Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome, and thank you for joining us for our results call. Before we take your questions, I thought I would just cover 4 key points related to our results. Firstly, our financial performance in the year was good, and our results were in line with both the expectations for the year and the medium-term financial ambition we set out earlier in this year.

早上好，歡迎您，感謝您加入我們的結果電話會議。在我們回答你的問題之前，我想我只會介紹與我們的結果相關的 4 個關鍵點。首先，我們今年的財務表現良好，我們的業績符合我們對今年的預期和我們今年早些時候制定的中期財務目標。

We grew revenues, both in Europe and Africa. We grew adjusted EBITDA by 5%. We grew adjusted free cash flow to EUR 5.4 billion and delivered a real inflection point in returns with 170 basis points increase in return on capital to 7.2%, well on the trajectory for returns to be above our weighted cost of capital.

我們在歐洲和非洲都增加了收入。我們將調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 5%。我們將調整後的自由現金流增至 54 億歐元，實現了真正的回報拐點，資本回報率提高了 170 個基點，達到 7.2%，遠高於我們的加權資本成本。

Second, this good performance is a direct result of all the execution we've been doing on our organic strategy. And alongside that long-term strategy, we have very clear operational priorities, which obviously include Germany.

其次，這種良好的表現是我們一直在執行有機戰略的直接結果。除了這個長期戰略，我們還有非常明確的運營重點，其中顯然包括德國。

Third, we're not immune to the macroeconomic challenges in Europe and Africa, but we're very well structured to deal with it. We covered a number of those actions in the presentation that give us confidence in setting our FY '23 guidance of EUR 15 billion to EUR 15.5 billion adjusted EBITDA and maintaining our adjusted free cash flow at around EUR 5.3 billion.

第三，我們不能倖免於歐洲和非洲的宏觀經濟挑戰，但我們有很好的結構來應對它。我們在演示文稿中介紹了一些行動，這些行動使我們有信心將 23 財年的指導設定為 150 億歐元至 155 億歐元的調整後 EBITDA，並將調整後的自由現金流保持在 53 億歐元左右。

And fourth, we remain fully committed to improving returns for shareholders through both a sustainable organic growth strategy and, at the same time, targeted actions to strengthen and simplify our portfolio.

第四，我們仍然完全致力於通過可持續的有機增長戰略來提高股東回報，同時採取有針對性的行動來加強和簡化我們的投資組合。

We clearly have a very full agenda, and it's a tough macroeconomic environment that we face. But both the Board and management feel very sure to drive forward on the plans that we have, both organically and for our portfolio.

我們顯然有一個非常完整的議程，這是我們面臨的一個艱難的宏觀經濟環境。但董事會和管理層都非常肯定會推動我們的計劃，無論是有機的還是我們的投資組合。

And on that, let me hand over to questions.

關於這一點，讓我提出問題。

Thank you very much. Our first question today comes from Maurice Patrick from Barclays.

非常感謝。我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊的莫里斯·帕特里克。

Maybe if you could start off with the elephant in the room, which is the progress on in-market M&A or rather the lack of progress. It's been 6 months since you've laid out your priorities for mobile-level consolidation. We haven't seen the visible progress yet. I mean the slides you do talk about German fiber and Spain options, but you seem to miss out on Spanish M&A with Orange and MÁSMÓVIL turning down Iliad. Is mobile M&A still the same focus it was in November? Maybe you can update us on your latest thinking on that.

也許如果你可以從房間裡的大像開始，那就是市場併購的進展，或者更確切地說是缺乏進展。自從您為移動級整合製定優先事項以來已經 6 個月了。我們還沒有看到明顯的進展。我的意思是，您確實在幻燈片中談到了德國纖維和西班牙的選擇，但您似乎錯過了 Orange 和 MÁSMÓVIL 拒絕 Iliad 的西班牙併購。移動併購是否仍像 11 月那樣關注？也許您可以向我們介紹您對此的最新想法。

And then in the prepared remarks, you did talk about a number of live opportunities. Where generally are we in terms of that progress?

然後在準備好的評論中，您確實談到了一些現場機會。就這一進展而言，我們一般在哪裡？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I would say, first of all, and I want to be in no doubt at all that the priorities we set out in November on the portfolio are absolutely at the forefront of everything that we are focused and are executing on, both the Board and the management team.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我想說，首先，我想毫無疑問，我們在 11 月就投資組合設定的優先事項絕對是我們關注和正在執行的所有事情的最前沿，無論是董事會還是董事會管理團隊。

I think maybe it's important just to reflect on the goals that we're trying to achieve with these moves. The first one is that we want to have strong assets in healthy markets that are producing predictable free cash flow growth for us going forward. Secondly, we want to simplify our portfolio down to assets that are really leveraging our regional scale. And third, we want to make sure that we move Vantage Towers into a co-control situation. Why co-control? We want to take it off balance sheet, have the right financial and capital structure moving forward for Vantage Towers to make the most of the growth opportunities in what is still a consolidating sector and we want to be part of shaping that consolidation.

我認為也許僅僅反思我們試圖通過這些舉措實現的目標很重要。第一個是我們希望在健康的市場中擁有強大的資產，為我們未來產生可預測的自由現金流增長。其次，我們希望將我們的投資組合簡化為真正利用我們區域規模的資產。第三，我們要確保將 Vantage Towers 轉移到共同控制的情況下。為什麼要共同控制？我們希望將其從資產負債表中剔除，為 Vantage Towers 制定正確的財務和資本結構，以充分利用仍在整合的行業中的增長機會，我們希望成為塑造整合的一部分。

Obviously, in the process, we would monetize. And that goes to the fourth point, which is we want to take proceeds from all of the actions that we do to strengthen our balance sheet going forward to ensure that we have more financial flexibility. I think we've done a good job on deleveraging the group. We were at 3x. We're now at 2.7. We're keen to bring it down to the lower end of the range at 2.5. It's one of the priorities we laid out.

顯然，在這個過程中，我們會賺錢。這就是第四點，即我們希望從我們為加強我們的資產負債表而採取的所有行動中獲得收益，以確保我們擁有更大的財務靈活性。我認為我們在去槓桿方面做得很好。我們是 3 倍。我們現在是 2.7。我們熱衷於將其降至 2.5 的範圍的下限。這是我們制定的優先事項之一。

To your point of progress in market consolidation, we highlighted the markets that we were focused on. We remain focused on all of those markets. We're in active conversations. And we have many conversations taking place as we speak. I'd say when it comes to towers, we're very much focused on that co-control model with both industrial and financial players, and there's very strong interest and engagement from many players. Clearly, if we were to ever get to the point where we were finding co-control was going to be an issue, of course, we can always monetize separately. And so therefore, we can, if you like, sequence that if we want to.

為了您在市場整合方面取得進展，我們重點介紹了我們關注的市場。我們仍然專注於所有這些市場。我們正在進行積極的對話。我們在講話時進行了許多對話。我想說的是，在塔樓方面，我們非常關注與工業和金融參與者的共同控制模式，並且許多參與者都非常感興趣和參與。顯然，如果我們發現共同控制將成為一個問題，當然，我們總是可以單獨獲利。因此，如果您願意，我們可以根據需要對其進行排序。

And then the final thing is, obviously, Egypt. We're going through local clearance. In Egypt, we look to complete that transaction by the summer. I mean clearly, these are sensitive transactions. All I can say at this point is we're actively engaged in many detailed conversations. I can't share blow-by-blow what is happening for obvious reasons. But for sure, the Board and management are very much focused on it.

最後一件事顯然是埃及。我們正在通過當地的許可。在埃及，我們希望在夏天之前完成這筆交易。我的意思很清楚，這些都是敏感交易。在這一點上，我只能說我們正在積極參與許多詳細的對話。出於顯而易見的原因，我無法逐一分享正在發生的事情。但可以肯定的是，董事會和管理層非常關注它。

Our next question today comes from Akhil Dattani from JPMorgan.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Akhil Dattani。

I had a question on Germany, if I could please, just to better understand your turnaround plans in the context, obviously, a slightly weak quarter this period. I wonder, firstly, if you could just comment on what you're doing at the moment in Germany, how far you think you are to addressing the issues in that market?

如果可以的話，我有一個關於德國的問題，只是為了更好地了解您的轉型計劃，顯然，這個時期的季度略顯疲軟。我想知道，首先，如果你能評論一下你目前在德國所做的事情，你認為你在解決這個市場的問題方面能走多遠？

And I guess as we're trying to understand the implications, could you maybe help us understand this Q4, the trough on KPIs, so will we recover from here? And then how do we think about financially? I guess mechanically, the customer losses will impact financials in the next few quarters. But maybe if you can comment on how and when you feel we'll have visibility around the trough there.

我想當我們試圖理解其影響時，你能否幫助我們理解這個第四季度，KPI 的低谷，那麼我們會從這裡恢復嗎？那麼我們如何看待財務呢？我猜機械地，客戶損失將影響未來幾個季度的財務狀況。但也許如果你能評論一下你覺得我們如何以及何時能看到那裡的低谷。

And maybe just as a bigger picture to this. Obviously, there's been CEO change in Germany. Maybe if you could just comment on the choice of your new CEO as well.

也許這只是一個更大的圖景。顯然，德國的 CEO 發生了變化。也許你也可以評論一下你的新 CEO 的選擇。

Okay. Akhil, really important question on a multipart basis. So maybe, Margherita, you can cover the second part regarding the financial outlook.

好的。 Akhil，一個非常重要的多部分問題。所以也許，瑪格麗特，你可以介紹關於財務前景的第二部分。

Let me, first of all, address the sort of operational challenges and the progress we're making. First of all, I would say, before I start, that the financial performance of Germany has been good over the course of the year. I mean very good EBITDA progress and growth, and that's been on a multiyear basis. So I think that there has been good progress financially.

首先，讓我談談運營方面的挑戰和我們正在取得的進展。首先，在我開始之前，我要說的是，德國的財務表現在這一年裡一直很好。我的意思是非常好的 EBITDA 進展和增長，而且這是多年的基礎。所以我認為在財務上取得了良好的進展。

I did call out in November that, however, commercial performance was not where we wanted it to be. And this is due to a number of factors. And if I just invest a little bit of time breaking down those factors. So first of all, during the pandemic, we really called out 2 things that we observed that caused us commercial issues. The first was, obviously, we had a huge volume increase in the pandemic on the network that added a challenge in terms of capacity in some of the clusters.

我在 11 月確實呼籲，但是，商業表現並不是我們想要的。這是由於許多因素。如果我只是花一點時間分解這些因素。因此，首先，在大流行期間，我們確實指出了我們觀察到的兩件導致我們商業問題的事情。首先，顯然，我們網絡上的大流行病數量大幅增加，這在某些集群的容量方面增加了挑戰。

I would say secondly, our footfall in retail, which is a really important channel for us, was obviously significantly down throughout the pandemic and has been slow to recover. Germany is running around, I'd say, 70% of pre-pandemic levels overall. And there's been more of a shift, I would say, to digital where I think we could strengthen more going forward.

其次，我想說的是，我們在零售業的客流量對我們來說是一個非常重要的渠道，但在整個大流行期間顯然顯著下降，而且恢復緩慢。我想說，德國的總體水平達到了大流行前水平的 70%。我想說，數字化的轉變更大，我認為我們可以在未來進一步加強。

And on top of those challenges, the third bit, which was in Q3, that we had the new telecom law and the new regulation. So customers were no longer automatically being renewed for 12 months. We had to recontract with them. We put through these changes into an IT platform with a new set of processes for customer journeys. And frankly, they're cumbersome and they did not work well on execution.

除了這些挑戰之外，第三季度，我們有了新的電信法和新法規。因此，客戶不再自動續訂 12 個月。我們不得不與他們重新簽約。我們將這些變化融入到一個 IT 平台中，並為客戶旅程提供了一套新的流程。坦率地說，它們很麻煩，而且在執行方面效果不佳。

So if I break down what those issues were, well, first of all, we had a process during the recontracting that was e-mail based. So the customer had to confirm back via e-mail. That was really clunky in terms of the interaction with the customer. We have now migrated that in the fourth quarter into a voice-based system, and that is performing.

因此，如果我分解這些問題是什麼，那麼首先，我們在重新簽約期間有一個基於電子郵件的流程。所以客戶必須通過電子郵件確認。就與客戶的互動而言，這確實很笨拙。我們現在已經在第四季度將其遷移到基於語音的系統中，並且正在發揮作用。

I'd tell you the second area was very much one of IT stability. So this was a new system we were implementing with these new rules. We had stability issues. Throughout Q4, we worked on those issues. A lot of our group team supported the Germany team to recover the situation. And in April, we're seeing availability of those systems now greater than 99.5%, which is the targeted level, i.e. less than 2 hours of downtime for maintenance each month.

我會告訴你第二個領域是 IT 穩定性。所以這是我們使用這些新規則實施的新系統。我們遇到了穩定性問題。在整個第四季度，我們都在處理這些問題。我們團隊的很多人都支持德國隊挽回局面。在 4 月，我們看到這些系統的可用性現在超過 99.5%，這是目標水平，即每個月的維護停機時間少於 2 小時。

And then the third thing was that we had very heavy fraud mechanisms and a number of technical releases go at the same time. And that created us a technical backlog. And so we have been working through that technical backlog, and we're about 50% of the way through, and we will finish off all the various releases in the first half of the year.

然後第三件事是我們有非常嚴重的欺詐機制，並且同時發布了許多技術版本。這給我們帶來了技術積壓。所以我們一直在處理技術積壓，我們已經完成了大約 50%，我們將在今年上半年完成所有各種版本。

So I stand back. It's not what we wanted. We're saying that it was very much an operational execution issue in Germany. We've got the remedial actions underway. This is on top of all of the network capacity upgrades we've been doing on our network over the course of the year. And now we believe that we will have resolved any capacity issues on our network by the summer. We have a few clusters left to work on.

所以我退後了。這不是我們想要的。我們說這在德國很大程度上是一個運營執行問題。我們正在採取補救措施。這是我們一年來在網絡上進行的所有網絡容量升級的基礎。現在我們相信我們將在夏天解決我們網絡上的任何容量問題。我們還有幾個集群需要處理。

So I'd say we're very much calling Q4 as the commercial low point in terms of customer losses, and you will see gradual improvement in our commercial KPIs over the course of H1. Margherita, financially?

所以我想說，我們非常稱第四季度為客戶損失方面的商業低點，您將看到我們的商業 KPI 在上半年逐步改善。瑪格麗特，經濟上？

On the financial side, different situation from the commercial side. As Nick has just said, commercially, we will see gradual improvement from there. And it's a result of the action as well as the mechanical effect of the pull forward of terms generated by the new telco law, which will wind down in the course of the next few quarters.

在財務方面，與商業方面的情況不同。正如尼克剛才所說，在商業上，我們將看到從那裡逐漸改善。這是行動的結果，也是新電信法產生的條款提前的機械效應的結果，新的電信法將在接下來的幾個季度結束。

On the financial side, you've seen the consistency of our growth in Germany so far. We still need to see the KPIs' impact going through the financials. And therefore, what you will see in the near term is a further slowdown of the fixed broadband revenue growth. It has slowed down in Q4 and will slow down further going forward.

在財務方面，到目前為止，您已經看到了我們在德國增長的一致性。我們仍然需要看到 KPI 對財務的影響。因此，您將在短期內看到固定寬帶收入增長的進一步放緩。它在第四季度有所放緩，並將進一步放緩。

The point that is worth making in terms of overall financial performance of Germany is that this is one of our growth drivers, but the 3 orders -- growth drivers that we have in Germany are performing very well. You have seen our mobile service revenue growth. We expect this to continue well. We have seen Vodafone business accelerating. We are growing more than 3% in business. Again, this trend will continue.

就德國的整體財務表現而言，值得一提的是，這是我們的增長動力之一，但我們在德國擁有的三個訂單——增長動力表現非常好。您已經看到我們的移動服務收入增長。我們預計這將繼續良好。我們已經看到沃達丰的業務在加速發展。我們的業務增長超過 3%。同樣，這種趨勢將繼續下去。

And then finally, if I move from service revenue to cost, you have seen us calling the achievement of the cost and CapEx synergy of the Liberty acquisition over 2 years in advance of the original targets. And we now have further opportunities that will materialize in the coming years to go after. So 3 out of 4 working well.

最後，如果我從服務收入轉向成本，你會看到我們稱收購 Liberty 的成本和資本支出協同效應比原始目標提前了 2 年。我們現在有更多的機會，這些機會將在未來幾年實現。因此，四分之三的工作良好。

Yes. And Akhil, just to your final point, which was on choice of CEO. I'm delighted to have Philippe join us. Philippe is a strong inspiring leader. He has strong knowledge both in telco and technology, which I think is increasingly important going forward.

是的。還有 Akhil，就您的最後一點來說，是關於 CEO 的選擇。我很高興菲利普加入我們。菲利普是一位強有力的鼓舞人心的領導者。他在電信和技術方面擁有豐富的知識，我認為這在未來變得越來越重要。

He has that commercial agility, so bringing together sales, marketing, brand, products, propositions together for the customer in a great experience. I mean Microsoft is known for that. And I think that we will benefit from that. And he also knows how to leverage group efficiencies and scale advantages. So I think that he will have a big impact.

他具有商業敏捷性，因此可以將銷售、營銷、品牌、產品、主張結合在一起，為客戶帶來絕佳的體驗。我的意思是微軟為此而聞名。我認為我們將從中受益。他還知道如何利用團隊效率和規模優勢。所以我認為他會產生很大的影響。

We've also strengthened the wider team, leadership team in Germany. So it isn't a case of waiting for Philippe to come on board. We're working with Hannes on a very smooth transition. We strengthened the team. We clearly understand the issues. We've got clear plans and we're in execution and Philippe will just take that forward.

我們還加強了更廣泛的團隊，即德國的領導團隊。所以這不是等待菲利普加入的情況。我們正在與 Hannes 合作進行非常順利的過渡。我們加強了團隊。我們清楚地了解這些問題。我們有明確的計劃，我們正在執行中，Philippe 將繼續推進。

Our next question today comes from Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs.

我們今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Andrew Lee。

I just wanted to slightly follow up on Akhil's question and just ask around what your guidance for EBITDA implies for service revenue growth across the rest of the group and particularly Europe.

我只是想稍微跟進 Akhil 的問題，並詢問您對 EBITDA 的指導對集團其他部門，特別是歐洲的服務收入增長意味著什麼。

And then just as a side question to that, I wonder if you could talk about what you're factoring in and what your ambitions are as to your ability to mitigate cost inflation with price rises.

然後作為一個附帶問題，我想知道你是否可以談談你正在考慮的因素以及你的雄心壯志是什麼，你有能力通過價格上漲來緩解成本通脹。

Sure. On the guidance. Let me try and maybe first paint the picture of what is our -- I would describe it as mid-case expectation for service revenue growth in Europe and broader EBITDA performance. I'd say, first, as Nick was mentioning, we are pleased with our consistent service revenue growth so far in FY '22. As we look into FY '23, there is a degree of macro uncertainty for the industry overall. For us, specifically, I think the factors you need to think about in terms of evolution of our service revenue growth are 3.

當然。關於指導。讓我嘗試一下，也許首先描繪一下我們的情況——我將其描述為對歐洲服務收入增長和更廣泛 EBITDA 表現的中期預期。我想說，首先，正如尼克所提到的，我們對 22 財年迄今為止的持續服務收入增長感到滿意。當我們審視 23 財年時，整個行業存在一定程度的宏觀不確定性。對我們來說，具體來說，我認為在我們的服務收入增長演變方面需要考慮的因素是 3。

Number one, what we have just discussed with Akhil, we will see service revenue growth slowing down in Germany in the near term as a result of the weak fixed broadband performance. This will be offset in the U.K. where you should expect an ongoing acceleration of service revenue growth. What we have seen in the U.K. is very strong commercial momentum. We have connected over 0.5 million contract customers in consumer in the last year, lowest churn on record. And also, of course, from April, we are seeing now the benefits in our revenue growth of the pricing measures around inflation.

首先，我們剛剛與 Akhil 討論過，由於固定寬帶性能疲軟，我們將看到德國的服務收入增長在短期內放緩。這將在英國被抵消，您應該期望服務收入增長持續加速。我們在英國看到的是非常強勁的商業勢頭。去年，我們連接了超過 50 萬消費者合同客戶，這是歷史上最低的客戶流失率。當然，從 4 月份開始，我們現在看到了圍繞通貨膨脹的定價措施對收入增長的好處。

And then finally, the third point to keep in mind also supportive to growth is the impact the European recovery funds are going to have in Southern Europe. We were explaining a little bit the key elements in the presentation earlier. I would say, particularly in Spain, we are seeing strong success in the context of the digital toolkit investment allocation from the government. You know that they are putting over EUR 3 billion on SME digitization. The first EUR 0.5 billion is being distributed now. And we are really punching above our weight in terms of market share of the connection on this. And this is going to support an acceleration of service revenue growth also in Spain in the coming quarters.

最後，要記住的第三點同樣支持增長的是歐洲復甦基金將對南歐產生的影響。我們在之前的演示文稿中解釋了一些關鍵要素。我想說，特別是在西班牙，我們看到政府在數字工具包投資分配方面取得了巨大成功。您知道他們在中小企業數字化方面投入了超過 30 億歐元。現在正在分配第一筆 5 億歐元。就這方面的連接市場份額而言，我們確實超出了我們的體重。這將支持西班牙未來幾個季度服務收入增長的加速。

Net-net, if you take all this, at the midpoint of our guidance range, we expect Europe to continue growing in FY '23. And of course, broadening the picture, good growth also in Africa and in the group as a whole.

Net-net，如果你把這一切都考慮在內，在我們指導範圍的中點，我們預計歐洲將在 23 財年繼續增長。當然，拓寬視野，非洲和整個集團也有良好的增長。

On the cost front, as if I move to EBITDA, you have 2 offsetting elements. On one hand, our, I would argue, strong efficiency delivery machine is well set to exceed another EUR 300 million of net OpEx reduction in Europe with our own initiatives. However, the net is not met anymore because we have exceptional inflation coming the other way, particularly on energy and wage inflation that will compensate for that.

在成本方面，就像我轉向 EBITDA 一樣，您有 2 個抵消要素。一方面，我認為，我們強大的效率交付機器將通過我們自己的舉措在歐洲再減少 3 億歐元的淨運營支出。然而，這個淨值不再滿足，因為我們將面臨異常通脹，特別是能源和工資通脹將彌補這一點。

I'd say we're not immune from the overall macro pressures as you can see. But we are resilient, which is why in all scenarios in our guidance, we're guiding for growth on EBITDA, 2% at the midpoint of the range, and another year of return on capital acceleration, which is clearly very important.

我想說，正如你所看到的，我們並不能免受整體宏觀壓力的影響。但我們是有彈性的，這就是為什麼在我們的指導中的所有情況下，我們都在指導 EBITDA 的增長，在該範圍的中點 2%，以及資本加速回報的另一年，這顯然非常重要。

You mentioned the role of pricing in all this. I said the pricing will be supportive in the U.K., but let me say that we have pricing initiatives going on across the board in Europe. It's really critical at this point in time for the sector. We have said before that we have included CPI plus pricing mechanism in 5 markets. So U.K. and Ireland have already gone live in April, and we will see the orders following in the rest of the year. But we have also reviewed all our promotions and discounts across our markets in Europe. And in the markets without CPI plus, we are working on the base in different ways. I think a good example of that could be what we are doing in Italy. As we speak, we have done a radical simplification of our back book portfolio. And we are in the progress of migrating our customers to the plans, which are more suitable for them, which will be both increasing transparency and be ARPU accretive for us in the end.

你提到了定價在這一切中的作用。我說定價將在英國提供支持，但我要說的是，我們在歐洲全面開展定價計劃。在這個時間點對於該行業來說真的很關鍵。我們之前說過，我們在 5 個市場中包含了 CPI 加定價機制。因此，英國和愛爾蘭已經在 4 月上線，我們將在今年餘下時間看到訂單。但我們也審查了我們在歐洲市場的所有促銷和折扣。在沒有 CPI plus 的市場中，我們以不同的方式在基礎上工作。我認為我們在意大利所做的就是一個很好的例子。正如我們所說，我們已經對我們的背書組合進行了徹底的簡化。我們正在將我們的客戶遷移到更適合他們的計劃中，這將增加透明度並最終為我們增加 ARPU。

So a range of options and really critical moment, I think, in terms of delivering this through for us.

因此，我認為，就為我們實現這一目標而言，有一系列選擇和真正的關鍵時刻。

Yes. That's really clear and concise. Just a tiny follow-up. Just when you mentioned at the midpoint, you expect European growth. I know you guys like getting tens of basis points of here or there. So I'm presuming when you say European growth at midpoint, that's more than 10 or 20 basis points of growth.

是的。這真的很簡潔明了。只是一個小小的跟進。就在你在中點提到的時候，你預計歐洲會增長。我知道你們喜歡在這里或那裡獲得幾十個基點。所以我假設當你說歐洲增長處於中點時，增長超過 10 或 20 個基點。

Yes. If that's what you're looking for, yes. I think what is going to have an impact around this midpoint, if I think about the range overall, is going to be a combination of macro. If you want to build a downside case, you think inflation affecting consumption can't rule out further lockdowns for pandemic reasons. At the -- on the positive end, I would like to consider pricing. I think all the actions we're undertaking could have a further push and also the European recovery fund we mentioned earlier. I think the governments are seeing the success, and they could allocate even more funding than they have just done to SME digitization, which would be positive for us.

是的。如果這就是你要找的，是的。如果我考慮整體範圍，我認為在這個中點附近會產生影響的將是宏觀的組合。如果你想建立一個下行案例，你認為影響消費的通脹不能排除由於大流行原因進一步封鎖。在積極的一面，我想考慮定價。我認為我們正在採取的所有行動以及我們之前提到的歐洲復甦基金都會進一步推動。我認為政府看到了成功，他們可以為中小企業數字化分配比剛才更多的資金，這對我們來說是積極的。

Our next question today comes from James Ratzer from New Street.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 New Street 的 James Ratzer。

If possible, could I come back to Germany again. Would just love if possible to get an update on your thinking around potential FTTH build-out plans. You mentioned some stuff on this in the presentation. I think in November, you talked about 2/3 of your homes passed being in housing associations. I think at that stage, you indicated about 1/3 might be interested. And it seems from the language now you've tightened that up a little bit talking about specific larger housing associations being interested. So it just seems to get a kind of update on the scope potentially that, that JV might include. And you talk about attractive business case. Does that imply ARPU uplift here? And you talk about potential for our footprint expansion, so how large might that be?

如果可以的話，我能不能再回到德國。如果可能的話，我很想了解您對潛在 FTTH 擴建計劃的看法。您在演示文稿中提到了一些關於此的內容。我想在 11 月，您談到了 2/3 的房屋通過了住房協會。我認為在那個階段，你表示大約 1/3 可能有興趣。從現在的語言看來，您在談論感興趣的特定大型住房協會時已經收緊了一點。因此，它似乎只是對合資企業可能包括的範圍進行了某種更新。你談論有吸引力的商業案例。這是否意味著 ARPU 的提升？你談到我們的足跡擴張的潛力，那可能有多大？

And I mean I think if this is smaller in scope now, you're giving a bigger vote of confidence, i.e., to DOCSIS 4 going forward. So it would be great to get an update on that topic, please.

我的意思是我認為，如果現在範圍更小，您將給予更大的信任票，即對 DOCSIS 4 的未來發展。因此，如果能獲得有關該主題的最新信息，那就太好了。

Yes. James, important topic. Maybe I'll let Margherita just touch on sort of business case drivers. But let me just talk about a little bit of the engagement with the housing association. So as we've said for the last 2 earnings releases, we've been engaged with the housing associations really around the conversation of the new regulation coming in, in July 24, which is around the elimination of collective TV billing. And in that process, we've been sort of expanding on our road map of the cable upgrade plan that we plan to do. But in the process, we also ask housing associations, are you interested in fiber to the building as well?

是的。詹姆斯，重要的話題。也許我會讓 Margherita 談談一些商業案例驅動因素。但是讓我談談與住房協會的一些接觸。因此，正如我們在最近兩次收益發布中所說的那樣，我們一直在與住房協會就 7 月 24 日即將出台的新法規進行對話，該法規是關於取消集體電視計費的。在這個過程中，我們一直在擴展我們計劃進行的電纜升級計劃的路線圖。但在此過程中，我們也詢問房屋協會，您是否也對建築纖維感興趣？

And what I would say is very few so far have said I definitely want fiber to the building. I mean we have not had an overwhelmingly, yes, I want fiber. We've had many, many more actually say, now you've explained the cable upgrade plan, that will suffice for us. And there is a logic to that because in the end, we have a strong network. We have an upgrade pass. They like the fact that there's no disturbance to the building or outside of the building for that upgrade path.

到目前為止，我要說的很少有人說我絕對希望將光纖連接到建築物中。我的意思是我們沒有壓倒性的，是的，我想要纖維。實際上，我們已經有很多很多人說，現在您已經解釋了電纜升級計劃，這對我們來說就足夠了。這是有邏輯的，因為最終，我們有一個強大的網絡。我們有升級通行證。他們喜歡這樣一個事實，即升級路徑不會對建築物或建築物外部造成乾擾。

However, the majority still and we have contacted now, what, 8,000 of our largest housing associations, which represents about 20% of the households covered. Still the majority have yet to make a decision. But what they're doing is they're having a conversation with us. And what's sort of coming out of that conversation is very much, you are our natural partner. At some point in the future, I may want to upgrade my building. I like your upgrade of your cable. That might be absolutely all I need. But there could be the option of going to fiber when I upgrade and refurbish my overall building in the future.

但是，大多數人仍然和我們現在聯繫過，什麼，我們最大的 8,000 個住房協會，它們代表了大約 20% 的家庭。仍然大多數人尚未做出決定。但他們正在做的是他們正在與我們進行對話。從那次談話中可以看出，你是我們天生的合作夥伴。在未來的某個時候，我可能想升級我的建築。我喜歡你的電纜升級。這可能就是我所需要的。但是，當我將來升級和翻新我的整體建築時，可能會選擇使用光纖。

So what I'd say is I think it's a very encouraging conversation. So from the conversations and the analysis, what we said is we think that there's an opportunity over and above the upgrade plan we're going to do to our normal cable network, which we talked about, high split going to DOCSIS 4.0 over a period of time.

所以我想說的是，我認為這是一次非常鼓舞人心的對話。因此，從對話和分析來看，我們所說的是，我們認為除了我們將對我們的正常有線網絡進行的升級計劃之外，還有一個機會，我們談到了在一段時間內向 DOCSIS 4.0 進行高拆分的時間。

We've said, shall we do a targeted JV FTTB build to the scope of about 4 million to 7 million households? And what we would do is primarily target our MDUs, the large housing associations, and the surrounding area because, obviously, it's more efficient for us to do a build of that nature.

我們已經說過，我們是否應該針對大約 400 萬到 700 萬戶家庭進行有針對性的合資 FTTB 建設？我們要做的主要是針對我們的 MDU、大型住房協會和周邊地區，因為顯然，我們進行這種性質的構建會更有效。

And what we're engaged with at the moment is a number of players externally that bring 2 things. Number one, they bring build capabilities. So they have a build engine that can supplement us and our execution so that we have velocity and speed of doing that program. And the second thing is that, obviously, financing at low affordable cost. And we're doing a JV because, obviously, this means that it's completely off balance sheet from a Vodafone perspective.

我們目前參與的是一些外部玩家，他們帶來了兩件事。第一，它們帶來了構建能力。所以他們有一個構建引擎，可以補充我們和我們的執行，這樣我們就有執行該程序的速度和速度。第二件事是，顯然，以低廉的可負擔成本融資。我們正在建立一家合資企業，因為很明顯，這意味著從沃達丰的角度來看，它完全脫離了資產負債表。

So I think we've got a good combination, good overall upgrade path for the 24 million households covered, targeted FTTB build in a JV model, and got we've some very strong potential partners that we're currently engaged with and we're advancing in those talks as we speak. I don't know if you want to talk about the business drivers.

所以我認為我們有一個很好的組合，為覆蓋的 2400 萬戶家庭提供了良好的整體升級路徑，有針對性地建立了合資模式的 FTTB，並且我們有一些非常強大的潛在合作夥伴，我們目前正在與之合作，我們在我們發言時，這些會談正在推進。我不知道你是否想談談業務驅動因素。

Sure. From the financial perspective, clearly, our cable road map is well integrated into our long-range plan organically off balance sheet when we have been looking at what could be the best solution for those housing associations that may want over the longer term to have fiber. We have concluded that there is a business case essentially built on 4 elements. The first one clearly is increased penetration and responding to those customers. But there is also the opportunity to up-sell towards higher-value services. There is an opportunity to go off footprint. Nick was saying we will base the rollout around anchor housing associations. But we have then catchment areas around those, and this can be on footprint, but also off footprint. So that's new demand for us.

當然。從財務角度來看，很明顯，當我們一直在尋找那些可能希望長期擁有光纖的住房協會的最佳解決方案時，我們的有線電視路線圖已經很好地融入了我們的長期計劃。 .我們得出的結論是，有一個業務案例基本上建立在 4 個要素之上。第一個顯然是提高滲透率並響應這些客戶。但也有機會向更高價值的服務追加銷售。有機會走出足跡。尼克說我們將圍繞錨定住房協會推出。但是我們在這些周圍有集水區，這可以在足跡上，也可以在足跡外。所以這對我們來說是新的需求。

And then finally, there are synergies, as you know, with the mobile network as well. All in all, we have concluded on this 4 to 7 size, but the situation will be refined further as we progress with our discussions.

最後，如您所知，與移動網絡也有協同作用。總而言之，我們已經就這個 4 到 7 的規模得出結論，但隨著我們討論的進展，情況將進一步完善。

One very quick follow-up. Of the 4 to 7, how much of that would be new build versus existing households?

一個非常快速的跟進。在 4 到 7 個中，與現有家庭相比，其中有多少是新建的？

We need to still decide. As you can see, it's a range. But definitely, there will be a portion of new builds in it.

我們仍然需要做出決定。如您所見，它是一個範圍。但可以肯定的是，其中會有一部分新版本。

Our next question today comes from John Karidis from Numis.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Numis 的 John Karidis。

I just wanted to ask a few questions, short ones, about the United Kingdom specifically, please. Firstly, when it comes to fiber infrastructure and competitive infrastructure, do you feel that there's likely to be enough competitive infrastructure out there for you to continue to have reasonably well-priced network access? So for example, are you confident that CityFibre has the funding and the expertise to build several more millions of FTTP homes?

我只是想問幾個簡短的問題，特別是關於英國的問題。首先，在光纖基礎設施和競爭性基礎設施方面，您是否認為有足夠的競爭性基礎設施讓您繼續擁有價格合理的網絡接入？例如，您是否相信 CityFibre 擁有建造更多數百萬個 FTTP 家庭的資金和專業知識？

Secondly, very quickly, can I just confirm that talk about Vodafone acquiring TalkTalk is just not credible?

其次，很快，我可以確認有關沃達丰收購 TalkTalk 的說法不可信嗎？

And then thirdly, if you were to consolidate the mobile market in the United Kingdom, I'd love to know why is it that you trust Ofcom to do the right thing, given that earlier this year, they published a think piece in which they said that in their view, Vodafone U.K. earned 0 return on capital employed. Since 2017, EE earned 20% and even Three had earned a much higher return on capital than Vodafone U.K.

第三，如果你要鞏固英國的移動市場，我很想知道為什麼你相信 Ofcom 會做正確的事情，因為今年早些時候，他們發表了一篇思考文章，其中他們表示在他們看來，沃達丰英國公司的資本回報率為 0。自 2017 年以來，EE 賺取了 20%，甚至 3 的資本回報率也比沃達丰英國公司高得多。

Okay, John, let me go through the 3 components. So first of all, in terms of access to competitive fixed infrastructure, actually, I really feel that we're in an excellent position. We are growing extremely fast on fixed broadband. We are, if you like, building a base that increasingly is attractive to an infrastructure player to have onboard to drive their returns and economics.

好的，約翰，讓我來看看這 3 個組件。所以首先，在獲得有競爭力的固定基礎設施方面，實際上，我真的覺得我們處於非常有利的位置。我們在固定寬帶上的增長速度非常快。如果您願意，我們正在建立一個對基礎設施參與者越來越有吸引力的基礎，以推動他們的回報和經濟。

We have BT, obviously, is building at speed. It's a regulated rate. But they're engaging with Ofcom to say, could we offer larger discounts to encourage more people to come on to our network like we have contingent-type models in Europe. And I'm very much supporting that agenda as well.

我們有 BT，顯然，正在快速建設。這是一個受管制的利率。但他們正在與 Ofcom 合作說，我們是否可以提供更大的折扣以鼓勵更多人加入我們的網絡，就像我們在歐洲擁有臨時模型一樣。我也非常支持該議程。

You've got Virgin Mobile who said they want to open their network. They're keenly engaged to say, could they get some anchor tenant? So CityFibre is building out as well. So I think we have a number of choices. It's a very active market. Pricing is getting keener and we're seen as an attractive banker.

你有維珍移動，他們說他們想開放他們的網絡。他們熱衷於說，他們能找到一些主力租戶嗎？因此，CityFibre 也在建設中。所以我認為我們有很多選擇。這是一個非常活躍的市場。定價越來越敏銳，我們被視為有吸引力的銀行家。

I'd say secondly, in terms of TalkTalk, look, I think we've made clear what our priorities are. Our priorities are in-market mobile consolidation, and we have a big enough agenda already in other activities. So I think that speaks volumes.

其次，我想說的是，就 TalkTalk 而言，看，我認為我們已經明確了我們的優先事項。我們的優先事項是市場內移動整合，我們在其他活動中已經有了足夠大的議程。所以我認為這很重要。

And then third, in terms of in-market consolidation, and let's call Ofcom CMA. I think CMA is clearly an important factor here. I think you have to look back at the U.S. as an example where T-Mobile did the merger, went down out to 3 players. They increased their investment, and then you saw the other 2 big players increasing their investment.

第三，就市場整合而言，我們稱之為 Ofcom CMA。我認為 CMA 顯然是這裡的一個重要因素。我認為你必須回顧一下美國，作為 T-Mobile 合併的一個例子，只有 3 名玩家。他們增加了投資，然後你看到其他 2 大玩家增加了投資。

So at this time when governments are looking for strong, resilient and secure networks. Is it better to have 3 strong networks that are resilient with scaled industrial players? I think, increasingly, governments, politicians, regulators are understanding the benefits of that and the vulnerabilities of fragmentation. And therefore, they want to ensure that the digital infrastructure that underpins the country is going to allow global competitiveness.

因此，此時政府正在尋找強大、有彈性和安全的網絡。擁有 3 個能夠適應規模化工業參與者的強大網絡會更好嗎？我認為，越來越多的政府、政治家、監管機構正在理解這樣做的好處和碎片化的脆弱性。因此，他們希望確保支撐該國的數字基礎設施能夠實現全球競爭力。

And therefore, I think the agenda has very much and the narrative has very much moved on. Of course, it needs to be supported by the fact pattern. And therefore, I'm not saying all combinations will be treated the same way, but I think we have an opportunity in the U.K.

因此，我認為議程有很多，而且敘述也有很大進展。當然，它需要事實模式的支持。因此，我並不是說所有的組合都會受到同樣的對待，但我認為我們在英國有機會。

Sorry, may I follow up very briefly?

抱歉，我可以簡單地跟進一下嗎？

Of course.

當然。

Given that Ofcom is an evidence-based regulator and they start the conversation by saying that on our calculations, they say, you Vodafone have earned nothing. Three has earned more than you. And EE has earned 20% return on capital employed. Doesn't that sort of concern you about how they will approach any deal that you might bring to them over the next few months, hopefully?

鑑於 Ofcom 是一個以證據為基礎的監管機構，他們在談話開始時說，根據我們的計算，他們說，你沃達丰一無所獲。三比你賺的多。 EE 已獲得 20% 的資本回報率。你難道不擔心他們將如何處理你在未來幾個月內可能帶給他們的任何交易，希望如此嗎？

John, I'm not quite understanding your line of argument. Because if we've earned nothing in terms of returns and Three is below their weighted cost of capital, therefore, both are in an unsustainable position as subscale players. And therefore, a combination would make a stronger player in the marketplace.

約翰，我不太明白你的論點。因為如果我們在回報方面一無所獲，並且 Three 低於他們的加權資本成本，那麼兩者作為小規模參與者都處於不可持續的位置。因此，組合將成為市場上更強大的參與者。

So I'm not disputing that EE has got scale and earns a return. That's a good example of someone that has reached industrial scale in the market. So we've always said local scale matters, and then we add regional scale on top. But you can't make up for subscale local.

因此，我並不否認 EE 已經獲得了規模並獲得了回報。這是在市場上達到工業規模的一個很好的例子。所以我們一直說地方規模很重要，然後我們在上面加上區域規模。但是你不能彌補當地的小規模。

Our next question today comes from Emmet Kelly from Morgan Stanley. Amit, please go ahead.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Emmet Kelly。阿米特，請繼續。

Yes. So my question, please, is on the Italian market. If you could maybe just give us a few updated thoughts on what you're seeing in Italy. Clearly, the competitive backdrop is still pretty intense there and maybe some emerging macro headwinds. But it looks like your business is quite stable at the moment on the mobile side and improving on fixed line. So could you just say a few words on how you see the outlook in Italy for 2023, please?

是的。所以我的問題是關於意大利市場的。如果您可以就您在意大利看到的情況向我們提供一些最新的想法。顯然，那裡的競爭背景仍然相當激烈，也許還有一些新興的宏觀逆風。但看起來您的業務目前在移動端相當穩定，在固網方面有所改善。那麼，您能否就您如何看待意大利 2023 年的前景說幾句話？

Your home market?

你的國內市場？

Sure. I need to say we are pleased with our execution in Italy. You mentioned that you have seen in the numbers, we have closed the year in which, despite the competitive environment, we have, at the same time, increased service revenue market share and delivered stable EBITDA once you exclude the exceptional impact of the settlement from a legal perspective. So good results achieved by continuing to outperform on both service revenue and EBITDA all the established players in the market.

當然。我需要說我們對我們在意大利的執行感到滿意。你提到你已經從數字中看到，我們已經結束了這一年，儘管競爭環境，我們同時增加了服務收入市場份額並提供了穩定的 EBITDA，一旦你排除了和解的特殊影響一個法律的觀點。通過在服務收入和 EBITDA 方面繼續超越市場上所有老牌企業，取得瞭如此好的成績。

Just focusing on the outlook from here. Our growth has the benefit of growing wholesale in the past 12 months. This benefit won't recur. And of course, the market will remain competitive. But if I think about the puts and takes, we now have the benefit of the European recovery fund. You will hear us use these words many times today. Spain has just allocated EUR 0.5 billion. Italy has allocated EUR 600 million in vouchers for connectivity, so impacting directly the telcos, operators over the next couple of years. And we are performing very well there.

只關注這裡的前景。我們的增長得益於過去 12 個月批發業務的增長。這種好處不會再次出現。當然，市場將保持競爭力。但是，如果我考慮看跌期權，我們現在可以從歐洲復甦基金中受益。今天你會聽到我們多次使用這些詞。西班牙剛剛撥款 5 億歐元。意大利已撥出 6 億歐元用於連接的代金券，因此在未來幾年內直接影響電信公司和運營商。我們在那裡的表現非常好。

Stepping back, I think I would like to call out that in terms of key for our relatively strong performance in Italy, business is a key factor. You know that it's 1/3 of our service revenue there. And we were gaining market share and performing well even before the European recovery fund, particularly through digital. So this will accelerate.

退一步說，我想指出，就我們在意大利表現相對強勁的關鍵而言，業務是一個關鍵因素。你知道這是我們服務收入的 1/3。甚至在歐洲復甦基金出現之前，我們就已經獲得了市場份額並且表現良好，尤其是通過數字技術。所以這將加速。

And then in the very contested consumer environment, we are also competing well with our dual-brand strategy, and we are now expanding into FWA.

然後在競爭激烈的消費環境中，我們也在與我們的雙品牌戰略展開激烈競爭，我們現在正在向 FWA 擴張。

And then if I move to EBITDA, I can't leave EBITDA loan. You know that Italy is considered one of the most efficient operators in the industry in Europe, and we will continue to work on our efficiency levers, digitization and the like. And that's what has allowed us to deliver stable EBITDA as well in this context. So I would say, really good performance in Italy at the moment.

然後，如果我轉向 EBITDA，我就不能離開 EBITDA 貸款。您知道意大利被認為是歐洲行業中效率最高的運營商之一，我們將繼續致力於提高效率槓桿、數字化等方面的工作。這就是讓我們在這種情況下也能提供穩定 EBITDA 的原因。所以我想說，目前在意大利的表現非常好。

Yes. And maybe just one build on the comment you made in an earlier question regarding sort of pricing and what we're doing with the base within Italy. We're actually doing quite a bold move. So of course, companies like ours get a lot of legacy built up over time, price plans, et cetera. That adds a lot of complexity to the operation. We have a really strong management team under Aldo. And he really said, look, we really need to try and find a way of radically simplifying down. So we did a lot of cohort analysis of customers, price plans, products, services, et cetera. And what we're doing is a radical simplification by migrating the whole base onto a narrower set of plans. As we execute that through on top of the IT transformation we're doing, we will have a lot cleaner estate moving forward. And I think that will mean that we will be a lot more agile, a lot simpler business and drive further efficiencies, as Margherita has said, on top of what is already a very efficient operation. So that execution is going according to business plan. We've been working on it for probably, what, the last 9 months in terms of the planning and the execution, and we are rolling that through.

是的。也許只是您在之前的問題中關於定價類型以及我們在意大利境內的基地所做的評論的基礎上的一個。我們實際上是在做一個相當大膽的舉動。因此，當然，像我們這樣的公司隨著時間的推移積累了很多遺產，價格計劃等等。這給操作增加了很多複雜性。在 Aldo 的領導下，我們擁有一支非常強大的管理團隊。他真的說，看，我們真的需要嘗試找到一種從根本上簡化下來的方法。因此，我們對客戶、價格計劃、產品、服務等進行了大量的隊列分析。我們正在做的是通過將整個基地遷移到一組更窄的計劃來進行徹底的簡化。當我們在我們正在做的 IT 轉型之上執行它時，我們將擁有更多更清潔的資產。我認為這將意味著我們將變得更加敏捷，業務更加簡單，並進一步提高效率，正如瑪格麗特所說，在已經非常高效的運營之上。所以執行是按照業務計劃進行的。在規劃和執行方面，我們可能已經在過去 9 個月裡一直在努力，並且我們正在努力實現這一目標。

If that is successful, which we've got confidence we will see that through, I think there's applications throughout many of our markets in Europe where we could deploy that methodology going forward. So yes, it's an example of how we learn as a group, how we drive synergies and stay commercially relevant in individual markets.

如果這是成功的，我們有信心看到這一點，我認為我們在歐洲的許多市場都有應用程序，我們可以在這些應用程序中部署該方法。所以，是的，這是我們如何作為一個團隊學習、如何推動協同效應並在各個市場保持商業相關性的一個例子。

If I just ask a quick follow-up on Italy. You did decline the offer that Iliad made for your business there, I guess, because of the price that was offered. I'm just wondering, are there alternative deals such as a JV where you might see merit that you might consider in the future? Because it looks like the market is ripe for repair at some point in the future.

如果我只是要求對意大利進行快速跟進。我猜你確實拒絕了伊利亞特為你的生意提供的報價，因為所提供的價格。我只是想知道，是否有替代交易，例如合資企業，您可能會看到將來可能考慮的優點？因為看起來市場在未來某個時候可以修復。

I agree with you. I think there are too many players in that market. Pricing is at an unsustainable level. You're talking currently in mobile for 1 gig, EUR 0.15 on an average usage. And then you look at Iliad's convergence, fixed pricing and you don't make any money on that. So you stand back from that and say things will have to change. People are going to have to force to collaborate, combine, do versions. And we are very pragmatic and open and have been. And we remain actively engaged with players to find better routes to more sustainable returns in that market.

我同意你的看法。我認為這個市場的參與者太多了。定價處於不可持續的水平。您目前在移動設備上談 1 gig，平均使用 0.15 歐元。然後你看看伊利亞特的融合、固定定價，你並沒有從中賺到任何錢。所以你退後一步，說事情必須改變。人們將不得不強制協作、組合、製作版本。我們非常務實和開放，並且一直如此。我們將繼續與參與者積極接觸，以在該市場尋找更好的途徑來獲得更可持續的回報。

Our next question today comes from Polo Tang from UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Polo Tang。

Just have one question just about Etisalat. Were you surprised that they took a 9.8% stake? From your conversations with them, what do you think their intentions are for Vodafone?

就 Etisalat 提出一個問題。你對他們持有 9.8% 的股份感到驚訝嗎？從您與他們的談話中，您認為他們對沃達丰的意圖是什麼？

Well, Polo, I got the call on Saturday from Hatem and he explained that he had taken the 9.8% position. And in that call, he was at pains to go through the rationale and all the elements of the communication that would be going out. I mean he really wanted to stress the fact that this was a passive investment, supportive of the Board, management strategy in its execution, that all the things we were doing on the portfolio were the things that they believe were the right things to do. Clearly, we know them. They know us as industry players. And therefore, I really think that there's an opportunity to develop a commercial collaboration moving forward. I'm sure there's areas in procurement, in R&D, technology that we can do, maybe shared service centers. There's opportunities, and we will explore those opportunities. And look, we look forward to developing a long-term relationship with them.

好吧，波羅，週六我接到了哈特姆的電話，他解釋說他佔據了 9.8% 的位置。在那次電話會議中，他煞費苦心地解釋了將要進行的溝通的基本原理和所有要素。我的意思是他真的想強調這樣一個事實，即這是一項被動投資，支持董事會，執行管理戰略，我們在投資組合中所做的所有事情都是他們認為正確的事情。顯然，我們認識他們。他們知道我們是行業參與者。因此，我真的認為有機會發展商業合作向前發展。我確信在採購、研發、技術領域我們可以做，也許是共享服務中心。有機會，我們將探索這些機會。看，我們期待與他們建立長期的關係。

Our next question today comes from Nick Delfas from Redburn.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Nick Delfas。

Just 2 questions on hedging. At what point would you decide whether to hedge for H2, not that I envy you that choice? And secondly, on Turkey, you had about EUR 300 million of free cash flow in FY '22. Are you able freely to convert that to euros or sterling at the moment? And do you anticipate any difficulties in FY '23?

只有 2 個關於對沖的問題。你會在什麼時候決定是否對沖 H2，而不是我羨慕你的選擇？其次，在土耳其，您在 22 財年擁有約 3 億歐元的自由現金流。您現在可以自由地將其轉換為歐元或英鎊嗎？您預計 23 財年會遇到什麼困難嗎？

Both for you.

兩個都給你。

Yes. Energy, we are, at the moment, 75% hedged on FY '23. And effectively, we have always had rolling hedges over time. And we found ourselves pre-Ukraine crisis very well covered, I would say, all the way to December. But of course, hedges rolling off after that. Since the Ukraine crisis, we have not changed much in terms of coverage. And you're right, it's not an easy decision to make on when and how to intervene. We are monitoring that very closely. But I would say the bulk of our efforts now is not going on to the hedging strategy. It's going on to alternative mitigation options.

是的。能源，目前，我們在 23 財年對沖了 75%。實際上，隨著時間的推移，我們一直都有滾動對沖。我們發現自己在烏克蘭危機前得到了很好的保障，我想說，一直到 12 月。但當然，在那之後，樹籬就會滾落。自烏克蘭危機以來，我們在報導方面沒有太大變化。你是對的，決定何時以及如何進行干預並不是一個容易的決定。我們正在密切關注這一點。但我想說，我們現在的大部分努力都不是對沖策略。它正在尋找替代緩解方案。

You may have seen us recently announcing a big PPA in the U.K. with Centrica Solar. We can get really good condition on long-term stable pricing for renewables. And we're stepping this up all across Europe.

您可能已經看到我們最近與 Centrica Solar 在英國宣布了一項大型 PPA。我們可以在可再生能源的長期穩定定價方面獲得非常好的條件。我們正在整個歐洲加大力度。

And then the second aspect where we are really focused on is the interaction between energy initiatives and the European recovery funds and whether there can be support for structural energy consumption reductions. And of course, everything that goes together with the general sort of taxes and subsidies around energy, we think this is more important structurally. So that's for the energy side. Clearly, it would be a headwind. In this fiscal year, we are sizing it at current pricing at just under EUR 200 million, so materially in our overall equation.

然後我們真正關注的第二個方面是能源計劃與歐洲復甦基金之間的相互作用，以及是否可以支持結構性能源消耗減少。當然，所有與能源相關的一般稅收和補貼相結合，我們認為這在結構上更為重要。所以這是能源方面的。顯然，這將是一個逆風。在本財年，我們按當前定價計算其規模略低於 2 億歐元，因此在我們的整體等式中非常重要。

Turkey. Management of Turkey, clearly always from our side, we look at it in hard currency. You know our principles, you need to grow revenues ahead of inflation and cost below inflation. And we've been pretty successful if you look backwards to another big case would have been Egypt a few years ago in ensuring that we come out of the crisis with a better cash flow position than the one we went in.

火雞。土耳其的管理層，顯然總是站在我們這邊，我們用硬通貨來看待它。你知道我們的原則，你需要在通貨膨脹之前增加收入，並且成本低於通貨膨脹。如果你回顧一下幾年前的另一個大案例，那就是埃及，我們已經非常成功，確保我們以比我們進入時更好的現金流狀況走出危機。

Turkey has been able to maintain operating free cash flow stable. This year, we don't have particular issues on the technical front to your specific point. But we are really all hands on deck to ensure that also looking forward we can drive the strategy I was describing.

土耳其一直能夠保持穩定的經營自由現金流。今年，對於您的具體點，我們在技術方面沒有特別的問題。但我們真的全力以赴，以確保我們也能在未來推動我所描述的戰略。

So if I take just the example of pricing, which is really critical, you will have seen our trading pricing 33x in 6 months. The last time was March, 30%. So very active in ensuring that in the, let's say, midterm, we come out on the other side with stronger cash flow generation.

因此，如果我僅舉一個非常關鍵的定價示例，您將看到我們的交易定價在 6 個月內翻了 33 倍。最後一次是三月，30%。因此非常積極地確保在中期，我們以更強的現金流產生。

And it's probably worth just noting, and of course, it is quite beneficial that the other 2 major players are government-owned entities because then they take a view of the overall industry and what's healthy for the overall industry. And I think that's healthy for us.

值得一提的是，當然，其他兩個主要參與者是政府擁有的實體是非常有益的，因為這樣他們就會了解整個行業以及整個行業的健康狀況。我認為這對我們來說是健康的。

And just to follow up on the hedging. So EUR 200 million is the headwind without Q4. So if you have roughly EUR 200 million a quarter of cost and it inflated by 100% for Q4 FY '23, that would be in addition to the EUR 200 million? And that's the uncertainty that you've tried to bake into your guidance, I suppose.

只是為了跟進對沖。所以 2 億歐元是沒有第四季度的逆風。因此，如果您有大約 2 億歐元的四分之一成本，並且在 23 財年第四季度膨脹了 100%，那麼這將是 2 億歐元的補充嗎？我想，這就是你試圖融入指導的不確定性。

Yes. So the Centrica case includes the EUR 200 million. And if you take the forward rates of energy today, that's the effect you have on the full year.

是的。因此，Centrica 案包括 2 億歐元。如果您採用今天的遠期能源費率，這就是您對全年的影響。

And that's EUR 200 million. Okay. Understood. Yes.

那是2億歐元。好的。明白了。是的。

If prices were to go up further, that's where the range comes into play or go down because I think, over time, you could also see that.

如果價格進一步上漲，這就是區間發揮作用或下降的地方，因為我認為，隨著時間的推移，你也可以看到這一點。

We have time for one more question today, which will come from David Wright from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

今天我們有時間再回答一個問題，來自美銀美林的大衛賴特。

Guys, hopefully, you can hear me and everything is working. So it was just a question really on the guidance and specifically the midterm guidance that you've reiterated in the presentation. And I guess what would be quite useful to just understand the kind of time line around that. Because if it was given at full year '21 and say it was a 3-year outlook, then you've done 5%. I think the guidance for full year '22 is sort of 2%. So to get back to that kind of mid-single level, you're going to have to do high single digit. And even if we were to extend it another year or so, it feels like you need to achieve a high single-digit run rate, especially given some of those hedging pressures are also going to be present in full year '24.

伙計們，希望你們能聽到我的聲音，一切正常。所以這只是一個關於指導的問題，特別是你在演示文稿中重申的中期指導。我猜想了解圍繞它的那種時間線會非常有用。因為如果它是在 21 年全年給出的，並說這是一個 3 年的展望，那麼你已經完成了 5%。我認為 22 年全年的指導是 2%。所以要回到那種中單水平，你將不得不做高個位數。即使我們將其再延長一年左右，感覺您需要實現高個位數的運行率，特別是考慮到其中一些對沖壓力也將在 24 年全年出現。

But I guess I'm just wondering how you bridge that gap to the high single-digit EBITDA growth, which is the asset that kind of gets you there. And I speak with Germany, obviously, a little slower this year, some TV headwinds, et cetera. So if you could just outline that guidance more specifically and the building blocks to actually hit it.

但我想我只是想知道你如何彌合這一差距與高個位數 EBITDA 增長，這是讓你到達那裡的資產。我與德國談話，顯然，今年慢了一點，一些電視逆風等等。因此，如果您可以更具體地概述該指南以及實際實現它的構建塊。

Sure. So starting from the logic of our midterm ambition, starting point FY '21. Time horizon, as we said last year, was 3 to 5 years in terms of what midterms mean. And then we were very clear already last year that it wasn't meant to be a sort of year-by-year reference point. But the progression wouldn't necessarily be linear.

當然。因此，從我們的中期雄心的邏輯出發，以 FY '21 為起點。正如我們去年所說，就中期而言，時間跨度是 3 到 5 年。然後我們在去年就已經非常清楚，這並不是一種逐年參考點。但進展不一定是線性的。

In terms of how do we stand against that today and your question on bridging, well, first of all, we have just closed the first year in line or exceeding the progression that we have set for ourselves, growth in Europe and Africa, mid-single-digit EBITDA growth. And the return on capital, you have seen the big step-up that we have had in year 1, which was 170 basis point.

就我們今天如何反對這一點以及您關於過渡的問題而言，首先，我們剛剛結束了第一年，或者超過了我們為自己設定的進展，歐洲和非洲的增長，中期個位數的 EBITDA 增長。而資本回報率，你已經看到了我們在第一年的大幅提升，即 170 個基點。

Clearly, FY '23 is likely to be slower if we take the midpoint of the EBITDA guidance that we have given, which is around 2% for the reasons we have just discussed, including energy.

顯然，如果我們採用我們給出的 EBITDA 指導的中點，23 財年可能會變慢，由於我們剛剛討論的原因（包括能源），該中點約為 2%。

However, let me also take the opportunity to flag that if you look at our free cash flow growth, the circa EUR 5.3 billion expected into FY '23 is actually underlying representing a 10% increase over the 2 years. So if you think about the mid-single-digit free cash flow growth at the midpoint of our guidance, we are there. Why that is? It's because, as we have flagged earlier this morning, we had a deferral of a EUR 200 million payment across '22 and '23 in taxes in Germany. So underlying effectively, we will be moving from EUR 5 billion to EUR 5.5 billion, which is bang on the midpoint of our midterm ambition. And then as we look at return on capital, again, now we are at 7.2 pretax, guiding for a further increase above that. So I think we are well positioned to continue in that trajectory.

然而，讓我也藉此機會指出，如果你看看我們的自由現金流增長，預計到 23 財年的大約 53 億歐元實際上是在 2 年內增長 10% 的基礎。因此，如果您考慮到我們指導中點的中個位數自由現金流增長，我們就在那裡。為什麼會這樣？這是因為，正如我們今天早上早些時候指出的那樣，我們推遲了 22 年和 23 年在德國繳納的 2 億歐元稅款。因此，在有效的基礎上，我們將從 50 億歐元增加到 55 億歐元，這對我們中期目標的中點產生了影響。然後，當我們再次查看資本回報率時，現在我們的稅前值為 7.2，指導進一步增加。所以我認為我們有能力繼續沿著這條軌跡前進。

Okay. But I understand the free cash flow, but how do you get to the high single-digit EBITDA?

好的。但我了解自由現金流，但你如何達到高個位數的 EBITDA？

I think that there is a range of, how can I say, options on our -- the outlook may turn on EBITDA for the years beyond FY '23. This year, we have had these impacts, for example, for inflation. You need to assess will that last forever or will at some point, for example, the energy price switch and move into the other direction. I think here, we are talking about the midterm and we're also talking about ranges. And therefore, first, we need to see how we close '23. I think we have a range around that already. And then we need to see how it evolves longer term.

我認為，在我們的 23 財年之後，前景可能會轉向 EBITDA，我怎麼說呢？今年，我們已經產生了這些影響，例如通貨膨脹。您需要評估這種情況會永遠持續下去還是會在某個時候持續下去，例如，能源價格轉變並轉向另一個方向。我認為在這裡，我們正在談論中期，我們也在談論範圍。因此，首先，我們需要看看我們如何關閉 23 年。我認為我們已經有一個範圍。然後我們需要看看它是如何長期發展的。

And of course, we got EU recovery funds. We've got further digital transformation. There's many levers that we have delivered in FY '22 that would be very focused on outer years as well.

當然，我們得到了歐盟的複蘇基金。我們進行了進一步的數字化轉型。我們在 22 財年提供了許多槓桿，這些槓桿也非常關注外部年份。

Can I just sneak a quick one. I was just very intrigued yesterday, I think, as were most investors, by the shift from Vantage into this sort of hybrid reseller model in Germany potentially on the build-to-suit. And I'm just wondering, was that a push by you guys to kind of keep the foot down on 5G? And essentially, they kind of weren't able to deliver that so they've had to move to the reseller model? Is it sort of Vodafone driven that they've had to slightly shift that strategy?

我可以偷偷快一點嗎？昨天我很感興趣，我認為，就像大多數投資者一樣，從 Vantage 轉變為德國這種混合經銷商模式可能是量身定制的。我只是想知道，這是你們推動 5G 的努力嗎？本質上，他們有點無法交付，所以他們不得不轉向經銷商模式？是不是受沃達丰的驅動，他們不得不稍微改變這一戰略？

David, it's very much a case of Vodafone has coverage and performance obligations that came with the spectrum. And that's where the 5,500 towers came from or BTSs came from. What we were really doing was saying to Vantage, look, you have the option to go source them up to 1,200 if you need to moving forward. So it's optionality. It's not an obligation. They don't have to do it. Obviously, it depends on the ease at which they can find locations and do builds. Obviously, you know Germany is notoriously slow as a country to get permits, approvals and build through. It takes nearly 2 years. The government and ourselves are working to bring that target down. But we just want to give them operational flexibility to do it.

大衛，這在很大程度上是沃達丰的一個案例，它具有頻譜附帶的覆蓋範圍和履行義務。這就是 5,500 座塔或 BTS 的來源。我們真正做的是對 Vantage 說，看，如果你需要繼續前進，你可以選擇將它們採購到 1,200 個。所以它是可選的。這不是義務。他們不必這樣做。顯然，這取決於他們找到位置和進行構建的難易程度。顯然，你知道德國作為一個國家在獲得許可、批准和建設方面的速度是出了名的慢。需要將近2年的時間。政府和我們自己正在努力降低這個目標。但我們只是想讓他們在操作上具有靈活性。

So given that was the last question, thank you very much for joining Margherita and myself. We had a good financial year in FY '22 with strong growth in many of the parameters and, importantly, return on capital employed. Our guidance points to growth moving forward even with a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. And we're very clear on both our operational priorities and our portfolio priorities and remain firmly focused on executing through. So we look forward to updating you in future quarters on our progress. Thank you.

鑑於這是最後一個問題，非常感謝您加入 Margherita 和我自己的行列。我們在 22 財年度過了一個不錯的財政年度，許多參數都實現了強勁增長，更重要的是，所使用的資本回報率也實現了強勁增長。我們的指引指出，即使在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景下，增長也會向前發展。我們非常清楚我們的運營優先事項和我們的投資組合優先事項，並始終堅定地專注於執行。因此，我們期待在未來幾個季度向您更新我們的進展。謝謝你。