That's, of course, before restructuring spectrum costs. Now spectrum cost is directly around EUR 1.2 billion a year, I think restructuring sort of (inaudible). I've seen in the next 12 to 24 months, maybe we're going to a period of not quite so much happening on the spectrum side. On the other side, you have got 11,000 headcount reductions. So can you give us some sense of what you think we should expect on the below the line items for the next couple of years, that would be helpful.

    就在自由現金流和股息方面。我的意思是你指導今年的自由現金流為 33 億歐元。當然,這是在重組頻譜成本之前。現在頻譜成本直接在每年 12 億歐元左右,我認為重組有點(聽不清)。我已經看到在接下來的 12 到 24 個月裡,也許我們將進入一段頻譜方面不會發生太多事情的時期。另一方面,您已裁員 11,000 人。那麼,您能否讓我們了解一下您認為我們在未來幾年應該對以下項目有何期望,這會有所幫助。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • So I think you have summarized it appropriately. So we have been guiding today to EUR 3.3 billion of free cash flow generation as a new base from which to grow in the midterm. And in the short term, from a spectrum perspective, we are past the 5G cycle and from a restructuring perspective, yes, there is a lot going on, and therefore, there will be a sizable amount into '24 and beyond. But we are well-past the peak of the restructuring costs also linked to the Liberty integration. These have now completely closed. And therefore, I think our peak was EUR 800 million in FY '22. We have had EUR 600 million this year. And although the sort of core turnover of the restructuring may increase, we will not go back to those levels.

    所以我認為你已經恰當地總結了它。因此,我們今天一直在指導 33 億歐元的自由現金流生成,作為中期增長的新基礎。在短期內,從頻譜的角度來看,我們已經過了 5G 週期,從重組的角度來看,是的,有很多事情正在發生,因此,到 24 世紀及以後會有相當大的數量。但我們已經過了重組成本的高峰期,也與 Liberty 整合有關。這些現在已經完全關閉。因此,我認為我們的峰值是 22 財年的 8 億歐元。今年我們有 6 億歐元。儘管重組的核心營業額可能會增加,但我們不會回到那些水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have time for one last question this morning, and that question comes from David Wright at Bank of America.

    今天早上我們有時間回答最後一個問題,這個問題來自美國銀行的 David Wright。

  • David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

    David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

  • Hopefully, I'm unmuted. Okay. Last question. All right. So first of all, just on Africa, investors can buy Vodacom. What is that -- what do you do with Vodacom, what is the group synergy from owning Vodacom? And why would you not ever entertain a potential approach in that asset if the price was right? And if I could just extend a little on inorganic activity, your leverage is now fine. And I think actually this year, with your EBITDA stable and the remainder of the Vantage proceeds, you're probably going to deleverage a little more. So you could be [sub-3.5] And you're comfortable with your capital allocation. Therefore, any inorganic actions that could see assets sold. What would you do with the proceeds? If leverage is fine if capital intensity is fine, then surely the proceeds come back to investors? If you could comment on that.

    希望我沒有靜音。好的。最後一個問題。好的。所以首先,就非洲而言,投資者可以購買 Vodacom。那是什麼——你對 Vodacom 做了什麼,擁有 Vodacom 的集團協同效應是什麼?如果價格合適,為什麼你永遠不會接受該資產的潛在方法?如果我能稍微擴展一下無機活動,你的槓桿現在就可以了。而且我認為實際上今年,隨著您的 EBITDA 穩定和 Vantage 收益的剩餘部分,您可能會去槓桿化更多。所以你可能 [sub-3.5] 而且你對你的資本配置感到滿意。因此,任何可以看到資產出售的無機行為。你會用收益做什麼?如果槓桿率很好,如果資本密集度很好,那麼收益肯定會返還給投資者嗎?如果你能對此發表評論。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Sure. So I will take the 2 steps, maybe starting from the leverage and the potential excess capital. We have talked about the capital allocation as it stands. And we are at 2.5%. But as you have seen, also looking at our guidance, it will take time for us to have another material step down in leverage.

    當然。所以我會採取這兩個步驟,也許從槓桿和潛在的過剩資本開始。我們已經討論了目前的資本配置。我們是 2.5%。但正如您所見,同時查看我們的指導意見,我們需要時間再大幅降低杠桿率。

  • We are guiding to broadly stable EBITDA in FY '24. And EUR 3.3 billion of free cash flow. As you do the math, you see that it will take longer to have an organic step down on leverage. And for that -- or for that matter, any other exceptional proceeds that may come, the Board will consider the situation when it presents itself, so I wouldn't prejudge on that today.

    我們正在指導 24 財年的 EBITDA 大致穩定。以及 33 億歐元的自由現金流。當您進行計算時,您會發現有機地降低杠桿率需要更長的時間。為此 - 或者就此而言,任何其他可能出現的特殊收益,董事會將在出現時考慮情況,所以我今天不會預先判斷。

  • On Vodacom, I will reiterate what I was saying earlier. It's a very strong asset for us, as a group. And of course, you mentioned options and situation. The Board will always consider options that create shareholder value, but Vodacom is a very strong contributor to our performance and our returns, which for me are really important today.

    在 Vodacom 上,我將重申我之前所說的話。作為一個團隊,這對我們來說是一項非常強大的資產。當然,你提到了選項和情況。董事會將始終考慮創造股東價值的選擇,但 Vodacom 對我們的業績和回報做出了非常強大的貢獻,這對我今天來說非常重要。

  • David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

    David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

  • But that's a stand-alone business. How does Vodafone create value through its ownership of Vodacom? What are the shared commercial services, the procurement, et cetera, that means you create value through owning that emerging market asset. And for instance, on the flip side, you create risk through 2 days ago, we had a massive spike in the currency because of typical emerging market volatility. So you create risk. So how do you create value by owning Vodacom?

    但這是一項獨立的業務。 Vodafone 如何通過其對 Vodacom 的所有權創造價值?什麼是共享商業服務、採購等,這意味著您通過擁有新興市場資產來創造價值。例如,另一方面,你在 2 天前創造了風險,由於典型的新興市場波動,我們的貨幣大幅飆升。所以你創造了風險。那麼,您如何通過擁有 Vodacom 來創造價值?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • We are used to manage emerging market volatility. Typically, what we see upcoming, but probably not the time to get into a lot of detail is that free cash flow gets hit at the time of the devaluation. But if you grow revenues ahead of inflation and cost below inflation over the cycle, you go back on the other side with growth. This has been our experience, and we are seeing already today, Turkey, where revenues are growing ahead of inflation.

    我們習慣於管理新興市場的波動。通常,我們看到即將到來但可能不是詳細討論細節的是自由現金流在貶值時受到打擊。但是,如果您在整個週期中收入增長先於通貨膨脹並且成本低於通貨膨脹,那麼您就會回到增長的另一邊。這是我們的經驗,我們今天已經看到,土耳其的收入增長快於通貨膨脹。

  • Between Europe and Africa, the synergies are very different than the one we have with in Europe. And therefore, we have talked in the past about, yes, there is cooperation of procurement, there is cooperation on large corporate customers with shared products. It's a different level of synergies than the one we have within Europe, I think is your point, and that's absolutely correct. But at the same time, once more, it is creating value.

    歐洲和非洲之間的協同作用與我們在歐洲的協同作用截然不同。因此,我們過去曾談到,是的,有採購合作,有共享產品的大型企業客戶合作。這是一種不同於我們在歐洲內部的協同作用水平,我認為這是你的觀點,這是絕對正確的。但與此同時,它又一次創造了價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Q&A session for this morning. And I would like to now hand back to Margherita for any closing remarks.

    今天上午的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把結束語交還給 Margherita。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group CEO, CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you very much. Just wanted to say thank you for being with us today.

    非常感謝。只是想說謝謝你今天和我們在一起。